English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 12/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
When you were younger, you used to fasten your own belt and to go wherever you wished. But when you grow old, you will stretch out your hands, and someone else will fasten a belt around you and take you where you do not wish to go you and take you where you do not wish to go
John 21/15-19: "When they had finished breakfast, Jesus said to Simon Peter, ‘Simon son of John, do you love me more than these?’ He said to him, ‘Yes, Lord; you know that I love you.’ Jesus said to him, ‘Feed my lambs.’ A second time he said to him, ‘Simon son of John, do you love me?’ He said to him, ‘Yes, Lord; you know that I love you.’ Jesus said to him, ‘Tend my sheep.’ He said to him the third time, ‘Simon son of John, do you love me?’ Peter felt hurt because he said to him the third time, ‘Do you love me?’ And he said to him, ‘Lord, you know everything; you know that I love you.’ Jesus said to him, ‘Feed my sheep. Very truly, I tell you, when you were younger, you used to fasten your own belt and to go wherever you wished. But when you grow old, you will stretch out your hands, and someone else will fasten a belt around you and take you where you do not wish to go.’ (He said this to indicate the kind of death by which he would glorify God.) After this he said to him, ‘Follow me.’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 11-12/2023
Al-Rahi calls for a 'maestro' president
Berri calls for joint House committees meeting tomorrow
Netanyahu: Israel will 'not allow Hamas to establish itself in Lebanon'
Report: Presidential file not a priority for KSA, Iran, 5 nations
The RTA's reopening raises questions about corruption in Lebanon's public sector
Jumblat still clinging to his 'consensual' initiative
Uncertainty surrounds Lebanon's municipal elections
Joint committees to meet Wednesday over municipal polls funding
Mikati discusses preparations for municipal, mayoral elections with Caretaker Interior Minister, meets Apostolic Nuncio, lawmakers
Challenges facing public sector teachers in upcoming municipal elections
UNHCR Projects Help Provide Safe Drinking Water for 15,000 Residents in South Lebanon Villages
UNHCR's solid auditing system: maintaining program integrity and preventing fraud
EDL employees to go on four-day strike
Electricité du Liban: Baalbek-Hermel province may be deprived of power for months
Labor Minister discusses employment, signing agreement between Ethiopia, Lebanon
Al-Halabi discusses educational affairs with PSP delegation
Gasoline price rises, diesel and LPG's decreases
Tehran Shows Openness to 'Permanent Peace' in Yemen, Ending Crisis in Lebanon
Federalism is not the silver bullet many Lebanese Christians think it is/Michael Young/The National/April 11/2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 11-12/2023
GCC initiates meeting to discuss Syria's readmission to the Arab League
Iranian Army Downplays Israeli Strike Threats
Military: Syria rocket attack on US base nets no casualties
Israeli Soldiers Kill Two Palestinian Gunmen in West Bank
Israel’s Netanyahu vows to restore security as violence surges
Thousands of Israeli settlers on the march to illegal outpost
Sixty rescued, two missing after flooding in Israel
Israel Generals Give a Stark Warning: Its Enemies Smell Blood
Israeli Holocaust memorial criticizes deal with Poland
Kremlin says detained U.S. reporter 'violated' Russian law
Polish leader heads to US to further strengthen defense ties
U.N. tally of confirmed civilian deaths in Ukraine approaches 8,500
A former Russian military intelligence officer defected to Ukraine and is setting up his own battalion of dissidents
Hungary’s Top Diplomat Visits Moscow Despite EU Stance
Russian forces in Crimea brace for possible Ukraine assault
Hungary agrees on option for more gas shipments from Russia, oil transit fees -minister
Russia starts fuel supplies to Iran by rail -sources
Taiwan bear badge punches back after China drills
China’s super rich are voting with their assets – and fleeing Xi’s regime
Taiwan needs more than weapons to thwart China’s ambitions
Armenia, Azerbaijan report soldiers killed in border clash
Russian paratroopers are getting thermobaric tank-mounted 'flamethrowers' to make them more deadly after a string of failures, UK intel says
Leaked intelligence document shows that Egypt, a longtime US ally, secretly planned to provide Russia with 40,000 rockets and gunpowder: report
UN Chief Guterres Makes Second Visit to Somalia

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 11-12/2023
Why Palestinians Cannot Resume Peace Talks with Israel/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./April 11, 2023
The Global Order: Movement… Recalibration and Adaptation/Sam Menassa/Asharq Al-Awsat/April, 11/2023
Saudi Arabia’s dangerous policy mix/Haitham El-Zobaidi/The Arab Weekly/April 11/2023
Al-Azhar shows willingness to steer away from rigid positions, avoid clash with government/Ahmed Hafiz/The Arab Weekly/April 11/2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 11-12/2023
Al-Rahi calls for a 'maestro' president
Naharnet/April 11/2023
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi has called for the election of a “maestro” president for the country. “We call for the election of a president who would perform the role of a maestro and who would manage Lebanese diversity and lead it to unity and harmony,” al-Rahi said during a musical performance in Bkirki by the Lebanese Philharmonic Orchestra. Al-Rahi also called on caretaker Culture Minister Mohammed Wissam al-Murtada, who attended the event, to “offer every support to culture in Lebanon.”

Berri calls for joint House committees meeting tomorrow
NNA/April 11/2023
House Speaker Nabih Berri has called the House committees of finance, administration, interior, and economy to meet in a joint session at 11:00 am tomorrow (Wednesday), to discuss an agenda of several items, including a bill to open a LBP 1500 billion credit to finance the upcoming municipal elections.

Netanyahu: Israel will 'not allow Hamas to establish itself in Lebanon'
Agence France Presse/April 11/2023
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel "will not allow the terrorist Hamas to establish itself in Lebanon". Netanyahu vowed at a news conference Monday to restore security "on all fronts" after surging violence that included rocket fire from Lebanon and Syria and two more deaths on Monday.
The day after Israeli police on Wednesday stormed the prayer hall of Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa mosque -- Islam's third-holiest site -- more than 30 rockets were fired from Lebanese soil into Israel. The Israeli army said the attack was most likely carried out by the Palestinian armed movement Hamas. Israel then bombarded the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon, targeting "terror infrastructures" it said belonged to Hamas.

Report: Presidential file not a priority for KSA, Iran, 5 nations
Naharnet/April 11/2023
The Lebanese presidential file is not a priority in the Saudi-Iranian negotiations, political sources said. It is also not a priority in the efforts of the five-nation group on Lebanon – the US, France, KSA, Egypt and Qatar -- despite the Qatari endeavor in this regard, the sources told the PSP’s al-Anbaa news portal.
“Accordingly, the file will be certainly postponed until after the Arab Summit,” which will be held on May 19, the sources added.

The RTA's reopening raises questions about corruption in Lebanon's public sector
LBCI/April 11/2023
Opening the Road Traffic Authority (RTA) in Dekwaneh has brought back memories of bribery, brokerage, and strikes after six months of closure due to judicial arrests and corruption files. The Internal Security Forces (ISF) members opened the RTA and assigned thirty officers and staff to various departments. They inspected the cars and handled the transactions between the buyer and seller, which resulted in registering 206 cars in Dekwaneh alone. On the first day of the reopening of the RTA and especially the vehicle registration and licensing department, the state treasury earned an amount of LBP 1.2 billion. However, the situation is different in reality, and the citizens are still confused. In Dekwaneh, Tripoli, Sidon, and Zahle, some employees came to work after promises to pay their salaries, which resulted in slower transaction processing. Meanwhile, in Nabatieh, the RTA remained closed due to the non-payment of wages. Nevertheless, the RTA doors will be open three days a week, every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Transactions will be limited to the registration of imported vehicles, new or used, with the difference being that cars with zero kilometers do not require inspection. In contrast, used vehicles must undergo an examination. Moreover, citizens must pay attention to the car's identification number, as transactions for cars' numbers ending in 0, 1, 2, or 3 are handled every Tuesday, and those ending in 4, 5, or 6 are conducted on Wednesday. Those ending in 7, 8, or 9 are conducted on Thursday. In addition, citizens must bring their customs certificate, residence certificate, and ID. If they require the "seller-buyer" agreement to be authenticated, they can do so at the RTA in the presence of both parties. Other services will be activated gradually.

Jumblat still clinging to his 'consensual' initiative
Naharnet/April 11/2023
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat is still clinging to his initiative for resolving the presidential crisis, a media report said. Jumblat’s initiative proposes a host of “consensual” presidential candidates one of whom might enjoy consensus among the various parties or most of them, Asharq al-Awsat newspaper reported.
In addition to Joseph Aoun, Jihad Azour and Salah Honein, Jumblat had recently proposed Chebli Mallat and May Rihani. Lebanese Forces sources meanwhile told the daily that Jumblat’s initiative has not run into the rejection of the opposition forces but rather into the refusal of the Shiite Duo, which “has rejected any candidate other than Suleiman Franjieh.”“Accordingly, this Duo has blocked and thwarted Jumblat’s efforts,” the sources added.

Uncertainty surrounds Lebanon's municipal elections
LBCI/April 11/2023
Most officials' statements and eagerness to hold municipal and Mukhtar's elections may give the impression that the elections are inevitable. However, according to the Interior Ministry's calendar, the scheduled dates are between May 7 and 28, over four Sundays. We are less than a month away from the first Sunday, but there are five days of holiday during this period. - Two days off for Easter for the sects that follow the Eastern calendar on Friday and Monday, April 14 and 17, respectively.
- Two days off for Eid al-Fitr on May 21 and 24.
- May 1st for Labor Day.
So, five days off out of 19 working days, excluding Saturdays and Sundays, which leaves only 14 days. Is it enough time to prepare for the elections?
On Wednesday, a joint committee meeting was held to discuss the proposal for the election financing law by opening a credit in the 2022 budget, submitted by MP Ali Hassan Khalil. However, the government is still hesitant regarding accepting some proposals to use part of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) SDR's special drawing rights for this purpose. Most of the political parties' stances show that they are ready to participate in the municipal and Mukhtar's elections, as demonstrated by the recent meeting of the executive bodies of the Amal and Hezbollah parties, which confirmed their readiness and alliance for this purpose. Although the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) has previously announced its readiness for the elections, the phrase in MP Alain Aoun's statement carries some confusion when he said: "the movement supports it if the conditions and requirements are secured."We will likely be in a confusing phase between the government and the parliament in the upcoming days regarding holding the elections or extending the current councils' terms. Moreover, the outcome still needs to be clarified, according to parliamentary sources. The joint committees will likely not agree on financing or postponing the elections. The proposed scenario is to refer the matter to the general authority that will assemble a quorum, and in the absence of objectors to holding legislative sessions under the council being an electoral body. Furthermore, there are attempts to secure the quorum by involving the Strong Lebanon bloc, which requires any legislative session to be limited to urgent, necessary, and expedited matters. As for extension, it may be for six months or a year. According to parliamentary sources, everyone wants it, but no one wants to be responsible for delaying it.

Joint committees to meet Wednesday over municipal polls funding
Naharnet/April 11/2023
Joint parliamentary committees will convene on Wednesday morning to discuss funding the municipal elections. Caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi had urged the government to secure the necessary funds and complete the administrative preparations for the elections that are supposed to start on May 7.
Funding the elections needs a law, while Parliament cannot legislate before a president is elected. The joint committees of finance and budget, administration and justice, national defense, interior and municipalities, national economy, trade, and industry will discuss tomorrow, Wednesday, many draft laws, including the draft law that would open a line of credit worth LBP 1,500 billion to fund the municipal elections for the year 2023. The Lebanese Forces party has accused the Free Patriotic Movement and the Hezbollah-led camp of obstructing the municipal polls. LF MP Nazih Matta urged the Shiite Duo and the Free Patriotic Movement to openly express that they want to postpone the elections, in remarks published Tuesday in the Progressive Socialist Party's al-Anbaa news portal. "We are not scared of the municipal polls' results," FPM MP Alain Aoun said, claiming that his party is not seeking to cancel or postpone the polls. the MP added that the FPM will extend the term of the current municipalities in Parliament, in case the polls were cancelled. The Shiite Duo also said Monday in a joint statement that Amal and Hezbollah are ready for the municipal polls. Sources of the Shiite Duo told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, in remarks published Tuesday, that they have started preparing for the municipal polls in March and that Amal and Hezbollah will run on unified lists.

Mikati discusses preparations for municipal, mayoral elections with Caretaker Interior Minister, meets Apostolic Nuncio, lawmakers
NNA/April 11/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Tuesday met at the Grand with Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, in the presence of Director General of Personal Status at the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities Brigadier General Elias El Khoury. Discussions reportedly touched on preparations for the upcoming municipal and mayoral elections. Caretaker Premier Mikati also received at the Grand Serail the Apostolic Nuncio to Lebanon, Paolo Borgia. Mikati later met with MPs Amin Cherri and Raed Berro, in the presence of the Secretary-General of the Higher Relief Commission, Major General Mohammad Khair.

Challenges facing public sector teachers in upcoming municipal elections
LBCI/April 11/2023
Mahdi Karaki is one of 28,000 public sector teachers the Interior Ministry and Municipalities need as heads of polling stations and clerks in 14,000 ballot boxes for the upcoming municipal and Mukhtar's elections. However, no polling station can be opened without teachers, and the electoral process can only be conducted as scheduled in May. The teachers’ union have not been discussed, nor has a final decision been made regarding participation in managing these elections and on what basis. However, for most of the educational sector, there will undoubtedly be no participation without promises of minimal allowances and a clear deadline. The proposed applications offer a financial reward of $125 for the head of the station and the clerk, which is better than what was previously provided in the parliamentary elections. Nevertheless, what guarantees the payment of these allowances in time and before losing their value due to exchange rate instability and ongoing financial collapse, as previously happened in the parliamentary elections? The head of the station was paid LBP 3.6 million, and the clerk was paid LBP 3.4 million six months after losing its value due to an exchange rate hike.
Regardless of the teachers' stances, it is early to discuss elections as long as the decision to hold it has not been clearly defined and as long as the required funds to make them possible are unavailable. In contrast, the decision has not been made regarding where they will be allocated or secured.

UNHCR Projects Help Provide Safe Drinking Water for 15,000 Residents in South Lebanon Villages
NNA/April 11/2023
UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency and its partners INTERSOS and SHEILD today inaugurated two projects benefiting more than 15,000 residents of Douair and Nmairiyeh villages in the Nabatieh governorate, South Lebanon. Through these projects, two solar-powered supply systems now operate the pumps in the water wells that provide the inhabitants of both villages and adjacent areas with sustainable safe drinking water. The ceremonies were attended by Mr. Ali Zbib, Mayor of Nmairiyeh, Mr. Mohamed Kanso, Mayor of Douair, and Mr. Francis Teoh, UNHCR Head of Office in Tyre. “These two projects, like many others that UNHCR has implemented in the south and across Lebanon, provide essential and safe drinking water to people living in the areas. More than 13,000 Lebanese and 2,000 refugees are benefitting from sustained access to clean water through these two projects,” said Francis Teoh, UNHCR Head of Office in Tyre. In Nmairiyeh, the water pumping station supplies safe and clean water to over 8,500 residents of Nmairiyeh village, including supply for health centers and a public school. The project significantly reduced pollution and decreased the costs related to water supply in the village.
“After two very difficult years, the project gave hope to the village. Having access to clean water is a basic human right. The impact of this project is critical not only to ensure that the residents of Nmairiyeh can have water in their homes, but also, to ensure that health centres, institutions and schools have sustained clean water,” said Mr. Ali Zbib, Mayor of Nmairiyeh. In Douair, the water pumping station supplies potable water to over 6,500 residents, including supply for health centers, the Civil Defense Center, the Internal Security Forces Headquarters and a public school. “Before this UNHCR project, the water station had to shut down for long intervals and was unable to supply water to the residents of the area on a regular basis. Now, thanks to this project, residents in the area have regular access to clean water. We used to suffer from a major water crisis, but with the project contributed positively to solving the problem,” said Mohamed Kanso, Mayor of Douair. As part of its ongoing support to communities across Lebanon, throughout 2022, UNHCR and partners have implemented innovative solutions through over 74 community support projects. These projects have increased Lebanese and refugees’ access to sustainable energy by providing solar-powered electricity to primary healthcare centres, governmental hospitals, water establishment stations and streetlights, benefiting over 1.5 million persons in more than 84 villages across the country. Over the past 12 months, over 60,000 individuals, Lebanese and refugees, benefited from UNHCR projects in south Lebanon alone.

UNHCR's solid auditing system: maintaining program integrity and preventing fraud
LBCI/April 11/2023
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has, internally and externally, a solid auditing system that also includes the regular auditing of partners. The Commission conducts periodic visits and regular monitoring of hospitals, interviews with patients, reviews of their medical files and hospitalizations, and hospital financial records. UNHCR's health program has also recently been audited by independent UN auditing bodies. UNHCR follows a zero-tolerance policy for fraud, takes all allegations of fraud seriously, and follows all necessary procedures following its by-laws.
UNHCR has solid mechanisms to respond to any allegation or suspicion of fraud, whether by refugees or third parties. When you receive any allegations of factual fraud, these allegations are immediately referred to UNHCR staff and appropriate follow-up channels. Each referral relating to an alleged fraud is handled individually and confidentially. The Commission also adopts and continually strengthens a wide range of preventive measures to maintain the integrity of its programs and the confidence of all stakeholders, including refugees, host countries, and the international community. Among these measures, UNHCR regularly communicates with different groups through different communication channels to raise awareness of the risks and consequences of engaging in fraudulent actions. With regard to UNHCR documents, UNHCR systematically warns refugees of the risks of sharing their personal information and/or personal documents with any third parties. In addition to its regular anti-fraud campaigns targeting refugee groups, UNHCR runs a dedicated campaign to raise awareness of exploitative schemes by third parties targeting refugees.

EDL employees to go on four-day strike
NNA/April 11/2023
Electricite Du Liban’s employees and contract workers have declared a four-day strike in protest against the caretaker finance minister’s refusal to approve a reduction to their electricity consumption bill. According to a press release, EDL employees and contractors will suspend work from 12/4/2023 till 18/4/2023 and will refrain from delivering fuel or unloading the vessels that transport it.

Electricité du Liban: Baalbek-Hermel province may be deprived of power for months
LBCI/April 11/2023
Electricité du Liban (EDL) announced that theft operations of the iron mesh corners supporting the high voltage towers in the northern Bekaa regions, specifically in the outskirts of Makneh in the Baalbek-Hermel province, have not stopped and are still ongoing for about a week. Two new towers 220 KV, numbered 19 and 20, were stolen and collapsed, bringing the total number of towers dropped and collapsed within a week to five. However, the company warned of the "deprivation of electricity for most citizens in the Baalbek-Hermel province for long periods, which could be months." In a statement, the company indicated that "maintenance teams affiliated with the institution intervened immediately after the violations occurred and have been trying to save the towers that were stolen and have not yet collapsed for about four days. Within the past two days, it was found that 14 towers near the 66 KV towers were also stolen, ranging from tower number 52 to 65, also on the outskirts of Makneh. These towers belong to the Baalbek-Laboueh-Hermel 66 KV transmission line, which feeds the Laboueh and Hermel stations directly. The towers are now on the verge of collapse, inevitably leading to a power outage in all northern Bekaa regions."The company also highlighted that it "previously warned of the danger of what is happening and appealed again to all security authorities, specifically the military intelligence and information branch, all municipalities, parties, deputies, and activists to help identify the perpetrators and arrest them immediately.""The material losses are severe, and the amount of damage is significant. The company's ability to repair this large amount of damage is very limited, and conducting a tender to rehabilitate the lines requires time, especially since the violations are still ongoing and have not stopped throughout the past week," it emphasized. The company hoped for an "immediate response to its calls before the deprivation of most citizens in the Baalbek-Hermel province of electricity for long periods, which could be months."

Labor Minister discusses employment, signing agreement between Ethiopia, Lebanon
LBCI/April 11/2023
Caretaker Minister of Labor, Moustafa Bayram, talked with the Minister of Labor and Skills in Ethiopia, Muferiat Kamil, about mutual employment between Lebanon and Ethiopia and signing an agreement between the two sides in this field.
At the beginning of the meeting, Minister Bayram welcomed the minister and the accompanying delegation and said: "We consider any foreign worker entering Lebanon as a guest." He also praised the steps taken by the Ethiopian government to carry out an extensive training process for Ethiopian workers, "this raises the moral value of the worker, and it also contributes to a significant return on investment in their national economy, and they also teach them the language of the country they are going to, which facilitates the process of dealing and shortens many distances and saves lots of problems." Bayram expressed that if they reach the signing of the agreement, this will be an essential sign that despite the economic conditions, "we have not overlooked the humanitarian issue, and that the presence of the minister personally with this large delegation is an important sign of your respect for your people."
He stressed the need to consider the economic conditions that Lebanon is currently suffering from and the safety issue for Ethiopian workers is critical, indicating that "we are facing a new page in dealing with recruitment agencies, as we started a reform campaign." In turn, the Ethiopian minister said she had good talks with the Labor Minister regarding the peace and safety of "our daughters." Stating that the facts "indicate that many Ethiopians reside in Lebanon, and I have informed His Excellency of what my country is doing in terms of employment reform, and we want to strengthen the relationship with Lebanon through employment diplomacy." She stressed that the reform is related to skills, work, and teaching Arabic and other languages, pointing out that Ethiopia does not only send domestic workers but also sends engineers, technicians, and nurses, and through these reforms, the work sector is developed, where there will be trained workers, and that the Ethiopian government is committed developing this sector, and it is investing large sums of money for that.

Al-Halabi discusses educational affairs with PSP delegation
NNA/April 11/2023
Caretaker Minister of Education, Dr. Abbas Al-Halabi, on Tuesday met with a Progressive Socialist Party delegation headed by General Secretary, Dhafer Nasser.The meeting discussed educational issues, especially securing teachers' entitlements and productivity allowances. The delegation later briefed Al-Halabi on the progress of the current academic year and discussed with him the impending official exams. Al-Halabi separately chaired a number of administrative meetings, during which he followed up on ministerial affairs.

Gasoline price rises, diesel and LPG's decreases
NNA/April 11/2023
The gasoline price rose by LBP 37,000 this morning, while that of diesel dropped by LBP 2,000 and that of LPG by LBP 18,000.
Consequently, prices are as follows:
95-octane gasoline: LBP 1,821,000
98-octane gasoline: LBP 1,863,000
Diesel: LBP 1,573,000
LPG: LBP 1,104,000

Tehran Shows Openness to 'Permanent Peace' in Yemen, Ending Crisis in Lebanon
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 11 April, 2023
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said that Tehran and Riyadh have taken preliminary steps to exchange ambassadors in the context of the agreement to resume diplomatic relations.
He also expressed his country’s openness to the possibility of reaching a lasting peace in Yemen, as well as its willingness to participate in addressing the current crisis in Lebanon. Speaking during the first press conference of the Iranian New Year, Kanaani commented on several regional developments, Iran’s nuclear plans, the swap of prisoners with the United States, as well as the escalating tension between Tehran and its northern neighbor, Baku. The Foreign Ministry’s spokesman pointed to the arrival of a team of Saudi diplomats to Tehran on Saturday to assess the conditions and preparations for the reopening of the Saudi embassy in the capital, and its consulate in Mashhad, northeastern Iran. He expressed hope that an Iranian delegation would go to Saudi Arabia to arrange procedures for the reopening of the Iranian embassy in Riyadh and its consulate in Jeddah. “It is certain that the recent agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia will have a positive impact on the development of relations… and will consolidate peace and stability and strengthen trade and economic relations between the two countries and the region,” Kanaani told the press conference. On Yemen, the Iranian official noted that his country “agrees to extend the truce” with the aim to “create the favorable conditions for a lasting peace path, which is commensurate with the interests of the Yemeni people.” On whether the Saudi-Iranian agreement will help resolve the Lebanese crisis, the spokesman said that both Iran and Saudi Arabia had good capabilities to help consolidate stability and calm, adding that Tehran was ready to provide support if the Lebanese parties requested it. However, Kanaani spoke with cautious optimism about the resumption of relations with Bahrain. When asked about a Bahraini delegation’s visit to Tehran, he said: “The positive atmosphere in the region and the resumption of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia affect the entire region. With regards to Bahrain, we are witnessing an atmosphere that calls for optimism, but let me not anticipate future developments, and let things take their political course.”In parallel to his talk on the progress of regional relations, the Iranian foreign ministry’s spokesman presented a different picture regarding the nuclear agreement, and touched on the tense relations with Europe and the position on the indirect talks with the United States. Kanaani repeated recent statements made by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last week, during his reception of government officials and parliamentarians, on the occasion of the New Year. He called for expanding diplomatic relations, and not restricting them to some Western countries, in order to help Iran overcome the current economic crisis, especially with the imposition of new sanctions due to the suppression of protests in September.

Federalism is not the silver bullet many Lebanese Christians think it is
Michael Young/The National/April 11/2023
A more viable solution to address their concerns already exists – and it is constitutionally mandated
When France recently supported the candidacy of Suleiman Franjieh for the Lebanese presidency, media reports in Beirut pointed out that Saudi Arabia had opposed this. One argument the kingdom’s representatives made was that if Mr Franjieh were elected to the leading post held by the Maronite Christian community against the majority of Christian parties rejecting his candidacy, this would only reinforce the Christians’ federalist urges.
The Saudis were right to bring this up. There is indeed a growing number of Christians who regard federalism as a remedy for their minority status in Lebanon. The economic crisis that has afflicted the country since 2019, and which the political class has done little about, has driven emigration among all communities. However, the fact that Christians represent a smaller portion of the population has affected them more relative to the Muslim sects.
What many proponents of federalism will hesitate to say is that they perceive it as a sort of divorce. In federal systems throughout the world, however, the adoption of federalism generally involved creating a governing structure allowing for greater unity. In the US, a federal system was adopted in 1789 to bind the states of the union more closely than the confederal structure that had preceded it and that didn’t work. Switzerland, too, adopted a federal system that replaced what had been a much looser confederation.
For many Lebanese Christians, in contrast, federalism is about greater separation – from a Muslim-majority country in which they feel less and less that they have a significant role to play in decision-making. In part, this is due to a perception that the country is now being defined by dynamics largely determined by the Sunni-Shiite relationship.
Indeed, the tendency among many Christians to expand their autonomy in the Lebanese state has existed since the civil war years, which in many respects ended the Christian-dominated Lebanon that had existed before the conflict began in 1975. In the Taif Agreement of 1989, for example, Christians had to accept that the Maronite Christian presidency would lose much of its power, but in exchange they requested broad administrative decentralisation.
Among the steps outlined in this process was the adoption of decentralisation at the level of the small administrative unit, namely the qada, each of which would be headed by a council presided by a qaim’maqam, the senior state-appointed official in the qada. In this way, predominantly Christian areas of Lebanon, namely in Mount Lebanon and parts of North Lebanon, would be able to decide on many aspects of local affairs themselves.
Those clauses in Taif relating to administrative decentralisation were never implemented, only adding to a Christian outlook that the agreement was mostly about taking from the community, while giving nothing in return. This has no doubt helped to reinforce federalist impulses in the community, on the assumption that if greater local administrative autonomy is not in the cards, then something more radical is preferable.
However, while such attitudes may point to the erosion of the Lebanese sectarian social contract, it doesn’t make federalism more realistic. While federalists envisage cantons (for lack of a better word) divided primarily among sectarian groups, the economic viability of those entities remains unclear. Nor has there been much discussion of what would happen to Christian minorities in Muslim-majority areas, or Muslims in Christian-majority areas.
While federalism does not prevent economic complementarity between cantons, when many Christians mention federalism, they tend to portray it as creating largely self-sufficient entities. This says a great deal about the debate itself. There is no reason why the Lebanese should not discuss novel political structures – federalism, broad administrative decentralisation, or others – but the real question is what they are seeking to achieve. If the aim is to improve governance, are sectarian cantons more likely to work than a multi-sectarian makeup? There are no guarantees. While multi-sectarian orders can lead to deadlock, they also impose rules of compromise that are far more efficient for avoiding conflict than monochromatic structures. As for corruption and undermining the rule of law, all communities have been guilty of this, so sectarian cantons may not ameliorate things.
The merit of administrative decentralisation is that it is constitutionally mandated, and could serve as a valuable test for a looser political order. There seems no urgent need to go through a religiously divisive national debate over federalism when a more amenable path exists to address Christian doubts, after which the choice may be more separation, or not. It’s imperative for the political class to implement those dimensions of Taif that remain on hold.
There is a more compelling reason for why Lebanon should think twice about federalism. If it is seen as a way of effectively keeping communities apart, then it could mean losing the one thing that has most characterised Lebanon for generations: its Levantine cosmopolitanism. Few people today have an interest in this anymore, it’s true, but the fact is that without cross-sectarian co-operation, the country will surrender a great deal of what is behind its vitality.
In the end, the problem today is not the fact that Lebanese from different sectarian groups are mixing with one another. It is that each of these groups has a different vision of the state, one that is antagonistic to those of other groups. Federalism would actually only harden that divide, when the solution for Lebanon’s ills really lies somewhere else.
*Michael Young is a Lebanon columnist for The National
https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/2023/04/11/federalism-is-not-the-silver-bullet-many-lebanese-christians-think-it-is/

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 11-12/2023
GCC initiates meeting to discuss Syria's readmission to the Arab League
LBCI/April, 11/2023
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has called for a meeting with nine Arab countries to discuss their relationship with Damascus. The meeting, which will be held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Friday, will include GCC countries, Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been diplomatically isolated since the beginning of the Syrian war in 2011. However, he has recently visited the United Arab Emirates and Oman in an effort to improve relations. Last month, Saudi Arabia announced that it has initiated talks with Syria to resume consular services. The GCC's call for a meeting indicates an effort to explore further steps towards Syria's reintegration into the Arab League.

Iranian Army Downplays Israeli Strike Threats
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/April, 11/2023
Iran’s Army Commander Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi underestimated Israel’s ability to pose a threat to Iran, in Tehran’s first response to warnings by the Israeli Army Chief of Staff, Hezri Halevi, to launch a “preemptive” attack on Iran “even without the help of the United States.”Fars news agency quoted Mousavi as saying that the Zionist entity was no match for Iran’s armed forces. The agency noted that the Iranian army commander’s statements came in response to recent threats by the Israeli Chief of Staff, in which he spoke about the ability of his forces to strike deep into Iranian territory, with the aim of paralyzing the Iranian nuclear program without the need for support from the United States. On Tuesday, Halevi said that the Israeli army would greatly enhance its capabilities for a “preemptive strike against Iran,” adding that such an attack will be “overwhelming” despite the geographical distance. The Israeli official’s threats came after US-Israeli air exercises in Nevada. But the Iranian army commander considered those statements as meant to boost the morale of the Israeli soldiers and fix the internal problems of the regime. “Anyone already familiar with the military capabilities of both sides knows well that the updated size and scale of the Zionist regime’s military would maximally correspond only to one of the plentiful operations that Iran’s Armed Forces undertook during the 1980-1988 Iraqi-imposed war on the Islamic Republic,” the chief commander of the Iranian Army stated. “The Zionist regime, which is sinking and the signs of its collapse are now becoming more evident than before, is too feeble to be viewed as a threat to the Islamic Republic of Iran. The actions of its leaders, which are far from rationality and prudence, will only accelerate the downfall of the regime,” he added.

Military: Syria rocket attack on US base nets no casualties
BEIRUT (AP)/April 11, 2023  
A rocket attack Monday targeted a base in eastern Syria where U.S. troops are based causing no injuries or damage, the U.S. military said. The military said in a statement that one rocket struck the Mission Support Site Conoco in eastern Syria on Monday evening and another rocket was found at the attack point of origin. No one claimed responsibility for the attack. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said that Iran-backed fighters based in eastern Syria might have been behind the attack. In late March, U.S. forces retaliated with airstrikes on sites in Syria used by groups affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. They followed a suspected Iran-linked drone attack that killed a U.S. contractor and wounded six other Americans in northeast Syria. An official with an Iran-backed group in Iraq said the U.S. strikes killed seven Iranians. On any given day there are at least 900 U.S. forces in Syria, along with an undisclosed number of contractors. U.S. special operations forces also move in and out of the country, but are usually in small teams and are not included in the official count. The American troops are trying to prevent any comeback by the Islamic State group, which swept through Iraq and Syria in 2014, taking control of large swaths of territory. The extremists were defeat in Syria in 2019.

Israeli Soldiers Kill Two Palestinian Gunmen in West Bank
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 11 April, 2023
Israeli soldiers shot dead two Palestinian gunmen who opened fire at a military post near a Jewish settlement in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday, Israel's Defense Minister said. "Their successful operation prevented an attack against Israeli citizens," Defense Minister Gallant said in a statement. Earlier, the military had said its forces "neutralized" two gunmen and found rifles and handguns at the scene. There was no immediate comment from Palestinian officials. Israeli-Palestinian violence has surged this year, with frequent military raids amid a spate of Palestinian attacks. More than 90 Palestinians, most of them fighters in militant groups but some of them civilians, have been killed and at least 19 Israelis and foreigners have died since January. Tensions are running especially high as the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish Passover coincide. An Israeli police raid on the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem last week triggered rocket attacks on Israel that were met with Israeli strikes in Gaza, south Lebanon and Syria. On Friday, suspected Palestinian gunmen killed an Israeli-British mother and her two daughters and a ramming attack hours later killed an Italian tourist. On Monday, a Palestinian teen was killed during an Israeli raid.

Israel’s Netanyahu vows to restore security as violence surges
AFP/April 11, 2023
TEL AVIV: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to restore security “on all fronts” after surging violence that included rocket fire from Lebanon and Syria and two more deaths on Monday.
Netanyahu also reinstated the defense minister whose firing he announced last month. Heavy clashes, shootings, rocket strikes and a car-ramming attack have marred a period when the Muslim holy month of Ramadan coincides with the Jewish Passover and Christian Easter. The latest casualties were a Palestinian teenager and a British-Israeli mother who succumbed on Monday to injuries from a West Bank gun attack that earlier killed her two daughters. The day after Israeli police on Wednesday stormed the prayer hall of Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa mosque — Islam’s third-holiest site — more than 30 rockets were fired from Lebanese soil into Israel. The Israeli army said the attack was most likely carried out by the Palestinian armed movement Hamas. Israel then bombarded the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon, targeting “terror infrastructures” it said belonged to Hamas. “We will not allow the terrorist Hamas to establish itself in Lebanon,” by acting on “all fronts,” Netanyahu said at a news conference Monday. Israeli-Palestinian violence had already intensified since Netanyahu’s new government took power in December, a coalition with extreme-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. The latest surge came late last month after he announced a “pause” for dialogue on judicial reform legislation, which split the nation and caused divisions in his government. Among the political casualties was Yoav Gallant, whom the prime minister dismissed on March 26 after he called for a halt to the legislative process, citing national security concerns and threats by reserve military personnel not to report for duty.
Netanyahu is currently battling very low levels of domestic popularity. A recent survey showed him likely to lose if an election were held now. At his news conference, Netanyahu said he and Gallant had “difficult disputes” but he had decided to put them in the past.
“Gallant remains in his post and we will continue to work together for the safety of the citizens of Israel,” he added. In Tel Aviv, several hundred protesters took to the streets to denounce the government and condemn the prime minister’s speech, according to images broadcast by Israeli television.
Earlier Monday several government ministers joined a protest march by Jewish settlers, held under tight security in the north of the occupied West Bank. In the latest shooting in the territory, Israeli forces killed a Palestinian teenager, Mohammed Fayez Balhan, 15, and wounded two other people, the Palestinian health ministry said, during what the army described as a raid to arrest a “terror suspect.” The Israeli army confirmed its forces were operating in the Aqabat Jaber camp, the site of previous deadly Israeli raids this year, near Jericho, where soldiers were seeking “to apprehend a terror suspect.”
The army said troops responded with live fire after “suspects opened fire toward (soldiers), hurled explosive devices and Molotov cocktails.”
A suspect was taken in by security forces, they added.
Clashes erupted when the army entered the camp and surrounded several houses, according to Palestinian news agency Wafa. A Palestinian security official told AFP that five individuals had been arrested during the raid.
Hamas said it mourned the “young martyr” and praised those “standing up to this arrogant enemy.” The operation came as a Jerusalem hospital confirmed that a British-Israeli woman, Lucy (Leah) Dee, had died after being seriously injured in a shooting attack Friday in the West Bank that killed her two daughters, aged 16 and 20. Their car came under fire in the Jordan Valley, where Jericho is also located. The families were residents of Efrat, a Jewish settlement in the West Bank. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly tweeted that there could be “no justification” for the “senseless violence.”
Israel has occupied the West Bank since the 1967 Six-Day War and hundreds of thousands of Jewish settlers live in Israeli-approved settlements there which are considered illegal under international law. Hundreds of Israelis marched Monday in the north of the West Bank, pushing for state approval of an Israeli settler outpost. Several government ministers — including Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir — appeared at the march to Eviatar, whose residents agreed to leave in 2021 while officials examined their case. Addressing the crowd, Ben-Gvir said “the response to terror is to build” settlements. Violence has flared anew since Israeli police stormed the prayer hall of Al-Aqsa mosque in a pre-dawn operation aimed at dislodging “law-breaking youths and masked agitators” they said had barricaded themselves inside. Late Friday, an Italian tourist was killed and seven others wounded in a car-ramming attack in Tel Aviv. The Israeli army also said it had launched strikes on targets in Syria Sunday after rockets fired from there landed in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The conflict has this year claimed the lives of at least 94 Palestinians, 19 Israelis, one Ukrainian and one Italian, according to an AFP count based on Israeli and Palestinian official sources. These figures include, on the Palestinian side, combatants and civilians, including minors, and on the Israeli side, mostly civilians, including minors, and three members of the Arab minority.

Thousands of Israeli settlers on the march to illegal outpost
Agencies/April 11, 2023
RAMALLAH: Extremist Israeli government ministers led thousands of settlers on Monday on a march to an illegal settler outpost in the occupied West Bank that was abandoned two years ago. The Avitar outpost, built on Palestinian land on Mount Sabih south of Nablus, is illegal even under Israeli law, and the marchers demand that it be repopulated is the latest challenge to Prime Minister Benjamin’s authority by far-right members of his Cabinet. Waving Israeli flags and chanting religious slogans and songs, settlers from across Israel marched toward the outpost. They were protected by Israeli security forces who attacked Palestinian protesters nearby. The Palestinian Red Crescent treated 216 people suffering from tear gas inhalation and 22 hurt by rubber bullets. The march was led by more than 20 Knesset members and seven Israeli ministers, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who are leading demands for the legalization of outposts. “With God’s help we will legalize dozens more,” Ben-Gvir said at the march. Rivka Katzir, 74, who lives in the Elkan settlement, said: “I believe that the one solution for all of this problem is if we will settle this place. If there is a new settlement that we want to develop, then we will walk there.”All settlements are illegal under international law, but Israel distinguishes between those planned by the state and outposts established by rogue settlers’ groups without government permission. The Avitar outpost was set up by one such group in 2013, and destroyed and rebuilt several times between then and July 2021, when the last settlers were evicted. Over the years the outpost sparked violent clashes between the Israeli army and Palestinians from the nearby town of Beita, in which 12 Palestinians were killed. Ministers including Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are at the forefront of demands for settlement expansion. Last month the Knesset paved the way for settlers’ return to four settlements in the occupied West Bank by amending a 2005 law that ordered their evacuation, a move condemned by Palestinian leaders and the EU. In February Israel granted retroactive recognition to eight illegal West Bank outposts, also condemned by international organizations. Ghassan Daghlas, who is responsible at the Palestinian Presidency for the settlement issue in the northern West Bank, told Arab News that the settlers’ march aimed to legitimize the theft and plundering of Palestinian lands in favour of Israeli settlement. “We are facing a new settlement battle with this extreme right-wing Israeli government, and if their policies are not met with a strong Palestinian and international popular response, they will reactivate settlement in the northern West Bank and rebuild the settlements that were evacuated in 2005,” he said.

Sixty rescued, two missing after flooding in Israel
Agence France Presse/April 11, 2023
Two people are missing after torrential rainfall caused flooding in southern Israel, police said Tuesday. The emergency services said that they had stepped up operations to rescue holidaymakers caught by floods during a peak travel period, as the Muslim holy month of Ramadan coincides with Jewish Passover and Christian Easter. Heavy rains and high winds since Monday have caused rivers to flood near two key north-south highways, while several roads are blocked near the Red Sea resort of Eilat. Some 60 people have been rescued so far, including some who police said had been "swept away in their vehicles".Two people are still missing near one north-south highway in the Negev desert. A woman earlier reported missing was found to be safe.

Israel Generals Give a Stark Warning: Its Enemies Smell Blood
Amy Teibel and Ethan Bronner/Bloomberg/April 11, 2023
Israel’s Passover holiday week has been a deadly one filled with rocket barrages, enemy drones, drive-by shootings and a car-ramming, prompting a deeply divided society to agree on one thing: its enemies smell blood. A surprising number of security experts, including some who served under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the past, say he’s to blame for the surge in violence — a direct result of his plans to overhaul the judiciary. The proposal, which would curb the power of the courts, has provoked mass protests and threats from elite reservists to rethink their volunteer service. Israel’s foes are “rubbing their eyes in disbelief” and wondering if the country has “decided to die by suicide,” wrote retired Major General Amos Gilad, who headed the Defense Ministry’s influential political-military affairs bureau for more than a dozen years, eight of them under Netanyahu.
Gilad’s comments follow a period of sustained air strikes between Israel and militant groups inside Syria, Lebanon and Palestinian territories. The fighting has also intensified a shadow war Israel is waging with arch-foe Iran, which has established a military and security presence in Syria to defend President Bashar Al-Assad and supports groups opposed to the existence of Israel. “Even though Israel is at the height of its military, diplomatic, economic and strategic power, the perception of its power has diminished since the government’s announcement of the regime change,” Gilad said, using a derogatory term used by those who consider the judicial plan a power grab. General Eliezer Shkedi, who headed the air force for four years, called the fracturing of Israeli society “more dangerous to us than any external threat,” and urged a halt to the judicial legislation. “Never, even in the direst situations, have I felt that our existence was under threat as I do now,” he told Yediot Ahronot newspaper. On Monday night, Netanyahu pushed back, saying the fault lay with the previous government, and he’s coming to the rescue. “Our country is under a terrorist assault,” he said at a press conference. But it “did not start now.”
Inviting Fire
Netanyahu accused opposition leader Yair Lapid of inviting enemy fire when warning of national collapse due to the judicial overhaul.
“Our enemies see this, they hear this,” he said. “They believe they can take us on, with combined terror from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. But now it’s our watch, it’s our responsibility. It’s my responsibility.” Netanyahu said the country would begin to notice an improvement soon. He also officially reinstated Defense Minister Yoav Gallant two weeks after firing him for urging a pause in the judicial legislation. Netanyahu maintains that the courts system must be revamped because the judiciary has grown too powerful. He stopped the legislation so the sides can hold negotiations on a compromise. Most are skeptical that the talks will succeed, and Netanyahu repeated last night that a version of the overhaul will pass. The proposed revamp has provoked strong opposition, with objections coming from President Isaac Herzog, Nobel-winning economists, present and former Israeli central bankers and the powerful tech industry. Last week, Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron warned that in a worst-case scenario, the plan could cut economic growth by as much as 2.8% annually for three years. Reservists, including pilots and members of elite intelligence and combat units, say the plan would undermine Israeli democracy, gut the judiciary and expose them to international charges for war crimes. Some threatened to skip training or service, though there were no reports of refusal during the latest outbreak of violence. “Our enemies maybe see an opportunity because of what is happening inside Israel, but they understand completely that Israel’s capability is not to be messed with,” said the military’s chief spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari. Israel’s forces hit both in Gaza and Lebanon simultaneously, he said, and many of the pilots involved were reservists, proof they are willing to step up regardless of political divisions. Lieutenant Colonel Elad Cinamon, who commands the air defense battalion that operates the Iron Dome anti-rocket system in Israel’s south, said in an interview that none of his forces skipped training, and when the call-up went out after recent rocket attacks, some who hadn’t been called showed up.
Still, words of alarm over security continue to ring out. Retired Major General Tamir Hayman, a former field commander and recently chief of military intelligence, said in an interview with the Zman Yisrael website that after Gallant was fired, he lost faith in Netanyahu. “I do not trust the security judgment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” Hayman, who now runs a security affairs think tank in Tel Aviv, was quoted as saying. The damage the plan has inflicted on Israel’s internal cohesion, economy and ties with the U.S. may be irreversible, he added.
“Two possibilities come to mind: first, Netanyahu is no longer rational, and then that explains everything,” he said. “Second, Netanyahu has something so important to advance that he is prepared to swallow everything — including political embarrassment, internal instability, economic crisis, and the deterioration of the security situation. When I look at the judicial revolution, it doesn’t justify the costs.”

Israeli Holocaust memorial criticizes deal with Poland
JERUSALEM (AP)/Tue, April 11, 2023
Israel’s national Holocaust memorial has criticized a new agreement renewing Israeli school trips to Poland, saying it recommends a number of “problematic sites” that distort history. Yad Vashem issued its statement weeks after Israel and Poland announced a breakthrough agreement meant to repair ties that had been badly damaged due to disagreements over how to remember Polish behavior during the Holocaust. Israeli youth trips to Poland had been one of the key points of contention. The March 22 agreement, which still needs to be ratified by both countries’ parliaments, stresses the importance of youth education “and the need to tell the full story of the dark times of the Holocaust and World War II.” The contents of the agreement were first reported by the liberal daily Haaretz. It also calls for visits to “sites commemorating the Holocaust and other crimes of World War II,” including sites of special importance to each country’s history. Student groups are required to visit at least one site on a long list of museums and memorials recommended by the other government. In its statement, Yad Vashem said the trips must maintain “complete historical accuracy, including the role of Poles in the persecution, handing in, and murder of Jews during the Holocaust, as well as in acts of rescue.”It said the list of authorized sites in Poland had been compiled without its input and includes “problematic sites that should not be visited in an educational context.” The list includes dozens of sites, including art galleries, royal palaces and Jewish history museums that already are popular destinations for Jewish visitors. Poland's Foreign Ministry said the two nations “have come to an agreement that it is good for young people to learn about all aspects of Jewish, Israeli and Polish history, not limited to the Holocaust.”Yad Vashem did not say which sites it considers problematic. But the list includes the Ulma Family Museum, a site that tells the story of a Polish family that rescued Jews during the Holocaust. The museum has been criticized for portraying the family, which was murdered along with the Jews they sheltered, as representative of mainstream Poles at the time, instead of a small minority who risked their lives. Another museum commemorates Poland’s so-called “cursed soldiers,” anti-communist resistance fighters, some of whom collaborated with the Nazis and killed Jews toward the end of the war as they tried to prevent the imposition of communist rule. Israel’s Foreign Ministry played down the controversy. It said the list had been approved by Israel’s Education Ministry and included dozens of choices, including the popular POLIN museum, which presents the history of Polish Jewry. The inclusion of more controversial sites that are unlikely to be visited might be rooted more in Polish politics than international education. Poland's nationalist government can point to the list as it appeals to its political base ahead of parliamentary elections this fall. Poland has been one of Israel’s closest allies in Europe. But in recent years, relations have deteriorated due to disagreements over how to remember Polish involvement in the killing of Jews by German forces during World War II. Nazi Germany occupied Poland in 1939 and killed millions of Jews and non-Jews. Unlike other countries occupied by Germany, there was no collaborationist government in Poland. While some Poles risked their lives to save Jews, others helped the Germans hunt down and kill them. Poland’s governing nationalists have sought to depict Polish crimes as a marginal phenomenon and focus almost exclusively on remembering the Polish heroes who helped Jews. Historians, Israeli authorities and Jewish survivors who suffered persecution at Polish hands before, during and after the war have condemned the nationalist position and accuse the government of seeking to whitewash history. For years, young Israelis made pilgrimages to Auschwitz and other Holocaust and historic Jewish sites. But Israel canceled the trips last year, claiming the Polish government was trying to control the Holocaust-studies curriculum taught to Israeli children. In its lead editorial on Tuesday, Haaretz said the agreement “comes at a heavy cost to Israel” and accused the government of cheapening the memory of the Holocaust in the name of diplomatic expediency. Noting that Israel marks its annual Holocaust memorial day next week, it said: “We must also not forget who the people are who agreed to sell out Holocaust remembrance.”

Kremlin says detained U.S. reporter 'violated' Russian law
(Reuters)/Tue, April 11, 2023
The Kremlin said on Tuesday that Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich had "violated Russian law" and been caught "red-handed", after the U.S. State Department officially designated him as having been "wrongfully detained" by Russia. Russia's federal security service (FSB) arrested Gershkovich last month on espionage charges widely decried as bogus by the White House, other Western countries, the Wall Street Journal, dozens of media organisations and human rights groups. The United States' determination that he was "wrongfully detained" means that it believes he was targeted primarily because he is an American citizen, and its transfer of the case from the State Department to the office of the Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs raises the issue's political profile. Asked about the U.S. move on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov repeated Russia's position that Gershkovich broke the law. "I don't understand what kind of innovations this new regime is introducing. As for what it means, I don't know," Peskov said of the designation. He said Gershkovich had "been caught red-handed and violated the laws of the Russian Federation", before adding: "This is what he's suspected of, but of course, the court will make a decision". More than 99% of criminal cases in Russia end in a conviction for the prosecution and the country has long been criticised by rights monitors for a lack of judicial independence. Russia has presented no evidence to support the case against Gershkovich, which is proceeding in secret because Russia says the case materials are confidential. Next week, a court will hear an appeal from Gershkovich's legal team against an order that he be held in pre-trial detention at Moscow's Lefortovo prison until May 29.

Polish leader heads to US to further strengthen defense ties
WARSAW, Poland (AP)/Tue, April 11, 2023
Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki flew Tuesday to the United States for meetings aimed at strengthening the economic and defense cooperation of the two nations. Morawiecki is due to meet with Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday at the White House for talks including on further support for Ukraine. He is also scheduled to have meetings with the representatives of American defense companies during his three-day visit. “I am flying to the United States to strengthen the alliance with our most powerful ally, with a country that guarantees security in Europe, that especially guarantees security in our part of Europe,” Morawiecki said. Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, the United States increased its military presence in Poland — a nation on NATO's eastern flank that borders Ukraine and Russia's Kaliningrad exclave — and has used Poland as a transit country for military and humanitarian aid going into Ukraine. Poland is also a major donor of aid to Ukraine, and has been ordering fighter jets, tanks and other modern military equipment, mostly from U.S. and South Korean producers, to strengthen its own forces and replace some older equipment sent to Ukraine. As Europe seeks to gain energy independence, Poland is also planning to build nuclear power plants, and has chosen the U.S. government and Westinghouse as its partners for its first plant, to be opened in 2033. Before departing Warsaw early Tuesday, Morawiecki told reporters at the airport that Polish-American relations “have not been so good for a long time, and perhaps they have never been so strong.”He said his talks with the U.S. defense industry will also include talks on financing the billions of dollars of current and planned purchases. Poland is buying U.S. F-35 fighter jets, Abrams tanks, HIMARS artillery systems and Patriot missile launching units. Morawiecki's visit follows two visits to Poland by U.S. President Joe Biden since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also paid an official visit to Warsaw last week. The prime minister said Poland’s alliance with the U.S. is “an absolute foundation of our security.”“It is based on two pillars: economic and defense cooperation. I am going to the U.S. to strengthen both of these pillars,” he said. Morawiecki said that U.S. companies have invested some $25 billion (euros 23 billion) in Poland, creating thousands of jobs.

U.N. tally of confirmed civilian deaths in Ukraine approaches 8,500
GENEVA (Reuters)/Tue, April 11, 2023
Nearly 8,500 civilians are confirmed to have been killed in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a U.N. body said on Tuesday, with many thousands more unverified deaths still feared. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said it had recorded 8,490 people killed and 14,244 injured between the launch of the invasion of Feb. 24, 2022, and April 9, 2023. The body has long described its figures as "the tip of the iceberg" because of its limited access to battle zones. The majority of the deaths were recorded in territory controlled by the Ukrainian government and under attack by Russian forces, including 3,927 people in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which have witnessed intense fighting. "OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration," it said in a statement. Russian forces have pressed their offensive in the eastern Donetsk region where several cities and towns have under heavy bombardment. A U.N.-mandated investigative body found last month that Russian forces had carried out "indiscriminate and disproportionate" attacks on Ukraine. Russia denies targeting civilians or committing atrocities.

A former Russian military intelligence officer defected to Ukraine and is setting up his own battalion of dissidents
Mia Jankowicz/Business Insider/April 11, 2023
A former Russian intelligence officer has defected and says he's setting up a pro-Ukrainian unit. The "Siberian battalion" will disrupt Russia from within, founder Vladyslav Ammosov said. Ammosov said he has passed Ukrainian background checks.A former Russian military intelligence officer has defected to Ukraine, and says he is setting up a battalion to disrupt Russian activities, according to local reports. Vladislav Ammosov told Radio Free Europe that with his "Siberian battalion" he is "ready to deploy immediately into Russian territory as a part of a sabotage and reconnaissance group and destroy enemies who support Putin's authorities," per a translation by The New Voice of Ukraine. Ammosov, who is from the Yakut ethnic group, added that the unit is to be filled with dissidents from different ethnicities. Ethnic minorities in Russia are treated like second-class citizens, he said, according to Ukrainian outlet Focus. They have also long been reported to be over-represented in Russia's combat losses. Focus noted that it's still unclear exactly how Ammosov's putative force would take shape. Oleg Zhdanov, a reserve colonel of the Ukrainian army, told the outlet that Ammosov's unit could be seen as being similar to the pro-Kremlin Wagner Group private military company, but could sabotage Russia from within, carrying out assassinations, kidnappings and attacks. Ammosov served in the GRU — the military intelligence wing of Russia's army — for 15 years before moving to Europe, Radio Free Europe reported. Originally from the Siberian city of Yakutsk, Ammosov said that he became "an imperialist who fell for propaganda," and fought on Moscow's behalf in the second Chechen war, per The New Voice of Ukraine. There, the outlet reported him as saying, he was taught "to destroy entire countries." He said he left the GRU before Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. Ammosov said he passed Ukrainian security checks, with Radio Free Europe reporting that Ukrainian officials had confirmed his story. Even so, Ukrainian political analyst Vladimir Fesenko added a note of skepticism, telling Focus that groups like Ammosov's can be incoherent and focused mainly on media attention rather than being truly effective. There have been a number of mysterious fires and explosions at sensitive Russian sites since its invasion of Ukraine. None have had a formal explanation, which has led to speculation that they were targeted by Ukrainian commandos or Russian dissidents. According to Focus, Ammosov's unit is the fourth such dissident unit to be formed.

Hungary’s Top Diplomat Visits Moscow Despite EU Stance
Veronika Gulyas/Bloomberg/April 11, 2023
Hungary’s top diplomat flew to Moscow for talks on energy — a rare visit by an official from a European Union country — in a move that underscores Budapest’s schism with the rest of the bloc over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto’s meetings with two energy officials are part of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s effort to maintain his country’s dependence on Russian oil, gas and nuclear supplies even as EU partners move to break free. After visiting Belarus in February in another rare trip to a Moscow ally under western sanctions, Szijjarto met Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Alexander Novak and Alexey Likhachev, the chief executive officer of state nuclear corporation Rosatom. Novak and Likhachev are both under sanctions from Ukraine and some of its allies, although not by the EU. Orban has criticized EU sanctions against Russia, saying they don’t work, despite economic data showing they have at least dented the ability of President Vladimir Putin’s government to build weapons and intensify his war in Ukraine. Novak is crucial to Hungary’s continued efforts to import gas and oil from Russia after Orban clinched an exemption from an EU ban on most crude imports by threatening to block it. Rosatom is overseeing the expansion of Hungary’s Paks nuclear power plant, a deal that has drawn criticism for giving Putin influence over an EU country’s energy supply. The “preparatory works are underway to construct auxiliary buildings” at the territory of Paks 2, the Russian company said in a Telegram post after the meeting. Rosatom is continuing the process of obtaining licenses for certain types of works, it added.

Russian forces in Crimea brace for possible Ukraine assault
KYIV, Ukraine (AP)/Tue, April 11, 2023
The Moscow-appointed leader of Crimea said Tuesday the region is on guard for what may be an impending Ukrainian counteroffensive. Sergei Aksyonov told reporters that Russian forces in Crimea had built “modern, in-depth defenses” and had “more than enough” troops and equipment to repel a possible Ukrainian assault after 13 months of war following Russia's full-scale invasion. “We cannot underestimate the enemy, but we can definitely say that we are ready (for an attack) and that there will be no catastrophe,” he said. His comments came days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed Kyiv’s intention to take back the Black Sea peninsula that Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Aksyonov first announced the beginning of fortification works in Crimea in November, without giving details. In February, at a security meeting chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin, he said that the works were set to finish by April. Satellite images published last week showed a complex web of trenches and other fortifications dug near Medvedivka, a small town near a crossing between Crimea and mainland Ukraine, suggesting Russian concerns about a possible Ukrainian attack there. Military analysts expect Kyiv to take advantage of improving weather to seize the battlefield initiative with new batches of Western weapons, including scores of tanks, and fresh troops trained in the West. Ukrainian forces could seek to break through the land corridor between Russia and Crimea, heading from Zaporizhzhia toward Melitopol and the Azov Sea. That might split the Russian forces in two. Kyiv’s forces face a formidable challenge to dislodge Russian forces, however. Their armor likely will encounter minefields, anti-tank ditches and other obstacles, while extensive trench systems provide cover for Moscow’s troops. The Kremlin wants Kyiv to acknowledge Russia's sovereignty over Crimea and also recognize September's annexation of the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine has vowed to drive the Russians out of all occupied territories and has ruled out any talks with Moscow until it fully reclaims control of its land. The Ukraine-held parts of the four provinces have felt the brunt of Russian bombardments in recent months, and seven civilians were wounded by Russian shelling in Donetsk and Kherson on Monday and overnight, the presidential office reported Tuesday. Russia on Tuesday also used Su-35 aircraft to launch strikes on two towns in the Zaporizhzhia region, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office said. Andriy Yermak said in a Telegram post that local authorities were assessing the damage in the towns of Orikhiv and Huliaipole, each of which had a pre-war population of just under 14,000. Russian artillery also hit a church in Kherson, blowing out its windows and damaging its roof and walls, the Ukrainian regional military administration reported on Telegram. It said there had been no casualties. ___ Associated Press Writer Yuras Karmanau in Tallinn, Estonia, contributed to this report. ___ Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

Hungary agrees on option for more gas shipments from Russia, oil transit fees -minister
BUDAPEST (Reuters)/Tue, April 11, 2023
Hungary's foreign minister said on Tuesday that Russian energy giant Gazprom would maintain an option to supply additional gas to Hungary this year on top of the shipments agreed under a long-term deal. After talks with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in Moscow, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto also said on his Facebook page that Hungarian oil and gas group MOL will pay transit fees directly to the Ukrainian pipeline operator Ukrtransnafta for crude shipments it gets on the Druzhba pipeline.Ukrtransnafta notified Russia's pipeline operator Transneft of its plans to raise the fee it charges for the transit of oil, sources told Reuters late last month. Szijjarto has been visiting Moscow for talks since the outbreak of the war in neighbouring Ukraine, despite criticism from both sides of the Atlantic. Landlocked Hungary gets 80-85% of its gas from Russia, and Szijjarto said that last year about 80% of crude imports also arrived from Russia. While countries in western Europe have made serious efforts to wean themselves off Russian gas, Hungary has been receiving 4.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year from Russia under a 15-year deal signed in 2021. The gas transits mainly through the Turkstream pipeline, which allows Moscow to bypass Ukraine to carry Russian gas to southern Europe. "Gazprom maintains the option that if we need it, for preparations for winter or filling up storages....we can buy additional gas on top of the amount set in the long-term deal," Szijjarto said. He said Novak reassured him that gas shipments on the Turkstream pipeline will come without disruptions. Turkstream will be stopped for maintenance from June 5 to 12, according to data posted earlier by Bulgarian gas transmission operator Bulgartransgaz. Szijjarto also said that Russia's state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom agreed to modify a contract, originally signed in 2014, to expand Hungary's Paks nuclear plant. Rosatom was awarded the contract to build two 1.2 gigawatt VVER reactors, adding to the existing four reactors, without an international tender. Szijjarto said construction and financing contracts on the long-delayed project would be modified and that the European Commission would also have to approve the changes. He did not give further details.

Russia starts fuel supplies to Iran by rail -sources
MOSCOW (Reuters)/April 11, 2023
Russia started fuel exports to Iran by rail this year for the first time after traditional buyers shunned trade with Moscow, according to three industry sources and exports data. Russia and Iran, both under Western sanctions, are forging closer ties in order to support their economies and to undermine Western sanctions which both Moscow and Tehran cast as unjustified. Western sanctions on Russian oil products over what Moscow calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine have reshaped global fuel markets with tankers taking longer routes and suppliers choosing exotic destinations and ways of transportation. Iran has been under Western sanctions for years with limited access to global markets. The oil ministries of Russia and Iran did not reply to requests for comment. Last autumn Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the start of swap supplies of oil products with Iran, but actual shipments only started this year, Reuters sources said. In February and March Russia supplied up to 30,000 tonnes of gasoline and diesel to Iran, two sources familiar with the export data told Reuters. A third source confirmed the trade but was not able to confirm the volumes. All the volumes were supplied by rail from Russia via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. One of the sources said that some gasoline cargoes were sent on from Iran to neighbouring states, including Iraq, by truck. Iran is an oil producer and has its own refineries, but recently its consumption had exceeded domestic fuel production, especially in its northern provinces, a trader in Central Asian oil products market said. Russia had supplied small volumes of fuel to Iran by tanker via the Caspian Sea, as was the case in 2018, two traders familiar with the matter said. Russian oil companies are currently interested in exporting diesel and gasoline to Iran by rail as exports by sea face high freight rates and a price cap imposed by the G7 countries. However the rail exports face bottlenecks along the route, the sources said. "We expect fuel supplies to Iran to rise this year, but we already see several issues with logistics due to rail congestion. That may keep exports from booming," one of the sources familiar with supplies to Iran said.

Taiwan bear badge punches back after China drills
Robert Plummer/BBC News/April 11, 2023
People in Taiwan alarmed at China's latest military drills have found a symbolic way of turning a geopolitical tussle into a bear-knuckle fight. A popular new badge depicts a Taiwanese black bear punching Winnie the Pooh, who often appears in memes representing Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The fad began among air force pilots, but has since gone viral. Taiwan is a self-ruled island with its own government and constitution, but China sees it as a breakaway province. On Monday, China finished three days of military drills around Taiwan, which included "sealing off" the island and simulating targeted strikes. Beijing began the exercises on Saturday after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen met US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California. After the drills ended, Taiwan's defence ministry said it would not stop strengthening its combat preparedness. Images and videos released by the ministry to back up its stance included the sight of a pilot wearing a sew-on patch of the battling bears - and social media users were quick to highlight it. The badge, available in two versions, has the word "Scramble!" at the bottom, one of them also proclaiming "We are open 24/7".A third badge shows a Taiwanese fighter pilot slapping a panda, China's national symbol. Taiwanese people were quick to snap up the Pooh-punching patches, which retailed at 200 Taiwanese dollars (£5.30; $6.50). They were produced by Wings Fan Goods in Taoyuan city, east of the capital, Taipei, which has now sold out of them. Taiwan's air force told the Reuters news agency that it did not "particularly encourage" its members to wear the patch, which is not a part of their uniform. However, it added that it would "maintain an open attitude" to anything that raised morale.

China’s super rich are voting with their assets – and fleeing Xi’s regime
The Telegraph/April 11, 2023
It’s now two months since Chinese billionaire Bao Fan “disappeared”. The 52-year-old investment banker was one of Shanghai’s most successful financiers. That didn’t save him from being seized with no announcement; all Bao’s company has said is that he is cooperating with government investigations.
This was a sharp reminder to other entrepreneurs: Xi Jinping’s China can be a hostile environment for business. Until recently, China was a great place to get seriously rich: Evergrande, Alibaba, Tencent are just a few companies that made billionaires of their founders and created entire ecosystems of wealth. But that has now changed. In the last few years, Beijing has mauled China’s successful homegrown tech industry, subjected the economy to senseless lockdowns and crowned Xi leader for life. He has brought back the Maoist slogan of “common prosperity”, extorting “donations” from the Chinese elite in the name of redistribution, while disappearing one of them every so often (charges can take years to be brought). It’s no wonder that rich Chinese have been planning escape routes for their money and themselves. Increasingly, they’re turning to Singapore, the city-state dubbed “the Switzerland of Asia”. In some ways, this is nothing new. China’s opening up since Mao’s death has been paired with incremental reforms to capital control. Wherever possible, Chinese elites have been stashing their money offshore. It’s sometimes just good business to make use of favourable interest rates abroad or diversify the currencies your wealth is held in. But for many, a major consideration has always been that you could never guarantee your wealth would remain yours under a Communist system. In 2015, in the aftermath of Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, an estimated £800 billion of wealth was evacuated out of China. In the end, the central bank was forced to spend a similar amount to prop up the yuan, after which capital controls were tightened. But there’s renewed urgency now, and with the end of zero Covid, money and people can move around much more freely than in the previous three years. In 2022, around £36 billion left the country under the category of “errors and omissions” according to official data, suggesting “the exit of residents’ money in an unofficial way”, according to the economist Alicia Garcia-Herrero.
Trust between the wealthy and the government has been destroyed. It’s not just the occasional disappearance, but also the way Xi Jinping has crushed China’s homegrown Silicon Valley through punitive fines and forced resignations. Much of this has been done in the name of “common prosperity”, with rumours that a wealth tax might be on the way. This year, Beijing has also renewed its anti-corruption campaign, targeting the financial sector in particular. And under zero Covid, the hand of the state intruded into every part of people’s lives to an extent not seen since the Cultural Revolution. For the liberal minded, Chinese politics seems to be going the wrong way, while the business minded simply wonder how long they can keep their money – and themselves – safe. This anxiety was revealed in a curious 60-page critique of Xi Jinping from last year. It was an anonymous Chinese blog which went viral, impressively well-informed and ruthlessly critical of the President. “China’s political elite feel panicked, and want to move their capital out before the country is bankrupted”, the author wrote. Their grasp of the CCP’s internal machinations raised questions of whether the author was in fact a Party insider, perhaps hoping to destabilise Xi ahead of the National Party Congress.
So where is safe for the discerning investor? In previous years, the choice would have been Hong Kong, but that’s now under Beijing’s control. This was clear as far back as 2017 when a Chinese asset manager was abducted, by mainland police, from Hong Kong’s Four Seasons Hotel. His disappearance shocked the city, foreboding the death of the “one country, two systems” arrangement. One Hong Kong based economist tells me that’s when most prescient Chinese started getting their cash out. Three years later, the National Security Law resolutely scrapped any remnants of “two systems”. It gave Beijing the powers to freeze the assets of anyone charged under the new rules. So Jimmy Lai, owner of Hong Kong’s now-shuttered pro-democracy Apple Daily newspaper, saw his fortune frozen when he was arrested. He’s now in the maximum security Stanley Prison, serving a five year sentence. One high net worth individual, from mainland China, tells me that even her Hong Kong-based private bank is urging her to move her assets into Singapore. The former British colony is still very Chinese: three-quarters of the people there are of Han descent. It has famously low taxes and a high standard of living – but its main advantage is that it’s not under Beijing’s thumb. So in 2021, it saw a record £270 billion inflow of assets under management, almost twice as much as flowed into Hong Kong.Rents have increased by 30pc in the last year, while anecdotally, headmasters of international schools, luxury car salesrooms, accountants and immigration lawyers in the city all report a massive increase in interest from the Chinese.
The number of “family offices” tending to the super-rich has almost doubled to 700 over the last two years, with some estimating that the number will soon hit 1,500. Singaporean paper Lianhe Zaobao reckons investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Guangdong make up almost half of the new offices. It’s an attractive, safe and obvious escape route for the not-crazy rich Asians. But nobody knows how long this escape route will last. Locals are already complaining about the new Chinese arrivals pushing up prices, while Singaporean authorities have quadrupled the threshold for an investor visa to £6 million. And from Beijing’s perspective, given its experience from 2015, how long will it wait before acting to stem the deluge? The Financial Times reports that when Bao Fan went missing, he was also preparing to move some of his money to Singapore. He doesn’t seem to have made it in time. His peers will want to avoid making the same mistake.

Taiwan needs more than weapons to thwart China’s ambitions
Alessio Patalano/The Telegraph/April 11, 2023
A Taiwanese air force fighter pilot beside his F-CK-1 defence fighter jet in an undisclosed location in Taiwan, as China conducts military exercises around the self-ruled island A Taiwanese air force fighter pilot beside his F-CK-1 defence fighter jet in an undisclosed location in Taiwan, as China conducts military exercises around the self-ruled island Russia’s invasion of Ukraine represented a watershed moment for the West. It brought back the brutality, devastation, and the substantial operational costs of a large-scale conventional land war at the heart of the continent. It has also forced political leaders in Europe and beyond to face the reality that states – especially revisionist authoritarian regimes – can still consider war as an acceptable down payment to their aspirations. Practitioners and expert observers alike are now engaged in a series of soul-searching exercises to understand what lessons this conflict may hold to better deter, and indeed prepare for, future wars elsewhere. With ties across the strait of Taiwan hostage to a militarily assertive Beijing retaining the option to use force to achieve reunification, observers have naturally turned their attention to China’s revisionist ambitions. The three days of wargames China conducted over the island has only increased anxieties. It is crucial, however, to understand that the dynamics of today’s war in Ukraine are fundamentally different from the character of a potential risk of war over Taiwan tomorrow. Operational analysis of an unfolding continental war in Europe is not relevant to understand what capabilities are needed to counter a strategy to deter a maritime one in East Asia.
Crossing the strait is not equal to amassing 130,000 men across a land border. Indeed, in an invasion of Taiwan, strategic surprise would be incredibly hard to achieve and a large-scale amphibious assault would be fraught with risks. This does not mean that Beijing’s military threat to Taiwan is not to be taken seriously, but when combined with existing Chinese efforts to pressure the Taiwanese people to accept the ‘inevitable’ through coercion and interference, a different Ukrainian parallel comes to mind. As the latest ‘encirclement’ rehearsal in the strait suggests, the Chinese strategy for Taiwan is more akin to that pursued by Russia through pressure and destabilisation prior to the Maidan Uprising and the subsequent limited military campaign for the illegal annexation of Crimea. In the maritime theatre around Taiwan, Beijing possesses options to elevate tensions and substantially increase pressure on the Taiwanese.
Blockading or overtaking any of the offshore islands under Taiwanese control, notably Pratas and Itu Aba islands, would present Taiwanese authorities and the international community with a challenging dilemma in terms of responses, not least because they lay far from Taiwan and would be very hard to defend. Vitally, it would give China a foothold on Taiwanese territory, not in the same way Putin had in Crimea – but of no less strategic significance to psychologically pressure the Taiwanese people and lend a hand to those who argue the inevitability of Taiwan’s reunification with China.
It would also help facilitate China's long-term political strategy. The main opposition party, the Kuomintang, holds a different stance about the future of Taiwan to the anti-Chinese mainstream. This past week, as Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen met with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during a stopover visit in the United States, former President Ma Ying-jeou made a historic visit to China. There, he hinted that in a choice between ‘peace and war’ a different policy position is desirable. For China, boosting such political figures, seeking to sow political discontent that could be used to justify more direct action, is far more likely than a direct invasion. This is exactly what Russia did in Ukraine successfully for decades. So what are the capabilities needed to deter war over Taiwan now? Intelligence aimed at unmasking Chinese interference and unveiling Beijing’s intent over the elevation of military action would be an ideal place to start. This, in turn, would enable the West to identify how to best support Taiwan in training against attempts at offshore islands overtakes and blockades, and procure adequate capabilities for mining, undersea surveillance, and submarine warfare in a contested air battle space.
In short: Taiwan today is in fact Ukraine in reverse. The core of our attention should not be on the capabilities needed to meet forces that have landed ashore. It should be on those needed to prevent a landing – even on offshore islands – from happening in the first place.
*Alessio Patalano is Professor of War & Strategy in East Asia at the Centre for Grand Strategy, King's College London

Armenia, Azerbaijan report soldiers killed in border clash
YEREVAN, Armenia (AP)/April 11, 2023 at 12
Military forces from Armenia and Azerbaijan clashed Tuesday along their border, and the defense ministries of both countries reported that soldiers were killed. The confrontation follows months of tensions over the blockage of the only road connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan. Armenia's Defense Ministry said Azerbaijan fired on soldiers who were performing unspecified engineering work near the Armenian village of Tegh, about 3 kilometers (2 miles) from the border. Azerbaijan said it was Armenian soldiers who opened fire. Neither side said how many of its soldiers were killed or wounded. The clash area lies along the Lachin Corridor, the road that leads to Nagorno-Karabakh. That region came under control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia in 1994 after a separatist war in which Armenia also took control of adjacent territories. During six weeks of intensive fighting in 2020 that ended with a Russia-brokered truce, Azerbaijan took control of the territories and of part of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. Russia sent in a peacekeeping force that was tasked with maintaining order and protecting the Lachin Corridor. But in December, demonstrators who claimed to be environmental activists began blocking the road, alleging that Armenia was conducting illegal mining in the region. Armenia contends the protests are orchestrated by Azerbaijan. In turn, Azerbaijan alleges that Armenians have used the corridor to transport land mines into Nagorno-Karabakh in violation of the armistice terms. The road blockage has led to food shortages in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan also has periodically cut gas and electricity supplies.

Russian paratroopers are getting thermobaric tank-mounted 'flamethrowers' to make them more deadly after a string of failures, UK intel says
Sinéad Baker/Business Insider/April 11, 2023
Russia's paratroopers are getting a powerful new weapon in Ukraine, the UK MOD said. The airborne force's strength had been dented after heavy losses in the invasion of Ukraine. But the UK MOD said the move suggests Russia wants it to play a larger role in any new offensive. Russia's airborne force is being armed with so-called "heavy flamethrowers," as the military tries to reconstitute the elite units after they suffered heavy losses earlier in the invasion of Ukraine, according to UK intelligence. The UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Tuesday that, according to Russian media, paratroopers were receiving TOS-1A thermobaric multiple launch rocket systems. Russia designates the weapon as a "heavy flamethrower," the MOD said. The weapon is mounted onto tanks, and is more powerful than conventional explosives. Experts say it is particularly effective at targeting trenches, which is what much of the fighting in Ukraine currently looks like. One expert told Newsweek that the weapon causes "extremely powerful shock wave which can shatter buildings." The Russian airborne forces, known as the VDV, isn't normally equipped with this kind of weapon, which is typically used by Russia's specialist Chemical, Biological and Radiological Protection Troops, according to the UK MOD. The "highly destructive" weapon "has not previously been formally associated with the VDV," it said. It added that the transfer likely indicates a future role for the VDV in offensive operations in Ukraine and "is likely part of efforts to reconstitute the VDV after it suffered heavy casualties in the first nine months of the war."The VDV played a key role in early efforts to take the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, Insider previously reported. But after Russia failed to take the city, it ended up playing a role that it wasn't designed for: namely spearheading armored columns.The paratroopers suffered heavily in multiple engagements in Ukraine, including an entire mechanized patrol that was destroyed by Ukraine in a Kyiv suburb in March 2022. Russia's efforts to reconstitute the paratrooper force mirrors its efforts to rebuild other once elite units that suffered significant losses. Earlier this month the UK MOD highlighted Russian efforts to repair the reputation of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet. Experts say that the 155th's losses have been so high that the military has had to replenish it with new troops as many as eight times.

Leaked intelligence document shows that Egypt, a longtime US ally, secretly planned to provide Russia with 40,000 rockets and gunpowder: report
Azmi Haroun/Business Insider/Mon, April 10, 2023
Egypt negotiated a massive weapons and gunpowder sale to Russia covertly, per The Washington Post. The revelation was made public through a leaked top-secret document, which surfaced on Discord. The US has said there is no proof that Egypt sold the 40,000 rockets to Russia, per the Post. A leaked US intelligence document blew the lid on secret arms negotiations between Egypt and Russia, where Egyptian President Abel Fattah El-Sisi planned to provide the Kremlin with tens of thousands of rockets. The Washington Post obtained a series of classified files posted in February and March to the gaming platform Discord. One of the files detailed conversations between high-level Egyptian officials over the sale of weapons to Russia. In one document, Sisi instructs officials to keep the shipment and mass weapon production secret, "to avoid problems with the West."The top secret document, dated February 17, features discussion from Egyptian officials about how to supply their Russian counterparts with gunpowder and artillery from Egyptian factories, per the Post. Egypt has been a longtime US ally, receiving over $1 billion in military aid annually, while also deepening relations with Moscow under El-Sisi's rule, per the Post. The revelation first reported by the Post could have a chilling effect on US-Egypt relations, and potentially lead to sanctions if Egypt did indeed covertly supply the weapons to Russia. Last week, a trove of classified US documents leaked online, revealing new wrinkles about Russia's campaign in Ukraine and key details about Ukraine's military. It's still unclear who leaked the documents, which could pose grave concerns for the US as some documents include classified analyses about China, detailed breakdowns of Russia and Ukraine's strategies in the war, and information about confidential sources. The Pentagon has formally referred the leak to the US Department of Justice to investigate. Ahmed Abu Zeid, Egypt's ambassador to the US and the spokesman for the country's Foreign Ministry told the Post that "Egypt's position from the beginning is based on non involvement in this crisis and committing to maintain equal distance with both sides, while affirming Egypt's support to the U.N. charter and international law in the U.N. General Assembly resolutions. We continue to urge both parties to cease hostilities and reach a political solution through negotiations."US security officials told the Post that the large weapons deal never appeared to materialize in the past months. The Pentagon did not immediately return Insider's request for comment.

UN Chief Guterres Makes Second Visit to Somalia
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 11 April, 2023
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres arrived in Mogadishu on Tuesday to kick off a brief visit to Somalia, a country scarred by protracted armed conflict and climate disasters. Guterres was given a red-carpet welcome at the capital's airport by Somalia's Foreign Minister Abshir Omar Huruse who posted pictures of the event on Twitter. Somalia has imposed a security lockdown on Mogadishu for the visit, with most roads closed and public transport restricted. Guterres's trip comes with the country in the grip of a calamitous drought that has driven many to the brink of famine, while the government is also engaged in a major offensive to put down a bloody insurgency. The UN chief, who previously visited Somalia in March 2017, is due to hold talks with political leaders and visit a camp for internally displaced people, according to local media reports. The United Nations has launched a $2.6 billion appeal for humanitarian aid for the troubled Horn of Africa nation, but it is currently only 13 percent funded. Five straight failed rainy seasons in parts of Somalia as well as Kenya and Ethiopia have led to the worst drought in four decades, wiping out livestock and crops and forcing at least 1.7 million people from their homes in search of food and water. While famine thresholds have not been reached in Somalia, the UN says about half its population will need humanitarian assistance this year, with 8.3 million affected by the drought. "The crisis is far from over -- needs remain high and urgent," the UN's resident coordinator for Somalia, Adam Abdelmoula, said last week in Geneva. "Some of the most affected areas continue to face the risk of famine."Adding to the woes, seasonal rains in March led to flooding that claimed the lives of 21 people and displaced more than 100,000, he said, while warning that the rains were unlikely to be enough to improve the food security outlook for many.
Offensive against Al-Shabaab
Somalia was hit by a famine in 2011 which killed 260,000 people, more than half of them children under six, partly because the international community did not act fast enough, according to the UN. A report by the UN and the Somali government released in March said that drought may have led to 43,000 "excess deaths" last year, with children under the age of five accounting for half the victims. One of the poorest countries on the planet, Somalia has been wracked by decades of civil war, political violence and a bloody insurgency by the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud last year declared "all-out war" against the militants and sent in troops in September to back an uprising against Al-Shabaab launched by local clan militias in central Somalia. In recent months, the army and the militias known as "Macawisley" have retaken swathes of territory in an operation backed by an African Union force known as ATMIS and US air strikes. The government claimed late last month that more than 3,000 Al-Shabaab fighters had been killed since it launched the offensive. It also said in a statement issued by the information ministry that 70 towns and villages had been "liberated" from Al-Shabaab, which has been fighting the fragile central government for more than 15 years. It was not possible to independently verify the claims. Al-Shabaab has frequently retaliated against the offensive with bloody attacks, underlining its stability to continue to strike civilian, political and military targets despite the government's advances. In a report to the UN Security Council in February, Guterres said that 2022 was the deadliest year for civilians in Somalia since 2017, largely as a result of Al-Shabaab attacks.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 11-12/2023
Why Palestinians Cannot Resume Peace Talks with Israel
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./April 11, 2023
Once a Palestinian leader makes such a serious (and false) allegation against Jews [such as "violent storming of the al-Aqsa Mosque"], he is telling the Arabs and Muslims that the Jews... should therefore be fought against, not welcomed as peace partners.
If you tell your people (again, falsely) that the Israelis are perpetrating "war crimes," "desecrating mosques" and "stealing land," what will the Palestinians think of you when they see you sitting with an Israeli? They will denounce you as a "traitor" and call for your death.
By describing the Jews as "colonizers," [Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad] Shtayyeh is seeking to send a message that the Jews have no religious or historical connection to their homeland, Israel.
In the eyes of Shtayyeh and many Palestinians, all Jews living between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea are "colonizers" and "settlers." These Palestinians see no difference between a Jew living in a Jewish community in the West Bank and a Jew living in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. For them, all Jews are foreigners who have no connection whatsoever to Israel and Jewish holy sites and no right ever to live there. Period.
Palestinian leaders such as Shtayyeh are straightforwardly saying that they see Israel as one big illegal settlement that must be eradicated... [and not] as a place for anyone other than Muslims.
[C]ontrary to the false claim made by Shtayyeh and other Palestinian leaders, the Jews who visit the holy site have never set foot inside the al-Aqsa Mosque.
One of those who have failed to call out the Palestinians for their antisemitism and lies is US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
"Palestinians and Israelis alike are experiencing growing insecurity, growing fear in their homes, in their communities, in their places of worship," Blinken argued.
If the Palestinians are "experiencing growing insecurity," it is because they are enabling terrorists to operate freely against Israel within their own communities. If the Palestinians want to live in their homes in security and without fear, they could stop terrorists from planning and executing terror attacks against Israel. If the Palestinians want to feel safe in their worship places, they could stop attacking and harassing Jews....
The Israeli army does not send its soldiers to Palestinian cities for fun. The only reason Israeli troops enter Palestinian cities and towns is to arrest terrorists or foil terror attacks that are being planned.
The Israeli security forces are actually forced to launch these counterterrorism operations because the Palestinian Authority and its president, Mahmoud Abbas, are not fulfilling their obligations under the terms of their agreements with Israel to prevent and combat terrorism.
Instead, Abbas and the Palestinian leadership continue to glorify terrorists and to reward them and their families financially through the infamous "Pay-for-Slay" program. These are payments for killing Jews – like Murder, Inc.
In a place such as the West Bank that has lived off handouts from Europe, the US, Qatar and Iran, and where the Palestinian Authority never bothered to build any kind of industrial or self-sustaining economic base, paying people to murder Jews has, in a poor region, become a booming jobs program.
Every day, every Jew in Israel literally walks around with a bounty on his or her head. If you are a Jew in Israel, every day is "hunting season."
In the world of Palestinian leaders, a terrorist is entitled to murder or wound Jews, but when the Jews manage to foil the attack or kill the terrorist, the Jews should be condemned for perpetrating "crimes" and "violating international law."
What is more bizarre is that Blinken, who did not utter a word to refute the lies coming out of Abbas's mouth, instead chose to praise the Palestinian leader: "I also appreciate, Mr. President, your consistent and resolute stance against terrorism."
For the Biden Administration, a Palestinian leader who glorifies terrorists as "heroes and martyrs" and pays their families monthly salaries deserves praise for his "stance against terrorism." If this US position was not so dangerous, it would be a sad joke.
If the Biden administration wants to understand why Palestinian leaders cannot resume any "peace process" with Israel, Blinken and the State Department would be advised to listen to the anti-Israel statements and lies of Abbas and Shtayyeh. These lies include charges that Israel is committing "war crimes," "extra-judicial killings," "ethnic cleansing," and "apartheid."
As long as Palestinian leaders continue to incite violence against Israel and Jews, these leaders will never return to any negotiating table with Israel.
Naïve Americans and gullible Europeans keep giving these leaders every incentive to continue their program of "Murder, Inc." by rewarding them with "free" money for terrorism -- with no strings attached. Under those terms, who wouldn't continue killing Jews -- or anyone? It is a gold mine.
Finally, these leaders might simply find it more comfortable to perpetuate the drama of the "cause" rather than the anonymous, less-than-heroic tedium of running a state. Unless, of course, that state could entail driving out the Jews.
By describing the Jews as "colonizers," Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh is seeking to send a message that the Jews have no religious or historical connection to their homeland, Israel. In the eyes of Shtayyeh and many Palestinians, all Jews living between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea are "colonizers" and "settlers."
As the Biden Administration continues to state its commitment to a "two-state negotiated solution" between the Palestinians and Israel, Palestinian leaders are pursuing their campaign to vilify Israel and demonize Jews. This campaign, which is manifest mostly in the rhetoric of the leaders and the Palestinian media, mosques and schools, has made it impossible – not to mention personally dangerous – for any Palestinian leader to seek a negotiated and peaceful settlement with Israel.
A Palestinian leader who repeatedly condemns a visit by Jews to the Temple Mount, Judaism's holiest site in Jerusalem, as a "violent storming of the al-Aqsa Mosque" can never agree to be seen sitting at the same negotiating table with Jews. Once a Palestinian leader makes such a serious (and false) allegation against Jews, he is telling the Arabs and Muslims that the Jews are violating the sanctity of Islamic holy sites and should therefore be fought against, not welcomed as peace partners. If the Palestinians see this leader sitting with Jews, they will attack him for being associated with those who "defile" Islamic holy sites.
These leaders have radicalized their people against Israel -- and Jews -- to a point where it has become unsafe even to be seen in the presence of Israelis. If you tell your people (again, falsely) that the Israelis are perpetrating "war crimes," "desecrating mosques" and "stealing land," what will the Palestinians think of you when they see you sitting with an Israeli? They will denounce you as a "traitor" and call for your death.
A Palestinian leader who makes such a dangerous accusation cannot then afford to be seen in the company of any Jew, not even at a dinner meal.
Recently, a group of Palestinian clan leaders and businessmen, who were invited to an iftar (Ramadan fast-breaking meal) with Jews, received threats and were accused by many Palestinians of treason.
A Palestinian leader who refers to any Jew who visits a Jewish holy site as a "settler" and "colonizer" can never agree to be seen engaging in peace talks with such Jews.
Take, for example, the latest statements of Palestinian Authority (PA) Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh, who has long spewed vitriol against Israel and Jews.
On April 3, Shtayyeh again denounced Jews for daring to visit the Temple Mount. Referring to these Jews as "colonizers," the Palestinian PM falsely accused them of violently storming the al-Aqsa Mosque, located on the Temple Mount. By describing the Jews as "colonizers," Shtayyeh is seeking to send a message that the Jews have no religious or historical connection to their homeland, Israel.
In the eyes of Shtayyeh and many Palestinians, all Jews living between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea are "colonizers" and "settlers." These Palestinians see no difference between a Jew living in a Jewish community in the West Bank and a Jew living in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. For them, all Jews are foreigners who have no connection whatsoever to Israel and Jewish holy sites and no right ever to live there. Period.
By calling all Jews "colonizers" and "settlers," Palestinian leaders such as Shtayyeh are straightforwardly saying that they see Israel as one big illegal settlement that must be eradicated. Such remarks by Palestinian leaders also show that the Palestinians still have not come to terms with Israel's right to exist as the homeland of the Jewish people, or as a place for anyone other than Muslims.
It is worth noting that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has, on a number of occasions, made it clear that the Palestinians will not, under any circumstances, recognize Israel as a Jewish state. A Palestinian leader who says he will not accept Israel as a Jewish state is in fact stating that he wants to see Israel removed from the face of earth or replaced by another state with a Muslim or Arab majority where Jews might be permitted to live, under inferior conditions, as a "tolerated" minority.
The false allegation that Jews are conducting violent incursions into the al-Aqsa Mosque is an old blood libel that aims to depict Jews as armed gangsters who have no respect for holy sites. It is this kind of libel that promotes antisemitism and endangers the lives of Jews around the world.
It is also important to point out that in the past few years, Jews have been conducting peaceful tours of the Temple Mount; the only violence and harassment comes from the Arabs who physically and verbally attack them. It is even more important to also note that, contrary to the false claim made by Shtayyeh and other Palestinian leaders, the Jews who visit the holy site have never set foot inside the al-Aqsa Mosque.
Yet, Palestinian leaders are not known to let facts stand in their way. They continue to spread falsehoods and libels about Israel and Jews with the clear knowledge that many people around the world believe everything they hear from the Palestinians. Those who remain silent or fail to confront the Palestinians about their lies and antisemitism are complicit in the poisonous propaganda campaign to delegitimize Israel and demonize Jews.
One of those who have failed to call out the Palestinians for their antisemitism and lies is US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
During a visit earlier this year to Ramallah, the de facto capital of the Palestinians, Blinken stood next to PA President Mahmoud Abbas as the Palestinian leader again made false accusations and spread lies about Israel. The lies included charges that Israel was carrying out "ethnic cleansing, apartheid and other crimes" against the Palestinians. Abbas also condemned Israel for launching counterterrorism operations in the West Bank and demanded, in the presence of Blinken, that the US support his demand to provide the Palestinian people, including the terrorists who carry out attacks against Israel, with "international protection."
Instead of calling out Abbas for his libels and lies against Israel, Blinken delivered a politically correct speech that equated between Palestinian terrorism and Israel's counterterrorism measures. "Palestinians and Israelis alike are experiencing growing insecurity, growing fear in their homes, in their communities, in their places of worship," Blinken argued.
If the Palestinians are "experiencing growing insecurity," it is because they are enabling terrorists to operate freely against Israel within their own communities. If the Palestinians want to live in their homes in security and without fear, they could stop terrorists from planning and executing terror attacks against Israel. If the Palestinians want to feel safe in their places of worship, they could stop attacking and harassing Jews who visit Jewish holy sites such as the Temple Mount in Jerusalem and Joseph's Tomb in the Palestinian-controlled city of Nablus.
The Israeli army does not send its soldiers to Palestinian cities for fun. The only reason Israeli troops enter Palestinian cities and towns is to arrest terrorists or foil terror attacks that are being planned.
The Israeli security forces are actually forced to launch these counterterrorism operations because the Palestinian Authority and its president, Mahmoud Abbas, are not fulfilling their obligations under the terms of their agreements with Israel to prevent and combat terrorism.
Instead, Abbas and the Palestinian leadership continue to glorify terrorists and to reward them and their families financially through the infamous "Pay-for-Slay" program. These are payments for killing Jews -- like Murder, Inc.
In a place such as the West Bank that has lived off handouts from Europe, the US, Qatar and Iran, and where the Palestinian Authority never bothered to build any kind of industrial or self-sustaining economic base, paying people to murder Jews has, in a poor region, become a booming jobs program.
Every day, every Jew in Israel literally walks around with a bounty on his or her head. If you are a Jew in Israel, every day is "hunting season."
Abbas has not only failed to disarm the various militias that have emerged in areas under his control. The exact opposite is true: he and other Palestinian officials have been industriously fanning the flames by praising the terrorists as "martyrs" and accusing Israel of carrying out "extrajudicial killings."
In the world of Palestinian leaders, a terrorist is entitled to murder or wound Jews, but when the Jews manage to foil the attack or kill the terrorist, the Jews should be condemned for perpetrating "crimes" and "violating international law."
What is more bizarre is that Blinken, who did not utter a word to refute the lies coming out of Abbas's mouth, instead chose to praise the Palestinian leader: "I also appreciate, Mr. President, your consistent and resolute stance against terrorism."
For the Biden Administration, a Palestinian leader who glorifies terrorists as "heroes and martyrs" and pays their families monthly salaries deserves praise for his "stance against terrorism." If this US position was not so dangerous, it would be a sad joke.
If the Biden administration wants to understand why Palestinian leaders cannot resume any "peace process" with Israel, Blinken and the State Department would be advised to listen to the anti-Israel statements and lies of Abbas and Shtayyeh. These lies include charges that Israel is committing "war crimes," "extra-judicial killings," "ethnic cleansing," and "apartheid."
As long as Palestinian leaders continue to incite violence against Israel and Jews, these leaders will never return to any negotiating table with Israel.
Moreover, Palestinian leaders will never agree to a "negotiated two-state solution" with Israel as long as the message they are sending to the Palestinians says that Jews have no right to their own homeland. The belief that Palestinian leaders may soon resume the "peace process" with Israel indicates the self-deception and woozy wishful thinking of those Americans and Europeans who continue to put their faith in failed Palestinian leaders such as Abbas and Shtayyeh. Naïve Americans and gullible Europeans keep giving these leaders every incentive to continue their program of "Murder, Inc." by rewarding them with "free" money for terrorism -- with no strings attached. Under those terms, who wouldn't continue killing Jews -- or anyone? It is a gold mine.
Finally, these leaders might simply find it more comfortable to perpetuate the drama of the "cause" rather than the anonymous, less-than-heroic tedium of running a state. Unless, of course, that state could entail driving out the Jews.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East
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The Global Order: Movement… Recalibration and Adaptation
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al-Awsat/April, 11/2023
A series of consequential events that rarely occur simultaneously unfolded last week. The most interesting, though also the least significant, was US President Donald Trump’s arraignment in a Manhattan courtroom over hush-money payments to pornographic actress Stormy Daniels. Alleged to have used campaign funds to buy her silence about a sexual encounter they had had, Trump was arrested, had his fingerprints taken, and charged with 34 crimes, including these payments. He could be imprisoned if convicted.
Trump has denied all charges and claimed that prosecutors are Democratic partisans. Regardless of the eventual verdict, the trial sets a historic precedent whose implications will go beyond the next presidential elections and continue to affect US politics overall. Other ongoing investigations, including those tied to the insurrection on Capitol Hill by Trump’s supporters, could be more grievous.
The second development is Finland’s accession to NATO, becoming the alliance’s 31st member. This dangerous and historic move had not been unexpected, and it marked a radical shift in the country’s security policy. NATO forces are now stationed just a few hundred kilometers away from Finland’s border with Russia. Moscow retaliated with threats of “countermeasures,” while US President Joe Biden said he was excited about the move. Sweden is expected to follow in Finland’s footsteps as pressure on Türkiye mounts on the heels of an unpredictable election whose outcome could nullify Türkiye’s resistance.
The third development is the meeting in Beijing that brought together the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iran, which was held to follow up on last month’s agreement to reestablish relations.
As for the fourth development, it is the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to China. Claiming that Beijing is capable of directly and radically tipping the balance of the conflict, Macron urged it to do more to end the conflict and not to take steps that threaten Europe’s supreme interests.
The fifth development unfolded in the Middle East and has two tracks. The first is the escalating violence against Palestinians in the occupied territories. The latest round of violence began with the formation of the fanatical Israeli government a couple of months ago and peaked last Wednesday when, firing rubber bullets, throwing tear gas, and wielding batons, the Israeli police raided the Al-Aqsa Mosque Compound. The raid was followed by clashes in Jerusalem and the West Bank, and then the firing of rockets from both Gaza and South Lebanon; in turn, Israel later retaliated to these attacks that “united the arenas.”
The second track is the mounting tensions between Israel and Iran, which have been manifesting themselves in Israeli military operations in Syria against Iranian targets, the latest of which led to the deaths of two IRGC officers and experts. Iran declared that it would avenge the assassinations, and the Israeli strikes on western Syria on April 1 that targeted several air bases, which are believed to contain IRGC and Hezbollah drones, were reportedly aimed at thwarting a major coordinated retaliatory attack by Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. The next day, Israel announced that it shot down a Shahab suicide drone in the Gaza Strip.Iran might choose to retaliate in a different manner, like attacking Israeli-linked tankers as it has done in the past, or launching a terrorist attack against Israeli citizens abroad. The barrage of rockets fired towards Israel from South Lebanon on Thursday, the most dangerous attack since the 2006 war, could give us an idea about Iran’s other options.
This tense atmosphere adds to the events taking place in Israel, where extremist parties and their more extreme rivals are bickering over an array of issues. Meanwhile, Washington is becoming increasingly concerned about Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.
According to Western media reports, the Biden administration has recently discussed a proposal for a temporary Iran agreement with its European and Israeli partners. The deal would see some sanctions lifted in exchange for Tehran putting parts of its nuclear program on hold. These reports indicate that the United States has not ruled out diplomacy and a revival of the 2015 deal, despite having removed it from the agenda last year due to Iran’s provision of military assistance to Russia amid its war on Ukraine and Tehran’s clamp down on domestic protests.
Would Tehran accept such a proposal from the US, and would this kind of deal serve the interests of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states? Iranian officials would probably rebuff a new proposal and refuse any deal that offers anything less than the previous agreement. The United States would then probably walk back on this proposal to finally satisfy the Iranians.
All of these developments, among many others, demonstrate that global tensions and frictions are escalating a critical juncture for the international order that has been in place since World War II. They show that the world has entered a new phase as the balance of power between the global giants and their alliances are being recalibrated. In the Middle East, there are serious attempts to avoid being dragged into a new cold war that would cost the region dearly and undermine the interests of its states.
Moreover, China has made notable inroads into the region. It has broken the monopoly that the US had held as the only power that could offer regional actors guarantees, going from a soft power paving the Silk Road to an arbiter that can settle disputes in the region, as it did with the deal between the Kingdom and Iran. And although Russia continues to wage its war against Ukraine, it has not stopped providing crucial support to its ally, the Syrian regime, facilitating its recognition by Arab states and working on a rapprochement between the regime with Erdogan’s Türkiye.
As we have mentioned in previous articles, the United States now has to adapt to the emergence of competitors both within and outside the region. While it would be premature to consider their rise as a crushing defeat for the US, we should recognize that the US has lost the initiative. Indeed, even its ally Israel is defying White House directives. As for Saudi Arabia, its political pragmatism has allowed it to develop innovative strategies for safeguarding its national security and furthering its supreme national interests. The Kingdom is seeking to resolve crises and pave an independent foreign policy path (without severing ties with its traditional allies) through more vigorous diplomacy. The same could be said of other countries in the region, including Egypt and Jordan, as affirmed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahian during the announcement of the agreement with Riyadh when he suggested that his country had been working to improve ties with other regional powers. To sum up, current developments point to a decline in US influence and give a preliminary idea of how the US and Chinese divide will share influence in a new international system. Washington is fortifying its control over the Western bloc and the opponents of China in Asia, while Beijing is expanding through new alliances. Indeed, even Russia is part of its axis.

Saudi Arabia’s dangerous policy mix
Haitham El-Zobaidi/The Arab Weekly/April 11/2023
Saudi Arabia has been under no illusion that its leadership of the OPEC+ coalition during the past few years can create problems with the United States.
Washington’s aggressive behaviour, directed in particular against the young Saudi leadership, triggered forms of bullying by Riyadh, starting with its oil policies and including the development without limits of ties with China at the risk of upsetting the Joe Biden administration.
The sudden decision by OPEC+ a few days ago to reduce production by more than one million barrels per day did not please the US. This was not just because the decision hiked oil prices, but because Saudi Arabia has shown an ability to coordinate its moves with all members of the oil producers’ cartel, and work to convince them to cut their output without the US finding out beforehand about the Saudi-led efforts.
The relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia has not reached a state of strategic crisis. Perhaps the expression “This borrows a page from your book” is pertinent here, especially when one looks at the way the Biden administration acted before its inauguration, by threatening to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah.” The US has paid a steep price for this kind of hubris.
Accommodating the Biden administration is not a priority for the Saudi leadership. One is waiting to see whether Riyadh’s attitude towards the US is the same regardless of which administration is in the White House or whether tensions in the relationship would ease if the 2024 US election ushers in a Republican administration.
Is it in the interests of Saudi Arabia to weaken the global standing of the United States? Or has the Saudi leadership taken stock of the decline in Washington’s global posture and accordingly changed course by steering away from its absolute reliance on American support as it modified the nature of its relationship with the United States first, then diversified its options so as to include in them China and other emerging powers?
The problem with the Saudi relationship with the United States is that it is bound to extend to the rest of the West. It is true that Western nations have generally kept quiet about the decisions of OPEC+. When they complain, it is about the possibility that the price hike stemming from the production cut would serve the interests of Russia in its war in Ukraine. However, one knows from current developments in Europe that there are no real demarcation lines between the positions of the Europeans and those of the United States when vital issues are at stake. Oil and gas prices are among such vital issues.
One does not know what Washington usually says to Riyadh behind closed doors. But one can be sure that the US administration, which began its term in office by issuing threats to Riyadh, will not hesitate to use a number of pressure cards in its talks with the Saudis. It has become a hackneyed cliché in the discourse of Western newspapers and think tanks to say, “The Saudi F-15 fighters cannot fly without American spare parts and American technicians who supervise their maintenance.” Washington has tried to withdraw Patriot missile batteries from Saudi Arabia at a critical stage amid the Saudi-Iranian confrontation.
What we know for a fact now is that the threat not to supply the kingdom with spare parts for F-15s and to withdraw the Patriot missiles did not change Saudi Arabia’s policies. On the contrary, there is now increasing talk about Riyadh possibly moving away, at least partially, from dealing in dollars in currency clearing houses, as Riyadh recently announced its decision to trade with China based on the yuan. This is a very dangerous game that will not go unnoticed.
The United States believes that its pressure on oil-producing countries is an acquired right, which it does not intend to relinquish. When oil prices fell to levels that threatened US shale oil production, the Donald Trump administration asked the producing countries to cut production so that the producing US companies would not go bankrupt. The Biden administration has since clamoured for an increase in oil production to prevent the rise in prices, because of strategic and domestic considerations. Sometimes, the producing countries do not know what exactly is required of them. They do not know whether they are supposed to increase production or reduce to it, when the United States, the country most responsible for climate warming, addresses the issue of clean energy.
I am not an economist, but I know that oil is the most important strategic commodity in the world, today. But what about electronic chips? They are certainly a strategic commodity just like oil.
Without processors and memory chips, it is just as difficult to imagine modern life as we know it. It would be the same as being without energy.
But Korean companies, such as Samsung, believe they have the right to cut production of memory chips by half, in order to compensate for the glut in the chip market. They can do so without receiving any threats from the United States because of the high price of chips. Undoubtedly, these are double standards at work. Samsung is entitled to do what Saudi Arabia is not.
Since the threats made to OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia did not work, the tone of the US narrative has changed to intimidation: the rise in oil prices at this particular juncture, we are told, will lead the world to inflation and then recession, and with recession, the countries of the OPEC+ alliance will be affected and their economies will decline. It is a kind of mixing facts with exaggerations to achieve an immediate political effect. The United States is not known to shy away from its stratagems when the world discovers its methods, or even its lies.
But the United States remains the United States. It is the world’s most technologically-advanced power. It has the means to exert media and political pressure and to greatly influence the West and the rest of the world.
Is it the only superpower now? It is difficult to say for sure at the moment. But it is certainly a global power that cannot be considered to be in decline in the face of other rising powers. This is the lesson which Russia has learnt the hard way in its war in Ukraine, especially when Washington provided Kiev with lethal weapons such as Javelin shoulder-fired missiles, which forced Russian armoured columns to withdraw when they were about to storm Kiev. It was also the case with the HIMARS precision missiles which began targeting Russian troop concentrations in the eastern theatre of operations in Ukraine.
Who, beside the US, has the technical ability to target the Russian underwater gas “Nord Stream” pipeline and also wields enough political and media clout to prevent the hypothesis of pipeline sabotage being seriously discussed?
There is no doubt that the deep state in the United States is not comfortable with the strained relationship with Saudi Arabia, just as it is uneasy with Saudi-Chinese rapprochement and with Riyadh’s intent to restore relations and carry on with reconciliation with Iran.
The CIA Chief William Burns talks in public about intelligence cooperation with Riyadh while complaints about Saudi decisions are leaked through the media. Saudi leaders seem to be aware of this US modus operandi and are not very much concerned about it.
One cannot say that Saudi Arabia pursues a “zero problems” policy just because it sent its foreign minister or national security adviser to Beijing to meet the Iranians. Nor can one assert that Riyadh pursues a policy of “creating problems” only because it seems neglectful of its strained relationship with the US after OPEC+ decisions and its growing ties with China.
Equally, it cannot be said that the “Saudi Arabia First” policy is of itself sufficient to explain the change in the way Riyadh manages its relations with both West and the East. What drives Saudi policies may be a mixture of all of the above. It is certainly a dangerous mix bound to carry consequences.
*Dr Haitham El-Zobaidi is the executive editor of Al Arab Publishing Group.

Al-Azhar shows willingness to steer away from rigid positions, avoid clash with government
Ahmed Hafiz/The Arab Weekly/April 11/2023
The views set out by Sheikh Ahmed el-Tayeb, the head of Egypt’s most prestigious religious institution of Al-Azhar, on the CBC TV channel during the month of Ramadan reflect a dramatic change in the influential Sunni sheikh’s positions towards many social issues demonstrating a desire to avoid conflict with the government of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
In his TV programme, Tayeb called for more openness in dealing with interpretations of the faith to keep up to date so as to keep pace with requirements of the times and ensure the vitality of Islam asserting that a perpetual renewal of Islamic jurisprudence was a necessity.
Tayeb admitted there was need to put an end to the practice of polygamy, which has been a cause of injustice to women. He stressed that the licence to practice polygamy as stipulated by the Holy Coran ran was conditional. He also called for the abolition of the “House of Obedience” (bayt al-ta`a) provision, through which a wife, based on a husband’s complaint, can be summoned by a court of justice to return to her marital home if she leaves it without permission. This provision has caused the oppression of women as they risk being divorced without alimony if they refuse. The willingness by the sheikh of Al-Azhar to be flexible on some social issues suggests that he is no longer able to withstand the official and popular pressures he faces.
Al-Azhar’s steering way from rigid positions on issues that have been openly debated by the government and in parliament, such as those dealing with marriage, divorce and personal status, reflects a desire to present itself in a more modern and progressive light and live up to the state’s expectations.
Al-Azhar has faced continued criticism from various segments of society and has had to bear the brunt of Sisi’s impatience with what he sees as the sterile positions of outdated religious institutions.
With his political sophistication and experience, Sheikh Tayeb wants to avoid an unnecessary and dangerous confrontation with the Sisi government.
Sameh Eid, a researcher on Al-Azhar affairs and political Islam groups, told The Arab Weekly that Al-Azhar’s flexibility aims to lower tensions with the government and also to build a popular support base that would be inclusive of modernists.
Without prior coordination with Al-Azhar, Sisi took the initiative a few days ago of announcing the imminent legislation abolishing out-of-court “verbal divorce”. His move showed that the Egyptian president was exasperated by Al-Azhar’s stagnant positions and was not afraid to enter into a public confrontation with the religious institution and its leaders.
Al-Azhar wants on the other hand to win over people who oppose undue interference in family legislation, show flexibility in its positions and ensure the continued participation of the religious institution in enacting laws which have wide social implications.
The recent calm tone of Tayeb suggests that many of the pressure cards that the religious establishment once held in dealing with the government are no longer of value. Sharia-based rulings can no longer offer sufficient cover for Al-Azhar’s scholars who want to shield themselves from Sisi’s challenging vision.
Eid further told The Arab Weekly that besieging the government with religious crises is an old Al-Azhar tactic that no longer works in the face of a cohesive and strong state, especially now that the currents of political Islam have significantly frayed.
Al-Azhar realises now that its disputes with Sisi are fraught with danger, so it is reluctant to challenge the Egyptian president insistence that the civil authorities alone should decide on issues that could determine the shape of Egyptian society.
Sisi sees himself as entrusted with protecting society and freeing it from the yoke of narrow-minded religious interpretations and Salafist tendencies.
Out of step with the challenges of the state and its concerns, Al-Azhar has been perceived by the authorities as too preoccupied with creating and maintaining its privileges in some form of “parallel state” and expanding its scholarly influence.
It is not expected that the government will let up criticising Al-Azhar, being aware that any added political pressure is likely push the religious institution to retreat even further in order to avoid the erosion of its influence and the loss of its autonomy.
For the time being, Al-Azhar is bound to remain on the defensive.
*Ahmed Hafiz is an Egyptian writer.