English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 27/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
Nicodemus asked, Our law does not judge people without first giving them a hearing to find out what they are doing, does it
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 07/40-52/:”When they heard these words, some in the crowd said, ‘This is really the prophet.’Others said, ‘This is the Messiah.’ But some asked, ‘Surely the Messiah does not come from Galilee, does he?Has not the scripture said that the Messiah is descended from David and comes from Bethlehem, the village where David lived?’ So there was a division in the crowd because of him. Some of them wanted to arrest him, but no one laid hands on him. Then the temple police went back to the chief priests and Pharisees, who asked them, ‘Why did you not arrest him?’ The police answered, ‘Never has anyone spoken like this!’Then the Pharisees replied, ‘Surely you have not been deceived too, have you? Has any one of the authorities or of the Pharisees believed in him? But this crowd, which does not know the law they are accursed.’Nicodemus, who had gone to Jesus before, and who was one of them, asked, ‘Our law does not judge people without first giving them a hearing to find out what they are doing, does it?’ They replied, ‘Surely you are not also from Galilee, are you? Search and you will see that no prophet is to arise from Galilee.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 26-27/2023
'Even if it costs me my life': Bitar wants justice before blast anniversary
Anger soars in Beirut amid standoff over port blast probe
Blast victims' relatives rally for embattled probe judge
Oueidat denies Bitar removal on agenda of Higher Judicial Council
Abdel Massih: Justice minister's bodyguards assaulted MPs
Freed port blast detainee arrives in US shortly after release
Lebanese protest record devaluation of local currency
Beirut blast victims’ relatives rally for embattled probe judge
UK defense senior advisor conducts visit to Lebanon
HRW, Amnesty Int'l call for UN fact-finding mission into port blast
Central bank freezes accounts of US-sanctioned individuals
Bassil warns against 'bypassing' Christians in presidential vote
Anger soars in Beirut amid standoff over port blast probe

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 26-27/2023
Israel Urges NATO to Confront Iran’s Threat
Paris: Franco-Irish Citizen Held in Iran Must be Freed Immediately
Analysis: Stakes rise as Iran can fuel 'several' atom bombs
Iranian chess player refuses to film apology video for removing hijab
Palestinians say Israeli troops kill 9 in West Bank raid
Blinken will hold his first in-person talks with Netanyahu since the leader returned to power
Russia fires dozens of missiles, drones at Ukraine
This is the M1 Abrams, the powerful American main battle tank the US is sending to Ukraine
Can climate change lose Russia the war in Ukraine?
Why Turkey is blocking NATO's expansion

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 26-27/2023
Iranian regime will not change while sanctions are ineffective/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 26/2023
Reading Putin’s mind...What must the Russian dictator be thinking?/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/January 26/2023
Turkey's Elections Are Not Just Turkey's/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/January 26, 2023
How America Became Like a Muslim Nation/Raymond Ibrahim/American Thinker/January 26, 2023
The Great Powers Are Not So Strong/Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 26/2023
Oh, Biden, What Have You Done?/Jonathan Alter/The New York Times/January, 26/2023

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 26-27/2023
'Even if it costs me my life': Bitar wants justice before blast anniversary
Associated Press/January 26, 2023
Lead investigator into the Beirut port blast Judge Tarek Bitar has told The Associated Press that he will go on with the investigation, “even if it is going to cost me my life" and hopes that there will be an indictment ahead of the third anniversary of the blast this coming August. “I have nothing against Judge Oueidat but there are some suspicions that came up. He should come and defend himself,” Bitar said. “I will continue with the case and I will not leave it unless they remove me completely." “Everyone that I summon has to come because the blood of the victims is above everything,” the judge added. Lebanese judge Tarek Bitar crossed all red lines and openly challenged an entrenched ruling elite, as he decided to resume his investigation after a slew of lawsuits, mostly from politicians charged in the case, forced him to stop work for 13 months. On Wednesday, he refused to step down from the probe, rejecting charges brought against him by Lebanon's top prosecutor in the politically charged case, Judge Ghassan Oueidat.

Anger soars in Beirut amid standoff over port blast probe
AP/January 26, 2023
BEIRUT: Scores of protesters Thursday scuffled with riot police in Beirut as they tried to break into the chief offices of Lebanon’s judiciary, after officials moved to cripple the probe into a massive port explosion that wreaked havoc on the capital city. Lebanon’s chief prosecutor Ghassan Oweidat Wednesday ordered the release of all suspects detained in the investigation into the deadly 2020 port blast in Beirut and filed charges against the judge leading the probe, Tarek Bitar. Bitar on Monday resumed the investigation based on his legal interpretation, following a 13-month halt over legal challenges raised by politicians accused in the probe. He also charged over a dozen senior political, judicial, and security officials, including Oweidat. The recent developments have led to a standoff between the two judges, who each claim the other is breaking the law, crippling the country’s judiciary, as its cash-strapped institutions continue to decay.The probe has stalled for years, as it threatens to rattle Lebanon’s ruling elite, which is rife with corruption and mismanagement, and has helped push the country into an unprecedented economic meltdown.
Hundreds of tons of highly explosive ammonium nitrate, a material used in fertilizers, detonated at Beirut Port on Aug. 4, 2020, killing 218 people, injuring over 6,000 and damaging large parts of the Lebanese capital. Bitar told The Associated Press Wednesday that he will go on with the investigation “even if it is going to cost me my life”, and will only stop if the authorities formally remove him from the investigation. Lebanon’s highest judicial body, the Higher Judicial Council, is scheduled to meet Thursday afternoon to discuss the latest developments in the inquest. Advocates for Bitar, which include most of the families of the blast victims, fear they may issue a decision to remove the maverick judge from the probe. Protesters, including relatives of the victims of the explosion, chanted slogans against Oweidat and senior officials, and tried to break into Beirut’s historical Palace of Justice. Several demonstrators were wounded as police confronted the crowds and beat some people with batons. Security forces also arrested an activist lawyer, Wassif Harakeh, but released him shortly after. Activist William Noun, who lost his brother in the fatal port explosion, called for an international investigation to replace the stalled Lebanese probe. “What happened yesterday was pathetic,” Noun told the AP. “We want an international investigation, or the judiciary should either give us a solution after the meeting, or say they can’t handle the case anymore and leave matters into our own hands.”
Chaos also ensued inside the Justice Palace, after over a dozen legislators from reformist and traditional opposition parties met with caretaker Justice Minister Henri Khoury. The heated meeting about the recent developments in the Beirut port probe led to scuffles with the minister’s guards who allegedly tried to snatch their phones as they filmed the meeting. Some of them say they were attacked, and have called for Khoury to resign. “These aren’t guards, these are the dogs of the justice minister,” opposition parliamentarian Adib Abdelmassih told the press after leaving the Justice Palace. “We were talking about the law in a civilized way and the parliamentarians were giving their opinions on the matter.” Reformist legislator Ibrahim Mneimeh told the AP that Justice Minister Khoury said he will take a position based on what happens at the council’s meeting. “We told him that Lebanon is at a significant crossroads, the judiciary has shattered, and he has a responsibility to restore matters within his prerogatives,” Mneimneh explained. “In my opinion, this indicates that the probe and justice are threatened, and that this case could be terminated.”

Blast victims' relatives rally for embattled probe judge
Agence France Presse January 26, 2023
Scores of protesters Thursday scuffled with riot police in Beirut as they tried to break into the Justice Palace. Security was tight at the palace of justice in Beirut as activists and families of the port blast victims rallied in front of the Justice Palace ahead of a Higher Judicial Council to support the judge investigating the disaster. They protested recent moves by State Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oueidat who has charged Beirut port blast investigator Judge Tarek Bitar and released all suspects detained in connection with the deadly blast, including port chief and head of customs Badri Daher.
Experts have warned that the battle between Bitar and Oueidat, who has charged him with insubordination, will be a critical test for the faltering justice system of the crisis-hit Mediterranean nation. The organisation of families of those killed called the move against Bitar a "political, security and judicial coup d'état".
Lebanon has a history of political assassinations, and authorities are now "entirely responsible for the judge's safety," the families warned. Former head of the Beirut Bar Association MP Melhem Khalaf called the situation "a judicial disaster."Khalaf and MP Najat Saliba of the change parliamentary bloc had started last week an open-ended sit-in inside parliament to press for the election of a new president. He left parliament today for the first time since he started the sit-in to join the families of the victims. Many other change and opposition MPs joined the rally. The Higher Judicial Council was scheduled to meet Thursday afternoon to discuss the latest developments in the inquest but canceled due to a lack of quorum as six members refused that the council convene under popular pressure. Oueidat was in the building but failed to join the council and stayed in his office guarded by armored security forces, who later escorted him out. Advocates for Bitar, which include most of the families of the blast victims, feared the judicial meeting would have issued a decision to remove the maverick judge from the probe. "The Higher Judicial Council is responsible for putting this farce to an end," Khalaf said. "They must explain to us what is happening with the judiciary."Khalaf called on the justice minister to "find solutions" so that the probe can proceed, describing the situation as "judicial and legal hysteria". "We had faith in justice, but the mask has now fallen," said protester Abdo Matta, 54, who lost his son in the explosion.
"We will never stop, we want to know who killed our children."The judicial arm-wrestling between Bitar and Oueidat risks deepening Lebanon's mounting woes, and some warn it may be the last nail in the coffin of a notoriously politicized justice system. "The future of this case is fraught with danger," said legal expert Paul Morcos. The complex case is subject to "immense political pressure that Lebanon's justice system cannot surmount, creating this huge rift," he added. Several demonstrators were wounded as police confronted the crowds and beat some people with batons. Security forces also arrested an activist lawyer, Wassif Harakeh, but released him shortly after. Activist William Noun, who lost his brother in the fatal port explosion, called for an international investigation to replace the stalled Lebanese probe. “What happened yesterday was pathetic,” Noun told the AP. “We want an international investigation, or the judiciary should either give us a solution after the meeting, or say they can't handle the case anymore and leave matters into our own hands.”

Oueidat denies Bitar removal on agenda of Higher Judicial Council
Naharnet January 26, 2023
State Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oueidat has denied that the Higher Judicial Council would discuss removing Beirut port blast investigator Judge Tarek Bitar from his post in the meeting that it will hold on Thursday. In remarks to Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, Oueidat also said that he does not rule out that Bitar might “commit a lot of legal violations in the coming days, including the issuance of an in-absentia arrest warrant” against him and other judges. “The appointment of an alternate investigative judge has become something of the past and the (Higher) Judicial Council will discuss the content of the Justice Minister memo, in which he requested looking into the legality of the measures that were taken by Bitar over the past hours,” Oueidat added. Later on Thursday, Oueidat issued a memo forbidding the reception of “any decision, notice or document from Judge Tarek Bitar, seeing as he is recused."

Abdel Massih: Justice minister's bodyguards assaulted MPs
Associated Press January 26, 2023
Chaos ensued Thursday inside the Justice Palace, after over a dozen legislators from reformist and traditional opposition parties met with caretaker Justice Minister Henri Khoury. The heated meeting about the recent developments in the Beirut port probe led to scuffles with the minister’s guards who allegedly tried to snatch their phones as they filmed the meeting. Some of them say they were attacked, and have called for Khoury to resign. “These aren’t guards, these are the dogs of the justice minister,” opposition parliamentarian Adib Abdelmassih told the press after leaving the Justice Palace. “We were talking about the law in a civilized way and the parliamentarians were giving their opinions on the matter.”Abdel Massih called on the caretaker minister Henry Khoury to resign, after the incident, saying that the bodyguards of the justice minister assaulted the lawmakers. MPs Waddah al-Sadek, Melhem Khalaf and others were asking the minister to act, after the latest judicial turmoil. The bodyguards pushed the lawmakers and tried to take their mobile phones, Abdel Masih said. "We raised our voice, calling on the minister to take an administrative decision regarding the deep rift in the judiciary. The minister raised his voice back and his guards attacked us and beat us," Abdel Massih said. Families of victims killed in the 2020 Beirut explosion rallied Thursday to support the judge investigating the disaster, after he was charged by Lebanon's top prosecutor in the highly politically case. Bitar this week defied Lebanon's entrenched ruling elite by daring to charge several powerful figures -- including prosecutor general Ghassan Oueidat -- over the blast, and revived a probe that was suspended for over a year amid vehement political and legal pushback. Oueidat in turn charged Bitar for insubordination and for "usurping power," calling him for questioning on Thursday -- a summons Bitar is not expected to attend. MP Paula Yacoubian, who met the minister with the other MPs, said that what she heard from the minister is not reassuring. "We sensed an inclination to dismiss Bitar and appoint another judge," Yaacoubian said, warning that the MPs will not remain silent. Reformist legislator Ibrahim Mneimeh told the AP that Justice Minister Khoury said he will take a position based on what happens at the council's meeting. “We told him that Lebanon is at a significant crossroads, the judiciary has shattered, and he has a responsibility to restore matters within his prerogatives,” Mneimneh explained. “In my opinion, this indicates that the probe and justice are threatened, and that this case could be terminated.” The opposition and change MPs later met with Judge Suheil Abboud, the chief of the Higher Judicial Council, which is set to convene later in the day.

Freed port blast detainee arrives in US shortly after release
Agence France Presse/Associated Press January 26, 2023
The director of the Security and Safety Dept. at Beirut’s port, who was released from detention Wednesday at State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat’s order, has arrived in the United States. A dual American-Lebanese citizen, the director, Mohammed Ziad al-Ouf, was among 17 port case detainees freed on Wednesday in a move disputed by the lead investigative judge in the case Judge Tarek Bitar. Al-Ouf’s lawyer Sakher al-Hashem said the suspended director has "arrived in the United States, and will not return to Lebanon." A judicial official said that the United States had lobbied for his release. Al-Ouf traveled despite the fact that Oueidat had slapped travel bans on all the released detainees. Some media reports meanwhile said that al-Ouf left the country before the issuance of the travel bans. Nizar Zakka, President of the U.S.-based Hostage Aid Worldwide, tweeted that al-Ouf has been “freed from unlawful detention in Lebanon for more than 2 years.”He “will finally be reunited with his family!”, Zakka added, thanking U.S. Special Presidential Envoy Roger Carstens, the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Hostage Aid Worldwide and “everyone who helped” secure al-Ouf’s release. Speaking to al-Jadeed TV, Zakka said al-Ouf traveled to carry out medical checkups in the United States and will return to Lebanon. “He didn’t want to travel. He wanted to stay (in Lebanon) but he was pressured to go do his medical checkups,” Zakka added, clarifying that the checkups were requested by the U.S. government seeing as this is the routine procedure for those freed from “arbitrary detention.”Asked about the travel ban issued by Oueidat, Zakka said he did not know about such an order and that al-Ouf “traveled normally” through Beirut’s airport. "We have been waiting for this for so long because he's been unlawfully detained for two and a half years," al-Ouf's daughter Dalia told The Associated Press. "What happened today is very thrilling and we're very happy.""We thought he will never come out because you never know here with the Lebanese laws and all the political situation so we were never sure when this will happen," she said. One of history's biggest non-nuclear explosions, the August 4, 2020 blast destroyed much of Beirut's port and surrounding areas, killing more than 215 people and injuring over 6,500. Authorities said hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate fertilizer haphazardly stocked in a port warehouse since 2014 had caught fire, causing the explosion. No official has been held accountable, and relatives of the victims and rights groups have blamed the disaster on a political class widely seen as inept.

Lebanese protest record devaluation of local currency
The Arab Weekly/January 26/2023
Protesters burned tyres and held up handfuls of local currency bills on Wednesday at the entrance of the Lebanese central bank in Beirut, furious over the spiralling devaluation of the lira. Lebanon’s economic meltdown, which began in 2019, has now cost the lira around 97% of its value. The decline has been particularly steep in January, dropping from 42,000 Lebanese lira per dollar to a new low of 56,000 this week. That has prompted demonstrations and short-lived street closures in Beirut this week, while a few dozen protesters gathering outside the Central Bank on Wednesday.
“I used to use this 16,000 Lebanese lira to buy a kilo of meat for me and my kids. Now 250 grams costs 100,000. Our kids are hungry, we’re hungry,” said Abu Ali, an older man from Lebanon’s south who was clutching a handful of Lebanese notes. Another man ripped up a dollar as protesters threw rocks at the Central Bank. Since the crisis began, Lebanese banks have severely restricted withdrawals of dollars and lira, also known as Lebanese pounds, measures that were never formalised by law but have become governed by circulars issued by the Lebanese Central Bank.
“Maybe the central bank governor will feel some empathy and stop these ignorant circulars at the expense of the depositors, which are masked haircuts and at the same time systemic theft of depositors’ funds,” said Saeed Suweihi, a member of advocacy group Depositors’ Outcry, which organised the protest.
Petrol prices also jumped on Wednesday to more than a million Lebanese pounds for a 20-litre tank, unaffordable for many of those earning in local currency. Lebanese central bank governor Riad Salameh in November said the official exchange rate, which has remained unchanged at 1,507 pounds despite becoming all-but obsolete, would change on February 1 to 15,000, the first official revaluation in 25 years. Salameh is under an international investigation in Europe on suspicions of financial misconduct including money laundering and embezzlement. Demonstrators held up posters calling Salameh "public enemy number one" and others saying: "We won't go hungry, we'll eat you," taking a jab at the country's ruling elite, the correspondents said. The Lebanese pound, which had already lost more than 95 percent of its value since 2019, plunged to nearly 56,000 to the US dollar on the parallel market, dealers said. The main official exchange rate still pegs the pound at 1,507 to the greenback, its value before the crisis.

Beirut blast victims’ relatives rally for embattled probe judge
Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 26, 2023
BEIRUT: Scores of protesters clashed with riot police in Beirut on Thursday as they tried to break into the chief offices of Lebanon’s judiciary after officials moved to cripple the probe into the massive port explosion that wreaked havoc on the capital city in 2020.
Several demonstrators were wounded as police pushed back crowds from outside Beirut’s Palace of Justice, beating people with batons. On Wednesday, Lebanon chief prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat ordered the release of all suspects detained in the investigation into the deadly port blast in Beirut, and filed charges against the judge leading the probe, Tarek Bitar. Among those released was an American citizen whose detention without trial had drawn threats of sanctions from US officials, and who promptly left Lebanon, circumventing a travel ban. Bitar on Monday resumed the investigation based on his legal interpretation, following a 13-month halt over legal challenges raised by politicians accused in the probe. He also charged more than a dozen senior political, judicial, and security officials, including Oueidat.
The recent developments have led to a standoff between the two judges, who each claim the other is breaking the law, crippling Lebanon’s judiciary, as the country’s cash-strapped institutions continue to decay.
Lebanon’s Higher Judicial Council failed to meet as scheduled on Thursday to discuss Bitar’s “judicial coup d’état.”
The council’s members said they avoided convening due to public pressure and MPs’ interference with the judiciary.During Thursday’s protests, MPs were hit and a lawyer was handcuffed by security officers. Hundreds of families of Beirut blast victims rallied near the Justice Palace to protest against a decision by the Higher Judicial Council to remove Bitar from the investigation. They expressed their anger at Oueidat, demanding his removal from the case and describing his move as “a scandal.”Willam Noun, spokesman for the families of the Beirut Port Blast victims, told Arab News: “It was an unexpected decision that we are not contented with. “We did not expect this absurdity. They are settling their scores with our martyrs’ blood.
“We prefer to find justice from our country’s judiciary, however, after what has happened, we call on an international investigation into the crime.”Peter Bou Saeb, a brother of one of the victims, said: “We were shocked by the decision to release the detainees.
“This case has turned into a confrontation between us and the judiciary; Let them deal with the consequences. The mother of victim Jack Baramakian, who held her son’s photo while weeping, said: “My son was guilty of being at home; We live opposite the explosion site, and seven of our neighbors died in our building. Who will do us justice?” Families held banners demanding the “overthrow of the police regime,” stressing that “justice will happen” and “failing to speak up is a crime.”They stood in solidarity with Bitar, who resumed his work despite the political disruption deterring his investigation into one of Lebanon’s biggest disasters.Families called on the Higher Judicial Council to protect the course of the investigation and put an end to political pressure on Bitar that aims to implement the agenda of the political class.
They held the security agencies responsible for the safety of the judge as well as private documents relating to the case.Some Reformist MPs joined the angry victims’ families and met caretaker Justice Minister Henri Khoury to discuss the move against Bitar. The meeting devolved into a heated exchange and state security officers, who are duty-bound to protect the minister, restrained the MPs. Angry protesters broke into the Ministry of Justice, throwing rocks and unlocking an access gate, allowing crowds to enter. However, riot police struck back by hitting demonstrators with batons, causing several injuries. Lawyer and activist Wassef Harake was seen handcuffed and dragged by security officers inside the justice palace building. MP Adib Abdel Massih told protesters that he was assaulted by security agents and had his phone seized. MP Paula Yaacoubian said: “This is a lunatic asylum and justice is being evaded.”MP Mark Daou said: “Oueidat’s move is a coup; This is not judicial work; it is political.” He denied that MPs interfered with the judiciary. Among those released by Oueidat was Beirut Port head of security Mohammad Ziad Al-Ouf, a dual US Lebanese citizen.
According to security and judiciary sources, several Lebanese citizens received messages from the US warning that they will be subject to the Robert Levinson Hostage Recovery and Hostage-Taking Accountability Act if fail to address the fate of American national Al-Ouf, who was detained without trial for two and a half years. “Arbitrary arrest rules apply to Al-Ouf and his file has reached Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, and currently awaits his signature,” the message said. In the event that Blinken signs the file, sanctions will be imposed on the Lebanese state, and penalties will be imposed on those who interfered with the case, including judges and ministers. Activist Nizar Zakka, who was wrongfully detained in Iranian prisons for years, tweeted: “US citizen Ziad Al-Ouf, freed from unlawful detention in Lebanon for more than two years, is thankfully on his way home to the US. “He will finally be reunited with his family.”A photo of Al-Ouf smiling onboard a plane next to his family circulated on Wednesday night shortly after his release. Oueidat imposed a travel ban on detainees who were released, justifying his move to journalists on Thursday, saying: “Implementing a travel ban requires five hours.”

'Not Hezbollah's candidate': Franjieh wants to be 'consensual' president
Naharnet January 26, 2023
Marada leader chief Suleiman Franjieh met Thursday with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi in Bkerki. "I'm not Hezbollah's candidate, I'm seeking to be a consensual candidate," Franjieh said. He added that he would accept to be elected with 65 votes, and that he would announce his candidacy once he senses that he can secure enough votes. "I don't want to be a confrontational president," Franjieh said, asking if MP and presidential candidate Michel Mouawwad is consensual. Franjieh said he is not against Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun but is wondering what is his political project. He went on to say that Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has his reasons for rejecting him, "as matters are beyond his capacity."

UK defense senior advisor conducts visit to Lebanon
Naharnet January 26, 2023
The UK Defense Senior Advisor to the Middle East and North Africa (DSAME) Air Marshal Martin Sampson conducted a three-day visit to Lebanon from 23 to 25 January. During the visit, he met with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Commander in Chief of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) General Joseph Aoun. He was accompanied by the British Ambassador to Lebanon, Hamish Cowell, and the UK’s Defense Attaché Lt. Colonel Lee Saunders. At the UNIFIL Headquarters in Naqoura, Sampson toured the Blue Line and underlined the UK’s “full support for UNIFIL’s work in south Lebanon, as mandated in UN Resolution 1701, and offered his condolences following the tragic death of Private Sean Rooney,” the British embassy said in a statement. He was accompanied by the UK’s new Deputy Head of Mission, Camilla Nickless. Sampson also met the inspiring Lebanese endurance athlete Michael Haddad. He was “inspired to hear about Mr Haddad’s ambitious plan to walk 100 kilometers across the North Pole later this year, in order to draw attention to the devastating impact of climate change,” the statement said. British Ambassador Cowell for his part said: “It is a pleasure to welcome Air Marshal Sampson to Lebanon. The longstanding cooperation and partnership between the UK’s Armed Forces and the Lebanese Armed Forces makes a significant contribution to Lebanon’s security, sovereignty and prosperity. The UK will continue to do all we can to support this, including through our agreement last month for a further £13 million commitment to support the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).”“I also take this opportunity to express my admiration for Michael Haddad’s achievements. He is an inspirational role model. I wish him the best of luck in his upcoming North Pole expedition,” Cowell added. Sampson meanwhile said: “It was an important visit to Lebanon, hearing about the impact of the severe economic crisis on the Lebanese people in general and the Lebanese Armed Forces in particular. I admire the courage and resilience of the Lebanese people and that of the LAF in face of adversity. The UK remains committed to strengthening our bilateral cooperation between our two countries and supporting the LAF’s resilience.”“I conveyed my condolences and support to UNIFIL over the tragic incident which resulted in the tragic death of Private Sean Rooney and injured three others. We reiterated the UK’s position that the perpetrators must be held to account. UNIFIL's mandate and operations in South Lebanon are important to stability and security for Lebanon and the region,” he added.

HRW, Amnesty Int'l call for UN fact-finding mission into port blast
Agence France Presse January 26, 2023
Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have called on the United Nations Human Rights Council to "urgently pass a resolution to create an impartial fact-finding mission into the Beirut port explosion". "It is patently clear that the Lebanese authorities are determined to obstruct justice," Amnesty's Aya Majzoub said in the joint statement, after Lebanon's top prosecutor in the politically charged case, Judge Ghassan Oueidat, charged Beirut port blast investigator Judge Tarek Bitar on Wednesday and summoned him for questioning on Thursday morning. Relatives of the dead have been holding monthly vigils, seeking justice and accountability over the disaster, which they blame on an entrenched political class widely seen as inept and corrupt. Lawyer Cecile Roukoz, who lost her brother in the explosion, called the situation "madness". Oueidat on Wednesday ordered the "release of all those detained over the Beirut port explosion case, without exception" and banned them from travel. Those ordered released include the port chief and the head of customs Badri Daher. "The investigating judge is supposed to decide if (detainees) are released and the prosecutor general who takes the action," lawyer Roukoz said. "They are doing the opposite." Lawyer and activist Nizar Saghieh said Oueidat had "no authority" to release the detainees and that his moves were akin to "crowning the port explosion case with impunity". For Paul Najjar, who lost his three-year-old daughter in the blast, releasing all of the detainees means "Lebanon has become a total failed state".

Central bank freezes accounts of US-sanctioned individuals
Agence France Presse January 26, 2023
Lebanon's central bank said Thursday it has frozen the accounts of a foreign exchange trader and his sons, after they were sanctioned by the U.S. this week over links to Hezbollah. The central bank "took a decision to freeze all the accounts" of Hassan Moukalled as well as those of his sons Rayyan and Rani and two businesses that he owns, it said in a statement.

Bassil warns against 'bypassing' Christians in presidential vote
Naharnet/ January 26, 2023
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil met with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Wednesday evening after which he warned against “bypassing the Christian component” in the presidential vote. “There can be no solution except through the election of a president,” Bassil said from Bkirki after the talks. “There can be no solution except through dialogue and there can be no election except through consensus,” he added. “That’s why we reiterate our call for dialogue and rapprochement with everyone and Bkirki is the most appropriate place for such a dialogue,” Bassil went on to say. Noting that the presidential post is for all Lebanese, the FPM chief, however, stressed that “no one can bypass the Christian component in it.” “We will not allow such attempts to pass,” he emphasized. Bassil added: “We view any remarks about bypassing the Christian component with a lot of negativity.”
And noting that “Christians should seek to have their main say in this juncture,: Bassil said that “the initiative remains in the hand of the patriarch” and that the FPM “will cooperate with any such initiative.” Bassil’s remarks come a day after MP Ali Hassan Khalil said that Hezbollah and the Amal Movement are willing to push for Suleiman Franjieh’s election as president with 65 votes even if he does not win the support of any of the two main Christian blocs – the FPM and the Lebanese Forces.

Anger soars in Beirut amid standoff over port blast probe
FADI TAWIL and KAREEM CHEHAYEB/BEIRUT (AP)/Thu, January 26, 2023
Scores of protesters Thursday scuffled with riot police in Beirut as they tried to break into the chief offices of Lebanon's judiciary, after officials moved to cripple the probe into a massive port explosion that wreaked havoc on the capital city.
Several demonstrators were wounded as police pushed the crowds back from outside Beirut's historical Palace of Justice, and beat some people with batons. Lebanon's chief prosecutor Ghassan Oweidat Wednesday ordered the release of all suspects detained in the investigation into the deadly 2020 port blast in Beirut and filed charges against the judge leading the probe, Tarek Bitar.
Bitar on Monday resumed the investigation based on his legal interpretation, following a 13-month halt over legal challenges raised by politicians accused in the probe. He also charged over a dozen senior political, judicial, and security officials, including Oweidat.
The recent developments have led to a standoff between the two judges, who each claim the other is breaking the law, crippling the country's judiciary, as its cash-strapped institutions continue to decay.
The probe has stalled for years, as it threatens to rattle Lebanon’s ruling elite, which is rife with corruption and mismanagement, and has helped push the country into an unprecedented economic meltdown.
Hundreds of tons of highly explosive ammonium nitrate, a material used in fertilizers, detonated at Beirut Port on Aug. 4, 2020, killing 218 people, injuring over 6,000 and damaging large parts of the Lebanese capital. Bitar told The Associated Press Wednesday that he will go on with the investigation “even if it is going to cost me my life”, and will only stop if the authorities formally remove him from the investigation.
Lebanon’s highest judicial body, the Higher Judicial Council, was scheduled to meet Thursday afternoon to discuss the latest developments in the inquest, but canceled due to a lack of quorum. Oweidat was in the building but failed to join the council and stayed in his office guarded by armored security forces, who later escorted him out. Advocates for Bitar, which include most of the families of the blast victims, feared the judicial meeting would have issued a decision to remove the maverick judge from the probe.
Protesters, including relatives of the victims of the explosion, chanted slogans against Oweidat and senior officials, and tried to break into the Palace of Justice. Security forces also arrested an activist lawyer, Wassif Harakeh, but released him shortly after.
Activist William Noun, who lost his brother in the fatal port explosion, called for an international investigation to replace the stalled Lebanese probe. “What happened yesterday was pathetic,” Noun told the AP. “We want an international investigation, or the judiciary should either give us a solution after the meeting, or say they can't handle the case anymore and leave matters into our own hands.”
Chaos also ensued inside the Justice Palace, after over a dozen legislators from reformist and traditional opposition parties met with caretaker Justice Minister Henri Khoury. The heated meeting about the recent developments in the Beirut port probe led to scuffles with the minister’s guards who allegedly tried to snatch their phones as they filmed the meeting. Some of them say they were attacked, and have called for Khoury to resign.“These aren’t guards, these are the dogs of the justice minister,” opposition parliamentarian Adib Abdelmassih told the press after leaving the Justice Palace. “We were talking about the law in a civilized way and the parliamentarians were giving their opinions on the matter.”
Reformist legislator Ibrahim Mneimeh told the AP that Justice Minister Khoury said he will take a position based on what happens at the council's meeting. “We told him that Lebanon is at a significant crossroads, the judiciary has shattered, and he has a responsibility to restore matters within his prerogatives,” Mneimneh explained. “In my opinion, this indicates that the probe and justice are threatened, and that this case could be terminated.”

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 26-27/2023
Israel Urges NATO to Confront Iran’s Threat
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 26 January, 2023
Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Thursday urged the NATO military alliance to toughen its approach to Iran, as Tehran supplies drones to Russia for its war on Ukraine. "The crisis there goes beyond the boundaries of Ukraine, with the Iranian threat now at Europe's doorstep," Herzog said on a visit to NATO headquarters in Brussels. "The illusion of distance can no longer hold. NATO must take the strongest possible stance against the Iranian regime including through economic, legal and political sanctions and credible military deterrence." The figurehead leader became on Thursday the first Israeli president to brief NATO's main decision-making body. Members of the Western alliance have pressed Israel to take a firmer stance against Russia over the war in Ukraine. But Israel has refused to arm Kyiv as it is afraid of angering Moscow, which plays a key role in its neighbor Syria. "A terrible war continues to cause needless human suffering and compromise the well-being and welfare of millions," Herzog said, without explicitly condemning Russia. "Our hearts continue to go out to the people of Ukraine as they defend their homes and their country," AFP quoted him as saying. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said he had discussed "our support for Ukraine" with Herzog. "The Ukrainian people are bravely defending their homeland and NATO allies and partners are helping to support their right to self defense," he said. The NATO secretary general said Herzog's visit was a sign of the US-led alliance's "deepening partnership" with Israel. Herzog pointed to bolstering cooperation on cyber-security, threats from space, drones, and energy resilience. He said the two sides were slated to sign a new cooperation agreement "in just a couple of months, which lengthens the period of cooperation and expands it reach."

Paris: Franco-Irish Citizen Held in Iran Must be Freed Immediately
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 26 January, 2023
Bernard Phelan, a Franco-Irish citizen detained in Iran, must be released immediately and provided access to urgent medical care, the Foreign Ministry in Paris said on Thursday. "The denial of medical access by Iranian authorities is unacceptable", Foreign Ministry spokesperson Anne-Claire Legendre told journalists, adding France was very concerned about Phelan's poor health condition. Phelan, a Paris-based tourism consultant, was jailed in Iran in October. Phelan is being held in Vakilabad Prison in Mashhad city on multiple charges, including disseminating anti-regime propaganda and taking pictures of security services. Phelan has denied all the charges. The family of Louis Arnaud, a 35-year-old French national, who had been in Iran on tourism, on Thursday made public that their son had been arrested on Sept. 28 and was being held in Tehran's notorious Evin prison. In recent years, Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards have arrested dozens of dual nationals and foreigners, mostly on charges related to espionage and security. Rights groups have accused Iran of trying to extract concessions from other countries through such arrests. Iran, which does not recognize dual nationality, denies taking prisoners to gain diplomatic leverage. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna on Wednesday spoke to her Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian demanding the release of all the prisoners. Some 40 Europeans are held in Iran. Speaking in Brussels on Monday, Colonna said she wanted a collective European response to deal with the matter.

Analysis: Stakes rise as Iran can fuel 'several' atom bombs
JON GAMBRELL/DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/January 26, 2023
Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to build “several” nuclear weapons if it chooses, the United Nations' top nuclear official is now warning. But diplomatic efforts aimed at again limiting its atomic program seem more unlikely than ever before as Tehran arms Russia in its war on Ukraine and as unrest shakes the Islamic Republic. The warning from Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in response to questions from European lawmakers this week, shows just how high the stakes have become over Iran's nuclear program. Even at the height of previous tensions between the West and Iran under hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad before the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran never enriched uranium as high as it does now.
For months, nonproliferation experts have suggested Iran had enough uranium enriched up to 60% to build at least one nuclear weapon — though Tehran long has insisted its program is for peaceful purposes. While offering a caveat on Tuesday that “we need to be extremely careful” in describing Iran's program, Grossi bluntly acknowledged just how large Tehran's high-enriched uranium stockpile had grown.
“One thing is true: They have amassed enough nuclear material for several nuclear weapons, not one at this point,” Grossi said.
The Argentine diplomat then referred to Benjamin Netanyahu's famous 2012 speech to the United Nations, in which the Israeli prime minister held up a placard of a cartoon-style bomb with a burning wick and drew a red line on it to urge the world to not allow Tehran's program to highly enrich uranium. While the 2015 nuclear deal drastically reduced Iran's uranium stockpile and capped its enrichment to 3.67%, Netanyahu successfully lobbied then-President Donald Trump to withdraw from the accord and set up the current tensions.
“You remember there was to be this issue of the breakthrough and Mr. Netanyahu drawing things at the U.N. and putting lines — well, that is long past. They have 70 kilograms (155 pounds) of uranium enriched at 60%. ... The amount is there," Grossi said. "That doesn't mean they have a nuclear weapon. So they haven't proliferated yet.”
But the danger remains. Analysts point to what happened with North Korea, which had reached a 1994 deal with the U.S. to abandon its nuclear weapons program. The deal fell apart in 2002. By 2005 and wary of U.S. intentions after its invasion of Iraq, Pyongyang announced it had built nuclear weapons. Today, North Korea has ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads that are capable of reaching the U.S.
Iran's mission to the U.N. did not immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday on Grossi's remarks and authorities in Tehran did not directly acknowledge them. However, Iranian state television quoted Mohammad Eslami, the head of the country's civilian nuclear program, on Thursday as saying Tehran would welcome a visit by Grossi to the country.
Iranian diplomats for years have pointed to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s preachings as a binding fatwa, or religious edict, that Iran wouldn’t seek an atomic bomb. However, Iranian officials in recent months have begun openly talking about the prospect of building nuclear weapons.
Talks between Iran and the West ended in August with a “final text” of a roadmap on restoring the 2015 deal that Iran until today hasn't accepted. As Iran's rial currency plunges further to historic lows against the dollar, Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian make unsupported claims about American officials agreeing to their demands or frozen money abroad being released.
At the State Department, the denials about Iran's claims have grown more and more pointed.
“We’ve heard a number of statements from the Iranian foreign minister that are dubious if not outright lies, so I would just keep that broader context in mind when you point to statements from the Iranian foreign minister," State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Monday in a response to a question. Price and others in President Joe Biden's administration say any future talks with Iran remain off the table as Tehran cracks down on the months-long protests after the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman detained in September by the country's morality police. At least 527 people have been killed and over 19,500 arrested amid the unrest, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group monitoring the protests.nAnother part of the Americans' exasperation — and increasingly of the Europeans as well — comes from Iran arming Russia with the bomb-carrying drones that repeatedly have targeted power plants and civilian targets across Ukraine. It remains unclear what Tehran, which has a strained history with Moscow, expects to get for supplying Russia with arms. One Iranian lawmaker has suggested the Islamic Republic could get Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets to replace its aging fleeting comprised primarily of pre-1979 American warplanes, though such a deal hasn't been confirmed.
Such fighter jets would provide a key air defense for Iran, particularly as its nuclear sites could increasingly be eyed. Israel, which has carried out strikes to halt nuclear programs in Iraq and Syria, has warned it will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear bomb.
The U.S. and Israel also launched its largest-ever joint air, land and sea exercise this week called Juniper Oak that the Pentagon described as “not meant to be oriented around any single adversary or threat.” However, it comes amid the heightened tensions with Iran and includes aerial refueling, targeting and suppressing enemy air defenses — capabilities that would be crucial in conducting airstrikes. For now, Grossi said there was “almost no diplomatic activity” over trying to restore the Iran nuclear deal, an agreement he now describes as “an empty shell.” But he still urged more diplomacy as Tehran still would need to design and test any possible nuclear weapon. “We shouldn't give up,” he said.
*EDITOR’S NOTE — Jon Gambrell, the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the world since joining the AP in 2006. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/jongambrellAP.

Iranian chess player refuses to film apology video for removing hijab
Arab News/January 26/2023
LONDON: An Iranian chess player who played in a tournament without a hijab told The Telegraph that she fled to Spain after refusing an order by Tehran to film an apology video. Sara Khadem is the world’s 17th best female chess player and the first Iranian woman to become an international master. A viral photograph of Khadem competing in a tournament in Kazakhstan without a head covering made her a symbol of the country’s ongoing anti-regime protests. The 25-year-old said she was told to blame her decision to not cover her head during the tournament on Western pressure. “I wasn’t going to do that,” Khadem said. Although she previously only covered her head at international tournaments during formal presentations and official photographs, she began to feel that it was hypocritical. “This time, I felt that if I did as I was doing before, I would be disrespecting the people,” she said. Khadem has been outspoken against her country’s government in recent years. In 2019, she expressed support for a young Iranian chess star who had refused to accept Tehran’s policy requiring players to forfeit matches against Israeli opponents. In January 2020, Khadem announced her retirement from the national chess team in protest of Iran’s shooting down of a Ukrainian commercial plane, an incident that claimed the lives of 176 people. She also used hashtags to express solidarity with anti-regime protesters in the wake of Mahsa Amini’s death. Khadem, who is still in Spain with her husband and son, says she misses her parents back home, whom she said she used to visit “almost every day.”“I hope that I will be the only one held responsible for what I did,” she said. “We feel very welcome in Spain, but we have left some of the most important things in life in Iran, so there are mixed feelings,” she added. Khadem hopes to break into the world’s top 10 from her new base in Spain, but she also wants to represent Iran in tournaments as an individual player, The Telegraph reported. “I’m a chess player. I’m not a political figure. As a chess player, I have some responsibilities towards what is happening around me, but chess is the first thing in my life. I don’t see myself

Palestinians say Israeli troops kill 9 in West Bank raid
JENIN REFUGEE CAMP, West Bank (AP)/January 26, 2023
Israeli forces killed at least nine Palestinians, including a 60-year-old woman, and wounded several others during a raid in a flashpoint area of the occupied West Bank on Thursday, Palestinian officials said, in the deadliest day in years in the territory.
A gun battle broke out when the Israeli military conducted a rare daytime operation in the Jenin refugee camp that it said was meant to prevent an imminent attack against Israelis. The camp, where the Palestinian Islamic Jihad militant group has a major foothold, has been a focus of nearly a year of Israeli arrest raids.At least one of the dead was identified by Palestinians as a militant, but it was not clear how many others were affiliated with armed groups.
Tensions between Israelis and Palestinians have soared since Israel launched the nightly raids in the West Bank last spring, following a spate of Palestinian attacks. The conflict has only intensified this month, as Israel’s far-right government came to office and pledged to take a hard line against the Palestinians.
Amid the spike in violence, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to arrive in the region in the coming days and push for steps that might improve daily life for the Palestinians.
Images published by Palestinian media showed the charred exterior walls of a two-story building and cinderblocks and other debris scattered on a street. The military said it entered the building in order to detonate explosives it said were being used by the suspects.
After troops withdrew from the area following the three-hour operation, several cars were overturned, their windshields and windows shattered as residents milled about inspecting the damage.
Palestinian Health Minister May Al-Kaila said paramedics struggled to reach the wounded during the fighting, while Akram Rajoub, the governor of Jenin, said the military prevented emergency workers from evacuating the wounded.
Both officials accused the military of firing tear gas at the pediatric ward of a hospital, causing children to choke. Video from the hospital showed women carrying children into a corridor of the hospital.
The military said forces closed roads to facilitate their operation, which may have complicated the efforts of rescue teams, and that tear gas had likely wafted into the hospital from the clashes nearby.
Jenin hospital identified the woman killed as Magda Obaid and the Israeli military said it was looking into reports of her death. The Palestinian Health Ministry earlier identified another one of the dead as Saeb Azriqi, 24, who was brought to a hospital in critical condition after being shot, and died from his wounds. And the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade — an armed militia affiliated with Fatah, the secular political party that controls the Palestinian Authority — claimed one of the dead, Izz al-Din Salahat, as a fighter. The ministry said at least 20 people were wounded.
Internationally-backed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas declared three days of mourning and ordered flags to fly at half-staff. Palestinian officials called on the international community to speak out.
“We ask that the international community help the Palestinians against this extremist right-wing government and protect our citizens,” Rajoub, the Jenin governor, said.
The U.N.'s Middle East envoy Tor Wennesland said he was “deeply alarmed and saddened” by the violence and called for calm. Condemnations came from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and Turkey, which recently reestablished full diplomatic ties with Israel, as well as from neighboring Jordan and the militant Islamic Hamas group that rules the Gaza Strip.
Tensions over violence in the West Bank have in the past spilled into Gaza. “The response of the resistance to what happened today in Jenin camp will not be delayed,” warned top Hamas official Saleh Arouri.
The Islamic Jihad branch in the coastal enclave has repeatedly fought against Israel, most recently in a fierce three-day clash last summer that killed dozens of Palestinians and disrupted the lives of hundreds of thousands of Israelis. Nearly 150 Palestinians were killed in the West Bank and east Jerusalem last year, making 2022 the deadliest in those territories since 2004, according to the Israeli rights group B'Tselem. So far this year, 29 Palestinians have been killed.
Israel says most of the dead were militants. But youths protesting the incursions and others not involved in the confrontations have also been killed. So far this year, not including Thursday, one-third of the Palestinians killed by Israeli troops or civilians had ties to armed groups. Some 30 people were killed in Palestinian attacks against Israelis last year. Israel says its raids are meant to dismantle militant networks and thwart attacks. The Palestinians say they further entrench Israel’s 55-year, open-ended occupation of the West Bank, which Israel captured along with east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip in the 1967 Mideast war. The Palestinians claim those territories for their hoped-for state. Israel's new far-right government, headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and propped up by ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox parties, has pledged to put West Bank settlement expansion at the top of its priority list and has already announced a series of punitive steps against the Palestinians for pushing the U.N.’s highest judicial body to give its opinion on the Israeli occupation. Israel has already established dozens of settlements in the West Bank, which are now home to some 500,000 people.
The Palestinians and much of the international community view settlements as illegal and an obstacle to peace, even as negotiations to end the conflict have been moribund for more than a decade.
*Goldenberg reported from Tel Aviv, Israel. Associated Press writers Areej Hazboun and Isabel DeBre in Jerusalem, Jon Gambrell in Dubai and Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, contributed to this report.
*Majdi Mohammed And Tia Goldenberg, The Associated Press

Blinken will hold his first in-person talks with Netanyahu since the leader returned to power
Reuters/January 26, 2023
WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel next week to Israel, the West Bank and Egypt where he will urge an end to violence after a deadly Israeli raid, the State Department said Thursday. Blinken will hold his first in-person talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since the veteran leader returned to power leading Israel’s most right-wing government in history. He will also meet in Ramallah with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas on his visit Monday and Tuesday. Blinken “will underscore the urgent need for the parties to take steps to de-escalate tensions in order to put an end to the cycle of violence that has claimed too many innocent lives,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said. Blinken will first on Sunday visit Egypt, a key intermediary between the Israelis and Palestinians which has succeeded in maintaining cordial ties with the administration of President Joe Biden despite his vows to get tougher due to human rights concerns. Blinken will discuss regional issues including Libya and Sudan and meet President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, the State Department said. The trip, while long in the planning, comes after a major flare-up in violence. Nine Palestinians were killed Thursday in an Israeli raid on a crowded refugee camp in the West Bank city of Jenin, officials in the occupied territory said. Netanyahu has a fraught relationship with Biden’s Democratic Party, openly campaigning against previous president Barack Obama’s Iran policy, and Biden has been determined to start off on a good foot with his latest government. Blinken’s trip follows a visit by Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, which was largely focused on Iran — which remains a top concern for Netanyahu. Blinken has repeatedly said that the Biden administration will judge Netanyahu’s government by “the policies they pursue, not the personalities” that are inside it.Those personalities include Itamar Ben-Gvir, who once hung a portrait in his home of a gunman who massacred Palestinian worshippers and now holds a national security post. Ben-Gvir in early January sparked international statements of concern as he visited the Al-Aqsa mosque compound, which is holy both to Jews and Muslims. The United States urged Israel to preserve the status quo at the ultra-sensitive religious site, which Jews call the Temple Mount. But despite the public concern over the far-right figures, Netanyahu appears to be succeeding so far in preserving normalization efforts with the Arab world, which he sees as one of his key achievements. Netanyahu flew Tuesday to Jordan, the second Arab nation after Egypt to recognize Israel, and held talks with King Abdullah II. The trip will be Blinken’s fourth to Jerusalem since becoming the top US diplomat. He first went in May 2021, months into his tenure, after violence between Israel and the Palestinian militants Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Russia fires dozens of missiles, drones at Ukraine
Agence France Presse/Wed, January 26/ 2023
Russian forces fired more than 30 missiles at targets across Ukraine early on Thursday, hours after two dozen Iran-made attack drones were shot down by air defenses, the Ukrainian military said. Ukrainian military spokesman Yuriy Ignat told local media that several Russian Tu-95 bombers had launched the missile attack from northern region of Murmansk. "We expect more than 30 missiles, which have already started to appear in various territories. Air defence systems are working," Ignat said. At least 15 were shot down. Earlier, Ukraine's air force said it had shot down a cluster of Iranian-made attack drones launched by Russian forces from the Sea of Azov in the south of the country. "Attack UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicle) were launched from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov. According to preliminary information, the enemy used 24 Shaheds. All 24 were destroyed," the Ukrainian air force said in a statement online. Since October, Russia has launched regular waves of aerial attacks against Ukraine, mainly targeting energy infrastructure. Those assaults have crippled the electricity grid and spurred Ukraine to boost its air defence systems with support from Kyiv's Western allies. The latest assault early on Thursday comes one day after Ukraine's Western allies, including Germany and the United States promised to provide Kyiv with modern tanks.

This is the M1 Abrams, the powerful American main battle tank the US is sending to Ukraine
Ryan Pickrel/Business Insider/Wed, January 26/ 2023
NATO allies and partners are sending lots of heavy armor to Ukraine.
After much debate over whether or not to send tanks, several different types have been promised to Kyiv.
The US is sending its powerful Abrams main battle tank.
The US has been sending Ukraine more and more weapons, promising Kyiv hard-hitting rocket artillery, formidable air defense systems followed by infantry fighting vehicles, and now, after some debate, it's agreed to send M1 Abrams tanks.
Senior Pentagon officials said last week the US was not ready to send these, arguing that the "Abrams tank is a very complicated piece of equipment" that is expensive, difficult to maintain, and hard to train on, but this week, the US joined partners in Europe in offering Ukraine tanks.
The British Challengers, German-made Leopards, and American Abrams are modern battle tanks with superior capabilities compared to those of the Soviet-era tanks Ukraine has relied on and provide the kind of mobile firepower and shock effect necessary to break through enemy lines and enable new offensives at a time when the front has become largely static.
Ukraine's defense ministry humorously suggested renaming the Abrams a "recreational utility vehicle" to alleviate any potential US concerns about sending tanks, but this heavy tracked vehicle is a tank and one of the most capable in the world.
The M1 Abrams tank, a heavy armor product of what is now General Dynamics Land Systems but was Chrysler Defense, was developed in the 1970s as a replacement for the Army's older M60 tanks. It first entered service in 1980, but it didn't see combat until the Gulf War in the early 1990s.
Just over 2,000 Abrams tanks were deployed with combat units during the war, and only 23 were damaged or destroyed. Of the nine that were destroyed, none were lost as a result of enemy action.
A Government Accountability Office report on the performance of the Abrams tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles in that conflict said that Abrams crews reported taking direct frontal hits from Soviet-era T-72s and sustaining only minor damage.
In the aftermath of the Gulf War, the US military developed the M1A2 Abrams, which has steadily been upgraded over the past two decades. The Abrams tank also saw extensive combat early in the Iraq War and was used to some extent in Afghanistan.
The modern M1A2 weighs more than 70 tons, is powered by the AGT1500 gas turbine engine providing 1,500 horsepower for speeds up to 42 mph, and is armed with a 120mm main gun, a M2 .50 caliber machine gun, and a pair of M240 7.62mm machine guns.
Crewed by a team of four soldiers, specifically the gunner, loader, driver, and commander, the Abrams can deliver the mobility, firepower, and, perhaps most importantly, shock effect needed to exploit weak points in enemy lines and pursue offensive breakthroughs.
When engaging the enemy, the Abrams is protected by Chobham composite armor improved with depleted uranium meshing. Its protection can be upgraded with explosive reactive armor blocks.
General Dynamics Land Systems is currently in the process of developing the next-generation Abrams, the so-called Abrams X main battle tank, which will rely on a smaller crew supported by artificial intelligence to deliver increased combat capability with better fuel efficiency.
The US has, until now, been hesitant to send these tanks, pointing to the complicated maintenance and operational difficulties.
Jeffrey Edmonds, a Russia expert at the Center for Naval Analyses and former US Army armor officer, told Insider last week that the US should do what it needs to do to get Abrams tanks to Ukraine, but he acknowledged that there are hurdles that make it a challenge.
"The maintenance problem, with all it's components, that is the real challenge," Edmonds said, pointing to the thousands of tiny parts, some of which are essential to keeping the vehicle running properly, that Ukraine has to be able to get its hands on and use in the field.
"The other thing that people don't really talk about is how well the crews will be trained and how well they use the tanks," he said, noting that "fighting in a tank is kind of an art."
But if Ukraine can maintain and operate them properly, "they're great for the Ukrainian force," Edmonds said, explaining that "the whole reason tanks were created was to make a static situation fluid."
The situation along the front lines in Ukraine is brutal, with battles turning into grinding exchanges of artillery with minimal gains on either side. Powerful modern tanks like the Abrams, Leopards, and Challengers the Ukrainians have sought, along with all the other armor and weaponry heading that way, could be just what Kyiv needs to fuel an offensive and break through Russian lines, but that remains to be seen. The US has said it will send Ukraine 31 Abrams tanks, as well as the equipment and parts necessary to sustain them, but it will likely be months before these arrive on the battlefield.

Can climate change lose Russia the war in Ukraine?
Devika Rao/The Week/January 26, 2023
Russia's exports of oil and natural gas have long been used as a "weapon of financial war" against Ukraine. However, an unlikely ally has entered the mix on Ukraine's side: climate change. Here's everything you need to know:
What kind of hold does Russia have on the energy market?
Russia is the third-largest producer and the second-largest exporter of oil. Europe, in particular, has been especially reliant on Russia for its energy needs. In 2021, over half of Russian oil exports went to Europe, accounting for approximately one-third of Europe's oil imports, per the International Energy Agency.
Since Russia's war on Ukraine began, the country's oil exports had been overall maintained, however, there has been a marked decrease in exports to the European Union. Some of the difference was made up by increased exports to India, China, and Turkey, but the West's sanctions on Russia have begun to take their toll.
"The EU's oil ban and the oil price cap have finally kicked in and the impact is as significant as expected," said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. "It's essential to lower the price cap to a level that denies taxable oil profits to the Kremlin, and to restrict the remaining oil and gas imports from Russia."
As for natural gas, Russia gradually reduced its exports to the EU after the beginning of the war as a "weapon of financial war," as described by The Wall Street Journal. By Oct. 2022, Russian pipeline deliveries were down 80 percent from the previous year. This is largely due to Russia cutting deliveries through the YAMAL-Europe and Nord Stream pipelines.
Russia has used its natural gas exports as leverage in the war against Ukraine hoping to use the winter to its advantage, but climate change may actually be playing a part in assisting Ukraine and the West.
How is climate change affecting the war?
One of the biggest consequences of climate change is the overall warming of global temperatures. This is due to greenhouse gases like CO2 trapping excess heat in the atmosphere. Per NASA, 2022 was the fifth-warmest year to date.
As a result, what would normally be a brutally cold winter has become more tolerable, requiring less Russian energy to heat homes in Europe. "There's a traditional view in Russia that one of its best assets in warfare is general winter," explains Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House. "Russia was counting on a winter freeze to bring Europe to its senses and convince publics across the continent that support for Ukraine was not worth the pain in their wallets."
The country hoped that the cold would reduce global support for Ukraine in exchange for access to Russian energy. "Because of sanctions, the Russian economy becomes ever more dependent on energy exports," said Thane Gustafson, professor at Georgetown University.
"The lack of foreign…investment, technology and money and experience of more difficult geographies and regions is just going to over time whittle away at the ability of the Russian oil sector to maintain production," said James Henderson, a researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
A former U.K. government energy official Adam Bell says the warmer temperatures essentially "bought Europe a year" of maintained resistance to Russia. "A colder December and January would have eaten through a lot of Europe's gas stockpiles, which could have led to a physical shortage of molecules," he said. However, the benefits won't last forever.
"More work needs to be done in efficiency. Homes and businesses need buildings that waste less energy through insulation. Companies need to switch manufacturing processes away from natural gas," Bell remarked.
How is Russia prompting the energy transition?
Climate change has prompted a greater push toward renewable energy. While the warmer winter requires less heating, the world is also aware that warm winters are not a good sign for the planet. Along with the potential ecological consequences, Europe is prompted to reduce reliance on Russian oil and gas in general.
In December, EU leaders moved to make permitting for solar and wind plants faster and easier as a response to the war and sanctions against Russia. "The emergency regulation is an important [step] to accelerate renewable energy deployment, including in onshore wind," Susannah Wood, the Europe Vice President of Public Affairs at Norwegian developer Statkraft, told Reuters.
European solar power grew by 50 percent in 2022, reports EuroNews. Germany installed the most solar energy in the EU, a remarkable increase given that Germany was the largest oil purchaser in Europe previously. "Europe's vulnerability that was suddenly exposed existed because of a longstanding complacency by Western powers," says Giles. "This complacency left Russia with multiple open goals to kick at in major Western European capitals, most notably Germany,"
An unlikely ally, climate change, as put by CNN, "is robbing Putin of a trump card."

Why Turkey is blocking NATO's expansion
Joel Mathis, Contributing Writer/The Week/January 26, 2023
The expansion of NATO is going … haltingly. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland have applied to join the military alliance that includes the United States and much of Western Europe. But the process has hit a stumbling block. The Associated Press reports that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week said Sweden "can no longer expect any charity from us regarding their NATO membership application" after right-wing protesters burned a Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm. Finland's foreign minister followed that by suggesting his country could join the alliance without Sweden if necessary. Why is Turkey opposed to NATO expansion? And how might this affect the war in Europe? Here's everything you need to know:
Why do Finland and Sweden want to join NATO?
One word: Russia. Finland shares a long border with Russia, and Sweden sits on the Baltic Sea where much of the Russian Navy operates. But both were longtime holdouts against joining the military alliance — they were officially neutral throughout the Cold War — until Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade another neighbor, Ukraine, in 2022. "Public support for NATO membership in the Nordic countries shot up virtually overnight after the start of the invasion," Axios reports. The two countries jointly applied for membership in May 2022. "Everything has changed when Russia attacked Ukraine," Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said at the time. "And I personally think that we cannot trust anymore there will be a peaceful future next to Russia."
What's the holdup?
NATO can't add new countries without approval from the government of every single country in the alliance. That wasn't a big deal when NATO had just 12 members, but now there are 30 countries in the organization. (In the United States, that requirement means two-thirds of the Senate must approve such applications: That happened by a 95-1 vote in August.) That means any single country can slow down the process if it chooses. "Joining NATO was never meant to be this hard, but because the alliance is now so big it just complicates things because you have to get 30 different leaders lined up and on the same page and 30 different legislatures lined up on the same page," The Atlantic Council's Christopher Skaluba tells The Hill.
Who are the holdouts?
Turkey and Hungary, but Hungary is expected to approve the applications this year. Erdogan, meanwhile, wants Sweden to "do more to tackle terrorist support among a Kurdish population of about 100,000, and to extradite suspects," Bloomberg reports. The Financial Times adds that Turkey wants Sweden to cut ties with Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) — a Kurdish militia that led the campaign against ISIS in Syria, but which also has ties to the Kurdistan Workers' party (PKK) that has waged an insurgency against Turkey since 1980. Sweden has tried to "distance itself" from the offending group, Reuters reports. (And it has also lifted an arms embargo against Turkey.). But it hasn't extradited the suspects that Turkey seeks.
What is the U.S. doing?
The United States, of course, is first among equals in the NATO alliance — so you would expect American leaders to push Turkey toward approving Sweden and Finland's applications. Indeed, U.S. and Turkish officials met in mid-January to discuss both NATO and other "defense cooperation" topics. EuroNews reports that Turkey made clear that it wants to upgrade its fleet of U.S.-made F-16 jet fighters. But Voice of America says complying with that request might not be so simple: Congress has to approve the sale of fighters to Turkey — and NATO expansion won't be the only condition of approval. The U.S. also wants a promise that Turkey won't take military action in northern Syria. In other words: It's complicated.
How does this affect the war in Ukraine?
Bloomberg's editors say the holdup "puts Europe's wider security at risk." Both countries have "considerable" defense capabilities that could come in useful "at a time when the alliance's resources are stretched from assisting Ukraine." But Russian leaders seem to think that — despite the slow process — the addition of Finland and Sweden is a done deal: Valery Gerasimov, the top Russian general in Ukraine, says planned reforms to the military include the ability to respond to threats posed by "the aspirations of the North Atlantic Alliance to expand to Finland and Sweden."
What's next?
The future is still muddy. Pekka Haavisto, the Finnish foreign minister, reportedly "backpedaled" after suggesting his country might join NATO without Sweden at its side — though The Associated Press notes it was the first time an official in either country had "raised doubts" about joining the alliance together. A resolution might not be in the offing for a while yet: The Wall Street Journal reports that Turkey won't officially take up approval of NATO expansion until its national elections, most likely in May.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 26-27/2023
Iranian regime will not change while sanctions are ineffective
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 26/2023
One of the most effective ways to alter the destructive behavior and policies of a rogue state is to impose powerful political and economic sanctions, forcing it to change its calculations and priorities in order to survive. In Iran’s case, the objectives behind the sanctions are to cut off the flow of funds to the regime and significantly impact its efforts to advance its nuclear program and fund and sponsor terrorist and militia groups across the region. But if the sanctioned regime finds a path to circumvent the sanctions, not only will there be no change to its policies, but instead the rogue state will become more emboldened and empowered to continue with its destabilizing behavior. One key question to ask is: Why, in 2015, did the Iranian regime rush to reach a nuclear deal but is now refusing to halt its nuclear program and revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action? One of the most critical reasons lies in the fact that the sanctions in place before the 2015 nuclear deal worked effectively. Prior to 2015, the sanctions against the theocratic establishment of Iran were extremely successful for several reasons. First of all, the US was capable of convincing Russia and China to join in with imposing pressure on Tehran. This led to a consensus among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the UK, France, Russia, China and the US) that allowed it to pass several resolutions sanctioning Iran. The first, UNSC Resolution 1696, which was passed in 2006, called on Iran to “suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, including research and development,” with the International Atomic Energy Agency tasked with reporting on its compliance.
The US sanctions have become far less effective as more countries ignore and violate them. More importantly, all five permanent members of the UNSC also unanimously called on all countries to freeze the financial assets of Iranian entities linked to the nuclear program, as well as to sanction the supply or sale of nuclear-related equipment and technology. This led to Resolution 1803 of 2008, which imposed restrictions on Iranian bank transactions and called on countries to inspect Iranian ships and cargo planes where there were reasonable grounds to believe that the regime was smuggling prohibited products. For example, the regime has been repeatedly caught illegally smuggling weapons to its proxy in Yemen, the Houthis.
Unfortunately, Iran’s oil exports reached a new peak this month, in spite of the Biden administration’s sanctions. According to a report by Bloomberg: “While everyone looks at Russia, another oil-rich country under Western sanctions has quietly increased its production: Iran.” The story continued: “Iran’s oil exports are surging, offering solace to both Tehran and a global market fretting over the prospect of sanctions squeezing Russian supply. Much of it appears to be finding its way to China. The country’s oil exports surged to about 1.3 million barrels a day in November, and last month held near the highest in four years. Although the US sanctions under Donald Trump did have a negative impact on Iran’s economy for a while, they have become far less effective as more countries ignore and violate them — all while the Biden White House has not been taking any actions to deter, disincentivize or punish those who breach the sanctions. In fact, ever since President Joe Biden assumed office two years ago, Iran’s oil exports have been on the rise. In 2018 and 2019, they were significantly reduced to 100,000 to 200,000 barrels a day. But Iran is currently exporting more than 1 million barrels a day, with about 800,000 barrels of this going to China. Unfortunately, some of the US’ allies also appear to be freely trading with Tehran in spite of the American sanctions. “Iran and the European Union’s 27 member states traded €4.36 billion ($4.75 billion) worth of goods during the first 10 months of 2022, registering a 14.28 percent rise compared with last year’s corresponding period.” Mehr News Agency reported last month.
Mehr added that: “Germany was the top trading partner of Iran in the EU region during the period, as the two countries exchanged over €1.6 billion worth of goods, 15.44 percent more than in a similar period of the year before. Italy came next with €555.39 million worth of trade with Iran to register an 11.14 percent year-on-year rise … the Netherlands with €351.94 million (down 10.76 percent) and Spain with €296.06 million (up 13.12 percent) were Iran’s other major European trade partners.”In a nutshell, as long as the sanctions against Tehran are not cutting the flow of funds to the regime, the theocratic establishment will have no incentive to change its behavior and will continue to defy international law and advance its nuclear program.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Reading Putin’s mind...What must the Russian dictator be thinking?
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/January 26/2023
I’ve begun talking to myself. Not good. But who else can I talk to? I’m surrounded by fools and incompetents. Yes, there are those who defend me and the special military operation I initiated a year ago next month to restore Russia’s dignity, power, and glory. But how many of them are just hungry for crumbs from my table?
Half a million young Russians have now fled rather than fight for the Fatherland. There was a time when traitors were not allowed to just pack up and leave. Maybe it’s time to enforce such rules again.
I need to be honest with myself: The Ukrainians have surprised me. When I took Crimea back from their sweaty hands nine years ago, they just whined and licked their wounds.
This time they’re fighting like grizzly bears. And my generals – they failed me. I should have shot a few right away to encourage the others.
I do blame myself for not remembering how stubborn Ukrainians can be. Stalin found that out when he began collectivizing agriculture. The peasants didn’t like that. So, Stalin took away their grain and let a few million starve to death. That taught them a lesson! It’s time to give them another.
I also underestimated Zelensky, that comedian, that Jew. I thought as soon as he saw my tanks rolling toward Kiev – not Kyiv, dammit! – he’d run crying to the West where he’d give speeches for gelt.
Perhaps I should have limited myself to what Biden called a “minor incursion.” The problem is I’m not getting any younger. I don’t have years to spend slicing the kolbasa.
Russia isn’t like Britain and France. They resigned themselves to the loss of their empires, to being has-beens, vassals of the uncultured, decadent, mongrel Americans.
We Russians are too proud to accept such a fate. We’ve always been an empire, not a nation-state. Yes, during the Soviet era we claimed to be anti-imperialists, but only idiots believed us.
Our imperial possessions still stretch over 11 times zones. Vladivostok means “conqueror of the East.”
But I see a problem there. Vladivostok was Chinese before we Russians annexed it. Xi Jinping is my friend, but he knows that if Russia weakens, he will have an opportunity to expand his empire. He has hundreds of millions of people he can send north to take our lands and exploit our resources. But that problem must wait. For now, I need him. And for now, Taiwan is at the top of his to-conquer list.
I’m encouraged by last week’s meeting of senior Western defense officials in Germany. They’re divided.
The Germans are still refusing to send their Leopard 2 tanks to the Ukrainians. Herr Scholz, mein alter Freund, fears me. With reason.
I’m told quite a few Americans – mostly Republicans which seems odd since I thought they were the tough guys – want to cut support to Ukrainians and even reduce military spending. And I’m hearing that the French are reading a novel about me called “The Wizard of the Kremlin.” Nice title!
German pacifists, American isolationists, French appeasers – they’re helping me decide what to do next: Refuse to negotiate and plan a spring offense that will finally force the Ukrainians to submit. The Ukrainians may think they want freedom but what they need is order – the order a czar provides.
Biden has surprised me, too, frankly. When he was vice president, he and Obama gave me Syria on a silver platter. Then, as president, Biden surrendered to those medieval barbarians in Afghanistan.
After that, his highest priority was “waging a war” against fossil fuels. Which didn’t prevent him from telling the Germans to go ahead with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would have made them more dependent on my fossil fuels.
So, it only seemed logical that he’d respond to my special military operation by just wagging his finger and imposing some new sanctions.
But when the Ukrainians refused to submit, Biden felt compelled to send them weapons – up to a point. I get it: His strategy is to show restraint – stopping short of giving them weapons that can strike inside Russia – in the hope that I’ll show restraint, too.
Nuclear weapons are my trump card. If I didn’t have them, Biden might have done what Bush the First did after Saddam swallowed Kuwait.
But my strategy is cleverer than his: I threaten to play the nuclear card, but I don’t. I hold it because to use it is to lose it. And if this strategy brings me victory in Ukraine, I can play it again.
Moldova would be the lowest-hanging fruit. It’s not a NATO member. After that, maybe I’d invade Lithuania from Belarus. Even if I only took the southern part of that country, I’d then have a land bridge to Kaliningrad, where my Baltic fleet is based.
Yes, Lithuania is a member of NATO, but which other NATO members are going to send their troops to die to liberate southern Lithuania – especially after Ukraine and Moldova have been ceded?
From there, I could move on to reclaim other breakaway provinces of Russkiy mir. “The hen pecks grain by grain,” as my grandfather would say!
Of course, if my nuclear blackmail strategy fails, I’ll have to lower my sights. I’ll have to ask Scholz or Macron to arrange a ceasefire – freezing the conflict but with me still in possession of Crimea and at least some of Donbas. That would give me time to prepare for another round of fighting.
What would Peter the Great do?
I have so much to decide. And the only one with whom I can have an honest and intelligent conversation is me.
*Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for the Washington Times. Follow him on Twitter @CliffordDMay. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Turkey's Elections Are Not Just Turkey's
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/January 26, 2023
To maximize the opportunity for the Turkish public to come to the polls... President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan brought forward the election date from an originally scheduled June 18 to May 14.
Erdoğan's treatment -- through a judiciary totally under his control -- of one of his potential rivals, Istanbul's Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who defeated Erdogan's party in 2019, is revealing. A court sentenced the popular İmamoğlu to a two-year prison sentence and a ban from politics for calling election officials who had annulled his first election "idiots." (Imamoğlu won twice.) If his conviction is not annulled or overturned, that verdict may take the Imamoğlu out of the presidential race.
Erdoğan has made it a habit to use the courts in the way he thinks would best suit his political agenda. As of 2020, the number of Kurdish mayors in prison was 21. The Erdoğan administration had appointed its own administrators to 45 of a total of 65 municipalities won by the pro-Kurdish party, Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), in 2019.
Turkey's Constitutional Court is currently being asked to order the closure of the party, which has 56 deputies in Turkey's parliament. An indictment against the party seeks to ban 451 politicians and party members from organized political activity or membership of political parties for a period of five years and forfeiture of the party's assets.... Even the mere freezing of assets [as has occurred] will deprive the HDP of the means to finance its election campaign.
Turkey's 2023 elections will not only be a race between those Turks who want freedom and despise Islamist rule and those who prefer to starve while dreaming of Ottoman times. It also promises to be maker of Turkey's global journey for at least the next five years.
Everyone in Turkey, in its region and in countries with interests or concerns about Turkey's political future, probably agree that presidential and parliamentary elections this spring will be the most important for every nation involved. To maximize the opportunity for the Turkish public to come to the polls, after calculating external factors such as Muslim Hajj pilgrimage, a religious holiday and university entrance exams, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan brought forward the election date from an originally scheduled June 18 to May 14.
In its January 20 edition, The Economist put Turkey's elections on its cover page, with the headline, "Turkey's looming dictatorship." The magazine commented: "The longer Mr Erdoğan has been in power, the more autocratic he has grown." The Economist also reminded readers that "Erdogan once likened democracy to a tram journey: when you reach your destination, you get off." It concluded: "Mr Erdoğan's behavior as the election approaches could push what is today a deeply flawed democracy over the edge into a full-blown dictatorship."
Erdoğan's treatment -- through a judiciary totally under his control -- of one of his potential rivals, Istanbul's Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who defeated Erdogan's party in 2019, is revealing. A court sentenced the popular İmamoğlu to a two-year prison sentence and a ban from politics for calling election officials who had annulled his first election "idiots." (Imamoğlu won twice.) If his conviction is not annulled or overturned, that verdict may take the Imamoğlu out of the presidential race.
Imamoğlu's court verdict was not surprising. Erdoğan has made it a habit to use the courts in the way he thinks would best suit his political agenda. As of 2020, the number of Kurdish mayors in prison was 21. The Erdoğan administration had appointed its own administrators to 45 of a total of 65 municipalities won by the pro-Kurdish party, Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), in 2019.
The HDP, the second biggest opposition party in the Turkish parliament, typically wins 10% to 14% of the national vote; many observers think it can be the kingmaker in the election. Erdoğan is working on dissolving the HDP ahead of the May elections. Turkey's Constitutional Court is currently being asked to order the closure of the party, which has 56 deputies in Turkey's parliament. An indictment against the party seeks to ban 451 politicians and party members from organized political activity or membership of political parties for a period of five years and forfeiture of the party's assets.
On January 5, the Constitutional Court agreed to a request by the chief prosecutor of the Court of Cassation for an interim measure of freezing the party's bank accounts, which contain funds from the state treasury that political party groups in parliament are entitled to receive. Even the mere freezing of assets will deprive the HDP of the means to finance its election campaign.
Many countries in or outside of Turkey's geographical proximity have stakes in its election results. The vote, in addition to governing Turkey, will be about whether the Turks are happy with their rogue government, or whether they want a recalibration of policy in favor of a safe anchor at the Western bay. Should Erdoğan be defeated, says Sinan Ülgen, director of the Istanbul think tank EDAM, "his successor will transform Turkey into a different foreign policy actor, more comfortable with its position as a Western nation."
Erdoğan has undermined NATO's security in countless strategic ways. He is ideologically anti-Western. He is a revisionist dreaming of reviving the "glorious Ottoman past" he adores, and he does not hide it. His disruptive influence on regional and international politics since he took power in 2002 is beyond dispute. According to a report in the Washington Post:
"... Erdogan's worldview is 'far more radical than most Westerners think,' says political analyst Selim Koru. His ambitions for Turkey's immediate neighborhood, where Ankara is increasingly influential, is not to complement American and European influence, 'it's to replace and counter them,' Koru says."
Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has called on the NATO military alliance to expel Turkey and give support to its opposition parties; he accuses it of not acting like an ally. In an opinion article in the Wall Street Journal, Bolton criticized Erdogan's "divisive and dangerous" performance and "belligerent regional policies."
Bolton urged the West to take "bold action to help ensure his domestic opposition gets a fair shake in upcoming presidential elections" this year, adding that "Turkish voters will have a chance to take their country."
Bolton is right. But there might also be a point of counter-productivity here. When criticism of Erdoğan comes so directly from what many Turkish voters still believe as "Turk-hating infidels, imperialists and former colonialists who hate Erdogan because he stands against them," even some Erdoğan-sceptic Turks tend to feel that "we must be united behind our country's leader."
The Turkish anger over The Economist's cover page and its Turkish election stories is the best proof. Erdoğan's spokesman, Fahrettin Altun, said:
"Here we go again! The Economist recycles its intellectually lazy, dull, and purposefully ignorant depiction of [Turkey]... It seems like they feel obligated to announce the end of Turkish democracy through regurgitating cliches, misinformation and blatant propaganda."
A big chorus of Turkish newspapers joined the government propaganda that that all criticism from the West, including from non-state independent media, is proof of centuries-old Turk-hating. İmamoğlu, who may be running against Erdoğan, said that "It's so apparent who benefits from such [Western] criticism of the government."
Turkey's 2023 elections will not only be a race between those Turks who want freedom and despise Islamist rule and those who prefer to starve while dreaming of Ottoman times. It also promises to be maker of Turkey's global journey for at least the next five years.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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How America Became Like a Muslim Nation
Raymond Ibrahim/American Thinker/January 26, 2023
Is the world progressing, as the progressives claim, or is it in fact regressing?
More and more evidence suggests the latter. In fact, in certain respects, the West is increasingly becoming like the quintessential Third World — namely, the Islamic world.
One can cite several examples — the West’s eagerness to ban any Christian symbol, lest it offend, its ban on free speech, lest that too offends (or “blasphemes” against Muslim sensibilities) — but an unexpected one recently surfaced.
On an episode of Tucker Carlson Tonight, the host offered the following account (note, especially, the italicized portions):
Josh Denny is a comedian. You may have heard of him. He used to work for the Food Network. He’s also pro-life, personally, and willing to say so out loud. Earlier this month, Denny was preparing to host a comedy show in Rutherford, New Jersey. That’s about a half hour outside of New York, but just minutes after the show was announced, Antifa, a violent, radical group, decided to shut it down.
Hundreds of Antifa-affiliated Twitter accounts started bombarding the venue called the Williams Center. They also went after the chief of police of Rutherford, a man called John Russo, and they threatened violence. Now, at that point, a chief of police who wanted to defend the Constitution, his solemn duty, would have pushed back and affirmed the sacred right of free expression of every American, but that’s not what Chief Russo did. Instead, he caved to the demands of the mob.
He warned the venue that the venue might face civil liability if they let free speech continue, if they allowed the show to go on. Then he said he would shut down the show on “public safety grounds.” So ultimately, the Williams Center had no choice and canceled the show. In the end, the only people who showed up at the Williams Center that night were several police officers, and they were there to make sure there was no comedy taking place, none at all.
Then, to add insult to injury, the next morning, the mayor of Rutherford, New Jersey, Frank Nunziato, bragged about what the city had done. He said it was his decision to use the power of the state to cut down comedy.
“Unbeknownst to the borough,” Nunziato wrote, “an event was planned for this evening at the Williams Center, news of which quickly circulated through social media. Online intelligence led the police department to believe that the event had the potential for confrontation. Therefore,” Nunziato said, “after discussions with the owner, the event has been canceled.” Now notice the blame shifting here, “the potential for confrontation.”
It wasn’t the comedian who was going to confront or threaten anyone with violence. It was the radical left-wing group Antifa. But it was the comedian who was punished.
This entire scenario is a virtual duplicate of what regularly happens to religious minorities throughout the Muslim world. In the preceding few years, I have come across numerous accounts of Muslim authorities shutting down Christian churches on the claim that they are “security threats.” Like the American comedian, these churches, of course, posed no threat; rather, those who dislike them, “radical Muslims” — like those who dislike the pro-life American comedian, “radical Antifa” — were the ones who posed the threats, and engaged in actual violence. Instead of standing against or punishing the “radicals,” in both scenarios the authorities capitulate before the “bullies” and punish their otherwise law-abiding and peaceful victims.
Only recently in Egypt, Muslims attacked a church and its Christians after authorities had given them permission to fix their church’s collapsed roof, which had fallen on and hurt several worshippers. (According to strict sharia, churches must never be repaired but left to crumble over time.) On the following day, the Muslim governor rescinded the church’s permit to fix its crumbling roof. This church is now one of more than 50 churches in Egypt to be closed on the claim that they pose security threats — that is, because Muslims riot at their existence.
In short, whenever Christians throughout the Muslim world attempt to repair, renovate, or build a church — all of which contradict the draconian, anti-Christian dictates of Islamic law — the same events follow: local Muslims riot and rampage, and local (Muslim) officials conclude that the only way to prevent “angry youth” from acts of violence is to ban the church—which is then seen and treated as a “threat” to security.
And now this same “logic” has come to and is operating with impunity in America.

The Great Powers Are Not So Strong
Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 26/2023
News from Ukraine, China and the United States last week again reminded me that we are going into a new world system where no country will dominate and the need for wise diplomacy to prevent war is greater.
As we near the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it more obvious than ever that Russia is a declining power. Putin’s Russia could not conquer Ukraine despite Russia’s population being three times the size of Ukraine’s and its economy almost ten times bigger. Russian technology and organization are inferior and corruption in its system is terrible.
Worse for Russia, its population is declining – it dropped by a million in 2021 and by another half million in the first part of 2022. Younger, educated workers fleeing the war in 2022 is part of the reason for the decline. Putin will have huge difficulty fixing these problems. Probably he cannot.
Although Washington is busy with the Ukraine war, most American analysts focus not on Russia but instead on China. Last week we saw also an important sign of growing Chinese weakness: China’s population decreased for the first time since 1961. The decrease was only 850,000 from a population of 1.4 billion, but the population will continue to shrink.
A United Nations report last year estimated China’s population will decrease by 109 million by 2050; a report from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences anticipates China’s population will fall to 600 million by the end of the century.
As the population decreases, the labor force also will shrink and at the same time the number of retired workers in China will grow. Economic growth which came from abundant, cheap workers will slow, tax revenues will decrease and the Chinese government will have to spend more for pensions and health care. Although Beijing can spend much on the military now, in the long-term it will have fewer financial resources for its military.
The Americans cannot celebrate, however. Last week the extreme right-wing of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives threatened to block the Treasury Department from borrowing more money. Without more borrowing, the Treasury must reduce spending for civilian and military programs. At the same time, interest rates on American bonds will soar and, in the end, we will see a major shock to the American and world economy.
It is amazing what chaos twenty hardline conservative members of Congress could do. However, their primary concern is justified. The Chinese will have to worry about paying for pensions and health care, but so does the United States because American government statistics show that the number of Americans over the age of 65 will almost double to 95 million by 2060. Already pensions and health care eat half the American annual budget.
Probably the Treasury Department can escape a major financial crisis until early summer so there is still time for the Congress and the President to find a solution.
Even if we avoid a financial crisis in 2023, America still has a fundamental financial weakness as its society ages. It is hard to see how in the long-term the American military budget can continue to eat more than one-fourth of our government budget with money borrowed from American and international capital networks.American, Chinese or Russia power will not dominate the future world like the Americans after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Instead, other rising powers will have wide space to maneuver and negotiate.
India, for example, will soon have the largest population of any country in the world. (As historian Niall Ferguson has written, population alone is not an indicator of global power. Indonesia has the world’s fourth largest population, but it is not the world’s fourth power.)
Some international companies already are avoiding China and putting their investment projects in other countries like India; some economists call this changing supply change “reglobalization.”
At the same time, Russia and China have provoked Europeans and Japan to increase the size of their militaries. They want close American military alliances against the Russian and Chinese threats, but at the same time they will use the World Trade Organization to block America-first trade policies.
China is buying more Iranian oil and the Indian (and Turkish) policy to maintain good political and commercial relations with Russia despite American unhappiness are more examples of the emerging multipolar world system.
Putin erred when he thought he could exploit the divisions in this new system to capture Ukraine. He expected more help from China and less unity in the West.
His misunderstanding shows that changes in global power balances, or just a mistaken perception of a change in relative power, will raise the risks of war and emphasizes the requirement for accurate intelligence and wise diplomacy to maintain global balances and stability.

Oh, Biden, What Have You Done?
Jonathan Alter/The New York Times/January, 26/2023
Four months after President Biden called Donald Trump’s mishandling of classified documents “irresponsible,” that vintage car — parked at the president’s home in Delaware next to his own boxes containing classified material — has been transformed into a shiny symbol of hypocrisy.
Just two weeks ago, Democrats were chortling over chaos in the G.O.P., convinced that far-right Republican control of the House would help them in 2024. Then they experienced the exquisite torture that comes with the slow release of politically damaging information, in this case the acknowledgment of classified documents found in Mr. Biden’s former offices and Wilmington home. Now he’s fully in the barrel — targeted by powerful congressional committees, aggressive reporters looking for scoops and a methodical new special counsel, Robert Hur, to match Jack Smith, the special counsel investigating Mr. Trump.
The optical equivalence between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden is phony, of course. Mr. Trump is a grifter who appears to have intentionally taken hundreds of classified documents, bragging that he kept the folders marked “classified” or “confidential” as “‘cool’ keepsakes.” He said of his stash of classified documents, according to several advisers, “It’s not theirs; it’s mine,” and seemingly defied a subpoena to return the documents, thereby exposing him to possible prosecution for obstruction of justice. Mr. Biden, by contrast, was sloppy and slow to search for and disclose the existence of about 20 stray classified documents but is fully cooperating with authorities.
Unfortunately for Mr. Biden, this distinction cannot easily survive the miasma of congressional and special counsel subpoenas, relentless questions from reporters and fresh allegations of impropriety that signal the arrival of a new episodic political drama. Many voters with better things to do with their time than parse the nuances of presidential record keeping may casually conclude that both men are careless, lying politicians.
On one level, the classified documents imbroglio is just an acrimonious prelude to the 2024 campaign, a story that will surface, disappear, then surface again with tiresome predictability. But Mr. Biden’s new problems run deeper than that. They represent both a challenge to his core political brand of honor and decency and the start of a more intense, potentially combative period of scrutiny for a president poised to seek re-election. All of which suggests that we may look back on January of 2023 as the end of a relatively brief era in American political life — a period, for all its turmoil, when two Democratic presidents avoided being enmeshed in the grinding machinery of scandal that has otherwise characterized Washington for half a century.
All 10 American presidencies since 1973 have faced investigation by a special counsel or independent prosecutor, except one: Barack Obama’s. For eight years, Mr. Obama and his vice president and other high-ranking officials were seen as figures of unusual rectitude, and the impression of integrity returned when Mr. Biden took office after four years of wall-to-wall corruption. But now this sharp ethical contrast with Mr. Trump has been dulled. That complicates the president’s expected re-election campaign — and could even short-circuit it.
Most Democrats still think Mr. Biden is honest, and they view his accomplishments on the economy, climate, infrastructure and defending democracy as far more significant than this lapse. But it’s hard to exaggerate the level of Democratic exasperation with him for squandering a huge political advantage on the Mar-a-Lago story and for muddying what may have been the best chance to convict Mr. Trump on federal charges. Mr. Biden’s more serious problem may be with independents, whom he carried by nine points in 2020. Unforced errors can take a toll with them. Even as the classified documents story eventually fades — it will most likely not be a first-tier issue next year — swing voters may see him in a harsher light.
Mr. Biden’s vulnerabilities are closer to home. His allies are reportedly claiming the story will blow over because it’s just D.C. noise, but that was not Hillary Clinton’s experience with her emails and server. In the same way that the grueling Benghazi hearings from 2014 through 2016 softened Mrs. Clinton up for later attacks, the Biden documents story may give new life to unproven allegations about his connections to unsavory Chinese executives in business with members of his family. Did foreign nationals have access to the mishandled classified documents? That’s highly unlikely. But Republican lawmakers will use Democratic charges about security breaches at Mar-a-Lago as an excuse to open outlandish lines of inquiry.
And the G.O.P. now has subpoena power to delve into red-meat targets like the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop and any communications on it that involved the current president. James Comer, the new chair of the House Oversight Committee, will almost certainly haul Hunter Biden and his uncle James Biden, the president’s brother, before the committee to testify about their suspiciously lucrative deals with foreign firms and the way their business intersected disastrously with Hunter Biden’s squalid personal life.
To navigate the coming storm, Joe Biden needs to up his political game — no small feat for a man of his age — and avoid becoming his own worst enemy. Beyond an improving economy and a successful conclusion to the war in Ukraine, the best medicine for his political ailments would be a surprising legislative victory. In the new Congress, 18 House Republicans represent districts that Mr. Biden carried in 2020. If Mr. Biden can persuade just a handful of them to vote against defaulting on the national debt and sending the global economy into a depression — a harder task than it sounds because of all-but-inevitable right-wing primary challenges — he’ll get credit for averting a major economic crisis.
But even if Mr. Biden puts wins on the board, survives venomous Republican lawmakers and gets off with a slap on the wrist in the special counsel’s report, the classified documents story has likely stripped him of a precious political asset with some independents and Democrats: the benefit of the doubt. The general feeling that Mr. Biden — like Mr. Obama — is clean and scandal-free has been replaced by the normal Washington assumption of some level of guilt.
Republicans are ferocious attack dogs, especially when they have something to chew on. And Mr. Biden, a better president than candidate, has never had the nimbleness necessary for good defense. When he first ran for president in 1988, he was forced to withdraw amid minor charges of plagiarism that a more dexterous politician might have survived. Over the years, his skills on the stump deteriorated. He performed poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020 and recovered in South Carolina and won the nomination only because Democrats concluded en masse that he was the best candidate to beat Mr. Trump.
That remains the prevailing assumption inside the Democratic Party: He did it before and can do it again. But it’s not clear that rank-and-file voters agree. Last year a New York Times/Siena College poll showed nearly two-thirds of Democrats didn’t want Mr. Biden to run. While his standing improved after the midterms, he’s down in the first polls released since the documents story broke.
The president is now an elderly swimmer in a sea of sharks. And some of them may even be Democrats. It’s not hard to envision an ambitious primary challenger arguing, more in sorrow than in anger, that he or she supports most of the Biden record but elections are about the future and the party needs a more vigorous candidate. (Mr. Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term.) Democratic leaders will be shocked and appalled by the upstart’s temerity in spoiling the party’s impressive unity. But New Hampshire is full of anti-establishment independents, and basically the entire state is furious with Mr. Biden for proposing to bump its primary to the second week of the schedule. He could easily lose or be weakened there, opening the door for other Democrats. Which ones? That’s what primaries are for.
In the meantime, the president isn’t looking good in polls pitting him against Republicans in hypothetical 2024 matchups. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump have been running about even, a depressing finding for Democrats. And if the G.O.P. nominates a younger candidate like Ron DeSantis, Mr. Biden could be the octogenarian underdog in the general election.
Imagine instead that the president takes a leaf from Nancy Pelosi and decides not to run. Mr. Comer and the clownish members of his committee would probably end up training most of their fire on Democrats not named Biden. Democrats would “turn the page,” as Mr. Obama recommended in 2008, to a crop of fresher candidates, probably governors, who contrast better with Mr. Trump and would have good odds of beating a younger Republican. And the smiling old gentleman in the Corvette — his shortcomings forgotten and his family protected — would assume his proper place as a bridge between political generations and arguably the most accomplished one-term president in American history.