Detailed
Lebanese & Lebanese Related LCCC English New Bulletin For September 16/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias
Bejjani
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Bible
Quotations
Ask,
and it will be given to you; search, and you will find; knock, and the door
will be opened for you
Luke 11/09-13: "‘So I say to you, Ask, and it will be given to you; search,
and you will find; knock, and the door will be opened for you. For everyone
who asks receives, and everyone who searches finds, and for everyone who
knocks, the door will be opened. Is there anyone among you who, if your
child asks for a fish, will give a snake instead of a fish?Or if the child
asks for an egg, will give a scorpion? If you then, who are evil, know how
to give good gifts to your children, how much more will the heavenly Father
give the Holy Spirit to those who ask him!"
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Titles For The Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources published on September 15-16/18
Prosecution Highlights Hezbollah, Syrian Links to Hariri Assassination/Hanin
Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/September 15/18
US Democrats to Palestinians: We Won’t Fight Your War”/DEBKAfile/September
15/18
EU to Hold Tripoli Ceasefire Violators Accountable/Khaled Mahmoud /Asharq
Al-Awsat/September,15/18
Greece: "Humanitarian Aid" Organization's People-Smuggling/Maria Polizoidou/Gatestone
Institute/September 15, 2018
In Basra, is it a revolution or a disaster/Hazem al-Amin/Al Arabiya/September
15/18
Yemen peace talks: Houthis setting conditions on a plane staircase/Amal
Abdulaziz Al–Hazani/Al Arabiya/September 15/18
Tripoli and Idlib: A question of strategies and possibilities/Radwan al-Sayed/Al
Arabiya/September 15/18
World’s Post-Lehman Legacy/Brian Chappatta/Bloomberg View/September 15/18
Titles For The
Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
September 15-16/18
Tension Between Lebanon’s ‘Hezbollah’, FPM over Electricity Crisis
Report: No U.S. Plans to Interfere in Lebanon Govt. Formation
Hariri: Challenges ahead Necessitate Accord to Lineup Cabinet
Report: SA to Appoint New Ambassador to Lebanon, UAE Praises Hariri
Rahi: To lower ceiling of demands to facilitate birth of government
Hariri hopes political parties will facilitate government formation "because
they know the challenges facing us"
Bassil meets International Relations Minister in Quebec
Berri: Offending Kuwait and its Emir is rejected and condemned by all
standards
PSP denounces attack against Kuwait and its Emir, deems it reprehensible
Jumblatt meets with Russian Ambassador in Clemenceau
Sayegh: Cabinet Formation Stalemate Encloses Greater Problem
Zeaiter denies all tweets about cow ship issue
Hankache Renews Call for Rescue Government
Prosecution Highlights Hezbollah, Syrian Links to Hariri Assassination
Titles For The Latest LCCC
Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on September 15-16/18
US Democrats to Palestinians: We Won’t Fight Your War”
Defying Dangers, Idlib Residents Protest against Assad
Time Limit of Few Weeks to Dissolve HTS in Syria’s Idlib
Turkey-Russia Discord over Idlib Defers Regime Offensive, for Now
Halbousi Elected as Iraq’s Parliament Speaker
Egyptian Court Orders Arrest of Mubarak's Sons in Corruption Case
Egypt Arrests 6 'Brotherhood' Members in Foiled Alexandria Terrorist Plot
Qatar Ends Support for Hamas Educational Institution in Gaza
Trump, Pompeo Bash Ex-Secretary of State Kerry on Iran Talks
Pompeo: US studying sanction waivers against entities dealing with Iran
The Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on September 15-16/18
Tension Between
Lebanon’s ‘Hezbollah’, FPM over Electricity Crisis
Beirut - Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 September, 2018/Tension
between “Hezbollah” and the Free Patriotic Movement over an electricity
crisis in areas mainly inhabited by Shiites boiled over this week. Members
from Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc sent on Thursday an indirect message to
caretaker Energy Minister Cesar Abi Khalil, who belongs to the FPM.
“Unbalanced power cuts across Lebanon could spark popular unrest,” the bloc
warned following its weekly meeting. "The areas of Tyre, Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel
and the southern suburbs of Beirut are once again appealing to the Ministry
of Energy and Electricite du Liban (EDL) to honor their commitments," the
statement read. Those areas are inhabited by Shiites who mainly back
Hezbollah and its ally the Amal Movement. This year, the Lebanese Forces,
Amal and the Marada Movement have criticized the FPM’s electricity plan,
blaming it for the failure to solve the country’s power crisis. Despite its
rhetoric against the Energy Minister, a member of the “Hezbollah”
parliamentary bloc placed the party’s latest statement in the “framework of
demanding people’s rights.”MP Walid Sukkarieh, who is close to the party,
stressed the bloc was not at loggerheads with the ministry, rather it was
“warning it.”“We are not criticizing based on political grounds, but based
on calls to address the situation of the areas deprived of electricity,”
Sukkarieh said, adding that the crisis is the result of the ministry’s
failure to adopt a comprehensive policy, which starts by producing energy
and later expanding the adequate networks to deliver electricity to all
areas.
Report:
No U.S. Plans to Interfere in Lebanon Govt. Formation
Naharnet/September 15/18/The United States is “keen” on Lebanon’s political
stability and “encourages” the formation of a new government but “without
showing any intention” to intervene directly in this regard mainly the
“inclusion of Hizbullah” in the new Cabinet, al-Joumhouria daily reported on
Saturday. The daily said that “visitors to the U.S.” have reflected keenness
of US officials on Lebanon’s political stability, regularity of its
constitutional institutions and encouragement for lining up a Cabinet
“without any intention to directly interfere in this process.” According to
the US officials, the security situation in Lebanon remains a key priority
for the United States, and Washington welcomes the efforts of the Lebanese
security services to maintain stability in Lebanon and to combat terrorist
organizations. It also “places in its priorities the continued full support
of the Lebanese army to enable it to carry out its tasks.”Although the US
officials view Hizbullah as a “hostile terrorist organization, posing a
threat to Lebanon and the stability in the region,” but it is interesting to
note that these officials did not speak of any American veto to involve the
party in the government, it said. "We have already confirmed our position
that the formation of the Lebanese government is a Lebanese affair," one
official said in response to a direct question about Hizbullah’s
participation in the government.
Hariri: Challenges ahead Necessitate Accord to Lineup
Cabinet
Naharnet/September 15/18/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri expressed his
hopes that disagreements between political parties “disappear” in order to
form a government and face the challenges ahead, his media office said on
Saturday. He said: “My belief is that all political parties know the
challenges we face, whether on the regional, security, economic or
environmental levels. We must be a bit humble and think more about the
country because the economic situation needs attention, and we have a
historic opportunity through the CEDRE conference to advance the
country”.Hariri’s words came during a dinner held by the General Manager of
Khatib & Alami Company, Samir al-Khatib, yesterday evening in his residence
in Mazboud, Iqlim al-Kharroub, in honor of the UAE Ambassador Hamad al-Shamsi.
Premier Hariri, ex-Premier Fouad Siniora, the caretaker Ministers of
Environment Tarek al-Khatib, Telecommunications Jamal Jarrah, and Culture
Ghattas Khoury, MP Bilal Abdallah, the Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid al-Bukhari,
the Egyptian Ambassador Nazih Naggari, the Director General of General
Security Major General Abbas Ibrahim, and the Chairman of the Chambers of
Commerce and Industry Mohammad Choucair attended the dinner. At the onset of
the dinner, held in the honor of ambassador Shamsi, Samir al-Khatib welcomed
the guests and “our brothers in the Arab countries, which has always
supported Lebanon, especially in the dark and difficult stages. The Taef
Accord, sponsored by Saudi Arabia, was maybe the most important step in the
history of modern Lebanon. The United Arab Emirates, along with Saudi
Arabia, has always been at the forefront of Lebanon's supporters in good and
bad times.”He concluded: “Lebanon has passed through more difficult
circumstances and managed to overcome them, and we are sure that this
country will be able to overcome all difficulties to form the next
government.”For his part, Ambassador al-Shamsi said: “Today we inaugurated
some projects, laid the foundation stone for others and checked on projects
under implementation. Next month we will be in the Bekaa with Minister
Jarrah and in Akkar. All appreciation and love for Lebanon. The United Arab
Emirates has a message of love and tolerance for this country and we respect
and appreciate all those who are present.”Hariri then thanked al-Khatib and
said: “Here we feel like we are in our home. We will continue this journey
with Walid Jumblatt, because this relationship is a historical one, whether
with my father, with me or with Taymour. We will continue the path of my
late father, and neither will we abandon Walid bek nor will he abandon us.”
He added: “We thank the Ambassador of the United Arab Emirates for this
generous donation to this region that deserves many projects, like other
Lebanese regions. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have always
supported us in all stages, in good and bad times, in times of war and in
times of peace. You stood with us when the Lebanese disagreed together and
when they reconciled. Thank you for the work you are doing and what you will
do in other regions, in the Bekaa, Akkar, the South and all of Lebanon. I
hope that we will pursue our work together. I hope that disagreements in the
formation of the government will go away because all the political parties
know the challenges facing us. We have a historic opportunity with the CEDRE
conference, which approved 12.5 billion dollars to help Lebanon with
essential projects. The world wants to help us, and we as Lebanese have to
help ourselves.”
Report: SA to Appoint New Ambassador to Lebanon, UAE
Praises Hariri
Naharnet/September 15/18/Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to appoint its Saudi
charge d'affaires to Lebanon Walid al-Bukhari as the country's ambassador to
Lebanon, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Saturday. Al-Bukhari had replaced
ambassador to Lebanon Walid al-Yaacoub back in March after less than three
months in office. He headed the Saudi diplomatic team in Lebanon. The Saudi
move comes as “observers” noted the “words of praise” from UAE Ambassador
Hamad al-Shamsi to PM-designate Saad Hariri during a tour on Friday to
inspect development projects in Iqlim al-Kharroub.“Apart from politics and
diplomacy, the projects are coordinated with Prime Minister Saad Hariri. He
best represents Lebanon, legitimacy and state institutions, of a country
with 18 sects. He is the right man in the right place,” were Shamsi’s words
said the daily. Shamsi expressed hopes “that a government be formed soon to
reflect Lebanon’s legitimacy and credibility to the countries of the world.”
Rahi: To lower ceiling of demands to facilitate birth
of government
Sat 15 Sep 2018/NNA - Maronite Archbishop of Beirut and President of the
Episcopal Media Committee, Archbishop Boulos Matar, held the annual dinner
in support of the activities of the Catholic Information Center, under the
patronage of Maronite Patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros Rahi and the presence
of caretaker Minister of Information, Melhem Riachy. Speaking during the
event, Patriarch Rahi called on all political counterparts for more
"concessions" to facilitate the birth of the long-awaited cabinet, stressing
the importance of resolving urgent issues and addressing the deteriorating
economic situation. Rahi regretted "the dropping political discourse between
politicians," calling on the media outlets to play a primary role in
lowering the political debate. In turn, Minister Riachy said that the
Christian-Christian reconciliation was achieved to stay and continue, in
spite of the distortions, abuses and changes that occurred to it. "We
believe that this reconciliation protects both the free Christian and free
Lebanese presence in Lebanon and in this East," he stressed. Finally, Riachy
pointed out that he would be handing over to his successor the projects left
behind in the corridors of the Secretariat Council of Ministers.
Hariri hopes political parties will facilitate
government formation "because they know the challenges facing us"
Sat 15 Sep 2018/NNA - In a press release by Prime Minister-designate, Saad
Hariri's Media Office on Saturday, it indicated that Hariri has expressed
hope that "the disagreements we see in the government formation will
disappear."
"My belief is that all political parties know the challenges we face,
whether on the regional, security, economic or environmental levels. We must
be a bit humble and think more about the country because the economic
situation needs attention, and we have a historic opportunity through the
CEDRE conference to advance the country," said the PM-designate.
Hariri's words came during a dinner held by the General Manager of Khatib &
Alami Company, Samir al-Khatib, yesterday evening at his residence in
Mazboud, Iqlim al-Kharroub, in honor of the UAE Ambassador Hamad al-Shamsi.
PM-designate Hariri, former Premier Fouad Siniora, the caretaker Ministers
of Environment Tarek al-Khatib, Tele-Communications Jamal Jarrah, and
Culture Ghattas Khoury, MP Bilal Abdallah, the Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon
Walid al-Bukhari, the Egyptian Ambassador Nazih Naggari, the Director
General of General Security Major General Abbas Ibrahim, and the Chairman of
the Chambers of Commerce and Industry Mohammad Choucair attended the dinner.
At the onset of the dinner, held in the honor of ambassador Shamsi, Samir
al-Khatib welcomed the guests and "our brothers in the Arab countries, which
has always supported Lebanon, especially in the dark and difficult stages.
The Taef Accord, sponsored by Saudi Arabia, was maybe the most important
step in the history of modern Lebanon. The United Arab Emirates, along with
Saudi Arabia, has always been at the forefront of Lebanon's supporters in
good and bad times."
He concluded: "Lebanon has passed through more difficult circumstances and
managed to overcome them, and we are sure that this country will able to
overcome all difficulties to form the next government." For his part,
Ambassador al-Shamsi said: "Today we inaugurated some projects, laid the
foundation stone for others and checked on projects under implementation.
Next month we will be in the Bekaa with Minister Jarrah and in Akkar. All
appreciation and love for Lebanon. The United Arab Emirates has a message of
love and tolerance for this country and we respect and appreciate all those
who are present."
PM-designate Hariri then thanked al-Khatib and said: "Here we feel like we
are in our home, in this region, which has always been faithful to the path
of Martyr Prime Minister Rafic Hariri and the Future Movement. We will
continue this journey with Walid Jumblatt, because this relationship is a
historical one, whether with my father, with me or with Taymour. We will
continue the path of my late father, and neither will we abandon Walid bek
nor will he abandon us." He added: "We thank the Ambassador of the United
Arab Emirates for this generous donation to this region that deserves many
projects, like other Lebanese regions. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi
Arabia have always supported us in all stages, in good and bad times, in
times of war and in times of peace. You stood with us when the Lebanese
disagreed together and when they reconciled. Thank you for the work you are
doing and what you will do in other regions, in the Bekaa, Akkar, the South
and all of Lebanon. I hope that we will pursue our work together. On this
occasion, I thank everyone for being present here in the residence of Samir
al-Khatib who always gathers us when we have divergences. Lebanon's
advantage over any other country is that we disagree during the day, and
talk to each other again at night. I hope that these disagreements in the
formation of the government will go away because all the political parties
know the challenges facing us. We have a historic opportunity with the CEDRE
conference, which approved 12.5 billion dollars to help Lebanon with
essential projects. The world wants to help us, and we as Lebanese have to
help ourselves."
Bassil meets International Relations Minister in Quebec
Sat 15 Sep 2018/NNA - Caretaker Foreign Affairs and Emigrants Minister,
Gebran Bassil, met at the Palais des Congrès in Montreal this afternoon with
Quebec's Minister of International Relations and La Francophonie, Christine
St-Pierre. Discussions focused on the cultural and economic relations
between Lebanon and Quebec.
Berri: Offending Kuwait and its Emir is rejected and
condemned by all standards
Sat 15 Sep 2018/NNA - House Speaker Nabih Berri voiced Saturday his strong
rejection of any abuse towards the State of Kuwait and its Emir, stressing
in statement that "any offense to Kuwait and its Emir, Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad
Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, is unacceptable and denounced by all standards." "The
Lebanese will always remain indebted to Kuwait, its Emir and people, for all
their support to Lebanon in the days of hardship and prosperity, and will
allow nothing to disturb the historical relationship and brotherhood ties
between the two countries," vowed Berri reassuringly.
PSP denounces attack against Kuwait and its Emir, deems
it reprehensible
Sat 15 Sep 2018/NNA - In an issued statement by the Progressive Socialist
Party's Media Office on Saturday, it condemned the "arrogant attack against
Kuwait and its Emir, the friend of Lebanon, Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah,"
considering such an act as "reprehensible."
"The policy of attacking Lebanon's friends is not new. It is a policy
plotted for years, with the aim of distorting their reputation and striking
their relationship with Lebanon," the statement indicated. It strongly
deplored the "cheap manner of some symbols of the yellow press and the
media," while recalling "the permanent support of the State of Kuwait and
its Emir to Lebanon in the most difficult circumstances, and its political,
moral and substantial assistance over the years, in addition to hosting
thousands of Lebanese families and providing them with work
opportunities."The Party urged the press to stop their "cheap and
destructive tactics" while expressing utmost respect and gratitude to the
Kuwait state, stressing on the "brotherly ties with the people, government
and Emir of Kuwait, and on preserving their mutual historic relations with
Lebanon and its people."
Jumblatt meets with Russian Ambassador in Clemenceau
Sat 15 Sep 2018/NNA - Progressive Socialist Party Chief, former Minister and
MP Walid Jumblatt, met at his Clemenceau residence this evening with Russian
Ambassador Alexander Zasypkin, with talks touching on the current situation
in Lebanon and the region.
MP Wael Abu Faour and the PSP Senior Official Halim Abu Fakhreddine also
attended the meeting.
Sayegh: Cabinet Formation Stalemate Encloses Greater
Problem
Kataeb.org/Saturday 15th September 2018/Kataeb's Deputy-President Salim
Sayegh on Saturday warned that the delay in the Cabinet formation could
enclose dangerous signs, saying that the failure to form a government
swiftly will entail negative repercussions on the country.
"Danger goes beyond the formation of the government. There is a double
mission that needs to be accomplished: adressing the economic situation and
find a way to bring Hezbollah back from Syria," he said in an interview on
Future TV. Sayegh warned of attempts to use the government formation as a
platform to dash and distort the Taef agreement, and, therefore, force a
non-constitutional re-examination of prerogatives. "The problem is that each
faction is trying to exercise leverage over the other. This would lead to an
endless crisis." Sayegh stressed that the country cannot be built on
corruption and wrongdoings, noting that what Lebanon is currently witnessing
goes against the aspirations and ideas of late President Bachir Gemayel.
Zeaiter denies all tweets about cow ship issue
Sat 15 Sep 2018/NNA - Caretaker Agriculture Minister Ghazi Zeaiter
categorically denied in a statement on Saturday all tweets pertaining to the
cow ship issue, saying, "It seems that straining the atmosphere has become
the hobby of some Twitter users among citizens and officials."
"The Ministry of Agriculture is keen on the Lebanese people's health and
wellbeing against the anthrax, regardless of its source," stressed Zeaiter,
regretting the spread of such groundless, false news.
Hankache Renews Call for Rescue Government
Kataeb.org/Saturday 15th September 2018/Kataeb MP Elias Hankache renewed his
call for a small-scale rescue government that would manage the country until
political consensus is reached on a larger Cabinet, ruling out an imminent
breakthrough due to the ongoing wrangle over ministerial shares."We were
promised that the first government in the new presidential term would be up
to the challenges. However, there are still no signs indicating any
progress," he said in an interview on the Australia-based 2ME Radio Arabic.
Hankache stressed the need for political forces to make concessions, adding
that political gains become worthless when the whole country is in jeopardy.
The lawmaker also noted that the government formation stalemate proves that
all the alliances sealed before the elections were transient and fake,
stressing that this is the reason why the Kataeb party chose to run for the
polls alone.
Prosecution Highlights Hezbollah, Syrian Links to Hariri Assassination
حنين غدار من موقع معهد واشنطن: الإدعاء في المحكمة الدولية الناظرة في اغتيال
رفيق الحريري تسلط الضوء على دور إيران وحزب الله في جريمة الإغتيال
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/September 15/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/67492/hanin-ghaddar-the-washington-institute-prosecution-highlights-hezbollah-syrian-links-to-hariri-assassination-%D8%AD%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%BA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%88%D9%82%D8%B9/
This week’s closing arguments laid out the clear connections
between the plotters, senior Hezbollah figures, and the Assad regime, so the
international community can no longer afford to look the other way.
Thirteen years after former prime minister Rafiq Hariri was assassinated by
a car bomb in Beirut, the prosecution finally submitted its closing
arguments in the Special Tribunal for Lebanon earlier this week, with two
important disclosures. One, there is ample evidence to corroborate the link
between Hezbollah’s leadership and the perpetrators of the killing,
including details on their movements and communications ahead of the attack.
Two, the Syrian regime was also at the core of the plot.
THE HEZBOLLAH CONNECTION
The closing arguments (released online as two PDFs, see part 1 and part 2)
focused on the group’s links to the four accused, Salim Jamil Ayyash, Hassan
Habib Merhi, Assad Hassan Sabra, and Hussein Hassan Oneissi. According to
the prosecutor, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly
acknowledged this connection, including the fact that the covert Green
Network used by the defendants was in fact part of the Hezbollah security
apparatus.
Telecom data was the main evidence used to prove these links, coupled with
the political context of the time and the political affiliation of the
accused. In all, the prosecution examined more than 3,000 pieces of evidence
and 307 witness testimonies before concluding that the February 2005 attack
was executed as part of a sophisticated, multifaceted mission that could
only have been the product of a conspiracy.
One of the main advances the prosecution has made is in showing how Hariri’s
movements were under surveillance during and after his famous December 2004
visit to Nasrallah in the Beirut suburb of Haret Hreik—this despite the fact
that neither Hariri nor his security team knew the location of the meeting
beforehand. Yet this week’s most striking revelation was the reference to
Hezbollah security chief Wafiq Safa, who apparently served as the group’s
link with the Syrian regime. According to the prosecutor, Safa “formed part
of a call flow with [senior Hezbollah military official Mustafa] Badreddine
and Ayyash that immediately preceded the final preparatory activity in the
early hours of the morning of the attack.” And on the eve of the
assassination, Safa and Badreddine’s phones converged in the same area. In
addition, Ayyash coordinated with Badreddine on conducting preoperational
surveillance of Hariri and purchasing the Mitsubishi Canter van used to
perpetrate the bombing.
THE SYRIAN CONNECTION
Rustum Ghazaleh, the head of Syrian military intelligence in Lebanon at the
time, visited Haret Hreik often and was in regular touch with Safa, and the
prosecution argued that this activity began under very specific
circumstances: after the February 2005 Lebanese opposition meeting at the
Bristol Hotel in Beirut, where participants demanded an end to Syria’s
military occupation. The report noted that Ghazaleh’s visits and Hezbollah
contacts formed part of a pattern of behavior immediately following key
challenges to Syrian control in Lebanon, and immediately prior to Hariri’s
assassination that same month.
“When put in context with these events,” the prosecution concluded, “the
rationale and motivation behind the behavior of the networks becomes
evident.” Indeed, the motives and actions of Syrian and Hezbollah officials
were intimately connected at the time, and the corresponding reaction of
covert networks involved in the plot reinforces the conclusion that they
were operated by a single entity, coordinated by the accused and overseen by
Badreddine.
NEXT STEPS
Although the final verdict is not expected for another five to six months,
the revelations in the prosecutor’s closing arguments should not be taken
lightly by Lebanon or the international community. If found guilty by the
tribunal for killing a prime minister, Hezbollah will be regarded as a
criminal organization by countries worldwide. This includes European
governments, which will find it more difficult to deal with Hezbollah’s
“political wing” if an international court officially determines that its
parent organization carried out the assassination. In fact, such a finding
should finally spur them to designate Hezbollah in its entirety as a
terrorist organization rather than perpetuating the untenable “wings”
approach.
Likewise, international relations with Lebanon’s state institutions will
become highly problematic if Hezbollah remains part of the government. In
2004, UN Security Council Resolution 1559 called on Syria to withdraw its
forces and cease interfering in Lebanon’s internal politics. Although
Damascus largely complied with that requirement, the second part of the
resolution—which calls on all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias to
disband—has yet to be implemented. Other long-postponed requirements were
issued in Resolution 1701, which called for border demarcation between Syria
and Lebanon.
Perhaps sensing potential progress on these fronts, Nasrallah warned the
tribunal and its backers not to “play with fire” in an August 27 address.
Whenever Hezbollah makes such threats, decisionmakers inside and outside
Lebanon tend to give the group what it wants for fear of causing local
instability. There are numerous examples of this appeasement, such as the
electoral law that facilitated the victory of Hezbollah’s camp in this
year’s parliamentary elections, or the events of May 2008, when the group
used its weapons against other Lebanese citizens and wound up with a
national unity government and the Doha agreement.
This time, however, the charges against Hezbollah will be coming from an
international entity, and foreign governments should deal with them
forthrightly rather than ducking them. The United States and other countries
need not be cowed by the specter of instability—on the contrary, allowing
Hezbollah to get away with Hariri’s murder would only agitate sectarian
tensions, the true driver of instability across the region.
Specifically, Washington and European governments should be prepared to
delay their acceptance of any new Lebanese government that includes
Hezbollah figures, particularly in the security realm. They should also
question Beirut about any perceived Hezbollah influence on these decisions.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri needs strong, united international support to
resist the group’s intimidation. To protect Lebanese state institutions,
Hezbollah must be kept at a distance, and this requires close coordination.
Finally, the revelations about Syria’s role in the assassination should put
an end to the notion that Bashar al-Assad can be part of his country’s
political future. Even if Western and Arab governments were willing to
overlook his brutal actions against his own people, there must be
consequences for his regime being legally implicated in the killing of a
foreign political leader.
**Hanin Ghaddar, a veteran Lebanese journalist and researcher, is the
Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute.
The Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News
published
on
September 15-16/18
US Democrats to
Palestinians: We Won’t Fight Your War”
DEBKAfile/September 15/18
A Palestinian bid to harness their case against President Donald Trump to
the US Democrats’ midterm election campaign was spurned, DEBKAfile reports
exclusively. “Operation Democratic Party” was launched at secret sessions
led by Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) at his
Ramallah headquarters with military precision. These sessions took place
during recent weeks, before Trump landed his final blow on Friday, Sept. 14,
by shutting down the last US $10 million allocation, this one dedicated to
an Israeli-Palestinian friendship program. He left in place only the part
for promoting relations between Israeli Arabs and Israel Jews.
For Operation Democratic Party, Abbas had assigned Palestinian officials
with individually approaching any contacts they had developed with
Democratic Party big shots with a proposition to target Trump’s
ill-treatment of the Palestinians in their midterm election campaigns. The
list was compiled by Husam Zomlot , head of the PLO’s Washington office,
Foreign Minister Riad al-Malaki and senior negotiator Saeb Erekat.
Palestinian PR experts were optimistic: American public opinion was sure to
rally behind the Palestinians after Trump’s outrageous treatment of the past
five months, including the shutdown of the PLO consulate in Washington and
the cancellation of the $450 million allocation to UNWRA. Trump’s envoys
Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt accused the agency of perpetuating the
Palestinian refugee problem and allowing it to blow up ten times more than
the original figure on its watch. And, even worse, the two envoys’
recommended setting aside the Palestinian claim for a fully-independent
state and offering them semi-independent status in confederation with Jordan
instead.
Abbas and his advisers had no doubt that the Democrats would buy these
affronts as
fodder for their campaigns against their Republican rivals. DEBKAfile’s
sources report that the Palestinian lobbyists went straight to the top,
making direct calls to Senate minority leader Jack Schumer, House minority
leader Nancy Pelosi, former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders,
Democratic senior Senator Elizabeth Warren, as well as other influential
party figures, such as President Bill Clinton and associates of Secretary
John Kerry. They calculated that, even if the Democratic party per se
declined to make their cause a central platform issue, at least one or two
high-profile figures would adopt it.
They were in for a rude shock. All the candidates came back with the same
negative response. After careful consideration, the Democratic party had
concluded that there was no place for the Palestinian cause in their
election campaigns because it did not reverberate with the American voter as
a noteworthy issue. The party would not fight Trump and the Republican party
over the Palestinians, because, they said: “It is not up to us to fight your
war.”Left high and dry by their last resort, the Palestinians threaten to
turn to the UN, the International Criminal Court in the Hague or the
Europeans, but they also realize they have run out of practical options for
making up the US aid shortfall and keeping the wolf from the door in
Ramallah.
Defying Dangers, Idlib Residents Protest
against Assad
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 September, 2018/In cities and towns across
Syria's last opposition-held province, Idlib, residents poured into the
streets on Friday to demonstrate against Bashar Assad's regime in defiance
of an expected offensive to retake the territory.
In the provincial capital, Idlib city, and in towns including Kafranbel,
Dana, Azaz, Maaret al-Numan and al-Bab, demonstrators filled the streets
after noon prayers and chanted against Assad, raising the tri-color green,
white and black flag that has become the banner of Syria's 2011 uprising,
activists said. "The rebels are our hope; Turks are our brothers; the
terrorists are Bashar, Hezbollah and Russia," read a banner carried by
residents in the village of Kneiset Bani Omar, referring to Turkey which
backs the opposition, and Lebanon's “Hezbollah” and Russia that have joined
the war along with Assad's forces. "There will be no solution in Syria
without Assad's fall," read another banner carried in the northern village
of Mhambel, reported The Associated Press. The demonstrations were reported
on the activist-run sites Aleppo Media Center, Orient News, and other social
media pages. Fridays have become the customary day for protests throughout
the Arab world since the 2011 uprisings that swept through the region.
Wissam Zarqa, a university teacher in Idlib, said demonstrators were flying
the tri-color flag to rebut the regime line that Idlib is dominated by the
al-Qaida linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group. The province, population 3
million, is now the final shelter for close to 1.5 million displaced Syrians
that fled fighting in other parts of Syria. Many say they will not return to
regime-ruled areas. Regime and Russian forces bombed towns and villages in
the province earlier this week, killing more than a dozen civilians and
damaging two hospitals. But the strikes eased on Wednesday amid talks
between the opposition's main regional sponsor Turkey, and Russia and
Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart
Vladimir Putin are slated to meet Monday, said Turkish Foreign Minister
Mevlut Cavusoglu. "We will continue our efforts with Iran and with Russia.
... (and) on international platforms as well," said Cavusoglu in comments
carried live on Turkish television. Turkish media said the two leaders would
meet in the Russian city of Sochi. Turkey has warned strongly against
military action, saying it would trigger a humanitarian catastrophe. Its
military and defense chiefs visited border areas on Friday to inspect troop
reinforcements sent to its Hatay and Gaziantep provinces. Turkey has 12
military posts inside Idlib province, and activists reported on Thursday
that Turkish reinforcements crossed over into Syria to fortify the
installations.The United Nations said that in the first 12 days of
September, over 30,000 people have been internally displaced by an intense
aerial bombing campaign. Most of the displaced headed toward the border with
Turkey, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs, packing already overcrowded camps there. The UN's World Food
Program said it, alongside partners, were already delivering monthly food
rations for nearly 600,000 people. It said it was prepared to deliver
emergency food assistance for up to 1 million people. Save The Children said
in a statement that it will continue to support extensive humanitarian
programs through Syrian partner organizations in the country's northwest. It
added that this includes running primary healthcare clinics and a maternity
hospital, vaccination and food security programs, supporting a network of
schools and carrying out child protection work. "One million children are
trapped in Idlib facing what could be the greatest humanitarian catastrophe
in the long and bloody history of Syria's seven-year war," said Syria
Response Advocacy Manager Caroline Anning.
Time Limit of Few Weeks to Dissolve HTS in Syria’s Idlib
Moscow - Ankara - Raed Jabr and Saeed Abdelrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday,
15 September, 2018/Pressure exerted by western countries and Turkey on
Russia seems to have deferred a looming offensive by the Moscow-backed
Syrian regime on the province of Idlib and allowed Ankara to dissolve Hay’at
Tahrir al-Sham HTS within weeks. Turkey fears that a wide-range regime
attack on Idlib, which has a population of 3 million people, could cause a
new wave of exodus towards its territories. Media reports said Friday that
Ankara has sent reinforcements, especially armored vehicles, to the border
with Syria and to observations points it has lately established in the north
of the country. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian
counterpart Vladimir Putin will meet next Monday in Russia’s Black Sea
resort of Sochi to review the situation in Idlib. "I believe an offensive,
if there will be one, will not come before several weeks," a senior Turkish
official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity. Erdogan had met with
Putin and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani in Tehran on September 7 to discuss Syria
and prevent regime forces from attacking Idlib. However, Erdogan and Putin
failed to agree on the main strategy to solve the crisis in the province.
Ankara fiercely opposes a military option in the northwest of its
neighboring country. Meanwhile, UN special envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura
met Friday with the so-called "small group" of allied nations, including
members from Egypt, France, Germany, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United
Kingdom. The meeting came two days following similar talks held between the
UN envoy and representatives from the there guarantor countries - Russia,
Turkey and Iran. De Mistura is expected to inform the UN Security Council
next Tuesday about the results of his latest talks with parties concerned
with the Syrian crisis.
Turkey-Russia Discord
over Idlib Defers Regime Offensive, for Now
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 15/18/Disagreement between
Turkey and Russia over how to tackle the Syrian rebel stronghold of Idlib
seems to have deferred a looming regime offensive on the province, analysts
say. Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides of the conflict, but key global
allies. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Russian and Iranian
leaders Vladimir Putin and Hassan Rouhani in Tehran on September 7 to
discuss Syria, just as a major assault by Russia-backed regime forces on
Idlib appeared imminent.
But discord at the summit between Erdogan and Putin, in a rare scene
captured on camera, may have prompted Russia to postpone the Idlib strike so
as not to provoke Ankara, which is fiercely opposed to a military option. "I
believe an offensive, if there will be one, will not come before several
weeks," a senior Turkish official told AFP, speaking on condition of
anonymity. Turkey, which backs rebels fighting against President Bashar
al-Assad's regime, co-sponsors -- with regime allies Russia and Iran -- the
so-called Astana talks launched in January 2017 in the quest for a lasting
ceasefire. To date, the dialogue has resulted in the creation of four
pre-ceasefire "de-escalation zones" in Syria, including in Idlib. Idlib is
the last major opposition stronghold in the war-torn country. Sixty percent
of the area is controlled by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) jihadist group,
an al-Qaeda branch operating in Syria. Intense negotiations have taken place
between Turkey and Russia since the failure of the Tehran summit, to hammer
out a compromise in a bid to avert an assault which Erdogan has cautioned
would ignite a "bloodbath".Such a compromise could include neutralising the
HTS -- officially designated as a terror group by Ankara. Erdogan and Putin
are expected to discuss the issue when they meet in the Russian resort city
of Sochi on Monday.
- Compromise formula -For Turkey, the stakes are high. Ankara fears a
large-scale assault on Idlib, which lies on its southern border, could
trigger a massive flow of refugees onto its soil. Turkey is already home to
more than three million Syrians who have fled the conflict.
Abdul Wahab Assi, an analyst at the Syria-based Jusoor Studies Centre, said
disagreements at the Tehran summit "rule out a possible offensive in the
short run, at least until the end of the year."He said a possible compromise
from the ongoing talks could take the form of a "limited military operation
or surgical strikes" targeting the HTS, or modifying the borders of the
de-escalation zones to keep armed rebels from certain sectors. Russia may be
open to such a plan, Assi said, as long as it would secure the Idlib section
of the Aleppo-Damascus highway and put an end to drone attacks launched from
Idlib against Moscow's main military base of Hmeimim in the neighbouring
province of Latakia. Some three million people live in Idlib province and
adjacent areas, the United Nations says, around half of whom have already
fled their homes in other parts of Syria. Regime forces and Russian
warplanes resumed airstrikes on Idlib in September but the strikes fell in
intensity this week. Turkish 'defensive' reinforcements -Turkish media
reported Ankara has sent reinforcements, including tanks, to beef up its
border with Syria and its observation posts in Idlib. Turkish military
analyst Metin Gurcan, judges these measures to be of a "defensive" nature,
aimed at protecting Turkish observation posts against any possible threat.
Gurcan said the lack of an agreement with Ankara could push Moscow, and thus
the Syrian regime, to stage an "incremental operation that will last months"
rather than a full-fledged attack. "Russia is trying to keep Ankara in the
game," he told AFP, saying any confrontation between the two countries was
"highly unlikely." "Moscow needs Turkey as a Sunni power to balance Shiite
militias' presence in northern Syria," he said.
Halbousi Elected as Iraq’s Parliament
Speaker
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 September, 2018/The Iraqi parliament elected
Anbar province’s former governor Mohammed al-Halbousi as speaker on
Saturday, marking the first step towards establishing the new government
four months after national elections.
Parliament was due to elect a speaker and two deputies during its first
meeting on Sept 3, but failed to do so as lawmakers were still trying to
determine which competing bloc had the most seats. Lawmaker Ahmed al-Asadi
said 169 MPs voted for Halbousi during the session and 89 voted for former
defense minister Khalid al-Obeidi. Iraq's parliament contains 329 seats.
Announcing the vote, the temporary leader of the assembly said Halbousi, 37,
had become the youngest speaker of parliament in Iraq's history. In his
first statement following his election, Halbousi vowed to hold onto the
fight against terrorism. Before running in May's national elections, he was
the governor of Anbar province. He had previously served in Iraq's
parliament from 2014 to 2017.
Egyptian Court Orders Arrest of Mubarak's Sons in
Corruption Case
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 September, 2018/An Egyptian criminal court
ordered the arrest of ousted President Hosni Mubarak's two sons on charges
of stock market manipulation, state news agency MENA reported Saturday. Alaa
and Gamal Mubarak, with seven other men, are accused of violating stock
market and central bank rules to make unlawful profits through dealing in
shares of Al Watany Bank of Egypt. Three other men including Yasser El
Mallawany and Hassan Heikal, were also arrested. All those accused in the
case, which began in 2012, had been released on bail and barred from travel.
Mubarak’s eldest son, Alaa, is a businessman, and Gamal is a former banker.
The pair had been free since 2015. The court's next session is set for Oct.
20.
Egypt Arrests 6 'Brotherhood' Members in Foiled
Alexandria Terrorist Plot
Cairo - Waleed Abdul Rahman/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15
September, 2018/Egyptian security forces have foiled a terrorist plot by
arresting six members of the "Muslim Brotherhood", which is labeled by Egypt
as a terrorist organization, in the city of Alexandria, a security source
said. The source explained that National Security arrested the terrorists
during a raid on a housing unit where they had met to plot attacks. He
pointed out that the security services confiscated a number of documents,
books of the group’s leading member Sayyid Qutb and two computers. The
terrorists were planning to target state institutions, aiming to create
chaos in the country, added the source. Several security sources indicated
that the detainees confessed they were assigned by the group’s fugitive
leaders to conduct several terrorist operations. Expert on fundamentalist
movements in Egypt Amr Abdel Moneim noted that terrorists were planning to
create chaos in Egypt backed by the group's leaders abroad. Moneim told
Asharq Al-Awsat that Brotherhood members want to send a message to the world
that terrorist organizations are still operational in Egypt. He praised the
preemptive measures of the security services and their efforts in uncovering
terrorist plots. The Egyptian committee on terrorist funds had previously
frozen the funds of a number of Brotherhood leaders, including businessmen.
Sources confirmed to the committee that several of the group’s leaders and
commanders are mulling new ways to manage the organization’s financial
resources, including funding their armed movement. The investigations
conducted with the detainees showed that they used their social media
profiles to instigate against state institutions and to promote rumors and
false news, the security source said. Preliminary investigations revealed
that the terrorists held their meetings in a remote location in Alexandria
to plot for several attacks. They face charges of belonging to an unlawful
group, preventing state institutions from carrying out their duties, and
engaging in incidents that disturb public security and threaten social
peace.
Qatar Ends Support for Hamas Educational Institution in
Gaza
Gaza /Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 September, 2018/Qatar has stopped its
support for a Gaza educational institution affiliated to the Palestinian
Hamas movement. Palestinian sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Doha had
ceased its aid to Dar al-Arqam school over four months ago for reason that
are yet to be revealed. Qatar has been gradually decreasing its support for
the institution for less than a year and the aid came to a complete stop
some four months ago. Hamas and other concerned sides attempted to garner
aid through other means, but from the same source, meaning Qatar, added the
sources. These attempts, however, failed. It revealed that the school was
being supported by a Qatari institution that had ended all of its activities
in Gaza at the end of August. Dar al-Arqam provides an education to hundreds
of students who are relatives of “Palestinian martyrs.”Other sources
explained that Qatar is concerned that its funding of the school could be
linked to its support for terrorism.
Trump, Pompeo Bash
Ex-Secretary of State Kerry on Iran Talks
Associated Press/Naharnet/September 15/18/Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has
unloaded on his Obama-era predecessor John Kerry for "actively undermining"
U.S. policy on Iran by meeting several times recently with the Iranian
foreign minister, who was his main interlocutor in the Iran nuclear deal
negotiations. In unusually blunt and caustic language, Pompeo said Friday
that Kerry's meetings with Mohammad Javad Zarif were "unseemly and
unprecedented" and "beyond inappropriate." President Donald Trump had late
Thursday accused Kerry of holding "illegal meetings with the very hostile
Iranian Regime, which can only serve to undercut our great work to the
detriment of the American people."Pompeo said he would leave "legal
determinations to others" but slammed Kerry as a former secretary of state
for engaging with "the world's largest state-sponsor of terror" and telling
Iran to "wait out this administration." He noted that just this week
Iranian-backed militias had fired rockets at U.S. diplomatic compounds in
Iraq. "You can't find precedent for this in U.S. history, and Secretary
Kerry ought not to engage in that kind of behavior," an agitated Pompeo told
reporters at the State Department. "It's inconsistent with what foreign
policy of the United States is as directed by this president, and it is
beyond inappropriate for him to be engaged." Kerry, who is promoting his new
book "Every Day is Extra," tweeted a response to Trump that referred to the
president's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, who agreed on Friday to
cooperate with the special counsel's investigation into Russia interference
in the 2016 presidential election and possible coordination between Russia
and the Trump campaign. "Mr. President, you should be more worried about
Paul Manafort meeting with Robert Mueller than me meeting with Iran's FM.
But if you want to learn something about the nuclear agreement that made the
world safer, buy my new book," said Kerry. He has been harshly critical of
the president and his decision in May to withdraw from the Iran deal but
denies "coaching" Tehran.
In a statement, his spokesman, Matt Summers, said: "There's nothing unusual,
let alone unseemly or inappropriate, about former diplomats meeting with
foreign counterparts. Secretary (Henry) Kissinger has done it for decades
with Russia and China. What is unseemly and unprecedented is for the podium
of the State Department to be hijacked for political theatrics."
Pompeo also took to task former Energy Secretary Earnest Moniz and ex-Iran
deal negotiator Wendy Sherman for joining Kerry at a meeting with Zarif and
other Iranian officials earlier this year at a security conference in Munich
— though Sherman said Friday she wasn't with Kerry and Moniz when she met
Zarif there. Along with Kerry, Moniz and Sherman played key roles in
negotiating the 2015 agreement between Iran and several world powers that
lifted sanctions against Tehran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear
program. "I wasn't in the meeting, but I am reasonably confident that he was
not there in support of U.S. policy with respect to the Islamic Republic of
Iran," Pompeo said. "Former secretaries of state — all of them, from either
political party — ought not to be engaged in" this kind of activity, he
said. "Actively undermining U.S. policy as a former secretary of state is
literally unheard of." Meetings between a private U.S. citizen and foreign
official are not against the law and not necessarily inappropriate or a
violation of federal regulations, but Trump, Pompeo and several GOP
lawmakers say they are evidence Kerry and former Obama administration
officials are trying to subvert Trump's hard line on Iran. "John Kerry had
illegal meetings with the very hostile Iranian Regime, which can only serve
to undercut our great work to the detriment of the American people," Trump
tweeted late Thursday. "He told them to wait out the Trump Administration!
Was he registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act? BAD!"The law
Trump invoked — the Foreign Agents Registration Act, or FARA — requires
registration and transparency by people or companies acting on behalf of
foreign governments, political parties or individuals. But Josh Rosenstein,
a partner with the Washington law firm Sandler Reiff and a specialist in
lobbying compliance, said there are too many unanswered questions to know
whether the law applies to Kerry's interactions with Zarif. FARA's
provisions don't extend to activities conducted entirely overseas, so where
Kerry interacted with him matters. Also unclear is whether any Iranians
specifically asked Kerry for advice."The devil's always in the details,"
Rosenstein said. "Simply offering advice to a foreign government doesn't
make you a foreign agent."When reports of Kerry's ex-officio contacts with
Zarif first surfaced in May, Trump tweeted similar thoughts. "John Kerry
can't get over the fact that he had his chance and blew it! Stay away from
negotiations John, you are hurting your country!" he said on May 8. A day
earlier, he tweeted: "The United States does not need John Kerry's possibly
illegal Shadow Diplomacy on the very badly negotiated Iran Deal. He was the
one that created this MESS in the first place!"
Trump and Pompeo's criticism came after Kerry told conservative radio host
Hugh Hewitt on Wednesday that earlier reports of his meetings with Zarif
were correct: They had met three or four times since Kerry left office but
not since Pompeo took the job in April. One of those meetings took place in
Oslo, Norway, and another in Munich, he said. A third is reported to have
occurred at the United Nations headquarters, which is not technically on
U.S. soil. Kerry told Hewitt that he was not coaching the Iranians on how to
deal with the Trump administration. "That's not my job, and my coaching him
would not, you know, that's not how it works," he said in the interview.
"What I have done is tried to elicit from him (Zarif) what Iran might be
willing to do in order to change the dynamic in the Middle East for the
better."
Pompeo: US studying sanction waivers against entities dealing with Iran
AFP, Washington/Saturday, 15 September 2018/The United States is
still studying possible waivers of sanctions against countries or businesses
that continue commerce with Iran after November 4, Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo said on Friday. At the same time he maintained the US
administration's firm position toward Tehran, which Washington accuses of
interference throughout the Middle East. To the dismay of other signatories,
Trump in May announced his pullout from the hard-won 2015 international
accord under which Tehran agreed to limit its nuclear capacities in exchange
for relief from crippling economic sanctions. Trump said the deal failed to
block all paths to an Iranian nuclear bomb, and reimposed sanctions.
These included secondary penalties against businesses or foreign countries
which continue commerce with Iran. Those firms must now choose between their
investments in Iran and their access to the US market. Washington gave them
some time to pull out, leaving the latest sanctions related to financial
transactions and petroleum to take effect after November 4. "There are still
a number of decisions pending before the November 4th deadline that we gotta
make about waivers, potential waivers," Pompeo told a news conference.
Washington wants all countries to halt oil imports from Iran before November
4 if they want to avoid US penalties. Certain waivers have not been
excluded, however, notably for India which depends heavily on Iranian
petroleum. Responding to a question, Pompeo said he did not know if
sanctions would hit managers of Swift, the international financial messaging
system, if they continue to deal with Iran. "Come November 4th, there will
be a fundamentally different set of rules" regarding "anyone who deems it
necessary to engage in economic activity with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
It is a big important day," Pompeo said. He underlined that many countries
had already begun to disengage themselves. The European Union, which
continues to back the Iran nuclear accord, has tried unsuccessfully to
obtain widespread waivers and many of its bigger companies have already
pulled out of the country for fear of US penalties.
Iran in late August opened a lawsuit at the International Court of Justice,
demanding the suspension of the renewed US financial penalties which it says
are devastating its economy.
The Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
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September 15-16/18
EU to Hold Tripoli
Ceasefire Violators Accountable
Khaled Mahmoud /Asharq Al-Awsat/September,15/18
The US administration and the European Union are fully supporting the
Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli against the 7th Brigade, one
of the rival militias to accept a cease-fire truce, despite European threats
to hold anyone accountable in case of violation again.
Meanwhile, France and Italy are still debating over the possibility of
holding parliamentary and presidential elections before the end of this
year, coinciding with the imposition of UN Security Council and US sanctions
on former leader of the Petroleum Facilities Guard Ibrahim al-Jadhran. On
Thursday, head of GNA Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj met with Charge
d’Affaires for the US Department of State's Libya External Office, Donald
Blome, and AFRICOM Commander Gen. Thomas Waldhauser to discuss the security
situation in Tripoli and US-Libya cooperation. US officials asserted their
support of efforts to achieve lasting stability in Libya through the UN
Action Plan and reaffirmed support to GNA.
Discussion centered on GNA efforts to restore public security as outlined in
the UN-brokered ceasefire and new measures to improve economic conditions
for all Libyans through the economic reforms announced on September 12.
They commended the GNA for its response to the ISIS attack on the National
Oil Corporation on September 10, and both sides agreed on the importance of
close and continued engagement to ensure that sovereign state institutions
are able to fulfill their mandate on behalf of all Libyans.
Meanwhile, EU issued a statement on Thursday warning that any violation of
the ceasefire, such as the rocket attacks against Maitiga airport, as well
as inflammatory statements that may lead to more violence, are unacceptable.
Furthermore, attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure constitute
violations of international law.
“Now is the time for real change – ending predation of Libyan resources and
a climate of fear and at last guaranteeing the Libyan people the basic
services and individual freedoms they aspire to. The terrorist attack on 10
September against the Headquarters of the National Oil Corporation, a vital
institution for the Libyan people, further highlighted the urgency for all
Libyan parties to come together and overcome this spiral of violence and
daily deprivation,” read the statement.
The statement asserted that EU and its Member States will remain tireless
partners in building Libya’s stability through democratically elected
institutions, accountable security bodies, an independent judiciary, the
rule of law, and transparent management of national wealth.
“We reaffirm our strong and continued support to the United Nations action
plan to advance the political process. We will also continue to support the
Libyan people, in particular the most vulnerable, through humanitarian aid
and development projects across Libya in partnership with Libyan
authorities, UN agencies and civil society,” concluded the EU.
Meanwhile, Italian Foreign Minister Enzo Moavero Milanesi said on Wednesday
his country strongly disagrees with French President Emmanuel Macron’s push
for early elections in December. Media outlets reported that Milanesi told
the parliamentary foreign committees that Italy disagrees with the French
government, “which is still pushing for Libya to hold elections on December
10.” The set date must be “reconsidered” until conditions are in place for
free, fair and peaceful elections, he continued, adding that he did not wish
to “quarrel with France” and that he and his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le
Drian shared “some common ground” on the Libyan crisis. The FM also
announced that Italy wants to organise a conference on Libya in Sicily in
the first half of November. He explained Rome wanted to set up the
conference there "symbolically", in a "land that means to symbolism the hand
outstretched over the Mediterranean".In other news, Libya's National Oil
Corporation (NOC) welcomed on Wednesday the decision of the UN Security
Council to impose sanctions on Ibrahim Jathran.
UNSC on Tuesday decided to impose sanctions on Jathran, which include travel
ban and freezing of assets.
Greece: "Humanitarian
Aid" Organization's People-Smuggling
Maria Polizoidou/Gatestone Institute/September 15, 2018
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/12960/greece-people-smuggling
Emergency Response Centre International (ERCI) describes itself as a "Greek
nonprofit organization that provides emergency response and humanitarian aid
in times of crisis...." It has reportedly abetted the illegal entry into
Greece of 70,000 immigrants since 2015, providing the "nonprofit" with half
a billion euros per year. ECRI evidently received 2,000 euros from each
illegal immigrant it helped to enter Greece. In addition, its members
created a business for "integrating refugees" into Greek society, granting
it 5,000 euros per immigrant per year from various government programs (in
education, housing and nutrition). With the government of Greece seemingly
at a loss as to how to handle its refugee crisis and safeguard the security
of its citizens, it is particularly dismaying to discover that the major NGO
whose mandate is to provide humanitarian aid to immigrants is instead
profiting from smuggling them. Migrants arrive at a beach on the Greek
island of Kos after crossing part of the Aegean sea from Turkey in a rubber
dinghy, on August 15, 2015. (Photo by Milos Bicanski/Getty Images)
On August 28, thirty members of the Greek NGO Emergency Response Centre
International (ERCI) were arrested for their involvement in a
people-smuggling network that has been operating on the island of Lesbos
since 2015. According to a statement released by Greek police, as a result
of the investigation that led to the arrests, "The activities of an
organised criminal network that systematically facilitated the illegal entry
of foreigners were fully exposed."
Among the activities uncovered were forgery, espionage and the illegal
monitoring of both the Greek coastguard and the EU border agency, Frontex,
for the purpose of gleaning confidential information about Turkish refugee
flows. The investigation also led to the discovery of an additional six
Greeks and 24 foreign nationals implicated in the case.
ERCI describes itself as:
"[A] Greek nonprofit organization that provides emergency response and
humanitarian aid in times of crisis. ERCI's philosophy is to identify the
gaps of humanitarian aid and step in to assist in the most efficient and
impactful manner. Currently ERCI has 4 active programs working with refugees
in Greece in the areas of Search and Rescue, Medical, Education and Refugee
Camp Coordination."
In spite of its stated mission and non-profit profile, however, ECRI --
according to Greek authorities, has earned considerable sums of money from
its serving as a conduit for illegal activities. ECRI evidently received
2,000 euros from each illegal immigrant it helped to enter Greece. In
addition, its members created a business for "integrating refugees" into
Greek society, granting it 5,000 euros per immigrant per year from various
government programs (in education, housing and nutrition). ERCI has
reportedly abetted the illegal entry into Greece of 70,000 immigrants since
2015, providing the "non-profit" with half a billion euros per year.
This revelation, however, does not begin to cover the extent of the illegal
activities surrounding the entry of migrants into Greece. In 2017, for
instance, Greek authorities arrested 1,399 people-smugglers, some under the
cover of "humanitarian" operations; and during the first four months of
2018, authorities arrested 25,594 illegal immigrants.
More worrisome than the literally steep price paid to people-smugglers by
the immigrants themselves -- or that doled out by the Greek government in
the form of integration subsidies -- is the toll the situation is taking on
Greek society as a whole.
According to Greek police statistics, there were 75,707 robberies and
burglaries reported in 2017. Of these cases only 15,048 were solved, and
4,207 were committed by aliens. In addition, the police estimate that more
than 40% of serious crimes were committed by illegal immigrants. (Legal and
illegal immigrants in Greece make up 10-15% of the total population.)
In 2016, Greek prisons reportedly contained 4,246 Greeks and 5,221
foreigners convicted of serious crimes: 336 for homicide; 101 for attempted
homicide; 77 for rape; and 635 for robbery. In addition, thousands of cases
are still pending trial.
In a recent heart-wrenching case on August 15, a 25-year-old college student
from Athens -- on a visit home from his studies at a university in Scotland
-- was murdered by three illegal immigrants while he was out touring the
city with a female friend from Portugal.
The three perpetrators, two Pakistanis and an Iraqi ranging in age from 17
to 28, told police that they first attacked the young woman, stealing money,
credit cards, a passport and a cell phone from her purse, but when they
realized that her phone was "old," they went for the young man's phone,
threatening him with a knife. When he tried to fend them off, they said in
their confession, they shoved him and he fell off a cliff to his death.
After the interrogation, it transpired that the three killers were wanted
for 10 additional robberies in the area.
In an angry letter to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, members of
parliament and the mayor of Athens, the mother of the victim accused Tsipras
of "criminal negligence" and "complicity" in her son's murder.
Instead of welcoming and providing "land and water" to every criminal and
dangerous individual with savage instincts," she wrote, "should the state
not think first of the safety of its own citizens, whose blood it drinks
daily [economically]? [Should the state] abandon [its citizens] to ravenous
gangs, for whom the worth of a human life has less meaning than the value of
a cell phone or a gold chain?"
Although those were the words of a grieving mother, they are sentiments
widely felt and expressed throughout Greece, where such incidents are
increasingly common.
On August 29, two weeks after that murder, six immigrants in northern Greece
verbally assaulted a 52-year-old man on the street, apparently for no
reason. When he ignored them and kept walking, one of them stabbed him in
the shoulder blade with a 24-cm (9.4-inch) knife, landing him in the
hospital.
Two days earlier, on August 27, approximately 100 immigrants, protesting the
living conditions in their camp in Malakasa, blocked the National Highway
for more than three hours. Drivers stuck on the road said that some of the
protestors went on a rampage, bashing cars with blocks of wood. To make
matters worse, police on the scene said that they had not received
instructions from the Ministry of Citizen Protection to clear the highway or
protect the victims. Gatestone was told upon further queries, that there was
no official statement from the police or the ministry, just the drivers'
statements.
With the government of Greece seemingly at a loss as to how to handle its
migrant crisis and safeguard the security of its citizens, it is
particularly dismaying to discover that the major NGO whose mandate is to
provide humanitarian aid to immigrants is instead profiting from smuggling
them. The recent arrest of ERCI members underscores the need to scrutinize
all such organizations.
Maria Polizoidou, a reporter, broadcast journalist, and consultant on
international and foreign affairs, is based in Greece. She has a
post-graduate degree in "Geopolitics and Security Issues in the Islamic
complex of Turkey and Middle East" from the University of Athens.
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here
do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone
Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be
reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of
Gatestone Institute.
In Basra, is it a
revolution or a disaster?
Hazem al-Amin/Al Arabiya/September 15/18
“A revolution in Basra”. Is this enough to make us, we who got bloodied by
revolutions due to the extent of our attraction to them, rejoice? The
revolution there is against what? Corruption? What is corrupt and who is the
corrupt in Iraq? Who is the non-corrupt power that is supposed to turn the
revolution into a political condition? The Arab revolutions failed, with the
exception for Tunisia which had its own set of conditions that are not
available in all Arab countries. The revolutions in Syria, Yemen and Libya
failed. However, these revolutions had a clear opponent and their purposes
were also clear. Those meant to be overthrown were regimes led by a
dictator, a specific authority and corrupt relations.
In Iraq, none of these conditions seem to be prevailing. Who is the main
target of this revolution then? Is it Iran, or the sectarian forces? Nothing
is clear. In other words, the failure which Arab revolutions suffered from
is much worse in Iraq. It is for this reason that cheering for a “revolution
in Basra” is a sign of ignorance that we find ourselves being dragged to,
we, the worshippers of “peoples” and who stamp revolutions with integrity
while overlooking the civil wars that stand behind them.
Protestors attacked the Iranian consulate in Basra, thus it is a revolution
against Iranian influence! We thus have to further cheer for the
demonstrators! However, the city gave plenty of votes to Iran’s allies in
the parliamentary elections which were held months ago. The demonstrators
attacked security centers and government headquarters which are currently
headed by Haider al-Abadi, whom Iran does not want! Then how would this be
right, that the “revolution” in Basra is against Iran?
Those cheering for the “revolution” should ponder on the prospects of its
success and the political dispensation that may follow it. Let us imagine
that Basra’s revolution turns into a revolution in all of Iraq and
overthrows the authority! Is there any political or social power that can
replace the current authority? Is it outside the sectarian and national
scene that is dominating Iraq and distributing the spoils to the leaders of
the sects, clans and nationalities?
Those cheering for a ‘revolution in Basra’ should ponder on the prospects of
its success and the political dispensation that may follow it.
The Arab revolutions succeeded in overthrowing and threatening the regimes.
Even in Syria, people managed to say that they do not want this regime. The
major problem is the failure of these societies and their inability to
produce political powers that can carry this change and turn it into a
“national” achievement. The Muslim Brotherhood was the horizon of failure in
most of the countries where revolutions happened, and this horizon, despite
its misery, is not even available in Iraq. The social and sectarian scene
there is of a different kind, and looking for a “Shiite Brotherhood” will
lead to the Dawa Party, which is in power right now. Thus it is illogical to
reinstate it after rebelling against it.
In 2005 in Lebanon, we got involved in what we thought to be a revolution
against the Syrian invasion. We got the Syrian army out and replaced it with
Hezbollah, after the sectarian leaders took control of our “revolution”.
Taking over revolutions is easier than starting them in the civil war
societies we live in. Rebelling against the corrupt and murderous authority
should be preceded by a revolution against social infrastructure, which has
been a partner in producing this authority.
The Dawa Party is a replacement of the Dawa Party in Iraq, just as the
General People's Congress was a replacement of the General People's Congress
in Yemen, or in best case Al-Islah (the Muslim Brotherhood) is the
alternative. In Syria too, Islamists came on top of the scene and
represented the alternative, hence, it became easier for the regime to end
the revolution, and something similar happened in Egypt.
We should slow down before cheering for the “revolution in Basra”. It is not
enough to hate the regime and realize the extent of its dependence and
corruption in order to believe in a revolution against it. What if the
conclusion of our thoughts is that the post-revolution regime will be worse
or that a massive civil war will erupt? Iraq needs to take major steps that
must precede the revolution as this is the way to prevent the revolution
from turning into a disaster.
Yemen peace talks: Houthis setting conditions on a
plane staircase
Amal Abdulaziz Al–Hazani/Al Arabiya/September 15/18
In August, United Nations envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths announced to the
world and the Security Council that consultations between the legitimate
Yemeni government and the putschists would be held in the first week of
September in Geneva to pave the way for a political solution and end the
armed conflict that has been ongoing since 2014. This was considered good
news and the UN envoy believed that it was the beginning of a success story
for his mission, as a representative of the international community between
the conflicting parties in Yemen.
Houthis did not turn up
The delegation representing legitimacy in Yemen arrived in Geneva along with
the representatives of the permanent members of the Security Council and the
representatives of 19 countries sponsoring the Gulf initiative, along with
Martin Griffiths who launched this initiative. Everyone was there but the
Houthis — the second party, as they were a no show. Griffiths tried until
the very last minute to contact the Houthis and persuade their delegation to
come to Geneva, but in vain. This is the fourth time that consultations are
being held between the two sides after Geneva 1, Geneva 2 in 2015 and Kuwait
in 2016.
The Houthis had given their word to the UN envoy that they were ready to
hold consultations. Griffiths was clear that no party would set its own
conditions during the consultations, and that each delegation would come to
consult without any preconditions, not even a cease-fire on the basis of a
temporary truce. That was the agreement and Griffiths was impatiently
looking forward to September. Unfortunately, the round of consultations
failed because of the absence of the Houthi party which justified its
absence with conditions that it made in the last hours.
Houthis gave their word to the UN envoy that they were ready to hold
consultations, but they did not turn up
These conditions were not made in August but they came as a chance which the
Houthis thought is suitable to apply pressure on the UN envoy and embarrass
him to press the delegation of the legitimate government to accept
conditions like not inspecting their aircraft and allowing them to use the
aircraft for medical evacuation of their wounded members to and from the
Sultanate of Oman. They also made repeated attempt to request the presence
of a Saudi and UAE delegation during the consultations.
In the beginning they said that the coalition in support of legitimacy did
not issue a permit for the plane that would take them to Geneva. It soon
turned out to be a lie and that the authorization was made at the request of
the United Nations. After that they put forward their conditions which they
knew in advance would not be accepted in terms of time and subject matter.
So why did the Houthis deliberately sabotage the Geneva talks? Why did they
attend the two sessions of Switzerland and the Kuwait talks which lasted 100
days, but did not attend this session?
Iran sanctions: The hidden factor
In fact, the problem of Yemen can be understood in the context of the
regional situation. The most important development in the past several
months in the region has been the turbulent situation in Iran, which is the
result of the re-imposition of US sanctions on it. It is an earthquake which
has consequences, of which the most important is influencing Iranian
activities in the region especially in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The
spokesman for the coalition forces in support the legitimacy, Colonel Turki
al-Malki said that the Houthis are tools in the hands of Iran.
This statement confirmed what is known as the Houthi Ansar Allah militia
takes orders from Qassim Soleimani, who has appointed himself a
representative of the Iranian regime in the Arab region. Every action taken
by the Houthis is an order from Tehran, including what happened at the
recent Geneva consultations which Tehran deliberately thwarted as a sign
that it controls the security of the region and to remind everyone that its
armed agents are on standby waiting for its orders, whatever the
international pressure on it or on its armed groups are and irrespective of
any economic restrictions on it.
Those blaming Griffiths for not holding the Houthis accountable for breaking
their promise to attend the Geneva talks do not realize the difficulty of
his mission in finding a common ground with the Houthis. Griffiths tried
diplomatically not to lose any party, as such he was resentful because of
the absence of the Houthis, but he showed his resentment secretly to the
delegation of legitimacy.
However, in front of the international media he was calm, and he was drawing
a plan with the Houthis so that the initiative does not collapse. This
reaction may be unsatisfactory to the legitimacy delegation that attended
and waited, but in reality it is the only reaction that will enable the
international envoy to return to the stage where he stopped with the Houthis.
As a matter of fact, he already announced his intention to go to Sanaa and
Oman to talk to them.
From another angle, the point that the United Nations and its international
envoy must understand is that the Houthis cannot make any decisions, as
whether they like it or not as they are an Iranian card that has not been
burnt yet and the more the US puts pressure on Iran, as is the case right
now, the more it will sharpen its claws against the countries where it has a
foothold.
Therefore, any progress or regression made by Griffiths is related to the
situation of Iran which will suffer a lot in about a month and a half from
now when US sanctions on energy trade will be enforced. Although everyone is
saying and hoping that the solution in Yemen will be political rather than
military, the reality is that the military operational progress of the
Yemeni army forces on the ground are the only aspects facing the authority
of Tehran over the Houthis.
Tripoli and Idlib: A
question of strategies and possibilities
Radwan al-Sayed/Al Arabiya/September 15/18
In recent years, I have been repeating a statement made by late Saudi
Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal in 2010 that the Arab world faces a
“strategic vacuum” and that nature refuses such a state of emptiness. Prince
Al-Faisal has predicted an increase in foreign interferences in Arab
countries. At the time, there were complaints of the Hamas statelet in Gaza
which the Iranians and the Assad regime founded, of Egypt's dispute with
Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Eritrea's assaults on
Yemeni islands.
Since nature is averse to emptiness, many regional, international and
terrorist organizations have seized the opportunity of the chaos in the year
of 2011, so they increased their interferences, seized countries and
deployed their militias in other countries to spread chaos. The
international forces have returned under the pretext of fighting terrorism!
All these facts are well known, and can be found in the news and researches.
There are countries which have surrendered to Iranian militias, such as
Lebanon, and countries like Iraq which are still trying to fight back and
restore the state. Nevertheless, the most painful examples of ongoing
calamities with no hope in the horizon are Libya and Syria.
Libyan crisis
The terrible thing about what happened in Libya is that international forces
which have intervened in the unrest from the very beginning have legislated
what they considered a solution that keeps the capital Tripoli under the
control of the militias or rather most of western Libya as several “armies”
still sit comfortably draining the country's resources and enjoying the
protection of the National Accord system and of its presidential council and
government which was invented by international forces. The international
powers have hijacked this great "accord" to the point that they wanted to
hold elections later this year. However, one or two militias felt that their
share of land and money are too small compared to their capabilities and
greatness, so they clashed, as usual, among each other, killing civilians
and destroying several neighborhoods.
If the situation in Tripoli and western Libya is terrible, it is actually
much worse in Syria. For many years, Syria has been divided between
international parties (Russia, the United States, France and Britain),
regional ones (Iran and Turkey), and Assad's soldiers and sectarian
militias. Since 2015, Russia’s air force has intervened to help Assad, built
huge bases and committed horrific massacres.
The Idlib disaster
When the Russians were subjugating the disobedient areas, the regime's
forces and Iran’s militias would come in and take control over the land and
forcibly displace people to Idlib, where the number of refugees and
displaced people is far greater than the resident population. Now it is
Idlib’s turn to be crushed on the pretext that there are al-Qaeda terrorists
there. The Russians, the Iranians and the Turks are meeting in Tehran to
finalize the issue of annihilating the city! Meanwhile the Americans and
some Europeans are cautioning against a humanitarian crisis. As for the
international envoy, he ended up “trying to come up with something new”
saying that he and international humanitarian organizations are ready to
secure a safe passage for those who want to escape! Who are the people who
can escape? Are they the ones who have been displaced from Aleppo, Homs,
Daraa, Qalamun and other places! Where will they go? Their only option is to
head to the Turkish border and Turkey already has 3.5 million displaced
Syrians, so will it agree to receive another million? No one believes that
if Idlib is burned, the war in Syria would end. There are areas in the east
of the Euphrates, in the hands of the Kurds and their American guardians.
There are Turkish border areas, under Erdogan's control, and as such the
conflict in Syria appears to be never-ending.
Strategic vacuum
Those who invaded Syria cannot be the protectors of its peace and unity, but
Arabs have been absent for years, so their only way to exercise any
influence is through international powers, that is the Russians and the
Americans, and of course not through the Iranians who "discovered" in Syria
more than 8,000 Al-Bayt shrines and have to stay to protect them from
extremists! Turkey, too, cannot be relied on after Erdogan discovered the
bones of the Ottomon royal family in a cemetery in Aleppo. He also
discovered that the Kurds were threatening Turkey on its border with Syria!
Things are very different in Libya. Eastern Libya has its elected national
parliament and most of the national army. Thanks to the army, the Libyan
east is almost free of terrorism, after it wiped out chaos. The solution in
Libya is feasible and its pillar is Arab support of the Libyan national army
and the parliament. As for the international forces, they are not concerned
with the militias, but with the dispute between France and Italy! The only
way to get rid of this "strategic vacuum" is through intervention of Arab
decision-making, as they have intervened in Yemen, and by practicing
influence in turmoil-hit regions.
World’s Post-Lehman Legacy
Brian Chappatta/Bloomberg View/September 15/18
In many ways, all the talk about global central banks beginning a “great
unwind” of their extraordinary monetary stimulus is positively quaint.
After all, how can officials from the Federal Reserve to the Bank of Japan
even pretend to know how to reverse what they’ve done over the past decade?
I’m speaking specifically about propping up financial markets with easy
money and allowing the world’s debt burden to balloon to almost $250
trillion.
They kept interest rates at or below zero for an extended period — probably
too long, if they’re being honest with themselves — and used bond-buying
programs to further suppress sovereign yields, punishing savers and
promoting consumption and risk-taking. Global debt has ballooned over the
past two decades: from $84 trillion at the turn of the century, to $173
trillion at the time of the 2008 financial crisis, to $250 trillion a decade
after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse.
Governments are largely responsible for the borrowing binge, with their debt
growing not just nominally but as a percentage of global GDP as well.
Not everyone is piling up debt. Thanks to post-crisis regulations, financial
corporations have become healthier and more resilient to another shock. Over
the past decade, they’ve increased their debt by just $3 trillion, leaving
their debt-to-GDP ratio as low as it has been in recent memory.
But other companies have picked up the slack, taking advantage of
rock-bottom interest rates to take on increasingly high amounts of leverage
to boost profits. They used to have less debt than financial corporations.
Some $27 trillion of borrowing later, the obligations are almost as large as
the world’s GDP.
Households across the globe appear to be in a similar position as they were
10 years ago. As a percentage of GDP, the debt has barely changed. But it
depends where you look. In nominal terms, household debt is down in
developed markets like the Germany, Japan and the UK. In China, on the other
hand, households have accumulated $6.5 trillion of debt, up from $757
billion in 2008.
Now, 10 years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, we’re seeing the
results of the grandest central-bank experiment in history. On the surface,
it looks like mission accomplished. In the US, the unemployment rate is near
a 48-year low, the S&P 500 Index recently reached another all-time high and
consumers are about as confident as they’ve been this millennium. But dig a
little deeper, and you’ll find that this road has been paved with debt, debt
and more debt — and that it’s a one-way street.
Let’s start with the $15.3 trillion US Treasury market, the world’s biggest
bond market. Remarkably, it has tripled in size since August 2008. For
context, in the prior 10-year period, it grew by “only” $1.5 trillion, even
amid the beginning of the Iraq War. The totality of US federal debt now
makes up more than 100 percent of America’s gross domestic product.
Meanwhile, American households have been deleveraging, with their debt as a
percentage of GDP reaching the lowest level since 2002. US financial
corporations have slashed their leverage as well, while other companies have
brought their borrowing back up to levels last seen amid the heights of the
crisis.
This isn’t a uniquely American problem. Across the globe, government debt
has soared over the past decade, both in nominal amount and as a percentage
of GDP. While individuals and financial institutions have been busy getting
their houses in order after the crisis, many large governments leaned on
their captive buyer base — central banks — to binge on debt and pull forward
economic growth.
The fact that central banks suppressed interest rates also encouraged
nonfinancial companies to tap the bond markets early and often. Across the
world, their debt load now represents more than 90 percent of GDP, up from
about 77 percent in 2008, according to data from the Institute of
International Finance. Sometimes those proceeds were put to productive uses,
but often the corporations merely purchased their own shares, boosting the
stock value.
Now, this isn’t solely a developed-market story, either. Emerging-market
debt levels are much higher than they were 10 years ago, with yield-starved
investors clamoring for dollar-denominated debt from places like Turkey and
Brazil. Of course, those nations are now coming under pressure as the Fed
raises interest rates, boosting the dollar and making it more costly for
companies in those countries to repay their obligations. Across all emerging
nations, nonfinancial corporate debt represents almost 100 percent of their
GDP.
But it’s worth noting that China’s debt levels have exploded in the
post-Lehman era. China is now saddled with almost $40 trillion of debt,
compared with less than $30 trillion for all other emerging markets
combined. In 2008, the group had $16 trillion of debt, while China only
carried $7 trillion. The world’s second-largest economy is now coming to
terms with rising corporate defaults.
No one knows for sure whether the leverage across the financial system is
sustainable — only that it’s different from 2008. Back then, some
individuals overextended themselves by taking on mortgages they had little
hope of repaying. This time, companies are pushing the envelope as far as
they can, accepting weaker credit ratings in an effort to maximize profits.
This is the post-Lehman legacy. To pull the global economy back from the
brink, governments borrowed heavily from the future. That either portends
pain ahead, through austerity measures or tax increases, or it signals that
central-bank meddling will become a permanent fixture of 21st century
financial markets.