LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 10/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Iran Demands Guarantees From Europe To Stay In Deal
جيرازلم بوست: إيران تطلب بضمانات أوروبية لعدم الخروج من الإتفاق النووي
Jerusalem Post/May 09/18
French Foreign Miniser Jean-Yves Le Drian said he believed that there was a real risk of war unless the deal was salvaged.
ran threatened to nix its nuclear deal unless the three European signatories to the nuclear deal — France, Germany and the United Kingdom — offer Tehran strong incentives.
“We do not trust the three European countries, like we don’t trust the US; without receiving a strong guarantee from these three European countries, we won't stick to the nuclear agreement [the JCPOA],” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday in Tehran.An English version of the speech he gave in the aftermath of the US decision to nix the deal and reimpose sanctions on Iran was posted on his web site.
The E3 countries have been hopefully they can sway Iran to remain in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action under which Tehran agreed to curb is nuclear program in exchange for an agreement from the six world powers that they would lift their economic sanctions.
Russia and China are also signatories to the deal and, like the E3, have no interest in ending it. French President Emmanuel Macron urged his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani in a telephone call on Wednesday to respect the deal.
"The French president and the Iranian president agreed to continue their joint work with all concerned states in order to keep implementing the nuclear deal and preserve regional stability," Macron's office said in a statement.
Macron assured Rouhani of France's desire to keep the nuclear accord alive and pressed Tehran to do the same. French Foreign Miniser Jean-Yves Le Drian told RTL radio that high level talks would take place between the E3 countries and Iran.
“We will meet the Iranians next week with my German and British colleagues,” Drian told RTL radio, adding that the meeting would likely take place on Monday or Tuesday. “It's not a European summit, it's a meeting between ministers,” he said.
Meetings would also be held with the likes of oil giant Total and others with major business and economic stakes in the region, he added.
“The deal isn't dead. Sorry, I say this again, the deal is here, the deal not only isn't dead but it was unanimously endorsed by the United Nations Security Council, the deal is not dead, it needs to continue."
“The United States are withdrawing but the deal exists, let's be clear about this,” Le Drian said.
"I hope [the US withdrawal] not a setback for peace, in any case [French President] Emmanuel Macron offered [US] President [Donald] Trump a political initiative which is still on the table and which he didn't reject in last night's comments. “We have to see now if, beyond the agreement, we can gather the actors around the table to allow for a perspective of stability in the region, which now risks being in a situation of confrontation soon if nothing is done.”
Le Drian said he believed that there was a real risk of war unless the deal was salvaged. “There is a real risk of confrontation that is why it is preferable that the Iranians show restraint, that they take the time to assess what is happening, that they take time to speak with the Europeans, that we take the time to speak with all those involved,” he said.
Le Drian said France, like others, was well aware that there were concerns about issues beyond Iran's nuclear capability, namely its ballistic weapons program, but said they could be addressed without ditching the nuclear deal.
Russian and German foreign ministers were also due to meet in Moscow, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said.
"Our aim is clear: We keep committed to the nuclear deal. For our own security concerns alone. And therefore, we will work for this treaty to have a future. It is the successful result of a long-term difficult diplomatic negotiations. And most of all: the deal is working,” German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said.
"It cannot be in the interest of Iran to jeopardize the path that we have chosen with that deal and the chances that have occurred to Iran because of it. And that is why we call on Iran to keep on acting responsibly and stick to the commitments under the deal,” Maas said.
“We will hold talks with all sides. And we will speak with one voice together with France and Great Britain,” Maas said.
In addition, he said, "We will look at the implications for European companies and how the Europeans can respond together,” Maas said.
“It is totally unclear what the US envisages as an alternative to the deal that prevents Iran from developing nuclear weapons while being able to verify compliance,” Maas added.
British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said the world should hold US President Donald Trump to his stated aim of finding a new solution to the Iranian nuclear threat.
Johnson, speaking to the British parliament, said it was now up to the United States to come forward with concrete proposals on Iran.
Trump’s new ambassador to Germany said German businesses should halt their activities in Iran immediately.
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the United States should not consider itself the world's "economic policeman.”
European companies including carmaker PSA, plane manufacturer Airbus and engineering group Siemens said they were keeping a close eye on the situation.
Trump announced on Tuesday he would reimpose US economic sanctions on Iran to undermine what he called "a horrible, one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made.”
The 2015 agreement was the fruit of more than a decade of diplomacy, the pact was designed to prevent Iran obtaining a nuclear bomb.
Trump complained that the deal, the signature foreign policy achievement of his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, did not address Iran's ballistic missile program, its nuclear activities beyond 2025 or its role in conflicts in Yemen and Syria.
His decision raises the risk of deepening conflicts in the Middle East, puts the United States at odds with European diplomatic and business interests, and casts uncertainty over global oil supplies. Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Wednesday, with Brent hitting a 3-1/2-year high.
https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran-demands-guarantees-from-Europe-to-stay-in-deal-555985

Is the Iranian nuclear deal alive, wounded or dead?
جيرازلم بوست: هل تم قتل الإتفاق النووي الإيراني أم أنه أصيب بجروح فقط
Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/May 09/18
The US nuclear sanctions as currently structured do not kick in for 90 days. That gives time to negotiate and salvage the situation.
As with many actions by President Donald Trump, the full answer will not be clear until some time passes. But overall the deal is a lot closer to being dead than either alive or wounded.
What about Trump’s speech puts the deal on its deathbed, what leaves an opening for it to survive, and how did we get here?
The narrative kept shifting recently.
Weeks before Donald Trump’s Iran nuclear deal “fix it or nix it” deadline, observers started to predict that he would force the Europeans into negotiating a side agreement that fixed the deal’s holes other than the “sunset clauses.”
The sunset clause issue was the concern that Iran’s nuclear program would have no limits once the deal expired.
If a separate agreement could be signed to address Iran’s ballistic missile program, its terrorism in the Middle East and the limits on IAEA inspectors’ ability to inspect military sites for traces of nuclear weapons, then maybe the sunset issue could be worked out later.
Days before Trump’s speech the narrative had shifted to that he would formally withdraw from the deal, but quietly look the other way on enforcing sanctions.
This was and is the heart of his speech.
All of the innuendo about being “in” or “out” of the deal matters, but the real question always was whether the US would enforce secondary sanctions against its EU allies and other countries if they do business with Iran.
Had Trump announced the US was exiting the deal, but left the sanctions issue vague and looked the other way while the EU and others did business with Iran, the deal could have been declared wounded, but not dead.
But that was not enough for the US president.
His strategy is clearly not to put band-aids on the deal’s holes and ask Iran nicely through the EU to agree to some fixes.
And observers who say that he was only interested in keeping a domestic campaign promise missed some of the spirit of his speech and whom Trump has hired recently onto his national security team.
The Jerusalem Post has interviewed Trump’s new National Security Adviser John Bolton multiple times.
Bolton is pro Iran-regime change and pro using brute military-diplomatic threats and brinkmanship to achieve desired policy goals.
Trump and Bolton want to stand over Iran threateningly and demand it agree to a new deal with all of the changes they want.
Why then should the deal be described as on its deathbed, but not totally dead?
Trump did not mention the 90 days, but the way the sanctions work and as leaked right before his speech, the US nuclear sanctions as currently structured do not kick in for 90 days.
His mention of still wanting to cut a deal with North Korea also was a sign that he is willing to cut deals with a regime he has threatened, even if only on his terms.
That gives time to negotiate and salvage the situation.
At this point, whether that something is called a modified old deal or a new deal is less important than whether the US and Iran are on course toward some kind of détente or whether they are on course toward a conflict.
Critics of Trump have said that his leaving the deal will inevitably lead to war.
That is not true. Ninety days have to pass, Iran has to feel the heat enough to withdraw from the 2015 agreement, and it has to decide to dare the US by restarting to highly enrich uranium (as opposed to for example just start failing to cooperate on some smaller issue) before war is really in the air.
But by formally exiting the deal and signing sanctions to kick in in 90 days (another option was 180 days), Trump is signaling he is more comfortable with that living-on-the-edge scenario achieving his goals of Iran ending its pursuit of nuclear weapons and restraining its support for terrorism, than he is with another half-year of negotiations to only achieve some of his aims.
Whether the deal, or a new version, makes a late comeback or dies on the deathbed, is now mostly up to Iran and the EU.
Both Iran and the EU talked tough until recent weeks. The EU threatened to counter-sanction and sue the US in international forums. Iran threatened to pull out if the US committed even a minor violation of the 2015 agreement.
But in the last couple of days, both Tehran and Brussels have said they will keep the deal even if the US pulls out. That suggests Trump may have read their positions correctly and that they might respond to pressure. Still, Iran has never wavered from saying it will not amend the deal.
Within 90 days, we will likely know whether Trump’s gamble is starting to pay off or whether the deal will have been killed with no plan B to block Iran from rushing to a bomb, other than a military strike

Report: Missiles aimed at Israel targeted in base strike
يدعوت احرنوت: التقارير تفيد أنه تم تدمير القواعد الصاروخية الإيرانية في سوريا التي كانت موجهة صوب إسرائيل
Liad Osmo, Yoav Zitun and Daniel Salami/Ynetnews/May 09/18
Following IDF reports of 'irregular Iranian movements' in Syria, orders to open bomb shelters in Israel's north, loud explosions reported south of Damascus; senior Syrian army official says Israel carried out attack coordinated with US withdrawal from Iran nuclear deal; Syrian news agency: 'Missile defenses intercepted 2 Israeli missiles'; 9 militiamen reported killed.
Syria media outlets reported Tuesday evening explosions were heard around Damascus, in the Al-Kiswah region south of the Syrian capital. It was further reported the strike's target were missiles trained at Israel.
A senior Syrian army official was quoted by the Reuters news agency as saying that, "Israel targeted a Syrian army position south of Damascus."
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Wednesday the strike had killed at least 15 people, including eight Iranians. "The number increased to at least 15, including at least eight Iranians, killed by the missile strikes," the British-based Observatory reported. The possible attack came after the IDF instructed to open public bomb shelters in the Golan Heights amid Israeli reports of "irregular Iranian movements" in Syria and the ongoing fear of an Iranian strike at Israel in retaliation for the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the airstrike on the T-4 Airbase near Homs last month.
The base attacked in Damascus, Arab media reported, housed Iranian forces and was attacked by Israel in the past. Increased Israeli Air Force traffic was also mentioned in the skies over Israel's northern frontier in unconfirmed reports.
There was no immediate comment from Israel, which almost never confirms or denies airstrikes in Syria. Yedioth Ahronoth military correspondent Ron Ben-Yishai added that it could be gleaned from the Syrian report of an Israeli attack on a base used by Iranian militias that Iranians have been trying to launch missiles or rockets at Israel in the past few days. Israel has foiled these attempts, Ben-Yishai opined, both by using the media and—reportedly—by launching a preventative attack. It could also be surmised that the targets of Tuesday's attack were missile silos and rocket launchers the Iranians took out of hiding and intended to use—prompting Israel to attack once it discovered it.
A short time after the initial reports, sounds of explosion could be heard south of the capital, with the official Syrian news agency reporting that "Syrian air defenses have intercepted two Israeli missiles."
A Syrian general told Syrian state television, meanwhile, that the Israeli attack was coordinated with the American withdrawal from the nuclear deal, claiming that its purpose was to test Syria rather than destroy the base.
American army officials, for their part, told CNN of a growing fear that Iran was on the cusp of attacking Israel. When the attack takes place was unclear according to intelligence, the officials said, as was its target.
"If an attack takes place, it may not be immediately clear the perpetrator was Iran," one US official said. Regardless, the United States is closely monitoring to see whether Iran or its proxies carry out offensive actions in Syria, Lebanon—or even in Iran itself. The US-led coalition against the Islamic State in Syria said Tuesday no changes could be seen in the movement of Iranian troops in the past few days.
Earlier Tuesday, the IDF instructed the opening of shelters in Israel's northern region. Its statement said, "In light of a series of irregular identifications among Iranian forces in Syria, it was decided to make clearer defensive instructions in the Golan Heights region."At the same time, the US Embassy in Israel published a warning to US government officials, barring the visitation of any Americans to Israel's north without prior approval.
"Consider well whether to visit the Golan Heights until tensions in the region decrease," the statement said. "Increase alertness and look after those around you."
It was reported Monday in Arab media outlets that eight soldiers from the Syrian army's aerial defense force were killed in a mysterious explosion that took place Sunday on the Damascus-Suwayda road.
Engineers and soldiers from said battalion, tasked with operating the S-200 aerial defense system and responsible for downing an Israeli F-16 two months ago, were riding in a transport vehicle when the explosion occurred.
Syrian sources said eight men were killed, and were quick to finger Israel in blame. It was also reported some of the vehicle's passengers actually took part in the downing of the Israeli plane over the Golan.
The Israeli air force attacked a number of Syrian targets in retaliation for the downing.
The T-4 Airbase near Homs was bombed last month, in a strike that was widely attributed to Israel. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported 14 people killed in the missile strike, including senior Iranian officials.
The Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese Al Mayadeen network, for its part, reported that the missiles that hit the Homs airfield passed through Lebanese airspace, meaning they had come in from the Mediterranean.
*Reuters contributed to this story.
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5255112,00.html

Deciphering Trump’s termination of the Iran nuclear deal/
حل شيفرات انهاء ترمب للإتفاق النووي الإيراني
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 09/18
The world was watching closely as President Donald Trump announced that the United States would be withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which is commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. The US government, during the Obama administration, and the Iranian regime were the two most important players among the P5+1, or E3+3, which helped seal the nuclear agreement. The other signatories of the nuclear pact are Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany.
There appears to be a considerable of amount of misinformation about the US decision, what actions can be taken legally, and what the corresponding implications and consequences are. It is crucial to point out there are three distinct processes to pay attention to: The first one is linked to certification of the nuclear deal; the second category is related to the subject of issuing a material breach report; and the third is associated with the president’s power to waive the re-imposition of US sanctions against Tehran.
Under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act — a bill that was passed by the US Congress in May 2015 — the US president must issue or decline a certification for the Iran nuclear deal every 90 days in order to notify Congress of Tehran’s compliance with the JCPOA. Moreover, instead of certifying or decertifying the nuclear deal, the president has another option, which is to issue a material breach report. To do so, the president would have to provide a breach report to Congress. If the president does not certify the deal or if he submits a breach report to Congress, this will trigger a 60-day window within which Congress will have time to introduce and pass legislation to re-impose US nuclear-related sanctions against Iran. Congress has the choice of whether to re-impose some or all of the sanctions that were lifted due to the nuclear accord. The legislation must be introduced by the majority or minority leader in the Senate and House of Representatives, and such legislation would be processed on expedited terms. If Congress does not pass any legislation in the 60-day window, the nuclear deal will remain intact in spite of the fact the president has decertified it or submitted a material breach report to Congress. This scenario is exactly what happened in mid-January, when Trump declined to certify the nuclear deal. However, Congress was reluctant to introduce and pass legislation during the 60-day window. As a result, Iran continued enjoying all the fruits of the US sanctions relief.
The third category is tied to the power of the US president to sign a waiver for re-imposing US primary and secondary sanctions against Iran every three months. The president’s latest decision to pull out of the nuclear deal is directly linked to this category. In other words, Tuesday’s decision was significant due to the notion that Trump is not waiving the US sanctions against Iran.
This wind-down period is likely designed to give time to foreign companies and corporations to leave Iran’s market and halt their dealings with the country. If they don’t, they will face the consequences of the US sanctions
What sanctions will be re-imposed after the US has pulled out of the nuclear deal? To put it simply, primary sanctions are designed to punish US persons or institutions that deal with the sanctioned party (the Iran regime or specific Iranian individuals and organizations). Secondary sanctions widen the scope of the punishment by targeting Iran’s industries, including oil and banking, as well as foreign entities that deal with the sanctioned entity. European countries continued to do business with Iran after the US decertified the nuclear deal in January because Trump signed a waiver to continue suspending US sanctions against Tehran. However, foreign companies now face a significant risk in continuing doing business with the Iranian regime.
What is the next step now that Trump has abandoned the nuclear deal? Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will work together to re-impose the sanctions on Iran.
The US Treasury will not re-impose economic sanctions immediately. Instead, there exists a 90-day and 180-day window period. On Aug. 6, some of the sanctions will be re-imposed, and on Nov. 6 the rest of the sanctions, which were lifted in 2015 due to the nuclear agreement, will be reactivated.
This wind-down period is likely designed to give time to foreign companies and corporations to leave Iran’s market and halt their dealings with the country. If they don’t, they will face the consequences of the US sanctions.
It is worth noting that another differentiation to make here is between the US sanctions on the one hand, and the UN Security Council sanctions on the other. The primary and secondary sanctions were unilateral US actions that were lifted by the Obama administration to appease Tehran and get the nuclear deal over the finishing line. The UN’s four rounds of sanctions against Iran, which were also lifted thanks to the nuclear agreement and would be re-imposed if Iran does not comply with the JCPOA, were reached by consensus among the five permanent members of the Security Council.
In technical terms, the US decision to leave the nuclear deal and re-impose primary and secondary sanctions does not mean that the UN Security Council’s sanctions will automatically snap back. Other members of the nuclear deal can decide to keep the JCPOA, continue doing business with Iran, and face the negative consequences. Since the president has declined to waive the US sanctions, the Trump administration still has two options: Trump can continue declining to waive all the sanctions, or he can decide to re-impose some of the sanctions. For example, he could re-impose sanctions against Iran’s banking system, and later re-impose sanctions related to its oil and aviation sectors. Finally, The US decision to pull out of the nuclear deal, as well as the re-imposition of US primary and secondary sanctions against Iran, will create significant challenges for the Iranian regime and its state apparatuses to do business with foreign corporations. Large corporations and foreign firms ought to be extremely cautious of conducting any business with Iran because they will run the risk of losing their business with the US.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

15 killed in Syria strike, including 8 Iranians'
الغارة الإسرائيلي على قواعد إيرانية في سوريا قتلت 15 بينهم 8 من الإيرانيين
Reuters/Ynetnews/May 09/18
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says number of casualties in attack on Iranian military facilities south of Damascus, which was attributed to Israel, rose to 15 people, eight of them Iranians; attack comes shortly after Trump announcement of US pullout from Iran nuclear deal.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Wednesday an attack on Iranian military facilities south of Damascus, attributed to Israel, had killed at least 15 people, including eight Iranians.
The reports of an Israeli attack on depots and rocket launchers in the Kisweh area late on Tuesday followed US President Donald Trump's announcement that he was pulling out of the Iranian nuclear deal.
"The number increased to at least 15, including at least eight Iranians, killed by the missile strikes," the British-based Observatory reported.
On Tuesday, Syrian state media said that its air defenses had brought down two Israeli missiles, while a commander in the regional alliance backing Damascus said Israel had hit a Syrian army base without causing casualties.
The IDF declined to comment on the reports, which came shortly after it said it had identified "irregular activity" by Iranian forces in Syria and went onto high alert.
Iran is a major supporter of Syrian President Bashar Assad's military and has deployed Revolutionary Guards forces, along with Shi'ite militia groups from the region, including the Lebanese Hezbollah, to help him in the war.
Israel has repeatedly struck Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria, partly to stop any weapons transfers between them. Iran said an April 9 attack in Syria killed seven of its military personnel and it would retaliate.
 

إيران “التمر من ورق” ترد على الغارات الإسرائيلية بصواريخ حوثية على السعودية
الياس بجاني/09 أيار/18
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انتهت الانتخابات ….بدأت المبارزات
محمد عبد الحميد بيضون/09 أيار/18
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