English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 14/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Everyone who acknowledges me before others, the Son
of Man also will acknowledge before the angels of God but whoever denies me
before others will be denied before the angels of God
Saint Luke 12/08-12/:”‘And I tell you, everyone
who acknowledges me before others, the Son of Man also will acknowledge before
the angels of God; but whoever denies me before others will be denied before the
angels of God. And everyone who speaks a word against the Son of Man will be
forgiven; but whoever blasphemes against the Holy Spirit will not be forgiven.
When they bring you before the synagogues, the rulers, and the authorities, do
not worry about how you are to defend yourselves or what you are to say; for the
Holy Spirit will teach you at that very hour what you ought to
“
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 13-14/2023
The 18th anniversary of the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
Ambassadors of states who took part in Paris meeting from the Grand Serail:
Failure to elect a president will entail the reconsideration of all ties...
Berri chairs Parliament Bureau meeting
Berri meets US, French, Egyptian, Qatari Ambassadors, Saudi Embassy
Representative
Mikati visits Martyr Rafic Hariri’s tomb in Central Beirut
Reports: Paris meeting nations fail to agree on statement, candidate
Envoys of Paris meeting nations meet with Berri, Mikati
Free Patriotic Movement to boycott legislative session
Hezbollah sends aid to Syria's quake-hit Latakia
Mikati broaches media, political affairs with Makary, meets “Democratic
Gathering” bloc delegation, MP Abdel Massih, congratulates new...
Saad Hariri visited Darian and was assured of his health
The head of the Phalange Party visited Hariri at the Wasat House
President Aoun called Hariri again, condoling him on the martyrdom of his
father, and wished him to return to Lebanon
Appointment of Lisa Johnson as the new US Ambassador to Lebanon
The 18th Anniversary of Lebanese Civil War: Updated 2005 Edition/Sam Menassa/Asharq
Al Awsat/February 13/2023
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 13-14/2023
Objects shot down over North America 'all connected'
White House defends decision to shoot down flying objects
UN aid chief: Quake rescue phase ‘coming to a close’
Death toll rises above 35,000 in Turkey, Syria quake
Syria's Mikdad, Pederson discuss boosting role of the UN in responding to
effects of the earthquake
US says not flying any balloons over China
Germany says Finland, Sweden NATO bids must be ratified without delay
'Our Losses Were Gigantic': Life in a Sacrificial Russian Assault Wave
'Little by little they are winning': Russian offensive underway as tide turns in
key Ukraine city. Updates.
White House mocks Putin's mismanagement of the war in Ukraine, saying he changes
generals like 'socks'
Iran’s Raisi to Visit Beijing to Revive ‘Partnership’ with China
US-GCC meetings in Riyadh seek to counter Iranian threats
Thousands march in Israel as Benjamin Netanyahu’s allies push overhaul
Missiles linked to Iran by failure to erase data from drone, MoD officials say
Titles For
The Latest
English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 13-14/2023
Captagon: Assad’s Deadly Drug Of Choice Expands To Israel/Natalie Ecanow/1945
web site/February 13/2023
Is the two-state solution for Israel, Palestine dead? Maybe. But what's the
alternative?/Tracy Wilkinson/LA Times/February 13/2023
Europe's Proxy War against Israel....How The EU Ignores Hamas' Crimes/Bassam
Tawil/Gatestone Institute/February 13, 2023
Apocalyptic quake exploited for cheap propaganda/Baria Alamuddin/Arab
News/February 13, 2023
Macron seeks allies from among those who would replace him/Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab
News/February 13, 2023
More weapons, less refugees: Is Israel a neutral party in the Russia-Ukraine
war?/Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/February 13, 2023
War Propaganda And Ideology At The Edge Of Oblivion/Amb. Alberto M. Fernandez*/
MEMRI Daily Brief No. 455/February 13, 2023|
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 13-14/2023
The 18th anniversary of the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
LCCC/February 14/2023
Today, Lebanon remembers the eighteenth year of the assassination of Prime
Minister Rafik Hariri. Saad Hariri, the son of the martyr, returned to Lebanon
to participate in the commemoration of the painful memory. Our prayers go for
the souls of Lebanon's martyrs.
Ambassadors of states who took part
in Paris meeting from the Grand Serail: Failure to elect a president will entail
the reconsideration of all ties...
NNA /February 13/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati received, at the Grand Serail on Monday,
with the representatives of the five states who took part in the Paris meeting
on Lebanon, namely French Ambassador Anne Grillo, US Ambassador Dorothy Shea,
Egyptian Ambassador Yasser Alawi, Qatari Ambassador Ibrahim Abdulaziz Al-Sahlawi,
and the Counselor at the Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon,
Fares Al-Amoudi. The ambassadors stressed that no final statement was issued
following the Paris talks since the meetings are still "open and ongoing in
order to support Lebanon and encourage the election of a new president of the
republic.""The real support for Lebanon will begin after the election of the new
president, and then the enaction of the required reforms," they said. They also
warned that the failure to elect a president will entail the reconsideration of
all ties with Lebanon. "If the MPs do not assume their duties, the foreign
states will not be keener than the Lebanese officials themselves," they
underlined.
Berri chairs Parliament Bureau meeting
NNA /February 13/2023
House Speaker Nabih Berri on Monday chaired a meeting for the Parliament Bureau,
attended by MPs Alain Aoun, Hadi Aboul Hosn, Hagop Pakradounian, Abdel Karim
Tabbara and Michel Moussa, as well as the Parliament Secretary General Adnan
Daher.
The Bureau decided to resume discussions in a meeting to be held at 2:00 pm on
Monday, February 20.
Berri meets US, French, Egyptian, Qatari Ambassadors, Saudi
Embassy Representative
NNA /February 13/2023
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday met at the Second Presidency in Ain El-Tineh,
with US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, French Ambassador, Anne Grillo,
Egyptian Ambassador, Dr. Yasser Alawi, Qatari Ambassador Ibrahim Abdulaziz Al-Sahlawi,
and the Counselor at the Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon,
Fares Al-Amoudi
Mikati visits Martyr Rafic Hariri’s tomb in Central Beirut
NNA /February 13/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, on Monday visited the tomb of Martyr
Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in downtown Beirut, marking the anniversary of his
assassination. Premier Mikati read the "Fatihah" for the souls of the late Prime
Minister Hariri and his companions to rest in peace
Reports: Paris meeting nations fail to agree on statement,
candidate
Naharnet /February 13/2023
The latest Paris meeting on Lebanon witnessed “general discussions and no
presidential candidate was endorsed, knowing that the deliberations involved
names of candidates,” a media report said on Monday. “As France said that it was
not opposed to any candidate on whom there might be consensus, be him Suleiman
Franjieh or Joseph Aoun, while being in favor of keeping Najib Mikati at the
head of the coming government, the Saudi side expressed clear opposition to
Franjieh and Mikati, stressing that the government and the presidency are
linked,” al-Akhbar newspaper said. The Saudi delegation meanwhile called for
“electing a sovereign, incorrupt president for Lebanon who would restore
Lebanon’s ties with the Arab and Western countries,” the daily added. The Saudis
also demanded “imposing sanctions on those obstructing the presidential
election, but this demand did not receive consensus,” the newspaper said.
Informed diplomatic sources meanwhile told al-Joumhouria newspaper that “no
closing statement was issued after the five-party meeting after French diplomacy
failed to win the support of the other four parties for a draft statement that
it had proposed and distributed to them.”
Envoys of Paris meeting nations meet with Berri, Mikati
Naharnet /February 13/2023
Envoys from five countries that took part in the latest Paris meeting on Lebanon
– U.S., France, Egypt, Qatar and KSA – met Monday in Beirut with Speaker Nabih
Berri and caretaker PM Najib Mikati. The foreign delegation was comprised of
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea, French Ambassador to Lebanon Anne
Grillo, Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon Yasser Elwy, Qatari Ambassador to Lebanon
Ibrahim Abdul Aziz al-Sahlawi and Saudi Embassy Counselor Fares al-Amoudi. Ain
el-Tineh sources meanwhile told al-Jadeed TV that the ambassadors put Berri in
the picture of the Paris meeting and did not tackle names of presidential
candidates. “They rather urged the election of a president, the formation of a
government and cooperation with the International Monetary Fund,” the sources
added.
Free Patriotic Movement to boycott legislative session
Naharnet /February 13/2023
MP Alain Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement will inform the Parliament Bureau
on Monday that the Strong Lebanon bloc will not take part in an upcoming
legislative session, MTV reported. The Bureau is scheduled to meet later on
Monday to discuss possible consensus on the legislative session’s agenda, which
includes 81 articles, most notably the capital control law and the extension of
the terms of directors general and security chiefs, topped by General Security
chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, who reaches the age of retirement next month. FPM
chief Jebran Bassil meanwhile told al-Akhbar newspaper that the Strong Lebanon
bloc “certainly will not take part” in the session, noting that “what applies to
the caretaker cabinet amid the presidential void also applies to parliament,
which is considered an electoral body except for emergency and utmost necessity
situations.”The FPM’s boycott and the Lebanese Forces’ rejection mean that the
session will not be attended by the country’s biggest two Christian blocs, which
might push Speaker Nabih Berri to refrain from calling for the session.
Forty-six MPs – the LF bloc, the Kataeb bloc, the Change bloc and independents –
had on Saturday declared their boycott of the session, vowing to file appeals
against its resolutions. Al-Akhbar meanwhile reported that a meeting will be
held Tuesday at MP Nabil Bader’s residence and will be attended by the MPs Bilal
Hshaimi, Mohammed Suleiman, Imad al-Hout, Abdul Aziz al-Samad, Ahmed al-Kheir
and Walid al-Baarini. The conferees will mull their participation in the
session. The Tashnag Party will also hold a meeting to discuss its possible
participation. Political sources meanwhile told al-Akhbar that “contacts are
ongoing to introduce agenda amendments that would meet the conditions that the
blocs are putting, especially the FPM, in a bid to convince them to
participate.”
Hezbollah sends aid to Syria's quake-hit Latakia
Agence France Presse /February 13/2023
Hezbollah has sent a convoy of 23 trucks carrying food and medical aid to
Syria's quake-stricken province of Latakia, a stronghold of the group's allies.
"This the moment of support, the moment of assistance," senior Hezbollah
official Sayyed Hashem Safieddine told reporters in Beirut. It comes six days
after a devastating earthquake struck Turkey and Syria, killing more than 33,000
people in total, including over 3,500 in Syria. Latakia, located in Syria's
northwestern region, is a stronghold for President Bashar al-Assad. The
Iran-backed Hezbollah is a key ally of Assad's regime and has openly been
fighting alongside his forces since April 2013. Hezbollah's involvement in the
Syrian conflict has helped tip the scales in favor of Assad on many fronts.
Adnan Moqadem, general director of civil defense in Hezbollah's health
authority, said this first convoy "will be followed by others."The convoy,
carrying "food, health and household supplies," will be delivered to the Red
Crescent and Syrian officials, Moqadem said. The trucks carried banners marked
with both the Syrian flag and of Hezbollah. Lebanon has adopted a policy of
dissociation from Syria's years-long war but on Wednesday, it sent its first
high-level official delegation and rescue team to Damascus since the start of
the conflict.The delegation met with Assad and expressed readiness to open
Lebanon's air and sea ports to help send aid to Syria. On Saturday, two Italian
planes arrived at Beirut airport, carrying medical aid to be sent to Syria.
Mikati broaches media, political affairs with Makary, meets
“Democratic Gathering” bloc delegation, MP Abdel Massih, congratulates new...
NNA /February 13/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Monday with Caretaker Minister of
Information, Ziad Makary, with whom he broached an array of national, political
and media affairs. Caretaker Minister Makary indicated that he briefed Premier
Mikati on the atmosphere of his impending visit to Paris to meet with officials
of the Ministry of Culture, UNESCO and prestigious French media institutions in
order to support Television of Lebanon (TL). Premier Mikati also received Head
of the “Democratic Gathering” parliamentary bloc, MP Taymour Jumblatt,
accompanied by the Bloc MPs Wael Abu Faour and Akram Chehayeb. On emerging, MP
Jumblatt said that they thanked Premier Mikati for the efforts made to secure
the return of students to schools, and to give teachers their rights in the
educational domain. In response to a question, MP Jumblatt said that they
conducted a tour d’horizon bearing on all political issues, hoping that there
will be a dialogue to reach a consensus president as soon as possible. In
response to another question whether the Democratic Gathering will attend the
legislative session, MP Jumbaltt said: “If a legislative session is called for,
and there are topics that serve the people in their issues and concerns, we will
not fail to carry out our duty, but we will have our opinion within the
sessions.” Mikati later met with MP Adib Abdel Massih, who said after the
meeting that they discussed an array of general national affairs, especially
those related to the Koura district and its needs.On the other hand, the Prime
Minister contacted by phone the new Cypriot President, Nikos Christodoulides,
and congratulated him on his election as Cyprus’s President and wished him
success in his duties.
Saad Hariri visited Darian and was assured of
his health
NNA-LCCC/February 13/2023
This evening, Prime Minister Saad Hariri visited the Grand Mufti of the Lebanese
Republic, Sheikh Abd al-Latif Darian, and was assured of his health.
The head of the Phalange Party visited Hariri at the Wasat
House
NNA-LCCC/February 13/2023
The head of the Lebanese Kataeb Party, Representative Sami Gemayel, visited Al-Wasat
House, where he met Prime Minister Saad Hariri. A statement by the brigades
stated that "during the meeting, developments were discussed."
President Aoun called Hariri again, condoling him on the
martyrdom of his father, and wished him to return to Lebanon
NNA-LCCC/February 13/2023
The media office of President General Michel Aoun announced that Aoun "conferred
this evening with President Saad Hariri, renewing his condolences for the
martyrdom of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and his companions. President Aoun
wished Hariri to return to Lebanon after a long absence, because the country
needs all its people and energies today."More about this source textSource text
required for additional translation information
Appointment of Lisa Johnson as the new US Ambassador to
Lebanon
Al-Modon-LCCC/February 14, 2023
US President Joe Biden appointed Lisa Johnson as the new ambassador of the
United States of America to Lebanon, to succeed the current ambassador Dorothy
Shea, who was approved for transfer to the United Nations, to be the deputy head
of the US mission in New York. This is considered an upgrade to chia. It is
assumed that the US Congress will approve this decision to determine the date
for Johnson's assumption of her new duties in Lebanon. It is noteworthy that
Johnson holds the position of Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and
Asia in the Office of Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement. Johnson has moved
in key positions within her diplomatic work, as she was the ambassador of her
country in Namibia, as well as her country's representative in the office of the
Secretary-General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Brussels.
Within the United States, she has been appointed Director of the National
Security Council for Middle Eastern Affairs since 2001, Director of the
Political-Military Bureau of Israel in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the
State Department, Observer in the Operations Center in the Bureau of Near
Eastern Affairs, Deputy Commander of the US National War College and his advisor
for international affairs, and Director The Africa and Middle East Bureau of the
Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs. Johnson knows
Lebanon well, as she served in her country's embassy in Beirut between 2002 and
2004. She also has her friendships and relations with various Lebanese levels.
Johnson will serve as a chargé d'affaires until a president is elected to
present her credentials to him.
Johnson was born in Washington in 1967. After obtaining a BA in Political
Science from Stanford University, she majored in International Affairs at
Columbia University, before completing her studies in National Security Strategy
at the National War College. She entered the US diplomatic service in 1992, and
holds the position of Senior Adviser to South and Central Asia in the Office of
the US Vice President, Director of the National Security Council for Middle East
Affairs since 2001, and Deputy Director of the Office of Canadian Affairs. She
served in Lebanon between 2002 and 2004 when Vincent Battle was ambassador to
his country. In Beirut, and witnessed the handover process between him and his
successor, Jeffrey Feltman.
The 18th Anniversary of Lebanese Civil War:
Updated 2005 Edition
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al Awsat/February 13/2023
The first edition of the Lebanese civil war ended in 1990, after the Syrian army
entered the Baabda Palace and ministry of defense, with General Michel Aoun, the
country’s prime minister at the time, fleeing to the French Embassy.
February 14, the day Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was assassinated in 2005, marks
the 18th anniversary of the outbreak of this war’s second edition.
We will not get into the debate about whether the first war (1975 - 1990) had
been a civil war or, as some claim, a war waged on Lebanese territory by others.
The real question is whether the first edition of the war actually ended in 1990
or became latent until Hariri’s convoy was blown up, in what was a political
earthquake that changed the form and trajectory of its predecessor after the
circumstances in Lebanon, the region and the world had changed.
We start with the repercussions of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq that “sparked”
extremist Islamic groups into existence and almost handed the country over to
Iran. Then came the Arab Spring and its last stage that was the 2011 revolution
against the Bashar al-Assad regime and the ensuing Russian reentry into the
region. We also have the outbreak of the conflict between Iran and the Gulf that
broke out after the Velayet-e-Faqih’s sectarian expansion into the Levant.
Lebanon was the focal point, and the assassination of a Lebanese and Arab Sunni
figure of the stature of Hariri was only a sign of this project’s ultimate goals
crystalizing. All of this culminated in the US retreating from the region,
Europe meekly standing aside, the souring of US relations with its Arab allies,
and a radical shift in the Arab-Israeli conflict after the Abraham Accords and
normalization.
The new edition of the war rages on, and no solutions or potential settlements
are on the horizon. Some may ask, why should we consider this phase an extension
of the Lebanese war that broke out in 1975? This is a valid question. Indeed,
the 1975 war witnessed armed clashes, conflict lines, kidnappings, foreigners
being taken hostage, mass liquidations, car bombings, and assassinations that
took the lives of two presidents, a prime minister, and several politicians and
clerics, including the grand mufti.
This edition of the war also saw two Israeli invasions, one in 1978 and another
in 1982, when the Jewish state’s forces entered the capital, Beirut. It saw
several Arab and international peace initiatives, and military interventions by
Arab and international forces, ending with the Taif Agreement and the entry of
the Arab Deterrent Force, which was subsequently reduced to the Syrian army.
The new edition of the Lebanese war is more complex and difficult than the first
for internal and external factors. The latter will be discussed on another
occasion. First and foremost, among the internal factors is the introduction of
armed Palestinian groups, which remained in the country until 1982, and the
entry of the Assad regime’s army and intelligence services, which remained in
the country for over 29 years (1976 - 2005).
Today, we have a totally different state of affairs on our hands. Iran’s
hegemony is evident but difficult to approach and deal with because it is hidden
under a Lebanese cloak.
When the Palestinians and Syrians were in the country, demanding that these
foreigners leave was easy, legitimate and natural. In the end, this call
received direct international support, especially from France and the US. This
led to the withdrawal of the Syrian army from Lebanon, with its ally Iran taking
direct control. Demanding that the foreign actor withdraw tomorrow is difficult.
This fact may have never been more evident as emphatically as it was in Paris
last week. The five participants could not agree on a statement. They thus left
it to the Lebanese, calling on them to elect a president and implement reforms,
making no reference to Hezbollah. They cannot deny that it is a Lebanese actor
despite its total dependence on Iran.
The second factor is that the current war is of a political, not sectarian,
nature. Despite the dominance of Hezbollah, which has military, financial and
intelligence capabilities that have allowed this sectarian political force to
exert unprecedented influence in the modern history of Lebanon. It was mindful
of the importance of giving other sects a kind of safety and security, as well
as allowing Beirut to remain a diverse space that maintains a minimal degree of
its former luster.
Nonetheless, we should bear in mind that the capital has been subjected to
profound cultural and social changes as a result of Iran’s role and its
influence on the Shiite community, which it exerts through Hezbollah, and its
implication for every segment of Lebanese society. Indeed, Hezbollah has
appealed to a segment of Christians through a delusional project, the alliance
of minorities, under the pretext of protecting them and safeguarding their
rights.
The third factor is the unprecedented disruption and paralysis of state
institutions. In fact, things have become so dire that we can now call the
country a failed state. During the 1975 war, state institutions continued to
function when security conditions permitted, and political disputes did not, in
themselves, hinder presidential elections or the formation of governments.
The fourth factor is that only one militia has its hands on an illegitimate
arsenal. This has other parties marginalized. At the very least, it has
undermined their influence. Meanwhile, the one armed party has become stronger
than most of the region’s regular armies. The latent threat of its use is always
there. At times, this threat is explicit. This arsenal casts a shadow over the
internal balance of power, granting those who possess it the reigns of political
power.
The fact that a single party has a monopoly on illegitimate arms is one of the
reasons that the acute political conflict has not morphed into a military
conflict or a militia war like the one that began in 1975. Nonetheless, a mafia
war continues through the assassinations of opposition figures.
The fifth factor is that Lebanon’s economy and society have changed over the
past 18 years. We have seen a transfer of wealth that left the middle class
losing out. This class is suffering from a decline that threatens its political,
economic, social and cultural influence. This shift culminated with the collapse
of the national currency and banking sector, and the evisceration of bank
deposits, as well as the collapse, to different degrees, of the health and
education services and tourism
The sixth factor is that over one million displaced Syrians are in the country.
It is difficult to imagine these persons returning to Syria in the near or even
the medium term due to many factors. The most notable of these considerations is
the unprecedented degree of violence, which has reached the point of ethnic
cleansing at times, that the country has seen. Cities, villages, and
infrastructure have been wiped out. We should also account, here, for the
demographic shift engendered by the emigration of the Lebanese. The majority of
those leaving the country are young, educated professionals and other well-off
segments of society, as well as mostly Christians.
The Lebanese missed the opportunity to end the 1975 war when they replaced the
armed Palestinian groups with the Syrian regime’s army, which fully controlled
Lebanon until 2005. They also missed the opportunity to end it through the
implementation of the Taif Agreement after Aoun refused to hand over power to
the elected president, Rene Moawad, choosing to wage his reckless wars instead.
Another opportunity was squandered in 2005, when, on the one hand, US and French
interest was at its peak and, on the other, the Syrian army left the country.
At this juncture, in 2005, a historic opportunity to end the Lebanese crisis
that could have contained Hezbollah through the implementation of Resolution
1559 arose. It was lost because of the Quadripartite Alliance and the
miscalculations of all Lebanese parties. Because of Hezbollah’s strength and the
fact that other parties made the losing bet of Lebanonizing the party, the party
managed to turn against everyone and replicated the role that had previously
been played by the Syrian regime. The war thus continued.
In conclusion, the ongoing war that began in 2005 has most of the disadvantages
of the 1975 war. However, it added another form of violence to the political and
military violence - economic, social, financial, educational and healthcare
violence. Much of what we had seen during the first phase of the war witnessed
was seen again in the second phase, albeit in different ways.
This time, the violence was manifested in targeted assassinations of the
foundational figures of the state and the country. With all the domestic,
regional and international developments that have unfolded since 2005, the local
and international settlements that had been tenable for a long time have become
outdated. They will have no core impact on the Lebanese crisis.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on February 13-14/2023
Objects shot down over North
America 'all connected'
Nick Allen/The Telegraph/Mon, February 13, 2023
Justin Trudeau said the four objects shot down over North America in recent days
displayed a “pattern” and were connected in some way.
It came as US and Canadian officials struggled to explain the origin of three of
the objects that were downed in the wake of a Chinese spy balloon being
destroyed on Feb 4 off the South Carolina coast. The Canadian prime minister
said: “Obviously there is some sort of pattern in there – the fact we are seeing
this in a significant degree over the past week is a cause for interest and
close attention.” Mr Trudeau did not elaborate on what the “pattern” was. On
Sunday, US military fighter jets shot down an octagonal object over Lake Huron.
The day before, a cylindrical object was destroyed over Canada’s Yukon and
investigators are still hunting for the wreckage. A day before that, on Friday,
an object was shot down over sea ice near Deadhorse, Alaska. Mr Trudeau,
speaking in Whitehorse, Yukon’s capital, said winter weather was hampering
recovery efforts. He said it was a “very serious situation” and he would discuss
the issue of aerial objects with Joe Biden when they meet next month. Asked why
Canada itself did not shoot down the object over Yukon, Trudeau said: “Norad
(North American Aerospace Defense Command) is a joint command, which means we do
things together over North America, and there were Canadian and American fighter
jets scrambled to intercept the object and to take it down.
“Our focus was not on which side gets credit for what.”John Kirby, the White
House National Security Council spokesman, said he could not elaborate on the
“pattern” Mr Trudeau referred to. He suggested it could mean that all the
objects were moving in the same direction, with the prevailing winds, west to
east across North America. Mr Kirby also said that the US will ask allies to
provide any details of similar unidentified objects over their air space. The US
president has directed Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, Lloyd Austin, the
defence secretary, and Avril Haines, the Director of National intelligence, to
speak to their counterparts in order to “share what we’re learning, but also get
their perspectives,” Mr Kirby said. He added: “We’re going to have those kinds
of conversations with allies and partners, what kind of experiences they have
had, to see what we can learn from them, and also what they can learn from us.
“Our friends and our partners are dealing with this as well. This is an issue
that affects everyone around the world. The president has made this a very top
priority.” Mr Kirby denied allegations by Beijing that the US had flown spy
balloons over China. He added that there were no US surveillance aircraft of any
kind in Chinese air space. He said that US radar had been reset in the wake of
the Chinese spy balloon to pick up high-altitude, slow-moving objects. Mr Kirby
said: “One of the reasons we think we’re seeing more is because we’re
looking.”Some of the payload from the Chinese spy balloon, including some of its
electronics, had been recovered from 45ft of water off South Carolina, he said.
Asked if the incidents had set back relations with China, Mr Kirby said: “It has
certainly not helped us move forward in the way that we wanted to move.” Mr
Kirby officially ruled out that any of the objects shot down were of
extraterrestrial origin. He said: “I don’t think the American people need to
worry about aliens with respect to these craft. Period.” Karine Jean-Pierre,
White House press secretary, said: “I know there have been questions and
concerns about this but there is no, again no indication of aliens or
extraterrestrial activity with these recent takedowns.”On Sunday, a US Air Force
general had said he could not rule out aliens, or any other explanation.
White House defends decision to shoot down flying objects
Sam Cabral - BBC News, Washington/Mon, February
13, 2023
The White House has said its decision to shoot down three objects flying over
North American airspace this weekend was "out of an abundance of caution". The
objects posed a threat to commercial flights and were downed in the "best
interests" of the American people, spokesman John Kirby said. The US is
scrutinising its airspace more closely since the recent incursion of a suspected
spy balloon from China. Beijing has alleged that Washington is flying its own
balloons over China. China's foreign ministry said on Monday that the US has
flown balloons into its airspace more than 10 times in the past year. "It's not
uncommon as well for the US to illegally enter the airspace of other countries,"
spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters. Speaking from the White House, Mr Kirby
denied the allegation: "We are not flying surveillance balloons over China. I'm
not aware of any other craft we're flying into Chinese airspace."
On 4 February, a high-altitude balloon was downed off the coast of South
Carolina after moving for days over the continental US. US officials said it
originated in China and had been used to monitor sensitive military sites, but
China denied the object was used for spying and said it was a weather monitoring
device that had blown astray. Since that first incident, American fighter jets
have shot down three further high-altitude objects in as many days - over
Alaska, Canada's Yukon territory, and Michigan - and the administration has been
under pressure to explain what the objects were. Mr Kirby, who leads
communications for the president's National Security Council, said there were
differences between the alleged Chinese spy balloon and the three objects downed
over the weekend. He said the latter did not pose "any direct threat to people
on the ground" but were taken down "to protect our security, our interests and
flight safety". Efforts are currently under way to collect debris from where the
objects fell, but Mr Kirby noted the objects in Alaska and Canada are in remote
terrain and will be difficult to find in winter weather conditions, while the
object in Michigan lies in the deep waters of Lake Huron.
Officials have not yet been able to "definitively assess" what these objects are
but have not ruled out the possibility they were conducting surveillance, he
said. He claimed that Beijing is operating a "balloon programme for intelligence
collection" that has ties to the Chinese military and was not detected during
the Trump administration. "We detected it. We tracked it, and we have been
carefully studying it to learn as much as we can," he said.
UN aid chief: Quake rescue phase
‘coming to a close’
Reuters/February 13, 2023
ALEPPO: The phase of the rescue after the major earthquake struck Turkiye and
Syria a week ago is “coming to a close” with urgency now switching to shelter,
food, schooling and psychosocial care, the UN aid chief said during a visit to
Syria on Monday. “What is the most striking here, is even in Aleppo, which has
suffered so much these many years, this moment ... was about the worst that
these people have experienced,” Martin Griffiths said from the government-held
northwestern Syrian city of Aleppo that was a major front line in the Syrian
civil war. The Feb. 6 earthquake struck a swathe of northwest Syria, a region
partitioned by the 11-year-long war, including insurgent-held territory at the
Turkish border and government areas controlled by President Bashar Assad.
Griffiths said the United Nations would have aid moving from government-held
regions to the rebel-held northwest, a front line across which aid has seldom
passed during the conflict. Aid appeals would be issued for all the regions hit
by the disaster, he added. “We’ll have assistance moving from here into the
northwest but the northwest is only one part of Syria ... it’s also very
important that we take care of the people here,” Griffiths said. The death toll
in Syria jumped on Monday. The United Nations said more than 4,300 had been
reported killed in the northwest, and more than 7,600 injured. The death toll in
Syrian government stands at 1,414. Griffiths said he had heard traumatic
accounts of the disaster from survivors in Aleppo. “People who lost their
children, some of whom escaped, others stayed in the building. The trauma of the
people we spoke to was visible and this is a trauma which the world needs to
heal,” he said.
Death toll rises above 35,000 in Turkey, Syria
quake
Agence France Presse /February 13/2023
The death toll from a catastrophic earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria climbed
above 35,000 on Monday, with search and rescue teams starting to wind down their
work. Officials and medics said 31,643 people had died in Turkey and 3,581 in
Syria from last Monday's 7.8-magnitude tremor, bringing the confirmed total to
35,224.
Syria's Mikdad, Pederson discuss boosting role of the UN in
responding to effects of the earthquake
NNA /February 13/2023
Syrian Foreign and Expatriates Minister, Dr. Fayssal Mikdad discussed Monday
with the United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, and the
accompanying delegation efforts that could be undertaken to enhance the role of
United Nation in responding to the devastating effects of the earthquake in
Syria, with emphasizing on the need not to politicize the humanitarian issue and
respect Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Pedersen expressed his
deep condolences for the earthquake victims, affirming readiness to do
everything poosible to help Syria overcome the effects of this disaster. Mikdad,
in turn, thanked the UN Secretary-General and the Special Envoy for their
solidarity with Syria in light of this unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe.
He stressed Syria’s keenness to provide all possible support to people affected
by the earthquake and deliver humanitarian aid to all those in need in all areas
without any discrimination. Mikdad asserted Syria’s readiness to work closely
with various United Nations agencies to strengthen and support the efforts of
the Syrian state in facing the catastrophic repercussions caused by the
earthquake. Mikdad pointed out the need to lift all unilateral coercive measures
imposed on the Syrian people. -- SANA News Agency
US says not flying any balloons over China
Agence France Presse /February 13/2023
The White House on Monday denied Beijing's accusation that the United States has
been sending balloons over China to conduct surveillance, as tensions about
espionage rise between the two superpowers. "Any claim that the U.S. government
operates surveillance balloons over the PRC is false," National Security Council
spokesperson Adrienne Watson said on Twitter. "It is China that has a
high-altitude surveillance balloon program for intelligence collection, that it
has used to violate the sovereignty of the U.S. and over 40 countries across 5
continents."The State Department responded with a similar rejection, and called
Beijing's accusation "the latest example of China scrambling to do damage
control." "It has repeatedly and wrongly claimed the surveillance balloon it
sent over the United States was a weather balloon and to this day has failed to
offer any credible explanations for its intrusion into our airspace and the
airspace of others," a State Department spokesperson said in a statement.
Earlier Monday China hit back against U.S. charges of balloon espionage,
accusing the United States of having sent more than 10 balloons into its
airspace since January 2022. Washington's response marked the latest development
in an increasingly tense saga that included the downing of an alleged Chinese
spy balloon off the coast of South Carolina earlier this month, after it had
traversed much of the United States. The U.S. military subsequently shot down
three other unidentified objects over North America in recent days, sparking
widespread jitters and speculation as to their origins. Only the first object
has been officially attributed to China, with Beijing insisting it was a
civilian craft that had blown off course. On Monday, White House spokesman John
Kirby said U.S. authorities "haven't been able to gain access" yet to the latest
three objects shot down, due largely to weather conditions which have slowed
search and recovery operations.
Germany says Finland, Sweden NATO bids must be
ratified without delay
HELSINKI (Reuters)/Mon, February 13, 2023
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called on Turkey and Hungary to pave
the way for Finland and Sweden to join NATO, stating she expects all NATO
members to ratify their bids to join the defence alliance "without further
delay". The accession of the two countries would strengthen the alliance as a
whole and the two should join together, Baerbock told a news conference in
Helsinki with her Finnish counterpart, Pekka Haavisto. Finland and Sweden sought
membership after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year and have said they want
to join "hand in hand", but while most member states have given the applications
the green light, Turkey and Hungary are yet to ratify them. Ankara said this
month it supported Finland's application but wants Stockholm in particular to
take a tougher line against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is
considered a terrorist group by Turkey and the European Union, and another group
it blames for a 2016 coup attempt. It suspended talks last month as tensions
rose following protests in Stockholm in which a far-right Danish politician
burned a copy of the Koran. Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said in November 2022
the country's parliament would ratify NATO membership for the two countries
early this year.
'Our Losses Were Gigantic': Life in a Sacrificial Russian
Assault Wave
Andrew E. Kramer/The New York Times Company/February 13, 2023
LVIV, Ukraine — Creeping forward along a tree line late at night toward an
entrenched Ukrainian position, the Russian soldier watched in horror as his
comrades were mowed down by enemy fire.
His squad of 10 ex-convicts advanced only a few dozen yards before being
decimated. “We were hit by machine-gun fire,” said the soldier, a private named
Sergei.
One soldier was wounded and screamed, “Help me! Help me, please!,” the private
said, although no help arrived. Eight soldiers were killed, one escaped back to
Russian lines and Sergei was captured by Ukrainians.
The soldiers were sitting ducks, sent forth by Russian commanders to act
essentially as human cannon fodder in an assault. There are two main uses of the
conscripts in this tactic: as “storm troops” who move in waves, followed by more
experienced Russian fighters, and as intentional targets, to draw fire and thus
identify Ukrainian positions to hit with artillery.
Either way, they have become an integral component of Russia’s military strategy
as it presses a new offensive in Ukraine’s east: relying on overwhelming
manpower, much of it comprising inexperienced, poorly trained conscripts,
regardless of the high rate of casualties.
In interviews last week, a half-dozen prisoners of war provided rare firsthand
accounts of what it is like to be part of a sacrificial Russian assault. “These
orders were common, so our losses were gigantic,” Sergei said. “The next group
would follow after a pause of 15 or 20 minutes, then another, then another.”
Of his combat experience, he said, “It was the first and last wave for me.” By
luck, the bullets missed him, he said. He lay in the dark until he was captured
by Ukrainians who slipped into the buffer area between the two trench lines.
The New York Times interviewed the Russians at a detention center near Lviv, in
Ukraine’s west, where many captured enemy soldiers are sent. From there, some
are returned to Russia in prisoner exchanges. The Times also viewed videos of
interrogations by the Ukrainian authorities. The prisoners are identified only
by first name and rank for security reasons, because of the possibility of
retribution once they are returned.
Although they are prisoners of war overseen by Ukrainians, the Russians said
they spoke freely. Their accounts could not be independently corroborated but
conformed with assessments of the fighting around the eastern Ukrainian city of
Bakhmut by Western governments and military analysts.
The soldiers in Sergei’s squad were recruited from penal colonies by the private
military company known as Wagner, whose forces have mostly been deployed in the
Bakhmut area. There, they have enabled Russian lines to move forward slowly,
cutting key resupply roads for the Ukrainian army.
Russia’s deployment of former convicts is a dark chapter in a vicious war.
Russia Behind Bars, a prison rights group, has estimated that as many as 50,000
Russian prisoners have been recruited since last summer, with most sent to the
battle for Bakhmut.
In the early phases of the war, the Russian army had copious armored vehicles,
artillery and other heavy weaponry but relatively few soldiers on the
battlefield. Now, the tables have turned: Russia has deployed about 320,000
soldiers in Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency. An
additional 150,000 are in training camps, officials said, meaning there is the
potential for a half-million soldiers to join the offensive.
But using infantry to storm trenches, redolent of World War I, brings high
casualties. So far, the tactic has been used primarily by Wagner in the push for
Bakhmut. Last week, the head of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said he would end the
practice of recruiting convicts. But Russia’s regular army this month began
recruiting convicts in exchange for pardons, shifting the practice on the
Russian side in the war from the Wagner private army to the military.
Some military analysts and Western governments have questioned Russia’s
strategy, citing rates of wounded and killed at about 70% in battalions
featuring former convicts. On Sunday, the British defense intelligence agency
said that over the past two weeks, Russia had probably suffered its highest rate
of casualties since the first week of the invasion. Interviews with former
Wagner soldiers at the Ukrainian detention center aligned with these
descriptions of the fighting — and shed light on a violent, harrowing experience
for Russian soldiers.
“Nobody could ever believe such a thing could exist,” Sergei said of Wagner
tactics. Sergei sat, shoulders slumped, on the sofa in the warden’s office of
the Ukrainian detention center. He was balding and wore shoes without laces.
The soldiers arrived at the front straight from Russia’s penal colony system,
which is rife with abuse and where obedience to harsh codes of conduct in a
violent setting is enforced by prison gangs and guards alike. The same sense of
beaten subjugation persists at the front, Sergei said, enabling commanders to
send soldiers forward on hopeless, human wave attacks. “We are prisoners, even
if former prisoners,” he said. “We are nobody and have no rights.”Sergei said he
had worked as a cellphone tower technician in a far-northern Siberian city,
living with his wife and three children. In the interview, he admitted to
dealing marijuana and meth, for which he was sentenced to 10 years in prison in
2020.
In October, he accepted an offer to fight in exchange for a pardon. The
arrangement, he said, was not offered to rapists and drug addicts, but
murderers, burglars and other prisoners were welcome.
“Of course, any normal person fears death,” he said. “But a pardon for eight
years is valuable.”
The fighting would turn out to be far more dangerous than he had imagined. In
three days at the front south of Bakhmut, Sergei first served as a stretcher
bearer, carrying out mangled, bloody former prisoners who had been killed or
wounded in an omen of what awaited him when ordered to join an assault. On the
night of Jan. 1, they were commanded to advance 500 yards along the tree line,
then dig in and wait for a subsequent wave to arrive. One soldier carried a
light machine gun. The others were armed with only assault rifles and hand
grenades. The sequential assaults on Ukrainian lines by small units of former
Russian prisoners have become a signature Russian tactic in the effort to
capture Bakhmut. “We see them crawl for a kilometer or more,” toward Ukrainian
trenches, then open fire at close range and try to capture positions, Col. Roman
Kostenko, chair of the defense and intelligence committee in Ukraine’s
parliament, said in an interview. “It’s effective. Yes, they have heavy losses.
But with these heavy losses, they sometimes advance.” It could be, Kostenko
said, that such infantry assaults on entrenched defenses will remain mostly
confined to the fight for Bakhmut and that they are being used to conserve tanks
and armored personnel carriers for the expected offensive. But they could also
serve as a template for wider fighting.
The former convicts, Kostenko said, are herded into the battlefield by harsh
discipline: “They have orders, and they cannot disobey orders, especially in
Wagner.”A private named Aleksandr, 44, who shaved three years off a sentence for
illegal logging by enlisting with Wagner, said that before deploying to the
front he was told he would be shot if he disobeyed orders to advance. “They
brought us to a basement, divided us into five-person groups and, though we
hadn’t been trained, told us to run ahead, as far as we could go,” he said of
his commanders.
His dash toward Ukrainian lines in a group of five soldiers ended with three
dead and two captured. Another captured Russian, Eduard, 22, enlisted to get
four years cut from a sentence for car theft. He spent three months at the front
as a stretcher bearer before being ordered forward. He was captured on his first
human wave assault. From his time as a stretcher bearer, he said, he estimated
that half of the men in each assault were wounded or killed, with shrapnel and
bullet wounds the most common injuries. Sergei said he had initially been
pleased with the offer of a pardon in exchange for service in Wagner. “When I
came to this war, I thought it was worth it,” he said. But after his one
experience in an assault, he changed his mind. “I started to think things over
in a big way,’’ he said. “Of course, it wasn’t worth it.”
'Little by little they are winning': Russian offensive
underway as tide turns in key Ukraine city. Updates.
John Bacon, USA TODAY/February 13, 2023
Russia has already begun its anticipated spring offensive in Ukraine, sending
thousands of additional troops in an attempt to overwhelm Ukraine's defenses,
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday. "The reality is that we
have seen the start already," Stoltenberg said. "We see how they are sending
more troops, more weapons, more capabilities."Stoltenberg, speaking ahead of a
two-day meeting of defense ministers in Brussels, Belgium, confirmed Ukraine
claims that Russian troops appeared to be pushing forward with little regard for
their own heavy losses. And he said NATO plans to increase its ammunition
stockpiles that have been depleted by the war. A proposal to provide fighter
jets to Ukraine would be discussed, Stoltenberg said, denying Russian assertions
that providing them would make NATO countries "direct" parties to the conflict.
FIGHTER JETS COULD BE KEY: Ukraine sets its sight on warplanes
Developments:
►In the the Luhansk region of the Donbas, Russian troops pulled back after
several days of intense fighting near Kreminna, Luhansk Gov. Serhii Haidai told
Ukrainian TV.
►In the partially occupied southern region of Kherson, artillery hit more than
20 cities and villages – including the regional capital that was recaptured by
Ukrainian forces in November.
Russia gains ground in Bakhmut: 'Little by little they are winning'
The battle for the pivotal city of Bakhmut in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region
has seen some of the fiercest fighting of the invasion. Ukraine President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy's office said the situation in Bakhmut's northern suburb of
Paraskoviivka was “difficult" amid intense shelling and storming actions by
Russian troops.
Donetsk Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko said the shelling was intensifying and that Russian
forces appeared to be adding manpower: “We’re seeing a very tough battle in
which the Russians aren’t sparing neither themselves nor us.”
Moscow controls both main roads into the city, leaving one back route left – a
slender supply line, the BBC reports.
"They have been trying to take the city since July," Iryna Rybakova, press
officer for Ukraine's 93rd Brigade, told BBC. "Little by little they are winning
now. They have more resources, so if they play the long game they will win. I
can't say how long it will take.
"Maybe they will run out of resources. I really hope so."
Ukraine officials blast Italian ex-premier Berlusconi
Ukraine officials took Italian ex-prime minister Berlusconi to task Monday after
the ex-prime minister blamed Zelenskyy for the war. Belusconi, breaking with
current Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on the issue, said Russia would
not have invaded Ukraine if Zelenskyy “would have ceased attacking the two
autonomous republics of Donbass."Meloni’s office, which said her government
maintains "solid and unwavering" support for Ukraine. Kyiv officials were more
dramatic in their dissent.
"Berlusconi's senseless accusations against Zelenskyy are an attempt to kiss
Putin's hands, bloodied up to the elbows," Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Spokesman
Oleg Nikolenko said on Facebook. He accused Berlusconi, a Putin supporter, of
trying to "show his loyalty to the Russian dictator.".
*Contributing: The Associated Press
White House mocks Putin's mismanagement of the
war in Ukraine, saying he changes generals like 'socks'
John Haltiwanger/Business Insider/February 13, 2023
The White House mocked Putin's handling of the Ukraine war on Monday. NSC
spokesperson John Kirby said Putin changes generals like "I change socks."Russia
has already had several commanders in charge in Ukraine in less than a year of
fighting.
The White House mocked Russian President Vladimir Putin's handling of the war in
Ukraine on Monday, pointing to the frequent turnover among the generals placed
in charge of the ongoing invasion. "Clearly Mr. Putin is not making good
decisions," National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters.
"It's borne out by the fact that he continues to change generals the way I
change socks." The war in Ukraine has not yet lasted a full year, but there's
already a growing list of generals who've been tapped to spearhead Russian
operations before getting fired or demoted.
In April, Gen. Aleksandr Dvornikov was given the top job in Ukraine. Dvornikov
lasted until June, before being replaced by Gen. General Gennady Zhidko,who was
also only the top commander for a matter of months. Putin then tapped Gen.
Sergei Surovikin for the job in October, but he ultimately replaced him with
Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russia's highest-ranking military officer, in January.
"It's kind of like a reality TV show," Colin H. Kahl, the under secretary of
defense for policy, said to reporters last month while speaking on the shuffle
among Russian generals in Ukraine. "And I think it's more indicative that the
Russians have still not figured it out about how they intend to command the
fight, and I think the dysfunction among Russian commanders is pretty profound,"
he added. When the invasion began last February, Russia was initially expected
to easily defeat Ukrainian forces. But the war has been disastrous for Russia on
multiple levels. Though estimates vary, Russian forces are believed to have
suffered as many as 200,000 casualties so far, and they've made few gains in the
process. Russia has begun a new spring offensive in eastern Ukraine, NATO chief
Jens Stoltenberg said, but Kyiv's forces have been bracing for this fight. Putin
appears willing to continue throwing bodies at the front line — even if it means
sending them in poorly trained and ill-equipped — in hopes of eventually wearing
out Ukrainian forces. Putin is "sending thousands and thousands of more troops,
accepting a very high rate of casualty, taking big losses, but putting pressure
on the Ukrainians," Stoltenberg said, adding, "What Russia lacks in quality,
they try to compensate in quantity." The NATO chief went on to underscore that
Russia's willingness to endure high casualties is indicative of the need for the
West to supply weapons to Kyiv at a faster pace.
"The faster we can deliver weapons, ammunition, spare parts, fuel to the
Ukrainian front the more lives we save, and the better we support efforts to
find a peaceful, negotiated solution to this conflict," he said. NATO countries
have provided Ukraine with billions in military aid, including vital weapons,
since the war began. But some NATO allies have been reluctant to send more
advanced arms to Kyiv, such as long-range weapons that could potentially strike
deep into Russian territory, worrying about the potential for the conflict to
escalate. But there are also Western leaders and officials who say that Ukraine
should be provided with what it needs to win the fight, contending that there
would be reverberating consequences for the world if Putin was victorious.
Iran’s Raisi to Visit Beijing to Revive
‘Partnership’ with China
London, Beijing - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 February, 2023
China’s Foreign Ministry announced Sunday that Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi
will begin a three-day visit to China on Tuesday, at the invitation of President
Xi Jinping. Raisi’s trip to China comes after diplomatic tensions arising due to
a Gulf-Chinese statement made last December. The joint statement called on Iran
to refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, ensure
the peaceful nature of its nuclear program, and find a peaceful solution to the
disputed ownership of three islands in the Strait of Hormuz. Raisi’s visit,
however, will focus on strengthening economic cooperation with China. The state
news agency IRNA also reported that during the trip, "cooperation documents"
will be signed between the two countries, and Ebrahim Raisi will participate in
a joint meeting of Iranian and Chinese businesses. In turn, the Chinese Ministry
of Foreign Affairs confirmed in a statement that Raisi is scheduled to visit
from February 14-16, without disclosing further details. Raisi and Xi met for
the first time in September on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization summit in Uzbekistan, where the Iranian president called for
strengthening cooperation between the two countries. China had sent Vice Premier
Hu Chunhua for a major meeting in Tehran last December, which was seen at the
time as a sign that Beijing was distancing itself from the large-scale protests
in Iran. Unlike his previous visit in 2016, Xi did not stop in Iran during his
tour of the region last December. A joint statement between China and the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) countries drew condemnation from Tehran. The
Gulf-Chinese statement emphasized the need for relations between Arab Gulf
states and Iran to follow the principles of good neighborliness and
non-interference in internal affairs of others. It also promoted respect for the
independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of states, and resolving
disputes by peaceful means.
US-GCC meetings in Riyadh seek to counter
Iranian threats
Ray Hanania/Arab News/February 13, 2023
CHICAGO: A senior US delegation led by Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley is
participating in meetings in Riyadh this week focused on confronting the
increasing threats posed by Tehran in the region.
During a press briefing on Monday attended by Arab News, US Deputy Assistant
Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Dana Stroul laid out the network of
Iranian terror activity that is spreading worldwide and especially targeting
members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Stroul said the US-GCC meetings that began on Monday are focused on countering
Iran’s continued threats to Saudi Arabia, the wider Gulf, and American forces
stationed in Iraq and Syria to combat Daesh.
“Iranian aggression … is a serious concern,” she said, adding: “Increased
Iranian and Russian military cooperation … has serious implications for security
in the Middle East.”
Regarding threats faced by Saudi Arabia from the Houthis, she said the Yemeni
militia has not shown an interest in peace and has used the recent truce to
rearm with Iranian weapons.
“We’ve seen no change in Iranian willingness or activity to transfer weapons to
the Houthis,” Stroul added. “We haven’t seen the Houthis be good-faith actors in
extending the truce ... or take genuine movements toward a political process.”
She said the danger of Iran providing weapons to Russia is that Tehran can see
how they are used in Ukraine, make improvements, and apply them to their
violence against Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
Stroul added that US forces in Iraq and Syria “are under constant threat from
Iranian allied militia groups that seek to constantly harass our forces,” which
“undermines” their ability to combat Daesh.
“It also directly undermines, threatens and jeopardizes the recovery efforts of
those local communities who only a few years ago were under … caliphate rule
experiencing the worst depravities and atrocities. It’s truly destabilizing,”
she said. “We hold Iran accountable and responsible for these attacks because
Iran is arming, training, equipping and guiding these groups.”The US-GCC
meetings, which are scheduled to continue until Feb. 16 in Riyadh, are focused
on four areas of concern: air and missile defenses, maritime security, an Iran
Working Group focused on Tehran-sponsored violence, and a Terrorism Working
Group. American Gen. Bradley Cooper, who participated in the briefing, said US-GCC
cooperation has resulted in the confiscation of arms being shipped by Iran, much
of them to its allied militias in Yemen. “In just the last two months alone,
five major interventions at sea have resulted in US and partner maritime forces
seizing more than 5,000 weapons, 1.6 million rounds of ammunition, 7,000
proximity fuses for rockets, over 2,000 kg of propellant used for
rocket-propelled grenades, and $60 million in illegal drugs,” Cooper said.
“In 2021, we seized over $1 billion in illicit drugs and 15,000 illegal arms,
all headed toward Yemen.”The US is working this week with GCC partners to expand
the offshore monitoring region to protect those countries from Iranian
terrorism.
Thousands march in Israel as Benjamin
Netanyahu’s allies push overhaul
AP/February 13, 2023
JERUSALEM: Tens of thousands of Israelis — hoisting flags, blowing on horns and
chanting “democracy” and “no to dictatorship”— protested outside the parliament
building on Monday as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government formally
launched a contentious plan to overhaul the country’s legal system. It was the
largest protest outside the Knesset in years and reflected the deep divisions
over the plan. The proposed changes have triggered weeks of mass demonstrations,
drawn cries of protests from influential business leaders and former military
men and even prompted a statement of concern from President Joe Biden. Despite a
plea from the nation’s figurehead president to put the legislation on hold,
Netanyahu’s allies approved a series of legislative changes during a stormy
committee meeting Tuesday. The vote now sends the legislation to the full
parliament for a series of votes — an opening salvo in a battle expected to
stretch on for weeks. “They hear our cry. They hear the strong voice of truth,”
opposition leader Yair Lapid said from the stage outside parliament. “They hear
it and they’re afraid.”Netanyahu and his supporters say the proposed changes are
needed to rein in a judiciary that wields too much power. But his critics say
the judicial overhaul is tantamount to a coup and will destroy Israeli
democracy. They also say that Netanyahu, who is on trial for a series of
corruption charges, has a conflict of interest. The protesters came from across
the country. Organizers said that upwards of 100,000 people were in attendance.
Trainloads of people arrived in Jerusalem on packed trains, streaming up
escalators in the city’s main train station chanting, “democracy,” cheering and
whistling, and waving the national flag. A few hundred others gathered in
protest at Jerusalem’s Western Wall, the holiest site where Jews can pray,
before marching toward the Knesset. In parliament, opposition lawmakers vocally
protested the proposed reform to judge appointments ahead of a committee vote
that would send the bill to the full parliament for a vote. During an unruly
session, members of the opposition stood on the conference table and shouted as
a key Netanyahu ally tried to hold the vote. The motions passed in a 9-7
committee vote.
Throngs of people marched to the Knesset, the Israeli legislature, a day after
the country’s figurehead president urged Netanyahu’s government to delay its
proposed changes to the judiciary — moves that critics say will weaken the
country’s Supreme Court and erode democratic checks and balances.
Many protesters carried the blue and white Israeli flag and posters decrying
what they saw as attack on the country’s democratic institutions. “Shame!
Shame!” and “Israel will not be a dictatorship!” they chanted.
Other demonstrations were held outside schools around the country. Netanyahu and
his allies took office in December after the country’s fifth election in less
than four years. That election, like its predecessors, focused on Netanyahu’s
fitness for office at a time when he is facing serious criminal charges.
Netanyahu has lashed out at the country’s police, prosecutors and judges, saying
he is the victim of a deep-state style conspiracy to oust him. His critics say
he is motivated by a personal grudge and his campaign will destroy Israel’s
democratic system of checks and balances. The legislation approved in committee
Monday would give Netanyahu’s parliamentary majority the authority for
appointing all of the country’s judges — a step that critics say could pave the
way for his trial to be dismissed. A second change would take away the Supreme
Court’s authority to review the legality of major pieces of legislation, known
as Basic Laws. His coalition also plans on passing another law that would give
parliament the power to overturn Supreme Court decisions it dislikes. Taken
together, critics say this will destroy the country’s system of checks and
balances and unleash a process similar to those in authoritarian countries like
Poland and Hungary. Eliad Shraga, chairman of the Movement for Quality
Government, a civil-society group that organized Monday’s demonstration, said
the gathering was meant to send a message of support to the Supreme Court and a
warning to the Knesset. “We will fight to the end,” he told The Associated
Press. “They want to change Israel from a liberal democracy to a dictatorship, a
fascist dictatorship.”Late Sunday, President Isaac Herzog appealed to Netanyahu
to put the legislation on hold and open a dialogue with the opposition.
Netanyahu has not responded to the appeal.
Missiles linked to Iran by failure to erase
data from drone, MoD officials say
Sam Blewett/PA Media: UK News/Mon, February 13, 2023
A haul of missiles allegedly destined for Houthi rebels has been linked to Iran
by a failure to wipe the data from an accompanying drone packaged in a speed
boat which was seized by the Navy. The connection is detailed in a dossier of
evidence provided to the United Nations (UN) by Britain in an attempt to prove
Tehran is breaching its rules by supplying weapons to the war in Yemen. The
seizures from within international waters south of Iran early last year included
surface-to-air-missiles and engines for land attack cruise missiles.Britain
handed over its file to the UN as Iranian-made attack drones are used by Russia
to pummel Ukraine in Vladimir Putin’s invasion. Officials argue the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has gone to lengths to obscure the components’
origins, some of which are copies of Western weapons.Their quality was assessed
to be inferior to the legitimate products and there were clues in the form of
miscopied letters. A picture in the dossier shows one chipboard with what was
assessed to be errors: “version” spelt with a lower case l instead of an i and
“The Netherlands” spelled with a 1 instead of an l.One key piece of evidence
linking the missiles’ to Iran came from a reconnaissance drone found in the
February boat alongside surface to air missiles and land attack cruise missile
components.A Ministry of Defence official said: “Whilst the external SD card
slots on the DJI quadcopter were empty, the internal hard drive had not been
wiped.
“We found 22 test flights, all within the confines of the IRGC Aerospace Force
HQ in Tehran. “This is the first time we have been able to present evidence to
the UN that indicates a direct link between the Iranian state and the supply of
these weapons.”
Marines on the HMS Montrose detained the vessels crewed by smugglers identifying
themselves as Iranian on January 28 and February 25 last year. The downwash of a
Wildcat helicopter was used to force the crews of the high-speed boats onto the
deck so marines could board, according to the evidence passed to the UN. The
smugglers, who are also suspected of running drugs, were released back to their
vessels, after it was ascertained there was no grounds to detain them.
Officials believe some parts in the missiles are genuine and have been procured
from US, French, German, Dutch and Czech businesses. But the UN is expected to
speak to the manufacturers involved to warn them their components are apparently
ending up in Iranian weapons programmes.
A Saudi-led coalition has been fighting the Iran-backed Houthis since 2015, and
Tehran’s capabilities are believed to be ever improving. The UN report on
possible security council violations is expected to be published shortly.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “The UK is committed to upholding
international law and will continue to counter Iranian activity that contravenes
United Nation security council resolutions and threatens peace across the world.
“That is why we have a permanent Royal Navy deployment in the Gulf region,
conducting vital maritime security operations and working in support of an
enduring peace in Yemen.” Middle East minister Lord Ahmad added: “Once again the
Iranian regime has been exposed for its reckless proliferation of weapons and
destabilising activity in the region. “Iran’s sustained military support to the
Houthis and continued violation of the arms embargo has stoked further conflict
and undermined UN-led peace efforts.“The UK will continue to act to protect the
security of our partners and hold Iran to account.”
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on February 13-14/2023
Captagon: Assad’s Deadly Drug Of Choice Expands To Israel
Natalie Ecanow/1945 web site/February 13/2023
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/02/captagon-assads-deadly-drug-of-choice-expands-to-israel/
Israel’s Ministry of
Defense thwarted an attempt to smuggle thousands of captagon tablets into the
Gaza Strip last week. The news was overshadowed by soaring tensions, amidst
continued unrest in the West Bank and the firing of rockets out of the Hamas
controlled-Gaza Strip.
The pills, hidden inside a shipment of office refrigerators, were en route from
the West Bank when they were seized by Israeli security forces at the Tarqumiyah
border crossing. Israel’s exposure to the captagon trade can no longer be
ignored.
What is Captagon?
Captagon, known colloquially as the “poor man’s cocaine,” is an amphetamine-type
stimulant illicitly produced in the Levant. While it is primarily trafficked in
Jordan and the Gulf states, the captagon trade has started to spill beyond its
traditional borders. Captagon is slowly but surely evolving into a broader
regional problem that merits a coordinated intervention. The drug bust in Israel
this week validates this changing reality.
Originally, “Captagon” was the brand name for a legal drug containing
fenethylline and prescribed to treat conditions such as attention-deficit
hyperactivity disorder, narcolepsy, and depression. Fenethylline, however, was
made widely illegal in the 1980s, forcing captagon production underground. Since
then, counterfeit captagon production has proliferated; today’s highly addictive
pills bear little, if any, chemical resemblance to their predecessors.
Today, the captagon industry is concentrated in Syria and Lebanon, where civil
war, financial collapse, and the crippling effects of US and European sanctions
left Iranian proxies strapped for cash. In search of new revenue streams, the
Bashar al-Assad regime and Hezbollah resorted to captagon production and sales.
And it proved to be a financial boon.
Regional seizure data from 2021 valued the captagon trade at over $5.7 billion,
eclipsing the total value of Syria’s legal exports combined. The profits are
pumped straight into the coffers of Assad and his cronies, providing a financial
lifeline to an otherwise economically moribund regime. According to the former
US special envoy for Syria, “the Assad regime would not survive the loss of the
Captagon revenues.”
From its production centers in Syria and Lebanon, captagon is primarily
trafficked overland through Jordan onward to the Gulf, where Saudi Arabia is
widely considered to be the largest consumer market.
In Jordan, the growing scale and sophistication of overland smuggling operations
poses a serious security risk and may even portend a burgeoning public health
crisis. Last year, Jordanian officials intercepted over 54 million captagon
pills; by April, they had seized more pills than in all of 2021 combined. The
uptick in smuggling operations prompted Jordanian officials to institute a
“shoot-to-kill” policy along the Syrian border; one skirmish left 27 smugglers
dead.
Alarmingly, the consumer market for captagon in Jordan is expanding. “We used to
be a proud that Jordan was a transit country,’ lamented the Secretary General of
Jordan’s Economic and Social Council, “but now it is a host country.” Jordanian
youth are consuming the addictive pill, which fetches a lower price than
elsewhere in the Gulf. The decision to sell there appears to be a strategic one
on the part of Iran’s allies, given how much more the pill can fetch in the
Gulf, where high unemployment and swaths of disenchanted youth fuel demand.
The United States took legislative action in December when Congress passed the
Captagon Act, which requires the government to develop an inter-agency strategy
to “deny, degrade and dismantle” the Levantine captagon trade. Still, more can
be done.
As Assad, Hezbollah, and their Iranian benefactors fill their coffers with
captagon revenue, Jordan and the Gulf states are looking to bring the Syrian
regime back into the regional fold. In early January, the Emirati foreign
minister paid a visit to his Syrian counterpart in Damascus. The meeting came
less than a year after Mohamed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and de
facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates, became the first leader to host Assad
since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war. Jordan has also made overtures to
the Syrian regime, as evidenced by a phone call between King Abdullah and Assad
in October 2021.
A Mistake in Policy
Rather than normalizing with the region’s biggest drug pusher, Washington should
make clear that regional cooperation in countering narcotics is a better
approach. The administration can leverage the structures of the Abraham Accords
to develop a regional strategy for combatting the captagon trade and expand the
partnership between Israel and the Gulf. This could include establishing
processes for law enforcement to exchange information outside of INTERPOL, which
Syria rejoined in 2021. Jordan’s International Police Training Center can house
a multilateral interdiction center to help provide real-time information on
smuggling operations.
The shared threat of captagon also gives Israel and Jordan reason to jumpstart
their often cold and tenuous peace. And, as policymakers anticipate bringing
Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, Washington should remind the region that
Jerusalem and Riyadh both care deeply about the stability of Jordan, which the
Assad-linked narcotics trade threatens to undermine.
Finally, the Biden administration should take additional action to punish the
Assad regime for its role in the production and trafficking of captagon. The
White House excluded Syria from its list of major illicit drug producing
countries for 2023, and the State Department failed to account for captagon in
its congressionally mandated report on Bashar al-Assad’s wealth. The drug bust
in Israel is a wakeup call that Assad’s captagon tentacles are spreading their
reach. It’s time for the Biden administration to crack down.
*Natalie Ecanow is a research analyst at FDD focusing on Lebanon, Jordan, and
geopolitics of the Levant. Prior to joining FDD, she worked on Middle Eastern
affairs at the Hudson Institute and was a summer fellow with the Tikvah Fund.
Natalie holds a B.A. in political science with minors in Middle Eastern studies
and history from Duke University.
Is the two-state solution for Israel, Palestine dead?
Maybe. But what's the alternative?
Tracy Wilkinson/LA Times/February 13/2023
The intractable conflict between Israelis and Palestinians over land, rights and
safety has entered a new phase, one plumbing new depths of hatred and radical
intransigence that the U.S. government no longer seems in a position to resolve
or even mitigate.
Now, an increasing number of experts are sounding the death knell for the
two-state solution.
Dennis Ross, the former special envoy who has negotiated Middle East peace
issues for both Republican and Democratic presidential administrations, says
Israelis and Palestinians have reached “the lowest ebb” he has ever seen.
“There’s a complete loss of hope on both sides,” Ross recently told a television
interviewer.
Three of the administration’s most senior officials — Secretary of State Antony
J. Blinken, CIA Director William Burns and White House national security advisor
Jake Sullivan — made urgent trips to the region in recent days in a bid to
deescalate rising violence and find common ground on which to build peace. But
they came away unable to offer any reason to be less pessimistic than Ross.
They spoke of a “shrinking horizon” of possibility, bad governance on both sides
and the likelihood of major outbreaks of deadly fighting.
During Blinken's trip to the Middle East last month, the repeated mantra from
Israelis and Palestinians, and the left and right, was that the two-state
solution — the proposed creation of sovereign Palestinian and Israeli states
that for decades had consensus support internationally and locally — was dead.
Some in the new, far-right Israeli government — the most extreme and religiously
conservative in the nation's history — want to see the collapse of the
Palestinian Authority, expulsion of many Palestinians and confiscation of most
West Bank land, where the Palestinian state would have been created.
Many Palestinians see their government as weak and useless — President Mahmoud
Abbas has overstayed his term by a decade and refused to hold elections — and
have watched as Jewish settlers have expanded their occupation. The heavily
guarded settlements have effectively made the creation of a contiguous
Palestinian state impossible.
Meanwhile, Abbas has lost control over a northern swath of the West Bank,
including cities such as Jenin and Nablus, giving rise to armed militant groups,
which in turn has led to regular, deadly incursions by Israeli troops.
And yet the Biden administration, like most U.S. governments except for that led
by former President Trump, continues to promote the two-state solution as the
way to resolve the Middle East’s most stubborn and complex conflict.
"The United States is committed to working toward our enduring goal of ensuring
that the Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal measures of freedom, security,
opportunity, justice and dignity," Blinken said on his last day in the Middle
East after zipping through Cairo, Jerusalem and Ramallah in late January. "The
only way to achieve that goal is through preserving and then realizing the
vision of two states for two peoples."
U.S. officials “keep talking about their desire for a two-state solution, but
they do nothing to implement it,” said Diana Buttu, a Palestinian attorney who
once advised the Palestinian Authority. Implementation, she said, would have to
include blocking settlement expansion along with the confiscations, demolitions,
and evictions of Palestinians by Israel that have become routine.
“It is a fantasy,” Buttu said from her home in Haifa, Israel. “ ‘It will happen,
it will happen,’ they say. In reality, it is as dead as a dodo bird.”
Martin Indyk, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel and Middle East special envoy,
said the administration cannot declare the two-state solution dead because there
is no viable alternative.
One oft-mentioned option is a single state of Israelis and Palestinians with
equal rights. Some polling of Palestinians has shown growing support for the
arrangement.
But the prospects for that happening are perhaps even dimmer than for the
two-state solution. What would such a state be called? Who would be in charge of
security?
It would be neither Israeli nor Palestinian and wouldn't satisfy the nationalist
aspirations of either side. And because of higher birth rates among
Palestinians, Israeli Jews might be a minority in such a state.
"Once you have equal rights, it's not a Jewish state anymore," said Indyk, now a
fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "What Israeli prime minister is
going to hand the keys over to the Palestinians?
"Neither side is ready for the other side to rule."
A new poll of Israelis and Palestinians released last month found what the
pollsters called disturbing trends of intolerance and hatred exacerbated by
separation, collapsed diplomacy and dehumanization, with each side less willing
to recognize the other.
The survey was conducted by Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center
for Policy and Survey Research, and Dahlia Scheindlin, a fellow at the Tel
Aviv-based Century International, a liberal think tank, and sponsored in part by
the U.S. Institute for Peace. They focused on surveying a younger-than-usual
cohort, Israelis and Palestinians aged 15 and older. The median age in Israel is
30, and is 21 in the Palestinian territories.
The poll showed support at an all-time low for the two-state solution: 20% among
Israeli Jews aged 18-34 and around 30% for Palestinians in the same age group.
The survey also found that, for the first time, support in Israel for a
nondemocratic regime — unequal rights between Israelis and Palestinians — is
stronger than that for a two-state solution.
According to the poll, a majority on each side rejects the other's historical
connection to the land and believes that violence is the only way to resolve the
conflict.
"It's become a zero-sum game that has left room only for people with maximalist
positions, extremists on both sides," said Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, director of
the United States Institute of Peace’s program for Israel and the Palestinian
territories.
The new Israeli government is led by returning Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu, who formed a coalition with some of the country's most radical,
anti-Arab parties that were once taboo in Israeli politics. The Cabinet, which
is predominantly male with several ultra-Orthodox officials, includes supporters
of Meir Kahane, a radical rabbi branded a terrorist by the United States who was
assassinated in 1990.
The Biden administration is hoping Netanyahu will curb some of his colleagues'
more radical, precedent-breaking tendencies as he tries to further Israel's
acceptance in the region among Arab and Gulf states. Seizing more
Palestinian-claimed land or excessive repression would jeopardize such efforts.
"I've got my two hands on the steering wheel," Netanyahu has told foreign media
on several occasions, insisting he, not his allies, will call the shots.
But Netanyahu also needs his Cabinet to support fundamental changes to the
judiciary that could dash his own trial on corruption charges. He has denied
that his challenge to the court system is self-motivated.
On the Palestinian side, youth militias have sprung up that carry out attacks,
particularly on settlers, and Abbas is said to be reluctant to crack down on
them.
The Palestinian Authority has also pursued an international campaign, attempting
to carry its grievances to forums including the International Criminal Court to
obtain judgments against Israel. The moves have infuriated Israel, and have also
been condemned by the U.S.
In his trip to the region, Blinken subtly chided both Netanyahu and Abbas for
straying from democracy, urging that free expression, civil rights and "values"
be respected in their respective countries.
At the same time, however, the Biden administration would like to keep the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict off the top of its to-do list, preferring to focus
on China and Ukraine. U.S. officials acknowledge the dynamic in the Middle East
is too volatile and the diplomatic distances too great to make progress. And
Blinken and other senior U.S. officials have repeatedly told Israelis and
Palestinians that it is incumbent on them to resolve their own problems.
"You need leadership in three places, and you don’t have it," said Daniel
Kurtzer, who has served as U.S. ambassador to Israel and Egypt. "Israel thinks
it can destroy the Palestinians’ violence infrastructure. The Palestinians think
they can stop Israeli settlement and confiscation of land. Both have failed.
There is no political outcome — just killing."
When CIA director Burns returned from his trip to the Middle East, he gave a
troubling assessment to a group of foreign service students at Georgetown
University.
He warned of "even greater fragility, even greater violence" between Israelis
and Palestinians, saying conditions resembled the eve of the second intifada.
The Palestinian uprising that began in the year 2000 left nearly 5,000 people
dead and is widely regarded as the end of the peace process.
Europe's Proxy War against Israel....How The EU Ignores
Hamas' Crimes
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/February 13, 2023
What is even more painful and humiliating for the Palestinians, is that EU
officials who regularly visit the Gaza Strip intentionally ignore the suffering
of the Palestinians living under Hamas.
On February 2, fifteen EU Heads of Mission visited the Gaza Strip without saying
a single word about any of the victims of Hamas's crimes and human rights
violations.
Notably, the EU did not state that it is Hamas, whose wealthy leaders live
comfortable lives in Qatar, Turkey and other countries, that is mainly
responsible for the bad "humanitarian situation" in the Gaza Strip.
Instead of working to strengthen the economy after it violently seized the Gaza
Strip in 2007, Hamas has since been investing the millions of dollars it
receives in building tunnels, and manufacturing and smuggling weapons to attack
Israel.
Hamas, in addition to its disproportionately large military budget, also diverts
aid money from Europe and the US to fund its military ventures.
When Hamas threatens that Israel will "pay the price," the Iranian-backed group
is actually saying it will continue to murder Jews for daring to enforce the law
against those who violate the law.
The EU show of solidarity with the residents of Khan al-Ahmar not only emboldens
Hamas, it also incentivizes Palestinians to pursue their illegal attempts to
seize territory that, in the Oslo Accords, they had agreed did not belong to
them, as well as to continue launching terrorist attacks against Israel.
Recently, a confidential document composed by the EU mission in east Jerusalem
revealed that Brussels is actively working with the Palestinians to take over
all of Area C by building scores of other illegal "facts on the ground." By
doing so, the EU has disqualified itself from playing the role of an honest
broker in any future peace process between the Palestinians and Israel.
What right does any European official have to tell Israel that it is not
permitted to enforce the law against illegal squatters? Would any European
official tolerate it if, for example, an Israeli government official told the
authorities in Paris or Madrid that they are not entitled to take action against
those who break the law in their cities?
The actions of the EU finally expose its deep hostility toward Israel in
Europe's proxy war against the Jewish state, as well as its undisguised bias in
favor of the Palestinians.
By obsessing about Israel and ignoring the crimes of Hamas in the Gaza Strip,
the EU is doing a massive disservice to the two million Palestinians living
there. The EU's actions always seem more about hating Israel than helping the
Palestinians.
If the Europeans truly cared at all about the Palestinians, they would raise the
roof about the crimes committed by Hamas against the residents of the Gaza
Strip. And they would be calling out their cohorts in the Palestinian Authority
for abusive governance, corruption, embezzlement of public funds, and especially
the Palestinian crackdown on human rights activists and journalists, who are
trying to tell the EU, the international community and the so-called human
rights groups about the brutal conditions under which their leaders keep forcing
them to live.
By obsessing about Israel and ignoring the crimes of Hamas in the Gaza Strip,
the EU is doing a massive disservice to the two million Palestinians living
there. The EU's actions always seem more about hating Israel than helping the
Palestinians. Pictured: Head of the European Union's mission to the West Bank
and Gaza Strip Sven Kuhn von Burgsdorff (R) visits the illegally-built
Palestinian community of Khan al-Ahmar near Jerusalem, on January 30, 2023.
(Photo by Ahmad Gharabli/AFP via Getty Images)
On January 30, representatives of the European Union and several other
countries, including Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, Ireland, Spain and Sweden,
visited the Palestinian community of Khan al-Ahmar in the West Bank "to express
their concern at the threat of demolition facing the village."
Khan al-Ahmar, home to 38 Palestinian families, was illegally built more than a
decade ago as part of the Palestinian Authority's plan to illegally seize land
near Jordan in Area C of the West Bank, which is exclusively controlled by
Israel in accordance with the Oslo Accords signed between the Palestinians and
the Israeli government.
A few days before the EU officials and diplomats visited the village, the
Palestinian terror group Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, demolished dozens of
houses on the other side of Israel, near Egypt, in the Gaza Strip, as part of a
plan to expand a coastal highway. Some of the homeowners expressed outrage over
the Hamas demolitions. One of them described the them as a new catastrophe and a
death sentence for scores of families. Another Palestinian denounced the
demolitions as a "crime" and said they were "carried out by Hamas under the
threat of arms."
The EU officials and other foreign diplomats -- who had come to the Middle East
to express solidarity with the residents of the illegal village in the West Bank
-- did even bother to comment at all on the demolition of the homes Hamas had
destroyed. Without question, they would have heard of the demolitions from
Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip or through the Palestinian media, but the
foreign officials chose to ignore the "new catastrophe" and "crime." Why? Their
hatred for Israel permits them to give Hamas a pass for the atrocities they
commit against their own people, the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, but then to
accuse the Israelis of defending what is rightfully theirs.
The plight of the families in the Gaza Strip, like other human rights violations
committed by Hamas, are being ignored not only by the EU, but the international
community as well. Unfortunately for these families, the bulldozers that
destroyed their homes belong to Hamas, not Israel.
One can only imagine the uproar in the international community had Israel sent
bulldozers to raze dozens of homes in the Gaza Strip. If those homes been
demolished by Israel and not by Hamas, the same EU officials who visited Khan
al-Ahmar would have rushed to the Gaza Strip to meet with the distraught
families. What is even more painful and humiliating for the Palestinians, is
that EU officials who regularly visit the Gaza Strip intentionally ignore the
suffering of the Palestinians living under Hamas.
On February 2, fifteen EU Heads of Mission visited the Gaza Strip without saying
a single word about any of the victims of Hamas's crimes and human rights
violations.
After the tour, the EU said in a statement:
"Gaza remains a priority for the EU and its Member States. The humanitarian
situation is of great concern. It is high time to end the closure of the Strip
and achieve Palestinian reconciliation."
Notably, the EU did not state that it is Hamas, whose wealthy leaders live
comfortable lives in Qatar, Turkey and other countries, that is mainly
responsible for the bad "humanitarian situation" in the Gaza Strip.
Instead of working to strengthen the economy after it violently seized the Gaza
Strip in 2007, Hamas has since been investing the millions of dollars it
receives in building tunnels, and manufacturing and smuggling weapons to attack
Israel. As if that were not enough, two years ago Hamas imposed a slew of new
taxes on imported goods, sparking rare protests by many Palestinians.
Hamas allocates 55% of its budget to fund its military needs, but the share of
the budget for restoring the Gaza Strip is less than 5%.
Hamas, in addition to its disproportionately large military budget, also diverts
aid money from Europe and the US to fund its military ventures.
As the EU officials were voicing support for the illegal village of Khan al-Ahmar
in the West Bank, residents of the town of Bet Lahiya, also on the other side of
Israel in the Gaza Strip, were protesting the theft of their lands by Hamas.
According to the residents, Hamas was illegally transferring large parts of land
that belonged to them, the residents, to Hamas loyalists without telling anyone.
A statement issued by the residents said that they are determined to thwart the
Hamas "conspiracy."
This is the same Hamas that warned the EU delegation to insist on Israel
permitting the Arabs illegally occupying Khan al-Ahmar not to evacuate it.
Israel, by the way, had even built a new town not far away from Khan al-Ahmar,
for these Arabs to move to and that would allow them "to maintain the same
texture of life," but the Arabs would have none of it. "The aggression on Khan
al-Ahmar is rejected and [Israel] will pay the price, sooner or later," said
Hamas spokesperson Mohammed Hamadeh.
When Hamas threatens that Israel will "pay the price," the Iranian-backed group
is actually saying it will continue to murder Jews for daring to enforce the law
against those who violate the law by illegally seizing land and building houses
without permits, as in Khan al-Ahmar.
The EU show of solidarity with the residents of Khan al-Ahmar not only emboldens
Hamas, it also incentivizes Palestinians to pursue their illegal attempts to
seize territory that, in the Oslo Accords, they had agreed did not belong to
them, as well as to continue launching terrorist attacks against Israel.
What right does any European official have to tell Israel that it is not
permitted to enforce the law against illegal squatters? Would any European
official tolerate it if, for example, an Israeli government official told the
authorities in Paris or Madrid that they are not entitled to take action against
those who break the law in their cities?
The Europeans are further encouraging the Palestinians to violate the law by
illegally building in violation of the Oslo Accords. Recently, a confidential
document composed by the EU mission in east Jerusalem revealed that Brussels is
actively working with the Palestinians to take over all of Area C by building
scores of other illegal "facts on the ground." By doing so, the EU has
disqualified itself from playing the role of an honest broker in any future
peace process between the Palestinians and Israel.
The actions of the EU expose its deep hostility toward Israel in Europe's proxy
war against the Jewish state, as well as its undisguised bias in favor of the
Palestinians.
By obsessing about Israel and ignoring the crimes of Hamas in the Gaza Strip,
the EU is doing a massive disservice to the two million Palestinians living
there. The EU's actions always seem more about hating Israel than helping the
Palestinians.
If the Europeans truly cared at all about the Palestinians, they would raise the
roof about the crimes committed by Hamas against the residents of the Gaza
Strip. And they would be calling out their cohorts in the Palestinian Authority
for abusive governance, corruption, embezzlement of public funds, and especially
the Palestinian crackdown on human rights activists and journalists, who are
trying to tell the EU, the international community and the so-called human
rights groups about the brutal conditions under which their leaders keep forcing
them to live.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Apocalyptic quake exploited for cheap propaganda
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/February 13, 2023
Only someone responsible for the killing and displacement of millions of his own
citizens would see an earthquake that has claimed tens-of-thousands of lives as
an opportunity for a public-relations blitz.
After years hiding away in his palaces, Assad has been out visiting Latakiya and
Aleppo. Syrian diplomats are meanwhile insisting that all aid be diverted via
Damascus. Yet we have witnessed this scam repeatedly; with aid channeled to
pro-regime demographics, while pro-opposition populations are starved and bombed
into submission. The regime’s first action after the earthquake was to bomb the
stricken region of Marea — as if to ensure there were no survivors. Assad
officials say that they will block any aid going to “terrorist groups” — the
language the regime habitually uses for those in rebel-held areas. There are
already anecdotal reports of aid being stolen and resold by this criminal
regime.
Lebanese clients of Syria and Iran have meanwhile been staging pilgrimages to
Damascus in support of efforts to normalize Assad. How was Lebanese Foreign
Minister Abdullah Bou Habib allowed to embark on a disgraceful visit to Damascus
when what was required was a show of solidarity with the victims?
Statements from Hezbollah — which controls substantial areas of Syrian territory
— also exploited the quake to condemn “hypocrisy” for the world’s principled
refusal to engage with the blood-soaked Assad regime. “It would be quite ironic,
if not even counterproductive, for us to reach out to a government that has
brutalized its people . . . gassing them, slaughtering them, being responsible
for much of the suffering that they have endured,” a US State Department
spokesperson said — and for once, I find myself agreeing with US diplomats.
While aid is belatedly entering northern Syria via the single, badly damaged Bab
Al-Hawa crossing route, Russia and China have repeatedly vetoed opening other
crossings. With so many Syrian refugees having previously fled to
quake-epicenter areas of southern Turkiye, we now see lorryloads of body-bags
returning toward Syria, repatriating these poor souls.
The earthquake returns Syria to the top of the global agenda, while serving as a
reminder of Assad’s fundamental inhumanity.
Assad has denied Netanyahu’s claim that Damascus asked Israel for help, with
both sides exploiting the quake for propaganda. There are meanwhile concerns
that Iran will capitalize on the US temporary alleviation of sanctions to use
aid convoys for transporting arms and other contraband goods.
In a related context, I had a conversation last week with several senior
European Middle East diplomats who sketched out various scenarios for electing a
Lebanese president and containing Iran.
They noted that Hezbollah was coming under increasing pressure as its grassroots
support weakened, the broader population became awakened to the threats it
poses, and the group’s alliance with the FPM’s Michel Aoun and Gibran Bassil
became ever-more fragile. They expressed hope for a scenario where Hezbollah had
no option but to sign onto a consensus candidate (who in any case the group
would seek to bend to their will), allowing Lebanon to advance toward an IMF
deal.
However, they also sketched out a scenario without consensus on a president or a
government, in which the country descended into anarchy. They noted that with
the cessation of nuclear negotiations, it could be a matter of time before
Netanyahu took military action to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program. Hezbollah
may not be in a position to refuse embarking on a war with Israel at Tehran’s
behest, which would quickly become regionalized and highly destructive.
While many Lebanese Shiites still see Hezbollah as their nominal representative,
they don’t buy into the hard-line anti-national elements of its agenda. They are
also sick of poverty and the degradation of the country’s situation, and they
experienced more than enough of the 2006 conflict to embrace Hezbollah’s
readiness to take on the “Zionist enemy” again.
People who regularly engage with Lebanese leadership figures remark on their
complete disregard for the suffering of ordinary Lebanese and their reluctance
to be drawn into conversations on such themes, while obsessing over regional
rivalries and forcibly repatriating Syrian refugees. The earthquake, the 2020
port explosion, IMF negotiations and the presidential standoff consequently
become negotiating cards to exploit in a broader jostling for position.
Decisions currently being taken, or indefinitely postponed, impact the lives of
millions and will ultimately influence whether or not the region teeters into
renewed conflict.
My Western interlocutors noted that the increased animosity toward Tehran was
ironically more due to its arming of Moscow, rather than its continuing crimes
in the region. They also noted that increased vigilance along national borders
had reined in Hezbollah and Assad’s ambitions of fulling their coffers by
dominating the narcotics trade, particularly with little prospect of their
Iranian benefactors reaping windfalls from sanctions relief following a nuclear
deal. After months of protests, this is a period of exceptional weakness for
Iran, and hence also its proxies.
Hezbollah’s tanking of the economy means that within Lebanon itself there is
“nothing left to steal,” hence Hassan Nasrallah’s uncustomary flexibility on
lucrative issues of borders and gas exploitation, as he perceives the
opportunity for profit.
Assad will never be fully rehabilitated: His tenuous grip on a portion of Syria
is only thanks to a fateful alliance with Iran, Russia and Hezbollah. The
families of millions of people whose lives he destroyed will never forget. In
the context of growing global animosity toward Moscow and Tehran, as Iran-made
drones are used in new onslaughts against Ukraine, Assad is likely to remain
permanently frozen out from the international community.
The earthquake temporarily returns Syria to the top of the global agenda, while
serving as a reminder of Assad’s fundamental inhumanity. He and his Lebanese and
Iranian allies can spin for all they are worth, but the passing of time does not
render Assad any less of a war criminal.
Syrians impacted by the earthquake are no less deserving of global support than
the tragic victims in Turkiye. It is not their fault that the world abandoned
this conflict and left Syria frozen as a handful of dysfunctional cantons.
The onus therefore lies heavily on the international community to atone for its
accumulated failings of the Syrian people, and move heaven and earth to heed
their cries in their latest hour of need.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.
Macron seeks allies from among those who would replace him
Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/February 13, 2023
In an EU where working hours can peak at 48 hours a week and commonly average
40, France’s 35-hour working week is a very comfortable arrangement. However,
even the prospect of a growing budget deficit and unsustainable public spending
has not discouraged France’s workers from robustly opposing urgent reforms to
their sacred (and similarly generous) pension system.
A fortnight of strike action and the raucous collapse of a debate at the
National Assembly are where French President Emmanuel Macron’s ambitious reforms
to the pension system currently stand. Without political support from unlikely
allies, the president’s reforms, and indeed his prime minister’s government,
will falter as the economy lurches forward meeting the demands of increasingly
burdensome retirees, numbering around 15 million.
Contrary to the expected strike fatigue, public opinion is a staggering 69
percent against reforms. A day after France’s National Assembly started to
debate an overhaul of pensions, workers walked off the job and took to the
streets in nationwide strikes. The fourth time such major demonstrations have
taken place since the new year, people are angered at the prospect of raising
the retirement age from 62 to 64 and separately increasing the number of years
that people must make contributions to receive a full state pension.
The president has said that this “balancing of the system” is urgent as the
current age is dragging on public finances. His chief opponents, France’s
vigorous left, spear-headed by its restive unions, have called the reforms
“dangerous for democracy.” The reforms not having not waned, French unions and
major political figures protested in their hundreds and thousands on Saturday
(Feb. 11). Though the Interior Ministry and the government have been keen to
highlight that the weekend protests in place of further strikes show decreased
resolve, in reality they were planned by the unions to allow a larger section of
the population who cannot usually join weekday strike action to attend. With as
many attendees as the first three days of action, this weekend’s disruption on
the streets is likely to be replicated in parliament where the government lacks
the numbers to proceed.
Macron’s government is facing a harsh political battle in parliament that could
last weeks or months. France’s pensions — widely considered to take up to a
staggering 13.64 percent of gross domestic product in a country that already has
the largest government expenditures in the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development — are unsustainable. As a reform-minded president,
the proposed changes are an opportunity to get his agenda back on track.
However, as the lower house began debating the reforms, it is clear that Macron
is risking his presidency with a highly unpopular campaign pledge that his
public accounts minister is calling a stark choice between “reform or
bankruptcy.”
Without political support from unlikely allies, the president’s reforms, and
indeed his prime minister’s government, will falter.
Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has yet to assemble the necessary support to give
her a majority to pass the draft law. Not only was the debate suspended as the
labor minister was shouted down, more than 20,000 amendments have been proposed
by opposition lawmakers to stall proceedings. With the president’s centrist
alliance only holding 250 seats, Borne needs to win over opposition politicians,
or convince them to abstain, to reach the necessary 289 votes. If she cannot
assemble the votes, she can use the government’s emergency power under Article
49.3 to impose legislation without a vote, though it is highly unlikely she
would, given that pension reform is such a sensitive subject.
The most likely quarter to come to the government’s aid is France’s erstwhile
party of government, Les Republicains. A shadow of its former electoral self,
the party is split between two factions, each looking to outdo the other in
their representation of middle- and low-income voters who they have lost to the
far left and right in recent elections. One group has all but signed up to the
reforms, albeit that Borne agree to some changes, another rebel faction is
seeking changes that would protect those who started working at younger ages.
Their leader, MP Aurelien Pradie, has been intransigent on the issue, saying “if
they do not accept our amendment without changing a single comma, they will not
get the votes they need.”
The very public struggle of Macron’s party to hold the centrist coalition
together is intentional. The presidential ambitions of his allies and opponents
are superseding his reform agenda as they jockey to replace him in 2027.
Nevertheless, Macron has too much riding on pension reform to abandon it quietly
— though should he succeed, his reforms will only serve to embolden the
extremists of French politics who have grown in importance in recent years. The
reforms will not be seen as a crucial 18 billion euros ($19.5 billion) in annual
savings for the French treasury but rather the work of a small elite that
compromises the circumstances of the working many.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients
between London and the GCC.
Twitter: @Moulay_Zaid
More weapons, less refugees: Is Israel a neutral party in the Russia-Ukraine
war?
Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/February 13, 2023
For a whole year, Israel has struggled in its attempts to articulate a clear and
decisive position regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. The reason behind the
seemingly confused Israeli position is that it stands to lose, regardless of the
outcome. But is Israel a neutral party?
Israel is home to a population of almost one million Russian-speaking citizens,
one-third of them arriving from Ukraine shortly before and immediately following
the collapse of the Soviet Union. Those Israelis, with deep cultural and
linguistic roots in their actual motherland, are a critical constituency in
Israel’s polarized political scene. After years of marginalization following
their initial arrival in Israel, mostly in the 1990s, they managed to formulate
their own parties and, eventually, exert direct influence on Israeli politics.
Russian-speaking ultranationalist leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu, Avigdor
Lieberman, is a direct outcome of the growing clout of this constituency.
While some Israeli leaders understood that Moscow holds many important cards,
whether in Russia itself or in the Middle East, others were more concerned about
the influence of Russian, Ukrainian and Moldovan Jews in Israel itself. Soon
after the start of the war, then-Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid stated a
position that took many Israelis, and, of course, Russia by surprise. “The
Russian attack on Ukraine is a serious violation of the international order.
Israel condemns this attack,” Lapid said.
The irony in Lapid’s words is too palpable for much elaboration, except that
Israel has violated more UN resolutions than any other country in the world. Its
military occupation of Palestine is also considered the longest in modern
history. But Lapid was not concerned about “international order.” His target
audience consisted of Israelis — about 76 percent of them were against Russia
and in favor of Ukraine — and Washington, which dictated to all of its allies
that half positions on the matter are unacceptable.
US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland warned Israel
plainly in March that it must have a clear position on the issue, and “join the
financial sanctions” against Russia if “you (meaning Tel Aviv) don’t want to
become the last haven for dirty money.”
As Russia and Iran heightened their military cooperation, Israel felt justified
in becoming more involved.
As millions of Ukrainians escaped their country, thousands landed in Israel.
Initially, the news was welcomed in Tel Aviv, which has been worried about the
alarming phenomenon of “yordim,” or reverse immigration out of the country.
Since many of the Ukrainian refugees were not Jews, this created a dilemma for
the Israeli government. The Times of Israel reported on March 10 that “footage
aired by Channel 12 news showed large numbers of people inside one of the
airport’s terminals, with young children sleeping on the floor and on a baggage
carousel, as well as an elderly woman being treated after apparently fainting.”
In January, the Israeli Aliyah and Integration Ministry decided to suspend the
special grants for Ukrainian refugees.
Meanwhile, Israel’s political position seemed conflicted. Whereas Lapid remained
committed to his anti-Russian stance, then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett
maintained a more conciliatory tone, flying to Moscow on March 5 to consult with
Russian President Vladimir Putin, purportedly at the request of Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky. Later on, Bennett alleged that Zelensky had asked
him to obtain a promise from Putin not to assassinate him. Though the claim,
made several months after the meeting, was vehemently rejected by Kyiv, it
illustrates the incoherence of Israel’s foreign policy throughout the conflict.
During the early phase of the war, Israel wanted to participate as the mediator,
repeatedly offering to host talks between Russia and Ukraine in Jerusalem.
Hence, it wanted to communicate several messages: To illustrate Israel’s ability
to be a significant player in world affairs; to assure Moscow that Tel Aviv
remains a neutral party; to justify to Washington why, as a major US ally, it
remains passive in its lack of direct support to Kyiv and, also, to score a
political point, against Palestinians and the international community, that
Occupied Jerusalem is the center of Israel’s political life.
The Israeli gambit failed, and it was Turkiye, not Israel, that was chosen by
both parties for this role.
In April, videos began emerging on social media of Israelis fighting alongside
Ukrainian forces. Though no official confirmation from Tel Aviv followed, the
recurring event signaled that a shift was underway in the Israeli position. This
position evolved over the course of months to finally lead to a major shift
when, in November, Israel reportedly granted NATO members permission to supply
Ukraine with weapons that contained Israeli technology.
Moreover, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that Israel has agreed to
purchase millions of dollars’ worth of “strategic materials” for Ukrainian
military operations. Therefore, Israel had practically ended its neutrality in
the war.
Moscow, ever vigilant about Israel’s precarious position, sent messages of its
own to Tel Aviv. In July, Russian officials said that Moscow was planning to
shut down the Russian branch of the Jewish Agency for Israel, the main body
responsible for facilitating Jewish immigration to Israel and Occupied
Palestine.
Netanyahu’s return to the office of prime minister in December was meant to
represent a shift back to neutrality. However, the rightwing Israeli leader
pledged during interviews with CNN and French LCI channel on Feb. 1 and Feb. 5
respectively, that he would be “studying this question (of supplying Ukraine
with the Iron Dome Defense System) according to our national interest.” Again,
the Russians warned that Russia “will consider (Israeli weapons) to be
legitimate targets for Russia’s armed forces.”
As Russia and Iran heightened their military cooperation, Israel felt justified
in becoming more involved. In December, Voice of America reported on the
exponential growth in Israel’s arms sales, partly due to a deal with the US
Lockheed Martin Cooperation, one of the major US weapon suppliers to Ukraine.
The following month, the French newspaper Le Monde reported that “Israel is
cautiously opening its arsenal in response to Kyiv’s pressing demands.”
The future will further reveal Tel Aviv’s role in the Russian-Ukraine war.
However, what is quite clear for now is that Israel is no longer a neutral
party, even if Tel Aviv continues to repeat such claims.
*Ramzy Baroud has been writing about the Middle East for more than 20 years. He
is an internationally syndicated columnist, a media consultant, an author of
several books, and the founder of PalestineChronicle.com. Twitter: @RamzyBaroud
War Propaganda And Ideology At The Edge Of Oblivion
Amb. Alberto M. Fernandez*/ MEMRI Daily Brief No. 455/February 13, 2023|
Within the coming days the cruel Russia-Ukraine War will enter its second year.
Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 has triggered a series of
global consequences not yet fully understood.[1] Despite intense scrutiny and
speculation, no one really knows how it will turn out.[2] One hopes and prays
that it will not lead to a nuclear exchange but even that dire eventuality
cannot be discounted. Both Russia and Ukraine are supposedly preparing new
armies aimed to deliver a knockout blow, both place hope in new weapons, both
are desperately looking for more men, both have freed convicts to fight and you
can find videos of forced conscription on both sides. Atrocities abound. Both
sides search for allies and sources of support worldwide, no matter how
marginal.
And aside from the two belligerents, other powers are heavily involved. The war
has brought Russia even closer to China and Iran than it already was (these
close relations were already there before the war). Meanwhile, NATO and
especially the United States – at least the ruling elites – have taken up the
cause of Ukraine with a passion not seen since the days after 9/11. Naturally,
it is also in Ukraine's interest to involve NATO even more forcefully into the
conflict, without limits or redlines, and the inertia toward that direction
seems slow but inexorable. It is hard to believe that it was only seven years
ago that an American President, Barack Obama, was described as believing that
"Ukraine is a core Russian interest but not an American one, so Russia will
always be able to maintain escalatory dominance there."[3] No one in the Biden
Administration seems to believe this, at least publicly.
My own interests in this conflict are more narrowly limited to the issues of
propaganda and ideology, topics I have both studied and worked on in government
and out of it for many years. The focus is less on morality, who is just or
unjust, or who will win but rather on the war of narratives and beliefs,
including as expressed beyond the borders of the two immediate belligerents.
As the underdog and the victim of a Russian invasion, Ukraine has naturally
benefited from considerable worldwide sympathy, particularly in the West.
Ukrainian propaganda has been relentless and quite successful but like Western
messaging about the conflict, it is less about the actual quality of the
messaging than pushing against an open door, the Russians were already regarded
as great villains in the West even before they invaded. War propaganda is much
easier when it occurs among populations already conditioned (sometimes for very
good reasons) to believe it. Before sympathetic audiences, Russian losses are
played up and Ukrainian losses are played down, stories that seem almost too
good to be true, usually are.[4] In the West, Ukraine became more than a
terrible war or a tragedy, it became "the latest thing."
American and pro-Ukraine messaging has been somewhat less successful in regions
such as Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and parts of Asia. The reasons
seem obvious. In all of those regions, there is a built-in disposition in some
quarters against Western messaging because there are many, both historic and
recent, of what are viewed as examples of Western imperialism, invasion, and
hegemony. Just as it does not take much to convince a Pole about Russian evil
intentions, it does not take much for an Arab to be skeptical about anything the
Americans are promoting when it comes to war, invasion, and international law.
American pro-Ukraine messaging seems more successful when it sticks to basic
issues – Russia attacked Ukraine and seeks to annex its territory across an
internationally recognized border – rather than sweeping pious intonations about
the liberal democratic order or human rights or whatever fashionable enthusiasm
is sweeping the Acela Corridor and the Eurocrats in Brussels.[5] The latter
resonate in that part of the world already dominated by the United States and
its closest allies but not everywhere. Soberly labeling actual
Russian-controlled or leaning sources as such, without exaggeration, works
better than moral hyperventilating.
As far as Russian propaganda, that oft-cited bogeyman of American elites, it has
been shown to be as overrated in its effectiveness as the Russian Army on the
battlefield. Indeed, looking at the past decade, never has so much (in Western
efforts both in the public and private spheres) been spent over so little.
Russia's propaganda successes are mostly either because of the previously cited
complicated past of the West itself in certain regions of the world or because
of self-inflicted wounds by Western propagandists.
When a U.S. official claimed that Ukrainian missiles falling in Poland were
actually Russian or when the destruction of Russia's Nord Stream pipeline is
spun as actually having been done by the Kremlin, it is Western credibility that
is "devalued" by the West itself.[6]
Moscow's biggest propaganda success in recent years was not done by Moscow at
all but by the American national security state and then by elite opinion,
supposedly in trying to counter the Russians. The cure has been deadlier than
the disease and it is the West, through overuse and misuse, that has fatally
damaged the term "disinformation." First in the campaign against the legitimacy
of the 2016 election results and throughout Donald Trump's presidency, then in
the rise of unhinged "woke" advocacy against American society, history, and
institutions, then in the campaign by the intelligence community against
supposed Russian disinformation on American social media in the 2020 elections,
it is America that, in a way undreamed of by the Russian Internet Research
Agency, has waged a devastating campaign against itself. The discrediting of
institutions, the levels of polarization and chaos achieved, dwarf anything
Moscow has ever done. It is also no surprise then when Russia or China or Iran
mirror and amplify narratives and tropes – left and right – that originated
domestically by Americans using them against the United States. The internal
damage from our own turmoil and from our ham-fisted response to Kremlin
propaganda will likely be more consequential in the long run to America's
destiny than whatever happens to Russia on the battlefield.
As far as the ideological dimensions of the Russian-Ukraine War, both the
aggressor and the defender rely to a great extent on older sources of
ideological mobilization and legitimacy. Anything and everything are grist for
the propaganda mill but this is a war about blood and soil, on both sides.
Nationalism, history, religion, sacrifice, flags, icons, and statues all are
enlisted in a sacred cause.[7] Regardless of Western talk about Russian fascists
and Russian talk about Ukrainian Neo-Nazis, both sides look decidedly martial
and nationalistic in ways that seem to put them at variance with the Western
zeitgeist. This reality will have consequences after the war for both sides no
matter who wins. And while the willingness of the brave Ukrainians to fight and
die has been one of the great surprises of the war, it is hard to believe that
Western armies would do better than either the Ukrainians or the Russians in
fighting the type of grinding war that has been fought, at the siege of Mariupol
or in the trenches of Bakhmut. Both sides seem equally weary and equally
committed, both are holding on and either one could crack under such pressure.
Both sides warn of future escalation.[8]
Western armies, especially the Europeans, but even the more experienced
Americans, are designed not to have to take such casualties or fight in such
close quarters for so long because the lack of ideological motivation and the
rigors of electoral democracy make them unsustainable. Western technological
advances aim to make such sacrifices unnecessary. The West is doing in the war
in Ukraine what it seems conditioned to do best these days: Sending money and
shipping weapons.
Fighting for the Glory of Ukraine or for Mother Russia, for survival, even
fighting for money and bloodlust, are cruder, more basic and stronger motives
than fighting for the much touted "rules-based international order."[9] There
are those people – mostly non-Westerners – still willing to fight in these
existential ways, as we have witnessed in insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan
and see in Ukraine, and there those who are not. The atavistic ways seen on both
sides in this war terrify because they point to mindsets and values that the
West had thought were gone, or should be gone, but that remain vividly present
and important.
*Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI.
[1] See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 395, Wars Of Multiple Miscalculations, June 27,
2022.
[2] See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 451, Prospects Of Russia's War In Ukraine For
2023, January 24, 2023.
[3] Theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/#3, April
2016.
[4] See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 374, The Latest Propaganda Wars, April 14, 2022.
[5] See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 375, That 'Liberal, Post-Modern' Life, April 19,
2022.
[6] Dw.com/en/the-propaganda-war-for-ukraine/a-64282924, February 6, 2023.
[7] Grid.news/story/global/2023/01/26/russian-propaganda-responds-to-german-tank-deployment-to-ukraine-nazis-swastikas-and-talk-of-world-war-iii,
January 6, 2023.
[8] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 10476, Senior Russian Columnist Rostovsky:
Budanov's Appointment As Ukrainian Defense Minister Presages Further Escalation
By Ukraine, February 9, 2023.
[9] Editorials.voa.gov/a/6472165.html, March 6, 2022.