English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 20/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Go therefore and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit
Matthew 28/16-20: “The eleven disciples went to Galilee, to the mountain to which Jesus had directed them. When they saw him, they worshipped him; but some doubted. And Jesus came and said to them, ‘All authority in heaven and on earth has been given to me. Go therefore and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, and teaching them to obey everything that I have commanded you. And remember, I am with you always, to the end of the age.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 19-20/2023
The art of funding: Nazem Ahmad's alleged connection to Hezbollah
Lebanon might have a 'consensual president' in June
Paris achieves 'major breakthrough' in KSA stance on Lebanon
Government's banking decisions: Salary increase, withdrawal caps, and equality for depositors
Settlements and sovereignty: The ongoing debate among Christians
Mikati, Mawlawi agree to set new dates for municipal elections
Paris tells Gemayel that Franjieh is 'only possible solution'
LF, opposition MPs to appeal against municipal vote delay law
Kheireddine to return to Lebanon after French 'acquittal'
Khalde’s Arab tribes block roads after Khaldeh clashes ruling
Lebanon's upcoming summer is on a date with Gulf tourists: report
Navigating challenges: How Lebanon implements salary increases for public sector employees
The art of funding: Nazem Ahmad's alleged connection to Hezbollah
Lebanon launches new application for fuel pricing

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 19-20/2023
Israel's foreign minister says visit to Saudi Arabia 'on the table'
Israel's domestic turmoil raises serious questions about its long-term survival
Webcast today from The Washington Institue: Repatriation from Northeast Syria and the Effort to Counter Violent Extremism/Ian Moss/ The Washington Institue
US imposes sanctions on network supporting Iran's drone, military programs
EU moves to contain internal quarrel over Ukrainian imports
FBI says China, Iran using new tactics to harass critics on U.S. soil
US-made Patriot guided missile systems arrive in Ukraine
US Navy sails first drone through Mideast's Strait of Hormuz
Austin hopes Turkey will act on Sweden NATO bid before July
Kremlin: South Korean arms for Ukraine would signify involvement in conflict
Germany's foreign minister: Parts of China trip 'more than shocking'
Ukraine says received first Patriot air defense systems
No respite in Sudan as truce falls apart, rivals battle
Syria's road to reintegration: Obstacles, conditions, and challenges ahead
Trudeau grilled by Poilievre over $162,000 Jamaica family trip
Oman liberalizes foreign marriage law in rare social reform

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 19-20/2023
Biden Has Abandoned the Middle East to China and Russia/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/April 19, 2023
Imperative that Sudan army emerges victorious/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/April 19/2023
Going Back to the Iraq War/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 19/2023
And Now Sudan!/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 19/2023
The West has so much to gain from a Cold War with China/Jeremy Warne/The Telegraph/April 19, 2023
Humiliated Macron is now becoming dangerous/The Telegraph/Wed, April 19/2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 19-20/2023
The art of funding: Nazem Ahmad's alleged connection to Hezbollah
LBCI/Wed, April 19, 2023
In commemoration of the 40th anniversary of the bombing of the US embassy in Beirut, the US State Department has announced a $10 million reward, through the Rewards for Justice Program, for anyone who provides information on Lebanese businessman and art collector Nazem Ahmad, whose name has been on the US sanctions list since 2019 for allegedly funding Hezbollah. Hours later, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed a series of sanctions on 52 individuals and entities in nine countries across Europe, Asia, and Africa, including Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, and South Africa. How can a person on the sanctions list carry out financial transactions that exceeded $400 million between 2020 and 2022, including $160 million through the US banking system, according to figures from the US Department of Justice? However, the list of charges alleges that Ahmad, in cooperation with a small family circle that includes his children, Firas and Hind, Rima Baker, his wife, and her brother, Rami Baker, as well as several employees and companies. Moreover, they conspired to defraud the United States by evading US sanctions and customs laws. They also engaged in money laundering transactions by buying and selling jewelry, antiques, and paintings and transferring money illegally. At the same time as the US decisions, Ahmad's accountant was arrested in the United Kingdom at the request of the United States. Furthermore, Nazem Ahmad is considered one of Africa's most important diamond traders as he raises funds through his long-standing relationships in the diamond trade in war and conflict zones. He also runs companies in Belgium, Europe, and Africa. In addition, he collects and trades paintings in his collection, which includes masterpieces by the most prominent artists throughout history, such as Pablo Picasso, Antony Gormley, and Andy Warhol.According to the US State Department, Ahmad has direct ties to several individuals who have previously been on the sanctions list for similar charges, including Kassem Tajeddine, Mohammad Bazzi, and Adham Tabaja, as well as direct relations with Hezbollah representative in Iran, Abdullah Safi Al-Din.

Lebanon might have a 'consensual president' in June
Naharnet/Wed, April 19, 2023
The five-nation group on Lebanon – which comprises the U.S., France, KSA, Qatar and Egypt – is preparing to hold a meeting to “pick a president for Lebanon from outside the establishment that took part in power over the past three decades,” a media report said. “The foreign forces are working on the election of a president who would be able to devise solutions for crises and rein in the collapse,” political sources told ad-Diyar newspaper. “The month of June will carry good news for Lebanon should the current agreements in the region succeed,” the sources added, noting that “a consensual president accepted inside and outside the country will likely be elected.”“His name has become known,” the sources went on to say.

Paris achieves 'major breakthrough' in KSA stance on Lebanon
Naharnet/Wed, April 19, 2023
A new round of Saudi-French contacts was held last week and the French managed to make a “major breakthrough” in Riyadh’s stance on the Lebanese presidential file, a media report said on Wednesday. “We have never heard from Saudi Arabia of a veto on (Suleiman) Franjieh, but today we heard a call for an open dialogue over the details of this settlement and how to finalize it in a way that makes everyone a winner,” al-Akhbar newspaper quoted Paris as telling Lebanese political forces. “Days ago, Franjieh himself received French calls that put him in the picture of the positive outcome of the latest French contacts with Saudi Arabia, with Paris calling on him to make a practical step,” the daily added. “Franjieh found that Bkirki would be the most appropriate place to deliver what can be called his nomination speech,” a move that he did make on Tuesday, al-Akhbar said, adding that Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi was pleased with what he heard from Franjieh. “Lebanon has entered a new phase and it might not take long before the full picture becomes clear,” the newspaper added, noting that “Franjieh’s chances have largely surged.”

Government's banking decisions: Salary increase, withdrawal caps, and equality for depositors
LBCI/Wed, April 19, 2023
Decisions gradually emerged from the government session that approved the salary increase. The government issued a decision requesting the Banque Du Liban to impose a cap on withdrawals available to depositors according to the circulars issued by BDL or to treat them equally among each other. Banking sources consider this step to help regulate operations in the banking sector and treat all depositors equally. Still, it is insufficient and does not protect banks from legal claims, as the circular does not replace the Capital Control Law, whose endorsement is still urgent.

Settlements and sovereignty: The ongoing debate among Christians
LBCI/Wed, April 19, 2023
The "Mikhael Daher or chaos" was the settlement that the United States orchestrated and was approved by the American envoy Richard Murphy and the Syrian president Hafez al-Assad to appoint the former minister and deputy, Mikhael Daher, as the next president of Lebanon after the end of President Amin Gemayel's term in 1988. However, the settlement did not succeed, and the elections were disrupted, just as they were today, due to the failure to achieve the required quorum in the parliament session because the former Army Commander, Michel Aoun, and the leader of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea, opposed the Murphy-Assad agreement. This is the settlement that the head of the Marada Movement referred to, which led to the deterioration of the situation and sparked wars of liberation and elimination in 1989 and 1990. In addition, the Taif Agreement, which resulted in a constitution that reduced the powers of the Maronite President and limited the influence of the opposing Christian leadership, ended the "Mikhael Daher or chaos" and placed Lebanon under Syrian mandate. From Bkerke, the presidential candidate urged his Maronite opponents to learn from their mistakes and not to repeat them because the settlement would remain ongoing. Moreover, Franjieh wanted to say from Bkerke that he was the Maronite president who guaranteed the implementation of a series of obligations, including the file of displacement, relying on his personal relationship with President Assad and defensive strategy. He also considers that he can rely on his ally, Hezbollah, who supports his nomination in order to discuss the weapons issue, whereas others do not dare. The Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) preferred not to comment on this call.

Mikati, Mawlawi agree to set new dates for municipal elections
Naharnet/Wed, April 19, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Wednesday followed up with caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi on “the preparations for holding the municipal elections based on the law issued yesterday by parliament,” the National News Agency said. “It was agreed that the Interior Minister would prepare the new and needed budget for organizing the elections so that a line of credit can be opened,” NNA added. “In light of the new budget, the Interior Minister will set new dates for the elections as per his jurisdiction,” the agency said. Parliament had on Tuesday voted to extend the terms of municipalities and local officials, paving the way to postpone municipal elections for up to a year for a second time. Some lawmakers were concerned the government wouldn't be able to secure the needed funding in time for polling. The likely delay came as Lebanon’s economy and infrastructure continue to crumble, with legislators in the deeply divided parliament unable to reach a settlement to end a presidential vacuum for almost six months. Lebanon’s municipal elections were originally slated for May last year but were postponed for a year because they coincided with parliamentary elections. Opposition and reformist groups would win additional seats if local elections were held, as living conditions across the country continue to deteriorate. They have called for municipal elections to take place as planned in May, and most have boycotted parliament’s session. Mikati's government and various major political groups in parliament, notably the Free Patriotic Movement, have accused each other of stalling the securing of funding and logistics that caused the delay.

Paris tells Gemayel that Franjieh is 'only possible solution'
Naharnet/Wed, April 19, 2023
Kataeb Party chief Sami Gemayel felt “frustrated” after his Paris meeting with French presidential adviser Patrick Durel, after he sensed that a presidential breakthrough serving the opposition’s interest has become impossible, a media report said. Sources close to Gemayel told al-Akhbar newspaper that Durel “was clear and decisive when he said that the only possible solution now was to endorse the candidate Suleiman Franjieh.” Gemayel had announced from Paris that he would return to Beirut with “the mentality of unifying efforts, the confrontation and the opposition in order to preserve Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence.”

LF, opposition MPs to appeal against municipal vote delay law
Naharnet/Wed, April 19, 2023
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea criticized Wednesday the parliament and the government for postponing the municipal elections for up to a year and said that the LF and the opposition forces will file an appeal against the municipalities' term extension law. Parliament on Tuesday had passed a law that extends municipalities' term for a second time, in a session boycotted by the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, Tajaddod and Change MPs. "Parliament could have convened to secure the needed funds for the elections, instead of convening for extending the municipalities' term," Geagea said, describing the session as a "farce" and dubbing it as "non-constitutional". As for the government, Geagea criticized the government for failing to fund the elections while it managed to spend money from Lebanon's IMF Special Drawing Rights on the ministry of health and on other issues in its session Tuesday. "The government and the MPs who attended yesterday's session are responsible of blocking the municipal elections," Geagea said. In yesterday's session, Just 65 of Lebanon's 128 lawmakers attended. Mikati's government and various major political groups in parliament, notably the Free Patriotic Movement, have accused each other of stalling the securing of funding and logistics that caused the vote delay. “If you really didn't want to postpone municipal elections, why did you attend today's session and secure a quorum?” The prime minister said at parliament in a heated dispute with several parliamentarians.

Kheireddine to return to Lebanon after French 'acquittal'
Naharnet/Wed, April 19, 2023
Al Mawarid Bank chairman and ex-Lebanese minister Marwan Kheireddine will return to Lebanon in the weekend, a media report said. “The French judiciary took a decision to release him on Tuesday after it turned out during his interrogation that there are no corruption suspicions over his activities,” Lebanon’s privately-run al-Markazia news agency reported. Earlier this month, Kheireddine was charged in France and slapped with a travel ban without being detained. Kheireddine was questioned over “his role in covering up for the money laundering crimes of the Salameh brothers and Marianne Hoayek, especially that Raja Salameh had three bank accounts at Al-Mawarid Bank that grew from $15 million in 1993 to $150 million in 2019,” al-Akhbar newspaper reported earlier in April.

Khalde’s Arab tribes block roads after Khaldeh clashes ruling
Naharnet/Wed, April 19, 2023
Members of Khalde’s Arab tribes blocked Wednesday the Khaldeh-Beirut highway, after the military court issued rulings overnight against detainees of the Khaldeh 2021 clashes. In August 2021, deadly armed clashes erupted during the funeral of a Hezbollah-linked man who was killed a night before in a vendetta shooting. The clashes left at least five people including three Hezbollah members dead. The detainees from the Ghosn, Moussa and Shahine families were sentenced from seven to ten years in prison, and 8 fugitives were sentenced to death, al-Akhbar newspaper said. Eleven defendants were acquitted and 6 others were released. Abbas Mussa and Mussa al-Ghosn were sentenced to five years of hard labor. Members of the Lebanese Army later on Wednesday reopened the blocked road, as protesters hurled stones at them.

Lebanon's upcoming summer is on a date with Gulf tourists: report
LBCI/Wed, April 19, 2023
The Lebanese are waiting for a promising summer season, which is expected to be similar to the previous summer, when expatriates arrived in large numbers after lifting travel restrictions following the decline in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and their desire to contribute to the economy in light of the difficult circumstances, to empower their families. This article was originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper Al-Anbaa. The following summer season may be exceptional because it may also bring the return of Gulf tourists to Lebanon after a break that lasted for many years.
The scene of settlements in the region indicates that the region is heading towards more calm regarding the Iranian-Gulf conflict, and this rapprochement has consequences for the tourism sector in Lebanon. The President of the Syndicate of Travel and Tourism Agencies, Jean Abboud, expressed that "the indicators of the summer season are very positive, and it is expected that the movement will be similar to that of the summer of 2022, when nearly a million and a half people arrived through the Beirut Airport, most of whom are Lebanese who do not miss an opportunity to come to Lebanon and show support." In an interview with "Al-Anbaa," Abboud revealed that the next summer season might witness the return of Gulf tourists to Lebanon following the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, and the Gulf countries may lift the "political" ban on Lebanon so that they will return to pump new blood in the expected season, along with the "traditional" tourists, such as the Iraqis, the Egyptians, and the Jordanians. Abboud expressed his optimism about the rapid pace of regional settlements and the opening of embassies and consulates, which indicates the seriousness and speed of the rapprochement taking place, which will inevitably affect Lebanon, recalling the contributions of the tourism sector to the economy a decade ago, when it reached $10 billion.

Navigating challenges: How Lebanon implements salary increases for public sector employees
LBCI/Wed, April 19, 2023
The Lebanese government has approved increases in the salaries of active and retired public sector employees. How were the increases implemented? The increases stipulated that retirees and military personnel in active service in the military ranks would receive three additional salaries on top of what they were previously receiving. This means that a military personnel whose base salary was two million LBP and had received a previous increase of three salaries would now receive a salary of 12 million LBP. It's worth noting that this amount will be paid at the current official exchange rate of 137 US dollars. The increase also granted other employees in active service in the public sector, including administrations, institutions, and municipalities, four additional salaries on top of what they previously received, with the condition of attending work for fourteen days. According to the current exchange rate, an employee who used to receive 2 million LBP will now receive 14 million LBP or 160 dollars. The government decisions also stipulated giving public sector employees 450,000 LBP as a transportation allowance for each working day. In addition to the salary increases, the government approved 450 billion LBP monthly for the State Employees' Cooperative, which deals with healthcare and medical services, and 150 billion LBP for military healthcare for the Internal Security Forces.

The art of funding: Nazem Ahmad's alleged connection to Hezbollah
LBCI/Wed, April 19, 2023
In commemoration of the 40th anniversary of the bombing of the US embassy in Beirut, the US State Department has announced a $10 million reward, through the Rewards for Justice Program, for anyone who provides information on Lebanese businessman and art collector Nazem Ahmad, whose name has been on the US sanctions list since 2019 for allegedly funding Hezbollah. Hours later, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed a series of sanctions on 52 individuals and entities in nine countries across Europe, Asia, and Africa, including Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, and South Africa. How can a person on the sanctions list carry out financial transactions that exceeded $400 million between 2020 and 2022, including $160 million through the US banking system, according to figures from the US Department of Justice?
However, the list of charges alleges that Ahmad, in cooperation with a small family circle that includes his children, Firas and Hind, Rima Baker, his wife, and her brother, Rami Baker, as well as several employees and companies. Moreover, they conspired to defraud the United States by evading US sanctions and customs laws. They also engaged in money laundering transactions by buying and selling jewelry, antiques, and paintings and transferring money illegally. At the same time as the US decisions, Ahmad's accountant was arrested in the United Kingdom at the request of the United States. Furthermore, Nazem Ahmad is considered one of Africa's most important diamond traders as he raises funds through his long-standing relationships in the diamond trade in war and conflict zones. He also runs companies in Belgium, Europe, and Africa. In addition, he collects and trades paintings in his collection, which includes masterpieces by the most prominent artists throughout history, such as Pablo Picasso, Antony Gormley, and Andy Warhol. According to the US State Department, Ahmad has direct ties to several individuals who have previously been on the sanctions list for similar charges, including Kassem Tajeddine, Mohammad Bazzi, and Adham Tabaja, as well as direct relations with Hezbollah representative in Iran, Abdullah Safi Al-Din.

Lebanon launches new application for fuel pricing
LBCI/Wed, April 19, 2023
Lebanon's Minister of Energy and Water in the caretaker government, Walid Fayad, launched "Lebanon Fuel Price," a new application for fuel pricing.
During a meeting in the presence of stakeholders in the sector, Fayyad said that the application includes the prices of 95-octane gasoline, 98-octane gasoline, diesel oil, and gas, pointing out that this step is a new and advanced stage of the fuel sector's march that started since the government assumed its duties in September 2021.  He emphasized that the indirect support that was affecting the fuel sector in Lebanon by fixing the rate of the US dollar at LBP 1,500 made the treasury lose huge annual sums without necessarily targeting the poor and people with limited income, adding that after the exchange rate of the currency collapsed, the fuel subsidy to keep it below the high ceilings became very costly, emptying the country of hard currency. Fayad declared, "In light of this reality, we in the ministry started a process of gradually raising subsidies on fuel "dollars" until we reached the complete removal of this subsidy, and prices became directly linked to the global oil price on the one hand, and the price of the dollar in the market on the other hand." He explained that these measures saved more than 300 million US dollars a month from depleting the reserves of Banque du Liban and eliminated queues in front of gas stations, noting that the large fluctuations witnessed by the currency market and the rise or fall of the US dollar exchange rate had adverse effects on companies, distributors, gas stations, and citizen, which prompted the need to issue the prices several times a week, and then several times a day now.
The Energy Minister also stressed that this matter led, after consulting with those concerned in the sector and after taking the opinion of the supervisory authorities in the state, such as the State Shura Council and others, they decided to prepare an easy and transparent electronic application that could be accessible to everyone, which simplifies pricing procedures for management through rapid response. This application helps companies, distributors, and stations to maintain their legal profit margin, and most importantly, it enables the citizen to see the prices directly and facilitates their affairs. He reaffirmed the commitment of the Ministry of Energy and Water to the principle of absolute transparency, whether in terms of openness and total cooperation with the judiciary or in terms of informing and involving public opinion in everything related to how pricing is issued for private generators through the ministry's website, or, as today, fuel pricing through the electronic application, Lebanon Fuel Price.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 19-20/2023
Israel's foreign minister says visit to Saudi Arabia 'on the table'
JERUSALEM (Reuters)/Wed, April 19, 2023
Israel's Foreign Minister Eli Cohen on Wednesday held out the prospect of a visit in the future to Saudi Arabia, and said at least one more Arab country would normalise ties with Israel this year. "This (visit to Saudi Arabia) is on the table, there is no date yet," he said, speaking to Israel's Army Radio during a state visit to Azerbaijan. In 2020, Israel reached accords to normalise ties with Saudi Arabia's Gulf neighbours, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain and later included Morocco in the so-called Abraham Accords. It has made no secret of its desire for closer ties with Saudi Arabia, which has held back on formally recognising Israel in the absence of a resolution to Palestinian statehood goals. Earlier this week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said normalisation with Riyadh would be a "giant step" towards ending the Arab-Israeli conflict. Cohen said that this year at least one more country would join the Abraham Accords, without elaborating. He added that the issue of normalising relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia came up during U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham's meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman this week. "The enemy of Saudi Arabia is certainly not Israel. Its enemy is Iran," Cohen said on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia and Iran ended years of hostility following a China-brokered agreement in March. When asked about the restoration of ties between Riyadh and Tehran, Cohen said that such a development could bode well for Israel. "It is precisely this thing that can lead to a balancing act of (Saudi Arabia) moving closer to Israel," he said. Earlier on Wednesday, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Jeddah where the two discussed the situation in the occupied Palestinian territories, Palestinian WAFA news agency reported.

Israel's domestic turmoil raises serious questions about its long-term survival
The Conversation Canada/Daniel L. Douek, Faculty Lecturer, International Relations, McGill University/Wed, April 19, 2023
In late 2022, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won Israel’s fifth election in the past three years by forming a coalition with far-right religious extremists whose ilk were previously considered beyond the pale in Israeli politics.
Netanyahu’s coalition recently introduced legislation to overhaul Israel’s Supreme Court, aiming to eliminate the court’s ability to impose democratic checks on elected leaders. The overhaul, which would also protect Netanyahu from pending corruption charges, provoked an unprecedented wave of anti-government protests across Israel that have shaken the country’s political and economic foundations. The protests included threats by combat personnel from Israel’s air force and special forces units to boycott their reserve duty.
Defense minister reinstated
In response, Netanyahu temporarily shelved the legislation, candidly admitting that he wished to avoid “civil war.”Netanyahu also reinstated Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, whom he had fired for publicly calling on him to end the judicial overhaul because the internal divisions it caused made Israel vulnerable to external threats. On one level, the widespread protests against governmental overreach represent an indicator of Israeli democracy’s robustness. But as a country that considers itself beset by external enemies, Israel has only a slim margin for internal division. The gulf between the protesters and Netanyahu’s coalition reflect the deepening fault line between secular and religious Jews. And despite Netanyahu’s backtracking, Israel’s ability to deter its enemies has already been weakened by wounds that are self-inflicted.
Ramadan attacks
In early April 2023, during the holy month of Ramadan, Israeli police raided Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest site in Islam. The site has been under Israeli control since 1967 and has increasingly become a place of resistance to Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories.
Israeli forces were caught on camera using brutal force to subdue worshippers in a video that quickly went viral globally.
lem during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
Islamist militant group Hamas responded by firing a barrage of rockets at Israel from Gaza. Another was fired from Lebanon, where Hamas has a foothold under the patronage of Hezbollah, the strongest of Iran’s various proxy militias across the Middle East.
When militant attacks then killed several civilians inside Israel and the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Hamas called this a “natural response” to Israeli forces’ actions at Al-Aqsa. This was followed by another barrage of rockets fired at Israel from Syria, where Iran, Hezbollah and other Iranian-aligned militias all have forces deployed near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
Self-inflicted wounds
These rocket salvos caused minimal casualties. Many rockets were shot down by Israeli air defences, and Israel then launched retaliatory strikes. Yet the rockets nevertheless caught Israel’s political and defence establishment off-balance. Afterward, a former chief of Israel’s military intelligence branch warned that the damage inflicted to Israel’s national security by Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul might be “irreversible.”Another former senior defence official said Israel’s enemies are “rubbing their eyes in disbelief” about the domestic turmoil and wondering whether the country “has decided to die by suicide.”
During a special Ramadan address, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei exulted in the alarm of Israeli political elites over Netanyahu’s overhaul, noting that Israel’s “own officials continuously warn that their collapse is nearing.” Khamenei concluded that Israel’s demise was unfolding even faster than he had anticipated. In recent years, Khamenei’s Islamic Revolutionary regime has itself been rocked by widespread anti-government protests, raising questions about its own survival.
Testing Israeli defences
But after weathering the protests and a United States-led economic boycott, the Iranian regime’s fortunes appear to have turned. Iran has won its bet in Syria. Its military intervention alongside Russia has kept Bashar al-Assad’s regime in power, keeping open a conduit for weapons transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran’s recent renewal of diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia, brokered by China, has crippled Saudi Arabia’s young alliance with Israel while eclipsing U.S. influence in the Middle East.This has emboldened Iran to test Israel’s internal cohesion and resolve. Hamas’s deployment in Lebanon and its ability to fire rockets from Lebanese soil, along with rocket fire from Gaza and Syria, shows Iran’s assorted proxy forces are testing Israel’s defences. The far-right swing in Israeli politics is inseparable from Israel’s police brutality at Al-Aqsa. Amid its ongoing occupation of Palestinian territories, the worsening tensions between Israel’s secular and religious Jewish blocs have blown wide open. Meanwhile, as Netanyahu’s coalition injects virulent extremism into Israel’s political mainstream, a reprise of the deadly violence between Arab and Jewish citizens that exploded across Israel in May 2021 seems inevitable.
Israel’s current internal tumult is far greater than at any other moment in its history. As many Israeli analysts have already noted, this raises serious questions about the country’s long-term survival.
This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. Like this article? Subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
It was written by: Daniel L. Douek, McGill University.
*Daniel L. Douek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Webcast today from The Washington Institue: Repatriation from Northeast Syria and the Effort to Counter Violent Extremism
Ian Moss/ The Washington Institue/April 19, 2023
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/repatriation-northeast-syria-and-effort-counter-violent-extremism
April 19, 2023
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Ian Moss serves as Deputy Coordinator for Countering Violent Extremism and Terrorist Detentions at the State Department’s Bureau of Counterterrorism.
Brief Analysis
Part of a series: Counterterrorism Lecture Series
or see Part 1: U.S. Efforts against Terrorism Financing: A View from the Private Sector
Join us for a live webcast featuring the State Department Bureau of Counterterrorism's Ian Moss. Watch live starting at 2:00 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday, April 19, 2023.
For this latest virtual event in The Washington Institute’s Counterterrorism Lecture Series, State Department official Ian Moss will provide updates on the successful and ongoing efforts to repatriate foreign terrorist fighters and displaced persons from northeast Syria, including recent moves by Norway and Canada. He will also share an overview of U.S. efforts to counter violent extremism globally, comparing Islamist and racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists and highlighting key components of resilient communities.
Watch a live webcast of this event starting at 2:00 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday, April 19, 2023.
Ian Moss serves as Deputy Coordinator for Countering Violent Extremism and Terrorist Detentions at the State Department’s Bureau of Counterterrorism. In this capacity, he is responsible for managing diplomatic efforts associated with foreign transfers of custody, the detention and repatriation of terrorists and terrorism suspects, and initiatives to rehabilitate and reintegrate former extremists. Additionally, he is responsible for developing and implementing a range of policies to counter racially or ethnically motivated violent extremism, to combat terrorist use of the internet, and to prevent terrorist recruitment and radicalization to violence. The Policy Forum series is made possible through the generosity of the Florence and Robert Kaufman Family.

US imposes sanctions on network supporting Iran's drone, military programs
WASHINGTON (Reuters)/Wed, April 19, 2023
The United States on Wednesday imposed sanctions on a procurement network it accused of supporting Iran's drone and military programs, targeting companies and suppliers in China, Iran and elsewhere in the fresh action aimed at increasing pressure on Tehran. The U.S. Treasury Department in a statement said it imposed sanctions on the head of Iran’s Pardazan System Namad Arman (PASNA), which was already under U.S. sanctions, and the entity's front companies and suppliers in Iran, Malaysia, Hong Kong and China that Washington said have enabled PASNA's procurement of goods and technology. It marks the latest move by Washington targeting Iran's unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) industry. "The network sanctioned today has procured goods and technology for the Iranian government and its defense industry and UAV program," the Treasury's Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian Nelson, said in the statement. "Treasury will continue to enforce its sanctions against Iran’s military procurement efforts that contribute to regional insecurity and global instability." Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Treasury targeted the managing director of PASNA, accusing him of being responsible for the company's sanctions evasion efforts. It said he used front companies to seek a variety of electronic components from suppliers based primarily in China. Three China-based suppliers of PASNA were also targeted in Wednesday's action alongside a Hong Kong-based company, a Malaysia-based front company and one based in Iran. The move freezes any U.S. assets of those hit with sanctions and generally bars Americans from dealing with them. Those that engage in certain transactions with them also risk being hit by sanctions. The latest U.S. move against Iran comes as efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal have stalled and ties between the Islamic Republic and the West became increasingly strained as Iran's security forces violently put down the protests following the death of a Kurdish woman in the custody of the morality police last September.

EU moves to contain internal quarrel over Ukrainian imports
BRUSSELS (AP)/Wed, April 19, 2023
The European Union moved Wednesday to contain an internal quarrel over some member nations temporarily banning imports of Ukrainian farm produce, trade embargoes that threatened to highlight divisions within a bloc that desperately wants to show unity with Ukraine as it confronts Russia.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote a letter to the leaders of Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Bulgaria with a set of proposals that she said "responds specifically to the concerns of front-line member states and stakeholders, including farmers, and will allow us to react even quicker in the future."The letter acknowledged the issues that farmers encountered after the EU lifted duties on Ukrainian grain to ease exports when Russia's war in Ukraine choked off shipments through traditional routes. Relaxing the tariffs led to unintended export surges and, as a result, lower prices that cut into farmers' incomes. The European Commission's proposals, which were to be further worked out during talks later Wednesday, build on an initial support package of 56.3 million euros for the most affected farmers in the front-line countries with the possibility of a second package of 100 million euros. The EU is also preparing more technical measures to keep the concerns of farmers from turning into a geopolitical problem that would make the EU look weak and divided as Russia continues to occupy large swaths of neighboring Ukraine. Bulgaria on Wednesday became the latest European country to temporarily ban imports of Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products, excluding goods in transit that are destined for export to other countries. Hungary, Poland and Slovakia adopted similar bans. The European Commission, which as the EU's executive branch manages trade bloc-wide, warned that EU trade policy is shaped collectively and not by each member country. The commission is bent on helping the embattled government of Ukraine bring the country's agricultural products to world markets, both to alleviate global food insecurity and to provide the invaded nation with much-needed income. “Unilateral measures can only play into the hands of the adversaries of Ukraine and should not erode our unwavering support for Ukraine,” von der Leyen wrote in her letter. After a Russian blockade kept shipments from leaving Ukraine's Black Sea ports, the EU lifted duties on Ukrainian grain to facilitate its transport to Africa and the Middle East by other routes and offered to pay some compensation to farmers on transit countries, which they said was insufficient. A small breakthrough in the trade dispute emerged late Tuesday when Polish and Ukrainian officials said convoys of Ukrainian grain could resume traveling through Poland for export abroad, but only if the cargo was sealed, guarded and monitored to ensure it wasn't redirected and flooded the Polish market. EU spokesperson Miriam Garcia Ferrer welcomed the agreement but said, "This is a first step, and it’s not the whole solution. We need an EU approach for the solution as trade policy (is an area of) EU competence. We need to have EU action.”

FBI says China, Iran using new tactics to harass critics on U.S. soil
WASHINGTON (Reuters)/Wed, April 19, 2023
China and Iran are becoming increasingly brazen in their attempts to silence dissidents on American soil and influence U.S. policy, the FBI warned on Wednesday.In a news briefing with reporters about transnational repression, FBI counterintelligence officials urged victims to come forward, saying the bureau is tracking a growing trend of foreign authoritarian regimes breaching U.S. laws to intimidate certain communities. The officials said the governments have at times resorted to using private investigators to conduct surveillance on dissidents and that several criminal cases have been brought by federal prosecutors involving their use. "A lot of these are new tactics and lines that are being crossed that we have not seen China and Iran do on U.S. soil in previous investigations," one FBI counterintelligence official said. He added that the FBI hoped to raise awareness of such trends and alert the private investigator sector and state and local law enforcement. Officials said the goals of transnational repression schemes are multifaceted, and at times also aim to influence U.S. policy decisions through "malign influence tactics.""We've really seen an inflection point in the tactics and tools, and the level of risk and the level of threat that have changed over the past few years," another FBI counterintelligence official said. The call with reporters on Wednesday came just two days after federal agents arrested two New York residents for allegedly operating a Chinese "secret police station" in Manhattan's Chinatown district, in what prosecutors said is part of a broader U.S. government crackdown on Beijing's alleged targeting of dissidents. Safeguard Defenders, a Europe-based human rights organization, has published reports in recent months revealing the presence of dozens of Chinese police "service stations" in major cities around the world, including in New York and Los Angeles. FBI officials declined to comment on the New York case or speak about any other open investigations.

US-made Patriot guided missile systems arrive in Ukraine
KYIV, Ukraine (AP)/Wed, April 19, 2023
Ukraine’s defense minister said Wednesday his country has received the U.S-made Patriot surface-to-air guided missile systems it has long craved and which Kyiv hopes will help shield it from Russian airstrikes during the war. “Today, our beautiful Ukrainian sky becomes more secure because Patriot air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine,” Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in a tweet. Ukrainian officials have previously said the arrival of Patriot systems, which Washington agreed to send last October, would be a major boost and a milestone in the war against Moscow’s full-scale invasion. It's the latest contribution from Kyiv's Western allies, who have also pledged tanks, artillery and some types of fighter jets as Ukraine gears up for an expected counteroffensive. China, on the other hand, insists it won’t help arm Russia, one of its key allies, and on Wednesday denied recent reports that Chinese drones have been found on Ukraine battlefields. Beijing maintains strict control over the export of drones in keeping with international standards preventing them from being used for nonpeaceful purposes, the Commerce Ministry said in a statement. China, which has repeatedly criticized the U.S. and other countries’ support for Ukraine as “adding fuel to the fire” of the war, has an “objective and fair stance” and seeks peace, the statement insisted. The Patriot can target aircraft, cruise missiles and shorter-range ballistic missiles. Russia has used that weaponry to bombard Ukraine, including residential areas and civilian infrastructure, especially the power supply over the winter. Ukrainian air force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said late Tuesday that delivery of the system would be a landmark event, allowing Ukrainians to knock out Russian targets at a greater distance. Reznikov thanked the people of the United States, Germany and the Netherlands, without saying how many systems had been delivered nor when. Germany’s federal government website on Tuesday listed a Patriot system as among the military items delivered within the past week to Ukraine, and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock confirmed that to lawmakers in Berlin on Wednesday. Baerbock also said Germany has delivered the second of four medium-range IRIS-T air defense systems that it pledged last year. Reznikov said he had first asked for Patriot systems when he visited the U.S. in August 2021, five months before the full-scale invasion by the Kremlin’s forces and seven years after Russia illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. He described possessing the system as “a dream” but said he was told in the U.S. at the time that it was “impossible.” Ukrainian personnel have been trained on the Patriot battery, which can need as many as 90 troops to operate and maintain it.
“Our air defenders have mastered (the Patriot systems) as far as they could. And our partners have kept their word,” Reznikov wrote. Experts have cautioned that the system’s effectiveness is limited, and it may not be a game changer in the war, even though it will add to Ukraine’s arsenal against its bigger enemy.
The Patriot was first deployed by the U.S. in the 1980s. The system costs approximately $4 million per round and the launchers cost about $10 million each, analysts say. At such a cost, it’s not advantageous to use the Patriot to shoot down the far smaller and cheaper Iranian drones that Russia has been buying and using in Ukraine. Kyiv officials have reported daily civilian, but not military, casualties from Russian bombardment. At least four civilians were killed and 27 others were injured in Ukraine on Tuesday and overnight, the press office of Ukraine’s defense ministry reported. A 50-year-old man and 44-year-old woman were killed in a Russian airstrike on a border town in the northeastern Kharkiv region, its Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said in televised remarks. Russian forces launched 12 rocket, artillery, mortar, tank and drone attacks on Ukraine’s southern Kherson region, its Gov. Oleksandr Prokudin said, killing one civilian at a market in the center of Kherson, the region’s namesake capital, and a nearby school.A woman was killed and another was wounded in northern Ukraine after Russian forces shelled the border village of Richki from multiple rocket launchers, the local military administration said. Russian forces also fired nighttime exploding drones at Ukraine’s southern Odesa region.

US Navy sails first drone through Mideast's Strait of Hormuz
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/Wed, April 19, 2023
The U.S. Navy sailed its first drone boat through the strategic Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, a crucial waterway for global energy supplies where American sailors often faces tense encounters with Iranian forces.
The trip by the L3 Harris Arabian Fox MAST-13, a 13-meter (41-foot) speedboat carrying sensors and cameras, drew the attention of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, but took place without incident, said Navy spokesman Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins. Two U.S. Coast Guard cutters, the USCGC Charles Moulthrope and USCGC John Scheuerman, accompanied the drone. The trip saw the drone safely pass with the accompanying ships through the strait, a busy waterway between Iran and Oman which at its narrowest is just 33 kilometers (21 miles) wide. A fifth of all oil traded passes through the strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. “The Iranians observed the unmanned surface vessel transiting the strait in accordance with international law,” Hawkins told The Associated Press. He said an Iranian drone and at least one Houdong-class fast-attack vessel operated by Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard observed the MAST-13 drone. The U.S. Navy's Bahrain-based 5th Fleet patrols Mideast waters, particularly the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, to keep open the waterways for international trade, as well as protect American interests and allies. However, Iran views the Navy's presence as an affront, comparing it to its forces running patrols in the Gulf of Mexico.Iranian state media did not acknowledge the drone voyage. Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The 5th Fleet launched a special drone task force last year, aiming to have a fleet of some 100 unmanned drones, both sailing and submersible, operating in the region with America’s allies. Iran briefly seized several of the American drones being tested in the region in late August and early September, though there hasn't been any similar incident since. The MAST-13 now is operating in the Gulf of Oman, where a maritime shadow war has played out as oil tankers have been seized by Iranian forces and suspicious explosions have struck vessels in the region, including those linked to Israeli and Western firms. Iran has denied involvement in the explosions, despite evidence from the West to the contrary. The MAST-13's video feeds can transmit images back to shore and to ships at sea, helping sailors see ships before approaching them, Hawkins said. That can come in handy, particularly as the Navy and Western allies have increasingly seized weapons it believes were from Iran bound for Yemen. “It puts more eyes out on the water, enabling us to better monitor what is happening,” Hawkins said.

Austin hopes Turkey will act on Sweden NATO bid before July
MUSKO NAVAL BASE, Sweden (AP)/Wed, April 19, 2023
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday it's important that Turkey makes its decision to allow Sweden to join NATO “sooner versus later,” and said he “feels confident” it will happen before the alliance summit in July. He declined, however, to say whether a recent U.S. deal to provide fighter jet upgrades to Turkey will provide enough incentive for Ankara to finally vote. Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson said he is hopeful Sweden will gain admittance by summer, and his country feels more secure with the additional U.S. military exercises and involvement with his nation.
“We look forward to continuing to advocate for your swift admission to NATO, and we’ll work hard to get that done before the summit,” Austin said. The NATO summit will be in Lithuania in early July. Sweden’s bid to join NATO remains stalled by opposition from Turkey and Hungary, even weeks after both nations finally approved Finland’s application. Sweden and neighboring Finland jointly applied for NATO membership in May 2022, abandoning decades of non-alignment in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Austin and Jonson spoke to reporters near the docks at the Musko Naval Base. Austin is traveling on the HMS Harnosand, the Visby class corvette warship, between two islands in the southern Stockholm archipelago. The U. S. defense secretary watched as Swedish Marines on small combat boats conducted an amphibious landing exercise, the sounds of their guns echoing off the water.
Austin said his visit comes at a crucial time for European security, and he urged Turkey and NATO to act soon to approve Sweden's membership in NATO. He said it will mean a stronger alliance and a more secure Europe, lauding Sweden's troops and their capabilities, particularly in the Baltic Sea region.
“It's important to all of us that they make the decision sooner versus later,” Austin said. The U.S. agreed Monday to sell Turkey $259 million in software it has long sought to upgrade its fleet of U.S. F-16 fighter jets. But Turkey also still wants to buy 40 new F-16s from the U.S. — a sale opposed by some in Congress who want to wait until Turkey approves Sweden's membership in NATO. In remarks at the start of their meeting, Jonson thanked Austin for America's continuing military support “during this transition time into NATO,” which he said has reassured Sweden and helped make the country more secure.
Austin's visit to Sweden is the first by a U.S. defense chief since 2000, by then-secretary William Cohen. While the U.S. military has long trained with Sweden, it has not been a frequent stop for U.S. defense leaders, since they are more likely to visit with NATO allies — an alliance Sweden has long resisted joining.Austin got a sweeping look at Sweden’s military, including a tour of the Musko cave complex and its maritime operations centers, followed by an hour-long ride to Berga Naval Base, aboard one of the Navy’s Visby-class Corvette ships.
While Sweden has long worked with NATO and is considered a “partner country,” it does not enjoy the full protections afforded a member nation — most importantly Article 5 protection. That provision of the treaty states that if one member of the alliance is attacked in Europe or North America, it is considered an attack on all. The only time the Article 5 mutual defense provision has been invoked was in support of the U.S. after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington. But in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022, a number of European nations feared they could be attacked next — triggering the NATO applications of Finland and Sweden. Finland formally joined the alliance on April 5, just days after Turkey and Hungary finally voted to ratify Helsinky’s application. A unanimous vote of all 31 alliance members is required to admit new members.
In response to Finland’s formal acceptance, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Moscow “will be forced to take military-technical and other retaliatory measures to counter the threats to our national security arising from Finland’s accession to NATO.” And Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Finland’s membership reflects the alliance’s anti-Russian course and warned that Moscow will respond depending on what weapons NATO allies place there. The Turkish government has accused Sweden of being too soft on groups that it deems to be terror organizations. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said Ankara needs further assurances before it will give its final approval. The dispute grew when, in January, a far-right activist from Denmark got police permission to stage a protest outside the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm where he burned the Islamic holy book. The incident angered millions of Muslims around the world, and Turkey said it wouldn’t allow Sweden to join NATO as long as Stockholm permits such protests. In Sweden, such demonstrations are protected by freedom of speech. Austin spoke with Turkey’s defense minister, Hulusi Akar, on April 6, and according to a statement from the defense ministry they discussed Finland’s NATO membership and “it was emphasized that we always support NATO’s Open Door Policy, Finland’s membership shows this once again and it is hoped that Sweden will fulfill its commitments as soon as possible.”

Kremlin: South Korean arms for Ukraine would signify involvement in conflict
(Reuters)/Wed, April 19, 2023
Any decision by South Korea to supply arms to Ukraine would make Seoul a participant in the conflict, the Kremlin said on Wednesday, after President Yoon Suk Yeol opened the door to such deliveries. South Korea has denounced Russia's invasion of Ukraine and supplied economic and humanitarian aid to Kyiv, but unlike the United States and European allies has so far stopped short of sending weapons. In a Reuters interview on Tuesday ahead of a visit to Washington next week, Yoon said Seoul would consider arming Kyiv in the event of a major new attack against Ukrainian civilians. "Unfortunately, Seoul has taken a rather unfriendly position in this whole story," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a briefing. "They will try to draw more and more countries directly into this conflict. But of course, the start of arms deliveries will obliquely mean a certain stage of involvement in this conflict." Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin who frequently makes hawkish comments on Russia's military campaign in Ukraine, suggested Moscow could respond by supplying advanced weaponry to North Korea. "I wonder what the inhabitants of this country [South Korea] will say when they see the latest designs of Russian weapons in the hands of their closest neighbours - our partners from the DPRK [North Korea]?" Medvedev said in a post on Telegram.

Germany's foreign minister: Parts of China trip 'more than shocking'
BERLIN (Reuters)/Wed, April 19, 2023
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Wednesday described parts of her recent trip to China as "more than shocking" and said Beijing was increasingly becoming a systemic rival more than a trade partner and competitor. The blunt remarks followed Baerbock's visit to Beijing last week where she warned that any attempt by China to control Taiwan would be unacceptable. Beijing claims democratically governed Taiwan as a Chinese province and has never ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control. Baerbock had also said China wanted to follow its own rules at the expense of the international rules-based order. Beijing in turn asked Germany to support Taiwan's "reunification" and said China and Germany were not adversaries but partners. Speaking to the German Bundestag (lower house of parliament) on Wednesday about her China trip, Baerbock said "some of it was really more than shocking".She did not elaborate on specifics, although her remark came after she said China was becoming more repressive internally as well as aggressive externally. For Germany, she said, China is a partner, competitor and systemic rival, but her impression is now "that the systemic rivals aspect is increasing more and more". China is Germany's largest trading partner, said Baerbock, but this did not mean Beijing was also Germany's most important trading partner. The German government wants to work with China but does not want to repeat past mistakes, for example the notion of "change through trade", she said, that the West can achieve political shifts in authoritarian regimes through commerce. Baerbock also said China had a responsibility to work towards peace in the world, in particular using its influence over Russia in the war in Ukraine. She welcomed Beijing's promise not to supply weapons to Russia, including dual use items, though added that Berlin would see how such a promise worked in practice. In a departure from the policies of former chancellor Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz's government is developing a new China strategy to reduce dependence on Asia's economic superpower, a vital export market for German goods.

Ukraine says received first Patriot air defense systems
Agence France Presse/Wed, April 19, 2023 
Kyiv said Wednesday it had received the first Patriots, seen as one of the most advanced US air defense systems, and deployed France's light armored fighting vehicles as Ukraine prepares for a counteroffensive. "Today, our beautiful Ukrainian sky becomes more secure because Patriot air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine," Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Twitter. He added that the United States, Germany and the Netherlands had "kept their word". Washington late last year said it would provide Ukraine with its Patriot air defense system as Russia pounded Ukraine's energy infrastructure from the air.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the system will "significantly" strengthen Ukraine's defense against Russian strikes. Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the announcement at the time, saying Russia will find an "antidote". Germany announced in January that it was following the United States in sending one of the advanced missile defense batteries to Ukraine. The Netherlands said it would supply parts of a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, specifically two launchers and missiles. Separately, the Ukrainian army said Wednesday that France's light AMX-10 RC armored fighting vehicles were "already in service".

No respite in Sudan as truce falls apart, rivals battle
Naharnet/Wed, April 19, 2023 
Explosions and heavy gunfire rattled the Sudanese capital in a fifth day of fighting Wednesday after an internationally brokered truce quickly fell apart. The cease-fire failure suggested the two rival generals fighting for control of the country were determined to crush each other in a potentially prolonged conflict.
With no sign of respite, desperate and terrified Sudanese who have been trapped for days in their homes by the violence began to flee, witnesses said. Residents of multiple neighborhoods of Khartoum told The Associated Press they could see hundreds, including women and children, carrying luggage, some leaving by foot, others crowding into vehicles. "Khartoum has become a ghost city," said Atiya Abdalla Atiya, secretary of the Doctors' Syndicate, who is still in the capital.The generals' fight for power has caught millions of Sudanese in the crossfire, as their forces have battled it out since Saturday with heavy machine guns, artillery and airstrikes in residential neighborhoods of Khartoum, its neighboring city Omdurman and other major towns of the country. At least 270 people have been killed in the past five days, the U.N. said, but the toll is likely higher, since many bodies have been left in the streets, unreachable because of clashes. A 24-hour cease-fire was to have been in effect from sundown Tuesday to sundown Wednesday. It was the most concrete attempt yet to bring a pause that it was hoped could be expanded into a longer truce.
It came after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke separately by phone with the two rivals — the leader of the armed forces, Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan, and the head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo. Egypt, which backs the Sudanese military, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have close ties to the RSF, have also been calling on all sides to stand down. But fighting continued after the intended start of the truce and through the night. Each side blamed the other for the failure.
Fierce clashes between the army and RSF were reported Wednesday morning around the military's headquarters in central Khartoum and the nearby airport, as well as around the state television building across the river in Omdurman. Bombs and artillery could be heard around the city.
A high-rise in the city center was on fire with burning debris falling from its top floors, according to footage by the Al Arabiya news network. "The battles intensified in the morning after sporadic gunfire over the night," said Tahani Abass, a prominent rights advocate who lives close to the military headquarters. "Bombing and explosions are shaking our houses."Mahasen Ali, a tea vendor, said many in her south Khartoum neighborhood have left their homes to take refuge in open areas, hoping to be safe from shelling hitting buildings. Others fled the city to stay with relatives elsewhere, she said.
Armed men were roaming the streets, storming shops and houses. "They take whatever they can, and if you resist, they kill you," she said. Meanwhile, 89 students and staffers at Khartoum University who had been trapped in the engineering department since the start of fighting were rescued by the military Tuesday, said Mohammed Al Faki, one of the freed students. Online footage showed students crawling through a small hole in the university's perimeter wall, helped by men in uniforms.
The battles, with heavy machine guns, artillery and airstrikes, have wreaked extensive damage, playing out in the streets of Khartoum and the city of Omdurman on the opposite bank of the Nile River, as well as in other key towns around Sudan. Dozens of health care facilities in Khartoum and around the country have stopped functioning because they are close to clashes, the Sudanese Doctors' Syndicate said Wednesday. At least nine hospitals were bombed and 16 were forcefully evacuated, it said. The director-general of the U.N.'s World Health Organization, Tedros Ghebreyesus, said Wednesday that at least 270 people have been killed and more than 2,600 wounded since fighting began, without offering a breakdown of civilians and combatants killed. The Doctors' Syndicate, which monitors casualties, said Tuesday that at least 174 civilians have been killed and hundreds wounded. Blinken had described the proposed one-day humanitarian cease-fire as a building block for a longer truce and a return to eventual negotiations. Their failure to pause fighting for even a day, despite high-level diplomatic pressure, suggests the generals remain bent on pursuing a military victory.
The conflict between the military and the RSF has once again derailed Sudan's transition to democratic rule after decades of dictatorship and civil war. A popular uprising four years ago helped depose long-time autocrat Omar al-Bashir, but Burhan and Dagalo allied to carry out a 2021 coup. Both generals have a long history of human rights abuses, and their forces have cracked down on pro-democracy activists. Under international pressure, Burhan and Dagalo recently agreed to a framework agreement with political parties and pro-democracy groups. But the signing was repeatedly delayed as tensions rose over the integration of the RSF into the armed forces and the future chain of command — tensions that exploded into violence Saturday.

Syria's road to reintegration: Obstacles, conditions, and challenges ahead
LBCI/Wed, April 19, 2023 
Carrying with him a comprehensive settlement package, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan arrived in Damascus, where he met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after a complete diplomatic rupture that lasted over 11 years between the two sides. Suppose Assad's answers are pending for days or even months to come. In that case, Syria's return to the Arab fold faces several obstacles until now, the most prominent of which are:
First, the refusal of some Arab countries, including Qatar, Morocco, Jordan, and Kuwait, each of which cites its reasons ranging from the necessity of the regime's dealing with the opposition to the refusal to engage with Assad.
Second, the US dissatisfaction with the openness to Damascus, as Washington informed Riyadh and Tel Aviv of its opposition to any efforts to reintegrate Assad into the Arab League, according to Republican senior lawmaker Lindsey Graham in an interview with Al Arabiya, which came days after he met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah. Third, the comprehensive solution package proposed by Riyadh to Damascus to pave the way for the return.
The package mentioned in the statement of the Syrian Foreign Minister's visit to Saudi Arabia, as well as the Gulf Cooperation Council meeting and then the Saudi minister's visit to Damascus, includes drug trafficking as one of the main points for Saudi Arabia in its negotiations with Assad, as the drug trade has become the economic lifeline for the Assad regime and has reached Saudi Arabia.
What Riyadh also publicly demands is the need to prepare the conditions for the safe return of Syrian refugees to their areas, as well as the application of a comprehensive political road map, while the presence of Iran in Damascus remains another obstacle to Syria's readmission to the Arab League.
In this context, the Financial Times says that the countries opposing the return of Syria asked Saudi Arabia at the recent Jeddah meeting: Assad has done nothing to rehabilitate his regime; what have you then extracted from him?
Given all of the above, will the Assad regime meet these conditions, and does he have the key to solving them, or are some of them in the hands of his regional allies? Will he succeed in stopping the drug trade? Will he accept negotiating and including the Syrian opposition in the comprehensive solution? Will he accept opening the door for the return of refugees without conditions or threats that impede their return? Can he remove Iranian forces from his country?
If the Syrian regime achieves all of these demands, will the countries that are normalizing relations with it succeed in bypassing the Caesar Act imposed by the United States on those who deal with Damascus?

Trudeau grilled by Poilievre over $162,000 Jamaica family trip
Global News/April 19, 2023
During question period at the House of Commons on Tuesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was grilled over the details of his week-long family vacation in Jamaica over the winter holidays, which cost taxpayers at least $162,000. "This is 50 years of friendship… but of course we work with the ethics commissioner to make sure everything, all the rules were followed,” Trudeau said in response to attacks by opposition leader Pierre Poilievre.

Oman liberalizes foreign marriage law in rare social reform
LBCI/April 19, 2023
Omanis no longer need state permission to marry a foreign national according to a royal decree issued this week, a rare example of social reform in the conservative Gulf country. Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said has, since assuming power in 2020 after the 50-year reign of the late Sultan Qaboos, embarked on long-delayed reforms to improve fiscal stability and attract foreign investment. According to newspapers in Oman, where the government tightly controls media and public dissent, Omanis previously had to fulfil certain conditions, such as being over a certain age, to marry a foreigner. Unauthorized marriages drew fines. On Sunday Omani state media said Sultan Haitham had issued decree 23/2023 which cancelled a 1993 law empowering the interior ministry to approve each marriage to a foreigner. "The facts and circumstances of life have changed, and the economic situation has changed (since that 1993 law)," said Omani lawyer Salah al-Maqbali, re-stating to Reuters comments to Omani media outlet Shabiba on Monday. The decree states that such marriages must not violate sharia (Islamic law), public order or other provisions banning holders of certain government jobs from marrying foreigners. But marriages previously deemed illegal can now be legalized, it said. The full decree has not yet been published. Omani nationals make up just over half of the population of around 3.8 million people. Oman is a relatively small crude oil producer compared to its wealthier Gulf neighbors, and was hit by a post-2014 fall in oil prices and by the pandemic-driven price crash. Higher recent oil prices and fiscal reforms have however improved state deficits and rating agency S&P last month revised Oman's outlook to positive, from stable. It said the government was repairing its balance sheet and had reduced gross debt to 40% of GDP in 2022, from around 60% in 2021.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 19-20/2023
Biden Has Abandoned the Middle East to China and Russia
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/April 19, 2023
In the absence of any desire on the part of the Biden administration to support the Saudis -- for decades one of Washington's most important allies in the region -- China has moved quickly to fill the diplomatic vacuum to launch its own initiative to restore ties with Iran.
[T]he fact that the Chinese can pull off a diplomatic coup involving a country that was formerly a key ally of the US serves as a devastating indictment of the Biden administration's incompetence.
Having previously castigated Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country's de facto leader, over his alleged involvement in the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi, as well as the Saudis' involvement in Yemen's disastrous civil war, Biden demanded that the Saudis increase oil production to ease the global shortage caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time Biden made it clear that his main policy goal in the region was to resurrect the flawed nuclear deal with Iran, a move the Saudis responded to with utter dismay. Unsurprisingly, Biden left Riyadh empty-handed, prompting the Saudis finally to cut their losses with the White House, and look for alliances elsewhere. This is indeed a sorry state of affairs for two countries that once prided themselves on their close ties with Washington but now, thanks to the Biden's administration's ineptitude, now find themselves seeking alliances with America's enemies. While U.S. President Joe Biden has shown nothing but contempt for long-standing allies in the region, both China and Moscow have been quick to exploit Washington's wilful neglect to their own advantage.
By far the most startling change to the political landscape of the Middle East has been Beijing's role in negotiating the restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two countries that, until recently, were sworn enemies.
Relations have been strained between Tehran and Riyadh since the 1979 Islamic Revolution established the ayatollahs' deeply repressive regime, with Iran's clerical dictatorship regularly claiming that the Saudi royal family were unfit custodians of the two holy sites at Mecca and Medina.
One of the more outrageous Iranian attacks was a failed attempt to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the US, Adel al-Jubair, in a bomb attack on an upmarket restaurant in Washington DC in 2011, which was later found to have been organised by Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's elite Quds Force.
Tensions between the two countries have escalated dramatically in recent years after an Iranian mob stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran in 2016 and set it ablaze, prompting the Saudis to cut diplomatic ties. Since then the two countries have been involved in a bitter proxy war in Yemen, with the Iranians providing funds and weaponry to the Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition supporting the country's democratically-elected government.
Despite the intense hostility that exists between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which is exacerbated by their respective devotion to the competing traditions of Shia and Sunni Islam, Tehran and Riyadh have made the surprise move of restoring diplomatic relations in an initiative orchestrated by Beijing.
In the absence of any desire on the part of the Biden administration to support the Saudis -- for decades one of Washington's most important allies in the region -- China has moved quickly to fill the diplomatic vacuum to launch its own initiative to restore ties with Iran.
Following intense discussions between the two sides in Beijing last month involving senior security officials, the two sides agreed to a China-brokered agreement to restore diplomatic relations, whereby they undertake to reopen their respective embassies within two months and refrain from interfering in each other's domestic affairs.
Given the long-standing enmity that exists between the two countries, it is hard to envisage relations between Riyadh and Tehran moving beyond observing the basic diplomatic protocols so long as Iran's ayatollahs remain in power.
The only tangible gain that is likely to emerge from the deal is a lasting ceasefire in the Yemeni conflict, a move that has previously been thwarted by Iran using its influence over the Houthi rebels to scupper a deal.
Even so, the fact that the Chinese can pull off a diplomatic coup involving a country that was formerly a key ally of the US serves as a devastating indictment of the Biden administration's incompetence.
From Saudi Arabia's perspective, it is hardly surprising that the kingdom should seek new alliances after the high-handed treatment it has received since Biden took office, which was very much in evidence when the American leader visited Riyadh last July.
Having previously castigated Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country's de facto leader, over his alleged involvement in the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi, as well as the Saudis' involvement in Yemen's disastrous civil war, Biden demanded that the Saudis increase oil production to ease the global shortage caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
At the same time Biden made it clear that his main policy goal in the region was to resurrect the flawed nuclear deal with Iran, a move the Saudis responded to with utter dismay. Unsurprisingly, Biden left Riyadh empty-handed, prompting the Saudis finally to cut their losses with the White House, and look for alliances elsewhere. This has resulted in the Saudis forging ever-closer ties with China, a country that is regarded as posing a major threat to the long-term security of the United States. Nor is Saudi Arabia the only former American ally in the Middle East to review its diplomatic options as a result of the Biden administration's indifference towards the region. According to details contained in documents allegedly stolen from the Pentagon that have subsequently been shared on social media, both Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), countries that previously enjoyed strong ties with Washington, have provided support to Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi is said to have instructed his arms industry to make missiles to sell to Russia for use in the Ukraine conflict, while Russian officials were recorded boasting that the UAE had agreed to cooperate with them "against US and UK intelligence." This is indeed a sorry state of affairs for two countries that once prided themselves on their close ties with Washington but, thanks to the Biden's administration's ineptitude, now find themselves seeking alliances with America's enemies.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Imperative that Sudan army emerges victorious
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/April 19/2023
It was almost inevitable that the two reluctant partners that have jointly ruled Sudan for the past four years were destined to fight each other as a political accord to hand over the reins of power to a civilian government was to be signed and adopted earlier this month. But the faceoff between Sovereignty Council president and top army chief Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and head of the notorious Rapid Support Forces militia Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo has little to do with restoring democracy or ending decades of hardship for the people of Sudan. It is in fact a power struggle and a fight between the forces that carried out the 2019 military putsch against long-time dictator Omar Bashir. For the people of Sudan, there is little sympathy for either man. Al-Burhan and deputy Dagalo have derailed previous attempts to restore civilian rule and, while the signing last December of the Framework Agreement was a significant breakthrough, the fact that Dagalo had caveats about the timeframe for integrating the RSF into the regular army was always going to be a deal-breaker. Other issues for both men involved articles in the agreement regarding divesting the military from economic activities and investigating abuses by the military against civilians. It is not clear how this week’s bloody clashes began or which side to believe when it comes to news from the battlefield. Both sides claim to have scored significant gains, but by Monday evening it was clear that neither side had come out on top and that skirmishes were taking place at key points in the capital, including the army headquarters, and elsewhere in the country.
One would assume that the regular army of about 250,000 well-equipped men, backed by fighter jets and heavy armor, will eventually overcome the lightly fitted RSF, whose numbers are said to be about 100,000. But the RSF is battle-tested, having fought for years in Darfur, and is an elite force that Bashir had selected to be his personal militia. In fact, it is believed that Dagalo’s decision to back the military coup against his boss was instrumental in toppling Bashir’s regime.
While Al-Burhan himself cannot be trusted to oversee the restoration of civilian rule, it is imperative that the Sudanese army emerges as the winner in this confrontation. A defeat of the army, while difficult to imagine, would be catastrophic for Sudan and its territorial integrity. Aside from dire economic and social conditions, the specter of partition and civil strife continues to haunt the country. Tribes in the economically vital eastern region are becoming restless and voices calling for secession are echoing again. Also hanging in the balance is the future of peace in Darfur and southern Sudan. A prolonged military confrontation could also trigger tribal wars in different parts of the country.
So far, neither Al-Burhan nor Dagalo has agreed to a lasting ceasefire or to peace talks. Al-Burhan escalated things by disbanding the RSF and declaring Dagalo a mutineer. For his part, Dagalo has accused Al-Burhan of leading an Islamist takeover of the country in an attempt to tie the general to Bashir backers. Such accusations are meant to send cryptic messages to outside parties, both regional and beyond, that have a vested interest in what is happening in Sudan. It was interesting that Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, who visited Khartoum in February, warned of a radical Islamist infiltration in Sudan and confirmed that Israel is trying to calm the situation there. Both Al-Burhan and Dagalo have met Israeli officials and are on record supporting the normalization of relations between the two countries. Dagalo has regional connections and RSF fighters have been dispatched as mercenaries to fight outside Sudan. This is probably why Al-Burhan was quick to warn foreign parties against interfering in the current crisis. A defeat of the army, while difficult to imagine, would be catastrophic for Sudan and its territorial integrity.
The situation in Sudan is critical to the stability of the immediate region. The US, Russia, Egypt and Israel all have a stake in how things turn out. What is worrying is that neither side will be able to seal a quick victory. The current conflict could drag on for weeks and even months. If Dagalo is forced out of the capital, he could retreat to Darfur and wage a guerilla war against the military and inside cities. In either case, the country will slide into turmoil and a humanitarian crisis will soon ensue. If a stalemate prevails with no conclusive end, then mediators may be able to bring the two sides to the table. That may not be good for the future of Sudan. A situation where both sides remain on the ground will weaken the country and, more importantly, imperil the implementation of the Framework Agreement.
*Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010

Going Back to the Iraq War
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 19/2023
The Iraq War of 2003 will continue to be a foundational event for a long time. The 20th anniversary of the war, a few weeks ago, adds to our growing “album of losses,” to borrow the title of Abbas Baydoun’s novel. The items in this album, be they Iraqi, Palestinian, or otherwise, leave us in tears whenever a year or decade goes by, and come back to make us cry constantly. And so, we declare that this is our fate and perpetuate a repetitive, dull, absolutist narrative of victimhood.
Black-and-white judgments are probably less tenable for this event than most of the others that our region has seen. Avoiding one-sided and closed interpretations of these concepts, we can say that while it was an invasion and occupation, it was also an act of liberation.
Those who overlook the first fact promise international relations that are not governed by law; a mendacious legal pretense of the sort that Colin Powel offered at the time, is enough. This is the kind of global order in which the strong can do whatever they like to the weak. Such a formula should be repudiated in principle. The repercussions of this go beyond Iraq. The war has undermined intervention as a principle, even in the positive sense, which was denied to other countries grappling with their own tyrants. The war also contributed strongly to the West pulling back from the region. The withdrawal from Iraq thus invited Iran to “fill the vacuum,” bringing the Sunni-Shiite conflict back to the region. Indeed, this time the impetus was greater than it had been during the Iran-Iraq War of the Saddam era. On the other hand - and this also aggravated the sectarian conflict - the Iraqi misadventure compensated al-Qaeda for its loss of Afghanistan by gifting it Iraq. Moreover, the region, whose faith in democracy had been shaky to begin with, became less trustful of democracy. Its trust in international law, which had also been shaky in the first place, dipped as well, with the US actions that undermined it supplemented by the weakening of the law in general. Thus, Iraq was ruled through cold, draconian bureaucratic measures, giving us Abu Ghraib Prison, Camp Bucca, and their atrocities. Amid the popularity of the idea of privatization during the invasion, the door was wide open to gangs of thieves and transnational armed groups supported by major powers. Those who overlook the second fact, that the war was also an act of liberation, promise us something worse: We are talking about a regime that, despite never having been elected, remained in power for 35 years, during which it inflicted immense suffering on its people and committed a litany of crimes that include using chemical weapons against its own people and invading a peaceful neighboring country. Nonetheless, it did not fall. The fact is that, as innumerable examples demonstrate, it is extremely difficult for regimes like that of Saddam to be brought down from the inside. Worse still, ignoring the liberating aspect disregards two other truths: The savage jungle that Saddam’s regime established dwarfs any jungle set up by foreign occupation, while belittling the fall of a semi-totalitarian regime stems from an extreme weakness of democratic sensibility.
In principle, it is no minor detail that elections have been held, parties and newspapers have been established, and a large minority like the Kurds was granted considerable freedoms under a federal system. And there is no exaggeration in associating the Iraq War, which took down one of the demigods, with the insurgencies of many Arab nations, launched less than a decade later, who sought to bring down their demigods.
Denying these meanings by turning to a poor rhetoric about the glory and unity that Iraq had enjoyed before the US intervened, which were only ravaged by its intervention, was and remains pathetic. Rudimentary knowledge of the modern history of Iraq and the Arab Levant is enough to demonstrate that this discourse is an exercise in deception. Where will the balance between occupation and liberation end up tipping, and what will decide one side’s victory over the other? In all likelihood, the answer lies in the responsibility of the Iraqis themselves. And the bleak reality is that the outcome does not inspire confidence. From the very beginning, the Shiites and Kurds were more keen on de-Baathification and dissolving the army than the Americans. We saw the emergence of the resistance supported by regimes like those of Iran and Syria, and of Sunni militants that targeted Shiites in response to this highly consequential event being seen as a Shiite overthrow of the Sunnis. All of this culminated in the 2006 civil war. And that was before the emergence of ISIS, its seizure of Mosul, and the establishment of its “state.”In the meantime, Iraq was gifted to Iran. Politics was completely sectarianized, with elections themselves becoming part of the game of sectarian polarization while astronomically corrupt officials took refuge in communities’ sectarian loyalties and the expanding of their “share.” Most recently, the 2019 uprising made clear that collective national action that brings together the Sunnis and Shiites, and the Arabs and Kurds, has become a thing of the past. The weakness of the Iraqis’ responsibility and the revelation of the fact that they are not a national political community were complemented by the weakness of the region’s responsibility. Indeed, the regional practical proposal for Iraq was leaving it to rot and leaving the Americans to rot in it, so that this new experiment would neither fail nor succeed. Today we see something similar tragically unfolding in Sudan, which, as far as we know, has not been occupied. Either we say that Omar al-Bashir, Saddam Hussein, Muammar al-Gaddafi, and Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali etc., should not have been overthrown, or we think more deeply and radically about our region’s relationship with the world and itself, including the regimes that have governed it and continue to govern it.

And Now Sudan!
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 19/2023
It seems that our region is terrified of peace and charmed by wars. It is as though the lines of this poem by Al-Ahmeer Al-Saeedi chart its course:
“The wolf howled, and when the wolf howls, I am put at ease
The sound of man almost puts me in flight
God sees that I despise the genial
They despise me because of their conscience and their eyes.”
Indeed, this excerpt unfortunately describes the scenes currently unfolding in Sudan. Despite all the difficulties that Sudanese citizens are dealing with, and the existential threat facing the state and what remains of its institutions, the army and the Rapid Support Forces are fighting it out in armed clashes. They are fighting for control and power, nothing more. Yes, this is a power struggle. At a time when everyone was anticipating Sudan’s peaceful transition to a civic state, the Rapid Support Forces and their leader Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti), launched an attempt to ascend to power through the force of arms. No one wants the fighting to continue; that much is certain. Sudan and its people do not deserve this. Indeed, the Sudanese, as we Arabs know, are a peaceful people who are not easily incited to commit violence. But that is one thing, and what is happening now is something else. Things have come to a head. Armed clashes among the soldiers have erupted. While we have seen many reports about what is happening in Sudan, most of them are not based on reality. As the saying goes, “the truth is the first casualty of war.”Since the Rapid Support Forces fired the first bullet of their ongoing coup attempt five days ago, we have seen a flurry of blatantly false reports. Unfortunately, the fake news has been spread by media figures on Twitter, especially those who are pushing the propaganda of the Rapid Support Forces. The point, here, is that the longer these military skirmishes go on, the higher the costs paid by Sudan and its citizens and the more foreign meddling we will see. The crisis is getting worse, especially in terms of mediation efforts, particularly those led by the Europeans and the United States. Therefore, only the victory of the army, which is the lesser evil, can help Sudan and the Sudanese. True, an army victory would perpetuate the military’s impression that it has triumphed and, by extension, its desire for power. Nonetheless, a Rapid Support Forces victory would be worse. It would mean the end of the Sudanese state and its replacement by militias.
The situation in the region and its ongoing crises, for which its people are primarily responsible, demands rejecting military coups and the use of force. All militias, regardless of their backers and pretexts, must be rejected.
It is time to say enough is enough. We cannot continue to go easy on those who launch coups and resort to violence, be it in Sudan or anywhere else. We must tell those who have turned their back to the logic of peace and stability that the house has protection. We must tell them that our countries will play no role in reconstruction, nor will they provide aid, neither in Sudan nor even in Syria. Thus, contrary to the claims of the Rapid Support Forces, this is no defense of the state and democracy. That is a patent lie. Rather, it is a power struggle, and the army, which is the lesser evil, must win.
Unless the battle is decided swiftly, its repercussions on Sudan, the Sudanese, and neighboring countries will be consequential and dangerous. The tragic state of affairs in Sudan will get worse, and there is no justification for this.

The West has so much to gain from a Cold War with China
Jeremy Warne/The Telegraph/April 19, 2023
Hoping for the best is no longer an option; we need instead to be preparing for the worst.
Back in the day, the hope was that China, with its turbo-charged economic growth, would eventually become more like us – a kind of giant version of Singapore that gladly accepts the Western designed rules-based order governing international trade and cooperation that grew out of the ashes of the Second World War.Politicians in Britain and beyond spoke of a new "golden age" of economic integration with China, greedily eying the supposed opportunities of its fast-growing markets.
These hopes have been dashed by Beijing’s tacit support for Putin's invasion of Ukraine, its repudiation of the "one country, two systems" settlement in Hong Kong, its disregard for the principles of fair trade, its abuse of human rights, its refusal to cooperate over the origins of Covid, and its increasingly bellicose rhetoric, matched by ever more threatening behaviour, over Taiwan. Far from wanting to grow more like us, China today claims an innately superior, alternative form of governance – free from the short-termist compromises of electoral democracy – which it does not intend to change and aims to spread around the world. Its approach to the West is confrontational, rather than cooperative. Exactly who is to blame for this deterioration is hotly disputed, and no doubt the West is partly culpable. What seems unarguable, however, is that we've passed the point of no return. Companies and governments are responding accordingly by re-engineering supply chains and rethinking globalisation. Conventional economic wisdom is that this is a retrogressive step, if also an inevitable one as the emerging superpower of China increasingly faces off with the US incumbent.
But is it really such a disaster? Globalisation has brought major rewards to China and many other developing economies; beyond lower consumer prices – which are admittedly not to be sneezed at – its benefits to the West look much more questionable.
As we have learnt to our cost with Putin's invasion of Ukraine, it has also endangered our security, in that economic integration with potentially hostile regimes makes it more difficult to take a principled stand when required.
At this stage, the idea of "deglobalisation" – or to use the jargon, "geoeconomic fragmentation" of world trade and financial flows into competing blocs – is more a case of imagination than reality. Both in Europe and the US, trade with China last year surged to record levels.
All three are still highly dependent on each other, which is one reason why an imminent invasion by China of Taiwan seems unlikely. The economic consequences would be as devastating to China as it would be to the West. Such considerations didn't stop Putin, but it must be assumed that President Xi Jinping is more pragmatically minded.
The direction of travel is nevertheless undeniable. Already, foreign direct investment flows are increasingly concentrated among countries that are geopolitically aligned. The US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, speaks of "friendshoring" of supply chains to trusted countries. In Britain, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is similarly focused on reducing the country's economic dependence on China in strategically important industries – derisking the economy by diversifying supply chains, rather than outright decoupling. In so doing, G7 nations have belatedly begun reaching out to the "global south", where decades of Western neglect have allowed China to extend and consolidate its influence. In large parts of the world, Putin's war is regarded as a European affair of little or no interest to their own countries, except insofar as Western sanctions have harmed them by putting a rocket under global food prices.
Such is the degree of resentment that, as strongly advocated by the UK, a new package of IMF assistance to Ukraine was last week balanced by similar aid to low income countries and another big push on debt relief. Finally, something is being done to counter China's growing monopoly of the global south.
All the same, it's a tricky process. Today's friend can rapidly become tomorrow's enemy. All too frequently, moreover, apparently trusted nations with similar values turn out not to be so friendly after all. The reshoring intent of a number of US industrial policy initiatives, including the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors, the Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act, and the weakening of state aid rules in the EU so as to encourage an overtly "Made in Europe" approach, are all essentially protectionist measures which are not at all helpful to Britain's own attempts to rebuild its own industries.
China, too, aims to replace imported technology with local alternatives, so as to reduce dependence on geopolitical rivals. All these developments are regarded with horror by the International Monetary Fund, whose globalising, free trade principles look ever more out of touch with the geopolitics of today's world. "Change through trade" as applied to China self-evidently hasn't worked. At the IMF's spring meeting last week, the fund's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, said that as a Bulgarian she had experienced the Cold War first hand, together with its impact in cutting off talented people from the world economy, and didn't want to see that repeated. She warned strongly of the dangers as nations ramped up efforts to make themselves more resilient and their supply chains more secure. Estimates of the cost of fragmentation vary widely. The longer-term impact on trade alone could range from 0.2pc of global output in a limited fragmentation scenario to almost 7pc in a severe scenario, according to the IMF, or roughly equivalent to the combined annual output of Germany and Japan. If technological decoupling and restrictions on cross border capital flows are added to the mix, some countries could see losses of up to 12pc of GDP. So much for the modelling. Believe it if you will; yet it needn't necessarily be the case if fragmentation is pursued in an orderly and constructive way. There will undoubtedly be inflationary consequences, in that some of the key benefits of unfettered free trade, in terms of specialisation, competition and efficiency, might be lost. Yet once Chinese mercantilism has been curbed, these downsides could be more than made up for by enhanced onshoring of investment and therefore economic growth.
It is striking how much Western growth in output and productivity has slowed since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, marking the start of the era of unrestrained globalisation. This was meant to be the final triumph of democratic capitalism, the end of history and all that. Yet there doesn't seem to have been much in the way of an economic dividend. The subsequent malaise in many Western democracies cannot of course be wholly attributed to globalisation; there are many factors at work here. But globalisation has played some part in nearly all of them, including the financial crisis, whose origins lie in no small measure in political pressure to compensate for lacklustre income growth with expanded credit. The fact is that we have nothing to fear from geo-economic fragmentation, provided it is done in a considered way for mutual benefit among friendly nations. Done well, it might even presage an economic rebirth, a new era of Western industrial advancement, after the dispiriting declinism of recent decades.

ماكرون المهان أصبح الآن خطيراً/التلغراف/ الأربعاء ، 19نيسان / 2023
Humiliated Macron is now becoming dangerous
The Telegraph/Wed, April 19/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/117554/117554
One has to hand it to Emmanuel Macron: he has principles – and, like Groucho Marx, if people don’t like them, he has others. Earlier this month, he scooted off to China, where he seemed eager to appease President Xi Jinping. Followed by an 80-strong entourage of French corporate bosses eager for contracts, he went all de Gaulle a couple of times, most notably in an interview to Politico, in which he said that Europe had no business “getting caught up in crises that are not ours”: to salvage her “strategic autonomy”, the continent should not become “America’s vassal”.
Yet, on Monday, a French parliamentary delegation numbering three Macronista MPs (and a lone Républicain) was off to Taipei, to meet most of President Tsai Ing-wen’s government, and “reaffirm our support to Taiwanese democracy” (tweeted by Constance Le Grip, a former Sarkozy aide, now a pro-Macron MP).
You can’t really call this a damage control operation – the trip had been planned for some time. What it really shows, if proof was still needed, was that French foreign policy, like French domestic affairs, is made up as it goes along, by one Macron, Emmanuel. (The clever Bruno Tertrais of Fondation pour la recherche stratégique, a think-tank, recently and accurately told The Economist “Emmanuel Macron’s chief diplomatic adviser is Emmanuel Macron.”) Which isn’t noticeably working out so well for le Président.
Almost immediately after he was re-elected last year, Macron suffered humiliation after humiliation. First, he lost his majority at the legislative elections that followed his victory. Then started the endless battle for the pensions reform bill, in which, by refusing to talk early with the unions, he managed to get much of the old Yellow Vests crowds out in the streets. Even if the bill was eventually passed without a vote, domestically, he has lost control of his agenda.
He was never a professional politician, and the current situation, in which he faces four years of battling for every measure, bores him. Now, with nothing to lose, he’s trying to build up his reputation as a world statesman: Europe’s negotiator-in-chief. His problem being that the rest of Europe doesn’t acknowledge his self-appointed mandate. You only have to talk with Poles, Balts, Central and Northern Europeans to see that they share an exasperation not unlike in tone to that of many of the French marchers.
It’s hard not to recall the first time Macron felt he could alter the course of world politics: his frenzied attempts at dialogue with Vladimir Putin, whom he had invited to Versailles soon after the 2017 election, and was sure he could prevent from invading Ukraine. What followed were trips to Moscow, telephone calls, mentions of Tolstoy and Dostoevsky galore, all for nothing except rising annoyance in Moscow, especially when the Kremlin discovered that a documentary France 2 camera crew had been filming the French end of those long telephone conversations. (Soon afterwards, Putin pointedly cut off one of their calls: “Have to go, I’m already geared up and I’m about to play ice-hockey”.)
In China, the all-too conciliatory Macron (who, as early as a year ago, agreed to a French-Chinese mutual statement in which “France [understood] the importance and sensitivity of Taiwan-related issues and will abide by the One China principle”) still managed to annoy Xi Jinping. At their official press conference, he ad-libbed his answer to the Chinese president’s scripted remarks, droning on and on for twice as long, enough of a diplomatic gaffe that Xi decided to fidget visibly, looking at his watch.
His partners don’t trust him, his adversaries don’t respect him, his own people grumble (in private): having cancelled the French Diplomatic Corps two years ago, so that any member of the French civil service can aspire to a diplomatic post, M Macron not only disdains advice from his remaining diplomats, but even from his Élysée advisers. (“He listens, but he doesn’t follow”, one said.)
This should worry us: Macron has started to encapsulate the unlovable attributes of a particular fraction of the French realist school of foreign affairs, in which cleverness trumps sincerity and values – but with none of its historic cautiousness or subtlety. Listening to the advice of such policymakers as Hubert Védrine, the former Socialist foreign minister, he despises the Western approach to foreign policy, measured by right and wrong, as over-simplistic. (He may be “a snake” – as Iain Duncan-Smith said of him, amid reports that Macron was working on plans with China to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table – but he’s a blundering one: the worst of both worlds.)
Having risen to power by modelling himself as an outsider, Macron remains an archetypal product of the French blob, a strange universe where talking about something means you’ve achieved it – and also means nobody hears you speaking. This explains a lot of French gaffes in history, and especially why Macron doesn’t understand that each time he lobs another of his brilliant new notions, his allies and enemies hear him. Like the French public, who stopped listening some time ago, so should the West.