English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 20/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
The Parable of the Slaves and the Master who Entrusted them with Different Amounts Of Money to Invest
Saint Luke 19/11-28/:”As they were listening to this, Jesus went on to tell a parable, because he was near Jerusalem, and because they supposed that the kingdom of God was to appear immediately. So he said, ‘A nobleman went to a distant country to get royal power for himself and then return. He summoned ten of his slaves, and gave them ten pounds, and said to them, “Do business with these until I come back.”But the citizens of his country hated him and sent a delegation after him, saying, “We do not want this man to rule over us.”When he returned, having received royal power, he ordered these slaves, to whom he had given the money, to be summoned so that he might find out what they had gained by trading. The first came forward and said, “Lord, your pound has made ten more pounds.” He said to him, “Well done, good slave! Because you have been trustworthy in a very small thing, take charge of ten cities.”Then the second came, saying, “Lord, your pound has made five pounds.” He said to him, “And you, rule over five cities.” Then the other came, saying, “Lord, here is your pound. I wrapped it up in a piece of cloth, for I was afraid of you, because you are a harsh man; you take what you did not deposit, and reap what you did not sow.” He said to him, “I will judge you by your own words, you wicked slave! You knew, did you, that I was a harsh man, taking what I did not deposit and reaping what I did not sow? Why then did you not put my money into the bank? Then when I returned, I could have collected it with interest.” He said to the bystanders, “Take the pound from him and give it to the one who has ten pounds.”(And they said to him, “Lord, he has ten pounds!”) “I tell you, to all those who have, more will be given; but from those who have nothing, even what they have will be taken away. But as for these enemies of mine who did not want me to be king over them bring them here and slaughter them in my presence.” ’After he had said this, he went on ahead, going up to Jerusalem.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 19-20/2021
MoPH: 450 new coronavirus cases, 4 deaths
President Aoun to representative of Arab Group at IMF: Lebanon is keen to cooperate, reach agreement as soon as possible with IMF
President signs decree appointing two Constitutional Council members, Justice Minister Director General
Parliament OKs March 27 Polls Date, Axes Expat Seats amid Bassil Objection
Berri spurns Bassil’s “threats”, says 20 women quota suggested today
Mikati chairs educational meeting, Halabi says set of new measures involving schools to be announced as of tomorrow
Statement of the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon on Women’s Representation in Politics
Bassil Decries 'Legislative Massacre' against Electoral Law
Geagea: Nasrallah's Words Can Only Convince a Few Christians
Sami Gemayel Calls for 'Withdrawing Parliamentary Legitimacy' from Hizbullah in Elections
Judiciary to Hold Meetings on Port Case as Eyes Turn to Tayyouneh Investigations
4 Dead, 7 Hurt in Armed Clash in Akkar Town
Jumblatt after meeting with Mikati: When the time is right, we must reconsider the defense strategy
Army Chief receives French ambassador, Turkish military attaché
Mikati meets IMF Executive Director: Government has started planning financial and economic recovery, including basic reforms
Geagea meets National Liberal Party delegation
Lebanon confirms March elections amid race to secure IMF rescue
Beset by political setbacks, Hezbollah finds solace in military clout
Hezbollah 100,000 fighters is a symbolic lie - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/October 19/2021
Lebanon's latest crisis unlikely to escalate, experts say/Elias Sakr/The National/October 19/2021
IMF in talks with Lebanon, calls to address financial losses
U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Comments on Women's Parliament Quota
Lebanon Ruling Class United against Probe Seen as Survival Threat
Parallels/Ronnie Chatah dwells on comparisons of childhood memories of the civil war to last week’s tragedy in Tayyouneh, and the violence that persists./Ronnie Chatah/October 19/2021
Vive la Résistance/Jean-Marie Kassab/Octobre 19/2021
Celui qui a pris le marteau au Parlement aujourd’hui est Nabih Berri, chef des mendiants armés qui ont pris d’assaut vos rues./Jean-Marie Kassab/Octobre 19/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 19-20/2021
Iran Says U.S. Should Lift Sanctions to Prove it Wants Talks
Senior Israeli Official: Israel disappointed with Biden administration's Iran policy
Israel Okays Palestinian Residency Claims, a First since 2009
Tensions rise again between Turkey, West over Kavala case
Strong Earthquake Strikes off Turkish Mediterranean Coast

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 19-20/2021
Huawei's Long Game/Peter Schweizer/Gatestone Institute/October 19/2021
Turkey Threatens New Military Offensive in Northern Syria/Aykan Erdemir and David Adesnik/Policy Brief-FDD/October 19/2021
Touch wood and hope for a new dawn in Iraq/Nadim Shehadi/Arab News/October 19/202
Morocco’s king appoints new ambassadors to tackle key issues with Europe/Mohamed Alaoui/The Arab Weekly/October 19/2021
Elections showed utter limits of Iraqis’ support for Iran/Ibrahim al-Zobeidi/The Arab Weekly/October 19/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 19-20/2021
MoPH: 450 new coronavirus cases, 4 deaths
NNA/October 19/2021
450 new coronavirus cases and 4 deaths have been recorded in Lebanon in the past 24 hours, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health on Tuesday.

President Aoun to representative of Arab Group at IMF: Lebanon is keen to cooperate, reach agreement as soon as possible with IMF
NNA/October 19/2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received the representative of the Arab Group at the International Monetary Fund and its Executive Director, Dr. Mahmoud Mohieldin, today at Baabda Palace. Dr. Mohieldin was accompanied by his two advisors, Maya Choueiri and Mira Marei. The President assured Dr. Mohieldin that “Lebanon is keen on cooperating with the Fund and reaching an agreement with it as soon as possible on the basis of updating and developing the financial, monetary and banking recovery plan, implementing an integrated program for social protection and health care, and approving anti-corruption laws”.
During the meeting, the road map that will be developed for Lebanon's interaction with the International Monetary Fund in the next stage, and the need to expedite the delivery of the Fund's team all the necessary financial data to prepare the file in preparation for the necessary negotiations were tackled. President Aoun also thanked Dr. Mohieldin for the interest shown by the IMF towards Lebanon, stressing work to accomplish what is required from the concerned Lebanese authorities to speed up the negotiation process. After the meeting, Dr. Mohieldin stated that he addressed the existing cooperation between the Lebanese state and the International Monetary Fund, especially on issues related to public administration, reforms, the banking sector, and issues related to governance, transparency, and structural reforms in the Lebanese economy.
In addition, Mohieldin pointed out that with the existence of a new government with full powers, it will be possible to complete negotiations between Lebanon and the Fund, and with ministers in the government, concerned with cooperating with the Central Bank, to convey the full picture to the Fund's experts to move the negotiation path forward, which aims to advance the Lebanese economy and restore confidence in it.—Presidency Press Office

President signs decree appointing two Constitutional Council members, Justice Minister Director General
NNA/October 19/2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, signed Decree No. 8384 dated October 19, 2021. The decree appoints retired judge, Albert Sarhan, and lawyer Mireille Emile Negm as members of the Constitutional Council for the remainder of the current term of the Council.
The President also signed Decree No. 8385 dated October 19, 2021, transferring Judge, Mohamed Al-Masry, from the Judicial Inspection Authority and appointing him as Director General of the Ministry of Justice.
It is noteworthy that the Cabinet, in its session on October 12, approved these appointments. ----Presidency Press Office

Parliament OKs March 27 Polls Date, Axes Expat Seats amid Bassil Objection
Naharnet/October 19/2021
Parliament on Tuesday voted to approve a bill bringing forward the elections date from May to March 27, as it amended the electoral law to cancel the six expat seats as well as megacenters and the magnetic voting card. Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil meanwhile objected to the change of the elections date and the cancellation of expat seats and megacenters. “The meteorological department says storms might occur on the elections’ scheduled date, which might make the process difficult, in addition to the coincidence of electoral deadlines with the fasting of Christian sects,” Bassil said. As for the six expat seats, Bassil stated: “This is a right and a national achievement that was made in 2017, so why is there an attempt to back down from it now? What are you afraid of? If it wasn’t for these expats, the country would have collapsed, and you’re finding it too much to grant them six MPs?” Responding to Bassil’s warning that there might be legal challenges before the Constitutional Council, Berri said: “Let no one threaten me. I allow anything but threats.”Bassil had also insisted on electoral megacenters, arguing that “they lessen influences and transportation costs for voters,” but Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi said the issue needs a law.

Berri spurns Bassil’s “threats”, says 20 women quota suggested today
NNA/October 19/2021
House Speaker, Nabih Berri responded, on Tuesday responded during the parliament’s plenary session at the UNESCO Palace to MP Gebran Bassil who had promised to “appeal the change of elections date to March 27." “No one threatens me; I allow everything except for threats,” Berri said as responding to Bassil. On the other hand, Berri had said in an intervention during the women’s quota discussions, “It is as if there are those who do not want wish to see an end to this country’s problems. Three years ago, the Development and Liberation bloc proposed a proportionality based law with Lebanon being one electoral district; it suggested a senate with equal shares between Muslims and Christians, reaching a civil state,” Berri said, adding that among the contents of the proposed law is a 20 women quota, which is similar to the current proposal.


Mikati chairs educational meeting, Halabi says set of new measures involving schools to be announced as of tomorrow
NNA/October 19/2021
Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Tuesday welcomed at the Grand Serail head of the Education Parliamentary Committee, MP Bahia Hariri, with whom he discussed the country’s political developments and educational condition. Mikati later held a meeting with Minister of Education, Judge Abbas Al-Halabi, MP Hariri, and Ministry of Education’s General Director, Dr. Fadi Yarak. Following the meeting, Minister Al-Halabi said, “We’ve discussed issues that involve teachers and schools in public and private sectors, as well as the best means to ensure a smooth scholastic year amid the country’s difficult circumstances.”“We’ve agreed on a set of measures that we will announce as of tomorrow with the Prime Minister, who will receive a delegation representing the teachers’ unions in public and private schools,” Al-Halabi added.

Statement of the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon on Women’s Representation in Politics
NNA/October 19/2021
The UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Ms. Joanna Wronecka encourages the discussion in Parliament of a gender quota in the upcoming elections. Women’s representation in politics is critical for an effective and well-functioning democracy, and ensures that those in elected leadership are more representative of the people they serve. The discussion of a gender quota in the Lebanese Parliament is in line with Lebanon’s commitment to the implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325, as articulated in the 2019-2022 National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security. "The women of Lebanon represent a pool of leadership and legitimacy. The United Nations welcomes efforts to expand special measures for women, such as quotas, and to support Lebanese women’s participation in political life," she said. The Special Coordinator reiterated the importance of holding elections on time.

Bassil Decries 'Legislative Massacre' against Electoral Law
Naharnet/October 19/2021
Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil on Tuesday lamented what he called “a legislative massacre against the electoral law,” after parliament voted to cancel six parliamentary seats for expats stipulated by the 2018 electoral law. “We will file an appeal over the issue of expat voting because the constitutional principle is clear and it has been violated. This is a constitutional, political and national violation,” Bassil said after a parliamentary session. “It is shameful to say that expats only know Lebanon through ‘kibbeh and sfiha,’ they are not a decoration as some have described them,” Bassil added, referring to two traditional Lebanese dishes.
He also decried that setting March 27 as a date for the elections is “manipulation” amid expected bad weather and the Christian fasting season.
Bassil also voiced surprise that parliament ditched the electoral megacenters idea, noting that “it facilitates the electoral process.”As for the postponement of the decision on women’s quota, the FPM chief said “our proposal which includes granting women the ability to be represented by at least one seat in every electoral list could have been adopted.”

Geagea: Nasrallah's Words Can Only Convince a Few Christians
Naharnet/October 19/2021
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has snapped back at Hizullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s remarks in a brief interview with MTV.
“Geagea, who wasn’t watching Nasrallah’s speech, smiled repeatedly when told about its content,” MTV said. Asked about Nasrallah’s accusation that the LF had supported the Daesh and al-Nusra jihadist groups, Geagea said: “If someone is worse than Hizbullah it will be Daesh.”
As for the remarks that Nasrallah addressed to Lebanon’s Christians, Geagea said that only “a known minority will be convinced by these remarks.” “But the majority of Christians, from various affiliations, have become in a position of extreme rivalry with Hizbullah and they will not be affected,” the LF leader added. Geagea also said that he is not worried over the possibility of referring the file of Thursday’s deadly clashes to the judiciary. “Let them do that. We will confront them with dozens of videos, pictures and comments,” Geagea added. “We will also filed lawsuits,” he said. Told that this time he seems to be confronting Hizbullah alone, without former allies like Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblat, Geagea hoped that Kataeb Party chief Sami Gemayel will be with him in this confrontation as well as in the upcoming elections, “alongside all of the sovereign forces.”

Sami Gemayel Calls for 'Withdrawing Parliamentary Legitimacy' from Hizbullah in Elections
Naharnet/October 19/2021
Kataeb Party chief Sami Gemayel has called on the Lebanese people to “withdraw legitimacy from Hizbullah’s actions” through voting for change in the upcoming parliamentary elections. “We’re not speaking of eliminating Hizbullah. We are saying that the battle will withdraw the legitimate cover it had gained from institutions,” Gemayel added, in an interview with Annahar newspaper published Tuesday. Commenting on the deadly Tayyouneh incidents, Gemayel said “the entire Lebanese people were a victim of what happened.” “Together with our young men, we are present in this area (Ain al-Remmaneh), and it is normal to be alongside our people. We are not doing something extraordinary; we are naturally present and we belong to the area’s fabric when it faces danger. Residents defend themselves and certainly there will be Kataeb members defending themselves among the residents,” Gemayel added. He, however, noted that Kataeb “will not pour oil on fire.”“We believe that that cannot lead to a result. We have not abandoned the area and I’m the only one who visited it on the day of the troubles,” Gemayel added. As for the political and security situations in the country, the Kataeb leader said there is “an attempt to undermine the judiciary and eliminate its role and credibility.”He added: “In my opinion, the coming period will witness an attempt to target the Lebanese Army and disintegrate it, seeing as it is the last bulwark for Lebanon’s unity and the state’s image.”

Judiciary to Hold Meetings on Port Case as Eyes Turn to Tayyouneh Investigations
Naharnet/October 19/2021
The Higher Judicial Council will hold a series of consultative meetings this week, including one on Thursday with Beirut port blast investigator Judge Tarek Bitar, media reports said Tuesday. The Council will discuss with Bitar “the reservations raised over the course of his investigations according to the format reached in PM Najib Miqati’s meeting in the weekend with the heads of the judicial authority,” the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper said. The file of military and security investigations into the deadly Tayyouneh clashes will meanwhile be referred with the detainees to a court in the next two days, the daily added. “Preliminary reports say that these investigations have reached documented results that refute the Shiite duo’s account of events about the protesters facing an ambush and sniper gunshots,” Nidaa al-Watan said. “This is what was confirmed by the Defense Minister himself, when he said that what happened on Thursday was not an ambush but rather an unfortunate incident,” the daily added. It also noted that Defense Minister Maurice Slim had told LBCI TV that “the gunfire might have happened from the street and not from rooftops.”

4 Dead, 7 Hurt in Armed Clash in Akkar Town
Naharnet/October 19/2021
Armed clashes have been ongoing since morning in the Akkar town of Wadi al-Jamous, state-run National News Agency reported. It said the fighting between members of the al-Tartousi and al-Sayyed families has left four people dead and seven others wounded, some critically.
Members of the two families are still torching the houses and vehicles of each other, NNA added. The army was meanwhile continuing its deployment in the town and separating between the two families in a bid to restore calm. MP Walid al-Baarini voiced sorrow over the victims, calling for an end to the bloodshed and for security forces to exert efforts to contain the situation. Baarini had visited the two families overnight in a bid to pacify the situation.

Jumblatt after meeting with Mikati: When the time is right, we must reconsider the defense strategy
NNA/October 19/2021
Head of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt said in a statement after his meeting with Prime Minister Najib Mikati: "We cannot demand the isolation of a large segment of the Lebanese population. This requires care and vigilance. When the time is right, we must reconsider the [country’s] defense strategy. Isolation will lead nowhere."

Army Chief receives French ambassador, Turkish military attaché
NNA/October 19/2021
Armed Forces Commander, General Joseph Aoun, welcomed the French Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo, accompanied by the French military attaché, Colonel Gregory Medina. Talks touched on relations between the Lebanese and French armies.The Turkish military attaché in Lebanon, Colonel Hussein Bazaran, also visited the Army commander and discussed with him bilateral ties.

Mikati meets IMF Executive Director: Government has started planning financial and economic recovery, including basic reforms
NNA /October 19/2021
Prime Minister Najib Mikati received this afternoon at the Grand Serail the Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund and the representative of the Arab Group in it, Mahmoud Mohieldin.
During the meeting, Mikati stressed that "Lebanon relies a lot on approving a cooperation plan with the International Monetary Fund to help it overcome the financial and economic crises which has reached unprecedented levels."
He said: "In parallel, the government has started preparing a plan for financial and economic recovery, which includes basic reforms in the economic and financial structure and stopping the financial bleeding caused by the electricity sector in particular, and the implementation of reform decrees and laws approved by the House of Representatives.”"The reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund are a Lebanese need and necessity before they are an external demand,” he stressed.

Geagea meets National Liberal Party delegation
NNA/October 19/2021
Lebanese Forces; leader Samir Geagea welcomed at his Maarab residence on Tuesday, Head of the National Liberal Party Dory Chamoun, and an accompanying delegation. "The visit aims to confirm our full solidarity with the all of the Lebanese resistance components, including the Lebanese Forces. We consider ourselves concerned with anything that tampers with civil peace, especially in light of what happened recently in Tayouneh," Chamoun told reporters following the meeting.

Lebanon confirms March elections amid race to secure IMF rescue
France 24/Reuters/October 19/10/2021
Lebanon's parliament voted on Tuesday to hold legislative elections on March 27, parliamentary sources said, giving Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government only a few months to try to secure an IMF recovery plan amid a deepening economic meltdown.Lebanon's financial crisis, labelled by the World Bank as one of the deepest depressions of modern history, had been compounded by political deadlock for over a year before Mikati put together a cabinet alongside President Michel Aoun. The currency has lost 90% of its value and three quarters of the population have been propelled into poverty. Shortages of basic goods such as fuel and medicines have made daily life a struggle. Mikati, whose cabinet is focused on reviving talks with the International Monetary Fund, had vowed to make sure elections are held with no delay and Western governments urged the same. But a row over the probe into last year's Beirut port blast that killed over 200 people and destroyed large swathes of the capital is threatening to veer his cabinet off course. Some ministers, aligned with politicians that lead investigator Judge Tarek Bitar is seeking to question over the explosion, last week demanded that the judge be removed from the probe.
Mikati has since said the cabinet will not convene another meeting until an agreement is reached on how to deal with the matter.
Worst street violence in decade
On Thursday, Beirut witnessed the worst street violence in over a decade with seven people killed in gunfire when protesters from the Hezbollah and Amal Shi'ite movements made their way to demonstrate against Judge Bitar.The bloodshed, which stirred memories of the 1975-1990 civil war, added to fears for the stability of a country that is awash with weapons. The early election date - elections were originally expected to be held in May - was chosen in order not to clash with the holy Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. Once a new parliament is elected, the Mikati cabinet will only act in a caretaker role until a new prime minister is given a vote of confidence and tasked with forming a new government.

Beset by political setbacks, Hezbollah finds solace in military clout
The Arab Weekly/October 19/2021
Nasrallah’s latest statements come as sectarian tensions in Lebanon are testing Hezbollah’s alliance with Aoun.
BEIRUT--Head of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah said Monday that his Iran-backed movement has 100,000 “trained” and “armed” fighters at its disposal. Nasrallah’s latest statements came as worsening sectarian tensions in Lebanon are testing Hezbollah’s alliance with Christian President Michel Aoun, who may lose ground to his political rivals as they step up opposition to the Iran-backed group’s influence. During a televised speech, Nasrallah accused the Lebanese Forces, a Christian party, of being behind the killing of seven members of his movement and Shia ally Amal at a rally on Thursday and warned it against sparking any “civil war.”“I am for the first time forced to announce this number,” Nasrallah said, explaining that he revealed how many Lebanese fighters are in his ranks “to prevent war, not threaten a civil war.”Nasrallah spoke as tensions simmer in Lebanon over the fate of the judge leading a probe into a port explosion last year that killed more than 210 people, wounded thousands and wrecked swathes of Beirut. Violence broke out in the heart of Beirut Thursday after supporters of Hezbollah and Amal rallied to call for judge Tarek Bitar to step down. Hezbollah and Amal have accused Lebanese Forces snipers of starting the fight. But Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has denied this and said on Friday that residents of the Christian neighbourhood of Ain al-Remmaneh had “defended” themselves against “Hezbollah militiamen who tried to enter their homes.”The sound of gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades left school children cowering under desks and adults hiding inside their homes for hours, for many of the latter reviving memories of street battles during the 1975-1990 civil war. Nasrallah called for an investigation to determine who was responsible for the bloodshed, “because we don’t leave our brother’s blood on the ground” without doing anything about it.
An alliance that could crumble
Analysts believe divisions that have deepened since an outbreak of violence in Beirut last week may play to the political advantage of Aoun’s long-time adversary, Geagea. The alliance between Hezbollah and Aoun has been a defining feature of Lebanese politics since 2006: Hezbollah helped Aoun become president in 2016, while Aoun has provided important Christian backing for the armed status of the group, which is more powerful than the Lebanese army. But strains have been growing, specifically over Hezbollah’s opposition to the investigation into who was to blame for last year’s catastrophic explosion at the Beirut port, which, while killing many Muslims, did most of its damage in Christian parts of the city. The dilemma facing Aoun sharpened last week when tensions over the investigation ignited Beirut’s deadliest street violence in years, reviving memories of the 1975-90 civil war.
“Today, you have Christians rejecting these scenes of getting back to civil war memories and at the same time not happy with the way Shia are expressing their opposition to the Judge Bitar process,” said a source familiar with thinking in the Free Patriotic Movement, the party founded by Aoun. The FPM and Hezbollah had not decided to part ways, but the course of events was separating them, the source said. FPM officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In his first speech since the violence, Nasrallah said the Lebanese Forces saw itself as the protector of Christian blood but Hezbollah was no enemy of Christians. Nasrallah said the LF had opposed his party’s understanding with the FPM when it was concluded in 2006 because it did not want Christians and Muslims “to open up to each other.” There was no immediate LF response to Nasrallah’s remarks.
Geagea gaining popularity
Hezbollah has accused Bitar of bias as he has sought to question some of its allies on suspicion of negligence that led one of the largest non-nuclear explosions ever. Nasrallah had criticised what he called “bias” in the port blast probe, and “political targeting … of our allies and friends.”
“We are very… very keen to know the truth behind this explosion,” he said. Geagea, who stands by Bitar, has said Thursday’s trouble was begun by Hezbollah and Amal supporters in Ain al-Remmaneh. “It wasn’t the Lebanese Forces that defended the area … all the people of Ain al-Remmaneh did that,” Geagea said in an interview late on Friday. The view that Ain al-Remmaneh was attacked was widely shared among Christians, said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Centre. “There is some kind of agreement among Christians on supporting the port blast investigation and the right to self defence, and that Hezbollah and Amal attacked the area before they were attacked themselves,” he said.“Geagea so far seems to have gained some popularity among Christians.” Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of Annahar newspaper, said the FPM had made a mistake by accusing Geagea of the violence and he enjoyed wide sympathy among Christians. “I see the FPM as the biggest loser,” he said. The army initially said gunfire had targeted protesters but later stated there had been an altercation and exchange of fire while protesters were on their way to the demonstration.
A soldier suspected of firing towards protesters is under investigation.
The FPM is the biggest Christian party. In Lebanon’s last parliamentary election in 2018, the FPM, Hezbollah and other parties that support the group’s possession of weapons secured a majority. Hezbollah’s opponents hope this can be overturned in 2022, with Christian seats seen as the main battleground.
In addition to the port blast, Aoun’s presidency has been overshadowed by a massive financial meltdown that has plunged more than three quarters of the population into poverty. Gebran Bassil, FPM head and Aoun’s son-in-law, revisited the arguments for the alliance with Hezbollah in a speech on Saturday, including its fight against jihadists at the Syrian border. He appeared to side with Hezbollah in implying that the Lebanese Forces were to blame for the violence and echoed some of Hezbollah’s criticism of the port probe.But Bassil said it was still not clear that Bitar himself was politicised and the investigation should continue. “We will confront those who try to obstruct the file,” he said.

Hezbollah 100,000 fighters is a symbolic lie - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/October 19/2021
Nasrallah’s exaggeration was meant to pre-empt talk of a “civil war” after Hezbollah members claimed they were shot at during a recent protest.
Hezbollah bragged this week that it has 100,000 fighters. The figure is a major exaggeration, but it is symbolic of how Hezbollah no longer feels the need to even pretend to be a small “resistance” movement, but brags that it has more forces than the Lebanese army and has in effect made Lebanon a colony within the greater Hezbollah empire. Expert on Lebanon Hanin Ghaddar, who is at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had given the 100,000 figure. She noted on Twitter that it was an exaggeration, “even if you include the reservists. In addition, quantity is one thing, but quality of their fighters has been shaken by long wars, budget shifts and emergency recruiting during Syria [conflict]...”Nasrallah’s exaggeration was meant to preempt talk of a “civil war” after Hezbollah members claimed they were shot at during a recent protest in which the terrorist group was trying to topple a judge investigating a massive explosion in Beirut that was likely caused by Hezbollah’s ammonium nitrate. It has pointed fingers at Christian leader Samir Geagea and his Lebanese Forces, telling them not to miscalculate.
The context here is important. Back in the 1970s, a Lebanese civil war broke out. It pitted Christian militias against Muslim and Druze ones, as well as Palestinian groups. At the time, there was no Hezbollah, but there were Shi’ite militias and the Amal movement. The Shi’ites were a marginalized small minority group, however. Christians and Sunni Muslims dominated Lebanon. After Israel’s invasion in 1982 and the Palestinian terror groups leaving Lebanon, the country’s civil war sputtered on. The Syrians had also invaded the country in the 1970s; an accord brokered by Saudi Arabia in 1989 eventually helped end the war. The result was that the official power of Christians was slightly reduced, a power cemented through demographics and the parliament election system that guaranteed Christians power in the presidency. A weakened presidency led to a stronger Sunni Muslim prime minister. The Shi’ites got the position of parliament speaker. Hezbollah doesn’t derive its power, however, from the superannuated speaker of parliament Nabih Berri, who has held his position since 1992. Instead it has its power due because after the Sunni, Christian and Druze militias put down their weapons in the wake of the 1989 agreement, Hezbollah kept its weapons, claiming to be “resisting Israel.”
WHEN ISRAEL left Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah kept its vastly expanded arsenal, claiming that because the Jewish state held a few dunams on a mountain at the border, it needed to get this small area back. What really happened is that Hezbollah plotted its path to control Lebanon. It assassinated the former Sunni prime minister, Rafic Hariri, in 2005. When protests caused Syria to leave the country in the wake of the murder, Hezbollah plotted to attack Israel with direct support from Iran and its henchman Qasem Soleimani. Soleimani, Nasrallah and Imad Mughniyeh plotted and a war broke out in 2006. When that was over, Hezbollah used the destruction it wrought to increase power over construction, housing and its own phone and telecommunications network. When the parliament tried to take away the telecommunications network, Hezbollah invaded areas in Beirut in 2008 and showed off its new muscles.
Soon, it was keeping a new president from being appointed, forcing Christians to make a choice: Lose their remaining power, or ally with the Islamist group. Michael Aoun chose to work with Hezbollah and got the presidency. Other Christians like Samir Geagea did not agree and neither did Sunnis like Saad Hariri. Hezbollah systematically assassinated rivals, and intellectuals like Lokman Slim. It also sent fighters to Syria during the civil war and expanded its arsenal from 13,000 rockets to 150,000 rockets, missiles and drones. It also sent forces to the Golan to prepare for expanding the war against Israel.
All this is a long way of saying that Hezbollah’s real power is now through strangling parliament and the presidency and running Lebanon’s foreign and military policy. Now it even imports gas.
But it doesn’t have 100,000 fighters. That is because the overall Shi’ite community Hezbollah draws on for support is divided, with many backing Hezbollah ally Amal. To have 100,000 fighters you would need several million Shi’ite Hezbollah backers. Where are those people? Where are the trained fighters? How would you feed all those men? The fact is that even though Hezbollah is a powerful terror army, has precision guided weapons, drones, bunkers and its own communications network – and runs drugs all over the world, stockpiles ammonium nitrate, destroys cities, bankrupts Lebanon and robs it of its future – its 100,000 figure is just in Nasrallah’s imagination.

Lebanon's latest crisis unlikely to escalate, experts say
Elias Sakr/The National/October 19/2021
Armed clashes killed seven people amid rising tension over Beirut blast probe and political turmoil
One of Lebanon’s worst episodes of violence since the end of the civil war is unlikely to topple the government or even stoke wide-scale civil unrest, analysts have told The National. Seven people were killed in fighting fuelled by rising tension over the Beirut blast probe. The Iran-backed Hezbollah has accused its political rival, the Christian Lebanese Forces (LF) party, of firing at “peaceful demonstrators” who took to the streets last week to demand the dismissal of the judge leading the investigation into the port explosion. The LF denies the accusations, arguing that fighting broke out between Hezbollah loyalists and residents after protesters stormed the area that separated Muslim and Christian neighbourhoods during Lebanon’s 15-year civil war. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a warning on Monday that the country was facing a “dangerous and critical new stage” while boasting that his party commanded a strong force of 100,000 fighters. “Don't miscalculate. Sit quietly and get your act together,” Nasrallah said in a fiery speech, addressing LF chief Samir Geagea. But Mr Nasrallah said Hezbollah would not be lured into a domestic conflict. His message, analysts say, is multifaceted. “Hezbollah is saying 'we don’t want to be involved in a domestic conflict but we’re strong and ready',” Ibrahim Bayram, an expert in the party’s affairs, told The National. That said, Hezbollah and its Shiite ally, the Amal movement led by parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, are unlikely to concede when it comes to replacing Judge Tarek Bitar, Mr Bayram said. Nasrallah has accused Mr Bitar and the US of politicising the probe after the judge issued arrest warrants for former public works minister Youssef Finanous, a Hezbollah ally, and ex-finance minister Ali Hassan Khalil, a member of Mr Berri’s parliamentary bloc and the target of US sanctions. Both Mr Hassan Khalil and Mr Finanous, along with ex-prime minister Hassan Diab and two former ministers, have snubbed Mr Bitar’s summons, arguing he had no constitutional authority to prosecute them.
Historic economic crisis
All five officials have been charged with criminal negligence in connection with the blast that killed more than 214 people and forced Mr Diab’s resignation, leaving the country without a functioning government for more than a year. The political vacuum accelerated Lebanon's financial meltdown, which the World Bank says ranks in the top three economic crises since the 1850s. Mr Bayram said the latest tension over the probe was unlikely to topple the government of prime minister Najib Mikati given the country’s economic and financial woes. “The risk of miscalculation, however, is real against the backdrop of tensions between Tehran and the US over Iran’s nuclear programme," he said. Mr Mikati has yet to schedule a Cabinet meeting. Ministers affiliated with Hezbollah and Amal have threatened to boycott coming sessions if the Cabinet fails to block Mr Bitar from prosecuting senior officials. Hezbollah and its allies say political officials should be tried before a special body that comprises senior judges and politicians. Mr Bayram said the Cabinet was unlikely to meet before a compromise deal was reached. As of Tuesday morning, Mr Mikati had yet to decide on the timing of the Cabinet’s coming session, a source close to the prime minister told The National. Such a meeting would take place when political tension subsides, the source said.
Reforms stall
Though tension is likely to be wholly contained in the near future, the renewed political bickering deals a major blow for the government’s credibility and its commitment to enacting reforms, Mr Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Centre said. The international community has been pressuring the government into enacting reforms in exchange for financial aid and demanding open elections in the spring, as well as an independent investigation in the port blast. “The spotlight is now back on Hezbollah and its arsenal of weapons rather than the government’s reform programme and the investigation into the Beirut blast,” Mr Hage Ali said. The confrontation was no longer between the ruling class and opposition groups but rather between Hezbollah and the LF, he said. “It remains to be seen whether the LF gains from this confrontation by polarising Christian voters ahead of the upcoming elections,” he said . Mr Bayram said continuing tension between the LF and Hezbollah was likely to weigh on President Michel Aoun, Hezbollah’s Christian ally. Mr Aoun’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil, the leader of largest Christian parliamentary bloc and a staunch Hezbollah ally, has accused his Mr Geagea of stoking civil strife.

IMF in talks with Lebanon, calls to address financial losses
Reuters/October 19/2021
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Lebanese authorities have started technical discussions to pull the country out of its crisis, a senior IMF official said, stressing the need to address the losses faced by the financial sector.

U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Comments on Women's Parliament Quota
Naharnet/October 19/2021
The U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka said Tuesday that she encourages “the discussion in Parliament of a gender quota in the upcoming elections.”“Women’s representation in politics is critical for an effective and well-functioning democracy, and ensures that those in elected leadership are more representative of the people they serve. The discussion of a gender quota in the Lebanese Parliament is in line with Lebanon’s commitment to the implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325, as articulated in the 2019-2022 National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security,” she said in a statement. “The women of Lebanon represent a pool of leadership and legitimacy. The United Nations welcomes efforts to expand special measures for women, such as quotas, and to support Lebanese women’s participation in political life,” she added. The Special Coordinator also reiterated the importance of holding the elections on time. Parliament had earlier in the day approved several amendments to the electoral law as it referred a draft law on a women’s quota to the parliamentary committee for further deliberations.

Lebanon Ruling Class United against Probe Seen as Survival Threat
Agence France Presse/October 19/2021
They may often squabble but Lebanon's political parties seem united in rejecting an investigation into Beirut's massive port explosion that they fear could threaten their survival, analysts say. The explosion of a huge stockpile of poorly stored fertilizer on the dockside on August 4, 2020 killed more than 210 people, wounded thousands and ravaged half the capital. In the aftermath of mass protests in late 2019 demanding the ouster of the traditional ruling class, many said the disaster was just the latest example of official incompetence and corruption. But months into a domestic investigation, no one has been held accountable. Politicians have repeatedly obstructed the work of Judge Tarek Bitar by refusing to show up for questioning, filing legal complaints against him or calling for his dismissal, which last week sparked deadly violence in a Beirut suburb.
Analyst Lina Khatib said hopes were fading of holding those responsible for the port blast accountable. "The ruling class in Lebanon is in agreement about wanting the port probe to be abandoned and they will use all available means to derail it," said Khatib, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank. The country's powerful Hizbullah has spearheaded a campaign to remove Bitar, accusing him of political bias. The debate over his future, which comes after the previous investigator was removed in February, has already triggered the postponement of one cabinet meeting despite the urgency of addressing Lebanon's acute economic crisis.
'Battle for the rule of law'
Nadim Houry, executive director at the Arab Reform Initiative, said that the whole ruling class felt under threat in what he described as "an essential battle in Lebanon for rule of law." "A section of society has decided that they want to go all the way and ask for truth," but they face "a political class that is willing to use threats, use violence, use even launching into another civil war to prevent that quest for truth from leading to a result," he said. It emerged after the port blast that officials had known that hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate had for years been left to linger in a warehouse near residential neighborhoods. Families of the victims see in Bitar the only hope for justice in a country where impunity has long been the norm. After the 1975 to 1990 civil war, Lebanon issued a broad amnesty that benefited the country's warlords, allowing many of them to become political leaders. "Regardless of what Bitar finds, it's the idea itself that any of them can somehow be held accountable that they are resisting," Houry said. Any success in the blast probe would set a precedent and unravel a "impunity regime" under which each party agrees not to pursue the other for its crimes, as long as it is not targeted itself. Tensions came to a boil last week after a rally against Bitar organized by Hizbullah and its ally Amal descended into violence that killed several of their supporters.
'Price too high'
The sound of gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades trapped residents indoors for hours, reviving memories of the civil war. Hizbullah accused snipers of the rival Lebanese Forces party of causing the bloodshed, but the latter has denied this. The army, meanwhile, is investigating a video circulated on social media that appears to show a soldier shooting at protesters. "Hizbullah is increasingly acting as the praetorian guard of the regime that has come into place since the 1990s," Houry said. The Iran-backed movement, the only one not to have disarmed after the civil war, is at least partly blacklisted by most Western governments but holds seats in parliament.
While political parties have publicly supported an investigation, analysts say they ultimately wish to protect their own interests. "Lebanon's ruling class may be political opponents but they are united in profiteering from the system... and they therefore oppose any steps to reform it or to instill accountability within it," Khatib said. A spokesman for the families of blast victims quit on Saturday, after many feared he had been intimidated into toeing the Hizbullah line and calling for Bitar to step down. Ibrahim Hoteit, who lost his brother in the explosion, lives in a neighborhood where Hizbullah and Amal have clout. The following day, many refrained from taking part in a protest to mark the second anniversary of the now-defunct 2019 protest movement, fearing further violence. "Ultimately, the ruling class want to push the Lebanese to conclude that the price of accountability is too high," Khatib said.

Parallels/Ronnie Chatah dwells on comparisons of childhood memories of the civil war to last week’s tragedy in Tayyouneh, and the violence that persists.
Ronnie Chatah/October 19/2021
When I think back to my earliest memories of this country, three moments come to mind.
All in 1985.
The first, on a visit to relatives who stayed throughout the civil war, and the culmination of an exhausting trip from the States that included multiple European connections to Damascus, followed by a 10-hour long taxi journey towards the Syrian coast into northern Lebanon.
Final destination: Tripoli. An occupied city (in addition to half the country at that time) under Assad’s rule, with adorning posters of Hafez and Syrian flags on both sides of the border. And within a day or so of arriving, a massive car bomb struck a Syrian army checkpoint near the intersection of Munla and Azme Streets, a block away from my maternal grandparents’ apartment where we were staying. The rumble and blast too many of us are familiar with. Black fumes that tentatively hide the carnage on streets and adjacent sidewalks, littered with shards of blood-stained glass alongside remains of innocent passersby. And the panic-driven screams of searching for loved ones among the victims. We were certain my grandmother was dead. And when she returned home some 30 minutes later with groceries in hand, my mother and I held her the closest I have felt. I did not feel that pure love and pain combined in one embrace until I held them both, once more, following another car bombing almost 30 years later that took my father.
The second memory is waking up in the same apartment, drenched in sweat, from the summer heat all of us suffer through annually. Without A/C, several hours (at most) of government electricity and the occasional generosity of a longer generator-stretch. By my bedside was a small and round exposed hole. And above, on a tilting shelf – I am not making this up – remains of a mortar shell that had torn through the living room a few years earlier, used as a bookend for my mother’s childhood French-language novels.
None of which I understood. I could see neighboring apartments across the street, themselves scarred by armed fighters waging their urban trench warfare, images shared across Lebanon, best pronounced by Beirut’s former Green Line and the start of civil war in Ain El Remaneh.
I looked out, through the pierced hole, and recalled my grandmother describing the battles that damaged the building’s façade. I could see neighboring apartments across the street, themselves scarred by armed fighters waging their urban trench warfare, images shared across Lebanon, best pronounced by Beirut’s former Green Line and the start of civil war in Ain El Remaneh. Last week’s October 14 battle brought bullets back to the old dividing line. And in Tripoli, in 1985, I stared out of one of those thousands of holes that still decorate our homes. Before getting startled (and, again, none of this is made up) by a flying cockroach determined to make its way inside.
Needless to say, that hole was plugged thereafter.
The third…and bear with me here…is Samir Geagea.
On the evening news. A neon light bulb flickering and buzzing in the living room. A few channels were available thanks to a dented antenna (there was no cable or satellite entertainment then). I turned the television set’s manual dial according to family demands. And silence was immediately requested the moment it landed on LBC.
Mind you, this was civil war Lebanon. Tripoli tuned in to LBC’s nightly news to hear what ‘the other side’ has to say. And Geagea’s name was synonymous with fear.
In all my annual visits to Lebanon in the 1980s we never went south from Tripoli. The entire country was partitioned, bringing nearby Chekka closer to Dora than Shar3 Munla. And forcing Tripoli towards Damascus instead of Beirut.
In all my annual visits to Lebanon in the 1980s we never went south from Tripoli. The entire country was partitioned, bringing nearby Chekka closer to Dora than Shar3 Munla. And forcing Tripoli towards Damascus instead of Beirut. The canton-like terrain that Geagea governed was one we dared not enter. Our last name and confession were not friendly to checkpoints monitoring their direction.
And when Geagea spoke on the news, we listened. Like my mother’s French literature, I had no idea what he was saying. I often laughed at his last name, thinking it sounded somewhat funny. But from the careful attention placed on every word he uttered, I recognized from then that this man carried wartime weight. I grew up with Geagea’s tumultuous career in the background. A Taef-agreeing militiaman turned politician, demanding the removal of his Forces’ violent and sectarian civil war-era cross and knife emblem. A defiant anti-Syrian politician turned 11-year ‘political’ prisoner; his arrest followed by the banning of his post-war party. And the post-2005 reemergence from solitary confinement of a self-proclaimed redeemed religious man, and the rapid return of his rather tempered Forces to the post-Syria political arena.
His public apology for civil war crimes. His insistence on no return to militia training or autonomous arms. His championing of sovereignty and rebuilding the state. A holdout in the cause and principles of March 14, 2005…until his support for Michel Aoun solidified the General’s return to Baabda on October 31, 2016. And recognition, even among his steadfast opponents, that his party’s selection of Cabinet ministers included the most competent this country has had (at least in recent memory).
Any country under these continuous circumstances can easily tear itself apart. For a simple reason we cannot ignore…militia begets militia.
And unfortunately, little of that intent matters today. The instability and chaos that consumes us deny any attempt at genuine reform. Weapons are too easy to access, and armed partisans carry a natural preference to clashes over politics. Assassinations regularly targeted officials and killed civilians, along with the return of snipers on rooftops terrifying anyone below. The bullets that sprayed last week in neighborhoods long denied their peace pierced through windows, killing a mother protecting her children while preparing their meal.
The ruinous reminders of civil war. The multitude of warlords turned politicians turned opponents and supporters of our proxy-led status quo remain on our news channels and news feeds…not for their futile attempts at decent governance but for fear-mongering, divisive rhetoric and reactionary protection.
Car bombings are irregular for the moment, and bullets do not fly over us every day. There are no sub-state checkpoints curtailing our collective movement. Samir Geagea is not a militia leader and the Lebanese Forces are not a militia. The Lebanese state wobbles but functions, and the Lebanese army remains intact. But the parallels to the strife that robbed Lebanon of its chances are plenty. And any country under these continuous circumstances can easily tear itself apart. For a simple reason we cannot ignore…militia begets militia. And when Hezbollah threatens through violence, we inch closer to civil war.
Ronnie Chatah hosts The Beirut Banyan podcast, a series of storytelling episodes and long-form conversations that reflect on all that is modern Lebanese history. He also leads the WalkBeirut tour, a four-hour narration of Beirut’s rich and troubled past. He is on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter @thebeirutbanyan.
The opinions expressed are those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOW.

Vive la Résistance
Jean-Marie Kassab/Octobre 19/2021
En cherchant de toutes ses forces à diaboliser Geagea, Nasrallah s'est diabolisé lui même. Il a prétendu rassurer les chrétiens par son discours: Rassure t-on quelqu'un en étalant sa force. Hassan, as tu rassuré les chretiens en leur déclarant que tu as cent mille combattants prêts à se déchainer sur eux? Pire encore , les sunnites que tu as omis de mentioner , dorment-ils mieux maintenant ?
Sais tu que si tu avais quelques amis, quelques alliés à part les collaborateurs du Tayyar, tu n'en as plus aucun.
Tu as une fois de plus dévoilé ton jeu et je te remercie d'avoir groupé autour de la Résistance les derniers Libanais récalcitrants bien que bien intentionnés qui te faisaient bénéficier du doute.
Tu es dans ton droit d'être nerveux : ceux qui se taisaient pour mille raisons ont décidé de rendre les coups. Il ne fallait pas les pousser jusqu'au bout et les mettre dos au mur. Il fallait mieux lire leur histoire. Il fallait mieux consulter les amis de Arafat et d'Abou Nidal et les copains de promotion de Hafez Assad. Ils t'auraient tout expliqué, dans le détail.
Hassan Nasrallah, et Nabih Berry, votre capacité de nuisance est toujours là. On le sait.Elle est loin d'être épuisée grâce au lavage de cerveau effectué sur votre communauté, cette jeunesse que vous utilisez comme chair à canon pour le compte de Teheran , ainsi pour que vos comptes bancaires. Sauf que tout a changé dorénavent. Désomais vous dormirez moins bien.
A mes amis de la Résistance je dis : les jours qui viennent seront faits de sueur mais aussi de sang s'il le faut, mais au moins le chemin sera clair tout tortueux qu' il soit. Unissez vous. Unissez vous. Unissez vous
Vive la Résistance
Vive le Liban.

Celui qui a pris le marteau au Parlement aujourd’hui est Nabih Berri, chef des mendiants armés qui ont pris d’assaut vos rues.
Jean-Marie Kassab/Octobre 19/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/103484/%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%83%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b0%d9%8a-%d8%ad%d9%85%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b7%d8%b1%d9%82%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%84%d8%b3-%d8%a7/
A celles et ceux qui suivirent la promulgation de lois ce matin. Je vous rappele que ce parlement est présidé par Nabih Berry le patron des gueux armés qui ont envahi vos rues. Oui oui , le même qui tenait le marteau ce matin.De plus ce parlement est majoritairement fait d'agents Iraniens et collabos.
Ce même parlement a nommé Mikati et octroyé sa confiance au gouvernement qui organisera ces éléctions auxquelles vous tenez tellement. Résultats garantis...
Un jour je t'aime , un jour je ne t'aime pas.
Une révolution à double vitesse qui n'aboutira nulle part.
Vive la Résistance.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 19-20/2021
Iran Says U.S. Should Lift Sanctions to Prove it Wants Talks
Associated Pres/October 19/2021
Iran's president has said the United States should lift the sanctions on his country to prove it is serious about restarting stalled nuclear talks in Vienna. In an interview with state TV, Ebrahim Raisi said Iran is after "goal-oriented" talks with the West and said Iran "never left" the negotiation table.
"Lifting sanctions is an indication of seriousness of the other party," he said. Talks between Iran and European signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal, alongside Russia and China, have been stalled since June. Raisi's administration, which took office in August, has not fixed a date for resuming talks. Iran has been resisting calls for a quick resumption of the talks in Vienna. Instead, Iran wants to meet separately with the other parties to the deal in Brussels before returning to the table in Vienna. As Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with the chief of the UN's atomic watchdog in Washington on Monday, the State Department said the Biden administration did not believe a preliminary meeting in Brussels was needed. Blinken and others have warned that the window for diplomacy is closing. "To be clear, we do not think it is necessary," department spokesman Ned Price told reporters when asked about a meeting in Brussels. "We have been very clear that the destination we seek is Vienna not an intermediate step in Brussels." Raisi, however, said Iran "is serious in this issue, we should see seriousness in the other party," too. The 2015 nuclear deal saw Tehran drastically limit its enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. Iran has insisted its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes. In 2018, then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord, raising tensions across the wider Middle East. With the talks in Vienna now stalled, Iran has breached limits on its uranium enrichment set by the accord. It is now enriching small amounts of uranium at its closest-ever levels to weapons-grade purity and its stockpile continues to grow.

Senior Israeli Official: Israel disappointed with Biden administration's Iran policy
Arutz Sheva Staff/October 19/2021
'US behavior is creating a huge headache for us.' Top official says Israel frustrated with White House's handling of Iran nuclear program. Israel is preparing to take unilateral steps to prevent Iran from continuing its enrichment of uranium, according to a source cited in a report by Israel Hayom. Tuesday morning’s report cited senior Israeli officials who said that the US under the Biden administration has done little to bar Iran from rapidly ratcheting up its uranium enrichment efforts. “Already Iran is enriching uranium at levels of 60%, which everyone agrees is not for civilian uses,” one senior official said. “The Americans fully acknowledge this, they understand the situation. But the situation with them is difficult. They’re stalling for time, they aren’t moving. Their behavior is creating a serious headache for us.” A second senior Israeli official cited in the report said that “the situation is indeed difficult, both in terms of what this government inherited, and also in terms of the international” lack of resolve to confront Iran. Israeli security experts, the source continued, are essentially unanimous in their opinion that Israel must not accept Iran enriching uranium at high levels. On Monday, it was reported that amid efforts by the Biden administration to bring Iran to the negotiating table for Tehran’s possible return to the 2015 nuclear deal, Israel has quietly approved a 5 billion shekel military spending plan aimed at enhancing Israel’s ability to strike at Iran’s nuclear program.

Israel Okays Palestinian Residency Claims, a First since 2009
Agence France Presse/October 19/2021
Israel granted approval on Tuesday for 4,000 Palestinians to register as residents of the West Bank, the first such move in the Israeli-occupied territory in 12 years. The newly regularized residents had already been living in the West Bank, including 1,200 people considered "undocumented" because they had not been registered with the Palestinian Population Registry and another 2,800 who had previously been identified as residents of the blockaded Gaza Strip. Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said he had approved the new registrations on "humanitarian" grounds as part of his "policy to strengthen the economy and improve the lives of Palestinians in Judea and Samaria," using the biblical terms for the southern and northern West Bank. Israel has occupied the West Bank since the Six-Day War of 1967 and exercises full administrative control across much of the territory.
The new approvals will make thousands of people newly eligible to get Palestinian Authority identification documents and change their residential address. The branch of the Israeli military responsible for civil affairs in the occupied Palestinian territories, COGAT, told AFP that Israel had not approved a new batch of Palestinian registrations in the West Bank since 2009. Israel's governing coalition, which ended right-winger Benjamin Netanyahu's 12 straight years in office in June, is committed to boosting livelihoods in the West Bank. Excluding annexed east Jerusalem, some 475,000 Israeli Jews live in settlements in the West Bank considered illegal under international law on land Palestinians claim as part of their future state. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, the former head of a settler lobby group, opposes Palestinian statehood and has ruled out formal peace talks with the Palestinian Authority during his tenure, saying he prefers to focus on economic improvements.

Tensions rise again between Turkey, West over Kavala case
The Arab Weekly/October 19/2021
ANKARA - Turkey summoned the ambassadors of ten countries, including Germany and the United States, after they called for the release of a civil society leader, a Turkish diplomatic source said Tuesday. Parisian-born philanthropist and activist Osman Kavala, 64, has been in jail without conviction since 2017 in a case that has fanned tensions with the West. The Turkish activist faces a string of charges linked to 2013 anti-government protests and a failed military putsch in 2016. Kavala denies the accusations. Rights groups and some Western governments view his detention as a symbol of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s growing intolerance of dissent. In a statement Monday, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and the US called for a “just and speedy resolution to his case”. “The continuing delays in his trial … cast a shadow over respect for democracy, the rule of law and transparency in the Turkish judiciary system,” they said. The embassies called on Turkey to follow the rulings of the Council of Europe, a human rights body it joined in 1950. The Council of Europe has warned that it would launch disciplinary proceedings against Turkey “in the event that (Kavala) is not released before” the human rights body’s next meeting between November 30-December 2. Kavala’s next court hearing is expected on November 26. The ambassadors were due to arrive at the foreign ministry in Ankara on Tuesday morning, the Turkish source told AFP. Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu hit out at the embassies’ statement on Twitter late Monday. “It is not acceptable for ambassadors to make a recommendation or suggestion to the judiciary for an ongoing case,” Soylu said. “Your recommendation and suggestion throws a shadow over your understanding of law and democracy.” Turkish Justice Minister Abdulhamit Gul late Monday said that “no ambassador had the right to make a recommendation or suggestion to our courts” on Twitter. “It is this ignorance of limits and boundaries that throws a shadow over the rule of law,” Gul added.

Strong Earthquake Strikes off Turkish Mediterranean Coast
Associated Press/October 19/2021
A strong earthquake struck off the Turkish Mediterranean coast on Tuesday, Turkey's disaster management agency said. There was no immediate report of any damage or casualties. The Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate said the quake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.0 struck some 155 kilometers (96 miles) off the resort town of Kas, in Antalya province, at 8:32 a.m.. Turkey sits on top of major fault lines and earthquakes are frequent. At least 17,000 people died in a powerful earthquake in northwest Turkey in 1999.

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 19-20/2021
Huawei's Long Game
Peter Schweizer/Gatestone Institute/October 19/2021
"It's simply not reasonable to expect that Huawei would refuse a direction from the Chinese Communist Party." — Simeon Gilding, former head of the Australian Signals Directorate's signals intelligence and offensive cyber missions.
It is essential for business leaders to understand this: there is no such thing as a private company in China.... all Chinese companies and individuals must assist with intelligence efforts if asked.
Huawei is hardly slowing down. Despite still being under telecom restrictions.... Huawei was granted hundreds of applications to purchase chips for its automotive supply business by the Biden administration. The company, according to a spokesman, aims to be a component provider for "intelligent connected vehicles."
In July, Democratic super-lobbyist Tony Podesta signed up as a "consultant" for Huawei. A Huawei company message board posting noted that the hiring was part of an "expanded U.S. influence operation."
Huawei also employs a white shoe Washington law firm, Sidley Austin, to handle its interests in the capital. This firm was also representing Meng Wanzhou in her successful battle to avoid extradition to the US. Christopher Fonzone, a partner in that law firm, was recently confirmed over Republican objections as the Biden administration's choice to be the top lawyer for the office of the Director of National Intelligence. An Obama administration veteran.... his LinkedIn profile... goes on to note, "He also has particular experience assisting clients in the management of crisis situations."
The threats of surveillance and potential cyberattacks from Huawei's equipment to the telecommunications infrastructure of other nations have long been known. It is essential for business leaders to understand this: there is no such thing as a private company in China.... all Chinese companies and individuals must assist with intelligence efforts if asked. Pictured: Huawei headquarters in Shenzhen, China.
In late September, Meng Wanzhou stepped off the Air China plane in Shenzhen to a hero's welcome. It was the triumphant return of an innocent Chinese tech executive from wrongful imprisonment by the West. The truth is far different.
Meng, a Chinese national, was on Canadian soil in 2018 when the Trump administration began extradition procedures against her as part of a fraud case against both her and her employer, Huawei, for potentially violating U.S. trade sanctions on Iran. In Canada, the imprisonment which she called "an abyss" amounted to wearing an ankle bracelet and enjoying an extended stay in the city of Vancouver, where she, Huawei's CFO, was free to explore the city by day, while living in her own home there, taking classes in painting and lessons in English.
As a Chinese company with great strategic and commercial importance to Beijing, Huawei has long been regarded with suspicion by western nations for its attempts to dominate the emergence of 5G networking. Its networking products and services compete against those of western firms that are not under the control of their governments. The threats of surveillance and potential cyberattacks from Huawei's equipment to the telecommunications infrastructure of other nations have long been known. Back in 2013, Britain's Joint Intelligence Committee explained to Parliament the risk of cyberattack:
"It would be very difficult to detect or prevent and could enable the Chinese to intercept covertly or disrupt traffic passing through Huawei-supplied networks."
U.S. concerns with Huawei are that using equipment made by a Chinese company, with such close ties to China's government, for critical infrastructure is an unacceptable security risk, but also that by slowing acceptance of Huawei's technology it will maintain American leadership in 5G technology. Given the statements of the company's colorful founder, Ren Zhengfei, it is not hard to see why the U.S. might be suspicious. "Surge forward, killing as you go, to blaze us a trail of blood," he exhorted company employees a month after his daughter's arrest in Canada, according to a transcript seen by The Wall Street Journal. The Chinese would later claim the translation of those fiery words was "overly literal."
Literally or figuratively, though, the company's actions and closeness to China's regime and military were enough for the Australians, whose government banned Huawei from the Australian telecommunications market. The issue is trust between nations in cyberspace, wrote Simeon Gilding, former head of the Australian Signals Directorate's signals intelligence and offensive cyber missions. "It's simply not reasonable to expect that Huawei would refuse a direction from the Chinese Communist Party,"
Exactly. It is essential for business leaders to understand this: there is no such thing as a private company in China. Gilding's point underscores the law in China: that all Chinese companies and individuals must assist with intelligence efforts if asked.
Two days after Weng Wanzhou's arrest in Vancouver, Beijing played hardball with Canada, arresting two Canadians in China for "espionage." One, Michael Spavor, was an entrepreneur who led tours into North Korea. The other, Michael Kovrig, was a former Canadian diplomat at its embassy in Beijing before joining a think tank called the International Crisis Group. The two men were held, often in solitary confinement and subjected to interrogations lasting eight hours with no legal counsel. In a miracle of coincidence, both men were released from prison the very same day Meng made her triumphal return to the cheers of her Huawei colleagues in Shenzhen.
Huawei is hardly slowing down. Despite still being under telecom restrictions imposed by the Trump administration, Huawei was granted hundreds of applications to purchase chips for its automotive supply business by the Biden administration. The company aims to be a component provider for "intelligent connected vehicles," according to a spokesman. The Chinese telecom giant has been playing both sides of the street in Washington for several years, hiring lobbyists and law firms to plead for its interests. Among others, former Republican House Speaker John Boehner's law firm, Squire Patton Boggs, does so. The company hired former congressmen Don Bonker, a Democrat, and Republican Cliff Stearns after their time in office. In July, Democratic super-lobbyist Tony Podesta signed up as a "consultant" for Huawei. A Huawei company message board posting noted that the hiring was part of an "expanded U.S. influence operation."
Huawei also employs a white shoe Washington law firm, Sidley Austin, to handle its interests in the capital. This firm was also representing Meng Wanzhou in her successful battle to avoid extradition to the US. Christopher Fonzone, a partner in that law firm, was recently confirmed over Republican objections as the Biden administration's choice to be the top lawyer for the office of the Director of National Intelligence. An Obama administration veteran, Fonzone had spent the Trump years advising clients on "cybersecurity and data protection, military and intelligence operations, litigation and other forms of dispute resolution, foreign trade sanctions, and Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) matters," according to his LinkedIn profile, which goes on to note, "He also has particular experience assisting clients in the management of crisis situations."
*Peter Schweizer, President of the Governmental Accountability Institute, is a Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow and author of the best-selling books Profiles in Corruption, Secret Empires and Clinton Cash, among others.
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Turkey Threatens New Military Offensive in Northern Syria
Aykan Erdemir and David Adesnik/Policy Brief-FDD/October 19/2021
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on October 11 that he has “no patience left” for attacks by Syrian Kurdish fighters targeting Turkey’s border towns and Turkish forces in northern Syria, while senior Turkish officials warned more explicitly of military action if the United States does not take steps to address Ankara’s concerns. These threats serve to put pressure on Washington ahead of Erdogan’s planned meeting with President Joe Biden later this month. Erdogan said his patience had run out after a guided missile attack killed two Turkish police officers in the Azaz region of northern Syria on October 10. Separately, five mortar shells fired from Syria landed inside Turkey, although there were no casualties. Ankara blamed the attacks on the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), a key component of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Washington’s partners in the fight against the Islamic State in northeastern Syria. The YPG grew out of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which both Washington and Ankara consider a terrorist organization. One source claims that the Afrin Liberation Forces, a Syrian Kurdish insurgent group that does not acknowledge any affiliation with the YPG or SDF, carried out the guided missile attack. Erdogan has already launched three military interventions against the Kurdish-led SDF in Syria, resulting in a growing zone of Turkish control inside the war-torn country. The third intervention, in late 2019, followed a phone call between Erdogan and President Donald Trump in which Trump left the impression that he did not oppose the attack. However, following a bipartisan backlash in Washington, Trump employed sanctions to force Ankara to accept a cease-fire.
The former president issued Executive Order 13894 in October 2019, authorizing sanctions on Turkish officials and entities responsible for destabilizing Syria. Earlier this month, Biden extended that authorization for another year, condemning, as Trump had, “the actions by the Government of Turkey to conduct a military offensive into northeast Syria, [which] undermines the campaign to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, endangers civilians, and further threatens to undermine the peace, security, and stability in the region.”
The application of such language to a NATO ally is unprecedented, reflecting the bilateral antagonism that has grown during Erdogan’s lengthy tenure. In August, the Biden administration also sanctioned Ahrar al-Sharqiya, one of Turkey’s Islamist proxies in northern Syria, marking the first U.S. designation against such groups. According to the Treasury Department, “Ahrar al-Sharqiya has committed numerous crimes against civilians, particularly Syrian Kurds, including unlawful killings, abductions, torture, and seizures of private property.”
These actions by the Biden administration stand in contrast to the administration’s marked silence regarding Erdogan’s provocations both at home and abroad since the White House’s ill-advised decision to outsource security at Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport to Ankara following the withdrawal of U.S. troops. If the administration wants to deter Erdogan from further adventurism in Syria and from endangering the country’s vulnerable minorities, the White House should make clear that it is prepared to use the authorities in Executive Order 13894. During the brief interval in 2019 during which Trump imposed sanctions, the Turkish president quickly became amenable to a cease-fire in Syria.
Biden should be equally firm in dealing with the full range of Erdogan’s provocations, from creating a permissive environment for terror finance to hosting senior Hamas officials, facilitating sanctions evasion by Iran and Venezuela, buying advanced Russian weapons, arming Islamist forces in Libya, imprisoning journalists, propagating antisemitic conspiracy theories, and more. Washington should also pressure the SDF to refrain from affiliating with or assisting any insurgent groups implicated in attacks targeting Turkey or Turkish forces, while intensifying efforts to find a modus vivendi between Ankara and the Syrian Kurds.Finally, the White House should end its tacit support for Arab states’ diplomatic rehabilitation of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. If Washington lacks the resolve to isolate Assad, Erdogan will know that lesser offenders have nothing to fear.
*Aykan Erdemir is senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where David Adesnik is research director and a senior fellow. They both contribute to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from the authors, the Turkey Program, and CEFP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aykan and David on Twitter @aykan_erdemir and @adesnik. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Touch wood and hope for a new dawn in Iraq
Nadim Shehadi/Arab News/October 19/2021
Iraqis were not exactly dancing in the streets after last week’s elections, but it looks very much as if a healthy democratic process has produced the best possible outcome — one that leaves most players slightly dissatisfied.
These were free and fair elections, the fifth since the US invasion, with all the trappings. A new law came into effect, with more numerous districts and single-candidate voting instead of lists. There were boycotts by the young generation who remained skeptical and had lost faith in the system. There were also uncertainties about the outcome and little or no violence, despite the extreme political tension and polarization. These are all factors of immense significance.
The early elections were brought about by popular demands after massive demonstrations that began on October 2019, led by a new generation who defied what they saw as a corrupt, sectarian and nepotistic political establishment that had failed them in every way. The protesters rejected the outcome of the 2018 elections, which they saw as rigged. They also defied the armed factions and kept their protests peaceful, despite being confronted by violence with over 600 dead and 36 of their leaders assassinated.
It is also important to note that the elections were conducted by Iraqis themselves; the Americans kept at a safe distance, with minimum military presence, and were careful not to say anything that might have adversely influenced the process. All foreign interference was rejected. Statements by the EU and UN officials were also criticized; the special representative of the UN Secretary General, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert was nicknamed Um Fadak, in reference to the pro-Iran militia leader Abu Fadak. At the same time, Iraqis wanted the legitimacy and protection that international observers brought to the operation.
There were mixed results — a victory for the Sadrists under the banner of Iraqi nationalism at the expense of the Fatah coalition and Iranian influence, together with the arrival of new faces in parliament in the form of independent members. It is now possible to imagine that had there been no boycott, the new election law would have brought more civil society and independent candidates into parliament. No single party has enough seats to govern on its own, and there is speculation about possible coalitions.
There is also a historical and international context. The traumatic recent history of Iraq, well before the US invasion, has taken its toll and is a factor that affects the ability of society to recover. The Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the Kuwait invasion and the second Gulf War, the massacres of Kurds at Halabja and Anfal, the crushing of southern Shiite revolts in the south in 1991, the ethnic cleansing of what were known as the March Arabs —all are part of the legacy of Saddam’s rule well before the additional traumas caused by the US invasion itself. Iraqi transition could have started in 1991 had the Bush Sr. administration not had cold feet about regime change, but Saddam was left in power and the population punished further with heavy sanctions and the country being split into three zones.
We also live in an era when elections have been problematic globally, bringing about results that threaten the democratic process itself. The underlying reason is a lack of confidence in corrupt political establishments everywhere, with populist leaders filling the gap, often undermining the electoral process that brought them to power in the first place. Fraught relations between states and their societies, with a failure to deliver essential public services, brought us leaders such as Narendra Modi in India, Viktor Orban in Hungary, Jair Bolsanaro in Brazil, Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines and Donald Trump in the US. There have also been close shaves in the Netherlands, Poland, Italy and even Austria.
Elections are thus a necessary but insufficient condition for a healthy democratic and free society. In the last century, fascism and fascist movements conquered swaths of Europe, initially through legitimate elections. In Algeria, Palestine and Egypt people elected extremist Islamist movements mostly as a protest. In Algeria this triggered a civil war that people called the “dirty war,” which lasted almost 11 years from 1991 to 2002. In Palestine, Hamas won elections in 2006 but the result was rejected by Israel, the US and the EU and collapsed the peace process, splitting Gaza from the West Bank. In Egypt and Tunisia, the Muslim Brotherhood were elected and proved to be useless at running both countries, which eventually brought back authoritarian regimes. Elections are also sometimes used to legitimize the worst regimes, such as that of Bashar Assad in Syria.
All these problems with elections make the result of the last Iraqi ones even more significant. If it were not so soon after the Afghanistan fiasco, I would be dancing in the street myself to celebrate a new era in Iraq’s transition, 18 years after the toppling of Saddam Hussein and, yes, after “regime change.” If this is all what it seems, if a semblance of liberal democracy has been restored in Iraq for the first time since 1958, then there are enormous implications for the region and many taboos will be broken.
With the scars of Afghanistan still stinging and bearing the mind the US-Iran talks in Vienna, I am touching wood and thinking of caveats within caveats, like Russian dolls, with extremely cautious optimism in case the whole edifice collapses after being sold down the Danube.
• Nadim Shehadi is the executive director of the LAU Headquarters and Academic Center in New York and an associate fellow of Chatham House in London.

Morocco’s king appoints new ambassadors to tackle key issues with Europe
Mohamed Alaoui/The Arab Weekly/October 19/2021
RABAT--Morocco’s King Mohammed VI appointed two new ambassadors to France and the European Union (EU), in a move that aims at tackling outstanding issues and easing tensions between Rabat and Brussels over a number of files, including migration, the crisis with Spain, and the European Court of Justice’s decision to cancel the Free Trade Agreement for Agricultural and Fishing Products with Morocco.
The king named Mohammed Benchaaboun as Ambassador to France and Youssef Amrani as Ambassador to the EU, in a decision that was announced in a statement following a ministerial council chaired by King Mohammed VI in Fez.
Benchaaboun served as a CEO of BCP bank, one of Morocco’s largest lenders, and in 2018, he was appointed finance minister. In the last couple of years, he stood out for his good performance in countering the repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic, with his department emerging as one of the best performing ministries in mitigating, containing the pandemic’s repercussions and preparing ground for a bounce back.
Benchaaboun will likely work to address the intractable problems in relations between Paris and Rabat, especially with the approach of the French presidential elections and the challenges they pose when it comes to economy, trade, and a possible exploitation of some sensitive files for electoral purposes.
Mohamed Al-Tayyar, a researcher in political and security studies, said that “the appointment of Benchaaboun as ambassador to Paris comes in the context of a situation in which relations between Morocco and France have become particularly cold, especially following the French media campaign that accused Morocco of espionage, as well as the French decision to reduce visas granted to Moroccans.”
The Moroccan Foreign Minister, Nasser Bourita, had condemned France’s decision to reduce the number of visas issued to people in North Africa as “unjustified.”
“The decision [by France] is sovereign. Morocco will study it, but the reasons given to justify it require explanation and a dialogue, because they do not reflect reality,” he said in late September.
In a statement to The Arab Weekly, Tayyar explained that “the recent appointment takes in consideration Benchaaboun’s economic background and extensive experience, as France is one of the Kingdom’s most prominent trading partners, and it has a large Moroccan community compared to other European countries.”
Tayyar indicated that “the new ambassador, by virtue of his experience, will work to diversify and develop the economic partnership with Paris, in a way that breaks with the blackmail approach that France was pursuing in its relationship with Morocco, by exploiting the file of the Moroccan Sahara.”
Amrani, the new Moroccan ambassador to the EU, is an insider of Morocco’s Foreign Ministry. He held several positions, including Rabat’s ambassador to South Africa since 2019.
Amrani, who joined the Moroccan Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1978, also served in several positions, including State Secretary in charge of the Maghreb Union between 1989 and 1992 and Consul General in Barcelona between 1992 and 1996.
He also served as Morocco’s ambassador to Colombia, Chile, and Mexico.
Tayyar believes that “the appointment of Amrani as ambassador to the European Union comes amid a tense climate that has marked relations between Rabat and Brussels, after the European Union sided with Spain in its row with Morocco.”
The files that the two new ambassadors will work on include the economic one, which calls for evaluating the trade exchange between the European Union and Morocco, attracting new investments, as well as solving the immigration problem with Europe.
Amrani will face the challenge of easing tension between Rabat and Brussels, especially with regard to the issue of immigration and the repercussions of the crisis with Spain, as well as the decision of the European Court of Justice.
The Moroccan-European relations will likely receive special attention from the new ambassador t due to the Spanish government’s efforts to implicate the Union in the bilateral crisis with Morocco. “The appointment of Amrani, who has exceptional experience in diplomatic work and has previously held many diplomatic positions, will have a good impact on Rabat’s relationship with Brussels, and will work to overcome this critical stage for balanced relations based on respect for Morocco’s sovereignty,” Tayyar said.

Elections showed utter limits of Iraqis’ support for Iran
Ibrahim al-Zobeidi/The Arab Weekly/October 19/2021
The results of the vote has revealed that resentment of Tehran’s presence in Iraq is strongest among Shia constituencies.
The results of recent Iraqi elections showed that the section of the population that rejects Iranian occupation the most are Shia groups which were misrepresented as the loyal sectarian incubator of Iran’s encroachment in Iraq. Through demonstrations, uprisings, sit-ins and other grassroot activities, these groups have proven their commitment to the constants of Iraqi society, including the spirit of independence and resentment of the Iranian presence. They have remained faithful to the ideals of its resistance and deliverance from Iran, despite all the convoys of martyrs, wounded and the disappeared they have suffered in the heroic showdown with Iran’s proxies. This was clearly made evident by the defeat of the pro-Iran parties despite unlimited government, militia, financial and military support, while independent candidates with hardly any financial means won seats in the race. There is no more tell telling sign of the depth of Iraqis’ rejection of Iran’s presence and of its political parties and militias than the fact that the vast majority of the armed elements belonging to the Popular Mobilisation Forces and other pro-Iran armed factions, which were thought to be loyal to Iran, turned their backs on Tehran and gave their votes to independent rivals and candidates connected to the October uprising.
As one probes the reality of the Iranian presence in Iraq and its limits, it becomes clear that all the wounds inflicted by Iran and its Iraqi agents on Iraqi society have remained superficial and they will heal faster than anyone imagined. Iran’s support base in all Iraqi regions, especially in the central and southern governorates, long described as of being pro-Iranian, has remained confined to the Popular Mobilisation Forces and other armed factions and to major government agencies and state institutions along with isolated (popular) segments that have tied their fate to Iranian presence, either out of ignorance or financial interest. The most important conclusion that a careful reading of the final election results is that three-quarters of the Iraqi population have boycotted the elections and that the remaining quarter voted for parties not controlled by Ismail Qaani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force, but for other groups hostile to him and to his loyal followers. If by a miracle, the elections were to be re-organised, and all abstaining voters cast their ballots, all of Iran’s agents would receive no votes. They would probably end up behind bars, being tried for eighteen bloody years and unforgivable crimes. One of the most important benefits of the recent elections, despite all its flaws and shortcomings, is that they have punctured the myth that Iranian weapons in Iraq are there to defend the Shia community and preserve its rights. The threat made by the “Coordination of Armed Factions” that lost in the elections, that they would resort to arms “if the demonstrators who reject the results of the elections are harmed” reveals that these militias will not shy away from burning down the country and killing its people, if the Wali al-Faqih orders it and when their interests are at risk. They know that most of those rivals who have sparked their anger by winning the elections, are from Shia constituencies in Iraq’s governorates. But the greatest blessing bestowed upon us by the recent Iraqi elections is that they have proved to the Iraqis, Lebanese, Syrians and Yemenis, in particular, that the Iranian presence in Iraq, despite all its armed brigades and all its tyranny and brutal repressive methods, is a paper tiger and a drop in the sea of ​​authentic Iraqi society. Unlimited thanks go to the young people of the October uprising, who have lifted the veil on a regime that is rotten from within and returned hope to the people that salvation is near.