English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 29/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
From everyone to whom much has been given, much will be required; and from one
to whom much has been entrusted, even more will be demanded
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke
12/42-48/:”The Lord said, ‘Who then is the faithful and prudent manager whom his
master will put in charge of his slaves, to give them their allowance of food at
the proper time? Blessed is that slave whom his master will find at work when he
arrives. Truly I tell you, he will put that one in charge of all his
possessions. But if that slave says to himself, “My master is delayed in
coming”, and if he begins to beat the other slaves, men and women, and to eat
and drink and get drunk, the master of that slave will come on a day when he
does not expect him and at an hour that he does not know, and will cut him in
pieces, and put him with the unfaithful. That slave who knew what his master
wanted, but did not prepare himself or do what was wanted, will receive a severe
beating. But one who did not know and did what deserved a beating will receive a
light beating. From everyone to whom much has been given, much will be required;
and from one to whom much has been entrusted, even more will be demanded.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 28-29/2023
UN Urges Maintaining Calm on Border Between Lebanon, Israel
Troops block roads to stop rival rallies in Beirut port blast case
Lebanese MPs denounce top prosecutor's moves against judge probing port blast
Families of port victims warn that calls for rival rallies are aimed at
'bloodshed'
Beirut Port Victims' Families deny any connection to circulated invitations to
gather outside Justice Palace: They aim to shed blood in the street
Activists rally at Justice Palace as army deploys between Shiyyah, Ain el-Remmaneh
MPs' parliament sit-in enters second week
Council of Ministers' General Secretariat clarifies news about placing
first-category employees at PM's disposal
Families of Beirut Port Victims: Purpose of previous statement was to block any
sedition attempt
Kaakour commends her colleagues' stances, says problem lies in political
authority's interference in the judiciary
Makary: We adhere to the best relations with the Arab countries & permanent
openness to the Arab world 8 minutes ago
Riachy: We will not elect a president who does not resemble us & will not act
contrary to our convictions
Hsheimi says no glimmer of hope exists on the horizon other than agreeing to
elect a president
Titles For The
Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 28-29/2023
Arab Countries Call for End to Escalation after Jerusalem Synagogue
Attack
Israeli police arrest dozens after deadly synagogue shooting
Palestinian teen wounds 2, day after 7 killed in Jerusalem
UN agency warns of record rates of hunger in Syria
‘The world should be worried’: Saudi Aramco — the world’s largest oil producer —
issued a dire warning over 'extremely low' capacity. Here are 3 big oil stocks
for protection
Congress to Enhance ‘Coordinated’ Sanctions Against Tehran
Rights Group: Iran Executed more than 50 People so far this Year
Iran protests: Woman, Life, Freedom inspires dance music album
3 charged in plot to assassinate activist Masih Alinejad, who is critical of
Iran regime
Three killed in Russian strike on east Ukraine city
Ukraine says Russia's putting inflatable tanks on the battlefield — but the
decoys deflated
Tanks for Ukraine, Turkey halts NATO negotiations, West Bank violence, AI
chatbots
Russia ‘Lied’ About Number Killed In New Year’s Eve Missile Strike, Says UK
US general warns of potential war with China: ‘My gut tells me we will fight in
2025’
A mummy unearthed in Egypt wrapped in 'layers of gold' may be the oldest ever
discovered, archeologists said
Russia faces new sanctions on its energy exports - but this time China and India
may not come to Putin's rescue
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 28-29/2023
Biden Administration's Total Disregard for Iran's Protestors, Nuclear
Threat/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/January 28, 2023
Iran’s IRGC is under the Western spotlight/Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/January
28/2023
End of the road for Syria’s opposition?/Dr. Haid Haid/Arab News/January 28, 2023
Europe and the US double down on support for Ukraine/Andrew Hammond/Arab
News/January 28, 2023
In absence of deterrents, Iran terror plots on Western soil will continue:
analysts/Ephrem Kossaify/Arab News/January 28, 2023
on January 28-29/2023
UN Urges Maintaining Calm on Border Between Lebanon, Israel
NNA/January 28, 2023
The United Nations has stressed on the importance of maintaining calm on the
border between Lebanon and Israel, Anadolu News Agency reported. This came in a
statement issued Thursday by the UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace
Operations, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, during a visit to Lebanon where he met a number
of Lebanese officials, including Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, Parliament
Speaker, Nabih Berri and Foreign Minister, Abdullah Bou Habib. In his statement,
Lacroix said he stressed, during the meetings with Lebanese officials, "the
importance of maintaining the existing calm along the 120-kilometre Blue Line,
to achieve lasting peace in the region". He also appreciated "Lebanon's
commitment to Security Council Resolution 1701, which forms the core of UNIFIL's
current mandate, and the public support the Mission has received in the
country". Last week, the border area between the two countries witnessed brief
tension after the Lebanese Army prevented an Israeli army bulldozer from
completing excavation work after breaching the "technical fence" that separates
Lebanon from Israel. The Blue Line is the line set by the United Nations for the
Israeli Forces' withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. Lebanon often accuses Israel of
violating its airspace and territorial waters, especially to bomb sites within
Syria. --- Anadolu Agency
Troops block roads to stop rival rallies in
Beirut port blast case
Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 28, 2023
BEIRUT: Lebanese army commandos were deployed on Saturday to block roads in
sensitive areas after calls for rival rallies in front of the Justice Palace in
Beirut circulated on social media. The first rally was announced by families of
the victims of the Beirut port blast to support investigating judge Tarek Bitar
and denounce his dismissal. A second protest was called by a group of victims’
relatives who broke away from the families’ movement after being pressured by
Hezbollah and the Amal Movement. Their march was to support prosecutor general
judge Ghassan Oueidat, who has brought charges against Bitar over his handling
of the inquiry. A security source told Arab News that “these proactive measures
aim to reassure people in anticipation of any attempt to destabilize security.”
On Oct. 14, 2021, the area witnessed bloody events reminiscent of Lebanon’s
civil war. Demonstrators supported by Hezbollah and the Amal Movement headed to
the Justice Palace to protest against Bitar, where clashes with a rival group
resulted in six deaths.
On Saturday, activists gathered in front of the Justice Palace, holding banners
demanding politicians stop interfering with the judiciary and calling for the
removal of Oueidat. They also demanded that the judicial formations decree be
signed and the legal provisions obstructing the investigation into the port
explosion be amended. Until now, no indictment has been issued, as Bitar was
removed from the case following complaints filed against him by politicians
charged in the case with “possible intentional killing” and “functional
negligence.”
Bitar on Monday resumed the investigation based on his legal interpretation,
following a 13-month halt over legal challenges raised by politicians accused in
the probe. He also charged more than a dozen senior political, judicial and
security officials, including Oueidat.
The recent developments have led to a standoff between the two judges, crippling
Lebanon’s judiciary, while the country’s cash-strapped institutions continue to
decay.
Families of the blast victims immediately issued a statement warning against
“calls aiming to cause violence and bloodshed in the streets.”
A legal source following up on the case of the victims’ families told Arab News
that these calls for protest aimed to create confrontation between the families,
“so we avoided falling into the trap.”Nizar Saghieh, Lebanese lawyer and
executive director of Legal Agenda, said: “Since the moment Bitar decided to
resume his work based on a legal study he conducted, he knew that he will be
confronting everyone. He decided to break his silence so he could issue his
indictment in the crime.”Saghieh said that it was weird how security authorities
threatened them with civil war whenever they wanted to hold any powerful figure
accountable. “We, the people, will remain victims if no one is held
accountable.”Saghieh added: “What is clear now is that judge Bitar is fighting
back. They accused Bitar of receiving directions from foreign embassies;
however, judge Oueidat was the one to release a US detainee. They accused Bitar
of not prosecuting any judge; however, he prosecuted four judges, including
judge Oueidat. All the accusations against Bitar have fallen. So what excuses
are they going to use to remove him from the case?”
On Wednesday, Oueidat ordered the release of all suspects detained in the
investigation into the blast and filed charges against Bitar. Among those
released by Oueidat was Beirut port head of security Mohammed Ziad Al-Ouf, a
dual-American Lebanese citizen who eventually left for the US.
Meanwhile, 41 opposition MPs released a statement on Friday denouncing Bitar’s
dismissal as lead investigator in the case. The statement is seen as a challenge
to Hezbollah and Amal, which support Bitar’s dismissal. The MPs rejected any
“prejudice to the prerogatives of the judicial investigator, by appointing any
substitute judge.” They also called for “the resumption of the investigation
from the point it reached, as well as a quick issuance of the indictment and its
referral to the Judicial Council.” MP Halima Kaakour said: “The problem is that
the political power is interfering with the judiciary, which leads to the
degradation of the judicial system, followed by a complete collapse of the
state.”Kaakour added: “Oueidat should be held accountable for his illegal
actions aiming to obliterate the investigation.”MP Bilal Abdallah defended
Oueidat, denouncing “any attack against him.” He said: “Iqlim El-Kharoub,
Oueidat’s hometown, will not remain silent against the attacks, accusations and
distrust to which he has been subjected.”
Lebanese MPs denounce top prosecutor's moves against judge
probing port blast
NNA/January 28, 2023
Some 40 Lebanese lawmakers on Friday became the latest group to back the judge
investigating the catastrophic 2020 Beirut port blast and call for the country's
top prosecutor to be held accountable for steps taken against the judge and his
probe. Judge Tarek Bitar on Monday resumed his probe into the blast that killed
more than 220 people after a 13-month suspension caused by legal wrangling and
high-level political pressure. He issued charges against senior security,
political and judicial officials, including top public prosecutor Ghassan
Oueidat. Though previously recused from the case due to a conflict of interest,
Oueidat filed charges against Bitar for allegedly mishandling the inquiry and
released the remaining 17 detainees still held over the investigation. The group
of lawmakers backing Bitar represents under a third of Lebanon's 128-member
legislature and includes independent MPs backed by civil society groups, the
Kataeb party and the Christian Lebanese Forces party. --- Reuters
Families of port victims warn that calls for rival rallies
are aimed at 'bloodshed'
Naharnet/January 28, 2023
The main grouping of the families of the Beirut port blast victims warned
Saturday that “there are invitations that are being distributed for rallying
today at 11am outside the Justice Palace in Beirut.”“Some of them are supportive
of (State Prosecutor) Ghassan Oueidat and some are in favor of his sacking,” the
families said in statement. “As families of victims, we warn that these
invitations are aimed, among other things, at causing violence and bloodshed on
the streets,” the families warned. They accordingly called on everyone to “be
vigilant and not be lured by those who are trying to drag us into strife,”
adding that supporters should exclusively heed protest calls issued by the
families of the victims.
Beirut Port Victims' Families deny any connection to
circulated invitations to gather outside Justice Palace: They aim to shed blood
in the street
NNA/January 28, 2023
The families of the Beirut Port victims confirmed in a statement today, that
they have nothing to do with the invitations circulated to gather at 11 o'clock
in front of the Palace of Justice in Beirut, some in favor of Judge Ghassan
Oweidat and some calling for his dismissal.
"It is important for us as the families of the victims to warn of these calls
that aim for causing violence and bloodshed in the streets," the statement said.
It concluded by urging "everyone to be vigilant and not to be drawn towards
those who try to drag us into strife," and to "follow up on the calls for action
that come exclusively from the families of the victims.
Activists rally at Justice Palace as army deploys between
Shiyyah, Ain el-Remmaneh
Naharnet/January 28, 2023
The army closed the entrances of the Shiyyah and Ain el-Remmaneh neighborhoods
and took strict security measures in the area on Saturday following calls for
rival rallies related to the Beirut port blast case.“The aim of the measures in
the vicinity of Tayyouneh is to stress that security is a red line and not to
sow panic among the people,” security sources told al-Jadeed TV.
The Shiyyah, Ain el-Remmaneh and Tayyouneh areas had witnessed deadly armed
clashes last year during a rally demanding the removal of Beirut port blast
investigator Judge Tarek Bitar. A few activists meanwhile staged a symbolic
sit-in outside the nearby Justice Palace to demand the sacking of State
Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oueidat following his latest controversial measures in
the port case, the National News Agency said. During the small sit-in, nine
women carried banners demanding an end to political interference in the
judiciary, the sacking of Oueidat, the signing of the judicial appointments
decree and the amendment of the legal articles that are obstructing the
probe.The main grouping of the families of the Beirut port blast victims
meanwhile distanced itself from the demos and warned that the calls for rival
rallies are “aimed, among other things, at causing violence and bloodshed on the
streets.”
MPs' parliament sit-in enters second week
Agence France Presse/January 28, 2023
MPs Najat Saliba and Melhem Khalaf have entered the second week of a sit-in
inside parliament's chamber, vowing to remain inside until fellow MPs elect a
new president. Saliba and Khalaf, both from the so-called Change bloc, began
their protest on January 19, after colleagues met and failed for an 11th time to
agree on a new president.Lebanon has been without a head of state since Michel
Aoun's mandate expired last year, with a caretaker cabinet overseeing the
responsibilities of government amid a financial collapse that is stretching into
its third year and this week saw the local currency reach a record low against
the U.S. dollar. "We are staying here, we won't be leaving" before a president
is elected, Saliba told AFP. "The state has completely collapsed... there is no
government, no financial system, and the judiciary is at war with itself," she
said, adding that the pair hoped their sit-in would empower parliament.
Her comments came days after the country's notoriously politicized justice
system appeared to descend into an internecine dispute over the devastating 2020
Beirut port blast after the lead investigator resumed work this week following a
13-month hiatus. The judicial battle adds to a crushing economic crisis that has
plunged much of Lebanon's population into poverty and is described by the World
Bank as one of the worst in modern history. Khalaf and Saliba, along with a
number of other reform candidates, were elected last year on the back of 2019
protests against the country's factional elite who have dominated Lebanon's
political scene since the 1975-1990 civil war. While they hope their protest
will break months of political paralysis, longtime parliamentary speaker Nabih
Berri has yet to call for a new legislative session since the sit-in began. A
source close to Berri told AFP that parliament has not yet met because no
breakthrough to the deadlock appears likely. "Let their own bloc decide on a
name first; they are themselves divided," the source said in a criticism of the
sit-in.Lawmakers supporting the powerful Hezbollah and those opposing the
Iran-backed group have been divided on Lebanon's next leader -- but neither side
has a clear majority. Decision-making in Lebanese politics can take months of
horse-trading between foreign-backed sectarian leaders, with Aoun's election in
2016 coming after more than two years without a president. The international
community has urged leaders to end the months of political paralysis and help
stem the financial meltdown.
Council of Ministers' General Secretariat clarifies news
about placing first-category employees at PM's disposal
NNA/January 28, 2023
The General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers denied, in an issued
statement this afternoon, the circulated news attributed to it regarding placing
state employees of first category at the disposal of the Prime Minister and that
no cabinet session will be held.
The statement clarified that such a decision requires a cabinet meeting and the
issuance of a decree in this regard in order to be effected, adding that it is
also in violation of the employees’ law.
Families of Beirut Port Victims: Purpose of previous
statement was to block any sedition attempt
NNA/January 28, 2023
The Association of Families of Victims of the Port Explosion issued a statement
this evening, clarifying that the purpose of its earlier statement today, in
which it warned against moves that might lead to fueling tension in the country
or being drawn into street chaos, was to block any sedition attempt of any kind.
However, the Association emphasized that it “highly appreciates the keenness of
the October 17 groups, the civil movement, the ‘N’ group, in addition to the
free and independent sovereign forces and all groups that have continued to
support the movements of the families of the port victims since the moment of
the fateful explosion, in confronting the nitrate system and its tools,
including politicians, security officials, administrators, and even some judges,
most recently being the discriminatory public prosecutor who transgresses his
jurisdiction and his position and powers as the first defender of rights and
society to the position of protector of tyrants and criminals.”
Kaakour commends her colleagues' stances, says problem lies
in political authority's interference in the judiciary
NNA/January 28, 2023
MP Halimé El Kaakour praised, in an issued statement today, the position of her
colleagues regarding the coup against the investigation into the Beirut Port
blast, the refusal to prejudice the judicial investigator, and the need to hold
the discriminatory public prosecutor accountable for his illegal steps aimed at
burying the investigation. "I affirm that the problem lies in the interference
of the political authority in the judiciary, leading to the dissolution of the
judicial system, as a consequence of the complete collapse of the state under
this system," she said. Kaakour concluded by reminding of the law on the
independence of the judiciary that was introduced in 2018, deeming that it
constitutes, away from the distortion it was subjected to and the amendments and
observations that emptied it of its content, a “prelude to building a state”.
Makary: We adhere to the best relations with the Arab
countries & permanent openness to the Arab world 8 minutes ago
NNA/January 28, 2023
Caretaker Minister of Information, Ziad al-Makary, considered that Marada
Movement Chief, Sleiman Franjieh’s election as president of the republic can
make a difference and that his work, starting from the North, can be inspiring.
He referred to four crucial matters at this stage, namely the demarcation of the
maritime borders, smuggling by land towards Syria, the file of the displaced and
its seriousness, in addition to the Shebaa Farms issue related to Hezbollah's
weapons. “Here it can be emphasized that what Sleiman Franjieh can do in this
field cannot be done by anyone else," Makary asserted, “in addition to the issue
of Arab relations, which Minister Franjieh adheres to, with the Arab
brethrens...”“We are committed to the best relations with the Arab countries and
ongoing openness to the Arab world," Makary affirmed. His words came during his
participation in a dialogue meeting at Al-Jinan University in Tripoli, in the
presence of MP Jamil Abboud, Chairman of the University's Board of Trustees, Dr.
Salem Yakan, and the University’s faculty and students’ bodies.
In his delivered word, Makary underlined "the importance of transmitting the
relationship and culture of communication between our regions.”“Today, we are
going through a very difficult stage, and there are complex economic, political,
social and security problems, and we say that despite everything, the north is
one of convergence and inherited diversity, which has become a duty to preserve
for our country,” he went on. “Based on my observations in state
administrations, politics, and government work, I see that nothing can save
Lebanon except the unity of its people,” Makary emphasized, adding that “there
are many things that we can and must agree on.”“Let our duty towards our
families, children, and neighbors remain to preserve this land, which is the
positivity that we need...,” he said.
“My message today is to preserve our country and show the positive image of
Beirut and Tripoli,” Makary reiterated.
Riachy: We will not elect a president who does not resemble
us & will not act contrary to our convictions
NNA/January 28, 2023
MP Melhem Riachy considered that despite the current difficult circumstances
endured by Lebanon and the Lebanese, what is important is that the people, as
individuals, remain fine, adding that “we must focus on what is greater than our
narrow differences.”
His words came during a meeting in Antelias with the heads of the northern Metn
centers in the "Lebanese Forces" Party. “Today we are engaged in the battle of
the presidency of the republic, and we may fight the battle of the
municipalities if the presidential file is concluded before May, and we have
many circumstances and democratic occasions for which we must prepare in order
to continuously be at the service of our society and Lebanon,” Riachy went on.
He added: “The dossier of the presidency of the republic is complicated, but at
the same time, things have begun to veer towards certain names that may be the
solution to the dilemma of the presidency.”“The battle of names has not been
decided yet, but what is certain is that we will not elect a president who does
not resemble us, and we will not act contrary to our convictions,” Riachy
underscored.
Hsheimi says no glimmer of hope exists on the horizon other
than agreeing to elect a president
NNA/January 28, 2023
“There is no glimmer of hope on the horizon except for consensus on electing a
president, otherwise Lebanon will be dissolved," deemed MP Bilal Al-Hsheimi in
an issued statement this evening. Referring to the numerous pending issues at
stake that require immediate solutions, he said: “From which dossier do we start
and about which failure do we first talk...?” He wondered about the constant
insistence on keeping those who have failed in their positions instead of
replacing them with more efficient figures who can better serve the country and
the people. “There is no glimmer of hope on the horizon except through consensus
and effort to fill the presidential vacuum and elect a president capable of
resolving the closed doors of crises,” he reiterated.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 28-29/2023
Arab Countries Call for End to Escalation after Jerusalem Synagogue Attack
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 28 January, 2023
Arab countries condemned on Saturday the attack outside a synagogue in Jerusalem
that left seven people dead.
They stressed the need to end the escalation between Israel and the
Palestinians. Official spokesman of Jordan’s foreign ministry Sinan al-Majalyi
said the kingdom condemns the attack against civilians at the synagogue and all
forms of violence against civilians in the occupied Palestinian territories. It
stresses the need to take “immediate and effective steps that would end the
dangerous escalation that has left Palestinian and Israeli casualties,” he
added. He warned that the continuation of the violence would lead to dire
consequences. He urged the need for calm and an end to “all unilateral and
provocative measures that only fuel escalation and tensions.”Furthermore, the
spokesman underlined the need to “halt the dangerous escalation that feed
despair and extremism.”Rather, efforts are “needed to restore faith in the peace
process through the resumption of serious and effective negotiations aimed at
achieving fair and comprehensive peace based on the two-state solution.”The
United Arab Emirates’ foreign ministry condemned Friday's “terrorist attack” on
the synagogue, slamming “these criminal acts and underscoring its constant
rejection of all forms of violence and terrorism that seek to undermine security
and stability and contradict with human values and principles.” It offered its
condolences to the Israeli government and its friendly people and the relatives
of the victims. Egypt expressed its “strong condemnation and rejection of the
attack” in East Jerusalem, saying it denounces all operations targeting
civilians. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry warned of the “extreme dangers” of the
ongoing escalation between the Palestinians and Israelis, urging “maximum
restraint” and an end to attacks and provocative measures in order “to avoid
sliding into a new empty cycle of violence.”Such violence will only deepen the
political and humanitarian crisis and undermine all efforts to revive the peace
process, it warned. A Palestinian gunman shot dead seven people near a synagogue
on the outskirts of Jerusalem on Friday. Israeli police said that the gunman
attack was a 21-year-old Palestinian resident of East Jerusalem who appeared to
have acted alone in carrying out the attack in an area that Israel annexed to
Jerusalem after the 1967 Middle East war. On Saturday, the Israeli ambulance
service said two people were hurt in what appeared to be another shooting
attack. The attack underlined fears of an escalation in violence after months of
clashes in the West Bank culminating in a raid in Jenin on Thursday that killed
at least nine Palestinians. The outbreak of violence is the first major
confrontation since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took office last
month at the head of a government that includes hardline nationalist parties.
Earlier on Friday, fighters in Gaza fired rockets at Israel, causing no
casualties but drawing air strikes by Israeli jets, which struck targets in the
blockaded coastal strip controlled by Hamas.
Israeli police arrest dozens after deadly
synagogue shooting
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 28 January, 2023
Israel police said Saturday they arrested dozens of people after a Palestinian
gunman killed seven people outside a synagogue in one of the deadliest attacks
in Jerusalem in years. Police identified the gunman as a 21-year-old resident of
east Jerusalem, the sector of the city annexed by Israel after the 1967 Six-Day
War.There has been no indication that he had prior involvement in militant
activity or was a member of an established Palestinian armed group. He was
killed by police following a brief chase after the shooting.In a statement,
Israeli police said they had arrested "42 people for questioning" overnight,
"some of them members of the terrorist's family."Others detained included
residents of the gunman's neighborhood, police said. In a separate statement,
police said the force had been placed on the "highest level" of alert following
the attack in Neve Yaakov neighborhood of east Jerusalem.
Israel's police chief Kobi Shabtai called the shooting "one of the worst attacks
(Israel) has encountered in recent years."
Palestinian teen wounds 2, day after 7 killed
in Jerusalem
Isabel Debre, The Associated Press/JERUSALEM/January 28, 2023
A 13-year-old Palestinian attacker opened fire in east Jerusalem on Saturday,
wounding two people, officials said, a day after another assailant killed seven
outside a synagogue in the deadliest attack in the city since 2008. The shooting
in the Palestinian neighborhood of Silwan in east Jerusalem, near the historic
Old City, wounded a father and son, ages 47 and 23, paramedics said. Both were
fully conscious and in moderate to serious condition in the hospital, the medics
added. As police rushed to the scene, two passers-by with licensed weapons shot
and overpowered the 13-year-old attacker, police said. Police confiscated his
handgun and took the wounded teen to a hospital. Video showed police escorting a
wounded young man, wearing nothing but underwear, away from the scene and onto a
stretcher, his hands cuffed behind his back. Authorities taped off the street,
emergency vehicles and security forces swarmed the area and helicopters whirled
overhead. “He waited to ambush civilians on the holy Sabbath day,” Israeli
police spokesman Dean Elsdunne told The Associated Press, adding that the
teenager opened fire on a group of five civilians. Security footage showed the
victims to be observant Jews, wearing skullcaps and tzitzit, or knotted ritual
tassles.
Elsdunne described a “significant rise” in the level of Palestinian militant
activity in recent days. “The Israeli police are going to act accordingly,” he
said. Saturday's events — on the eve of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's
arrival in the region — raised the possibility of even greater conflagration in
one of the bloodiest months in Israel and the occupied West Bank in several
years. On Friday, a Palestinian gunman killed at least seven people, including a
70-year-old woman, in a Jewish settlement in east Jerusalem, an area captured by
Israel in 1967 and later annexed in a move not internationally recognized.
The attacks pose pivotal test for Israel’s new far-right government. Its
firebrand minister of national security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has presented himself
as an enforcer of law and order and grabbed headlines for his promises to take
even stronger action against the Palestinians.
The Israeli army said it had deployed another battalion to the West Bank on
Saturday, adding hundreds more troops to a presence already on heightened alert
in the occupied territory. In the Jenin refugee camp, the site of a deadly
Israeli military raid on Thursday that fueled the latest escalation, footage
showed Palestinians dancing and cheering in celebration of the shooting on
Saturday. Palestinian detainees who celebrated in prison after Friday's attack
were placed in solitary confinement, the Israeli prison service said.
Prime Minister Benjamin said he would convene his Security Cabinet later, after
the Sabbath, which ends at sundown, to discuss a further response to the attack
near the synagogue. Security forces launched a crackdown in east Jerusalem,
fanning out into the neighborhood of the 21-year-old Palestinian gunman, who was
shot and killed at the scene. Police arrested 42 of his family members and
neighbors for questioning in the At-Tur neighborhood. Police Chief Kobi Shabtai
permanently moved a force analogous to a S.W.A.T. team in the city and beefed up
forces, instructing police to work 12-hour shifts. He urged the public to call a
hotline if they see anything suspicious. The earlier Friday attack came a day
after an Israeli military raid killed nine Palestinians in the flashpoint Jenin
refugee camp in the West Bank that prompted a rocket barrage from Gaza and
retaliatory Israeli airstrikes.
Although calm had appeared to take hold after the limited exchange of fire
between Israel and Gaza militants, tensions were running high in Jerusalem and
the West Bank. Thursday's raid, deadliest single incursion in the West Bank
since 2002, followed a particularly bloody month that saw at least 30
Palestinians — militants and civilians — killed in in confrontations with
Israelis in the West Bank, according to a tally by the AP. Last year, as the
Israeli military intensified its arrest raids following a string of deadly
Palestinian attacks within Israel, at least 150 Palestinians were killed in the
occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem. It was the highest annual death toll for
more than a decade and a half. Thirty people were killed in Palestinian attacks
against Israelis last year. Israel says most of the dead were militants. But
youths protesting the incursions and others not involved in the confrontations
also have been killed.
The Israeli military contends its raids are meant to dismantle militant networks
and thwart attacks. But Palestinians say they further entrench Israel’s 55-year,
open-ended occupation of the West Bank, captured along with east Jerusalem and
the Gaza Strip in the 1967 Mideast war. The Palestinians demand east Jerusalem
as the capital of a future independent state, and much of the world considers it
illegally occupied. Israel claims as its united, sovereign capital. Home to the
shrines of all three major monotheistic religions, the contested capital been
the centerpiece of spiking tensions between Israelis and Palestinians for years.
Both Palestinian attackers behind the shootings on Friday and Saturday came from
east Jerusalem. Palestinian residents of east Jerusalem hold permanent residency
status, allowing them to work and move freely throughout Israel, but they are
not allowed to vote in national elections. Residency rights can be stripped if a
Palestinian is found to live outside the city for an extended period or in
certain security cases. Although their standard of living is generally better
than in the West Bank and Gaza, Palestinian residents of the city receive a
fraction of the services that Jewish residents do. They also complain of home
demolitions and the near impossibility of obtaining Israeli building permits.
UN agency warns of record rates of hunger in
Syria
AFP/January 29, 2023
BEIRUT: The World Food Programme has warned that hunger rates in Syria have
soared to record highs after more than a decade of devastating conflict. A
brutal war that triggered years of economic crisis and damaged vital
infrastructure has put 2.9 million at risk of sliding into hunger, while another
12 million do not know where their next meal is coming from, the UN agency said.
“Hunger soars to 12-year high in Syria,” as 70 percent of the population might
soon be “unable to put food on the table for their families,” the statement
said. “Syria now has the sixth highest number of food insecure people in the
world,” the WFP added, with food prices increasing nearly 12-fold in three
years.Child and maternal malnutrition are also “increasing at a speed never seen
before,” in more than a decade of war. If the international community does not
step up to help Syrians, it risks facing “another wave of mass migration,” said
WFP Executive Director David Beasley during a visit to Syria this week. “Is that
what the international community wants?” he asked, urging donor countries to
redouble efforts to “avert this looming catastrophe.”The UN estimates 90 percent
of the 18 million people in Syri are living in poverty, with the economy hit by
conflict, drought, cholera and the Covid pandemic as well as the fallout from
the financial crash in neighbouring Lebanon. The conflict in Syria started with
the brutal repression of peaceful protests. About half a million people have
been killed, and the conflict has forced around half of the country’s pre-war
population from their homes. Syria’s Foreign Ministry said on Saturday that a
report by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons that found
the regime was responsible for a chemical weapon attack on the city of Douma in
2018 lacked any evidence, and denied the allegations. The global chemical
weapons watchdog said on Friday a nearly two-year investigation had found that
at least one Syrian military helicopter had dropped gas cylinders onto
residential buildings in Douma, killing 43 people. Investigators said there were
“reasonable grounds to believe” that at least one Syrian air force helicopter
had dropped two cylinders of the toxic gas on the rebel-held town of Douma
during Syria’s civil war. “The world now knows the facts,” said Fernando Arias,
chief of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons or OPCW. “It
is up to the international community to take action,” Arias said in a statement.
Damascus and its ally Moscow claimed the April 7, 2018 attack was staged by
rescue workers at the behest of the US which afterwards launched airstrikes on
Syria along with Britain and France. The Douma case also caused controversy
after leaks from two former employees accused the Hague-based watchdog of
altering its original findings to make them sound more convincing. But the OPCW
said its investigators had “considered a range of possible scenarios” and
concluded that “the Syrian Arab Air Forces are the perpetrators of this
attack.”Western powers together called on Syria to be held accountable over the
“horrific” attack. “We call on the Russian Federation to stop shielding Syria
from accountability for its use of chemical weapons,” said a joint statement by
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterparts from Britain, France
and Germany. “No amount of disinformation from the Kremlin can hide its hand in
abetting the Assad regime.”
‘The world should be worried’: Saudi Aramco — the world’s
largest oil producer — issued a dire warning over 'extremely low' capacity. Here
are 3 big oil stocks for protection
Jing Pan/MoneyWise/Sat, January 28, 2023
The global oil market remains tight according to Saudi Aramco, the largest oil
producer in the world. And that does not bode well for a world that still relies
heavily on fossil fuels. “Today there is spare capacity that is extremely low,”
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said at a recent conference in London. “If China
opens up, [the] economy starts improving or the aviation industry starts asking
for more jet fuel, you will erode this spare capacity.” Nasser warns that oil
prices could quickly spike — again. “When you erode that spare capacity the
world should be worried. There will be no space for any hiccup — any
interruption, any unforeseen events anywhere around the world.” If you share
Nasser’s view, here are three oil stocks to bet on. Wall Street also sees upside
in this trio.
Shell
Headquartered in London, Shell (NYSE:SHEL) is a multinational energy giant with
operations in more than 70 countries. It produces around 3.2 barrels of oil
equivalent per day, has an interest in 10 refineries, and sold 64.2 million tons
of liquefied natural gas in 2021.
It’s a staple for global investors, too. Shell is listed on the London Stock
Exchange, Euronext Amsterdam, and the New York Stock Exchange. The company’s
NYSE-listed shares are up 13% over the last year. Piper Sandler analyst Ryan
Todd sees an opportunity in the oil and gas supermajor. The analyst has an
‘overweight’ rating on Shell and a price target of $70. Considering that Shell
trades at around $57 per share today, Todd’s new price target implies a
potential upside of 23%.
Chevron
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is another oil and gas supermajor that’s benefiting from the
commodity boom. For Q3, the company reported earnings of $11.2 billion, which
represented an 84% increase from the same period last year. Sales and other
operating revenues totaled $64 billion for the quarter, up 49% year over
year.Last January, Chevron’s board approved a 6% increase to the quarterly
dividend rate to $1.42 per share. That gives the company an annual dividend
yield of 3.2%. The stock has enjoyed a nice rally too, climbing 34% over the
last year. Earlier this month, Barclays analyst Jeanine Wai reiterated an
‘overweight’ rating on Chevron while raising the price target from $196 to $212.
That implies a potential upside of 18% from the current levels.
Exxon Mobil
Commanding a market cap of over $460 billion, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is bigger
than Shell and Chevron. The company also boasts the strongest stock price
performance among the three in 2022 — Exxon shares are up 54% over the last
year. It’s not hard to see why investors like the stock: the oil-producing giant
gushes profits and cash flow in this commodity price environment. In the first
nine months of 2022, Exxon earned $43.0 billion in profits, a huge increase from
the $14.2 billion in the year-ago period. Free cash flow totaled $49.8 billion
for the first nine months, compared to $22.9 billion in the same period last
year. Solid financials allow the company to return cash to investors. Exxon pays
quarterly dividends of 91 cents per share, translating to an annual yield of
3.2%. Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne has a ‘buy’ rating on Exxon and a price
target of $133 — around 16% above where the stock sits today.
Congress to Enhance ‘Coordinated’ Sanctions
Against Tehran
Washington - Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 28 January, 2023
Democrat and Republican senators put forward this week a resolution calling for
strengthening US sanctions against Tehran. Sponsored by 33 Senate colleagues,
the bipartisan resolution urges the Biden administration to strengthen
international efforts to impose additional sanctions on officials and entities
responsible for the violent suppression of demonstrations in Iran. It also
underscores the importance of the US government and private sector providing
additional support for access to digital communications and internet freedom in
Iran so that Iranian citizens have the tools necessary to communicate with the
world and each other. “I am proud to be joined by my colleagues in reintroducing
this bipartisan resolution commending the bravery of these Iranian protesters
who have stood their ground against the Iranian regime for more than 130 days
and counting,” said Bob Menendez, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee. He praised the recent steps taken by the international community to
impose coordinated sanctions, isolate Iran from international fora, and provide
Iranians with the technology they need to circumvent the regime’s censorship.
“These are exactly the kind of actions this resolution supports,” Menendez said.
Jim Risch, Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, spoke about
the importance of tightening US sanctions on Tehran in several fields, in
addition to addressing Iran’s dangerous collusions with Russia. “The Biden
Administration should step up efforts on helping to end the regime’s systematic
persecution of women and holding human rights violators in Iran to account,” he
stated. For her part, Senator Marsha Blackburn supported Risch’s approach,
strongly urging the Biden administration to impose additional human rights
sanctions on the Iranian government and prioritize efforts to ensure
unrestricted internet access in Iran. “It’s important that we send Iran and the
rest of the world a clear message: The United States is watching and will not
tolerate this egregious suppression of freedom,” she said. This came few days
after the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved a bipartisan
resolution expressing support for Iranian protesters and condemning the
government crackdown. The resolution, which passed 420 votes to one, was the
first to be presented in the House after its new session. It reveals that the
Iranian file enjoys great consensus among Democrats and Republicans. Commenting
on the resolution, Congresswoman Claudia Tenney said the House reaffirmed with
one voice its commitment to support these brave Iranian protestors, who are more
resolved than ever to fight the regime in Tehran.
Rights Group: Iran Executed more than 50 People so far this
Year
Paris - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 28 January, 2023
Iranian authorities have executed 55 people in 2023, Norway-based Iran Human
Rights (IHR) said Friday, adding that the surging use of the death penalty aims
to create fear as protests shake the country. IHR said it has confirmed at least
55 executions in the first 26 days of this year.
Four people have been executed on charges related to the protests, while the
majority of those hanged -- 37 convicts -- were executed for drug-related
offences, IHR said. At least 107 people are still at risk of execution over the
demonstrations after being sentenced to death or charged with capital crimes,
the group added. With Iran's use of the death penalty surging in recent years,
IHR argued that "every execution by the Islamic Republic is political" as the
main purpose "is to create societal fear and terror". "To stop the state
execution machine, no execution should be tolerated, whether they be political
or non-political," AFP quoted IHR director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam as saying. He
added that a lack of reaction from the international community risked lowering
"the political cost of executing protesters". Activists have accused Iran of
using the death penalty as an instrument of intimidation to quell the protests
which erupted in September following the death of the Mahsa Amini, 22, who had
been arrested for allegedly violating the country's dress code for women. UN
rights chief Volker Turk has said Iran's "weaponization of criminal procedures"
to punish demonstrators "amounts to state-sanctioned killing". IHR and other
rights groups have yet to publish figures on executions in Iran for 2022. But
IHR said in early December that more than 500 people had been hanged by then --
the highest figure in five years -- while according to its data, at least 333
people were executed in 2021, a 25 percent increase compared to 267 in 2020. As
well as arresting thousands of people, Iranian security forces have also used
what campaigners describe as lethal force to crack down on the protests. IHR
said that according to its latest count, security forces have killed at least
488 people, including 64 aged under 18, in the nationwide protests. Of the 64
children, 10 were girls, it added. Mohsen Shekari, 23, was executed in Tehran on
December 8 for wounding a member of the security forces, while Majidreza
Rahnavard, also 23, was hanged in public in Mashhad on December 12 on charges of
killing two members of the security forces with a knife. On January 7, Iran
executed Mohammad Mehdi Karami and Seyed Mohammad Hosseini for killing a
paramilitary force member in November. In another high-profile execution, Iran
said on January 14 that it had executed British-Iranian dual national Alireza
Akbari after he was sentenced to death on charges of spying for Britain. He had
been arrested more than two years earlier. Analysts say demonstrations have
subsided since November, but the protest movement still remains a challenge to
the regime.
Iran protests: Woman, Life, Freedom inspires dance music
album
Megan Lawton & Tom Richardson - Newsbeat reporters
BBC/Sat, January 28, 2023 at 3:22 a.m. EST
You're at an underground rave. The location's a secret to everyone except the
hundreds of people crammed inside. All around you, people are dancing. The music
is loud and the vibes are good. But in Iran, raves aren't just a night out.
They're an act of defiance. A wave of protests has swept the country since
September, when 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in police custody. Demonstrators -
many of them women - want to get rid of Iran's strict religious leaders and
rules that limit what they can wear or do in public. In response, the government
has been cracking down on protests. Hundreds have been jailed. Some say they've
been tortured for confessions and others have been sentenced to death. The
penalties for speaking out can be harsh, but Iranians are still finding ways to
oppose the current system. And one of those is dance music.
'A huge risk'
"You would basically think that you are in a warehouse in Europe or in the US
somewhere when you go into these underground parties," says Aida.
"Because nothing really looks different.
"But it's a huge risk for the people who attend, the people who organise and the
DJs."
Aida, 30, is a DJ and music producer who was born in Iran and relocated to
Canada aged 12. She still has relatives and friends in the country, and watching
from afar made her want to do something to help. So Aida has teamed up with
fellow DJ Nesa Azadikhah to produce Woman, Life, Freedom - an electronic
compilation by a group of female Iranian women, producers and musicians. They
hope the album will raise awareness of the protest movement back home, and plan
to donate the money it makes to organisations helping women in Iran.
Iran country profile
Nesa left Iran, where she was born and raised, five months ago to tour Europe.
She has organised public events back home, but they couldn't be too lively as
dancing is regarding as an illegal, indecent act. Nesa and Aida explain that
smaller-scale shows involving ambient music and visuals are permitted as a
"cultural experience".But both say dancing is a symbol of freedom for them.
Nesa's first experience of going into a club was a feeling of being "without
stress, with peace and freely listening". "It's a really emotional experience
because it's something we really don't have in Iran," says Nesa. "But at parties
I feel that way all the time. "I wish that this could be possible and that this
could happen over there." Aida agrees: "When I go to clubs, and when I'm playing
in clubs, and I'm thinking about Iran, it's also a similar feeling."
'A better future'
Both Aida and Nesa expect their compilation will be heard in Iran and might even
soundtrack an underground event. "It will be listened to back home.
"There is dancing and there is life as we know it happening underground in Iran.
And so maybe not publicly, but these things do happen," says Aida. But they also
want it to make others feel the same way Nesa did on that first visit to a club.
"It's also this sense of hope for a better future and hoping that this can
change over there," says Aida. "That the sheer amount of talented people in Iran
can freely really show their talent and explore their passion. "The same as we
can out here and not have to run into these issues, not have to risk their
lives, not have to sacrifice their performances because of these restrictions
and rules that exist."
3 charged in plot to assassinate activist Masih Alinejad,
who is critical of Iran regime
Kevin Johnson, USA TODAY/January 27, 2023
WASHINGTON – Three members of an Eastern European criminal gang have been
charged in a murder for hire plot with links to Iran targeting an
Iranian-American human rights activist who has been a vocal opponent of the
Iranian regime. Since July, FBI Director Christopher Wray said the criminal
group had been planning the assassination of New York-based journalist and
activist Masih Alinejad, who just two years ago had been the target of a foiled
kidnapping attempt linked to Iranian intelligence operatives. Federal
authorities did not identify Alinejad in court documents unsealed Friday, but
referenced the 2021 case in which authorities disrupted the separate kidnapping
plot. Shortly after the charges were unsealed in Manhattan, Alinejad, who has
repeatedly called out Iran’s human rights abuses and suppression of political
expression, acknowledged that federal authorities had briefed her on the case.
"I just learned from 12 FBI agents that the 3 men hired by the Iranian regime to
kill me on US soil have been indicted," Alinejad tweeted. "The Islamic
Revolutionary Guards have been conducting these terrorist operations for four
decades. Islamic Republic is ISIS with oil."
Rafat Amirov, 43, of Iran; Polad Omarov, 38, of the Czech Republic and Slovenia;
and Khalid Mehdiyev, 24, of Yonkers, New York, were indicted on both money
laundering and murder-for-hire charges. Amirov and Mehdiyev are in U.S. custody,
while the federal authorities were seeking Omarov's extradition from the Czech
Republic. Neither Wray nor Attorney General Merrick Garland would comment on how
federal authorities took custody of Amirov, the Iranian national. Authorities
said only that Amirov, described as the leader of the criminal group, had
arrived in Manhattan Thursday to face the federal charges. According to court
documents, Amirov sent targeting information in July identifying Alinejad and
her residence to Omarov who provided the information to the group's New
York-based associate, Mehdiyev. The contacts allegedly launched surveillance of
Alinejad and "reconnaissance" of her home and neighborhood
Mehdiyev sent photographs and videos of the victim’s residence to Omarov for
further sharing with Amirov and the plot’s orchestrators in Iran," according to
court documents. Amirov and Omarov arranged to pay Mehdiyev $30,000 to carry out
the attack, while Mehdiyev obtained an AK-47-style assault rifle. Mehdiyev's
role in the attack was discovered when he was arrested in July near Alinejad's
Brooklyn home with the rifle bearing an obliterated serial number. "Mehdiyev, at
the direction of Amirov and Omarov, was preparing imminently to execute the
attack on the victim," court documents stated.
"On the day he was arrested, Mehdiyev sent Omarov a video recording from inside
his car, with a caption stating, 'we are ready,'" Attorney General Merrick
Garland said, announcing the enforcement action. "In the video, Mehdiyev pulled
open the flap of a suitcase displaying the assault rifle. Omarov then forwarded
the video to Amirov, who replied that Mehdiyev should 'keep the car clean,'" the
attorney general said. "The victim in this case was targeted for exercising the
rights to which every American citizen is entitled," Garland said. "This
activity posed such a threat to the government of Iran that the chief judge of
Iran's Revolutionary Courts warned that anyone who sent videos to the victim
criticizing the regime would be sentenced to prison – especially videos contrary
to criminal laws mandating that women and girls wear head coverings in public."
*This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 3 charged in Iran assassination
plot targeting activist Masih Alinejad
Three killed in Russian strike on east Ukraine city
Reuters/January 28, 2023
A Russian strike killed three people in a residential district of the eastern
Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka on Saturday, the regional governor said.
Fourteen other people were wounded in the attack, which also damaged four
apartment buildings and a hotel, Donetsk governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said.
"Rescuers and law enforcement officials are working at the scene of the tragedy
to help people and carefully document yet another crime by the Russian occupiers
on our land," he wrote on Telegram. Twisted metal and the charred remains of
household items and at least one car lay scattered across the courtyard as
rescuers worked to clear the rubble. Fresh bloodstains were also visible.
Factory worker Iryna Maltseva, 42, said she was watching television when the
explosion violently rattled her living room. "I opened my eyes and everything
was blown out," she said. "I was covered in blood. Mom was sitting in the
bedroom, also covered in blood."Earlier on Saturday, Kyrylenko said at least
four people had been killed and seven wounded throughout the region from Russian
strikes over the past 24 hours. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday the
situation at the front remained "extremely acute", particularly in the Donetsk
region where Russia is stepping up an offensive. Moscow invaded Ukraine last
February but in recent weeks fighting has slowed to an attritional battle with
neither side making significant gains. Kyiv has repeatedly warned that Russian
forces would attempt to mount another offensive sometime in the coming weeks or
months. (Reporting by Ivan Lyubysh-Kirdey and Dan Peleschuk; Writing by Dan
Peleschuk Editing by Alison Williams and Angus MacSwan)
Ukraine says Russia's putting inflatable tanks on the battlefield — but the
decoys deflated
Business Insider/Erin Snodgrass/January 28, 2023
Ukraine accused Russia of staging inflatable tanks near Zaporizhzhia in a
Thursday Facebook post.
But the Russian decoys unintentionally deflated, according to Ukrainian
officials.
Russia has employed deceptive warfare for decades, but its recent efforts
apparently fizzled.
Ukrainian military forces accused the Russian army of deploying inflatable tanks
in the south of Ukraine in an effort to deceive the opposing side, saying the
country's "rubber" decoys had deflated in an anticlimactic display. The General
Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a Thursday Facebook post said Russia's
army had run out of steam in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Russian troops have
been incessantly firing on Ukrainian defenses in recent days, according to the
Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration. "At the time when our partners
are coordinating the supply of tanks to Ukraine, the invading army is also
increasing the presence of 'tank units' in the Zaporizhzhia area," the General
Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine wrote. But Russia's multiplying tanks are,
according to Ukrainian officials, not what they seem. "Apparently, the free air
of the Cossack region is not suitable for the 'rubber' products of the
occupiers, so they deflate without fulfilling their main mission. Just like the
inflated bravado of the Russian army," the agency said. Inflatable tanks are a
staple of Russia's deception doctrine known as maskirovka, or masking. The
country's approach to psychological warfare relies on an arsenal of inflatable
tanks and launchers, decoy vehicles and soldiers, and other operations of deceit
to boost stealth tactics and sow confusion. Russia has utilized elements of
maskirovka in conflicts going back decades, but their most recent efforts in
Ukraine apparently fizzled, Ukraine claims. It was not clear for what purpose
Russia allegedly staged the inflatable tanks near Zaporizhzhia. Earlier in the
war, Ukraine also produced false weaponry, using fake rocket launchers made of
wood to entice Russia to waste missiles on useless targets. The wooden decoys
were meant to look like US rocket launchers when spotted by Russian drones,
prompting Russian cruise missile carriers in the Black Sea to fire on the false
targets, according to August reports. Deception as warfare has a long history.
The US also utilized inflatable tanks in World War II as part of its Ghost Army
operation in an effort to trick the Third Reich into overestimating the Allied
forces' military strength. The unit created illusions and sought to spread
disinformation by using inflatable mock-ups of military vehicles, tanks, and
artillery, as well as audio recordings of sounds that mimicked the movement of
large armies.
Tanks for Ukraine, Turkey halts NATO negotiations, West
Bank violence, AI chatbots
France 24 Videos/January 28/2023
Germany's watershed moment, a nation adverse to conflict zones approving tanks
for Ukraine after guarantees of the same from the U-S. How far will NATO go?
Also, an artificial intelligence chatbot capable of passing an elite business
school MBA exam...a sign we're headed for a dystopian future?
Ukraine hawks had Germany's Chancellor of dithering. Now, will history instead
remember a leader who drove a hard bargain? On Wednesday, Olaf Scholz finally
telling the German parliament that he would do like the hashtag and free the
Leopards, the initial batch of that workhorse of European tanks bound for
Ukraine in a milestone moment for a nation adverse to conflict zones since World
War Two. Turkey's political class is unanimous in denouncing a Quran burning by
Danish-Swedish activist Rasmus Paludan at a rally last weekend. It was enough
for Turkey to suspend talks to lift its objections to Sweden and neighboring
Finland joining Nato. Protests at Jerusalem's Al Aqsa mosque compound after a
firefight between Islamic Jihad militants resulted in Israel's deadliest West
Bank raid in two decades... Al Aqsa where just weeks ago, Benjamin Netanyahu's
far-right security minister went for a stroll in a move that stoked tensions. A
professor has run a study where Artificial Intelligence chat bot GPT3 got a
passing grade at one of the world's top business schools. While Microsoft's laid
off ten thousand workers, it’s invested ten billion dollars on ChatGPT, getting
a leg up on rival Google.
*Produced by Alessandro Xenos, Lauren Bain, Imen Mellaz.
Russia ‘Lied’ About Number Killed In New Year’s Eve Missile
Strike, Says UK
Kevin Schofield/HuffPost UK/January 28, 2023
Debris of a vocational school which was used as a temporary deployment centre
for Russian soldiers after it was hit by a Ukrainian strike on New Year's Eve in
the Russian-controlled town of Makiivka in the eastern region of Donetsk. Russia
lied about the real number of casualties they suffered in a New Year’s Eve
Ukrainian missile strike, according to UK intelligence. In a highly unusual
move, Moscow announced that 89 died when a former school being used as temporary
Russian troop accommodation in Makiivka near Donetsk in eastern Ukraine was
targeted on December 31.
But in their latest intelligence update on the war in Ukraine, the UK Ministry
of Defence said the true number was “highly likely” to be more than 300. They
said “deliberate lying” by Kremlin officials was partly to blame for the huge
discrepancy. The MoD said: “Russian officials likely assessed that it was not
viable to avoid comment in the face of widespread criticism of Russian
commanders over the incident. “The difference between the number of casualties
Russia acknowledged and the likely true total highlights the pervasive presence
of disinformation in Russian public announcements. “This typically comes about
through a combination of deliberate lying authorised by senior leaders, and the
communication of inaccurate reports by more junior officials, keen to downplay
their failings in Russia’s ‘blame and sack’ culture.”The MoD update came just a
day after the UK accused Russia of “deliberately spreading misinformation” to
suggest its efforts in the Ukraine war are “sustaining momentum”. Moscow
struggled to make any real gains over the autumn, especially as Kyiv’s
successful counteroffensive saw troops reclaim vast areas of Ukrainian land from
Russia in the east. Russia did manage to seize Soledar recently, a small town in
the Donbas region, after a period of intense and bloody battle. The Ukrainian
government only confirmed it this week though, while Russian forces had been
claiming victory over the area for some time. But the MoD has suggested that the
Kremlin has been “deliberately” putting out misleading details about other parts
of the war too.
US general warns of potential war with China: ‘My gut tells
me we will fight in 2025’
The Independent/Arpan Rai/January 28, 2023
A four-star US Air Force general has said that Washington is expecting a
potential war with China in 2025 and asked his commanders to prepare for battle
by aiming “for the head”. General Mike Minihan, the head of the Air Mobility
Command, said the US’s main goal should be to deter “and, if required, defeat”
China, in a shocking internal memorandum signed off by him and confirmed to be
genuine by the Pentagon. The memo, which has been circulating on social media,
was first reported by NBC News and is dated 1 February of this year. It contains
several pointers, including ones titled “end state” and “risk”, and also
projects targets from February to April this year . “I hope I am wrong. My gut
tells me we will fight in 2025,” General Minihan said in the memorandum and
stated his reasoning for predicting a potential conflict. He said China will be
eyeing Taiwan’s presidential elections next year as they would offer Xi Jinping
a reason to escalate military aggression in the region, with the US presidential
elections in the same year offering up the Chinese president a “distracted
America”.“Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025,” he said.
Under the “end state” pointer, the general called for “a fortified, ready,
integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team” to “fight and win inside the
first island chain”. It is unclear exactly which island chain General Minihan is
referring to. The US and its regional allies and China have consistently sought
to one up each other in the contested South China Sea region.
The memorandum is addressed to all air wing commanders in the Air Mobility
Command (AMC) and other Air Force operational commanders. For February, it
orders them to report all major efforts to prepare for the fight against China
to the general by the 28th of that month.
The general’s February target also directs all AMC personnel to “fire a clip
into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality
matters most. Aim for the head”. All personnel have been asked to update their
records and emergency contacts, reported NBC news.
For March, the general asks all AMC personnel to “consider their personal
affairs and whether a visit should be scheduled with their servicing base legal
office to ensure they are legally ready and prepared”. Asking personnel to
account for some risk in training, the memorandum states: “Run deliberately, not
recklessly”, adding that “if you are comfortable in your approach to training,
then you are not taking enough risk”. The AMC has close to 50,000 service
members and about 500 planes. The Air Force wing is responsible for transport
and refuelling. General Minihan also indicated the use of commercial drone
swarms as a peek into one US capability that is likely to be considered in case
of conflict with China. The KC-135 units have been asked to prepare for
“delivering 100 off-the-shelf size and type UAVs from a single aircraft,”
according to the memorandum. The general, in his “commander’s intent”, also
claimed this was the “first of 8 monthly directives from me” and added that they
were “not up for negotiation”. The remarks, however, were written off by the
Department of Defence, saying they do not reflect the department’s view on
China. This was further backed by its press secretary, Brig Gen Patrick Ryder,
who said the National Defence Strategy “makes clear that China is the pacing
challenge for the department of defence and our focus remains on working
alongside allies and partners to preserve a peaceful, free and open
Indo-Pacific”.According to an AMC spokesperson confirming the development on
Friday, the memo comes from his directions to subordinate command teams. “His
order builds on last year’s foundational efforts by Air Mobility Command to
ready the Mobility Air Forces for future conflict, should deterrence fail,” the
spokesperson said, according to NBC.
A mummy unearthed in Egypt wrapped in 'layers of gold' may be the oldest ever
discovered, archeologists said
Business Insider/Isobel van Hagen/January 28, 2023
Archeologists uncovered what is likely the oldest mummy ever discovered in Egypt
on Thursday.
Archaeologists discovered the 4,300-year-old Hekashepes near the Step Pyramid
wrapped in gold leaf.
Egypt announced numerous archaeological findings recently in efforts to revive
its tourism industry.
A team of archaeologists unearthed what could be the "oldest" and "most
complete" mummy ever discovered in Egypt, the leader of the excavation announced
on Thursday. Thought to be the remains of a man named Hekashepes, archaeologists
found the 4,300-year-old mummy in an ancient tomb near Cairo from the country's
fifth and sixth dynasty — which spanned from the years 2500 BC to 2100 BC, Zahi
Hawass, Egypt's former minister of antiquities, said in a statement. "I put my
head inside to see what was inside the sarcophagus: A beautiful mummy of a man
completely covered in layers of gold," Hawass told reporters at the site of the
excavation. The centuries-old mummy was found at the bottom of a 15-meter shaft
near the Step Pyramid at the Necropolis of Saqqara, a UNESCO World Heritage
Site. Saqqara, a "great masterpiece of architectural design," is located in
Memphis, the first capital of ancient Egypt.
Several other "important archaeological discoveries" were made, Hawass said,
including tombs belonging to Meri, a "keeper of the secrets" at the royal
palace, and Khnum-djed-ef, a priest in the pyramid complex of Unas. Numerous
statues of deities, amulets, tools for daily life, and stone vessels were also
uncovered. "This discovery is so important as it connects the kings with the
people living around them," Ali Abu Deshish, another archaeologist on the
excavation team, said, according to BBC News. This comes only a day after a
different team of archaeologists discovered ruins of another ancient city called
Luxor, south of Cairo. Earlier this week, scientists "digitally unwrapped" the
2,300-year-old "golden boy" mummy using CT scans. The scans revealed new
insights into how ancient embalmers used precious amulets to protect the dead.
There has been a string of major archaeological discoveries across Egypt in
recent years, highlighted as part of a growing push to promote the country's
tourism industry. The industry has suffered since the risen political unrest in
the country since 2011, as well as travel restrictions due to the COVID-19
pandemic.
Russia faces new sanctions on its energy exports - but this
time China and India may not come to Putin's rescue
Brian Evans/Business Insider/January 28, 2023
The European Union's upcoming ban on Russian oil products could spell more
turmoil for the Kremlin. China and India are unlikely to buy refined Russian
fuels that were once sold to the EU, which will ban them on February 5. That's
in contrast to Russian crude oil, which were snapped up by China and India after
Europe shunned those supplies. Russia faces new sanctions on its energy exports,
but this time China and India may not come to President Vladimir Putin's rescue.
The European Union will ban imports of refined Russian fuels on February 5,
adding to its embargo on seaborne Russian crude oil that began in December. But
while China and India eagerly snapped up discounted supplies of Russian crude
that Europe shunned, they are unlikely to buy refined Russian fuels that were
once sold to the EU. "Both are net exporters of products, so there's no need for
them to be importing more," Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told
Insider. Russian fuels could instead find buyers in Singapore and Fujairah in
the United Arab Emirates, then head to larger Asian markets from there, but not
the big ones, he added. Russian products could also flow to West Africa and
Latin America, while Europe will likely start sourcing more of its diesel from
the US and Asia in a "round of musical chairs," Katona said. China and India
produce fuels at their own refineries that could also supply Europe. In fact, a
Chinese cargo is already headed to Latvia, according to the Financial Times,
despite the extra time and cost of shipping across such distances. In addition,
a ban on Russian fuels could give both China and India more room to bargain for
any supplies they do end up buying, according to Morningstar energy and
utilities strategist Stephen Ellis. Looming over the fuel market is a price cap
on Russian fuels. Similar to the oil price cap, the EU and G7 plan to bar other
countries from accessing insurance and shipping services unless they abide by a
cap on refined products. EU officials are considering a cap of $100 per barrel
for Russian diesel and a cap of $45 a barrel for Russian fuel oil, sources told
Bloomberg. However, Moscow wouldn't be helpless. Russia could refine less fuel
but keep oil production stable, resulting in even more crude exports to India
and China, Katona said. The Kremlin could also "weaponize refined products by
cutting exports," said Ellis. That would eventually result in lower supplies for
Europe. "China will likely to have to use its own products, reducing refined
products exports from China that would have otherwise been available to EU
buyers," he said.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 28-29/2023
ماجد رفي زاده من معهد جيتستون: إدارة بايدن تتجاهل بشكل كامل المظاهرات في إيران
وكذلك الخطر النووي لنظام الملالي
Biden Administration's Total Disregard for Iran's Protestors, Nuclear Threat
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/January 28, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115304/115304/
Iran's mullahs have made significant advances by tripling their nuclear
program's capacity to enrich uranium to 60%, a short step away from the 90%
purity required to build a nuclear weapon.
Iran is selling Russia drones and other material; is Russia "paying" for them by
helping the mullahs complete their nuclear weapons undertaking?
Just last week, the US Department of State declared Iran the "world's leading
sponsor of terrorism." This is the same State Department that had allowed the
mullahs to brutally crack down on and kill their own people, deliver drones and
other deadly weapons to their ally Russia; freely increase their influence in
Latin America, and rapidly advance their nuclear weapons program. What will it
take for the Biden administration finally to help the young men and women of
Iran who have been fighting so hard for their freedom?
Iran's mullahs have made significant advances by tripling their nuclear
program's capacity to enrich uranium to 60%, a short step away from the 90%
purity required to build a nuclear weapon.
Since the Biden administration assumed office, Iran's ruling mullahs have seized
the opportunity to continuously advance their nuclear program, which is
currently a short step away from manufacturing nuclear weapons.
Iran's mullahs have made significant advances by tripling their nuclear
program's capacity to enrich uranium to 60%, a short step away from the 90%
purity required to build a nuclear weapon.
Zohar Palti, the former head of the Israeli Defense Ministry's
political-military bureau and former intelligence director in the Mossad,
recently stated: "They [the Iranian leaders] are days or weeks away from
enriching uranium to 90 percent, which is military-grade".
Enriching uranium at 60% is far beyond the 3.7% that is needed for a civilian
nuclear energy program. Even France, Germany and the United Kingdom warned in a
statement that "This step, which carries significant proliferation-related
risks, has no credible civilian justification," and added that the Iranian
government's latest actions are "further reducing the time Iran would take to
break out toward a first nuclear weapon and... fueling distrust as to Iran's
intentions....".
Concerning the danger of enriching uranium at 60%, Rafael Grossi, Director
General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), recently said:
"This is something that has consequences. It gives them an inventory of nuclear
material for which it cannot be excluded... that there might be another use. We
need to go. We need to verify".
One of the critical issues is that the IAEA has been having a bit of difficulty
monitoring Iran's nuclear activities: the ruling mullahs have been restricting
the ability of IAEA inspectors to monitor their nuclear sites. The Iranian
authorities turned off two of the United Nations surveillance cameras and
deactivated the cameras that helped the IAEA monitor Tehran's nuclear activity.
The violations by the Iranian regime come at a critical time: the Iranian regime
is reportedly digging an underground nuclear facility in Natanz, in addition to
its Fordow nuclear facility, reportedly difficult to bomb but "not impregnable."
"Fordow is already viewed as so deeply buried," David Albright, president of the
Institute for Science and International Security, pointed out, "that it would be
difficult to destroy via aerial attack. The new Natanz site may be even harder
to destroy."
The Iranian regime most likely halted its cooperation with the UN nuclear
watchdog so it would not have to provide any explanation for its clandestine and
undeclared nuclear sites, previously identified by the IAEA at three locations
in Iran.
"We have to sit down urgently if possible to see how we continue with this,"
Grossi warned. "Iran has not provided explanations that are technically credible
in relation to the agency's findings at three undeclared locations in Iran."
The Iranian regime may, in fact, have begun already enriching uranium at the 90%
level required for the production of a nuclear bomb. Iran is selling Russia
drones and other material; is Russia "paying" for them by helping the mullahs
complete their nuclear weapons undertaking?
The Biden administration has most likely been the best gift Iran could ever have
hoped for. Just last week, the US Department of State declared Iran the "world's
leading sponsor of terrorism." This is the same State Department that had
allowed the mullahs to brutally crack down on and kill their own people, deliver
drones and other deadly weapons to their ally Russia; freely increase their
influence in Latin America, and rapidly advance their nuclear weapons program.
What will it take for the Biden administration finally to help the young men and
women of Iran who have been fighting so hard for their freedom?
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated
scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and
president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has
authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at
Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19343/iran-nuclear-threat
دراسة مهمة من اعداد جونسين سباير تتناول بالعمق
الحرس الثوري الإيراني المحتل أن تدرجه دول غربية على قوائم الإرهاب
Iran’s IRGC is under the Western spotlight
Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/January 28/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115317/joanthan-spyer-jerusalem-post-irans-irgc-is-under-the-western-spotlight%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d9%85%d9%87%d9%85%d8%a9-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d8%b9%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%af-%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%86%d8%b3/
BEHIND THE LINES: Western attitudes to the Iran’s Revolutionary
Guards are hardening, though decisive action remains elusive.
In a reflection of hardening Western attitudes toward the Iranian regime, a
number of countries have begun in recent weeks to consider banning the Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in its entirety.
The 125,000-strong IRGC is the Islamic Republic of Iran’s praetorian guard. It
is also, alongside the Ministry of Intelligence and Security, the main
instrument the regime possesses both for internal repression and for external
subversion.
The IRGC is a vital tool of Iranian policy. Responsible for a number of fearful
massacres in the first years of the Islamic Republic, it has also carried out
assassinations on European soil and elsewhere, from the 1980s until today.
The attempted murder of former Iranian prime minister Shapour Bakhtiar in 1980
in a Paris suburb was among the IRGC’s first high-profile operations on foreign
soil. The IRGC finally succeeded in killing Bakhtiar in Suresnes, France, in
August 1991.
The assassination of four leading Iranian Kurdish political figures in the
Mykonos restaurant in Berlin in September 1992 was among many subsequent
high-profile killings in Europe and beyond it.
The IRGC’s casual dismissal of the legitimacy of state borders and foreign
sovereignties has continued until the present time. As recently as August 2022,
the US Justice Department announced charges against an IRGC member plotting to
kill John Bolton, the former US national security advisor.
Perhaps of greater consequence, the IRGC’s unparalleled skills in proxy and
revolutionary warfare are the single most important components in Tehran’s
successful advance into the Arab world’s heartland over the last decade. The
IRGC’s methods for the recruitment, training, indoctrination and deployment of
Shia and other Arab youth, in the service of Tehran, are the key elements that
have enabled Iran to outperform its Sunni rivals, and arguably the West also, in
this vital realm.
The IRGC's reach and influence throughout the Middle East and beyond
THE PROTOTYPE for the IRGC’s methodology and practice of turning irregular
warfare into political power is Lebanese Hezbollah, its earliest franchise.
Forty years after its emergence, Hezbollah today controls and rules Lebanon as a
satrapy, on Tehran’s behalf.
The IRGC’s creation or sponsorship of parallel and similar bodies has brought it
massive and immovable influence in Syria, a dominant role in Iraq, control of a
large part of Yemen (including the capital, Sana’a), and a key role in
Palestinian politics, where it is today the only state actively providing
training and materials to those engaged in armed activity.
The US designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization on April 8, 2019, adding
the organization to its Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. It was the
first Western country to do so. The IRGC, or elements of it, were already on a
number of other US designation lists due to its activities in nuclear
proliferation, internal human rights abuses, and terrorist and subversive
activities.
In recent months, the UK too has made significant progress toward proscribing
the IRGC in its entirety. Current UK Security Minister Tom Tugendhat is one of a
number of senior British politicians who have long advocated the banning of the
IRGC. (Full disclosure: this author submitted evidence to the UK House of
Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee in April 2020 in support of a call to
ban the IRGC.)
The issue has reemerged in the UK due to a number of recent incidents. The
hanging of former deputy defense minister Alireza Akbari – a dual British
citizen charged with spying for MI6 after a confession was extracted through
torture – was met with outrage.
In November, Ken McCallum, director general of MI5, Britain’s domestic security
service, noted at least 10 recent plots to kidnap or kill British or UK-based
individuals by the Iranian regime. This followed warnings by police in preceding
months of two active plots by the Iranian regime to kill UK-based journalists.
The House of Commons voted on January 12 in favor of a motion urging the
government to ban the IRGC. It remains to be seen if the government will now act
on this. “Whitehall sources” quoted by the BBC in a January 3 report said that
while no announcement was “imminent,” it was “broadly correct” that the UK
government intends to proscribe the IRGC.
In the EU, too, there is growing awareness of the nature of the IRGC and the
threat it represents. Similarly, though, while awareness is growing, the final
steps toward full proscription still seem some distance away.
On Monday, EU foreign ministers voted to impose new sanctions on 18 Iranian
citizens and 19 bodies, including IRGC-related individuals and units, because of
the current brutal crackdown on protesters in Iran. But while the European
Parliament and some governments have made clear that they favor the EU’s total
proscription of the IRGC, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell this week said
that such a proscription can come only if a court in an EU member state finds
the IRGC guilty of terrorism.
In Canada, also, there are calls for the proscription of the IRGC in its
entirety. On October 7, 2022, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced plans to
expand sanctions against the IRGC and to introduce “a new tailored regulation to
ensure no sanctioned individual connected to the IRGC can enter Canada.”
On January 9, additional sanctions were announced on two Iranian individuals and
three Iranian entities. Canada has designated Iran as a regime that practices
terror, but it is currently resisting calls for the complete proscription of the
IRGC on the grounds that this would affect individuals conscripted into the
organization.
SO WHAT explains the sudden Western interest in the IRGC? Once, European and
Western governments tended to see Tehran as mainly a challenge to regional
countries. There is now a growing acknowledgment that the long-standing claims
by Israeli and Arab voices that the Tehran regime and the IRGC represent a
challenge to global order were not simply a rhetorical device intended to drag
Western powers into a Middle Eastern contest.
A number of factors are informing this changed perspective. Possibly the most
significant is Iranian active support for the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
Iranian Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 drones are playing a vital role for Moscow in
Ukraine, specifically in attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.
The Ukraine war is perceived as the key threat to the US-dominated global order
in the West. The growing alliance between Tehran and Moscow, which the war has
produced, places Iran squarely on the opposite side from Western European
countries, in a conflict that directly and deeply affects them.
Tehran’s crackdown on growing internal dissent, and particularly its repression
of women’s rights, is the second key element in hardening Western perceptions of
the Iranian regime. The key role being played by the IRGC in the brutal
crackdown on the protests further strengthens the case for its proscription.
The failure of efforts to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
agreement is surely an additional element, though lingering hopes in this regard
may also explain the reluctance of the UK, EU and Canada to make the final
steps.
Finally, it’s ludicrous that Iran is trying to portray itself as an enemy of
jihadi extremism, which remains a central security challenge for the West. Case
in point are incidents such as the recent attempted murder of author Salman
Rushdie by a Lebanese Shia supporter of Hezbollah and Iran. The evidence of
ongoing IRGC assassination plans on Western soil confirms this picture.
The time of the West’s indifference to the IRGC is over. United and decisive
action against it, however, has not yet begun.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-729770?fbclid=IwAR07j3-7jsJkakar3CcbcvjjAlCDxTS0moIN7vTk4xHhLVMaZynmkKJdWC0
End of the road for Syria’s opposition?
Dr. Haid Haid/Arab News/January 28, 2023
Turkiye’s efforts to normalize diplomatic relations with the Syrian regime have
fueled unease among Syria’s armed opposition groups, leading some opponents of
Bashar Assad to fear the end of their decade-long cause.
Among those most concerned is Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, an armed organization that
controls most of northwest Syria. While there is no evidence that Turkiye
supports HTS directly, Ankara has been a major backer of other opposition groups
during the 12-year Syrian conflict. Turkiye has mutual interests with HTS and
has coordinated with the group on specific issues. Turkiye and Syria are working
to restore ties, and if they find common ground, it could upend efforts to
challenge the Assad regime, and effectively mark the end of HTS.
Assad has repeatedly conditioned reconciliation with Ankara on the complete
withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria. Damascus also insists on the
termination of Ankara’s support for armed opposition groups.
While some armed groups might be able to survive the regime’s territorial
expansion, HTS is unlikely to be among them. That is because the group is
designated as a terrorist organization by both Ankara and Damascus due to its
former affiliation with Al-Qaeda. In fact, Turkiye’s efforts to reconcile with
Assad pose an existential threat to HTS.
The deployment of Turkish forces to Idlib in 2017, designed to prevent the
Syrian regime from seizing the last rebel stronghold, was enabled by HTS, which
helped provide a safer environment for Turkish troops. Today, the group fears
that this history might lead supporters to conclude that HTS favors Turkiye’s
talks with Assad — a perception that could threaten the group’s unity and fuel
public anger.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani was quick to denounce the Syrian-Turkish
rapprochement. In a video statement, Al-Jolani said that he would not reconcile
with Assad and promised to continue the fight until Damascus is liberated. He
also pledged not to cede territory to Damascus. HTS is widely viewed as the
strongest and most coherent armed group in northwest Syria. Therefore, it is
important for rebel groups to secure their participation in the fight against
the regime in order to better defend their territories.
To hammer the point home, HTS has increased its attacks against the Syrian
regime in recent weeks. In contrast to the relative calm during the last year,
the organization reportedly carried out 11 operations against regime forces in
the past month and targeted pro-government cells operating in Idlib.
But HTS is also pursuing a nuanced strategy, aware that its survival depends on
maintaining good ties with its northern neighbor. For instance, rather than
engage in direct confrontations with regime forces, it has focused operations on
defensive military sites behind enemy lines. This is likely because it wants to
avoid fueling tensions with Turkiye, which maintains a ceasefire brokered with
Russia in March 2020.
No matter how the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement progresses, these are uneasy
times for Syria’s opposition in Idlib.
Moreover, HTS has refrained from directly criticizing Turkiye’s foreign policy
and assumed a more conciliatory tone. In a December statement, HTS blamed the
Assad regime for its unwillingness to address Turkish concerns, and urged Ankara
to “preserve its values and moral gains in supporting the oppressed.”
It also expressed understanding for the “pressures that Turkiye is facing at the
local and international levels.” These include Turkiye’s need to make progress
on facilitating the return of Syrian refugees and countering the “Kurdish
threat” before Turkish elections in May.
Privately, HTS has been more direct. Local sources tell me that HTS held a
meeting in December with Turkish officials, during which the group’s leaders
expressed concern about reconciliation with Syria and reiterated their
commitment to honoring agreements with Turkiye.
The group’s calculated response appears to be driven by an assessment that
negotiations between Ankara and Damascus are unlikely to yield results. This
view is shared by many Syria observers who predict that the talks will stall
because Turkiye and Syria remain far apart on many issues, not to mention the
regime’s unwillingness to compromise.
This could explain why the HTS reaction so far has been designed to assure its
domestic audience of its commitment to the fight, rather than to aggressively
persuade Turkiye to terminate talks with Assad.
Of course, all bets are off if talks between Ankara and Damascus produce an
unexpected breakthrough. In such a scenario, HTS would likely first use its
diplomatic channels with Ankara to reach a compromise that would allow it to
preserve its interests as much as possible. These might include, for example,
withdrawing from specific areas in Idlib in exchange for expanding into northern
Aleppo.
Failing a mutually accepted compromise with Turkiye, the group would undoubtedly
turn to more aggressive means of survival.
No matter how the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement progresses, these are uneasy
times for Syria’s opposition in Idlib — those who fight, and those who simply
long for an end to years of suffering.
• Dr. Haid Haid is a Syrian columnist and a consulting associate fellow of
Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program. Copyright: Syndication
Bureau
Europe and the US double down on support for Ukraine
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/January 28, 2023
After fears that the European, and wider Western, unity over support for Ukraine
might break down this winter, there have been fresh signs of resolve within the
alliance this week, as the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion fast
approaches.
Exhibit A is the fact that European officials are — in advance of an EU-Ukraine
Summit in Kyiv this coming Friday — actively planning a 10th round of sanctions
on Russia. This potentially includes capping the sale prices of exports of
refined petroleum products, building on the recently introduced caps on oil and
gas prices.Exhibit B is the agreement this week by the US and Germany to deliver
dozens of US-made M1 Abrams and German-made Leopard tanks. This decision was
greeted with some jubilation in Kyiv, which wants the heavy armor delivered
quickly so it can be deployed on the battlefield as soon as possible. These and
other recent developments have led some to suggest that the war might have
reached a critical turning point. For example, former US Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges
predicted that Ukrainian forces will make sweeping gains this year and oust
Russia from occupied territory in the Crimea.
This forecast should not be dismissed out of hand. It should be remembered that
when Russia launched its three-pronged invasion in February 2022, its goal of
erasing Ukraine as a sovereign nation within a matter of days was widely seen in
the West as being plausible.
Nearly a year later, however, Ukraine has taken back at least half of the
initial territory seized by Russia. Moreover, as Ukrainian victories on the
battlefield mount up, allies in Europe and the wider West, especially the US,
are supplying Kyiv with increasingly sophisticated weapons, as this week’s tank
agreement illustrates.Yet, as much as Ukraine has managed to turn the tables on
Russia, it will be exceptionally hard for Kyiv to drive out all of Moscow’s
forces from occupied territories this year. This core point was highlighted this
month by Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the
nation’s top-ranking military officer, who said this would be “very, very
difficult” to achieve but added that this “doesn’t mean it can’t happen, doesn’t
mean it won’t happen.”
Moreover, tensions remain in European and wider Western policy circles insofar
as allies there clearly want to ensure Ukraine has enough financing and weaponry
to avoid losing the war, but are much more hesitant about providing Kyiv the
resources it needs to go one step further and potentially win it decisively.
This political factor was clearly in play in recent weeks during the
decision-making process in Germany and the US over the tanks. Both Chancellor
Olaf Scholz and President Joe Biden stressed the defensive nature of the
decision, stating that they are “helping Ukraine protect land” rather than
become an “offensive threat.”
While Europe might well be doing enough to ensure Ukraine does not lose, the
Ukrainians might lack the ability to deliver a knock-out blow.
This frustrates many in Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told NATO
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that “progress must be made in other aspects
of our defense cooperation,” including equipping the Ukrainian air force with
technologically advanced fighter jets.
However, a significant number of European and wider Western governments remain
opposed to such a development, fearing the aircraft might be used to strike
targets inside Russia. In Scholz’s speech to the Bundestag in Berlin on
Wednesday outlining the details of the agreement to supply tanks, for instance,
he stated there would be “no fighter jet deliveries to Ukraine.”
Nevertheless, with broad support for Ukraine remaining steadfast in Europe and
the wider Western alliance for now, attention and speculation is shifting to the
issue of Russia’s staying power in Ukraine.
There is no question that Putin is under immense pressure. However, the balance
of probability suggests that he can hold onto power for the foreseeable future,
until at least the next presidential election in March 2024, unless the war
begins to go exceptionally badly for Russia in coming months.
Beyond that, however, the outlook is much more murky. It should be remembered
that Russia has a history of regime change in the aftermath of unsuccessful wars
(if that is what Ukraine ultimately proves to be), from the Bolshevik Revolution
after the Russo-Japanese War and the First World War, to the collapse of the
Soviet Union following its defeat in Afghanistan.
Yet not all previous Russian military defeats brought about great social and
political change. So in the face of defeat in Ukraine, as in the case after
Joseph Stalin’s failure to conquer Finland in 1939-40, Russia’s subdued elites
might ultimately choose not to mount a serious challenge to their leader.
Amid this significant uncertainty, the most likely outcome this year is a
continuing war of attrition. While Europe and the wider West might well be doing
enough to ensure Ukraine does not lose, the Ukrainians might lack the ability in
the coming months to deliver a knock-out military blow.
• Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
أفرام قصيفي/عرب نيوز : يؤكد المحللون بأنه في
غياب الردع الفاعل فإن إرهاب ومخططات إيران الإجرامية سوف تستمر داخل الدول الغربية
In absence of deterrents, Iran terror plots on Western soil will continue:
analysts
Ephrem Kossaify/Arab News/January 28, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115322/ephrem-kossaify-arab-news-in-absence-of-deterrents-iran-terror-plots-on-western-soil-will-continue-analysts-%d8%a3%d9%81%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%82%d8%b5%d9%8a%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b9%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%86/
NEW YORK: The US Justice Department’s announcement on Friday of the arrest of
three East European men with ties to Tehran in the plot to kill Iranian-American
journalist and human rights activist Masih Alinejad has hardly surprised experts
and analysts.
The news has recalled many deja-vus of such Iranian activities on American soil,
including the 2011 plot to kill then-Saudi Ambassador to the US Adel Al-Jubeir.
Analysts lament the absence of deterrents for Iran, and warn that if stronger
actions are not taken, such plots will continue to unfold on US territory.
The three men are now facing murder-for-hire and money-laundering charges for
plotting to kill Alinejad.
One of the men was arrested last summer in the Brooklyn neighborhood where
Alinejad lives. At the time, he was charged with possessing a firearm after
police found an AK-47-style rifle in the back seat of his car along with
ammunition.
The incident raised many suspicions then, until the backstory of how it
transpired was revealed on Friday.
The Justice Department said in a statement that since at least July, the three
men have been “tasked with carrying out” the murder of Alinejad, “who previously
has been the target of plots by the government of Iran to intimidate, harass and
kidnap” her.
“As recently as 2020 and 2021, Iranian intelligence officials and assets plotted
to kidnap (Alinejad) from within the United States for rendition to Iran in an
effort to silence (her) criticism of the regime.”
All three of the defendants, Attorney General Merrick Garland said on Friday,
are currently in custody.
Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said at a news conference unveiling the
charges: “Today’s indictment exposes a dangerous menace to national security — a
double threat posed by a vicious transnational crime group operating from what
it thought was the safe haven of a rogue nation. That rogue nation is the
Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, told Arab News
that Friday’s arrests demonstrate that “there’s an absence of deterrents with
respect to the Islamic Republic operating on US soil, and we have to change that
calculus otherwise we can only expect more of these plots in the future.”
On Oct. 11, 2011, two Iranian nationals were charged in a federal court in New
York with plotting to assassinate Al-Jubeir.
What became known as the Iran assassination plot or the Iran terror plot
involved planning to plant a bomb outside the restaurant where Al-Jubeir was
dining, and subsequently to bomb the Saudi and Israeli embassies in Washington,
DC.
“These cases are handled as law enforcement matters. They’re handled usually
with an indictment, a strongly worded warning and a statement from a senior US
official,” Brodsky said.
“And then likely there will be some sanctions levied in the future. And that is,
in the long run, not going to change the calculus because the costs are usually,
in (Iranian officials’) minds, absorbable. You’re dealing with piecemeal
sanctions on individuals who have no assets in the US,” he added.
“You’re dealing with a statement that there’s been so many warnings about, it
doesn’t seem to deter them.
“And the indictments usually also don’t necessarily deter. In this case, it’s
interesting because they were able to take into custody these three individuals.
“But this will be absorbable for Tehran because these aren’t Iranian officials.
These are members of an Eastern European criminal syndicate.”
Stemming Iranian criminal activities on Western territories requires, in the
long run, a “multilateral perspective,” Brodsky said. “This is an issue that’s
affecting not just the US (but) our European allies as well.”
Last November, two British-Iranian journalists working in the UK for TV channel
Iran International were warned by police of a “credible” plot by Tehran to kill
them.
The outlet accused Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of being part of a
“significant and dangerous escalation” of Tehran’s “campaign to intimidate
Iranian journalists working abroad.”
Earlier this month, French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo was hit by a
cyberattack after publishing a caricature of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
“A digital attack doesn’t leave anyone dead, but it sets the tone. The mullahs’
regime feels in such danger that it considers it vital to its existence to hack
the website of a French newspaper,” Charlie Hebdo said. Hossein Salami,
commander in chief of the IRGC, on Tuesday threatened the staff of the French
magazine with revenge.
Brodsky said it is important “to start considering a potential kinetic
retaliation for these kinds of plots, to deter Iran’s system from going any
further.”He cited yet another indictment that was unsealed last summer, and
which charged an IRGC member with a murder-for-hire scheme of a former US
national security adviser. “So if we continue to handle these cases as just
really law enforcement matters with a very minimal or nonexistent policy
response, we can only expect the Iranian system to continue this vicious cycle,”
Brodsky said.
Although the IRGC is designated as a terrorist organization in the US, it is
still not listed as such in European jurisdictions. Brodsky said it is of
paramount urgency for the EU and UK to do so “and quickly.”
It is “overdue for the IRGC to be sanctioned as a terrorist organization in
(European) jurisdictions. It would have a substantive impact in the fact that it
would increase market deterrence with respect to the Islamic Republic,” and
would ban former IRGC businessmen and their families from profiting off illicit
wealth in Western jurisdictions, he added. Most crucially, designating the IRGC
as terrorist would also have a “symbolic” impact, and would be “the signal from
the leading democracies of the world that they stand with the Iranian people who
were bravely protesting and chanting, ‘Death to the IRGC,’ and it would show
that (Europe is) standing with the people and not their oppressors,” he said.
“Not to mention the many Arab countries (that) are also victims of the IRGC.”