English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 24/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus Heals a Man Born Blind
John 09/01-34/As he went along, he saw a man blind from birth. 2 His disciples asked him, “Rabbi, who sinned, this man or his parents, that he was born blind?”“Neither this man nor his parents sinned,” said Jesus, “but this happened so that the works of God might be displayed in him. As long as it is day, we must do the works of him who sent me. Night is coming, when no one can work.While I am in the world, I am the light of the world.”After saying this, he spit on the ground, made some mud with the saliva, and put it on the man’s eyes. “Go,” he told him, “wash in the Pool of Siloam” (this word means “Sent”). So the man went and washed, and came home seeing. His neighbors and those who had formerly seen him begging asked, “Isn’t this the same man who used to sit and beg?” 9 Some claimed that he was. Others said, “No, he only looks like him.”But he himself insisted, “I am the man.” “How then were your eyes opened?” they asked. He replied, “The man they call Jesus made some mud and put it on my eyes. He told me to go to Siloam and wash. So I went and washed, and then I could see.”“Where is this man?” they asked him. “I don’t know,” he said. The Pharisees Investigate the Healingز They brought to the Pharisees the man who had been blind. Now the day on which Jesus had made the mud and opened the man’s eyes was a Sabbath. Therefore the Pharisees also asked him how he had received his sight. “He put mud on my eyes,” the man replied, “and I washed, and now I see.” Some of the Pharisees said, “This man is not from God, for he does not keep the Sabbath.”But others asked, “How can a sinner perform such signs?” So they were divided. Then they turned again to the blind man, “What have you to say about him? It was your eyes he opened.”The man replied, “He is a prophet.”
They still did not believe that he had been blind and had received his sight until they sent for the man’s parents. 19 “Is this your son?” they asked. “Is this the one you say was born blind? How is it that now he can see?”“We know he is our son,” the parents answered, “and we know he was born blind. But how he can see now, or who opened his eyes, we don’t know. Ask him. He is of age; he will speak for himself.” His parents said this because they were afraid of the Jewish leaders, who already had decided that anyone who acknowledged that Jesus was the Messiah would be put out of the synagogue. That was why his parents said, “He is of age; ask him.”A second time they summoned the man who had been blind. “Give glory to God by telling the truth,” they said. “We know this man is a sinner.” He replied, “Whether he is a sinner or not, I don’t know. One thing I do know. I was blind but now I see!” Then they asked him, “What did he do to you? How did he open your eyes?” He answered, “I have told you already and you did not listen. Why do you want to hear it again? Do you want to become his disciples too?” Then they hurled insults at him and said, “You are this fellow’s disciple! We are disciples of Moses! We know that God spoke to Moses, but as for this fellow, we don’t even know where he comes from.” The man answered, “Now that is remarkable! You don’t know where he comes from, yet he opened my eyes. We know that God does not listen to sinners. He listens to the godly person who does his will. Nobody has ever heard of opening the eyes of a man born blind. 33 If this man were not from God, he could do nothing.” To this they replied, “You were steeped in sin at birth; how dare you lecture us!” And they threw him out.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 23-24/2023
Judge resumes stalled Beirut port blast investigation
Bitar resumes probe, decides to charge Ibrahim, release Merhi
Prosecution to ignore Bitar's decision as Khoury refers it to higher council
What will Hezbollah-Bassil meeting discuss?
Mikati says not seeking to usurp president's powers
Jumblat proposed Gen. Aoun, Azour and Honein in Hezbollah meeting
Berri meets UK Defense Senior Advisor to the Middle East, follows up on developmental affairs with Akkari delegation
Makary to Arab diplomats: Beirut city never tires
Mikati meets UN’s Wronecka, UK Defense Senior Advisor to the Middle East, Caretaker Minister of Public Health, General Labor Confederation...
Mikati meets Press Syndicate Council delegation: The Council of Ministers will definitely convene to decide upon urgent issues
Riachy visits Bkerki, says LF and Rahi share mutual vision on presidential election
Army Chief meets UK Defense Senior Advisor to the Middle East, Saudi Military Attache
Report: Berri not bothered by parliament sit-in
Grenade hurled at LBCI building in Adma
Army says has moved barbed wire beyond Blue Line following Israeli violation in Hounin Valley
As Lebanon collapses, Hezbollah will be buried in the rubble/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/January 23, 2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 23-24/2023
U.S., Israel launch week of major military exercises
Blinken demands that Azerbaijan open disputed corridor to Armenia
Kuwait PM submits cabinet resignation
Iraqi PM replaces Central Bank governor over currency drop
EU agrees new Iran sanctions, won't label Guards as 'terrorist' for now
EU plans more Iran sanctions; won't list Revolutionary Guard
US Hits Iran with New Sanctions over Crackdown on Protests
Britain Sanctions Iranian Figures over Human Rights Violations
Iran Arrests Three Female Journalists
Iranian Female Political Prisoners Urge End to Protester Executions
European allies urge Germany to let tanks go to Ukraine
Head of Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine's Donetsk says visited Soledar
Former Wagner commander faces deportation from Norway - Russian rights group
Lavrov says West prevented negotiations to end Ukraine war
Germany and France Push for Huge Spending to Compete With US
Russia claims that it was ready to strike an early peace deal with Ukraine but the West ruined it
Sweden’s NATO Bid in Doubt After Erdogan Refuses Support

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 23-24/2023
Iran’s Newest Commitments: Gatstone Institute/January 23, 2023
Will Putin survive his 'catastrophic' Ukraine war?/Peter Weber/The Week/January 23, 2023
The Crypto Collapse and the End of the Magical Thinking That Infected Capitalism/Mihir A. Desai/The New York Times/Monday, 23 January, 2023
Iranian regime’s spending priorities remain unchanged/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 23, 2023

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 23-24/2023
Judge resumes stalled Beirut port blast investigation
Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 23, 2023
5 suspects released, 8 others charged, including Lebanese security officials, judges
BEIRUT: The judge investigating Beirut’s deadly 2020 port blast resumed his work on Monday after an almost 13-month halt to proceedings. And Tarek Bitar’s first job was to order the release of five detained suspects: A port maintenance contractor and his Syrian-national employee, one of the port’s directors, Michel Nahoul, former customs chief, Shafik Merhi, and port operations director, Sami Hussein. At the same time, he charged eight people with “potential intent to kill,” some of the most prominent names including the chiefs of General Security and State Security, Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, and Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba, respectively, and judges Ghassan Khoury, Carla Shawah, and Jad Maalouf. A judicial source told Arab News that a travel ban would be imposed on those people released without bail and that there would be more releases to follow. Seventeen people have been charged in connection with the explosion which took place on Aug. 4, 2020, killing more than 300 people and injuring at least 6,500. Families of blast victims had recently ramped up pressure on the judges of the Supreme Judicial Council not to appoint another judge to decide on the fate of the detained suspects.
Bitar requested from the public prosecution on Monday that the suspects’ release would be implemented and that the defendants would be informed about the decision. He had previously requested the initiation of legal proceedings against Maalouf and Shawah but the public prosecution had not taken any action against them. Maalouf allegedly played a key role in allowing the unloading of the ship carrying tons of the ammonium nitrate that eventually exploded, and appointed a judicial guard, while Shawah was accused of failing to act to destroy the hazardous material. Bitar resumed his investigations from his office at the Justice Palace following months of legal attempts to remove him from the case. But he said the timing was not linked to his recent meeting in Beirut with a French judicial delegation. Two French nationals were killed in the blast and others were injured. Bitar told the delegation that his report into the case was already 540 pages long and that he had around 150 pages still to write. Responding to Bitar’s latest moves, the Lebanese minister of justice in the caretaker government contacted the Supreme Judicial Council questioning legal documentation allowing the judge to resume his work and issues surrounding confidentiality.

Bitar resumes probe, decides to charge Ibrahim, release Merhi
Agence France Presse/January 23, 2023
The lead investigator into the catastrophic Beirut port explosion, Judge Tarek Bitar, resumed his probe on Monday, a judicial source and TV networks said, after a 13-month suspension due to political pressure.
"Bitar has decided to resume his investigation," the judicial official told AFP, adding that the judge has ordered the release of five detained suspects, while charging eight others, including two high-ranking security officials. "Bitar conducted a legal study that led him to decide to resume his investigations despite the complaints filed against him," the official said. The eight individuals who will be charged by Bitar include General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim and State Security chief Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba, the judicial official said. Al-Jadeed said the number of those who will be charged will increase in the coming days.TV networks identified the five suspects who will be released as Salim Chebli (maintenance contractor at the port), Ahmed al-Rajab (Syrian national who worked for Chebli), Michel Nahoul (a director at the port), Shafik Merhi (former customs chief) and Sami Hussein (operations director at the port).
According to al-Jadeed TV, the five will be released without bail but a travel ban will be imposed on them.
And according to a leaked copy, Bitar's legal study mentions the following:
- The Judicial Council is a special court that is totally independent and not outranked by any other court or judicial body.
- The new Code of Criminal Procedure issued in 2001 allowed for the recusal and removal of Judicial Council members but not the judicial investigator.
- The same Code of Criminal Procedure stipulated the appointment of a successor to any removed Judicial Council member to avoid any obstruction of justice.
- Legislators wanted the judicial investigator to be a special investigator to whom the rules of recusal and removal do not apply.
- Any judicial decision to remove the judicial investigator would certainly entail the abolishment of a post created by governmental decision, which would breach the principle of separation of powers stipulated by the constitution. The investigation into the cause of the blast had been stalled since December 2021 as politicians that Bitar had summoned for questioning filed complaints against him, forcing him to halt his probe.
Hezbollah had also repeatedly demanded that Bitar step down from the investigation and an anti-Bitar protest organized by the party and its Amal Movement ally turned into deadly sectarian clashes in the Tayyouneh-Ain el-Remmaneh area. No state official has yet been held accountable over the blast. Last week, Bitar met with two French judges about his investigation, a judicial source told AFP at the time. The August 4, 2020 explosion at the Beirut port killed more than 230 people, wounded more than 6,000 and destroyed swathes of the capital. Authorities said tons of ammonium nitrate fertilizer haphazardly stocked in a port warehouse since 2014 had caught fire, causing one of history's largest non-nuclear explosions.

Prosecution to ignore Bitar's decision as Khoury refers it to higher council
Naharnet/January 23, 2023
The public prosecution will deal with Judge Tarek Bitar’s decision to resume investigations into the Beirut port blast as being “inexistent,” and accordingly it will not implement release or prosecution orders, MTV reported. Caretaker Justice Minister Henri Khoury meanwhile issued a statement noting that he learned of the decision from the media. “Media outlets are circulating excerpts of a decision issued by the judicial investigator into the Beirut port blast case,” Khoury said in his statement. “Based on what those excerpts contained, the Justice Minister referred a copy of them to the Higher Judicial Council for viewing, in light of the possible impact on the course of this file and the proper conduct of justice, especially in terms of the need to preserve the confidentiality of investigations,” Khoury added. Bitar based on his decision on a legal study that he conducted, in which he argued that the judicial investigator cannot be recused or removed, citing several legal articles. Bitar also ordered the release of five detainees and announced plans to charge eight others, including General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim and State Security chief Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba, judicial officials said.

What will Hezbollah-Bassil meeting discuss?
Naharnet/January 23, 2023
A Hezbollah delegation comprising secretary-general’s aide Hussein Khalil and Coordination and Liaison Officer Wafiq Safa met Monday with Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil in Sin el-Fil's Mirna Chalouhi area, media reports said. Hezbollah will try for a last time to convince Bassil with its presidential candidate al-Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh, al-Jadeed said, adding that Hezbollah had previously informed Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat that Franjieh is the only candidate trusted by Hezbollah. Al-Akhbar newspaper ruled out that possibility. It said Monday that prominent sources have told it that the main goal of the meeting is an attempt to repair the relation between Hezbollah and the FPM, to try to prevent that the understanding turns into rivalry. "Hezbollah chief Sayyed hassan Nasrallah has already told Bassil about Hezbollah's candidate, and Bassil's position on electing Franjieh is known," the sources said. The meeting will rather be a beginning for settling the disagreement, according to the sources who went on to say that Nasrallah's hand is extended and that the meeting will discuss all the contentious files, including the presidential and the governmental files. The FPM for its part welcomed the meeting initiative, al-Akhbar said. "We do not want disagreement. Our hand is extended and our heart is open," prominent FPM sources told the daily. But the sources added that what happened cannot be fixed only with a meeting but needs to be addressed and resolved.

Mikati says not seeking to usurp president's powers
Naharnet/January 23, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Monday noted that the caretaker cabinet “will certainly convene to tackle urgent issues.”Mikati, however, said that no imminent session is planned and that an agenda containing all the urgent files is being prepared. Mikati voiced his remarks in a meeting with the board of the Press Syndicate. Responding to a question, Mikati said that some parties’ accusations that the caretaker cabinet sessions are violating the National Pact are baseless. “Seven out of 12 Christian ministers took part in the (latest) session. As for the claims that we want to usurp the president’s powers, they are unfounded, seeing as what we’re doing is stipulated by the constitution pending the election of a new president,” Mikati added. “The solution for the presidential issue should begin with an inter-Christian agreement and therefore this issue is the responsibility of parliament, not the government,” the premier went on to say. He also said that “the remarks about an attempt to seize control of Christian posts are surprising and not based on facts,” in an apparent respond to statements by Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi.

Jumblat proposed Gen. Aoun, Azour and Honein in Hezbollah meeting
Naharnet/January 23, 2023
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat discussed in his recent meeting with Hezbollah the possibility of “agreeing on a candidate who would not represent a provocation to Hezbollah” and who would rather “reassure” it, senior PSP sources said. “In his call for agreeing on a president who would not be labeled as a provocation to any group, Jumblat considered that the supporters of MP Michel Mouawad’s presidential nomination cannot secure a parliamentary majority to guarantee his win, and that the same applies to the supporters of Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh,” the sources added, in remarks to Asharq al-Awsat newspaper published Monday. Moreover, the sources quoted Jumblat as saying that there is a need to “meet halfway” in order to “crystallize a unified stance” to would lead to a president’s election. “Jumblat proposed three candidates to explore Hezbollah’s stance on them: Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, ex-MP Salah Honein and ex-minister Jihad Azour,” the sources added, pointing out that the Hezbollah delegation did not comment neither negatively nor positively on the names. However, Hussein Khalil, the political aide to Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, noted that “Aoun’s election would require a constitutional amendment and accordingly the approval of two thirds of MPs of it.” Ad-Diyar newspaper meanwhile said that Jumblat also raised the name of LBCI TV chairman Pierre El Daher as a potential candidate during the meeting. The daily added that Daher is an “acceptable” nominee to Hezbollah. The PSP’s al-Anbaa news portal meanwhile confirmed that the party is seeing to create a “breakthrough” that would push for consensus on a candidate on whom the various parties would agree.

Berri meets UK Defense Senior Advisor to the Middle East, follows up on developmental affairs with Akkari delegation
NNA/January 23, 2023
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday received at the Second Presidency in Ain El-Tineh, UK Defence Senior Advisor to the Middle East and North Africa, Air Marshal Martin Sampson, in the presence of British Ambassador to Lebanon, Hamish Cowell. Discussions reportedly touched on the current general situation and the bilateral relations between Lebanon and the UK. Speaker Berri later reviewed the current general situation and developmental affairs and demands related to northern region and Akkar during his meeting with Greek Orthodox Metropolitan, Basilios Mansour, Pastor of the Diocese of Akkar, in the presence of MPs Sajih Attieh and Asaad Dergham. Berri also received former minister Marwan Kheireddine.

Makary to Arab diplomats: Beirut city never tires
NNA/January 23, 2023
Caretaker Information Minister, Ziad Makary, on Monday stressed that Beirut city “never gets tired and never gives up”, counting on the strong solidarity among its people — individuals and companies. The minister made his statement after a meeting with the ambassadors of Arab countries, to whom he expressed ultimate joy that Beirut has been designated the "Arab Media Capital for the year 2023". “The purpose behind this meeting is to confirm the existing friendship between Beirut and the Arab capitals that you represent in your second country, Lebanon,” Makary added. The meeting was attended by the Ambassadors of Tunisia, Jordan, Oman, Somalia, Qatar, Morocco, Mauritania, and Yemen, alongside diplomats from the Embassies of Sudan, Iraq, Palestine, Kuwait, and Egypt. Among attendees were also Director General of the Ministry of Information Hassan Falha, and Director of the National News Agency Ziad Harfouche.

Mikati meets UN’s Wronecka, UK Defense Senior Advisor to the Middle East, Caretaker Minister of Public Health, General Labor Confederation...
NNA/January 23, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Monday met at the Grand Serail with United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka. “We’ve discussed the role of the UN and the activities it could carry out this year, as well as what is required of it,” Wronecka said on emerging. “The election of a president will have a positive impact on all issues in Lebanon, and we hope that will happen as soon as possible,” the UN diplomat added. On the other hand, Caretaker Premier Mikati received at the Grand Serail, UK Defence Senior Advisor to the Middle East and North Africa, Air Marshal Martin Sampson, in the presence of British Ambassador to Lebanon, Hamish Cowell, in the presence of Premier Mikati’s Advisors Ambassador Boutros Assaker and Ziad Mikati. Premier Mikati later met with Caretaker Minister of Public Health, Dr. Firas Abiad, who said on emerging that he discussed with the Premier the hospitals and medicines’ issues. Mikati separately had an audience with President of the General Labor Confederation (GLC) Bechara Asmar.

Mikati meets Press Syndicate Council delegation: The Council of Ministers will definitely convene to decide upon urgent issues
NNA/January 23, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Monday announced that “the Council of Ministers will certainly convene to address urgent issues, but there is no quick call to convene a Cabinet session, pending the completion of urgent files that will be placed on the agenda.”
In a dialogue with the Press Syndicate Council today, Caretaker Premier Mikati said: "Among the urgent files that should be decided upon by the Council of Ministers is the public school strike currently in its third week, the file of Lebanon's obligations towards the United Nations, the conclusion of a donation contract with the World Bank worth 25 million dollars, as well as the waste contracts, wheat issue, and others."Moreover, Mikati considered that "the talk about an attempt to take control of Christian positions is surprising and baseless."Premier Mikati welcomed on Monday at the Grand Serail a delegation representing the Press Syndicate Council, headed by its Dean Awni El-Kaaki, in the presence of Vice Dean George Solage.

Riachy visits Bkerki, says LF and Rahi share mutual vision on presidential election
NNA/January 23, 2023
Member of Parliament, Melhem Riachy, on Monday visited Bkerki upon the request of "Lebanese Forces" party leader, Samir Geagea. Riachy first took part in a mass celebrated by Maronite patriarch, Bechara Rahi. In the wake of a closed-door meeting with the Patriarch, Riachy indicated that “the meeting focused on the country’s political situation, most specifically the question of the election of a new President of the Republic.”Riachy went on to confirm the LF’s mutual vision with the Maronite patriarch regarding the presidential election, stressing that "relations [with the patriarch] are more than good, but rather excellent.”

Army Chief meets UK Defense Senior Advisor to the Middle East, Saudi Military Attache
NNA/January 22/2023
Lebanese Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on Monday received at his Yarzeh office, UK Defence Senior Advisor to the Middle East and North Africa, Air Marshal Martin Sampson, in the presence of British Ambassador to Lebanon, Hamish Cowell, and British Military Attaché, Colonel Lee Richard Sanders. Discussions reportedly touched on means of cooperation between the armies of the two countries. On the other hand, Maj. Gen Aoun received the Saudi military attache, Colonel Fawaz bin Musaed bin Dwaihi Al-Mutairi, who came on an acquaintance visit upon assuming his duties in Lebanon.

Report: Berri not bothered by parliament sit-in
Naharnet/January 22/2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is not bothered by an open-ended sit-in inside parliament, sources close to the speaker told al-Joumhouria newspaper. In remarks published Monday, the sources quoted Berri as saying that he does not consider the sit-in as a confrontation but rather a "right." MPs Melhem Khalaf and Najat Saliba of the Change parliamentary bloc had begun on Thursday an open-ended sit-in inside parliament to press for an end to the presidential deadlock. Other change and opposition MPs joined them later. Berri also reportedly said that he wants a president to be elected as soon as possible, like the protesting MPs and even more than them. He added, according to the sources, that he had called for dialogue himself, but there was no responsiveness to that call.

Grenade hurled at LBCI building in Adma
Naharnet/January 22/2023
Unknown assailants hurled a stun grenade at LBCI's building in Adma on Sunday evening, causing material damage, the TV network said. A video aired by the channel showed several vehicles with broken windshields and a metallic wall hit by shrapnel. The incident comes after the comedians Hussein Kaouk and Mohammed Dayekh and the TV network received threats over a comic sketch that some deemed offensive to Shiite Muslims. The sketch is from the first episode of Kaouk and Dayekh’s new comedy show ‘Taa Ello Byezaal’ and the duo had faced a similar backlash over a show that was aired on al-Jadeed television. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati held a phone call with LBCI chairman Pierre El Daher in the wake of the grenade attack, stressing that “investigations will be intensified until the circumstances of the incident are unveiled.”“The freedom of the responsible press will remain safeguarded and will not be intimidated by any attack,” Mikati added. He also inquired about the safety of the network’s employees.

Army says has moved barbed wire beyond Blue Line following Israeli violation in Hounin Valley
NNA/January 22/2023
The Lebanese army announced, in a tweet on Monday, that it has moved a barbed wire beyond the Blue Line into the occupied Palestinian lands, after an enemy troop stretched it for a meter into the Lebanese territories in Hounin Valley, in violation of the said Line.

As Lebanon collapses, Hezbollah will be buried in the rubble
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/January 23, 2023
Lebanon last week joined an exclusive club of countries — the others being Dominica, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, South Sudan and Venezuela — who lost their UN voting rights for being at least two years in arrears with their contributions.
This is a mortifying humiliation for a nation that historically took pride in its conspicuous UN role, punching above its weight as an activist state on humanitarian and human rights issues, not least the Palestinian cause.
With the Lebanese pound hitting a record low of 50,000 to the US dollar, even if Lebanese diplomats were minded to honour their international commitments, they would perhaps have to turn up at UN offices with wheelbarrows full of near-worthless cash.
Parliament has failed in 11 consecutive attempts to elect a president. With half of MPs committed to blocking Hezbollah-sponsored candidates, and Hezbollah resolved to veto anyone who doesn’t meet their criteria, those MPs engaged in a sit-in could be there for a long time. Last week Hassan Nasrallah declared: “We want a brave president who is willing to make sacrifices.” What he means, of course, is that Hezbollah require a president willing to take orders from Nasrallah. There is a knock-on effect for senior national roles, such as the soon-to-be vacant positions of head of the army and of the central bank, which cannot be filled without the election of a president. The failure to cobble together a government also looks set to continue, until the parliament concedes to Hezbollah’s demands. A new World Bank report signals not only that Lebanon ranks “among the most severe crises globally since the mid-19th century,” but also that “an unprecedented institutional vacuum will further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and critical reform ratification.” The Lebanese government and the IMF have nominally agreed on a $3 billion program, but this is a tiny fraction of financial sector losses that exceed $70 billion, and excludes any recovery plan for society’s most vulnerable.
I was deeply grieved last week at the loss of a close friend, Ghassan Ibrahim, a talented architect and interior designer who distributed much of his fortune to those less fortunate. Ghassan effectively died in his sleep of a broken heart, having lost most of his money in the banking crisis, leaving him unable to pay his employees. Lebanon has become a nation of Ghassans – proud citizens compelled to make impossible decisions, financially unable to meet their most basic obligations through no fault of their own. Hezbollah has exploited the collapse of Lebanon’s institutions to expand parallel institutions of its own, based on self-serving fatwas rather than anything remotely legal. The charity status of the Qard Al-Hassan financial institution exempts it from the tight regulation of other financial establishments, allowing it to be virtually the only institution that reliably allows dollar cash payments.
With its considerable income from Iran, narcotics and other illegal sources, Hezbollah has exploited widespread impoverishment and chaos to acquire land, properties and businesses — including vast tracts of territory in regions far outside Hezbollah-land, a provocation that risks triggering conflict with these communities. Hezbollah’s attitude is that if it can’t acquire what it wants on its own terms, it will block everything indefinitely. Nasrallah and the ayatollahs aspire to complete domination of Lebanon, although on the current trajectory there will be nothing left to dominate except piles of rubble and bones — particularly if they inadvertently trigger war with Israel.
Hezbollah is weakened, in part because Tehran has been weakened, with large demonstrations continuing across Iran, the collapse of negotiations on the nuclear issue, and Benjamin Netanyahu’s new government in Israel signaling its readiness for confrontation. However, I still encounter muddled thinking toward Iran among Western diplomats; they recognize the threat that Tehran poses, but are squeamish about doing anything about it, even backing away from declaring the Republican Guards a terrorist entity. Hezbollah can remain as a pre-eminent political and paramilitary force only if it retains the backing of its Shiite support base, and this relationship has been challenged as never before. Wading into the Syrian carnage not only created thousands of “martyrs” and wounded veterans, but also meant Hezbollah diluting its ranks with less ideologically committed recruits. Many of these foot soldiers were disgusted by the corruption of superiors who had become massively enriched through their involvement in cross-border smuggling. They too have seen salaries slashed as Hezbollah has been compelled to impose austerity measures, meaning that the organization is far less able to buy loyalty than in the past.
Beyond this, Shiite citizens are sick of Hezbollah’s lies and broken promises. They no longer buy into the rhetoric that Hezbollah exists to liberate them from Israeli aggression; the organization is liberating them only from their own nation and its sovereign status. As long as Hezbollah prioritizes the interests of Iran over Lebanon, and its actions perpetuate the political and economic meltdown, the group will continue hemorrhaging support from Shiite and other demographics. Hezbollah has exploited the collapse of Lebanon’s institutions to expand parallel institutions of its own.
The apparent strength of Tehran’s regional proxies is in fact weakness. In Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and inside Iran itself, the Islamic Republic’s agents can deploy naked force, corruption and blackmail to dominate the political arena — but at the cost of any support they originally enjoyed.
The rapturous welcome that Shiite citizens in Basra gave to Gulf Arabs attending the Arabian Gulf Cup was one example of the longing of citizens in Iranian satellite states to break Tehran’s grip and re-embrace their Arab identity. Video footage shows emotional Basrawis singing and crying at the sight of significant numbers of Khaleejis arriving in their city for the first time in decades.
In all these nations, such dynamics are already playing themselves out, meaning that Hezbollah, the Hashdin Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen are living on borrowed time. A time is coming when Khomeinist theology must crawl back down the dark hole from which it emerged.
Four years into its financial and political meltdown, it’s a miracle that Lebanon can function at any level, although day-by-day society continues to fragment. But the real miracle will come when Lebanon finally succeeds in liberating itself from Hezbollah, and this insufferable nightmare comes to an end.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 23-24/2023
U.S., Israel launch week of major military exercises
Phil Stewar/WASHINGTON (Reuters)/January 23, 2023
The United States and Israel on Monday launched what one U.S. official described as the allies' most significant joint military exercise to date, involving thousands of forces, a dozen ships and 142 aircraft, including nuclear-capable bombers. The "Juniper Oak" drills, which will run through Friday, are meant to demonstrate and deepen integration between the U.S. and Israeli militaries, the senior U.S. defense official said, and come at a time of growing tension over Iran's nuclear program. Although the drills will likely draw interest from Tehran, the U.S. official said there would be no mockups of Iranian targets and that the exercises weren't oriented around any particular adversary. "I do think that the scale of the exercise is relevant to a whole range of scenarios, and Iran may draw certain inferences from that," the official acknowledged. "It's really meant mostly to kick the tires on our ability to do things at this scale with the Israelis against a whole range of different threats."The exercises will include live-fire exercises and involve 6,400 U.S. forces, many of which will be aboard the U.S. aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush strike group. Some 450 troops on the ground in Israel, the official said. Beyond B-52 bombers, the U.S. aircraft will include F-35s, F-15s, F-16s and F-18s. Drills will take place over large distances, involving land, sea, air and space, the official said.
The planning for the exercises began only a couple of months ago, before conservative Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regained top office on Dec. 29. Israel has opposed U.S. President Joe Biden's attempts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, concerned that it would not stop Tehran's development of a nuclear weapon. But those negotiating efforts have been set aside for now while Washington pressures Iran to stop providing drones to Russia for use in its war against Ukraine and seeks to stop a crackdown on Iranian demonstrators. The senior U.S. official said America's commitment to Israel's security was "ironclad.""We have Israeli governments of one flavor or the other. They come and go. But what doesn't change is our ironclad commitment to Israel's security," the official said. "So this is a sign that we continue to have Israel's back at a time where there's a lot of turbulence and instability across the region."
The Iranian nuclear program remains a concern. "I think it's fair to say Iran's nuclear program is more advanced now than it's ever been. Their breakout time lines are more compressed. Their knowledge and know-how has gone up," the official said. "So the challenge has gone up." The official said the drills would show how the United States could effectively surge large numbers of battle-ready forces into the Middle East, even as Washington focuses on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and intensifying competition with China. "As our adversaries and competitors are sizing up the U.S. military, I suspect they will take note of our ability to do this because, frankly, no other military on Earth could do this," the official said. "Not while they're doing everything else that we're doing around the globe."

Blinken demands that Azerbaijan open disputed corridor to Armenia
Tracy Wilkinson/ Los Angeles Times./January 23, 2023
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has been urged by U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken to reopen the Lachin Corridor. (Associated Press)
Wading into a festering conflict in the volatile Caucasus region, the United States' top diplomat on Monday demanded that Azerbaijan open a disputed corridor to Armenia before its closure results in a humanitarian disaster. The Lachin Corridor is the only land link between Armenia and the breakaway enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is located within Azerbaijan but populated by ethnic Armenians. The two countries have frequently clashed over the territory; a war two years ago killed nearly 7,000 soldiers and displaced tens of thousands of civilians in a matter of weeks. U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken telephoned Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, to urge “the immediate reopening” of the four-mile corridor to commercial traffic, spokesman Ned Price said. “He underscored that the risk of a humanitarian crisis … undermined prospects for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan," Price said. The Biden administration is under pressure from some members of Congress who have voiced support for Armenian causes, such as labeling the early 20th century slaughter of Armenians under the Ottoman Empire a genocide. In a letter to Blinken 11 days ago, Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, accused Azerbaijan of blocking the movement of 120,000 Nagorno-Karabakh residents, “effectively holding them hostages.”“This blockade is imposing devastation on an already vulnerable region,” Menendez wrote, by creating severe food and medicine shortages over the last month. The letter was co-signed by Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee. Azerbaijan maintains that transit is being disrupted by protesters who are angry over illegal mining in the area, purportedly by Armenians. But Menendez, other U.S. and European officials and pro-Armenia activists in the U.S. say the blame lies with Aliyev. The truce in late 2020 was brokered in large part by Russia, which deployed a contingent of troops to keep the peace. However, by most accounts, they have not acted to open the corridor, leading to questions about their role. Some observers think the war in Ukraine has sapped Russia’s willingness to provide robust monitoring in Azerbaijan and Armenia. But officials in the U.S. and in Europe worry that Azerbaijan and Armenia could easily slip back into armed conflict, which could spark a wider war. Russia was traditionally an ally of Armenia, while Azerbaijan is backed by NATO member Turkey. As a further complication, the U.S. is at odds with Turkey on several issues, including NATO expansion and fighter jets that Ankara wants to purchase; additionally, Turkey has become increasingly friendly with Moscow. Blinken met with the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in September on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. A brief spasm of deadly fighting had broken out. But the meeting apparently produced little more than a pledge to work for peace, without a road map for doing so.

Kuwait PM submits cabinet resignation
Arab News/January 23, 2023
Resignation comes less than four months after the government was sworn in
DUBAI: Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmad Nawaf Al-Sabah on Monday submitted the resignation of his cabinet to Crown Prince Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, Kuwait News Agency reported. Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs Barrak Al-Shaitan said the resignation was due to a deadlock reached on various issues with the legislative authority during the first session of the National Assembly’s 17th legislative term. The minister expressed confidence the crown prince would take necessary action that served the best interests of the country. The resignation comes less than four months after the government was sworn in.

Iraqi PM replaces Central Bank governor over currency drop
Naharnet/January 23, 2023
Iraq's prime minister on Monday replaced the governor of the country's Central Bank following a weekslong plunge of the Iraqi dinar, the state news agency reported. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani made the move after the governor, Mustafa Ghaleb Mukheef, told him he no longer wishes to stay in the job, the Iraqi News Agency said. Mukheef, who was in the post since 2020, was replaced by Muhsen al-Allaq, a former central bank governor, the agency added. The dinar hit new lows on Friday, reaching about 1,670 to the dollar. The currency has lost nearly 7% of its value since mid-November. The official rate stands at 1,470 dinars to the dollar. The drop in the past two months has affected markets in the oil-rich but corruption-plagued Iraq, where many are seeing their purchasing power take a hit. Some Iran-backed politicians in Iraq have blamed the drop on recent measures by the U.S. Treasury. The United States has sanctioned several Iraqi banks dealing mainly with Iran, which is under Americans sanctions, amid concerns that hard currency is being routed from Iraq to Iran. Late last year, the Federal Reserve began taking measures on transactions to slow the flow of dollars into Iraq.
The drop comes at a time when Iraq's foreign currency reserves are standing at a record high of around $100 billion.

EU agrees new Iran sanctions, won't label Guards as 'terrorist' for now
BRUSSELS (Reuters)/Mon, January 23, 2023
The European Union on Monday introduced new sanctions against Iran for a "brutal" crackdown on protests, but the bloc's top diplomat said the country's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) cannot be listed as a terrorist group without a court decision. Relations between the 27-nation EU and Tehran have deteriorated during stalled efforts to revive talks on its nuclear programme, worsening further as Iran has moved to detain several European nationals. The bloc has also become increasingly critical of the continuing violent treatment of domestic protesters, including executions, and the transfer of Iranian drones to Russia. Sweden, which currently holds the EU's rotating presidency, said the bloc's foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday "adopted a new package of sanctions against Iran, targeting those driving the repression." "The EU strongly condemns the brutal and disproportionate use of force by the Iranian authorities against peaceful protesters," said Sweden's Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom, according to a Twitter post by the country's EU diplomatic mission. EU diplomats told Reuters last week the bloc was set to add 37 names to a blacklist of Iranian people and entities banned from travelling to Europe and subject to an asset freeze. The European Parliament has called on the EU to go further and list the IRGC as a terrorist entity, blaming it for the clampdown on protests now into their fourth month and the supply of drones for Russia's war against Ukraine. The IRGC was set up shortly after the 1979 Islamic Revolution to protect the Shi'ite clerical ruling system. It has an estimated 125,000-strong military with army, navy and air units, and commands the Basij religious militia often used in crackdowns. "The Iranian regime, the Revolutionary Guards terrorise their own population day after day," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told Monday's meeting. But the EU's top diplomat said a court ruling with a concrete legal condemnation had to first be handed down in a member country before the EU itself could apply any such designation. "It is something that cannot be decided without a court... decision first. You cannot say I consider you a terrorist because I don't like you," Josep Borrell told reporters on the sidelines of the Brussels talks. The ministers were meeting in the EU political hub where thousands took to the streets a day before to protest against the detention in Iran of Belgian aid worker Olivier Vandecasteele. Iran earlier warned the EU against designating the IRGC as a terrorist entity.

EU plans more Iran sanctions; won't list Revolutionary Guard
BRUSSELS (AP)/Mon, January 23, 2023
The European Union is set Monday to impose sanctions on several more Iranian officials suspected of playing a role in the crackdown on protesters, but won't add the Islamic Republic’s Revolutionary Guard to the EU’s terror group blacklist. The 27-nation bloc has already imposed three rounds of sanctions on Iranian officials and organizations — including government ministers, military officers and Iran’s morality police — for human rights abuses over the protests that erupted in Iran in mid-September over the death of Mahsa Amini. The 22-year-old woman died after being arrested by the morality police for allegedly violating the Islamic Republic’s strict dress code. Women have played a leading role in the protests, with many publicly removing the compulsory Islamic headscarf, known as the hijab. At least four people have been executed since the demonstrations began, following rapid, closed-door trials. At least 519 people have been killed and more than 19,200 others arrested, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that’s been monitoring the rallies. The movement has become one of the greatest challenges to Iran’s Shiite theocracy since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. While EU foreign ministers, meeting in Brussels, will target more officials with travel bans and asset freezes, they won't move forward on blacklisting the Guard, despite last week’s appeal from the European Parliament for them to do so. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who chaired the meeting, said that this could only happen once a court in a member country hands down a ruling condemning the Guard for terror acts. “It is something that cannot be decided without a court decision first,” he told reporters. European officials also fear that blacklisting the Guard would all but end the slim hopes the bloc might have of resuscitating the Iran nuclear agreement, which has been on ice since the Trump administration withdrew from the internationally-backed accord in 2018. Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg expressed regret about Tehran’s recent actions, and backed the plan to impose new sanctions. Iran, Schallenberg said, “is on a collision course, with not only the international community, as far as the safeties of the nuclear program are concerned, but also with its own people, with the brutal crackdown of the civil society movement.”

US Hits Iran with New Sanctions over Crackdown on Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 January, 2023
The United States on Monday imposed sanctions on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Cooperative Foundation and senior Iranian officials, stepping up pressure on Tehran over its crackdown on protests. The move, taken in coordination with Britain and the European Union, is the latest Washington response to the Iranian deadly clampdown on unrest after the death of young Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in morality police custody in September. The protests by Iranians from all walks of life mark one of the boldest challenges to the ruling theocracy since the 1979 revolution. Iran accuses Western powers of fomenting the unrest, which security forces have met with deadly violence. Monday's action targets a "key economic pillar of the IRGC, which funds much of the regime’s brutal suppression; as well as senior security officials coordinating Tehran’s crackdown at the national and provincial levels," the US Treasury Department said in a statement. Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Treasury described the IRGC Cooperative Foundation as an economic conglomerate established by senior officials of the group to manage its investments and presence in sectors of Iran's economy.
The Treasury accused the IRGC Cooperative Foundation of having become "a wellspring of corruption and graft" and said funds from it have supported the IRGC's military adventures abroad. The IRGC Cooperative Foundation was previously designated by Washington under different sanctions authorities, but was designated under a human rights authority in Monday's action. Washington accused the IRGC of continuing to aggressively crack down on peaceful demonstrations and said it has played "a leading role in suppressing protests through extensive human rights abuses."
Also targeted in Monday's action were five of the IRGC Cooperative Foundation's board members, Deputy Minister of Intelligence and Security Naser Rashedi, and four senior IRGC commanders in Iran, the Treasury said. "Along with our partners, we will continue to hold the Iranian regime accountable so long as it relies upon violence, sham trials, the execution of protestors, and other means of suppressing its people," the Treasury's Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian Nelson, said in the statement. Monday's action freezes any US assets of those designated and generally bars Americans from dealing with them. People who engage in certain transactions with those targeted also risk being hit with sanctions. Britain imposed sanctions on more Iranian individuals and entities on Monday over the country's "brutal repression" of its people. The European Union also introduced new sanctions against Iran on Monday for a "brutal and disproportionate use of force" against protesters.

Britain Sanctions Iranian Figures over Human Rights Violations
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 January, 2023
Britain on Monday sanctioned more Iranian figures over what it said were human rights violations on Iranian people including the recent execution of British-Iranian dual national Alireza Akbari. The sanctions included an asset freeze on Iranian deputy prosecutor general Ahmad Fazelian, who the British foreign office said was responsible for an unfair judicial system that used the death penalty for political purposes. Others sanctioned include Kiyumars Heidari, commander in chief of Iran's ground forces; Hossein Nejat, deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps; the Basij Resistance Force and its deputy commander, Salar Abnoush. The Basij Cooperative Foundation, linked to the Basij militia, and Qasem Rezaei, deputy commander of Iran's law enforcement forces, were also sanctioned. "Those sanctioned today, from the judicial figures using the death penalty for political ends to the thugs beating protestors on the streets, are at the heart of the regime’s brutal repression of the Iranian people," British foreign minister James Cleverly said. "The UK and our partners have sent a clear message through these sanctions that there will be no hiding place for those guilty of the worst human rights violations."

Iran Arrests Three Female Journalists
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 January, 2023
Iranian authorities have arrested three female journalists in the past two days, local media said Monday, amid months of protests triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini. "In the past 48 hours, at least three female journalists, namely Melika Hashemi, Saideh Shafiei and Mehrnoush Zarei, have been arrested in Tehran," reformist newspaper Etemad quoted the Tehran journalists' union as saying. Shafiei is a freelance journalist and novelist, while Zarei writes for various reformist publications and Hashemi works for an outlet named Shahr, according to local media. The paper said the three women had been transferred to Evin prison, where many of those arrested in connection with the protests are being held, AFP reported. It estimated that about 80 journalists have been arrested since the start of the unrest in the country four months ago. No details were given on the reasons for the latest arrests. In late October, more than 300 Iranian journalists signed a statement criticising the authorities for "arresting colleagues and stripping them of their civil rights", local media said at the time.

Iranian Female Political Prisoners Urge End to Protester Executions
London, Paris - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 January, 2023
A group of female political prisoners incarcerated in Iran’s notorious Evin prison have published a letter expressing their condemnation of the regime issuing and implementing death sentences against protesters. So far, Iranian authorities have executed four demonstrators. “We, the political and ideological prisoners in the women's ward of Evin Prison, demand an end to the execution of protesters and an end to unjust sentences of prisoners in Iran,” said the letter signed by 30 prisoners. The women inmates said they had been “sentenced to a total of 124 years in prison through unfair and non-transparent procedures, which is worth a few generations of human life.” Despite coming from different religious and political backgrounds, “we have come together to say ‘no’ to execution. We defend people's right to live in justice.”There have been fewer daily street protests nationwide since November as the authorities seek to quell the protests with methods including capital punishment, which has already seen four protest-related executions. But the anger unleashed by the death in mid-September of Mahsa Amini, who had been arrested for violating the republic’s strict dress rules, has not subsided. At a time of economic crisis, it still poses a potential threat to the regime. The signatories included Franco-Iranian researcher Fariba Adelkhah, arrested in June 2019 and later sentenced to five years in prison for undermining national security, allegations her family has strongly denied. Another is former lawmaker Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was sentenced to five years behind bars in January for “collusion against the security of the country.”Hundreds of people have been killed in Iran after over four months of nationwide antigovernment protests following the death of Amini, with the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA)’s latest tally on Saturday reading at least 525 protestors, including 72 children, have been killed and over 19,500 arrested since the protests began.

European allies urge Germany to let tanks go to Ukraine
BRUSSELS (Reuters)/Mon, January 23, 2023
European foreign ministers, meeting on Monday to discuss aid to Ukraine, pressed Berlin to let countries send German-made Leopard tanks, after Germany appeared to open the door to such shipments by allies. Western countries failed to reach agreement on sending Ukraine heavy battle tanks when they pledged billions of dollars worth of support last week at a U.S. air base in Germany. Germany's Leopard tanks, fielded by armies across Europe, are widely seen as the best fit for Ukraine, but Berlin must authorise their sale and has yet to do so. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Sunday that Berlin would not stand in the way if Poland wanted to send the tanks. Arriving at the meeting in Brussels on Monday, she declined to elaborate on those comments in detail or say if she had been speaking for the whole government, but said it was important to "do everything we can to defend Ukraine". Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrat party argues the West should avoid sudden moves that might escalate the war. But a number of allies reject that position, saying Russia is already fully committed to its assault on Ukraine. "At this point there are no good arguments why battle tanks cannot be provided," Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics said. "The argument of escalation does not work, because Russia continues escalating."Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said the tanks should not be held up one more day, while Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu said Germany, as an "engine of Europe", had particular responsibility to help Ukraine. Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said Russia could win the war if Europeans "don't help Ukraine with what they need now". The EU is considering sending a new tranche of 500 million euros worth of military aid to Kyiv. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said he hoped member states would approve it on Monday, "but I don't know". French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said she was confident the package would be approved. Polish media have reported that Hungary was holding up that package. The Hungarian foreign ministry and government spokesman did not respond to requests for comment on those reports. The ministers will discuss a 10th package of sanctions to take effect next month against Russia, diplomatic sources have told Reuters, though no decisions are expected on Monday. The ministers will also talk about using Russian assets frozen in Europe under sanctions to help rebuild Ukraine. Separately, the foreign ministers are due to add more names to an Iran sanctions list over human rights abuses.

Head of Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine's Donetsk says visited Soledar
(Reuters)/Sun, January 22, 2023
The top Moscow-installed official in the occupied parts of the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine said late on Sunday that he had visited the town of Soledar that Russia claimed to had captured earlier this month. Denis Pushilin, the administrator, published a short video on the Telegram messaging app that showed him driving and walking amidst uninhabited areas and destroyed buildings. "I visited Soledar today," Pushilin said in an accompanying statement. Reuters was not able to independently verify when and where the video was taken. On Jan. 11, the private Russian military group Wagner said it had captured Soledar and Russian-installed authorities in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region said last week they were in control of the salt-mining town. Ukraine has never publicly said that the town was taken by Russian forces. On Sunday, the general staff of its armed forces said in a daily update that Russian forces had fired on Ukrainian positions in the area. In his statement, Pushilin said the Soledar mines were damaged and "difficult" to descend into. The town, together with the city of Bakhmut just to its northeast, has been the focus of intense fighting for months, with Russian proxy forces claiming last week that they had also captured Klishchiivka, a small village near Bakhmut. The so-called Donetsk People's Republic is one of the four regions in Ukraine that Moscow proclaimed as its own in September in an exercise Ukraine and its allies called a "sham," coercive referendum.

Former Wagner commander faces deportation from Norway - Russian rights group
OSLO (Reuters) /Mon, January 23, 2023
A former commander of Russia's Wagner mercenary group who recently fled to Norway has been apprehended by police, an official said on Monday, and a Russian rights group said he had been told he would be deported to Russia. "He is apprehended ... and we are considering whether to seek a court's decision for internment," Police Lawyer Line Isaksen told Reuters, declining to give further details. Andrei Medvedev is a former commander of the Wagner group which is fighting for Russia in the Ukraine war. He fled by crossing the Russian-Norwegian border and has said he is in fear for his life after witnessing the killing and mistreatment of Russian prisoners brought to the front lines in Ukraine to fight for Wagner. Gulagu.net, a Russian group that campaigns for prisoners' rights and has been in contact with Medvedev, said he had been detained and handcuffed on Sunday evening and told he was being taken to a detention centre for subsequent deportation. There was no confirmation from Norwegian authorities of any plan to deport him. Police were not immediately available to comment. The rights group said Medvedev would face "brutal murder and death" for speaking out against Wagner if he was returned to Russia.
"We do not whitewash Medvedev. He has done many bad things in his life," the rights group said. "But he has seen the light, he has realized this, he is ready and willing to cooperate with the world, with the international investigation and with the authorities of Norway, he wants to live and testify" against Wagner and its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, it added. Medvedev is an orphan who joined the Russian army and served time in prison before joining Wagner last July on a four-month contract that he said the group had then repeatedly extended without his consent. He has said he crossed the snowy border into Norway from Russia in the Arctic Circle after climbing through barbed-wire fences and evading a border patrol with dogs.

Lavrov says West prevented negotiations to end Ukraine war
PRETORIA, South Africa (AP)/Mon, January 23, 2023
Moscow was willing to negotiate with Ukraine in the early months of the war but the U.S. and other Western nations advised Kyiv against it, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Monday. Lavrov's remarks on a visit to South Africa were similar to those made last year by Russian President Vladimir Putin that his country was for talks but Ukraine's Western allies prevented that from happening. The U.S. and other Western nations have said that Russia is not serious about negotiations to end the war, set to mark its one-year anniversary next month. “It is well known that we supported the proposal of the Ukrainian side to negotiate early in the special military operation and by the end of March, the two delegations agreed on the principle to settle this conflict," Lavrov said. “It is well known and was published openly that our American, British, and some European colleagues told Ukraine that it is too early to deal, and the arrangement which was almost agreed was never revisited by the Kyiv regime." Russia has repeatedly rejected Ukrainian and Western demands that it withdraw completely from Ukraine as a condition for any negotiations. President Joe Biden has indicated he would be willing to talk with Putin if the Russian leader demonstrated that he seriously wanted to end the invasion. Lavrov is in Pretoria for talks with his South African counterpart Naledi Pandor as Russia pushes to strengthen ties with Africa's most developed country and an historical ally amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. South Africa was seen as the most significant of several African nations to take a neutral stance on the war and refuse to condemn Russia's invasion - to the disappointment of the U.S. and other Western partners who also view South Africa as pivotal to their plans to build relationships in Africa. Lavrov met with Pandor in the South African capital and is expected to visit other African countries on his trip. It’s Lavrov’s second visit to Africa in the space of six months as Russia seeks to rally support. The war in Ukraine and its impact on Africa’s 1.3 billion people, which includes rising global oil and food prices, is expected to take center stage during Lavrov's talks with Pandor. “We are fully alert that conflict, wherever it exists in the world, impacts negatively on all of us, and as the developing world it impacts on us particularly as the African continent," Pandor said. “This is why as South Africa we consistently articulate that we will always stand ready to support the peaceful resolution of conflicts in the continent and throughout the globe." South Africa continues to keep strong bonds with Russia following the Soviet Union's support for the country's current ruling party, the African National Congress, when it was a liberation movement fighting to end the apartheid system of repression against South Africa's Black majority. That relationship is largely what led South Africa to abstain from a United Nations vote last year condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Despite South Africa's expressed neutrality over Ukraine, Lavrov’s visit comes days after the South African armed forces announced they would hold joint drills with the Russian and Chinese navies off its eastern coast next month. Lavrov's visit to Africa last year was closely followed U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's trip to South Africa that was seen as a U.S. bid to counter expanding Russian influence in a strategically important continent. This time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited Senegal and Zambia ahead of an official visit to South Africa starting Wednesday.

Germany and France Push for Huge Spending to Compete With US
Bloomberg/Mon, January 23, 2023
Germany and France warned that European businesses will need to unleash investments on a nearly unparalleled scale to keep from falling behind US and Chinese firms as countries revamp their economies to make them more climate friendly. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron met in Paris Sunday to discuss how the European Union should respond to President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which includes roughly $500 billion in new spending and tax breaks over a decade to benefit US companies. The EU argues that the law, which came into effect this year, doesn’t comply with international rules and would unfairly entice companies to shift investments to the US from Europe. The bloc’s leaders will meet next month to discuss their options, one of which is to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization. “The first thing is to make sure we as the European Union are not treated worse than immediate neighbors such as Canada and Mexico, for example — that cannot be accepted,” Scholz told a joint news conference with Macron at the Elysee palace, adding that the US has signaled “great understanding” on this point. “I’m currently very confident we’ll reach a necessary understanding during the first part of the year.” Macron added: “We have a real convergence on the responses we’re bringing.”
Subsidy Race
The US law will subsidize energies of the future, from hydrogen to batteries, wind and solar, and will aim to make manufacturing self-reliant and to ensure the country isn’t dependent on China or other nations. Germany and France have urged the US to tweak the law to give European companies more flexibility to take advantage of the credits being offered. But officials in the EU have been growing skeptical that Washington will make meaningful changes and have started mapping out ways to protect European industry. The EU’s response will likely include giving member states more latitude to invest in their own companies and would redirect existing EU money to firms in need. They’ll also discuss how far-reaching any plan will be and, importantly, if it will include new money. European Council President Charles Michel is proposing several steps to strengthen the bloc’s economies, including a new bond program to even out the different financial situations of EU member states. A successor to the social bonds of the SURE program would allow cash-strapped governments to make more green investments, Michel said in an interview with Handelsblatt and other European newspapers published on Sunday.
As part of a push to diversify away from Russian energy sources, Macron said a planned undersea pipeline connecting Barcelona and Marseille destined to carry hydrogen will be extended to include Germany. The project, known as BarMar or H2Med, aims to link Portugal and Spain to France to transport about 10% of the EU’s hydrogen needs by 2030.
European Response
The US climate law and the developing European response has sparked fears of tit-for-tat subsidies and a new protectionism that splits the global economy and drives up prices for consumers. But Scholz has said that he doesn’t think the green push will spark a trade war between the transatlantic allies. The EU’s competition chief Margrethe Vestager has cautioned that too much national support for companies could disadvantage smaller and poorer countries that have less fiscal capacity. Germany and France, the EU’s two largest economies, have benefited the most after the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, eased existing rules to help firms grapple with high energy costs. Six countries — Denmark, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden — have already urged the European Commission to exercise great caution when changing the EU’s temporary crisis framework. They have warned about the risk of fragmentation of the internal market, harmful subsidy races and weaker regional development.

Russia claims that it was ready to strike an early peace deal with Ukraine but the West ruined it
Joshua Zitser/Business Insider/Mon, January 23, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in April 2018.Sergei Ilnitsky/Pool Photo via AP, File
Russia's foreign minister said Russia was open to negotiating with Ukraine in the early months of the war. Sergey Lavrov blamed the US and other Western nations for blocking peace talks. At the time, Western leaders urged Ukraine to approach negotiations cautiously.
Russia was open to negotiating with Ukraine shortly after it launched its offensive last year, but the United States and other Western allies advised Kyiv against holding talks, Russia's foreign minister claimed on Monday. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov blamed the West for the stalled talks during a visit to Pretoria, South Africa, as part of a Russian push to strengthen ties with the African nation, per The Washington Post. "It is well known that we supported the proposal of the Ukrainian side to negotiate early in the special military operation and by the end of March, the two delegations agreed on the principle to settle this conflict," said Lavrov, per The Post. "It is [also] well known and was published openly that our American, British, and some European colleagues told Ukraine that it is too early to deal, and the arrangement which was almost agreed was never revisited by the Kyiv regime," he added. In the weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, a number of fruitless peace talks took place as Russia continued to bomb Ukrainian cities.Toward the end of March, highly anticipated negotiations took place in Istanbul, Turkey, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said showed "positive" signs. Ukrainian negotiators agreed to a neutral status if Ukraine received adequate security guarantees from the West, bowing to a major Russian demand. Meanwhile, Moscow agreed to "fundamentally cut back" military activity near Kyiv and Chernihiv, which Russian Deputy Minister of Defence Alexander Fomin said was to "increase mutual trust."However, Zelenskyy expressed some skepticism, saying: "Ukrainians are not naive people."The talks did not lead to peace, or even a ceasefire, with Russian President Vladimir Putin saying on April 12 that negotiations had reached a "dead end." Lavrov told Russian media in April that a decision to halt talks was taken on the advice of American and British "colleagues" — a line he has since maintained. According to Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian media outlet, the talks were called off after Zelenskyy was visited by Johnson, then the UK's prime minister, who advised that Putin was a war criminal who should not be negotiated with. At the time Ukraine was also gathering evidence of war crimes following the Bucha massacre in late March, according to the media outlet. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have shown signs that a diplomatic resolution to the war is now forthcoming. The New York Times reported in December that both Ukraine and Russia have insisted that they are willing to engage in peace talks, but both are offering hard-line terms for sitting down at the negotiating table. Ukraine proposed a peace summit in February 2022, based on the principles of a 10-point peace plan, but said it would only allow Russia to participate if it takes part in a war-crimes tribunal, per the Associated Press. Russia, meanwhile, has said that Ukraine would need to accept Russia's annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia as part of any peace agreement.

Sweden’s NATO Bid in Doubt After Erdogan Refuses Support
Firat Kozok and Selcan Hacaoglu/Bloomberg/January 23, 2023
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ruled out supporting Sweden’s bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, venting anger following a burning of Islam’s holy book in Stockholm at the weekend. “If you cannot show this respect, then sorry but you will not see any support from us on the NATO issue,” Erdogan said after a cabinet meeting in Ankara Monday, without indicating whether or not that meant the door for negotiation was now closed. “Those who promote and turn a blind eye to this perversion have undoubtedly taken into account its consequences,” he said. Turkey Cancels Swedish Minister Visit in Fresh Koran Tension. Erdogan’s comments render Sweden and neighboring Finland’s efforts to join NATO a more distant prospect, given the approval of Turkey’s parliament is required for the move to go ahead. 28 of 30 NATO members have ratified the Nordic applications, and Hungary has said it plans to do so at the opening of parliament next month. That would leave Turkey as the lone holdout to the expansion, which NATO diplomats had hoped to finalize in time for the alliance’s summit in Vilnius in July.
Erdogan Keeps World Guessing as Turkey Stalls NATO Expansion
Turkey had agreed in principle to NATO allies including the US inviting Sweden and Finland to join the group, but went on to demand concessions from Sweden. Those included a broader crackdown on Kurdish groups that Turkey considers terrorist organizations alongside the extradition of suspects.
US Steps Up Pressure on Turkey to Ratify NATO’s Nordic Expansion
Turkey is sensitive about any hostile act toward Islam, and the president is looking to strengthen support from nationalists and the religiously conservative ahead of elections slated for May. Danish far-right activist Rasmus Paludan set fire to a copy of the Koran near the Turkish embassy in central Stockholm on Saturday. Paludan, 41, who also has Swedish citizenship, has made a name for himself through a number of provocative Koran burnings, which last year led to protests and riots in Swedish suburbs where many residents are Muslim. Paludan, who has been convicted of racism and defamation in Denmark, told a populist right-wing news site before the event that his aim is to promote freedom of expression.
Part of Democracy
“Freedom of expression is a fundamental part of democracy, but what is legal is not necessarily appropriate,” Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on Twitter on Saturday. “Burning books that are holy to many is a deeply disrespectful act. I want to express my sympathy for all Muslims who are offended.”Turkey canceled a planned visit by Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson after the incident, which followed the hanging of an effigy of Erdogan in Stockholm by protesters affiliated with Kurdish movements. Asked on Monday about Erdogan’s comments, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto called the burning “an unfortunate event” but that “security in the entire NATO area” should be the priority. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he’s in close contact with officials in Sweden, Finland and Turkey. “Of course I am against the kind of behavior that we have seen on the streets of Stockholm but this is not something that is illegal and freedom of speech is a very precious right,” he said, speaking through a translator. Sweden has insisted that it’s in compliance with an agreement hammered out at NATO’s June summit in Madrid last year, which allowed the expansion process to move forward.
“If you love and protect members of the terrorist organization and enemies of Islam so much, then we advise them to refer the defense of their country to them,” Erdogan said.
--With assistance from Beril Akman, Leo Laikola, Niclas Rolander, Kati Pohjanpalo and Iain Rogers.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 23-24/2023
خالد أبو طعمة من معهد جيتستون الدول العربية ليست منزعجة فقط من جهود إيران لامتلاك أسلحة نووية، ولكن أيضًا من تدخلها المستمر في الشؤون الداخلية لسوريا ولبنان واليمن والعراق.
Iran’s Newest Commitments: Arab countries are not only disturbed about Iran’s efforts to obtain nuclear weapons but also its ongoing meddling in the internal affairs of Syria Lebanon Yemen & Iraq
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/January 23, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115182/115182/
The Arabs are not only disturbed about Iran’s efforts to obtain nuclear weapons, but also its ongoing meddling in the internal affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.
In a sign reflecting the Arab concern over the Biden administration’s perceived lenient policy towards the mullahs and their nuclear ambitions, Egypt and Saudi Arabia announced in mid-January that they have “agreed on the need for Iran to fully respect its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in a way that prevents it from acquiring nuclear weapons.”
“[W]e need negotiations on specific issues that allow us to eliminate security risks, support stability and bring an end to Iran’s interference in Arab affairs.” — Tariq Al-Homayed, Saudi journalist, former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, January 15, 2023.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran will continue supporting the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon and Palestine.” — Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahain, iranintel.com, January 13, 2023.
The mullahs are telling the Arabs that they can continue barking to their hearts’ content, but Iran will do whatever it wants in their countries.
When the Iranian foreign minister says his country will continue supporting the “resistance” in Lebanon, he means that Tehran will continue to provide weapons and money to Hezbollah, the terrorist organization that effectively controls Lebanon and has turned the country into a state of anarchy and lawlessness.
Like Hezbollah, the Palestinian groups are largely responsible for the misery of the people living under their rule.
“As for foreign policy, ‘Khomeinism’ produced a country that lives in an economic blockade for decades and that no longer knows a language other than weapons for dialogue with its neighbors and countries of the world.” — Baha’ Al-Awwam, Syrian journalist, Al-Ain, December 3, 2022.
“During the era of former US President Barack Obama, the US wanted to unleash the hand of political Islam in the region, so it supported the ‘sons of Khomeini’ and ‘the grandchildren of [Muslim Brotherhood founder] Hassan al-Banna
It seems as though the Obama and Biden administrations are ultimately willing to agree to almost anything the mullahs want and throw in a trillion dollars if the mullahs just please do not use their nuclear weapons — as Obama candidly put it in 2015 — “on my watch.”
Arab countries are not only disturbed about Iran’s efforts to obtain nuclear weapons, but also its ongoing meddling in the internal affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.
The Arab countries are still extremely anxious about the possibility that the Biden administration will return to the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JCPOA — signed in 2015 between Tehran and several world powers, including the US — promises Iran’s regime, after a short time, the ability to possess as many nuclear weapons as it likes, the missiles to deliver them, and no constraints on its terrorism or “revolutionary” expansionism.
In 2018, then US President Donald J. Trump withdrew from the JCPOA after realizing that it failed to curtail Iran’s nuclear weapons program, missile program or regional aggression and terrorism.
In the past year, reports about the possibility that the Biden administration was working to revive the Iran nuclear deal has sparked fear among many Arabs and Muslims, who have criticized the US for embarking on a policy of appeasement towards the regime of the mullahs in Tehran.
In the past few months, there have been a few intimations that the prospects of reviving the nuclear deal were slim. “The nuclear talks are “not our focus right now,” US negotiator Robert Malley said in the aftermath of the widespread anti-regime protests in Iran and the brutal crackdown on protesters, including the execution of some of the demonstrators, including a dual-national Englishman. The Arabs did not fail to notice the tell-tale “right now.”
That, plus the appearance of lack of progress in the talks between the US and the major powers and Iran to renew the deal — as well as reports of a recent meeting between Malley and Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Saeed Iravani — have failed to reassure many Arabs, especially those facing direct threats from the mullahs and their proxies in the Middle East. Iran’s proxies include Hamas; the Palestinian Islamic Jihad; Hezbollah, especially in Lebanon and the Houthi militia in Yemen.
The Arabs are not only disturbed about Iran’s efforts to obtain nuclear weapons, but also its ongoing meddling in the internal affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.
In a sign reflecting the Arab concern over the Biden administration’s perceived lenient policy towards the mullahs and their nuclear ambitions, Egypt and Saudi Arabia announced in mid-January that they have:
“agreed on the need for Iran to fully respect its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in a way that prevents it from acquiring nuclear weapons and… agreed to support Arab efforts to urge Iran to adhere to international principles of non-interference in the affairs of Arab countries, preserve the principles of good neighborliness, and spare the region all destabilizing activities, including support for armed militias, as well as threatening maritime navigation and international trade lines.”
Referring to Iran and its terrorist militias, Egypt and Saudi Arabia said: “The two sides stressed the rejection of any attempts by regional parties to interfere in the internal affairs of Arab countries or threaten their stability and undermine the interests of their peoples, whether through the tools of ethnic and sectarian incitement, or the tools of terrorism and terrorist groups, or through expansionist visions that do not respect the sovereignty of states.”
Commenting on the Egyptian-Saudi announcement, Saudi journalist Tariq Al-Homayed, a former editor-in-chief of the newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat pointed out the significance of the statement, issued after a meeting of the Follow-Up and Political Consultation Committee headed by Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan and his Egyptian counterpart, Sameh Shoukry.
“This is a clear and precise statement. It answers several points that have been obscured by what I call ‘news- washing,’ be it about relations with Iran, its spheres of influence, or even its occupation of the region, from Syria to Lebanon and from Iraq to Yemen.”
Al-Homayed noted that the mullahs have repeatedly expressed a desire over the past few months to improve their relations with Saudi Arabia.
“No one wants absolute enmity with Iran. This does not mean that there ought to be negotiations that grant the Mullah regime the legitimacy it has lost at home. Instead, we need negotiations on specific issues that allow us to eliminate security risks, support stability and bring an end to Iran’s interference in Arab affairs. Thus, the Saudi-Egyptian statement is important and serves as a reminder of the positions of Riyadh and Cairo on urgent issues, and an indication of the coordination required for the region and its stability.”
The Egyptian-Saudi stance was not the first Arab expression of mistrust over Iran’s disastrous actions and policies.
In September 2022, the foreign ministers Arab League countries condemned Iran’s interference in Arab states’ internal affairs and considered such acts a violation of international law and the principle of good-neighborhood and sovereignty.
The ministers demanded that Iran halt its “provocative acts, which undermine confidence building measures and threaten security and stability in the region. They demanded that Iran abstain from supporting and funding of militias and armed parties in the Arab countries.”
The Arab ministers, in addition, condemned the continued attacks using Iranian-made drones and missiles against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, launched from Yemeni territory by the Iran-backed Houthis militia, dubbing them a “flagrant aggression and a threat to the Arab national security.”
The ministers called on Iran to withdraw its militias and armed elements from all Arab states and underlined the need to monitor Iranian actions and attempts to undermine security and stability in the Middle East. They further called for intensifying diplomatic efforts by the Arab countries to highlight the practices of the Iranian regime and its support for violence, sectarianism and terrorism and its threat to regional and international security.”
In a message to the Biden administration, the Arab ministers stressed the importance of taking into consideration the concerns of the Arab countries towards the attempts to revive the nuclear deal with Iran: “Any agreement with Iran should include stronger provisions related to its ballistic missile program and explosive drones, which are provided to terrorist militias.”
They also urged the international community to extend the arms embargo on Iran and warned that lifting the embargo will lead to further “ruin and destruction.”
Yet it would be naïve, if not downright foolish, to think that the mullahs in Tehran would be afraid or deterred by Arab statements and warnings. In fact, shortly after Egypt and Saudi Arabia issued their warning about Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian traveled to Lebanon, where he met with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad Secretary-General Ziyad Al-Nakhalah, as well as senior Lebanese government officials.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran will continue supporting the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon and Palestine,” Amir-Abdollahian said during the visit.
The Iranian foreign minister ‘s Beirut visit and his statement are a direct response to the Egyptian-Saudi warning about Tehran. The mullahs are telling the Arabs that they can continue barking to their hearts’ content, but Iran will do whatever it wants in their countries. The mullahs are making clear their intention to continue meddling in the internal affairs of the Arab countries, notwithstanding the opinions of the Arabs.
When the Iranian foreign minister says his country will continue supporting the “resistance” in Lebanon, he means that Tehran will continue to provide weapons and money to Hezbollah, the terrorist organization that effectively controls Lebanon and has turned the country into a state of anarchy and lawlessness.
When he talks about Iranian support for the “resistance in Palestine,” the minister means his country will continue to support the terrorism of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad against Israel. The two terror groups, based in the Gaza Strip, are responsible for thousands of terror attacks against Israel. Like Hezbollah, the Palestinian groups are largely responsible for the misery of the people living under their rule.
“Everything about the Iranian leadership changes with the times, but it does not affect the mentality in which it has been ruling since 1979,” wrote Syrian journalist Baha’ Al-Awwam.
“The logic of the ‘Islamic Revolution’ calls for confronting the people with iron and fire. As for its neighbors, logic states that Iran must deal with them through intrigues and threats. In international politics, there is nothing better than having a nuclear weapon to blackmail the world. What did the internal politics of the ‘Islamic Revolution’ produce? The answer is a miserable people who feel injustice, and a leadership that is afraid, day and night, of a rebellion here and a protest there. As for foreign policy, ‘Khomeinism’ produced a country that lives in an economic blockade for decades and that no longer knows a language other than weapons for dialogue with its neighbors and countries of the world.”
Al-Awwam went on to note that during the past four decades the Iranian leadership has never distinguished between war and peace, not even in 2015 when it signed the nuclear deal with the major powers.
“That agreement was an American reward for Tehran for years of aggressive behavior in the region, in exchange for it stopping building the nuclear bomb for a period of time. During the era of former US President Barack Obama, the US wanted to unleash the hand of political Islam in the region, so it supported the ‘sons of Khomeini’ and ‘the grandchildren of [Muslim Brotherhood founder] Hassan al-Banna.'”
In light of the continued warnings by the Arabs, it remains to be seen whether the Biden administration and other Western parties will wake up to the fact that Iran’s mullahs cannot be trusted. The Arabs are telling the West that they should not trust the mullahs because they continue to threaten peace and stability in the Middle East while pretending that Tehran seeks peace with the Arab countries.
It seems as though the Obama and Biden administrations are ultimately willing to agree to almost anything the mullahs want and throw in a trillion dollars if the mullahs just please do not use their nuclear weapons — as Obama candidly put it in 2015 — “on my watch.”
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19339/iran-newest-commitments

Will Putin survive his 'catastrophic' Ukraine war?
Peter Weber/The Week/January 23, 2023
When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his three-pronged invasion of neighboring Ukraine in February 2022, his goal was to erase Ukraine as a sovereign nation in a matter of days. At the time, it seemed a plausible goal, in Russia and in the West. Nearly a year later, Ukraine's survival is a much safer bet than Putin's.Ukraine has systemically and strategically taken back half the territory Russia seized, inflicting humiliating loss after debilitating setback. As Ukraine's battlefield victories pile up, the U.S. and its NATO allies are giving it increasingly sophisticated weapons. "If 2023 continues as it began, there is a good chance Ukraine will be able to fulfill President Volodymyr Zelensky's New Year's pledge to retake all of Ukraine by the end of the year — or at least enough territory to definitively end Russia's threat," writes Liz Sly at The Washington Post.Meanwhile, Russia's sanctions-slammed economy struggles to churn out or import new munitions, and its heavy battlefield losses have prompted Putin to institute an unpopular draft. War is unpredictable, and Ukraine's blood and gifted treasure are not infinite. But if Russia, the erstwhile superpower, does lose its war in Ukraine, will that end Putin's grip on power? Or his lease on life? In other words, will Putin survive his invasion of Ukraine?There are a number of ways Putin's war can ruin Russia — it is already "turning Russia into a failed state, with uncontrolled borders, private military formations, a fleeing population, moral decay, and the possibility of civil conflict," Arkady Ostrovsky writes at The Economist — but there are really only three ways it can topple Putin himself: He could die, resign, or be involuntarily retired.
Putin's life
Putin fashions himself a physically fit, hockey-playing judo champion who hunts wild game and occasionally rides shirtless on a horse. But as he emerged from extreme COVID-19 isolation, rumors started spreading that he was ill or even dying.
Valery Solovey, a Russian political analyst and Kremlin critic, alleged in 2020 that Putin had cancer and Parkinson's disease and had undergone emergency surgery sometime that year. New Lines magazine reported in May 2022 that "a growing chorus of those close to Putin or in his domestic intelligence apparatus" are murmuring about his poor health, and an unidentified "oligarch close to the Kremlin" had been secretly recorded describing Putin as "very ill with blood cancer.""The evidence for the preponderance of disparate if not contradictory claims of Putin's imminent demise is Putin himself," Michael Weiss wrote at New Lines. "He certainly looks bad. The bullfrog mien, awkward gait, fidgety behavior at televised events." Putin "really does not feel very well," especially after Russia's military defeats, Solovey told Ukraine's UNIAN news agency in November 2022. "He has problems, stomach pains, and so on. Most likely, he has difficulty controlling himself."Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence, told ABC News in January that "Putin is terminally ill, he will die before the war ends and there will be a transfer of power." Based on their human sources, he added, "we think it's cancer."
"There are two ways of explaining why there are so many rumors circulating around Putin's health," The Economist's Arkady Ostrovsky said in June 2022. "One, of course, is political, if you like: So many people around Putin now who realize he has made this extraordinary blunder that has driven Russia into this catastrophic war. There are a lot of people who see and wish for the best way out, which is Putin dying in office." "The other, of course, is the possibility that he is very, very seriously ill," though "we can't verify this," Arkady added. "The fact that they are circulating, however, is politically significant. It is evidence of how brittle this regime is and how quickly it could unravel, how much is held together by Putin, and how many people want him dead."The Kremlin has disputed the health rumors. "In recent months, Ukrainian, American, and British so-called information 'specialists' have thrown around various fakes about the health of the president," Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in July. "But it is nothing but fakes." CIA Director William Burns also threw cold water on the rumors, telling the Aspen Security Forum in July that "there are lots of rumors about President Putin's health and as far as we can tell he's entirely too healthy."
Putin's power
Almost as soon as Putin launched his Ukraine invasion in February 2022, and certainly since it started going poorly, "there has been ongoing deliberation about how long Putin will remain in power, his hypothetical demise an outcome of failing health or domestic political ouster," Shawn Cochran writes in War on the Rocks. Certainly, there is no shortage of people who would be happy to take Putin's place. Abbas Gallyamov, Putin's former speechwriter, told Khodorkovsky Live in January that Putin's inner circle no longer sees "Putin as guarantor of their stability," and they personally fear the rise of Wagner Group mercenary founder Yevgeny Prigozhin. Rather than risk being violently toppled like Libya's Moammar Gadhafi or losing the next election, Putin will anoint a "trusted underling" as the next president, and "get the opportunity to end his days calmly" at his billion-dollar palace on the Back Sea, Gallyamov said.
"I think there are chances Putin could be forced from office," former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, who quit Russia's United Nations mission in May over the war, told Britain's Daily Mail in December 2022. "But first he must be regarded by his own people as a loser, as someone who lied and made them fools," and "that will happen only if he is truly and widely defeated in Ukraine." If that happens, Bondarev said, Putin's elite "may force him to go to sleep and never wake up."So far, Russian nationalists and pro-war military bloggers have kept their strident criticisms of the Ukraine war to the Russian defense ministry and military generals, not Putin. But one prominent military blogger, former Russian militia commander Igor Girkin, "heavily implied" in January that he would support Putin's removal from office, even if such a statement had "suicidal" consequences, the Institute for the Study of War think tank reported. Putin himself "understands that this has been a mess," but "I don't think he's accepted that he is defeated, because the essence of being Putin is never accepting that you've been defeated," military scholar Fred Kagan tells CBS News. "The art here is helping Putin understand that he's lost this round, and it's time to fold this hand," and that's up to Ukraine's military and NATO weapons. "If Putin departs office (voluntarily or not) with the war in Ukraine ongoing, his successor may elect to quit fighting, but the decision will not be easy or risk free, and this holds regardless of who replaces Putin," Cochran writes at War on the Rocks.
Putin's prospects
So, can Putin survive? "By some measures, Russia has already lost this war militarily and politically," Ivan Gomza and Graeme Robertson assess at The Washington Post, and "research suggests that leading a country to defeat in war is politically costly." But "highly personalistic" dictators like Putin "are far less vulnerable to losing office after a defeat in war" than democratically elected leaders, and "so long as Putin continues to provide sizable personal benefits to his close allies, they are likely to hang together, for fear of hanging separately."Still, "Russia has a history of regime change in the aftermath of unsuccessful wars," from the Bolshevik Revolution after the Russo-Japanese War and World War I to the collapse of the Soviet Union following its defeat in Afghanistan, Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage write in Foreign Affairs. "Revolutions have occurred in Russia when the government has failed in its economic and political objectives and has been unresponsive to crises" as its legitimacy is punctured. "Putin is at risk in all these categories," Fix and Kimmage add. "Putin's war in Ukraine was meant to be his crowning achievement, a demonstration of how far Russia had come since the collapse of the Soviet empire in 1991," but he has managed the war poorly, and now the country's economy is in trouble. "In the face of these dismal trends, Putin has doubled down on his errors, all the while insisting that the war is going 'according to plan.'"Russia's economic and battlefield losses have some speculating that Putin's hold on power is weakening, but he's "more secure than most people believe," Maria Snegovaya wrote at the Journal of Democracy in April 2022. "Previous Russian military defeats have brought about social and political change," but not all of them. In the face of defeat, as with Josef Stalin's failure to conquer Finland in 1939-40, Russia's subdued elites may be "unlikely to pose a serious challenge to Putin." And a "debilitated Putin" is not one of Russia's greatest weaknesses, Askold Lozynskyj argues at the Kyiv Post. Those are "that it is a prison of some 100 captive nations, that its economy is not productive, and that due to its lack of financial wherewithal its military might is grossly exaggerated." Putin is "evil," but he's "not delusional," Lozynskyj adds. "He is aware of internal turmoil within an empire which he maintains by force and repression."If it becomes clear Ukraine will not be defeated, the "most likely" scenario is that Putin leaves office, and a "vicious power struggle" ensues between various factions — pro-war right-wing nationalists seeking a reckoning, authoritarian conservatives committed to the status quo, and "semi-democratic" reformers, Alexander J. Motyl counters at Foreign Policy. "We don't know who will win, but we can confidently predict that the power struggle will weaken the regime and distract Russia from what remains of its war effort."

The Crypto Collapse and the End of the Magical Thinking That Infected Capitalism
Mihir A. Desai/The New York Times/Monday, 23 January, 2023
At a guest lecture at a military academy when the price of a single Bitcoin neared $60,000, I was asked, as finance professors often are, what I thought about cryptocurrencies. Rather than respond with my usual skepticism, I polled the students. More than half of attendees had traded cryptocurrencies, often financed by loans. I was stunned. How could this population of young people come to spend time and energy in this way? And these students were hardly alone. The appetite for crypto has been most pronounced among Gen Z and millennials. Those groups became investors in the past 15 years at previously unseen rates and with exceedingly optimistic expectations. I have come to view cryptocurrencies not simply as exotic assets but as a manifestation of a magical thinking that had come to infect part of the generation who grew up in the aftermath of the Great Recession — and American capitalism, more broadly.
For these purposes, magical thinking is the assumption that favored conditions will continue on forever without regard for history. It is the minimizing of constraints and trade-offs in favor of techno-utopianism and the exclusive emphasis on positive outcomes and novelty. It is the conflation of virtue with commerce.
Where did this ideology come from? An exceptional period of low interest rates and excess liquidity provided the fertile soil for fantastical dreams to flourish. Pervasive consumer-facing technology allowed individuals to believe that the latest platform company or arrogant tech entrepreneur could change everything. Anger after the 2008 global financial crisis created a receptivity to radical economic solutions, and disappointment with traditional politics displaced social ambitions onto the world of commerce. The hothouse of Covid’s peaks turbocharged all these impulses as we sat bored in front of screens, fueled by seemingly free money. With Bitcoin now trading at around $17,000, and amid declining stock valuations and tech sector layoffs, these ideas have begun to crack. The unwinding of magical thinking will dominate this decade in painful but ultimately restorative ways — and that unwinding will be most painful to the generation conditioned to believe these fantasies.
Cryptocurrency is the most ideal vessel of these impulses. A speculative asset with a tenuous underlying predetermined value provides a blank slate that meaning can be imposed onto. Crypto boosters have promised to replace governments by supplanting traditional currencies. They vowed to reject the traditional banking and financial system through decentralized finance. They said they could reject the purported stranglehold of internet giants on commerce through something called Web 3.0. They insisted we could reject the traditional path toward success of education, savings and investment by getting in early on dogecoin, a meme coin intended as a joke that reached a peak market capitalization of over $80 billion.
These illusory and ridiculous promises share a common anti-establishment sentiment fueled by a technology that most of us never understood. Who needs governments, banks, the traditional internet or homespun wisdom when we can operate above and beyond?
Mainstream financial markets came to manifest these same tendencies, as magical thinking pervaded the wider investor class. During a period of declining and zero interest rates, mistakes and mediocrities were obscured or forgiven, while speculative assets with low probabilities of far-off success inflated in value enormously. Hawkers pitching shiny new vehicles — like “stablecoins” that purportedly transformed speculative assets into stable ones and novel ways of taking companies public without typical regulatory scrutiny — promised greater returns while dismissing greater risks, a hallmark of the ignorance of trade-offs in magical thinking. For an extended period, many investors bought the equivalent of lottery tickets. And many won.
The real economy could not escape infection. Companies flourished by inflating their scope and ambition to feed the desire for magical thinking. WeWork, a mundane business that provided flexible work spaces, was portrayed as a spiritual enterprise that would remake the human condition. Its valuation soared, obscuring the questionable activities of its founders. Facebook and Google reconceived themselves as technological powerhouses, rebranding as Meta and Alphabet, respectively. They sought broad capabilities that they could flex at will in the metaverse or with their “moonshot projects” when, in fact, they are prosaic (if extremely effective) advertising businesses. They are now struggling with many of their fantastical efforts.
Most broadly, many corporations have come to embrace broader social missions in response to the desire of younger investors and employees to use their capital and employment as instruments for social change. Another manifestation of magical thinking is believing that the best hopes for progress on our greatest challenges — climate change, racial injustice and economic inequality — are corporations and individual investment and consumption choices rather than political mobilization and our communities.
I confess that this screed reflects my own experience. For the past decade, being a finance professor meant being asked about crypto or about novel valuation methods for unprofitable companies — and being smiled at (and ignored) when I would counter with traditional instincts. Every business problem, I am told, can be solved in radically new and effective ways by applying artificial intelligence to ever-increasing amounts of data with a dash of design thinking. Many graduates coming of age in this period of financial giddiness and widening corporate ambition have been taught to chase these glittery objects with their human and financial capital instead of investing in sustainable paths — a habit that will be harder to instill at later ages.
Embracing novelty and ambition in the face of huge problems is to be lauded, but the unhinged variety of these admirable traits that we have seen so much of in recent years is counterproductive. The fundamentals of business have not changed merely because of new technologies or low interest rates. The way to prosper is still by solving problems in new ways that sustainably deliver value to employees, capital providers and customers. Over-promising the scope of change created by technology and the possibilities of business and finance to a new generation will lead only to disaffection as these promises falter. All those new investors and crypto owners may nurse a grudge against capitalism, rather than understand the perverse world they were born into.
The end of magical thinking is upon us as cryptocurrencies and valuations are collapsing — and that is good news. Vested interests will resist that trend by continuing to propagate fictions. But rising rates and a return to more routine business cycles will continue to provide the rude awakening that began in 2022.
What comes next? Hopefully, a revitalization of that great American tradition of pragmatism will follow. Speculative assets without any economic function should be worth nothing. Existing institutions, flawed as they are, should be improved upon rather than displaced. Risk and return are inevitably linked.
Corporations are valuable socially because they solve problems and generate wealth. But they should not be trusted as arbiters of progress and should be balanced by a state that mediates political questions. Trade-offs are everywhere and inescapable. Navigating these trade-offs, rather than ignoring them, is the recipe for a good life.

Iranian regime’s spending priorities remain unchanged
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 23, 2023
President Ebrahim Raisi has introduced the proposed bill for the next budget (starting on March 21) to the Iranian parliament for debate and approval. The bill, including the plan for the new fiscal year, defines the regime’s priorities in light of the current sensitive domestic and overseas economic conditions. Have these conditions influenced the regime's traditional financial priorities, forcing it to alter its outlook?
A budget has two essential components: Revenues and expenditures, which are both forecasted. This bill clarifies the sources for securing revenues, including whether to raise or lower taxes, borrow money, increase oil exports, and so on. The various aspects of expenditure and the proportional increases in allocated funding reflect the regime’s priorities in the coming period. In other words, the expenditure component is indicative of whether or not the regime is willing to prioritize consumer, infrastructure and investment spending over its military, defense or propaganda needs.
Three major observations can be made about the expenditures proposed by the Raisi government. First, they reveal that the regime’s long-held priorities will not change, even if the economic situation worsens. These priorities include defending the regime, as well as its defense-related and ideological orientations.
Second, the budget greatly reduces the real incomes of citizens, pensioners and cash subsidy recipients and it fails to compensate for the high inflation rates. Third, the budget prioritizes ideological defense spending over operational, investment and development-oriented spending, whose absence is one of the motivations for the masses taking to the streets in protest.
Raisi has proposed significant budget increases for the regime’s police and military establishments, as well as for institutions that help to cement the revolutionary ideology and thought. The military’s budget has increased by 36 percent over the previous year. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the law enforcement command, the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics, and the Armed Forces Social Security Investment Company also all received raises. Meanwhile, there were no increases in the budgets of Iran’s regular army, known as the Artesh, or the general staff of the armed forces. Security and defense appropriations account for nearly 18 percent of the total budget, closing the gap with education, which accounts for 19 percent.
The budget increased by 44 percent for the police, 52 percent for the intelligence service, 55 percent for prisons, 53 percent for Islamic propaganda, 60 percent for the Supreme Council for Religious Propaganda, and 33 percent for the Headquarters for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. Appropriations for the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting increased by 47 percent and a separate budget for the Khomeini Mausoleum shot up by 71 percent. There is also extra budgetary revenue that is generated by the regime’s military institutions, such as the IRGC, through smuggling and their own vast business networks.
In regard to wages and subsidies, the bill proposes a 20 percent increase in the salaries of state employees and pensioners. The International Monetary Fund has estimated that inflation will be at least 40 percent in the coming fiscal year. It is noteworthy that the overall inflation rate in 2022 was at least 40 percent, while food, drink and housing inflation rates ranged from 50 percent to 80 percent. This means that the budget has not provided a real increase in salaries.
The current situation in Iran bears a striking resemblance to events in the years prior to 1979.
Despite the fact that the government’s minimum wage in 2022 was 7 million tomans per month ($171 at the free-market exchange rate of 41,000 tomans), it did not compensate state employees and pensioners for inflation hikes. According to the Iranian Ministry of Labor and Welfare, the average poverty line for a family of four was 7.7 million tomans two years ago. The cash subsidies for the poor only increased by 10 percent, which will become far less significant as living standards deteriorate due to rising inflation.
When it comes to production, development and investment spending — in the productive sectors such as industry and agriculture, as well as in healthcare, infrastructure and social welfare — it is clear that, while such sectors receive the majority of the budget, the vast bulk of their expenditure is allocated to operational costs rather than to investment. In other words, these funds are used to simply keep state institutions running by paying wages and covering regular operating expenses. Some of these institutions’ budgets may be reduced in real terms (deducting the rate of inflation expected in the coming year from the increase in the budget). One example is infrastructure development, which will be reduced by 10 percent.
The Raisi government’s revenue projections are optimistic. With sanctions still in place, it is expected that oil revenues will increase by 58 percent, as the country exports 1.5 million barrels per day. Tax revenues are also expected to increase by 57 percent, owing to a 110 percent growth in local borrowing through the sale of government bonds and Islamic sukuks. These projections may be exaggerated because the Raisi government failed to meet last year’s 1.5 million barrels per day target despite increasing oil exports through smuggling. The average daily oil exports hovered barely around 1 million barrels.
Meanwhile, economic forecasts indicate that the world’s major economies will enter a potentially major recession in 2023, reducing oil demand. The expected significant increase in tax revenues is not commensurate with Iran’s deteriorating economic situation, suggesting that the budget will run a significant deficit by the end of next year. To address the budget deficit, the government will have no choice but to print more banknotes, despite the very well-known negative implications for local prices.
Overall, the proposed budget bill indicates that, despite a lack of financial resources and steady economic deterioration, the regime’s spending priorities are fixed, inflexible and completely ignore the demands and needs of the Iranian street. The regime continues to prioritize security, military and ideological expenditure over any increase in spending on development and investment, which the country desperately needs. This spending could increase purchasing power and reduce the growing number of unemployed and those pushed into poverty.
It is worth noting that the current situation in Iran bears a striking resemblance to events in the years prior to the 1979 revolution in terms of the escalating pace of social, economic and political turmoil. Before the 1979 revolution, there had been staggering increases in the price of food and beverages and a sharp rise in house prices, with the scarcity of housing, even of basic apartments, giving rise to the growth of the shantytowns and slums that still exist in southern Tehran. In the three years before the revolution, there were repeated, back-to-back protests. From 1978, the protests became constant, continuing for a year, from January 1978 to February 1979, and eventually led to the overthrow of the shah’s regime.
In the words of Niccolo Machiavelli: “Whoever wishes to foresee the future must consult the past.” There is no doubt that history has lessons to teach those who are willing to learn and perhaps historical episodes paint a picture of future scenarios.
• Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah).Twitter: @mohalsulami