English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 31/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
God Of mercies and all consolation, consoles us in all our affliction, so that
we may be able to console those who are in any affliction
Second Letter to the Corinthians 01/03-07/:”Blessed be
the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ, the Father of mercies and the God
of all consolation, who consoles us in all our affliction, so that we may be
able to console those who are in any affliction with the consolation with which
we ourselves are consoled by God. For just as the sufferings of Christ are
abundant for us, so also our consolation is abundant through Christ. If we are
being afflicted, it is for your consolation and salvation; if we are being
consoled, it is for your consolation, which you experience when you patiently
endure the same sufferings that we are also suffering. Our hope for you is
unshaken; for we know that as you share in our sufferings, so also you share in
our consolation.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 30-31/2023
Report: Pro-Bitar judges mull that he work from Jdeideh
Oueidat seeks arrest of money changers involved in currency speculation
Zoaiter, Khalil file new recusal lawsuit against Bitar
Jumblat to meet Berri, his son to meet al-Rahi
Paris meeting to discuss 'settlement' as Qatar talks to Iran, Hezbollah
Kanaan urges state, BDL to cooperate with Budget Committee
Report: Hopes on Paris meeting over Lebanon 'exaggerated'
Oil prices witness additional drop in Lebanon
National News Agency honors its longtime journalist Maroun Amil on his
retirement, Ministry officials hail Amil’s sense of professionalism
Berri discusses situation with Al-Hakim, broaches educational matters with MP
Chehayeb, Bahia Hariri, meets MP Bizri
Asmar calls for strike on February 8
Makary broaches public affairs with Syrian Chargé d'Affaires, visits Antonine
Technical Institute in Dekwaneh
Mikati meets Housing Bank chairman, MPs al-Murr, Khoury, National Balance
Gathering delegation
Judge Bitar is right: Lebanon’s entire leadership is guilty/Baria Alamuddin/Arab
News/January 30, 2023
Where it is Hard to Live/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 30/2023
Titles For The
Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 30-31/2023
Systemic Discrimination: Comparing America’s Blacks to Egypt’s
Christians/Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/January 30, 2023
Blinken Reaffirms Need for Two-State Solution after Talks with Netanyahu
In Israel, disposable plastics trigger culture war, test PM
11 dead in Syria drone strikes on pro-Iran groups
Crimea will never again be part of Ukraine - Croatian president
Ukrainian troops are calling the US military in the middle of shootouts with
Russia for help fixing their artillery
Boris Johnson says Putin threatened him with a missile strike in an
'extraordinary' phone call weeks before Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Russian Shelling Kills 5 in Tough Eastern Ukraine Combat
Zelenskiy Visits Southern Ukraine, Meets Danish Prime Minister
More Russian forces moved to Kursk region on Ukrainian border -governor
Iran Summons Senior Ukraine Diplomat over Comments on Drone Strike
Reports of Torture, Unfair Trials in Iran Trigger Fresh Alarm Over Fate of
Protesters
Iran Receives Messages from Nuclear Deal Parties via Qatar
Russia and Iran are combining their banking systems to get around being banned
from SWIFT
Bomb Hits Bus Transporting Police in South Syria, Wounding 15
Egypt Central Bank: Pound Slips to New Low against Dollar
Türkiye to Host Summit of Gas Buyers, Sellers Next Month
Suicide bomber kills 44, wounds over 150 at Pakistan mosque
Quebec government wants Amira Elghawaby to resign as federal representative to
combat Islamophobia, just days into her new job
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 30-31/2023
The dire consequences of Europe’s hesitation on designating Iran’s IRGC/Dr.
Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 30, 2023
Crazy Optimism About China's Economy/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone
Institute./January 30/2023
Why the EU should designate the IRGC a terrorist organization/Dr. Majid
Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 30, 2023
The Next Debate Over Arming Ukraine Is Here—and It’s About Fighter Jets/Armani
Syed/Time/January 30, 2023
The Iranian Monarchists Do Not Represent The 'Multinational Iran'/Himdad
Mustafa/MEMRI Daily Brief No. 452/January 30/2023
West’s Iran dilemma means standoff likely to persist/Chris Doyle/Arab
News/January 30, 2023
Arab Gulf States Shift Toward More Harmonious Relations/Simon Henderson/The
Washington Institute./January 30/ 2023
The EU Can, and Should, Designate the IRGC as a Terrorist Group/Matthew Levitt/The
Washington Institute/January 30/2023
on January 30-31/2023
Report: Pro-Bitar judges mull that he work from
Jdeideh
Naharnet/January 30, 2023
Higher Judicial Council chief Judge Suheil Abboud and a group of judges who
support Beirut port blast investigator Judge Tarek Bitar “have started
implementing decentralization in the judiciary,” al-Akhbar newspaper reported on
Monday. Abboud and this group of judges “have started mulling the idea that
Bitar practice his work from an office in Jdeideh’s Justice Palace, in an
implication that this place is located in a Christian area and no one will dare
to attack it,” al-Akhbar quoted prominent judicial sources as saying. The
sources added that “this week will witness a strong continuation of the
confrontation.”
The newspaper also quoted sources close to State Prosecutor Judge Ghassan
Oueidat as saying that the latter is “determined to go to the end in the recusal
of Bitar.”Bitar took Lebanon by surprise last Monday when he resumed his
investigation after a 13-month hiatus, charging eight new suspects including
high-level security officials and Lebanon's top prosecutor Oueidat. Bitar said
he based his decision on a legal review that he himself conducted, with a source
close to him saying the judge "is convinced it's crucial to hold officials
accountable and finish his mission."But others in Lebanon point to foreign
interference in the case. A top security official said that the Lebanese
judiciary had come under U.S. pressure to free detainees in the case, including
dual Lebanese-U.S. citizen Ziad al-Ouf. The official said an American lobby
group was pushing for sanctions against Bitar, Oueidat and another top judge,
should they fail to comply. The week before reopening the case, Bitar had met
with two French judges for hours about his investigation. The delegation
suggested Bitar should resume work, arguing that holding suspects in detention
without trial is a human rights violation. Bitar's surprise move sparked a
judicial battle with Oueidat, putting Lebanon's notoriously politicized justice
system to yet another test. Oueidat retaliated by charging the judge with
"usurping power" and insubordination, and slapped Bitar with a travel ban. A
defiant Bitar meanwhile told AFP he would not step down, adding that Oueidat
"has no authority" to intervene in the case.
Oueidat seeks arrest of money changers involved in
currency speculation
Naharnet/January 30, 2023
State Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oueidat on Monday sent a memo to Financial
Prosecutor Judge Ali Ibrahim asking him to “immediately” order the arrest of the
money changers and speculators who are contributing to “the collapse of the
national currency.”The development comes ahead of a scheduled meeting for the
central bank in which measures to improve the Lebanese pound’s value are
expected to be taken. The pound, which had already lost more than 95 percent of
its value since 2019, plummeted to new lows against the dollar in recent days,
trading for nearly LBP 65,000 against the dollar on the black market. Since
2019, Lebanon has been in the throes of an economic crisis dubbed by the World
Bank as one of the worst in recent global history, pushing much of the
population into poverty. As the local currency nosedived, fuel prices have
soared, reaching about $19 for 20 liters of petrol.
Zoaiter, Khalil file new recusal lawsuit against
Bitar
Naharnet/January 30, 2023
MPs Ghazi Zoaiter and Ali Hassan Khalil on Monday filed a new recusal lawsuit
against Beirut port blast investigator Judge Tarek Bitar.
The lawsuit was filed before the Criminal Court of Cassation, with the two
lawmakers citing “legitimate suspicion.”LBCI television reported that Khalil has
also filed a lawsuit against Bitar before the Judicial Inspection Commission,
accusing him of “willful misconduct” in the port blast case. Al-Jadeed
television meanwhile reported that caretaker Justice Minister Khoury will return
to Beirut Monday evening in order to "resume his work tomorrow morning, address
the rift between judges and find an exit for the Beirut port file."Bitar took
Lebanon by surprise last Monday when he resumed his investigation after a
13-month hiatus, charging eight new suspects including high-level security
officials and Lebanon's top prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat. The judge also scheduled
interrogation sessions for Zoaiter and other figures who had been previously
charged. Bitar said he based his decision on a legal review that he himself
conducted, with a source close to him saying the judge "is convinced it's
crucial to hold officials accountable and finish his mission." But others in
Lebanon point to foreign interference in the case. A top security official said
that the Lebanese judiciary had come under U.S. pressure to free detainees in
the case, including dual Lebanese-U.S. citizen Ziad al-Ouf. The week before
reopening the case, Bitar had met with two French judges for hours about his
investigation. The delegation suggested Bitar should resume work, arguing that
holding suspects in detention without trial is a human rights violation. Bitar's
surprise move sparked a judicial battle with Oueidat, putting Lebanon's
notoriously politicized justice system to yet another test. Oueidat retaliated
by charging the judge with "usurping power" and insubordination, and slapped
Bitar with a travel ban. A defiant Bitar meanwhile told AFP he would not step
down, adding that Oueidat "has no authority" to intervene in the case.
Jumblat to meet Berri, his son to meet al-Rahi
Naharnet/January 30, 2023
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat will continue his presidential
file efforts and will visit Speaker Nabih Berri in Ain el-Tineh in the coming
hours, MTV reported on Monday. Jumblat will also dispatch his son, Democratic
Gathering chief MP Taymour Jumblat, to meet with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi
in Bkirki, the TV network said. Media reports have said that Jumblat and the
Shiite Duo are leading “strenuous attempts to break the presidential
deadlock.”Jumblat is “seeking to limit the nominations to two candidates who can
be promoted as settlement candidates,” the reports said.
Paris meeting to discuss 'settlement' as Qatar talks
to Iran, Hezbollah
Naharnet/January 30, 2023
The agenda of the upcoming Paris meeting on Lebanon has “changed” and it might
last for more than one day if the need arises, an informed political source
said. “Collective and bilateral meetings will be held among the delegations of
the participating countries with the aim of reconciling stances to be able to
devise a politically clear work plan for resolving the Lebanese crisis,” the
sources told Annahar newspaper in remarks published Monday. “The countries that
will take part in the Paris meeting know that they cannot devise a comprehensive
solution plan for the Lebanese situation without agreeing with Iran, which is
something that will happen after the meeting, knowing that there are contacts
with Tehran that are being conducted by Qatar in order to reach an agreement
over Lebanon,” the daily added. “Qatar will continue the contacts with Iran and
Hezbollah to reach an agreement over the Lebanese files, especially the (new)
president, knowing that the Paris meeting will not tackle names” of candidates,
the political source said.
Kanaan urges state, BDL to cooperate with Budget
Committee
Naharnet/January 30, 2023
The Finance and Budget Committee convened Monday to study the draft law on
"restoring the balance of financial regularity." MP Ibrahim Kanaan stated after
the meeting that all the required data is still missing, asking the government,
the Banking Control Commission and the Central Bank to provide the needed
information and figures. Kanaan also urged the caretaker Prime Minister and the
ministers of finance and economy to cooperate. The discussion will resume next
Wednesday and the MPs are leaning towards forming a subcommittee in order to
intensify the discussions. "The Lebanese must be informed in a transparent way
about the capabilities, assets, and responsibilities of the state, the central
bank, and the banks," Kanaan said. He stressed that the Central Bank is
responsible for giving the final numbers, and the state and the banks are
responsible for announcing their assets and "what is left from the depositors'
money.""We can not put all the burden on the shoulders of the depositors and the
Lebanese," Kanaan said.
Report: Hopes on Paris meeting over Lebanon
'exaggerated'
Naharnet/January 30, 2023
The hopeful expectations regarding a five-party meeting over Lebanon in Paris
are "exaggerated", prominent political sources told al-Akhbar newspaper, in
remarks published Monday. According to the sources, the hopes that the meeting
next week between the U.S., France, Qatar, Egypt and KSA will reach a settlement
that would help Lebanon get out of its political and financial crisis, are "overrated.""The
problem is that the participants have different interests and conditions,
especially Saudi Arabia as it refuses any settlement against its interests," the
sources said. They added that this "hard-line position" will hinder reaching a
solution regarding the presidential file, the International Monetary Fund
agreement, and financial and political reforms in Lebanon.
Oil prices witness additional drop in
Lebanon
NNA/January 30, 2023
Oil prices in Lebanon have witnessed an additional drop on Monday as the price
of the can of gasoline (95 octanes) has decreased by LBP 20,000 and (98 octanes)
has decreased by LBP 20,000. The price of diesel has decreased by LBP 20,000,
and the gas canister has decreased by LBP 13,000.
Consequently, the new prices are as follows:
95 octanes: LBP 1048000
98 octanes: LBP 1073000
Diesel: LBP 1095000
Gas: LBP 667000
National News Agency honors its longtime journalist
Maroun Amil on his retirement, Ministry officials hail Amil’s sense of
professionalism
NNA/January 30, 2023
A ceremony was held on Monday at the National News Agency’s “May 25” Hall, to
honor NNA longtime journalist Maroun Amil, on the occasion of his retirement.
The ceremony took place in the presence of the Caretaker Minister of
Information, Ziad Makary, Information Ministry’s Director General, Dr. Hassan
Falha, National News Agency (NNA) Director Ziad Harfouche, Diwan Department Head
Walid Al-Flaiti, NNA Editor-in-Chief Rana Shehabedine, heads of departments and
editorial staff. In their delivered words, Minister Makary, Director General Dr.
Falha and NNA Director Harfouche hailed the retired colleague's career path and
his high sense of professionalism, dedication and responsibility in carrying out
his duties throughout his years of service at the NNA, even during the most
difficult circumstances.
Berri discusses situation with Al-Hakim, broaches
educational matters with MP Chehayeb, Bahia Hariri, meets MP Bizri
NNA/January 30, 2023
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday received at the second presidency in Ain
al-Tineh, "Democratic Gathering" MP Akram Chehayeb, and President of the Hariri
Foundation for Sustainable Human Development, former MP Bahia Hariri, over the
country’s general conditions, in addition to educational-related matters.
Speaker Berri also received former Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammed Ali al-Hakim,
in the presence of the Chargé d'affaires of the Embassy of Iraq in Beirut, Amin
Abdul-Ilah Al-Nasrawi, where they discussed the general situation in Lebanon and
the region, and the bilateral relations between the two countries.This
afternoon, Berri received MP Dr. Abdel Rahman al-Bizri, with whom he discussed
the latest political developments and developmental affairs.
Asmar calls for strike on February 8
NNA/January 30, 2023
Head of the General Labor Confederation, Beshara Asmar, announced that the body
will call for a general strike nationwide on Wednesday, February 8, with the
participation of the land transport sector, the independent businesses' unions,
the governmental hospitals and the teachers leagues. Asmar's announcement
followed a meeting he held with the land transport unions, chaired by Bassam
Tleis, at the GLC headquarters.
Makary broaches public affairs with Syrian Chargé
d'Affaires, visits Antonine Technical Institute in Dekwaneh
NNA/January 30, 2023
Caretaker Minister of Information, Ziad Makary, on Monday received in his office
at the Ministry, the Chargé d'Affaires of the Syrian Embassy in Lebanon, Consul
Ali Dagman. The pair reportedly discussed public affairs. On the other hand,
Caretaker Minister Makary visited the Antonine Technical Institute in Dekwaneh,
where he was received by the Director of the Institute, Father Charbel Bou
Abboud, the Advisor to the President of the “Arab Volunteer Union” Charbel
Kabalan,, and a number of the Institute’s professors and administrators. After
touring the various departments and premises of the Institute and having a
closer look at its accomplishments and achiements, Minister Makary highlighted
the role of the Ministry of Information in shedding light on the positive
aspects and the various activities undertaken in Lebanon, notably the cultural
diversity in the country, especially in these distressing circumstances.
"One of the roles of the Ministry is to encourage and shed light on positive
aspects in the country," he concluded.
Mikati meets Housing Bank chairman, MPs al-Murr,
Khoury, National Balance Gathering delegation
NNA/January 30, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati met, at the Grand Serail on Monday, with
chairman of the Housing Bank Antoine Habib, and member of the Board of Directors
Tawfic Naji.
Speaking to reporters following the meeting, Habib stressed that the payment of
the housing loans is still in the Lebanese pound, adding that there is no fear
for the future of the Housing Bank's institution.
Premier Mikati also received at the Grand Serail MP Michel al-Murr, who said on
emerging that he discussed with Premier Mikati the daily livelihood affairs and
ways to enhance the capabilities of municipalities so that they can perform
their duties and tasks in serving people and residents, especially in light of
the unprecedented difficult circumstances. MP al-Murr also indicated that talks
touched on the presidential deadline issue. Mikati also met with "Strong
Republic" bloc MP Elias Khoury, who said after the meeting that they tackled the
current developments, adding that discussions also touched on the importance of
the issue of the security plan that is currently being implemented in Tripoli
and the need to develop it. Among Premier Mikati’s visitors for today had been a
delegation of the "National Balance Gathering”.
Judge Bitar is right: Lebanon’s entire leadership is
guilty
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/January 30, 2023
The shocking thing about the latest legal maneuverings in Lebanon is how blatant
they were in their illegality and partisanship; no one any longer even hides
their attempts to subvert the rule of law.
Following the post-2019 collapse of political and financial institutions,
Lebanon’s judiciary remained as a pillar that appeared to be a glimmer of hope.
This had already suffered a mortal blow with the Rafik Hariri tribunal, when it
became obvious that a particular demographic considered itself to enjoy total
legal immunity. Hezbollah demonstrated that it was willing to smash Lebanon over
our heads at the mere threat of the arrest of one of its most lowly officials.
In recent days Lebanon’s judiciary has become an object of ridicule, as judges
leveled retaliatory charges against each other and arbitrarily ordered the
releases of detainees. The stuttering investigation into the 2020 Beirut port
explosion had already demonstrated that the judiciary was a plaything in the
hands of powerful figures, who could gleefully toss spanners into the legal
works to hamstring procedures indefinitely.
Many citizens perceive investigating judge Tarek Bitar’s actions against
powerful officials as heroic. One widow who lost her husband in the blast said:
“This is really bold and courageous ... you feel like he’s on a solo mission.”
Bitar is disconcerting for the corrupt ruling classes because he doesn’t follow
their rules. He declines invitations to social occasions to avoid perceptions of
influence, and doesn’t accept calls from those seeking favors. He now lives
under armed guard. People speculate about when he’ll be assassinated.
The apocalyptic port blast on Aug. 4, 2020, killed at least 218 people and
injured about 7,000, destroyed 77,000 homes, caused $15 billion of damage,
displaced over 300,000, and left at least 80,000 children homeless. The known
facts indicate criminal failings through the entire rotten system, up to the
president and the prime minister’s office. President Michel Aoun was shown to
have been aware that a quantity of volatile ammonium nitrate sufficient to
destroy half the capital was mouldering away in a warehouse, but didn’t lift a
finger to ensure that action was taken to monitor it and keep it safe.
Aoun and the political classes demonstrated scant sympathy for the blast
victims, who were left to fend for themselves. However, these politicians have
gone to immense efforts to protect their own backs, shamefully bickering with
each other while the country burns. Their obstructionism includes filing more
than 25 requests to dismiss judges leading the investigation, and Hezbollah
blocking Cabinet sessions for months seeking to quash the probe. The Interior
Ministry failed to execute Bitar’s arrest warrants. Chief prosecutor Ghassan
Oueidat reacted to finding himself on Bitar’s summons sheet by filing
retaliatory charges against Bitar. Sizable demonstrations have called for
Oueidat’s resignation.
Reformist MPs visited the office of caretaker Justice Minister Henri Khoury to
discuss the port probe, only for these public representatives to be beaten up by
unidentified thugs in the minister’s presence. One MP said: “These aren’t
guards, these are the dogs of the justice minister. We were talking about the
law in a civilized way.”President Michel Aoun was shown to have been aware that
a quantity of volatile ammonium nitrate sufficient to destroy half the capital
was mouldering away in a warehouse, but didn’t lift a finger to ensure that
action was taken to monitor it and keep it safe.
Amid these exacerbated tensions, the soldiers and tanks massed around the Beirut
districts of Ain El-Remmaneh and Chiyah are horribly reminiscent of the outbreak
of the 1975 civil war. Compelling evidence indicates that the shipload of
chemicals was deliberately diverted to Lebanon and influence was exerted to
impound it in port facilities under the control of Hezbollah. The explosion
could have been several times worse, because about 80 percent of the 2,754 tons
of ammonium nitrate had already been stolen by the time of the explosion.
There is little doubt about which Lebanese entity would want to control and use
such vast quantities of explosive chemicals. Significant quantities are thought
to have been diverted to the Syrian arena for use in crude bombs to
indiscriminately kill and maim civilians. This investigation has never been just
about negligence, but mass murder. No wonder Lebanon’s entire senior echelon has
unified ranks against it.
Tensions are escalating as conspiracy theories proliferate via media organs on
various sides. “Tarek Bitar has gone mad,” ran the headline of the pro-Hezbollah
newspaper Al-Akhbar, which accused him of acting on “American orders, with
European judicial support.” MP Ghazi Zoaiter, after being summoned for
interrogation, called Bitar “mentally ill.”Many commentators take it for granted
that the blast was a deliberate Israeli strike against Hezbollah assets, and
thus conclude that Israel and the Americans are of one mind with Hezbollah in
seeking to kill the investigation. There is intense media speculation about the
failure of Western states to provide satellite imagery showing the moment of the
explosion.
I have always been tremendously proud to be part of the Lebanese success story
of globe-straddling achievement. Everywhere I went, people would joyfully relate
their experiences of visiting Lebanon and expound on what a gorgeous, vibrant
country it was. In recent years, my reaction has turned to mortification as
people expressed their condolences at the country’s “tragic death.” My response
has always been to brush this aside and express my expectation that Lebanon
would soon be back on its feet again — but it has become increasingly impossible
to put a brave face on things. The collapsing education sector will have
long-term consequences for restoring Lebanon’s reputation as a center of
entrepreneurship, talent and innovation. There was a Lebanon before, and a
vastly diminished Lebanon after the 2020 explosion, which reduced one of
Beirut’s most beautiful sightseeing and shopping districts to a bomb site. The
blast symbolized everything that is wrong with Lebanon — the corruption,
misgovernance, impunity and pre-eminence of terrorist groups. It should
therefore also be a symbol for our unfinished revolution against these evils. By
filing charges against senior officials, Bitar is not an out-of-control judge;
rather he is signaling that the entire complicit, corrupt leadership deserves to
be brought to account. Instead of cynically waiting for him to fail, Lebanon’s
citizens should take to the streets en masse and demand that this revolution is
followed through to its logical conclusion.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.
Where it is Hard to Live
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 30/2023
The anxious young man invited his parents to a frank discussion. He said that he
loves Lebanon dearly, but decided to quit it.
He explained that the decision was painful for him and the family, but that he
made it after much thought. He said he would knock on the doors of all
embassies, without exception, and that if it was not possible, he would not
hesitate to jump into one of the “death boats.”
The father tried to contain the situation, especially after tears filled his
wife’s eyes. He said that Lebanon is a difficult country in a difficult region,
and that it has gone through complicated stages, but had regained its breath and
life.
The young man was not convinced. He said he was not willing to waste years of
his life waiting for the headless republic to find a president. He added that he
would not waste his life waiting for the fate of Judge Bitar to be clarified and
the port explosion to be investigated.
He said he would not wait for electricity to return to the capital, which has
been taken over by darkness, both literally and metaphorically. He added that he
would not be able to secure a livelihood in the dreadful forest. He expressed
his disappointment with the recent elections, which ended with the re-election
of those whom many citizens deem as major perpetrators.
The mother was very scared of what she had just heard. She spent her life
raising this boy and hoping that he would build a good future, especially since
his academic results qualify him for that.
She was afraid of the feelings of isolation and loneliness she would experience
when age attacked a house that had severed its last ties with the future. She
reflected on her son’s statement that Lebanon was no longer a livable place. The
father was confused. Should he have left early so that his boy could have been
born in a country, not in a jungle?
At night, the father became overwhelmed with sadness. He thought about his son’s
words and the situation in the country. The system has plundered the citizens’
assets and destroyed the last features of the state. The country is governed by
a strange kind of wolves. Strange and terrible. Parliament is not a parliament,
nor is the government a government, nor is the judiciary a judiciary.
The fears and hatred of the residents of Lebanon have overflowed. It is as if
they have grown fed up with living together. Cohabitation is exhausting and
divorce is fatal. The Lebanese have even failed in managing to coexist between
the poisons of history and the storms of geography.
The weak does not acknowledge that times have changed. The strong does not
accept the idea of respecting the conditions of living under one roof. The
calamity of living without a state.
He thought of immediately informing his son of his firm rejection of his
decision to leave. Families are not companies that export their children to live
abroad and in exile. But he paused. He cannot deny that the city had lost its
secret, its universities, its port, and its hospitals. Moreover, bread is hard
to obtain, and can only be taken by enduring endless humiliation.
He could not deny that he personally feels that his life was used up long before
his savings… that the policeman was no longer a policeman… that the court was no
longer a court… and that the law was strange and humiliating, and the
constitution worthless.
Every day brought new insults. Only the pirates danced like peacocks on the
sinking ship. They meet and separate. It’s a jungle of peacocks and wolves.
He tried to find some consolation, but the calamities of the “death boats”
taught him that the disaster is greater than the Lebanese map. It’s massive
devastation that transcends borders and maps, whose residents cannot save them
and others show no mercy. Maps transformed by regional greed into playgrounds
for endless wars…
Whenever a boat sank here or there, he asked about the identities of the
victims. About the places that drove them to the sea… Syrians, Palestinians,
Iraqis, Somalis, Libyans and other nationalities are found in the lists.
He once dreamed of waking up one day to see the Middle East regain its humanity.
Of seeing governments preoccupied with development, education and job creation…
Governments, which do not loot or waste public money. Governments that respect
citizens and guard their right to be different under the constitution…
Governments that do not tremble before the killer and the thief.
But he gave up on this kind of dream, as the Middle East is home to endless
conflicts.
He never rejoiced in the “Arab Spring”, when the enemies of the spring seized
it. But he wanted to live in a country that is governed by law and accommodates
all its citizens, even if they drank from different springs and sang different
songs.
The Middle East is home to many conflicts. We have known of the open Palestinian
wound our entire lives. The Kurdish wound continues to bleed. Wars and
agreements. Negotiations and breakdowns. As if some maps do not accommodate some
of their children. They are humiliated if they are moderate, and killed before
they take up arms. I think of the young Kurdish residents on the Syrian side of
the Turkish border. Their house is only temporary. Their future is vague or
frightening. They are likely thinking of the same choices considered by the
Lebanese youth.
I also think of the Palestinian youth, who were supposed to dream of earning a
respectable degree and a suitable job that would ease their hardship… Their
lives could have taken a normal path, but they reside in a place where it’s hard
to live. It is as if the Israelis and Palestinians are destined to fight each
other forever, because stability cannot be built on injustice. Israel has missed
two historic opportunities: the Oslo Accords and the Arab Peace initiative. Here
comes the cycle of bloodshed again.
It is a dark night in many maps. Not a glimmer of hope. How hard it is to live
in this part of the world!
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 30-31/2023
Systemic Discrimination: Comparing
America’s Blacks to Egypt’s Christians
Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/January
30, 2023
On Jan. 17, 2023, Presidential Decree #12 was announced in Egypt. It lists 100
newly appointed vice-presidents of the State Council. Only one of them is a
Copt, a member of Egypt’s native Christian demographic, which makes up 10-15% of
the nation’s population. As Coptic Solidarity observed, “This is one more
proof—if proof was needed—that severe and systemic discrimination against
Egypt’s indigenous Christian Copts is a state policy, sanctioned by the
President personally.”This is, indeed, just the latest instance of overt
discrimination. A few months earlier, in September, 2022, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi
issued several other presidential decrees for the appointment of new deputy
prosecutors. Out of 516 hires, a paltry five—meaning less than 1%—were
Christians. (Meanwhile, the Egyptian embassy in Washington D.C. boasts of Sisi’s
efforts to ensure “meritocracy in civil service.”)
One month before that, in August, 2022, the president of Cairo University
assigned 31 new directors, deputy directors, managers, and researchers to head a
number of departments, including those of agriculture, medicine, engineering,
nursing, dentistry, statistical research, and African Studies. Not a single one
of them was Christian. All were Muslim. Before that, in March, 2022, 98 female
judges took the legal oath in preparation for assuming judicial roles in Egypt’s
State Council. This was considered a major and unprecedented development. Since
its inception 75 years earlier, not a single woman had sat on the podium of the
State Council court—and now 98 are. Yet, not one of them is a Christian—again,
despite the fact that the Copts account for between 10-15% of Egypt’s
population, suggesting that at the very least 10 of the 98 should have, for
proper representation, been Christian.
The list of areas where Egypt’s Christians hit an invisible (or rather very
visible) ceiling of 0-2% of total hires is long; it goes from the military to
the police, from academia to local governance, from public companies to media.
Such overt discrimination persists in even less “formal” settings. Take football
(American soccer), for example—a very popular national pastime in Egypt. As
Coptic Solidarity repeatedly reported (e.g., here, here, and here), and as Aid
to the Church in Need noted in a February, 2022 report, Christians make up
around 15% of the population of Egypt and are as football-crazy as their Muslim
neighbours, but there is not a single Copt in the national team….There are no
official statistics on the number of Copts in Egypt, but estimates vary between
10% and 20%. … The fact that no Copts, of any denomination, are represented in
top-level football, and therefore in the national team, stings. Perhaps the best
way to underscore what is happening to Egypt’s Christian minority is by analogy.
If Copts make up 10-15% of Egypt’s population, that places them in a very
similar position to blacks in America, who are reportedly 13.6% of the
population. Unlike Egypt’s Christians, however, African Americans hold all sorts
of public and official offices, often beyond their respective percentage and
minority status. A black man, Barack Obama, was elected President of the U.S.,
and a black woman, Kamala Harris, is currently Vice President of the U.S. A
black man, Lloyd Austin, is the current Secretary of Defense. Before him, Colin
Powell was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. Armed Forces, and
later became Secretary of State. He was succeeded by a black woman, Condoleezza
Rice. There are many black senators, governors, and congressmen; successful
black CEOs, physicians, scientists, and professors; and, of course, black
athletes. Most notably in the media—from big budget Hollywood to local
advertisements—blacks appear to be overly represented than their respective
population might warrant.
Now, imagine the reverse; imagine if blacks, who make up 13.6% of America, held
0% of all of this nation’s important and prestigious positions, including in the
media, and between 0-2% of virtually every other decent job. What would be said
of the U.S.—and how would its progressives howl? Meanwhile, little is said of
Egypt, and no one but its Christians howl. At any rate, here is a stark reminder
that discrimination—to say nothing of outright persecution and even slaughter—is
not limited to race, but religion.
Blinken Reaffirms Need for
Two-State Solution after Talks with Netanyahu
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 30 January, 2023
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israelis and Palestinians to ease
tensions on Monday during a visit to Jerusalem, reaffirming a long-stalled peace
vision of two states side by side as the "only path" forward. Arriving amid the
bloodiest violence in years, Blinken focused censure on a Palestinian gun spree
outside a synagogue that put Israel on high alert but also cautioned against any
celebration or avenging of such bloodshed. Seven people were shot dead in
Friday's attack by an East Jerusalem man who was himself killed by police.
Lionized by many fellow Palestinians, he had no known links to armed groups.
A day earlier, Israel carried out an unusually deep raid on the Jenin refugee
camp in the occupied West Bank, killing 10 residents, most of them gunmen. At
least 35 Palestinians, including fighters and civilians, have died in violence
surging since Jan. 1, medical officials say.
"It is the responsibility of everyone to take steps to calm tensions rather than
inflame them," Blinken told reporters after landing in Tel Aviv. Friday's
rampage, he said, "was more than an attack on individuals. It was also an attack
on the universal act of practicing one's faith. We condemn it in the strongest
terms."
"And we condemn all those who celebrate these and any other acts of terrorism
that take innocent lives, no matter who the victim is or what they believe.
Calls for vengeance against more innocent victims are not the answer."Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom Blinken met later on Monday, has called
for more citizens to carry guns as a precaution against such street attacks. But
he has also warned Israelis not to resort to vigilante violence. Blinken was due
to see Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday. Palestinian officials
said Israeli settlers had set fire on Monday to two cars near the northern West
Bank city of Nablus and thrown stones at a house near Ramallah, following a
similar attack on Sunday. Elsewhere in the West Bank, Palestinian officials said
Israeli troops killed a 26-year-old man at a checkpoint. The army said troops
opened fire on the man's car after he rammed into one of them and tried to flee
an inspection. The last round of US-sponsored talks on founding a Palestinian
state alongside Israel stalled in 2014. Netanyahu's new hardline government
includes partners who oppose Palestinian statehood, and control over the
Palestinian territories is divided between Abbas, who favors diplomacy, and
rival Hamas, who are sworn to Israel's destruction. After meeting Netanyahu in
Jerusalem, Blinken restated Washington's belief that a two-state solution was
the only way to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
"As I said to the prime minister, anything that would move us away from that
vision is, in our judgment, detrimental to Israel's long-term security and
long-term identity as a Jewish and democratic state," Blinken said. Recent data
indicates that public support for a two-state solution has reached a historic
low. According to a survey published last week by the Palestinian Center for
Policy and Research, 33% of Palestinians and 34% of Israeli Jews say they
support it, a significant drop from data collected in 2020. Two-thirds of
Palestinians and 53% of Israeli Jews said they opposed the two-state solution.
The United States has voiced support for Israel's security and for Palestinians
to enjoy equal measures of dignity.
In Israel, disposable
plastics trigger culture war, test PM
JERUSALEM (AP)/Mon, January 30, 2023
On Idit Silman’s first day as Israel’s new environmental protection minister,
she handed out soft drinks in disposable plastic cups to hospital patients.
The gesture held deep symbolic meaning in Israel, where soft drinks and
single-use cups, plates and cutlery have become weapons in a culture war between
the country’s secular Jewish majority and the smaller but politically powerful
religious minority.
For much of the public, a tax imposed last year on plastic goods seemed like a
straightforward way to cut down on the use of items that are major sources of
pollution. But many ultra-Orthodox Jews saw the extra cost as an assault on a
way of life that relies on the convenience of disposable goods to ease the
challenges of managing their large families. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s
government, the most right-wing in Israel's history, relies heavily on
ultra-Orthodox parties and has moved quickly to remove the tax on plastics. On
Sunday, his Cabinet voted to repeal the tax, sending the matter to the full
parliament for what is expected to be final approval. “We promised and we
delivered,” said Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the Religious
Zionism Party. “The fight against the cost of living is a fight we all are
waging.”In 2021, when Netanyahu and his religious allies were in the opposition,
then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s government authorized a tax on highly
sugary drinks as a health measure to curb rising obesity rates and diabetes, and
the tax on single-use plastics as a means of fighting a plague of plastic
pollution. The tax levied 11 shekels per kilogram ($1.5 per pound) on single-use
plastic goods, effectively doubling the market price.Repealing those taxes were
key demands of Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies, who made them a rallying cry
ahead of November’s parliamentary election. Another coalition deal between
Netanyahu and his ultra-Orthodox allies would effectively eliminate a refundable
deposit on plastic bottles imposed a year ago. The United Nations Environment
Program has called plastic waste “one of the biggest environmental scourges of
our time,” and says the equivalent of a garbage truck-full is dumped into the
ocean each minute. Plastics can take centuries to degrade, cause extensive
damage to ecosystems and can contain compounds toxic to organisms. Israel is a
major consumer of single-use plastics. The Environmental Protection Ministry
said in a 2021 report that Israeli consumption of single-use plastics had more
than doubled between 2009 and 2019. It said the per capita average hit 7.5
kilograms (16 pounds) per year — five times the average in Europe. Single-use
plastics made up an estimated 90% of trash on Israel’s coastline, and 19% of the
garbage on public lands, constituting a major environmental threat, it said.
Nonetheless, Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies, or Haredim, are celebrating the
plastic tax’s expected repeal. Disposable plasticware has become a key element
of the Haredi lifestyle in Israel in recent decades, said Yisrael Cohen, an
ultra-Orthodox political analyst.
Families with an average of six children per household use disposable
plasticware for weekday meals and large Sabbath gatherings alike as a
labor-saving solution to washing the dishes. Single-use plasticware is de
rigueur in Jewish seminaries where ultra-Orthodox men study and eat their meals.
“It’s an entire industry, an institution,” he said. “Single-use plastic is a
great solution for the Haredi community.”For ultra-Orthodox politicians, these
taxes were emblematic of what they considered the previous government’s attack
on their lifestyle. Haredi media outlets frequently referred to them as
“decrees” issued by the secular finance minister at the time, Avigdor Lieberman,
that were aimed at targeting the religious minority. “Lieberman has been
depicted as the one who stuck it to the ultra-Orthodox on every issue,” Cohen
said. “Automatically this thing was painted as something that targets the
Haredim.”
Environmental groups say that over the course of 2022 — the year the tax was in
effect — single-use plastic consumption dropped by a third. A survey of Israeli
beaches by a pair of environmental groups, Zalul and the Israel Union for
Environmental Defense, found a significant drop in the quantity of single-use
plasticware and plastic bottles on Israeli beaches. They cited the taxes on
plastic and sweetened drinks. On top of the environmental impact, the tax
generated nearly $100 million in revenue, according to the country’s tax
authority.
Meirav Abadi, an attorney with the union, said that repealing the tax would be
“like a green light to go back to using these utensils in an even more intensive
manner.”Limor Gorelik, head of plastic pollution prevention at Zalul, called the
minister’s photo op with the plastic cups “really embarrassing.”“It’s so
frustrating because we were so late in trying to make steps towards other
countries” on multiple environmental issues. She fears Israel may “go backwards”
on other issues as well. Smotrich, the finance minister, has also extended a tax
break on coal until the end of 2023 in a bid to keep electricity bills down — a
move environmentalists say will increase consumption of the polluting fuel.
Silman, who was a member of Bennett’s party before defecting to Netanyahu’s
Likud party last year, signaled on Sunday that she may yet change her stance.
Silman voted against the Cabinet decision to repeal the plastic tax, saying that
after studying the issue in recent weeks, she has come to understand the
“enormous” environmental cost of disposable plastics. She said the government
should find an alternative way to reduce plastic consumption before doing away
with the tax. But she said the original tax was a mistake and should not have
been done in a way that “arouses antagonism toward a particular population.”
11 dead in Syria drone strikes on
pro-Iran groups
AFP/January 30, 2023
BEIRUT: A series of unclaimed drone strikes on pro-Iran factions in war-torn
Syria killed 11 people and destroyed trucks carrying Iranian arms from Iraq, a
war monitor said on Monday. The first attack, on Sunday evening, hit six lorries
and killed seven people near Syria’s border with Iraq, said the Britain-based
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. A second strike on Monday morning killed
three people, including a pro-Iran commander, as they inspected the attack site
in a pickup truck, said the Observatory, which relies on a network of sources
inside Syria.
Later, an unidentified drone targeted a fuel tanker the Observatory said was
“likely loaded with weapons and ammunition meant for Iran-backed groups” in the
same region. The tanker exploded, killing at least one person. No group has
claimed responsibility for the attacks, which occurred near the Albu
Kamal-Al-Qaim border crossing between Syria and Iraq. Pro-Iran factions,
including Iraqi groups and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, have a major presence in the
region and are heavily deployed south and west of the Euphrates River in Syria’s
Deir Ezzor province.
The Syrian regime of President Bashar Assad receives military support from Iran
and its allied armed groups including Hezbollah. Israel has carried out air and
missile raids against Iran-backed and regime forces in Syria, where a US-led
coalition has also conducted raids. The Observatory said Sunday’s attack hit a
convoy of six refrigerated trucks transporting Iranian weapons to Syria from
Iraq, killing the drivers and their assistants. The second strike killed “a
commander in an Iran-backed group and two of his companions,” it said, adding
that all of those killed in the two attacks were non-Syrians. “The trucks were
transporting Iranian weapons,” said the group’s chief Rami Abdel Rahman. A
Syrian official working at the crossing denied the trucks had been loaded with
weapons, telling AFP they were carrying foodstuff that Iran had sent to Syria as
aid. The 25-truck convoy had been targeted three times in less than 24 hours, he
said, adding it “had obtained permission to cross into Syria.”But an Iraqi
border official said the trucks, which were Iraqi, had illegally crossed into
Syria and were not carrying Iraqi goods.
“They probably used Iraqi trucks instead of Iranian ones to avoid being
targeted,” the Iraqi official. Sunday’s strikes also hit the headquarters of
Iran-backed groups in the area, said Omar Abu Layla, an activist who heads the
Deir Ezzor 24 media outlet. “There was heavy damage in the area that was
struck,” he said. The Observatory said at least two similar convoys had entered
Syria from Iraq in recent days, off loading their cargo to pro-Iran groups in
the eastern town of Al-Mayadeen. Albu Kamal has seen similar strikes in the
past, including one that in November killed at least 14 people when it hit a
pro-Iran militia truck convoy carrying arms and fuel, the Britain-based group
said. In December, Israel’s then- military chief Aviv Kohavi said his country
had launched the raid, adding the convoy had been carrying weapons bound for
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel rarely comments on individual military operations
but has admitted carrying out hundreds of air and missile strikes in Syria since
the civil war broke out in 2011. A US-led coalition fighting the remnants of
Daesh in Iraq and Syria has also carried out strikes against pro-Iran fighters
in Syria in the past. The conflict in Syria started in 2011 with the brutal
repression of peaceful protests and escalated to pull in foreign powers and
global extremists. Nearly half a million people have been killed, and the
conflict has forced around half of the country’s pre-war population from their
homes.
Crimea will never again be part of Ukraine -
Croatian president
SARAJEVO (Reuters)/Mon, January 30, 2023
Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, will never again be
part of Ukraine, Croatian President Zoran Milanovic said on Monday in remarks
detailing his objection to Zagreb providing military aid to Kyiv.In December,
Croatian lawmakers rejected a proposal that the country join a European Union
mission in support of the Ukrainian military, reflecting deep divisions between
Milanovic and Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. A vocal critic of Western policy
in Ukraine, Milanovic has said he does not want his country, the EU's newest
member state, to face what he has called potentially disastrous consequences
over the 11-month-old war in Ukraine. What the West is doing about Ukraine "is
deeply immoral because there is no solution (to the war)," Milanovic told
reporters during a visit to military barracks in the eastern town of Petrinja,
referring to Western military support for Kyiv. He added that the arrival of
German tanks in Ukraine would only serve to drive Russia closer to China. "It is
clear that Crimea will never again be part of Ukraine," Milanovic added.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has vowed to restore Ukrainian rule over
Crimea, seized and annexed by Russia in 2014 in a move not recognised by most
other countries. Russia says a referendum held after Russian forces seized the
peninsula showed Crimeans genuinely want to be part of Russia. The referendum is
not recognised by most countries. Milanovic criticised Western countries for
using double standards in international politics, saying Russia would invoke
what he called the international community's "annexation of Kosovo" as an excuse
for taking parts of Ukraine. Milanovic was referring to Kosovo's declaration of
independence in 2008 following a 1998-1999 war in which NATO countries bombed
rump-Yugoslavia, comprising Serbia and Montenegro, to protect Albanian-majority
Kosovo. "We recognised Kosovo against the will of a state (Serbia) to which
Kosovo belonged," he said, cautioning that he was not questioning Kosovo's
independence but the concept of Western double standards. Milanovic, a Croatian
former premier from the Social Democratic party (SDP), has embraced an anti-EU
stance since he took the mostly ceremonial job of president, aligning his
policies with those of Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Bosnian Serb
secessionist leader Milorad Dodik.
Ukrainian troops are calling the US military in the
middle of shootouts with Russia for help fixing their artillery
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/January 30, 2023
These virtual exchanges often take place during battle, the Associated Press
reported. Ukrainian troops, meanwhile, are pushing artillery systems to the
limits to keep Russia at bay.
As Ukrainian troops push their Western artillery to the limits, and sometimes
past them, while fighting off Russian forces, the US military is helping to
repair broken down pieces over the phone and through video chats. A US
military-led response team that includes troops, civilians, and contractors from
the US and allied countries, is providing real-time hardware support from a base
in Poland to Ukrainian forces on the front lines, the Associated Press reported
on Saturday. Because NATO countries are not sending troops into Ukraine, the
maintenance team has to work remotely to provide support — often while Kyiv's
forces are in battle and actively exchanging fire with the enemy. This help
line, which involves encrypted communication between phones and tablets in
virtual chatrooms, is a growing effort to give Ukraine advice on repairs and
maintenance as it continues to receive more advanced weapons from NATO
countries, the report said. "A lot of the times we'll get calls from right there
on the firing line, so there'll be outgoing or incoming fire at the same time
you're trying to help the forward maintainers troubleshoot the best they can," a
US soldier on the team told the AP.
According to the report, Ukrainian troops have been firing their heavy artillery
pieces past when they would typically be due for a repair, and at unprecedented
rates to keep Russian forces at bay. Because of this, the support team is
learning the limits of these systems and where they might have a breaking point.
Fixing US-provided howitzers has been a common request from the Ukrainians,
according to the report. The US Department of Defense has sent Kyiv 160 155 mm
howitzers — with over 1 million accompanying artillery rounds — and 72 105 mm
howitzers, complimented by 370,000 accompanying artillery rounds. Howitzers,
which are long-range indirect fire weapons that can lob shells at enemy
positions miles away, are just one part of the more than $27.1 billion in
security assistance that the US has provided Ukraine with since Russian forces
launched their large-scale invasion nearly a year ago. Early weapons provisions
from the US to Ukraine included Javelin anti-tank missile systems. Military.com
reported an over-the-phone repair incident last summer, revealing that a
Washington state National Guardsmen got an unexpected call from a Ukrainian
soldier he met during a previous deployment about a problem with his Javelin.
The Guardsmen managed to fix the issue, and then about half an hour later, he
got a call from the Ukrainian soldier saying he took out a Russian vehicle. As
fighting remains heavily concentrated in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, US and
allied countries in recent weeks have stepped up their commitment to sending
military aid to Kyiv, the aim being to get Ukrainian forces back on the move.
Hundreds of armored vehicles — including main battle tanks from the UK and
Germany and eventually the US — will be heading to the battlefield as Ukraine
continues to press for more advanced weaponry.
In finally securing the Western-made tanks, which were much-sought-after by
Ukraine, the country has now set its ambitions on acquiring fighter jets.
Boris Johnson says Putin threatened him with a
missile strike in an 'extraordinary' phone call weeks before Russia's invasion
of Ukraine
Sinéad Baker/Business Insider/January 30, 2023
Boris Johnson said Putin threatened the UK with a missile strike before it
invaded Ukraine. The then-prime minister said he was trying to convince Putin
not to invade. He said Putin told him: "I don't want to hurt you but, with a
missile, it would only take a minute."The UK's former prime minister said that
President Vladimir Putin of Russia threatened his country with a missile attack
during a February 2022 phone call, just weeks before the start of Russia's
invasion of Ukraine. Boris Johnson, who was the UK prime minister when Russia
invaded Ukraine later in February 2022, told the BBC that he had a phone call
with Putin in the run-up to the invasion, where he tried to persuade Putin not
to go ahead with the attack. "He threatened me at one point, and said: 'Boris, I
don't want to hurt you but, with a missile, it would only take a minute' or
something like that," Johnson said, recalling the conversation. Johnson said
Putin was talking in a relaxed and detached manner. "I think from the very
relaxed tone that he was taking, the sort of air of detachment that he seemed to
have, he was just playing along with my attempts to get him to negotiate," he
said. Johnson described it as the "most extraordinary call" in an interview for
a new BBC documentary. He added that he told Putin that war would be a "utter
catastrophe" and that Russia's apparent fear that Ukraine would join the NATO
military alliance would not come true "for the foreseeable future." He also told
Putin that invading Ukraine would result in sanctions from the West and more
NATO troops stationed along Russia's borders, according to his recollection.
Both of those predictions came true. A Kremlin spokesman denied the comments,
calling them either a "deliberate falsehood" or a misunderstanding on the part
of Johnson."There were no threats to use missiles," Dmitry Peskov told the BBC.
Johnson was seen as one of Ukraine's biggest allies following the Russian
invasion, and has made multiple trips to the country, both during his time as
prime minister and after. While it is impossible to know if Putin's perceived
threat was genuine, the BBC pointed to Russia's previous meddling in the UK,
including the 2018 poisoning of a former Russian agent and his daughter in the
city of Salisbury, for which three Russian nationals were charged.
Russian Shelling Kills 5 in Tough
Eastern Ukraine Combat
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 30 January, 2023
Russian shelling killed at least five people and wounded 13 others during the
previous 24 hours, Ukrainian authorities said Monday, as the Kremlin’s and
Kyiv’s forces remained locked in combat in eastern Ukraine ahead of renewed
military pushes that are expected when the weather improves.
The casualties included a woman who was killed and three others who were wounded
by the Russian shelling of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the
country’s northeast, according to regional Gov. Oleh Syniyehubov. Moscow’s
troops seized large areas of the northeastern Kharkiv region in the months
following its invasion of its neighbor last February. But Ukrainian
counteroffensives that began in August snatched back Russian-occupied territory,
most notably in Kharkiv. Those successes lent weight to Ukraine’s arguments that
its troops could deliver more stinging defeats to Russia if its Western allies
provided more weaponry. Kyiv last week won promises of tanks from the United
States and Germany to help its war effort. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz
Morawiecki on Monday hinted at the prospect of more upcoming pledges, saying
that “any activity aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s defense powers is under
consultation with our NATO partners.”Such a move could encounter some familiar
political obstacles, however. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, after demurring for weeks
over sending Germany’s Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, looks set to dig his heels in
over providing fighter jets.
Scholz, who is currently on a trip to South America, said he regretted the
emergence of the fighter jet discussion. He said in Chile on Sunday that a
serious debate is necessary and not a “competition to outdo each other … in
which perhaps domestic political motives are in the foreground rather than
support for Ukraine.”Military analysts say more aid for Ukraine is crucial if
Kyiv is to block an expected Russian offensive in the spring and launch its own
effort to push back the Russian forces. “The pattern of delivery of Western aid
has powerfully shaped the pattern of this conflict,” the Institute for the Study
of War, a US-based think tank, said late Sunday. As Ukraine emerges from a
bitter winter, attention is turning to the possibility of new offensives when
the weather improves.
The British Ministry of Defense noted Monday that the Kremlin never formally
rescinded last September’s order for a partial mobilization of reservists that
boosted troop numbers for combat in Ukraine. It said Russia may be keeping the
door open for further call-ups.
“The Russian leadership highly likely continues to search for ways to meet the
high number of personnel required to resource any future major offensive in
Ukraine, while minimizing domestic dissent,” it said in a tweet. Kremlin
spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted that supplies of Western weapons won’t stop
Russia. “Ukraine keeps demanding new weapons and the West is encouraging those
demands,” Peskov said in a conference call with reporters Monday. “It’s a
deadlock, it results in a significant escalation and makes NATO countries
increasingly involved in the conflict.”Ukraine’s presidential office said the
eastern Donetsk region, which has been the scene of intense fighting for months,
remains “invariably hard.”Heavy fighting continued to rage around Bakhmut and
Vuhledar, with regional Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko saying that 15 towns and villages
in the region came under shelling Sunday. Russian forces have been trying for
months to capture Bakhmut, with the effort being led by the Wagner Group, a
private military company led by a rogue millionaire with longtime links to
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian troops last week said they conducted
an organized retreat from Soledar, a few kilometers (miles) from Bakhmut, amid
pressure from Wagner, which is believed to have a large number of convicts in
its ranks. Ukrainian authorities said the southern city of Kherson also has come
under Russian shelling. The bombardment damaged residential buildings, a
hospital, a school, a bus station, a bank and a post office. Two foreign vessels
were damaged in the port of Kherson, the presidential office added without
elaborating.
Zelenskiy Visits Southern Ukraine, Meets Danish Prime
Minister
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 30 January, 2023
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met Danish Prime Minister Mette
Frederiksen in the southern city of Mykolaiv on Monday during a rare visit by a
foreign leader to a region close to the war front. Video footage posted online
by Zelenskiy's office showed the president greeting Frederiksen with a handshake
on a snowy street before entering a hospital where they met soldiers wounded in
Russia's invasion. "It is important for our warriors to be able to undergo not
only physical, but also psychological rehabilitation," Zelenskiy wrote on the
Telegram messaging app. "I am grateful to all the medical workers who care about
the health of our defenders. I wish them a speedy recovery!"The two leaders also
visited the Mykolaiv Commercial Sea Port, where they saw oil storage tanks hit
by Russian enemy missiles and drones, and a heating point equipped with a water
purification and distribution unit under a project implemented with Danish
assistance. Zelenskiy thanked Frederiksen for the assistance provided by
Denmark, whose defense ministry said earlier this month that the country would
donate 19 French-made Caesar howitzer artillery systems to Ukraine. The
president said he had also met local officials while in Mykolaiv region, which
has frequently been under attack by Russian forces since the invasion 11 months
ago. "The region is heroically withstanding all the attacks of the terrorists
(Russian forces). During the visit, I held a meeting on the current situation in
the region," he wrote. "We discussed the operational situation in the south of
Ukraine, the consequences of Russia's missile and drone attacks." Talks also
covered the state of the region's energy infrastructure and the region's
long-term recovery, Zelenskiy said. Later in the day, the two leaders held a
news conference in the neighboring southern city of Odesa, where Zelenskiy
warned of a potential looming assault by Moscow as its invasion of Ukraine
approaches the one-year anniversary. "I think that Russia really wants its big
revenge. I think they have (already) started it. I think they won’t be able to
bring back a positive result for their own society," Zelenskiy told reporters.
"I think that bit by bit we will stop them, destroy them, and prepare our big
counter-offensive," he said. Zelenskiy said Russia was not ceasing its attacks
on the front lines in eastern Ukraine, and pouring in more fighters from the
Wagner group, a Russian private military company. "Every day they either bring
in more of their regular troops, or we see an increase in the number of
Wagnerites."
More Russian forces moved to Kursk region on
Ukrainian border -governor
Reuters/Mon, January 30, 2023
Russia has moved additional forces and equipment to the Kursk region on the
border with Ukraine to protect the frontier and ensure security, regional
governor Roman Starovoit said on Monday, according to Interfax news agency.
Local authorities say that the region has repeatedly been subjected to Ukrainian
shelling since Russia invaded Ukraine almost a year ago. Some of Russia's troops
entered from the Kursk region, although the areas of northeastern Ukraine that
they seized have since been retaken by Kyiv's forces. Starovoit told a meeting
of the regional government that a solid contingent of personnel from the armed
forces, border guards and law enforcement agencies had already been formed in
Kursk, but that "it is necessary to provide comprehensive support for the
reception, deployment and arrangement of additional forces".Kyiv has repeatedly
warned that Russia could make a new attempt to seize parts of northeastern
Ukraine, pointing to increased joint military activity in Russia's close ally
Belarus, another of the staging points for February's invasion, around 200 km
(120 miles) west of Kursk province. (Writing by Kevin Liffey; Editing by Mark
Heinrich)
Iran Summons Senior Ukraine Diplomat over Comments on Drone
Strike
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 30 January, 2023
Iran summoned Ukraine's charge d'affaires in Tehran on Monday over his country's
comments on a drone strike on a military factory in the central Iranian province
of Isfahan, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. In Ukraine, which
accuses Iran of supplying hundreds of drones to Russia to attack civilian
targets in Ukrainian cities far from the front, a senior aide to President
Volodymyr Zelenskiy linked the incident directly to the war there. "Explosive
night in Iran," Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted. "Did warn you."Iran has acknowledged
sending drones to Russia but says they were sent before Moscow's invasion of
Ukraine last year. Moscow denies its forces use Iranian drones in Ukraine,
although many have been shot down and recovered there.
Reports of
Torture, Unfair Trials in Iran Trigger Fresh Alarm Over Fate of Protesters
Golnar Motevalli/Bloomberg/January30, 2023
(Bloomberg) -- Rights groups warned that several young people, including
teenagers who’ve been jailed by Iran for their involvement in anti-government
protests, are at risk of being executed, and have been tortured. In a statement,
London-based Amnesty International urged Iran to immediately quash death
sentences for three protesters — ages 18, 19 and 31 — charged with at least two
capital offenses each after court hearings that lasted less than an
hour.Widespread demonstrations against the leadership of the Islamic Republic
erupted in mid-September over the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, a
22-year-old Kurdish woman. She collapsed at a police station after being
arrested for allegedly flouting Iran’s strict dress code for women. Iran has
been condemned by many countries for its use of violence and executions to
suppress the protests, which have been largely led by women and young people and
have presented a major challenge to the hardline clerical leadership. Arshia
Takdastan, Mehdi Mohammadifard and Javad Rouhi are each accused of “inciting
arson or vandalism by dancing, clapping, chanting or throwing headscarves into
bonfires” during protests in a town in northern Iran on Sept. 21, according to
Amnesty. The men have have been subjected to “floggings, electric shocks, being
hung upside down and death threats at gunpoint” by the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps in order to extract confessions, Amnesty said, citing “informed
sources on the ground.”In its statement, Amnesty added that one of the men had
been raped and another sexually tortured while in detention. Rouhi was also
charged with a third capital offense of apostasy after being accused of burning
a copy of the Koran. Activists have also called for the release of 21-year-old
Armita Abbasi, who was arrested in October after criticizing the Islamic
Republic in social media posts and is due to stand trial on Sunday. According to
a Nov. 21 report by CNN, citing interviews with unnamed doctors in Iran, she has
been repeatedly raped in detention and needed treatment in hospital for severe
bleeding. Iran’s state-run media denied the reports. According to the BBC,
Abbasi’s father confirmed in an Instagram post on Saturday that she’ll be
represented by a court-approved lawyer after her original attorney resigned from
his position because he was barred from meeting her. Abbasi is being held in a
prison near the city of Karaj, on the western outskirts of Tehran. The
Oslo-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported on Jan. 6 that she’d
joined a group hunger strike involving 14 other women prisoners.
Iran Receives Messages from Nuclear Deal Parties via Qatar
Al-Dammam, Tehran/Merza al-Khuwaldi and Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 30 January, 2023
Iran announced on Sunday that it has received, via Qatar, messages from
countries participating in the stalled 2015 nuclear deal talks. Foreign Minister
Hossein Amirabdollahian made the announcement during a press conference in
Tehran with his Qatari counterpart Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. The
Iranian official did not provide any details about the details of the messages,
but he welcomed the efforts made by Doha to revive the nuclear negotiations that
have been stalled for months. He thanked Qatar for its efforts "to return all
parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to their
obligations."In turn, Sheikh Mohammed asserted that Qatar always seeks to create
a suitable environment for holding additional negotiating rounds on the nuclear
agreement, adding that the US sent several nuclear deal-related messages to Doha
to convey to Tehran, but perhaps not directly.
Neither of the two ministers revealed the details of the US message and what it
would entail. The Qatari FM tweeted that he met Amirabdolahian and discussed
"bilateral relations and the latest developments in the nuclear deal file."
"Qatar looks forward to promoting joint efforts that leave a positive impact on
society and the region," he said. During the press conference, Amirabdolahian
stressed that Iran has always welcomed regional dialogue to ensure strong and
stable cooperation, accusing the US and its allies of "economic terrorism"
against Iran. "We thank Qatar for its efforts to lift the sanctions. Qatar is
trying to return all JCPOA parties to their commitments. Today, we received
messages from the other parties of the JCPOA through the Foreign Minister of
Qatar. We thank Qatar for its goodwill to bring all parties to the final steps
of the agreement," he added. Doha has previously tried to bridge views between
Iran and the US on the nuclear agreement. Sheikh Mohammed touched on the
importance of boosting economic and trade cooperation with Iran, stressing that
Doha is looking forward to strengthening its relations with all regional
countries. Iran and Western countries began talks in Vienna in April 2021 to
revive the nuclear agreement after Washington unilaterally withdrew from it in
2018, but the discussions have yet to achieve any tangible progress. Meanwhile,
the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi,
announced on Tuesday that he intends to visit Iran in February to hold talks to
get Tehran to resume cooperation on its nuclear activities. Grossi referred to
the "big, big impasse" in the negotiations and said that Iran's withdrawal from
the agreement, including its disconnection of 27 IAEA cameras monitoring its
declared nuclear sites, means that the IAEA is no longer effectively watching
Tehran's nuclear program. He stressed that the agency could not monitor what was
going on for "at least a year," hoping to be "making some progress" on restoring
Iranian cooperation with his agency during his planned visit. Grossi stressed
that this "trajectory is certainly not a good one," speaking of Iran's recent
nuclear activities, including enriching uranium to a level higher than specified
in the JCPOA. "They have amassed enough nuclear material for several nuclear
weapons — not one at this point," he said, listing 70 kilograms of uranium
enriched to 60 percent purity and 1,000 kilograms at 20 percent.
Russia and Iran are combining
their banking systems to get around being banned from SWIFT
Jennifer Sor/Business Insider/January 30, 2023
Russia and Iran are integrating their banking systems, several Iranian central
bankers said on Monday. Banks in both countries have been cut off from SWIFT,
the critical payments messaging system. Russia aims to use the new system to
increase its trade with Iran to $10 billion a year, a recent report said. Russia
and Iran are integrating their banking systems in order to get around being
banned from SWIFT, the critical communication system for global bank payments.
Several Iranian central bank officials confirmed the partnership with Russia's
central bank on Monday, Reuters first reported. However, Russia's central bank
has declined to comment on the matter or issue an official statement on its
website. The new communication system forged by Iran and Russia will connect
roughly 700 Russian banks and 106 foreign banks from 13 other countries, Karimi
said. Russia is aiming to use the new system to increase their trade volume with
Iran to $10 billion a year, according to a recent report. It also plans to work
with Iran to develop a gold-backed cryptocurrency to challenge the US dollar.
"Iranian banks no longer need to use SWIFT … with Russian banks," Mohsen
Karimini, the deputy governor of Iran's central bank said to a local news
outlet. "The financial channel between Iran and the world is being repaired,"
Mohammad Farzin, Iran's chief central banker added in a statement on Twitter.
Iranian banks were first ousted from SWIFT in 2018, when the US reimposed
sanctions on Iran after it exited the landmark nuclear agreement. Select Russian
banks were also banned from the communication system last year after Russia
invaded Ukraine. Being barred from SWIFT led to serious consequences for both
nations' banking systems, as the Belgium-based messaging network is critical to
facilitate financial transactions between banks. SWIFT links over 11,000
financial institutions in over 200 countries, sending on average 42 million
messages a day, according to its website. The ban also effectively blocks
Russian and Iran from their foreign currency reserves, making it difficult to
fund their respective economies. Russian president Vladimir Putin has rebuked
western efforts to isolate Russia from the global economy, and previously said
Russia would respond by strengthening its ties with friendly nations. It's taken
a particular interest in deepening ties with Iran, which has struggled
economically amid heavy western sanctions.
Iran will continue to struggle economically unless the country sees economic
growth, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, said in a televised speech on
Monday. According to Iran's Statistics Center, inflation has skyrocketed past
50%, and over half of the population lives below the poverty line.
Bomb Hits Bus Transporting Police in South Syria, Wounding
15
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 30 January, 2023
A roadside bomb targeting a bus transporting Syrian police in the country’s
south Monday wounded 15 of the officers, the Interior Ministry said. The
ministry said in a terse statement that the officers were returning to the
capital Damascus from the southern province of Daraa. The bomb exploded on the
north-south highway near the town of Khirbet Ghazaleh. It said seven officers
were seriously wounded. Such attacks are not uncommon in Syria, where a nearly
12-year-old conflict has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced half the
country’s pre-war population of 23 million. In October, a bus bombing killed 18
Syrian soldiers in a Damascus suburb and wounded at least 27 others. Similar
attacks over the years have killed and wounded dozens of soldiers in
government-held parts of the war-torn country. In March last year, militants
attacked a military bus near the historic town of Palmyra in central Syria,
killing 13 troops and wounding 18 others. Syrian authorities usually blame
members of the ISIS group who have been active in southern and central Syria,
despite their formal defeat in Syria in 2019. The leader of ISIS, Abu al-Hassan
al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, was killed in battle with Syrian opposition fighters in
Daraa province in mid-October.
Egypt Central Bank: Pound Slips
to New Low against Dollar
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 30 January, 2023
The Egyptian pound dipped to a new low Monday of just over 30 for $1, as the
country continues to battle surging inflation and foreign currency shortages,
authorities said. The landmark slide in Egypt's Central Bank selling rate is the
latest in a series of tumbles following the country's $3 billion International
Monetary Fund bail-out package ratified in mid-December. The IMF deal was agreed
upon in exchange for Egypt implementing a number of economic reforms, including
a shift to a flexible exchange rate. The deal allows for a further $14 billion
in possible financing for Egypt. Many banks within Egypt were trading at 30
Egyptian pounds for $1 earlier this month. The Egyptian economy has been hit
hard by years of government austerity, the coronavirus pandemic and the fallout
from the war in Ukraine. Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer, with most
of its imports having traditionally come from eastern Europe. Since January
2022, the Egyptian pound has lost around 50% of its value against the dollar. In
recent months, the country has been beset by surging inflation and price hikes.
According to monthly statistics published by the state-run Central Agency for
Mobilization and Statistics earlier this month, annual inflation stood at 21.9%
in December, up from 19.2% in November. In December 2021, the annual inflation
stood at 6.5%. Food prices increased by 4% on average in December 2022, the
agency said. Almost a third of Egypt’s 104 million people live in poverty,
according to government figures. Most Egyptians rely on government subsidies to
afford basic goods such as bread, policies that have existed for decades. Egypt
is also experiencing a shortage of foreign currency. In an effort to preserve
its foreign currency supplies, many banks have placed limits on foreign cash
withdrawals. Egypt's government also said it is postponing numerous future
projects that would require significant foreign currency expenditure.
Türkiye to Host Summit of Gas Buyers, Sellers Next Month
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 30 January, 2023
Türkiye will hold a natural gas summit on Feb. 14-15 to bring together gas
supplier countries and Europe's consumer countries in Istanbul, Turkish Energy
Minister Fatih Donmez said on Monday. "We will bring together supplier countries
from the Middle East, Mediterranean, Caspian and Middle Asia with consumer
countries from Europe," Donmez said, Reuters reported. Türkiye, which has little
oil and gas, is highly dependent on imports from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, as
well as LNG imports from Qatar, the United States, Nigeria and Algeria for its
gas.
In October, Russia's President Vladimir Putin proposed setting up a gas hub in
Türkiye following explosions that damaged Russia's Nord Stream gas pipelines
under the Baltic Sea. Some Western capitals were concerned that a Turkish hub
including Russian gas could allow Moscow to mask exports that are sanctioned by
the West over the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Türkiye has the infrastructure
and experience in gas trade and authorities are taking steps for it to be a hub
where regional benchmark prices are set, Donmez said. "Our target is to bring
together supplier and consumer countries and become the gas-trading center where
the benchmark price of gas is set," Donmez said after separately announcing a
10-year gas deal with Oman.
Suicide bomber
kills 44, wounds over 150 at Pakistan mosque
PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AP)/January 30, 2023
A suicide bomber struck a crowded mosque inside a police compound in Pakistan on
Monday, causing the roof to collapse and killing at least 44 people and wounding
more than 150 others, officials said. Most of the casualties were police
officers. It was not clear how the bomber was able to slip into the walled
compound, which houses the police headquarters in the northwestern city of
Peshawar and is itself located in a high-security zone with other government
buildings. Sarbakaf Mohmand, a commander for the Pakistani Taliban, claimed
responsibility for the attack on Twitter. The main spokesman for the militant
group was not immediately available for comment. Pakistan, which is mostly Sunni
Muslim, has seen a surge in militant attacks since November, when the Pakistani
Taliban ended their cease-fire with government forces. Monday's assault on a
Sunni mosque was one of the deadliest attacks on security forces in recent
years. More than 300 worshippers were praying in the mosque, with more
approaching, when the bomber set off his explosives vest. Many were injured when
the roof came down, according to Zafar Khan, a police officer, and rescuers had
to remove mounds of debris to reach worshippers still trapped under the rubble.
Meena Gul, who was in the mosque when the bomb went off, said he doesn’t know
how he survived unhurt. The 38-year-old police officer said he heard cries and
screams after the blast. Police official Siddique Khan said the death toll had
risen to at least 44, while more than 150 people were wounded. He said the
bomber blew himself up while among the worshippers. Peshawar police chief Ijaz
Khan said at least 150 were wounded. A nearby hospital listed many of the
wounded in critical condition, raising fears the death toll could rise. Peshawar
is the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, where the Pakistani Taliban have
a strong presence, and the city has been the scene of frequent militant attacks.
The militant group, also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP, has waged
an insurgency in Pakistan in the past 15 years. It seeks the stricter
enforcement of Islamic laws, the release of their members who are in government
custody and a reduction in the Pakistani military presence in areas of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa province that it has longed used as its base. The group is separate
from but a close ally of the Afghan Taliban, who seized power in neighboring
Afghanistan in August 2021 as U.S. and NATO troops pulled out of the country
after 20 years of war. The government's truce with the TTP ended as Pakistan was
still contending with unprecedented flooding that killed 1,739 people, destroyed
more than 2 million homes, and at one point submerged as much as a third of the
country. Mohmand, of the militant organization, said a fighter carried out the
attack to avenge the killing of Abdul Wali, who was widely known as Omar Khalid
Khurasani, and was killed in neighboring Afghanistan’s Paktika province in
August 2022. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif condemned the bombing, vowed “stern
action” against those behind it, and ordered authorities to give the best
possible medical treatment for the victims. Sharif traveled to Peshawar and
visited the wounded. His office said he would receive a briefing about the
security situation in the northwest. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan called the
bombing a “terrorist suicide attack." He tweeted: “My prayers & condolences go
to victims families. It is imperative we improve our intelligence gathering &
properly equip our police forces to combat the growing threat of terrorism.”Cash-strapped
Pakistan faces a severe economic crisis and is seeking a crucial installment of
$1.1 billion from the International Monetary Fund — part of its $6 billion
bailout package — to avoid default. Talks with the IMF on reviving the bailout
have stalled in the past months. Sharif’s government came to power in April
after Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote in Parliament. Khan has since
campaigned for early elections, claiming his ouster was illegal and part of a
plot backed by the United States. Washington and Sharif dismiss Khan's claims.
*Associated Press writer Munir Ahmed in Islamabad contributed to this report.
Quebec government wants Amira
Elghawaby to resign as federal representative to combat Islamophobia, just days
into her new job
CBC/Mon, January 30, 2023
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/quebec-government-wants-amira-elghawaby-175159184.html
The Quebec government is calling on the federal government to withdraw its
support of Amira Elghawaby, the new representative to combat Islamophobia, only
four days after she was first appointed. This comes a day after her attendance
at the sixth commemoration of the deadly mosque attack in Quebec City, honouring
the six men who were killed in 2017 when a gunman opened fire just before 8 p.m.
in the Islamic Cultural Centre in the Sainte-Foy neighbourhood. Since her
appointment on Thursday, the journalist and human rights activist has been
pressured to clarify her position on Quebec's secularism law. In 2019 she wrote
a column for the Ottawa Citizen where she denounced the "anti-muslim sentiment"
that surrounded the adoption of Bill 21 — which bans public servants from
wearing religious symbols such as hijabs. Jean-François Roberge, CAQ minister
responsible for the French language, said Eghawaby has not properly apologized
for her comments about Quebec. She "seems to be overcome by an anti-Quebec
sentiment," said Roberge. "All she did was try to justify her hateful comments.
That doesn't fly. She must resign and if she doesn't, the government must remove
her immediately." In an interview with CBC's Quebec AM, Elghawaby said she has
nothing to apologize for. "The article in question actually provides the context
in it," said Elghawaby. "It was never meant to suggest that my opinion is that
the majority of Quebeckers are Islamophobic. I don't believe so. I was merely
analyzing the polling numbers … [an] opinion piece is meant to cause people to
think, to talk, to reflect." Elghawaby was present for the evening ceremony at
the mosque alongside Quebec City Mayor Bruno Marchand, Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau, Federal Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos, Public Safety Minister Marco
Mendicino and the minister of housing and diversity and inclusion, Ahmed Hussen.
Premier François Legault did not attend. Boufeldja Benabdallah, co-founder and
former president of the mosque, thanked politicians for their presence while
pointing to the premier's absence at a ceremony which included reflections on
the problem of Islamophobia. "We have just one thing to ask of you," said
Benabdallah, referring to Genevieve Guilbault, CAQ deputy premier. "Talk to Mr.
Francois Legault and tell him: 'You have to come.'"Guilbault took to the podium
and said Legault wished he could be there. On Monday, Bloc Québécois Leader
Yves-François Blanchet requested an "urgent meeting" with Elghawaby, saying her
actions were "more divisive than unifying."The Parti Québécois is not calling
for Elghawaby's resignation, but Joël Arseneau, the Parti Québécois
transportation critic, says they are questioning Trudeau's decision. "She's made
several declarations showing prejudice against Quebec society and we don't think
it's a good start for someone who wants to bring people together," said Arseneau.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 30-31/2023
د. محمد السلمي/عرب نيوز : العواقب الوخيمة لتردد أوروبا في تصنيف الحرس
الثوري الإيراني منظمة إرهابية
The dire consequences of Europe’s hesitation on designating Iran’s IRGC
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 30, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115387/dr-mohammed-al-sulami-arab-news-the-dire-consequences-of-europes-hesitation-on-designating-irans-irgc-%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%ad%d9%85%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b3%d9%84%d9%85%d9%8a-%d8%b9/
On Jan. 19, members of the European Parliament
overwhelmingly voted to urge the EU to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps as a terrorist organization. The move came against the backdrop of a
string of major Iranian regime crimes and violations, the most recent of which
is its savage suppression of protests and its execution of dissidents in the
aftermath of the killing of the young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, by the
so-called morality police.
Although this resolution came in the context of Europe’s increased pressure and
sanctions on Iran, questions are already being asked about its effectiveness and
the implementation mechanism in regard to its enforcement, particularly given
the divergent European points of view on how to deal with the threats posed by
the IRGC. There is a widespread belief that the resolution was merely a warning
shot fired to push the regime to make concessions on a number of files and
contentious issues.
The European resolution can be interpreted in the context of a recent shift in
the EU’s stance toward Iran. Since November of last year, four EU member states
have imposed sanctions on Iranian individuals and entities. These moves took
place against the backdrop of three critical developments. Firstly, the stalled
nuclear talks and Iran’s intransigence and exploitation of the ongoing global
circumstances to gain time to advance its nuclear capabilities toward the
nuclear threshold and gain qualitative capabilities that it can leverage against
the West. Secondly, Iran’s involvement in the war on Ukraine alongside Russia —
a move that has resulted in growing European fears about the IRGC expanding its
clout into the heart of Europe, threatening European security and interests.
And, lastly, the regime’s repression of protesters, including its execution of
dissidents, with the Europeans taking advantage of these domestic Iranian
upheavals to increase pressure on the regime.
In addition, the European Parliament resolution coincided with coordinated
efforts by the US and UK, as well as a significant shift in the German position,
which had always supported adopting a flexible stance toward the Iranian regime.
The Europeans are unable to bear the consequences of the IRGC’s threats and,
unfortunately, view it as an unalterable fait accompli
The European parties have thus agreed to reinstate the maximum pressure campaign
and build consensus against Iran. It is undeniable that, if the European states
were compelled to implement this resolution, the Raisi government would face
additional pressures and challenges to its efforts to restore the regime’s
legitimacy and resolve internal crises. The clearest proof of this is that, as
soon as the resolution was announced, the Iranian currency hit a record low,
with a single US dollar reaching 452,000 rials (45,000 tomans) on the free
market.
Despite increased pressures and a unified transatlantic position, the Europeans
do not appear to be willing to move forward with designating the IRGC as a
terrorist organization. It certainly appears that Iran’s efforts in convincing
European officials that the resolution must not be binding have been successful.
Confirming this, the EU last week approved a new package of sanctions that did
not include placing the IRGC on the terror blacklist, with the bloc’s foreign
policy chief, Josep Borrell, clearly stating that the resolution would not come
into force. He said: “It is something that cannot be decided without a court, a
court decision first. You cannot say I consider you a terrorist because I don’t
like you.”
Thus, there are several points worth highlighting in regard to this issue.
First, there is a gap between European awareness of the dangerous role played by
the IRGC — a serious threat to European security and maritime navigation, and a
source of a potential nuclear fallout that threatens well-established global
equilibriums — and the pursuit of effective policies. The Europeans are unable
to bear the consequences of the IRGC’s threats and, unfortunately, view it as an
unalterable fait accompli.
Second, despite Borrell’s full awareness of the threat posed by the IRGC and the
conviction of many European leaders that a decisive stance against the
organization is essential, the EU foreign policy chief reassured the IRGC that
the European resolution would not come into force. Also, the IRGC is aware that
European officials are willing to make deals with it to resolve some contentious
issues. This is why the IRGC has treated the resolution as merely a lever. As a
result, it will only alter its policies and positions to the extent necessary to
avoid exacerbating any differences with the Europeans.
Third, this European behavior proves once again that the issue of human rights
is a rhetorical lever used by the West against the Iranian regime from time to
time when necessary. Had this issue been significant, the West would have taken
measures against the IRGC’s destructive role in the Middle East, which has
created the biggest humanitarian crises affecting the region in Syria, Iraq and
Yemen. This indifference has encouraged the IRGC to venture farther afield, even
participating in destroying Ukraine and maintaining a military footprint
enabling it to advance its operations and threats to Western capitals.
In a nutshell, the Europeans have squandered a golden opportunity to forge a
rare consensus to address one of the most serious threats to regional and global
security. As a result, they should expect the IRGC to continue its hostile
policies, such as violating the nuclear threshold, exploiting current global
conditions and developing ballistic missiles capable of striking Europe’s heart,
as well as moving some of them, along with drones, to Russia.
Furthermore, the IRGC will, without doubt, ramp up its hostile efforts toward
European capitals, knowing it need not fear repercussions. The GCC states,
particularly Saudi Arabia, have long been raising concerns with the Europeans
about the IRGC’s doctrine, tools and goals. The longer it takes for the
Europeans to grasp the reality of the IRGC’s lethal threats, the more
devastating its operations will be on European soil in the near future.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is president of the International Institute for Iranian
Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami
Crazy Optimism About China's Economy
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute./January 30/2023
Stocks may soar for a while, but China's economy is far sicker than analysts
assume.
First, China's disease statistics are questionable.
Beijing is asking the world to believe that SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen causing
this disease, is behaving differently in China than it has in all other parts of
the world.
Second, even if China were over Covid as the regime maintains, the economy is
still plagued by its over-dependence on property, which accounts for almost 30%
of GDP.
"The property sector downturn is hard-wired into the first half of 2023,"
reported the Rhodium Group last month, in an analysis on China's economic
prospects.
Fourth, the regime during the pandemic did almost nothing to remedy the
principal structural flaw in the Chinese economy: the overreliance on government
spending.
China is not going to have a good 2023 or a good 2024. Foreigners are going to
lose money in China again.
Stocks may soar for a while, but China's economy is far sicker than analysts
assume. China is not going to have a good 2023 or a good 2024. Foreigners are
going to lose money in China again. (Image source: iStock)
China's propagandists tell us the Chinese economy this year will "accelerate to
4.8%." Foreign analysts are even more bullish. Goldman Sachs estimates growth of
gross domestic product of 5.5%.
China's National Health Commission announced the end of the Communist Party's
"dynamic zero-Covid" policy on December 7. It did not take long for Wall Street
to crank up the optimism machine. Morgan Stanley, on the following day, issued a
research note predicting that Chinese equities would outperform emerging markets
and global peers.
Since then, financial analysts have been falling over themselves to say how
China's stocks will continue to soar this year.
Stocks may soar for a while, but China's economy is far sicker than analysts
assume.
At the heart of the sunny views is how fast China has put COVID-19 behind it.
On the eve of the Lunar New Year holiday in China, often called the "world's
largest human migration" and therefore a potentially superspreader event, Wu
Zunyou, the chief epidemiologist of the country's Center for Disease Control and
Prevention, said that 80% of China's population had already been infected.
At the end of the holiday, the Center reported that there were 6,364 deaths
between January 20-26 in hospitals, almost half the number of deaths in the
preceding week.
Beijing's position is that the disease has already peaked so that further spread
is unlikely.
No wonder investors are exuberant. Covid relaxation is central to the idea that
China's economy will produce solid growth. Bulls, aided by Communist Party and
central government propaganda, make the argument that the end of disease-control
measures— China maintained one of the world's strictest set of rules for three
years — will result in a binge of "revenge spending."
"Chinese consumers, trapped inside their apartments during parts of the
pandemic, accumulated more than $2.2 trillion in bank deposits last year, which
should fuel more spending," the Wall Street Journal reported this month. The
Financial Times put the figure at $2.6 trillion.
Is the bull case correct? There are four primary reasons to doubt it.
First, China's disease statistics are questionable. "China Portrayal of Smooth
Covid Exit Leaves Scientists Wanting More Data," a polite Wall Street Journal
headline put it.
Beijing is asking the world to believe that SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen causing
this disease, is behaving differently in China than it has in all other parts of
the world. If this claim is false, as it almost certainly is, there will be a
follow-on wave of infections in the country this spring, as disease modelers
have been predicting.
Second, even if China were over Covid as the regime maintains, the economy is
still plagued by its over-dependence on property, which accounts for almost 30%
of GDP. Prices and sales have been plunging since late 2021, when Beijing
finally restricted imprudent lending to big developers, most notably China
Evergrande Group, now in default.
Housing is critical because it also accounts for about 70% of the wealth of the
middle class. The Chinese people have powered the economy with spending when
property prices were rising, either because they were reaping gains on sales or
because of the "wealth effect," the circumstance that people tend to spend when
they feel their assets have gone up in value. Now, the opposite of the wealth
effect is depressing consumption.
"The property sector downturn is hard-wired into the first half of 2023,"
reported the Rhodium Group last month, in an analysis on China's economic
prospects.
That means a downturn in first-half GDP is also hard-wired.
Third, the Chinese economy is far weaker than Beijing claims. The National
Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP grew 3.0% last year, but that is highly
unlikely.
More probably, as Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research tells Gatestone, the
economy in fact contracted. The poor economy, like the property downturn,
appears to have crimped consumer spending. The general downbeat mood of the
Chinese people will convince them to save more than analysts think.
Fourth, the regime during the pandemic did almost nothing to remedy the
principal structural flaw in the Chinese economy: the overreliance on government
spending, which over decades has resulted in overbuilding and therefore created
mountains of questionable debt. Gregory Copley, the president of the
International Strategic Studies Association, tells Gatestone that "the
fundamentals of the Chinese economy have already been destroyed, so the optimism
about the reversals of Communist Party policy on Covid management will be
short-lived."
"China is back," is how the Financial Times summarized the message of Vice
Premier Liu He to the just-completed World Economic Forum gathering in Davos.
Maybe so, but it is back to the old faulty economic structure.
"China is too optimistic about a quick economic turnaround in 2023 following the
Covid lockdowns," Andrew Collier, an analyst at Global Source Partners, said in
e-mail comments to this publication. "Local governments are running huge
financial deficits, many people are holding on to cash because they are worried
about their health, and the downturn in the property market has affected
people's retirement savings."
Collier, based in Hong Kong, thinks wealthy consumers may buy high-end imports
so the overall impact on the Chinese economy "will not be large."
Collier therefore believes there will not be an uptick until 2024.
In any event, Copley, also editor-in-chief of Defense & Foreign Affairs
Strategic Policy, says that "foreign analysts of mainland China's economy have
always engaged in wishful thinking, and there is now an air of desperation."
China is not going to have a good 2023 or a good 2024. Foreigners are going to
lose money in China again.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone
Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
د.ماجد رفي زاده/عرب نيوز: لهذه الأسباب يجب على
الاتحاد الأوروبي تصنيف الحرس الثوري الإيراني منظمة إرهابية
Why the EU should designate the IRGC a terrorist organization
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 30, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115383/dr-majid-rafizadeh-why-the-eu-should-designate-the-irgc-a-terrorist-organization-%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%af-%d8%b1%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%87-%d8%b9%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%88/
The time is long overdue for the EU to designate the Iranian regime’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization for several important
reasons. First of all, from a human rights perspective, the IRGC and its
paramilitary group, the Basij, are heavily involved in the suppression of
protesters. Recently revealed orders by the IRGC’s top brass, including
commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, to quickly crush the persistent ongoing
protests are perhaps the best illustration of the IRGC’s suppressive machinery
and its units.Mohammed Azimi and Kourosh Asiabani, who command IRGC units, have,
according to the US Department of State, “allegedly committed some of the worst
acts by Iranian security forces since the beginning of protests in September
2022. In Javanrud, a town in Kermanshah province, IRGC troops used live
ammunition, including from semi-heavy machine guns, to quell protests, killing
and wounding dozens. The IRGC has shelled vehicles attempting to deliver blood
bags to those wounded in local hospitals, preventing their delivery. (Mojtaba)
Fada, the IRGC commander of Isfahan Province and a member of its provincial
security council, has overseen the crackdown on regime opponents in Isfahan.”
In fact, in every major nationwide uprising in Iran, the IRGC has played a key
role in brutally crushing demonstrators, as well as harshly silencing opposition
to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in order to ensure the survival of the regime.
Amnesty International last month released an updated 48-page report titled
“Iran: Killings of children during youthful anti-establishment protests,”
detailing the killings of hundreds of protesters, including at least 44
children, by Iran’s IRGC, security forces and police. The report stated:
“Extensive video footage and leaked documents analyzed by Amnesty International
and numerous eyewitness accounts obtained by the organization indicate that
responsibility for the death of hundreds of protesters and bystanders, including
dozens of children, lies squarely with Iran’s security forces, including the
Revolutionary Guards, paramilitary Basij forces and police.”
The IRGC’s terrorist activities can be witnessed abroad as well. It has
supported various terror groups, including Al-Qaeda. In 2011, US District Judge
George Daniels held that “Iran, its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini
Khamenei, former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Iran’s
agencies and instrumentalities, including, among others, the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security,
and Iran’s terrorist proxy Hezbollah, all materially aided and supported
Al-Qaeda before and after 9/11.”
Furthermore, the IRGC’s elite branch, the Quds Force, deploys its proxies and
militia groups to attack the interests and assets of the US and its allies in
the Middle East, as well as in the soft underbelly of the US — Latin America. In
Iraq, the Quds Force exerts significant influence, whether direct or indirect,
through a conglomerate of 40 militia groups that operate under the banner of the
Popular Mobilization Units.
In every major nationwide uprising in Iran, the IRGC has played a key role in
brutally crushing demonstrators. The Quds Force is in charge of the Iranian
regime’s extraterritorial operations, which include organizing, supporting,
training, arming and financing Iran’s predominantly Shiite militia groups in
foreign countries; launching wars directly or indirectly via these proxies;
fomenting unrest in other nations to advance Iran’s ideological and hegemonic
interests; attacking and invading cities and countries; and assassinating
foreign political figures and prominent Iranian dissidents worldwide.
In addition, the Quds Force has been implicated in failed plans to bomb Saudi
and Israeli embassies and other targets, including an attempt in 2011 to
assassinate then-Saudi Ambassador to the US Adel Al-Jubeir. An investigation
revealed that the group was also behind the 2005 assassination of Lebanon’s
former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
The IRGC has also been engaged in the illegal smuggling of advanced weaponry to
its militias and proxies, such as the Houthis and Hezbollah, including kits that
can convert unguided rockets into precision-guided missiles. According to
Israeli intelligence, “the Iranian Al-Quds Force packs weapons, ammunition and
missile technology to Hezbollah in suitcases and puts them on Mahan Air flights
… These planes fly directly to the airport in Lebanon or Damascus and from there
the weapons are transferred on the ground to Hezbollah.”
The Washington office of opposition group the National Council of Resistance of
Iran has published a book on 15 terrorist training centers in Iran, where the
IRGC provides ideological, military and tactical training to foreign recruits,
who are later dispatched to countries in the Middle East and beyond to conduct
terrorist activities.In summary, it is crucial that the EU follows the European
parliament’s advice and designates the Iranian regime’s IRGC as a terrorist
organization in order to show its support for human rights and to counter the
IRGC and its proxies’ terror activities abroad.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political
scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
The Next Debate Over Arming Ukraine Is
Here—and It’s About Fighter Jets
Armani Syed/Time/January 30, 2023
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is adamant that Berlin will not provide fighter
jets to bolster Ukraine’s war efforts just days after Germany agreed to send
battle tanks to Kyiv.
Speaking in an interview with German newspaper Tagesspiegel published on Sunday,
Scholz said he was focused on delivering the promised tanks. “The question of
combat aircraft does not arise at all,” he said. “I can only advise against
entering into a constant competition to outbid each other when it comes to
weapons systems.”
The Chancellor also said that having a debate about fighter jets “seems
frivolous” when the country only decided Wednesday to send 80 Leopard 2 tanks to
Ukraine. It also allowed other European nations to send their own supplies of
the German-made tanks to Ukraine.
Andriy Yermak, the head of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office, said Germany’s
decision to supply tanks was a welcome “first step.” But focus has turned to
increasing the number of military aircrafts to defend against Russia’s invasion,
which approaches its one year anniversary in February.
Below, what to know about Ukrainian calls for Western fighter jets in the
conflict, and who is likely to provide them.
Why does Ukraine need fighter jets?
Ukraine currently relies on its Soviet-era fighter jets, which were made before
Kyiv declared independence from the Soviet Union over 31 years ago. These
aircrafts have been overpowered by Russia’s heavy duty jets that can fire
missiles from a long range without entering Ukrainian airspace.
Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andrii Melnyk has asked allied nations to
create a “fighter jet coalition” to match Russia’s supply. This would see
Ukraine equipped with F-16s and F-35s from the U.S., Eurofighters, Tornados,
French Rafales, and Swedish Gripen jets. Ukraine is also in need of helicopters,
former Ukraine President Petro
Justin Bronk, a researcher at the RUSI think tank in London, tweeted that the
Ukrainian Air Force would “absolutely benefit” from Western fighter jets “in
terms of air-to-air and (potentially) air-to-ground lethality.” But, Bronk
added, these jets would still be at high risk from Russian Surface-to-air
missiles (SAMs) and therefore would need to fly at low altitudes within “several
tens of kilometers of the front lines.”
Why is Germany reluctant to provide “kampfjets”?
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, said that talks about fighter jets
were taking place with allied nations but some held “a “conservative attitude”
that he said was “due to fear of changes in the international architecture.”
Podolyak did not single out Germany, which has been seen as more reluctant to
arm Ukraine since the war began.
On Wednesday, Moscow slammed Berlin’s decision to supply tanks to Ukraine and
accused Germany of abandoning its “historical responsibility to Russia,” an
apparent reference to Nazi crimes in World War II.
Scholz defended his cautionary approach to sending tanks on Wednesday, saying
that it “was right and it is right that we did not allow ourselves to be rushed”
into a decision. The news followed weeks of diplomacy between Germany, the
United States, and Western allies—which saw a concurrent announcement that the
U.S. would send 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
The Chancellor also told Tagesspiegel that he would continue to maintain
communication with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“For me it’s important that the conversations keep coming back to the main
point: how does the world get out of this terrible situation?” Scholz said. “The
condition for that is clear: the withdrawal of Russian troops.”
Which allies are likely to supply fighter jets?
Military officials are persuading the U.S. Pentagon to issue F-16 fighter jets
to Ukraine to defend against Russian attacks, Politico reported. Ukraine has
reportedly long-sought the American-made jet but the U.S. has instead favored
artillery, armor, and ground-based air defense systems.
The Biden administration has resisted calls for heavier weapons in the past,
over fears that such a move would be confrontational with Russia. Washington had
been lukewarm to calls to send the sophisticated but maintenance-heavy Abrams
tanks before Wednesday’s announcement.
While the U.S. is yet to reach a formal decision on whether to provide fighter
jets, an anonymous senior DoD official told Politico, “I don’t think we are
opposed.”
Additionally, over half a dozen Western military officials and diplomats
confirmed to the publication that fighter jet debates were underway and that
there was notable support from the Baltic states, which have been some of the
most ardent Western backers of Kyiv.
As the year unfolds, Ukraine could also be set to receive modern aircrafts as
Finland, Germany, and the Netherlands upgrade to U.S. F-35 fighters, Politico
reported.
What about the frigate Lübeck and Type 212A submarine?
Ukraine’s asks were not confined to the skies.
On Sunday, Melynk also called for Germany to send a decommissioned frigate
Lübeck and Type 212A submarine, to strengthen its military positions in the
Black Sea.
“Hi guys, I know I’m gonna get a new shit storm, but I have another creative
idea. Germany (ThyssenKrupp) produces one of the world’s best submarines HDW
Class 212A. The Bundeswehr has 6 such U-boats. Why not to send one to Ukraine?”
Melynk tweeted, saying that it would allow Ukraine to control the strategic body
of water.
The Iranian Monarchists Do Not Represent The
'Multinational Iran'
Himdad Mustafa/MEMRI Daily Brief No. 452/January 30/2023
Most of the opposition figures and groups want a new democratic republic to
replace the authoritarian Islamic Republic. However, it recently made the news
that a Persian-led group nostalgic for Iranian monarchy is endorsing exiled Reza
Pahlavi, son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran, to "lead a
transition" when the Islamic Republic falls. It was also reported that an online
campaign was launched to give power of attorney to Reza Pahlavi, who has not yet
apologized for the violation of human rights under the cruel Pahlavi
dictatorship (1925-1979).
This move was highly criticized, especially by Iran's minorities. In fact, many
Iranians do not think that Reza Pahlavi, the son of a dictator, is the right
person to lead a "transition." He was only 18 years old when he left Iran in
1979 and lived most of his life in the United States. He therefore has no
experience ruling a country. Nevertheless, Iranian monarchists seem to insist
that Reza Pahlavi is Iran's sole representative and that monarchy is the only
political system that should replace the Islamic Republic. This attitude makes
many people believe that the "transitional period" is just a euphemism for
"forever period," just as Ruhollah Khomeini was supposed to be a "temporary"
Supreme leader.
The Essence Of "Iranianness"
Qajar Iran, which preceded the Pahlavi dynasty, was made up of loosely connected
mamalek (i.e., kingdoms) with a great degree of political-economic independence
from the central government in Tehran. This was evident in the the Qajar
Empire's official name: Mamâlek-e Mahruse-ye Irân ("the Guarded Domains of
Iran"). The central power was not able to exercise its authority over the ethnic
kingdoms until the 1921 Persian coup d'état by Reza Shah Pahlavi who, in order
to homogenize a heterogeneous empire, undertook a forcible Persianization of
ethno-nations through ethnocide, linguicide, and violent wars and deportations.
A 1925 editorial published in the pro-Pahlavi Ayandeh ("Future") newspaper
explained that national unity could only be attained "by extending the Persian
language throughout the provinces; eliminating regional costumes; destroying
local and feudal authorities; and removing the traditional differences between
Kurds, Lurs, Qashqayis, Arabs, Turks, Turkomans, and other communities that
reside within Iran." The newspapers also added that "we will continue to live in
danger as long as we have no schools to teach Persian and Iranian history to the
masses... and no Persian equivalents to replace the many non-Persian names in
Iran. Unless we achieve national unity, nothing will remain of Iran."[1]
Iranian scholar Majid Sharifi stressed that "state elites represented Persian
language, history, and culture as the essence of Iranianness." Hence, "the rich
tapestry of other languages and dialects was represented as inferior,
incomplete, backward, and alien."[2]
The Islamic Republic that replaced the Pahlavi dynasty continued the
Persianization policy and "internal colonialization." It sought to create a
notion of Iranian identity that fused together both Islamiyat ("Muslimness") and
Iranyat ("Iranianness"). The Islamic Republic could therefore be defined as a
"religious Persian monarchy" that promoted Islamiyat, contrary to its
predecessor Pahlavi regime which was a "secular Persian monarchy." While the
state ideology of the Pahlavis was centered on "Persianism," the Islamic
Republic has adopted "Shi'ite-Persianism." [3]
Generally, the Pahlavists and Persian nationalists tend to portray the Islamic
Republic as "anti-Iranian" or "anti-Persian," portraying its leaders as
"non-Iranian" or "non-Persian." Rumors were even spread alleging that Khomeini
was Indian. This is done to hide the fact that the Islamic Republic is also
pursuing Persianization and to rally "Iranians" around Persian opposition groups
and figures, such as Reza Pahlavi.
The ideology of Iranyat is inherently exclusionist, as it demands the
assimilation of differences in religion, language, and ethnicity into a unitary
notion centered on Persianness. Consequently, ethno-nations are considered a
threat that undermines the project to unify the country under one Persian
nationalist identity.
For example, in 2019, Reza Pahlavi downplayed the right of minorities to study
in their mother tongue, stating that he does not see the "logic" of it, as he
does not find it possible for a country's national education system to be taught
in different languages other than in the official Persian language.[4] However,
as it has been pointed out by several democratic figures, the education and
teaching of the mother tongue along with an official and administrative language
can be embedded in the structure and education system of the country as happens
already in many Western countries.
Neither The Shah Nor The Mullahs
In early January 2023, for the first time, Reza Pahlavi called on Iranians to
give him the power of attorney to represent Iranians.[5] Pro-Pahlavi Persian
activists in the West have launched massive online campaigns and hashtags to
present Reza Pahlavi as the favored representative of all Iranians from all
walks of life.
Between February 17-27, 2022, The Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in
Iran (GAMAAN) carried out a survey, titled "Iranians' Attitudes toward Political
Systems." As reported on the GAMAAN website, the final sample used in the report
consisted of 16,850 Iranians living inside Iran, of whom 74.2% speak Persian at
home (which may imply that they are ethnically Persian). When asked about their
preferred type of government, 34% chose a "secular republic," 22% the "Islamic
republic," 19% a "constitutional monarchy," 3% an "absolute monarchy," and over
21% declared that they are "not sufficiently informed to answer this question."
However, 53% of those who chose "absolute monarchy" believe that the function of
the head of state is not for life, and only 27% of the proponents of
"constitutional monarchy" are in favor of "giving life tenure to the head of
state." Finally, 95% of those who chose a "secular republic" are "against life
tenure" for the head of state.
Iranian scholar Aidin Torkameh wrote: "If we turn our attention from the
mainstream media and focus on what is happening on the ground it appears that
the actual presence of the Pahlavists is not significant." "Their huge
propaganda machine has failed to fully reach the masses, and many segments of
the masses are actively rejecting it. It is worth noting that even this existing
level of support for the old Pahlavi regime should not be taken as the result of
an entirely organic process. Most of the pro-Pahlavi protesters are passive
defenders of the Pahlavis because alternative views have been eliminated. Their
worldview has been largely shaped by, and is limited to, the
nation-state-centric (Iranist/Farsist) viewpoint that has developed over the
past century," Torkameh said, adding that "in an open political environment
where progressive groups can operate freely, Pahlavi's supporters are likely to
become even less influential."[6]
This is also reflected in anti-regime protests, as one of the main slogans is "Marg
Ba Setamgar, Che Shah Bashe Che Rahbar [Death to the Dictator, Be it Shah or
Ayatollah]." This slogan refers to a 120-year-old historical struggle of all the
multi-national Iranian groups for freedom against dictatorial regimes that were
brought about after the 1905-1911 Constitutional Revolution.
It is worth noting that key figures of the Iranian opposition – such as the
president and spokesman of The Association of Victims' Families of Flight PS752,
Hamed Esmaeilion, actress Nazanin Boniadi, and activist Masih Alinejad, as well
as political figures and other groups that represent Iran's minorities – have
not endorsed Reza Shah.
London-based broadcaster Manoto TV (known for its "distinctive pro-Pahlavi
bent"[7]) recently claimed that Seyyed Nasreddin Heydari, a leader of the
Yarsani Kurdish community, has endorsed Reza Pahlavi. However, this news was
later refuted, as the source of the endorsement came from a fake Twitter
account. Kurdish journalist Kaveh Kermashani commented: "A media that, despite
the existence of possibilities, without the least knowledge and research, turns
the writing of a fake account into the desired news of its advertising machine,
is not only unprofessional but also unethical."[8]
Labor rights activist group Haft-Tappeh Factory Workers from Khuzistan described
the pro-monarchist coalition as a "one-sided, anti-majority, power-seeking
group," and added: "They are irrelevant to our real struggle. The practical
leaders of our struggle are ourselves and our imprisoned friends."[9]
Iran's Minorities Reject The Monarchy And Its Ideology
The majority of Iranian minoritized ethno-nations have remained very much
attached to their ethnic identity, prioritizing their ethnonational identities
over Persian-centered "Iranianness."
Since 1905, the incompatibility of the minority-majority positions has led to
heightened tensions that have regularly exploded in deadly and protracted ethnic
conflicts. In recent years, Iran has witnessed the rise of ethnonational
sentiment that has become a greater challenge for the Islamic Republic and the
"pan-Iranists" in the diaspora, as many members of ethnic minority groups such
as the Kurds, Balochs, and Ahwazi Arabs increasingly mobilize and push for
greater cultural and political rights.
As opposition groups in the diaspora are trying to form alliances to encounter
the Iranian regime, suppressed minorities have found themselves marginalized
once again as none of the Persian-led opposition groups have publicly addressed
minorities' demands.
Kurdish people in Iran assert that they will not allow another monarchist
authoritarian regime to exercise its control over Kurdistan, as they say that
there is no difference between the Pahlavi regime and the Islamic Republic. On
Twitter, a Kurdish activist, known by the name of Fariba, wrote: "It is time for
Kurdish political parties to form a united coalition with Lurs, [Azeri] Turks,
Baloch, Gilakis, Turkmen, Arab activists, parties and the leftist forces [i.e.,
non-monarchist forces] and with all [the forces] that are not represent by Reza
Pahlavi."[10] The user then called on the president and spokesman of The
Association of Victims' Families of Flight PS752, Hamed Esmaeilion, who has
expressed his support for Kurdistan, to lead this coalition, saying: "You can be
the center of gravity of this coalition, you are both sympathetic and known and
reliable among all these peoples, you are a symbol of sympathy and unity for
overthrowing the Islamic Republic."[11]
Ahwazi activist Wael Saffah further wrote: "First of all, the majority of people
in Iran [belong to] non-Persian nations, [and] reject centralism totally.
Second, none [of Iran's non-Persian nations] accept any more dictator[ial]
systems like [the] monarchy. The problem is [that] the Pahlavi family continues
living in their dreams supported by fake media."[12] In response to the online
campaign to give power of attorney to Reza Pahlavi, Saffah wrote: "The
supporters of the monarchy and the centrists once again voted to confiscate the
rights of the marginalized nations and went along with tyranny in order to
create a future for themselves by concentrating our power and accumulating our
looted wealth in the center. This hypocrisy puts the future of the country on a
dangerous path."[13]
Washington-based Ahwazi journalist and activist Rahim Hamid tweeted: "The ethnic
non-Persian political and human rights groups are completely marginalized, their
voices are censored, and even they are subjected to online bullying and threats
and even physical assaults by Shah Pahlavi supporters when attending rallies in
London and Washington D.C." He then added: "The voices and true demands of the
current protests in Iran are censored and misrepresented on a large scale by
Persian media and Shah Pahlavi supporters. The major demands are the
decentralization of Iran's future rule and the end of the ethnic oppression of
non-Persian nations... The current protests' demands in Iran are not merely on
individual civil liberties but the major issue is the cause of marginalized
peoples in Kurdistan, Ahwaz, Balochistan, and South Azerbaijan [that] endure
brutal ethnic oppression and fight for their national ethnic rights."[14]
Hamid also stressed: "Fanatic fans of the son of the former despotic Shah
Pahlavi... use social media in spontaneous clicktivism, prompting the
restoration of Shah's dark times to Iran. This group expresses their nostalgia
towards the Persian nationalist authoritarian rule. They have a clicktivist
cyber army that launches online petitions and hashtags in supporting the son of
the former dictator Shah. Their campaigns are backed by Persians TV channels.
This group of Persian nationalists is rejecting the national and ethnic rights
of Ahwazi Arabs, Kurds, Balochis, and Azerbaijani Turks."[15]
On January 20, 2023, during the Friday protests against the Islamic Republic,
Balochi protesters showed also their disdain for Reza Pahlavi, showing posters,
stating: "Reza Pahlavi is not our representative. Understand we have our own
parties," "Iran is a country of 70 nations. A coalition of parties. One person
[referring to Reza Pahlavi] is not an attorney for the whole country. Any
coalition of any kind, if it is going to happen, must be formed with all
parties," and "No to Mullah and No to the Shah; No to Pahlavi and No to Rajavi
[leader of the People's Mujahedin of Iran (MEK)]; IRGC Terrorists; Freedom."
A placard held by Baloch protesters reads: "Reza Pahlavi is not our
representative. Understand we have our own parties." (Source: Twitter)
A placard reads: "Iran is a country of 70 nations. A coalition of parties. One
person [referring to Reza Pahlavi] is not an attorney for the whole country. Any
coalition of any kind, if it is going to happen, must be formed with all
parties." (Source: Twitter)
It is also worth noting that, since the beginning of 2023, the hashtag #KurdistanRepublic
has trended on Twitter.
Pro-Monarchists Attack Hamed Esmaeilion On Social Media
Hamed Esmaeilion, who was born in the Kurdish city of Kermanshah, is an
Iranian-Canadian social activist, author, and dentist. On January 8, 2020,
Esmaeilion's wife, Parisa, and their only child, nine-year-old Reera, were
killed when Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp shot down Ukraine
International Airlines Flight 752 with two surface-to-air missiles, shortly
after it took off from Tehran's international airport. The missiles killed all
176 passengers and crew aboard.
Esmaeilion and a group of families of victims of Flight PS752 established The
Association of Victims' Families of Flight PS752. "The missions of our
Association are to unite the grieving families, keep the memories of the
passengers alive, and most importantly seek justice. We are determined to
uncover the truth and find out why a commercial flight was shot down by IRGC’s
missiles. We will staunchly seek justice until the culprits, perpetrators and
commanders of this atrocious crime are identified and brought to justice before
an impartial and independent court," wrote the association, headed by Esmaeilion.[16]
See MEMRI TV clip No. 10070, Iranian-Canadian Activist Hamed Esmaeilion At
Ceremony Commemorating Ukrainian Flight Downed By The IRGC: We Live For A Day
Without The Islamic Republic And Without The Criminals Who Ruin Beautiful Iran,
January 8, 2023.
In December 2022, in an article in the Washington Post, Iranian-American
journalist Jason Rezaian described Esmaeilion as "a moral leader" for Iranian
protesters in the diaspora: "Now Esmaeilion has become a leading voice outside
Iran in the anti-regime movement — an essential bridge between Iranians in the
diaspora who want to promote a freer future for their homeland and the millions
inside Iran who live under an abusive system that has long operated with
impunity."[17]
It is actually worth mentioning that Esmaeilion was the main figure behind the
organization of the October rally in Berlin against the Islamic Republic that
gathered 80,000 participants, which was "the largest gathering in history of
Iranians" opposing the Islamic Republic.[18] Addressing the Berlin rally,
Esmaeilion said: "We have a dream that will be realized with the fall of
Khamenei's empire of fear and crime. In this dream, the wind will blow through
women's hair, and no one will attack schoolgirls."[19]
However, since Esmaeilion did not state that he gives the power of attorney to
Reza Pahlavi (as football legend Ali Karimi did), many pro-monarchists have
tried to tear his image. Accusations leveled against him have included among
others being "a lover of the IRGC,"[20] despite the fact that he has repeatedly
condemned the Iranian agency and called on Western governments to designate it
as a terrorist organization in its entirety.[21]
After writing a tweet in Kurdish to condolence the father of Hooman Abdullahi
from Kermanshah, who was killed by the regime, Esmaeilion was accused by many
pro-monarchists of "promoting separatism," and of "causing sedition" among
Iranians.[22]
"Dear father of Hooman Abdullahi, my brother, as you said, we have no weapons
other than our tongue. We will overthrow the murderers and bring them to
justice. Thank you for remembering me. We will keep the memory of Hooman and all
those who were killed in our homeland alive. Long live Kurdistan, long live
Iran." (Source: Twitter)
An Iranian woman tweeting under the name of @JinaFreeIran wrote: "Dr. Esmaeilion...
is one of the most respected and courageous figures of this revolution... He has
many supporters inside and outside Iran, including Kurds who started this
revolution. We, who support him, are constantly being attacked by Pahlavi fans
on tweeter."[23] She then added: "[The 2022] Iranian revolution is to bring
peace and democracy to Iran, but Pahlavi's fans have already shown that all they
care [about] is to push their agenda..."[24]
An Iranian Bahai user, Syed Jamal Shervin Ashrafi, also stated: "It seems that
Prince Reza Pahlavi's fans are looking at Hamed Esmaeilion as [his] a
competitor... for this reason they are trying to destroy his image... This kind
of behavior shows the true face of [the] Prince's fans."[25]
"QasemShahrists"
In a 2017 interview with the Israeli channel i24, Reza Pahlavi said: "The most
important component of this [regime] change would be the tacit cooperation of
the existing military and paramilitary forces [i.e. the Basij] in this scenario
of change... Today, the Iranian people...demand some kind of intervention from
the international community rushing to their support... As you can realize, it
is very difficult to overcome extremely repressive regimes by simply relying on
peaceful disobedience, it has to be at some point an element of protection for
the people. Now, this element of protection can only come from the military and
paramilitary forces. I am not saying that all of them will come in, but a great
majority of them will join with the people if they know they can survive beyond
this regime... they'll have a place in the future and in fact become the
protective shield should the remainder of the regime try to pursue a policy of
genocide like Bashar Assad did against his own citizenry and at the same time
not be in no man's land."[26]
In a 2019, interview with VOA, Reza Pahlavi also stated: "Are all Sepah [i.e.
IRGC] terrorists? No. And this is the reason, I tell Iranians who are in
uniform, whether in the military, Sepah, Basij: Dear Sir, the time has come to
back away from these forces and join the Iranian people. You guys are not
terrorists, you guys are people in Iran, who have stood face-to-face with the
Iraqi army and fought in a war.[27] You sacrificed your lives. You have given
martyrs, both in the military and in the Sepah. You guys are part of the Iranian
people."[28]
Most recently, in a 2023 interview with the German TV Channel, Deutsche Welle,
Reza Pahlavi's stances were slightly modified. In the past, he used to say that
the military, the Basij, and the "current Sepah" would be the ones to preserve
peace, once the ruling system would be replaced. Instead in a recent interview,
Reza Pahlavi stated that the IRGC was the problem, but not the Iranian military:
"As a matter of fact, I think most Iranians know that the Iranian military [has]
never been against the people. In fact, from the very beginning, when the IRGC
was created it was a mechanism of guarantee [for] the regime's survival because
the regime did not trust the military. The IRGC was not created to support the
country The IRGC became a mechanism with a mandate to export an ideological
revolution. It is not the military that opposes the people. It is the IRGC that
is a major problem."[29] Reza Pahlavi also tweeted: "Our request is clear: put
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on the terrorist list," using the
hashtag #IRGCterrorists.[30]
Online users consider many of Reza Pahlavi's positions to be contradictory. Some
people even coined the sarcastic term "QasemShahrists" to refer to
ultranationalists. The term relates to the Sassanian concept of "Eranshahr,"
meaning the land and empire of Iran, and to the fact that the
ultranationalists/monarchists call themselves Eranshahrists. Claiming that the
ultranationalists/monarchists are just another version of IRGC commander Qasem
Soleimani in terms of extremism, Pahlavi's critics refer to them as
QasemShahrists instead of Eranshahrists. However, a QasemShahrists is a term
also used to define ultranationalists/monarchists as people with contradicting
positions that are ready to use all means to reach power.
Commenting on the attitude of "QasemShahrists" toward minorities, and in
particular towards Ahwazis, Iranian activist Ali Ebrahimzadeh wrote: "Now #QasemShahrists
say we do not have a minority at all! Someone wrote a while ago that we do not
have Arabs in Iran at all! [And that] They are Arabic-speaking Iranians!"
"I see that people have forgotten what kind of a person a QasemShahrist is.
Friends, a QasemShahrist is more or less such a person:" (Source: Twitter)
Many Iranian users have also criticized a recent video broadcast by London-based
Manoto TV, known for its pro-Pahlavi stances, in which a female reporter stated:
"I thank the men, we, myself and many like me, are ready to hold a (democratic)
referendum together with Reza Pahlavi and the people of the revolution and of
the Revolutionary Guards. And I say to the members of the Revolutionary Guards,
we were never dependent on the West and never will be."[31]
Conclusion
The monarchists form a minority group in Iranian politics. Furthermore, as a
Persian-centrist political group, they do not represent the country's
ethno-nations that comprise almost half of Iran's population. In view of the
pro-monarchists' approach to minorities' demands, a new Iran ruled by the
monarchy is unlikely to undergo major changes in terms of minorities' rights and
democratic rule of law. Hence, it is important to heed lessons from the past to
avoid repeating the same mistakes that led to the creation of the current
situation in Iran.
It is important for the international community to pursue a "periphery
strategy," i.e., supporting the ethnic minorities found in Iran's border
regions. This will achieve two goals. First, ethnic minorities would finally
enjoy the freedom and human rights they have been deprived of since the early
20th century. Second, this would ensure that any new regime in Iran would not be
able to continue regional expansionism in the Middle East.[32]
Iran's minorities – which are largely sidelined by the Persian opposition – aim
to establish independent ethno-states or at least a decentralized entity, based
on democratic confederalism, which could work as a temporary, transitional,
intergovernmental project in a post-Ayatollah Iran until the establishment of
new ethno-states in the Kurdistan, Balochistan, Khuzestan, and Caspian
regions.[33]
It is worth noting that pro-monarchy media outlets do not provide a realistic
picture of the demands of the "multinational Iran." Furthermore, many of these
media continue to whitewash the crimes committed by the repressive Pahlavi
dynasty – among others including the building of the notorious Evin prison in
1972 – and their widespread corruption that led to the Iranian revolution in
1979.
* Himdad Mustafa is a Kurdish scholar and expert on Kurdish and Iranian affairs.
[1] Majid Sharifi, Imagining Iran: The Tragedy of Subaltern Nationalism.
Plymouth: Lexington Books, 2013, pp.79-80.
[2] Majid Sharifi, Imagining Iran: The Tragedy of Subaltern Nationalism,
Plymouth: Lexington Books, 2013, pp.80-1.
[3] Near East/South Asia Report, Issue 2765, Foreign Broadcast Information
Service, 1983, page 96.
[4] Azadi-b.com/arshiw/?p=74886, August 3, 2019.
[5] Iranintl.com/en/202301227710, January 22, 2023.
[6] Links.org.au/rhythm-revolution-iran-name-zhina-mahsa-amini, November 3,
2022.
[7] Politico.com, December 14, 2018.
[8] Twitter.com/KavehKermashani/status/1615735194215907329, January 18, 2023.
[9] Instagram.com/p/Cm610r-Ncis/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y%3D, January 2, 2023.
[10] Twitter.com/fariba312/status/1616025505676857344, January 19, 2023.
[11] Twitter.com/fariba312/status/1616041911961391109, January 19, 2023.
[12] Twitter.com/Waelsaffah/status/1560383171002351616, August 19, 2022.
[13] Twitter.com/Waelsaffah/status/1615902238215639040?cxt=HHwWgMDQycah6-wsAAAA,
January 19, 2023.
[14] Twitter.com/samireza42/status/1616285457607696387, January 20, 2023.
[15] Twitter.com/samireza42/status/1616282098805116930, January 20, 2023.
[16] Ps752justice.com/about/
[17] Washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/28/iran-protests-leader-hamed-esmaeilion/,
December 28, 2022.
[18] Lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/10/24/tens-of-thousands-of-iranians-march-in-berlin-against-the-regime_6001581_4.html,
October 24, 2022.
[19] Iranintl.com/en/202210222845, October 22, 2022.
[20] Twitter.com/amirancan/status/1614733940425728007, January 15, 2023.
[21] Twitter.com/esmaeilion/status/1615739420795174914?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet,
January 18, 2023.
[22] Twitter.com/esmaeilion/status/1615044304061300736, January 16, 2023.
[23] Twitter.com/JinaFreeIran/status/1609267617222508545, December 31, 2022.
[24] Twitter.com/JinaFreeIran/status/1609268806068862976, December 31, 2022.
[25] Twitter.com/Shervin_Ashrafi/status/1613816668420988929, January 13, 2023.
[26] Youtube.com/watch?v=jkU5G1LqPY4, May 25, 2017.
[27] As reported in Reza Pahlavi's website: "As an accomplished jet fighter
pilot, Reza Pahlavi volunteered to serve his country's military as a fighter
pilot during the Iran-Iraq War, but was declined by the clerical regime."
En.rezapahlavi.org/aboutrezapahlavi/
[28] Youtube.com/watch?v=Epv_erSjK7U,April 9, 2019.
[29] Twitter.com/PahlaviReza/status/1614406319481708544, January 15, 2023.
[30] Twitter.com/PahlaviReza/status/1614698938468282369?cxt=HHwWgsDR6aSIyOgsAAAA,
January 15, 2023.
[31] Twitter.com/ManotoNews/status/1618286826942517249, January 25, 2023.
[32] See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 428, The Islamic Republic Of Iran Will Collapse
Only If Its Ethnic Minorities Are Supported, November 11, 2022.
[33] See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 426, A Roadmap Towards Confederalism For The
Future Of Iran, November 3, 2022.
West’s Iran dilemma means standoff likely to
persist
Chris Doyle/Arab News/January 30, 2023
How to deal with Iran? This is the problem nobody quite knows how to solve. Some
states ignore what Iran is up to and appear not to care. Others oppose it but
cannot agree on how to address the situation. They fear being sucked into
another calamitous Middle East imbroglio.
Last week, the EU imposed its fourth round of sanctions against Iranian targets
since the current round of protests kicked off in Iran last September. The US is
also ramping these up, as is Britain. Those states that have not yet done so are
considering whether to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a
terrorist entity. The UK may do this in weeks, if not days, not least after
British officials claimed in October that the IRGC had orchestrated at least 10
plots to kidnap or murder in the country in 2022.
All of this confirms what most observers have long believed: The talks on the
nuclear file are going nowhere. US President Joe Biden confirmed this in
December, when he was filmed stating that the “deal is dead, but we’re not going
to announce it.” The US midterm elections hammered another nail into the coffin,
as the Iranians know that they may face a hard-line Republican president in 2025
who is opposed to any deal. Nobody wants to declare the last rites just in case
a miracle comes to pass. The fear is that, if the Iranian leadership wants it,
Iran will cross the nuclear threshold. Even Israeli strategists privately admit
that the region may have to learn to live with a nuclear Iran, as frightening a
prospect as that is.
Internally, the Iranian regime is crushing what is left of any optimism to
resolve its checkered relations with the US and its European allies. It is
cracking down on protesters in the most brutal fashion, resorting to mass
arrests and executions. The death penalty is being used as a weapon of mass
intimidation. As ever, everything is blamed on shadowy foreign hands. Reports
suggest Iran may even execute a pregnant woman who is accused of burning a
photograph of Ayatollah Khomeini.
It is policymakers’ greatest fear that actions in the Gulf could lead to a
situation careening out of control
The clear message to all those who oppose this regime both inside and outside
the country is that it is going nowhere. There is a steep cost to opposing it.
Thus far, since Mahsa Amini was killed in detention back in September, Iranian
forces have killed hundreds and arrested thousands.
Externally, Iran is also not backing off. It remains active in Syria and Iraq.
It continues to supply weapons to the Houthis. It may even be pushing
Palestinian Islamic Jihad to take the fight to the Israelis in the West Bank and
Gaza. The decision to supply Russia with drones and rockets for use in Ukraine
is hardly designed to impress the US. Tehran could have taken a neutral stance
and kept well clear of a fight that it is not involved in, but clearly the
Iranian leadership wants to cozy up to President Vladimir Putin and demonstrate
its capabilities to NATO states.
Iranian leaders arguably have a vested interest in keeping the war in Ukraine
going because, as long as Russia and the US face off in Europe, the option of
any military intervention in Iran is simply off the cards. Nobody can be sure
where a military option would land up. An accidental war is a dangerous
possibility, given the complete lack of trust on all sides.
Imagine the consequences of a war. The global financial system can barely handle
the shockwaves of the Ukraine crisis in terms of escalating energy and food
prices. Most economies are buckling under these pressures. No serious leader
wants a war in the Gulf and the consequent apocalyptic impact on the global
economy. If Israel took unilateral action, it would risk a monumental falling
out with Washington. It is policymakers’ greatest fear that actions in the Gulf
could lead to a situation careening out of control. Few are gung-ho.
The Iranian leadership knows this. It explains the boldness of its approach. It
has lived with the specter of a military strike for many years, remembering that
President Donald Trump in 2019 called back US planes 10 minutes before they were
due to strike Iran.
So, what are the options to handle a more assertive and problematic Iranian
regime? It is not as if American and European politicians are hugely divided
about Iran. Last week, the US House of Representatives voted 420-1 to express
solidarity with Iranian protesters. And given the cross-party support, the
British Parliament is likely to approve any designation of the IRGC.
Sanctions are the easy opt-out, as in the past. Sanctions were the tool of
choice when dealing with Iraq under Saddam Hussein and Syria under Bashar Assad.
The US, EU and UK will never want to look weak, so will have a carousel of new
sanctions targets ready to wheel out at appropriate junctures. Iran is quite
used to this. The IRGC and others have their own lucrative sources of income,
including through organized crime and smuggling. For a long time, they have
sanctions-proofed their key assets and income streams. Sanctions have a poor
record of altering the behavior of such regimes, especially as time goes by. The
regimes adapt and even make profits from the embargoes. It is the people who
suffer.
Others call for the withdrawal of ambassadors or the closure of embassies.
Unquestionably, the Iranian regime’s behavior justifies this. But there is more
than an element of empty virtue signaling here. Does Iran really care? For
example, if Britain was to close its embassy again, the UK would lose its eyes
and ears in Iran and not be able to provide any assistance to British nationals.
Precedent shows that it will not change the regime’s behavior.
All this points to the absence of a genuine strategy. In fairness, easy options
are in short supply. Negotiations are nigh on impossible. Killing off the
nuclear talks might be pointless so preserving these faint chances might appeal.
Iran will not cave into pressure and has its own menu of demands, few of which
are acceptable in Western capitals.
The greatest threat to Iran comes from within and the regime knows it. Despite
all the oppression and brutality, Iranian protesters led by women have shaken
the regime and made the world sit up. Their bravery is testament to the sort of
future Iran could have. The international community should find a way to back
their protests without undermining their legitimacy or diluting the
Iranian-owned nature of their cause. Iran, of course, could adopt a major course
correction internally and externally, but sadly this seems unlikely. A dangerous
and precarious standoff looks likely to persist.
*Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in
London. Twitter: @Doylech
Arab Gulf States Shift Toward More Harmonious
Relations
Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute./January 30/ 2023
After years of simmering tension, the recent evidence of positive change cannot
be ignored.
For more than six years, relations between the Arab Gulf states have been
defined by mutual antagonism. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and
the United Arab Emirates—all U.S. partners and members of the Gulf Cooperation
Council—have been divided by interstate squabbles that undermined Washington’s
efforts to address the growing terrorist and nuclear threat from Iran.
The main quarrel was Qatar’s rift with Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE,
which erupted in mid-2017 when Doha was accused of supporting terrorism and
Iran. In response, the other countries cut off diplomatic and commercial
contacts—a ban that was not formally lifted until January 2021, when Saudi crown
prince Muhammad bin Salman (aka MbS) apparently decided it had gone on too long.
Yet Bahrain and the UAE retained a harsher view of Doha, and a cloud still hung
over Gulf relations.
In the past two weeks, however, several developments have occurred that suggest
things have improved radically. First, on January 18, the UAE’s President
Muhammad bin Zayed hosted an informal meeting in Abu Dhabi with Bahrain’s King
Hamad, Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, Jordan’s King Abdullah, Oman’s
Sultan Haitham, and Qatar’s Emir Tamim. Given Zayed’s stance on the Gulf rift,
Tamim’s presence was astonishing. Also notable was the inclusion of Haitham, who
has been a reluctant traveler much like his predecessor, Sultan Qaboos. MbS was
absent, which may be significant as well—though just how is unclear at this
point.
Then, on January 25, King Abdullah prefaced his trip to Canada and the United
States with a flight to Qatar for dinner with Emir Tamim. The same day, Tamim
spoke by phone with Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad.
Two days later, Jordan’s Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah was seen on social
media visiting a restaurant with MbS at the Saudi historic site al-Ula. Hussein
is engaged to marry the daughter of a Saudi non-royal billionaire and seems to
be his father’s agent in improving relations with Riyadh. The two princes were
joined by Sheikh Theyazin bin Haitham, son of Oman’s sultan and the country’s de
facto crown prince.
On January 29, the Bahraini, Jordanian, and Omani crown princes were in Riyadh
to watch the Formula E electric car race with MbS, where they were joined by a
smiling Emir Tamim. This was the Qatari leader’s first informal visit to the
kingdom in several years, and is probably best explained as a response to the
Saudi prince’s breakthrough visit to Doha last November for the opening ceremony
of the World Cup.
Judging what exactly this onslaught of chummy meetings signifies is hard. As the
old cliche suggests, there seem to be many moving parts.
One factor is probably dissatisfaction with Washington and its perceived lack of
commitment to Gulf security. These states may have decided that local squabbles
are no longer a luxury they can afford.
Another factor may be specific to Egypt and Jordan—namely, a desperate need to
secure economic aid that is no longer guaranteed by Gulf oil producers, who are
currently enjoying record revenues. At the annual World Economic Forum meeting
in Davos earlier this month, Saudi finance minister Mohammed al-Jadaan stated
that the kingdom was changing its policy of “no strings attached” aid.
For Washington, these developments challenge U.S. policy but also offer
opportunities in terms of their apparent realism. Despite the ample diplomatic
bandwidth currently being taken up by Iranian threats and the latest
Israeli-Palestinian tensions, U.S. policymakers still have room to revitalize
relations with the Gulf states. This is particularly true on the personal level
(which is often so crucial in the region), but also in terms of reinforcing the
reality of American commitment on a military level.
*Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on
Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute.
The EU Can, and Should, Designate the IRGC as
a Terrorist Group
Matthew Levitt/The Washington Institute/January 30/2023
Legitimate policy debates aside, and contrary to recent statements by the EU’s
foreign policy chief, Europe has more than enough legal authority and evidence
to designate the organization.
The European Parliament voted overwhelmingly in favor of a measure calling for
the European Union to designate the IRGC, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps, as a terrorist organization on Jan. 18. The vote was 598 to 9, with 31
absentees. Just the previous day, European Commission President Ursula von der
Leyen spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos and publicly backed the idea of
an EU designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization. But when EU foreign
ministers met in Brussels just a few days later to discuss the issue, they opted
to add more individual names to the bloc’s list of people sanctioned for human
rights abuses rather than to list the IRGC as a terrorist group.
The reason, according to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, is that such a
designation first requires a decision by a European court. “It is something that
cannot be decided without a Court. A Court decision [is needed] first. You
cannot say: ‘I consider you a terrorist because I do not like you.’ It has to be
[done] when a Court of one [of the EU] Member States issues a legal statement, a
concrete condemnation. And then we work at the European level, but it has to be
first a Court decision.”
This, however, is not the case. There is no shortage of evidence—all admissible
under the rules underpinning the EU terrorist designation process—to support
designating the IRGC as a terrorist group.
The EU’s Designation Process Explained
The EU’s legal basis for designating a terrorist group is Common Position 931,
or CP 931, created in 2001 as a means of implementing U.N. Security Council
Resolution 1373, which requires member states to implement measures to “prevent
and suppress the financing of terrorist acts.” Under Resolution 1373, states are
called upon to criminalize terror financing, freeze the funds or other assets of
those who commit or facilitate terrorist acts “without delay,” and prevent those
engaged in such activities from using one state’s territory to “finance, plan,
facilitate or commit terrorist acts against other states or their citizens.”
Under CP 931, any person, group, or entity involved in terrorist acts can be
designated “when a decision has been taken by a competent authority in respect
of the person, group or entity concerned.” Such a “decision,” the EU’s fact
sheet on CP 931 explains, could be the instigation of an investigation or
prosecution for either a terrorist act or even just an attempt to carry out or
facilitate such an act “based on serious and credible evidence or clues.” The
fact sheet adds that designations can also be based on “condemnation for such
deeds,” even without a conviction. The “EU Terrorist List” policy document on
the European Council’s website notes that a terrorist designation must be based
on “precise information indicating that a decision has been made by a judicial
or equivalent competent authority” concerning the initiation of an
investigation, the prosecution of a terrorist for an attempt to carry out or
facilitate such an act, or the conviction for any of those actions.
In other words, an EU designation can be based on a court conviction or even a
condemnation by a court, but a court decision is not a necessary condition for
designation. CP 931 states that a judicial authority or “an equivalent competent
authority” can issue such a decision. Moreover, even just the initiation of an
investigation could suffice to support a designation, and these would be carried
out by police or other investigative authorities, prosecutors, national
designating authorities, or others.
Moreover, contrary to Borrell’s statement, CP 931 specifically notes that a
proposed terrorist listing can be made on the basis of third-party information,
not just EU member state information: “Persons groups and entities can be added
to the list on the basis of proposals submitted by member states based on a
decision by a competent authority of a member state or a third country.” In
fact, when listings are made on the basis of information from a non-EU member
state, it is specifically the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and
Security Policy—that is, Josep Borrell—who is supposed to initiate the
designation proposal, according to CP 931 guidelines.
As several European officials have recently noted, the European Court of Justice
specifically clarified that investigations or convictions from outside the EU
can also be used to justify adding a group to the EU’s terror list. On this
basis, investigations and prosecutions—and in some cases designations by other
countries or multilateral bodies—could qualify as well. The U.S. Justice
Department has conducted such investigations that could help build the basis for
EU designation, as I discuss below.
At the end of the day, while a proposal to designate an entity is made to the
European Council, the final decision is up to the 27 EU member states, which
must vote unanimously in favor of adopting a designation. (Unanimity is the
voting rule with the European Council on all foreign policy matters, whereas
other matters, like trade policy, require only a qualified majority.) In
practice, the European Council is reluctant to initiate any processes requiring
unanimous agreement if it is not certain that all member states are willing to
discuss it. In other words, the absence of a debate over something like
designating the IRGC as a terrorist group is itself a symptom of the lack of
unity among member states on the issue.
Evidentiary Basis for Designating the IRGC
In addition to there being no structural impediments to designating the IRGC as
a terrorist group, there is significant evidentiary basis for such a designation
under the common position. CP 931 defines “terrorist acts” and offers a list of
examples, such as “attacks upon a person’s life which may cause death,”
kidnapping or hostage taking, the “manufacture, possession, acquisition,
transport, support or use” of weapons or explosives, and participating in the
activities of a terrorist group. To be considered terrorist acts, they must be
carried out with the aim of “seriously intimidating a population” or “unduly
compelling a government or international organization to perform or abstain from
performing any act.” A terrorist act could even be one aimed at “seriously
destabilizing or destroying the fundamental political, constitutional, economic
or social structures” of a country or an international organization.
By any measure, the IRGC is actively engaged in exactly these types of
activities, both in Europe and beyond. According to a data set maintained by
this author of Iranian foreign operations (including assassination, abduction,
and surveillance plots), over just the past five years Iran has instigated at
least 33 plots in Europe. These include plots in EU member states like Cyprus,
Denmark, France, Germany, and the Netherlands. Other plots elsewhere in Europe
occurred in Albania, Sweden, and the U.K. In each of these cases, investigations
have been opened, and in many cases judicial authorities are engaged in active
prosecutions targeting IRGC and other Iranian operatives. Consider, for example,
the assassination plot targeting Bernard-Henri Levy in France; the plot
targeting an Iranian dissident rally in Paris in 2018; plots surveilling and
targeting Iranian dissidents in Albania, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden,
Scotland, and the U.K.; and attacks on German synagogues in North
Rhine-Westphalia. According to a recent report issued by Austria’s Federal
Office for the Protection of the Constitution and Counterterrorism, Iranian
intelligence services—including the IRGC’s intelligence organization and its
Quds Force—have spread in the country.
Beyond Europe, the latest evidence of Iranian terrorist plotting abroad came out
last Friday, when senior U.S. officials gathered for a press conference to
reveal the indictment and arrest of three criminals charged with the attempted
murder-for-hire of an American-Iranian journalist in New York. The three were
part of an organized criminal organization based in Eastern Europe with ties to
Iran. The leader of the group, who was based in Iran, was enlisted by Iranian
agents in 2022 to assassinate the victim in the United States. Speaking at the
press conference, FBI Director Christopher Wray underscored that this was an
Iranian terrorist plot: “The conduct charged shows how far Iranian actors are
willing to go to silence critics, even attempting to assassinate a U.S. citizen
on American soil.”
In August, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted IRGC personnel behind
assassination plots targeting former senior U.S. government officials in the
United States, among others. In 2019, two Iranian operatives pleaded guilty to
charges stemming from their surveillance activities targeting Iranian dissidents
and Jewish targets in the United States. More recently, the IRGC agreed to pay
an assassin $300,000 to kill John Bolton and offered $1 million for the
assassination of former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, according to the FBI
affidavit underpinning the Department of Justice criminal complaint against IRGC
officer Shahram Poursafi. Poursafi is wanted by the FBI and is accused of the
precise crimes the EU considers terrorist acts, including murder-for-hire and
attempting to provide support for terrorist acts. In other cases, U.S. officials
indicted four Iranian operatives on kidnapping charges after they plotted to
kidnap Masih Alinejad, an American citizen of Iranian descent, from New York and
forcibly remove her to Iran, via Venezuela, “where the victim’s fate would have
been uncertain at best,” as the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New
York put it. According to U.S. authorities, the Iranian official behind this
plot directs a broader network of Iranian operatives actively targeting victims
in other countries, including Canada, the U.K., and the United Arab Emirates.
Several months later, police arrested a man with a loaded assault rifle near
Alinejad’s home. Moments earlier, he stood on her front porch taking photos or
video with his phone, footage of which was captured on her door camera. This
man, along with two others, are the defendants charged with murder-for-hire last
Friday.
Both in the U.K. and Canada, law enforcement officials have reached out to
members of the Iranian expatriate community warning them that Iranian agents may
try to target them. Canadian Security Intelligence Service agents have warned
Canadian citizens of Iranian descent that “Iran had developed a list of people
living abroad whom it deemed a threat to the regime” and encouraged them to take
precautions. The British government filed an Interpol notice stating that IRGC
operatives were involved in planning “lethal operations against Iranian
dissidents in the UK in 2020.” According to the head of Britain’s MI5 security
service, there were at least 10 Iranian kidnap or assassination plots targeting
British or U.K.-based persons from January to November 2022. In other words,
there is no shortage of European and other credible investigations,
prosecutions, and even convictions related to IRGC terrorism around the world
and in Europe.
Not all national administrative designations, however, would qualify as a
“judicial or equivalent competent authority” based on recent legal precedent. A
Nov. 30, 2022, judgment issued by the Court of First Instance of the European
Court of Justice in PKK v. Council of the EU ruled that U.S. administrative
designation decisions are not admissible because they do not sufficiently
guarantee the applicant’s rights of defense. This means that the EU could not
rely on the 2019 U.S. designation of the IRGC as a terrorist group. However, the
ruling did allow for the use of actions taken by administrative (as opposed to
judicial) authorities when they are “vested in national law” with restrictive
powers such as designations, noting the applicability of the U.K. home secretary
as a “competent authority.” It remains an open question whether the EU could
rely on Canada’s 2012 designation of the IRGC’s Quds Force, its 2022
announcement listing the IRGC as inadmissible to Canada for engaging in
terrorism and human rights abuses, or the Saudi Arabian and Bahraini decisions
to list the IRGC as a terrorist group.
The EU should be able to rely on its own designation decisions targeting the
IRGC for terrorism-related activities, such as the 2020 measure targeting Iran
for its activities in Syria. That measure included Iran’s Quds Force, which the
EU defined as “a specialist arm of the IRGC.” That designation noted that the
IRGC’s Quds Force helps the Syrian regime terrorize its own people. The EU has a
long record of designating IRGC officials, in part to prevent terrorist
financing. A 2012 EU measure specifically highlighted the IRGC Quds Force as
being “responsible for operations outside Iran” and as Tehran’s principal tool
“for special operations and support to terrorist groups.”
Benefits of Designating the IRGC
An EU designation would make it a criminal offense to belong to the IRGC,
support the group, attend its meetings, or display its logo in public. Beyond
criminalizing such activities, an EU designation would subject the IRGC to
“enhanced measures relating to police and judicial cooperation in criminal
matters” and make any funds the group maintains in Europe subject to an asset
freeze. In addition, no funds or economic resources could be made available to
any part of the group, directly or indirectly. The resolution adopted by the
European Parliament also called for an expansion of travel sanctions to target
all Iranian leadership.
Designating the IRGC would do more than just serve as a messaging campaign. Iran
engages in activities the EU defines as “terrorist acts”—even at times of
sensitive negotiations and even when it may be exposed as the culprit—because
Iranian officials believe they can do so at little to no cost. As evidenced by
its continuous pursuit of violent activity, Iran assesses the potential benefits
of such actions to be high, whereas the costs of getting caught are low. If the
EU were to seriously hold Iran to account for the acts of terrorism it has been
carrying out over recent years and months, both in Europe and beyond, Iranian
leaders would be forced to reconsider their cost-benefit analysis and the
utility of such aggressive and malign policies as plotting to murder and abduct
people on the streets of Europe.
Conclusion
The IRGC should be designated as a terrorist organization only on the basis of
the terrorist activities it carries out and the material support it provides to
its terrorist proxies. Iran’s grave human rights abuses and provision of drones
used by Russia to target Ukraine are better addressed using sanctions
authorities specific to human rights or other applicable violations.
And there are serious issues to debate when it comes to such a designation. As
the EU debates designating the IRGC, a parallel discussion has been taking place
in the U.K., which, while no longer an EU member state, plans to proscribe the
IRGC on terrorism grounds after debate in the U.K. Parliament also demonstrated
broad, cross-party support for proscribing the IRGC. In the U.K., other policy
issues came up for debate, such as whether such an action would undermine
existing U.K. sanctions authorities. The U.K. government’s Independent Reviewer
of Terrorism Legislation posted a legal note cautioning against proscribing the
IRGC for technical legal rather than policy reasons. In the end, it appears the
U.K. government will nonetheless designate the IRGC.
Some may not want to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization for fear of
Iranian retaliatory sanctions or in the interest of keeping open prospects for
renewed negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal. Those are legitimate policy
debates. But as a matter of legal standards, the EU has more than enough
authority and admissible evidence to designate the IRGC.
EU foreign policy chief Borrell is not wrong when he says that the EU cannot
designate the IRGC just on the basis of not liking the organization. But he is
patently wrong when he asserts that a designation cannot take place until a
court in an EU member state issues a judicial ruling against the group. There is
ample evidence admissible within the CP 931 framework of the IRGC engaging in
what the EU defines as “terrorist acts,” both in Europe and around the world.
*Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Fellow and director of the Reinhard Program
on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute. This article
was originally published on the Lawfare website.