English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 28/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Ask, and it will be given to you; search, and you will find; knock, and the door will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives, and everyone who searches finds, and for everyone who knocks, the door will be opened.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 07/01-12/:”‘Do not judge, so that you may not be judged. For with the judgement you make you will be judged, and the measure you give will be the measure you get. Why do you see the speck in your neighbour’s eye, but do not notice the log in your own eye?

Or how can you say to your neighbour, “Let me take the speck out of your eye”, while the log is in your own eye? You hypocrite, first take the log out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to take the speck out of your neighbour’s eye. ‘Do not give what is holy to dogs; and do not throw your pearls before swine, or they will trample them under foot and turn and maul you. ‘Ask, and it will be given to you; search, and you will find; knock, and the door will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives, and everyone who searches finds, and for everyone who knocks, the door will be opened. Is there anyone among you who, if your child asks for bread, will give a stone? Or if the child asks for a fish, will give a snake? If you then, who are evil, know how to give good gifts to your children, how much more will your Father in heaven give good things to those who ask him! ‘In everything do to others as you would have them do to you; for this is the law and the prophets.


Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 27-28/2023
Election of a new president remains a priority, Lebanon’s caretaker PM tells cabinet
Lebanon security chief’s term to end after authorities skip on renewal
Mikati says Ibrahim's extension needs law, salutes Akkar for rejecting strife
Report: $500 million 'embezzled' by Salameh in Swiss banks
Reports: Christians reject Franjieh-Salam deal as bishop continues talks
Berri broaches developments with Ain El-Tineh visitors, meets Audit Bureau delegation, former Ministers Karim Pakradoun and Wadih El-Khazen
Ibrahim meets Shea, Wronecka
Mikati chairs cabinet session: Our meeting aims to tackle urgent affairs
Makary: National News Agency’s archive server stolen, investigations underway to uncover perpetrator
Gen. Aoun meets Sri Lanka Ambassador, UN peace coordinator
Justice Minister meets IMF delegation
Defense Minister meets French Senator Hélène Conway-Mouret
Geagea says normalizing with Assad is normalizing with Iran
Arrest of Hezbollah financier 'most senior catch' since 2017 - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/February 28/2023
Locals In South Lebanon: Hizbullah Using Environmental Organization As Cover For Activity Near Israel-Lebanon Border/N. Mozes/MEMRI/February 27, 2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 27-28/2023
Without Evidence, Iran Denies Reports It Enriched Uranium to Near Weapons-Grade
Iranian girls being ‘deliberately poisoned’ to stop them going to school
Iran says UN nuclear watchdog chief to visit in ‘coming days’
Hundreds protest newly proposed election law in Iraqi capital
Russia 'Likely Concerned' Over 'Unexplained Explosions' In Important City, UK Says
An 'elite' Russian unit is being weakened by severe front-line losses, and the replacements appear to be making things worse, Western intel says
India failed in its mission to stop G20 countries from referring to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a 'war'
Putin's £274m spy plane blown up by Belarusian partisans
Jordan, Bahrain sign deal to boost private sector cooperation
Global outrage over killing of Palestinian civilians by Israel
Palestinian gunman critically wounds Israeli in new violence
Ultra-conservative Israeli minister quits, will back Netanyahu in parliament
Israeli minister praises settlers who torched Palestinian town
Analysis-Netanyahu's balancing act got harder after post-summit violence
Israel beefs up troops after unprecedented settler rampage
Israel, Palestinians Reaffirm Need to Work Together
Egypt’s FM visits Syria and Turkey in show of solidarity after deadly quake

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 27-28/2023
Why the West Bank is in chaos/Jonathan Schanzer and Joe Truzman/Washington Examiner/February 27/2023
UN General Assembly votes 141-7 for Russian Forces to Withdraw from Ukraine/Bradley Bowman and Jack Sullivan/Policy Brief/February 27/2023
This War May Be Heading for a Cease-Fire/Sergey Radchenko/The New York Times/February, 27/2023
A Race of Competing Bets and The Diplomacy of Catastrophes/Sam Menassa/Asharq Al Awsat/February 27/2023
Iran file crucial to Netanyahu-Biden relationship/Chris Doyle/Arab News/February 27, 2023
Daesh and the Hashd enable each other’s war to dominate Iraq/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/February 27, 2023
Al-Sudani’s balanced approach key to addressing Iraq’s crises/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/February 27, 2023

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 27-28/2023
Election of a new president remains a priority, Lebanon’s caretaker PM tells cabinet
Najia Houssari/Arab News/February 27, 2023
Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi condemned ‘the refusal of the parliament to elect a president for individual and partisan interests’
Ministers on Monday approved a gasoline allowance for teachers and a $50 million loan for the payment of international debts
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati reminded cabinet ministers on Monday of their duty “to facilitate the necessary matters of the citizens and maintain the functioning of public facilities,” as the government met for a third time amid the ongoing failure to select a new president.
He stressed that “the election of a new president remains a priority, as it will be the beginning of the regularization of public work and will grant the country a grace period to rebuild.” The office of president has been vacant since Michel Aoun’s term concluded at the end of October. The legitimacy of the cabinet meetings has been rejected by Maronite Christian party the Free Patriotic Movement, on the grounds that they violate the role of the president while the office is vacant. During his Sunday sermon, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi said that all the indications are that there will be “a prolonged presidential vacuum” and spoke of a “danger threatening the Lebanese nationality and entity” as a result of “the refusal of the parliament to elect a president for individual and partisan interests.”Cabinet members authorized an allowance of five liters of gasoline for public school teachers who have been on strike for more than two months because their salaries can no longer cover transportation costs amid the financial crisis in the country and the massive decline in the value of its currency. They approved a request by the Higher Relief Committee to continue the assessment of buildings in Lebanon left damaged or uninhabitable as a result the earthquakes that hit Syria and Turkiye this month and other natural factors. They also allocated 100 billion Lebanese pounds ($1.2 million) in accommodation allowance for the occupants of buildings recommended for evacuation by inspection committees.
In addition, ministers approved a $50 million loan, with an interest rate of 4 percent, for the payment of debts owed to international organizations.
However, the cabinet did not address an extension of the mandate for Director of General Security Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, which is due to expire within days. Ministers are of the opinion that such a decision requires a law to be passed but the current parliament is an electoral body only and does not have the authority to pass legislation. A legal solution for extending the term, bypassing the government and parliament, is being investigated, which would allow for him to be reappointed under the mobilization of reserves law.
Many other official and military posts will become vacant in the coming weeks and months, including the office of governor of the country’s central bank in July. The current governor, Riad Salameh, who is facing money laundering and corruption charges, has said he will not seek another term.
Minister of Information Ziad Makary said cabinet members did not approve an “increase to the transportation allowance of military personnel, pending a study to be conducted by the ministry of finance, so the increase would include all public sector workers.”
After the meeting, Mikati said efforts to “alleviate people’s suffering needs everyone’s cooperation. During the meeting, we asked to postpone some decisions for a short period of time as we are waiting to receive accurate figures and the volume of imports from the Ministry of Finance.
“I promise employees that we will follow up the matters within two weeks, maximum, so we can take the right decisions, since we can’t grant allowances and increases for certain categories only and without taking into consideration retired military personnel and other retirees.”
Bechara Al-Asmar, the head of Lebanon’s General Labor Union, previously told Arab News that poverty levels in the country are rising and “if 30 percent of the Lebanese people were in acute poverty in 2019, this percentage is increasing day by day now because people are losing their jobs.”
He added: “Institutions are closing their doors, the value of the Lebanese currency keeps decreasing, the purchasing power of the people is going down every day, the middle class is shrinking and 20 percent of the people are living on another planet,” in a reference to the wealthy elite.
Meanwhile the archive server of the state-run National News Agency was stolen on Monday from a Ministry of Information building in Hamra, Beirut, that reportedly lacked appropriate security.
Minister of Information Ziad Makary described the theft as a crime the size of a country and said: “Ministry staff were surprised this morning to find the door to the room broken down and the contents stolen. Security and judicial investigations were launched immediately.”
Also on Monday, service resumed at Lebanese banks after a strike lasting for more than two weeks. They reopened after the Ministry of Interior took steps to prevent any judicial action being taken against them by Mount Lebanon’s state prosecutor, Judge Ghada Aoun, who is investigating financial crimes.

Lebanon security chief’s term to end after authorities skip on renewal
Reuters/February 28, 2023
BEIRUT: The term of Lebanon’s powerful General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim is set to end this week as neither cabinet nor parliament have discussed a measure that would allow him to stay on after reaching the legal retirement age. Ibrahim, who hails from southern Lebanon, has headed the General Security directorate since 2011 and is considered a key regional interlocutor who has good ties with the Iran-backed group Hezbollah and links with Western governments. On Thursday, he will turn 64, which is the legal retirement age in Lebanon. Lebanese authorities have in the past issued exceptional exemptions for top officials to stay on past 64 if a vacuum in their post is seen as risking instability. But Lebanon’s caretaker cabinet did not discuss an extension at its meeting on Monday. Information Minister Ziad Makary told reporters after the meeting that cabinet “can do nothing” and that the decision was to be taken by the interior minister. Caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Al-Mawlawi, whose ministry manages General Security and some other security forces, did not respond to a Reuters request for comment. Lebanon’s caretaker premier Najib Mikati said in an interview last week that the issue should be dealt with by parliament as it involved legal amendments. Parliament has not met and no session is scheduled before Ibrahim is set to retire. A source close to Hezbollah told Reuters that the group had tried to “throw its full weight” behind a parliament session to extend Ibrahim’s term but was unable to secure enough support. Mawlawi is expected to name an acting chief once Ibrahim’s term ends. Lebanon is already in an unprecedented constitutional crisis — with the presidency vacant and cabinet acting in a caretaker capacity since last year’s parliamentary elections. Ibrahim is seen as close to Hezbollah and authorities in neighboring Syria, but he has also regularly traveled to Washington and Paris to meet top officials there. As a result, he has been seen as an important interlocutor, involved in cases from the missing US reporter Austin Tice to US-mediated talks between Lebanon and Israel on their maritime border, which was delineated last year. He was charged earlier this year by Tarek Bitar, the Lebanese judge investigating the catastrophic August 2020 Beirut port explosion, but remained in his post. Ibrahim declined to comment on the charges at the time.

Mikati says Ibrahim's extension needs law, salutes Akkar for rejecting strife
Naharnet/February 27/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati told the ministers, in a cabinet session on Monday, that cabinet cannot extend the term of General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim and that the extension needs a law. Local media had reported that Ibrahim's term might be extended through an administrative decision or a Cabinet resolution should parliament fail to hold a legislative session. Mikati announced later that he is seeking a “legal exit” for the issue of extending the term of Ibrahim and that the move would not require a cabinet session. At the start of Monday's session, Mikati saluted the people of Akkar "who have been wise and have shown that they reject strife" after the killing of Sunni Muslim cleric Sheikh Ahmed Rifai. Rifai was the imam of the main mosque in the northern town of Qarqaf in the impoverished northern Akkar region. There were concerns that Rifai's case would incite sectarian tensions in the deeply-divided country since he was a harsh critic of Hezbollah as well as the Syrian government and Iran. It turned out Rifai was killed by people from his hometown, including some relatives. They said that years ago some residents and the cleric accused one of Rifai's relatives who was Qarqaf's mayor of corruption. During Monday's session, cabinet approved to give teachers a daily transport allowance that equals 5 liters of gas. Public school teachers have been on strike, demanding an adjustment of their LBP salaries as the Lebanese pound has lost more than 95% of its value and the price of gas surged. They were already underpaid before the onset of the economic crisis two years ago and have since been pushed deeper into poverty. Their salaries in pounds are a fraction of what they used to be due to the currency's rapid devaluation. Many cannot afford to purchase fuel to go to work after the government gradually lifted subsidies causing the price of hydrocarbons to more than quadruple within a few months.

Report: $500 million 'embezzled' by Salameh in Swiss banks

Agence France Presse/February 27/2023
Banks in Switzerland are holding a substantial amount of the millions of dollars Lebanese central bank chief Riad Salameh is accused of embezzling, Swiss media reported on Sunday. Salameh, 72, faces investigations related to suspicions of money laundering and illicit enrichment in Lebanon and abroad after he amassed a fortune in the country mired in financial crisis. Judge Raja Hamoush on Thursday filed new charges against Salameh, his brother Raja and his former assistant Marianne Hoayek for embezzlement of public funds and money laundering. Salameh categorically denies all accusations against him and has rarely appeared before the judiciary, despite numerous complaints, summonses, investigations and a travel ban issued against him a year ago. Twelve Swiss banks have received a large part of the money he is alleged to have embezzled, estimated at up to $500 million, SonntagsZeitung reported on Sunday. The Swiss weekly said $250 million was left on Raja Salameh's personal account with HSBC's subsidiary in Geneva. Other amounts ended up with UBS, Credit Suisse, Julius Baer, EFG and Pictet, with the transactions carried out using an offshore company registered in the British Virgin Islands, the report added. "Considerable sums" were then allegedly used to buy real estate assets in several European countries. SonntagsZeitung said some of the funds have already been frozen, but federal prosecutors have not revealed how much. Switzerland's federal market regulator FINMA has been carrying out preliminary investigations into 12 Swiss banks "for months", it reported. A spokesman told the weekly that legal proceedings had been started against two banks in the "Lebanese context", but their names were not revealed. Lebanon opened an investigation into Salameh's assets in 2021, after a request for assistance from Switzerland's public prosecutor probing more than $300 million in fund movements by the governor and his brother.
Riad Salameh has headed Lebanon's central bank since 1993.

Reports: Christians reject Franjieh-Salam deal as bishop continues talks
Naharnet/February 27/2023
The country’s two main Christian blocs -- the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement -- have rejected a proposed, French-backed presidential settlement under which Suleiman Franjieh would be elected as president and Nawaf Salam would be named as premier, media reports said on Monday. In a statement, the LF denied a media report published in al-Liwaa newspaper that had claimed that it was willing to “secure quorum for Franjieh’s election.”“The LF has repeatedly stressed its stance that categorically rejects any Hezbollah presidential candidate, and accordingly this stance fully applies to the candidate of the Axis of Defiance, Mr. Suleiman Franjieh,” the LF said. The FPM has also “incited” Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea not to “back down” from his stance, al-Liwaa reported on Monday. The Nidaa al-Watan newspaper meanwhile said that Maronite Archbishop of Antelias Antoine Abu Najem intends to carry out a second round of meetings with Christian leaders to “relay the Maronite patriarch’s proposals based on his first tour, during which he explored the stances of those leaders and their approach toward the presidential crisis.”

Berri broaches developments with Ain El-Tineh visitors, meets Audit Bureau delegation, former Ministers Karim Pakradoun and Wadih El-Khazen
NNANNA/February 27/2023
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday received at his Ain al-Tineh residence, a delegation from the Audit Bureau, which included its president, Judge Mohammad Badran.
The delegation handed Speaker Berri three reports over the 2000 budget's closure of account, donations to the Lebanese state, and another donation to the central inspection. Speaker Berri also received former Minister Karim Pakradoun, with whom he discussed the current general situation and political developments. Berri then welcomed former Minister Wadih El-Khazen. The visit was an occasion to discuss the latest political developments and the presidential juncture.

Ibrahim meets Shea, Wronecka

NNA/February 27/2023
Lebanon’s General Security General Director, Abbas Ibrahim, on Monday welcomed US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, with whom he discussed the latest developments on the domestic scene.
In addition, General Ibrahim met with United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka, with whom he reviewed the general situation, and the means of boosting coordination between Lebanon’s General Security and United Nations agencies.

Mikati chairs cabinet session: Our meeting aims to tackle urgent affairs

NNA/February 27/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, is currently chairing a cabinet session at the Grand Serail, in the presence of Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh al-Shami and ministers. “Our presence in this session today is to manage the urgent affairs of citizens, to maintain the activity of public facilities, as well as to affirm our keen concern on every Lebanese citizen’s dignity, security, and stability,” Mikati said in an address to the convening cabinet. “We will not spare an opportunity to cooperate with all concerned sides to rescue the economy, ensure bank deposits, and maintain financial balance,” Mikati added.
“We’ve previously affirmed in the ministerial statement our respect for the judiciary and our intention to refrain from interfering in its affairs, but there are matters that concern the supreme Lebanese interest, and the course of the judiciary, which affects the course of justice. (…) In exceptional circumstances, there are exceptional decisions that must be taken — no one should think that we are protecting some person or individuals. Our goal is to protect the banking sector because it is an essential pillar of the economy; therefore, we want this sector to be dealt with through the banking restructuring bill that we had submitted to the House of Parliament,” Mikati explained. “The country’s top priority remains the election of a new President of the Republic since this election is the gateway to reorganizing public work, especially amid these difficult circumstances,” Mikati added.
“This week I met with Total, which confirmed that its course of action is proceeding as planned and scheduled, and that it’s in the process of starting all the necessary tests to begin the extraction process,” noted Mikati. “There is also an item on our agenda to give public administration employees a compensation in exchange for their productivity, and in this context I address the retirees, especially the military ones, to confirm my keenness to give them their rights according to the authority granted to us by the House of Parliament and based on the decision of the Council of Ministers,” Mikati added.

Makary: National News Agency’s archive server stolen, investigations underway to uncover perpetrator
NNA/February 27/2023
Caretaker Minister of Information, Eng. Ziad Makary, on Monday issued the following statement: “The National News Agency’s archive server that includes pictures of all occasions since 1961, was subjected to theft, in addition to the theft of five computers from the archive room. The Ministry staff was surprised this morning with the room door broken and the contents being stolen. We immediately contacted the competent judiciary and the Internal Security Forces’ Director General, Major General Imad Othman, and investigations were launched. We will spare no effort to help those concerned to uncover the whole truth until the perpetrator is punished.”Minister Makary said what happened constitutes a huge crime.

Gen. Aoun meets Sri Lanka Ambassador, UN peace coordinator
NNA/February 27/2023
Lebanese Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, received, at his Yarze office on Monday, the Ambassador of Sri Lanka to Lebanon, Kapila Susantha Jayaweera, with whom he discussed the bilateral military cooperation between the two countries.
General Aoun later met with the UN
Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process (UNSCO) Tor Wennesland, over the general situation in Lebanon and the broader scene.

Justice Minister meets IMF delegation
NNA/February 27/2023
Caretaker Justice Minister, Henry Khoury, on Monday met with a delegation of the International Monetary Fund, over the legislation of laws relevant to fighting corruption and money laundering. The delegation also inquired about the laws relevant to the independence of the judiciary. It is to note that the delegation will hold several meetings this week with the judicial authorities and officials, before issuing a final report summarizing the reality of the judiciary in Lebanon and an array of recommendations.

Defense Minister meets French Senator Hélène Conway-Mouret

NNA/February 27/2023
Caretaker Minister of National Defense, Maurice Sleem, met, at his ministry office on Monday, with French Senator Hélène Conway-Mouret, accompanied by French Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo. Talks reportedly touched on the Lebanese-French bilateral ties.

Geagea says normalizing with Assad is normalizing with Iran
Naharnet/February 27/2023
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea dubbed Monday a meeting between a delegation of Arab parliamentary leaders and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad as "shameful." "It is truly shameful to see a delegation of Arab parliamentarians taking advantage of the tragic earthquake to meet Syrian President Bashar al-Assad," Geagea said. On Sunday, a delegation of Arab parliamentary leaders met with Assad in Damascus, including the speaker of Egypt's parliament, Hanafy al-Gebali. Assad has been politically isolated in the region since the start of the 12-year civil war in Syria. While Cairo and Damascus have largely maintained relations during the conflict, the Cairo-based Arab League suspended Syria in 2011 and some other Arab countries have severed ties with it. But since the earthquake, the Syrian president has received calls and aid from Arab leaders, a momentum analysts say he could leverage to bolster regional support. Geagea said that Assad has killed more civilians than the earthquake, adding that the people of Syria have and will always belong to the Arab fold, while the Syrian authority, headed by al-Assad, "belongs to the Iranian fold and can never return." "Whoever normalizes with this authority is normalizing with Iran and not with the Syrian people," Geagea said. Lawmakers from nine Arab countries including Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Libya, Egypt, the UAE, Oman and Lebanon made up Sunday's delegation.

Arrest of Hezbollah financier 'most senior catch' since 2017 - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/February 28/2023
The US seeks to extradite the alleged financier of Lebanese and Belgian citizenship.
The arrest of Mohammad Ibrahim Bazzi in Romania last week is an important step against Hezbollah. The US had wanted Bazzi since at least 2018, and his arrest in Bucharest is viewed as a success. Much remains to be done on the case, as the US will need to extradite the alleged financier of Lebanese and Belgian citizenship.
Tony Badran, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said that “Bazzi is the most senior catch in the top tier of Hezbollah’s BAC since the 2017 arrest and extradition of Kassem Tajeddine. Bazzi is a close associate of the heads of the BAC, namely Abdallah Safieddine and Adham Tabaja, with whom he coordinated his activities.” BAC stands for “Business Affairs Component,” Hezbollah’s organizational structure that runs its global network of businesses and enterprises, Badran noted in an email.
Of particular interest is the financier’s role in West Africa, particularly The Republic of the Gambia, a small country of 2.6 million people bordered by Senegal. “He was the most significant minority shareholder in Prime Bank in The Gambia, which allegedly was a critical money-laundering instrument for Hezbollah in West Africa. Prime Bank was a subsidiary of the Lebanese-Canadian Bank, the infamous money-laundering machine in Lebanon,” Badran noted. Numerous articles in the media focusing on Africa and the Gambia have alleged massive corruption linked to the West African country.
That bank was highlighted over the years in various reports as being at the center of money laundering and a “hub of Hezbollah,” according to The New York Times. In a conversation with Matthew Levitt at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in March 2022, the bank’s role was highlighted.
Danny Glaser, who served as Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes in the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence at the US Treasury Department from 2011-2017, told Levitt that the “Lebanese Canadian bank was an important node within a broader global money laundering and money moving system that Hezbollah had established. Hezbollah would move money from all over the world. But in order to use that money effectively to advance their aims within the Middle East and within Lebanon and Syria, they needed to move that money back to Lebanon so that they can use it.” In Gambia, Bazzi had ties to Yahya Jammeh, the leader of the country from the mid-1990s to 2017. “Jammeh appointed Bazzi as The Gambia’s honorary Consul to Lebanon – a diplomatic cover that Hezbollah has exploited. His close association with Jammeh allegedly also included organizing and financing major weapons shipments from Iran,” Badran noted.
A 2010 article at Reuters asserted that “crates of weapons including rocket launchers and mortars seized in Nigeria this week were loaded in Iran by a local trader,” and apparently had connections to the Gambia as well. This was only the tip of the iceberg of what was going on in the Gambia in terms of corruption prior to 2017, according to reports.
Jammeh was forced to leave power after losing elections in 2017, after 22 years in power. “If Jammeh’s political and mercenary network kept him in power, it was his links to the business world that enabled much of his corruption. His office allowed foreign companies to bypass tender procedures, handing them government contracts and opening the country’s public purse for pillaging,” a report at the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project noted in 2019.
How long will Bazzi's extradition take?
A KEY QUESTION for US authorities will be how long the extradition of Bazzi will take. Badran notes that in the case of “Kassem Tajeddine, for example, it was very quick. In other cases, such as that of Ali Fayad, who was arrested in the Czech Republic in 2014, the extradition was denied as Hezbollah kidnapped Czech citizens in Lebanon in 2015, who they held hostage to pressure the Czechs.”
In 2016, the US embassy in Prague criticized a decision by the Czech Republic’s justice minister to not extradite Fayad. In the case of Tajeddine, he pleaded guilty to money-laundering charges in 2019 and was sentenced to five years in prison.
However, NBC noted in 2020 that “the Justice Department is appealing a federal judge’s decision to grant an early release to a Lebanese man labeled by US authorities as a Hezbollah financier, arguing he does not qualify to be freed on ‘compassionate grounds’ due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to court documents.”
This means that even if Bazzi is extradited, it’s not clear for how long he might end up in prison, even if the government wins its case against him. What is important in the case is that it once again sheds light on the US government’s continuing attempts to go after the financial web that underpins Hezbollah operations. Media in the Middle East have highlighted this case as the arrest of a “key” financier.
The role of Bazzi in West Africa has been highlighted for more than a decade and a half. The Lebanese Hezbollah select worldwide activity map that Levitt pioneered has several references to Bazzi and the Gambia. Writing in 2018 in a piece for the AJC, Levitt noted that “efforts to peel away at the onion that is the Hezbollah criminal enterprise, and particularly the BAC, continue.
“Most recently, on May 17, 2018, the US Treasury designated Hezbollah However, NBC noted in 2020 that “the Justice Department is appealing a federal judge’s decision to grant an early release to a Lebanese man labeled by US authorities as a Hezbollah financier, arguing he does not qualify to be freed on ‘compassionate grounds’ due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to court documents.”
This means that even if Bazzi is extradited, it’s not clear for how long he might end up in prison, even if the government wins its case against him. What is important in the case is that it once again sheds light on the US government’s continuing attempts to go after the financial web that underpins Hezbollah operations. Media in the Middle East have highlighted this case as the arrest of a “key” financier.
The role of Bazzi in West Africa has been highlighted for more than a decade and a half. The Lebanese Hezbollah select worldwide activity map that Levitt pioneered has several references to Bazzi and the Gambia. Writing in 2018 in a piece for the AJC, Levitt noted that “efforts to peel away at the onion that is the Hezbollah criminal enterprise, and particularly the BAC, continue.
“Most recently, on May 17, 2018, the US Treasury designated Hezbollah However, NBC noted in 2020 that “the Justice Department is appealing a federal judge’s decision to grant an early release to a Lebanese man labeled by US authorities as a Hezbollah financier, arguing he does not qualify to be freed on ‘compassionate grounds’ due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to court documents.”
This means that even if Bazzi is extradited, it’s not clear for how long he might end up in prison, even if the government wins its case against him. What is important in the case is that it once again sheds light on the US government’s continuing attempts to go after the financial web that underpins Hezbollah operations. Media in the Middle East have highlighted this case as the arrest of a “key” financier.
The role of Bazzi in West Africa has been highlighted for more than a decade and a half. The Lebanese Hezbollah select worldwide activity map that Levitt pioneered has several references to Bazzi and the Gambia. Writing in 2018 in a piece for the AJC, Levitt noted that “efforts to peel away at the onion that is the Hezbollah criminal enterprise, and particularly the BAC, continue.
“Most recently, on May 17, 2018, the US Treasury designated Hezbollah financier and close [Adham] Tabaja associate Mohammad Ibrahim Bazzi and five companies he owns or controls. According to information released by the Treasury Department, Bazzi has provided millions of dollars to Hezbollah from the businesses he operates in Belgium, Lebanon, Iraq, and several West African countries.” Tabaja had been designated back in 2015.
Overall, the Bazzi case appears to exemplify and symbolize the multilayered ways that Hezbollah operates, including how its financiers operate with numerous companies and how this has affected governments, like the former regime in the Gambia. For many years, this appeared to go under the radar. In other cases, expediency or other policies – such as the drive for the Iran deal – may have moved the spotlight off some of the nefarious activities of Hezbollah. The overall web of this group is so large that it appears in many cases that only one part of the Hezbollah elephant is being touched at a time. It remains to be seen if this case will lead to more revelations and whether extradition will go smoothly.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-732875?fbclid=IwAR0KUlHXn9ZyN02uYIE8mpAKrHG_TAO2S-7-w-t6kdLXGUhOkrnp3-JGlxg

تقرير مفصل من موقع ميمري يعري بالوقائع مخطط حزب الله الإستيطاني والإرهابي والتهجيري في جنوب لبنان متخفياً وراء منظمته البيئية المسماة اخضر بلا حدود
ن. موزيس: السكان المحليون في جنوب لبنان: حزب الله يستخدم المنظمات البيئية كغطاء لنشاطه بالقرب من الحدود الإسرائيلية اللبنانية
Locals In South Lebanon: Hizbullah Using Environmental Organization As Cover For Activity Near Israel-Lebanon Border
N. Mozes/MEMRI/February 27, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116178/n-mozes-memri-locals-in-south-lebanon-hizbullah-using-environmental-organization-as-cover-for-activity-near-israel-lebanon-border-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%81%d8%b5%d9%84-%d9%85%d9%86/
During the latter half of 2022, there were two incidents of clashes between Christian residents of Rmeish, a town in the Bint Jbeil area of South Lebanon, and activists of the Lebanese NGO Green Without Borders (GWB). One of the clashes involved gunfire.
GWB describes itself as an environmental organization whose mission is to protect and develop the forests and green areas in Lebanon. It is one of several civil society organizations established by Hizbullah that claim to dispense services to the Lebanese public, but in fact serve as fronts for Hizbullah’s military and financial activity. Some of the other organizations are Jihad Al-Binaa,[1] Al-Qard Al-Hassan,[2] and Waad Project,[3] which are all designated by the U.S. as having ties with terrorist elements.
Christian residents of Rmeish claim that GWB has illegally taken over their land by leasing it from a local who is a co-owner of the land but who signed the lease without their knowledge or consent. GWB, they say, now treats the land as its own, threatens them, and prevents them from tending their fields, thus depriving them of their livelihood. They assess that its aim is to cause the Christians of the area to leave so as to take over all their land. They also claim that the GWB activists are not involved in protecting the environment but are in fact Hizbullah operatives concerned with security operations, whose presence in the area threatens their safety. They harshly criticize the Lebanese army and authorities, who they claim permit Hizbullah to operate freely in the region.
These claims by the residents corroborate complaints made by Israel to UNIFIL and the UN Security Council in recent years, that GWB serves as a cover for Hizbullah activity on the border. Such activity contravenes Security Council Resolution 1701 from 2006, which prohibits Hizbullah presence in this area. Israel has even bombed GWB facilities near the town of Rmeish, which it suspected were being used to conduct hostile activity.
Although the Security Council did not accept Israel’s claim that GWB’s presence in the border area is a violation of Resolution 1701, it implicitly mentioned this NGO in Resolution 2650 from August 31, 2022. Concerned with UNIFIL’s mission, this resolution states that the Security Council regards “with concern the recent installation of containers along the Blue Line which restrict UNIFIL’s access to, or visibility of, the Blue Line.”[4]
Using an NGO as a front to consolidate its presence in the border area is not Hizbullah’s only method of challenging the authority of the Security Council, UNIFIL and the Lebanese government. In recent years there have been reports of multiple incidents in which Lebanese “civilians” prevented UNIFIL forces from fulfilling their mission.[5] The most recent of them, on December 14, 2022, resulted in the death of an Irish UNIFIL soldier. Although Hizbullah denied any connection to this incident, many in Lebanon hold it responsible.[6]
Hizbullah has dismissed the claims of the residents of Rmeish, insisting that GWB operates in accordance with the law and will continue to pursue its objectives. In other words, despite the friction with the locals, it seems that Hizbullah has no intention of halting the NGO’s activities in the border area. Moreover, Hizbullah accuses the Lebanese Forces party, a Christian party led by Samir Geagea that opposes Hizbullah, of inflating the reports about the clashes and exploiting them for political purposes.
This report presents details on the incidents that occurred in the town of Rmeish.
Green Without Borders Operated In Close Collaboration With Hizbullah
Based in Nabatieh in South Lebanon, the National Society for the Protection and Development of the Green Spaces, the Environment and Wildlife,” also known as Green Without Borders (GWB), was established on June 20, 2013. Its secretary general is Zuhair Nahle. According to its blog, its mission includes protecting Lebanon’s green spaces, locating and fighting forest fires, running nurseries, planting trees and cleaning forested areas, in collaboration with the state authorities, civil society and international organizations. The blog also states that GWB has signed a memorandum of understanding and cooperation with the Ministry of Agriculture, headed by Dr. Hussein Al-Hajj Hassan,[7] a member of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc, Hizbullah’s political wing in the Lebanese parliament.
GWB’s activity is concentrated in South Lebanon, particularly near the border with Israel. During the first years after its establishment it launched several projects, such as planting one million trees, and a project named “A Tree for Every Citizen.” In addition to planting trees, the NGO also sets up watchtowers and centers, ostensibly for detection of forest fires and other threats to the forests.[8] It is suspected that these towers and centers are used by Hizbullah to keep operatives in areas where their presence is prohibited by UN Resolution 1701 and to monitor the activity of the Israel Defense Forces.[9]
Hizbullah and GWB do not conceal the close cooperation between them. In December 2021, for example, it launched the “Green on the Border” initiative in collaboration with Hizbullah’s Rural Activities Administration.[10] On December 6, 2022, Hizbullah’s Al-Manar television channel reported that GWB and the Rural Activities Administration in the Jabal Amil region had launched GWB’s annual forestation initiative in the area. A member of the administration described the cooperation between Hizbullah and the NGO, explaining that the towns submit requests to the administration, which reviews them with GWB, after which GWB selects the most suitable trees for each area.[11]
Official In Rmeish Municipality: Hizbullah Is Trying To Turn The Town Into A Military Outpost
GWB’s activity in the border area worries only Israel but also local residents, especially the Christian population. As stated, during the second half of 2022 there were two clashes between GWB activists and locals in Rmeish, which has a Maronite Christian majority. These incidents shed light on the NGO’s activity in the area.
According to the head of the Rmeish town council, Milad Al-‘Alam, GWB first became active in the town in 2017, when a local who co-owns agricultural land in the area leased it to GWB without the knowledge or consent of the other owners. GWB built two offices on the land, and when the lease ran out it refused to leave.[12]
Locals claim that disagreements with GWB are a frequent occurrence. But an incident in July 2022 was unusual in that it involved gunfire. According to local sources, GWB confiscated timber that a local had cut down on his own land, and when it refused to give it back, locals gathered outside the organization’s offices. Armed members of Hizbullah then arrived on the scene and clashes ensued, during which shots were fired. The army was also called in and tried to settle the dispute. Town council head Al-‘Alam noted that, two days earlier, a similar incident had taken place, but was quickly resolved.[13] The town council issued a statement urging the state authorities to remove the “illegal” structures on the outskirts of the town. It also expressed harsh criticism of authorities for not fulfilling their obligations and enforcing the law.[14]
In early December 2022 another disagreement broke out after, according to locals, GWB erected temporary structures and started building a road and on their land without permission.[15] Greenhouses were torched and the army had to intervene.[16]
Path cleared by GWB through private land in Rmeish in preparation for paving a road (image: Almodon.com, December 17, 2022)
A statement from local residents, posted on the town council’s Facebook page, said that “the de facto powers,” i.e. Hizbullah, were threatening landowners and harming them by uprooting trees, clearing wide areas and using heavy construction machinery on their private land – and all this “in full view of the Lebanese Armed Forces, which operate in the region in accordance with Resolution 1701, and despite significant opposition from the residents.” The locals called on Lebanon’s political and religious leaders, starting with the Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, to take swift action to stop “the provocations and the aggression” against them and their property, to stop all the attacks that undermine coexistence and prevent additional escalation.[17] The locals also published documents which they claim prove their ownership of the land where GWB is active.[18]
According to Rmeish town priest Najib Al-‘Amil, Hizbullah has positions in the town, located behind army posts and one even adjacent to a UNIFIL position. He says that “a short while ago the NGO began cutting down old oak trees and planting carob trees instead, and we – the owners of the land – are prohibited from going there… I live in Qatmoun on the border; there is a Hizbullah position there. In the guise of protecting the environment, they have managed to pave roads and uproot trees. They have been working [there], especially recently. They sent people who spoke to the locals on behalf of Hizbullah, pressuring them to sign leases. [But] no one is likely to agree to it this time.”[19]
An unnamed town dignitary told the Saudi daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat that “the purpose of Hizbullah’s activity is to transform Rmeish into a military outpost for the organization. He added that Hizbullah operatives have been building a military road through the green areas around the town, to gain access to the border with Israel. “The residents of Rmeish will not allow this aggression toward their lands and property to continue, and will not let their safe town become a violent military area,” he said.[20]
The locals claim that the army did not heed their requests to prevent GWB from taking over their lands, but refused to intervene, on the grounds that the NGO had legally leased the land in question.[21]
According to the Lebanese website Daraj, a local saw Hizbullah bringing weapons into the area, which may be the reason for the locals’ anger.[22] Another report claims that GWB threatens locals who photograph its activities, and that it recently erected a new position, about 30 meters from the Blue Line.[23] Its activists travel armed, in vehicles without license plates, and they have fired at locals on several occasions.[24]
Yet another Lebanese website claims that Hizbullah increased its activity in the area following a decrease in local support for its Christian ally, the Free Patriotic Movement party, and a clear rise in support for the rival Christian party, Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces party, which opposes Hizbullah. The website speculates that Hizbullah is disrupting the lives of Christian in the border villages in an attempt to force them to abandon their land. To this end it blocks roads, dumps trash and rubble in residential and agricultural areas, and so on. It employs similar tactics against the Sunnis in the area, specifically in the border towns of Yarine and Marwahin.[25]
Christian Leaders: The State Is Helpless To Oppose Hizbullah
Not surprisingly, the Christian political and religious leadership that opposes Hizbullah took the side of the residents and harshly criticized the conduct of the security apparatuses and the state authorities in this affair. Following the clash in July 2022, the political bureau of the Kataeb Party (also known as the Phalanges), led by Samy Gemayel, condemned the “acts of intimidation by the ‘black shirts'[26] under the guise of environmental activities” in the Rmeish area and stated that the use of weapons against locals “is another example of Hizbullah’s intimidation and use of force to protect its interests.” The party called on the state institutions to end this threat to the citizens’ security.[27]
Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi also responded to the incidents. During Sunday service on July 31, 2022 he “expressed sorrow about the incident” that had occurred between “armed members of a certain party” [i.e., Hizbullah] and locals from Rmeish, and called on the security apparatuses to do their job and protect “our sons” so that they “feel they belong to a country that protects them… in accordance with Security Council Resolution 1701, which forbids the presence of any armed force in their area.”[28]
The Patriarch also responded to the clash in December. During Sunday services on December 18, he expressed sorrow about the harassment of town residents by “operatives of the de facto forces belonging to one of the parties in the region,” and again urged the security apparatuses to fulfil their role and protect the locals’ property, remove illegal structures and expel the “foreign elements” from the town.[29] On a separate occasion, he asserted that the attacks on the lands in Rmeish were unacceptable. The locals, he said, had appealed to the appropriate authorities but the latter professed helplessness to stop the attacks. In response to the locals’ questions, the authorities admitted that the attacks were illegal, but said that they were unable to enforce the law.[30]
In a statement it issued on December 17, the Bint Jbeil branch of Geagea’s Lebanese Forces party stated that all the Lebanese officials must recognize and understand the implications of these infractions, i.e., the infringement on the residents’ property, the uprooting of trees, the building of roads and the recurring threats to local residents and landowners by “partisan elements whose allegiance and objectives are known.” Among these objectives are “taking over [the locals’] ancestral land and changing the identity of the area by compelling them to relinquish their rights, in the absence of a deterring government that enforces the law and punishes the aggressors,” the party said. It warned against the implications of these developments, which could provoke “impulsive and unexpected responses,” and urged the security and judicial systems to do their job and to stop all the violations of the residents’ rights.[31]
Hizbullah: There Is No Dispute With The Locals; GWB Will Continue Its Activities In The Area
Following each of the clashes in 2022, Hizbullah attempted to restore calm and sent representatives to the area to speak with the locals. However, at the same time, Hizbullah and GWB insisted that the NGO would continue its activity in the area. Following the incident in July, a GWB source told the Lebanese online daily Al-Mudun that the altercation had occurred after GWB activists attempted to prevent locals from felling trees. The organization is working to protect the green spaces in the area and in other parts of South Lebanon, and is determined to prevent deforestation, he said.[32]
In an effort to alleviate the conflict a meeting was held between representatives of the Rmeish municipality, the Lebanese army and Hizbullah. According to the Al-Janoubia website, Hizbullah’s representatives conceded that their operatives had been out of line and promised to hold them accountable.[33] A similar meeting was held following the incident in December. According to Hizbullah and the news sites affiliated with it, the organization made efforts to defuse the situation and the locals appreciated the efforts. These sites also accused the Lebanese Forces party of attempting to escalate the situation.[34] Hizbullah’s Al-Ahed website reported that a delegation of local Hizbullah officials had met with municipal leaders, the head of the church, and representatives of the residents, and that the matter was settled immediately to the satisfaction of all sides. Al-Ahed added that the information disseminated about the affair on social media and by other media outlets was grossly exaggerated. The website quoted Rmeish town priest Najib Al-‘Amil as welcoming the visit of the Hizbullah delegation and saying that there had been no attack on the towns’ lands and that the entire incident was “meaningless.” According to the site, Al-‘Amil said that the people of Rmeish “welcome and encourage anyone who wants to defend the borders or plant trees,” and that the locals had agreed to maintain contact with Hizbullah in order to prevent such incidents in the future.[35]
Al-‘Amil, for his part, denied the Al-Ahed report and gave his own account of the incident: He arrived at the site of the incident and asked the GWB activists to stop what they were doing, but they refused and even threatened some of the locals present. To prevent a clash Al-‘Amil tried to pacify the locals and promised them he would try to resolve the crisis. In the meeting with the Hizbullah representatives, the latter said that the purpose of GWB’s activity was to defend the border. He assured them this was unnecessary, since the Lebanese army has a position in the area from which “it is possible to see all the way to Haifa,” and UNIFIL has a position in the area as well. He also told them that GWB had not planted a single tree in the area for six years; on the contrary, it had ignored the felling of trees and perhaps “even took part in selling the timber.” A Hizbullah representative promised that the GWB tent would be removed and that the landowners would be allowed access to their land; he also claimed that the GWB facilities had been built in coordination with the army.[36]
*N. Moses is a research fellow at MEMRI.
https://www.memri.org/reports/locals-south-lebanon-hizbullah-using-environmental-organization-cover-activity-near-israel
[1] Jihad Al-Binaa is a Hizbullah-owned construction company which has been designated by the U.S. as a Foreign Terrorist Organization since 2007. According to the U.S. Treasury, it is funded directly by Iran and is subordinate to Hizbullah’s Shura Council, headed by the organization’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah (Treasury.gov, February 20, 2007).
[2] Al-Qard Al-Hassan (AQAH) was established in 1982. Its website states that it provides small interest-free loans with convenient terms. According to a report it published in 2014, the association had given out 123,696 loans valued at $276,532 (Qardhasan.org, accessed May 2, 2019). The organization is suspected of being a cover for Hizbullah’s financial operations and was designated by the U.S. as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in July 2007 (Treasury.gov).
[3] Waad Project is a Hizbullah-owned construction company which was established after the war with Israel in 2006. The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on it in 2009 (Treasury.gov, June 1, 2009).
[4] Unscr.com/en/resolutions/2650, August 31, 2022. Deputy U.S. Representative to the United Nations Ambassador Richard Mills explained that the containers in question belonged to GWB, saying: “The proliferation of prefabricated containers placed by Green Without Borders obstructs UNIFIL’s access to the Blue Line and is heightening tensions in the area, further demonstrating that this so-called environmental group is acting on Hizballah’s behalf” (usun.usmission.gov, August 31, 2022).
[5] See for example MEMRI JTTM reports: Hizbullah Escalates Its Threats To UNIFIL Following UN Resolution To Extend Its Mandate For Another Year And Expand Its Authority, September 13, 2022;
Hizbullah Continues To Incite And Use South Lebanon Residents To Obstruct UNIFIL Activity, January 11, 2022.
[6] See MEMRI Report: Lebanese Journalists: Hizbullah Responsible For Death Of Irish UNIFIL Soldier, December 22, 2022.
[7] Akhdarbelahodod.blogspot.com, accessed January 26, 2023.
[8] Http://77.42.251.205, June 20, 2013.
[9] Idf.il, June 22, 2017.
[10] Alahednews.com.lb, December 4, 2021.
[11] Almanar.com.lb, December 6, 2022.
[12] Al-Nahhar (Lebanon), July 30, 2022.
[13] Al-Nahhar (Lebanon), July 30, 2022.
[14] Janoubia.com, July 30, 2022.
[15] Imlebanon.org, December 9, 2022.
[16] Almarkazia.com, December 19, 2022.
[17] Facebook.com/BaladietRmeich, December 17, 2022.
[18] Nidaalwatan.com, December 21, 2022.
[19] Sawtbeirut.com, December 22, 2022.
[20] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London) December 18, 2022.
[21] Nidaalwatan.com, December 21, 2022.
[22] Daraj.media, December 20, 2022.
[23] The Blue Line between Lebanon and Israel, delineated by the UN in 2000 following the withdrawal of the IDF forces from southern Lebanon, extends for 120 km.
[24] Sawtbeirut.com, December 22, 2022.
[25] Nidaalwatan.com, December 21, 2022.
[26] ‘The black shirts’ is a name for Hizbullah supporters, who tend to wear black to the organization’s rallies and other shows of support. For instance, on January 19, 2011, hundreds of black-clad Hizbullah activists held a show of force in Beirut and in other Lebanese cities following the publication of some of the findings of the committee that looked into the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri.
[27] Aliwaa.com.lb, August 2, 2022.
[28] Aljoumhouria.com, July 31, 2022.
[29] Al-Nahhar (Lebanon), December 18, 2022.
[30] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), December 28, 2022.
[31] Aliwaa.com.lb, December 19, 2022.
[32] Almodon.com, July 30, 2022.
[33] Janoubia.com, July 30, 2022.
[34] For example, the Pro-Hizbullah daily Al-Akhbar claimed that the Lebanese Forces party was trying to enflame the situation for political purposes. According to the daily, the area in question used to suffer from Israeli violations, drug smuggling and illegal deforestation, and GWB put an end to this. It also initiated a workshop on forestation in the area, which required building a road through an area part of which is pasture whose ownership is unclear, while another part is land whose ownership is in dispute. The Lebanese Forces party, claimed the daily, exploited this dispute to organize protests in the area and also set fire to a GWB tent. Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), December 19, 2022.
[35] Alahednews.com.lb, December 21, 2022.
[36] Facebook.com/HarakatAlArd, December 22, 2022.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 27-28/2023
Without Evidence, Iran Denies Reports It Enriched Uranium to Near Weapons-Grade
FDD/February 27, 2023
Latest Developments
Iran yesterday and today denied reports attributed to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by diplomatic sources that Tehran had enriched uranium to 84 percent purity — just short of weapons-grade levels of 90 percent — at the Fordow underground facility. A news website linked to the regime said on Thursday that Iran’s nuclear program is “completely peaceful” and described the allegations as an “inspector’s error” or “a deliberate action to create political atmospheres against Iran.” Today, Behrouz Kamalvandi, a spokesman for Iran’s civilian nuclear program, called the accusation a “conspiracy,” saying inspectors merely found “a particle of an atom that cannot be seen even under a microscope.”
Expert Analysis
“Washington must lead its partners in penalizing Iran and censuring the regime’s latest action at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting, which begins on March 6. Failing to act swiftly would suggest that the West will tolerate further enrichment advances, including Tehran potentially stockpiling atomic weapons-grade uranium.” — Andrea Stricker, Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program
Not an Accident
In light of Tehran’s long record of nuclear mendacity, Iran’s denials are not credible. It is unlikely that Iran’s enrichment levels would have accidentally fluctuated to 84 percent. As Olli Heinonen, a former deputy director general for safeguards at the IAEA, put it, “Such things do not happen accidentally. It takes some effort to modify a cascade to produce this level of enrichment.” Inspectors likely caught Tehran experimenting with higher enrichment levels approaching atomic weapons-grade, even if the higher enrichment happened in intermediate enrichment steps and did not accumulate as a stockpile.
Iran’s Atomic Advances
Since entering office in January 2021, the Biden administration has presided over numerous qualitative Iranian nuclear advances, as Tehran capitalized on reduced pressure and the West’s fruitless effort to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
In January 2021, Iran resumed 20 percent enrichment at Fordow for the first time since the JCPOA’s finalization. In April 2021, Tehran enriched uranium to 60 percent purity. The same year, Iran also produced uranium metal, a material used in nuclear weapon cores. Over the course of 2021 and 2022, Iran installed thousands of fast advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment. Iran is now weeks away from producing enough weapons-grade uranium for four atomic bombs.

Iranian girls being ‘deliberately poisoned’ to stop them going to school
Campbell MacDiarmid/Telegraph/February 27, 2023
A spate of illnesses among children are being caused by “deliberate poisoning” intended to shut girls’ schools, a senior Iranian official has said. Younes Panahi, Iran’s deputy health minister, told reporters that “certain individuals sought the closure of all schools, especially girls’ schools” and had deliberately poisoned pupils with “chemical compounds”, the Fars news agency reported. Mr Panahi did not give further details. But in recent months, Iranian media has reported that several hundred school girls have fallen ill at school, with many having detected a strange odour, sometimes described as smelling of fruit or tangerines. In the past week, 15 school girls were reported to have been hospitalised with poisoning symptoms in Qom, 100 miles south of Tehran. Meanwhile, the governor of Borujerd, in western Iran, announced that 82 pupils had been hospitalised with carbon monoxide poisoning. The incidents have all occurred at girls’ schools, with the first reported last November in Qom. A deeply conservative and religious city, Qom is home to Iran’s clergy and theological seminaries where most of the country’s leaders have studied. At least 14 schools in four cities have reported similar experiences, including Tehran and the north-western city of Ardabil, according to Etemad, the Iranian daily newspaper. One video shared online showed a row of ambulances parked outside a school while paramedics attend to young women, one of whom is lying on the ground. Another video shared by state news agencies showed angry parents confronting education officials to demand a response to the incidents. No one has publicly claimed responsibility for the incidents. The poisonings came months into a nationwide anti-government protest movement in which young women have played a prominent role. The demonstrations against Iran’s theocratic regime began last September when Mahsa Amini died in police custody after being held on suspicion of wearing “inappropriate attire”. Her death sparked widespread anger at public dress codes, with many young women protesting by appearing in public without their headscarves or waving them in the air. As the demonstrations grew to demand the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, authorities responded with a crackdown, executing four people on charges related to the protests. Human rights groups said that security forces have killed more than 500 people, while thousands more have been arrested.
The reported poisonings also come at a time when the Taliban in neighbouring Afghanistan continues to keep schools and universities closed to girls and women, effectively banning them from education.

Iran says UN nuclear watchdog chief to visit in ‘coming days’
AP/February 27, 2023
TEHRAN: Iran said Monday the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, will visit Tehran “in the coming days,” amid a row over uranium enrichment levels in the Islamic republic. The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency said earlier this month it was in discussions with Tehran after Bloomberg News reported that the watchdog’s inspectors in Iran had found uranium enriched to 84 percent purity. Iran denied the report, insisting it had not made any attempt to enrich uranium beyond 60 percent, well beyond the 3.67 percent threshold set out in an agreement reached with world powers in 2015. On Monday, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said Grossi would travel to Iran “in the coming days” following an official invitation from its director, Mohamamd Eslami. “In recent days, we have had constructive and promising discussions” with the IAEA delegation that was already in Iran to clear up any doubts about its nuclear program, AEOI spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said. “It is hoped that this trip will form the basis for greater cooperation and a clearer horizon between Iran and the IAEA,” he added. The latest visit by the IAEA inspectors comes amid deadlock in negotiations on reviving the 2015 deal that promised Iran relief from crippling economic sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear activities. The restrictions were intended to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapons capability, an ambition it has always denied. The US unilaterally withdrew from the deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, prompting Iran to suspend the implementation of its own commitments under the accord known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. Separately, a 24-year-old Spanish citizen has been released from prison in Iran after almost four months, Spain’s Foreign Ministry said. Ana Baneira was released Saturday, the ministry said, explaining that it waited to make the announcement until her plane took off from Iran. The reasons for her arrest and detention in early November were not made public. Baneira is a human rights activist who was arrested while allegedly taking part in protests in Tehran, according to Spanish national news agency EFE. A family spokesperson said that Baneira was visiting Iran on a vacation and that the trip was not related to human rights activism.

Hundreds protest newly proposed election law in Iraqi capital
AP/February 27, 2023
BAGHDAD: Hundreds of protesters took to the streets in Baghdad on Monday to denounce a draft elections law that would increase the size of the country’s electoral districts, potentially undermining independent candidates. The current legislation, under which the 2021 election was held, breaks up each of the country’s 18 provinces into several electoral districts. The law, which was a key demand of mass anti-government protests that kicked off in late 2019, was seen as giving independent candidates a better chance at winning. Last week, parliament debated the draft, which would return Iraq to having one electoral district per governorate. Independent lawmakers who objected to the proposal, walked out of the session, which ended early due to losing its quorum. The parliament was set to discuss the proposed law again in its session on Monday, but lawmakers voted to postpone the discussion until Saturday. The return to a single district per province is backed by the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Iran-backed parties that forms the majority bloc in the current parliament, and which brought Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani to power last year. Monday’s protests took place as heavy security forces surrounded the parliament and closed off Joumhouriya Bridge on the Tigris River that leads to the government areas of the heavily fortified Green Zone. Meanwhile, Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid said on Sunday that after overcoming the hardships of the past two decades, Iraq is ready to focus on improving everyday life for its people. Those hardships included years of resistance to foreign troops, violence between Sunnis and Shiites, and attacks by Daesh extremists who once controlled large areas, including Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul.

Russia 'Likely Concerned' Over 'Unexplained Explosions' In Important City, UK Says
Kate Nicholson/HuffPost UK/February 27, 2023
Moscow is “likely concerned” following a string of “unexplained explosions” heard in the now Russia-controlled city of Mariupol, according to UK intelligence. The ministry of defence (MoD) explained in its daily briefing shared on Twitter that the Ukrainian city – seized by Russian forces in May 2022, after a long and bloody siege – now appears to be under fire. Mariupol is in the Donetsk People’s Republic, in the south-east of Ukraine, a separatist state which was then illegally annexed by Russia in September. Now, the MoD says there have been at least 14 explosions heard around the city since February 21, including at an ammo cache at the airport, fuel depots and steel works which are used as a military base by Russia. Mariupol is at least 80 kilometres from the current frontline. The MoD said: “Russia will likely be concerned that unexplained explosions are occurring in a zone it had probably previously assessed as beyond the range of routine Ukrainian strike capabilities. “Although widely devastated earlier in the war, Mariupol is important to Russia because it is the largest city Russia captured in 2022 that it still controls and sits on a key logistics route.” Last May, Russian defence ministry Sergei Shoigu announced “complete liberation” of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, which was the last area of Ukrainian resistance. The Ukrainian fighters who had been standing firm reportedly surrendered, and were taken as Russian prisoners. At the time, it was a much-needed victory for Vladimir Putin, as his failure to seize the capital Kyiv within a matter of days, as initially promised, rocked morale in Russia and faith in the whole “special military operation”Similarly unexplained explosions were previously been heard in the Russian-controlled peninsula of Crimea, a Ukrainian area which was seized back in 2014. Although Ukraine did not openly take responsibility for the strikes, it was seen as a sign that the war dynamic was changing because the attacks were so far behind the frontline and Crimea is strategically important for Russia. These latest explosions have also been reported near the one-year anniversary of the war, February 24. Russia launched a symbolic new offensive to mark the occasion last week, particularly around the Ukrainian mining city of Vuhledar. Ukrainian military has since released drone footage which claims to show Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles being blown up by mines or hit by Ukrainian air strikes on their way to the mining city. The city Bakhmut has also been a central battleground in recent months, with Russian forces surrounding it since July. Last week, the MoD also warned that Russia could claim a victory in Bakhmut, in the frontline Donetsk region to the east, “regardless of reality”.

An 'elite' Russian unit is being weakened by severe front-line losses, and the replacements appear to be making things worse, Western intel says
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/February 27/2023
Russia's 155th Naval Infantry Brigade has suffered heavy losses while fighting in Ukraine.
The 155th was considered to be an "elite" unit, but has been degraded, Western intelligence says.
It's the latest high-profile Russian unit to see a high number of causalities on the battlefield.
An "elite" Russian military unit may not be as tough as it once was because its top troops are suffering heavy losses on the battlefield and getting replaced by inexperienced fighters likely only further degrading its capability, Western intelligence says.
Elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, considered a prestigious infantry unit in the Russian armed forces, have been at the front of some of Moscow's most "costly offensives" during its full-scale war in Ukraine, Britain's defense ministry shared in a Sunday intelligence update. In the update, the ministry shared satellite imagery from February 9 that purportedly showed 10 destroyed Russian armored vehicles traveling near the eastern Ukrainian city of Vuhledar, one of several fronts where Moscow's troops appear to be pursuing advances. Britain said the destroyed armor was "likely" part of the 155th, which has not been deployed as one large formation but rather as individual units assigned to various ground forces. The unit has been forced to undertake "some of the toughest tactical missions in the war and has suffered extremely high casualties," the intelligence update said. Russian forces near Vuhledar mainly consist of fighters from the 155th, and a majority of these are newly mobilized soldiers. A Ukrainian official previously said the 155th's heavy losses will force the brigade to restaff for a third time, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
"The supposedly enhanced capability of NI brigades has now almost certainly been significantly degraded because it has been backfilled with inexperienced mobilized personnel," Britain's defense ministry said on Sunday.
Replacements for units with high attrition rates have not been bringing "a significant enhancement in terms of the training of those forces," a senior US defense official said in January. "Ill-equipped, ill-trained, rushed to the battlefield" is how the official described these troops.
Britain's defense ministry said in its Sunday update that this lack of experience among new troops is "almost certainly" becoming a burden on military leadership, which has a tendency to micromanage, curbing Moscow's capabilities by limiting this unit's operational agility. The 155th is not the only Russian unit considered elite that has suffered severe setbacks and losses in Ukraine. In the early weeks of the war, an elite airborne force, called the VDV, took heavy losses as Moscow failed to capture Kyiv in what it thought was going to be a quick victory. Months later, it was the GRU's 3rd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade that suffered scores of causalities fighting in the eastern city of Lyman. Russia's 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, meanwhile, endured so many losses that it is considered to be wiped out; it will likely take years to rebuild. And the 1st Guards Tank Army (1 GTA) has repeatedly been beaten in battle by Ukrainian forces. Western intelligence estimates that Russian forces may have suffered as many as 200,000 casualties while fighting in Ukraine, with up to 60,000 troops dead. The figure includes both Russia's regular military and also the notorious Kremlin-linked Wagner Group, which has sent tens of thousands of fighters — including convicts — to the front lines.

India failed in its mission to stop G20 countries from referring to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a 'war'
Sophia Ankel/Business Insider/Mon, February 27, 2023
India asked G20 members not to label Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a "war" in meetings last week. But India appears to have failed its mission, after a joint press release called the attack "a war." India has not imposed sanctions on Russia and is still buying Russian oil. India appears to have failed in its mission to stop G20 countries from calling Russia's invasion of Ukraine a "war." While hosting financial ministers of the Group of 20 in Bengaluru last week, Indian delegates tried to get members to call the Ukraine war a "challenge" or a "crisis" instead, multiple reports said. Russia, which is a member of the G20 and sent a delegation to the meetings, has previously discouraged the use of the word "war" to refer to its military action in Ukraine. To sway public opinion, the country has been calling the war in Ukraine a "special military operation." However, a press release published jointly by the G20 countries on Saturday describes the attack on Ukraine as "a war.""Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed that it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy," the summary says. As the war in Ukraine enters its second year, India refuses to assign blame for the violence and has solidified ties with Russia. It is still economically supporting the country, has refused to impose any sanctions, and is buying Russian oil and natural gas. In September last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and called their countries' friendship "unbreakable."
According to a Reuters report published last week, an Indian official at the summit said that the country "is not keen to discuss or back any additional sanctions on Russia during the G20.""The existing sanctions on Russia have had a negative impact on the world," the official, who was not named, told Reuters.

Putin's £274m spy plane blown up by Belarusian partisans
Nataliya Vasilyeva/The Telegraph/February 27, 2023T
A Russian spy plane worth £274 million has been severely damaged by partisans in Belarus.
The A-50 aircraft, which is used to identify and track targets for military operations, was rendered non-operational after local resistance members used drones to drop explosives on it, according to reports. The Belarusian regime has let its airfields and land be used by Moscow to stage attacks on Ukraine. It comes as China hailed an "all-weather and comprehensive" strategic partnership with Belarus on Monday, the day before a state visit by President Alexander Lukashenko to Beijing. The damaged A-50 had reportedly flown six missions into Ukraine on behalf of the Putin regime. Bypol, a group of Belarusian security officials who resigned in protest against the brutal crushing of anti-regime protests in 2020, claimed the attack.Aliaksandr Azarau, the group’s chief, said it had taken months to prepare and those responsible had already left the country. The bombing reportedly damaged the plane’s front and central parts. “The damage is severe so the plane is not going to go anywhere now,” Bypol said. “Belarusian partisans are consistent in their striving to drive nazis away from their land.”Franak Viacorka, a close adviser to opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, said the attack was the most important on Belarusian soil since the war in Ukraine began. "This is the most successful diversion since the beginning of 2022," he wrote on Twitter. The Russian air force operates just nine similar planes to the one damaged by partisans. Belarus’s opposition in exile has condemned Mr Lukashenko, who won a 2020 election widely seen as rigged, for backing Vladimir Putin’s invasion and has urged Belarusians to stop Russia using the country as a staging ground for attacks. For several months, train traffic across Belarus faced disruptions as ordinary Belarusians sabotaged railway infrastructure to halt trains carrying Russian weaponry and equipment. Several people have been arrested and sentenced to lengthy prison terms for alleged “terrorist” attacks. On Monday Belarus’s defence ministry denied reports of any incidents at the airfield. A Kremlin spokesman said he had “nothing to say” on the reports. At least two Russian pro-war correspondents quoted sources in Belarus confirming the bombing on Sunday. Semyon Pegov said on Monday that the airfield used by the Russian air force was attacked by drones in a surprise assault similar to that on a Russian base in Engels in December that killed three people.

Jordan, Bahrain sign deal to boost private sector cooperation
Arab News/February 27, 2023
AMMAN: Jordan and Bahrain signed an agreement on Monday to boost trade and increase knowledge exchanges within the private sector, Jordan News Agency reported. The deal, between Jordan Enterprise Development Corp. and Export Bahrain, laid the groundwork for greater collaboration between the two organizations and would help to improve relationships between small- and medium-sized enterprises, the report said. It was finalized on the sidelines of the Integrated Industrial Partnership for Sustainable Economic Development’s higher committee meeting in Amman. Jordan’s Industry Minister Yousef Shamali emphasized the significance of the meeting, which also included the signing of $2 billion worth of investment agreements in sectors such as food and medicine security and electric vehicles. He added that the committee, which comprises Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE, had helped to boost Arab cooperation and integration in many fields. Bahrain’s Minister of Industry and Commerce Abdulla bin Adel Fakhro said it was important to take action to increase economic cooperation and expand the four-nation partnership.

Global outrage over killing of Palestinian civilians by Israel
Arab News/February 27, 2023
RAMALLAH: France, Germany and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation on Monday expressed grave concern at the violence against Palestinian civilians by Israeli troops and settlers. The lack of punishment for Israel’s actions had encouraged it to continue carrying out “crimes” in Palestine, OIC Secretary-General Hissein Brahim Taha said. France condemned the attacks by settlers in the occupied West Bank and said “violence against Palestinian civilians is unacceptable.”Germany said there was an urgent need to ensure the tense situation in the region was not further inflamed. Taha made his comments during an extraordinary meeting of the OIC’s executive committee in Jeddah, called to discuss the recent escalation of violence in the West Bank city of Nablus and throughout Palestine that has claimed 11 Palestinian lives and seen dozens more injured. “Israel continues to commit crimes and perpetuates its colonial settlement regime on Palestinian land in the presence of the international community,” he said. His statement came as Palestinians counted the cost of the violence and arson attacks by Israeli settlers. Dozens of homes and cars were set ablaze in the northern town of Huwara after a day of Israeli-Palestinian talks in Jordan aimed at quelling a surge in violence in the Palestinian territory. More than 350 Palestinians were injured, most suffering from tear gas inhalation, the Palestinian Red Crescent Society said. The Palestinian Health Ministry said Sameh Aqtash, 37, was shot dead during an attack by Israeli forces and settlers on the nearby village of Za’atara. Wajeh Odeh, a member of Huwara municipality, said 30 houses were burned and damaged while more than 100 cars were torched. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said he held the Israeli government responsible for “the terrorist acts carried out by settlers under the protection of the occupation forces.”France’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that there was a risk that the situation in the West Bank could “deteriorate out of control” and called on all parties “to avoid fueling the violence and to contribute to de-escalation.”
It added that the Israeli government “as part of its responsibility as an occupying power” needed to protect Palestinian civilians and find the perpetrators of the arson attacks. A spokesperson for Germany’s Foreign Ministry said Berlin welcomed the talks in Jordan and it was “urgent that agreements to de-escalate the situation are respected, and that everyone now works to prevent the already very tense situation from becoming further inflamed.” Sunday’s incident has sent a wave of shock, anxiety and terror among the villagers. Ghassan Daglas, an official in charge of the settlement affairs in the northern West Bank, told Arab News that the settlers’ rampage in Huwara and other areas "is very dangerous.” Daglas described the onslaught as a “tsunami,” adding that the situation “is difficult, but the citizens’ morale is high.”He said that 295 attacks were monitored in the towns of Huwara, Za’tara, Asira Al-Qibliya and Burin in the Nablus region. He said the 17 homes and a vast number of cars were burned in addition to severe damage to the streets and roadsides, as well as shops. Taysir Nasrallah, a member of the Fatah Revolutionary Council in Nablus, told Arab News that the Israeli army and the settlers acted in tandem while attacking the Palestinians. “What the Israeli military cannot do is being done by the settlers.”

Palestinian gunman critically wounds Israeli in new violence
MAJDI MOHAMMED and ILAN BEN ZION/HAWARA, West Bank (AP)/February 27, 2023
A Palestinian gunman opened fire on Monday in the West Bank, critically wounding an Israeli man as a new wave of fighting showed no signs of slowing. The shooting occurred a day after two Israelis were killed by a Palestinian gunman in the northern West Bank, triggering a rampage by Israeli settlers through a Palestinian town that torched dozens of cars and homes. The Israeli rescue service Mada said Monday's shooting took place at a junction near the Palestinian town of Jericho. They said a 25-year-old man was in critical condition and undergoing CPR as he was rushed to a hospital.
Police said they were searching for the suspect, who escaped in a car.
Earlier, Israel sent hundreds more troops to the northern West Bank following Sunday's violence, in which two Israelis were killed and settlers rampaged through a Palestinian town, torching homes and vehicles in the worst such violence in decades.
The responses to the rampage laid bare some rifts in Israel's new right-wing government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appealing for calm while a member of his ruling coalition praised the rampage as deterrence against Palestinian attacks.
The events also underscored the limitations of the traditional U.S. approach to the long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Washington has been trying to prevent escalation while staying away from the politically costly task of pushing for a resolution of the core disputes.
As the violence raged in the West Bank, such an attempt at conflict management was taking place Sunday in Jordan, with the U.S. bringing together Israeli and Palestinian officials to work out a plan for de-escalation.
Sunday's events kicked off when a Palestinian gunman shot and killed brothers Hillel and Yagel Yaniv, ages 21 and 19, from the Jewish settlement of Har Bracha, in a shooting ambush in the Palestinian town of Hawara in the northern West Bank. The gunman fled.
Following the shooting, groups of settlers rampaged along the main thoroughfare in Hawara, which is used by both Palestinians and Israeli settlers. In one video, a crowd of settlers stood in prayer as they stared at a building in flames.
Late Sunday, a 37-year-old Palestinian was shot and killed by Israeli fire, two Palestinians were shot and wounded and another was beaten with an iron bar, Palestinian health officials said. Some 95 Palestinians were being treated for tear gas inhalation, according to medics.
On Monday morning, the Hawara thoroughfare was lined with rows of burned-out cars and smoke-blackened buildings. Normally bustling shops remained shuttered. Palestinian media said some 30 homes and cars were torched.
Sultan Farouk Abu Sris, a shop owner in Hawara, said he briefly went outside and saw scores of settlers setting containers and a home on fire. “They didn’t leave anything. They even threw tear gas bombs,” he said. “It’s destruction. They came bearing hatred.”
At the scene of the shooting, Defense Minister Yoav Galant told reporters that Israel “cannot allow a situation in which citizens take the law into their hands,” but stopped short of outright condemning the violence. “I ask everyone to heed the law and especially to trust in the army and security forces,” he said
The Yaniv brothers were laid to rest in Jerusalem on Monday.
Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, an Israeli military spokesman, described the situation as “a tense quiet.” He said the army deployed hundreds of additional troops to the area with the aim of de-escalation. Two battalions were sent late Sunday and a third on Monday, with several hundred soldiers each.
The army has not caught the Palestinian gunman. Israeli police spokesman Dean Elsdunne said eight Israelis were detained in connection with Sunday’s rioting, and that six had already been released. Israeli troops also began removing settlers from a previously evacuated settlement outpost near the West Bank city of Nablus. Several settlers had camped there following Sunday's deadly shooting, Israel's public broadcaster Kan reported.
Speaking at a settlement outpost reoccupied by Jewish settlers after Sunday’s shooting, the firebrand Public Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, the leader of the Jewish Power party, called for a “real war on terrorism" and legalizing the outpost, which troops were once again clearing. “We must crush our enemies," he said. As for the settler violence, he added: “I understand the hard feelings, but this isn’t the way, we can’t take the law into our hands.
Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog urged settlers not to engage in vigilante actions. Merav Michaeli of the opposition Labor Party condemned the rampage as “a pogrom by armed militias” of West Bank settlers. In the ruling coalition, some fanned the flames.
Tzvika Foghel, a lawmaker from Ben-Gvir's party, said the rampage would help deter Palestinian attacks. “I see the result in a very good light,” he told Army Radio when asked about what the interviewer referred to as a pogrom. Sunday’s violence has drawn condemnation from the international community. U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said the shooting attack and the rampage “underscore the imperative to immediately de-escalate tensions in words and deeds.”
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said he held the Israeli government responsible for what he called “the terrorist acts carried out by settlers under the protection of the occupation forces tonight.”
The violence erupted shortly after the Jordanian government hosted talks at the Red Sea resort of Aqaba aimed at de-escalating tensions ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
The Palestinians claim the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza Strip — areas captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war — for a future state. Some 700,000 Israeli settlers live in the West Bank and east Jerusalem. The international community overwhelmingly considers Israel's settlements as illegal and obstacles to peace. So far this year, 62 Palestinians, about half of them affiliated with armed groups, have been killed by Israeli troops and civilians. In the same period, 14 Israelis have been killed in Palestinian attacks.
Last year was the deadliest for the Palestinians in the West Bank and east Jerusalem since 2004, according to figures by the Israeli rights group B’Tselem. Nearly 150 Palestinians were killed in those areas, Some 30 people on the Israeli side were killed in Palestinian attacks.
The West Bank is home to a number of hard-line settlements — several of them in the immediate vicinity of Hawara — whose residents frequently vandalize Palestinians land and property.
*Ben Zion reported from Jerusalem.

Ultra-conservative Israeli minister quits, will back Netanyahu in parliament
Reuters/February 28, 2023
JERUSALEM: An ultra-conservative Jewish politician on Monday said he was resigning from his role in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government after failing to advance his agenda, but that he would still support the coalition in parliament. Avi Maoz, whose Noam party had one of the Knesset’s 120 seats, was made a deputy minister in Netanyahu’s office as part of the coalition sworn in on Dec. 29, with responsibilities for encouraging stringent observance of Jewish law in the country. His inclusion shook Israel’s once-dominant secular liberals, who have been holding weekly mass-demonstrations against reforms sought by Netanyahu to curb the power of the Supreme Court. “To my amazement, I discovered that there is no serious intent to implement the coalition agreement regarding the administration of national Jewish identity,” Maoz said in a resignation letter circulated to Israeli media. “I will fulfil my duty as a regular Knesset member in the coalition,” he added. Netanyahu commands a 64-seat parliamentary majority. But cracks have appeared in the support of his powerful far-right partners, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. Both chafed at Netanyahu envoys’ undertaking, at a Jordania-hosted security meeting with Palestinians on Sunday, to hold off on any new announcements regarding Jewish settlement in the occupied West Bank in the coming months.

Israeli minister praises settlers who torched Palestinian town
The Telegraph/Mon, February 27, 2023
Israel sent hundreds more troops to the occupied West Bank on Monday, a day after a Palestinian gunman killed two Israelis and settlers rampaged through a Palestinian town, torching homes and vehicles in the worst such violence in decades.
The responses to the rampage laid bare some rifts in Israel’s new Right-wing government, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appealing for calm while a member of his ruling coalition praised the rampage as deterrence against Palestinian attacks.
The events also underscored the limitations of the traditional US approach to the long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Washington has been trying to prevent escalation while staying away from the politically costly task of pushing for a resolution of the core disputes.
As the violence raged in the West Bank, such an attempt at conflict management was taking place on Sunday in Jordan, with the US bringing together Israeli and Palestinian officials to work out a plan for de-escalation.
Sunday’s events kicked off when a Palestinian gunman shot and killed brothers Hillel and Yagel Yaniv, ages 21 and 19, from the Jewish settlement of Har Bracha, in a shooting ambush in the Palestinian town of Hawara in the northern West Bank. The gunman fled.
Following the shooting, groups of settlers rampaged along the main thoroughfare in Hawara, which is used by both Palestinians and Israeli settlers. In one video, a crowd of settlers stood in prayer as they stared at a building in flames.
Merav Michaeli, the Israeli Labor Party leader, condemned the rampage as “a pogrom by armed militias” of West Bank settlers.
Late on Sunday, a 37-year-old Palestinian was shot and killed by Israeli fire, two Palestinians were shot and wounded and another was beaten with an iron bar, Palestinian health officials said. Some 95 Palestinians were being treated for tear gas inhalation, according to medics.
On Monday morning, the Hawara thoroughfare was lined with rows of burned-out cars and smoke-blackened buildings. Normally bustling shops remained shuttered. Palestinian media said some 30 homes and cars had been torched.
At the scene of the shooting, Yoav Galant, the defence minister, told reporters that Israel “cannot allow a situation in which citizens take the law into their hands,” but stopped short of outright condemning the violence. “I ask everyone to heed the law and especially to trust in the army and security forces,” he said
The Yaniv brothers were to be laid to rest in Jerusalem on Monday.
Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, an Israeli military spokesman, described the situation as having reached “a tense quiet”. He said the army deployed hundreds of additional troops to the area with the aim of de-escalation. Two battalions were sent late on Sunday and a third on Monday, with several hundred soldiers each.
The army has not caught the Palestinian gunman. Dean Elsdunne, an Israeli police spokesman, said eight Israelis were detained in connection with Sunday’s rioting, and that six had already been released. Israeli troops also began removing settlers from a previously evacuated settlement outpost near the West Bank city of Nablus. Several settlers had camped there following Sunday’s deadly shooting, Israel’s public broadcaster Kan reported.
Speaking at a settlement outpost reoccupied by Jewish settlers after Sunday’s shooting, the firebrand politician Itamar Ben-Gvir, the public security minister and leader of the Jewish Power party, called for a “real war on terrorism” and legalising the outpost, which troops were once again clearing.
“We must crush our enemies,” he said in response to the Palestinian attack. As for the settler violence, he added: “I understand the hard feelings, but this isn’t the way, we can’t take the law into our hands.”
While Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog urged settlers not to engage in vigilante actions, other members of the ruling coalition fanned the flames.
Tzvika Foghel, a lawmaker from the ultra-nationalist Jewish Power party, said the rampage would help deter Palestinian attacks. “I see the result in a very good light,” he told Army Radio when asked about what the interviewer referred to as a pogrom.
Sunday’s violence has drawn condemnation from the international community. Ned Price, the US State Department spokesman, said the shooting attack and the rampage “underscore the imperative to immediately de-escalate tensions in words and deeds”.
Mahmoud Abbas, Palestine’s president, said he held the Israeli government responsible for what he called “the terrorist acts carried out by settlers under the protection of the occupation forces tonight.”
The violence erupted shortly after the Jordanian government hosted talks at the Red Sea resort of Aqaba aimed at minimising tensions ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
The Palestinians claim the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza Strip – areas captured by Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War – for a future state. Some 700,000 Israeli settlers live in the West Bank and east Jerusalem. The international community overwhelmingly considers Israel’s settlements as illegal and obstacles to peace. So far this year, 62 Palestinians, about half of them affiliated with armed groups, have been killed by Israeli troops and civilians. In the same period, 14 Israelis have been killed in Palestinian attacks.
Last year was the deadliest for the Palestinians in the West Bank and east Jerusalem since 2004, according to figures by the Israeli rights group B’Tselem. Nearly 150 Palestinians were killed in those areas, Some 30 people on the Israeli side were killed in Palestinian attacks.
The West Bank is home to a number of hardline settlements — several of them in the immediate vicinity of Hawara — whose residents are frequently claimed to have vandalised Palestinians land and property.

Analysis-Netanyahu's balancing act got harder after post-summit violence
JERUSALEM (Reuters)/Maayan Lubell/February 27, 2023
The U.S.-brokered summit has barely ended with pledges to calm violence and slow Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank when Palestinian homes were set ablaze by Jewish settlers in retaliation to a deadly Palestinian gun ambush.
Hopes for a calming effect of the meeting hosted by Jordan in the Red Sea port of Aqaba and attended by high-level Israeli and Palestinian security officials, faded further when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disavowed any notion of a halt to settlement-building.
"The Aqaba agreement was born dead," read a headline in the largest Palestinian daily, Al-Quds, after footage on social media showed young settlers praying while they watched fires in near Palestinian village Hawara, just hours after two brothers from a nearby settlement were shot dead in their car there.
On Monday, another suspected Palestinian shooting attack in the West Bank critically wounded one person, emergency services said. The events cast doubt on Netanyahu's ability to walk a diplomatic tightrope between Washington - pushing for a lasting compromise - and his own cabinet that includes hard-line settlers demanding tough action against Palestinian attacks. Less than a month ago, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Jerusalem reaffirming U.S. support for a two-state solution: independence for the Palestinians in East Jerusalem, Gaza and the West Bank, which they say would be incompatible with Israeli settlements. If Netanyahu now let violence spiral out of control it would be another, even bigger source of friction with the White House, said Amotz Asa-El, research fellow at the Shalom Hartman research institute. "If anything like what happened last night resumes and gives Washington reason to suspect that Netanyahu is impotent in handling it, they will talk to him very plainly", said Asa-El, adding that the White House has put pressure Israeli leaders before. "It's now in his interest to show that he is clamping down on this kind of settler violence."The U.S. State Department spokesperson condemned both the killing of two Israelis and the settler rampage, in which one Palestinian was killed and more than 100 wounded. The spokesperson stressed "the imperative to immediately de-escalate tensions in words and deeds". But shortly after a U.S. State Department joint communique said Israel had committed to stop approving new settlement units for four months, Netanyahu said that settlement construction would go on as planned. "There is not and will not be any freeze," he tweeted in an apparent nod to his hard-line partners.
PRO-SETTLER PARTIES
Palestinians, alarmed since Israel's Nov. 1 election, when Netanyahu started building his coalition government with ultra-nationalist pro-settler parties Jewish Power and Religious Zionism, look to Washington to rein them in. "The U.S administration, which fosters this government, must end all these crimes," said the spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister who heads Jewish Power, held a special faction meeting at a settler outpost slated for eviction because it was built without government permit. "The terrorists should be crushed and it is time to go back to targeted killings and to eliminate the leaders of the inciting terrorist organizations," said Ben-Gvir, while calling on Israelis not to "take the law into their own hands."Palestinian political analyst George Giacaman predicted more violence. "The main battle will be with settlers," he said. To be effective, the Aqaba agreements would need a follow-up, said Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. envoy to Israel and now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank. Sunday's events, he said, showed that there was "a risk that the pace of deterioration will outstrip the diplomatic efforts to reverse it". However, Netanyahu's manoeuvring room appears to be shrinking - Ben-Gvir is already issuing political threats, while Religious Zionism leader and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich last week consolidated his civil powers in the West Bank. So much so, that with Netanyahu's new coalition just eight weeks old, Israeli political commentators already are asking whether the veteran politician can hold it together. "One can see the Aqaba summit as a parable: the Americans announce that Israel has promised to freeze settlement construction, which Netanyahu then denies. At those exact moments, the Jewish Power and Religious Zionism ministers attack the summit and say it is non-binding," wrote Moran Azulay, of Israel's Ynet news site. "On the eve of the election Netanyahu was pondering the legacy he will have when he is reelected prime minister. At the moment it appears to be chaos and disintegration."

Israel beefs up troops after unprecedented settler rampage
Associated Press/February 27, 2023
Israel sent hundreds more troops to the occupied West Bank on Monday, a day after a Palestinian gunman killed two Israelis and settlers rampaged through a Palestinian town, torching homes and vehicles in the worst such violence in decades.
The responses to the rampage laid bare some rifts in Israel's new right-wing government, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appealing for calm while a member of his ruling coalition praised the rampage as deterrence against Palestinian attacks.
The events also underscored the limitations of the traditional U.S. approach to the long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Washington has been trying to prevent escalation while staying away from the politically costly task of pushing for a resolution of the core disputes.
As the violence raged in the West Bank, such an attempt at conflict management was taking place Sunday in Jordan, with the U.S. bringing together Israeli and Palestinian officials to work out a plan for de-escalation.
Sunday's events kicked off when a Palestinian gunman shot and killed brothers Hillel and Yagel Yaniv, ages 21 and 19, from the Jewish settlement of Har Bracha, in a shooting ambush in the Palestinian town of Hawara in the northern West Bank. The gunman fled.
Following the shooting, groups of settlers rampaged along the main thoroughfare in Hawara, which is used by both Palestinians and Israeli settlers. In one video, a crowd of settlers stood in prayer as they stared at a building in flames.
Labor Party leader Merav Michaeli condemned the rampage as "a pogrom by armed militias" of West Bank settlers.
Late Sunday, a 37-year-old Palestinian was shot and killed by Israeli fire, two Palestinians were shot and wounded and another was beaten with an iron bar, Palestinian health officials said. Some 95 Palestinians were being treated for tear gas inhalation, according to medics.
On Monday morning, the Hawara thoroughfare was lined with rows of burned-out cars and smoke-blackened buildings. Normally bustling shops remained shuttered. Palestinian media said some 30 homes and cars were torched.
Sultan Farouk Abu Sris, a shop owner in Hawara, said he briefly went outside and saw scores of settlers setting containers and a home on fire. "They didn't leave anything. They even threw tear gas bombs," he said. "It's destruction. They came bearing hatred."
At the scene of the shooting, Defense Minister Yoav Galant told reporters that Israel "cannot allow a situation in which citizens take the law into their hands," but stopped short of outright condemning the violence. "I ask everyone to heed the law and especially to trust in the army and security forces," he said
The Yaniv brothers were to be laid to rest in Jerusalem on Monday.
Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, an Israeli military spokesman, described the situation as "a tense quiet." He said the army deployed hundreds of additional troops to the area with the aim of de-escalation. Two battalions were sent late Sunday and a third on Monday, with several hundred soldiers each.
The army has not caught the Palestinian gunman. Israeli police spokesman Dean Elsdunne said eight Israelis were detained in connection with Sunday's rioting, and that six had already been released. Israeli troops also began removing settlers from a previously evacuated settlement outpost near the West Bank city of Nablus. Several settlers had camped there following Sunday's deadly shooting, Israel's public broadcaster Kan reported.
Speaking at a settlement outpost reoccupied by Jewish settlers after Sunday's shooting, the firebrand Public Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, the leader of the Jewish Power party, called for a "real war on terrorism" and legalizing the outpost, which troops were once again clearing. "We must crush our enemies," he said in response to the Palestinian attack. As for the settler violence, he added: "I understand the hard feelings, but this isn't the way, we can't take the law into our hands." While Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog urged settlers not to engage in vigilante actions, other members of the ruling coalition fanned the flames.
Tzvika Foghel, a lawmaker from the ultra-nationalist Jewish Power party, said the rampage would help deter Palestinian attacks. "I see the result in a very good light," he told Army Radio when asked about what the interviewer referred to as a pogrom.
Sunday's violence has drawn condemnation from the international community. U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said the shooting attack and the rampage "underscore the imperative to immediately de-escalate tensions in words and deeds."
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said he held the Israeli government responsible for what he called "the terrorist acts carried out by settlers under the protection of the occupation forces tonight."
The violence erupted shortly after the Jordanian government hosted talks at the Red Sea resort of Aqaba aimed at de-escalating tensions ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
The Palestinians claim the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza Strip — areas captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war — for a future state. Some 700,000 Israeli settlers live in the West Bank and east Jerusalem. The international community overwhelmingly considers Israel's settlements as illegal and obstacles to peace. So far this year, 62 Palestinians, about half of them affiliated with armed groups, have been killed by Israeli troops and civilians. In the same period, 14 Israelis have been killed in Palestinian attacks.
Last year was the deadliest for the Palestinians in the West Bank and east Jerusalem since 2004, according to figures by the Israeli rights group B'Tselem. Nearly 150 Palestinians were killed in those areas, Some 30 people on the Israeli side were killed in Palestinian attacks.
The West Bank is home to a number of hard-line settlements — several of them in the immediate vicinity of Hawara — whose residents frequently vandalize Palestinians land and property.

Israel, Palestinians Reaffirm Need to Work Together
FDD/February 27, 2023
Latest Developments
Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) reaffirmed past peace deals at a Jordanian-hosted meeting on Sunday, and pledged to work together to tamp down West Bank violence. The rare convening of senior Israeli and PA civil servants in the Red Sea resort of Aqaba marked a breakthrough for long-stalled bilateral contacts, with Jordan, Egypt, and the United States attending in a show of regional sponsorship.
Expert Analysis
“While there is value to getting Israeli and PA officials back around the negotiating table, Prime Minister Netanyahu may be hard-put to persuade his electorate — or any Israelis, for that matter — about the worth of a Jordanian-hosted summit that appears to been meant to place the onus for West Bank violence on Israel. Restraining settlement growth on a day when two brothers from a settlement are murdered is a bitter pill to swallow. If the PA cannot deliver its own crackdown against West Bank terrorists, it can at least show good faith by ending its pernicious ‘pay-to-slay’ policy.
“The Biden administration took a back seat on this conference, sending delegates but letting Jordan and Egypt take the organizational lead. But Washington must not abdicate its role as Israel’s ally. The rightist coalition government in Israel will not long tolerate one-sided resolutions orchestrated by Amman or Cairo.” — Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO
“Thirty years have passed since the Oslo Accords, and much has changed. The Palestinians can no longer claim to be represented by a unitary leadership — and, indeed, their anti-peace elements are dominant. For the Aqaba’s communique to be more than mere lip-service, its participants must confront the changes on the ground and form a new, more credible vision for lasting Israeli-Palestinian accommodation.” — Joe Truzman, Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal
Talks Proceed as Violence Looms
The meeting in Jordan aimed to put an end to a year-old surge in Palestinian terrorism, including today’s attack that killed two young Israeli civilians. These attacks have escalated in recent weeks as the Muslim holy month of Ramadan looms. The five-nation group that met in Aqaba agreed to reconvene next month in Sharm El-Sheikh, an Egyptian resort across the Red Sea. Until then, Israel said, it would look at whether the PA might be able to take over counter-terrorism operations in the West Bank.
Pushing for Diplomacy
A Jordanian communique issued after the six-hour talks marked an effort to prod the sides back toward past diplomacy on a two-state solution to their conflict. Israel and the PA “affirmed their commitment to all previous agreements between them, and to work towards a just and lasting peace,” the communique said. It further outlined mutual steps “to end unilateral measures for a period of 3-6 months” while specifying only an Israeli commitment to refrain from announcing new settlement construction or the retroactive authorization of settlement outposts. Israel, for its part, has demanded that the PA cease acting against it at the International Court of Justice or other fora at the United Nations.
Conflicting Messages
Geopolitical realities intruded on the Aqaba meeting before it began, with Palestinian terrorist groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad condemning any PA engagement with Israel. While the talks were under way, a Palestinian gunman killed two Israeli brothers in their car in the West Bank. Meanwhile, two partners in the Israeli governing coalition, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, publicly spurned the call to restrain settlement growth — spelling a possible new political crisis for Netanyahu.
The head of Israel’s National Security Council insisted that Jerusalem’s policies would not change. “Contrary to reports about the meeting in Jordan, there is no change in Israel’s policy,” said Tzachi Hanegbi in a Hebrew statement. “In the coming months, Israel will legalize 9 outposts & approve 9,500 new housing units in Judea and Samaria. There is no construction freeze or change in the status quo on the Temple Mount and there is no restriction on IDF activity.”

Egypt’s FM visits Syria and Turkey in show of solidarity after deadly quake
Arab News/February 27, 2023
CAIRO: Egypt’s foreign minister visited Syria and Turkiye on Monday to convey a message of solidarity from Cairo following the devastating earthquake that struck the two countries on Feb. 6. Sameh Shoukry’s visit was the first by an Egyptian foreign minister to Syria since its civil war began in 2011, and another sign of the warming ties between Syrian President Bashar Assad and Arab states. Shoukry was met at Damascus airport by his Syrian counterpart, Faisal Mekdad, according to a tweet by Egypt’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson. The minister expressed his happiness at being in Syria and passed on a message of support from President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to Assad. He said Cairo had already provided more than 1,500 tons of aid and would continue to support Syria as it dealt with the impact of the quake. “The goal of my visit to Damascus is primarily humanitarian,” Shoukry said. Assad expressed his appreciation for the call he received from El-Sisi after the earthquake and thanked Egypt and its people for hosting Syrian refugees and treating them as brothers. After the meeting, Shoukry held talks with Mekdad and expressed the condolences of the Egyptian leadership, government and people for the victims of the earthquake and their wishes for a speedy recovery for those injured. He said that the governments of the two countries had been working together since the first days after the earthquake, and added that relations between Egyptian and Syrian people were “fraternal, strong and well-established.”Mekdad said: “We welcome the Egyptian foreign minister because when he comes to Damascus he comes to his home, his family and his country.”Shoukry’s meeting with Assad had focused on the effects of the earthquake as well as the historical relations between the two countries, he added. On Sunday, Hanafy Gebaly, speaker of the Egyptian parliament, arrived in Damascus as part of a delegation of heads of Arab parliaments on a visit aimed at supporting and showing solidarity with Syria. Also on Monday, Shoukry visited Turkiye, where he was received at the airport in Adana by his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu. The pair held talks before traveling to the port of Mersin to receive the sixth Egyptian aid shipment to Turkiye. Shoukry said the aid was indicative of Egypt’s keenness to alleviate the suffering of those affected by the earthquake and that directives had been issued to ensure aid ships were given priority when transiting the Suez Canal. He told a press conference that Egypt would do everything in its power to support the Turkish people. Cavusoglu thanked Egypt for its support and said his country would take concrete steps to boost Egyptian-Turkish to a higher level. “The presence of Sameh Shoukry has an important significance, and I offer thanks and appreciation to him for this visit,” he said.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 27-28/2023
Why the West Bank is in chaos
Jonathan Schanzer and Joe Truzman/Washington Examiner/February 27/2023
Palestinian terrorism in Israel is on the rise. Daily headlines convey a steady stream of stabbings, vehicular attacks, and other forms of violence.
Few expect the media to be fair, much less balanced. A recent and much-maligned New York Times headline blared: “At Least 2 Dead as Driver Rams Bus Stop in East Jerusalem.” No mention of the driver’s motivation (Palestinian nationalism). No mention of who was targeted or why (Israelis, just for being Israeli).
Some observers falsely assert cause and effect. Notably, a December op-ed by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman implied that the newly elected right-wing Israeli government, which had yet to take office, was driving up attacks.
Equally cringeworthy are reports describing recent bloodshed as a “fresh” surge of violence. That’s flat wrong.
Although it is tempting to look at Mideast violence as all part of the same perpetual “cycle of violence,” different waves are often clearly distinct from one another. The ability to delineate such trendlines makes it possible to determine the intent behind the waves of violence and better anticipate future ones. Such closer inspection reveals, as well, the foreign direction and funding for some of the attacks, widening the scope of responsibility beyond Israel and local Palestinian leaders.
There was a time when sustained West Bank violence was common. The intifada of 2000-2005 was an asymmetric war waged by Palestinian groups. But since then, thanks in part to the efficacy of Israel’s security barrier, not to mention careful and complex coordination between Palestinians and Israelis, the West Bank has been largely quiet.
By the end of 2021, however, armed clashes between Israeli forces and gunmen had become routine. So it behooves us to look for the turning point. We find it in May 2021 during an 11-day war between Israel and Hamas. Israeli security officials now say that Hamas made a strategic decision after that clash to abandon battles in Gaza because it is a territory the terrorist group already controls. Rather, it elected to export unrest and chaos to the West Bank, with assistance from Iran and some of its proxy groups, with the goal of taking it over. Stoking violence there has the benefit of threatening Israel and destabilizing the rival Palestinian Authority.
The effect was immediate. On June 10, 2021, Israeli security forces entered Jenin to search for two men who shot at Israeli soldiers. The Israelis were met with armed gunmen and members of the Palestinian Authority security services. Two Palestinian Authority security officers were killed in the ensuing gunfight, as well as the founder of Islamic Jihad’s Jenin branch. Two months later, amid an uptick in militant activity, Israeli forces killed another member of the Iran-backed Islamic Jihad in Jenin. In September, Israeli forces killed four members of Hamas, which also happens to be backed by Iran, during operations near Jenin and Jerusalem.
Violence continued into 2022. The first major attack took place on March 22, after an Islamic State sympathizer rammed a cyclist with his car and stabbed others in the southern Israeli city of Beersheba. That episode left four dead.
Five days later, two other ISIS sympathizers, Ayman and Khaled Ighbariya, carried out a shooting attack in the northern Israeli city of Hadera, murdering two Israeli Border Police officers. The two previously recorded a video swearing allegiance to ISIS and its leader at the time, Abu al Hassan al Hashimi al Qurayshi.
Then, on March 30, five people were shot and killed in the Tel Aviv suburb of Bnei Brak by Dia Hamarsheh, a Palestinian from the northern West Bank with connections to Islamic Jihad.
Jarred by the wave of violence, the Israel Defense Forces launched “Operation Wave Breaker” on March 31. Twenty-five battalions deployed to the West Bank.
There is little doubt that Israeli soldiers operating in the territory that the Palestinians seek for their national project has agitated some West Bankers. But the Israelis saw little choice, given the surge in violence. The terrorist attacks in the spring and summer of 2022 were clearly coordinated by Hamas, Islamic Jihad, al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades (a faction aligned with the ruling Palestinian Fatah party), and others.
Wave Breaker resulted in numerous injured and dead jihadis. However, the Palestinian fighters were not deterred. A subsequent increase in attacks targeting Israeli settlers in the West Bank was particularly notable.
By the spring of last year, Israeli defense officials observed that pockets of the West Bank were utterly lawless. Hamas’s strategic pivot in the summer of 2021 was paying dividends. The Palestinian Authority was either unwilling or unable to contain the chaos in towns such as Nablus and Jenin. After sustained Israeli political pressure, coupled with continued IDF operations, in September 2022, the Palestinian Authority arrested Musab Shtayyeh, a wanted member of Hamas. Israel lauded the arrest, which demonstrated the Palestinian Authority had the ability to act.
But it was too little and too late. The West Bank had become home to established terrorist organizations that previously lacked a foothold in the territory, such as the Gaza-based Mujahideen Movement and the Popular Resistance Movement. Worse, a new terrorist organization emerged: the Lions’ Den.
On Sept. 4, 2022, Palestinian media published footage of a memorial for gunmen killed by Israel associated with the Lions’ Den. The group appeared well armed, well financed, and surprisingly organized for a new actor on the scene. Reports suggest Iran helped to fund the group, which has enticed fighters to join its ranks from across the spectrum of Palestinian militant factions, with the promise of engaging in more aggressive battles with Israeli forces.
The Lions’ Den subsequently carried out dozens of attacks against IDF troops and settlers in the West Bank. But the group attacked inside Israel’s green line, too. On Sept. 8, 2022, Israeli police thwarted a large-scale terrorist attack in Jaffa, apprehending a 19-year-old resident of Nablus carrying a bandana of the Lions’ Den, a makeshift machine gun, and pipe bombs. Israeli Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai claimed to have prevented “a massacre.” Haaretz later confirmed that Lions’ Den was responsible.
The chaos continues. Attacks are mounted nearly every day, inside Israel and in the West Bank. An interactive map created by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and updated daily clearly demonstrates the arc of this campaign. No less than 1,120 violent incidents have occurred since March.
Sadly, in today’s media environment, when reporters say something is “new,” it’s often merely new to them. Especially when Israel is involved, such narratives are reinforced by completely unrelated actions taken by the government that reporters find objectionable (judicial reform or settlement expansion, for example). U.S. officials weigh in, which then adds momentum to the coverage. And so these completely unrelated actions become post hoc justifications for Palestinian violence, even though the actual motivations are no mystery.
Crucially, documenting the campaign led by Palestinian terrorist groups is not rocket science. One of this article’s authors, Joe Truzman, has been keeping a running Twitter thread, in English, of the incidents and their genesis, and he is not alone in providing a reliable and easily accessible record of events. Yet this is scarcely reflected in most media coverage. The good news: This gap can be filled somewhat easily, enabling more accurate coverage of the conflict, so long as journalists want to correct their blind spots.
It might be tempting to place blame on an Israeli coalition of right-wing parties whose leaders continue to utter statements that Palestinians find offensive. But it’s also lazy. Such statements may exacerbate the problem, but they don’t alter the fact that this round of Palestinian terrorism began long before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu entered office. Indeed, the bulk of those 1,120 violent incidents occurred during the brief premiership of Naftali Bennett and caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid. It would be wrong to blame them, as well.
While the Israeli government continues to sustain a barrage of criticism (much of it unrelated, focusing on controversial judicial reforms), there is remarkably little analysis of the Palestinian Authority’s inability to counter the rise of Palestinian terrorist organizations in its territory. Towns including Jenin and Nablus, even Tulkarem, are still no-go zones. The Palestinian Authority appears more interested in referring Israel to the International Criminal Court on dubious charges than tackling the terrorist threat.
The violence in the West Bank and Israel is not new. Nor is it the result of Israel’s recent elections. The current narrative misses the real story. Israel is actively working to counter the surge in terrorism, instigated by Iran-backed groups seeking to destabilize Palestinian Authority territory, with a persistently erroneous media narrative that only makes the job that much harder.
*Joe Truzman is a research analyst for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’s Long War Journal. Jonathan Schanzer is senior vice president for research at FDD and author of the book Gaza Conflict 2021: Hamas, Israel and Eleven Days of War (FDD Press, 2021). Follow on Twitter @JoeTruzman and @JSchanzer. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

UN General Assembly votes 141-7 for Russian Forces to Withdraw from Ukraine
Bradley Bowman and Jack Sullivan/Policy Brief/February 27/2023 |
With an overwhelming vote of 141 in favor, seven opposed, and 32 abstentions, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly demanded on Thursday that Russia “immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine.” While the resolution does not have the force of law, the lopsided vote demonstrates continued widespread international outrage toward the Kremlin one year after it initiated its large-scale, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
The adopted resolution reaffirms “commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” demands an immediate and full Russian military withdrawal, calls for an end to attacks on civilians and critical infrastructure in Ukraine, and emphasizes the need for accountability for crimes committed in Ukraine.
The resolution specifically condemned Russia for “violations and abuses committed against children,” including those who have been “forcibly transferred and deported.”
According to a Conflict Observatory report published last week, Russia “has systematically relocated at least 6,000 children from Ukraine to a network of re-education and adoption facilities.” Eleven of the camps where these children are being detained are located over 500 miles from Ukraine’s border with Russia, and two of the camps are in Siberia.
The resolution also demands that Russia immediately cease its attacks against hospitals and schools, calling to mind the widely denounced Russian airstrike against a maternity ward in Mariupol last March.
The six-nation club that sided with Russia by voting against the resolution includes North Korea, Syria, Belarus, Eritrea, Nicaragua, and Mali, a group of countries largely known for extensive human rights violations themselves.
In contrast, a wide coalition of nations voted in favor of the resolution. They included European democracies such as Ireland and Denmark, Middle-Eastern monarchies like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and island nations such as Jamaica and Indonesia.
The list of 32 countries that abstained notably includes China and India.
Throughout the last year, Beijing has attempted to manage a difficult balancing act, providing diplomatic cover and cultivating its relationship with the Kremlin while trying to avoid the international disdain and potential consequences associated with supporting the invasion. Earlier this week, the Biden administration revealed that China has provided key industrial inputs to Russia’s war machine and that China is considering providing Russia with suicide drones similar to the Iranian Shahed-136 the Kremlin uses to destroy Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. The reality is that China and Russia are closer than they have been in decades, united in their disdain for the United States and the international rules-based order that constrains each government’s ambitions.
India, the world’s largest democracy and a growing partner of the United States, maintains longstanding security, diplomatic, and economic ties with Russia. New Delhi has resisted criticizing the Kremlin while importing record amounts of Russian oil, helping to fund Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. China’s growing alignment with Russia likely causes some consternation in New Delhi, given its long-standing border dispute with Beijing.
This resolution Thursday demonstrates continued international outrage toward the Kremlin for its invasion of Ukraine, offering a reminder that Russia could end the war tomorrow by ending its aggression and withdrawing its troops. Unfortunately, resolutions at the General Assembly won’t make that happen. The only hope of defeating the Russian invasion is by urgently delivering weapons to Ukraine in large and sustained quantities.
*Bradley Bowman serves as senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Jack Sullivan is a research associate. For more analysis from the authors and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. Follow Bradley on Twitter @Brad_L_Bowman. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

This War May Be Heading for a Cease-Fire
Sergey Radchenko/The New York Times/February, 27/2023
After a year of brutal fighting, in which thousands of lives have been lost, civilian infrastructure destroyed and untold damage caused, the war has reached a stalemate. Neither side will countenance a negotiated settlement. On the battlefield, battered armies contest small strips of territory, at a terrible cost. The threat of nuclear escalation hangs in the air. This isn’t Ukraine today; it’s the Korean Peninsula in 1951. No two wars are exactly alike, of course. But in the long history of carnage, one war stands out for its relevance to the current blood bath in Ukraine: the war in Korea from 1950-53, where the South Koreans and their allies, headed by the United States, battled it out against North Korean and Chinese troops, backed by the Soviet Union. There are all sorts of lessons to be gleaned from the conflict. But the most important might be how it ended.
In Ukraine, an end to the war seems a long way off. For Russia, victory would most likely entail securing the Ukrainian territory it claims as its own. For Ukraine, nothing less than driving Russian troops out of the country — including Crimea — will do. Neither side is interested in negotiations, and it’s hard to see how a peace settlement would come about.
In Korea, the situation was similar: Neither North nor South Koreans, nor their sponsors, were in a hurry to end the war. But the conflict — which claimed as many as three million lives and destroyed entire cities — gradually fizzled out, leading to a cease-fire and a temporary division of the Korean Peninsula that proved more lasting than anyone could have imagined at the time. In the end, a stalemated war proved preferable to the alternatives.
The decision to start the war in Korea was made by one man: Joseph Stalin, leader of the Soviet Union. After initially rebuffing the pleas of North Korea’s dictator, Kim Il-sung, for Soviet permission to invade the South, Stalin changed his mind in January 1950. The reasons were twofold. First, with the impending conclusion of the Sino-Soviet Treaty of alliance, which would be signed in Moscow on Feb. 14, 1950, Stalin knew that he could count on the Chinese to participate in the war if required.
Second, and of potentially greater importance, were misleading signals from the United States. Chief among them were Secretary of State Dean Acheson’s famous pronouncement on Jan. 12, 1950, that excluded Korea from America’s “defensive perimeter.” Combined with intercepted intelligence, it was enough to reassure Stalin — wrongly, as it turned out — that the United States would not intervene in Korea.
Given the green light to invade, North Korean forces crossed the 38th parallel on June 25, 1950, soon capturing Seoul and pushing forward in a grand sweep that could well have ended with their capture of all of Korea. But a decisive intervention by the United States, under the United Nations flag, brought disarray to the North Korean ranks and turned the tide of the war. In late September 1950, Gen. Douglas MacArthur, in charge of the West’s war effort, made the fateful decision to cross into North Korea, aiming to liberate the northern half of the country.
Watching these developments from afar, Stalin urged the Chinese to join the fray. After some initial hesitation, Mao Zedong, whose Communist victory in China had come just the year before, agreed. The Chinese secretly began crossing into North Korea in late October 1950. The war entered a new bloody stage. Initially, the Chinese “people’s volunteers” (as these troops were deliberately miscalled) scored impressive victories, pushing the United Nations forces south of the 38th parallel and recapturing Seoul. But their momentum did not last. Plagued by logistical difficulties and American bombing, the offensive petered out by May 1951. But nor were the Americans able to make much headway in the months that followed. Although the two sides fought several battles between 1951 and 1953, the war basically stalled.
It was clear by the summer of 1951 that the war was not going anywhere, yet it took two more years — punctuated by a lethal artillery barrage across the line of control and intermittent fighting — before the fighting was brought to an end. In the interim, tens of thousands were killed, and widespread U.S. bombing of North Korea’s hydroelectric dams led to complete blackouts in the North.
The ostensible reason for the delay was that many Chinese and North Korean prisoners of war showed no interest in being exchanged, preferring to stay with their captors. But the real problem was Stalin’s reluctance to agree to a cease-fire. “I don’t think you need to expedite the war in Korea,” he wrote to Mao in June 1951. “A protracted war, first of all, is allowing the Chinese troops to perfect modern fighting skills on the battlefield and, secondly, is shaking Truman’s regime in America and is undermining the prestige of Anglo-American forces.”
The dictator was perfectly happy to let the war continue. The Chinese, the Koreans and the Americans were doing most of the dying, after all. It was only with Stalin’s death in March 1953 that Soviet leaders reconsidered the whole misadventure and prodded their allies toward an agreement. The armistice agreement was duly signed in the little village of Panmunjom on July 27, 1953. It was, crucially, a cease-fire. There was no peace treaty, no negotiated settlement. Technically, the war is still frozen, not finished.
Even so, an uncertain peace followed and, remarkably, it held. There are indications that Kim Il-sung pondered another invasion of South Korea in the late 1960s, when the United States, facing defeat in Vietnam, appeared least prepared for another flare-up in Korea. But neither the Chinese nor the Soviets were enthusiastic. The Sino-Soviet alliance had long cratered, and the erstwhile comrades in arms had even fought a brief war over their disputed frontier in 1969. In the 1970s North Korea began to fall substantially behind in economic competition with the South. Unification, if it came, could be only on Seoul’s terms.
Seventy years after the Korean armistice, the Kim dynasty still rules the North. The ugly regime, now armed with nuclear weapons, is still backed by China and Russia and, in its turn, has reportedly helped the Russians to wage war in Ukraine by providing ammunition. China, too, has taken a benign view of Vladimir Putin’s misadventure, though, unlike Stalin in 1951, Xi Jinping probably does not want to see this war drag on indefinitely. He would surely be very happy with a cease-fire.
That may in fact be the preferred solution in other quarters — certainly in the global south, which sees nothing to gain from the conflict, and among many constituencies in the West. The parties most clearly opposed to the idea are those who are fighting it out on the ground: the Russians and the Ukrainians. For Ukraine, repelling an invading force that lays claim to almost one-quarter of its territory, such a position is understandable.
Yet if neither side makes significant gains in coming months, the conflict could well be heading for a cease-fire. The Ukrainians, though perhaps not fully recovering their territories, will have fended off an aggressive foe. The Russians, for their part, can disguise their strategic defeat as a tactical victory. The conflict will be frozen, a far-from-ideal result. Yet if we have learned anything from the Korean War, it is that a frozen conflict is better than either an outright defeat or an exhausting war of attrition.

A Race of Competing Bets and The Diplomacy of Catastrophes
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al Awsat/February 27/2023
We are seeing contradictory indications regarding the trajectory region’s multiple crises. Some are positive and optimistic, while others are negative and pessimistic. This is strengthening ambivalence and complicating projections about the future.
On the one hand, we have seen signs of Arab openness to Syria in the aftermath of the devastation wreaked by the earthquake in Syria and Türkiye, which demands humanitarian and national solidarity. Preludes of this openness began to emerge before the calamity. The Emiratis showed early signs of openness to President Bashar al-Assad, who had visited the Emirates before Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed visited Damascus when the Emirati embassy reopened in 2018, following a diplomatic hiatus that began with the eruption of the revolution in Syria.
We saw two major developments in this regard last week. First, Assad visited Oman and met with Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said. Second, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan gave a statement saying that a “consensus is building in the Arab world that isolating Syria is not working and that dialogue with Damascus is needed at some point.” This position taken by the Saudis could lay the groundwork for several other Arab states, especially Gulf states, to take this course.
In the same context, we cannot ignore the fact that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi has called on UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed to provide more aid to Syria. Nor can we ignore the fact that he has spoken with President Assad, calling him for the first time since Sisi took power in 2014. Moreover, Assad received a similar call from the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, who had not contacted him in a decade.
Added to the Arab states’ reassessment of their position vis a vis the Assad regime, we have seen reports of indirect talks between the US administration and Iranian officials aimed at ensuring the release of American prisoners held in Iran, with Britain, Qatar, and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani taking part.There have also been leaks regarding efforts to resume negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. These new talks would take a different form to that seen in Vienna, and they could pave the way for parallel negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, through which it is hoped an understanding between them could emerge. Indications of an escalation between Iran and Israel have been building as well. The war of words and the routine Israeli military operations on Syrian territory have evolved into consequential attacks, like that on the facility in the heart of the capital Damascus, where Iranian experts had been meeting to discuss the development of drones. It left 15 people dead and immense damage in its wake. Earlier on, Iran had hit an Israeli-linked cargo ship flying a Liberian flag off the coast of Oman, causing minor damages.
This escalation comes amid Israel’s determination to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and the latter enriching uranium of 84 percent purity, leaving Iran on the cusp of becoming a nuclear power.
This could precipitate a regional nuclear arms race, a regional war, or a swift resumption of negotiations. The latter is the least likely outcome because of Iran’s demands and its imperious and ambiguous behavior, which is unacceptable to the US, especially given the strengthened military cooperation between Iran and Russia, as Washington refuses to appease Russia’s allies in its war on Ukraine.
Indeed, the region has been put in flux by these two dynamics. The first dynamic is propelled by the Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who seek calm and political and economic stability to allow for development. They are thus working to conclude settlements or compromises with Iran that safeguard this climate. Relations with Iran will not necessarily be warm and friendly. Instead, the objective is to ensure stability and reduce tensions in areas where disputes are playing out. Deescalating the war in Yemen is the priority of the Gulf states, while other areas of dispute, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, are of secondary importance. The second dynamic, which pushes against the first, is fueled by Israel, which is escalating against Iran through every means available to it. The former is particularly concerned with putting an end to Iran’s nuclear program and Iranian expansion on its borders, albeit while its attacks continue to orbit around the Assad regime. These are two different dynamics, but they are emerging amid increasingly open and robust relations between Israel and the Gulf states, especially the UAE and Bahrain.
The two dynamics open the door to the US playing a role in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power, which would avert new conflicts in the region and quell tensions in conflict zones. Developments could be cooking slowly in Iraq, which plays a mediating role between Washington and Tehran, as well as Saudi Arabia and Iran. The openness to the Assad regime, though limited to the Arab world, is outside this framework.
Lebanon, which has become accustomed to seeing its crises mushroom, with one crisis growing from the other, might also be affected if Washington manages to create balance between the two dynamics in the region. The war in Yemen has not stopped, and as we have mentioned, it would be the cornerstone of any settlement, but resolving the conflict there is more difficult than any other.
Meanwhile, even if the US does indeed manage to create this kind of balanced role or pressure, this would not imply a decline in Iran’s regional influence. Indeed, it is worth noting that Tehran’s allies seek to enhance their autonomous political, security and financial foundations through their independent activities, be they legitimate or criminal and illegal. These allies are seeking to reduce their dependence on Iranian financial support - without, however, limiting or weakening their political and ideological ties to it. The armed factions loyal to Tehran in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon have begun moving in this direction.
It is worth noting all the scenarios that have been discussed here are tied to Iran’s actions, be they negative or positive. Thus, the answer to the question of whether the emergence of the Iranian-Russian axis in the aftermath of the Ukrainian war, which has entered its second year, will hinder regional settlements is crucial in this regard. It is especially consequential if the reports of a comprehensive defensive and high-tech partnership between the two countries are true.
Another matter that must be noted is that, after the recent shelling of Damascus, Iran announced that it would provide Syria with air defense missiles. Furthermore, Moscow will probably continue to protect Tehran from Security Council reprisals over the regime’s non-compliance with its obligations regarding its nuclear program. In short, the Ukraine war may well have engendered a shift in Moscow’s strategic calculations. Its assessment may have shifted so much that it now sees the help it provides Iran as a way to undermine US interests in the region by destabilizing it further and benefiting from the Arab openness to its ally (Assad). It is thus vital that Arab countries do their utmost to compel Moscow to limit its transfer of military technology to Iran, as such transfers would pose threats to regional security and increase Iran’s influence in Syria.

Iran file crucial to Netanyahu-Biden relationship
Chris Doyle/Arab News/February 27, 2023
The US-Israel relationship is at the center of Washington’s vision of the region. This status has been evident ever since 1967, when Israel demonstrated its military superiority over neighboring Arab states.
To cement this, the US has provided more aid to Israel than any other state since the end of the Second World War. The Obama administration had a rocky relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but it still saw fit to pledge $38 billion in American military aid to Israel for the period covering 2019 to 2028.
Yet, for all the protestations of a strategic, unshakeable relationship, it often appears pretty shaken and much stirred. The relationship may currently be experiencing one of those phases. As the Biden administration craves calm and stability in the Middle East, its leading ally is shaking things up. Once again, Israeli leaders are pressing for Washington to get tough with Iran. The question being asked by commentators is whether Netanyahu and Joe Biden can come together on this file in a way they have not on the Palestinian question.
The US expects its allies to kowtow to Washington. This is not the role Israeli leaders like to play. The most audacious move by an Israeli leader was arguably when Netanyahu brazenly used a speech to Congress to lobby against the Iran deal in 2015. Many in the Obama administration saw Netanyahu as fighting the US, not Iran, even to the extent of risking bipartisan support for Israel by antagonizing the Democrats. If Israel’s security is so tied to American military and economic muscle, why pick a fight with your ally? Undermining that relationship is surely a threat to Israeli security.
Is Netanyahu prepared to go a full 15 rounds with President Biden too? Has the Israeli leader learned from 2015. Do not bet on this. The two know each other well, both their strengths and their weaknesses. In contrast, Netanyahu and Barack Obama only met for the first time in 2007, one year before the latter’s first presidential election victory.
The US-Israeli relationship is a mixed bag right now. On the plus side for Israel, the US is not backing off in terms of military support. In January, the US and Israel held their largest ever joint military exercise. And a military exercise last November involved long-range military flights, clearly with Iran in mind. This could just be saber-rattling, but also a product of Biden’s irritation at Tehran’s supply of military hardware to Russia.
In contrast, on the Palestinian file, the US is peeved. Officials feel that Netanyahu has ignored American messages on this issue and caved in all too easily to the settler demands of his coalition partners. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had thought his visit to Israel had dampened some of the settlement and demolition plans. If there was not quite a freeze, he expected a significant slowdown.
Far from applying any brakes, Netanyahu et al are pressing hard on the accelerator. The doomsday settlement of E1 is advancing through another approval stage, settlement outposts are to be legalized under Israeli law and 7,000 settlement units in 35 settlements are about to be approved.
The US and Israel have very different long-term goals. Israel wants the US to be permanently tied into the Middle East, backing its own agenda. With US backing, it can dictate its own vision on the region. It allows Israeli planes to bomb Iranian and other targets in Syria in full knowledge that the US is there as cover. That said, Israeli leaders do consider the scenario of the US moving away from Israel. Netanyahu has always had a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, even now. And Israel and China have close ties, far closer than Washington would like.
But if there is one thing that US politicians have tended to agree on in recent years, it is that the US should be pulling back from the Middle East and paying more attention to the Pacific, particularly China. They know the fate of Iran and the Palestinians will not determine the course of the 21st century. Biden does not want to get sucked into the Palestinian issue, nor did Obama. The preferred option for Iran is to keep it under lock and key, hoping a diplomatic opening of consequence arises. Blinken last week made it clear that the negotiations were going nowhere, “but the door is always open to diplomacy going forward. A lot depends on what Iran says and does and whether or not it engages.” The US and its European allies cannot afford a war with Iran, not least because of Ukraine.
Israel too can barely afford a conflict. It appears that investors are taking money out of the Israeli economy in part because of the huge battle over the Supreme Court. Talk of a conflict with Iran only hastens this financial flight.
As the Biden administration craves calm and stability in the Middle East, its leading ally is shaking things up.
However, the US could still be sucked reluctantly into conflict with Iran. The CIA director has just stated that he does not believe that the Iranian supreme leader has yet decided on nuclear weaponization. But the International Atomic Energy Agency has determined that Iran’s uranium enrichment program has advanced to 84 percent purity and was in theory within weeks of achieving 90 percent. Iran denies this and claims it has not gone beyond 60 percent. Meanwhile, its ballistic missile program is making headway toward the stage of being able to carry nuclear weapons. Only last week, Iran unveiled its Paveh cruise missile that has the capability of reaching Israel.
Biden would find himself in a tricky position should Iran advance on enrichment and resume a weaponization program. The administration may be compelled to put itself on a more aggressive footing. Biden will remember how the Obama administration lived in constant fear of a unilateral Israeli attack on Iran, thereby sucking the US into war.
Washington is upping its rhetoric, possibly to deter Iran. Comments from US Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides will have been a full orchestral symphony to Netanyahu’s ears. “As President Biden has said, we will not stand by and watch Iran get a nuclear weapon, No. 1. No. 2, he said, all options are on the table. No. 3, Israel can and should do whatever they need to deal with and we’ve got their back … The cooperation between Israel and the US vis-a-vis Iran is lockstep.”
Iran is well aware of the political and economic crisis Israel is facing. It can see the US as being conflict shy. Will the Iranian leadership try to exploit this? Perhaps. But they would be seriously ill-advised to do so.
Whatever differences exist between Biden and Netanyahu and whatever conflicting priorities the two have, one arena where they could come together is if Iran pushes too far on the nuclear file. Biden would be under pressure for action from Congress and Netanyahu would be under pressure from Israeli hawks. Whatever the Iranian hawks may think, Tehran has far better options on the diplomatic front than it does in any military scenario.
*Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. Twitter: @Doylech

Daesh and the Hashd enable each other’s war to dominate Iraq
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/February 27, 2023
Daesh and the militants of Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi in Iraq are two sides of the same coin: both wallowing in extreme violence, and exploiting each other’s existence to justify their expansive, extremist agendas. The Hashd’s Iranian masters have also exploited Daesh and Al-Qaeda in their quest for regional supremacy.
Soon after the creation of Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi in 2014 from existing Iran-backed militias, these paramilitary forces pushed Daesh out of the strategic town of Jurf Al-Sakhar. Hashd leader Abu-Mahdi Al-Muhandis oversaw the permanent expulsion of the town’s Sunni residents, and his “Hezbollah Battalions” converted the town into his personal fiefdom — establishing illegal detention and torture camps, and profiting from pilgrimage routes passing near the town, while controlling routes into southern Baghdad.
Hashd leaders are now explicitly agitating to implement the “Jurf Al-Sakhar model” across an extensive area of territory to the north of Baghdad, known as Tarmiyah — one of the few remaining areas where Daesh has been consistently active in recent months. This follows a major Daesh attack against the military in Tarmiyah on Feb. 16.
Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi’s fascination with Tarmiyah isn’t coincidental. It straddles the Euphrates River and the principal northern routes into Baghdad, and so would deliver to the Hashd some of Iraq’s best agricultural lands, pilgrimage routes, and a stranglehold over the capital. Iraq’s major highways are already festooned with illegal Hashd checkpoints, enabling these militias to massively profit from commercial activities, and significantly raising prices for consumers. Hashd factions are today among Iraq’s dominant economic actors across the full spectrum of legal and illegal sectors, rivaling each other for mafia-like dominance over every inch of Iraqi territory.
So the Hashd’s self-serving solution to the Daesh threat is to forcibly expel Tarmiyah’s Sunni residents and monopolize the region. Given that the Hashd and its allies gerrymandered themselves into imposing their choice of government last year, there may be nobody to stop them.
Since it first came into being, Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi has a long record of using Daesh as its personal bogeyman — just as Bashar Assad around 2012 successfully exploited Daesh to divide his enemies and distance the West from the Syrian arena. Daesh continues to be entrenched in regions where the Hashd exerts control, in particular rural areas of Nineveh, Salahuddin, Kirkuk and Diyala provinces.
In a mutual ploy, Daesh has regularly staged indiscriminate attacks in Shiite-majority areas, which the Hashd has followed up with mass purges and campaigns of sectarian cleansing against Sunni civilians. Grotesque figures, such as the Hashd’s Qais Al-Khazali, have routinely used language effectively calling for the genocide of Sunnis. Sectarian purges by these militias under the direction of Prime Minister Nouri Al- Maliki around 2013 played a major part in fueling support for Daesh in facilitating its 2014 takeover of much of the country.
Both sides have a comparable proclivity for extreme violence. Around 2006, Sunni extremists and Shiite death squads waged murderous campaigns of sectarian cleansing throughout Baghdad, slaughtering tens of thousands and causing countless others to flee. In a single incident on July 9, 2006, Shiite militias and local police surrounded Baghdad’s Jihad district and massacred dozens of Sunni citizens — just one of hundreds of such incidents over the years, as these paramilitaries pursued their relentless quest for dominance of Iraq.
The continuing Iran-fueled instability in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere is the incubator that will deliver the next generation of global terrorists
A recent UN report has determined that Al-Qaeda’s new leader Saif Al-Adl is based in Iran. Tehran has exploited this longstanding presence of Al-Qaeda personnel on its territory to wield control over the global jihad movement. During the 1990s, Al-Qaeda mastered the techniques of mass-casualty bombings learned from Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards. There is evidence that these parties were jointly complicit in terrorist atrocities, such as a succession of attacks inside Saudi Arabia during the 1990s and 2000s, so it is fitting that this IRGC-Al-Qaeda symbiotic relationship continues to the present day.
Meanwhile, the Hashd’s continuing campaign of terrorism against activists, journalists and rivals is encapsulated by the recent experience of prominent Iraqi environmentalist Jassim Al-Asadi, who was seized and tortured by paramilitaries. Al-Asadi is one of several environmental activists who have been targeted, apparently as a result of government officials and Hashd elements collaborating to neutralize critical voices. With Iran and Iraq facing major water shortages and massive environmental damage, these issues are a matter of life and death for millions, particularly as Tehran has repeatedly exploited its control of Iraq’s power grid and water sources to the detriment of its dysfunctional neighbour.
Human Rights Watch issued an extensive report documenting the killing, detention and torture of hundreds of activists since 2018. This includes dozens who were assassinated in or near their own homes, by paramilitaries who almost certainly will never be brought to justice.
Sara Edan received unwanted death threats from militias, after participating in 2018 protests in Basra. She fled Iraq, but returned in 2019 because her mother had cancer. Despite keeping a low profile and avoiding the protests that year, she and her husband were found shot dead in their own home, a short distance from a police checkpoint. When activist Reham Yaqoub was shot dead in her car in 2020, a police checkpoint next to the location had been vacated shortly before her killing — part of a consistent pattern of paramilitary and police collusion in such incidents.
In 2014, the US administration made the mistake of believing that the Hashd could be wielded as a weapon against Daesh. But Daesh and the Hashd come as a package; they both advance each other’s agenda by fueling instability and sectarian tensions, to consolidate their positions and justify their existence.
Today, the Hashd exercises a total stranglehold over Iraq — alongside parallel entities in Syria, Yemen and Lebanon — yet the global media rarely bothers to mention this group, and it consistently shocks me how many Western foreign policy officials have scarcely any comprehension of what this group is and the threat it poses to the region.
Just as Hezbollah during the 1980s effectively invented the techniques of modern terrorism, Iran’s proxies throughout the region are a major reason why jihadist terrorism and sectarian hatreds have flourished. The continuing Iran-fueled instability in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere is the incubator that will deliver the next generation of global terrorists.
The world may have long-since abandoned these conflict zones — but the monsters they produced have not abandoned their aspiration to break out and once again menace the world.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Al-Sudani’s balanced approach key to addressing Iraq’s crises
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/February 27, 2023
Four months since Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s government obtained a parliamentary vote of confidence for its brief one-year tenure — which is enough time to explore the government’s orientations and foreign policy priorities — the PM has generated controversy for prioritizing a policy of “openness and striking balances.”
These concerns have been raised even though Al-Sudani was selected by Iranian-aligned political coalitions that had hoped to use his government to constrain the policy of compromise and of striking balances (between Iran and its associated proxy actors and Iraqi interests with the Arab world) introduced by his predecessor, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi. The pro-Iranian coalitions’ objective was to increase their control over Iraqi decision-making and derail efforts to restore Iraq to the Arab sphere, an orientation rejected by Al-Sudani, who prefers a policy of openness and balance with the outside world.
Al-Sudani’s manifesto also includes provisions for eliminating corruption and empowering the national army. These moves, however, conflict with the interests of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. He has also reaffirmed the importance of establishing balanced and positive ties with brotherly Arab and Gulf states, as well as with neighboring countries, based on mutual respect, partnership and equitable treatment.
Since assuming office, Al-Sudani has attempted to put components of his manifesto into action through various programs and by issuing directives to continue the efforts initiated by his predecessor to tighten control of the Iraqi-Iranian borders, fight drug trafficking and stop the smuggling of dollars. He also decided to continue mediating between Riyadh and Tehran, promptly holding meetings with Gulf ambassadors to work on this role and visiting a number of Gulf states. During these visits, he underlined his vehement opposition to militias using Iraqi territory to launch attacks against the Gulf states.
In an important gesture reflective of his balanced approach, Al-Sudani announced the return of the Arabian Gulf Cup to Iraqi territory after a three-decade absence. The involvement of Iraq’s Gulf allies meant the event was distinguished by the Iraqis’ great warmth and hospitality to all those participating. This tournament took place despite Al-Sudani’s awareness of how sensitive the use of the term “Arabian Gulf” is in Iran. It generated huge controversy within the Iranian corridors of power, to the point where the Iraqi ambassador to Tehran was summoned in protest at the use of the term.
Al-Sudani has visited Iran and plans to visit Turkey and Egypt. These diplomatic visits stem from his desire to reduce tensions between rival regional powers so that Iraq is not entangled in their settling of scores. He also arranged the second Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Leadership, which was held in Amman in late December in coordination with the Jordanian leadership.
In a blow to Iran, Al-Sudani last month expressed, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, his desire to keep foreign forces — in reference to US and NATO troops — in Iraq until Daesh is totally obliterated. In January, Al-Sudani visited Germany and France, two European countries that wield significant influence on the global stage. Additionally, there are predictions that he will shortly visit the US and send a delegation to hold discussions and coordinate with the Biden administration on the smuggling of dollars via the Iran-Iraq borders.
The prime minister is demonstrating his awareness of the crucial significance for Iraq of brotherly Gulf states.
Al-Sudani’s preference for continuing Al-Kadhimi’s “balance and openness” policy reflects his deep awareness of the important accomplishments Iraq achieved during his predecessor’s reign. Through adopting the same policy, Al-Sudani is demonstrating his awareness of the crucial significance for Iraq of brotherly Gulf states and of their helpful role in resolving the country’s outstanding crises. Al-Sudani is aware of the recent changes in the Iraqi arena. The Iraqi street, which rejects subordination to Iran, is calling for Iraq to return to the Arab sphere, which now has the upper hand in allowing Iraqi governments to stay in power and preventing Iraqi premiers from suffering the same fate as former Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi.
Furthermore, this balanced policy gives Al-Sudani more leeway and helps him emerge as an independent figure capable of addressing the outstanding domestic crises, such as power and water shortages, as well as unemployment, all of which were exacerbated following the US invasion in 2003. This policy also improves his government’s chances of gaining support from the Gulf states, the region and the international community until next year’s early election. The balanced policy also makes Al-Sudani an acceptable mediator among rival regional powers, particularly Riyadh and Tehran, which will enable both to calm regional tensions and turn Iraq into a vital player in conflict resolution.
Most crucially, Al-Sudani’s shunning of a policy of uniting and aligning Iraq with specific axes, particularly the Iranian axis, will empower the Gulf states to pursue strategic cooperative ventures with Iraq. Several projects have already moved to an advanced point, particularly the Iraq-Gulf electrical interconnection project, which is an expression of the Gulf’s desire to provide electricity to Iraq. In doing so, the Gulf states hope to alleviate the electrical problem, improve Iraq’s ability to satisfy its electricity needs, and alleviate the suffering of Iraqis due to summer power outages. They also seek to deprive Iran of this significant lever that it has used against successive Iraqi governments.
To conclude, based on Al-Sudani’s meetings and visits to date, it appears that he has many measures up his sleeve to achieve greater balance for Iraq — an issue he considers a necessity to put the nation in a position to form stronger international connections and help in resolving disputes, thereby mitigating its political and security crises. These measures include tightening border security, prohibiting the possession of weapons outside state control and preventing Iraq from becoming a launchpad for attacks on Gulf states.
Al-Sudani will also try to resolve the remaining water issues with Iran and completely eradicate any efforts by the remnants of Daesh in northern Iraq, with the terror group’s activities and redeployment greatly aided by the presence of Iranian regime-affiliated militias.
More importantly, Al-Sudani appears to be working to dispel concerns that he might use the balance policy as a systematic approach to sustain his one-year tenure and win a new term, in which he would return Iraq to being subordinate to Iran. These concerns continue to arise given Al-Sudani’s affiliation with the Coordination Framework and his closeness to Nouri Al-Maliki, Iraq’s notorious former prime minister and head of the State of Law Coalition.
• Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah).
Twitter: @mohalsulami