English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 17/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
If the owner of the house had known at what hour the thief was coming, he would not have let his house be broken into.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12/35-44:”‘Be dressed for action and have your lamps lit; be like those who are waiting for their master to return from the wedding banquet, so that they may open the door for him as soon as he comes and knocks. Blessed are those slaves whom the master finds alert when he comes; truly I tell you, he will fasten his belt and have them sit down to eat, and he will come and serve them. If he comes during the middle of the night, or near dawn, and finds them so, blessed are those slaves. ‘But know this: if the owner of the house had known at what hour the thief was coming, he would not have let his house be broken into. You also must be ready, for the Son of Man is coming at an unexpected hour.’ Peter said, ‘Lord, are you telling this parable for us or for everyone? ’And the Lord said, ‘Who then is the faithful and prudent manager whom his master will put in charge of his slaves, to give them their allowance of food at the proper time? Blessed is that slave whom his master will find at work when he arrives. Truly I tell you, he will put that one in charge of all his possessions.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 16-17/2023
Khamies El Sakra Maronite Tradition -“Drunken Thursday"/Elias Bejjani/February 16/2023
The 18th Anniversary of PM Rafik Hariri’s Assassination and the stalled accountability under the Iranian occupation/Elias Bejjani/February 14/2023
Lebanese Depositors Smash Up, Burn Beirut Banks
Banks Warn against Lebanon 'Isolation'
Mikati tackles developments with Bou Habib, UK officials
Further rise in fuel prices in Lebanon
Berri discusses situation with Ain El-Tineh visitors, meets Iranian Ambassador, Arab League's former Secretary General, former Minister Ghazi Aridi
Depositors set fire outside ABL Head's house in Sin-el-Fil
Protesters set tires ablaze outside banks in Badaro
Mikati chairs meeting over monetary situation and required solutions, meets Khamis, Machmouchi
Mikati pays tribute to three fallen soldiers in Bekaa
Mikati welcomes former PM Saad Hariri
Digital Transformation Strategies & Good Governance in Lebanon” Conference hosted by University of Balamand
S. Nasrallah: He Who Pushes Lebanon towards Collapse Has to Expect Chaos in ‘Israel’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 16-17/2023
Israel demolishes West Bank home of Palestinian attacker
White House: U.S. 'deeply dismayed' by Israeli settlement expansion
The ‘jets to Ukraine’ campaign has become a dangerous distraction
NATO chief says 'time is now' for Turkey to ratify Finland and Sweden membership bids
Vladimir Putin’s failures are fooling the West
Ukrainian 'Kamikaze Drone' Targets Russian Position in Donetsk Oblast
Russia demands the US prove it didn't destroy the key Nord Stream gas pipelines to Europe
Rafsanjani's Family Urges Iranian Authorities to Release his Daughter
US, Iran Hold Indirect Talks on Possible Prisoner Exchange
'No Infighting': Iran Opposition Seeks Elusive Unity to Unseat Regime
US Says Iran-based Saif al-Adel is New Al-Qaeda Chief

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 16-17/2023
The Inter-Arab Incitement War/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 16/2023
The Balloon War/Samir Atallah/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 16/2023
Personal Skirmishes’ Shake Foundations of the Regime in Tehran/Huda al-Husseini/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 16/2023
European Union, Biden Administration Embrace Palestinian Lies/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./February 16, 2023
Helping Syrian Earthquake Victims, Not Assad/Andrew J. Tabler/The Washington Institute/February 16/2023
Raisi Visits China: More Symbolism Than Substance/Henry Rome/The Washington Institute/February 16/2023
Iran’s Mounting Missile Threats to Neighboring Countries/Mohammad Abu Ghazleh/The Washington Institute/February 16/2023

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 16-17/2023
Khamies El Sakra Maronite Tradition -“Drunken Thursday"
Elias Bejjani/February 16/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115838/115838/
Today, February 16/2023, Thursday, the Catholic Maronites in Lebanon celebrate a tradition, and not a religious event. A tradition they call “Drunken Thursday,” which is the day that falls before the beginning of the forty-day fasting ritual-The Lent,that begins on the Ash Monday.
In past years, Maronite families, particularly in the mountainous areas, used to gather on this day at the dinner table to pray, meditate, and thank God for His blessings and gifts. They used to gather to thank the Lord for His gifts, and to supplicate for His blessings and approval before they start fasting, and before the start of austerity and prayers in preparation for the celebration of the resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead, and his ascension to heaven.
The "Drunken Thursday", is neither a Maronite, nor a Christian holiday. Rather, it is a tradition that many of our people no longer celebrate, even if they remember it.
Historically, "drunken Thursday" is an old  tradition, and we do not know in any era of time it existed, and who created it, but it was certainly practiced in our mountains every year on the Thursday before the beginning of the forty-days fasting ritual-The Lent. There is very little information written about it in the books of Lebanese history and the Maronite church records (synaxarium).
Some historical records say that the Maronites used to drink wine and Arak (Ozo) on this day, as a token of joy and partnership between parents and families during their blessed gatherings around the dinner table, as a replicate, concept and symbolism of the secret and last supper of Jesus Christ with his disciples, in a religious bid to give thanks to God for His blessings and gifts that He bestowed upon them.

The 18th Anniversary of PM Rafik Hariri’s Assassination and the stalled accountability under the Iranian occupation
Elias Bejjani/February 14/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115737/115737/
Today, on February 18/2023, Lebanon and the Lebanese people remember with anger and sorrow the 18th anniversary of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s criminal and savage assassination, that took place in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, in broad daylight.
The assassins who carried out the crime, as was confirmed by the Special Tribunal For Lebanon, (STL) were Hezbollah military and intelligence high ranking professional members.
Before the STL ruling that incriminated Hezbollah affiliated assassins, the murderers were well known and revealed by the Lebanese people from the first hour of the assassination occurred.
All evidence confirmed that the Iranian terrorist Hezbollah has committed the massacre with cold blood, and in accordance to a preconceived, well design plotting scheme.
It was also even publicly well known that both regimes in Syria and Iran were behind the horrible crime. Syrian- Iranian intelligence planned and orchestrated the assassination with the protection and supervision of the Syrian occupation forces, as well with help of their installed Lebanese security counterparts and officials.
Despite the money spent by the Lebanese on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (about a billion dollars), that was mandated to investigate the crime by the Security Council, accountability was not carried out, and the court contented itself with naming the individuals who carried out the assassination without being able to arrest or prosecute them, and without indicating who planned and funded the crime, and who gave the orders, namely the Syrian and Iranian dictator oppressive regimes.
In the same context, of the absence of accountability, and despite the knowledge of the parties behind all the assassination crimes that Lebanon has witnessed since the early sixties, the judicial cases of all those who were assassinated under the Palestinian, Syrian and Iranian occupations were and are still are void and none of the killers and those behind them have been held accountable.
In conclusion, as long as the judicial accountability has not taken place to this day, the crime of assassinating Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, as well as all the other assassination massacres  that targeted the constellation of Lebanon’s martyrs, will continue to unfold.
Our prayers goes today to the souls of all the patriotic Lebanese martyrs.

Lebanese Depositors Smash Up, Burn Beirut Banks
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 February, 2023
Several dozen Lebanese protesters attacked banks in a Beirut neighborhood on Thursday, while blocking roads protesting against informal restrictions on cash withdrawals in place for years and rapidly deteriorating economic conditions. At least six banks had been targeted as the Lebanese pound hit a new record low on Thursday, a spokesperson for Depositors Outcry, a lobby representing depositors with money stuck in the country's banking sector, said. A bank in the Badaro neighborhood smoldered as firefighters sprayed water, while riot police stood nearby with shields, Reuters said. Since 2019, Lebanese banks have imposed restrictions on withdrawals in US dollars and Lebanese pounds that were never formalized by law, leading depositors to seek access to their funds through lawsuits and often by force. The Lebanese pound has lost more than 98% of its value since the country's financial sector imploded in 2019. It was changing hands at around 80,000 pounds per greenback on Thursday, dropping from 70,000 pounds just two days earlier. The country's central bank, which has struggled to manage the crisis, did not respond to a request for comment on why the pound had crashed and what it was doing to address the issue. The office of Lebanon's prime minister said work was ongoing to remedy financial conditions in the country. Lebanon made a first step towards securing an International Monetary Fund bailout in April 2022 but, nearly a year later, has failed to carry out the reforms needed to finalize it.

Banks Warn against Lebanon 'Isolation'
Beirut - Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 16/2023
Banks in Lebanon warned of the “gravity” of judicial accusations leveled against a number of them for “money laundering” and said that this will have repercussions on banking transactions. In a first, a new lawsuit affected an Arab bank operating in Lebanon, which is the National Bank of Kuwait (NBK). Mount Lebanon Public Prosecutor Judge Ghada Aoun charged two senior bankers from Bank Audi and Audi Group with money laundering for failing to lift banking secrecy on the accounts of senior figures at the firm. The two bankers are Bank Audi Group CEO Samir Hanna, and Deputy Group CEO Tamer Ghazaleh. Aoun’s move was based on a complaint filed by civil society group The People Want to Reform the System against banks “breach of trust and fraud against depositors,” as well as “misuse of public funds.” Aoun called on several banks to lift banking secrecy from the chairmen and members of their boards of directors, supervisory commissioners, and auditors, under penalty of being prosecuted for the crime of money laundering. The Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL) had issued a short statement warning against Aoun’s decision. The ABL said the move may push major international banks to completely stop their dealings with Lebanon by closing the accounts of the Lebanese banks with them. “Regret will not work if Lebanon is financially isolated from the world,” warned the association. These accusations mean closing Lebanon’s financial outlets abroad, as correspondent banks can freeze Lebanese financial operations as a precaution due to filed lawsuits, banking sources explained to Asharq Al-Awsat. “This means that no money transfers from Lebanon will be received by correspondent banks abroad,” sources added. The move was described as “vengeful” by the ABL. “Aoun’s move could transform the economy into a cash economy, which threatens, at a later stage, local money transfer companies as well,” banking sources warned. The People Want to Reform the System said that BLOM Bank and Credit Libanais Bank, going against the ABL, had cooperated with Aoun’s request so far. As for the lawsuit against NBK, a banking official told Asharq Al-Awsat that Aoun’s decision will be received as a negative sign by the Arab bank. According to the official, this comes to worsen a decade-old trend of diminishing activity by foreign banks in Lebanon. An indefinite strike by banks was announced last week following a general meeting of the ABL, although ATMs have remained open.

Mikati tackles developments with Bou Habib, UK officials
NNA/February, 16/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Thursday met at the Grand Serail with Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, Abdallah Bou Habib, with whom he discussed the current situation of the ministry of foreign affairs. Mikati then met with Director General for the Middle East at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, Vijay Rangarajan, in the presence of British Ambassador to Lebanon, Hamish Cowell, with whom he discussed the repercussions of the earthquake that hit Syria and Turkey, and the difficulty of securing aid to stricken regions. For his part, the British official thanked the "Lebanese humanitarian institutions for swiftly responding to humanitarian calls to help those afflicted in quake-hit areas.”Cowell then lauded "Lebanon's strategic role in the region,” calling on Lebanese politicians to expedite the election of a new president.

Further rise in fuel prices in Lebanon
NNA/February, 16/2023
Fuel prices have increased in Lebanon on Thursday with the price of a canister of 95-octane gasoline rising by LBP 55,000, that of 98-octane gasoline by LBP 56,000, that of diesel by LBP 55,000, and that of LP gas by LBP 36,000.
Prices are consequently as follows:
95-octane gasoline: LBP 1,479,000
98-octane gasoline: LBP 1,513,000
Diesel: LBP 1,451,000
LP Gas: LBP 957,000

Berri discusses situation with Ain El-Tineh visitors, meets Iranian Ambassador, Arab League's former Secretary General, former Minister Ghazi Aridi
NNA/February, 16/2023
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Thursday received at the second presidency in Ain al-Tineh, Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, with whom he discussed the latest developments, the current general situation, and the bilateral relations between the two countries.
Speaker Berri also received former Secretary General of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, with whom he discussed the latest developments in Lebanon and the region. Berri later met with former Minister Ghazi Aridi, over the current general situation and political developments.

Depositors set fire outside ABL Head's house in Sin-el-Fil
NNA/February, 16/2023
Angry depositors have rallied outside the house of the Head of the Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL), Salim Sfeir, in Sin-el-Fil, and set fire around its entrance, our correspondent reported on Thursday.

Protesters set tires ablaze outside banks in Badaro
NNA/February, 16/2023
Protesters have set tires on fire outside a number of banks in Badaro, our correspondent reported on Thursday.

Mikati chairs meeting over monetary situation and required solutions, meets Khamis, Machmouchi
NNA/February, 16/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Thursday held a series of urgent meetings at the Grand Serail to discuss the monetary situation and the required solutions. In this context, Premier Mikati presided over a meeting attended by Caretaker Minister of Finance, Dr. Youssef Al-Khalil, Caretaker Minister of Economy and Trade, Amin Salam, Central Bank Governor (BDL), Riad Salameh, a delegation from the Bank’s Central Council, Director General of the Ministry of Finance, George Maarawi, and the Director General of the Ministry of Economy and Trade, Mohammed Abou Haidar.
The meeting discussed the solutions required to address the monetary situation. They agreed to keep the meetings open.On the other hand, Caretaker Premier Mikati met with Caretaker Finance Minister, Dr. Youssef Al-Khalil.  Mikati later received respectively the Director General of the State Employees Cooperative Yahya Khamis, and the Head of the Civil Service Council, Nisreen Machmouchi.

Mikati pays tribute to three fallen soldiers in Bekaa
NNA/February, 16/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Thursday said via Twitter: “The Lebanese Army is destined to always be at the forefront defending our homeland, its sovereignty, its people, and to pay a heavy price with the lives of its soldiers.” Mikati’s tweet went on to pay tribute to the three Lebanese Army martyrs who fell today in the Bekaa Valley. “Praying that God heals the wounded soldiers, deepest condolences go out to the army and its leadership,” Mikati added.

Mikati welcomes former PM Saad Hariri
NNA/February, 16/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Thursday welcomed Former Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, at the former’s residence.

Digital Transformation Strategies & Good Governance in Lebanon” Conference hosted by University of Balamand
NNA/February, 16/2023
The University of Balamand, under the auspices of His Excellency the Caretaker Prime Minister, Mr. Najib Mikati, in collaboration with the Merhis Charity Association, the Transformation and Digital Governance Network in Lebanon, and the Arab Lebanese Council to orchestrate a symposium addressing the pressing matters of digital transformation strategies and good governance in Lebanon.
The conference took place on Thursday, February 16, 2023, at the University of Balamand’s main campus in Koura and was attended by H.E. the Minister of Tourism representing the Prime Minister, Mr. Walid Nassar, the Chairman of the Parliamentary Information Technology Committee, Representative Tony Franjieh, the Minister of Economy Representative and Head of the Consumer Protection Department at the Ministry of Economy, Ms. Lama Alameddine, the President of the University of Balamand, Dr. Elias Warrak, the General Coordinator of the Digital Transformation and Governance Network in Lebanon, Professor Nadim Mansouri, the Director of Public Relations at the Merhis Charity Association, Professor Wadi`a Al-Amyouni, in addition to many experts in the field of digital transformation. The conference was also attended by UOB Deans, faculty members, and students. The conference highlighted the national strategies implemented as part of the digital transformation, emphasizing the significance of educational technology in academic institutions, as well as the knowledge economy and efficient business management in the digital era. Professor Al-Amouni drew attention to the role of digital transformation in the fight against corruption. She explained that by placing technology at the heart of every political, social, and economic strategy, digital transformation can help create a more accountable and transparent system. She added, "Today, in this esteemed academic institution, we aim to raise awareness and formulate recommendations that encourage new ways of critical thinking that are free from corruption, nepotism, and destructive policies that harm the country."
In turn, Professor Mansouri made clear that the Digital Transformation and Governance Network is continuously working towards establishing a cooperative and participatory relationship with various Lebanese government bodies, including the Ministerial Digital Transformation Committee, the Technical Committee, and all specialized committees, in order to address the key issues that the network is focused on. He also expressed his pride in collaborating with the University of Balamand, stating: " The University of Balamand is an institution committed to human advancement and has a clear vision for the future. As a result, a memorandum of understanding has been signed between our two organizations, with the hope that this partnership will serve as a starting point for aligning the efforts of the academic and civil society sectors in implementing digital transformation strategies."
Dr. Warrak stressed on the critical need to incorporate the principles of governance and digital transformation into academic curricula, stating: “Our unwavering enthusiasm for this field stems from our belief that digital transformation is at the core of curriculum development, increased job opportunities, and global academic alignment, while propelling societal advancement”. President Warrak also added: " Following this path not only fosters practicality in daily governmental transactions but also highlights the need to eliminate bribery, unnecessary delays, and political interferences."
M.P. Franjieh brought forth his conviction regarding the indispensable role of the Parliamentary Information Technology Committee, stating: We must ensure that the technological advancement is transparently and accountably, in the best interests of citizens. We must also ensure that the policies we contrive are all-encompassing and easily accessible, taking into account the needs of each and every member of our society, regardless of their social and economic standing." Furthermore, he stressed the need for well-formed policies that govern technology in a manner that fosters good governance.
In Minister Nassar's intervention, he expounded on the Ministry of State for Administrative Reform’s attentive efforts, and highlighted the vital criteria necessary for implementing the national strategy for digital transformation. "This process relies on key factors such as data classification, digital access, platform interconnection, information security, and continuity of government business to ensure effective execution of the plan and application program," he said. He also noted that the primary goal of this strategy is to equip young entrepreneurs with essential digital skills to establish a modern and equitable state.
Moreover, Ms. Alameddine discussed the new economy and the fundamental characteristics that distinguish it from the traditional economy, as well as its potential to support the national economy, particularly in the unprecedented crisis that Lebanon is currently facing. She explained, "One of the most significant features of the knowledge economy is the continued integration of science and technology in all aspects of the economy and its crucial role in the production process.
This conference marked a pivotal collaborative initiative between institutions that are dedicated to digital transformation strategies and good governance, in line with the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the University of Balamand and the Network for Digital Transformation and Governance in Lebanon.

S. Nasrallah: He Who Pushes Lebanon towards Collapse Has to Expect Chaos in ‘Israel’
Marwa Haidar/Al-Manar English Website/Februry 16, 2023
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah directed several threats to the United States on Thursday, vowing that Washington’s scheme in Lebanon will be foiled and that Hezbollah’s retaliation would be ‘unimaginable’. In a memorial ceremony of the Lebanese resistance movement’s martyred commanders, Sheikh Ragheb Harb, Sayyed Abbas Al-Moussawi and Hajj Imad Mughniyeh, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that whoever “pushes Lebanon towards chaos and collapse has to expect chaos in the entire region and especially in the Zionist entity.”His eminence underlined importance of urgent dealing with the dramatic low of Lebanese Lira against US Dollar, as he called to work to find solutions to the harsh economic crisis in Lebanon. As he saluted the resistance of Palestinian people against the Israeli occupation, Sayyed Nasrallah pointed to ‘unprecedented state’ in the Zionist entity, attributed to Israeli concerns over a potential collapse of the occupation regime before completing 80 years on its establishment. The Hezbollah S.G., meanwhile, extended condolences, anew, to Syria and Turkey over the tragedy of the devastating earthquake which killed tens of thousands of people, injured tens of thousands others and left many more homeless, earlier this month.
About the Occasion
Sayyed Nasrallah renewed allegiance to the martyred commanders, vowing to follow their suit in defying challenges in a bid to defend the country and the nation against the enemies’ schemes. “We hold memorial ceremonies of our martyred commanders in a bid to draw lessons and to confront the current challenges we are witnessing,” Sayyed Nasrallah addressed the resistance crowds who attended the memorial services in several regions across Lebanon: Beirut’s Dahiyeh, Bekaa’s Nabi Sheet, and southern towns of Jibsheet and Teir Dibba.
“Our martyred commanders stuck to the resistance path despite all hardships, abandonment and betrayal.” In face of all forms of nowadays’ difficulties, “we will follow suit of our martyred commanders, we will assume our responsibilities and foil the US scheme,” the Lebanese resistance leader vowed.
Islamic Revolution Anniversary
As he congratulated the Iranian nation on the 44th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, he slammed Western media over its biased coverage of the million-man marches which swept the Islamic Republic on the occasion. “Western media turned blind eye to the million-man marches across Iran on the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, as it focused on riots and instigated against the establishment in the Islamic Republic.” Sayyed Nasrallah also addressed those who bet on the collapse of Iran as saying: “You will lose.”
Earthquake in Syria, Turkey
The Hezbollah S.G. referred to the February 6 earthquake in Turkey and Syria as “the most prominent event in the last two weeks.”“We are before a great tragedy that tests the humanity of all of us,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, as he slammed the US over sanctions against the Syrian government. “The US Administration abandoned people in Syria and left them to die due to its oppressive sanctions.”He also criticized double standards adopted by the international community in dealing with the tragedy between Turkey and Syria. As Sayyed Nasrallah thanked all those who responded to Hezbollah’s call to offer aid to quake-hit regions in Syria, he underlined importance of setting earthquake safety plans in Lebanon, noting that “our country is not safe of such risks.”In this context, his eminence hailed the Lebanese official stance towards the Syrian government and praised the domestic response to offer all forms of humanitarian aid to the quake-hit areas.
“Israel’s Curse of Turning 80”
Talking about the situation in the Zionist entity, Sayyed Nasrallah described it as an “unprecedented,” internally and with Palestinians.
“The foolish Israeli government is pushing towards two forms of clashes, the first internally and the second is with Palestinians,” his eminence said, referring to the internal Israeli disagreements and the Palestinians’ operations against the occupation. “Israeli officials are concerned about the collapse of the Zionist entity before completing 80 years on its establishment in 1948,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, hoping that the Zionist entity will be collapsed before turning 80. “The foolish performance of the Israeli government may lead to escalation in the entire region, especially if an aggression is carried out in Al-Aqsa Mosque.”
US Scheme in Lebanon
Sayyed Nasrallah warned that Lebanon has entered, since 2019, a new phase of a US scheme aimed at bringing it back to the era of Washington’s control. “The record low of Lebanese Lira against the US dollar needs to be dealt with urgently,” Sayyed Nasrallah stated, stressing that the US pressures as well as policy of deliberate withdrawal of cash and deposits “are the main causes behind the current economic crisis.” He noted that the US has been exploiting the corruption and the mismanagement of the Lebanese administration to implement its scheme in Lebanon. Sayyed Nasrallah, meanwhile, called for reviving the agricultural and industrial sectors and to seriously invest in Lebanon’s wealth of oil and gas. In this context, he warned against procrastination in extracting oil and gas in the Lebanese territorial waters, reminding the US and the Zionist entity that Hezbollah “was serious in all threats delivered regarding the maritime deal and wealth.”
Hezbollah’s ‘Unimaginable’ Retaliation
Sayyed Nasrallah, meanwhile, stressed that the US scheme of creating chaos and pushing Lebanon towards collapse will fail, warning that the Lebanese resistance party won’t keep mum in this regard.
“We won’t keep mum over US schemes, whoever creates chaos in Lebanon has to expect chaos in ‘Israel’.”“He who wants to push Lebanon towards chaos and collapse has to expect an unimaginable retaliation.”
*Mohammad Salami contributed to this report.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 16-17/2023
Israel demolishes West Bank home of Palestinian attacker
HEBRON, West Bank (AP)/Thu, February 16, 2023
Israeli forces demolished the home on Thursday of a Palestinian behind a deadly shooting in the occupied West Bank, as tensions and unrest surge in the region. The military said the demolition was carried out after an Israeli court rejected appeals to spare the residence. The home, in the flashpoint West Bank city of Hebron, was demolished in a controlled explosion. A flash and then grey tufts of smoke were seen emerging from the apartment in the early morning hours. Israel says home demolitions are meant to deter future attackers but critics say they amount to collective punishment against the families of assailants and only exacerbate tensions with Palestinians. In the fatal shooting incident last year, Muhammed Kamel al-Jabari opened fire at the entrance to an Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank, killing an Israeli man and wounding several civilians before a security guard shot him dead.
The demolition comes as unrest has been roiling the region for months. Israel has been conducting near-nightly arrest raids in the West Bank, which were prompted by a spate of Palestinian attacks against Israelis last spring. Nearly 150 Palestinians were killed in the West Bank and east Jerusalem in 2022, making it the deadliest year in those territories since 2004, according to a leading Israeli rights group. Nearly 50 Palestinians have been killed in those lands just this year, a sign that the fighting has intensified in recent weeks, just as Israel's new, far-right government has risen to power. It has promised to take a tough line against the Palestinians, and already has taken steps to ramp up West Bank settlement building. Israel says most of those killed have been militants. But youth protesting the incursions and others not involved in confrontations have also been killed. Some 30 people were killed in Palestinian attacks against Israelis last year while at least another 11 people have been killed in attacks this year. Israel captured the West Bank, east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip in the 1967 Mideast war. The Palestinians seek those territories for their hoped-for independent state.

White House: U.S. 'deeply dismayed' by Israeli settlement expansion
Jeff Mason and Steve Holland/WASHINGTON (Reuters)/Thu, February 16, 2023
The United States is "deeply dismayed" at an Israeli Cabinet decision to expand Jewish settlement activity in the occupied West Bank, the White House said on Thursday, suggesting President Joe Biden was prepared to take a harder line in dealing with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Such activity "creates facts on the ground that undermine a two-state solution" between Israelis and Palestinians, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters. Senior members of Netanyahu's far-right coalition have sought to further expand settlement in West Bank territory captured by Israel in a 1967 war and where Palestinians aim to establish a state. Most world powers consider Israel's settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem illegal. Israel disputes that and cites biblical, historical and political links to the West Bank, as well as security interests. "We are deeply dismayed by Israelis' announcement that they will advance thousands of new settlements and retroactively legalize nine outposts in the West Bank that were until now illegal under Israeli law," Jean-Pierre said. On Sunday, Israel granted retroactive authorization to nine settler outposts in the West Bank and announced mass construction of new homes in established settlements. "The United States strongly opposes these unilateral measures which exacerbate tensions, harm trust between the parties and undermine the geographic viability of the two-state solution," Jean-Pierre said. She said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made clear during a recent visit to the region that "all parties should refrain from actions that heighten tensions and take us further away from peace." "Settlement construction and activity in the heart of the West Bank to include the legalization of outposts creates facts on the ground that undermine a two-state solution," she said.

The ‘jets to Ukraine’ campaign has become a dangerous distraction
Robert Clark/The Telegraph/February 16, 2023
With spring approaching, Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine is entering a new phase. Western attention has swiftly turned to the idea of sending modern fighter jets to Kyiv; a tricky diplomatic exercise splitting consensus within Europe’s capitals. The reality, which needs to be stated more often, is that sending modern jets would take several years to bear fruition, and, crucially, the very notion is now becoming a dangerous distraction. As things stand, the Ukrainian armed forces are desperately lacking in basic military hardware: ammunition (of which there is a catastrophic Western shortage), artillery, and armoured vehicles. All the focus should be on beefing up these supplies, in order to break the deadlock, repel the imminent Russian offensive, and retake Ukrainian territory. Jets can come at a later stage, on a realistic timescale, but now is the time to focus only on what Kyiv can be given this year. For the arguments around sending planes come at a cost. The meetings, summits and telephone calls take time – time that could be used ramping up Nato production lines and preparing the promised tank contributions for the front line.
Despite the fierce fighting still taking place around Bakhmut, this winter has largely seen both armies digging in across an enormous two thousand kilometre wide front, preparing defensive positions and attempting to consolidate their battlefield gains. Meanwhile, the Russians have been quietly learning from some of their cataclysmic mistakes of 2022: more integrated defensive positions have been constructed; crucial supply lines better protected; and a more capable operational military leadership is now in place under General Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the general staff.
So as winter thaws, all eyes are on the strategies emanating from Moscow. With instructions from Putin to take all of the Donbas this spring, Gerasimov may have upwards of 220,000 fresh conscripts to throw at Ukraine’s defences. Despite these poorly trained “mobiks” performing worse in offensive operations than defence, in a country whose doctrine does not care for battlefield casualties this is still an alarming addition to Russian manpower. Once these fresh conscripts are pressed into the renewed Russian offensive, it will be Western supplies of ammunition and artillery which will repel them, with the promised armoured vehicles and tanks to subsequently punch through the layers of recently constructed Russian defences, and retake Ukrainian ground. Russia will likely attempt to break out across two mini-fronts from the east; one north, and one south, with a potential faint from Belarus on Kyiv distracting Ukrainian efforts. Meanwhile Ukraine will likely press south of Zaporizhia towards Melitopol, attempting to break through the Russian defences. Whilst next generation western jets would be useful in an air-to-air capability, mobile Western air defences have ensured that Russia has never enjoyed air superiority – a critical failing of Moscow’s. Throughout this year’s planned offensives, Western jets therefore likely wouldn’t have the same battlefield effect as increased artillery and armoured vehicles. These will be the key battlefield enablers. Always keep that in mind.
*Robert Clark is the Director of the Defence and Security Unit at Civitas. Prior to this he served in the British Army including combat tours of Iraq and Afghanistan

NATO chief says 'time is now' for Turkey to ratify Finland and Sweden membership bids
FILE PHOTO: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with
Huseyin Hayatsever/ANKARA (Reuters) /Thu, February 16, 2023
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday the "time is now" for Turkey to ratify applications by Finland and Sweden to join the defence alliance.Stoltenberg was speaking at a joint news conference in Ankara with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu after German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock this week said she expects all NATO members to ratify the bids "without further delay".Finland and Sweden applied to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year and their membership bids have been ratified by all allies except Hungary and Turkey. Turkey is widely seen as the main hold-up, with President Tayyip Erdogan indicating his country could ratify Finland's application while not going ahead with Sweden's. Turkey says Sweden harbors members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is seen as a terrorist group by Turkey, the European Union and others. Last month Turkey suspended talks with Sweden and Finland on their applications after a protest during which Rasmus Paludan, leader of the Danish far-right political party Hard Line, burned a copy of the Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm.
Stoltenberg described Koran-burning protest as "a disgraceful act" and said the Swedish government had demonstrated a strong position against the protest which should be praised. "For me, this just demonstrates that Sweden and Finland understand and are implementing policies which recognize the concerns that Turkey expressed. And this is why I think that time has come to ratify," he said. Cavusoglu repeated Turkey's position that it could evaluate Finland and Sweden's bids to join NATO separately. While conceding that Sweden had changed its legislation on terrorism in line with Turkey's demands, Cavusoglu said the changes should be fully implemented. Stoltenberg, who later met with Erdogan in Ankara before departing for southern Turkey to visit earthquake-hit regions, said that the fight against terrorism would be high on the agenda at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July.

Vladimir Putin’s failures are fooling the West
Colonel Richard Kemp/The Telegraph/Thu, February 16, 2023
Another day, and yet more worrying news from the frontline: Ukrainian troops are firing as many as 6,000 artillery shells a day to try and beat back Russia’s new offensive. It is an expenditure rate the West is struggling to feed; so high that Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has said that Ukraine’s forces could run out of ammunition unless they use it more sparingly. His comments remind us of an essential truth: that brute force and, critically, the ability to sustain and replenish it over an extended period, is historically what wins wars in the end.
This rule counters the orthodox interpretation of this war so far. For many, Ukraine’s early success against apparently overwhelming Russian force suggested that high-tech weaponry – and nimbleness in strategy and deployment – were enough to defeat larger forces. It also vindicated the British military consensus that we should invest in cyber, computers, unmanned vehicles, and “ranger” units to train, advise and mentor allies rather than in combat infantrymen, heavy armour and other conventional weapons – sometimes disparagingly referred to as “legacy” capabilities.
But that is not what the war has shown us at all. Indeed, it would be disastrous if Vladimir Putin’s failures fooled the West into thinking that hard military power is a thing of the past. His forces have struggled not because they have relied on the massive use of tanks, armoured vehicles, and troops against a nimbler opponent, but because those capabilities have not been deployed effectively. And on the Ukrainian side, yes, cyber and drones have played a role, with electronic intelligence and airborne surveillance also pivotal. But the true game-changers have been the heavy, punchier weapons provided by the US, such as HIMARS, which have been particularly devastating against Russian logistics bases, starving front line forces of vital combat supplies. Likewise, tanks and armoured infantry fighting vehicles have shown their persistent combat utility, which is why they are at the top of Zelensky’s list for military aid.
But as in all major 20th century conflicts, it is artillery that has been the greatest life-taker on both sides in Ukraine. Not for nothing is it nicknamed the “King of Battle”.
All this underlines the foolishness of the current British defence strategy. It is not enough to invest in small amounts of high-tech weaponry which, at the expense of conventional combat power, was the emphasis of our recent defence review. Britain needs to focus also on the heavy metal of hard ground combat forces. It remains shocking that heavy machines are afforded such low priority that we are down to fewer than 200 tanks – to be reduced to 148 – and Warrior, our only armoured infantry fighting vehicle, is being phased out without obvious replacement. Equally shocking is the lack of investment in artillery. Some have suggested that, faced with a conflict like Ukraine, the British Army would run out of ammunition in a matter of days. That is because, under budgetary pressures, we do not have anything like adequate stocks of ammunition.
Thankfully, Wallace – a true military man – seems to recognise this, and is reportedly asking for a £11 billion increase in the defence budget. But we need more than just money; we need a shift in mindset. It was embarrassing enough that, at the end of the Cold War, we had to cannibalise three armoured divisions to send just one small division to fight in the 1990-1991 Gulf War. But what is worse is that we couldn’t do anything like that today. In Afghanistan, with equipment shortages everywhere, no attempt was made to put the defence industry on a war footing, and armoured vehicles were manufactured with all the urgency of a family saloon, at the cost of British soldiers’ lives. We see this same failure to bite the bullet in the debate on replenishing Ukrainian ammunition stocks, which should have been dealt with many months ago when it became obvious this was going to be a long war. Every day, Russian guns are blasting out three times as many shells as Ukraine’s, but Moscow’s defence industry is on a war footing, with production ramping up and no sign of ammunition shortages. The current arms race between Russia and the West, which we are losing, should serve as a dire warning over the state of our own national defences.
*Colonel Richard Kemp is a former infantry commander

Ukrainian 'Kamikaze Drone' Targets Russian Position in Donetsk Oblast
Storyful/Thu, February 16, 2023
Ukrainian Armed Forces released video on February 15 of a “kamikaze drone” attack on a Russian position near Bila Hora in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. In the footage, at least one Russian soldier can be seen in a bunker underneath a pylon. The video changes to a view from a moving drone. The camera moves closer to the Russian position before the footage cuts out. Ukrainian forces said that the camera was placed on a kamikaze drone which they said targeted the Russian position. The strike location near Bila Hora lies approximately 8.36 miles (13.46 km) southeast of Bakhmut. The region is located in the contested area between Ukrainian and Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, according to the UK Ministry of Defense. Credit: Ukrainian Ground Forces via Storyful

Russia demands the US prove it didn't destroy the key Nord Stream gas pipelines to Europe
Zahra Tayeb/Business Insider/February 16, 2023
Russia is pressuring the US to prove it didn't destroy the key Nord Stream gas pipelines last September.
That comes after a discredited journalist claimed the US and Norway teamed up to blow up the pipelines under the Baltic Sea. Russia said it considers the incident "an act of international terrorism" which could bring "consequences" for the US. Russia is demanding the US prove it didn't destroy the key Nord Stream pipelines to Europe, according to state media. "We qualify the incident as an act of international terrorism that requires a comprehensive and independent investigation," a spokesperson for the Russian embassy to the US said in a statement on Wednesday. Last September, explosions ruptured the Nord Stream pipelines and set the Baltic sea boiling with leaking methane gas. It disrupted the supply of Russian gas to the continent and exacerbated a crippling energy crisis, given Moscow typically supplied about 40% of Europe's natural gas. News of the blown-up pipelines sent European natural gas prices surging 11% to above 200 euros ($191.56) at the time, as worries about the risks to energy supplies to Europe grew. Following the explosion, US and European officials were quick to blame Russia. Sweden concluded the damage to the pipelines was "gross sabotage" at the time. But those accusations have come under pressure after a discredited journalist Seymour Hersh made unproven claims in a self-published article that the US partnered with Norway in a top-secret operation to blow up the pipelines. The White House called Hersh's story "false and complete fiction." Meanwhile, Russia has welcomed Hersh's claims, saying it would bring "consequences" for the US. "It wouldn't hurt if the US, which claims the monopoly on the truth, shifted from empty accusations directed at us to the matter at hand and at least try to prove it wasn't involved in the destruction of the gas pipelines," the spokesperson said. "The Russian side won't allow the situation with the explosions at the critical energy infrastructure to be downplayed, especially given that there's no information about several undetonated explosives that have apparently remained on the sea bed," he added.

Rafsanjani's Family Urges Iranian Authorities to Release his Daughter
London, Tehran/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 February, 2023
The family of the former Iranian president, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, demanded the release of his daughter, Faezeh, who was arrested by the authorities last September on charges of incitement to protest. The Jamaran website, affiliated with the office of the first Supreme Leader Khomeini, reported that the family said they were pressured by the "accusation" of being the sons of Rafsanjani, adding that it was possible to solve the situation by releasing women from political prisons, including their sister Faezeh. Faezeh Hashemi was among 30 Iranian female prisoners who signed a memo last month calling on the Iranian authorities to stop the execution of demonstrators. Iranian authorities released political activists after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei pardoned them earlier this month, including director Mohammed Rasoulof, French-Iranian researcher Fariba Adelkhah, and activist Farhad Meysami. The reformist Etemad newspaper said that the pardon had included 50 detained activists. The released detainees were asked to "express their remorse" in writing, but most released activists issued statements confirming they did not agree to these conditions. Faezeh Hashemi sent a message addressing the Chief Justice of Iran, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, asserting she would continue her activities if released. Her sister, Fatemeh, sparked controversy last month when she posted a video on the seventh anniversary of her father's death, implicitly repeating the suspicions about her father's death. Rafsanjani died of a heart attack while swimming in a pool in northern Tehran. In January, the Iranian authorities released Mehdi, Rafsanjani's son, after more than seven years in prison. He was convicted of fraud, embezzlement, and undermining national security in August 2015. He considered at the time that the sentence was "politically motivated."

US, Iran Hold Indirect Talks on Possible Prisoner Exchange
Washington – Ali Barada/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 February, 2023
The Biden administration is holding indirect discussions with Iran on a possible prisoner exchange to secure the release of American citizens imprisoned in Iran, with Qatar and the United Kingdom playing an intermediary role in the talks, according to NBC news channel.
It quoted four unnamed sources saying that the negotiations made progress, but it remains unclear if a final agreement would be reached. Three sources with knowledge of the talks said the two sides were exploring a formula that has been discussed previously, dating to 2021, that could include a possible prisoner exchange and the release of billions of dollars in funds in South Korean banks currently blocked by US sanctions.The proposed formula would allow Iran access to the funds but only for purchasing food, medicine, or other humanitarian purposes, following the existing US sanctions against Iran.
The sources noted that US and Iranian diplomats had explored possible arrangements to transfer the frozen funds, with a third country, such as Qatar, possibly overseeing the transfer. This month, Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani met his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. The Qatari delegation "conveyed messages from the US to the Iranians, including points on the prisoner release." In an interview this month with the National Public Radio (NPR), Amir-Abdollahian said discussions were underway on a possible prisoner swap with third parties helping to relay messages. He said a "UK official" was acting as a "representative" for the US in the talks. Asked about possible indirect negotiations, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said he could not confirm every detail in the report but noted that Washington has its methods to relay messages to Iran. Price indicated that he would not be able to get into the details of what it is that may be underway, given the sensitivity of the discussions. He said: “We've been unambiguous with the Iranian regime about the priority we attach to seeing the safe and prompt returns of the three Americans that are currently wrongfully held in Iran.""We are committed to doing everything that we can to secure the freedom of the US citizens who continue to be wrongfully detained in Iran, to bring home Siamak Namazi, Emad Shargi, and Morad Tahbaz just as soon as we can."Iran's UN mission in New York did not respond to a request for comment. Namazi has been in an Iranian prison for more than seven years, longer than any US citizen. Iranian authorities sentenced him to ten years on charges of "collaboration with a hostile foreign government." Namazi accused successive US administrations of failing to secure his release and finally went on a week-long hunger strike. The push by the White House comes after months of negotiations to revive a 2015 nuclear agreement have stalled and as the administration has announced new sanctions against Tehran over its delivery of drones to Russia.

'No Infighting': Iran Opposition Seeks Elusive Unity to Unseat Regime
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 February, 2023
Five months since protests broke out in Iran, a divided opposition in and outside of the country is seeking unity that has so far eluded foes of the country. Opponents of the Shiite theocracy, which has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah, have long been known for bashing each other, said AFP. But a push for unity on future strategy and leadership has emerged in the hopes of unseating the regime, as the protests provide it with its most significant challenge yet. While mass demonstrations have subsided, public displays of anger remain, and opposition supporters insist it is only a matter of time before a new protest wave begins. The protests, sparked by the September 16 death in custody of Mahsa Amini who had been arrested for allegedly violating strict dress rules, turned from a push against the obligatory headscarf for women into a movement calling for regime change.
"What is needed is a united front of pro-democracy forces that is broadly inclusive," Arash Azizi, a researcher at New York University, told AFP. A tentative first step was a conference on Friday at Georgetown University in Washington that brought together figureheads of the exiled opposition -- unlikely allies only months before. They included the US-based campaigner Masih Alinejad, Hamed Esmaeilion who represents families bereaved by Iran's shooting down of a Ukrainian airliner in 2020, and Reza Pahlavi, son of the toppled shah. Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi told the conference: "Now is not the time for infighting."The regime has survived 44 years "because we have not been united", Ebadi said in a video message.
'Not competing'
Pahlavi has repeatedly emphasized he is not seeking the return of the monarchy but wants to play a part in creating the first secular democratic system in Iran's history. Speakers at the Washington conference said they were drawing up a charter and would seek a transitional council followed by free elections.
"Today we are not competing with each other, we are not trying to seize control of leadership of this movement," Pahlavi said. He has not commanded universal admiration within the opposition, with some queasy about a failure to distance himself from the authoritarian rule of his father, as well as show transparency about his family's wealth and halt the often aggressive posturing of pro-monarchy supporters on social media. "Pahlavi is for sure divisive for some, as is the case with most other political leaders in today's Iran," said researcher Azizi, author of an upcoming book on the protest movement. Tensions erupted on social media over the weekend when it emerged that Parviz Sabeti, a former high-ranking figure in the shah's notorious SAVAK secret police, had appeared at an opposition rally in Los Angeles. But Pahlavi's stance in the protests has won plaudits among even left-leaning opposition figures and sparked attacks in hardline Iranian media. "It is indisputable that he is the best-known figure in the opposition today and has attracted the most visible and organized support inside and outside the country," Azizi said.
'Driving force'
Within Iran, the regime led by Ali Khamenei has been largely unfazed by calls for change. Opponents on the ground have had to contend with a bloody crackdown that has seen hundreds killed, thousands arrested and so far four executed in connection with the protests.
Prominent dissidents like rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh, filmmaker Jafar Panahi and freedom of expression campaigner Hossein Ronaghi have all been released after stints in jail, while others such as activist Fatemeh Sepehri remain in prison. Former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi this month called for "fundamental change" through a new constitution and free elections, echoing demands by anti-regime forces seeking more than reform from within the system. Sotoudeh told CNN last week: "The protests have somewhat died down, but that doesn't mean that the people are no longer angry. They... still want regime change." In a success for the opposition, organizers of the annual Munich Security Conference have invited civil society representatives to the meeting this week instead of Iranian officials. But opposition leaders face an immense challenge in drawing up a charter that can win international support and legitimacy at home. Not all factions are represented in the nascent coalition, which keeps its distance from the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK), an anti-monarchy group that insists it retains a network of supporters inside Iran. "If there was one driving force for us to unite, it's to debunk this idea that we are so divided we cannot work together... towards democracy," said actor and activist Nazanin Boniadi.

US Says Iran-based Saif al-Adel is New Al-Qaeda Chief
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 February, 2023
Saif al-Adel, an Iran-based Egyptian, has become the head of Al-Qaeda following the July 2022 death of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the US State Department said Wednesday. "Our assessment aligns with that of the UN -- that al-Qaeda's new de facto leader Saif al-Adel is based in Iran," a state department spokesperson said. The United Nations report released Tuesday said that the predominant view of member states is that Adel is now the group's leader, "representing continuity for now." But the group has not formally declared him "emir" because of sensitivity to the concerns of the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan, who haven't wanted to acknowledge that Zawahiri was killed by a US rocket in a home in Kabul last year, according to the UN report. In addition, the UN report said, Al-Qaeda is sensitive to the issue of Adel residing in largely Shiite Iran, AFP reported. "His location raises questions that have a bearing on Al-Qaeda's ambitions to assert leadership of a global movement in the face of challenges from ISIL," the UN report said, referring to another name for the rival group. Adel, 62, is a former Egyptian special forces lieutenant-colonel and figure in the old guard of Al-Qaeda.He helped build the group's operational capacity and trained some of the hijackers who took part in the September 11, 2001 attack on the United States, according to the US Counter Extremism Project. He has been in Iran since 2002 or 2003, at first under house arrest but later free enough to make trips to Pakistan, according to Ali Soufan, a former FBI counter-terrorism investigator. "Saif is one of the most experienced professional soldiers in the worldwide jihadi movement, and his body bears the scars of battle," Soufan wrote in a 2021 article for the West Point Combating Terrorism Center's CTC Journal. "When he acts, he does so with ruthless efficiency," he said.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 16-17/2023
The Inter-Arab Incitement War
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 16/2023
A few days ago, enraged mobs set fire to a building in the British city of Liverpool after rumors spread that the children of asylum seekers housed by the government in the building assaulted a local girl. Whether the story is true or a figment of someone’s imagination, no group should suffer the consequences of an individual’s actions.
Such incitement has become a normal occurrence worldwide. In every corner of the world, we’ve seen groups spread information or ideas that provoke people and incite their hatred for others. Some of these efforts fall under a political or ideological agenda, most stem from a sense of heroism and populism. Ironically, many of those who partake in such actions often describe themselves as compassionate, humanitarian, and other cliches that could not be farther from the truth.
This does not mean that people in the past were all angels, or had no opinion of those around them, be it people, race, nationality, or belief. But even when we did harbor any negative views, they had but little influence.
The truth is, we probably all have a dash of racism infiltrated deep inside, or perhaps some hatred passed down by older generations or brought upon by individual life experiences.
One such example is the mutual ridicule among Arabs. Though it had always existed, the inter-Arab derision has grown significantly in recent times. In some cases, it even turned into dangerous incitement.
Satirical opinions, as such, are not dangerous. They are rather common among neighboring countries, and perhaps the French and British are the perfect example. In fact, the French neighbors may just be Britons’ favorite object of satire.
On the one hand, they love the French cooking, drinking, attire, women, and historical architecture, but they ridicule their sense of superiority and arrogance. The French, too, reciprocate their British neighbors’ praise just as they do their mockery. They admire their superior satire, their great history, their inventions, and their superiority in the creative fields of music, theater, and film, but they criticize their cultural superiority, their historical egotism, and their poor taste in cooking and fashion.
Such is normal life: it can accommodate some ridicule and criticism if they do not turn into vile racism.
Every society has its views of itself and its neighbors, and Arabs are no exception. They are in a permanent state of competition. But in the last few years, things have gone too far, as "frankness" in social media debates continues to plummet to new moral lows, involving even those who are supposedly more educated and socially aware in our societies.
We must keep in mind that the tables can turn quickly with such a condescending mentality that is willing to harm the innocent. The culture of hatred is not a mere rivalry that goes with the wind, but a strong parasite that easily and quickly grows beyond control. Unhinged, it invades your larger community, then your smaller circles, from religions to sects. It travels from other countries to your region and town. With time, it spreads widely enough to become a collective hobby. Incitement is the most dangerous of weapons. It is a lethal tool that causes mass destruction, and the social media that propagates it is as accessible today as kitchen knives.
In the past, we thought that ignorant societies were the most fertile ground to sow the seeds of hatred. But here it is before our own eyes today, on the campuses of respected universities and the tongues of the elite and common people alike.

The Balloon War
Samir Atallah/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 16/2023
The “Fakhr El-Din” play by the Rahbani brothers begins with the scene of actor Roger Assaf sitting in a public place trying to listen to what is happening around him. A passer-by suspiciously asks him: “What are you doing here?” With his apparent naivety, he replies: “I am spying.”
At a time when aerial espionage techniques have reached levels and tools beyond imagination, the Chinese have returned to the balloons, which they send into the American skies to take photos of the beaches and coasts.
While the Pentagon insisted that the balloon was flying over “sensitive cities” in the western United States, the innocent of China asserted that the balloon, which is equal to the size of three buses, was checking the weather conditions, but it got lost in the Seven Falls and carried away by the winds towards the American airspace.
Thank you for the clarification. But, my dear Mr. Chu Wang-chi, we thought that the weather forecast could be obtained from any morning or evening newscast. So we took it as an amusing Chinese joke.
However, the matter seemed dangerous when the Americans shot down a huge unidentified “object” in Chicago, and then a conical-shaped object over Alaska. Thus, the issue is more serious than balloons that have lost their way. Imagination and evidence took us back to the stories of aliens, whose news filled the earth for years, without the men being able to find a trace of them. It was later said that it was part of a war of nerves with the Russians. Nonetheless, talk about recent aerial sightings is official, and it was reported by the Ministry of Defense. It does not rule out that flying objects are sent by unknown creatures. While three of them have been dropped, a search is ongoing for the remains of another.
A state of emergency was declared in the entire US airspace. Mr. Biden was accused of negligence because he hesitated to give orders to drop the objects. As for the White House, it justified the delay by saying that the decision was taken to shoot down the balloon over the sea, for fear that it would carry radioactive materials that would harm the population.
In any case, it’s a funny story that we had never heard of since the invention of the hot air balloon in the mid-nineteenth century. From the very beginning, the balloon was associated with romantic tales, the most famous of which is entitled, “Around the World in Eighty Days”, by French writer Jules Verne (1876). The Frenchman was one of the pioneers of the science fiction novel above land and under the sea.

‘Personal Skirmishes’ Shake Foundations of the Regime in Tehran!
Huda al-Husseini/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 16/2023
Western sources claim that the Leader of the Iranian Republic, Ali Khamenei, was furious when he learned that the death sentence of former Defense Minister Alireza Akbari had been implemented on January 14. In fact, he had asked Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi to use his authority to change Akbari’s sentence to life in prison. And it was at this moment that the Supreme Leader realized that not being involved in the day-to-day administration of his country because of his fragile health had led to a power struggle among the country’s centers of power.
With the execution of Akbari, the infighting became a dangerous, bloody conflict. The Supreme Leader was informed that Ebrahim Raisi knew that Ali Larijani had visited Khamenei after the eruption of the women’s revolution (or the Mahsa Amini uprising) and criticized Raisi’s handling of the situation. Raisi thus issued orders to speed up the implementation of Akbari’s death sentence to retaliate against and intimidate Larijani, who had once been his close friend, throwing the Supreme Leader’s counsel against the wall.
The same sources add that Ali Khamenei asked his son Mojtaba to meet him with Ali Larijani urgently, and the three met that same day. The Supreme Leader told Larijani, a former Parliamentary Speaker, that, despite his complaints, his assessment of Raisi’s performance had been misguided.
Khamenei asked Larijani how he thought matters could be resolved. Larijani explained that he believes that violence is not the solution because it engenders despair, hatred, and anger, which give rise to retaliatory violence. The first thing that must be done, he continued, is the release of thousands of detainees by order of the Supreme Leader, not of Ebrahim Raisi, who had lost the trust of most citizens. Next, the draconian security measures enforced by the Basij must end, and access to the Internet and all social media platforms must be resumed.
Activists say that security forces have killed over 520 people, including dozens of children, and detained over 19,000. After these unlawful arrests and the unfair trials that followed, the judiciary issued harsh sentences, including the death penalty against demonstrators.
Nineteen-year-old Danial Aghili was writing on the walls of Tehran in support of women’s protests on October 11 when he was confronted and arrested by the armed forces.
According to leaked reports, his jailers beat him constantly during the first 48 hours of his detention and offered him nothing to eat or drink.
He was then left out in the cold for hours with a bucket of ice placed over him. Investigators held a stun gun to Aghili’s neck at least six times. He eventually lost consciousness and, for a few minutes, was presumed dead. After the conclusion of the meeting between Khamenei and Larijani, which went on for a while despite the doctors’ orders against putting the Supreme Leader under stress, Khamenei called Ebrahim Raisi and summoned him for an important meeting. Raisi canceled his prior commitments and headed to Khamenei’s home.
Their meeting was brief. Khamenei informed Raisi that he had decided to immediately release all the detainees without exception, adding that all emergency security measures would be lifted. Raisi stayed on his feet throughout the meeting and left visibly shocked. The Supreme Leader’s orders were carried out immediately, and a statement was issued and sent to all news agencies.
The statement was read out on the news repeatedly to confirm Ali Khamenei’s instructions. Some protesters welcomed Khamenei’s decision. However, the majority kept quiet, rejecting topical measures that do not address the heart of the problem, the fundamentalist regime.
To thwart this revolution against his approach to governance, Raisi has played the role of a responsible official working to cement the influence of Iran and its prominence among the powers hostile to the United States. He claims that he is above all of these “personal skirmishes,” operating like they are little more than dust on shoulders that merely need to be brushed off.
There he was, going to China on a three-day trip on Tuesday. This was his first state visit to China and the first state visit to China by an Iranian president in 20 years. It is expected to deepen ties between the two political and economic partners opposed to the US-led Western hegemony over global affairs.
China purchases a lot of oil from Iran. In 2021, the countries signed a multi-billion dollar 25-year strategic cooperation agreement that covers several economic sectors, from oil to mining, industry, transportation, and agriculture.
Both countries have tensions with the United States and seek to present themselves, alongside Russia, as counterweights to US power.
Washington has accused Iran of selling hundreds of attack drones to Russia in an effort to help Russia in its war on Ukraine, and the US has imposed sanctions on the executives of an Iranian drone manufacturer. At the same time, ties between Moscow and Beijing have grown more robust.
In any case, after Akbari’s execution, Ali Khamenei realized that the battle for succession had become bloody. He knows that he must work to transfer power over what remains of his life and that otherwise, the regime could collapse after the period of uncertainty begins.
Despite the parliamentary elections, Iranian democracy is heretical. The country’s political system is totalitarian and autocratic par excellence. Indeed, the Supreme Leader, no one else, has the discretion to choose its president, and the former claims that he derives his legitimacy from god.
And so, the Supreme Leader’s absence will create a vacuum in the most important center of power in Iran, which helps us understand the animosity of the struggle over the position of Supreme Leader. Ali Khamenei has lost the luxury of biding his time. Nearly 86, he suffers from acute health problems and has lost the powerful presence he had enjoyed for forty years since replacing his predecessor, Ruhollah Mostafa Khomeini. Many observers doubt that he can arrange for a smooth and peaceful transfer of power at this stage. The hardline conservatives, Ebrahim Raisi among them, control the armed apparatuses, and they are waiting for their chance to do away with the foundational figures of the regime, who aspire to take a new approach to governance fit for this age, as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has done. This split between the pillars of the regime makes averting a clash after Khamenei dies difficult. Indeed, the Mullah regime will become embroiled in a sharp struggle that will involve several parties, forces, and issues in Iran and the region.

European Union, Biden Administration Embrace Palestinian Lies
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./February 16, 2023
By turning a blind eye to Palestinian lies, fabrications and antisemitism, the Biden administration and the EU are sending a message to the Palestinians that it is perfectly fine to continue demonizing Israel and Jews.
Needless to say, the statement by France, Germany, Italy, Britain and the US totally ignored Abbas's ongoing campaign to vilify Israel, demonize Jews, deny their history and rights to Israel and the Western Wall. In fact, the EU has even been working with the Palestinians to seize as much land as possible to create "facts on the ground" in the large region of "Area C" that officially belongs to Israel.
The statement also totally ignores Palestinian leaders' glorification of terrorists and the Palestinian "pay-for-slay" jobs program that incentivizes Palestinians to murder Jews by rewarding the murderers and their families afterwards.
For the EU and the Biden administration, building new homes by Jewish families is more dangerous than the antisemitic remarks and genocidal rhetoric of Abbas and other Palestinians.
The representatives of France, Germany, Italy, Britain and the US are lying to everyone's face when they claim that the construction of new homes for Jews would "exacerbate tensions between Israelis and Palestinians and undermine efforts to achieve a negotiated two-state solution."
The representatives of Italy, Germany, France, Britain and the US know that the Israeli-Arab conflict started long before the construction of even one house for Jews in the West Bank. All they need to do is listen to what Abbas himself said in Cairo, where he made it clear that the Arab's problem with Israel started already back in 1917, when the Jews were promised a homeland of their own. When Abbas states that the Arabs have exclusive rights to Jerusalem and Palestine, he is actually saying that Israel has no right to exist.
By ignoring Abbas's remarks, those who issued the joint statement that denounces Israel for intending to build new housing units for Jewish families are complicit in the Palestinian campaign of lies and fabrications regarding Jewish history and rights.
By failing to call out the Palestinian leader for his lies, distortions and incitement, the officials from Italy, Germany, France, Britain and the Biden administration are again demonstrating their unbending bias against Israel.
It is time for the EU and the Biden administration to wake up to the fact that the Palestinian leaders are not interested in peace with Israel. They are interested in peace without Israel. The Palestinians do not distinguish between a Jew residing in the West Bank and a Jew residing in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv.
The Palestinian leaders are part of the problem, not part of the solution. The EU and the Biden administration's double standards and failure to see reality as it is, instead of as they wish it to be, are also part of the problem. Only when the EU and the Biden administration take this in will it be possible to start talking about the prospects of a "negotiated solution" for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
It is the Palestinian leadership's refusal to accept Israel's right to exist as the homeland of the Jewish people that is exacerbating tensions between Israelis and Palestinians. It is the Palestinian leadership's massive campaign of incitement against Israel and Jews and continued glorification of terrorists that is aggravating tensions between Israelis and Palestinians. Pictured: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas speaks at an Arab League summit in Cairo, on February 12, 2023. (Photo by Ahmad Hassan/AFP via Getty Images)
The Palestinian Authority and its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, continue to twist, misrepresent and rewrite the history of the Jews as part of an ongoing campaign to delegitimize the State of Israel and the Jewish people. The campaign aims to negate and reject the connection between the Jews and the Land of Israel and foster hatred for Israel and the Jews.
This campaign -- which, in Europe, at least, has been going on for decades -- is being completely ignored by both the European Union and the Biden administration, whose representatives are too busy bashing Israel to notice. By turning a blind eye to Palestinian lies, fabrications and antisemitism, the Biden administration and the EU are sending a message to the Palestinians that it is perfectly fine to continue demonizing Israel and Jews.
On February 12, Abbas participated in a conference at the Arab League headquarters in the Egyptian capital of Cairo. The conference, attended by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Jordan's King Abdullah II, was held to discuss ways to support the Arabs living in Israel's capital, Jerusalem.
Addressing the conference, Abbas repeated his false claim that there was no connection between Jews and Jerusalem, as well as the Western Wall of Temple Mount, part of the retaining wall from the Second Temple of Solomon that was destroyed in 67 CE -- more than 500 years before the Islamic Prophet Mohammad was born in 571 CE -- and that Muslims are now claiming as part of their Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif. Abbas also exposed his antisemitic colors once again by arguing that Israel was created because the Europeans wanted to get rid of the Jews living in their countries, when in fact the Jews have continuously lived in area, first known as Canaan, which included Judea, since at least 1550 BCE, when Jericho was razed.
According to Abbas, the Palestinians are the only ones who have rights in Jerusalem and its holy sites, including the Western Wall, referred to by Muslims as Al-Buraq Wall:
"We have the opportunity at this conference to present a true, documented account of the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque, including the Al-Buraq Wall [Western Wall], an account that refutes the fabricated account on which the occupation is based. We [the Palestinians] have the right to Palestine, Jerusalem, and the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque. We alone have the religious, historical, and legal right to Al-Buraq Wall, which is, as we said before, is part of Al-Aqsa Mosque, and is a valid Islamic property."
Abbas went on to claim that the idea of establishing the State of Israel had nothing to do with Jews achieving their more-than-2,000-year-old dream to live freely in their own homeland. Instead, Abbas argued, Israel was created for two simple reasons: The Europeans wanted to get rid of the Jews living in their countries; and, to serve the interests of "colonial powers" in the Middle East.
In Abbas's opinion, Britain's 1917 Balfour Declaration that supported the establishment of a "national home for the Jewish people" in Palestine was nothing but a "conspiracy led by Britain and the US with the aim of getting rid of the Jews in Europe on the one hand, and the establishment of what was called their national homeland in Palestine on the other hand to serve as an outpost to secure the interests of the colonial countries."
Two days after Abbas's latest attempt to rewrite history and deny any Jewish connection to the land of Israel, his friends in the Biden administration and some European countries issued a joint statement in which they attacked Israel for advancing plans to build new homes for Jewish families in the West Bank:
"We – the Foreign Ministers of France, Germany and Italy, the Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom, and the Secretary of State of the United States – are deeply troubled by the Israeli government's announcement that it is advancing nearly 10,000 settlement units... We strongly oppose these unilateral actions which will only serve to exacerbate tensions between Israelis and Palestinians and undermine efforts to achieve a negotiated two-state solution. We continue to closely monitor developments on the ground which impact the viability of the two-state solution and stability in the region at large."
Needless to say, the statement by France, Germany, Italy, Britain and the US totally ignored Abbas's ongoing campaign to vilify Israel, demonize Jews, deny their history and rights to Israel and the Western Wall. In fact, the EU has even been working with the Palestinians to seize as much land as possible to create "facts on the ground" in the large region of "Area C" that officially belongs to Israel.
The statement also totally ignores Palestinian leaders' glorification of terrorists and the Palestinian "pay-for-slay" jobs-program that incentivizes Palestinians to murder Jews by rewarding the murderers and their families afterwards.
For the EU and the Biden administration, building new homes by Jewish families is more dangerous than the antisemitic remarks and genocidal rhetoric of Abbas and other Palestinians (for instance here, here and here).
The representatives of France, Germany, Italy, Britain and the US are lying to everyone's face when they claim that the construction of new homes for Jews would "exacerbate tensions between Israelis and Palestinians and undermine efforts to achieve a negotiated two-state solution."
It is the Palestinian leadership's refusal to accept Israel's right to exist as the homeland of the Jewish people that is exacerbating tensions between Israelis and Palestinians. It is the Palestinian leadership's massive campaign of incitement against Israel and Jews and continued glorification of terrorists that is aggravating tensions between Israelis and Palestinians. It is also the Palestinian leadership's ongoing efforts to erase Jewish history that are responsible for the mounting tensions.
The representatives of Italy, Germany, France, Britain and the US know that the Israeli-Arab conflict started long before the construction of even one house for Jews in the West Bank.
All they need to do is listen to what Abbas himself said in Cairo, where he made it clear that the Arab's problem with Israel started already back in 1917, when the Jews were promised a homeland of their own. When Abbas states that the Arabs have exclusive rights to Jerusalem and Palestine, he is actually saying that Israel has no right to exist.
Unlike the Europeans and the Biden administration, Abbas's main objection does not note the construction of a few thousand housing units for Jewish families. Abbas's main objection concerns Jews moving from Europe and other parts of the world to live in their own homeland. Abbas's main objection is to Jews' saying that they have religious, historical and legal rights to Jerusalem, the Land of Israel and the Western Wall.
By ignoring Abbas's remarks, those who issued the joint statement that denounces Israel for intending to build new housing units for Jewish families are complicit in the Palestinian campaign of lies and fabrications regarding Jewish history and rights.
By failing to call out the Palestinian leader for his lies, distortions and incitement, the officials from Italy, Germany, France, Britain and the Biden administration are again demonstrating their unbending bias against Israel.
They are allowing Palestinian leaders to continue to spread their lies and fabrications about Israel and the Jewish people. This -- rather than building homes for Jews -- is the real threat to a "negotiated solution" between Israelis and Palestinians.
As noted by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center:
"The objectives of the Palestinians' twisting history, perpetuating inaccuracies and deliberately distorting names, providing incorrect dates and introducing antisemitic elements are to cast into doubt and deny the existence of the Jewish people and its historical connections to the Land of Israel, foster hatred for Israel and the Jews and sabotage any chance of significant dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians."
Abbas has made similar statements about Israel and Jews in the past. In 2018, he said in speech before the Palestinian National Council in Ramallah, the de facto capital of the Palestinian Authority, that the Europeans hated the Jews because of their social and banking activities, including interest on loans. According to Abbas, the State of Israel is colonialist project and alien body that was planted in the region by Christian countries that hated the Jews and wanted to get rid of them.
It is time for the EU and the Biden administration to wake up to the fact that the Palestinian leaders are not interested in peace with Israel. They are interested in peace without Israel. The Palestinians do not distinguish between a Jew residing in the West Bank and a Jew residing in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.
The Palestinian leaders are part of the problem, not part of the solution. The EU and the Biden administration's double standards and failure to see reality as it is, instead of as they wish it to be, are also part of the problem. Only when the EU and the Biden administration take this in will it be possible to start talking about the prospects of a "negotiated solution" for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East
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Helping Syrian Earthquake Victims, Not Assad
Andrew J. Tabler/The Washington Institute/February 16/2023
Washington should take steps to ensure that the Treasury Department’s latest general license does not create new loopholes for the regime, its patrons in Moscow and Tehran, or its foreign terrorist partners.
Earlier this week, the UN Security Council held a closed-door session on the Syria/Turkey earthquake, while Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths conducted a briefing on his visit to the disaster zones in both countries. Soon thereafter, Syrian representative to the UN Bassam Sabbagh announced that the Assad regime had agreed to a three-month opening of two additional humanitarian aid crossings: Bab al-Salam and al-Raii. He specifically mentioned UN aid delivered into northwest Syria and “from inside Syria,” a reference to “cross-line” aid from regime territory to opposition-held areas.
The announcement drew widespread praise from Russia, China, regional states, and Western governments alike. Yet despite the seemingly good news for those suffering from the devastation, Sabbagh’s gesture is too little, too late. For one thing, the regime has not controlled many of the relevant areas for more than a decade. More important, three months’ worth of assistance will hardly be enough to meet worsening humanitarian needs after an earthquake that has so far claimed over 4,000 lives in rebel-held areas and 1,400 lives in regime areas. This is especially true given the regime’s track record of diverting and weaponizing aid provided through Damascus—a category that has historically encompassed around 90 percent of total aid to Syria.
Crucially, the West has ample leverage to change this situation. The United States, Britain, the European Union, and Canada currently provide around 91 percent of the humanitarian that flows into Syria ($2.16 billion of $2.38 billion annually). Washington should therefore take two immediate steps to alleviate suffering in earthquake-affected regions of northwest Syria.
First, it should seek a Security Council resolution ensuring that the reopened crossings remain open for at least one year. Since 2020, cross-border assistance has become a political football at the UN, with Russia using veto threats to reduce the number of crossings to one (Bab al-Hawa) and shorten the aid mechanism’s renewal duration to just six months at a time. The humanitarian liabilities inherent in these narrowed options have been demonstrated once again in the hobbled response to the earthquake in Syria.
Second, and far more complex, is the task of appropriately relaxing U.S. sanctions to support legitimate earthquake relief without fueling the regime’s longstanding campaign to evade responsibility for its numerous violations—which now include everything from wartime atrocities to large-scale narcotics production and trafficking. This dilemma has been further complicated by the fact that some regional countries are pushing to normalize relations with the regime.
On February 9, the Treasury Department issued General License 23 under the header “Authorizing Transactions Related to Earthquake Relief Efforts in Syria.” The third such license issued under the Biden administration, this one aims to ensure that U.S. sanctions do not impede emergency humanitarian activities. Yet it differs from the previous licenses in two key respects. First, it specifically addresses the physical toll of the earthquake rather than focusing solely on the ongoing destruction wrought by the Assad regime. Second, in light of the emergency situation, the license essentially permits transactions with official regime organs. Under the Biden administration, the range of permissible humanitarian activities in Syria has previously been expanded to allow for specific “early recovery” efforts carried out in regime areas by regime entities (e.g., fresh water and sanitation projects). Waiving certain sanctions to enable these activities was understandably deemed necessary in order to ease civilian suffering, which has been worsened by the regime’s continued resistance to political negotiations aimed at ending the war, as outlined under Security Council Resolution 2254. The previous general license likewise exempted more activities in support of civilians in the northeast and northwest—areas that have been outside the regime’s control for nearly a dozen years.
Yet License 23 is far less specific. It simply and quite broadly authorizes “all transactions related to earthquake relief efforts in Syria” for the next six months, controversially including “persons who meet the definition of the term Government of Syria.” The license goes on to state that “U.S. financial institutions and U.S. registered money transmitters may rely on the originator of a funds transfer with regard to compliance...provided that the financial institution does not know or have reason to know that the funds transfer is not in compliance with...this general license.”
The crux of the problem is that transactions with the “Government of Syria” cannot be sufficiently differentiated from the activities of sanctioned individuals and entities affiliated with the Assad regime and its networks. Allowing financial institutions to accept originator descriptions of funds transfers will only exacerbate this problem by drastically lowering the threshold for permissible transactions. In other words, the new license has seemingly created a sanctions loophole that the Assad regime and its Iranian and Russian patrons will no doubt exploit, as they have every other loophole discovered throughout the war. The regime’s connections to U.S.-designated terrorist entities operating in Syria, such as Lebanese Hezbollah, raise further concerns about broadly enabling transactions in this manner.
To properly execute the new license in keeping with U.S. sanctions, the administration should immediately order an intelligence assessment on the earthquake’s destruction, using imagery resources to differentiate structures in Syria that have been toppled or damaged by the earthquake versus the war. This will give Washington a good baseline for determining where earthquake relief is spent and to what degree it is diverted to regime reconstruction activities. One area of particular interest would be East Aleppo, large parts of which have been destroyed by regime shelling and barrel bombing.
In addition, the administration should take steps to break the current cycle—one in which Washington and its allies are often caught flat-footed by unforeseen developments in Syria and backed into corners by Moscow, thereby reducing their options. Formulating a new approach would entail placing greater priority on Syria policy and thinking creatively about how best to achieve U.S. policy objectives, support the Syrian people, and counter the regime and its patrons.
One promising idea is to create a “white channel” for humanitarian and incident-specific aid into Syria, similar to the approach taken with Iran in October 2020, when Washington announced that foreign governments and financial institutions could establish a payment mechanism for legitimate humanitarian exports to that country as long as no funds were transferred to the regime. Creating such a channel for Syria would require simultaneous decisions by like-minded governments to allow the mechanism, as well as the establishment of a sovereign clearinghouse to address transaction risk for shipments in Syria. This would help ensure that the Assad regime and designated organizations do not benefit from or manipulate assistance through the opening created by General License 23, while simultaneously helping Syrian civilians rebuild their homes and lives.
*Andrew Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute, former director for Syria on the National Security Council, and former senior advisor at the State Department.'

Raisi Visits China: More Symbolism Than Substance
Henry Rome/The Washington Institute/February 16/2023
The Iranian president’s high-profile Beijing trip reaffirmed the relationship’s limits—and will probably reinforce Tehran’s uninterest in nuclear compromise.
When Ebrahim Raisi visited Beijing on February 14-16, it was the first such trip by an Iranian president in five years, and the first “state visit” in two decades. In their meetings and subsequent statements, Raisi and President Xi Jinping appeared keen to smooth over the tensions that erupted two months ago following Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia. The main takeaway was that the status quo prevails in China’s relations with Iran.
For the most part, however, this status quo is one of continued frustration for Tehran. Senior Iranian and Chinese officials signed some twenty documents aimed at strengthening ties in areas such as trade, tourism, communications, and agriculture, with the goal of advancing the twenty-five-year cooperation agreement they reached in 2021. According to Iran, the new deals totaled $10 billion, but no specifics were provided, nor were any big-ticket investments or projects announced. In contrast, Xi’s December visit to Saudi Arabia yielded agreements reportedly valued at $50 billion.
The underwhelming commercial announcements reflect a longstanding Iranian complaint. Before leaving for Beijing, Raisi noted that the “backwardness” of the bilateral relationship needed to be rectified—likely both a political dig at his predecessor and a reflection of Tehran’s unfulfilled expectations. Chinese investment in the Islamic Republic has dried up. For example, Iranian data indicates that Afghanistan invested more there than China during Raisi’s first year in office—a striking amount for the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese imports of Iranian non-oil goods have slowed as well (though oil purchases have increased significantly, providing Tehran with a vital source of revenue). Beijing’s hesitancy stems from several factors, including the threat of U.S. sanctions, Iran’s dismal business environment, and a desire to maintain balance with the Gulf states.
Raisi did not leave Beijing empty-handed, however. The stately images of his reception there may give him a minor boost among some constituencies back home, casting him as the leader who is finally able to fulfill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s “Look East” strategy. Raisi was also presumably hoping to draw a line under five months of domestic unrest and project a sense of normalcy, both domestically and internationally.
In addition, Tehran no doubt welcomed Xi’s comments on its nuclear program. According to Chinese state media, Xi noted that his government would “continue to take a constructive part in the negotiations on resuming the nuclear deal, support Iran in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests, and work for an early and proper settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue.” This position aligns closely with Tehran’s, which emphasizes that reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is still viable and under discussion with Western parties. In contrast, U.S. and European diplomats have made clear for months that such a deal is not currently “on the table” given multiple developments—Iran’s positions on an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) investigation that triggered the breakdown in talks in September, Tehran’s military support for Russia’s Ukraine war, and the regime’s heightened repression at home.
Moreover, Xi and Raisi’s joint statement emphasized that the countries “stand firmly against the efforts of certain governments to politicize the work of the [IAEA].” This language endorses Iran’s argument that the agency’s investigation into undeclared nuclear material is inappropriate—a clear shot across the bow just weeks before the IAEA Board of Governors convenes to discuss this issue. Combined with its continued purchases of Iranian oil, China’s political support will likely only reinforce Tehran’s lack of interest in compromise.
For Washington, Beijing’s position on the nuclear issue continues a worrisome pattern. Western officials have long hypothesized about the circumstances under which China would use its considerable leverage to nudge Iran toward compromise, but if its public statements this week are any indication, that point has still not been reached.
Accordingly, the United States should intensify efforts to disrupt Iranian oil exports to China. Washington and its partners should also use diplomatic channels to underscore to Beijing how an unrestrained Iranian nuclear program poses risks to Chinese interests in the region.
*Henry Rome is a senior fellow at . This Policy Alert is published under the auspices of the Institute’s Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East.

Iran’s Mounting Missile Threats to Neighboring Countries
Mohammad Abu Ghazleh/The Washington Institute/February 16/2023
Iran's ballistic missile program poses regional threats that require international solutions.
The latest attack targeting an Iranian defense factory in the city of Isfahan has once again stirred concerns over the danger posed by the Iranian missile system to other nations in the region. Considering Iran’s enhanced missile capabilities and recent instances of Iran or its proxy forces using rockets, the threat of missile attacks on neighboring countries has become an urgent issue. Although Tehran alleges that its missile program is defensive in nature, the international community remains anxious over the possibility of it being used to deliver weapons of mass destruction.
The roots of the Iranian ballistic missile program date back to the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, when Iran began developing missiles as a defensive tool to ward off Iraq’s rocket attacks. In the years following the war, however, Iran continued developing and improving its missile capabilities to project power and influence in the region. One of the key events in Iran’s missile development was its acquisition of North Korean Nodong missiles in the 1990s. These missiles greatly enhanced Iran’s capabilities and became the foundation for its future missile program. Since then, Iran has continued investing in its missile program, and in recent years has achieved great advancements in missile technology, innovating several short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Iran has even developed solid-fuel missiles, which launch faster and move better than liquid-fueled rockets.
Despite international efforts to curb Iran’s missile program, Iran now possesses one of the largest missile arsenals in the Middle East, capable of reaching many neighboring countries. The most prominent weapons, either already extant or under development, include the liquid-fuel two-stage Simorgh missile, the liquid-fuel single-stage Khorramshahr-1 and -2 missiles (BM-25/Musudan), as well as the mid-range Shahab-3 ballistic missile, the mid-range Ghadr-110 ballistic missile, and the solid-fuel two-stage Sejjil ballistic missile. While estimates of the ranges of these missiles vary, each claims a range that allows for the targeting of neighboring countries.
The current missile capabilities represent a major threat to neighboring countries. Already, Iran and its proxies have launched missile attacks on military and civilian targets around the region, including in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq, and many are concerned about more attacks in the future as Iran has demonstrated its readiness to use missiles as a means of flexing its power and exerting its influence in the region. Adding to the concerns over direct threats are the repeated accusations that Iran has transferred missiles and missile technology to its proxies in the region like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. International entities and regional power players have so far attempted to counter Iran through sanctions and diplomatic pressure aimed at limiting Iran’s missile development capabilities. One such example includes the 2006 UN Security Council Resolution No. 1737, which imposed a weapons embargo on Iran and restricted its missile program. Nevertheless, Iran has continued developing its missile capabilities—a sign of the limited impact that these sanctions have had in achieving their desired goals.
On the other hand, diplomatic efforts including negotiations such as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, have failed to address the issue of these missiles in a comprehensive manner. While the JCPOA focused heavily on limiting Iran’s nuclear program, it contained fewer details on any missile program restrictions. Former President Donald Trump cited this lacuna as one of the main reasons for the subsequent U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA. Since then, little progress has been made to restore the deal or any other missile program negotiations, despite numerous attempts at a revival.
With economic and diplomatic tools to pressure Iran largely at a halt, the threat of Iran’s missiles is higher than ever. This situation highlights the necessity of pursuing new methods to effectively handle the threat, which could include any of the following:
Reviving pre-existing diplomatic efforts to counter the Iranian missile program through negotiations, including direct dialogue between Iran and regional powers and multilateral negotiations on the global stage through organizations like the UN. Establishing back-door channels of communication and engaging with Iranian officials in international forums or through intermediaries could help exert additional pressure during the negotiations and ultimately yield successful outcomes. Such a task is not easy, since it would be discredited by power centers in Iran who are not ready to make concessions and who oppose any sort of compromise. Also, the lack of trust between Iran and other regional and international powers stands as a major barrier to reviving diplomatic efforts.
Exploring other constructive approaches, such as regional confidence-building measures. This could include procedures aimed at easing tensions and strengthening dialogue between Iran and its immediate neighbors by focusing on areas of common interests including security concerns and economic development. Once those areas are clearly identified, a framework for regional dialogue can be developed. Again, this proposal faces several obstacles, including the historical tensions that have existed for decades between Iran and its neighbors due to ideological differences and Iran's interference in the internal affairs of its neighbors. These tensions make it hard to construct trust and achieve meaningful dialogue.
Enhancing international collaboration and boosting regional security through intelligence sharing and defense coordination, especially regarding the use of anti-ballistic missile systems. In this context, it is crucial for the countries concerned to develop a common understanding of the threats and means of countering them. However, this type of cooperation must also overcome a lack of trust as well as the diverse political considerations that go into identifying threats. Moreover, intelligence and financial constraints could also limit the state’s ability to contribute to international cooperation efforts or invest in anti-ballistic missile systems, for example.
Expanding international sanctions to limit Iran’s ability to obtain resources and technology for its missile program. This could include measures targeting individuals and entities that participate in the development or spread of Iranian missiles. More specifically, international sanctions can extend to encompass goods and technologies vital for the Iranian missile program such as advanced composite materials, high-strength metals, guidance systems, and more. First identifying these commodities and technologies could then help identify the companies involved in the production or the supply of these materials. This, of course, requires the development of measures of enforcement, including inspections, preventing the smuggling of sanctioned materials, and imposing harsh penalties on companies and individuals who violate those sanctions. These enforcement measures face serious challenges, namely the reluctance of some countries such as China, Russia, and some European countries, to impose sanctions that would harm their economic interests. These attitudes make consensus among countries concerned about Iran's missile program difficult.
The historical context for Iran’s missile development, its current capabilities, and the ineffective international responses to Iran’s missile program demonstrate the pressing need to find a permanent solution to this issue, despite the many challenges. Although the threat of Iranian missiles is felt most acutely by Iran’s neighbors, there is no doubt that international cooperation and coordination will be necessary to aid regional powers in preventing Iranian missile attacks and resolving the issue of Iran’s missile program in the long term.