English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 27/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
No one can serve two masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other,
or you will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both
God and money.
Matthew 06/19-24/ “Do not store up for yourselves
treasures on earth, where moths and vermin destroy, and where thieves break in
and steal. But store up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where moths and
vermin do not destroy, and where thieves do not break in and steal. For where
your treasure is, there your heart will be also. “The eye is the lamp of the
body. If your eyes are healthy, your whole body will be full of light. But if
your eyes are unhealthy, your whole body will be full of darkness. If then the
light within you is darkness, how great is that darkness! “No one can serve two
masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other, or you will be devoted
to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 26-27/2023
The leper’s faith teaches us that God always listens and responds to our
requests when we approach Him with pure hearts
Elias Bejjani/February 26/2023
Patriarch Rahi: I warn against tampering with people’s money & banking system
Bishop Aoudi: What prevents the president from being elected? Why tthose who are
blocking the election stop? Is it good for the country to remain without a
president who, by virtue of the constitution, is a symbol of the unity of the
country?
Report: 'Embezzled' Lebanese Cash in Swiss Banks
Akkar cleric missing since 5 days killed by relatives
Lebanese cleric and Hezbollah critic mourned after body found
Mufti Derian: Kidnapping and killing of Sheikh Al-Rifai is prohibited by
religion & authorities must punish the criminal
Al-Hajj: Lebanese Forces’ stance has not changed in terms of refusing to hold
cabinet sessions except for extreme necessity
Jumblatt cables condolences over passing of Senator Abou Rizk: He was a
dedicated fighter against discrimination
Abdallah says solution lies in curbing chaos, accountability for fraud
Hamieh: Reform is a solid foundation for activating Lebanon's relations, but on
the basis of national sovereignty
Hezbollah offers condolences to Al-Rifai family, people of Akkar & Dar Al-Fatwa,
demands that those who spread rumors be held accountable
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 26-27/2023
Iran's currency hits new low amid anti-government protests
Iran releases Spanish woman after three months in jail over protests
War in Ukraine by the numbers: Mass deaths, billions in aid, thousands of
destroyed tanks, and more stats that paint an image of Russia's unprovoked
invasion
Macron to visit China after Beijing's Ukraine peace plan
Why China may consider arming Russia
Putin: NATO Taking Part in Ukraine Conflict with Arms Supplies
Drone footage shows Bakhmut devastated by Russian forces
Palestinian gunman kills 2 Israelis in West Bank, Israeli officials say
Aqaba Meeting: Israelis, Palestinians Pledge to Curb Violence
Jordan King Tells McGurk of Urgent Need to Reduce Escalation
Senior Arab parliamentarians in Syria for talks with Assad
Titles For
The Latest
English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 26-27/2023
Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die/Szu
Ping Chan/The Telegraph/February 26, 2023
Their Hair Long and Flowing or in Ponytails, Women in Iran Flaunt Their Locks
Farnaz Fassihi/The New York Times/February 26, 2023
China Crosses "Red Line" Advancing Russia's War Effort/Judith Bergman/Gatestone
Institute/February 26, 2023
The Damascus Meeting/Tariq Al-Homayed/i/Asharq Al Awsat/February 26/2023
The Republic of Fear: 20 Years After/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/February
26/2023
Daesh and the Hashd enable each other’s war to dominate Iraq/Baria Alamuddin/Arab
News/February 27, 2023
Nuclear deal: The world cannot wait for Iran indefinitely/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/February 26, 2023
Syrian regime must realize that Iran’s presence is dangerous/Ghassan Ibrahim/Arab
News/February 26, 2023
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 26-27/2023
The leper’s faith teaches us that God always listens and responds to our
requests when we approach Him with pure hearts
Elias Bejjani/February 26/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/52983/elias-bejjani-the-lepers-solid-faith-cured-him/
Christ, the Son of God, is always ready and willing to help the sinners who seek
forgiveness and repentance. When we are remorseful and ask Him for exoneration,
He never gives up on us no matter what we did or said. As a loving Father, He
always comes to our rescue when we get ourselves into trouble. He grants us all
kinds of graces to safeguard us from falling into the treacherous traps of
Satan’s sinful temptations.
Jesus the only Son Of God willingly endured all kinds of humiliation, pain,
torture and accepted death on the cross for our sake and salvation. Through His
crucifixion He absolved us from the original sin that our first parents Adam and
Eve committed. He showed us the righteous ways through which we can return with
Him on the Day Of Judgment to His Father’s Heavenly kingdom.
Jesus made his call to the needy, persecuted, sick and sinners loud and clear:
“Come to me, all you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest.”
(Matthew 11:28) The outcast leper believed in Jesus’ call and came to Him asking
for cleansing. Jesus took his hand, touched him with love, and responded to his
request.
The leper knew deep in his heart that Jesus could cure him from his devastating
and shameful leprosy if He is willing to do so. Against all odds he took the
hard and right decision to seek out at once Jesus’ mercy.
With solid faith, courage and perseverance the leper approached Jesus and
begging him, kneeling down to him, and says to him, “If you want to, you can
make me clean.” When he had said this, immediately the leprosy departed from him
and he was made clean. Jesus extended His hand and touched him with great
passion and strictly warned him, “See you say nothing to anybody, but go show
yourself to the priest, and offer for your cleansing the things which Moses
commanded, for a testimony to them.” But the leper went out, began to proclaim
it much, and spread about the matter so that Jesus could no more openly enter
into a city, but was outside in desert places: and they came to him from
everywhere. (Mark 1/40-45)
We sinners, all of us, ought to learn from the leper’s great example of faith.
Like him we need to endeavour for sincere repentance with heartfelt prayer,
begging Almighty God for absolution from all our sins. Honest pursuit of
salvation and repentance requires a great deal of humility, honesty, love,
transparency and perseverance. Like the leper we must trust in God’s mercy and
unwaveringly go after it.
The faithful leper sensed deep inside his conscience that Jesus could cleanse
him, but was not sure if he is worth Jesus’ attention and mercy.
His faith and great trust in God made him break all the laws that prohibited a
leper from getting close to or touching anybody. He tossed himself at Jesus’
feet scared and trembling. With great love, confidence, meekness and passion he
spoke to Jesus saying “If you will, you can make me clean.” He did not mean if
you are in a good mood at present. He meant, rather, if it is not out of line
with the purpose of God, and if it is not violating some cosmic program God is
working out then you can make me clean.
Lepers in the old days were outcasts forced to live in isolation far away from
the public. They were not allowed to continue living in their own communities or
families. They were looked upon as dead people and forbidden from even entering
the synagogues to worship. They were harshly persecuted, deprived of all their
basic rights and dealt with as sinners. But in God’s eyes these sick lepers were
His children whom He dearly loves and cares for. “Blessed are you when people
reproach you, persecute you, and say all kinds of evil against you falsely, for
my sake. Rejoice, and be exceedingly glad, for great is your reward in heaven.
For that is how they persecuted the prophets who were before you”.
Matthew(5/11-12)
The leper trusted in God’s parenthood and did not have any doubts about Jesus’
divinity and power to cleanse and cure him. Without any hesitation, and with a
pure heart, he put himself with full submission into Jesus’ hands and will
knowing that God our Father cannot but have mercy on His children. “Blessed are
the pure in heart, for they shall see God”. (Matthew5/8)
We need to take the leper as a role model in our lives. His strong and steadfast
faith cured him and put him back into society. We are to know God can do
whatever He wants and to trust Him. If He is willing, He will. We just have to
trust in the goodness and mercy of God and keep on praying and asking, and He
surely will respond in His own way even though many times our limited minds can
not grasp His help.
Praying on regular basis as Jesus instructed us to is an extremely comforting
ritual: “Therefore I tell you, all things whatever you pray and ask for, believe
that you have received them, and you shall have them. Whenever you stand
praying, forgive, if you have anything against anyone; so that your Father, who
is in heaven, may also forgive you your transgressions. But if you do not
forgive, neither will your Father in heaven forgive your transgressions” (Mark
11/24-26)
The leper’s faith teaches us that God always listens and always responds to our
requests when we approach Him with pure hearts, trust, confidence and
humbleness. Almighty God is a loving father who loves us all , we His children
and all what we have to do to get His attention is to make our requests through
praying. “Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find. Knock, and it
will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who seeks finds. To
him who knocks it will be opened”. (Matthew 7/8 -9)
Patriarch Rahi: I warn against tampering with
people’s money & banking system
NNA/February 26/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116153/%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%b7-%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%88-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%84%d9%87%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b0%d9%8a-%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a3%d8%b3%d9%87-%d8%a7%d9%84-4/
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Beshara Boutros Al-Rahi, presided this morning over
Sunday Mass in Bkirki.
During his sermon, Patriarch Rahi spoke about educational affairs, considering
that the government and the Ministry of Education cannot ignore students' loss
of education in public schools. Al-Rahi also touched on the presidential file,
saying: "No matter how long the presidential vacuum lasts, elections must take
place on the basis of the voting mechanism in the House of Representatives."
Commenting on the issue of banks and depositors’ money, he warned against
tampering with the people’s money and the banking system, and about the danger
of harming Lebanon’s external reputation, “so that it becomes a country far from
the global financial system, and at that time there will be no benefit for any
solution.”Finally, the Patriarch expressed his condolences to the family of
Sheikh Ahmed Al-Rifai and Dar Al Iftaa, stressing the importance of the country
not being able to live under security chaos.
Bishop Aoudi: What prevents the president from being
elected? Why tthose who are blocking the election stop? Is it good for the
country to remain without a president who, by virtue of the constitution, is a
symbol of the unity of the country?
LCCC/February 26/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116153/%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%b7-%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%88-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%84%d9%87%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b0%d9%8a-%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a3%d8%b3%d9%87-%d8%a7%d9%84-4/
In his sermon today Bishop Aoudi asked, What prevents the president from being
elected? Why tthose who are blocking the election stop? Is it good for the
country to remain without a president who, by virtue of the constitution, is a
symbol of the unity of the country?
Lebanon has lost its political and diplomatic presence in the world, and its
foundations as a responsible country capable of making its voice heard. Lebanon
lost its role, status and presence, and nothing remained but the image of
corruption, rivalry and obstruction. The countries around us fly high as we roll
down. What are our deputies waiting for? Why don't they move? Why do the people
not hold them accountable for the inaction, the lack of responsibility, and
misbehavior? Did the people elect them to be idle or to work and produce? Is
there a more appropriate time to work than these difficult times? May our God
who loves mankind protect you, bless your lives, and strengthen you in your
spiritual strife and fasting, Amen.
Report: 'Embezzled' Lebanese Cash in Swiss
Banks
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 February, 2023
Banks in Switzerland are holding a substantial amount of the millions of dollars
Lebanese central bank chief Riad Salameh is accused of embezzling, Swiss media
reported on Sunday. Salameh, 72, faces investigations related to suspicions of
money laundering and illicit enrichment in Lebanon and abroad after he amassed a
fortune in the country mired in financial crisis. A Lebanese judge on Thursday
filed new charges against Salameh, his brother Raja and his former assistant
Marianne Hoayek for embezzlement of public funds and money laundering. Salameh
categorically denies all accusations against him and has rarely appeared before
the judiciary, despite numerous complaints, summonses, investigations and a
travel ban issued against him a year ago. Twelve Swiss banks have received a
large part of the money he is alleged to have embezzled, estimated at up to $500
million, SonntagsZeitung reported on Sunday, according to AFP. The Swiss weekly
said $250 million was left on Raja Salameh's personal account with HSBC's
subsidiary in Geneva. Other amounts ended up with UBS, Credit Suisse, Julius
Baer, EFG and Pictet, with the transactions carried out using an offshore
company registered in the British Virgin Islands, the report added.
"Considerable sums" were then allegedly used to buy real estate assets in
several European countries. SonntagsZeitung said some of the funds have already
been frozen, but federal prosecutors have not revealed how much. Switzerland's
federal market regulator FINMA has been carrying out preliminary investigations
into 12 Swiss banks "for months", it reported. A spokesman told the weekly that
legal proceedings had been started against two banks in the "Lebanese context",
but their names were not revealed. Lebanon opened an investigation into
Salameh's assets in 2021, after a request for assistance from Switzerland's
public prosecutor probing more than $300 million in fund movements by the
governor and his brother. Riad Salameh has headed Lebanon's central bank since
1993.
Akkar cleric missing since 5 days killed by
relatives
Associated Press/Sunday, 26 February, 2023
A Sunni Muslim cleric who went missing earlier this week was killed by people
from his northern hometown with whom he had been at odds with for more than a
decade, security officials said. Sheikh Ahmed Rifai was last seen in the
northern city of Tripoli Monday evening and his car was found days later in a
village a few kilometers south of the city. His family said they lost contact
with him Monday night after they tried to call him and found that his cellphone
was turned off. Rifai was the imam of the main mosque in the northern town of
Qarqaf in the impoverished northern Akkar region and was known for his fiery
speeches in which he used to blast the Iran-backed Hezbollah. There were
concerns that Rifai's case would incite sectarian tensions in the deeply-divided
country since he was a harsh critic of the powerful Shiite group Hezbollah as
well as the Syrian government and Iran. It turned out Rifai was killed by people
from his hometown, including some relatives, with whom he had been at odds with
since 2012, the officials said on condition of anonymity because they were not
authorized to speak to the media. They said that years ago some residents and
the cleric accused one of Rifai's relatives who was Qarqaf's mayor of
corruption.
Lebanese cleric and Hezbollah critic mourned
after body found
Najia Houssar/February 26/2023
Sheikh Ahmed Al-Rifai disappeared on Monday after his car was blocked by two
vehicles, according to witnesses
BEIRUT: The body of Lebanese cleric Sheikh Ahmed Al-Rifai, a vocal critic of
Hezbollah and Iran, was found on Saturday, a week after he went missing in
Tripoli. At 5:30 p.m. on Saturday, a website in the town of Qarqaf in northern
Lebanon mourned Al-Rifai’s death.
The religious leader, who was affiliated with Dar Al-Fatwa, hailed from Al-Qarqaf,
Akkar, where he was the imam of the mosque. Lebanese army forces entered the
area on Saturday to maintain security and prevent any retaliatory action.
Information circulating in the town said that a suspect arrested in the case
provided information on the location of the cleric’s body. Lebanese Prime
Minister Najib Mikati said earlier: “We are currently following up with the
competent judicial and security references; New data has emerged and we are
following up on it for full disclosure in this case.”Al-Rifai disappeared on
Monday after his car was blocked by two vehicles, according to eye-witnesses.
Masked men then forced him to go behind the Beirut Arab University building in
Tripoli. Four days after the incident, security forces found Al-Rifai’s
four-wheel drive near Haykel Hospital at the entrance to Koura, south of
Tripoli. Kidnappers are believed to have driven the vehicle there and parked it.
The cleric’s phone lost signal minutes after he arrived at Tripoli’s southern
entrance. Earlier he had performed evening prayers in a mosque in Beddaoui on
the city’s northern side.Security forces searched the area and confiscated
security cameras for analysis. A security source speculated that Al-Rifai “was
lured to the kidnapping site.”A close friend of the family told Arab News that
the cleric opposed Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, and had been active on
Twitter, where he spoke out against the “axis of resistance.”Security agencies,
from General Security to State Security and Security Forces, all denied having
arrested the cleric.
First Investigative Judge for Northern Lebanon Judge Samaranda Nassar took over
the case and began her investigations by inspecting his car in Koura. A close
friend of the family said earlier: “Security agencies raided Qarqaf on Friday
night and arrested Yahya Al-Rifai’s sons and cousins, and speculated their
involvement in the kidnapping of the cleric, as a result of the political
dispute in the family.”Sheikh Zaid Zakaria, mufti of Akkar, called on Qarqaf’s
townspeople to “be impervious to the spreading rumors.”A source from Dar
Al-Fatwa denied the presence of “conclusive evidence about Hezbollah’s direct
involvement in the cleric’s disappearance.”Sheikh Khaldoun Oreimat, who was
tasked by Dar Al-Fatwa to follow up on the case, told Arab News that Dar
Al-Fatwa had not communicated with Hezbollah to find out whether the party had
any involvement, “as it is not its (Dar Al-Fatwa’s) job.”“That was done by the
official security forces that often contact relevant entities that have
information, and the security agencies are taking the file in a serious
manner.”Sheikh Zaid Zakaria commended “the role of Lebanon’s Grand Mufti Sheikh
Abdel Latif Derian, his wisdom and directives to be prudent and wise, not to be
impervious to rumors or make accusations arbitrarily, to prevent a strife.”He
urged that the security investigation be allowed to take its course and said
that it is within the context of a normal investigation to summon or arrest a
person. “We must not give an opportunity to those who wish to create division
and conflict,” he said.
Mufti Derian: Kidnapping and killing of Sheikh Al-Rifai is
prohibited by religion & authorities must punish the criminal
NNA/Sun, February 26, 2023
Grand Mufti of the Republic, Sheikh Abdullatif Derian, affirmed that the
kidnapping and killing of Sheikh Ahmed al-Rifai was a horrific and painful
crime, stressing that this act is rejected by religion and contradicts human and
moral values. The Mufti called on the security and judicial authorities to
expedite the investigation and punish the criminals.
Al-Hajj: Lebanese Forces’ stance has not changed in terms
of refusing to hold cabinet sessions except for extreme necessity
NNA/Sun, February 26, 2023
Member of the "Strong Republic" parliamentary bloc, MP Razi Al-Hajj, considered
that what is happening at the level of holding parliament council legislative
sessions is to belittle the president of the republic’s post. Speaking during a
radio interview this morning, he deemed that “the other team is taking advantage
of the opposition's disagreement on a presidential candidate, and it is
diligently hijacking the constitution and disrupting the elections in an attempt
to find a way to appoint a president from its class.” Al-Hajj refused the
principle of bargaining over the name of the future president, considering that
“the position of the first presidency is not a detail or a piece of barter, for
the presence of a president at the head of the state alone restores public order
to the country’s constitutional institutions.”At the government level, he
reaffirmed that "the position of the Lebanese Forces Party has not changed in
terms of refusing to hold cabinet sessions except for extreme necessity."“Our
position is clear, and it stems from commitment to the content of the
constitution, which limits the work of the caretaker government to the narrow
sense only,” he asserted.
Jumblatt cables condolences over passing of Senator Abou
Rizk: He was a dedicated fighter against discrimination
NNA/Sun, February 26, 2023
Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Jumblatt, expressed his deep sorrow
over the passing of US-Lebanese Senator James Abou Rizk, founder of the
American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee. In a cable of condolences addressed
to the former Committee Chairman, Attorney Albert Mokheiber, Jumblatt said:
"What a sad news at this delicate moment in history, for the Arab world, and for
Palestine...He was a dedicated fighter against racial and intellectual
discrimination between people above all artificial borders...May his soul rest
in peace and may the Lord have mercy upon him."Jumblatt had received from
Moukheiber an obituary message on the passing of Abou Rizk, stating: “On
February 24, 2023, his 92nd birthday, our society and our nation lost civil
rights champion, Senator James (Jim) Abou Rizk. I had the honor of working with
Jim, first as legal Director, then as Chairman, and later as a member of the
Board of Directors of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC),
which he founded in 1980."He added, “Jim was unique in many ways, from his firm
commitment to civil and human rights, to his faithful representation of his
constituents in Congress. His vision in founding the ADC served not only to
protect the Arab American community, but also to empower the generations that
followed. He was tenacious for the truth, and merciful to the underpriviledged,
whether they were Native Americans or Palestinian refugees. He was as proud of
his Lebanese roots as he was of his upbringing in South Dakota.""Today we lost a
dear friend, mentor, and courageous leader, ranking among the best of America,"
Moukheiber concluded.
Abdallah says solution lies in curbing chaos,
accountability for fraud
NNA/Sun, February 26, 2023
MP Bilal Abdallah tweeted today: “I do not believe that pricing in dollars is
the solution to the chaos of prices and the greed of some merchants, no matter
how many justifications you give this measure...The Pharmacists Syndicate is
also right in rejecting this procedure. The only victim in this chain is the
citizen, the consumer, and the patient...The sole solution is curbing the chaos,
accountability for fraud and punishment for the perpetrators."
Hamieh: Reform is a solid foundation for activating
Lebanon's relations, but on the basis of national sovereignty
NNA/Sun, February 26, 2023
Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transport, Ali Hamiyeh, said in a
statement today that "the reforms that we have made and are continuing to make
at the level of all facilities of the Ministry of Public Works and
Transportation are at the heart of building the state that we are working on."
He continued: "Reform is a solid foundation for activating Lebanon's relations,
but on the basis of national sovereignty and free decision making."
Hezbollah offers condolences to Al-Rifai family, people of
Akkar & Dar Al-Fatwa, demands that those who spread rumors be held accountable
NNA/Sun, February 26, 2023
In an issued statement on Sunday, Hezbollah Party offered sincere condolences to
the Al-Rifai family, the people of Akkar, Dar Al-Fatwa and all the honorable
muftis, while condemning the crime that claimed the life of Sheikh Ahmad Shuaib
Al-Rifai and asking God Almighty to rest his soul in peace and grant his family
patience and solace.The Party praised "the important role played by the
Information Branch of the Internal Security Forces, which quickly and
efficiently uncovered this heinous crime in order to ward off sedition and
prevent its political exploitation."The statement denounced the unacceptable
positions that were made in wake of the crime and before unveiling the truth,
stances that lack the values of fairness, justice and humanity. Consequently,
Hezbollah called on the security and judicial apparatuses to work with all force
to hold accountable the instigators who spread false rumors, misled the security
investigation and worked to sow discord and undermine unity and stability in the
country.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on February 26-27/2023
Iran's currency hits new low amid anti-government
protests
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)
Iran’s currency fell to a new record low on Sunday, plunging to 600,000 to the
dollar for the first time as the effects of nationwide anti-government protests
and the breakdown of the 2015 nuclear deal continued to roil the economy.
Iranians have formed long lines in front of exchange offices in recent days,
hoping to acquire increasingly scarce dollars. Many have seen their life savings
evaporate as the local currency has deteriorated. Inflation reached 53.4% in
January, up from 41.4% two years ago, according to Iran's statistics center.
The dire economic conditions have contributed to widespread anger at the
government, but have also forced many Iranians to focus on putting food on the
table rather than engaging in high-risk political activism amid a fierce
crackdown on dissent.
Iran's currency was trading at 32,000 rials to the dollar when it signed the
2015 nuclear accord with world powers. The agreement lifted international
sanctions in return for strict limits on and surveillance of its nuclear
activities. The agreement unraveled when then-President Donald Trump
unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from it and restored crippling sanctions. Iran
responded by ramping up its enrichment of uranium, and now has enough for
“several” atomic weapons if it chooses to develop them, according to the U.N.'s
nuclear watchdog.
Iran insists its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, but experts say it had a
nuclear weapons program until 2003 and is developing a breakout capacity that
could allow it to quickly build an atomic weapon should it decide to do so. The
Biden administration supports a return to the 2015 agreement, but negotiations
hit an impasse last year and appear to have ground to a halt. Iran has further
angered Western countries by supplying armed drones to Russia that have been
used in its invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Iran has seen waves of
anti-government protests since the September death of a 22-year-old
Kurdish-Iranian woman who was detained by the morality police for allegedly
violating Iran's strict Islamic dress code. The protests rapidly escalated into
calls for the overthrow of Iran's ruling Shiite clerics, marking a major
challenge to their four-decade rule. Iran' has blamed the unrest on foreign
powers, casting it as an extension of the sanctions, without providing evidence.
The Trump administration had hoped that maximum sanctions would force Iran to
make major concessions on its nuclear activities, its ballistic missile program
and its military involvement in countries across the Middle East, but it has yet
to do so.
Iran releases Spanish woman after three months in jail over protests
MADRID (Reuters)/Sun, February 26, 2023
A Spanish woman imprisoned in Iran since November on espionage charges after she
was arrested during anti-government protests in November has been released, the
Spanish Foreign Minister said on Sunday. An activist who works for a human
rights NGO, 24-year-old Ana Baneira Suarez was detained in Iran during
nationwide protests sparked by the death in custody of a young woman in
September.
"My congratulations for the release of Ana Baneira. She is in good health,"
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares told journalists during a visit to
Albacete, in central Spain. Baneira was released on Saturday and was on her way
back to Spain on Sunday, he said.
The Iranian government did not respond to requests for comment on Baneira's
release. Albares said that another Spanish citizen, Santiago Sanchez Cogedor,
was still in Iranian custody but that he hoped for his release soon. Sanchez
Cogedor, 41, a football fan who decided to walk to the World Cup in Qatar but
was detained in Iran on Oct.2. Like Baneira, he was accused of espionage. Iran,
which has blamed "foreign adversaries" for protests sparked by the death of
22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in morality police custody. In September,
Tehran said nine Europeans had been arrested for their involvement in the
protests.
War in Ukraine by the numbers: Mass deaths, billions in
aid, thousands of destroyed tanks, and more stats that paint an image of
Russia's unprovoked invasion
Kelsey Vlamis,Erin Snodgrass,Charles R. Davis,Azmi Haroun,Ryan Pickrell/Business
Insider/Sun, February 26, 2023
February 24, 2023, marked the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of
Ukraine.
Hundreds of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians have been killed or wounded.
Billions of dollars of aid has been sent, and Russia has lost about half its
fleet of tanks.
Friday marked the one-year anniversary of Russia's unprovoked invasion of
Ukraine, which kicked off the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War II.
When his troops invaded on February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin
expected to quickly sweep through the country and capture Kyiv. But Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his forces met the invasion with striking
resistance and — with the help of a united West and a series of fumbles by
Russia — were able to hold them off, defying expectations throughout the world.
Still, the cost of the war — in lives, dollars, and military equipment — has
been high. Here are some of the key figures illustrating the consequences of the
war so far.
The dead and wounded
Russian troops killed: 40,000 to 60,000, per UK Defense Ministry
Russian casualties, or troops killed or wounded in action: Up to 200,000, per UK
Defense Ministry
Ukrainian troops killed: Up to 13,000, per a Ukraine official in December
Ukrainian casualties, or troops killed or wounded in action: Over 100,000, per
General Milley estimate in January
Civilians killed: At least 8,006, per the UN
Civilians injured: At least 13,287, per the UN
Ukrainian children killed: 461, with 927 wounded and 345 missing, per Children
of War
Notable Russians who have suspiciously died since the war started: At least two
dozen, per The Atlantic
Civilians killed in the Kyiv region — including Bucha: "More than 1,700
civilians were killed" in the Kyiv region, "including about 700 in Bucha," per
the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office, on February 22.
Refugees and those who have fled or been taken
Ukrainian refugees: 8 million, per UNHCR
Ukrainians displaced within the country: 5.9 million, per UNHCR
Ukrainian children taken to Russia: At least 6,000, per Conflict Observatory
(Kyiv has put this number at 14,000)
Russians who have fled the country: At least 500,000, per The Washington Post
Aid to Ukraine
Total amount of security assistance to Ukraine from the US: $29.8 billion, per
DOD
Total amount of aid to Ukraine from the US, including humanitarian, financial,
and military: $76.8 billion, per the Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Total amount of aid to Ukraine from the Europe Union: $58.2 billion, per the
Kiel Institute
Military
Tanks Russia has lost: Estimated 2,000 to 2,300, or about half of its pre-war
fleet, per the International Institute for Strategic Studies
Aircrafts Russia has lost: 342, per Oryx
Total number of pieces of military equipment Russia has lost: 9,394, per Oryx
Rounds of artillery the US has sent to Ukraine: More than 1 million, per DOD
Weapons the US has sent to Ukraine that proved to be game changers:
38 HIMARS, or High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems
8,500 Javelin anti-tank missiles
1,600 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
Other
Number of suspected war crimes: 65,000, per Ukraine's Prosecutor General and the
EU Justice Commissioner
Cost of damage to Ukraine economy and infrastructure: More than $700 billion,
per Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal
Number of Western sanctions against Russia: 11,800, per Atlantic Council
database
9,025 individuals
2,636 entities
119 vessels
22 aircraft
Number of US sanctions against Russia: More than 2,700, the highest number so
far, per Atlantic Council database
Macron to visit China after Beijing's Ukraine
peace plan
Agence France Presse/Sun, February 26, 2023
French President Emmanuel Macron said Saturday he would visit China in April,
and urged Beijing to pressure Russia to end the war in Ukraine. China has sought
to position itself as a neutral party on the conflict, even as it has maintained
close ties with Russia and helped scuttle a joint statement condemning the war
at a G20 gathering in India. It published a 12-point position paper on Friday
that called for urgent peace talks and a "political settlement" to end the
conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on
Friday also expressed hopes to meet Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, calling it
"important for world security."Macron said Saturday he would visit China in
"early April" and urged Beijing to help "put pressure" on Russia to end the war.
"The fact that China is engaging in peace efforts is a good thing," Macron said
on the sidelines of an agricultural show in Paris, in reference to the position
paper. Peace was only possible if "Russian aggression was halted, troops
withdrawn, and the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine and its people was
respected", he added. Earlier on Saturday, the Chinese foreign ministry said
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko would pay a state visit from February 28
to March 2 at Xi's invitation. A long-time ally of Russian President Vladimir
Putin, Lukashenko allowed his country to be used as a launchpad for Moscow's
invasion of its pro-Western ally on February 24 last year.
Kyiv has expressed concerns that Belarus could again support Moscow in
its war effort, with the countries announcing the creation of a joint regional
force last October. Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang told his Belarusian
counterpart Sergei Aleinik that Beijing was willing to work with Minsk to deepen
mutual political trust during a phone conversation on Friday, China's ministry
said in a statement. China would also continue to
support Belarus in maintaining national stability and oppose attempts by
"external forces" to interfere in its internal affairs or impose "illegal"
unilateral sanctions on Minsk, Qin told Aleinik.
Diplomatic rifts exposed -
The diplomatic rift between Beijing, Moscow and the West was exposed on Saturday
as G20 finance ministers failed to adopt a joint statement on the global economy
after China sought to water down references to the Ukraine war. Russia said the
United States, the European Union and the G7 "destabilised" the talks in India
by trying to impose their "diktat."The Chinese position paper urged all parties
to "support Russia and Ukraine in working in the same direction and resuming
direct dialogue as quickly as possible."It also made clear its opposition to the
use and threat of deploying nuclear weapons, after Putin threatened to use
Moscow's atomic arsenal in the conflict. Some of
Ukraine's allies have expressed scepticism at China's commitment to brokering
peace, nodding to Beijing's close ties to Moscow. China has denied a claim by US
Secretary of State Antony Blinken that it was "considering providing lethal
support" to Russia.
Macron urged China "not to supply any arms to Russia" and sought Beijing's help
to "exert pressure on Russia to ensure it never uses chemical or nuclear weapons
and it stops this aggression prior to negotiations."Zelensky did not specify
when or where talks with Xi would happen, but expressed hope Friday that China
would support a "just peace" in Ukraine and that Beijing would not supply
weapons to Russia.
- Spring counter-offensive -
On Sunday, the deputy chief of Ukrainian military intelligence told a German
newspaper group that a fresh push to retake seized territory was planned for
spring, adding Kyiv's forces would "not stop until we get our country back to
its 1991 borders.""One of our strategic military objectives is to try to drive a
wedge into the Russian front in the south -- between Crimea and Russian
territory," Vadym Skibitsky said. Beyond that, "the objective of our
counter-offensive is to liberate all the occupied territories of Ukraine,
including Crimea." Skibitsky also raised the possibility of future Ukrainian
strikes on "arms depots or military equipment on Russian territory, for example
around the city of Belgorod, from where attacks on Ukraine are launched."
On the ground, the head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group said his
forces had captured another village on the outskirts of the frontline city of
Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine on Saturday.
Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed the capture of Yagidne, a short distance from central
Bakhmut, which has become a key political and symbolic prize in the battle to
control the eastern Donbas region.
Why China may consider arming Russia
Dominic Nicholls/The Telegraph/February 26, 2023
The director of the CIA choosing to use the word “confident” to describe a US
assessment that China is considering arming Russia should set alarm bells
ringing throughout Ukraine and the West. British security professionals in the
intelligence community and other law-enforcement agencies use Whitehall’s
“probability yardstick” to express a level of confidence in the information they
are imparting. They have even attached figures to it. Intelligence analysts say
the likelihood of something happening is remote if they consider it to have less
than a 5 per cent chance of occurring. An event is deemed unlikely at 25-35 per
cent. A realistic possibility occurs between 40 and 50 per cent; and between 55
and 75 per cent it is likely or probable. The scale then goes to highly likely
(80 to 90 per cent) before arriving at almost certain (above 95 per cent).
William Burns’s use of the word “confident” will be assessed here as being much
closer to probable than possible. It would fit neatly into the likely or
probable category of having a 55 to 75 per cent chance of happening. The second
reason why Mr Burns’s warning is alarming is because of what it says about
Beijing’s calculus regarding the emerging global balance of power. Western
officials insisted this week there was no evidence China was supplying Russia
with lethal aid, but it would be a big step were Beijing to change that policy.
It would also ask questions of how far the West, with arguably far greater
economic dependencies on China, would be willing to go in response. China’s
President Xi Jinping will have noted how long it took Ukraine’s international
supporters to come to a consensus about action, particularly regarding economic
sanctions. He may well have calculated that the West – Europe especially – will
not be similarly united against China. Or, even in the face of such unity, he
may calculate his country is strong enough to withstand any sanctions that may
be forthcoming.
Chinese military concerns
There is another, direct military, concern.
Beijing insists that a country’s sovereignty is inviolable and says it would
never interfere in the governance of another state. Many security officials
consider that position laughable and that is posited only as a smokescreen to
keep international attention – and the US Navy’s Pacific Fleet – away from
Taiwan.
Nevertheless, China expects that policy to be honoured and knows any change it
adopts over Ukraine will dent the power of its argument over non-interference in
any future action regarding Taiwan. So just as China wants the global snowdome
to settle and for peace to return to Europe – albeit a peace in Beijing’s
economic favour that has nothing to do with respect for Ukraine’s borders – it
knows any decision to arm Russia will have far-reaching consequences. President
Xi may have anticipated the diplomatic and economic fallout from his country’s
military support for Russia, but decided it was manageable and worth the risk to
increase both Moscow’s dependence on, and the West’s fear of, Beijing.
Putin: NATO Taking Part in Ukraine Conflict
with Arms Supplies
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 February, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused NATO members of taking part in the
Ukraine conflict by donating arms to the country and said the West planned to
break up Russia. "They are sending tens of billions of dollars in weapons to
Ukraine. This really is participation," Putin said in an interview with the
Rossiya-1 channel aired on Sunday."This means that they are taking part, albeit
indirectly, in the crimes being carried out by the Kyiv regime," Putin said. He
said Western countries had "a single aim -- to break up the former Soviet Union
and its main part -- the Russian Federation". "Only then will they maybe accept
us in the so-called family of civilized peoples but only separately, every part
separately." Putin was speaking on the sidelines of a patriotic concert in
Moscow on Thursday on the eve of the first anniversary of the start of Russia's
full-scale offensive in Ukraine, AFP said. In the interview, Putin also
reiterated his calls for a multipolar world and said he had "no doubt" that this
would happen. "What are we against? Against the fact that this new world that is
taking shape is being built only in the interests of just one country, the
United States.""Now that their attempts to re-configure the world in their own
likeness after the fall of the Soviet Union have led to this situation, we are
obliged to react."
Drone footage shows Bakhmut devastated by Russian forces
Billal Rahman/The Independent/February 26, 2023
Drone footage shows the extensive damage in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which
has seen some of the worst fighting during the Russian invastion.
Video published by Russia’s RIA news agency on Sunday, 26 February shows the
devastated city.
It has been the scene of multiple fierce battles between the Ukrainian army and
the Russian military.
The months-long struggle for Bakhmut, where roughly 5,000 residents remain, has
seen some of the bloodiest combat during Russia’s brutal invasion. Wagner Group
leader and Russian mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed his forces have captured
more settlements around Bakhmut. The Ukrainian army says attacks were
continuing, citing “unsuccessful offensives” near six settlements, including
Yahidne and Berkhivka, in the Donetsk region, which Moscow claims to have
annexed. Russia has made progress towards encircling Bakhmut but failed to
capture it in time to deliver a victory for President Vladimir Putin to announce
on Friday’s anniversary of his invasion. Bakhmut was home to 70,000 people
before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Battle of Bakhmut is an ongoing
series of military engagements in and near the city of Bakhmut during the larger
battle for Donbas. Shelling of Bakhmut began in May 2022, however, the main
military assault towards the city started on 1 August after Russian forces
advanced. The main assault force primarily consists of mercenaries from the
Russian paramilitary organization Wagner Group, supported by Russian troops and
DPR and LPR separatist groups.
Palestinian gunman kills 2 Israelis in West
Bank, Israeli officials say
RAMALLAH, West Bank (Reuters)/Sun, February 26, 2023
A Palestinian gunman killed two Israeli brothers as they were driving in the
occupied West Bank on Sunday, Israeli officials said. There was no immediate
claim of responsibility for the attack, which came as Israeli and Palestinian
security officials met in Jordan to discuss ways of lowering tensions. Israel's
military said the gunman came to a junction "and opened fire towards an Israeli
vehicle." Medical officials said the casualties near Hawara, an area that sees
regular friction between Palestinians and settlers, were brothers in their
twenties. A settlements spokesperson said they were residents of Har Bracha, a
settlement 8 km (5 miles) away. "Soldiers are pursuing the terrorists and are
blocking the area," the Israeli army said in a statement.
Aqaba Meeting: Israelis, Palestinians Pledge
to Curb Violence
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 February, 2023
Israel committed to stop authorization of any settler outposts in the occupied
West Bank for six months during a meeting on Sunday with Palestinian officials
in Jordan when the sides pledged to prevent more violence. In a joint statement
at the end of a meeting in the Red Sea resort of Aqaba, Israeli and Palestinian
officials said that after "thorough and frank discussions" they would work
closely to prevent "further violence" and "reaffirmed the necessity of
committing to de-escalation on the ground". Host nation Jordan, along with Egypt
and the United States, considered "these understandings as major progress
towards re-establishing and deepening relations between the two sides," the
statement said. The meeting brought together top Israeli and Palestinian
security chiefs for the first time in many years, officials said, and aimed to
restore calm in Israel, the Israeli-occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Israel and the Palestinian Authority "confirmed their joint readiness and
commitment to immediately work to end unilateral measures for a period of 3-6
months," the statement said. "This includes an Israeli commitment to stop
discussion of any new settlement units for four months and to stop authorization
of any outposts for six months," the statement said. The participants also
agreed to meet again in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt in March. "The participants
stressed the importance of the Aqaba meeting, the first of its kind in years,"
the statement said. "They agreed to continue meeting under this formula,
maintain positive momentum and expand this agreement towards wider political
process leading to a just and lasting peace." US President Joe Biden’s Middle
East adviser Brett McGurk is attending, along with Jordanian and Egyptian
officials. Jordan's King Abdullah II met McGurk and stressed "the importance of
intensifying efforts to push for calm, de-escalation in the Palestinian
territories, and stopping any unilateral measures that would destabilize
stability and undermine the chances of achieving peace," a royal court statement
said.
Jordan King Tells McGurk of Urgent Need to Reduce
Escalation
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 February, 2023
Jordan's King Abdullah II told US President Joe Biden's top Middle East advisor
attending an Israeli-Palestinian meeting on Sunday that efforts should be
intensified to bring "calm and reduce escalation" in Palestinian territories,
state media reported. Brett McGurk attended the meeting in the Red Sea port of
Aqaba hosted by Jordan that brought Israeli and Palestinian security chiefs
together for the first time in many years, along with representatives of key
regional parties. Earlier this month, King Abdullah met Biden and held talks
with McGurk in which the United States warned of the threats to regional
security and lobbied for a resumption of stalled US-sponsored talks on
Palestinian statehood.
Senior Arab parliamentarians in Syria for talks with Assad
Arab News/February 27, 2023
JEDDAH: A delegation of senior Arab parliamentarians met with Syrian President
Bashar Assad in Damascus on Sunday, another sign of thawing ties after more than
a decade of isolation over the conflict in Syria. The heads of the Iraqi,
Jordanian, Palestinian, Libyan, Egyptian and UAE houses of representatives, as
well as representatives from Oman and Lebanon, traveled to Syria as part of a
delegation from the Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union. They met with Syrian
parliamentarians and with Assad, according to pro-regime news agency SANA. “We
cannot do without Syria and Syria cannot do without its Arab environment, which
we hope it can return to,” said Iraqi parliament Speaker Mohammed Halbousi.
Syria was largely isolated from the rest of the Arab world following Assad’s
deadly crackdown against protests that erupted against his rule in 2011.The Arab
League suspended Syria’s membership in 2011 and many Arab countries pulled their
envoys out of Damascus. But Assad has benefited from an outpouring of support
from Arab states following the devastating earthquake on Feb. 6, which killed
more than 5,900 people across his country, according to a tally of UN and Syrian
government figures.
Donors have included Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The UAE sent more aid-loaded
planes than any other nation, including Russia and Iran. Egypt’s President Abdul
Fattah El-Sisi spoke with Assad by phone for the first time on Feb. 7 and
Jordan’s foreign minister made his first trip to Damascus on Feb. 15.
Assad then traveled to Oman on Feb. 20 — the first time he left Syria since the
quake. Assad’s 2022 visit to the UAE was his first trip to an Arab state since
the 2011 outbreak of war. The lawmakers’ visit follows a mini-summit in Baghdad
that affirmed the Arab League’s intentions of having Syria return to the
organization despite the war. Egypt’s parliament Speaker Hanafy El-Gebaly said
in Damascus that the Arab delegation was “visiting brotherly Syria to support
the Syrian people” after the quake. He cited the joint statement from the
Baghdad meeting about the need to begin the process of “bringing Syria back to
the Arab fold.”
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on February 26-27/2023
Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die
Szu Ping Chan/The Telegraph/February 26, 2023
https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/russia-stares-population-abyss-putin-060000650.h
Dmitry Nechaev bought a one-way ticket from Moscow to Tel Aviv a year ago.
Two days into Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the 38-year-old businessman
abandoned his apartment in the Russian capital and travelled to Israel, leaving
his wife, children and dog behind.
Within days, Visa and Mastercard suspended their services in Russia, blocking
his cards and preventing him from buying plane tickets for his family. His wife
had already got rid of many of their belongings in a fire sale, including their
country house and camper van in a bid to raise cash quickly.
In the end, a few phone calls and a friend's bank account in the United Arab
Emirates saved the day. The price of five one-way tickets from Russia to Israel
for his family? $10,000. "Believe it or not, that was cheap," he says.
In Moscow, he sold high-end titanium bikes internationally. Now, he is making
ends meet driving a van in Haifa, northern Israel.
Yet Nechaev is upbeat - he got out.
"There's a joke among Russians now," he says. "Normally when you get on a plane,
everyone claps their hands when the aeroplane lands. In Russia, people clap when
the plane takes off."
Hundreds of thousands of working age Russians have left the country or died on
the battlefield since Putin declared war on Ukraine. Ukraine says its soldiers
have killed more than 100,000 Russians, while the Kremlin puts it closer to
10,000.
The numbers may be disputed, but the trends are clear: Russia is facing a
demographic time bomb that will make it harder to wage war and, in the long run,
keep its ailing economy going.
Sending waves of young men onto the battlefield, compounded by emigration, will
result in tens of thousands of fewer births and hasten an already long-term
decline in birth rates.
Alexey Raksha, an independent Russian demographer, says the Russian battlefield
casualty numbers may not sound a lot for a country of 145 million people, but he
believes the war will leave deep scars on an already fragile economy.
"If there are no soldiers, it means there are no men. No men, no sex. No sex, no
children. It's very simple," he says. "But we also don't know what the
psychological impact is going to be on these people, which will also cause the
number of births to decline."
Experts believe Russia may see fewer than 1.2 million births this year if
military operations continue in the coming months. This would be the lowest in
modern history, according to Igor Efremov, a researcher at the Gaidar Institute
in Moscow.
A separate estimate by Mikhail Denisenko, director of the Institute of
Demography in Moscow, suggests a year of military service for the 300,000 men
mobilised into the army last September and October will lead to 25,000 fewer
births.
As well as dying soldiers, talented Russians have been fleeing the country in
their droves. Thousands of Russian women have travelled abroad to give birth.
Argentina has seen a surge in births due to visa-free entry for Russians, whose
children automatically acquire citizenship, making it easier for their parents
to get it too. An Argentine passport allows holders to enter 171 countries
visa-free, compared to 87 for Russians.
Others have escaped via Kazakhstan, where many have set up bank accounts and
moved on. Turkey, Georgia and Armenia have also seen a huge influx of Russians,
while US customs and border protection data show more than 20,000 Russians have
tried to enter the US since last October via the Mexican border. Many Ukrainians
- sometimes forcibly - have also moved to Russia over the course of the war,
with migration statistics suggesting the overall number decline in the
population may be modest.
But while young Russians have been moving out, it's mainly older citizens moving
in, according to Raksha, who recently fled Moscow himself.
"On the face of it, things are not that bad, because compared with the 800,000
or so people who have left the country fleeing from the war, Russia has also
taken in around one million Ukrainians. But the age, sex and educational
structure of those who emigrated and those who immigrated are completely
different.
"So mostly young, educated, high-earning men left the country and mostly women
with children and elderly people came to the country as refugees from the war.
“While overall migration could be positive, we don't know by how much. But we do
know that the economic impact will be very negative because of the number of
young people who have left, and continue for decades to come.”
A country that was already facing huge challenges is now staring into a
demographic abyss.
Collapsing population
UN population projections updated last year show Russia's population is already
long past its peak.
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought with it a decline in birth
rates and fertility that has seen the population drift slowly down ever since.
There were 148.5 million people in what became Russia after the fall of the
USSR. It fell by more than five million over the next decade, before an
intervention by Putin's government in 2007 that paid mothers the equivalent of
thousands of pounds to have more children helped push up birth rates.
"In some ways, Russia was in a better position than other eastern European
countries," says Raksha. "They have free movement within the European Union, so
many young people in those countries left. But Russians never had the same
opportunities, so outward migration is not that high and has never been."
The war has changed this dynamic. Faced with a choice between isolation and
starting again, many have chosen the latter.
Five of Dmitry Nechaev’s employees ended up cycling across the Georgian border
and through Turkey for three days on the bikes they'd helped to weld after
Russia declared a partial mobilisation of military reservists last September.
The UN numbers, which have not been fully adjusted to account for the war,
already painted a bleak picture prior to the invasion.
80pc of the country’s population were of working age in the 1990s but that is
forecast to fall to around 60pc in the 2050s because of declining birth rates
and an ageing population.
Meanwhile, the share of Russians aged over 65 is projected to rise from 15pc in
the nineties to 32pc by 2050.
Adjusting for the war presents an even bleaker future.
"Several hundreds of thousands is a massive emigration," notes Raksha. "If you
combine all the factors - the hit to incomes that the fleeing of young men and
mobilisation will cause and the psychological shock - together Russia will
probably see a 10pc decline in births in 2023. “That's going to have a big
impact on the economy in 20 years when these people come of age.”
History suggests the impact of war on a country's demography lasts for decades,
Raksha says.
"Look at Japan and Italy. These countries lost the Second World War alongside
Germany. And you know what? In the last 40 years, the oldest countries in the
world have been first Germany, then Italy, and then Japan. What does it mean? It
means that if you lose a war, your fertility after that will be low for
decades."
'Return to the motherland'
There aren't many things that keep Putin awake at night, but Russia's
demographic decline is one of them. A growing population has always been seen by
the Russian leader as the mark of a prosperous country.
"From the economic point of view, the demographic problem is one of the most
important,” he said in 2021.
If current demographic trends continue in Russia, there will be 30 million fewer
people living in the country by the end of the century. That stark reality
prompted Putin to order the government to draw up a package of measures this
year to increase birth rates and "strengthen our statehood".
The Russian president remained as defiant as ever last week in a State of the
Nation speech in which he railed against the West for the best part of two
hours. While he didn't reveal any new pro-natalist policies, there were plenty
of threats.
Putin urged Russian citizens to return to the "motherland" instead of being
treated like "second-class" citizens in Europe or other countries.
"Everyone must know that the sources of their prosperity and their future can
only be here, in their native country Russia.
“I would like those who have come up against the predatory mores of the West to
hear what I have to say: running around with cap-in-hand, begging for your own
money makes no sense, and most importantly, it accomplishes nothing, especially
now that you realise who you are dealing with. “Stop clinging to the past,
resorting to the courts to get at least something back. Change your lives and
your jobs, because you are strong people," he said in his annual address to the
Federal Assembly. Observers say young Russians are unlikely to return to a life
of military service.
Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, warned in a recent blog post that proposals to change the age at which
Russian men are conscripted for mandatory military service from 18 to 21 years
old, and increasing the upper age limit for conscription from 27 to 30 years
old, will mean "young men being called up after earning their college degrees,
and trained specialists being pulled out of the job market to have their skills
voided by military service".
The impact on the Russian economy is already evident. Analysis by Moody's last
week showed the sectors "most reliant on foreign components and investment like
car manufacturing have already seen a dramatic drop in production".
Putin's embrace of autarky will force the Kremlin to spend ever greater sums
propping up its flagging national economy. State spending already accounts for
33pc of gross domestic product (GDP) and 50pc of formal employment, according to
the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which last conducted an in-depth
evaluation in 2019.
While the world is taking longer than expected to wean itself off the country's
oil, helping the country to stave off a deep recession, fossil fuel revenues
will eventually fall. That will make propping up activity harder and harder.
Moody’s says: "Similarly, bans on the export of refining technologies and new
foreign investment in Russia's energy sector will make it harder for Russia to
upgrade its oil refineries."
Moscow has been pivoting East since the war. Many barrels of oil that used to
find their way to Germany, Italy and other places in Europe are now heading to
China, Turkey and India at cut prices.
This is supporting growth, but has also forced the Kremlin to raid its war chest
of savings.
"Even before the imposition of severe new sanctions, Russia's growth potential
faced significant headwinds from chronically low investment, a very weak
business climate and challenging demographics," Moody's highlights. It believes
the economy will shrink 3pc this year, which would be the worst recession since
the financial crisis.
Putin's speech talked about creating a "strong and self-sufficient economy" by
supporting "enterprises and jobs, schools and universities, science and
healthcare, culture and sports. In this way, you will increase your wealth and
will also win the respect and gratitude of the people for a generation ahead.
The state and society will certainly support you," he said.
But Raksha, who used to work at Russia's statistics office before he was fired
for criticising its handling of Covid data, says the war has changed the outlook
for many Russians, including himself.
"Nobody knows what Putin will do," he says. "He may just push the red button and
we're all gone."
The 44 year-old says he's glad he has no wife, girlfriend or children, casually
adding that he sold his apartment and is using the money to travel around the
world.
Even if the war doesn't end in nuclear oblivion, Russia's prospects remain
bleak, he adds.
"Russia is now in the middle of a downward decline where the number of women of
primary productive age will decline by 40pc between 2010 to 2030. Even without
the war, the number of births would have declined. The war will just accelerate
this process, but nobody knows by how much at the moment."
Raksha believes that in the worst case scenario, the population could start
declining by 1 million people every year.
"People will leave, people will die," he says. "So Russia will become depleted
of young men and women over a number of years, and it will be quite old by then.
I think economic growth even in the best of scenarios will just stop because of
that."
Russia's isolation will mean it will not be able to procure microchips and other
new technologies, precisely the sort of technology required to drive economic
growth in the decades ahead.
"Russia is going to become like Iran," says Alexander Gabuev at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, but without its youthful population.
Raksha adds: "In the worst scenario, almost all the world will live better and
better lives, and Russians probably will live the same as 10 or 20 years ago,
and the difference will grow and grow and it will be noticeable in terms of
living standards."
'The new Iran'
Entrepreneur Dmitry Nechaev says he's spoken to hundreds of Russians who have
fled the country. None with the intention of ever returning.
"These are IT people, engineers, coders, project managers. They are scientists,
artists, and actors. Like me, they were paying the taxes, they were spending
money, they had several children. Neither the VAT or income tax is going to
Russia any more. It's all elsewhere now.
"This is what my country has lost and other countries have gained. There are so
many people who have had to leave their jobs and get new ones and many are very
well educated and experienced enough that they got them pretty quickly."
Nechaev, now reunited with his wife and two children, aged eight and ten years,
says he's accepted that they will grow up in Israel.
"Most of the people I meet are in their mid-thirties," he says. Going back will
mean them returning in their forties. “That's too much hassle for a family who's
started again. There's little reason for anyone to go back."
Nechaev is reestablishing his company, Triton Bikes, in Portugal with a fellow
Russian he met during his escape from the country.
It took some creative thinking to reunite Nechaev with some of the belongings he
couldn't carry on the plane, including tools and a beloved beige Land Rover.
"February 2022 was a really, really hard month," he recalls. "I could hardly
sleep and work. I was just doom scrolling. I knew it wasn't going to end well."
Today, he feels positive about the future. His employees are all back together
again. They've chosen Portugal because his staff, who all have Russian
passports, can start work as tourists without having to wait for work permits.
Dmitry hopes the suppliers and customers he once worked with will quickly
return.
"We've already bought all the machines, we are installing the tooling and we've
brought all the materials again."
Nechaev admits he misses Russia, but says that the feeling of safety outweighs
any home sickness.
"I feel a lot safer now. And I can say whatever I want. I would never talk like
this with you if I was in Russia, I would be too scared."
Demographer Raksha also has no plans to return. He speaks to colleagues every
day who say they need him to go back to design the policies that will help to
increase the population and rebuild the country.
But he remains defiant. "I sold my apartment because it could be my last year,"
he says. "I'm doing things that I want to do. I'm just spending money. It could
be my last year of life. So why not? There is no future in Russia."
Their Hair Long and Flowing or in Ponytails,
Women in Iran Flaunt Their Locks
Farnaz Fassihi/The New York Times/February 26/2023
An engineer strode onstage at an event in Tehran, Iran, wearing tight pants and
a stylish shirt, and clutching a microphone in one hand. Her long brown hair,
tied in a ponytail, swung freely behind her, uncovered, in open defiance of
Iran’s strict hijab law.
“I am Zeinab Kazempour,” she told the convention of Iran’s professional
association of engineers. She condemned the group for supporting the hijab
rules, and then she marched offstage, removing a scarf from around her neck and
tossing it to the floor under a giant image of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei.
The packed auditorium erupted in cheers, claps and whistles. A video of
Kazempour went viral on social media and local news sites, making her the latest
champion for many Iranians in a growing, open challenge to the hijab law.
Women have resisted the law, uncovering their hair an inch or a strand at a
time, since it went into effect two years after the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
But since the death last year of Mahsa Amini, 22, while in the custody of the
country’s morality police, women and girls have been at the center of a
nationwide uprising, demanding an end not only to hijab requirements but to the
Islamic Republic itself.
Women are suddenly flaunting their hair: left long and flowing in the malls;
tied in a bun on the streets; styled into bobs on public transportation; and
pulled into ponytails at schools and on university campuses, according to
interviews with women in Iran as well as photographs and videos online. Although
these acts of defiance are rarer in more conservative areas, they are
increasingly being seen in towns and cities.
“I have not worn a scarf for months — I don’t even carry it with me anymore,”
said Kimia, 23, a graduate student in the Kurdish city of Sanandaj, in western
Iran, who, like other women interviewed for this article, asked that her surname
not be used for fear of retribution.
Kimia said that many female students at her college did not cover their hair
even in classrooms in the presence of male professors. “Whether the government
likes to admit it or not,” she said, “the era of the forced hijab is over.”
Iran’s hijab law mandates that women and girls older than 9 cover their hair and
that they hide the curves of their bodies under long, loose robes.
Many women still adhere to the rule in public, some by choice and others from
fear. Videos of the traditional bazaar in downtown Tehran, the capital, for
example, show most women covering their hair.
But videos of parks, cafes, restaurants and malls — places popular with younger
women — show more of them uncovered. Many prominent women, including celebrities
and athletes, have removed their hijab in Iran and while representing the
country abroad.
The state has long promoted the hijab law as a symbol of its success in
establishing the Islamic Republic, but enforcement has varied, depending on
which political faction was in power.
After the election in 2021 of Ebrahim Raisi, a hard-liner, as president, the
rules have been increasingly enforced, and with a strictness and brutality that
have enraged Iranian women, many of whom were fined, beaten or arrested by the
morality police after they were said to be in violation.
But anger over the law boiled over in September, when Amini died in the custody
of the morality police and as the street protests that broke out across Iran
quickly morphed into broader calls for an end to being ruled by the country’s
clerics.
The protests have largely fizzled amid a violent crackdown by authorities that
has included mass arrests, death sentences and the executions of four young
protesters.
But many acts of civil disobedience continue daily, including chanting “death to
the dictator” from rooftops, writing graffiti on walls, and tearing down and
setting ablaze government banners.
And women have been going out in public without their hijabs.
Officials said in December they had disbanded the morality police, and they have
not been seen on the streets since. For the moment, authorities are only
occasionally enforcing the hijab rules, according to women and activists in
Iran.
Authorities recently shut down two pharmacies — one in Tehran and another in the
northern city of Amol — after female employees were reported for not wearing a
hijab. And in the religious city of Qom, they reprimanded the manager of a bank
for catering to clients without hijabs. The judiciary has also opened a case
against Kazempour, according to Iranian news reports.
Officials say they are reviewing the enforcement rules and plan to announce
updated measures. One conservative lawmaker has said alternative enforcement
methods are being considered, such as warning women by text message, denying
them civic services or blocking their bank accounts.
“Headscarves will be back on women’s heads,” the lawmaker, Hossein Jalali, was
reported as saying in December on Iranian media.
But the defiance remains too widespread to contain and too pervasive to reverse,
women’s rights activists say.
“The core and heart of this movement is really the revolutionary act of these
women turning their headscarves into the most effective and most powerful weapon
against religious dictatorship and deep layers of misogyny and patriarchy,” said
Fatemeh Shams, a women’s rights activist and an assistant professor of Persian
literature at the University of Pennsylvania.
The women who have stopped covering their hair say that they are determined to
do as they wish, but that they are in favor of a “voluntary hijab.” They also
say they respect the rights of women who choose wear scarves.
Leila, 51, who lives in Tehran, said she and her teenage daughter had been
dressing in public as they did in private and when they traveled abroad — in
dresses, skirts, skinny jeans and tight sweaters.
“I recently had to travel and struggled over whether I should wear the hijab at
the airport because there are a lot of security agents, but decided against it,”
Leila said in a telephone interview. She was stunned to see that the majority of
the women at the airport that day had also ditched their hijabs. “We all got
through security and passport control with our hair uncovered, and they said
nothing. Our power is in numbers.”
Hathis, 25, who reviews books and movies online, posted a photograph of herself
on Instagram in December sitting, hair uncovered, with a friend at an outdoor
cafe in Tehran. “Is this what it feels like to feel the cool fall breeze blow
through your hair? And for 25 years I was denied this?”
Even many religious women who wear a hijab by choice have joined the campaign to
repeal the law. A petition with thousands of names and photographs of women is
circulating on Instagram and Twitter with the message, “I wear the hijab, but I
am against the compulsory hijab.”
Maryam, 53, who observes the hijab law and lives in Tehran, recently traveled
with her daughter to the holiday island of Kish in the Persian Gulf. They were
surprised to find most women wearing short-sleeved sun dresses, sandals, capri
pants and T-shirts. “Are we in Turkey or Iran?” asked her daughter, Narges, 26.
Shortly after the trip, Narges changed all of her social media profile photos to
one in which her long brown hair was flowing over her shoulders and her fist was
raised in the air. It announced to her religious conservative family that she
was taking off her hijab.
“I will never bring down my fist until freedom, even if we have to wait for many
years,” Narges wrote on her Instagram page.
Maryam said in an interview that she was flooded with messages and calls from
relatives and friends, some supportive and some critical of her daughter.
“I told them that times have changed,” she said. “I respect my daughter’s choice
and so should you. It’s nobody’s business.”
© 2023 The New York Times Company
China Crosses "Red Line" Advancing Russia's
War Effort
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/February 26, 2023
It has been known for quite a while that China has been undercutting Western
sanctions against Russia.... and in their own national currencies. When,
however, it was recently reported that "China is providing technology that
Moscow's military needs," including "navigation equipment, jamming technology
and jet-fighter parts," the move seemed to take the Biden administration by
surprise.
China has already supplied significant military aid in the form of dual-use
products that have both civil and military uses, including semiconductors used
in a wide variety of weapons including fighter jets, helicopters, drones and
guided missiles.
US ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield was even more
explicit: If China provided lethal military aid to Russia, she said, it would
cross a "red line."
It is highly questionable at this stage whether the Chinese will pay any heed to
Blinken's or Thomas-Greenfield's warnings: In March 2022, the Biden
administration delivered similarly worded threats to China -- that helping
Russia evade sanctions would lead to "consequences." China did exactly that; a
year later, "consequences" have yet to be seen.
These revelations are not only an embarrassment for the Biden administration --
which should have known and acted upon them long ago -- but also serve as yet
another black hole in the ability of the United States to deter adversaries.
It shows, sadly, that the words and threats of the US carry zero weight
internationally, and that America's most aggressive adversaries are able
successfully to collaborate.
China has recently been supplying significant military aid to Russia in the form
of dual-use products, including semiconductors used weapons including fighter
jets, helicopters, drones and guided missiles. Pictured: Russian President
Vladimir Putin meets with Wang Yi, China's senior diplomat, in Moscow on
February 22, 2023. (Photo by Anton Novoderezhkin/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)
It has been known for quite a while that China has been undercutting Western
sanctions against Russia through trade and Chinese purchases of long-term energy
supplies.
Twenty days before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia and China declared a
"no-limits" partnership, and have steadily been increasing trade with each other
ever since -- and in their own national currencies. When, however, it was
recently reported that "China is providing technology that Moscow's military
needs," including "navigation equipment, jamming technology and jet-fighter
parts," the move seemed to take the Biden administration by surprise.
China is "considering" what US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called "lethal"
support to Russia, as he said in an interview with CBS on February 19. Asked
what was meant by "lethal support," Blinken replied, "Weapons... There's a whole
gamut of things that fit in that category, everything from ammunition to the
weapons themselves."
It would appear, however, that China is doing a lot more than merely
"considering" lethal support to Russia. China has already supplied significant
military aid in the form of dual-use products that have both civil and military
uses, including semiconductors used in a wide variety of weapons including
fighter jets, helicopters, drones and guided missiles. According to Maria
Shagina, of the International Institute of Strategic Studies:
"There is evidence that China is the biggest exporter of semiconductors -- often
through shell companies in Hong Kong and the UAE -- to Russia. Some Chinese
companies are also supplying civilian drones, exploiting the grey space between
military and civilian purposes."
Already in July 2022, information was surfacing that Chinese exports of
semiconductors to Russia had more than doubled in just the first five months of
the year, while Chinese shipments of aluminum oxide, used to make aluminum,
vital in weapons production, were 400 times higher than in the previous year.
A recent report by the Wall Street Journal showed that, in addition to exporting
semiconductors, Chinese state-owned defense companies have been shipping
navigation equipment for Russia's M-17 military transport helicopters, and $1.2
million worth of parts for Russia's Su-35 jet fighters. China has also sent the
Russians drones that they used to locate Ukrainian forces to target them with
artillery.
According to Naomi Garcia, an analyst at Center for Advanced Defense Studies, a
US nonprofit that specializes in identifying national-security threats:
"Despite international scrutiny and sanctions protocols, reliable global trade
data shows that Chinese state-owned defense companies continue to send
military-applicable parts to sanctioned Russian defense companies. These Russian
companies have been recorded using these same types of parts directly in
Russia's war in Ukraine."
Blinken raised the issue of the Chinese Communist Party's lethal support for
Russia when he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, at the Munich Security
Conference in mid-February.
"The secretary was quite blunt in warning about the implications and
consequences of China providing material support to Russia or assisting Russia
with systematic sanctions evasion," a senior State Department official commented
about the meeting.
US ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield was even more
explicit: If China provided lethal military aid to Russia, she said, it would
cross a "red line."
It is highly questionable at this stage whether the Chinese will pay any heed to
Blinken's or Thomas-Greenfield's warnings: In March 2022, the Biden
administration delivered similarly worded threats to China -- that helping
Russia evade sanctions would lead to "consequences." China did exactly that; a
year later, "consequences" have yet to be seen.
Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden's National Security Adviser, said in March
2022:
"We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing, that there will absolutely
be consequences for large-scale sanctions evasion efforts or support to Russia
to backfill them. We will not allow that to go forward and allow there to be a
lifeline to Russia from these economic sanctions from any country, anywhere in
the world."
In September 2022, China and Russia agreed "on further military cooperation with
a focus on joint exercises and patrols, as well as on strengthening contacts
between the General Staffs."
In December, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave instructions to strengthen
economic ties with Russia. China has also been collaborating with Russia on
large-scale military exercises. In December, the two countries held joint
live-fire naval exercises, known as Maritime Cooperation 2022 -– a yearly event
since 2012 -- in the East China Sea.
On February 14, the Russia Navy frigate Admiral Gorshkov, reportedly armed with
Zircon hypersonic missiles, arrived in Cape Town, South Africa, for a 10-day
joint military exercise. According to the Russian state-owned news agency TASS,
the Admiral Gorshkov "will perform a training launch of a Tsirkon (Zircon)
hypersonic missile during a joint exercise with South African and Chinese
navies."
On the political level, China's senior diplomat, Wang Yi, arrived in Moscow on
the eve of the one-year anniversary of the invasion, February 21, in a show of
support for Russia. Wang met with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Nikolai
Patrushev, the head of Russia's Security Council and President Vladimir Putin,
saying that China would continue to work to "strengthen and deepen the
Sino-Russian friendship."
"No matter how the international situation changes, China has been and remains
willing to maintain the positive trend with Russia in building a new type of
cooperative relationship between major powers...
"Sino-Russian relations are mature and solid as a rock, and will withstand the
test of the changing international situation...
"We are ready, together with the Russian side, in accordance with top-level
agreements, to resolutely defend national interests and dignity, and promote
mutually beneficial cooperation in all areas."
Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Putin in the coming months.
It should come as no surprise that in addition to all this extremely public
cooperation, China has also been secretly exporting military components for
Russia's war effort in Ukraine -- especially since the US threat of
"consequences" for China's evasions of Western sanctions exposed itself as
hollow.
These revelations are not only an embarrassment for the Biden administration --
which should have known and acted upon them long ago -- but also serve as yet
another black hole in the ability of the United States to deter adversaries.
It shows, sadly, that the words and threats of the US carry zero weight
internationally, and that America's most aggressive adversaries are able
successfully to collaborate.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished
Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The Damascus Meeting
Tariq Al-Homayed/i/Asharq Al Awsat/February 26/2023
Some media outlets heavily reported the news of the “first Israeli raid” in
Syria after the devastating earthquake, emphasizing civilian casualties. A few
days ago, Reuters published an exclusive report about the raid last Sunday that
presented the story differently.
Several security and intelligence officials, including some working for the
Assadi regime itself, told Reuters that the strike targeted a meeting between
Iranian and Syrian military experts and Hezbollah forces that was held in the
neighborhood of Kafr Sousse.
According to Reuters, the strike targeted Iranians taking part in a meeting
between technical experts in an Iranian military complex located in the basement
of a residential building. Those in attendance had been planning to discuss a
secret IRGC-run program to produce precision-guided missiles.
Reuters quoted a source close to the regime as saying that the attack targeted a
gathering that brought together Syrian and Iranian technical experts who work on
manufacturing drones. It left an engineer from the army dead and seriously
wounded another from the IRGC, while two others from the IRGC survived.
The Kafr Sousse neighborhood in Damascus is a heavily surveilled area where
several Iranian security agencies, as well as an Iranian cultural center, are
based. The Israelis assassinated the Hezbollah terrorist Imad Mughniyeh there in
2008.
Thus, it is clear that this Damascus meeting did not bring Iranian, Syrian, and
Hezbollah officials to discuss how to provide relief to the victims of the
devastating earthquake or how to protect and provide welfare to the Syrian
victims. Rather, developing guided missiles and drones was the agenda.
These drones, as the world has seen, are not used to defend Lebanon or Iran’s
borders. Indeed, the Houthis use them to target Saudi territory, and they are
used to strike civilians in Ukraine, in the heart of Europe.
This meeting in Damascus was not organized to discuss ways to crystalize the
“attempts” by some in the Arab world to open up to the Assad regime, nor was the
intention to discuss reconstruction projects in Syria. Instead, this meeting
announced that Damascus is a hub for merchants of battles and militias.
It is untenable to claim that the Assad regime had not been aware of the meeting
to discuss the secret program to produce guided missiles and drones. In fact, if
this were true, it would raise a bigger question: who runs things in Damascus?
Who actually governs it?
Amid increasing talk about the need to fill the void in Syria and the importance
of not leaving it to Iran, another question arises. Who is ready to hold an
investment or humanitarian workshop next to an Iranian meeting to discuss the
manufacture of precision-guided missiles and drones attended by Hezbollah?
Are these “few” willing to fight battles with militias in areas brimming with
merchants of war and drug smugglers, who have been taking these drugs across the
borders with Jordan or Lebanon?
Of course, no one wants Syria to continue to collapse. However, there are no
simple solutions to this crisis, and “well-meaning” initiatives will not solve
it either. Fixing things will require very hard work, and we must remember that
the Syria we had known is a thing of the past until further notice. Saving it
requires a miracle, and this is not an era of miracles.
The Republic of Fear: 20 Years After
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/February 26/2023
In his picaresque novel “Twenty Years After”, a sequel to “Three Musketeers”,
French novelist Alexandre Dumas muses on the theme of “the benevolent despot” as
a rampart against unbridled change that could lead to savage turbulences.
In Arabic folklore 20 years represents a generation, a marking point for
reviewing the past in the hope of drawing lessons for the future. The first day
of the next spring, 20 March, the 20th anniversary of the Iraq war provides an
opportunity for the kind of flashback that Athos, one of Duma’s characters in
the novel, uses for judging past events.
Well, without beating around the bush, no pun intended, let’s see if today we
see the war that toppled Saddam Hussein the same way we did two decades ago. I
must remind you that in 2003 I firmly believed that without removing Saddam from
power, Iraq would remain stuck in the cul-de-sac created by almost half a
century of rule by a small elite of security-military figures of which Saddam
was the most prominent and the last avatar.
I first met and interviewed Saddam in 1975 when he invited me to lunch at his
residence in Baghdad. The residence was a modest villa and nothing like the
sumptuous palaces that he later built for himself. But Saddam himself was
anything but modest.
He talked of the “great things” that Iraq was supposed to do just as “our
glorious Babylonian and Arab ancestors” had done. Mesopotamia had been the
birthplace of civilization and the first chunk of the earth to develop urban
life. In the 7th century, Arabs counted for under a million souls and yet
succeeded in defeating the two great empires of the time. What was remarkable in
his narrative was that while he spoke of “ancestors who did great things” he
seemed to have a low opinion of the here-and-now Iraqis and Arabs in general.
The subtext was that it was he and he alone who would have to do all those great
things that he talked about. In subsequent meetings with him including time
spent with him and his entourage in Tehran and Mashhad I learned that he held
his closest aides with utter contempt. He and he alone was the providential man,
the knight in shining armor riding his white horse beyond glorious horizons.
At the time I saw him as something of a romantic struck by acute narcissism. It
was after his demise that I learned that he had been a failed novelist just
Stalin had been a failed priest, Hitler a failed painter, Mao Zedong a failed
poet, and Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeini a failed theologian.
On the eve of the US-led invasion in 2003, there was much talk of imposing
democracy on Iraq by force. At the time in several articles, I questioned that
assertion.
However, I believed that force could be used to remove hurdles to democracy.
After all, the use of force had opened the path for Germany to democracy and
Italy. Another Vietnam military intervention had saved Cambodia from further
atrocities by Khmer Rouge while the Tanzanian army had ended Idi Amin’s reign of
terror in Uganda. By the time the US-led invasion had come, Saddam had already
invaded Kuwait in a massacre-and-loot style never known in the Middle East since
medieval times. He had also gassed thousands of Iraqi Kurds in the martyred town
of Halabcheh and used chemical weapons against raw recruits dispatched to war by
his partner in crime Ayatollah Khomeini. But, enough of this litany of woes
against the dead despot. Twenty years later, is Iraq a better place than it was
under Saddam Hussein?
Well, it may not be a better place but is certainly less bad than it was 20
years ago over the past 20 years some four million Iraqis who had fled the
country as refugees have returned home. Today ranks number 14O in the list of
countries producing migrants and refugees. Under Saddam Hussein, it ranked among
the top 10. Even then, most of those leaving Iraq today are from the Kurdish
autonomous area, often young men seeking a better economic future in Europe. At
the same time, Iraq shelters many Syrian refugees.
Neighboring Iran is facing a bigger outflow of refugees, especially highly
educated people, than Iraq.
In the past 20 years life expectancy in Iraq has risen from 67 years in 2002 to
over 75 in 2021. Iraq has also done better, or less bad, in economic terms with
the gross domestic product per head rising to $10,000 from a paltry $2100 in
2002.
The national currency, the dinar, has increased fourfold in value compared to a
basket of major currencies. In the neighboring Islamic Republic, however, the
Iranian currency, the rial, compared to the US$ has fallen to 500,000 for one $1
compared to 70 in 1978.
Despite the increasing shortage of water due to massive dams built in Turkiye,
Iraqi agriculture which had almost died under the fallen despot has made a timid
comeback. In 2021 Iraq was no longer among the countries regarded as
“vulnerable” in terms of food shortages and famine. In terms of political and
social freedoms Iraq also doing better than such neighbors as the Islamic
Republic in Iran and the parts of Syria controlled by the Assad regime.
Facing such deadly challenges as the emergence of ISIS and the attempted Kurdish
secession, post-Saddam Iraq has manifested a degree of resilience more than few
might have expected.
It has also succeeded in frustrating attempts by the Islamic Republic in Tehran
to stall the emergence of an Iraqi national army and the imposition of a militia
state.
The US made many mistakes in Iraq, including the disbanding of the army, the
banning of all Ba’ath Party members, and childish attempts at imposing a market
economy in a highly centralized system.
The pumping of massive quantities of US dollars into Iraq also led to corruption
on a gargantuan scale. Many individual Americans and companies won tickets on
that gravy train while branding Iraqis as genetically prone to corruption.
Today, Iraq is among the top countries where corruption has become a way of life
rather than an exception to the rules of probity. But even then things were
worse under Saddam when corruption benefited small segments of society. Today,
however, corruption is used as a tool of patronage offering a meal ticket to
larger segments of society clustered around individual politicians or ethnic and
religious groups. The war didn’t turn Iraq into a model of democracy. But, as an
Iraqi friend put it the other day, it ended what Kanan Makiyah had called “The
Republic of Fear.”
Daesh and the Hashd enable each other’s war to dominate
Iraq
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/February 27, 2023
Daesh and the militants of Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi in Iraq are two sides of the same
coin: both wallowing in extreme violence, and exploiting each other’s existence
to justify their expansive, extremist agendas. The Hashd’s Iranian masters have
also exploited Daesh and Al-Qaeda in their quest for regional supremacy.
Soon after the creation of Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi in 2014 from existing Iran-backed
militias, these paramilitary forces pushed Daesh out of the strategic town of
Jurf Al-Sakhar. Hashd leader Abu-Mahdi Al-Muhandis oversaw the permanent
expulsion of the town’s Sunni residents, and his “Hezbollah Battalions”
converted the town into his personal fiefdom — establishing illegal detention
and torture camps, and profiting from pilgrimage routes passing near the town,
while controlling routes into southern Baghdad.
Hashd leaders are now explicitly agitating to implement the “Jurf Al-Sakhar
model” across an extensive area of territory to the north of Baghdad, known as
Tarmiyah — one of the few remaining areas where Daesh has been consistently
active in recent months. This follows a major Daesh attack against the military
in Tarmiyah on Feb. 16.
Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi’s fascination with Tarmiyah isn’t coincidental. It straddles
the Euphrates River and the principal northern routes into Baghdad, and so would
deliver to the Hashd some of Iraq’s best agricultural lands, pilgrimage routes,
and a stranglehold over the capital. Iraq’s major highways are already festooned
with illegal Hashd checkpoints, enabling these militias to massively profit from
commercial activities, and significantly raising prices for consumers. Hashd
factions are today among Iraq’s dominant economic actors across the full
spectrum of legal and illegal sectors, rivaling each other for mafia-like
dominance over every inch of Iraqi territory.
So the Hashd’s self-serving solution to the Daesh threat is to forcibly expel
Tarmiyah’s Sunni residents and monopolize the region. Given that the Hashd and
its allies gerrymandered themselves into imposing their choice of government
last year, there may be nobody to stop them.
Since it first came into being, Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi has a long record of using
Daesh as its personal bogeyman — just as Bashar Assad around 2012 successfully
exploited Daesh to divide his enemies and distance the West from the Syrian
arena. Daesh continues to be entrenched in regions where the Hashd exerts
control, in particular rural areas of Nineveh, Salahuddin, Kirkuk and Diyala
provinces.
In a mutual ploy, Daesh has regularly staged indiscriminate attacks in
Shiite-majority areas, which the Hashd has followed up with mass purges and
campaigns of sectarian cleansing against Sunni civilians. Grotesque figures,
such as the Hashd’s Qais Al-Khazali, have routinely used language effectively
calling for the genocide of Sunnis. Sectarian purges by these militias under the
direction of Prime Minister Nouri Al- Maliki around 2013 played a major part in
fueling support for Daesh in facilitating its 2014 takeover of much of the
country.
Both sides have a comparable proclivity for extreme violence. Around 2006, Sunni
extremists and Shiite death squads waged murderous campaigns of sectarian
cleansing throughout Baghdad, slaughtering tens of thousands and causing
countless others to flee. In a single incident on July 9, 2006, Shiite militias
and local police surrounded Baghdad’s Jihad district and massacred dozens of
Sunni citizens — just one of hundreds of such incidents over the years, as these
paramilitaries pursued their relentless quest for dominance of Iraq.
The continuing Iran-fueled instability in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere is
the incubator that will deliver the next generation of global terrorists.
A recent UN report has determined that Al-Qaeda’s new leader Saif Al-Adl is
based in Iran. Tehran has exploited this longstanding presence of Al-Qaeda
personnel on its territory to wield control over the global jihad movement.
During the 1990s, Al-Qaeda mastered the techniques of mass-casualty bombings
learned from Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards. There is evidence that
these parties were jointly complicit in terrorist atrocities, such as a
succession of attacks inside Saudi Arabia during the 1990s and 2000s, so it is
fitting that this IRGC-Al-Qaeda symbiotic relationship continues to the present
day.
Meanwhile, the Hashd’s continuing campaign of terrorism against activists,
journalists and rivals is encapsulated by the recent experience of prominent
Iraqi environmentalist Jassim Al-Asadi, who was seized and tortured by
paramilitaries. Al-Asadi is one of several environmental activists who have been
targeted, apparently as a result of government officials and Hashd elements
collaborating to neutralize critical voices. With Iran and Iraq facing major
water shortages and massive environmental damage, these issues are a matter of
life and death for millions, particularly as Tehran has repeatedly exploited its
control of Iraq’s power grid and water sources to the detriment of its
dysfunctional neighbour.
Human Rights Watch issued an extensive report documenting the killing, detention
and torture of hundreds of activists since 2018. This includes dozens who were
assassinated in or near their own homes, by paramilitaries who almost certainly
will never be brought to justice.
Sara Edan received unwanted death threats from militias, after participating in
2018 protests in Basra. She fled Iraq, but returned in 2019 because her mother
had cancer. Despite keeping a low profile and avoiding the protests that year,
she and her husband were found shot dead in their own home, a short distance
from a police checkpoint. When activist Reham Yaqoub was shot dead in her car in
2020, a police checkpoint next to the location had been vacated shortly before
her killing — part of a consistent pattern of paramilitary and police collusion
in such incidents.
In 2014, the US administration made the mistake of believing that the Hashd
could be wielded as a weapon against Daesh. But Daesh and the Hashd come as a
package; they both advance each other’s agenda by fueling instability and
sectarian tensions, to consolidate their positions and justify their existence.
Today, the Hashd exercises a total stranglehold over Iraq — alongside parallel
entities in Syria, Yemen and Lebanon — yet the global media rarely bothers to
mention this group, and it consistently shocks me how many Western foreign
policy officials have scarcely any comprehension of what this group is and the
threat it poses to the region. Just as Hezbollah during the 1980s effectively
invented the techniques of modern terrorism, Iran’s proxies throughout the
region are a major reason why jihadist terrorism and sectarian hatreds have
flourished. The continuing Iran-fueled instability in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and
elsewhere is the incubator that will deliver the next generation of global
terrorists.The world may have long-since abandoned these conflict zones — but
the monsters they produced have not abandoned their aspiration to break out and
once again menace the world.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.
Nuclear deal: The world cannot wait for Iran indefinitely
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/February 26, 2023
For almost two years, the world powers known as the P5+1 — the UK, France,
Russia, China and the US, plus Germany — have been advocating for a revival of
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which is also known as the Iran nuclear
deal. But after several rounds of negotiations, which did not bring any positive
results, the international community does not appear to have any articulate
agenda or alternative plan to adequately address Iran’s nuclear program and
defiance.
The main problem is that time is on the side of the Iranian leaders. Time always
plays a critical role in talks. In other words, time can impact the basic
processes of negotiators’ cognition and motivation. As a result, the more a
negotiating party is constrained by time, the more likely it will be to make
concessions in order to reach an agreement.
Due to the fact that time is on the side of the Iranian regime, the Raisi
administration has shown no sense of urgency in returning to the negotiations.
Meanwhile, the Iranian regime has gradually made nuclear advancements and has
now reached a significant point. The Iranian authorities first began increasing
uranium enrichment to 20 percent. Then, the Iranian parliament passed a law
requiring the government to expel the International Atomic Energy Agency’s
nuclear inspectors. Since then, the regime has raised its uranium enrichment
level to 60 percent, edging closer to weapons-grade levels.
Such progress in their nuclear program enhanced the Iranian leaders’ leverage
vis-a-vis the world powers. This is why the Iranian authorities have not been
completely secretive regarding their nuclear program’s advances this time
around. For example, while the regime was holding indirect nuclear talks with
the Biden administration, Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker,
boasted about Tehran’s ongoing nuclear activities, stating: “The young and
God-believing Iranian scientists managed to achieve a 60 percent-enriched
uranium product. I congratulate the brave nation on this success.”
In the next phase, the regime reached a dangerous stage in its nuclear program
by producing enriched uranium metal. There are no civilian purposes for
producing uranium metal. The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, previously warned
that the Iranian regime had informed the agency that uranium oxide “enriched up
to 20 percent U-235 would be shipped to the R&D laboratory at the fuel
fabrication plant in Esfahan, where it would be converted to UF4 (uranium
tetrafluoride) and then to uranium metal enriched to 20 percent U-235, before
using it to manufacture the fuel.”
Progress in their nuclear program has enhanced the Iranian leaders’ leverage
vis-a-vis the world powers.
While it seems that many countries agree with the fact that there are no
civilian purposes for the latest advances in Iran’s nuclear program, no tangible
and concrete action has yet been taken to curb the regime’s progress. The UK,
France and Germany previously acknowledged in a joint statement that the Iranian
regime “has no credible civilian need for uranium metal R&D and production,
which are a key step in the development of a nuclear weapon.”
Last week, the IAEA revealed that it had found uranium enriched to 84 percent in
Iran. This is a critical development because the regime is now closer than ever
before to weapons-grade. The Iranian authorities continue to claim that their
nuclear program is designed for peaceful purposes. But if that is the case, why
is the Iranian regime refusing to fully cooperate with the IAEA?
In fact, past evidence regarding Iran’s nuclear file, which is filled with
clandestine nuclear activities and sites, points to the idea that the regime
wants to become a nuclear-armed state.
The international community cannot afford for the Iranian regime to go nuclear.
If the theocratic establishment becomes nuclear-armed, it is likely that nuclear
weapons will fall into the hands of its proxy and militia groups. It has already
set up weapons factories abroad and manufactured advanced ballistic missiles and
other weapons in foreign countries, including Syria.
Since the theocratic establishment is already supplying advanced weapons to its
proxies, what would stop it from sharing its nuclear technology to empower these
groups, undermine its perceived adversaries’ national security interests, and
expand its reach? As a UN report revealed: “An increasing body of evidence
suggests that individuals or entities in Iran supply significant volumes of
weapons and components to the Houthis.”
In a nutshell, when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program, time is unfortunately on
the side of the theocratic establishment. The international community must act
immediately to curb Tehran’s nuclear program. The world cannot wait indefinitely
for Iran to come back to the negotiating table while the ruling clerics are
advancing their nuclear program and getting closer than ever to producing
weapons-grade material.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political
scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Syrian regime must realize that Iran’s presence is dangerous
Ghassan Ibrahim/Arab News/February 26, 2023
The Israeli Air Force last week launched a military airstrike on Damascus, in
the Kafr Souseh district, which is considered a security square for the Syrian
intelligence services.
Unusually, the attack took place in the center of the Syrian capital, as Israel
has previously attacked military targets belonging to Iranian militias outside
cities or residential areas. This area is considered a high-security
surveillance zone and is also home to many Iranian security forces.
This strike seems to have served more than one purpose. It was an attack on what
could be described as a logistics headquarters, a financial center and a
fortified meeting hall of leaders of Iranian militias that are classified as
terrorist groups.
According to local sources, the targeted building is owned by businessman Fadel
Balawi, owner of the Al-Fadel Money Transfer Company, which is linked to the
Lebanese Hezbollah militia. The strike mainly affected the building’s
underground rooms, which were designed to avoid military attacks, but this
strike was more severe than expected. The targeted building is located behind an
Iranian school, indicating the size of the Iranian presence in the area.
In the same neighborhood, Imad Mughniyeh, the top military commander of the
pro-Iranian Hezbollah, was killed in a 2008 bomb attack.
This Israeli attack appears to have coincided with a secret meeting between
Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps technical experts and Syrian regime
military engineers to discuss Iran’s drone and guided missile production program
in Syria. If the military strike achieved its goal of eliminating the Iranian
leadership overseeing the IRGC’s secret rocket and armed drone production
program, it would be an unexpected blow to Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicle
ambitions.
Local sources indicate that the strike killed Hezbollah leader Ali Assaf, who
heads the military faction in Syria that Qassem Soleimani helped establish six
years ago. This faction possesses missiles transported from Iran and stored in
various locations, including residential areas in Syria.
Israel believes that Iran took advantage of the dire situation in Syria
following this month’s earthquake to transfer electronic air defense systems as
part of humanitarian aid, prompting Israel to attack these systems.
The Israeli bombardment had a total of four targets across Syria. The first was
the meeting headquarters of Unit 840, which is affiliated with Iran’s Quds
Force, near the Intelligence Division building in Kafr Souseh. The second was a
warehouse at the Jamal Plaza Hotel in the Sayyidah Zaynab area close to
Damascus. The third was a radar in Tal Al-Masih in As-Suwayda province. And the
fourth was an air defense battalion in Al-Kiswah.
Israel appears to be convinced that Iran wants to turn Syria into a military
base on its borders.
Based on the magnitude and accuracy of the Israeli bombing, the Syrian Army
ultimately failed to counter the attack. The Syrian regime tried to claim that
the strikes were carried out using Israeli missiles, but Russian sources
presented a different version. They said four Israeli F-16 tactical fighter jets
launched the strikes. Israel appears to be convinced that Iran wants to turn
Syria into a military base on its borders. Because of this belief, Israel is
ready to bomb these Iranian targets at any cost. Moreover, it seems that Israel
has the support of Western countries when carrying out such strikes, while
Russia does not oppose it either. There is a common concern among Israel and its
Western allies about the Iranian program to produce military drones. Iran’s use
of drones in Syria could threaten the fragile stability and drag Syria into an
unexpected new war.
Last week, an international coalition base in the Al-Tanf region of eastern
Syria was attacked by Iranian drones. Iranian militias most likely carried out
this attack. A US Army official announced that American forces had shot down a
drone.
There is a tendency for Western countries and Israel to respond to Iran’s use of
armed drones in Syria. This military confrontation could escalate into a war
Syria has no way of either joining or avoiding.
Oddly enough, the Syrian regime is unaware of the gravity of the situation, in
which it has become hostage to the conflict between Iran and Israel. This
situation threatens the security of the Syrian people and destroys all paths to
peace and stability.
The Syrian regime’s deceptive policies have turned the country into a hub that
attracts terrorist groups from all quarters, especially Iranian militias that
are classified as terrorist organizations in most countries.
Iran has offered nothing to help Syria. On the contrary, it has put Syria in
permanent danger because of its ambitions, which the Syrians do not share or
even sympathize with.
Will the Syrian regime understand that Iran’s presence is dangerous for Syria
and an obstacle to the building of any form of lasting stability? Iranian
militias in Syria will lead the country into endless conflict, which means more
Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets.
• Ghassan Ibrahim is a British-Syrian journalist and researcher on issues
regarding the Middle East, most notably Turkiye, Syria and Iran. He can be
reached at www.ghassanibrahim.com.