LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 10/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias
Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/newselias18/english.june10.18.htm
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Bible
Quotations
For where your
treasure is, there will your heart be also
Luke 12/32-48: "32 Don’t be afraid, little flock, for it is your Father’s
good pleasure to give you the Kingdom. Sell that which you have, and give
gifts to the needy. Make for yourselves purses which don’t grow old, a
treasure in the heavens that doesn’t fail, where no thief approaches,
neither moth destroys. For where your treasure is, there will your heart be
also. “Let your waist be dressed and your lamps burning. 36 Be like men
watching for their lord, when he returns from the marriage feast; that, when
he comes and knocks, they may immediately open to him. Blessed are those
servants, whom the lord will find watching when he comes. Most certainly I
tell you, that he will dress himself, and make them recline, and will come
and serve them. They will be blessed if he comes in the second or third
watch, and finds them so. But know this, that if the master of the house
had known in what hour the thief was coming, he would have watched, and not
allowed his house to be broken into. Therefore be ready also, for the Son
of Man is coming in an hour that you don’t expect him.” Peter said to him,
“Lord, are you telling this parable to us, or to everybody?” The Lord said,
“Who then is the faithful and wise steward, whom his lord will set over his
household, to give them their portion of food at the right times? Blessed
is that servant whom his lord will find doing so when he comes. Truly I
tell you, that he will set him over all that he has. But if that servant
says in his heart, ‘My lord delays his coming,’ and begins to beat the
menservants and the maidservants, and to eat and drink, and to be drunken,
46 then the lord of that servant will come in a day when he isn’t expecting
him, and in an hour that he doesn’t know, and will cut him in two, and place
his portion with the unfaithful. That servant, who knew his lord’s will,
and didn’t prepare, nor do what he wanted, will be beaten with many stripes,
but he who didn’t know, and did things worthy of stripes, will be beaten
with few stripes. To whomever much is given, of him will much be required;
and to whom much was entrusted, of him more will be asked."
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources published on June 09-10/18
Lebanon’s mountains are being wiped from the map – but does
anyone care/Robert Fisk/The Independent/June 09/18
Top US, Russian generals fail to agree on Syrian-Israel, Syrian-Jordanian
borders/DEBKAfile/Jun 09/2018
Has Iran sold out Arab Shiites/Sawsan Al Shaer/Al Arabiya/June 09/18
Qatar: A year of dreams undermined/Anwar Gargash/Al Arabiya/June 09/18
Italy: Back from the brink, for a while/Dr. Mohamed A. Ramady/Al Arabiya/June
09/18
Pay Attention to What is Happening between the US and its Traditional
Allies/Robert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/June 09/18
Marching for Terrorism in London? No Problem/Judith Bergman/Gatestone
Institute/June 09/18
Assad is underestimating the obstacles to victory/Sharif Nashashibi/Arab
News/June 09/18
How Trump upset the G7 applecart/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/June 09/18
Titles For The
Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
June 09-10/18
Report: Hariri to Hand Aoun First Govt. Format Following Consultations
Criticism as Bassil Calls to Freeze UNHCR Residency Permits
Report: Hariri Meets Bassil
Lebanon’s mountains are being wiped from the map – but does anyone care?
Geagea says Hezbollah will return from Syria soon, will be more modest
Maronite Patriarch: Officials Acting As If They Own the Country
MP Nadim Gemayel Says Bassil's UNHCR Attack Will Not Divert Attention Away
From Naturalization Decree
TeleLiban to begin transmission of World Cup directly from Russia as of June
14
Sayyed: Any mediation to demarcate borders with Israel is a trap
Jumblatt heads to Saudi Arabia
Sitin by Sabaa, We Association in protest against beach privatization plan
Atallah: Talk about naturalization ends as Bassil's position in face of
resettlement emerges
Hariri meets with Qamareddine, Sakr
Jumblatt: Expropriation of nature in Wadi AlSitt amidst silence of concerned
sides
Sayegh: Druze seats belong to Democratic Gathering, to be named by Jumblatt
Selim Aoun: Our Bloc will accord refugees dossier priority in new government
Titles For Latest LCCC
Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on June 09-10/18
Top US,
Russian generals fail to agree on Syrian-Israel, Syrian-Jordanian borders
Iranian Forces Pose as Syrian Soldiers to Evade Israel, Report Says
Iran’s militias in Syria don Syrian army uniforms to stay on
King Abdullah II and crown prince to attend conference on supporting Jordan
in Makkah
Turkey: US and Turkish troops to patrol Manbij
Daesh militants lose ground in Syria town after major attack: monitor
Rare Tensions between Assad's Backers as Syria's War Unwinds
IS Jihadists Lose Ground in Syria Town after Major Attack
Egyptian Presidential Committee Paves Way for New List to Release Detainees
in Demonstrations
Bombs Rattle Iraq’s Kirkuk, Leaving Casualties
Vienna Considered as Venue for Possible Putin-Trump Summit
Israel Conducts Multi-Front Aerial Exercise
Rouhani Demands Regional Dialogue as Internal Rifts Emerge in Iran
China Hosts Russia, Iran for Summit as US Tensions Rise
Saudi to Host Meeting on Supporting Jordan's Economy
Emergency UN General Assembly Meeting on Gaza Called for Wednesday
Sadr Strengthens Legislative Bloc ahead of Iraq Poll Recount
IS Retakes Parts of Eastern Syria Town in Major Attack
Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
June 09-10/18
Report: Hariri to Hand
Aoun First Govt. Format Following Consultations
Naharnet/June 09/18/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri is expected to meet
with President Michel Aoun over the weekend to assess the developments as
per the formation of the new government after completing consultations, al-Joumhouria
daily reported on Saturday. Two weeks after his designation, “Hariri is set
to present the first government format, a Cabinet comprised of 30 ministers
distributed on various political parties very much similar to the current
caretaker Cabinet,” unnamed sources told the daily. The daily said Hariri is
inclined to keep the foreign affairs and energy portfolios allocated to the
Free Patriotic Movement, the finance portfolio to the AMAL party and the
telecommunications and interior portfolios to al-Mustaqbal Movement. It
added that engineer Hassan Qabbani is nominated to hold the
telecommunications portfolios (instead of Jamal Jarrah), while the interior
ministry could be allocated to Minister Jamal Jarrah or head of the
Mustaqbal electoral campaign, Salim Diab. However, “the health ministry will
not be kept with a minister of the Lebanese Forces,” added the daily, while
the remaining portfolios will be “redistributed” on political parties.
Criticism as Bassil Calls to Freeze UNHCR Residency
Permits
Naharnet/June 09/18/Calls of caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil to
freeze the renewal of residency permits for the staff of the United Nations
refugee agency were criticized on Saturday as a “threat to Lebanon’s ties
with international bodies.”“The Foreign Minister is acting as if the State
is declaring a war of abolition against international organizations,” said
caretaker Minister Marwan Hamadeh. “Bassil is not taking the local
repercussions, Lebanon’s reputation and the expected losses into account
shall the refugees stay in Lebanon and the aid is cut off,” he added.
Hamadeh said Bassil “is launching a new policy towards the return of
displaced Syrians and international organizations as if there is no
government, no new parliament and no agreed criteria between the government
and the committee tasked with the file,” he added. For his part, ex-Minister
Rachid Derbas said that “enmity with the United Nations does not serve the
country. “Positions from the international community is a public policy
adopted by the government, not by a single minister, even if he proves
right. Lebanon has many interests with the United Nations starting with the
UNIFIL forces,” he noted. On Friday, caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran
Bassil ordered a freeze on the renewal of residency permits for the staff of
the United Nations refugee agency, saying it is not encouraging Syrian
refugees to return home. Bassil said in a statement from his office that
UNHCR is scaring Syrian refugees in Lebanon from returning by asking them
about compulsory military service, security conditions and whether they have
a place to live.
Report: Hariri Meets Bassil
Naharnet/June 09/18/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri reportedly received
caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil on Friday, who stressed “the need
to include all political components to reflect their parliamentary
representation,” al-Joumhouria daily reported on Saturday. Bassil said the
“Lebanese Forces must be justly represented in the Cabinet,” reiterating his
calls to allocate “Cabinet shares for the minority of the Syriac and
Alawites.” Hariri has been tasked with forming a Cabinet -- typically a
drawn-out process involving horse-trading among Lebanon's competing
political forces over ministerial portfolios. The Lebanese Forces and Free
Patriotic Movement are in disagreement over the share of the President in
the Cabinet. The Druze share has also raised conflict between the
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jubmlat and Lebanese Democratic
Party head MP Talal Arslan. Jumblat argues that the whole 3-seat Druze share
in the Cabinet should be allocated to the PSP.
Lebanon’s mountains are being wiped from the map – but does anyone care?
روبرت فيسك من الإندبندت: جبال لبنان تزال عن الخريطة..ولكن هل هناك من يهتم
بهذا الأمر؟
Robert Fisk/The Independent/June 09/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/65220/robert-fisk-lebanons-mountains-are-being-wiped-from-the-map-but-does-anyone-care-%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%aa-%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%b3%d9%83-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%86%d8%af%d8%a8/
‘We had a court order for the quarries to
stop but after five days the trucks came back and the local police
facilitated them’
Rarely are journalists lost for words. But how do you describe the
destruction of entire mountains, the slashing down of tens of thousands of
pine trees, the very shape of the landscape changed by more than 3,000
quarries which have ripped apart the geography of Lebanon and made a new map
of its blessed and ancient land – the Massacre of the Mountains?
Is that good enough for a story which should shock the world if it occurred
in Europe or America? I call it the Castration of Lebanon. Its fruits are
dirt and crumbled rock and contaminated lakes.
The tops of entire mountainsides – millions of tons of sand and rock – have
been ripped away by diggers, excavators and bulldozers to provide concrete
for Beirut’s canyons of grotesque high-rise apartments: for its villas and
gated city suburbs and the Lebanese Mediterranean coastal hotels.
Greed, corruption, poverty and a shameful, selfish, confessional government
are to blame. Even now, as Lebanon’s sectarian parties fight for seats in a
new cabinet, their nation is being physically torn apart. All they need to
do is pass a law – just one piece of legislation – to stop this anarchy.
“Your Lebanon is a political knot, a national dilemma, a place of conflict
and deception,” the nation’s most famous poet, Khalil Gibran, wrote in
despair of his country almost a hundred years ago. “My Lebanon is a place of
beauty and dreams of enchanting valleys and splendid mountains….Your Lebanon
is empty and fleeting, whereas my Lebanon will endure forever.”
Not any more.
Come with me to Mayrouba, high on a mountain above Bikfaya, where Elias
Saadeh stands on a plateau of mud and broken rock and roads – government
highways – which end suddenly in sheer 500-foot chasms of stone, carved and
hacked at by giant cranes and stone cutters whose claws have grooved out the
inside of these mountains. Ridges, valleys and watercourses have
disappeared.
“There is not a building in the ‘new’ Beirut,” Saadeh says cynically, “which
does not have part of Mayrouba in its walls and foundations. They call our
land here ‘gold sand’ – the best you can buy to build apartment blocks, and
it’s the most expensive. But this is crazy.
“More than 120,000 of our pine trees have been cut down. We had thirty water
‘ein’ (wells) – but today we only have two left and they are both polluted.”
Lebanese mountains
The two of us stare out towards mountains we’ve known and looked at for
decades – but the mountains are not there. For this is now a lunar landscape
whose creeping fog and damp winds prove that image reflects reality. We are
looking at a lost land. Why?
“Because the people who did this are not educated,” Elias says. “Because
they only see the dollar. These people make $5,000 a day. They made people
rich, but they remained uneducated. They have never learned how to love
land.
“They don’t give a shit about the nation, about wild life or the environment
– nothing! Now we are going towards desertification.”
Saadeh sounds like a modern-day Gibran. The poet’s body lies scarcely a
hundred miles to the north, sealed into a cave, his tomb weighted down with
chains in case his worshippers try to take his bones. “Splendid mountains”
indeed.
Elias Saadeh’s tale is one of courage and political victory – for the
moment, at least – because he and nine fellow villagers here in the Kesrouan
mountains fought through the presidency and the courts to stop the 500
trucks, night and day, tearing away their forests and mountains. But when I
tell you of his work, beware: the rest of this story is one of ugliness and
tragedy.
The landscape is being further blighted each day and I was soon to watch the
actual destruction of a mountain-top – in front of my very eyes – outside a
small town called Tarshish. No problem, the sand and rock was being taken
for “government projects”, I was told.
But like a tiresome detective, I trailed one of the excavators’ trucks,
packed with sand, down the mountains of Lebanon – and watched its contents
poured into the private construction of a company selling sand to build more
apartments in Beirut. Of which, more anon.
The ten members of Saadeh’s “Save Mayrouba” group say they discovered that
16 companies were quarrying 20 per cent of their village’s area. “They
didn’t buy the land,” he says. “They bought a lease from the government –
even if it was illegal to quarry. So they got permits to ‘clean’ the land!
“They got help from past governments – from ministers of environment,
interior, industry and from the local authority. Our fathers and
grandfathers tried to stop this before us – but then they didn’t have social
media. We had a court order for the quarries to stop but after five days the
trucks came back and the local police facilitated them.
“Then we got an audience with Claudine Aoun, the daughter of President
Michel Aoun. She went to see her father and we had her help to get meetings
with ministers. The problem goes back to 30 years ago when it was
small-scale – but then each new minister wiped out the previous minister’s
laws.”
Elias Saadeh and his friends took action through the courts and the district
judge in Kesrouan stopped the destruction of the mountains around Mayrouba
with a court order. Her ‘cease work’ order of 1st March this year is tied
with string to the mechanical diggers still standing on the blighted hills –
although mud tracks suggest some of the vehicles have been moving in recent
days.
Saadeh has been frightened. “I got phone calls at night during our
campaign,” he says. “People said: ‘We are going to kill you’. They are very
angry. Amazing, isn’t it?
“Lebanon’s fame used to come from its poets – now it’s famous for its
quarries. That’s how Lebanon ‘goes forward’!”
Some of the quarry companies were ordered to replant the trees. Twelve
lopsided bushes on one broken mountain appear to be the response.
The Christian church, primarily Maronite, is the biggest landowner in
Lebanon although the spoliation of the country has been committed across
hundreds of miles, affecting Muslims and Christians alike.
I spent hours driving through Christian villages, their Ottoman stone houses
smothered in bougainvillea and roses, past roadside shrines of the Virgin,
with the Maronites’ own Saint Charbel an optional extra. But when I reached
the heights above, it was the same grim landscape.
Take Tarshish. It stands below a sliced and ravaged mountain that overlooks
– or overlooked – the Bekaa Valley. This week, I watched the trucks carrying
away its sand and stone.
But like so many of those who witness or participate in this catastrophe,
the site manager, Charbel Hayek, was friendly, cheerful, offering coffee and
providing a mobile phone map of how the terrifying hole in the mountain
behind him would be filled with terraces for new vineyards – to grow the
regions’ famous ‘Adyar’ (‘Monasteries’) wine.
But it seemed – like the other ravaged cliffs on the other side of the road
– far too deep for repair with just a few earthen steps of vine trees.
Hayek, who expressed his own sorrow at the blight of quarrying, showed me an
ancient hermit’s stone house – at least this had been preserved – and
insisted that the sand and stone being convoyed out of the mountains was to
be used for “airport projects in Beirut and government projects”.
He worked for the Saint Antonious monastery at Beit Shebab near Bikfaya, he
said. It all seemed simple enough.
But as we left Tarshish, another truck load of sand, partly covered with a
tarpaulin, pulled out of the quarry onto the main road and headed west. And
for three hours, down gorges and up forested hills – and past other quarries
— we followed the big Mercedes lorry. Was it going to the airport? Or a
government building project?
Readers will no doubt follow its trail with the same growing bafflement as
we experienced. For when the truck, driven by a Syrian refugee, eventually
reached the Mediterranean seacoast, it did not turn left towards Beirut but
north, and then, just before the town of Jounieh, up into the low hills
where it made a three-point turn on the main road and arrived at the iron
gates of a 55-year old private construction company.
I ran inside before the gates were closed and watched the driver upend his
truck, the sand from Tarshish spilling to the ground beside tons of other
dirt and rocks.
Its manager, Ramez Estephan, was as polite and obliging as Charbel Hayek. He
bought the sand for “those who mix the concrete” for any kind of
construction. He blamed the government for opaque laws and said he made
little money. He was “upset” by the damage to the mountains. “I don’t buy
the sand, I sell it…I love nature and I live in the middle of nature.”
This is true. Estephan took me to his luxurious home in the mountains for
coffee. A nature reserve is next door with a sign by his own front gate
telling visitors: “Do not cut trees or shrubs.”
Yes, he was upset, Estephan repeated “but can I help to stop it?…the people
want to work, everybody has their own work.”
The concrete was used for housing. “My sand helped build those houses over
there,” he said. “I built these roads.” So much, then, for Hayek’s
government projects.
So I visited the Antonious monastery in Beit Shebab. The priest to whom I
should speak about Tarshish was away, but I was told I might visit Frederic
Cacchia, the monastery’s French wine-maker, several miles away.
Cacchia, a 44-year old from Marseilles with a Lebanese wife, was all
charming and offered a taste of the latest Adyar vintage. He had no control
over quarries but when I asked if the massive excavations at Tarshish could
really be turned into terraced vineyards, he replied with a sigh.
“Not in my opinion,” he said. I returned to Beit Shebab to meet the priest
whom I had been told was in charge of Tarshish.
Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned, then unresigned, last November,
before leading his party into elections in May
Father Badih El Hajj of the Universite Saint Esprit de Kaslik, a music
scholar, was intelligent and again all smiles – coffee provided, as usual –
and agreed with me that the destruction in the mountains was “Catastophique!
Catastrophique!”.
But then Father Badih said that he was not in fact the priest in charge of
the Tarshish area. I would have to speak to Father Maroun in a monastery in
the coastal town of Antelias.
And, of course, off I headed to Antelias and there was Father Maroun Audi.
But, reader spare me, it seemed that while this Father Maroun managed lands
below the heights of Tarshish, the top of the mountain was managed by
another monk of the same name! He was Maroun Chidiac.
No matter. What Maroun Audi, who looks after a cow farm for the monastery,
avocado and apple trees and makes arak, had to say was astonishing.
“In my opinion, after around 10 or 15 years, we won’t have mountains above
sea level more than 1,800 metres in height! I am a monk, but I don’t have
the authority to stop everything. What can I do? All I can do is write a
letter. That’s the maximum.”
And Father Maroun agreed it was “not necessary” to blast away rocks and sand
on top of windblown, cold Tarshish to plant vineyards.
The monk said he had blocked the selling of sand from the area he
controlled, about 500 square metres, until the Lebanese Maronite Order could
make a decision. He agreed that there were some within the church who had no
problem selling sand and rock.
“In the area of Tarshish I control, I want to take out mineral water from
the sand, not the sand itself and I am against this politics of selling
sand… My superior said two years ago that we must not sell the sand. But
maybe another superior will come here after two or three years and will sell
sand. I cannot guarantee this.”There was a big problem in Mayrouba because the church land was owned by
another order.
“Around 40 per cent of Lebanese land is owned by the church, and in the
church there are many properties for families – which they cannot sell but
which we cannot manage. If you go to Tarshish now you will see land of
10,000 square metres – you will say, ‘the church will make a million
dollars’ but the church will take $10,000, $20,000 only. But others will
take most of this.”
I have the impression he has big arguments with his colleagues. “Yes, yes,
yes, I ask about this some days. I ask ‘when will you finish?’ But there is
a big Mafia.”
Ask who ‘the mafia’ is, and Father Maroun becomes very vague indeed. “Maybe
some lawyer comes to the bishop, and he signs it but nobody knows what will
happen after that. You cannot work with this file because it is very, very,
very big.”
Incredibly, the destruction of Lebanon’s mountains has attracted little
interest in the local press and none outside; the last printed article on
Lebanon’s environment in the international media appears to be a story in an
American newspaper last year about dog poo in Beirut.
But the small Beirut French-language paper L’Orient Le Jour carried a
courageous supplement in March which exposed in a detailed analysis and
pictures the awesome damage being done to Lebanon.
Reporter Suzanne Baaklini wrote of how the government closed its eyes to
quarry owners who are “past masters in the art of getting round the law”, of
how a 2007 law on quarrying was passed by the cabinet but never submitted to
parliament, how further legislation was inexplicably delayed in 2012 and
disappeared when the Beirut cabinet fell the following year.
It seems, Baaklini concluded, that “pressures were exercised in the shadows
to keep the ‘quarry’ legislation at the bottom of the pile [in the
government].”
Everyone, the quarries, the priests, the villagers share one thing in
common: their condemnation of the government. And the only man who can
conceivably halt the despoliation of his country is the new prime minister
designate Saad Hariri, son of the former premier Rafiq Hariri who was
assassinated in 2005.
However, a former MP for Saad’s parliamentary party, Mustafa Alloush,
recalled for me how “when Rafiq Hariri [a Sunni Muslim] tried to enforce
quarry licences, the Christians claimed he was trying to break Christian
power.”That’s sectarian Lebanon for you. But if Rafiq’s son Saad – a Sunni, too, of
course – can enforce laws to stop his nation’s physical destruction, he will
become one of Lebanon’s great prime ministers. By then, of course, it may be
too late.
Geagea says Hezbollah will return from Syria soon, will
be more modest
Sat 09 Jun 2018/NNA - Lebanese Forces Party Chief Samir Geagea said Saturday
that Hezbollah will return to Lebanon soon and will be more modest.
In an interview with 'Al-Modon" electronic newspaper, Geagea ruled out any
reflection on the internal scene of this return, saying, "Even if Hezbollah
claimed victory, the reality on the ground is known...The State was not the
one to ask Hezbollah to go to Syria and therefore, it will not be rewarded."
Moreover, Geagea deemed that Hezbollah "is undergoing a decisive
transformation in its history by entering into the heart of the internal
equation in all its details, from proposing multiple dossiers such as
combating corruption to other matters, which indicates that the Party wants
to integrate more Lebanese-wise."
"If Hezbollah is serious in bringing up the fight against corruption, we
will cooperate with it," he added. Geagea stressed that the current mandate
must receive full support in order to ensure its success, because it is a
unique opportunity for the Lebanese in light of the consensus and enthusiasm
of all parties to combat corruption. He confirmed herein his adherence to
the Me'rab Understanding and to the good relationship with President Michel
Aoun, adding that efforts will continue to stabilize the relationship with
the Free Patriotic Movement. Over the new cabinet formation, Geagea
considered that the upcoming government "must be new in every sense, with
new faces, working for the benefit of citizens and not politicians." He
called for a government consisting of 24 ministers in an effort to cut down
on waste expenditure, while reiterating attachment to his Party's demand for
rotation in distribution of ministerial portfolios. At the regional level,
the LF Party Chief considered the transformation witnessed in the region and
the Islamic world, in particular, as "not only political, but an
evolutionary era that will produce a renaissance similar to the Christian
Renaissance." "We will see a real Islam different from the image that has
been portrayed over the past years, and what is happening in Saudi Arabia is
a major development, and a progress that will cast its positive shadow on
the entire world," Geagea asserted. In response to a question on whether the
next stage will witness normalization with the Syrian regime, Geagea said,
"There is no regime in Syria, the equation is international. We want
normalization and reform of relations with all of Syria and not one part of
the Syrian people." Asked about normalization with the Syrian regime from
the refugees' return perspective, he stressed that "it is impossible to
normalize with this regime...It is the one to have caused their displacement
and does not desire their return...Lebanon will not normalize relations with
a regime that does not exist...We want normalization with Syria in full."
Geagea concluded by expressing optimism regarding the next stage, referring
to "a new and serious start with the Future Movement as an ally, and with
all other forces." "It shall be a new phase indeed, during which
coordination in all files shall be strengthened," he underscored.
Maronite Patriarch: Officials Acting As If They Own the
Country
Kataeb.org/Saturday 09th June 2018/Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi on
Saturday voiced resentment over the prevailing deception and lying, saying
that all forms of dishonesty trickery and concealment of truth have become
permissible. "What hurts our people is the behavior of the officials who are
acting as if the state, its land, funds, institutions and nationality,
belongs to them," Al-Rahi said. "Citizens have the right to worry about, not
only their own fate and that of their families and children, but also the
fate of their nation as they are seeing some tampering with the country,
seeking petty personal interests and turning a blind eye to the threatening
dangers," he added.
MP Nadim Gemayel Says Bassil's UNHCR Attack Will Not
Divert Attention Away From Naturalization Decree
Kataeb.orgSaturday 09th June 2018/Kataeb MP Nadim Gemayel on Saturday deemed
the measure taken by caretaker FM Gebran Bassil against the United Nations
High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) as a mere attempt to cover up the
"grave mistake" of the naturalization decree, saying that the hype that
Bassil had stirred regarding the UNHCR issue will pass by faster than he
expected. "Attention will be focused again on the naturalization decree
given that it is the most dangerous file being dealt with at the present
time," Gemayel said in an interview on Future TV.
"The refugee crisis cannot be solved by attacking the UNHCR. Any solution
must be objective and serious," he said. "Is anyone really working on
getting the refugees back to their country or is it just about slogans and
empty talk? What has Bassil done about Syria's new property law whose
repercussions are very negative?" Gemayel asked. "Taking into consideration
that the Syrian regime is an ally of Bassil, why haven't negotiations been
launched to reach a solution that would secure the refugees' return?"Gemayel
stressed that Bassil should devise a clear refugee plan instead of attacking
the UNHCR, wondering what he had done over the past six years to address
this issue. Regarding the ongoing coordination between the Kataeb,
Progressive Socialist Party and Lebanese Forces on the naturalization decree
issue, Gemayel pointed out that all of the three parties are keen to defend
Lebanon's identity, noting that it this not a political alliance that covers
all files. “Any naturalization decree should take into account the laws and
must be issued according to special standards. It is surprising that most of
those listed in the decree are either rich or linked to the Syrian regime,”
he said. “The biggest problem is that no scrutiny and investigation had been
carried out prior to the issuance of the decree. It is not the citizens’
responsibility to provide the authorities with information on the people
included in the naturalization decree,” Gemayel concluded.
TeleLiban to begin transmission of World Cup directly
from Russia as of June 14
Sat 09 Jun 2018/NNA - The Lebanese Television Station declared Saturday that
it would begin its transmission of the World Cup tournaments directly from
Russia starting June 14, 2018, as per the agreement between the Lebanese
State and "Sama" Company, which has exclusive rights to broadcasting the
event in Lebanon. Accordingly, the Station indicated that viewers can tune
to "Tele-Liban" via its satellite stations across the Lebanese territories
through internal or external image pickup frequencies, as well as through
cable networks and cable companies licensed to connect them to the Station
free of charge. However, the Lebanese Television stated that cafes,
restaurants and public places are not covered by the aforementioned
agreement.
Sayyed: Any mediation to demarcate borders with Israel
is a trap
Sat 09 Jun 2018/NNA - Major General, MP Jamil el-Sayyed, referred Saturday
through his Twitter account to the United States' mediation to demarcate the
borders by land and sea between Lebanon and Israel, including Shebaa farms,
considering it a "trap". "If Lebanon accepts such mediation, it will imply
that Lebanon doubts its international borders with Israel...As for the
borders of Shebaa farms, they are between Lebanon and Syria, not between
Lebanon and Israel...!" exclaimed el-Sayyed.
Jumblatt heads to Saudi Arabia
Sat 09 Jun 2018/NNA - Progressive Socialist Party Chief Walid Jumblatt left
Beirut this afternoon on board a private jet heading to the Saudi Kingdom,
accompanied by MPs Taymor Jumblatt and Wael Abu Faour.
Sitin by Sabaa, We Association in protest against beach
privatization plan
Sat 09 Jun 2018/NNA -The "Seven Party" (Sabaa) and "We" Association staged a
sit-in this morning in front of the Municipality of Beirut and the
Governor's Center "to confront the beach privatization scheme," in presence
of other civil society groups.
In a joint statement, the protesters stressed that "beaches in all countries
of the world and in Lebanon are the property of citizens, and therefore, it
is their right to restore the ownership of the Lebanese coast." The
statement considered that "the legal tricks to cover the illegal acts are no
longer useful," calling for "bold steps to eliminate all irregularities
affecting the Lebanese coast." "Our program gives priority to restoring the
shore and re-connecting it to the cities and rendering it at the disposal on
citizens," the statement concluded.
Atallah: Talk about naturalization ends as Bassil's
position in face of resettlement emerges
Sat 09 Jun 2018/NNA - MP George Atallah said via his Twitter account on
Saturday that "the wide circle of talks on naturalization has come to an
end, as the sovereign position of Caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil
has emerged to confront the settlement of refugees through action and not
words."
Hariri meets with Qamareddine, Sakr
Sat 09 Jun 2018/NNA - Prime Minister Saad Hariri met Saturday afternoon at
the Grand Serail with Tripoli Mayor Ahmad Qamareddine. He later welcomed
former Chairman of the Arab Parliament Mohammad Jassim al-Saqr, with
discussions focusing on domestic and regional matters.
Jumblatt: Expropriation of nature in Wadi AlSitt amidst silence of concerned
sides
Sat 09 Jun 2018/NNA - Progressive Socialist Party Chief Walid Jumblatt said
via his Twitter account on Saturday that "nature is being expropriated in
the area of Wadi Al-Sitt in the Shouf region, amidst the silence of the
Forests Bureau and the concerned authorities." Jumblatt attached a photo of
the place in question to his criticizing tweet.
Sayegh: Druze seats belong to Democratic Gathering, to
be named by Jumblatt
Sat 09 Jun 2018/NNA - "Democratic Gathering" Member, MP Faisal al-Sayegh,
said in a statement Saturday that certain newspapers have published this
morning the first draft of the new cabinet's formation, listing the
distribution of portfolios among the different political forces and blocs
while missing out on the Democratic Gathering. Sayegh stressed herein that
"while the published draft stated three seats for the Druze, it is worth
noting that said seats belong to the Democratic Gathering and will be named
by former MP Walid Jumblatt."
Selim Aoun: Our Bloc will accord refugees dossier
priority in new government
Sat 09 Jun 2018/NNA - "Strong Lebanon" Parliamentary Bloc Member, MP Selim
Aoun, stated Saturday that his Bloc would give priority to the Syrian
refugees file in the upcoming cabinet. "We have reached a red line in the
Syrian refugees dossier and Lebanon cannot wait any longer for this issue to
be resolved," said Aoun in an interview to "Radio Free Lebanon" this
morning, calling on the international community "to put an end to this crime
against Lebanon." He stressed that through Caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran
Bassil's recent decision in this respect, Bassil has sent a message to the
international community through the Higher Refugees Commission to find a
quick solution to this problem, especially that "the UNHCR is urging the
displaced not to return home, triggering their fears through organized tours
to this effect." Aoun demanded those who are criticizing the decision of
Bassil to provide an alternative solution to this dossier. Over possible
repercussions of said this decision on the relationship with the
international community, Aoun stressed, "Good relations with other countries
are important, but the interest of Lebanon remains the most important."
Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News
published
on June 09-10/18
Top US, Russian
generals fail to agree on Syrian-Israel, Syrian-Jordanian borders
DEBKAfile/Jun 09/2018
At issue is the presence of Hizballah and other pro-Iranian units in growing
numbers – disguised as Syrian troops – opposite Israel’s borders,
DEBKAfile’s exclusive sources report. Under the command of Iranian Gen.
Qassem Soleimani, these units are being “absorbed” into the Syrian army as a
ploy for supporting claims by Damascus and Tehran that no Iranian troops are
present in Syria at all – only “Iranian military advisers.” Russian officers
posted in Syria were apparently told not to interfere in this process.
Our military sources find Hizballah units deployed at the Mt. Hermon border
town of Al Khadar opposite Israeli outposts, and the pro-Iranian Afghan
Shiite militia (Liwa Ahu Fadi al-Abbas) positioned around Qunetra opposite
Israel’s Golan border, under the command of Iranian Revolutionary Guards
IRGC) officers. These Hizballah troops are clad in the uniforms of the
Syrian army’s 4th and 5th Syrian divisions, while the Afghan militiamen are
wearing the uniforms, boasting the insignia, and driving the vehicles, some
armored, of the Syrian presidential Republican Guard.
These details expand on DEBKAfile’s first exclusive disclosure of this trick
disguise. We broke the story on May 31, a few hours before Defense Minister
Avigdor Lieberman was due to meet his Russian counterpart Gen. Sergei Shoigu
in Moscow. We revealed then for the first time that Iranian IRGC and
Hizballah units in the regions of Quneitra, the Daraa border with Jordan,
and Mt. Hermon were all clad in Syrian army uniforms. This subterfuge was
intended to dodge around Israel’s flat objections to their presence in its
back yard. Moscow hoped that Washington would buy it.
On Saturday, June 9, the Wall Street Journal repeated DEBKAfile’s discovery
of Hizballah fighters disguised as Syrian troops nearing Israel’s border.
The report came after the meeting on Friday, June 8, between Gen. Joseph
Danford, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Russian General Staff
chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov in Helsinki. The two generals discussed their
respective military arrays in Syria, the situation in the de-escalation
zones along its borders with Jordan and Israel and the military situation in
Ukraine. No communique was issued after the meeting. DEBKAfile discloses,
however, that Gen. Danford showed Gen. Shoigu the intelligence he had
received about the Syrian uniform con practiced by Syria and Iran to pretend
that the pro-Iranian troops taking up positions along Syrian’s southwestern
borders were part of the Syrian army. According to our information, the two
generals parted without reaching a consensus on the military situation in
Syria, especially for those border regions.
Iranian Forces Pose as
Syrian Soldiers to Evade Israel, Report Says
Haaretz/June
09/2018/Iran-backed militias return to Israel-Syria border in Assad regime
vehicles, Wall Street Journal says. Last week, Russia, Israel reportedly
agreed to remove Iranian forces from border. Iran-allied militias along the
Israeli-Syrian border are dressing up Syrian military uniforms to avoid the
attention of Israel's air force, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
According to rebels, the Syrian regime is disguising convoys of Lebanese
Hezbollah fighters and other Iran-backed militias as its own fighters, to
avoid further Israeli airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria. After
initially appearing to withdraw from the border, forces loyal to Iran
returned to both Daraa and Quneitra provinces in southwest Syria, near the
border with Israel, with rockets and missiles, a rebel commander said. “It’s
a camouflage,” said Ahmad Azam, a commander with the rebel Salvation Army, a
group based in Quneitra. “They are leaving in their Hezbollah uniform and
they are returning in regime vehicles and dressed in regular [Syrian] army
uniforms,” Azam said, adding that many of the foreign fighters in Syria had
received ID cards of dead Syrian fighters. Last week it was reported that
Israel and Russia agreed to remove Iranian forces from southern Syria and
let Israel freely attack targets that endanger its security in Syria, on
condition that the sites are not tied to Syrian President Bashar Assad. But
a senior Israeli official denied reports that Israel and Russia had reached
a deal to see Iranian forces pulled out of southern Syria. "There is no room
for any Iranian military presence in any part of Syria," Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu told the Knesset last week. Iran's Gen. Masoud Jazayeri
also denied reports of an Iranian withdrawal from the border. "The U.S. and
Israel are making desperate attempts to change the situation at the border.
They need to know that it's not going to happen," he said, adding that "the
Zionist regime's greatest fear is the presence of Muslim fighters near the
border. It has come to pass."
Iran’s militias in
Syria don Syrian army uniforms to stay on
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 9 June 2018/In a calculated move
to guarantee the presence of Iranian-backed militias in Syria without any
frictions with the Israeli forces on its border, the Bashar al-Assad regime
is disguising them in Syrian uniforms. This is calculated at avoiding
further Israeli air strikes against Iranian targets in Syria, according to a
report published on Saturday by the Wall Street Journal. Israel, who said
earlier it will not allow forces loyal to Iran to take positions near the
Golan Heights, is monitoring its border in anticipation of any military
attack by the Syrian regime forces and its allies on fighters in southwest
Syria. The American newspaper added in its report that military convoys from
Hezbollah militia and other Iranian-backed militias disguised in Syrian army
uniforms under the Syrian flag have returned to both Daraa and al-Quneitra
governorates in southwest Syria near the Golan Heights which is under the
control of Israel. A military source in the Syrian opposition said that the
military convoy was equipped with rockets and missiles.
Using identities of deceased soldiers
Ahmed Azzam, commander of the opposition Salvation Army in al-Quneitra said:
“The militias leave and then return in camouflage…They leave wearing
Hezbollah military uniform and return in the Syrian regime vehicles wearing
its uniforms.”He added that many of the fighters from Lebanon, Iran, Iraq
and Afghanistan have obtained Syrian identity documents, while another
military commander said these IDs belonged to men who died in combat during
the past years. Also Dia Hariri, an anti-regime activist from Daraa,
stressed that Hezbollah and Iran have for years worked to establish
themselves in the Syrian south, saying: “I do not think that Iran is ready
to leave without a war after all these efforts within Syria.”
King Abdullah II and
crown prince to attend conference on supporting Jordan in Makkah
Arab News/June 09/18/ King Abdullah II emphasised the strength of the
relationship between Jordan and countries participating in the meeting that
will be held in Makkah on Sunday. Saudi Arabia said it will host a meeting
among several Gulf Arab countries on June 10 to offer support to Jordan
after mass protests took over the capital due to economic problems and its
plans to tax its citizens.
LONDON: Jordan's King Abdullah II and Crown
Prince Hussein bin Abdullah will attend a conference on supporting Jordan in
Makkah on Sunday, Al-Arabiya reported Saturday. The Jordanian king expressed
his appreciation for the offer made by Saudi Arabia's King Salman to host
the meeting in Makkah. King Abdullah II also emphasised the strength of the
relationship between Jordan and countries participating in the meeting that
will be held in Makkah on Sunday. Jordan's parliament speaker Atef Tarawneh
emphasized the importance of Saudi Arabian support and said that it will
bring Jordan out of the economic crisis that it is currently experiencing.
Saudi Arabia said it will host a meeting among several Gulf Arab countries
on June 10 to offer support to Jordan after mass protests took over the
capital due to economic problems and its plans to tax its citizens, Saudi
state-news channel Al-Ekhbariya reported. A statement early Saturday on the
state-run Saudi Press Agency said the meeting would “discuss means of
supporting Jordan to overcome its current crisis.”The announcement came
after Saudi Arabia’s King Salman held phone conversations with Jordan’s King
Abdullah II, Kuwait’s Sheikh Sabah Al-Sabah and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Zayed.
Turkey: US and Turkish troops to patrol Manbij
Arab News/June 09/18/ Turkey has repeatedly called on the US to stop
backing the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, which it
considers terrorists
Speaking in Brussels after a NATO summit late Friday, Defense Minister
Nurettin Canikli said he met his American counterpart James Mattis
ISTANBUL: Turkey’s defense minister says Turkish and US soldiers will patrol
the key northern Syrian town of Manbij as part of a deal reached this week
for the withdrawal of a Syrian Kurdish militia. Speaking in Brussels after a
NATO summit late Friday, Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli said he met his
American counterpart James Mattis. “We had a very detailed, constructive and
positive meeting on the Manbij roadmap,” he said. Turkey has repeatedly
called on the US to stop backing the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection
Units, or YPG, which it considers terrorists and an extension of a Kurdish
insurgency within its own borders. The US-backed force has been instrumental
in fighting the Daesh group and pushing them out of northern Syria,
including in Manbij.
Canikli’s comments were carried by Turkey’s official Anadolu news agency.
Daesh militants lose ground in Syria town after major attack: monitor
Arab News/June 09/18 Violent clashes were ongoing in Albu Kamal, which lies
in the Euphrates Valley in eastern Syria
On Friday, Daesh used at least 10 suicide bombers in its offensive on Albu
Kamal, swiftly taking several of its neighborhoods
BEIRUT: Daesh had lost ground Saturday in a town on the Syrian-Iraqi border
after pro-regime forces repelled a major attack the day before, a
Britain-based monitor said. Violent clashes were ongoing in Albu Kamal,
which lies in the Euphrates Valley in eastern Syria, the Syrian Observatory
for Human Rights monitoring group said. “Daesh has retreated from inside the
town to its western and northwestern parts” after pro-regime forces pushed
back the extremists, Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman said. Pro-government
reinforcements had arrived, he said.
On Friday, Daesh used at least 10 suicide bombers in its offensive on Albu
Kamal, swiftly taking several of its neighborhoods, the monitor said. It was
the biggest attack on the town since the terrorist group lost it in November
2017, and the latest in a string of attacks by Daesh across Syria.
Neither Syrian state media nor the army reported Friday’s attack on Albu
Kamal. The fighting in the town over the past 24 hours has killed 30
pro-regime fighters, the Observatory said. These include 16 regime troops
among them a general, as well as 14 non-Syrian combattants, notably Iranians
and Lebanese Hezbollah movement fighters, the monitor said. Twenty-one Daesh
terrorists were also killed in that same period, including the 10 suicide
bombers, according to the same source. Daesh has ramped up its attacks
against pro-regime forces since its fighters in May left their last bastion
near Damascus under an evacuation deal with the regime. Daesh in 2014
proclaimed a cross-border “caliphate” in Syria and neighboring Iraq, but has
since lost most of its territory to various military offensives. Its
presence is mostly confined to pockets of eastern Syria in the vast desert
stretching from the country’s center to the border with Iraq. Earlier this
week, Daesh assaults in the eastern province of Deir Ezzor killed 45
pro-regime fighters. On Thursday, Daesh terrorists also killed 22 pro-regime
fighters in surprise attacks in the southern province of Sweida, a monitor
said.
Rare Tensions between
Assad's Backers as Syria's War Unwinds
Associated Press/Naharnet/June 09/18/A Russian force deployment on the
Syria-Lebanon border this week in a Hizbullah stronghold sparked protests by
the Lebanese militant group, prompting the force to withdraw from its
positions only a day later in a rare sign of tension between the allies.
The Russian move was not expected as Moscow's military police have been
deploying in areas controlled by Syrian government forces and close to
insurgent positions. The outskirts of the Syrian town of Qusair where the
Russian troops set up three observation positions on Monday have been held
by Hizbullah and Syrian troops since 2013, when they drove rebels from the
area. The Russian deployment and subsequent withdrawal shows that as rebels
are being defeated in different parts of Syria, frictions could rise between
Assad's main foreign backers — Russia and Iran — and the militias Tehran
backs throughout Syria. "They came and deployed without coordination," said
an official with the so-called "Axis of Resistance" led by Iran, which
includes Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and other groups fighting alongside
President Bashar Assad's forces. "It's better if they don't come back. There
is no work for them there. There is no Daesh or any other terrorist
organization," the official said, referring to the Islamic State group and
other insurgents that the Syrian government and its allies call terrorist
organizations. "What do they want to observe?" he asked. Asked if there is
tension between Hizbullah and Russian troops, the official refused to
comment, speaking to the Associated Press by telephone from Syria on
condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief reporters. He
said that after the Russian troops left, Syrian forces belonging to the
army's 11th Division replaced them. In 2013, Hizbullah openly joined the
Syrian civil war along with Assad's forces capturing the then rebel
stronghold of Qusair in June that year after losing dozens of its
battle-hardened fighters. The Russian deployment outside Qusair came after
Israeli warplanes struck the nearby Dabaa air base on May 24, according to
Syrian activists who said Hizbullah arms depots were hit. There was no word
on casualties. The Israeli military is believed to be behind dozens of
airstrikes in recent years against Hizbullah, Iran, and Syrian military
positions. The U.S. and Israeli governments have viewed Iran's role in Syria
as a threat to Israel and have threatened action.
Although there have been no reports of frictions between Russian and Iranian
or Iran-backed fighters in Syria, calls for Tehran to end its military
presence in Syria have been on the rise in recent weeks.
At a meeting with Assad, who visited the Russian city of Sochi last month,
Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that a political settlement in Syria
should encourage foreign countries to withdraw their troops. Putin's envoy
for Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, later commented that the Russian leader's
statement was aimed at the United States and Turkey, along with Iran and
Hizbullah. It marked a rare instance in which Moscow suggested Iran should
not maintain a permanent military presence in the country. U.S. Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo issued a list of demands last month for a new nuclear deal
with Iran, including the pullout of its forces from Syria. Israel has also
warned it will not accept a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria.
Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mikdad however has said on Russia's
Sputnik news agency that "this topic is not even on the agenda of
discussion, since it concerns the sovereignty of Syria."A top Iranian
security official said that Tehran will maintain an advisory role in Syria
and continue to support "resistance groups." The secretary of Iran's Supreme
National Security Council Ali Shamkhani meanwhile told Al-Jazeera TV that as
long as Syria faces a "terrorist" threat and Damascus requests its presence,
"we will stay in Syria."And for his part, Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah said in a speech Friday that "if the whole world tried to impose
on us a withdrawal from Syria they will not be able to make us leave,"
adding that his group would only leave at the request of the Syrian
government.
The tensions come amid escalation in the country's southwest near the border
with Israel, where in early May Iran struck Israeli positions in the Golan
Heights in retaliation for repeated airstrikes in Syria. On May 10, Israel
unleashed a heavy bombardment against what it said were Iranian military
installations in Syria. It said it was retaliation for an Iranian rocket
barrage on its positions in the Golan. It was the most serious military
confrontation between the two bitter enemies to date. Israel has been mostly
using Lebanon's airspace to strike targets inside Syria in an apparent move
to avoid any conflict with Russia's warplanes that fly over Syria. Russia
has a major air base near Syria's coast from where warplanes have been
taking off to strike at insurgents throughout Syria. "There is an increasing
evidence that shows that Russia has turned a blind eye to Israel's airstrike
in Syria against Iran's military presence," said Fawaz Gerges, professor of
Middle Eastern politics at the London School of Economics. "This is a direct
message that Russia does not want Iran to have a hegemonic position in
Syria."Russia and Iran have been the main backers of Assad but Moscow also
has close relations with Israel whose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
visited Russia several times over the past two years. On one trip last
month, he stood close to Putin while attending a massive parade for Russian
troops marking victory in World War II.
Russia has been reportedly mediating for Iranian troops and Hizbullah
fighters to withdraw from areas close to the Israeli border where Syrian
troops are expected to launch an offensive against rebels. "What happens
after is not Russia's problem: Iran will fight Israel for centuries.
Netanyahu won't be satisfied with Iran's exit from south-west Syria, he
needs an Iran-free Syria, which is impossible now or ever," said Maxim
Suchkov, who edits Russia-Middle East coverage at online news website
Al-Monitor and sits on the Russian International Affairs Council. "Neither
Russia, nor anyone can ensure that."Since September 2015, Assad's forces
have been making strong gains on the ground against insurgents thanks to
Russian air cover and ground forces mostly made up of Iran-backed fighters
from Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan. Assad now controls more than half of
Syria's territories including the largest four cities. Russian troops don't
appear to be leaving Syria, home to their only naval base outside the former
Soviet Union, any time soon. The Russian parliament voted in December to
extend Russia's lease of the naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus for 49
years, following Vladimir Putin's announcement of a partial pullout of
Russian troops from the war-torn country. "In the past three years, Russian
and Iranian influence converged in Syria. They wanted to rescue the Assad
regime," Gerges said. "Now that we are witnessing the beginning of the end
of the military phase, we are witnessing divergence of interest between
Russia and Iran."
IS Jihadists Lose Ground in Syria Town after Major Attack
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 09/18/The Islamic State group had lost
ground Saturday in a town on the Syrian-Iraqi border after pro-regime forces
repelled a major attack the day before, a Britain-based monitor said.
Violent clashes were ongoing in Albu Kamal, which lies in the Euphrates
Valley in eastern Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring
group said. "IS has retreated from inside the town to its western and
northwestern parts" after pro-regime forces pushed back the jihadists,
Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman said. Pro-government reinforcements had
arrived, he said. On Friday, IS used at least 10 suicide bombers in its
offensive on Albu Kamal, swiftly taking several of its neighbourhoods, the
monitor said. It was the biggest attack on the town since the jihadist group
lost it in November 2017, and the latest in a string of attacks by IS across
Syria. Neither Syrian state media nor the army reported Friday's attack on
Albu Kamal. The fighting in the town over the past 24 hours has killed 30
pro-regime fighters, the Observatory said. These include 16 regime troops
among them a general, as well as 14 non-Syrian combattants, notably Iranians
and Lebanese Hezbollah movement fighters, the monitor said. Twenty-one IS
jihadists were also killed in that same period, including the 10 suicide
bombers, according to the same source. IS has ramped up its attacks against
pro-regime forces since its fighters in May left their last bastion near
Damascus under an evacuation deal with the regime. IS in 2014 proclaimed a
cross-border "caliphate" in Syria and neighbouring Iraq, but has since lost
most of its territory to various military offensives. Its presence is mostly
confined to pockets of eastern Syria in the vast desert stretching from the
country's centre to the border with Iraq. Earlier this week, IS assaults in
the eastern province of Deir Ezzor killed 45 pro-regime fighters. On
Thursday, IS jihadists also killed 22 pro-regime fighters in surprise
attacks in the southern province of Sweida, a monitor said.
Egyptian Presidential
Committee Paves Way for New List to Release Detainees in Demonstrations
Cairo- Asharq Al Awsat/Saturday, 9 June, 2018/Egypt’s Presidential Pardon
Committee, founded by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in 2016, is paving the
way to issue a new list to release youth detained in the events that
followed the January 25 revolution. Committee Member Tareq al-Khawli told
Asharq Al-Awsat that the committee will start receiving preparation
applications for the fifth list of detainees in protest cases within days.
“The new list comes as a continuation of the efforts of the Amnesty
Committee for those who did not commit violence or did not violate the
Demonstration Law,” Khawli said. “It is a continuation of the president's
initiative to issue amnesties for youth imprisoned in these cases in order
to ensure their future and their integration into the society.”The
Presidential Pardon Committee continues its meetings to prepare for the
fifth list and receive its names through the Parliament, the National
Council for Human Rights, human rights organizations and citizens through
the Committee's website. "The committee excludes people from the release
lists, who are convicted of misdemeanors involving the government,
explosives and bribery, fraud crimes, offenses related to the disruption of
transport, offenses under the Weapons and Ammunition Act, drug offenses and
trafficking, and crimes stipulated by the construction law,” observers said.
Notably, the presidential pardon committee issued four lists before. The
first list was in November 2016, when 82 prisoners were released, the second
was in March 2017, when 203 were released, the third was in June 2017, when
283 were released and finally the fourth in May 2018, when 332 detainees
were released. In October 2016, President Sisi announced the formation of a
presidential pardon committee, headed by political thinker Osama al-Ghazaly
Harb, for pardoning detainees with charges pending further investigation.
Article 155 of the Egyptian constitution gives the president the power to
pardon or commute the sentence of prisoners following consultations with the
Cabinet. This happens only in case their offenses do not include violence or
attacks on public or security properties. The pardon usually takes place
during official and religious holidays.
Bombs Rattle Iraq’s Kirkuk, Leaving Casualties
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 9 June, 2018/An Iraqi security official said
Saturday that three bombs have exploded in the northern oil city of Kirkuk,
killing a woman. Brig. Gen. Ali Kamal said the blasts occurred late Friday
night in three different places. The blast in al-Quds street in central
Kirkuk occurred in the evening at a peak shopping time in the month of
Ramadan, killing the woman and wounding 18 others. He added that the other
two explosions did not inflict any casualties. It was not clear who was
behind the blasts but the oil-rich city was targeted in the past in attacks
carried out by ISIS extremist group. Also Friday, the Iraqi Interior
Ministry released a statement thanking cleric Moqtada al-Sadr for his call
for a nationwide disarmament campaign. It said the ministry is going ahead
with its plans to preserve the security and safety of Iraqi citizens and
confront justly the proliferation of illegitimate weapons across Iraq.
Vienna Considered as Venue for Possible Putin-Trump Summit
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 9 June, 2018/Vienna is one of the cities being
considered as the venue for a possible summit between Russian President
Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump, the Kremlin said on
Saturday. Putin said last month that the proposed summit between him and
Trump was not working out for now and was beset by problems. Trump said in
March that the two leaders would meet soon, but since then already poor ties
between Washington and Moscow have deteriorated further over the conflict in
Syria and the poisoning of a former Russian spy in Britain. Kremlin
spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Saturday that Putin and Trump
discussed the prospects for their meeting in a March phone call and talked
about locations, with Vienna as a possibility. Speaking in Qingdao in China
where Putin is attending a regional summit, Peskov noted that "there have
been no concrete agreements or understandings, and no specific discussions
are being conducted now." Peskov added the issue also came up for discussion
during Putin's talks with Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz earlier this
week, but he emphasized that Russia and the US first need to come to an
agreement.
Israel Conducts Multi-Front Aerial Exercise
Tel Aviv- Asharq Al Awsat/Saturday, 9 June, 2018/Israeli air forces
completed on Thursday a week-long military exercise simulating a two-front
aerial campaign on the southern and northern borders, with Israeli jets
battering hundreds of simulated targets. The drill was intended to sharpen
their preparedness for war scenarios on more than one front. Hundreds of
fighter jets and helicopters participated in the drill, taking to the skies
day and night for seven days. During the exercise training for scenarios on
the southern border, which was also intended to enhance air support for
infantry soldiers, dozens of fighter jets practiced for rapid attacks on
hundreds of targets in the Gaza Strip. According to the spokesman for the
Israeli forces, hundreds of soldiers and reservists have been integrated
into the exercises, which continued for five consecutive days and 24 hours.
Military sources said that the latest aircraft, including modern F-35 and
other aircraft that are capable of staying in the air long hours and flying
for long distances, participated in the exercises, hinting at Iran itself
and its locations in Syria, as well as training targets in Lebanon and Gaza
Strip. One of the main goals of these exercises is to be able to “hit a
large number of targets in enemy territories in a short time and in dozens
and hundreds of targets simultaneously, the source added. These maneuvers
were accompanied by many statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and others. The most prominent of these
were the threats made by Netanyahu on Thursday that "Syrian President Bashar
Assad should know that if he attacks Israel, he is no longer immune."
Rouhani Demands Regional Dialogue as Internal Rifts
Emerge in Iran
London - Adil Al-Salmi/Saturday, 9 June, 2018/Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani voiced on Friday a desire to hold regional dialogue to address
solutions to crises, while also criticizing the United States’ “unilateral”
decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal. He made his remarks ahead
of departing to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit where he is set
to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir
Putin and the leaders of India and Pakistan. “I will discuss with the
leaders of these countries current issues related to the nuclear deal. Iran
always believes in resolving complicated regional issues through political
solutions,” he added. He therefore called for regional conferences and
expanding diplomacy “to reach safer and stronger ground.” The US withdrawal
from the nuclear pact in May has sparked heated discussions in Tehran. In a
stance supported by the president and Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif,
some Iranian parties are advocating deepening economic ties with Europe in
wake of the withdrawal in order to exert pressure on the US. Other Iranian
parties are, meanwhile, demanding deepening ties with China and Russia, a
position shared by senior aide to the supreme leader Ali Akbar Velayati and
military commander Yahya Safavi. Rouhani’s departure to Shanghai coincided
with Iran’s commemoration of “Jerusalem Day”. Rallies held on the occasion
were used to launch attacks against head of the Atomic Energy Organization
of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, and the government’s policy in striking the 2015
deal. Local media reported that some demonstrators accused Salehi of
“betraying Iran.”Deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)
Hossein Salami vowed that his country will continue to develop ballistic
missiles, adding: “We can raise our forces to a level that will deter our
enemies from using threatening rhetoric.” Commander of the IRGC Quds Force
Qassem Soleimani, meanwhile, said that regional developments are falling in
Iran’s favor, noting in this regard gains made by “Hezbollah” in Lebanon’s
May parliamentary elections. In Iraq, he stated that the May 12 polls will
lead to the formation of a government that has leanings to Iran. He then
made indirect criticism at internal Iran powers that have opposed his
strategy, saying: “Analysts should be addressing these victories. Why are
some sides making baseless statements?”Moreover, he said that demands by
some nations for containing Tehran’s regional threats “will guarantee
greater victories for Iran.”
China Hosts Russia, Iran for Summit as US Tensions Rise
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 09/18/Chinese President Xi Jinping will
open late Saturday a two-day regional security summit attended by Russia,
Iran and other allies confronting rising tensions with the US over trade and
Washington's withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal. Armoured vans lined
the streets of the coastal city of Qingdao as world leaders arrived Friday
for the 18th annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a
regional security bloc led by China and Russia. Its member states also
include four ex-Soviet Central Asian republics, Pakistan and India. Iran is
an observer member. Authorities emptied an entire oceanside swathe of the
city -- clearing out shopkeepers, residents and day-trippers to make way for
Xi, his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and Iran's President Hassan
Rouhani. Pakistani President Mamnoon Hussain and India's Prime Minister
Narendra Modi will also attend the meeting. The leaders will be addressed by
Xi this evening at an opening banquet from 7.45pm (1145 GMT), according to
the official schedule, before taking in a fireworks display. The SCO meeting
comes after President Donald Trump controversially pulled Washington out of
the 2015 international pact with Iran that placed limits on its nuclear
programme in return for easing economic sanctions. Though not officially on
the agenda, analysts say that one key topic of discussion this year may
focus on whether Iran will be allowed to ascend from its position as an SCO
observer to become a full member state -- a development it has sought since
2008 but has been unable to achieve while subject to UN sanctions. The 2015
nuclear deal lifted that barrier. Now in the wake of the US withdrawal from
the pact, "SCO members may use granting full membership to Iran as a way to
demonstrate support for (Tehran) and the nuclear agreement," said Dawn
Murphy, professor of international security studies at the US Air War
College. Speaking Saturday to AFP in Lithuania's capital Vilnius, senior
Iranian official Massoumeh Ebtekar said Iran hoped European powers, Russia
and China would confirm their willingness to uphold the deal "as soon as
possible because Iran cannot wait forever.""We have been a faithful player
to this commitment, we've done our best, we've shown our good intentions. We
are facing a very volatile region," she said. The tensions over Iran come as
another nuclear issue dominates headlines, with Trump and North Korean
leader Kim Jong Un preparing for an unprecedented summit in Singapore.
Trade and security
Trade, investment and development cooperation issues will also feature
prominently at the SCO, Murphy said, given the climate of "rising
anti-globalisation and strains on global multilateral economic
institutions", stoked by Trump's nationalist "America First" policy. SCO
nations may discuss the potential of a joint free trade area, she said, as
China also pushes for participation in its Belt and Road global
infrastructure project. "Member states of the SCO are key to the success of
the Belt and Road initiative and China's growing influence as a Eurasian
power," said Murphy. China may, however, be hindered from gaining robust
support for its project at this summit due to India, the only SCO member
that does not endorse it, she noted. Regional security issues will also
feature, because terrorism is the most severe security challenge facing the
SCO, according to Liao Jinrong, head of the Chinese ministry of public
security's international cooperation department. "No matter what country has
terrorists, we must strengthen our regional cooperation and not allow them
to affect regional security," he told a press conference Friday, adding that
the SCO bloc had stopped "hundreds" of terrorist acts. The summit will boost
cooperation on combating terrorism, drug trafficking, organised cross-border
crimes and cybersecurity, he said.
Saudi to Host Meeting on Supporting Jordan's Economy
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 09/18/Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates, Kuwait and Jordan will meet Sunday to discuss ways to support
Amman as it looks to tackle an economic crisis in the wake of protests.
Riyadh said in statement Saturday that King Salman called the rulers of the
three other nations to set up a meeting in Mecca after demonstrations rocked
Jordan over a proposed tax hike. "They agreed to hold a meeting comprising
the four countries...to discuss means of supporting Jordan to overcome its
current crisis," the statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency
said. Cash-strapped Jordan, a close US ally that relies heavily on donors,
is struggling to curb its debt after securing a $723-million loan from the
International Monetary Fund in 2016. Austerity measures tied to the loan
have seen prices of basic necessities rise across the kingdom -- culminating
in a week of angry protests over tax proposals that forced prime minister
Hani Mulki to resign. The authorities on Thursday announced they were
withdrawing the unpopular legislation, but still face a mammoth task to
balance popular demands with the need to reduce the public debt burden.
Jordan blames its economic woes on instability rocking the region and the
burden of hosting hundreds of thousands of refugees from war-torn Syria,
complaining it has not received enough international support. The World Bank
says Jordan has "weak growth prospects" this year, while 18.5 percent of the
working age population is unemployed. Saudi Arabia and the United States are
two of the major donors providing vital economic assistance to Jordan.
Emergency UN General Assembly Meeting on Gaza Called
for Wednesday
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 09/18/The UN General Assembly will hold
an emergency meeting next Wednesday at 3:00 pm (19:00 GMT) to vote on an
Arab-backed resolution on Gaza, the body's president Miroslav Lajcak
announced Friday. The resolution will condemn Israel, and will be similar to
one vetoed by the United States in the Security Council last week, which
called for protecting Palestinians from Israeli aggression, according to
diplomats. It comes as four Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire on the
Gaza border on Friday, as weeks of deadly clashes with protesters continued.
Resolutions adopted by the General Assembly have no binding value, unlike
those passed by the Security Council. "We will work next week to get the
maximum number of votes," a diplomat from a country that supported the
measure told AFP. Arab countries turned to the General Assembly in December
after the US vetoed a Security Council vote on a resolution to condemn its
decision to move its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Fourteen
members of the Security Council backed the December resolution, though the
US as well as the council's four other permanent members retain a right to
veto. The measure then received 128 votes out of 193 in the General
Assembly. A diplomatic source said the emergency meeting had been pushed by
the Organization of Islamic States and the Arab League. Several European
countries have tried to dissuade Palestinians and Arab countries from
demanding a vote in the General Assembly after last week's US veto.
At least 129 Palestinians killed
"Everyone told them not to do it," said a diplomat on condition of
anonymity, arguing the resolution could be counterproductive if it doesn't
receive at least as many votes as the one obtained in December on Jerusalem.
Danny Danon, Israel's ambassador to the UN, condemned the planned
resolution. "It is unfortunate that instead of condemning the terrorists of
Hamas, some countries are looking to satisfy their domestic political needs
by bashing Israel at the United Nations," Danon said in a statement. It is
not entirely clear what form of protection the Palestinians of Gaza are
seeking, from observers to a full blown peacekeeping force. Arab states have
recently turned to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to make proposals
on this matter. But according to a diplomat who asked for anonymity, he said
he needed a mandate from the Security Council to look further into the
issue. On Friday, four Palestinians were killed in the Gaza Strip by Israeli
soldiers near the border fence during new clash-ridden protests in the
blockaded enclave. At least 129 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli
fire since protests broke out along the Gaza border on March 30. There have
been no Israeli casualties. Protests peaked on May 14 when at least 61
Palestinians were killed in protests to coincide with the controversial
opening of the US embassy in Jerusalem. The Jewish state maintains a
crippling blockade of Gaza it says is necessary to isolate Hamas.
Critics say it amount to collective punishment of the territory's two
million residents.
Sadr Strengthens Legislative Bloc ahead of Iraq Poll
Recount
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 09/18/Nationalist Moqtada Sadr, whose
bloc won the largest share of seats in Iraq's May legislative elections, has
strengthened his parliamentary position by forming an alliance with two
other lists. The former militia leader reached a coalition agreement on
Thursday with Shiite Ammar al-Hakim's Al-Hikma list and the secular outgoing
vice-president Iyad Allawi, whose list was comprised largely of Sunnis.
Sadr's move comes after parliament voted on Wednesday for a manual recount,
canceled expatriates' votes and sacked the electoral commission, amid
mounting allegations of fraud surrounding the May 12 poll. His strengthened
bloc gives Sadr around 100 seats, but not enough to generate a majority in
the 329 seat parliament. Iraq's political system is designed to ensure that
no one person or party can dominate, leading to extended post-election horse
trading between multiple factions -- a process that hasn't been interrupted
by the order for a recount. Sadr's enhanced bloc is calling for economic
reform and decentralization. It also says it opposes "politicizing
administrative and military institutions." Iran-backed parliamentary rivals
could nullify Sadr, who has called for his country to be more independent
from both Iran and the U.S. When initial results were announced, influential
Iranian General Ghassem Soleimani came to Baghdad in a bid to rally rival
Shiite factions against Sadr. Soleimani met outgoing Prime Minister Haider
al-Abadi, whose list secured 42 seats, former anti-jihadist fighters from
the paramilitary Hashed al-Shaabi units (47 seats) and former prime minister
Nuri al-Maliki (26 seats). If these groups form an alliance, they would take
115 seats -- enough to form a government, according to Iraq's Constitution.
Meanwhile "logistical preparations" for the manual recount have begun at the
electoral commission's headquarters, Iraq's Superior Council of Magistracy
said. The electoral commission has been dismissed and some members may face
fraud charges, authorities have warned. The commission says it will take
legal action to challenge the decision to dismiss it.
IS Retakes Parts of Eastern Syria Town in Major Attack
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 09/18/The Islamic State
group used at least 10 suicide bombers on Friday in a massive attack on Albu
Kamal, in which they retook parts of the eastern Syrian town, a monitor
said. At least 25 government and allied fighters were killed in the
offensive, one of the jihadists' largest this year, the Syrian Observatory
for Human Rights said. "It's the biggest attack on Albu Kamal since they
lost it" in November 2017, said Rami Abdel Rahman, the head of the
Britain-based Observatory. "IS now controls several parts of the city.
Fighting is ongoing in the center," he added. Albu Kamal lies on the border
with Iraq in Syria's Deir Ezzor province, about 440 kilometers (270 miles)
east of the capital Damascus. The area was the heart of the once sprawling,
self-styled "caliphate" IS proclaimed in 2014 and its recapture by
pro-government forces last year was the final nail in the proto-state's
coffin.
Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on June 09-10/18
Has Iran sold out Arab Shiites?
Sawsan Al Shaer/Al Arabiya/June 09/18
Iran has started to gradually sell out Arab Shiites in exchange for
negotiating to prevent re-instating economic sanctions and get the Europeans
and Russians to mediate. The Shiite groups which were lured by Iranian
rhetoric are nothing but an Iranian negotiation card. Russia has announced
that Iran is ready to withdraw from southern Syria, which means it is
willing to give up areas close to the Israeli border. Many Hezbollah and
Arab Shiite militias were killed to reach these areas, expel Syrians from
them and occupy them under the pretext of protecting the shrines! Today,
Iran is offering to retreat from these southern areas in return for engaging
in negotiations regarding its nuclear agreement instead of re-instating
economic sanctions. On another front, Iran has sold Yemeni Shiites (Houthis)
as European mediators announced that Iran is now ready and is offering to
pressure the Houthis to accept negotiations. Now, where are the shrines that
it wants to protect? Where are the control, rule and authority these groups
promised under the leadership of the Imam? What will they tell the mothers
who lost their sons in wars which they told them it will make them go to
heaven and please Ahl al-Bayt? How does Iran give up on them so easily?
This is Iran’s real face, and this is Iran’s price of the Arab Shiites. It’s
a cheap price in which they’re presented as sacrificial pawns to any side
that puts Iran under pressure. When Iran’s interests are in danger, it
presents its cheapest flock to be slaughtered by ordering it to retreat so
sanctions are not imposed, while it’s negligent to the sacrifices that these
Arabs have paid.
Arab Shiites are sacrificial pawns to be presented to any side that puts
Iran under pressure.
An interesting question comes to our mind here, why were the Shiites in
Azerbaijan not lured by the Iranian discourse, while Arab Shiites were? Why
didn’t Iran succeed in exporting its revolution to the Azerbaijani Shiites?
Why did it succeed in exporting it to Arab countries only, although the Imam
doctrine is the majority in Azerbaijan as the percentage of Shiites is more
than 70% which is about 6 million people? Iran has tried and succeeded in
recruiting the poor and sending them to Syria to fight for small amounts of
money after exploiting their living conditions, but it failed at recruiting
Azerbaijanis and inciting them against their countries. Iran failed badly
because it was strongly resisted as the Azerbaijanis are wary of Iran and
does not trust it. Their relationship with Tehran has witnessed several
upheavals, especially in disputed regions. Wouldn’t those who are of our
Arab and Gulf countries learn? Wouldn’t a group that was lured by the
Iranian discourse and which had believed that the latter is Islamic and
wants its interest learn? Don’t they see the reality before their eyes?
Don’t they see the miserable situation of Arab Shiite groups which are under
Iran’s influence in Arab countries, in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen and in
Ahwaz?
I salute the Arab Shiites who have endured a lot in trying times and who are
now leading the fight to regain control from the agents of Iran and
achieving major successes. They now have the courage to confront and defend
their Arabism. The circumstances are suitable for them now, and the whole
international community is with them. The Arab Shiites will always be
welcomed by their countries and will always find their fellow brothers from
different religions and sects welcoming them and encouraging them to revive
the Arab spirit again and restore the dignity of the national
identity.English's point-of-view.
Qatar: A year of dreams undermined
Anwar Gargash/Al Arabiya/June 09/18
It’s the first anniversary of what the world knows as ‘the Qatar crisis.’ It
seems there are no breakthroughs on the horizon and that we must get used to
the Gulf situation amid the loud media frenzy between Qatar and the four
boycotting countries that clearly voiced their concerns over the country’s
policies that have caused confusion in Gulf and regional affairs. Meanwhile,
Qatar feels the isolation from its immediate surroundings, the decline of
its role and the undermining of its dreams.
Qatar punching above its weight
This crisis did not come out of the blue and was not a sudden shock to us,
but was a natural outcome of Qatari policies which had overestimated the
country’s size and role in the region and displayed an opportunistic
orientation that neither concurs with loyalty nor is commensurate with the
ideals of Qatari and Gulf interests. Qatar’s relations with Gulf and Arab
countries have witnessed minor to medium-level crises from the beginning.
Thus, it was natural for the situation to lead up to the 2013 and 2014
crises, which concluded with reaching an agreement that the new Emir did not
respect, although he had asserted his commitment to it in the presence of
Gulf leaders in Riyadh. There is no doubt that issues which gradually
accumulated since the 1995 coup greatly contributed to the lack of trust in
Doha and its commitments. This is an essential aspect for understanding the
four countries’ approach towards Qatar’s foreign policy as Doha has since
1995 adopted a project that does not match its geopolitical stature. It has
sought from the start to achieve its ambitions by using its financial
capabilities in a series of opportunistic partnerships that included
building ties with Hezbollah, the Syrian president, the former Libyan leader
and the Muslim Brotherhood. It is through these partnerships that Doha
sought to enhance its regional presence by hosting the US military base and
through the Al Jazeera news channel project. Qatar gradually began to dabble
with such contradictions. Its foreign policy initiatives focused on
mediation, which is a traditional approach of small countries in
international relations. Qatar then began seeking a bigger role – a role
that was not backed by economic interests, military power or industrial
heft.
As the Qatari crisis continues, we see new dynamics for relations in the
region because Doha’s role has been marginalized as a result of its poor
choices.
Political hubris
The project from the very beginning sought an individualistic approach for
which networks were built and money was spent. It belied blatant opportunism
that we’ve witnessed in the normalization of its relations with Israel,
which was done to build bridges with the West in support of the project.
It’s difficult for such high stakes political ambitions to be in sync with
real interests of a conservative Gulf state, and these are costly ambitions
of a ruler who loves politics and wants to immerse in it. Still, there were
no objections as long as this project did not concern the stability of the
region or adversely affect the security and safety of neighbors. This is an
important point. The sovereignty and independent foreign policy is one of
the Gulf Cooperation Council’s norms and there has never been an objection
to the policies of this or that Gulf state. However, when it turned out that
the individual project which Qatar had adopted was inimical to the security
of the region and the stability of its countries, clarity and confrontation
became essential. A year after measures for the boycott were taken, we can
see that the essence of the dispute remains the same. Qatar still supports
extremism and terrorism and has taken on plenty of terrorist projects in the
Arab world. There is plenty of evidence to substantiate this, including
Qatar’s role in Libya, its support of the Muslim Brotherhood and of other
groups linked to al-Qaeda in Iraq, Syria and Libya. After its crisis, Qatar
pledged several commitments to Washington, but initial indicators show its
lack of commitment. Within this context, it’s no secret that the Qatari
terror blacklist, which was published after American pressure, was partially
from the four countries’ list against Qatar. There is plenty of other
evidence.
Threat to regional security
Qatar’s continuous interference to violate the security and stability of the
four countries as well as other countries is plainly evident. The now-famous
audio evidence showing Qatar’s former Emir and his foreign minister
conspiring against Saudi Arabia and its King with Qaddafi is one of the most
prominent proofs of its resounding decline at the political level. The
hallways of the Gulf Cooperation Council have witnessed several discussions
over Qatar’s systematic and documented interference to undermine Bahrain’s
security. This is in addition to its role in destabilizing Egypt and the UAE.
What’s strange about Doha’s response to this crisis and its dealings with
the four major Gulf and Arab countries is its intransigence and complete
lack of wisdom, all with the aim of protecting its project which has
directed its course since 1995. In addition to its refusal to review ties
with its neighbors, Doha has also leveled accusations, raised the slogan of
sovereignty and screamed that it’s being unjustly treated. Its ministers
have traveled across the world to promote a losing cause. It has raised the
issue like a public relations’ battle that can be won by whoever makes the
most noise. Many countries have benefitted from this Qatari dream and have
sealed rewarding contracts knowing that the opportunity is good for making
such a gain.
No hope in Western intervention
Qatar has pursued conflict and intransigence and has relied on a vision of
suspicion to manage international relations. Hopes of western intervention
for settling this Gulf problem have evaporated and Qatari diplomacy has
exposed how unmindful its moves have been towards resolving its real crisis.
In order to end this crisis, Qatar must review itself and stop supporting
extremism and terrorism and undermining the security of its neighbors in the
region. This is easy to do and it requires the condition of honesty with
one’s self and with others. One year has elapsed since the Qatar crisis. We
realize that the main factors which led to this crisis are still extant.
It’s not possible to resolve it without resolving Qatar’s support for
terrorism and extremism and without backing down on harming others. The
solution – as learnt by experience – requires guarantees because there is no
trust in the Qatari leadership especially given the experience in 2013 and
2014 and amid the stubbornness and misguidance which has distinguished
Qatar’s management of its crisis during the past year. As the Qatari crisis
continues, we see new dynamics for relations in the region because Doha’s
role has been marginalized as a result of its poor choices. Nothing will
help it, neither destruction or bribes or over-hyped media coverage. The
upcoming implementation of international and regional decisions will prevent
it from attaining the partnerships it seeks.
In the second year of its crisis, Qatar will try to revive international
interest in its isolation. This will be very difficult because in the
absence of wisdom, everything will be the same for Doha without anything
changing and without altering the pressure it’s subjected to.
As for the four countries, they have developed international relations which
do not include its small neighbor, and they manage these relations without
Qatar’s muddled presence. Qatar’s only role left is a media echo that is
losing its credibility and gradually dimming.
The four countries have plenty of options today in terms of dealing with the
regional scene and arranging their alliance in support of security and
stability in the region and confronting extremism and terrorism without this
crisis affecting the strength of their presence on the regional, Arab and
international levels.
Italy: Back from the brink, for a while?
Dr. Mohamed A. Ramady/Al Arabiya/June 09/18
Once again the European Union and the future of the Eurozone seemed to be in
a bit of suspense following the latest Italian elections and the problem of
putting together a coalition government.
In the end, Italy stepped back from square one in rejecting the Northern
League/Five Star Movement selection of the fiercely Euro-skeptic Paolo
Savona to the key position of Finance Minister, which Italy’s President
Sergio Mattarella may have intended to avert a fundamental crisis between
Rome, Frankfurt, and Brussels. But in the process Mattarella threw the
country into a new crisis until the last minute agreement on a new
government, and in a bizarre unintended twist , may have played right into
the hands of the fiery Northern League leader, Matteo Salvini. Prime
Minister-designate Giuseppe Conte presented his list of ministers to
President Sergio Mattarella for the second time in a week.
Ministers were drawn from both the anti-establishment Five Star (M5S) and
right-wing League. Attempts to form a technocratic government had failed
earlier. While Mr Mattarella had rejected Mr Conte’s original choice for
finance minister a different candidate was agreed after meeting President
Mattarella, Mr Conte confirmed that the new candidate for the key finance
post would be economics professor Giovanni Tria. Analysts say he is critical
of the European Union but not an advocate of leaving the euro, making him
more acceptable to President Mattarella. The deal will bring at least
temporary calm to a political crisis that has embroiled Italy for weeks. The
tumult raised questions – in Brussels and among investors around the world –
about whether the rise in Italian populism and the collapse of traditional
parties posed a threat to Italy’s long-term future in the Eurozone. With the
appointment of a new coalition government in Italy, markets need not fear a
new round of elections as a dreaded proxy “referendum on the Euro” as
neither party will include that in their platforms by any stretch of the
imagination – despite market chatter about mini-BOTs, alternative currency
regimes, and other nonsense. A prolonged budget fight with Brussels on top
of tighter funding rates already will most certainly further strain the
Italian economy and banking sector that had just started to recover
The many un-knowns
But there are still many unknowns about how the new administration – an
uneasy alliance between two former political opponents, both jockeying for
power – will govern Italy. Salvini, who rose in recent years on the back of
incendiary and racist statements about migrants and Roma, will take on the
role of interior minister as Salvini has campaigned on the promise of mass
deportations of migrants and said a new government would build detention
centres around Italy. He is also a fierce critic of Brussels and has called
for closer ties to Russia which is going to cause alarm with those European
countries at loggerheads with Russia on various issues. Meanwhile, Di Maio,
will take on a powerful new post that will combine labour and industry
portfolios in a move that could mark big changes to labour and environmental
policies, given the M5S’s stated opposition to big industry.
This continuing Italian political uncertainty is going to cost Italy in the
financial markets. A prolonged budget fight with Brussels on top of tighter
funding rates already will most certainly further strain the Italian economy
and banking sector that had just started to recover.
EU officials are concerned that the Italian banking sector, already under
severe strain, has if anything deepened what is a potentially dangerous
sovereign and bank balance sheet loop, against EU policy objectives since
the debt crisis, and indeed against the positive trend in other countries
away from that reliance across the Eurozone.
That downwards pressure is almost certain now to be accelerated through the
ratings agencies, where Italian banks do not have much room for manoeuvre.
Italy’s current sovereign ratings are a couple of notches above junk and
Moody’s and Fitch have indicated these will be under review.
European Central Bank (ECB) rules require an exception for ECB liquidity to
Eurozone banks if the highest of four ratings agencies (the other two being
S+P and DBRS) was to fall below investment grade.
The Greek example
The Italians have only to look at what happened to Greece as a future
scenario. That is what happened to Greek banks that subsequently had to be
funded by the Greek National Bank’s ELA lines, until they were recapitalized
and had recovered their credit ratings.
And that is what could lie in store for Italian banks were this crisis to
continue and take a toll on the real economy, as well as on the banks’
immediate funding costs, and ability to further dispose of non-performing
loans. Very rough estimates are that such a program could require a loan or
credit line of as high as 80 or 100 billion Euros – Spain borrowed 30
billion and ended up with some room to spare – and the European Stability
Mechanism has some 400 or so billion Euros in its coffers. A sovereign run
on the funding markets would be a different ball game altogether. Some
analysts believe that the political turn of events in Italy will prove the
death knell to any hopes at this point for a Macron/Merkel push for any
deeper Eurozone integration, even on the most modest, almost micro levels.
First, the EU has been pushing for sovereign bond concentration limits for
European banks, intended to make banks more resilient by reducing the
sovereign-bank debt loop risk. While Spain, for example, in practice has
taken steps to address those risks, all signs are that Italy, the biggest
offender by far, will now go even deeper in the other direction.
The new government is expected to take a far more antagonistic stance
against Brussels than the previous government, headed by the centre-left
Democratic party. But the alliance between the M5S and the League will have
only a relatively narrow majority in the Italian senate, easing concerns
among investors and officials in Brussels over the new government’s
decision-making. While both parties are populist in nature, and have railed
against Brussels and Italian “elites”, they have long been natural opponents
in politics. It will be no surprise to hear of yet another Italian election
taking place in the not too distant future.
Pay Attention to What is Happening between the US and
its Traditional Allies
Robert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/June 09/18
It is easy to understand why readers of this newspaper pay very close
attention to the many crises in the Middle East such as in Yemen and Syria.
I hope the readers will forgive me therefore if I offer some advice. Don’t
forget to watch what is happening between the United States and its
traditional political and economic allies in Europe and Japan. In my 40
years as a diplomat and university professor, I have never seen the
relations between the United States and its traditional allies with such big
problems. And in my experience, it is impossible to have a dependable
political alliance if the members of the alliance are in the middle of an
economic war.
Here is the first event to watch. On June 7 and 8 a meeting of defense
ministers of the NATO alliance was held in Brussels. The discussions were
supposed to focus on military spending and military capabilities. All the
NATO members had confidence in US Defense Secretary James Mattis. However,
trade issues entered the NATO agenda. The defense minister of Canada, Harjit
Sejjan, told Canadian media he would talk a lot at the NATO meeting about
the new trade restrictions the United States is imposing on Canada. The
Trump administration acknowledged it has imposed new taxes on Canadian steel
imports to protect American national security. The Canadians say it is
ridiculous to call Canada a national security threat to the United States.
Some of the European members of NATO have said that they also wanted to
discuss new American taxes on European steel and aluminum exports on the
margins of the NATO meeting. The Secretary General of NATO, Jens
Stoltenberg, told the media on June 5 that these economic disputes are
causing serious divisions inside the Atlantic Alliance and he has to try to
“reduce and limit the negative consequences for NATO.”
The next event to watch is the summit of the leaders of the 7 major
economies, the G7, in Canada that kicked off on Friday. At a meeting last
week to prepare for the summit, the finance ministers of the seven countries
could not agree on a joint communique. There were big disagreements about
trade, about environment policy and, of course, about the American
withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. It is extremely unusual for the seven
countries – who have been close allies for 60 years – not to agree on a
joint communique. A Japanese official told the media that he has
participated for 20 years preparing these summits and he had never seen the
United States isolated like it is now.
French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Theresa May have
talked to Trump this week, but the conversations were terrible according to
media reports. The strongest criticisms of America came from Canada, perhaps
America’s closest ally. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, angry about the new
American taxes on Canadian steel and aluminum exports, executed new taxes
against some American products in retaliation. He said the American trade
actions are “insulting” to Canada which had fought in wars alongside
American soldiers. A woman in the Canadian city of Hamilton, where there is
a big steel factory, told the New York Times on June 1 the American tax is a
“slap in the face of Canadians.”
Meanwhile, President Trump last week ordered his administration to stop
sanctions against a large Chinese telecommunications company, ZTE, that had
been doing business with Iran and North Korea. The business deals were
illegal under American sanctions. The American legal penalties were going to
be severe, but the President in a tweet said that he wanted to help save
Chinese jobs. The administration has not been able to explain why the
president is worried about jobs in China, which is not an American ally, but
not so worried about deteriorating economic relations with NATO countries
and Japan.
Perhaps this is part of Trump’s negotiating strategy. Perhaps he will change
his mind. NATO will not collapse next week. Unlike America’s trading
partners in Canada and Mexico, the European countries and Japan have not
implemented their threats to retaliate and launch a trade war. NATO had a
crisis in 1956 about Suez and a crisis in 2003 about Iraq. We should also
remember that 1956 and 2003 didn’t involve business relations and the health
of alliance members’ economies. A former American ambassador to NATO, Ivo
Daalder, told the American media this week that alliances like NATO depend
on trust. What we are watching is a Trump administration acid eroding before
our eyes the key western alliances that American presidents since Franklin
Roosevelt were building. If this doesn’t change, international geopolitics
in less than 20 years will be extremely different.
Marching for Terrorism in London? No Problem
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/June 09/18
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/12483/london-al-quds-terrorism
The leader of last year's London Al Quds Day rally, Nazim Ali – director of
the "Islamic Human Rights Commission", which organizes the annual march –
called for the annihilation of Israel. They also carried banners that said,
"We are all Hezbollah," (what a comforting thought for the British). If,
however, like the scholar Robert Spencer, one reports on these activities,
one is barred from entering England.
The real problem is the contrast in how the slightest criticism of Islam in
the UK is perceived by British police, who readily go about arresting and
prosecuting people for it.
An afternoon of racism is in store for Londoners on Sunday, but as long as
the hate is directed against Jews by Muslims, British authorities apparently
have no problem with it.
On Sunday June 10 in London, the yearly so-called Al Quds Day march -- Al
Quds is the Arabic name for both Jerusalem and for the day, invented by
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led Iran's 1979 revolution that overthrew
the Shah -- will take place. The march is, basically, a call for the
destruction of Israel, sometimes also Jews in general. Many other cities,
among them Toronto, Berlin and Tehran, will also be "celebrating" the day.
Last year in London, around 1000 people waved countless Hezbollah flags, in
honor of Iran's proxy terrorist organization, while chanting slogans such as
"Zionists/ISIS are the same, only difference is the name" and "From the
river to the sea - Palestine will be free". They also carried banners that
said, "We are all Hezbollah," (what a comforting thought for the British).
The leader of last year's London Al Quds rally, Nazim Ali – director of the
"Islamic Human Rights Commission", which organizes the annual march – called
for the annihilation of Israel and accused British Jews -- falsely -- of
being behind the 2017 fire in London's Grenfell Towers apartment complex.
"This demonstration calls on justice for Grenfell. Some of the biggest
supporters of the Conservative Party are Zionists. They are responsible for
the murder of the people in Grenfell". He also made it known to the crowd
that he thought the UK should effectively become free of Jews: "We are fed
up of the Zionists. We are fed up of their rabbis. We are fed up of their
synagogues. We are fed up of their supporters."
"It's just an opinion," a female police officer said.
The real problem is the contrast in how the slightest criticism of Islam in
the UK is perceived by British police, who readily go about arresting and
prosecuting people for it, for example here, here, here, here and here.
After complaints about Ali's statements, the Metropolitan Police
investigated, but the Crown Prosecution Service declared in December 2017
that he would not face prosecution:
"We considered whether offences of inciting racial or religious hatred or a
public order offence had been committed, in line with the tests set out in
the Code for Crown Prosecutors. We concluded that the evidential test in the
Code was not met and therefore no charges have been authorised."
In the UK, calling for the annihilation of an entire people – the Jews – as
well as blood libeling and inciting against British Jews is not considered
"inciting racial or religious hatred" and apparently does not even lead to
charges. British authorities apparently consider marching with terrorist
flags while calling for the death of Jews a legitimate activity.
If, however, like the scholar Robert Spencer, one reports on these
activities, one is barred from entering England.
Not only was Nazim Ali never charged, but he will have ample opportunity to
have another go on Sunday. Last year, the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, wrote
to then Home Secretary Amber Rudd asking her to close the legal loophole
that makes it legitimate for terrorist supporters to fly Hezbollah flags on
the streets of London. The loophole is the fact that the "political wing" of
Hezbollah is not proscribed in the UK. In response to Khan, Amber Rudd
wrote:
"The group that reportedly organised the parade, the Islamic Human Rights
Commission, is not a proscribed terrorist organisation. This means they can
express their views and demonstrate, provided that they do so within the
law. The flag for the organisation's military wing is the same as the flag
for its political wing. Therefore, for it to be an offence under Section 13
of the Terrorism Act 2000, for an individual to display the Hizballah flag,
the context and manner in which the flag is displayed must demonstrate that
it is specifically in support of the proscribed elements of the group".
In other words, showing support for the terrorist group Hezbollah in the UK
is legitimate, because the authorities make believe that the support is for
the "political wing". As someone once said, "If the Salvation Army had a
wing called Murder Inc. that would be fine."
This year, Khan has again written to the Home Secretary, Sajid Javid, but it
is unlikely that the letter will yield a different response from last
year's. According to the mayor's spokesperson:
"Anti-Semitism or hate crime of any kind has no place in our city or in our
society. Sadiq has written to the Home Secretary to raise his deep concerns
about the support shown for Hezbollah at the annual Al Quds Day march. He
has called on him to urgently reconsider his predecessor's decision not to
take action to stop this."
This year, the vicar Stephen Sizer, who has suggested that Israel was behind
9/11 and was banned from social media by Church of England authorities for
six months for sharing "clearly anti-Semitic" material, will be one of the
main speakers at the Al Quds march. Sizer has also apparently met top
Hezbollah officials in Lebanon and participated in a 2014 conference in Iran
where he was to deliver a speech on the "Israeli lobby". The conference was
reportedly attended by several Holocaust deniers; it was intended to "unveil
the secrets behind the dominance of the Zionist lobby over US and EU
politics".
Jeremy Corbyn defended the vicar at the time, claiming that he had been
condemned because he had "dared to speak out against Zionism".
Mick Napier, of the Scottish Palestine Solidarity Campaign, will also be
speaking at the march. An activist who promotes isolating Israel to destroy
it economically, Napier was convicted of aggravated trespass against an
Israeli cosmetics store in 2014 and of failing to follow police orders to
leave the store.
An afternoon of racism is in store for Londoners on Sunday, but as long as
the hate is directed against Jews by Muslims, British authorities apparently
have no problem with it.
*Judith Bergman is a columnist, lawyer and political analyst.
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here
do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone
Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be
reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of
Gatestone Institute.
Assad is underestimating the obstacles to victory
Sharif Nashashibi/Arab News/June 09/18
It is indisputable that the Syrian war has turned decidedly in President
Bashar Assad’s favor. Nonetheless, his claim last week that the Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) is “the only problem left” in terms of his repeated
vow to retake the whole country is overly optimistic. There are three major
regions that stand in the way of his goal, and the Kurdish-dominated,
US-backed SDF is present in only one of them (albeit the largest).
The SDF controls a swath of territory in the north and northeast that
comprises about a third of Syria. But the southwest of the country,
bordering Jordan and Israel, is held by the Southern Front alliance, and the
northeast is controlled by rebel and Turkish forces.
Each of these regions poses different challenges to Assad’s goal of total
conquest. Though not insurmountable, they are significant, and his chances
of overcoming them depend on the actions and reactions of foreign powers.
Last week, Syria’s foreign minister said Damascus seeks to recapture the
southwest, which is covered by a cease-fire deal brokered last year by the
US, Russia and Jordan. In addition, Syrian aircraft dropped leaflets telling
rebels in the area to lay down their weapons or face an offensive.
But the Syrian regime’s success in the southwest will depend largely on two
factors: Whether the US makes good on its warning of “firm and appropriate
measures” against any cease-fire violation, and whether a report by Saudi
news site Elaph of indirect negotiations between Israel and Iran in Jordan
are accurate. Unlike his predecessor Barack Obama, US President Donald Trump
has militarily confronted the Assad regime and its allied ground forces on
various occasions. But Trump has also cut funding to the southern rebels, so
his commitment to their defense is questionable. Meanwhile, Jordan has
largely turned its back on the Southern Front in its quest to mend ties with
Damascus.
Elaph reported that Iran pledged to stay out of fighting in southwest Syria,
while Israel said it would not intervene in battles near the
Israeli-occupied Golan Heights or the border with Jordan as long as
Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias are not involved.
The report, while unconfirmed, is lent credence by last week’s statement by
Moscow — a key ally of Assad and Tehran — that only his forces should be
present along Syria’s southern borders, and by Reuters reporting that Iran
backs Russia’s efforts in that regard.
The absence of help from foreign ground forces in an offensive in the
southwest would complicate the task facing Assad’s forces. But with Russian
air support a certainty, and barring a significant intervention from the US
or Israel, eventual victory against the rebels is likely. Such a calculation
by the Southern Front may push it, or groups within the alliance, to
negotiate rather than resist.
Last week, Assad threatened force against the SDF if it does not negotiate a
handover of the territory it controls. Though the SDF is a formidable force,
its ability and willingness to stand its ground against the Assad regime and
its allies depends largely on US military support.
Given the mixed signals from Washington about how long it plans to keep
American forces in SDF-held territory, such support — particularly in the
medium to long term — is questionable.
While Washington has provided significant backing to the SDF, and has
defended it militarily against the Assad regime and its allies, Damascus is
probably banking on Trump making good on his statement in March that the US
will withdraw from Syria “very soon.”
The Syrian war is far from over, and Assad's road to victory is paved with
variables over which he has little or no control. If he truly believes the
SDF is the only thing standing in his way, he is headed for disappointment.
Such a withdrawal would probably trigger parallel offensives against the SDF
by Damascus and its allies on one hand, and by Turkish and Syrian rebel
forces on the other. The resulting scramble, which the SDF could not
successfully resist, could resemble that which occurred between the group
and the Assad regime against Daesh in eastern Syria.
But even a willingness to negotiate would not necessarily spare the SDF. A
hubristic Assad, aware of the precariousness of the group’s position, may be
in no mood to offer significant concessions. But the SDF has gained too much
in terms of territory and political autonomy to give that up for nothing.
However, major concessions by Assad to the Kurds might trigger an offensive
against the SDF by Turkey and allied Syrian rebels.
Indeed, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly vowed to
continue a military campaign that has dislodged Kurdish forces from the
Syrian canton of Afrin, threatening to extend it all the way to the border
with Iraq. Like Assad, all that is stopping Ankara is a US military presence
whose longevity is in doubt.
That brings us to the third major region outside Assad’s control: The
northwest, held by Syrian rebel forces backed by Turkey’s powerful military,
which has a considerable ground presence and has set up a dozen observation
posts to monitor the “de-escalation zone” in Idlib governorate.
During its Afrin offensive, Turkey’s military repelled Damascus-allied
forces trying to support Kurdish fighters, suggesting that Ankara would do
so again in any future face-off in northern Syria. Therefore Assad could
retake territory held by Ankara-backed rebels only if Turkey withdraws from
Syria. This is an eventuality, but Erdogan has given no indication that it
will happen any time soon.
There are two likely scenarios for a Turkish withdrawal: Under a deal
brokered by Russia — which enjoys good relations with Ankara and Damascus,
and has leverage over both — after the two other major regions are dealt
with; or via a change of leadership in Turkey, whose main political
opposition favors normalizing ties with the Assad regime.
But Turkey’s elections this month are unlikely deliver an opposition
victory. And while Moscow would probably offer Ankara guarantees against
certain Syrian-Kurdish ambitions, Erdogan may view rebel proxies as more
reliable in that regard than Assad.
Although Turkey’s involvement in Syria is limited to rolling back Kurdish
gains rather than threatening the Assad regime, there is still no love lost
between Ankara and Damascus, despite the normalization of Russian-Turkish
ties.
Assad may be banking — correctly — that his allies are in it for the long
haul, longer than his opponents’ foreign backers. Russian President Vladimir
Putin and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah this week said as much about
their forces’ presence in Syria; so time would seem to be on Assad’s side.
But the war is far from over, and his road to victory is paved with
variables over which he has little or no control. If he truly believes the
SDF is the only thing standing in his way, he is headed for disappointment.
• Sharif Nashashibi is an award-winning journalist and commentator on Arab
affairs.
How Trump upset the G7 applecart
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/June 09/18
US President Donald Trump gave the relationship with his G7 colleagues 10
out of 10, but dissonances dominated their meeting in Quebec. The Europeans
do not see eye to eye with the Trump administration on any major issue —
trade, the Paris accord on climate change or the Iran nuclear agreement.
Wherever one stands on any of these issues, such rifts between the “leader
of the free world” and his longest standing allies are unprecedented. Some
commentators even dubbed this summit the “G6 plus one.”
The Financial Times called the G7 the “steering committee of the global
economy.” That may be true, but the US president is not interested. He
believes in bilateral, not multilateral, solutions. He has long been
vociferous in his skepticism about the efficacy of the World Trade
Organization, the Bretton Woods institutions and the G20. He is not a
student of history, but a believer in unconventional approaches and the
power of gut instinct — his gut instinct, to be precise.
It should not therefore have come as a surprise when Trump announced that
Russia should be invited back into the fold, against the consensus among his
G7 allies.
Trump may actually have a point in that Russia is an important country, rich
in natural resources. It is the world’s largest country by landmass,
spanning 11 time zones, and has a big nuclear arsenal. It may in many ways
be better to engage with Vladimir Putin than to hurl outrage at him over his
international behaviour. Nevertheless, the frustration of EU Council
President Donald Tusk was understandable in the light of Russian meddling in
European politics, the Skripal affair and the fact that Russia was expelled
from the G8 in 2014 because of its annexation of Crimea. Trump was
unconventional and inconsistent at the same time, given that he had slapped
biting economic sanctions on Russia a few months earlier. Again, that is
nothing new with the president.
Meanwhile the EU has its own problems, which go far beyond Brexit. The new
populist government in Italy sent markets into a tail spin because its
proposed finance minister, Paolo Savona, has long advocated leaving the
euro. The president vetoed that appointment so Savona is now in charge of
Italy’s relations with the EU — where he will no doubt create controversy.
Italy’s government is led by the right-wing anti-immigration League and the
left-wing Five Star movement, two populist groups at opposite ends of the
political spectrum. Spain has a new minority government under the socialist
party’s Pedro Sanchez. Its ability to survive the legislative period that
ends in 2020 is in doubt. Some observers do not even give it until the end
of the year.
As if the instability on its southern rim were not enough, the EU is divided
among leaders who want “ever deeper integration,” such as Jean-Claude
Juncker and Emmanuel Macron; pragmatists who advocate fiscal prudence, such
as Angela Merkel; and populists thriving on anti-immigration platforms, such
as Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Austria’s Sebastian Kurz and the League’s Matteo
Salvini. These right-wing populists are in many ways closer to Trump than to
other European leaders — not least in their appreciation of Vladimir Putin
and Russia’s role in international politics.
Trump has seriously upset the applecart and we can no longer take for
granted the post-Second World War consensus as to who is friend or foe.
While the multilateral mechanisms of the “free world” face division, the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) seems to be going strong. Its
leaders gather this weekend for their own summit. The SCO counts the former
Soviet republics, Russia, China, Pakistan and India among its members. It
represents 40 per cent of the world’s population and 20 per cent of its GDP.
Its job is to ensure stability in Central Asia. It may be easier to find
common ground in an organisation where most heads of state are autocrats and
sole decision makers than in organisations where leaders are under constant
electoral scrutiny. It helps that China’s “Belt and Road” initiative brings
investment and economic activity (albeit combined with high levels of
national debt) to many central Asian countries.
For the time being, the “G6” seem to stand united. However, Italy is now in
favor of readmitting Russia, and Japan is far less belligerent than the rest
on the subject of Trump’s new trade tariffs. Shinzo Abe has bigger fish to
fry; he needs to ensure Japan’s security concerns are taken into
consideration when Trump meets North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un in Singapore on
Tuesday. However, should the US president make good on his threat to impose
a 25 per cent tariff on light vehicles, Abe is bound to join his “G6”
colleagues in their outrage. In the meantime, Trump left Canada early to
prepare for the Singapore summit. He missed sessions on the environment and
oceans. This comes as little surprise from a president who denies climate
change and is not motivated by environmental concerns.
All this seems to show one thing: Donald Trump has seriously upset the
applecart and we can no longer take for granted the post-Second World War
consensus as to who is friend or foe. The multilateral order based on the
principles of free trade, democracy and human rights, be it Bretton Woods,
the WTO or the EU, is under stress, and the participants will need to find
new ways of collaborating. At the same time, new organizations such as the
SCO are up and coming. China is the new kid on the block, and will assert
its position. The deck of cards is being rearranged. With change comes
instability, and a vacuum that will be filled by new players.
• Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy
expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources