Russia is clearing the decks for Assad
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/03 January/16
Russia still maintains that it is in Syria to fight ISIS. Maybe they will even get round to it one day. Who knows? But in the meantime, their primary target is not ISIS, but rather, everyone who is part of the non-ISIS opposition to President Assad. On Christmas Day, Russia and the Assad forces assassinated a number of rebel leaders of the “moderate opposition.” Chief among them was Zahran Alloush, the undisputed leader of the Sunni militants in the Damascus area, and head of the Islam Army, the most powerful (and most hard-line) of the groups which participated in the Vienna peace process. Alloush was no paragon of liberal virtue – he had a penchant for sectarian rhetoric not too far off from that we hear from ISIS, and with a record of torture and political assassinations behind him. But he did willingly engage with the peace process and is largely credited with completely stamping out ISIS in the territory he controlled. He was not just a bitter enemy of Assad, but also one of the most effective fighters against ISIS.
Wreaking havoc
And Alloush is far from the only one to have been targeted. In the past few weeks, the Russians have wreaked havoc on the leadership structures of many independent anti-Assad non-ISIS groups, with targeted strikes against the most important rebel leaders. Whether those rebel leaders were effective against ISIS as well and could have helped in that effort does not seem to have been a consideration at all. In the past few weeks, the Russians have wreaked havoc on the leadership structures of many independent anti-Assad non-ISIS groups. The upshot is this: at the Vienna talks, Russia is ostensibly pushing for a political settlement between the Assad government and the non-ISIS opposition. On the ground, Russia is assassinating the leaders of the non-ISIS opposition and working to dismantle their militias. In other words, Putin is not only looking to torpedo the Vienna process, but also trying to change the facts on the ground so Assad is the only show in town so when it comes to any ceasefire or peace deal. And the only thing that could stand against ISIS in the final instance. That way, Putin will leave the West no option but to come on board with him and Assad if they want to fight ISIS. But in the meantime, ISIS is doing rather well out of this. The Assad regime has approved the transfer of some 4000 beleaguered Sunni fighters from areas it has safely under siege from areas in safe rebel territory – some of those fighters will be ISIS. And many of the groups who are actively fighting against ISIS, unlike the Russians and Assad, are being decimated, giving ISIS the opportunity to muscle into their territory. It is now only a matter of time before ISIS makes a move into the Damascus areas previously held by Alloush. The de facto military détente between Assad and ISIS continues, the trade in oil and gas continues (despite heavy American bombardment of the transport convoys), and all under the watch of Putin’s “fight against terrorists”. There should be no doubt, however, as to what Putin’s priorities are: to keep a genocidal maniac in power by using the pretext of fighting against terrorism to target any opposition to Assad except for the terrorists themselves. And once again, our Western leaders have no strategic response to this, and no real desire to do anything other than throw bombs at the problem and hope for the best.
Syria bloodshed: Will it only get worse in 2016?
Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/03 January/16
The past year saw an increase in the number of foreign actors directly intervening in the bloody Syrian conflict, yet the humanitarian crisis has worsened and the security situation continues to deteriorate. Several issues should be immediately addressed in the first several months of 2016 while moving toward the broader goal of ultimately ending the conflict in the latter months. Demanding all parties uphold U.N. Security Council resolution 2254 and committing to diplomatically and militarily engaging the Syrian opposition are both crucial. Secondly, the United States and Russia should amend the chemical weapons agreement – which was implemented after the Sarin massacre in 2013 – to bar the use of chlorine gas. Third, the focus of all talks in the immediate term should call for halting the Assad regime’s indiscriminate barrel bombing campaigns and facilitating the transfer of humanitarian aid to the most at-need areas. Meanwhile, Arab states should recommit to the U.S.-led coalition’s fight against degrading both al-Qaeda and ISIS (ISIS) militant groups. Russia has flagrantly violated resolution 2254 since its implementation in mid-December, bombing a number of hospitals and at least one school in Idlib province. Allowing signatories of the agreement to disregard it with impunity renders the document useless. Each violation should prompt an investigation and subsequent consequences. The U.N. should not wait for breaches to mount before addressing them but should instead convene a meeting each time locals report a violation. No progress can be made in ending the conflict if the resolutions already made are continuously abandoned. The second issue that should be prioritized is the Assad regime’s continued usage of chlorine gas. An extremely regrettable consequence of the chemical weapons deal struck in 2013 is that it effectively allowed Assad to continue carrying out chemical warfare with impunity. Absent of any repercussions, the likelihood of another major chemical weapons massacre increases with every chlorine attack the regime carries out.
No excuses for stalled talks
Lastly, the focus of all negotiations and talks in the immediate future must seek to, first and foremost, halt the bloodshed. Efforts to do so should begin with the Assad regime, which remains responsible for the vast majority of deaths in Syria – much more so than barbaric ISIS and al-Qaeda fighters. It is worth reiterating that the U.S. will continue to call for Assad’s ousting while Russia and Iran will refuse to agree to such a reality; this major issue should not be used as an excuse for talks to stall.While there can be no shift in the U.S.-held position that Assad must go, in the meantime, efforts should be made to deal with issues that can actually be immediately addressed. Debating the future of Assad’s grip on power and whether Syria will be ready for elections in the next calendar year is pointless while civilian areas are still being turned to rubble. The priority of talks in the absolute immediate term should be pressuring all parties to facilitate the transfer of humanitarian aid to areas in dire need, including in Madaya where reports indicate starving to death Syrians are being forced to eat cats to survive. As these issues are addressed, Arab states still must re-commit to aiding the U.S. in its fight against ISIS. According to the New York Times in November 2015, eight Arab and Western states conducted only five percent of the thousands of airstrikes in Syria – a totally unacceptable percentage that underscores the fact that Arab states are not leading the fight against ISIS. A number of agreements made abroad in recent years have not halted the bloodshed on Syrian soil. 2016 has to be year the international community follows through on all the red lines it has drawn in the sand. No progress can be made in ending the conflict if the resolutions already made are continuously abandoned.
