English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 11/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2023/english.january11.23.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
No wonder! Even Satan disguises himself as an angel of light. So it is not
strange if his ministers also disguise themselves as ministers of
righteousness.Their end will match their deeds.
Second Letter to the Corinthians 11/07-15/:"Did I
commit a sin by humbling myself so that you might be exalted, because I
proclaimed God’s good news to you free of charge? I robbed other churches by
accepting support from them in order to serve you. And when I was with you and
was in need, I did not burden anyone, for my needs were supplied by the friends
who came from Macedonia. So I refrained and will continue to refrain from
burdening you in any way. As the truth of Christ is in me, this boast of mine
will not be silenced in the regions of Achaia. And why? Because I do not love
you? God knows I do! And what I do I will also continue to do, in order to deny
an opportunity to those who want an opportunity to be recognized as our equals
in what they boast about. For such boasters are false apostles, deceitful
workers, disguising themselves as apostles of Christ. And no wonder! Even Satan
disguises himself as an angel of light. So it is not strange if his ministers
also disguise themselves as ministers of righteousness. Their end will match
their deeds."
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 10-11/2023
Lebanese Parliament Won’t Legislate 'Writing Off’ Bank Deposits
Berri schedules new presidential election session
Depositor fires gunshots at BLOM bank in Sidon
EU grants 25 million Euro to address food insecurity in Lebanon
French investigator into Salameh's case to arrive Monday in Lebanon
Hezbollah condemns Charlie Hebdo cartoons in France
Injuries as families of port victims storm Justice Palace
Mikati asks financial prosecutor to probe LibanPost work
Opportunity for girls in Lebanon to become an ambassador for a day
French judge Aude Buresi arrives in Lebanon on Monday to investigate Riad
Salameh
Rahi continues UK pastoral visit
Bou Saab meets Sleem, says powers of Defense Minister in General Inspectorate
“clear and explicit” in National Defense Law
Armed depositor raids BLF bank in Nabatieh
British Embassy issues statement on work to support IMPACT Platform
A radical idea to save Lebanon From Ralph Nader: Broad spectrum of Lebanese
public opinion petition the UN Security Council under Chapter VII to establish a
UN Transitional Authority for Lebanon/James J. Zogby/The Arab
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 10-11/2023
White House Demands ‘Immediate Cessation’ of Iran Death Sentences
Iraq Ignores Iran's Objection to Using 'Arabian Gulf' Name
Facebook, Instagram to Allow Posts Citing 'Death to Khamenei' Slogan
UN Rights Chief: Iran Executions Amount to 'State Sanctioned Killing'
Iran Sentences Belgian Aid Worker to Prison, Lashes
US Navy Says it Seized Iran Assault Rifles Bound for Yemen
Germany Searches for Chemicals after Arresting Iranian Brothers Accused of
Terrorism
Türkiye, Syria, Russia FMs Meeting to be determined after 'Committees' Talks
Sisi: We Did Not Waste Egypt's Money, ‘Current Crisis’ Has Global Causes
Russian warship holds drills in Norwegian Sea
Ukraine cannot win back territory without Western tanks, say officials
German minister promises Ukraine weapons, EU accession help on surprise trip
Wagner chief says he wants to seize a key Ukrainian city for its vast network of
caves and tunnels that could be used for war
Putin’s Secret ‘Squadron’ of Executioners Exposed for Killing Own Men
French PM to unveil pension changes that upset many workers
Armenia cancels military drills, widening rift with Moscow
Israeli president urges polarised politicians to 'lower the temperature'
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 10-11/2023
Africa's Sahel Region: Enter Russia's Wagner Group to Make It
Worse/Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/January 10, 2023
China Cements its Position in the Middle East/Judith Bergman/Gatestone
Institute/January 10/2023
The Illusions of Process in Syria/Robert Ford//Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 10/2023
New York Voters Put Democrats on Notice. Was the Message Received?/Mara Gay/The
New York Times/January, 10/2023
Netanyahu’s Potential Friction Points with Biden (Part 2): Iran, Saudi Arabia,
Ukraine, and Domestic Issues/David Makovsky/The Washington Institute/January
10/2023
A Survey of the 2023 Terrorism Threat Landscape/Christine Abizaid/The Washington
Institute/January 10/2023
on January 10-11/2023
Lebanese Parliament Won’t
Legislate 'Writing Off’ Bank Deposits
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 January, 2023
Lebanon’s Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab pledged Monday that Parliament will
never agree to legislate any law that would write off deposits in Lebanon’s
banks. Bou Saab was speaking following a session of the joint parliamentary
committees devoted to resuming the discussion of the capital control bill.
“There is hope to get out of the crisis if we collaborate and work in
transparency. The depositors' money must be returned gradually. We must reach a
stage where all the funds are returned to depositors," the Deputy Speaker said.
He revealed that the joint parliamentary committees are expected to approve the
long-awaited capital control law in their next session before transferring the
bill to the 128-member Parliament for final approval. “In principle, one session
remains to approve the law and its amendments,” Bou Saab said. He revealed
during Monday’s session the discussions have reached Article 11 of the bill. He
said this article discusses the role of the judiciary in terms of lawsuits filed
by depositors against banks. “Lawsuits that are filed abroad will not be
canceled, and this is for the benefit of depositors,” he said. However, Bou Saad
pointed out that banks do not transfer funds abroad if the case is related to a
large sum. “The capital control bill will only take into consideration the
rights of depositors,” the Deputy Speaker assured, stressing that bank deposits
have not disappeared. “The important thing is that MPs now approve the Capital
Control Law,” he said. Bou Saad also commented on early discussions by the
parliamentary committees that approved setting a minimum monthly withdrawal
amount of $800 for dollar accounts. In this regard, he called for cooperation
between the Central Bank and banks to implement this procedure, adding that
about 150,000 depositors can benefit from this law. “We want to preserve the
banks because, without banks, we cannot pay anything,” the MP stated. He added
that “the Central Bank has funded the State’s budget, and therefore the State
must bear the responsibility to return these funds.” Bou Saab suggested that the
State invest in its own properties to fund its spending. “There must be a
committee that sets an economic plan because we have many question marks around
the plan presented by the government,” he added.
Berri schedules new presidential election session
Naharnet/January 10/2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Tuesday scheduled a new presidential election
session for 11am Thursday. This will be the eleventh electoral session since
Michel Aoun’s presidential term ended last year. Berri has described Lebanon as
“a boat lost at sea” due to the parties’ failure to elect a new head of state.
In remarks to Annahar newspaper published Monday, Berri said he was feeling
“disgusted” by the impasse. Political sources meanwhile quoted Berri as saying,
in remarks to al-Joumhouria newspaper, that the stances of the political parties
have not changed and “accordingly the upcoming session will not change anything
in the current impasse.”
Depositor fires gunshots at BLOM bank in Sidon
Naharnet/January 10/2023
A depositor fired gunshots at the closed door of BLOM Bank in Sidon on Tuesday
in an attempt to storm the bank. Mohammad, a member of the Lebanese Army,
clashed with the bank's security guards before firing from his pistol at the
bank's door after the bank refused to sell him dollars at the Sayrafa rate,
media reports said. Mohammad was later arrested by the army. A central bank
circular allows individuals to exchange Lebanese pounds for fresh dollars from
commercial banks at the Sayrafa rate, a rate lower than the market rate set by
the Central Bank on a platform called Sayrafa platform.
Some banks apply limits, terms and conditions to individuals who want to benefit
from the circular, and others refuse to implement it. Also on Tuesday, the
Lebanese Depositors Association posted on its twitter account the picture of an
armed man inside the Banque Libano-Française in Nabatieh.
EU grants 25 million Euro to address food insecurity in
Lebanon
Naharnet/January 10/2023
The European Union has launched two new initiatives worth 25 million Euro to
support vulnerable people in Lebanon and to fight food insecurity. "These
initiatives are a response to the negative impact of Russia's war against
Ukraine on the European Union's neighbouring countries," the EU Delegation to
Lebanon said in a statement. The funds available for Lebanon will provide
immediate assistance for 7,245 impoverished Lebanese families (41,287
individuals) enrolled in the National Poverty Targeting Program (NPTP). The NPTP
is the country's social safety net implemented by the Government in
collaboration with the U.N. World Food Program. The EU assistance will help
Lebanese people in need to cover their food needs. "In the medium to longer
term, the European Union wants to help strengthening Lebanese agricultural and
agri-food systems. The productive capacity of Lebanese farmers shall be
increased. A less demanding and more climate-suitable agriculture shall be
supported. This will help Lebanon diversify its food production and move away
from dependency on crops/cereals imports. This project will be implemented in
partnership with the Food and Agriculture Organisation and World Food Programme,"
the EU Delegation said. "This new funding is additional to the already existing
projects implemented in the country related to food security and social
protection," it added. The Ambassador of the European Union to Lebanon, Ralph
Tarraf, declared at the launch of these initiatives: “The European Union stands
by the side of the Lebanese people in these challenging times.”
French investigator into Salameh's case to arrive Monday in Lebanon
Naharnet/January 10/2023
The Observatoire Européen pour l’Integrité du Liban said Tuesday that French
judge Aude Buresi will arrive Monday in Lebanon, in her second visit to the
country. Buresi will continue her investigations in the ongoing case of Central
Bank Governor Riad Salameh, the association said.
European delegations from France, Germany and Luxembourg will arrive in Lebanon
in January to question senior Lebanese banking and financial officials, as part
of an investigation involving defendants and suspects in corruption and money
laundering operations allegedly carried out by Salameh.
Hezbollah condemns Charlie Hebdo cartoons in France
Associated Press/January 10/2023
Hezbollah on Tuesday condemned the cartoons published recently by the French
satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo that mocked Iran's ruling clerics and urged
France to punish the publication. Hezbollah said the offensive caricatures were
an "ugly act by the magazine" that targeted Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, revered as the spiritual leader for tens of millions of pious Shiites
throughout the world, including in Lebanon. There was no immediate comment from
France. Charlie Hebdo has a long history of publishing vulgar cartoons mocking
Islamists, which critics say are deeply insulting to Muslims. Two French-born
al-Qaida extremists attacked the newspaper's office in 2015, killing 12
cartoonists, and it has been the target of other attacks over the years. Its
latest issue features the winners of a recent cartoon contest in which entrants
were asked to draw the most offensive caricatures of Khamenei. The contest was
billed as a show of support for the monthslong anti-government protests rocking
Iran. One of the finalists depicts a turbaned cleric reaching for a hangman's
noose as he drowns in blood, while another shows Khamenei clinging to a giant
throne above the raised fists of protesters. Others depict more vulgar and
sexually explicit scenes. "We call upon the French government to take decisive
measures to punish those behind the act for attacking dignitaries of a whole
nation," Hezbollah said in a statement. "The French government ... should not be
a partner in this offense." Members of Hezbollah also consider Khamenei as their
religious leader. Charlie Hebdo, which has published similarly offensive
cartoons about dead child migrants, virus victims, neo-Nazis, popes, Jewish
leaders and other public figures, presents itself as an advocate for democracy
and free expression. But it routinely pushes the limits of French hate speech
laws with often sexually explicit caricatures that target nearly everyone.
Injuries as families of port victims storm Justice Palace
Naharnet/January 10/2023
Families of Beirut port blast victims on Tuesday stormed the Justice Palace in
Beirut in protest at perceived political and judicial obstruction of the
investigation, a few days after the judiciary ended a lengthy judicial
strike.The relatives managed to storm the outer gate of the Justice Palace and
some of them were injured in clashes with security forces. The sit-in inside and
outside the Palace is still ongoing. Speaking to al-Jadeed TV, a spokesman for
the families, William Noon, said: “We are not against the Higher Judicial
Council but rather against some judges in in it.”“All that we want is for the
investigation to resume,” Noon added. The investigation into the blast, which
killed over 230 people, injured thousands and caused billions of dollars in
damage has been blocked for months now by Lebanon's political powers. That came
after three former ministers filed legal challenges against investigative Judge
Tarek Bitar effectively suspending his investigations. Many blame the tragedy on
the Lebanese government's longtime corruption, but the elite's decades-old lock
on power has ensured they are untouchable. The Aug. 4, 2020 explosion occurred
when hundreds of tons of highly explosive ammonium nitrate, a material used in
fertilizers, detonated at the port. It later emerged that the ammonium nitrate
had been shipped to Lebanon in 2013 and stored improperly at a port warehouse
ever since. Senior political and security officials knew of its presence but did
nothing. Bitar has been the subject of harsh criticism by Lebanon's powerful
Hezbollah. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah Bitar's investigation a "big
mistake" and said it was biased. He also asked authorities to remove Bitar.
Bitar is the second judge to take the case. The first judge, Fadi Sawwan, was
forced out after complaints of bias by two ministers. Bitar charged four former
senior government officials with intentional killing and negligence that led to
the deaths of dozens of people. He also charged several top security officials
in the case.
Mikati asks financial prosecutor to probe LibanPost work
Naharnet/January 10/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Tuesday filed a notice with Financial
Prosecutor Judge Ali Ibrahim, asking him to “launch a comprehensive and broad
investigation into the work of the LibanPost company and reveal whether there
are any offenses, violations or abuses committed by it or by its owners or those
in charge of it.”If it turns out that there are any irregularities, the relevant
legal measures should be taken, Mikati, who owns LibanPost, added. In the notice
he decries that “whenever the issue of LibanPost is raised, some media platforms
launch accusations against the company and against us under the excuse that it
is owned by us.” The caretaker Cabinet had recently issued a resolution tasking
and authorizing the telecom minister to sign a clearance and release of
responsibility contract with the company. Mikati noted that Cabinet discussed
the issue based on a request from the telecom minister, who “stressed that his
authorization by Cabinet was based on the applicable laws and regulations.”
Accordingly, Mikati called on Ibrahim to “investigate out of the principle of
transparency and to refute the systematic false accusations and unjust campaign
that is targeting us,” describing the reports in this regard as misleading and
suspicious.
Opportunity for girls in Lebanon to become an ambassador for a day
Naharnet/January 10/2023
The British Embassy in Beirut is launching the ‘Ambassador For A Day’
competition where winners will be able to shadow an Ambassador in Lebanon for
one day. The competition aims to encourage young girls to become leaders and
advocates for change. The theme of the competition is Embrace Equity which is
the theme for this year’s International Women’s Day, 8 March 2023. All girls
aged 15-18 years old and who are not at university are eligible. The competition
is open from now until 9 February 2023. The winners will be invited as Guests of
Honor to the British Embassy Beirut. Each winner will be paired with an
Ambassador in Lebanon to spend a day with them and their Embassy. “This promises
to be an unforgettable opportunity to build skills in diplomacy, confidence and
leadership,” the British Embassy said, encouraging girls living in Lebanon and
from all backgrounds to apply. To enter, participants should submit either a
video or short essay in English or Arabic answering the question: If you were
ambassador for a day, what is one step you would take to help create a fair and
equal society? For the full competition details and how to enter: Link
Competition terms and conditions: Link
French judge Aude Buresi arrives in Lebanon on
Monday to investigate Riad Salameh
NNA/January 10/2023
French judge Aude Buresi is set to arrive on Monday in Lebanon, on her second
visit to the country, in order to continue her investigations into the ongoing
case of Central Bank Governor, Riad Salameh, the European Observatory of
Integrity in Lebanon (Observatoire Européen pour l’Integrité du Liban) announced
in a tweet.
Rahi continues UK pastoral visit
NNA/January 10/2023
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi on Tuesday continued
his pastoral visit to the United Kingdom, where he held official talks with the
British Minister of State for Near Eastern Affairs and his deputy, in the
presence of Lebanese Ambassador to the UK, Rami Mourtada, prelate Francis Sayah,
and lawyer Walid Ghayad. For his part, Rahi stressed "the need to preserve
diversity and pluralism in Lebanon, as it is a model of Islamic-Christian
coexistence and a center of dialogue between civilizations, cultures, and
religions.”
Bou Saab meets Sleem, says powers of Defense Minister in
General Inspectorate “clear and explicit” in National Defense Law
NNA/January 10/2023
Deputy House Speaker, Elias Bou Saab, on Tuesday welcomed Caretaker Minister of
Defense, Brigadier General Maurice Sleem. The pair broached the country’s
general conditions and the difficulties that the Ministry of Defense’s
institutions have been enduring due to the state’s deteriorating economic
conditions. The dispute that arose between the Minister of Defense and the Army
Commander over a vacancy in the General Inspectorate was also discussed between
both men. For his part, Bou Saab expressed regret at the lack of respect for
laws within the military institution, especially for the National Defense Law,
noting that the powers of the Minister of Defense within the General
Inspectorate were “clear and explicit” in the aforementioned law.
Armed depositor raids BLF bank in Nabatieh
NNA/January 10/2023
An armed depositor has raided the Banque Libano-Française bank in Nabatieh,
demanding to recover $50,000 of his deposit to treat his diabetic sons, our
correspondent reported on Tuesday.
British Embassy issues statement on work to support IMPACT
Platform
NNA/January 10/2023
The British Embassy in Beirut categorically rejects the unsubstantiated,
erroneous and misleading claims made in a report on UK support for the IMPACT
project published by Al Akhbar on 9 January 2023. We are and remain proud of our
contribution to anti-corruption efforts in Lebanon, including the important work
of the IMPACT platform, Central Inspection and Judge George Attieh.The British
Embassy agreed a Memorandum of Understanding with Central Inspection on 20
August 2021 which detailed our Governance, Oversight, & Accountability Project.
The Lebanese government mentioned the project in their financial plan issued on
30 April 2020. This project consists of technical assistance to Central
Inspection. Despite baseless accusations, the project complies with the highest
international standards for data protection and security using industry-leading
providers. We were disappointed that Al Akhbar’s editors did not contact us for
comment ahead of publishing the article. This would have allowed us to correct a
number of factual errors and misunderstandings. IMPACT’s work is ground-breaking
and the first of its kind in Lebanon. Improving access to e-governance provides
much-needed transparency and accountability. IMPACT’s high profile achievements
include enabling the COVID vaccine roll out and the World Bank Social Safety
Net. The UK is clear that Lebanon’s leaders should focus on establishing a
government to deliver meaningful reforms, including to secure an IMF deal. This
is a vital step to alleviate the economic crisis and improve the lives of the
Lebanese people. We have consistently called out corruption in Lebanon’s
governance systems, most recently in an article co-signed by G7 Ambassadors
together with the EU Ambassador last month to mark World Anti-Corruption day. We
will continue to work with our international partners in support of programmes
and institutions committed to combatting corruption and promoting transparency,
both of which are fundamental to a better future for Lebanon.
A radical idea to save Lebanon From Ralph
Nader: Broad spectrum of Lebanese public opinion petition the UN Security
Council under Chapter VII to establish a UN Transitional Authority for Lebanon.
James J. Zogby/The Arab Weekly/January 10/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/114812/%d8%ac%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%b3-%d8%ac-%d8%b2%d8%ba%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%81%d9%83%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%b0-%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7/
James J. Zogby/The Arab Weekly/January 10/2023
Nader calls for representatives of a broad spectrum of Lebanese public opinion
petition the UN Security Council under Chapter VII to establish a UN
Transitional Authority for Lebanon.
Without exaggeration, Ralph Nader is one of the transformational figures in
recent US history. Because of his efforts, we drive safer cars, have cleaner
water and air, and have safer homes and places of work. It wasn’t easy. To build
the movement for change, he confronted major US corporations, banks, and
powerful political lobbies, all with entrenched interests in maintaining the
status quo.
Ralph Nader is also a deeply committed Arab American of Lebanese descent and
tireless advocate for justice for Arabs and against discrimination here in the
US. For months, he and I have been discussing the continuing crisis in Lebanon
and what, if anything, can be done to pull the country back from the abyss and
create viable institutions to provide needed services and earn public trust.
Up until now, proposals to solve Lebanon’s crisis have involved making
recommendations to Lebanon’s leaders to make reforms. What’s troubling is the
futility of calling on the very same corrupt sectarian leaders who have driven
the country to ruin to reform themselves out of business—with the US and other
international bodies offering incentives or sanctions to motivate them to adopt
these measures.
Reflecting on this conundrum, Ralph Nader sent me a memorandum providing both an
analysis of the Lebanese crisis and a radical proposal for a way forward.
He begins by observing that “Lebanon is a failed state…Its staggeringly corrupt,
sectarian government enriches a cabal of leaders…at the expense of the Lebanese
people…Many of Lebanon’s political pathologies are enshrined in its Constitution
which…prescribes sectarian divisions.”
But, Nader continues, there is a way forward because “the Lebanese constitution
also acknowledges that…the people are the source of power and sovereignty”
leading him to conclude that “the people collectively retain the right to
dispense with the current constitutional dispensation and provide for a
successor better suited for their liberty, safety, and happiness.”
Based on this, Nader calls for “representatives of a broad spectrum of Lebanese
public opinion petition the UN Security Council under Chapter VII to establish a
UN Transitional Authority for Lebanon headed by a designee of the Secretary
General and entrusted with the short-term governance of Lebanon with apolitical
experts (drawn from vast pool of accomplished political and business
professionals in the Lebanese emigre community)…and tasked with the organising
and conducting an election of a constituent assembly to write a new constitution
with a subsequent referendum.”
Two observations can be made with certainty. First, Lebanon‘s sectarian leaders
will undoubtedly reject such a radical proposal, as will Hezbollah, since it
threatens their power and sources of wealth. But relying on these leaders and
groups to find a way out of the mess they have created is a nonstarter.
Second, based on our three decades of polling in Lebanon, we know that
substantial majorities of Lebanese, across all regions and religious groups,
have little confidence in the traditional sectarian parties and leaders and,
more importantly, want to rewrite the constitution to provide for
one-man/one-vote representative elections. We saw a manifestation of this during
the October 2019 uprising, in which over one million Lebanese took to the
streets demanding the ouster of old guard elites.
The key to Nader’s proposal for saving Lebanon is the empowerment of two groups
of Lebanese who until now have been forced to sit on the sidelines watching a
country they love dying a slow death—hemorrhaging its people, wealth, and hope.
The proposal provides the opportunity for Lebanese civil society to petition the
UN and then vote on a referendum to write a new constitution. And the proposal
engages the extraordinarily successful Lebanese emigre community by inviting
them to help reform and rebuild the institutions of the country.
Even with such broad public support, upending entrenched interests will not be
easy, but as Nader demonstrated in the last century, neither was fighting major
US corporations, banks, and political lobbies. His proposal is a path that
should be seriously discussed to spur a far-reaching debate about what it will
take to save the country.
Some may dismiss it as radical. But because Lebanon is worth saving, radical
ideas, as improbable as they may seem, demand to be tried, if only because all
other options have failed.
*Dr James J. Zogby is President of the Washington-based Arab American Institute.
A radical idea to save Lebanon | James J. Zogby | AW (thearabweekly.com)
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 10-11/2023
White House Demands ‘Immediate Cessation’ of Iran
Death Sentences
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 January, 2023
The White House on Monday condemned the latest executions of protesters
announced by Iran and said the United States stands with other countries
demanding “immediate cessation” of the death sentences. “We condemn the
executions of Mohammad Mehdi Karami & Mohammad Hosseini and the additional
executions announced today,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan tweeted,
referring to two people executed Saturday, and three more death sentences
announced Monday. “We join with partners around the world calling for an
immediate cessation of these abuses. Iran will be held accountable,” Sullivan
said.
Iraq Ignores Iran's Objection to Using 'Arabian Gulf' Name
Baghdad – Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 January, 2023
Iraq ignored the Iranian protest against using the "Arabian Gulf" name and did
not comment on Foreign Ministry's spokesperson Naser Kanaani's complaint, saying
that authorities should take necessary measures. Earlier, Iraqi Prime Minister
Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani opened the Gulf Cup 25, referring to it as the "Arabian
Gulf Cup" to welcome the delegations. The "Arabian Gulf" is a common phrase in
Iraq and through all official correspondence. Leader of the al-Sadr movement
Muqtada al-Sadr also used the term "Arabian Gulf" in his tweet to welcome the
Arab guests to Basra.
Meanwhile, an expert on Iraqi international and maritime borders, Jamal al-Halbousi,
asserted that each country has its history within the region, referring to Iraq
and Iran. Halbousi explained to Asharq Al-Awsat that the first map devised in
the eighteenth century was French and referred to the area as the "Arabian
Gulf", adding that history referred to Khosraw within Mesopotamia and did not
reach the banks of the Gulf. He noted that the Gulf bore multiple names, such as
the Arabian Gulf, the Arabian Sea, the Sea of Oman, the Gulf, or the Sea of
Basra for the area confined between the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea.
Halbousi explained that the Shatt al-Arab is an area in an Arab region, adding
that there was an Iraqi area in the Iranian side, but it was Arabian. He
asserted that the designation for a specific time does not mean that it was
binding for another country. Media professor at Ahl al-Bayt University Ghalib
al-Daami believed the Iranian objection is unjustified and incorrect because the
Gulf has been referred to as the Arabian Gulf. It was also known as the Gulf of
Basra. Al-Awsat, Daami wondered why Iran did not object previously when
the tournament was organized in Kuwait, Qatar, and other countries and only
objected when it was organized in Iraq. He also questioned why Tehran did not
object to the former regime, which referred to the Arabian Gulf in all its
political statements. The expert believed the issue is more significant than
just naming the Gulf but rather related to the public interaction in Basra in
receiving Arabs from the Gulf countries and the unparalleled support for the
Gulf teams or audience. Daami believed the Iraqi government should reject the
Iranian protest and deepen its Arab-Gulf relations while maintaining good
relations with Iran, based on Iraq's ultimate interest.
Facebook, Instagram to Allow Posts Citing 'Death to
Khamenei' Slogan
New York - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 January, 2023
The Meta Oversight Board overturned the company's decision to remove any
Facebook and Instagram posts that used the slogan "death to Khamenei" to
criticize the Iranian leader, saying it did not violate a rule barring violent
threats. The board, which is funded by Meta but operates independently, said in
a ruling that the phrase is often used to mean "down with Khamenei" in referring
to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It also urged the company to develop
better ways of factoring such context into its content policies and outline
clearly when rhetorical threats against heads of state were permitted.
The independent body, funded by the company, indicated" "In the context of the
post, and the broader social, political and linguistic situation in Iran, 'marg
bar Khamenei' should be understood as 'down with.' It is a rhetorical, political
slogan, not a credible threat."Instagram, the most popular in Iran, has faced
criticism for deleting posts denouncing the authorities. Iranian celebrities
criticized the company last year and questioned the possibility of the team
supervising the network being hacked by the Iranian authorities. According to
Agence France-Presse, the Oversight Board considered that Facebook's failure to
enforce freedom of expression silenced the political discourse aimed at
protecting women's rights. Meta always had to choose between mitigating content
that could be considered violent and defending the freedom of expression. The
company bans language that incites "serious violence" but aims to avoid
overreach by limiting enforcement to credible threats, leaving ambiguity around
when and how the rule applies. After Russia invaded Ukraine last year, for
example, Meta introduced a temporary exemption to allow calls for death to
Russian President Vladimir Putin, aiming to give users in the region space to
express their anger over the war.
UN Rights Chief: Iran Executions Amount to 'State Sanctioned Killing'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 January, 2023
The UN human rights chief said that the death penalty was being weaponized by
Iran's government to strike fear into the population and stamp out dissent,
saying the executions amounted to "state sanctioned killing". "The weaponization
of criminal procedures to punish people for exercising their basic rights – such
as those participating in or organizing demonstrations - amounts to state
sanctioned killing," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said,
adding that the executions violated international human rights law. Iran hanged
two men on Saturday for allegedly killing a member of the security forces during
nationwide protests and more have since been sentenced to death. The UN Human
Rights office has received information that two further executions are imminent,
Reuters quoted the statement as saying. Turk said in a statement that there were
numerous violations of due process and fair trial in the cases including the
application of vaguely worded criminal provisions, denial of access to a lawyer
of choice, forced confession under torture and denial of a meaningful right of
appeal.
Iran Sentences Belgian Aid Worker to Prison, Lashes
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 January, 2023
Iran has sentenced a Belgian aid worker to a lengthy prison term and 74 lashes
after convicting him of espionage charges in a closed-door trial, state media
reported Tuesday. The website of Iran’s judiciary said a Revolutionary Court
sentenced 41-year-old Olivier Vandecasteele to 12.5 years in prison for
espionage, 12.5 years for collaboration with hostile governments and 12.5 years
for money laundering. He was also fined $1 million and sentenced to 2.5 years
for currency smuggling. Under Iranian law, Vandecasteele would be eligible for
release after 12.5 years. The judiciary website said the verdicts can be
appealed. Iran has detained a number of foreigners and dual nationals over the
years, accusing them of espionage or other state security offenses and
sentencing them after secretive trials in which rights groups say they are
denied due process. Critics accuse Iran of using such prisoners as bargaining
chips with the West, something Iranian officials deny. Iran has not released any
details about the charges against Vandecasteele. It is unclear if they are
related to anti-government protests that have convulsed Iran for months or a
long-running shadow war with Israel and the US marked by covert attacks on
Iran's disputed nuclear program. The nationwide protests began after the death
in police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was detained for allegedly
violating Iran's strict dress code. Rallying under the slogan “Women, life,
freedom,” the protesters say they are fed up with decades of social and
political repression. Iran has blamed the protests on foreign powers, without
providing evidence. Vandecasteele's family said last month that he has been
detained in an Iranian prison for months and has been on a hunger strike. They
said he was deprived of access to a lawyer of his choice and is suffering from
serious health problems. Belgium has urged its nationals to leave Iran, warning
that they face the risk of arbitrary arrest or unfair trial. “Iran has
provided no official information regarding the charges against Olivier
Vandecasteele or his trial,” Belgium's Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib said in a
statement. “We will summon the Iranian ambassador today, given the information
that is circulating in the press.” “Belgium continues to condemn this arbitrary
detention and is doing everything possible to put an end to it and to improve
the conditions of his detention,” she said. The protests, which have continued
for nearly four months with no sign of ending, mark one of the biggest
challenges to the mullah regime since the 1979 revolution that brought it to
power. At least 520 protesters have been killed and more than 19,300 people have
been arrested since the demonstrations began, according to Human Rights
Activists in Iran, a group that has been monitoring the unrest. Iranian
authorities have not provided official figures on deaths or arrests. Iran has
executed four people after convicting them of charges linked to the protests,
including attacks on security forces. They were also convicted in Revolutionary
Courts, which do not allow those on trial to pick their own lawyers or see the
evidence against them. London-based Amnesty International has said such trials
bear “no resemblance to a meaningful judicial proceeding.” Norway and Denmark
summoned Iranian ambassadors this week to protest the executions and Iran's
handling of the demonstrations.
“What is happening in Iran is completely unacceptable and must stop,” Norway’s
Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt said. “We have strongly condemned the
executions. ... We have called on Iran to end the use of the death penalty and
to respect human rights.”
In Denmark, Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen called the executions
“completely unacceptable” and said the European Union should impose additional
sanctions on Iran.
US Navy Says it Seized Iran Assault Rifles Bound for Yemen
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 January, 2023
The US Navy seized over 2,100 assault rifles from a ship in the Gulf of Oman it
believes came from Iran and were bound for Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi
militias, a Navy spokesman said Tuesday. It was the latest capture of weapons
allegedly heading to war-torn Yemen. The seizure last Friday happened after a
team from the USS Chinook, a Cyclone-class coastal patrol boat, boarded a
traditional wooden sailing vessel known as a dhow. They discovered the
Kalashnikov-style rifles individually wrapped in green tarps aboard the ship,
said Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins, a spokesman for the Navy’s Mideast-based 5th Fleet.
Experts examining photos released by the Navy later said the weapons appeared to
be Chinese-made T-56 rifles and Russian-made Molot AKS20Us. Type 56 rifles have
been found in previously seized weapons caches. Similar green tarping also has
been used. The Chinook, along with the patrol boat USS Monsoon and the guided
missile destroyer USS The Sullivans, took possession of the weapons. They
resembled other assault rifles previously seized by the Navy, suspected to be
from Iran and heading to Yemen. “When we intercepted the vessel, it was on a
route historically used to traffic illicit cargo to the Houthis in Yemen,”
Hawkins told The Associated Press. “The Yemeni crew corroborated the origin.”
The Yemeni crew, Hawkins added, will be repatriated back to a
government-controlled part of Yemen. A United Nations arms embargo has
prohibited weapons transfers to the Houthis since 2014, when Yemen’s war
erupted. Iran has long denied arming the Houthis even as it has been
transferring rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, missiles and other weaponry to
the Houthis using sea routes. Independent experts, Western nations and UN
experts have traced components seized aboard other detained vessels back to
Iran. Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not respond to a request for
comment Tuesday. In November, the Navy found 70 tons of a missile fuel component
hidden among bags of fertilizer, also allegedly from Iran and bound to Yemen.
Germany Searches for Chemicals after Arresting
Iranian Brothers Accused of Terrorism
Berlin - Raghida Bahnam/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 January, 2023
German authorities raided new sites in search of chemicals, a day after they had
arrested two Iranian suspects who were preparing a terrorist attack using
biological weapons, according to the Düsseldorf prosecutor’s office. Police and
investigators are still searching for evidence in the case, but they have not
yet found any chemicals, according to security sources cited by the German news
website, Der Spiegel. Officials said Monday that, during searches of multiple
locations in connection with the investigation, they found a package with
unknown contents in a garage, which was to be removed for inspection. Some homes
in the immediate vicinity were evacuated as a precaution. Police agents raided
the Iranians’ home in the city of Castrop-Rauxel, in western Germany’s
North-Rhine Westphalia state, around midnight Saturday night after neighbors had
reported suspicious activity. Several police, firefighters and rescue workers
took part, with many emergency personnel donning biochemical protection suits.
Despite the raid, authorities couldn’t find what they were looking for. Two
arrest warrants were issued against the Iranians, who are brothers, and the
public prosecutor charged the main suspect in the case, Mounir J., a 32-year-old
Iranian national, with preparing a terrorist attack because of his sympathy with
ISIS. The prosecution is accusing Mounir of wanting to make a biological bomb
after possessing highly toxic materials, namely ricin and cyanide. The police
arrested the main suspect and his brother after obtaining information about
their preparation for an imminent attack from the US Federal Bureau of
Investigation. The involvement of the brother, who was arrested during the
operation, remains unclear. According to German media, the main suspect wanted
to carry out the attack on New Year's Eve. He, however, was not able to obtain
all the necessary materials in time. The two brothers arrived in Germany in 2015
and applied for asylum. According to media sources, the main suspect claimed
that he was a Christian persecuted in Iran.
Türkiye, Syria, Russia FMs Meeting to be
determined after 'Committees' Talks
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 January, 2023
Reports on the upcoming meeting between the foreign ministers of Türkiye, Syria,
and Russia continue to be discussed as Ankara suddenly demanded Turkish control
over Aleppo as an "optimal solution" to the issue of Syrian refugees. Iran also
entered the path of rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus. Sources close to
the governments of Ankara and Damascus said that a date still needs to be set
for the foreign ministers' meeting. Turkish sources suggested that the meeting
would only occur after the return of Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu from
Washington, who is currently in the US for the strategic council for Turkish-US
relations. Informed sources told Hurriyet daily that the foreign ministers'
meeting is set to be determined, expecting it to be held within a few weeks.
They stated that the meetings and talks between Türkiye and the Syrian regime
would be among the topics for discussion during the meetings of the Strategic
Council and between the Turkish delegation and US officials. Washington rejected
any rapprochement with the Bashar al-Assad regime and reminded parties that seek
normalization of its human rights violations. The sources explained that
immediate results could not be expected from the meetings with the regime, given
that the sensitive issues, including combating terrorism, referring to ending
the presence of the Kurdish People's Defense Units, the largest component of the
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), near the Turkish border. The talks also
discussed humanitarian aid and the voluntary and safe return of Syrian refugees
following a possible meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the head
of the Syrian regime, Bashar al-Assad. The sources pointed out that despite the
difficult political and military issues, the tripartite meeting between the
defense ministers and the heads of the intelligence services of Türkiye, Russia,
and Syria in Moscow last December, created the impression that the complex
issues could be overcome. Hurriyet said that the option of Türkiye conducting a
ground operation against the SDF in northern Syria is still on Ankara's agenda,
which closely monitors developments and maintains readiness for all possible
scenarios. Informed sources told media outlets affiliated with the Syrian regime
that there was still no specific date for the talks between the foreign
ministers, saying it was linked to the results of the meeting of "competent
committees" formed after the meeting of the defense ministers in Moscow.
Iran's involvement
The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani announced that President
Ebrahim Raisi would visit Türkiye and Syria.
Kanaani pointed out that the relations between Tehran and Damascus are at the
highest level and that Iran supports Syria's sovereignty, independence, and
territorial integrity, as iterated in the phone call between Iranian Foreign
Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and his Syrian counterpart Faisal Mekdad.
Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said last Tuesday that Raisi would
visit Ankara in the coming weeks, the first visit of an Iranian president to the
country in about four years. He said the planned visit was postponed due to
"certain reasons," adding that the protocols are being discussed between the two
sides, and the visit will take place in the coming weeks. Former Iranian
President Hassan Rouhani visited Ankara in mid-2019 to participate in a summit
between the leaders of Iran, Russia, and Türkiye to consult on the Syrian
crisis. The last visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Tehran was
last July.
Internal division
Signs of internal division surfaced in Türkiye in the media close to the
government and the opposition regarding rapprochement and normalization with the
Assad regime. The opposition believed it was the first to discuss the
normalization issue with the Assad regime considering Türkiye's security and the
solution to the Syrian refugee problem. Opposition media also noted that its
pressure led to the involvement of Erdogan's government in this issue. But they
indicated that the President would take advantage of these steps to boost his
chances in the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for next June.
Media outlets loyal to the ruling Justice and Development party seem reluctant
to support rapprochement with the Assad regime after they have been attacking it
for 11 years, describing it as "a murderer and an oppressor." It also adopted
preemptive attempts to hold the regime responsible for any stumbling or failure
of rapprochement and normalization efforts. The media also focused on the
opposition of the United States and Iran to Türkiye's normalization with the
regime, which some observers saw as an attempt to show that there is a division
in the "Russia-Iran-Syria" axis. Meanwhile, Osman Sirte of Karar newspaper,
affiliated with the Democracy and Progress party, headed by Ali Babacan, and the
Future party, led by Ahmet Davutoglu, questioned Erdogan's intentions regarding
the rapprochement. Sirte asserted that no one opposes the rapprochement between
Türkiye and Syria but questioned Erdogan's methods.
He explained that there is no reason to persuade the refugees to return to Syria
because even the Syrians who live in their country are suffering from an
economic crisis, adding that nothing can guarantee that if the Turkish army
withdraws from northern Syria, civilians will not find a way into Türkiye. The
journalist believed the Syrian regime's participation in the fight against the
People's Defense Units was unrealistic. However, journalist of Daily Sabah Melih
Altinok said the refugee problem is pressuring Türkiye, and the reconciliation
with Damascus and Erdogan's talk of close meetings at a high level indicate that
the return of Syrian refugees to their country would accelerate in the coming
weeks.
A sudden demand
Former Turkish president Yasin Aktay came out with a surprising demand, saying
the best solution to return millions of Syrian refugees to their country is for
Aleppo to be under Türkiye's control. Aktay said in an interview on the Turkish
"Ulke" channel that Turkish control over Aleppo would reduce the number of
Syrian refugees in Türkiye, noting the power of the Assad regime and Russia over
Aleppo after horrific massacres led to a significant movement towards Türkiye.
The official pointed out that the current discussions of the Syrian refugees'
issue do not address the quality of life in Syria or the human rights situation.
Aktay believed Erdogan expected the government to send the refugees immediately
and without hesitation to their country, without considering the fate they could
face back home.
Sisi: We Did Not Waste Egypt's Money, ‘Current
Crisis’ Has Global Causes
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 January, 2023
Egypt’s president admitted that his country was going through an economic crisis
and called upon citizens to face challenges ahead. President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi
also blamed the crisis on global problems linked to the coronavirus pandemic and
the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Addressing Egyptians, Sisi urged the public to stop believing “nonsense”
regarding the economic situation. Sisi’s statements were made during the launch
of the activities of the first conference of the National Alliance for Civil
Development Work on Monday. “The world and Egypt are currently facing pressure
and harsh conditions on all people,” Sisi said. Sisi wondered “if people are
intimidated, then what will the result be?”. He also stressed that this will not
be in the interest of everyone, asking: “Will we abandon Egypt if the
circumstances are difficult?” He continued, “did we go to any unnecessary wars
or commit to risks in which we wasted Egypt’s money?”The whole world is facing
difficult conditions, and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and coronavirus pandemic
within two years were not made by Egypt, as Egypt pays for these crises like the
rest of the world. President Sisi said that the importance of the role of all
associations and entities operating within the framework of charitable work that
provide assistance in areas that the government alone cannot fulfill, praising
the well-coordinated and great role of the alliance, which has achieved great
results. He said that civil society organizations are playing a key role that
the government cannot play on its own. The president called on the alliance and
all civil society entities to intensify their efforts during 2023. Egypt
continues to battle surging inflation amid a dramatic slide of its currency as
many Egyptians struggle with price hikes. The IMF approved the $3 billion
support package for Egypt after a series of reforms, including the currency
devaluation that saw the pound lose more than 40% of its value against the
dollar since March 2022. The US currency traded Tuesday at 27.5 pounds for $1.
Russian warship holds drills in Norwegian Sea
MOSCOW (Reuters)/Tue, January 10, 2023
A Russian warship armed with hypersonic cruise weapons has held exercises in the
Norwegian Sea, the defence ministry said on Tuesday. "The crew of the frigate
'Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov' conducted an air defense
exercise in the Norwegian Sea," the ministry said. "The crew... conducted an
exercise to repel the means of an air attack of a simulated enemy in the
Norwegian Sea."Last week, President Vladimir Putin sent the frigate to the
Atlantic Ocean armed with new generation hypersonic cruise missiles, a signal to
the West that Russia will not back down over the war in Ukraine.nThe frigate is
armed with Zircon missiles which Russia says fly at nine times the speed of
sound and have a range of over 1,000 km (620 miles). Russia sees the weapons as
a way to pierce increasingly sophisticated U.S. missile defences which Putin has
warned could one day shoot down Russian nuclear missiles.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev last week warned the United States that
the hypersonic missiles would soon be close to NATO's shores.
Ukraine cannot win back territory without
Western tanks, say officials
Gavin Cordon and Sophie Wingate, PA Political Staff
Ukraine will not be able to take back significant territory from Russia without
an increase in fighting power – including tanks and other heavy armour, Western
officials have warned. Officials said the two sides were currently too closely
matched for the Ukrainians to be able to mount a successful offensive. The
warning comes as the UK Government is considering whether to become the first
Western power to supply the Ukrainians with main battle tanks in the form of
British Army Challenger 2s. The chairman of the Commons Defence Committee Tobias
Ellwood urged ministers to give the plan the green light, saying the West should
be doing “far more” to support Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky has been
pressing for months for Nato to provide his forces with US Abrams and
German-built Leopard II battle tanks. One Western official said that a reported
Ukrainian call for 300 tanks was “not and unreasonable number” to create
sufficient force “mass” for them to go on the offensive. “One of the elements
the Ukrainians lack in terms of capability are main battle tanks and armoured
personnel carriers (APCs) in sufficient number to support offensive manoeuvre
operations,” the official said.“The Ukrainians won’t be unable to win back
significant amounts of territory without changes to their force posture from
last year. The force ratios between the Russians and the Ukrainians are too
finely balanced. “Something needs to break that deadlock, especially if they
(the Ukrainians) are to win territory back and go on the offensive. Main battle
tanks and APCs are part of that mix.” Downing Street said no final decision had
been taken on the supply of Challenger 2s, but confirmed that there had been
discussion within the alliance on the issue of tanks. “For several months, we’ve
been working with partners around the provision of tanks and armoured vehicles,
artillery and air defence,” the prime minister’s official spokesman said. “The
Prime Minister spoke to President Zelensky just last week about what can be most
effective in helping Ukraine continue their progress.” There have been concerns
within Nato that supplying tanks could be regarded by the Russians as a further
escalation of the conflict. Poland, which operates Leopard IIs, has said that it
would consider handing over some to the Ukrainians, but only in concert with
other countries. Mr Ellwood said he very much welcomed the fact that the UK was
now looking at sending some of its heavy armour.
“This is our war, but we’ve left the Ukrainians to do the fighting,” he told BBC
Radio 4’s World At One programme. “It does show how far we’ve come in our
willingness to look (Russian President Vladimir) Putin in the eye and not be
spooked by his rhetoric, and we’re finally sending this much-needed serious
hardware to Ukraine. “Nato essentially has been benched. We should be doing far
more to put this fire out and we’re not doing that.” The latest discussion comes
after the US last week promised the 50 Bradley tank-killing armoured vehicles in
its biggest military assistance package to date for Ukraine.
Germany also announced it would supply around 40 Marder armoured personnel
carriers and France promised wheeled AMX-10 RC tank destroyers.
German minister promises Ukraine weapons, EU
accession help on surprise trip
(Reuters)/Tue, January 10, 2023
Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock made a surprise visit to the
eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv near the Russian border on Tuesday, promising
more weapons as well as "concrete offers" to help Ukraine join the European
Union. In a statement ahead of a meeting with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba,
Baerbock expressed Germany's solidarity with Ukrainians living through Russia's
invasion and harsh winter conditions. "This city is a symbol of the absolute
insanity of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and of the endless
suffering that people, especially here in the east of the country, are
confronted with every day," she said. After Germany last week promised to send
Marder fighting vehicles to Ukraine as part of increased military support,
Baerbock promised more weapons, without specifying which ones. "In Kharkiv we
can see the courage, the resilience and therefore the hope for a life in peace,"
Baerbock told a press conference after her arrival. Kuleba repeated Ukraine's
longstanding call for tanks and said he had no doubt that Berlin would
eventually give Kyiv the coveted Leopard 2 tanks. "I think that the German
government also understands somewhere deep in its soul that this decision will
be approved and the tanks will be given to Ukraine," he said. Kuleba added that
foot-dragging on the issue was costing lives but also thanked his German
counterpart for the aid so far. Baerbock also said it was important not to lose
sight of Ukraine's place in Europe and its desire to join the EU. "We as the
government want to make very concrete offers to Ukraine in order to make
progress in strengthening the rule of law, independent institutions and the
fight against corruption, as well as in aligning with EU standards," she said.
She said Germany would provide 20 million euros ($21.47 million) for demining
efforts and another 20 million euros to boost Ukraine's access to Starlink
internet terminals.
Wagner chief says he wants to seize a key
Ukrainian city for its vast network of caves and tunnels that could be used for
war
Sophia Ankel/Business Insider/Tue, January 10, 2023
Russia's Wagner Group has been fighting on the front lines in Bakhmut, Ukraine.
Founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said he wants to capture it because of its
"underground cities."Prigozhin is referring to a vast network of caves and salt
mines underneath the city. In recent weeks, mercenaries from the Wagner
paramilitary group have been fighting a bloody battle on the front lines in
Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, alongside Russian armed forces. Its founder, Yevgeny
Prigozhin, said over the weekend that he wants to seize the location because of
its vast tunnel network, which he termed "underground cities."In a Telegram post
on Saturday, Prigozhin outlined the group's intentions, saying: "The cherry on
the cake is the system of Soledar and Bakhmut mines, which is actually a network
of underground cities," according to a translation by Reuters. "It not only (has
the ability to hold) a big group of people at a depth of 80-100 meters, but
tanks and infantry fighting vehicles can also move about," he added. The
statement was published by Concord Management, the catering company founded by
Prigozhin which also distributes his press statements. Soledar is a city near
Bakhmut. Prigozhin, who has close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, is
referring to a winding labyrinth of caves and salt mines under Bakhmut. The
network consists of more than 100 miles of tunnels, according to Reuters and The
Times of London, and contains a large room that has previously hosted soccer
matches and classical music concerts. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in
February last year, tourists could visit the vaults, which also housed art
galleries and a subterranean winery, The Times of London reported. Prigozhin's
comments came after a White House official told Reuters last week that Prigozhin
has an "obsession" with the city of Bakhmut most likely for commercial reasons —
specifically the salt and gypsum in the mines. The US has also accused Wagner
Group troops of exploiting the natural resources in warzones in the Middle East
and Africa where they fought for Russia in other conflict. Western analysts have
previously questioned Wagner's heavy presence in Bakhmut, saying that the brutal
attack has little strategic value for Putin's overall mission in Ukraine. The
ongoing battle in Bakhmut has been bloody for both sides, with the fighting
being described as a "meat grinder" because of the high number of fatalities.
The exact figures are not known. Russian and Wagner forces have made some
tactical advances in the region, but are unlikely to capture Bakhmut imminently
because of the Ukrainian defense, according to an intelligence update from the
British Ministry of Defence on Tuesday.
Putin’s Secret ‘Squadron’ of Executioners
Exposed for Killing Own Men
Allison Quinn/Reuters/The Daily Beast/January 10, 2023
As convicted murderers and rapists quickly become Russia’s new “heroes” on the
battlefield in Ukraine, captured members of the notorious Wagner Group say
they’ve been stiffed on payment and witnessed public executions on the
frontline. “Those who disobey are eliminated—and it’s done publicly,” Yevgeny
Novikov, a former inmate recruited by Wagner, told Polygon Media and the
independent outlet Mozhem Obyasnit in a new report out Tuesday. Citing recorded
interviews the ex-Wagner fighters gave Ukrainian authorities, the publications
said they independently verified the men’s identities. The men’s accounts come
as pro-Kremlin military bloggers lavish the mercenary group with praise for a
major assault on the Ukrainian town of Soledar in the Donetsk region, where
British intelligence says Russia now controls a large chunk of territory. “It is
the ‘musicians’ who are freeing these cities,” one popular pro-war Telegram
channel wrote, using a popular nickname for Wagner. “The result speaks for
itself and you just have to give them their due.”
Former inmates say the reality is not so heroic.
“There are squadrons of liquidators there made up of [members of assault teams].
… Shelling began, one of the prisoners laid down and didn’t cover his own [men].
The shelling stopped, he went back, and the higher-up shouted to him: ‘Why
didn’t you go forward?’ And they killed him. The higher-up is killed if his team
deserts,” Novikov was quoted saying. ‘Putin’s Chef’ Is Personally Touring
Russian Prisons for Wagner Recruits to Fight in Ukraine, Reports Say. Another
former inmate identified as Alexander Drozdov, who was serving a sentence for
attempted murder, said the majority of the prisoners in Wagner’s ranks are
“completely insane” inmates freed from lengthy terms for drug offenses. They
“are very different from ordinary mercenaries, they are just fucked up and
bulldoze their way through,” Drozdov said. According to him, the mercenary group
makes clear distinctions between the prisoners and professional mercenaries,
making the two groups wear separate uniforms, while those “with HIV have their
own signs of ‘distinction’—a red bracelet on their arm.”
While Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has talked up the
prisoners-turned-mercenaries as “patriots” and “heroes,” one inmate said the
group made it clear to prisoners that they were forbidden from aligning
themselves with the private army. “You’re not Wagner, you’re a project, don’t
even call yourself [Wagner]. Because you are just a project,” inmate Sergei
Vershchagin was quoted saying. Vereshchagin said he was recruited and sent to
fight in Soledar after Wagner recruited him while he was serving time for a
double homicide. “They didn’t pay me any money,” he told Mozhem Obyasnit. The
deranged scheme to pump up Russia’s war machine using inmates considered
“disposable” has resulted in heavy losses among the freed prisoners, with The
Insider citing public data in early November to report more than 500 dead in
just two months. But perhaps that’s exactly what the Kremlin is counting on. Top
Kremlin Darling Shocks Putin Officials With Backstabbing Spree
Ukrainian intelligence said back in September that they believe Russia will
“eliminate all the prisoner-mercenaries in one way or another” once they finish
their battlefield stints. Prigozhin has already made a show of sending off the
first groups of inmates who completed their contracts with Wagner, though many
of them said they intended to sign up for another round. Drozdov, the inmate,
said the deaths among the ranks of Wagner’s assault teams were “absolutely
gigantic.”While the Kremlin has largely played dumb about Wagner’s activities in
Ukraine, it seems the Russian leader was on board with Prigozhin’s
prison-recruiting scheme all along: Members in the first group of inmates
recruited to fight were freed from prison before they ever even set foot on the
battlefield, thanks to a “secret” decree from Vladimir Putin, Eva Merkacheva, a
member of Russia’s Human Rights Council, told RIA Novosti on Monday.
The group is now apparently on the hunt for fresh recruits as they seek
reinforcements to help Russia take the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut. Olga
Romanova, the head of the human rights group Russia Behind Bars, said this week
that Wagner has launched recruiting efforts at prisons in Chechnya, according to
local media.
“Up until last week we would say that Wagner is everywhere except Chechnya. They
bypassed Chechnya. Now Wagner is everywhere, including Chechnya. They made a
deal with [Chechen leader Ramzan] Kadyrov,” Romanova said. She said the fresh
recruitment drive came after a long pause prompted by inmates fleeing the
frontline and turning themselves into Ukrainian authorities. When the number of
deserters began to skyrocket, a Telegram channel linked to Wagner released video
footage of the brutal sledgehammer execution of former inmate Yevgeny Nuzhin,
who went against the group after winding up in Ukrainian hands. Since then,
according to Romanova, would-be recruits are shown videos of other executions so
they know how the group deals with “traitors.”The group appears to be using the
same tactics to recruit ordinary Russians elsewhere. Several residents of St.
Petersburg—Prigozhin’s hometown and the site of the group’s first official
headquarters—told the outlet Vot Tak they had received cold calls from the
shadow army urging them to join. A 23-year-old man identified only as Artyom
told the publication he received a call from someone who said he was
representing Wagner and told him “we have a holy war against fascists and
faggots.” After Artyom made clear he wasn’t interested, the man reportedly grew
frustrated, saying, “The Wagner Center in St. Petersburg is located at 15
Zolnaya Street. If you want to repay your homeland or help in some way, come—we
won’t hurt you.”“Nobody’s threatening you, but keep in mind we live in the same
city.”
French PM to unveil pension changes that upset
many workers
Associated Press/January 10, 2023
French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne is to unveil on Tuesday a highly sensitive
pension overhaul aimed at pushing up the retirement age that has already
prompted vigorous criticism and calls for protests from leftist opponents and
worker unions. The minimum retirement age to be entitled to a full pension is
expected to be gradually increased from 62 to 64 or 65, in line with a
longstanding pledge by President Emmanuel Macron. Details are to be released by
Borne at a news conference. The government argues that French people live longer
than they used to and therefore need to work longer to make the pension system
financially sustainable. All French workers receive a state pension. Center-left
and hard-left worker unions unanimously expressed their disapproval of the
proposed changes after talks with Borne last week. Some are in favor of an
increase in payroll contributions paid by employers instead. The country's eight
main worker unions are gathering on Tuesday to set the date of a first protest
day against the pension changes. A heated debate at parliament also is to be
expected. Macron's centrist alliance lost its parliamentary majority last year —
and most opposition parties are opposed to the changes. Macron's lawmakers hope
to be able to ally with members of the conservative The Republicans party to
pass the measure. Otherwise, the government may use a special power to force the
law through parliament without a vote — at the price of much criticism. The
pension reform is an electoral promise from Macron, who failed to implement a
similar measure during his first term. The proposal at that time sparked
nationwide strikes and protests, before the COVID-19 crisis led the government
to postpone the changes. Macron was reelected for a second term last year.
France's Retirement Guidance Council issued a report last year showing that the
pension system is expected to have a deficit over the next decade, with the
government having to compensate. The minimum retirement age applies to people
who have worked enough years to qualify. Those who do not fulfil the conditions,
like many women who interrupt their career to raise their children and people
who did long studies and started their career late, must work until 67 to retire
without penalty. The average pension this year stands at 1,400 euros per month
($1,500 per month) once taxes are deducted. But that average masks differences
across pension schemes depending on professions.
Over the past three decades, French governments have made numerous changes to
the system but each reform has been met with massive demonstrations.
Armenia cancels military drills, widening rift with Moscow
YEREVAN, Armenia (AP)/January 10, 2023
The prime minister of Armenia said Tuesday that his country has refused to host
military drills planned by a Russia-dominated security pact, an announcement
that reflected the Armenian government's growing tensions with Moscow. Nikol
Pashinyan has repeatedly criticized Russian peacekeepers for failure to secure
free transit along a corridor linking Armenia and the separatist region of
Nagorno-Karabakh that Azerbaijani activists have blocked since last month.
Speaking at a news conference Tuesday, Pashinyan said that Armenia considers the
military exercise the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization
planned for later this year “inappropriate in the current situation.”“At least
this year, these drills won't take place,” he said. Pashinyan's move followed
his refusal in the fall to sign a conclusive document from a meeting of the
leaders of CSTO member nations in Yerevan, Armenia's capital. Nagorno-Karabakh
lies within Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces
backed by Yerevan since a separatist war there ended in 1994. That conflict left
not only Nagorno-Karabakh itself but large chunks of surrounding lands in
Armenian hands. In 44 days of heavy fighting that began in September 2020, the
Azerbaijani military routed Armenian forces, forcing Yerevan to accept a
Russia-brokered peace deal that saw the return to Azerbaijan of a significant
part of Nagorno-Karabakh. The agreement also required Armenia to hand over
swaths of land it held outside the separatist region. Lachin province, which
lies between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, was the last of the three areas on
the rim of Nagorno-Karabakh that Armenian forces surrendered in December 2020.
Russia deployed nearly 2,000 peacekeepers for at least five years to ensure safe
transit across the region, to monitor the peace deal and to help refugees
return.
But travel across the Lachin corridor has been blocked since Dec. 12 by
Azerbaijani activists, who demanded access to what Azerbaijan has described as
unlawful mining sites in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian authorities have described
the blockade as part of efforts by Azerbaijan to extend its control over the
region and urged the Russian peacekeepers to unblock the road. The Azerbaijani
move has left Russia in a precarious position. Armenia hosts a Russian military
base, and Moscow has been the country's top ally and sponsor. But the Kremlin
also has sought to maintain warm ties with oil-rich Azerbaijan. Western
sanctions over the Russian invasion of Ukraine have made Russia increasingly
dependent on Azerbaijan's main ally, Turkey. With its attention focused on the
fighting in Ukraine, Russia has taken a wait-and-see attitude on the Lachin
corridor blockade, angering Armenia. “Russia's military presence in Armenia not
only fails to guarantee its security, but it raises security threats for
Armenia,” Pashinyan said Tuesday. He noted that the blockade of the Lachin
corridor is intended to “break the will of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh,"
adding that Armenia will also seek support from the U.S. and the European Union
to help ease the tensions with Azerbaijan.
After the Russian peacekeepers' five-year mandate is over, Armenia could invite
U.N. peacekeepers to come in “if Russia fails to fulfill its function to ensure
security for the population of Nagorno-Karabakh,” Pashinyan said. The
Russia-brokered 2020 peace deal also called for the creation of a transportation
link between Azerbaijani and its Nakchivan exclave via Armenian territory.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused Armenia on Tuesday of reneging on its
promise to provide such a transit corridor. “Whether Armenia wants it or not, it
will be implemented,” Aliyev said in televised remarks, describing the corridor
to Nakchivan as Azerbaijan's “natural right.” He added, though, that Azerbaijan
has no plans to wage another war against Armenia. Asked to comment on Armenia's
decision to cancel the planned military drills, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
said Moscow would ask Yerevan to clarify its position. “In any case, Armenia is
our close ally, and we will continue our dialogue, including the most complex
issues,” he told reporters. Peskov previously rejected a claim by the secretary
of Armenia's Security Council that Moscow had pressured Armenia to join a union
of Russia and Belarus. Commenting on the claim Tuesday, Pashinyan said that
Moscow had not made any official request to that effect but noted that “the
reality isn't as simple as it seems." He added: “Sometimes, it's not the text
but the subtext that needs to be considered.” “Armenia's sovereignty is an
absolute value," the prime minister said.
Israeli president urges polarised politicians
to 'lower the temperature'
JERUSALEM (Reuters)/Tue, January 10, 2023
President Isaac Herzog appealed to Israeli politicians on Tuesday to "lower the
temperature" amid confrontional exchanges between the new hardline nationalist
coalition government and the centre-left opposition. Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu, who has returned to power after 12 years as premier until 2021, heads
a bloc composed of his conservative Likud party and hard-right and religious
parties who secured a clear victory in the November elections. His inclusion of
the Religious Zionism and Jewish Power parties has stirred concern at home and
abroad given their leaders' calls for annexing occupied land that Palestinians
seek for a state, as well as past agitation against Israel's justice system, the
country's Arab minority and LGBTQ rights. "This is a sensitive and explosive
time in Israeli public life...I appeal to you, elected representatives and
citizens from across the public and political spectrum: Exercise restraint and
act responsibly. We need to calm things down and lower the temperature," Herzog
said in a Twitter post. He spoke shortly after Jewish Power parliamentary deputy
Zvika Fogel said that four leading members of the opposition, including its
centrist leader and former premier Yair Lapid, "are the most dangerous people
there are at this moment. "They are calling for war," Fogel said in an interview
with public media. "If they were calling for protests, I would give them every
right to protest but they are speaking in terms that I am the enemy - they are
speaking in terms of war.""For me that's treason against the state..., and yes,
that's grounds for imprisonment," he added. Israeli police said they had
arrested a motorist for endangering a group of demonstrators - who Lapid
identified as supporters of his party - in the southern city of Beersheba by
driving onto the sidewalk and halting right in front of them. In response, Lapid
said in a Twitter post: "The government's incitement will end in bloodshed." In
a subsequent comment on Fogel's remarks, he tweeted: "This is how democracy
implodes." Benny Gantz, another senior opposition figure and a former defence
minister, urged Netanyahu to rein in his far-right coalition partners. "I call
on you to condemn the attack on the demonstrators and the harsh statements and
act to bridge the divisions in the nation and not to deepen them," Gantz said.
Netanyahu later appeared to take issue with Fogel's remarks while also
criticising opposition broadsides against the new government, saying demonising
one's opponents was unacceptable in a democracy.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 10-11/2023
Africa's Sahel Region: Enter Russia's Wagner Group
to Make It Worse
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/January 10, 2023
Sahel states such as Mali do not possess the essential services to deliver to
their impoverished and ethnically divided constituents. These economic and
social shortcomings render national governments vulnerable to the challenge
posed by sub-state jihadist groups affiliated with the Islamic State and Al
Qaeda.
The decline in security not only permitted both terrorist groups to expand their
area of operations in the Sahel but also to Atlantic coastal states of West
Africa such as Benin.
Moscow also seized upon this security vacuum as an opportunity to dispatch
Russia's Wagner Group mercenaries to Mali, where the military junta apparently
hopes to use the Wagner to coup-proof the regime.
When France closed down its ten year anti-terrorist deployment to the Sahel, it
enabled JNIM to extend its deadly reach to the border regions of Cote d'Ivoire
(Ivory Coast) and Niger, and even as far as Togo.
One thing is certain: since the arrival of the Wagner Group, reports of civilian
atrocities have increased and the overall security status of Mali has
dramatically worsened.
The departure of France's troops from Mali in April, followed by the June 2022
shutdown of the French-led multilateral European Special Forces "Task Force
Takuba," created a security vacuum in the region. Pictured: A French Marine
Special Operation Forces officer trains Malian soldiers as part of Task Force
Takuba, in Mali's Menaka army base, on December 7, 2021.
The Islamic Jihadist challenge to the legitimacy and sovereignty of
post-colonial nation-states throughout the entire expanse of the African
continent's Sahel region is seriously worsening.
To begin with, the internecine warfare between jihadist groups in the West
African states of the Sahel, just south of the Sahara Desert, has become an
existential threat to the legitimacy of the region's national governments.
Warring Sahel-based Islamist terrorist groups are competing with nation-state
administrations as potent alternative models for governance. Sahel states such
as Mali do not possess the essential services to deliver to their impoverished
and ethnically divided constituents. These economic and social shortcomings
render national governments vulnerable to the challenge posed by sub-state
jihadist groups affiliated with the Islamic State and Al Qaeda. The departure of
France's troops from Mali in April, followed by the June 2022 shutdown of the
French-led multilateral European Special Forces "Task Force Takuba," created a
security vacuum in the region.
After the withdrawal of European forces, the consequent reduction in regional
security was immediately exploited by pro-Al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates.
The decline in security not only permitted both terrorist groups to expand their
area of operations in the Sahel but also to Atlantic coastal states of West
Africa such as Benin. Moscow also seized upon this security vacuum as an
opportunity to dispatch Russia's Wagner Group mercenaries to Mali, where the
military junta apparently hopes to use the Wagner to coup-proof the regime,
while Russia apparently hopes to mine valuable minerals in the country.
Al-Qaeda's West African affiliate "Ja'maat Nasr Al-Islam wal Muslimin" (JNIM), a
coalition of several minor jihadist groups in the Sahel, established in 2017 ,
however, seems to be becoming a lethal threat to Mali's central government. JNIM,
although it is the dominant force in rural Mali, is also strong in rural Burkina
Faso. JNIM receives some financial support from Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
(AQIM) headquartered in Algeria. JNIM reportedly raises additional funds from
its role in the region's illicit economy, particularly in Burkina Faso, through
vehicle theft, logging and kidnapping When France closed down its ten year
anti-terrorist deployment to the Sahel, it enabled JNIM to extend its deadly
reach to the border regions of Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) and Niger, and even
as far as Togo.
The Islamic State's regional affiliate, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara
(ISGS), has been renamed the Islamic State in the Sahel. The group has
maintained its independence of action by continuing to challenge JNIM in the
Sahel along with conducting attacks against national government interests. ISGS
also has expanded its area of operations following France's troop withdrawal
from Mali as the terrorist outfit has spread out all along the tri-border region
of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The Islamic State's ideological profile in the
Sahel is that of a strict Sunni Salafi-Jihadist sect but it is also infamous for
its atrocities against civilians. ISGS is committed to the enforcement of "Hudud"
(Islamic criminal law): punishments for personal behavior -- such as theft,
blasphemy, apostasy, adultery and homosexuality, among other transgressions --
forbidden by the Koran.
According to the United States Military Academy's "Combating Terrorism Center,"
pitched battles between the Al-Qaeda and Islamic State in Africa have been most
intense along the Mali-Burkina Faso border. After the withdrawal of French
troops, Mali's military junta, installed by a coup in May 2021, welcomed
Russia's offer of counter-terrorist assistance.
Russia's Wagner Group began deploying to Mali in December 2021. The Wagner
Group's game plan for Mali, as in its past involvement in the Central African
Republic, will probably consist of the Malian junta's granting Wagner rights to
the country's diamond deposits. It is not certain, however, if the Malian regime
has sovereign control of these diamond mines: those areas are infested with
criminal and sub-state militia forces.
One thing is certain: since the arrival of the Wagner Group, reports of civilian
atrocities have increased and the overall security status of Mali has
dramatically worsened. The atrocities appear mostly in areas of Mali where
support for the country's Jihadist terrorists is strong, as in the
southern-central village of Moura, controlled by Islamic extremists.
Consequently, the women and children slaughtered are deemed by Mali's regime and
its Wagner Group allies as families of the Jihadists, particularly among the
largely Peuhl ethnic group, many of whom have been recruited by Islamic
terrorists.
There is also evidence that Mali's Islamic militias linked to both Al-Qaeda and
the Islamic State have murdered scores of civilians. Despite the negative impact
on security that Wagner Group mercenaries have had in Mali, there are reports
that the Russia mercenary militia organization are currently in talks with
neighboring Burkina Faso where Jihadist operations continue to spread.
*Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense
Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in
the Air Force Reserve.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
China Cements its Position in the Middle East
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/January 10/2023
Saudi Arabia is now not only one of China's most important suppliers of energy,
but the kingdom is also an important link in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
-- a gigantic global development project to enhance China's global influence
from East Asia to Europe by making countries worldwide increasingly dependent on
China. Under the BRI, China has signed cooperation agreements with 20 Arab
countries.
China is also Saudi Arabia's largest trading partner -- an arrangement that
extends to military cooperation....
Biden took a longstanding ally, Saudi Arabia, and, by repeating that he would
make the kingdom a "pariah nation," created an adversary. "For an American
president to be silent on the issue of human rights is inconsistent with who we
are and who I am," Biden said. The same concern for human rights has not seemed
to bother him, however, when it comes to China or Iran, whose record on human
rights is at least as bad as Saudi Arabia's, if not worse.
China jumped in to fill the vacuum.
Xi Jinping has made no secret of his wishes to "replace America as the global
superpower" economically, militarily, diplomatically and technologically by
2049. The United States might be "well poised to lead," but is it leading?
When Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Saudi Arabia on December 7 for his
first visit since 2016, he was welcomed with a lavish reception. The contrast to
the low-key reception of US President Joe Biden last July could hardly have been
greater. Pictured: The Chinese and the Saudi flags fly in Riyadh, on December 7,
2022, ahead of Xi's visit to the Saudi capital. When Chinese President Xi
Jinping arrived in Saudi Arabia on December 7 for his first visit since 2016, he
was welcomed with a lavish reception. Fighter jets escorted his plane into Saudi
airspace, a purple carpet was rolled out, and cannons were fired. Saudi Arabia's
de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), welcomed Xi the next
day with a ceremony, during which Xi's car was escorted by members of the Saudi
Royal Guard on horseback and carrying the flags of both countries, followed by a
welcoming banquet.
The contrast to the low-key reception of US President Joe Biden last July could
hardly have been greater. Biden took a longstanding ally, Saudi Arabia, and, by
repeating that he would make the kingdom a "pariah nation," created an
adversary.
"For an American president to be silent on the issue of human rights is
inconsistent with who we are and who I am," Biden said. The same concern for
human rights has not seemed to bother him, however, when it comes to China or
Iran, whose record on human rights is at least as bad as Saudi Arabia's, if not
worse.
China jumped in to fill the vacuum.
Saudi Arabia is now not only one of China's most important suppliers of energy
-- a leading American industry that the Biden administration abandoned on day
one -- but the kingdom is also an important link in China's Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) -- a gigantic global development project that Chinese President
Xi Jinping launched in 2013 to build an economic and infrastructure network
connecting Asia with Europe, Africa and beyond. The BRI seeks dramatically to
enhance China's global influence from East Asia to Europe by making countries
worldwide increasingly dependent on China. Under the BRI, China has signed
cooperation agreements with 20 Arab countries.
China is also Saudi Arabia's largest trading partner -- an arrangement that
extends to military cooperation, which China's Minister of National Defense, Wei
Fenghe, and Saudi Arabia's Deputy Defense Minister, Khalid bin Salman, agreed to
boost in January.
During Xi's visit, furthering the continued expansion and deepening of ties
between the two countries, Saudi Arabia and China signed a series of strategic
deals, including a "comprehensive strategic partnership agreement" and another
with Huawei Technologies on cloud computing, data centers and building high-tech
complexes in Saudi cities. The two countries also signed numerous agreements on
hydrogen energy, Chinese language education, digital economy, and an "alignment
plan" between China's BRI and Saudi Arabia's economic diversification program.
Chinese and Saudi firms additionally signed 34 deals on investment in green
energy, information technology, cloud services, transport, construction and
other sectors, estimated to be worth around $30 billion.
In an op-ed published in the Saudi newspaper Al Riyadh, Xi described his visit
to the kingdom as ushering in "a new era in China's relations with the Arab
world, with Arab states of the Gulf, and with Saudi Arabia." He also highlighted
the inroads that China made in the Middle East in recent years:
"China has established comprehensive strategic partnership or strategic
partnership with 12 Arab states, and signed documents on Belt and Road
cooperation with 20 Arab states."
At the end of Xi's visit to Saudi Arabia, he participated in two inaugural
summits, which he described as "milestone events in the history of China-Arab
relations": the China-Arab summit and the China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
summit.
China's visit to Saudi Arabia and the two summits can be said to represent a
culmination, thus far, of China's attempts to take over the Middle East:
non-violent means of gaining power over the entire region, as described by Dr.
Mordechai Chaziz, author of the book, China's Middle East Diplomacy: The Belt
and Road Strategic Partnership:
"The connection between the BRI and the strategic partnerships it creates in the
region... allows it to gradually take over the region without creating tensions
with the U.S. or the West. In other words, the BRI is a sophisticated Chinese
plan to transfer hegemony from the West and the U.S. to China without war or
conflict."At the China-GCC Summit on December 9, Xi told Arab Gulf leaders that
China would work to buy oil and gas from them and pay in Chinese yuan, a move
that China and Saudi Arabia have previously discussed. Such a change could be
highly disruptive to the US, especially if it were to be used throughout the
Gulf. Using the yuan would considerably bolster China in its ambition to
strengthen the yuan while weakening the US dollar's status as the world's
reserve currency -- and potentially weakening the US still further
internationally. The status of the US dollar depends on its dominance of global
markets, especially the oil market, where 80% of sales are conducted in US
dollars.
Xi, in his speech to the Arab Gulf leaders at the China-GCC summit, said that in
the next three to five years China would work with the Gulf countries on a
number of priority areas that would include the following:
All-dimensional energy cooperation, including settling oil and gas trade in yuan;
"peaceful use" of nuclear technology, including the establishment of a China-GCC
nuclear security demonstration center; finance and investment cooperation,
including the setting up of a joint investment commission, a China-GCC forum on
industrial and investment cooperation and deepening digital currency
cooperation; expanding new areas of cooperation on innovation, science and
technology with China setting up big data and cloud computing centers in the
Gulf countries, strengthening 5G and 6G technology cooperation and setting up a
China-GCC cooperation mechanism in meteorological science and technology;
aerospace cooperation, including the possible establishment of a China-GCC joint
center for lunar and deep space exploration.
Finally, Xi mentioned China's use of its soft power to increase its influence by
"nurturing new highlights in language and cultural cooperation." He said that
China will "cooperate" with 300 universities, and middle and primary schools in
GCC countries on Chinese language education and work with GCC countries to set
up Chinese language learning and testing centers and online Chinese classes. He
also suggested a China-GCC language and culture forum, and the compilation of "a
bilingual library for people-to-people and cultural exchanges and mutual
learning."
At the China-GCC Summit, Xi did not fail to mention the strides that China has
made for itself in gaining influence in the Middle East.
"China and Arab states have set an example for South-South cooperation in
pursuing mutually beneficial collaboration. The two sides have established 17
cooperation mechanisms under the framework of the China-Arab States Cooperation
Forum. Over the past decade, our trade has grown by 100 billion U.S. dollars,
with the total volume exceeding 300 billion dollars; China's direct investment
in Arab states was up by 2.6 times, with the stock of investment reaching 23
billion dollars; over 200 Belt and Road projects have been carried out,
benefiting nearly two billion people of the two sides."
Xi's visit to Saudi Arabia and his meetings with Arab state leaders put on
display the influence that China wields in the Middle East, a fact that was not
lost on the United States, which has been warning about China's influence in the
region.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on December 7:
"We are mindful of the influence that China is trying to grow around the world.
The Middle East is certainly one of those regions where they want to deepen
their level of influence.
"We believe that many of the things they're trying to pursue and the manner in
which they're trying to pursue it [sic] are not conducive to preserving the
international rules-based order...We are not asking nations to choose between
the United States and China, but as the president has said many times, we
believe that in this strategic competition the United States is certainly well
poised to lead."
"Competition"? Xi has made no secret of his wishes to "replace America as the
Global Superpower" economically, militarily, diplomatically and technologically
by 2049. The United States might be "well poised to lead," but is it leading?
Kirby's warnings, unfortunately, constitute too little, much too late.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished
Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The Illusions of Process in Syria
Robert Ford//Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 10/2023
There were big demonstrations last Friday in parts of Syria rejecting a
rapprochement between Bashar al-Assad’s government and Türkiye. Maybe I am too
cynical, and I must acknowledge my many mistakes when I worked on the Syria file
ten years ago but my opinion in short is: this is a political game between Turks
in an election year and it also is President Erdogan’s effort to gain a little
more advantage for vital Turkish interests in northern Syria against Damascus,
Moscow and against Rojova.
First, the election politics in Ankara are difficult for Erdogan. Among the
issues in Turkish politics, a new start with Syria is popular among the Turkish
people. According to a December Turkish opinion survey by Metropoll Pulse, 59
percent of Turks want Erdogan to talk to Assad while only 29 percent opposed
that. The value of a meeting with Assad and the pledge to Turkish voters that
Erdogan will launch a new policy towards Syria and the challenge of refugees is
obvious. Erdogan needs to show at least a process is beginning. Remember the
word: process. There are some new bilateral working groups after the meeting of
the Russian, Turkish and Syrian defense ministers. Probably the three foreign
ministers will meet. Maybe the three presidents will meet before the elections
or Erdogan will pledge that he will meet Assad. He can claim there is a process.
Meanwhile, Assad doesn’t like or trust Erdogan. The Russians are exerting
pressure on Assad to accept a process, and he will demand a reward from them.
The Emirati Foreign Minister visited Damascus again and perhaps discussed ways
to convince Assad to accept a meeting. It reminds me of the heavy American focus
on the process during the Bush father and Clinton administrations thirty years
ago as they pursued peace between Israel and the Palestinians. We saw many
working groups, aid packages and meetings with Israelis and Palestinians.
Working groups and meetings result in great photographs but ask the Palestinians
what that process produced. Only concessions, compromises and hard choices bring
lasting rapprochement. Neither Damascus or Ankara offer any real concessions or
compromises.
Turkish Defense Minister Akar’s January 6 remarks to the Turkish media that
Türkiye will not accept a new wave of refugees from Syria had three clear
messages. First, he was telling Damascus and Moscow that Ankara will not accept
a new Russian-Syrian offensive to seize Idlib and north Aleppo. He had a second
message that was very timely: in the United Nations in New York this week,
Moscow should not impede humanitarian aid deliveries from Türkiye to Idlib and
northern Aleppo that would provoke thousands of desperate Syrian displaced
people to try to enter Türkiye to escape starvation. Akar’s third message was
more implicit but also clear: the Turkish occupation in northern Syria will
remain until there is an arrangement that Ankara – and the displaced - accept.
And for real political (and economic) reasons, Assad won’t welcome the refugees
in any foreseeable future.
Akar also said on January 6 that Türkiye will continue to fight against
terrorists. He pointed directly at the autonomous region in northern Syria under
the control of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party and its People's
Protection Units YPG militia connected to Türkiye’s number one enemy, the
Kurdish Workers Party. Akar also stated that Assad’s forces cannot destroy the
autonomous administration. Assad’s Syria is weak economically and militarily and
this fact will not change. Akar thus acknowledged the limited value to Ankara of
rapprochement with Damascus. Because domestic politics in Türkiye demand a
process, Akar in Moscow accepted new joint patrols with Russians and Syrians
along the shared border. Joint patrols perhaps will constrain the PYD’s
autonomous administration a little but they will not eliminate it.
At the most we might see cooperation between Ankara, Moscow and Damascus for
weak Syrian and Russian forces to seize more control of Manbij and Tal Rafaat in
north-central Syria. However, for the future as far as we can see, the
autonomous administration and therefore the Turkish occupation will stay
regardless of Assad’s rejection. Since the autonomous administration, the YPG
and its SDF will stay, Washington’s response has been mild. The American envoy
for Syria repeated last week that Washington will offer nothing to Syria, and
the Americans have nothing to offer Türkiye on the Syria issue. But imagine if
new Turkish and Syrian embassies opened in the two capitals. Of course,
Washington would object and then? The YPG and its SDF would still welcome
American cooperation, economic aid and protection, and Washington would continue
with SDF partners to fight little ISIS remnants that appear in eastern Syria.
That American mission doesn’t resolve the ISIS problem in Syria or the Syrian
conflict. Washington knows this, but domestic politics in America also demand a
process in Syria.
**Robert Ford is a former US ambassador to Syria and Algeria and a senior fellow
at the Middle East Institute for Near East Policy in Washington
New York Voters Put Democrats on Notice. Was
the Message Received?
Mara Gay/The New York Times/January, 10/2023
Just two months after New York voters delivered New York Democrats a drubbing at
the polls, it’s not clear if the message is penetrating the party’s thicket of
dysfunction and hubris.
The hubris made an appearance over the holiday, when the governor approved a 29
percent pay raise that the State Legislature gave itself in December. And the
Democratic Party chairman, Jay Jacobs, remains in his post, never mind the
shellacking his party received in November, in which Republicans flipped four
House seats and came surprisingly close to taking the governor’s mansion in a
heavily Democratic state.
Most concerning, Gov. Kathy Hochul and the State Legislature, which began its
new session this week, appear prepared to return to business as usual, which
means cautiously tinkering with policy while they are fixated on crises of their
own making. The first questions before the Legislature include whether to
approve Ms. Hochul’s choice for chief judge of the New York State Court of
Appeals, whom liberals oppose because of his conservative-leaning rulings in
labor, abortion and criminal justice cases — as well as more mundane headaches,
like whether to remove a newly elected Republican assemblyman who is facing
questions about whether he lives in the borough he was elected to serve. Back in
the real world, New York is suffering.
A crisis in confidence over public safety in the state, made worse by persistent
concerns over gun violence and hate crimes, continues, even as it’s clear some
progress is being made.
Unemployment in the state remained higher than the national rate in 2022, and it
is especially high in New York City, where unemployment averaged 6.2 percent,
according to an analysis from the state’s comptroller. Among Black residents in
New York City, that figure was more than 10 percent.
More and more, living in New York is out of reach not just for working-class or
middle-class residents but nearly anyone without a trust fund. If the governor
and Legislature tried apartment hunting in New York City right now, they would
discover that the median rent for a two-bedroom apartment in New York City this
January is $4,890 — more than 20 percent higher than this time last year. Little
wonder then, that 67,000 people slept in city shelters this week, more than
20,000 of them children.
What is required from Albany is not business as usual, but bold, swift action on
the issues that residents in the state are confronting in their daily lives.
That means finding new and creative ways to expand the state’s economy and
improve public safety, including by further strengthening its gun laws. Among
the bright spots last year was a measure that Ms. Hochul pushed for in the wake
of the mass shooting in Buffalo, which made the red flag laws barring
individuals who may pose a risk to themselves or others from obtaining a firearm
more effective. In the six months after the law was changed, judges approved
more than 2,000 such orders, a significant increase from the year before,
according to the Albany Times Union newspaper.
New York needs Ms. Hochul and the Legislature to deliver that kind of relentless
focus on housing. The way to begin is to do everything possible to spur housing
production.
For one thing, this means coming up with a new kind of tax incentive for
developers that encourages more truly affordable housing. The state’s previous
program, known as 421a, mostly created units for high-income people even as it
cost taxpayers $1.7 billion per year. Albany allowed it to expire last year
without replacing it. In December, the governor said she would build 800,000
units of housing in the state over the next decade. That’s good, but the harder
task is to push for zoning and tax changes across the state that will allow the
region to build the multifamily housing needed to truly end the crisis and let
New York grow. Voters will know Ms. Hochul and the Legislature are serious about
the housing crisis when they start fighting — hard — to build multifamily
housing in suburban areas like Long Island, where it is decades overdue. The
governor backed off similar proposals last year, wary that doing so might
alienate voters in Long Island, where multifamily housing has historically been
unwelcome. In the end, Long Island voted Republican anyway.
Ms. Hochul and other Democrats should discard this tepid, safe approach to
policymaking. It is failing the state, as well as the party. Ideally, the
governor can work with local communities to build support for zoning changes to
permit multifamily housing. But the governor can also make clear that
infrastructure dollars for Long Island are contingent on welcoming the housing
the region needs.
The failure to boldly address central issues like housing is in part why, while
Democrats outperformed expectations nationally, the outcome in New York was just
the opposite.
New York Democrats bungled their shot at congressional mapmaking last year, then
went on to lose four House seats, a series of events that was not only
embarrassing for the state party, but played a pivotal role in delivering the
House into Republican hands. Democrats lost several State Assembly seats, too,
though they held on to their supermajority, thanks to a more than 2:1 advantage
in registered voters that Democrats enjoy in New York. In spite of that
overwhelming advantage, Governor Hochul won re-election with just 53.2 percent
of the vote in November. For comparison, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan motivated
voters in a decidedly less Democratic swing state and was re-elected by a much
larger margin.
Netanyahu’s Potential Friction Points with
Biden (Part 2): Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, and Domestic Issues
David Makovsky/The Washington Institute/January 10/2023
The prime minister will need a great deal of U.S. military and diplomatic
assistance to achieve his foreign policy imperatives—a fact he should not forget
when mulling potentially divisive moves at home.
In a Knesset speech kicking off his new government on December 29, Israeli prime
minister Binyamin Netanyahu listed his four main priorities: “First of all, to
block Iran...Second, to restore the security and governance within the State of
Israel...Third, to deal with the cost of living and the housing
problem...Fourth, to dramatically expand the circle of peace.” The last item was
taken as a reference to normalizing relations with additional Arab states,
particularly Saudi Arabia. Both this goal and the implied reference to
countering Iran’s hostile regional and nuclear activities will require active
assistance from the Biden administration.
In return, U.S. officials have hinted that they want to extract commitments from
Israel on other key matters, including the Palestinian issues covered in Part 1
of this PolicyWatch. In their view, some of the demands being made by
Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners are inconsistent with his regional
strategic objectives.
Countering Iran
The Iran threat—which Netanyahu called “existential” in his Knesset speech—has
defined much of his political career since his first premiership in the
mid-1990s. In theory, it should be a less divisive issue with the White House
today compared to Netanyahu’s previous tenure, which ended in June 2021. After
months of fruitless nuclear negotiations with Iran, domestic protests against
the regime’s human rights abuses, and Iranian military support for Russia’s war
against Ukraine, the U.S. government has indicated that it is temporarily
shelving efforts to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),
which Netanyahu vociferously opposed.
Yet Israel is all too aware that the nuclear threat itself cannot be
shelved—Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile has reportedly grown to the point
where the regime could produce four to five bombs’ worth of weapons-grade
material in less than two months. In a December 15 interview with Al-Arabiya,
Netanyahu declared: “I’m committed to do whatever I can do to prevent Iran from
having a nuclear arsenal. I naturally won’t itemize that here, but that’s a firm
commitment that I’ve made to myself and to the people of Israel...I want to
protect ourselves against Iran’s aggression, and against a regime that openly
calls for the annihilation of my country.” He then noted he would take the
necessary measures “with or without an agreement” with Washington.
Israel has several specific concerns about what might happen in the next few
months and years. For instance, some of the nuclear deal’s most important
restrictions will be lifted soon: the ban on developing nuclear-capable
ballistic missiles expires in October 2023, and the option to trigger UN
“snapback” sanctions expires in October 2025. Israel seems intent on building up
its military option before the latter date.
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett has argued that Netanyahu failed to
prepare the military for a conventional confrontation with Iran, relying instead
on covert sabotage and assassination campaigns. Yet it is unclear if Israel can
build a credible strike capability on its own. Officials have mentioned the
possibility of using KC-46 refueling tankers from the United States to carry out
the multiple waves of strikes needed to break through Iran’s hardened nuclear
facilities, including the Fordow mountain complex. The first of these tankers
are not scheduled to arrive until October 2025, however, and the Pentagon has
rejected requests to move Israel up in the queue. Some believe that more strike
aircraft are required as well, but further deliveries of U.S. fighter jets may
be complicated by a technical issue: Israeli officials say the Pentagon has not
approved their request to integrate Israeli weapons technology into the advanced
F-35.
Meanwhile, a joint exercise in November featured a U.S. KC-135 tanker refueling
an Israeli jet—an apparent message to Iran. More such displays are expected this
year.
With the JCPOA off the table for now, there are indications that Washington may
be willing to reframe its approach to the nuclear program as a more ambitious
“longer and stronger” policy involving lengthier enrichment restrictions. Israel
has long advocated this approach, but Tehran has flatly rejected it, and the
prospects seem dim for actually pursuing such a deal when the parties failed to
even revive the JCPOA. In any case, Biden and Netanyahu will need to work
together to develop a common strategy on Iran.
Normalizing with Saudi Arabia
Netanyahu was more explicit about “widening the circle of peace” in his December
15 interview with Al-Arabiya: “I’m referring to what could be a truly remarkable
historic peace with Saudi Arabia. Mind you, I’m committed to deepening and
strengthening the remarkable Abraham Accords that we’ve had with our neighbors,
but I think the peace with Saudi Arabia will serve two purposes. It will be a
quantum leap for an overall peace between Israel and the Arab world. It will
change our region in ways that are unimaginable. And I think it will facilitate,
ultimately, a Palestinian-Israeli peace. I believe in that. I intend to pursue
it. Of course, it’s up to the leadership of Saudi Arabia if they want to partake
in this effort. I certainly hope they would.”
For their part, top Saudi officials have given various visiting American
delegations three conditions for more explicit ties with Israel—and all three
are dependent on U.S. action:
Upgrading the U.S.-Saudi strategic relationship and securing written commitments
for American action if the kingdom is attacked
Ensuring a reliable flow of U.S. weapons, including delivery of existing
purchases and resumption of offensive weapons sales, which were halted in
February 2021
Establishing civilian nuclear energy cooperation, including the ability to
enrich uranium (Washington is loath to offer enrichment capabilities to any
partner)
To facilitate normalization with Arab leaders, Netanyahu tends to offer them
help on improving their ties with the United States. Yet will he be in a
position to curry favor with Washington if the Biden administration believes he
is not being forthcoming on the Palestinian issue? U.S. officials hint that they
want to see some quid pro quo from him in other arenas, noting the political
windfall he could gain from a Saudi breakthrough. Ultimately, however, no degree
of intercession from Netanyahu can guarantee that the United States will be
forthcoming on Saudi demands, each of which holds complex policy implications.
Russia/Ukraine Complications
President Biden has made clear that he will judge allies by their actions to
assist Ukraine against Russian aggression, and Israel has faced significant
criticism in this regard from various corners. Thus far, Jerusalem has given
Kyiv humanitarian and nonlethal assistance as well as intelligence about Iranian
drones, but it is no secret that the Ukrainians want Israeli air defense
systems, particularly Iron Dome.
The Pentagon understands Israel’s desire to ensure that its proprietary
technology is not surveilled or captured in combat and reverse engineered.
Eastern European countries are reportedly asking to purchase SPYDER, a system
that is similar to Iron Dome but does not raise the same proprietary concerns;
in fact, it has already been exported to several countries. Some U.S. officials
have also supported Israel’s multi-billion-dollar deal to sell Germany the
jointly produced Arrow 3 missile defense system (the purchase is awaiting final
Pentagon approval). Providing NATO members with new Israeli air defense systems
could free up space for them to send their older non-Israeli systems to
Ukraine—an approach that is acceptable to Israel because it is less likely to
cause problems with Moscow.
Israel has other serious considerations with Russia that may complicate its
willingness to help on Ukraine. For one, Israeli officials say that Iran has
prepared a list of weapons and strategic requests it will seek from Moscow in
return for providing drones. Netanyahu will likely ask President Vladimir Putin—possibly
in person—not to give Tehran strategic weapons or assistance. Any public
outreach to Putin in wartime is bound to be sensitive in Washington, so U.S. and
Israeli officials should privately establish clear ground rules for such
high-level dialogue in advance. Some U.S. officials are already on edge about
the new government’s Ukraine posture—for instance, foreign minister Eli Cohen
recently stated that Israel will talk less about the war in public, upsetting
key congressional allies such as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who interpreted the
remark as Israel backing away from Ukraine.
Domestic Policy Shifts
Currently, domestic issues dominate Israeli political discourse, particularly
the proposed overhaul of the court system, which many believe will place the
country on an illiberal, even undemocratic trajectory. Large swaths of the
public are also concerned that Netanyahu’s junior coalition partners will
attempt to limit LGBT rights, end recognition of non-orthodox Jewish conversions
abroad, tighten the Law of Return’s criteria for Jews immigrating to Israel, and
extend major concessions to ultraorthodox Jews (e.g., continuing their draft
exemption; increasing subsidies to yeshiva students and schools).
U.S. officials have made clear that these issues are unlikely to attract
presidential attention, but other members of the administration may still
emphasize the continued importance of preserving Israel and America’s shared
values. Concerns about these issues could also appear in future U.S. government
human rights reports. Israelis tend to focus on what top-level U.S. officials
emphasize (or omit), but they would be mistaken to assume that the United States
is indifferent to their societal issues just because the White House may not
address them directly. Divisive domestic policies could have corrosive effects
on sentiment toward Israel in Congress and other parts of American society,
accentuating the need for Israeli leaders to prioritize domestic goals that best
fit their foreign policy priorities with Washington.
*David Makovsky is the Ziegler Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute,
director of its Koret Project on Arab-Israel Relations, and creator of the
podcast Decision Points.
A Survey of the 2023 Terrorism Threat Landscape
Christine Abizaid/The Washington Institute/January 10/2023
Part of a series: Counterterrorism Lecture Series
or see Part 1: U.S. Efforts against Terrorism Financing: A View from the Private
Sector
The head of America’s counterterrorism enterprise assesses which threats will
demand the most attention over the next year, from racially motivated extremists
in the homeland to ISIS and al-Qaeda offshoots in Africa.
On January 10, The Washington Institute hosted a virtual Policy Forum with
Christine Abizaid, director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC). The
following is her statement for the record.
Happy New Year, and thank you for the invitation to speak to this distinguished
group today about counterterrorism and the current threat landscape. Despite
significant progress in diminishing the terrorist threat to the United States,
the country continues to face a diversified, transnational, and in many ways
unpredictable threat environment both at home and abroad. An array of actors,
whether foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs), state sponsors of terrorism, or
lone actors, are shaping the nature of today’s terrorism landscape. This
persistent threat environment exists amid an ongoing transition for the CT
community where CT, while still critical, is one of many competing priorities
the U.S. national security community must be postured to address.
Internationally, Russia’s invasion of and war in Ukraine, China’s growing
economic and security assertiveness, Iran’s destabilizing activities in the
Middle East and beyond, North Korea’s confrontational behavior, and the growing
capabilities of a number of cyberactors, for example, are among the most
consequential challenges to U.S. national security. At the same time, violent
extremism continues to fuel threats against the West in a growing swath of
territory from the African Sahel to Southeast Asia, and contributes to worsening
humanitarian conditions in regions like Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen.
Notably, this diffusion of the threat, while challenging, has resulted in a less
concentrated and effective terrorist capability directed inside the homeland.
Terrorist organizations such as ISIS and al-Qaeda and the violent extremists
they inspire take advantage of developing nations, political instability, and
undergoverned territory to entrench themselves in difficult operating
environments and ingratiate themselves with local populations. These movements
remain committed to attacking U.S. persons and facilities worldwide even as they
balance those goals against local gains. These groups represent the most urgent
threat to U.S. interests overseas.
In the homeland, we remain concerned about al-Qaeda and ISIS but assess that the
threat they pose here is less acute than at any other time since 9/11, a
judgment consistent with what we expressed last year. In fact, the most likely
threat in the United States is from lone actors, including those inspired by
foreign terrorist organizations and foreign racially and ethnically motivated
violent extremists (REMVEs).
Against the backdrop of this threat landscape, whether overseas or at home, NCTC
remains focused on uncovering and disrupting transnational networks from which
threats to Americans and America are likely to emerge. Even as we monitor the
threat, we also must evaluate the state of the CT community’s ability to address
it. This role is even more critical as resources shift away from CT, and we need
to account for the sustained ability to meet the threat, however it evolves.
The Main Threat Inside the United States
Unlike twenty-one years ago, the American public today is more likely to
experience a terrorist attack by an individual attacker than a highly structured
terrorist organization. Today’s lone-actor threats can mobilize in unpredictable
ways based on a variety of motivations.
These individuals almost certainly mobilize to violence independently without
direction from specific groups. Since 9/11, there have been thirty-seven attacks
in the homeland inspired by al-Qaeda or ISIS, compared to eight that involved a
direct connection to these groups. Similarly, during the last twelve years, all
of the seventeen REMVE attacks by actors espousing the superiority of the white
race were by individuals who radicalized at least in part online and who
mobilized to violence as lone actors, many of whom were inspired by foreign
REMVE attackers and their manifestos.
FTOs Inspiring Lone Actors
We remain concerned and vigilant regarding the threat from lone actors and small
groups inspired by FTOs. Since 2001, the threat emanating from these individuals
has evolved from one defined by complex, large-scale attacks directed by an FTO
to mostly simple, self-initiated attacks inspired by an FTO. Messaging directed
at these individuals to conduct attacks has decreased, although they continue to
draw inspiration from historical publications such as Inspire magazine
(published by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP) and ISIS messaging.
Domestic Violent Extremists
NCTC supports the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security in analyzing the
threat in the homeland posed by violent extremists with international and
transnational terrorism connections. The REMVE threat in particular has
significant links to transnational actors whose plots and professed ideology
encourage mobilization to violence by those vulnerable to their messaging. The
transnational REMVE threat is largely fluid, fragmented, and lacking in
hierarchical structures, with proponents framing actions around the concept of
leaderless resistance.
The links between U.S.-based REMVEs and their foreign counterparts mostly
involve the bidirectional sharing of violent extremist messaging, mutual
grievances, manifestos of successful attackers, and encouragement for lone-actor
violence, such as by the Buffalo shooter. As with other terrorism challenges,
REMVEs anywhere can operate transnationally by exploiting a world connected by
social media and other online platforms. Even as technology companies improve
their capabilities to detect and respond to violent extremist content online,
REMVEs and their supporters find new methods to spread their message.
Disrupting Terrorist Travel and Securing the Border
NCTC also supports efforts to prevent terrorist infiltration of the homeland.
Identifying known or suspected terrorists or their affiliates who seek to
infiltrate U.S. borders by land, sea, or air is central to the U.S. government’s
CT strategy. NCTC collaborates regularly with its partners and, on their behalf,
state and local partners to build a common threat picture to enable operating
partners to protect the U.S. border. In particular, NCTC continues to support
the U.S. government’s screening and vetting enterprise and plays a critical role
in refugee and immigration processing by identifying any connections to
international terrorism, not only for the applicant, but also for appropriate
members of the applicant’s family.
The Terrorist Threat Overseas Continues to Evolve
Turning to the overseas environment, foreign terrorist movements worldwide
continue to inspire followers and enable attack plotting against the United
States, Americans, and other Western countries. ISIS and al-Qaeda, the two
leading foreign terrorist threats to U.S. interests, continue to aspire to
attack U.S. and other Western interests but have been more effective at pursuing
operations against regional and local adversaries. CT pressure by the United
States and foreign partners during the past fifteen years has been critical in
degrading the capability of these groups, particularly in disrupting experienced
leaders and operatives and exacting sustained pressure against key networks.
The ISIS Global Enterprise
In Iraq and Syria, ISIS remains an intact, centrally led organization that will
most likely continue to pose a global threat to U.S. and other Western interests
as well as local populations. Despite losing more than a dozen senior leaders
during the past three years, it continues to wage a low-level insurgency in Iraq
and Syria since its territorial defeat in 2018 and commands a cohesive global
network that has allowed the group to sustain its influence—and in some areas
such as Africa, expand its recruitment and operations. We assess that in
February of last year, after a raid that killed its overall “emir,” ISIS
transitioned seamlessly to a new emir. ISIS members readily accepted the new
leader, and we see no signs of fissures or splintering by the branches and
networks despite limitations the group faces in Iraq and Syria.
Even under new leadership, ISIS remains committed to its long-term goal of
establishing an Islamic caliphate and continues to exploit undergoverned areas
in Iraq and Syria, where it currently operates as a clandestine insurgency. This
year, ISIS prioritized and attacked a detention facility in northeast Syria that
housed key ISIS leaders and experienced fighters. While we assess most of the
high-value detainees were either recaptured or killed as local forces responded
to the attack, the operation itself signifies the organization’s ability to
stage high-profile attacks and prioritize efforts to replenish its dwindling
ranks. We have witnessed subsequent calls and efforts, including by ISIS
branches as far away as West Africa, to free imprisoned members. The group’s
capabilities and trajectory will remain dependent upon the level of
counterterrorism pressure it faces, particularly by CT actors who continue to
routinely disrupt ISIS facilitation networks and operations.
One of the primary mechanisms ISIS uses to threaten the West is its media
outlets. Even as its overall media capabilities have declined compared to its
early years, the most prolific ISIS threat to the United States or other Western
countries is through inspired attackers who are vulnerable to influence by ISIS
messaging. The group’s ability to inspire violence was most recently
demonstrated by an ISIS supporter who carried out an attack in Oslo in June of
last year, which killed two and injured twenty-one. Pro-ISIS supporter groups
have also helped augment the organization’s media presence by creating,
archiving, translating, and disseminating multilingual propaganda online. One
such group supporting ISIS-Khorasan published English-language media focused on
delegitimizing the United States and denigrating the Taliban.
While we have seen a decline in the number of ISIS-inspired attacks in the West
since peaking in 2017, such operations remain a priority for the organization.
The group also still aspires to deploy operatives to the West, and we continue
to monitor for threats against high-visibility, attractive regional targets that
would have similarly high impact and provide propaganda value and publicity,
such as the recent World Cup in Qatar.
More broadly, ISIS has continued to grow its global enterprise, which now
includes approximately twenty branches and networks, through which ISIS leaders
project strength and dispel the narrative of its defeat. In March of last year,
ISIS recognized its newest branch, ISIS in the Sahel. In July, the branch
claimed responsibility for an attack on Nigeria’s Kuje prison—located just
twenty-seven miles away from the U.S. embassy—in which almost 1,000 prisoners
were released, including some terrorists.
ISIS has also used its branches and networks to choreograph global attack
campaigns since 2019, the most recent of which was in April of last year to
avenge the death of the group’s overall emir. ISIS elements in Iraq and Syria
led in the number of attack claims and were boosted by ISIS-West Africa and
ISIS-Khorasan, the branches we consider to be among the group’s most capable.
Last year, ISIS-Khorasan expanded its ambitions outside Afghanistan with a
handful of cross-border rocket attacks against Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and a
foiled plot in India. Its ambitions for attacking the West—possibly including
the homeland—remains a top intelligence priority, notwithstanding the withdrawal
of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in August 2021.
ISIS is also exploiting uneven local CT pressure in Central, East, and Southern
Africa to expand its presence, increase connectivity, and develop new
capabilities beyond its traditional strongholds in North and West Africa. The
group’s expansion in Mozambique increasingly threatens Western-led energy
projects there, while signs of ISIS influence in the Democratic Republic of
Congo, South Africa, and elsewhere in the region demonstrate its growing appeal
across the continent.
Al-Qaeda Post-Zawahiri
The death of al-Qaeda’s longtime leader Ayman al-Zawahiri last July in Kabul
dealt an important strategic and symbolic blow to the al-Qaeda network, which he
led from relative isolation for more than a decade. Zawahiri was a respected
ideological leader among the al-Qaeda global network who strove to enhance
interconnectivity across the organization’s dispersed regional affiliates.
Now months past the operation that killed him, the group has yet to publicly
announce a successor. Among the remaining al-Qaeda veterans are several
Iran-based senior leaders, most notably Saif al-Adel and Abd al-Rahman al-Maghrebi,
who probably continue to provide ideological and strategic guidance to the
global network. Other al-Qaeda leaders featured in globally and regionally
focused media are in charge of the regional affiliates and likely consult across
a distributed leadership team about the network’s direction.
Al-Qaeda’s Iran-based senior leaders oversee the global network, which includes
regional affiliates in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia as well as
various local networks that support the affiliates. Starting in West Africa,
al-Qaeda’s Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is increasingly
threatening capital cities in the Sahel while combating local militaries,
operatives from ISIS in the Sahel, and Russian paramilitary forces in Mali. In
July of last year, the group attacked Mali’s largest military camp located just
outside Bamako, underscoring its capabilities and growing boldness in the
region. JNIM probably hopes to exploit the departure of French forces from Mali
earlier this year to accelerate its growth and entrenchment, including into
littoral West African states such as Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, and Togo. CT concerns
in the region have further led to instability fueling nondemocratic transitions
of power, most recently in Burkina Faso.
In the Horn of Africa, we remain concerned about the continued threat that al-Shabaab
poses to U.S. citizens and Western interests. Al-Shabaab is the wealthiest and
most lethal of all al-Qaeda affiliates, controls large portions of southern
Somalia, and has demonstrated the capability to carry out successful operations
across the region, including against U.S. service members.
In North Africa, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has experienced setbacks
from CT pressure since early 2018, but probably provides guidance to other
al-Qaeda elements in the region, particularly JNIM. Since 2020, Algerian Yazid
Mebrak has been serving as AQIM’s leader and playing a key role in al-Qaeda’s
management of global operations, including the abduction and killing of
Americans.
Turning to the Middle East and Yemen, AQAP is intent on conducting operations in
the West and against U.S. and allied regional interests. It has proven itself to
be among the al-Qaeda network’s most creative branches but has faced significant
CT pressure in recent years, creating hurdles for the group’s external
operations planning. In June 2021, AQAP published its sixth issue of Inspire
Guide, which provides operational guidance for would-be attackers in the
homeland and suggests the group still maintains a viable media capability,
despite the death of its key propagandist that year.
In Syria, al-Qaeda elements under the banner of Huras al-Din have struggled to
stabilize their footing and experienced numerous leadership losses and pressure
from rival group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. However, these elements could use their
traditional safe haven in opposition-controlled territory to target U.S. and
other Western interests in the region.
Finally, in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda’s South Asia affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Indian
Subcontinent (AQIS), is the weakest group in the organization’s global network.
Al-Qaeda remains intent on striking U.S. interests and inspiring its followers
to do so but currently lacks a capability to direct attacks against the United
States from Afghanistan. Separate from AQIS, there are probably fewer than a
dozen al-Qaeda legacy members with historical ties to the group located in
Afghanistan, and some may have been there prior to the fall of Kabul; we have no
indication that these legacy members remaining in Afghanistan are involved in
external attack plotting.
Iranian Threat to the United States
Transitioning to threats emanating from Iran and its partners and proxies, Iran
continues to encourage and support plots against the United States at home and
abroad, especially in the Middle East. Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah have remained
intent on retaliating for the death of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods
Force (IRGC-QF) commander Qasem Soleimani, with Iran plotting attacks against
former U.S. officials. Iran is pursuing a diverse campaign that employs legal,
financial, and lethal action in pursuit of its revenge. Tehran has publicly
threatened to conduct lethal operations including against former president
Donald Trump and former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, and has recently
increased its threats of lethal action in the homeland. This past August, an
Iran-based IRGC member was charged with attempting to arrange the murder of
former national security advisor John Bolton in the United States.
Iran also pursues a campaign against anti-Iranian regime dissidents around the
world, including in the United States. In July 2021, U.S. law enforcement
charged an Iranian intelligence official and four others with attempting to
kidnap an Iranian American journalist in New York and forcibly returning her to
Iran. And last July, a man with a loaded assault weapon was arrested after
behaving suspiciously outside the same journalist’s home. Iran has also
demonstrated its willingness to engage in terrorism in the Middle East, as
evidenced last June when Turkish authorities arrested members of an Iranian cell
planning to kidnap and assassinate Israeli citizens in Istanbul. The plot was
intended as retaliation for an alleged Israeli operation in Tehran. Separately,
Iran-backed militants in Iraq and Syria target U.S. forces with unmanned
aircraft systems and indirect fire attacks as they try to compel their
withdrawal from the region.
Evolving the CT Enterprise
The complexity of the threat just outlined continues to demand a collaborative,
agile, and appropriately resourced CT effort to mitigate terrorist threats to
the United States. In the twenty-one years since 9/11, the U.S. government has
developed just that: a highly integrated, innovative, and successful CT
enterprise that continues to adapt to the nature of the threat. CT practitioners
work behind the scenes every day to ensure that interconnected CT operations and
programs are effectively used and employ a wide range of tools, including
identity intelligence, diplomatic security, sanctions, law enforcement
investigations, high-value target operations, and partner capacity-building
efforts.
Even as other priorities demand attention from the U.S. national security
community, CT remains foundational to our national security. The CT enterprise
must preserve CT fundamentals—such as collection, warning, analysis, disruption,
information sharing, and key partnerships—that ultimately give the national
security community the time and space to focus on non-CT priorities. NCTC and
its CT partners throughout the U.S. government are working toward a sustainable
and enduring level of support to this mission that maintains our strategic
success and creates space for investments in other national security priorities.
Looking Ahead
Maintaining an efficient and effective CT architecture is an ongoing mission,
and our progress during the past twenty-one years has been a whole-of-government
effort. As we look to posture for evolving threats and national security
priorities, we must ensure that we capitalize on the CT infrastructure and
relationships built since 9/11 in support of other national security efforts. An
interconnected threat environment fueled by great power competition, regional
conflicts, and humanitarian emergencies has the potential to escalate threats
quickly. We must ensure that our CT enterprise, including our international and
U.S.-based partners, retains the ability to stop threats and stay abreast of a
continually evolving threat picture.
Let me end by thanking the incredible community of intelligence, diplomatic,
military, and law enforcement professionals whose dedication to the CT mission
has done so much to protect this country and its citizens from a persistent and
amorphous adversary. It is a privilege to be part of today’s CT enterprise and
to work on behalf of the American people, and I look forward to a challenging,
but rewarding, year ahead.
The Policy Forum series is made possible through the generosity of the Florence
and Robert Kaufman Family.