English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 18/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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15 آذار/2023

Bible Quotations For today
Mary Magdalene went and announced to the disciples, ‘I have seen the Lord’
“Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 20/11-18: “Mary stood weeping outside the tomb. As she wept, she bent over to look into the tomb; and she saw two angels in white, sitting where the body of Jesus had been lying, one at the head and the other at the feet. They said to her, ‘Woman, why are you weeping?’ She said to them, ‘They have taken away my Lord, and I do not know where they have laid him.’When she had said this, she turned round and saw Jesus standing there, but she did not know that it was Jesus. Jesus said to her, ‘Woman, why are you weeping? For whom are you looking?’ Supposing him to be the gardener, she said to him, ‘Sir, if you have carried him away, tell me where you have laid him, and I will take him away.’Jesus said to her, ‘Mary!’ She turned and said to him in Hebrew, ‘Rabbouni!’ (which means Teacher). Jesus said to her, ‘Do not hold on to me, because I have not yet ascended to the Father. But go to my brothers and say to them, “I am ascending to my Father and your Father, to my God and your God.” ’Mary Magdalene went and announced to the disciples, ‘I have seen the Lord’; and she told them that he had said these things to her.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 17-18/2023
Mawlawi's Press Office: Interior Ministry fully capable of conducting municipal & mayoral elections at the logistics & administrative levels once...
Lebanese Forces threaten to challenge extension of municipal councils
Dark cloud over Beirut: Hidden cost of private generators
Report: Paris seeking to convince Sunnis, KSA of Franjieh nomination
Proposed legislation seeks to grant Lebanon's Finance Ministry greater control over banknote printing
Public sector salary increase tops cabinet agenda on Tuesday
Beirut Bar Association undermines freedom, summons Legal Agenda director for criticizing new regulation
Lebanon's tourism revives as Eid Al-Fitr approaches, expects more than two million visitors in summer: report
Boushkian during a seminar on "silk & technology": For interaction between classical & modern industries within framework of building an integrated...
United States and the United Nations Announce Beginning of Implementation of Material Support Program for the ISF
Hajjar on the Saudi-Iranian agreement: Either we are partners in the settlement, or it will be at our expense!
Axis of Resistance Missiles and Encrypted Messages/Sam Menassa/Asharq Al Awsat/April 17/2023
Dying Cypriot Arabic Language/William Christou/New Lines Magazine/April 17/2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 17-18/2023
Khamenei to Iran's Armed Forces: Don’t Settle for Any Level of Power
Iranian Government Considers Comprehensive Plan against Sanctions
Iran Foreign Ministry: Tehran officially invites Saudi king to visit country
Son of Iran's last shah set to make first visit to Israel
US helicopter raid in Syria targets Daesh leader
Syria’s foreign minister visits Algeria, Tunisia to revive diplomatic ties
Ukraine rejects Iraqi offer to mediate talks with Russia
China Favors Palestinians, Israel Resuming Peace Talks
Arab League Calls for Immediate Ceasefire in Sudan
Fighting rages in Sudan as death toll climbs to 97
ICRC: Unilateral release of 104 former detainees from Abha to Sanaa, Aden
Ukraine Foreign Minister Seeks Support on Visit to Iraq
Biden lags recent Democratic presidents in declaring re-election campaign
Explainer: Why have some EU countries banned Ukraine grain imports?

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 17-18/2023
U.S. Deploys Cruise Missile Submarine to Strengthen Deterrence Against Iran/Farzin Nadimi/The Washington Institute/April 17/2023
Europe Must Support the Revolution in Iran/Saeed Ghasseminejad/ The Algemeiner/April 17/2023
Is Daesh facing defeat, or starting a deadly new phase?/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/April 17/2023
US forces facing unprecedented challenges in Syria/Ghassan Ibrahim/Arab News/April 17/2023
US decline in the Middle East and China’s new soft power/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/April 17/2023
Biden Is Emboldening China to Invade Taiwan/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute./April 17, 2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 17-18/2023
Mawlawi's Press Office: Interior Ministry fully capable of conducting municipal & mayoral elections at the logistics & administrative levels once...
NNA/April 17/2023
Caretaker Interior and Municipalities Minister, Judge Bassam Mawlawi’s press office issued a statement this afternoon, re-affirming that the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities has proven its readiness and capability to hold the parliamentary elections on time, contrary to the intentions of some at that time, and similarly, it is fully capable of conducting the municipal and mayoral elections both logistically and administratively when the necessary funding is secured (which Minister Mawlawi has repeatedly demanded since last January). In this context, Mawlawi's office reiterated the need to respect the constitutional deadlines and entitlements in order to ensure the regularity of the work of institutions, and the importance of giving the Lebanese an opportunity to express their opinions in full transparency.

Lebanese Forces threaten to challenge extension of municipal councils
LBCI/April 17/2023
Lebanon's political crisis is deepening as the government considers extending the terms of municipal councils. The Lebanese Forces party warns that any extension would violate the constitution and will object to it before the Constitutional Council. The party's objection is based on a ruling issued by the Constitutional Council in 1997, which nullified a previous extension of municipal councils and compelled the government to hold elections. However, the council relied on constitutional principles and international treaties that emphasize the periodicity of elections, the rotation of power, and the prohibition of exceeding the duration of the proxy given by citizens to municipal councils. According to constitutional expert Said Malek, the council did not find any compelling circumstances justifying the extension in 1997. Thus, he explains that for a case to be compelling, it must be unexpected, not subject to remedy, and not caused by the government's actions. Based on these jurisprudences, is there a compelling circumstance that justifies the extension today? According to constitutional sources, the current circumstances are similar to those in 1997. However, despite its flaws, they fear that the parliament may adopt a short-term extension that might be technically and legally acceptable to the Constitutional Council. Another constitutional issue arises before the proposal becomes law: who has the authority to enact it? Hence, former Minister Ziad Baroud points out that the President of the Republic is the official enactor of laws. But who is the President of the Republic today? Is it the half-government or the whole government? This question highlights the ongoing political stalemate in Lebanon. The Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) supports the extension and has been boycotting government meetings since the presidential vacuum.

Dark cloud over Beirut: Hidden cost of private generators
LBCI/April 17/2023
After a brief respite from the COVID-19 pandemic and mask-wearing, Lebanon is facing a new crisis. The sight above the capital city of Beirut is causing concern and prompting a potential return to mask-wearing. With factories closed during the global lockdown, the earth breathed fresh air. However, Lebanon is now facing a similar environmental crisis due to an illegal sector that has spread throughout the country. The main criminal is private generators, which emit hazardous materials and pollutants. After the complete blackout of the country's electricity supply, people started to rely on these generators, which operate for long hours and emit pollutants without any scientific study on their environmental impact. Consequently, Lebanon is experiencing visible air pollution, including a black cloud hanging over Beirut and the Lebanese coast. In addition to generators, there are other sources of pollution, including vehicles and factories that burn fossil fuels and emit harmful chemicals. Despite the grim situation, there are solutions that Lebanon can take to improve its environmental status. One is to develop electricity factories that operate on gas instead of fuel. Another is to shift towards alternative energy sources, such as solar panels, wind turbines, and hydro-power. By taking these simple steps, Lebanon can clean up its environment and pave the way for a brighter and cleaner future.

Report: Paris seeking to convince Sunnis, KSA of Franjieh nomination
Naharnet/April 17/2023
Paris believes that Suleiman Franjieh’s election as president is “still possible,” a media report said on Monday. “It is continuing its efforts in this regard, in the absence of any other candidate who enjoys Hezbollah’s support,” Annahar newspaper reported. “That’s why it is working on convincing the Sunni component to endorse this choice, and on clenching a Saudi approval in order to provide an Arab cover,” the daily added. Hezbollah and its allies are meanwhile saying that “in light of the Iranian-Saudi agreement, Saudi Arabia will not continue with its conditions regarding the presidency, which are currently still impeding Franjieh’s election,” Annahar said. “It will respond to this approach as part of a comprehensive settlement,” the daily added.

Proposed legislation seeks to grant Lebanon's Finance Ministry greater control over banknote printing
LBCI/April 17/2023
In a Tuesday cabinet session, a proposed expedited law aims to modify two significant clauses in the "Code of Money and Credit and the Establishment of the Central Bank." The first amendment involves the fifth article of the code related to banknote denominations, granting the Central Bank the authority to print other banknote denominations exceeding 100,000 without specifying these denominations in the text. The proposed project also impacts Article 47 of the code, which currently grants the Bank of Lebanon the exclusive privilege to issue currency. However, the government's proposal adds a requirement for cabinet approval and a recommendation from the Finance Minister. The crux of the issue, according to insiders, is that passing such a provision in Parliament may be impossible, even if the project is approved by the cabinet. By adding this clause to Article 47, the Central Bank would fall under the authority of the Finance Minister and be subject to the cabinet's decisions regarding the issuance of banknotes. While the privilege of printing the Lebanese Lira remains with the Central Bank according to its estimates, implementing the decision would first be subject to the Finance Minister's discretion in raising the issue to the cabinet or keeping it in their office. Second, it would depend on the cabinet's authority and political inclination to either approve or obstruct the proposal. This raises questions about the Central Bank's independence and freedom to operate under a caretaker government or during a government deadlock. This attempt to place the monetary authority under the executive branch's control in the matter of banknote issuance is unprecedented since the establishment of the Bank of Lebanon in 1963. If the goal is to establish controls between the surplus in the money supply and the ease of printing it, and between the continuing financial deterioration to curb inflation, a similar amendment cannot be measured against the current situation. Neither the presence of Riad Salameh at the Central Bank nor the crisis that Lebanon is experiencing can serve as a basis for amending monetary policy.

Public sector salary increase tops cabinet agenda on Tuesday
LBCI/April 17/2023
Improving public sector salaries tops the agenda for Tuesday's cabinet meeting. The proposed formula suggests giving three additional salaries to retired individuals, in addition to the three they currently receive. For active public sector employees, the proposal suggests giving three or four additional salaries, in addition to their current salary. The formula, which has not yet been finalized, proposes giving between 400,000 to 500,000 Lebanese pounds as transportation allowance for active employees. The proposed salaries would be paid at the current exchange rate of around 87,000 Lebanese pounds to the dollar. For example, if an employee's base salary is two million pounds and they currently receive three times that amount, or six million pounds, their new salary would be 12 million pounds, including three additional salaries. This amounts to approximately $137, not including other allowances and transportation benefits.
Sources suggest that measures will be implemented to secure the revenue for these salary increases, such as raising the customs dollar rate to 60,000 and resuming the operation of the "Nafaa" system. All of these revenues will be in Lebanese pounds, while public sector salaries will be withdrawn in dollars through the exchange platform. This will push the Central Bank to secure them from the black market, leading to an increase in the exchange rate of the dollar, and creating a cycle that can only be ended by implementing reforms. So far, this formula is leading over other proposals, such as giving production allowances of $300 for the first category of employees, $250 for the second, and $200 for the third. This would be added to their current salary, along with five liters of fuel per day. Sources say this proposal is unlikely to be approved due to its high cost. In addition to these developments, concerned sources are discussing the possibility of approving a 500 billion pound allocation for the State Employees Cooperative to cover medical expenses.

Beirut Bar Association undermines freedom, summons Legal Agenda director for criticizing new regulation
LBCI/April 17/2023
The Beirut Bar Association has called lawyer and Legal Agenda executive director Nizar Saghieh to a disciplinary hearing for opposing and denouncing the requirement for lawyers to obtain prior authorization before speaking with the media. On March 3, the Council of the Beirut Bar Association issued a decision to amend Articles 39 to 42 of Chapter Six of the Lawyers' Code of Ethics, which regulate the lawyers' relationships with media outlets, and stipulate the need for lawyers to obtain prior permission from the head of the Bar Association to participate in legal seminars, conferences, interviews, and discussions with media outlets, including social media platforms, and websites, the Coalition to Defend Freedom of Expression said. In a tweet, Saghieh said that the dignity of the Association is achieved by reverting from mistakes and not indulging in it, adding that "the association's amendments not only included subjecting freedom to prior authorization, but also prohibited criticism of the president and members as well." In another tweet, he thanked those who stood in solidarity with freedom and justice, saying that every word is a strong warning in the face of the authority that "destroyed our society and charges for more destruction, and at the same time they are mirrors that reflect their true faces without masks." In a statement, the Alternative Press Syndicate criticized the attempts by the authorities and its proxies to restrict freedom of the press and freedom of expression, resorting to intimidating and repressive methods through several methods. This statement was in conjunction with the summoning of Lara Bitar, editor-in-chief of the "Public Source" website, and Jean Kassir from "Megaphone," and the victory achieved by solidarity with journalists and activists by nullifying the security investigations against journalists and raising the voice against the "militia" methods used to intimidate their colleagues. The Alternative Press Syndicate also said that lawyer Nizar Saghieh is being subjected to a smear campaign and an attempt to damage his image by spreading rumors on social media, coinciding with attempts by the Bar Association to prevent him from conducting a press interview on "Sawt El Shaab" radio station, which the radio refused to submit to, in a pioneering position in defense of freedom of the press. "This indicates attempts to silence Saghieh and behind him the "Legal Agenda" and the lawyers who were a primary source for understanding and analyzing legal and human rights information, as well as a support for defending public cases," expressed the syndicate.

Lebanon's tourism revives as Eid Al-Fitr approaches, expects more than two million visitors in summer: report
LBCI/April 17/2023
Lebanon this year saw a significant blessing, as Easter coincided with Eid Al-Fitr, leaving the chance for many tourists and Lebanese expats to come and spend the long holidays in the country. The month of April witnessed an influx of expatriates despite the security developments in the south, as it became clear that the Lebanese expats were no longer affected by any event that prevented them from coming to Lebanon, as the number of arrivals through Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport exceeded more than 12,000 arrivals. According to what tourism sources told Al Markazia, this number would increase due to Eid al-Fitr at the end of this week. Additionally, the tourist movement indicates that the turnout will be great in the hotel sector, where the operating rate in some hotels exceeds 90 percent, while the restaurant sector will be "full" on Eid Al-Fitr, which will last for four days, and is suitable for reviving the tourism sector. Sources also confirmed to Al Markazia that some airlines had increased the number of their flights to Lebanon or used planes that can accommodate a larger number of passengers, particularly at the end of this week, especially from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Paris, and London. It expects that the number of arrivals will increase this summer compared to last summer, and it does not rule out that the number will exceed two million.

Boushkian during a seminar on "silk & technology": For interaction between classical & modern industries within framework of building an integrated...
NNA/April 17/2023
Houmal Technology Park (HTP) President, Fadi Daou, organized a workshop entitled “Yesterday's Silk, Today's High Tech (Technology)”, at Our Lady’s Church Hall in Houmal with the participation of Caretaker Minister of Industry, MP George Boushkian, Deputy Ceasar Abi Khalil and a number of interested figures. Daou spoke about “Multilane”, which he founded in 2006, and which exports technological products to various countries of the world, announcing his support for Lebanese talents and commending the participation of Minister Boushkian and MP Abi Khalil and all interested figures attending the workshop, "which reflects the importance of technology in our present time." "Just as our ancestors succeeded in manufacturing silk and exporting it to Europe, today we affirm that we carry the torch of the new industry and declare our determination to succeed and excel in it," Daou asserted. For his part, Minister Boushkian praised the “beauty of Lebanon when its people live in a unique interaction and religious partnership in a small homeland, mixed with culture and civilization, spread across the earth.”He added: “I congratulate Mr. Fadi Daou for his initiative to establish a Technology Park in Houmal, not far from the Silk Museum in Bsous, which was established by Mr. Georges Asseily and his wife. We conclude that this region revolves around silk and technology. I believe that organizing a tour of the museum would not have conflicted with the topic of our seminar today. The title of yesterday's silk and today's technology should not be understood as two concepts that contradict each other, but rather that complement each other...Here is the Chinese giant related to the revival of the Silk Road, with its symbolism, benefits, and commercial and reciprocal importance. The competition between major countries is based on the acquisition of technological secrets.” Boushkian continued to note that the largest global companies in terms of size and capital in billions of dollars are computer software and technology companies that can enrich their owners overnight and put them at the top of the list of the richest in the world.
“We, in Lebanon, have moved from a primitive and traditional agro-industrial stage that constituted a paramount need at the time, and I mean silkworm breeding and the silk industry, to an advanced industrial stage that aims to enter modern and technological industries that are competitive in the most demanding markets,” he went on. “In a glimpse of the Fifth Industrial Revolution, it is witnessing a tug of war between technological and digital development, robotics, artificial intelligence, electronic and informatics applications, software and satellites, and between restoring the human mind, human experience and human hands’ role in achieving growth, protecting the environment and reducing pollution rates,” Boushkian added. He highlighted the necessity of interaction between the classical and modern industries in the framework of building an integrated economy for the future
In turn, MP Abi Khalil referred in his word to the “importance of this workshop in terms of its timing and approach to the technological industry, which is considered the modern era of new industries in which educated youth excel and innovate in Lebanon and abroad."
He continued to define the concept of the “Special Economic Zone”, and the tax and customs incentives and exemptions that investors and initiative owners obtain, saying: "The owner of a geographical area that he intends to convert into a special economic zone, is given a license on this basis, provided that it is allocated for the establishment of transformational, integrative and technological industries. With the decline in demand for real estate, real estate developers and contractors must move towards projects that embrace Hi-Tech industries."
He also noted that Lebanon exported more technological industries than Israel in the years 1974, 1975 and 1976. He added: “The national currency had great purchasing power against the US dollar. However, the ‘silk’ policy built a rentier economy, trade and services. At the expense of production in the beginning of 1992, it wiped out growth, competitiveness and productivity.”Abi Khalil concluded by hoping that “Lebanon would regain its role and position on the Arab and international arena, because the industry has distinguished, innovative Lebanese minds that are capable of growth and development."

United States and the United Nations Announce Beginning of Implementation of Material Support Program for the ISF
NNA/April 17/2023
On April 18, 2023, U.S. Embassy Beirut and the United Nations will commence cash distributions under the “Livelihood Support Program.” The first tranche of this program, valued at $16.5 million, will disburse temporary financial support for Internal Security Forces (ISF) personnel. These payments will provide eligible ISF members with $100 per month for a period of six months. This program will help alleviate some of the economic hardship faced by ISF personnel who are exerting tremendous efforts to serve their country, its people, and the residents on its lands, ultimately contributing to the overall security and stability of the country. As a part of the U.S.-funded program, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) is working with a nationwide financial service provider to disburse these funds to eligible ISF members. ISF members will receive text messages from the financial service provider as of April 18 for three days that their first disbursement is ready as soon as the ISF member receives the text message. The initiation of cash disbursements is a concrete demonstration of the United States’ ongoing commitment to supporting the ISF’s critical efforts to uphold the rule of law and defend the people of Lebanon. The Lebanese Armed Forces will benefit from this U.S.-sponsored, UNDP-implemented program, with initial disbursements beginning very soon.

Hajjar on the Saudi-Iranian agreement: Either we are partners in the settlement, or it will be at our expense!
NNA/April 17/2023
Caretaker Minister of Social Affairs, Hector Hajjar, tweeted today,: "After the Saudi-Iranian agreement under Chinese auspices, the region is witnessing an intense Arab movement led by Saudi Arabia, with the aim of addressing the crises resulting from the war in Syria and establishing conditions for the next stage for Syria's return to the embrace of the League of Arab States, and ofcourse the issue of the displaced Syrians is at the heart of the meetings...The train of settlements has started, despite some Arab and international opposition. Our unified political stance and diplomatic action are very important to explain our sovereign point of view, affirm our constants, and urge the League of Arab States to support us in finding a quick solution to return the displaced Syrians to their homes and ease the burdens of the Syrian displacement on our lands...Either we be partners in the settlement production, or it will be at our expense!"

Axis of Resistance Missiles and Encrypted Messages
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al Awsat/April 17/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/117482/117482/
Although it was the most serious incident since the 2006 war, the April 7 missile attack on Israel from South Lebanon did not warrant the attention it garnered. Missiles have been being fired at Israel, and it has been retaliating, since the 1970s, after Lebanon signed the Cairo Agreement of 1969 that allowed formally recognized armed Palestinian factions, as well as other Palestinian militants and militias loyal to Syria, Iraq and Libya, to operate as they pleased in South Lebanon.
This is not a novel development then. Indeed, violating the sovereignty of Lebanon, from both sides of the border, is the natural outcome of lacking a state or government. The most severe ramifications are denunciations yelled out from here or there that swiftly subside, and hollow demands for respecting international resolutions, especially Resolution 1701. Meanwhile, the Lebanese state and government, as well as all the country’s politicians, know that we have no grounds for making complaints, as Lebanon never implemented it. Palestinian groups and Hezbollah have unfettered access to arms in the South, where no one has the authority to question them or hold them accountable despite the presence of forces from UNIFIL and the Lebanese army.
What is important about the attack is what it means and suggests about the political climate in the region following the Saudi-Iranian agreement. A straightforward conclusion is that the attack indicates that Iran, as well as its allies and proxies in the region, understand the implications of this agreement. No one understands them better than its most potent proxy and militia, Hezbollah. Its Secretary-General openly admits that the party takes orders from Iran and is an integral part of its regional security infrastructure.
It is patently obvious that Hezbollah controls Lebanon in general and its strongholds in particular, especially those close to the border. Thus, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to launch so many missiles toward Israel from its southern strongholds without the party knowing about it. No one disagrees that Hezbollah, and by extension its primary sponsor Tehran, approved the attack. This leads us to conclude that the pillars Iran has built its regional policy on since the mullahs came to power in 1979 are founded on two principles.
The first principle is avoiding direct confrontation and exerting control through proxies. Iran has consolidated its influence in some regional countries through alliances with local communities at the heart of their national fabric. As they tear the national fabric apart, these factions claim to be independent patriotic forces that make their decisions freely. Following this doctrine has allowed Iran to claim it is innocent of the actions of its proxies and that it complies fully with the agreements it has concluded.
Hezbollah has emulated Iran’s pursuit of plausible deniability. Denying its knowledge of the recent attack is consistent with its policy of leading from behind, which has shaped its course for the past 40 years. This tactic allows Hezbollah to call the shots without being held accountable for the implications.
While the party claims to abide by the maritime border demarcation agreement with Israel, which benefits both countries, and it is keen on benefiting from the agreement, it is simultaneously committed to providing political, security and military support for Hamas and the Axis of Resistance, thereby “uniting the arenas of battle.”The party adopts the same method for managing domestic politics. Hezbollah calls for dialogue and compromise (as it sees fit) to reap the economic fruits it brings. It also seeks to make use of the attempts to appease the Gulf countries by rhetorically committing to reform, as it is determined to benefit from Arab aid if it arrives without actually changing anything.
The second principle is exploiting the Palestinian cause, which it renders a Trojan horse that consolidates its influence in the region without ending the debate around how genuine they are in their concern for the Palestinians. Tehran adopted the slogan that had been raised by many Arab regimes, “no cry is louder than the cry of battle.” It considers the solution to the Palestinian question is removing Israel from the map of the Middle East through military resistance, portraying anyone who does not share its definition of resistance against Israel as a traitor.
Today, Iran is trying to rekindle its exploitation of the Palestinian cause. It rejects the Abrahamic Accords and the course of normalization in principle. It sees them as a threat and has done all that it can to freeze them, limit their spread, and end Israel’s dream of establishing a regional front against it. The recent incident, as well as the developments that preceded and followed it, affirm that Israel has missiles from 5 fronts pointed at it: Lebanon, the West Bank, Gaza, the Golan Heights, and especially within Tel Aviv.
The Iranians have sent Israel a clear message, and it comes at a time when Tehran believes that Israel is weak and drained by domestic challenges. Iran is warning Israel and Netanyahu against rushing to launch attacks on Tehran because of its nuclear activity or to avoid its domestic crisis. We should keep in mind that the attack also comes within the framework of retaliating to Israeli operations in Iran or Syria.
It is clear that the emerging tensions on Israel’s borders benefit Iran, as does the fanaticism of the current Israeli government, which believes in “the exclusive and inalienable right of the Jewish people to all the territory of Israel.” Indeed, the Israeli government’s attempts at passing racist legislation and the brutality with which it treats Palestinians strengthen Iran’s arguments for expansion and interventions. In a sentence: Both Netanyahu and Iran are trying to evade their domestic crisis, and they mutually empower one another, though without intending to.
Amid the imbalance in the region and the disintegration of most of the countries of the Arab Levant, it is currently embroiled in the shadow war between Israel and Iran. The first thing that comes to mind is: Which Israel are we talking about? The Israel of Netanyahu, Itamar Ben Gvir, and Bezalel Smortic, or the Israel of Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz; in a nutshell, Tel Aviv or Jerusalem? These are the most consequential questions at this point.
Regardless of the answers, Israel is no longer in the back seat of the attempt to neutralize the threat of nuclear Iran. It has adopted a new formula, targeting Iran directly, not just its proxies. On the other hand, if Netanyahu wants new countries to join the Abraham Accords, he has to manage the Palestinian issue intelligently. However, he is unwilling or (after his crazy alliance with extremists who seem to have a divergent agenda that could add to his burdens) perhaps unable to do so. Indeed, his allies have put into question Israel’s commitment to the shared values that have been and will remain the pillar of the close relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv.
Regarding Iran, we should not expect Tehran to recalibrate overnight. This process needs time, and Tehran has mastered the art of biding its time in anticipation of developments that change things. Predictions of the trajectory this course will take are premature. On the other hand, the talks in Sanaa between a Saudi-Omani delegation and the Houthis, as well as the statement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry that followed, paint a very different picture. Indeed, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said it hopes that “the changes in the region will facilitate the persistence of the ceasefire in Yemen until a sustainable political solution is reached, while the Houthis and the Yemeni government exchanged hundreds of prisoners. Sadly, it seems that the Levant in general and Lebanon in particular will remain in the back seat; the winds of change that are sweeping the region will not arrive anytime soon.

Dying Cypriot Arabic Language
William Christou/New Lines Magazine/April 17/2023
How an overlooked community kept an unusual tongue alive and why it matters that it’s disappearing
They call themselves “the stranded.”
Geographically, the 300 or so residents of the village of Kormakitis (pronounced “core-ma-jitis”) are sequestered in the northwestern corner of the island of Cyprus. Politically, they are isolated: They were some of the only non-Turkish Cypriots to remain in the occupied north after Turkey invaded the island in 1974. More than anything else, though, the village and its inhabitants are stranded in time — both culturally and linguistically.
Kormakitis, with its hemmed-in houses, seems to guard the secrets of an earlier, simpler era. The bulbous clay ovens and peeling stucco walls of the village give way to fields of carob trees, biding their time before the summer harvest. Men sit idly in the town’s cafenea and play backgammon as the morning turns to afternoon. On the weekends, children and grandchildren come to visit, doubling the village’s population for two busy days every week.
The villagers, like the narrow streets of Kormakitis, are steeped in another era. Mostly septuagenarians and older, they are the guardians of a dying language.
“I love this village. I want to stay here and die here. I don’t want to leave this village,” Ketoula, a 78-year-old resident of Kormakitis, said in Cypriot-Maronite Arabic.
Ketoula and the other residents of the village are Cypriot-Maronite Christians, a religious minority in Cyprus believed to have immigrated from the Lebanese village of Kour over 1,000 years ago.
They are also some of the world’s last native speakers of Cypriot-Maronite Arabic, a unique language indigenous to Kormakitis.
Linguists say that Cypriot Arabic, a little-known tongue that has survived for centuries only as an oral tradition, is severely endangered. According to them, if nothing changes, it will cease to exist within the next 50 years.
There are fewer than 1,000 people who can speak the language proficiently, with no native speakers under the age of 40. Linguists and activists are racing to save, or at least document, the language before it disappears. Their efforts have been complicated by the division of Cyprus, following Turkey’s 1974 invasion and installation of a Turkish-backed government in the north, recognized by no country except Turkey.
Cypriot Arabic is what is called a “peripheral Arabic dialect,” a dialect separated from an Arabic-speaking context and developed alongside a non-Semitic language. Maltese is another example, though it is not in danger of disappearing like Cypriot Arabic.
Cypriot Arabic reflects the history of Kormakitis and its Maronite inhabitants. Some of the words, like “bokhib,” “amoot” and “ahrub” (“I love,” “I die” and “I leave”), are easily identifiable as Arabic, even if their pronunciation and conjugation have undergone some mutation after a millennium of isolation. Other words are loaned from Cypriot Greek, a product of continual exposure to Greek-Cypriot communities.
Other distinguishing features of Cypriot Arabic are the dropping of certain letters found in Modern Standard Arabic (MSA), such as the pharyngeal “h,” the hard “qaf” and all emphatic consonants like “daad.” There is also no differentiation between long and short vowels, a feature found in MSA and other Arabic dialects.
The language relies heavily on Cypriot Greek for certain vocabulary. The numeral system mirrors MSA up to 10, after which it switches to Greek. More modern concepts are described in Cypriot Greek. All professions, with the exception of traditional occupations like farming and teaching, borrow their Cypriot Greek equivalents.
Because Cypriot Arabic is spoken within small communities, or more often within family units, certain terminology has not kept up with the pace of innovation in modern life.
“Cypriot Arabic [remains] restricted to familiar and ordinary areas of interaction and never developed a vocabulary to refer to new concepts,” co-authors Spyros Armostis and Marilena Karyolemou, linguists at the University of Cyprus, recently wrote in an article titled, “Contact-induced Change in an Endangered Language: The Case of Cypriot Arabic.” Given that all speakers of Cypriot Arabic are also native speakers of Cypriot Greek, they simply default to Greek to fill in the lexical gaps of Cypriot Arabic.
Scholarship on Cypriot Arabic is relatively young, and linguists are still struggling to understand the language. The first in-depth fieldwork on the language was undertaken in the 1970s.
Linguists’ understanding of the language and its evolution is hampered by the fact that it was entirely oral until 2007. Prior to the proposal of a mostly Romanized alphabet in 2007, Cypriot Arabic had no writing system. There are no historical works of Cypriot Arabic literature to study, and the oldest written resource is a scholar’s transcription of spoken short stories in 1985.
As a result, linguists are unable to trace the historical evolution of Cypriot Arabic. The understanding of the language is thus dynamic and its status is still a topic of hot debate.
Is Cypriot Arabic truly a Semitic language that has merely borrowed Cypriot Greek words and forced them to conform to its grammar? Or is it rather some sort of blend between old Lebanese Arabic and Cypriot Greek? Is the substantial presence of Cypriot Greek words within Cypriot Arabic a form of code-switching for the small, beleaguered community or is it a sign of linguistic decay?
While confusing for scholars, this ambiguity gives space to speakers to innovate, because the language has very few formal rules.
In 2014, for example, Cypriot Arabic speakers decided that they no longer wanted to rely on Greek for their counting system. Instead, they decided to create their own numbers by looking at other Arabic dialects and devised a new system accordingly.
Ketoula and the other residents of Kormakitis have one foot in Cyprus and another in Lebanon, which they consider to be their spiritual and ancestral homeland. Pictures of Saint Charbel, one of the most important figures in Lebanese Christianity, are hung in people’s homes throughout the village.
“We feel close to Lebanon, it feels like my home. What helps connect us with Kour and with Lebanon is the language,” Ketoula said, noting with some pride that she has visited Saint Charbel Church in Lebanon, where the saint’s body is entombed, three times.
The name of Kormakitis itself is believed to derive from a sense of nostalgia for home in Lebanon. Folklore says those first waves of migrants from Kour would longingly repeat “nahna ijina wa Kour majit” (“we came, but Kour didn’t come [with us]).”
Church services in the village are conducted half in Arabic and half in Greek, and the Maronite archbishop of Cyprus usually hails from Lebanon. As its emblem, the local football club has chosen the same green cedar that adorns Lebanon’s flag.
While the connection to Lebanon and the Lebanese Maronite church remains strong even among the younger generations, the language itself has failed to take root.
“My son and daughter forgot the language because they were separated from the village,” Ketoula said. “The next generation should learn, but they don’t have time.”
Ketoula said that she feels some pressure as one of the last custodians of Cypriot Arabic. She was unable to teach her children their mother tongue because of the Turkish invasion.
“The language is going to die, which makes me sad,” she said.
When Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 under the pretext of protecting the island’s Turkish-Cypriot ethnic minority, most of the residents of Kormakitis were forcibly displaced. Those who did stay were separated from their children, some of whom were already in the south during the invasion, while others were taken to safety afterward beyond the Green Line, officially known as the United Nations Buffer Zone, which separates the Turkish region from the rest of Cyprus.
The displaced children of Kormakitis were housed in shelters across Cyprus, sponsored by the Maronite Church. Others, particularly girls, were taken in by schools run by Franciscan nuns, which provided education for children displaced by the Turkish invasion.
“All of the children were baptized and were born in the village, but after primary school they went to Nicosia for education prior to the invasion. After the invasion, they could not come back,” said Ioanna Kasapi, a resident of Kormakitis now in her late 80s.
Kasapi recalled how, for the first year and a half after the invasion, she could only meet her children at the Green Line, where they were able to see one another but not physically embrace. Later, as a religious minority, Cypriot Maronites could visit the village by applying for special permission from the northern Cypriot authorities, but they were not allowed to stay for extended periods of time, making their displacement permanent.
This dislocation extended to the current generation of Maronites, some of whom have never known a life in Kormakitis.
Still, despite the restrictions placed by the Turkish occupation on visiting the village, some residents did all they could to ensure their children had a bond with Kormakitis.
Jovanna Yiouselli spent her childhood summers visiting her grandparents in Kormakitis. Every summer, she and her cousins would descend upon the village at once and spend a month with her grandparents, far away from the city life of Nicosia.
“Kormakitis felt like a safe zone. Our parents and grandparents made it feel like heaven,” said Yiouselli, a 31-year-old economic diplomacy officer with the Cyprus Chamber of Commerce and an activist in the Cypriot Maronite community.
“But now that I’m an adult, I’m like ‘Oh, my God,’ it must have been so scary for my parents,” she said, laughing.
To get to Kormakitis as a child, Yiouselli and her parents would have to pass through four different Turkish military checkpoints, each one requesting a different set of documents and issuing a different set of stamps. Her parents would spend the weeks prior applying for special permits for their summer visits. Once, her father was arrested by Turkish soldiers on his way back to Nicosia after a flat tire made his departure later than usual.
But Yiouselli has few memories of the checkpoints and the Turkish military. Her parents would spend the car ride to Kormakitis distracting the children, doing their best to establish a sense of normalcy.
Yiouselli describes spending time in the village as “a sleepover every day.” During the day, she and her cousins would go to the beach or visit other relatives, sometimes helping them with the harvest. It was here where she could connect with her Maronite identity and listen to her grandparents speak the language.
Once back in the south, she would have to reacclimate to life outside the village. She would have to remember to act like a Greek Cypriot and “behave like an Orthodox,” attending Orthodox church services at school and participating in lessons about a culture that was not her own. Otherwise, she would risk standing out to her peers.
Now that Cypriots are able to freely cross the Green Line, Yiouselli no longer faces a mountain of bureaucracy to visit Kormakitis. Yet the occupation still creates barriers to the preservation of Cypriot Arabic.
In particular, it has made the Cypriot government hesitant to set up programs to protect the language.
“The real problem is symbolic. If anything is financed officially by the Cyprus government, it would mean a kind of recognition of the occupying authorities,” Karyolemou explained.
Though Cyprus did recognize Cypriot Arabic as a minority language in 2008, it did so with the caveat that it was not obligated to perform activities that ceded its sovereignty. In effect, the government will not institute programs to protect the language as long as Kormakitis is under Turkish occupation.
Community leaders have taken preservation efforts upon themselves, organizing a weeklong summer camp for children and teens that runs in August in Kormakitis. The camp, called “Xki Fi Sanna” or “Speak in Our Language” (equivalent to “hki fi lisanna” in modern Lebanese Arabic), has been held every year since 2007, except during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The organizers of the camp collaborated with the nomadic Sami community in Finland, which experienced its own language revival in the 20th century, to learn tips on how to resurrect Cypriot Arabic. The organizers also receive some indirect funding from the Cypriot government.
“It was 30 to 40 children, and we would have a day school with fun activities to get the children to learn to love the dialect. The basic stuff,” said Yiouselli. “The summer camp was mainly focused on the traditions of the village through the language.”
The provision of educational materials is progressing, and the first Cypriot-Arabic textbook has recently been published. An oral history project documenting the language and life stories of the people of Kormakitis is also in the works. So far, the creators have over 200 hours of material.
To promote Cypriot-Arabic literacy, a few pages of the Maronite Press, a community digest, began to be written in Cypriot Arabic, using a prototype of the alphabet proposed in 2007. The Cypriot Arabic section of the digest continued until 2013, but was stopped after the author’s retirement.
Outside the summer camp, Yiouselli has teamed up with other ethnic minorities in Cyprus, including Armenians and Latin Catholics, to advocate for minority rights. By creating educational programs that are more inclusive of their heritage and documenting their histories, she hopes that their cultural and linguistic traditions can be preserved.
Still, Karyolemou said that these efforts alone are not enough to slow the decline of the language. To save it, Cypriot Maronites must go back to its source: in Kormakitis.
“It’s very difficult for a small language, which has no prospect of being an official language somewhere, to survive. My only hope is that young people or young families with small children will go back to the village … and they will get to use the language,” she said.
In 2017, the Turkish-Cypriot government called for Maronites and certain other displaced Cypriots to return to the north following the collapse of talks to unify the island. A few individuals and even one family have taken up the offer and have reestablished roots in Kormakitis.
There is now talk of setting up a Maronite school in the village, in the hope that a new generation could grow up in the community and breathe life back into the dying language.
But, by and large, Maronites have not heeded the call to return. Whether they have set up their own lives outside of Kormakitis or object to living in the country’s occupied north, the prospect of repopulating the village is remote.
And, outside the village walls, the chances for Cypriot Arabic’s survival are slim.
“By losing this [language], you lose part of history, which you could have preserved. Our goal is to at least maintain our history,” said Yiouselli. “If we don’t care, if we don’t claim what’s ours, who will do it for us?”
https://newlinesmag.com/essays/the-quest-to-save-the-dying-cypriot-arabic-language/

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 17-18/2023
Khamenei to Iran's Armed Forces: Don’t Settle for Any Level of Power
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 April, 2023
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called on the armed forces commanders to move forward in deterring the enemies and not to settle for any level of power. Hinting at the protests taking place in the country since September, Khamenei stressed that the armed forces should be prepared and vigilant against plotters, reported Iran’s official news agency IRNA. “Arrogant powers are waging a conflict from behind the scenes wherever it benefits them,” he said. He added: “Paying close attention to the enemy's five- or ten-year schemes is necessary, but mid- and long-term plots should be considered and monitored.” He stated: “The Americans had interests in Iraq and Afghanistan, but their ultimate goal was Iran, and due to the solid foundations of the revolution, they failed in their adventures as well as their ultimate goal.”“At no stage should one ignore the enemy's machinations and plots.”Iranian cities are preparing for a military parade on Tuesday marking Army Day. Commander of the Air Force Hamid Vahedi said more than 40 fighter jets are set to fly in the skies over the capital Tehran, according to IRNA. “The parade on 29th of Farvardin (April 18) will be different this year than previous ones,” he said, saying Iran boasts more than 40 types of jets, including the Saeqa, Kosar, F5, F4, F14, F7, MiG-29, Sukhoi-24. He added that improving the expertise of pilots, evaluating the level of readiness of units, and ensuring the protection of the borders are among the other goals of the aerial parade.

Iranian Government Considers Comprehensive Plan against Sanctions
London - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 April, 2023
The Iranian government is considering a plan for a comprehensive confrontation against international sanctions.Government spokesman Ali Bahadori-Jahromi said that drafting a comprehensive project to confront "illegal" sanctions is on the government's agenda. IRNA reported that Bahadori-Jahromi explained the plan, which revolves around supporting Iranian citizens affected by sanctions, incrementally reducing the effects of sanctions, and designing a legal framework to take corresponding steps against illegal international behavior. Meanwhile, the US State Department set a reward of up to $15 million for receiving information on the illicit financial network of Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and its branches, including the Quds Force. The reward dates back mainly to September 2019 and highlights the role of the IRGC in financing many terrorist attacks and operations worldwide through the Quds Force unit and regional agents. The US Department of State is offering rewards for information on the sources of revenue for the IRGC, al-Quds, its branches, or its critical financial facilitation mechanisms, including the illicit financial schemes, oil-for-money, and front companies engaged in international activity on the IRGC's behalf.
The US foreign measures pursue the official financial institutions conducting trade transactions with the IRGC and investigate how the IRGC transfers funds and materials to its terrorist and militia proxies and partners. The move also targets IRGC donors or financial facilitators, financial institutions, or exchange houses facilitating Guards transactions, such as businesses or investments owned or controlled by IRGC or its financiers. The plan aims to undermine any "criminal schemes involving IRGC members and supporters, which financially benefit the organization." Last Wednesday, the IRGC intelligence service announced in a vague statement foreign operations to return hundreds of millions of dollars of frozen Iranian assets abroad. Iranian websites quoted an IRGC statement reporting that the group retrieved about $560 million of the financial pledges of the Chadormalu Mining and Industrial Company in Yazd province. Bank Sepah, which is linked to the military, and the National Steel Company are among the major investors in the group. Earlier this month, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin's special assistant, Igor Levitin, ways to accelerate establishing "the path that started to reduce the influence of the dollar in regional and international economic exchanges." They also discussed thwarting Western sanctions by ditching the dollar in their bilateral transactions, which would weaken the US currency. The two officials discussed cooperation in various economic fields, especially banking exchanges. Negotiations between the United States and Iran to revive the nuclear deal have stalled since the EU's last attempt failed last September. Reviving the nuclear deal would lift primary sanctions the previous US administration reintroduced after withdrawing from the agreement. Iran must abandon all nuclear steps that violate the terms of the agreement for the US to lift its sanctions.

Iran Foreign Ministry: Tehran officially invites Saudi king to visit country
Arab News/April 17, 2023
DUBAI: Iran has officially invited Saudi Arabia's king to visit the country, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Monday, after the two regional rivals agreed to resume diplomatic ties following a China-brokered agreement in March. "Iranian President (Ebrahim Raisi) has sent an invitation to the Saudi king," Nasser Kanaani told a televised news conference. Technical delegations from both countries are preparing to officially reopen their missions.

Son of Iran's last shah set to make first visit to Israel
JERUSALEM (AP)/Sun, April 16, 2023
Iran's exiled crown prince is scheduled to come to Israel this week on a visit that reflects the warm ties his father once had with Israel and the current state of hostility between Israel and the Islamic Republic.
Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah to rule Iran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, said Sunday that he will be delivering “a message of friendship from the Iranian people.”He is set to participate in Israel's annual Holocaust memorial ceremony on Monday night, said Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel, who will host him. He is also set to visit a desalination plant, see the Western Wall and meet representatives of the local Bahai community and Israeli Jews of Iranian descent, she said. Gamliel praised the “brave decision” by Pahlavi to make what she said would be his first visit to Israel. “The crown prince symbolizes a leadership different from that of the ayatollah regime, and leads values of peace and tolerance, in contrast to the extremists who rule Iran,” she said.
Pahlavi left Iran at age 17 for military flight school in the U.S., just before his cancer-stricken father Mohammad Reza Pahlavi abandoned the throne for exile. The revolution followed, with the creation of the Islamic Republic, the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the sweeping away of the last vestiges of the American-backed monarchy. Pahlavi, who still resides in the U.S., has called for a peaceful revolution that would replace clerical rule with a parliamentary monarchy, enshrine human rights and modernize its state-run economy.
Whether he can galvanize support for a return to power is unknown. His father ruled lavishly and repressively and benefitted from a CIA-supported coup in 1953. The late shah also had close diplomatic and military ties with Israel.
That ended in 1979, when the Iranian revolution’s leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, declared Israel an “enemy of Islam” and cut all ties. Today, the countries are arch-enemies. Israel considers Iran to be its greatest threat, citing the country's calls for Israel's destruction, its support of hostile militant groups on Israel's borders and its nuclear program. Iran denies accusations by Israel and its western allies that it is pursuing a nuclear bomb. “I want the people of Israel to know that the Islamic Republic does not represent the Iranian people. The ancient bond between our people can be rekindled for the benefit of both nations,” Pahlavi said on Twitter.

US helicopter raid in Syria targets Daesh leader
AP/April 17, 2023
BEIRUT: A helicopter raid by US forces in northern Syria early on Monday resulted in the “probable death” of a senior leader of the militant Daesh group, the US military said. The US Central Command said in a statement that the Daesh leader, who was not named, was “responsible for planning terror attacks in the Middle East and Europe.” Two other “armed individuals” were killed along with the target of the raid, CENTCOM said. The statement said no civilians or US troops were hurt in the operation. Syria’s White Helmets, a civil defense group operating in opposition-held areas of northern Syria, said it transported two people wounded during the raid to a local hospital, which later said they had died. A third person was killed when the US forces landed for the raid, the White Helmets said. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which partners with the US in anti-Daesh operations in northeast Syria, said that the operation was launched from a base near the town of Kobani and targeted a military site belonging to a Turkish-backed armed opposition group, Suqour Al-Shamal, in the village of village of Suwayda in the region of Jarablus, near the Turkish border. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, reported that the raid had resulted in the arrest of a senior Daesh leader and killed three people. The US military made no mention of any arrests. The Observatory said “violent clashes” took place after the helicopter landed, the first such landing this year. At least 900 US troops are deployed in Syria, along with an undisclosed number of contractors. The Daesh group, which swept through Iraq and Syria in 2014, taking control of large swaths of territory, was defeated in Syria in 2019, but sleeper cells maintain a presence and periodically stage attacks on military and civilian targets.

Syria’s foreign minister visits Algeria, Tunisia to revive diplomatic ties
AP/April 17, 2023
ALGIERS: Syria’s chief diplomat has started a visit to Algeria and Tunisia as part of efforts to revive diplomatic relationships in the Arab world, more than a decade after his country was globally isolated amid President Bashar Assad’s crackdown on mass protests against his rule.
Foreign Minister Faisal Mikdad was welcomed on Saturday in the lounge of Algiers airport by his Algerian counterpart Ahmed Attaf. In remarks broadcast by Algerian public television. Mikdad insisted that “relations between the two brotherly countries exist and will continue to exist … beyond the vicissitudes of the situation.”He added: “My visit will be an opportunity for discussions between the two countries on the latest developments in the region. We need to strengthen this bilateral relationship.”Algeria is one of the few Arab countries that did not cut off relations with Syria during the civil war that followed the 2011 uprising. Mikdad notably praised Algeria’s help after the devastating Feb. 6 earthquake that killed tens of thousands in Syria and Turkiye. He was also bearing a message from Assad to his Algerian counterpart, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, the Algerian official APS news agency reported. Assad consolidated control over most of the country in recent years and Syria’s neighbors have begun to take steps toward rapprochement. Mikdad also made a recent trip to Egypt in a step toward normalizing ties. He is scheduled to head to Tunisia on Monday, where he is to reopen Syria’s embassy. Tunisian President Kais Saied announced earlier this month that he had directed the country’s Foreign Ministry to appoint a new ambassador to Syria. His move was reciprocated by the Syrian government, according to the SANA news agency.

Ukraine rejects Iraqi offer to mediate talks with Russia
AP/April 17, 2023
BAGHDAD: Iraq on Monday offered to mediate between Ukraine and Russia to try and find an end to the war in Europe, but Ukraine’s top diplomat rejected the offer during a rare visit to Baghdad. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba reiterated his country’s position that it would not engage in any peace talks unless Russia withdraws from all Ukrainian territory.The Kremlin wants Kyiv to acknowledge Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, which Moscow took over in 2014, and to also recognize September’s annexation of the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine has rejected those demands and insists it won’t hold talks with Russia until Moscow’s troops pull back from all occupied territories. In Iraq, Kuleba met with his Iraqi counterpart, Fuad Hussein. It was the first visit by a Ukrainian official to Baghdad since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the first visit by a Ukrainian foreign minister in 11 years. Hussein pointed to Iraq’s years of experience with war and conflict, as well as with hosting negotiations between hostile parties — such as the recent Saudi-Iran talks. Baghdad had hosted several rounds of the talks between Riyadh and Tehran before the negotiations broke down. They later resumed with China as mediator, resulting in last month’s announcement that the two regional rivals would restore diplomatic relations. Baghdad “has experience in communication with countries that have tension between them” and “is ready to be in service of peace,” Hussein said in a press conference Monday. “The continuation of the war will be dangerous not only to the two countries but to the world.”Iraq, like much of the Middle East, historically relies heavily on grain imported from Ukraine, and consumers have suffered from rising food prices since the beginning of the war.
Kuleba said that while Ukraine sees “Iraq as a country that is capable of building bridges... Russia is on the offensive ... and this is the biggest hurdle on the way to peace.”“We need Russia to agree with a very simple fact that it has to stop the war and withdraw,” Kuleba added. The current Iraqi government is seen as close to Iran, which the US has accused of supplying drones to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Iran has acknowledged sending drones to Russia but says it was before the war. Iraq also maintains close ties with the United States, which has a strong influence over its financial sector. Iraq’s foreign currency reserves have been housed at the US Federal Reserve since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein. While rejecting Baghdad’s offer of mediation, Kuleba said Ukraine hopes to strengthen ties with Iraq and that his visit Monday was part of an effort to “reinvent Ukrainian-Iraqi relations.”

China Favors Palestinians, Israel Resuming Peace Talks
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 April, 2023
China is highly concerned about heightened Israeli-Palestinian conflict and favors the two sides resuming peace talks as soon as possible, Foreign Minister Qin Gang said on Monday. Qin, in separate phone calls with his Israeli and Palestinian counterparts, said China is willing to play a constructive role in promoting peace in the region, according to statements posted by China's foreign ministry. US-brokered peace talks aimed at establishing a Palestinian state in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza -territories Israel captured in a 1967 war - have stalled for almost a decade and show no sign of revival.

Arab League Calls for Immediate Ceasefire in Sudan
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 April, 2023
The Arab League on Sunday called for a ceasefire in Sudan, urging the Arab ambassadors in Khartoum to act for the restoration of stability by contacting all parties. The League expressed deep regret for the casualties in the clashes and extended sincere condolences to the victims’ families as well as the Sudanese people. In a final statement issued after an emergency meeting on Sunday to discuss the recent developments in the country upon an invitation by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the Arab League stressed the necessity of an "immediate ceasefire … to protect the civilians and the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Sudan."The meeting was held at the level of permanent representatives. The League also emphasized the need for a return to peaceful negotiations and to "establish a new phase that fulfills the ambitions of the brotherly Sudanese people and contributes to reinforcing political and economic security and stability.”
It warned of serious repercussions of the violent escalation in Sudan, "the scope of which is difficult to determine internally and regionally." The organization said it is ready "to exert efforts to help Sudan end the crisis in a sustainable manner, in a way that serves the interest of the Sudanese people." It further expressed readiness to closely monitor the Sudanese developments and to intensify Arab calls to end the crisis. The League, at the level of permanent representatives, is in "permanent session to follow up the developments in Sudan,” it said. It invited all Arab ambassadors in Khartoum to coordinate with each other and establish consistent communication with the Sudanese authorities and all relevant parties to provide the necessary support for the restoration of stability. It further called on the ambassadors to coordinate with the General Secretariat and the State President of the Council at the ministerial level (Egypt).
Concluding the statement, the League called on Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit to take necessary measures to implement the statement.

Fighting rages in Sudan as death toll climbs to 97
AFP/April 17, 2023
KHARTOUM: Explosions rocked the Sudanese capital Khartoum Monday as fighting between the regular army and paramilitaries raged for a third day with the death toll rising to nearly 100. The violence erupted Saturday after weeks of power struggles between Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, who commands the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The raging battles triggered a wide international outcry with appeals for an immediate cease-fire and dialogue. “The death toll among civilians in clashes since it began on Saturday ... has reached 97,” the doctors’ union said in a statement early Monday, noting the figure does not include all casualties as many could not reach hospitals due to difficulties in movement. It said hundreds of civilians were wounded in the clashes. Loud gunfire and deafening explosions echoed across the streets of Khartoum Monday morning as clashes continued, according to AFP journalists. A stench of gunpowder lingered as plumes of thick black smoke emanated from damaged buildings, according to witnesses. The fighting broke out after bitter disagreements between Burhan and Daglo over the planned integration of the RSF into the regular army — a key condition for a final deal aimed at ending a crisis since the 2021 military coup they orchestrated together. The coup has already derailed a transition to civilian rule following the 2019 ouster of president Omar Al-Bashir and piled on a spiraling economic crisis in Sudan.
The clashes forced Sudanese to hunker down in their homes with fears of a prolonged conflict that could plunge the country into deeper chaos, dashing hopes for return to civilian rule. Since Saturday, the two sides have traded blame over who started the fighting. Each has claimed the upper hand by declaring control of key sites, including the airport and the presidential palace but none of their claims could be independently verified. Fighting also raged in other parts of Sudan including the western Darfur region and in the eastern border state of Kassala. The Saturday killing of three staff from the World Food Programme in North Darfur clashes prompted the agency to suspend all operations in the impoverished country. Medics have pleaded for safe corridors for ambulances and a cease-fire to treat the victims because the streets are too dangerous for transporting casualties to hospital. The RSF was created under Bashir in 2013, emerging from the Janjaweed militia that his government unleashed against non-Arab ethnic minorities in Darfur a decade earlier, drawing accusations of war crimes. The latest violence sparked by the two generals has reflected the deep-seated divisions between the regular army and the RSF. Despite the wide calls for a cease-fire, the two generals appeared in no mood for talks. Burhan, who rose through the ranks under the three-decade rule of now-jailed Bashir, has said the coup was “necessary” to include more factions in politics. Daglo later called the coup a “mistake” that failed to bring about change and reinvigorated remnants of Bashir’s regime ousted by the army in 2019 following mass protests.

ICRC: Unilateral release of 104 former detainees from Abha to Sanaa, Aden
Arab News/April 17, 2023
DUBAI: The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has facilitated the transfer of 104 former detainees that Saudi Arabia unilaterally released after three days of prisoner exchanges between the Yemeni government and the Houthis. The Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen confirmed Saudi Arabia’s unilateral release of 104 Houthi prisoners, Saudi state TV has reported. Coalition spokesman Brigadier General Turki Al-Maliki announced the completion of the exchanging prisoners and detainees process in a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency. “This initiative comes as an extension of previous humanitarian initiatives by the Kingdom related to prisoners, and supports efforts to stabilize the truce to create an atmosphere of dialogue between Yemeni parties in a bid to reach a comprehensive and sustainable political solution that ends the Yemeni crisis.”
“The initiative also aims to urge parties to the conflict to support the process of exchanging prisoners and detainees as well as putting an end to this issue.”An initial batch of 48 individuals have been flown out to Sanaa and Aden in Yemen accompanied by two ICRC staff, the humanitarian organization said.
Another chartered plane has also left Abha for Sanaa with 48 former detainees on board. A third ICRC flight, meanwhile, has departed for Aden carrying eight former detainees. A three-day operation overseen by the ICRC last week returned nearly 900 prisoners, which was seen as a significant boost to efforts to promote a longer truce between the warring factions and eventually peace in the conflict-ridden country. The prisoner exchange was widely welcomed, particularly by the Arab world, amid hopes for regional stability and security.

Ukraine Foreign Minister Seeks Support on Visit to Iraq
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 April, 2023
Ukraine's foreign minister visited Iraq on Monday for the first time since Russia's invasion, seeking diplomatic support from the Middle East where Moscow has been cultivating friends. "We definitely see Iraq as a country that is capable of building bridges," Dmytro Kuleba said at a press conference alongside Iraq's Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein. "We welcome every effort to restore peace in Ukraine. There is one key cornerstone that must be laid down at the very foundation of every effort: and that cornerstone is the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity." Hussein called for a ceasefire in Ukraine, saying this was the same message given to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who visited Iraq in February. "We always strive to be a part of the solution. Wars end with negotiation and dialogue; that’s why we believe in the language of dialogue," Hussein said. "That’s why when we negotiate or discuss with officials in Moscow, and Minister Lavrov was here in the same hall, we mentioned the same principles, and we told them that we support a ceasefire and the start of negotiations." There are no peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine war. Moscow says Kyiv must first accept its annexation of Ukrainian territory; Ukraine says Russia must pull out its troops.

Biden lags recent Democratic presidents in declaring re-election campaign
LBCI/Monday, 17 April, 2023
US President Joe Biden is running again, he and White House officials insist, he's just not ready to announce it yet. The expected date for Biden, 80, to make his 2024 presidential plans official has slipped from just after the State of the Union address in February to March, to potentially May or even later, according to aides and advisers. Biden trails recent Democratic incumbent presidents on the issue: Barack Obama announced he would run for a second term in 2012 on April 4, 2011, and Bill Clinton's 1996 re-election announcement was April 14, 1995. Jimmy Carter, however, waited until Dec. 4, 1979, to announce his 1980 re-election run. Republican Donald Trump said on June 18, 2019, that he would run for a second term in 2020, while George W. Bush made his 2004 plans public on May 16, 2003. The lack of a formal announcement has given jitters to supporters unsure if the Democrat president, one of the oldest world leaders, would or should commit to another four-year term. He would be 86 at the end of a prospective second term. Several factors have been in play, allies said, including picking a campaign team and locking down fundraising plans for financing what may be the most expensive campaign in history. In recent weeks, Biden has laid out the likely themes of a re-election bid in political speeches, secured a doctor's note that he is "fit for duty," told Democrats to re-order the party's primary calendar in a manner favoring his nomination and picked Chicago as the city where he would ostensibly formally become the nominee next year. Biden is yet to face a serious challenge for his party's nomination. "We'll announce it relatively soon. But the trip here just reinforced my sense of optimism about what can be done," Biden told reporters at the tail-end of an emotional trip to Ireland last week. "I told you my plan is to run again." Biden started the month by kicking off a multi-week, nearly 30-state "Investing in America" tour where the president and top administration officials highlighted infrastructure, chips and inflation act money that is starting to flow into states. It is part of broader push to send Biden administration officials from coast-to-coast talking about the over $1 trillion in federal money Biden and Democrats put through Congress to fund roads, bridges and high-tech jobs.This week, Biden plans remarks on childcare and environmental justice, along with a visit to a labor union training facility in Maryland to talk about the economy.
While not technically campaign events, they offer a platform for the president to promote likely campaign themes on the need to lower childcare costs, seek racial justice and build an economy that benefits the working class. Once Biden is officially running for president, his campaign will be asked daily for responses on hot-button issues as well as the latest salvos and foreign policy observations from top Republican candidate Donald Trump, and to respond to Trump's long list of legal woes. Until then, the Biden White House seems ready to stick with a policy of near-silence on Trump.
Biden has still not decided who will run his campaign, and as of last month was considering at least three people to serve as his campaign manager. Donors who financed his last campaign are standing by, planning a series of events featuring Biden that will take place right around the time he announces, raising millions of dollars to give his campaign a strong start, according to people familiar with the plans. A formal announcement and filing with the Federal Election Commission would officially open the doors to donations to Biden's campaign committee, but also put new ethics and spending scrutiny on Biden's activities as president. Incumbent presidents need to reimburse the US government for travel and other expenses related to their campaign.

Explainer: Why have some EU countries banned Ukraine grain imports?
LBCI/Reuters/April 17/2023
Poland, Hungary and Slovakia have announced bans on grain and other food imports from Ukraine to protect their local agricultural sectors.
Ukraine held talks with Poland on Monday to seek an end the bans.
WHY IS UKRAINE EXPORTING THROUGH EASTERN EUROPE?
Ukraine exported agricultural products predominately through its ports in the Black Sea until they were closed after Russia's invasion began in February year because of a threat Russia could use the ports to land troops. Three of the Ukraine's ports were subsequently re-opened under a United Nations-backed pact reached in July last year to create a safe corridor for exports to help tackle the global food crisis. Other ports, including one of the most important Mykolaiv, remain closed. Ukraine, one of the world's largest exporters of grains and oilseeds, has had to turn to land routes and expand trade through small Danube river ports. The easiest land route, north through Russian-ally Belarus, has been effectively shut off, forcing Ukraine to move as much grain as possible through eastern Europe. The European Union, to facilitate this option, announced a one-year suspension on import tariffs for Ukraine, in June 2022. The latest bans have cast doubt on initial expectations the suspension would be extended for another year.
WHAT HAS BEEN EXPORTED?
Since the conflict began around 17 million tonnes of major agricultural products have left Ukraine by truck and trains, most of its via the border with Poland, data issued by Ukraine's farm ministry shows. The volume includes 8 million tonnes of corn, 2.2 million tonnes of wheat, 1.47 million tonnes of rapeseed, 1.44 million tonnes of sunoil, 1.31 million tonnes of sunseed, 1.22 million tonnes of meals and 950,000 tonnes of soybeans. This compared to 40.6 million tonnes which left Ukraine from sea ports.
WHY ARE HUNGARY, POLAND AND SLOVAKIA BLOCKING EXPORTS?
Farmers in the eastern European countries have complained the influx of Ukrainian products has lowered prices and reduced their sales. The Prime Ministers of five eastern EU countries - Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia - wrote to European Commission President European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last month saying the increase in shipments had been unprecedented and tariffs may need to be re-introduced unless the influx could be stopped by other means. The issue has created a political problem for Poland's ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party in an election year as it has angered people in rural areas where support for the PiS is usually high. The resignation of Poland's Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk earlier this month was linked to the crisis.
HOW IS THE EU RESPONDING?
In response to individual country bans, the European Union's executive has said such unilateral action is unacceptable. The European Commission said it has requested information from Hungary and Poland on their import bans and is considering a second package of farmer compensation after an initial 56 million euros agreed in March. It could also launch an "infringement procedure" that would culminate in a ruling by the European Court of Justice. The process would, however, likely take more than a year.
IS THERE A THREAT UKRAINE MAY BE UNABLE TO EXPORT?
The export and transit bans come as a war-time deal to export millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea nears its mid-May expiry with the prospects of an extension uncertain. The collapse of that deal coupled with the bans would strand millions of tonnes of grain inside Ukraine, which makes a substantial part of its gross domestic product from food sales. In the coming years it could lead to a large reduction in the planting area and harvest as well as the closure of farms and processing plants.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 17-18/2023
U.S. Deploys Cruise Missile Submarine to Strengthen Deterrence Against Iran
Farzin Nadimi/The Washington Institute/April 17/2023
Amid rising tensions with Tehran and its regional proxies, the United States is sending a message by openly deploying one of its few guided missile submarines to the region.
Typically, U.S. submarine deployments are not announced in advance, especially when the vessels are entering a potentially hot zone of operation that may require them to rely on stealth, their main operational advantage. Yet conventionally armed guided missile submarines are an exception—their presence is occasionally made known as a show of deterrence. This seemed to be the main purpose when U.S. Naval Forces Central Command announced on April 8 that the USS Florida (SSGN-728) had been deployed to the Middle East “to help ensure regional maritime security and stability.” The Florida is one of only four guided missile/special forces submarines in U.S. Navy service—vessels that are usually tasked with top-priority clandestine missions.
Increased U.S.-Iran-Israel Clashes
On March 23, a U.S.-manned forward base near Hasaka, Syria, was attacked by an explosive drone launched by Iraqi Shia militias affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Among other casualties, an American contractor was killed in the attack—an outcome that crossed Washington’s red lines and triggered multiple U.S. airstrikes inside Syria. Yet those strikes were only partially successful in deterring Iran and its proxies—a salvo of rockets was soon fired at another U.S. compound in Syria, raising concerns about further escalation.
These clashes coincided with a series of Israeli standoff precision airstrikes against IRGC and Hezbollah targets in Syria beginning on March 30. The resultant deaths of two IRGC officers and other operatives prompted Tehran to issue promises of revenge. On April 2, a drone of reportedly Iranian origin tried to penetrate northern Israel from Syria but was shot down. The next day, Israel downed a Hamas Shahab drone as it tried to enter from the Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, rising tensions in the West Bank led to multiple rocket strikes against Israel, some launched by Palestinian factions in south Lebanon and others from Gaza and Syria. In response, Israel conducted bombing raids targeting the launch sites. The risk of escalation is significant given ongoing tensions at the Temple Mount/al-Haram al-Sharif and Iran’s declared “Qods (Jerusalem) Day,” which falls today, the last Friday of Ramadan. In this environment, the United States and its partners can benefit from the USS Florida’s deterrent effect and robust intelligence collection capabilities—and, if necessary, from its additional firepower.
Signaling with Submarines
According to media reports quoting U.S. defense officials, suspicious Iranian drone activities in the Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, and Red Sea spurred the U.S. Navy and United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) to issue warnings of potential shipping attacks on April 5-6. The warnings were especially geared toward Israeli cargo ships and tankers, which were reportedly asked to navigate away from Iranian waters with their transponders turned off. Since February 2021, the IRGC has attacked Israeli-linked commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman or Arabian Sea at least seven times, using suicide drones and/or limpet mines to damage the ships and, in one case, kill crewmembers.
It has been a while since the U.S. Navy acknowledged the deployment of a submarine to the region. On December 21, 2020, the USS Georgia—another SSGN, the designation used for nuclear-powered guided missile submarines—transited the Strait of Hormuz while surfacing alongside two U.S. missile cruisers. That deployment came during another period of high tensions marked by two developments: the imminent first anniversary of the U.S. strike that killed IRGC Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani, and the November assassination of top Iranian nuclear official Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, allegedly by Israel. At the time, the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group was also deployed to the northern Arabian Sea to support troop withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan.
Another high-profile deployment came on October 19, 2022, when U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Michael Kurilla was given a tour of the ballistic missile submarine USS West Virginia in the Arabian Sea. These vessels are considered key tools of strategic deterrence and part of the U.S. nuclear triad, and they do not often patrol in the Middle East. The move was interpreted as a message to Russian president Vladimir Putin (who had recently threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine) and Iran (which had been supplying Moscow with suicide drones for use in Ukraine, and possibly short-range ballistic missiles as well).
How Could an SSGN Be Used Against Iran?
The Navy’s four converted Ohio-class SSGNs are usually tasked with highly secretive intelligence gathering and conventional strike missions. They are armed with up to 154 vertically launched precision-guided TLAM-E Tomahawk cruise missiles (UGM-109E Block IV) with a range of up to 1,600 km and a 454 kg warhead. This version of the Tomahawk is capable of loitering in flight and has a two-way satellite datalink that can receive updated mission data for retargeting, course corrections, and damage assessment. This ability is especially useful for targeting air defense systems and mobile ballistic missile launchers.
The 1,600 km range could enable an SSGN submerged at a safe distance in the Arabian Sea to clandestinely launch cruise missiles at targets deep inside Iran, using any ingress point along its 784 km coastline with the Gulf of Oman and most of its 1,600 km land borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan. This puts all of the regime’s military sites, military industrial facilities, and other targets in the south and east within striking range, as well as some of its main nuclear sites. Although the TLAM-E does not have significant hard-target penetration capabilities, its multi-effect programmable warhead still allows for some degree of “bunker busting,” especially when several missiles hit a single point sequentially.
With a vessel like the USS Florida in theater, Iran’s monitoring capabilities and cruise missile defenses along these vast and remote borders could be stretched quite thin (for a more detailed discussion of the regime’s air defense, including graphics, see PolicyWatch 3626). In January 2021, false reports of penetration by American cruise missiles from several directions reportedly caused confusion within Iran’s military command following its strike against al-Asad Air Base in Iraq—so much so that an IRGC TOR-M1 short-range air defense system shot down a Ukrainian civilian airliner near Tehran.
Converted Ohio-class submarines are also equipped with a thirty-ton dry deck shelter. This gives them the ability to deliver and recover SEAL commando teams on clandestine missions using submersibles or small boats.
These capabilities, coupled with robust intelligence gathering and task force command-level secure communications, give SSGNs carrier-like abilities when a carrier is not available. SSGNs also offer logistical advantages compared to a carrier strike group, such as quicker deployment and concealment of their whereabouts—though as noted above, the Pentagon will sometimes publicize a submarine deployment to achieve the same deterrent effects as a carrier presence.
In the current case, the Florida was apparently forward-deployed to the Middle East because the Russia-focused mission of the George H. W. Bush Carrier Strike Group in the East Mediterranean has been extended. Although the carrier group can still project airpower into Syria from the Mediterranean, cruise missiles launched by the Florida would offer a much better alternative against potential targets in both Iran and eastern/southern Syria, which could be struck from standoff range in the Arabian Sea or Gulf of Oman. Low-flying Tomahawks are difficult to detect and counter, especially if launched from submerged SSGNs.
Interestingly, Tehran is eyeing a stealthy submarine launch capability of its own. Since at least 2019, the Iranian national navy has been developing and testing a canister-based system for launching Nasr antiship missiles from submarine torpedo tubes; these missiles now have a reported range of around 100 km. Iranian submarines still lack slant or vertical launch systems for long-range cruise missiles, but the regime is likely working on this capability.
Conclusion
Despite making overtures to American partners in the Gulf, Iran is still committed to pushing the United States out of the region and posing a clear and present danger to its forces in Syria and elsewhere. It has also been developing “anti-carrier” capabilities in the form of antiship homing ballistic missiles with a claimed range of up to 2,000 km.
In this environment, the U.S. Navy’s flexible and stealthy guided missile submarines are an excellent alternative to carrier deployments when needed, providing a way to enhance deterrence against Tehran and its proxies by maintaining a persistent clandestine presence—and delivering occasional public reminders of U.S. firepower. Notably, all four SSGNs are slated for retirement between 2026 and 2028, with no replacement in sight. Until then, however, the prospect of 154 Tomahawks causing massive damage inside Iran could send a powerful message, since the regime is obviously much more sensitive to potential strikes on its home territory versus far away in Syria.
*Farzin Nadimi is an associate fellow with The Washington Institute, specializing in security and defense in Iran and the Gulf region.

Europe Must Support the Revolution in Iran
Saeed Ghasseminejad/ The Algemeiner/April 17/2023
In March, in response to “continued obstruction” from Tehran, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France shut down INSTEX, a payment mechanism to facilitate trade with Iran and keep the 2015 nuclear deal alive. One might expect that after this step, the European Union would finally put the agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in the grave and go on offense.
But Josep Borrell, the formal head of the EU’s foreign policy, still claims that a return to the JCPOA is the best option for Europe, and argues against designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist entity. Borrel is wrong, but represents a dominant opinion among European decision-makers, who still back a policy that doesn’t deter the Islamic Republic’s nuclear or regional ambitions. This approach needs to change.
A real alternative to the failed appeasement policy, which Europe has been experimenting with since France and Germany began diplomatic engagement with Tehran in the early 1990s, is to back the revolutionary movement in Iran. Since December 2017, the Islamic Republic has seen three waves of widespread protests, with smaller waves happening in between. During these years, the protests have become more widespread, more frequent, more organized, and more forceful. The largest and most resilient eruption followed the regime’s murder of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in September 2022, for allegedly wearing her headscarf improperly. These are all signs of an revolutionary movement in Iran.
The fuel for the rebellion is the structural shortcomings of the Islamic Republic and its incapacity to reform itself. The Islamic Republic treats women as legally inferior to men, and uses violence to enforce Sharia law. It has created four decades of two-digit inflation, slow growth, a real GDP per capita still lower than it was in 1977, and significant unemployment, especially for the youth.
The future of Iran-EU economic relations is also dark. EU-Iran trade is not significant, around 5 billion euros, and Tehran is backing Moscow in its war against Ukraine by sending Russia weapons and trainers. Furthermore, the nuclear saga, especially the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, has taught European companies that Iran is not a safe haven for their investment. Tehran too has learned that it cannot rely on European companies as a shield against US sanctions.
Despite having significant oil and gas reserves, Iran has not become a reliable source of energy for Europe, due to its aggressive foreign policy. The regime’s regional aggression threatens the safe transfer of energy resources from the Persian Gulf to Europe. And Tehran has shown its willingness to target energy facilities in the region. In 2021, European Union had 113 billion euros in trade with Persian Gulf countries. But Tehran’s aggression has increased the risk of trade and investment in the region for Europe. Despite the Islamic Republic’s recent rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, its track record strongly suggests that the risk will remain.
Tehran’s adventures are also not limited to the Middle East. Iranian-made drones are targeting Ukrainian cities, and the transfer of Iranian missiles to Russia is a serious possibility. The Islamic Republic’s missile program, which can now deploy projectiles capable of reaching European cities, is now a serious issue for Europe. The dynamic of the EU-Iran relationship could quickly change in favor of cooperation if the regime in Tehran falls. In fact, the EU could facilitate the Islamic Republic’s collapse by pursuing a campaign of maximum pressure on the regime and maximum support for the Iranian people.
On the pressure side, the EU should trigger the JCPOA’s snapback process to reimpose international sanctions; expand its sanctions to target key conglomerates and industries; crack down on Tehran’s use of the European financial system; ban regime officials and their families from entering the EU zone; designate the IRGC as a terrorist entity; and close down the network of cultural and Islamic centers that Tehran has created in Europe to expand its influence.
On the support side, the EU should help Iranians by creating a strike and protests fund to support demonstrators and laborers who want to go on strike. The EU should also support efforts to connect Iranians to non-censored internet by creating a free internet fund.
The continuation of the EU’s current Iran policy will lead to a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic. Maximum pressure on the regime and maximum support for the Iranian people is a plausible alternative. Europeans have everything to gain by trying.
*Dr. Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), specializing in Iran’s economy and financial markets, sanctions, and illicit finance. Follow him on Twitter @SGhasseminejad. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, non-partisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Is Daesh facing defeat, or starting a deadly new phase?
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/April 17/2023
After repeated misleading boasts since 2017 that Daesh had been eradicated in Iraq and Syria, there are indications that this happy scenario may finally be coming to pass.
Daesh activity in these two countries has been relentlessly falling, confined to an ever-narrowing list of localities. According to Daesh’s own claims, numbers of victims from most attacks in its heartlands are vanishingly small. Around 2021, Daesh in Iraq was averaging 50 attacks a month. Now, in a state of apparently terminal decline, the branch considers itself lucky if it scrapes together a dozen low-level attacks each month.
During past Ramadans, Daesh has escalated its activity. Its failure to stage a major terrorism campaign in Ramadan 2023 highlights its current crippled capabilities, despite jihadists celebrating it as a “month of conquests.”
Two of Daesh’s leaders were killed last year, and good luck finding any militant who could tell you anything about its current secrecy-shrouded leader — Abu Hussein Al-Husseini Al-Qurashi — if he exists at all. Operations in recent weeks have culled a further crop of Daesh leadership figures. Iraqi authorities claim that Daesh now has only about 400 fighters across four Iraqi provinces, with its geographic isolation making recruitment increasingly impossible.
Rival jihadists note the absence of veteran Daesh personnel remaining alive to make strategic decisions, manage worldwide operations, or confer legitimacy on leadership choices. Jihadists stress the impact of the apparent February killing of a top commander, Abu Sarah Al-Iraqi, on Daesh’s most recent disarray.
Influential militant media such as Sawt Al-Zarqawi have been rebuking disciples on the Telegram platform for “abandoning their posts” and failing to produce and disseminate propaganda. Daesh statements voice frustration at the reluctance of European Muslims to blow themselves up, or plow cars into crowds of passers-by, for the group’s perverted version of the greater good.
However, Daesh’s implosion in Iraq and Syria has counterpointed a cataclysmic transformation of the group’s fortunes throughout sub-Saharan Africa. In 2018, 80 percent of its activity was in Iraq and Syria; today over half the group’s attacks are in Africa.
Across West Africa, Daesh and its Al-Qaeda rivals have carved out vast areas of control throughout Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Reports signal that the major north-eastern Malian conurbation of Menaka is now fully encircled by Daesh fighters. Jihadists are the de facto power throughout around 40 percent of Burkina Faso. Propaganda videos show their ability to mobilize hundreds of well-armed fighters, who can swarm across vast areas of lightly populated territories on motorcycles and armored vehicles.
Chronic weaknesses in security and governance across the Sahel region mean that the main check on jihadist expansion is rivalry with each other, with both Daesh and Al-Qaeda killing of hundreds of each other’s fighters.
Tribal leaderships have little choice but to pay taxes, do deals, and allow their youth to be recruited by militants after regular military forces and local self-defense militias have melted away, particularly given the strategic vacuum left by the departure of French and regional forces. The Russian Wagner mercenary group’s attempts to muscle in have made a bad situation worse, with indiscriminate massacres further driving citizens into the arms of jihadists. Much of Somalia lies under jihadist control.
Jihadists don’t believe they are facing defeat; they assert that they are biding their time ahead of future victories.
In the Lake Chad region, Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province forces had been busy fighting each other in recent months, but since March the latter has once again been escalating assaults against the military, and attacking in new areas such as Jigawa state. In other parts of Nigeria, bandits and militant groups — some with links to jihadists – have boasted about lucrative deals with Chinese companies for allowing them to prospect for minerals and do business. Kidnapping of foreigners and wealthy individuals is an easy means for militant groups to reap millions in ransom money. Islamic State West Africa Province is mostly financially independent from Daesh’s central organization, reaping an estimated $36 million a year from its control of fishing and agricultural production.
Daesh’s branches in the Congo and Mozambique continue killing hundreds of local people. Daesh propaganda is littered with grizzly beheadings, mutilations, and gratuitous mass-slaughter.
Why are Daesh and Al-Qaeda fighting each other? Obviously, the principal reason dates back to bitter splits within these jihadist movements in Syria around 2012. However, a vicious ideological war continues to be fought. For example, in Afghanistan, the Taliban and its Al-Qaeda allies denounce Daesh as brutal “Khawarij” extremists, while Daesh propaganda denounces the Taliban as deviant sell-outs who collaborate with the West to crackdown against Daesh militants. With Al-Qaeda still publicly failing to name a leader after last year’s killing of Ayman Al-Zawahiri, both these global jihadist organizations lack clear leadership, but show scant prospects of mending fences with each other any time soon.
Terrorists are like weeds. If I don’t tend my garden constantly and conscientiously, soon everywhere will be infested with vigorous growth of unwanted plants that rapidly spread into my neighbors’ gardens too. In Iraq, Nigeria, Yemen and Egypt, terrorist groups know that all they have to do is survive and subsist until an inevitable political crisis erupts, allowing them to surge out and re-establish themselves as the dominant force throughout all under-governed spaces.
Malicious entities such as Bashar Assad, Iran’s ayatollahs and Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi in Iraq have exploited jihadists for their own ends as a bogeyman to terrorize their enemies — meaning Daesh may not be allowed to disappear altogether.
So instead of celebrating Daesh’s woes, the world should be adjusting counter-terrorism strategies to confront a grinding new phase of the conflict; slowing down relentless jihadist expansion across Africa and Central Asia, working to stabilize post-conflict states such as Libya, Yemen and Syria, preventing state sponsors of terrorism from bankrolling paramilitaries and jihadists, and ensuring that frustrated young people aren’t seduced by Daesh’s ideology of death. The Western world is meanwhile menaced by far-right extremism.
Daesh in Iraq was fought to a state of virtual defeat around 2010, yet I hardly need recount the manner in which the group surged back to dominance three years later, as a result of political incompetence and Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki’s fueling of sectarian hatred in Iraq, along with the conflict in Syria.
Jihadists don’t believe they are facing defeat; they assert that they are biding their time ahead of future victories. Short-sighted policies and intelligence failures must not give them the opportunity to prove themselves right.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

US forces facing unprecedented challenges in Syria
Ghassan Ibrahim/Arab News/April 17/2023
Militias in northeastern Syria have declared their readiness to confront the US military there. Saraya Al-Khorasani, a terrorist militia, has announced a campaign against the “American occupation” in areas where it is also present in northeastern Syria.
Saraya Al-Khorasani has opened the door to volunteers and attracted hundreds of young men from the region into their ranks by luring them with money and taking advantage of the poverty and deprivation experienced by most Syrians. This militia group specializes in drones, having used them in Iraq to attack US bases and the Green Zone in central Baghdad, demonstrating the extent of its combat experience and its potential to threaten US forces in Syria.
The number of contracted Saraya Al-Khorasani fighters in Syria is estimated to be about 3,500. It works extensively with pro-Iranian militias, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, making its call for escalation against US forces even more severe and dangerous.
Local Syrian activists have confirmed that the Iraqi-led Saraya Al-Khorasani militia, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has set up several new headquarters at Al-Hasakah security square in northeastern Syria.
Before this militia’s calls to resist the American presence, there were several military confrontations between Iranian militias and US forces. Pro-Iranian militants recently attacked US military bases in Syria using drones. The Pentagon has confirmed that US intelligence considers the drones to be of “Iranian origin.”
Since US President Joe Biden took office in 2021, Iranian-linked armed groups have carried out 83 missile and drone attacks against US forces in the region. The US military has responded several times, launching several airstrikes in Syria against Iran-allied groups.
Following one of the American counterattacks, the militias pledged: “The resistance groups reserve the right to respond to the American attack and will respond in kind.” The Iranian Foreign Ministry also condemned the US attacks, accusing American forces of targeting “civilian sites.”
It seems evident that attacks by extremist militias on American bases will not stop and perhaps the American response will be limited to self-defense and nothing else. Statements made by Biden, who warned Iran that the US would take decisive steps to protect Americans, seem to confirm this approach.
However, the challenges facing US forces are not limited to the Iranian side. Turkiye and its militias express dissatisfaction with US forces for other reasons, such as their military support for the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces.
There is no indication that a change in how the US deals with the Syrian crisis is on the horizon.
In addition to Iran and Turkiye, opposition-affiliated Syrians are dissatisfied with the failure of US forces and the Washington administration to play a fundamental mediating role that could lead to a political solution in Syria.
In this environment, which for many reasons is hostile to the American role, will the administration of President Biden wake up and activate its political function and build its forces in Syria? Or will it continue to act in the same way until it reaches a stage of despair and finally withdraws, as happened in Iraq and Afghanistan?
The calls made by the Saraya Al-Khorasani militia, despite its relatively small size, cannot be ignored. It is an indicator that conveys powerful messages of hostile rhetoric that spreads extremism and uses it against US forces.
Currently, the US Army only has about 900 soldiers in Syria, mainly in the east of the country, alongside US contractors, who number no more than 1,000. The US military presence in Syria was aimed at preventing the emergence of extremist factions, whether from Daesh or the Iranian militias, but what is happening is that these militias have begun to expand and even threaten the US military without a necessary response.
These unfavorable indicators are no secret to the US military and the White House, nor do they surprise them. The US approach to the Syrian crisis remains unchanged, even though the results are not fruitful. There is no indication that a change in how the US deals with the Syrian crisis is on the horizon.
Will the extremist militias push for the withdrawal of the US military from Syria or will their hostile approach force the US to increase its military presence on the ground?
If US forces fail to achieve stability and peace in Syria through a political solution consistent with UN resolutions, while confronting and eliminating extremist groups, their presence in Syria could become a magnet for extremist militias hostile to the US. In such circumstances, the presence of US forces may be counterproductive.
Will the outcome of the US mission in Syria be more positive than those in Iraq or Afghanistan? Given the current situation, this is not very likely.
*Ghassan Ibrahim is a British-Syrian journalist and researcher on Middle East issues, most notably Turkiye, Syria and Iran. He can be reached at www.ghassanibrahim.com.

US decline in the Middle East and China’s new soft power
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/April 17/2023
Following William Burns’ visit to Saudi Arabia this month, one has to wonder if the US is aware of the state of Middle Eastern affairs beyond its own lens. During his visit, the CIA director reportedly told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the US felt “blindsided” by Riyadh’s rapprochement with Iran and Syria — Washington’s regional rivals. These remarks can be interpreted as quite ironic, given Burns’ role in the Obama administration and its shaping of the new US policy toward Iran, correcting the neoconservative policies that led to Washington making mistakes in Iraq (since 2003) and Afghanistan (2001-2021).
In 2009, Burns explained that, in recognizing that Iran is a significant regional player, “our basic goal should be to seek a long-term basis for coexisting with Iranian influence while limiting Iranian excesses; to change Iran’s behavior but not its regime.” This policy approach advocated by Burns 14 years ago is very close to the Saudi approach to Iran in 2023. The only difference is that the US was genuinely naive about its ability to change Iranian behavior through a policy of engagement without any external constraints. Today, the Saudi approach toward Iran assumes that China’s influence on Iran’s decision-making process is strong enough to open the ground for a policy of engagement. Nevertheless, the Saudi approach is not solely based on the hope that engagement will be sufficient to alter Iran’s nuclear, military and regional policies.
Successive Democratic and Republican administrations have dented US credibility in the Middle East because of their frequent chopping and changing of policies toward Iran. The economic cost of the Ukrainian war, failure to resolve the Palestinian issue, support for the so-called Arab Spring and domestic polarization have further dented US credibility among regional countries. In comparison, one has to consider the Chinese investments in different countries that have paved the way for Beijing to shift from soft power to geoeconomics and geopolitics.
China’s rise in the Middle East has to be understood through the lens of Beijing’s economic partnerships with all regional countries. This economic approach is very different from the US policy of projecting military power against weak regional adversaries, such as the Taliban in 2001 and the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003. As Robert F. Kennedy Jr. explained on Twitter: “China has displaced the American Empire by deftly projecting, instead, economic power. Over the past decade, our country has spent trillions bombing roads, ports, bridges, and airports. China spent the equivalent building the same across the developing world.”
The US was genuinely naive about its ability to change Iranian behavior through a policy of engagement without any external constraints
Moreover, since the Obama era (2009-2017), the reactive dimension of US policy in the Middle East has provoked confusion among Washington’s regional partners. The lack of US support for its regional allies during the so-called Arab Spring and the idea of rapprochement with Tehran at a time of social turmoil in the region pushed the majority of its Gulf allies to seek a new foreign policy based on autonomy and diversification. Both the neoconservative failure to change the region through wars and the Democratic approach of promoting US influence while not prioritizing its allies and partners in the region have been factors accelerating its regional decline.
Moreover, Barack Obama’s regional policy based on a critical view of Gulf states, as well as the regional wars under the neocon-backed George W. Bush administration, led to a US credibility gap in the Middle East. Beyond the warmongering and a sense of American moral superiority, one has to consider the devastating impact of US internal debates on the country’s prestige worldwide, especially in the Middle East.
Since the Obama policy review on Iran, there has not been any consensus between Washington and its regional allies on Iranian issues. Thus, in the region, there is now a fear that the Democrats’ regional policy will be determined by their desire to do the opposite of what Donald Trump did. In this US domestic context, the positive atmosphere of Saudi-US relations under the Trump administration turned colder and more tense at the beginning of the Biden administration.
This partisanship reinforces the regional perception that America’s Middle East policy reflects domestic polarization more than any real desire to address regional issues and concerns. This US-centric approach is no longer acceptable for the region’s countries. On the contrary, given past US mistakes in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Biden administration should seek advice and insights from its regional partners to improve US influence and regain some of the prestige lost since the neoconservative wars.
It therefore seems more essential than ever for Iranian hawks and Democratic doves to emerge from their sterile internal debates to devise a new regional policy that is in line with the region’s sociocultural transformation. It should favor political stability and an economic win-win approach, rather than the short-term internal interests of political factions in Washington. If not, China’s rise will continue in terms of both geopolitics and soft power.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

Biden Is Emboldening China to Invade Taiwan
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute./April 17, 2023
Given the right American policies, China's regime can be deterred.
For decades, the United States has tried to manage the situation across the Taiwan Strait by not angering Beijing. White House and administration officials, both anonymously and on the record, contradicted the president [that the U.S. would send troops if there was an attack] on all four occasions. The Chinese certainly do not see firmness in the Biden administration but disarray.
This disarray has almost certainly emboldened Beijing to act even more aggressively. So, what must Biden do at this late date to reestablish deterrence?
Washington should offer to recognize Taipei as the legitimate government of "Taiwan" if it wants America to do so, offer a mutual defense treaty to Taipei, on an emergency basis begin moving weapons and supplies to the island, and base troops there as a tripwire. Many will say these steps—similar ones on the Korean peninsula have worked—are risky.
Three decades of misguided Taiwan and China policies have left Washington with no risk-free options.... [T]he most risky and dangerous option is to continue with policies that created this situation in the first place. Beijing's long delay in reporting Ladakh [India] casualties suggests the Communist Party would be hesitant to fight to take Taiwan. China, in short, can be deterred by the prospect of massive casualties—or maybe even just a few of them. Ultimately, the Biden administration, to establish deterrence, must possess the forces in the field to inflict casualties on China. "[T]he United States has no choice but to initiate a crash program to rebuild a regional/tactical nuclear deterrent, from nuclear artillery shells to short-, medium-, and intermediate-range nuclear-tipped missiles," Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center told Gatestone. In the Cold War in Europe, America deterred a militarily superior Soviet Union with its announced willingness to use nuclear weapons, and Ronald Reagan's deployment of the nuclear-tipped Pershing II missile held back an aggressive Moscow. Biden, however, has made it clear that he abhors nukes. Biden, therefore, better come up with a plan quick.
The Eastern Theater Command of China's People's Liberation Army just declared it is now "ready to fight." Biden, on the other hand, does not appear ready to reestablish deterrence in an era of Chinese aggression and belligerence.
Three decades of misguided Taiwan and China policies have left Washington with no risk-free options. The most risky and dangerous option is to continue with policies that created this situation in the first place. (Image source: iStock)
China just substantially reduced a three-day no-fly zone it had declared northeast of Taiwan. The zone, originally scheduled to run from the 16th to the 18th of this month, was scaled back to just 27 minutes on the 16th. China's Maritime Safety Administration said the closure was due to "aerospace activities." Apparently, the initial stage of a Chinese space launch vehicle will be falling back to earth at that time. Taiwan said it had objected to the duration of the Chinese zone as initially announced. Others, including aviation authorities, complained to Beijing as well.
The substantial reduction in duration shows that China, despite protestations to the contrary, reacts to pressure. Can the international community pressure China into abandoning its push to absorb the Republic of China, as the island is formally known? Beijing says it is unmovable on Taiwan. As China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared last August, "There is but one China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory, and the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China."
Beijing is certainly movable, and, contrary to assertions, its foreign policy is not "principled." Throughout the history of the People's Republic, the country's external policies have been tightly bound to internal political intrigue and have changed accordingly. At the moment, President Xi Jinping's favored form of diplomacy is intimidation, so he tries to make it appear that he will never change his positions.
He can change, even on Taiwan. Given the right American policies, China's regime can be deterred. Does Washington now have the right policies? For decades, the United States has tried to manage the situation across the Taiwan Strait by not angering Beijing. Washington has maintained a policy of "strategic ambiguity," in other words, not telling either China or Taiwan what America would do in the case of imminent conflict.Strategic ambiguity was developed in part to prevent Taiwan from invading China, but after the democratization of the island that has not been a concern. Despite the change in circumstances, Washington has kept the policy in place. Defenders point out that strategic ambiguity has in fact kept the peace across the Taiwan Strait, but the policy has worked in a generally benign period. Unfortunately, Xi Jinping's almost constant threats make it clear that the current era is anything but benign.
Now, many call for "strategic clarity," telling Chinese leaders in no uncertain terms that the United States will defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack.
President Joe Biden on four occasions ditched ambiguity and clearly stated the United States would fight. On "60 Minutes" last September, for instance, Biden responded to a question from Scott Pelley by declaring the United States would send troops to defend Taiwan "if in fact there was an unprecedented attack."The administration, unfortunately, immediately walked back the president's clear statement. "After the interview, a White House official said U.S. policy on Taiwan has not changed," CBS News reported. Biden's unambiguous words were in fact a stark change from America's decades-old policy of strategic ambiguity. White House and administration officials, both anonymously and on the record, contradicted the president on all four occasions. The Chinese certainly do not see firmness in the Biden administration but disarray. This disarray has almost certainly emboldened Beijing to act even more aggressively. So, what must Biden do at this late date to reestablish deterrence?
Washington should offer to recognize Taipei as the legitimate government of "Taiwan" if it wants America to do so, offer a mutual defense treaty to Taipei, on an emergency basis begin moving weapons and supplies to the island, and base troops there as a tripwire. Many will say these steps—similar ones on the Korean peninsula have worked—are risky. Yes, they are, but Biden has allowed the situation to deteriorate across the Taiwan Strait, so he has to consider policies once considered extreme. In any event, saying something is risky is not a meaningful objection these days. Three decades of misguided Taiwan and China policies have left Washington with no risk-free options. Everything is risky, everything is dangerous, and the most risky and dangerous option is to continue with policies that created this situation in the first place.
What would China do in response to these recommended steps? Beijing always says, "Taiwan independence means war."That statement, in substance, is silly. The Republic of China is already an independent state according to the standards established in the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States. Beijing is really saying that any declaration by Taipei formally abandoning claims to China is "independence" as that would be tantamount to declaring there are two separate states, one "China" and the other "Taiwan." Would the Chinese actually go to war over such a declaration? Beijing claims that its "casualty-tolerance" is "China's decisive advantage in any fight with the U.S."
Not so. On the night of June 15, 2020, the People's Liberation Army launched a surprise attack on Indian forces in Ladakh, south of the Line of Actual Control in the Himalayas. India immediately announced that 20 of its soldiers had been killed, but Beijing said nothing about casualties until February 19 of the following year, when it reported four troopers had died. Indian sources believe about 45 Chinese had in fact been killed, and TASS, the Russian news agency, issued a release agreeing with India's assessment of the Chinese death toll.
Beijing's long delay in reporting Ladakh casualties suggests the Communist Party would be hesitant to fight to take Taiwan. China, in short, can be deterred by the prospect of massive casualties—or maybe even just a few of them.
Ultimately, the Biden administration, to establish deterrence, must possess the forces in the field to inflict casualties on China. "The U.S. failed to keep pace with China's burgeoning conventional threat to Taiwan, so the United States has no choice but to initiate a crash program to rebuild a regional/tactical nuclear deterrent, from nuclear artillery shells to short-, medium-, and intermediate-range nuclear-tipped missiles," Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center told Gatestone.
History can repeat itself. In the Cold War in Europe, America deterred a militarily superior Soviet Union with its announced willingness to use nuclear weapons, and Ronald Reagan's deployment of the nuclear-tipped Pershing II missile held back an aggressive Moscow. Biden, however, has made it clear that he abhors nukes. Biden, therefore, better come up with a plan quick. "Look at the military exercises, and also their rhetoric, they seem to be trying to get ready to launch a war against Taiwan," said Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu to CNN this month. Taiwan evidently thinks there is not much time before China launches an attack. The Eastern Theater Command of China's People's Liberation Army just declared it is now "ready to fight." Biden, on the other hand, does not appear ready to reestablish deterrence in an era of Chinese aggression and belligerence.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
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