English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 18/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2023/english.february18.23.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
You hypocrites! You know how to interpret the appearance of earth and sky, but
why do you not know how to interpret the present time? ‘And why do you not judge
for yourselves what is right?
Saint Luke 12/49-59/:”I came to bring fire to the earth, and
how I wish it were already kindled! I have a baptism with which to be baptized,
and what stress I am under until it is completed! Do you think that I have come
to bring peace to the earth? No, I tell you, but rather division! From now on,
five in one household will be divided, three against two and two against three;
they will be divided: father against son and son against father, mother against
daughter and daughter against mother, mother-in-law against her daughter-in-law
and daughter-in-law against mother-in-law.’He also said to the crowds, ‘When you
see a cloud rising in the west, you immediately say, “It is going to rain”; and
so it happens. And when you see the south wind blowing, you say, “There will be
scorching heat”; and it happens. You hypocrites! You know how to interpret the
appearance of earth and sky, but why do you not know how to interpret the
present time? ‘And why do you not judge for yourselves what is right? Thus, when
you go with your accuser before a magistrate, on the way make an effort to
settle the case, or you may be dragged before the judge, and the judge hand you
over to the officer, and the officer throw you in prison. I tell you, you will
never get out until you have paid the very last penny.’”
Question: “What is Christian revival?”
GotQuestions.org?/February 16/2023
Answer: Revival refers to a spiritual reawakening from a state of dormancy or
stagnation in the life of a believer. It encompasses the resurfacing of a love
for God, an appreciation of God’s holiness, a passion for His Word and His
church, a convicting awareness of personal and corporate sin, a spirit of
humility, and a desire for repentance and growth in righteousness. Revival
invigorates and sometimes deepens a believer’s faith, opening his or her eyes to
the truth in a fresh, new way. It generally involves the connotation of a fresh
start with a clean slate, marking a new beginning of a life lived in obedience
to God. Revival breaks the charm and power of the world, which blinds the eyes
of men, and generates both the will and power to live in the world but not of
the world.
In the USA, the first revival, also called the First Great Awakening, produced
an upsurge of devotion among Protestants in the 1730s and 1740s, carving a
permanent mark on American religion. It resulted from authoritative preaching
that deeply moved the church members with a convicting awareness of personal
guilt and the awesome nature of salvation through Christ. Breaking away from dry
ritual and rote ceremony, the Great Awakening made Christianity intensely
personal to the average person, as it should be, by creating a deep emotional
need for relationship with Christ.
Revival, in many respects, replicates the believer’s experience when he or she
is saved. It is initiated by a prompting of the Holy Spirit, creating an
awareness of something missing or wrong in the believer’s life that can only be
righted by God. In turn, the Christian must respond from the heart,
acknowledging his or her need. Then, in a powerful way, the Holy Spirit draws
back the veil the world has cast over the truth, allowing the believers to fully
see themselves in comparison to God’s majesty and holiness. Obviously, such
comparisons bring great humility, but also great awe of God and His truly
amazing grace (Isaiah 6:5). Unlike the original conversion experience that
brings about a new relationship to God, however, revival represents a
restoration of fellowship with God, the relationship having been retained even
though the believer had pulled away for a time.
God, through His Holy Spirit, calls us to revival in a number of situations.
Christ’s letters to the seven churches reveal some circumstances that may
necessitate revival. In the letter to Ephesus, Christ praised the church for
their perseverance and discernment, but He stated that they had forsaken their
first love (Revelation 2:4-5). Many times as the excitement of acceptance to
Christ grows cold, we lose the zeal that we had at first. We become bogged down
in the ritual, going through the motions, but we no longer experience the joy of
serving Christ. Revival helps restore that first love and passion for Christ.
Revelation 2:10-11 refers to the church at Smyrna, which was suffering intense
persecution. The cares and worries of life can beat us down, leaving us
emotionally, physically, and spiritually exhausted. Revival can lift us up to
new hope and faith.
Revelation 2:14-16 talks about the problem of compromise with the world and
incorporating worldly values into our belief systems. Revival helps us to
rightly discern what values we should hold. Revelation 2:20-23 discusses the
problem of tolerating false teaching in our churches. We need to examine the
messages that we hear and compare them to the message of the Bible. Revival
helps us to find the truth. Revelation 3:1-6 describes a dead church, a church
that goes through the motions outwardly, but there is nothing underneath. Here
is a picture of nominal Christianity, outwardly prosperous, busy with the
externals of religious activity, but devoid of spiritual life and power. Revival
helps to resuscitate spiritual life. In Revelation 3:11, we are further warned
against complacency, a life that does not bear fruit. All of these scenarios
call for revival.
The evidence of revival, a great outpouring of the Holy Spirit upon believers,
is changed lives. Great movements toward righteousness, evangelism, and social
justice occur. Believers are once again spending time in prayer and reading and
obeying God’s Word. Believers begin to powerfully use their spiritual gifts.
There is confession of sin and repentance.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 17-18/2023
Khamies El Sakra Maronite Tradition -“Drunken Thursday"
Elias Bejjani/February 16/2023
After the "violent" clashes in Horta... the Lebanese army mourn Its Three
martyrs
Three Lebanese soldiers killed in raid to arrest drug barons
Lebanon: Three Soldiers Killed in Clashes with Drug Dealers
Franjieh says his candidacy not obstructing presidential vote
Strong Lebanon slams 'folkloric' meetings as crisis bites
European legal team to return to Lebanon in March
Bishop meets Bassil as al-Rahi seeks Christian consensus
Mikati asks if Thursday protestors were 'real depositors' as Security Council
meets
February in Lebanon: Month of pain and anger
Dollarization: Businesses price in dollars as LBP swings around 80,000
UK Director General Vijay Rangarajan visits Lebanon
Hizbullah Officers On Anniversary Of The Killing Of Top Military Commander 'Imad
Mughniyeh: If Nasrallah Says The Word, We Will Liberate The Galilee The Next
Day; We Will Show Up On The Israelis' Doorsteps
Lebanon’s Finance Minister Says Difficult to Replace C. Bank Head Salameh
Survey of Lebanon offshore gas field promises ‘positive results’
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 17-18/2023
6 people shot, killed
in series of shootings in Mississippi
Israel Steps up Talks With Saudi Arabia Over Ties to Combat Iran
Iran’s Provision of Missiles to Russia Remains Distinct Possibility
Israel: 'all possible means on the table' to prevent Iran getting nuclear weapon
Israel: ‘all possible means on the table’ to prevent Iran getting nuclear weapon
Safeguarding regional security, stability is priority for US-GCC Working Group
Protests hit multiple Iran cities for first time in weeks
Israel: ‘All Possible Means on the Table’ to Prevent Iran Getting Nuclear Weapon
Overnight Protests Rock Tehran, Other Iranian Cities, Videos Show
US Congress to Face Iranian Drone Threat
Chinese President to Visit Iran
Ukrainian refugees safe, but not at peace, after year of war
US Says ISIS Commander Killed, Troops Wounded in NE Syria Raid
Key moments in a year of war after Russia invaded Ukraine
N. Korea threatens unprecedented response to South-US drill
Titles For
The Latest
English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 17-18/2023
Iran’s Mounting Missile Threats to Neighboring Countries/Mohammad Abu Ghazleh/The
Washington Institute/February 17/2023
Earthquake in Syria and Turkey: U.S. Policy Implications/Can Selcuki, Amany
Qaddour, Soner Cagaptay, Andrew J. Tabler//The Washington Institute/February
17/2023
The Islamic State in 2023: Threat Levels and Repatriation Questions/Devorah
Margolin/The Washington Institute/February 17/2023
China Lasers Hawaii, Prepares for War/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone
Institute./February 17, 2023
Ukraine: The Unintended Consequences/Amir Taheri/ Asharq Al-Awsat
/February,17/2023
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 17-18/2023
Khamies El Sakra
Maronite Tradition -“Drunken Thursday"
Elias Bejjani/February 16/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115838/115838/
Today, February 16/2023, Thursday, the Catholic Maronites in Lebanon celebrate a
tradition, and not a religious event. A tradition they call “Drunken Thursday,”
which is the day that falls before the beginning of the forty-day fasting ritual-The
Lent,that begins on the Ash Monday.
In past years, Maronite families, particularly in the mountainous areas, used to
gather on this day at the dinner table to pray, meditate, and thank God for His
blessings and gifts. They used to gather to thank the Lord for His gifts, and to
supplicate for His blessings and approval before they start fasting, and before
the start of austerity and prayers in preparation for the celebration of the
resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead, and his ascension to heaven.
The "Drunken Thursday", is neither a Maronite, nor a Christian holiday. Rather,
it is a tradition that many of our people no longer celebrate, even if they
remember it.
Historically, "drunken Thursday" is an old tradition, and we do not know
in any era of time it existed, and who created it, but it was certainly
practiced in our mountains every year on the Thursday before the beginning of
the forty-days fasting ritual-The Lent. There is very little information written
about it in the books of Lebanese history and the Maronite church records
(synaxarium).
Some historical records say that the Maronites used to drink wine and Arak (Ozo)
on this day, as a token of joy and partnership between parents and families
during their blessed gatherings around the dinner table, as a replicate, concept
and symbolism of the secret and last supper of Jesus Christ with his disciples,
in a religious bid to give thanks to God for His blessings and gifts that He
bestowed upon them.
After the "violent" clashes
in Horta... the Lebanese army mourn Its Three martyrs
NNA/ Friday, February 17, 2023
The Army Command mourns the Directorate of Orientation, the martyr Sergeant Paul
Antoine Al-Jurdi, who was martyred on 2/16/2023 after he was shot during clashes
with wanted persons in the town of Hortala – the Bekaa. The following is a
summary of the martyr’s life:
Born on 9/6/1999 in Taalabaya - Zahle.
He volunteered in the army on 11/14/2018.
Received the commendation and congratulations of the Armed Forces Commander,
several times.
The Army Command also mourns the Directorate of Orientation, the martyr Sergeant
George Philip Abu Shaya, who was martyred on 2/16/2023 after he was shot during
clashes with wanted persons in the town of Hortala – the Bekaa. The following is
a summary of the martyr’s life:
Born on March 17, 2001 in Ablah - Zahle.
He volunteered in the army on 11/14/2018.
Received the commendation and congratulations of the Armed Forces Commander,
several times.
Family status: single.
The Army Command mourns the First Adjutant Orientation Directorate, the martyr
Hassan Khalil Sharif, who was martyred on 2/16/2023 after he was shot during
clashes with wanted persons in the town of Hortala – the Bekaa. The following is
a summary of the martyr’s life:
Born on November 17, 1989 in Mograq - Baalbek.
He volunteered in the army on October 7, 2008.
- Received the commendation and congratulations of the Armed Forces Commander,
several times.
Family status: Married / 3.
Background
Three Lebanese soldiers killed in raid to arrest drug
barons
Naharnet/February 16/2023
Three soldiers and three fugitives were killed Thursday during a Lebanese Army
raid aimed at arresting durg barons in the Bekaa town of Hawrtaala, the army
said.
“Troops came under gunfire, which prompted them to respond in kind, resulting in
casualties on the two sides,” the army added.
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati commented on the incidents in a tweet. “It
is the army’s destiny to always be in the lead to defend the country and its
sovereignty and protect its people, paying hefty prices from the lives of its
soldiers,” Mikati said.
“I salute the three army martyrs who fell today in the Bekaa and I pray to God
to heal the wounded soldiers,” the premier added, extending warm condolences to
the army and its command.
The army often carries out raids in the Bekaa region hunting drug smugglers amid
efforts to counter a surge in captagon production and trafficking after backlash
from Gulf nations. Captagon pills, an amphetamine that is wreaking havoc in the
region, are produced mainly in Syria and smuggled to the main consumer markets
in the Gulf.
Background
Lebanon: Three Soldiers Killed in Clashes with Drug Dealers
Asharq al-Awsat/Friday, 17 February, 2023
Three Lebanese soldiers were killed on Thursday in an exchange of fire with drug
dealers in the Bekaa region east of Lebanon. The military raided the hideouts
and residences of the suspects in the Hor Taala town in Bekaa. The suspects
opened fire at the soldiers. Three military personnel and three suspects were
killed in the clashes. The army besieged three suspects and killed three others.
Several suspects managed to escape towards the border areas with Syria. Unnamed
field sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the army arrested a suspect of the same
family last week. The mission was completed on Thursday to arrest the rest of
the drug dealers who are also charged for counterfeit money. Security sources
told Asharq al-Awsat that the suspects are involved in drug dealing and wanted
inside Lebanon and abroad. The military had been tracking them for months, they
said. Using a ScanEagle unmanned aerial vehicle, the military tracked the
suspects who managed to flee towards the Syrian border. Drug dealers usually
seek shelter in the Bekaa region near the Syrian border. The army consistently
carries out raids in that area in search for them. “Army raids are carried out
on a daily basis in the villages of Baalbek and Hermel,” security sources told
Asharq Al-Awsat.
Franjieh says his candidacy not obstructing presidential
vote
Naharnet/Friday, 17 February, 2023
Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh on Friday announced that his
presidential nomination is “not obstructing the presidential juncture,” contrary
to “what some are promoting.”“We would support any settlement that would be in
Lebanon’s interest, but every settlement needs two parties that would engage in
dialogue to reach common denominators,” Franjieh added. “The constitution was
laid out in a wise manner and conformity to the National Pact requires that each
sect be represented. Accordingly, a president elected with 65 votes in the
presence of 86 MPs would be a legitimate president who conforms to the National
Pact,” Franjieh went on to say. “We have not yet nominated ourselves for the
presidency, but our name is proposed and our intention toward our country is
sound,” the Marada chief added. “We have an economic, political and social
vision that is built on realism and saying the truth no matter how painful,”
Franjieh said. Separately, the Marada chief said “protecting Christians begins
through strengthening their belonging to the country, not through entangling
them in partitioning schemes and scaring them of their partners in the country.”
Strong Lebanon slams 'folkloric' meetings as crisis bites
Naharnet/Friday, 17 February, 2023
The Strong Lebanon bloc said Friday, in a statement, that it will not attend any
legislative sessions before the election of a president, asking other blocs who
also refused to attend parliamentary sessions to boycott the cabinet sessions as
well. The bloc also condemned the banks' open-ended strike, as he accused the
caretaker prime minister and the central bank governor of attending "folkloric"
meetings as people face alone dire economic situations. Dozens of angry
demonstrators had attacked several banks in Beirut on Thursday after the
Lebanese pound hit a record low. The attacks came after the Association of Banks
in Lebanon declared an open-ended strike, saying the crisis was affecting the
entire financial system. On Friday, the Central Security Council convened at the
Grand Serail and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati asked after the meeting
if the activists who attacked the banks were "real depositors," suggesting that
they might have received instructions to do what they did. He had also attended
a financial meeting on Thursday and said that a series of meetings will be held
next week in order to take the required measures regarding the currency
devaluation.
European legal team to return to Lebanon in March
Associated Press/Friday, 17 February, 2023
A European judicial delegation from France, Germany, and Luxembourg will return
to Lebanon in the first week of March, a judicial source said. The source told
Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, in remarks published Friday, that the judges will
start to arrive in Lebanon starting March 5 and will question Central Bank
governor Riad Salameh and other central bank employees and commercial banks
heads. The European legal team wrapped up last month the first round of
questioning of Lebanese bankers and current and former Central Bank officials in
Beirut, as part of a probe on money laundering linked to Salameh. In March last
year, authorities in France, Germany and Luxembourg froze more than $130 million
in assets linked to the investigation. There have been reports that a brokerage
firm, Forry Associates Ltd., owned by Raja Salameh — the brother of the Central
Bank governor — was hired by the Central Bank to handle government bond sales in
which the firm received $330 million in commissions. The governor, who has
denied all charges of corruption, calling them politicized, said earlier that
“not a single penny of public money” was used to pay the brokerage firm.
Meanwhile Judge Raja Hamoush has been tasked to look into the corruption case of
Salameh, after the dismissal of Judge Ziad Abu Haidar. After studying the file,
Hamoush will decide whether to sue Salameh for illicit enrichment, embezzlement,
forgery, and counterfeiting.
Bishop meets Bassil as al-Rahi seeks Christian consensus
Naharnet/Friday, 17 February, 2023
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi is continuing his efforts to secure Christian
consensus over the presidential file, a media report said on Friday. “In an
attempt to reconcile viewpoints between political forces, the Christian ones in
particular, the Maronite Archbishop of Antelias Antoine Abu Najem will visit the
heads of Christian parties to explore their stances and approach toward the
presidential juncture,” the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper reported. “Bishop Abu
Najem’s first tour of politicians will be exploratory, during which he will look
into the stances of the political forces over the proposed presidential
initiatives. Should the first round be fruitful, the second phase will be
focused on holding bilateral meetings between the heads of Christian parties,”
informed sources told the daily. The newspaper added that Abu Najem has already
met with Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil.
Mikati asks if Thursday protestors were 'real depositors'
as Security Council meets
Naharnet/Friday, 17 February, 2023
The Central Security Council held Friday an emergency meeting at the Grand
Serail, a day after angry protesters blocked roads across the country and
smashed windows and set tires on fire outside banks in Beirut, as the value of
the local currency hit a new low.
After the meeting, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati asked if the activists
who burned tires in front of the banks are "real depositors," suggesting that
they might have received instructions to do what they did. Around 50 protesters
had smashed the facades of four banks and burned car tires in the central Beirut
neighborhood of Badaro. The attacks came after calls by the "Depositors' Outcry
Association", a group that supports depositors' attempts to withdraw their
money. Mikati added that today's security meeting has been preceded by a
financial meeting as part of a series of meetings that will be held next week in
order to take the required measures regarding the currency devaluation. Central
Bank Governor Riad Salameh had said during the financial meeting on Thursday
that the Central Bank cannot control the exchange rate anymore on its own and
needs the government to help it by taking the needed measures, Nidaa al-Watan
newspaper reported. Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi, who attended the security
meeting on Friday, said that "chaos is not in anyone's interest.""We affirm that
we will separate security from politics," Mawlawi added, stressing that
political and social problems should not affect security.
February in Lebanon: Month of pain and anger
Associated Press/Friday, 17 February, 2023
The Lebanese woke up terrified on February 6 as a 7.8-magnitude quake centered
in Turkey jolted them from beds, shaking buildings for about 40 seconds. Many
residents of Beirut left their homes and took to the streets or drove in their
cars away from buildings, terrorized by memories of the 2020 port explosion that
wrecked a large swath of the city. The quake devastated parts of Turkey and
Syria, killing more than 41,732 in the two countries.
Lebanon offered help.
Many Lebanese were missing in Turkey. Lebanese citizen Bassel Habkouk was
rescued from the rubble of a destroyed hotel on February 8, two days after the
devastating earthquake but his friend Elias Haddad was later found dead. A third
Lebanese man, Mohammed al-Mohammed, is still believed to be under the rubble of
the same hotel.
Mohammed had bought two engagement rings from Antakya and sent the photo of the
rings to his fiancée as he packed his suitcase to return to Lebanon. Lebanese
national Mohammed Shamma and his son were rescued from the rubble in Turkey’s
Hatay province while his wife was killed. Lebanese novelist and activist Dalal
Zeineddine and her three sons and grandson were also killed in Hatay’s Antakya.
In Aleppo, three Lebanese were killed in the earthquake.
But that wasn't all. The Lebanese felt many minor quakes in the following days
as their local currency hit a new low.
The depreciation has already translated into a surge in fuel prices in a country
where 80 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, according to
the United Nations.
In response to the latest price hikes, dozens of taxi drivers on Wednesday
blocked the road in front of the interior ministry in Beirut to protest their
falling income.
On Thursday, angry protesters smashed windows and set tires on fire outside two
banks in Badaro, as the Lebanese pound's value against the dollar plummeted to a
new low from 66,000 to 80,000 in less than a week. In Sin el-Fil, protesters
tried to break into the home of chief of Lebanon's bank association, Salim Sfeir,
who is also CEO of Bank of Beirut. Lebanon's struggling banks, which have
restricted cash withdrawals since late 2019, were shuttered for a tenth day on
Thursday in what they call an “open-ended strike”, following a court case that
ruled in favor of a Lebanese depositor demanding their trapped savings.
Political paralysis has also made matters worse for the country, without a
president since October 2022, and only with a caretaker government with limited
functions.
Caretaker Economy Minister Amin Salam announced Thursday a new pricing mechanism
for grocery stores, where goods will be priced in dollars based on what he
described as a “modest” interpretation of the black market rate. Also on
Thursday, clashes erupted in the eastern Bekaa Valley province after the
Lebanese Army raided homes of suspected drug smugglers. The clashes led to the
deaths of three soldiers and three armed men from a cartel, the Lebanese
military said in a statement.
Dollarization: Businesses price in dollars as LBP swings around 80,000
Associated Press/Friday, 17 February, 2023
In less than a week the Lebanese pound's value against the dollar has plummeted
to a new low from 66,000 to 80,000 at the black market rate, the exchange rate
used for buying and selling most goods and services in the country. There are
several mobile exchange rate applications that have been the reference for the
black market rate for years. Though the country’s pegged exchange rate against
the dollar was officially devalued to 15,000 earlier this month, the black
market rate has reflected a more realistic market rate for years, but rapidly
fluctuates with no transparency.
The value of the Lebanese pound, at times swinging in value several times daily,
has led to businesses pricing their items in dollars, where customers pay in the
local currency based on black market rates. Other businesses have started
charging their goods and services in hard U.S. currency. Economists and
residents fear Lebanon might move towards the latter, which they call
dollarization.
Caretaker Economy Minister Amin Salam announced Friday a new pricing mechanism
for grocery stores, where goods will be priced in dollars based on what he
described as a “modest” interpretation of the black market rate.
Lebanese authorities for years have failed to curtail the black market’s hold on
the currency’s value, even as they have attempted to shut down informal exchange
rate websites and mobile applications.
Last month, Lebanon's chief prosecutor called for security agencies to crack
down on illegal exchangers. A legal official told The Associated Press that the
financial prosecutor prepared a list of dozens of black market money exchangers
for the security agencies to pursue. However, after the list was leaked, the
exchangers laundered their money or left the country, said the official,
speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not cleared to speak to
the press.
Some exchangers turned themselves in, but were soon released given that their
currency holdings were no longer in the country, the official added, while
security agencies raided exchangers who ran small shops and only had “modest”
sums of money. Lebanon's economic crisis has left many struggling to make ends
meet in a country where poverty rates have reached 80 percent of the population,
according to the United Nations. The pound's plunge has triggered a wave of
price hikes including on fuel, food items and other basic goods.
Lebanon is being run by a caretaker government and is also without a president,
as lawmakers have repeatedly failed to elect a successor to Michel Aoun, whose
mandate expired at the end of October.
UK Director General Vijay Rangarajan visits Lebanon
Naharnet/Friday, 17 February, 2023
The UK Director General covering the Middle East Vijay Rangarajan ended a two
day visit to Lebanon from 15 to 16 February, with the British Embassy in Beirut
and UK Syria Office. "He saw first-hand the UK’s continued support to the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the most vulnerable in Lebanon, including Syrian
refugees," a British Embassy statement said. Accompanied by British Ambassador
to Lebanon Hamish Cowell, he met with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and
discussed the country’s latest developments. They offered their condolences over
the death of Lebanese nationals who lost their lives following the devastating
earthquake that hit south-eastern Turkey and commended the "heroic" search and
rescue efforts of the Lebanese Red Cross, LAF and Civil Defense. Rangarajan also
reiterated British support to Syrian refugees and welcomed Lebanon’s "generosity
in providing safe haven." At the Third Land Border Regiment in Ablah, General
Kamal Kamal gave an overview of LAF operations and how UK support is enhancing
their capabilities. Rangarajan also toured a border position built and equipped
through UK support to assist in safeguarding Lebanon’s border security.
Moreover, he visited a refugee family at an Informal Tented Settlement in the
Bekaa that has been supported with UK aid through the World Food Program’s
multi-purpose cash program to meet their most basic and urgent needs.
Rangarajan also met with volunteers from the Lebanese Red Cross who headed to
Syria in the aftermath of the tragic earthquake to help with search and rescue
operations.
Rangarajan said: "An important first visit to Lebanon. I heard from
interlocutors, international partners and stakeholders about the severe impact
the economic crisis is having on the people of Lebanon. The presidential vacuum
risks undermining efforts to deliver much-needed reforms. In my meeting with
Prime Minister Mikati I noted the importance of electing a President and
concluding the IMF deal, with the UK’s full support." "On my visit to the Land
Border Regiments I reiterated the UK’s long-standing partnership between both
our armies and commended the LAF’s continued resilience in extremely difficult
times. And it was moving to meet with a Syrian refugee family, forced to flee
their home in Aleppo in 2015," he added."I extended the UK government’s
condolences to the Government of Lebanon over the death of Lebanese nationals
following the devastating earthquake in Syria and Turkey, and commended the
brave efforts of the Red Cross search and rescue teams," Rangarajan went on to
say, emphasizing that "the UK will remain a committed friend to the people of
Lebanon."
Hizbullah Officers On
Anniversary Of The Killing Of Top Military Commander 'Imad Mughniyeh: If
Nasrallah Says The Word, We Will Liberate The Galilee The Next Day; We Will Show
Up On The Israelis' Doorsteps
MEMRI/February 17/2023
Source: Al-Manar TV (Lebanon)
Hizbullah officers issued warnings against Israel in a February 15, 2023 report
aired on Al-Manar TV (Hizbullah-Lebanon) on the anniversary of the killing of 'Imad
Mughniyeh on Al-Manar TV (Hizbullah-Lebanon). They said that Mughniyeh's
influence will be felt until the Galilee and all of Palestine will be liberated.
They added that Hizbullah fighters are prepared to "liberate" the Galilee, "the
next day," if Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah only says the word. They added
that Hizbullah's mujaheedin can pass through the gaps in the Israeli defenses
and reach the doorsteps of Israeli homes. An officer delivered a "message to the
settlers," saying that Israeli forces will not be able to protect them with the
protective measures at the border, and that it has become clear that they cannot
even defend themselves, in light of events in the West Bank and within the 1948
borders. He said: "They should start leaving this area […] soon enough they will
encounter the resistance at the doorsteps.
Hizbullah officer: "Hajj 'Imad [Mughniyeh] had and has a positive influence, and
will continue to have such influence, inshallah, until the liberation of the
Galilee and, indeed, all of Palestine. The liberation of the Galilee requires
only one word from Sec.-Gen. [Nasrallah]. Once he declares he has made the
decision, we will liberate the Galilee the next day. We are at full alert and
readiness to carry out this decision.
"The resistance is at full alert and readiness. We are just waiting for the
Secretary-General's decision to enter the Galilee and accomplish this goal. As
part of our preparations and planning, we [detected] many gaps in the enemy's
defenses, through which our mujahideen can pass, and appear at the [Israeli's]
homes, at their doorsteps. The [fence] cannot stop us. We don't even take it
into consideration. The men of the resistance are ready and can cross even on
foot. There is no need to use cars or anything. All the measures that the enemy
is taking at the border will not stop the resistance from accomplishing its
goal. I would like to send a message to the settlers. They think that the
enemy's [forces] can protect them with these measures at the border, but we
would like to say a simple thing to them: The enemy [forces] cannot even defend
themselves, especially in light of what we are seeing in the West Bank and the
1948 lands. We advise them to be ready to leave and to start leaving. They
should start leaving this area, because they will be surprised how fast the
resistance will enter the Galilee, and soon enough, they will encounter the
resistance at their doorsteps."
Lebanon’s Finance Minister Says Difficult to Replace C.
Bank Head Salameh
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 February, 2023
Lebanese Finance Minister Youssef Khalil said replacing central bank governor
Riad Salameh, who has held the job for three decades, would be difficult and
that his term may be extended though no consensus has yet been reached. Salameh,
who is being investigated by European and Lebanese prosecutors for alleged
embezzlement of hundreds of millions of dollars in public funds, an accusation
he denies, said last week he would not seek a new term. His latest six-year
stint ends in July. "There is no consensus yet and in Lebanon, and especially in
this political environment, making a big change like this is difficult. It's
very difficult," Khalil told Reuters when asked whether discussions on a
possible successor had begun. "There may be a plan to extend the terms of all
first-level public servants, not just Salameh, but there is not yet consensus on
that," he added on the sidelines of the World Government Summit in Dubai earlier
this week. Khalil also said a financing deal with the
International Monetary Fund remained a priority, even if it was unpopular for
some. "I'm not saying all Lebanese support this but it's important for building
trust and confidence and putting Lebanon on a recovery path," he said.
Beirut signed a draft agreement with the IMF in April but has been slow to
implement reforms required by the lender to access funding to relieve a
three-year economic meltdown that has plunged a vast majority of the population
into poverty. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati
said in November Lebanon could still finalize a deal for a $3 billion bailout
despite having no president and no fully empowered parliament.
The government devalued the official exchange rate by 90% on Feb. 1 to
15,000 pounds to the US dollar for the first time in nearly three decades. At
the time of the devaluation, the pound's value on the parallel market was just
below 60,000 to the dollar. It has since rapidly declined to an all-time low of
80,000 per dollar, prompting protests, bank burnings and road closures on
Thursday. Khalil said he faced "serious resistance"
when he tried to officially devalue the pound months back but the government
still planned to unify the exchange rate and move to collect taxes and fees
based on a rate closer to the parallel market. He said parliament still intended
to pass a capital controls law after years of delay as a way to protect banks
from "very big" lawsuits and to retain foreign currency in the country. Khalil
said there was a "very low level of trust in the banking system", adding: "So,
the question is how do you bring this trust? And there the objective is the
IMF."
Survey of Lebanon offshore gas field promises
‘positive results’
Najia Houssari/Arab News/February 17, 2023
Lebanese Security Council documents 90 protests in two weeks
Protesters setting banks alight ‘are not depositors,’ says caretaker PM
BEIRUT: The outlook for Lebanon’s Qana gas field project appears promising,
caretaker Energy Minister Walid Fayyad said on Friday as authorities race
against time to resume exploration work after demarcating the maritime borders
with Israel in October.
Fayyad visited the Janus 2 ship at Beirut port, brought by TotalEnergies and its
partners Eni and QatarEnergy to complete environmental surveys of the offshore
Block 9 in the exclusive economic zone in preparation for oil and gas
exploration.
“We expect positive results from the survey, but we must be realistic and await
discovery,” Fayyad said. During the past few days, Israel announced the start of
its commercial production in the Karish field.
The Janus 2 has completed an eight-day mission during which it collected images
of the seabed, and took samples of water and sediment.
FASTFACT
The local currency has lost over 120 percent of its value during the past three
years. The pound fell to 82,000 to the dollar on Friday.
It also monitored marine life in the area, providing data for an environmental
impact assessment study, an essential step before drilling under international
and local law. The Lebanese are pinning their hopes on a successful exploration
that will unlock oil and gas reserves worth billions, helping to revive the
country’s faltering economy.
The local currency has lost over 120 percent of its value during the past three
years. The pound fell to 82,000 to the dollar on Friday, a day after protesters
attacked banks and blocked roads in a display of anger over the deteriorating
economy and sharp rises in the price of essential items. Caretaker Interior
Minister Bassam Mawlawi said: “We understand what citizens are going through,
but riots and attacks on public and private property are not the solutions.”
Speaking after Friday’s Central Security Council meeting, Mawlawi said that 90
protests had taken place around Lebanon since the beginning of February, 59 of
which were against the prevailing living conditions.
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who chaired the meeting, said: “We are
doing our best to preserve the authority of the state and the prestige of laws,
especially since all state departments and institutions are collapsing.”
However, he added: “After seeing protesters setting banks alight, I could not
help but wonder if these were really depositors, or some people following
certain directives to create chaos.”
Mikati’s media adviser, Fares Al-Jamil, told Arab News: “After apprehending and
interrogating the protesters who set fire to banks Thursday, we discovered that
they had no bank accounts whatsoever.”
Al-Jamil said that Mikati was following up on the issue and will seek to end the
bank strike early next week.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah issued a series of warnings in a
speech on Thursday evening, saying that it would not allow Israel to extract oil
from the Karish field, “while Lebanon made no progress in this area.”
Nasrallah added: “If you try to starve us, we will kill you.”
He also threatened the US, saying: “If Lebanon is pushed into chaos, then the
world must brace for chaos all over the region, most notably within your
protege, Israel.”
Referring to the Lebanese presidential issue, he said: “No one can impose a
president on the country. It is necessary for the state to continue looking for
ways to solve the issue.”
A political observer described Nasrallah’s positions as “tense and linked to the
deteriorating economic situation, which has worsened in recent days, even for
the party’s supporters.”
The source said: “Accusing the US and holding it responsible for the
deterioration of the economic and financial conditions is a clear attempt by the
party to evade the responsibility of causing the collapse in Lebanon, by using
the force of arms, disrupting the path of the state and depleting its resources
to serve Iran’s interests.”
Hezbollah and its allies have criticized protesters since 2019, accusing them of
following orders from foreign embassies
Richard Kouyoumjian, head of the Foreign Relations Department of the Lebanese
Forces Party, said: “Lebanon is living in chaos because Hezbollah and its allies
are obstructing the constitution, institutions and the presidential elections,
while they fail to produce solutions.”
He said that “a serious solution begins with the election of a sovereign,
reformist, non-corrupt president, who is not affiliated with the Hezbollah
team.”
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on February 17-18/2023
6
people shot, killed in series of shootings in Mississippi
CNN/February 18/2023
Six people are dead in Tate County, Mississippi, after a series of shootings on
Friday, according to reporting from CNN affiliate WMC. The shootings all
happened within the Arkabutla community, Tate County Sheriff Brad Lance told WMC.
One shooting incident occurred inside a store on Arkabutla Road where a man was
shot and killed. Tate County deputies spotted the suspect inside a vehicle on
Arkabutla Dam Road and he was taken into custody without incident, according to
WMC.
Israel Steps up Talks With Saudi Arabia Over Ties to Combat Iran
Sam Dagher and Fiona MacDonald/Bloomberg/February
17/2023
Israel’s new government has stepped up US-backed talks with Saudi Arabia on
developing closer military and intelligence ties in light of growing concerns
about Iran, according to several people familiar with the discussions.
Officials from the two countries held exploratory meetings ahead of the recent
US-Gulf Cooperation Council Working Group gathering on defense and security in
Riyadh, six people said, asking not to be identified as the talks are private.
Further engagement is expected to take place in Prague to coincide with the
Munich Security Conference starting Friday, three of the people said. “We think
that other regions integrating and beginning to sit at the same table with
Israel is in the interest of stability and security in the region,” US Deputy
Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, Dana Stroul, said in Riyadh
on Monday. A healing of the historical rift between major US ally Israel and
Saudi Arabia, the largest Middle East economy, would represent a significant
realignment of regional politics. Yet a fully-fledged reset of relations may
rest on an agreement related to Saudi Arabia’s publicly stated and long-held
demand for the creation of a Palestinian state, some of the people said. That
looks less likely than ever due to escalating violence between Israelis and
Palestinians following the return to power of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
who won an election as head of a far-right coalition late last year.
Other Conditions
Saudi Arabia may have other preconditions, however, primarily an expanded and
renewed commitment by Washington to help combat Iran, analysts have said. The US
government and six Gulf states on Thursday jointly called Tehran a growing
threat to regional security, and President Joe Biden has made closer integration
of Israel in the region a priority to avoid conflict and temper oil prices.
Riyadh is at the same time holding talks with Iran about improving ties. “They
have contacts all the time, accelerated to an extent, though I would not
overplay it,” said Ehud Yaari, an Israel-based international fellow of The
Washington Institute. The two sides have “fairly convenient lines of
communication on intelligence and air defense.” Israel’s prime minister’s office
and foreign ministry declined to comment, as did Saudi Arabia’s Foreign
Ministry.
Abraham Accords
A potential alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia would come after the former
country repaired diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain,
Morocco and Sudan in a series of deals brokered by the Donald Trump US
administration in 2020, now known as the Abraham Accords. Since then trade has
flourished and Israel’s defense exports to those countries reached almost $800
million in 2021. The agreement with Sudan has since stalled, but talks appear to
have regained momentum following a visit by Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen
to Khartoum earlier this month. This is unlikely to have happened without
approval from Riyadh, which has long given financial support to Khartoum and
maintains long-standing historical and cultural ties. There have been other
signs of a warming relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Just before
being sworn in as prime minister in December, Netanyahu gave an interview to the
Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya TV station in which he called normalizing relations
between the majority Jewish and Muslim states “a quantum leap” that would
“change our region in ways that are unimaginable.”Saudi Arabia has begun
allowing flights originating in Israel and destined for Asia and Australia to
transit the country’s airspace, in what was seen as a win for Biden. And Saudi
and Israeli military and intelligence officials have been meeting more often
since Israel was included in the area of responsibility of the US Central
Command encompassing Gulf Arab states.
Counter Iran
Encouraging Saudi Arabia and other GCC states to share more intelligence and
integrate air and missile defense and maritime security with one another and the
US was a central objective of the talks held in Riyadh this week. That would
help counter Iran, which has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Jon B. Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies, who travels to Riyadh often to meet with Saudi
officials, said while there is a “profound alignment in threat perceptions
between the Israelis and the Saudis and other Gulf Arab governments,” when it
comes to Iran, it is not enough on its own to be the basis of Saudi-Israeli
normalization. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman may also be dangling
normalization with Israel as a way to improve relations with the US, Alterman
said, while Netanyahu can talk it up to deflect from troubles at home.
“Will it move beyond friends with benefits? It need not any time soon,” he said.
--With assistance from Ben Bartenstein.
Iran’s Provision of Missiles to Russia Remains Distinct
Possibility
FDD/February 17/2023
Latest Developments
The European Union (EU) may soon sanction seven entities tied to Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) that are providing drones to Russia, Axios
reported on Wednesday, citing two EU officials. The potential targets include
the IRGC Aerospace Force and the IRGC Research and Self-Sufficiency Jihad
Organization, both of which also support Tehran’s ballistic missile program.
While Iran has not supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, Moscow seeks to
procure them from the Islamic Republic, according to Western officials. Should
Iranian missiles reach Russia, they would likely strengthen Moscow’s ability to
wreak havoc in Ukraine.
Expert Analysis
“While Iran’s drones shocked much of the world in 2022, their impact pales in
comparison to Iran’s most prized and lethal weapon — its arsenal of ballistic
missiles, which are growing in quality and quantity.”— Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD
Senior Fellow
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program
Iran is home to the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, as
multiple American directors of national intelligence have attested. Ballistic
missiles are a key element of Iran’s security policy. The regime uses them to
deter and coerce adversaries while keeping the option open for a potential
nuclear delivery vehicle.
Since agreeing to the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has launched at least 228 ballistic
missiles (defined as surface-to-surface missiles with a ballistic trajectory and
space/satellite launch vehicles) from its own territory. This number includes
failed and successful flight tests, military drills, and military operations.
In addition to tests, Tehran also transfers ballistic missiles and associated
technologies to its proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. This weaponry
bolsters Iran’s forward-deployed deterrent and threatens U.S. forces in the
Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility as well as partners such as
Israel and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
An Emboldened Tehran
Iran’s ballistic missiles give Tehran the confidence and security it needs to
pursue its revisionist foreign policy with less fear of military reprisal.
Increased risk-taking by the regime has resulted as a consequence. Between 2017
and 2022, Iran launched over half a dozen ballistic missile operations from its
own territory, one of which, in 2020, included strikes on bases in Iraq housing
American soldiers. Failure to deter Iran will likely ensure further missile use.
In 2022, for example, Iran launched almost three times as many ballistic
missiles as it did in 2021 and killed an American citizen in one of the strikes.
The JCPOA Fails to Counter Iran’s Missiles
While the JCPOA does not address ballistic missiles, UN Security Council
Resolution (UNSCR) 2231, which endorsed the JCPOA, terminates already
non-binding embargoes on both Iranian missile testing and transfers by October
2023. In so doing, the resolution weakens previous UN penalties on Iran’s
missile program and undermines Washington and Europe’s ability to enact a more
coercive Iran policy. Although Tehran’s 228 missile launches since the JCPOA are
already inconsistent with UNSCR 2231, Iran may be waiting until October 2023 to
supply Russia with missiles in order to avoid an international backlash.
Israel: 'all possible means on the table' to
prevent Iran getting nuclear weapon
John Irish/MUNICH (Reuters)/Fri, February 17, 2023
Israel said on Friday that "all possible means" were on the table to prevent
Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon and it demanded that the international
community do more to stop Tehran's proliferation of advanced weapons. Talks to
revive the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers have been at a
stalemate since September. Western states accuse Iran
of making unreasonable demands after all sides appeared to be nearing a deal,
but with no breakthrough in sight Iran has continued to develop its nuclear
programmme.
The United Nations nuclear watchdog this month criticized Iran for making an
undeclared change to the interconnection between the two clusters of advanced
machines enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, close to weapons grade, at its
Fordow plant. "When we speak of preventing Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon,
we must keep all the possible means – I repeat, all possible means - on the
table," Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said, speaking at an event
alongside officials from the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain on the sidelines
of the Munich Security Conference. Yoav said Iran was expanding its advanced
weapons proliferation beyond the region despite an ongoing an embargo that
includes restrictions on missiles and related technologies that lasts until
October 2023 and encompasses the export and purchase of advanced military
systems. "Iran is currently holding discussions to sell advanced weapons,
including UAVs and PGMs, to no less than 50 different countries," he said,
referring to combat drones and precision-guided munitions and citing Belarus and
Venezuela. "The international community must create an
effective alternative to the dying embargo – a practical mechanism of deterrence
and consequences," he said. Israel is widely believed to have its own nuclear
arsenal, though it will neither confirn no deny this.
The 2015 agreement limited Iran's uranium enrichment programme to make it harder
for Tehran to develop nuclear arms, in return for lifting international
sanctions. Iran says it was further developing nuclear energy for peaceful
reasons. Iran's crackdown on protesters and the sale of drones to Russia in its
war with Ukraine has also increased tensions with Western powers, who say that
Tehran is violating a U.N. Security Council Resolution with its transfer of
drones.
The United States and European Union have imposed several raft of sanctions on
Iran over the drones transfers. The EU is set to punish individuals linked to
the Iranian Revolutionary Guards over production of drones used against Ukraine.
Israel: ‘all possible means on the table’ to
prevent Iran getting nuclear weapon
Reuters/February 17, 2023
MUNICH: Israel said on Friday that “all possible means” were on the table to
prevent Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon and it demanded that the
international community do more to stop Tehran’s proliferation of advanced
weapons. Talks to revive the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers
have been at a stalemate since September. Western
states accuse Iran of making unreasonable demands after all sides appeared to be
nearing a deal, but with no breakthrough in sight Iran has continued to develop
its nuclear programmme. The United Nations nuclear
watchdog this month criticized Iran for making an undeclared change to the
interconnection between the two clusters of advanced machines enriching uranium
to up to 60 percent purity, close to weapons grade, at its Fordow plant.
“When we speak of preventing Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon, we must
keep all the possible means – I repeat, all possible means — on the table,”
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, speaking at an event alongside
officials from the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain on the sidelines of the
Munich Security Conference. Yoav said Iran was
expanding its advanced weapons proliferation beyond the region despite an
ongoing an embargo that includes restrictions on missiles and related
technologies that lasts until October 2023 and encompasses the export and
purchase of advanced military systems. “Iran is currently holding discussions to
sell advanced weapons, including UAVs and PGMs, to no less than 50 different
countries,” he said, referring to combat drones and precision-guided munitions
and citing Belarus and Venezuela. “The international
community must create an effective alternative to the dying embargo – a
practical mechanism of deterrence and consequences,” he said. Israel is widely
believed to have its own nuclear arsenal, though it will neither confirn no deny
this. The 2015 agreement limited Iran’s uranium
enrichment program to make it harder for Tehran to develop nuclear arms, in
return for lifting international sanctions. Iran says it was further developing
nuclear energy for peaceful reasons. Iran’s crackdown on protesters and the sale
of drones to Russia in its war with Ukraine has also increased tensions with
Western powers, who say that Tehran is violating a UN Security Council
Resolution with its transfer of drones. The United
States and European Union have imposed several raft of sanctions on Iran over
the drones transfers. The EU is set to punish individuals linked to the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards over production of drones used against Ukraine.
Safeguarding regional security, stability is priority for
US-GCC Working Group
Arab News/February 17, 2023
RIYADH: The US-Gulf Cooperation Council Working Group on combating terror has
underlined its long-standing partnership, and its determination to contribute to
regional security and stability as part of a bilateral strategic partnership.
The pledge came in a joint statement following the meeting, which was held in
Riyadh and attended by senior officials of the US and GCC members, reported the
Kuwait News Agency on Friday. The meeting focused on terrorism threats in the
Middle East and other regions, including southern and central Asia and Africa.
Both sides condemned Iran’s destabilizing behavior, while agreeing that its
support of terrorist and militant groups in the region — and its use of drone
systems — posed a real threat to regional security and stability. However, the
parties added that diplomacy was the only way to deal with Tehran. Those present
stressed the need to do more through joint international efforts to thwart the
resurgence of Daesh militants, and to find sustainable solutions to the problems
of those languishing at camps and detention centers in northeastern Syria.
Protests hit multiple Iran cities for first time in weeks
AP/February 17, 2023
The protests, sparked by the Sept. 16 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after her
arrest by the country’s morality police, have since morphed into one of the most
serious challenges to Iran’s theocracy since the 1979 Islamic Revolution
DUBAI: Protesters in Iran marched through the streets of multiple cities
overnight in the most widespread demonstration in weeks amid the monthslong
unrest that’s gripped the Mideastern country, online videos purported to show
Friday.
The demonstrations, marking 40 days since Iran executed two men on charges
related to the protests, show the continuing anger in the country. The protests,
which began over the Sept. 16 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after her arrest
by the country’s morality police, have since morphed into one of the most
serious challenges to Iran’s theocracy since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Videos showed demonstrations in Iran’s capital, Tehran, as well as in the
cities of Arak, Isfahan, Izeh in Khuzestan province and Karaj, the group Human
Rights Activists in Iran said. The Associated Press could not immediately verify
the videos, many of which had been blurred or showed grainy nighttime scenes.
In Iran’s western Kurdish regions, online videos shared by the Hengaw
Organization for Human Rights showed burning roadblocks in Sanandaj, which has
seen repeated demonstrations since Amini’s death. Hengaw shared one video that
included digitally altered voices shouting: “Death to the Dictator!” That call
has been repeatedly heard in the demonstrations, targeting Iran’s 83-year-old
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Other videos purportedly shot in Tehran
had similar chants, as well as scenes of heavily protected riot police in the
street. Iranian state media did not immediately
acknowledge the demonstrations. Since they began, at
least 529 people have been killed in demonstrations, according to Human Rights
Activists in Iran. Over 19,700 others have been detained by authorities amid a
violent crackdown trying to suppress the dissent. Iran for months has not
offered any overall casualty figures, though the government seemed to
acknowledge making “tens of thousands” arrests earlier this month.
The demonstrations had appeared to slow in recent weeks, in part due to
the executions and crackdown, though protest cries could still be heard at night
in some cities. Forty-day commemorations for the dead
are common in Iran and the wider Middle East. But they also can turn into
cyclical confrontations between an increasingly disillusioned public and
security forces that turn to greater violence to suppress them, as they had in
the chaos leading up to Iran’s 1979 revolution. Iran’s
hard-line government has alleged without offering evidence that the
demonstrations are a foreign plot, rather than homegrown anger.
The country’s rial currency has collapsed to new lows against the US
dollar. Iran continues to enrich uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade
levels after the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers and has enough
of a stockpile to build “several” atomic bombs if it chooses. Meanwhile, Tehran
arms Russia with the bomb-carrying drones Moscow has been using in the war in
Ukraine.
Israel: ‘All Possible Means on the Table’ to
Prevent Iran Getting Nuclear Weapon
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 February, 2023
Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Friday that "all possible means"
were on the table to prevent Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon and said the
international community had to take action to stop Tehran's proliferation of
advanced weapons. "Iran is currently holding discussions to sell advanced
weapons, including UAVs and PGMs, to no less than 50 different countries," he
said, referring to combat drones and precision-guided munitions. "When we speak
of preventing Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon, we must keep all the possible
means – I repeat, all possible means on the table," he said, speaking on the
sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
Overnight Protests Rock Tehran, Other Iranian Cities,
Videos Show
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 February, 2023
Protests rocked Iran again overnight Thursday after seeming to have dwindled in
recent weeks, with marchers calling for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic,
online video posts purportedly showed on Friday. The marches in numerous cities
including Tehran that began on Thursday evening and went on into the night
marked 40 days since the execution of two protesters last month. Mohammad Mehdi
Karami and Mohammad Hosseini were hanged on Jan. 8. Two others were executed in
December. The protests that have swept across Iran began last September after
the death in custody of 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman Mahsa Amini for
flouting the hijab policy, which requires women to entirely cover their hair and
bodies. Videos on Friday showed demonstrations in
several neighborhoods in Tehran as well as in the cities of Karaj, Isfahan,
Qazvin, Rasht, Arak, Mashhad, Sanandaj, Qorveh, and Izeh in Khuzestan province.
Reuters was able to confirm three of the videos on the protests in
Zahedan and one of those in Tehran. An online video purportedly from the city of
Mashhad in the northeast showed protesters chanting: "My martyred brother, we
shall avenge your blood."
Other videos showed large protests on Friday in Zahedan, capital of southeastern
Sistan-Baluchistan province, home to Iran's Baluchi minority. Meanwhile, the
judiciary said a court had dismissed and jailed a police commander accused of
raping a girl. The incident fueled anger ahead of protests on Sept. 30 which
faced a crackdown in Zahedan in which at least 66 people were killed, according
to Amnesty International. The long wave of unrest has posed one of the strongest
challenges to the republic since the 1979 revolution. Openly defying the hijab
rules, women have waved and burned their scarves or cut their hair. While the
unrest appeared to have tapered off in recent weeks, probably because of the
executions or the crackdown, acts of civil disobedience have continued.
Nightly anti-government chants reverberate across Tehran and other
cities. Youths spray graffiti at night denouncing the republic or burn
pro-government billboards or signs on main highways. Unveiled women appear in
the streets, malls, shops and restaurants despite warnings from officials. Many
of the women among the dozens of recently released prisoners have posed unveiled
in front of cameras.
Authorities have not backed down on the compulsory hijab policy, a pillar of the
republic. In recent weeks Iranian media have reported closures of several
businesses, restaurants and cafes for failure to observe the hijab rules. Last
week, Iranian officials called on trade unions for stricter enforcement of hijab
regulations in Tehran’s stores and businesses. "Improperly" veiled female
students were warned last month they would be barred from entering Tehran
University, while local media reported that about 50 students were prevented
from entering Urmia University in the northwest for flouting the hijab rules.
Rights activists say more than 500 protesters have been killed since September,
including 71 minors. Nearly 20,000 have been detained. At least four people have
been hanged, according to the judiciary. Karami, a
22-year-old karate champion, and Hosseini were convicted of killing a member of
the Basij paramilitary force militia. Amnesty
International said the court that convicted Karami relied on forced confessions.
Hosseini's lawyer said his client had been tortured.
Two others were executed on Dec. 8 and 12 respectively.
Five women activists released on Thursday said they owed their freedom to
the solidarity of "the freedom-loving people and youths of Iran", according to
social media posts. "The day of freedom is near," they said in a statement.
US Congress to Face Iranian Drone Threat
Washington - Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17
February, 2023
A bipartisan group of US senators has proposed a bill to face the threat of
Iranian drones and to strengthen US partnerships in the Middle East.
Senators Jim Risch and Bob Menendez, ranking member and chairman of the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee, joined in introducing the legislation, which
seeks joint research and development between the US and its partners in the
Middle East to produce systems capable of facing the Iranian drones. “Iranian
drones have only exacerbated threats to global instability, wreaking havoc
across the Middle East – targeting the UAE, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, and adding
fuel to the conflicts in Yemen and Syria,” said Menendez.
“Iran eagerly sells its drones to Russia with the full knowledge that
they will be used against innocent civilians in Ukraine, and they are culpable
in their suffering and deaths,” he continued. The bill
stresses that “the US should improve cooperation with allies… to systematically
map out, expose, and disrupt missile and drone procurement networks” used by the
Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. It adds that the partner
countries of the US “face urgent and emerging threats” from the drones systems.
“Development of counter Unmanned Aircraft System technology will reduce
the impact of these attacks, build deterrence, and increase regional stability,”
according to the bill. “The threat from Iranian drones is reshaping the security
environment across the Middle East and Europe. Hundreds of drones have
threatened our international partners, US troops, and diplomats. It’s long past
time we develop innovative solutions to make all of us safer,” said Risch. He
stressed that “increased cooperation is not only in America’s interest, it will
also restore deterrence against a rogue Iranian regime and its terror proxies.”
The bill mentioned the cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq,
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Yemen.
Chinese President to Visit Iran
Beijing - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 February, 2023
Chinese President Xi Jinping will make a state visit to Iran, Beijing’s foreign
ministry said Thursday, as a three-day trip to China by Iranian President
Ebrahim Raisi drew to a close. The Chinese president
“gladly accepted the invitation” by Raisi, said a joint statement by both
countries, although no date was given.
The Chinese Xinhua news agency said Xi confirmed his readiness to visit Iran
when possible. The trip would be his first to Iran since 2016, which came soon
after Iran agreed with major world powers in 2015 to rein in its nuclear program
in return for lifting punishing sanctions.
Beijing and Tehran have strong economic ties and in 2021 signed a 25-year
“strategic cooperation pact.”Both countries are under pressure from Western
nations over their positions on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while Iran is
under strict US sanctions due to its nuclear program. In a joint statement
Thursday issued at the close of a Raisi’s visit to Beijing, the two sides blamed
Washington for current tensions and called for the sanctions to be lifted,
saying that “ensuring Iran’s economic dividends” was an “important part” of the
2015 nuclear deal. It called for the agreement, which
then-president Donald Trump withdrew the US from in 2018, to be “fully and
effectively implemented,” reported AFP. The statement added that Iran and China
agreed to strengthen contacts between their ministries of defense and expand the
scope of joint exercises and training courses. The China’s official state
television reported that Iran is seeking to draw $40 billion in energy
investments from China. Xi said Beijing will deepen cooperation with Tehran in
trade and industry. On Tuesday, Xi hailed the “solidarity” between Beijing and
Tehran their mutual support “in the face of the current complex changes in the
world.”
Ukrainian refugees safe, but not at peace, after year of
war
WARSAW, Poland (AP)/Fri, February 17, 2023
Months after Russian forces occupied southern Ukraine's Kherson province last
year, they started paying visits to the home of a Ukrainian woman and her
Russian husband. They smashed their refrigerator and demanded possession of
their car. One day, they seized the wife and her teenage daughter, put
pillowcases over their heads and led them away. The
woman was locked up for days, her legs beaten with a hammer. The men accused her
of revealing Russian soldiers’ locations. They subjected her to electric shocks
and bore down on her feet with the heels of their military boots until two of
her toes broke. She heard screams nearby and feared they came from her daughter.
More than once, with a bag on her head and her hands tied, a weapon was
pointed at her head. She'd feel the muzzle at her temple, and a man started
counting.
One. Two. Two and a half.
Then, a shot fired to the floor.
“Although at that moment, it seemed to me that it would be better in my head,”
she told The Associated Press, recounting the torture that lasted five days,
counted by the sliver of sunlight from a tiny window in the room. “The only
thing that kept me strong was the awareness that my child was somewhere around.”
The Russian officials eventually released the woman and her daughter, she said,
and she made her way home. She took a long shower and packed a bag, and the two
fled the occupied area — first to Russian-occupied Crimea and then to mainland
Russia, from where they crossed by land into Latvia and finally Poland.
Her body was still bruised, and she could barely walk. But in December in
Warsaw, she reunited with a son. And she and her daughter joined the refugees
who have fled their homes since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of
Ukraine. Nearly a year has passed since the Feb. 24,
2022, invasion sent millions fleeing across Ukraine’s border into neighboring
Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova and Romania. Crowds of terrified, exhausted
people boarded trains and waited for days at border crossings.
Across Europe, about 8 million refugees have been recorded, according to
U.N. estimates based on data from national governments, and nearly 5 million of
those have applied for temporary protection. Experts say those numbers are fluid
— some people apply in more than one country — but they agree it's the largest
movement of refugees in Europe since World War II. Unlike refugees from recent
conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, the Ukrainians were largely met with an
outpouring of sympathy and help. Yet while the
Ukrainian refugees have found safety, they have not found peace.
They suffer from trauma and loss — uprooted from their lives, separated from
relatives, fearing for loved ones stuck in Russian-occupied areas or fighting on
the frontline. Children are separated from fathers, grandparents, pets. Others
have no family or homes to return to. The woman from Kherson spoke to the AP
this month at a Warsaw counseling center run in partnership with UNICEF. She
insisted on anonymity; she fears for the safety of her husband and other
relatives in Russian-occupied areas.
She doesn’t like to talk about herself. But she has a goal: For the world to see
what Russian troops are doing.
“Even now, I am afraid,” she said, wiping her eyes with her pastel-color nails
and fiddling over a tissue. “Do you understand?”
She is among the refugees seeking trauma treatment, most often from Ukrainian
psychologists who themselves fled home and struggle with their own grief and
loss. No agency has definitive numbers on refugees in treatment, but experts say
the psychological toll of the conflict is vast, with rates of anxiety and
depression skyrocketing. At the Warsaw center,
psychologists describe treating crying children, teenagers separated from
everything they know, mothers unknowingly transferring trauma to their kids.
One patient, a boy from Mariupol, was used as a human shield. His hair
has already begun to turn gray. The home of the counselor who treats him was
destroyed by a Russian bomb. Refugee mental health is
a priority for aid organizations large and small, even as they work to meet
needs for housing, work and education. Anastasiia
Gudkova, a Ukrainian providing psychological support to refugees at a Norwegian
Refugee Council reception center in Warsaw, said the most traumatized people she
meets come from Mariupol, Kherson and other occupied territories. Those who flee
bombing in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia also arrive terrified.
But there’s pain for those even from relatively safer areas in western Ukraine,
she said: “All Ukrainians, regardless of their location, are under a lot of
stress.”
According to the U.N. refugee agency, 90% of the Ukrainians who have sought
refuge abroad are women, children and the elderly.
The psychologists see women struggle to put on a brave face for children, trying
to survive in countries where they often don’t speak the language. Many women
with higher education have taken jobs cleaning other people’s homes or working
in restaurant kitchens.
The luckiest ones are able to keep doing their old jobs remotely from exile or
are beginning to envision new lives.
Last January, Anastasia Lasna was planning to open her own bakery in Mykolaiv
after finding success with providing other businesses with her vegan foods and
healthy desserts. Today she is running a food pantry of the Jewish Community
Center in Krakow, which has helped some 200,000 Ukrainian refugees, and
integrating herself into the southern Polish city’s growing Jewish community.
She has Israeli citizenship, but doesn’t want to live in another
conflict-scarred land. Joined now in Krakow by her husband and her 6-year-old
daughter, she cannot imagine returning to her former home.
“There is no future there,” she said.
But many refugees still dream of returning home. Their belief that Ukraine will
eventually prevail helps them cope.
Last Feb. 23, Maryna Ptashnyk was in the Carpathian mountains celebrating her
31st birthday with her husband and daughter. For months, Russian forces had
surrounded her country; waves of anxiety came as she pondered whether there
would be “a big war.” So she switched off her phone for her special day.
It was the last night of peace for Ukraine, the last night of normality for
Ptashnyk. The next morning, her husband, Yevhen, woke her and told her Kyiv was
being bombed. Now Yevhen is in the Ukrainian army,
serving in an artillery unit near Soledar in eastern Ukraine, an area of brutal
fighting. Ptashnyk lives alone with their 3-year-old daughter, Polina, in a
small suburban Warsaw apartment. Though Polina is
settling well into a Polish preschool, her mother sees the stress. “For the last
year she often asks me about death, about when we will die,” she said.
Polina sees other children out with their fathers, but she’s seen hers only
three times since the war began. On a recent visit home, she embraced him.
“Daddy’s mine,” she said. For the woman from Kherson,
trying to face the trauma from her torture is just one challenge. She also must
find work to afford an apartment in Warsaw, which is now home to more Ukrainian
refugees than any other city. The influx of people has exacerbated a housing
shortage and caused rental prices to surge amid high inflation — an issue in
many countries welcoming refugees. The mother finds
herself struggling to create a home, a sense of normalcy. The physical pain and
scars haunt her, but some days the lack of moral support hurts the most. Her
husband's family in Russia supports the invasion. Worst of all, he and other
loved ones remain trapped in the Russian-occupied territory. “I am safe now, but
it is very dangerous there," she said. “And I can’t know if they will survive.”
US Says ISIS Commander Killed, Troops Wounded
in NE Syria Raid
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 February, 2023
The US military said Friday a helicopter raid led by its forces in northeast
Syria left a senior leader with the ISIS group dead and four American service
members wounded. The military added in the short statement that the operation
was conducted Thursday night in partnership with the Kurdish-led Syrian
Democratic Forces which is allied with the US. It
added that “an explosion on target resulted in four US service members and one
working dog wounded.” It did not say in which part of northeast Syria the raid
was conducted. It identified the killed ISIS commander as Hamza al-Homsi.
Despite their defeat in Syria in March 2019, ISIS sleeper cells still conduct
attacks around Syria and Iraq where they once declared a “caliphate.”Joint
operations between the US military and SDF fighters are common in northeast and
eastern Syria along the border with Iraq. The
statement said the service members and working dog are receiving treatment in a
US medical facility in neighboring Iraq. The US
military killed two ISIS leaders in Syria over the past few years. In February
2021, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, was killed in a US raid in northwest
Syria. ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was hunted down by the Americans in a
raid in October 2019. In October, the leader of ISIS, Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi
al-Qurayshi, was killed in battle with Syrian opposition fighters in southern
Syria.
Key moments in a year of war after Russia
invaded Ukraine
Associated Press/Friday, 17 February, 2023
The war in Ukraine that began a year ago has killed thousands, forced millions
to flee their homes, reduced entire cities to rubble and has fueled fears the
confrontation could slide into an open conflict between Russia and NATO.
A look at some of the main events in the conflict.
2022
FEBRUARY
On Feb. 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin launches an invasion of Ukraine
from the north, east and south. He says the "special military operation" is
aimed at "demilitarization" and "denazification" of the country to protect
ethnic Russians, prevent Kyiv's NATO membership and to keep it in Russia's
"sphere of influence." Ukraine and the West say it's an illegal act of
aggression against a country with a democratically elected government and a
Jewish president whose relatives were killed in the Holocaust.
Russian troops quickly reach Kyiv's outskirts, but their attempts to capture the
capital and other cities in the northeast meet stiff resistance. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky records a video outside his headquarters to show he
is staying and remains in charge.
MARCH
On March 2, Russia claims control of the southern city of Kherson. In the
opening days of March, Russian forces also seize the rest of the Kherson region
and occupy a large part of the neighboring Zaporizhzhia region, including the
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe's largest.
The Russian army soon gets stuck near Kyiv, and its convoys — stretching along
highways leading to the Ukrainian capital — become easy prey for Ukrainian
artillery and drones.
Moscow announces the withdrawal of forces from Kyiv and other areas March 29,
saying it will focus on the eastern industrial heartland of the Donbas, where
Russia-backed separatists have fought Ukrainian forces since 2014 following the
illegal annexation of Crimea.
APRIL
The Russian pullback from Kyiv reveals hundreds of bodies of civilians in mass
graves or left in the streets of the town of Bucha, many of them bearing signs
of torture in scenes that prompt world leaders to say Russia should be held
accountable for possible war crimes.
On April 9, a Russian missile strike on a train station in the eastern city of
Kramatorsk kills 52 civilians and wounds over 100.
Intense battles rage for the strategic port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov, and
Russian air strikes and artillery bombardment reduce much of it to ruins.
On April 13, the missile cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea
Fleet, is hit by Ukrainian missiles and sinks the next day, damaging national
pride.
MAY
On May 16, Ukrainian defenders of the giant Azovstal steel mill, the last
remaining Ukrainian stronghold in Mariupol, agree to surrender to Russian forces
after a nearly three-month siege. Mariupol's fall cuts Ukraine off from the Azov
coast and secures a land corridor from the Russian border to Crimea.
On May 18, Finland and Sweden submit their applications to join NATO in a major
blow to Moscow over the expansion of the military alliance.
JUNE
More Western weapons flow into Ukraine, including U.S.-supplied HIMARS multiple
rocket launchers.
On June 30, Russian troops pull back from Snake Island, located off the Black
Sea port of Odesa and seized in the opening days of the invasion.
JULY
On July 22, Russia and Ukraine, with mediation by Turkey and the United Nations,
agree on a deal to unblock supplies of grain stuck in Ukraine's Black Sea ports,
ending a standoff that threatened global food security.
On July 29, a missile strike hits a prison in the Russia-controlled eastern town
of Olenivka where Ukrainian soldiers captured in Mariupol were held, killing at
least 53. Ukraine and Russia trade blame for the attack.
AUGUST
On Aug. 9, powerful explosions strike an air base in Crimea. More blasts hit a
power substation and ammunition depots there a week later. signaling the
vulnerability of the Moscow-annexed Black Sea peninsula that Russia has used as
a major supply hub for the war. Ukraine's top military officer later
acknowledges that the attacks on Crimea were launched by Kyiv's forces.
On Aug. 20, Darya Dugina, the daughter of Russian nationalist ideologist
Alexander Dugin, dies in a car bomb explosion outside Moscow that the Russian
authorities blame on Ukraine.
SEPTEMBER
On Sept. 6, the Ukrainian forces launch a surprise counteroffensive in the
northeastern Kharkiv region, quickly forcing Russia to pull back from broad
areas held for months.
On Sept. 21, Putin orders mobilization of 300,000 reservists, an unpopular move
that prompts hundreds of thousands of Russian men to flee to neighboring
countries to avoid recruitment. At the same time, Russia hastily stages illegal
"referendums" in Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions on
whether to become part of Russia. The votes are widely dismissed as a sham by
Ukraine and the West.
On Sept. 30, Putin signs documents to annex the four regions at a Kremlin
ceremony.
OCTOBER
On Oct. 8, a truck laden with explosives blows up on the bridge linking Crimea
to Russia's mainland in an attack that Putin blames on Ukraine. Russia responds
with missile strikes on Ukraine's power plants and other key infrastructure.
After the first wave of attacks on Oct. 10, the barrage continues on a regular
basis in the months that follow, resulting in blackouts and power rationing
across the country.
NOVEMBER
On Nov. 9, Russia announces a pullback from the city of Kherson under a
Ukrainian counteroffensive, abandoning the only regional center Moscow captured,
in a humiliating retreat for the Kremlin.
DECEMBER
On Dec. 5, the Russian military says Ukraine used drones to target two bases for
long-range bombers deep inside Russian territory. Another strike takes places
later in the month, underlining Ukraine's readiness to up the ante and revealing
gaps in Russian defenses.
On Dec. 21, Zelensky visits the United States on his first trip abroad since the
war began, meeting with President Joe Biden to secure Patriot air defense
missile systems and other weapons and addressing Congress.
2023
JANUARY
On Jan. 1, just moments into the New Year, scores of freshly mobilized Russian
soldiers are killed by a Ukrainian missile strike on the city of Makiivka.
Russia's Defense Ministry says 89 troops were killed, while Ukrainian officials
put the death toll in the hundreds.
After months of ferocious fighting, Russia declares the capture of the
salt-mining town of Soledar on Jan. 12, although Kyiv does not acknowledge it
until days later. Moscow also presses its offensive to seize the Ukrainian
stronghold of Bakhmut.
On Jan. 14, when Russia launches another wave of strikes on Ukraine's energy
facilities, a Russian missile hits an apartment building in the city of Dnipro,
killing 45.
N. Korea threatens unprecedented response to South-US drill
SEOUL, South Korea (AP)/HYUNG-JIN KIM/Thu, February 16, 2023
North Korea threatened Friday to take “unprecedently” strong action against its
rivals, soon after South Korea announced a series of planned military drills
with the United States to hone their joint response to the North’s increasing
nuclear threats.
North Korea has halted weapons testing activities since its short-range missile
firing on Jan. 1, though it launched more than 70 missiles in 2022 — a record
number for a single year. Friday’s warning suggests the North's testing could
resume soon over its rivals’ military training, which it views as an invasion
rehearsal. “In case the U.S. and South Korea carry
into practice their already announced plan for military drills that (North
Korea), with just apprehension and reason, regards as preparations for an
aggression war, they will face unprecedentedly persistent and strong
counteractions,” the North Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried
by state media. The statement accused South Korea and
the United States of planning more than 20 rounds of military drills, including
their largest-ever field exercises. It called South Korea and the United States
“the arch-criminals deliberately disrupting” regional peace and stability.
“This predicts that the situation in the Korean Peninsula and the region
will be again plunged into the grave vortex of escalating tension,” the
statement said. It didn’t specify which U.S.-South Korean military trainings it
was referring to. But North Korea has typically slammed all major regular
military drills between Washington and Seoul as a practice to launch an invasion
and responded with its own weapons tests. Some experts say North Korea has used
various South Korea-U.S. drills as a chance to test and perfect its weapons
systems. They say North Korea would eventually aim to use its enlarged nuclear
arsenal to win international recognition as a legitimate nuclear state and win
sanctions relief and other concessions. Seoul and
Washington have said their training is defensive in nature.
Earlier Friday, Heo Tae-keun, South Korea’s deputy minister of national
defense policy, told lawmakers that Seoul and Washington will hold an annual
computer-simulated combined training in mid-March. Heo said the 11-day training
would reflect North Korea’s nuclear threats, as well as unspecified lessons from
the Russia-Ukraine War.
Heo said the two countries will also conduct joint field exercises in mid-March
that would be bigger than those held in the past few years.
The allies had downsized or canceled some of their regular drills in recent
years to guard against the COVID-19 pandemic and support now-dormant diplomacy
on North Korea’s nuclear program. Earlier Friday,
Seoul officials said that South Korea and the U.S. will hold a one-day tabletop
exercise next week at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, to sharpen a response
to a potential use of nuclear weapons by North Korea. The exercise, scheduled
for Wednesday, would set up possible scenarios where North Korea uses nuclear
weapons, explore how to cope with them militarily and formulate crisis
management plans, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said in a statement.
Seoul's security concerns about North Korea’s nuclear program deepened
after Pyongyang last year adopted a law that authorizes the preemptive use of
nuclear weapons, and tested nuclear-capable missiles that put South Korea within
striking distance.
In response to the intensifying North Korean threats, South Korea and the United
States have expanded their joint military drills and stepped up pressure on the
North to abandon its nuclear program. In January, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
said that the U.S. would also increase its deployment of advanced weapons such
as fighter jets and bombers to the Korean Peninsula.
During their annual meeting in November, Austin and South Korean Defense
Minister Lee Jong-Sup agreed to conduct tabletop exercises annually and further
strengthen the alliance’s information sharing, joint planning and execution.
Austin reiterated a warning that any nuclear attack against the U.S. or its
allies would result in the end of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's regime.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on February 17-18/2023
تهديدات إيران الصاروخية المتزايدة لدول الجوار/ محمد ابو غزالة/معهد واشنطن/17
شباط/2023
Iran’s Mounting Missile Threats to Neighboring Countries
Mohammad Abu Ghazleh/The Washington Institute/February 17/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115867/mohammad-abu-ghazleh-the-washington-institute-irans-mounting-missile-threats-to-neighboring-countries-%d9%85%d8%ad%d9%85%d8%af-%d8%a3%d8%a8%d9%88-%d8%ba%d8%b2%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a9-%d9%85%d8%b9
Iran's ballistic missile program poses regional threats that require
international solutions.
The latest attack targeting an Iranian defense factory in the city of Isfahan
has once again stirred concerns over the danger posed by the Iranian missile
system to other nations in the region. Considering Iran’s enhanced missile
capabilities and recent instances of Iran or its proxy forces using rockets, the
threat of missile attacks on neighboring countries has become an urgent issue.
Although Tehran alleges that its missile program is defensive in nature, the
international community remains anxious over the possibility of it being used to
deliver weapons of mass destruction.
The roots of the Iranian ballistic missile program date back to the Iran-Iraq
War of 1980-1988, when Iran began developing missiles as a defensive tool to
ward off Iraq’s rocket attacks. In the years following the war, however, Iran
continued developing and improving its missile capabilities to project power and
influence in the region. One of the key events in Iran’s missile development was
its acquisition of North Korean Nodong missiles in the 1990s. These missiles
greatly enhanced Iran’s capabilities and became the foundation for its future
missile program. Since then, Iran has continued investing in its missile
program, and in recent years has achieved great advancements in missile
technology, innovating several short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Iran
has even developed solid-fuel missiles, which launch faster and move better than
liquid-fueled rockets.
Despite international efforts to curb Iran’s missile program, Iran now possesses
one of the largest missile arsenals in the Middle East, capable of reaching many
neighboring countries. The most prominent weapons, either already extant or
under development, include the liquid-fuel two-stage Simorgh missile, the
liquid-fuel single-stage Khorramshahr-1 and -2 missiles (BM-25/Musudan), as well
as the mid-range Shahab-3 ballistic missile, the mid-range Ghadr-110 ballistic
missile, and the solid-fuel two-stage Sejjil ballistic missile. While estimates
of the ranges of these missiles vary, each claims a range that allows for the
targeting of neighboring countries.
The current missile capabilities represent a major threat to neighboring
countries. Already, Iran and its proxies have launched missile attacks on
military and civilian targets around the region, including in Saudi Arabia, the
UAE, and Iraq, and many are concerned about more attacks in the future as Iran
has demonstrated its readiness to use missiles as a means of flexing its power
and exerting its influence in the region. Adding to the concerns over direct
threats are the repeated accusations that Iran has transferred missiles and
missile technology to its proxies in the region like Hezbollah in Lebanon and
the Houthis in Yemen. International entities and regional power players have so
far attempted to counter Iran through sanctions and diplomatic pressure aimed at
limiting Iran’s missile development capabilities. One such example includes the
2006 UN Security Council Resolution No. 1737, which imposed a weapons embargo on
Iran and restricted its missile program. Nevertheless, Iran has continued
developing its missile capabilities—a sign of the limited impact that these
sanctions have had in achieving their desired goals.
On the other hand, diplomatic efforts including negotiations such as the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, also known as the Iran Nuclear
Deal, have failed to address the issue of these missiles in a comprehensive
manner. While the JCPOA focused heavily on limiting Iran’s nuclear program, it
contained fewer details on any missile program restrictions. Former President
Donald Trump cited this lacuna as one of the main reasons for the subsequent
U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA. Since then, little progress has been
made to restore the deal or any other missile program negotiations, despite
numerous attempts at a revival.
With economic and diplomatic tools to pressure Iran largely at a halt, the
threat of Iran’s missiles is higher than ever. This situation highlights the
necessity of pursuing new methods to effectively handle the threat, which could
include any of the following:
Reviving pre-existing diplomatic efforts to counter the Iranian missile program
through negotiations, including direct dialogue between Iran and regional powers
and multilateral negotiations on the global stage through organizations like the
UN. Establishing back-door channels of communication and engaging with Iranian
officials in international forums or through intermediaries could help exert
additional pressure during the negotiations and ultimately yield successful
outcomes. Such a task is not easy, since it would be discredited by power
centers in Iran who are not ready to make concessions and who oppose any sort of
compromise. Also, the lack of trust between Iran and other regional and
international powers stands as a major barrier to reviving diplomatic efforts.
Exploring other constructive approaches, such as regional confidence-building
measures. This could include procedures aimed at easing tensions and
strengthening dialogue between Iran and its immediate neighbors by focusing on
areas of common interests including security concerns and economic development.
Once those areas are clearly identified, a framework for regional dialogue can
be developed. Again, this proposal faces several obstacles, including the
historical tensions that have existed for decades between Iran and its neighbors
due to ideological differences and Iran's interference in the internal affairs
of its neighbors. These tensions make it hard to construct trust and achieve
meaningful dialogue.
Enhancing international collaboration and boosting regional security through
intelligence sharing and defense coordination, especially regarding the use of
anti-ballistic missile systems. In this context, it is crucial for the countries
concerned to develop a common understanding of the threats and means of
countering them. However, this type of cooperation must also overcome a lack of
trust as well as the diverse political considerations that go into identifying
threats. Moreover, intelligence and financial constraints could also limit the
state’s ability to contribute to international cooperation efforts or invest in
anti-ballistic missile systems, for example.
Expanding international sanctions to limit Iran’s ability to obtain resources
and technology for its missile program. This could include measures targeting
individuals and entities that participate in the development or spread of
Iranian missiles. More specifically, international sanctions can extend to
encompass goods and technologies vital for the Iranian missile program such as
advanced composite materials, high-strength metals, guidance systems, and more.
First identifying these commodities and technologies could then help identify
the companies involved in the production or the supply of these materials. This,
of course, requires the development of measures of enforcement, including
inspections, preventing the smuggling of sanctioned materials, and imposing
harsh penalties on companies and individuals who violate those sanctions. These
enforcement measures face serious challenges, namely the reluctance of some
countries such as China, Russia, and some European countries, to impose
sanctions that would harm their economic interests. These attitudes make
consensus among countries concerned about Iran's missile program difficult.
The historical context for Iran’s missile development, its current capabilities,
and the ineffective international responses to Iran’s missile program
demonstrate the pressing need to find a permanent solution to this issue,
despite the many challenges. Although the threat of Iranian missiles is felt
most acutely by Iran’s neighbors, there is no doubt that international
cooperation and coordination will be necessary to aid regional powers in
preventing Iranian missile attacks and resolving the issue of Iran’s missile
program in the long term.
Earthquake in Syria and Turkey: U.S. Policy Implications
Can Selcuki, Amany Qaddour, Soner Cagaptay, Andrew J. Tabler//The
Washington Institute/February 17/2023
A panel of experts offers on-the-ground insights from the disaster zone and
discusses the political and policy consequences of the still-unfolding
humanitarian crisis.
On February 15, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with Can
Selcuki, Amany Qaddour, Soner Cagaptay, and Andrew Tabler. Selcuki is an
economist, data analyst, and the director of Turkiye Raporu. Qaddour is the
executive director of Syria Relief and Development. Cagaptay is the Institute’s
Beyer Family Fellow and director of its Turkish Research Program. Tabler is the
Institute’s Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow and former senior advisor to the U.S.
special envoy for Syria engagement. The following is a rapporteurs’ summary of
their remarks.
Can Selcuki
Until one sees Hatay, Turkey’s southernmost province struck heavily by the
February 6 earthquakes, it is impossible to grasp the extent of the local
destruction and humanitarian crisis. The damage is far beyond that shown in the
media. Machines have recently begun clearing the rubble, which means almost all
hope of finding survivors is gone. The most recent announcements place the death
toll at around 33,000, but judging by the number of buildings destroyed, the
final figure will be much higher.
Although the scope and magnitude of this disaster would have been too big for
any government to handle easily, Turkish authorities failed to respond strongly
enough in the first forty-eight hours. The military should have been deployed
from the get-go, since it has the right resources, experience, and chain of
command to provide relief after a major disaster. In contrast, the government’s
emergency agencies have shown poor coordination throughout, and some regions
have yet to receive substantial help from Ankara. This should come as no
surprise because pre-earthquake audits of the Interior Ministry’s Disaster and
Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) indicated that the agency was not ready
to respond to such a catastrophe. One recent disaster simulation even outlined
what damage would occur if a 7.5-magnitude earthquake hit the region and what
steps would need to be taken, but the government ignored the report.
Another major problem is Turkey’s failure to enforce its construction code in
recent decades. After the devastating Marmara earthquake in 1999, authorities
developed a solid construction code to prevent such large-scale destruction from
happening again. The government should have enforced this code; instead, it
granted amnesties to developers, which allowed for suboptimal construction
projects.
As a result, any assessment of Turkish politics conducted before this disaster
is now irrelevant. We are in a new paradigm. The public is deeply angry about
the government’s response, yet authorities have answered this disdain by
claiming that no government could have adequately navigated the catastrophe of a
century.
Thankfully, Turkey has the fiscal and financial capacity for reconstruction in
the immediate term. How the longer-term scenarios play out will depend on when
the planned presidential and parliamentary elections are held. President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan has been using proxies to push for postponing these votes, but
such a move would be illegal unless parliament agrees to change the
constitution. If elections are postponed based on a decision by the Supreme
Election Council—which some have speculated may arrive in a couple weeks—then
Turkey will enter an era of unconstitutional governance.
Amany Qaddour
My organization has staff unaccounted for in Gaziantep and Antakya, so our first
goal has been to stabilize our teams so that they can quickly mobilize and start
responding to the unprecedented humanitarian needs in Turkey and Syria. In the
meantime, many residents in the affected areas are outraged by the situation and
feel abandoned by the international community. Every single hour wasted has
meant more lives lost.
In northwest Syria, local organizations are the ones that have been helping on
the ground since the start. At a time when international assistance had yet to
materialize in this area, organizations such as the White Helmets were
performing search and rescue operations. Going forward, foreign governments need
to build up and support first responders in moments of disaster. The U.S.
government has the ability to support more Syrian American diaspora and local
organizations rather than having aid trickle down through large bureaucracies.
Another priority in need of investment is caring for and protecting aid workers.
The UN and the Inter-Agency Standing Committee did not scale up the activation,
deployment, and coordination required for a sufficiently large international
response until February 14, more than a week after the disaster.
Moreover, logistics and politicization are no excuse for withholding desperately
needed humanitarian aid. Every single crossing point into Syria needs to be
activated, and the next UN Security Council resolution needs to include an
indefinite opening of these points. The U.S. government has more resources than
any other country in the world, and the capability to deploy a massive number of
individuals with the skills to save lives.
As for international sanctions, the humanitarian assistance effort has not been
affected by them. NGOs have been operating in both “Government of Syria” areas
and opposition-held territory; in fact, they are the lifeblood of the relief
effort in all affected areas of Syria. Thus, lifting sanctions now only
perpetuates the “normalization” narrative that has emerged in the past few years
related to reconstruction efforts.
Soner Cagaptay
Turkish politics is entering terra incognita. In terms of the human toll, the
February 6 earthquakes constitute the most significant natural disaster in the
country’s modern history and will reset most of its previous sociopolitical
dynamics.
The many problems with the government’s initial response included a failure to
deploy the gendarme—a public safety arm of the military—early on and in large
numbers. Moreover, Erdogan has gutted Turkey’s relief agencies over the past
decade, replacing their executives with loyalists and rendering the
organizations dysfunctional. Predictably, these agencies have failed to provide
adequate and well-coordinated assistance since the disaster.
In contrast, civil society has done well, often surpassing government-led rescue
efforts. Even a Turkish rock star—Haluk Levent, who heads the NGO Ahbap—has done
more than some government agencies. This shows the strength and resilience of
Turkey’s middle class and civil society—a good sign for the country’s future.
While some images from the disaster zone highlight the power of the earthquake
by capturing the destruction of entire neighborhoods, other images show intact
apartment blocks standing next to completely pancaked blocks—which is more a
sign of construction code violations and corruption. Hence, the disaster will
pose a substantial political challenge to Erdogan. He has long cultivated a
domestic image as an autocratic yet effective leader—the efficient “father” of
the nation. His brand is that he takes care of the people, but this brand is now
being tested. In his first address to the public after the horrific disaster,
Erdogan angrily chided citizens for criticizing the government’s response
instead of simply embracing them.
Moving forward, Erdogan will face even more scrutiny for the troubled relief
effort and evident construction violations. In response, he will likely double
down on the fear factor, attempting to appear stronger and more autocratic, as
seen in the aforementioned speech. He might also attempt to postpone the
forthcoming elections, but that would violate the constitution, which does not
allow for such postponements except in the case of war. At the moment, war is
not a possibility at all—in fact, Turkey’s relations with its neighbors are
improving. All of these states have come to Turkey’s aid since the earthquake,
most notably Armenia (which has no diplomatic ties with Ankara) and Greece
(whose terrific public diplomacy has boosted its public standing in Turkey after
years of hostility).
Elsewhere, countries such as France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, and the United
States have provided generous help as well. Although this response will not
magically solve their various bilateral problems with Ankara, it will likely
reset much of the Turkish public’s mindset toward the European Union, NATO, and
the broader West. Over the past decade, the government and its media allies have
helped mainstream anti-Western sentiments and conspiracy theories, frequently
insisting that the West is Turkey’s “other.” Yet as citizens see European and
Western rescuers pull people out of the rubble, many of them will likely begin
to question this narrative. Israel has sent a powerful message as well,
deploying the second-largest rescue team after Azerbaijan.
Andrew Tabler
The Assad regime has agreed to reopen two additional border crossings for UN aid
into northwest Syria, but this gesture is largely an empty one. For one thing,
the agreement is limited to three months, an insufficient period for such a
major disaster. Moreover, the regime has a long track record of weaponizing and
diverting any aid that passes through its hands, including assistance intended
for areas of the country no longer under its control.
The United States, Britain, Canada, and the EU have collectively provided around
91 percent of the aid sent to Syria every year. Accordingly, they should push
for a UN Security Council resolution ensuring that all available aid crossings
into Syria are opened for at least one year, thereby preventing Russia from
using its veto power to complicate humanitarian assistance during that period.
The U.S. government should also appropriately relax sanctions on Syria to
support legitimate earthquake relief—though without giving the regime amnesty
from its conduct during the war. On February 8, Washington released General
License 23, which authorizes transactions related to disaster relief but also
allows entities to work with the “Government of Syria,” potentially opening
loopholes for the regime and its foreign allies.
To address these issues, the White House should request an imagery-based
intelligence assessment to see what has been specifically damaged by the
earthquake rather than the war. This report would enable the administration to
monitor what relief money is being spent on over the next few months. Toward the
same end, Washington should consider the creation of a “white channel” for
humanitarian aid into Syria, similar to what the Trump administration authorized
for Iran in October 2020.
This summary was prepared by Sude Akgundogdu and Erik Yavorsky. The Policy Forum
series is made possible through the generosity of the Florence and Robert
Kaufman Family.
The Islamic State in 2023: Threat Levels and Repatriation
Questions
Devorah Margolin/The Washington Institute/February 17/2023
The latest UN report on the terrorist organization highlights the need for more
progress on addressing repatriation challenges, new financing methods, weapons
proliferation, and threats to African stability, among other issues.
Earlier this month, the UN secretary-general released the sixteenth report
covering the Islamic State (IS) threat to international security and the range
of UN efforts to help member states counter it. Preparation of the biannual
report is supported by several UN bodies, including the Counter-Terrorism
Committee Executive Directorate, the Office of Counter-Terrorism, the Global
Counter-Terrorism Coordination Compact, and the Analytical Support and Sanctions
Monitoring Team, which operates under Security Council Resolutions 1526 (2004)
and 2253 (2015). Although IS (aka ISIL or Daesh) was territorially defeated in
March 2019 with the fall of its last outpost in Baghuz, Syria, events over the
past four years show that the threat posed by the organization and its
affiliates persists, particularly in Africa. At the same time, it is vital to
acknowledge that the international community is now much more secure and
well-prepared to combat IS: attacks in Iraq and Syria are down, the group’s
finances are not what they once were, and repatriation efforts are nearing a
point of consensus.
The IS Threat Today
In discussing current IS threats, the report highlights four main issues. The
first is internal stability; although the past year saw the death of IS leader
Abu al-Hassan al-Hashemi al-Quraishi, he was soon replaced by the current
leader, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Quraishi. IS affiliates have pledged bayat
(allegiance) to the new “caliph,” and the organization has remained stable
despite its leadership attrition.
Second, although coalition efforts have hampered the group’s ability to use its
traditional methods of financing, the overall IS war chest remains substantial,
with an estimated total of $25-50 million. The majority of these funds are used
to pay fighters and support the families of those who have died or been
imprisoned. Furthermore, the group has turned to cryptocurrencies to increase
its financial flexibility. And while IS finances today are paltry compared to
their peak in 2014-2017, the costs needed to sustain the group are also much
lower given its loss of territory and pause in state-building activities.
Third, the UN report emphasizes the “proliferation of conventional and
improvised weapons among [IS] affiliates in Africa.” This continued access to
weapons—particularly unmanned aerial systems—represents a significant threat to
coalition forces and other actors seeking to fight the group.
Fourth, the report notes how detention facilities that hold IS foreign fighters
and their families in Iraq and Syria remain vulnerable to IS attacks, volatile
internal dynamics, and humanitarian challenges. This situation heightens the
urgency of repatriating such individuals to their countries of origin whenever
possible. Yet despite international pressure toward this end, only around 2,500
Iraqis and 500 individuals from twelve other countries were repatriated in
2022—a relatively small number when considering that an estimated 56,000 women
and minors are still being held in Syria’s al-Hawl detention camp, and around
10,000 men and boys are still in prison.
The report also focuses on the nature of the threat to Africa, addressing the
individual challenges by sub-region (i.e., Central and Southern Africa, West
Africa, and North Africa). In each of these areas, IS, its affiliates, and other
terrorist groups “continued to exploit local conflict dynamics and fragilities
in order to advance their agendas.” This dynamic of terrorist actors operating
in undergoverned spaces has become a pattern in UN reporting, with IS taking
particular advantage of such situations in the Sahel.
IS elements are still actively employing insurgency tactics in Syria and Iraq as
well. Last year, the group claimed 279 attacks in Syria and 483 in Iraq. The
annual number of such attacks is steadily decreasing—in 2020, the group claimed
608 attacks in Syria and 1,459 in Iraq; in 2021, these figures dropped to 359 in
Syria and 1,113 in Iraq. Yet despite being on the defensive in these countries,
the Islamic State is not defeated.
The IS homegrown threat outside of conflict zones also remains a concern, as the
group continues to use online spaces to spread its ideology through propaganda.
This threat is compounded by the fact that foreign terrorist fighters who
traveled to Iraq and Syria to join the group were able to gain battlefield
experience and have since been relocating to their home or third countries. As
the UN report notes, these individuals have “proven to be particularly
sophisticated and lethal.” This threat comes not only from male fighters, but
also from female returnees who have sought to indoctrinate others.
Responses to the IS Threat
The UN report highlights seven efforts that are shaping the current
international response to IS:
Supporting victims of the group
Improving border management and law enforcement
Countering the financing of terrorism
Addressing IS efforts to exploit information and communications platforms and
new technologies (e.g., drones, cryptocurrency, social media)
Countering terrorist narratives and engaging with communities to prevent and
counter violent extremism conducive to terrorism
Fostering international and regional cooperation
Addressing the challenge of suspected IS members and their families in conflict
zones
The report devotes its most significant energy to the last point, underlining
the current repatriation situation and discussing efforts to investigate,
prosecute, rehabilitate, and reintegrate such individuals.
Policy Implications
The indefinite detention of IS-affiliated individuals—some of whom have been
held for over four years—raises a number of humanitarian and security concerns.
With support from the UN and international partners, the United States has
emphasized the need to prioritize repatriation in order to holistically address
the IS threat. Countering the group’s financial and military capabilities
without addressing these detainees would be a mistake.
Not all individuals who traveled to join IS are still supporters of the group
and its ideology. As noted above, however, the international community cannot
ignore the threats posed by returning male foreign fighters with battlefield
experience and radicalized female supporters seeking to indoctrinate others.
Some countries have taken a gendered approach to repatriation, bringing back
women and minors affiliated with the group but not adult men or teenage boys. In
these cases, certain countries have taken a prosecutorial approach to
repatriated adult women, while others have focused solely on reintegration. Yet
such policies (such as not repatriating teenage boys or solely focusing on
reintegration efforts toward adult women) represent a misunderstanding of what
IS seeks to achieve, and reflect age- and gender-based biases. Countries should
be encouraged to not only repatriate these individuals, but also apply proper
prosecution, rehabilitation, and reintegration efforts that combine a gendered
approach with evaluation mechanisms. Doing so could help prevent IS from
returning to its state-building project and discourage new supporters from
joining the group. Countries need to be convinced that it is better to address
this issue head-on—meaning now, and with the proper resources and energy—than to
be caught off guard in the future.
Relatedly, the international community should assess how these issues might be
affected by the February 6 earthquake in Turkey and Syria. Although the foremost
concern amid this horrific humanitarian situation is providing aid to those in
need, it is also important to acknowledge the disaster’s secondary
ramifications, many of which highlight vulnerabilities in the fight against IS.
For example, in the days following the earthquake, at least twenty individuals
may have escaped from a prison in northwest Syria holding IS-affiliated
individuals. And in Turkey, various Austrian, German, and Israeli aid missions
have curbed their efforts due to security threats, with some reports of threats
from IS specifically. Although these may be isolated incidents, countries should
prepare for the fact that the group may take advantage of the precarious
post-disaster environment.
On a positive note, several steps are being taken in the right direction.
Although overall repatriation remains slow, Australia, France, and other
countries long resistant to it have begun to make progress, while Iraq has
restarted its repatriation program after pausing it. Moreover, significant
Dutch, German, and U.S. cases brought against IS-affiliated women—long thought
to be the most difficult to prosecute—have highlighted tools that can be used to
hold them accountable, including legal mechanisms related to war crimes.
Finally, research, risk assessments, and evaluation mechanisms on reintegration
efforts have helped countries determine the next steps needed to focus on
minors, as well as adults once they have left prison.
*Devorah Margolin is the Blumenstein-Rosenbloom Fellow at The Washington
Institute.
China Lasers Hawaii, Prepares for War
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute./February 17, 2023
This [spy balloon's eight-day flight] path certainly suggests China is gathering
intelligence for either a first or second strike on America's nukes.
Combined with the green lasers collecting atmospheric data useful for a strike
by a hypersonic glide vehicle on Hawaii, American defense planners should be
alarmed.
The real story is that the Pentagon was caught off-guard by the recent
intrusions. Only after the Chinese spy balloon penetrated U.S. airspace did the
Pentagon go back over previously collected radar data and realize that there had
been intrusions in previous years.
Deterrence is being eroded as China's Communist Party is fast mobilizing all
society for war.
[T]he laser shower is another warning that war is on the way.
Why was China lasering a dormant volcano on the Big Island of Hawaii? The
Chinese Communist Party is fast mobilizing for war. This preparation means,
among other things, that it is dangerous to assume that China's January 28 laser
shower was for civilian purposes only. Pictured: The sky at night over the
island of Maui, Hawaii. (Image source: iStock)
On January 28, the Subaru-Asahi Star Camera, which livestreams images from the
Subaru Telescope on Hawaii's Mauna Kea, caught images of a shower of green laser
beams lasting just seconds.
The beams were not, as originally thought, from a NASA satellite. They could
have come from only one source: China's Daqi-1/AEMS satellite.
Why was China lasering a dormant volcano on the Big Island of Hawaii?
"It's a Chinese satellite that is measuring pollutants, among other things,"
said Roy Gal of the University of Hawaii Institute of Astronomy to The Hill.
"I'm not sure, and this is my opinion, why the Chinese—who are probably some of
the most prolific polluters on the planet—would be collecting data on pollutants
on this side of the Pacific," Ray L'Heureux, a former chief of staff of Marine
Forces Pacific told the same publication.
Richard Fisher of the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy
Center can think of a few reasons why Chinese scientists want to know about the
atmosphere over Hawaii.
"China's Daqi-1 satellite, a perfect example of the dual-use nature of China's
space program, utilizes a green laser for environmental or greenhouse gas
research, but that data, which provides information about atmospheric density
and heavy weather, could also be used to target China's new hypersonic glide
vehicle," he told Gatestone. "HGVs, as these weapons platforms are called,
require precise weather measurements to deliver warheads precisely on target."
There are other military uses for environmental data. "The satellite over Hawaii
was likely tracking U.S. submarine movements from their point of origin into the
Indo-Pacific, where China's increasingly sophisticated anti-submarine
capabilities could be honed to threaten those U.S. subs in-theater," Brandon
Weichert, author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, told this
site. "Advanced lasers from orbit can comb the depths of the ocean to locate and
track U.S. submarines that are trying to run 'silent and deep.' "
Fisher notes that green lasers can be used to measure seabeds. "It is likely
that China," he says, "has been seeking to develop compact but more powerful
green lasers that can conduct underwater surveillance, perhaps anti-submarine
and anti-mine missions, from space."
January 28, perhaps coincidentally, is the day that China's now-infamous spy
balloon entered Alaskan airspace, in the Aleutians. In its eight-day flight
across the U.S. and Canada, the craft got a good look at two legs of America's
"Nuclear Triad," its nuclear deterrent force.
The balloon, carrying what appeared to be surveillance equipment, crossed into
the lower 48 states on January 31. Before a U.S. Air Force F-22 shot it down on
February 4 off Myrtle Beach, the maneuverable balloon surveilled, among other
facilities, Malmstrom, F. E. Warren, and Minot Air Force Bases, which house all
of America's Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The balloon also passed close to Whiteman Air Force Base, home to the
nuclear-capable B-2 bomber fleet, the second leg of the Triad.
Most ominously, the craft flew close by Offutt Air Force Base, the headquarters
of Strategic Command, which controls all U.S. nuclear weapons.
This path certainly suggests China is gathering intelligence for either a first
or second strike on America's nukes.
Combined with the green lasers collecting atmospheric data useful for a strike
by a hypersonic glide vehicle on Hawaii, American defense planners should be
alarmed.
After the spy balloon intrusion, three other "objects" crossed into North
American airspace. The origins of these intruders, now also taken down, remain a
mystery.
"China is displaying new technology in unconventional ways," Weichert stated.
"This is the start of a much more invasive program of monitoring the U.S.
military in order to glean updated capabilities and intentions."
The real story is that the Pentagon was caught off-guard by the recent
intrusions. Only after the Chinese spy balloon penetrated U.S. airspace did the
Pentagon go back over previously collected radar data and realize that there had
been intrusions in previous years.
"The Americans, meanwhile, are completely left behind," Weichert stated. "Our
lack of decisive, coordinated response to these threats—or our willingness to
readily cover the events up—further diminished deterrence, as China now believes
it can get away with such behavior."
Deterrence is being eroded as China's Communist Party is fast mobilizing all
society for war. This preparation means, among other things, that it is
dangerous to assume that China's January 28 laser shower was for civilian
purposes only.
"No, it's not a risk to Hawaii or anyplace else, too," said the University of
Hawaii's Roy Gal.
Yes, nobody on the ground was burned by the green Chinese beams of light on
January 28, but the laser shower is another warning that war is on the way.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone
Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Ukraine: The Unintended Consequences
Amir Taheri/ Asharq Al-Awsat /February,17/2023
What do you do when you are stuck in a war that you can neither win nor lose?
This is the question that Russian President Vladimir Putin faces as his “Special
Operations” against Ukraine enters its second year. The answer is: you stage
trompe l'œil shows to hide the fact that you are stuck and going nowhere fast.
Last December Putin and his propaganda machine harped on the theme of victory
thanks to General winter which was supposed to clinch victory with its frozen
claws. When that didn’t happen they bought a few favorable headlines by sacking
their commander in Ukraine and throwing their top military chief, General
Grasimov, into the lion’s den. However, it is now clear that Grasimov, a
bureaucrat in uniform with as many medals as a general in an operetta, is no
miracle worker.
This is why we now hear a new tune from the Kremlin: the spring offensive which
is supposed to present Russia with full victory on a platter. The fantasy that,
just as it revives nature, spring would also offer victory to any side that it
favors is as old as the history of war itself.
Over 2,000 years ago the Roman consul Crassus, the richest man in the world in
his time, gambled on a spring offensive in Carrhae and ended up having his head
cut off and sent to the Parthian king on a golden platter.
In the 14th century war between England and France, the English King Edward III
thought that his spring offensive would close the bloody saga. He defeated the
French in Poitier and captured their king. But the fat lady refused to sing the
end of the longest war in history.
In the American Civil War, General Sheridan’s cavalry went deep into “enemy
territory” as part of General Ulysses S. Grant’s spring offensive. Doing a
Sheridan became a military proverb but the fratricidal war didn’t end there.
In 1918 we had the German version of the spring offensive which morphed into
Thanatos on a national scale.
The tragedy in Ukraine, call it special operation if you wish to please Putin,
has evolved into a positional war of small incremental advances and retreats
reminiscent of World War I rather than a 21st century war. In fact the war front
that was established in 2014, with the Russian annexation of the Crimean
Peninsula and establishment of secessionist enclave sin Donbass, has largely
remained unchanged. The spring offensive that Russian propaganda is beating the
drums for is unlikely to change that.
It is, perhaps, more interesting to study the unintended consequences of this
tragic saga. One such consequence is to bring war back into international
conversation as a here-and-now reality.
The idea that war could somehow be scripted out of the human story as did incest
or slavery is exposed for what it is: a dangerous fantasy. This has led to
musings about flashbacks to military doctrines that many believed or hoped had
faded away.
Almost half a century ago the US abolished the draft in favor of an all
volunteer force. Most other Western democracies and some developing nations
followed the example. Today, however, some form of return to the draft system is
publicly debated in several capitals. Defense spending that had been considered
as a luxurious conceit is now regarded as vital for national security and
independence.
Before the Ukraine tragedy reducing military expenditure was a standard device
for cutting budget deficits.
In 2022, however, more than 40 nations increased their defence budgets while
embarking on massive programs to renew their arsenals and develop more advanced
weapons systems.
Thus, one unintended consequence of the Ukraine tragedy may be a new arms race
that Russia is visibly unable to win. It could also face China with a hard
choice between joining the race and thus limiting the resources needed for
bringing more of its people out of poverty or staying out and scaling down its
ambition for global leadership.
Another unintended consequence may be the downgrading of diplomacy as the chief
tool of conflict resolution on global scale. With the United Nations already
marginalized, the ability of international diplomacy to end or at least moderate
many small or big regional conflicts would be reduced further.
The Ukraine tragedy has also boosted a trend that started in the early days of
the new century towards privatization of war. The best information available
shows that private war has become a lucrative global business employing tens of
thousands of people and affecting more than a dozen countries in Latin America,
Africa and the Middle East. In some places, such as the eastern regions of
Congo-Kinshasa, privatized war has become a key factor in controlling access to
rare mineral resources of strategic importance.
Another unintended consequence is the emergence of a big question mark about
Russia’s integration as a major player into what Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris
Yeltsin descried as “our common European home.” The classical Russian debate
between Slavophiles and Westernizers reflected the Russian reality with its
inherent contradictions. Putin offers an ersatz version of Slavophilia which -
the Slavic nations already integrated into “the common European home”- leaves
Russia with no choice but to look east to China and accept to play second fiddle
to a power with structures and ambitions alien to the average Russian.
The most significant unintended consequence of the Ukraine tragedy may be the
derailing of the so-called globalization process. Two decades ago all the talk
was about comparative advantage and delocalization. Today people talk of
re-localization and rebuilding “our own industry”. This may turn out to be a
return to the corn-law economic mentality and protectionism which could spell
disaster for many countries or offer an overdue correction to globalization gone
too far.
Invading Ukraine was an unnecessary move which, in Talleyrand’s view, is worse
than making a mistake. It has let too many genies out for anyone to control let
alone push them back into their bottles.
Well, spring isn’t far away and Putin may have his offensive. But the question
remains: then what?