LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 18/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations
Remind the people to be subject to rulers and authorities, to be obedient, to be ready to do whatever is good,  to slander no one, to be peaceable and considerate, and always to be gentle toward everyone
Titus 03/Remind the people to be subject to rulers and authorities, to be obedient, to be ready to do whatever is good,  to slander no one, to be peaceable and considerate, and always to be gentle toward everyone. At one time we too were foolish, disobedient, deceived and enslaved by all kinds of passions and pleasures. We lived in malice and envy, being hated and hating one another.  But when the kindness and love of God our Savior appeared,  he saved us, not because of righteous things we had done, but because of his mercy. He saved us through the washing of rebirth and renewal by the Holy Spirit,  whom he poured out on us generously through Jesus Christ our Savior,  so that, having been justified by his grace, we might become heirs having the hope of eternal life.  This is a trustworthy saying. And I want you to stress these things, so that those who have trusted in God may be careful to devote themselves to doing what is good. These things are excellent and profitable for everyone. But avoid foolish controversies and genealogies and arguments and quarrels about the law, because these are unprofitable and useless.  Warn a divisive person once, and then warn them a second time. After that, have nothing to do with them. You may be sure that such people are warped and sinful; they are self-condemned.  As soon as I send Artemas or Tychicus to you, do your best to come to me at Nicopolis, because I have decided to winter there.  Do everything you can to help Zenas the lawyer and Apollos on their way and see that they have everything they need.  Our people must learn to devote themselves to doing what is good, in order to provide for urgent needs and not live unproductive lives. Everyone with me sends you greetings. Greet those who love us in the faith. Grace be with you all.."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 17-18/18
Latest news in the country of freedoms/Michel Hajji Georgiou/Face Book/January 18/2018
AMCD Firmly Supports President Trump on Immigration/January 18/18
‘Beirut’ Movie Trailer Sparks Uproar in Lebanon, Calls for Ban/Vivian Haddad/Asharq Al Awsat/January 17/2018
Europe's Betrayal of the Iranian People/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/January 17/2018
The Arab-Israeli Conflict: Why No Peace/Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/January 17/2018
Beyond the Iran Nuclear Deal/John R. Bolton/Gatestone Institute/January 17/2018
The Terrorism Jobs Program: Pampering the Palestinians Must End/Nonie Darwish/Gatestone Institute/January 17/2018
Pressure Rising on OPEC to Develop Long-Term Output Plan/Robin Mills/Bloomberg/January 17/2018
Who Will Profit Off the Next Crash/Satyajit Das/Bloomberg/January 17/2018
Europe Has Completely Turned the Tables on Brexit/Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/January 17/2018

Titles For Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on January 17-18/18
Latest news in the country of freedoms
AMCD Firmly Supports President Trump on Immigration
Richard Hosts 32 Municipalities Receiving USAID Assistance in 2018
Bulgarian Trial Begins over 2012 Bombing Blamed on Hizbullah
Serbia Arrests Lebanese for Forging Documents in Drug Smuggling Case
Report: Law Extending Voter Registration for Expats to Be Discussed in Cabinet
Women in Parliament: EU Supports Participation of Lebanese Women in Elections
Warnings of Fallout after US Freezes Funding for Palestinian Refugees
After initial ban, Lebanon allows Spielberg’s 'The Post'
‘Beirut’ Movie Trailer Sparks Uproar in Lebanon, Calls for Ban

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 17-18/18
US to have open-ended presence in Syria
British MPs Approve Landmark Brexit Bill, Send it to Lords
60 percent of State Department’s top-ranking career diplomats have left: report
Macron Criticizes EU Rules on Migrants
Trump Visit Set to Blot Out Davos Meet
UAE: Qatari violations against Emirati planes systematic, endangers civilians
Gargash: Qatar flight interception shows signs of worry, confusion
Arab Coalition destroys Houthi missile launch bases along Saudi border
Saudi preacher Abdul Muhsin Al-Tuwaijri shot dead in Guinea village
Jolani Urges Rebels to 'Close Ranks' against Regime
Catalan MPs Elect Separatist Speaker as Sacked Leader Eyes Comeback

Latest Lebanese Related News published on January 17-18/18
Latest news in the country of freedoms
Michel Hajji Georgiou/Face Book/January 18/18
Baabda, Lebanon/Journalist and political analyst Hanine Ghaddar, who is currently working at the Washington Institute for near east policy in the United States and who is known for his opposition to Hezbollah, was sentenced on Monday (in absentia) to six months in prison by the military court for "attack on the Lebanese Army" in a speech delivered in may 2014 at a conference organized by the Washington Institute in the American Capital. It should be noted that the al-Akhbar newspaper had, at the time, conducted a campaign of accusations of collaboration with Israel against the journalist - because former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak had taken part in the same conference, even if he did not. Did not participate in the same panel as Mrs. Ghaddar.

AMCD Firmly Supports President Trump on Immigration
Our current system only helps to prop up corrupt governments.
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=61854
WASHINGTON, DC, USA, January 15, 2018 /EINPresswire.com/ -- WASHINGTON DC: The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy (AMCD) fully supports President Trump’s effort to re-orient America’s immigration policy to a merit based system. For too long, America’s immigration system has been based on the benefit to the immigrants themselves rather than focusing on what is good for America. Our national immigration system should be oriented to bringing in people who will fill the needs of our nation – not the needs of their country of origin. Immigration from Mexico, for example, serves Mexico by providing a “safety valve” for their unemployed as well as providing Mexico tens of billions per year in remittances. Our current immigration system is now doing the same thing for dysfunctional countries in Africa which will only delay needed reforms and help to keep corrupt dictators in power.
“To accuse President Trump of racism for stating facts on the ground is wrong and devalues the true meaning and impact of the word racist,” said AMCD member and immigrant from Ethiopia, Laban Seyoum. “Corruption, undemocratic practices and the non-existence of the rule of law have brought poverty, misery and, yes, internal conflicts in African nations. President Trump is first and foremost a businessman. As a businessman he understands that the future of the African continent as whole is good, but changes need to occur quickly.”
“We must also be concerned that jihadists will take advantage of our immigration system to insert terrorist cells into the US,” cautioned AMCD Co-Director Tom Harb. “Many countries in Africa have become hotbeds of terrorism.”
“Sudan and Nigeria are literally being torn apart by jihadism,” added AMCD President, John Hajjar. “Somalia and Libya have been so completely destroyed by jihadists, they are now failed states. Why should we take the chance on importing those same problems here?”
“President Trump’s tax cuts and the deregulation are already benefiting the Africans and other immigrants currently living this great nation. Many African immigrants are small business owners who were hampered during the past administration by excessive regulations, Obamacare and taxes,” added Mr. Seyoum. “By restricting immigration from failed regions, President Trump is actually helping to ensure the success of African immigrants already here.”
America First means we should bring in immigrants who will benefit our country socially and economically as well as making sure our current immigrants fully assimilate and add to the success of our country as a whole. AMCD firmly supports the President in this effort.
http://www.americanmideast.com/
Rebecca Bynum
The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy
(615) 775-6801

Richard Hosts 32 Municipalities Receiving USAID Assistance in 2018
Naharnet/January 17/18/U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Elizabeth Richard on Wednesday hosted at the U.S. Embassy leaders of 32 municipalities selected to receive United States assistance to implement community development projects in 2018. The new set of selected projects was announced during a public event at Le Gray Hotel on January 17. “These projects from all over Lebanon will be implemented with funding from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under its Building Alliance for Local Development, Advancement, and Investment (BALADI) program,” the U.S. Embassy said in a statement. In her remarks, Ambassador Richard highlighted the USG’s “continued support to municipalities as key players in meeting the demand for essential services and advancing Lebanon’s economic prosperity, meeting the needs of citizens is the first duty of government.”
She also congratulated mayors for “their efforts to meet the needs of their communities from all geographic areas” and for “being selected to partner with USAID to make this development opportunity a reality.” The thirty-two municipalities that were selected for support in 2018 will benefit from project-funded equipment, technical assistance, and small-scale construction work. “At a time when national level electricity and other services are lacking, these local development projects will increase access to back-up electricity and local health services, enable the provision of water for irrigation and household use, and ensure income generation through agro-processing and entrepreneurship,” the Embassy said. “The projects are expected to improve the lives of more than 121,000 people by the end of the BALADI program in 2019. With this announcement, BALADI will be supporting a total of 87 projects in 23 districts across the country while engaging more than 150 municipalities,” it added.

Bulgarian Trial Begins over 2012 Bombing Blamed on Hizbullah
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/18/Two men allegedly linked to Hizbullah went on trial in absentia in Bulgaria on Wednesday over a deadly bomb attack on Israeli tourists in July 2012. The explosion outside Burgas airport's terminal building tore through a tourist bus bound for the popular beach resorts of the nearby Black Sea. Five Israelis, the vehicle's Bulgarian driver, and the man alleged to have planted the device, Franco-Lebanese national Mohamad Hassan El-Husseini, were killed. It remains unclear whether Husseini intended to die in the blast or if the device went off by accident. Bulgarian prosecutors filed charges in mid-2016 against his two alleged accomplices, whose whereabouts remain unknown despite an Interpol warrant. The two men were identified as Lebanese-Australian Meliad Farah and Lebanese-Canadian Hassan El Hajj Hassan, who prosecutors said had links to Hizbullah. "They will be tried in absentia for a terrorist attack and manslaughter of several people as well as for a range of other crimes such as document fraud and preparations for an act of terrorism," prosecutor Krasimir Trenchev told journalists. The attack, which was the deadliest hit against Israelis abroad since 2004, also left around 35 people injured. It played a role in a subsequent European Union decision to blacklist Hizbullah's military wing as a "terrorist" organization. On Wednesday the court heard testimony from several witnesses who were present at the airport at the time of the blast. Survivors and relatives are also expected to testify at a later date, although this could take place via video link from Israel. The next hearings were set for February 6 and 7. It was unclear how long the trial, the start of which has been delayed several times, will last.

Serbia Arrests Lebanese for Forging Documents in Drug Smuggling Case
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/18/Serbian police said Wednesday they have arrested three Australians and a Lebanese national in an operation to dismantle an international cocaine trafficking ring. The arrests at a Belgrade hotel followed a nine-month investigation led jointly with Australian authorities, an interior ministry statement said. The three Australians, identified by their initials and year of birth only, were involved in smuggling of 1,280 kilograms (2,820 pounds) of cocaine seized in Sydney. Investigators launched a probe in April 2017, after the drugs were seized in the port of Sydney in a container arriving from China, the ministry said. The Australians are suspected of being part of an "organized criminal group" and the Lebanese of "forging documents," it said. The suspects arrived in Belgrade to hand over the money, the ministry said without elaborating on the intended beneficiary. During the operation police seized 638,020 euros ($778,000) as well as cash in other currencies including Australian dollars, Japanese yens and the Czech crowns, along with a pistol. Serbia lies on the so-called Balkan route used by traffickers to smuggle drugs, weapons and people towards western Europe. In neighboring Montenegro, an Australian-Montenegrin man, described by local media as a Balkan drug kingpin, has been held in prison since mid-2017. Vaso Ulic is suspected of organizing the trafficking of 60 kilograms of MDMA -- commonly known as ecstasy -- to Australia from several countries between July 2007 and May 2008.

Report: Law Extending Voter Registration for Expats to Be Discussed in Cabinet
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/18/The government will convene in an ordinary meeting on Thursday to tackle several items on its agenda including an urgent draft law submitted by Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil to extend the deadline for voter registration of Lebanese living abroad, al-Joumhouria daily reported Wednesday. The government will convene before noon at the Grand Serail to discuss 71 items including the controversial draft law giving a bigger chance for Lebanese expatriates wishing to be part of the election process to register. Bassil has reportedly argued that expatriates may have been discouraged after the now-reversed resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri from Riyadh. He therefore wishes to give them additional chance now that the political process is “back to normal” after the Premier's return to Lebanon. However, Speaker Nabih Berri has reiterated that he rejects any amendments be made to the electoral law after it has been approved by the parliament. Furthermore, the government will discuss the request of the Interior Ministry to provide staff in the commission tasked with supervising the electoral process, and the request of the Foreign Minster to establish consulates in different capitals and cities, and the Defense Ministry's request to form a special committee to prepare for the special Rome II conference, according to the daily. Ministers are to also discuss the implementation of an agreement to expand the major waste landfills of Costa Brava and Burj Hammoud and the establishment of a waste recycling plant in al-Amrusieh based on a proposal by the Council for Development and Reconstruction.

Women in Parliament: EU Supports Participation of Lebanese Women in Elections
Naharnet/January 17/18/EU Ambassador to Lebanon Christina Lassen on Wednesday opened the conference “Fostering the role of political parties to promote women representation in the upcoming parliamentary elections 2018". Addressing the audience, Lassen said women in Lebanon “need to feel that they are inspired.”“They need to feel empowered and know that they have a very important role to play in shaping Lebanon's economic, social and political life," Lassen added. In her opening remarks, the ambassador said: "Equality between men and women is part of the core values of the EU. It is a top priority for us, both in our internal policies and in our relations with our partners. We believe that not only is the equal participation of women and men a fundamental and essential right, but also that gender equality contributes to more inclusive, balanced and representative societies.""I encourage all political parties to recruit women party candidates and to place them high on their ballot lists," she added. In their opening remarks, Minister of State for Women's Affairs Jean Oghassabian, Minister of Interior and Municipalities Nouhad al-Mashnouq and Acting U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Pernille Kardel also shared views, ideas and suggestions on possible ways to increase the representation of Lebanese women as candidates in parliamentary elections in the absence of a quota for women in the new electoral law, and to strengthen the fairness and inclusiveness of the 2018 parliamentary elections.
The percentage of women's representation in the Lebanese Parliament being historically low (the current Parliament includes 4 women out of the 128 MPs), the conference addressed the need to discuss gender and elections. It emphasized the importance for political parties to include women candidates on their lists. The conference presented a roadmap that puts forward alternatives to the quota to increase women’s participation in politics and help advocating and influencing to support the inclusion of women in public life, such as encouraging political parties to nominate women in the upcoming elections, including by implementing a voluntary quota.

Warnings of Fallout after US Freezes Funding for Palestinian Refugees
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/18/ The UN agency for Palestinian refugees warned Wednesday it faced its worst funding crisis ever after the White House froze tens of millions of dollars in contributions, a move Palestinian leaders decried as cruel and blatantly biased. The agency provides Palestinian refugees and their descendants across the Middle East with services including schools and medical care, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long accused it of hostility toward Israel and called for its closure. Some five million Palestinians are eligible for its services. On Tuesday, the United States held back $65 million that had been destined for the agency, two weeks after President Donald Trump threatened future payments. The United States is the largest contributor to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine refugees (UNRWA). "The US has announced it will contribute $60 million to the programme budget. There is for the moment no other indication of possible funding," UNRWA spokesman Chris Gunness told AFP. "This dramatically reduced contribution results in the most severe funding crisis in the history of the agency."​Senior Palestinian officials reacted with outrage to what they see as another move against them by Trump's White House following his declaration of Jerusalem as Israel's capital.
Hanan Ashrawi, a senior member of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, said the freeze amounted to "cruelty" toward an "innocent and vulnerable population."The Palestinian envoy to Washington, Husam Zomlot, said: "Palestinian refugees and children's access to basic humanitarian services, such as food, health care and education, is not a bargaining chip but a US and international obligation.”Palestinian officials also accused Trump of chipping away at issues long considered up for negotiation as part of a comprehensive resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including the status of Jerusalem and the plight of refugees. Around 500 people protested in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday against the freeze. - 'Why should we?' -The funding freeze comes with relations between the Palestinians and Washington already on the brink. On Sunday, Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas denounced Trump's peace efforts as the "slap of the century," while Palestinian leaders have threatened to suspend their recognition of Israel. US State Department officials insisted the decision to freeze the funding was taken not to pressure Palestinian leaders but to encourage other countries to help pay for and reform UNRWA. But the call came after a behind-the-scenes tussle between hawks who want to cut all aid to Palestinians and officials concerned about the humanitarian and diplomatic fallout. The State Department said $60 million of what had been a planned $125 million package would go through to keep the agency running, but the rest will be withheld for now. UNRWA chief Pierre Krahenbuhl expressed alarm and immediately called on other UN members to contribute.
"At stake is the access of 525,000 boys and girls in 700 UNRWA schools, and their future," he said in a statement. Krahenbuhl said the $60 million would keep schools and hospitals open for now, but noted that it was dramatically less than the $350 million Washington paid during 2017.
The State Department's position raised scepticism in the light of tweets sent by Trump on January 2, at the time when the $125 million contribution had been due to be paid. "We pay the Palestinians HUNDRED OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS a year and get no appreciation or respect," Trump said.
"They don't even want to negotiate a long overdue peace treaty with Israel," he protested, adding: "Why should we make any of these massive future payments to them?"
Vulnerable populations -Following Trump's outburst, it was reported that his ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley had been pushing for a complete end to US support for UNRWA.
But voluntary payments from the United States are the biggest single source of funding for the agency, and other US officials opposed an immediate and total suspension. Still, even as US officials said the decision was not aimed at the Palestinians but intended to provoke UN reform, Israel welcomed it as a victory. Israel's UN envoy Danny Danon alleged the agency misuses aid and "supports anti-Israel propaganda, perpetuates the plight of Palestinian refugees and encourages hate." Netanyahu said during a trip to India that "this is the first time that UNRWA is being challenged," Israeli media reported.
"For 70 years, this organisation has been perpetuating the situation of Palestinian refugees and the narrative of the abolition of Zionism. It's the first time that all of that has been challenged." But many analysts, including Israelis, warn that closing or crippling the agency without an effective replacement could lead to further poverty and perhaps violence. Netanyahu said "there is always a certain amount of risk" with such decisions. UNRWA has provided health care, emergency aid and schooling to Palestinians since 1950.
It was formed in the wake of Israel's creation in 1948 and the war surrounding it, when hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were either forced from their homes or fled. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he was "very concerned" by reports of the freeze. "UNRWA is not a Palestinian institution, but a UN institution," he said.

After initial ban, Lebanon allows Spielberg’s 'The Post'
MEE and agencies/Wednesday 17 January 2018
Lebanese interior minister says no need for ban because the film has no connection to Lebanon or conflict with Israel
The Lebanese government has allowed the release of Steven Spielberg's latest film, "The Post", overturning a ban by the General Security authority, the interior ministry said on Wednesday. The security body had on Monday announced it was banning the Hollywood thriller to comply with an Arab League boycott targeting supporters of Israel. The pan-Arab body maintains a regional boycott of Israel, and blacklisted Spielberg after he donated $1m to Israel during its destructive 2006 war on Lebanon. The two countries are still technically in a state of war. After being accused of being critical of Israel in 2006, following the release of his movie Munich, Spielberg, who is Jewish American, told German magazine Der Spiegel: “If it became necessary, I would be prepared to die for the USA and for Israel.” In a rare move, the interior ministry chose not to sign off on the decision by General Security, which in addition to controlling Lebanon's borders, is responsible for censoring films, plays, and books. In a statement, it said Interior Minister Nohad Mashnouk "sees no objection to the broadcast of the film", which "has no connection with Lebanon, or to the conflict with the Israeli enemy". The company distributing the film in Lebanon confirmed that the film, starring Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks, would be released in cinemas in Beirut and elsewhere on Thursday. The acclaimed production tells the behind-the-scenes story of the 1971 publication by The Washington Post of the Pentagon Papers, which exposed the lies behind US involvement in the Vietnam War. Lebanon is divided on the boycott-driven bans, with some welcoming them as a bulwark against the "cultural normalisation" of Israel's occupation. The initial ban against the movie faced a backlash, with critics slamming it as unjustified censorship. Free speech advocate Gino Raidy hailed the decision as a triumph for reason. “The overreaching hand of censorship has gone too far, too many times,” he wrote on his blog. Last year, Lebanon banned Hollywood blockbuster Wonder Woman because lead actress Gal Gadot had served in Israel's military. French-Lebanese director Ziad Doueiri was held for questioning by Lebanese authorities in September over his film The Attack, which was partially shot in Israel. Banned films can often be found in bootleg movie shops across the country for as little as one dollar, and even blacklisted books can sometimes be found in regular bookstores.

‘Beirut’ Movie Trailer Sparks Uproar in Lebanon, Calls for Ban
Beirut – Vivian Haddad/Asharq Al Awsat/January 17/2018 /
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=61849
No sooner had the trailer of the Hollywood movie “Beirut” been released that social media was in uproar with calls for its ban in Lebanon.
The movie, shot in Morocco in 2016, is directed by Brad Anderson and tells the story of an American diplomat, played by Jon Hamm, who left Beirut in 1972 following his family’s death. He is called back to the city by the CIA ten years later in order to rescue a friend, who was kidnapped by an extremist group.
The screenplay was written by Tony Gilroy and audiences are familiar with Hamm, who earned critical acclaim for his starring role in the TV show “Mad Men”. The movie also stars Rosamund Pike, who earned an Oscar nomination for her starring role in the 2014 movie “Gone Girl”.
The 150-second trailer of “Beirut” depicts a city that has been destroyed by the country’s 1975-90 civil war. Images of explosions and gunmen are contrasted with images of children playing with plastic guns. Others show heavy tanks and weapons and buildings ravaged by war. A short scene in particular stoked anger across social media in Lebanon for depicting a very rudimentary sign indicating “Beirut Airport”. Vegetable vendors were also shown at the facility in a scene that social media users said did not accurately reflect the reality at the time. Others slammed the “Beirut Airport” sign, saying that their country’s airport had never been depicted in such a poor manner.
The movie has been described as “scandal” by Lebanese people, pointing out that not a single aspect of the movie is Lebanese, neither the cast, the accents, soundtrack or actual location. Culture Minister Ghattas Khoury was the first to condemn the movie’s depiction of the Lebanese capital, while a campaign has been launched on social media to ban the film. One activist asked on Facebook: “‘Welcome to Beirut’ … How can this be the opening line of a trailer of a movie that was shot in Morocco?” Lebanese censors have not yet taken the decision on whether to release the movie in theaters on April 13, which ironically marks the anniversary of the eruption of the civil war. The censors have not yet received a copy of the movie. Veteran Lebanese movie critic, Emile Chahine told Asharq Al-Awsat that the uproar over “Beirut” will ultimately help promote it even if it was not release in Lebanon. “We will definitely not accept the release of a movie that harms Lebanon’s image. More importantly however, it should be banned worldwide because its reflects a negative image of our country.” The calls for the ban of “Beirut” comes after Lebanon banned "Jungle", a survival drama about Israeli adventurer Yossi Ghinsberg, who got lost in an uncharted part of the Bolivian Amazon in 1981.  The film, starring Daniel Radcliffe, had been screening for two weeks in Lebanon but is now being pulled, a General Security official said on condition of anonymity, explaining that the decision followed a number of complaints. In May, Lebanon banned the “Wonder Woman” movie because its lead actress, Gal Gadot, is an Israeli. On Wednesday, and in a rare reversal, Lebanon’s Interior Ministry announced that Steven Spielberg’s “The Post” will be distributed in theaters after overturning a ban by the General Security authority, a senior official said. The security body had on Monday announced it was banning the Hollywood thriller to comply with an Arab League boycott targeting supporters of Israel. The Interior Ministry however chose not to sign off on the decision by General Security, which in addition to controlling Lebanon's borders, is responsible for censoring films, plays, and books. "Interior Minister Nohad Mashnouq is going to allow the film to be shown," a senior ministry official told AFP. The company distributing the film in Lebanon confirmed that the film, starring Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks would be released in cinemas in Beirut and elsewhere on Thursday. The acclaimed production tells the behind-the-scenes story of the 1971 publication by The Washington Post of the Pentagon Papers, which exposed the lies behind US involvement in the Vietnam War.

Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 17-18/18
US to have open-ended presence in Syria
Reuters, Palo Alto, California/January 17/18/The United States signaled on Wednesday an open-ended military presence in Syria as part of a broader US strategy to prevent Islamic State’s resurgence, pave the way diplomatically for the eventual departure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and curtail Iran’s influence. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, in a speech at Stanford University, made clear the United States would work diplomatically toward Assad’s exit from power, but called for “patience” - an acknowledgment that Assad has been bolstered by Russia and Iran and is unlikely to leave power immediately. Tillerson’s urging of patience was the clearest indication yet of Washington’s acknowledgment that Assad’s stronger position in Syria, bolstered by Russia and Iran, meant he would not leave power immediately. Billed as the Trump administration’s new strategy on Syria, the announcement will prolong the risks and redefine the mission for the US military, which has for years sought to define its operations in Syria along more narrow lines of battling Islamic State and has about 2,000 US ground forces in the country. While much of the US strategy would focus on diplomatic efforts, Tillerson said: “But let us be clear: the United States will maintain a military presence in Syria, focused on ensuring ISIS cannot re-emerge,” while acknowledging many Americans’ skepticism of military involvement in conflicts abroad, Tillerson said. US forces in Syria have already faced direct threats from Syrian and Iranian-backed forces in the country, leading to the shoot-down of Iranian drones and a Syrian jet last year, as well as to tensions with Russia. Trump administration officials, including Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, had previously disclosed elements of the policy but Tillerson’s speech was meant to formalize and clearly define it. A US disengagement from Syria would provide Iran with an opportunity to reinforce its position in Syria, Tillerson said. As candidate, US President Donald Trump was critical of his predecessors’ military interventions in the Middle East and Afghanistan. As president, Trump had to commit to an open-ended presence in Afghanistan and, now, Syria. The transition to what appears to be open-ended stability operations in Syria could leave those US-backed forces vulnerable to shifting alliances, power struggles and miscommunications as Assad’s allies and enemies vie for greater control of post-war Syria. After nearly seven years of war, hundreds of thousands Syrians killed and a humanitarian disaster, Tillerson asked nations to keep up economic pressure on Assad but provide aid to areas no longer under Islamic State’s control. “Our expectation is that the desire for a return to normal life and these tools of pressure will help rally the Syrian people and individuals within the regime to compel Assad to step aside,” Tillerson said. The top US diplomat said Washington would carry out “stabilization initiatives” such as clearing landmines and restoring basic utilities in areas no longer under Islamic State control, while making clear that “‘stabilization’ is not a synonym for open-ended nation-building or a synonym for reconstruction.But it is essential.” Tillerson said the United States would “vigorously support” a United Nations process to end the conflict, a so-far stalled process. He called on Russia, a main supporter of Assad, to “put new levels of pressure” on the Syrian government to “credibly engage” with UN peace efforts. The United Nations Special Envoy for Syria said on Wednesday he had invited the Syrian government and opposition to a special meeting to be held next week in Vienna. But it was not immediately clear how or why Moscow would heed Washington’s oft-repeated demands.

British MPs Approve Landmark Brexit Bill, Send it to Lords
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/18/British MPs gave the green light on Wednesday to a landmark Brexit bill after weeks of debate and a damaging government defeat, but the legislation now faces a battle in the upper chamber. The House of Commons voted by a majority of 29 to approve the EU (Withdrawal) Bill, which repeals the 1972 law that made Britain a member of the European Union and transfers four decades of EU rules onto the British statute books. "This bill is essential for preparing the country for the historic milestone of withdrawing from the European Union," Brexit Secretary David Davis told MPs ahead of the vote. "It ensures that on day one, we'll have a statue book that works, delivering a smooth and orderly exit desired by people, businesses across the United Kingdom and being delivered by this government."However, the unelected upper House of Lords may insist on further changes when peers begin their scrutiny on January 30, while ministers still face opposition from the devolved Scottish and Welsh administrations. The bill is only one of several that Prime Minister Theresa May's minority government must pass to prepare Britain for its withdrawal from the EU in March 2019.
'Big battles' ahead
MPs had tabled more than 500 amendments and spent more than 80 hours in debate, and Davis said the legislation was heading to the Lords in an "improved" state. But Keir Starmer, Brexit spokesman for the main opposition Labor party, said ministers ignored its concerns and the bill was "still not fit for purpose." The draft legislation passed by 324 votes to 295. Opposition to the bill focused on its sweeping powers to change EU regulations as they are transferred and to authorize any Brexit agreement with the bloc. Eleven members of May's Conservative party joined with opposition lawmakers last month to force a change ensuring that parliament will have a "meaningful vote" on the final withdrawal deal. Fearful of another loss, the government conceded to give MPs the power to amend the date and time of Brexit, set out in the bill as 2300 GMT on March 29, 2019, if talks with the EU appeared to overrun.
But Conservative MP Kenneth Clarke, a passionate europhile, said parliament's handling of the bill so far was "pathetic" and said he hoped the Lords would make an "enormous number of changes."Peers are overwhelmingly pro-European, but they are mindful of their role to scrutinize, not block, legislation.A source in the opposition Labor party in the Lords told AFP there were "going to be big battles" in the coming months on constitutional issues.
'Undo what we've done'
The Scottish National Party (SNP) made a last ditch attempt to thwart the bill, which would see policymaking in devolved areas returned from Brussels to London, and not to the local executive in Edinburgh. SNP lawmaker Ian Blackford warned the government it could trigger a "constitutional crisis" with its plans, which have also drawn anger from Wales. In the final debate in the Commons on Wednesday, other pro-European MPs took the opportunity to criticize the government's Brexit strategy. Justine Greening, who resigned as May's education secretary this month, warned that if Brexit did not work for young people, they may seek to "improve or undo what we've done."
- 'Hearts still open'
After reaching a deal on the key separation issues in December, Britain is due to start talks with the EU this month on a transition deal before moving on to the future relationship. Britain wants a new trade agreement to replace its membership of the EU's single market and customs union, although critics warn it has unrealistic expectations.Leading Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage has suggested he might be open to a second referendum in Britain on EU membership, to silence critics.European Council President Donald Tusk responded that the EU's "hearts were still open" if Britain changed its mind, a sentiment echoed by European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker.However, a spokesman for May insisted Wednesday: "We are leaving the European Union."

60 percent of State Department’s top-ranking career diplomats have left: report
BY REBECCA SAVRANSKY/The Hill/January 17/18/About 60 percent of top-ranking career diplomats have left the State Department, McClatchy reported.
The number of people seeking to join the foreign service has also decreased, with applications dropping by half, according to the news outlet, which cited recent data from the American Foreign Service Association. Last week's resignation of the U.S. ambassador to Panama also resulted in people serving at the State Department raising questions about their own work there, it added. John Feeley resigned from his post, saying he can no longer serve under Trump. “Given what happened in the last few days, people are wondering how are they going to be effective in an environment like this,” a U.S. official who works regularly with the State Department told McClatchy. “It’s one thing for us to go in and slam our hands on the table and say this is what we want ... It’s another to denigrate them and make it crystal clear this is what our leadership thinks about them in the vulgarest of terms.”Feeley submitted his resignation letter before reports that Trump, during a meeting with lawmakers at the White House, referred to Haiti, El Salvador and African nations as "shithole countries," according to McClatchy. Some other officials in the State Department reportedly have since questioned whether they are serving productively in their roles. Still, one State Department official told McClatchy that there is a "sense of duty to carry out what we've been trained [to do]."

Macron Criticizes EU Rules on Migrants
Asharq Al Awsat/January 17/2018 /President Emmanuel Macron has blasted EU policy on migrants as he visited Calais where lied the Jungle, a squalid shantytown near the northern city's port that was once home to some 10,000 migrants dreaming of Britain. In a closely watched speech in Calais, Macron promised a more orderly immigration policy with zero tolerance for camps like the Jungle. "There will be no reconstruction of the Jungle and no tolerance for the illegal occupation of public space," Agence France Presse quoted Macron as saying in his speech at a Calais police station. While the Jungle was demolished in late 2016, hundreds of migrants remain in Calais, trying night after night to stow away on trucks heading across the Channel to England. He joined a chorus of criticism for the EU's "Dublin" rules which say asylum seekers must be dealt with in the country where they arrive, creating a huge burden for frontline states like Italy. But he ruled out suggesting migrants should be able to apply for asylum in any EU country, saying this would "strip the entry country of their responsibilities". France gave out 262,000 residence permits last year -- a 13.7 percent hike in a year and 35 percent of them to refugees, the interior ministry said Tuesday.

Trump Visit Set to Blot Out Davos Meet
Asharq Al Awsat/January 17/2018 /Minutes after the White House announced the participation of US President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, speculation began between journalists and politicians about the content of his speech Thursday, whether he would adopt a conciliatory tone or promote his slogan "America First."Trump's planned visit to the five-day event next week will likely eclipse the long list of other movers and shakers set to attend. The WEF on Tuesday unveiled its lineup for the annual meeting at the luxury Swiss ski resort town, where this year's focus is on how to create "a shared future in a fractured world." "We need collaborative efforts," WEF founder and executive chairman Klaus Schwab told reporters in Geneva, warning: "There is today a real danger of a collapse of our global systems... It is in our hands to change the state of the world." But ironically this year's main attraction will be Trump, who is widely blamed for deepening a number of diplomatic rifts and creating new ones with polarising policy and rhetoric. Since taking office a year ago, he has doubled down on his "America First" agenda, which stands in stark contrast to the globalization and regulatory integration popular among the Davos crowd. The forum kicks off Monday and is expected to draw some 3,000 political and business elites, including 70 heads of state and government. But attention is expected to be focused squarely on Trump, who will be the first sitting US president to attend the meeting since Bill Clinton in 2000. A string of US presidents have avoided attending the upscale event, fearing a sojourn to a European ski resort would make them look out of touch. But Trump is expected to use the opportunity to thumb his nose at the elites who flock to Davos -- a festival of globalism drawing many of his most virulent critics. Trump has sparked alarm over his decision to pull the United States out of the Paris climate accord, as well as his barrage of criticism against the World Trade Organization and various UN agencies. He has also pushed tensions to the boiling point with nuclear-armed North Korea and more recently reportedly branded Haiti, El Salvador and countries across Africa as "shitholes".Schwab said he was thrilled that the US president would attend, pointing out that a major topic of discussion at Davos would be "the future of global cooperation" on issues like trade, the environment and the fight against terrorism. "It is absolutely essential to have President Trump with us," he said. The White House has said he will be accompanied by a large delegation, including his son-in-law and advisor Jared Kushner, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. As something of a counterweight, former US vice president Al Gore and the country's former top diplomat John Kerry, both Democrats, will also be present. Trump is slated to deliver a speech before the end of the meeting on Friday, WEF said. This year's line-up will also be headlined by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who will give the keynote address on Tuesday, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who is scheduled to address the forum on Wednesday. British Prime Minister Theresa May and her Canadian counterpart Justin Trudeau will attend, as will Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu. The presidents of Brazil, Colombia, Zimbabwe, Switzerland and the European Commission will also be there, along with the kings of Jordan and Spain. United Nations chief Antonio Guterres will attend, flanked by the heads of the UN agencies for trade, health, labor and human rights, as well as the heads of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The business world will also be well represented, with the leaders of some 1,900 companies expected to be on hand. Furthermore, trying to keep in step with the global zeitgeist, WEF organizers boast that the share of women participants this year will be the highest ever at 21 percent. Among them are high-profile co-chairs including IMF chief Christine Lagarde, head of IBM Ginni Rometty and Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg. Also, a number of Hollywood stars will also be present this year, including movie legend Cate Blanchette.

UAE: Qatari violations against Emirati planes systematic, endangers civilians
Al Arabiya English/January 17/18/Qatari violations against Emirati aircrafts have become systematic behavior that puts civilian lives at risk, a statement from UAE’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday. “Representatives of the UAE Armed Forces and the Civil Aviation Authority, in a meeting organized by the UAE’s foreign ministry at its headquarters in Abu Dhabi in the presence of ambassadors of the Security Council from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt, reviewed the reality of the Qatari escalation of the threatening civil and military aviation. A presentation was made that included coordinates and radar images documenting country violations,” a statement on state news agency WAM read. The UAE is expected to address the issue with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) on serious Qatari violations for intercepting two Emirates planes on their routine journeys to Bahrain on Monday. Bahrain has released footage showing radars tracks that detected the Qatari jets as they intercepted two UAE civilian flights. The first incident involved Emirates Flight EK837 while the second involved Etihad flight EY23B traveling from Abu Dhabi International Airport to Bahrain International Airport.

Gargash: Qatar flight interception shows signs of worry, confusion
Al Arabiya English/January 17/18/The UAE’s Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash has said that the Qatari interception of the two passenger planes is an attempt toward escalation stemming from worry and confusion. “The recent developments in the Qatari crisis and their interception of passenger planes has two explanations,” Gargash said in a tweet on Wednesday. “The first is that it is an escalation stemming from worry and confusion, and the second is a desperate attempt fearing marginalization. Our response will be balanced and legal and its aim will be to secure flight routes and passenger’s lives,” he added. The Qatari fighter jet had intercepted two civil aircrafts on Monday en route to Bahrain International Airport while on their regular daily routes. The first incident involved Emirates Flight EK837 while the second involved Etihad flight EY23B traveling from Abu Dhabi International Airport to Bahrain International Airport.

Arab Coalition destroys Houthi missile launch bases along Saudi border
Al Arabiya English/January 17/18/The Arab Coalition’s air force destroyed Houthi missile launch bases on Tuesday night that were placed along the Saudi Arabian border. Saudi air defense forces also intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile targeting the port city of Jazan early Tuesday. Air defense forces had intercepted another Houthi missile early Janaury launched from Yemen towards Najran, with no deaths or injuries reported. Meanwhile, a Yemeni source said that the Yemeni army is continuing to advance in the Saada governorate, the stronghold of the Houthi militia. He said that tense battles took place between both sides in the strategic area of the al-Alib mountains. The army was able to liberate various sites behind these mountains in the past two days, capturing five Houthis in the process and recovering large quantities of weapons and ammunition.

Saudi preacher Abdul Muhsin Al-Tuwaijri shot dead in Guinea village
Al Arabiya English/January 17/18/A Saudi Arabian preacher was shot dead in Guinea’s east after organizing a prayer service that angered some villagers in the majority-Muslim West African country, local sources said Wednesday.
Sheikh Abdul Muhsin Al-Tuwaijri was a member of a mission building mosques in Upper Guinea and was killed on Tuesday night in the village of Kantebalandougou, between the towns Kankan and Kerouane. He was “shot twice in the chest while riding a motorcycle with a villager on the way to get his car,” a security source told AFP. “The Saudi died at the scene while his companion, who owned the motorcycle, was seriously injured and taken to a hospital in Kankan,” said a medical source.

Jolani Urges Rebels to 'Close Ranks' against Regime
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/18/The head of Syria's leading jihadist alliance called on rebels Tuesday to "close ranks" to fend off a Russian-backed government offensive in the country's northwest. It was Abu Mohamed al-Jolani's first audio recording since Russia claimed in October to have carried out an air strike that left the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) commander in a coma. Moscow is now backing a weeks-long assault by Syrian troops on HTS's stronghold in the northwest province of Idlib, and Jolani on Tuesday appealed to the fragmented rebel movement to unite against it. "For 100 days, we have been fighting one of the fiercest battles on all levels," Jolani said in an audio statement released by HTS media. Some opposition factions have long refrained from fighting alongside HTS, most recently because of a "de-escalation" agreement in areas including Idlib that was brokered by world powers in Astana last year. Jolani blasted the Astana deal as paving the way for the current offensive, but said Syria's rebels could "overcome these crises, if we unite our efforts and close ranks." "We are ready to reconcile with everyone and turn a new page through a comprehensive reconciliation... Let us preoccupy ourselves with our enemies more than with ourselves and our disagreements," Jolani said. The jihadist leader said Syria's uprising was facing a "critical phase" as it nears its seven-year anniversary in March. Rebels and hardline Islamists overran Idlib province in 2015, and it remains the only province in the war-ravaged country outside of regime control. For the past two years, the jihadist forces behind HTS have steadily expanded their control in the province, with the influence of mainstream fighters shrinking drastically. Syria's army launched its push for Idlib late last year and has since recaptured dozens of towns and villages in the province. The United Nations said Tuesday it had recorded 200,000 cases of displacement since mid-December as a result of the intensifying assault. Since it erupted in 2011, Syria's conflict has forced millions out of their homes, with many being displaced multiple times over, and more than 340,000 people have been killed.

Catalan MPs Elect Separatist Speaker as Sacked Leader Eyes Comeback
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 17/18/Catalan lawmakers on Wednesday elected a separatist as parliamentary speaker, the first stage of a plan by pro-independence deputies to get regional leader Carles Puigdemont, in self-exile in Belgium, back into power. As MPs met for the first time since a failed bid to break from Spain, protesters waving separatist flags gathered outside the assembly in Barcelona where pro-independence parties are in the majority after winning regional elections on December 21. With 70 out of 135 deputies, they largely favor Puigdemont as candidate for regional president. He was sacked by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy along with his cabinet on October 27 after the regional parliament declared unilateral independence, sparking a major political crisis in Spain and sending shock waves across Europe.
Control of parliament key
Despite being in Belgium, Puigdemont wants to make a comeback and govern the deeply divided region, though what he plans to do if he manages this remains a mystery. For separatist lawmakers, the first step towards this was to secure control of parliament by getting one of their supporters elected as speaker. They did precisely that on Wednesday, with 65 lawmakers voting for Roger Torrent, the 38-year-old member of the leftwing separatist ERC party, against 56 who cast their ballot for an anti-independence candidate. They also got four supporters elected as deputy parliamentary speakers out of seven. These make sure assembly rules are respected and will decide whether Puigdemont and others are allowed to be lawmakers while remaining out of the country. Including the former Catalan president, five separatists are abroad and risk arrest on charges of rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds for their role in the failed independence bid if they come back to Spain. A further three pro-independence lawmakers are in jail pending a probe into similar charges. Large yellow ribbons that have come to represent support for those in jail were placed on parliamentary seats Wednesday. In his first speech as speaker, Torrent said the priority would be to end Madrid's unpopular direct rule on Catalonia, imposed after the declaration of independence. He added he wanted to "help look for understanding and dialogue in Catalonia's political life." Lawmakers ended the session by singing the Catalan hymn, and separatist MPs shouted "long live a free Catalonia" and "freedom," briefly applauded by Torrent.
Sworn in via videolink?
To be elected president, Puigdemont should in theory be present at a later parliamentary session where the vote to name a new leader takes place, but he wants to appear by videolink or write a speech and have it read by someone else. The Catalan parliament's rules stipulate that the candidate for the regional presidency must "present his or her government program to parliament." It does not detail whether this must be done in person, but several legal experts, the opposition and the central government insist it cannot be done remotely. Rajoy's government has warned Madrid will maintain direct control over Catalonia if Puigdemont attempts to govern from Belgium, which could lead to yet another crisis. If there is no agreement over a regional president, fresh elections would be called. Madrid's direct rule has proven very unpopular in a region that had enjoyed considerable autonomy before its leaders attempted to break away from Spain. According to Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, the secession crisis that kicked off on October 1 when Catalan leaders held an independence referendum despite a court ban has taken a financial toll. He has said the crisis has slowed economic growth in the region at an estimated cost of one billion euros ($1.2 billion). More than 3,000 companies have moved their legal headquarters out of the region as uncertainty persists.

Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 17-18/18
Europe's Betrayal of the Iranian People
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/January 17/2018
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11750/europe-iran-betrayal
The alliance between Saudi Arabia and the United States seems intended to contain the Iranian regime, and not, as falsely advertised by President Barack Obama, to prevent a nuclear program.
Leaders of Western Europe know exactly what the mullahs' regime is, and what its goals and activities are. They know it is the world's main sponsor of Islamic terrorism. They know the disastrous state of Iran's society and economy, but they prefer to play deaf and dumb. All they think about, it seems, are the contracts they sign with the mullahs to get more money. They do not care about the suffering of Iranians; the chaos, massacres and destruction caused by the regime. They know that the nuclear deal is constantly violated by the self-policing regime, and that a nuclear bomb is in the making. They are aware that the regime has close ties with North Korea, and that both are global threats.
The EU's chief diplomat, Federica Mogherini, has hypocritically called "all parties concerned to abstain from violence", as if there were a moral equivalence between unarmed protesters and killer militias with weapons of war. Meanwhile, in Iranian prisons, protesters were being arrested and tortured to death.
Leaders of Western Europe like to boast how they respect human rights, yet they are the ones trampling on them.
It is hard to know exactly the current situation in Iran, but the uprising seems to be fading . The mullahs' regime might survive a little longer.
The overthrow of a totalitarian regime takes place when the security forces -- which ensure the survival of a regime that has been ruling through repression and fear -- begin to falter, or else when the number of angry people becomes so big that a tidal wave sweeps away all in its path.
This time, Iranian security forces remained loyal to the regime and angry people were too few. The regime could manage the situation by killing a few dozen protesters, arresting four thousand
more, torturing and murdering some of them, and cutting off access to digital networks. It is a defeat not only for the Iranian people, but for all who defend freedom.
The defeat, however, is temporary.
What happened now was different from what happened eight years ago. The 2009 protests took place mostly in Tehran and opposed a rigged election. No one questioned the system. This time, the protests spread throughout the country and opposed the entire system. Slogans referred to Ali Khamenei and Hassan Rouhani as dictators. Some protesters spoke favorably of Reza Shah, the founder of the dynasty overthrown in 1979. The protests also overflowed with fury that the regime had supported terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas. The $100 billion in assets unfrozen by the July 2015 nuclear deal were expected to be used to improve the well-being of Iranian citizen. That did not happen.
The regime can only calm the pervasive anger if it changes its policies radically. That is the one thing it cannot do.
The mullahs' reign, born from an Islamic revolution, derives its "legitimacy" from that and the promise of carrying it further. The regime cannot stop supporting terrorism without ceasing to be itself. Iran's "Supreme Guide," Ali Khamenei, constantly speaks of "apocalypse" and "holy war against America and the West." He speaks about the urgent need to destroy Israel and "liberate" Jerusalem. He cannot give a different speech without undermining himself and being called an impostor by those who still support him. President Hassan Rouhani has no real power; he is just there to provide a "moderate" façade for people who still want to fantasize that a moderate actually exists in a regime that is fanatic.
Even if the mullahs decided to give a few crumbs to the population, politically they cannot do it.
Iran's economy is in terrible shape. Much of the infrastructure is worn out. Water resources, badly managed, are vanishing. The banking system has disintegrated: in 2017 alone, five banks and investment funds collapsed; in coming months, others will, too. Pension funds are bankrupt: hundreds of thousands of old people have lost everything they owned. Millions of young Iranians, highly qualified, cannot find jobs; they are unemployed and frustrated. Drugs and prostitution are widespread. Venereal diseases proliferate. The birth rate is in free fall, condemning the society to aging rapidly.
The vast sums of cash made available in 2015 by US President Barack Obama have already been wasted or spent. They have sunk into the circuits of corruption and bank accounts of terrorist organizations that the regime supports. They have also been invested in deadly acts in Yemen, Syria and Iraq.
No miraculous "savior" exists; even if one did, the regime would quickly eliminate him. Iran is heading for a massive collapse. The regime's leaders know it.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is more than ever the regime's Praetorian guard and ready to defend it to the end. The IRGC would not hesitate to massacre just about everyone. This year, more than twenty people were killed; if things get worse, if the regime feels threatened, the number will be far higher.
The regime has not stopped its race for nuclear might. It has already given the terrorist groups it controls sophisticated weapons that many armies do not own. Hezbollah has at least 150,000 long-range missiles and rockets; it is, according to estimates, the world's "best-equipped non-state fighting force."
If the regime feels near its end, it will fight. Europeans, nonetheless, are trying to avoid a confrontation.
Western governments could limit the damage by telling the Iranian people that they are not alone and pressuring the regime.
Unlike the Obama administration, US President Donald J. Trump seems to have been going his better instincts and allowing his timid State Department the benefit of a doubt.
The alliance between Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Gulf monarchies, Israel and the United States seems intended to contain the regime, and not, as falsely advertised by former US President Barack Obama, to prevent a nuclear program.
Revising the nuclear deal with Iran opens the door to sanctions against the regime, but enables the mullahs to buy more time in which to complete their nuclear program.
President Trump's speech to the United Nations last fall denounced the danger of the regime while reaching out to Iranians. During recent protests, President Trump said, "the world is watching" and "that the good people of Iran want change". Nikki Haley, America's ambassador to the United Nations, said that "a long-oppressed people is rising up against their dictators," and that "all freedom loving people must stand with their cause."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, also sees the regime as the main threat to his country, the region and the planet.
Leaders of Western Europe are following a very different line. They know exactly what the mullahs' regime is, and what its goals and activities are. They know that the regime has been, and is, the world's main sponsor of Islamic terrorism. They know the disastrous state of Iran's society and economy, but they prefer to play deaf and dumb. All they think about, it seems, are the contracts they sign with the mullahs to get more money. They do not care about the suffering of Iranians; the chaos, massacres and destruction caused by the regime. They know that the nuclear deal is constantly violated by the self-policing regime, and that a nuclear bomb is in the making. They are aware that the regime has close ties with North Korea, and that both are global threats. Yet, they choose appeasement at its venal worst. During the uprising, they were on the side of the oppressors. The Europeans were just waiting for the mullahs to prevail, so they could resume doing business as if nothing had taken place.
French President Emmanuel Macron says he is planning an official visit to Tehran. He did not have a single word of support for the people of Iran or for the victims of the terrorist groups armed and financed by the regime. He criticized neither Khamenei nor Rouhani; he focused all negative remarks instead on the Trump administration and Israel. He said that by placing themselves on the side of freedom for the Iranians, they were "creating a risk of war."
German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel called for "calm" in Iran and asked the United States to "re-engage" with the men whom the protesters called dictators. EU's chief diplomat, Federica Mogherini, has hypocritically called "all parties concerned to abstain from violence", as if there were a moral equivalence between unarmed protesters and killer militias with weapons of war. Gabriel and Mogherini decided to invite to Brussels Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. He came and met them, along with French and British Foreign Ministers, on January 11. Zarif said that the meeting showed a "strong consensus" between all those present. Meanwhile, in Iranian prisons, protesters were being arrested and tortured to death and their families intimidated.
The EU's chief diplomat, Federica Mogherini, has hypocritically called "all parties concerned to abstain from violence" in Iran, as if there were a moral equivalence between unarmed protesters and killer militias with weapons of war. Pictured: Mogherini (left) stands with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, during her August 2017 visit to Iran. (Image source: European External Action Service/Flickr)
Leaders of Western Europe like to boast how they respect human rights, yet they are the ones trampling on them. The minute they think their interests might be at stake, they are the first to practice pre-emptive surrender and fraternize with the men shooting into the crowd if they think there is something to gain from it. This is not the first time that they reacted like this; it is exactly what they did when Hitler showed up. Now, since Trump announced that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, they call to create a "Palestinian State" as quickly as possible, meanwhile knowing full well that this "Palestinian State" would be filled with terrorists. Their continuing support for the murderers of Jews is not acceptable.
Nearly eight decades ago, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and French Prime Minister Edouard Daladier went to Munich and came back with an agreement they professed would bring "peace in our time". Winston Churchill famously warned at the time: "You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war. "
Leaders of Western Europe have again chosen dishonor. They are betraying the values they claim to embody -- and again increasing the chances of war.
**Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27 books on France and Europe.
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

The Arab-Israeli Conflict: Why No Peace?
Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/January 17/2018
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11748/arab-israel-conflict-peace
The jihadist aim is to isolate Israel politically; to influence political leaders, public opinion, international institutions and international organizations so that on the day their planned offensive begins, no one will be there to support Israel and the Jews. The Palestinian Authority, the PLO and the Arab/Muslim states will be unhampered to do what Hitler was unable to do in historic Palestine -- make it Judenrein (free of Jews).
Terror is "to achieve Palestinian political goals, to influence Israeli politics, to favor a given Israeli candidate for the post of Prime Minister, to compel the Israeli government to conceal more land, to prevent a final peace settlement by maintaining a state of conflict that could eventually lead to total war, to erode Israeli and American resolve and to demonstrate to Arab population that peace is not an option and that the existence of the Jews on their land cannot be recognized". Some of the attacks occurred just when foreign representatives landed in Israel, "to prevent the revival of the peace talks." Mr. Jason Greenblatt should take that into consideration.
The same jihadist war is also underway against the Americans and all "infidels": Christians, Jews, Yazidis, Hindus, Buddhists, and in a general manner all those who do not believe in the "religion of truth", namely Islam; and against those Muslims who compromise with such so-called infidels.
The critical question of why the Middle East seems unable to achieve peace has just been rigorously considered again, this time by Michael Calvo, an international lawyer, in an important new book, The Middle East and World War III: Why No Peace? It is worth being read by all political leaders, academics, journalists, students and anyone who wants to understand why there is no peace and what may happen.
The book analyzes why the Israeli-Palestinian/Arab/Muslim conflict has not been resolved, in spite of the Oslo Accords and many years of active involvement by the European Union, individual European states, the U.S., Russia and the United Nations.
The long-term Palestinian use of terror, for instance, looked at chronologically:
"to achieve Palestinian political goals, to influence Israeli politics, to favor a given Israeli candidate for the post of Prime Minister, to compel the Israeli government to conceal more land, to prevent a final peace settlement by maintaining a state of conflict that could eventually lead to total war, to erode Israeli and American resolve and to demonstrate to Arab population that peace is not an option and that the existence of the Jews on their land cannot be recognized".
Some of the attacks occurred just when foreign representatives landed in Israel, "to prevent the revival of the peace talks." Mr. Jason Greenblatt should take that into consideration.
There is, according to Calvo, also a psychological and religious preparation for armed conflict with Israel, the manipulation of the media and of minds, the practical preparation of the armed conflict and its planned outbreak, as well as its control by the Palestinian leadership. The terrorists are elevated to heroes and role models. Palestinian policeman, armed individuals, adolescents and adults, sometimes a father or even a mother of young children, are ready to kill Jews by any means and even to blow themselves to pieces for their cause to reach paradise. But they were not born jihadists. They were, and are still, being incited to become jihadists.
The terrorists simply "did what the Palestinian Authority ordered them to do," said Mahmoud Abbas.
Muhammad Dahlan has said that, "Forty percent of the Martyrs in this Intifada belonged to the Palestinian security forces... and the Palestinian Authority has hidden Hamas members against Israeli counter-actions".
In the Hamas takeover of the Gaza Strip and the role played by Hamas's terrorism to increase the pressure on Israel: "Abbas has an ally in Hamas to multiply jihads".
According to a legal analysis under International Criminal Law and the Rome Statute, to "deliberately attack and kill civilians constitute a crime against humanity." It is also a crime of genocide, "since the intention is to deliberately destroy, in whole or in part, a religious group, since only Jews were targeted, including Jews visiting of studying in Israel." If there is an international criminal responsibility, there is also a lack of prosecution.
The internationalization of the conflict is made clear -- especially the role played by Arab and Muslim countries, including Jordan and Egypt which signed a peace treaty with Israel -- to prepare the world to accept the destruction of the Jewish State.
The legal propaganda in war against Israel is analyzed. It covers many fields and how to answer. Are the territories of Judea Samaria (West Bank) occupied, disputed or liberated? To whom do they legally belong?
The jihadist aim, as convincingly described in the book, is to isolate Israel politically; to influence political leaders, public opinion, international institutions and international organizations so that on the day their planned offensive begins, no one will be there to support Israel and the Jews. The Palestinian Authority (PA), the PLO and the Arab/Muslim states will be unhampered to do what Hitler was unable to do in historic Palestine -- make it Judenrein (free of Jews).
The propaganda war, to achieve this aim, warns Calvo, consists largely of: Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS), Israel apartheid weeks, the delegitimization, demonization and dehumanization of Israeli Jews; and the actions before UNESCO, the World Health Organization, the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), the UN General Assembly and Security Council.
The strategy to destroy Israel is implemented through both governments and non-governmental organizations, funded mainly by the European Union and its member states, primarily Norway and Switzerland. It includes a malignant alliance of anti-Semitic individuals, anti-Jewish Christian churches, questionable Catholic societies, radical Leftists and radical Muslims of all countries. This alliance has one aim: to discredit, damage, demonize and eventually destroy Israel.
This conflict has been considered a territorial conflict by all states and dealt with as such, even by Israel: everyone had reasonable hope that a compromise over land would bring peace. The author's wider perspective, however, leads to the provocative conclusion that because of misguided ideology and theology, there is and will, for the medium term, be no peace in the Middle East.
At the moment, Arabs and Muslims are in a jihadist religious conflict, a theological/metaphysical conflict with Israel's Jews, however much the West may refuse to see it. Understanding the problem must begin at its roots.
Leading experts and Pope Francis have said that the world has already entered World War III, but no world leader other than Israel's has dared to share their analysis. Are they afraid?
If one looks at ISIS and the world through Palestinian/Arab/Muslim eyes, Jews in Israel and abroad are not their only enemies to be destroyed, he stresses. The same jihadist war is also underway against the Americans and all "infidels": Christians, Jews, Yazidis, Hindus, Buddhists, and in a general manner all those who do not believe in the "religion of truth", namely Islam; and against those Muslims who compromise with such so-called infidels.
The Palestinian leaders, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Arabia's Wahhabis, Hezbollah, Al-Qaeda, ISIS, the Muslim Brotherhood, most of the Muslim states, the Iranian mullahs and government, all from whichever Islamic persuasion, share the same jihadist ideology, encapsulated in one sentence, the motto of the Muslim Brotherhood:
"Allah is our goal, the prophet is our ideal, the Qur'an is our constitution, jihad is our way, and death for the sake of Allah is our aspiration".
This ideology is used to justify killing Jews and infidels whoever they are and wherever they are found, from New York to Mumbai, Paris, Boston, San Bernardino, Orlando, Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Moscow, Berlin, Manchester and London; and as far away as China, Buenos Aires, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and the Philippines. The dilemma of confronting Iran and its proxies, such as Hezbollah, is compounded by what may yet happen in Lebanon and Russia's role in all this. Whatever happens, America, Europe, Israel, the Muslim states, Russia, India, China, and all other states will still face World War III from within.
Of the familiar collusion between Iran and North Korea regarding their nuclear programs, Calvo concludes: "Their endgame plan to intimidate and paralyze America is simple." The distance from Pyongyang to Los Angeles is the same as between Tehran and New York.
Unless a forthright strategy against radical Islamic terrorism, whether by Sunni or Shia, whether from the "fertile crescent" or from the Iranian Empire, is engaged by all states and primarily by the United States, the author lays bare, World War III will soon get even worse; a war with devastating, perhaps nuclear, consequences.
Colonel Richard Kemp is a retired British Army officer who commanded British Forces in Afghanistan and headed the international terrorism intelligence team in the UK Prime Minister's office.
This article, in a slightly different form, is taken from Colonel Richard Kemp's Foreword to "The Middle East and World War III – Why No Peace?" by Michael Calvo.
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Beyond the Iran Nuclear Deal
John R. Bolton/Gatestone Institute/January 17/2018
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11756/beyond-iran-nuclear-deal
President Trump seemingly served notice Friday that the days are dwindling for Barack Obama's Iran agreement. Although deal proponents also gained time to pursue "fixes," this is a forlorn option. No fix will remedy the diplomatic Waterloo Mr. Obama negotiated. Democrats will reject anything that endangers his prized international contrivance, and the Europeans are more interested in trade with Tehran than a stronger agreement.
There is an even more fundamental obstacle: Iran. Negotiating with Congress and Europe will not modify the actual deal's terms, which Iran (buttressed by Russia and China) has no interest in changing. Increased inspections, for example, is a nonstarter for Tehran. Mr. Obama gave the ayatollahs what they wanted; they will not give it back.
Most important, there is no evidence Iran's intention to obtain deliverable nuclear weapons has wavered. None of the proposed "fixes" change this basic, unanswerable reality.
Spending the next 120 days negotiating with ourselves will leave the West mired in stasis. Mr. Trump correctly sees Mr. Obama's deal as a massive strategic blunder, but his advisers have inexplicably persuaded him not to withdraw. Last fall, deciding whether to reimpose sanctions and decertify the deal under the Corker-Cardin legislation, the administration also opted to keep the door open to "fixes" — a punt on third down. Let's hope Friday's decision is not another punt.
The Iran agreement rests on inadequate knowledge and fundamentally flawed premises. Mr. Obama threw away any prospect of learning basic facts about Iran's capabilities. Provisions for international inspection of suspected military-related nuclear facilities are utterly inadequate, and the U.S. is likely not even aware of all the locations. Little is known, at least publicly, about longstanding Iranian-North Korean cooperation on nuclear and ballistic-missile technology. It is foolish to play down Tehran's threat because of Pyongyang's provocations. They are two sides of the same coin.
Pictured: The perimeter defenses of the underground nuclear fuel enrichment plant in Natanz, Iran. (Image source: Hamed Saber/Wikimedia Commons)
Some proponents of "strengthening" the deal propose to eliminate its sunset provisions. That would achieve nothing. Tehran's nuclear menace, especially given the Pyongyang connection, is here now, not 10 years away. One bizarre idea is amending the Corker-Cardin law to avoid the certification headache every 90 days. Tehran would endorse this proposal, but it is like taking aspirin to relieve the pain of a sucking chest wound.
Putting lipstick on this deal will not fix it. Why would Democrats facilitate Mr. Trump's inclinations to withdraw from the deal entirely? If he's going to abrogate it, why be complicit by adding new conditions that Iran will fail to meet? Sen. Ben. Cardin has correctly observed the president already has all the authority he needs. To avoid that danger, some senators have suggested restricting the president's ability to withdraw from the deal without congressional approval. This folly is so obviously unconstitutional it fully warrants a Trump veto.
Europeans are collectively following a Micawberesque approach of counting their revenues and hoping for the best. They rightly fear that if U.S. intellectual property again falls under sanctions, they will be barred from selling Tehran products containing that technology. U.S. withdrawal is therefore critical to breaking Europe's addiction to Iranian commercial prospects.
U.K. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has reasonably asked what the alternative policy would be. Iran's recent widespread demonstrations against the ayatollahs provide the answer. Tehran's rulers are far more unpopular than previously believed. Like many seemingly impregnable authoritarian regimes, the facade belies the reality. Iran's opposition needs external support, material as well as rhetorical, to continue its momentum. It would be tragic not to torque up the economic pressure by reactivating all sanctions now under waiver, and adding more.
America's declared policy should be ending Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution before its 40th anniversary. Arab states would remain silent, but they would welcome this approach and might even help finance it. Israel can also remain silent but pressure Iran's forces, as well as its clients, in Lebanon and Syria, to maximize the stress on Iran's security assets.
Recognizing a new Iranian regime in 2019 would reverse the shame of once seeing our diplomats held hostage for 444 days. The former hostages can cut the ribbon to open the new U.S. Embassy in Tehran.
John R. Bolton, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, is Chairman of Gatestone Institute, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and author of "Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations and Abroad".
This article first appeared in The Wall Street Journal and is reprinted here with the kind permission of the author.
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

The Terrorism Jobs Program: Pampering the Palestinians Must End
Threatening Terror is Not a Way to Earn a Living
Nonie Darwish/Gatestone Institute/January 17/2018
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11751/terrorism-jobs-program
Palestinians need to start taking responsibility for their own existence and stop relying on the world to take care of them while they use the money freed up -- by the international community -- to launch jihad and intifadas.
No entity should forever be permitted to devote its resources to terror while the world is expected to owe them everything: financial support, jobs, citizenship, and even building the infrastructure that they keep destroying. The moral of the story is that if you do not want to lose wars, it would be better not to start them.
The longer financial aid and the pampering of Palestinians continue as an "insurance policy" ostensibly to prevent terrorism, the longer the suffering, dependence, terror and conflict will go on. It is time for Palestinians to learn that threatening terror is not a way to earn a living.
A British woman, Kay Wilson, apparently realized that when a Palestinian terrorist "plunged a knife into her chest", left her for dead and then murdered her friend, it was British taxpayers who had paid for it.
"Is the UK funding the terrorists who tried to murder me?", she asked.
Yes, it is. "According to data collected by Israel's Defense Ministry, the PA spent a total of 1.237 billion shekels ($358 million), or about 7% of the PA's total annual budget, on terrorist stipends last year."
International payments to Palestinians that are used to pay terrorists in jail, as well as their families, serve both as a "reward for bad behavior" and also as a powerful incentive for youths to become terrorists.
They are a jobs program.
Some Palestinians are complaining that Arab countries are discriminating against them, and even going as far as calling themselves victims of "shameless Arab Apartheid" against Palestinians.
Such an accusation is unfair to many Arab countries, especially Egypt, which has sacrificed the blood of hundreds of thousands of its citizens to support the Islamic jihad against Israel.
Palestinians have a point in demanding support from Arab countries. After all it was Arab nations who shamed Palestinians into taking the Islamist cause of destroying Israel for them; making them the hit-men. The Palestinians, for their part, never resisted falling into the Arab trap of "let's throw the Jews into the sea". They seemed all too happy to oblige. Now, however, that Arab countries are waking up from the illegitimate cause to destroy Israel that has devastated them for so long, it is time for the Palestinians to follow suit.
For decades, Egypt's economic stability and prosperity was put on hold and suffered a stagnant existence for the sake of Palestinians. As a result of many wars with Israel to help Palestinians, Egypt spent a fortune and lost much of its military as well as its territory in the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip. These wars, all initiated by Israel's Arab and Muslim neighbors, also resulted in the migration and suffering of millions of Egyptians who abandoned three cities on the Suez Canal. For years, Suez, Ismailia and Port Said were ghost towns.
After the devastation of the 1967 war, Egypt's economy sank below the level of third-world countries, all for the sake of supporting the "Palestinian" people. Even Egypt's political leader, President Anwar Sadat, who wanted peace in return for Egypt's retrieving the Sinai Peninsula, was accused by Palestinians of treason and assassinated by Islamists, supposedly for having signed a peace deal with Israel.
Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who wanted peace in return for Egypt's retrieving the Sinai Peninsula, was accused by Palestinians of treason and assassinated by Islamists in 1981, supposedly for having signed a peace deal with Israel. Pictured: Anwar Sadat funeral procession in Cairo, Egypt, October 9, 1981. (Photo by Hulton Archive/Getty Images)
In Egypt, Palestinians were given preferential treatment over Egyptian citizens and free education in Egyptian universities. The thank you Egypt got, however, was often Palestinian activism that challenged Egypt's sovereignty.
Today Egypt's boarder with Gaza is chaotic and dangerous; terrorism has been rampant throughout the Sinai Peninsula and is often linked to Gaza. Tunnels are dug not only on the Israeli side but also on Egypt's border with Gaza to smuggle arms and people in and out of Gaza.
Palestinians today still complain that they get no preferential treatment in Arab countries such as Iraq, a war-torn nation that can hardly take care of its own citizens. These are the same Palestinians who just a few years ago, in Kuwait and Iraq, were on the side of Saddam Hussein and cheered for him, a man who single-handedly destroyed Kuwait -- which had been funding the Palestinians -- and had gassed his own people.
Ever since 1948, the Arabs of the West Bank and Gaza who called themselves Palestinian have been given preferential treatment in many Arab countries, as mentioned, such as Jordan and Lebanon. betrayed the Arab nations that hosted them, as in Black September in Jordan; support for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iraq on Kuwait, after which Kuwait's expelled many of its Palestinian citizens; or their insurgency in Lebanon.
Now, years later, this worldwide preferential treatment of Palestinians must end. For the sake of Palestinians, this must end. Palestinians need to remember or relearn how to care for themselves, just like the rest of us. Wherever they are -- in Gaza, Arab countries or the West -- preferential treatment cannot last forever, and even brotherly Arab nations can no longer tolerate such an unnatural existence for Palestinians.
Palestinians need to start taking responsibility for their own existence and stop relying on the world to take care of them while they use the money freed up -- by the international community -- to launch jihad and intifadas. Preferential treatment cannot last forever and even brotherly Arab nations can no longer tolerate such an unnatural existence for Palestinians.
Some Islamic sheikhs often preach that Palestinians have no right to end their jihad against Israel because it is an Islamic cause and not just a Palestinian one.
Today, however, more Arab countries, and the world, have created a monster that must be financially fed constantly "or else"; a helplessly needy population that cannot take care of its own needs because all they were trained to do was jihad and terror, and to use both as blackmail to get whatever they want. This impossible situation is harmful and should not be allowed. No entity should be forever permitted to devote its resources to terror while the world is expected to owe them everything: financial support, jobs, citizenship, and even building the infrastructure that they keep destroying.
Since 1948, Arab League policy has banned Arab and Muslim countries from giving citizenship to Palestinians, ostensibly in order to preserve their "right of return" to Israel. In 1948, many Arabs had fled from the new country of Israel during a war that Arab countries started in to try to kill it at its birth. The Arabs started wars against it again in 1956, 1967 and 1973 -- all of which they lost. When the Arabs who had fled in 1948 wanted to return, Israel declined on the grounds that as they had left of their own accord and not be of help to Israel, they were a potential a "fifth column" who were not welcome to live there again. These and their descendants are the people currently called Palestinians. (Those Arabs who stayed in Israel during that war, are still there, make up roughly 20% of Israel's population and are called Israeli Arabs.)
The moral of the story is that if you do not want to lose wars, it would be better not to start them.
Now, however, preferential treatment for Palestinians in Arab countries seems to be winding down. This shift has caused Palestinians, who got used to preferential treatment, to complain. Some want to be treated as well as the citizens of Arab countries, others do not want citizenship in their current countries to preserve what they are told is a "right of return" to Israel. Because, however, they have initiated uprisings in nearly every country that has hosted them, such as Jordan and Lebanon, they are now also regarded as a potential fifth column in Arab countries, too.
While some Palestinians might be happy with citizenship in the Arab countries they have lived in from birth, they refuse to lobby the Arab League to lift the ban forbidding Arab countries from giving them citizenship in their adopted homes, also apparently in the hope of this wished-for "right of return."
It is time for Palestinians to realize that Arab nations can no longer afford a fifth column that might threaten their sovereignty living among their citizens. The continued state of preferential treatment of Palestinian non-citizens in Arab countries by the international community and supranational organization, such as branches of United Nations, cannot and should not be tolerated any longer.
For years all political and social institutions of Arab countries were devoted to an illegitimate and disgraceful mission to destroy Israel. To achieve this goal, Arab nations put up with a lot of abuse. Finally, however, Arab countries -- and many Palestinians as well -- are finally realizing that the world has had it with the Palestinian cause. No sane nation should be expected to continue sacrificing its peace, life, liberty and pursuit of happiness for the sake of a suicidal cause to replace the State of Israel with yet another Islamic Arab state. It is just not going to happen.
The mission "to throw Jews in the sea" cannot continue; that is why Arab countries need to help themselves by immediately stopping crippling the Palestinians. Some tough love might be welcome, applied by Arab and Western leaders on Palestinian leaders who appear to have gotten used to the pampering. The perpetuation of Gaza and West Bank as separate entities -- which expect constant support to keep existing to achieve the Islamist dream to destroying Israel – must stop.
Palestinians today complain that the world no longer cares, and that is very likely true. The world has other, more urgent problems to worry about -- such as being invaded or by their neighbors or the future to the region of nuclear proliferation. It is high time for the world to demand that Palestinians be absorbed into the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), as are all other refugees, and assimilated wherever they may be, to end this fraudulent "right of return" saga. The longer financial aid and the pampering of Palestinians continue as an "insurance policy" ostensibly to prevent terrorism, the longer the suffering, dependence, terror and conflict will go on. It is time for Palestinians to learn that threatening terror is not a way to earn a living.
**Nonie Darwish, born and raised as a Muslim in Egypt, is the author of the book "Wholly Different; Why I Chose Biblical Values Over Islamic Values".
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Pressure Rising on OPEC to Develop Long-Term Output Plan
Robin Mills/Bloomberg/January 17/18
The battle between OPEC and shale oil producers can be characterized as a two-round fight. In the first round, shale producers gained market share and the price of crude crashed. In the second, OPEC curbed output as shale producers adapted to the lower prices. Now, get ready for round three, as OPEC and Russia try to plot a way out of their production cuts but likely get stymied by market twists and turns that upset their calculations.
The approach of OPEC and its allies for the coming year is clear. Brent crude has just risen above $70 per barrel, apparently confirming the success of OPEC’s plan. Production cuts have been extended until the end of 2018, and excess inventories are being drawn down. But as usual, demand in the first half of the year looks to be relatively weak, meaning any reduction in inventories will have to come in the second half.
The reality, especially if prices exceed the $70 mark, is that the fundamental supply-demand balance does not support OPEC’s optimism. Even if it did, transitioning away from supply cuts is not going to be smooth, with growth in demand likely to weaken throughout 2018. Some Russian companies seem to be itching to part ways with OPEC even though Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he doesn’t see “balance” being achieved until the third or fourth quarters of next year, adding that the deal to curb supplies could be extended again, to beyond the end of 2018.
A sudden abandonment of production limits and an increase of some 1.5 million barrels per day, previously cut, might not cause a sharp price slump this year, but would definitely do so in 2019. Saudi Arabia’s expansionary new budget factors in a Brent crude price of around $60 per barrel, but even that would leave the deficit at a hefty 7.6 percent of gross domestic product, according to estimates by investment bank Jadwa. The budget would only balance at $81 per barrel.
In any case, a smooth withdrawal from production curbs would be tricky. Some adherents -- Saudi Arabia and Russia -- have the ability to boost output significantly from current fields. Riyadh itself plans to reach 11 million barrels per day by 2023, up from less than 10 million now. Others, such as Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, are working on expansions, and Iran will eventually, too, if it isn’t derailed again by political turmoil or sanctions. Others are in slow decline, such as Qatar and Algeria, or a more rapid plummet, in the case of Venezuela. It will take discipline for members to slowly boost output to some intermediate target. More likely, there will be a rush for the exits.
But should the bloc begin working on an exit strategy at all, when victory is still undeclared? Opinions vary widely on what constitutes balance. OPEC sees supply growth of 1 million barrels per day this year, of which 720,000 would be from the US. The International Energy Agency is calling for 1.6 million, with the US contributing 870,000. But if prices remain elevated, the IEA’s forecast looks conservative. Consultancy Rystad Energy estimates as much as 1.9 million barrels per day of growth, with 1.6 million coming from the US. Higher oil prices today are allowing shale producers to hedge and lock in drilling programs. Costs will inevitably rise as activity gears up, and there is much talk of a new capital discipline, but prices above $60 per barrel offer a win-win of profits and growth.
OPEC believes demand will grow by 1.53 million barrels per day, down just slightly down from 2017’s strong 1.7 million, while the IEA has it at 1.3 million. Offsetting the contrasting views on supply and demand leads to a difference between the two agencies of 800,000 barrels per day. Last year’s 15 percent rise in prices, following the 74 percent gain in 2016, would normally be expected to curb demand significantly. A slowing Chinese economy is a further threat. Yet the IEA sees inventories hardly diminishing in 2018, while OPEC believes they would be back at the five-year average by year-end, though this figure is inflated by the recent history of excess stocks.
A more plausible narrative than OPEC’s forecast of a measured return to “balance” is as follows: Weaker demand in the first half of 2018 meets a surge in US shale production as the effects of higher prices and hedging feed through. But this is concealed by Venezuela’s slow-motion collapse as its exports slump, and by periodic upsets in Libya, Nigeria and other wildcards similar to the recent Forties Pipeline breakdown in the North Sea.
By the second half of the year, demand is less robust than hoped, and Russia, the U.A.E. and Iraq -- via a deal on Kirkuk exports with the Kurdish region -- are champing at the bit to release their production. Despite the heralded “bromance” between Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih and Russia’s Novak, Russia feels the OPEC deal has achieved its aims.

Who Will Profit Off the Next Crash?
Satyajit Das/Bloomberg/January 17/18
Current debates about stock valuations resemble the arcane meditations of medieval monks. But the real drivers are more mundane. Traders, weaned on tales of financial derring-do like "The Big Short," want to be the ones who profit from the next crash. The problem is that it may be easier to predict the crash than to profit from it.
To make money from a decline in prices, you can sell short, buy put options, or switch from risky to defensive assets. Success requires an accurate estimation of the timing and amplitude of any shift in valuations. You need to forecast the asset classes and markets that will be affected as well as vectors of contagion. You must anticipate whether the adjustment is in prices or in second-order elements, such as volatility or correlation.
To make large returns, the market move must be amplified by leverage. George Soros's Quantum Fund made $1 billion in 1992 by shorting the British pound, using leveraged trading to augment the rate of return. In 2008, the funds that made stellar returns from subprime losses used derivatives, primarily credit-default swaps. The payoff relative to the premium or cost of the derivatives enhanced the gains in percentage terms. Multiple layers of leverage within the securities themselves further increased returns.
But leverage makes it harder to maintain a position designed to take advantage of anticipated market changes. An inability to meet margin calls or exposure could result in premature closeout. Counterparties may be unable to meet their obligations. Many of the traders who anticipated the 2008 crisis early weren't able to benefit because they were forced to close out positions prematurely due to margin calls. Others benefited only because policy makers bailed out too-big-to-fail counterparties.
Even if the forecast is correct, moreover, the outcome depends on the starting position. If a position is taken against existing risky assets, it can only preserve the value of the portfolio if the hedges work as intended. Leaving aside the pleasure of outperforming competitors, there's no accretion to value, which must also be adjusted for the costs of these hedges.
Selling risky assets and investing defensively comes with challenges too. It entails purchasing "safe" assets, non-market correlated hedge funds promising protection against a downturn, or value-based investments with a large margin of safety.
In 2008, investors gained from holdings of government bonds, but primarily from appreciation due to central bank buying. In a future crisis, government bonds may not be a risk-free haven if the credit quality of sovereigns deteriorates. There is also a risk of loss from interest rate and credit margin changes where the security must be sold before final maturity.
Some funds avoided large losses in 2008 by lowering net exposure via hedges, but few provided large returns. Berkshire Hathaway Inc., a talismanic value investor, lost about 50 percent of its value between December 2007 and early 2009.
The long-term success of moving to safe assets relies on any downturn being temporary. It assumes that prices will ultimately revert to true values. This allows purchases of distressed assets, exploitation of mispriced individual assets, or providing liquidity or capital on advantageous terms during periods of market disruption. Berkshire eventually benefited from the crisis by using its ample liquidity to purchase assets at attractive valuations and provide capital to vulnerable entities (including Goldman Sachs Group Inc.), while selling long-dated equity options when market values were low.
The difficulty of capturing gains from a crash highlights a paradox. No money is ever really made in financial markets. As each gain must be offset by a loss, money is merely transferred between participants or, as Michael Douglas’s character in "Wall Street" suggests, from "one perception to another."
The only true profits come from the cash earnings of operating enterprises rather than increases or decreases in the value of financial claims on these profits. But real businesses are less exciting than financial trading -- and therefore misunderstood in times that value high drama over real returns.

Europe Has Completely Turned the Tables on Brexit
Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/January 17/18
The UK's obvious turnabout on the desirability of a no-deal exit from the European Union shows how completely the tables have turned in the Brexit negotiations. With less than a year to seal a trade deal, the EU is nudging the UK toward an understanding that the only benign outcome is agreeing to a long transition period. That could allow a different UK team to emerge with a humbler approach.
David Davis, the UK Brexit minister, has written Prime Minister Theresa May a letter complaining that the EU is preparing for the eventuality of trade talks ending without a deal. The EU's Brexit guidance for companies -- such as the European Medicines Agency recommendations for pharmaceutical firms -- makes no mention of any transition period before the UK becomes a "third country," an outsider. Instead, they say companies may need to relocate outposts and change procedures in preparation for the UK's withdrawal.
Davis's letter shows that he considered suing the EU over these recommendations but received legal advice not to do it. Instead, he wants to push the European Commission to withdraw the recommendations and encourage UK-based companies to lobby against them. But there's no reason for the EU to pull back. As European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas recently said, the EU is "surprised that the United Kingdom is surprised that we are preparing for a scenario announced by the UK government itself."
Obviously, the UK wants to convince businesses that such a withdrawal was unlikely -- otherwise companies will start moving out soon. But the EU doesn't stand to gain anything by effectively promising firms that something will be worked out. That would be unsafe, especially after Davis said in December that a preliminary agreement between May and EU leaders, which opened the way to trade negotiations, was not legally binding. The trust-destroying statement made it necessary for EU agencies to give companies fair warning. They simply must begin renegotiating their own contracts rather than depend on an uncertain wholesale deal on the government level.
The British aerospace industry is already getting a taste of the no-deal scenario. Davis's complaint in the letter about "a growing number of instances where the UK is treated differently by EU institutions before we leave the EU" is likely to be a reference to the apparent exclusion of UK firms from bidding for contracts for the European satellite navigation system, Galileo. The EU can hardly be expected to welcome UK bidders, though, until some sort of agreement is reached on the UK's further participation in the EU space program.
Yet neither that nor the harsh guidance for companies is a sign that the EU really expects a no-deal exit. It's more like a demonstration of how the EU flipped Britain's no-deal threat into a nightmare.
The size of Britain's negotiating failure is enormous -- the EU hasn't shifted its position at all. After Nigel Farage, one of the top Brexit ideologists, met with chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier this week, he came away with the impression was that Barnier still didn't understand why Brexit was happening. "All the rules and all the laws have to be the same for everybody," Farage insisted. That's an easy position to hold, but the UK's options are still the same as a year ago: a Norway-style deal that includes maintaining the free movement of workers with the EU or a Canada-style free trade deal that doesn't cover financial services, the UK's top export. Neither works politically for the UK.
May has already overruled Davis in order to negotiate the preliminary agreement, essentially accepting every EU demand. With Davis still in the driver's seat in the forthcoming discussion of trade, she may have to do it again. Given how comfortable the EU feels in its position, it's likely that preparations are being made for a favorite European game -- kicking the can down the road, and that May is a silent accomplice in this.
That's a reasonable approach. It allows the UK government to put more historical distance between the Brexit referendum and the event itself. Continuing negotiation failures and a mild form of economic fallout could quietly erode pro-Brexit sentiment and prepare the UK to reverse course or settle for a Norway-style arrangement plus a customs union. There's a reason why dead-end talks and procrastination have carried the EU so far: They tend to cool the hottest of heads.