English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 12/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2023/english.january12.23.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Whoever believes in the Son has eternal life; whoever disobeys the Son will not
see life, but must endure God’s wrath
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John
03/31-36: “The one who comes from above is above all; the one who is of the
earth belongs to the earth and speaks about earthly things. The one who comes
from heaven is above all. He testifies to what he has seen and heard, yet no one
accepts his testimony. Whoever has accepted his testimony has certified this,
that God is true. He whom God has sent speaks the words of God, for he gives the
Spirit without measure. The Father loves the Son and has placed all things in
his hands. Whoever believes in the Son has eternal life; whoever disobeys the
Son will not see life, but must endure God’s wrath.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 11-12/2023
Berri postpones presidential vote after death of ex-speaker
Mikati says cabinet to convene regardless of any boycotts
Draft agenda of cabinet session sent to ministers
Report: Mikati met with Berri and Nasrallah aides over cabinet session
Judges ask Higher Judicial Council to meet Thursday over port case
Mawlawi: In order to preserve the prestige of the state, Zia and Mustafa Qaraali
arrested
Khoury: Any international judicial cooperation respecting the criminal procedure
code is not an infringement on the Lebanese sovereignty
German delegation investigating Lebanese central bank governor storms out of
Justice Palace
Judge reverses decision not to facilitate European teams' probe
European legal team arriving in Lebanon in corruption probe
Former Speaker Hussein Husseini dies aged 86
Al-Husseini, ‘godfather’ of Taif Agreement that ended Lebanon’s civil war, dies
Lebanon's public school teachers ask for 'very basic' improvements in latest
strike
British Embassy rejects 'baseless accusations' published in al-Akhbar
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 11-12/2023
US extends protection for ex-Trump aides from Iran threats
In blow to Yemen mediations, Iran pursues smuggling of weapons to Houthis
Jailed Iranian activist tells of torture and forced confessions in notorious
Evin prison
Treasury Sanctions Leaders of Iranian Drone and Missile Companies
New executions in Iran: UN says regime weaponising death penalty to frighten
public
Sweden appeals trial starts over 1980s Iranian war crimes
The war in Ukraine could be decided this year, former US Army general says,
warning of dire consequences if Russia faces defeat
Zelenskiy says Ukraine must 'be ready' at Belarus border
NATO, EU to boost protection for pipelines, key infrastructure
‘Putin’s Chef’ Humiliated by His Own Side After Bragging of Wagner Victory
Another country Putin thought was his friend has snubbed Russia by refusing to
host its military for routine exercises
‘What madness looks like’: Russia intensifies Bakhmut attack
Report: Oil price cap takes small slice of Russia war chest
Israeli president invites Turkey's Erdogan to visit, receives envoy
Palestinian killed in West Bank during Israeli arrest raid
U.S. seeks Canadian help to ease crowding at U.S.-Mexico border
Top Turkey, Syria, Russia diplomats to meet soon -Turkish official
US flights grounded over computer outage, no sign of attack till now
Six lightly wounded in knife attack at Paris train station
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 11-12/2023
U.S. Should
Sanction Tehran’s New Central Banker/Behnam Ben Taleblu and Saeed Ghasseminejad/FDD-Policy
Brief/January 11/2023
‘Adopt’ an Iranian Political Prisoner to Save a Life ...The regime kills much
more easily in darkness/Saeed Ghasseminejad and Toby Dershowitz/The National
Interest/January 11/2023
Strategy for a New Comprehensive U.S. Policy on Iran/Mark Dubowitz/Orde Kittrie/FDD
Monograph/January 11/2023
Why a Jew’s visit to the holiest Jewish site provokes outrage/Clifford D.
May/The Washington Times/January 11/ 2023
Jew-Hate at American Universities/Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/January 11,
2023
Jesus, Mary, and Joseph: ‘Canceled’ in Egypt/Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic
Solidarity/January 11, 2023
Biden well placed to win a second term/Joel Rubin/Arab News/January 11, 2023
on January 11-12/2023
Berri postpones presidential vote after death of ex-speaker
Naharnet/January 11/2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday postponed a presidential election
session scheduled for Thursday over the death earlier in the day of former
parliament speaker Hussein al-Husseini. Mourning Husseini, his predecessor,
Berri described him as “one of Lebanon’s major figures” who “dedicated his life
to defending the country and its people, territorial integrity and national and
pan-national identity.”“Lebanon has lost a human and legislative value that
cannot be replaced,” Berri lamented.
Mikati says cabinet to convene regardless of any boycotts
Naharnet/January 11/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said Wednesday that a caretaker Cabinet
session will be held early next week to approve an electricity loan regardless
of who may attend or boycott it. “There is no possibility to grant a loan to
Electricite du Liban except through a Cabinet decree and there can be no actions
that contradict with the public accounting law,” Mikati told Annahar newspaper
in an interview. “That’s why a Cabinet session will be held,” Mikati stressed,
noting that “its agenda has been finalized but it will be delayed until the
beginning of next week due to social considerations that took place in the past
hours and necessitated postponement.”He was apparently referring to the death of
ex-speaker Hussein al-Husseini earlier in the day and the three days of national
mourning that have been declared. Asked about the parties that support his
decision to hold a Cabinet session, Mikati said: “I will not care about who
might attend the session and who might boycott it; I will rather hold it.”“I
held consultations with some parties in this regard and let all ministers
shoulder their responsibilities,” he added. As for his tensions with Free
Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil, Mikati said: “Nothing has changed, the
differences are ongoing and there are no signs of a solution, knowing that I’m
not a fan of engaging in problems and conflicts with any party.” “The negative
approach that the FPM is using in dealing with the issues is the problem
itself,” the premier added.
Draft agenda of cabinet
session sent to ministers
Naharnet/January 11/2023
The General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers on Wednesday sent ministers
a memo informing them of the draft agenda of Cabinet’s upcoming session ahead of
setting a date for it, state-run National News Agency said. The move comes
“based on a request from the (caretaker) prime minister and in line with
articles 62 and 64 of the constitution,” the General Secretariat said. Caretaker
PM Najib Mikati has met with Speaker Nabih Berri’s political aide, Ali Hassan
Khalil, and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s aide, Hussein al-Khalil to discuss
limiting Cabinet’s agenda to two main items regarding the electricity file, al-Jadeed
TV said. Al-Jadeed added that Berri is in favor of a caretaker Cabinet meeting
while Hezbollah supports the session “in principle” but considers that its legal
path is "incomplete."The Free Patriotic Movement has repeatedly warned against
holding any caretaker cabinet session during presidential vacuum, arguing that
any decree issued would require the signatures of all ministers. The Movement’s
ministers had boycotted a session held on December 5 and described its
resolutions as unconstitutional.
Report: Mikati met with
Berri and Nasrallah aides over cabinet session
Naharnet/January 11/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has met with Speaker Nabih Berri’s
political aide, Ali Hassan Khalil, and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s aide, Hussein
al-Khalil, al-Jadeed TV reported. The meeting took place on Sunday afternoon and
discussed limiting the government's agenda to two main items regarding the
electricity file, the TV outlet said. The only two items to be discussed in
cabinet would be the electricity treasury loan and the tender for importing fuel
from Iraq. Al-Jadeed went on to say that Berri supports that cabinet convenes,
while Hezbollah supports the session in principle but considers that its legal
path is "incomplete."
Judges ask Higher Judicial Council to meet Thursday over port
case
Naharnet/January 11/2023
Higher Judicial Council judges Habib Mezher, Dany Chebli, Mireille Haddad and
Elias Richa on Wednesday announced that they have decided to invite the Higher
Judicial Council to convene Thursday to “address a sole topic, which is
discussing the requirements of the judicial probe into the case of the Beirut
port blast.”The judges said their decision is aimed at “preserving the proper
conduct of justice and the regularity of the work of the judiciary,” adding that
they are keen on “all rights” and that their move is based on “Article 6 of the
judiciary’s law.”Families of the blast victims had on Tuesday stormed the
Justice Palace in Beirut in protest at perceived political and judicial
obstruction of the investigation, a few days after the judiciary ended a lengthy
judicial strike. Speaking to al-Jadeed TV, a spokesman for the families, William
Noon, said: “We are not against the Higher Judicial Council but rather against
some judges in in it.”“All that we want is for the investigation to resume,”
Noon added. The investigation into the blast, which killed over 230 people,
injured thousands and caused billions of dollars in damage has been blocked for
months now by Lebanon's political powers. That came after three former ministers
filed legal challenges against investigative Judge Tarek Bitar effectively
suspending his investigations. Many blame the tragedy on the Lebanese
government's longtime corruption, but the elite's decades-old lock on power has
ensured they are untouchable. The Aug. 4, 2020 explosion occurred when hundreds
of tons of highly explosive ammonium nitrate, a material used in fertilizers,
detonated at the port. It later emerged that the ammonium nitrate had been
shipped to Lebanon in 2013 and stored improperly at a port warehouse ever since.
Senior political and security officials knew of its presence but did nothing.
Bitar has been the subject of harsh criticism by Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah Bitar's investigation a "big mistake"
and said it was biased. He also asked authorities to remove Bitar. Bitar is the
second judge to take the case. The first judge, Fadi Sawwan, was forced out
after complaints of bias by two ministers. Bitar charged four former senior
government officials with intentional killing and negligence that led to the
deaths of dozens of people. He also charged several top security officials in
the case.
Mawlawi: In order to
preserve the prestige of the state, Zia and Mustafa Qaraali
arrested
NNA/January 11/2023
The Minister of Interior and Municipalities in the caretaker government, Bassam
Mawlawi, tweeted on his account: “In order to preserve the prestige of the
state, and to prevent any attacks on the spiritual references and security
elements, the police, in Batroun, arrested Diaa and Mustafa Qaraali, who were
exposed today in Kafr Qahel – Koura with words.” Offensive to the security
forces and Bkerke. We affirm that only the legitimate security services protect
citizens.
Khoury: Any international judicial cooperation respecting the criminal procedure
code is not an infringement on the Lebanese sovereignty
NNA/January 11/2023
Caretaker Minister of Justice, Henry Khoury, on Wednesday stressed that “any
international judicial cooperation that takes places in compliance with the
(Lebanese) code of criminal procedure does not constitute an infringement on the
sovereignty of the Lebanese judiciary.”
“The arrival of European judicial investigators to Lebanon as
part of the probe into crimes suspected to have taken place at the (Lebanese)
Central Bank has sparked controversy, with some supporting this step considering
its importance to establish justice, and others rejecting it as a violation of
the Lebanese judicial sovereignty,” Khoury told a press conference. “Under law
no. 23 dated 16/10/2008, Lebanon has ratified the United Nations Convention
against Corruption,” he reminded. “The instruments of ratification were
submitted to the UN Secretary General on 22.4.2009. As of that date, Lebanon has
become a party to the first international convention that sheds the light on the
recovery of money and the fight against corruption,” he explained.
“Under the ministerial decision no. 1/78 dated 24/6/2015, the
Ministry of Justice formed an ad-hoc committee that set out the guidelines for
international cooperation over affairs related to money recovery and the fight
against corruption,” Khoury continued.
“It is no secret that Lebanon has received judicial cooperation
requests from Germany, France, Luxembourg and Switzerland, over suspected
financial crimes; we have responded to some of these requests and handed over to
France, Switzerland and Germany some of the required evidence, interrogation
reports and testimonies that were made during the initial investigations at the
State Prosecution of the Court of Cassation,” he indicated. “The Ministry of
Justice received requests for judicial cooperation from Germany, Luxembourg ad
France, in which these states asked to visit Lebanon and initiate investigations
by themselves, in addition to interrogating individuals and hearing testimonies;
these requests were referred to the Prosecution of the Court of Cassation,
which, in turn, responded to them by the diplomatic means through the Ministry
of Justice,” he said.
Asked about the date of arrival of the visiting judicial delegations, Khoury
said that the German investigators have already reached Beirut, and that the
delegations from France and Luxembourg shall arrive on January 16. He added that
they will all leave on January 20.
German delegation investigating Lebanese central bank governor storms out of
Justice Palace
Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 11/2023
BEIRUT: A German judicial delegation stormed out of the Justice Palace in Beirut
on Wednesday, disappointed that its requests had been turned down. The German
delegation was the first to arrive in Beirut, followed by delegations from
France and Luxembourg, to investigate alleged fraud by Riad Salameh, the
governor of the Mediterranean country’s central bank, the Banque du Liban.
Salameh’s name was mentioned in cases related to financial transfers from
Lebanon to the banks of the aforementioned countries. The delegations will try
to identify the sources of the funds and their connection to corruption, money
laundering and financial crimes in European countries.Arab News learned that the
German delegation met on Wednesday with the appellate public prosecutor in
Beirut, Judge Raja Hamoush, who was assigned to facilitate the delegation’s work
and to show them Salameh’s file, which the Lebanese public prosecutor’s Court of
Cassation had investigated without charging anyone.
However, the German delegation included officials from the German police, so
Hamoush asked them to leave the office, as the meeting was purely judicial,
arguing that they had no capacity to be there or view any files. A judicial
source told Arab News: “The German judges were equipped with advanced cameras.
When the file was placed in front of them, and it was sealed with red wax, they
asked if they could photograph its contents once opened as it includes hundreds
of documents and papers. Hamoush refused and said that the judges should submit
their request to the public prosecution’s Court of Cassation.”
The source added: “They then asked to take a couple of snaps using their mobile
phones, but Hamoush categorically turned down such requests. The delegation thus
left Hamoush’s office and headed to that of Public Prosecutor Judge Ghassan
Oueidat, and the file remained sealed with red wax.”
The source noted that the delegation asked Oueidat to be allowed to photocopy
the file, but he told them that he needed a written request and to know exactly
what they wanted from the file. Following this, the German delegation stormed
out of Oueidat’s office and left the Palace of Justice. Oueidat has previously
pointed out that the mission of the European delegations is to interrogate
people who were previously interrogated by the Lebanese judiciary as witnesses.
The delegations from France and Luxembourg are scheduled to arrive early next
week, and the European delegations will remain in Lebanon until Jan. 20.
According to an official letter sent by the three countries to Lebanese
authorities informing them of their presence in Lebanon, the delegations include
public prosecutors and financial judges. The request angered the Lebanese
judiciary, however, as it did not include a local judicial delegation and was
inconsistent with Lebanese sovereignty. Later, Oueidat met with representatives
from the embassies of the three countries, after which it was decided that a
Lebanese judge shall be present in all interviews and interrogations.
Arab News learned that those who were summoned were advised by the Lebanese
judiciary to attend as there would be no charges or arrests made against them
and that any claim that the European judges wished to make must be made in their
country, with extradition requests sent by Interpol to Lebanon. The Lebanese
judiciary cannot extradite any Lebanese to any other country for trial even if
there are treaties signed between Lebanon and the foreign country in question.
Trials must take place in Lebanon. Salameh has been fiercely criticized due to
his monetary policies. The French financial judiciary has been investigating his
wealth since 2021 on charges of money laundering and embezzlement. Switzerland
has also been investigating the embezzlement of funds from the Banque du Liban
for two years and suspects that Salameh and his brother, Raja Salameh, are
behind it.
Judge reverses decision not
to facilitate European teams' probe
Naharnet/January 11/2023
Attorney General Judge Ziad Abu Haidar on Wednesday reversed a previous decision
taken by him and tasked Judge Raja Hamoush with facilitating the work of a
German judicial delegation seeking to look into the corruption case of Central
Bank Governor Riad Salameh, LBCI TV reported. According to LBCI, Abu Haidar had
initially refused a request from State Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oueidat to
facilitate the delegation's mission. Abu Haidar “turned off his cellphone and
left his office,” LBCI had reported. Oueidat had vowed to refer Abu Haidar to
judicial inspection in the wake of the initial refusal, the TV network added.
European legal team
arriving in Lebanon in corruption probe
Associated Press/January 11/2023
A European judicial delegation from France, Germany, and Luxembourg has started
to arrive in Lebanon to probe the country's Central Bank governor and dozens of
other individuals over suspected corruption, the justice minister said
Wednesday. Five European countries are probing the embattled governor, Riad
Salameh on allegations of laundering public money in Europe. Switzerland first
opened a probe two years ago, followed by France, Germany, Luxembourg, and
Liechtenstein. Since 2019, Lebanon has been in the throes of the worst economic
and financial crisis in its modern history, rooted in decades of corruption and
mismanagement. Three quarters of the country's population now lives in poverty.
Once hailed as the guardian of Lebanon's financial stability, many in the
cash-strapped country now hold the 72-year-old Salameh responsible for the
crisis, citing policies that drove up national debt and caused the Lebanese
pound to lose more than 90% of its value against the dollar. The governor, who
has held the post since April 1993, still enjoys the backing of top politicians.
Activists and lawyers have questioned the personal wealth Salameh has amassed
over the years, though he has repeatedly insisted that he earned it prior to his
appointment as governor while working as an investment banker for Merril Lynch
for nearly two decades. He said his last salary was $2 million a year, and that
he had a fortune worth $23 million, plus property he had acquired and "wisely
invested" in to grow his wealth, before he became governor. Caretaker Justice
Minister Henri Khoury said in a press conference that the German delegation had
arrived to Lebanon, while their counterparts from France and Luxembourg are
scheduled to arrive next Monday. They will leave the country four days later, he
said.
"It is no longer a secret that Lebanon received requests for legal assistance
from Germany, France, Luxembourg, and Switzerland," Khoury said, adding that
Lebanon sent Switzerland, Germany, and France "numerous pieces of evidence that
they requested". The European judges look to question over a dozen individuals,
notably the governor, his brother Raja Salameh, the heads of major commercial
banks in Lebanon and the auditors of the central bank.
French, German and Luxembourg authorities in March froze more than $130 million
in assets belonging to five suspects linked to a money laundering investigation
of $330 million and 5 million Euros. It is widely believed that the Salameh
brothers are among them. The office of Switzerland's attorney general said in
January 2021 that it requested legal assistance from Lebanon. A document of the
request obtained by The Associated Press showed that federal prosecutors heavily
inquired about the Lebanese Central Bank's relationship with Forry Associates
Ltd, a brokerage firm owned by Raja Salameh. Several reports have said that Riad
Salameh hired the firm to handle government bonds sales by the Central Bank in
which his brother's firm received about $330 million in commissions. The
governor said last November that "not a single penny of public money" was used
to pay for Forry Associates Ltd. Zeina Wakim, a lawyer who heads the Swiss
organization Accountability Now that filed legal complaints against Salameh and
affiliates in Switzerland, France, and the United Kingdom, said she expects
"limited cooperation" from the Lebanese to "show good face" due to the country's
strong ties between the politicians, banks, and judiciary. "The delegation will
realize what it means to have the 18 largest banks in Lebanon controlled by the
elite," Wakim told the AP. "Any genuine and real cooperation in Lebanon — be it
a bank, public official, or judge — would be a strike to the system itself
because of this connection between the banking oligarchy and the political
elite, and obviously the governor of the central bank." Investigative Judge
Ghada Aoun has also pursued Salameh and his affiliates in 2022, freezing some of
Salameh's assets, slapping a travel ban, and briefly arresting his brother Raja.
In March 2022, she charged Salameh and his brother with illegal enrichment and
money laundering.
Former Speaker Hussein
Husseini dies aged 86
Associated Press/January 11/2023
Hussein Husseini, Lebanon's former parliament speaker and the father of the 1989
Taif Agreement that ended the country's 15-year civil war, died Wednesday after
days of illness. He was 85. Husseini was admitted to Beirut's American
University Medical Center on Jan. 3, after suffering from a strong flu, the
state-run National News Agency said. NNA added that Husseini remained in the
intensive care unit until his death on Wednesday morning. Caretaker Prime
Minister Najib Mikati declared a three-day mourning period in the crisis-hit
Lebanon while Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri postponed a session that was
scheduled to take place on Thursday to elect a new president. "Today Lebanon has
lost an authentic national and constitutional stature," Mikati said, adding that
"al-Husseini's presence constituted a milestone in the history of parliamentary
work in Lebanon."Husseini was elected to parliament representing the
northeastern Baalbek-Hermel region in 1972 and remained a legislator until 2008.
He was elected as parliament speaker in 1984, a job that he kept until 1992. The
politician was a harsh critic of Lebanon's sectarian-based political system that
divided top posts in the country of 5 million between Christian and Muslim
communities. Husseini was also a strong vocal opponent of the country's
financial policies, including heavy borrowing, that started in the 1990s and
eventually led to Lebanon's ongoing three-year economic meltdown.
Born to a prominent Shiite family in the town of Shmistar in the eastern Bekaa
Valley in April 1937, Husseini enjoyed wide respect among many Lebanese —
especially for his defense of civil rights and for not being involved in
widespread corruption among the country's political class.
In 1973, he helped found the Amal Movement and helped lift Lebanon's Shiite
community from decades of marginalization to a main power-broker in the small
nation. In 1978, he became the head of the Amal Movement but stepped down two
years later after he refused to have the group take part in the country's civil
war. He was replaced by Berri who still heads Amal. As parliament speaker,
Husseini was a key power behind the 1989 peace agreement reached between rival
Lebanese groups in the Saudi city of Taif that ended the 15-year civil war in
1990. In 2008, Husseini resigned from parliament in protest of the Doha
Agreement which ended weeks-long clashes between the country's political groups
and formed a government that gave Hezbollah and its allies veto powers in the
Cabinet. He claimed the deal was unconstitutional. Husseini, who held a degree
in business administration from Cairo University, is survived by several sons,
daughters and grandchildren.
Al-Husseini, ‘godfather’ of Taif Agreement
that ended Lebanon’s civil war, dies
Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 11/2023
Was constitutional and legal expert who took over leadership of parliament in
shadow of civil war
Lebanon declares mourning for three days during which Lebanese flags to be flown
at half-mast over all institutions
BEIRUT: Hussein Al-Husseini, Lebanon’s former parliament speaker and the
“godfather” of the 1989 Taif Agreement that ended the country’s 15-year civil
war, died on Wednesday due to illness. He was 86. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri
announced that the presidential election scheduled for Thursday would be
postponed by a week because of the death of his predecessor, who presided over
parliament from 1984 to 1992. Lebanon declared a
three-day mourning period during which the Lebanese flags will be flown at
half-mast over all institutions. Al-Husseini’s funeral
will take place on Thursday in his hometown, Shamstar, in the Beqaa Valley, in
eastern Lebanon. Al-Husseini was admitted to the
hospital for flu and remained in intensive care, but he succumbed to his illness
on Wednesday morning. He is described as the godfather
of the Taif Agreement, which brought Lebanon out of its civil war.
He was a constitutional and legal expert who took over the leadership of
parliament in the shadow of the war.
Al-Husseini quit in August 2008, three years after the assassination of former
Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and in light of a political rift between Hezbollah,
its allies and the sovereign forces. He famously said:
“Given the fact that the authority is capable if it wants, and the fact that it
has so far not wanted, I announce my resignation from the membership of this
parliament.”Many documents regarding the deliberations and negotiations related
to the Taif Agreement remained in Al-Husseini’s custody, and their full details
have not been disclosed, despite all the political pressure put on the former
speaker to release them.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati praised Al-Husseini for approving “the National
Accord Document that ended the Lebanese war,” while former Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora said he regretted the loss of Al-Husseini “in these sensitive and
delicate circumstances, nationally, constitutionally and institutionally, and in
light of the continued domination of weapons outside the authority of the
state.”Siniora noted “the great role of Al-Husseini in preserving and defending
Lebanon, the homeland of Islamic-Christian coexistence.”Former Prime Minister
Tammam Salam praised Al-Husseini’s work “to preserve democracy…in the most
difficult times and to move Lebanon from the furnace of war to its new
constitution within the framework of the marathon sessions that were held in
Taif under Arab sponsorship and with the participation of an inclusive
parliament.”Lebanon’s Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdel Latif Derian said that
Al-Husseini “made continuous efforts to preserve the unity of Lebanon, its
people, institutions and civil peace, and played a key role in the signing of
the Taif Agreement that emerged from the parliamentary meeting under his
leadership in Saudi Arabia. Throughout his political life, he adhered to
coexistence and was keen on the unity of (Lebanese Muslims and Christians), so
that this country (could remain) a free, independent, Arab and sovereign (state)
that cooperates with its Arab brothers.”The Supreme Islamic Shia Council
described Al-Husseini as “a man of moderation and high patriotic morality.”
The plenary session that was scheduled to be held on Thursday would have
been the first this year, after the failure of MPs in 10 previous sessions in
December to deliver a Maronite figure to the presidency due to divisions between
Lebanon’s various political factions.
Lebanon's public school teachers ask for 'very basic'
improvements in latest strike
Nada Homsi/The National/January 11/2023
Public school teachers say they cannot continue to teach without liveable wages
and transport allowance.
Lebanon's public school teachers entered their third day of strike action with a
protest outside the Education Ministry on Wednesday.
Hundreds gathered to express their discontent over devalued salaries and the
dire work conditions under which they have been operating since the start of
Lebanon’s prolonged economic crisis. While most goods and services in the
financially struggling nation are now priced either in US dollars or their
equivalent in local currency, teachers do not receive a salary commensurate with
the rate of inflation.
Lebanon’s financial collapse, now in its fourth year and with no signs of
abating, has driven more than 80 per cent of the population into poverty after
banks informally imposed capital control that locked people out of the full
value of their savings.
The local currency is now worth just a fraction of what it once was, while
inflation hovers in the triple digits.
'Our place is in the classroom, not the streets'
High school maths teacher Hanan Fawaz says her demands are “very basic". Ms
Fawaz and other teachers want salary adjustments that match the local currency’s
rapid devaluation — preferably paid in US dollars — transport allowances and
better healthcare coverage.
A public school teacher’s monthly wage is about 3,000,000 Lebanese pounds a
month, or almost $70, which is “not even enough to get us to school", she said.
“We’re not disconnected from reality," Ms Fawaz said. "We know what the economic
situation is in the country, so we’re not making unrealistic demands. "But every
other public sector got a salary adjustment for employees. Why not us?” Another
protester nodded emphatically. “Our place is in the
classroom, not in the streets,” she said. “We taught the ministers and the
judges and all those who are in positions of power now. "It was teachers who got
them to where they are today. So now they need to take responsibility.”
Public school teachers were on strike sporadically throughout 2022, with the
most recent strike lasting more than a month.
It ended with promises from the Education Ministry that salaries would be
tripled and each teacher would receive another monthly incentive of $130, paid
in Lebanese lira at the set Central Bank’s Sayrafa rate.
They would also receive a transport allowance of 95,000 lira for each
working day. But the $130 monthly incentive did not arrive.
“The Education Minister promised something he wasn’t able to deliver,”
said Hussein Jawad, who leads the public school teachers' union.
“And the day that our salary adjustments came into effect, the lira
devalued further against the dollar. Every teacher lost around $60 from their
salary before they even received it.”Fuel prices have also skyrocketed: at the
time the transport allowance was promised, a litre of petrol was 300,000 lira.
“Now it’s over 800,000 lira and the transportation stipend is already
almost worthless,” Mr Jawad said. Some teachers struggled to make it to
Wednesday's protest. “They gave us our demands with their right hand and they
took everything away with their left hand,” Mr Jawad said, trying to illustrate
the futility of receiving local salary adjustments in Lebanon’s swiftly
devaluing currency. The overstressed and overcrowded public education sector is
in a dire predicament. Teachers say they are faced
with no choice but to strike again now that their salaries have again
drastically devalued and drained their purchasing power. But many teachers were
at pains to distance themselves from the teacher’s unions, which they said did
not represent them. They say the unions have affiliations to Lebanon’s political
parties, which are widely regarded as having contributed to the country’s
economic demise. “We didn’t come here for the syndicates, we came to represent
ourselves because they don’t represent us,” said Ms Fawaz. Teachers were at a
breaking point last week when the caretaker minister of education, Abbas Halabi,
announced a decision to provide teachers with a $5 incentive for every day
worked. Teachers and their syndicates, or unions, saw this decision as a
humiliation, prompting outrage. As a result of the strike the spring semester
has yet to begin, renewing doubts about the quality of Lebanon’s struggling
public school education. “There’s no education any more,” said Mustafa Hussein,
18, who attended the sit-in to support his teachers. “We’re seeing our future
slip away but we can’t blame the teachers. They’re trying as hard as they can to
teach us every day.”Mr Jawad told The National that the strike was technically
due to finish by the end of the week, but would be renewed on a weekly basis if
teachers’ demands were not met.
British Embassy rejects 'baseless accusations'
published in al-Akhbar
Naharnet/January 11/2023
The British Embassy in Beirut has categorically rejected "the unsubstantiated,
erroneous and misleading claims made in a report on UK support for the IMPACT
project published by Al Akhbar on 9 January 2023.""We are and remain proud of
our contribution to anti-corruption efforts in Lebanon, including the important
work of the IMPACT platform, Central Inspection and Judge George Attieh," the
embassy said in a statement. The statement added that
"the British Embassy agreed a Memorandum of Understanding with Central
Inspection on 20 August 2021 which detailed our Governance, Oversight, &
Accountability Project. The Lebanese government mentioned the project in their
financial plan issued on 30 April 2020. This project consists of technical
assistance to Central Inspection." It said that despite "baseless accusations,"
the project complies with the highest international standards for data
protection and security using industry-leading providers.
"We were disappointed that Al Akhbar’s editors did not contact us for
comment ahead of publishing the article. This would have allowed us to correct a
number of factual errors and misunderstandings," the British Embassy said,
adding that "IMPACT’s work is ground-breaking and the first of its kind in
Lebanon."The statement went on to say that "improving access to e-governance
provides much-needed transparency and accountability." "IMPACT’s high profile
achievements include enabling the COVID vaccine roll out and the World Bank
Social Safety Net."The British Embassy concluded that the UK is clear that
Lebanon’s leaders should focus on establishing a government to deliver
meaningful reforms, including to secure an IMF deal, and that this would be "a
vital step to alleviate the economic crisis and improve the lives of the
Lebanese people.""We have consistently called out corruption in Lebanon’s
governance systems, most recently in an article co-signed by G7 Ambassadors
together with the EU Ambassador last month to mark World Anti-Corruption day. We
will continue to work with our international partners in support of programmes
and institutions committed to combatting corruption and promoting transparency,
both of which are fundamental to a better future for Lebanon," the statement
said.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 11-12/2023
US extends
protection for ex-Trump aides from Iran threats
AP/January 11, 2023
WASHINGTON: The Biden administration has again extended government protection to
former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and one of his top Iran aides due to
persistent threats against them from Iran. In separate notices sent to Congress
late last week, the State Department said the threats to Pompeo and Brian Hook
remained “serious and credible.” Hook served as the Trump administration’s
special envoy for Iran. Along with Pompeo, Hook was the public face of the US
“maximum pressure” campaign against Iran following President Donald Trump’s 2018
decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Iran also blamed both men for
the US assassination of Iran Revolutionary Guard commander Qassem Soleimani in
Baghdad in January 2020 and vowed revenge. The Jan. 5 notifications to Congress
marked the 10th time the State Department has extended protection to Hook since
he left office in January 2021 and the seventh time it has been extended to
Pompeo. The discrepancy arises because Pompeo, as a former Cabinet secretary,
automatically had government security for several months after leaving office.
The notifications, obtained by The Associated Press, were signed by Acting
Deputy Secretary of State John Bass. “I hereby determine that the specific
threat with respect to former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo persists,” Bass
wrote. He used identical language to refer to the threat against Hook. The AP
reported in March 2022 that the State Department was paying more than $2 million
per month to provide 24-hour security to Pompeo and Hook. The latest
determinations did not give a dollar amount for the protection. Even as the
Biden administration has made those determinations and spent money for Pompeo
and Hook’s protection, it has continued to press ahead with indirect talks with
Iran aimed at salvaging the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that Trump withdrew from in
2018. Those talks have been stalled for many months now and the administration
is pessimistic they will resume anytime soon. The administration has blamed Iran
for the breakdown in talks, saying it has raised demands outside the scope of
the deal, which gave Tehran billions in sanctions relief in return for curbs on
its nuclear program. In the meantime, Iran has launched a major crackdown on
antigovernment protests sparked by the death of a woman in custody who was
accused of violating a law requiring women to wear headscarves in public. The
notifications do not specifically identify Iran as the source of the threats,
but Iranian officials have long vented anger at Pompeo and Hook for leading the
Trump administration’s policy against Iran, including designating the
Revolutionary Guard Corps a “foreign terrorist organization,” subjecting it to
unprecedented sanctions and orchestrating the Soleimani assassination.
In blow to Yemen
mediations, Iran pursues smuggling of weapons to Houthis
The Arab Weekly/January 11/2023
The US Navy seized over 2,100 assault rifles from a ship in the Gulf of Oman it
believes came from Iran and were bound for Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels,
a Navy spokesman said Tuesday. It was the latest capture of weapons destined to
Iran’s Yemen proxies.
Analysts said the seizure showed that Tehran, the Houthis' patron, was more
interested in fueling the war in Yemen than in helping reach a lasting truce
possibly leading to a settlement. Weapons smuggling by Iran casts a pall on
mediations efforts, including attempts by Oman to bridge the gap between the
positions of the internationally-recognised government and those of the
Iran-backed Houthis. The US Navy operation took place last Friday fter a team
from the USS Chinook, a Cyclone-class coastal patrol boat, boarded a traditional
wooden sailing vessel known as a dhow. They discovered the Kalashnikov-style
rifles individually wrapped in green tarps aboard the ship, said Cmdr. Timothy
Hawkins, a spokesman for the Navy’s Mideast-based 5th Fleet. The Chinook, along
with the patrol boat USS Monsoon and the guided missile destroyer USS The
Sullivans, took possession of the weapons. They resembled other assault rifles
previously seized by the Navy, suspected to be from Iran and heading to Yemen’s
Houthis. “When we intercepted the vessel, it was on a route historically used to
traffic illicit cargo to the Houthis in Yemen,” Hawkins told The Associated
Press. “The Yemeni crew corroborated the origin.”The Yemeni crew, Hawkins added,
will be repatriated back to a government-controlled part of Yemen. A United
Nations arms embargo has prohibited weapons transfers to the Houthis since 2014,
when Yemen’s civil war erupted. Iran has long denied arming the Houthis even as
it has been transferring rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, missiles and other
weaponry to the Yemeni militia using sea routes. Independent experts, Western
nations and UN experts have traced components seized aboard other detained
vessels back to Iran. The Houthis seized Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, in September
2014 and forced the internationally recognised government into exile. A
Saudi-led Arab coalition entered the war on the side of Yemen’s internationally
recognised government in March 2015. Years of inconclusive fighting has pushed
the Arab world’s poorest nation to the brink of famine. A six-month cease-fire
in Yemen’s war, the longest of the conflict, expired in October despite
diplomatic efforts to renew it after the Houthis rejected truce conditions. It
led to fears the fighting could again escalate. More than 150,000 people have
been killed in Yemen during the conflict, including over 14,500 civilians. There
have been sporadic attacks since the cease-fire expired, though international
negotiators are trying to find a political solution to the war. In November, the
Navy found 70 tonnes of a missile fuel component hidden among bags of fertiliser,
also allegedly from Iran and bound to Yemen.
Jailed Iranian activist tells of torture and
forced confessions in notorious Evin prison
Arab News/January 11, 2023
Qolian told of the brutal tactics interrogators use to obtain confessions that
are broadcast on state television
The activist said an interrogator demanded that she describe, on camera, details
of sexual relationships
LONDON: In a letter written inside Tehran’s notorious Evin prison, Sepideh
Qolian, a prominent female Iranian activist, revealed how prisoners are tortured
to extract confessions, the BBC reported. Qolian was
arrested in 2018 and convicted of acting “against national security” for her
support of a strike and protest by workers at a sugar factory in Iran’s
Khuzestan province. She is serving a five-year sentence and studying law in
prison. In her letter, seen by the BBC, Qolian describes the brutal
interrogations that she and other detainees endured. Coerced confessions
obtained in this way are subsequently broadcast on state television. Qolian
wrote that prison’s “cultural” wing, where she sits her law exams, is also used
as a “torture and interrogation” facility. “The exams
room is filled with young boys and girls, and the shouts of torturers can be
heard,” she writes in her letter.
Qolian also revealed details of her own interrogation and forced confession in
2018. She wrote that a female interrogator blindfolded her and demanded that she
describe, on camera, alleged sexual relationships she had. She refused to do so.
After hours of questioning, Qolian said she begged to be taken to a restroom.
The female interrogator took her to the women’s toilets, shoved her inside and
locked the door. The toilet was inside an interrogation room, and could hear a
man being tortured and whipped. “The sounds of torture continued for hours, or
maybe a day, maybe more. I lost track of time,” she wrote.
After she was let out of the toilet, and while sleep-deprived after three days
of continuous interrogation, she said she was taken to a room where a video
camera was set up and given a pre-written statement to read. “I took the script
from her as I was half-conscious and sat in front of the camera and read it,”
Qolian wrote. Her conviction and sentence were based on that confession. Qolian
identified her interrogator as Ameneh Sadat Zabihpour, who was sanctioned by the
US Treasury Department in November for her role in obtaining and broadcasting
forced confessions of dual nationals and other prisoners.
Zabihpour sued Qolian over her allegations, as a result of which the activist
received an additional eight-month prison sentence.
Qolian ends her letter by describing the ongoing anti-regime protests in Iran as
a “revolution.”She writes: “In the fourth year of my imprisonment I can finally
hear the footsteps of liberation from all across Iran. “Today the sounds we hear
on the streets of Marivan, Izeh, Rasht, Sistan and Baluchistan, and across Iran,
are louder than the sounds in interrogation rooms, this is the sound of a
revolution, the true sound of woman, life, freedom.”
Treasury Sanctions Leaders of Iranian Drone
and Missile Companies
FDD/January 11/2023
Latest Developments
The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned six executives and board members of one
of Iran’s top drone manufacturers, Qods Aviation Industries (QAI), on Friday for
their role in providing weapons to Russia. Russia has used the QAI drones, such
as the Shahed-131, Shahed-136, and Mohajer-6, since September to attack critical
infrastructure and civilian targets in Ukraine. The department also sanctioned
the director of Iran’s Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO) — itself a
subsidiary of Iran’s sanctioned Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics
(MODAFL) — which is responsible for overseeing Iran’s ballistic missile program.
Expert Analysis
“Targeting Tehran’s drones at a minimum requires going after both domestic and
foreign supply chains of procurers, producers, and proliferators that have
turned the Islamic Republic into a drone power. By sanctioning multiple
executives at once, the recent Treasury action can impede the musical chairs
often associated with sanctioning Iranian entities.”
— Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD Senior Fellow
Prominent New Targets
Friday’s targets included QAI Board Chairman Seyed Hojatollah Ghoreishi and QAI
Managing Director Ghassem Damavandian. Ghoreishi, Iran’s deputy defense
minister, is the head of the supply, research, and industry affairs section of
Iran’s MODAFL. According to Treasury, Ghoreishi negotiated the agreement to
supply UAVs to Russia, while Damavandian facilitated the transfer of UAVs to
Iranian military services and the training of Russian personnel on the drones’
use. The United States also sanctioned AIO’s director, Nader Khoon Siavash, for
his role in Iran’s ballistic missile production, testing, and deals with
international suppliers.
Wartime Impact
Russia allegedly began to import Iranian drones over the summer to make up for
its dwindling supply of cruise missiles and first deployed them extensively in
the fall. The Shahed-136 and its smaller version, the Shahed-131, are “suicide”
drones, better known as loitering munitions, and cost a fraction of the price of
Russia’s land-attack cruise missiles. The drones have an estimated range of
1,000 kilometers (621 miles) and carry a light warhead.
Iranian and U.S.-allied officials reported that Iran also plans to provide
Russia with the Fateh-110 and Zulfiqar short-range ballistic missiles. The
Fateh-110 has a reported range of 250 to 300 kilometers (roughly 150 to 190
miles), whereas the Zulfiqar has a reported 700-kilometer (435-mile) range.
Violations of UN Security Council Resolution
According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Iran’s provision of drones to
Russia violates United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2231, which
prohibits Iran from providing military UAVs without approval by the UNSC. The
United States has long struggled to hold Iran accountable for its serial
violations of UNSCR 2231, including its robust ballistic missile testing over a
period of years. Iran’s illicit commercial supply chain and robust domestic arms
industry has made it a significant drone power over the past decade.
New executions in Iran: UN says regime
weaponising death penalty to frighten public
France 24 /January 11, 2023
The UN human rights chief has accused Iran of weaponising the death penalty to
frighten the public and crush dissent. The statement follows the execution of
four protesters, two of whom were killed last weekend. The UN body says it has
information that two more executions are imminent, with more than a dozen other
people believed to be on death row. The Iranian regime is grappling to respond
to months of unrest triggered by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini following
her arrest by the morality police. For more, we speak to Shaparak Saleh, a
Franco-Iranian lawyer and the co-founder of the campaigning organisation Femme
Azadi, which was set up in the aftermath of Amini's death. Meanwhile, thousands
of Israelis have taken to the streets in Tel Aviv to protest the most right-wing
government in the country's history. The coalition took power at the end of
December and there are already fears of a rollback of rights, particularly for
Palestinians and other minority groups. Finally, we report on two Egyptian women
who are forging a path as DJs in the traditionally conservative society.
Sweden appeals trial starts over 1980s Iranian war crimes
STOCKHOLM (AP)/Wed, January 11, 2023
The appeals trial of an Iranian citizen who was sentenced to life by a Swedish
court for committing war crimes and murder during the Iran-Iraq war in the
1980s, started Wednesday in Stockholm. Hamid Noury was given a life sentence for
taking part in severe atrocities in July and August 1988 while working as an
assistant to the deputy prosecutor at the Gohardasht prison outside the Iranian
city of Karaj. Throughout last year's trial, Noury denied wrongdoing and Iran
called the court a “show” based on political motives. On Wednesday, despite
heavy rain, two dozen people opposed to the Iranian government demonstrated
outside the appeals court in suburban Stockholm, which is due to deliver its
ruling later this year.The development comes at a tense time for Tehran. Iran
has sentenced a Belgian aid worker to a lengthy prison term and lashes after
convicting him of espionage in a closed-door trial. Over the years, Iran has
detained a number of foreigners and dual nationals, accusing them of espionage
or other state security offenses and sentencing them after secretive trials in
which rights groups say they are denied due process. Anti-government protests
have convulsed Iran for months following the death in police custody of
22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was detained for allegedly violating Iran’s strict
Islamic dress code. Rallying under the slogan “Women, life, freedom,” the
protesters say they are fed up with decades of social and political repression.
Iran has blamed the protests on foreign powers, without providing evidence.
The war in Ukraine could be decided this year, former US
Army general says, warning of dire consequences if Russia faces defeat
Natalie Musumeci/Business Insider/January 11, 2023
Russia's war with Ukraine could come to a conclusion this year, according to a
former US Army general.
The Kremlin would likely turn to nuclear weapons if Moscow faces defeat in the
conflict, he said. However, this outcome is not the most likely, retired US Army
Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan told Insider. Russian President Vladimir Putin's
unprovoked war with Ukraine could come to a conclusion this year, according to a
former US Army general who warned that the Kremlin would likely turn to the dire
option of nuclear weapons if Moscow faces defeat in the conflict. Retired US
Army Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan told Insider on Tuesday that he believes that Russia
"would use a nuclear weapon before it allowed its military to be defeated in the
field."Putin has repeatedly threatened the use of nuclear weapons since he
ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but Ryan said that the Kremlin
may seriously consider using them if Ukraine was "on the verge of destroying the
Russian army in the field" or if Ukrainian forces were poised to recapture the
Russian-annexed region of Crimea. "If the Ukrainian military was having great
success in the spring, and was chopping up the Russian military and was
threatening taking back Crimea, then I think that the Russian military and
leadership would use a nuclear weapon" to not only "destroy Ukrainian military
targets," but to "convince Ukraine that continuing to fight this war would leave
Ukraine as a nuclear holocaust," Ryan said. He added that the "choices are
broad" for how Russia may use a nuclear weapon. "The level of deaths could
approach Hiroshima, or it could be far less if they only intend to fire like a
warning shot of a nuclear weapon" in a less populated area, Ryan said. This
outcome, said Ryan who served as the defense attaché to Russia for the US, would
be a "devastating" one with the potential of tens of thousands of deaths — but
it's not the most likely scenario. The most likely scenario to play out this
year, according to Ryan, is that the war will end in a stalemate after
relentless fighting and heavy losses on both sides. America's top general, Mark
Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in November that about
40,000 Ukrainian civilians had been killed and "well over" 100,000 Russian
soldiers had been "killed and wounded" in the war so far with the "same thing
probably on the Ukrainian side."The fighting of this war "at this intensity" and
death rate, Ryan told Insider, will "likely not be able to go another 12
months.""I think another year would be a good estimate as to when this war might
end or reach a stalemate," Ryan said as he noted that he has been wrong before
about his predictions about the war. However, there's no doubt that 2023 will be
a "pivotal year" for the war, said Ryan, a senior fellow at Harvard's Belfer
Center for Science and International Affairs. "Both sides need to inflict more
damage and harm on the military on the other side in order for this to come to a
conclusion," he said. Ryan explained: "Both sides are still too strong to agree
to say that they don't have a shot at winning this war. Both armies have a
chance at taking more territory, so we have to watch for the next battles to
unfold." Though Putin's forces have had a "terrible performance" in the first 10
months of the war and failed to seize Ukraine's capital of Kyiv, the Russian
army "is getting stronger" and "digging in to create better defenses in the
regions it occupies," Ryan said. The Ukrainian military, aided by the US and the
West through billions of dollars worth of weapons and equipment, "is also
getting stronger in the same ways, but it may not be getting strong enough to
kick the Russians," said Ryan.
"This is the big thing that will become more clear to us in the spring and
summer when the major fighting resumes," he said. If Ukrainian troops can force
the Russians out of their defensive positions, "then we might be moving toward a
situation where the Russian military might get destroyed or a nuclear weapon
might be used," according to Ryan, who posed the question, "Is it more dangerous
to have a tactical nuclear weapon used in Ukraine? Or is it more dangerous that
the Russian military should be defeated in the field and destroyed?"Russia
suffered a brutal defeat at the end of World War I and "it helped bring to power
the communist regime in Russia," Ryan said, adding, "Russia being destroyed —
its military being destroyed — would greatly weaken the country and cause
internal revolt." "It could lead to uncontrollable forces being unleashed in
Russia," he said. If the Ukrainians are unable to kick the Russians out, "then
we'll be in a stalemate," Ryan said, explaining, like the ending of the Korean
War, "It could happen that Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire, which
doesn't require a lot of negotiation."Last year, Ukraine launched a stunning
counteroffensive forcing Russian troops to give up large swaths of territory,
but as winter rolled in, the pace of the advance slowed. "How this war goes
isn't going to be determined at the negotiating table for a while and won't be
determined in the air by missiles and bombs," Ryan said. "But it will be
determined by the fighting on the ground."
Zelenskiy says Ukraine must 'be ready' at Belarus border
KYIV (Reuters)/Wed, January 11, 2023
Ukraine must "be ready" at its border with Russian ally Belarus even though it
sees only "powerful statements" coming from its neighbour, President Volodymyr
Zelenskiy said on Wednesday. Zelenskiy made his comments after visiting the Lviv
region, where he discussed border protection and the security situation in
northwestern Ukraine. Kyiv has warned that Russia may try to use Belarus to
launch a new ground invasion of Ukraine from the north. Zelenskiy made no
reference to such warnings in comments on the Telegram messaging app after
taking part in what he described as a coordination meeting on security matters
in the Lviv region. "We discussed state border protection, the operational
situation on the border with the Republic of Belarus, and counter-subversive
measures in these territories," he said. "We understand that apart from powerful
statements, we do not see anything powerful there, but nevertheless we must be
ready both at the border and in the regions."Zelenskiy's office released footage
of Zelenskiy at the coordination meeting, and said the president also took part
in a ceremony honouring the memory of Ukrainian soldiers killed in battle
following Russia's invasion last February. Zelenskiy did not refer on Telegram
to fighting under way in eastern Ukraine, where the Ukrainian military has
denied losing control of the town of Soledar in fierce combat.
NATO, EU to boost protection for pipelines, key
infrastructure
BRUSSELS (Reuters)/Wed, January 11, 2023
NATO and the EU are launching a task force to boost protection of critical
infrastructure in response to last year's attack on the Nord Stream gas
pipelines and Russia's "weaponising of energy," the organisations' leaders said
on Wednesday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the
sabotage of the Russia-to-Germany pipelines in the Baltic Sea last September
showed the need "to confront this new type of threat". "This is a task force
where our experts from NATO and the European Union will work hand-in-hand to
identify key threats to our critical infrastructure, to look at the strategic
vulnerabilities that we do have," she said in Brussels, speaking alongside NATO
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Western and Russian officials have traded
accusations over the Nord Stream blasts, but officials in Sweden and Denmark
investigating the attack have not named any possible culprits. Von der Leyen
said the task force would initially come up with proposals on transport, energy,
digital and space infrastructure. Western officials say the Nord Stream attacks
and sudden cutoffs of gas from Russia since the start of Moscow's war in Ukraine
have highlighted how dependent many EU and NATO members are on key
infrastructure and Russian energy. Stoltenberg, speaking just before meeting von
der Leyen's Commission to discuss security, said the task force would be part of
increased cooperation between NATO and the EU. "Resilience and the protection of
critical infrastructure are a key part of our joint efforts, as we have seen
both with President Putin's weaponising of energy and ... the sabotage of the
North Stream pipelines," he said. "We want to look together at how to make our
critical infrastructure, technology and supply chains more resilient to
potential threats and to take action to mitigate potential vulnerabilities."
‘Putin’s Chef’ Humiliated by His Own Side After Bragging of Wagner Victory
Allison Quinn/The Daily Beast./January 11, 2023
The Kremlin finally seems to be trying to take Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin
down a notch after the businessman has spent months using his band of
mercenaries and ex-convicts to steal the spotlight in Russia’s war against
Ukraine. A simmering feud between Prigozhin’s outfit and the regular Russian
army spilled out into the open Wednesday, as Russia’s Defense Ministry publicly
rebuffed claims made by “Putin’s chef” about a Wagner win in Ukraine’s Donetsk
region. In an announcement late Tuesday, Prigozhin gleefully claimed his men had
taken control of a salt mine town that Russian forces are hoping to use as a
stepping stone to gain control of the highly coveted city of Bakhmut, a
Ukrainian stronghold for months. “Wagner units have taken control of all the
territory of Soledar,” Prigozhin said through his press service. “I want to
emphasize that no units other than the Wagner fighters took part in the assault
on Soledar,” he said. While Ukrainian authorities denied Prigozhin’s claim and
said battles were still underway in the town—and that the selfie the Wagner boss
posted supposedly from Soledar was not even in Soledar—Russia’s two dueling
armies devolved into their own war within a war.
Russia’s Defense Ministry shot down Prigozhin’s boast that his own men had
single-handedly brought Putin a win, instead confirming Ukraine’s announcement
that fighting was still underway in the town. Moreover, defense officials
suggested Russian airborne units and assault teams are leading the charge. The
Defense Ministry made no mention of Wagner whatsoever. The rebuff comes as
praise for Prigozhin’s outfit hit a fever pitch among pro-Kremlin figures, and
the notorious mercenary group threatened to outshine Putin’s regular soldiers on
the battlefield. Wagner Boss Thinks Military Brass Are Out to Get Him. “Why is
Wagner so successful, more successful than even the Russian army?” pro-Kremlin
political analyst Sergei Markov wrote on Telegram early Wednesday. He went on to
praise Prigozhin personally, calling him “very creative,” a “workaholic,” and
someone who “comes up with bright, novel solutions.” “Prigozhin’s criminal past
is a plus now, because world politics is criminalized,” he said, calling
Prigozhin and Wagner “a national treasure.” Speculation about Prigozhin possibly
vying for an official post in Russia’s government has mounted in recent months
as his PR campaign for Wagner has gone into overdrive, with many wondering if
he’s made it his personal mission to “win the damn war” for Putin so he could
demand something in return. Despite Prigozhin butting heads with top defense
officials and government officials, the Kremlin has largely allowed him to do as
he pleases—but they seem to have fired their first warning shot this week in a
sign of things to come. Putin’s appointment on Tuesday of a controversial
colonel-general as the new ground forces chief was done “as a snub to Prigozhin,”
a source close to Russia’s General Staff told the outlet iStories. Both
Prigozhin and his fellow hardliner Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov had publicly
blamed Colonel-General Alexander Lapin for setbacks on the battlefield. Lapin’s
return, the source said, “is an answer [to Prigozhin] along the lines of ‘We
don’t leave our own behind either.’”
Another country Putin thought was his friend
has snubbed Russia by refusing to host its military for routine exercises
Sophia Ankel/Business Insider/January 11, 2023
Armenia's leader has canceled Russian military drills planned in the country for
later this year.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said the drills were "inappropriate in the
current situation," AP reported.
Pashinyan has accused Russia of failing to help in its ongoing conflict with
Azerbaijan. Armenia has refused to host Russia's military for routine exercises,
another snub from a country President Vladimir Putin thought was an ally. On
Tuesday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that he had canceled
military drills planned by the Collective Security Treaty Organization — a
Russian-dominated alliance of post-Soviet nations — later this year, the
Associated Press reported. "At least this year, these
drills won't take place," he said at a press conference, calling the drills
"inappropriate in the current situation."
"Russia's military presence in Armenia not only fails to guarantee its security,
but it raises security threats for Armenia," Pashinyan added, according to AP.
The Armenian leader also criticized Russian peacekeepers' failure to take a more
active role around the disputed separatist region of Nagorno-Karabak, saying
that he will seek support from the US and the European Union to help ease the
tensions with Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh has been
under the control of ethnic Armenian forces since a separatist war there ended
in 1994. Starting last month, Azerbaijani activists have been blocking a free
corridor linking Armenia to the region. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov played
down the quarrel, calling the country "our very close ally," according to AP.
Pashinyan's latest move is another sign of tensions growing among
Russia's allies. In a CSTO summit last November, Putin was repeatedly snubbed by
Pashinyan, including when the Armenian prime minister refused to be photographed
in close proximity to him. Other members of CSTO include Belarus, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Azerbaijan is not part of the group. Putin has
become increasingly isolated on the world stage over his full-scale invasion of
Ukraine.
India's prime minister criticized the Ukraine invasion directly to Putin in
September, while the Russian president also admitted last year that China has
"questions and concerns" about its actions in Ukraine.
‘What madness looks like’: Russia intensifies
Bakhmut attack
AP/January 11, 2023
Wagner units took control of the entire territory of Soledar
KYIV, Ukraine: Russian forces are escalating their onslaught against Ukrainian
positions around the wrecked city of Bakhmut, Ukrainian officials said, bringing
new levels of death and devastation in the grinding, monthslong battle for
control of eastern Ukraine that is part of Moscow’s wider war.
“Everything is completely destroyed. There is almost no life left,” Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky said late Monday of the scene around Bakhmut and
the nearby Donetsk province city of Soledar, known for salt mining and
processing.
“The whole land near Soledar is covered with the corpses of the occupiers and
scars from the strikes,” Zelensky said. “This is what madness looks like.”
Late Tuesday, the head of the Wagner Group, a Russian private military
contractor, Dmitry Prigozhin, claimed in audio reports posted on his Russian
social media platform that his forces had seized control of Soledar, with
battles continuing in a “cauldron” in the city’s center. Ukrainian officials did
not comment on the claim, and The Associated Press was unable to verify it.
The UK Defense Ministry said earlier that Russian troops alongside soldiers from
the Wagner Group had advanced in Soledar and “are likely in control of most of
the settlement.”
The ministry said that taking Soledar, 10 kilometers (6 miles) north of Bakhmut,
was likely Moscow’s immediate military objective and part of a strategy to
encircle Bakhmut. But it added that “Ukrainian forces maintain stable defensive
lines in depth and control over supply routes” in the area.
A Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Wagner Group
“has moved from being a niche sideshow of Russia’s war to a major component of
the conflict,” adding that its forces now make up as much as a quarter of
Russian combatants.
The Kremlin, whose invasion of its neighbor 10 1/2 months ago has suffered
numerous reversals, is hungry for victories. Russia illegally annexed Donetsk
and three other Ukrainian provinces in September, but its troops have struggled
to advance.
After Ukrainian forces recaptured the southern city of Kherson in November, the
battle heated up around Bakhmut.
Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Malyar, said Russia has thrown “a large
number of storm groups” into the fight for the city. “The enemy is advancing
literally on the bodies of their own soldiers and is massively using artillery,
rocket launchers and mortars, hitting their own troops,” she said.
Pavlo Kyrylenko, the Donetsk region’s Kyiv-appointed governor, on Tuesday
described the Russian attacks on Soledar and Bakhmut as relentless.
“The Russian army is reducing Ukrainian cities to rubble using all kinds of
weapons in their scorched-earth tactics,” Kyrylenko said in televised remarks.
“Russia is waging a war without rules, resulting in civilian deaths and
suffering.”
Wounded soldiers arrive around the clock for emergency treatment at a Ukrainian
medical stabilization center near the front line around Bakhmut. Medics fought
for 30 minutes Monday to save a soldier, but his injuries were too severe.
Another soldier suffered a head injury after a fragment pierced his helmet.
Medics quickly stabilized him enough to transfer him to a military hospital.
“We fight to the end to save a life,” Kostyantyn Vasylkevich, a surgeon and the
center’s coordinator, told The Associated Press. “Of course, it hurts when it is
not possible to save them.”
The Moscow-backed leader of the occupied areas of Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, told
Russian state TV control over the city would create “good prospects” for taking
over Bakhmut, as well as Siversk, a town further north where Ukrainian
fortifications “are also quite serious.”
An exceptional feature of the fighting near Bakhmut is that some of it has taken
place around entrances to disused salt mine tunnels which run for some 200
kilometers (120 miles), the British intelligence report noted.
“Both sides are likely concerned that (the tunnels) could be used for
infiltration behind their lines,” it said.
In Russia, two signs emerged Tuesday that officials were grappling with the
military shortcomings revealed during the conflict in Ukraine.
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, whose performance has been fiercely criticized
in some Russian circles but who has retained Russian President Vladimir Putin’s
confidence, said Tuesday that his military would use its experience in Ukraine
to improve combat training.
Military communications and control systems will be improved using artificial
intelligence, Shoigu said, and troops will be given better tactical gear and
equipment.
The second indication of trouble involves Russia’s production of weapons and
other supplies its military needs for the fight in Ukraine. The deputy head of
Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, warned that officials who failed to
meet deadlines for such items could face criminal charges.
Putin appointed Medvedev last month to head a new commission tasked with trying
to solve the military’s supply problems. Numerous reports have suggested Russia
is running low on certain weapons and was sending some troops into battle with
insufficient equipment and clothing.
Part of the Kremlin’s challenge is keeping up with the weapons and supplies that
Western allies are providing to Ukraine.
The Patriot surface-to-air guided missile defense system is one of the weapons
Ukraine is about to receive, and the Pentagon announced Tuesday that about 100
Ukrainian troops will head to Oklahoma’s Fort Sill as soon as next week to begin
training on it. That will help Ukraine protect itself against Russian missile
attacks. The United States pledged one Patriot battery last month, and Germany
has pledged an additional system.
Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, announced Tuesday while visiting
Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, that her country would also provide 40
million euros ($43 million) to help with demining, energy infrastructure and
Internet connections, German news agency dpa reported.
Several front-line cities in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces
have witnessed intense fighting in recent months.
Together, the provinces make up the Donbas, a broad industrial region bordering
Russia that Putin identified as a focus from the war’s outset and where
Moscow-backed separatists have fought since 2014.
Russia’s grinding eastern offensive captured almost all of Luhansk during the
summer. Donetsk escaped the same fate, and the Russian military subsequently
poured manpower and resources around Bakhmut. Taking Bakhmut would disrupt
Ukraine’s supply lines and open a route for Russian forces to press toward
Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, key Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk.
Like Mariupol and other contested cities, Bakhmut endured a long siege without
water and power even before Moscow launched massive strikes to take out public
utilities across Ukraine.
Kyrylenko, the Donetsk region’s governor, estimated more than two months ago
that 90 percent of Bakhmut’s prewar population of over 70,000 had fled since
Moscow focused on seizing the entire Donbas.
Ukraine’s presidential office said at least four civilians were killed and
another 30 wounded in Russian shelling between Monday and Tuesday.
Vitaliy Kim, the governor of the southern Mykolaiv region, said Russian forces
shelled the port of Ochakiv and the area around it late Monday and again early
Tuesday. He said 15 people, including a 2-year-old child, were wounded.
Report: Oil price cap takes small slice of Russia war chest
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) /Wed, January 11, 2023
A price cap and European Union embargo on most Russian oil have cut into
Moscow's revenue from fossil fuels, but the Kremlin is still earning substantial
cash to fund its war in Ukraine because the $60-per-barrel cap was “too
lenient," researchers said Wednesday. The combination of the cap by the Group of
Seven major democracies and the EU ban are costing Russia an estimated 160
million euros ($171.9 million) per day, the Helsinki-based Centre for Research
on Energy and Clean Air said in a study of the first weeks of the sanctions,
which took effect Dec. 5. But the group's figures showed that Russia was still
taking in 640 million euros a day from fossil fuels, down from 1 billion euros
daily from March to May 2022 just after the country invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.
Russia would lose an additional 120 million a day starting Feb. 5, when the EU
bars imports of refined oil products such as diesel fuel, for which Russia is a
major supplier. That would drop Moscow's earnings to 520 million euros a day by
February. The group said Russia still managed to make 3.1 billion euros in
revenue shipping oil under the price cap, reaping 2 billion euros in tax income.
Lowering the cap to $25-$35 per barrel would almost completely eliminate the tax
income by putting the price much closer to Russia's cost of production. The
current price cap is above the market price for Russian oil and remains in the
range of what Moscow needs to balance its budget. Western governments have
struggled to find a way to cut into the fossil fuel income that is the main
funding source for Russia's government budget and its war against Ukraine. Early
rounds of sanctions mostly avoided blocking oil and natural gas shipments.
That's because the European Union had been heavily dependent on Russian fossil
fuels to run its economy and because sharply higher energy prices early in the
war helped send inflation through the roof in Europe and the United States. The
Group of Seven major democracies came up with the price cap as a solution to
keep Russian oil flowing to other parts of the world and avoid sharply higher
energy prices while still cutting into the Kremlin's income. The cap is enforced
by barring insurers, mostly based in the West, from handling Russian oil
shipments priced above the cap. The EU oil embargo blocks the bulk of Russian
oil — that coming by tanker. Lowering the cap could have unpredictable effects
because President Vladimir Putin has said Russia will not sell oil to countries
obeying the cap, a threat which has not materialized because the cap is above
the market price. Oil markets, however, are now less focused on a potential loss
of Russian oil than on weak demand from a slowing global economy, and prices
have fallen. The research center compiling the estimates called for restrictions
on the sales of old tankers to prevent Russia, its allies and related traders
from assembling a replacement fleet to circumvent the oil price cap and to
strengthen penalties for dodging the cap by increasing penalties.
Israeli president invites Turkey's Erdogan to visit,
receives envoy
JERUSALEM (Reuters) Wed, January 11, 2023
Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Wednesday invited his Turkish counterpart
President Tayyip Erdogan to visit the country as he received Ankara's new
ambassador in another token of the countries' recently warming ties. Last year,
Herzog, whose role is largely ceremonial, was the first Israeli leader to visit
Turkey since 2008, after the two countries began restoring relations and ending
a more than a decade-old diplomatic rift. They agreed to mutually appoint
ambassadors in August and, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won
an election in November, he and Erdogan agreed to keep improving ties. "I am
sure we will all work to strengthen the countries' relations," Herzog said.
Netanyahu's return to power at the head of a nationalist-religious government in
December has rattled Palestinians and Western and Arab allies who fear it could
heighten tensions in the Middle East. Turkey last week joined a chorus of
condemnation of a visit by Israel's new far-right National Security Minister
Itamar Ben-Gvir to the sensitive Al Aqsa mosque complex in Jerusalem, Islam's
third holiest site and Judaism's most sacred.
Palestinian killed in West Bank during Israeli
arrest raid
JERUSALEM (AP)/Wed, January 11, 2023
The Israeli army killed a 21-year-old Palestinian militant on Wednesday during
an arrest raid in the West Bank, Palestinian health officials said, the latest
deadly confrontation as violence continues to surge in the occupied territory.
The Palestinian Health Ministry said that Ahmed Abu Junaid died several
hours after he was struck in the head by a bullet during an Israeli incursion
into the hardscrabble Balata refugee camp in the city of Nablus, in the northern
West Bank. The Israeli army reported several arrest
raids across the West Bank early Wednesday. In the Balata refugee camp, a
gunfight erupted between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces, the
army said, acknowledging that a Palestinian was hit.
Palestinian health officials said that Israeli special forces surrounded a house
in the congested camp during the arrest operation and unleashed live fire, tear
gas and stun grenades at a crowd of young men.
The Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade — an armed militia affiliated with Fatah, the
secular political party that controls the Palestinian Authority — claimed Abu
Junaid as a fighter. Pictures of him brandishing a rifle were shared widely on
social media. His death brings the toll of Palestinians killed by Israeli fire
so far in 2023 to five. Israeli military raids have
surged in the West Bank since last March, when the army began an operation to
curb a wave of Palestinian attacks within Israel last spring that killed 19
Israelis. At least 146 Palestinians were killed by Israeli security forces in
2022 in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, according to Israeli human-rights
group B’Tselem. Last year’s death toll was the highest since 2004, during a wave
of intense violence known as the Second Intifada, or Palestinain uprising.
The Israeli army says most of the Palestinians killed have been
militants. But stone-throwing youths protesting the incursions and others not
involved in confrontations have also been killed.
Israel says the raids are meant to dismantle militant networks and thwart future
attacks. The Palestinians see them as further entrenchment of Israel’s 55-year,
open-ended occupation of the West Bank. Israel
captured the West Bank, along with east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, in the
1967 Mideast war and the Palestinians seek those territories for a future state.
U.S. seeks Canadian help to ease crowding at U.S.-Mexico
border
Lizbeth Diaz/Reuters/Tue, January 10, 2023
The United States is looking to Canada to help cope with the growing number of
migrants at the United States' border with Mexico, a State Department
spokeswoman said on Tuesday. A possible trilateral agreement with Canada, the
United States and Mexico was on the table as the three countries met in Mexico
for the North American Leaders' Summit, spokewsoman Kristina Rosales told
Reuters. The agreement would help thousands immigrate through legal channels,
without having to put their lives at risk at the hands of human traffickers,
Rosales said. "Canada has its own specific programs for refuge and migration,"
Rosales said, telling Reuters ahead of the trilateral talks that the countries
would discuss Canada's involvement. No such agreement was made public
immediately after the talks between U.S. President Joe Biden, Canadian Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ended
on Tuesday. U.S. authorities detained 2.2 million migrants at the border with
Mexico in fiscal year 2022, a record not seen since World War II. Rosales also
said the United States is considering including more nationalities to enter the
country by air while expelling those crossing over land under an order known as
Title 42. The order, launched in October for Venezuelans, was expanded to Cuban,
Nicaraguan and Haitian migrants last week. Encounters of Venezuelans at the
border dropped about 90% in December, and similar drops are expected for other
migrants in the program. "If we see that we have to increase the number of those
eligible for humanitarian parole per month and include other nationalities, we
will consider it," Rosales added. Mexico's Lopez Obrador said Tuesday the nation
"celebrated" the U.S. decision to award humanitarian parole and that he believed
"that this plan will be extended to benefit other countries." The United States
has in recent months seen a significant increase in migrants reaching the
country by sea from Caribbean countries such as Cuba and Haiti. Rosales said
those who arrived in the United States by sea "unfortunately will not be able to
qualify" for humanitarian parole.
Rosales added that the U.S. government is seeking to broaden legal methods of
immigrating and sway potential migrants from paying human traffickers. "We want
to broaden the legal channels so that people can apply directly from their cell
phones," Rosales said.
Top Turkey, Syria, Russia diplomats to meet soon -Turkish
official
Orhan Coskun/ANKARA (Reuters)/January 11, 2023
Turkey, Syria and Russia aim to schedule a meeting of their foreign ministers
this month and possibly before the middle of next week, though no date or
location has yet been chosen, a senior Turkish official said on Wednesday. Such
a meeting would mark the highest-level talks between Ankara and Damascus since
the Syrian war began in 2011 and signal a further thaw in ties. NATO member
Turkey has played a major part in the conflict, backing President Bashar al-Assad's
opponents and sending troops into the north. Moscow is Assad's main ally and
Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged reconciliation with Ankara. The
official, who was not authorised to speak publicly, said the meeting could
happen either before of after Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is
scheduled to meet U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the United States on
Jan. 18. "Discussions are continuing (and) an exact date is not yet set. There
are no problems with the meeting, they are just working on timing," the official
said, adding it would happen either in Moscow or another location. The Turkish
and Syrian defence ministers held landmark talks in Moscow last month to discuss
border security and other issues. Last week, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan
said he may meet Assad after a trilateral foreign ministers meeting. Syrian
pro-government newspaper Al-Watan reported on Monday there were no specific
dates set for the trilateral meeting. Moscow has not commented on meeting plans.
The conflict in Syria, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people,
displaced millions and drawn in regional and world powers, has ground on into a
second decade, although fighting has cooled. With backing from Russia and Iran,
Assad's government has recovered most Syrian territory. Turkish-backed
opposition fighters still control a pocket in the northwest, and Kurdish
fighters backed by the United States also control territory near the Turkish
border. Washington does not support countries re-establishing ties with Assad.
It has partnered with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which includes
the YPG militia, in fighting Islamic State in Syria. The meeting of top
diplomats would shift talks toward political issues and away from security, and
set the stage for Erdogan and Assad to meet, the senior official said. A second
senior Turkish official told Reuters that Ankara seeks the safe return of Syrian
refugees and cooperation with Damascus in targeting the YPG, the primary target
of its ongoing cross-border military strikes.
US flights grounded over computer outage, no sign of attack
till now
Associated Press/January 11, 2023
A computer outage at the Federal Aviation Administration brought flights to a
standstill across the U.S. on Wednesday, with hundreds of delays quickly
cascading through the system at airports nationwide.
The FAA ordered all U.S. flights to delay departures until at least 9 a.m.
Eastern, though airlines said they were aware of the situation and had already
begun grounding flights. Delays and cancellations accelerated rapidly, with more
than 3,700 stuck on the ground around 8:30 a.m. Eastern, more than all the
delayed flights for the entirety of the previous day, according to the flight
tracking website FlightAware. More than 550 have been cancelled, and that number
was ticking higher quickly. Those numbers are likely
to grow, and the groundings impact almost all aircraft, including shipping and
passenger flights. More than 21,000 flights were scheduled to take off in the
U.S. today, mostly domestic trips, and about 1,840 international flights
expected to fly to the U.S., according to aviation data firm Cirium. Some
medical flights can get clearance and the outage is not impacting military
operations. Early Wednesday, flights for the U.S.
military's Air Mobility Command had not been impacted, said Air Force Col.
Damien Pickart, a spokesman for Air Mobility Command is responsible for all the
troop movement and supply flights, such as the C-17s that carry the president's
motorcade vehicles when he travels, but also all the flights that transport
troops from one base to another. Air Mobility Command was working with the FAA
on the issue.
While the White House initially said that there is no evidence of a cyberattack,
President Joe Biden said "we don't know" and told reporters he's directed the
Department of Transportation to investigate the cause of the disruption.
President Joe Biden addressed the FAA issue Wednesday before leaving the White
House to accompany his wife to a medical procedure at Walter Reed National
Military Medical Center outside of Washington. He said he had just been briefed
by Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who told him they still had not
identified what went wrong.
"I just spoke to Buttigieg. They don't know what the cause is. But I was on the
phone with him about 10 minutes," Biden said. "I told him to report directly to
me when they find out. Air traffic can still land safely, just not take off
right now. We don't know what the cause of it is."
Buttigieg said in a tweet that he is in touch with the FAA and monitoring the
situation. The FBI did not immediately respond to a request seeking comment.
Most delays were concentrated along the East Coast, but were beginning to spread
west. Inbound international flights into Miami International Airport continued
to land, but all departures have been delayed since 6:30 a.m., said airport
spokesman Greg Chin. The FAA said it was working on
restoring its Notice to Air Missions System. "We are performing final validation
checks and reloading the system now," the FAA said. "Operations across the
National Airspace System are affected."The agency said that some functions are
beginning to come back on line, but that "National Airspace System operations
remain limited." United Airlines said that it had
temporarily delayed all domestic flights and would issue an update once it
learned more from the FAA. American Airlines said that it was closely monitoring
the situation.
Julia Macpherson was on a United Airlines flight from Sydney to Los Angeles on
Wednesday when she learned of possible delays.
"As I was up in the air I got news from my friend who was also traveling
overseas that there was a power outage," said Macpherson, who was returning to
Florida from Hobart, Tasmania. Once she lands in Los Angeles, she still has a
connection in Denver on her flight to Jacksonville, Florida. She said there have
been no announcements on the flight about the FAA issue. Macpherson said she had
already experienced a delay in her travels because her original flight from
Melbourne to San Francisco was canceled and she rebooked a flight from Sydney to
Los Angeles. The FAA is working to restore what is known as the Notice to Air
Missions System. Before commencing a flight, pilots
are required to consult NOTAMs, or Notices to Air Missions, which list potential
adverse impacts on flights, from runway construction to the potential for icing.
The system used to be telephone-based, with pilots calling dedicated flight
service stations for the information, but has now moved online. According FAA
advisories, the NOTAM system failed at 8:28pm eastern on Tuesday preventing new
or amended notices from being distributed to pilots. The FAA resorted to a
telephone hotline in an effort to keep departures flying overnight, but as
daytime traffic picked up it overwhelmed the telephone backup system.
Air Force spokeswoman Ann Stefanek said the U.S. military flights were not
impacted because the military has its own NOTAMS system separate from the FAA
system and the military's system was not affected by the outage. European
flights into the U.S. appeared to be largely unaffected. Irish carrier Aer
Lingus said services to the U.S. continue, and Dublin Airport's website showed
that its flights to Newark, Boston, Chicago and Los Angeles were running on
schedule. "Aer Lingus plan to operate all
transatlantic flights as scheduled today," the carrier said in a prepared
statement. "We will continue to monitor but we do not anticipate any disruption
to our services arising from the technical issue in the United States." This is
just the latest headache for travelers in the U.S. who faced flight
cancellations over the holidays amid winter storms and a breakdown with staffing
technology at Southwest Airlines. They also ran into long lines, lost baggage,
and cancellations and delays over the summer as travel demand roared back from
the COVID-19 pandemic and ran into staffing cutbacks at airports and airlines in
the U.S. and Europe. The FAA said that it would provide frequent updates as it
made progress.
Six lightly wounded in knife attack at Paris
train station
Agence France Presse/January 11/2023
Iran’s government appointed Mohammad Reza Farzin as the new governor of the
Central Bank of Ir
Six people were lightly wounded on Wednesday by a man wielding a knife at the
busy Gare du Nord station in Paris, police and prosecutors said. The man was
arrested by police at the station -- a busy commuter hub which also serves as a
departure point for trains to northern France, London and northern Europe --
after they opened fire and wounded him, said a police source, who asked not to
be named. Police were treating the stabbings as a
criminal act, not a terrorist attack, a source close to the case said. The
attacker sustained a life-threatening chest injury as police fired several
rounds, the source said.
An off-duty police officer was the first to act against the attacker, Le
Parisien daily said. "An individual injured several people this morning at the
Gare du Nord," Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin wrote on Twitter.
"He was quickly neutralized. Thank you to the police for their effective
and courageous response".
The incident cased major delays to trains at the station in the early morning
rush, according to the live departure board of operator SNCF.
Police cordoned off the station, and set up large white curtains around
the attack scene. The Gare du Nord is one of the world's busiest train stations
with 700,000 travelers per day. The attacker's motive was not immediately clear.
France remains on a state of heightened security alert after a spate of deadly
attacks by Islamist radicals, and others, since 2015. In December, a suspected
gunman killed three Kurds in Paris. The 69-year old
suspect confessed to a "pathological" hatred for foreigners.
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U.S. Should Sanction Tehran’s New Central Banker
Behnam Ben Taleblu and Saeed Ghasseminejad/FDD-Policy Brief/January 11/2023
Iran’s government appointed Mohammad Reza Farzin as the new governor of the
Central Bank of Iran (CBI) in late December as the country’s national currency,
the rial, plummeted against the U.S. dollar. U.S. Treasury officials have called
the CBI Tehran’s “arm of terror finance,” a role it will continue to play under
Farzin, who has spent much of his career working at financial institutions
sanctioned by Washington.
Farzin, 57, replaces Ali Salehabadi, a younger functionary and former Export
Development Bank of Iran CEO who was CBI chief from October 2021 through
December 2022. Some analysts believed that Salehabadi could help steer President
Ebrahim Raisi’s government through multiple economic crises. Appointed by the
president, the CBI chief has comparatively less autonomy than his counterparts
abroad but can influence monetary policy. Already, Farzin has reportedly
injected significant sums of foreign exchange into the Iranian economy to help
prop up the rial’s exchange rate across Iran’s complicated and fractured foreign
currency markets.
Farzin previously served under former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as deputy
minister of economic affairs and finance and later as president and chairman of
the board of the National Development Fund of Iran (NDF). Prior to his
appointment as CBI governor, Farzin served as managing director of Bank Melli.
From 2013 through 2021, Farzin was the head of the board of directors of Iran’s
Karafarin Bank. Farzin was its managing director for a two-year period
(2019-2021).
Farzin’s resume reads as a veritable list of sanctioned Iranian financial
institutions. Bank Melli was sanctioned from October 2007 through January 2016
under counterproliferation authorities and designated again in November 2018
under counterterrorism authorities. Karafarin Bank, partially owned by Supreme
Leader Ali Khamenei’s business empire, was sanctioned in October 2020 using a
broad executive order enabling penalties against key sectors of Iran’s economy.
The NDF was sanctioned in September 2020 by the U.S. Treasury Department using
counterterrorism authorities at the same time CBI was sanctioned. According to
Treasury, the CBI has “facilitated the transfer of several billion of U.S.
dollars and euros” to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force and
“hundreds of millions” to Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics,
both of which are sanctioned by the United States.
Prior to sanctioning the CBI as a whole in 2020, the Treasury Department
targeted then CBI Governor Valiollah Seif in 2018 as well as an assistant
director of the CBI’s international department, and later several international
department directors. However, Treasury failed to sanction Seif’s replacement,
Nasser Hemmati, despite Hemmati’s track record of working across sanctioned
entities tied to support for terrorism. By sanctioning Farzin, the Biden
administration can correct this error.
Authorities available for Farzin’s designation include both Executive Order
13224, which targets those providing material support for terrorism (and was
used to designate Seif), and potentially Executive Order 13876, which targets
both the supreme leader’s network as well as any “person appointed to a position
as a state official of Iran.”
Less than a month into his tenure as CBI governor, Farzin has already raised red
flags. In a recent trip to Qatar, the new CBI chief emphasized the importance of
tightening monetary and banking ties between Tehran and Doha, both of which are
problematic jurisdictions for terror finance.
By sanctioning Farzin, the Biden administration can send a message that rotating
executives cannot mask the CBI’s role in terror finance. It would also warn any
prospective CBI governors that so long as Iran remains a state sponsor of
terrorism and the central bank remains an active underwriter of terror, the job
will be met with tough restrictive measures from Washington.
**Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), where Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial
economics advisor. They both contribute to FDD’s Center on Economic and
Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from Saeed, Behnam, and CEFP, please
subscribe HERE. Follow Saeed on Twitter @SGhasseminejad. Follow FDD on Twitter
@FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research
institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
‘Adopt’ an Iranian Political Prisoner to Save a Life ...The
regime kills much more easily in darkness.
Saeed Ghasseminejad and Toby Dershowitz/The National Interest/January 11/2023
Three moths into the latest round of protests in Iran, at least 100 protesters
are at risk of execution. The Islamic Republic of Iran has already executed four
protesters and arrested more than 18,000 others, including students, physicians,
shopkeepers, and mothers. Their plight demands sustained outside pressure on the
regime from the global human rights community, average citizens, and certainly,
lawmakers.
The regime is implementing a no-holds-barred policy against protesters. Members
of Iran’s parliament, judiciary officials, and Friday prayer imams threaten
demonstrators and prisoners. Tehran has prosecuted detainees on trumped-up
charges like “waging war against God” and “corruption on Earth” that the regime
deploys against Iranians who challenge its legitimacy or radical Islamist
ideology. These carry the death penalty.
So far, the Islamic Republic has executed Majid Reza Rahnavard, Mohsen Shekari,
Mohammad Hosseini, and Mohammad Mehdi Karami. From court date to punishment, the
legal process for the executions took a very short time. The executions came
after show trials using coerced confessions elicited under torture, a frequent
tactic of the regime. Pictures of Rahnavard before his execution show a severe
injury on his hand that he sustained while in custody.
Furthermore, thousands of imprisoned protesters and dissidents face the prospect
of long-term prison sentences. Fatemeh Sepehri, a dissident who previously
served nine months in jail after calling for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s
resignation in 2019, was arrested on September 21 and has been in jail since
then. Before her arrest, in a TV interview, Sepehri had said, “Wake up, people
of Iran! Why are we still silent? What are we waiting for?”
Many journalists have also been imprisoned by the regime. Niloufar Hamedi, who
broke Mahsa Amini’s story, and Nazila Maroufian, who interviewed Mahsa’s father,
are both in prison. The regime has falsely accused Hamedi and her colleague of
being foreign agents. Without international pressure, Sepeheri, Hamedi,
Maroufian, and others may wrongly spend years in prison.
This is already happening to others. The revolutionary court sentenced dissident
writer and scholar Mojgan Kavousi to five years and five months in prison for
insulting the supreme leader and other charges. Saeed Sheikh, a lawyer, has been
sentenced to three years in prison for what the court refers to as propaganda
against the Islamic Republic. Sheikh was arrested in front of the Iran Bar
Association in Tehran while protesting the crackdown on peaceful protesters.
Amir Reza Hosseini, arrested in October during a student protest, was charged
with “assembly and collusion against national security” and sentenced to
forty-one months in prison. Saeedeh Mohammadi was sentenced to five years in
prison for “assembly and collusion” and “propaganda against the Islamic
Republic.” She was arrested in September after participating in a peaceful
protest.
Among the prisoners at immediate risk of execution is nineteen-year-old Mohammad
Boroughani. Judge Abolghassem Salavati, known as “the hanging judge” and
sanctioned by the United States for human rights violations, sentenced
Boroughani to death for allegedly attacking the city hall of Pakdasht and
injuring a government official during the protests. The judiciary has charged
another prisoner, Saeed Shirazi, with corruption on Earth, which carries a death
sentence. The regime did not accuse him of killing or injuring anyone. His
alleged crime? Sharing a post on Instagram that showed how to make a Molotov
cocktail. A Google search would yield a similar result.
The Islamic Republic is known for its excessive use of the death penalty.
Between October 2021 and October 2022, Iran had the highest per capita execution
rate in the world, killing 528 people by execution. The most notorious
executions were the thousands of political prisoners killed in 1988. Ebrahim
Raisi, today the sitting president of the Islamic Republic, sat as a member of
the so-called “death committees” that sentenced the political prisoners to
death.
Washington must intervene. Shining a light on individual political prisoners can
deter the regime from going on an execution spree. European lawmakers have begun
a “political adoption” campaign in which they spotlight Iranian political
prisoners, particularly ones who unjustly face the death penalty. In so doing,
the parliamentarians seek to ensure that Iranian voices and stories echo from
world capitals to Tehran. Members of parliament in Germany, Austria, Sweden, and
Belgium have participated in this campaign. Nine Canadian Parliamentarians have
also adopted nineteen political prisoners.
Some argue that political adoption of prisoners by high-ranking officials of the
“Great Satan” would endanger those prisoners. This concern is unwarranted. Those
who receive international attention often receive better treatment from the
regime. For example, noted human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh has reportedly
been on medical leave from prison for an extended period. International pressure
has likely deterred the regime from returning her to jail to serve what was an
unjust sentence to begin with. In contrast, other prominent political prisoners
such as Manouchehr Bakhtiari and Soheila Hejab, who have not received
significant international media coverage, are targets of constant harassment in
prison. Both were beaten, despite their poor health. International pressure
works.
Similarly, the judiciary recently sentenced twenty-two-year-old Mahan
Sadrat-Madani to death for waging war against God by allegedly pulling out a
knife during protests. His execution was halted after a massive public campaign
to save his life. Mahan and his family deny the allegations.
The regime also stopped the execution of Saman Seydi, a singer, whom the regime
accused of waging war against God for allegedly firing three pellets in the air
during protests. There was no accusation of harm done to anyone.
The Islamic Republic’s judiciary often prevents protesters from choosing their
own lawyers. Sometimes protesters are even precluded from speaking with their
lawyers. Moreover, their lawyers are not always provided access to the cases
against their clients. The revolutionary court told Hossein Ismail Beigi,
Seydi’s lawyer, that Seydi does not need him as the court appointed him a
lawyer. Judge Salavati had sentenced Seydi to death, but an upper court sent the
case back to Salavati after a public outcry.
The fifty-three-year-old Hamid Ghareh Hasanlou, a doctor and philanthropist, was
sentenced to death in December for his unsubstantiated role in the death of a
member of the Basij, a terrorist organization sanctioned by the United States.
The Iranian authorities reportedly beat Hamid in front of his teenage daughter.
They threatened to kill her parents if she revealed what she saw. In custody,
five of his ribs broke as they tortured him into falsely confessing. His lung
was punctured as well. There are reports that the sentence has been withdrawn
after a campaign by physicians around the world.
All three could have faced Mohsen Shekari’s fate absent international outrage.
The rushed trials, lack of credible evidence, widespread use of torture,
depravation of the right for prisoners to choose their lawyers, and the denial
of regular contact between protesters and their families underscore the regime’s
aims: terrorizing its population into submission through intimidation. In the
words of dissident wrestler Navid Afkari, who was unjustly executed in 2020 on
trumped-up charges, the judiciary is looking for a neck for its noose.
The regime kills much more easily in darkness. Members of Congress tweet that
they stand with the Iranian people. “We hear you. We see you,” they say. It’s
time for them to build upon this rhetoric by naming those Iranian prisoners whom
they hear and see—and whom the regime wants to stifle. By adopting a political
prisoner, members of Congress can save many lives.
Toby Dershowitz is senior vice president for government relations and strategy
at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Saeed Ghasseminejad is
senior Iran and financial economics advisor. Follow them on Twitter @TobyDersh
and @SGhasseminejad. FDD is a Washington, DC-based nonpartisan research
institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
*Editors note: This article was updated on January 9, 2023, to reflect the
additional executions that have taken place in Iran.
Strategy for a New Comprehensive U.S. Policy on Iran
Mark Dubowitz/Orde Kittrie/FDD Monograph/January 11/2023
FDD monograph edited by Mark Dubowitz and Orde Kittrie
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) has developed a comprehensive
plan for American policymakers and allies to support the Iranian people and
confront the ongoing threats from the Islamic Republic of Iran. The strategy
explains how Washington can deploy multiple elements of national power,
providing specific and actionable recommendations for relevant agencies of the
U.S. government.
The new revolution in Iran, combined with the regime’s military support to
Russia, gives President Joe Biden and bipartisan majorities in Congress an
opportunity to chart a new course. President Biden has recognized this
imperative, vowing “we’re going to free Iran.”1 Former Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton recently said, “I would not be negotiating with Iran on anything
right now, including the nuclear agreement.”2 Clinton emphasized that the United
States should not “look like we are seeking an agreement [with Iran] at a time
when the people of Iran are standing up to their oppressors.” 3
The administration has committed to Congress and to its allies that it is
developing a “Plan B” to address the full spectrum of Iranian threats.4 We hope
that this FDD plan is a useful contribution for policymakers developing that
Plan B: providing intensive support to the Iranian people while pursuing
decisive coercive and constraining pressure on the regime in Tehran.
Whatever the elements of an American plan, one thing should be clear: the Biden
strategy must support the current protests inside Iran and the regular eruptions
of anger toward the theocracy. Even before the Iranian street erupted in 2022,
after regime security services brutally murdered 22-year-old Iranian woman Mahsa
Amini, protests were occurring more often and with greater intensity.
In 2009, the Green Revolution saw hundreds of thousands of Iranians take to the
streets to protest the fraudulent re-election of then Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad. Nationwide protests shook the Islamic Republic in late 2017 and
have occurred regularly in the years since. In November 2019, an eruption of
protests spurred the clerical regime to kill as many as 1,500 demonstrators,
according to Reuters.5
Protesters gathered in August 2021 to challenge the regime over severe water
shortages, leading security forces to kill several people.6 Other protests in
recent years have challenged many of the regime’s malign policies, including its
mismanaged economy, corruption, regional aggression, and human rights abuses.
The 2022 protests have gone even further, with thousands of Iranians abandoning
calls for merely reforming the system; they now call for dismantling the regime.
Protests have evolved from “Where is my vote?” to “What happened to the oil
money?” to “Death to the Dictator!”7 This has increased the vulnerability of the
Islamic Republic, making it more susceptible to collapse.
America should adopt a “roll back” strategy to intensify the existing weaknesses
of the regime and to support the Iranian people’s goal of establishing a
government that abandons the quest for nuclear weapons and is neither internally
repressive nor regionally aggressive. To accomplish this, the American
administration should take a page from the playbook President Ronald Reagan
first used against the Soviet Union. In the early 1980s, Reagan seriously
upgraded his predecessors’ containment strategy by pushing policies designed to
roll back Soviet expansionism. The cornerstone of his strategy was the
recognition that the Soviet Union was an aggressive and revolutionary yet
internally fragile state that Washington could defeat.
Reagan’s policy was outlined in 1983 in National Security Decision Directive 75
(NSDD-75), a comprehensive strategy that called for the use of multiple
instruments of overt and covert American power.8 The plan included economic
warfare, support for anti-Soviet proxy forces and dissidents, and an all-out
offensive against the regime’s ideological legitimacy.
The Biden administration should develop a new version of NSDD-75. The
administration should address every aspect of the Iranian menace, not merely the
nuclear program. A narrow focus on disarmament paralyzes American policy and has
deterred the Biden administration from responding to Iran’s non-nuclear
misconduct out of fear that Tehran would withdraw from nuclear negotiations.
Engagement with the Islamic Republic as an end in itself has reflected the same
delusions that American leaders entertained about Communist China. Those
delusions of engagement made China more wealthy and more powerful and aggressive
but did not moderate China’s rulers. The Iranian regime’s selection of Ebrahim
Raisi — a mass-murdering9 cleric who is close to the supreme leader and received
the lowest number of votes in a long history of fixed elections run by the
Islamic Republic — as president should awaken American policymakers to the
unmistakable conclusion: The Islamic Republic cannot be reformed; it must be
rolled back. That is the message of the Iranian protesters.
President Biden also should explicitly abandon the objective of returning to the
JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). Under that agreement, Tehran does
not need to cheat to reach threshold nuclear-weapons capabilities. Merely by
waiting for key constraints to sunset, the regime can emerge over the next eight
years with an industrial-size enrichment program, a near-zero breakout time, an
easier clandestine “sneakout” path to long-range, nuclear-armed ballistic
missiles, much deadlier conventional weaponry, regional dominance, and a more
powerful economy, enriched by an estimated $1 trillion in sanctions relief, thus
gaining immunity from Western sanctions.10
A new U.S. strategy regarding Iran must contribute to systemically rolling back
the regime’s power. Washington should target the regime’s terrorist networks,
influence operations, and proliferation of weapons, missiles, and drones.
Iranian military support for Vladimir Putin’s murder of Ukrainians, and growing
Russian support for the Islamic Republic’s military expansion, should be a
wakeup call for Washington and Europe that Tehran’s malign activities will not
remain confined to the Middle East. Biden must develop a more muscular covert
action program and green-light closer cooperation with allied intelligence
agencies.
Most of Washington’s actions that could push back Tehran hinge on depleting the
Islamic Republic’s finances. With strong encouragement from Congress, the
pre-JCPOA Obama Treasury Department and the Trump administration ran successful
economic warfare campaigns targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC) and other regime elements. This campaign devastated Iranian government
finances, led to high inflation, spurred a collapse in oil exports and the
Iranian currency, and precipitated multiple rounds of street protests. In 2019,
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called the U.S. sanctions “unprecedented.”11 In the
same year, then Iranian president Hassan Rouhani compared conditions in Iran to
the country’s ravaged economy during the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988.12
But President Trump’s pressure campaign lasted only two years (from the snapback
of U.S. sanctions in November 2018 to the end of his term in January 2021) —
even less considering oil sanctions waivers were ended only in May 2019. If the
Biden administration restores the JCPOA, economic pressure will evaporate as
hundreds of potent sanctions are lifted and an estimated $1 trillion dollars in
sanctions relief will be released to the regime, which will then fund regional
aggression and internal repression.13 Already, the lackluster enforcement of
existing sanctions by the administration has been a boon for the regime, as oil
exports to China soar and Tehran leverages a clandestine financial
sanctions-busting network to access hard currency.14 FDD’s Iran plan, building
on years of sanctions work by our scholars, recommends numerous actions that the
Biden administration could take, including in coordination with Congress.
The nuclear reality is stark: The regime has rapidly expanded its nuclear
program since the election of President Biden. The bulk of the most dangerous
steps, including enrichment to 20 percent and 60 percent, as well as the
installation of hundreds of advanced centrifuges, production of uranium metal,
and the ongoing construction of a new facility that could be used for nuclear
enrichment, occurred after that date.15 According to estimates, Tehran could
“break out” and produce four bombs’ worth of weapons-grade uranium within
weeks.16
America’s Iran strategy thus needs a credible U.S. military threat, and a
corresponding shift in the U.S. defense posture in the Middle East, to deter the
regime in Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Washington also needs to ensure
that the regime perceives the Israeli military option as credible and likely.
The FDD plan offers numerous recommendations on how to do just that.
The American pressure campaign should also undermine the regime by strengthening
the pro-democracy forces in Iran. It should target the regime’s soft underbelly:
its massive corruption and human rights abuses, especially against women. As the
recurring protests demonstrate, the gap between the ruled and the regime is
expanding. Many Iranians no longer believe that the “reformists” can change the
Islamic Republic from within. After the 2009 uprisings, Khamenei alluded to his
regime as being “on the edge of a cliff.”17 President Biden should convey that
America will help the Iranian people push it over that edge. FDD’s Iran plan
offers numerous actionable recommendations on how to support the Iranian
people’s efforts to achieve this objective.
To be sure, encouraging the collapse of a brutally repressive regime like the
Islamic Republic of Iran will not be easy or predictable. It will require
sustained U.S. pressure and a steely determination — perhaps over a period of
years. Yet helping to free Iran remains a solution that Washington should not
abjure merely because it is difficult. Ultimately, it remains the key to
reducing instability in the region and advancing U.S. interests.
The Biden administration should present Iran with the choice between a new and
better agreement and an unrelenting American pressure campaign, which includes
the credible use of force. The nuclear issue likely will loom large for years to
come. Disarmament demands should not require abandoning a campaign of pressure.
Washington does not need to have a public strategy to help collapse the clerical
regime; Reagan did not have one for the USSR. Our political leaders, however,
should underscore the inevitability of the fate of an ideologically,
politically, and economically bankrupt regime that will end up on the “ash heap
of history.”18 Reagan spoke that way about the Soviet Union in his famous 1982
Westminster speech. In 1983, he issued NSDD-75. Six years later, the Berlin Wall
came down. Two years after that, the Soviet bloc collapsed.
Washington should intensify the pressure on the mullahs as Reagan did on the
Soviets. We would be far better off without another dogged enemy armed with
atomic weapons if we can possibly avoid it.
Why a Jew’s visit to the holiest Jewish site provokes
outrage
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/January 11/ 2023
Imagine if Pope Francis said: “Only Christians are permitted in the Vatican! No
Muslims and no Jews!” The “international community” would be outraged. But the
pontiff would never say that. Muslims and Jews are welcome in the Vatican.
Imagine if Israelis said: “Only Jews are permitted on Jerusalem’s Temple Mount!
No Muslims and no Christians!” The “international community” would be outraged.
But Israelis would never say that. Christians and Muslims are welcome on the
Temple Mount, Judaism’s most sacred site, the place where two great Jewish
temples were built and then destroyed by foreign empires.
Imagine if Palestinians, Jordanians and others said, “Only Muslims are permitted
on Haram al-Sharif, from which Muhammad ascended to Heaven and the third holiest
site for Muslims!” In fact, that is what many Palestinians, Jordanians and
others are saying, and the “international community” is outraged — but at
Israelis for not accepting rules intended only for Jews.
Do you understand why the Temple Mount and Haram al-Sharif occupy the same small
hilltop? It’s because, in antiquity, imperialist conquerors — not just Muslims —
commonly built atop the holy sites of those they conquered.
Today, however, the “international community” claims to value tolerance,
diversity and inclusion. Does it? And the Biden administration presents itself
as a champion of those values. Is it?
“We are deeply concerned by the visit of the Israeli minister at the Temple
Mount/Haram al-Sharif,” declared U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price.
“This visit has the potential of exacerbating tensions and leading to violence.”
Whose tensions may be exacerbated and why that might lead to violence, he didn’t
say.
The Israeli minister to whom he was referring is Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose Otzma
Yehudit (Jewish Power) party is a member of the coalition that has restored
Benjamin Netanyahu to the prime ministership. Mr. Ben-Gvir is on the far right
of the Israeli political spectrum, but that’s irrelevant here.
He’s an Israeli, a Jew, and an official in a democratically elected government
that has sovereignty over the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif.
At 7 a.m. Jan. 3, he entered the compound, walked around for 13 minutes, and
then quietly departed. He did not approach — much less enter — the al-Aqsa
Mosque, which is on the south end of the plaza.
Afterward, he said that in his official capacity as national security minister,
he will ensure that Muslims and Christians as well as Jews are free to visit the
site.
Nevertheless, U.N. Assistant Secretary-General Mohamed Khaled Khiari called Mr.
Ben-Gvir’s visit “particularly inflammatory.”
Hamas, the Palestinian Authority and the Kingdom of Jordan issued statements
declaring that if blood spills, Israelis will be to blame.
The Jordanian statement condemned “in the severest of terms the storming” of the
Haram al-Sharif and the violation of the “sanctity” of the al-Aqsa Mosque.
When walking becomes storming based solely on the nationality, race, ethnicity
or religion of the individual putting one foot in front of another, shouldn’t
there be objections from members of the “international community” who say they
oppose discrimination?
Instead, however, the United Arab Emirates, in alliance with the People’s
Republic of China, demanded the U.N. Security Council hold an “emergency”
meeting to discuss the presence of a Jew at Judaism’s holiest site.
The Emiratis — signatories of the Abraham Accords, establishing peaceful
relations with Israel — doubtless want to be seen as defenders of Islam and
Palestinians. They might ask themselves: Does endorsing an intolerant
interpretation of Islam really benefit Muslims and Palestinians?
A few years ago, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas declared that
both the al-Aqsa Mosque and Jerusalem’s Church of the Holy Sepulcher — among the
holiest of places for Christians — “are ours.” Jews, he added, “have no right to
defile them with their filthy feet.” I’m guessing that didn’t persuade most
Israelis to take “risks for peace.”
As for China’s rulers, they’re persecuting their Muslim subjects to the point of
genocide. They’ve destroyed thousands of mosques in Xinjiang, homeland of the
Uyghurs. Yet Beijing’s relations with Muslim-majority states remain cordial.
Defaming Israel helps China’s rulers keep them that way.
If you’ve been reading about this brouhaha in most media, you’ve probably seen
appeals to “preserve the historic status quo” with little or no explanation of
what that means. I’ll tell you.
After the flag of the British Empire in Jerusalem was lowered for the last time
in 1948, Israelis declared their independence. They were immediately attacked by
surrounding Arab nations.
Jordanian forces conquered and occupied east Jerusalem, from which they expelled
all Jews. And they forbade Jews of any nationality — but not Israeli Arabs —
from worshipping on the holy hilltop. And they destroyed or desecrated Jewish
religious sites.
In the defensive Six-Day War of 1967, Israelis drove Jordanians out of east
Jerusalem. But as a conciliatory gesture, Israeli leaders agreed that a waqf, a
Jordanian-controlled entity, would have religious authority over the compound
while Israelis would maintain security, keeping the holy sites open to all —
though only Muslims would be allowed to pray there. This status quo remains, but
there is debate among Israelis about the prohibition on prayer by non-Muslims.
In free countries, debate is not unusual. The countries attacking Israel —
rhetorically or kinetically — choose to ignore this fact.
Antisemites cast Jews as pariahs. Today, they also cast the only surviving and
thriving Jewish community in the Middle East as a pariah state. Antisemitism is
a mutating virus. Most Israelis have concluded that the modern variant cannot be
treated — much less cured — by making further concessions to those who despise
them along with those in the “international community” who aid and abet such
hatred.
If you’re looking for a succinct explanation of why Israelis elected a
right-wing coalition, there you have it.
• Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for The Washington Times.
Jew-Hate at American Universities
Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/January 11, 2023
[The Amcha] report paints a stark picture of an increasing, intensifying and
carefully coordinated campaign of attacks on Jewish identity at over 60% of the
colleges and universities that are popular with Jews, including 2,000 incidents
intended to harm Jewish students since 2015.
[T]hese activists demand an end to Zionism, which... means just one thing: an
end to the democratic State of Israel. This itself is antisemitism in any book
and is spelt out as such in the US State Department definition of antisemitism.
Despite expending so much energy against their fellow students, German Gentiles
had plenty left for their Jewish professors. Unsatisfied with Nazi race
regulations restricting Jewish faculty, students boycotted the classes of those
who were exempt under the race laws and pressured university authorities to
dismiss them. The result was that every Jewish professor who was still legally
allowed to teach had resigned by 1935.
The Amcha report characterises the situation on US campuses today as a crisis
for American Jews. It is much more than that. It is a crisis for us all that one
section of our student body is bullied, abused, intimidated and cast down by
their fellow students and often abandoned by their professors and faculty
authorities.
It is high time for the federal government, under Title VI of the 1964 Civil
Rights Act, to withdraw its funding from all universities that participate in
bigotry such as that.
A new report paints a stark picture of an increasing, intensifying and carefully
coordinated campaign of attacks on Jewish identity at over 60% of the U.S.
colleges and universities that are popular with Jews, including 2,000 incidents
intended to harm Jewish students since 2015.
As Jews were hounded out of German universities in the 1930s, where would you
have stood? Many of us would like to think we would have found the moral and if
necessary physical courage to stand up for our fellow students rather than see
them persecuted, bullied, abused and thrown out. Well, now we can actually put
our courage to the test as before our eyes we see a re-run of an almost
identical pattern of antisemitism — this time at American colleges, with a
similar picture at universities in Britain and elsewhere in the West.
A new study by the antisemitism watchdog Amcha Initiative documents a pervasive,
relentless assault on Jewish identity at US universities.
It has been going on for years, but this report paints a stark picture of an
increasing, intensifying and carefully coordinated campaign of attacks on Jewish
identity at over 60% of the colleges and universities that are popular with
Jews, including 2,000 incidents intended to harm Jewish students since 2015.
Most of this dark work is being done under the spurious and despicable cover of
delegitimising Israel, spreading blatant lies about the Jewish state and
conspiring to prevent those lies from being exposed or countered by seeking to
ban anyone who dares speak or even show support for the truth. With bloodthirsty
cries of "intifada, intifada" (meaning the mass murder of Jews), these activists
demand an end to Zionism, which, for the avoidance of doubt, means just one
thing: an end to the democratic State of Israel. This itself is antisemitism in
any book and is spelt out as such in the US State Department definition of
antisemitism, a definition that Jew-hating campus activists do all in their
power to resist, distort and discredit.
But sometimes even the threadbare "anti-Israel" mask of campus activists slips,
as they expose the naked racism behind their campaign with slogans like "Jews
control the government and the banks", "Jews out of CUNY" [City University of
New York] and "Jews are racist sons of bitches".
Even without such transparent venom, there is no disguising their anti-Jew
agenda. Attacks against any student or professor who supports Israel or Zionism
are made in the full knowledge that this means the overwhelming majority of Jews
— the Amcha report quotes Pew polling data showing that more than 80% of
American Jews view Israel as integral to their Jewish identity. In short,
however these campus activists might pretend otherwise, they are attacking Jews.
And they do not hold back. A 2021 poll from the Louis D. Brandeis Center for
Human Rights Under Law shows college students with a strong sense of Jewish
identity and connection to Israel have learnt that to avoid antisemitism they
must view their religion as something to hide, not celebrate. According to the
Brandeis Center:
"Nearly 70% of the students surveyed personally experienced or were familiar
with an anti-Semitic attack in the previous 120 days. More than 65% of these
students have felt unsafe on campus due to physical or verbal attacks, with one
in 10 reporting they have feared they themselves would be physically attacked.
And roughly 50% of students have felt the need to hide their Jewish identity".
As their oppressors freely and openly express their own religious or cultural
beliefs in words, actions and symbols, many Jewish students are forced to keep
quiet about theirs, discarding their skullcaps, hiding Star of David pendants
under their shirts and even thinking twice about placing a mezuzah on the
doorposts of their residences.
They know better than to give any hint of a connection with Israel on social
media, which is obsessively monitored and screen-shot by the jackals that want
to abuse, exclude and cancel them.
Some courageous students — and it's incredible that courage is needed for this
in 21st Century America — are unwilling to conceal their beliefs or abrogate
their right to freedom of speech, and so stand up to the intimidation they face
on campus. I pay tribute here to educational groups like Club Z, Stand With Us
and the UK Pinsker Centre who, among others, work hard to help strengthen such
individuals. Yet some Jewish students feel the need to switch sides to secure
their safety and find acceptance in a hostile environment. This has
significantly contributed to the growth of Jewish anti-Zionist organizations
such as Jewish Voice for Peace and is a tremendous prize for the Jew-haters.
According to the Amcha report, the presence of these groups on campus more than
doubles the likelihood of antisemitic incidents involving the distortion or
denigration of Jewish identity.
It is neither exaggeration nor hyperbole to say that the sustained campaign
against Jews at US universities in the 21st Century could have been modelled on
Jew-hate at German universities in the 1930s.
It is a popular belief that the total exclusion of Jewish students and faculty
at German universities by late 1938 was the work of the Nazi government
bureaucracy and therefore an entirely different phenomenon that should not be
compared to antisemitism on American campuses today. Uncomfortably for many,
that is not true.
In reality, German non-Jewish students, who had pioneered antisemitism on campus
before 1933, not the government, led the charge against their Jewish fellow
students in the early Nazi years, bullying and intimidating them and pressuring
the authorities to expel them. In other words, virtually the same phenomenon as
we see today in America and elsewhere in the West. A German student journalist
at the time wrote that students themselves made an important contribution to the
creation of the Nazi university in the Third Reich. (Source: Die Bewegung, 47
(1938), Bundesarchiv (BA) Koblenz, ZSg 129/152.)
Under assault from their fellow students, as in American universities now, many
Jews then found it prudent to conceal their ethnicity and religious beliefs,
years before the ultimate fate of the Jews in Germany could be foreseen.
Jews were excluded or expelled from the German Student Federation and other
student groups not because of any state edict but because of pressure by other
students. The same thing is happening today at American universities, with
recent examples of Jewish students being voted out from student councils and
excluded from community groups, specifically because they are Zionists, for
which read Jews.
Just as Jewish fraternity groups were targeted and physically attacked in 1930s
Germany, so the Amcha report documents systematic actions including physical
assaults against Jewish fraternities and student groups on campus today,
including Alpha Epsilon Pi (AEPi) and Hillel, as well as vitriolic condemnation
for participation in pro-Israel projects such as Birthright.
Despite expending so much energy against their fellow students, German Gentiles
had plenty left for their Jewish professors. Unsatisfied with Nazi race
regulations restricting Jewish faculty, students boycotted the classes of those
who were exempt under the race laws and pressured university authorities to
dismiss them. The result was that every Jewish professor who was still legally
allowed to teach had resigned by 1935.
As in 1930s Germany, Jewish professors feel the heat in today's America,
suffering abuse and attacks against them by fellow faculty members and students,
with some abandoning their kippahs for a quiet life. According to a report by
the Israel on Campus Coalition, pro-Israel scholars are often frozen out by
university authorities, in true Third Reich style, and faculty members are
hesitant to engage in public or even private support for Jewish students or to
take on their colleagues.
Illustrating the toxic atmosphere on some campuses, in January last year, six
CUNY professors filed a lawsuit against their faculty's professional union,
accusing it of antisemitism.
The Amcha report characterises the situation on US campuses today as a crisis
for American Jews. It is much more than that. It is a crisis for us all that one
section of our student body is bullied, abused, intimidated and cast down by
their fellow students, and often abandoned by their professors and faculty
authorities. Will we rise to defend our Jewish brethren in their persecution or
will we sit back and silently wring our hands as before? Perhaps we should
follow the example of German Gentile students Hans and Sophie Scholl and their
fellows in the White Rose, a student resistance group, who in the 1940s stood up
and spoke out against Nazi tyranny and the persecution of Jews. Their fate was
the guillotine.
It is high time for the federal government, under Title VI of the 1964 Civil
Rights Act, to withdraw its funding from all universities that participate in
bigotry such as that.
*Colonel Richard Kemp is a former British Army Commander. He was also head of
the international terrorism team in the U.K. Cabinet Office and is now a writer
and speaker on international and military affairs. He is a Jack Roth Charitable
Foundation Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Jesus, Mary, and Joseph: ‘Canceled’ in Egypt
Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/January 11, 2023
“Unknown persons” recently vandalized a beloved Christian icon in Muslim
majority Egypt. Belonging to the Monastery of the Virgin Mary, in Durunka, Asyut
Governorate, the large icon depicts the Holy Family: Jesus, Mary, and Joseph. As
part of their tourism efforts, Egyptian officials had asked the monastery—which
is built atop a spot frequented by the Holy Family when they fled to and stayed
in Egypt during Christ’s youth—to bring the icon out to the entrance of the road
that leads to and is about a mile away from the monastery.
As a Dec. 25, 2022 report explains,
For the first time this year, travelers to Egypt can follow what is believed to
be the trail that the Holy Family followed in this foreign land, thanks to the
completion of a long-anticipated project by Egypt’s Ministry of Tourism and
Antiquities.
The project, which connects twenty-five locations [including the monastery in
Durunka] connected to the Holy Family’s journey through the country, had been
under development since 2013 and launched in May 2022, when the final sites of
the trail were opened for the public.
Despite such “ecumenical” efforts, on Jan. 9, 2023, the monastery’s monks
discovered that the large icon had been defaced with black spray paint smeared
all over the faces of the Holy Family. Another, less valuable icon also at the
entrance was similarly vandalized.
Monastery officials immediately removed the icon back into the monastery, where
they have reportedly managed to restore it.
Discussing this incident, and how Egyptian officials and media are stressing
that the identity of the vandals is unknown, a Coptic journalist, somewhat
sarcastically said, “We know what ‘unknown persons’ mean”—an apparent reference
to the fact that Islamic hostility against Christian icons is nothing new
(examples here and here).
Nor is it limited to the Islamic world. In one instance in Greece—where 2,339
incidents of church desecrations have been recorded since Muslim migrants first
flooded that nation in 2015—Muslims videotaped one of their own, topless and
dancing to rap music, entering into and utterly desecrating a small church,
including by smashing its icons.
As for Egypt, though the Jan. 9 assault on one of the spots of the Holy Family’s
journey may seem to bode ill for that nation’s tourism efforts, there is, in
fact, little to fear. Unlike Egypt’s Christians and their private churches—which
are attacked with seeming impunity—the 25 points of the Holy Family’s journey
involve Egypt’s image and money-making efforts. No doubt all proper precautions
will be taken to safeguard against any would-be Islamic assaults.
Biden well placed to win a second term
Joel Rubin/Arab News/January 11, 2023
Now that the 2022 midterm elections are behind us, all of Washington is setting
its eyes on the potential rematch of Joe Biden versus Donald Trump in 2024.
While there are many open questions about the likelihood of these two men
returning to compete against each other, with Trump in particular facing
multiple challenges to his candidacy, there is little doubt that, for Democrats,
Biden is the clear choice to lead the party in 2024.
The first two years of Biden’s administration have been, for Democrats, a
stunning success. From guiding the country out of the COVID-19 pandemic to
passing historic, multitrillion-dollar legislation to address climate change,
strengthen healthcare and invest in national infrastructure, as well as leading
the country in its support of Ukraine and democracy abroad, Biden is riding
high.
It is stunning to recall how, as recently as September, this was not the case.
At that time, Democrats were downright gloomy about their prospects for the
midterm elections. Americans’ confidence in the economy was at rock-bottom.
While unemployment was at historic 50-year lows, inflation was at historic
40-year highs. Gas prices also hit record highs with no signs of abatement, and
concerns about crime and immigration were dominating the headlines.
To compound Democratic concerns, President Biden’s poll numbers hovered at
roughly 40 percent favorability, creating a perfect storm of fear among
Democrats that a “red wave” was coming to Washington, with Republicans about to
gain 30 to 40 seats in the House of Representatives and retake control of the
Senate by a significant margin.
Yet something happened in the fall of 2022, which was the realization, at its
core, that a Republican takeover of Congress would undermine democracy, while
stymying the Democratic agenda that Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate
Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer advanced. This agenda was immensely popular
within the Democratic Party — from the progressive wing to the centrist wing —
meaning that, in the fall, Democratic voters began to understand that they
needed to protect their agenda by turning out to vote. Suddenly, an election
that would historically see gains for the party out of power — the Republicans —
created a greater sense of urgency among Democratic voters that they needed to
show up at the polls to prevent a red wave. At the
same time, Americans were concerned not just about their pocketbooks, but also
about the state of American democracy. Casting a shadow over the midterms were a
crew of Republican candidates, endorsed by Trump, who embraced his lies about
the results of the 2020 presidential election and even expressed support for the
Jan. 6, 2021, insurrectionist rioters who assaulted the nation’s Capitol to
thwart American democracy.
These candidates demonstrated, in their campaigns, a contempt for American
democracy in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona
and Georgia. These were the states that determined the winner of the 2020
election (fact check: it really was Biden) and will likely be the decisive
states in the 2024 election. Yet the Republican candidates for governor, senator
and state-level offices that oversee elections in these states were
overwhelmingly antidemocratic, striking fear into the hearts of the electorate.
The voters took notice and saw that, in their states, the future of American
democracy truly was on the ballot.
The Republicans missed how motivated Democratic voters were to protecting
American democracy
And that is when Biden struck. In the fall, he made protecting American
democracy central to his argument about why Democrats should be reelected in the
midterms, including giving a dramatic speech in Pennsylvania just days before
the election. The national atmosphere had been ready to hear this argument,
pushed into learning more about Trump’s antidemocratic actions through the
House’s Jan. 6 commission. But instead of paying
attention to this shifting mood among the electorate, Republicans scoffed,
insisting that Americans only cared about crime and inflation, missing key
indicators that the future of American democracy truly mattered to swing voters
in these swing states. Early vote totals came in decidedly favoring Democrats,
but Republicans, like those enjoying the deckchairs on the Titanic, closed their
ears and eyes and missed how motivated Democratic voters were to protecting
American democracy.
Biden understood this. Democrats understood this. And when these pro-democracy
swing voters combined with aggressive turnout of the Democratic base, Democrats
held their ground, not only keeping the Senate but growing their majority by one
vote (51-49). And Republicans only took the narrowest of majorities in the
House, fewer than 10 seats (222-213) — meaning that Republicans can only lose
four of their votes to maintain the majority on legislation next year — in a
stunning defeat of their aspirations.
The winner after all this: Biden.
So, where we are now for Democrats is a balancing of policy objectives and
political ambitions. The policy dynamics in 2023 will be different for Democrats
from the past two years, clearly due to Republicans taking control of one
chamber of Congress. And politically, everything that Biden and the Senate
Democrats do should be viewed within the context of both positioning Biden for
reelection and seeking to strengthen their own electoral position in 2024.
Fortunately for Democrats, if Biden runs again, these two agendas will be
identical. If Biden were, in the unlikely case, to not run, deep confusion among
Senate Democrats would be unleashed, helping Republican prospects. But that is
unlikely.
What this means is that Senate Democrats will aggressively defend Biden and push
his agenda forward in an attempt to create a clear, visible difference from the
Republicans. They will confirm Biden’s judicial nominees aggressively. They will
pass legislation to codify a woman’s right to an abortion. They will pass
spending bills to combat climate change that the House will not even consider.
And they will move forward on legislation to strengthen the economy for
hard-working Americans.
It is worth noting that, on judicial nominees, as long as Majority Leader
Schumer can keep his caucus together — and on these types of appointments, he
was able to do so for the past two years — Democrats will have many successes to
point to. This is because Democrats will hold a majority on each committee due
to picking up that one seat in the midterms, as opposed to the previous even
split due to a 50-50 ratio in the chamber, making it significantly easier for
Democrats to get President Biden’s judicial nominees approved.
All these efforts will then be calibrated to create a clear contrast with
Republicans, so that Democratic base voters will remain motivated to turn out
again in 2024 and so that the swing voters will like what they see, especially
when compared to the Republican House.
On the other side of the political equation, House Republicans will seek to chip
away at Biden, attacking him for the work of his first two years, especially on
the withdrawal from Afghanistan and immigration. They will also likely seek to
rewrite the history of the Trump administration and the Jan. 6 insurrection.
Importantly, they will delve deep into personal attacks against Biden,
particularly against his son Hunter.
So, for Biden, the table has now been set. He has come through a successful
midterm election. His agenda in the first two years was largely implemented. His
allies in Congress are poised to make the case for his party by creating a clear
contract with the opposition. And Trump is lurking, on the cusp of again being
nominated by Republicans to run for the White House, striking at the core of
Biden’s original rationale in 2019 for seeking the presidency.
Now, the only question that remains is whether or not Biden will take up the
challenge of running again, becoming the first person in their 80s to be
nominated to be president by a major political party. But if you have watched
Biden over the years, one thing is clear: He has an unrivaled passion for public
service and is a true patriot. He stayed in the Senate in 1972 after his wife
and daughter were killed in a car accident, just before starting his first term,
demonstrating deep resolve. He ran for president, five decades later, explicitly
to stop Trump, the threats to American democracy and the rising hate in America,
all of which are deeply intertwined.
Senate Democrats will aggressively defend Biden in an attempt to create a clear
difference from the Republicans
So, yes, he will do it again. Because that is just who Biden is. He will run
again in 2024 to continue to stand up for American democracy. And he will run
again because he can win.
Yet a lot can happen between now and 2024. The Democratic legislative agenda is
at deep risk of stagnation because of Republican power in the House. House
investigations could motivate their base. And Trump could fall away as the
leading Republican candidate for president due to the legal quicksand he finds
himself in and the electoral losses his endorsed candidates suffered in 2022. On
the latter point, Republican leaders now openly blame Trump directly for their
weak showing in the election, meaning they smell his weakness.
And if Trump falters, it could paradoxically become more difficult for
Democrats. That is because, if Trump does not maintain his current grip on the
Republican base and becomes vulnerable to a challenger, that challenger — with
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis leading the pack — could pose a problem for Biden.
Not only would it not be the rematch to defend democracy that Biden craves, but
it would also put swing voters in the key swing states in play in a manner that
they currently are not. Remember, these voters rejected Trump in both 2020 and
2022. It is not clear that they would reject a different Republican in 2024.
But before we get too interested in an alternative to Trump emerging, let
us be realistic. No one commands the loyalty of the Republican base like Trump.
And in a primary, one only needs the base to win the nomination. The swing
voters are not going to the polls. Trump, therefore, still remains the
overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination for 2024. Only if he
chooses to withdraw from the race — which is highly unlikely — will he not take
the nomination.
So, get ready for a presidential election rematch in 2024 that will determine
the viability of American democracy, because that is what we are likely to get
very soon.
Interestingly, Biden will also gain a political advantage through his conduct of
foreign affairs as the nation’s commander-in-chief. In this role, he has
significant latitude to pursue his own policies with minimal Republican
interference, and he will use every opportunity to make the case that he is the
right person to lead America in the world, especially when compared to Trump’s
four years of chaos and estrangement from our country’s traditional allies and
policy positions.
For example, on his current signature foreign policy issue — Ukraine — he will
be able to show how his leadership is protecting America’s allies and democracy
abroad in support of our national security, a position that Trump abandoned.
Biden’s position has been a political winner for him throughout the past year
and he will continue to press the case to voters that his steady hand in a time
of global turmoil is an asset.
All of this taken together means Washington will be consumed, beginning in 2023,
with the race to frame the upcoming 2024 presidential election. And with the
likely competitors being Biden and Trump, get ready for all of the nation’s
capital’s actors to play their part to get to victory. For Biden, his
positioning to return to power in 2025 could not be any better.
• Joel Rubin is Democratic Strategist at Washington Strategy Group, a former
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs to the House of
Representatives, and a former US Senate National Security Adviser. Twitter:
@JoelMartinRubin
This article first appeared in Asharq. It is part of a series titled “2023: A
year of difficult questions.”