English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 30/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
God Of mercies and all consolation, consoles us in all our affliction, so that we may be able to console those who are in any affliction
Second Letter to the Corinthians 01/03-07/:”Blessed be the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ, the Father of mercies and the God of all consolation, who consoles us in all our affliction, so that we may be able to console those who are in any affliction with the consolation with which we ourselves are consoled by God. For just as the sufferings of Christ are abundant for us, so also our consolation is abundant through Christ. If we are being afflicted, it is for your consolation and salvation; if we are being consoled, it is for your consolation, which you experience when you patiently endure the same sufferings that we are also suffering. Our hope for you is unshaken; for we know that as you share in our sufferings, so also you share in our consolation.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 29-30/2023
Al-Rahi calls on Bitar to continue his work, seek int'l help
Fayyad at the signing ceremony of two amending annexes to energy agreements at Grand Serail: A prelude to a new phase that contributes to...
Lebanon, Qatar sign deal for gas exploration in blocks 4 and 9
Bassil: Our hand is extended to all & we call for urgent consultations, bilaterally or collectively
Bassil threatens to run for president, says FPM to propose 'list of names'
Hezbollah hails 'heroic' Palestinian attack in east Jerusalem
Earthquake in Syria felt was felt by some residents in Lebanon
Mikati from Grand Serail: Petroleum activities in Lebanese waters will have a positive impact on companies, provide job opportunities for youth &...
Bou Saab heads to Washington to meet World Bank officials, US Senate & Congress members
Protest stand against the release of those arrested in the Beirut Port blast dossier, outside Nabatiyeh's Serail
Al-Murtada signs memorandum of understanding with "Hamazkayin" Association: Role of Culture Ministry is to raise awareness, protect Lebanese entity
Qatar replaces Russian company in Lebanon gas exploration
Lebanon's top Christian cleric says judge probing port blast must be allowed to pursue truth

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 29-30/2023
Syriac Orthodox priest Shamoun Bagandi returns from Germany to his native village of Arbo, plants 350 pistachio trees
Iranian military factory hit by ‘unidentified attackers’ in drone strike
Israel strikes Iranian munitions facility with targeted drones
Pope Francis to visit two fragile African nations
Ukraine's presidential adviser to Iran on drone strike: 'We did warn you'
Russia's Lavrov urges Israel and Palestinians not to worsen tensions
Israeli-Palestinian cauldron tests US as Blinken visits
Gobran Mohamed/Arab News/January 29, 2023
Blinken begins Middle East trip amid spate of violence
Russians gone from Ukraine village, fear and hardship remain
Ukraine says it repels attack around Blahodatne, Wagner claims control
Kremlin: Putin open 'to contacts' with Germany's Scholz -RIA
Crimea is shaping up to be the battleground that will decide the Russia-Ukraine war
How Russia is molding the minds of schoolkids to support its brutal invasion of Ukraine
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a real and dangerous possibility that could wreck armies and ruin the global economy worse than the 1929 stock market crash
Azerbaijan to evacuate embassy in Iran on Sunday after fatal shooting
Egypt ready to assume mediation role between Armenia and Azerbaijan, says President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
US To Pressure Partners Into Enforcing Anti-Russia Sanctions — Reuters

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 29-30/2023
Details of Soliemani’s Elimination/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 29/2023
Why the EU should designate the IRGC a terrorist organization/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 29, 2023
Tension is rising between Turkiye and Greece/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/January 29, 2023
Unfettered International Adventurism and Unaccountable Local Rogues/Raghida Dergham/January 29, 2023
‘Hurricane Hazel’ McCallion, longtime mayor of Mississauga, Ont., dead at 101 Years Old/CBC/January 29, 2023
Is Putin Destroying Russia?/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/January 29, 2023

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 29-30/2023
Al-Rahi calls on Bitar to continue his work, seek int'l help
Naharnet/January 29/2023
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday threw his support behind the embattled Beirut port blast investigator, Judge Tarek Bitar, calling on him to “continue his work” despite the recusal lawsuits and the latest judicial standoff. “We hope that Judicial Investigator Judge Tarek Bitar will continue his work to unveil the truth and issue the indictment,” al-Rahi said in his Sunday Mass sermon, asking Bitar to “seek the assistance of any international authority that might help in uncovering the truth.” Al-Rahi also lamented that “the meetings of judicial bodies are witnessing a lack of quorum, with judges and public prosecutors defying the Higher Judicial Council and its head and refraining from attending the meetings.”“This is unacceptable! The judiciary has its mechanism and hierarchy,” the patriarch added. “Judges are rebelling against their authorities instead of rebelling against politicians. They are overbidding against each other, impeding the investigations of each other, releasing suspects en masse and arresting the relatives of the port victims,” al-Rahi decried, in an apparent jab at some judges, especially at State Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oueidat. He added: “They are undermining the norms of raiding, summoning and subpoenaing; reversing their rulings; bowing to those who have influence; violating sovereign laws; breaching the investigations’ confidentiality in front of foreign nations before knowing their true motives; implicating themselves in plots of grudges and vengeance; showing strength against the weak; showing weakness toward the strong; and smuggling foreign (dual national) detainees.” “We will not allow the port bombing crime to go without punishment, no matter how much time passes and how many rulers change,” al-Rahi vowed.

Fayyad at the signing ceremony of two amending annexes to energy agreements at Grand Serail: A prelude to a new phase that contributes to...
NNA/January 29/2023
Lebanon witnessed today a historic event represented in holding the official signing ceremony of the "amending annexes to the Exploration and Production Agreements in Blocks 4 and 9", on the occasion of "Qatar Energy" Company's joining as a partner with "Total Energy" and "Eni" Companies, under the auspices and in presence of Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Grand Serail.  Caretaker Minister of Energy and Water, Dr. Walid Fayyad, signed on behalf of the Lebanese side; the Minister of State for Qatari Energy Affairs and the CEO of Qatar Energy, Eng. Saad bin Sherida Al-Kaabi on behalf of the Qatari side; the CEO of the "Total Energy" Group, Eng. Patrick Pouyanné, representing the French company, and the CEO of the "Eni" Group, Eng. Claudio Descalzi, representing the Italian company, in the presence of the ambassadors of Qatar, France and Italy. This step comes after "QatarEnergy" Company became a partner in a consortium of oil rights holders in Blocks 4 and 9 in the Lebanese marine waters as a non-operating oil right holder, joining the French "Total Energy" and the Italian "Eni" operators. The participation rates in each of the two agreements, due to the concessions of the participation rates in both agreements belonging to Blocks 4 and 9, duly approved by the Council of Ministers (extraordinary approval), are as follows:
- "Total Energy" 35% (thirty-five percent)
- "Eni" 35% (thirty-five percent)
- "Qatar Energy" 30% (thirty percent)
This new partnership coincides with the practical procedures initiated by the operator to carry out exploration and drilling activities in Block No. 9 during this year, whereby Lebanon’s share in the event of a discovery will range between 54 percent and 63 percent after deducting operational and capital costs.
In his delivered address during the press conference held after the signing ceremony, Lebanese Energy Minister Fayyad considered that this represents "a prelude to a new phase that contributes to consolidating Lebanon's position on the oil map in the region."
"We meet today in this historical edifice that testifies to the contemporary history of Lebanon with all its challenges, crises and prosperous past. We look forward to this event, which Lebanon has not witnessed over the past fifty years, to mark the beginning of a new phase that contributes to consolidating Lebanon's position on the oil map in the region, enhances its role as an investment destination, and opens a window of hope for a future phase that heralds the prosperity of our beloved country, Lebanon, and the well-being of its people." Fayyad said. Welcoming the Qatari, French and Italian partners within the exploration trip for natural resources in Lebanon, he expressed pride in Lebanon's success, through the Ministry of Energy and Water and the Petroleum Administration, to attract this solid alliance consisting of the most important international companies in the field of oil and gas extraction. "This indicates the continuation of confidence in Lebanon despite all the ordeals and crises that it is going through, and the hopes pinned on making commercial discoveries in the exclusive Lebanese economic zone," Fayyad underlined.

Lebanon, Qatar sign deal for gas exploration in blocks 4 and 9
Associated Press/Agence France Presse/January 29/2023
Lebanon, two international oil giants and state-owned oil and gas company Qatar Energy signed an agreement Sunday for the Qatari firm to join a consortium that will search for gas in the Mediterranean Sea off Lebanon's coast. The deal inked in Beirut brings Qatar into Lebanon's gas exploration market three months after Lebanon and Israel signed a U.S.-mediated maritime border agreement ending a yearslong dispute. Qatar Energy is replacing a Russian company that withdrew from the Lebanese market in September. In 2017, Lebanon approved licenses for an international consortium including France's TotalEnergies, Italy's ENI and Russia's Novatek to move forward with offshore oil and gas development for two of 10 blocks in the Mediterranean. The borders of one of the two blocks were disputed by neighboring Israel until a maritime border deal was reached last year. The companies did not find viable amounts of oil or gas in block No. 4 north of Beirut, and drilling in block No. 9 in the south has been repeatedly postponed because of the dispute with Israel. The agreement was signed by Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, Qatar's Energy Minister; his Lebanese counterpart Walid Fayyad; Claudio Descalzi, the CEO of Italy's state-run energy company, ENI, and TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné. The signing ceremony was attended by Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. "Our concentration will be on block number nine," al-Kaabi said, adding that this could be a first step for Qatar Energy to play a bigger role in future explorations. Back in 2017, Total and ENI each got 40% stakes in the blocs while Novatek got 20%. Under the deal signed Sunday, Qatar Energy will take the 20% stake of Novatek in addition to 5% each from ENI and Total leaving the Arab company with a stake of 30%. Total and ENI will have 35% stakes each. Lebanese media reported that exploration in block No. 9 could begin before the end of November. "We are committed to execute this first well as soon as possible," TotalEnergies' Pouyanné said. The company said two months ago it would soon launch exploration activities in search of gas off Lebanon's coast. Cash-strapped Lebanon hopes that future gas discoveries will help the small Mideast nation pull itself out of the worst economic and financial crisis in the country's modern history. Since the crisis erupted in October 2019, the Lebanese pound has lost more than 90% of its value. Tens of thousands have become jobless and three quarters of the population of 6 million, including 1 million Syrian refugees, now lives in poverty. "It is an honor to be in Lebanon with these two companies," said Descalzi. "We will work all together to give the best to your country." According to energy consultant Naji Abi Aad, "Qatar's entry into the consortium is above all politically significant." He told AFP that Doha's involvement "brings a political guarantee" as Lebanon grapples with deep economic, political and social crises. Qatar is among the world's top liquefied natural gas exporters and its state-owned company operates all of the country's oil and gas exploration and production, making the nation among the world's richest per capita.

Bassil: Our hand is extended to all & we call for urgent consultations, bilaterally or collectively
NNA/January 29/2023
Free Patriotic Movement Chief, MP Gebran Bassil, said today in a press conference, "We are living through the manifestations of the collapse: the dollar is without a ceiling, the poverty line has risen, gasoline is over a million, there is chaos in the pharmaceutical market, the educational sector is threatened, neglect of administration, employees and transactions, and judges complaining about each other and implementing political agendas." He added: "An army commander violates the laws of defense and public accountability, takes by force the powers of the Minister of Defense, and disposes of millions according to his whim with a fund of private money and army property...A prime minister issues illegal decisions, the latest of which is placing director generals at disposal...""Till today, there is no external decision to ignite the situation nor an internal decision to fight...Security chaos due to the daily-living situation is expected, but beware! Who guarantees? Don't you see how they play with the dollar, the judiciary, and the people to blow-up the situation and eliminbate the European investigation?" Bassil cautioned. Over the stalemate situation, Bassil asserted "extending a hand to everyone" and called for "holding urgent deliberations, bilaterally or collectively, in any form, so that there is agreement on a small and quick-implemented program," and "to agree on a mini-list of names to reach consensus over one," or at least to vote according to the list if it is not possible to have one name for the presidential election.
He added: "In the event that the efforts fail and our positions are considered based on weakness instead of caution, I will seriously consider running for the presidency of the republic, regardless of loss or gain, so that we would have at least preserved the principle of eligibility for representation."
"In the event that all our endeavors are rejected and the intentions of exclusion are confirmed, we will then resort to fierce political opposition against the entire system and authority...and here I am not threatening like others, but we do not die and we have our options to live with our dignity without fighting with our partners,” Bassil underscored. He continued to reiterate that "partnership is the raison d'être for Lebanon's existence, that partnership is our weapon and that we will not abandon it...Understanding is there to serve the partnership. Thus, partnership is a guarantee of understanding, not a victim of maintaining it...""We are ready to conclude a new understanding with Hezbollah and with any political component on building the state in partnership, provided it is implemented," Bassil emphasized.

Bassil threatens to run for president, says FPM to propose 'list of names'
Naharnet/January 29/2023
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Sunday announced that he might nominate himself for the presidency should the other parties reject two FPM proposals for consensus. “There is a financial, economic, social, health, educational, institutional, judicial and legal collapse, and there are fears that it might turn into a security one. They are threatening us with it and incitement is ongoing to justify the election (as president) of the ‘security necessity candidate,’” Bassil said in a televised address. Bassil’s statement was an apparent jab at Army Commander General Joseph Aoun. “The army chief is violating the laws of defense and public accounting, usurping the defense minister’s powers by force and acting as he pleases with the army’s funds and assets,” Bassil added. Commenting on recent remarks, the FPM chief said it would be “an act of national and political madness to think of electing a president without the Christians.”
He added that a recent stance by Progressive Socialist Party chief Walid Jumblat, who “rejected” that Christians be sidelined, was a “patriotic and responsible stance.”“It can be capitalized on to build common life in the heart of Mount Lebanon,” Bassil added.
The FPM chief also revealed that his Movement has devised a “preliminary draft” containing the names of several potential presidential candidates. Those candidates are “better than the proposed ones,” Bassil said. “We have started a round of contacts with MPs and blocs to hear their proposals and to agree with them on a host of names,” he added. He said that another suggestion would be “agreeing to any candidate who has chances on the condition that, prior to his election, the blocs supporting him would implement reformist demands,” most notably “the decentralization law and the law for recovering transferred funds.”“Should the first and second endeavors fail and our stances be considered as resulting from weakness rather than keenness, I will seriously think of running for president regardless of loss or win, so that we at least preserve the principle of legitimate representation,” Bassil added.

Hezbollah hails 'heroic' Palestinian attack in east Jerusalem
Agence France Presse/January 29/2023
Hezbollah has praised an attack by a Palestinian gunman that killed seven Israelis as "heroic."In a statement, the Lebanese group also voiced "absolute support for all the steps taken by the Palestinian resistance factions."The attack took place outside a synagogue in a settler neighborhood in east Jerusalem. It came a day after one of the deadliest Israeli army raids in the occupied West Bank in roughly two decades, as well as rocket fire from militants in the Gaza Strip and Israeli retaliatory air strikes. Several Arab nations that have ties with Israel -- including Egypt, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates -- condemned Friday night's shooting.

Earthquake in Syria felt was felt by some residents in Lebanon
NNA/January 29/2023
The National Center of Geophysics in Bhannes affiliated to the National Council for Scientific Research reported that at 18:12 an earthquake measuring 4.4 on the Richter scale occurred in the sea off the Syrian city of Latakia, 125 km from Tripoli and was felt by residents of northern Lebanon.

Mikati from Grand Serail: Petroleum activities in Lebanese waters will have a positive impact on companies, provide job opportunities for youth &...
NNA/January 29/2023
Prime Minister Najib Mikati affirmed that "the start of the process of exploration and petroleum activities in the Lebanese waters will have a positive impact, in the short and medium term, on creating opportunities for Lebanese companies interested in the services sector in the field of petroleum, and will provide job opportunities for Lebanese youth, especially for workers in the technical field."He added: "In the event that commercial quantities are discovered, this will be developed at the required speed and supply the Lebanese market, especially the power plants, with natural gas, which will contribute to growth in the local economy." Mikati's words came during his patronage of the signing ceremony of "the amended annexes to the exploration and production agreements in Blocks 4 and 9", on the occasion of "Qatar Energy" Company's joining as a partner with the French "Total Energy" and the Italian "Eni" Companies.
He considered that the joining of "QatarEnergy" Company and its acquisition of 30 percent of the exploration and production agreements in Blocks 4 and 9 "constitutes an important and exceptional event in the oil exploration and production sector in the Lebanese marine waters, due to QatarEnergy’s global prestige and experience in the gas industry."Mikati added: "The operator, Total Energy, which owns a 35 percent stake, in addition to Eni, which owns a 35 percent stake, will start drilling in Block 9, after completing environmental surveys and concessions related to drilling and launching logistical activities from the port of Beirut."He stressed that "the consortium of companies operating in Blocks 4 and 9 will contribute to advancing investments in the energy sector in Lebanon, which is a long-term investment that the Lebanese state will support with good governance and absolute transparency."Moreover, Mikati deemed that the "Qatari investment in the energy sector constitutes a strategic partnership between Lebanon and the sisterly State of Qatar and opens the way in the future for Arab and Gulf investments in particular, for the benefit of Lebanon and its Arab brothers."It is to note that the signing ceremony came after a meeting held this morning by Prime Minister Najib Mikati with Qatari Minister of Energy and CEO of the state company “Qatar Energy”, Saad bin Sherida Al-Kaabi, accompanied by the CEO of “Total Energy” Patrick Pouyanne, and CEO of “Eni” energy company Claudio Descalzi, in the presence of Energy Minister Walid Fayyad at the Grand Serail.

Bou Saab heads to Washington to meet World Bank officials, US Senate & Congress members
NNA/January 29/2023
Deputy Speaker of the House, MP Elias Bou Saab, left Beirut for Washington on a visit that will include several meetings with a number of officials in the US administration and members of the Senate and Congress, as well as senior officials of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The visit will witness some joint meetings, in which Bou Saab will participate, along with Lebanese Deputies Neemat Frem, Yassin Yassin and Mark Daou. Bou Saab is expected to begin his first day with a dialogue meeting and dinner organized by the Chargé d’Affaires of the Lebanese Embassy, ​Wael Hashem, in the embassy building, in the presence of the US Special Presidential Coordinator, Amos Hochstein, who will have a joint speech with Bou Saab on the post-demarcation of maritime borders phase and its reflection on Lebanon. The dinner banquet will be attended by Lebanese deputies, a number of Senate and Congress members and officials from the US administration, in addition to a number of invitees.

Protest stand against the release of those arrested in the Beirut Port blast dossier, outside Nabatiyeh's Serail
NNA/January 29/2023
The Nabatiyeh Movement organized a protest stand facing the Nabatiyeh Serail this morning, in rejection of "attempts to obscure truth and impose impunity in the investigations of the Beirut port explosion."Speaking on behalf of the protesters, Attorney Ghada Mhanna said: "After disrupting the presidential elections, the authority dealt a blow to the judiciary through its apparatus, which it deliberately implanted in the institutions...After stopping the judicial investigation twice with Judge Sawan and several times with Judge Bitar, some judicial authorities released, and contrary to the law, all those arrested for the crime of the port explosion, smuggling the most dangerous of them to America, who occupies the position of security official in the port, at the behest of global imperialism conspiring against the homeland....""We call on the masses of our people to stand side by side in the face of attempts to obscure the truth and impose impunity, with a solid will and good patience, until the restoration of the homeland and the revival of its institutions is achieved," Mhanna concluded.

Al-Murtada signs memorandum of understanding with "Hamazkayin" Association: Role of Culture Ministry is to raise awareness, protect Lebanese entity
NNA/January 29, 2023
Caretaker Minister of Culture, Judge Muhammad Wissam Al-Murtada, and Head of the International Committee of the Hamazkayin Association, Zakar Kichichan, signed a memorandum of understanding between the ministry and the association for cooperation in various cultural sectors. During the signing ceremony that took place at the Culture Minister's office in Sanayeh, Kichichan thanked Al-Murtada for his cooperation and support in completing the MOU, which he pledged to be implemented effectively for all stakeholders' interest. In turn, Al-Murtada expressed hope to revive, through signing the memorandum, the memory of the Lebanese and trigger them to think carefully about the reality of the Armenians, whose despair did not creep into their souls despite their suffering and the difficult circumstances they faced and their defiance of all the countries that conspired against them..."Instead, they decided to live united in solidarity and openness to the other...and opted to decide their own destiny and integrated into our society while preserving their identity," he added. "I had previously indicated and reiterated that the role of the Ministry of Culture is raising awareness today more than ever, especially in light of the current conditions, to protect the Lebanese entity, and culture, in all its dimensions," he said. "The Ministry is open to all meaningful cultural projects, and the hand is extended to all Lebanon's friends for cooperation in this field," Al-Murtada asserted.

Qatar replaces Russian company in Lebanon gas exploration
BEIRUT (AP)/BASSEM MROUE/Sun, January 29, 2023
Lebanon, two international oil giants and state-owned oil and gas company Qatar Energy signed an agreement Sunday that the Qatari firm will join a consortium that will search for gas in the Mediterranean Sea off Lebanon’s coast. The deal inked in Beirut brings Qatar into Lebanon's gas exploration market three months after Lebanon and Israel signed a U.S.-mediated maritime border agreement ending a yearslong dispute. Qatar Energy is replacing a Russian company that withdrew from the Lebanese market in September. In 2017, Lebanon approved licenses for an international consortium including France's TotalEnergies, Italy's ENI and Russia’s Novatek to move forward with offshore oil and gas development for two of 10 blocks in the Mediterranean. The borders of one of the two blocks were disputed by neighboring Israel until a maritime border deal was reached last year. The companies did not find viable amounts of oil or gas in block No. 4 north of Beirut, and drilling in block No. 9 in the south has been repeatedly postponed because of the dispute with Israel. Lebanon and Israel have been formally at war since Israel’s creation in 1948. The agreement was signed by Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, Qatar’s Energy Minister; his Lebanese counterpart Walid Fayad; Claudio Descalzi, the CEO of Italy’s state-run energy company, ENI, and TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné. The signing ceremony was attended by Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati.“Our concentration will be on block number nine,” al-Kaabi said, adding that this could be a first step for Qatar Energy to play a bigger role in future explorations. Back in 2017, Total and ENI each got 40% stakes in the blocs while Novatek got 20%. Under the deal signed Sunday, Qatar Energy will take the 20% stake of Novatek in addition to 5% each from ENI and Total leaving the Arab company with a stake of 30%. Total and ENI will have 35% stakes each. Lebanese media reported that exploration in block No. 9 could begin before the end of November. “We are committed to execute this first well as soon as possible,” TotalEnergies' Pouyanné said. The company said two months ago it would soon launch exploration activities in search of gas off Lebanon’s coast. Cash-strapped Lebanon hopes that future gas discoveries will help the small Mideast nation pull itself out of the worst economic and financial crisis in the country’s modern history. Since the crisis erupted in October 2019, the Lebanese pound has lost more than 90% of its value. Tens of thousands have become jobless and three quarters of the population of 6 million, including 1 million Syrian refugees, now lives in poverty. “It is an honor to be in Lebanon with these two companies,” said Descalzi. “We will work all together to give the best to your country.”Qatar is among the world’s top liquefied natural gas exporters and its state-owned company operates all of the country’s oil and gas exploration and production, making the nation among the world’s richest per capita. The tiny country, which borders Saudi Arabia to the east, shares control with Iran of the world’s largest underwater natural gas field in the Persian Gulf.

Lebanon's top Christian cleric says judge probing port blast must be allowed to pursue truth
AMMAN (Reuters)/Sun, January 29, 2023
Lebanon's top Christian cleric called on Sunday for the judge struggling to investigate the Beirut port explosion to be able to pursue his work and get help from any outside authority to pinpoint those responsible for the devastating blast. Long-simmering tensions over the investigation have boiled over since Judge Tarek Bitar brought charges against some of the most influential people in Lebanon, defying political pressure to scrap the inquiry into the disaster that killed 220 people. With friends and allies of Lebanon's most powerful factions, including Hezbollah, among those charged, the establishment struck back swiftly last week when the prosecutor general charged Bitar with usurping powers. Critics called it "a coup" against his investigation. "We hope investigating Judge Tareq Bitar continues his work to uncover the truth and issue a decision and get help from any international authority that can help disclose the truth...," Bechara Boutros Al-Rai, influential patriarch of Lebanon's largest Christian community, said in a sermon. The Aug. 4, 2020 blast was caused by hundreds of tonnes of improperly stored chemicals of which the president and prime minister at the time were aware, among other officials. Bitar resumed his inquiry on Jan. 23 after a 13-month break caused by legal wrangling and high-level political pressure, issuing charges against a number of senior officials including top public prosecutor Ghassan Oweidat. Oweidat rejected Bitar's move and filed charges against him for allegedly mishandling the inquiry, as well as ordering the release of people detained in connection with the blast. Rai has long said that Lebanon's judiciary should be free of political interference and sectarian activism. "We won't allow however long it takes and rulers change to let the crime of the port pass without punishment."
(Reporting by Suleiman Al-Khalidi; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 29-30/2023
REVITALIZING TUR ABDIN: Syriac Orthodox priest Shamoun Bagandi returns from Germany to his native village of Arbo, plants 350 pistachio trees
ARBO, TUR ABDIN, Turkey/January 29/2023
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=558028479579178
Aiming to revive his homeland of Tur Abdin in Beth Nahrin (Mesopotamia), Syriac Orthodox priest Shamoun Bagandi and his family from Germany plan to return to his native village of Arbo (Turkish: Taşköy or ‘Village of Stones’). In a video posted on social media by German-Syriac returnee Morris Dal, who opened a pizzeria nearby last year, Fr. Shamoun said that at his son’s request, they began tilling their land two months ago to establish two groves with a combined 350 pistachio trees. Fr. Shamoun Bagandi stressed in the interview the importance of Tur Abdin, the land of the Syriac ancestors, and the need to return to the homeland and open projects there that contribute to the local economy. He hoped that the Syriacs will return to their homeland and revitalize their villages. “We want to turn the barren land into a green garden full of plants and flowers,” Fr. Bagandi said. “We also rebuilt our house, and I am very happy that I was able to repay part of my debt to my homeland and native village.” Also read: TUR ABDIN: Unidentified persons destroy olive grove of returned Syriac nun. “Turkish state must protect Syriacs” Arbo is located in the Tur Izlo region of Tur Abdin. Before the mass exodus in the 1970s and 1980s of Syriacs from Tur Abdin, Arbo was one of the larger villages in the Tur Izlo region. There are many ruined buildings, shrines and churches in the village. The main church is the Saint Dimet Church, but there were also the Church of the Mother of God and the Saint Shalito Church. In recent years, several Syriac families from the diaspora have built new houses and together they spend several months a year in their native village. Fr. Shamoun Bagandi and his family have been doing the same, but are now set to return for good in the future.

ضربة جوية استهدفت منشأة عسكرية في مدينة اصفهان تابعة لوزارة الدفاع، ومواقع الحرس، وطهران تعلن إسقاط مسيرات وتتوعد تل أبيب
Iranian military factory hit by ‘unidentified attackers’ in drone strike
Ynetnews & Reuters/January 29/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115356/iranian-military-factory-hit-by-unidentified-attackers-in-drone-strike-%d8%b6%d8%b1%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%87%d8%af%d9%81%d8%aa-%d9%85%d9%86%d8%b4%d8%a3%d8%a9/
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/syjtp1n3i
While no nation or body took responsibility, Islamic Republic believes U.S. could have been involved; Tehran recently arrested Kurdish militants 'working for Israel,' who planned to blow up defense industry center in same location. A loud explosion struck a military industry factory near Iran's central city of Isfahan overnight, in what Tehran said on Sunday was a drone strike by unidentified attackers. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the blast, which came amid tension with the West over Tehran's nuclear work and supply of arms for Russia's war in Ukraine, as well as months of anti-government demonstrations at home. The extent of the damage could not be independently confirmed. Iran's Defense Ministry said the explosion caused only minor damage and no casualties.Iranian media video showing a flash of light at the plant, which the official IRNA news agency described as an ammunitions factory. Footage showed emergency vehicles and fire trucks outside the complex. "Around 23:30 (2000 GMT) on Saturday night, an unsuccessful attack was carried out using micro Aerial Vehicles (MAVs) on one of the ministry's workshop sites," the Defense Ministry said in a statement carried by Iran's state TV.
It said one drone was shot down "and the other two were caught in defense traps and blew up. It caused only minor damage to the roof of a workshop building. There were no casualties."
The attack "has not affected our installations and mission...and such blind measures will not have an impact on the continuation of the country's progress." Separately, IRNA reported early on Sunday a massive fire at a motor oil factory in an industrial zone near the northwestern city of Tabriz. It gave no information about the cause of that blaze.
Iran has in the past accused its arch enemy Israel of planning attacks using agents inside Iranian territory. In July, Tehran said it had arrested a sabotage team made up of Kurdish militants working for Israel who planned to blow up a "sensitive" defense industry center in Isfahan.
An Israeli military spokesperson declined comment when asked if Israel had a connection to the latest incident. Israel has long said it could attack Iran if diplomacy fails to curb Tehran's nuclear or missile programs, but has a policy of withholding comment on specific incidents.
In Ukraine, which accuses Iran of supplying hundreds of drones to Russia to attack civilian targets in cities far from the front, a senior aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky linked the incident directly to the war there. "War logic is inexorable & murderous. It bills the authors & accomplices strictly," Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted. "Explosive night in Iran - drone & missile production, oil refineries. Did warn you." Several Iranian nuclear sites are located in Isfahan province, including Natanz, centerpiece of Iran's uranium enrichment program, which Iran accuses Israel of sabotaging in 2021. There have been a number of explosions and fires around Iranian military, nuclear and industrial facilities in recent years. Talks between Tehran and world powers to revive a 2015 nuclear pact have stalled since September. Under the pact, abandoned by Washington under President Donald Trump, Iran agreed to limit nuclear work in return for easing of sanctions.Iran has acknowledged sending drones to Russia but says they were sent before Moscow's invasion of Ukraine last year. Moscow denies its forces use Iranian drones in Ukraine, although many have been shot down and recovered there.
Tehran has also faced internal turmoil in recent months, with a crackdown on widespread anti-government demonstrations spurred by the death in custody of a woman held for violating rules on dress.

Israel strikes Iranian munitions facility with targeted drones
John Bowden/The Independent/January 29, 2023
Iranian officials said that unmanned aerial vehicles struck a munitions facility in the central Iranian city of Isfahan overnight, a result of what US officials on Sunday said was an Israeli operation, according to the Wall Street Journal. Tehran had not initially placed blame for the attack, and claimed that only minor damage was done to the rooftop of the facility. The Iranian defence ministry further claimed that several drones had been shot down by Iranian ground-to-air defences. It was unclear, based on multiple reports, if any drones survived the operation. Israeli officials also did not immediately claim credit for the operation, though the Biden administration likely revealed their involvement with tacit support. It wasn’t clear exactly what the attack’s intended goal was, but The Wall Street Journal reported that the site of the battle was directly next to a site designated for the Iran Space Research Center, which plays a role in Tehran’s ballistic missiles program. The attack comes at a time of great uncertainty in the field of US-Iran relations. The Biden administration spent much of the president’s first two years in office attempting to revive the Obama-era nuclear accord signed by Iran, the US, and several European countries which was abandoned under the Trump administration. But White House and State Department officials, including the president himself, have recently indicated that the possibility of those talks resulting in success has all but evaporated.
Such operations therefore could become more commonplace in the months and years ahead as the US and Israel seek to hinder Iran’s various weapons and atomic development programs through nonpolitical and often violent means.
Meanwhile, cities across Iran have been rocked for months by widespread demonstrations in response to the killing of a young woman in police custody. The 22-year-old Mahsa Amini was detained for allegedly wearing a headscarf incorrectly in September; she died after reports say she was severely beaten.
Her death sparked a wave of protests against the country’s so-called “morality police” and the country’s conservative Muslim government in general; those demonstrations continue even as the Iranian government has responded with a brutal crackdown that has included arrests and sentences as severe as death for some of those caught.The US Congress has voted in bipartisan fashion to support those protests, with conservatives finding rare common cause with the left on the issue. European legislative bodies have done the same, sparking a wave of retaliatory sanctions by Tehran; the Biden administration meanwhile, has responded with sanctions for a number of senior officials including members of the Revolutionary Guard over the crackdown.

Pope Francis to visit two fragile African nations
NNA/January 29/2023
Pope Francis starts a trip on Tuesday to two fragile African nations often forgotten by the world, where protracted conflicts have left millions of refugees and displaced people grappling with hunger. The Jan. 31-Feb 5 visit to Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and South Sudan, takes the 86-year-old pope to places where Catholics make up about half of the populations and where the Church is a key player in health and educational systems as well as in democracy-building efforts. The trip was scheduled to take place last July but was postponed because Francis was suffering a flare-up of a chronic knee ailment. He still uses a wheelchair and cane but his knee has improved significantly. Both countries are rich in natural resources - DRC in minerals and South Sudan in oil - but beset with poverty and strife. DRC, which is the second-largest country in Africa and has a population of about 90 million, is getting its first visit by a pope since John Paul II travelled there in 1985, when it was known as Zaire. Francis had planned to visit the eastern city of Goma but that stop was scrapped following the resurgence of fighting between the army and the M23 rebel group in the area where Italy's ambassador, his bodyguard and driver were killed in an ambush in 2021. Francis will stay in the capital, Kinshasa, but will meet there with victims of violence from the east. "Congo is a moral emergency that cannot be ignored," the Vatican's ambassador to DRC, Archbishop Ettore Balestrero, told Reuters. According to the U.N. World Food Programme, 26 million people in the DRC face severe hunger. The country's 45 million-strong Catholic Church has a long history of promoting democracy and, as the pope arrives, it is gearing up to monitor elections scheduled for December. "Our hope for the Congo is that this visit will reinforce the Church's engagement in support of the electoral process," said Britain's ambassador to the Vatican, Christ Trott, who spent many years as a diplomat in Africa. DRC is getting its first visit by a pope since John Paul II travelled there in 1985, when it still was known as Zaire.
UNPRECEDENTED JOINT PILGRIMAGE
The trip takes on an unprecedented nature on Friday when the pope leaves Kinshasa for South Sudan's capital, Juba. That leg is being made with the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby and the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland, Iain Greenshields. "Together, as brothers, we will live an ecumenical journey of peace," Francis told tens of thousands of people in St. Peter's Square for his Sunday address. The three Churches represent the Christian make-up of the world's youngest country, which gained independence in 2011 from predominantly Muslim Sudan after decades of conflict and has a population of around 11 million. "This will be a historic visit," Welby said. "After centuries of division, leaders of three different parts of (Christianity) are coming together in an unprecedented way."Two years after independence, conflict erupted when forces loyal to President Salva Kiir clashed with those loyal to Vice President Riek Machar, who is from a different ethnic group. The bloodshed spiralled into a civil war that killed 400,000 people. A 2018 deal stopped the worst of the fighting, but parts of the agreement - including the deployment of a re-unified national army - have not yet been implemented. There are 2.2 million internally displaced people in South Sudan and another 2.3 million have fled the country as refugees, according to the United Nations, which has praised the Catholic Church as a "powerful and active force in building peace and reconciliation in conflict-torn regions".
In one of the most remarkable gestures since his papacy began in 2013, Francis knelt to kiss the feet of South Sudan's previously warring leaders during a retreat at the Vatican in April 2019, urging them not to return to civil war. Trott, a former ambassador in South Sudan, said he hoped the three Churchmen can convince political leaders to "fulfil the promise of the independence movement". --- Reuters

Ukraine's presidential adviser to Iran on drone strike: 'We did warn you'
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF Published: JANUARY 29, 2023
The implication seems to be that Ukraine warned that someone would attempt to destroy the Iranian plants and other weapons facilities.
The senior adviser to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, Mykhailo Podolyak, took to Twitter Sunday to mock Iran after it suffered an apparently devastating drone attack at a weapons facility in Isfahan, saying that "Ukraine did warn you."As evidence of this apparent warning, Podolyak included a screenshot in the Ukrainian version of his tweet - but not in the English one – of a tweet he made on December 24, 2022. The tweet in question said the following: "Iran, planning to boose missile, drone supplies for Russia, blatantly humiliates the institutions of international sanctions.. Important to abandon nonworking sanctions, invalid UN resolutions concept, & move to more destructive tools – liquidation of plants, arrest of suppliers."The implication seems to be that Ukraine warned that someone would attempt to destroy the plants and other weapons facilities.
What happened in Iran?
Over the weekend, an Iranian Defense Ministry facility was reportedly struck in an explosion via drone. Officially, Iran says the attack failed. However, sources and videos circulating online have indicated that the attack was far more successful than the Islamic Republic admits.
There were four explosions at the site, which can even be witnessed on social media, against a facility developing advanced weapons, and the damage goes far beyond the "minor roof damage" that the Islamic Republic is claiming and which it has falsely claimed before also in other incidents in recent years. Israel is playing the incident mum, but most Western intelligence and Iranian sources have credited the Mossad with similarly successful attacks against Iran's Natanz nuclear facility in July 2020, a different Natanz nuclear facility in April 2021, another nuclear facility at Karaj in June 2021 and with destroying around 120 or more Iranian drones in February 2022. There are also few organizations globally besides the Mossad which are reported to have the sort of advanced and surgical strike capabilities displayed in the operation.
*Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this report.

Russia's Lavrov urges Israel and Palestinians not to worsen tensions
MOSCOW (Reuters)/Sun, January 29, 2023
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged senior Palestinian and Israeli diplomats by phone on Sunday to do their utmost to avoid escalating a surge in violence in Jerusalem and the West Bank, his ministry said. "Sergey Lavrov called on the Israeli and Palestinian partners to show maximum responsibility and refrain from any actions that could provoke further degradation of the situation," it said in a statement. Lavrov also said there was an "acute" need for the "Quartet" of international mediators to restart peace talks between Israeli and Palestinian representatives, according to the statement.
Israeli police sealed off the Jerusalem family home of a Palestinian gunman on Sunday. He had killed seven people outside a synagogue the day after Israeli forces killed seven militants and two civilians in a raid on the West Bank.

Israeli-Palestinian cauldron tests US as Blinken visits
MATTHEW LEE/JERUSALEM (AP)/Sun, January 29, 2023
An alarming spike in Israeli-Palestinian violence and sharp responses by both sides are testing the Biden administration as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken plunges into a cauldron of deepening mistrust and anger on visits to Israel and the West Bank this week. What had already been expected to be a trip fraught with tension over differences between the administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new far-right government has grown significantly more complicated over the past four days with a spate of deadly incidents. Blinken’s high-wire diplomatic act begins on Monday after he completes a brief visit to Egypt that has been almost entirely overshadowed by the deteriorating security situation in Israel and the West Bank. U.S. officials say the main theme of Blinken’s conversations with Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas will be “de-escalation.” Yet Blinken will arrive in Israel just a day after Netanyahu’s Security Cabinet announced a series of punitive measures against Palestinians in response to a weekend of deadly shootings in which Palestinian attackers killed seven Israelis and wounded five others in Jerusalem. Those shootings followed a deadly Israeli raid in the West Bank on Thursday that killed 10 Palestinians, most of them militants. The violence has made January one of the bloodiest months in the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem in several years. While Blinken’s trip has been planned for several weeks and will follow visits by President Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan and CIA Director Willian Burns, it will be the highest-level U.S. engagement with Netanyahu since he retook power last month and the first since the surge in violence. Already contending with the new Israeli government’s far-right policies and its opposition to a two-state resolution to the long-running conflict, U.S. officials have yet to weigh in on the retaliatory steps that include sealing and demolishing the homes of Palestinian attackers, canceling social security benefits for their families and handing out more weapons to Israeli civilians. Perhaps most alarming was Netanyahu's vague promise to “strengthen” Israel's West Bank settlements, built on occupied land the Palestinians claim as the heartland of a future state. Bezalel Smotrich, an ultranationalist Cabinet minister whom Netanyahu has placed in charge of settlement policy, said he would seek new construction in a strategic section of the West Bank called E1. The U.S. has repeatedly blocked previous attempts by Israel to develop the area. U.S. officials have, however, criticized Abbas’ decision to suspend Palestinian security cooperation with Israel in the wake of the West Bank raid. “We want to get the parties to not cease security cooperation but to really enhance the security coordination,” said Barbara Leaf, the top U.S. diplomat for the Middle East. “We are urging de-escalation and a calming of the situation.”Ahead of his meeting with Blinken, Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel’s response is not intended to exacerbate tensions.
“We are not seeking an escalation, but we are prepared for any scenario,” Netanyahu told a Cabinet meeting. “Our answer to terrorism is a heavy hand and a strong, swift and precise response.” The Palestinians and some human rights groups believe the Israeli retaliation, including the demolition of homes of attackers' families, amounts to collective punishment and is illegal under international law. The turmoil has added yet another item to Blinken’s lengthy diplomatic agenda that was already set to include Russia’s war on Ukraine, tensions with Iran and crises in Lebanon and Syria; all of which weigh heavily in the U.S.-Israel relationship. Easing strains on those issues, or at least averting new ones, are central to Blinken’s mission despite Netanyahu's opposition to two of Biden’s main Mideast priorities: reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and restarting Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. But, with both of those matters stalled and little hope of any resumption in negotiations, the administration is attempting just to keep the concepts on life support.
In the meantime, the administration has resolved to improve ties with the Palestinians that former President Donald Trump had severed. Although it has resumed suspended U.S. assistance, its goal of re-opening the American consulate in Jerusalem to deal with Palestinian issues and the possibility of allowing the Palestinians to re-open their diplomatic mission in Washington have been blocked by a combination of Israeli opposition and U.S. legal hurdles. Blinken is unlikely to be able to offer the Palestinians any sign of progress on either of those matters, while pressing the case for further political reform in the Palestinian Authority. The U.S. has also remained silent on Netanyahu’s proposed sweeping changes to Israel’s judicial system, which would allow lawmakers to overrule decisions by the Supreme Court. Recent weeks have seen mass protests in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv over the proposals that critics say would badly damage Israel’s democratic standing. “It’s clear that this issue of the judicial legislation packages is one that’s sparked intense, intense discussion, debate within Israeli society,” said Leaf. “It’s clearly a measure of the vibrancy of the democracy that this is being contested so clearly up and down across segments of Israeli society.”While she and other U.S. officials have spoken of the importance of “shared values” with Israel, they have steered clear of commenting on what they regard as a purely domestic issue. “But now it became an issue” because of its proposed speed and scope, the public outcry, and growing concern among American Jewish leaders and members of Congress, said Eytan Gilboa, a U.S.-Israel expert at Bar-Ilan University. “There is much confusion about what the Israeli government is up to,” he said. “If for Netanyahu Iran is the major issue, by pushing the judicial reform, he is diverting the attention from the number one, more critical issue of Iran’s nuclear program.”*AP correspondent Ilan Ben Zion contributed from Jerusalem.

Gobran Mohamed/Arab News/January 29, 2023
CAIRO: The US has affirmed its support for Egypt’s economic, social and political development, according to a report issued by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and published it on its website. This comes amid the visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Egypt as part of a three-day tour of the Middle East. The report titled “The US-Egypt Relationship” outlines America’s policies towards various challenges in Africa and the Middle East. The visit takes place as the security situation deteriorates in Israel and Palestine. Blinken will travel on Monday and Tuesday to Jerusalem and Ramallah after his stop in Cairo. The report states that the US and Egypt are cooperating closely to de-escalate conflicts and promote sustainable peace, including by supporting UN mediation to hold elections in Libya and to restore a civilian-led democratic transition in Sudan.
Also, the US and Egypt share an “unwavering commitment to a negotiated two-state solution as the only path to a lasting resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and equal measures of security, prosperity, and dignity for Israelis and Palestinians.”
Building on Egypt’s peace with Israel, the US and Egypt are partnering to foster further regional cooperation, including through the Negev Forum process, the report states.
The American government was also engaged with Egypt, as well as Sudan and Ethiopia, to “advance a swift diplomatic resolution of issues over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that safeguards the interests of the three parties.”On the economic side, it noted that there remains “a shared commitment between the US and Egypt to enhance bilateral economic cooperation for the mutual benefit of the two peoples, including through expanding trade, increasing private sector investment, and cooperation in clean energy and climate technology.”
According to the report, the US has invested $600 million to digitize Egypt’s telecommunications sector, and Egypt has imported $5.9 billion from the US to construct, expand, and modernize Egyptian infrastructure to meet the needs of a growing population.
The State Department confirmed that the US and Egypt have committed to establishing a Joint Economic Commission that will further enhance cooperation on all economic and commercial issues.
Within the framework of developing relations between the two peoples, the US State Department said that more than 20,000 Egyptians have participated in US government exchange programs, and 450 Egyptians travel to the US annually on professional and academic exchange programs facilitated by the US Embassy in Cairo. The US and Egypt renewed their Memorandum of Understanding in November 2021, which strengthens protections for Egypt’s cultural patrimony and enables bilateral cooperation to disrupt the trafficking of archeological artifacts and cultural objects, the report states.
On the climate side, the US welcomed Egypt’s ongoing leadership through the COP27 presidency to accelerate global change.
According to the fact sheet, the US is providing $10 million to support the launch of the Cairo Center for Learning and Excellence on Adaptation and Resilience, which will build adaptation capacity across Africa. The US State Department affirmed that Egypt remains an important partner in combating terrorism, anti-trafficking, and regional security operations that enhance US and Egyptian security. It added that since 1978, the US has contributed more than $50 billion in military assistance, which has contributed to Egypt’s capabilities to protect and defend its land and maritime borders and to confront an evolving terrorist threat, including in the Sinai Peninsula. The State Department recalled that the US and Egypt established diplomatic relations in 1922 in a letter addressed by President Warren G. Harding to King Ahmed Fouad. This “deep partnership has proven its flexibility over the past century in the face of changing circumstances as Egypt seeks to build a stable and prosperous future that advances rights and fundamental freedoms for all citizens.”It added that the US firmly believes critical partnerships like the US-Egypt relationship are stronger when there is a shared commitment to human rights. “We maintain an active dialogue that seeks to reinforce tangible steps to promote freedom of expression, end political detention and strengthen the rule of law, and undertake critical judicial reforms, including with respect to pre-trial detention reforms, in line with Egypt’s National Strategy on Human Rights,” the US report states.

Blinken begins Middle East trip amid spate of violence
Simon Lewis/CAIRO, Jan 29 (Reuters) /Sun, January 29, 2023
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in the Middle East on Sunday, beginning a three-day visit as violence flares between Israelis and Palestinians, and with Iran and the war in Ukraine high on the agenda.
After a stop in Cairo Blinken will head on Monday to Jerusalem, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's new right-wing government has stirred concern at home and abroad over the future of Israel's secular values, frayed ethnic relations and stalled peace talks with the Palestinians. There has also been a spate of deadly violence in recent days, heightening fears that already spiralling violence will further escalate. A Palestinian gunman killed seven people in an attack outside a Jerusalem synagogue on Friday. It was worst such attack on Israelis in the Jerusalem area since 2008 and followed a fatal Israeli raid in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin on Thursday, the deadliest there in years. In talks with the new Israeli administration, which includes ultra-nationalist parties that want to expand West Bank settlements, Blinken will repeat U.S. calls for calm and emphasize Washington's support for a two-state solution, although U.S. officials admit longer-term peace talks are not likely in the near future. Blinken will also travel to Ramallah to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, other Palestinian officials, and members of civil society. Netanyahu's government has proposed a sweeping overhaul of the judiciary that would strengthen political control over the appointment of judges while weakening the Supreme Court's ability to overturn legislation or rule against government action. The proposals have triggered big street demonstrations against what protesters see as the potential undermining of judicial independence.
"It's clearly a measure of the vibrancy of the democracy that this has been contested so clearly up and down across segments of Israeli society," said Barbara Leaf, the top State Department official for the Middle East, who briefed reporters ahead of the trip. Blinken will hear from people inside and outside of government on the reforms, she added. Leaf said the visit would also build on earlier efforts to restore relations between Israel and Arab nations. The process known as the Negev Forum does not include Palestinians and involves officials from regional nations, including Egypt, discussing areas like economic cooperation and tourism.
UKRAINE, IRAN ON AGENDA
Russia's 11-month-old war in Ukraine will also be on the agenda. Ukraine, which has received great quantities of military equipment from the United States and Europe, has asked Israel to provide systems to shoot down drones, including those supplied by Israel's regional adversary Iran. Israel has rebuffed those requests. While it has condemned the Russian invasion, Israel has limited its assistance to humanitarian aid and protective gear, citing a desire for continued cooperation with Moscow over war-ravaged neighbor Syria and to ensure the wellbeing of Russia's Jews. The diplomats will also discuss Iran's nuclear program, with the Biden administration's efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal stalled and no Plan B to prevent Iran developing a weapon.
RIGHTS CONCERNS
In Cairo, Blinken will meet President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry to strengthen Washington's "strategic partnership" with Egypt and boost cooperation on regional issues like Sudan’s transition and elections in Libya, Leaf said.
Blinken will also be under pressure to raise human rights concerns. The Biden administration has withheld millions of dollars in military aid to Egypt over its failure to meet human rights conditions, although advocacy groups have pushed for more to be withheld, alleging widespread abuses including torture and enforced disappearances. Most of the $1.3 billion in foreign military aid that Washington sends to Egypt each year remains intact and the United States has credited Sisi's government with progress on political detentions.
Sisi, who became president in 2014, has said Egypt holds no political prisoners, and argues that security is paramount and that the government is promoting human rights by working to provide basic needs like jobs and housing. (Reporting by Simon Lewis Editing by Don Durfee and Frances Kerry)

Russians gone from Ukraine village, fear and hardship remain
SAMYA KULLAB/KALYNIVSKE, Ukraine (AP)Sun, January 29, 2023
When night falls in Tatiana Trofimenko’s village in southern Ukraine, she pours sunflower oil that aid groups gave her into a jar and seals it with a wick-fitted lid. A flick of a match, and the make-do candle is lit.
“This is our electricity,” Trofimenko, 68, says. It has been over 11 weeks since Ukrainian forces wrested back her village, Kalynivske, in Kherson province, from Russian occupation. But liberation has not diminished the hardship for residents, both those returning home and the ones who never left. In the peak of winter, the remote area not far from an active front line has no power or water. The sounds of war are never far. Russian forces withdrew from the western side of the Dnieper River, which bisects the province, but remain in control of the eastern side. A near constant barrage of fire from only a few kilometers away, and the danger of leftover mines leaving many Ukrainians too scared to venture out, has rendered normalcy an elusive dream and cast a pall over their military's strategic victory. Still, residents have slowly trickled back to Kalynivske, preferring to live without basic services, dependent on humanitarian aid and under the constant threat of bombardment than as displaced people elsewhere in their country. Staying is an act of defiance against the relentless Russian attacks intended to make the area unlivable, they say. “This territory is liberated. I feel it,” Trofimenko says. “Before, there were no people on the streets. They were empty. Some people evacuated, some people hid in their houses.”“When you go out on the street now, you see happy people walking around,” she says. The Associated Press followed a United Nations humanitarian aid convoy into the village on Saturday, when blankets, solar lamps, jerrycans, bed linens and warm clothes were delivered to the local warehouse of a distribution center. Russian forces captured Kherson province in the early days of the war. The majority of the nearly 1,000 residents in Kalynivske remained in their homes throughout the occupation. Most were too fragile or ill to leave, others did not have the means to escape.
The 83-year old’s advanced cancer is so painful it is hard for him to speak. When a mortar destroyed the back of his house, neighbors rushed to his rescue and patched it up with tarps. They still come by every day, to make sure he is fed and taken care of.
“Visit again, soon,” is all he can muster to say to them. Oleksandra Hryhoryna, 75, moved in with a neighbor when the missiles devastated her small house near the village center. Her frail figure steps over the spent shells and shrapnel that cover her front yard. She struggles up the pile of bricks, what remains of the stairs, leading to her front door. She came to the aid distribution center pulling her bicycle and left with a bag full of tinned food, her main source of sustenance these days.
But it’s the lack of electricity that is the major problem, Hryhoryna explains. “We are using handmade candles with oil and survive that way,” she says.
The main road that leads to her home is littered with the remnants of the war, an eerie museum of what was and what everyone here hopes will never return. Destroyed Russian tanks rust away in the fields. Cylindrical anti-tank missiles gleam, embedded in grassy patches. Occasionally, there is the tail end of a cluster munition lodged into the earth. Bright red signs emblazoned with a skull warn passersby not to get too close. The Russians left empty ammunition boxes, trenches and tarp-covered tents during their rapid retreat. A jacket and, some kilometers away, men’s underwear hangs on the bare branches. And with the Russians waging ongoing attacks to win back the lost ground in Kherson, it is sometimes hard for terrorized residents to feel as if the occupying forces ever left.
“I’m very afraid,” says Trofimenko. “Even sometimes I’m screaming. I’m very, very scared. And I’m worried about us getting shelled again and for (the fighting) to start again. This is the most terrible thing that exists.”The deprivation suffered in the village is mirrored all over Kherson, from the provincial capital of the same name to the constellation of villages divided by tracts of farmland that surround it. Ukrainian troops reclaimed the territory west of the Dnieper River in November after a major counteroffensive led to a Russian troop withdrawal, hailed as one of the greatest Ukrainian victories of the 11-month war.
The U.N. ramped up assistance, supporting 133,000 individuals in Kherson with cash assistance, and 150,000 with food. Many villagers in Kalynivske say the food aid is the only reason they have something to eat. “One of the biggest challenges is that the people who are there are the most vulnerable. It’s mainly the elderly, many who have a certain kind of disability, people who could not leave the area, and are really reliant on aid organizations and local authorities who are working around the clock,” says Saviano Abreu, a spokesperson for the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
The shelling is constant. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reports near daily incidents of shelling in Kherson city and surrounding villages, including rocket, artillery and mortar attacks. Most fall closer to the river banks nearer to the front line, but, that doesn’t mean those living further away feel any safer. On Friday, a missile fell in the village of Kochubeivka, north of Kalynivske, killing one person. “Kherson managed to resume most of the essential services, but the problem is the hostilities keep creating challenges to ensure they are sustained,” Abreu says. “Since December, it’s getting worse and worse. The number of attacks and hostilities there is only increasing.” Without electricity, there is no means to pump piped drinking water. Many line up to fetch well water, but a lot is needed to perform daily functions, residents complain. To keep warm, many forage around the village for firewood. This is also not without danger. “Before we could easily get wood from the forest, but now there are mines everywhere,” says Oleksandr Zheihin, 47. Everyone in Kalynivske knows the story of Nina Zvarech. The woman went looking for firewood in the forest and was killed when she stepped on a mine. Her body lay there for over a month, her relatives too afraid to go and find her.

Ukraine says it repels attack around Blahodatne, Wagner claims control
(Reuters)/Sun, January 29, 2023
Ukraine's military said on Sunday its forces repelled an attack in the area of Blahodatne in the eastern part of the Donetsk region, while Russia's Wagner private military group said it took control of the village. "Units of Ukraine's Defence Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of ... Blahodatne ... in the Donetsk region," the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said in its daily morning report, referring to fighting on Saturday. It added that its forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of 13 other settlements in the Donetsk region. The Wagner Group, designated by the United States as transnational criminal organisation, said on the Telegram messaging app on Saturday that its units had taken control of Blahodatne. With fighting heating up in the Donetsk region, the exact line of contact has been unclear, especially around the town Bakhmut where some of the heaviest fighting of the war has been taking place in recent weeks. The Wagner Group has made premature success claims before. Ukraine has said that the Russian offensive on Bakhmut has not culminated, but the situation along the front line there has been growingly difficult. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that it was acute. Four civilians were killed, one in Bakhmut, and 17 wounded in Russian attacks on the region on Saturday, Pavlo Kyrylenko, governor of the Donetsk region said on the Telegram messaging app. Ukraine has won promises of Western battle tanks and is seeking fighter jets to push back against Russian and pro-Moscow forces, which are slowly advancing along part of the front line. On Saturday, Zelenskiy's top aide said that expedited talks were under way between Ukraine and its allies about its requests for long-range missiles to prevent Russia from destroying Ukrainian cities.

Kremlin: Putin open 'to contacts' with Germany's Scholz -RIA
Jan 29 (Reuters)/Sun, January 29, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to contacts with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz though has no phone call scheduled with him, a Kremlin spokesman told the state RIA Novosti news agency on Sunday. Germany, previously the West's main holdout on providing modern battle tanks to Ukraine to help it fight off Russia's invasion, said last week it would send 14 of its Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv and also approve Leopard shipments by allied European countries. The announcement, followed shortly afterwards by a U.S. pledge of M1 Abrams tanks to Kyiv, infuriated the Kremlin. "For now, there are no agreed talks (with Scholz) in the schedule. Putin has been and remains open to contacts," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying by RIA Novosti. Scholz was quoted by the Berlin daily Tagesspiegel in an interview published on Sunday as saying, "I will also speak to Putin again – because it is necessary to speak.”He added: “The onus is on Putin to withdraw troops from Ukraine to end this horrendous, senseless war that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives already.”Spokespeople for Scholz could not be immediately reached for comment. He is currently on a visit to South America. Putin and Scholz last spoke by phone in early December. The Russian leader said at the time the German and Western line on Ukraine was "destructive" and called on Berlin to rethink its approach. Germany is the second largest donor of military hardware to Ukraine after the United States, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, ahead of other European powers such as France and Britain. Moscow calls its actions a "special military operation" to fend off a hostile, encroaching West. Ukraine and its allies say the invasion was an unprovoked act of aggression. Kyiv says peace talks are possible only if Russia stops attacking and withdraws all forces from Ukrainian soil.

Crimea is shaping up to be the battleground that will decide the Russia-Ukraine war
John Haltiwanger/Business Insider/January 29, 2023
Crimea is poised to be the next big battlefield, and one that could decide the Ukraine war.
"The decisive terrain for this war is Crimea," Ben Hodges, a former commander of US Army Europe, told Insider.
Ukraine will "never be safe or secure" if Russia retains control of Crimea, Hodges siad.
The war in Ukraine is poised to become even more violent this year with a major Russian offensive expected and more advanced Western-made weapons pouring in to bolster Ukrainian forces. Along these lines, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg recently warned that the war has entered a "decisive phase."
This new stage of the war could bring the fight to a territory vital to Russia's military capabilities in Ukraine and cherished by Russian President Vladimir Putin: Crimea.
The Black Sea peninsula, which was invaded by Russian forces and illegally annexed by Putin in 2014, served as a launchpad for Russia's invasion last February and helped pave the way for Russian forces to occupy a significant chunk of southern Ukraine. Crimea continues to be a base of attack for Russian aircraft and warships striking Ukraine.
"The decisive terrain for this war is Crimea. The Ukrainian government knows that they cannot settle for Russia retaining control of Crimea,"retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of US Army Europe, told Insider.
"The next few months will see Ukraine setting the conditions for the eventual liberation of Crimea," he added, emphasizing that the country will "never be safe or secure or able to rebuild their economy so long as Russia retains Crimea."
Russia occupies Crimea and a significant swath of southern Ukraine — including the cities of Melitopol and Mariupol — that provides it with a land bridge from its own border to the Crimean peninsula. This area serves as a pivotal supply route for the Russian military. The peninsula, roughly the size of Massachusetts, is home to a number of military bases and Russia's Black Sea fleet.
Crimea — annexed by the Russian Empire under Catherine the Great in 1783 — also has major symbolic importance to Putin, who has tied Russia's war in Ukraine to its imperial past. Putin has referred to Crimea as a "holy land" for Russia. In many ways, Putin's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 set the stage for the wider war of conquest that he launched last year. The fight to retake Crimea could be extremely bloody, in a war that's already led to massive casualties for both sides. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, who has maintained that negotiations will be necessary to end the war, in November said the likelihood of Ukraine kicking Russia out of Crimea "anytime soon is not high, militarily." But there also appears to be a growing cohort of military experts who believe that reclaiming Crimea is imperative to Ukraine's long-term survival, and contend that Ukrainian forces have already shown they have the ability to get the job done. A threatening campaign against Crimea could also provide a boost to Kyiv's negotiation power in any future peace talks.
"As long as the peninsula remains in the Kremlin's hands, Ukraine — and Ukrainians — cannot be free of Russian aggression," Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine's former defense minister, recently wrote in Foreign Affairs.
"After consecutive months of battlefield success, it is clear that Ukraine has the capacity to liberate Crimea," Zagorodnyuk went on to say, adding, "Ukraine should therefore plan to liberate Crimea—and the West should plan to help."
'Crimea is our land'
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pledged to expel Russian forces out of all occupied territory, including Crimea. With a new Russian offensive expected to begin in the near future and a fierce desire to retake control of occupied territories, Kyiv has pushed hard for more advanced weapons from the West."Crimea is our land, it is our territory, it is our sea and our mountains. Give us your weapons and we will bring our land back," Zelenskyy said via video link at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos this month.
This week, the US and Germany announced they will send advanced Leopard and M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, fulfilling a major request. Ukraine has emphasized that tanks will be necessary to regain control of occupied territories that Russians have mined and are likely to defend with trench networks.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday said the US would provide Ukraine with 31 M1 Abrams tanks. Ahead of the announcement, a senior administration official told reporters that the tanks were being provided not only to bolster Ukraine's defensive capabilities but also to give it the ability to reclaim "sovereign territory." The official said this includes Crimea.
"Crimea is Ukraine. We've never recognized the illegal annexation," the official said.
Similarly, Biden on Wednesday said, "With spring approaching, the Ukrainian forces are working to defend the territory they hold and preparing for additional counter-offensives. To liberate their land, they need to be able to counter Russia's evolving tactics and strategy on the battlefield in the very near term."
A US M1 Abrams tank
A number of top military experts contend that the West's apprehensiveness surrounding various weapons is prolonging the war and hindering Ukraine's ability to take the fight to the Russian invaders at a pivotal moment.
"The allies must simply stop the 'give them part of what they need, slower than they need it' approach to supplying Ukraine. This approach has gone on too long already. Ukraine needs more air defense systems, tanks, and long-range artillery — and rockets to do what is necessary," retired US Army Lt. Gen. James Dubik, now a senior fellow at the Institute for the Study of War, wrote in a recent op-ed for The Hill.
Providing Ukraine with tanks is "very important," Hodges said, before adding that "they are only part of the overall effort required for Ukraine to win, to defeat Russian forces, and to compel them to leave Crimea." To successfully boot Russia out of Crimea, Hodges underscored that Ukraine will need long-range precision strike weapons like the longer-range ATACMS missiles that can be fired from a truck-mounted HIMARS launcher.
Liberating Crimea could be achieved by isolating the peninsula via air and land attacks to sever and disrupt Russia's main links to Crimea — the Kerch Bridge, which has already been sabotaged by Ukraine, and the so-called land bridge (occupied territory linking Russia to Crimea).
Once Crimea is isolated, Ukraine would need to employ a "wide array of long-range systems against the exposed Russian facilities and groupings in Crimea, making it untenable for them, and compelling them to leave," Hodges added.
That said, the Biden administration has so far pushed back on providing Ukraine with long-range missile systems that could be used to strike inside Russia or reach certain installations in Crimea. Hodges said the US government's unwillingness to provide longer-range weapons has effectively provided "sanctuary" for Russian systems in Crimea and elsewhere that are "killing innocent Ukrainians.""Delivering capabilities which will deny Russia any sanctuary for its air, drone, and missile strikes will enable Ukraine to make Crimea untenable for the Russians," Hodges added.
'We have crossed a threshold'
If Ukraine moved to retake Crimea, it could renew concerns that Putin might turn to a nuclear weapon. Putin has made a number of nuclear threats since the war began, vowing to protect Russia's territorial integrity.
But many top military analysts have repeatedly said that Putin's nuclear threats are largely designed to deter further Western support for Ukraine, and are skeptical he would actually use such a weapon. Ukraine has pushed Russian forces out of areas Putin now claims as part of Russia, such as Kherson, without facing a nuclear response. And Russian assets in Crimea, including air bases, have already been targeted with Ukrainian attacks.
"There is more clarity on their tolerance for damage and attacks," said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, recently told the New York Times. "Crimea has already been hit many times without a massive escalation from the Kremlin."
As things stand, there's a slim chance Russia and Ukraine will hold talks or negotiations to end the war. Putin's decision to illegally annex four Ukrainian territories in September, despite the fact Russian forces do not fully occupy these regions, effectively threw the possibility of talks out the window. Ukraine has been clear it will not agree to any deals requiring it to cede territory to Russia, and it's highly unlikely Moscow would ever walk back on its new territorial claims in Ukraine.
In short, the fighting will continue, and the West's involvement in the war is so deep that it's reached a point of no return. "Foreign policy rests on the credibility of countries and especially the credibility of the big powers. If the US and its main allies were seen as unable to defend a victim of aggression on the European continent — try to imagine, what does it mean for foreign policy elsewhere?" Araud said, pointing to the potentially reverberating consequences of a Russian victory — particularly for other places that face threats from much larger powers, such as Taiwan. "Without saying it, and maybe without knowing it, we have crossed a threshold. Now, for the West, a defeat of Ukraine is unacceptable," Araud said. "We have done so much now that the victory of Russia will be a real defeat of the West, and I think the West will not accept it."

How Russia is molding the minds of schoolkids to support its brutal invasion of Ukraine
Elise Morton/Business Insider/January 29, 2023
Russia is running a campaign of propaganda lessons to rally support for its invasion of Ukraine.
Insider reviewed troves of lesson materials posted online as part of the nationwide program.
The lessons are said to be facing resistance and sabotage from teachers unwilling to teach them.
Russia is targeting schoolkids with propaganda meant to underpin its invasion of Ukraine, preparing children as young as 7 to be ready to die for their country. The campaign takes the form of compulsory patriotic lessons, rolled out by the Kremlin in late 2022. Officials uploaded a slew of approved lesson plans and talking points to a government website, which Insider reviewed and translated. Although clearly a response to the invasion of Ukraine, the materials avoid naming the conflict and instead take a more subtle route. The series is euphemistically called "Conversations about important things", with the stated aim of "strengthening traditional Russian spiritual and moral values."The first lessons were taught in September 2022, just as Russia was drafting 300,000 military reservists to fight in Ukraine. Many of them would have been waved off by their school-age children, and some are undoubtedly now among Russia's vast number of war dead. According to the Teachers' Alliance independent trade union, the program was originally explicit in its mission to sell kids on the war in Ukraine. But, the union said, "huge internal resistance" from Russia's teachers forced officials to edit out most references to the "special military operation" and achieve its aims less directly. Lessons are given themes like "Day of Knowledge" and "Day of National Unity," with teachers provided with Kremlin-approved presentations, videos and full lesson scripts.
A scripted introductory speech for one lesson was a eulogy to Russia's claimed annexation of Ukrainian territory just days before at the end of September. (In reality, the votes were widely dismissed as a sham, and much of its ostensibly annexed territory is controlled by Ukraine.)
But children as young as 11 were told the annexation was justice overdue. "For eight years, the population of these regions was subjected to constant shelling and ill-treatment by the Kyiv regime," the script reads, leaning into the debunked Russian refrain that Ukraine is a Nazi regime oppressing its own people.
Russia, the script continues, provided a refuge: "The inhabitants of these regions turned to us," it said, and "almost unanimously voted for joining the Russian Federation," it said, citing the heavily disputed voting totals.
The script also repeated the claim, advanced elsewhere by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, that it also righted a centuries-old wrong and "restored historical justice, returning the original Russian lands" to rule from Moscow.
Elsewhere, a lesson ostensibly celebrating Russia's World War II veterans glides into praising "our fathers, brothers [...] defending the freedom of their compatriots, their fellow citizens" in Ukraine's occupied east.At times the lessons prompt the children to imagine themselves fighting in a war for Russia — something which for the older children could become a reality within years. The penultimate class of 2022, marking Heroes of the Fatherland Day, includes an address by Dmitry Perminov, a Russian politician and former army officer celebrated for his role in the Dagestan War in the '90s. Amid tales of heroic deeds, including honouring doctors who saved the life of a young Russian soldier fighting in Ukraine, Perminov has a simple message for children: this could be you. Unlike in the West, he says, where their heroes are "fictional characters", in Russia their heroes are "simple people" fighting on the battlefield, and even "schoolkids". Another lesson script has an even clearer message: "You can't become a patriot if you only declare slogans," it said. "Truly patriotic people are ready to defend their Motherland with weapons in hand."
As well as reaching young Russian minds, the program is also being delivered to children in occupied Ukraine, part of Moscow's push to replace the language and culture there with its own. Proof of this is contained in the Kremlin's supplementary lesson materials, including competition entries where schools seek to outdo each other in dedication to Russia. Among these is a striking piece of pageantry from Donetsk, which shows a group of teenagers stiffly singing the Russian national anthem before the camera turns to the front of the classroom: nine girls in silky dresses matching the white, blue, and red of the Russian flag.
"The people of the Donbas are proud of their national symbols and love their motherland, Russia," the teacher says, using the joint name for the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine that have seen the worst fighting.
The children then dance for the camera. Despite the risks, anti-war activists have called for a mass boycott of the program. With the rollout of the curriculum, the Teachers' Alliance published template statements of resistance for teachers and parents to send to schools, calling on local leaders to "free children from propaganda lessons." Speaking to the independent Russian news outlet Meduza, which now reports in exile from Latvia, union spokesperson Daniil Kent said there was "massive sabotage" of the lessons. Swathes of teachers, he said, had decided "to ignore these manuals and conduct the lesson in their own way".
Despite such movements, one elementary-school teacher told Insider she was still worried about the lessons. The teacher spoke to Insider on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals.
"For the teenagers, these classes will not be enough to brainwash them," she said. "They have access to the world via the internet. It's the effect on young children, whose whole world is their school and family, that scares me."

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a real and dangerous possibility that could wreck armies and ruin the global economy worse than the 1929 stock market crash
Jacob Zinkula,Jake Epstein/Business Insider/January 29, 2023
It could be only a matter of time before China invades Taiwan.
Experts say the military and economic impacts for could be catastrophic, and not just for China and Taiwan.
The conflict could bring about a global recession and significant military losses.
Separated from mainland China by a narrow strait, Taiwan faces a constant threat from a powerful neighbor that claims the island as an inseparable part of its territory. Taiwan is armed to the teeth and has powerful friends, but with China growing stronger and more aggressive, the risk of armed conflict is climbing higher.Beijing continues to view the island's democratic government as a challenge to its authoritarian rule, and has never taken the use of force off the table to get what it wants. In October, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said China might take steps to annex Taiwan on a "much faster timeline" than previously thought. Whether it's 2030, 2027, 2025, or even this year, experts say it could wreak havoc on the global economy and take a devastating toll on the militaries involved.
The US, which has armed Taiwan with everything from air defense systems to anti-ship missiles to fighter jets, is not required to intervene China invades Taiwan. But President Joe Biden has broken away from strategic ambiguity and said that the US would come to the island's defense if China invaded, meaning that if a fight breaks out over Taiwan, it could get messy in a hurry.
War games say China likely loses, but nobody wins
Beijing has noticeably "intensified" its military, diplomatic, and political pressure against Taiwan and increased its "provocative and destabilizing actions," the US Department of Defense wrote in a 2022 report on China's military.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army is spending more time carrying out drills focused on seizing islands by force and flying more bombers, fighters, and other aircraft near Taiwan, the Pentagon reported.
Though China's actions have stirred fears of a possible Chinese attack, the US military assesses that an invasion of Taiwan would prove extremely difficult for the Chinese military. It would likely invite intervention from other militaries, strain the Chinese People's Liberation Army, and create political and military risks for Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the ruling Chinese Communist Party.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies recently ran war games looking at how a large-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan might play out, and the outcomes were bleak for China, but also for everyone else involved.
China would start by bombing Taiwan's air force and navy before using its own naval forces to surround and lay siege to the island. Meanwhile, Chinese air assault and airborne troops would land on Taiwan's shores as tens of thousands of soldiers head to the island on civilian cargo ships and military amphibious vessels.
But Beijing's efforts would likely not be enough, CSIS found. Chinese troops would struggle to strengthen their supplies and move inland from the beaches, where they would be met by stiff resistance from defending Taiwanese forces.
US and Japanese forces, assuming they came to the island's aid, would likely be able to take out China's amphibious fleet, but at tremendous cost.
Taiwan would probably remain unconquered but heavily damaged, CSIS concluded. For example, the island would struggle to maintain basic services and electricity, and its military would be significantly depleted. China, on the other hand, would be left with tens of thousands of soldiers killed, wounded, or captured, a navy in total ruins, and a shattered amphibious force.
It could be only a matter of time before China invades Taiwan.
Experts say the military and economic impacts for could be catastrophic, and not just for China and Taiwan.
The conflict could bring about a global recession and significant military losses.
Separated from mainland China by a narrow strait, Taiwan faces a constant threat from a powerful neighbor that claims the island as an inseparable part of its territory. Taiwan is armed to the teeth and has powerful friends, but with China growing stronger and more aggressive, the risk of armed conflict is climbing higher. Beijing continues to view the island's democratic government as a challenge to its authoritarian rule, and has never taken the use of force off the table to get what it wants. In October, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said China might take steps to annex Taiwan on a "much faster timeline" than previously thought. Whether it's 2030, 2027, 2025, or even this year, experts say it could wreak havoc on the global economy and take a devastating toll on the militaries involved.
The US, which has armed Taiwan with everything from air defense systems to anti-ship missiles to fighter jets, is not required to intervene China invades Taiwan. But President Joe Biden has broken away from strategic ambiguity and said that the US would come to the island's defense if China invaded, meaning that if a fight breaks out over Taiwan, it could get messy in a hurry.
War games say China likely loses, but nobody wins
Beijing has noticeably "intensified" its military, diplomatic, and political pressure against Taiwan and increased its "provocative and destabilizing actions," the US Department of Defense wrote in a 2022 report on China's military.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army is spending more time carrying out drills focused on seizing islands by force and flying more bombers, fighters, and other aircraft near Taiwan, the Pentagon reported.
Though China's actions have stirred fears of a possible Chinese attack, the US military assesses that an invasion of Taiwan would prove extremely difficult for the Chinese military. It would likely invite intervention from other militaries, strain the Chinese People's Liberation Army, and create political and military risks for Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the ruling Chinese Communist Party.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies recently ran war games looking at how a large-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan might play out, and the outcomes were bleak for China, but also for everyone else involved.
China would start by bombing Taiwan's air force and navy before using its own naval forces to surround and lay siege to the island. Meanwhile, Chinese air assault and airborne troops would land on Taiwan's shores as tens of thousands of soldiers head to the island on civilian cargo ships and military amphibious vessels. But Beijing's efforts would likely not be enough, CSIS found. Chinese troops would struggle to strengthen their supplies and move inland from the beaches, where they would be met by stiff resistance from defending Taiwanese forces.
US and Japanese forces, assuming they came to the island's aid, would likely be able to take out China's amphibious fleet, but at tremendous cost. Taiwan would probably remain unconquered but heavily damaged, CSIS concluded. For example, the island would struggle to maintain basic services and electricity, and its military would be significantly depleted. China, on the other hand, would be left with tens of thousands of soldiers killed, wounded, or captured, a navy in total ruins, and a shattered amphibious force.
One important condition for Taiwan's survival, the Washington-based think tank noted, is that the island must be able to withstand the initial Chinese assault and avoid surrendering before US and partner forces can get involved.
"In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan," CSIS summarized in its report on the simulations. "However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of service members. Taiwan saw its economy devastated." The CSIS report added that "the high losses damaged the US global position for many years" while noting that "China also lost heavily" and that the failure to occupy Taiwan led to instability within the Chinese Communist Party.
Threats to one company could spell catastrophe
Looking at this situation from an economic perspective, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could mean trillions of dollars in losses and a serious global recession. Taiwan is home to TSMC, the world's biggest chipmaker. Given that no other company makes such advanced chips at such a high volume, a conflict could mean the production of everything from cars to iPhones grinds to a halt. "If China would invade Taiwan, that would be the biggest impact we've seen to the global economy — possibly ever," Glenn O'Donnell, the vice president and research director at Forrester, previously told Insider. "This could be bigger than 1929."While US businesses can take some steps to reduce their reliance on Taiwan chipmaking, including bolstering their chip inventories and diversifying their supply chains, this is unlikely to mitigate the full risk of a Taiwan crisis.
"Given how predominant Taiwan is in the global semiconductor value chain, even with adjustments, any type of disruption to access to Taiwan semiconductor output is going to have tremendous consequences for the global economy," Martijn Rasser, a former senior intelligence officer at the CIA, who is now a security and technology expert at the Center for a New American Security, told Insider . If the US and its allies, for instance, imposed significant sanctions on Chinese imports following an invasion, there could be a "huge impact on American consumers and the US economy generally," William Alan Reinsch, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a national security think tank, told Insider.
While the US and its allies have imposed strong sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, "It would be much more challenging in the China context," Rasser said, "just because of the economic interdependencies that are there" between the countries.
In the event of an invasion, there's been speculation the US would consider evacuating TSMC's engineers — or even destroy the company's facilities — to prevent China from having sole access to TSMC's chip production.
But Chen Ming-tong, director-general of Taiwan's National Security Bureau, said in October these steps would not be necessary. The US and other countries could simply cut off TSMC's access to supply chains it needs to keep production running, he said, resulting in a situation in which there is "no way TSMC can continue its production.""Even if China got a hold of the golden hen, it won't be able to lay golden eggs," he added. The potential economic consequences of an invasion for both China and the rest of the world, as well as the possibility that China lose access to TSMC's semiconductors, could serve to deter an invasion in the short-term.
A crisis in 2023 is probably unlikely
While the risk of a conflict in the medium term appears to have increased, there's a good chance the countries avoid a conflict in 2023. "We've seen increased surface vessel activity around Taiwan," US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said during a press conference Wednesday. "But whether or not that means that an invasion is imminent, you know, I seriously doubt that." "I don't think Xi will make a move until and unless he is absolutely sure that an invasion will be successful," Gen. James Clapper, who led the intelligence community under President Obama, previously told Insider. "And right now, I don't think he has the degree of certitude." "China will defer moves that could possibly provoke military conflict until the balance of power is decisively in its favor," the political research and consulting firm Eurasia Group said in its 2023 top risks report, "or until the US is ruled by a president who is clearly unwilling to defend Taiwan. None of this is remotely possible in 2023."Expectations are largely that China would not take such a risk until later this decade at the earliest. Others have argued it's in the self interest of both China and the United State to overplay the likelihood of a Taiwan invasion. The threat gives China negotiating power, they say, and justifies additional military spending in the US.

Azerbaijan to evacuate embassy in Iran on Sunday after fatal shooting
BAKU (Reuters)/Sun, January 29, 2023
Azerbaijan will evacuate embassy staff and family members from Iran on Sunday, the foreign ministry said, two days after a gunman shot dead a security guard and wounded two other people in an attack Baku branded an "act of terrorism". Police in Tehran have said they had arrested a suspect and Iranian authorities condemned Friday's incident, but said the gunman appeared to have had a personal, not a political, motive. The incident came amid increased tensions between the neighbouring countries over Iran's treatment of its large ethnic Azeri minority and over Azerbaijan's decision this month to appoint its first ever ambassador to Israel. After the attack, the Azeri foreign ministry said it summoned Iran's ambassador in Baku to demand justice and would evacuate embassy staff from Tehran. It gave no further details, including whether the embassy would continue to function. Earlier, the ministry said the shooting was the result of Tehran failing to heed its calls for better security. CCTV footage obtained by Reuters showed the attacker forcing his way into the embassy building and shooting at two men before a third embassy employee grapples him away. A grey-haired man identified as the attacker was later shown on Iranian state TV saying he had acted to secure the release of his Azeri wife who he believed was being held at the embassy. A young woman identified as the man's daughter said her mother was in Azerbaijan. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi called for "a comprehensive investigation" of the incident and sent his condolences to Azerbaijan and the dead man's family, state media said.

Egypt ready to assume mediation role between Armenia and Azerbaijan, says President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
NNA/Sun, January 29, 2023
President of Armenia Vahagn Khachaturyan and President of Egypt Abdel Fattah el-Sisi presided over the signing of a number of agreements and MoUs between the government ministries of the two countries on cooperation, particularly the MoU on Scientific and Technological Cooperation Between the Government of the Republic of Armenia and the Arab Republic of Egypt, the MoU between the Investment Support Center of Armenia and Egypt’s General Authority for Investments and Free Zones, the MoU Between the Armenian Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Sport and Egypt’s Ministry of Youth and Sports on Cooperation in Physical Culture and Sport. During their meeting, the Armenian President welcomed his Egyptian counterpart’s visit to Armenia and described it as an historic event. “Welcoming his counterpart, President Khachaturyan said that the friendly people of Egypt were one of the first to give refuge to the thousands of Armenians who survived the atrocities of the genocide in the Ottoman Empire, and the Armenian people throughout the Diaspora will never forget the hospitality that was given to our compatriots. The President said that the Armenian community in Egypt has become one of the most important bridges linking our friendly countries,” the Presidential Office said in a press release. The Armenian President attached importance to utilizing the potential of developing trade-economic ties between Armenia and Egypt in agriculture, technology and tourism.
President of Egypt Abdel Fattah el-Sisi thanked for the warm hospitality and attached importance to the need to advance the multilayered Armenian-Egyptian cooperation in the direction of trade-economic sector, as well as development of diplomatic relations. In his remarks, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said that Egypt too has faced regional conflicts and is ready to invest efforts for the peaceful resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. “Till this day Egypt continues to witness various regional issues and conflict, and we must note a very important fact, that in the 70s of the previous century Egypt took the path of peace and faced a number of obstacles on that path…”“…During our closed talks I stated that we have a neutral position in the issue of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and in this regard, if you accept our mediation and if you would like us to mediate or assume such a role, then we are ready ,” the Armenian President’s Office quoted the Egyptian President as saying.
The presidents discussed exchange of experience in agriculture and infrastructures, implementation of various investment programs, as well as overcoming obstacles for tourism developing, and in this regard addressed the possibilities for launching direct Yerevan-Cairo flights. “We are happy to host you at the Presidential residence. This is a historic event. This is the first time that the President of the Arab Republic of Egypt is visiting Armenia, and I thank you for that,” President Khachaturyan said during the enlarged meeting of the delegations after a one-on-one meeting with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. “The President of Egypt presented the issues of his country and region, and I presented the issues of Armenia and the region. It’s no secret that Egypt is a superpower in its region and it is also known that it has vast experience in mediating mission, and most importantly it presents the interests of the peace agenda, it is like-minded in terms of living peacefully with neighbors, peaceful coexistence. And we are very much alike in this regard. The policy of the Republic of Armenia is to achieve peace in the region, and to live a peaceful and prosperous life with neighbors,” the Armenian President said.
President Khachaturyan said Armenia will need Egypt’s experience in establishing peace and stability in the region.
“I personally need the Egyptian president’s advice, because he has faced big challenges in his political and military past, he’s seen wars and achieved Egypt becoming a stable and developing country. I once again thank you for your visit. I am sure that our discussions today will be productive and will contribute to the development of our two countries,” President Khachaturyan said.President of Egypt Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said he discussed with Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan a number of international and regional issues of common interest, in the Middle East and South Caucasus. The two presidents confirmed the importance of dialogue, negotiation and sustained action to achieve permanent, comprehensive and just peace to complete the course of peace, to achieve a better reality and decent life for the peoples, particularly at present when the people’s suffering has doubled at the economic level, in light of the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, President of Egypt Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said during a joint press conference with his Armenian counterpart. President el-Sisi said he is confident that his visit to Armenia will represent a real starting point, by the political momentum gained and understanding shared at the summit level, to strengthen Egyptian-Armenian relations in various fields, particularly at the economic and investment level. The Egyptian President expressed his country’s readiness to participate in implementation of infrastructure projects in Armenia. --- ARMEN PRESS

US To Pressure Partners Into Enforcing Anti-Russia Sanctions — Reuters
NNA/January, 29/2023
The US Treasury Department's top sanctions official will visit Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates next week to warn officials and businesses there that Washington will punish them if they dodge its sanctions on Russia, Reuters reported. Brian Nelson, the department’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, will travel to Oman, the UAE, and Türkiye between Sunday and Friday. Meeting with government officials, businesses, and financial institutions, Nelson will caution them that they could lose access to US markets “on account of doing business with sanctioned entities,” a Treasury spokesperson told the news agency. US officials have repeatedly highlighted Türkiye as a potential hub of sanctions evasion, and unnamed Western officials told the Financial Times in August that they were “deeply concerned” about allegations of trade between Turkish firms and sanctioned Russian entities. --- RT

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 29-30/2023
Details of Soliemani’s Elimination
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 29/2023
The memoirs of former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo "Never Give an Inch, Fighting for the America I Love," offers remarkable insights about Iran. While much of what he tells us is not new, the details he goes into warrant a detailed discussion. Pompeo not only served as chief US diplomat under former President Donald Trump but also as director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) - a position he held between January 2017 and April 2018.
In his book, Pompeo tells us two things as he discusses the lead-up to the decision to eliminate Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2020, after his departure from Baghdad airport, and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, the founder of the Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq.
First, he says that on a visit he made to Baghdad as CIA chief, he met with the prime minister at the time, Haider al-Abadi, to persuade him not to obtain energy resources from Iran. At that time, Abadi replied: “Mr. Director, when you leave, Qassem Soleimani will come to see me. You can take my money. He will take my life.”Second, he maintains that he realized early on that “the Iranian regime is just a terrorist organization” that has taken the form of a fully-fledged state. He concluded that the primary headquarters of Al-Qaeda is in Tehran and “not in Tora Bora in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, or Syria.”Alright, these are the memoirs of a former director of the Central Intelligence Agency and former Secretary of State. These claims cannot go unscrutinized. They are made by a man who has a lot of information that cannot be published, and he cannot say things on a whim.
Thus, the question here is, could the information Pompeo received about Iran’s terrorist activities and destructive actions in Iraq and the region only have been given to him personally? Or is this information available to US state agencies?
Is it possible that the Obama administration was unaware of the fact that, as Pompeo explains, the operational headquarters of Al-Qaeda was in Tehran, that “the Iranian regime is just a terrorist organization” that only looks like a fully-fledged state, and that Qassem Soleimani was a symbol of terrorism?
What Pompeo tells of Soleimani, through the story of his meeting with Abadi, or his affirmation that Al-Qaeda’s operational headquarters are in Tehran, was not unknown but open secrets. Nonetheless, the American media, despite some attempts to shed light on it, has met these revelations with silence.
General David Petraeus, who shared a similar story about Soleimani’s role in Iraq, was among those who tried to shed light on these dangerous matters. In early 2012, a senior Arab official told me personally that his intelligence services were tracking the now-eliminated terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi as he moved back and forth from Iraq to Iran. There are similar examples. And so, there can bd no doubt that security and intelligence information, like everything else, is being politicized in the United States. Otherwise, how could all this information about Iran and Soleimani be ignored, whether under the Obama administration or now under the Biden administration? It is indeed startling…and it seems that what's hidden is worse!

Why the EU should designate the IRGC a terrorist organization
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 29, 2023
The time is long overdue for the EU to designate the Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization for several important reasons. First of all, from a human rights perspective, the IRGC and its paramilitary group, the Basij, are heavily involved in the suppression of protesters. Recently revealed orders by the IRGC’s top brass, including commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, to quickly crush the persistent ongoing protests are perhaps the best illustration of the IRGC’s suppressive machinery and its units.Mohammed Azimi and Kourosh Asiabani, who command IRGC units, have, according to the US Department of State, “allegedly committed some of the worst acts by Iranian security forces since the beginning of protests in September 2022. In Javanrud, a town in Kermanshah province, IRGC troops used live ammunition, including from semi-heavy machine guns, to quell protests, killing and wounding dozens. The IRGC has shelled vehicles attempting to deliver blood bags to those wounded in local hospitals, preventing their delivery. (Mojtaba) Fada, the IRGC commander of Isfahan Province and a member of its provincial security council, has overseen the crackdown on regime opponents in Isfahan.”
In fact, in every major nationwide uprising in Iran, the IRGC has played a key role in brutally crushing demonstrators, as well as harshly silencing opposition to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in order to ensure the survival of the regime.
Amnesty International last month released an updated 48-page report titled “Iran: Killings of children during youthful anti-establishment protests,” detailing the killings of hundreds of protesters, including at least 44 children, by Iran’s IRGC, security forces and police. The report stated: “Extensive video footage and leaked documents analyzed by Amnesty International and numerous eyewitness accounts obtained by the organization indicate that responsibility for the death of hundreds of protesters and bystanders, including dozens of children, lies squarely with Iran’s security forces, including the Revolutionary Guards, paramilitary Basij forces and police.”
The IRGC’s terrorist activities can be witnessed abroad as well. It has supported various terror groups, including Al-Qaeda. In 2011, US District Judge George Daniels held that “Iran, its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Iran’s agencies and instrumentalities, including, among others, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security, and Iran’s terrorist proxy Hezbollah, all materially aided and supported Al-Qaeda before and after 9/11.”
Furthermore, the IRGC’s elite branch, the Quds Force, deploys its proxies and militia groups to attack the interests and assets of the US and its allies in the Middle East, as well as in the soft underbelly of the US — Latin America. In Iraq, the Quds Force exerts significant influence, whether direct or indirect, through a conglomerate of 40 militia groups that operate under the banner of the Popular Mobilization Units.
In every major nationwide uprising in Iran, the IRGC has played a key role in brutally crushing demonstrators. The Quds Force is in charge of the Iranian regime’s extraterritorial operations, which include organizing, supporting, training, arming and financing Iran’s predominantly Shiite militia groups in foreign countries; launching wars directly or indirectly via these proxies; fomenting unrest in other nations to advance Iran’s ideological and hegemonic interests; attacking and invading cities and countries; and assassinating foreign political figures and prominent Iranian dissidents worldwide.
In addition, the Quds Force has been implicated in failed plans to bomb Saudi and Israeli embassies and other targets, including an attempt in 2011 to assassinate then-Saudi Ambassador to the US Adel Al-Jubeir. An investigation revealed that the group was also behind the 2005 assassination of Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
The IRGC has also been engaged in the illegal smuggling of advanced weaponry to its militias and proxies, such as the Houthis and Hezbollah, including kits that can convert unguided rockets into precision-guided missiles. According to Israeli intelligence, “the Iranian Al-Quds Force packs weapons, ammunition and missile technology to Hezbollah in suitcases and puts them on Mahan Air flights … These planes fly directly to the airport in Lebanon or Damascus and from there the weapons are transferred on the ground to Hezbollah.”
The Washington office of opposition group the National Council of Resistance of Iran has published a book on 15 terrorist training centers in Iran, where the IRGC provides ideological, military and tactical training to foreign recruits, who are later dispatched to countries in the Middle East and beyond to conduct terrorist activities.In summary, it is crucial that the EU follows the European parliament’s advice and designates the Iranian regime’s IRGC as a terrorist organization in order to show its support for human rights and to counter the IRGC and its proxies’ terror activities abroad.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Tension is rising between Turkiye and Greece
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/January 29, 2023
Both Turkiye and Greece are on the threshold of important elections and are therefore using a sharpened discourse against each other. High-level officials from Turkiye, Germany and Greece met on Dec. 16 in Brussels in an attempt to smoothen the atmosphere. A German government spokesman said Berlin was eager to ease the tensions between these two countries and that both the Turkish and Greek governments had responded positively to the German initiative. However, in the heat of the preelection atmosphere, these positions may derail at any moment.
Greece heightened the tone of its anti-Turkish rhetoric and provoked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan into increasing the bidding. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu responded by stating that if Greece’s provocative acts continue, “Turkiye might open the file of the sovereignty of the Aegean islands close to the Turkish coast,” because these islands were transferred to Greece on condition that they would be kept demilitarized.
In 1976, increasing tension between Ankara and Athens was defused thanks to the UK’s efforts. That agreement was later transformed into UN Security Council Resolution 395. This resolution invited Turkiye and Greece to avoid unilateral action and solve the problem of the continental shelf, which was one of the contentious issues between them. Turkiye and Greece also signed, again in 1976, a memorandum in Bern, Switzerland, committing themselves to avoiding unilateral action in the Aegean. The tension increased again in 1987, when Greece carried out seismic research beyond the territorial waters of the Greek island of Thasos. In 1996, yet more tension broke out because of the disputed identity of the uninhabited islets of Imia, but the Bern memorandum was applied and any deterioration of the crisis was avoided. The US was instrumental in soothing the tensions.
Cavusoglu’s visit to Washington this month demonstrated that the US is no longer interested in playing such a balancing role. On the contrary, it displays a strong bias in favor of Greece on all subjects between Ankara and Athens.
Ankara may again turn to Germany for a role in appeasing Turkish-Greek tensions but, this time, Greece’s EU membership would weigh on the other side of the scale because an EU member state is not expected to side with a non-EU state. So, even if Germany wants to help Turkiye, its support is bound to be lame. Germany may be expecting from Ankara a more committed attitude against Russia and to join the NATO sanctions. But Turkiye does not seem to be ready to distance itself from Moscow.
The demilitarized status of the Aegean islands close to the Turkish coast is a serious source of contention between the two countries. These islands were given demilitarized status in 1913 at the time of their transfer to Greece. No other agreement has been signed in the meantime to change this status. As for the Greek Dodecanese archipelago, it was placed under the same demilitarized status. This archipelago was later occupied by Italy, but this did not change the demilitarized status of the islands. When they were returned to Greece after the Paris Treaty of 1947, the demilitarized status remained intact.
The guiding principle in making these islands demilitarized was that they were threatening Turkiye’s national security. The occupation of these islands by Italy and their return to Greek sovereignty did not change the basic rule that they constitute a threat to Turkiye’s security. Greece claims that this transfer of sovereignty allowed it to remilitarize the islands. It also claims that the military installations constructed on these islands should not be perceived as military infrastructure. The demilitarized status of the Aegean islands close to the Turkish coast is a serious source of contention.
The act of putting an island in demilitarized status is done through international agreements. This status can be changed only by another international agreement. In the case of the Dodecanese islands, there is no international agreement that has modified this status. Therefore, the islands continue to remain demilitarized. Another crucial issue between Turkiye and Greece is Athens’ intention to increase the width of its territorial waters from six miles to 12. The Turkish parliament has decided that, if Greece takes such a step, Ankara will consider this a casus belli. The reason for this is that the territorial waters of the Greek islands in the Aegean Sea constitute at present 40 percent of the area. If it were to increase the width of its territorial waters to 12 miles, it would control 70 percent of the area of the Aegean and Turkiye’s share would go down from 51 percent to 19 percent. Furthermore, Turkiye’s share of territorial waters would be reduced to 10 percent. Ankara would not accept being strangulated to that extent. We will have to wait and see whether the elections in both countries will help ease today’s tensions.
**Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkiye and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar

Unfettered International Adventurism and Unaccountable Local Rogues
Raghida Dergham/January 29, 2023
There is today a lack of international mechanisms to deter reckless political and military decisions, from the global landscape where nuclear world wars are a possibility, down to the local scale where actors are repressing and engaging in rogue behaviour, confident that the hands of justice will never touch them. There is no international mechanism for accountability left. The theoretical mechanisms of the UN in New York, International Tribunals in the Hague, or human rights forums in Geneva are bogged down by political and bureaucratic calculations and paralysed by cowardice and an absent conscience.
The developments of the Ukraine war suggest we are on the verge of entering a war without rules between Russia and the US-led NATO powers. The rules of conventional warfare will be suspended if we cross a point of no-return, now fast approaching.
The compounded military aid package approved this week by the Biden administration, Germany, Britain, Canada, Italy, France, and other NATO powers, plus contributions from non-NATO states will go beyond transfer of main battle tanks, though these alone will mark a qualitative shift in the war.
Dates in this context have importance, not just for the delivery of missiles, tanks, and ammunition to Ukraine, but also in terms of Russian and Ukrainian preparations for decisive offensives in the next two months.
March is set to be a focal month for the offensive strategies of Russia, Ukraine, and NATO. A hot war could then replace the cold war because of the radical difference between a Russian war on Ukraine, and a NATO war with Russia. The issue now goes beyond winning a round or a battle. It will be a war for survival between Russia and NATO, not just a war of victory or defeat between Russia and Ukraine.
Whose offensive will succeed then come March? This is the heart of the race, amid the impossibility of launching any international initiatives for a political solution, and the de facto collapse of international mechanisms supposed to prevent such dangerous escalations. The UN and its agencies are for all intents and purposes impotent and powerless to act. Even at the level of rhetoric, the UN has failed the tests of conscience and political influence.
Military experts familiar with Russian and Western strategies in Ukraine anticipate the fighting will escalate relentlessly beginning in February. As the timeline for the delivery of Western tanks and military aid to Ukraine approaches, there is increased likelihood for the war between Russia and Ukraine to become a direct war between Russia and NATO, or in other words, World War Three.
There are many possible triggers for such a terrifying scenario, including Poland. Poland is playing a crucial role as an indispensable gateway for the delivery of advanced weaponry from NATO to Ukraine. If Russia carries out a strike on Poland, it would effectively risk triggering a new world war. Under Article 5 of its charter, NATO is legally obligated to respond to any aggression against a NATO member state.
Another example of how the containment of Russia’s military capabilities is expanding is Estonia, which announced recently it is considering the establishment of a contiguous zone regime in the Gulf of Finland, giving it the ability to close the waterway to Russia and isolate Saint Petersburg. Estonia is a NATO member and Finland is in the process of joining the alliance. With the help of other NATO states, the two countries would have then the ability to blockade the port in Saint Petersburg, the largest in Russia and the Baltic Sea. Russia expelled Estonia’s envoy this week, to protest the actions of the government of Estonia. Once part of the Soviet Union, Estonia has recently announced a 113 million euro military aid package to Ukraine, the largest in its history and equivalent to 1 percent of its GDP, according to an Estonian ambassador.
There has been a crucial element in the equation of reducing conflict and building trust between the United States and Russia known as the START Treaty for nuclear and other strategic arms reduction. But in late last November, Moscow indefinitely postponed a meeting with Washington to discuss the resumption of inspections under the New START Treaty signed in 2010. Last week, three months after the postponement of that meeting, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that the current state of US-Russian relations did not allow for further talks, accusing the United States of “provoking Russia”. At some stage, he added, Russia’s reaction will lead to a kind of collapse. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, had previously said that arms control talks cannot be separated from "geopolitical realities”.
The START treaty was created in order to contain conflict during the Cold War. The collapse of the treaty today risks provoking a nuclear war between Washington and Moscow in a hot war that may not stop at the brink, as happened during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. The expiry date for this agreement is February 2026, but there are nuclear concerns accompanying the Ukrainian war and Moscow's rejection of returning to these talks and of further inspections of its nuclear sites, to which the United States is entitled to under START.
President Joe Biden has agreed to supply Ukraine with 31 Abrams battle tanks, to encourage Germany to donate Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv. Britain is training Ukrainian forces on using Challenger tanks, and Norway and others have made similar pledges, forming together what Ukraine has described as a grand ‘tank coalition’.
The offensive weapons package includes in addition to tanks around 1100 missiles, drones, and other hardware. Non-NATO states are also chipping in. Italy for example has supplied both its own equipment and drones from Israel.
We are today seeing an Iranian-Israeli competition in drone warfare in Ukraine. Russia has come to rely in great measure on Iranian drones, which have overturned Western-Iranian relations and adversely impacted the Vienna talks seeking to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran.
The UN has made soft criticism of the entry of heavy tanks into the Ukraine war, while former US President Donald Trump expressed fierce opposition to the move, warning it could lead to nuclear war. But a question here is – why is the United States not concerned about this possibility? More urgently, why are the European states not concerned by this either, given their proximity to what would be ground zero?
The West seems convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats about nuclear weapons are a bluff, given that this would lead to the destruction of Russia before the destruction of Western powers. Russia’s strategic missiles would take 40 minutes to reach the United States, according to one nuclear expert, while their US counterparts can hit Russia in 15 minutes. The West is thus betting on Putin’s fear of becoming the cause of Russia’s destruction. The West is also betting that the Russian military understands that the price Russia would pay in the event of nuclear war would be many times more what the West would incur, and thus would blink first.
One of the problems here, however, is that the Russian military and Putin are convinced Russia can win a nuclear war with NATO, in keeping with their belief Russia can win the war in Ukraine. In other words, the political and military compass of the NATO powers and Russia seems to be broken, along with their instruments of self-restraint. Politicians are losing the plot and progressive military escalation appears to be unchecked and unfettered, with no international mechanisms to rein things in.
At the local level, international mechanisms to keep chaos in check seem to be also suspended, either out of impotence or following narrow political calculations overshadowed by intimidation. Lebanon is a living example of this descent into the law of the jungle, as the world watches with indifference: Neither the UN has sought to send a fact-finding mission into the Beirut Port explosion – a real crime against humanity – nor did the states with advanced satellite capabilities agree to share imagery of what happened on that fateful day, each for different reasons.
There is also the crime of standing idly by the systematic assault led by Lebanon’s political class, foremost of which the ‘Shia Duo’ of Hezbollah and Amal, to stop the work of Tarek Bitar, the investigative judge in charge of the case. Ghassan Oweidat, a top prosecutor close to Hezbollah, even retaliated against Judge Bitar’s resumption of the investigation, by spitefully releasing all those detained as part of the investigation and issuing counter charges against the investigative judge himself, slapping a travel ban on him and referring him to a judicial disciplinary body.
The supposed top law enforcing official in the land released all suspects in the case, betting on US support because one of the detainees is an American citizen – Mohammad Ziad al-Awf – whose lawyer said the US embassy in Beirut helped with travel arrangements for his client, taking him directly from prison to the airport: The law of the jungle thus took over, amid a local-international farce, and international indifference to the suffering of the families of the victims of the blast.
Moral duty should have required a fact-finding mission at the time and now requires holding accountable those who let the suspects escape. It is no achievement to smuggle out a citizen, even if he were innocent. The achievement needed is to conclude the investigation and ensure justice, not empower the mutiny against it and enable those accused of involvement in the blast to cover up what happened and how explosive nitrates were stored in a civilian port to be used in their regional adventures. Such cheap deals that encourage impunity are a disgrace, a stain on the record of everyone involved, be it local or international players, no matter the justifications.

‘Hurricane Hazel’ McCallion, longtime mayor of Mississauga, Ont., dead at 101 Years Old
وفاة رئيسة بلدية مدينة ماسيسوكا السابقة هيزل ماكلين عن عمر 101 سنة
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115352/hurricane-hazel-mccallion-longtime-mayor-of-mississauga-ont-dead-at-101-%d9%88%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%a9-%d8%b1%d8%a4%d8%a6%d9%8a%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d9%84%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%86/
January 29/2023
Hazel McCallion, the pint-sized “Hurricane” who ruled Mississauga, Ont., as mayor for 12 terms and into her 94th year, has died. She was 101. Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced that McCallion died at home early Sunday morning. “Hazel was the true definition of a public servant,” Ford said in a statement announcing her death. “There isn’t a single person who met Hazel who didn’t leave in awe of her force of personality. I count myself incredibly lucky to have called Hazel my friend over these past many years.”In a statement, McCallion’s successor, Bonnie Crombie said, “Hazel was not only my mentor and political role model but the reason why so many women were inspired to enter politics.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a statement that he remembered the “unstoppable” McCallion.
“We will remember her as a trailblazer whose career in politics and service to her community will remain an inspiration to all of us. But mostly, we will remember her as a dear friend,” he said.
McCallion lost her first political race. But after that 1966 contest for deputy reeve, she would not be defeated in her next 17 electoral campaigns in the city that adjoins Toronto to the west.
As mayor of Mississauga from 1978 to 2014, she went unopposed twice and was not seriously threatened by rivals in nine other re-election bids. One hapless foe likened taking her on to “challenging somebody’s favourite grandmother.” He said that in 1985; she was not yet halfway into her tenure.
McCallion earned her nickname — after the Hurricane Hazel that battered southern Ontario in 1954 — soon after taking decisive action during an explosive train derailment in 1979. She embodied the moniker through the decades: strong, fearless and sometimes indiscriminate in her targets.
She was not the first female mayor of a large city, nor the first woman to lead a smaller region — Mayor Charlotte Whitton of Ottawa and Reeve Mary Fix of Toronto Township held top municipal roles — but Hazel became a first name in Canadian mayors irrespective of gender.
McCallion hated the term “feminist,” however, and described her approach in a male-dominated field in typically impolitic terms: “Think like a man, act like a lady and work like a dog.”
She set an agenda that saw all of Mississauga, not just land close to populated areas, open for business to developers. In turn, developers paid levies and helped provide libraries, arenas and community centres, but some critics dubbed her the “Queen of Sprawl” as a result. City coffers brimmed, and McCallion was able to burnish her reputation for running government like a business. At one point, Mississauga ratepayers went a decade without seeing a property tax increase. “I only spend the taxpayers’ money Iike I spend my own, which is seldom,” she said in 2014. “The people of Mississauga love that.” Toronto Mayor John Tory remembered McCallion for her “absolute” commitment to local government. “She didn’t hesitate to work with the federal and provincial governments to get things done for her city but she also spoke truth to power and held those same governments to account whenever she had to,” he said in a statement. “You always knew where you stood with Hazel.”
Retirement from politics did not silence Hurricane Hazel, as she made frequent public appearances, including for a 100th birthday party. In June 2016 she began a three-year term as the first chancellor of Sheridan College, a step in its bid to become a university.
“I never had the opportunity to go to college or university myself; it wasn’t financially possible,” McCallion told the Toronto Star. “But I really believe education is so important because the future of our Canadian economy is going to be brainpower.”
A senior public school, college campus, university learning centre, hospital wing and public library all bear her name in Mississauga.
Mississauga was the proverbial bedroom community when she took office, but since then its population has increased from 280,000 to 750,000 people. Canada’s seventh-largest city is also home to dozens of corporate headquarters.
McCallion’s career arc was forever changed when 25 cars of a Canadian Pacific Railway train derailed on Nov. 10, 1979, with propane explosions near the city centre sending flames high into the sky. She spearheaded a large-scale evacuation due to the threat of chlorine turning toxic in the atmosphere, and she pressed the rail company and federal government for answers and action.
McCallion was hailed as a hero in 2006 during a police standoff involving a distraught man who was threatening to kill himself. The five-hour standoff came to a peaceful end when McCallion appeared and demanded the man stand down so police, paramedics and fire personnel could attend to more important matters.
Hurricane Hazel thrived in the spotlight
She would thrive on being in the spotlight and on going to battle — whether it was with her own council, the federal government over developments at Toronto’s Pearson International Airport in the city, or the provincial government over transit funding. Former Ontario premier David Peterson admitted that she “scares the bejesus out of me.” McCallion scored points with her constituency this way, and Liberal, Conservative and NDP targets all felt her wrath at various points. “I could never toe the party line,” she told CBC’s As It Happens when asked why she never considered running provincially or federally. “I’d wear out the carpet crossing the floor.”
McCallion’s longevity was a testament to her prowess as a retail politician — she rarely missed a local shindig — and her control of council. But public apathy played a part, with just 21 to 34 per cent turning out to vote when she faced a challenger. And with so many nascent neighbourhoods, mobilization on issues was infrequent.
“We do not even see the embryo of a base or movement that could challenge the mayor on the way the city was being planned,” Tom Urbaniak says of an extended period in the 1990s, in his book Her Worship: Hazel McCallion and the Development of Mississauga.
The media glare wasn’t exactly withering, either. Mississauga is Canada’s largest city without a daily print newspaper, and Toronto media coverage was as likely to be focused on McCallion the indomitable personality as it was on the details of issues facing the city. Being in charge for 36 years, she committed some gaffes along the way, such as when she told the National Post in 2001, “If you go to the Credit Valley Hospital, the emergency is loaded with people in their native costumes.” She later insisted she was only complaining about non-citizens affecting queues.
Conflict-of-interest concerns
More serious were the conflict-of-interest probes.
McCallion failed to declare a conflict on a vote involving land that included a tract her family owned. It was ruled an error in judgment in July 1982, allowing her to stay in power.
Late in her civic career, McCallion participated in several meetings regarding plans for a convention centre involving a company in which her son Peter was a principal. She did declare a conflict in front of council, saving herself from dismissal through the narrow Municipal Conflict of Interest Act, the only punishment provided under the act.
But in 2011, a chief justice concluded in a 386-page report that her actions were improper, not transparent and in “real and apparent conflict of interest” according to common-law principles.
In addition to the ethical question marks, many believe Mississauga should have spent more years while the economy was healthy saving for a rainy day, as the city will face severe issues in the years ahead in funding transit and infrastructure improvements.
Regardless, McCallion was undoubtedly a political force as she entered her 10th decade.
“There’s a lot of luck and good genes involved when you live a long life, but feistiness plays a role, too,” she said.
Hazel Journeaux was born on Feb. 14, 1921, in Port Daniel, Que., a very small town in the Gaspé Peninsula. The youngest of five children developed a life-long passion for hockey and eventually landed in Montreal for education and her first professional jobs. With the engineering firm Canadian Kellogg, she moved to Toronto in her late 20s. She met Sam McCallion there through an Anglican association and they settled in Streetsville, beside the Township of Toronto. They raised three kids, and he ran printing and photography businesses as she became more engaged with municipal affairs in the 1960s.
As citizens went to the polls to vote for Streetsville’s mayor in 1969, a Mississauga Times headline described the race succinctly: “The Lady Against the Ex-Mayor.”
The lady won, and complained loudly of then-Tory premier Bill Davis’s plan in the early 1970s to merge Streetsville with Port Credit and the Toronto Township into the city of Mississauga.
It would later be suggested that she was much too canny politically to not know the union was inevitable and that her stance helped with visibility and voter support for future battles. She began serving on Mississauga’s city council in 1974 and became the unstoppable mayor four years later.
Sam McCallion would be a supportive partner for more than half her term. Alzheimer’s disease began to take its toll a few years before his 1997 death.
McCallion decided not to run in the 2014 election, and not surprisingly, the candidate she endorsed — Bonnie Crombie — prevailed.
She could well have won again had she run. One citizen expressed his feelings to the Mississauga News about the inquiry that dogged her late in her career, and he was hardly an outlier: “The credit rating here is triple-A and there’s never been any debt. I don’t care what they say she’s done, I’d still vote for her.”
Earlier this month, McCallion backed the Ford government’s proposed changes to the province’s Greenbelt from her position as chair of the Greenbelt Council, weighing in on “the recent storm” over the Ontario government’s plan to open up protected lands for housing development.
“If we are to meet the challenges of the epically growing human population of the GTA and provide truly livable and affordable communities, then we must allow for housing and new communities to be created where it makes sense to do so — where there is existing services and infrastructure, adjacent to existing development,” McCallion wrote in a Jan. 18 open letter.
That same day, Ontario’s integrity commissioner and auditor general announced separate investigations into the provincial decision.
According to the City of Mississauga, McCallion died at about 6:30 a.m. at home with her family.
McCallion is survived by sons, Peter and Paul, daughter Linda and a granddaughter.

Is Putin Destroying Russia?
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/January 29, 2023
If Putin succeeds in winning even a little territory, his victory will embolden other predators.
Retired British Army Colonel Richard Kemp describes Putin's plan as a "desperate gamble.... Moscow at present does not have the numbers to decisively overcome resistance from the depleted Ukrainian army". Putin nevertheless has the ability to turn Ukraine into a grease-spot, then take on Moldova, the Baltic States and whatever else he wants.
Putin knows that if he loses, it will be the end of his rule, maybe his life.... Russia is relying on its few allies and America's lack of will....
[Many...] seem not to understand that, as opposed to Las Vegas, "what happens in Ukraine does not stay in Ukraine." Even a partial win for Putin could end up costing America far more in the long run -- in both lives and treasure. It would have been so much easier to stop Hitler before he crossed the Rhine.
Western leaders, with the exception of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán... have reaffirmed that they will support Ukraine until it wins. Some, including Putin, spoke of negotiations; however, he warned that all his demands must be met and that he intends to fight until victory -- meaning that he will accept only unconditional surrender.
Western populations... grasp that to abandon Ukraine will lead to an even wider bloodbath.
Leaders in the West most likely see that without Putin's defeat, a return to stability in Europe is effectively impossible. To make the slightest concession to Putin would send all predators the message that they can invade a country, annex it in whole or in part, and commit war crimes to their hearts' content without any consequences.
Russia after this war will likely be a devastated country that has lost the last remnants of its status as a great power.
What is clear is that NATO will be strengthened, and fully emerge again as the defense structure of the democratic world.
European leaders who believed that the collapse of the Soviet Empire would lead to an era of perpetual peace, or who had illusions about Russia and Putin, or had largely given up their military spending, discovered the catastrophic extent of these illusions.
The United States -- if it does not lose its nerve and its will to protect the West -- will emerge as the big winner, but this should not overshadow the damage and destruction that the Biden administration – even though it has been extremely generous – caused by dithering and often providing materiel often too little, too late. If the US had pre-armed Ukraine, the invasion might actually have been prevented in the first place. Let us hope that the United States does not make the same costly mistake by failing adequately to pre-position "porcupine weaponry" in Taiwan to make the risk to China too great even to think about invading.
It would be dangerous to forget that without the weakness that the Biden administration exhibited toward China; without the disaster it inflicted on both the United States and Afghanistan; without Biden's suggestion that if Russia limited itself to a "small incursion", that would be fine, it was in effect green-lighting aggressors. If American soldiers in Ukraine had not withdrawn a few days before Russia's invasion, there probably would have been no invasion and no war.
It would also be dangerous to forget that during the first days of the invasion, U.S. President Joe Biden reportedly offered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky help to leave Ukraine. The message was that Biden was ready to abandon Ukraine to Putin. The Biden administration has so far not provided long-range strike capabilities or air cover to Ukraine, thereby giving sanctuary to the Russian military to fire into Ukraine or proceed with a scorched-earth aerial bombardment. The cost to innocent Ukrainian people will be countless lives lost -- and prolonging the war.
[T]he Biden administration and the rest of the Western world... finally [supported] Ukraine. For the future of the West and the Free World, the Biden Administration should continue to do exactly that.
Russian President Vladimir Putin knows that if he loses in Ukraine, it will be the end of his rule, maybe his life.
December 13, 2022. UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace tells the House of Commons that, since the start of the war in Ukraine, "over 100,000 Russians are either dead, injured, or have deserted". Today, the figure is undoubtedly higher. The losses to the Russian army have been such that on September 21, Putin decreed a mobilization. Tens of thousands of men were sent to ,military training. Thousands of others were immediately deployed to the front, with no training, no arms, or with only rusty guns, and sent to a certain death. Another mobilization seems to be in the works. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently said that the Russian army will soon number 1.5 million men, but whatever the number, if front-line soldiers do not have adequate equipment, they will be killed.
Russia's losses of military equipment were also considerable. In November, it was reported that Russia was estimated to have lost half its tanks. Western sanctions essentially prevent Russia from acquiring many of the microprocessors and electronic components needed to manufacture high-precision missiles. Russia may therefore be unable to replenish its stockpiles.
Although the Russian and Chinese militaries have carried out joint maneuvers, China has reportedly not delivered military equipment to Russia, and probably will not. China's economy is dependent on trade with the United States; Chinese leaders doubtless calculate that they too cannot afford to risk US sanctions. On December 30, during a virtual meeting, Putin proposed building a military alliance to Chinese President to Xi Jinping. Xi responded with a significant silence. Russia presently can only buy military equipment from two rogue states, North Korea and Iran, while the US "scrambles" to stop Iran from sending Russia still more deadly drones.
Since the beginning of September 2022, the Russian army has suffered two major defeats, one east of Kharkiv, the other in Kherson, in southern Ukraine. Russia so far has lost 39,000 square miles of the Ukrainian territory it had previously conquered and is now regrouping, building defensive lines to preserve what remains of the Ukrainian territory it still occupies, and reportedly planning for a spring offensive.
The Ukrainian army also lost countless soldiers and much military equipment; Ukrainian soldiers, however, are fighting for the survival and sovereignty of their country. Most Russian soldiers do not know why they are fighting. That makes a difference. The Ukrainian army does not have a problem of resupply and will not have one so long as the United States and the NATO countries continue to send materiel. If Putin succeeds in winning even a little territory, his victory will embolden other predators.
Retired British Army Colonel Richard Kemp describes Putin's plan as a "desperate gamble.... Moscow at present does not have the numbers to decisively overcome resistance from the depleted Ukrainian army". Putin nevertheless has the ability to turn Ukraine into a grease-spot, then take on Moldova, the Baltic States and whatever else he wants.
Putin knows that if he loses, it will be the end of his rule, maybe his life.
In June 2022, he compared himself to Peter the Great, a tsar who led wars of conquest against the neighboring countries of Russia and enlarged the Russian empire by violence. Putin, however, may also be concerned that he may well go down in history as the dictator who accelerated Russia's decline and led to its downfall.
A year ago, the Russian military was ranked by some as the world's second-most powerful. One can say now say that it is extremely deficient, "in a woeful state," equipped with poorly maintained weapons, plagued by a lack of financial means as well as by corruption. Russia's only advantage are thousands of nuclear warheads, many dating from the Soviet era. Russia is too poor to maintain a strong military (before the war, its GDP was smaller than that of Texas) -- a state of affairs that does not seem to have much chance of improving. Russia appears to be relying on its few allies and on America's lack of will -- last seen in its disorganized, impulsive withdrawal from Afghanistan and the chatter of many who seem not to understand that, as opposed to Las Vegas, "what happens in Ukraine does not stay in Ukraine." Even a partial win for Putin could end up costing America far more in the long run -- in both lives and treasure. It would have been so much easier to stop Hitler before he crossed the Rhine.
Russia also has other problems that make Putin's "desperate" fight even harder.
For several decades, Russia had been confronted with a serious birth deficit, increased aging and a decrease in its population. In 1991, Russia had 148 million inhabitants; in 2021, it had 143 million. Available data show that in 2022, Russia's already low birth rate fell even further. Thousands of young Russian men sent to their deaths in Ukraine will now not have children.
Russia is, in addition, experiencing a catastrophic loss of human capital. More than 3.8 million Russians left Russia during the first three months of 2022. The mobilization decreed by Putin in September of 2022 led to the flight of more than 700,000 men in three weeks. The Russians who left were mostly those with the means to flee and marketable skills. Russia has been suffering a "brain drain" unprecedented since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The Russian economy, which is not highly diversified, also is not strong. Russia lives mostly from the sale of energy. In 2021, gas and oil accounted for 60% of its exports; revenues from exported gas and oil accounted for 45% of its GDP. Until the war, European countries were the main buyers of Russian gas and oil. Since December 5, 2022, Russia no longer sells gas to European countries, with the exception of Hungary, and European countries no longer buy Russian oil. Although Russia has been selling more gas and oil to India and China, it is sold at discounts of 30-40% and does not begin to compensate for the loss of European markets. Russia's revenue losses in 2023 are again expected to be high. If Russia wants to increase its gas and oil sales to India and China, new pipelines will be necessary. Building them will be an expensive and long process.
Until its invasion of Ukraine, Russia was the word's main exporter of wheat. Russia's agriculture, however, depends on Western technological means, and Western sanctions have prevented Russia from acquiring them. Russian wheat production therefore will decline. The microprocessors and electronic components that the Russian arms manufacturers no longer have are also lacking in the car manufacturing and aeronautical sectors. Western automakers, like many other Western companies, have left Russia. Russian automakers are not faring well. Additionally, Russian airlines had to suspend many international routes, and to dismantle airplanes to recycle the parts for use in other aircraft. Although Russia had accumulated financial reserves, those outside Russia, in Western banks, are frozen.
Politically, at the moment, Russia, appears stable. As Putin has placed men loyal to him at the head of the military, chances of a coup seem remote. The oligarchs who criticize Putin have reportedly been undergoing an epidemic of fatal accidents; others seem to prefer losing billions to losing their lives. No one, of course, can predict what will happen. Will the Russian army indefinitely agree to send Russians to die in a meat grinder? Will Russia continue using mercenaries whose deaths do not affect the Russian public? Will Russia turn to unacceptable weapons?
Putin apparently hopes that by destroying civilian infrastructure and inflicting even harsher punishment on the Ukrainian people, he will break their morale and gain their submission. The Ukrainians, although suffering immensely, have been exhibiting breathtaking resilience.
Putin is probably betting that Western leaders and populations will eventually stop supporting Ukraine. So far at least, the West has stood strong.
Western leaders, with the exception of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán -- who decided to stay out of the conflict, a position that has been condemned as a betrayal by Hungary's Western allies -- have reaffirmed that they will support Ukraine until it wins. Some, including Putin, spoke of negotiations; however, he warned that all his demands must be met and that he intends to fight until victory -- meaning that he will accept only unconditional surrender.
Western populations who view the Russian army's atrocities grasp that to abandon Ukraine will lead to an even wider bloodbath.
Leaders in the West most likely see that without Putin's defeat, a return to stability in Europe is effectively impossible. To make the slightest concession to Putin would send all predators the message that they can invade a country, annex it in whole or in part, and commit war crimes to their hearts' content without any consequences.
It now seems as if Ukraine will finally be receiving the US M1 Abrams and German Leopard 2 tanks it needs, as well as tanks from the United Kingdom (France is apparently looking for excuses not to send its Leclerc tanks); yet Ukraine needs more.
The Telegraph's Defense and Foreign Affairs Editor, Con Coughlin, notes that "all the indications are that Putin is currently losing his war, and Western support can make sure he suffers a catastrophic defeat."
"When the war in Ukraine will end is unknown," noted Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, "but it will likely mark the dissolution of the Russian Federation (the legal successor of the Soviet Union) as it is known today."
Whether the dissolution of the Russian Federation takes place or not, Russia after this war will likely be a devastated country that has lost the last remnants of its status as a great power.
Russia's nuclear arsenal, the stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons at Russia's disposal, the persistent hostility towards the Western world by Russian propaganda to this day, will all require extreme vigilance.
What is clear is that NATO will be strengthened, and fully emerge again as the defense structure of the democratic world.
The European leaders who believed that the collapse of the Soviet Empire would lead to an era of perpetual peace, who had illusions about Russia and Putin, and who had largely given up their military spending, discovered the catastrophic extent of these illusions. Last year, they saw that without the existence of NATO and the power of the U.S. military, they would have faced a crushing hardship. Two European countries, Sweden and Finland, have asked to join NATO. When that happens, Russia will have an additional 1,340 kilometers of border with a NATO country, Finland.
It is not yet clear whether European countries such as France and Germany will learn the lessons of the war or whether they will fall back into their illusions. Moldova, Poland, the Baltic countries and Finland might end up having to bring them back to reality.
Ukraine will need to be rebuilt -- an effort that will be long and expensive, but essential. Many other cities have suffered significant damage. Most of the country's power stations have been attacked. The heroic Ukrainian people have suffered unimaginable losses. Finding the Ukrainian children who have been taken from their families and deported to Russia should be an imperative.
The United States -- if it does not lose its nerve and its will to protect the West -- will emerge as the big winner, but this should not overshadow the damage and destruction that the Biden administration – even though it has been extremely generous – caused by dithering and often providing materiel often too little, too late. If the US had pre-armed Ukraine, the invasion might actually have been prevented in the first place. Let us hope that the United States does not make the same costly mistake by failing adequately to pre-position "porcupine weaponry" in Taiwan to make the risk to China too great even to think about invading.
It would be dangerous to forget that without the weakness that the Biden administration exhibited toward China; without the disaster it inflicted on both the United States and Afghanistan; without Biden's suggestion that if Russia limited itself to a "small incursion", that would be fine, it was in effect green-lighting aggressors. If American soldiers in Ukraine had not withdrawn a few days before Russia's invasion, there probably would have been no invasion and no war.
It would also be dangerous to forget that during the first days of the invasion, U.S. President Joe Biden reportedly offered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky help to leave Ukraine. The message was that Biden was ready to abandon Ukraine to Putin. The Biden administration has so far not provided long-range strike capabilities or air cover to Ukraine, thereby giving sanctuary to the Russian military to fire into Ukraine or proceed with a scorched-earth aerial bombardment. The cost to innocent Ukrainian people will be countless lives lost -- and prolonging the war.
It would be particularly dangerous to forget that it was the failure of the Russian army in the first days of the invasion, the resistance of the army and the Ukrainian population, and the refusal of Zelensky to abandon his country, all of which essentially changed the situation and led the Biden administration and the rest of the Western world finally to support Ukraine. For the future of the West and the Free World, the Biden administration should continue to do exactly that.
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27 books on France and Europe.
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