Question: “What is the spiritual gift of leadership?”
GotQuestions.org/Answer: The Bible gives the means for the church to accomplish tasks, develop the local congregation, serve the needs of the fellowship, and help it establish a community witness. The Bible describes these means as spiritual gifts, one of which is the gift of leadership. The spiritual gift of leadership in the local church appears in these lists in two passages, Romans 12:8 and 1 Corinthians 12:28. The Greek word translated “rule” or “govern” in these verses designates one who is set over others, or who presides or rules, or one who attends with diligence and care to a thing. In 1Thessalonians 5:12, it is used in relation to ministers in general: “And we beseech you, brethren, to know them which labor among you, and are over you in the Lord.” Here the word is translated “over you.”
Everything rises and falls with leadership. The more skillful and effective the leadership, the better the organization runs and the more the potential for growth increases. In Romans 12:8 the word translated “ruler” indicates care and diligence with reference to the local church. The ruler is to attend, with constant diligence, to his work, which is to watch over the flock and to be ready to sacrifice personal comfort to look after needy sheep.
There are several characteristics of those with the spiritual gift of leadership. First and foremost, they recognize that their position is by the appointment of the Lord and is under His direction. They understand that they are not absolute rulers, but are themselves subject to the One who is over them all, the Lord Jesus who is the Head of the church. Recognizing their place in the hierarchy of the administration of the body of Christ prevents the gifted leader from succumbing to pride or a sense of entitlement. The truly gifted Christian leader recognizes that he is but a slave of Christ and a servant of those he leads. The Apostle Paul recognized this position, referring to himself as a “servant of Christ Jesus” (Romans 1:1). Like Paul, the gifted leader recognizes that God has called him to his position; he has not called himself (1 Corinthians 1:1). Following Jesus’ example, the gifted leader also lives to serve those he leads, and not to be served by them or lord it over them (Matthew 20:25-28).
James, the half-brother of the Lord Jesus, had the gift of leadership, as he led the church in Jerusalem. He, too, referred to himself as “a servant of God and of the Lord Jesus Christ” (James 1:1). James exhibited another quality of spiritual leadership—the ability to sway others to think rightly, biblically, and godly in all matters. James persuaded those in Jerusalem on the contentious issue of how to relate to Gentiles coming to faith in Jesus the Messiah. “And after they had become silent, James answered, saying, ‘Men and brethren, listen to me: Simon has declared how God at the first visited the Gentiles to take out of them a people for His Name’” (Acts 15:13-14). With that opening statement he led them to think clearly and biblically, enabling them to come to a right decision on this issue (Acts 15:22-29).
As shepherds of God’s people, ruling with diligence includes the ability to discern true spiritual needs from “felt” needs and to lead others to maturity in the faith. He leads others to grow in their ability to discern for themselves that which comes from God from that which is cultural or temporary. Like Paul, his words are not “wise and persuasive” but are filled with the power of the Holy Spirit, leading and encouraging others to rest their faith on that very power (1 Corinthians 2:4-6). The goal of the gifted leader is to guard and guide those he leads “until we all attain to the unity of the faith and of the knowledge of the Son of God, to mature manhood, to the measure of the stature of the fullness of Christ” (Ephesians 4:13).
The spiritual gift of leadership is given by God to men and women who will help the church to grow and thrive beyond the current generation. God has given the gift of leadership not to exalt men, but to glorify Himself when men and women use the gift He gave them to do His will.
Bible Quotation For Today/An hour is coming when those who kill you will think that by doing so they are offering worship to God
John 16/01-04: “‘I have said these things to you to keep you from stumbling. They will put you out of the synagogues. Indeed, an hour is coming when those who kill you will think that by doing so they are offering worship to God. And they will do this because they have not known the Father or me. But I have said these things to you so that when their hour comes you may remember that I told you about them. ‘I did not say these things to you from the beginning, because I was with you.”
Bible Quotation For Today/Look, the men whom you put in prison are standing in the temple and teaching the people
Acts of the Apostles 05/21b-33: “When they heard this, they entered the temple at daybreak and went on with their teaching. When the high priest and those with him arrived, they called together the council and the whole body of the elders of Israel, and sent to the prison to have them brought. But when the temple police went there, they did not find them in the prison; so they returned and reported, ‘We found the prison securely locked and the guards standing at the doors, but when we opened them, we found no one inside.’ Now when the captain of the temple and the chief priests heard these words, they were perplexed about them, wondering what might be going on. Then someone arrived and announced, ‘Look, the men whom you put in prison are standing in the temple and teaching the people!’ Then the captain went with the temple police and brought them, but without violence, for they were afraid of being stoned by the people. When they had brought them, they had them stand before the council. The high priest questioned them, saying, ‘We gave you strict orders not to teach in this name, yet here you have filled Jerusalem with your teaching and you are determined to bring this man’s blood on us.’ But Peter and the apostles answered, ‘We must obey God rather than any human authority. The God of our ancestors raised up Jesus, whom you had killed by hanging him on a tree. God exalted him at his right hand as Leader and Saviour, so that he might give repentance to Israel and forgiveness of sins. And we are witnesses to these things, and so is the Holy Spirit whom God has given to those who obey him.’
When they heard this, they were enraged and wanted to kill them.”
The Caporal as president Mike Helu/ 05.06.15
Damn with any Christian who supports a traitor, because he becomes a traitor himself.
Damn with any Christian who forgets the murderers Assad and his son the Butcher and what they did to Lebanon.
Damn with any Christian who seeks orders from the outside.
Damn with any Christian whose heart and soul are filled with violence and war.
Damn with any Christian who doesn’t place Lebanon first and foremost and values its independence, freedom and total sovereignty.
The day the Caporal is no longer a servant to Ebola;
The day he condemns the Butcher of being a criminal and an assassin;
The day he stops destroying the institutions
The day he rejects the Mutelateh;
The day he stops family nepotism and feodalism;
The day he asks his son-in-law about the 700 millions $;
The day he asks Simon “min ayna laka haza” about his multimillion villa in Ehmej;
The day he asks ALL the OTHERS about their luxury apartments;
The day he gives back the monnies hidden in his wife’s account;
The day he stops destroying the Institutions,
The day he is healed from his mental illness;
That DAY he will be president.
Geagea: Some Claim to Defend Lebanon in Syria as They Paralyze ‘Heart of Lebanon’ in Baabda
Naharnet/05.06.15/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Friday said that an alleged “inter-Christian” dispute is not behind the ongoing presidential vacuum in the country, slamming some parties for “paralyzing” the presidential palace while claiming to be “defending Lebanon in Qalamoun and Syria.”“How can we believe that some are defending Lebanon in Qalamoun and the rest of Syria, in Iraq and Yemen, while they are paralyzing the Baabda Palace – the very heart of Lebanon?” said Geagea at an LF rally, in an apparent reference to Hizbullah. “How can we believe that they want a strong president while they could not even tolerate a consensual par excellence president?” he added. Geagea warned that “the continued insistence on obstructing the presidential vote … is leading to vacuum and paralysis at the constitutional and security posts, one after the other.” “This exposes the claims of some parties who attribute the vacuum to an inter-Christian dispute and raises questions about their ultimate objectives,” Geagea added.
The rival camps have failed to elect a successor to president Michel Suleiman although around 24 parliamentary sessions have been held for this purpose. A boycott by the MPs of Hizbullah and MP Michel Aoun’s Change and Reform bloc has stripped the sessions of the two-thirds quorum required to hold a presidential vote. Geagea held a landmark meeting with Aoun on Tuesday after which a joint LF-Free Patriotic Movement document was announced. In the so-called declaration of intent, the two parties called for the election of “a strong president who is embraced by his (Christian) community and capable of reassuring the other components of the country.”
Turning to the issue the Syrian conflict and its impact on Lebanon, Geagea slammed Hizbullah on Friday over its military intervention in the neighboring country. “You did not commit to the 10,452 square kilometers so that you now witness the convoys of arms and gunmen violating Lebanon’s border ‘10,452 times per day’,” Geagea said, addressing his party’s members at the rally. “Some are trying to impose on the (Lebanese) army a battle in the utmost peripheries of Arsal’s outskirts to serve the objectives of a non-Lebanese (force),” added Geagea. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had recently warned that Hizbullah would intervene against the militants of al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State in Arsal’s outskirts if the state failed to do so. Since Wednesday, Hizbullah has made a series of military advances in Arsal’s outskirts, capturing several posts from al-Nusra’s hands. Both Hizbullah and Aoun had called on the Lebanese state and army to “liberate” the town and its outskirts. Separately, Geagea called on the Military Court to “restore the confidence of the Lebanese in their state,” citing the initial jail term that was handed to ex-minister Michel Samaha, which was eventually revoked on Tuesday by the military court of cassation. “The military court of cassation is today asked to erase the hallmark of shame that was created by Michel Samaha’s verdict in the Assad-Mamluk-Samaha case,” he said, referring to Syrian President Bashar Assad and Syrian security chief Ali Mamluk. The court set a July 16 date for Samaha’s retrial after it accepted an appeal filed by State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr, who argued that the four-and-a-half years’ jail term was too soft in light of the offenses that Samaha was convicted of. The verdict had sparked a storm of criticism from al-Mustaqbal movement, the March 14 forces and civil society activists, who slammed the ruling as too light. During the trial, Samaha confessed to transporting explosives from Syria for use in attacks in Lebanon at the behest of Mamluk. The trial had been postponed multiple times because of the absence of Mamluk, who remains in Syria, but after a judge separated the cases against the two men, a first trial session began on April 20. The Lebanese judiciary has issued an arrest warrant for Mamluk and sent Syria a formal notification of the warrant and charges, but received no response.
Nasrallah Says Arsal Outskirts Advances Will Ease Burden on Army, Vows to Displace ‘Millions of Israelis’ in Any War
Naharnet/06/05/2015/Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah noted Friday that his group’s military advances against extremist militants in the outskirts of Arsal would “alleviate the burden” on the Lebanese army, which is deployed inside and around the northeastern border town. “The battle of Arsal’s outskirts will greatly alleviate the burden on the army and it will facilitate the steps that the state and the people have asked the army to perform,” said Nasrallah via video link to a rally organized by Hizbullah-affiliated al-Mahdi Scouts.
“Let the government deal with the issue in a serious manner,” added Nasrallah. On Thursday, the government tasked the army with taking necessary measures to deploy inside Arsal to protect it against possible militant attacks, expressing its “full confidence” in the military institution. Nasrallah had recently warned that Hizbullah would intervene against the militants of al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State in Arsal’s outskirts if the state failed to do so. Since Wednesday, Hizbullah has made a series of military advances in Arsal’s outskirts, capturing several posts from al-Nusra’s hands. “The government’s decision was clear yesterday when it said that the army should regain the town and protect it. The issue of the town of Arsal is not in the hands of politicians anymore, it is in the hand of the army, and the Lebanese want the Army Command to shoulder this major national responsibility,” added Nasrallah. Commenting on the controversy that followed his previous speech, Nasrallah clarified that he had “distinguished between the town and its outskirts.”“No one said that we want to enter Arsal. This town is occupied by the takfiris and the responsibility for regaining the town falls on the state and the army,” he pointed out. “Their diabolic mind suggested that Hizbullah wants to enter the town of Arsal,” he added. Hizbullah’s chief also accused some Lebanese parties of waging a campaign of “political hypocrisy and deception and malicious and cheap political exploitation.”“Some people invented a battle called the town of Arsal and started talking about it and started claiming that they were defending Arsal’s residents,” he lamented. Nasrallah noted that “what expedited the battle” of Arsal’s outskirts” was a recent Nusra attack on Hizbullah’s fighters in the border region between Lebanon and Syria. He declared that Hizbullah fighters have liberated swathes of Lebanese territory that were “occupied by the takfiris in Arsal’s outskirts.”“A major progress occurred in Flita’s outskirts (in Syria’s Qalamoun). The latest achievements will give your brothers in the resistance and the Syrian Arab Army the upper hand, both in Qalamoun’s outskirts and Arsal’s outskirts,” added Nasrallah. Nasrallah also dismissed accusations that Hizbullah intends to create a militia similar to Iraq’s Popular Mobilization forces. “We do not intend to form brigades or popular mobilization forces,” he stressed. “At this stage, we need popular solidarity and support and we don’t need fighters to achieve our objectives. Until the moment, there is no need for ‘popular mobilization forces’ or a general popular mobilization,” Nasrallah clarified. He noted that “the men of the resistance who are fighting in the mountains” are “the sons of these tribes, families and villages.” Sectarian tensions surged in northern Bekaa in recent days after a number of Baalbek and Hermel tribes announced the formation of what they called al-Qalaa Brigade and said they stood ready to intervene militarily in Arsal’s outskirts if Hizbullah gives them the greenlight. Separately, Nasrallah hit back at recent remarks by a senior Israeli military official, who threatened that the Israeli army would displace more than a million Lebanese from southern Lebanon in any future war with Hizbullah. The official spoke as the Israeli military approached the conclusion of a week-long domestic front drill simulating conflict on multiple fronts. “Israel used to fight its wars on our soil, but in the July war and the Gaza wars the war moved to the enemy’s territory, which forced it to do domestic front drills,” Nasrallah noted. “During the latest drill, some Israeli officers addressed threats to Lebanon and said more than a million Lebanese will be displaced, but this is part of a psychological warfare,” he added. He described the Israeli drill as “an acknowledgment of the capabilities of the resistance.”“If you are threatening to displace 1.5 million Lebanese, the Islamic resistance in Lebanon is threatening to displace millions of Israelis in the coming war, if it was imposed on Lebanon,” Nasrallah warned.
“We do not fear your war or threats, and nothing has changed if you believe that we are preoccupied with Syria,” he added.
Lebanese Army Pounds Militant Positions on Outskirts of Ras Baalbek
Naharnet//06/05/2015/The Lebanese army heavily targeted Friday militant posts on the outskirts of the northeastern border villages of Arsal and Ras Baalbek in the Bekaa. The state-run National News Agency reported that the military targeted with heavy artillery and rocket launchers the positions of jihadists, who are entrenched on the outskirts of the northeastern border town. NNA said that troops observed the movement of militants near Jdeidet al-Fakha region. The army had bolstered its patrols in Arsal and other border towns “to prevent any attack on the area,” in light of the intensified battles between Hizbullah and al-Qaida-affiliate al-Nusra Front in Syria’s al-Qalmoun area. The party’s fighters had tightened the noose around the last remaining jihadist pockets along the Lebanese-Syrian border. Hizbullah, which has said it wants to protect Lebanon “from the jihadist menace”, has been fighting in Syria on behalf of President Bashar Assad’s regime for more than two years. Syria’s civil war has regularly spilled into Lebanon, with jihadists briefly overrunning the eastern Lebanese town of Arsal in August after running gun battles with the army. The jihadists withdrew after a ceasefire, but took with them several dozen hostages from the Lebanese army and police, four of whom have since been executed.
Gambia Expels Lebanese Tycoon Accused of Hizbullah links
Naharnet/06/05/2015/One of the Gambia’s most powerful business magnates, accused by the United States of funding Hizbullah, has been expelled, Gambian government sources said on Friday. Lebanese-Gambian multi-millionaire Hussein Tajudeen, a former close friend of President Yahya Jammeh, was ordered out for “unacceptable business practices that are detrimental to the Gambian economy,” according to the presidency. “Hussein Tajudeen… who is declared persona non grata by President Jammeh, has left the shores of this country. I can confirm that he is no longer in the Gambia,” a senior government official told AFP. Tajudeen, scion of the nationwide Kairaba supermarket chain and a Gambian resident for 16 years, was the country’s main importer of rice and flour as owner of the parent company, Tajco.The business is alleged by the U.S. to be part of a multinational network that has generated millions of dollars for Hizbullah, designated by the White House as “among the most dangerous terrorist groups in the world.”U.S. sanctions imposed in December 2010 targeted a network of businesses owned or controlled by Tajudeen and his brothers in the Gambia, Lebanon, Sierra Leone, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the British Virgin Islands. He and his family have denied the allegations. A statement from the presidency said Tajudeen, his family and “all his business associates” were banned indefinitely from doing business in the west African nation. The statement did not mention the U.S. accusations and gave no other detail on the decision but said Tajudeen had 30 days to close his Gambian businesses.”I don’t know what he has done and what is responsible for his deportation, but I can confirm to you that he has since left this country. That is all I can tell you,” a Tajco employee told AFP. The affair has sent shockwaves through the business community in mainland Africa’s smallest nation, where retailers and the impoverished public rely on cheap imported goods to keep shopping bills down. An economist in Banjul warned that the expulsion could lead to shortages of rice, sugar, onions, flour and cooking oil.
“Ramadan is drawing close and if the state has not taken that issue into consideration before taking this decision, there might be a scarcity of basic foodstuffs in the market, since most of the things we consume in this country are imported by Tajco,” he told AFP on condition of anonymity. The Gambia has expelled Tajudeen before, in June 2013, for stocking groceries months past their sell-by date.He was given a presidential pardon and permitted to return four months later. Agence France Presse
Lebanese-Canadian arrested in Cyprus denies link to Hezbollah
By REUTERS/06/05/2015/A Cypriot court extended the detention of a Lebanese-Canadian man on Friday over the discovery of five tons of chemical fertilizer in a case Israel says bears the hallmarks of the Hezbollah guerrilla group. Authorities detained the 26-year-old man, holder of a Canadian passport, in late May after finding ammonium nitrate, a potential explosive, in the basement of a home in the coastal town of Larnaca where he had been staying. Security sources say authorities are looking into a possible link with Iranian-backed Hezbollah, a claim also made by Israel, but the suspect denies any connection with the group or the hoard of chemicals. “He denies all connection with Hezbollah,” his lawyer, Andreas Mathikolonis, said. Mathikolonis said the man had happened to be at the property because his family was considering renting or buying the property. A magistrate in the coastal town of Larnaca ordered that the man, who has not been publicly identified, remain in custody for a further eight days. The case was heard in camera, with authorities citing national security to prevent media leaks. A security source said about five tonnes of ammonia nitrate had been found in the basement of the Larnaca property, mixed in with icepacks, with the total haul including the icepacks amounting to about 15 tonnes.
“We are looking into how long it was there,” said the source, adding it could have been many months or even a couple of years. The authorities have established how it arrived in Cyprus, the source said, declining to elaborate. Ammonium nitrate, if mixed with other substances, can become a very powerful explosive. Under Cyprus anti-terrorism laws, anything that can be used potentially as an explosive, with probable cause, is an offense. Fertilizer-based bombs remain the explosive of choice for many militant groups across the world. They were used in the 2002 Bali bombings, which killed 202 people, and in attacks in 2003 on the HSBC bank headquarters and the British Consulate in Istanbul in which 32 people died. Cyprus has said little about the case, but Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, citing information he said he received from Cyprus, said the fertilizer had been intended for bombs. “These were apparently meant to be ready for attacks on us,” he told reporters on Monday, referring to Israelis or Jews in Cyprus or elsewhere in Europe. He said the explosives might also have been intended for attacks against Western targets. Cyprus is a popular holiday destination for Israelis. It is in the European Union and hosts two British military bases. The island has little militant-related activity despite its proximity to the Middle East. Its last major security incident was a botched attack on the Israeli embassy in 1988, which killed three people.
Girault Tackles Presidential Crisis with Berri, Salam
Naharnet/Jun. 05, 2015/Tthe Middle East and North Africa at the French Foreign Ministry discussed Friday the presidential impasse with Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Tammam Salam. Jean-François Girault separately tackled with the two officials the protracting presidential deadlock and the latest developments in the region. Both meetings at the Grand Serail and Ain el-Tineh were attended by French Ambassador to Lebanon Patrice Paoli. The French diplomat arrived Wednesday on a two-day official visit.He kicked off his tour on Thursday by meeting with Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil. Girault’s visit coincides with that of Papal envoy to Lebanon former Foreign Minister Monsignor Dominique Mamberti, who left Lebanon on Thursday morning. Mamberti pressed the importance of ending the presidential vacuum during his meeting with Lebanese officials. Media reports had said that France, the Vatican and Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi are synchronizing their efforts to end the presidential vacuum.Girault expressed pessimism over the protracting presidential vacuum during his last visit in February, considering an imminent breakthrough is not possible. Lebanon has been without a president since May last year when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of his successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps have thwarted the elections. The French diplomat had been in shuttle diplomacy where he held talks in Riyadh, Tehran, Washington and the Vatican over the presidential crisis.
Lebanon held hostage The Daily Star/Jun. 05, 2015/The latest implosion in the Lebanese Cabinet is a stark demonstration of the need for a two-tiered system of government – one that deals with pressing national issues, and the other that deals with the petty bickering of political factions. The agriculture minister’s walk-out Thursday came after his colleagues declined to discuss an initiative to reroute agricultural exports due to the war raging in Syria. They felt that trying to reach an agreement on top security appointments took priority. While security is certainly a top issue, along with making appointments elsewhere in the civil service, there is the matter of the livelihoods of thousands of families – farmers, businessmen and others – who are still dedicated to producing goods and selling them at home and abroad. Ministers and political factions are within their rights to refuse to endorse Cabinet items they disagree with, such as the appointment of X, or the extension of Y. But it is simply unacceptable to hold the public hostage, whether it’s about decisions on agriculture or many other matters that affect the lives of tens of thousands of people. This behavior only highlights how Lebanon is headed toward being a failed state, as petty rivalries and competition over coveted government posts are put ahead of taking care of the many areas where urgent action is needed. The government should separate between the two. Rivalry and compromise may take place on certain matters, provided that it doesn’t block action when it comes to real-world issues and urgently needed national solutions.
Consultative Gathering: To Refrain from Obstructing Constitution and Elect President
Naharnet/Jun. 05, 2015/The Consultative Gathering welcomed on Friday the government’s decision on the northeastern town of Arsal, and the need to hold responsible all those obstructing the constitution. In a statement read by Telecommunications Minister Butros Harb, the gathering, which is led by former President Michel Suleiman said: “We denounce how some politicians continue to ignore the danger that Lebanon is facing and continue to obstruct the parliamentary sessions to elect a president.” “We call on all those obstructing the election of a president not to obstruct the constitution too, and head to the parliament at once,” said Harb from his residence where the meeting took place. It was attended by Suleiman, Kataeb leader Amin Gemayel and eight cabinet ministers loyal to them.
“All those boycotting the electoral sessions are to be blamed” for the failure to elect a new head of state he added. The rival camps have failed to elect a successor to Suleiman despite around 24 parliamentary sessions. The MPs have not met the two-thirds quorum required to hold an electoral session. Suleiman’s six-year term at Baabda Palace ended on May 25 last year, the longest time the post has been vacant since the devastating civil war ended in 1990. On the cabinet’s session on Arsal, the Gathering said: “We welcome the cabinet’s decision and its reassurance that it will continue to back the army and hold responsible all those obstructing the constitution.”The cabinet decided to take all necessary measures to deploy inside Arsal to fend off any assault by militants who are entrenched on the mountainous area along the Lebanese-Syrian border.
Lebanese suspect in Cyprus ammonium nitrate haul to stay in custody
Associated Press/Jun. 05, 2015/LARNACA: A Cypriot court has extended the detention of a Lebanese-Canadian man who was arrested after police seized five tons of a chemical compound that can be turned into an explosive at a home he was staying in. The court ordered in a closed hearing Friday that the 26-year-suspect remain in police custody for another eight days to help police with their investigation of the ammonium nitrate haul. A security official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he’s not authorized to publicly discuss the case said authorities will soon issue an international arrest warrant for the Lebanese-French owner of the Larnaca home, who is currently abroad.
Survey: Saudis consider Iran their top enemy, not Israel Associated Press/Ynetnews
Published: 06.04.15/ Israel News
Majority of Saudis think their country should seek nuclear weapons if Iran acquires an atomic bomb; a quarter of respondents thinks Israel and Saudi should join forces against Iran.
An Israeli college has quietly conducted an opinion poll in Saudi Arabia, concluding that the Saudi public is far more concerned about the threats of Iran and the Islamic State group than Israel, and that the vast majority of Saudis support a decade-old peace offer to the Jewish state. The survey conducted by the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya provides Israelis with a rare glimpse inside Saudi Arabia and may change Israeli perceptions about the desert kingdom. The two countries are longtime foes with no diplomatic relations.
The poll found that 53 percent of Saudis named Iran as their main adversary, while 22 percent said it is the Islamic State group and only 18 percent said Israel. The poll also showed that a majority of Saudis think their country should seek nuclear weapons if Iran acquires an atomic bomb. A whopping 85 percent also support the Saudi-led Arab Peace Initiative, which calls for peace with Israel in return for a full Israeli withdrawal to its pre-1967 borders. The results indicate significant common ground between Saudi Arabia and Israel, whose prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been outspoken in his criticism of an emerging nuclear deal between Iran and global powers. Netanyahu, who believes Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon, says the deal will leave much of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure intact. He has also claimed that unnamed Arab countries, presumably Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Gulf countries, share his concerns. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, insisting its atomic program is for purely peaceful purposes.
“What we think here in Israel about the Saudis is not exactly what they are,” said Alex Mintz, who heads the IDC’s Institute for Policy and Strategy and oversaw the survey. “There is a great identity of interests and threats and agendas … some would even like to join forces with Israel.”The questioners told respondents that they worked for the IDC, though they did not say they or the school were Israeli. Mintz said few people questioned the source of the survey, and those who did raise questions did not make the connection to Israel. He said there were no unpleasant exchanges.
The institute, which last year carried out similar surveys of Iranians and Gazans, said it relied on information gathered from the Saudi Arabian directory and bureau of statistics to proportionally sample 13 regions of the country based on their populations. It said Arabic-speaking Israelis called a mixture of mobile phones and landlines and encountered a 22 percent response rate.
Mintz said the full results of the poll would be revealed next week at the IDC’s 15th annual “Herzliya Conference,” a gathering of Israel’s military and political elite, but offered The Associated Press the data in advance. Although Israel and Saudi Arabia have no official contact they have grown closer in recent years, mostly due to their common concern over Iran. A quarter of the poll’s respondents said Israel and Saudi Arabia should join forces to fight Iran together.
Saudi Arabia was the driving force behind the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, offering Israel a comprehensive peace with dozens of Arab and Muslim countries in exchange for a withdrawal from all territories captured in the 1967 Six-Day War and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Netanyahu has said the initiative might be a starting point for discussions but that it is unacceptable as a take-it-or-leave-it offer. Mintz said he hoped the Israeli government would seize on the new information to adjust its traditional policies. “We assume that we know what people in Iran, Gaza and Saudi Arabia think, but guessing and actual empirical evidence is two different things. For example, nobody that I talked to thought that Saudis would say by a margin of 3-to-1 that Iran scared them more than Israel, nobody predicted that,” he said.
“This is really a Sunni-Shiite divide and it has nothing to do with Israel and their focus has shifted. There is a commonality of interests between Saudi Arabia and Israel right now that the Israeli government should take advantage of and capitalize because it is unique in the history of the two states,” he said. The poll, conducted in conjunction with the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, surveyed 506 Saudis over the phone and had a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
Education minister tours testing centers as Brevet exams kick off
The Daily Star/Jun. 05, 2015/BEIRUT: Official exams for Grade 9 (Brevet) students kicked off Friday, with policemen deploying at centers across Lebanon where testing was taking place. Education Minister Elias Bou Saab toured two exam centers in Beirut where he met with students. “The exams are going on very quietly,” he told reporters. “The exams are not difficult.”Bou Saab said there were no obstacles facing exam corrections, adding that the Union Coordination Committee was aware that the wage hike crisis which disrupted exams last year could not be solved under the difficult circumstances Lebanon is passing through. Thousands of Grade 9 and Grade 12 students went through a nerve-wracking experience last year when official exams were postponed as a result of a UCC protest led by teachers.
The union has been battling the government for more than four years to pass a public sector wage hike, and boycotted the correction of last year’s exams to pressure Parliament to take action. The ordeal ended with Bou Saab issuing passing certificates to all Grade 9 and Grade 12 students. Although the battle is not over, the UCC has significantly scaled back its actions since last year, when they led massive street rallies and strikes over the issue.
Lebanon doctors strike over arrest in baby amputation case
The Daily Star/Jun. 05, 2015/BEIRUT: The Order of Physicians Friday issued a work stoppage order at hospitals and medical clinics across Lebanon after police arrested a doctor accused of neglecting a baby patient whose limbs later had to be amputated. The decision, announced at a news conference held at the headquarters of the Order of Physicians, came two days after physician Issam Maalouf was arrested. “Only urgent emergency cases would be admitted,” head of the Order of Physicians Antoine Bustani said, adding that they would not go back to work until Maalouf is released. “What happened with Dr. Issam Maalouf, who was arrested during interrogation in the case of Ella Tannous, this is not the first time something like that happens,” Bustani complained. “Everyone should know that a doctor is bound by the ethical, humanitarian and professional responsibility toward his patient,” he added. “The Order of Physicians considers that if the patient’s rights are superior and second to none, it means that the rights of the doctor are being neglected,” he lamented.
The decision affects about 12,000 doctors registered with the Order of Physicians. A recent report by the Order of Physicians’ Investigation Committee said Maalouf only showed up at the Our Lady of Succour Hospital in Jbeil 24 hours after Ella Tannous, a baby girl younger than one year, was admitted on a weekend late in February. “Therefore, there was no assessment of the gravity of the situation, which has led to failure to give her [Ella] the necessary medical care, which later led to the amputation of all four limbs at the American University Hospital,” the Committee report said. Health Minister Wael Abu Faour has requested the Order of Physicians to refer the case to the Disciplinary Council to take measures in the case, and not wait for the court ruling, which could take several years.
Ella’s father, Hassan Tannous, had said that the doctor, who he did not name, told him that his daughter had suffered a kidney failure. Photos of Ella posted online showed the baby’s limbs had turned a dark purple as her condition rapidly deteriorated before the amputations.
Pentagon: Iran continues to advance military technologies amidst nuclear talks
JPOST.COM STAFF/06/04/2015/The US Defense Department issued a statement saying Iran has continued to work on developing advanced military technologies – such as ballistic missiles – while in the midst of finalizing a nuclear deal, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.
According to Bloomberg, a Pentagon report of Iran’s military capabilities concluded that the Islamic Republic paused progress in its nuclear program once obligations under the Joint Plan of Action, reached with the US and other world powers, were fulfilled.
The Pentagon assessment found that “covert activities [by Iran] appear to be continuing unabated,” particularly in countries such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and Bahrain, where Iranian Revolutionary Guards have a strong base. Iran’s military prowess is defensive, the report claimed, intended to isolate the regime “from the consequences of Tehran’s more aggressive policies” of terrorism and covert activities. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a similar press statement on Wednesday after his meeting with New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Murray McCully. He alleged that Iran was continuing to operate its nuclear program while world powers are preparing to resume negotiations with the Islamic Republic. “There are reports that show Iran is continuing to increase its nuclear arsenal while continuing to negotiate,” part of the statement read. Nuclear talks are headed towards a June 30 deadline.
Jailed ‘voice of Saddam’ Tareq Aziz dies
Agence France Presse/Jun. 05, 2015/NASIRIYAH, Iraq: Tareq Aziz, who served as the voice of Saddam Hussein’s government, died in Iraqi hospital Friday aged 79 after years of poor health as a convicted prisoner, a doctor said. “Tareq Aziz arrived at the Hussein Teaching Hospital at 3 pm,” Dr Saadi al-Majed, the head of the health department in Dhi Qar, the province where he was jailed, told AFP. “He died because of a heart attack,” the doctor said. Adel Abdulhussein al-Dakhili, the deputy governor of Dhi Qar, confirmed that Aziz died in hospital in Nasiriyah, where the former foreign minister was brought when his health worsened. Aziz had long been in poor health, suffering from heart and respiratory problems, high blood pressure and diabetes, and his family repeatedly called for his release from custody. In 2011, his lawyer said Aziz wanted then-premier Nuri al-Maliki to accelerate his execution due to his worsening health. Aziz was found guilty of “deliberate murder and crimes against humanity” for a crackdown on religious parties in the 1980s, and was sentenced to death in October 2010. He was also handed various prison sentences for other crimes. As Saddam’s principal spokesman, the bespectacled Aziz – the only Christian in the now-executed dictator’s inner circle – was a recognizable figure internationally whose rise was attributed to unswerving loyalty to Saddam. Once omnipresent, haranguing the international media and instantly recognizable in his trademark thick glasses, neat uniform and large cigar, Aziz turned himself over to American custody a month after the U.S.-led invasion of March 2003. Named foreign minister in 1983 and then deputy premier in 1991, Aziz was believed to have wielded little real power over decision-making, but was one of the regime’s best-known figures abroad.
Israel, Saudi Arabia admit secret diplomacy for first time By DANIEL J. ROTH/J.Post/06/05/2015
Israel and Saudi Arabia have held five secret meetings since the beginning of 2014 to discuss the common threat Iran posses to the region, it was revealed for the first time Thursday at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, according to Bloomberg. Although the two are considered to be historic enemies, with Saudi Arabia refusing to recognize the Jewish State’s right to exist, they never-the-less have engaged in a campaign of clandestine diplomacy in an effort to thwart the Islamic Republic’s growing influence in the Middle East. Dore Gold, slotted to be the next director general of the Foreign Ministry, and Anwar Majed Eshki, a retired Saudi general and ex-adviser to Prince Bandar bin Sultan and the former Saudi ambassador to the US, both addressed the Washington think-tank event, according to Bloomberg. “Our standing today on this stage does not mean we have resolved all the differences that our countries have shared over the years,” Gold said, adding “But our hope is we will be able to address them fully in the years ahead.”The five bilateral meetings over the last 17 months occurred in India, Italy and the Czech Republic. One participant, Shimon Shapira, a retired Israeli general and an expert on the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, was quoted as saying :”We discovered we have the same problems and same challenges and some of the same answers.” Shapira described the problem as Iran’s activities in the region, and said both sides had discussed political and economic ways to blunt them, Bloomberg noted.
General Security chief, Abbas Ibrahim warns against defaming state institutions The Daily Star/Jun. 05, 2015/BEIRUT: In addition to the threats posed by Israel and jihadis, Lebanon faces a third threat coming from insiders who “distort” the country’s institutions, General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim said. “What is established is that Lebanon currently faces two threats: The first, on its southern borders, which are witnessing Israeli infiltration by land, air and sea,” he said in his monthly column for General Security Magazine Friday. “The other [comes] from the eastern borders, from extremist groups and organizations that do not accept the other, any other, or his right to live.”“[But] there is a third, hidden threat that is as significant as both of those, which is some people’s systematic campaign to distort the work of official security and military institutions, which weakens the trust of the Lebanese in their country, be it intentionally or unintentionally.”Ibrahim said all the country’s components should instead be focused on closing ranks to ensure Lebanon’s safety facing the first two threats, especially amid the unstable economic and security situation. The magazine issue also included an interview with Abbas, in which he emphasized that dialogue is the only way to ensure stability. He also promised that Lebanon’s “sovereignty and laws” would not be violated during the negotiations with the jihadis holding 25 Lebanese servicemen hostage. Ibrahim later met with Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai Friday to discuss the issue of the kidnapped servicemen in Arsal. “Concerning the servicemen held hostage by Nusra, I confirmed to his holiness that the negotiations in this file are over, and that what’s left is only [agreeing on] the timing and process of the swap operation,” he said. The Al-Qaeda affiliated Nusra Front holds 16 Lebanese hostages in Arsal’s outskirts, while nine others are held by ISIS. Ibrahim has announced that the negotiations with ISIS had begun, but still have a long way to go. The two groups originally kidnapped 37 Lebanese soldiers and policemen during deadly clashes with the Army in Arsal last August. Nusra has freed eight captives and murdered two, and ISIS beheaded two soldiers.
Israeli Druse seriously concerned about brethren in Syria ARIEL BEN SOLOMON/06/05/2015
We are worried about the Syrian Druse and demand that the world not stand by and do nothing’ • By ARIEL BEN SOLOMON Israeli Druse expressed their anxiety to The Jerusalem Post on Thursday, saying they are very concerned about the fate of their brethren across the border in Syria. “We are worried about the Syrian Druse and demand that the world not stand by and do nothing,” said Druse and Circassian Local Councils Forum head Jaber Hamoud. Hamoud, who served 25 years in the army and is also the head of the municipality of Sajur, a Druse town in the Galilee, said that if the world would arm the Druse, they would be able to defend themselves and help prevent Islamic State from reaching Israel and Jordan. “The Druse love peace, but they know how to defend themselves. They need the means, not knives and axes,” he added.
Asked about Druse opinion about the situation, he replied that all Druse are united in their support for their brothers in Syria. President Bashar Assad’s forces are weakening in Druse areas, including near the village of Hader, close to the Israeli border, Channel 1 reported earlier this week. Jerusalem is closely following developments, in case Druse flee to Israel from the jihadist threat. Sheikh Maufak Tarif, the head of the Druse community in Israel, told the Post on Tuesday that the country’s Druse call on the governments of Israel and the US to prevent a catastrophe for their brethren across the border in Syria. “We request that the Americans attack Islamic State in this area, just as it is doing in other parts of Syria,” Tarif said.
Golan Druse resident Ayman Abu Jabal told the Post on Thursday that all Druse are concerned, and that it is possible a demonstration would be held in the near future to show their support. A demonstration that was scheduled to take place on Saturday was canceled for security reasons. Asked if Israeli Druse would go to Syria to fight and help defend Druse areas from the jihadists, Jabal responded that this most likely will not be the case, but that Israeli Druse are nonetheless fully supportive of the Syrian Druse.
Regarding Israel’s position on a possible Druse run on its border, a government official said this week that it is willing to take in a certain number of Syrians for medical treatment, but they would return to Syria when the treatment is over. This continues to be the policy, he said.
*Herb Keinon contributed to this report.
Turkish Islamists Target Historic Hagia Sophia Church
Burak Bekdil/The Gatestone Institute
June 5, 2015 http://www.meforum.org/5292/turkey-islamists-hagia-sophia
Originally published under the title, “Turkey: “Home of Bad Jokes.”
Turkish Islamists are demanding the right to hold religious services in Hagia Sophia, a sixth century Byzantine church in Istanbul.
In 2014, a group of marketing gurus produced impressive visual material that became Turkey’s public relations (PR) face across the globe. The campaign, aiming to make Turkey one of the world’s top five tourist destinations by 2023, danced around the slogan “Home of…” “Home of Coffee,” one poster said. “Home of Trade,” said another. The list included “Home of Troy,” “Home of Ancient Gods” and “Home of the Iliad,” too. But not just that. According to the PR campaign, Turkey was also “Home of Virgin Mary” and “Home of Christianity.” The latter two sufficed to make Turkey “Home of Bad Jokes.”
Ironically, as the PR campaigners put out posters telling the world that Turkey was “Home of Christianity,” crowds of Islamic religious “imam school” graduates gathered in Istanbul and issued a press statement demanding that the historic Hagia Sophia Church function as a mosque:
The Hagia Sophia, for us, is not just a prayer house; it symbolizes, together with the Conqueror’s (Sultan Mehmed II) heritage, our independence… Without it being opened to (Muslims) prayers, there is no way we, the Turkish nation, can be fully independent.
The story of Hagia Sophia is a sad one. Its Christian builders could never imagine that the country that would host it centuries later would never feel “independent” unless it was converted into a mosque.
Turkey has no shortage of mosques – there are more per capita than in Iran’s Islamic Republic.
The Hagia Sophia Church was originally built in 537 in the Byzantine capital Constantinople. Until the fall of the city to Ottoman Turks in 1453 it served as an Eastern Orthodox cathedral and seat of the Orthodox Patriarchate, except between 1204 and 1261 when the Latin Empire converted it to a Roman Catholic church.
In 1453, Mehmed II ordered the cathedral to be converted into a mosque. The bells, altars, iconostasis, sacrificial vessels and other relics were removed from the holy building. Mosaics depicting Jesus, Mother Mary and Christian saints and angels were removed or plastered over; and Islamic features were added to the Orthodox-Roman Catholic-and now Muslim prayer house. In 1935, the Orthodox-Roman Catholic-Muslim prayer house was turned into a museum. Since then Turkey’s pious Muslims have launched numerous campaigns to open the unfortunate “Orthodox-Catholic-then Orthodox again-Muslim prayer house-and now a museum” to Muslim prayers again.
The Hagia Sophia, in fact, has a namesake in the Black Sea province of Trabzon (originally “Trapezounta” in Greek). Built by Manuel I between 1238 and 1263, it had been converted to a mosque after Mehmed II conquered the city in 1461. Its frescos were covered in whitewash. In 1964, the church-mosque was turned into a museum, only to be converted into a mosque once again in 2012.
But this did not satisfy the local Muslim congregation. Conservative newspapers complained that, “Muslims are being forced to pray ‘in a mosque’ in front of ‘Christian icons and fresco.'” Muslims were demanding the lifting of restrictions on the destruction of such historical objects at their “mosque.” No one even asked why there were Christian objects at a mosque.
Protestors gather outside of Hagia Sophia on May 24 to demand its conversion into a mosque.
In April, the top Muslim official in Ankara said that Pope Francis’s labeling of the mass killings of the Ottoman Armenians as “the first genocide of the 20th century” would only accelerate the reopening of Hagia Sophia to Muslim worship. Professor Mefail Hizli, the mufti of Ankara, said: “Frankly, I believe that the pope’s remarks will only accelerate the process for Hagia Sophia to be re-opened for [Muslim] worship.”
More recently, a large rally in Istanbul demanded that the Turkish government convert the Hagia Sophia into a mosque. The rally was led by the Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH), the organizers of the Gaza-bound Mavi Marmara flotilla raided by Israeli forces in May 2010. At the rally, protesters carried signs that said, “Hagia Sophia needs to be reopened as a mosque” and “Let our lives be sacrificed for Islam.”
The Turks physically conquered Istanbul in 1453, but Islamists apparently think the conquest is incomplete.
Shortly before the rally, Turkey’s Religious Affairs Directorate launched the exhibition “Love of Prophet” as part of a weeklong event dedicated to the commemoration of the birth of the Islamic Prophet, Muhammad. It was at this exhibition that the Hagia Sophia Church saw its first Quran recitation under its roof in 85 years.
Turkey has no shortage of mosques. On the contrary, devout Turks enjoy the comfort of more mosques per 1,000 population than Sharia state Iran. The campaigns for the “Hagia Sophia Mosque” have nothing to do with a shortage of Muslim prayer houses in Turkey’s most populous city. They merely reflect an Islamic crusader mindset. The Turks physically “conquered” Istanbul back in 1453, but pious Turks apparently think the conquest is incomplete with “Christian heritage” around. If the “conquest” is to be complete, all traces of “Christian heritage” must be wiped out. It is the same mindset that convinces Turks that Jerusalem, first built about 10 centuries before the birth of Islam, is a sacred Islamic city. With the possible reopening of the Hagia Sophia to Muslim prayers, Turkish Islamists will feel victorious. They will have conquered another holy edifice of Christianity. Then, at the Hagia Sophia mosque, they will gather to pray for the “liberation” of the “holy Muslim city” of Jerusalem.
**Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a columnist for the Turkish daily Hürriyet and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Assad nears the tipping point
David Ignatius/The Washington Post
05/06/05
The regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria is facing what U.S. experts say is the most intense pressure since the early days of the four-year conflict . This new squeeze poses some stark choices for the United States, Russia, Iran and Syria’s neighbors.
“Based on current trend lines, it is time to start thinking about a post-Assad Syria,” argues a U.S. intelligence official. Until recently, U.S. analysts had characterized the situation there as more of a stalemate. But over the past month, rebel gains in northern and southern Syria have begun to tip the balance. U.S. officials see mounting pressure on Assad from four directions. A potent new rebel coalition known as Jaish al-Fatah, or the Army of Conquest, backed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, seized the capital of Idlib province late last month. Fighting ferociously alongside this coalition is Jabhat al-Nusra, or the al-Nusra Front, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda. Moderate rebels known as the “Southern Front,” backed by the United States and Jordan, are finally gaining some ground in southern Syria. And the Islamic State, the most fearsome group of all, is rampaging across northern, central and eastern Syria.
“Assad faces hard choices as battlefield losses mount,” says the U.S. intelligence analyst. As the pressure increases, some Assad supporters are taking precautions. Russia is reportedly evacuating some personnel from Assad’s ancestral homeland of Latakia, in northwest Syria. Meanwhile, some members of Assad’s circle are said to be seeking visas abroad and otherwise preparing for the possibility that the regime may fall.
A sense of the escalating battle came in a telephone interview Thursday with Capt. Islam Alloush, the spokesman for a group known as the Islamic Army, which is coordinating with the Jaish al-Fatah coalition. Reached at what he said was a location near Aleppo, he explained that the rebels are now moving toward the two key Assad strongholds — Latakia and Damascus. “There is no doubt that the Assad army is weaker,” he said.
But a word of caution about this “endgame” talk. Assad has seemed in trouble before, but he has been rescued by Iran and its proxies. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani seemingly doubled down this week, declaring that he stood with Assad’s government “until the end of the road.” This suggests that Tehran recognizes the new pressure but doesn’t intend to buckle. Sources say additional Iranian proxy forces have recently entered Syria to help bolster the lines.
The rebel squeeze on Assad poses some vexing problems for the United States, too. That’s because many of the recent battlefield gains have been made by jihadist groups the United States regards as extremist, such as the al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State. Some officials fear that if Assad collapses, these extremist groups will rush to fill the vacuum — making the region even more unstable.
The United States refuses to work with Jabhat al-Nusra, regarding it as a band of unrepentant al-Qaeda followers, even though the group is said to receive indirect support from Turkey and Qatar. U.S. officials weren’t persuaded by an interview broadcast last week by Al Jazeera with al-Nusra Front leader Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, in which he offered conciliatory statements toward Syrian minority groups and said his fight isn’t with the United States.
Joulani didn’t disavow al-Qaeda, as some had hoped, which might have opened the way for a tactical alliance. U.S. experts continue to regard him as a dangerous foe and to warn against cooperation with his fighters. This complicates planning in the north, where the al-Nusra Front shares operations rooms in Idlib and Aleppo with Jaish al-Fatah. The Islamic State has gained so much ground in Syria and Iraq recently that some Middle Eastern strategists argue for allying now with a lesser evil, the al-Nusra Front faction and other jihadists, to stop the Islamic State. The logic, explains one official, is “First you defeat Hitler, then you defeat Stalin.” Other analysts argue that the only good knockout punch is Turkish military intervention, backed by U.S. air support.
The Obama administration’s focus remains a diplomatic settlement. Officials argue that Moscow and Tehran will eventually see so much pressure on Assad, from so many dangerous jihadist groups, that they will embrace negotiations for a political transition away from the current regime. U.S. officials keep hoping for such a change of heart by Russia and Iran. But four years into this gruesome war, hope is not a strategy. The United States, sadly, still hasn’t built a reliable, moderate force that could push Assad over the tipping point and govern Syria after he goes.
Iran Will Walk
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute
June 5, 2015 http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5895/iran-will-walk
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Praetorian Guard of Iran’s regime, controls most of the economy, as well as the black-market, alternative economy. The IRGC therefore actually benefits from sanctions; it is private firms, such as those involved in international commerce, that suffer. Why would IRGC operatives want to see the playing field made more level by private investment, transparency and a competitive economy?
Sanctions never hurt the regime’s ruling class; lifting them only helped the regime solidify its power over its people.
The objective of these two demands [an immediate lifting of all sanctions and no, or severely limited, inspections] is either to have them accepted, or to render it untenable for the Obama administration to offer Congress any deal that could be accepted – thereby shifting blame for the collapse of the talks to the U.S.
The U.S should also be on guard against the mullahs’ belief that the Obama administration is weak both politically and its aversion to using force. The mullahs might find great pleasure in humiliating Obama, as they did President Jimmy Carter, by dragging out hostage crisis negotiations by running out the clock until his term was over. They clearly believe that the Obama administration, simply to say it got “a deal,” is ready to sign anything.
From Washington to Riyadh, not to mention Jerusalem, statesmen are gritting their teeth at the possibility of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that seems overly generous to the theocratic-terror state of the Islamic Republic.
Representatives of the P5+1 countries pose with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif after nuclear negotiations in Lausanne, Switzerland on April 2, 2015. (Image source: U.S. State Department)
Most intelligence analysts and journalists assume that because Iran’s leadership endorsed the negotiations and has been the beneficiary of several key concessions by the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany), that an agreement is imminent. Forecasters have been predicting what the likely consequences of such a deal would be: negative.
But what if the Iranians walk?
Sanctions never hurt the regime’s ruling class; lifting them only helped the regime to solidify its power over its people.
A nuclear deal combined with an improvement in the commercial and business relations with the West would be inimical to IRGC interests.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Praetorian Guard of the regime, controls most of the economy as well as the black-market, alternative economy. IRGC-controlled conglomerates operate outside the law and reap huge profits through their control of the black market. The IRGC therefore actually benefits by sanctions; it is the private firms, such as those involved in international commerce, that suffer.
Furthermore, IRCG naval vessels, and private ships under their control, have been engaging in sanctions-breaking deliveries of imports across Persian Gulf waters to Dubai. The IRGC then sells the products at a profit by filtering them through the many foundations they control in Iran.
The most recent example of IRGC’s skirting of sanctions involved the illegal acquisition of aircraft through front-organizations with offices in both Europe and the Arabian Peninsula. Mahan Air, an IRGC front, was able to purchase 15 used commercial aircraft for $300 million. Another front, al-Naser Air, was about to purchase two more aircraft, this time from a U.S. owner. Israeli intelligence, however, passed details of the planned sale to the U.S. government, and on May 21, the deal was scuttled by the Office of Export Enforcement of the Department of Commerce.
Why would IRGC operatives want to see the playing field made more level by private investment, transparency and a competitive economy?
Moreover, if a nuclear deal indicated improved relations with the United States, Iranian hardliners, whether clerical revolutionaries or intelligence operatives, might fear seeing their ideological legitimacy erode. The Iranian regime’s only remaining fig leaf of legitimacy is its anti-American animus, with its accompanying pledge to “protect” Iran’s interests against the U.S.-Israel-Sunni “alliance.”
Improved relations with Washington might raise false hopes among Iran’s citizens that the regime may ultimately improve its woeful record on human rights. There remains only a thin patina of clerical control over Iranian society; if the hoped-for social and political reforms were not implemented, the result could produce a destabilizing political environment, harmful to the interests of the regime.
Another fallacy embraced by many “inside-the-beltway” analysts is that, as the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei endorsed the negotiations, a legitimate deal is now probable.
The once all-powerful Office of the Supreme Leader no longer calls all the shots. The current Iranian regime resembles a military junta or a security state as much as a theocracy. While the reach of Ayatollah Khamenei, through his network of representatives, still penetrates all dimensions of Iranian society, he does not have the final decision on key security matters. The regime’s strategic assets, for instance, such as its ballistic missile programs, are firmly under the control of the IRGC. Decisions related to Iran’s expansionist presence in the region are made by IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani. The role of Khamenei’s representative to the IRGC resembles more that of a handler than of an action officer.
The principal task for the regime is to find a way to back out of the negotiations while avoiding the blame. Iran’s efforts at disengagement may already have been underway for the past few weeks; the pace of decoupling from the talks seems to be accelerating. Iran has been increasing its demands apparently in the hope that they will either be accepted, or else rejected like the “poison pills” they are — such as inspectors no longer being allowed on its military sites.[1]
Another way to make the talks no longer palatable for the Obama administration was to create a hostile incident with the United States in the Persian Gulf, as it has tried to do by aggressively tailing American warships. Iranian ships affiliated with the IRGC Navy also seized a commercial ship, the Maersk Tigris, in the Strait of Hormuz, and temporarily detained both vessel and crew. Then, on May 14, IRGC boats fired several shots across the bow of a Singapore flagged vessel, but it escaped unharmed.
By this type of reckless comportment, the IRGC Navy appears intent on producing a clash with American naval vessels in the Gulf waters. Western negotiators have only to recall the presidency of Mohammad Khatami, when the IRGC and Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security operated independently after they felt that the reformers had gone too far, thus threatening hard-liner control of the regime. The IRGC may have decided that Rouhani along with his American-educated Foreign Minister Zarif have reached a similar tipping point. This independent IRGC initiative is being executed even though a deal would release Iranian monetary assets that would in turn boost the sagging economy.[2]
Iran’s combative posture in Gulf waters against international shipping is also a direct challenge to international maritime law, which guarantees freedom of navigation through the world’s shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz. A key principle of U.S. foreign policy is to enforce this freedom of navigation, if it is challenged by any foreign power, as one also hopes the U.S. will do in the South China Sea.
Iranian military and political spokesmen have also raised the temperature of their anti-American and anti-Israeli rhetoric of late. Leading members of the regime, including its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, keep repeating, “Death to America” as well as its theological “obligation” to destroy Israel. While the Obama administration has alleged that these threats are just for “internal consumption,” an old Persian saying goes: “They spit in his eye and he calls it rain.”
Mojtaba Zolnour, Ayatollah Khamenei’s Deputy Representative to the IRGC, stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran, “has the divine permission to destroy Israel.” This media assault on Israel was designed to widen the divergence between the Obama administration and the Israeli government regarding the efficacy of the framework of a nuclear agreement negotiated so far.
Additionally, various Iranian principals have drawn “lines in the sand” designed to cause the Americans to disengage from the talks, such as the assertion that Iran will never accept inspection of its declared military sites. Another is Tehran’s repeated statement that it will not accept a gradual lifting of sanctions. Iranian leaders have insisted on immediate and irreversible lifting of all sanctions immediately after a nuclear deal is signed. The objective of these two demands is either to have them accepted, or to render it untenable for the Obama administration to offer Congress any deal that could be accepted — thereby shifting the blame for the collapse of the talks to the U.S.
Regime hard-line representatives to the majlis [Iranian Parliament] have already been mobilizing members to denounce the talks as detrimental to Iran’s national sovereignty. Eighty majlis members signed a petition on May 12, calling upon the regime to suspend the nuclear talks until Washington halts its rhetorical threats against Iran. Hardliners in the majlis and elsewhere within the regime’s bureaucracy will likely continue to lobby against any deal.
Western analysts should be looking for the Iranian regime’s hard-line media outlets to increase domestic commentary condemning alleged U.S. deception in the negotiations as a reason to abandon the talks.
The death knell for the nuclear negotiations could come from newspapers such as Kayhan, a pro-regime newspaper run by Hossein Shariatmadari, and often characterized as a Khamenei mouthpiece.
The regime’s Friday-prayer Imams in key Iranian cities might also start opposing the talks. The themes of their noonday khutbahs [sermons] are likely to appeal to Iranian people’s patriotism, and suggest that it is more important for Iran to endure continued sanctions rather than submit to intrusive monitoring that offends Iran’s sovereignty.
Finally, hardliners who oppose any possibility of Iran’s improved relations with the U.S. may launch personal attacks on Iran’s negotiators to the nuclear talks, and, in an effort to discredit them, challenge their loyalty to the Iranian revolution. Their point of attack on Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s loyalty might be his alleged obsequious behavior to Secretary of State John Kerry. Zarif, on account of his many years of residency and education in the United States, can be depicted as an Americanized Iranian.
The United States should also be on guard against the mullahs’ belief that the Obama administration is weak — both politically and in its reluctance to use force. The mullahs might find great pleasure in humiliating Obama as they did President Jimmy Carter, when they dragged out hostage crisis negotiations by running out the clock until his term was over. They clearly believe that the Obama administration, simply to say it got “a deal,” is ready to sign anything.
Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve, where he was a Military Attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Israel.
[1] “Iran’s powerful Guard rejects inspection of military sites” by Ali Akhbar Dareini, Associated Press, 19 April 2015. Deputy Chief of the IRGC General Hossein Salami is quoted and several more statements by IRGC officials since have repeated the same prohibitive statements regarding Iran’s military sites.
[2] “U.S. to Award Iran $11.9 Billion Through End of Nuke Talks,” Washington Free Beacon, 21 January 2015. In the first of many subsequent denunciations, Senator Mark Clark of Illinois attacked the Obama administration’s plan to free Iran’s frozen assets if nuclear deal is reached.
Sources: Egyptian Qaeda militant once jailed for Sadat assassination dies
Reuters/Ynetnews/Published: 06.05.15/Israel News /Jihadist served 31 years for successfully plotting with Islamists to kill then-president Anwar Sadat in retaliation for historic peace treaty with Israel. An Islamist militant jailed for plotting al Qaeda bombings since his release from prison in 2012 after serving time for his role in the assassination of Anwar Sadat, has died in hospital, security sources said on Friday. Nabil al-Maghrabi, a former naval intelligence officer, was taken to hospital from prison 10 days ago after his health deteriorated significantly, the sources said. “He suffered from cancer, liver illness and old age,” said one source, who estimated his age at about 76. Egyptian newspaper reports carried news of Maghrabi’s death on Friday. Maghrabi had been released from jail in 2012 after serving 31 years for taking part in the 1981 assassination of Sadat. The Egyptian president was killed by Islamist members of the military opposed to his 1979 peace treaty with Israel. Maghrabi was arrested again in late 2013 for being “part of a terror organization and for planning bomb attacks in the country”, a security source said at the time of his arrest. He was among a group of defendants being tried over accusations that include killing policemen, attacking a church and joining a terrorist organization, the sources said. Nabil’s nephew Ahmed al-Maghrabi said the prison had informed the family about Maghrabyis death. “They went there after Friday prayers, received the body and buried him in their cemetery in Giza,” he told Reuters. Authorities believe Maghrabi was also a close associate of former army major Waleed Badr, who blew himself up in Sept. 2013 in a failed attempt to kill the ex-interior minister in Cairo. Islamist militants based in the Sinai, who have pledged allegiance to Islamic State, have killed hundreds of soldiers and police since the army toppled Islamist President Mohamed Morsi in 2013 after mass protests against his rule.
Exclusive: Tehran expected to invoke defense pact for large-scale troop deployment to Syria
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 4, 2015/Thursday, June 4, reliable sources in Tehran expected the Iranian government to invoke its 2006 mutual defense pact with Syria “in the coming hours” for the transfer of Iranian troops to Syria – most likely by air. This was reported by debkafile’s exclusive military and intelligence sources. It would be Tehran’s first direct military intervention in the Syria conflict as it goes into its fifth year. Bashar Assad’s regime and the Syrian and Hizballah armies are collapsing under the twin assaults of the Islamic State and the armed Syrian opposition forces and in need of urgent life support. The possibility of invoking the Iranian-Syrian mutual defense pact for saving the Assad regime was first raised in a debkafile article on May 30.
Tehran was persuaded that, without direct intervention, its ally would go under at any moment Thursday when Islamic State forces broke through Syrian army defenses to the northern Syrian Kurdish town of Hasakeh, which sits on the Syrian-Iraqi-Turkish border junction. Towards evening, the Islamists had come to within one kilometer of the strategic town and captured its power station. Its defenders, the Syrian army’s 52nd Division, were falling apart under the ISIS assault; some of the soldiers making a run for it.
Although the town is ruled by a coalition of central government and local Kurds, there was no operational coordination between the Syrian and Kurdish forces defending the town against the common enemy.
If ISIS manages to take Hasakeh, it would chalk up its third major victory in a couple of weeks after capturing Palmyra in Syria and the Iraqi town of Ramadi. Its fall would provide the Islamists with an open route across northern Syria to northern Iraq and strengthen their grip on Mosul, their Iraqi capital. It would also count as a major setback for the United States, whose air strikes in support of Hasakeh’s Kurdish defenders failed to stall the Islamist advance.
In the southern sector too, Syrian troops of the 68th and 13th divisions defending Deraa are reported to have laid down arms and fled under the massive onslaught of the opposition Army of Conquest coalition. Tehran’s final decision about sending a substantial Iranian force to Syria is awaited in the coming hours. This intention was strongly intimated in the last 48 hours by Adm. Ali Shamkhani, head of Iran’s National Security Council, and Gen. Qassem Soleimani, supreme commander of Iran’s Middle East operations. Both announced that dramatic events for Syria are to be expected in the coming days.
Canada: Muslim caught with $20,000 weapons cache to be deported
June 5, 2015 12:41 pm By Robert Spencer 19 Comments
Muhammad Aqeeq Ansari“It could have been acceptable that the reason he spent $20,000 purchasing guns and ammunition was the result of the financial irresponsibility of youth and the novelty of having hundreds of thousands of dollars at his disposal. The fact, however that he amassed $20,000 in guns and ammunition over such a short period raises questions and concerns, that remain plausibly unanswered, regarding his motives and whether there was an underlying plan given that he also spent a fair amount of time at the gun range practicing his shot.”
“Pakistani man caught with $20K weapons cache in Peterborough, Ont., will be deported within the month: CBSA,” by Stewart Bell, National Post, June 1, 2015:“
TORONTO — A member of a Pakistani terrorist organization who was caught in Ontario with a cache of firearms will be deported within the next month, a Canada Border Services Agency officer said at a hearing Monday.
Muhammad Aqeeq Ansari, who has lived in Canada since 2007, will be deported as soon as travel arrangements have been finalized for himself and the CBSA officers who will escort him to Pakistan, Naureen Ismail said.
Ansari has a valid passport and has waived his right to an assessment of the risks he might face upon his return to his native country, Ismail told the Immigration and Refugee Board at a hearing to decide whether to keep him in custody.
“We anticipate Mr. Ansari’s removal will be effected in the hear future,” Ismail said, arguing he was a flight risk and danger to the public. “We do expect that it will be within the next month but I can’t get any more specific than that right now.”
Ansari refused to participate in the hearing. His lawyer, Derek Lee, a former Liberal MP, did not attend the session. IRB Member Karina Henrique ordered Ansari to remain in detention in Lindsay, Ont., saying his release was “out of the question.”
The IRB stripped Ansari of his permanent resident status and ordered deported last month, ruling he was a member of the terror group Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), also known as the Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jamaal (ASWJ).
In its decision, the IRB said Ansari’s refusal to acknowledge that the SSP had “murdered thousands of people in Pakistan for not sharing their religious views” was “a reflection of either willful blindness or a shared mentality that it is permissible to eliminate anyone who does not share your faith perspective.”
In a basement in Peterborough, Ont., Ansari had stockpiled $20,000 worth of firearms. He made trips to Pakistan to visit a cleric who fought “jihad” in Afghanistan and wrote provocatively about his beliefs on the Internet, once commenting beside a photos of the Toronto Scotiabank Tower, “If I only had a plane.”
The CBSA had linked him to the SSP through his association with Pakistani Deobandi cleric and former jihadist fighter Ilyas Ghuman. Canadian officials said Ansari had been involved with the terror group since before coming to Canada and had been soliciting funds and promoting its goals online.
“It could have been acceptable that the reason he spent $20,000 purchasing guns and ammunition was the result of the financial irresponsibility of youth and the novelty of having hundreds of thousands of dollars at his disposal,” the IRB wrote.
“The fact, however that he amassed $20,000 in guns and ammunition over such a short period raises questions and concerns, that remain plausibly unanswered, regarding his motives and whether there was an underlying plan given that he also spent a fair amount of time at the gun range practicing his shot.”…
