English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 06/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
Lift your drooping hands and strengthen your weak knees, and make straight paths for your feet, so that what is lame may not be put out of joint, but rather be healed
Letter to the Hebrews 12/01-13/:”Since we are surrounded by so great a cloud of witnesses, let us also lay aside every weight and the sin that clings so closely, and let us run with perseverance the race that is set before us, looking to Jesus the pioneer and perfecter of our faith, who for the sake of the joy that was set before him endured the cross, disregarding its shame, and has taken his seat at the right hand of the throne of God. Consider him who endured such hostility against himself from sinners, so that you may not grow weary or lose heart. In your struggle against sin you have not yet resisted to the point of shedding your blood. And you have forgotten the exhortation that addresses you as children ‘My child, do not regard lightly the discipline of the Lord, or lose heart when you are punished by him; for the Lord disciplines those whom he loves, and chastises every child whom he accepts.’ Endure trials for the sake of discipline. God is treating you as children; for what child is there whom a parent does not discipline? If you do not have that discipline in which all children share, then you are illegitimate and not his children. Moreover, we had human parents to discipline us, and we respected them. Should we not be even more willing to be subject to the Father of spirits and live?For they disciplined us for a short time as seemed best to them, but he disciplines us for our good, in order that we may share his holiness. Now, discipline always seems painful rather than pleasant at the time, but later it yields the peaceful fruit of righteousness to those who have been trained by it. Therefore lift your drooping hands and strengthen your weak knees, and make straight paths for your feet, so that what is lame may not be put out of joint, but rather be healed.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 05-06/2023
Al-Rahi accuses lawmakers of 'high treason'
Bishop Aoudi: We do not see around us in this country except Pharisee officials
Paris to Host Int’l Meeting Monday to Address Lebanon’s Presidential Crisis
Lebanon Hopes UNESCO Danger Listing Could Save Crumbling Modernist Fairground
Top exchangers accused of currency speculation arrested
Raad: Enemies want president who would tighten noose on resistance
Sami Gemayel: Kataeb elections are a unique model of democracy, and we are working for the party to be strong & defend the Lebanese
Makary at the opening of 'Media Leaders Forum' in Amman: Lebanon has never left its Arab borders, for a tree does not thrive without its roots
Education Ministry: School principals must monitor weather fluctuations to adopt suitable decisions on opening or closing schools
Asmar rejects decision to price foodstuffs in US dollars, calls for immediate reversal
"Securing medicines for cancer diseases a humanitarian, patriotic duty," tweets Moussa
Army arrests an infiltrator from occupied Palestinian territories through Marjeyoun's plain

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 05-06/2023
Israeli Army Fails to Arrest Wanted Men in Jericho
Iran acknowledges ‘tens of thousands’ detained in protests
Iran's supreme leader issues pardon for 'tens of thousands' of prisoners - IRNA
Cousin of Iranian Mahsa Amini finds refuge in France following death threats
Iran to pardon tens of thousands of prisoners jailed during protests, state media reports
Ukraine Ready to Repel Possible Russian Offensive this Month, Defense Minister
Russia says Ukraine planning to blow up buildings in false flag operation
Lavrov Announced Preliminary Agreement on Iran’s Accession to Russian-Syrian-Turkish Platform
Russia Says Ukraine Planning to Blow up Buildings in False Flag Operation
Europe Bans Russian Diesel, Other Oil Products over Ukraine
Fierce Fighting in North of Ukraine’s Bakhmut, Says Russian Head of Wagner Group
Former Israeli PM: Putin Promised Not to Kill Zelenskyy
Suspected Chinese Spy Balloons Crossed Into U.S. 3 Times During Trump Administration
Pakistan's former military ruler Pervez Musharraf dies

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 05-06/2023
The Iran-Israel War As Seen From Tehran/Raghida Dergham/February 05/ 2023
Biden Cannot Delay Sending Tanks to Ukraine/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/February 05/2023
A Frightening Lack of Seriousness/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 05/2023
Reforming Regimes Must Precede Greening/Najib Saab/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 05/2023
Clipping the wings of Iran and its militias/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Arab News/February 05, 2023

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 05-06/2023
Al-Rahi accuses lawmakers of 'high treason'
Naharnet/February 05/2023
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday accused the country’s lawmakers of “high treason” for failing to elect a new president. “Through blind obedience to their leaders, the MPs of the nation are refraining from electing a president, favoring instead the growing collapse of the constitutional and public institutions, injustice against the people and forcing the best of our skilled labor to experience the bitterness of emigration,” al-Rahi said in his Sunday Mass sermon. “Isn’t this high treason? Isn’t it rather a great crime against the Lebanese people and state?” al-Rahi added. “They are speaking of the need for dialogue in order to reach a consensual candidate, while some are clinging to their candidate and want to impose him on others and other parties are holding onto the veto right against the nomination of many eligible candidates,” the patriarch lamented. Accordingly, al-Rahi said dialogue needs to be based on “the situation of Lebanon and the Lebanese.” “The best and most appropriate candidate for this situation must be sought,” the patriarch added, calling for rising above “selfishness” and “partisan interests.”

Bishop Aoudi: We do not see around us in this country except Pharisee officials
LCCC/February 05/2023
Bishop Aoudi today in his Homely asked: “How does the parliament, which is entrusted with implementing the constitution, fail to elect a president and what benefits do they puruse in this obstruction? He called on the MPs to overcome their differences, and do their duty to preserve the trust of the people and the role of the Parliament. He added, "My prayer is that the Lord will inspire the leaders of this country to go towards building, trust in the state and imposing its prestige, building institutions and activating their role, especially the oversight ones, in order to impose accountability and the impunity of any criminal or guilty person, and finally the citizen’s edification on respecting his homeland, belonging to it alone, and working for it, edifying him on love, tolerance, non-compromising, and rejecting partisan and sectarian loyalties at the expense of loyalty to the homeland. He concluded, "We do not see around us in this country except Pharisee officials who hide behind the pretext of applying the laws that they have adapted to their interests, but in reality they oppress an entire people. Those must remember that their salvation is linked to the salvation of their brothers, the sons of their people, and that the laws were designed to define rights and duties, and to hold them accountable." Every negligent, criminal, and fugitive from justice".

Paris to Host Int’l Meeting Monday to Address Lebanon’s Presidential Crisis
Washington, Beirut – Elie Youssef and Asharq Al-Awsat/February 05/2023
Paris will host on Monday an international meeting aimed at tackling the Lebanese presidential crisis. Representatives from Saudi Arabia, the United States, France, Egypt and Qatar will attend. Lebanese officials are skeptical that the Paris meeting will yield a breakthrough in the impasse. Rather, they believe it will discuss the general characteristics of what the next president should enjoy. Lebanon has been without a president since November when Michel Aoun’s term ended. Several elections sessions have been held at parliament, but no single candidate has won enough votes to be named president.
The Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), headed by former MP Walid Jumblatt, had recently declared that army commander Joseph Aoun is at the top of the list of potential candidates. Influential parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has been holding intensive meetings with various officials to help end the impasse, but little progress has been achieved. Meanwhile, a Lebanese parliamentary delegation left Washington on Saturday after a nearly week-long visit to attend the annual National Prayer Breakfast at the White House. The delegation included “Change” MPs, several journalists and obscure political figures, who had made the trip at their own personal expense. Sources from the delegation said each member had their own agenda during the trip that they discussed with various American officials, including US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf. Leaf advised the Lebanese to take the initiative themselves and resolve the presidential deadlock, form a new government that can take on the responsibility of rebuilding state institutions and achieve political and economic reforms. Independent MP Yassine Yassine told Asharq Al-Awsat that Leaf was clear in ruling out the possibility of Lebanon relying on American “intervention” to end the crisis. Moreover, after meeting with various Congress officials, he concluded that the Lebanese crisis is not a priority in Washington and it will not intervene to back any candidate.

Lebanon Hopes UNESCO Danger Listing Could Save Crumbling Modernist Fairground
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 February, 2023
Its arch is cracking and its vast pavilions lie empty, but the crumbling Rachid Karami International Fair in Lebanon's port city Tripoli now has hope of revival, having been added to the United Nations' list of world heritage sites in danger. Designed by Brazilian architect Oscar Niemeyer in 1962, the collection of structures on the 70-hectare plot is considered one of the key works of 20th century modernism in the Middle East. But the fair park has slowly decayed due to repeated rounds of fighting over the last 60 years, poor maintenance and most recently Lebanon's crippling, three-year-old financial crisis.
"It was placed on the World Heritage List exceptionally, quickly and urgently – and on the list of heritage in danger because it's in a critical situation," said Joseph Kreidi, UNESCO's national program officer for culture in Beirut. Its elegant arch is missing concrete in some parts, exposing the rebar underneath. Rainwater has pooled at the locked entrances. One section is sealed off by a sign that reads, "Unsafe building entry." "Placing it on the World Heritage Danger List is an appeal to all countries of the world, as if to say: this site needs some care," said Kreidi. He said it was up to the Lebanese authorities to draw together a plan for the site's protection and rehabilitation but that UNESCO, the United Nations' cultural agency, could help search for funding and provide technical expertise. Lebanon has five other sites on UNESCO's World Heritage list, most of them citadels and ancient temples. Niemeyer is recognized as one of the fathers of modern architecture and the site in Tripoli was an early foray into the Middle East. Construction of the fairground began in the 1960s but was delayed when civil war erupted in Lebanon in 1975. Fighters used the site to stage operations and stored weapons underneath its concrete dome. Mira Minkara, a freelance tour guide from Tripoli and a member of the Oscar Niemeyer Foundation's Tripoli chapter, has fond – but rare – memories of the fairground as a child. For the most part, it was off-limits to Tripoli's residents given safety concerns. But Minkara remembered her first visit during a festival of pan-African culture and crafts. She hopes that UNESCO's recognition could bring new festivals, exhibitions and economic benefits to Tripoli – already one of the poorest cities on the Mediterranean before Lebanon's financial meltdown began. Lebanon's cultural heritage has been hit hard in recent years. The 2020 Beirut port blast tore through 19th-century homes in historic neighborhoods and power outages caused by the financial crisis have cut supplies to the national museum. "We hope things change a little," Minkara said. "It's high time for this fairground to emerge from this long sleep, this almost-death."

Top exchangers accused of currency speculation arrested
Naharnet/Sunday, 5 February, 2023 
Security forces have arrested a number of notorious money changers who are accused of currency speculation operations in a wave of raids across Lebanon. According to TV networks, those arrested include Ali Nimr al-Khalil, his relative Issa Kanj and others who have recently emerged as the main currency speculators in the country. The raids and arrests were carried out by the Information Branch of the Internal Security Forces. “A large force from the Information Branch raided the places of a number of illegal money changers in Sidon, arresting three of them and seizing a sum of money from one of them,” MTV reported. “The raids continued until dawn due to the search for their shops or places of residence,” the TV network added. “Another individual, who hails from Sidon, was arrested on Tripoli’s road, raising the number of detainees to four,” MTV said. A number of illegal money changers were also arrested in the Zahrani region, including one in Sarafand. The development comes days after State Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oueidat sent a memo to Financial Prosecutor Judge Ali Ibrahim asking him to “immediately” order the arrest of the money changers and speculators who are contributing to “the collapse of the national currency.” According to media reports, the request for the arrest of currency speculators was initially made by Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh. The Lebanese pound, which had already lost more than 95 percent of its value since 2019, plummeted to new lows against the dollar in recent days, trading for nearly LBP 65,000 against the dollar on the black market. Since 2019, Lebanon has been in the throes of an economic crisis dubbed by the World Bank as one of the worst in recent global history, pushing much of the population into poverty. As the local currency nosedived, fuel prices have soared, reaching about $19 for 20 liters of petrol.

Raad: Enemies want president who would tighten noose on resistance
Naharnet/Sunday, 5 February, 2023
The head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammed Raad, on Saturday warned that his party’s “enemies” are “trying to turn the presidential juncture in Lebanon into a platform for taking hold of a president who would implement their policies and continue their scheme of tightening the noose on the Resistance.”“We are not the ones paralyzing the country. It is rather being paralyzed by those who are putting their hand on its money, banks, policies, siege and sanctions, preventing that it be supplied with electricity,” Raad said.

Sami Gemayel: Kataeb elections are a unique model of democracy, and we are working for the party to be strong & defend the Lebanese
NNA/February 05/2023
Head of the Lebanese Kataeb Party, MP Sami Gemayel, indicated that "the Kataeb elections are a unique model of democracy," adding that they are endeavouring for the party to be strong and to defend the Lebanese. Speaking in an interview with "Al-Jadeed" TV, he said that "the polling will be repeated in the second round to elect a second vice president of the Kataeb Party.""Our party's concern is internal and democracy is at the forefront today, hoping that we will give an example to all parties so that they adopt the culture of democracy that the Kataeb adopts...I am the seventh president of the party and I hope that 10 party chiefs will come after me," Genmayel added. He continued to emphasize that "400 partisans decide the future in the party for the coming years, and this is our concern every day and every hour," stressing that "what we are doing is for the sake of the Lebanese, so that the Kataeb Party is strong and defends them...Tomorrow we return to politics, but today the priority is for elections in the Kataeb, which is a unique model in democracy.”

Makary at the opening of 'Media Leaders Forum' in Amman: Lebanon has never left its Arab borders, for a tree does not thrive without its roots
NNA/February 05/2023
Caretaker Minister of Information, Ziad Makary, participated in the opening of the eighth forum for media leaders in the Jordanian capital, Amman, which is organized by the Arab Media Forum Authority in cooperation with the Ministry of Government Communication in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, under the patronage of Prime Minister Bishr Hani Al-Khasawneh and in partnership with the League of Arab States. Taking place under the headline, "The Media Industry in Light of Changes," the forum was inaugurated by Jordanian Minister of Government Communication, Faisal Al-Shboul, representing PM Al-Khasawneh, in presence of prominent Arab media officials, senior advisors and elites. In his delivered address at the forum's opening session, Minister Makary thanked the organizers and invited the Arab information ministers to participate in the events organized by Beirut on the 23rd and 24th of February. "It gives me great pleasure to be here, in brotherly Jordan, and to partake in the eighth forum of Arab media leaders, held under the auspices of the Prime Minister of Jordan, and in partnership with the League of Arab States, under whose banner we celebrate 'Beirut, the capital of Arab media', at the end of this month," Makary said.
He added, "I take this opportunity to extend my gratitude and appreciation to His Excellency the friendly Ambassador Ahmed Rashid Khattabi for the strenuous efforts he made to render the Beirut events a success, and my thanks go to the Secretary-General of the Arab Media Forum, Mr. Madi Al-Khamis, who spared no effort in this regard...I will also take advantage of my presence here to extend a close invitation to your Excellencies, to share with us the joy of celebrating Beirut, the capital of Arab media for the year 2023."
Makary continued, "Lebanon has never left the Arab embrace, because a tree does not live without its roots...We have a firm root in every Arab country, and we have a spacious home in every Arab capital...""Beirut, the capital of Arab media, is our way to cool down the engines, and through the honoring presence of our Arab brothers on the 23rd and 24th of this February, together we will tell the world that Beirut does not die...and if it dies, it will die standing tall like trees, and if it dies, it will rise again," Makary asserted.
He concluded by reiterating that Beirut has taken on this challenge despite its difficult political and financial circumstances, betting on its young men and women whose intellectual capabilities constitute an exceptional lever, "and through them we will prove to the world that Beirut is alive because its people are alive."

Education Ministry: School principals must monitor weather fluctuations to adopt suitable decisions on opening or closing schools
NNA/February 05/2023
The Education Ministry's press office issued the following statement this afternoon: “Given the prevailing climatic conditions in Lebanon, the Ministry of Education and Higher Learning calls on principals of schools, high schools and public and private professional Institutes to monitor weather fluctuations and take the suitable decisions in coordination with the parents and the administration, whether to open or close schools starting tomorrow, Monday, and throughout the coming days."The statement cautioned against the formation of ice on the roads leading to various schools for fear of sliding accidents, and for the safety of students and the educational staff.

Asmar rejects decision to price foodstuffs in US dollars, calls for immediate reversal
NNA/February 05/2023
President of the General Labor Union, Bechara Asmar, announced his categorical refusal of the decision by Caretaker Minister of Economy, Amin Salam, to price food products and commodities in US dollars, calling for the immediate revesaral of this decision. According to Asmar, this decision is unconstitutional and illegal and has not been shared with the Labor Union nor with consumers and the associations that represent them. Asmar affirmed the Union's total rejection of said decision, calling for its immediate cancellation. He added that the Union will continue its contacts with those concerned, revealing that a meeting will be held at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow, Monday, with the Minister of Economy to discuss this issue and ways to cancel the decision after briefing the minister on the disastrous consequences of adhering to it.

"Securing medicines for cancer diseases a humanitarian, patriotic duty," tweets Moussa
NNA/February 05/2023
Head of the Parliamentary Human Rights Committee, MP Michel Moussa, wrote on Twitter: “Medicines for cancerous diseases remain a priority, and securing them by the state is a moral, humanitarian and patriotic duty, and the opposite of that is moral bankruptcy that crowns chaos in the country...Ease the pain of patients and do not kill hope!”

Army arrests an infiltrator from occupied Palestinian territories through Marjeyoun's plain
NNA/February 05/2023
Lebanese Army Intelligence in Marjeyoun arrested a short while ago one person for his infiltration from the occupied Palestinian territories into the Lebanese territories through the plain of Marjeyoun, as investigations were launched under the supervision of the concerned judiciary.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 05-06/2023
Israeli Army Fails to Arrest Wanted Men in Jericho
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 February, 2023
The Israeli army said it concluded on Saturday a 4-hour military operation in the Aqabat Jabr refugee camp southwest of Jericho without arresting individuals wanted in a shooting attack that took place last week in a nearby restaurant. The army confirmed that it arrested the “suspects” and not the “wanted” men.
The military spokesperson said that hundreds of soldiers besieged two buildings where wanted individuals took shelter. While six of them surrendered from one of the buildings, the soldiers launched rockets at the other building. There were no Israeli soldiers wounded. Israel transformed the camp into a battlefield after it stormed it, besieged the houses, and conducted field interrogations with the residents, leading to more than 19 injuries among Palestinians. Naser Anani, the director of Jericho Governmental Hospital, said that three critical injuries were transferred to hospitals in Ramallah. The West Bank is on the edge after Israel killed ten Palestinians in one attack on Jenin which Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas responded to by halting security coordination. A Palestinian opened fire on Israelis the next day and killed seven. Wasel Abu Yousef, a member of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), told the official Voice of Palestine radio that the leadership has rejected all the pressures exerted on it to discourage it from continuing with its international movement and retract the decisions it had recently taken, including defining the relationship with Israel and ending security coordination. He said that the leadership's decision is to continue to regulate the relationship with the occupying power, stop security coordination, not succumb to Israeli threats, and continue with measures to provide protection for the Palestinian people, stressing expediting steps at the ICC to hold Israel accountable for its crimes. For the second straight year, the Biden administration has circled the month of Ramadan as a potential accelerant for another eruption in violence between Israelis and Palestinians. Senior US officials used their visits to Jerusalem over the last two weeks to urge Israel to take preemptive steps in the coming weeks in order to ensure that the sensitive period does not feature more bloodshed, two US and Israeli officials told The Times of Israel. The holy month is slated to begin around March 22. The top Biden aides made clear that the issue is a matter of concern for the US and they asked their Israeli counterparts how they plan to address the matter. The US official said that a particular emphasis was placed on them confirming that Israel will ensure adherence to the status quo at Jerusalem’s Temple Mount.

Iran acknowledges ‘tens of thousands’ detained in protests
AP/February 05, 2023
Reports about the decree offered no explanation for the decision by Khamenei
Prisons already had faced overcrowding in the country after years of protests over economic and other matters
DUBAI: Iran’s supreme leader on Sunday reportedly ordered an amnesty or reduction in prison sentences for “tens of thousands” of people detained amid nationwide anti-government protests shaking the country, acknowledging for the first time the scale of the crackdown.
The decree by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, part of a yearly pardoning the supreme leader does before the anniversary of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, comes as authorities have yet to say how many people they detained in the demonstrations. State media also published a list of caveats over the order that would disqualify those with ties abroad or facing spying charges — allegations which have been met with wide international criticism. Khamenei “agreed to offer amnesty and reduce the sentences of tens of thousands accused and convicted in the recent incidents,” the state-run IRNA news agency said in a Farsi report. A later IRNA report carried by its English-language service said the pardons and commuted sentences were for “tens of thousands of convicts, including the arrestees of the recent riots in Iran.” Authorities did not immediately acknowledge the discrepancy in the reports.
The reports about the decree offered no explanation for the decision by Khamenei, who has final say on all matters of state in Iran. However, prisons and detention facilities already had faced overcrowding in the country after years of protests over economic issues and other matters.
Activists immediately dismissed Khamenei’s decree. “Khamenei’s hypocritical pardon doesn’t change anything,” wrote Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam of the Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights. “Not only all protesters must be released unconditionally, but also it is a public right that those who ordered the bloody repression and their agents are held accountable.”Authorities also did not name any of those who had been pardoned or seen shorter sentences. Instead, state television continued to refer to the demonstrations as being a “foreign-backed riot,” rather than homegrown anger over the September death of Masha Amini, an Iranian-Kurdish woman detained by the country’s morality police. Anger also has been spreading over the collapse of the Iranian rial against the US dollar, as well as Tehran arming Russia with bomb-carrying drones in its war on Ukraine.
More than 19,600 people have been arrested during the protests, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that’s been tracking the crackdown. At least 527 people have been killed as authorities violently suppressed demonstrations, the group said. Iran hasn’t offered a death toll for months. It already has executed at least four people detained amid the protests after internationally criticized trials.
All this comes as Iran’s nuclear deal has collapsed and Tehran has enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build “several” atomic bombs if it chooses, the United Nations’ top nuclear envoy has said. A shadow war between Iran and Israel has risen out of the chaos, with Tehran blaming Israel for a drone attack on a military workshop in Isfahan last week as well. Meanwhile, a long-detained opposition leader in Iran is calling for a nationwide referendum about whether to write a new constitution for the Islamic Republic. Mir Hossein Mousavi’s call, posted late Saturday by the opposition Kaleme website, included him saying he didn’t believe Iran’s current system giving final say to a supreme leader worked any longer. He also called for the formation of a constitutional assembly of “real representatives” to write a new constitution. It remains unlikely Iran’s theocracy will heed the 80-year-old politician’s call. He and his wife have been under house arrest for years after his disputed presidential election loss in 2009 led to the widespread Green Movement protests that security forces also put down. However, he himself had supported and served in Iran’s theocracy for decades.
In 2019, Mousavi compared Khamenei to the former Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, whose rule saw troops gun down demonstrators in an event that led to the Islamic Revolution. Separately, former reformist President Mohammad Khatami urged “free and competitive elections” after the release of political prisoners both imprisoned and under house arrest. “Reformism at least has faced a ... dead end, so people have a right to be frustrated about it as they are about the ruling system,” Khatami said in a statement circulated online.Currently, hard-liners control all levers of power in the country. Reformists like Khatami and Mousavi previously sought to change and open up Iran’s Islamic Republic while maintaining its system. But increasingly, protesters have demanded an end to theocratic rule in the country.

Iran's supreme leader issues pardon for 'tens of thousands' of prisoners - IRNA
DUBAI/Reuters/February 05, 2023
Iran's supreme leader has pardoned "tens of thousands" of prisoners including some arrested in recent anti-government protests, state news agency IRNA reported on Sunday, after a deadly state crackdown helped quell the nationwide unrest. However, the pardon approved by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came with conditions, according to details announced in state media reports, which said the measure would not apply to any of the numerous dual nationals held in Iran. State news agency IRNA said those accused of "corruption on earth" - a capital charge brought against some protesters, four of whom have been executed - would also not be pardoned. Neither would it apply to those charged with "spying for foreign agencies" or those "affiliated with groups hostile to the Islamic Republic", state media reported. Iran was swept by protests following the death of a young Iranian Kurdish woman in the custody of the country's morality police last September. Iranians from all walks of life took part, marking one of the boldest challenges to the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution. According to the HRANA activist news agency, about 20,000 people have been arrested in connection with the protests, which the authorities accused Iran's foreign enemies of fomenting. Rights groups say over 500 have been killed in the crackdown, including 70 minors. At least four people have been hanged, according to the Iranian judiciary. In a letter to Khamenei requesting the pardon, judiciary head Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei said: "During recent events, a number of people, especially young people, committed wrong actions and crimes as a result of the indoctrination and propaganda of the enemy.
Protests have slowed considerably since the hangings began.
"Since the foreign enemies and anti-revolutionary currents' plans have been foiled, many of these youth now regret their actions," Ejei wrote.
Khamenei approved the pardons in honour of the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution. It would not apply to those "facing charges of spying for foreign agencies, having direct contact with foreign agents, committing intentional murder and injury, (and) committing destruction and arson of state property". "Naturally, those who do not express regret for their activities and give a written commitment for not repeating those activities, will not be pardoned," deputy judiciary chief Sadeq Rahimi said, state media reported. The Norway-based Iran Human Rights group said this week that at least 100 detained protesters faced possible death sentences. Amnesty International has criticised Iranian authorities for what it called "sham trials designed to intimidate those participating in the popular uprising that has rocked Iran".

Cousin of Iranian Mahsa Amini finds refuge in France following death threats
Alison Hird with RFI/Sun, February 5, 2023
Iranian Kurdish activist Erfan Mortezai, the cousin of Mahsa Amini whose death in police custody sparked protests across Iran, has found protection in France. He talked to RFI about the sense of relief and continuing his fight against the regime in Tehran. Mortezai arrived in Paris on Saturday after France's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded favourably to his request to find a safe haven in Europe. The Iranian Kurdish activist had been in Tehran's crosshairs even before he publicly denounced the death of his cousin Mahsa Amini. He left Iran for Iraqi Kurdistan a year ago. "One day I was arrested and imprisoned for 18 months. When I was released, I fled to Iraq and joined the Iranian Communist Party," he told RFI's Théo Renaudon. He became a peshmerga fighter with Komala – an Iranian Kurdish opposition party based in Iraq and which is seeking autonomy for Kurdish-populated areas of northwestern Iran. Komala has conducted a long-running cross-border insurgency against the Tehran authorities, which see it as a terrorist organisation. They accuse it, along with other opposition groups, of fomenting the latest wave of protests from outside the country. When Mahsa Amini died in police custody last September, Iranian authorities said the cause of death was a heart attack. His comments brought him death threats. Fearing for his life, he sought protection in Europe.

Iran to pardon tens of thousands of prisoners jailed during protests, state media reports
Sky News/February 5, 2023
Tens of thousands of prisoners detained in Iran amid vast anti-government protests will be pardoned, state media reports.
The country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is said to have ordered amnesties or reductions in jail terms, although there are several exceptions. Nobody accused of "corruption on earth" - a charge which brings the death penalty - would be released, said state news agency IRNA, nor anyone "affiliated with groups hostile to the Islamic Republic". People facing internationally disputed charges of "spying for foreign agencies" will also be kept behind bars. The decision comes as part of an annual pardoning before Iran marks the anniversary of its 1979 Islamic Revolution, which ended its historical monarchy and ushered in the current regime. Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, head of Iran's judiciary, said many of those being released were "young people" who suffered from "indoctrination" by hostile forces and "now regret their actions". There may also be some practical motive behind the move, as Iran's detention centres face immense overcrowding, dating back well beyond the recent nationwide unrest sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in September.
Thousands arrested and hundreds feared dead in protests
Ms Amini, 22, was arrested for allegedly breaking the country's strict Islamic dress code, and died in custody. The UN says thousands of people have been arrested during the subsequent demonstrations. According to the group Human Rights Activists in Iran, at least 527 protesters have been killed by authorities.
Iran has not said how many have died for months, but it has executed at least four people over the unrest, which the regime insists has little to do with Ms Amini's death. State TV has instead referred to the protests as a "foreign-backed riot". Amnesty International has condemned the hangings as the result of "sham trials designed to intimidate those participating in the popular uprising that has rocked Iran". Iranians opposing the government have also expressed anger over Tehran's backing of Russia in its war in Ukraine, including providing deadly drones, and the collapse of the country's rial currency against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the city of Isfahan was left reeling from a surprise aerial attack on a military factory. The strike has been blamed on Israel. A long-detained opposition leader to the regime, Mir Hossein Mousavi, has called for a nationwide referendum on whether a new constitution should be written. While he supported Iran's theocracy for decades, the 80-year-old and his wife have been under house arrest since protests erupted over his disputed election loss in 2019.

Ukraine Ready to Repel Possible Russian Offensive this Month, Defense Minister
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 February, 2023
Ukraine expects a possible major Russian offensive this month, but Kyiv has the reserves to hold back Moscow's forces even though the latest Western military supplies will not all arrive in time, Ukraine's defense minister said on Sunday. Russia could launch the new attack for "symbolic" reasons around the first anniversary of its invasion, but its resources are not ready from a military point of view, the minister, Oleksii Reznikov, told a news conference. "Despite everything, we expect a possible Russian offensive in February. This is only from the point of view of symbolism; it's not logical from a military view. Because not all of their resources are ready. But they're doing it anyway," he said. Russian forces have been making incremental advances in the east as Moscow tries to capture the embattled city of Bakhmut and revive its faltering invasion after a string of battlefield setbacks in the second half of last year. Reznikov said the offensive would likely be launched in the east - where Russia is trying to capture all the heavily-industrialized Donbas region - or the south where it wants to widen its land corridor to the occupied peninsula of Crimea. He estimated that Russia had 12,000 troops in Belarusian military bases, a number that would not be enough to launch a significant attack from Belarus into Ukraine's north, reopening a new front. The United States and other Western governments have pledged billions of dollars in new military assistance including tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to help Ukraine withstand a new attack as well as to help Kyiv launch a counteroffensive. "Not all of the Western weaponry will arrive in time. But we are ready. We have created our resources and reserves, which we are able to deploy and with which we are able to hold back the attack," Reznikov said.

Russia says Ukraine planning to blow up buildings in false flag operation
Reuters/February 05, 2023
Russia's defence ministry accused Ukraine of preparing to blow up buildings in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk and then accuse Moscow of carrying out war crimes and targeting civilians in a false flag operation. The defence ministry provided no evidence for the claims, which it outlined in a post shared on social media on Sunday, saying that the alleged attacks would be used by Kyiv to push for Western governments to increase weapons supplies to the country. Reuters was unable to immediately verify the battlefield claims of either side. A Russian missile killed at least three when it struck a residential building in the city of Kramatorsk on Thursday, police in Ukraine said. Russia has not publicly commented on that strike. Moscow has denied targeting civilians throughout what it calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine. Kyiv and Western governments say hundreds of civilians have been killed in Russian missile strikes on residential sites across Ukraine since Moscow's forces invaded last February. On Sunday, Russia's defence ministry said Kyiv planned to detonate three medical buildings - dispensaries and a hospital - and "accuse Russia of an allegedly 'deliberate attack' on civilian objects".
"The bombing of the medical institutions will be presented as another 'atrocity' of Russian troops, requiring a response from the world community and accelerating the supply of long-range missiles to Kyiv (to be used) for strikes on Russian territory," the defence ministry said. There was no immediate response from Kyiv to the claims.

Lavrov Announced Preliminary Agreement on Iran’s Accession to Russian-Syrian-Turkish Platform
The Syrian Observer/Thursday February 2nd, 2023 by ATHR PRESS (Pro-government newspaper)
Iran's involvement would reduce the potential for Turkey's delays, evasions, and lack of commitment, Athr Press.
Russia and Turkey announced on Tuesday that Iran had officially joined the Syrian-Turkish talks. This came after a noticeable lull in official discussions following the announcement of a postponement for a meeting of foreign ministers, which was originally scheduled for mid-January.
The former Syrian ambassador to Ankara, Nidal Qabalan, confirmed during a Tuesday television interview with Al-Mayadeen channel that the announcement of Iran’s participation as a mediator alongside Russia in the Syrian-Turkish talks was the most significant development in the past 24 hours. He emphasized that Iran’s involvement in this mediation is a Syrian desire and nearly a Syrian requirement.
Erdogan Calls for Turkish-Syrian-Russian-Iranian Meeting
Qabalan highlighted that Iran’s involvement would reduce the potential for Turkey’s delays, evasions, and lack of commitment. He added that past experiences have shown that Turkey has not fulfilled its obligations to Damascus and Moscow regarding the withdrawal of Turkish military from Syrian territory and terrorist groups from Idleb and elsewhere. The former Syrian ambassador to Ankara emphasized that Syria feels more secure with Iran’s involvement in the Syrian-Turkish reconciliation efforts. He noted that the Syrian-Russian alliance differs from the Syrian-Iranian alliance, explaining that “the alliance between Syria and Iran is an organic bond in destiny, goal, and strategy. If Iran, along with Russia, becomes a guarantor of any future agreements with Turkey, this gives Syria a sense of security.”He emphasized that Iran’s presence can exert pressure on Turkey to ensure it fulfills its obligations. He stated that “without Iran’s involvement, there can be no credible mediation leading to a summit. This is not just based on information, but is also a conviction and opinion.” Qabalan pointed out that Iran holds a unique weight as a mediator due to the historical relationships between Tehran and Ankara, particularly in regard to Iran’s gas supply to the Turkish industry. It is worth mentioning that Iran initiated the Syrian-Turkish reconciliation efforts during a visit by its Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, to both Damascus and Ankara in July 2022. After his visit to Ankara, Abdollahian stated that it was necessary to consult with the Syrian authorities. On the other hand, Al-Watan newspaper said that intensive political meetings are taking place in the Russian capital, Moscow, to push forward efforts for Syrian-Turkish rapprochement.
The anonymous sources indicated that Moscow and Tehran are hastening the reconciliation after obtaining information about potential American plans to overthrow the current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and support his opponents’ rise to power. This news drives Moscow and Tehran to prioritize the reconciliation and prompts Damascus and Ankara to take concrete steps to advance their rapprochement, which could boost Erdogan’s chances in elections and help him gain the necessary points to win. According to the sources, Washington may take during the next stage escalatory steps towards the Turkish economy that may affect the government’s ability to control the Turkish lira. This will lead to a rapid economic deterioration that directly and catastrophically affects Erdogan’s popularity in order to support opposition parties. The sources indicated that Iran’s presence in the series of ongoing meetings is expected, particularly since recent Turkish and Russian statements have revealed their satisfaction with Iran joining the mediation efforts. This was confirmed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a joint press conference with his Egyptian counterpart, Sameh Shoukry, on Tuesday, where he stated that an agreement was reached for Iran’s participation in the process.
*This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.

Russia Says Ukraine Planning to Blow up Buildings in False Flag Operation
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 February, 2023
Russia's defense ministry accused Ukraine of preparing to blow up buildings in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk and then accuse Moscow of carrying out war crimes and targeting civilians in a false flag operation. The defense ministry provided no evidence for the claims, which it outlined in a post shared on social media on Sunday, saying that the alleged attacks would be used by Kyiv to push for Western governments to increase weapons supplies to the country. Reuters was unable to immediately verify the battlefield claims of either side. A Russian missile killed at least three when it struck a residential building in the city of Kramatorsk on Thursday, police in Ukraine said. Russia has not publicly commented on that strike. Moscow has denied targeting civilians throughout what it calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine. Kyiv and Western governments say hundreds of civilians have been killed in Russian missile strikes on residential sites across Ukraine since Moscow's forces invaded last February. On Sunday, Russia's defense ministry said Kyiv planned to detonate three medical buildings - dispensaries and a hospital - and "accuse Russia of an allegedly 'deliberate attack' on civilian objects".
"The bombing of the medical institutions will be presented as another 'atrocity' of Russian troops, requiring a response from the world community and accelerating the supply of long-range missiles to Kyiv (to be used) for strikes on Russian territory," the defense ministry said. There was no immediate response from Kyiv to the claims.

Europe Bans Russian Diesel, Other Oil Products over Ukraine
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 February, 2023
Europe imposed a ban Sunday on Russian diesel fuel and other refined oil products, slashing energy dependency on Moscow and seeking to further crimp the Kremlin's fossil fuel earnings as punishment for invading Ukraine. The ban comes along with a price cap agreed by the Group of Seven allied democracies. The goal is allowing Russian diesel to keep flowing to countries like China and India and avoiding a sudden price rise that would hurt consumers worldwide, while reducing the profits funding Moscow's budget and war. Diesel is key for the economy because it is used to power cars, trucks carrying goods, farm equipment and factory machinery. Diesel prices have been elevated due to recovering demand after the COVID-19 pandemic and limits on refining capacity, contributing to inflation for other goods worldwide. The new sanctions create uncertainty about prices as the 27-nation European Union finds new supplies of diesel from the US, Middle East and India to replace those from Russia, which at one point delivered 10% of Europe's total diesel needs. Those are longer journeys than from Russia's ports, stretching available tankers. Prices also could be driven up by reviving demand from China as the economy rebounds after the end of draconian COVID-19 restrictions. The price cap of $100 per barrel for diesel, jet fuel and gasoline is to be enforced by barring insurance and shipping services from handling diesel priced over the limit. Most of those companies are located in Western countries.
It follows a $60-per-barrel cap on Russian crude that took effect in December and is supposed to work the same way. Both the diesel and oil caps could be tightened later. “Once we have these price caps set, we can squeeze the Russian price and deny them, deny (President Vladimir) Putin money for his war without a price spike that's going to hurt Western economies and developing economies,” said Thomas O'Donnell, a global fellow with the Washington-based Wilson Center. The diesel price cap will not bite immediately because it was set at about what Russian diesel trades for. Russia’s chief problem now will be finding new customers, not evading the price ceiling. However, the cap aims to prevent Russian gains from any sudden price spikes in refined oil products. Analysts say there might be a price bump initially as markets sort out the changes. But they say the embargo should not cause a price spike if the cap works as intended and Russian diesel keeps flowing to other countries. Diesel fuel at the pump has been flat since the start of December, costing 1.80 euros per liter ($7.37 per gallon) as of Jan. 30, according to the weekly oil market report issued by the European Union’s executive commission. Pump prices in Germany, the EU’s largest economy, fell 2.6 cents to 1.83 euros per liter ($7.48 per gallon) as of Jan. 31. The ban provides for a 55-day grace period for diesel loaded on tankers before Sunday, a step aimed at avoiding ruffling markets. European Union officials say importers have had time to adjust since the ban was announced in June. Russia earned more than $2 billion from diesel sales to Europe in December alone as importers appear to have stocked up with added purchases ahead of the ban. Europe has already banned Russian coal and most crude oil, while Moscow has cut off most shipments of natural gas.

Fierce Fighting in North of Ukraine’s Bakhmut, Says Russian Head of Wagner Group
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 February, 2023
The head of Russia's private Wagner militia said on Sunday that fierce fighting was ongoing in the northern parts of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which has been the focus of Russian forces' attention for weeks. Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the founder and head of the Wagner group, said his soldiers were "fighting for every street, every house, every stairwell" against Ukrainian forces who were not retreating. Russian forces have been attempting to encircle and capture Bakhmut, a city in the eastern Donbas region, for weeks, and appear to be making slow, grinding and costly progress. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said repeatedly in recent days that the situation around the city is tough. "Nobody will give away Bakhmut. We will fight for as long as we can. We consider Bakhmut our fortress," he said on Friday. Britain's defense ministry said on Sunday Russia had made "small advances" in its attempt to encircle Bakhmut. If Russian forces manage to capture the city, which has been decimated by months of artillery shelling, it would be their most important strategic advance since last summer, when an initial offensive through the east of Ukraine came to a halt and was eventually reversed in a series of stunning Ukrainian counter offensives in the second half of 2022. Prigozhin rejected reports in Russian media outlets that Ukrainian troops were abandoning Bakhmut. "Ukrainian forces are not retreating anywhere. They are fighting to the last," he said in a statement published on his Telegram channel. "Fierce battles are going on in the northern quarters for every street, every house, every stairwell," he added.

Former Israeli PM: Putin Promised Not to Kill Zelenskyy
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 February, 2023
A former Israeli prime minister who served briefly as a mediator at the start of Russia's war with Ukraine says he drew a promise from the Russian president not to kill his Ukrainian counterpart. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett became an unlikely intermediary in the war's first weeks, becoming one of the few Western leaders to meet President Vladimir Putin during the war in a snap trip to Moscow last March. While Bennett's mediation efforts appear to have done little to end the bloodshed that continues until today, his remarks, in an interview posted online late Saturday, shed light on the backroom diplomacy and urgent efforts that were underway to try to bring the conflict to a speedy conclusion in its early days. In the five-hour interview, which touched on numerous other subjects, Bennett says he asked Putin about whether he intended to kill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “I asked ‘what’s up with this? Are you planning to kill Zelenskyy?’ He said ‘I won’t kill Zelenskyy.’ I then said to him ‘I have to understand that you’re giving me your word that you won’t kill Zelenskyy.’ He said ‘I’m not going to kill Zelenskyy.’”Bennett said he then called Zelenskyy to inform him of Putin's pledge. “'Listen, I came out of a meeting, he’s not going to kill you.’ He asks, ‘are you sure?’ I said ’100% he won’t kill you.’”Bennett said that during his mediation, Putin dropped his vow to seek Ukraine's disarmament and Zelenskyy promised not to join NATO. Bennett, a largely untested leader who had served as prime minister for just over six months when the war broke out, unexpectedly thrust himself into international diplomacy after he had positioned Israel into an uncomfortable middle ground between Russia and Ukraine. Israel views its good ties with the Kremlin as strategic in the face of threats from Iran but it aligns itself with Western nations and also seeks to show support for Ukraine. An observant Jew and little known internationally, he flew to Moscow for his meeting with Putin during the Jewish Sabbath, breaking his religious commitments and putting himself at the forefront of global efforts to halt the war.
But his peacemaking efforts did not appear to take off and his time in power was short-lived. Bennett's government, an ideologically diverse union that sent current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a brief political exile, collapsed in the summer over infighting. Bennett stepped away from politics and is now a private citizen.

Suspected Chinese Spy Balloons Crossed Into U.S. 3 Times During Trump Administration
Mary Papenfuss/HuffPost/February 5, 2023
Suspected spy balloons from China crossed into the continental United States at least three times while Donald Trump was president, according to a statement Saturday by the Department of Defense citing an unnamed “senior defense official.”“Chinese balloons briefly transited the continental United States at least three times during the prior administration,” the statement said. The Associated Press also reported that one other balloon crossed into the U.S. earlier in the Biden administration. None of those four incursions reportedly lasted as long as the trip by the suspected spy balloon that the U.S. military shot down Saturday. And none of the other balloons were apparently blown out of the sky, though that was not immediately confirmed. In spite of the visits from possible spy balloons while Trump was in office, many Republicans have complained that President Joe Biden didn’t order the most recent balloon shot down quickly enough — or that he shouldn’t have allowed the balloon to enter U.S. airspace to begin with. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) claimed that Trump would never have allowed a Chinese spy balloon to reach the U.S. “Would Trump have let China fly a spy balloon over our country?” Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) asked on Twitter. Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told AP that Chinese surveillance balloons were sighted several times in the past five years. Some of them have been spotted near U.S. military bases in Hawaii, he said, though he did not specify when. In a message Friday on Truth Social, Trump himself joined the call for the Biden administration to destroy the most recent craft, saying: “SHOOT DOWN THE BALLOON.” But he did not discuss his own administration’s experience with suspected Chinese spy balloons. Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and likely Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley also beat up on Biden for not taking more immediate action, but likewise failed to address incidents involving balloons in the last administration.

Pakistan's former military ruler Pervez Musharraf dies
Agence France Presse/February 5, 2023
Pakistan's exiled former military ruler Pervez Musharraf, who became a key U.S. ally during the "war on terror", died in a Dubai hospital on Sunday aged 79 after a long illness. Musharraf seized power in a 1999 bloodless coup and was acting simultaneously as Pakistan's army chief, chief executive, and president when the 9/11 attacks on the United States took place. The general twice suspended the constitution and was accused of rigging a referendum shoring up his power, as well as rampant rights abuses including rounding up opponents. Nonetheless he became Washington's chief regional ally during their invasion of neighbouring Afghanistan. The decision -- made after the US issued a "for us or against us" ultimatum -- put him in the crosshairs of Islamist militants, who made several attempts on his life. But it also earned Pakistan a huge influx of foreign aid which bolstered the economy. "Pakistan's decision under Musharraf to join the war against terror turned out to be a boon," analyst Hasan Askari told AFP."He will be remembered as one who presided over Pakistan at a very critical time."
Rare illness
Musharraf had been suffering from a rare disease known as Amyloidosis and last summer his family said he had no prospect of recovery. Senior military chiefs "express heartfelt condolences on sad demise of General Pervez Musharraf", a brief statement released by the military's media wing said Saturday. "May Allah bless the departed soul and give strength to bereaved family."The four-star general died in hospital in Dubai on Sunday morning, according to media reports and a senior security official who spoke to AFP. "I can confirm that the late general breathed his last in Dubai this morning ... He is no more," the official, who asked not to be named, told AFP. A Pakistan air force source told AFP that Musharraf's body would be flown back to Pakistan on Monday. Musharraf ruled Pakistan for nearly nine years, starting when then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attempted to remove him as army chief. Many Pakistanis handed out sweets to celebrate his 1999 coup, which ended a corrupt and economically disastrous administration. But his easygoing persona failed to mask the blurring of the division between the state and army, and Musharraf fell out of favour after trying to sack the chief justice and failing to control an unravelling economy. He famously said the constitution "is just a piece of paper to be thrown in the dustbin" -- and implemented emergency rule when a bid to sack the country's chief justice sparked months of protests. After the December 2007 assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, the national mood soured even more and crushing losses suffered by his allies in the 2008 elections left him isolated.He resigned that same year and was forced into exile.
Failed return bid
Musharraf's plan to return to power in 2013 was dashed when he was disqualified from running in an election won by Nawaz Sharif -- the man he deposed in 1999. He was charged over the slaying of Bhutto and placed under house arrest as a series of cases against him were brought before the courts. In 2013 Human Rights Watch urged the government of the day to hold him accountable for "widespread and serious human rights violations" during his rule. In 2016 a travel ban was lifted and Musharraf flew to Dubai to seek medical treatment. Three years later, he was sentenced to death in absentia for treason, related to his 2007 decision to impose emergency rule. However, a court later nullified the ruling. Pakistan's President Arif Alvi prayed "for eternal rest of the departed soul and courage to the bereaved family to bear this loss," his office said in a statement.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 05-06/2023
The Iran-Israel War As Seen From Tehran
Raghida Dergham/February 05/ 2023
The Biden administration and its European partners have much reason to pause these days given the dilemma presented by the erosion of the traditional logic of Iranian-Israeli relations. The new ‘I-I’ equation has overturned the assumption that Iran and Israel would sustain the indirect truce between them, outside their rhetorical escalation and proxy wars. Isolation, sanctions, and condemnations are no longer effective tools to change the regime’s behaviour. We are now at a new threshold of what Iran and Israel’s leaders conceive as fateful and existential, something that could lead to surprises unforeseen in the previous logic once used to forecast the future.
Iran’s military leaders appear to have started consultations with their allies regarding the scenario of a direct war with Israel, which would reportedly be instigated by Iran and would go beyond responding to Israel’s provocations and attacks inside Iran. These allies include North Korea, which is ready to support Tehran. However, Russia, another ally of Iran, is not keen to back reckless scenarios such as a direct Iranian war seeking to destroy Israel before it can respond.
Russia does not want to lose its Iranian ally in the Ukraine war and relies on Iran in Syria where it has entrusted it to preserve the regime of Bashar al-Assad. But Moscow does not want to become directly involved in backing the scenario of the pre-emptive war that Iranian military circles are discussing to destroy Israel. Moscow may offer a little backing, but it will hold back on a full alliance in such a scenario.
According to sources close to the Iranian military’s thinking, Iran is feeling extremely confident in its abilities. It is confident it will not need military assistance from Russia or other allies, and believes it can alone destroy the entire infrastructure of Israel.
A key question here is whether Iran’s leaders are leaking threats and exaggerated claims by way of bluffing, to cover up their structural weakness and fear of total collapse. Yet it is prudent not to ignore Iran’s messaging, and better to scrutinize the logic pursued by Tehran’s rulers, as well as the military capabilities of Iran and Israel.
According to a source close to the thinking in Tehran, the regime’s men are resolved that the future of Iran and the survival of its regime require the destruction of Israel. For them, it is now an existential issue. The source said that the regime’s men believe the time is now right to shape Iran’s future, which necessitates the destruction of Israel in their view. They believe the preoccupation with the war in Ukraine will tie the hands of the United States and the Europeans, and that the swiftness of Iran’s military operations will astonish the world and open a new chapter in the history of the Islamic Republic, upending the dire straits it currently finds itself in.
The logic of the regime’s men is based on the following components: First, there is a need to change the rules of the game after it has become clear that there is no possibility for a quick return to the nuclear negotiations, and therefore, the goal of lifting sanctions on Iran. Indeed, the Vienna talks option is off the table, and the regime’s men have little incentive for self-control and balanced and restrained regional behaviour. The Iranian leadership has in fact convened this week and decided that Iran will no longer wait and see and that it reserves the right to change its behaviour and upend the rules of the game it had played by during the Vienna talks.
Second, the Iranian leadership believes that engineering a major crisis is the only way to put pressure on the United States, Europe, and Israel. It believes that returning the spotlight on Iran’s military capabilities will force Washington and the European capitals to think of compromises instead of going on the offensive against the Iranian regime.
The Iranian regime holds the United States, the Europeans, and Israel responsible for ruining its project for economic renaissance based on sanctions relief that would have followed the revival of the nuclear deal. The regime had a ten-year project to repair and grow the Iranian economy. Today, it is blaming these states for destroying this project and causing a devastating downturn in Iran.
Third, Iran’s military leaders claim to be able to launch operations against Israel and create a situation that would force the United States and Europe to come to Iran begging it to stop its attacks. These leaders are certain Europe will not rush to help Israel, and that the United States will also not risk getting involved in a costly military adventure on the side of Israel.
Beyond America’s fears of direct military involvement against Iran, there would also be nuclear considerations and others linked to the war in Ukraine in the balance. The United States and Europe continue to explore ways to break Iran apart from Russia especially in the Ukrainian context – something that could benefit Iran’s manoeuvres, although it does not appear at all to be willing to move away from its strategic alliance with Russia.
The divorce between the Europeans and Iran appears to be final. The Europeans no longer yield to Iran and its demands, or defend and advocate on its behalf, after Iran entered a military alliance with Russia in a war that Europe considers to be aimed against it. But the divorce has implications that worry the Europeans, especially in terms of activities Iran had pledged to stop pursuing in the European continent. Today, there no longer are any agreements or restrains on Iran’s adventures in the European arena.
More importantly, Iran’s leaders are certain that there is no American, European, or Israeli comprehension of the real depth of Iran’s nuclear program, and that the options available to the United States, Europe, and Israel are limited.
Iran’s leaders believe that the United States is unable to become involved in joint military operations with Israel against Iranian nuclear reactors. Furthermore, they believe that the United States would not become involved even if Iran were to launch pre-emptive strikes that devastate Israel.
Where is all this self-confidence coming from? Is it a bluff to cover up fear and weakness? Or are these reasonable calculations given the current global landscape that has been profoundly changed by the war in Ukraine?
What Tehran has realized is that the status quo at home and in the external space is unbearable. Therefore, the regime must flex its muscles to save itself. In other words, Iran has decided that the status quo is more dangerous for the regime than a grand military adventure. The Iranian leadership has deduced it can win in a one-on-one conflict with Israel especially since – in its view – the United States will not intervene, while no one wants a war in the region beyond the I-I equation.
Some military experts are talking about a technological war rather than a conventional one. This is where there are different assessments between those who heed the rhetoric of the Iranian regime and those who have deep knowledge of US-Israeli military ties and America’s military-technology edge.
Those who buy into the Iranian logic claim that Iran has enough advanced missiles and drones to carry out a series of strikes on Israel, overwhelming it and its allies. One source of Iran’s military resilience, they say, is that Iran is able to absorb retaliatory strikes and handle material damages and losses in lives.
They claim that Tehran’s main goal will be to paralyze Israel’s defence systems and Israel’s ability to retaliate. Moreover, not all of Iran’s nuclear facilities are known to Israel and other adversaries. Therefore, according to this logic, Iran will be able to achieve its goals: Destroy Israel and impose its conditions on the United States and Europe, or threaten them with serious nuclear consequences.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces multiple domestic crises and the possibility of a third Palestinian intifada. His provocative policies are not supported neither by the United States nor by the Europeans. He is trying to obtain US guarantees for participation in or air cover for military operations he believes can neutralize Iran’s nuclear program. But so far, there are no indications his efforts have succeeded.
All this reinforces the conviction by Iran and its allies that while Israel may be able to defend itself, it is unable to carry out major strikes against Iran. According to their thinking, Iran is now more technologically advanced than Israel. However, this is not necessarily a correct conclusion.
What will Iran need from its regional allies here? More than anything, Iran will need to use Syria’s territory, an important staging ground adjacent to Israel. It will need Hamas’s short-range rockets. Hezbollah’s missiles will also be beneficial, but maybe not for the first strike which Iran’s leaders claim could be decisive, a technological blitz.
What about the military and financial measures taken by the Biden administration to break up the Shia Crescent, whether through military operations in Al-Bukamal or financial measures to stem the flow of cash from Iraq to Iran? What about Israel’s covert operations inside Iran, which undermine Iran’s claims that the regime is impervious to infiltration?
The pro-Iran camp say, arrogantly, that these are “only a mosquito bite to an elephant”.
Finally, when do the leaders of the Islamic Republic intend to shock and awe the world and the region with their touted pre-emptive technological blitz that lasts a day or two, and that neutralizes Israel’s ability to retaliate? The answer they put forward is this: The time has not yet come, but it is coming, within a few months, not more than three…because this is what the nuclear timetable requires.

Biden Cannot Delay Sending Tanks to Ukraine
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/February 05/2023
From the outset of the conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin has calculated that Western support for Ukraine would eventually wane. And, with the Russians reported to be preparing a new spring offensive, any sign of hesitancy by Washington in terms of supporting Ukraine will encourage Putin in the belief that he will meet no meaningful resistance from the Western alliance....
The Ukrainian military says it is in desperate need of the heavy armour if it is to withstand a new offensive.
The Pentagon, which has been lukewarm about supplying the tanks from the outset, says the delays are due to the fact that it will need to purchase new Abrams tanks to supply Ukraine because the Defense Department doesn't have any available spares, which seems remarkable given that the US Army and US Marine Corps currently operate nearly 5,000 Abrams.
The [F-16 fighter jets], just like the tanks, are deemed essential if the Ukrainian military is to stand any chance of withstanding a new Russian offensive. The supply of Western fighters such as the F-16 would significantly enhance Ukraine's war-fighting capability, and would send a strong message to Putin that the West remains committed to ensuring Ukraine ultimately declares victory over Russia.
As with so many other issues relating to Ukraine, the Biden administration finds itself unable to reach any firm decision about whether or not to accede to Kyiv's request....
As with the tanks request, it has been left to European politicians to increase the pressure on the Biden administration to respond positively to the Ukraine request for fighter jets, with former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson making a direct appeal for Washington to supply warplanes during his recent visit to the US."The faster Putin gets out of Ukraine and the quicker we return to stability and the more powerful the message we send to people like China that the West – America, the U.K. – will not tolerate aggressive attempts to change borders by force," Johnson said.
Certainly, the Biden administration's constant dithering over its military support for Ukraine is not only demoralising for the brave Ukrainian forces fighting to protect their country from Russian tyranny. It also encourages Putin in the belief that, despite the significant losses he has suffered during the past year, he can ultimately achieve victory.
The Ukrainian military says it is in desperate need of the heavy armour if it is to withstand the new offensive the Russians are said to be planning to launch later this month. Any sign of hesitancy by Washington in terms of supporting Ukraine will encourage Putin in the belief that he will meet no meaningful resistance from the Western alliance. Pictured: Ukrainian soldiers operate a T-64 tank in the Donetsk region of Ukraine on February 4, 2023. The Soviet-era T-64 tank has been in service nearly 60 years. (Photo by Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images)
President Joe Biden may feel that, by finally authorising the shipment of American tanks to Ukraine, he has demonstrated that he remains committed to the Ukrainian cause. But given the time it will take for the tanks to arrive in Ukraine, it could well prove to be an empty gesture.
Furthermore, with the White House resisting Ukrainian requests for F-16 fighter jets to protect the tanks, Biden risks sending mixed messages about just how committed his administration is to supporting Kyiv in its fight against the Russian invaders.
From the outset of the conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin has calculated that Western support for Ukraine would eventually wane. And, with the Russians reported to be preparing a new spring offensive, any sign of hesitancy by Washington in terms of supporting Ukraine will encourage Putin in the belief that he will meet no meaningful resistance from the Western alliance as he maintains his barbaric assault against the Ukrainian people.
Biden's commitment to supply Ukraine with 31 Abrams M1 main battle tanks was only forthcoming after an unseemly wrangle erupted between the US and key European allies about acceding to Kyiv's request to be supplied with 300 tanks.
The Ukrainian military says it is in desperate need of the heavy armour if it is to withstand the new offensive the Russians are said to be planning to launch later this month to recover the territorial losses they suffered in last year's disastrous military campaign.
The Ukrainian request met with a mixed response at a summit of donor nations at the US Air Force's Ramstein Air Base in Germany last month, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz refusing to authorise the supply of German-made Leopard 2 tanks over concerns it would escalate tensions further with Moscow.
While other European Nato states such as Poland are willing to commit scores of their Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Berlin, which previously has enjoyed close ties with Moscow, has been less enthusiastic, and insisted it would only approve the transfer if Biden followed suit by committing American tanks.
Biden's authorisation to supply American Abrams tanks was therefore only taken as a result of the pressure he came under from other European allies, such as Britain, which were keen to provide Kyiv with the military support it requires to achieve victory over Russia. As a consequence, Germany has lifted its ban, and Ukraine now stands to receive around 130 tanks from its American and European allies, well below the 300 figure the Ukrainians initially requested.
While Biden's decision to provide the tanks was initially hailed as a major breakthrough in efforts to support the Ukrainian military, concerns have now arisen about the length of time it will actually take for the promised tanks to arrive. Some US military experts estimate that the tanks might not arrive in Ukraine until the end of this year or early 2024, by which time it could be too late to help the Ukrainian military thwart any new Russian offensive.
The Pentagon, which has been lukewarm about supplying the tanks from the outset, says the delays are due to the fact that it will need to purchase new Abrams tanks to supply Ukraine because the Defense Department doesn't have any available spares, which seems remarkable given that the US Army and US Marine Corps currently operate nearly 5,000 Abrams.
Concerns about the Biden administration's commitment to the Ukrainian cause, moreover, have deepened after Biden denied Kyiv's latest request for F-16 fighter jets.
The warplanes, just like the tanks, are deemed essential if the Ukrainian military is to stand any chance of withstanding a new Russian offensive. To date, the Ukrainians have had to rely for their air defense needs on their ageing fleet of Soviet-era MiG fighters. The supply of Western fighters such as the F-16 would significantly enhance Ukraine's war-fighting capability, and would send a strong message to Putin that the West remains committed to ensuring Ukraine ultimately declares victory over Russia.
As with so many other issues relating to Ukraine, the Biden administration finds itself unable to reach any firm decision about whether or not to accede to Kyiv's request for fighter jets. While the president himself has indicated he will not support the move, senior administration officials have indicated that no firm policy decisions on the issue have been taken.
In an interview with MSNBC, deputy national security adviser Jon Finer said the U.S. would be discussing fighter jets "very carefully" with Kyiv and its allies. "We have not ruled in or out any specific systems," he added.
As with the tanks request, it has been left to European politicians to increase the pressure on the Biden administration to respond positively to the Ukraine request for fighter jets, with former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson making a direct appeal for Washington to supply warplanes during his recent visit to the US. Appearing on Fox News, Johnson, who has been one of Europe's more prominent cheerleaders for Ukraine, called on Western powers, including the US and Britain, to supply Ukraine with the military hardware it needs to rebuff Russia.
"The faster Putin gets out of Ukraine and the quicker we return to stability and the more powerful the message we send to people like China that the West – America, the U.K. – will not tolerate aggressive attempts to change borders by force," Johnson said.
Certainly, the Biden administration's constant dithering over its military support for Ukraine is not only demoralising for the brave Ukrainian forces fighting to protect their country from Russian tyranny. It also encourages Putin in the belief that, despite the significant losses he has suffered during the past year, he can ultimately achieve victory. *Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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A Frightening Lack of Seriousness
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 05/2023
We are facing two international cases that show a shocking and frightening lack of seriousness and disrespect for international laws and regulations, and confirm that the world is changing and is even sliding into dangerous crises, from Asia to Europe and even the United States. The first case is the Iranian response to the report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which criticized Iran for making an unannounced change in linking two clusters of advanced machines enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, close to weapons grade. Although the United States, Britain, France and Germany issued a joint statement, denouncing Iran’s failure to fulfill its obligations, Tehran responded to the dangerous report by saying that the IAEA inspector made a mistake in providing the correct “interpretation”!
The second case, the Chinese balloon that hovered over American airspace. As China admitted the event, its foreign ministry said that some “politicians and the media in the United States used the incident as a pretext to attack China and tarnish its image.” Beijing issued a statement expressing regret and blaming the wind for pushing what it described as a civilian balloon into American airspace.
Nonetheless, this is a serious crisis, in terms of the timing, whether for the two countries’ relations, or the situation in the United States itself.
Therefore, the situation requires seriousness, not sensitivity. It also necessitates the formation of a cell to deal with a crisis that is dangerous for the two countries and the whole world, from Asia to the United States, passing through Europe itself. The Old Continent is in fact witnessing a war that has not yet been addressed with the required seriousness and rationality.
This frivolous conduct does not only apply to the previous two cases, but is also seen in our region. Take a simple example of what is happening in Lebanon, and even Syria, where the murderer and the murdered rush to demand an investigation and justice.
Specialized courts or bodies are formed to look into an assassination, or a major crime, such as the use of chemical weapons in Syria, or the Beirut port explosion, before declarations are later made that the evidence and the crime have been politicized!
We have seen many examples of this. Despite the ongoing crimes and criminal acts, justice is demanded and later, hollowed out. Justice is not applied and its outcome is ignored. Politics is used to cover the crime, for the sake of mere political gains.
True, the world is not such a virtuous place, particularly on the political level. But the increasing lack of seriousness, which is now remarkably noticeable, is dangerous, and reflects uncertainty in how countries deal with the crises facing the world.
All of this portends instability and the eruption of wars that will harm the whole world – a world that has not yet recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic, nor the war in Ukraine, and is unable today to withstand a third crisis. This is not a pessimistic picture, but an analysis of a world that has become more prone to clashes and irrationality, from the Iranian crisis and the actions of the mullahs to the war in Ukraine and the Sino-American tension, as well as Washington’s approach to all of this. There is an apparent lack of seriousness.

Reforming Regimes Must Precede Greening
Najib Saab/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 05/2023
A recent international report placed Lebanon among top countries that have made progress in switching to solar energy to produce electricity, by increasing capacity exponentially within three years. Some considered this an international recognition of a great national success, overlooking the fact that such sporadic single solutions do not solve communal problems of the public, and do not prevent states from collapsing. This corresponds to the announcement of random 'green' initiatives worth billions in other Arab countries, most of which failed to deliver the promised results, and did not stop the terrible economic collapse. It is fair to ask whether the real problem is in the economy and the system as a whole, or in the 'green' alternative component.
The answer to this question requires a careful analysis of the situation in each country. It is imperative that individual initiatives and private sector contributions, important as they are, do not lead to general results that are sustainable and benefit all people, unless they are part of a comprehensive national plan. The erroneous and unproductive policies of governments are capable of erasing the potential benefits of all individual initiatives. Those who believe that it is possible to build a real economy through auxiliary initiatives, based in countries governed by crumbling public institutions, are disillusioned and daydreaming at best. The only beneficiaries in these cases are a group of those who know which side the bread is buttered. The obvious facts confirm that those Arab countries suffering from bankruptcy, with the majority of their population living below the poverty line, are the same ones that are home to some of the richest individuals, most of whom accumulated their money from illegal sources, by exploiting the loopholes of chaos and arbitrary policies.
Going back to the Lebanese "greening" model, we find that sharing the benefits of monopolies and exclusive privileges prevented real change, as in renewable energy. During two decades of futile discussions, successive governments were unable to pass a law to connect solar electricity produced on rooftops to the public grid. While the arguments to delay action centered around bogus claims, such as technical obstacles, the actual motive was always to protect the monopolies of companies that had exclusive rights, for decades, to buy electricity produced by public plants, at prices below the real cost, and sell it to consumers with a large profit margin. With the complete collapse of public electrical services in the country, the monopolies shifted to a handful of communal generator operators, who supply consumers with limited electrical energy in exchange for exorbitant fees. While public administrations and some environmental groups wasted time for years measuring air pollution, from the chimney of a restaurant here and a wood stove there, in a scandalous waste of millions of grants and loans, dilapidated power stations and private generators, operating on the dirtiest types of polluting fuel, continued to spew their toxins in the midst of crowded neighborhoods.
Amid this utter chaos, which ended with a complete blackout, coinciding with the bankruptcy of the state that squandered people's deposits for the benefit of a small corrupt minority, few who could afford it resorted to solar power. Only those who were financially able were forced to install photovoltaic solar panels on their roofs as a last resort, while the majority remained in the dark. That was done out of necessity and not to protect the environment, by using the small amount of cash some people were able to rescue from their squandered deposits, or via donations from family members abroad. And because solar energy was required to cover most of their electricity consumption, as a main source not an auxiliary one, they had to install mostly obsolete storage batteries, to be used in the absence of enough sunlight. This is an unusual and very expensive process, as generating electricity from independent solar panels, not connected to the grid, is only suitable and economic for remote areas where there is no distribution grid. The primary use in these cases is for communication centers and public services such as water pumping, where the solar panel and battery solution is less expensive than extending the public network, or for basic needs of remote cottages.
While people deprived of electricity in Yemen and Syria installed small solar panels with limited capacity, to light a lamp, charge a phone and a cheap battery, or operate a small refrigerator in the best cases, most of the installations in Lebanon aim to obtain electrical supply to operate all appliances and lights for most of the time; this contradicts the basic principles of efficiency and environmental protection. An economically sound operation requires connecting private domestic electricity production to the public grid, where operators buy surplus production during the day to reduce the load of their plants, and sell electricity from their traditional stations to consumers at other times. Some countries, like Belgium, moved to a second level which requires the installation of efficient storage batteries together with solar panels on private roofs; only surplus production, after instant private consumption and fully charging the batteries, is fed to the public grid. This measure is soon expected to become the norm, combining clean energy and efficiency, while protecting the public grid from overflow, due to fast growth of installations.
As for the Lebanese solution, which some considered an achievement, it is in fact no more than an ad-hoc measure that cannot be sustained. This is because the batteries do not last for more than two years, they cause dangerous pollution when disposed of, and the need for electricity supplied by traditional sources will continue, in the dark days of winter or when consumption exceeds the storage capacity of the batteries. This means that toxic emissions from private generators and public power plants, which use the worst types of fuels, will persist. It would have been more appropriate for the international organizations to support the installation of solar panels and batteries to operate basic public services, such as communications and water stations, which fail regularly due to lack of power on the grid.
A few months ago, I heard an international official praise the support provided by his organization during the past ten years to the Central Bank as well as commercial banks in an Arab country, dedicated for loans to finance "environmentally friendly" projects. He was not amused when I pointed out that banks in that country were actually, at the time, providing consumer loans to individuals - one of which was intended for plastic surgery - or they were lending customer deposits to a bankrupt treasury to waste on a failing public sector and finance corruption, instead of financing productive projects. Since that time, commercial banks have collapsed along with the Central Bank, for obvious reasons which needed to be addressed before granting "green loans", which disappeared along with the rest of deposits.
The economic collapse that some countries in the region are witnessing is not surprising, except perhaps for those who refused to see the facts as they were or for the corrupt cliques who imagined that deception could perpetuate indefinitely. This should be a lesson for those who have been talking about investing in the environment and greening the economy, in isolation from the prevailing economic, political and social conditions. It is not possible to build a "green economy" in the absence of the correct foundations and principles of an economy in the first place, because this undermines both environmental and economic concepts. It is also not possible to build viable economic, environmental and social policies and plans in the absence of sound political, military and security foundations. Reforming policies and public systems must precede greening them.
*Najib Saab is Secretary General of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development- AFED and Editor-in-Chief of Environment & Development magazine.

Clipping the wings of Iran and its militias
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Arab News/February 05, 2023
The recent drone attack on an Iranian military compound in Isfahan was not the first of its kind and is unlikely to be the last. It was one of many that have hit Iranian arms depots and convoys across the region, including in Syria and Lebanon. Just hours after the Jan. 29 attack in Iran, for example, trucks that had crossed from Iraq into Syria were also reportedly attacked with drones. While many see these strikes as part of an undeclared war on Iran’s nuclear program, they should be viewed more as a regional counterterrorism effort.
Israel has rarely admitted carrying out these attacks, but it is widely understood that it is behind them and that the goal is to prevent Iran from building up the asymmetric war capabilities of its militias. According to US law, “premeditated, politically motivated, violence,” committed by “subnational groups (militias) against noncombatants,” are acts of terrorism. This legal definition makes it hard to argue against the fact that Israel is helping combat terrorism across the Middle East.
Iran, for its part, seems to have been too embarrassed to admit the extent of the damage these strikes have caused. Tehran has downplayed them, while its militias have often denied that they even took place.
In Syria, Bashar Assad’s weak grip on power has forced Israel to act with a high frequency to prevent Iran from building a military infrastructure in Syria’s southwest — a region that shares a border with Israel. At first, the Assad regime tried to hide the Israeli strikes, mainly through claiming that the explosions were caused by an electrical short circuit, an explanation that invited widespread sarcasm. As it became known that Israel was targeting Iranian militias in Syria, the Assad regime stopped commenting. Israel, for its part, started to open up about the strikes, without elaborating on any one of them in particular.
In Lebanon, things are different. Iran-backed Hezbollah rules with an iron fist and an overt Israeli strike might ignite a full-scale war that neither side wants. Hence, bombings targeting Hezbollah’s weapons caches have remained mysterious.
Israel has long accused Hezbollah of storing weapons in Lebanon’s civilian neighborhoods. During the 2006 war between the two sides, Israel hit Lebanese houses, saying that it was responding to spots from where Hezbollah had launched missiles.
In September 2018, Israel released photos of facilities located close to Beirut airport, where Hezbollah “converted regular missiles into precision-guided ones.” Two months later, Israel “exposed and destroyed” a series of tunnels dug “from within civilian houses in Lebanon into Israel.” These were the only times when Israel talked publicly about Hezbollah’s military sites, until December, when Israel threatened “to strike the Beirut airport over Iran’s arms shipments.”
In September 2020, a weapons depot exploded in the southern Lebanese village of Ain Qana. The pro-Iran militia borrowed one of Assad’s favorite excuses, blaming an electrical short.
Iran seems to have been too embarrassed to admit the extent of the damage these strikes have caused.
Since December 2021, a series of explosions have rocked Lebanon. One was heard in Janta, a Hezbollah stronghold in the east. Two weeks later, locals near the southern village of Homin Al-Fawqa were woken by an explosion. Six days later, a bang was heard near the coastal city of Tyre.
Hezbollah reacted the same way to all these blasts. It sealed off the area, sent in its own ambulances to transport the dead and the injured to undisclosed medical facilities, and invented cover stories. In Homin Al-Fawqa, Hezbollah said an overheated generator detonated its diesel reservoir. The last of the explosions went off last week, again in Homin Al-Fawqa, where a Hezbollah “social services” office was hit.
Hezbollah is not the only pro-Iran militia in Lebanon to see its arms caches go up in flames. In December 2021, an explosion rocked a Hamas weapons depot at the Burj Shemali Palestinian refugee camp, near Tyre. Hamas also blamed, you guessed it, an electrical short. A day later, the Palestinian organization, which is designated as a terrorist group by the US, Israel and Europe, held a funeral for its militants killed in that “short.”
Like Iran, Hezbollah has been suppressing news about explosions to avoid a war that could ravage a country that is already falling apart. The bombings have also shown that Iran and its militias are heavily infiltrated by foreign intelligence agencies and that they have been irresponsibly storing arms and ammunition in civilian neighborhoods.
Whoever has been continuously clipping the wings of the pro-Iran militias has been doing so impressively, selecting secret targets and bombing them discreetly when needed and less so when circumstances — like in Syria — permit.
Without the ongoing attacks, like the one on Isfahan and the airstrikes that followed on convoys that crossed from Iraq into Syria, pro-Iran terrorist groups would have improved their capabilities enormously. Not long ago, the US was the one that led such counterterrorism, but it has now given up on the role. Israel, or whoever is responsible for bombing Iran and its militias, has stepped up to fill the American void.
• Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
Twitter: @hahussain
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