English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 14/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
They sought again to take Him, but He escaped out of their hand
John 10/39-42/Therefore they sought
again to take Him, but He escaped out of their hand, and went away again beyond
the Jordan into the place where John had first baptized; and there He abode. And
many resorted unto Him and said that John did no miracle, but all things that
John spoke of this Man were true.42 And many believed in Him there.
Question: “What is the role of the Holy Spirit
in our lives today?”
GotQuestions.org/January 13/2023
Answer: Of all the gifts given to mankind by God, there is none greater than the
presence of the Holy Spirit. The Spirit has many functions, roles, and
activities. First, He does a work in the hearts of all people everywhere. Jesus
told the disciples that He would send the Spirit into the world to “will convict
the world regarding sin, and righteousness, and judgment” (John 16:8, NASB).
Everyone has a “God consciousness,” whether or not they admit it. The Spirit
applies God’s truths to people's minds to convince them by fair and sufficient
arguments that they are sinners. Responding to that conviction brings us to
salvation. Once we are saved and belong to God, the Spirit takes up residence in
our hearts forever, sealing us with the confirming, certifying, and assuring
pledge of our eternal state as His children. Jesus said He would send the Spirit
to us to be our Helper, Comforter, and Guide. “And I will ask the Father, and he
will give you another Counselor to be with you forever” (John 14:16). The Greek
word translated here “Counselor” means “one who is called alongside” and has the
idea of someone who encourages and exhorts. The Holy Spirit takes up permanent
residence in the hearts of believers (Romans 8:9; 1 Corinthians 6:19-20, 12:13).
Jesus gave the Spirit as a “compensation” for His absence, to perform the
functions toward us which He would have done if He had remained personally with
us.
Among those functions is that of revealer of truth. The Spirit’s presence within
us enables us to understand and interpret God’s Word. Jesus told His disciples
that “when he, the Spirit of truth, comes, he will guide you into all truth”
(John 16:13). He reveals to our minds the whole counsel of God as it relates to
worship, doctrine, and Christian living. He is the ultimate guide, going before,
leading the way, removing obstructions, opening the understanding, and making
all things plain and clear. He leads in the way we should go in all spiritual
things. Without such a guide, we would be apt to fall into error. A crucial part
of the truth He reveals is that Jesus is who He said He is (John 15:26; 1
Corinthians 12:3). The Spirit convinces us of Christ’s deity and incarnation,
His being the Messiah, His suffering and death, His resurrection and ascension,
His exaltation at the right hand of God, and His role as the judge of all. He
gives glory to Christ in all things (John 16:14). Another one of the Holy
Spirit’s roles is that of gift-giver. First Corinthians 12 describes the
spiritual gifts given to believers in order that we may function as the body of
Christ on earth. All these gifts, both great and small, are given by the Spirit
so that we may be His ambassadors to the world, showing forth His grace and
glorifying Him.
The Spirit also functions as fruit-producer in our lives. When He indwells us,
He begins the work of harvesting His fruit in our lives—love, joy, peace,
patience, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness, and self-control
(Galatians 5:22-23). These are not works of our flesh, which is incapable of
producing such fruit, but they are products of the Spirit’s presence in our
lives. The knowledge that the Holy Spirit of God has
taken up residence in our lives, that He performs all these miraculous
functions, that He dwells with us forever, and that He will never leave or
forsake us is cause for great joy and comfort. Thank God for this precious
gift—the Holy Spirit and His work in our lives!
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 13-14/2023
Lebanese Security arrested the activist Noon, and a number of families of
the victims of the port explosion
Guterres Extends Lebanon Tribunal Until Dec. 31 to Wrap Up Work
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian held talks Friday in Beirut
with his Lebanese counterpart Abdallah Bou Habib.
Top Iran diplomat says talks with Saudis could restore ties
In Beirut, Iranian FM encourages a 'swift' presidential election
Mikati says working on facilitating country's affairs despite hardships
Lebanon Army Shoots at Israeli Drone
Israeli army chief threatens to 'send Lebanon 50 years back in time'
Wage and transport stipend hike approved for private sector
Lebanese Politician Camille Dory Chamoun: We Should Sacrifice The 'Resistance'
For The Sake Of Lebanon, Not The Other Way Around; Otherwise, Our Areas Should
Be Separated From Those Controlled by Hizbullah
Lebanese Daily: Hizbullah Secretary General Nasrallah Reiterates His
Organization Numbers More Than 100,000 fighters; Warns Region And World To Face
Painful 'Birth Pangs'
Former Hizbullah MP Nawaf Mousawi: Soleimani Played A Significant Role In
Organizing Afghan Resistance To U.S. Occupation; Israel Will Not Last A Day
Without U.S. Support
Six wanted in relation to death of Irish peacekeeper in Lebanon
SchoolTec exhibition to be held Jan. 18-20 at Mövenpick
MECC and OHCHR organize Seminar entitled "Dignity, Freedom and Justice" marking
75th anniversary of adoption of Universal Declaration of Human Rights
Titles For The
Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 13-14/2023
100 EU Parliamentarians Sign Letter Calling for Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps Terrorist Designation
Britain Considering Declaring IRGC a Terrorist Organization
Iranian Filmmaker Temporarily Released
Former NATO commander says Putin is 'scrambling' for manpower in Ukraine and
'will take anything' at this point
Russia Says it Has Taken Control of Ukraine’s Soledar
Russia says it took Soledar, Ukraine denies its capture
Russia's defense manufacturing sector is using convict labor to meet war-time
demands: UK intel
Western Tanks Appear Headed to Ukraine, Breaking Another Taboo
Russian oil shipped to Asia in Chinese supertankers amid ship shortage
Russia's top military brass and an infamous mercenary leader are feuding over
who gets credit for taking back a Ukrainian town
US Envoy Visits Ramallah, Palestinians Demand ‘Urgent Solution’
Assad Meets Putin’s Envoy, Demands End to Turkish ‘Occupation’
Israel's outgoing army chief rebukes far-right government
Nighttime Israeli Arrests Haunt Palestinian Kids, Families
Biden investigated over classified documents
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 13-14/2023
Is There a Legal Remedy for George Santos' Lies?/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone
Institute/January 13, 2023
Islamic State (ISIS) In 2022: Growing Threat Continuing Into 2023/Y. Kerman/MEMRI/January
13/2023
The Question that Khamenei Faces/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/January, 13/2023
Iranian Regime’s Legitimacy Crisis Leads to Killing of the Youth/Camelia
Entekhabifard/Asharq Al Awsat/January, 13/2023
Security Challenges Facing the New Israeli Government/Jacob Nagel/The Jerusalem
Strategic Tribune/January 13/2023
Iran won’t be sidelined by Turkiye-Syria warmth/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/January
13, 2023
Taliban liars will never change/Luke Coffey/Arab News/January 13, 2023
on January 13-14/2023
Lebanese
Security arrested the activist Noon, and a number of families of the victims of
the port explosion
LCCC/January 13/2023
The General Directorate of State Security, based on an order from the Appeal
Public Prosecutor in Beirut, Judge Zaher Hamadeh, arrested today the
activist William Noun, on the background of a phrase he uttered on MTV on
Marcel Ghanem's talk show. A large number of families of the victims of the port
explosion gathered in the vicinity of the State Security branch in Ramlet
al-Bayda, where Noon is held, and demanded his immediate release. A group of
lawyers, also rushed to the State Security branch to follow up on Noon's case.
The angry crowd called for the immediate release of Noon, or arrest all of them
to be beside Noon, and harshly criticizing the biased stance of the state who
not honor the blood of the martyrs and vowed more escalation, saying: "We are
all William."
Guterres Extends Lebanon Tribunal Until Dec.
31 to Wrap Up Work
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 13 January, 2023
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has extended the mandate of the
international tribunal that investigated the 2005 assassination of Lebanon’s
former prime minister Rafik Hariri until the end of the year to complete
non-judicial functions so it can cease operation. UN
spokesman Stephane Dujarric said Thursday that a completion plan, developed and
agreed by the United Nations and the government of Lebanon, will guide the
Special Tribunal for Lebanon to ensure the completion of its work by Dec. 31.
It includes preserving record and archives, responding to requests for
information, and ensuring the protection and support of victims and witnesses
who cooperated with its work, The Associated Press quoted him as saying. The
tribunal's mandate had been set to expire at the end of February. Last June,
appeals judges sentenced two Hezbollah members to life imprisonment for their
roles in the assassination. Hassan Habib Merhi and
Hussein Hassan Oneissi were tried in absentia at the court near The Hague,
Netherlands, and convicted on appeal in March of five crimes, including being
accomplices to the intentional homicide of Hariri and 21 others, and the
wounding of 226 others. They were killed and injured
when plotters detonated a huge truck bomb outside a hotel on Beirut’s seafront
as Hariri’s motorcade drove past. The tribunal’s president, Czech judge Ivana
Hrdličková, told the court in June that Merhi and Oneissi were receiving life
sentences for each of their five convictions and if they are ever captured and
imprisoned, the sentences would be served concurrently.
Prosecutors appealed after the two men were acquitted in April 2020
following a lengthy trial that found another Hezbollah member, Salim Ayyash,
guilty of involvement in the Feb. 14, 2005, blast. Ayyash, who also was tried in
absentia, received a life prison sentence.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein
Amir-Abdollahian held talks Friday in Beirut with his Lebanese counterpart
Abdallah Bou Habib.
Naharnet/13
January 2023 12:48
“We heard from Abdollahian Iran’s keenness on Lebanon’s stability and the
importance of finalizing the presidential juncture,” Bou Habib said at a joint
press conference after the meeting. “Lebanon is keen
on Iran’s stability and it rejects the interference of any country in the
affairs of other countries,” Bou Habib added.
Abdollahian for his part stressed that Iran “will remain a loyal friend to the
Lebanese republic,” adding that Tehran “would sense great joy when it notices
that problems and difficulties have started to decrease in Lebanon.”“Cooperation
between Iran and Lebanon reflects positively on the interests of our two
peoples,” he went on to say.As for Lebanon’s electricity crisis, the top Iranian
diplomat said his country is “fully ready to rehabilitate the power plants in
Lebanon, and build new plants if needed, if there is consensus on this matter.”
Abdollahian later held separate meetings with Speaker Nabih Berri,
caretaker PM Najib Mikati and Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
Top Iran diplomat says talks with Saudis could restore ties
BEIRUT (AP) /Fri, January 13, 2023
Talks between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia are continuing and could
eventually restore diplomatic relations that were severed years ago, Iran’s
foreign minister said Friday.
Hossein Amirabdollahian told reporters in Beirut that he met with Saudi Foreign
Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud during a conference in Jordan last
month. The meeting was the highest-level encounter between the two countries
since they cut relations seven years ago.
Sunni powerhouse Saudi Arabia and Iran, which is majority Shiite, have been at
odds since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, but relations worsened after Riyadh
in 2016 executed a leading Shiite cleric, Nimr al-Nimr, setting off protests in
both countries and souring diplomatic relations. In Tehran, demonstrators set
fire to the Saudi Embassy. Direct talks were launched
in April 2021, brokered by Iraq, in a bid to improve ties. The mere existence of
a dialogue was seen as important, even if the only notable result so far has
been Iran reopening the country’s representative office to the Organization of
Islamic Cooperation in the Saudi city of Jeddah.
“There was an agreement in our points of view to continue with the Saudi-Iran
dialogue in what would eventually normalize relations between the two
countries,” Amirabdollahian said about the December meeting in Jordan.
Amirabdollahian said the hope is that, eventually, we will reach an agreement on
“reopening diplomatic missions and embassies in Riyadh and Tehran."
The Iranian diplomat also praised recent contacts between Syrian and
Turkish officials saying such talks could positively impact both countries.
Turkish and Syrian defense ministers held talks in Moscow in late December, the
first ministerial-level meeting between Damascus and Ankara since relations
broke down with the start of the Syrian civil war more than 11 years ago.
Turkey and Syria have been on opposing sides of the Syrian conflict, with
Turkey backing rebels trying to oust Syrian President Bashar Assad. Damascus has
also denounced Turkey’s hold over stretches of northern Syria seized in a series
of military incursions since 2016 to drive away Kurdish rebels. Assad's office
released a statement Thursday following the Syrian president's meeting with
Russian presidential envoy in Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, saying that the
Moscow-backed talks should aim to “end occupation and the support of terrorism”
— a reference to Turkey’s backing of insurgents in Syria.
Later Friday, the Iranian top diplomat held talks with Lebanese officials
and also, separately, with the head of the Lebanese militant Hezbollah group,
Hassan Nasrallah. Iran backs Hezbollah, which has been designated a terrorist
group by the United States and Israel. Hezbollah said
in a statement that Nasrallah and Amirabdollahian discussed Israel's new,
hard-line government and regional developments. Meaanwhile, in the south, the
Lebanese army said troops opened fire at an Israeli drone that had violated
Lebanon's airspace. It gave no further details.
In Beirut, Iranian FM encourages a 'swift'
presidential election
L'Orient/13 January 2023 12:48
'We are ready to provide Lebanon with fuel and to build power plants,' Hossein
Amir Abdollahian said, during a joint conference with his Lebanese counterpart
Abdallah Bou Habib.
BEIRUT — Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, who arrived in
Beirut Thursday evening for a three-day visit, said Friday that Teheran,
Hezbollah's main ally, "does not interfere in internal" Lebanese affairs, and
encouraged "a swift [presidential] election process," as Lebanon has been
without a head of state since Michel Aoun's mandate ended October 31.
On the economic level, Abdollahian said that Iran is ready to provide
Lebanon with fuel and to build power plants, reiterating Tehran's promises made
in the past months, which have yet to materialize.
'Swift election process'
"Iran does not interfere in internal Lebanese affairs but calls on all political
parties for a dialogue," Abdollahian said, while answering a question during a
joint press conference with his Lebanese counterpart, Abdallah Bou Habib. He
also insisted on a "swift election process," as Lebanon grapples with an
unprecedented double vacancy at the executive level — the Mikati's government
has been in caretaker mode since last May. For his
part, Bou Habib said in the press conference that "we heard from Abdollahian
that Iran is attached to Lebanon's stability and the importance of holding the
presidential election."
Parliament has convened ten times so far to try to elect a new president, but
has failed each time due to a lack of political agreement, as is customary in
Lebanon. A new session is scheduled for January 19. "Lebanon is keen on Iran's
stability and rejects any country's interference in the affairs of other
countries," Bou Habib added, in reference to the monthslong protests shaking
that country.
Electricty and fuel
"Iran is ready to present Lebanon not only with fuel but Iran also has the
manpower and scientific means to build electricity factories to aid the country
that has been hit by crisis," Abdollahian said, during the press conference.
During a Beirut meeting in March, the Iranian Foreign Minister assured
Bou Habib that Iran “only wants the best for Lebanon.”In September, Iran said it
planned to ship free fuel to Lebanon to assist it in coping with its electricity
crisis. The oil has yet to materialize. Hezbollah
Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly urged Lebanon's government to
turn to Iran for fuel to ease its energy crisis. However, US and international
sanctions on Iran make could make this process difficult for Lebanon.
"There are foreign obstacles and pressures but the attempts [to import
fuel' will continue," Bou Habib underlined.Abdollahian also stated Friday that
Iran will continue "supporting Lebanese and Palestinian resistance as they are
continuously threatened by the Zionist entity [Israel], especially since the
rise of the new far-right government."
Following his Nov. 1 election win, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
took office late last month at the head of a coalition with extreme-right and
ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, some of whose officials now head key ministries.
Abdollahian also met with caretaker Prime minister Najib Mikati and with
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in the afternoon. He is scheduled to visit Syria
on Saturday, where Iran supports the regime of Bashar al-Assad, according to the
Syrian pro-government daily Al-Watan. The Iranian
minister arrived Thursday evening in Beirut for a three-day visit, during which
he plans to meet with several political leaders, the National news agency
reported. The Iranian head of diplomacy also met with
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, one of Iran's main allies in the
region. This meeting is being coordinated by the Iranian Embassy in Beirut and
Hezbollah, according to our correspondent.
Tense regional context
The Iranian minister's visit comes at a time when Iran continues to be shaken by
monthslong mass protests triggered by the death while in custody of Mahsa Amini,
a 22-year-old Iranian-Kurdish woman, arrested by the morality police for
allegedly violating the Islamic Republic's strict dress code. The Iranian
regime's bloody repression of the protests, which have been followed by several
executions, has prompted several Western powers to impose more sanctions on the
Iranian regime. The visit of the top Iranian diplomat to Lebanon comes amid a
period of regional tension. Negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue have been
at a standstill for months, raising fears of a possible regional military
conflict. Meanwhile, Israel has announced military maneuvers in the occupied
Shebaa Farms, on the border between Lebanon and Syria, accentuating
apprehensions of wider confrontation, which might directly or indirectly involve
Iran.
*Additional reporting by Hoda Chedid
Mikati says working on facilitating country's
affairs despite hardships
Naharnet/Friday, 13 January, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Friday held talks with visiting Iranian
Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. The National News Agency said the
meeting tackled means to develop the relations between Lebanon and Iran in
addition to the situation in the region.
“The situations in Lebanon are difficult and we are working on facilitating
affairs and we have confidence and determination to work to exit this crisis,”
Mikati for his part said. Abdollahian meanwhile said that “Iran will stand by
Lebanon and will support it in all circumstances,” adding that “it desires to
develop and activate the relations on all levels.”
Lebanon Army Shoots at Israeli Drone
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 13 January, 2023
The Lebanese army said on Friday its troops shot at an Israeli drone that
crossed into Lebanon's southern airspace, with a security source saying the
drone was not brought down. Israel regularly flies military aircraft in
Lebanon's airspace without permission but it is rare for troops to target them.
The Lebanese army statement said a patrol was inspecting a separate incident in
the South when a "drone belonging to the Israeli enemy violated Lebanese
airspace," prompting troops to begin shooting in its direction. A Lebanese
security source told Reuters they did not shoot it down. The Israeli military
said it was not aware of such reports. Lebanon and Israel agreed in October to
delineate their maritime border after years of US-mediated talks. The land
boundary between the two remains disputed. In December, a United Nations
peacekeeper was killed when his vehicle was fired on in Lebanon's South, where
security is controlled by Hezbollah, a staunch enemy of Israel.
Israeli army chief threatens to 'send Lebanon
50 years back in time'
Naharnet/Friday, 13 January, 2023
Israel’s outgoing army chief Aviv Kohavi has warned that if a new war broke out
with Hezbollah, Israel would send Lebanon 50 years back in time through what he
called “waves of firepower” that Israel would unleash on the Iranian-backed
group as well as against Lebanese national infrastructure.
“Hezbollah and (its leader Sayyed Hassan) Nasrallah know that Lebanon will be
hit in an unprecedented way which it has never experienced in its history,”
Kohavi said in an English-language interview published by The Jeursalem Post. “A
third Lebanon war will see a powerful attack that they have never experienced.
They know this,” he added. Noting that the bank of Hezbollah targets Israel has
today is “unprecedented,” Kohavi said that “it ranges from the southern border
with Lebanon up to Beirut, and from the Mediterranean Sea to the Bekaa Valley in
the east.” “Lebanon is blanketed with thousands and thousands of targets,” the
Israeli commander added. “We significantly improved
our operational plans, and there are waves of firepower that will strike all of
these targets and will cause large and unprecedented damage to Lebanon,
including to national infrastructure which supports terror, such as electrical
power stations and other infrastructure,” he said, hailing a “clear increase” in
Israel’s “offensive capabilities.”
Wage and transport stipend hike approved for private sector
Naharnet/Friday, 13 January, 2023
Caretaker Labor Minister Mustafa Bayram announced Friday that it has been
decided to approve a hike of an LBP 1.9 million on the wages of the private
sector and to increase the transportation allowance from LBP 95,000 to LBP
125,000. The decision was taken in a meeting for the country’s Consumer Price
Index Committee.“We will press to approve this hike for the public sector,”
Bayram added, noting that “tuition grants have been doubled.”“What we achieved
today obliges the National Social Security Fund to carry out adjustments related
to hospitalization, medicines and maternity,” the minister said.
Lebanese Politician Camille Dory Chamoun: We Should
Sacrifice The 'Resistance' For The Sake Of Lebanon, Not The Other Way Around;
Otherwise, Our Areas Should Be Separated From Those Controlled by Hizbullah
MEMRI/January 13/2023
Source: Al-Jadeed TV (Lebanon)
https://www.memri.org/tv/lebanese-politican-chamoun-resistance-is-a-burden-will-not-sacrifice-for-it
Lebanese MP Camille Dory Chamoun, the leader of the National Liberal Party and
grandson of Lebanon's second President Camille Chamoun, said on a January 3,
2023 show on Al-Jadeed TV (Lebanon) that he believes that the "resistance" no
longer plays a positive role in Lebanon and that it has now become a burden. He
also said that the Lebanese people are tired of wars and of the mass emigration
from the country, stating: "We will not sacrifice Lebanon for the sake of the
resistance." He added that people who think Lebanon is "doing great" are free to
live with the "resistance, the smuggling, and the chaos that we are seeing
today," but should do so in their own areas. For more information about Camille
Dory Chamoun, see MEMRI TV Clip No. 8898. Camille Dory Chamoun: "I believe that
the role of the resistance in Lebanon is over. It hurts us. It has become a
burden more than a symbol of victory. They should leave their glory days behind
and move on to a new phase. Today, the Lebanese people are weary of wars,
catastrophes, displacement, and the massive emigration. Most of our children
live abroad. "If we continue this way, we will destroy this country for good. We
are not prepared to continue this way. We will not sacrifice Lebanon for the
sake of the resistance. We would rather sacrifice the resistance and let Lebanon
live. Honestly."
Interviewer: "But half of Lebanon thinks differently. You need to consider the
other opinion."
Chamoun: "If they think that our country is doing great, with the resistance,
the smuggling, and the chaos that we are seeing today — fine, let them live in
their areas and we will live in ours."
Lebanese Daily: Hizbullah Secretary General Nasrallah
Reiterates His Organization Numbers More Than 100,000 fighters; Warns Region And
World To Face Painful 'Birth Pangs'
MEMRI/January 13/2023
On January 8, 2023, the Lebanese anti-Hizbullah Al-Modon online daily reported
that at a gathering with new recruits, Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan
Nasrallah said that 9,378 new soldiers had joined Hizbullah, which he declared
currently numbers more than 100,000 fighters. Nasrallah stressed the need to
maintain preparedness and a high level of military and security readiness,
"because the region and the entire world are moving toward [a painful phase of]
birth pangs."[1]
The website notes that during the same meeting Nasrallah stated that in addition
to the fighters, the organization comprises 90,000 scouts who are members of the
Imam Mahdi Scouts youth movement, and added, "and what is hidden is even
greater." Addressing the new recruits he urged them, "To come and invest more
hard work and effort."
It is noteworthy that this is not the first time that Nasrallah has mentioned
the number 100,000 in the context of the scope of his organization's fighting
force. In an October 2021 speech, for the first time he provided the alleged
number of soldiers in the ranks of his organization, citing 100,000 "trained
men."[2]
[1] Almodon.com, January 8, 2023.
[2] See MEMRI JTTM Report: Following Nasrallah's Claim That Hizbullah Has
100,000 Fighters, Supporters On Social Media Declare Willingness To Die For Him,
October 28, 2021.
Former Hizbullah MP Nawaf Mousawi: Soleimani Played A Significant Role In
Organizing Afghan Resistance To U.S. Occupation; Israel Will Not Last A Day
Without U.S. Support
https://www.memri.org/tv/former-hizbullah-mp-mousawi-nothing-heroic-about-soleimani-assassination
MEMRI/January 13/2023
Source: Al-Manar TV (Lebanon)
Former Hizbullah MP Nawaf Mousawi said in a January 3, 2023 show on Al-Manar TV
(Hizbullah-Lebanon) that there was nothing "heroic" about the January 2020 U.S.
assassination of IRGC Qods Force Commander General Qasem Soleimani, since it was
known when his plane would land and who is on board. In contrast, he said that
an example of "real heroism" was an operation he claimed was carried out in the
same month by Soleimani's "disciples" during which a CIA plane carrying top CIA
officials, including Iran Mission Center commander Michael D'andrea, was
"downed" (false reports about such an attack were circulated by Russian and
Iranian news outlets in January 2020 – in truth, D'andrea retired from the CIA
in 2021). Mousawi also said that Soleimani had played a "significant" role in
the Afghan resistance to the U.S. "occupation". For more about Nawaf Mousawi,
see MEMRI TV Clip No. 1709.
Nawaf Mousawi: "These methods – which are usually called 'terrorist methods' –
of beheadings or carrying out assassinations in such a cowardly way... Why is it
such a big accomplishment [to kill Soleimani who came on] a plane, and you know
when it was scheduled to land and who was on board, and then you use this
method? There is nothing heroic about this.
"Real heroism is when, for example, you manage to down a CIA plane with ten
senior CIA officials on board, including Hajj Michael D'andrea.
"On the night of Hajj Qasem [Soleimani's] martyrdom, that plane was downed in
Afghanistan by Hajj Qasem's disciples.
"Perhaps [Nasrallah] did not have enough time to mention in his speech the
significant role played by Hajj Qasem in launching the Afghan resistance to the
American occupation, but this is well-known. Hajj Qasem did not neglect a single
place from where he could fight the American occupation and aggression. This is
the framework of how he saw the mission of the Qods Force. Without American
support, the Zionist entity cannot last a single day.
"When the U.S. stops its support to the Zionist entity, it will not last even a
single hour in the region."
Six wanted in relation to death of Irish peacekeeper in
Lebanon
Elliot Maroun/The Middle East Beat/ January 13, 2023
https://themiddleeastbeat.com/six-wanted-in-relation-to-death-of-irish-peacekeeper-in-lebanon/
Lebanese security forces are still looking to locate six people connected to an
incident in December that caused the death of an Irish peacekeeper in Lebanon.
These six individuals, alongside one more person, have been charged by a
military court for peacekeeper’s Pvt. Sean Rooney’s death in Lebanon. The
vehicle he was driving was shot at, making it the first lethal attack on UN
peacekeepers in Lebanon since 2015. The individual accused of murder has been
arrested, while the remaining six face charges such as attempted murder and
damaging a vehicle. The inquiry is being managed by military investigative judge
Fadi Sawan, who is well-known for prosecuting terrorism cases. The Lebanese
military is leading the pursuit of the six individuals, and the attack took
place in the village of Al Aqbiya, where Hezbollah has significant influence.
The only one of the seven arrested so far is said to be a supporter of Hezbollah
but not an official member. In a statement issued following the incident,
Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia and a prominent political party that has a
major presence in Al Aqbieh and across the country denied involvement in the
soldier’s murder. While Hezbollah denied involvement in the soldier’s murder
they also mentioned that the killing was “unintended,” implying that Hezbollah
likely had some kind of involvement. The incident involving the UN peacekeepers
occurred in the village of Al Aqbieh, located in southern Lebanon, which is
controlled by Hezbollah. While the UN vehicle is said to have strayed
unintentionally into the village, why the soldiers came under attack remains
unclear. The UNIFIL convoy had been on its way to Beirut before the incident,
and there are more than 11,000 UN peacekeeper currently stationed in Lebanon.
More than 300 Unifil soldiers have been killed since 1978 when Unifil was
created to maintain peace after Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon. Six
international peacekeepers were wounded in a bomb blast in southern Lebanon in
2007.
SchoolTec exhibition to be held Jan. 18-20 at Mövenpick
Naharnet/January 13/2023
SchoolTec, the first event of its kind in the country, is inviting school
principals, school administrators, teachers, IT managers, professionals,
university teachers, training managers, trainers, and parents to get ready to
attend the exhibition that will take place for three days starting Wednesday
January 18th until Friday January 20th, 2023, from 3:00 until 9:00 p.m. in
Mövenpick Hotel Beirut. WHY ATTEND?
Get a comprehensive overview of methods, learning materials and
technological solutions; discover the latest developments surrounding
educational technologies. Get inspired, attend, participate and discuss with
decision-makers. If you are interested to learn more
about: Digital textbook, educational content,
e-training, educational apps, hardware and software, laboratory materials,
instructional materials, teaching materials, training programs, and more.
And if you are interested to: Meet with potential partners, expand business
opportunities, improve community relations and meet with industry leaders,
policymakers and decision-makers.
This is your opportunity. Join SchoolTec 2023 in Beirut.
Topics that will be covered in the conference will include:
Education management, innovation in education, special education,
sustainability in educational institutions, and many more.
Visitor entry is FREE OF CHARGE. In order to access SchoolTec, you are required
to pre-register ONLINE via the link:
https://ihjoz.com/events/6885
MECC and OHCHR organize Seminar entitled
"Dignity, Freedom and Justice" marking 75th anniversary of adoption of Universal
Declaration of Human Rights
NNA/January 13/2023
On the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the adoption of the Universal
Declaration of Human Rights, the Middle East Council of Churches, in partnership
with the Regional Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human
Rights (OHCHR), organized an intellectual seminar entitled "Dignity, Freedom and
Justice". It was held as part of the MECC work to spread and defend the human
rights’ principles, on Wednesday 11 January 2023, at the headquarters of the
MECC General Secretariat in Beirut.
Attendees were the UN Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Resident and
Humanitarian Coordinator for Lebanon, Mr. Imran Riza, Professor Michel Abs, MECC
Secretary General, Lebanese Deputy Dr. Michel Moussa, Dr. Habib Charles Malik,
Lawyer Dr. Antoine Sfeir, Professor Antoine Messarra, alongside intellectuals,
jurists, researchers and activists working for human rights and humanitarian
social issues...
The seminar included many sessions, which started at 10 am and ended at 4h30 pm,
with speakers in the fields of law and human rights, with the participation of
specialists and jurists in the offices of the General Secretariat, or online via
Zoom. The seminar was presented by the Director of the MECC Communication and
Public Relations Department Journalist Huguette Salameh, and broadcasted live on
Télé Lumière and Noursat and the MECC Facebook page.
The seminar began with a speech delivered by the Secretary General Dr. Michel
Abs who highlighted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and its
foundations. He said “we find that the largest percentage of humanity considers
the rules listed in the Declaration as axioms that must be secured and set up
laws of dealing between people… Hence therefore the necessity of immunization,
immunizing minds and souls by consolidating values that secure a better future
for humanity… and the need to promote the culture of sound human rights at the
level of humanity…”
He continued “We have trained our working teams, in the various afflicted areas
that lie to the East of Antioch, to deal with the homeless, the afflicted, and
the destitute, with the dignity of love that the Incarnate Master has re
commended for us to stress… The Council has dealt extensively with human rights
during the eighties and nineties, and has a long history in this field, but
today, our focus is on the concept of human dignity.”
He ended “we need a culture of human rights in order to make sure that humanity
has left the jungle towards society never to return, and in order to prevent the
spread of social Darwinism, where the strong kill the weak, so that every human
being gets his rights, and his dignity is the crown of these rights.”
Then the UN Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Resident and Humanitarian
Coordinator for Lebanon, Mr. Imran Riza, delivered a speech in which he
highlighted the celebration of the 75th anniversary of the adoption of the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights. He also indicated that this Declaration
was able to enact rights which protect the human being and preserve her/ his
dignity with equality.
He added that Lebanon is a founding member of the United Nations and a major
contributor to this declaration. In this context, he stressed the importance of
the various mechanisms which represent the state's obligations aiming at
protecting and promoting human rights cited in international treaties and
legislation.
Afterwards, the first session started, under the title "Introduction to
International Human Rights Law - Concepts and Terminology". Lawyer Dr. Antoine
Sfeir, a Professor of international law, spoke about the importance of human
rights its risks, in addition to legally binding documents and international
protection of human rights, stressing that MECC has a message, especially in
working for justice, and its real revolution is the revolution of truth for the
sake of man.
Dr. Moatasem Billah Adham, a Professor of civil law and human rights, also
highlighted the characteristics of human rights, and mentioned the Christian and
Islamic views in this context, as well as the Universal Declarations of Human
Rights.
After the morning break, the second session focused on "the development of the
human rights system since the Universal Declaration of Human Rights was issued
in 1948". During the session Professor Alaa Kaoud, Deputy Regional Commissioner
of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, shed lights on the
role of the Commission and the international mechanisms reflecting its work,
noting that there are many measures that cover a wide range of rights.
From his end, Dr. Habib Charles Malik, a Professor of history and cultural
studies, presented his father, Professor Charles Malik's thought in the field of
human rights, in addition to his approach, view, and contribution to the
formulation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights’ content.
After the lunch break, the third session began under the title "Lebanon's
Obligations Amidst International Human Rights Law", in which Dr. Michel Moussa,
Deputy at the Lebanese Parliament and head of the Parliament's Human Rights
Committee, spoke about the efforts made in Lebanon to draft legislation related
to human rights, highlighting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and an
historically overview about of the principles of these rights in Lebanese law,
as well as the national plan which was prepared within this framework.
Professor Antoine Messarra, President of the UNESCO Chair in Comparative
Religious Studies, Mediation and Dialogue (CHUR) at Saint Joseph university
(USJ) in Beirut, underlined how human rights are undermined, as well as the
obstacles which prevented legislation, and Lebanon's obligations amidst
international law. In the last session, future
prospects were discussed in addition to how MECC and its partners can
participate in the campaign launched by the Office of the United Nations High
Commissioner for Human Rights on 10 December 2022. It is a year-long campaign
under the theme “Dignity, Freedom, and Justice for All”, calling on to “Stand up
for Human Rights and Defend it”. This session was moderated by Dr. Laure Abi
Khalil, Professor of Public Policy and Strategies, and Lawyer Rafik Zakharia, a
Specialist in the United Nations human rights system and civil activist on the
issue of the death penalty.
At the end, the seminar issued a set of joint recommendations between the Middle
East Council of Churches and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner
for Human Rights, revolving around the issue of freedom, achieving justice,
preserving dignity and human rights. The recommendations will be raised to the
concerned regional and international parties and agencies.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 13-14/2023
100 EU Parliamentarians Sign Letter Calling for Iranian Revolutionary
Guard Corps Terrorist Designation
Andrew Bernard/Algemeiner/January 13/2023
More than 100 members of the European Parliament on Wednesday signed a letter
calling for the European Union to designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) in its entirety as a terrorist organization, as world powers
continue to ratchet up rhetoric against the Iranian regime. The letter, sent to
the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell,
says that the EU’s current measures against Iran are “by far not enough.”
Currently, the EU has only imposed sanctions on the IRGC’s Aerospace Force. “The
Iranian people are facing a relentless regime, while merely wanting to exercise
their universal, basic human rights,” the letter reads. “This violent repression
of millions requires a firm and strong European response.”Iran’s violent
crackdown on protesters and its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine has prompted
US officials to allege that the regime may be “contributing to widespread war
crimes” in Ukraine. Ukrainian defense officials say that Iran has so far sent
Russia more than 2,000 drones that have been used both on the battlefield and in
indiscriminate attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure.
Other countries have also indicated a shift in approach towards Iran. Egypt and
Saudi Arabia on Thursday issued a joint statement of their foreign ministers
calling on Iran to halt its nuclear weapons program.
In the UK, foreign office minister Leo Docherty told Parliament Thursday that
the UK is actively considering designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
“I want to see a cutting of all political ties and no further negotiations with
the Islamic regime of Iran,” said Conservative MP Matthew Offord. “I want to see
the termination of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in its entirety. I
want to see the invoking of the snapback sanction mechanisms under UN Security
Council resolution 2231. I want to see a closure of all Iranian-funded Islamic
centers across the United Kingdom. I want to see the recalling of the British
ambassador from Iran. I want to see the expelling of the Iranian ambassador and
all diplomats from the United Kingdom.” Iran on Saturday hanged two men for
allegedly killing a member of the regime’s security forces during the ongoing
protests following the death of Mahsa Amini in regime custody September. Those
executions bring the total to four people who are known to have been murdered in
connection with the mass protests roiling the nation. Iran Human Rights, a
Norway-based NGO, records at least 109 protesters at risk of execution.In
response to Saturday’s hangings, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen
announced on Tuesday that he and the FM of France were preparing a new round of
sanctions against Iran. “Additional European sanctions are needed against those
responsible for the gross violations of human rights in Iran,” Rasmussen said.
Britain Considering Declaring IRGC a Terrorist Organization
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 13 January, 2023
Britain is actively considering proscribing Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) as
a terrorist organization but has not reached a final decision on the matter,
foreign office minister Leo Docherty told parliament on Thursday. “It would be
wrong of me to speculate … about the outcome of the government’s current
consideration of this issue, which is active,” Docherty said during a debate on
the situation in Iran, during which some lawmakers had called for proscription.
“But I can say that I think the calls right across the house, and the
unity with which these calls are being made on all sides will be noted by the
government and this is something that we regard as extremely serious,” Reuters
quoted him as saying. Proscribing Iran’s Revolutionary
Guard as a terrorist group would mean that it would become a criminal offence in
Britain to belong to the group, attend its meetings, and carry its logo in
public.
The IRGC is already subject to British sanctions. The
announcement to blacklist the group is expected to be made within weeks. On
Tuesday, France's foreign ministry said it had not ruled out the idea that the
European Union designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, a day after
Germany said the move would be politically important and make sense. Ties
between European capitals and Tehran have deteriorated in recent months as
efforts to revive nuclear talks have stalled. With the EU discussing a fourth
round of sanctions over the crackdown of Iran on protesters and its supply of
weapons to Russia, some member states have called for the bloc to classify the
IRGC as a terrorist organization. When asked whether Paris supported designating
the IRGC, foreign ministry spokesperson Anne-Claire Legendre told reporters in a
daily briefing Tuesday that “given the continuation of this repression, France
is working with its European partners on new sanctions’ measures, without
excluding any.”Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Monday said that
a new round of sanctions would not be enough. “Listing the Revolutionary Guard
as a terrorist organization is politically important and makes sense,” she said
on Twitter, adding that legal hurdles still needed to cleared before it could be
done.
Iranian Filmmaker Temporarily Released
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 13 January, 2023
Award-winning Iranian filmmaker Mohammad Rasoulof, jailed half a year ago over
protests related to a building collapse, has been released for two weeks because
of health concerns, his lawyer said Wednesday.
Rasoulof, 50, was arrested on July 8 after being accused of encouraging
demonstrations that erupted after the deadly collapse of a building in May in
the southwestern city of Abadan. After the tragedy, a
group of Iranian filmmakers led by Rasoulof published an open letter decrying
"corruption, theft, inefficiency and repression" and urging the security forces
to "lay down their arms"."My client's incarceration has been suspended for two
weeks for health reasons," the director's lawyer Maryam Kianersi told AFP,
adding that he had been "released on Saturday". The lawyer added that her client
"is now discharged from hospital and is recovering at home". The release comes
as Iran has been gripped by nearly four months of protests triggered by the
death in custody of 22-year-old Iranian Kurd Mahsa Amini following her arrest
for allegedly violating Iran's strict dress code for women. Iranian authorities
say hundreds of people, including members of the security forces, have been
killed and thousands arrested during the protests which they mostly describe as
"riots". Rasoulof won the Golden Bear at the 2020 Berlin International Film
Festival with his anti-death penalty film "There Is No Evil" but was unable to
accept the award in person as he was barred from leaving Iran. His passport had
been confiscated after his 2017 film "A Man of Integrity" premiered at Cannes,
where it won the top prize in the Un Certain Regard section of the festival. On
July 11, authorities arrested the internationally renowned dissident filmmaker
Jafar Panahi upon his arrival at the Tehran prosecutor's office to follow up on
Rasoulof's case.
Former NATO commander says Putin is
'scrambling' for manpower in Ukraine and 'will take anything' at this point
John Haltiwanger/Business Insider/January 13, 2023
A former NATO commander said Putin is "scrambling" for manpower in Ukraine.
"Putin will take anything. It's a sign of how difficult this fight has become
for him," he said. Russia has relied on mercenaries and prisoners to bolster its
ranks amid heavy losses in Ukraine. Nearly 11 months
after ordering an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir
Putin is "scrambling" for manpower to continue the fight, Former NATO Supreme
Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis told MSNBC on Friday.
"Putin is really scrambling to gain the manpower," Stavridis said, adding
that the Russian leader is looking everywhere from prisons to homeless shelters
for more personnel and even recruiting men in their 50s and 60s. "Putin will
take anything. It's a sign of how difficult this fight has become for him," the
former NATO commander said. It's estimated that Russia
has suffered around 100,000 casualties in Ukraine, a bewildering figure in less
than a year of fighting. Putin in September declared a
partial military mobilization as part of an effort to address Russia's manpower
problems, calling up roughly 300,000 reservists. The mobilization faced public
backlash and saw tens of thousands of Russian men flee the country. Russians
called up as a result of the mobilization have been sent to the front poorly
equipped and with little training. Meanwhile, Russia
has also sought to bolster its ranks via the help of mercenaries from the
notorious Wagner Group, which has also recruited prisoners to fight on the
frontline. Fighters from the Wagner Group now comprise roughly 10% of Russia's
ground forces in Ukraine, according to UK officials, per BBC News.
A US official earlier this week told reporters that Russia was using
prisoners to absorb heavy Ukrainian fire and pave the way for "better trained
forces." The official said Russia was "trading individuals for bullets."Russia
on Friday claimed its forces had seized Soledar, a town in Ukraine's eastern
Donetsk region, which would mark the first Russian victory in months. Ukraine
pushed back on that assertion though, saying fighting was ongoing.
Stavridis said that taking Soledar will give Russian forces a small
morale boost but tactically is not a "terribly significant" development in the
war. Soledar is not far from Bakhmut, a city of approximately 70,000 that Russia
has vied to conquer for months. The Institute for the
Study of War (ISW), a Washington DC-based think tank that's closely tracked the
war in Ukraine, in an assessment on Thursday said that the likely capture of
Soledar was "not an operationally significant development" and would be unlikely
to lead to "an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut."
"Russian information operations have overexaggerated the importance of
Soledar, which is at best a Russian Pyrrhic tactical victory," ISW said. This
week, Russia announced that Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General
Staff, was taking over as commander of Russia's forces in Ukraine – just three
months after his predecessor got the job. Analysts said that the move was likely
a sign that serious offensives are on the horizon but also likely politically
motivated and designed to silence critics amid Russia's mounting military
failures in Ukraine.
Russia Says it Has Taken Control of Ukraine’s Soledar
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 13 January, 2023
Russia said on Friday that its forces had taken control of the salt-mining town
of Soledar in eastern Ukraine, claiming to have made its first big battlefield
gain after half a year of military setbacks. Russian
forces captured the town, long the focus of heavy fighting and bombardment, on
Thursday evening, the defense ministry said. It said this would make it possible
to cut off Ukrainian supply routes to the larger town of Bakhmut, to the
southwest, and trap remaining Ukrainian forces there. Reuters was not able to
immediately verify Russia's claim, which came after days of silence from the
ministry about the fate of the town. The head of Russian mercenary group Wagner
had said on Wednesday that his forces had achieved the complete "liberation" of
the mining town of Soledar, a claim denied by Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskiy who said fighting continued. "The capture of Soledar was made possible
by the constant bombardment of the enemy by assault and army aviation, missile
forces and artillery of a grouping of Russian forces," Moscow's defense ministry
said. Ukraine said earlier on Friday that its forces were still holding out in
Soledar after a "hot" night of fighting, in what has become one of the bloodiest
battlefields of the entire war. Both sides have endured heavy losses in the
battle for the small town. Moscow has been seeking its first major victory after
half a year of humiliating retreats. Kyiv says Russia is throwing wave upon wave
of soldiers into a pointless fight for a bombed-out wasteland. US officials said
a Russian victory in Soledar, or even in Bakhmut, a city ten times larger where
the Russians have so far been repelled, would mean little for the overall
trajectory of the war. "Even if both Bakhmut and Soledar fall to the Russians,
it's not going to have a strategic impact on the war itself," US National
Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters at the White House, "and it
certainly isn't going to stop the Ukrainians or slow them down."
Russia says it took Soledar, Ukraine denies
its capture
AP/January 13, 2023
KYIV, Ukraine: Russia claimed Friday that its forces captured a fiercely
contested salt mining town, in what would mark a rare victory for the Kremlin
after a series of setbacks in its invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities
said the fight for Soledar continued. There have
repeatedly been conflicting reports over who controls the town, the site of a
monthslong bloody battle in the grinding fight for Ukraine’s eastern regions.
The Associated Press could not independently confirm either side’s claim.
Soledar is located in Ukraine’s Donetsk province, one of four that Moscow
illegally annexed in September. From the outset, Moscow identified Donetsk and
neighboring Luhansk province as priorities, and in September declared them part
of Russia along with two other regions. “The
liberation of the town of Soledar was completed in the evening of Jan. 12,” Lt.
Gen. Igor Konashenkov, the Russian Defense Ministry’s spokesman, said, adding
that the development was “important for the continuation of offensive operations
in the Donetsk region.”Taking control of the town would allow Russian forces “to
cut supply lines for the Ukrainian forces” in Bakhmut and then “block and
encircle the Ukrainian units there,” Konashenkov said.
But Serhii Cherevaty, a spokesman for the Ukrainian army in the east, denied the
Russian Defense Ministry’s claim in remarks carried by RBK Ukraine news outlet,
saying that “fighting is ongoing in the city.” The
Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington, observed that the
fall of Soledar wouldn’t mark “an operationally significant development and is
unlikely to presage an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut.”The institute
said that Russian information operations have “overexaggerated the importance of
Soledar,” a small settlement, arguing as well that the long and difficult battle
has contributed to the exhaustion of Russian forces.
Just hours before Russia’s claim, Ukraine reported that there had been a heavy
night of fighting but did not acknowledge loss of the town.
In a Telegram post early Friday, Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hanna
Maliar, said that Moscow “had sent almost all (its) main forces” to secure a
victory in the east. She said that Ukrainian fighters “are bravely trying to
hold the defense.”
“This is a difficult stage of the war, but we will win. There is no doubt,”
Maliar added.
Russia's defense manufacturing sector is using
convict labor to meet war-time demands: UK intel
Mia Jankowicz/Business Insider/January 13, 2023
Russia announced it's using the forced labor of convicts to manufacture
weaponry. Russia has burned through much of its initial supply of tanks and
ammunition, per Western estimates. The UK MOD said that manufacturers are likely
under intense pressure to keep the army supplied. A British defense intelligence
assessment says that Russia is "highly likely" using prison labor in its defense
manufacturing as it struggles to keep up with the demands of the war.
"The prison population provides a unique human resource to Russian
leaders to utilize in support of the 'special military operation' while willing
volunteers remain in short supply," the UK's Ministry of Defence wrote in an
intelligence update on Friday, using Russia's euphemism for its invasion of
Ukraine. The UK MOD pointed to reports from late
November in which Uralvagonzavod, Russia's sole tank manufacturer, announced it
would use the forced labor of 250 convicts from Nizhny Tagil, a remote town 75
miles north of Yekaterinburg. Russia, which reintroduced forced prison labor in
2017, has a prison population of around 400,000, as well as a system accused of
perpetuating "extreme brutality and corruption," the UK MOD said.
Despite its vast initial supply of tanks — the International Institute for
Strategic Studies estimated it had 12,800 as of April last year — Russia appears
to have suffered losses faster than it can replace them.
In November, US officials estimated that Russia had lost half of its main
battle tanks since the start of the war. Open-source documentation project Oryx
has counted 1621 tanks destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured. Meanwhile, the
Uralvagonzavod factory is capable of manufacturing or upgrading around 20-30
tanks a month, according to the Kyiv Post. It is likely under "intense pressure"
to produce more, the UK MOD said. The UK MOD report
follows several signals that Russia, like Ukraine, is grappling with
difficulties in keeping its front line supplied with a wide range of munitions.
In September, as international sanctions bit, US intelligence officials said
that Russia had turned to North Korea for the supply of millions of artillery
shells and rockets, The New York Times reported.
Estonia's intelligence chief Colonel Margo Grosberg told a press conference in
November last year that Russia had used up almost two thirds of its ammunition,
according to Estonian state broadcaster ERR. And by December, a senior US
military official said that Russia had resorted to firing 40-year-old artillery
shells from its dwindling stockpile, CNN reported. While Ukrainian and US
estimates differ, both countries have said that the daily rate of artillery fire
from Russia has dropped dramatically in recent months — suggesting that Russia
is rationing its ammo, CNN reported. Ukraine is also finding spent Russian
missiles that were clearly manufactured in 2022, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense
representative Vadym Skibitskyi told Ukrainian broadcaster RBC earlier this
month. This suggests that Russian missiles are going straight from the
production line to the front lines, he said.
Western Tanks Appear Headed to Ukraine, Breaking Another
Taboo
Lara Jakes and Steven Erlanger/The New York Times/Fri, January 13, 2023
Western officials increasingly fear that Ukraine has only a narrow window to
prepare to repel an anticipated Russian springtime offensive, and are moving
fast to give the Ukrainians sophisticated weapons they had earlier refused to
send for fear of provoking Moscow.
Over the past few weeks, one barrier after another has fallen, starting with an
agreement by the United States in late December to send a Patriot air defense
system. That was followed by a German commitment last week to provide a Patriot
missile battery, and in the span of hours, France, Germany and the United States
each promised to send armored fighting vehicles to Ukraine’s battlefields for
the first time. Now it looks likely that modern Western tanks will be added to
the growing list of powerful weapons being sent Ukraine’s way, as the United
States and its allies take on more risk to defend Ukraine — especially as its
military has made unexpected advances and held out against withering
assaults.While Ukraine has been requesting sophisticated tanks since the start
of the war, the push to satisfy those pleas gained speed this week as the
British and Polish governments publicly urged a change in the Western alliance’s
stance. The British signaled that they were close to agreeing to send a small
number of tanks, and the Polish government said it would happily send some of
its German-made tanks, although Berlin would need to allow it.
Ukraine hopes that the increased pressure will persuade Germany’s Chancellor
Olaf Scholz to authorize the export to Ukraine of German-made tanks in the
arsenals of other NATO allies. The tanks, called the Leopard 2s, are among the
most coveted by Kyiv, and experts say that in significant numbers, they would
substantially increase Ukraine’s ability to drive back Russian forces.“Somebody
always has to set an example,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told
Polish state-run broadcaster TVP Info on Thursday. A German defense ministry
spokesperson said no decision had been made by the government of Scholz, a
Social Democrat. But his coalition partners, the Greens and Free Democrats,
support sending the tanks, and on Thursday, a senior minister amped up the
pressure.
“There is a difference between making a decision for yourself and preventing
others from making a decision,” Germany’s economics minister and vice
chancellor, Robert Habeck of the Greens, said in Berlin. Tanks, designed more
than a century ago to break through trench warfare, are a combination of
firepower, mobility and shock effect. Armed with large cannons, moving on metal
treads and built with stronger protective armor than any other weapon on a
battlefield, tanks can go over rough, muddy or sandy terrain where wheeled
fighting vehicles might struggle.
In Ukraine, officials say armored vehicles will play a key role in battles for
control of the fiercely contested towns and cities in the eastern provinces that
border Russia. Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny,
has said Ukraine needs some 300 Western tanks and about 600 Western armored
fighting vehicles to make a difference.
The sense of urgency over sending more powerful weapons partly reflects the grim
standoff on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, where for months the Russians
have tried to seize the city of Bakhmut and the surrounding area, suffering
heavy casualties but gaining little ground. In the past week, the fighting has
been especially brutal in the nearby town of Soledar, going block to block and
house to house, with conflicting claims about control of the town.
NATO allies that were once part of the Soviet sphere have given their Soviet-era
tanks to Ukraine. But much of Kyiv’s fleet has been destroyed or worn down by
months of battle, and it is running low on ammunition, which is incompatible
with Western munitions.
Since the war began nearly a year ago, the West has resisted giving some of its
most potent weapons to Ukraine, fearing that would bring NATO into direct
conflict with Russia. But seeing Ukraine’s determination to resist, little
prospect of peace talks anytime soon, and a stalemate on the battlefield, NATO
allies are relenting. The Patriots they recently
agreed to are the most advanced American-made air defense system and will help
protect Kyiv and other densely populated areas from Russian strikes that have
crippled Ukraine’s electricity grid. The armored fighting vehicles approved last
week are lighter and easier to maneuver on the battlefield than tanks and can
carry more troops, but are not as powerful.
There are still some weapons not being considered, including fighter jets and
longer-range missiles that could hit occupied Crimea and Russia itself. The
Biden administration, leading the coalition of allies supplying Ukraine with
weapons, is holding back American-made M1 Abrams tanks, which require constant
upkeep and special fuel, and which officials say are too scarce to spare.
But U.S. officials maintain they have never stood in the way of Germany
or any other nation sending Western tanks to Ukraine. There are an estimated
2,000 German-made Leopard tanks in more than a dozen militaries across Europe.
Some could be shipped quickly to Ukraine if Berlin approved, although Ukrainian
crews would have to be trained to use them. A senior
Western military official said this week that altering the balance of forces in
eastern Ukraine is needed to break the stalemate in the war, and that sending in
enough modern Western battle tanks and other combat vehicles could help to tip
that balance. Without tanks, a powerful component of ground warfare, it is
unlikely that Ukraine will be able to win back significant amounts of territory,
the official said.
At the Pentagon, Laura K. Cooper, a deputy assistant secretary of defense, said
last week at a briefing that “we absolutely agree that Ukraine does need
tanks.”“This is the right time for Ukraine to take advantage of its
capabilities, to change the dynamic on the battlefield,” Cooper said.
Ukraine is set on pushing forward with its own military offensive, either in the
depth of winter or after the muddy spring season. Russia, too, is telegraphing a
spring offensive, said a senior Western intelligence official, and Ukraine
“doesn’t want them to catch their breath” between now and when that intensified
round of combat begins.
Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations,
who stepped down as NATO’s assistant secretary-general for defense investment
late last year, noted that Moscow appears to be mobilizing hundreds of thousands
of new conscripts for its offensive. That, in part, pushed forward the debate
about tanks, he said, “to enable the Ukrainian forces to achieve significant
progress now.” Part of the discussion, Grand said,
focused on whether the tanks would give Ukrainian forces “some sort of a
decisive victory that would force peace on the Russians, or at least to achieve
such significant progress that any negotiated settlement would be more on their
terms than on Russian terms.”The issue of whether to allow Leopards to be sent o
Ukraine is likely to come to a head at a Jan. 20 meeting of senior defense and
military officials from dozens of nations, including NATO states, at Ramstein
Air Base in Germany.
Britain has so far said it is considering sending as few as 10 Challenger 2
tanks to Ukraine. Britain has about 227 Challengers, which have maintenance
issues, and it would be hard-pressed to replenish its stocks. Part of the
internal debate among British officials is political, a senior European diplomat
said. Rishi Sunak, the new prime minister, wants to take some leadership in the
war, and Britain and Poland appear to be acting in concert to put pressure on
Germany. In a closed-door session of his National Security Council on Tuesday,
Sunak outlined a strategy to increase support for Ukraine, likely beginning with
the tanks, to give Kyiv an edge before any possible peace negotiations,
according to another senior European official.
But Washington’s explicit approval would be vital to pushing Scholz to authorize
the Leopards, as it was crucial to the decision to send the German-made fighting
vehicles known as Marders, said Claudia Major, a defense analyst with the German
Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.
“Pressure on the Leopards is rising from the Poles, the British and the Finns,
but it’s about one particular partner, the United States, which is more equal
than the others,” she said. “With the Ramstein meeting coming, I expect it to
happen soon.”
A senior Biden administration official said Washington had not prodded Berlin to
send the tanks to Ukraine, and that the German government would make its own
decisions about its level of military support. Speaking on the condition of
anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue more candidly, he described the
discussions between Washington and Berlin as “very active” and said the Germans,
“like us, have evolved their willingness to provide capabilities as the fight
has changed over time.” The United States has not told allies to refrain from
giving Western tanks to Ukraine, the official said.
The Germans regard such a stance as a cop-out, according to Major, reflecting
Washington’s own unwillingness to send any Abrams tanks to Ukraine. She has said
that just one Abrams from Washington would be enough to free Scholz to act.
For now, supporters of sending tanks are focused on getting some country to make
the first move. Norbert Röttgen, an opposition German
legislator and foreign-policy expert, predicted that Scholz would give in on the
Leopards under pressure from allies, as he did earlier with German-made
howitzers and tracked armored infantry fighting vehicles.
Scholz and his party “want to keep a relationship with Russia and with
Putin for the future,” and Scholz “thinks that if he gives Ukraine the best
Germany has, Russia will perceive this as breaking a special relationship,”
Röttgen said. “But pressure from allies is becoming too strong.”
© 2023 The New York Times Company
Russian oil shipped to Asia in Chinese supertankers amid
ship shortage
Nidhi Verma and Chen Aizhu/NEW DELHI/SINGAPORE (Reuters)/Fri, January 13, 2023
At least four Chinese-owned supertankers are shipping Russian Urals crude to
China, according to trading sources and tracking data, as Moscow seeks vessels
for exports after a G7 oil price cap restricted the use of Western cargo
services and insurance. China, the world's top oil importer, has continued
buying Russian oil despite Western sanctions, after Russian President Vladimir
Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping launched what they called a no-limit
partnership before the war in Ukraine. The sources
said a fifth supertanker, or very large crude carrier (VLCC), was shipping crude
to India, which like China has continued buying Russian oil sold at a discount
as many Western buyers turn to other suppliers. All five shipments were
scheduled between Dec. 22 and Jan. 23, according to the sources and Eikon ship
tracking data.The G7 price cap introduced in December allows countries outside
the European Union to import seaborne Russian oil but it prohibits shipping,
insurance and re-insurance companies from handling Russian crude cargoes unless
sold for below the $60 cap. "With Urals prices well
below the price cap, the business of buying and trading Urals is essentially
legitimate," said an executive with a Chinese firm involved in the shipments.
As the United States and its allies tried to choke off Moscow's energy
revenues to limit its ability to fund the Ukraine war, Russia quickly diverted
oil exports from Europe last year, mainly to Asia. The
longer voyages, heavy discounts and record-high freight rates ate into profits
but the use of supertankers on the Asian routes may now cut shipping costs. The
Russian energy and transport ministries declined to comment. China's Foreign
Ministry did not respond to a request for comment, although Beijing has
previously called the Western sanctions on Russia illegal. Indian Oil Minister
Hardeep Singh Puri said at a press briefing on Thursday that India would buy oil
from wherever it could secure the cheapest price. Industry sources say Indian
refiners are securing a discount of $15-$20 per barrel on Russian oil on a
delivered basis compared to Brent.
RUSSIA TURNS TO ASIA
Russia is sending Urals from its Western ports for transhipment to supertankers
Lauren II, Monica S, Catalina 7 and Natalina 7, all Panama-flagged ships bound
for China, while the Sao Paulo is already approaching India, according to three
trading sources and Eikon data.
Based on Eikon data and public maritime databases, Lauren II is managed by
China's Greetee Co Ltd and owned by China's Maisie Ltd, Catalina 7 is owned by
Hong Kong's Canes Venatici Ltd and Natalina 7 by Hong Kong's Astrid Menks Ltd
with both managed by China's Runne Co Ltd, while Monica S is owned by China's
Gabrielle Ltd and managed by Derecttor Co Ltd. The Sao Paulo is owned and
managed by Cyprus-based Rotimo Holdings Ltd. Reuters
was unable to immediately contact the owners and managers because of a lack of
public information about them. The executive with the
Chinese firm involved in the shipments estimated a total of 18 Chinese
supertankers and another 16 Aframax-sized vessels could be used for shipping
Russian crude in 2023, enough to transport 15 million tonnes a year or about 10%
of total Urals exports. A VLCC can carry up to 2 million barrels, a Suezmax
vessel up to 1 million barrels and Aframax up to 0.6 million barrels.
While most Russian crude is now heading to China, India and Turkey in
Russian or non-western ships, G7 sanctions have led to a shortage of smaller
ice-class tankers - many belonging to Greek and Norwegian companies - needed by
Russia to transport its crude from Baltic Sea ports in winter. Russia and China
do not have a large fleet of ice-class vessels and using Chinese VLCCs frees
them up to travel from Baltic ports to conduct ship-to-ship transfers to bigger
tankers in international waters, according to traders. This practice showed up
in Eikon tracking data, including in Mediterranean international waters, with
the executive highlighting operations near Ceuta, a Spanish autonomous city on
the north coast of Africa, and Greece's Kalamata, a city in the Peloponnese
peninsula in southern Greece. "It's extremely expensive and doesn't make sense
to use ice-class tankers for long distances," one European market trader said,
explaining why VLCCs were being used. Another trader
said the Ukraine war and sanctions had pushed up demand for smaller tankers and
driven down rates for large vessels, helping reduce some of the extra costs
Russia faces.
Russia's top military brass and an infamous mercenary
leader are feuding over who gets credit for taking back a Ukrainian town
Grace Eliza Goodwin,Mia Jankowicz/Business Insider/January 13, 2023
Wagner Group's leader shared a post trashing Russia's claims about a rare
battlefield victory. Russia has relied on Wagner mercenaries to augment its
fighting force as thousands of troops have died in the war.
Russia claims it scored a rare victory in the war against Ukraine. But
credit for who actually did the fighting is up for grabs.
Infamous mercenary organization Wagner Group is feuding with the Russian
military over who should get the praise for seizing control of Soledar, a town
in eastern Ukraine. Russia's defense ministry said on Friday that its forces had
captured the salt-mining town, killing over 700 Ukrainian troops and destroying
more than 300 Ukrainian weapons systems over the past three days of battle,
according to state media. Russia did not make any
mention of Wagner, the paramilitary organization helping Russia fight in
Ukraine. Wagner's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin wasn't happy with the apparent snub.
Earlier this week, Prigozhin claimed in a statement that his troops had taken
control of Soledar, emphasizing that Russia's formal army had nothing to do with
it. And again on Friday, Prigozhin posted a Telegram statement that "Soledar was
taken solely by the efforts of the fighters of the Wagner PMC.""And there is no
need to offend the fighters by humiliating their merit," the statement shared by
Prigozhin added. "You are demotivating them. We must fight, and not compete in
whose dick is bigger and steal other people's merits."Even whether Soledar has
actually been seized in the first place is unclear. Reuters reported that a
spokesperson for Ukraine's eastern military denies that Soledar has fallen to
Russian forces. If confirmed, the seizure of Soledar would be Russia's biggest
advancement in the war since July, according to Reuters. Wager founder Prigozhin
has a history of beefing with the Russian army. He has previously backed up one
of his soldier's complaints about inadequate support and supplies from the
central army. While Prigozhin has denied this incident, his ongoing public
statements have left little doubt about the way he feels regarding the
traditional military establishment's progress in Ukraine.
US Envoy Visits Ramallah, Palestinians Demand ‘Urgent
Solution’
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 13 January, 2023
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh briefed the US envoy for
Palestinian and Israeli affairs, Hady Amr, on the violations and unilateral
measures taken by the new extremist Israeli government against the Palestinians.
Amr also met in Ramallah with PLO Secretary-General Hussein al-Sheikh, who said
he stressed the need for a political solution that preserves the two-state
solution in line with international legitimacy. Sheikh warned of the Israeli
government’s “unilateral measures and daily attacks which destroy the efforts
towards a two-state solution and harm security and stability.”
“The US administration is required to move urgently to put an end to the
unilateral Israeli measures and threats that undermine the Palestinian Authority
and systematically end the possibility of establishing a Palestinian state,”
Shtayyeh told the US envoy on Thursday in Ramallah. He stressed that the
upcoming visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and National Security
Adviser Jake Sullivan to the region should carry a message of hope for the
Palestinian people and a clear message to the Israeli government that it should
stop the violations and unilateral measures and oblige it to respect
international law and signed agreements. The meetings of Shtayyeh and al-Sheikh
with Amr coincide with a wave of Palestinian anger over the Israeli sanctions
imposed on the Palestinian Authority. US State Department spokesman Ned Price on
Monday condemned the sanctions approved by the Israeli government.
Price referred to the sanctions as a “unilateral response” that will “exacerbate
tensions”. “This is part of the reason why we’ve opposed the Palestinian move
when it comes to the ICJ, knowing that it would potentially only serve to
increase tensions,” Price said in response to a question during the daily press
briefing. “We believe the Palestinian effort at the UN was counterproductive,
only taking the parties further away from the objective of a negotiated
two-state solution.”Moreover, Likud MK Yuli Edelstein told US Ambassador to
Israel Tom Nides on Wednesday that the new Israeli government plans to expand
settlements in the West Bank, despite the Biden administration’s objections.
“I expressed to the ambassador my clear position regarding the need for
construction in the areas of [Jewish] settlement in Judea and Samaria,” Foreign
Affairs and Defense Committee Chair Edelstein said.
Edelstein added: “I lived for 28 years in Gush Etzion. I know that life doesn't
stop; the families there are developing and it's impossible to put their lives
on hold. Construction should continue." Edelstein's
standpoint endorses the guiding principles of Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu’s new government stating that the Jewish people have “an exclusive and
inalienable right to all parts of the Land of Israel,” including the West Bank.
Likud signed coalition agreements pledging to expand Israeli settlements and
advance annexation of large parts of the West Bank. On Tuesday, Nides told the
Kan public broadcaster that Netanyahu understands the US stance in favor of
“keep[ing] a vision of a two-state solution alive” as well as its opposition to
“legalizing outposts and massive settlement expansion.”
Assad Meets Putin’s Envoy, Demands End to Turkish
‘Occupation’
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 13 January, 2023
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has tied reconciliation with Türkiye to its
ending of its "occupation" of Syrian territory and "sponsorship of terrorism."
Assad met with Russian Presidential Special Envoy for Syria, Alexander
Lavrentiev in Damascus on Thursday amid reports that a meeting would be held
soon between the Syrian and Turkish foreign ministers . Such a meeting demands
coordination and planning between Syria and Russia so that Syria’s desired goals
can be reached, said Assad. These goals must be based on national state and the
people’s principles that are based on ending the Turkish occupation and support
for terrorism, he added, according to a Syrian presidency statement. Turkish
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday that he could meet his Syrian
counterpart Faisal Mikdad early in February, rejecting reports that the two
could meet next week.
Such a meeting would mark the highest-level talks between Ankara and Damascus
since the Syrian war began in 2011 and signal a further thaw in ties. NATO
member Türkiye has played a major part in the conflict, backing Assad's
opponents and sending troops into the north. Moscow is Assad's main ally and
Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged reconciliation with Ankara. Speaking
on a live broadcast, Cavusoglu said there was no set date for the meeting but it
would held "as soon as possible." A senior Turkish official told Reuters on
Wednesday a meeting could be scheduled before the middle of next week, but
Cavusoglu said it would not happen that soon. "We have said before that there
were some propositions for a date for next week but that they did not suit us
... It could be at the beginning of February, we are working on a date," he
said. The Turkish and Syrian defense ministers held landmark talks in Moscow
last month to discuss border security and other issues. Last week, Turkish
President Tayyip Erdogan said he may meet Assad after a trilateral foreign
ministers meeting. The conflict in Syria, which has killed hundreds of thousands
of people, displaced millions and drawn in regional and world powers, has ground
on into a second decade, although fighting has cooled. With
backing from Russia and Iran, Assad's government has recovered most Syrian
territory. Turkish-backed opposition fighters still control a pocket in the
northwest, and Kurdish fighters backed by the United States also control
territory near the Turkish border. Washington does not support countries
re-establishing ties with Assad. It has partnered with the Kurdish-led Syrian
Democratic Forces, which includes the People’s Protection Units (YPG), in
fighting the ISIS group in Syria.
Israel's outgoing army chief rebukes far-right
government
JERUSALEM (AP)/Fri, January 13, 2023
Israel's outgoing army chief on Friday warned against plans by Benjamin
Netanyahu’s new coalition to grant more control to pro-settler lawmakers and
make other changes to the Israeli security establishment, joining a loud chorus
of criticism against the most right-wing government in the country's history.
In several interviews with Israeli news outlets just days before he steps down,
Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi took unusually sharp aim at Netanyahu's coalition
agreements with hard-line Jewish settler activists who seek to entrench Israeli
rule in the occupied West Bank, restructure the Defense Ministry and control a
special paramilitary police unit. "This is likely to
cause damage and adversely affect our preparedness for war,” Kochavi told the
Israeli news site Ynet.
While the coalition deals have sparked furor from many segments of Israeli
society, Kochavi's worries have deep significance. Among Jewish Israelis, the
military is considered an emblem of stability and one of the country’s most
trusted institutions.
Kochavi expressed particular concern about the coalition's plans to create three
separate sources of authority in the West Bank. Netanyahu gave his right-wing
finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, control over an Israeli military body that
regulates planning for Israeli settlements and Palestinian construction in parts
of the West Bank where Israel maintains civilian control. Smotrich is an
advocate of the outright annexation of parts of the West Bank that the
Palestinians want for their hoped-for independent state. “There cannot be two
commanding authorities (in the West Bank),” Kochavi said. “The separation
between us is not good and may cause damage and lead to a worse situation for
all populations.”Israel captured the West Bank in 1967 along with the Gaza Strip
and east Jerusalem — territory the Palestinians seek for a future state. Israel
has constructed dozens of Jewish settlements home to around 500,000 Israelis who
live alongside around 2.5 million Palestinians. Most of the international
community considers Israel’s West Bank settlements illegal and an obstacle to
peace with the Palestinians. Another move that Kochavi
fears could undermine the army’s chain of command in the West Bank stems from
Netanyahu's agreement with Itamar Ben-Gvir, a right-wing lawmaker whose his
views were so extreme that the army banned him from compulsory military service.
As national security minister, Ben-Gvir now oversees the paramilitary
border police, which, until now, has worked under the Israeli military in the
occupied West Bank. "The work that the border police is doing in Judea and
Samaria is excellent and I hope that the situation remains just as it is today.
The chain of authority must be maintained,” Kochavi said, referring to the West
Bank by its biblical name.
In other interviews, Kochavi said he called Netanyahu twice to warn him about
the far-reaching consequences of the coalition's moves for the cohesion of the
defense establishment. Netanyahu has sought to assure the public — as well as
the U.S. and Israel's European and Arab allies — that he has veto power over any
changes that the far-right ministers make. But critics say he has so far failed
to restrain his coalition partners. After serving nearly four years as chief of
staff, Kochavi is set to hand over the reins to Maj. Gen. Herzi Halevi next
week.
Nighttime Israeli Arrests Haunt Palestinian Kids, Families
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 13 January, 2023
Yousef Mesheh was sleeping in his bunk bed when Israeli forces stormed into his
home at 3 a.m. Within moments, the 15-year-old Palestinian said he was lying on
the floor as troops punched him, shouting insults. A soldier struck his mother’s
chest with his rifle butt and locked her in the bedroom, where she screamed for
her sons. Yousef and his 16-year-old brother, Wael,
were hauled out of their home in Balata refugee camp in the northern West Bank.
Yousef was in a sleeveless undershirt and couldn’t see without his glasses.
“I can’t forget that night,” Yousef told The Associated Press from his
living room, decorated with photos of Wael, who remains in detention. “When I go
to sleep I still hear the shooting and screaming.” The
Israeli military arrested and interrogated hundreds of Palestinian teenagers in
2022 in the occupied West Bank, without ever issuing a summons or notifying
their families, according to an upcoming report by the Israeli human rights
organization HaMoked. The charges against those being
arrested ranged from being in Israel without a permit to throwing stones or
Molotov cocktails. Some teens say they were arrested to obtain information about
neighbors or family members. In the vast majority of the military's pre-planned
arrests of minors last year, children were taken from their homes in the dead of
the night, HaMoked said. After being yanked out of bed, children as young as 14
were interrogated while sleep-deprived and disoriented. Water, food and access
to toilets were often withheld. Yousef said soldiers beat him when he asked to
relieve himself during his seven-hour journey to the detention center. The
Israeli army argues it has the legal authority to arrest minors at its
discretion during late-night raids. Lawyers and
advocates say the tactic runs counter to Israel’s legal promises to alert
parents about their children’s alleged offenses.
“We started demanding that the night arrests of children be the last resort,”
said Jessica Montell, director of HaMoked.
The rights group said there had been some improvement two years ago when the
Israeli government, in response to a Supreme Court petition by HaMoked, asked
that the military call on parents to bring their children for interrogation. But
according to figures reported to the Supreme Court, the army summoned
Palestinian parents to question their children only a handful of times. Last
year, not a single family received a summons in nearly 300 cases HaMoked tracked
in the West Bank. Petty offenses and cases where children were released without
charge — as happened to Yousef — were no exception. HaMoked said the numbers are
incomplete because it believes scores of similar cases are never reported. “They
are not implementing the procedure they created themselves,” said Ayed Abu
Eqtaish, accountability program director for Defense for Children International
in the Palestinian territories. “It’s part of the philosophy of the
interrogation that children are terrified and exhausted.” In response to a
request for comment, the Israeli military said it tries to summon Palestinian
children suspected of minor offenses who have no history of serious criminal
convictions. But, the army argued, this policy does not apply to serious
offenses or “when a summons to an investigation would harm its purpose.” The
army would not comment on Yousef's arrest, but said his brother, Wael, faces
charges related to “serious financial crimes,” including “contacting the enemy,”
“illegally bringing in money” and helping “an illegal organization.” These
charges typically reflect cases of Palestinians communicating with people in the
Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. Although HaMoked found most cases were soon dropped, the
late-night arrests haunted children long after. Since his Nov. 7 arrest, Yousef
“is not like he was before,” said his mother, Hanadi Mesheh, who also recounted
her ordeal to the AP. He can’t focus in school. He no longer plays soccer. She
sleeps beside him some nights, holding him during his nightmares.
“I feel like I’m always being watched,” Yousef said. “I'm frightened when
my mother wakes me in the morning for school.”Similar stories abound in the
area. The northern city of Nablus emerged as a major flashpoint for violence
last year after Israel began a crackdown in the West Bank in response to a spate
of Palestinian attacks in Israel.
Last year Israeli forces killed at least 146 Palestinians, including 34
children, the Israeli rights group B'Tselem reported, making 2022 the deadliest
for Palestinians in the West Bank in 18 years. According to the Israeli army,
most of the Palestinians killed have been militants. But youths protesting the
incursions and others not involved in confrontations have also been killed.
Palestinian attacks, meanwhile, killed at least 31 Israelis last year. Israel
says the operations are meant to dismantle militant networks and thwart future
attacks. The Palestinians have decried the raids as collective punishment aimed
at cementing Israel’s open-ended 55-year-old occupation of lands they want for a
future state. Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war, along with
east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip. Nighttime arrest raids are not limited to the
West Bank. Israeli police also carry out regular raids in Palestinian
neighborhoods of east Jerusalem. Last fall in the
Jerusalem neighborhood of Beit Hanina, Rania Elias heard pounding on the door
before dawn. Her youngest son, 16-year-old Shadi Khoury, was sleeping in his
underwear. Israeli police burst into their home, shoved Khoury to the floor and
pummeled his face. Blood was everywhere, she said, as police dragged him to a
Jerusalem detention center for interrogation. “You can’t imagine what it’s like
to feel helpless to save your child,” Elias said. In
response to a request for comment, the Israeli police said they charged Khoury
with being part of a group that threw stones at a Jewish family's car on Oct.
12, wounding a passenger. Under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's new
ultra-nationalist government, parents say they fear for their children more than
ever. Some of the most powerful ministers are Israeli settlers who promise a
hard-line stance against the Palestinians. “This is the darkest moment,” said
activist Murad Shitawi, whose 17-year-old son Khaled was arrested last March in
a night raid on their home in the West Bank town of Kfar Qaddum. “I’m worried
for my sons."
Biden investigated over classified documents
Agence France Presse/January 13, 2023
The U.S. attorney general has named an independent prosecutor to investigate
President Joe Biden's handling of classified documents, after a furor over
secret papers found at his former office exploded with the discovery of a second
batch. The new find -- like the original, from Biden's time as vice president --
was uncovered in the garage of his home in Wilmington, Delaware, where he often
spends weekends, the White House said. Attorney General Merrick Garland
announced that Robert Hur, an appointee of Biden's predecessor Donald Trump,
would be empowered to examine whether the cache violated any law.
"Under the regulations, the extraordinary circumstances here require the
appointment of a special counsel," Garland, who runs the Justice Department,
said. The appointment came hours after the White House acknowledged the second
batch of papers but did not address their contents -- supercharging a scandal
over a first set found at a Washington think tank where Biden had an office.
Republicans in Congress, who have been accusing the White House of a
cover-up over the affair, swiftly announced their own inquiry to run
independently of the criminal probe. The disclosures have prompted comparisons
to the special counsel investigation of Trump's hoarding of hundreds of
classified materials at his Florida beachfront home and his alleged obstruction
of government efforts to get them back. "I take
classified documents and classified material seriously. We're cooperating fully
(and) completely with the Justice Department's review," Biden told reporters.
"As part of that process, my lawyers reviewed other places where documents from
my time as vice president were stored, and they finished the review last night."
The president said a "small number" of documents with classified markings had
been found in storage areas and his library and that the Justice Department was
notified immediately. Biden declined to take shouted questions from the press,
but a White House lawyer said later the documents had been "inadvertently
misplaced."Hur is a former assistant U.S. attorney who worked in the DOJ from
2007 until 2014 and returned to public service under Trump as the principal
associate deputy attorney general. He promised a swift investigation and pledged
to be "fair, impartial and dispassionate."
'Many questions' -
The first cache of Biden documents was discovered a week before last year's
midterm elections but only acknowledged by the White House on Monday, prompting
accusations from Republicans that it was kept secret for party political
reasons. James Comer, head of the powerful House oversight committee, said he
would be leading an investigation into the "mishandling of classified documents
and the Swamp's efforts to hide this information." "There are many questions
about why the Biden administration kept this matter a secret from the public,
who had access to the office and the residence, and what information is
contained in these classified documents," he said.
Trump, who is facing multiple criminal and civil probes, took to his Truth
Social platform to call for an immediate end to his investigation "because I did
everything right."Legal analysts have pointed to major differences between the
cases, particularly over the size of the huge hoard of documents Trump had
stored at his residence after leaving the White House in 2021. The FBI carted
away some 11,000 papers after serving a search warrant in August, and Trump
could face obstruction of justice charges after spending months resisting
efforts to recover his trove. The White House, in contrast, says it has been
cooperating with the National Archives and the Department of Justice.
After the first batch of Biden documents was discovered at his former
office at the Penn Biden Center think tank last November, lawyers turned them
over to the National Archives, which handles all such materials, the White House
counsel's office said. Lawyers for Biden then scoured
possible locations for any other stray documents. Tempers flared during an
exchange between Biden's press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and reporters
seeking to know if she was aware of any discussions in the White House about
delaying public disclosure of the original discovery. Jean-Pierre refused to
answer, prompting a CBS News reporter to shoot back that Biden had pledged early
in his presidency to acknowledge and correct mistakes.
"We don't need to have this kind of confrontation. Ask your question and I will
answer them the best that I can," Jean-Pierre said.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
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on January 13-14/2023
Is There a Legal Remedy for George Santos' Lies?
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/January 13, 2023
Unless he has lied on government forms, it is unlikely that he can be
successfully prosecuted or civilly sued. His victims are primarily the voters
who cast ballots for a person who was very different from who they believed him
to be.
No congressman has ever been removed for defrauding voters, but if there were
ever a case for doing so, this would be it. The House would be reluctant to use
that nuclear option because it would subject many incumbents to scrutiny for
their electoral lies.
The dangers of punishing general falsehoods is demonstrated by the laws of other
countries. In Poland it is a crime to state that the Polish people participated
in the Holocaust, although that statement is absolutely true as a matter of
history. Polish people not only collaborated with Nazis, some continued to kill
Jews even after the Nazis left. The Polish parliament has declared the historic
truth to be a punishable lie.
In Turkey, it is a crime to say that the Armenian genocide occurred. In France
it is a crime to say that this very same event did not occur.
The alternative to freedom of speech is necessarily some form of censorship.
Throughout history censorship by governments, churches and other powerful
institutions has been the rule. It has not worked. Nor has untrammeled free
speech worked perfectly. But history has clearly demonstrated that censorship is
far more dangerous to liberty than is free speech.
"[W]e have nothing to fear from the demoralizing reasoning of some, if others
are left free to demonstrate their errors..." – Thomas Jefferson, July 3, 1801.
[A]s long as truth tellers are able to respond to liars, we have far more to
fear from censorship than from free speech.
Congressman George Santos (pictured) has lived a life of lies. He has lied about
his early life, his academic record, his business experience, his wealth, his
heritage, his personal life and his criminal record. He is fortunate that the
vast majority of these lies have not been under oath.
Congressman George Santos has lived a life of lies. He has lied about his early
life, his academic record, his business experience, his wealth, his heritage,
his personal life and his criminal record. He is fortunate that the vast
majority of these lies have not been under oath. Nor have they defamed specific
individuals. Unless he has lied on government forms, it is unlikely that he can
be successfully prosecuted or civilly sued. His victims are primarily the voters
who cast ballots for a person who was very different from who they believed him
to be.
No congressman has ever been removed for defrauding voters, but if there were
ever a case for doing so, this would be it. The House would be reluctant to use
that nuclear option because it would subject many incumbents to scrutiny for
their electoral lies.
It is possible therefore that George Santos will not be held legally accountable
for his lies, especially the most egregious ones which got him nominated and
elected to Congress.
Some will be surprised to learn that the First Amendment to the Constitution
protects most lies. It allows Anti-Semites to deny the Holocaust. It protects
sexists and racists mendaciously engaging in false and malicious hate speech. It
does not allow Congress to enact laws protecting the memory of soldiers who died
in defense of our country. It allows ignorant people to claim that the earth is
flat and that astronauts never landed on the moon.
Although lying when not under oath and when not attacking a specific individual
is not a crime in America, it is in other countries that punish the
falsification of history and hate speech directed at groups rather than
individuals. We have chosen a different way that is not without costs. Pervasive
falsity in the public arena is the price we pay for freedom of speech and the
marketplace of ideas.
The dangers of punishing general falsehoods is demonstrated by the laws of other
countries. In Poland it is a crime to state that the Polish people participated
in the Holocaust, although that statement is absolutely true as a matter of
history. Polish people not only collaborated with Nazis, some continued to kill
Jews even after the Nazis left. The Polish parliament has declared the historic
truth to be a punishable lie.
In Turkey, it is a crime to say that the Armenian genocide occurred. In France
it is a crime to say that this very same event did not occur.
It is for historians -- not judges or juries -- to determine the truth or
falsity of historic claims, just as it is the job of scientists to pass
judgement on the accuracy of scientific claims.
Over the past several years, there have been false claims about COVID, vaccines
and other medical issues. Lying about such matters can cause significant harm.
Significant harm can also be caused by false claims regarding elections. In
Brazil, such claims about the most recent election contributed to violence. In
our own country, false claims about the 2020 presidential election have
exacerbated divisions among our citizens.
Allowing George Santos to live his life of lies without legal accountability is
the heavy price we pay for denying the government the power to censor. What
Winston Churchill once said about democracy can be paraphrased to apply to
freedom of speech: the worst policy, "except for all the [others] that have been
tried from time to time."
The alternative to freedom of speech is necessarily some form of censorship.
Throughout history, censorship by governments, churches and other powerful
institutions has been the rule. It has not worked. Nor has untrammeled free
speech worked perfectly. But history has clearly demonstrated that censorship is
far more dangerous to liberty than is free speech. Thomas Jefferson may have
overstated it when he wrote the following in a letter 25 years after the
Declaration of Independence: "[W]e have nothing to fear from the demoralizing
reasoning of some, if others are left free to demonstrate their errors..." He
was surely correct, however, that as long as truth tellers are able to respond
to liars, we have far more to fear from censorship than from free speech. So let
us continue to condemn George Santos in the court of public opinion but let us
not criminalize his lies, unless they fall within narrow exceptions.
*Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus at
Harvard Law School, and the author most recently of The Price of Principle: Why
Integrity Is Worth The Consequences. He is the Jack Roth Charitable Foundation
Fellow at Gatestone Institute, and is also the host of "The Dershow" podcast.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Islamic State (ISIS) In 2022: Growing Threat Continuing
Into 2023
Y. Kerman/MEMRI/January 13/2023
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The Islamic State (ISIS) jihadi group, which grew out of Al-Qaeda in Iraq during
the first two decades of the 21st century and expanded into Syria following the
outbreak of the ongoing civil war there, has remained an international jihadi
militant organization despite the loss of its territory in Iraq and Syria.
By 2022, ISIS has declared 17 "provinces" throughout the Middle East, Asia, and
Africa, and has claimed attacks in other countries in those regions. In the
past, the organization had also masterminded attacks in Europe and the United
States.
Although ISIS claimed no attacks in Western countries during 2022, many people
linked to the organization were arrested for plotting attacks in those
countries. In addition, pro-ISIS media groups continue to produce material
inciting attacks in the West and threatening Western countries, while supporters
of the organization still disseminate archival material by official and
unofficial ISIS media encouraging "lone wolf" operations in those countries,
albeit on a smaller scale than in the years preceding ISIS' loss of territory in
Iraq and Syria. Supporters also celebrate news of shootings, stabbings, and
other attacks on Western non-Muslims, and express hope that the perpetrator will
be revealed to have acted on behalf of ISIS.
ISIS' operational tactics differ in these regions depending on factors such as
military capabilities, the power of the local government, and presence of
non-Sunni populations, although there are commonalities in its practices in all
countries where it operates as an anti-government insurgency.
On November 30, ISIS released a speech by its official spokesman, Abu 'Umar Al-Muhajir,
acknowledging the death of its leader, Abu Al-Hasan Al-Hashemi Al-Qurashi, and
announcing Abu Al-Husayn Al-Husayni Al-Qurashi as his successor. According to
reports by the United Staes Central Command (US CENTCOM) and the media, it
appears that the recently slain ISIS leader was an Iraqi named Nour Karim Al-Mutni
aka Sayf Baghdad [The Sword of Baghdad], and that he was killed in mid-October
in Jasem, in Syria's Daraa Governorate, fighting former rebels who had
reconciled with the Assad regime. In the message announcing a new ISIS caliph,
the organization's spokesman briefly mentioned the new leader's somewhat vague
goals of defending oppressed Muslims, implementing shari'a in all areas where
ISIS enjoys "empowerment," freeing imprisoned Muslims, and waging jihad against
the "'enemies of Allah."
The above photo, which was distributed in the Arab media, allegedly depicts Sayf
Baghdad, who appears to have been slain ISIS leader Abu Al-Hasan Al-Hashemi
Al-Qurashi.
During 2022, ISIS has claimed attacks in at least 23 countries. The Islamic
State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which operates in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad,
and eastern Niger; Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP), operating in
the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); Mozambique Province; Sahel Province,
operating in Mali, Burkina Faso, Benin, and western Niger; Libya province; and
Sinai province have all claimed attacks this year in Africa, the continent which
now experiences the most frequent and deadly attacks by ISIS affiliates. In
Asia, the ISIS provinces in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Pakistan, as well as the
Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), active in Afghanistan and western
Pakistan; India Province, active in Kashmir; and Islamic State East Asia
Province (ISEAP), active in the Philippines, have claimed attacks during 2022.
The above map shows ISIS provinces in red and other countries where ISIS has
claimed attacks in 2022 in blue.
ISIS has also claimed attacks in 2022 in Israel, Iran, Tajikistan, and
Uzbekistan, none of which ISIS recognizes as provinces. However, the
organization claimed no activity this year outside of Asia and Africa.
In general, it is possible to categorize countries where ISIS is active into:
regions where its local affiliate is rising in power.
regions where ISIS activity is steady.
regions where ISIS activity is in decline.
The ISIS affiliates in Africa, particularly ISWAP, as well as ISCAP and its
Mozambique and Sahel provinces, are growing more powerful and expanding their
activities.
ISIS veteran provinces in Syria and Iraq remain active, despite their level of
activity having declined from previous years.
The ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan remains significantly active, as does its
affiliate in Pakistan, albeit on a smaller scale. Other provinces, such as those
in Yemen, Libya, and the Philippines, have demonstrated relatively sparse
activity in 2022 compared to previous years.
The ISIS India province, operating in Kashmir, claims infrequent, small-scale
attacks, and has never been a formidable jihadi group. Likewise, the ISIS
affiliate in Somalia is relatively inactive, although with apparently more
operatives than the India Province.
There has recently been a marked decrease in the number of attacks claimed by
ISIS. Since the beginning of August 2022, the organization has claimed between
20 to 30 weekly attacks worldwide, much fewer than its weekly average in earlier
months. Since October 6, there has been no week in which ISIS claimed more than
30 total weekly attacks, and a low was reached during the weeks of October
28-November 3 and November 4-10, during which ISIS claimed only 15 and 14 total
attacks, respectively.
The following report is based on JTTM monitoring of official and unofficial
content released by ISIS and supporting entities in Arabic and other languages.
The Question that Khamenei Faces
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/January, 13/2023
These are tough days for the “Supreme Guide” of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei.
For the first time in more than three decades he seems unable to do a Houdini
number by getting out of a tight spot that events and his own mistakes have
placed him in.
For more than three decades, whenever his rule was seriously challenged, his
tactic was to go into purdah for a while letting things sort themselves out or,
if action were needed, let others to do the dirty work. And when it became clear
that things weren’t going to sort themselves out, he adopted the tactic he
called “heroic flexibility”, a political version of the Parson’s position in
reverse.
Over the years he did his Houdini number during a long power struggle with his
foe-cum-friend Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Rafsanjani, and “ended up winning. During the
contested presidential election that produced the so-called “Green Movement” he
let his security men kill protesters, impose house-arrest on some protest
leaders and crush the student uprising.
In foreign affairs, he let the so-called “Reformist” faction, first under Hojat
al-Islam Muhammad Khatami and then led by Hojat al-Islam Hassan Rouhani accept
every humiliation to get a deal with the US and deceive the Europeans into
regarding the Islamic Republic as a normal state while he whispered his
opposition to the deal made. If things turned out well, he would take the
credit; if not he would blame others.
All along he played both the ultimate decision-maker and the top critic of the
regime he headed. Frequently, he mused about “the problems from which our heroic
Islamic nation suffers”, blaming un-named officials for mounting failures across
the board.
All along, his model was North Korean leader Kim Il-sung whom he had met and
become an admirer during a state visit that seems to have reshaped his world
view.
In his memoirs, Ayatollah Nateq-Nuri, who had accompanied Khamenei during the
state visit to Pyongyang, relates how the future “Supreme Guide” “fell head and
heels for the North Korean ‘Great Helmsman’”.
The visit to Pyongyang was Khamenei’s the Road to Damascus moment. The lesson he
learned was simple: Let others idolize you and, if things turn badly, blame
those who idolize you. And, if you are in a position of weakness, just appear as
a nobody or play village idiot until the tide turns in your favor.
Over the decades every prominent religious and/or political figure in the
Islamic Republic was thrown into a mud-pool, subjected to vilification, put
under house arrest or sent to prison, silenced or forced into exile.
During the uprising against the Shah, Ayatollah Khomeini appointed a 14-man
“Islamic Revolution Council” as a provisional government and legislative
authority.
Four of those were assassinated and one was executed on Khomeini’s orders. Two
fled into exile while another two spent time in prison. One died in “suspicious
circumstances”. Three others served briefly in office but quickly faded into
oblivion. Only one, guess which one, survived and is still around: Khamenei.
Today, however, as the popular uprising for freedom continues, albeit with less
intensity than when it first began four months ago, the “Supreme Guide” finds it
hard to repeat his favorite number.
While he remained in purdah for weeks, his entourage tried every trick in the
book, from printing money to bribing security men, the military, and the civil
service to transferring ownership of public companies and banks to oligarchs,
passing by a quiet purge of the Revolutionary Guard and the changing of some
provincial governors. Killing over 500 protesters in the streets and executing
several more sentenced in kangaroo courts were also tried as part of a
nationwide repression that led to 18,000 arrests.
However, when Khamenei was forced to enter center stage last week, it was clear
that his usual tactics hadn’t worked.
The breach created between the regime and a large section of the Iranian people
seemed to have become unbridgeable.
Worse still, most of the key figures in the regime’s support-base within the
clergy, the military-security apparatus, and the Islamic academic and cultural
elite seemed to be either hedging their bets or expressing some sympathy for the
protesters.
At the same time a vocal minority within the regime is calling for an end to
what they call “strategic patience” by “slaughtering the enemy” in the streets,
many more arrests, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on neighboring
Arab countries, hitting American bases in the region and cutting off access to
cyberspace. There are even threats of “action” against exiled opposition figures
and unfriendly Western politicians.
For Khamenei today “to kill or not to kill?” that is the question. At the time
of this writing he seemed to be still trying to wiggle his way out by blowing
hot and cold. He described women who have rejected the mandatory “hijab” as “our
daughters” who ought not to be anathemized. At the same time, however, he
ordered more arrests and possibly more official murders, disguised as
“executions”.
The tragedy is that there is no guarantee that whichever option he chooses would
bring the nation back from the brink. The regime has destroyed all actual or
potential figures and/or organs that could interface with Iranian society at
large.
The regime’s support-base may not wish to go for the bloodbath option under the
banner of Khamenei who may not be there to distribute the spoils.
At the same time, his rivals within the regime may wish to make him the
scapegoat for all the failures, not to mention crimes, of the Khomeinist system
and reclaim political virginity in the hope of getting a piece of the cake if
and when it is baked and served.
Like his model Kim Il-sung, Khamenei has always tried to end up on the winning
side and, up to now, has succeeded. In a speech several years ago, Khamenei
implicitly compared himself to the mouse in the “Tom and Jerry” cartoons in
which the big and powerful pussycat is always outplayed by the small but agile
mouse he tries to catch. So, what is going to happen? Rather
than being a tapestry of possibilities, the political world is probabilistic,
rendering the quest for certainties difficult. However, the strongest
probability today is that the Khomeinist system could be heading for the cabinet
of curiosities.
Iranian Regime’s Legitimacy Crisis Leads to Killing of the
Youth
Camelia Entekhabifard/Asharq Al Awsat/January, 13/2023
On Monday January 9, the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader spoke to a group of
supporters of the regime. He repeated his previous condemnations of
demonstrators and affirmed the punishments meted out to them by the Judiciary.
These punishments have led to hurried death sentences for some protesters. They
are considered by people and jurists as state murders, aimed at intimidating
dissidents and opponents of the government.
Lives of dozens of others is under threat and many might be executed any moment.
Thousands of others are waiting in prison for their sentences and are faced with
the serious threat of torture, misbehavior and forced confessions.
Desperate families and families of victims of the last four months and the
injured form a community of thousands of people all around the country. Street
protesters have reportedly decreased. Instead of a vast confrontation with
forces of oppression on the streets, we see nightly outburst of spontaneous
slogans from windows and rooftops. Why did the leader of the Islamist regime
have to organize a meeting in Qom? Qom and Mashhad are two cities where the
Islamic regime has tried, for 43 years, to change the native context, use them
to spread extremist Shiite ideas and turn them into a religious pole and a base
for the regime. It has thus invested a lot in them. But by joining the
nationwide uprising, they’ve put a serious challenge to the regime of the
Supreme Leader. The largest post-1979 anti-government demonstration happened in
2017 in the city of Mashhad. In the course of the current nationwide uprising,
the large demonstrations in Mashhad and Qom have been a surprise to the regime.
Even when rumors about Ayatollah Khamenei’s health, death or secret surgery were
so widespread that The New York Times wrote about them, he didn’t see reason
enough to be present in public and snuff out the rumors.
But since the national uprising of Iranians begun four months ago, Ayatollah
Khamenei has spoken publicly a total of 11 times, for various reasons and in a
variety of meetings, explicitly and implicitly mentioning the current events.
Some people believe that his public presence and his threats against the jailed
protesters is aimed at sowing fear. But I have another interpretation.
The uprising of the Iranian nation has not finished and its vast scale and
audacity and fearlessness of protesters all over Iran, from Qom and Mashhad to
Zahedan, Kurdistan, Tehran, Khuzestan and Azerbaijan, has created a lot of
worries amongst the supporters of the regime.
The ruling regime must, first and foremost, reassure its own supporters, who are
a minority in society. It must take care of their concerns.
The speech of Khamenei on Monday was toward his supporters and in a city where,
for decades, a lot has been invested in making it into a base. Around seven
weeks ago, on November 20, some people in Qom put up a fire on South Keshavarz
Avenue to support the struggles of people in Mahabad.
The terrorizing approach of the regime against the arrested protesters and their
hasty execution is less of a dam against the thundering floods of the Iranian
nation and more a display of the force of severe repression to the supporters
who are worried about the future beyond the regime.
In the first days of Iran’s revolutionary movement, Hossein Ashtari, Iran’s
police chief (who was dismissed from his position on January 7) had been present
amongst the Special Units and asked them “not to have any doubts.”
This itself shows that doubts were present even amongst the forces of repression
and governmental mercenaries. As police forces were suppressing the
demonstrations every day, the regime tried to keep them happy: On October 30, it
passed a 20 percent increase in the wages of armed forces and the police.
As the pensioners and teachers have organized many protesters due to their low
income or lack of payment of wages, the salaries of armed forces and the police
have been increased twice in a year.
The other fact that shows the regime being worried about the coming events is
the change of the top police commander.
Two days prior to his speech in Qom, on Saturday, January 7, Khamenei replaced
Ashtari as the national police chief.
Ashtari has not done any dereliction of duty or showed any dissent.
The oppressive forces under his direct command killed hundreds in the streets.
Thousands were injured and arrested. Dozens of young men and women lost their
eyesight as pellets were fired to their eyes.
Ahmadreza Radan was Tehran’s police chief from 2006 to 2008. He was then deputy
national police chief till 2014. He has the experience of suppressing
demonstrations following the 2008 disputed elections. It was in that year that
killing of protesters began on streets and the crimes continued in Kahrizak’s
torture center.
The return of Radan to a top police post after eight years is not about scaring
the protesters. It is about reassuring the worried supporters of the religious
tyranny. Following the Iran-Iraq War, Radan was posted to the police and was
police chief of Kurdistan followed by Sistan and Baloochestan.
He has also been police chief of Khorasan and Khorasan Razavi.
He thus has experience in suppression and practical work in all cities and
sensitive centers in Iran and his appointment, more than terrorizing the
protesters, aims to show the biggest card of the regime to its own supporters
who are worried about their own future. Those who can afford it have left to
Canada and the West and some are left wondering what to do. (Recently, a video
of an IRGC commander was published on social media which shows some IRGC
commanders have differences with Khamenei and the regime about how the
protesters should be approached.)
Radan’s appointment could be a show of strength for supporters of the regime but
the crisis of legitimacy has roots elsewhere and there is no force that could
solve it. This crisis lies in the graves, unmarked in an affront to human
dignity; young people, filled with hopes, loves and dreams, were unjustly killed
and are buried in these graves. The unjustly shed blood of the youth of this
country keeps the uprising alive, more than any demonstration or street
protests.
The slogan we hear these days is full of meaning: “Thousands behind every killed
person.” This shows the opponents are countless and a nation is angry. The
murder of the youth of this nation is like an arrow shot at the eyes of
Esfandiyar.
Esfandiyar was a Royintan, a concept in Persian literature that denotes
immortality. In his masterpiece Shahname, Iranian poet Ferdowsi speaks of how
Rostam was able to defeat the immortal Esfandiyar. Rostam asked the bird Simorgh
for help. Simorgh told Rostam to make an arrow out of tamarisk, poison it and
aim at Esfandiyar’s eye; he would be killed then.
The mother of Mohammad Mehri Karami, who was executed on January 7 alongside
another arrested protester, Mohammad Hosseini, mourned for two boys: her own son
and Mohammad Hosseini who had no family. Crying on the grave of her son, she
said: “Oh God! Don’t let the tyranny reign.”
Eighty million Iranians have heard the voice of this mother and thousands of
mothers, sisters, fathers, brothers, neighbors, friends, acquaintances,
neighborhood mates, fellow denizens and compatriots. They have shed tears for
the martyr offpsring of the nation.
The life of this youth will not have been in vain. It will become the arrow that
hit the immortal Esfandiyar in the eye and killed him.
Security Challenges Facing the New Israeli Government
Jacob Nagel/The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune/January 13/2023
The State of Israel is not required by law to adopt a national security
strategy. But the need for such a document has been often raised, and several
efforts have been made to write one. In October 1953, Prime Minister David
Ben-Gurion presented a long disquisition on Israel’s security needs to the
Cabinet, which he wrote alone, as it was not coordinated with the security
agencies nor adopted by the security cabinet. In 2018, Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu wrote a draft of a national security strategy, with the help of a
small circle from the National Security Staff, his military attaché, and
personal assistant. Although parts of this document are classified, declassified
elements have been approved for publication. Netanyahu started to implement some
of his strategy before leaving office in June 2021; now he will be fully
empowered to implement this vision, or at least parts of it, bearing in mind the
important changes introduced since it was first written.
With Netanyahu’s return to office, he faces challenges with which he is
intimately familiar, although some have taken new forms during his 18-month
absence from the role of prime minister.
Israel’s Main Challenges
The three main issues on the prime minister’s agenda will be Iran (mainly the
nuclear project but also its development of precision-guided weapons and its
support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad); broadening the
scope of the Abraham Accords and adding Saudi Arabia; and dealing with several
internal social problems and economic challenges.
On the external security front, second only to Iran’s nuclear program, is this
threat of precision-guided weapons primarily from Hezbollah in the north. Third
in the hierarchy of threats is the possible of trouble in the south and east,
due to the potential deterioration of security in the areas controlled by the
Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and by Hamas in Gaza.
Iran
Israel would be happy to see a comprehensive agreement that would fully halt
Iran’s ability to ever get the bomb, but this is unlikely to happen. Israel sees
the American approach, joined by most European states, as surrendering to
Iranian demands rather than penalizing them for the ongoing breaches they have
committed, and for their aggressive role in supporting terrorists worldwide. The
lifting of the sanctions, envisioned as part of the return to the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action, would have seen billions of dollars going to Iran,
reviving its economy, and sustaining its support for terror. It would send a
message to the markets that business with this regime is acceptable and
profitable.
The planned Iranian concession would have verged on the absurd and the
ridiculous; with all past transgressions whitewashed, Iran was supposed to put
on hold the last stage of its march toward becoming a threshold military nuclear
power—with the option, left open under the terms of the proposed deal, to
complete it at any point in the future. The Iranian approach was based on four
assumptions, some of which may turn out to have been misguided:
The US has no intention of acting kinetically against the nuclear project,
whatever happens.
Israel does perceive the American lack of resolve but is unable to attack the
Iranian project’s infrastructure on its own. This misunderstanding by Iran may
have been fueled by statements by Israeli scholars (some of them former high
officials).
The Iranian economy will withstand all pressures applied against it, over time.
There is no real credible threat, American or Israeli, to the regime and to its
leaders.
Luckily for Israel and for the entire world, the conclusion of a renewed JCPOA,
which was extremely close, did not happen, mainly because of Iranian decisions.
Since then, two new developments have made the prospects for a new agreement
even more remote: the Russian–Iranian alignment, with Iranian support for
Russia’s attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine; and the continued protests and
unrest in Iran.
The disturbances in Iran seem to be a war of the granddaughters against their
grandfathers. The world, and specifically the US, may have become indifferent to
further proof of Iran’s blatant nuclear transgressions, but they are not
indifferent to the killing of girls and women. When the impact of these images
is combined with Iran’s support for Russia’s killing of women and children in
Ukraine (through the supply of attack drones and likely also missiles to
Russia), the hypocrisy of the world, above all that of the US, toward the
Iranians and their nuclear program may finally come to an end.
Nevertheless, Israel must prepare for a broad and comprehensive campaign against
Iran in the next few years. This is what the research and development programs
and acquisition efforts of the Israel Defense Forces and the Mossad are most
likely being directed to achieve. The new government must do all it can to
ensure that Israel will not stand alone in such a confrontation, but it must
also prepare for this eventuality.
In parallel, Israel can and should persist with the effort to weaken the Iranian
regime. This should include active support for the protests, which may be the
first serious opportunity, since the fall of the Shah, to bring down the regime.
Such activities must include all forms of support for the struggle.
Economically, Israel can fan the distrust of citizens in the economic and
banking system, by pointing to official corruption, encouraging withdrawals from
the banks, and hastening the ongoing collapse of the rate of the Iranian Rial.
In intelligence terms, Israel can release personal information about the senior
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and the Basij (IRGC’s militia)
operatives who are fighting and killing the protesters, and about anticipated
movements of regime forces. Operationally, Israel can disrupt some of the
state-sponsored capacities of key Iranian industries, encouraging walkouts, as
well as cyberattacks affecting daily activities. Practically, Israel could even
supply basic weapons such as rifles and handguns to the insurgents to defend
themselves against their oppressors.
Even President Biden has been overheard recently saying bluntly that Iran should
be “liberated” and that the JCPOA is “dead.” Still, Robert Malley, his envoy to
the nuclear negotiations—apparently oblivious to the president’s
guidance—continues with his European colleagues to look for ways to revive the
agreement.
Syria and Lebanon
Israel has historically defined three red lines to which it would respond if
breached: the transfer of “tie-breaking” weaponry from Iran to Hezbollah via
Syria (particularly precision-guided weapons, or the technologies to produce
them), the establishment of Iranian permanent bases (including Iranian-backed
militias) in Syria, and preparations for the creation of a terror infrastructure
on the country’s northern border. Despite the intense Israeli activity, which,
according to foreign sources (Israel provides no details), has picked up
recently, the threat remains real and serious.
Hassan Nasrallah (Hezbollah’s leader) will ultimately have to acknowledge that
his “precision project” is also a huge threat to the collapsing state of
Lebanon. If the production of precision missiles and the conversion of
non-precision ones continues on Lebanese soil—including the expected use of
civilian aircraft and of Beirut’s international airport to transport the
necessary parts from Iran to sustain this industry—Israel will have no choice
but to strike and destroy the relevant infrastructure. This scenario could well
deteriorate into war and lead to Lebanon’s collapse.
Lebanon’s condition could also cause Nasrallah to pause before he joins the fray
in an Israeli–Iranian confrontation—even though this is the sole purpose for
Iran’s investment in Hezbollah over the years. But Israel cannot count on that
and must prepare for the worst.
Gaza and the West Bank
In Gaza, the question is not whether, but when the next major clash will occur.
Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, largely funded and controlled by Iran,
continue their extensive buildup and the construction of underground
infrastructure for attack and defense in the future. They have no interest in
bringing quiet to the area, which is bound to undermine their rule in Gaza. The
main goal of both the government and the military is to do all that is possible
to preserve the peace and quiet for the communities living next to the Gaza
Strip and to prepare for the next round of battle. This will require tools to
deliver a heavy blow to Hamas, its leaders, and its infrastructure, which would
reduce Hamas’s appetite for the (inevitable) next round of battle for a long
period of time.
Israel must also exhaust all possible means (and apparently not everything has
been done so far) to bring an end to the sad story of both the two bodies of IDF
soldiers and the two live civilians being held by Hamas for years—without
surrendering to the terrorists’ demands. By doing so, Israel will make a clear
message of its moral duty toward all IDF soldiers that their country will never
abandon them.
Vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, Israel must prepare for
the day after Mahmoud Abbas. Who will replace him is far from certain. Abbas
himself, who rarely “missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity,” neither is
likely to generate any change nor lead any new initiatives. Moreover, it is
questionable if he will be replaced by a leader who can bring about the
necessary change. The PA chose to confront Israel by internationalizing the
conflict and transforming it into international legal procedures in institutions
that in practice are dedicated to neither peace nor justice. Israel must exact a
price from the PA leadership for choosing this false course of action, while, at
the same time, security cooperation must continue as it is beneficial for both
sides.
The warnings about a “third intifada” are premature, although the danger is
still acute and could materialize. Despite the existence of the PA and the
difficulties in the field, Israel enjoys broad freedom of action for enforcing
security and neutralizing terror. Despite the recent rise in the number of
terror attacks and the broadening of its infrastructure, economic interests
could prevail, and intelligent conflict management could lead to a “controlled
calm.” Mistakes in managing the situation, however, could lead to a
deterioration that neither side wants.
*Jacob Nagel served as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s acting national security
advisor from 2015 to 2017. He is currently a fellow at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies and a visiting professor at the Technion. FDD is a
Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national
security and foreign policy.
Iran won’t be sidelined by Turkiye-Syria warmth
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/January 13, 2023
It has become a cliché to describe relations between Turkiye and Iran as a
“manageable competition”and “reluctant cooperation.” In many ways, Ankara’s
relations with Tehran resemble its relations with Moscow, and Syria best
displays the complicated nature of ties between all three.
In particular, the Astana peace process these three countries launched in early
2017 conceptualizes the Ankara-Tehran-Moscow axis in the Syria context. Astana
offered no bed of roses, but it became a framework for preventing conflict while
establishing the three countries’ spheres of influence.
After years of enmity, Turkiye-Syria relations are set to enter a new stage.
While Russia is spearheading the normalization process, Iran is jockeying to
carve out a new role in the latest phase of the Syrian crisis. President Ebrahim
Raisi will visit both Türkiye and Syria soon, his first visit to Türkiye since
taking office two years ago.
Raisi’s trip will reciprocate that of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to
Tehran last year, and enable the two sides to bring the Syria issue to the table
in a detailed way. Besides Syria, the Caucasus — in particular relations with
Azerbaijan and Armenia — Afghanistan, and mutual security concerns posed by
terrorist groups are likely to be on the agenda. Erdoğan’s July visit to Tehran
was hailed by Raisi as an “important turning point” in improving the level of
cooperation, and also provided an opportunity for Turkish, Iranian, and Russian
leaders to meet as part of the Astana format.
The Iranian president’s imminent visits confirm that, rather than being
sidelined, Tehran aims to be a part of the normalization process not only in
rhetoric, but also in practice. Iranian officials were unhappy at not being
invited to the recent Russian-mediated meeting between Syrian and Turkish
defense ministers and intelligence chiefs in Moscow. The second phase of those
talks this month are expected to include foreign ministers. There has been no
mention of Iran’s involvement, although Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad
said last week that Iran should play a role in “any political initiative” in his
country, and praised Tehran’s role in fighting terrorism in Syria.
In any case, Raisi’s visit will highlight Iran's strategic interests in Syria,
consolidate its role in the region, and show what it expects from the outcomes
of the Turkiye-Syria talks.
Although partnered with Tehran as part of the Astana format, Ankara’s priority
has been to synchronize its Syrian policies with Moscow, especially in relation
to the Kurdish threat. Turkiye’s Syria policy is closely intertwined with that
threat, and Ankara has long had the perception that the Kurdish card was used by
Tehran as leverage. However, in reality, Kurdish separatist movements are
considered a threat by not only Ankara, but also Tehran. That was why both
countries opposed the Kurdish independence referendum in northern Iraq in 2017.
However, Ankara and Tehran view the Kurdish threat differently; the former
considers it existential, the latter sees it as a lesser security issue.
Some believe that the protests in Iran since the death of 22-year-old Mahsa
Amini in police custody in September might push the regime to spend more of its
resources on domestic stability rather than foreign policy. However, the
opposite could also happen as the regime shows no sign of backing down in its
foreign policy. Iran might take some foreign policy steps to consolidate, rather
than loosen, its influence in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and the rest of the region.
In this regard, how the developments in Iran will evolve, and how the
Turkiye-Syria normalization process will continue, will be the two important
determinants of how Iran’s role would be carved out in Syria.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s
relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz
Taliban liars will never change
Luke Coffey/Arab News/January 13, 2023
The winter months are a time of hardship and hunger for many Afghans, of whom an
estimated 97 percent are threatened with poverty. This winter, 18.9 million
Afghans are suffering from starvation. Meanwhile half the population are reliant
on international humanitarian aid for survival. Making matters worse, this aid
is now at risk after the Taliban banned NGOs from employing local female staff.
How have the Taliban responded to this crisis? Last week they introduced to the
world “the first sports car designed and manufactured in Afghanistan.”
Pictures of the new Mada 9 show a sleek looking vehicle, even if under the hood
is an engine from a Toyota Corolla. The images are good social media content for
the Taliban, but Afghans cannot eat a car. Amid debates on the global stage
about how best to provide aid to the Afghan people without lining the pockets of
the Taliban elite, unveiling a sports car was poor timing to say the least.
A smart looking sports car with a Corolla engine sums up the Taliban. The group
says whatever its international audience wants to hear to create a superficial
impression, but a closer look under the hood shows something else.
Every major promise or commitment by the Taliban since peace talks with the
Trump administration began in 2019 has turned out to be a lie. Donald Trump and
Joe Biden were so desperate to leave Afghanistan that they were either easily
duped, or simply didn’t care and were willing to believe anything they were
told. There are three notable examples.
The first is the Taliban’s pledge to form an inclusive government. In September
2021, deputy leader Mullah Ghani Baradar said: “We are working to form an
inclusive government that represents all the people of Afghanistan…”
This has not come remotely close to happening. Far from representing all the
people of Afghanistan, the government is instead focused on representing only
the different factions inside the Taliban. The Taliban at the top is fractured
and plagued by infighting. At least five different groups — the Haqqani faction,
the Baradar wing of the Kandahari faction, the Yaqoob wing of the Kandahari
faction, the Pakistani ISI-backed “Supreme Leader” Hibatullah Akhundzada, and
the non-Pashtun Taliban operating in northern Afghanistan — are competing for
influence and power. With so much division, any hopes of forming an inclusive
government with other non-Taliban groups has all but faded away.
The second example is on women’s rights. In August 2021, a Taliban spokesman
said women would be “very active in society but within the framework of Islam.”
A month later, the Taliban permitted women to attend universities with
sex-segregated classrooms, but this was stopped last month. Younger girls have
not been allowed to attend secondary school since the Taliban takeover, despite
repeated pledges to the contrary. The job market is no better for women. Female
government workers are barred from entering their own offices. The Taliban also
made it illegal for a woman to be treated by a male doctor. This ruling leaves
millions of Afghan women in a perilous healthcare situation. After all, if women
are barred from university education how will there be any female doctors?
The final example is the Taliban’s promises on terrorism. Though their agreement
with the Trump administration said the Taliban would “prevent any group or
individual, including Al-Qaeda, from using the soil of Afghanistan to threaten
the security of the US and its allies,” their takeover has enabled terrorist
groups.
Daesh has thrived in Afghanistan, and their mass casualty attacks, often aimed
at the Shiite Hazara minority, remain common. Al-Qaeda’s reestablished presence
in Afghanistan was best highlighted when its leader, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, was
killed in a US drone strike in Kabul in July. In addition, smaller terrorist
groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Jamaat-e Ansarullah now
operate freely in Afghanistan and seek to destabilize Central Asia.
Because of the actions of the Biden administration and the total withdrawal of
international troops, few if any good policy options remain in Afghanistan. The
most immediate and important thing for the international community to do is to
finally acknowledge the Taliban for what they really are, and what the hope is
that theywill some day be. The Taliban have not changed, and there are no signs
that they will.
The international community should also start engaging with all stakeholders in
Afghan society. This includes different minority groups marginalized by the
Taliban, and armed resistance groups such as the National Resistance Front of
Afghanistan. If we can talk to the Taliban, then why not other groups too?
As each month of Taliban rule passes, it becomes increasingly clear that the
“new Taliban” is the same old Taliban from the 1990s. As the international
community remains impotent, the Afghan people continue to suffer. Sadly, 2023
will be another hard year for them.
• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey