English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 15/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2023/english.february15.23.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus said to them, ‘Take care! Be on your guard
against all kinds of greed; for one’s life does not consist in the abundance of
possessions
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint
Luke 12/13-21/:”Someone in the crowd said to him, ‘Teacher, tell my brother to
divide the family inheritance with me.’But he said to him, ‘Friend, who set me
to be a judge or arbitrator over you?’And he said to them, ‘Take care! Be on
your guard against all kinds of greed; for one’s life does not consist in the
abundance of possessions.’Then he told them a parable: ‘The land of a rich man
produced abundantly. And he thought to himself, “What should I do, for I have no
place to store my crops?” Then he said, “I will do this: I will pull down my
barns and build larger ones, and there I will store all my grain and my goods.
And I will say to my soul, Soul, you have ample goods laid up for many years;
relax, eat, drink, be merry.”But God said to him, “You fool! This very night
your life is being demanded of you. And the things you have prepared, whose will
they be?” So it is with those who store up treasures for themselves but are not
rich towards God.’
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 14-15/2023
The 18th Anniversary of PM Rafik Hariri’s Assassination and the stalled
accountability under the Iranian occupation/Elias Bejjani/February 14/2023
Lebanon pays tribute to Rafik Hariri on 18th anniversary of his assassination
Lebanese presidential candidate Michel Moawad on putting ego aside to prevent
'chaos'
Association of Banks clarifies that its strike will continue until further
notice
Berri reviews hour issues with 'Democratic Gathering' bloc, receives Islamic
Jihad Movement's Secretary General, Ambassador of Sri Lanka
Bahaa Hariri: On my father's assassination commemoration, we reaffirm the
continuation of his approach, unity of Lebanon
Hariri greets the popular crowds at ‘Center House’: You are Lebanon’s guarantee
and this house will remain open through your presence & devotion
Hariri visits father's tomb, salutes supporters
Citizens and politicians flock to Hariri's tomb in central Beirut
Shea, Rudakov lay floral wreaths on Martyr Prime Minister Hariri’s tomb in
downtown Beirut
Berri urges 'partnership' and 'acceptance of other' on Hariri anniversary
Russia commemorates Rafik Hariri as 'outstanding Lebanese statesman'
Geagea: Hariri's murder an earthquake that killed 'new Lebanon'
Will Lebanon's banks suspend all operations?
Fayyad inspects the pavilion of the Ministry and the Petroleum Administration at
the Cairo International Fair
LF delegation commissioned by Geagea visits Martyr PM Rafic Hariri's tomb in
downtown Beirut, Center House
Taymour Jumblatt visits Martyr Hariri's tomb accompanied by his bloc
Makary mourns Najjar: His theater remained open, he kept writing & producing
even in trying times
Makhzoumi mourns Najjar: He will remain immortal in our minds
Berri meets Secretary-General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement
UNICEF calls on all stakeholders to re-open public schools and ensure all
children are learning
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 14-15/2023
UN appeals for nearly $400m for Syria quake victims
First UN team since quake crosses into rebel-held Syria
Saudi plane carrying aid lands in Syria, first in decade
Iran using Ukraine to become world leader in drone warfare: US
Iran frees some prisoners to appease protest movement
US Still in Dark over Mystery Flying Objects, Rejects China Balloon Accusation
Iran Says US Responsible for Any Israeli Attack against it
Australia Says It Busted Iran Spying Op Targeting Protester
Iranian President Begins Visit to China
Venezuela to Contract for 2 Iran-built Oil Tankers in Challenge to US Sanctions
Syrian White Helmets Criticizes UN over Assad Say on Aid Deliveries
Israeli Government Legalizes 9 Outposts
Israeli Troops Kill Palestinian, 17, in West Bank Clash, Medics Say
Tunisia Expands Arrests of Individuals Accused of ‘Conspiring against State
Security’
Vladimir Putin is about to win the ammunition war against the West
Top US general says Russia has already 'lost' the Ukraine war and has paid an
'enormous price on the battlefield'
As Ukraine Demands Jets, NATO Pushes to Keep Ammo Flowing
Foreign Ministry: Golan will remain Arab and Syrian, Israeli occupation will be
defeated
Titles For
The Latest
English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 14-15/2023
China's Balloon Reveals the Weaknesses in US National Security
Decision-Making/Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/February 14, 2023
Valentine's Day background: What’s its history and why is it
celebrated?/Yahoo/February 14, 2023
'The Global Getaway': More Empty Promises from the EU?/Judith Bergman/Gatestone
Institute/February 14, 2023
Israel’s Power Shift: To Bibi, or Not to Bibi/David Pollock/The Washington
Institute/January 12, 2023
Iran Unveils New Underground Air Base/Farzin Nadimi/The Washington Institute/Februar
14/ 2023
The Earthquake and the Syrian Reality Uncovered/Fayez Sara/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday,
14 February, 2023
Iran obstructs normalization between Turkiye and Syria/Ghassan Ibrahim/Arab
News/February 14, 2023
World now has an alternative to the nuclear deal: ‘the people of Iran,’ former
US National Security Adviser John Bolton tells Arab News/Ephrem Kossaify/Arab
News/February 14/2023
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 14-15/2023
The 18th
Anniversary of PM Rafik Hariri’s Assassination and the stalled accountability
under the Iranian occupation
Elias Bejjani/February 14/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115737/115737/
Today, on February 18/2023, Lebanon and the Lebanese people remember with anger
and sorrow the 18th anniversary of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s criminal and
savage assassination, that took place in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, in broad
daylight.
The assassins who carried out the crime, as was confirmed by the Special
Tribunal For Lebanon, (STL) were Hezbollah military and intelligence high
ranking professional members.
Before the STL ruling that incriminated Hezbollah affiliated assassins, the
murderers were well known and revealed by the Lebanese people from the first
hour of the assassination occurred.
All evidence confirmed that the Iranian terrorist Hezbollah has committed the
massacre with cold blood, and in accordance to a preconceived, well design
plotting scheme.
It was also even publicly well known that both regimes in Syria and Iran were
behind the horrible crime. Syrian- Iranian intelligence planned and orchestrated
the assassination with the protection and supervision of the Syrian occupation
forces, as well with help of their installed Lebanese security counterparts and
officials.
Despite the money spent by the Lebanese on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon
(about a billion dollars), that was mandated to investigate the crime by the
Security Council, accountability was not carried out, and the court contented
itself with naming the individuals who carried out the assassination without
being able to arrest or prosecute them, and without indicating who planned and
funded the crime, and who gave the orders, namely the Syrian and Iranian
dictator oppressive regimes.
In the same context, of the absence of accountability, and despite the knowledge
of the parties behind all the assassination crimes that Lebanon has witnessed
since the early sixties, the judicial cases of all those who were assassinated
under the Palestinian, Syrian and Iranian occupations were and are still are
void and none of the killers and those behind them have been held accountable.
In conclusion, as long as the judicial accountability has not taken place to
this day, the crime of assassinating Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, as well as all
the other assassination massacres that targeted the constellation of
Lebanon’s martyrs, will continue to unfold.
Our prayers goes today to the souls of all the patriotic Lebanese martyrs.
Lebanon pays tribute to Rafik Hariri on 18th anniversary of his
assassination
Najia Houssari/Arab News/February
14/2023
His son, Saad, joined the thousands who gathered in Beirut to mark the occasion,
and seemed moved when the crowds called for his return to politics
In Sidon, Hariri’s birthplace, people marked the anniversary by displaying his
picture with the words: “18 years and Sidon remains loyal. We will not forget, O
martyr of Lebanon”
BEIRUT: Lebanon on Tuesday commemorated the 18th anniversary of the
assassination of Rafik Hariri. Thousands of people gathered at the memorial to
the former Prime Minister in downtown Beirut, alongside his son, Saad Hariri,
sister Bahia Hariri and dozens of political, diplomatic, social, intellectual,
and religious figures and supporters of the Future Movement.
A torch was lit at 12:55 p.m. at the time and place at which a suicide truck
bomb detonated in 2005 as a convoy in which Hariri was traveling passed by,
killing dozens of people and wounding hundreds. Several perpetrators, with links
to Hezbollah, have been convicted by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which was
tasked with investigating and prosecuting the case, for their roles in the
assassination. They remain free as Hezbollah refuses to hand them over.
After withdrawing from political life about a year ago, former Prime Minister
Saad Hariri returned to Beirut for the commemoration of his father. He shared
only a few words with the people gathered at the memorial, saying: “May God help
Lebanon.”
Speaking later from the Hariri residence in Beirut, he added: “You are Lebanon’s
guarantee and I am all yours. I have already told you that this house will
remain open and, God willing, it will remain open with your presence and love.
You are the good people who wept for Rafik Hariri and this house will complete
this journey with you, God willing.”
The security services took strict precautions in the area around the memorial to
protect those who flocked to it from neighborhoods in Beirut and from the north,
the Bekaa, and the south. They raised the blue banner of the Future Movement and
chanted in support of Rafik and Saad Hariri. They also recited verses from the
Qur’an as they offered prayers for the souls of Hariri and the bodyguards who
died and were buried alongside him.
When Arab News spoke to some of those who had gathered at the memorial, they all
pledged their continuing loyalty to Hariri’s memory, and hailed his work to
rebuild Beirut following the 1975-1990 civil war.
“No one was held accountable for Hariri’s assassination and no one is being held
accountable for the (2020) Beirut port explosion. Injustice prevails,” said a
Future Movement supporter from Tripoli.
Many also spoke of their desire for someone to fill the current void in the
country’s Sunni political leadership.
A woman from Beirut said: “Political life in Lebanon will never get back on
track if they keep shooting down the Sunni community. The new Sunni
representatives in parliament are unable to form an effective or balanced bloc.”
Saad Hariri seemed moved when the crowds that had gathered cheered for his
return to politics. He moved away from bodyguards and the security forces to
greet the people and shake their hands.
On Monday, Saad Hariri received a phone call from former President Michel Aoun,
whose media office said had urged him to return to Lebanon after a long absence
because the country needed all of its people on this day.
In the southern city of Sidon, the birthplace of Rafik Hariri, people marked the
anniversary of his assassination by displaying his picture in the streets with
the words: “Eighteen years and Sidon remains loyal. We will not forget, O martyr
of Lebanon.”
Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri said: “On the anniversary of the martyrdom of
Rafik Hariri, we are all called upon to show the political morality in which the
great, late man believed, in agreement, partnership and acceptance of the other.
We thus reject any attempt to harm the Taif Agreement (that ended the civil war)
or Lebanon.”
The US ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, visited the Rafik Hariri Memorial
and laid a wreath.
The Russian ambassador, Alexander Rudakov, also laid a wreath there, and the
Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement describing Hariri as “a great
national figure, a prominent politician and a friend of Russia, who was
assassinated in a despicable terrorist act in Beirut.”
It added: “The assassination of one of the most prominent figures revered by the
Lebanese people remains an irreparable loss for Lebanon and its friends in the
world.
“He played an important role in reaching the Taif Agreement, which put an end to
the bloody and destructive civil war in Lebanon, and he exerted all his efforts
to rebuild the homeland.
“He visited Russia many times and exerted an impressive personal effort in
strengthening and developing the Russian-Lebanese ties.”
Since the assassination of Hariri, Hezbollah has worked quietly but intensively
to integrate Lebanon into the Iranian axis in the region.
Saad Hariri resigned as prime minister following public protests in 2019. After
his failure to form a new government, as a result of arguments between parties
over quotas for ministerial positions, especially from the Free Patriotic
Movement, and his subsequent decision to distance himself from politics, several
groups have tried to share the Sunni political leadership.
Meanwhile, relations with Lebanon’s Arab allies cooled after Hezbollah used its
influence as a platform for adopting a hostile stance toward them and for
efforts to smuggle contraband into them.
Meanwhile, Lebanon has been on downward economic spiral and eventual collapse
since 2019, in particular after the state failed to pay debts owed in foreign
currencies.
On Tuesday, the Lebanese pound dropped to another record low, trading at 73,000
to the dollar; the black market for the currency had closed at 68,000 on Monday.
Some gas stations refused to sell fuel as they awaited instructions on new
prices.
Lebanese presidential candidate Michel Moawad
on putting ego aside to prevent 'chaos'
Jamie Prentis/The National/February 14/2023
The MP wants a 'sovereigntist' and 'reformist' head of state who can lead
Lebanon through a difficult next six years
The circus over who will become Lebanon’s next president continues to scale new
heights. Speaker Nabih Berri has even stopped scheduling presidential sessions
in the deeply divided 128-seat legislature, while two new MPs are holding an
indefinite sit-in in parliament in a bid to find a successor to Michel Aoun.
And then, on Monday, representatives of the US, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and
Egypt warned Prime Minister Najib Mikati — whose cabinet is in a caretaker role
— that they would reconsider “all ties” if Lebanon failed to elect a president.
The governance vacuum comes at a time when Lebanon finds itself entrenched in
one of the worst economic crisis in modern history, blamed on decades of
corruption and mismanagement by the country’s elite. Amid the deadlock, one name
has stood out from the rest in the 11 parliamentary sessions.
Michel Moawad has consistently courted the support of a third of parliament — a
long way off the two-thirds majority required in the first round and the
absolute majority needed in subsequent sessions in the same round — but his
voice still carries weight.
“Having a president is extremely important,” he told The National from his
office in Baabda, minutes away from the presidential palace that Mr Aoun
departed from in October.
“But … it’s not the election of any president. It’s the election of a president
that is sovereigntist, that is reformist, and that is ready to tackle clearly
the issues and problems that have led Lebanon to the total collapse that we are
living in today.”
Politics runs in the family. His mother Nayla was once an MP and minister. His
father Rene was assassinated in 1989 after serving as president for only 17
days.
“I lost my father — I was 17. And, of course, after that, I had that very big
questioning,” he said.
“Is it worth continuing the battle? Or should I drop everything and do something
else? And that has been a question that has haunted me throughout my political
and public life.”
Lebanon has a sovereignty problem
The bloc behind Mr Moawad, which is sometimes referred to as the “opposition”,
is an array of traditional political parties, independent MPs and others linked
to the 2019 protests against Lebanon's ruling classes that led to the collapse
of the government at the time.
But, generally speaking, they are united by their opposition to Iran-backed
Hezbollah, the powerful armed group and political party with significant
influence across Lebanon.
So, when there is talk of a president dedicated to supporting Lebanon’s
sovereignty, Mr Moawad sees a problem where “the state does not have the
monopoly on arms, where the strategic decisions are taken today by Hezbollah”.
He also attributes Lebanon's apparent isolation on the world stage to the
problem of sovereignty.
Gulf countries were once major supporters of Lebanon but have distanced
themselves amid Hezbollah's alleged influence in the country's day-to-day
operations.
Mr Moawad is also keen to stress the important of an independent judiciary —
long politicised in Lebanon — and the need for a meritocratic system.
Hezbollah is believed to support Suleiman Frangieh, a close ally of Syria who is
also from Mr Moawad’s hometown of Zgharta.
Together with its allies, Hezbollah has largely cast blank ballots during
elections to pick a president. The party attributes this to the lack of a
realistic candidate from its opponents in parliament.
A bloc led by the group held the majority in the previous parliament and many
positions in the current cabinet.
That bloc includes the Amal Movement, Hezbollah's Shiite ally, and the Free
Patriotic Movement founded by Mr Aoun.
Protest over obstacles to Beirut port blast probe turns violent
One issue, Mr Moawad believes, is that there is no full consensus within the
opposition grouping.
While he has secured more support, a handful of other votes from potentially
sympathetic MPs have been for other candidates or protest ballots. “I think that
transforming the issue into an issue of a name is a false problem. I wish it was
only a problem of name, we would have found a compromise within days or weeks.
But I believe it's a problem of direction for the country,” he said.
“It's either we decide to have everyone find a solution through freeing the
state institutions from the grip of arms and corruption, and build an inclusive
Lebanon, built on sovereignty and reforms — or we accept the continuation of
things as is today. That will only lead to more chaos.”Mr Moawad's supporters
believe there are enough potentially like-minded MPs inside parliament that they
could at least galvanise an absolute majority.
That would not initially lead to an election — the second rounds of each session
have been abandoned because of a lack of quorum as Hezbollah MPs and their
allies have walked out. But it would at least put them in a powerful position.
Mr Moawad is very open in saying that he would happily stand aside for another
candidate if they are able to secure more votes and have the credentials he
supports. “[It’s] totally true. I think that my candidacy is a political
candidacy and a clear statement. It’s not about me; it's about the project
itself. And any person that could embody this project and [has the chance] to
get elected will have my full support on this.”
It took two and half years for parliament to finally agree on Mr Aoun, which
came after a series of backdoor deals.
The matter was finalised when the Lebanese Forces — currently Mr Moawad’s
largest backer — agreed on a deal with Mr Aoun for the latter to begin a
six-year term as president.
A similar thing will not happen this time, Mr Moawad said as he highlighted the
importance of the next six years.
“We will not allow the revival of the strategy they did in 2014 — block
parliament for two and a half years and then in one way or another impose a
solution that is not acceptable. We have paid a very heavy price for this,” he
said.
“Today, having a bad president will not only have effects on Lebanon in the next
six years, it will have effects on Lebanon in the decades to come. Because in
the next six years, very important decisions will be taken that will have
effects on the generations to come.”
Association of Banks clarifies that its strike will continue until further
notice
NNA/February 14/2023
The Association of Banks denied, in a statement on Tuesday, the circulated news
about ending the banks' strike tomorrow.
The statement affirmed that "the strike remains declared until further notice,"
adding that "the positions of the Association of Banks are issued in clear
statements."Therefore, the Association urged citizens not to rely on any other
sources.
Berri reviews hour issues with 'Democratic
Gathering' bloc, receives Islamic Jihad Movement's Secretary General, Ambassador
of Sri Lanka
NNA/February 14/2023
House Speaker Nabih Berri met at Ain El-Tineh today with the head of the
“Democratic Gathering” bloc, MP Taymour Jumblatt, accompanied by bloc members
including Deputies Wael Abu Faour and Akram Chehayeb, where talks centered on
the general conditions prevailing in the country and the latest political and
daily-living developments, particularly in the educational sector. Following the
meeting, MP Shehayeb said that the aim of the visit was to thank the House
Speaker for his defensive and fundamental role in addressing the educational
matter, specifically the issue of schools and the rights of school instructors.
He added: “There is a meeting this afternoon at the Education Ministry between
the unions and the Education Minister to reach a final settlement hopefully
soon...”Responding to a question whether discussions touched on the issue of the
legislative session, Shehayeb said they tackled all issues, adding that the
Progressive Socialist Party supports everything that facilitates people's rights
and interests. “We support the solution to these problems, and the official
institutions are the right place to address them,” he asserted. Speaker Berri
later received the Secretary-General of the Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine,
Ziad Nakhaleh, at the head of a delegation representing the leadership of the
Movement, whereby the meeting was an occasion to review the latest developments
on the Palestinian scene in light of the escalated Israeli aggression against
the Palestinian people, Islamic and Christian sanctities, and the resistance of
the Palestinian people in the face of said aggression. On emerging, the
Movement’s political bureau member Mohammad al-Hindi said that they valued the
House Speaker’s known positions in support of the Palestinian cause and the
Palestinian people, adding that they were keen on briefing Speaker Berri on the
recent developments that took place on the Palestinian arena, including the
recent confrontations with the occupation forces in the West Bank and the high
morale of the Palestinians in the face of the enemy. He added: “We affirmed to
Speaker Berri the position of the movement which is based on the unity of the
Palestinian people and the choice of jihad and resistance in confronting this
racist and barbaric policy that Israel is carrying out.”Later in the afternoon,
the House Speaker received the newly appointed Ambassador of the Democratic
Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka to Lebanon, Kabila Susanta Jaywera, who came on
a protocol visit upon assuming his new duties in Lebanon.
Bahaa Hariri: On my father's assassination commemoration, we reaffirm the
continuation of his approach, unity of Lebanon
NNA/February 14/2023
Businessman Bahaa Hariri tweeted today in memory of Martyr PM Rafic Hariri,
saying: "On the anniversary of the assassination of my father, Martyr Rafic
Hariri, we reaffirm the continuation of his approach and the project for which
he was martyred, and for the unity of Lebanon and the Lebanese, Muslims and
Christians."
Hariri greets the popular crowds at ‘Center House’:
You are Lebanon’s guarantee and this house will remain open through your
presence & devotion
NNA/February 14/2023
In an issued statement this afternoon, the press office of former Prime Minister
Saad Hariri indicated that following the commemoration ceremony marking the 18th
anniversary of the assassination of Martyr Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in
downtown Beirut, popular crowds from various Lebanese regions flocked to the
“House of Center” where they gathered in the outer courtyard, chanting slogans
of support and devotion to the former Prime Minister. Hariri appeared to the
crowds and saluted them, saying: "You are the guarantee of Lebanon,” adding, “I
have already told you that this house will remain open, and God willing, it will
remain open with your presence and love…You are the good people who wept for
Rafic Hariri, and this house will complete this journey with you, God willing.”
“May the Lord Almighty bless you and reward you with the best, and may He have
mercy on the soul of Martyr Rafic Hariri,” he concluded, reading the “Fatihah”
for his father’s soul to rest in peace.
Hariri visits father's tomb, salutes supporters
NNA/February 14/2023
Al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri visited Tuesday the central
Beirut tomb of his slain father, ex-PM Rafik Hariri, to mark the 18th
anniversary of his assassination. Hundreds of supporters and dozens of political
and social figures had gathered at the tomb since the morning hours. Hariri was
accompanied by his aunt ex-MP Bahia Hariri and his uncle Shafik. After reciting
Quranic verses at the tomb, Hariri saluted the gathered citizens and shook hands
with some of them. “May God have mercy on the martyr Rafik Hariri and may God
help Lebanon,” Hariri said as he left the site. Asked what the scenes at the
tomb meant to him, Hariri said: “They meant the entire world to me.”
Citizens and politicians flock to Hariri's tomb in
central Beirut
NNA/February 14/2023
Thousands of citizens from the various regions and dozens of political,
diplomatic, social, intellectual and religious figures were flocking Tuesday to
the tomb of slain ex-PM Rafik Hariri in central Beirut to commemorate the 18th
anniversary of his assassination. Supporters of al-Mustaqbal Movement, which the
late leader founded, were seen carrying the blue flags of the movement and
banners supportive of its current leader ex-PM Saad Hariri, as patriotic and
partisan anthems blared from loudspeakers. Hariri later arrived at the tomb
where he recited Quranic verses and saluted supporters. Last June, appeals
judges at the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon sentenced two members of
Hezbollah to life imprisonment for their alleged roles in the assassination.
Hassan Habib Merhi and Hussein Hassan Oneissi were tried in absentia at the
court near The Hague, Netherlands, and convicted on appeal in March of five
crimes, including being accomplices to the intentional homicide of Hariri and 21
others, and the wounding of 226 others. Prosecutors appealed after the two men
were acquitted in April 2020 following a lengthy trial that found another
Hezbollah member, Salim Ayyash, guilty of involvement in the Feb. 14, 2005,
blast. Ayyash, who also was tried in absentia, received a life prison sentence.
The trial judges said there was no evidence that Hezbollah's leadership and
Syria were involved in the attack but noted the assassination happened as Hariri
and his political allies were discussing calling for Syria to withdraw its
forces from Lebanon.
Shea, Rudakov lay floral wreaths on Martyr Prime
Minister Hariri’s tomb in downtown Beirut
NNA/February 14/2023
United States Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, visited this morning the tomb
of Martyr Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in downtown Beirut, marking the 18th
anniversary of his assassination, where she laid a wreath in tribute to his
memory.
Russian Ambassador Alexander Rudakov also visited the Martyr Prime Minister’s
tomb and laid a wreath marking his assassination commemoration.
Berri urges 'partnership' and 'acceptance of other' on Hariri anniversary
Naharnet/February 14/2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Tuesday commemorated slain ex-PM Rafik Hariri,
saying his 18th assassination anniversary coincides with “critical moments in
Lebanon.”“That crime aimed at assassinating the country and its people,” Berri
added in a statement. “On his martyrdom anniversary, we are all asked to enjoy
the political ethics in which the great departed believed in terms of consensus,
partnership and acceptance of the other,” the Speaker urged. “This is how we
would prevent the assassination of the Taif Accord and the Lebanon which the
martyr Rafik Hariri and all martyrs entrusted all Lebanese with and this is how
we preserve a unified country,” Berri went on to say.
Russia commemorates Rafik Hariri as 'outstanding
Lebanese statesman'
Naharnet/February 14/2023
Russia has paid tribute to Lebanon’s slain ex-PM Rafik Hariri on the 18th
anniversary of his assassination. In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry
described Hariri as “an outstanding Lebanese statesman and political figure” and
“a friend of Russia,” calling his 2005 murder a “vile terrorist act.”“R. Hariri
played an important role in achieving the Taif agreements, which put an end to
the bloody and destructive civil war in Lebanon in 1975-1990. As a true patriot,
he devoted all his strength and energy to the cause of restoring the homeland in
the post-war period. R. Hariri visited Russia more than once and made a
significant personal contribution to the strengthening and development of
Russian-Lebanese friendly relations,” the Ministry added. “The death of one of
the most popular and influential leaders of the Lebanese people in modern
history was a huge, irreparable loss for Lebanon and its friends around the
world,” the Ministry lamented.
Geagea: Hariri's murder an earthquake that killed
'new Lebanon'
Naharnet/February 14/2023
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Tuesday posted a tweet commemorating
slain ex-PM Rafik Hariri on the 18th anniversary of his assassination. “The
earthquake assassination that killed a major leader and the new Lebanon
project,” Geagea said. Last June, appeals judges at the U.N.-backed Special
Tribunal for Lebanon sentenced two members of Hezbollah to life imprisonment for
their alleged roles in the assassination. Hassan Habib Merhi and Hussein Hassan
Oneissi were tried in absentia at the court near The Hague, Netherlands, and
convicted on appeal in March of five crimes, including being accomplices to the
intentional homicide of Hariri and 21 others, and the wounding of 226 others.
Prosecutors appealed after the two men were acquitted in April 2020 following a
lengthy trial that found another Hezbollah member, Salim Ayyash, guilty of
involvement in the Feb. 14, 2005, blast. Ayyash, who also was tried in absentia,
received a life prison sentence. The trial judges said there was no evidence
that Hezbollah's leadership and Syria were involved in the attack but noted the
assassination happened as Hariri and his political allies were discussing
calling for Syria to withdraw its forces from Lebanon.
Will Lebanon's banks suspend all operations?
Naharnet/February 14/2023
There are “contacts” aimed at persuading Lebanon’s partially-closed banks not to
suspend all services, a media report said on Monday.
“Based on the stance voiced by Association (of Banks in Lebanon)
Secretary-General Fadi Khalaf and the available information, it seems that the
full closure decision will be reconsidered in light of the major disturbance it
might create and the possible popular responses,” al-Joumhouria newspaper
reported. “The closure decision has not been totally dropped, but the evaluation
period will be extended,” the daily added. Banking sources meanwhile told the
newspaper that “the inclination to avoid a full closure grew over the past days,
after it turned out that some who have malicious intentions are trying to depict
banks’ insistence on pressuring officials as being targeted against citizens,
whereas the main objective is to rescue the sector.”
Fayyad inspects the pavilion of the Ministry and the
Petroleum Administration at the Cairo International Fair
NNA/February 14/2023
On the sidelines of his participation in the EGYPS 2023 conference and
exhibition in Cairo, Caretaker Minister of Energy and Water Walid Fayyad
inspected the pavilion of the Ministry of Energy and the Petroleum
Administration at the exhibition.
He also held a series of meetings with representatives of companies interested
in oil and gas exploration in Lebanon, in the presence of the commissioned
members of the Board of Directors of the Petroleum Sector Authority, Wissam
Dahabi and Gabi Daaboul, and Counselor Rita Chahine. Minister Fayyad also met
with representatives of the Seismic Survey Services Company (PGS), which is
working with the Commission on marketing the second licensing round in the
Lebanese marine waters.
LF delegation commissioned by Geagea visits Martyr
PM Rafic Hariri's tomb in downtown Beirut, Center House
NNA/February 14/2023
A delegation from the "Strong Republic" parliamentary bloc, delegated by
Lebanese Forces Party Chief Samir Geagea, visited the tomb of Martyr Prime
Minister Rafic Hariri in downtown Beirut this afternoon, marking the 18th
anniversary of his martyrdom.
The delegation included LF’s Deputy Chief, MP George Adwan, and parliament
members Ghassan Hasbani, Fadi Karam, Melhem Riachi, Ghada Ayoub, Tony Habshi,
Ziad Hawat, as well as former ministers Joe Sarkis and Richard Kouyoumjian.
Afterwards, the LF delegation visited “Center House” where they met with former
PM Saad Hariri, conveying the greetings of Party Chief Geagea, as MP Adwan
underlined the significance of this commemoration.
Taymour Jumblatt visits Martyr Hariri's tomb
accompanied by his bloc
NNA/February 14/2023
Head of the "Democratic Gathering" bloc, MP Taymour Jumblatt, accompanied by
members of the bloc, including MP's Marwan Hamadeh, Akram Chehayeb, Wael Abu
Faour, Hadi Abou El-Hosn, Faisal al-Sayegh, Raji al-Saad & Bilal Abdallah,
visited this morning the tomb of Martyr Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in downtown
Beirut, marking his martyrdom commemoration. The delegation read the "Fatihah"
and prayed for the souls of Martyr Hariri and his companions to rest in peace.
Makary mourns Najjar: His theater remained open, he
kept writing & producing even in trying times
NNA/February 14/2023
Caretaker Minister of Information Ziad Makary mourned today the late Marwan
Najjat, saying on Twitter: “Writer and producer, Marwan Najjar, who followed a
path of success from football to the boundless dramatic world, has passed away,
joining his brother Ramzi and the great Lebanese artists...When theater people
got tired of the war, his theater remained open, and when the local Lebanese
production was absent, he resisted and kept writing and producing...All my
condolences to his widow Ferial and his children, Rana, Lama and Ziad.”
Makhzoumi mourns Najjar: He will remain immortal in our minds
NNA/February 14/2023
MP Fouad Makhzoumi mourned this afternoon the passing of Lebanese writer and
producer Marawan Najjar, in a tweet deeming his absence "a huge and painful loss
for Lebanon and the Arab world."He added that the late Najjar "will remain
immortal in our minds through his lyrical, theatrical and dramatic works that
distinguished him, and were enjoyed and passed on to generations over the
years.""May his soul rest in peace and sincere condolences and prayers for
patience and solace to his family and loved ones," Makhzoumi concluded
Berri meets Secretary-General of the Palestinian
Islamic Jihad Movement
NNA/February 14/2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, is currently meeting in Ain al-Tineh with the
Secretary-General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement, Ziad Nakhleh,
accompanied by a delegation representing the Movement's leadership.
UNICEF calls on all stakeholders to re-open public schools and ensure all
children are learning
NNA/February 14/2023
Public school closures in Lebanon for the past six weeks have caused large and
persistent damage to children’s learning, mental and physical well-being and
safety. UNICEF acknowledges the dedication and commitment of teachers to their
students and understands the negative impact of the economic crisis on their
lives. We also recognize the efforts of the Ministry of Education and Higher
Education to secure the allocation of additional domestic funding to support
teachers. It is time now for all stakeholders to come together to ensure that
all children get back to school and that learning is never interrupted again. We
continue to sound the alarm on the education crisis. When schools close, early
marriage increases, sexual exploitation and abuse of children and child labour
rise. The impact will be devastating on the future and well-being of children
and youth, their families, and Lebanon’s prosperity. The World Bank in a
report[1] estimates that a lost year of schooling would translate into losses to
the Lebanese economy of up to US$2.5 billion in the coming years. UNICEF,
together with the international community will continue our long-standing
support to the education sector to ensure that all children in Lebanon have
access to education. --- UNICEF
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on February 14-15/2023
UN appeals for nearly $400m for Syria
quake victims
AFP/February 14, 2023
UNITED NATIONS: The United Nations launched an appeal for $397 million on
Tuesday to help earthquake victims in Syria, where the disaster has killed
thousands of people and left millions more in desperate need of aid.
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, announcing the appeal at the UN headquarters
in New York, said the funds would bring “life-saving relief” for nearly five
million Syrians and would cover a period of three months. He added that the
world body was in the “final stages” of a similar appeal for Turkiye. “One week
after the devastating earthquakes, millions of people across the region are
struggling for survival, homeless and in freezing temperatures. We are doing all
we can to change this. But much more is needed,” Guterres pleaded. He called on
member states to “fully fund this effort without delay and help the millions of
children, women and men whose lives have been upended by this generational
disaster.” Guterres also urged that aid workers be allowed to operate freely in
Syria, already racked by 12 years of civil war. Activists and emergency teams in
Syria’s northwest have decried the slow UN response to the quake in rebel-held
areas, contrasting it with the planeloads of humanitarian aid that have been
delivered to government-controlled airports. Before the earthquake struck,
almost all of the crucial humanitarian aid for the more than four million people
living in rebel-controlled areas of northwest Syria was being delivered through
just one crossing. Guterres announced on Monday that Syrian President Bashar
Assad has agreed to open two more border crossings from Turkiye to northwest
Syria to allow in aid. “The human suffering from this epic natural disaster
should not be made even worse by manmade obstacles — access, funding, supplies,”
said the UN chief. “Aid must get through from all sides, to all sides, through
all routes — without any restrictions.” The United Nations has already provided
$50 million through its central emergency response fund.
First UN team since quake crosses into
rebel-held Syria
AFP/February 14, 2023
Activists and emergency teams in the northwest have decried the UN’s slow
response to the quake in rebel-held areas
They have contrasted it with planeloads of aid that have been delivered to
government-controlled airports
SARMADA: The first UN delegation to visit rebel-held northwestern Syria since
last week’s earthquake crossed over from Turkiye Tuesday, an AFP correspondent
reported, as anger simmers at the world body’s slow response. More than 35,000
people were killed when the quake devastated swathes of Syria and neighboring
Turkiye on February 6, at least 3,600 of them in Syria, according to government
officials and emergency services in rebel areas. “A multi-agency mission has
gone this morning from the Turkiye side across the border crossing... It’s
largely an assessment mission,” the World Food Programme’s Syria director, Kenn
Crossley, told AFP in Geneva. The delegation comprised deputy regional
humanitarian coordinator David Carden and Sanjana Quazi, who heads the UN Office
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Turkiye. Activists and emergency
teams in the northwest have decried the UN’s slow response to the quake in
rebel-held areas, contrasting it with the planeloads of humanitarian aid that
have been delivered to government-controlled airports. “I don’t want to sit here
and give excuses, but I wanted to share that we are all collectively in the same
place,” Quazi told reporters in the rebel-held town of Sarmada, close to the
border. “I think we also know that it is not enough,” she said, adding that the
UN was doing its best to provide aid to the northwest. They visited a WFP center
in Sarmada and held a 40-minute meeting with officials at the Bab Al-Hawa
crossing — the only transit point on the Turkish border for UN aid deliveries to
rebel-held areas. On a visit to the Turkish side of the Bab Al-Hawa crossing on
Sunday, during which he met Syrian rescue teams, UN relief chief Martin
Griffiths admitted that the world body had “so far failed the people in
northwest Syria.” Griffiths also visited government-controlled areas devastated
by the earthquake. Before the quake struck, almost all of the humanitarian aid
for the more than four million people living in rebel-controlled areas was
delivered from Turkiye through the Bab Al-Hawa crossing.
Saudi plane carrying aid lands in Syria, first in decade
Agence France Presse/February 14/2023
A Saudi Arabian plane carrying aid to quake-hit Syria landed in second city
Aleppo Tuesday -- the first in more than a decade of war, a transport ministry
official told AFP. Planeloads of foreign aid have landed in Syria since a
7.8-magnitude quake struck the war-torn country and neighbouring Turkey killing
more than 35,000 people. "This is the first plane from Saudi Arabia to land on
Syrian territory in more than 10 years," the official said, speaking on
condition of anonymity because he is not allowed to speak to the press. The
Saudi plane landed at Aleppo International Airport carrying 35 tonnes of food
aid, state news agency SANA reported. Two more Saudi planes are scheduled to
land Wednesday and Thursday, another transport ministry official, Suleiman
Khalil, told AFP. The last such flight landed in Syria in February 2012. After
more than a decade of war, President Bashar al-Assad's government remains a
pariah in the West, complicating international efforts to assist those affected
by the quake. The Arab League suspended Syria in 2011 and some Arab countries,
including Saudi Arabia, have severed ties. Saudi Arabia broke off relations with
President Bashar al-Assad's government in 2012 and backed rebels in earlier
stages of the war. Riyadh has pledged aid to both rebel-held and
government-controlled areas of the country. On Saturday, it sent a first aid
convoy of 11 trucks to rebel-held northwestern Syria, loaded with 104 tonnes of
food and tarpaulins, the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said. There was no
direct contact with the Assad government, an official at King Salman
Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre told AFP earlier. More than 3,600 people have
been killed by the quake in Syria alone, according to the government and
emergency services in the rebel-held northwest. The mostly government-controlled
province of Aleppo was badly hit, with more than 200,000 people left homeless,
according to the World Health Organization. Since 2011, the conflict in Syria
has killed nearly half a million people and forced around half of the country's
pre-war population from their homes, with many taking refuge in Turkey. Even
before Monday's earthquake, the majority of the population was in need of
humanitarian assistance. The latest disaster has only piled on more misery.
Iran using Ukraine to become world leader in
drone warfare: US
Arab News/February 14, 2023
LONDON: Iran is becoming a world leader in cheap, military-grade drone
production, the US Defense Intelligence Agency has warned.
Analysts say Tehran is using Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a theater to
advertise its drone capabilities, becoming a key backer of President Vladimir
Putin’s war effort. Three models are known to have been delivered to Russia by
Iran: the Shahed 131 and 136 single-use drones, used to fly kamikaze missions,
and the Mohajer-6, used for airstrikes and reconnaissance. Last week, The
Guardian revealed that Iran had smuggled at least 18 drones to Russia after a
military delegation from Moscow visited Tehran in November to assess Iran’s
drone inventory.
Iran denies that its drones are being used by Russia for military purposes in
Ukraine, but the US government believes it has sufficient evidence — both via
video footage and images of drone debris — to press for harder international
sanctions on Tehran.
The UK, meanwhile, presented evidence to the UN on Monday suggesting Iran has
also supplied military drones to the Houthi militia in Yemen, in breach of UN
resolutions, after a drone and other parts were seized by Royal Navy personnel
belonging to HMS Montrose in February last year. US analysts have compared
images of debris from drone strikes in Ukraine to images of known models of
Iranian drones, in some cases freely available from Iranian government sources.
One US official told The Guardian: “What we have seen is very recognisable
debris from two very different geographical regions that has come from the same
source.” Iranian drones have been used for increasingly varied and ambitious
attacks in recent years, from assaults on Saudi Arabia’s oil industry to the
Mercer Street Tanker attack in 2021. US analysts believe that Iran is ready to
step up its drone program to full-scale participation in conventional warfare,
following experiences in Ukraine. Another American official said the DIA was
declassifying information on Iran’s drone program to raise general awareness of
Tehran’s intentions with the international community to drum up support for
sanctions beyond the US and UK. “The main point is that Iran’s Foreign Ministry
is denying that they are being used. What the US and the UK want to do is
provide irrefutable evidence to a global audience where there may be more
scepticism,” the official said.
Iran frees some prisoners to appease protest
movement
AFP/February 14, 2023
TEHRAN: Iran, rocked by months of protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini,
has released several dozen well-known prisoners in an apparent attempt to
appease critics of the government. The limited amnesty comes as the frequency
and size of rallies have eased off in the winter months since their peak after
the mid-September death in custody of Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurdish
woman. She died after her arrest for allegedly flouting dress rules that demand
women wear hijab headscarves and modest clothing, setting off months of civil
unrest that Iran has generally labeled foreign-instigated “riots.” Hundreds were
killed, among them security forces, and thousands arrested, with four convicts
hanged. Many of those detained are believed to still be behind bars, and those
out on bail still face the threat of ongoing legal cases against them. But as
the street tensions have calmed somewhat, Iran has released a group of
high-profile detainees in recent weeks, a step seen as an attempt to de-escalate
after months of turmoil. The reformist newspaper Etemad ran pictures of 50 newly
liberated figures on its front page. Among them were filmmaker Mohammad Rasoulof,
French Iranian researcher Fariba Adelkhah, and activists.
US Still in Dark over Mystery Flying Objects,
Rejects China Balloon Accusation
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 14 February, 2023
The White House responded Monday to growing and at times fevered speculation
over the shooting down of unidentified aerial objects by saying the targets
could be anything from commercial craft to espionage devices, while denying that
US balloons spy on China. After mounting pressure on President Joe Biden's
administration to explain the unprecedented situation that has seen an alleged
Chinese spy balloon and three mystery objects shot down in North America in just
over a week, officials appeared sure of only one thing: It's not aliens, AFP
said. I just wanted to make sure we address this from the White House," Biden's
press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre said at the top of the first full-blown
briefing since the latest shoot-down of an unidentified object Sunday. "There
have been questions and concerns about this but there is no -- again, no --
indication of aliens or extraterrestrial activity."What actually is going on,
however, remains unclear.
According to the US government, the first of the four objects -- a
sophisticated, high-altitude balloon shot down on February 4 off the coast of
South Carolina -- was part of an ongoing, global "fleet" of Chinese espionage
balloons. China denied this, calling the huge balloon an errant weather research
craft, and lashed out at Washington on Monday. Beijing said more than 10 US
balloons entered Chinese airspace "without any approval" over the last year. As
for another high-altitude balloon spotted in Latin America, China says that was
a civilian flight test device. White House National Security Council spokesman
John Kirby told reporters the US is "not flying surveillance balloons over
China." "I'm not aware of any other craft that we're flying over into Chinese
airspace," he said.
Uncertain origins, objectives
The United States says the large Chinese balloon down on February 4 was
obviously a spy craft and that the debris is currently being plucked from the
Atlantic Ocean for analysis. Crews have recovered important sensor and
electronics parts from the balloon, as well as large parts of the structure, the
US military said Monday. The other three unidentified objects -- shot down
Friday over Alaska, Saturday over the Yukon in Canada, and Sunday over Lake
Huron on the US-Canadian border -- were much smaller, less sophisticated, and
were flying lower than the Chinese balloon from earlier this month.
US officials know little about them -- not even to whom they belonged.
"Countries, companies, research and academic organizations operate objects at
these altitudes for purposes that are not nefarious at all, including scientific
research," Kirby said. Whether they were spying also remains unknown. "Even if
we have no indications that any of these three objects were surveilling, we
couldn't rule that out," he said. Officials also say that the perceived increase
in incidents could be due to an adjustment in radar settings after February 4,
which means items once passing unseen are now caught. "One of the reasons that
we think we're seeing more is because we're looking for more," Kirby said. The
truth will not be clear until debris is collected and that is not simple,
either. In the case of the large Chinese balloon, sea conditions made diving
impossible Monday, Kirby said, while the three subsequent craft were brought
down in "pretty remote, difficult areas to reach."Canadian Public Safety
Minister Marco Mendicino called the location of the debris of the unidentified
object shot down over the Yukon on Saturday "extremely challenging and difficult
to access."
China tensions
In Washington, the extraordinary events are fueling already intense suspicion
about China across both the Democratic and Republican parties -- a trend likely
to grow as the 2024 presidential election approaches. The diplomatic fallout has
already been substantial, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken abruptly
canceling a rare visit to Beijing. China's accusations of US spying prompted
National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson to allege that Beijing has
a high-altitude spying program that has violated the airspace of "40 countries
across five continents." The State Department said China was "scrambling to do
damage control" and that the communist government "has failed to offer any
credible explanations for its intrusion into our airspace." But over the
weekend, Chinese state-affiliated media reported that an unidentified flying
object had been spotted off the country's east coast and that the military was
preparing to shoot it down. Beijing on Monday declined to comment on that
report, referring journalists to the defense ministry, which did not respond to
requests for comment from AFP.
Iran Says US Responsible for Any Israeli
Attack against it
London, Tehran, Tel Aviv/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 14 February, 2023
Iran warned it would firmly respond to any move threatening its security, saying
the US was responsible for any action taken by its ally Israel. The Israeli army
said its Defense Forces and US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched Juniper Oak, a
joint drill Sunday focused on air defense, cyber security, intelligence, and
logistics. Some 6,400 US and over 1,500 Israeli troops, over 140 aircraft, 12
naval vessels, and artillery systems are taking part, making it the nations'
largest-ever joint drill. Juniper Falcon is part of the ongoing strategic
cooperation between the Israeli and US armies and is complementary to Juniper
Oak. "The exercise will focus on aerial defense, cyber and spectrum,
intelligence and logistical scenarios, and will test joint US-Israeli readiness
for potential security events," said the Israeli army. The new maneuvers come
amid renewed Iranian-Israeli tension following a drone attack against a military
facility on Jan. 29. Relations between Iran and the West have been strained over
Tehran's nuclear program and ita supplying of Russia with weapons and long-range
drones in its war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman
Nasser Kanaani said Iran would take "decisive and serious" actions against
security threats and those behind them. Kanaani indicated that Iran had
responded to Israel's attacks against its security, reiterating Tehran's
position against any action by the United States and Israel in the region that
would compromise its safety.
Washington is responsible for any move by Tel Aviv because the US is Israel's
ally and supporter, he asserted, saying the "Zionist entity should consider its
turbulent domestic situation."Moreover, he said Israel was too weak to make a
military move against Iran, remarking that it has “tasted Tehran's firm
response.”On Friday, Iran announced that its security forces arrested the main
perpetrators of the attack on Isfahan. "So far, the involvement of mercenaries
of the … Zionist regime [Israel] in that act has been proven," reported the
state news agency IRNA. Furthermore, Kanaani said Tehran prioritizes lifting
sanctions during negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. He welcomed the
Iraqi mediation to restore diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, hoping it
would lead to progress in the negotiations between the two countries. The
spokesman addressed regional countries, saying cooperation is the best solution
for maintaining security. Kanaani criticized French Foreign Minister Catherine
Colonna, saying her statements would not affect the course of resolving the
issues and misunderstandings between Iran and European parties. On Friday,
Colonna told her US counterpart, Antony Blinken, there must be a stronger
"international response" to the threat posed by Iran's ballistic missiles
program. He stressed that the missile program is defensive and based on legal
rights, international norms, and principles.
Australia Says It Busted Iran Spying Op Targeting Protester
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 14 February, 2023
Canberra said Tuesday it had busted an Iranian surveillance operation targeting
an activist who joined demonstrations in Australia over the death of Mahsa Amini.
Iran has been rocked by nationwide protests after 22-year-old Amini died in
police custody, where she was being held for breaching the country's dress rules
for women, AFP said. Tehran unleashed a major crackdown on protesters, sparking
solidarity demonstrations around the world, including in Australia. Australian
Home Affairs Minister Clare O'Neil said Tehran had been caught spying on the
family of an Iranian-Australian who had participated in the local protests. "It
is perfectly legal for anyone in Australia to criticize a foreign regime, as
tens of thousands of people across the country have been doing in response to
events in Iran," she said in a speech to the Australian National University's
national security college. "What we absolutely will not tolerate, under any
circumstances, are attempts by foreign regimes to disrupt peaceful protests,
encourage violence or suppress views." Without providing details, O'Neil said
Iran had carried out "extensive research" on the Australia-based individual "and
their family". "I'm pleased to say our agencies were on to it like a shot," she
said. "We're not going to stand back and have Australians or indeed visitors to
our country, watched and tracked by foreign governments on our soil." AFP has
approached Iran's embassy in Australia for its reaction to the allegations. The
Australian government is typically reluctant to blame spying or hacking attempts
on particular countries. Asked last December if Iran was spying on Australian
residents, the Australian Federal Police said it was investigating a "range of
allegations involving foreign principals". Iranian police have detained
thousands of people since nationwide protests broke out following the September
16 death of Amini. Authorities say hundreds of people, including dozens of
security personnel, have been killed during the demonstrations, which they
describe as "riots".
Iranian President Begins Visit to China
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 14 February, 2023
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi arrived in China on Tuesday for a three-day
visit, flanked by a large delegation including his central bank chief and
ministers for trade, the economy and oil. Raisi will hold talks with his Chinese
counterpart Xi Jinping in the capital Beijing, with the pair expected to sign a
number of "cooperation documents", Tehran has said. Iran and China have strong
economic ties -- especially in the fields of energy, transit, agriculture, trade
and investment -- and in 2021 signed a 25-year "strategic cooperation pact", AFP
said. Both countries face pressure from Western nations over their positions on
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was launched almost a year ago, and Iran is
already under huge US sanctions due to its nuclear program. Iran has emerged as
one of Russia's few remaining allies as Moscow has been pushed deeper into
international isolation over the invasion.
Western countries have accused Tehran of supplying armed drones to Russia for
use in the war in Ukraine, a charge it denies. In December, Washington outlined
what it said was an extensive relationship between Iran and Russia involving
equipment such as helicopters, fighter jets and drones, with the latter
resulting in new US sanctions. Moscow's offensive in Ukraine is a sensitive
issue for Beijing, which has sought to position itself as neutral while offering
diplomatic backing to its strategic ally Russia.
'Traditional friendship'
Raisi and Xi met for the first time last September at a Shanghai Cooperation
Organization summit in Uzbekistan, where the Iranian president called for
expanded ties. This is the first state visit by an Iranian president to China in
more than 20 years. According to Iranian state news agency IRNA, Raisi will take
part in meetings with Chinese businessmen and Iranians living in the country.
China is Iran's largest trading partner, IRNA said, citing the 10-month
statistics of Iranian customs authorities. Tehran's exports to Beijing stood at
$12.6 billion, while it imported $12.7 billion worth of goods from China.
Raisi is being accompanied by the country's foreign minister and ministers for
the economy, roads and transportation, oil, industry, mining and trade and
agriculture, according to Iranian state television. His delegation also includes
Ali Bagheri, Iran's deputy foreign minister for political affairs and nuclear
negotiator. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Raisi would meet
with Premier Li Keqiang and top Chinese legislator Li Zhanshu. "China and Iran
enjoy a traditional friendship, and it is the strategic choice of both sides to
consolidate and develop China-Iran relations," Wang said. Beijing wants to "play
a constructive role in enhancing the unity and cooperation of countries in the
Middle East and promoting regional security and stability", he added. Raisi's
first visit to China comes days after he declared victory over the nationwide
protest movement triggered by the death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini
following her arrest for an alleged breach of Iran's dress code for women.
Authorities say hundreds of people, including dozens of security personnel, have
been killed and thousands arrested during the protests, which they generally
label as "riots". The judiciary has sentenced 18 people to death in connection
with the protests, according to an AFP tally based on official announcements.
Four people have been executed, triggering international outrage.
Venezuela to Contract for 2 Iran-built Oil Tankers in
Challenge to US Sanctions
London/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 14 February, 2023
Venezuela will contract with an Iranian shipyard to build two oil tankers under
an existing construction agreement bedeviled by payment delays and difficulties
with needed certifications, Reuters cited people familiar with the matter as
saying. This is seen as a challenge to the US sanctions. It comes weeks after
the visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian to Caracas where
he held a meeting with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Mehr News Agency
reported that the two parties "emphasized the strengthening and monitoring of
projects and accelerating their implementation, as well as vigilance in
defending their national interests against external pressures," a statement from
the Iranian Foreign Ministry said. Moreover, Maduro signed a 20-year agreement
to expand ties in the defense, oil, and petrochemical industries during his
visit to Tehran in June. Venezuela’s state-run energy firm PDVSA since last year
has redoubled efforts to buy and lease oil tankers to rebuild its own fleet. Its
maritime operations have suffered from a long-standing lack of capital and US
sanctions that have made it difficult to obtain insurance and receive
classifications essential to navigate in international waters. The two new
Aframax tankers, to be named India Urquia and India Mara, will cost 31.66
million euros ($33.77 million) each, an internal PDVSA document detailing the
proposed agreement showed. The vessels will be built by Iran Marine Industrial
Company (SADRA) at its Bushehr shipyard, which built two previous vessels for
PDVSA, the Aframaxes Arita and Anita, that can each carry 500,000-800,000
barrels of oil. “(Construction of) the India Urquia must start soon,” one of the
sources said. State firms from Iran and Venezuela will start in the coming weeks
a 100-day revamp of the South American nation's largest refining complex to
restore its crude distillation capacity, four sources close to the plan told
Reuters last month. Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri also said India will
consider buying oil from Iran and Venezuela if sanctions are lifted.
Syrian White Helmets Criticizes UN over Assad
Say on Aid Deliveries
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 14 February, 2023
The head of a Syrian opposition-run rescue group on Tuesday denounced a UN
decision to give Syrian President Bashar al-Assad authorization over aid
deliveries through border crossings with Türkiye, saying it gave him "free
political gain". UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Monday Assad had
agreed to allow UN aid deliveries to opposition-held northwest Syria through two
crossings on the border with Türkiye for three months. "This is shocking and we
are at loss at how the UN is behaving," Raed al-Saleh, head of the rescue group
known as the White Helmets, told Reuters. A UN spokesperson was not immediately
available for comment on the complaint. The opposition-held enclave in northwest
Syria was devastated by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake and powerful aftershocks on
Feb. 6, which killed more than 37,000 people in Türkiye and Syria. The White
Helmets, famous for rescuing people trapped in bombed buildings during Syria's
more than 10-year war, said the death toll from the earthquake in the northwest
was 2,274. Many residents of the region were already displaced by Russian and
Syrian bombing in the course of the war. Rescuers and aid groups have complained
about the slow delivery of aid after the earthquake. UN officials have
acknowledged aid was slow initially but said they were stepping up deliveries,
including getting supplies from Türkiye. Large deliveries of aid from Saudi
Arabia and Qatar have begun arriving in the opposition-held enclave ahead of UN
deliveries, Saleh said. "They will make a big difference because they are
entering directly," he said. Later on Tuesday, Saleh said the search operations
for survivors are about to end. "It's about to come to a close. The indications
we have are that there are not any (survivors) but we are trying to do our final
checks and on all sites," he stated.
The group said they were also collecting names of the missing people in the
enclave.
Israeli Government Legalizes 9 Outposts
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 14 February, 2023
The Israeli security cabinet has approved nine outposts in the West Bank as
settlements and planned to build 4,500 settlement units.
The cabinet's decision was taken in a five-hour session attended by ministers.
Representatives of the army or the government's judicial advisor were not
allowed to attend. Ahead of the cabinet's meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu warned that the operations target the Israeli presence, and their
response is to confirm and consolidate its existence more. Israeli Attorney
General Glai Baharav-Miara announced she does not support the government's
efforts to legalize outposts in the West Bank but does not oppose these
"exceptional" measures. Previous Israeli governments refrained from granting
legitimacy to settlement outposts, especially if they were built on private
Palestinian land. The outposts approved as settlements include Avigayil, Beit
Hogla, Givat Harel, Givat Arnon, Mitzpe Yehuda, Malachi Hashalom, Asahel, Sde
Boaz, and Shacharit. The cabinet will ask the Supreme Council for Planning and
Building in the West Bank to convene in the coming days and approve the
construction of thousands of new settlement units to expand existing
settlements. It also decided to reinforce the Israeli police forces and the
border guard in East Jerusalem under the pretext of strengthening deterrence and
the rule of government. Meanwhile, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh
accused Israel of wanting to legalize nine settlement outposts, calling for
"punishing Israel, boycotting it, and considering it an outlaw state."Shtayyeh
said that the defiance of international law and international legality must be
followed by severe punishment. He asserted that all settlements are
illegitimate, stressing that it is time for the world to punish Israel for its
defiance of UN resolutions and US and European policy opposed to settlements
while calling for an end to settlement activities. The Israeli decision is a
challenge to all US officials who visited the region recently, just as it is a
challenge to Security Council Resolution 2334, which criminalized settlements,
said Shtayyeh, hoping to see the Resolution being implemented. Furthermore, the
Secretary-General of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation
Organization (PLO), Hussein al-Sheikh, said the Palestinian leadership would
respond to the recent Israeli cabinet decision. "This is considered an open war
on the Palestinian people and requires immediate international intervention and
binding decisions that would force the occupation to stop its aggression and
measures."Egypt and Jordan condemned the Israeli decisions, while the US asked
Netanyahu for clarifications. Israeli media reported that the US embassy
required Netanyahu's office to explain the new decision. Ynet website said the
mission requested detailed clarifications, especially since those outposts are
illegal. Hamas also rejected the decision, saying it reflected the "fascism and
racism of the occupation's government against the Palestinian people.
The deputy head of the movement's politburo, Saleh al-Arouri, called for
unifying the Palestinian ranks to resist the occupation by all means and tools.
The Israeli National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, said operations in
Jerusalem would expand in the coming days, instructing the police to prepare for
a significant process in East Jerusalem. Ben-Gvir said he was delighted that the
cabinet approved his request to expand security operations against Palestinians
in Jerusalem, adding that he is pushing for a Defensive Shield 2 operation. He
wanted to move forward with the plan whether or not he received additional
forces. He has pushed back at those connected to Netanyahu, who said he has no
authority to act this way. The Defensive Shield operation was the invasion by
Israeli forces under Ariel Sharon's government to suppress the second intifada
in 2002.
Israeli Troops Kill Palestinian, 17, in West Bank Clash,
Medics Say
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 14 February, 2023
Israeli troops killed a 17-year-old Palestinian during a clash with gunmen in
the occupied West Bank on Tuesday, medical officials and witnesses said, and the
army said it had shot a person holding an explosive device. Among areas where
Palestinians seek statehood, the West Bank has seen a surge in violence since
Israel stepped up raids last year in response to several lethal street attacks
in its cities. The Palestinian health ministry described Tuesday's fatality in
Fara refugee camp near Nablus as a 17-year-old male. Witnesses said he was
killed during a clash with troops but it remained unclear whether he was
involved. The army said that it entered Fara as part of wider West Bank sweeps
to seize suspected gunmen and their weaponry. "A suspicious figure approached
the forces with an explosive device, the forces opened fire in response," it
tweeted.
Tunisia Expands Arrests of Individuals Accused of
‘Conspiring against State Security’
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 14 February, 2023
A new wave of arrests in Tunisia has expanded to include businessmen, judges and
security officials who have been accused of “conspiring against state
security.”Tunisian human rights sources estimated the number of detainees at
about 15 individuals. According to the sources, it is likely that the number of
those detained will increase in the aftermath of the arrest of judges Bashir
Akremi and Tayeb Rached. Defense lawyers of those arrested demanded to know
their clients’ whereabouts three days after they were detained by security
services specialized in combating terrorism. Police in Tunisia have arrested
influential businessmen Kamel Eltaief and Samir Kamoun. Abdelhamid Jelassi, a
former senior leader of the Islamist-inspired movement Ennahdha — staunch
opponents of President Kais Saied — and political activist Khayam Turki were
also arrested. Several observers linked Saied’s meeting a few days ago with
Justice Minister Laila Jaffal to his push for “accountability and the need for
the Tunisian judiciary to play its role during this stage.” Moreover, those
arrested will likely be interrogated in accordance with the anti-terrorism law.
“The matter differs between terrorist cases and ordinary cases, as the period of
precautionary detention is set by the anti-terrorism law at five days,” said
legal expert Abdulsattar al-Masoudi. He added that precautionary detention can
be renewed twice for a maximum period of 15 days. “Moreover, lawyers in
terrorist cases cannot attend investigations with their client, except after 48
hours from the start date of the arrest,” al-Masoudi added. Several
organizations and political parties expressed their fear of “disrespecting legal
procedures and covering up behind vague charges such as conspiracy against state
security to rid Saied of his political rivals.”The Tunisian Association of Women
Democrats (ATFD) condemned the arrests which it labeled as arbitrary. The ATFD
denounced arresting political activists who exercise their right to difference
in a peaceful framework. It likewise denounced the methods of arrest and
detention, which were characterized by terror and intimidation, flouting the
security of the houses and families of activists.
Vladimir Putin is about to win the ammunition
war against the West
Jack Watling/The Telegraph/February 14, 2023
‘The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than
our current rate of production,” Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general,
said this week. “This puts our defence industries under strain.” In two
sentences he confirmed a major hitch in the West’s efforts to support Kyiv, one
that experts have been highlighting since the first months of the war: we are
running out of supplies. In fact, Ukraine is not using excessive amounts of
artillery shells compared with historical conflicts. These shortages are instead
a stark demonstration of the hollowing-out of Nato since the end of the Cold
War. Now, lifting munitions production cannot be done with an on-off switch – it
will require several issues to be resolved concurrently. The manufacture of
artillery ammunition centres around five primary processes: the forging of shell
cases; the production of explosive energetics; charge manufacture; fuse
manufacture; and filling. The first process – forging the cases – is simple and
can be expanded through the repurposing of civilian forging capacity. But making
the payload to go in them is far less easy. Firstly, there is the need to secure
the relevant raw materials, which are in high demand on the international market
and therefore expensive. Secondly, as the product is a high explosive, the
factory must meet certain regulatory criteria. Thirdly, the product must have
very high-quality control and conform to specified requirements. The propellant
charges, for example, must release energy at a rate that conforms to the
tolerances of the system through which it will be fired and match the power upon
which the range tables for the system are based. If the UK were producing 155mm
rounds for its own artillery, this would be one problem, but Ukrainian forces
use 17 artillery types of both Nato and Soviet legacy design, not all of which
we have the technical specifications for. Moreover, filling and cooling shells
is a precise process. The high explosive must be heated, poured into the shell
casing and then cooled at a specified rate so that it does not contain
deformities, cavities or cracks. The facility for doing this must be protected
from climatic variations. This, again, brings significant regulatory
constraints. Then we have the less-than-favourable economics of the enterprise.
Shells are used in vast quantities during wartime and must be cheap. This means
the manufacturer makes a small margin of return on each shell. Therefore, in
peacetime, the incentive to produce is vastly reduced, since the state requires
a small number of shells. Yes, stockpiling is an option, but shells have a shelf
life of around 20 years so it can also be wasteful. Some might say the answer is
to have excess capacity. But this requires companies to keep factory facilities
idle for decades, which comes with considerable overheads. Western producers
cannot justify absorbing such a cost while facing cuts and being driven to
compete for international contracts. Thus, munitions factories have been shrunk
or closed. Russia also requires vast amounts of ammunition. However, Putin has
put his entire economy on a war footing. It is not subject to the same
commercial constraints as Nato’s defence industry, and Russian producers are not
constrained by concerns over industrial safety. Nato must strive to ramp up
production before Moscow resolves the inefficiencies, corruption and inertia of
its manufacturing base.
Dr Jack Watling is senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United
Services Institute. Every weekday the Telegraph's top journalists analyse the
invasion from all angles on our podcast 'Ukraine: The Latest'. With over 22
million downloads, it is your go-to source for live reaction and correspondents
reporting on the ground.
Top US general says Russia has already 'lost' the Ukraine
war and has paid an 'enormous price on the battlefield'
John Haltiwanger/Business Insider/February 14/2023
Gen. Mark Milley said Russia has "lost" in Ukraine as the war approaches the
one-year mark.
"They've lost strategically, operationally, and tactically," Milley said.
Russia has suffered massive casualties in Ukraine and failed in its initial war
aims.
As the war in Ukraine approaches the one-year mark, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen.
Mark Milley said Tuesday that Russia has "lost."Russian President Vladimir Putin
"thought he could defeat Ukraine quickly, fracture the NATO alliance, and act
with impunity. He was wrong," Milley said while speaking to reporters in
Brussels. The top US general ripped into Moscow for launching an unprovoked
invasion of Ukraine, emphasizing that Russia has paid an "enormous price on the
battlefield" as a consequence. "Russia is now a global pariah and the world
remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience. In short, Russia has lost
— they've lost strategically, operationally, and tactically," Milley added.
Milley's comments echoed an assessment from Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the United
Kingdom's chief of defense staff, who in December said "Russia is losing" and
the "free world is winning."
When Russia invaded Ukraine last February, it was widely expected to conquer
Kyiv in a matter of days. But Russian forces failed in that objective as
Ukrainian troops put up a far stiffer resistance than expected. With the help of
Western-supplied weapons, Ukraine has continued to defy expectations in this
war.
Over the course of 2022, the fighting largely shifted to Ukraine's east and the
conflict morphed into a brutal, grinding war of attrition. Putin illegally
annexed four Ukrainian regions in September, claiming them as part of Russia,
despite the fact that Russian forces did not fully occupy these regions. A
Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed Russian forces into retreat in parts of these
territories — including Kherson, the first major city Russia occupied after the
invasion. The war is raging on, and Russia, which mobilized hundreds of
thousands of additional troops, has seemingly begun a new offensive in the east
with the goal of swallowing the Donbas region — comprised of Donetsk and Luhansk,
two of the regions Putin illegally annexed. Russian gains have been limited
though. Both sides have experienced heavy losses since the invasion began.
Russian casualties estimated to be nearing 200,000.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that Putin is unfazed by the
high rate of casualties and is vying to overwhelm Ukrainian forces with sheer
numbers. Putin is "sending thousands and thousands of more troops, accepting a
very high rate of casualty, taking big losses, but putting pressure on the
Ukrainians," the NATO chief said on Monday, adding, "What Russia lacks in
quality, they try to compensate in quantity."
As Ukraine Demands Jets, NATO Pushes to Keep
Ammo Flowing
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 14 February, 2023
Ukraine's Western backers were set to focus on keeping ammunition flowing to the
war-torn nation at a meeting on Tuesday, as Kyiv presses for fighter jets to
push Russia back. President Volodymyr Zelensky has knuckled down on his plea for
Western aircraft after securing commitments for tanks, air defense and precision
missiles, AFP said. But allies insist they are scrambling to ensure his forces
have the ammunition they need on the ground to push back renewed Russian
offensives. "It is clear that we are in a race of logistics," NATO Secretary
General Jens Stoltenberg said ahead of the meeting of the US-led Ukraine Defense
Contact Group in Brussels. "Key capabilities like ammunition, fuel, and spare
parts must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the
battlefield. Speed will save lives."Ukraine's Western supporters -- spearheaded
by the United States -- have already supplied billions of dollars of arms to
help Kyiv hold back Moscow.
'More troops, more weapons'-
Now, just under a year into the war, Russian President Vladimir Putin is once
again stepping up his brutal assaults in the east of the country. "We see how
they are sending in more troops, more weapons, more capabilities to try to
pressure the Ukrainians," Stoltenberg said.
The fighting is consuming vast quantities of ammunition, straining stockpiles
and industries on both sides of the confrontation. Stoltenberg warned that
Kyiv's current rate of expenditure was "many times higher" than the output in
NATO countries. Allies continue to raid their shelves for the rounds --
especially 155-millimetre shells -- that Ukraine is firing by the thousands each
day. NATO is scrambling to get its factories to pump out more, and allies are
eyeing plans for joint weapons purchases, higher defense spending and
longer-term contracts. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has called on EU
states to acquire arms for Ukraine together, in the same way the bloc bought
Covid-19 vaccines in bulk.
'Make a difference'
Zelensky issued a powerful call during a trip to London, Paris and Brussels last
week for NATO members to send fighter planes and longer-range missiles. The
Ukrainian leader won a commitment to train pilots from Britain, but did not get
any firm promises that his forces will get Western planes. Slovakia has said it
is willing to discuss sending Soviet MIG-29 planes to help replace losses to
Ukraine's current stocks. Diplomats from several NATO allies said they did not
expect any firm announcement from Tuesday's meeting on supplying Western jets,
but that momentum was building. The United States -- by far the biggest supplier
of arms to Ukraine -- is seen as key as it could greenlight sending the widely
used F-16 fighters. Stoltenberg pointed out that over the year of war the
support from the West has already "evolved" from anti-tank weapons to advanced
Patriot air defense systems. "Regardless of what you think about aircraft, that
will take time," Stoltenberg said. He urged allies to make good on the promises
of fighting vehicles and tanks they have announced. "We need to now at least
ensure that we deliver what we can deliver in the short term, because that can
really make a difference on the battlefield in the coming weeks," he said.
Foreign Ministry: Golan will remain Arab and Syrian,
Israeli occupation will be defeated
NNA/February 14/2023
Damascus-SANA, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates affirmed that the
occupied Syrian Golan was and will remain a Syrian Arab land, and the Israeli
occupation will will be defeated, sooner or later. Commenting on the statement
of people in the Golan on the anniversary of the General strike, the Ministry
said on s Twitter : “41 years have passed since the open strike of our people in
the occupied Syrian Golan against the false annexation decision.”“Despite all
the circumstances, the Syrian citizens always affirm their adherence to their
identity, and their rejection of the Israeli occupation, the statement said,
stressing that the Golan will remain Arab and Syrian, and the Israeli occupation
will come to an end, sooner or later.” ----- SANA
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on February 14-15/2023
China's Balloon Reveals the Weaknesses in US
National Security Decision-Making
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/February 14, 2023
If China perceives that the America's leaders lack resolve or that its national
security decision-makers are divided, these failures can only tempt Chinese
aggression against Siberia or Taiwan. After watching America's debacles in
Afghanistan and a week of hosting the balloon, China must be asking: If not now,
when? These reconnaissance flights seem but one dimension of a vast,
multidimensional intelligence-collection effort by China.
The most important lesson China might have learned, unfortunately, is that
Washington's bungled balloon performance could well be replicated if Communist
China's President Xi Jinping invaded Taiwan or other targets.
The second-most damaging impact to US security regarding spy balloon that the
Chinese Communist Party floated over the entire US continent may have been the
assessment that China's decision-makers gleaned from the perceived clumsy and
indecisive manner in which America's political and military leaders responded to
the incident.
China, flaunting a lack of respect for the US, publicly ridiculed the balloon's
shoot-down and did not answer the phone when US Secretary of Defense Lloyd
Austin called. If China perceives that the America's leaders lack resolve or
that its national security decision-makers are divided, these failures can only
tempt Chinese aggression against Siberia or Taiwan. After watching America's
debacles in Afghanistan and a week of hosting the balloon, China must be asking:
If not now, when?
The saga of China's balloon, as well as other unidentified objects in the skies
over the US and Canada, only adds to the confused and feckless decision-making
process of America's political military leadership. Why, as reported, did the
Pentagon brass really not follow Biden's order to shoot down the balloon
immediately after the White House was notified?
The 200 foot tall Chinese surveillance craft , it turns out, was no trial
balloon flight; it was another of several fly-overs of US territory. Reportedly,
China has conducted surveillance balloon flights over Hawaii and Florida.
Washington has admitted that these balloons, belonging to China's People's
Liberation Army Air Force , have flown over about forty countries. The list
includes India, Japan and Taiwan. The US, of course, has military bases in many
countries.
President Biden ordered the balloon shot down only on Wednesday, February 1; the
military waited until Saturday to take it down. As criticism of the failure to
down it intensified, the public was informed that the hesitancy to shoot down
the balloon was out of safety concerns for people on the ground who might be hit
with debris. Now the White House is suggesting that allowing the balloon to
pursue its mission gave US intelligence agencies an opportunity to collect data
about the craft. If only.
The balloon passed over ballistic missile sites and a B-2 bomber base. The
balloon's information-gathering may -- or may not -- have been degraded by US
cover and concealment protocols to protect military installations when the
Pentagon is aware of adversarial intelligence collection efforts.
These reconnaissance flights seem but one dimension of a vast, multidimensional
intelligence-collection effort by China. Beijing does not seem even slightly
phased by the diplomatic fallout that has ensued from the incident. The Chinese
media first issued totally disingenuous statements, claiming that the balloon
was a civilian aircraft to collect meteorological data and had accidentally
strayed over US territory. One attempt at sardonic humor by official Chinese
media suggested that the balloon had cost only $50, while the US spent $1.47
million to shoot it down. Chinese state-controlled media then accurately
suggested that their balloon punctured the myth of NORAD's impervious defense
early-warning system. One Chinese news outlet claimed that America's F-22
tactical fighter jet had to use three of its missiles to hit the balloon,
succeeding only on the third attempt, and that the failures to hit the balloon
were kept from the American people by the Pentagon and a cooperative media.
The most important lesson China might have learned, unfortunately, is that
Washington's bungled balloon performance could well be replicated if Communist
China's President Xi Jinping invaded Taiwan or other targets.
*Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense
Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in
the Air Force Reserve.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Valentine's Day background: What’s its history and why is
it celebrated?
Yahoo/February 14, 2023
Valentine's Day hasn't always been the chocolate-saturated, glitter-encrusted
celebration we currently celebrate.
What's the history of Valentine's Day? Read on to find out.
Valentine's Day hasn't always been the chocolate-saturated, glitter-encrusted
celebration we currently celebrate. The origins of this holiday date back to
ancient times, and it has evolved over the centuries to become the holiday we
know today. From its early beginnings as a pagan festival to its modern
commercialization, the history of Valentine's Day is a fascinating story that
includes the myths, legends and customs that have shaped it over the years.
When did Valentine's Day begin?
Valentine's Day has its origins in ancient Rome. The Roman festival of
Lupercalia, which was held in mid-February, is believed to be the origin of the
holiday. Lupercalia was an ancient Roman festival that was celebrated on Feb.
15. It was believed to have been a fertility festival and was associated with
the Roman gods Lupercus and Faunus.
The festival was celebrated by the Luperci, a group of priests who would
sacrifice goats and dogs and then use the hides to whip women to promote
fertility. The festival also included a lottery in which young men and women
were paired up as partners for the duration of the festival, and many couples
would end up getting married as a result. The festival of Lupercalia was
eventually abolished in the 5th century AD, by Pope Gelasius I, as part of the
Christianization of Rome.
Christian roots of Valentine's Day
Valentine's Day as we know it today has its roots in the Christian tradition.
The holiday is named after Saint Valentine, a Catholic priest who lived in the
3rd century A.D.
St. Valentine is believed to have been born and raised in Terni, Italy, and
later served as a priest in Rome. There are several different legends and
stories associated with him, but the most common one is that he helped Christian
couples marry in secret during a time when Emperor Claudius II had banned
marriages to increase the number of soldiers in the Roman army. According to
this legend, St. Valentine would perform secret marriages for couples in love,
defying the emperor's ban.
Another story suggests that Valentine was imprisoned, tortured and ultimately
executed for his Christian beliefs. During his imprisonment, it is said that he
healed the jailer's daughter of her blindness, and before his execution, he left
her a note signed "from your Valentine," which is considered the first
Valentine's letter.
Valentine became associated with romantic love in the High Middle Ages when the
tradition of courtly love flourished. The day of his death, Feb. 14, was first
associated with romantic love in the 14th and 15th centuries when the notion of
courtly love was at its peak. This was the beginning of the celebration of
Valentine's Day as a day of romance and courtship. Poems and love letters were
exchanged, and the first Valentine's Day greeting card was believed to have been
sent in the 15th century.
Valentine's Day and the Industrial Revolution
Valentine's Day was not widely celebrated in the 18th century. It began to gain
popularity in the 19th century when it became more commercialized and began to
resemble the holiday we know today. Before that time, it was primarily a
religious observance associated with Saint Valentine, a martyr in the early
Christian church. People would exchange handwritten notes and small gifts, such
as flowers or sweets, with loved ones as a way to express affection. However, it
was not yet a widespread or commercial holiday.
In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, the Industrial Revolution led to an
increase in manufacturing capabilities and a rise in the middle class. This in
turn led to an increase in demand for gifts and products, and merchants began to
capitalize on this by creating and promoting Valentine's Day-themed products.
The holiday also gained popularity due to the influence of the greeting card
industry. In the early 19th century, the printing press made it possible to
mass-produce cards and other printed materials. As a result, there was a rise in
the number of Valentine's Day cards produced and sold.
Modern Valentine's Day
As the 20th century progressed, Valentine's Day became an even more
commercialized holiday. Retailers began to heavily promote the holiday,
encouraging consumers to go on special dates and buy gifts and products for
their loved ones. Today, Valentine's Day is a major holiday for retailers, with
consumers spending billions of dollars on gifts, flowers, chocolates and other
gifts. In recent years, there has been criticism that Valentine's Day is too
commercialized, with some arguing that it puts too much pressure on couples to
express their love through expensive gifts and that it can be exclusionary for
people who are single or who don't have romantic partners. However, other people
are using Valentine's Day to express their love and gratitude to family members
and others in the community. Whether you love it or hate it, the rich history of
Valentine's Day makes a fascinating story.
'The Global Getaway': More Empty Promises from the EU?
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/February 14, 2023
The Global Gateway project was launched in December 2021. Meanwhile, China's BRI
was launched in 2012 and has spread all over the globe, especially to Africa,
Latin America and Asia, where it has gained China vast influence. The Communist
Party newspaper China Daily recently claimed that in 2022 alone, China had
signed new contracts with BRI countries worth nearly $100 billion.
As of March 2022, the number of countries around the world that have joined the
BRI by signing a Memorandum of Understanding with China was 147, according to
the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University in Shanghai.
Forty-three of those countries were in sub-Saharan Africa and another 18
countries were in North Africa and the Middle East.
The US Center for Global Development has criticized the Global Gateway program
as a "mere packaging exercise of things that have already been programmed," and
saying that the €300 billion promised in new investments is not new at all.
The Global Gateway project is "a strategy to put together what was already going
to happen and present it as something new, and if our partners are tricked by
this then more fool them". — Barry Andrews, an Irish member of the European
Parliament, December 15, 2022.
"While China has roads, bridges and dams to show for its 20-year-engagement with
Africa... the EU brings red tape and a lecture." — African view of Global
Gateway, Euractiv, December 20, 2021.
Since 1991, China's foreign ministers have made it a tradition always to travel
to Africa on their first trip abroad in the New Year. This year, China's new
Foreign Minister Qin Gang visited Ethiopia, Gabon, Angola, Benin and Egypt in a
week-long tour.
"Who listens and understands the context in which African countries are
operating is going to be the better development partner... The EU is the one
that doesn't listen.... Was there consultation with African partners leading up
to the global gateway? Zero." — Ovigwe Eguegu, Nigerian policy adviser at
consultancy Development Reimagined, Euractiv, December 20, 2021.
"Beijing has long viewed African countries as occupying a central position in
its efforts to increase China's global influence and revise the international
order..." — US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2020 Report to
Congress.
It has been just over a year since the EU launched its Global Gateway
infrastructure project to compete with China's Belt and Road Initiative.
According to African criticism of the project, "While China has roads, bridges
and dams to show for its 20-year-engagement with Africa... the EU brings red
tape and a lecture." Pictured: Chinese President Xi Jinping welcome's Niger's
President Mahamadou Issoufou in Beijing on May 28, 2019. (Photo by Nicolas
Asfouri/AFP via Getty Images)
It has been just over a year since the European Union launched its Global
Gateway infrastructure project to compete with China's Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI).
The Global Gateway project was launched in December 2021. Meanwhile, China's BRI
was launched in 2012 and has spread all over the globe, especially to Africa,
Latin America and Asia, where it has gained China vast influence. The Communist
Party newspaper China Daily recently claimed that in 2022 alone, China had
signed new contracts with BRI countries worth nearly $100 billion.
Promising to dedicate up to €300 billion between 2021 and 2027 to invest in the
digital, energy and transport sectors in developing countries and to strengthen
health, education and research systems across the world, the EU and its member
states have vowed to become a sustainable alternative to China's BRI. It is
questionable, however, whether such an ambition is even feasible at this late
stage.
As of March 2022, the number of countries around the world that have joined the
BRI by signing a Memorandum of Understanding with China was 147, according to
the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University in Shanghai.
Forty-three of those countries were in sub-Saharan Africa and another 18
countries were in North Africa and the Middle East.
"The European model is about investing in both hard and soft infrastructure, in
sustainable investments in digital, climate and energy, transport, health,
education and research, as well as in an enabling environment guaranteeing a
level playing field. We will support smart investments in quality
infrastructure, respecting the highest social and environmental standards, in
line with the EU's democratic values and international norms and standards. The
Global Gateway Strategy is a template for how Europe can build more resilient
connections with the world," President of the European Commission Ursula von der
Leyen said at the time of the EU project's launch.
"Global Gateway is a values-based offer. Our investments reflect European social
and environmental standards," Jutta Urpilainen, European Commissioner for
International Partnerships, recently told Foreign Policy. "Of course, it is also
a geopolitical project. Infrastructure is at the core of geopolitics today."
The US Center for Global Development has criticized the Global Gateway program
as a "mere packaging exercise of things that have already been programmed," and
saying that the €300 billion promised in new investments is not new at all.
"The €300 billion is mainly made up of a mixture of existing commitments from
European development finance institutions... The Global Gateway also makes
highly questionable assumptions about leveraging private investment, rather than
actual spending or any new commitments... the EU's Global Gateway appears more
of a branding exercise rather than a groundbreaking plan for domination in
global infrastructure. How the EU intends to finance the plan is poorly
explained, and it is hard to get a sense of actual scale, especially as it
largely relies on European development and financial institutions to bankroll a
large portion of the money. With a global remit and an expansive scope, turning
the pipedream into reality will be no easy feat."
According to the US Council on Foreign Relations:
"Global Gateway raises just as many questions as it answers. So far, there is no
indication that Global Gateway will have a dedicated budget or staff, making it
possible that this will simply be a rebranding of existing and proposed
infrastructure investments. In order to offer a meaningful alternative to BRI,
Global Gateway will need to both harmonize the efforts of export credit and
development agencies within the EU and also get access to additional funds for
investments... It is also unclear to what extent—if any—Global Gateway will work
in tandem with the Group of Seven's (G7) response to BRI, 'Build Back Better
World' (B3W)... Unless B3W and Global Gateway coordinate their approaches,
neither will meet its full potential."
According to Barry Andrews, an Irish Member of the European Parliament, the
Global Gateway project is "a strategy to put together what was already going to
happen and present it as something new, and if our partners are tricked by this
then more fool them". He has also said that the project lacks "transparency and
clarity."
Half of the proposed Global Gateway funds -- €150 billion -- have been earmarked
for Africa in what has become known as the EU-Africa Global Gateway Investment
Package. African experts, however, already criticized the initiative at its
launch a year ago.
According to Euractiv, African criticism of the project points out that, "While
China has roads, bridges and dams to show for its 20-year-engagement with
Africa... the EU brings red tape and a lecture."
China has been visibly active on the African continent for several decades. It
has held high-level ministerial conferences with 53 African countries every
three years since 2006 -- the last one taking place in 2021 -- within the
framework of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, established in 2000. Three
of those summits were higher-level China-Africa leaders' summits, the last in
2018. In addition, since 1991, China's foreign ministers have made it a
tradition always to travel to Africa on their first trip abroad in the New Year.
This year, China's new Foreign Minister Qin Gang visited Ethiopia, Gabon,
Angola, Benin and Egypt in a week-long tour.
"Who listens and understands the context in which African countries are
operating is going to be the better development partner," Ovigwe Eguegu, a
Nigerian policy adviser at consultancy Development Reimagined, said.
"The EU is the one that doesn't listen. The EU now realizes that Africa is
serious about wanting to build infrastructure. In a way, the EU coming up with
the global gateway is acknowledging that China got development in Africa
right... Was there consultation with African partners leading up to the global
gateway? Zero. You can't expect any enthusiasm because there is just ignorance
of what these promises will mean and how they will translate on the ground...
Nigeria is not going to sit back and let the EU dictate whether it's going to
expand its hydrocarbon investments, but it will seek deals with other partners
including China, Turkey or an increasingly engaged UAE."
"China's financing is through loans but at least it's on the table," said Faten
Aggad, a former Algerian advisor to the African Union's high representative on
Africa-EU negotiations, adding that she thought the EU Gateway was disappointing
and lacking a firm commitment to new and additional funding. "As things are,
China will certainly remain a much more attractive partner. The EU will need to
up its offer if it's to be truly relevant."
According to the European Union, the first projects under the Global Gateway
Africa-Europe Investment Package "were launched in March 2022 with Ghana, Ivory
Coast and Niger."
"There has also been progress on infrastructure investment, efforts to increase
African autonomy in the production of medicines and vaccines (over €1 billion
invested in Rwanda, Senegal, Ghana and South Africa) and supporting regional
value chains. In the education sector, the EU is investing in 25 capacity
building projects in vocational education and training, involving 26 African
countries."
The above is unlikely to make even the smallest dent in China's dominant
position on the African continent. Perhaps because, unlike Europe and the US,
China has made Africa a focal point in its foreign policy.
"Beijing has long viewed African countries as occupying a central position in
its efforts to increase China's global influence and revise the international
order," as the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission wrote in its
2020 Report to Congress.
"Beijing uses its influence in Africa to gain preferential access to Africa's
natural resources, open up markets for Chinese exports, and enlist African
support for Chinese diplomatic priorities on and beyond the continent."
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished
Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Israel’s Power Shift: To Bibi, or Not to Bibi
David Pollock/The Washington Institute/January 12, 2023
Once Netanyahu finds a way out of his legal troubles, he stands a realistic
chance of balancing the demands of his most militant coalition partners with the
expectations of the wider Israeli, Arab, and international community.
Political power in Israel has clearly shifted sharply rightward since the
November 1 election, but expert views still differ intensely about who is really
in charge today. How much will Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, back in power as
Israel’s prime minister, prove either willing or able to restrain the most
hardliner religious nationalist members of his coalition? That is the question
this note attempts to answer.
Early indications are mixed, depending upon the issue, the timing, and the
influence of other internal and external factors. Netanyahu himself is saying
little in public, beyond vague assurances that he intends to preserve Israeli
democracy, individual religious liberties and LGBT rights, and ties to the
country’s American and Arab partners and to world Jewry. And indeed, on balance,
Bibi the master political manipulator and relative pragmatist seems likely to
prevail on most fronts yet again. That is because he will soon face pressures,
incentives, and opportunities to divide and conquer the extremists in his own
government.
Right now, however, Netanyahu is in a relatively weak position, since his top
priority is to acquire some kind of legislative “get out of jail free card” on
his corruption charges. That gives his junior coalition partners, whose
parliamentary votes provide half his government’s 64-seat majority in the
120-member Knesset, great short-term leverage over the prime minister. They are
using it to move quickly on a wide range of legal and bureaucratic fronts,
against both Israeli liberals and Palestinians.
But whenever the corruption indictment hurdle is passed, Netanyahu’s margin for
maneuver will widen. There is no fixed deadline for this parliamentary gambit,
but most observers reckon the likely timeline in the range of a few more months
at most. And it is even barely possible that some opposition legislators will
heed the calls from various centrist Israeli pundits to oblige Netanyahu on that
personal issue sooner rather than later, precisely in order to lighten his
dependence on his far-right allies.
At that point, the hardline coalition agreement will become, like so many
political platforms and campaign promises worldwide, little more than words on
paper. Other, countervailing factors will offset some of those words. Those
factors, already gathering strength behind the scenes, include both Israeli
domestic and foreign policy calculations.
On the domestic front, the most talked-about yet actually the weakest such
pushback, from Netanyahu’s probable perspective, is mass popular protest. Media
hype notwithstanding, the largest demonstration against the new far-right agenda
attracted barely 20,000 souls, in a country of nearly 10 million citizens. And
the most recent credible poll shows that the majority of those citizens—58
percent—are in fact little concerned about the sweeping judicial “reforms” just
proposed by Justice Minister Yariv Levin, which would make the parliament
effectively supreme over Israel’s generally liberal Supreme Court. For most
Israelis, those outside the realm of politics or media, life simply goes on much
as before. There will be more protest demonstrations in the coming days, but the
country’s tested social resilience can survive even these turbulent times, and
there will be no revolution against Netanyahu.
More important will be the resistance of Israel’s powerful security
professionals to other proposed rightwing initiatives. For example, the military
chief of staff, Gen. Aviv Kochavi, has reportedly told Netanyahu that if the
Border Patrol comes under cabinet firebrand Itamar Ben Gvir’s control, that
crucial unit should be moved out of the West Bank altogether. The commander of
Israel’s national police has warned publicly against further provocations, by
Ben Gvir or others, at the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. And out of the public eye,
the security apparatus seems determined to avoid another armed conflict with
Hamas in Gaza. Thus, we witness this paradoxical spectacle: Israel’s new
government is adopting additional financial, travel, and other penalties against
the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and East Jerusalem—while avoiding any
such new measures against Hamas, still sworn to Israel’s destruction, in Gaza.
Also on the domestic front, and even less well understood abroad, are the
internal divisions within the hardline right camp. A particularly striking case
in point was the public statement by Moshe Gafni—a leader of the ultraorthodox
Degel Hatorah faction of the United Torah Judaism camp in Netanyahu’s
coalition—that Ben Gvir’s latest visit to the Temple Mount was both a violation
of Jewish law and a “needless, useless provocation.” On the other hand, Gafni
and his party are bitterly opposed to gay rights—while Netanyahu’s own Likud
party just successfully nominated Israel’s first openly gay Speaker of
Parliament, Amir Ohana. And some in the traditional national religious milieu
resent the ultraorthodox for avoiding military service and contributing but
little to Israel’s economy. Netanyahu can exploit all these divisions, and more,
to refuse some demands by one group in his camp on the grounds that they would
alienate a different group.
Looking further afield, two foreign actors—Americans and Arabs—will also urge
caution on Netanyahu, probably to good effect. The U.S. government has all but
stated that it will not attempt to intervene directly on purely internal Israeli
issues, beyond mild rhetorical gestures. But Washington has also already urged
more strongly—in the words of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to his new Israeli
counterpart Yoav Gallant—that Israel avoid anything that would “undermine
security and stability on the West Bank.”
Here the motives, means, and limits of American influence on Netanyahu must be
clarified. The U.S., long before Netanyahu’s revival, has in practice abandoned
pursuit of a “two-state solution” as an operational goal except in a very
distant aspirational sense. Nor is this a matter of conditioning American
economic aid to Israel on that or any other issue—if only because Israel’s
strong economy no longer needs American financial support. Rather, the key
leverage at stake is U.S. coordination with Israel against Iran, which could be
undermined by upheaval in East Jerusalem, Gaza, or the West Bank.
Netanyahu is all too well aware of this trade-off, and he is clearly stating
that Iran remains his foremost foreign policy priority. He can therefore be
expected to adjust his Palestinian policy accordingly, at least up to a point,
even as the two-state solution slips ever further behind Israeli settlements
into the hazy future. That endless grey zone is shifting rightward, but it is
highly likely to remain grey. Outright annexation of the West Bank, whatever
Netanyahu’s coalition agreement says, is almost certainly off the table.
Much the same holds true, finally, of the Arab dimension of Netanyahu’s emerging
policy. He is determined to preserve and, if possible, expand his legacy Abraham
Accords. And his actual and potential Arab partners have already made haste to
condemn Ben Gvir’s visit to the Temple Mount—while still hosting a high-level
Negev Forum meeting with Israel, Morocco, Egypt, the UAE, and the U.S. in Abu
Dhabi this very week. From Arab, Israeli, and American policy perspectives, this
too is not all-or-nothing; a balance will be sought between bilateral
normalization and progress (or at least stability) on the Palestinian front.
On the Arab street, that balance is well captured in polls supervised by the
author just after Netanyahu’s latest re-election. In the UAE, nearly half of
citizens say that “people who want to have business or sports contacts with
Israelis should be allowed to do so”—even though just a quarter think the
Abraham Accords have already had a positive effect on the region as a whole.
Remarkably, those percentages are almost identical in Saudi Arabia, which has
yet to join those accords. And even more remarkably, the proportion in both
countries who accept contacts with Israelis is quadruple the figure in Egypt,
which has officially been at peace with Israel for over 40 years.
Altogether, then, Netanyahu will need to juggle the prospect of the decent
relations he needs with Arabs, Americans, and his own Israeli public, against
the demands of the most militant elements of his governing coalition. He will
temporize, then compromise, and so probably remain in power. Ironically, he is
for now the most realistic hope of containing the clear rightward drift of
Israeli public policy, both at home and abroad. The next question is whether or
not he will take on that unprecedented challenge quickly, before the end of
March, when the coincidence of Ramadan and Passover once again threatens to
ignite major tensions on the Temple Mount and beyond.
*David Pollock is the Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute and director
of Fikra Forum. This article was originally published on the Newslooks website.
Iran Unveils New Underground Air Base
Farzin Nadimi/The Washington Institute/Februar 14/ 2023
The facility is seemingly intended for launching surprise maritime interdiction
missions in the Persian Gulf region, mainly aimed at U.S. Fifth Fleet
assets—though it probably won’t be able to accommodate Iran’s potential future
fleet of Russian jets.
On February 7—the official anniversary of the day when air officers joined the
1979 Islamic Revolution—Iran unveiled the Oghab-44 Hybrid Tactical Air Base,
located 120 km northwest of Bandar Abbas in a remote area of Hormozgan province.
Despite being built well inland, the unfinished facility essentially overlooks
strategic shipping routes in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic
Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) calls the base “hybrid” because it is
intended to accommodate both manned and unmanned aerial assets; the question is
which assets, and what threat they might pose to U.S. and allied targets.
Iran’s “Eagle Nest”
The new base’s name references both the Farsi word for “eagle” and the
forty-fourth anniversary of the revolution. Iran often announces aviation
achievements on this anniversary, but Oghab’s unveiling was deemed special
because—in the words of Gholam Reza Jalali, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Corps (IRGC) general who heads the Passive Defense Organization—it could be a
“game changer” in a time of war and will force the “enemy” to reconsider its
military calculations. The fanfare was also presumably aimed at countering the
recent Juniper Oak military exercise, the largest set of drills ever conducted
in tandem by the Israel Defense Forces and a U.S. joint regional command.
For his part, armed forces chief of staff Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri stated that
underground air bases like Oghab would expand Iran’s deterrent power beyond its
known missile and proxy capabilities by putting airpower back on the table.
Without a survivable basing system, Iran has had little hope that its air force
could remain viable in a war with a major military power. Moreover, the IRIAF
has been noticeably underfunded compared to the IRGC and even other branches of
the regular armed forces (Artesh). According to Bagheri, the new hardened base
and future sister facilities will shore up those weaknesses by accommodating new
fighter jets and protecting them from enemy bombs and missiles in the event of a
conflict. Yet can Oghab live up to that claim?
The apparently large underground complex is dug into an Asmari limestone rock
formation, with four north-facing entrances connected to an uncovered 3 km
surface runway whose construction began in May 2021 (though the complex as a
whole appears to be significantly older; see below). Aircraft will be able to
reach the runway via two partly covered taxiways stretching 1.4 and 1.8 km. The
connecting taxiway tunnels would also seem to work as alert areas.
The choice of location was partly predicated on the notion that its unique
topography would make the base less vulnerable to air and missile attacks, with
mountain ridges providing protection on the north and south. Yet these obstacles
will hardly be formidable enough to affect the highly accurate hypersonic
gliding munitions that Iran’s adversaries will be fielding in the near future
(assuming they cannot penetrate the base with existing conventional weapons).
Similarly, the heavy blast doors intended to protect the facility’s entrances do
not appear to be as highly rated against tactical nuclear blasts as similar
facilities elsewhere in the world. And despite being housed in hardened bunkers,
aircraft would still need to take off and land via the more exposed taxiways and
runway, which remain vulnerable to high-kinetic heavy ordnance. The underground
tunnel network may present problems as well—although it appears capable of
accommodating several aircraft with their support equipment, fuel storage, and
maintenance/arming spaces, it also seems to lack proper ventilation and
firefighting pipes, so sustained operations there could prove highly dangerous.
In any case, construction appears to be incomplete at present. Work is still
being carried out under the supervision of the Khatam al-Anbia Central
Headquarters, whose main job is to oversee Artesh and IRGC operational
preparedness. Similar underground air bases in Taiwan, the former Yugoslavia,
and Sweden took about eight years to finish at a cost of at least $1 billion
each. In Oghab’s case, Sentinel 2 satellite imagery shows significant
excavations in the area for the past several years.
Implications for Iran’s Fighter Fleet
Along with Bagheri’s recent comments, the inauguration of Oghab-44 and other
hardened air bases suggests that Iran might resume its push for more modern
airpower. For example, recent reports indicate that it might take delivery of
twenty-four Russian Su-35S multirole fighters in return for supplying suicide
drones and other weapons to Moscow. The batch of fighters in question was
originally produced for Egypt but remains undelivered, mainly due to U.S.
political pressure and Cairo’s dissatisfaction with the aircraft.
Yet even if a deal with Iran is in the works, delivery does not appear
imminent—there is little indication of the normal preparations that would
precede implementation of such a major military transaction (e.g., air and
ground crew training in either country). Perhaps Moscow intended the news to
serve as a warning to Western governments—namely, if they send F-16s or other
modern fighter jets to Ukraine, Russia will give Su-35s to Tehran.
Basing Su-35s at Oghab-44 seems improbable as well. The facility’s tunnels were
apparently designed to allow movement of F-4 Phantoms, F-14 Tomcats, and Su-24
Fencers, whose wingspans range from 10.3 to 11.8 meters; the larger Su-35, with
a wingspan of 15.3 meters, is unlikely to fit.
Yet despite rushing to exploit the Ukraine war by cementing a strategic
partnership with Russia and potentially acquiring new fighter jets and other
advanced weapons, the IRIAF’s mainstay is still the fleet of F-4 Phantoms that
were purchased from the United States before the revolution. An F-4E can carry a
full combat load of 2,700 kg to a range of 840 km, or two antiship or cruise
missiles to as far as 1,000 km before firing them. In the latter case, Iran’s
Nasr antiship missile can achieve a range of 70 km; the Phantom can also carry
other antiship missiles with ranges as long as 300 km, or larger cruise missiles
such as the Asef and Heidar, which can travel significantly farther at low
altitudes before reaching their targets (their air-launched ranges are in excess
of 1,000 km and 200 km, respectively).
These capabilities may help explain why Iran would want to spend so much effort
and money on an underground air base at a time when it has a very limited number
of operational combat aircraft, and when the modern Russian jets it hopes to
purchase are seemingly too large to operate there. Armed with long-range
antiship missiles and standoff smart munitions, aircraft taking off from
Oghab-44 could provide some measure of surprise first-strike capability, as well
as a second-strike capability to retaliate against U.S. capital warships
(especially aircraft carriers), amphibious groups, auxiliary ships, and regional
bases. Because the complex has been under construction for several years, it was
likely intended with one major purpose in mind: launching surprise attacks
against U.S. warships throughout the Gulf region, especially carrier strike
groups. The USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group completed the last such
deployment in the region in September 2021; previously, carrier groups were
often stationed in the Fifth Fleet’s theater of operations within striking range
of Iran when tensions with the regime rose.
Conclusion
Some aspects of Oghab-44 might lead observers to believe it was intended for an
air defense role (e.g., its connecting tunnels could double as alert areas,
which would be unnecessary for preplanned strike missions). Yet this role has
already been prominently assigned to Iran’s expanding ground-based air defense
network with very few fighter jets involved. More likely, then, Oghab is
designed to serve as a secure forward operating base that supports maritime
interdiction operations as part of Iran’s antiaccess/area-denial strategy,
mainly using its small F-4 and Su-24 strike aircraft detachments from Bandar
Abbas and Shiraz air bases at first, as well as unmanned platforms in the
future. If Iran does eventually receive Su-35 jets from Russia, the base
probably cannot accommodate them (perhaps it was designed before Tehran
envisioned purchasing larger jets such as the Su-35).
Yet even without more modern aircraft or a larger fleet, Iran’s expensive new
underground air bases could give it some degree of aerial first-strike
capability against U.S. naval assets in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and
Arabian Sea, perhaps including efforts to close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping
and naval traffic. Building such bases could also spur other countries in the
region to add hardened underground facilities to their existing air bases or
construct new bases with this capability.
*Farzin Nadimi is an associate fellow with The Washington Institute,
specializing in security and defense in Iran and the Gulf region.
The Earthquake and the Syrian Reality
Uncovered
Fayez Sara/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 14 February, 2023
The Syrian earthquake appeared in its few days and limited geography as an
amplification of what has afflicted the people of Syria and their country over
the past twelve years.
In less than one week, more Syrians were killed, wounded, and displaced, and
their property destroyed, than in any other week in the past years. Indeed, the
overall outcome - the clear picture of which will be defined with the completion
of the rubble removal operations and the end of the search for the missing -
could see the number of Syrian losses from the earthquake double.
However, human pain and suffering, and the colossal material losses, are some of
the results, to which is added the political outcome of the earthquake, and the
impact it has on the Syrians and their cause at different levels, especially on
the positions and policies of the Syrian parties over what happened.
Needless to say, scrutinizing the positions and policies of the Syrians begins
with the stance and approach of the Assad regime. The latter has not diverged
from its usual tendency to politically employ any event and development, and
place it at the service of its policies before anything else. The regime has
always confirmed that it is not interested in the deterioration of the situation
of the Syrians, especially in areas outside its control.
Therefore, the regime sought to make international aid pass through it, which
opens the doors to normalizing its ties with countries and organizations, some
of which still refuse any such relations. This will also allow it to dispose of
the aid in its own way and distribute it to its entourage, at the expense of the
rest of the Syrians with urgent needs.
Social media in the regime-controlled areas referred to many crimes committed by
regime supporters in stealing aid and selling it openly in cities under its
influence.
Unsurprisingly, the regime dealt with the struggles facing the Syrians with the
least amount of responsibility for the earthquake and its repercussions, even in
the areas under its control. It did not announce national mourning, nor did it
declare any region as a disaster area, nor did it invite the government and its
agencies to initiate the adequate response.
Moreover, the visit that the head of the regime made to Aleppo seemed like a
picnic, during which Assad, his wife and his bodyguards did not stop laughing,
as if they were celebrating, or rejoicing that the devastating earthquake came
to replace the barrel bombs and missiles, which the regime used for years for
the killing of Syrians and the indiscriminate destruction of property.
The earthquake and its repercussions confirmed the regime’s policies and its
well-known stances towards the Syrians. It showed the whole world that the
regime has not and will not change in all circumstances. This also applies to
its main supporters, the Iranians and the Russians, who have renewed their
positions on the file of the crossings – a topic that will be soon discussed on
the table of the UN Security Council.
When exposing the Syrian reality, we take a look at the other side, which
includes the Syrian political and armed opposition forces, and the de-facto
forces, foremost of which is Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and its base, Al-Nusra Front,
the branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria, and the Syrian Democratic Forces.
The opposition organizations remained silent. Those are led by the National
Coalition, which is described as the “representative of the Syrian people.” Its
main response was a visit to the earthquake-affected areas, which came days
after Assad’s visit to Aleppo.
The position of the armed groups in the north was not better than those of the
Coalition. They chose silence, and refrained from participating in rescuing the
victims and providing them with aid in the face of difficult weather conditions.
What’s more, the Syrian Interim Government, which is affiliated with the
Coalition, prevented the entry of relief aid coming from east of the Euphrates.
A distinctive position was seen by the political-military formations in the
areas outside the control of the Assad regime. It was the response of the Syrian
Democratic Forces in the east of the Euphrates, led by the Kurdish Democratic
Union party (PYd), which dealt with the earthquake within its areas of control,
and sent aid to west of the Euphrates, in a step involving political objectives.
Another position, this time by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, whose leader, al-Julani,
appeared to console the victims of the earthquake. Its platforms circulated
pictures showing its members participating in rescue efforts, attempting somehow
to improve the image of the organization and the affiliated Salvation Government
in the eyes of the Syrians.
Amid a black scene that included the Assad regime, the political and military
opposition groups, and the de-facto forces in the east of the Euphrates and in
Idlib, we saw the striking absence of political and moral responsibility, the
perpetual negligence and misbehavior, and above all the intended corruption in
dealing with the earthquake and its repercussions, especially with all sides’
failure to provide relief to the population through the use of the available
capabilities.
Those areas encompass hundreds of thousands of military and security forces,
militants, and tens of thousands of vehicles that could have made a difference
in the response and its results.
Some misunderstood the role of international sanctions, while others used them
as a pretext for the delay in providing aid. Türkiye, for its part, intercepted
the aid path to the northwest in an incomprehensible move, as the country had
the main control over the crossings.
However, amid the intense darkness surrounding the Syrian catastrophe, two rays
of light appeared.
The first was represented by the White Helmets, a civil organization with about
3,000 volunteers. They worked with limited capacities and capabilities in the
past years on rescue missions, in the face of the attacks of the regime and its
allies on northwestern Syria. They achieved great successes, which qualified
them to assume a role, albeit a limited one, with other small organizations that
are not specialized in earthquake response, saving what can be saved.
The second ray of light was seen in the broad Syrian initiatives, which included
the places where Syrians are scattered, both inside and outside Syria. Extensive
solidarity campaigns were organized, in addition to financial and in-kind
donations aimed at covering as much as possible of the needs of Syrians in both
Türkiye and Syria.
The most important thing in the campaigns is that they focused on two types of
discourse: a unifying rhetoric for the Syrians on the one hand, and a call on
countries, organizations, and public opinion to expedite the provision of aid,
to overcome the consequences of the earthquake.
The first part of revelations was negative and emphasized the deteriorating
reality of the regime, the political and military groups, and the de facto
authorities. The second part, however, confirmed the good aspects of the
Syrians’ response, through their civil and relief groups. It also shed light on
the positive spirit of solidarity among the Syrians, wherever they were.
In both cases, the matter is presented to the Syrian elite, especially the youth
among them, who are required to build on the facts for the sake of the
long-awaited change, by forming and modernizing new and independent political
forces that respond to the interests and needs of the Syrians, and help them
achieve peace, and a system that provides freedom, justice, and equality for all
the population.
Iran obstructs normalization between Turkiye
and Syria
Ghassan Ibrahim/Arab News/February 14, 2023
The normalization of Turkish-Syrian relations under Russian auspices proceeded
smoothly until Iran’s prompt intervention interrupted the process.
Turkiye expressed its willingness for full normalization with the Syrian regime
due to internal reasons related to the Turkish economy to open border crossings
with Syria and export Turkish goods to Arab countries.
Russia responded to the Turkish initiative by sponsoring it and putting pressure
on the Assad government to unconditionally agree to direct talks with the
Turkish side. The initiative went from security meetings with the Syrian side to
meetings at the level of defense ministers of both countries. Russia hosted the
meeting and pushed its development to the political level through talks between
the foreign ministers of both countries in Moscow. At that point, Iran
intensified its political activities/interactions with the Syrian regime in
order to curb the Turkish-Russian impulse for fear of losing some of its
influence.
Russian-Turkish meetings regarding Syria have always involved Iran, but
normalization meetings have entirely ruled that out. As a result, Tehran began
to feel that the Syrian issue was no longer being managed trilaterally/with
tripartite presence, as was the case at the meetings in Sochi and Astana.
Tehran fears restoring Turkish-Syrian relations will come at the expense of its
share of influence, in addition to trade benefits, reconstruction contracts,
public sector investment, and the profits from the extraction of natural
resources such as oil, gas, minerals and phosphates.
Although Iran publicly welcomes Turkiye’s opening up to Damascus, its stance
differs from what it has announced. Tehran sent Foreign Minister Hossein
Amir-Abdollahian to Damascus to ask the Syrian regime to raise the ceiling on
demands in exchange for normalizing relations with Turkiye.
After these visits, Assad and his government declared that there could be no
full normalization of relations with Turkiye without a complete withdrawal from
Syrian lands. This position contradicts the agreement between Turkiye and Russia
that normalization will happen without further conditions.
Iran’s position in Syria is full of contradictions. Iran wants the regime’s
return as a legitimate government that has relations with all the countries of
the world, but at the moment fears the current imbalance of power between
Turkiye, Russia and its influence in Syria. During bilateral Turkish-Syrian
talks, Iran pressured its militias to move toward northern Syria near
Ankara-controlled areas as an indirect signal that there would be no
normalization without Tehran’s approval.
Turkiye prefers Russia as the main mediator in talks with Syria because Moscow
is more flexible than Tehran in accelerating normalization over time. Moreover,
Russia is ready to put pressure on the regime’s government to react logically,
as Moscow and Ankara cooperate not only in Syria but also in Ukraine. The two
countries have well-established political and military coordination, which
ensures that the normalization process between Ankara and Damascus is proceeding
according to the wishes of the Turkish leadership.
Tehran fears restoring Turkish-Syrian relations will come at the expense of its
share of influence.
Moscow also agrees with Turkiye in excluding Iran from the normalization
process, and that indicates Iran’s rivalry with Russia and Turkiye and the
divergence of interests.
Turkiye wants Tehran to refrain from entering talks directly and prefers Iran
not to participate in details of normalization steps with Syria. There is a
conviction among the Turkish leadership that Iran’s involvement in this matter
will be both complex and slow, which may worry other countries in the region.
However, Turkiye cannot wholly and crudely exclude Iran. Turkiye’s presidential
spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, said that his country “welcomes Iran’s accession to
the talks it is having with Syria, with Russian mediation.” These statements
were made ostensibly to welcome Iran’s participation. What Kalin tried to
achieve, however, was nothing more than an attempt to contain Iranian anger. His
statements were merely a diplomatic message, not a genuine desire for Iran to
sit at the same table during the meetings.
Subsequently, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced an upcoming meeting at the
level of military delegations of Russia, Turkiye and the Syrian regime later
this month. The statements of the Russian Foreign Ministry did not refer to the
participation of the Iranian delegation in the meeting.
There appears to be a coordinated agreement between Turkiye and Russia to
exclude Tehran from negotiations for fear of deviating from the talks and the
goal agreed on between Moscow and Ankara.
Turkiye and Russia realized that all the roles played by Iran in Syria went
against the common trend and obstructed a comprehensive political solution to
the war in Syria.
Iran may continue to impede the Syrian-Turkish reconciliation, but it cannot
stop it. Tehran realizes that the room for maneuver is limited when it comes to
questioning the decisions of the Russian president and his agreements with his
Turkish counterpart.
Convincing Turkiye and Russia of the need to distance Iran from normalization is
a step no less critical than normalization itself and marks the end of
tripartite coordination.
• Ghassan Ibrahim is a British-Syrian journalist and researcher on issues
regarding the Middle East, most notably Turkiye, Syria and Iran. He can be
reached at www.ghassanibrahim.com.
World now has an alternative to the nuclear deal: ‘the
people of Iran,’ former US National Security Adviser John Bolton tells Arab News
Ephrem Kossaify/Arab News/February 14/2023
https://arab.news/jxx5g
Says threats against US officials and overseas dissidents reveal “terrorist
nature of the regime”
Argues that the 2015 nuclear deal with the West itself allowed Iran “a path to
nuclear weapons”
NEW YORK CITY: Ever since an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operative tried
to murder John Bolton in August 2022, the former US national security adviser
and former ambassador to the UN has been under the protection of the Secret
Service.
“It’s a different kind of life than walking around totally freely,” Bolton told
Arab News in a wide-ranging exclusive interview. “But considering the
alternative, I’m very grateful for the Secret Service protection.”
Known for his hawkish views on the Iranian regime and reputed to be a driving
force behind former US President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy, the
assassination plot has, if anything, only intensified Bolton’s views.
“It’s one more small reason to want to see the regime replaced in Iran with a
government that really reflects the will of the Iranian people,” he added.
Last summer, the US Department of Justice charged Iranian military operative
Shahram Poursafi with plotting to assassinate Bolton, likely in retaliation for
the Trump administration’s January 2020 drone strike that killed Qassem
Soleimani, according to court documents.
Soleimani was the commander of the IRGC’s extraterritorial Quds Force — an elite
unit tasked with exporting the Islamic revolution throughout the Middle East and
beyond, using violence and subterfuge to further the regime’s objectives.
Around the same time of Poursafi’s arrest, novelist Salman Rushdie was stabbed
multiple times as he was about to give a public lecture in New York City. The
attack, if not directly linked to Iran, was at least incited by the regime’s
1989 fatwa against the writer.
Then, in late January this year, the Department of Justice charged three men for
an alleged plot that originated from Iran to kill Iranian American journalist
and human rights activist Masih Alinejad, who has been a vocal critic of the
regime’s abuses.
Speaking to Arab News, Bolton described Iran’s threats against US officials and
the regime’s overseas opponents as “unprecedented in recent times.
“(Those threats) demonstrate really the fundamentally terrorist nature of the
regime itself, (and) why they can’t be trusted, whether it’s on the nuclear deal
or anything else, to actually do what they commit to.”
This “fundamental character” of the Iranian regime is also evident “every day in
the repression of the Iranian people and in the terrorist groups it backs in its
region.”
Bolton believes there is too little awareness or acknowledgment of the regime’s
campaign of targeted assassinations, which has become more audacious since the
onset of nationwide anti-government protests in September.
“It really hasn’t sunk in that the government of Iran is systematically trying
to eliminate vocal opposition to its policies,” he said.
Western leaders have hardened their rhetoric against Iran in recent months since
the regime launched a harsh crackdown on anti-government protests.
Iranians have been taking to the streets since last September when 22-year-old
Mahsa Amini died in the custody of Iran’s notorious morality police, sparking a
wider movement against the theocracy’s treatment of women and the overall
decline in living standards.
The US and several European governments have also criticized Tehran for
supplying combat drones to the Russian military, which are reportedly being used
against civilian facilities in Ukraine.
Reflecting a deterioration in the West’s already dire relations with Tehran in
recent months, the US, UK and EU have imposed new sanctions on dozens of Iranian
officials and organizations, including units of the IRGC.
Those sanctioned can no longer travel to the EU, while any assets they hold
inside the EU can be frozen. Meanwhile, talks are ongoing in the European
Parliament to determine whether or not to proscribe the IRGC as a terrorist
organization.
Despite this, the Biden administration and its European allies are still trying
to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan
of Action (JCPOA), with a view to offering Iran sanctions relief in return for
the regime’s abandonment of its nuclear program.
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has
called the nuclear deal “an empty shell,” under which “every limit that existed
in the JCPOA has been violated several times.”
The Trump administration withdrew from the deal in 2018, arguing that it did not
go far enough in containing the regime’s nuclear ambitions, nor its ballistic
missile program and proxy militia activities throughout the region.
“It’s clear to me that the Biden administration still wants to get back into
this deal,” Bolton told Arab News.
“They can say it’s not on the agenda, it’s in the deep freeze. But (as) we say
in America, it’s not six feet under yet. It is still alive. And I think for many
in the Biden administration, the resistance that we see in Iran today is
inconvenient to their higher objective of getting back into the nuclear deal.”
Analysts say leaving the door open to diplomacy is not so much a reflection of
the West’s hopes of a real breakthrough with Iran, but rather of the dilemma
Western powers face as they run out of alternatives to containing Iran’s nuclear
ambitions.
The preference now, it would appear, is to maintain the status quo, in which all
sides agree implicitly that there is no deal, but also no crisis.
Although this is not an ideal scenario for Iran — with sanctions still in place
and assets frozen — Bolton believes that the status quo benefits the Islamic
Republic.
“Iranian exports of oil are at the highest level today since the reimposition of
the sanctions in 2018 by the Trump administration after we withdrew from the
nuclear deal. And there’s no penalty for Iran. They’re selling oil to China.
(And) Iran is gaining revenue from the purchases of oil by China that it
desperately needs,” he said.
“So (Iran) can live with the status quo for a long time while its nuclear
weapons and ballistic missile programs continue to make progress, while it
continues to sponsor terrorist groups in the region and terrorist attacks
against its enemies around the world, and while it still tries to repress the
resistance to the regime itself inside Iran.”
Iran is now enriching uranium at 60 percent purity — close to weapons grade.
Western nations fear that the JCPOA is the only deterrent that remains to Iran
actually building a nuclear weapon.
Bolton believes this logic is “fundamentally flawed.”
He said: “It’s the deal itself, not even Iran’s violations of the deal, but the
deal itself that allows Iran a path to nuclear weapons.”
The “biggest mistake” that the US and others made in the lead-up to the 2015
accord, he says, was that they did not insist Iran make a clear, unequivocal
decision to give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
“Exactly the opposite was the case. Iran reaffirmed to itself internally that it
wanted nuclear weapons and it would use this deal to revive the economy, to
provide more resources, not just for the weapons program, but for the missile
program, for terrorism and other malign activities.”
BOLTON’S POINTS
* Women’s revolution is an untenable situation for ayatollahs
* Iranian regime at its weakest since 1979 revolution
* The Biden administration is ‘not listening’ to the Arab side
* A fundamental mistake of JCPOA was excluding regional countries
Bolton believes another major flaw of the JCPOA was believing that it was
possible to isolate the nuclear program from Iran’s support for international
terrorism and its conventional military activities in the region.
“That was a mistake,” he said. “But an even more fundamental mistake was to
negotiate with the ayatollahs, without countries in the region being at the
table as well.
“The Biden administration criticized Trump for not taking our allies more into
account by not being more inclusive in our foreign policy. And yet it’s still
the Biden administration that won’t put the GCC countries or Israel or anybody
else into the negotiations.
“These are the countries closest geographically to Iran, most vulnerable to the
terrorist attacks and the threat of Iran’s ballistic missiles and to the nuclear
(threat) as well.
“Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both been targets of Iranian drones and cruise
missiles fired by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. (Iranians have) attacked civilian
infrastructure like the oil industry. They’ve attacked civilian airports.
“Iran has supplied militia groups in Iraq with drones and mortars that have
attacked American and other foreign positions, attacked Sunni locations, (and)
really tried to destabilize the government. They’re assisting Hezbollah and
Hamas.
“This is a regime that threatens everybody. And yet none of the countries that
have borne the brunt of these terrorist activities has any say in the
negotiation. So, I think, if there were a chance to negotiate with the
ayatollahs, and I don’t think that would ever be successful, a good alliance
leader should take account of the interests of all of its members.
“And I don’t think the Biden administration is listening to the Arab side of
this equation.”
Angry demonstrators have taken to the streets of major cities across Iran,
including the capital Tehran, for eight straight nights since the death of
22-year-old Mahsa Amini. (AFP)
In an op-ed for The New York Times in 2015, Bolton wrote: “Had anyone believed
President Obama’s mantra that ‘all options are on the table’ to deal with Iran’s
nuclear weapons program, the Vienna agreement might have emerged less
advantageously for Tehran. But no one took Mr. Obama’s threat of military force
seriously — a credibility gap that … Iran still exploits. Even so, Vice
President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is still trying to reassure nervous Democrats in
Congress that the Vienna agreement does not preclude America’s use of force.”
Today, Bolton says the threat to use force is no longer necessary, because the
alternative to the JCPOA lies in “the people of Iran.”
He said: “They’re out in the streets all over the country. And they’re not
saying ‘Death to America’ anymore. They’re saying ‘Death to the Ayatollah
Khamenei.’
“The regime is not kept in power anymore by support from the people. That’s all
but disappeared. It now rules through the barrel of a gun. And I think the most
likely way the regime will come down will be when the top military leadership
splits.
“And I am confident that that is more likely to happen here because of the
nature of the protests led by Iran’s women. In the Revolutionary Guard and the
regular army, every one of those generals has a mother. They have sisters, wives
and daughters. And they are all hearing the same thing at night every day.
“And I think it means they understand how intolerable their family and others
think the regime is. That is a situation. It’s unsustainable for the
ayatollahs.”
Iranian-American journalist and women's rights activist Masih Alinejad during a
session at the Congress centre during the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual
meeting in Davos on January 19, 2023. (AFP)
Bolton believes the Biden administration and its allies must do more to support
the protest movement, “perhaps by providing communications equipment (so) that
the people within Iran who support the resistance can communicate better.
“There’s really no central leadership to the resistance, which shows how
widespread it is, how spontaneous it was. But better coordination would make
them more powerfully situated in their opposition to the regime and also allow
them to communicate with the diaspora outside Iran.
“And I think we can ask the opposition: What do they really need? Probably just
resources, financial assistance, but perhaps other things as well. And I think
we ought to try and get other countries around the world, and certainly
countries in the region, but also countries from Europe and elsewhere, to come
together to say this is a real opportunity to get a free Iran.
“You know, it’s not just a demonstration against the oppression of the women of
Iran. This is really a direct assault on the legitimacy of the ideological
foundations of the revolution itself. And when you add that to the economic
discontent all over the country that’s been going on for many years now, I think
the regime is in the weakest position it’s been since it took power in 1979.”
Bolton added: “So, if the rest of the world or certainly the US makes it clear
that we support the people and we’re not going to forget the people, and that if
there are things we can do to help them, we’re prepared to do it.
“If they split the Revolutionary Guard, split the military, and the regime comes
down, that we will move quickly to bring them back into the international
community, eliminate the sanctions, allow foreign investment to resuscitate the
oil industry in Iran, and assist them in dismantling the nuclear weapons
program, as we did in the case of Libya, and take it out of the country, to
provide, really, for better safety for the Iranians.”