English LCCC Newsbulletin For Le

English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 19/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
I desire mercy, not sacrifice. For I have come to call not the righteous but sinners
Those who are well have no need of a physician, but those who are sick
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 09/09-13/:”As Jesus was walking along, he saw a man called Matthew sitting at the tax booth; and he said to him, ‘Follow me.’ And he got up and followed him. And as he sat at dinner in the house, many tax-collectors and sinners came and were sitting with him and his disciples. When the Pharisees saw this, they said to his disciples, ‘Why does your teacher eat with tax-collectors and sinners?’But when he heard this, he said, ‘Those who are well have no need of a physician, but those who are sick. Go and learn what this means, “I desire mercy, not sacrifice.” For I have come to call not the righteous but sinners.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 18-19/2023
Why EU investigators are questioning Al Mawarid chief in Salameh corruption inquiry
Mikati: Cabinet session not sectarian, electricity issue not fully resolved
French judicial delegation meets Bitar over port blast case
Maronite bishops say Mikati can't convene cabinet without ministers approval
Lebanese Army stops work of Israeli bulldozer over Blue Line breach
Geagea on partitioning accusations: All Lebanese are our people
Caretaker cabinet convenes in second FPM-boycotted session
European investigators quiz Marwan Kheireddine and ex-BDL vice governor
Saved from death after sailing from Lebanon, Syrian refugees face deportation
The probes into Lebanese central bank chief Salameh
The strain between Hezbollah and the Aounists is doing nothing to help Lebanon/Michael Young/The National/January 18/2023
Mikati convenes Cabinet session and urges unity to elect new president

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 18-19/2023
Ukraine helicopter crash kills 16, including interior minister
Ukraine Interior minister, deputy among 18 killed in helicopter crash in Kyiv
Parliament urges EU to list Iran guards as ‘terrorist’
Will a special Ukraine tribunal really happen?
Massive Strikes Sweep Iran’s Oil Industry
Magnitude 5.6 Earthquake Strikes Northwestern Iran
Egyptian-Jordanian-Palestinian Summit Rejects ‘Israeli Unilateralism’
Jordan: Army Foils Drug Smuggling Attempt from Syria
Türkiye, Iran Support Syria's Territorial Integrity, Unity
At Davos, Saudi Arabia says curbing oil dependency a priority
Jordan protests to Israel after envoy blocked from holy site
At Davos, UN chief warns the world is in a 'sorry state'

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 18-19/2023
A 'sea of blood': Iran reveals its new military doctrine - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/January 18/2023
Is it time for UK to shift its engagement with Iran?/Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/January 18, 2023
Whatever we pay our nurses, it is not enough/Ross Anderson/Arab News/January 18, 2023
Far-right Turkish party raising funds to buy bus tickets to send Syrian refugees home/Menekse Tokyay/Arab News/January 18, 2023
Biden's Arms Package for Ukraine Is Long Overdue/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/January 18, 2023
The Islamist Plan to Conquer East Africa: U.S. Missing in Action/Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute./January 18, 2023
“Defenders of the West Makes a Great Gift for the History Lover in Your Life”/Raymond Ibrahim/January 18, 2023
Alliance of the Doomed/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 18/2023

on January 18-19/2023
Why EU investigators are questioning Al Mawarid chief in Salameh corruption inquiry
Nada Maucourant Atallah/The National/January 18/2023
Judicial files seen by The National show Marwan Kheireddine has been quizzed over suspicious transactions as part of Lebanese investigation
A delegation of European judicial officials is moving forward with its investigation into an alleged $330 million corruption case against Lebanon's central bank governor Riad Salameh. Witnesses include Marwan Kheireddine, chief executive of Lebanese Al Mawarid Bank, who was questioned on Tuesday in Beirut for several hours, AFP reported, citing an anonymous official source. Jean Tannous, the judge appointed in 2021 to lead the Lebanese investigation into alleged financial misconduct by Riad Salameh, last year questioned Mr Kheireddine over vast cash withdrawals made from the governor's brother's account at Al Mawarid, according to judicial documents seen by The National. Mr Kheireddine is a former state minister, also known for his close ties with Riad Salameh. He ran for parliament in elections last year but lost to independent candidate Firas Hamdan. He could not be reached immediately for comment.
AFP reported bankers were questioned about the Lebanese bank accounts of the governor's brother, Raja Salameh, as well as money transferred abroad to Riad Salameh. Six European countries have opened investigations since 2020 into the Banque du Liban (BDL) governor over the alleged embezzlement of more than $330 million through a brokerage contract awarded to his brother's company, Forry Associates, in 2002. Banks were unwittingly paying commissions to Forry each time they bought Banque du Liban's financial products — certificates of deposit, Eurobonds and Treasury bills. European investigators tracked an alleged money-laundering scheme, from a BDL account which paid the commissions to fund luxurious properties in Europe for Riad Salameh and his entourage, judicial documents seen by The National reveal. Both brothers deny any wrongdoing. Riad Salameh, who has not been convicted of any crimes, rejects the accusation of embezzlement, stressing that the commissions in question were not deemed public funds.
Is Al Mawarid involved?
According to documents from the Lebanese judicial file, which was shared with the EU investigation, Al Mawarid is suspected to have played a role in the alleged laundering scheme. It is reported that Raja Salameh has three accounts at Al Mawarid, which yielded a "very high return on investments", wrote Mr Tannous, "so that $15 million initially invested became $150 million", between 1993 and the closure of the account in September 2019. This was only a month before the country entered a steep liquidity crisis, which led Lebanese banks to impose draconian limits on withdrawals and transfers abroad outside any legal framework. The Lebanese prosecutor's attention was drawn to vast cash withdrawals, including "an amount of 1 billion Lebanese pounds ... once withdrawn in cash" (around $666,666 before the 2019 crisis), which were then deposited "by cheques and bank transfers to Riad Salameh's account at the Banque du Liban", the judge added, citing Riad Salameh's own statement during one of his hearings with Mr Tannous. These cash withdrawals "are either irregular or conceal money laundering", the judge wrote. Mr Kheireddine said in last year's hearing with the Lebanese judge that he was unaware the money in Raja Salameh's account belonged to the governor, according to the minutes of the questioning seen by The National. "The money was delivered to Raja Salameh in boxes" when withdrawn in Lebanese pounds — "it was delivered in a bag or an envelope if the amount was small", when withdrawn in dollars, he said. He did not ask the reason behind these withdrawals because "a lot of people used to do the same thing", he claimed.
Key banking information
Visiting European investigators have also questioned other witnesses, including former BDL vice governors and other managers. An informed source says they are on Wednesday to question Raed Charafeddine, BDL vice governor from 2009 to 2019. This week they examined Raja Salameh's Lebanese bank records, Reuters reported. Two sources familiar with the matter confirmed the information to The National. Raja Salameh has accounts at several Lebanese banks — not only Al Mawarid — into which the bulk of Forry's commissions were transferred. Due to banking secrecy laws and unco-operative authorities, European investigators were able to only partially track the money once it was transferred to Lebanon as they could not access the relevant data. Raja Salameh's account information might reveal the identity of alleged accomplices who benefited from these transfers in Lebanon and help track the money flow in its entirety.

Mikati: Cabinet session not sectarian, electricity issue not fully resolved
Associated Press/January 18/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati stressed Wednesday after a caretaker Cabinet session that he is not a sectarian person, after the meeting was boycotted by several Christian ministers affiliated with the Free Patriotic Movement. “What everyone should understand is that when Cabinet convenes, its aim is not to worsen the rift but rather to serve the citizen,” Mikati said. “We do not meet to secure something for a group without another and the atmosphere was very comfortable during the session,” the premier added. “As a Sunni Muslim, I become a patriotic man when I’m in the Grand Serail,” Mikati said. “The session was not aimed at bickering and the meeting witnessed full cooperation,” Mikati added, noting that he will not be dragged into “sectarian debates.”Noting that the issue of electricity was not fully resolved in the session, the premier said a $62 million loan was approved for the first fuel shipment needed for electricity and another $54 million was approved for maintenance works at the al-Zahrani and Deir Amar power plants. “We have asked the Energy Minister to begin negotiations with the company,” Mikati went on to say.And noting that a ministerial panel has been formed to follow up on the issue of electricity, the premier said it has been agreed to hold a third cabinet session next week or the one that follows to discuss “all the urgent matters that the citizen needs.”Kamal Hayek, chairman of Lebanon's state electricity company, told reporters that the crippled company has 800 billion Lebanese pounds in the central bank that have lost significant value during the economic crisis due to the country's ongoing currency devaluation, dropping from over $500 million before the crisis to roughly $16 million. He urged the central bank to let them convert the money to dollars so they can be spent on the company. The pound has lost over 90% of its value against the U.S. dollar since 2019.

French judicial delegation meets Bitar over port blast case
Naharnet/January 18/2023
A French judicial delegation probing the death of two French citizens in the Beirut port blast met Wednesday with lead investigator into the blast Judge Tarek Bitar, media reports said. The delegation also met with Attorney General Judge Sabbouh Suleiman, who is tasked by the public prosecution to oversee the file of the port.A European judicial delegation from France, Germany, and Luxembourg have arrived in Lebanon to probe the country's Central Bank governor and dozens of other individuals over suspected corruption.

Maronite bishops say Mikati can't convene cabinet without ministers approval
Naharnet/January 18/2023
The Council of Maronite Bishops on Wednesday waded into the debate over the meetings of the caretaker Cabinet, stressing that caretaker PM Najib Mikati “does not have the right to convene Cabinet without the approval of (all) ministers.”“He also does not have the right to issue and sign decrees without the signatures of all ministers, in line with Article 62 of the constitution,” the Council added, in a statement issued after its monthly meeting in Bkirki under Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi. “It is necessary to return to the constitutional interpretation in order to define the legal framework for ‘important matters’ and ‘emergency situations’ to prevent disputes that the country can do without,” the Council said. Mikati meanwhile stressed, after a caretaker Cabinet session on Wednesday, that he is not a sectarian person, after the meeting was boycotted by several Christian ministers affiliated with the Free Patriotic Movement. The FPM had also boycotted a December 5 session and has repeatedly warned against convening the caretaker Cabinet amid an ongoing presidential vacuum. Mikati, Hezbollah and the other government components have meanwhile argued that some cabinet sessions are necessary to address urgent matters such as health care and the electricity file.

Lebanese Army stops work of Israeli bulldozer over Blue Line breach
Naharnet/January 18/2023
The Lebanese Army on Wednesday stopped the work of an Israeli bulldozer by force after it tried to cross the U.N.-demarcated Blue Line, al-Manar TV reported. Lebanese and Israeli troops had earlier gone on alert on both sides of the border after the bulldozer breached the Blue Line.A patrol from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) meanwhile arrived on the scene and held intensive contacts with both parties.

Geagea on partitioning accusations: All Lebanese are our people
Naharnet/January 18/2023
After being accused of seeking partitioning, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said Wednesday that "all the Lebanese are our people.""We will discuss the current political structure with others," Geagea added, describing the current political structure as a "failure."Geagea had said Sunday that the entire Lebanese structure must be reevaluated, should Hezbollah manage to secure the election of a president in the way it wants. Hezbollah deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qassem responded Wednesday that "a patriotic person would not call for partitioning."Geagea, for his part, accused the Axis of Defiance of obstructing the election of a president and dubbed the caretaker cabinet as one-sided. "The patriotic feelings of some people have been hurt after what I said two days ago," Geagea said, adding that they haven't been moved when they saw the Lebanese "begging" for their money in the banks, searching through garbage to survive and queuing for medicine.

Caretaker cabinet convenes in second FPM-boycotted session
Naharnet/January 18/2023
The caretaker cabinet convened Wednesday for the second time at the Grand Serail to discuss the electricity file and other items. Minister of Tourism Walid Nassar attended the session despite a decision by the Free Patriotic Movement to boycott any caretaker cabinet session. Chairman of the Board of Directors and General Manager at Electricité du Liban Kamal Hayek also attended the session. Last month, a two-thirds quorum was secured for the caretaker cabinet's first session by caretaker Industry Minister George Boujikian of the FPM-allied Tashnag Party. Boujikian attended although he had participated in a statement declaring the boycott of that session. The statement carried the names of the caretaker ministers of foreign affairs, justice, defense, economy, social affairs, energy, tourism, industry and the displaced. Economy Minister Amin Salam arrived Wednesday at the Grand Serail, and said he will participate in today's session because he considered the electricity file to be an emergency. He did not attend the last session that caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati had described as an emergency meeting. It included a decree related to medical services offered to cancer and dialysis patients. The FPM has repeatedly warned against holding cabinet sessions amid the ongoing presidential vacuum, labeling such a move as an attack on the president’s powers. "People's demands can not depend on someone's moodiness or political bets," Mikati said at the beginning of the meeting. Eighteen ministers, including Mikati, attended the session.

European investigators quiz Marwan Kheireddine and ex-BDL vice governor
Agence France Presse/January 18/2023
European investigators have questioned two witnesses for eight hours in Beirut as part of a probe into Lebanon's central bank governor Riad Salemeh and his brother, a judicial official told AFP. Investigators from France, Germany and Luxembourg began hearing witnesses Monday as part of the case of suspected financial misconduct including possible money laundering and embezzlement. The long-serving central bank chief is among top officials widely blamed for monetary policies that have led to a Lebanese economic crisis that the World Bank has dubbed one of the worst globally in modern history.
Investigators heard evidence for more than eight hours from Ahmad Jachi, a central bank vice governor from 2003 to 2008, as well as Marwan Kheireddine, who heads Al Mawarid Bank, the official said on condition of anonymity because they cannot speak to the press. Kheireddine, who has close ties to Salameh, is also a former state minister who ran unsuccessfully for a seat in parliament last year. The investigators questioned former vice governor Saad Andary on Monday and are also set to hear evidence from Raed Charafeddine, another former vice governor, on Wednesday, although Salame is not among them. "To my knowledge, so far he has not received a summons," Salameh's French lawyer, Pierre-Olivier Sur, told AFP. The questioning of the vice governors had so far focused on the central council's past decisions, the source said. Bank owners and directors were asked about the bank accounts of the governor's brother, Raja Salameh, as well as "money transfers to the brothers' accounts abroad," the source added. The investigators also examined the central bank's ties to Forry Associates Ltd, a Virgin Islands-registered company that lists Raja Salameh as its beneficiary. Forry is suspected to have sold treasury bonds and Eurobonds issued by the Lebanese central bank at a commission, which was then allegedly transferred to Raja Salameh's bank accounts abroad. France, Germany and Luxembourg in March seized assets worth 120 million euros ($130 million) in a move linked to a probe by French investigators into 72-year-old Salameh's personal wealth. Lebanon also opened a probe into Salameh's wealth last year, after the office of Switzerland's top prosecutor requested assistance with an investigation into more than $300 million allegedly embezzled out of the central bank with the help of his brother. Salameh and his brother both deny any wrongdoing. The investigators also plan to question Lebanese bankers as well as current and former employees of the central bank as part of their probe.

Saved from death after sailing from Lebanon, Syrian refugees face deportation
Associated Press/January 18/2023
On New Year's Eve, a small boat carrying more than 230 would-be migrants, most of them Syrians, broke down and began to sink after setting sail from the northern coast of Lebanon.
Since the collapse of Lebanon's economy in 2019, an increasing number of people -- mostly Syrian and Palestinian refugees but also Lebanese citizens -- have tried to leave the country and reach Europe by sea. The attempts often turn deadly.
This time, rescue crews from Lebanon's navy and U.N. peacekeepers deployed along the border with Israel, were able to save all but two of the passengers, a Syrian woman and a child who drowned. For many of the survivors, however, the relief was fleeting.
After bringing them back to shore, to the port of Tripoli, where they recovered overnight, the Lebanese army loaded nearly 200 rescued Syrians into trucks and dropped them on the Syrian side of an unofficial border crossing in Wadi Khaled, a remote area of northeastern Lebanon, some of the survivors and human rights monitors said. It remained unclear who had ordered the deportation but the incident marked an apparent escalation in the Lebanese army's deportations of Syrians at a time of heightened anti-refugee rhetoric in the small, crisis-ridden nation. Officials with the army and General Security - the agency normally responsible for managing immigration issues - did not respond to repeated requests for comment. Once on the other side of the border, the boat survivors were intercepted by men wearing Syrian army uniforms who herded them into large plastic greenhouses. They were held captive there until family members paid to have them released and brought back to Lebanon by smugglers. "It was a matter of buying and selling, buying and selling people," said Yassin al-Yassin, 32, a Syrian refugee living in Lebanon since 2012. Al-Yassin said he paid $600 - to be split between the Syrian army and the smugglers - to have his brother brought back to Lebanon. Syrian officials did not respond to requests for comment on the allegations. One of the boat survivors, Mahmoud al-Dayoub, a 43-year-old refugee from the Syrian area of Homs, said he overheard their captors negotiating the price of each detainee.
"I don't know if it was the Syrian army or the smugglers," said Dayoub, who has also been registered as a refugee in Lebanon since 2012, "There were 30 people surrounding us with guns and we didn't know what was going on," he said. "All I cared about was not being taken to Syria, because if I'm taken to Syria, I might not come back."Dayoub said he managed to slip away and flee back across the border - his family never paid a ransom for him. Human rights monitors say the case of the boat survivors is a troubling new twist in Lebanon's ongoing push for Syrian refugees to go home.
Lebanon hosts some 815,000 registered Syrian refugees and potentially hundreds of thousands more who are unregistered, the highest population of refugees per capita in the world. But since the country's economic meltdown erupted three years ago, Lebanese officials have increasingly called for a mass return of the Syrians. Lebanon's General Security agency has tried to coax the refugees into going home voluntarily, with anemic results. In some cases, the agency has deported people back to Syria, citing a 2019 regulation allowing unauthorized refugees who entered Lebanon after April of that year to be deported.
Reports by human rights organizations have cited cases of returning refugees being forcibly detained and tortured, allegations Lebanese authorities deny. Until recently, deportations mostly involved small numbers of people and were carried out under formal procedures, giving the U.N. and human rights groups a chance to intervene and, in some cases, halt them. What happened to the boat survivors, "is a violation of human rights and of the Lebanese laws and international treaties," said Mohammed Sablouh, a Lebanese human rights lawyer.
Lisa Abou Khaled, a spokesperson for the U.N. refugee agency in Lebanon, said the UNHCR was "following up with the relevant authorities" on the case. "All individuals who are rescued at sea and who may have a fear of (returning) to their country of origin should have the opportunity to seek protection," she said. The Lebanese army regularly returns people caught crossing illegally from Syria. Jimmy Jabbour, a member of Parliament representing the northern Akkar district, which includes Wadi Khaled, said that when army patrols intercept would-be migrants who crossed into Lebanon through smuggler routes, they often round them up and dump them in the no man's land across the border - instead of initiating formal deportation proceedings. Afterward, the deportees simply pay smugglers to bring them in again, Jabbour said, adding that he had complained to the army about the practice. "It's not the army's job to create work opportunities for the smugglers," he said. "The job of the army is to hand them over to General Security . and General Security is supposed to hand them over to the Syrian authorities."In contrast to the newly entered migrants, the New Year's Eve boat survivors included refugees who had been living in Lebanon for more than a decade and were registered with the United Nations. One of them, a Syrian woman from Idlib who spoke on condition of anonymity fearing retaliation, said she spent two nights detained at the border before her relatives paid $300 for her to be released back into Lebanon. "I can't return (to Syria). I would rather die and throw myself in the sea," she said. Jasmin Lilian Diab, director of the Institute for Migration Studies at the Lebanese American University, said many refugees take to the sea to avoid deportation. Diab said her institute found a spike in migrant boats leaving Lebanon in late 2022. Some told her team of researchers that they left because of the increasingly aggressive anti-refugee rhetoric. They feared "deportations were going to happen and that they were going to be sent back to Syria," Diab said. "So they felt like it was their only chance to get out of here."

The probes into Lebanese central bank chief Salameh
Timour Azhari/Reuters/January 18/2023
European investigators are in Beirut quizzing witnesses as they probe suspected money laundering and embezzlement by Lebanese central bank governor Riad Salameh, who denies any wrongdoing and still enjoys support from powerful Lebanese factions.
Their arrival marks progress in one of several probes into Salameh, whose three decades leading the central bank are now under increased scrutiny since the collapse of Lebanon's financial system. Salameh, who has not been convicted of any crime, has said the probes are part of a campaign to scapegoat him for the 2019 collapse. His brother Raja, a suspect in the investigations, also denies any wrongdoing.
EUROPE INVESTIGATES
Investigations began with a Swiss probe into whether Salameh and Raja illegally took more than $300 million from the central bank between 2002 and 2015. Since then, European countries including France, Germany, Luxembourg and Liechtenstein have initiated their own investigations into whether tens of millions of dollars of the funds allegedly embezzled from the central bank were laundered in Europe. In March 2022, the European Union's criminal justice cooperation organization announced the freezing of some 120 million euros($130 million) of Lebanese assets in France, Germany, Luxembourg, Monaco and Belgium. The assets were frozen in a case in which Munich prosecutors said Salameh was a suspect. Lebanon has received several requests for cooperation from European judiciaries. In January 2023, a team of European investigators from Germany, France and Luxembourg arrived to interrogate witnesses and obtain additional evidence.
LEBANESE PROBE LIMPS ALONG
Lebanese authorities said they opened their own probe after receiving a Swiss judicial cooperation request. Critics doubted whether the Lebanese judiciary, where appointments largely depend on political backing, would seriously investigate a figure with the stature of Salameh, given his top-level political backing.
The judiciary do not deny the difficulties. In November, Lebanon's most senior judge said, in a general comment, that political meddling in judicial work had led to a chaotic situation that required a "revolution in approaches" to resolve. Jean Tannous, the judge appointed to lead the preliminary investigation, faced hurdles including, according to reports, an intervention by Prime Minister Najib Mikati to prevent him accessing data from banks. Mikati denied the reports. Top prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat stopped Tannous from attending a Paris meeting last year with European prosecutors investigating Salameh, Reuters reported. In June 2022, Oueidat ordered a prosecutor to formally charge Salameh with crimes including money laundering, illicit enrichment, forgery and tax evasion. But the prosecutor refused and sought to be recused from the case before being blocked by legal challenges from the governor. The investigation has not advanced since then. A separate probe by Mount Lebanon Public Prosecutor Ghada Aoun led to Salameh being charged in March 2022 with illicit enrichment in a case related to the purchase and rental of Paris apartments, including some by the central bank. Salameh has denied the allegations and has said the prosecution is politically motivated. The case has been referred to an investigative judge but Salameh has not attended any hearings.
SALAMEH CONTINUES
Salameh has continued to exercise extensive powers during the investigations, enjoying support from powerful figures including Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Mikati. He has been a cornerstone of a financial system that served the vested interests of Lebanon's main factions after the 1975-90 civil war, and many observers say these groups fear his downfall would have repercussions for them. His latest six-year term ends in July. But while former President Michel Aoun called for Salameh to be replaced, Lebanon's most powerful groups have yet to suggest any alternatives. A political crisis that has left Lebanon without a president and a fully empowered cabinet could complicate any attempt to replace him. So while Salameh has said he expects to leave in July, some analysts say his term could be extended again.

The strain between Hezbollah and the Aounists is doing nothing to help Lebanon
Michael Young/The National/January 18/2023
The stand off is prolonging the leadership vacuum and the presidential contest
Little has changed in Lebanon since the departure of Michel Aoun from the presidency at the end of October. There is still no agreement among the country’s political forces over a successor. This situation has been particularly damaging for the relationship between Mr Aoun’s party, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and Hezbollah. By most accounts, Hezbollah would like to see another Maronite Christian ally, Suleiman Frangieh, elected, but for that to happen he needs the support of a major Christian parliamentary bloc (parliament elects presidents in Lebanon) to secure communal legitimacy. But the FPM, which is led by Mr Aoun’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil, refuses to endorse him, because Mr Bassil has presidential ambitions of his own. Mr Bassil has long sought to succeed Mr Aoun, and for years was the power behind the presidency, even setting up an office at the presidential palace. However, as the likelihood of his election has waned, he may be thinking of an alternative plan: bringing someone weak to power, upon whom he can impose conditions in exchange for his backing, allowing Mr Bassil to retain influence over the presidency. Mr Bassil is also likely worried that without his father-in-law to protect him, he will be swept away by the established post-1990 political class that controls much of the country, and which always regarded him and Mr Aoun as interlopers. Mr Frangieh is one of the main representatives of this group, along with parliament speaker Nabih Berri, the Druze leader Walid Joumblatt, and to a lesser extent the former prime minister Saad Hariri, who resides outside Lebanon, as well as their appointees in the political system.
It is in this context that the alliance with Hezbollah has been so important. Formalised in what is known as the Mar Mikhail Agreement of 2006, the alliance for a long time served both sides well. It won Mr Aoun Hezbollah’s support for his presidency in 2016; and it allowed Hezbollah to break its isolation after the Syrian withdrawal in 2005, which was followed by the electoral victory of the March 14 forces opposed to Syria. But for Mr Aoun, like Mr Bassil, the ties with Hezbollah have always been primarily about the presidency. Mr Aoun judged, correctly as it turned out, that he would only be elected if he had the party behind him, and Mr Bassil hoped for the same. Yet when Hezbollah failed to back his candidacy this year, the relationship turned sour.
Today, Hezbollah has yet to formally endorse Mr Frangieh, as it does not want its ties with the FMP to deteriorate. But at some point the party will have to take a decision. Mr Frangieh’s position is increasingly precarious because Hezbollah has not declared its intentions officially, while none of the two major Christian blocs, the Aounists or the rival Lebanese Forces, will support Mr Frangieh.
Mr Bassil and Hezbollah have said many times that they want to preserve their relationship. But this won’t mean much if Mr Bassil continues to block Mr Frangieh and Hezbollah sees Mr Bassil as too dependent on the party for it to accept his conditions. In fact, the six years of Mr Aoun’s mandate were a disaster for Hezbollah, explaining why they don’t want to replicate this with Mr Bassil. The party was regarded as the defender of a discredited president amid an economic collapse. Moreover, Mr Bassil would routinely attack Hezbollah’s allies, especially Mr Berri. Mr Bassil became a headache, clashing regularly with Mr Hariri and the current Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, to pave his way to the presidency, so that government was invariably blocked. This had negative repercussions for Hezbollah, but today the party sees things differently. It no longer needs a Christian ally as vitally as it did in 2006, because it has developed relations with the Sunni and Druze communities. If Mr Bassil wants to go his own way, Hezbollah will not pay a heavy price for this, even if it prefers to avoid it.
Mr Bassil is well aware that he is at a disadvantage. His latitude to break with Hezbollah is limited if he wants to preserve political influence. He has alienated everyone, and within his own community, even within the FPM, he has steadily lost ground, so that a break with the party could lead to his political irrelevance. But nor can Mr Bassil bring in a presidential candidate who is under his thumb, as he desires. His political enemies will never accept that he control the presidency by stealth, and will not vote for his candidate. Mr Bassil needs to completely change his strategy and start making new allies, otherwise he will only dig his hole deeper. He may yet shift tack, but it’s too late to make a difference on the presidency this year.

Mikati convenes Cabinet session and urges unity to elect new president
Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 18, 2023
BEIRUT: The Lebanese caretaker government held its second session amid the presidential vacuum on Wednesday. The ministers of the Free Patriotic Movement boycotted the session, arguing that a caretaker government has no right to hold sessions to manage the country’s affairs. The session was attended by 17 ministers, including seven of 12 Christian ministers. Hezbollah’s ministers also attended after being given permission by their leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
In total, six were absent — the ministers of defense, foreign affairs, energy, emigrants, social affairs and justice. The caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, persuaded Economy Minister Amin Salam and Tourism Minister Walid Nassar to attend. Both are affiliated with the FPM but are not official members. He also persuaded Kamal Hayek, chairman of the board of directors of Electricité du Liban, to attend despite FPM’s influence over the Energy Ministry. Mikati, who has been fiercely criticized by the FPM for holding Cabinet sessions, said their only purpose was to serve citizens during a national crisis. The Cabinet approved two treasury advances. The first for $62 million will pay for fuel from ships already waiting at sea. The treasury has had to pay fines on the shipments already. The second, for $54 million, is intended to pay for the maintenance of Lebanon’s power stations. Mikati said afterwards that the government needed to take steps to protect food security by getting cash for essentials such as wheat. Such needs cannot be postponed for sectarian and political ends, he said. “Any government action in the future will be consistent with the logic of the constitution and safeguarding partnership. It does not seek to challenge or provoke any party,” he said. He said all in parliament must come together to solve the nation’s problems, not least choosing a new president. “The essence of partnership and respect for the constitution would be for everyone to assume national responsibility; hence our call to quickly move forward toward consensus in order to elect a president capable of bringing together the Lebanese before it is too late.”Political squabbling however continued as parliament prepared on Thursday for an 11th attempt to elect a new president. The head of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea, accused Hezbollah and its allies of obstructing the process.
He also said parliament speaker Nabih Berri was helping the bloc disrupt the voting sessions in an attempt to wear down MPs and force through their preferred candidate. “We will not accept this, and we will consult all parties to agree on a sovereign president,” Geagea said. The Council of Maronite Bishops urged MPs to assume their responsibilities to prevent the country’s collapse. Under the Lebanese constitution, a Maronite usually assumes the presidency, while others are given key roles including the leadership of the army, the governorship of the Banque du Liban and senior judicial positions. The council said it was concerned there was an attempt to create a vacuum in the Maronite positions in particular, and the Christian positions in general, to change the nation’s identity. Public school teachers meanwhile held sit-ins in protest at going unpaid, saying the situation was so perilous that many of them could not cover the cost of traveling to work. Donor countries have so far refused Ministry of Education appeals for help.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 18-19/2023
Ukraine helicopter crash kills 16, including interior minister
Agence France Presse/January 18, 2023
Ukraine's interior minister was among 16 people, including two children, who were killed when a helicopter crashed near a kindergarten outside the capital Kyiv, officials said Wednesday. In a video that circulated online from the aftermath of the incident, cries could be heard at the scene which was consumed by a fire. There were no immediate details on the cause of the crash. "In total, 16 people are currently known to have died," the head of national police, Igor Klymenko, said. Among the dead are several top officials of the interior ministry including Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky and his first deputy minister, Yevgeniy Yenin, he said. Monastyrsky, a 42-year-old father of two, was appointed interior minister in 2021. Twenty two people were hospitalised including 10 children. Officials said that at the time of the crash children and employees were in the kindergarten. Medics and police were working at the scene. The scene of the crash in the town of Brovary is located some 20 kilometres (12 miles) northeast of Kyiv. Russian and Ukrainian forces fought for control of Brovary in the early stages of Moscow's invasion until Russia's troops withdrew in early April.
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops to pro-Western Ukraine on February 24 last year. The crash came on the heels of a tragedy that saw 45 people including six children die when a Russian missile struck a residential building in the eastern city of Dnipro at the weekend.

Ukraine Interior minister, deputy among 18 killed in helicopter crash in Kyiv
Reuters/January 18, 2023
KYIV: Eighteen people including Ukraine’s interior minister, other senior ministry officials and three children were killed on Wednesday morning when a helicopter crashed near a nursery outside Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said. The regional governor said 29 people were also hurt, including 15 children, when the helicopter came down in a residential area in Brovary, on the capital’s northeastern outskirts. Several dead bodies draped in foil blankets lay in a courtyard near the damaged nursery. Emergency workers were at the scene. Debris was scattered over a playground. National police chief Ihor Klymenko said Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi had been killed alongside his first deputy, Yevheniy Yenin, and other officials in a helicopter belonging to the state emergency service.
“There were children and...staff in the nursery at the time of this tragedy,” Kyiv region governor Oleksiy Kuleba wrote on Telegram. Officials did not give an immediate explanation of the cause of the helicopter crash. There was no immediate comment from Russia, whose troops invaded Ukraine last February, and Ukrainian officials made no reference to any Russian attack in the area at the time. Monastyrskyi, responsible for the police and security inside Ukraine, would be the most senior Ukrainian official to die since the war began. Separately, Ukraine reported intense fighting overnight in the east of the country, where both sides have taken huge losses for little gain in intense trench warfare over the last two months. Ukrainian forces repelled attacks in the eastern city of Bakhmut and the village of Klishchiivka just south of it, the Ukrainian military said. Russia has focused on Bakhmut in recent weeks, claiming last week to have taken the mining town of Soledar on its northern outskirts. After major Ukrainian gains in the second half of 2022, the frontlines have hardened over the last two months. Kyiv says it hopes new Western weapons would allow it to resume an offensive to recapture land, especially heavy tanks which would give its troops mobility and protection to push through Russian lines. Western allies will be gathering on Friday at a US air base in Germany to pledge more weapons for Ukraine. Attention is focused in particular on Germany, which has veto power over any decision to send its Leopard tanks, which are fielded by armies across Europe and widely seen as the most suitable for Ukraine. Berlin says a decision on the tanks will be the first item on the agenda of Boris Pistorius, its new defense minister.Britain, which broke the Western taboo on sending main battle tanks over the weekend by promising a squadron of its Challengers, has called on Germany to approve the Leopards. Poland and Finland have already said they would be ready to send Leopards if Berlin allows it.

Parliament urges EU to list Iran guards as ‘terrorist’
AFP/January 18, 2023
STRASBOURG, France: The European Parliament voted on Wednesday to urge Brussels to list Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terror group, amid mounting pressure on Western powers to do so. MEPs backed an amendment added to an annual foreign policy report calling for “the EU and its member states to include the IRGC on the EU’s terrorist list in the light of its terrorist activity, the repression of protesters and its supplying of drones to Russia.” The vote does not oblige the European Union to act, but it comes with foreign ministers already due to discuss tightening sanctions on Tehran at a meeting in Brussels next week. Iran has launched a brutal crackdown on anti-government protests since the September 16 death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. Several detainees have been condemned to death. Tehran has also been criticized for supplying its ally Russia with kamikaze drones, which Moscow has in turn used to bombard Ukrainian cities, often hitting civilian homes and infrastructure. Some EU capitals have begun to move toward adding the IRGC to the terrorist blacklist, which would expose another important plank in the Islamic republic’s government to sanctions. In the past, some have resisted this call, fearing it would be based on shaky legal grounds and further poison already dreadful ties with the West. Europe’s position is hardening, however, and the opening of this week’s parliamentary session in Strasbourg was marked by a rally of Iranian expatriates demanding the terror listing. “I guarantee that all options allowing the EU to react to events in Iran remain on the table,” EU justice commissioner Didier Reynders told the parliament earlier this week. The MEPs are expected to repeat their plea on Thursday in another vote to accept a non-legislative report on Europe’s response to protests and executions in Iran.

Will a special Ukraine tribunal really happen?
Agence France Presse/January 18, 2023
Could Russian President Vladimir Putin one day stand in the dock in The Hague? The prospect seemed to move closer after Germany backed a special court for the invasion of Ukraine. German Foreign Minister Anna Baerbock called on Monday for a tribunal to get around the fact that the International Criminal Court (ICC) cannot prosecute Russia for the "leadership" crime of aggression. But there are major hurdles before any such court could even be created, let alone put Russian leaders on trial.
- Why a special tribunal? -
Germany's Baerbock said a special tribunal would fill a "severe gap" in international law. The Hague-based ICC launched an investigation in February into war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine.
It was able to do so because Kyiv accepted its jurisdiction, even though neither Russia nor Ukraine are members of the court, which was set up in 2002. But while changes to the ICC's governing Rome Statute gave it powers to prosecute aggression from 2018, it still cannot do so for non-member states. The only way it can is by a referral by the UN Security Council -- but Russia, with its permanent seat, would automatically veto that.
- What's the German plan? -
Baerbock proposed a "new format" of court based in The Hague, to be set up in the near future if possible. The court could "derive its jurisdiction from Ukrainian criminal law" but have international prosecutors and judges and foreign funding, she said. That would be different to tribunals under international law, such as those for the 1990s wars in the former Yugoslavia. And while tribunals for Cambodia and Kosovo have used local laws, they were not able to try aggression between one state and another. At the same time, Baerbock proposed changing the ICC's rules in the long term so that it can prosecute non-member states for aggression.
- Who would it target? -
A special tribunal would target Russia's civilian and military leadership for ordering and overseeing the invasion of Ukraine, Baerbock said.
While the ICC could charge Russian soldiers and commanders on the ground, Baerbock said it was "important that the Russian leadership cannot claim immunity."Aggression was the "original crime that enabled all the other terrible crimes".
- What does the ICC think? -
ICC prosecutor Karim Khan, who held talks with Baerbock on Monday, has opposed a special tribunal for Ukraine. He said in December he should not be "set up to fail" by the creation of a special tribunal and urged the international community to focus on supporting his own investigation. Baerbock said it was crucial to keep supporting the ICC and insisted that a tribunal would not undermine it.
- What are the hurdles? -
To exist in the first place the court needs international support -- and that could be hard. Much of the West seems to be on board, with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen calling for a special court in December and the Netherlands offering to host it.
But the rest of the world would likely be less keen.
"I hear those critics voicing concerns that such a path would show we care about a war because it happens in Europe, and I share that concern, so it's important that we talk to partners from other regions," Baerbock acknowledged. But the biggest problem could be bringing any suspects to justice. Russia has said any Ukraine tribunal would lack legitimacy, and would refuse to extradite suspects. Ukraine could extradite captured Russians but that would leave high-level figures unscathed. "Unless there is a regime change in Russia, Putin and other very high-level leaders would have to leave Russia in order be subject to arrest," said Cecily Rose, assistant professor of public international law at Leiden University.

Massive Strikes Sweep Iran’s Oil Industry
London, Tehran – Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 January, 2023
Workers in Iran’s oil industry have expanded their strikes on Tuesday to include employees from major companies in the country’s south. This comes at a time when living conditions continue to deteriorate and authorities struggle to restore calm in Iran following four months of anti-regime social unrest. Video footage shared on social media showed the spread of strikes among oil company workers. Workers of companies in the cities of Ahwaz, Aghajari, Bushehr, and Asaluyeh, joined the strikes organized by unions to protest the living situation. The cities of Abadan and Bandar-e Mahshahr, which include the two largest petrochemical and oil refining facilities in the country, witnessed a return to strikes at the beginning of this week. Workers are demanding better wages, lower taxes, and better services, including pensions after retirement. Permanent workers in Iran’s oil industry said they will join a strike announced by contract oil workers and will stop work to protest the government’s crackdown on a wave of nationwide demonstrations following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman arrested for not wearing her hijab “properly.”Iranian authorities are pushing onward with their security crackdown on the capital and major cities, with the aim of eliminating hotbeds of protests that shook the country in the past months. Hundreds of people were killed during the crackdown. At least 524 people, including 71 minors, have been killed in the violent crackdown by security forces on protesters while over 19,000 are said to be arrested, according to the latest tally by US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). HRANA also reported the death of 68 security and military personnel during the crackdown on protests. Hengaw, a Norway-based group that monitors rights violations in Iran's Kurdish regions, accused the Iranian security services of kidnapping 96 Kurdish citizens during the first two weeks of January.The organization said that “five students, four teachers, and five women were among those kidnapped.”

Magnitude 5.6 Earthquake Strikes Northwestern Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 January, 2023
A 5.6 magnitude earthquake hit northwestern Iran on Wednesday, according to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC). The quake's epicenter was close to the town of Khoy in the Iranian province of West Azerbaijan. Iranian media have not reported any casualties yet. Major geological faultlines crisscross Iran, which has suffered several devastating earthquakes in recent years.

Egyptian-Jordanian-Palestinian Summit Rejects ‘Israeli Unilateralism’
Cairo – Fathia al-Dakhakhni/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 January, 2023
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi hosted on Tuesday Jordanian King Abdullah II and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at a tripartite summit in Cairo to discuss the Palestinian issue. The summit was held in wake of recent developments in the occupied Palestinian territories and the regional and international situations related to it, according to a statement released by the Egyptian presidency. The leaders emphasized the need to preserve the legitimate Palestinian rights and the continuation of their joint efforts to achieve comprehensive, just and permanent peace based on the two-state solution. They called for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state according to the 1967 borders and East Jerusalem as its capital in line with international law, relevant international resolutions and the Arab Peace initiative. Sisi and King Abdullah stressed their full support for the efforts of Abbas amid mounting regional and international challenges. The leaders stressed the need for the international community to provide protection for the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights, as well as consolidating efforts to find a real political approach that would re-launch serious and effective negotiations to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict according to the two-state solution. They warned of the danger of the continued lack of a political approach and ensuing repercussions on security and stability. They underlined the need to halt illegal unilateral Israeli measures that undermine the two-state solution, such as settlement expansion, confiscation of Palestinian lands, demolition of homes, the continuous raids in Palestinian cities and the violation of the historical and legal status in Jerusalem and its sanctities. They stressed the need to preserve the historical and legal status in Jerusalem and its Islamic and Christian sanctities.

Jordan: Army Foils Drug Smuggling Attempt from Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 January, 2023
Jordan on Tuesday thwarted an attempt to infiltrate and smuggle large quantities of narcotics from Syrian territory. An official military source at Jordan Armed Forces-Arab Army (JAF) said that Border Guard patrols, in coordination with security agencies, spotted a group of smugglers trying to illegally cross into Jordan from the Syrian border. The source said quick response patrols rushed to the site, opening fire at the smugglers. One of them was injured forcing the others to retreat. After an intensive search of the area, 11 million Captagon pills and 4,049 palm-sized sheets of hashish were seized, in addition to a large amount of ammunition, all of which were handed over to the relevant authorities. The source stressed that the JAF will continue to deal with any threat to Jordan's borders "firmly", and will foil any attempts intended to undermine and destabilize the Kingdom's security and terrorize its citizens. Smuggling on the Jordanian-Syrian border is more active during the winter months as smugglers take advantage of the fog and rainy weather to cover their illegal activities despite the presence of fixed and mobile patrols along the 270-km border with Syria.

Türkiye, Iran Support Syria's Territorial Integrity, Unity
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 January, 2023
Türkiye and Iran have reiterated their support for a political solution in Syria and preserving its unity and territorial integrity. They also stressed the need to solve the many problems of the Syrian crisis within the framework of the Astana track. “Türkiye and Iran support Syria’s territorial integrity and political unity,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said at a joint news conference with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in Ankara on Tuesday. “Within the framework of the Astana process, of which Türkiye, Russia and Iran are the guarantor countries, we believe work must be done to solve many problems,” added the top Turkish diplomat. Cavusoglu stressed that cooperation and coordination with Iran “is ongoing within the framework of the Astana process, and that Ankara has a common desire to activate the political track, the work of the Constitutional Committee, and other steps in Syria to establish stability.”The minister added that the process of normalization between the intelligence institutions in Türkiye and Syria “has begun.”He stressed that Türkiye “will not allow the establishment of a terrorist state on its southern borders.”Cavusoglu added that he also discussed with Abdollahian the fight against terrorism. The Turkish minister said that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is present in both Syria and Iran, noting that his country has taken “necessary measures” at home and outside the country to fight the group. He pointed out that the US and Russia “did not fulfill their commitments under a 2019 agreement to remove the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) away from the Turkish borders.”Türkiye often targets Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria, claiming that they are affiliated to the PKK. Türkiye has conducted three offensives against the YPG since 2016, and it is threatening to carry out a fresh military campaign against them soon.

At Davos, Saudi Arabia says curbing oil dependency a priority
Associated Press/Wednesday, 18 January, 2023
Saudi Arabia is working to reduce its reliance on oil exports, Economy Minister Faisal Al-Ibrahim said Wednesday, as the Middle East powerhouse sent one of the largest delegations to the Davos summit to make its case. Despite its goal of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2060, the country remains hugely dependent on crude oil exports that have powered its growth for decades, raising doubts about its potential for an economic makeover any time soon. "We want to lessen our dependence on oil... We want to diversify our economy, it is important, it is essential," Al-Ibrahim told AFP at the World Economic Forum. Riyadh has dispatched eight top-ranking officials to the gathering of business elite as it seeks more foreign investment and partners outside the all-important oil sector. Soaring crude prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine allowed the kingdom to post in 2022 its first budget surplus in nine years, giving it the financial firepower for economic development. "It's never too late for sectors that are starting from scratch in Saudi Arabia. Tourism, culture, sports and entertainment -- they are going to bring a wealth of diversification," Al-Ibrahim said. "But we also care about other sectors like mining and industry for it to be even more competitive."Saudi Arabia is hoping to build on momentum from the high-profile visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Riyadh last month, where deals worth billions of dollars were signed in areas including energy and infrastructure. "It's not advertising or showcasing, people are very interested in Saudi's growth story," the minister said, noting the kingdom's 8.5 percent expansion in GDP last year even as much of global economy struggled. On the heels of the football World Cup in Qatar, Saudi Arabia could be a candidate to host the competition in 2030, recently hiring the Portuguese star Cristiano Ronaldo to promote the potential bid. And at Davos on Tuesday, Saudi officials announced a joint initiative with the Davos forum organizers to accelerate high-tech innovation in the country via the virtual reality of the metaverse.Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been pushing to open up the country and enact economic and social reforms, although critics have denounced a crackdown on dissidents and the murder of critic Jamal Khashoggi inside the kingdom's Istanbul consulate in October 2018. "We've opened up much more than before and that lets people see," Al-Ibrahim said. "They see the culture, they see the values, they see the progress and they see that we are tackling a lot of challenges and issues regionally and globally."

Jordan protests to Israel after envoy blocked from holy site
Associated Press/Wednesday, 18 January, 2023
Jordan has summoned the Israeli ambassador to Amman to protest a move by Israeli police to block the Jordanian envoy from entering a volatile holy site in Jerusalem. The incident quickly escalated tensions between the neighbors and reflected the heightened sensitivity around the sacred compound under Israel's new ultranationalist government. Jordan's Foreign Ministry said its ambassador to Israel, Ghassan Majali, was blocked from entering the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem's Old City, the third-holiest site in Islam. The site, sitting on a sprawling plateau also home to the iconic golden Dome of the Rock, is revered by Muslims as the Noble Sanctuary and by Jews as the Temple Mount. The compound is administered by Jordanian religious authorities as part of an unofficial agreement after Israel won control of east Jerusalem in the 1967 Mideast war. Israel is in charge of security at the site. The Israeli police said that Majali arrived at the holy site "without any prior coordination with police officials," prompting an officer at the compound entrance who didn't recognize the diplomat to notify his commander about the unexpected visit. While awaiting instructions, officers held up Majali, along with Azzam al-Khatib, the director of the Jerusalem Waqf. The ambassador refused to wait and decided to leave, Israeli police said. Some two hours later, Jordanian state-run media reported that Majali finally entered the compound without showing any kind of permission and held talks with al-Khatib, who "briefed him about the Israeli violations in Al-Aqsa." Footage widely shared online shows Majali, among other Muslim worshippers, at the limestone Lion's Gate entrance to the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in the Old City. An Israeli police officer blocks his path and yells at Majali in Arabic to go back, according to the video. Al-Khatib gets on the phone as the visitors argue with the officers amid the crackle of the policeman's walkie-talkie.
"Had the ambassador briefly waited a few more minutes for the officer to be updated, the group would have entered," the police said, stressing that "coordination" with Israeli police was routine ahead of such visits. But Jordan described the move as an unusual provocation. The Jordanian Foreign Ministry said the Israeli ambassador had received a "strongly worded letter of protest to be conveyed immediately to his government." It said Jordanian officials do not need permission to enter the site because of the country's role as the official custodian and cautioned Israel against taking "any actions that would prejudice the sanctity of the holy places."There was no immediate comment from the Israeli Foreign Ministry. Tuesday marked the second time that Jordan has summoned the Israeli ambassador to Amman since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's new right-wing and religiously conservative government took power. Earlier this month, Israel's minister of national security, the ultranationalist Itamar Ben-Gvir, visited the Jerusalem holy site despite threats from the Hamas militant group and a cascade of condemnations from across the Arab world.
Jordan, along with the Palestinians and many Muslims, views Israeli visits to the compound as an attempt to alter the status of the site and give Jewish worshipers more rights there. Ben-Gvir and other far-right ministers who vow a hard-line stance against the Palestinians have threatened to test Israel's ties with Arab states — including Jordan and Egypt that have maintained decades-long peace treaties with Israel. On Tuesday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi hosted Jordanian and Palestinian leaders for talks on the state of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In a joint statement, el-Sissi, King Abdullah II of Jordan and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called for Israel to halt "all illegitimate, unilateral measures" that undermine the creation of an independent Palestinian state and to maintain the status quo at the Noble Sanctuary. The smallest change at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound — one of the region's most contested sites — could become a major new flashpoint between Israel and the Muslim world. Past Israeli actions there have triggered violent protests and wider conflicts.

At Davos, UN chief warns the world is in a 'sorry state'
Associated Press/Wednesday, 18 January, 2023
The world is in a "sorry state" because of myriad "interlinked" challenges including climate change and Russia's war in Ukraine that are "piling up like cars in a chain reaction crash," the U.N. chief said at the World Economic Forum's meeting Wednesday.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres delivered his gloomy message on the second day of the elite gathering of world leaders and corporate executives in the Swiss ski resort of Davos. Sessions took a grim turn when news broke of a helicopter crash in Ukraine that killed 16 people, including Ukraine's interior minister and other officials. Forum President Borge Brende requested 15 seconds of silence and Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska dabbed teary eyes, calling it "another very sad day," then telling attendees that "we can also change this negative situation for the better."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was scheduled to address the conclave by video link as the Ukrainian delegation that includes his wife pushes for more aid, including weapons, from international allies to fight Russia. Speaking shortly before Zelensky is German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is facing pressure to send tanks to help Ukraine and is the only leader to attend Davos from the Group of 7 biggest economies.Guterres said the "gravest levels of geopolitical division and mistrust in generations" are undermining efforts to tackle global problems, which also include widening inequality, a cost-of-living crisis sparked by soaring inflation and an energy crunch, lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply-chain disruptions and more.
He singled out climate change as an "existential challenge," and said a global commitment to limit the Earth's temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius "is nearly going up in smoke."Guterres, who has been one of the most outspoken world figures on climate change, referenced a recent study that found scientists at Exxon Mobil made remarkably accurate predictions about the effects of climate change as far back as the 1970s, even as the company publicly doubted that warming was real. "We learned last week that certain fossil fuel producers were fully aware in the 1970s that their core product was baking our planet," he said in his speech. "Some in Big Oil peddled the big lie." Critics have questioned the impact of the four-day meeting where politicians, CEOs and other leaders discuss the world's problems — and make deals on the sidelines — but where concrete action is harder to measure. Environmentalists, for example, slam the carbon-spewing private jets that ferry in bigwigs to an event that prioritizes the battle against climate change. On the second day, government officials, corporate titans, academics and activists were attending dozens of panel sessions on topics covering the metaverse, environmental greenwashing and artificial intelligence.Ukraine has taken center stage as the anniversary of the war nears, with Zelenska pressing attendees to do more to help her country at a time when Russia's invasion is leaving children dying and the world struggling with food insecurity. The crash added more tragedy after a Russian missile strike hit an apartment building over the weekend in the southeastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro, killing dozens of people in one of the deadliest single attacks in months. But Ukraine is gaining additional international support: Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said Tuesday that the Netherlands plans to "join" the U.S. and Germany's efforts to train and arm Ukraine with advanced Patriot defense systems. The German government has faced mounting pressure to make another significant step forward in military aid to Ukraine by agreeing to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is scheduled to visit Berlin this week and then host a meeting of allies at Ramstein Air Base in western Germany. Guterres was not optimistic that the conflict, being waged less than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from Davos, could end soon. "There will be an end of this war. There is the end of everything. But I do not see the end of the war in the immediate future," he said. Deep historical differences between Russia and Ukraine make it more difficult to find a solution based on international law and that respects territorial integrity, he added."For the moment, I don't think that we have a chance to promote or to mediate a serious negotiation to achieve peace in the short term," Guterres said.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 18-19/2023
A 'sea of blood': Iran reveals its new military doctrine - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/January 18/2023
Iran discusses its recent military drills, lessons learned from them and their message for the region.
In a recent lengthy interview, the deputy commander of the Iranian Army for Training Affairs Brig.-Gen. Alireza Sheikh discussed how Iran’s regime views its military doctrine.
The interview was published at Fars News, which is a pro-regime media outlet considered close to the IRGC. This is important because Iran is constantly focusing on training and conducting drills. In the last two weeks, for instance, the Islamic Republic has conducted two types of drills, one focusing on the IRGC navy, and another larger army exercise.
The recent interview reveals how Iran is following Russia’s military doctrine and also learning from Pakistan and how it is focusing on missiles and drones. Tehran is also warning its adversaries that it is practicing conducting raids that could destabilize the Gulf if Iran were confronted with a larger conflict.
How Iran understands its military role
It's important to understand that Iran’s military has several aspects. While it has traditional armed forces, such as a navy, air force and ground forces, it also has the IRGC forces. The IRGC acts as a paramilitary force, as elite forces guarding the regime, the force at the forefront of some of the missile and drone technology, and the force that conducts operations abroad in places like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Therefore, the main reason it’s worth understanding the doctrine is to see how Iran understands its own military role.
The long interview is not exceptional – Iran’s pro-regime media is prone to having such interviews that appear to reveal a lot about its thinking and also include some introspection.
This makes Iran, as a regime, more interesting than many other authoritarian ones. It would be unlikely to have a similar long interview with a Russian military commander, a Chinese commander or a Turkish officer, where there was any introspection, beyond simplistic nationalist propaganda. Iran’s regime is a bit different.
Let’s take a look at what the commander said. First of all, the interviewer begins by noting the large extent of recent military drills, which were supposedly conducted over millions of square kilometers. This is a reference to the fact it included a large area of the coastline and also areas of the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean.
It is a bit of an exaggeration for Iran to pretend it can really project its power over all this area at the same time, but nevertheless, it is trying to use drones and long-range missiles to cover immense areas of the Indian Ocean and also coastal areas. Tehran has shown it can strike at ships in the Gulf of Oman using drones, for instance.
The commander says the recent training was important to show that Iran’s education and training of recruits is paying off, adding that it helps hone tactics and strategy. Sheikh then moves on to discuss the future of warfare in the region. He says wars are not “single force” but rather include combined arms and joint forces, and will involve all the “resources of the nation.”
He discusses the importance of air defense and combining various units into combined operations. This means that Iran wants to be able to use its relatively small navy alongside its ground forces, air force and apparently the IRGC as well.
This kind of combined arms approach is not unique to Iran. Israel’s recent Momentum five-year plan has also focused on streamlining how units work together. The US Marine Corps does the same thing. In fact, the whole notion of modern warfare is about how to make different units work better together.
How will Iran defend itself from a maritime attack?
Next, the commander discusses Iran’s approach to defending its territory from any kind of attack that would be carried out from the sea. Clearly, the Islamic Republic doesn’t believe it would be invaded from Iraq since Iran has worked for the last decade and a half to hollow out and control its much smaller Western neighbor.
Iran doesn’t think there will be a war in its north, along the Azerbaijan-Armenia border, but appears to fear tensions with the Gulf the most. This means it must be afraid that the US or other countries could threaten it from the sea. The commander says the current doctrine of defense is to practice for an “offensive” into a country in the region. He says that any country hoping to reach Iran will have to cross a “sea of blood.
“The defense policy is that no enemy should reach our soil,” he said, calling this “decisive defense.”
He then describes how Iran practices for an amphibious assault, apparently across the Persian Gulf or Gulf of Oman, using the navy, ground forces and airborne troops. He says Iran would first “infiltrate” into another country before conducting this raid to achieve a “bridgehead.”
This is wishful thinking, however. Iran’s small navy can’t conduct major operations like this. The US Navy in the Gulf and other partner forces would easily defeat an Iranian operation of any size. It’s unclear why Iran thinks this kind of amphibious operation would work and be anything more than a bizarre replay of something like the failed Dieppe raid conducted by the Allies in 1942 to test the feasibility of such an operation. Whereas the Allies failed and learned, the Iranians have yet to fail, but they would in such a scenario.
Has Iran become a regional drone and missile power?
Sheikh moves on from discussing the doctrine of an offensive defense to discussing how Iran has become a regional drone and missile power. In this assessment, he is discussing things that Iran has actually succeeded at. Tehran has exported drones to Russia, although he doesn’t mention this. He discusses how Iran used drones in recent drills and also how it used them to target a mock-up of a ship. He mentions the Karar drone as one of those used.
The interviewer at Fars News also asks the commander about their recent Zolfikar drill in which they created a mock-up of an Israeli Sa’ar 6 ship. The interviewer asks specifically about the “replica of the Zionist ship.” The commander doesn’t discuss Israel but notes that two drones were used in the drill to attack the ship and a mock-up building and that this shows the precision of Iran’s drones.
Next, the Iranian discusses the air defense operations of the regime.
He notes that the country has successfully created a complex multi-layered air defense system, including defenses like the 3rd Khordad system. Iran used that system to down a US Global Hawk drone in 2019. While the Iranian commander acknowledges some “problems” during the recent drills and the critique of the drills for being very costly (when Iran is facing sanctions), he nevertheless justifies them and says the air defenses performed well. Clearly, Iran is trying to integrate its radar and detection systems alongside the air defenses. It knows that in 2020, it mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian civilian airliner over Tehran.
This was because Iran’s air defenses were on alert for US airstrikes and mistook the civilian plane for such a strike or one using a cruise missile. Iranian air defenders also made a mistake by not alerting civilian planes and redirecting them. This led to mass murder by the Iranian regime by downing the airliner. Clearly, the regime wants to learn from this mistake but won’t admit it.
Iranian general says Islamic Republic attempting to create better air defenses
The brigadier-general then makes several interesting claims regarding the country's ground forces. He notes that in contrast to Iran’s innovations with drones and its attempts to create better air defenses and a combined operations amphibious force, Iran’s ground forces are basically stuck in the “classical” past. He admits that this “classical” war hasn’t changed since waging a massive conventional war with Iraq, although it had to sacrifice heavily in the war because Iraq had better weapons. T
The commander hints at the reality, which is that Iran’s ground forces may be large on paper but are not really prepared for a modern war.
While they “shake the ground,” the reality is that Iran is trying to learn from other countries. He claims some Iranians study ground operations in Pakistan and that he recently visited Russia. This is a revelation that points to Iran wanting to learn from Russia’s war in Ukraine. The commander says he visited Russian military training school counterparts.
He also references the war on ISIS and how Iran helped regional countries, such as Iraq, fight the jihadist group.
Discussing Iran’s air force, he notes that Iran is still flying older model helicopters and planes. In fact, Iran’s air force is an antique that dates from the era of the Shah and it has not been able to upgrade its planes and helicopters much since. The commander says that Iran makes up for this by having missiles that have a stand-off capability, meaning they can be fired from a distance of some “one hundred kilometers.” Iran’s air force in this respect is of negligible importance.
“Enemies know our power…and they monitor us. We also show a part of our ability to them… The enemy knows that he should not make mistakes in their calculations and should not make the same mistakes they have made in other places regarding Iran. Iran is not like any other country.”
Alireza Sheikh
Admitting Iran's limitations and problems
The commander acknowledges some limitations and problems throughout the interview, although he doesn’t go into a lot of specifics. Clearly, it can be understood that Iran knows its limitations in its conventional armed forces. He says that while the drills are important for learning to combine Iran’s various units together in the field, they have a second message which is to show Iran’s enemies that it is serious. “Enemies know our power…and they monitor us. We also show a part of our ability to them… The enemy knows that he should not make mistakes in their calculations and should not make the same mistakes they have made in other places regarding Iran. Iran is not like any other country.” The long, wide-ranging interview reveals that Iran is aware of its challenges on the modern battlefield and it also shows how the Islamic Republic is increasingly relying on missiles and drones.
It also shows that Iran has a message to the region. It wants its adversaries to know that any conflict with Iran would be a tough one and that Tehran would quickly move to destabilize the Gulf and launch raids and attacks.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-728834

Is it time for UK to shift its engagement with Iran?
Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/January 18, 2023
Manufactured charges of spying for the West are commonplace in Iran and are usually allocated based on the level of pressure the government is feeling domestically or internationally. Saturday’s execution of dual Iranian-British citizen and former Deputy Defense Minister Alireza Akbari, who was arrested three years ago and tortured for allegedly spying for the UK’s MI6, is a manifestation of how far Tehran will go in its pursuit to show that the ongoing domestic protests are authored by Iranians working for the UK, Israel or the US. Akbari, like many others, was executed after being convicted of the “classic” Iranian crime of committing “corruption on Earth and harming the country’s internal and external security.”
Despite the UK and EU nations condemning the execution, claiming that it was another “callous and cowardly act,” with UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly going as far as promising that Akbari’s execution would not go unchallenged, and the slamming of sanctions on Iran’s prosecutor general, it seems that these countries are not yet prepared to proscribe the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.
No doubt Britain is feeling the limitations of its power and frustration at Iran’s impunity in a complex international landscape that is unlikely to change soon. On the other side, as the Iranian regime counts down to Feb. 11, when it will celebrate the so-called Islamic revolution’s 44th anniversary, it might not be difficult for the mullahs to feel victorious, emboldened and still able to hold “big powers” to ransom.
It is not an exaggeration to say that the Iranian regime has been succeeding where others have been failing. For years, the mullahs have succeeded in suppressing and taming the desires of the Iranians, who were once a vibrant, ambitious and outward-looking society. It has succeeded in making the proud Iranian state sink to being on par with nations like North Korea, Venezuela and Syria in terms of the amount of sanctions applied against it.
The revolution has managed to survive and succeed in standing up to the US, UK and Israel, at least in the eyes of many Iranians and others from the wider Islamic world. The revolution could also boast of its success in building and mobilizing an international brigade that is fighting Tehran’s battles in Syria, where militias from Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere have helped prop up the Assad regime since the popular uprising in 2011. And the revolution could claim that its persistence has yielded complete control over four Arab countries — Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq — not to mention its influence on Islamic movements springing up in Gaza, Somalia and Libya.
On the technological level, the country’s advancement has been noticeable, as Russia has been purchasing its kamikaze drones to unleash on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. Last but not least, it has an undoubted ability to effectively hold dual nationals hostage to blackmail nations. For example, the UK recently paid back £400 million ($493 million), which was owed to Iran from an expired British tanks deal signed during the reign of the late shah, in return for the release of dual Iranian-British citizen Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who had been imprisoned for unfounded reasons.
Therefore, I find it unlikely that Iran’s behavior will change anytime soon. And it will not feel concerned if the UK foreign secretary labels its actions “barbaric” or if London takes it a step further and proscribes all of its political, military and judicial leadership as terror-supporting entities, or even labels Iran as a rogue state.
No doubt Britain is feeling the limitations of its power and frustration at Iran’s impunity in a complex international landscape.
The analyses offered to explain Iran’s actions — whether they are seen as a way to limit the internal public discontent, a means of lashing out to remind all of the regime’s unyielding nature or a way to keep the nuclear deal in play — are secondary to the fact that Iran has been presenting itself as an ever-present and continuing danger to add to the West’s many geopolitical challenges, from Russia and Ukraine to China and beyond.
I recall conversations I had some 20 years ago with a British diplomat and expert in Iranian and Middle Eastern affairs as to what was the most important objective of the revolutionary regime of Iran: The survival of the regime, avenging the Iran-Iraq War, becoming the policeman of the Middle East or becoming a nuclear power? At the time, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda had recently been ousted from Afghanistan with the tacit help of Iran, Saddam Hussein had fallen in Baghdad and Tehran was bidding to establish itself as a nuclear-armed nation. The diplomat, of course, never agreed with my thesis and line of questioning, and was always keen to present the Iranian side as responsible and pragmatic, whom the West was able to do business with despite its shortcomings. In line with this thinking, the UK’s critical engagement policy toward Iran was adopted after 2004, ultimately allowing the British Embassy in Tehran to reopen its doors in 2015, as for London it was imperative to keep a line of communication open with the mullahs at a time of trouble in the Middle East.
Today, that narrative looks destined to shift, but the arsenal at Britain’s disposal is now more limited. Iran is supplying weapons to Russia, threatening media organizations based in London with violence for their reporting on the ongoing protests, and it does not seem in a hurry to have sanctions lifted or to resume the stalled nuclear deal negotiations. Will the thinking in London shift after the execution of Akbari, as its position toward Russia changed after its invasion of Ukraine?
*Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist, media consultant and trainer with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.

Whatever we pay our nurses, it is not enough
Ross Anderson/Arab News/January 18, 2023
Healthcare throughout the world is under intolerable strain, mostly as a result of the hangover from the coronavirus pandemic. The worst of COVID-19 may be over, except in China, but the malady lingers on — regardless of what kind of political system its victims live under, or how their healthcare is funded.
In the US, where heaven help you if you do not have private health insurance, thousands of medical staff were laid off during the pandemic and many have not returned, placing unbearable stress on those who remain. Now, it is true that American healthcare has always been a dysfunctional shambles, shamelessly manipulated for profit by powerful vested interests. The US spent $4.3 trillion on healthcare in 2021, or $12,914 per person, more than twice the average of other major countries. But in an analysis of key healthcare outcomes in 11 high-income nations, from maternal deaths to life expectancy, the US came last.
It was bad before, but the pandemic has made it worse. The US will need more than 200,000 new registered nurses every year until 2026 to keep up with a retiring workforce, New York state alone expects a shortage of more than 500,000 nurses by 2025, and nearly a quarter of 5,000 hospitals surveyed by the US Department of Health have what they describe as a “critical staffing shortage.”
At the other end of the political spectrum, thanks to President Xi Jinping’s disastrous “zero COVID” policy, China is only now beginning to endure the nightmare from which the rest of us have just awoken. For three years, Chinese families were locked up in their own homes and the country was shut off from the rest of the world, all in a futile effort to prove that the virus could be beaten.
Having executed a screeching U-turn, China has now unleashed the full horrors of COVID on 1.5 billion people. Hospitals cannot cope with the sick, crematoriums cannot cope with the dead, and the annual migration for Chinese New Year is ensuring that the spread of the virus is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.
In the UK, where the taxpayer-funded National Health Service operates in tandem with private health insurance for those who can afford it or whose employer provides it, matters are no better. A combination of coronavirus lockdowns and COVID stresses on NHS hospitals created a healthcare logjam. When the pandemic was at its height, healthcare providers had neither the staff nor the time to offer preventive checks and screening to patients at risk of heart attacks, strokes, and other life-threatening events. That dam has now well and truly burst. New figures show that 50,000 more people than usual died in 2022, the largest non-pandemic excess death level since 1951.
So this tsunami of ill health knows no national boundaries, and in the vanguard of confronting it are — our nurses. Since the Victorian days of Florence Nightingale, these women (and nowadays often men) have provided everything we need as patients, from an encouraging word or a comforting arm around the shoulder, to bandaging our wounds and dispensing essential medication. They are usually the first people we see when we seek healthcare, and the last we see before we go home, well again.
The essential role played by these professionals, and the high esteem in which they are held worldwide, make it all the more inexplicable that British government ministers should choose now to pick a fight with the country’s nurses.
The NHS, with about 1.7 million staff including just over 320,000 nurses, is the largest nonmilitary public organization in the world, and its purse strings are held by the government. The nurses have asked for a pay increase of 5 percent above inflation, which comes to about 19 percent. The government has offered a rise of £1,400 ($1,700) a year, or about 4 percent. At the end of their tether, members of the Royal College of Nursing went on strike in December for the first time in their 106-year history, with further strikes taking place this week and more scheduled for next month.
In making its derisory offer, the government is hiding behind the recommendation of an independent pay review body — ignoring that when the calculation was made inflation was a fraction of what it is now, and that the review body itself has admitted its recommendation is now out of date.
Unlike most of the rash of industrial action currently afflicting the UK, from train drivers to postal workers, polls suggest that the nurses’ strike has the overwhelming support of at least two thirds of the British people. So how can a government be so out of touch? In this case, the answer appears to be longevity.
The current administration in Westminster has been in power, either shared or absolute, since 2010. The best of the ministerial talent has long since come and gone, and key departmental positions are now filled by scraping the bottom of the barrel — in which context, step forward the Right Honourable Steve Barclay, Member of Parliament for North East Cambridgeshire and His Majesty’s Secretary of State for Health and Social Care.
It is inexplicable that British government ministers should choose now to pick a fight with the country’s nurses.
Barclay is a product of the British military academy at Sandhurst, but the rigors of logical thought that they teach there appear not to have penetrated. In refusing even to discuss pay with the nurses, Barclay argues that a large increase “would turbocharge inflation when we are endeavoring to keep it under control,” a position devoid of reason. It is true that if, for example, workers in a widget factory were to obtain a 20 percent pay increase, the retail price of widgets would probably rise, thus fueling inflation. But how paying nurses more would increase retail prices, Barclay is unable to explain.
For a genuine example of cause and effect, the minister may wish to consider the following: 1. British nurses’ pay has fallen by 8 percent in real terms since 2010; 2. One in 10 nursing posts in England are unfilled, and there is a national shortage of 40,000 nurses. Er, doh! As our American friends say, do the math.
There are two things everyone knows. The first is that at some point Barclay is going to have to sit down with the nurses and negotiate a satisfactory pay deal. The second is that he and the rest of his government will be turfed out of office at the next general election. Neither of these events can come soon enough.
*Ross Anderson is associate editor of Arab News.

Far-right Turkish party raising funds to buy bus tickets to send Syrian refugees home
Menekse Tokyay/Arab News/January 18, 2023
ANKARA: Turkiye’s far-right, anti-refugee Victory (Zafer) Party has launched a fundraising campaign with the pledge that the money raised will be used to pay for one-way bus tickets to send all Syrian refugees home. In a campaign video, the party asked supporters for the names of people they want to be sent back to Syria. It said it will buy tickets not only for the refugees but for those who support refugee rights in Turkiye. “Ticket sales for Zafer Tourism’s one-way trips to Damascus have just begun,” the party’s founder, Umit Ozdag, said in a message posted on Twitter as he asked supporters to respond with the names of Syrians they wanted to make “early reservations” for.
The Victory Party has previously pledged to deport all Syrian refugees within a year if it gains power. But with its latest campaign, Ozdag is also targeting Turkish citizens who have adopted a pro-refugee stance, including journalist Nagehan Alci, by adding their names to a “persona non grata” list.
Syrian-Turkish journalist Ahmet Hamo was also targeted by the campaign, which featured a bus ticket with his name on it. Ozdag previously vowed to strip Hamo of his citizenship if Zafer takes power. According to the UN, Turkiye hosts about 3.6 million Syrians displaced by the long-running civil war in their home country. The Victory Party was founded primarily on an anti-refugee platform and Ozdag often visits Syrian-run businesses telling them to leave the country as soon as possible. It recently published a video on YouTube, called Silent Invasion, to warn people about a supposed dystopian future for Turkiye in which Arabs outnumber Turks. Ruhat Sena Aksener, the acting director of Amnesty International Turkiye, said many of the refugees and asylum seekers in Turkish camps live in constant fear of being sent back to the war-torn country they fled.
“Such discriminatory statements raised in public add to the fear of them being sent back, being discriminated against, and being exposed to racist threats and acts,” she told Arab News.
“The increase in physical attacks against refugees and immigrants with the rise of anti-refugee rhetoric is the clearest indicator of this.”
With presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May in Turkiye, all political parties are taking positions on the refugee issue. According to the latest Turkiye Trends 2022 survey, conducted by Global Akademi, it is the third most important issue among Turkish citizens, behind the economy and terrorism. Turkiye’s main opposition Republican People’s Party, also known as the CHP, has also committed to sending refugees back to Syria if it assumes power. CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu said this would be done in a voluntary and dignified way, as required by the principles of international law, and that security guarantees about the safety of returnees be sought from the Syrian regime. The ruling Justice and Development Party also supports the return of Syrian refugees to Turkish-controlled areas in northern Syria, as part of a process of political normalization with the regime of President Bashar Assad, and Turkish authorities have already deported thousands. The Defense Ministry recently said the return of refugees will be in accordance with UN principles of safe repatriation. According to Begum Basdas, a human rights and migration researcher at the Center for Fundamental Rights at Hertie School in Berlin, the forcible return of refugees to Syria violates the non-refoulement principle of international law codified in the 1951 Refugee Convention, which means Turkiye cannot send anyone to a place they might face violations of their human rights. “Furthermore, the Turkish legal framework on temporary protection of Syrians also includes articles that prohibit refoulement,” she told Arab News. “That said, in recent years most political leaders have chosen to ignore the rule of law to get the upper hand in upcoming elections.” Aksener agrees with this assessment and said: “According to international law, under the non-refoulement principle, it is forbidden for asylum seekers to be sent to countries where they face the possible danger of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, belonging to a particular social group or political opinion.”
Therefore any political campaign that promises or promotes such a plan breaches international law, she added.
“Such actions should be perceived as attempts to discriminate against refugees by increasing racism and xenophobia, and are considered acts against human rights. That’s unacceptable,” Aksener said. Victory Party founder Ozdag recently said there are 13 million refugees in Türkiye without providing any data or proof to support of his claim, compared with the UN figure of about 3.6 million. Basdas said Ozdag’s figure is deliberately unrealistic, designed only to fuel xenophobia and fear among the Turkish public. “This latest campaign of the Victory Party is against international law, and it also aims to target individuals and normalize any violent act against them,” she said. “Racism and discrimination perpetrated by the Victory Party, branded as ‘love of the country,’ is actually a recipe for a future shaped by hatred, distrust and violence, not only toward migrants but to all citizens that stand by human rights and the rule of law in a country that has been in a steady democratic decay.”
In recent years, Basdas said, putting people’s lives at risk has become a political tool used to win elections by distracting voters from the real problems that lie elsewhere. The few people who take a stand against such tactics are targeted in an attempt to silence them. She also criticized European nations for failing to meet their obligations on the issue. “Europe fails to address the lack of effective access to asylum, violations of the principle of non-refoulement, and the discriminatory attacks against refugees, as well as the pushbacks at the borders by designating Turkiye as a safe third country. This must change now,” she said. Western countries have often praised Turkiye’s remarkable efforts in hosting Syrian refugees. However, experts have said that the West should assume more responsibility relating to this issue. “States must fulfill their obligations to protect people in need of international protection, to respect their human rights, and to ensure that they remain in their territory in favorable conditions until a permanent solution is found. Policies should advocate ending (border) pushbacks,” Aksener said. Basdas agrees and said: “The international community should increase resettlement commitments for Syrians from Turkiye and offer sustainable solutions to provide assistance to host this large population in safety.”About 223,881 Syrians have Turkish citizenship and 126,786 of them are eligible to vote in the upcoming elections.

Biden's Arms Package for Ukraine Is Long Overdue
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/January 18, 2023
In one of the more damning examples of his indecisive leadership, Biden has seemed to be more concerned about upsetting Russian President Vladimir Putin than confronting the Kremlin's unprovoked act of aggression against its Ukrainian neighbour.
It could even be argued that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would not have happened in the first place had it not been for Biden's catastrophic handling of the withdrawal of military forces from Afghanistan in the summer of 2022. Biden's decision to abandon the Afghan people to their fate... sent a clear message to autocrats like Putin, as well as China's President Xi Jinping, that the Western powers... no longer had any interest in standing up to tyrannical regimes.
The West's perceived weakness may also explain why Putin made a series of veiled threats about using nuclear weapons if the Western powers became too involved in the Ukraine conflict, which initially had the desired effect of persuading the Biden administration to keep its distance.
At a moment when Putin is giving serious consideration to a new spring offensive to make up for the disastrous losses he suffered last year, the US arms package could prove to be decisive in making sure the Ukrainians do not lose ground.
It is vital, therefore, that the US and its allies set aside their reservations about defeating Putin's Russia, not least because all the indications are that Putin is currently losing his war, and Western support can make sure he suffers a catastrophic defeat.
It is vital therefore that, rather than constantly questioning the need to support the Ukrainian cause, American politicians, policymakers and the media comprehend that making sure that Russia suffers a devastating defeat is very much in America's interest.
It would remove the threat Russia poses to global security for a generation, allowing the Western powers to concentrate their focus on the far greater threat posed to world peace by Communist China.
Neutralising Putin means the Western alliance can ensure it is fully-prepared to deal with any future aggression from Beijing, such as threatening the independence of Taiwan.
In one of the more damning examples of his indecisive leadership, US President Joe Biden has seemed to be more concerned about upsetting Russian President Vladimir Putin than confronting the Kremlin's unprovoked act of aggression against its Ukrainian neighbour. Pictured: Biden and Putin meet on June 16, 2021 in Geneva, Switzerland.
The most charitable thing that can be said about US President Joe Biden's belated decision to supply Ukraine with armoured vehicles is that his administration is finally coming to understand what is required to ensure the Ukrainian forces achieve victory in the brutal war with Russia. The Biden administration may have taken an age to reach its decision to provide Ukraine with 50 Bradley Armoured Vehicles, but the provision of such weaponry is exactly what the Ukrainians need if they are to achieve their goal of defeating their Russian aggressors.
The American decision, moreover, has prompted other Western nations, such as Britain, France and Poland and Germany, to provide their own armour to the Ukrainians, a move that could immeasurably improve the ability of Ukrainian forces to liberate their country from Russia's illegal occupation.
Biden's decision to send Bradleys to Ukraine is a welcome change of direction from an administration that, since the start of the conflict in February last year, has been hesitant about how much support it should give Kyiv. In one of the more damning examples of his indecisive leadership, Biden has seemed to be more concerned about upsetting Russian President Vladimir Putin than confronting the Kremlin's unprovoked act of aggression against its Ukrainian neighbour.
It could even be argued that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would not have happened in the first place had it not been for Biden's catastrophic handling of the withdrawal of military forces from Afghanistan in the summer of 2022. Biden's decision to abandon the Afghan people to their fate, not to mention his failure to properly coordinate the withdrawal with key allies such as Britain, sent a clear message to autocrats like Putin, as well as China's President Xi Jinping, that the Western powers were divided, and no longer had any interest in standing up to tyrannical regimes.
The West's perceived weakness may also explain why Putin made a series of veiled threats about using nuclear weapons if the Western powers became too involved in the Ukraine conflict, which initially had the desired effect of persuading the Biden administration to keep its distance. It was only after the Ukrainians, inspired by President Volodymyr Zelensky's defiant leadership, demonstrated that it was possible both to confront Russian aggression and send the Russians packing that the Biden team overcame its reservations about supporting the Ukrainian cause.
Having been slow to respond to Zelensky's repeated requests for Washington to provide his forces with the equipment they require to defeat the Russians, it took Biden until last summer before he was willing to provide Kyiv with the long-range HIMARS missile systems that have enabled its military to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine's favour. Now, with the Russians said to be preparing to mount a fresh offensive in Ukraine in the spring, the White House has significantly increased its support for the Ukrainian cause by offering to supply 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles as part of a new $2.8 billion arms package for Ukraine.
The Bradley is an armoured infantry carrier used to transport troops on the battlefield. Armed with a 25-mm gun, it also carries a launcher for TOW missiles that can destroy Russian tanks. Other elements in the arms package agreed by the White House include anti-tank missiles, self-propelled howitzers and millions of rounds of ammunition.
At a moment when Putin is giving serious consideration to a new spring offensive to make up for the disastrous losses he suffered last year, the US arms package could prove to be decisive in making sure the Ukrainians do not lose ground. Despite the setbacks they have suffered, the Russians are maintaining their offensive in Ukraine's Donbas region, where they have recently been involved in intense fighting around the strategically important city of Soledar.
Despite taking heavy casualties -- the Russians are estimated to be losing 500 men a day -- the Kremlin seems determined to maintain its campaign against Ukraine, with Putin said to be considering further mobilisations to replenish the enormous battlefield casualties the Russians have suffered to date.
In such circumstances it is vital, therefore, that the US and its allies set aside their reservations about defeating Putin's Russia, not least because all the indications are that Putin is currently losing his war, and Western support can make sure he suffers a catastrophic defeat.
It is vital therefore that, rather than constantly questioning the need to support the Ukrainian cause, American politicians, policymakers and the media comprehend that making sure that Russia suffers a devastating defeat is very much in America's interest. It would remove the threat Russia poses to global security for a generation, allowing the Western powers to concentrate their focus on the far greater threat posed to world peace by Communist China.
Neutralising Putin means the Western alliance can ensure it is fully-prepared to deal with any future aggression from Beijing, such as threatening the independence of Taiwan.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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The Islamist Plan to Conquer East Africa: U.S. Missing in Action
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute./January 18, 2023
The most potent threat to East African stability remains Al-Shabaab, rooted in Somalia. Al-Qaeda helps to finance Al-Shabaab through its contacts across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen.
Al-Shabaab's threat to the American homeland should not be discounted: the group has explored possible scenarios of launching a 9/11 style assault on the US. Shabaab is assessed by US intelligence as Al-Qaeda's wealthiest and largest affiliate.
If Islamists succeed in establishing an Emirate in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique's government could be rendered powerless to combat the spread of radical Islam throughout the country. Using Mozambique as a base of operations, jihadists potentially could export terrorist cells to Indian Ocean island countries such as the Comoros Islands, Madagascar, Mauritius and the Seychelles, and ultimately to southern African nations as well.
If Islamists succeed in establishing an Emirate in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique's government could be rendered powerless to combat the spread of radical Islam throughout the country. Pictured: Burned and damaged huts in the village of Aldeia da Paz outside Macomia, Mozambique on August 24, 2019. On August 1, 2019, the village was attacked by an Islamist group.
Jihadist terrorism poses an existential challenge to Africa's nation-states. While North Africa has been Islamic for a millennium, the Sahel, that part of the continent south of the Sahara, remains under siege by affiliates of the global Islamist networks, Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. France, after a ten-year effort, has abandoned its responsibility to safeguard the sovereignty of its former colonies. Consequently, the Sahel's counterterrorist mission now rests upon the shoulders of a group of regional states called the "G5" : Burkina Faso, Chad. Mali. Mauritania, and Niger.
The most potent threat to East African stability remains Al-Shabaab, rooted in Somalia. Although Al-Shabaab pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda in 2009, it maintains autonomy for its terrorist operations. Al-Qaeda helps to finance Al-Shabaab through its contacts across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen.
Somalia's recently re-elected President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud delivered a confident New Year's address in front of 500 army soldiers who had just returned from training in Eritrea. Mohamud in his address celebrated last year's liberation by US-trained Somali government troops of large swaths of Somali territory, taken back from Al-Shabaab. Mohamud and Somali defense officials boasted that the government forces will defeat al-Shabaab in 2023.
Al-Shabaab defiantly responded to Mohamud's bravado by taking responsibility for twin suicide bombings on January 4, which killed 15 people in central Somalia.
The resiliency of Al-Shabaab may, in part, be explained by the deep faith of the Somalis, who were among the first non-Arabs to embrace Islam. Al-Shabaab's fortunes have waxed and waned since its emergence from a coalition of Islamic extremist organizations in the mid-2000s. At its zenith, from 2006-2011, Al-Shabaab controlled most of southern and eastern Somalia including the capital of Mogadishu, which it conquered in 2006. Following the establishment of a regional military alliance in 2011, Al-Shabaab was driven from Mogadishu in August of that year and continues today to surrender additional territory. Al-Shabaab still poses a threat to its neighbors and to Somalia's pro-Western government by virtue of its recruitment of foreign volunteers.
Ethnic Somalis from Kenya form the largest group of non-Somali citizens in Al-Shabaab. Recruits to Al-Shabaab also come from Ethiopia's largest ethnic group, the Oromo, who are predominately Muslim. Al-Shabaab purchases weapons on the black market and arms traders and receives some arms from Al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen. Al-Shabaab raises large amounts from extortion fees taken from businesses and toll charges on trucks passing through its many checkpoints in Somalia. Al-Shabaab continues to demonstrate its ability to launch terrorist operations throughout Somalia, and also has conducted operations inside member-states of the counter-terrorism force, the African Mission to Somalia (AMISOM), including Kenya and Uganda.
Al-Shabaab's threat to the American homeland should not be discounted: the group has explored possible scenarios of launching a 9/11 style assault on the US. Al-Shabaab is assessed by US intelligence as Al-Qaeda's wealthiest and largest affiliate.
Uganda also is now combatting a jihadist threat from the "Allied Democratic Forces" (ADF). These Islamists are aligned with the Islamic State's Central African Province. Some ADF cells have moved across Uganda's border into the Democratic Republic of the Congo's North Kivu Province.
The most recent jihadist threat to stability in East Africa has emerged in the former Portuguese colony of Mozambique. The epicenter of this Islamic insurgency is in Mozambique's northernmost province of Cabo Delgado. Ansar al-Sunnah is an Al-Qaeda affiliated terrorist group which has massacred about ,3000 people, mostly civilians, while displacing hundreds of thousands of mostly Christian citizens. Ansar's center of gravity is the Mozambican port of Mocimboa da Praia where offshore oil and gas deposits await foreign investment dependent on the security situation. Ansar raises its own finances to buy weapons from heroin trafficking networks and ivory-poaching as well as funds generated from fees they charge traffickers along Mozambique's coast. Ansar draws indigenous followers. in part, from the teachings of Kenyan extremist Imams who helped radicalize the mostly Muslim Macua and Muani peoples in Cabo Delgado. Mozambique's Ansar also has spread jihadist cells to Tanzania.
Counter-terrorist assistance is being extended to Mozambique by South Africa, which has dispatched troops to fight the jihadists. Unfortunately, Ansar seems determined to establish an Islamic Emirate in Cabo Delgado, governed by Sharia law. If they succeed, Mozambique's government could be rendered powerless to combat the spread of radical Islam throughout the country. Using Mozambique as a base of operations, jihadists potentially could export terrorist cells to Indian Ocean island countries such as the Comoros Islands, Madagascar, Mauritius and the Seychelles, and ultimately to southern African nations as well.
*Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.
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“Defenders of the West Makes a Great Gift for the History Lover in Your Life”
Raymond Ibrahim/January 18, 2023
Paula Bolyard, chief editor of PJ Media, recently wrote the following review, titled “Raymond Ibrahim’s ‘Defenders of the West’ Makes for a Great Gift for the History Lover in Your Life”:
PJ Media contributor Raymond Ibrahim has written an engaging, scrupulously documented book chronicling stories of the men who defended the Christian West from the violent, sadistic Islamic invaders of their day. Defenders of the West: The Christian Heroes Who Stood Against Islam, a follow-up to Sword and Scimitar: Fourteen Centuries of War Between Islam and the West, profiles eight men, some of whom you may be familiar with, others not, who stood up against Muslims who were murdering, pillaging, and raping their way across the Christian West.
The book, which is heavily footnoted and cites an astounding number of primary sources, highlights: Duke Godfrey: Defender of Christ’s Sepulcher; The Cid: Lord and Master of War; King Richard: The Lion that Roared at Islam; Saint Ferdinand: Savior of Spain; Saint Louis: Christ’s Tragic Hero; John Hunyadi: The White Knight of Wallachia; Skanderberg: The Albanian Braveheart; and Vlad Dracula: The Dread Lord Impaler. While Defenders of the West is an important historical work, it’s not a dry textbook on the topic, thanks to Ibrahim’s storytelling prowess.
The book is a needed corrective to the modern narrative about The Crusades—that Christians were the aggressors against innocent, non-violent Muslims. Ibrahim writes in the Conclusion, “Although venerated as heroic Defenders of the West by their contemporaries and centuries’ worth of posterity, all eight men profiled in the preceding pages are now explicitly or implicitly seen as the ‘bad guys’ by many of their civilizational heirs.”
Why? “For starters, they defended the lands and cause of Christendom and actually stood against the conquering armies of Islam,” Ibrahim explains. “This is a big no-no for that overwhelming force—generically known as ‘the Left’—that currently dominates mainstream thought and discourse, particularly through those two institutions that have had a profound impact on shaping Western society’s epistemology: media (social and otherwise—news, films, comedies, documentaries, and of course, Hollywood) and academia (from kindergarten to postgraduate studies).”
The author points out that the first Crusaders “traveled to the Holy Land only because Muslims had been slaughtering and enslaving literally hundreds of thousands of Christians in the region over the preceding years and decades” and that Muslims had violently conquered Jerusalem, “repeatedly defiling and torching Christ’s Sepulchre therein—to say nothing of the Islamic conquest of two-thirds of the Christian world in the preceding centuries, all of which gave Europe’s Christians little choice but to fight fire with fire.”
Ibrahim notes that the focus of this work was not to determine whether the Defenders of the West were “true” Christians: “In short and for our purposes, any Defender who identified himself as a Christian and defined his conflict with Islam as on behalf of Christianity—as did all eight men profiled in the coming pages—was, by my standards, deemed eligible for inclusion in this book on ‘Christian heroes.’” He invites readers to determine for themselves whether or not they fit the description.
You’d be hard-pressed to find the information contained in Defenders of the West in a modern academic setting or Hollywood portrayal, which is why this book is essential reading for anyone who seeks to understand the conflict between Islam and the West.

Alliance of the Doomed
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 18/2023
Hearing talks of an Iranian-approved Turkish rapprochement with the Assad regime mediated by Russia, it becomes apparent that weakness, not strength, binds this Asaad-Iran-Russia alliance together. It is the alliance of the doomed.
For example, the Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian announced that his country is willing to supply Lebanon with fuel and rehabilitate its electric power grid. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal has reported that Iran has stopped supplying oil to Syria at low prices. The WSJ claims that Tehran has informed the Syrian regime that it must pay for additional fuel shipments. Worse still, Iran itself is struggling with a gas shortage crisis.
The other interesting matter here is that Assad has been downplaying the prospects of a rapprochement with Türkiye, conditioning it on an end to the “Turkish occupation” of Syrian territory and cooperation on what he called fighting “terrorism.” These conditions were not resolved during the negotiations between Türkiye and Assad but through pressure from Russia. Indeed, Moscow seeks to reconcile Türkiye and Assad, and the reason for this is that it wants to dedicate all of its capacities to the war in Ukraine.
Reports suggest that the Russians intend to transfer the equipment and forces stationed in Syria to Ukraine. They are thus seeking “understanding” between Türkiye and Assad because the Russians do not want to see Iran fill the void that will be left by their withdrawal from Syria filled by Iran.
This raises questions about the seriousness of this alliance between Iran and Russia, which was born out of necessity, given Iran’s domestic affairs, which have left the Mullah regime in crisis and constantly clashing with the Europeans. In addition, the prospects of agreeing to a nuclear deal with the US are waning.
Thus, we are looking at allies, Russia-Iran-Assad, who cannot meet their obligations to their people, or one another. They do not trust one another. All of their strength is founded on the fact that the international powers do not have a real strategy for dealing with the Russians, the Iranians, or of course, the Assad regime, which is the most vulnerable among them. All of this tells us that every foreign battle is a losing one, as the main battle is for building the country domestically- within each individual country- not expansion through wars and conspiracies. It also tells us that any regime’s strength is primarily a matter of domestic strength that derives from its economic, political, and social projects, and not through militias, trading in human life, playing the sectarian card, terrorism, assassinations, and other tactics.
It has also become apparent that this alliance of necessity or alliance of the doomed is not sustainable or successful. Any impact it may have will be destructive for the countries of the alliance themselves. Regardless of the damage done elsewhere, the biggest losers, in the end, will be the parties to the alliance.
The biggest loser among the members of this alliance is its weakest link, the Syrian regime, which owns nothing in light of Russia and Damascus’ domination of the country. Indeed, the Iranians have deeply infiltrated Syria, which is struggling worse than Iraq politically and worse than Lebanon both economically and politically. True, Lebanon has a presidential vacuum, but Syria is a presidency without a country, neither geographically nor structurally. Thus, we are looking at an unsustainable alliance, whatever is being said.