Detailed
Lebanese & Lebanese Related LCCC English New Bulletin For October 05/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias
Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/newselias18/english.october05.18.htm
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Bible
Quotations
To whom
much has been given, much will be required; and from one to whom much has
been entrusted, even more will be demanded.
Luke 12/42-48: "The Lord said, ‘Who then is the faithful and prudent manager
whom his master will put in charge of his slaves, to give them their
allowance of food at the proper time? Blessed is that slave whom his master
will find at work when he arrives. Truly I tell you, he will put that one in
charge of all his possessions. But if that slave says to himself, "My master
is delayed in coming", and if he begins to beat the other slaves, men and
women, and to eat and drink and get drunk, the master of that slave will
come on a day when he does not expect him and at an hour that he does not
know, and will cut him in pieces, and put him with the unfaithful. That
slave who knew what his master wanted, but did not prepare himself or do
what was wanted, will receive a severe beating. But one who did not know and
did what deserved a beating will receive a light beating. From everyone to
whom much has been given, much will be required; and from one to whom much
has been entrusted, even more will be demanded."
نشرات اخبار عربية وانكليزية مطولة ومفصلة يومية على موقعنا الألكتروني على
الرابط التالي
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Titles For The Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials
from miscellaneous sources published on October 04-05/18
USA Treasury Continues to Expose and Disrupt Hizballah’s Financial Support
Networks/Press Release/October 4, 2018
Human Rights Watch: Lebanon Law Discriminates against Mothers/Associated
Press/Naharnet/October 04/18/
Is CEDRE a Last Chance or a Mirage/Khalil Toubia/Executive Magazine/October
0418
Israel seen behind WhatsApp warning to Beirut residents about Hezbollah
facility/The Times Of Israel/October 04/18
What Happened to Jamal Khashoggi? Conflicting Reports Deepen a
MysteryéCarlotta Gall/The New York Times/October 04/18
Iranian regime strengthening its ability to control Syria’s destiny/Dr.
Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 04/18
The Iran Action Group Puts Muscle Behind Trump’s Iran Bluster/Nick Wadhams &
Javier Blas/Bloomberg/October 04/18
U.S. Withdraws From 1955 Treaty Normalizing Relations With Iran/Edward Wong
and David E. Sanger/The New York Times/October 04/18
Analysis/With S-300 Now in Syria, Putin Signals a New Long-term Strategy for
Russia/Anshel Pfeffer/Haaretz/October 04/18
Is Criticizing Terrorism "Mental Illness"/Guy Millière/Gatestone
Institute/October 04/18
Saudi Arabia and Arab stability/Radwan al-Sayed/Al Arabiya/October 04/18
Syria and the myth of the regime’s recovery/Hazem al-Amin/Al Arabiya/October
04/18
Titles For The
Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
October 04-05/18
USA Treasury Continues to Expose and Disrupt Hizballah’s Financial Support
Networks
Hariri: Aoun Won't Wait for Bassil, Govt. May be Formed within a Week
Report: Lebanon’s Hariri expects new cabinet in 7-10 days
Aoun Tells Hariri 'We Can't Continue Like This'
Cabinet negotiations ongoing following Hariri, Aoun meeting
Mashnouq Threatens to Seize Generators as Providers Demand 'Fair Tariff'
Turkey Summons Saudi Ambassador over Missing Journalist
Jumblat Wants 2 Key Portfolios to Give Up 3rd Druze Seat
Human Rights Watch: Lebanon Law Discriminates against Mothers
Hariri Voices Optimism Over Imminent Government Formation
Lebanon Debt on `Unsustainable Path' as World Bank Cuts Forecast
Geagea Urges Aoun to Act on Govt., Criticizes Bassil's 'Missiles Tour'
UK Envoy Visits LAF Training Center, Congratulates 10,000th Soldier Trained
Hankache Says Neutral Government of Specialists Is Key to Country's Welfare
Kataeb Party to Host Meeting of Saydet Al-Jabal Gathering
Kataeb's Media Council Condemns Growing Suppression in Lebanon
Heads of Army, ISF at Airport to Be Replaced After Bickering
Is CEDRE a Last Chance or a Mirage?
Israel seen behind WhatsApp warning to Beirut residents about Hezbollah
facility
Titles For The Latest LCCC
Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on October 04-05/18
Paris Bomb Plot Claims Cloud Iran President's Hopes of EU Help
What Happened to Jamal Khashoggi? Conflicting Reports Deepen a Mystery
S-300 in Syria to 'Establish New Reality'... Russian Plans for Missile
Umbrella
Syria: Sweida Tensions Rise After ISIS Executes Captive Young Woman
As Clock Ticks, Little Progress Visible on Idlib Deal
Jerusalem: Israeli Settlers Take Over Building, Land Plot in Silwan
Neighborhood
Merkel Vows German Fight against Anti-Semitism on Israel Visit
U.S., UK, Canada, Netherlands, Australia Accuse Russia of Global Hacking
Conspiracy
U.N. Chief Hopes for 'Swift' Formation of Iraqi Government
Iraq: Smooth Transition of Power Offers Glimmer of Hope
Iraq: Sadr bloc won’t take part in new cabinet
Washington to Withdraw From Vienna Protocol... PA Continues to Sue It
Arab Parliament Condemns Iranian Intervention in Yemen
AMCD Opposes US Meeting with Sudan’s Military Chief of Staff
Egypt’s security forces kill 15 suspected militants in a Sinai shootout
The Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on October 04-05/18
USA Treasury Continues
to Expose and Disrupt Hizballah’s Financial Support Networks
بالاسماء: الشركات
اللبنانية التي فرضت عليها الخزانة الاميركية العقوبات
Press Release/October
4, 2018
U.S. Department of the Treasury
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/67880/usa-treasury-continues-to-expose-and-disrupt-hizballahs-financial-support-networks-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%b3%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84/
Washington – The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of
Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) took action today to disrupt Hizballah’s
financial support networks by designating Muhammad ‘Abdallah al-Amin (al-Amin)
as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) pursuant to Executive
Order (E.O.) 13224. OFAC designated al-Amin for providing material support
to Hizballah insider and financier Adham Husayn Tabaja (Tabaja). In addition
to al-Amin, OFAC designated seven Lebanon-based companies that are owned or
controlled by al-Amin: Sierra Gas S.A.L. Offshore, Lama Foods S.A.R.L., Lama
Foods International Offshore S.A.L., Impulse S.A.R.L., Impulse International
S.A.L. Offshore, M. Marine S.A.L. Offshore, and Thaingui S.A.L. Offshore.
“Hizballah is an Iranian-proxy, and this Administration is focused on
exposing and disrupting its terrorist funding networks. We are exerting
extraordinary pressure on Hizballah financiers like Tabaja to halt their
pernicious activities in Lebanon and beyond,” said Sigal Mandelker, Under
Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. “Our
action should serve as a warning that we will impose consequences on anyone
engaging in business relationships with al-Amin or other Hizballah support
networks. Treasury has taken more actions against Hizballah this year than
ever before, and we are fully committed to shutting down this terrorist
network.”
Calendar year 2018 marks the highest number of Hizballah-related
designations by OFAC in a single year. The designation of al-Amin and his
companies builds upon additional actions taken in February 2018 targeting
the Tabaja network operating in West Africa and Lebanon. OFAC designated
Tabaja on June 6, 2015, for acting for or on behalf of Hizballah. Tabaja
maintains direct ties to senior Hizballah officials and Hizballah’s
operational component, the Islamic Jihad, which is responsible for planning,
coordinating, and executing Hizballah’s terrorist attacks worldwide. Tabaja
also holds properties in Lebanon on behalf of Hizballah.
All property and interests in property of those persons designated today
that are subject to U.S. jurisdiction are now blocked, and U.S. persons are
generally prohibited from engaging in transactions with them.
Muhammad ‘Abdallah al-Amin
Al-Amin was designated for assisting in, sponsoring, or providing financial,
material, or technological support for, or financial or other services to or
in support of, Tabaja.
Al-Amin conceals funds for Tabaja, and Tabaja has held a significant amount
of funds in al-Amin’s name at a Lebanese bank. Al-Amin has also served as a
liaison between Tabaja and banking officials and has assisted Tabaja in
circumventing the impact of sanctions.
In addition to his direct support to Tabaja, al-Amin has been involved in
financial activities with Muhammad Fallah Kallas, whom OFAC designated on
October 20, 2016, for providing financial services to or in support of
Tabaja through his work for Tabaja’s company, Al-Inmaa Engineering and
Contracting (Al-Inmaa). Moreover, al-Amin has business relationships with
Ali Muhammad Qansu and Jihad Muhammad Qansu, whom OFAC designated on
February 2, 2018, for acting for or on behalf of Tabaja and Tabaja’s
company, Al-Inmaa, respectively.
Lebanon-based companies Sierra Gas S.A.L. Offshore, Lama Foods S.A.R.L.,
Lama Foods International Offshore S.A.L., Impulse S.A.R.L., Impulse
International S.A.L. Offshore, M. Marine S.A.L. Offshore, and Thaingui S.A.L.
Offshore.
All seven entities were designated for being owned or controlled by al-Amin.
Al-Amin is a founder, majority shareholder, and the chairman of Sierra Gas
S.A.L. Offshore, a provider of gas field services; Lama Foods International
Offshore S.A.L., a food importer and distributor; Impulse International
S.A.L. Offshore, a general merchandise distributor; M. Marine S.A.L.
Offshore, a general merchandise distributor; and Thaingui S.A.L. Offshore.
Al-Amin also holds a majority ownership stake in, and is the general manager
of, Lama Foods S.A.R.L., a food import and trade company. Additionally, al-Amin
is a founder, the majority shareholder, and the managing director of Impulse
S.A.R.L., an advertising company.
The seven companies designated today should not be viewed as an exhaustive
list of companies owned or controlled by al-Amin, and the regulated
community remains responsible for conducting necessary due diligence and
maintaining compliance with OFAC’s 50 percent rule.
Additionally, al-Amin and the seven entities designated today are subject to
secondary sanctions pursuant to the Hizballah Financial Sanctions
Regulations, which implements the Hizballah International Financing
Prevention Act of 2015. Pursuant to this authority, OFAC can prohibit or
impose strict conditions on the opening or maintaining in the United States
of a correspondent account or a payable-through account by a foreign
financial institution that knowingly facilitates a significant transaction
for Hizballah, or a person acting on behalf of or at the direction of, or
owned or controlled by, Hizballah.
*Identifying information on the individual and entities designated today.
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Pages/20181004.aspx
Hariri: Aoun Won't
Wait for Bassil, Govt. May be Formed within a Week
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri announced Thursday that the new
government could be formed within “a week to ten days.”“Everyone must offer
sacrifices... I urge the president to offer sacrifices to facilitate the
formation of the government, regarding the deputy PM post and other issues,”
Hariri said in an interview on MTV. Asked whether Free Patriotic Movement
chief MP Jebran Bassil is obstructing the formation process, Hariri said:
“The president does not wait for Bassil's opinion and we might form a
government within seven to ten days.”
Referring to his Wednesday meeting with Aoun, Bassil said he “heard
constructive remarks at the presidential palace.”“I'm willing to give
everyone seats from my share for the sake of the country,” Hariri added. As
for the so-called “Druze obstacle,” Hariri admitted that “there is a dispute
over the appointment of Talal Arslan as a minister.” He however reassured
that the issue will be resolved in cooperation with Progressive Socialist
Party chief Walid Jumblat and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. “There are no
foreign pressures regarding the formation process,” Hariri went on to say.
Emphasizing that he is not to blame for the new government's delay, the
PM-designate underlined that he “will not be pressured” with any talk about
the Constitution. “I'm keen on the country and I offered many sacrifices for
the sake of the president's election,” Hariri added. As for Lebanese Forces
leader Samir Geagea, Hariri said the LF chief “offered concessions despite
the LF's major ambitions,” describing the relation with him as “very good.”
Report: Lebanon’s
Hariri expects new cabinet in 7-10 days
Reuters, Beirut Friday, 5 October 2018/Lebanon will have a new government
within seven-ten days and the economy cannot withstand any more delay, Prime
Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri said on Thursday. Since a parliamentary
election in May, political wrangling has prevented Lebanon from forming a
national unity government, raising concerns in a country with one of the
world’s highest rates of public debt. “The economic situation is very
difficult...(it) can’t bear political disputes,” Hariri said in an interview
on a prime-time television show on Thursday night. “There are solutions,
which (President Michel Aoun) and I have discussed.”In the five months since
the May vote, Hariri has expressed optimism several times about a near
breakthrough. Key parties in Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system have
jostled over ministries, as foreign donors urged avoiding any more delay and
Lebanese politicians warned of economic crisis. A Paris donors conference in
April yielded pledges of billions, conditional on reform that a new
government will have to undertake.Lebanon’s last coalition government
continued as a caretaker administration after the May vote, which produced a
parliament tilted in favor of the Iran-backed Shiite Hezbollah movement.
Aoun Tells Hariri 'We
Can't Continue Like This'
Naharnet/October
04/18/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri did not carry any “clear Cabinet
format” to President Michel Aoun during his visit to the Baabda Palace on
Wednesday, a media report published Thursday said. “He tried to explore the
possibility of resolving the obstacles, especially the Christian one,” al-Akhbar
newspaper reported. “There are indications of progress, but they are not
sufficient to lead to the formation of the government,” the daily added.
Senior Free Patriotic Movement sources meanwhile told al-Akhbar that Hariri
“wanted to promote his TV interview scheduled for today and to say that he
is positive.”The sources also revealed that FPM chief MP Jebran Bassil will
hold a press conference Friday at noon to declare the movement's “complete
stance” on the Cabinet formation process. The sources added that Baabda's
meeting on Wednesday had witnessed “a full political demonstration of the
formation file and of the obstacles, without delving into any new draft
Cabinet line-up.” “Aoun urged Hariri to expedite the formation process,
telling him we cannot continue like this,” the sources revealed. The sources
however noted that “the negotiations are not deadlocked and the coming days
will witness a new round of consultations.”
Cabinet negotiations
ongoing following Hariri, Aoun meeting
Georgi Azar/Annahar/October 04/18/BEIRUT: As the Cabinet formation deadlock
mopes into its fifth month amid increasing economic uncertainty, Prime
Minister-designate Saad Hariri attempted to bridge the gap during his
meeting with President Michel Aoun Tuesday at the Baabda Presidential
Palace, expressing "optimism" in resolving the crisis. Hariri has been
tasked with forming an all-inclusive Cabinet that brings together
representatives of major parties. However, his efforts have stumbled as the
Lebanese Forces, caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil's Free Patriotic
Movement and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt continue to
quarrel over their share of portfolios. Sources close to the negotiation
process maintained Hariri's willingness to break the stalemate given the
social and economic unease surrounding the country, with the latest talks
touching on the Premier's most recent consultations with the parties
involved. In the midst of all this uncertainty, both leaders agreed "on the
need to speed up the process in order for the government to face the various
challenges facing Lebanon, namely the economic situation and Israeli
aggression," sources told Annahar. Lebanon has been without a fully
functioning government since the conclusion of the country's parliamentary
elections on May 6, with Hariri adamant in refusing to grant Bassil's FPM or
any other coalition, veto power in the government, the equivalent of over 10
seats in a 30-member Cabinet. Despite the Cabinet not being formed, Speaker
Nabih Berri convened parliament for the first time last month to tackle an
agenda of 29 draft laws and proposals, including the highly controversial
waste management decree which environmentalists have blasted before
ratifying it. The controversial session also ratified the international Arms
Trade Treaty, angering Hezbollah legislators, some of whom walked out in
protest. The 2014 treaty seeks to regulate international trade in
conventional arms and prevent illicit trade.
Mashnouq Threatens to Seize Generators as Providers
Demand 'Fair Tariff'
Naharnet/October 04/18/Caretaker Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq on
Thursday warned that authorities would “confiscate any generator that stops
supplying people with electricity,” as private generator providers insisted
that they will not install meters unless the state allows them to charge a
“fair and profitable tariff.”“The LBP 410 per kilowatt tariff that has been
set by the Energy Ministry is unfair and unprofitable and would lead to our
bankruptcy,” a spokesman for the providers said at a press conference.“You
want the meters, we agree, but give us a fair and profitable tariff, seeing
as the current one is unfair because it does not include maintenance and
operation costs,” the spokesman added. “The generators will not be turned on
with a loss and we support the state if it wants to regulate the sector, but
this requires extensive assessment and fairness among all citizens and
Lebanese regions,” he went on to say. The spokesman also announced that the
providers intend to sue caretaker Economy Minister Raed Khoury for calling
them “mafias.”Speaking to reporters after meeting Khoury, Minister Mashnouq
announced that the ministry's security forces “will enforce the law and will
oversee the installation of the meters.”
“If there is a problem regarding the tariff, let them negotiate with the
Energy Ministry, but installation has nothing to do with the tariff,”
Mashnouq added. “We will confiscate any generator that stops supplying
people with electricity and we will shoulder the responsibility of providing
electricity,” the minister warned. Khoury for his part stressed that his
ministry will not accept any violation of the decision to install meters,
noting that “the tariff is negotiable on a case by case basis.”
Turkey Summons Saudi Ambassador over Missing Journalist
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/18/Saudi Arabia's ambassador to
Turkey was on Thursday summoned to the foreign ministry after a prominent
journalist critical of Riyadh went missing, a Turkish diplomatic source
said. Jamal Khashoggi, a contributor to the Washington Post, went to the
Saudi consulate on Tuesday to receive an official document for his marriage
and has not appeared since then. His Turkish fiancee reported him missing
after the journalist, who has lived in self-imposed exile in the U.S. since
last year to avoid possible arrest, was not seen after he entered the
consulate on Tuesday afternoon for marriage procedures. After an initial
period of silence Saudi Arabia said the consulate was working with Turkish
authorities "to uncover the circumstances of the disappearance of Jamal
Khashoggi after he left the consulate building."Turkish presidential
spokesman Ibrahim Kalin however told reporters on Wednesday the journalist
was being held at the consulate, adding that Ankara was in touch with Saudi
officials. The U.S. State Department said it was investigating the matter.
Khashoggi's fiancee told AFP that there had been no news about the
journalist. "We don't know where he is. If he had left the consulate as said
by the Saudis, we would know where he is," she said.
Jumblat Wants 2 Key Portfolios to Give Up 3rd Druze
Seat
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/18/Progressive Socialist Party
chief Walid Jumblat has showed flexibility and willingness to give up one of
three seats reserved for the Druze community in the new government, a media
report said. Jumblat is however conditioning this on getting “two essential
portfolios: agriculture and health/public works,” al-Akhbar newspaper
reported on Thursday. “This will create a new hurdle, seeing as Hizbullah
and the Marada Movement are not willing to give up these two portfolios,”
the daily quoted senior March 8 sources as saying. Al-Akhbar also reported
that the previous “Druze obstacle” would be resolved through a swap between
Jumblat and President Michel Aoun under which the PSP would get a Christian
seat in return for a Druze seat for the president. Aoun and the Free
Patriotic Movement had been insisting on giving one of the Druze seats to
their ally MP Talal Arslan.
Human Rights Watch: Lebanon Law Discriminates against Mothers
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 04/18/
A prominent rights group has called on Lebanese authorities to amend a
nearly 100-year-old law that discriminates against Lebanese women married to
foreigners, denying their children citizenship.
Human Rights Watch's deputy Middle East director Lama Fakih said the 1925
law has "caused untold hardship" for thousands of families, such as denying
kids and spouses national health insurance, limiting access to jobs and
requiring them to apply for residency every 12 to 36 months. A Lebanese
father married to a foreigner can give his children his nationality, and so
can a Lebanese mother with a child of unknown paternity, but not a Lebanese
woman married to a foreigner. This also leaves many at risk of being
stateless, the New York-based organization said. Continuous campaigning to
amend the law has resulted in some steps allowing children and foreign
spouses of Lebanese mothers access to work and public education. But the
work permits for professions reserved for Lebanese citizens are
discretionary and Lebanese children have priority in enrolling in schools.
The government in 2013 accepted a proposal to grant some privileges to
people born to Lebanese mothers but didn't amend the law. HRW said since
then the government has prioritized citizenship for those living outside the
country over children and spouses of Lebanese women living in Lebanon. In
2015, the government passed a law granting citizenship to members of the
Lebanese diaspora, again excluding the descendants of Lebanese women.
"Recent steps to provide access to basic rights like education and work to
the children and spouses of Lebanese women are steps in the right direction,
but confusing and piecemeal measures are no substitute for equal
citizenship," Fakih said. Many children born to Lebanese mothers know no
other home and some have even competed in international competitions
representing Lebanon, yet they are still considered foreigners. Rochana
Atmeh, the Lebanese mother of an 8-year-old girl born to a Swedish father,
said the family almost missed an Abacus competition in South Africa because
the airline stopped them and asked for an English translation of the girl's
birth certificate. Issued in Lebanon in Arabic for her Swedish daughter, the
document is the only proof Atmeh is her mother. After tears and searching, a
translator came through at midnight to help with the documents and Atmeh and
her daughter Jennifer Maria Hektor made it to Johannesburg, where Jennifer
won first-runner up in her category. It is a typical experience but this
time it almost cost the daughter her prize. "She's born in Lebanon. She
lives in Lebanon with a residency and every three years I have to apply for
residency. Nothing on her passport says I am her mother," Atmeh said. Hektor
was photographed with the Lebanese flag in Johannesburg. The Lebanese team
won more than 50 places of the 300 competitors and a row broke out at the
airport welcoming the team back in Beirut. "When she was asked (as a winner)
where she was from, she said she was Swedish but loves Lebanon," Atmeh said.
Other countries in the region, including Algeria, Egypt and Yemen, provide
equal citizenship rights to the children of both men and women.
Hariri Voices Optimism
Over Imminent Government Formation
Beirut- Youssef Diab/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 October, 2018/Lebanese
leaders have resumed their consultations on the formation of the new
government, amid an atmosphere of optimism, as many spoke of a “glimmer of
hope” after four and a half months of the government’s caretaking status. A
meeting was held on Wednesday evening at the Baabda Palace between President
Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri, who expressed
optimism over the imminent formation of the government. “The atmosphere is
positive, God willing, and I am very optimistic,” Hariri told reporters
following the meeting, adding that he agreed with the president on the need
to speed up the formation of the government due to the critical economic
situation. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, presidential sources talked about
the presence of a “real atmosphere” for the formation of a new government,
including ideas and proposals that were discussed during the meeting between
Aoun and Hariri. “Most of these ideas contain answers to the reservations
put forward by the president on the previous version. This doesn’t mean that
the government will be formed now, but certainly there is new climate that
constitutes a ground for its formation,” the sources said. “If this positive
atmosphere is materialized, the government may see the light in a matter of
days or two weeks at the latest,” they added. Earlier on Wednesday, Speaker
Nabih Berri announced that he sees a “glimmer of hope” in the Cabinet
formation process. “The solution [of the existing crises] begins with the
formation of a government as soon as possible,” he said. Meanwhile, the
Future Movement used a more cautious approach, so that the Lebanese would
not be as deceived as in the past few weeks. According to the member of the
party’s political bureau member, Rashed Fayed, “signs of optimism sent by
some leaders are normal, but this does not mean that we have reached the
final solutions.” In parallel, political forces do not hide the seriousness
of the Israeli threats, underlining the need to confront them with the
formation of the government. The "Liberation and Development" bloc, headed
by Berri, stressed that the recent Israeli statements and threats required
national unity. “The situation calls for the formation of a government to
get the country out of crisis,” the bloc said in a statement.
Lebanon Debt on
`Unsustainable Path' as World Bank Cuts Forecast
Dana Khraiche/Bloomberg/04 October 2018/The World Bank halved Lebanon’s 2018
growth forecast to 1 percent, predicting its ratio of debt to gross domestic
product would remain on an “unsustainable path.” The international lender
cited a central bank decision to abruptly halt subsidized housing loans as a
main factor behind the slowdown in economic activity this year. The real
estate sector has provided “a rare source of growth impetus since 2012,”
while production in most of the country’s other industries has fallen off,
the World Bank said in its October report.
The fiscal deficit is projected to grow to 8.3 percent of GDP in 2018
because of the public sector wage raise the government approved last year,
the bank said. Subdued growth and high interest payments mean the
debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to “persist in an unsustainable path toward
155 percent by end-2018.” Lebanon, the world’s third most-indebted country,
has been grappling with political deadlock and fallout from the civil war in
neighboring Syria, which has led to an influx of some 1.5 million refugees
and the closure of vital trade routes. Prime Minister-designate Saad
Hariri’s failure to form a new government has held up $11 billion in loans
and grants pledged by the international community earlier this year. In
return for the aid, the new government is to implement fiscal and structural
reforms including a commitment to an annual 1 percentage point decline in
the fiscal deficit ratio over the next five years. Spreads on Lebanon’s
credit default swaps and Emerging Market Bond Index Global are even higher
than they were after Hariri abruptly resigned as prime minister in November
2017, the report said. It attributed that to a foreign retreat from Lebanese
assets due to the lack of a government, geopolitical risks and
emerging-market pressures.
Geagea
Urges Aoun to Act on Govt., Criticizes Bassil's 'Missiles Tour'
Naharnet/October 04/18/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has urged
President Michel Aoun to “personally intervene” to facilitate the formation
of the new government, as he criticized the tour that caretaker Foreign
Minister Jebran Bassil has recently organized for foreign ambassadors in
Lebanon.
“Overcoming the formation crisis requires the personal intervention of the
president, who should give each party its legitimate right. I personally
call on the president to take this step according to the results of the
elections,” Geagea said in an interview with the Central New Agency
published Wednesday. Commenting on Israel's claims about the presence of
“Hizbullah missile sites” near Beirut airport and the Lebanese response to
the allegations, Geagea warned that “the situation in the region is
explosive and the international conflict is huge on several axes and
fronts.”“Amid all of this, verbal responses and media stunts are not
beneficial. The president and the prime minister must deal very carefully
with what is happening and must warn all parties against taking any step
that would pose the least risk to Lebanon,” the LF leader added, in an
apparent reference to the Bassil-organized tour. Separately, Geagea
confirmed that “the page will be turned on the past and a new chapter will
be opened with the Marada Movement very soon,” describing the relation with
the Kataeb Party as “normal.”
UK Envoy Visits LAF
Training Center, Congratulates 10,000th Soldier Trained
Naharnet/October 04/18/On his first official visit outside Beirut to the
Lebanese Army’s Special Forces School in Hamat, British Ambassador to
Lebanon Chris Rampling toured the training facility and congratulated the
10,000th soldier trained, the UK embassy said on Thursday. Rampling met with
the Commander of the Special Forces Training school and heard how the joint
UK- U.S. and LAF training is “benefiting Lebanon’s security in urban and
rural areas,” the embassy said. “The UK has committed over £63 million to
supporting the Lebanese Army since 2010, alongside significant contributions
from the U.S. and other international donors,” it added. After the visit,
Ambassador Rampling said: “It is a privilege for me to visit the Lebanese
Army’s Special Forces school and see and hear how the UK support is helping
the army in maintaining security and stability. We believe in the Lebanese
Army’s capabilities as the sole defender of Lebanon, providing security to
all citizens from the border to the Mediterranean.”“I’m really proud to hand
over a UK training certificate to the ten thousandth soldier who graduated
from here. It is a sign of our commitment to train, which has now reached
almost one third of the Lebanese Army’s fighting force,” he added. “We are
committed to our continued partnership with the Lebanese Army with actions
and not just words,” Rampling went on to say.
Hankache Says Neutral
Government of Specialists Is Key to Country's Welfare
Kataeb.org/Thursday 04th October 2018/Kataeb MP Elias Hankache deemed the
formation of a neutral government of specialists as key to pulling the
country out of the spiral of danger it is currently whirling inside,
stressing that it should include independent figures who cannot be
influenced by politics."There is a blatant and disastrous mismanagement
plaguing Lebanon," Hankache said in an interview on MTV. "There will be no
salvation if the country doesn't take a rescue path," he stressed. Hankache
said that mismanagement will persist if no drastic changes are made, warning
that the country is on the verge of collapse and the state is gradually
shattering. The Kataeb lawmaker blamed the politicians' recklessness and
bickering over shares for the ongoing Cabinet stalemate, slamming their
negligence while the country's economy is at stake. "With every passing day,
the country is being pushed further towards the brink of the cliff," he
warned. Hankache reiterated his call for the adoption of administrative
decentralization, praising this system as the first step towards the
much-anticipated solutions in the country. "Administrative decentralization
would prevent the current situation from getting worse. We will cooperate
with anyone who shares with us this aspiration because we believe that it is
unacceptable to go on with the current crooked system." The lawmaker
emphasized that the Kataeb party has been the only one to cling to the
values of the March 14 coalition, adding that it has paid the price for
doing so. “March 14 forces contributed to the election of a pro-Hezbollah
candidate as the president of the country. Hezbollah's illegal weapons and
involvement in regional conflicts are the origin of our problems in Lebanon.
If we do not commit to neutrality, then we will be putting the country at
stake," Hankache warned. In another interview with Annahar newspaper,
Hankache stressed the need for the rescue government to set out a serious
economic plan to deal with the manifold challenges, adding that the ongoing
bickering and spiteful stances do not usher in an imminent breakthrough.
“Safeguarding the country means forming a rescue government that would ease
tensions until the political forces reach consensus on a government that
represents them,” Hankache said.
Kataeb Party to Host Meeting of Saydet Al-Jabal
Gathering
Kataeb.org/Thursday 04th October 2018/The Kataeb party, the National Liberal
Party and the Saydet Al-Jabal (Our Lady of Mountain) Gathering on Thursday
called for a broad meeting at the Kataeb headquarters in Saifi on October
10, to voice absolute oppositon to the growing political oppression in the
country and to voice unwavering support to all forms of freedom. The Saydet
Al-Jabal (Our Lady of Mountain) Gathering held an exceptional meeting on
Thursday in Ashrafieh to discuss the blatant suppression targeting the
freedom of expression in the country. The Gathering convened one day after
the forcible cancellation of the meeting that was set to be held by the
Saydet Al-Jabal Gathering at the Bristol Hotel in Beirut. Hezbollah's senior
official Wafik Safa admitted on Wednesday that he had personally asked the
hotel to not host the event.
Kataeb's Media Council Condemns Growing Suppression in
Lebanon
Kataeb.org/Thursday 04th October 2018/The Kataeb's Media Council on Thursday
condemned the growing suppression of the freedom of expression in Lebanon,
deeming the forcible cancellation of the Saydet Al-Jabal Gathering as an
outrageous harbinger of what is lurking in the future. Hezbollah's senior
official Wafik Safa admitted on Wednesday that he had personally asked the
Bristol Hotel, where the meeting was supposed to take place, to not host the
event."Attacking the freedom of expression and the free political work of
individuals and groups [...] makes us wonder if political activism in
Lebanon now needs a special authorization and from whom the permission
will be asked for," read a statement issued by the council. "The Kataeb
party, which denounces the prevailing approach that consists of muzzling and
confiscating free minds, warns against altering Lebanon's image, suspending
the Constitution and encroaching on the principle of freedom on which
Lebanon was based," it added.
Heads of Army, ISF at Airport to Be Replaced After
Bickering
The Daily Star/ Thursday 04th October 2018,/An airport shakeup is likely in
the coming days with two of the main security officials set to be replaced,
an airport source confirmed Thursday. The bumpy relationship between
Lebanese Army Brig. Gen. George Doumit and Internal Security Forces Col.
Bilal al-Hajjar – among those who oversee operations at the airport – has
been tense due to a conflict related to jurisdictional issues.Their time
could soon be up, with ISF Col. Ali Taha and an Army “brig. gen. with the
last name Youssef,” set to replace Hajjar and Doumit respectively.
“Investigations are still ongoing, but the word is that these two will be
replaced,” the source told The Daily Star.
Is CEDRE a Last Chance or a Mirage?
Khalil Toubia/Executive Magazine/October 0418
Half a year has passed since CEDRE, the economic conference for development
through reforms with the private sector, the latest in a long line of
international conferences aimed at propping up an unstable Lebanon. It seems
like a good moment to ask what past initiatives and recent developments can
tell us about CEDRE’s political context and chances of success. The outcome
of CEDRE that received the most attention in Lebanon was the financial
promise of support and development funding to the tune of $11 billion. The
funds allocated at CEDRE are of two types: soft loans that provide around
$10.2 billion and grants amounting to around $800 million. The World Bank is
the main contributor, committing to provide a package of soft and
concessionary loans for a total of $4 billion.
As CEDRE was timed to be held just one month before Lebanon’s parliamentary
elections, government formation and fiscal reforms were outlined as
prerequisites for the implementation of the agreements reached at the
conference. Not only has the government formation process been dragging out,
but it also appears that any expectation of an imminent regional and
international solution settling Lebanese domestic challenges would be
misplaced. Under such domestic circumstances, do the CEDRE proposals have
any chance to succeed, given the regional dynamics and the conflicting
interests of the different stakeholders? Can Lebanon’s economy go on despite
the worrying economic indicators? Is there a potential causal relationship
between the possible collapse of the Lebanese economy and a renewed refugee
influx to Europe? These are questions that international and local observers
cannot afford to ignore.
Between internal reforms and geopolitics
Then-Prime Minister Saad Hariri presented CEDRE as a serious engagement by
the international community that would prompt Lebanon to start implementing
reforms and building a modern state, as a step toward increased stability,
growth, and employment. Hariri’s vision was based on four pillars:
increasing the level of public and private investment; ensuring economic and
financial stability through fiscal adjustment; undertaking essential
sectoral and cross-sectoral reforms, including fighting corruption and the
modernization of the public sector and public finance management; and
developing a strategy for the reinforcement and diversification of Lebanon’s
productive sectors and the realization of its export potential. However,
events since CEDRE make it advisable to not only re-examine the
determinations and resolutions reached at the conference, but also to take a
careful look at some of the realities that are present in Lebanon
today—beginning with previous attempts to alleviate problems and achieve
reforms in the county.
Since its independence, Lebanon has witnessed several crises that either
resulted in a domestic conflict or were resolved by the negotiation of a new
political settlement. In both cases, the solutions were inspired and
administered by regional and international actors.
Recent Lebanese history teaches us that Lebanon has long been a seedbed for
problems hatched elsewhere; it is a country where regional crises have
directly impacted its economy and security. The reconstruction period
following the adoption of the new constitution in 1990 was the result of the
1989 Taif Agreement. Several international conferences soon emerged to
foster the Arab-Israeli peace process, which was a central factor in
regional tensions. After the Madrid treaty in 1991, the Oslo treaty in 1993,
and the Arabah treaty between Jordan and Israel in 1994, it was time for the
peace process to reach Lebanon and Syria. However, in the maze of the Middle
East’s search for stability, Syria’s strong man and the main powerbroker in
Lebanon, Hafez al-Assad, had a different agenda.
Between 1990 and 1992, Lebanon’s economic situation worsened fast. The
LL/USD exchange ratio reached 2,800:1 during the summer of 1992, and
inflation rose beyond 100 percent, creating social protests that threatened
to result in a new round of internal conflicts. Most of the big players in
the LL depreciation process of that period belonged to what many call a
“Lebanese Club” of politicians, communitarian leaders and top bankers, in
addition to some key Syrian political and security actors. Post-Taif, a
Syrian-Saudi agreement was forged on “constructed stability” for Lebanon.
The deal granted Saudi Arabia control over economic progress while Syria
presided over the political agenda, effectively sidestepping Lebanese
sovereignty. It was in this geopolitical and economic environment that Rafic
Hariri, close friend of Saudi Arabia, was appointed as Lebanese prime
minister, on October 31, 1992.
Hariri was a dynamic businessman. His plan for the Lebanese economy was to
attract investments and inflows of fresh capital from abroad. This made
currency stability and the Lebanese lira’s parity to the dollar a necessity,
in order to ensure investors secured high yields. Moreover, Hariri’s plan
for stability envisaged achieving social peace in volatile times by
increasing public spending to create job opportunities, in addition to
generating capital investments for the purpose of reconstruction. His main
focuses rested economically on increased public expenditures, and
politically on the integration of confessional militias, as well as
warlords, into the system.
political setbacks
However, the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, which drove more locals
into the Syria- and Iran-backed “Resistance,” meant that a potential peace
process between Israel, on the one hand, and Syria and Lebanon, on the
other, was a distant prospect. The eventual disruption and dissolution of
the Oslo process and renewed violence in south Lebanon thwarted Hariri’s
initial vision for Lebanon’s political stability and economic progress.
Despite notable successes in the reconstruction of Beirut and the rebuilding
of the Lebanese economy as a consequence of the lira’s progressive alignment
with the dollar immediately after the Hariri era had begun in 1993—and the
eventual full peg of approximately LL1,500 to $1—economic problems prevailed
and reached new heights in 2000.
In a once again difficult economic situation, Hariri achieved electoral
success in 2000 and returned as prime minister. This time, he found a new
approach for imposing his economic and political agenda through the
promotion of international conferences for Lebanon. At Paris I, in 2001, and
Paris II, in 2003, Hariri pushed for reforms of the Lebanese administration
and economy. However, due to Syrian refusal, with the collaboration of some
major Lebanese political and economic players, the impact of the
international conferences fell short of expectations. In order to support
Hariri’s plan, and their wider geopolitical aims on the other, the
international community demanded Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in UN
Resolution 1559 in 2004. Shortly after, however, the elder Hariri was
assassinated.
Opposition to the Syrian presence in Lebanon climbed to new heights after
the Hariri assassination. Following Syrian withdrawal in compliance with UN
Resolution 1559, the international community voiced its support for Lebanon
at the Paris III Conference in 2007, but stabilization efforts failed due to
political deadlock between the March 8 and 14 camps, and also due to the
socio-economic system whereby household consumption and public budgets were
continually allowed to exist on what can essentially be seen as a basis of
revolving borrowing or even a snowball finance scheme.
The international and regional political entanglement that hampered previous
attempts to implement reforms and capitalize on foreign economic support to
counter domestic problems must be kept in mind when considering CEDRE’s
chance of success. Fast forward to the present time, where Lebanese and
international economists are increasingly warning that the country is
experiencing a financial crisis that, despite reassurances by politicians
and central bankers, could threaten the national exchange rate and the
banking sector if appropriate and specific actions are not implemented. The
growing need of Banque du Liban (BDL), Lebanon’s central bank, for fresh US
dollars, and the growing fiscal deficit and government debt, is heavily
pressuring the Lebanese economy.
The lebanese business and political model
Since October 1992, the Lebanese business model can be summarized as
follows: Depositors place their money in the bank, which deposits most of
those funds at BDL, receiving high returns. Banks also acquire treasury
bills from the government, which, in turn, spends money on wages, salaries,
and debt servicing to those very same banks. Due to BDL’s and the
government’s need for a constant influx of money, the central bank raises
interest rates to attract fresh US dollars. Consequently, banks ensure
financial and social stability by covering public-sector salaries and by
providing high returns on investment to its shareholders. In sum, this
creates a system of dependency between the central bank, commercial banks,
and the Lebanese government, in which the commercial banks and public
servants benefit at the expense of the wider public. In this case, both the
central bank and the government are in deficit. More than 90 percent of
Lebanon’s debt is held by domestic banks. This model helps Lebanon maintain
the USD/LL parity but leads to an economy of clientelism under a “rentier
model,” where the central bank gets fresh capital from the commercial banks
in return for high interest rates. The Lebanese business model is reflected
in cumulative government expenditures. From 1993-2016, the interest paid on
debt amounted to $70 billion, a full 33 percent total government spending,
at the expense of other vital spending priorities such as infrastructure
development. Meanwhile, domestic banks hold over 90 percent of Lebanese
debt, with this debt representing about 60 percent of banks total assets.
The economic equation is tied in with the political one. In 2017, Michel
Aoun, an ally of Syria and Hezbollah, was elected president after a two-year
vacancy in the position. His mandate has thus far resulted in two major
domestic decisions. First, a new electoral law, which secured for the March
8 camp a clear majority in Parliament. Second, increased public spending
through raised salaries for public servants, which applied more pressure to
the country’s economy and sharply increased the state budget deficit.
Hariri’s resignation from the premiership, announced last November from
Saudi Arabia and since rescinded, was considered by many to be an action
taken by the Saudis against the Lebanese economy. The Lebanese public
understood this “resignation” as a Saudi withdrawal from the Lebanese
market. This action led to a lack of confidence and trust between local
actors. The inter-bank interest rate reached unprecedentedly high levels and
treasury bills with 10-year maturity dropped to record lows, resulting in a
sharp decrease of confidence in the Lebanese market, with capital inflow
failing to increase.
Europe and fears of a second refugee wave
The willingness of the international community to assist Lebanon rests on
many political and strategic considerations. Internationally, and during a
politically volatile time for Europe, partly due to the refugee influx,
Lebanon’s strategic location in the Eastern Mediterranean positions it as a
last bastion before mainland Europe. Europe is witnessing the rise of
right-wing parties, largely triggered by the large-scale arrival of refugees
in recent years. Lebanon is currently hosting more than 1 million Syrians
and anywhere between 175,000 to 450,000 Palestinian refugees. In this sense,
CEDRE can be seen as an attempt by European countries to contain the ongoing
refugee crisis by bringing some stability to Lebanon.
After delving into historic international efforts to revive Lebanon, and
taking a closer look at CEDRE, it remains to be seen whether the most recent
international donors’ conference will prove successful. Previous
international conferences failed due to outside stakeholders’ interventions,
mainly from the Syrian regime, and intransigence by major players in
Lebanon. In this regard, it is also necessary to take account of Europe’s
anti-migration stance as well as Iran’s increased stake in Lebanese
politics. In the end, reforms needed to unlock CEDRE financing and put
Lebanon back on the path toward renewed economic growth and monetary
stability will require compromises from political and economic Lebanese
stakeholders, and a willingness to break from past behavior. This will be
the biggest factor in determining whether CEDRE will eventually be viewed as
the catalyst for a more dynamic Lebanese economic model, or as another
missed opportunity to bring economic progress and desperately needed
stability to the country.
Israel seen behind
WhatsApp warning to Beirut residents about Hezbollah facility
تايمز أو إزرائيل: يبدو أن إسرائيل كانت وراء رسائل واتسأب لسكان بيروت
The Times Of Israel/October 04/18
Message sent to thousands in Lebanese capital tells them to take
precautionary measures because of terror group’s site near their homes
Thousands of residents in Beirut’s southern suburbs received WhatsApp
messages overnight Tuesday-Wednesday, believed to have been sent by Israel,
warning them that their homes are in close proximity to a Hezbollah weapons
facility, Israel’s Channel 10 news reported on Wednesday night. The alleged
site is not one of the three alleged Hezbollah weapons factories exposed by
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his speech to the UN last week, the TV
report said.
Israel’s Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman had said Tuesday that Israel has
information on additional Iranian and Hezbollah military sites and would
release it at the appropriate time. However, Israeli military officials
refused to comment on the exposure of the latest site, Channel 10 said.It
said the site described in the WhatsApp messages is in the heart of a
residential area, close to a school, to the St. George’s Hospital and to the
Spanish Embassy — which are in the Lebanese capital’s Hadath area. It
speculated that the site, like the other three alleged Hezbollah facilities
detailed by Netanyahu in his address to the UN General Assembly last
Thursday, is a Hezbollah missile factory.
The WhatsApp message sent overnight was unsigned. “Important message,” it
reportedly stated. “Near your home, a site belonging to Hezbollah has been
located for some time. You are advised to take precautionary measures.”
“Apparently Israel is working hard to keep this issue high on the Lebanese
public agenda,” the Israeli TV report said, “perhaps in order to prompt
Hezbollah to move those sites, which would produce further intelligence.”The
report said that the exposure of details regarding further sites was also
now anticipated. Liberman told journalists on Tuesday that Israel has “a lot
of information at hand, and we are still choosing the right time to reveal
[intelligence on additional] facilities both in Iran as well as in
Beirut.”In his UN speech, Netanyahu detailed an alleged “secret atomic
warehouse” in Tehran and used placards to show the plenum what he said were
three sites hidden near Beirut’s international airport housing precision
missiles for the Hezbollah terror group.
“In Lebanon, Iran is directing Hezbollah to build secret sites to convert
inaccurate projectiles into precision-guided missiles, missiles that can
target deep inside Israel within an accuracy of ten meters,” he said.
“Hezbollah is deliberately using the innocent people of Beirut as human
shields. They have placed three of these missile conversion sites alongside
Beirut’s international airport,” he said, and added, “Israel knows what you
are doing, Israel knows where you are doing it, and Israel will not let you
get away with it,” he said.Netanyahu intended to reveal further intelligence
material in the speech on Thursday, but the security establishment
recommended that he not do so, Channel 10 news said Saturday night.
Lebanon has denied Netanyahu’s claims about Hezbollah missile factories, and
its foreign minister, Gibran Bassil, on Monday took dozens of foreign
diplomats on a tour of the alleged areas, seeking to discredit the Israeli
allegations.
Later Monday, Netanyahu accused Hezbollah of “brazenly lying” to the
international community over the secret weapons facilities in and around
Beirut.
He said Bassil took 73 foreign envoys on a “fraudulent propaganda tour” of
the alleged missile sites, where he failed to show them the underground
facilities where Hezbollah is allegedly manufacturing precision-guided
missiles.
“Hezbollah is brazenly lying to the international community by means of the
fraudulent propaganda tour of the Lebanese foreign minister who took
ambassadors to the soccer field [one of the alleged missile sites] but
refrained from taking them to the nearby underground precision-missile
production facility,” Netanyahu said. Bassil led the ambassadors around a
pool complex and the sports stadium in a bid to disprove the Israeli
accusations. “Today Lebanon is raising [its] voice by addressing all
countries of the world… to refute Israel’s allegations,” Bassil said.
Israel’s Channel 10 news said Monday night that Lebanon feared Israel may
attack the sites.
Netanyahu said the envoys “should ask themselves why [Lebanese authorities]
waited three days to give them a tour.”
One of the alleged sites he mentioned in his UN speech is located under a
soccer field used by a Hezbollah-sponsored team; another is just north of
the Rafik Hariri International Airport; and the third is underneath the
Beirut port and less than 500 meters from the airport’s tarmac.
Hezbollah, Netanyahu said, took pains to clear out the exposed facilities so
that foreign diplomats could tour the area.
“It’s saddening that the Lebanese government is sacrificing the safety of
its citizens while covering for Hezbollah, which has taken Lebanon hostage
in its aggression toward Israel,” said Netanyahu.
Earlier Monday, the Israeli military released a video noting that three days
had passed since Netanyahu detailed the presence of the alleged facilities.
“In three days you can clear out a precision-missile factory, invite foreign
ambassadors and hope that the world will fall for it.”
It urged the international community not to be duped by what it said were
“Hezbollah’s lies.”
The Russian ambassador to Lebanon, Alexander Zasypkin, described the tour as
“very good.”
“On the diplomatic and political spheres, there are many statements,” he
told The Associated Press. “What we saw today are facts. There is a club and
stadium. I can’t imagine a secret thing happening in these places. We saw
that with our own eyes.”
Hezbollah, whose forces control south Lebanon bordering Israel and Beirut’s
southern suburbs where the airport is located, has not officially reacted to
the accusation.
Bassil lashed out at Israel, which he said had “violated our land, air and
marine space 1,417 times in the last eight months.”
Israel was attempting “to justify another violation of UN resolutions and to
justify another aggression on a sovereign country,” he said.
The Jewish state has fought several conflicts against Hezbollah, the last in
2006.
Bassil said his government would not allow rocket facilities near the
airport and that Hezbollah is “wiser” than to place them there. He said
Netanyahu’s claims were based on “inaccurate” estimates without any
“compelling evidence.”
“Lebanon demands that Israel ceases its madness,” he said.
Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah recently boasted that his group now
possesses “highly accurate” missiles despite Israeli attempts to prevent it
from acquiring such weapons.
Bassil acknowledged Hezbollah’s claims, but said “this doesn’t mean that
those missiles are present in the vicinity of Beirut airport.”
Soon after Netanyahu’s speech Thursday, the IDF released satellite images of
the sites that it says are being used by Hezbollah to hide underground
precision-missile production facilities.
The target of last month’s Israeli airstrike, in which a Russian spy plane
was inadvertently shot down by Syrian air defenses, was machinery used in
the production of precision missiles en route to Hezbollah, The Times of
Israel learned.
According to Netanyahu, these precision missiles are capable of striking
with 10 meters (32 feet) of their given target.
Hezbollah is believed to have an arsenal of between 100,000 and 150,000
rockets and missiles, though the vast majority are thought to lack precision
technology.
The army said the facilities are “another example of Iranian entrenchment in
the region and the negative influence of Iran.”
According to the Israel Defense Forces, Hezbollah began working on the
surface-to-surface missile facilities last year.
Reports that Iran was constructing underground missile conversion factories
in Lebanon first emerged in March 2017.
Since then, Israeli officials have repeatedly said that Israel would not
tolerate such facilities.
In January, Netanyahu said Lebanon “is becoming a factory for
precision-guided missiles that threaten Israel. These missiles pose a grave
threat to Israel, and we cannot accept this threat.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-seen-behind-whatsapp-warning-to-beirut-residents-about-hezbollah-facility/
The Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News
published
on
October 04-05/18
Paris Bomb Plot Claims
Cloud Iran President's Hopes of EU Help
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/18/French
accusations that Iran was behind a foiled bomb plot near Paris could not
have come at a worse time for its moderate president and his hopes of EU
support against crippling new U.S. sanctions.Tuesday's allegations are a
blow to President Hassan Rouhani, and hit just as European governments are
working on a mechanism to allow Iran to continue to reap the economic
benefits of compliance with a landmark 2015 nuclear deal abandoned by U.S.
President Donald Trump in May. "Such allegations, whether true or not, at
this moment of time will serve only to harm both Rouhani's government and
the Iranian nation, and political moderation in Iran in general," said Saeed
Leylaz, a lecturer at Tehran's Shahid Beheshti University. The European
parties to the nuclear agreement -- Britain, France and Germany -- have made
no secret of their anger at the unilateral move by Trump and his
administration to withdraw and seek to enforce renewed U.S. sanctions
internationally. Iran was quick to deny the French allegations that Tehran
was behind the attempted bombing of a June 30 rally held by an exiled
opposition group, the People's Mujahedeen of Iran (MEK), dubbed "terrorists"
by Tehran. Iran "completely and forcefully" rejects the accusations, foreign
ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi told AFP. But the allegations echo the
Trump administration's charges against Tehran -- that it is a state sponsor
of "terrorism" abroad -- and the French government's response -- asset
freezes on the intelligence ministry and two of its alleged operatives --
mirror those taken by the U.S. administration. "Any tension between Iran and
Europe -- especially France -- is in line with the wishes of radicals in
Tehran and Washington and Tel Aviv and Riyadh," said Leylaz, who is seen as
close to Iran's reformists.
"I am certain this (the allegation) is a source of worry for the government,
because it happened while the Islamic republic needs every single relation
and link with the West minus the United States," he added.
Iran needs EU
Rouhani, who was re-elected to a second four-year term last year on the
promise of greater economic dividends from his government's opening to
Washington, was already reeling from the economic fallout of Trump's
abandonment of the nuclear deal. A precipitous slide in the value of the
rial against the dollar hit the purchasing power of ordinary Iranians, while
an anticipated boost to Western investment failed to materialize, hitting
plans to renew Iran's antiquated infrastructure. Rouhani had counted on EU
governments to work with the other parties to the deal -- China and Russia
-- to mitigate the impact of the U.S. policy U-turn but the French
allegation has now put those hopes in jeopardy. The allegations were swiftly
seized on by the Trump administration as vindication of its hard line.
"France taking strong action against failed Iranian terrorist plot in Paris
-- Tehran needs to know this outrageous behavior will not be tolerated," the
White House's National Security Council tweeted. Rouhani's government sees
the hand of the Trump administration behind the allegations, convinced
Washington is determined to undermine European resistance to the U.S.
abandonment of the JCPOA, the official acronym for the nuclear deal.
"Some centers of power do not approve of Iran's good relations with Europe
-- that it is staying in the JCPOA and that its economic ties with the EU
continue," Ghasemi said.
Who benefits?
Prominent conservative analyst Amir Mohebbian voiced skepticism about the
French allegations, saying it made no sense for Iran to get involved in an
operation that so clearly endangered its own interests. "There is no logical
reason for the Islamic republic to take such actions in the present
sensitive situation," Mohebbian said. "Iran is acting transparently. It has
created transparent and close diplomatic relations with Europe. "Iran does
not want to do something that will damage these good relations."Mohebbian
said the allegations were deliberately timed to cause maximum damage to
Iran's foreign policy interests. "The possibility of an intelligence trap
for damaging Iran's relations with the European Union... is not
far-fetched," he said. "I am not aware of the legal aspects of the
allegations, but it is clear that the beneficiary of these events is the MEK,"
he said. Senior members of Rouhani's government have gone further, accusing
the MEK itself of being behind the alleged plot. Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif said it was a "false flag ploy" by the MEK, which has been
outlawed in Iran since 1981 and was on the European Union's terrorism
blacklist until 2009.
What Happened to Jamal
Khashoggi? Conflicting Reports Deepen a Mystery
Carlotta Gall/The New York Times/October 04/18
ISTANBUL — The mystery deepened Wednesday about the fate of a veteran Saudi
journalist who entered the country’s consulate in Istanbul on Tuesday
afternoon and has not been seen since. The journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, a
sharp critic of the Saudi leadership, went to the consulate to obtain a
document he needed to get married, but never came out, his fiancée and
several close friends said. On Wednesday, the Saudi government said he had
left the consulate, the Turkish government said he was still inside, and his
fiancée and friends said he was still missing. His fiancée, Hatice, who
asked that her surname not be published out of concern for her safety,
waited for him outside the consulate until after midnight Tuesday and
returned when the consulate reopened on Wednesday morning. She said she had
not seen or heard from Mr. Khashoggi since he entered the consulate around
1:30 p.m. on Tuesday, and believes he has been detained by the Saudi
government.The Saudi government, however, said that reports that Mr.
Khashoggi “went missing inside the Saudi consulate” in Istanbul “are
false.”“Mr. Khashoggi visited the consulate to request paperwork related to
his marital status and exited shortly thereafter,” a Saudi official said,
speaking on the condition of anonymity in accordance with diplomatic
protocol. Mr. Khashoggi “is not in the consulate nor in Saudi custody,” the
official said. The disappearance presents Turkish officials with a sharp
diplomatic challenge. Relations have not been smooth with Saudi Arabia since
Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, sided with Qatar in a dispute
among the rich Arab Gulf States a year ago. Mr. Erdogan’s national security
adviser and spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, told reporters Wednesday that the
Turkish authorities were working on the case. “Our related units are
following the issue,” he said, according to the Turkish news media.
“According to information we have, this person, who is a Saudi citizen, is
still at the Istanbul consulate of Saudi Arabia.” A State Department
official said the United States was closely following the case and seeking
information on it.
Turkish and international reporters gathered Wednesday outside the
consulate, a two-story ocher-colored building behind high walls on a leafy
side-street in Istanbul’s business district. Police barriers, a long-term
security feature, blocked the street.
Mr. Khashoggi’s fiancée was still clutching the two telephones he entrusted
to her when he went inside, waiting for him to reappear. “He did not say it,
but he was worried,” she said in an interview on the side of the street. The
consulate had been polite and cooperative, she said, but Mr. Khashoggi had
been “stressed and sad” that he was forced to enter the consulate to obtain
the papers he needed. He had told a friend the day before that he feared he
could be kidnapped and returned to Saudi Arabia if he entered the consulate.
Members of the Turk-Arab Media Association, of which Mr. Khashoggi is a
member, said they believed he was still inside the consulate building. The
Turkish police who provide security for the consulate checked their security
cameras and did not see Mr. Khashoggi leave the consulate on foot, according
to Turan Kislakci, a friend of Mr. Khashoggi’s who is head of the
association.
But he and others said that diplomatic cars had been moving in and out of
the consulate since Tuesday. Their fear is that Mr. Khashoggi, who has been
living in self-imposed exile since last year, has been or could be spirited
away to Saudi Arabia. As Saudi Arabia’s day-to-day ruler, Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman, has consolidated power, the government has arrested
hundreds of clerics, activists and businessmen, some of whom were detained
outside the country and forcibly repatriated.
Mr. Khashoggi, who was a prominent Saudi
journalist and an adviser to senior government officials, had been close to
the ruling elite until he split with the government last year. He has since
become an active critic of the government and was living in Washington.
Having divorced his wife, who had remained in Saudi Arabia, he went to the
Saudi consulate on Tuesday to obtain a document certifying that he was no
longer married so he could marry his Turkish fiancée.
S-300 in Syria to 'Establish New Reality'... Russian Plans for Missile
Umbrella
Moscow – Raed Jabr/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 October, 2018/Moscow
confirmed that the situation in Syria has entered a new stage that seeks to
prevent violation of Syrian airspace. This has taken place after Russia has
delivered S-300, sophisticated missile systems, despite objections and
threats from Israel and Washington. Military sources reported that the
Russian Ministry of Defense plans to promote and deploy an integrated
defense system covering all Syrian territory. Israeli threats and hints that
the missile systems could be destroyed if they reached the Syrian army did
not succeed in dissuading Moscow from fulfilling its decision to deliver
S-300 missile system to Damascus. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told
President Vladimir Putin during a meeting broadcast by Rossiya 24 TV on
Wednesday: “The work was finished a day ago,” including a total of four
launch platforms. Shoigu said Russia had supplied Syria with 49 pieces of
equipment as part of the delivery of the S-300 air defense system meant to
boost security of the Russian taskforce in that country. “We have completed
the delivery of S-300 systems. It included 49 pieces of equipment, including
radars, control vehicles, and four launchers," he said. He said it would
take three months to train the Syrian military to operate the new air
defense systems while the integration of Russian and Syrian air defense
assets into a single automated system will be completed by October 20. The
Russian Defense Ministry released a video of S-300 air defense systems being
unloaded in Syria from a Russian-made Antonov ‘An-124’ Ruslan transport
aircraft. The planes, used by the Russian Air Force as well as several cargo
operators, were spotted by hobbyists who track aircraft movements (also
known as aircraft spotters), on the Russia-Syria route over the past several
days. The first Ruslan plane was spotted arriving at the Hmeimim Air Base
near Latakia in Syria on Thursday evening. Shoigu said that Moscow will take
a number of measures to boost the safety of its troops in Syria, including
the deliveries of the S-300 systems. This comes in the wake of the crash of
an Il-20 military plane off the coast of Syria, which Russia believes Israel
was responsible for.
Syria: Sweida Tensions Rise After ISIS Executes Captive Young Woman
Damascus/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 October, 2018/Syria’s Druze majority
Sweida southern province witnessed rising tensions as protests broke out on
Wednesday after ISIS militants killed a young woman from a group of local
captives. A local news page broadcast footage on Tuesday showing ISIS
militants gunning down a young lady identified as 25-year-old Tharwat Fadel
Abu Ammar. ISIS filmed the lead-up to the execution and published a photo of
the victim showing that the execution was carried out inside a confined
residential room, performed and watched over by ISIS militants in military
uniform carrying individual weapons. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
(SOHR) noted that there was a committee in Sweida seeking to mediate with
ISIS, and that Russian authorities and the Syrian regime had been involved
in discussions. The human rights group said it was surprised by the
execution taking place before any change or development taking place with
the negotiations. One of the ISIS militants partaking in the execution
threatened that the groups’ demands must be met in negotiations or the
remaining captives will face a fate similar to that of Thawrat. After his
statement, the young woman was shot dead. Slaying the young woman comes at a
time the Syrian regime is pressuring the terror group in one of its last
enclaves in the province’s eastern countryside and US-backed Syrian
Democratic forces pushing against ISIS’ final pockets alongside the
Syrian-Iraqi borders. In short, ISIS atrocities come in line with the group
losing ground on multiple fronts. Protests broke out within the vicinity of
the Sweida Governorate building as locals, joint by religious and social
activist figures, demanded immediate action for the release of ISIS-held
captives.
As Clock Ticks, Little
Progress Visible on Idlib Deal
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/18/The clock is ticking to
implement a Russian-Turkish deal for the Syrian rebel region of Idlib, but
its terms remain hazy and little has changed on the ground. The accord,
reached on September 17, aims to stave off a massive regime assault on the
last major rebel bastion by creating a 15 to 20 kilometer buffer zone
ringing the area. All rebels in the demilitarized zone must withdraw heavy
arms by October 10, and radical groups must leave by October 15. But as the
deadline draws closer, there has been no indication either condition is
being implemented. The main Ankara-backed rebel alliance, the National
Liberation Front, cautiously welcomed the agreement but has denied beginning
to pull out any of its heavy weapons. And the region's most powerful force,
the jihadist-led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has yet to announce its stance. "On
the ground, essentially, there's no movement. There's no handover of weapons
or territory," said Haid Haid, a research fellow at the London-based Chatham
House. What is happening, however, is a flurry of negotiations among Russia,
Turkey, rebel groups and hardliners to hash out the accord's finer details
and bring Idlib's jihadists on board. The thorny questions being discussed
include precisely where the buffer would be established, who would patrol
it, and whether weapons systems would be simply re-stationed in other rebel
zones or handed over to Ankara. Once those stumbling blocks are sorted out,
Haid told AFP, implementation can be quick. "In my view, the deal will be
implemented on time, but with some amendments," he said.
Devil in the details
The deal was announced in the Russian resort of Sochi after a tete-a-tete
between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep
Tayyip Erdogan. It was welcomed by world powers, relief agencies and the
United Nations, which all hoped it would avert a feared humanitarian
catastrophe of unprecedented proportions. But apart from deadlines, very few
details were made public. "One possibility is that Turkey and Russia already
agreed on all the details but did not announce them," said Haid. "The second
possibility is they agreed on the broad outlines without details," allowing
Ankara to untangle the knots with Idlib's factions, he said. On Wednesday,
Putin said Moscow was still "working in solidarity with Turkey" on Idlib.
"We see that they, too, have the most serious attitude towards the deal and
are fulfilling their obligations," he said. He spoke hours after Ankara
dispatched a new military convoy of vehicles and troops into northern Syria
to be stationed at the monitoring posts it already operates in the area. The
burden of implementing the agreement has fallen on Turkey, which shares a
border with Idlib province and has long backed rebel forces there. The
toughest task would be bringing jihadists including HTS, led by former
al-Qaida members, on board. HTS, jihadists from the Turkestan Islamic Party
(TIP) and current al-Qaida outfit Hurras al-Deen control more than
two-thirds of the planned buffer zone. While Hurras al-Deen has rejected the
deal, HTS and TIP have yet to take a position -- which Haid sees as a sign
that they could be negotiating with Turkey for better terms. "No news could
be more positive than negative," he said. "This area is very important for
HTS. It has economic benefits and guarantees the group's sustainability. If
it hands over this area, what does it still have?"
'No progress'
Moscow has accused HTS and other "radical fighters" of trying to torpedo the
accord. Foreign ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova said Thursday they "fear
finding themselves isolated by the Russian-Turkey deal, and are committing
all sorts of provocations and aggravating the situation."
Even as it works to persuade heavyweight HTS, Ankara is in talks with other
rebel groups on their objections to the deal. After initially welcoming the
accord, the NLF refused any Russian presence in the buffer zone, which Putin
said would be monitored by Russian military police and Turkish troops.
"There's no progress on the deal, except the issue of the patrols. They will
only be Turkish," NLF spokesman Naji Mustafa told AFP. "For the
demilitarized zone, our heavy weapons aren't in this area anyway," he said.
Other rebels fear that the accord could cost them their last major
stronghold. Jaish al-Izza, a formerly U.S.-backed faction, rejected the
accord on the grounds that it ate away at rebel but not regime territory to
create the buffer zone. Damascus, for its part, still hopes to recapture
every inch of Syrian territory. In an interview aired Tuesday, Syrian
Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said he hoped the deal would prove to be a
"step towards the liberation of Idlib."
Jerusalem: Israeli Settlers Take Over Building, Land
Plot in Silwan Neighborhood
Tel Aviv- Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 October, 2018/Wadi Hilweh Information
Center in Silwan, a local watch group based in the Old Jerusalem city Silwan,
reported that settlers acting under the protection of Israeli police stormed
and took over a building owned by the Palestinian family Fatihah. The owners
are currently living in the United States. Israeli forces first evicted the
Doda family which has been a tenant of the real-estate, which consists of a
building with two 160 m2 apartments and an 800 m2 agricultural land
attachment, for over three decades. The land plot had rich olive and fig
trees planted across the plain. The center added that the settlers set up a
gate at the entrance real-estate in preparation for construction activity.
Doda family members complained that settlers forced them out of the
apartments, without allowing them to take personal belongings from their
residences. No eviction notice was issued or delivered, family members
added. Jerusalem governor Adnan Ghaith said that the seizure of the property
and forced eviction constitute gruesome oppression which is taking place
with government support across all Palestinian territories. West Bank
settlements make for the largest and fastest-growing Israeli occupation
campaigns since the 1967 Six-Day War. Construction works 11,000 housing
units in the settlements are underway. The Israeli government is trying to
cover up settlements springing up by not recognizing the projects on any
official plan. A settler association in Elad city, protected by Israeli
occupation forces, illegally took over a building and a land plot in Silwan
village. Israel’s West Bank settlements are growing exponentially by virtue
of the Israeli government justifying the growth as the construction of new
neighborhoods and not ‘new settlements.’
Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman confirmed on Wednesday that there
were 11,000 housing units currently under construction in the settlements.
Since the middle of the last decade, consecutive Israeli governments upheld
claims that they are not establishing new settlements. Former Prime Minister
Ehud Olmert pledged this at the Annapolis conference in 2007. However,
reports show that all many Israeli governments have appallingly allowed for
the construction of new settlements at a short distance from existing ones.
Israel’s interior ministry describes these new settlements as neighborhood
extensions for old settlements, in order to dodge the need for government
approval and less legal requirements to a civil construction permit.
Merkel Vows German Fight against Anti-Semitism on
Israel Visit
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/18/Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke
of Germany's "everlasting responsibility" to oppose anti-Semitism during a
visit to Israel on Thursday as she and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
brushed past their differences and promoted cooperation between their
nations.The one-day visit by Merkel and members of her cabinet was part of
German-Israeli government consultations held regularly, but came after
Netanyahu's harsh criticism of European countries over their efforts to keep
alive the Iran nuclear deal. Germany and other European countries have also
repeatedly hit out at Israeli settlement building in the occupied West Bank
and warned over threats to remaining prospects for a two-state solution to
the conflict with the Palestinians. But both leaders seemed determined to
have the visit run smoothly, greeting each other warmly after Merkel's
arrival on Wednesday night and touring an innovation exhibit together on
Thursday. Merkel began the day with a visit to Israel's Holocaust memorial
high in the hills above Jerusalem. After laying a wreath in the Yad Vashem
memorial's solemn Hall of Remembrance, where an eternal flame burns, she
spoke of Germany's responsibility as the perpetrator of the Holocaust. "From
this comes the everlasting responsibility of Germany to remember this crime
and to oppose anti-Semitism, xenophobia, hatred and violence," she said,
reading out the message she wrote in the memorial's guest book. Later after
receiving an honorary doctorate from Israel's Haifa University, she answered
questions from students and touched on the Iran nuclear deal. Netanyahu has
urged European nations to follow the lead of U.S. President Donald Trump and
withdraw from the accord with his country's main enemy.
Germany, like other signatories to the deal, says it is preventing Iran from
obtaining nuclear weapons for now. Merkel noted the Iranian presence in
neighboring Syria and how that has exacerbated the threat from Israel's
enemy. She said the nuclear deal would be discussed further with Netanyahu.
"On the principle that everything must be done to prevent nuclear armament,
we absolutely agree," she said.
'She's lost hope'
Germany says the joint government meeting on Thursday afternoon will focus
on economic ties, innovation and technology, while noting that the
consultations have been in place for 10 years. Felix Klein, who heads the
German government's fight against anti-Semitism, is part of the delegation.
Fears over a resurgence in anti-Semitism in Germany are expected to be
discussed. Merkel said ahead of the trip that there was "unfortunately a lot
of anti-Semitism" in Germany, while also noting the two countries were
linked by a "unique relationship."There was however no shortage of
controversy in the run up to the visit. Netanyahu's criticism of Europe
related to Iran has been especially strong, and last week at the U.N.
General Assembly he accused EU nations of "appeasement." At the same time,
Germany has remained steadfast in its support for a two-state solution and
in recent weeks joined calls against Israel's planned demolition of a
Bedouin village located in a strategic area of the occupied West Bank. On
Wednesday, children from the village, Khan al-Ahmar, held signs with
Merkel's picture outside the German representative office in Ramallah to ask
for help. Speaking to students from Haifa University, Merkel denied a report
that she threatened to cancel the trip if Israel moved ahead with demolition
of the village beforehand. Yoram Ben-Zeev, a former Israeli ambassador to
Germany, said Merkel would likely only "go through the motions" during the
visit on issues related to the conflict with the Palestinians.
"I think that for the time being she's lost hope that things can move," Ben-Zeev
told AFP, noting Trump's confusing statements on the conflict, Netanyahu's
right-wing stance and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' unpopularity.
"Why should she put her hands in the fire?"The last joint government
consultations in 2017 were postponed, with scheduling conflicts cited as the
official reason. There were reports however that Merkel was unhappy with a
law passed then related to Israeli settlement building in the occupied West
Bank. The same year, a visit to Israel by Germany's then-foreign minister
Sigmar Gabriel ended in acrimony when Netanyahu canceled their meeting.
Netanyahu made the decision after Gabriel refused to call off meetings with
rights groups critical of Israel's government.
U.S., UK, Canada, Netherlands, Australia Accuse Russia
of Global Hacking Conspiracy
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/18/The U.S. Justice
Department Thursday indicted seven agents of Russia's GRU military
intelligence agency as part of a joint crackdown with Britain and the
Netherlands on a series of major hacking plots attributed to Russia. John
Demers, U.S. Assistant Attorney General for National Security, said the
hacking targets included the Organization for Prohibition of Chemical
Weapons (OPCW), global sports bodies as well as the U.S. nuclear energy
company Westinghouse. "Nations like Russia and others that engage in
malicious and norm-shattering cyber and influence activities should
understand the continuing and steadfast resolve of the United States and its
allies to prevent, disrupt and deter such unaccountable conduct," Demers
told a news conference. Canada said it too was targeted by Russian cyber
attacks, citing breaches at its center for ethics in sports and at the
Montreal-based World Anti-doping Agency. "The government of Canada assesses
with high confidence that the Russian military's intelligence arm, the GRU,
was responsible" for these cyber attacks, the foreign ministry said in a
statement. Earlier in the day, Dutch security services said they had
thwarted a Russian cyber attack on the global chemical weapons watchdog. The
Netherlands expelled four alleged Russian agents in April after uncovering a
spy-novel-style bid by Russia's GRU military intelligence agency to target
the Organization for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in The Hague.
The allegation came hours after Britain and Australia separately blamed the
GRU for some major hacking plots including the U.S. Democratic Party and
world sport's anti-Doping authority.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly and angrily rejected similar
charges.
In the Dutch case, the Russians allegedly set up a car full of electronic
equipment in the car park of a Marriott hotel next to the OPCW and tried to
hack its wifi system and computer passwords. At the time of the attack the
OPCW was investigating the nerve agent poisoning of former Russian spy
Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury, England. Dutch officials
said it was not clear if the cyber operation was linked to that. But
Russians were being trailed by Dutch and British intelligence and left a
trail of evidence including a laptop and a taxi receipt from GRU
headquarters to Moscow airport, the Dutch said.
In a sign of the network's reach, a laptop belonging to one of the four was
linked to Brazil, Switzerland and Malaysia -- while the activities in
Malaysia were related to the investigation into the 2014 shooting down of
flight MH17 over Ukraine.
'Unacceptable cyber activities'
The Dutch and British prime ministers Mark Rutte and Theresa May in a joint
statement accused the GRU of "disregard for global values" and lashed out at
the Russian agency's "unacceptable cyber activities."The Dutch government
said it had summoned the Russian ambassador over the incident. NATO chief
Jens Stoltenberg separately warned Russia to halt its "reckless" behavior.
Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, speaking about the
British and Australian claims, said that the allegations had been mixed
together "indiscriminately.""That's a hell of a mix for a perfume," she told
reporters, in an apparently mocking reference to the fact that the Novichok
nerve agent used on the Skripals was contained in a fake Nina Ricci perfume
bottle. In a dramatic news conference in The Hague, the head of the Dutch
MIVD intelligence service, Major-General Onno Eichelsheim, said that the men
traveled to Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport on April 10 on Russian diplomatic
passports, and were met by a Russian embassy official. He showed passports
identifying the Russians as Alexeksei Morenets, Evgenii Serebriakov, Oleg
Sotknikov and Alexey Minin. The Russians had originally taken a taxi from a
GRU base in Moscow to the airport, for which Dutch agents later found a
receipt from their hotel. Some of their mobile phones were also activated in
Moscow near the agency's headquarters. On April 11 they then hired a Citroen
C3 and scouted the area around the OPCW in The Hague -- all the time being
watched by Dutch intelligence. The Russians then on April 13 set up in the
Marriott Hotel next door to the OPCW and took photos, while parking the car
at the hotel with the boot facing the OPCW, he said. In the boot was
electronic equipment to intercept the OPCW's wifi as well as log in codes at
the organization, with the antenna hidden in the back of the car facing the
OPCW. Dutch agents then swooped on the men. "They were trying to commit a
close access hack operation," he said. "We intercepted it and expelled the
four men from the country. It was a successful operation." Inside the car
the Dutch found the laptop, the men's mobiles and rubbish that they had
taken from their room, including the Moscow taxi receipt. "They were clearly
not here on holiday," said Eichelsheim.
Wild West
Dutch Defense Minister Ank Bijleveld told the news conference that "normally
we don't reveal this type of counter-intelligence operation," but they had
made an exception because of the seriousness of the incident. "The Dutch
government finds the involvement of these intelligence operatives extremely
worrisome," Bijleveld told a news conference. The laptop revealed that the
agents had also made searches for the OPCW Spiez laboratory in Switzerland
-- which the Swiss last month said had been targeted. The dramatic
developments came hours after Britain's National Cyber Security Center (NCSC)
and the Australian government pointed the blame directly at alleged GRU
front operations such as Fancy Bear and APT 28 for a string of worldwide
attacks. But British government sources said the NCSC has assessed with
"high confidence" that the GRU was "almost certainly" behind the DNC hack
that some Hillary Clinton supporters claimed helped tip the U.S. election in
Donald Trump's favor. Batches of DNC emails were later published by
WikiLeaks. U.S. Special Counsel Robert Mueller in July indicted 12 Russian
GRU officers in connection with the DNC attack. British sources said the GRU
was also behind BadRabbit ransomware that caused disruptions on the Kiev
metro. British sources said a third strike, on the World Anti-Doping Agency
(WADA), resulted in the release of the medical files of global sports stars
in August 2017, including tennis' Serena and Venus Williams and Britain's
Tour de France winning cyclists Chris Froome and Bradley Wiggins.
U.N. Chief Hopes for
'Swift' Formation of Iraqi Government
Agence France Presse/Thursday, 4 October, 2018/United Nations
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says he hopes for the "swift" formation
of an "inclusive" Iraqi government following the election of the country's
president."The secretary-general hopes the election of the president will
pave the way to the swift formation of an inclusive government in line with
constitutional timelines," Guterres said in a statement that also
congratulated Barham Salih on his election as the Iraq's new president.Salih
tasked Adel Abdel Mahdi -- who is seen as an independent -- with forming the
next Iraqi government late Tuesday, only hours after being elected.The prime
minister designate faces an uphill task of bridging differences among
sharply-divided Iraqi political parties. The largest bloc traditionally
appoints the prime minister and presides over the formation of the next
government, but the exact contours of a new governing coalition are yet to
be drawn. Outgoing prime minister Haider al-Abadi threw in the towel last
month after weeks of deadly protests sparked by anger at the poor services
in Iraq's south cost his fragile alliance the support of populist Shiite
cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.
Iraq: Smooth Transition of Power Offers Glimmer of Hope
Baghdad- Hamza Mustafa/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 October, 2018/The new
Iraqi President, Barham Salih on Wednesday took over power from his
predecessor Fuad Masoum, and the newly-assigned prime minister Adel Abdul
Mahdi was praised by his predecessor Haidar al-Abadi, in what was Iraq’s
fourth peaceful transition of power since 2005.Masoum said in his speech
that practicing the powers in the past four years, away from any foreign
intervention, has revealed a series of constitutional gaps that were the
reason behind hindering the state’s affairs and its institutions. He saw
that the constitution needs an urgent revision and amendment for the sake of
developing and tackling the gaps as well as going in tandem with the global
legal developments. He stressed that the root of the current political
crisis was legal, especially with the absence of a constitutional amendments
committee. The scene in Baghdad on Wednesday was fascinating and the news of
electing a third Kurdish president for Iraq grabbed the headlines. Iraqi
politician Hassan Al-Alawi said, in a phone-call with Asharq Al-Awsat, that
Salih has good relations in the international level. He added: "He does not
have racist or sectarian tendencies. He has the ability to adapt to any new
surroundings. He is charismatic and forces people to cooperate with him."
Alawi pointed out that Salih is surrounded with a group of enemies whether
in Baghdad, Erbil or even his party's headquarter in Sulaymaniyah – however,
he is capable of overcoming most of these hardships.
Iraq: Sadr bloc won’t
take part in new cabinet
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 4 October 2018 /Two days
following the appointment of Adel Abdul Mahdi to head the Iraqi government,
Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr who heads Sairoon alliance, the biggest
parliamentary bloc, called upon his bloc members not to take any ministerial
posts. Abdul Mahdi was named two hours following the naming of moderate
Kurdish candidate Barham Salih to head the post of president of Iraq on
Tuesday. In a tweet on Wednesday, al-Sadr said that he succeeded in
appointing an independent figure for the prime minister position, pointing
out that he instructed his parliamentary bloc’s members not to be in the
coming new government, in order to give more options for Adel Abdul Mahdi to
form his government. Sadr expressed in his tweet his satisfaction in naming
Abdul Mahdi who is an independent figure and clean from government
corruption, as he said. He called on all political parties not to put
pressure on the options of Abdul Mahdi, so that he can form a cabinet free
from party quotas - sectarian and ethnic - while maintaining the diversity
of the Iraqi society. The Shiite leader gave the government of Abdul Mahdi a
full year to prove itself in front of the Iraqi people. In reference to the
outgoing government of Haidar al-Abadi, al-Sadr said: “The next government
will proceed with great strides towards building Iraq on the right bases, as
his predecessor tried, away from the exclusivity of authority and position
Washington to Withdraw From Vienna Protocol... PA Continues to Sue It
Ramallah- Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 October, 2018/The United
States has pulled out of the “optional protocol” under the 1961 Vienna
Convention of Diplomatic Relations to keep the Palestinians from suing the
US government at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, US
National Security Adviser John Bolton announced on Wednesday. “This is in
connection with a case brought by the so-called State of Palestine naming
the United States as a defendant, challenging our move of our embassy from
Tel Aviv to Jerusalem,” he stressed. The Vienna Convention is an
international treaty setting out diplomatic relations between states. It is
often cited as a means to provide diplomatic immunity. The Palestinians
argued that the US government’s placement of its embassy in Jerusalem
violated an international treaty and that it should be moved. Dr. Omar
Awadallah, head of public administration for UN human rights organizations
at the Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Asharq Al-Awsat that
the PA is not surprised from the US move. “We have reviewed all the
scenarios when we decided to sue the United States for its illegal move. One
of these scenarios is the withdrawal of the United States out of fear that
it will be prosecuted before the most important judicial body in the United
Nations,” he explained. “This withdrawal will not change anything. It will
not prevent us from continuing to sue the United States, and presumably does
not affect the case,” Awadallah said. "When the United States received the
case, it was a member of the protocol, and we are convinced that justice
will be served," he added. The ICJ confirmed on Friday that it had received
a complaint from the Palestinian State against the United States. Notably,
US President Donald Trump announced in September that he had decided to
relocate the US embassy to Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and opened the
embassy in May there. Palestine demands that the court order the United
States to withdraw its diplomatic mission from Jerusalem.
Arab Parliament Condemns Iranian Intervention in Yemen
Cairo- Sawsan Abu Hussein/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 4 October, 2018/The Arab
Parliament condemned the Iranian interference in Yemen, through its support
for the Houthis and threats to neighboring countries, particularly the
continued firing of ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia. In a statement
released on developments in Yemen at the end of the first meeting of the
third session in the second parliamentary term, the Arab Parliament asserted
the importance of reaching a peaceful solution to the Yemeni crisis based on
the Gulf initiative, outputs of the national dialogue, and the relevant UN
Security Council resolutions particularly no. 2216. The parliament
reiterated that the Houthis presented daily new evidence of their
unwillingness to engage in any serious efforts to settle the Yemeni crisis
peacefully and held them responsible for the continued suffering of the
Yemeni people. The parliament stressed the support of the Yemeni legitimacy
and the role played by the Arab Coalition for Restoring legitimacy in Yemen,
calling on the Arab institutions to assume their responsibilities in
bringing peace and security in Yemen. The statement also condemned the
planting of sea mines, booby-trapped boats and the targeting of oil tankers
in the Red Sea by the Houthi militia, saying that such acts fall under
terrorism and threaten international peace and security, and global trade
movement. The parliament called on Arab institutions to shoulder their
responsibility towards security and peace in Yemen.
AMCD Opposes US
Meeting with Sudan’s Military Chief of Staff
October 04/18/WASHINGTON, DC, USA /EINPresswire.com/ -- The
American Mideast Coalition for Democracy is expressing grave concern over
the US policy of gradual normalization of relations with Sudan. This
includes an invitation to Sudanese Army chief Lieutenant General Kamal Abdel
Marouf to come to the US for a counter-terrorism conference headed by US
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford. The
government of Sudan has been lobbying the US for years to remove its listing
as a state sponsor of terror, but AMCD stands in firm opposition.
“The genocidal campaign waged by the Bashir regime against the indigenous
African peoples in Sudan along with the forced Arabization and Islamization
of Southern Sudan, Darfur, the Blue Nile region and other areas is a
blood-soaked stain on the conscience of the world,” said AMCD co-chair John
Hajjar. “There is no way the US should be meeting with members of Omar Al-Bashir’s
military.” The US and Sudan have been growing closer in recent years with
the US acknowledging help from the regime with counter-terror operations on
the region. Sanctions were lifted by the Obama administration and Deputy
Secretary of State John Sullivan visited Khartoum last November to continue
the normalization process by pressing Bashir on the issue of human rights
abuse. This coming conference marks another milestone in the process of
removing Sudan’s designation as a state sponsor of terror – a move AMCD
adamantly opposes. “The intense focus on Iran has left rogue Islamist states
like Sudan free to perpetrate the most egregious human rights violations
imaginable – mass rape and torture, ethnic cleansing on an enormous scale,
efforts to purposely starve the unwanted population, the list goes on and
on,” added AMCD co-chair Tom Harb. “Sudan has perpetrated genocide against
its indigenous African population. There is no other way to put it –
genocide.”
Therefore AMCD calls on the Trump administration to immediately halt the
normalization process and re-impose sanctions against the Bashir regime. In
the words of President Trump today at the United Nations, "We believe that
when nations respect the rights of their neighbors and defend the interests
of their people, they can better work together to secure the blessings of
safety, prosperity, and peace." Apparently, these blessings only apply to
the Arabs of Sudan in the eyes of the Bashir regime. Bashir and his
henchmen's blatant hatred for the indigenous people of Sudan has resulted in
the killing of millions of innocents and must be stopped. General Marouf
should not be welcomed into the USA.
Rebecca Bynum
The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy
6157756801
https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/463114871/amcd-opposes-us-meeting-with-sudan-s-military-chief-of-staff
Egypt’s security
forces kill 15 suspected militants in a Sinai shootout
Reuters, CairoWednesday, 3 October 2018/Egyptian security forces have killed
15 suspected militants in a shootout during a raid on their hideout near
al-Arish, the capital of North Sinai province, state news agency MENA and
security sources said on Wednesday. The men were suspected of planning
attacks on security checkpoints ahead of the 45th anniversary of Egypt’s
October 6 1973 war with Israel, the sources and MENA said, quoting an
interior ministry statement. The news agency did not identify the suspects
nor say whether there had been any casualties or injuries among the security
forces.Police seized a number of automatic weapons in the raid on a farm
West of al-Arish where the suspected militants were hiding, MENA said. The
raid comes as the Egyptian army, backed by police, push ahead with a
military operation to crush Islamist militants behind a wave of attacks on
civilians and military personnel in Sinai. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi
ordered the armed forces last November to defeat Islamist militants within
three months after an attack on a mosque in Sinai killed more than 300
people. Defeating the militants and restoring security after years of unrest
has been a key promise of Sisi, who was re-elected in March.
The Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on
October 04-05/18
Iranian
regime strengthening its ability to control Syria’s destiny
النظام الإيراني يقوي هيمنته على لسوريا ليتمكن من السيطرة على مصيرها
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 04/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/67878/dr-majid-rafizadeh-iranian-regime-strengthening-its-ability-to-control-syrias-destiny-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%83%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%b1-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%b2%d8%a7/
The international community appears to be getting less
concerned about Iran’s continuing presence in Syria from both the military
and political perspectives. Although the Syrian government has recaptured
significant territories, Damascus still seems to be in favor of the Iranian
regime’s ongoing and increasing influence within the country’s borders.
In his speech at the United Nation General Assembly, Syrian Foreign Minister
Walid Muallem reiterated the classic narratives that the Syrian government
has been spreading. Such narratives include the notions that the Syrian
forces are solely fighting terrorism, that the government does not use
chemical weapons, and that Damascus is seeking diplomatic initiatives to
bring about full stability and peace in all Syrian territories.
But there was one critical issue that Muallem failed to mention is his
speech: The current and future role of the Iranian regime in Syria. Without
a doubt, the theocratic establishment of Iran is one of the most significant
state actors in Syria. Tehran has masterfully orchestrated its agenda to
continue increasing its influence there.
From the perspective of the Iranian leaders, chaos and instability in the
region provide geopolitical and geostrategic opportunities. In Syria, Tehran
began by providing advisory assistance and moral support to the regime.
Then, when the Syrian forces showed weakness and lost several major battles
and territories to the opposition and rebel groups, Iran ratcheted up its
involvement and influence. Under the instruction of Iran’s most powerful
man, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran began providing military,
intelligence and economic assistance to Bashar Assad.
It is worth noting that Iranian leaders across the political spectrum —
including the moderates, hard-liners and Principlists — advocated for the
same policies on Syria that were directed by Khamenei, the senior cadre of
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Quds Force, an elite
branch of the IRGC that conducts operations in foreign nations to advance
the regime’s revolutionary and ideological principles.
Has Iran masterfully orchestrated its agenda to continue increasing its
influence in Syria?
In the next phase, the IRGC used political opportunism and dispatched
low-level soldiers as well as senior military generals to Syria. In
addition, Iran used its proxies, including Hezbollah and Shiite militias
from across the region, and recruited fighters from other countries such as
Afghanistan to fight in Syria alongside Assad’s forces.
More importantly, the Iranian regime exploited the conflict financially by
making Damascus more dependent on Tehran economically. It opened a credit
line for the Assad regime and continued to extend it. The credit line has
now reached over $3 billion. Iran also began spending roughly $16 billion a
year supporting Assad. Through these Machiavellian strategies, the ruling
mullahs deeply infiltrated Syria’s political, military and security
structures.
It is important to point out that, from the prism of the Iranian leaders,
Tehran has finally emerged triumphant in the seven-year-old civil war — a
war that has included the employment of violence and brute force, which has
caused the deaths of nearly half a million people, including thousands of
children.
Iran’s media outlets, as well as several of the regime’s apparatuses, began
celebrating their success in accomplishing their mission in Syria after many
territories were recaptured. Iranian leaders labeled Syria as “the 35th
province (of the Islamic Republic of Iran) and a strategic province for us.”
To improve the situation in Syria, it is in the interests of not only
Syrians, but also Russia, to free Damascus from Iran’s forces. But Iranian
Defense Minister Amir Hatami recently traveled to Syria and sealed an
agreement with Damascus for intensified military cooperation, which will
likely strengthen Iran’s military role. Hatami pointed out: “With this
accord, we have paved the way for a reconstruction of the Syrian military
industries.” Iran will be also building a large power plant in the western
coastal province of Latakia.
The latest developments are pointing toward the next crucial phase that the
Iranian regime is plotting. Tehran is beginning to solidify its presence and
influence in Syria in order to continue directing the nation’s social,
political and economic affairs for many years or even decades to come.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political
scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a
businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
The Iran Action Group Puts Muscle Behind Trump’s Iran
Bluster
Nick Wadhams & Javier Blas/Bloomberg/October 04/18
During a press conference at the United Nations General Assembly on Sept.
26, President Trump made clear how he feels about the criticism he’s gotten
from other countries over his decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear
agreement and resurrect stifling sanctions in November. “It doesn’t matter
what world leaders think,” he said. “Iran’s going to come back to me and
make a deal.”
One reason he’s so sure? An obscure but highly effective group with a name
that sounds like it was pulled from the title of a 1980s action flick: the
Iran Action Group.
As Trump, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, and national security adviser
John Bolton have lashed out against Iran’s leaders and the European Union
for trying to preserve the nuclear deal Trump quit in May, a handful of
employees from the U.S. State and Treasury departments has quietly toured
the globe, visiting world capitals and corporate headquarters to persuade
foreign governments and companies to shun the Iranian market. The choice
they present has been simple: Do business with America, the biggest economy
in the world, or do business with Iran and face sanctions and banishment
from the U.S. financial system.“What we have now is a big game of chicken,”
says Anthony Rapa, a lawyer at Kirkland & Ellis who focuses on sanctions
compliance. Rapa is impressed thus far with how effective Pompeo’s team has
been in isolating Iran. “Whatever you might say about the president and his
rhetoric, the people running this file know what they’re doing.”
Members of the Iran Action Group have visited more than 30 countries so far,
meeting with senior officials and company representatives. They lay out the
U.S. view of Tehran’s “malign behavior” in the Middle East and around the
globe. But their real goal is to convey in detail just how far the U.S. is
prepared to go to inflict economic pain—chiefly through secondary
sanctions—on companies that expect to get a reprieve if they keep up
business ties with Iran.
So far they’ve been persuasive. A so-called Divestment Tracker kept by the
group lists 80 or so companies, ranging from Total and Munich Re Group to
KLM Royal Dutch Airlines and Mazda Motor, that have backed out of the
Iranian market over the past several months. More important for Iran, which
derives 80 percent of its tax revenue from oil sales, exports of its oil
products have fallen 40 percent from a high point of 2.8 million barrels a
day in April, the month before Trump backed out of the nuclear accord.
That decline surpassed even the most bearish forecasts. “Iran exports are
going to drop more than what the market expected only a couple of months
ago,” says Ben Luckock, co-head of oil trading at Trafigura Group, one of
the world’s largest commodities merchants. “When we add every country that
we think will continue buying, we struggle to see exports much more above 1
million barrels a day.”
The Iran Action Group’s cast of characters includes a former explosives
ordinance expert, Jason Shell; David Tessler, a mild-mannered sanctions
expert with two tweets to his name; Michelle Giuda, who was once Newt
Gingrich’s spokeswoman and was also a national gymnastics champion at the
University of California at Los Angeles; and a former New York ad man, Len
Khodorkovsky, whose family fled the Soviet Union when he was a child and who
now coordinates Pompeo’s anti-Iran messaging campaign.
Their leader is Brian Hook, a foreign policy wonk who worked for the George
W. Bush adminstration and advised Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign.
Hook wielded vast power under Pompeo’s predecessor, Rex Tillerson, serving
as his policy brain. While his current mandate isn’t as expansive, he’s been
given valuable real estate, moving into an office along the State Department
corridor known as Mahogany Row. Working a few doors down from Pompeo, he’s
essentially taken control of the department’s policy toward Iran.
The group’s effort is putting to the test the proposition that the U.S.
economy and dollar are so central to the global economic system that
American sanctions alone will isolate Iran’s economy. That runs counter to
the conventional wisdom that Obama-era sanctions against Iran were effective
only because other nations participated, particularly U.S. allies in Europe.
“I’ve felt for a long time that we’ve underestimated our ability to use U.S.
tools when they’re viewed as a leg to isolate financial and economic rogue
behavior,” says Juan Zarate, chairman of the Financial Integrity Network and
a former deputy national security adviser to Bush. “The argument that our
power was slipping away, our ability to maintain sanctions was fading, was a
really inaccurate portrayal of where we were.”
Trump is going further than any previous president in using American
financial power as a weapon—in direct confrontation with his allies, daring
them to keep doing business with Iran, even if that brings the threat of
U.S. economic punishment and denial to the American market, which is 60
times the size of the Iranian economy. As far as Hook is concerned, the
question is settled. “Very few companies are going to choose Iran over the
United States,” he said at a briefing in late September. “That’s just the
economic reality.”
Hook and his crew have vowed to cut Iranian oil exports to zero, betting
that other producers, such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, can make up for lost
supplies and keep oil prices steady. But markets are already spooked. The
price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, hit a four-year high of $85
a barrel in early October, up from $55 a year ago.
Rising oil prices could expose the Iran Action Group to what many regard as
its biggest threat: Trump himself. With the midterm elections only a month
away, the president may be concerned that higher oil prices will hurt
Republicans at the polls. He inveighed against rising prices during his
speech before the UN General Assembly on Sept. 25, saying, “We are not going
to put up with it—these horrible prices—much longer.” The risk is that the
president will reverse course on Iran, as he did with North Korea, pivoting
from belligerence to dealmaking. “Trump appears at first as though he’ll
never capitulate, but it’s a negotiating tactic, and he ultimately wants to
do a deal with Iran,” says Scott Modell, a former CIA officer and managing
director at Rapidan Energy Group. “He would be just fine freezing some
aspects of Iran’s bad behavior for now and entering into prolonged talks in
search of a broader deal, particularly because it’s his best chance of
keeping U.S. gasoline prices under $3 per gallon.”
What are the other threats to the strong-arm approach? Countries such as
India and China pose the biggest challenge. Both are major importers of
Iranian oil. While China may be willing to spurn the U.S., India is more
inclined to cooperate. “The fallout from going alone is serious,” says Wendy
Sherman, the Obama administration’s undersecretary of state who led the
negotiating team for the Iran deal. “You take a country like India, which
has an election coming up. They want good relations with the United States,
no question. But they also don’t need an energy crisis.”
And no matter how successful the Iran Action Group’s campaign is, there’s no
guarantee Iran will concede. The goal, the State Department says, is to
inflict so much economic pain that Iran is compelled to come back to the
negotiating table and agree to a deal that not only limits its nuclear
program, but also curbs what the U.S. says is Iran’s sponsorship of
terrorism, its ballistic missile ambitions, and its overall power in the
region.
The 12 demands Pompeo has laid out would amount to a wholesale reshaping of
Iran and reorientation of its priorities. That’s probably asking too much.
Iranian leaders are “very astute and very savvy, and they are very tough
negotiators,” Sherman says. “It’s a resistance culture.”
**BOTTOM LINE - The Iran Action Group has exceeded expectations in its
efforts to win global support for U.S. economic sanctions on Iran.
U.S. Withdraws From 1955 Treaty Normalizing Relations With Iran
Edward Wong and David E. Sanger/The New York Times/October 04/18
WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Wednesday that the
United States was pulling out of a six-decade-old treaty with Iran that had
provided a basis for normalizing relations between the two countries,
including diplomatic and economic exchanges.
The largely symbolic move came hours after the International Court of
Justice ordered the United States to ensure that a new round of American
sanctions imposed against Tehran this year did not prevent food, medicine
and aircraft parts from reaching Iran.
The treaty bears little relevance to the current relationship between
Washington and Tehran. The move is the latest in a broad effort by the Trump
administration to isolate Iran, reversing a diplomatic drive embraced by
former President Barack Obama.
The ruling by the international court in The Hague was related to a
complaint that Iran filed in July, arguing that the new sanctions violated
the Treaty of Amity, Economic Relations and Consular Rights, which was
signed in 1955. In essence, the ruling sought to protect Iran’s public and
economy from what the court described as irreparable damage while justices
continue to consider the case against the sanctions.
But in his announcement, Mr. Pompeo made clear that the United States would
ignore the ruling — simply by scrapping the bilateral treaty with Iran.
“The Iranians have been ignoring it for an awfully long time,” Mr. Pompeo
told reporters at the State Department.
He said the legal complaint amounted to an attempt by Iran to interfere with
the sovereign rights of the United States. He also said that the court’s
decision was outside its jurisdiction and that Iran’s appeals “lacked
merit.”
Still, he said, the United States would continue to try to deliver
humanitarian aid to the Iranian people, and existing exceptions to the
economic sanctions would remain in effect.
President Trump imposed the sanctions after withdrawing in May from a 2015
agreement between Iran and world powers that sought to keep Tehran from
restarting its nuclear program. All the other parties to the accord —
Britain, France, Germany, China, Russia and the European Union — say Iran is
complying with its terms.
After Mr. Pompeo’s announcement, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif of
Iran said on Twitter that the United States was an “outlaw regime.” He
praised the court’s ruling earlier, saying it marked “another failure” for
the “sanctions-addicted” United States and “victory for rule of law.”
In legal terms, the United States withdrawal from the 1955 treaty with Iran
does not take effect immediately. The treaty remains in place for one year
from any announcement of withdrawal, meaning Iran’s lawsuit will proceed.
It was negotiated after the C.I.A. helped stage a coup in Iran that Iranians
still cite as a gross violation of the country’s sovereignty. The 1953 coup,
code-named Operation Ajax, was engineered by Kermit Roosevelt Jr., a
grandson of President Theodore Roosevelt, and installed a government that
two years later cemented the treaty with President Dwight D. Eisenhower.
The treaty sets up commercial relationships, tax structures and access to
each nation’s courts. None of that has applied since the 1979 Islamic
revolution.
“The treaty with Iran is a weird treaty,” said Julian Ku, a professor of
constitutional and international law at Hofstra University Law School. “We
haven’t been friends with Iran in a long time.”Mr. Ku said there have been
two other instances since the 1980s in which the United States withdrew from
a treaty after an unfavorable ruling by the International Court of Justice.
One was during the Reagan administration, in a case brought in 1984 by
Nicaragua; the second was in 2005, when the George W. Bush administration
lost a case brought by Mexico.
Lawyers for the United States had argued that the sanctions dispute with
Iran was a matter of American national security, and therefore the court had
no jurisdiction to intervene. Rulings by the International Court of Justice
are legally binding but difficult to enforce; in the past, both the United
States and Iran have ignored its orders.
Wednesday’s unanimous order by the court’s 15 judges — including one
American — stopped far short of outright siding with Iran, which had asked
for an immediate halt to all sanctions.
At the White House, John R. Bolton, the national security adviser,
separately announced that the United States would review all treaties that
require it to participate in cases before the international court.
Additionally, he said the Trump administration would no longer abide by an
optional provision to the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations that
requires certain disputes to be settled by the court.
The United States remains in the Vienna Convention itself, but Mr. Bolton
was aiming to undermine a lawsuit filed last week by Palestinian officials
over the move of the American Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
“The United States will not sit idly by as baseless, politicized claims are
brought against us,” Mr. Bolton said.
Robert Malley, the president of the International Crisis Group and a former
White House coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf
during the Obama administration, said Mr. Bolton’s statement underscored
“why the Trump administration is increasingly isolated on the world stage.”
“This bellicosity undermines U.S. interests and, by escalating tensions and
forfeiting diplomacy, risks putting us on a path toward conflict in the
Middle East,” Mr. Malley said.
Last week, President Hassan Rouhani of Iran said he would consider
re-entering negotiations with the United States — if Mr. Trump first
recommitted to the nuclear deal that was struck in 2015.
But in withdrawing from the 1955 treaty on Wednesday, Mr. Pompeo also
appeared to reject the idea of returning to normalized relations with Iran.
That was the overall, long-term objective of the 2015 nuclear accord, in
addition to having Iran agree to moving 97 percent of its nuclear material
outside its borders.
Mr. Pompeo underscored a larger strategy by the United States to confront
Iran across the Middle East, emphasizing what he said were hostile Iranian
actions.
In early November, the United States is expected to impose a broad series of
additional sanctions against Tehran that will threaten to cut off companies
around the world that also do business with Iran. Administration officials
are looking to force Iran to withdraw its troops and militias it supports in
Syria. In Yemen, despite large numbers of civilian casualties and growing
outrage among American legislators, the United States has continued to
support a war being waged by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
against the Iranian-backed Houthis.
And in Iraq, the United States is evacuating all diplomats, security guards
and other employees from its consulate in the southern city of Basra after
several recent rocket attacks by what Mr. Pompeo said were Iranian-backed
militias.
No one was injured in the strikes, which landed on the perimeter of the
airfield near the consulate building. Senior State Department officials had
debated for more than a year whether to shut down the consulate to save
money.
Mr. Pompeo cited “solid” intelligence indicating that Iran was behind the
attacks.
“We can see the hand of the ayatollah and his henchmen,” Mr. Pompeo said on
Wednesday, referring to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Marlise Simons contributed reporting from Paris, Alan Cowell from London and
David M. Halbfinger from Jerusalem.
A version of this article appears in print on Oct. 4, 2018, on Page A8 of
the New York edition with the headline: Asked to Respect Treaty With Iran,
U.S. Scraps It Instead. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe
Analysis/With S-300 Now in Syria, Putin Signals a New Long-term Strategy for
Russia
أنشل بفافر من الهآررتس: مع وجود ال اس 300 في سوريا نيتانياهو يعطي اشارات
لإستراتجية طويلة المدى مع روسيا
Anshel Pfeffer/Haaretz/October 04/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/67875/anshel-pfeffer-haaretz-analysis-with-s-300-now-in-syria-putin-signals-a-new-long-term-strategy-for-russia-%d8%a3%d9%86%d8%b4%d9%84-%d8%a8%d9%81%d8%a7%d9%81%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87/
From the Iranian attack on Syria to the U.S. claiming it may
take action against new Russian missiles, Putin is flexing his muscles and
shows he's not afraid to challenge any other country.
In an impressive feat of logistics, within two weeks of the incident in
which Syria inadvertently shot down a Russian spy-plane, killing all 15 crew
members, Russia has now airlifted an entire S-300 air-defense system to its
Khmeimim air base in Syria.
It took at least seven flights of the massive Antonov An-124 to airlift the
system, taking off from Murmansk, and flying a roundabout route over Iran
and Iraq. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the S-300’s
arrival on Tuesday, saying it would be integrated into Russia’s existing
air-defense system by October 20 and that Syrian personnel would be trained
on its use within three months.
There is a long list of questions for analysts of Russian military affairs
that are not fully answered. Are the S-300 batteries that were delivered the
most advanced in that series? The differences between versions of radar and
missiles could have implications for other air forces flying in the region.
How many actual launchers were transported to Syria? Since Russia already
operates its own, more advanced S-400 system from Khmeimim, will the new
system simply slot into an integrated air-defense network, improving radar
coverage and giving more options to track and intercept incoming targets? Or
is the ultimate aim to equip the Assad regime with an improved and
independent system?
The surprisingly short delivery process raises questions as well. Even large
military powers like Russia don’t have these systems just lying around. It’s
unthinkable they pulled them out of a frontline operational air-defense
battalion, so these batteries either arrived from storage, or they were
recently operational and were anyway in the process of being replaced with
newer systems. Which leads to the timing.
Russia has spoken in the past of possibly equipping its Syrian allies with
S-300s, but this move was announced in the wake of the downing of the
Ilyushin Il-20, and interpreted as a move that would make it harder for
Israel’s air force to operate over Syria.
Russia blamed Israel for having “provoked” the shooting-down by attacking a
joint Iranian-Syrian missile production facility near Latakia. But in recent
days, the Russian rhetoric against Israel has died down and Shoigu,
announcing the S-300’s arrival, did not mention Israel.
So is this just a response to the Ilyushin incident? Or was that merely a
pretext for a wider change in Russian strategy in Syria?
Taken at face value, it is indeed merely a pretext. The S-300 won’t stop
Israel from striking Iranian targets in Syria. But it will change the
operational parameters and mean Israel will have to return to a lower
operational profile, which characterized its strikes in Syria before
politicians and senior generals began boasting of carrying out hundreds of
attacks.
Israel has the knowledge, experience and equipment to evade the S-300. But
the fact that additional batteries, manned by Russian personnel, are on the
ground will necessitate greater care. More advanced equipment should also
help the Russian and Syrian allies avoid another mishap, preventing another
incident in which Syrians will fire Russian-made missiles at a Russian
aircraft.
However, there are other options now available to Russian President Vladimir
Putin. On Wednesday, he said that he wants all foreign forces to
“eventually” leave Syria. He could be coming close to a “mission
accomplished” moment, with Assad back in control of most of Syria. Why risk
more Russian soldiers?
He has said similar things in the past and Russia remained, but if a gradual
drawing down of Russian forces in Syria is in the offing, upgrading the
Assad regime’s air defense from the current Soviet-era equipment it uses
makes sense. But this is Putin, and he likes to have as many alternatives
available as possible. He is unlikely to be leaving soon.
Assad may be relatively secure in Damascus and regained control of all of
Syria’s main cities, but the parallel wars in Syria are far from over. It’s
not just the shadow war between Israel and Iran. Turkey has forced Russia
and the regime to abandon for now their plans to advance on the rebel
enclave around Idlib - but that battle won’t go away.
In eastern Syria, on the border with Iraq, Islamic State is regrouping. It
may have lost its strongholds in Mosul and Raqqa, but it still has an
estimated 30,000 fighters who are operating in both countries. And the
United States in August reversed its decision to withdraw its Special
Forces, which are working with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces on
the Euphrates.
Putin, who masterfully used the vacuum left by President Barack Obama in
Syria to ensure his client regime’s survival, is unlikely to make the same
mistake now and leave a vacuum of his own.
The implications of such a vacuum were on display Monday night when Iran
launched its own missiles at targets in eastern Syria, claiming it was
striking back at the planners of the attack on the military parade in Ahvaz
last week.
Iran may currently be Russia’s ally, but it is also a potential rival for
control of Syria. As is the United States, which in the last two days became
embroiled in another missile crisis with Russia, after the U.S. ambassador
to NATO seemed to be threatening military action against new Russian
missiles that NATO claims contravene the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces
Treaty.
Two NATO members, the United States and Turkey, have forces on the ground in
Syria, while France and Britain continue to carry out airstrikes against
ISIS forces there.
The delivery of the S-300 is, more than anything, a signal that Putin is
building a long-term strategy for Russia and intends to challenge any other
country intruding on what he now regards as his fiefdom.
Is Criticizing Terrorism "Mental Illness"?
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/October 04/18
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13072/le-pen-dissent-mental-illness
A 615-page report was recently released, written by an adviser to President
Emmanuel Macron, Hakim El Karoui, who is in charge of designing the new
institutions of an "Islam of France." The report defines Islamism as an
"ideology totally distinct from Islam" and also never addresses the links
between Islamism and terrorism. The report also insists on the urgent need
to spread "true Islam" in France and adopt the teaching of Arabic in public
high schools.
The court's request, for Marine Le Pen to undergo a psychiatric evaluation
to determine if she is sane, indicates that French authorities might be
reviving the old Soviet use of "psychiatry" to silence dissidents or
political opponents.
The legal offensive against Marine Le Pen was actually added to the
financial offensive. Even if Le Pen is not sent to prison, the law seems to
have been used to open the possibility of declaring her ineligible for the
European Parliament elections scheduled for May 2019.
Marine Le Pen (pictured at podium), the leader of France's right-wing
National Front Party, posted tweets critical of the Islamic State terrorist
group, including photos of their murdered victims. For this, she was charged
with the crime of "disseminating violent images," and ordered by a court to
undergo a psychiatric evaluation to determine if she is sane.
On December 16, 2015, a French journalist on a mainstream radio station
compared France's right-wing National Front Party to the Islamic State
(ISIS) by saying that there is a "community of spirit" between them and that
both push those who support them to "withdraw into their own identity".
Marine Le Pen, the president of the National Front party, speaking of a
"unacceptable verbal slippage," asked the radio station for the right to
answer. She then published on Twitter images showing the bodies of victims
of the Islamic State and adding: "ISIS is this!"
The French media immediately accused her of broadcasting "indecent" and
"obscene" images, and shortly after that, the French government ordered the
Department of Justice to indict her. On November 8, 2017 the French national
assembly also lifted her parliamentary immunity.
A few months later, a judge mandated by the French government, charged
Marine Le Pen with "disseminating violent images," citing article 227-24 of
the French Penal Code, which defines the crime of:
"... disseminating... a message of a violent nature, inciting terrorism,
pornographic or likely to seriously violate human dignity or to incite
minors to engage in games that physically endanger them, or to commercialize
such a message."
As part of the proceedings, Marine Le Pen received a letter from the court
ordering her to undergo a psychiatric evaluation to determine if she is
sane. She refused, saying that showing horrors committed by the Islamic
State is not incitement to murder, and that pictures of victims of terrorism
cannot be equated with pornography.
The court's request indicates that the French authorities might be reviving
the old Soviet use of "psychiatry" to silence dissidents or political
opponents.
At the moment, Le Pen can be arrested anywhere, at any time and could face
up to five years in prison.
As a presidential candidate in May 2017, she received 34% of the vote in the
second round of voting. Sending her to jail could provoke anger among her
supporters, so her arrest is not expected.
What seems more probable is an effort to intimidate her, and if possible, to
destroy her politically. A few weeks ago, the French government asked
magistrates responsible for investigating "financial crimes" to seize two
million euros ($2.3 million) of public funds granted to Marine Le Pen's
party, which has since ceased almost all public activities. The legal
offensive against Marine Le Pen was actually added to the financial
offensive. Even if Le Pen is not sent to prison, the law seems to have been
used to open the possibility of declaring her ineligible for the European
Parliament elections scheduled for May 2019.
French President Emmanuel Macron knows that today, Le Pen's party is his
main opposition in France and that Le Pen is his main political opponent. He
describes himself as the champion of the "progressive" vision of Europe and
the main enemy of those who want to resist Islamization, uncontrolled
immigration, and who wish to defend national sovereignty -- views he has
described as "leprosy" and "evil winds". He has verbally blasted Italian
Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, as well as
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who are creating a European alliance
of nationalist movements that include Le Pen's party. On the contrary,
Macron supports European sanctions against Hungary and Poland if they refuse
to accept more migrants.
Macron sees that a victory of the Salvini-Orban alliance would not only be a
humiliation for him, but that a victory of Le Pen's party in France could
mean the final collapse of his crumbling presidency (his approval rating,
which has fallen 6 points in the last month, now stands at 23%). He cannot
crush the Salvini-Orban alliance, but he can affect the political process in
France.
Macron's stance against Le Pen might also be an attempt by his government to
ward off more Islamic violence in France. Presently, books and publications
that reference the violent dimension inherent in Islam are boycotted and
absent from bookstores (the Quran, however, is still widely available).
Organizations that fight the Islamization of France and Europe are
judicially harassed. Pierre Cassen and Christine Tasin, the leaders of the
main French anti-Islamization website, Riposte Laïque ("Secular Response"),
must spend a disproportionate amount of time in court and are heavily fined
on a regular basis. To avoid having their website closed down, they have had
to relocate their website outside both France and the European Union.
A 615-page report was recently released, written by an adviser to Macron,
Hakim El Karoui, who is in charge of designing the new institutions of an
"Islam of France." The report defines Islamism as an "ideology totally
distinct from Islam" and also never addresses the links between Islamism and
terrorism. The report also insists on the urgent need to spread "true Islam"
in France and adopt the teaching of Arabic in public high schools.
In the French media, any mention of the links between Islam and violence has
now been almost completely eliminated. When a Muslim commits a knife attack
and shouts "Allahu Akbar" ("Allah is the greatest"), the official message
published even before any investigation invariably declares that what
happened had "nothing to do with Islam" and "no terrorist character". All
the media then blindly quote the message. In the most recent attack of this
kind, on September 9 in Paris, seven people were wounded, four seriously.
Recently, the author Éric Zemmour spoke on television of the high proportion
of young Muslims among France's prison inmates, and of the rise of Muslim
anti-Semitism in France's suburbs. The Conseil supérieur de l'audiovisuel
(CSA), France's TV and radio regulator, told the station that Zemmour had
uttered "stigmatizing remarks about Muslims" and that the station would
suffer huge consequences if he ever repeated them. A French talk show host
began circulating a petition demanding that Zemmour be totally excluded from
the French media. The petition drew more than 300,000 signatures in one
week.
Zemmour wondered if the Soviet gulag would have to be reopened especially
for him or if he would have to choose self-exile. He received so many
credible death threats that he is now under round-the-clock police
protection.
The political scientist Jean-Yves Camus said that although he does not agree
with Marine Le Pen's views, "Everywhere and always, saying of a political
opponent that he is 'crazy' opens the doors of totalitarianism".
A lawyer, Regis de Castelnau, wrote in the monthly Causeur:
"There is a country in Europe where the main opposition party, after the
seizure of its financial resources, sees its president asked to undergo a
judicial psychiatric assessment. Is it Putin's Russia or Orban's Hungary?
No. It is France".
Castelnau added that the law used to charge Marine Le Pen is usually used to
indict "perverts" and "psychopaths," and that "psychiatric expertise" was
only asked for because their criminal sentences were often accompanied by an
obligation to receive psychiatric treatment.
"All those who laugh at the troubles of their political opponents," he said,
"would be wise to remember that if they accept attacks on political
liberties, it could soon be their turn."
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of
27 books on France and Europe.
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here
do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone
Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be
reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of
Gatestone Institute.
Saudi Arabia and Arab stability
Radwan al-Sayed/Al Arabiya/October 04/18
Saudi Arabia recently celebrated its national day. States choose their
national day based on their history and the awareness of its importance in
the establishment of its political entity and national state. The Saudi
National Day is not just like any other national day for us Arabs, but is a
day of unity and power, as it symbolizes Arab stability and coherence, as
well as Arab hope in the present and the future. Why would the Saudi
National Day symbolize all these things? Firstly, it is because it is not a
declaration of liberation from occupation, like the case is with all Arab
and Islamic countries’ national days. It’s an aware act that was launched
from within the heart of the Arabian Peninsula in the 18th century to end
the disunity spread out across vast regions. This unification then reached
the two Holy Mosques to restore Arab leadership for Arabs and for Islam.
In celebrating their National Day, the Saudis celebrate the first successful
experiment of Arab unity in the modern age. There have been no other
successful experiments like these, except for the UAE
For this, Saudis did not only fight against the indigenous forces and the
Ottomans but also against other states that had sent their armies to the
Arabian Peninsula for several centuries on various pretexts. Saudis
protected the two Holy Mosques and the trading routes and confronted the
Western naval invasion of the Red Sea and the Gulf coasts. The Saudi vision
has been and it still is that the Arabian Peninsula is the cradle of Arabs
and Islam. Only pure Arabs can protect it and bear its message. “And indeed,
it is a remembrance for you and your people, and you [all] are going to be
questioned.”Thus, when late King Abdulaziz Al Saud announced the
establishment of the Kingdom in the early 1930s, it was the result of almost
a century-long endeavor that culminated in the declaration of the state of
Arabs and the state of security, safety and protection.
Arab League and OIC
The most obvious evidence to understand this fact is that Saudi Arabia along
with Egypt established the League of Arab States in the 1940s in order to
support the independence of Arab regions in the East and West from
colonialism and help them to develop. The Organization of Islamic
Cooperation (OIC) was established in the 1960s thus completing the
solidarity contract towards establishing the largest human group within the
UN.
The other clear evidence comes from the present as Saudi Arabia remains the
pillar of the Arab might and stability; no matter how much Iranians may be
annoyed of Saudi Arabia. At the Sirte summit in Libya in 2010, late Saudi
Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal warned of ‘the Arab void’ and the dangers of
regional and international interferences in Arab internal affairs.
After the Iranians shared power in Iraq with the US following the invasion
in 2003, the Iranians started to consecrate their authority on Lebanon,
Syria and Yemen in addition to threatening Jordan’s security. They also
started causing tensions with Egypt. In the Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia
and the UAE rushed to protect Bahrain and tried to protect Lebanon from
itself and its small politicians. They stood with Egypt until the unease
ended.
An example to emulate
Saudi Arabia’s location and its effective and unifying role made it face the
fiercest attacks, such as after the September 11, 2001 attacks. Then there
were Iran’s activities through its sectarian militias in Iraq, Syria,
Lebanon and Yemen. Saudi Arabia proved to be the most powerful fronts in
confronting terrorism which attacked it first and which Iran has become its
haven. Saudi Arabia now stands at the forefront of fighters against Iran’s
destruction of states and societies from Iraq and Syria and to Lebanon and
Yemen.
In celebrating their National Day, the Saudis celebrate the first successful
experiment of Arab unity in the modern age. There have been no other
successful experiments like these, except for the UAE. They also celebrate
prosperity, stability and development. As for Arabs everywhere, we see in
Saudi success and Saudi and Emirati power hope and work to regain peace in
religion, save the experience of the national state in the Arab Levant and
correct the relation with the world.
When we, Arabs, look around us amid the difficult circumstances due to the
destruction caused by the Iranians, the terrorists and other international
forces, the only model we find for the possibility of Arab development and
for regaining Arab stability is the Saudi leadership that works with Egypt
and the UAE to achieve a better life for us.
Congratulations to the Saudis on their National Day. Congratulations to us,
Arabs and Muslims, for the Saudi role and model in leadership, development
and the creation of stability at present and in the future.
Syria and the myth of the regime’s recovery
Hazem al-Amin/Al Arabiya/October 04/18
What is happening in Syria does not indicate that the regime will recover
and emerge victorious from the ordeal which has struck the Syrian people and
affected all the conflicting parties in the country. There also seems to be
no scenario offering an alternative to the present situation.
The regime has not won and is struggling by the day. The Russian-Turkish
agreement on Idlib is a sign of this weakness. Its inability to react to the
daily Israeli raids is another sign of its vulnerability. Its exclusion from
running the affairs in Daraa and its provinces and dependence on Russian
police in managing the situation there is also an indicator that makes the
allies of the Syrian regime realize that the latter is unfit to govern. The
division of the tasks of governance between the Iranians and Russians has
become a part of an ordinary scene in Syria.
“The regime is about to recover!” This is the favored statement that we have
been hearing for the last two years. However, the regime is further
weakening every day
Allies overpower the regime
So this regime whose situation is as such, is expected to govern, actually
govern those whom have rivers of blood between them and the regime? The
Syrian regime does not have the prerequisites for governance, with the
exception of the whip, and perhaps it also has the desperation of the social
category which revolted against it. In exchange for this power apparatus,
the regime is facing a strange situation. The daily Israeli raids have made
the Baath regime lose the substantial discourse of its governance. Russia’s
daily insults on the sovereign level against the regime are obvious to its
closest supporters. It seems the regime does not even have a place in all
the meetings concerning the future of Syria. The Russians and Turks say the
timing of the campaign against Idlib is no longer imminent. The Syrian Army
commits itself to this statement, and to the 20 km limit as described in the
agreement between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “The regime is
about to recover!” This is the favored statement that we have been hearing
for the last two years. However, the regime is further weakening every day.
Aircrafts bomb Syria from all sides. When the regime has lost the ability to
control the scene, it started confronting aircrafts of “allies”, one of
which was recently struck down in Latakia. However it was unable to destroy
any Israeli aircraft. This is not a cynical situation. Cynicism is not a
suitable term to describe a regime that is this brutal and violent.
It’s a realistic paradox. Multinational aircrafts in Syria no longer violate
sovereignty and international law. The Americans are present in the north
and east of the country; the Turks are in Idlib, the Russians and the
Iranians are present in the center and south of the country, while the
Syrian skies are open to Israeli planes. Despite all this, there are those
who say that the regime in Syria is about to recover, and that the Syrian
Arab Army will soon extend its sovereignty over the entire Syrian territory.
Dismal future
Amid this complicated scene, it is not possible to expect there will be a
deal that solidifies an authority in which these countries share influence
in Syria. How will the share of Iran be determined, for example, in the
light of this overlapping between its interests and those of Russia? Will
Israel accept that Iran becomes a partner in power in Syria? The same
question applies to Turkey's share and the Kurds in the north. The present
scene points to more wars until it clarifies. The “recovering” regime will
grow weaker, especially once the opposition is finished, as its killing
machine has no function other than killing and if it stops operating this
machine after its “rivals” are eliminated, it will lose the only tool of
authority it has and the Syrians will once again pounce on it. The regime
will thus continue to kill given it’s the only language it masters. The most
striking thing to me when seeing pictures of demonstrations in Idlib is that
the protestors are demanding the overthrow of the regime as the latter is
the weakest link in the cycle of Syrian violence today. It is true that it
has not lost its ability to kill, but what remains of this capability is the
non-functional murder. It is murder as an extension of an old practice and a
culture which is the only thing they know how to do. As for the real story
in Syria, it is in a very different place.
USA Treasury Continues
to Expose and Disrupt Hizballah’s Financial Support Networks
بالاسماء: الشركات
اللبنانية التي فرضت عليها الخزانة الاميركية العقوبات
Press Release/October
4, 2018
U.S. Department of the Treasury
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/67880/usa-treasury-continues-to-expose-and-disrupt-hizballahs-financial-support-networks-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%b3%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84/
Analysis/With S-300
Now in Syria, Putin Signals a New Long-term Strategy for Russia
أنشل بفافر من الهآررتس: مع وجود ال اس 300 في سوريا نيتانياهو يعطي اشارات
لإستراتجية طويلة المدى مع روسيا
Anshel Pfeffer/Haaretz/October 04/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/67875/anshel-pfeffer-haaretz-analysis-with-s-300-now-in-syria-putin-signals-a-new-long-term-strategy-for-russia-%d8%a3%d9%86%d8%b4%d9%84-%d8%a8%d9%81%d8%a7%d9%81%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87/
Iranian regime
strengthening its ability to control Syria’s destiny
النظام الإيراني يقوي هيمنته على لسوريا ليتمكن من السيطرة على مصيرها
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 04/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/67878/dr-majid-rafizadeh-iranian-regime-strengthening-its-ability-to-control-syrias-destiny-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%83%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%b1-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%b2%d8%a7/