English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 08/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2023/english.january08.23.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
‘On whomever you will see the Spirit descending and remaining on him is he who
baptizes in the Holy Spirit.’ I have seen and have testified that this is the
Son of God.”
John 01/29-34/29 The next day, he saw Jesus coming
to him, and said, “Behold,† the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the
world! This is he of whom I said, ‘After me comes a man who is preferred before
me, for he was before me.’ I didn’t know him, but for this reason I came
baptizing in water, that he would be revealed to Israel.” John testified,
saying, “I have seen the Spirit descending like a dove out of heaven, and it
remained on him. I didn’t recognize him, but he who sent me to baptize in water
said to me, ‘On whomever you will see the Spirit descending and remaining on him
is he who baptizes in the Holy Spirit.’ I have seen and have testified that
this is the Son of God.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 07-08/2023
Unfolding of new facts related to the Antonine Order scandal of selling
apartments and shops to Hezbollah/Elias Bejjani/06 January/2023
Lebanon, Europeans agree mechanism for questioning banking officials
Stakes are high as EU investigators plan Beirut trip over Salameh case
US embassy says Shea still serving as ambassador to Lebanon
Al-Rahi bound for London
Taymour Jumblatt: Mitigating the total power outage is still better than the
existing "political warming"
Qassem: Iran advances & shines
Former President Aoun meets with Iranian Ambassador
Frem discusses with Geagea presidential elections dossier, presents road map
open to securing Parliamentary majority during upcoming weeks.
Health Ministry: No new Cholera infections or deaths
George Fares announces from Bkirki his candidacy for presidency
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 07-08/2023
Iran executes 2 more men detained amid nationwide protests
Netherlands summons Iranian ambassador again over executions
Khamenei Appoints New Police Chief amid Protests
EU 'Appalled' by New Protester Executions in Iran
Iranian Delegation Pressures Baghdad to Recognize Soleimani as State Guest
New Armored Vehicles Will Help Ukraine Take the Fight to Russia
Putin Crony Thinks Military Brass Are Out to Get Him
Israel Defends Ben-Gvir, Int’l Community Cautions against Provocations at Al-Aqsa
Normalisation faces darker outlook as Israel shifts hard-right
Biden faces Israel quandary with new Netanyahu government
After bitter Republican dispute, McCarthy named US House speaker
Israel police arrest 2 teens in attack on Christian cemetery
Thousands of Israelis protest new government's policies
Houthis' Commemoration of Soleimani's Death Sparks Anger among Yemenis
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 07-08/2023
The Middle East enters the year 2023: Where and what to watch/Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem
Post/January 07/2023
Reflection on the Career of First UN Sec-Gen Post-Cold War/Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy/Asharq
Al Awsat/January 07/2023
Musk is Repeating Trump’s Mistakes/Mamdouh al-Muhainy/Asharq Al Awsat/January
07/2023
Turkey supports Ukraine without alienating Russia
Michael Weiss and James Rushton/Yahoo News/January 07/ 2023
Iran Deepens Its Presence Inside Latin America/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone
Institute/January 07/ 2023
Will 2023 be the year of change in Iran?/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab
Weekly/January 07/2023
on January 07-08/2023
Unfolding
of new facts related to the Antonine Order scandal of selling apartments and
shops to Hezbollah
Elias Bejjani/06 January/2023
الياس بجاني: جديد جريمة وفضيحة بيع الرهبنة الأنطونية شقق ومحلات تجارية لحزب الله
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/114751/elias-bejjani-unfolding-of-new-facts-related-to-the-antonine-order-scandal-of-selling-apartments-and-shops-to-hezbollah-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%a8%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%ac%d8%af/
Despite the scandal, and sin of the Antonine Order, in selling numerous
residential apartments and commercial shops in the Hadath area, which are
endowment properties (waqf property), the Maronite Patriarchate, at least in
public did not comment, or take any action to stop what happened, nor did it
issue any statement in this regard, which is contrary to the laws of the Church
that prohibit selling endowment properties. The same approach of silence and
indifference applies to the Antonine Order, which committed the sin of selling
church endowment properties. It did not comment either positively or negatively,
or admit or deny, which simply means a dictatorship-authoritarian mentality,
bold deviation from faith, and indifference of all those monks in charge of
order, to Christian public opinion and church laws. Their selling act is a
blatant preachment of all church principle and laws. The Church prohibits the
sale of waqf properties.
We wonder if these monks are in reality temple merchants, clerics, and
Pharisees?
By this impeachment, are they still honoring their vows of chastity, obedience,
and poverty?
Are they above church accountability?
In conclusion, what is dangerous, disturbing, and even frightening, in regards
to this scandal is that, neither Bkerki, nor the Order explained to the public
what has happened and what is the truth.
This indifference stance of both church bodies, shows with no shed of doubt.
that they do not respect either the canons of the Church, faith, or the
intelligence of the believers.
Such derailed practices proves a mere alienation from all foundations of faith,
trust and accountability.
Lebanon, Europeans agree mechanism for
questioning banking officials
NaharnetJanuary 07/2023
Contacts between State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat and judicial authorities in
France, Germany and Luxembourg have led to an agreement on a mechanism through
which judicial delegations from the three countries will question banking
officials in Beirut in a money laundering case related to Central Bank Governor
Riad Salameh, media reports said. The Oueidat-European talks have led to
“introducing significant modifications to the mission of the European
delegation,” Asharq al-Awsat newspaper reported on Saturday. The European teams
are seeking to interrogate Salameh, Central Bank officials and the owners of
major Lebanese banks, the daily said. The investigation is aimed at determining
the sources of Salameh’s assets in European banks and monetary transactions that
occurred from Lebanon over the past years. A senior Lebanese judicial official
told Asharq al-Awsat that “all the discrepancies between the Lebanese and
European sides have been totally resolved and an agreement has been reached on
unifying the measures and the investigations mechanism.”“The two sides agreed
that the interrogation sessions will be held at the main hall of the Court of
Cassation at the Justice Palace in Beirut, in the presence of judges from the
Lebanese public prosecution who will personally undertake the mission of
interrogation and reciting the questions that the European judges will carry, in
the presence of these (European) judges,” the official added. Revealing that the
first round of interrogations will kick off on Monday, the official said that 16
individuals, who do not include Salameh, will be questioned over a period of
five days. “It will involve senior Central Bank officials and the directors of
Lebanese banks,” the official added. Oueidat had on Friday met at his office
with delegations from the French and German embassies to discuss the
preparations and the delegations also inspected the hall of the Court of
Cassation in which the interrogations will take place. Speaking to Asharq al-Awsat,
judicial sources expressed their relief over the developments, stressing that
“there will be cooperation with any foreign investigation into the financial
files.”
Stakes are high as EU investigators plan
Beirut trip over Salameh case
Nada Maucourant Atallah/The national/January 07/2023
Public prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat says the European delegation's trip does not
'prejudice Lebanon’s sovereignty'.
A European delegation of investigators is scheduled to visit Lebanon this month
as part of a corruption investigation into embattled central bank governor Riad
Salameh. It will be the first time a joint visit has taken place Lebanon, a
significant step forward in a cross-country investigation and setting high
expectations in terms of co-operation between the Lebanese and foreign
judiciaries.At least six European countries are investigating Riad Salameh and
his entourage for the alleged embezzlement of more than $330 million from the
central Banque du Liban (BDL) through a contract awarded to his brother Raja’s
company, Forry Associates (Forry). BDL directed Forry to sell its financial
products (certificates of deposit, Eurobonds and treasury bills) under a
brokerage contract signed in 2002 by Riad Salameh. But inspectors suspect that
Forry, which is registered in the Virgin Islands, is a shell company created
only to channel embezzled funds, essentially to Europe, where the governor and
his entourage own real estate worth millions.
Both brothers deny any wrongdoing.
European courts have set up an international investigative team to exchange
information because the case involves a multilayered set-up of companies and
transactions across several countries. The European delegation, which includes
judicial officials and investigators from Luxembourg, France and Germany, is
part of this joint effort. According to two informed sources, the delegation is
looking to hear from about 20 people related to the Salameh case and gain access
to pertinent documents. In March, the joint investigation led authorities from
France, Germany and Luxembourg to freeze €120 million worth of assets belonging
to Mr Salameh and his entourage in several countries. Representatives for
France’s National Financial Prosecutor’s Office and for the Public Prosecutor in
Munich said they did not wish to comment on the matter due to continuing
investigations. The spokesman for the Luxembourg judicial authority did not
respond to requests for comment.
No prejudice to Lebanon’s sovereignty
The trip triggered concern over a potential breach of Lebanon’s sovereignty. The
Lebanese daily Al Akhbar echoed this position in an article last week saying
“Europeans entered a new phase of exercising direct tutelage over the Lebanese
constitutional institutions".
But it appears that the Lebanese judiciary will keep full authority over the
whole process. “There is no prejudice to Lebanon’s sovereignty," Lebanon's top
prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat told The National. The “the rights of these
countries”, he said, falls within the United Nations Convention against
Corruption ratified by Lebanon in 2009, which regulates international
co-operation in criminal matters. According to Article 46 of the convention,
“mutual legal assistance shall be afforded to the fullest extent possible under
relevant laws, treaties, agreements and arrangements of the requested state”,
and can include “taking evidence or statements from persons”. It means that the
requested state can refuse legal assistance if it considers the request to be
against its law. Mr Oueidat ended up agreeing to the European request, on two
conditions. Because Lebanese law does not allow “any external authority to
exercise investigative powers”, people will be heard “upon their approval” and
“in the presence of the assigned Lebanese judge”, he wrote on September 29 to
the head of the Munich prosecutor's office in a letter seen by The National.
A test for the Lebanese judiciary?
In this context, the European delegation's access to witnesses and documents
relies largely on the co-operation from the Lebanese judiciary. “The European
investigators have no enforcement power,” a diplomatic source confirmed. The
source said these trips are “highly regulated”, and that hearings will be
carried out through a Lebanese judge, who will receive the questions from the
foreign side. “But Lebanon's approval of the trip is a very positive sign,” the
source said, while acknowledging “uncertain outcomes”.Two main elements raise
concerns about the trip's success.
First, the Lebanese co-operation with foreign judiciary on the Salameh fraud
investigation to date has been piecemeal. “It seems difficult, even impossible
to obtain the account information of Riad Salameh and Raja Salameh from Lebanese
banks, although it has been asked through a legal mutual request to Lebanon,,
said French investigative judge Aude Buresi in an attachment order seen by The
National, mentioning “a context where banking secrecy can only be lifted by the
central bank's special investigation commission”. These accounts are important
because it is alleged that most of Forry’s commissions were transferred to Raja
Salameh’s personal bank accounts in Lebanon. His banking data might reveal the
identity of alleged accomplices who benefited from these transfers. In a move to
increase pressure around information sharing, Judge Buresi met Mr Oueidat and
other Lebanese prosecutors at a Beirut courthouse in May. After her visit, the
central bank's special investigation commission handed over the account
information on Raja Salameh from his Lebanese account to Mr Oueidat. The
Lebanese judiciary did not send the banking data to the French judges, according
to a source familiar with the matter. Another pitfall could be the imbroglio
surrounding the stalled local investigation into allegations of embezzlement at
the central bank involving $300 million opened in 2021.
After the conclusion of an 18-month preliminary investigation in Lebanon, Mr
Oueidat referred Riad Salameh's case to the Beirut public prosecutor Ziad Abou
Haidar, who refused to implement Mr Oueidat’s order to prosecute the central
bank governor and his entourage, effectively stopping the case. Access to the
file could be made complex for European investigators amid confusion surrounding
the judge presiding over the case. But Lebanon's room for manoeuvre is slim. “It
is a test for the Lebanese judiciary”, said Karim Daher, a Facti panellist and
international lawyer. “But Lebanon will have to co-operate to some extent. There
could be political, judicial and financial consequences that the country cannot
afford, such as sanctions, the end of the international aid, or, in case the
Europeans consider the situation a violation of [EU] norms and rules against
money laundering, a ban from their banking system,” he added.
US embassy says Shea still serving as ambassador to Lebanon
Naharnet/January 07/2023
The U.S. Embassy in Beirut on Friday announced that U.S. Ambassador Dorothy Shea
is still serving as her country's ambassador to Lebanon, following media reports
related to her nomination by the White House for the post of U.S. Deputy
Representative to the U.N. "Embassy Beirut is proud of (U.S.) President (Joe)
Biden’s nomination of Ambassador Shea to serve as the U.S. Deputy Representative
to the United Nations," U.S. Embassy Beirut Spokesperson Julia Groeblacher said
in a statement. "But, this is only the first step of a multi-step process for a
position that requires the advice and consent of the U.S. Senate. In the
meantime, Ambassador Shea is still here in Beirut serving as the United States
Ambassador to Lebanon," Groeblacher said. She added that the Ambassador looks
forward to "continuing her role in our partnership with the Lebanese people, as
we work to help rescue the Lebanese economy and promote solutions to overcome
political paralysis, so the people can once again have an elected president and
empowered government, ideally committed to reforms, transparency, and good
governance." "As the Ambassador always says, we are in this together," the
Spokesperson went on to say. The White House had on Tuesday nominated Shea for
the posts of U.S. Deputy Representative to the U.N. and U.S. Representative to
the Sessions of the U.N. General Assembly, sending the nominations to the U.S.
Senate for approval. According to Lebanon’s MTV, a successor to Shea as U.S.
ambassador to Lebanon is yet to be appointed. “She will stay in Beirut for a
maximum period of three months,” the TV network said on Wednesday.
Al-Rahi bound for London
NNA/January 07/2023
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, left this afternoon to
London on a pastoral visit that was scheduled for the year 2019, but was
postponed due to the Corona pandemic. Accompanying the Patriarch on his visit
that will last till upcoming Saturday is Bishop Boulos Sayyah and Patriarchal
Protocol Director, Attorney Walid Ghayyad. They will be received upon arrival at
the airport by Lebanese Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Rami Mortada, his
advisor Marwan Francis, Servant of the Monastery of Our Lady of Lebanon in
London, Father Fadi Kmaid, and several members of the Maronite Church. During
his visit, al-Rahi will meet the Maronite community and parishioners residing in
the British capital, and will have official encounters with the British Prime
Minister, the Foreign Minister and a number of British deputies. The Patriarch
will also deliver a speech at the British Parliament, and will meet the heads of
the Catholic Churches in London.
Taymour Jumblatt: Mitigating the total power outage is
still better than the existing "political warming"
NNA/January 07/2023
Head of the "Democratic Gathering", MP Taymour Jumblatt, denounced the ongoing
fuel crisis and the political abuse that increases harm to citizens' rights and
deepens the collapse of institutions, criticizing "the persistence in not
resolving the problem of unloading the fuel from the ships moored off the
shores, even if it does not solve the escalating crisis and basically is not
expected to do so, yet mitigating the total power outage remains better than the
existing political warming."His words came during his meeting with popular
delegations at Al-Mukhtara Palace earlier today, with talks centering on the
damage resulting from the total power outage and the almost complete water
cut-off especially in the districts of the Mountain and Rashaya, and the
remaining Lebanese regions.
Qassem: Iran advances & shines
NNA/January 07/2023
Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, said today on Twitter:
"I returned from Iran reassured of its stable situation after the recent riots.
America and those with it built great hopes with their media, political and
terrorist aggression against Iran, and they failed. Life is normal and active.
Iran advances and shines."
Former President Aoun meets with Iranian Ambassador
NNA/January 07/2023
Former President Michel Aoun received today Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon,
Mojtaba Amani, accompanied by Chargé d'Affairs Hassan Khalili, on a visit to
congratulate him on the holidays, during which they discussed the general
situation in Lebanon and the region. After the meeting, the Iranian ambassador
said that his country "always desires a rapprochement of views between all
parties and sects in Lebanon," adding that his words with President Aoun were in
this context. He also called on the Lebanese parties to "converge views to elect
a president of the republic as soon as possible, which will impact the economic
recovery and help to get over the imposed deadlines."
Frem discusses with Geagea presidential
elections dossier, presents road map open to securing Parliamentary majority
during upcoming weeks.
NNA/January 07/2023
Lebanese Forces Party Chief Samir Geagea met in Maarab today with MP Neemat Frem
in the presence of "Strong Republic" bloc member, MP Melhem Riachi. Following
the one-hour meeting, Frem indicated that the cordial visit was a chance to
touch on prevailing issues at the moment, most importantly the presidential
elections, "in light of the changes witnessed in the region that urge us to
expedite the election of a new president for the republic and reach an
integrated package through which we can cross into a new era in Lebanon." Frem
also discussed with Geagea "the need to search for common grounds that bring
together all the Lebanese from all walks of life, that would be sufficient to
accomplish this presidential entitlement," stressing that "improving the
citizen's standard of living and securing social protection is one of the
overarching priorities."
Frem further emphasized that "the responsibility rests on our shoulders to find
common meeting grounds," hoping "to begin with the outset of this new year the
stage of searching for such common space."
He added, "In the coming weeks, this space will appear, with the hope that we
will all, without exception, elect a new president with an integrated package,
whose first and foremost goal would be to preserve the Lebanese people and their
future, and to rebuild the state of institutions that constitute the joint and
successful project among all the components of this country." Responding to a
question whether he had a new proposal related to the presidential dossier, Frem
said: "It cannot be considered a proposal, but it is a working method and a road
map that can lead us in the coming weeks to a comprehensive offer that can
secure a majority in Parliament."
Health Ministry: No new Cholera infections or deaths
NNA/January 07/2023
The Ministry of Public Health announced in a report published this evening on
cholera cases in Lebanon, that "no new infection has been recorded, thus the
cumulative number of confirmed cases has settled at 671," adding that "no deaths
have been recorded, maintaining the cumulative number to-date at 23."
George Fares announces from Bkirki his candidacy for
presidency
NNA/January 07/2023
Lebanese-American international advisor, George Fares, visited Saturday Maronite
Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, in Bkirki, presenting his vision
for ways to solve the crisis in Lebanon.
Fares announced during the visit his decision to run for the presidential
elections in Lebanon.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 07-08/2023
Iran executes 2 more men detained amid nationwide
protests
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/Sat, January 07/2023
Iran said it executed two men Saturday convicted of allegedly killing a
paramilitary volunteer during a demonstration, the latest executions aimed at
halting the nationwide protests now challenging the country's theocracy. Iran’s
judiciary identified those executed as Mohammad Mehdi Karami and Mohammad
Hosseini, making it four men known to have been executed since the
demonstrations began in September over the death of Mahsa Amini. All have faced
internationally criticized, rapid, closed-door trials. The judiciary's Mizan
news agency said the men had been convicted of killing Ruhollah Ajamian, a
member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's volunteer Basij force, in the city
of Karaj outside of Tehran on Nov. 3. The Basij have deployed in major cities,
attacking and detaining protesters, who in many cases have fought back. Heavily
edited footage aired on state television showed Karami speaking before a
Revolutionary Court about the attack, which also showed a reenactment of the
attack, according to prosecutors' claims. Iran's Revolutionary Courts handed
down the two other death sentences already carried out. The tribunals don’t
allow those on trial to pick their own lawyers or even see the evidence against
them. Amnesty International has said the trials “bore no resemblance to a
meaningful judicial proceeding.” State TV also aired footage of Karami and
Hosseini talking about the attack, though the broadcaster for years has aired
what activists describe as coerced confessions. The men were convicted of the
killing, as well as “corruption on Earth,” a Quranic term and charge that has
been levied against others in the decades since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and
carries the death penalty. Activists say at least 16 people have been sentenced
to death in closed-door hearings over charges linked to the protests. Death
sentences in Iran are typically carried out by hanging. At least 517 protesters
have been killed and over 19,200 people have been arrested, according to Human
Rights Activists in Iran, a group that has closely monitored the unrest. Iranian
authorities have not provided an official count of those killed or detained. The
protests began in mid-September, when 22-year-old Amini died after being
arrested by Iran’s morality police for allegedly violating the Islamic
Republic’s strict dress code. Women have played a leading role in the protests,
with many publicly stripping off the compulsory Islamic headscarf, known as the
hijab. The protests mark one of the biggest challenges to Iran's theocracy since
the 1979 revolution. Security forces have used live ammunition, bird shot, tear
gas and batons to disperse protesters, according to rights groups. Also on
Saturday, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appointed a new hard-line
chief of police, the official IRNA news agency reported. Gen. Ahmad Reza Radan
replaced outgoing Gen. Hossein Ashtari after Ashtari’s eight-year term of
service ended. Radan, who served as acting commander of police from 2008-2014,
is known for his harsh handling of protesters during post-election turmoil in
2009. He also imposed measures against women wearing loose Islamic veils and
young men with long hair. The U.S. and Europe imposed sanctions on Radan for
human rights violations in 2009 and 2010. He has been in charge of a police
research center since 2014.
Netherlands summons Iranian ambassador
again over executions
AMSTERDAM (Reuters)/Sat, January 7, 2023
The Dutch government will summon the Iranian ambassador to the Netherlands for
the second time in a month to voice its deep concerns over the execution of
demonstrators, Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra said on Saturday. "Appalled by
the horrible executions of demonstrators in Iran. I will summon the Iranian
ambassador to underline our serious concerns and I call upon EU Member States to
do the same," Hoekstra said in a tweet. Iran on Saturday hanged two men for
allegedly killing a member of the security forces during nationwide protests
that followed the death of 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman Mahsa Amini on
Sept. 16. Hoekstra said these actions underlined the need for the European Union
to impose stronger sanctions on Iran than are currently being considered. The
Netherlands also summoned the Iranian ambassador in The Hague last month to
protest against the execution of demonstrators in the country.
Khamenei Appoints New Police Chief amid Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 January, 2023
Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei appointed on Saturday a new police chief,
nearly four months into protests triggered by Mahsa Amini's death. The Islamic
republic has been gripped by unrest since the September 16 death in custody of
Iranian Kurdish Amini, 22, following her arrest for allegedly violating the
country's strict dress code for women. Khamenei appointed General Ahmad-Reza
Radan to replace Hossein Ashtari, IRNA reported. Radan, born in 1963, was deputy
police chief from 2008 to 2014 and went on to lead the police's Center for
Strategic Studies. Earlier on Saturday, Iran executed two men for killing a
paramilitary force member during unprecedented protests sparked by the death in
custody of a young woman. The court of first instance had sentenced the two men
to death in early December, it said. The hangings come in defiance of a campaign
by international rights groups for the lives of the two men to be spared.
EU 'Appalled' by New Protester Executions in Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 January, 2023
The European Union said it was "appalled" after Iran on Saturday executed two
men for killing a paramilitary force member during protests sparked by a young
woman's death in custody. "The EU is appalled by the execution of Mohammad Mehdi
Karami and Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini arrested and sentenced to death in
connection with the ongoing protests in Iran," the spokesperson for EU foreign
affairs chief Josep Borrell said in a statement. "This is yet another sign of
the Iranian authorities’ violent repression of civilian demonstrations," he
said. "The European Union calls once again on the Iranian authorities to
immediately end the strongly condemnable practice of imposing and carrying out
death sentences against protesters,” AFP quoted him as saying. The statement
came after Iran executed two more men to double the number of executions to four
over the nationwide protests, which escalated since mid-September into calls for
an end to Iran's clerical regime. Two men were put to death in December,
sparking global outrage and new Western sanctions against Iran. Authorities have
arrested thousands of people in the wave of demonstrations that began with the
September death in custody of Mahsa Amini, 22. The Iranian Kurdish woman had
been arrested by morality police for allegedly breaching the regime's strict
dress code for women.
Iranian Delegation Pressures Baghdad to Recognize Soleimani as State Guest
Baghdad – Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 January, 2023
An Iranian delegation arrived in Baghdad last week to pressure the Iraqi
government to recognize that General Qassem Soleimani, who was assassinated in
2020, was an official guest of Iraq, Iraqi sources reported. According to the
sources, the delegation included diplomats and jurists from Tehran, all of whom
were commissioned by Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. They exerted
great pressure on the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani
to issue an official document recognizing that Soleimani was an official guest
of Iraq when he was assassinated at dawn on January 3, 2020, sources told Asharq
Al-Awsat. The Iraqi government asked its experts to study the request and figure
out a way to issue the document without angering Washington. Shiite parties
backing al-Sudani’s government fear that Soleimani’s case will affect Baghdad’s
relationship with the US, which they see as “necessary for the stability of the
prime minister’s position.”Former Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, two
days after Soleimani’s assassination, affirmed that he was slated to meet the
slain Iranian general. He said Soleimani was meant to deliver an Iranian
response to a letter from Saudi Arabia regarding truce negotiations in the
region. Sources close to the government offices claimed that al-Sudani wants to
please the US and Iran at the same time, and this pushes him to search for a
compromise regarding Soleimani’s file. Moreover, sources pointed to Iraqi
officials’ shock at “the Iranian rush regarding the recognition, especially its
political timing.” Pro-Iranian Shiite parties are not enthusiastic about
Tehran’s demand. Even the leader of the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq movement does not now
want a confrontation with Washington, sources affirmed. An Iraqi legal expert,
who requested anonymity, said that the request indicates Iranian intent to draft
a judicial file based on violating Iraq’s sovereignty in accordance with
international law. Tehran wants to accuse Washington of assassinating a figure
who was labeled an official guest. This will lead Iraq, according to the expert,
to be a binding party in bringing any lawsuit before the international courts
against the US.
New Armored Vehicles Will Help Ukraine Take the Fight to Russia
Steven Erlanger and Thomas Gibbons-Neff/The New York Times/Sat, January 7, 2023
BRUSSELS — They will soon be covered in mud, riddled with shrapnel damage and
under fire on Ukraine’s battlefields. But the three new types of armored
vehicles offered to Ukraine this week signal that the Western allies are gearing
up for another bloody year as the war enters a new phase of Ukrainian offensives
against dug-in Russian forces. Not surprisingly, the Ukrainian government is
ecstatic: “The time of weapons taboo has passed,” Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba
said in a Facebook post, welcoming the new lethal equipment. Russia is furious:
The new vehicles are “another step toward an escalation of the Ukrainian
conflict,” the embassy in Berlin decried in a statement. And frontline troops
are cynical, often complaining that while the allies are not letting them lose,
they aren’t letting them win, either. But the new weapons seem to mark a policy
change in Washington, Paris and Berlin, giving more lethal support to the
Ukrainian infantry, indicating less anxiety about Russian escalation and angling
for more decisive Ukrainian victories in 2023. The trilateral decision
“clarifies Western support for Ukraine for a potential offensive in the months
to come,” said Ulrich Speck, a German foreign policy analyst. “And it signals
Moscow that we’re not on the trajectory to peace negotiations soon.” The
decision also reflects “a temperature change” in major Western capitals and a
“reduction in the fear factor, a sense that a diminished Russia is less able or
willing to escalate,” Speck said. The French AMX-10s, German Marders and U.S. M2
Bradley Fighting Vehicles will enter the war on the heels of two successful
Ukrainian offensives that pushed Russian forces from the country’s northeast and
the south. The new vehicles, known as infantry, or armored, fighting vehicles,
are almost certainly intended to spearhead any future attempts to push the
Russians out of Ukraine. “The Ukrainians are planning to do more offensive
operations against dug-in Russian positions, so getting better infantry fighting
vehicles to get close to defensive positions is important,” said Rob Lee, a
military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
The new equipment will be arriving just in time. After more than 10 months of
bloody fighting, Ukraine’s Soviet-era vehicles that mirror the capabilities of
the AMX, M2 and Marder have been slowly destroyed and damaged, according to
Ukrainian troops and a U.S. official.
But if not sent in large numbers, the recent armored additions will likely
change little on the broader battlefield and add to Ukraine’s growing logistics
burden, as Ukrainian mechanics struggle with a diverse fleet of vehicles that
each have their own parts and ammo requirements.
The trio of vehicles are not the first armored vehicles sent by the West to
Ukraine, but they are arguably the most advanced, occupying a category of war
machines that are not quite armored personnel carriers, although some can carry
troops, and not quite tanks.
The AMX-10 has a 105 mm cannon. The M2 Bradley can be fitted with a 25 mm cannon
and an anti-tank guided missile. The Marder is typically fitted with a 20 mm
gun. The three different vehicles use different ammunition types, meaning more
of a logistics headache for the Ukrainian troops using them. The French one runs
on large tires; the others on treads. But both the Bradley and Marder can carry
troops, making them critical for any kind of future Ukrainian offensive
operations against Russia’s defenses along a front line that stretches more than
600 miles and has, in recent weeks, mostly stabilized after being reinforced by
newly mobilized troops. Ukraine has been pressing its Western allies regularly
for more sophisticated infantry equipment, including armored infantry fighting
vehicles and top-of-the-line Western tanks, like the American Abrams and the
German Leopard II.
But Washington, Paris and Berlin have been cautious, trying to provide the
weapons Ukraine actually needs and is capable of maintaining, while also keeping
a wary eye on the depth of their own sometimes meager stockpiles. U.S. officials
have argued that Ukraine has enough good tanks in its Soviet-era T-72s, although
it is running short of ammunition for them. The Americans and Germans argue that
to train Ukrainians to operate modern Leopard or Abrams tanks — and to maintain
them in the field — would take many months. The logistics chain needed for a
fuel-guzzling tank like the Abrams is also extensive, added a U.S. official, who
spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss tactical matters.
Currently, Ukrainian forces are using their Soviet-era tanks in more of a
support role, keeping them protected behind the lines and employing their large
main guns like artillery. They often rely on armored personnel carriers to move
troops quickly in offensive maneuvers. On Friday, the Biden administration
announced a new $3 billion package of military assistance for Ukraine that
includes Bradley Fighting Vehicles, which officials said would be especially
helpful to Ukrainian units fighting Russian forces in the Donbas region of the
country’s east. The administration said it would send 50 Bradleys. Germany has
said it will provide 40 Marders. The German coalition government led by a Social
Democratic chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has been especially careful to draw a line
between defensive weapons, like the Gepard mobile anti-aircraft vehicles, which
have tank treads, and weapons that can be used for offensive infantry fighting,
like the Marder and the Leopard. Berlin has maintained that it would not be the
first NATO ally to supply such weapons to Ukraine. President Emmanuel Macron of
France has held a similar stance, if more quietly. But on Wednesday, after
discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Macron suddenly
announced that France would supply its AMX-10 to Ukraine — an infantry fighting
vehicle with wheels, not tank treads, in service since the 1980s and being
phased out in the French military.
A NATO diplomat said Friday that France, Germany and the United States had been
discussing providing Ukraine with such vehicles, including the Bradley and the
Marder, but that Macron went ahead on his own and announced France’s decision.
On Thursday, after a conversation between President Joe Biden and Scholz, the
Germans said, the Americans and Germans consulted and announced their own
decision to supply Bradleys and Marders, satisfying the German condition that
Berlin not be the first to supply a new category of Western weaponry to Ukraine.
Germany also announced that it would supply a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine
in addition to the one that it was supplying to Poland — and which it had
initially refused to give directly to Ukraine. That taboo, too, has been broken.
“It’s another step forward for Germany, which has been going one step at a time
since Feb. 24,” said Ulrike Franke, a German defense expert with the European
Council on Foreign Relations. Ukraine has been asking for these weapons since
April, she said, but for Germany “it was a self-imposed taboo.” In Berlin, “we
keep having these slightly absurd debates — offensive versus defensive, light
versus heavy, modern versus old — and then a few months later we change our
lines again,” she said. It’s an important evolution, “mostly in the German
imagination,” she said. But it is also a bad look for the Franco-German
relationship, she said, looking either like Berlin needs a push from Paris or
that the two countries can’t work well together, with Macron preempting matters
on his own. © 2023 The New York Times Company
Putin Crony Thinks Military Brass Are Out to Get Him
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty/ The Daily Beast./Sat, January 7, 2023
Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Kremlin-connected businessman who
deployed his private army to help Vladimir Putin terrorize Ukraine, says “people
in uniform” connected to Russia’s military may be out to get him because his
mercenaries are outshining regular Russian troops on the battlefield.
In response to a question from local media Friday about social media posts that
appear aimed at “discrediting” him, Prigozhin, through his press service,
suggested that oligarchs may be targeting him as revenge for his criticism of
their “negative influence on the future of Russia.”Or, he said, “People in
uniform could be discrediting me. Chiefly those close to the military. Because
many of them can’t achieve the same effectiveness that Wagner has.”He also
floated the idea that Ukrainian intelligence or the CIA could be trash-talking
him to “slow down” Wagner on the frontline. But in the end he admitted that
since all the negative claims about him were “ordered” for placement on Russian
Telegram channels, “most likely neither the CIA nor the SBU has anything to do
with it.”“So I would like to apologize to them for the baseless criticism and
suspicion,” he said. As Prigozhin has seen his public profile soar after he
began recruiting thousands of Russian prison inmates to prop up Putin’s
fledgling war machine in Ukraine, rumors have circulated on Russian social media
channels that appear aimed at taking him down a notch—including humiliating sex
claims about a prison sentence in the 1980s. Independent Russian media outlets
have reported that Prigozhin has managed to make quite a few enemies among those
in Putin’s inner circle by making himself the public face of the war against
Ukraine and bashing top military officials. The Telegram channel General SVR, an
anonymous channel that claims to be run by a former member of the security
services, reported Friday that the innermost members of Putin’s circle are
disgusted with Prigozhin’s tone in his interactions with the Russian leader.
When the Wagner boss wished Putin a happy new year over the holidays, the
conversation was on speaker phone, allowing “several people” to overhear as
Prigozhin spoke to the president in an overly familiar manner, the channel
reported. “Putin did not shut Prigozhin down, but, embarrassed, just thanked him
in response and ended the conversation.”
Israel Defends Ben-Gvir, Int’l Community
Cautions against Provocations at Al-Aqsa
Washington - Ali Barada/Saturday, 7 January, 2023
Israel faced widespread criticism, including from the United States and Russia,
during an emergency session of the UN Security Council to discuss the visit of
the Israeli Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, to al-Aqsa Mosque in
Jerusalem. The international community warned that the new development could
lead to a new uprising against occupation in the Palestinian territories. The
session was held at the request of the UAE and China, followed by another bid
from France and Malta. The UN Assistant Secretary-General for Political and
Peacebuilding Affairs, Khaled Khayari, briefed the Council on Ben-Gvir's visit.
Khayari indicated that while the visit was not accompanied or followed by
violence, it is seen as "particularly inflammatory given Ben Gvir's past
advocacy for changes to the status quo."He noted that the visit drew widespread
condemnation from regional countries and the international community and was
seen as "a provocation that risked sparking further bloodshed." The official
stated that UN efforts to de-escalate the situation would continue and that all
parties must refrain from steps that could escalate tensions. "The situation at
Jerusalem's Holy Sites is deeply fragile, and any incident or tension there can
spill over and cause violence throughout the Occupied Palestinian Territory, in
Israel and elsewhere in the region," warned Khayari. He reiterated the
"Secretary-General's call for all parties to refrain from steps that could
escalate tensions in and around the Holy Sites, and for all to uphold the status
quo, in line with the special role of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan."
Al-Aqsa is a red line
The permanent Palestinian representative to the United Nations, Riyad Mansour,
confirmed that the Israeli minister "stormed" into the third holiest Muslim
place, describing Ben-Gvir as an "extremist minister in an extremist state" who
was convicted of incitement and known for his "racist views."Mansour recalled
that the Israeli opposition leader Ariel Sharon's visit in 2000 led to violent
clashes that erupted during the second Palestinian intifada. He urged the
Security Council and all countries to prevent this from happening and adhere to
international law, warning that "if they do not do so, our Palestinian people
will."He told the council that the Palestinians had "run out of patience,"
adding that Israel's insistence would lead to an intifada. "Which red line
should Israel cross so that the Security Council finally says: enough! and acts
accordingly? When will you act?" said Mansour. Israeli delegate Gilad Erdan, who
visited Haram al-Sharif, as Minister of Public Security in 2017, criticized the
Security Council for holding the emergency meeting on Ben-Gvir's 13-minute
visit, considering it a "Jewish right."Erdan called the meeting "insulting" and
"pathetic," adding that the council should instead meet about the war in Ukraine
or Iran killing protesters. "Israel has not harmed the status quo and has no
plans to do so," Erdan said. "The only side that is changing the status quo is
the Palestinian Authority. Why? Because by turning the site into a battleground
… the Palestinian Authority is making it clear that not only is Jewish prayer
intolerable on the Haram al-Sharif, but so is any Jewish presence."
"This is pure anti-Semitism," he added.
Meanwhile, the Jordanian ambassador, Mahmoud Hmoud, rejected Erdan's
accusations, stressing that Jordan never occupied the West Bank and East
Jerusalem. When Ben-Gvir visited Haram al-Sharif on Tuesday, he described it as
"the most important place for the Jewish people" and decried what he called
"racist discrimination" against Jewish visits to the site. Ben-Gvir said in a
video clip taken during the visit: "The Israeli government won't surrender to a
murderous organization, to a vile terrorist organization."UAE deputy ambassador,
Mohammed Abushahab, said that Ben-Gvir's provocative moves indicated a lack of
commitment to the existing historical and legal situation in the holy places in
Jerusalem. Abushahab warned that the minister's action further destabilizes the
fragile situation in the Palestinian territories, moves the region further away
from a path to peace, and threatens to escalate current tensions "and contribute
to fueling and stoking extremism and hatred in the region." Moreover, the
Chinese ambassador, Zhang Jun, expressed his regret over the recent events and
called on all parties concerned to exercise restraint to prevent the escalation
of tensions in East Jerusalem. "Israel, in particular, should stop provocation
and unilateral actions vis-a-vis the historical status quo of the holy sites,"
said Zhang. Russia's UN ambassador Vassily Nebenzia expressed "serious concern"
at Ben-Gvir's visit and said he hoped the new Israeli Cabinet "would not take
the path of escalation" and "create irreversible realities on the ground."
Furthermore, the US deputy ambassador, Robert Wood, stressed President Joe
Biden's support for the "historical status quo,", especially in the Haram al-Sharif.
Wood said the US noted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's platform calling for
preserving the status quo, adding: "We expect the government of Israel to follow
through on that commitment." The White House had warned Israel that any
unilateral action in the holy sites in East Jerusalem was unacceptable.
Normalisation faces darker outlook as Israel
shifts hard-right
The Arab Weekly/January 07/2023
Arab states now have to balance new partnership with Israel with historic
support for Palestinian aspirations.
Israel’s sharp tilt to what is likely to be the most hard right government in
its history puts its new Arab allies in the awkward position of having to deal
with ultra-nationalists while trying to do more than just pay lip service to the
Palestinian cause. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s cabinet, sworn in last
week, includes hardcore rightist parties who want to annex occupied West Bank
land where Palestinians have long sought to establish an independent state. That
poses a dilemma for four Arab states – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain,
Morocco and Sudan – that moved toward normal ties with Israel two years ago and
now have to balance this new partnership with historic support for Palestinian
aspirations. When the UAE, the Gulf business and investment hub and a rising
regional power, became the first Gulf Arab country to strike a deal with Israel
in 2020 to establish ties, it hoped that long-standing, combustible issues such
as Israeli settlements in occupied territory could be resolved. While Netanyahu
has said he will have final say on policy, his government’s commitment to expand
West Bank settlements and the inclusion of ultra-nationalists in his cabinet
militates against any compromise with Palestinians. Security Minister Itamar
Ben-Gvir is a pistol-packing, ex-member of an outlawed Jewish militant group. He
came up through the Kahane Chai organisation, which is blacklisted in Israel and
the United States for its virulently anti-Arab doctrines. On Tuesday he
infuriated Palestinians and drew a barrage of condemnation by visiting the Al
Aqsa mosque compound, a flashpoint site revered by Muslims and Jews that is
located in east Jerusalem, captured in 1967 and later annexed by Israel. Another
of Netanyahu’s coalition partners is Bezalel Smotrich, head of the far-right
Religious Zionism party who like Ben-Gvir is a West Bank settler averse to
Palestinians’ self-rule, let alone their hopes of statehood. “Both the UAE and
Bahrain would have certainly not preferred this government as this will
certainly test their relations with Israel,” said Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi
analyst specialising in Gulf-Israel relations. “If there is conflict…, both the
UAE and Bahrain would experience pressure to do something.” However, Alghashian
said both Gulf powers had invested political capital in the agreements with
Israel, known as the Abraham Accords after the ancient patriarch revered by
Jews, Muslims and Christians alike, and are unlikely to break ties if serious
conflict between Israel and the Palestinians recurs.
Discreet contacts
For the UAE, the diplomatic breakthrough with Israel capped years of discreet
contacts in important commerce and technology and may help the Gulf monarchy
craft an image as a force for stability in a turbulent Middle East. The UAE did
not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on this article. Israel
and the UAE ratified a comprehensive economic partnership agreement in December,
after Netanyahu’s election victory. It is expected to be the widest-ranging deal
of its kind between Israel and an Arab state. Ties have also been bolstered by
shared fears that Iran poses an existential security threat to much of the
Middle East, and early signs suggest both countries want to keep the
relationship strong. UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan called
Netanyahu to congratulate him on his inauguration and voice his hope “to push
forward the path of partnership and peace between the two countries,” the UAE
state news agency said. Bahrain said on Friday it was committed to working with
Netanyahu’s government, describing the veteran Israeli leader as one of the
architects of the Abraham Accords and predicting the relationship would
“continue to move from strength to strength.”A Bahrain government spokesman said
the accords provided a path to peace “in a manner that guarantees the rights of
the Palestinian people, with the establishment of an independent Palestinian
state with east Jerusalem as its capital”. Ben-Gvir indicated that he was
interested in developing closer relations, speaking in a videotaped interview
given at a hotel reception put on by the UAE embassy in Israel on December 1,
after he signed a coalition pact with Netanyahu. “This is the proof that one can
make peace without concessions, without capitulation – but rather, peace, peace,
between people who have affection for one another,” he said in comments
published by the conservative Israel Hayom newspaper.
Betrayal
Palestinian officials have said they feel betrayed by fellow Arabs for forging
relations with Israel without first demanding progress toward the creation of a
Palestinian state. In Ramallah, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Wasel Abu
Youssef, a member of the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s Executive
Committee, called on Arab states to review relations with Israel. “Arab
countries who formed normalisation ties with the state of occupation are
required more than ever to revise these agreements,” he said by phone. “What is
required today is to impose a comprehensive siege and isolation against the
occupation state and the government of fascist policies and to expose its crimes
before the world.” That may be wishful thinking. There appears to be no sign of
danger to the Abraham Accords, even though they may not be so popular on the
Arab street. But Palestinian options are limited. Netanyahu has pledged to build
on the achievement during his previous term of the Abraham Accords that opened
the way to a possible normalisation of relations with other Arab countries. He
wants to cultivate relations even with Saudi Arabia, the most conservative and
cautious Middle East heavyweight. “Peace with Saudi Arabia will serve two
purposes,” he told the private Saudi TV channel Al Arabiya last month. “It will
change our region in ways that are unimaginable. And I think it will facilitate,
ultimately, a Palestinian-Israeli peace.” Saudi Arabia is opening up somewhat
under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but has been cool to normalisation with
Israel in the absence of progress in the Palestinians’ statehood quest.
“Normalisation with Israel will not help us at all, on the contrary it will
increase the brutality against us, it will cause a war, we will face problems
and massacres,” said Rawan Abu Zeid, 18, a resident of Palestinian
Islamist-ruled Gaza.
Biden faces Israel quandary with new Netanyahu
government
WASHINGTON (AP)/Sat, January 7, 2023
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new government is little more than a
week old but it's already giving the Biden administration headaches. Just days
into its mandate, a controversial member of Netanyahu’s right-wing Cabinet riled
U.S. diplomats with a visit to a Jerusalem holy site that some believe may be
harbinger of other contentious moves, including vast expansions of Jewish
settlement construction on land claimed by the Palestinians. And, Netanyahu's
government adopted punitive measures against the Palestinians that run in direct
opposition to several recent Biden moves to boost U.S.-Palestinian relations,
including restoring assistance to the Palestinian Authority that had been cut
during the Trump administration and allowing Palestinian officials to visit the
United States. The new government is an unwelcome complication for a Biden
national security team seeking to shift attention away from the Middle East and
toward rivals like China and Russia. It also comes as Republicans take control
of the House of Representatives and are eager to cast Biden as unfriendly to
Israel ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Bracing for more turmoil, Biden
is dispatching his national security adviser to Israel in mid-January in a bid
to forestall potentially deepening rifts between his administration and its top
Mideast partner. That visit by Jake Sullivan may be followed by other high-level
trips to Israel, including one by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, according
to administration officials.
Their message goes beyond warnings about inflaming tensions with Palestinians:
It's also about not cozying up with Russia, particularly now that Moscow is
relying on Israel's main enemy, Iran, in its war on Ukraine; and not upsetting
the delicate Middle East security balance.
Since Netanyahu won hotly contested elections last year with huge support from
the Israeli right, U.S. officials have sought to tamp down predictions of a
collision course, saying they will judge his government on actions rather than
personalities. Biden himself spoke of his years-long relationship with
Netanyahu.
“I look forward to working with Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has been my friend
for decades, to jointly address the many challenges and opportunities facing
Israel and the Middle East region, including threats from Iran,” Biden said when
Netanyahu took office Dec. 29.
Yet while Biden and Netanyahu have known each other for years, they are not
close. Biden and former Obama administration officials who now work for Biden
still harbor resentment toward the prime minister who, during his previous
iteration as Israel’s leader, sought to derail their signature foreign policy
achievement: the Iran nuclear deal.
Still, the administration is signaling it will engage with Netanyahu while
avoiding more extreme members of his government. That approach wouldn't be
unprecedented in the region: The U.S. deals with Lebanon's government while
shunning members from the Hezbollah movement, a designated foreign terrorist
organization that is nonetheless a domestic political power. But, it would be
remarkable for the U.S. to take a similar approach with such a close ally. “We
will be dealing directly with Prime Minister Netanyahu,” State Department
spokesman Ned Price said this week when asked about possible contacts with
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's, whose visit to the site
known to Jews as the Temple Mount and to Muslims as the Noble Sanctuary prompted
a major outcry. The inclusion of Ben-Gvir, a West Bank settler leader, and other
extreme right-wing figures in Netanyahu’s government who are hostile to the
Palestinians and opposed to a two-state resolution has put Israel and the United
States on opposite paths. On Thursday, the deputy U.S. ambassador to the United
Nations, Robert Wood, at an emergency meeting of the Security Council called by
Arab states to condemn Ben-Gvir's holy site visit, underscored Biden's firm
support for “the historic status quo,” especially the “Haram Al-Sharif/Temple
Mount.”Wood noted that Netanyahu had pledged to preserve the status quo — “We
expect the government of Israel to follow through on that commitment,” he said —
and stressed that the administration placed a priority on preserving the
possibility of a two-state solution. But on Friday, Netanyahu’s Security Cabinet
approved a series of punitive steps against the Palestinian leadership in
retaliation for the Palestinians pushing the U.N.’s highest judicial body to
give an opinion on the Israeli occupation of the West Bank.Those moves
underscored the hardline approach to the Palestinians that Netanyahu's
government has promised at a time of rising violence in the occupied
territories. The Security Cabinet decided to withhold millions of dollars from
the Palestinian Authority and transfer those funds to a compensation program for
the families of Israeli victims of Palestinian militant attacks. And, it will
deny benefits, including travel permits, to Palestinian officials who "are
leading the political and legal war against Israel.” Meanwhile, Biden's
administration is moving in a diametrically opposed direction. Since taking
office, the administration has reversed the Trump ban on aid and provided more
than $800 million in economic, development, security, and other assistance to
the Palestinians and the UN agency for Palestinian refugees. In the fall, the
State Department obtained a Justice Department opinion that allows Palestinian
officials to visit the United States and spend money in the U.S. despite laws
barring such travel and transactions and a Supreme Court ruling that Congress
has an enforceable role in the foreign policy process. The administration “may
reasonably assess that being prevented from hosting the PLO delegation in
Washington would seriously impair the president’s diplomatic efforts,” the
Justice Department said in a little-noticed Oct. 28th opinion. Then, exactly one
week before Netanyahu took office in late December, the State Department imposed
but immediately waived terrorism sanctions against the Palestinian leadership,
saying engagement with the Palestinians is a critical U.S. national security
interest.
On Dec. 22, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman notified Congress that she
had imposed travel bans on senior leaders of the Palestinian Authority and
Palestine Liberation Organization because they “are not in compliance” with
requirements to tamp down and publicly condemn terrorist attacks against
Israelis. But, in the same notification, the State Department said Sherman had
waived the travel bans “based on her determination that such a waiver is in the
national security interests of the United States.”“An enduring and comprehensive
peace between Israel and the Palestinians remains a longstanding goal of U.S.
foreign policy,” the department said. “A blanket denial of visas to PLO members
and PA officials, to include those whose travel to the United States to advance
U.S. goals and objectives, is not consistent with the U.S. government’s
expressed willingness to partner with the PLO and PA leadership.”Despite a
more-than-$3 billion annual assistance package to Israel and diplomatic backing
in international forums, U.S. sway with Netanyahu appears limited. The Biden
administration has not yet followed through on its pledge to re-open the U.S.
consulate in Jerusalem, which had historically served as the main contact point
with the Palestinians, and it has made no move to re-open the Palestinian
embassy in Washington. Both facilities were shut down during the Trump
administration. Alon Liel, a former director-general of the Israeli Foreign
Ministry, said further U.S. rapprochement with Palestinians may be the only way
to influence Netanyahu. “If they really want to inflict pressure (on Israel),
Biden tomorrow should say in the coming months, we will consider reopening the
Palestinian embassy in Washington. Then they will see the earth shaking here,”
Liel said. “But there is no sign of that,” he said. “As long as they say, ‘We’re
worried about your democracy,’ those words are meaningless because there were so
many words. There’s nothing behind the words.”
*Laurie Kellman contributed from Jerusalem.
After bitter Republican dispute, McCarthy
named US House speaker
Agence France Presse/January 07/2023
Republican favorite Kevin McCarthy was named speaker of the U.S. House of
Representatives on Saturday as he quelled a fierce rebellion among his party's
ranks that had paralyzed the lower chamber of Congress for days. McCarthy was
always the frontrunner to lead the Republican-led House, but his victory in the
small hours of the morning was almost derailed by a right-wing revolt in his
party that extended the contest to a historic 15 rounds of voting. The speaker
wields huge influence in Washington by presiding over House business and is
second in line to the presidency, after the vice president. As he accepted the
gavel, McCarthy vowed House Republicans would "pass bills to fix the nation's
challenges, from the wide open southern border to 'America last' energy
policies, to woke indoctrination in our schools.""America's long term challenges
-- the debt and the rise of the Chinese Communist Party -- Congress must be with
one voice on both of these issues," he told the House. Democratic U.S. President
Joe Biden congratulated McCarthy in a statement calling for cooperation between
the leaders of the two parties. "As I said after the midterms, I am prepared to
work with Republicans when I can and voters made clear that they expect
Republicans to be prepared to work with me as well," Biden said.
Republican infighting
McCarthy had been hoping to secure the gavel in the 14th voting round before
midnight Friday but suffered a shock setback amid astonishing scenes of
Republican infighting as he came up short of a majority by just one vote out of
more than 400 cast. As Matt Gaetz voted "present" to deny McCarthy the gavel,
the disappointed Republican leader went over to talk to the Florida
lawmaker-elect face-to-face. Gaetz pointed a finger at McCarthy, who began
retreating as Alabama's Mike Rogers lunged at Gaetz and had to be held back with
a restraining arm across his face.
"The 'Speaker' selection process, as crazy as it may seem, has made it all much
bigger and more important than if done the more conventional way," former
president Donald Trump chimed in on his Truth Social platform. "Congratulations
to Kevin McCarthy and our GREAT Republican Party!" The Republicans, who hold a
razor-thin majority, had been mired in internecine warfare as Trump-backed
McCarthy failed to win the speakership in multiple ballots, with around 20
conservative hardliners blocking his path since Tuesday. But the 57-year-old
Californian was able to pick up more than a dozen votes among the defectors in
two afternoon voting rounds Friday after offering major concessions. McCarthy
predicted he would win in the 14th round -- but suffered a humiliation given
wall-to-wall coverage on US news channels before finally bagging his victory in
the 15th.
Major concessions
There were more rounds of voting in the fractious 2023 contest than in any
speaker election since the Civil War. McCarthy had projected confidence all
week, even as he was bleeding votes rather than adding to the base of around 200
Republicans who have backed him all along. His party's takeover of Congress is
expected to herald the end of cross-party cooperation, with the legislative
process gridlocked and Republicans promising an aggressive agenda of
investigations into most aspects of Biden's administration and his family.
Democrats and some of McCarthy's supporters, in private, are concerned that he
has been offering his far-right critics radical policy commitments that will
make the House ungovernable. There were reports, which AFP has not verified,
that he had agreed to propose keeping spending at 2022 levels, including a cap
on military funding which would have the same effect as a $75 billion cut. That
has raised alarm among defense hawks pushing for the United States to project
strength amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine and an emboldened Chinese stance on
Taiwan.
Poisoned chalice?
No single lawmaker, however senior, has the authority to set budgets, but the
fact that the suggestion was being taken seriously underscores the Republicans'
turn towards isolationism under Trump's leadership. Other lawmakers-elect were
complaining that McCarthy was handing the hardliners plum committee posts and
changes to the rules that would severely curtail the role of the speaker. The
renegade Republicans are understood to have flipped their votes in exchange for
rule changes making it possible to oust the speaker in a vote called by just one
member. They are also asking for an outsized role in deciding which bills make
it to the floor and how they are handled. Democrats said the speaker role would
be a poisoned chalice, as the compromises McCarthy has made will leave him as
the weakest speaker in modern history.
Israel police arrest 2 teens in attack on Christian cemetery
JERUSALEM (AP)/January 07/2023
The Israeli police on Friday arrested two teenagers who they said vandalized
over two dozen Christian graves in a historic Jerusalem cemetery earlier this
week. The graves of Christian figures at the Protestant Cemetery on Jerusalem’s
venerated Mount Zion were found pushed over and pulled from their foundations on
Sunday, unsettling the contested city's Christian minority and drawing worldwide
condemnation. The cemetery is more than 170 years old and houses prominent
members of the armed forces and clergy in the holy city. Late Thursday, the U.S.
Embassy’s Office of Palestinian Affairs said it was “concerned” that the
religious site was targeted again — the second time in a decade. “Religious site
vandalism by anyone is unacceptable,” the office said. “Jerusalem must be a city
for all of its people.”Israeli police did not name the suspected vandals but
said they were ages 18 and 14 and residents of central Israel. Security camera
footage of the attack showed two young men wearing a Jewish skullcap and tzitzit,
the knotted ritual fringes worn by observant Jews, knocking over crosses,
breaking tombstones and throwing debris over the graves. “Any damage to
religious institutions and sites is serious and harms the unique and delicate
fabric of life that exists in the city," the police said, describing the act as
“intentional vandalism.” A Jerusalem court on Friday held a hearing to extend
the detention of the two teenagers. The Anglican Church in Jerusalem has
denounced the desecration as the latest hate crime targeting the Christian
community in Jerusalem amid the decadeslong Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Thousands of Israelis protest new government's policies
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP)/Sat, January 7, 2023
Thousands of Israelis took to the streets Saturday evening to protest plans by
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new government that opponents say threaten
democracy and freedoms. The protesters gathered in the central city of Tel Aviv
days after the most right-wing and religiously conservative government in the
country’s 74-year history was sworn in. “The settler government is against me,”
read one placard. Another banner read, “Housing, Livelihood, Hope.” Some
protesters carried rainbow flags. The protest was led by left-wing and Arab
members of the Israeli parliament, the Knesset. They contend that proposed plans
by the new Cabinet will hinder judicial system and widen societal gaps. The
left-wing protesters slammed Justice Minister Yariv Levin, who on Wednesday
unveiled the government’s long-promised overhaul of the judicial system that
aims to weaken the country’s Supreme Court. Critics accused the government of
declaring war on the legal system, saying the plan will upend Israel’s system of
checks and balances and undermine its democratic institutions by giving absolute
power to the new governing coalition. “We are really afraid that our country is
going to lose the democracy and we are going to a dictatorship just for reasons
of one person which wants to get rid of his law trial," said Danny Simon, 77, a
protester from Yavne, south of Tel Aviv. He was referring to Netanyahu, who was
indicted on corruption charges in 2021, allegations that he has denied.
Protesters also called for peace and co-existence between Jews and Arab
residents of the country. “We can see right now many laws being advocated for
against LGBTQ, against Palestinians, against larger minorities in Israel,” said
Rula Daood of “Standing Together,” a grassroots movement of Arabs and Jews. “We
are here to say loud and clear that all of us, Arabs and Jews and different
various communities inside of Israel, demand peace, equality and justice.”
Houthis' Commemoration of Soleimani's Death Sparks Anger among Yemenis
Sanaa - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 January, 2023
Houthi militias celebrated the third anniversary of the assassination of the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander of the al-Quds Force, Qassem
Soleimani, sparking angry reactions among Yemenis. Social media activists and
journalists saw the celebration as a confirmation of the group's absolute
affiliation with the Iranian regime. The Houthi militia commemorated the
ceremony and erected large images of Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, head
of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), in Sanaa and other cities under its
control. Sanaa residents condemned the enormity of the images, which are
estimated to cost millions of Yemeni riyals, while more than 25 million Yemenis
live below the poverty line. An employee of the Public Works Office in Sanaa,
who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat under a pseudonym, said that the group used the
giant billboards and expensive advertising spaces to prove its affiliation with
Iran. He added that people could understand had the Houthi militia erected
pictures of its dead commanders of its leader, but for the third year in a row,
it commemorates the killing of Soleimani. He accused the group of wanting to use
Yemen to target regional countries, spread chaos and terrorism in the region,
and threaten international navigation. Meanwhile, a Sanaa public servant, who
referred to himself as Saeed, denounced the celebration, saying millions of
people suffer from war, corruption, and the group's repression. Saeed told
Asharq Al-Awsat that the Houthi's celebration consolidated Iran's hegemony over
the Yemeni governorates under its control and the group's absolute subordination
to the Tehran regime. He said it was better for the Houthi militia to respond to
the demands of Yemeni employees to pay their salaries instead of using the money
for such events. Abdullah, a website editor from Sanaa, indicated that the group
has become a mouthpiece that glorified the Iranian elements and incited Yemenis
"to take revenge." Another journalist in militia-controlled areas told Asharq
Al-Awsat it was shameful and disgraceful that several Yemeni cities, including
Sanaa, celebrated the anniversary.
Several international reports confirmed earlier that Iranian influence in Yemen
has become similar to Iranian influence in Iraq, thanks to the Houthis' strong
loyalty to Tehran. On several occasions, the Yemeni government attacked the
Houthi militia's celebration of the anniversary of Soleimani's assassination.
Minister of Information, Culture, and Tourism Moammar al-Eryani said the Houthi
militia's commemoration of the death of Soleimani is a new confirmation of
Houthi dependency and complete submission to the mullahs' regime in Iran. Eryani
added that the Houthi militia spends hundreds of millions celebrating the
symbols of Iranian terrorism, whose hands are stained with blood in Iraq, Syria,
Lebanon, and Yemen.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 07-08/2023
The Middle East
enters the year 2023: Where and what to watch
Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/January 07/2023
BEHIND THE LINES: Is change, for better or for worse, likely in the year ahead?
Here are three Middle East arenas to watch carefully in the months ahead. As
2023 begins, flux and instability remain the only constants in the Middle East.
The Arab world today is filled with broken and partially collapsed polities.
Yemen, Libya and Syria are subject to de facto division, and occupation by
foreign forces. Lebanon and Iraq are under de facto control by Iran in key
areas. The bright hopes momentarily raised a decade ago by popular mobilization
seem very distant now. Is change, for better or for worse, likely in the
year ahead? Prediction may seem like a fool’s errand in a region where
unexpected and dramatic events are the norm. But a glance at the regional map
reveals processes already underway from which some inferences may cautiously be
drawn. Here are three Middle East arenas to watch carefully in the months ahead:
Iran
The demonstrations and strikes that began in Iran’s Kurdistan province in
September 2022, following the death at the hands of the authorities of a young
woman, show no signs of waning. Mahsa (Jina) Amini was killed in custody after
being arrested for improper wearing of her government-mandated headscarf. The
unrest that followed rapidly spread throughout Iran. It is the most serious and
sustained wave of anti-regime activity since the birth of the Islamic Republic
of Iran in 1979. The demands of the demonstrators have long moved beyond the
issue of the compulsory hijab. “Death to the dictator,” is one of the most
common slogans to be heard. More than 500 demonstrators have now been killed,
including 69 children. Two protesters have been executed and another 26 are on
death row. A number of members of the security forces have also been killed. In
the latest development, a member of the paramilitary Basij was killed this week
by protesters in the course of a raid on a house in the city of Semiram, in
Isfahan province, central Iran. Isfahan is a majority Persian area, testimony to
the fact that the protests have long outgrown their beginnings in the Kurdish
provinces, and now take in all elements of the Iranian population. The unrest in
Iran looks set to continue. The regime, however, does not currently appear in
danger of imminent collapse. An Iranian revolutionary now resident in northern
Iraq described to this author in November a scenario in which the ongoing
unrest, and in particular strikes in crucial sectors of the economy, will over
time cause a gradual loss of control by the regime. Optimism, of course, is a
required ingredient for Middle East revolutionaries. For Middle East analysts,
it is a substance only to be sampled rarely. The Iranian uprising
currently lacks cohesive leadership. It is not quite true that the
demonstrations are entirely unorganized. Kurdish nationalist movements are
assisting and advising the protests in Kurdish areas. Baluch and Ahvazi Arab
groups are active also in their relevant provinces. Monarchist groups have some
support among Persians. But there is no single, united leadership in a position
to contest the issue of power with the Islamic regime. As of now, there
are also no signs of major splits in the security forces. In the beginning, the
protesters hoped that elements of the “Artesh,” the regular, non-political
Iranian army, might come over to their side. This has not yet happened. These
two absences mean that the most likely scenario in 2023 is for the unrest to
continue, hurting the regime, and keeping it busy, but without toppling it.
Israel/Palestinians
The Palestinian national movement is deeply divided, and Palestinian politics is
in disarray. Probably, neither Fatah nor Hamas has the capacity to launch an
organized, centralized, armed insurgency in the West Bank of the type witnessed
in the 2000-2004 period. This does not mean that things are set to remain quiet.
Islamic sentiment, and particularly perceived threats to al-Aqsa Mosque in
Jerusalem, are still able to galvanize anger among young Palestinians. Ramadan,
a time of heightened religious focus and observance, tends to be the period when
the Palestinian public is most susceptible to appeals detailing the supposed
danger to the mosques. The appointment of Itamar Ben-Gvir as National Security
minister, and the latter’s apparent determination to promote the issue of Jewish
prayer rights at the Temple Mount, may increase the likelihood of clashes around
this most combustible of issues. The year 2021 saw the outbreak of widespread
rioting among Arab citizens of Israel following Hamas’s firing of missiles at
Jerusalem, again in response to a supposed threat to al-Aqsa. Meanwhile, the
Ramadan period and the months following it in 2022 witnessed the emergence of
two related phenomena. The first was a series of terror attacks carried out by
Palestinians professing allegiance to the Islamic State organization (ISIS).
Assaults carried out by them took place in Beersheba, Hadera and Jerusalem.
The second element was the emergence of loosely organized armed gangs of young
Palestinians in the northern West Bank towns of Jenin and Nablus. The gangs in
question, called the “Jenin Battalion” and in Nablus the “Lions’ Den,” represent
a new form of armed structure. They are not initiated by or controlled by any
Palestinian group, but rather are an ad hoc collection of young men connected to
a variety of organizations or to none, but with access to weaponry and means of
transport, and with a willingness to attack Israelis. A series of terror attacks
emerged from this nexus during Ramadan and the period following it. The latest
indications are that Hamas, Islamic Jihad and their Iranian backers have taken
note of the emergence of these organizations, and are finding ways to offer them
assistance and duplicate arrangements of this kind in other West Bank cities.
Ramadan in 2023 begins on March 22. Keep the date in mind.
Syria
Syria has for the last three years been in a situation of stalemate and de facto
partition. Three areas of control exist: the Assad regime area, supported by
Russia and Iran; the Kurdish/SDF area, supported by the US; and a Sunni
Islamist/jihadi-controlled area, underwritten by Turkey. Against this backdrop,
Israel’s campaign to prevent Iranian entrenchment and consolidation over Syria’s
ruins has continued apace. There are now indications that the diplomacy of the
Syrian war is once more on the move. Specifically, Turkey appears to be edging
toward rapprochement with the Assad regime, and alliance with it against what
they regard as the PKK-controlled Kurdish area. Ankara appears to be considering
returning its own area of control to the Assad regime, as part of this
rapprochement. In recent weeks, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been threatening a
renewed military offensive against the Syrian Kurds. US and Russian pressure
appear to have deterred him. A Russian-brokered diplomatic process is now
underway, intended to result in a summit between Erdogan, Vladimir Putin and
Bashar Assad before the summer. Erdogan faces general elections in June 2023,
and would clearly like to be able to present diplomatic achievements on Syria
before that time. The Turkish public would like to see the departure of
the Syrian refugees. The opposition is making this issue a central point of its
criticism of Erdogan, and anything pointing toward the eventual return of the
refugees would be welcomed. It remains unclear if the Russians will
succeed in brokering an agreement to the satisfaction of both parties. But their
effort – and the possible unblocking of diplomacy on Syria in a direction, which
if achieved, would benefit Russia and its Iranian ally, at the cost of US allies
– is worthy of close attention.
Reflection on the Career of First UN Sec-Gen
Post-Cold War
Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy/Asharq Al Awsat/January 07/2023
The centennial anniversary of the birth of former United Nations
Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali was last December. This provides an
occasion to reflect not only on the career of a public figure with a unique
experience at the national, regional, and international levels but also on the
role of the UN Secretary-General during a time when the international system is
in a state of flux. Boutros-Ghali has had an illustrious career replete with
diverse experiences rarely found in any Egyptian, Arab, or African public
figure. He was a distinguished academic, Editor- in Chief of two prominent
publications, minister of state for foreign affairs, UN Secretary-General,
Secretary General of the Francophone, and lastly the first President of the
Egyptian Council on Human Rights. Boutros-Ghali could not have held these
diverse positions if he had not possessed special personal qualities (
leadership, flexibility, independence, creativity, and perseverance). It is
ironic that these very qualities are the same that prevented his re-election as
UN Secretary-General.
But also Boutros-Ghali became UN Secretary-General amidst exceptional
international conditions. He was the first Secretary General elected after the
end of the Cold War. This was the time when the line was blurred between
internal and international crises, the Balkans being the main example. Under his
watch, there was also Somalia, Rwanda, the initial phase of the Oil-for-Food
program in Iraq, Lockerbie in Libya, and the Qana report which was the first
report that held Israel responsible for attacking a UN facility in Lebanon. In
short, the UN was simultaneously faced with more but also different crises than
it had ever before.
Boutros-Ghali has had important intellectual contributions concerning the UN's
role in the post-Cold War emerging international environment. He produced the
Agenda for Peace, the Agenda for Development, and the Agenda for Democracy. All
these initiatives tackled critical yet controversial issues, especially the
relationship between the maintenance of international peace and security,
development, and human rights. To this day this triangular relationship
represents the main challenge facing not only the UN but the international
system as a whole.
He predicted the problems that have and continue to stand in the way of the UN
in effectively discharging its role. In particular the disparity between the
ambitions of member states and their reluctance to provide the required
resources to see them through. That is equally true with regard to the
maintenance of international peace and security as well as development. He has
also broadened the concept of “ Preventive Diplomacy “ and introduced the idea
of “ Peace Building “ in post-conflict situations ( that was implemented in
Cambodia and Timor ). He also expanded peacekeeping operations to allow for the
protection of humanitarian assistance.
This was later developed into the concept of the Responsibility to Protect R2P,
which justified international interventions in internal crises without the
consent of host governments. Also with the objective of improving the
performance of the United States, he generated a plethora of ideas, such as
decentralization of decision-making by moving many functions away from
headquarters to the field and unifying and streamlining UN representation in
developing countries. Many of his ideas were adopted by his successors.
Also during his tenure, a variety of international conferences took place on
issues that have come to form the international economic and social agendas to
this day. The 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro which laid the foundation for
international efforts in the area of climate change. The 1993 Vienna Human
Rights conference. The Cairo 1994 Population conference. The Copenhagen Social
Summit and Beijing Women’s conference were both held in 1995.
Boutros-Ghali operated in an exceptional environment. This environment was the
result of the interaction of multiple factors, some related to his personal
qualities and others from his professional experience and yet others were
influenced by international conditions.
The most important of these factors can be summarized as: He was the first UN
Secretary-General to be elected from a country that has a tradition of an
energetic foreign policy, taking clear and mostly independent positions and
initiatives on a variety of international issues. This was reflected in his
proactive stance.
He was also the first UN Secretary-General to be elected after the end of the
Cold War, a condition that theoretically was expected to provide a wider margin
for action, which he tried to make use of. The reality however proved to be the
opposite. The United States would not allow that. The UN financial crisis was
exacerbated as a result of the unprecedented proliferation of peacekeeping
operations and the reluctance of member states, in particular the United States,
to provide the necessary funds. Putting aside the tenures of the first two
Secretaries General Trygve Lie and Dag Hammarskjold, he was the only
Secretary-General not to have a direct experience with the UN secretariat.
During the tenure of the first two secretaries-general, the secretariat had not
yet achieved an established modus operandi. All the other secretaries-general
were familiar with the way the secretariat operated. U Thant, Kurt Waldheim,
Perez de Cuellar, and Ban Ki-Moon all served as permanent representatives of
their respective countries. Antonio Gutierrez served as High Commissioner for
Refugees. Kofi Annan was a staff member for decades. This was both an advantage
as well as a disadvantage. An advantage in the sense that it allowed
Boutros-Ghali to think and operate without the usual restrictions international
civil servants operate under. A disadvantage in the sense that he lacked
experience in dealing with a large and powerful multinational bureaucracy with
diverse affiliations.
Finally but probably more important, he did not have the support of the United
States. The Bush administration preoccupied with establishing itself as the sole
superpower after the end
of the Cold War had a clear preference for Canadian Prime Minister Brian
Mulroney. Under pressure from Africa and France, it reluctantly allowed his
election to go through.
This reluctance gradually turned into outright hostility during the Clinton
administration.
Perhaps the critical factor that influenced Boutros-Ghali’s tenure as UN
Secretary-General was his relationship with the United States. The latter’s
attitude towards the organization has been ambivalent since its establishment,
taking a sharply negative turn during the Reagan administration. At the time the
increasingly the influential right wing of the Republican Party portrayed the UN
as an international plot designed not only to undermine American supremacy in
the world but also as a means to undermine its sovereign powers. Regrettably, no
US administration has been able to totally reverse this perception amongst the
public.
The Clinton administration’s top priority was domestic affairs. The slogan upon
which the President Clinton was elected was “It's the economy, stupid “. What
remained from the administration’s attention was focused on securing American
hegemony in the post-Cold War international order.
It was thought it could be achieved through constraining both Russia and China
in a relatively short period of time before the leadership in both countries is
stabilized. At the time leaderships in both countries were in a state of
transition. Russia from Gorbachev to Yeltsin and China from the founding
generation ( Deng Xiaoping) to a new one (Jiang Zemin).
The result was incoherent policies that produced a multitude of failures such as
in Somalia and the Balkans. It was therefore politically expedient to attribute
such failures to the United Nations and its Secretary-General. The situation
reached its zenith during the 1996 presidential campaign. Nonetheless, it is
important to note that President Clinton in its early months permitted a fairly
large margin of maneuver to Boutros-Ghali. This, however, was quickly reversed
once the administration settled in power.
Ultimately the adversarial relationship between Madeline Albright and
Boutros-Ghali was his undoing. Albright as the US Permanent Representative
needed to embellish her credentials as a candidate for the position of Secretary
of State by preventing the re-election of Boutros-Ghali. Ultimately, in a
precedent, he failed to be re-elected due to an American veto, although he
received the remaining 14 votes in the Security Council.
History will ultimately judge the legacy of Boutros-Ghali. Along with the first
two Secretaries-General, Trygve Lie and Dag Hammarskjold, he was unable to
complete the customary two terms of the UN Secretary-General. Trygve Lie
resigned because he was unable to effectively perform his duties due to his
deteriorating relationship with the Soviet Union as the result of the UN
intervention in the Korean War. Hammarskjold was killed when his aircraft was
mysteriously shot down in Congo. Moreover, both Hammarskjold and Boutros-Ghali
were elected in exceptional international circumstances. The first started his
second term after the end of the colonial era as the result of the 1956 Suez
War. The second after the end of the Cold War. Both adopted an expansive
interpretation of the role and authority of the Secretary-General.
Probably the most important legacy of Boutros-Ghali is that he might be the most
ambitious and audacious Secretary-General in the sense that he challenged the
limits to his authority that the major powers, particularly the United States,
were prepared to accept. He also challenged the comfort zone in which UN staff
members had operated for decades.
In conclusion, the lessons derived from Boutros-Ghali’s experience is that when
there is a single superpower the role of the United Nations is weakened. Also,
the best means to control the organization is to undermine the role of its
Secretary-General and politicize the secretariat.
Now that the international system appears to be moving towards Multipolarity,
there is still hope for the United Nations to fulfill the role envisaged by the
authors of its Charter.
Musk is Repeating Trump’s Mistakes
Mamdouh al-Muhainy/Asharq Al Awsat/January 07/2023
At first, Donald Trump’s strategy for dealing with the US media was intelligent.
He considered it part of the coalition of corrupt elites that he promised to get
rid of. Seeking to undermine the media and its credibility, called it fake news
and said that journalists are corrupt, giving them a long list of titles. In
contrast to the perception of many who saw him as an impulsive figure who did
not weigh his words, Trump knew what he was doing. His attacks on the media
reinforced his image as an outsider being fought because he was against the
establishment and sought to get rid of it. The media, on the other hand, was
painted as seeking to protect the establishment and the interests of their
owners, who are in bed with the politicians in Washington.
It was an ingenious strategy until he took it too far, becoming paranoid and
deluded into thinking he was being targeted. This led him to make one mistake
after another, and they eventually led to his ouster from the White House. In my
view, the media cleverly tricked him. They attacked him relentlessly, going as
far as depicting him as an unstable man unsuited for the most important job in
the country who damaged the image of the presidency. These are among the
elements that the Biden campaign focused on, undermining his image as a man
worthy of leading the nation.
Most American and Western media outlets were explicitly anti-Trump, and they did
not hide the fact their aim was to get rid of him before he even completed his
first term. For Trump’s part, he gave them all the material they could have
dreamed of.
The symptoms of a man who felt persecuted and unfairly targeted quickly became
apparent. His long quarrels with journalists damaged his image. In that famous
press conference, CNN correspondent John Acosta deliberately sparked an argument
with him and provoked him in front of millions of viewers. With malicious
cunning, Acosta triggered Trump’s outbursts, which were not befitting for
presidents.
Trump berated journalists at press conferences, treating them like
schoolchildren and demanding that they sit down and shut their mouths. However,
he forgot that these journalists were devouring him like hyenas without him
realizing it, leaving him to bleed out till the end.
By the time COVID hit the US, Trump had reached an advanced stage of paranoia
and made glaring mistakes. He sparked a conflict with the medical team, refused
to wear a mask, and, terrifyingly, denied the scientific facts at a time when
the number of deaths was increasing.
He was primarily motivated by a desire to defend himself against the media
outlets that were seeking to exploit the COVID pandemic to push him out. And so
he went the opposite direction, denied the facts, and accused others of
baselessly attacking him and trying to take their revenge. Nonetheless, it is
his refusal to recognize the results of the elections and the January 6 attack
on the Capitol that are the clearest manifestations of his volatility and
delusions.
Trump’s story has been well documented, but Elon Musk is repeating this
scenario. Musk did the right thing when he opened the door to dialogue and
weakened the grip of the radical left on Twitter, breaking the iron-clad
monopoly that massive companies had enjoyed. However, he has begun making the
same kinds of mistakes because of journalists’ attacks, defending bizarre and
illogical ideas put forward by deranged characters and websites knee-deep in
conspiratorial thinking.
Musk’s attack on Dr. Anthony Fauci, who led the war on the pandemic in the
United States, is one example. Sharing a link claiming that Nancy Pelosi’s
assaulted husband had been sexually involved with a man is another. These are
indications that Musk feels like a persecuted victim. It is not just a desire to
hit back at what he sees as unjust attacks from the media that drives him.
Convinced that Twitter is the voice of the people and aims to fix human
civilization, he also wants to present Twitter as an alternative to journalism
and the media.
And that just isn’t true. Twitter is a platform where nothing is sourced, and
while it allows information to spread faster than it does through the media, it
is an inherently open space where even conmen and sick individuals can spread
their obsessions. Twitter is a platform for the exchange of ideas. However,
Musk, who is angry with the press and picking fights with journalists, believes
he can not only challenge the media and confront it but obliterate it. We have
already seen this story, and we are well aware of how it ends.
Turkey supports Ukraine without alienating Russia
Michael Weiss and James Rushton/Yahoo News/Sat, January 7, 2023
On Dec. 20, two Turkish air force A400M transport aircraft that had been
stranded at an airfield just outside of Kyiv for 299 days took off and returned
home. The planes, believed to have been used to shuttle Turkish drones and other
weapons to Ukraine, had been grounded by Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion. The airspace
between Ukraine and Turkey since has remained contested by Russia and too
dangerous to risk the return journey.
What happened just a few days before Christmas?
According to Western diplomatic sources, Moscow gave Ankara assurances its cargo
planes would not be targeted by Russian jets or missiles on their voyage home.
The Kremlin, in other words, offered safe passage to a NATO member that, less
than a year ago, was delivering unmanned aircraft for future use against the
Russian army. As strange episodes go, few could better encapsulate the complex
relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It’s a relationship that at times seems bound by mutual
interests and shared hostility toward the United States and Europe, and, at
other times, by a quiet geopolitical antagonism between the two that veers into
proxy warfare if not a lukewarm state of active conflict. In 2015, at the nadir
of modern Turkish-Russian relations, a Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down a
Russian Su-24M attack aircraft. The Russian airplanes were part of its military
intervention in the Syrian civil war, intended to bolster the flailing regime of
Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. Turkey has supported Syrian insurgent groups, and
the shoot-down occurred over the Turkish-Syrian border. In response, Moscow
imposed economic sanctions on Ankara, restricting Turkish imports, ending
charter flights between the two countries and banning Russian tour operators
from selling holiday packages to a popular destination. “Erdogan and Putin are
enemies, but they’re enemies who deal with each other and are happier and more
comfortable dealing with each other than with anyone else,” James F. Jeffrey, a
former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, told Yahoo News. Turkey’s effort to maintain
diplomatic, commercial and military ties to Russia while doing the same with
Ukraine, a country at war with Russia for almost a decade, has been one of the
most precarious balancing acts of statecraft in recent memory. More
surprisingly, it has been largely successful. Alone among world leaders, Erdogan
arms Putin’s adversary with impunity while managing to offer himself as a
seemingly neutral interlocutor between Kyiv and Moscow, orchestrating prisoner
swaps, grain deals and preliminary — albeit quixotic — proposals to end the war.
On Thursday, Erdogan called for Putin to declare a “unilateral ceasefire” in
Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, stating that such a gesture would “endorse”
calls for “peace and negotiations” and a “vision of a fair solution.” Later that
day, in a clear indication that this proposal had been coordinated, Putin
declared that a ceasefire would indeed take effect from midday on Friday to
midnight on Saturday, the period Orthodox Christians in Russia celebrate
Christmas. The proposal was, understandably, greeted with contempt in Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed it as a “cover” to allow
Russian forces to regroup and resupply in the face of a coming Ukrainian
offensive in the eastern region of Donbas. None of Zelensky’s ire, however, was
directed at Erdogan.
Power projection and self-enrichment are clear motives for Erdogan. Turkey under
his leadership has embroiled itself in armed conflicts not just in its immediate
vicinity but as far afield as North Africa and the Caucasus. Wars in Syria,
Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh not only advance Turkey’s strategic interests but act
as proving grounds and international expos for modern Turkish weapons systems
that are then sold to third-party nations. Yet Turkey remains the only NATO
country to refuse to impose any sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
Even now, its hotels, resorts and ports are used by vacationing Russian elites,
including prominent oligarchs whose assets and yachts have been seized in other
jurisdictions. Russia also continues building a nuclear power plant in Akkuyu,
in the southern town of Büyükeceli, which is due to come online in 2023 and is
currently intended to supply around 10% of Turkey’s total energy needs. This
comes at a time when Europe has gone to great lengths to wean itself off Russian
oil and gas, often amid the background noise of Ukrainian fulminations that such
a dependency on Russian energy only emboldened Putin to start the largest land
war Europe has experienced since World War II. In Kyiv, Erdogan is considered if
not quite a committed ally, then certainly not an enemy, owing to what matters
most of all to Ukrainians: ongoing and escalating weapons deliveries. “The
average Ukrainian takes Turkey as a friend,” a Ukrainian journalist, who asked
to remain anonymous, told Yahoo News. “Our government declares this in public
too. But everyone understands that Erdogan is dancing at both weddings. He’s
getting benefits from Russia as well.” “Together with the United Kingdom, Turkey
has provided Ukraine with the most significant military support before the
second invasion of Ukraine by Russia,” said Ömer Özkizilcik, an Ankara-based
foreign policy and security analyst. “Since then, Turkey has stepped up its
military assistance to Ukraine ranging from vests to guided multiple rocket
launchers and armed drones.”
Turkish delight
The signature Turkish weapons system first sent in 2019 and throughout the war
has been the cost-effective and combat-proven small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)
Bayraktar TB2, of which Ukraine is now believed to have a 50-strong fleet. And
they continued well after the Russian invasion last year, being delivered by
ground convoy from the Polish border into western Ukraine. These deliveries
continue to the present day. In April 2022, a senior officer of Ukraine’s
military intelligence agency, HUR, gave Yahoo News a tour of the route TB2s have
taken into Ukraine. Asked how many at that time the country had received, the
HUR officer, who asked not to be named as he wasn’t allowed to talk to the
press, said, “Let’s put it this way. It’s a lot more than has been disclosed
publicly, and it’s more than enough.” During the Battle of Kyiv, TB2s, taking
advantage of the confused and rushed nature of the Russian advance into
Ukraine’s capital, flew repeated combat sorties over Russian positions,
destroying air defense systems, command and control centers, and critical fuel
trucks. The combat footage that emerged boosted Ukrainian morale at a crucial
time, even causing a jaunty Ukrainian war ditty, “Bayraktar,” to go viral.
Although the TB2 was largely withdrawn from the battlefield when Russian air
defenses and electronic warfare began operating more effectively, the drones
were still used to great effect to opportunistically hit targets in isolated
positions such as Snake Island, off the coast of Odesa. Moreover, TB2s returned
to the front after Russian air defenses began to be suppressed by AGM-88 HARM
anti-radiation missiles quietly supplied to Kyiv by Washington. According to
open-source website Oryx, which has been maintaining a running tally of Turkish
military supplies to Ukraine and is also well-connected with the Turkish defense
industry, 15 TB2 drones Ukraine received after March 2022 were donated by
manufacturer Baykar Tech. Another 15 were sold to Ukraine at a discount between
30% and 50% of the retail price of $5 million. Baykar Tech also donated five
drones after crowdfunding campaigns by Lithuanian, Polish and Ukrainian citizens
raised sufficient funds to purchase the units; that money was instead diverted
to humanitarian aid. While nominally a private company, Baykar Tech has intimate
connections with the Erdogan government and the ruling Justice and Development
Party, also known as AKP, with Selçuk Bayraktar, the younger brother of Baykar
CEO Haluk Bayraktar and a key figure in the company, being married to Erdogan’s
daughter Sümeyye Erdogan, herself a former aide to her father’s party. Haluk
Bayraktar himself has been explicitly pro-Kyiv throughout the war, telling CNN
on July 18 his company would never consider supplying UAVs to Russia as “we
support Ukraine, support its sovereignty, its resistance for its independence.”
Baykar Tech’s collaboration with Ukraine doesn’t end with sales or donations;
the company inked an agreement with Kyiv to build its second drone production
plant in the country in 2021, and pledged to continue this plan despite the
current hostilities. Speaking in October, Bayraktar confirmed the plans were on
schedule and the plant would be completed in two years. Notably, the Russian
government has not once threatened to bomb this facility, whereas it routinely
says all foreign weapons systems incoming to Ukraine are fair targets.
In addition to drones, Turkey has also supplied 200 domestically produced Kirpi
MRAP armored personnel carriers, one of the largest shipments of a single model
of armored vehicle by a country other than the United States. In November, video
evidence emerged on Telegram confirming reports by Oryx that Turkey has sent an
unknown number of TRLG-230s, a modern and sophisticated laser-guided multiple
rocket launching system, to Ukraine without any public acknowledgment of the
fact. (The London-based news outlet Middle East Eye confirmed that report,
citing sources with knowledge of the transfer.) The TRLG-230s can be used with
TB2 drones to precisely hit moving Russian targets. The Turks have even played a
role in potentially re-creating a surface fleet for the Ukrainian navy. On Oct.
2, the first of two Ada-class corvettes being manufactured by Turkey, the Hetman
Ivan Mazepa, was launched in Istanbul at an event attended by Ukrainian first
lady Olena Zelenska. Like the Baykar Tech drone plant deal, this was another
contract signed before the war that continued without interruption. Taha Yaskin
Akar, an Ankara-based Turkish analyst well-connected to Turkey’s burgeoning
defense and security sector, told Yahoo News that Erdogan sees his country’s
military-industrial complex as a means of prying open doors that would otherwise
be closed to him. “For Eastern European countries, seeing what Turkey’s defense
systems can do in the field against Russia, the one power they’re most likely to
go to war with, makes them want what the Ukrainians have got.” Fellow NATO
allies Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, Akar noted, all inked deals to buy TB2s
from Baykar Tech within the last year. Nor is Ukraine the only battlefield where
these impressive drones have reduced Russian armor to scrap metal.
Proxy war
Russia and Turkey are on opposing sides of the Libyan civil war. Erdogan has
backed the United Nations-recognized Government of National Accord in the North
African nation, where NATO intervened in 2011, originally in the form of a
no-fly zone to stop Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi from committing atrocities,
an intervention that culminated in Gadhafi’s violent overthrow and lynching. On
the other side, Putin has authorized sending matériel and personnel to Libya to
assist warlord Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who is backed by France and the United Arab
Emirates.
Around 200 fighters from the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary corps financed by
U.S.- and EU-sanctioned Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, embedded with
Haftar’s Libyan National Army in fighting around the Libyan capital of Tripoli.
The Wagner Group has committed gruesome human rights abuses in Syria, Ukraine,
the Central African Republic and other countries, according to the European
Union. The U.S. Treasury Department labeled it a “Russian Ministry of Defense
proxy force.”
TB2s have destroyed Russian Pantsir S1 air defense systems protecting Wagner
operatives — and Haftar’s forces — in Libya.
Indirect warfare has also become direct. On Feb. 27, 2020, Russia bombed a
Turkish military convoy in the town of Balyun in the northwestern Idlib province
of Syria, killing 34 Turkish soldiers. In retaliation, Turkish TB2s and
artillery destroyed practically all of Assad’s military infrastructure in the
area. That event hasn’t been forgotten in the Turkish Foreign Ministry. On the
second anniversary of the Balyun attack, the Turkish Embassy in Kyiv gleefully
responded to footage of a TB2’s annihilation of a Russian military column in
Kherson, southern Ukraine, characterizing the strikes as revenge. “There is such
a thing as divine justice,” the embassy’s Twitter account posted, then
subsequently deleted. According to Özkizilcik, “Erdogan exploits Putin’s ego and
his desire for a ‘strong man’ image to maintain beneficial economic ties while
indirectly killing Russian soldiers in Ukraine. So he’ll sit down with Putin but
kick him under the table.” According to two Western diplomats who requested
anonymity, Turkey also has sent other types of military hardware to Kyiv
covertly. Much of that has to do with Ankara’s central economic preoccupation:
reopening maritime trade with Ukraine. According to Jeffrey, the former U.S.
ambassador, Erdogan wants to “neutralize Crimea,” the Ukrainian peninsula in the
Black Sea that Putin illegally seized in 2014. “The Turks want to put the
Russians under fire there and cut off most of their emergency resupply
capability.”Turkish and Russian competition over influence in Crimea goes back
centuries. A war was fought over the peninsula from 1853 to 1856 between the
Russian czar’s military and a Western alliance, including Great Britain and
France, along with the Ottoman Empire, the forerunner to the modern Republic of
Turkey. The Western-Ottoman side won, although Russia was allowed to retain
control of Crimea at the expense of the demilitarization of the Black Sea, which
severely curtailed Russian expansionism in the area. Jeffrey argues little has
changed since. “Turkey sees the biggest threat to its existence as the
re-creation of the Soviet empire. The Russian encroachment into Ukraine is
particularly sensitive, as this pushes Turkey into a competitive position with
the Kremlin on the Black Sea, the Balkans and the Caucasus — traditional
invasion routes for Russia for 250 years.”On Feb. 27, three days after Russia’s
invasion, Ankara limited the Russian naval deployment in the Black Sea by
invoking Article 19 of the 1936 Montreux Convention, closing the Bosporus and
Dardanelles straits to any Russian warships not already based there. As a
result, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, based for decades at the port city of
Sevastopol, Crimea, could not be joined by four additional Russian warships that
sought transit through the Turkish-controlled waterways during the first week of
the war. Turkey’s decision had even greater strategic consequences when Ukraine
sank Russia’s flagship cruiser, the Moskva, and Moscow could not simply replace
it with one of its sister vessels. The Black Sea Fleet is now deprived of the
long-range air defense capability the Moskva once provided via its S-300 missile
systems.
Erdogan has couched his intervention in the Black Sea region also in
humanitarian terms, having repeatedly spoken about the need for Russia to
withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. Its sizable
Turkic Muslim minority population, known as the Crimean Tatars, since Russia’s
takeover has been “relentlessly persecuted” by the Russian occupiers, according
to Human Rights Watch. Crimean Tatar leader Mustafa Dzhemilev, a former Soviet
dissident and political prisoner, has also repeatedly met with Erdogan in
Turkey. While referring to the Russian president as my “dear friend Putin,”
Erdogan affirmed that Crimea should be returned to its “rightful owners ... the
people who were living there ... the Crimean Tatars,” who Erdogan also pointed
out were of Turkish descent, in an interview conducted with PBS. This came
shortly after Erdogan met with Putin in Uzbekistan in September at the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization Heads of State Summit — where Erdogan kept Putin
awkwardly waiting for a bilateral meeting, a power move Putin is famous for
resorting to with Western leaders. Ankara’s diplomatic influence was able to
help create the July Black Sea Grain Initiative negotiated in Istanbul between
Ukrainian and Russian diplomats indirectly via the United Nations. This
breakthrough agreement lifted the Russian naval blockade on Ukrainian grain
exports to foreign countries, a major source of Ukraine’s economy. It also gave
the world one of the most diplomatically humiliating episodes for Moscow.
On Oct. 29, in the wake of a Ukrainian seaborne drone attack on Russian ships in
Sevastopol, Moscow announced it was pulling out of the Turkish-brokered grain
deal. Putin assumed this would stop all Ukrainian merchant ships from setting
sail given the obvious implication that they were once again fair game. Turkey
and Ukraine stood united in announcing their continued participation in the
grain deal, essentially calling Putin’s bluff. Moscow climbed down three days
later, claiming that the Russian Ministry of Defense received “written
guarantees” from Turkey that the grain corridor would not be used to “conduct
military operations against the Russian Federation.”
The Mediterranean mediator
Russia and Ukraine exchanged 200 prisoners of war on September 21, 2022, as a
result of Turkey’s mediation and diplomatic traffic conducted with the
leaders of the two countries, Erdogan announced. Russia and Ukraine
exchanged more than 200 prisoners of war on Sept. 21, 2022, Erdogan announced.
Turkey was intimately involved in the September prisoner exchange — the largest
so far since the war started — of 215 Ukrainian defenders captured at Mariupol
and foreign volunteers sentenced to death by kangaroo courts run by
Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. In return, the Kremlin took
custody of Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarch to whose daughter
Putin is godfather. Medvedchuk had been arrested by Ukraine’s domestic security
service, the SBU, in April. Russia also received a number of high-ranking
Russian officers taken prisoner in Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive in September,
some rumored to be as high as generals. That deal, negotiated in Istanbul,
stipulated that senior members of Ukraine’s Azov Regiment who fought in Mariupol
would remain in the Turkish city for the remainder of the war. In November, CIA
Director Bill Burns met with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Naryshkin, to
“communicate with Russia on managing risk,” a visit that also laid the
groundwork for the Brittney Griner/Viktor Bout prisoner exchange, as the cases
of “unjustly detained U.S. citizens” were also discussed. Again, Istanbul was
the location for the meeting.
Yet there is a clear limit to what Turkey is prepared to do either within or
without NATO when it comes to Ukraine, according to Jeffrey. “Erdogan has very
extensive trade relations with the Russians, and he knows that if he pisses them
off, they can sanction him, as they did in 2015,” Jeffrey said. “Erdogan
genuinely believes we need a negotiated ending to the war, albeit one with
maximum political objectives supporting Zelensky.”Empowering Ukraine, in other
words, empowers Turkey and weakens Turkey’s historic great-power rival in the
neighborhood. “Regardless of how the war ends, Turkey will strengthen its
position in the region,” a senior Ukrainian military official, who spoke on the
condition of anonymity, told Yahoo News. “That is why they are so skillfully
balancing between us and Russia now. With us they are ‘nice,’ with Muscovites
they are ‘smart.’”
د. ماجد رفي زاده / معهد جيتستون: إيران تعمق
وجودها داخل أمريكا اللاتينية
Iran Deepens Its Presence Inside Latin America
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/January 07/ 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/114768/majid-rafizadeh-gatestone-institute-iran-deepens-its-presence-inside-latin-america-%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%af-%d8%b1%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%87-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d8%ac%d9%8a/
"Initially, my colleagues and I thought these were embassy employees, though we
noticed their car number plates didn't belong to any embassy. We don't know what
they are transferring... Because they won't let us examine closely. We just know
that in past weeks, every day there are three to four flights to Venezuela." —
Unnamed source at Tehran's Imam Khomeini Airport, quoted by Iran International,
December 7, 2022.
Latin American countries are opportune places for Iranian covert intelligence
operations, especially against the US.
"One confidential intelligence document obtained by CNN links Venezuela's new
Vice President Tareck El Aissami to 173 Venezuelan passports and ID's that were
issued to individuals from the Middle East, including people connected to the
terrorist group Hezbollah." — CNN, February 14, 2017.
"We're concerned that [Venezuelan President] Maduro has extended safe harbor to
a number of terrorist groups... [including] supporters and sympathizers of
Hezbollah." — Nathan Sales, former coordinator for counterterrorism at the US
State Department, Small Wars Journal, January 20, 2020.
While the Biden administration continues to appease the Iranian regime, called
by the US Department of State the "world's worst state sponsor of terrorism,"
the Iranian mullahs are creating their single "umma" (nation) on the doorstep of
the US: Latin America. The Iranian regime's takeover of Latin America -- the
creation of terror cells, the access to Latin American passports, the rise of
Iranian-trained imams and militants in Latin America, the increasing recruitment
of radicals -- is a potential existential threat to the United States.
The Iranian regime, while using Latin America as a sanctuary, has been
increasing its presence and terror cells there. As protests continue in Iran,
regime officials are in the process of obtaining passports and asylum from Latin
American countries, particularly from Venezuela. Pictured: Venezuelan President
Nicolás Maduro meets with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on
October 22, 2016, in Tehran. (Image source: khamenei.ir)
One of the critical threats to the US national peace and security is that the
Iranian regime, while using Latin America as a sanctuary, has been increasing
its presence and terror cells there.
As protests continue in Iran, the Iranian regime's officials are in the process
of obtaining passports and asylum from Latin American countries, particularly
from Venezuela, at the doorstep of the United States.
According to a recent report:
"Western diplomatic sources told Iran International that the Islamic Republic
has started negotiations with its Venezuelan allies to ensure they'd offer
asylum to regime officials and their families should the situation worsen, and
the possibility of a regime change increases.... a delegation of four
high-ranking regime officials visited Venezuela in mid-October for negotiations
to ensure that the Caracas government would grant asylum to high-ranking
officials and their families in case 'the unfortunate incident' happens."
Three flights a day are leaving Iran to Venezuela with "a considerable amount of
cargo," according to a source at Tehran's Imam Khomeini Airport
"Initially, my colleagues and I thought these were embassy employees, though we
noticed their car number plates didn't belong to any embassy. We don't know what
they are transferring, and whether they are leaving the country with all the
luggage or not. Because they won't let us examine closely. We just know that in
past weeks, every day there are three to four flights to Venezuela."
Latin American countries are opportune places for Iranian covert intelligence
operations, especially those targeting the United States. A CNN report from 2017
stated:
"One confidential intelligence document obtained by CNN links Venezuela's new
Vice President Tareck El Aissami to 173 Venezuelan passports and ID's that were
issued to individuals from the Middle East, including people connected to the
terrorist group Hezbollah."
These passports could be used for travel to North America or Europe.
Nathan Sales, former coordinator for counterterrorism at the US State
Department, said:
"We're concerned that [Venezuelan President] Maduro has extended safe harbor to
a number of terrorist groups... [including] supporters and sympathizers of
Hezbollah."
The Iranian regime's plan to expand its influence and presence in Latin America
dates back to the mid-1980s, under the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini, as part of the ruling mullahs' core principle of exporting their
extremist revolution to other countries. As Khomeini famously stated:
"We shall export our revolution to the whole world. Until the cry, 'There is no
god but Allah' resounds over the whole world, there will be struggle."
The regime's key mission is even incorporated in Iran's current constitution:
"The constitution provides the necessary basis for ensuring the continuation of
the revolution at home and abroad. In particular, in the development of
international relations, the constitution will strive with other Islamic and
popular movements to prepare the way for the formation of a single world
community."
To spread its Islamist propaganda, the Iranian regime has set up Hispan TV, a
Spanish-language television station. In Latin America, Iranian terror cells have
grown. Al Mustafa International University and Iran's terror proxy Hezbollah
have played a key role in expanding the mullahs' presence and ideology in the
region. According to "United Against Nuclear Iran" (UANI), Al-Mustafa
International University is tasked with "training the next generation of Iran's
foreign Shi'a clerics, religious scholars, and missionaries...."
"It is estimated that Al-Mustafa has 40,000 foreign students enrolled at
present, roughly half of whom are studying at campuses within Iran. Many
Al-Mustafa graduates are selected by the Iranian regime to establish religious
and cultural centers in their home countries, where they can then recruit
students and inculcate loyalty to the Islamic Revolution among local
populations."
UANI adds:
"Al-Mustafa operates several branches in European countries, most notably the
Islamic College of London. Graduates of Al-Mustafa such as Italian cleric Abbas
DiPalma have gone on to form Iranian cultural centers in their home countries,
such as the Imam Mahdi Center in Rome. Al-Mustafa has also dispatched Lebanese
graduates as missionaries to Latin America, where they seek to create inroads
with expat communities and proselytize among local populations."
Evidence presented at court hearings linked Tehran to the bombings in Buenos
Aires of the Israeli Embassy in 1992, and a Jewish community center there in
1994.
While the Biden administration continues to appease the Iranian regime, called
by the US Department of State the "world's worst state sponsor of terrorism,"
the Iranian mullahs are creating their single "umma" (nation) on the doorstep of
the US: Latin America. The Iranian regime's takeover of Latin America -- the
creation of terror cells, the access to Latin American passports, the rise of
Iranian-trained imams and militants in Latin America, the increasing recruitment
of radicals -- is a potential existential threat to the United States.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated
scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and
president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has
authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at
Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Will 2023 be the year of change in Iran?
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/January 07/2023
The year 2023 will be a fateful year for the Iranian regime. Any change
regarding that regime will mean a lot not only for Iran itself, but also for
Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
More than a hundred days have passed since the popular uprising started in Iran.
The essence of the uprising has to do with a systemic crisis linked to issues
now beyond the freedom to wear the hijab and how to wear it or not to wear it.
The crisis is related to what the Iranians have fought for, as they got rid of
the Shah's regime only to fall victim to a far worse regime.
Will change happen in Iran in 2023? There is no easy answer to that question.
All that can be said is that change will definitely occur in Iran. The uprising
has not stopped since the death of a Kurdish young woman, Mahsa Amini, on
September 16, and has involved most of the Iranian peoples.
There is need, from time to time, to use logic and to look at numbers to realise
how the existing regime, which operates under the name of the “Islamic
Republic”, has failed to offer anything which the Iranians have sought. It has
also pushed the entire region, especially the Arab world, from bad to worse.
With regard to Iran itself, the regime established by Ayatollah Khomeini in
1979, based on the notion of the “Velayat-e-Faqih,” promised not to be dependent
on oil and gas revenues. In the year 2022, Iran would have had no revenues
hadn’t it been for oil and gas.
All American and European interest in Iran has to do with the country’s oil and
gas resources and the potential contribution of such resources to alleviating
the global energy crisis. At the core of the crisis is the Russian war on
Ukraine and the near interruption of Russian gas that used to flow to European
countries, as well as US and European sanctions on the Russian Federation.
Dependence on Iranian oil and gas is no longer an option as the “Islamic
Republic”, after Vladimir Putin’s Ukrainian adventure, which has exposed the
depth of the relationship between Tehran and the Russian president. After
providing the Russian army with various weapons, including missiles and drones,
Iran became a partner in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Just as Putin has been a
partner of the “Islamic Republic” in the war against the Syrian people.
There is no clear benefit for Iranian citizens in their country being an ally of
Russia in its aggression against a European country such as Ukraine. The latter
cannot fall into the arms of Putin for a very simple reason, which is that the
fall of Ukraine means the fall of all of Europe to Russian blackmail. At the
regional level, one can ask what the Iranian regime is doing in Iraq, Syria,
Lebanon and Yemen. There is only one answer to that question. The “Islamic
Republic” is bringing to the four countries only ruin, misery and backwardness
through sectarian militias which it has funded and nurtured for years.
More than 100 days after the outbreak of the popular uprising in Iran, it is
useful to make a few observations. The first one is that the Tehran regime seems
for the first time since 1979 to be making a concession, which is related to the
morality police. It is a formal but quite significant concession which consists
in reconsidering whether or not to impose the veil. Implicitly, the regime is
trying to reconcile with its people. Obviously, it is ignorant of a very
important fact, which is that the Iranian people and Iranian women in particular
have transcended the issue of the hijab. What matters for them is the dignity of
citizens and their refusal to remain captive to a regime that has managed to
isolate their country, a heir to the great civilisation that is the Persian
civilisation, from the rest of the civilised world. The regime will not be able
to reconcile with the Iranian people. This is its biggest problem. It has no
choice but to step down or to follow the path of the minority regime in Syria,
which waged war against its own people after they demanded, snce March 2011,
some of their dignity back. If the Iranian regime chooses to follow in the
footsteps of the Syrian regime, two questions will arise. The first is who will
support it if it follows this course? The second question is whether the war
waged by the Syrian regime against its people has achieved anything except the
fragmentation of Syria and its transformation into a country under five forms of
occupation.
The year 2023 will be a fateful year for the Iranian regime. Any change
regarding that regime will mean a lot not only for Iran itself, but it also for
Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, that is, four Arab countries whose fate is now
at stake.