Detailed
Lebanese & Lebanese Related LCCC English New Bulletin For November 06/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias
Bejjani
To Read The Detailed English
News Bulletin For November 06/2018 Click on the Link below
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News Bulletin Achieves Since
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Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Bible
Quotations
So
speak and so act as those who are to be judged by the law of liberty
Letter of James 02/01-13:"My brothers and sisters, do you with your acts of
favouritism really believe in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ? For if a
person with gold rings and in fine clothes comes into your assembly, and if
a poor person in dirty clothes also comes in, and if you take notice of the
one wearing the fine clothes and say, ‘Have a seat here, please’, while to
the one who is poor you say, ‘Stand there’, or, ‘Sit at my feet’, have you
not made distinctions among yourselves, and become judges with evil
thoughts? Listen, my beloved brothers and sisters. Has not God chosen the
poor in the world to be rich in faith and to be heirs of the kingdom that he
has promised to those who love him? But you have dishonoured the poor. Is it
not the rich who oppress you? Is it not they who drag you into court? Is it
not they who blaspheme the excellent name that was invoked over you? You do
well if you really fulfil the royal law according to the scripture, ‘You
shall love your neighbour as yourself.’ But if you show partiality, you
commit sin and are convicted by the law as transgressors. For whoever keeps
the whole law but fails in one point has become accountable for all of it.
For the one who said, ‘You shall not commit adultery’, also said, ‘You shall
not murder.’ Now if you do not commit adultery but if you murder, you have
become a transgressor of the law. So speak and so act as those who are to be
judged by the law of liberty. For judgement will be without mercy to anyone
who has shown no mercy; mercy triumphs over judgement."
نشرات اخبار عربية وانكليزية مطولة ومفصلة يومية على موقعنا الألكتروني على
الرابط التالي
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/
Daily Lebanese/Arabic - English news bulletins on our LCCC web site.Click on
the link below
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Titles For The Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials
from miscellaneous sources published on November 05-06/18
Zakka Says Lebanese State in 'Coma' over His Detention/Associated Press/Naharnet/November
05/18
Customs Duties, Competition Hit Lebanese Hopes for Quick Boost from Open
Syria Border/Reuters/Monday 05th November 2018
The Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah: Military Dualism in Post-War
Lebanon/Aram Nerguizian/Italian Institute for International Political
Studies/November 05/18
Hezbollah's Role in a New Lebanese Government Causes a Headache for
Hariri/Michael Young/The National/November 05/18
Asia Bibi: Pakistan's Judicial Betrayal/Giulio Meotti//Gatestone
Institute/November 05/18
Trump’s Iran Oil Sanctions Aren’t Living Up to the Hype/Julian
Lee/Bloomberg/November 05/18
Trump Bank Sanctions Will Hit Iran Where it Hurts/Eli Lake/Bloomberg
View/November 05/18
Iran and The Winds of Trump/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/November 05/18
The Middle East "Truce": Why Hamas Cannot Be Trusted/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone
Institute/November 05/18
Iranian regime running out of options as sanctions hit/Dr. Mohammed Alsulami/Arab
News/November 05/18
Progress Without Peace in the Middle East/Aaron David Miller and Hillel Zand/The
Atlantic/November 05/18/
Implications of US interest rate rise on the Gulf region/Dr. Mohamed A.
Ramady/Al Arabiya/November 05/18
Titles For The
Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
November 05-06/18
Hezbollah Attached to Sunni March 8 Representation amid Islamic
Criticism
Zakka Says Lebanese State in 'Coma' over His Detention
Rahi from Baabda: Aoun will not accept government formation be hindered
Al-Rahi Visits Aoun, Confirms Geagea to Meet Franjieh Soon
Aoun: Israeli claims about missile sites bogus
Hariri Informs Aoun of Contacts to Solve EDL Fuel Problem
Abi Khalil Says Funds Provided for Fuel Barges, ‘No Extra Power Cuts’
Berri meets British delegation, Finnish Ambassador
Ibrahim talks political developments with Firouznia, Ahmed Hariri
Derian meets Sheikh Ahmad Qabalan, Nigerian Ambassador
Bahia Hariri Says PM-Designate 'Not on a Retreat' in Paris
Hasbani: Finance Committee has approved health card bill
Jumblatt tackles developments with French President’s envoy
Geagea talks current developments with Greek ambassador
Kataeb MP Nadim Gemayel: Protection of Lebanon Requires Government
Formation, National Unity
Abu Nader Warns Lebanon Facing 'Existential' Crisis
Customs Duties, Competition Hit Lebanese Hopes for Quick Boost from Open
Syria Border
The Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah: Military Dualism in Post-War
Lebanon
Hezbollah's Role in a New Lebanese Government Causes a Headache for Hariri
Titles For The Latest LCCC
Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November 05-06/18
Pakistan Blasphemy Case Lawyer Says EU, U.N. Made Him Leave against His
Wishes
France Issues Arrest Warrants for Three Senior Syrian Officials
Iran President Vows to Defy US Sanctions
Sanctions Resume as US Set to Announce New Iran Blacklist
Lieberman Thanks Trump as Iran Sanctions Take Effect
U.S. Vows 'Relentless' Sanctions as Iran Defiant
Netanyahu Calls Start of New Iran Sanctions a 'Historic Day'
Iran Revolutionary Guards Commemorate Anniversary of US Hostage Crisis
Israeli Minister in Oman to Attend Transportation Conference
Israeli Forces Storm Headquarters of Ministry of Jerusalem Affairs
US Patrols in Syria’s Kurdish Regions Near Turkey Border
Damascus Ready for 'Conditional Cooperation' with Pedersen
Putin’s Special Envoy, Syria’s Assad Discuss Formation of Constitutional
Committee
Egypt: ISIS Religious Edicts Provoke Killing Christians
Egypt President Vows to Guarantee Freedom of Worship
Khashoggi Killing: Sons Ask Saudis to Return His Body
Palestinians in Syria's Yarmuk Yearn for Outside Help
Jerusalem’s Catholic leaders seek repeal of Israel’s Jewish nation-state law
The Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
November 05-06/18
Hezbollah Attached to
Sunni March 8 Representation amid Islamic Criticism
Beirut /Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 4 November, 2018/The
formation of a new Lebanese governed continued to stall on Saturday as the
March 8 camp, particularly Hezbollah, remained insistent on naming all six
deputies in the new cabinet. “The issue of the representation of the
independent Sunni ministers is not new,” said Hezbollah deputy chief Sheikh
Naim Qassem said Saturday, renewing the party’s attachment to have those
deputies represented in the new cabinet. “As Hezbollah, we chose not express
our views to the media over the Druze, Christian and Sunni hurdles. We
expressed our stances to the concerned officials and Prime
Minister-designate to facilitate the formation process,” he added. “We have
repeatedly said that the Sunni representation is essential. Just as they
resolved the Lebanese Forces and Druze representations obstacles, they must
work on ending the independent Sunni ministers issue,” he stated.
Hezbollah’s position was countered by criticism from the Higher Islamic
Council, headed by Lebanon's Grand Mufti Abdel Latif Derian, which said that
parties hindering the birth of the new government aim to paralyze the state
and its constitutional institutions. The Council asserted the importance of
forming a new government in a calm and collaborative political manner,
instead of creating tension and taking stringent positions. For his part,
former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said the so-called “Sunni hurdle” was a
fabricated problem to hinder the formation process. Prime Minister-designate
Saad Hariri refuses that a minister be appointed to represent the Sunni
March 8 deputies in his new cabinet. On Thursday, he traveled to Paris
without offering any details about the latest developments related to the
government formation process. A day earlier, President Michel Aoun said the
independent Sunni deputies, who demand a ministerial portfolio, “do not form
a bloc."
Since his comments, Hezbollah and the president have had no direct
contact to discuss the “Sunni hurdle.”
Zakka Says Lebanese
State in 'Coma' over His Detention
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68688/%d9%86%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%b2%d9%83%d8%a7-%d8%af%d9%88%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d8%b2%d8%a7%d9%84-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%ba%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%88%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d9%83%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a9-zakka/
Lebanese citizen and permanent U.S. resident Nizar Zakka has lamented that
the Lebanese state seems to be in “full coma” over his continued
imprisonment in Iran. In a statement distributed by his family, Zakka
thanked the Iranian “political prisoners” who are jailed with him
“underground” for celebrating his birthday. “They prepared dishes, each
according to the traditions of his region, as an apology gesture on behalf
of those who abducted me and because inviting a person and then arresting
him arbitrarily does not reflect the manners of the Iranians,” Zakka said,
in a jab at Iranian authorities.He also thanked the prison guards who took
part in the dinner banquet. Zakka has been detained in Iran since 2015 over
spying allegations. He was sentenced in 2016 to 10 years in prison and a
$4.2 million fine. In his letter, Zakka also thanked the Lebanese Equestrian
Federation, his son Omar and the Lebanese community in Washington for
celebrating his birthday, lamenting that the Lebanese state “is still in
full coma, ignoring the case of a Lebanese citizen who was abducted in
Tehran while being there on an official invitation.”General Security chief
Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim had met Zakka in his prison in August. Ibrahim said
at the time that "efforts have started with the Iranian authorities to
secure the release of Nizar Zakka."Zakka, who lived in Washington and held
resident status in the U.S., was the leader of the Arab ICT Organization, or
IJMA3, an industry consortium from 13 countries that advocates for
information technology in the region. Zakka disappeared Sept. 18, 2015,
during his fifth trip to Iran. He had been invited to attend a conference at
which President Hassan Rouhani spoke of providing more economic
opportunities for women and sustainable development.
On Nov. 3, Iranian state television aired a report saying he was in custody
and calling him a spy with "deep links" with U.S. intelligence services. It
also showed what it described as a damning photo of Zakka and three other
men in army-style uniforms, two with flags and two with rifles on their
shoulders. But that turned out to be from a homecoming event at Zakka's prep
school, the Riverside Military Academy in Georgia, according to the school's
president. The Associated Press has reported that Zakka's IJMA3 organization
had received at least $730,000 in contracts and grants since 2009 from both
the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development,
USAID. Zakka's supporters had written former U.S. secretary of state John
Kerry stating that Zakka traveled to Iran "with the knowledge and approval
of the U.S. State Department, and his trip was funded by grants" from it.
Neither American nor Lebanese officials, who the U.S. says are responsible
for providing consular assistance to Zakka, have publicly acknowledged
Zakka's work with the U.S. government.
Rahi from Baabda: Aoun will not accept government
formation be hindered
Mon 05 Nov 2018/NNA - President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, on
Monday welcomed at the Baabda palace Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Bechara
Boutros Rahi, with talks reportedly touching on the general situation in the
country. Speaking on emerging, Patrirach Rahi underlined the dire need to
support the efforts of President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate in
the government formation issue. Rahi stressed the importance of consecrating
national unity, saying President Aoun will not accept that government
formation be hindered. The Patriarch called for facilitating Cabinet
formation process, instead of placing obstacles and impediments. He stressed
the need to uphold internal balances in a bid to move forward. "We all stand
in solidarity with the President and we want all parties to support his
position," Rahi maintained, saying solutions should not be at the account of
Lebanon, unity and internal balance. In reply to a question about the date
of the meeting between former Minister Sleiman Franjieh and Lebanese Forces
leader Samir Geagea, Rahi said the specific date of the meeting has not yet
been set, adding "it might be imminent."
Al-Rahi Visits Aoun, Confirms Geagea to Meet Franjieh
Soon
Naharnet/November 05/18/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi confirmed Monday
that a much-anticipated reconciliation meeting between Lebanese Forces
leader Samir Geagea and Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh will be held
“soon,” as he stressed the need to facilitate the formation of the new
government. Speaking after talks with President Michel Aoun at the Baabda
Palace, al-Rahi called for “supporting the efforts of the president and the
prime minister-designate in order to form the government,” while emphasizing
“the need to achieve national unity.”“President Aoun will not accept the
formation of the government to remain faltering,” the patriarch added.
Noting that “strength is not about putting sticks in the wheels but rather
about facilitating the formation of the government,” al-Rahi expressed
“solidarity” with President Aoun. “We hope everyone will support his stance
and the solutions will not be at the expense of Lebanon, internal unity or
domestic balance as the president calls it,” the patriarch went on to say.
Responding to a reporter’s question, al-Rahi said: “The date of the meeting
between ex-minister Suleiman Franjieh and the leader of the LF party has not
yet been decided but it might be held soon.”
Aoun: Israeli claims about missile sites bogus
Mon 05 Nov 2018/NNA - President Michel Aoun on Monday deprecated the Israeli
enemy's continuous claims about the presence of missile sites in populated
areas in Lebanon, especially nearby Rafic Hariri International Airport.
"These allegations are bogus and they are taking place while the Israeli
violation of the Lebanese sovereignty persists," Aoun said. The President's
remarks came during his meeting at Baabda palace with the United Kingdom's
Senior Defence Advisor for the Middle East, Lieutenant General Sir John
Gordon Lorimer, and an accompanying delegation. Talks reportedly featured
high on the security and military situation in Lebanon and the broader
region, in addition to the bilateral cooperation between the Lebanese and
British armies. During the meeting, Aoun thanked the British government for
its support for the Lebanese army in its battle against terrorism,
highlighting the necessity to keep vigil in order to preserve stability and
security. The President also tackled Lebanon's position from the displaced
Syrians' issue and the necessity that they return home. Accordingly, he
welcomed that ongoing efforts aiming to reach a solution to the Syrian
crisis. Aoun also warned of dividing Syria, stressing on the Syrian
territorial integrity. "Lebanon cannot await the political solution to this
crisis so that the displaced return to Syria," he underlined. Moreover, Aoun
renewed calls to work on reaching a permanent and just solution to the
Palestinian Cause, underlining the reverberations of cutting the funding of
UNRWA and the implicit intentions to settle Palestinians in the host
countries. Separately, Aoun cabled Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi,
to whom he offered condolences following the deadly attack that had targeted
a bus with Coptic pilgrims on board. Aoun had earlier met with the Apostolic
Nuncio to Lebanon, Joseph Spiteri, who conveyed to him a letter from Pope
Francis. In his letter, Pope Francis maintained that "the cause of peace in
the Middle East, just like elsewhere in the world, constitutes a common
concern we share with President Michel Aoun."The Pope also expressed hope
that the relations between Lebanon and the Holy See would contribute to
finding effective and permanent solutions to the conflicts in the region.
Spiteri also informed the President of the imminent visit of the Prefect of
the Congregation for the Oriental Churches, Cardinal Leonardo Sandri, to
Lebanon.
Hariri Informs Aoun of Contacts to Solve EDL Fuel
Problem
Naharnet/November 05/18/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri contacted
President Michel Aoun from Paris and informed him on the outcome of his
contacts with Algerian officials that led to the decision to unload fuel
from the two Algerian tanker ships to supply Electricite Du Liban, the
Premier’s press office said on Monday. Hariri will continue his contacts
with the Algerian officials to find a permanent solution to the issue in the
coming days, it added. Earlier during the day, caretaker Energy Minister
Cesar Abi Khalil said he visited Aoun at the Presidential Palace and
notified him that the power barges will start supplying fuel as of today.
Abi Khalil also said he informed Aoun of the solution reached to fulfill the
country's fuel needs and the measures that had been taken to curb the
electricity crisis. Additional power cuts were feared to hit Lebanon as the
result of failure to provide necessary funds for purchasing fuel. A blackout
was feared as Zouk and Jiyyeh power plants were expected to turn off this
week. Lebanon has been contending with rolling blackouts since the days of
its 1975-1990 civil war. Successive governments have failed to agree on a
permanent solution for the chronic electricity failures, largely because of
profiteering, endemic corruption and lack of political will.
Abi Khalil Says Funds Provided for Fuel Barges, ‘No Extra Power Cuts’
Naharnet/November 05/18/Caretaker Energy Minister Cesar Abi Khalil said on
Monday that additional power cuts feared to hit Lebanon as the result of
failure to provide necessary funds for purchasing fuel have been resolved.
"I have notified President Michel Aoun that the power barges will start
supplying fuel as of today; and there will be no electricity cuts," Abi
Khalil told reporters following a meeting with President Michel Aoun at
Baabda palace. A blackout was feared as Zouk and Jiyyeh power plants were
expected to turn off this week. Abi Khalil informed Aoun of the solution
reached to fulfill the country's fuel needs and the measures that had been
taken to curb the electricity crisis. The Minister also indicated that he
had updated the President about the Algerian side's readiness to continue
providing the needed fuel supply. "The President appreciated the Algerian
position and contacted Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, who in turn,
highly valued the initiative of Sonatrach company," Abi Khalil said. Lebanon
has been contending with rolling blackouts since the days of its 1975-1990
civil war. Successive governments have failed to agree on a permanent
solution for the chronic electricity failures, largely because of
profiteering, endemic corruption and lack of political will.
Berri meets British delegation, Finnish Ambassador
Mon 05 Nov 2018/NNA - Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri, met at his Ain-el-Tineh
residence on Monday, with the United Kingdom's Senior Defence Advisor for
the Middle East, Lieutenant General Sir John Gordon Lorimer, and an
accompanying delegation, in presence of Chargé D'Affaires of the British
Embassy in Beirut, Benjamin Wastnage. Talks reportedly touched on the
current situation in Lebanon and the broader region. Berri later met with UN
Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator and Resident Representative of the
United Nations Development Programme in Lebanon, Philippe Lazzarini.The
Speaker also welcomed the new Finnish Ambassador to Lebanon, Tarja
Fernandez, who came on a protocol visit.
Ibrahim talks political developments with Firouznia, Ahmed Hariri
Mon 05 Nov 2018/NNA - General Security chief, Abbas Ibrahim, on Monday
received in his office Future Movement Secretary General, Ahmed Hariri, with
whom he discussed most recent political developments. Maj. Gen. Ibrahim also
met with the new Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon, Mohammad Jalal Firouznia,
who came on a courtesy visit. Talks reportedly touched on the general
situation. Ibrahim wished the Iranian ambassador success in his new mission.
Derian meets Sheikh Ahmad Qabalan, Nigerian Ambassador
Mon 05 Nov 2018/NNA - Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdullatif Derian met at
Dar-al-Fatwa on Monday, with Excellent Jaafarite Mufti, Sheikh Ahmad Qabalan,
with talks touching on affairs relevant to media and the impact of some TV
shows on the Lebanese society. "We discussed with Mufti Derian the necessity
to hold a meeting for the high-level spiritual leaders in order to follow up
and dwell on what is happening in media, regarding TV shows that constitute
a violation of all the values and public manners affecting the Lebanese
society," Sheikh Qabalan told reporters following the meeting. "We agreed
with Mufti Derian over the necessity to carry on coordination to follow up
on these affairs, in collaboration with Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rahi,
Druze Sheikh Aql Neem Hassan, and the Supreme Islamic Shia Council," he
said. "God willing, there will be a conference to tackle this issue," he
added. Separately, Derian met with Nigerian Ambassador to Lebanon, Goni Modu
Zanna Bura, over the means to bolster relations between the two countries.
Bahia Hariri Says PM-Designate 'Not on a Retreat' in Paris
Naharnet/November 05/18/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri is “not on a
retreat” in the French capital Paris, MP Bahia Hariri said on Monday. “The
PM-designate is not on a retreat and he is taking his time in the issue of
(the cabinet) formation,” the lawmaker, who is also Hariri’s aunt, said.
“We’re full of hope that after President Michel Aoun’s remarks we will head
towards a solution,” the MP added. Hariri has been in Paris on a private
visit since Thursday according to his office. His departure after a
last-minute hurdle delayed the formation of his long-awaited government has
raised speculation that the PM-designate has left the country in protest at
the current situation. The new cabinet was on the verge of formation last
Monday after the Lebanese Forces accepted the portfolios that were assigned
to it but a row over the representation of pro-Hizbullah Sunni MPs surfaced.
Hizbullah has backed the MPs' demand and refrained from providing Hariri
with the names of its own ministers in a bid to press him to accept giving a
seat to the aforementioned Sunni grouping. Hariri has reportedly announced
that he'd rather step down than give the MPs a seat from his own ministerial
share.
Hasbani: Finance Committee has approved health card
bill
Mon 05 Nov 2018/NNA - The remaining items of the law proposal on the health
card have been approved by the Finance and Budget House committee this
morning, a statement by the press office of Caretaker Health Minister,
Ghassan Hasbani, announced on Monday. Speaking later from the Parliament,
Hasbani indicated that the bill would take its course at the Parliament to
become an effective law.
Jumblatt tackles developments with French President’s envoy
Mon 05 Nov 2018/NNA - Progressive Socialist Party Leader, Walid Jumblatt,
welcomed on Monday French President Emanuel Marcon’s Special Envoy,
Aureliane le Chevalier. The meeting reportedly focused on the most recent
developments in Lebanon and the region.
Geagea talks current developments with Greek ambassador
Mon 05 Nov 2018/NNA - Lebanese Forces leader, Samir Geagea, on Monday
welcomed in Meerab the new Greek Ambassador to Lebanon, Franciscos Verros,
who came on a courtesy visit. Talks reportedly touched on most recent
developments in Lebanon and the broader region.
Kataeb MP Nadim Gemayel: Protection of Lebanon Requires Government
Formation, National Unity
Kataeb.org/Monday 05th November 2018/Kataeb MP Nadim Gemayel on Monday met
with Maronite Archbishop of Beirut, Boulos Matar, with talks featuring high
on the latest developments in the country. Following the meeting, Gemayel
hoped that a government would be formed as soon as possible, stressing that
the obstruction of the formation process jeopardizes the country and puts it
at risk amid the manifold challenges facing it. "It is good to see that both
the president and prime minister-designate agree on the so-called 'Sunni
indepedent lawmakers knot'. Therefore, they both should take the initiative
and form a government swiftly because the country needs it," he said. "The
country can no longer endure the repercussions of any further delay," he
cautioned. Gemayel called on Hezbollah to halt its obstructive demands,
stressing that the government formation is key to the protection of the
country. “I tell Hezbollah that the only guarantee of Lebanon’s continuance
lies in the formation of a government and in the consolidation of national
unity." Gemayel declined to assess President Michel Aoun's performance three
years after his election, warning, however, that the country is going
through a dangerous phase on the political and economic levels.
Abu Nader Warns Lebanon Facing 'Existential' Crisis
Kataeb.org/Monday 05th November 2018/Kataeb leader's top adviser, Fouad Abu
Nader, on Monday warned that Lebanon's identity and power-sharing formula is
at stake, saying that the country is now facing an "existential" crisis.
"The Taef Agreement was a mere settlement that soon stumbled because it only
focused on temporary changes in Lebanon, while disregarding the real
dilemma, which is national unity," Abu Nader wrote on Twitter. "Our internal
divisions are preventing all-inclusive, unified decisions," he added.
Customs Duties, Competition Hit Lebanese Hopes for
Quick Boost from Open Syria Border
Reuters/Monday 05th November 2018
Lebanese exporters hoping to send their goods to the lucrative Gulf market
through the reopened Syrian-Jordanian border are grappling with higher
Syrian customs duties and competition from producers who have taken their
place. The Oct. 15 reopening of the Nassib border crossing holds out the
prospect of a much-needed boost for Lebanon’s economy, reviving a trade
artery for the overland export of its fruit, vegetables and manufactured
goods. But at the Masnaa border, where hundreds of trucks used to cross into
Syria each day, there is no sign yet of traffic recovering to the level that
existed before the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011.“They are saying the
crossing is open. It is just talk,” said Mohamad Abdulrahman al-Bob, a fruit
and vegetable merchant, speaking at his packing plant in the Bekaa
Valley.“The security is there, but it’s taxes, taxes,” he said, explaining
why he has yet to send his goods overland.
“Nothing is clear.”
The amount of goods he exports has halved from 2011 with all his exports
today via sea or air. The Nassib crossing was reopened after the Syrian
government defeated rebels in the southwest in a Russian-backed offensive.
The Syrian government decided in September to increase customs duties on
goods transiting through its territory, a decision aimed at providing
support for Syrian seaports, state news agency SANA said. Lebanon’s
caretaker economy minister Raed Khoury said he had held talks with his
Syrian counterpart to urge a reduction of the five-fold increase in the
level of customs being applied by Damascus.“Their response is that ‘We, as a
country, suffered and the roads are destroyed’ and they want to rebuild the
roads,” he told Reuters in an interview. “Our response is that we, as a
country (also) suffered from the problem in Syria.” Khoury said more
negotiations were needed. “This won’t happen quickly,” he added.
COMPLICATED TIES
Lebanon’s ties with Syria are complicated by the state’s official policy of
“disassociation” from regional conflicts. While some Lebanese leaders are
urging a full normalisation of ties, others oppose this. Khoury said the two
biggest problems obstructing a recovery of Lebanese exports are the
competition from other countries and the fact that, cut off from export
markets, many Lebanese producers had been forced out of business.
Before the Syrian conflict, Lebanon exported around $800 million worth of
goods via Nassib annually, he said. Agricultural produce accounted for $200
to $300 million of the amount, with the rest being manufactured goods.
He estimates that around 40 trucks are entering Syria from Lebanon, compared
to 400 a day before 2011. The reopening of Nassib is seen as a rare chink of
light in an otherwise bleak economic outlook. The World Bank said that
Lebanon would likely benefit from it in a report that revised down the 2018
growth projection to 1 percent.Revival of the export route can’t come soon
enough for Wissam al-Samad, who owns a refrigerated warehouse stacked high
with grapes. “When Lebanese goods disappeared from the Gulf market, foreign
products replaced them,” he said.
“Work is down by half.”
The Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah: Military Dualism in Post-War
Lebanon
أرام ناركزيان: الجيش اللبناني وحزب الله: الثنائي العسكري في لبنان ما بعد
الحرب
Aram
Nerguizian/Italian Institute for International Political Studies/November
05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68690/aram-nerguizian-italian-institute-for-international-political-studies-the-lebanese-armed-forces-and-hezbollah-military-dualism-in-post-war-lebanon-%d8%a3%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%83/
Lebanon’s competing sectarian political parties have devised a
delicately-balanced political system leaving them stronger than state
institutions. Despite the primacy of this system, the Lebanese Armed Forces
(LAF) have become an increasingly professional and capable national military
institution after the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in 2005.
However the LAF has failed to curtail the autonomy of Lebanon’s political
forces, and it has struggled to stave off political penetration of military
ranks.
This paradox, combined with the geopolitical forces that shaped Lebanon’s
post-war political order, have led to the hybridization of security
governance, wherein parallel non-state military actors retain both their
operational autonomy and national security legitimacy.
The most obvious manifestation of this are the asymmetric military forces of
Hezbollah, a militant Shia political movement which has been represented in
parliament continuously since 1992 and at the ministerial level in the
Council of Ministers since 2005.
This military dualism endured for almost thirty years, during which the LAF
and Hezbollah simultaneously enjoyed a degree of legitimacy and cohabited
despite their divergent raisons d'être and developmental trajectories.
However, as they evolved and expanded their national security roles and
prerogatives in post-Syria Lebanon, military dualism became increasingly
brittle as new lines of friction between the LAF and Hezbollah turned into
lasting features of Lebanon’s national security landscape.
THE RISE OF MILITARY DUALISM IN POST-WAR LEBANON
Hybrid security governance is an anomalous feature of post-war Lebanon. Soon
after independence in 1943, the LAF acquired the role of arbiter between
rival sectarian and political alliances in 1958 when the LAF intervened
directly to neutralize the political imbalance created by a short-lived
civil war. The ensuing counter-struggle by confessional elites to restore
their patronage networks culminated in the defeat of the military-backed
political establishment in the 1970 presidential election and the
dismantling of the Deuxième Bureau – the LAF’s military intelligence
apparatus. The long civil war of 1975-1990 consequently fragmented the LAF
along sectarian lines, and gave way to the sectarian militia order of the
civil war years.
As part of Lebanon’s postwar political settlement under the Ta’if Agreement
(1989), militias successfully underwent disarmament, demobilization, and
partial reintegration. The Pax Syriana era transformed the LAF
substantially. Syria’s security and intelligence apparatus in Lebanon worked
to recast the LAF into an impenetrable pro-Syrian institution, disconnected
from government oversight and control. The former achieved this by
interposing itself between the Lebanese military and the country’s political
system, thereby quickly penetrating and regulating Lebanese civil-military
affairs.
In parallel, one key exception to the dismantling of Lebanon’s post-war
militia order was Hezbollah, which enjoyed support from Syria and political
patronage from its main international sponsor Iran. Though the civil war was
over, Ta’if would serve to reinforce and legitimize the group under the
aegis of Lebanese “Resistance” against Israeli occupation, at a time when
Israel controlled 10 percent of Lebanon’s territory, thereby consecrating
the hybrid security governance system that remains a divisive feature of
Lebanon’s national security landscape.
The departure of Syria’s military and intelligence personnel in 2005
disrupted its monopoly on Lebanese foreign and military policy
decision-making. Their departure also heralded the return of polarized
sectarian politics, the decay of Lebanon’s post-war executive structure, and
competing efforts to penetrate and shape the orientation of the post-Syria
LAF.
SECURITY POLITICS IN POST-SYRIA LEBANON
The 2005 to 2017 period was defined by two competing trends in hybrid
security governance in post-war Lebanon. On the one hand, the LAF attempted
to maintain and develop its military credibility and autonomy. On the other,
competing political factions rapidly reasserted themselves after the
withdrawal of Syrian security and intelligence personnel and were eager to
penetrate and regulate the post-Syria LAF.
First, between 2005 and 2008, the pro-Western 14 March alliance sought to
marginalize officers who had either trained in Syria or who had ties to
pro-Syrian political forces. The rival 8 March alliance aligned with Syria
and Iran similarly sought in 2008-2010 to sideline officers who had received
U.S. military education, or were suspected of supporting U.S. policies in
the region. Both political camps solicited officers seen to be ideologically
sympathetic and strove to promote their professional advancement.
While the LAF struggled to define and preserve itself amidst the
polarization of post-Syria Lebanon, Hezbollah sought to adapt to changing
regional fortunes. During much of the post-war period, Hezbollah’s power and
autonomy were limited by the preferences of the Assad regime in Damascus.
However, faced with a growing array of Western-led pressures meant to
isolate both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria regionally, Hezbollah quickly
gained greater freedom of action at the domestic political level in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, driven by strategic competition with U.S. regional allies Saudi
Arabia and Israel, Tehran would seek to further develop the militant group’s
asymmetric deterrence capabilities.
The LAF’s and Hezbollah’s post-Syria priorities were often in tension over
the 2005 to 2010 period. The 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah showed
that Syria and Iran could use the transfer of ever-more advanced weapons
systems to bolster the group’s domestic and regional bona fides. By
contrast, the LAF was largely a bystander in the 33-day conflict of 2006
with only symbolic actions against Israeli forces. Conversely, the LAF’s
2007 fight against Fatah al-Islam militants in the Nahr el-Bared Palestinian
refugee camp showed that the LAF could assert itself and play a preeminent
national security role despite the Government of Lebanon’s and the country’s
competing March 8 and March 14 alliances’ reluctance to follow suit.
While 2007 was a low point for hybrid security governance, 2008 saw painful
reversals when the LAF avoided a direct confrontation with Hezbollah during
Beirut street clashes between the Shia militant group and an embryonic Sunni
militia of the mainly Sunni 14 March-aligned Future Movement. Some in the
LAF saw May 2008 as a case of military neutrality; conversely, others saw it
as a “missed opportunity” for the military to signal its objection to
domestic military action by any of the country’s competing
political/sectarian forces.
The geopolitical battle for Syria started in late 2010 made these competing
trends even more complex. Buoyed by mainly U.S. external security assistance
and the threat from the spillover of jihadist groups like the Islamic State
in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from the Syrian civil war, the LAF saw active
combat in in 2012 and 2013, while the LAF engaged in large-scale defensive
and offensive military operations in 2014 and 2017 respectively, against an
external military threat for the first time in the post-war period.
Meanwhile, an active military role alongside Assad regime forces in Syria,
and the increasingly sectarian nature of Syria’s civil war, enabled
Hezbollah to bolster its own national security narrative in Lebanon and the
region.
Initially, the LAF’s post-2010 posture in the national security arena seemed
poised to erode the rational for hybrid security arrangements in post-war
Lebanon. However, the LAF’s thrust to assert national security primacy over
groups like Hezbollah would soon begin to stall. An unprecedented military
leadership crisis between August 2016 and March 2017 proved especially
detrimental: a protracted stalemate in Lebanon’s sectarian political system
led to the retirement of key senior officers, botched critical transitions
in key command-level posts, and saw the advancement of officers that were
either unwilling or unable to sustain the arc of the LAF’s 2010-2016
military transformation.
THE LIMITS OF MILITARY AUTONOMY IN POST-WAR LEBANON
The LAF’s 2017 Dawn of the Hills campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq
and Syria (ISIS) illustrates the durability of military dualism in post-war
Lebanon. The LAF’s meticulously executed operation caught Hezbollah and most
of Lebanon’s sectarian political forces by surprise. However, rather than
decisively challenging hybridity in national security politics, the LAF’s
national security credibility was challenged yet again when Hezbollah
unilaterally reached an agreement for ISIS to withdraw from Lebanon,
retroactively took credit for LAF successes, and promoted a narrative of
secret cooperation between its cadres, the LAF, and Assad forces.
There is little doubt that the post-war LAF remains the country’s most
representative national institution, and highly popular across Lebanon’s
confessional dividing lines. It enjoys strong relationships with key
international partners, including the United States, has significantly
bolstered its national security credentials, and it is eager to play a
larger national security role. However, the LAF cannot unilaterally counter
the sources of national security hybridity in post-Syria Lebanon: the very
same confessional political system that grants Hezbollah a level of communal
integration and protection the military can scarcely hope to challenge
alone.
In turn, Hezbollah benefits from its preeminent role in Lebanon’s post-war
political order. No state institution – including the LAF – will openly
challenge Hezbollah’s domestic credibility with its own Shia constituency,
and the group’s Resistance operations and expeditionary campaign in Syria
have further strengthened Hezbollah’s domestic legitimacy. However, unlike
the LAF, Hezbollah does not have the legitimacy and credibility of one of
the Middle East’s few fighting militaries, and its preference for hybrid
security arrangements does not enjoy the kind of support that was afforded
to the group as a result of the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah conflict.
On the surface, the determination that both the LAF and Hezbollah wish to
play a larger role shaping Lebanese national security politics suggests that
there may not be enough room for two preeminent – albeit very distinct –
military institutions in post-war Lebanon. However, Hezbollah’s role as a
key player in Lebanon’s sectarian political system, and the LAF’s struggle
for autonomy in post-war Syria have served to blunt the possibility of open
confrontation between the two thus far. Whether this unstable balance
persists or not will depend on the trajectory of Lebanon’s precarious
sectarian politics, the scale and scope of regional and strategic
competition in the Levant, and the ever-present wild card of another
Israeli-Hezbollah conflict.
Hezbollah's Role in a New Lebanese Government Causes a Headache for Hariri
مايكل يانغ: دور حزب الله في الحكومة الجديدة يسبب صداعاً للحريري
Michael Young/The National/November 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68692/michael-young-the-national-hezbollahs-role-in-a-new-lebanese-government-causes-a-headache-for-hariri-%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%8a%d9%83%d9%84-%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%ba-%d8%af%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8/
News that a new government may soon be
formed will cheer many in Lebanon, who are increasingly anxious about the
dire economic situation in the country. Until a government takes office,
Lebanon will remain in limbo while awaiting urgent policies to address its
ballooning public debt.
However, a new government could conceivably represent a headache for the
Lebanese, at least if the prime minister-designate Saad Hariri chooses to
appoint a Hezbollah figure to be health minister, as seems likely.
Legislation passed by the US Congress and signed by President Donald Trump
last week explains why.The amended legislation threatens to sanction
individuals who knowingly assist, support, recruit, or fundraise for
Hezbollah. More significantly, it also sanctions “agencies of foreign
governments” that provide the party with arms, financial support, or other
forms of assistance. And it also increases sanctions on Hezbollah’s criminal
networks, including alleged drug trafficking networks.
Following Lebanon’s parliamentary elections last May, US officials in Beirut
made it clear to Mr Hariri that they would oppose a decision to hand the
health ministry to a member of Hezbollah. Their argument was that at a time
when the United States was tightening the screws on Iran and Hezbollah,
America would not take kindly to a decision that gave the party significant
patronage power. The ministry is often used by politicians or parties to
provide free medical care to supporters, and can generate considerable
political capital.
All the signs are that Mr Hariri has ignored these warnings. Hezbollah has
insisted on the ministry for several reasons. First, with funding from Iran
having diminished owing to US sanctions, the party needs other means to
provide services to an electorate unhappy with its focus on Syria in the
past five years. Moreover, with the economy in crisis and Hezbollah having
to take care of its members injured in the Syrian conflict, a services
ministry was seen as a priority.
The party also feels that the momentum is going its way. Hezbollah and its
allies appear to have won in Syria, the results of the Lebanese elections
were to its advantage, and now the party is seeking to capitalise on all
this by demanding that seats in the government be reserved for its allies.
Where this will leave Lebanon, however, is uncertain. One passage in the US
legislation should make Lebanese officials wary. It refers to the
sanctioning of “certain instrumentalities and agencies of foreign states”,
and sets as a condition that the agency in question must have “provided
significant financial support for or to, or significant arms or related
materiel to” Hezbollah.
Would Washington consider free healthcare to Hezbollah members provided by
the health ministry as an example of “significant financial support”? It’s
difficult to say that it would never do so. Moreover, there has been talk
that if the US takes measures to block the export of medicines to the
ministry, Iran would step in to supply medicines of its own − a move that
would anger the Trump administration. The sanctions, as outlined in the
legislation, are described as the exercise of powers “to the extent
necessary to block and prohibit all transactions in all property and
interests in property of an agency or instrumentality of a foreign state if
such property and interests in property are in the United States, come
within the United States, or are or come within the possession or control of
a United States person”.
Behind the dry, bureaucratic language, the legislation effectively indicates
that if the Trump administration were to sanction the health ministry, the
US might seek to prevent dollar transactions in which the ministry engages.
This could affect the wide network of hospitals and medical providers with
which it works, and it is conceivable that many companies would simply
refuse to work with the ministry.
However, there is more to this situation than what happens to the ministry.
In recent years, the United States has continued to provide aid to the
Lebanese army and state, despite protests from some quarters in the US who
affirm that Lebanon and Hezbollah are one and the same. There remains
goodwill towards Beirut in the US capital, but it is hardly etched in stone.
Placing a Hezbollah minister over the health ministry could alter this
favourable mood considerably. Once that happens, it will take a great deal
to bring relations back to normal. Lest the Lebanese forget, the US
significantly downgraded its involvement in Lebanon in 1984, and it took
more than a decade for it to fully re-engage with the state. Lebanon is
highly dependent on dollar transactions, an open economy, and the travel of
its citizens to and from the US, so it makes no sense for it to alienate
Washington, especially at a time when it has lost so much of the backing it
once had among Gulf states. It’s unclear what motivated Mr Hariri to ignore
the American counsel, particularly when he has spent the past five months
heeding each and every condition from his partners in government. The prime
minister-designate may feel he doesn’t owe anything to Washington, but nor
is a financially debilitated Lebanon capable of weathering a clash with a
superpower. If his decision brings the Lebanese new woes, he will have only
himself to blame.
The Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News
published
on
November 05-06/18
Pakistan Blasphemy Case Lawyer Says EU, U.N. Made Him
Leave against His Wishes
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 05/18/A Pakistani lawyer who saved a
Christian woman convicted of blasphemy from death row said Monday that the
U.N. and EU made him leave the country "against my wishes" because his life
was at risk. Saif-ul-Malook, who has fled to the Netherlands, said he
contacted a United Nations official in Islamabad after Islamist violence
erupted following the Pakistani Supreme Court's acquittal of Asia Bibi on
Wednesday. "And then they (the U.N.) and the European nation ambassadors in
Islamabad, they kept me for three days and then put me on a plane against my
wishes," the lawyer told a press conference in The Hague.
France Issues Arrest Warrants for Three Senior Syrian
Officials
AFP/Monday 05th November 2018/France has issued international arrest
warrants for three senior Syrian intelligence officials in connection with
the deaths of two Franco-Syrian nationals, legal sources said Monday. The
warrants, which target National Security Bureau director Ali Mamluk and two
others, were issued for "complicity in acts of torture", "complicity in
crimes against humanity" and "complicity in war crimes".The warrants were
issued on October 8 but made public only on Monday, according to the
International Federation for Human Rights advocacy group (FIDH). The other
high-ranking officials sought are Jamil Hassan, head of the Syrian air
force's intelligence agency, and Abdel Salam Mahmoud, in charge of the air
force intelligence's investigative branch at the Mezzeh military airport in
Damascus. They are wanted in connection with the disappearance of Mazen and
Patrick Dabbagh, a father and son, who were arrested in November 2013 and
went missing after being detained in the Mezzeh detention centre, according
to the FIDH.
Iran
President Vows to Defy US Sanctions
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 November, 2018/Iranian President
Hassan Rouhani vowed on Monday to defy the newly re-imposed US sanctions. He
condemned the sanctions as an “economic war” Washington is waging in an
attempt to curb Tehran’s missile and nuclear programs and weaken its
influence in the Middle East. The US move restores sanctions lifted under a
2015 nuclear deal negotiated by the administration of President Barack Obama
and five other world powers. It adds 300 new designations in Iran’s oil,
shipping, insurance and banking sectors. “Today the enemy (the United
States) is targeting our economy...the main target of sanctions is our
people,” Rouhani said. “America wanted to cut to zero Iran’s oil sales… but
we will continue to sell our oil...to break sanctions,” he told economists
at a meeting broadcast live on state television. "I announce that we will
proudly bypass your illegal, unjust sanctions because it's against
international regulations," he said. The sanctions were illegal and unfair,
he said. “This is an economic war against Iran but ... America should learn
that it cannot use the language of force against Iran ... We are prepared to
resist any pressure,” Rouhani said. Trump announced in May his government
was withdrawing from what he called the “worst ever” agreement negotiated by
the United States. “Iran is a much different country than it was when I took
office,” said Trump, adding: “They wanted to take over the whole Middle
East. Right now they just want to survive.”The latest tranche of US
sanctions aims to significantly cut Iran's oil exports -- which have already
fallen by up to one million barrels a day since May -- and cut off its banks
from international finance. The United States has given temporary exemptions
to eight countries -- including India, Japan and Turkey -- to continue
buying oil in a bid to avoid disturbing their economies and global markets.
But US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo vowed to push Iran's oil sales to
zero. "Watch what we do. Watch as we've already taken more crude oil off the
market than any time in previous history," he told CBS's "Face the Nation"
on Sunday. Iran's economy was already suffering major structural problems --
including widespread corruption, weak investment and a banking sector laden
with toxic assets -- before Trump walked out of the nuclear deal. But
Trump's announcement in May helped fuel a run on Iran's currency that has
seen the rial lose more than two thirds of its value, driving up prices and
forcing the government to resort to food handouts for the country's poor.
Sanctions Resume as US Set to Announce New Iran
Blacklist
Washington - Heba El Koudsy /Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 4 November, 2018/The
United States is set to announce the full list of Iranian entities that are
being targeted in the latest round of sanctions that took effect on Monday.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took to Twitter to defend his country’s
re-imposition of sanctions amid criticism that they will spark long-term
tensions between Washington and Tehran. Tweeting on the 39th anniversary of
the US hostage crisis in Iran, he said: “Their courage & resolve over 444
days in captivity continues to underscore our commitment to compel Iran to
permanently abandon its outlaw activities.”In an earlier tweet, he stressed:
“On November 5, we will place tough sanctions on Iran’s ruling regime. Our
aim is to compel Iran to abandon its destructive activities. The sanctions
will target the regime—not the people, who have suffered the pain of their
government’s mismanagement, theft, and brutality.”Speaking to Fox News on
Sunday, he added that the sanctions “aimed at a single purpose -- denying
the world's largest state sponsor of terror the capacity to do things like
the things they've done in the past few weeks.”
In addition, he spoke of waivers being granted to eight countries to allow
them to continue to import Iranian oil. The waivers are temporary and these
countries “need a little bit more time to get to zero”.Pompeo maintained
that despite the waivers, "these sanctions have already had an enormous
impact." “We've already reduced Iranian crude oil experts by over a million
barrels per day. That number will fall farther,” he added. He rejected
criticism that Donald Trump’s administration was not hard enough on Tehran,
saying: “There are a lot of experts that said President Trump's policy
wouldn't have any impact because it was just the United States and other
countries weren't participating. And, in fact, we have built an enormous
coalition to keep this world safe and to deny Iran money.” “The financial
sanctions that are being put in place by the Treasury Department and over
600 designations of individuals and companies in Iran will have the intended
effect to alter the Iranian regime's behavior,” he continued. A number of
hawks in the Trump administration, as well as senior Republican officials,
have demanded that harsher sanctions be take against Tehran. Republican
senators Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz of Texas have have drafted
legislation that would require the Trump administration to demand that Iran
be suspended from the international bank transfer system (SWIFT). Iran is
already in the grip of an economic crisis. Its national currency, the rial,
now trades at 145,000 to one US dollar, down from when it traded 40,500 to
$1 a year ago. The economic chaos sparked mass anti-government protests at
the end of last year which resulted in nearly 5,000 reported arrests and at
least 25 people being killed. Sporadic demonstrations still continue. The
United States says the sanctions are not aimed at toppling the government,
but at persuading it to radically change its policies, including its support
for regional militant groups and its development of long-range ballistic
missiles.
Lieberman Thanks Trump as Iran Sanctions Take Effect
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 05/18/Israeli Defense Minister
Avigdor Lieberman welcomed U.S. sanctions that took effect Monday targeting
Iran's oil and financial sectors, calling it a "critical" blow to Tehran's
actions in the region. "President (Donald) Trump's bold decision is the
sea-change the Middle East has been waiting for," Lieberman said in a
statement. "In a single move, the United States is dealing a critical blow
to Iran's entrenchment in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq and Yemen. President
Trump, you've done it again! Thank you."Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu on Saturday also thanked Trump for the sanctions against his
country's main enemy. The measures described by Washington as "the toughest
sanctions ever" follow Trump's controversial decision in May to abandon the
multi-nation nuclear deal with Tehran. They aim to significantly reduce
Iran's oil exports -- which have already fallen by around one million
barrels a day since May -- and cut it off from international finance. Israel
had long opposed the Iran nuclear deal, saying it was too limited in scope
and timeframe. It also said the lifting of sanctions allowed Iran to finance
militant groups and its own military activity. Israel is particularly
concerned with Iran's involvement in neighboring Syria and has pledged to
keep it from entrenching itself militarily there. The other parties to the
nuclear deal -- Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia -- opposed the
U.S. move and say the accord is working as intended in keeping Iran from
obtaining nuclear weapons for now.
U.S. Vows 'Relentless' Sanctions as Iran Defiant
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 05/18/The United States vowed Monday
to be "relentless" in countering Iran as sweeping sanctions took effect, but
the Islamic republic defiantly promised to stand up to the "bullying" by
Washington. President Donald Trump's administration nonetheless issued eight
exemptions from its demand on all countries to stop buying Iranian oil, the
country's largest export, amid bitter international opposition to the
unilateral U.S. sanctions. Six months after Trump pulled out of an
international agreement on ending Tehran's nuclear program, Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo said the ultimate U.S. goal was for Iran to make a
"180-degree turn" and abandon its "revolutionary course." While stopping
short of urging regime change, he reiterated demands for Iran to end
policies rooted in the 1979 Islamic revolution including its support for
regional proxies such as the Lebanese militia Hezbollah and its development
of missiles. "We hope a new agreement with Iran is possible, but until Iran
makes changes in the 12 ways I listed in May, we will be relentless in
exerting pressure on the regime," Pompeo said. He said the sanctions --
which took effect on the 39th anniversary of Iranian zealots' seizure of the
U.S. embassy following the ouster of the pro-U.S. shah -- intended to
"starve the Iranian regime of the funds it uses to fund violent activity
throughout the Middle East and around the world."U.N. inspectors say Iran is
abiding by an agreement reached with Trump's predecessor Barack Obama to
draw down its nuclear program. That deal was backed by European powers,
Russia and China and sealed by a U.N. Security Council resolution. "I
announce that we will proudly bypass your illegal, unjust sanctions because
it's against international regulations," Iran's President Hassan Rouhani
said in a televised speech as the sanctions took effect. "We are in a
situation of economic war, confronting a bullying power. I don't think that
in the history of America, someone has entered the White House who is so
against law and international conventions," he added. In one of Tehran's
bazaars, there was anxiety over the future. "The shadow of the sanctions has
already affected the economy in a disastrous way, people's purchasing power
has plunged," said Ehsan Attar in his herbal remedy shop.
Act on your commitments
Rouhani said four countries had approached him during his visit to New York
for the U.N. General Assembly in September, offering to mediate with the
U.S. but he turned them down. "There is no need for mediation. There is no
need for all these messages. Act on your commitments, and we will sit and
talk," he said. But Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, in an interview
published Monday with USA Today, said Iran would consider fresh diplomacy if
there were a "different approach" by Washington. The latest tranche of U.S.
sanctions aims to significantly cut Iran's oil exports -- which have already
fallen by up to one million barrels a day since May -- and cut off its banks
from international finance. The Belgian-based SWIFT banking network, the
backbone for international monetary transfers, said Monday it had suspended
several Iranian banks from its service. The International Monetary Fund
forecasts that US sanctions will cause Iran's economy to contract 1.5
percent this year and 3.6 percent next year -- pain that Trump has boasted
about as he touts his record ahead of Tuesday's congressional elections.
Iran's economy was already suffering major structural problems -- including
widespread corruption, weak investment and a banking sector laden with toxic
assets -- before Trump walked out of the deal. Rouhani's plan since his
election in 2013 was to boost the economy by rebuilding ties with the world
and attracting billions of dollars in foreign investment -- a strategy that
now looks in tatters.
Eight exemptions to oil sanctions
The United States issued eight waivers to its ban on buying Iranian oil --
to China, India, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey.
Pompeo said that the eight had demonstrated that they were reducing
purchases of Iranian oil and that the United States recognized special
circumstances, as well as the need not to disrupt energy markets. One
notable exemption was Iraq. Had it been granted a waiver, analysts say it
would have been easier for Iran to mix its crude with production from its
neighbor to sell on international markets. The other parties to the nuclear
deal -- Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia -- have vehemently
opposed the U.S. move and vowed to keep alive the accord, technically known
as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). "We will do everything
necessary in the interests of preserving and expanding international trade,
economic and financial cooperation with Iran despite U.S. sanctions," said
Russia's foreign ministry. The only support for the U.S. position has come
from Iran's regional rivals, notably Saudi Arabia and Israel, whose prime
minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, hailed the start of sanctions as "a historic
day." Foreign companies and banks are largely unwilling to make enemies of
the U.S. Treasury, and most international firms that set up in Iran after
the 2015 deal have been forced to leave, including France's Total, Peugeot
and Renault, and Germany's Siemens. "Unfortunately, we were treated
dishonorably by both the American and Iranian governments," said Fereshteh
Safarnezhad, a 43-year-old teacher, on the streets of Tehran. "The Americans
never really committed to the deal and the Iranian government did not spend
the cash it got from the deal on the people."
Netanyahu Calls Start of New Iran Sanctions a 'Historic
Day'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 05/18/Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu on Monday called the start of new U.S. sanctions against his
country's main enemy Iran a "historic day" that will reduce Tehran's
"aggression" in the region. "Today is a historic day," Netanyahu told
lawmakers from his Likud party, according to his office. "Today is the day
the U.S. under President (Donald) Trump's leadership imposed extremely harsh
sanctions on Iran, the harshest sanctions imposed on Iran since the effort
to curb its aggression began."
Earlier Monday, Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman called the new
sanctions a "critical" blow to Iran's actions in the region. The measures
described by Washington as "the toughest sanctions ever" follow Trump's
controversial decision in May to abandon the multi-nation nuclear deal with
Tehran. They aim to significantly reduce Iran's oil exports -- which have
already fallen by around one million barrels a day since May -- and cut it
off from international finance. Israel had long opposed the Iran nuclear
deal, saying it was too limited in scope and timeframe. It also said the
lifting of sanctions allowed Iran to finance militant groups and its own
military activity. Israel is particularly concerned with Iran's involvement
in neighboring Syria and has pledged to keep it from entrenching itself
militarily there. The other parties to the nuclear deal -- Britain, France,
Germany, China and Russia -- opposed the U.S. move and say the accord is
working as intended in keeping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons for now.
Iran Revolutionary Guards Commemorate Anniversary of US
Hostage Crisis
London - Adil Al-Salmi /Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 4 November, 2018/A day
before US sanctions took effect against Tehran, the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards commemorated on Sunday the 39th anniversary of the US hostage crisis
in Tehran. Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of the Guards, addressed the crowd
from the grounds of the former embassy, now known as the "den of spies". He
said "economic warfare" was a final bid by Washington to overthrow Iran
after decades of failed attempts. "With God's help and the resistance and
perseverance of the pious and revolutionary people of Iran, this last weapon
of the enemy -- the economic war -- which is accompanied by America's
widespread media operation against the nation of Iran, will be defeated,"
Jafari said. "Never threaten Iran," he warned US President Donald Trump,
describing him as America's "strange president". “America has launched an
economic and psychological war as a last resort ... But America’s plots and
its plans for sanctions will be defeated through continued resistance,” said
Jafari. He described as “madness” any US attempt to change the Iranian
regime, adding that Washington was not seeking a military confrontation with
Iran because it fears Hezbollah and Tehran’s deterrent force. In addition,
he said that Iran scored a victory against the US in the latest Iraq
elections in an indirect reference to the election of a new president,
speaker and prime minister. He signaled that these central positions were
now within Iran’s influence.
On Washington’s goal to curb Iran’s influence in the Middle East, including
its role in Syria, he remarked that Syria could not achieve stability
without Tehran.
Guards deputy commander Hossein Salami threatened to target US interests “if
necessary”, saying that Tehran has the power to take the Middle East out of
American influence. He made light of the newly imposed US sanctions, asking:
“Has Washington curbed Iran and its forces’ influence in the region? Has it
managed to alter our political behavior through its economic embargo? Has it
convinced us to sit with it at the negotiations table again?” Iranians
chanting “Death to America” rallied to mark both the anniversary of the
seizure of the US Embassy during the 1979 Revolution and the re-imposition
of US sanctions on Iran’s key oil sector. Thousands of students in the
government-organized rally in the capital Tehran, broadcast live by state
television, burned the Stars and Stripes, an effigy of Uncle Sam and
pictures of Trump outside the leafy downtown compound that once housed the
US mission. Hardline students stormed the embassy on November 4, 1979 soon
after the fall of the US-backed Shah, and 52 Americans were held hostage
there for 444 days. The two countries have been enemies, on opposite sides
of Middle East conflict, ever since. Iranian state media said millions
turned out for rallies in most cities and towns around the country, swearing
allegiance to the clerical establishment. The Guards avoided parading
ballistic missiles during the rallies as was their habit. Images showed
plastic rockets in display instead of the actual ones.Iran is already in the
grip of an economic crisis. Its rial currency now trades at 145,000 to one
US dollar, down from when it traded 40,500 to $1 a year ago. The economic
chaos sparked mass anti-government protests at the end of last year which
resulted in nearly 5,000 reported arrests and at least 25 people being
killed. Sporadic demonstrations still continue. The restoration of US
sanctions on Monday targeting Iran’s oil sales and banking sectors is part
of a wider effort by Trump to force Tehran to halt its nuclear and ballistic
missile programs outright as well as support for proxy forces in conflicts
across the Middle East.
Israeli Minister in Oman to Attend Transportation
Conference
Muscat - Asharq al-Awsat/Monday, 5 November, 2018/Israeli Minister of
Transportation and Intelligence Yisrael Katz arrived Sunday to Oman on an
official visit to take part in an international transportation conference.
"This is a historical visit that will improve relations [between Israel and
Oman]," he said, adding that he intends to present and promote the mutual
initiative “Tracks for Regional Peace” to connect the Gulf states to Israel
and the Mediterranean sea. Katz noted that this will create an axis that
will bypass Iran, claiming that his visit is the beginning of "normalization
through strength," describing such a step as “important” and “doable."This
is the first time an Israeli minister has been formally invited to
participate in an international conference in Oman. The transportation
initiative is based on the planned extension of railway tracks in northern
Israel, which would link Haifa’s seaport to Jordan’s rail network, which in
turn would be linked to the Gulf. In October, Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu visited Muscat for a day on an “official diplomatic
visit”, during which he met with Sultan Qaboos bin Said. The trip was aimed
at reviving Palestinian-Israeli negotiations that have been frozen since
2014. Israeli reports revealed on Sunday that Netanyahu had met secretly
with Oman’s Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi in February, helping lay the
foundations for the premier’s visit to the Gulf sultanate. The meeting was
held on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference and put together by
Mossad head Yossi Cohen.
Israeli Forces Storm Headquarters of Ministry of
Jerusalem Affairs
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 November, 2018/The Palestinian
government warned from the escalation led by the Israeli government against
Palestinians, their territories, and properties. The government’s warning
followed the Israeli forces storming Sunday the Ministry of Jerusalem
Affairs, which spurred clashes. Palestinian government spokesman Youssef
Mahmoud called on Arab and Islamic governments to defend Jerusalem and
sacred places. He renewed demands that the international community defends
the laws it issues. Mahmoud said it was a very “dangerous escalation of the
occupation and a flagrant violation of all the international laws and
agreements.” He added that the occupation government bears full
responsibility for these continuous violations against Jerusalem, citizens
and Islamic and Christian sacred places. Israel targets Jerusalem District
Governor Adnan Ghaith through arresting him or hindering his work, accusing
him of performing official tasks of the authority in the city – a matter
that is prohibited by Israel. Israeli Minister of Public Security Gilad
Erdan said that he bans any activity of the Palestinian authority because
this violates the Israeli sovereignty. This is the second arrest of Ghaith
after being detained on Oct. 20. The Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
demanded an urgent international action to stop the ethnic purge in Aghwar,
east of occupied Jerusalem and Mount Hebron. The ministry said that the
occupation authorities have been launching since years an open-war against
the Palestinian existence in the regions classified as general. The ministry
demanded all parties to quickly act to provide the basics of surviving as
Palestinian citizens in Aghwar, the east of occupied Jerusalem and Mount
Hebron. It also called on local, regional and international organizations to
follow the occurrences in these three regions and archive them to disclose
the occupation violations of the international law.
US Patrols in Syria’s Kurdish Regions Near Turkey
Border
Al-Darbasiyah (Syria) - London /Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 November, 2018/US
forces on Sunday patrolled an area in northeastern Syria bordering Turkey
after renewed tensions between Ankara and Syrian Kurds, a spokesman and an
AFP reporter said. Three armored vehicles carrying soldiers wearing the US
flag on their uniform arrived in the Kurdish-held northeastern border town
of Al-Darbasiyah, the correspondent said. Turkey last week raised threats
against Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria, shelling their positions and
flagging a possible new offensive. The Kurds spearhead the Syrian Democratic
Forces alliance, backed by the US-led coalition, that has been fighting ISIS
in Syria. Coalition spokesman Sean Ryan said Sunday's patrol was the second
in a week, after a first one by US forces on Friday. "The US forces'
assurance patrols enable us to maintain safety and security in the region,"
he said, but are not carried out "on a regular basis". An SDF spokesman said
the US patrols, in coordination with the SDF, were directly linked to recent
tensions between the Kurds and Ankara. "They are not routine patrols. They
are directly linked to these threats. The objective is to call on Turkey to
stop its aggression," Mustefa Bali said. Sunday's patrols were headed
towards Ras al-Ain, around 50 kilometers to the west of Al-Darbasiyah along
the frontier, he said. The US State Department has said it had been in touch
with both the SDF and Turkey to push for de-escalation. Turkey accuses
Syria's Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) -- which form the backbone
of the SDF -- of being "terrorists". In what appeared to be an attempt by
Washington to appease Turkey, US and Turkish troops on Thursday launched
joint patrols on the outskirts of the northern city of Manbij. Although the
YPG claim to have pulled out of the city after the SDF seized it from ISIS
in 2016, Ankara has recently complained that the group still has a presence
there, repeatedly threatening military action. On Wednesday, Turkish
shelling of Kurdish positions in the Kobane sector of northern Syria killed
four fighters, according to Turkey's state-run Anadolu news agency. On
Tuesday, two days after another round of shelling of Kurdish posts in
northern Syria, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country had
completed preparations for a new operation to "destroy" Kurdish fighters.
Since 2016, Turkey has carried out two operations against Kurdish forces in
Syria, the last of which saw Ankara-backed Syrian opposition fighters take
the border city of Afrin in March.
Damascus Ready for 'Conditional Cooperation' with
Pedersen
Damascus - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 November, 2018/Syria said it was ready
to cooperate with new UN envoy, Geir Pedersen, as long as he avoids the
methods of his predecessor, pro-regime Al-Watan newspaper quoted a Syrian
official as saying on Sunday. “Syria will cooperate with the new UN envoy
Geir Pedersen provided he avoids the methods of his predecessor,” Deputy
Foreign Minister Faisal Al-Meqdad said, quoted by the local newspaper. It
would work with him if “he announces his support for the unity of Syria’s
land and people and does not side with the terrorists as his predecessor
did,” he added.
Damascus has long accused international envoy Staffan de Mistura, who
stepped down last month after four years of unsuccessful efforts to settle
the Syrian conflict, of “bias” in dealing with the Syrian crisis. This is
the first official comment from the Syrian government after the United
Nations on Tuesday named the Norwegian diplomat, who takes office at the end
of November, to be the fourth envoy charged with finding a peaceful solution
to the conflict since 2011. The Syrian opposition has no hopes towards
Pedersen’s appointment. A spokesman for the Syrian negotiating body
representing a wide spectrum of the opposition forces, Yehya al-Aridi, told
AFP a few days ago that the change of envoys would have little impact on the
fate of his country in the absence of international will and consensus on a
political road map.
But he explained that Pedersen had “experience stretching from Iraq to
Lebanon and the United Nations.”“We hope he will be more decisive, and
immediately call things by their names. Syria’s file does not need any more
flattery,” he stated. Pedersen took part in the 1993 Norwegian team in the
secret negotiations that led to the signing of the Oslo Accords between
Israel and the Palestinians. He spent many years representing his country
with the Palestinian Authority. He is currently Norway’s ambassador to China
and has been ambassador to the United Nations.
Putin’s Special Envoy, Syria’s Assad Discuss Formation
of Constitutional Committee
Damascus, London – Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 November, 2018/Russian
President's Special Envoy on Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev discussed Sunday
with Syria's Head of regime Bashar al-Assad the results of the recent
Istanbul summit on Syria which called for the formation of the
constitutional committee. Lavrentiev is expected to arrive in Tehran today
to discuss with officials the results of the summit as well. Media office of
the Syrian presidency announced that Assad met Lavrentiev and the
accompanying delegation in Damascus, during which the Russian officials
informed Assad of the development at the quartet summit that took place on
October 27. The presidency said in a statement that Assad discussed with the
Russian envoy “forming the committee to discuss the current constitution.”
They agreed "to continue joint Syrian-Russian work towards removing the
obstacles still in the way of forming this committee", it said. The Russian
envoy also discussed with Assad efforts exerted by Moscow with regional and
international parties to remove the obstacles to progress on finding a
political solution for Syria.
Last week, an unprecedented quartet summit on Syria was held in Istanbul
between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russian President Vladimir
Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The summit called for the committee to be formed by the end of the year to
discuss a post-war constitution, “paving the way for free and fair
elections” in the war-torn country.
The push for a political solution to end the Syrian conflict is evident from
the invitation to form the constitutional committee, which resulted from the
intra-Syrian dialogue in Sochi last January. UN envoy to Syria, Staffan de
Mistura, was tasked to form the committee to include 150 members and meet in
Geneva. Both the regime and the opposition submitted a list of 50
representatives, after de Mistura's efforts to submit a list of 50 names
have failed, knowing that the Envoy is short time after he announced he
would step down at the end of the month. Following a meeting in Damascus
with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moalem on October 24, de Mistura told the
Security Council in a televised briefing that Moalem strongly underlined
principles of sovereignty and “non-interference in internal affairs of UN
member states.”
The Government had already declined the UN offers to engage it directly on
the constitutional committee and its follow-up, added the Envoy, indicating
that: “Minister Moalem stated that the Astana guarantors had rejected the
initial UN proposal on a third list.”
Nine rounds of indirect talks sponsored by the United Nations have failed
since 2016, as both Moscow and Ankara continue their efforts to end the war,
although a political settlement is still far from being reached. Deputy
commander-in-chief of Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General
Hossein Salami, indicated that Iranian forces have no plans to stay in Syria
on the long run. "The presence of Iran in Syria was at the request of the
Syrian government, and we have no long-term plan to remain in this country,"
Salami was quoted by Iran's Fars news agency on Sunday. He also stressed
that there are no disagreements with Russian officials in Syria, and
described media reports promoting that as fabrications. Fars also quoted
Russian Ambassador to Tehran Levan Dzhagaryan confirming that Putin’s Envoy
will visit Tehran on Monday. Lavrentyev plans to hold talks with Iran's
Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani on the latest
developments in the crisis. Lavrentyev visited Tehran last July and met with
Assistant Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council for
Foreign Policy and International Security Saeed Ayroani.
Egypt: ISIS Religious Edicts Provoke Killing Christians
Cairo - Waleed Abdul-Rahman/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 November, 2018/A study
conducted by the Global Fatwa Index showed that 100 percent of the religious
edicts, or fatwas, issued by ISIS against Christians provoke violence
against them.
Around 30 percent of ISIS religious edicts target Christians, revealed the
study issued by the Global Fatwa Index, which is affiliated with Dar al-Ifta
al-Misriyyah. ISIS continuously issues fatwas that urge killing Christians,
fighting them and demolishing their churches. The Global Fatwa Index
considered that religious edicts are a key weapon for terrorist groups which
they use against anyone who oppose their views and creed. For these groups,
those fatwas justify the killing of those who do not follow them, whether
they are Christians or Muslims. Sixty percent of the religious directives
issued against Christians, globally, were by unofficial figures and parties.
Ninety-five percent of them were illegal because they were issued by
unauthorized parties that do not have a disciplined religious methodology.
Major edicts that led to conflicts and strife are: forbidding accepting
gifts from Christians on their holidays, prohibiting congratulating them on
these occasions and banning giving Christians a ride to church. The study
recommended expanding doctrinal discipline and establishing media channels
to promote Quranic verses addressing non-Muslims. It also advised correcting
the misconceptions of jihad and encouraging coexistence between Muslims and
other communities.
Egypt President Vows to Guarantee Freedom of Worship
Cairo - Mohammed Nabil Helmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 November,
2018/Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi pledged to guarantee freedom of
religion and belief in the country, two days after gunmen opened fire on a
bus carrying Coptic Christians on their way back from visiting a monastery
in Minya, leaving seven dead and at least 10 injured. Sisi was speaking at
an event during the second day of the World Youth Forum, held in Sharm
El-Sheikh, South Sinai. It was attended by 5,000 participants of different
nationalities, as well as a number of international officials and prominent
Egyptian officials.
Addressing the audience, Sisi stated that in Egypt there was no authority
that rules places of worship, except for mosques, adding that everyone has
the right to worship. Sisi explained that if Egypt had other religions, the
state would build places of worship for them. “The country has been keen on
building churches in new and old cities, and even [places of worship] for
other religions, for Jewish citizens,” he said, adding: “A citizen is free
to worship or not worship; everyone is free, and the state does not
interfere in this.” The president also highlighted the importance of
“reforming religious discourse” initiative, which he said “is one of the
most important demands of Egypt and the world."
Speaking at another event, on "Rebuilding societies and States in the
context of post-conflict," Sisi said that the course of reform in Egypt "is
a national responsibility and this has been proven through the Egyptian
experience." He said that countries have had to pay a great humanitarian,
financial and moral cost due to the crises and chaos they have endured. He
continued: "The people who demanded change and acted in good faith aiming to
achieve reform in their country, lost more due to chaos than it would have
lost if the situation in their country remained unchanged."Meanwhile,
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, reiterated that Cairo’s foreign
policy in the field of building and sustaining peace is based on the concept
of “non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries” and
promoting political solutions to resolve crises, in accordance with
international resolutions and agreements. The meeting was also attended by
UN Special Envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura, Special Representative of UN
Sec-Gen (SRSG) to Libya, Ghassan Salame, Director of the Geneva Center for
Security Policy Christian Dussey, and Lebanese State Minister for
Presidential Affairs Pierre Raffoul. A session on “Water security in the
wake of climate change" recommended integrating and motivating young people
to face the challenges of climate change and providing networks for
integration and effective communication with society and governments. Sisi
pointing out that corruption is one of the negative impressions taken of
Africa, specifically regarding weak anti-corruption measures, if there are
procedures at all. Sisi expressed Cairo's interest in achieving stability in
Europe “because the common interest is our [Egypt and Europe's] stability
and our security.”The “Model Arab African Summit” was also discussed in the
forum by a number of dignitaries, including the representative of Eritrea,
who praised the "Peace Agreement with Ethiopia" and the "rapid response from
Saudi Arabia and the UAE to achieve peace.”
Khashoggi Killing: Sons Ask Saudis to Return His Body
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 05/18/The sons of murdered journalist
Jamal Khashoggi have asked Saudi authorities to return the body of their
father so the family can properly grieve, they told CNN in an interview
aired Sunday. Khashoggi was killed inside the kingdom's consulate in
Istanbul by a team sent from Riyadh on October 2, a murder Turkey's
president said was ordered from "the highest levels" of Saudi Arabia's
government. "I really hope that whatever happened wasn't painful for him, or
it was quick. Or he had a peaceful death," Abdullah Khashoggi told the US
network during the interview in Washington. His brother Salah said "all what
we want right now is to bury him in Al Baqi in Medina with the rest of his
family," referencing a cemetery in Saudi Arabia. "I talked about that with
the Saudi authorities and I just hope that it happens soon." Turkey's chief
prosecutor said recently that Khashoggi was strangled as soon as he entered
the consulate and also confirmed the body was dismembered. Yasin Aktay, an
advisor to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, hinted in an article
published on Friday that the body may even have been destroyed in acid.
Khashoggi's killing has provoked widespread outrage and sharp criticism from
Washington, usually the staunchest of allies. Khashoggi's sons voiced worry
that the work of their father, a columnist for The Washington Post, was
being distorted for political reasons.
"I see a lot of people coming out right now and trying to claim his legacy
and unfortunately some of them are using that in a political way that we
totally don't agree with," Salah told CNN. "My fear is that it's being over
politicized." "Jamal was never a dissident. He believed in the monarchy,
that it is the thing that is keeping the country together."The brothers said
they have relied primarily on news reports to piece together an
understanding of their father's death. "There's a lot of ups and downs....
We're trying to get the story -- bits and pieces of the story to complete
the whole picture," Abdullah said. "It's confusing and difficult.""It's not
a normal situation and not a normal death." Salah emphasized that "the King
has stressed that everybody will be brought to justice. And I have faith in
that."The murdered journalist's fiancee meanwhile has called on US President
Donald Trump to back Turkey's efforts to probe the death.
Palestinians in
Syria's Yarmuk Yearn for Outside Help
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 05/18/After years of fighting,
crippling siege and bombardment, what was once the Palestinian diaspora's
largest urban settlement in southern Damascus has been reduced to a sea of
debris. Former residents of the Palestinian camp of Yarmuk are desperately
counting on assistance from abroad to help raise the once-bustling
neighborhood back out of the rubble. "We've lived through a terrifying
nightmare," said 46-year-old Amina, one of the camp's very few remaining
residents. It "didn't kill us, but now we need someone to rebuild the houses
so our people and neighbors can return," she said, wearing a long black robe
and white headscarf. In May this year, Syrian government and allied forces
retook the neighborhood, which had for years been the Islamic State jihadist
group's only bastion in the capital. Five months on, it is a ghost town
where bulldozers have carved wide passages through a sprawling jumble of
concrete debris and mangled steel rods. Foreign "countries need to help us
because we're like a cripple who needs a crutch to walk again," Amina said.
Founded in 1957 with tents for Palestinians forced to leave their homes by
the establishment of Israel, Yarmuk grew into a sprawling neighborhood of
permanent structures that became home to 160,000 Palestinians, as well as
Syrians. In 2012, around 140,000 residents fled clashes, leaving the rest to
face severe food shortages under government siege.And three years later, IS
jihadists entered the area, bringing further suffering to remaining
residents.
- Salvaged playground -
Despite all this, dozens of families including Amina's remained inside the
camp, and others have since trickled back in. A few children snake between
the charred carcasses of buses and cars lining a street on their way to a
school outside the camp. In Amina's street, one of the only roads in Yarmuk
still inhabited, a recently returned neighbor has cobbled together a
playground. Abu Bilal has brought together swings, a small merry-go-round
and a slide in an alley adorned with portraits of President Bashar al-Assad
and late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. "I created this space so the
neighborhood’s children could be happy," said the 54-year-old, who now works
sweeping streets recently cleared of rubble. "What I do is not enough for
people to come back, but I hope donor countries" will help, he said. In
September, bulldozers started to clear Yarmuk's main roads of rubble, with
funding from the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and are expected
to take another two months to finish clearing side streets. "Rebuilding
requires (foreign) countries and huge capital," said Palestinian engineer
Mahmud Khaled, a member of a committee overseeing the rubble clearing. But
Palestinian and U.N. officials say the camp's future is still unclear, as
Damascus has not yet given a green light for any re-building or officially
allowed residents to return.
- 'Future of the camp'? -
The U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, says its 23 premises in the
camp including 16 schools are damaged, but it will not fix any if the
government does not officially allow residents to return. "What is the
future of the camp? Will the government allow people to go back or not?"
UNRWA's head in Syria, Mohammed Abdi Adar, said. "Before we can do anything,
we must get a clear answer," he told AFP. Even then finding funding would be
tough, said the official, whose agency has been facing a funding crisis
since the United States cut vital support. "Many donors are saying they will
not support the reconstruction in Syria," Abdi Adar said, though he stressed
the aim for UNRWA was simply to re-establish services. Syria's war has
killed more than 360,000 people, displaced millions and ravaged large parts
of the country since it started in 2011. Regime ally Moscow has called for
assistance in rebuilding Syria so millions of refugees can return. In July,
the government tasked the ministry of works to draw up new plans for Yarmuk,
as well as other Damascus suburbs retaken from rebels and jihadists,
sparking fears that the camp could fall under a controversial new law for
redevelopment. Under this law, if their land is part of a new development,
owners inevitably lose their property but can apply for compensation if they
can prove ownership. Individual Palestinians and Syrians own property in 80
percent of the Yarmuk camp, while the remainder is owned by the Syrian state
and managed by its authority for Palestinian affairs.
For now, Palestinian officials say the government has assured them that
Yarmuk is under no threat. They are pushing for a 2004 plan to be followed
for reconstruction.
Jerusalem’s Catholic
leaders seek repeal of Israel’s Jewish nation-state law
AFP, Jerusalem/Monday, 05 November 2018/Senior Catholic clerics in Jerusalem
called Sunday for Israel to repeal a controversial law giving Jews a
“unique” right to self-determination in the country.“We must draw the
attention of the authorities to a simple fact,” bishops and archbishops of
the Roman Catholic, Syrian Catholic, Armenian Catholic and Greek Melkite
churches said in a joint statement. “Our faithful, the Christians, our
fellow citizens, Muslim, Druze and Baha’i, all of us who are Arabs, are no
less citizens of this country than our Jewish brothers and sisters.”The
nation-state act was passed by parliament in July and forms part of Israel’s
basic laws- a de facto constitution. It speaks of Israel as the historic
homeland of the Jews and demotes Arabic from its former status as an
official language. Because it omits any reference to equality or the
country’s democratic nature, Israeli Arabs say it will legalize
discrimination. There were widespread Arab protests after it passed into law
and some Jewish politicians said it should be amended. President Reuven
Rivlin said the act “in its current version is bad for the state of Israel
and bad for the Jews”. Arabs account for some 17.5 percent of Israel’s
nearly nine million population. “Christians, Muslims, Druze, Baha’i and Jews
demand to be treated as equal citizens,” said the letter which was also
signed by the Maronite archbishop of Cyprus and the Greek Melkite archbishop
of Petra, in Jordan. “We, as the religious leaders of the Catholic Churches,
call on the authorities to rescind this basic law and assure one and all
that the state of Israel seeks to promote and protect the welfare and the
safety of all its citizens.”
The Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources published on
November 05-06/18
Asia Bibi: Pakistan's
Judicial Betrayal
القضاء الباكستاني يخون المسيحية اسيا بيبي بعد تبرئتها من تهمة التجديف
الباطلة
Giulio Meotti//Gatestone
Institute/November 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68681/giulio-meotti-gatestone-institute-asia-bibi-pakistans-judicial-betrayal-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d8%b6%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%83%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d9%8a%d8%ae%d9%88%d9%86/
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13250/asia-bibi-pakistan-betrayal
"I am requesting the president of the United States, Donald
Trump, to help us exit from Pakistan." — Ashiq Masih, Asia Bibi's husband.
"Placing Asia Bibi on the ECL [no-fly list] is like signing her death
warrant." — Wilson Chowdhry, Chairman of the British Pakistani Christian
Association.
Blasphemy laws in Pakistan "have been used to target religious minorities,
pursue personal vendettas, and carry out vigilante violence. On the basis of
little or no evidence, the accused will struggle to establish their
innocence while angry and violent mobs seek to intimidate the police,
witnesses, prosecutors, lawyers and judges." — Amnesty International.
Pictured: Ashiq Masih, the husband of Asia Bibi, together with their
daughter Eisham Ashiq, campaigning for Asia's release in 2015. (Image
source: HazteOir/Flickr)
The joy over the acquittal of Asia Bibi lasted barely 24 hours. The
Christian mother of five from Pakistan was forced to spend eight years in
prison, much of the time on death row, ostensibly for "blasphemy," before
the Supreme Court cleared her of any offense.
"I can't believe what I am hearing, will I go out now? Will they let me out,
really?", Asia Bibi said by phone after the historic sentence, according to
AFP news agency.
Unfortunately, massive street protests by extremist Muslims immediately
erupted to pressure the government to delay her release. The phone network
in some areas was suspended for reasons of "security". Rioting caused
schools in Islamabad, Punjab and Kashmir to close. Roads were blocked,
paralyzing parts of Islamabad, Lahore and other cities. Christian schools
warned parents to come and get their children for fear of violence. Churches
were put on high alert. Protesters hold placards that read: "Hang Asia Bibi".
"There will be a war if they send Asia out of country," warned Khadim
Hussain Rizvi, leader of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), an Islamist party
that supports blasphemy laws.
Threats by vigilante mobs who called for her death and warned of national
unrest evidently worked. Pakistan's government, after saying it would begin
the process of preventing Asia Bibi from leaving the country, has now been
accused of signing her "death warrant".
The government apparently succumbed to pressure and signed an agreement
giving in to many of the demands of Tehreek-e-Labbaik. Pakistan's government
also promised not to oppose a legal petition to reverse Asia Bibi's release,
and to put her name on the "exit control list" (ELC), a no-fly list, to
prevent her from leaving the country.
"Placing Asia Bibi on the ECL is like signing her death warrant", said
Wilson Chowdhry of the British Pakistani Christian Association.
The agreement," tweeted analyst Mosharraf Zaidi, "was a "historic
capitulation".
"It's almost certain that Bibi will not be able to live in the country after
her acquittal", the famous Pakistani novelist Mohammed Hanif wrote in The
New York Times.
"[B]arring her from leaving the country grants tacit permission to
Tehreek-i-Labaik to hunt her down and murder her," wrote Robert Spencer, a
human rights activist and author of 18 books that include New York Times
bestsellers.
Asia Bibi's husband, Ashiq Masih, just applied for asylum in the United
States, Canada and England. "I am requesting the Prime Minister of the UK
help us and as far as possible grant us freedom", he said. "I am requesting
the president of the United States, Donald Trump, to help us exit from
Pakistan", he added. That is why the pact between the Islamists and the
government is seen as a betrayal. "The agreement has sent a shiver down my
spine", Masih said. "The current situation is very dangerous for us. We have
no security and are hiding here and there, frequently changing our
location".
Meanwhile, Asia Bibi's fate remains "uncertain".
Pakistan, country of 197 million people, armed with nuclear warheads, and an
ally of the West with 97% of its population Muslim, has gone mad over the
just acquittal of this Christian woman. Not only has the Pakistani judicial
system tortured her for eight years by segregating her alone in a windowless
cell. Now that Asia Bibi has been cleared, there are untold thousands ready
to murder her.
The Islamists seem to think that what is at stake in the acquittal of Asia
Bibi is a more open Pakistan, a defeat for sharia law and some hope for the
few persecuted Christians there. Her ordeal shows clearly how the rule of
law has broken down in Pakistan. According to Amnesty International:
"Pakistan's blasphemy laws are overbroad, vague and coercive. They have been
used to target religious minorities, pursue personal vendettas, and carry
out vigilante violence. On the basis of little or no evidence, the accused
will struggle to establish their innocence while angry and violent mobs seek
to intimidate the police, witnesses, prosecutors, lawyers and judges."
Recent attacks against Pakistani Christians included an attack on a church
in Quetta in December 2017 that killed 9 people; a suicide attack targeting
Christians celebrating Easter in March 2016 at a Lahore playground and which
left 70 dead; two bomb blasts at churches in Lahore in March 2015 that
killed 14; a twin suicide bomb attack at a Peshawar church in 2013 which
left around 80 dead, and nearly 40 houses and a church burned by a mob in
2009, in the town of Gojra in Punjab, with eight people burned alive. Last
March, a Pakistani court acquitted 20 people of being part of a mob that
burned alive a Christian couple who had been falsely accused of "blasphemy".
The Christian couple were tortured and their bodies incinerated in a brick
kiln.
"The only punishment for a blasphemer is beheading", extremist Muslims
chanted in the streets of Pakistan after Asia Bibi's acquittal. Her lawyer,
Saif Mulook, already fled the country in fear of his life, but stated that
the risks were worth the reward. "I think it's better to die as a brave and
strong man than to die as a mouse and fearful person" he said.
The Muslim judges who acquitted Asia Bibi, Supreme Court President Mian
Saqib Nasir and Judge Asif Khosa, have also received death threats. They
were doubtless aware of the potential danger to their lives, but bravely
went ahead and took the risk of becoming targets of the vigilante groups.
"They all three deserve to be killed," an Islamist leader, Muhammad Afzal
Qadri, told a protest in Lahore. "Either their security should kill them,
their driver kill them, or their cook kill them... Whoever, who has got any
access to them, kill them before the evening".
Every day, Asia Bibi risks being murdered by these extremists. Prison
officials revealed that even last month, before her acquittal, two inmates
were arrested for planning to strangle her to death. Since 1990, 62 people
have been killed in Pakistan after being accused of "blasphemy".
Salman Taseer, a brave Muslim who was governor of Pakistan's Punjab
province, paid with his life just for expressing support for Asia; he was
murdered by his own bodyguard, who said "he did this because Mr Taseer
recently defended the proposed amendments to the blasphemy law." Malik
Mumtaz Qadri, Taseer's murderer, who was later executed for the crime,
became a hero, a "martyr", in Pakistan. A mosque was named after him, people
came with their children to see him in jail and he released CDs of himself
singing.
If Asia Bibi were to be murdered, it would be a gigantic defeat for any kind
of judicial process and a gigantic victory against Christians -- comparable
to their having been expelled Christians from their heartland in Iraq.
At this point, one can only fear for Asia Bibi, as well as other Christians
in South Asia. In the West, there seem only to be yawns about her being
hunted. Nearly a week of violent protests and threats against her life has
not moved the European public to take to the streets to insist on her
freedom. No resolution has come from the otherwise vocal UN Human Rights
Council in Geneva. No pressure has been placed on Pakistan to assure her
immediate and safe release. No conferences have been convened by EU
officials in Brussels or Strasbourg.
European and Western governments should be doing do whatever they can to
save her. Offer her honorary citizenship, as the city of Paris did in 2015.
Shield her in a foreign embassy in Pakistan. Above all, provide asylum in a
Western democracy.
During the last few years, Pakistan has been at the center of many Islamist
attempts to curb freedom of speech in the West. Islamist hardliners rioted
when the Danish newspaper Jyllands Posten published cartoons of Mohammad.
Geert Wilders last August cancelled a Mohammed cartoon contest after
large-scale protests in Pakistan. After the massacre at the offices of the
French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, violent riots took place in
Pakistan. A Pakistani minister offered a $100,000 bounty to anyone who
killed the man who made the film "Innocence of Muslims". The word
"blasphemy", hanging over Asia Bibi's head, is the same used by extremist
Muslims to target the West.
The judges, in their acquittal of Asia Bibi, said: "She appears to be a
person, in the words of Shakespeare's King Lear, 'more sinned against than
sinning'".
Will the West stand and help this persecuted Christian? She is us.
*Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and
author.
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here
do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone
Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be
reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of
Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13250/asia-bibi-pakistan-betrayal
**Enclosed picture: Ashiq Masih, the husband of Asia Bibi, together with
their daughter Eisham Ashiq, campaigning for Asia's release in 2015. (Image
source: HazteOir/Flickr)
Trump’s Iran Oil Sanctions Aren’t Living Up to the Hype
Julian Lee/Bloomberg/November 05/18
US sanctions designed to push Iran’s oil exports to zero come into force at
midnight, but the hard line initially signaled by President Donald Trump is
softening as the deadline approaches. With countries that have already cut
their purchases to zero now being granted waivers to buy Iran’s oil, the
country’s exports may well go up, not down, in November. These were billed
as the “strongest sanctions in history,” intended to prevent Iran from
exporting any oil at all. But the reality hasn’t quite lived up to the hype:
In the six months before they fully took effect, the impact of the Trump
sanctions looks remarkably similar to those of his predecessor in 2012.
Not So Tough
So far, the impact of Trump's sanctions on Iran's oil has been no stronger
than Obama's
With the November deadline looming, it became clear that buyers which agreed
to reduce their purchases of Iranian oil might be able secure waivers from
the sanctions. Back in August, Trump’s national security adviser, John
Bolton, said these would be “few and far between.” This week, it emerged
that the US has agreed to let eight countries keep buying Iranian oil.
Details of the deal are sketchy, although Secretary of State Michael Pompeo
has promised they will be revealed on Monday. The eight include China and
India, the biggest buyers of Iran’s oil, as well as other key US allies in
Asia, Japan and South Korea. Turkey will also be permitted to continue
buying, but the softening doesn’t extend to Europe. It isn’t yet clear how
frequently the waivers will need to be re-validated, or by how much buyers
will need to reduce their purchases to avoid penalties.
Under President Barack Obama, waivers lasted for six months and were renewed
if countries had cut purchases by about 20 percent during that period. The
conditions are expected to be at least as tough under Trump.
Condensate Exports
One big difference from the Obama-era curbs is that the Trump sanctions
cover exports of condensates, a light form of oil extracted from gas fields.
These have become more important to Iran as gas extraction has increased
from the South Pars field that it shares with Qatar. But exports are
expected to dwindle again as processing increases at a new refinery designed
to process the liquids for domestic use.
Most buyers of Iran’s oil have taken a cautious approach since May. France
and South Korea both halted purchases in June. Spain and Japan followed in
September. Turkey has cut its purchases by about half compared with the
previous summer, while Italy and Greece — the other significant EU buyers of
Iranian oil — have made similar cuts. After a jump in the early summer,
exports to India have also fallen. China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil,
has yet to cut purchases, although the government has told at least two
state oil companies to avoid purchasing from the country.
Trump’s selective waivers are likely to have the perverse impact of allowing
processors in South Korea and Japan to resume buying limited volumes from
Iran in November. This could easily amount to as much as 300,000 barrels a
day, given that their combined purchases a year ago were almost twice that
much. The Chinese state-owned companies are also likely to return to the
market. The rebound will be partly offset by a further drop in European
purchases, but these amounted to less than 100,000 barrels a day last month.
To be sure, Iran will only have restricted access to the money generated
from these sales: Payments will have to be held in escrow accounts in the
purchasing countries. But an increase in Iran’s oil exports in the first
month of sanctions isn’t exactly the outcome Trump will have been hoping
for.
Trump Bank Sanctions Will Hit Iran Where it Hurts
Eli Lake/Bloomberg View/November 05/18
For the last month, it looked as though President Donald Trump’s campaign of
maximum pressure against Iran would include a loophole.
Sanctions on Iran’s banks, oil exports, ships and ports, lifted in 2015 as
part of a nuclear weapons agreement that Trump exited in May, will be
reimposed on Monday. But it was not clear until Friday whether those banks
would be allowed to participate in the Society for Worldwide Interbank
Financial Telecommunication, or Swift. That is the system that allows the
world’s banks to communicate with one another, making global transactions
possible.
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin ended the suspense. “We have advised Swift
that it must disconnect any Iranian financial institution that we designate
as soon as technologically feasible to avoid sanctions exposure,” he told
reporters on a conference call.
Swift is a big deal. Isolating Iran from it compounds its financial crisis.
Even if companies were willing to risk being cut off from the US economy to
purchase Iranian oil, it will be almost impossible for Iran to receive the
payments if its banks aren’t part of Swift.
So it’s not surprising that Swift was at the center of a policy fight within
the Trump administration and Congress. On one side were the Treasury
Department and the State Department. They worried that a full Swift cutoff
would strain relations with allies in Europe who have been trying to keep
Iran inside the nuclear deal along with Russia and China.
On the other side was National Security Adviser John Bolton and hawks in
Congress who feared that Iranian access to Swift would be a lifeline to
evade sanctions and wait until a friendlier US administration took power.
European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has discussed plans
for creating a policy vehicle that would shield European concerns from US
sanctions. Such a mechanism would rely on Iranian access to Swift.
Administration and congressional sources tell me that the decision to
announce the Swift decision was made on Thursday evening. Most Iran
policy-watchers then were expecting the Trump administration to punt.
Politico reported on Thursday evening that Senator Ted Cruz of Texas was
preparing legislation to force the Swift cutoff.
Mnuchin himself was trying to thread a needle by not making it appear that
the US was dictating which banks Swift needed to blacklist, according to
these sources. That said, Mnuchin also told reporters that the US could
impose sanctions on Swift itself.
In the end, the Swift decision represented a compromise. Mnuchin said that
some Iranian financial institutions that were not sanctioned could remain on
Swift, but only to conduct transactions involving food and medicine.
Nonetheless, the Iran hawks came out on top.
“It would be better if all Iranian financial institutions were disconnected
from Swift,” said Richard Goldberg, a former Senate Republican staff member
who helped design the Iran sanctions in the early 2000s. “But this is a
whole lot better than letting all Iranian banks remain on Swift.”
Goldberg told me that the Treasury will have to watch the humanitarian
exemption for Swift closely. In one of the biggest sanctions-evasion schemes
in history, a Turkish bank funneled up to $100 billion, by some estimates,
into Iran’s coffers in 2013 and 2014, largely under the guise of
humanitarian transactions.
Mark Dubowitz, chief executive officer of the Foundation for the Defense of
Democracies and a driving force in the Iran sanctions debate for the last
decade, told me that he, too, was pleased with the announcement on Swift.
He said that it dealt both a material and psychological blow to the Iranian
regime because isolation from the world’s financial system makes it more
toxic to investors and its own population. But Dubowitz also said that he
supported the exemption for humanitarian transactions. “I expect the
humanitarian channel to be used effectively by Secretary Pompeo to put the
regime on the defensive over food and medicine,” he said.
The ball is now in Iran’s court. Since the US pulled out of the nuclear deal
in May, its leaders have warned that they will resume the industrial
production of nuclear fuel that was largely suspended after the pact’s
implementation in 2016. We will find out soon if expulsion from Swift is
enough to make the regime follow through on that threat.
Iran and The Winds of Trump
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/November 05/18
Donald Trump is demanding the Iranian regime to do what it is unable to
achieve or to respond to. He demands a final divorce from the nuclear dream,
which some hawks consider an “insurance policy” against US surprises.
He also requests that the revolution be forced to retire under a state that
maintains its army and “guards” within its borders, and avoids infiltrating
into the maps of others, destabilizing them and encircling them with
rockets. He demands that Iran complies with the conditions of a natural
state, which does not give itself the right to use oil revenues and militias
to restructure the territory according to its plans, and to keep a firm grip
on the decisions of regional capitals.
Those familiar with the Iranian regime say that igniting the revolution is
one of the conditions of life of this system. Refraining from “exporting the
revolution” undermines the entire project and puts the system under the test
of the country’s economic figures, which are not encouraging at all. This is
how a new chapter begins today in the four-decade US-Iranian confrontation.
A political, diplomatic and economic confrontation, interspersed with some
security incidents, but without sliding into a broad and direct military
battle. Some believe that the new chapter may be the most difficult, and its
outcome will determine Iran’s location on the regional map, and the size of
its role.
US sanctions, which came into force at dawn this morning, target the vital
oil and banking sectors. Analysts agree that the sanctions will cause great
damage to the Iranian economy, despite Iranian ingenuity in circumventing
the sanctions. There is no exaggeration when saying that regional countries
are fully concerned about the new chapter of confrontation. Tehran is deeply
involved in the region’s conflicts and for decades has been running a
large-scale coup against their previous balances and traditional roles.
On the eve of the new chapter, exchanged messages were blunt and heated.
President Trump clearly said that the “objective is to force the regime into
a clear choice… Either abandon its destructive behavior or continue down the
path toward economic disaster.” He also called on the regime to abandon its
nuclear ambitions, change its behavior, respect the rights of its people and
return in good faith to the negotiating table.
Through multiple statements by its officials, the US Administration drew the
features of its orientation, and stressed that the goal was to change Iran’s
behavior, not change its regime, and that the door was open to return to the
negotiating table, if Tehran decides to seriously reconsider its conduct and
ambitions.
On the other side, messages were also clear. Thousands of Iranians took to
the streets of Tehran, recalling what happened on November 4, 1979. On that
day, demonstrators stormed into the US embassy in Tehran. For over 444 days,
angry students detained 52 Americans. The purpose was to humiliate the
“Great Satan” and to suggest that America itself was taken into small cages
like the hostages of its embassy. Iranians were loudly chanting: “Death to
America.” For decades, those slogans have been repeated. It is clear,
however, that America has not died, and the evidence is that it is launching
a new round of unprecedented sanctions against the Iranian regime.
As part of the mobilization efforts to confront the new phase, IRGC leaders
have been insistent on the struggle. Spiritual leader Ali Khamenei declared
that Trump “disgraced the rest of the US prestige and liberal democracy.”
Before his election as president, Trump considered the nuclear deal with
Iran a “disaster”, noting that it gave the regime a certificate of good
conduct without changing its behavior. He said that the deal allowed Tehran
to use its financial and diplomatic revenues to maintain its ballistic
program and its destabilizing policy aimed at changing systems of countries
and the identities of cities.
There were those who believed that Trump would hint at abandoning the
agreement but would not execute his threat, especially as the other two
signatories protested his move. But this is Trump. It is hard to predict how
far he would go with a file or another.
The new chapter of US sanctions begins at a time when the difficulties of
the Iranian economy are no longer concealed. There have been clear
indications in the past months: the depreciation of the riyal and rising
inflation and unemployment. The Iranian protests also expressed a popular
outrage that was manifested in the strikes of truck drivers and teachers.
Moreover, the Iranian ordinary people feel that they have to prepare for
more difficult days that require them to further tighten the belt.
In contrast, Iranian authorities have little choice. It is clear that they
are trying to lure a stronger or clearer European position. Nothing suggests
that Europe can play an exceptional role in this context. The “financial
mechanism” that has been discussed will not work before months, and its
results may be limited. Major European companies prefer safety; and it is
difficult to choose Iranian markets, if it means losing the US markets.
Europe is not living its best days. Britain continues to prepare divorce
proceedings. The rebellion against the spirit of the European Union is
spreading. Angela Merkel is not willing to seek a new mandate, and there are
those who expect Germany to witness some political instability.
Iran is betting on time. It may be betting on its ability to wait for the
end of Trump’s term. It is also counting on European voices that believe
that sanctions are affecting the people, and not this type of regime… and
that the reformist movement in Iran will be the first victim of any new
sanctions that the regime will consider as a blockade on the country and not
against it.
In light of the North Korean precedent, Trump dreams that painful sanctions
will persuade Iran to return to the negotiating table, with the willingness
to change its behavior this time. We must wait to see if Iran will be able
to resist sanctions within its borders or move its regional papers here and
there.
Will the Iranian reactions reach the level of direct or indirect harassment
of American soldiers in the region or the security of straits and corridors?
A new chapter begins. Here are the winds of sanctions blowing on the Iranian
economy. In the wind season, you have to search for the seat belt.
The Middle East "Truce": Why Hamas Cannot Be Trusted
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/November 05/18
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13240/hamas-truce-trust
These benefits for Hamas are exactly why the proposed truce is dangerous and
sends the wrong message to Hamas and other Palestinian terrorists. A truce
now says that if you engage in violent, extortionistic acts, you get what
you want.
This victory for Hamas will, of course, only increase the terrorists'
appetite and motivation to continue their attempts to kill as many Jews as
possible. They will see any truce as a retreat on the part of Israel in the
face of violence and terrorism.
Hamas will now have more time to prepare for the next war against Israel.
The proposed truce will give Hamas breathing space to smuggle more weapons
into the Gaza Strip, dig new tunnels and recruit thousands of Palestinians
to its ranks.
A real truce between Israel and the Gaza Strip will be achieved only after
the jihadi terrorists are removed from power, and not rewarded for violence
and threats.
It is no secret that most of the Arab countries do not trust Hamas, the
Palestinian Islamist group. President Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Authority,
for instance, as well as many Palestinians, do not have any confidence in
Hamas, particularly after the summer of 2007, when the Islamist movement
violently seized control of the Gaza Strip. Earlier this year, Abbas
threatened that "shoes will be pouring" onto the heads of Hamas leaders.
Now, however, Israel is being asked to trust Hamas. This request is coming
from Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations, whose representatives have been
working hard the past few weeks to arrange a truce agreement between Israel
and Hamas.
According to unconfirmed reports, the proposed truce calls for reopening all
the border crossings between the Gaza Strip on one side, and Israel and
Egypt on the other. The truce also apparently calls for expanding the
fishing zone off the Gaza Strip coast to 9 miles; paying salaries to
thousands of Hamas employees, and increasing fuel supplies to the only power
plant in Gaza. Qatar -- a country that has long been supporting the Muslim
Brotherhood and its offshoot, Hamas -- will be required to pay for the fuel
and the salaries, according to the proposed truce agreement.
What will Israel get in return? Calm. This means a Hamas promise temporarily
to stop launching terrorist attacks on Israel from the Gaza Strip. This
promise by Hamas also includes temporarily halting the weekly,
Hamas-sponsored, violent riots along the border between the Gaza Strip and
Israel.
Last weekend, there were already signs that Hamas was interested in reaching
a deal with Israel. The protests that Hamas launched on November 2 along the
Gaza-Israel were less violent than the previous ones. This change was the
result of direct orders issued by the Hamas leaders, who have apparently
reached the conclusion that a truce agreement, at this stage, will be good
for their group.
"The restless efforts by Egypt, Qatar and the UN to end the blockade on the
Gaza Strip are nearing success," said senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Haya.
Hamas and the other Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip, he added, were now
waiting for Israel's response to the mediation efforts made by Egypt, Qatar,
and the UN. Hamas has excellent reasons to be happy with the proposed truce
with Israel. The agreement does not require Hamas to make any real
concessions other than temporarily to stop its terrorist attacks on Israel.
The proposed accord does not require Hamas to disarm or dismantle its
militia. Hamas is not being asked to relinquish control over the Gaza Strip,
or pave the way for the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza. Hamas
is not being asked to destroy the terror attack tunnels it has dug along the
border with Israel. Hamas is not being asked to stop smuggling weapons, for
use against Israel, into the Gaza Strip. Hamas is not being asked to
renounce violence or recognize Israel's right to exist. Hamas is not being
asked to accept a two-state solution or abandon its dangerous, genocidal
ideology.
All that Hamas is being asked to do is to sit quietly and behave nicely so
that the group and its supporters can get salaries and fuel, and enjoy other
privileges, such as economic and humanitarian aid.
These benefits for Hamas are exactly why the proposed truce deal is
dangerous and sends the wrong message to Hamas and other Palestinian
terrorists. A truce now says that if you engage in violent, extortionistic
acts, you get what you want.
Hamas will see any truce with Israel as a victory. The agreement will come
after seven months of violent riots along the border with Israel. It will be
seen by Hamas as a victory because it will look as if the violent protests,
including the launching of thousands of rockets, mortar shells, and
incendiary kites and balloons towards Israel have finally achieved their
goal: forcing Israel and the international community to ease restrictions
imposed on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.
What is disturbing is that Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other
terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip already view the current mediation
efforts to achieve a truce with Israel as a reward for the past few months'
deluge of anti-Israel terrorist attacks.
They apparently believe that without the violent demonstrations and
terrorist attacks, which began last March, the international community would
not have moved to seek a solution to their economic and humanitarian crisis
in the Gaza Strip.
This victory will, of course, only increase the terrorists' appetite and
motivation to continue their attempts to kill as many Jews as possible. They
will see any truce as a retreat on the part of Israel in the face of
violence and terrorism.
When terrorists are smiling and celebrating what they perceive as victory,
the world needs to worry.
Israel is again taking a big gamble by considering a truce. It also taking a
big risk by putting its faith in the Egyptians, Qataris and the UN: Hamas
has repeatedly and consistently violated previous cease-fire agreements with
Israel.
By continuing to dig terror tunnels along Gaza's border with Israel, Hamas
has violated previous cease-fires. By continuing to conduct daily rocket
tests, Hamas has violated virtually all of the previous cease-fire
agreements. By dispatching Palestinians to plant explosive devices,
infiltrate the border with Israel, and launch arson kites and balloons,
Hamas has violated every previous cease-fire. In recent months, Hamas has
repeatedly broken even temporary cease-fires with Israel.
As for Egypt, Qatar, and the UN, they are acting strictly out of concern for
their own and Hamas's interests. Egypt wants a truce between Hamas and
Israel because it wants quite along its shared border with the Gaza Strip.
Qatar wants the truce because this wealthy Arab emirate wants to bolster the
standing of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas in the Arab and Islamic world.
The UN, for its part, wants to prove to the world that it still relevant,
influential and capable of contributing to stability, security and peace.
Not one of the three parties is trying to achieve a truce in the Gaza Strip
out of love for Israel or a genuine concern for anyone's security.
Hamas will be the biggest winner if and when an agreement is reached through
Egypt, Qatar and the UN. Economic and humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip
will absolve Hamas of its responsibilities towards the Palestinian
population there. Hamas will no longer have to worry about poverty and
unemployment because the international community will now be taking care of
the people in the Gaza Strip. Hamas will no longer have to worry about
paying salaries to thousands of Palestinian employees or purchasing fuel
needed to keep the power plant operating. Qatar has already pledged to cover
the expense of the fuel and employees' salaries.
Hamas will now have more time to prepare for the next war against Israel.
The proposed truce will give Hamas breathing space to smuggle more weapons
into the Gaza Strip, dig new tunnels and recruit thousands of Palestinians
to its ranks. Hamas will not take advantage of the truce to build hospitals
and schools or create new job opportunities or improve the living conditions
of the Palestinians under its rule. All Hamas wants is a break so that it
will be able to strengthen itself in preparation for the next war against
Israel. Egypt, Qatar and the UN are now pressuring Israel to give Hamas an
opportunity to amass more weapons and terrorists.
Israel is being asked to give those who seek its destruction yet another
chance. Israel is being asked to give those who seek its destruction more
fishing areas that will facilitate their mission of smuggling weapons into
the Gaza Strip. Israel is being asked to open its borders to oblige those
who call for its destruction day and night. Israel is being asked to send
fuel and medical aid to those who burn its flags and, on a daily basis, in
the mosques and public squares of the Gaza Strip, call for its obliteration.
Israel is being asked to make all these gestures to Hamas at a time when
most Arabs have stopped trusting the terrorist group years ago. The Syrian
regime dumped Hamas shortly after the beginning of the civil war in 2011
because of its support for the anti-Bashar Assad opposition forces. In 2012,
the Syrian authorities closed down Hamas offices in Damascus and expelled
several leaders of the terrorist group.
Jordan also shut down the Hamas offices in Amman two decades ago, and in
1999 expelled several Hamas officials from the kingdom.
The Egyptians cordially hate Hamas: they consider it a "threat" to their
national security because of its affiliation with Muslim Brotherhood and
terrorist groups fighting against the regime of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
Some Egyptians have also accused Hamas of working with the Islamic terrorist
groups in the Sinai Peninsula.
Saudi Arabia has gone even further by denouncing Hamas as a terrorist
organization.
These are only a few examples of how Arab countries view and deal with
Hamas. Israel, meanwhile, is being asked to help Hamas by easing
restrictions on the Gaza Strip. It is a request that poses a severe threat
to Israel's security. Ironically, the threat to Israel that this truce
presents is far more severe than the current assaults Israel is undoubtedly
hoping that the truce will stop. If Hamas's Arab brothers do not trust this
terrorist group, why should Israel?
The proposed truce may bring calm along the border between Israel and the
Gaza Strip, but only in the short term. Hamas is not going to change its
ideology or policies as a result of any temporary truce. It will always
continue to work towards achieving its goal of seeing to it that Israel is
"removed from the map."
This goal is why Israel needs to remain on high alert even if a truce is
reached. Hamas's goal is also why the international community needs to
understand that striking deals with terrorists simply emboldens terrorists
and their friends in ISIS and other jihadi groups. The only way to deal with
Islamist terrorists is by making sure that they are the first to "disappear
from the map." A real truce between Israel and the Gaza Strip will be
achieved only after the jihadi terrorists are removed from power, and not
rewarded for violence and threats.
*Bassam Tawil is an Arab Muslim based in the Middle East.
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here
do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone
Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be
reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of
Gatestone Institute.
**Pictured: Ashiq Masih, the husband of Asia Bibi, together with their
daughter Eisham Ashiq, campaigning for Asia's release in 2015. (Image
source: HazteOir/Flickr)
Iranian regime running out of options as sanctions hit
النظام الإيراني
ومحدودية الخيارات مع بدأ العقوبات
Dr. Mohammed Alsulami/Arab News/November 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68694/m-alsulami-iranian-regime-running-out-of-options-as-sanctions-hit-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d8%b8%d8%a7%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d9%88%d9%85%d8%ad%d8%af%d9%88%d8%af%d9%8a/
The second tranche of US sanctions on Iran
have now taken effect. The new sanctions have been described by the White
House as the strongest and most crippling in the history of sanctions
imposed on the Iranian regime since the 1979 revolution. This package will
reimpose all the sanctions previously lifted following the signing of the
landmark nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 group of nations in 2015.
These sanctions are only the latest in a number of massive political and
economic challenges facing the regime at home and abroad, with widespread
public anger rising steadily at the regime’s brutal, oppressive, theocratic
Vilayat-e Faqih (“Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist”) ruling system. Calls
for the ousting of the rulers, which nobody would have dared express a few
years ago, are now common.
The hottest issue at the moment is the mounting US pressure on Tehran,
including the halting of exports of Iranian oil, which the US wants to see
reduced to zero. We know that the US administration did not achieve this
objective before the start of the second package of sanctions. Eight nations
have been exempted from this embargo, including China, Japan, India, Italy
and Turkey, all of which were granted an opportunity to slowly reduce their
reliance on Iranian oil. These temporary exemptions indicate that the US
administration is intent on achieving its ultimate objective, albeit with a
little alteration to the original timeframe.
The continuing steep decline of the value of the Iranian rial against
foreign currencies, especially the US dollar and the euro, is expected to
continue through the coming months. This comes despite Tehran’s efforts to
maintain the current value of its currency for domestic political ends.
Iranian banks are also set to face more difficulties, with the Central Bank
expected to be shaken by a number of crises in the upcoming months. Iran
will also face obstacles in getting revenues from its oil and non-oil
exports.
Compounding the regime’s woes, European governments’ efforts to find
alternative financial mechanisms and solutions to circumvent the US
sanctions have been wholly unsuccessful. Meanwhile, countries like Turkey,
India, China and Japan may resort to paying for their oil imports from Iran
through the traditional barter process, such as trading goods for oil rather
than for cash, which may require a reduction in the price of Iranian oil to
attract buyers.
In the past week, Iran’s attempt to drum up trade by putting its oil on sale
at a local bourse was largely unsuccessful, attracting only a few buyers and
forcing the regime in Tehran to further reduce the price to sell at least
some of its output.
All of the options currently available to Iran aim solely to curb rather
than to avert losses, meaning the negative impact of the sanctions will
definitely take a heavy toll.
While some small European and Asian companies that have no dealings with the
US may continue to deal with Iran, these will be too small to save the
Iranian economy or to fill the vacuum left by the departure of big
companies.
Conducting oil transactions via barter would primarily be beneficial for the
importers, who can both guarantee a buyer for their products and use Iran’s
dire economic circumstances to impose their own conditions. This will also
increase the regime’s suffering, making it harder for the leadership to
obtain hard currency and leading to further deterioration in the nation’s
economy. Ultimately, the regime in Tehran may be forced to accept the 12
conditions laid out by the Trump administration to have the sanctions lifted
and resume negotiations.
The Iranian regime is awaiting the results of the 2020 US elections to
discover whether the current administration will be re-elected or a new one
will come to power. This is a high-stakes gamble, which will place the
rulers in a more complicated situation should Trump win a second term or if
a new administration adopting the same current hard-line policy comes to
power. This is apart from the possibility of a rise in domestic pressure on
the regime due to worsening living conditions.
Iran’s regime also remains unable to provide any solutions to its domestic
crises, which continue to expand both geographically and socially,
accelerated by the large-scale collapse of the small and medium-sized
commercial sector. These two sectors have been effectively pushed out of the
market in light of the plummeting national currency, heavy taxes, and
bureaucratic obstacles.
In the meantime, the sectors run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),
which have overcome all these obstacles through exemptions and
facilitations, are also dependent on smuggling and on effective ownership of
government firms that offer direct and indirect facilitations to other IRGC-affiliated
firms under civilian names.
This point will pose significant challenges to the US Treasury Department’s
efforts to track individuals and entities associated with the IRGC and place
them on the sanctions list. While it is true that Washington constantly
announces new lists of names, the IRGC owns many entities domestically and
overseas that may need more time and extraordinary efforts to identify and
blacklist.
Overseas, meanwhile, with the possible exception of Russia and China, and —
for political reasons and others related to competitiveness — with the US,
many nations, including European countries, are being forced to stop dealing
with Iran, albeit gradually. Investing in Iran is almost impossible at
present.
While some small European and Asian companies that have no dealings with the
US may continue to deal with Iran, these will be too small to save the
Iranian economy or to fill the vacuum left by the departure of big
companies.
On a related note, regional nations, especially the Gulf countries, are
expected to adopt a carrot-and-stick approach in their efforts to force Iran
to comply with US measures through, inter alia, building relations with
companies that have been forced to withdraw from the Iranian market or to
freeze their trade relations with Iran and to grant these firms competitive
investment shares in local markets. By contrast, transactions with firms
that ignore US sanctions and deal with Iran will be halted.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian
Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami
Progress Without Peace
in the Middle East
تقدم في الشرق الأوسط
ولكن لا سلام
Aaron David Miller and Hillel Zand/The Atlantic/November 05/18/
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68694/m-alsulami-iranian-regime-running-out-of-options-as-sanctions-hit-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d8%b8%d8%a7%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d9%88%d9%85%d8%ad%d8%af%d9%88%d8%af%d9%8a/
Flanked by his wife, his national-security
adviser, and the head of the Mossad, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu made a surprise visit last week to Oman and met with its leader,
Sultan Qaboos bin Said.
Beyond the headline is a stunningly paradoxical trend line: The most
significant period of Israeli-Arab de facto cooperation since the last real
peace process, in the 1990s, is now taking place without one. Netanyahu and
his right-wing government are reversing the notion that only peace with the
Palestinians can ensure Israel’s acceptance into an angry and hostile Arab
world. The Arab street may still oppose Israel, but Arab leaders clearly
don’t.
Netanyahu isn’t the first Israeli prime minister to meet Qaboos at home.
Yitzhak Rabin had that honor in 1994. And while the current spate of
Israeli-Arab activity is nowhere near the salad days of the 1990s in the
wake of the Oslo Accords, the extent of Israeli contacts both above and
below the table are impressive, especially because it’s the hard-line
Netanyahu running the show and not the moderate Rabin.
Netanyahu has long boasted of secret Israeli relations and cooperation with
Gulf states, telling the Knesset as recently as last week how “Israel and
other Arab countries are closer than they ever were before.” And while he
tends to exaggerate, consider the following.
On Sunday, Sports and Culture Minister Miri Regev—one of the Netanyahu
cabinet’s most vocal critics of the Palestinians—became the first senior
Israeli official to visit Abu Dhabi’s Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque. The same
day, after years of being forbidden to display national symbols at Gulf
sporting events, the Israeli national anthem played when the Israeli judo
team won a gold medal at the International Judo Federation’s Grand Slam in
Abu Dhabi. Next week, Intelligence and Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz
will visit Oman and Communications Minister Ayoob Kara will visit Abu Dhabi.
An Israeli gymnastics team is also currently competing in Qatar.
These moments of soft diplomacy appear to be bearing fruit for Israel’s
foreign-policy agenda. After Netanyahu’s visit, Oman’s foreign minister
stated, “Israel is a state present in the region, and we all understand
this. The world is also aware of this fact.” Bahrain’s foreign minister
expressed support for Oman’s role in trying to catalyze Israeli-Palestinian
peace, and his Saudi Arabian counterpart declared that the peace process was
key to normalizing relations.
The biggest prize for Israel is, indeed, a relationship with Saudi Arabia —
a goal that has been pushed and encouraged by Donald Trump’s administration,
particularly the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who’s established a
close tie with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, widely known as MbS.
Hurdles include King Salman’s desire to ensure that his impulsive son
doesn’t give too much to the Israelis too soon and MbS’s alleged involvement
in the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which might lead him
to cut a lower profile internationally. But there are signs that the Saudis
are giving up their old hard-line opposition to Israel. When Trump moved the
American embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, Saudi Arabia had a
decidedly low-key reaction; Saudi Arabia opened its air space to Air India’s
commercial flights to Israel; an unofficial Saudi delegation visited Israel
to push the Arab Peace Initiative; and it’s been reported that the Israelis
are selling the Saudis millions in surveillance equipment, and even
assisting MbS with his security.
Something is clearly happening.
The Arab world’s new openness to Israel is driven in part by increasing
impatience and annoyance with the Palestinians. The record of Arab-state
betrayal and conflict with the Palestine Liberation Organization is well
known. Indeed, with the exception of Egypt, every Arab state that shares
common borders with Israel has fought bloody battles with the Palestinian
national movement. Today the Saudis and Egyptians are frustrated with a weak
Mahmoud Abbas and worried about Hamas. The silence of the Arab world in the
face of recent Israeli-Hamas confrontations in Gaza, including the last
major conflict, in 2014, which claimed more than 2,000 Palestinian lives,
was deafening.
Add to this the Arab states’ fear of Iran and Sunni jihadists, and a desire
to please the Trump administration—and suddenly it’s obvious that Israel and
its neighbors are bound by common interests.
Tensions, of course, remain. Last week, Jordan’s King Abdullah—under
domestic pressure as a result of Netanyahu’s policies toward the
Palestinians—announced that he would terminate two land leases with Israel
agreed to in their 1994 peace treaty. But even this problem may in the end
be worked out in subsequent negotiations.
The upshot of all of this isn’t that the Arab world is moving at breakneck
speed to desert the Palestinians, or to fully normalize ties with Israel.
But Netanyahu appears to be dealing with an Arab world ready to engage
incrementally with Israel despite that fact that a peace deal is not
forthcoming. In a volatile and combustible Middle East, the prime minister
should enjoy his thaw while it lasts.
Implications of US
interest rate rise on the Gulf region
Dr. Mohamed A. Ramady/Al Arabiya/November 05/18
The independence of the US Federal Reserve or Central Bank seems to be under
threat from President Trump who is casting doubts about Fed Chairman Jerome
Powell fitness as Chairman of the Fed and blaming him for hasty decisions to
raise interest rates and derailing the US economic recovery and even
complaining that the Fed had “gone loco – crazy”.
President Donald Trump said the Federal Reserve is moving too fast with
interest-rate increases and dismissed concerns about inflation, extending
his run of criticism that central bankers have largely disregarded as they
push ahead with higher borrowing costs. Asked if he regrets nominating
Powell to his Fed chairmanship, Trump was quoted as saying “Too early to
tell, but maybe.”
But the Fed Chairman seemed unmoved and has said neither he nor other Fed
officials are letting Trump’s frequent complaints affect them, with the
Chairman pointedly adding that “my focus is essentially on controlling the
uncontrollable. We control what do.”
So far the Federal Reserve has stood its ground with implications far beyond
the US economy but to those countries whose currencies are pegged to the US
dollar, and hence, US interest rate movements. The latest communications by
Federal Reserve officials are seen as further confirmation of a strong
economy showing no signs of slowing and a still tightening labour market
that should soon lead to faster wage growth.
In other words, this is an affirmation of the continued gradual pace in rate
hikes mapped out by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and in the wave of similar
remarks by so many other Federal Open Market Committee in recent weeks,
reflecting an unusually firm Committee consensus.
The drop in the US headline unemployment rate to 3.7 percent is impressive,
and even if the job creation figure was only 134,000, the big upward
revisions mean the October month’s job gains still translates into a very
healthy 208,000 average a month over the first nine months of this year
compared to last year’s 182k average – and that in an economy that is
supposed to be running out of workers.
For Gulf businesses, the expected US interest rate hikes should be warning
enough to prepare them to re-examine existing loan portfolios
Good news
In good news for the president, wages grew at their fastest rate for close
to a decade. The unemployment rate in the US has not remained below 4
percent for a sustained period since the Vietnam War. The US has now added
jobs every month for 97 months in a row – the longest run of job gains on
record.
Second, for the Powell-led Fed, higher wage growth in itself will not cause
anxieties over inflation, and that helps to put into context Powell’s
remarks that drew so much reaction in the markets.
Some do not think his remarks were meant as a hardening per se of a hawkish
messaging on the Fed's already presumed base rate path. He was instead
delivering pretty much the same message but speaking to a more lay audience;
Powell in fact has made a point of not only speaking in plain English but
also reaching to a wider public than the markets or any particular tweeters.
A December hike is about as certain as possible under the current outlook,
and while the risks going into next year look to be tilted to the upside
that all but ensures 2019 is equally certain to see further rate hikes, we
would caution the actual rate decisions, and thus the pace and ultimate
number of hikes, will be taken on a meeting to meeting basis.
This goes against President Trump wishes and he made his intentions clear by
stating bluntly “I like low interest rates,” but whether the Fed will grant
him his wish is another matter with an institution that vigorously defends
its independence.
This is not particular to the United States as the current faceoff between
the Indian Central Bank and the Indian Government testifies to political
pressure to rein in central bank independence to government economic
policies and loosen credit policies with Indian national elections next
year.
Economic expansion
And so the US face off also continues – with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
aiming to extend the second-longest US economic expansion on record by
moving interest rates up just quickly enough to prevent overheating, but not
so rapidly that the central bank chokes off growth.
It is a fine balancing act that has political ramifications for the US
mid-term but more crucially the next Presidential elections. President Trump
understands this and he was on the spot when he stated that the economy is
enjoying “record-setting” numbers and “I don’t want to slow it down even a
little bit, especially when we don’t have the problem of inflation.”
Economic facts and data will show who is on firmer ground, but for Gulf
businesses, the expected US interest rate hikes and resultant Gulf interest
rate rises should be warning enough to prepare them to re- examine their
existing loan portfolios and lock in longer term fixed lower rates if
possible.
Some lower tier credit risk customers might not have the luxury to do so,
but top tier clients and new customers can at least try as higher interest
rates are coming as surely as night follows day. But it is not the private
sector that can start to plan ahead but Gulf regulators too.
These should now request Gulf commercial banks carry out stress testing
their current loan portfolios against the expected interest rate hikes to
assess any incremental non-performing loan (NPL) loss contingencies from
marginal credits and those most likely affected by higher borrowing costs.
نزار زكا: دولتي لا تزال في غيبوبة
كاملة
Zakka Says Lebanese
State in 'Coma' over His Detention
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68688/%d9%86%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%b2%d9%83%d8%a7-%d8%af%d9%88%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d8%b2%d8%a7%d9%84-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%ba%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%88%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d9%83%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a9-zakka/
Hezbollah's Role in a
New Lebanese Government Causes a Headache for Hariri
مايكل يانغ: دور حزب الله في الحكومة الجديدة يسبب صداعاً للحريري
Michael Young/The National/November 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68692/michael-young-the-national-hezbollahs-role-in-a-new-lebanese-government-causes-a-headache-for-hariri-%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%8a%d9%83%d9%84-%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%ba-%d8%af%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8/
The Lebanese Armed
Forces and Hezbollah: Military Dualism in Post-War Lebanon
أرام ناركزيان: الجيش اللبناني وحزب الله: الثنائي العسكري في لبنان ما بعد
الحرب
Aram
Nerguizian/Italian Institute for International Political Studies/November
05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68690/aram-nerguizian-italian-institute-for-international-political-studies-the-lebanese-armed-forces-and-hezbollah-military-dualism-in-post-war-lebanon-%d8%a3%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%83/
Progress Without Peace
in the Middle East
تقدم في الشرق الأوسط
ولكن لا سلام
Aaron David Miller and Hillel Zand/The Atlantic/November 05/18/
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68694/m-alsulami-iranian-regime-running-out-of-options-as-sanctions-hit-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d8%b8%d8%a7%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d9%88%d9%85%d8%ad%d8%af%d9%88%d8%af%d9%8a/
Iranian regime running
out of options as sanctions hit
النظام الإيراني
ومحدودية الخيارات مع بدأ العقوبات
Dr. Mohammed Alsulami/Arab News/November 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68694/m-alsulami-iranian-regime-running-out-of-options-as-sanctions-hit-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d8%b8%d8%a7%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d9%88%d9%85%d8%ad%d8%af%d9%88%d8%af%d9%8a/