LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
August 07/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias
Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/newselias18/english.august07.18.htm
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Bible
Quotations
Because
you do not belong to the world, but I have chosen you out of the world
therefore the world hates you
John 15/18-21: "‘If the world hates you, be aware that it hated me before it
hated you. If you belonged to the world, the world would love you as its
own. Because you do not belong to the world, but I have chosen you out of
the world therefore the world hates you. Remember the word that I said to
you, "Servants are not greater than their master." If they persecuted me,
they will persecute you; if they kept my word, they will keep yours also.
But they will do all these things to you on account of my name, because they
do not know him who sent me."
Titles For The Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources published on August 06-07/18
Lebanon's PMI hits lowest point since
2016/Georgi Azar/Annahar/August 06/18
Lebanese Sunni leader’s path strewn with uncertainties/Makram Rabah/The Arab
Weekly/August 06/18
Abbas to dissolve Palestinian Authority, revoke recognition of Israel –
urges Hamas to join harsh new line/DebkaFile/August 06/18
Iran and Its Oil Buyers Prepare for Return of U.S. Sanctions/Wall Street
Journal/August 06/18
Architect of Iranian Missiles Assassinated in Syria/Asharq Al-Awsat and
Nazir Majli/August 06/18
Washington, Pyongyang and Confidence-Building/David Ignatius/The Washington
Post/August 06/18
National Rivalries and Avoiding Collision/Hal Brands/Bloomberg/August 06/18
How Robots and Tariffs Spoiled the DBS Party/Andy Mukherjee/Bloomberg/August
06/18
The US, Italy, and International Trade/Cesare Sacchetti/Gatestone
Institute/August 06/18
UK: Discrimination against Christian Refugees/Judith Bergman/Gatestone
Institute/August 06/18
Analysis: Iran reaches crisis point as U.S. sanctions return/Michael Wilner/Jerusalem
Post/August 06/18
Titles For The
Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
August 06-07/18
Lebanese University Falls Prey to Confessional Agendas
Lebanon: Dispute Over President’s Ministerial Share Hampers Govt Formation
Aoun urges media outlets to avoid disseminating misleading news
Berri meets Italy's Defense Minister, Bukhari
General Security Opens 17 Centers for Syrians Wishing to Return Home
MP Jumblat Visits Russia to Discuss Protection of Syria Druze
Hizbullah Official Says 'Foreign Intervention' Delaying Cabinet Formation
Ferzli Has Suggestion 'Up His Sleeve' to Facilitate Govt. Formation
Report: Hariri-Bassil Expected to Hold Meeting on Govt. this Week
Bassil Meets Arslan after Hayek's 'Druze Martyrs' Remarks
Turkish Power Ship Docks in Zouk after Rejection in Jiye, Zahrani
Abu Nader Calls for Reining in Indulgence and Greed to Form Government
Army Commander, interlocutors tackle general situation
Khalil, Lazzarini tackle developments, international interest in economic
and financial stability
Italian Defense Minister arrives in Beirut on two-day official visit
Lebanon's PMI hits lowest point since 2016
Lebanese Sunni leader’s path strewn with uncertainties
Titles For The Latest LCCC
Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on August 06-07/18
Abbas to dissolve Palestinian Authority, revoke recognition of Israel –
urges Hamas to join harsh new line
Rouhani: Combining Negotiations with Sanctions 'Makes No Sense'
Pompeo says sanctions a pillar of US policy toward Iran
Trump Says Open to New Iran Deal, Confirms Sanctions Return
Iran and Its Oil Buyers Prepare for Return of U.S. Sanctions
Iran FM Says Trump, Bin Salman, Netanyahu are 'Isolated'
Iran Diplomat Granted Entry to Saudi
Architect of Iranian Missiles Assassinated in Syria
Saudi Expels Canadian Envoy, Recalls Its Own over 'Interference'
Syrian Regime Bombs IS Jihadists in Southern Desert
Damascus Creates Body to Repatriate Syria Refugees
Iraq Sentences Two Europeans to Life for IS Membership
Egyptian Army Kills 52 Terrorists in Sinai Operation
Fatah Hands Over Suspects to Lebanese Authorities
Yemeni Govt Accuses EU of Bias Towards Houthis
Saudi Expels Canadian Envoy, Recalls Its Own over 'Interference'
Canada deeply concerned by Saudi Arabia’s expulsion of Canadian ambassador
The Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on August 06-07/18
Lebanese University
Falls Prey to Confessional Agendas
Beirut - Sanaa el-Jack/Monday, 6 August, 2018 /The Lebanese
University has fallen prey to the country’s power-sharing system, which is
threatening the institution's collapse due to sectarian and political
agendas. The LU’s recent plight came to the spotlight when academic and
historian Dr. Issam Khalife was summoned by the judiciary after the
university's president, Fouad Ayoub, accused him of slander and defamation
against the backdrop of claims that he had falsified his diploma. Khalife
told Asharq Al-Awsat that he intended no harm to the university, which he
described as the “backbone of the educational system.”“Yet, today it (LU) is
under the threat of collapse, having severe repercussions on basic and vital
sectors,” he said. “We are asking the university president to show us his
diploma to end any doubts on the matter,” Khalife added. The LU, which was
established 67 years ago, had a very good reputation that was tarnished
after the civil war (1975-1990). Its main campus in the Hadath area of
Beirut’s southern suburbs where the majority of students support "Hezbollah"
has witnessed a form of hegemony compelling many students, who reject the
policies of the party and its ally the Amal movement, to drop out. Dr.
Antoine Sayyah, president of the Association of Friends of the Lebanese
University, warned in remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat that sectarian agendas are
threatening the LU’s balance. University branches in Christian-majority
areas have come under threat after professors from outside these regions
were granted tenure, he said. Ayoub has not fulfilled his promises to
resolve the problem, stressed Sayyah, lamenting the lack of diversity in the
academic corps. Retired professor Charbel Khoury also told the newspaper
that the LU was hugely damaged during the civil war. But the situation
worsened when the political class, which has dominated the country since the
war ended in 1990, began to interfere in the university’s affairs.
“Politicians considered the university a source of services and exaggerated
in their meddling.”“Another problem with the university is that it hasn’t
grown like prestigious universities should do …. Only 35 percent of
university students (in the country) are enrolled in it,” he said. Sayyah
also blamed the state for neglecting the LU. “No matter how dire the
economic situation is, the sectors of health and education should not be
affected,” he said. Khalife revealed a warning was issued by the European
Union that it would not recognize the university’s diplomas if the Lebanese
state does not take any action. He said that Ayoub not only refuses to give
details on his diploma, but also practices dentistry in violation of the
law, which says the LU’s president should fully be devoted to his job at the
institution. “Some faculty deans have also their private businesses,” he
said. "Mafias" are taking control of Lebanese state institutions, including
the LU, Khalife told Asharq Al-Awsat, calling on politicians to resolve the
crisis before the high academic levels, which the university enjoyed in the
past, drop further.
Lebanon: Dispute Over President’s Ministerial Share
Hampers Govt Formation
Beirut- Asharq Al Awsat/Monday, 6 August, 2018/A dispute reemerged between
the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and the Lebanese Forces (LF) over the
share of President Michel Aoun in the next government. OTV, the FPM’s TV
channel talked about the LF’s renewed insistence on “calculations” that do
not preserve Aoun’s ministerial share. The head of the FPM, Gebran Bassil,
justified his adherence to ministerial quotas that his opponents see as
exaggerated, saying: “We will not lose today what we have struggled to
obtain through a balanced government.”Addressing FPM supporters on Sunday,
Bassil said: “You have to understand why we are persistent with this
government matter; because if we do not have a balanced government today, we
cannot promise you the future we want.” “Today, they have to understand that
your rights will not be waived,” he added. In light of the Christian node
that hampers the formation of the government, member of the Future Movement
politburo Mustafa Alloush said that the president is the person who is able
to facilitate the matters by signing proposals submitted by Prime Minister
Saad al-Hariri. In remarks to Future TV, Alloush said that Hariri was
assuming his duties in terms of submitting proposals, warning of attempts to
meddle with the provisions of the Constitution. On the other hand, Amal
Movement politburo member Hassan Qabalan said that there has been “a
deliberate slowdown in the formation of the government”, along with an
internal desire to prevent its formation that has no relation with any
foreign factor. In a related context, "Hezbollah" renewed its call for the
formation of the government on the basis of the results of the recent
parliamentary elections. “It is in the interest of all the Lebanese that
those concerned can overcome all obstacles in the process of establishing
the government, despite the difficulties associated with the formation
process,” Industry Minister in the caretaker government Hussein al-Hajj
Hassan said.
Aoun urges media
outlets to avoid disseminating misleading news
Mon 06 Aug 2018/NNA - President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, called on
media outlets to play a constructive role in avoiding the dissemination of
misleading news that distort the reality of the environmental situation in
Lebanon. "Arbitrary circulation of accusations without fact-finding is not
permissible," President Aoun was speaking on Monday during his meeting at
Baabda Palace with Caretaker Tourism Minister Avedis Guidanian, in the
presence of a delegation from the Maritime Institutions Association, led by
Jean Beiruti. The delegation visited Aoun on the occasion of the election of
the Association's new board members. Aoun underlined the essential role of
media in consecrating freedom of opinion, yet stressing that "the ceiling of
liberties is the truth.".On the other hand, Aoun met with former minister
Mohsen Dalloul, with whom he held a tour d'horizon bearing on hour issues.
Dalloul said on emerging that he took up with the President the current
situation in the Beqa district, in general, and Baalbek-Hermel, in
particular, with both seeing eye to eye on the need to couple security
measures undertaken by the Lebanese armed forces with developmental projects
for the area. The President then met with a delegation of Armenian Catholic
dignitaries in Lebanon, led by Archbishop George Assadourian.
Berri meets Italy's Defense Minister, Bukhari
Mon 06 Aug 2018/NNA - House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday hailed the
"strong and historic ties between Lebanon and Italy," branding these
relations as "growing at all levels." Speaker Berri's words on Monday came
during his meeting with visiting Italian Defense Minister, Elisabetta Trenta,
at the top of a military delegation headed by Italian Defense Chief-of-Staff
General Claudio Graziano. Italian Ambassador to Lebanon, Masimo Maruti, was
also present during the meeting. Minister Trenta arrived in Beirut this
afternoon on a two-day official visit to Lebanon. She is the first Italian
official to visit Lebanon since the new Italian government was formed on
June 1, 2018. Speaker Berri praised Italy's active role within UNIFIL forces
in southern Lebanon, welcoming the appointment of an Italian commander of
these forces. He also heaped praise on the existing cooperation between
Lebanon and Italy in the various spheres. The Italian Minister, for her
part, underlined the distinguished relations between the two countries and
Italy's constant readiness to assist Lebanon and put into action the outcome
the recent Rome and CEDRE conferences. Earlier, Berri welcomed at his
residence Saudi Minister Plenipotentiary Charge d'Affaire, Walid Bukhari,
with whom he discussed current developments and the bilateral relations.
Among Speaker Berri's itinerant visitors for today had been Samir Hamoud,
the head of Banking Control Commission in Lebanon.
General Security Opens 17 Centers for Syrians Wishing
to Return Home
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 06/18/Lebanon's General
Security agency announced Monday that it has opened 17 centers across the
country that would receive applications for Syrians who want to travel back
home. The statement said Syrians in Lebanon could call hotlines and
"regularize" their status with authorities in case of outstanding legal or
security problems. It did not provide details on what was needed for
applications or under what circumstances they might be rejected. Syria's
government for its part is to set up a committee to coordinate repatriating
millions of its nationals who fled the country's seven-year conflict, state
media has said. The Syrian cabinet on Sunday "agreed to create a
coordination body for the return of those displaced abroad to their cities
and villages," state news agency SANA reported. The conflict has displaced
more than five million Syrians outside the country, the United Nations says,
with more than half displaced to Turkey and most of the rest split between
Lebanon and Jordan. The committee "will take the necessary measures to
settle the status of all those who were displaced and secure their return as
security and basic services return to different regions," SANA said on
Sunday. It will take steps towards "ensuring they can lead normal lives and
practice their jobs as before the war" which broke out in 2011, it added.
The coordination body is to "intensify contact with friendly countries to
provide all facilitations and take suitable steps towards their return,"
SANA said. President Bashar al-Assad's regime has ousted rebels and
jihadists from large parts of Syria since 2015 when its ally Russia launched
a military intervention in the country. But much of Syria lies in ruins, the
economy is shattered, and many male refugees voice fear of being drafted
into the regime's armed forces. Last month, Russia presented the United
States with plans for the coordinated return of refugees to Syria. The
proposal includes the establishment of working groups in both Lebanon and
Jordan, involving U.S. and Russian officials. Also in July, Russia's chief
Syria negotiator Alexander Lavrentiev visited Damascus, Amman and Beirut.
According to the Syrian presidency, Assad told Lavrentiev that "Syria is
bent on all its sons returning." In comments to the Russian media, Assad
appealed for Syrian refugees -- especially those who had their own
businesses in the country -- to return. Countries hosting Syrians, including
Turkey and Lebanon, have ramped up demands in recent months for refugees to
return to safe areas in their homeland. Over the same period, hundreds of
Syrians have left Lebanon in organized returns, coordinated between
authorities in Beirut and Damascus. Several thousand have also independently
returned home in recent years.
MP Jumblat Visits Russia to Discuss Protection of Syria Druze
Naharnet/August 06/18/MP Taymour Jumblat, the head of the Democratic
Gathering bloc, has visited Russia to discuss the situations of the Druze
community in Syria's Jabal al-Arab region in the wake of the latest Islamic
State rampage and the consequent abductions and executions.
“My visit to the Russian capital and my meeting with the friend Mikhail
Bogdanov, the deputy foreign minister and special envoy of the Russian
president, was an opportunity to affirm the historic relation and continuous
friendship with the Russian state, with which we have common struggles,”
Jumblat said in a statement. He said the visit was dedicated to “discussing
the situations of the Druze sons of Jabal al-Arab and means to protect them
and spare them threats and woes in which the regime is trying to entangle
them.”“We have made a series of arrangements and we are holding further
discussions to guarantee their safety before anything else,” Jumblat added.
“We have witnessed the grotesque and brutal crime that the IS group has
committed against them with facilitation, and perhaps instructions, from the
regime, which is seeking to blackmail them with these attacks in order to
re-recruit them for its ploys, topped by pushing them into the upcoming war
in Idlib,” the young MP went on to say.
Hizbullah Official Says 'Foreign Intervention' Delaying
Cabinet Formation
Naharnet/August 06/18/A senior Hizbullah official blamed “embassies of
regional countries” for the delay in the formation of Lebanon’s Cabinet, the
National News Agency reported on Monday. "It is obvious that some embassies
of regional countries are hindering the government formation and pressing
political parties to raise the ceiling of their demands,” Sheikh Ali
Daamoush, the deputy head of Hizbullah's Executive Council, said. He urged
Lebanese parties to “disobey foreign interventions, stop the stubbornness”
and lower the ceiling of demands “out of compassion for the Lebanese people
who feel left to their unknown fate.”“Saudi Arabia is delusionals to believe
it can bet on (Lebanon’s) government and on increasing the quotas to
compensate for its losses. Internal balance produced by the parliamentary
elections are stronger and more complex than any external interference," he
said. It is not a first for Daamoush to refer to SA and blame it for the
delay. In July, he said the stalemate could be “part of a Saudi scheme.”
Hariri was tasked with forming a government on May 24, but his mission has
since been delayed due to wrangling between political parties over Cabinet
quotas.
Ferzli Has Suggestion 'Up His Sleeve' to Facilitate Govt. Formation
Naharnet/August 06/18/Deputy Speaker of Parliament Elie Ferzli said on
Monday he has a proposal that will likely facilitate the government
formation process after more than two months since the designation. In an
interview to VDL (93.3), Ferzli revealed that he will “initiate the idea
that the Strong Lebanon bloc shifts to the opposition if the majority
government's proposal is not approved as a way out to help Prime
Minister-designate Saad Hariri overcome the stalemates.” Ferzli said his
attempt comes within the framework of preventing the delay until next fall.
He said the “presence of the opposition is necessary in a democratic
system,” pointing out that “the country should not remain prey to external
targets that want to abort the results of the parliamentary elections and
abort the (presidential) term.” Hariri was tasked with forming a government
on May 24, but his mission has since been delayed due to wrangling between
political parties over Cabinet quotas. Ongoing struggle between the Lebanese
Forces and Free Patriotic Movement (the Strong Lebanon bloc) over Christian
representation is one of the stalemates delaying the formation. The Lebanese
Forces insists on allocating four portfolios including a so-called sovereign
ministry. Druze leader and Progressive Socialist Party chief Walid Jumblat,
insists on getting the whole 3-seat Druze Cabinet share, which is strongly
denounced by Druze MP Talal Arslan who also demands a share in Cabinet.
Report: Hariri-Bassil Expected to Hold Meeting on Govt.
this Week
Naharnet/August 06/18/In light of “aggravating” stalemates obstructing the
formation of Lebanon’s government, a meeting between Prime
Minister-designate Saad Hariri and caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil
(Free Patriotic Movement chief) is expected to take place this week to
address the issue, al-Akhbar daily reported on Monday. “Hariri, expected to
return to Beirut from a trip abroad during the coming days, will expectedly
meet Bassil this week,” said the daily. Relations have “worsened” last month
between the two men over conflict regarding the representation of the
Lebanese Forces and the Druze, it added. Hariri, tasked with forming a
government on May 24, faces a number of obstacles in light of wrangling
between political parties over Cabinet quotas. Ongoing struggle between the
LF and FPM over Christian representation is one of the stalemates delaying
the formation. The Lebanese Forces insists on allocating four portfolios
including a so-called sovereign ministry. Druze leader and Progressive
Socialist Party chief Walid Jumblat, insists on getting the whole 3-seat
Druze Cabinet share, which is strongly denounced by Druze MP Talal Arslan
who also demands a share in Cabinet.
Bassil Meets Arslan after Hayek's 'Druze Martyrs'
Remarks
Naharnet/August 06/18/Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil held
talks Monday at the Foreign Ministry with Lebanese Democratic Party leader
MP Talal Arslan. The meeting comes after Arslan was dismayed by remarks
deemed insulting to the “Druze martyrs” of the civil war which have been
voiced by senior FPM official Naji Hayek. Arslan had called Bassil in recent
days to protest the remarks, according to al-Akhbar newspaper. “Bassil
promised him to address the situation and they agreed on a meeting that
would be held today at the Foreign Ministry,” al-Akhbar said. Hayek had
published a blistering Facebook post addressed to Progressive Socialist
Party leader Walid Jumblat. “In 10 days, you and us will remember the
monkeys that you sent to Souk al-Gharb on August 13, 1989 before Michel Aoun
sent them back to you in sackcloth bags,” Hayek said. His remarks sparked a
storm of heated popular and political responses, with young men from the PSP
blocking the road in Chouf in protest. Arslan and Jumblat have also
condemned Hayek's remarks.
Turkish Power Ship Docks in Zouk after Rejection in
Jiye, Zahrani
Naharnet/August 06/18/Turkish power generating ship Esra Sultan docked
Monday in the Zouk Mosbeh area after its presence in Jiye and Zahrani was
rejected by residents and political forces over environmental and economic
concerns. The ship, which docked off the Zouk power plant, will begin
producing electricity by Thursday morning at the latest according to media
reports. It will provide the Keserwan district and parts of the Jbeil and
Northern Metn districts with around 100-120 megawatts, which would lead to a
22-24 hour power supply, whereas in Jiye it would have only provided around
40 megawatts, the reports said. The ship had left the Jiye area after its
presence was rejected by the Progressive Socialist Party and the area's
residents. It later failed to sail south towards al-Zahrani after protests
organized by the AMAL Movement.
The Energy Ministry later decided to sent it to Zouk. Caretaker Finance
Minister Ali Hassan Khalil, who had taken part in a protest outside the al-Zahrani
power plant alongside MPs from the Development and Liberation bloc, has
stressed that the AMAL Movement rejects the policy of renting power ships.
He has argued that this policy has prevented a sustainable solution for the
country's chronic power generation crisis. Lebanon has been renting two
other Turkish power ships – the Fatmagul Sultan and the Orhan Bey – for
several years now.
Abu Nader Calls for Reining in Indulgence and Greed to
Form Government
Kataeb.org/Monday 06th August 2018/Kataeb leader's top adviser Fouad Abu
Nader on Monday called on President Michel Aoun and PM-Designate Saad Hariri
to rein in the indulgence and greed of parliamentary blocs, demanding that
they form a government that rises up to the challenges facing Lebanon.
"Neither the presidential term can afford more corrosion, nor the country
can endure more vacuum, nor the people can bear more humiliation," he wrote
on Twitter.
Army Commander, interlocutors tackle general situation
Mon 06 Aug 2018/NNA - Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on Monday
welcomed at his Yarzeh office Lebanon's Ambassador to Algeria, Mohammad
al-Hassan, with whom he discussed an array of matters. Maj. Gen. Aoun also
welcomed visiting Italian Defense Chief-of-Staff General Claudio Graziano,
at the top of a military delegation. Talks reported touched on the general
situation and bilateral ties between the armies of both countries.
Discussions also covered the mission of the Italian contingent operating
within UNIFIL in south Lebanon.
Khalil, Lazzarini tackle developments, international interest in economic
and financial stability
Mon 06 Aug 2018/NNA - Caretaker Minister of Finance, Ali Hassan Khalil, met
on Monday with the Deputy Special Coordinator of the United Nations in
Lebanon, Philippe Lazzarini, with talks touching on the latest developments
and the extent of the international interest, as well as the Lebanese, in
the economic and financial stability in Lebanon. The pair stressed the need
to accelerate the formation of the new government so that Lebanon can
benefit from the international climate generated after the Cedre Conference,
so that Lebanon does not lose the opportunities provided by this conference
both in terms of investment and infrastructure services, or in activating
the economy in all its sectors.
Italian Defense Minister arrives in Beirut on two-day
official visit
Mon 06 Aug 2018 /NNA - Italian Defense Minister, Elisabetta Trenta, landed
in Beirut on a private jet on a two-day official visit to Lebanon. She is
the first Italian official to visit Lebanon since the new Italian government
was formed on June 1, 2018. The Italian defense minister is scheduled to
meet President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister-designate
Saad Hariri and discuss bilateral relations. She will also take part in the
hand-over ceremony to be held tomorrow (Tuesday) at the UNIFIL headquarters
in southern Lebanon between General Michael Beary and General Stefano Del
Cole. The Italian minister left the Beirut Airport, heading straight to Ain
al-Tineh to meet with Speaker Berri.
Lebanon's PMI hits lowest point since 2016
Georgi Azar/Annahar/August 06/18
According to Blom Bank's PMI, the real GDP Growth appears to be declining in
the third quarter of the year following the disappointing PMI reading in
July compared to the previous months, as demand continues to be subdued in
Lebanon’s private sector economy.
BEIRUT: Lebanon's Purchasing Managers' Index fell to its lowest since
October 2016, dropping to 45.4 in July 2018, down from 46 the month prior.
According to Blom Bank's PMI, the real GDP Growth appears to be declining in
the third quarter of the year following the disappointing PMI reading in
July compared to the previous months, as demand continues to be subdued in
Lebanon’s private sector economy. Given the PMI results for July 2018,
analysts at Blom assume that the implied GDP growth in Q3 2018 could be
lower than 1 percent.
The slump in the real estate sector also overshadowed the increase in
tourist arrivals, with the Ministry of Tourism maintaining that the total
number of tourist arrivals to Lebanon increased by an annual 3.26 percent to
853,087 tourists by June 2018.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the fiscal deficit widened from
$161.58 million by February 2017 to $865.03 million in by February 2018,
highlighting that the fiscal deficit continues to be a major macroeconomic
vulnerability.
Blom also found that Lebanon’s primary fiscal balance, which excludes debt
service, is in the red with a deficit of $329.56 million in the first two
months of 2018 compared to a surplus of $330.91 million during the same
period last year. The fiscal deficit widened on account of the increase in
the salaries and wages of public sector employees and as a sizeable portion
of telecom revenues was not yet transferred to the Ministry. According to
Blom, maintaining the current status-quo will keep pushing Lebanon’s debt to
unsustainable levels. The Association of Lebanese Banks, Lebanon’s gross
public debt hit $82.5B in May 2018, registered a surge of 7.53% y-o-y
according to the Ministry of Finance (MoF). Furthermore, Local Currency Debt
which forms 56.75% of Total Debt had decreased by 0.49% year-on-year (y-o-y)
to $46.82B. In addition, Foreign Currency Debt which constitutes the
remaining 43.25% of Total Debt rose by 20.23% y-o-y reaching $35.68B. In May
2018, the Ministry of Finance swapped $5.5B worth of Eurobonds with Treasury
Bills from Banque du Liban’s portfolio.
Slower activity was also seen in the decline in the value of cleared checks.
The value of cleared checks hit $32.84B by June 2018 according to the
Association of Lebanese Banks (ABL), down by 2.46% from the same period last
year. In addition, the total number of cleared checks shrunk by 2.86%
year-on-year (y-o-y) to stand at 5.88M by June 2018.
Lebanese Sunni leader’s path strewn with
uncertainties
Makram Rabah/The Arab Weekly/August 06/18
By agreeing to play the game of Russian roulette, Hariri endangers his own
standing vis-a-vis the international community.
Politics, it is said, is all about compromise and the ability to transform
conflict into cooperation. Lebanon, with its long tradition of conflict, has
seen an equal share of reconciliation with the bitterest of opponents coming
together, at least nominally, for the espoused sake of the national
interest. A case in point would be that of Lebanon’s caretaker prime
minister, Saad Hariri, whose political career includes a December 2009 trip
to Damascus, where he shook the hand of Syrian President Bashar Assad, a man
he had long accused of killing his father, Rafik, in February 2005.
Hariri’s momentary normalisation with the Assad regime was part of a wider
Saudi-Syrian rapprochement, in which Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al
Saud hoped to tempt Assad away from the Iranian axis. The failure of this
rapprochement allowed Hariri to return to his anti-Assad stance. That
position is likely to change dramatically should Hariri agree to form the
next cabinet under the auspices of his pro-Iranian and Syrian allies, as
well as proceed with the Russian plan for the repatriation of Lebanon’s
Syrian refugees.
Named last May by the newly elected parliament to form the next cabinet,
Hariri has struggled to put together a lineup that could muster the support
of the various political factions. Many assumed that the main points of
contention centred on shares allotted to the different parties, as each
faction vies for lucrative portfolios that allow them to bankroll their
clientelist networks.
While factional infighting has contributed to the delay, ultimate blame for
the length of time taken to form a cabinet lies with Hariri and his allies’
refusal to relinquish the one-third quorum that allows them to block any
attempt to force the resumption of relations with Syria. By holding ten
members from the projected 30-member cabinet, Hariri and other anti-Syrian
elements can stand firm, refusing to revoke the government’s disassociation
policy that theoretically allows Lebanon to stay away from the regional
conflict.
By openly declaring its disassociation, Lebanon has appeased many of
Hariri’s Gulf state backers, who view Hezbollah’s membership in government
and its meddling in regional affairs as a clear and present danger to
regional stability. Despite his allies’ misgivings, Hariri has held his
ground over normalising relations with the Syrian regime.
However, Hariri’s political career hangs in the balance, resting on his
ability to steer the country away from economic troubles, including the
Syrian refugee crisis and Lebanon’s desperate and crumbling infrastructure.
Nevertheless, the pressure to normalise relations with Syria continues,
domestically and from abroad. Buoyed by their newly found confidence after
the Helsinki summit with the United States, the Russians mooted their
overambitious — some would say fraudulent — plan to return Lebanon’s
refugees to Syria in record time, pledging this return would be voluntary as
well as safe.
While the terms of the Russian offer are complex — and over-reliant on
European financial support — it forces the international community, and
principally Lebanon, to normalise relations with Syria by default.
Hariri met with the Russian diplomatic delegation to discuss its initiative.
It quickly became apparent that the honey-laced words of the Russian envoys
hid the fact that, should he agree, Hariri would have to coordinate
extensively with the Syrian regime, eventually opening the door to
normalisation between Lebanese and Syrian agencies to work together on the
refugees’ return. It’s unlikely to be a course of action Hariri would
undertake without the support of his patrons in Saudi Arabia and their
allies. Even were Hariri to swallow what must be an intensely bitter pill,
there are no guarantees that the 1.5 million Syrian refugees would make it
back home safely. By agreeing to play this game of Russian roulette, Hariri
endangers his own standing vis-a-vis the international community and allows
for the return of Assad and his cronies to Lebanon.
Ultimately, such a gamble might prove more costly than the economic and
social burden the refugees place on Lebanon generally and to Hariri, who had
sworn never to allow Lebanon to slip back into Syrian tutelage, personally.
The Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News
published
on August 06-07/18
Abbas to dissolve
Palestinian Authority, revoke recognition of Israel – urges Hamas to join
harsh new line
DebkaFile/August 06/18
The Israeli security cabinet meeting
Sunday, Aug. 5, resolved not to revise its counter-terror policy for Gaza in
response to the UN-Egyptian truce plan. The statement the cabinet issued:
“The IDF is prepared for any scenario” – means that an effort will be made
for now to avoid triggering a major conflagration by an escalated response
to the Hamas’ kite-cum-balloon offensive. The ministers acted on the advice
of the IDF chief Lt. Gen. Gady Eisenkot, who proposed continuing the
measured policy of restraint, in light of reports coming in from Gaza City
that most Hamas leaders were themselves keen on a ceasefire and the opening
of the border crossings to Israel and Egypt and for that reason would let
their arson campaign peter out. Furthermore, the broad plan, advanced by the
UN emissary and Egypt for a long-term truce in Gaza, with provisions for
alleviating the population’s hardships under Hamas rule, has collapsed after
less than a week. Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen)
not only vetoed the entire project, he went a lot further; he adopted an
extreme rejectionist position against Israel and is urging Hamas to come
aboard. He argues that neither the UN nor Egypt should determine the fate of
the Gaza Strip, but only the Palestinians themselves. Abu Mazen’s first step
has been to encourage Hamas to continue its assaults on Israel and not
accept a ceasefire. It is the first time that the PA leader has openly
allied himself with the rival Hamas’ March of Return and terror by
incendiary kites and balloons. His next step will be to declare the
Palestinian Authority dissolved, followed by the suspension of Palestinian
recognition of Israel and the annulment of the 1993 Oslo interim peace
accords. In view of the hardening of the Palestinian anti-Israel line,
Israel’s policy of restraint and containment of terror may prove to be
untenable.
Rouhani: Combining Negotiations with Sanctions 'Makes No Sense'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 06/18/Iran's President Hassan Rouhani
said Monday that Washington's call for new nuclear negotiations at the same
time the U.S. reimposes crippling sanctions "makes no sense." "They want to
launch psychological warfare against the Iranian nation and create divisions
among the people," he said in a televised interview. "Negotiations with
sanctions doesn't make sense. They are imposing sanctions on Iranian
children, patients and the nation," the president said. Rouhani referred to
fears that essential supplies such as medicines would be affected when
sanctions return on Tuesday.
He said Iran had "always welcomed negotiations" but that Washington would
first have to demonstrate it can be trusted. "If you're an enemy and you
stab the other person with a knife and then you say you want negotiations,
then the first thing you have to do is remove the knife." "How do they show
they are trustworthy? By returning to the JCPOA," he said, using the
technical name for the 2015 nuclear deal. U.S. President Donald Trump
withdrew from the landmark agreement in May, and the U.S. is set to reimpose
sanctions in two phases -- the first on Tuesday and the second on November
5.
Pompeo says sanctions
a pillar of US policy toward Iran
Associated Press/August 06/18WASHINGTON: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has
said renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran will be rigorously enforced and remain
in place until the Iranian government radically changes course. Speaking to
reporters en route from a three-nation trip to Southeast Asia, Pompeo said
Monday’s re-imposition of some sanctions is an important pillar in U.S.
policy toward Iran. He said the Trump administration is open to looking
beyond sanctions but that would “require enormous change” from Tehran.
“We’re hopeful that we can find a way to move forward but it’s going to
require enormous change on the part of the Iranian regime,” he said Sunday.
“They’ve got to behave like a normal country. That’s the ask. It’s pretty
simple.” European foreign ministers said Monday they “deeply regret” the
reimposition of U.S. sanctions. A statement by European Union foreign policy
chief Federica Mogherini and foreign ministers of France, Germany and the
United Kingdom insisted that the 2015 Iran nuclear deal “is working and
delivering on its goal” of limiting Iran’s nuclear program. The ministers
said the Iran deal is “crucial for the security of Europe, the region and
the entire world.”Pompeo called the Iranian leadership “bad actors” and said
President Donald Trump is intent on getting them to “behave like a normal
country.” A first set of U.S. sanctions that had been eased by the Obama
administration under the terms of the landmark 2015 Iran nuclear deal takes
effect on Monday, following Trump’s May decision to withdraw from the
accord. Those sanctions target Iran’s automotive sector as well as gold and
other metals. A second batch of U.S sanctions targeting Iran’s oil sector
and central bank will be re-imposed in early November. Pompeo noted that the
U.S has long designated Iran as the world’s foremost state sponsor of
terrorism and said it cannot expect to be treated as an equal in the
international community until it halts such activities. “Perhaps that will
be the path the Iranians choose to go down,” he said. “But there’s no
evidence today of a change in their behavior.”In the meantime, he said,
“we’re going to enforce the sanctions.”
Trump Says Open to New Iran Deal, Confirms Sanctions Return
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 06/18/U.S. President Donald Trump said
Monday he remains open to forging a new nuclear deal with Iran, as he
confirmed Washington will go ahead with reimposing sanctions against
Tehran."I remain open to reaching a more comprehensive deal that addresses
the full range of the regime's malign activities, including its ballistic
missile program and its support for terrorism," Trump said in a statement. A
first phase of U.S. sanctions against Iran goes into effect overnight.
Iran and Its Oil Buyers Prepare for Return of U.S. Sanctions
Wall Street Journal/August 06/18
The Trump administration says it expects
Iran’s oil buyers to begin winding down their purchases Tuesday in response
to sanctions being reimposed by the U.S. Some are seeking alternatives, but
countries including China, India and France, are considering creative
measures to keep importing Iranian crude. Starting this week U.S. sanctions
against Tehran on sectors like automotive and aircraft are set to return
following President Trump’s decision in May to pull out of the nuclear
agreement with Iran. Oil companies will have until November 4to adjust to
the returning U.S. ban on buying Iranian oil. “The three-month wind-down
period is starting,” Dario Scaffardi, chief executive of Italian refiner
Saras SpA—a buyer of Iranian oil—told analysts last week. “So, we expect to
see the effects sort of now.”The threat of dwindling oil sales is forcing
Tehran and its oil buyers to react. The U.S. sanctions come as Iran faces a
collapsing currency and protests over living conditions. Petroleum is a main
export, accounting for nearly a fifth of Iran’s gross domestic product.
But overall oil exports declined in July by 300,000 barrels a day to 2.3
million barrels, according to Paris-based shipping-data tracker Kpler, as
European refiners cut purchases ahead of returning sanctions. The country’s
losses could ultimately amount to 1 million barrels a day, said Richard
Nephew, who helped enforce U.S. sanctions five years ago as deputy
coordinator for sanctions policy at the State Department. In recent months,
U.S. officials have said they expect Iran’s oil exports to either disappear
completely or to decline significantly. The Treasury Department has carried
roadshows with State Department and other government counterparts over the
last 90 days explaining what sanctions will snap back when all the wind-down
periods end in November, a U.S. official said. Italy’s Saras already has
decided to reduce Iranian oil purchases before November because of the
difficulty of finding payment channels, according to executives. The company
declined to comment further. Nations that regularly do business with Iran
are in a difficult position. “We have informed our oil customers that we
will only buy their commodities if they buy our crude,” Asadollah Gharekhani,
spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s energy commission told Iranian
state-media last month. It is unclear how mandatory such practice will be.
An Iran oil-ministry spokeswoman didn’t return a request for comment.
The European Union, China and India have said they won’t enforce
sanctions—unlike their response to restrictions against Iran oil in 2012.
But they may still bow to the pressure as their oil companies would risk
being blocked from the U.S. financial and oil markets. Banks and shippers
already are stopping trade with Iran because their businesses are exposed to
the U.S. Oil companies in those nations are considering follow suit because
they have assets in the U.S. or are exposed to the U.S. financial system.
Last month, Iran’s vice president Eshaq Jahangiri said the country would
privatize the sale of its crude, a workaround that could be effective by
putting the onus on private businessmen to sell the commodity. Iran employed
the method to market its oil products and petrochemicals during previous
sanctions with the help of small Chinese and Russia banks and
intermediaries, according to Iranian traders and transaction documents
reviewed by The Wall Street Journal in 2015.
Tehran also has begun to increase reliance on the privately-owned National
Iranian Tanker Co., to replace foreign tankers in deliveries to India,
according to data from shipping website Fleetmon.com, which gives access to
data on tanker movements.
Most importantly, Iran plans to use a barter system—which avoids
sanctionable transfers to the nation—through which oil payments are
deposited into accounts in oil-importing countries and used by Tehran to buy
goods. Some European Union’s nations may consider the process, according to
a European official involved in the contingency planning. Countries like
China, India and, more recently, Russia have used it successfully to buy
Iran’s crude. In a joint statement Monday, the EU, France, the U.K. and
Germany said they are committed to work on the continuation of Iran’s export
of oil and gas. Tehran also has started shipping to small buyers in Latin
America, including a delivery to Chile over this past weekend, according to
a European sanctions official and tracking data. French, German and British
governments are considering the use of their national banks to activate
accounts for the Iranian central bank, which could receive oil payments,
according to European officials. However, “the United States could still
sanction the oil companies if they pay the central banks for the oil,” said
Mr. Nephew, who is now an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s Center
on Global Energy Policy. Among other options, the French government is
considering taking charge of the shipping and storage required to import
Iran oil to replace private companies, the European official said. France
could also buy Iranian oil from countries like China, India or
Russia—possibility refined for the latter—if they have obtained exemptions,
the official said. The French finance ministry didn’t return a request for
comment.
Meanwhile, Total SA, the main importer of Iranian oil to France, has cut its
purchases from Tehran and largely filled the gap with Russia’s Urals crude
grade, according to European traders. Total didn’t reply to a request for
comment. Shipping data from Kpler shows France hasn’t imported Iranian oil
since June 18, a loss largely offset by a 63% rise in Russian oil imports to
France over the same period. The impact of upcoming sanctions has been more
mixed in Asia, where many refiners are state-owned and banks are often
exposed to the U.S. financial system. South Korea didn’t purchase oil from
Iran last month for the first time in three years, according to Kpler.
Meanwhile, Indian imports rose by 118,000 barrels a day. Still, an Indian
refinery owned byReliance Industries Ltd. began buying crude from faraway
countries such as Colombia and the U.S., a rarity. “They seem to be testing
alternatives as they prepare to reduce Iranian oil imports,” said Kpler’s
economic analyst Reid I’Anson. Reliance didn’t return a request for
comment.China, generally the largest buyer of Iranian oil, is gearing up to
take more, said a senior U.S. official said. The Asian powerhouse is engaged
in a dispute over trade tariffs with the U.S. and uses a state-run bank with
no American connection, giving it leverage in fighting the sanctions.
Iran FM Says Trump, Bin Salman, Netanyahu are 'Isolated'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 06/18/Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif said Monday that the leaders of the United States, Saudi Arabia
and Israel were isolated in their hostility to Iran. "Today, the entire
world has declared they are not in line with US policies against Iran,"
Zarif said in a speech, according to the semi-official ISNA news agency.
"Talk to anyone, anywhere in the world and they will tell you that (Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu, (US President Donald) Trump and (Saudi
Crown Prince Mohammed) bin Salman are isolated, not Iran," he said. Zarif
suggested it was hard to imagine negotiating with Trump after he had torn up
the 2015 nuclear deal, on which Iran and world powers had spent the "longest
hours in negotiating history". "Do you think this person (Trump) is a good
and suitable person to negotiate with? Or is he just showing off?" Zarif
said. Iran's leaders have been highly sceptical of Trump's offer to talk
"any time" without preconditions. With US sanctions set to return against
Iran on Tuesday, Zarif acknowledged there were difficult times ahead. "Of
course, American bullying and political pressures may cause some disruption,
but the fact is that in the current world, America is isolated."Saudi Arabia
and Israel, Iran's key regional rivals, are among the only countries to
strongly support the reimposition of US sanctions. The other parties to the
2015 nuclear agreement -- Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia -- say
Iran was abiding by its commitments and have vowed to salvage the deal by
ensuring economic benefits continue to flow to the country.
Iran Diplomat Granted Entry to Saudi
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 06/18/Saudi Arabia has granted a visa
to an Iranian diplomat to work in a consular office in Jeddah, state media
reported Sunday, in a rare sign of a thaw between the rival powers.Foreign
ministry official Mohammad Alibak has been permitted to serve as head of
Iran's Interests Section in the consulate, state news agency IRNA reported.
There was no immediate confirmation from Riyadh. Sunni powerhouse Saudi
Arabia and Iran, the predominant Shiite power, have for decades stood on
opposing sides of conflicts in the Middle East including the Syrian civil
war. The two countries severed diplomatic relations in early 2016 after
Riyadh's embassy in Tehran was attacked by militants in response to the
execution of a top Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia.
Architect of Iranian Missiles Assassinated in Syria
اغتيال {كاتم أسرار} صواريخ إيران في سوريا ومخترع البراميل المتفجرة
Tartous (Syria) - Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat and Nazir Majli/Monday, 6
August, 2018
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/66569/%D8%A7%D8%BA%D8%AA%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%84-%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%85-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AE-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A/
There have been conflicting reports on the murder of the head of the Syrian
Scientific Studies and Research Center in Masyaf, Aziz Asbar, who is known
for being close to Iran.
Syria’s opposition considers Asbar responsible for the development of barrel
bombs, which regime forces have dropped on civilians in the past years.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed that Asbar had been killed
and said it was not yet clear which side "carried out the assassination of
one of the figures close to the leaders of Iran, the Lebanese ‘Hezbollah’,
and the Syrian regime.”
The Observatory said the Syrian scientist was killed along with his driver
in a booby-trapped vehicle blast in Masyaf area in the western countryside
of Hama on Saturday night.
While Iranian media outlets accused Israel of orchestrating the attack,
Syrian official news agencies did not publish any information about Asbar’s
killing.
Syrian pro-government newspaper Al-Watan published a brief report confirming
that Asbar "died with is driver after an explosion targeted their car in the
Hama countryside."
Israeli news agencies said Asbar was involved in Syria's chemical weapons
development as well as in the Iranian Fateh missiles program, and that he
worked on the development of medium- and long-range missiles.
Asbar was responsible for the Inter Coordination Committee on the transport
of weapons between Syria, Iran and ‘Hezbollah’. He also supervised the
production of non-traditional weapons at the Syrian Scientific Studies and
Research Center in Masyaf, including nerve gas.
The official radio in Tel Aviv said the name of Asbar had emerged during the
past years on the US sanctions lists for his responsibility in “developing
and producing Iranian long-range missiles.” Meanwhile, ISIS executed a teen
kidnapped during the attacks on Suweida and its eastern and northeastern
countryside last month. The Observatory said the terrorist group executed a
19-year-old boy from al-Shabaki village, who was among more than 30
children, teenagers, and women abducted by ISIS during its attacks on the
area. The execution led to fears on the possibility that the terrorist group
would kill other hostages in the coming days.
Saudi Expels Canadian Envoy, Recalls Its Own over
'Interference'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 06/18/Saudi Arabia said Monday it was
expelling the Canadian ambassador and had recalled its envoy while freezing
all new trade, in protest at Ottawa's vigorous calls for the release of
jailed activists. The kingdom gave the Canadian ambassador 24 hours to leave
the country, in an abrupt rupture of relations over what it slammed as
"interference" in its internal affairs. The move, which underscores a newly
aggressive foreign policy led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, comes
after Canada demanded the immediate release of human rights campaigners
swept up in a new crackdown. "The Canadian position is an overt and blatant
interference in the internal affairs of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia," the
Saudi foreign ministry tweeted. "The kingdom announces that it is recalling
its ambassador to Canada for consultation. We consider the Canadian
ambassador to the kingdom persona non grata and order him to leave within
the next 24 hours."The ministry also announced "the freezing of all new
trade and investment transactions with Canada while retaining its right to
take further action". Canada last week said it was "gravely concerned" over
a new wave of arrests of women and human rights campaigners in the kingdom,
including award-winning gender rights activist Samar Badawi. "We urge the
Saudi authorities to immediately release them and all other peaceful #humanrights
activists," the foreign ministry tweeted on Friday. - 'Unprecedented
crackdown' -Samar was arrested along with fellow campaigner Nassima al-Sadah
last week, the latest victims of what Human Rights Watch called an
"unprecedented government crackdown on the women's rights movement". Samar
is a vocal campaigner for blogger Raif Badawi, her brother who was arrested
in 2012 and sentenced to 1,000 lashes and 10 years in jail for "insulting
Islam" in a case that sparked an international outcry. The latest arrests
come weeks after more than a dozen women's right campaigners were detained
and accused of undermining national security and collaborating with enemies
of the state. Some have since been released.
The Saudi foreign ministry slammed the Canadian statement, signalling its
growing irritation over Western criticism of the kingdom's poor human rights
record. "Using the phrase 'immediately release' in the Canadian statement is
very unfortunate, reprehensible, and unacceptable in relations between
states," the ministry tweeted. Prince Mohammed, heir to the region's most
powerful throne, has introduced a string of reforms such as lifting a
decades-long ban on women drivers in a bid to overhaul the kingdom's austere
image as it prepares for a post-oil era. But the 32-year-old has
simultaneously pursued a hawkish foreign policy -- including leading a
blockade of neighbouring Qatar and a bombing campaign against Iran-backed
Huthi rebels in Yemen -- while cracking down on dissent at home. 'Serious
concern' -"The rupture in Saudi diplomatic relations with Canada reinforces
how the 'new' Saudi Arabia that Mohammed bin Salman is putting together is
in no mood to tolerate any form of criticism of its handling of domestic
affairs," said Kristian Ulrichsen, a fellow at Rice University's Baker
Institute in the United States. In April, Canadian Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau expressed his "serious concern" over the continued jailing of Badawi
to Saudi King Salman.Badawi's wife Ensaf Haidar has been granted asylum by
Canada, where she is raising their three children now aged 14, 13 and 10 as
a single mother. Riyadh's expulsion of the Canadian ambassador was meant to
send a strong message to other critical Western governments, observers say.
"Canada is easier to cut ties with than the rest," Bessma Momani, a
professor at Canada's University of Waterloo, told AFP. "There isn't a
strong bilateral trade relationship and poking the Trudeau government likely
resonates with Saudi's hawkish regional allies. At jeopardy, are the tens of
thousands of Saudi students in Canada."
Syrian Regime Bombs IS Jihadists in Southern Desert
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 06/18/Syrian regime forces bombed late
Sunday a desert area under the control of the Islamic State (IS) jihadist
group near the province of Sweida in southern Syria, a war monitor said.
"The bombing and fighting between the regime forces and IS have intensified
during the evening and are continuing," said Rami Abdel Rahmane, head of the
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. "The regime is advancing to the north
and northeast of Sweida", adjacent to the desert zone of the southern
province, he told AFP. This military operation would be "the start of a
regime offensive to dislodge IS from this pocket" in the Badiya desert of
Sweida, he said, adding that "a major military reinforcement (of regime
troops) is massing" in the area. The fighting comes as Russia failed in its
negotiations to free some 30 civilian hostages of the Druze religious
minority taken by IS last month. The kidnappings followed a series of
coordinated attacks against Sweida province which left more than 250 people
dead. On Sunday, the Observatory and news website Sweida24 announced that IS
had decapitated one of the hostages, a 19-year-old male student. This
execution, the first since the abductions, came "after the failure of the
negotiations with the regime forces", according to the Observatory. The
Syrian Democratic Forces, an Arab-Kurd alliance which fought against IS with
the support of the United States, indicated Sunday that it was ready to
exchange with IS captured jihadists for the remaining Druze civilian
hostages. Meanwhile IS, which has not claimed responsibility for the
execution or the kidnappings, has been pounded by multiple offensives in
Syria and today controls less than three percent of the territory. However,
it continues to launch attacks like the bloody strike and kidnappings in
Sweida. The Syrian conflict which began in 2011 has claimed more than
350,000 lives and left millions displaced or fleeing as refugees.
Damascus Creates Body to Repatriate Syria Refugees
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 06/18/Syria's government is to set up a
coordination committee to repatriate millions of its nationals who fled the
country's seven-year conflict, state media has said. The cabinet on Sunday
"agreed to create a coordination body for the return of those displaced
abroad to their cities and villages," state news agency SANA reported. The
conflict has displaced more than five million Syrians outside the country,
the United Nations says, with more than half displaced to Turkey and most of
the rest split between Lebanon and Jordan. The committee "will take the
necessary measures to settle the status of all those who were displaced and
secure their return as security and basic services return to different
regions," SANA said on Sunday. It would take steps towards "ensuring they
can lead normal lives and practice their jobs as before the war" started in
2011, it added. The coordination body is to "intensify contact with friendly
countries to provide all facilitations and take suitable steps towards their
return," SANA said. President Bashar al-Assad's regime has pushed back
rebels and jihadists in large parts of Syria since its ally Russia
intervened militarily on its side in 2015. Last month, Russia presented the
United States with plans for the coordinated return of refugees to Syria.
The proposal includes the establishment of working groups in both Lebanon
and Jordan, involving U.S. and Russian officials. Also in July, Russia's
chief Syria negotiator Alexander Lavrentyev visited Damascus, Amman and
Beirut. According to the Syrian presidency, Assad told Lavrentyev that
"Syria is bent on all its children returning." In comments to the Russian
media, Assad appealed for Syrian refugees -- especially those who had their
own businesses in the country -- to return. Countries hosting Syrians,
including Turkey and Lebanon, have stressed the need for the return of
refugees to Syria, while human rights groups have warned that this should be
done on a voluntary basis.
Iraq Sentences Two Europeans to Life for IS Membership
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 06/18/An Iraqi court on Monday
sentenced a French man and a German woman to life in prison in the latest
punishments handed down for belonging to the Islamic State jihadist group.
Frenchman Lahcen Gueboudj, 58, and a German woman whose name was given only
as Nadia were sentenced separately at the Baghdad central criminal court,
according to an AFP journalist. Nadia's mother, a German woman of Moroccan
origin, was sentenced to death in January for IS membership but the sentence
was later commuted to life, which in Iraq is equivalent to 20 years. The
mother and daughter were arrested in July 2017 in Mosul, the jihadists'
former de-facto capital in Iraq where the government declared victory over
IS in December last year. Wearing a black abaya in court, Nadia said she
traveled from Syria to Iraq "to run away from the people of IS." Speaking in
German with a few Arabic words, she said she traveled to Syria from Turkey
with her mother, her daughter Yamana and her mentally disabled sister who
was killed in a bombardment. Nadia's lawyer stressed that she was a minor at
the time and that her marriage to an IS jihadist in Syria was "not a
decision taken by an adult in full conscience." The French defendant,
meanwhile, refuted statements made during his interrogations. "I signed
confessions in Arabic without knowing what was written," said Gueboudj, with
short grey hair and stubble, wearing a brown prison uniform. "I would never
have left France, if my eldest son Nabil, 25-years-old, hadn't gone to
Syria," he said in French. "I wanted to convince him to return with us to
France," added Gueboudj. The French citizen had traveled with his wife and
children to Turkey before entering Syria, and later being arrested in Iraq.
Egyptian Army Kills 52 Terrorists in Sinai Operation
Cairo- Asharq Al Awsat/Monday, 6 August, 2018/Egyptian forces have killed
over the past few days 52 "extremely dangerous takfiri individuals" in North
Sinai province, northeast Cairo, as part of the ongoing "Sinai 2018"
anti-terror campaign, the Egyptian Army announced on Sunday. The army
launched operation “Sinai 2018” in February to rid the peninsula of ISIS
militants, who have been waging a bloody insurgency against civilians and
security forces in the country. In Sinai, the statement said, 13 takfiris
were killed in an operation by security forces in the city of al-Arish, the
capital of North Sinai province. The remaining 39 militants were killed in
various military operations across northern and central Sinai, according to
the statement. During these operations in North Sinai and the center of the
peninsula, 49 militants were also arrested in joint raids conducted by the
armed forces and the police, the statement noted. It added that the raids
also destroyed 26 hideouts and storehouses belonging to the terrorists and
defused 64 explosive devices planted to target the forces. The statement
pointed out that the operation has achieved great successes in the framework
of the ongoing efforts to eliminate terrorism and drain its sources of
funding. Meanwhile, troops and security forces also destroyed 15 vehicles
laden with weapons and ammunition while trying to infiltrate the western
borders with eastern Libya, and 17 others in the southern military region.
Since the ousting of former President Mohamed Morsi in July 2013, violent
confrontations have been taking place between security forces and extremist
armed groups in northern and central Sinai, which have killed hundreds of
people from both sides. Since its launch in February, the "Sinai 2018"
anti-terror operation has killed about 400 militants while more than 30
soldiers died during the confrontations.
Fatah Hands Over Suspects to Lebanese Authorities
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 6 August, 2018/The Lebanese Army received
from the Palestinian National Security Forces a wanted Palestinian as part
of a plan for Fatah movement to hand over wanted persons involved in drug
trafficking and other crimes. National Security Forces and the Palestinian
National Liberation Movement (Fatah) handed over the wanted man, Ahmed Hasan
al-Hawari, to Lebanese authorities, according to the state-run National News
Agency (NNA). Hawari surrendered to the Palestinian liaison officer, who in
turn, handed him over to the Lebanese army intelligence. The military
leadership earlier announced that several suspects also turned themselves to
the authorities within the framework of efforts of Directorate of
Intelligence. The suspects were identified as Abdullah Ahmed Karim, who had
been hiding out in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp near the southern city of
Sidon, and Tarek Ibrahim al-Saadi and Hasan Mahmoud Fendi, who had taken
refuge in the Rashidieh camp near Tyre. They were wanted on charges that
included drug trafficking, throwing grenades, firing weapons and
destabilizing the security situation inside the camps. Investigations are
ongoing, the army said. Fatah movement issued a statement on Sunday saying
that based on the recommendations of President Mahmoud Abbas on the need to
preserve the security of Palestinian camps and maintain Lebanese security,
it handed suspects wanted in cases related to drug trafficking and tossing
grenades. The movement confirmed it will continue to protect “our people and
pursue all those involved in tampering with the security of our society, in
full coordination with the Lebanese security.” It also explained that after
consultations with all factions and clerics, it began handing over all
wanted individuals to the Lebanese judiciary. Fatah indicated that the
campaign will continue until “such anomalies in our camps are eliminated.”
Yemeni Govt Accuses EU of Bias Towards Houthis
Aden- Asharq Al Awsat/Monday, 6 August, 2018/The Yemeni government expressed
shock towards international accusations made against the Saudi-led Arab
Coalition on purported involvement in two terror attacks targeting Hodeida's
Al-Thawra Hospital and the fish market. The August 2 attack killed and
wounded dozens of civilians. Accusations were made despite the coalition
proving it did not carry out any operations in the port city. Technical
evidence was submitted to the UN Security Council and made public. It showed
that strikes on the two targets resulted from mortars fired from Houthi-held
posts. “The Yemeni Government considers such accusations, most recently
issued by the European Union's statement, to confirm that many people pay
little attention to objective facts and are driven by their own
predispositions to acquit Houthi militias which have carried out attacks
against maritime navigation lanes south-east the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandeb
Strait,” the Yemeni Foreign Ministry said in a statement published by the
Yemeni News Agency (Saba).“Keeping silent towards these crimes and breaches
of the International Law is sending wrong messages to putschist militia, a
matter the Yemeni Government has repeatedly warned against and will allow
for prolonging the war,” it added. The statement noted that the Government
reaffirmed that the only approach to ending the war waged by Iran-backed
Houthi coupists is abiding by UNSC resolutions, namely 2216 of 2015, the
Gulf Initiative and its operational mechanism and the Yemeni National
Dialogue outcomes. The International Community should shoulder its duties in
upholding international peace and security, and denounce Iran's
destabilizing regional aggression. “The Yemeni Government has frequently
stated that it is fully committed to protect the civilians and save them
from any harm nationwide, and is very keen to comply with the law of war,
Geneva 4 agreements and all of which is in relevance,” the statement added.
More so, the internationally-recognized government held Houthi militias
fully accountable for the appalling violations of International and
Humanitarian Laws.
Saudi Expels Canadian
Envoy, Recalls Its Own over 'Interference'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 06/18/Saudi Arabia said Monday it was
expelling the Canadian ambassador and had recalled its envoy while freezing
all new trade, in protest at Ottawa's vigorous calls for the release of
jailed activists. The kingdom gave the Canadian ambassador 24 hours to leave
the country, in an abrupt rupture of relations over what it slammed as
"interference" in its internal affairs. The move, which underscores a newly
aggressive foreign policy led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, comes
after Canada demanded the immediate release of human rights campaigners
swept up in a new crackdown. "The Canadian position is an overt and blatant
interference in the internal affairs of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia," the
Saudi foreign ministry tweeted. "The kingdom announces that it is recalling
its ambassador to Canada for consultation. We consider the Canadian
ambassador to the kingdom persona non grata and order him to leave within
the next 24 hours."The ministry also announced "the freezing of all new
trade and investment transactions with Canada while retaining its right to
take further action". Canada last week said it was "gravely concerned" over
a new wave of arrests of women and human rights campaigners in the kingdom,
including award-winning gender rights activist Samar Badawi. "We urge the
Saudi authorities to immediately release them and all other peaceful #humanrights
activists," the foreign ministry tweeted on Friday. - 'Unprecedented
crackdown' -Samar was arrested along with fellow campaigner Nassima al-Sadah
last week, the latest victims of what Human Rights Watch called an
"unprecedented government crackdown on the women's rights movement". Samar
is a vocal campaigner for blogger Raif Badawi, her brother who was arrested
in 2012 and sentenced to 1,000 lashes and 10 years in jail for "insulting
Islam" in a case that sparked an international outcry. The latest arrests
come weeks after more than a dozen women's right campaigners were detained
and accused of undermining national security and collaborating with enemies
of the state. Some have since been released.
The Saudi foreign ministry slammed the Canadian statement, signalling its
growing irritation over Western criticism of the kingdom's poor human rights
record. "Using the phrase 'immediately release' in the Canadian statement is
very unfortunate, reprehensible, and unacceptable in relations between
states," the ministry tweeted. Prince Mohammed, heir to the region's most
powerful throne, has introduced a string of reforms such as lifting a
decades-long ban on women drivers in a bid to overhaul the kingdom's austere
image as it prepares for a post-oil era. But the 32-year-old has
simultaneously pursued a hawkish foreign policy -- including leading a
blockade of neighbouring Qatar and a bombing campaign against Iran-backed
Huthi rebels in Yemen -- while cracking down on dissent at home. 'Serious
concern' -"The rupture in Saudi diplomatic relations with Canada reinforces
how the 'new' Saudi Arabia that Mohammed bin Salman is putting together is
in no mood to tolerate any form of criticism of its handling of domestic
affairs," said Kristian Ulrichsen, a fellow at Rice University's Baker
Institute in the United States. In April, Canadian Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau expressed his "serious concern" over the continued jailing of Badawi
to Saudi King Salman.Badawi's wife Ensaf Haidar has been granted asylum by
Canada, where she is raising their three children now aged 14, 13 and 10 as
a single mother. Riyadh's expulsion of the Canadian ambassador was meant to
send a strong message to other critical Western governments, observers say.
"Canada is easier to cut ties with than the rest," Bessma Momani, a
professor at Canada's University of Waterloo, told AFP. "There isn't a
strong bilateral trade relationship and poking the Trudeau government likely
resonates with Saudi's hawkish regional allies. At jeopardy, are the tens of
thousands of Saudi students in Canada."
Canada deeply concerned by Saudi Arabia’s expulsion of Canadian ambassador
August 6, 2018 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued
the following statement in response to the decision by Saudi Arabia to expel
Canada’s ambassador:
“We are deeply concerned that Saudi Arabia has expelled Canada’s ambassador
in response to Canadian statements in defence of human rights activists
detained in the kingdom.
“Canada will always stand up for the protection of human rights, including
women’s rights and freedom of expression around the world. We will never
hesitate to promote these values and we believe that this dialogue is
critical to international diplomacy.
“The Embassy of Canada to Saudi Arabia, in Riyadh, continues its regular
operations, including consular services.
“Canada will continue to advocate for human rights and for the brave women
and men who push for these fundamental rights around the world.”
The Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on August 06-07/18
Washington, Pyongyang and Confidence-Building
David Ignatius/The Washington Post/August 06/18
Koreans have a saying that helps explain the recent upbeat exchanges among
Washington, Seoul and Pyongyang: “Say pretty things to hear pretty things.”
Beyond the Trump White House, there remains much skepticism that North Korea
will ever give up its nuclear weapons. Recent leaks about North Korea’s
continuing efforts to build its nuclear and missile arsenal underline the
concern that President Trump gave up more than he got in Singapore. But the
public rhetoric from Washington and Pyongyang is warming, after a chill, and
it’s backed by some real moves to ease tensions. The latest sweet talk was
Trump’s tweet Wednesday effusively thanking North Korean leader Kim Jong Un
“for keeping your word” and returning remains of US soldiers who died in the
Korean War. Trump called it a “kind action” and enthused: “I look forward to
seeing you soon!” Last week’s most important conversation on Korea may have
been the meeting between a North Korean and a South Korean general at the
border village of Panmunjom. This was the latest installment in a slow,
steady process of engagement between the Koreas that pre-dates the Trump-Kim
summit. The two generals discussed reducing weapons in the demilitarized
zone (DMZ) and halting firing exercises and withdrawing artillery along the
West Sea coast, according to South Korean reports. South Korean officials
would like to turn the heavily mined DMZ into a weapons-free nature preserve
as a symbol of progress.
Trump gets the headlines when it comes to North Korea. But the real driver
may be inter-Korean contacts. Kim signaled in a speech Jan. 1 that he wanted
to leverage his nuclear-weapons capability for economic development, and
South Korean President Moon Jae-in responded boldly with his Olympic
diplomacy. Trump embraced this opening, but he didn’t create it. The
Washington diplomatic mood has been spiking like a fever chart in the nearly
two months since the June 12 Singapore summit. American over-optimism about
quick denuclearization (fueled by Trump) created frustration and
disappointment when the North Koreans dragged their feet. US pressure for
faster progress brought North Korean protests at supposed “gangster-like
tactics.”The Korean fog has cleared, at least momentarily, because of a
series of confidence-building measures by Kim that, although they didn’t
move toward denuclearization, at least suggested good faith. The North
Koreans last month dismantled rocket-testing and satellite-launch
facilities, and then delivered the promised servicemen’s remains.
Washington wants to begin the denuclearization process with a detailed
inventory of North Korean materials and sites. Pyongyang has delayed, at
least publicly, seeking more American goodwill gestures.
A key issue ahead for the United States and the two Koreas is a proposed
joint declaration of the formal end of the Korean War. At their Panmunjom
summit on April 27, Moon and Kim pledged that this declaration would be
issued before the year’s end. The United States has resisted, wanting North
Korea to deliver more on denuclearization. A formal declaration of the war’s
end would foster denuclearization “by alleviating the worries of North Korea
over the security of its regime,” argues a fact sheet published by South
Korea after the Panmunjom summit. Seoul believes that this declaration,
perhaps co-signed by China, wouldn’t affect the status of US forces in South
Korea. Indeed, Seoul argues that both North and South may privately agree on
the utility of US troops as a way of checking Chinese hegemony over the
Korean Peninsula. South Korean Ambassador to the United States Cho Yoon-je
explained the importance of the end-of-war declaration and other
confidence-building measures as a bridge to denuclearization in an interview
last week. “It is our firm belief that the enhanced exchange and
communications between the two Koreas will help facilitate the
denuclearization dialogue,” he said. In other words, the path from Pyongyang
to Washington may lead through Seoul. South Korea is also pushing for North
Korea to work with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as a
start toward gradual inclusion in the global economy. Cho told me that the
IMF and World Bank “would not only provide loans but, more importantly, also
policy advice for economic transition.” Again, the United States appears
wary of making these concessionary gestures before North Korea takes
verifiable steps toward dismantling its nuclear capability. On July 27,
North Korea celebrated the anniversary of its “victory” in the Korean War.
Former CIA analyst Robert Carlin noted that previously, North Korea had
boasted that it defeated “US-led imperialist aggressors.” This year’s
statement just referred to “imperialists.” In such small semantic changes,
we see how large transformations could eventually be wrought.
National Rivalries and Avoiding Collision
Hal Brands/Bloomberg/August 06/18
When Henry Kissinger traveled to China in 1971, he did more than end nearly
a quarter-century of estrangement between Washington and Beijing. He also
managed the diplomatic coup of splitting America’s foremost enemies — China
and the Soviet Union — and thereby vaulting the US from a position of
strategic overstretch to one of strategic advantage. Now that America is
facing renewed hostility with Moscow and Beijing, the Donald Trump
administration has reportedly been thinking about trying to repeat the
performance, this time by conciliating Russia in hopes of turning it against
an increasingly formidable China. It’s a neat idea for a superpower under
strain, but it probably won’t work until things get both much better and
much worse. At first glance, the geopolitical logic of playing Russia and
China off each other would seem impeccable. The two nations pose the
greatest threats to American influence and the stability of the U.S.-led
international system. They are conducting parallel campaigns to carve out
spheres of influence, weaken US alliances and partnerships, and project
their power globally.
Yet in the past these nations have competed more often than they have
cooperated; they have fought wars hot and cold against each other. Today,
they remain rivals for influence in Central Asia and elsewhere, and history
would suggest that two enormously ambitious, continent-sized countries with
thousands of miles of shared border will eventually turn against each other,
and they know it. The US, meanwhile, could certainly use a reduction in the
number of adversaries it faces. America is rapidly approaching strategic
insolvency — the point at which its global commitments exceed its ability to
uphold them. If it could reach a new détente with Russia, it might decrease
US defense burdens in Eastern Europe, where capabilities are badly stressed.
Surely, then, a smart administration would avoid confronting Russia and
China simultaneously, and perhaps even form a strategic partnership with
Moscow to address the larger long-term threat from Beijing. This is
essentially the feat Kissinger and Richard Nixon pulled off decades ago,
albeit with China in Russia’s position and vice versa. Observing the obvious
hostility and growing violence of the Sino-Soviet split, the Nixon
administration opened a relationship with the weaker party, China, in order
to balance the stronger party — the Soviet Union.
Over the course of the 1970s and 1980s, US officials gradually built that
relationship into an informal alliance geared toward containing and rolling
back Soviet influence. “We can work together to commonly deal with a
bastard,” Mao told Kissinger in 1973 — and this is just what the two
countries did, through progressively greater cooperation in the diplomatic,
economic, intelligence and even military realms.
The strategic gains this shift produced were immense. It profoundly
disturbed the Soviet Union — the US was creating “a new strategic alignment
of forces in international politics in Asia and in the world as a whole,”
one senior Kremlin official wrote. Kissinger’s “triangular diplomacy”
confronted the Soviets, rather than the Americans, with the dilemma of
confronting two powerful, colluding rivals, thereby contributing
significantly to the West’s ultimate triumph in the Cold War.
This is undoubtedly the analogy that strategists both inside and outside the
Trump administration have in mind when pushing for rapprochement with Russia
as a way of exerting greater pressure on China. Alas, the analogy doesn’t
really work, at least not yet.
The fundamental reason is that the forces pushing Russia and China together
are far stronger than those driving them apart. In the late 1960s, the
Soviet Union and China had reached the brink of war — perhaps nuclear war —
due to their explosive rivalry for leadership of the communist world. Today,
Moscow and Beijing are playing together nicely. They are cooperating
extensively on issues such as development of military technology, military
exercises in hot spots from the South China Sea to the Baltic, promoting
pro-authoritarian norms of global governance (such as the concept of
“internet sovereignty”), and strengthening autocratic rule in countries from
Kazakhstan to Venezuela.
They are doing so because both countries seek to undermine a US-led
international order that they believe inhibits their influence and prestige,
and because they both are ruled by autocratic regimes that perceive an
existential ideological threat from a democratic superpower. Russian and
Chinese leaders have been talking about formally about a strategic
partnership in opposition to U.S. primacy since the 1990s; they seem to have
achieved it today.
Diplomacy, however, is the art of finding opportunity in difficulty. So
could America break this axis of autocracy by pursuing a less
confrontational policy toward Putin? Maybe, but the price would probably be
astronomical.
In the long term, China represents the larger threat to U.S. interests, as a
result of its vast economic and military potential. Yet in the near term,
Vladimir Putin has proved himself to be the more dangerous and disruptive
actor. The Russian leader has launched three major military interventions
over the last decade — in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria — and carried out
audacious attacks on Western political systems. Putin probably thinks that
this offensive is progressing fairly well right now, given Russia’s military
success in Ukraine and Syria, his low-cost/high-payoff intervention in U.S.
electoral politics in 2016, and the deep internal crises afflicting the
European Union and NATO.
It would thus take a truckload of concessions for the US to persuade Putin
to stop pushing against an enfeebled West and strike up a new hostility with
his erstwhile Chinese partner in the east. This would not be the “Ukraine
for Syria” swap that some administration officials reportedly favor (whereby
Washington would drop Ukraine-related sanctions on Moscow in exchange for
Russian counter-terrorism assistance in Syria). It would probably require a
far broader range of accommodations, including, but not limited to,
dismantling the deterrent to Russian aggression that NATO has begun to
construct in Eastern Europe and the Baltic. Those concessions, in turn,
would further compromise a US alliance structure that is already reeling
from the blows Trump has dealt it, most recently at the G-7 meeting in
Canada and the NATO summit in Brussels. America might well find itself
destroying some part of the international system in order to save it.This
does not mean that there will never come a chance to enlist Russia as part
of an anti-China coalition. But doing so would likely require matters to
shift, for the worse and also for the better. On the one hand, the threat
that Russia perceives from China would have to worsen considerably: perhaps
because Chinese power and assertiveness continue to grow as Russia’s
long-term geopolitical potential continues to decline; or perhaps because
Chinese expansionism begins to fundamentally threaten Moscow’s security
interests in places such as Central Asia or even Siberia.
On the other hand, Putin or his successors would have to be convinced that
Russia needs a better relationship with the West — that the price of
confronting the US and its European allies is simply too high — and that a
more moderate posture is warranted. For Moscow to join the West in
containing China, it must first conclude that it can’t beat the West by
cooperating with China. If and when these conditions are satisfied, America
may need a new Kissinger who excels in the art of triangular diplomacy.
Until then, trying to counter China by buying off Russia is likely to prove
a costly mistake.
How Robots and Tariffs Spoiled the DBS Party
Andy Mukherjee/Bloomberg/August 06/18
Not so long ago, Singapore’s biggest bank used to be gung-ho about its
trading operations. So much so that when DBS Group Holdings Ltd. moved its
headquarters of nearly four decades, it made sure the dealing room was 40
percent larger.
It must have been a rather empty hall in the June quarter. Net interest
income of just S$91 million ($66 million) in treasury and markets, not even
half of the division’s quarterly average for the past 10 years, can be
blamed partly on flat yield curves, which crimped the “carry” — the profit
potential of holding longer-dated securities by borrowing short-term funds.
A ballooning of Asian credit spreads, triggered by US-China trade tensions,
could also have contributed to the division’s S$50 million loss, a big swing
from a S$112 million pretax profit in the previous quarter.
However, given that the decline in treasury and markets is not a flash in
the pan (interest income of the division has been steadily ebbing for more
than three years), there could be more structural forces at play here.
Let’s call it the shadow of robots — or trading algorithms.
As Nisha Gopalan and I wrote last month, with the “flow” business of trading
bonds, stocks and foreign-exchange for clients comprising 51 percent of
investment banks’ global markets revenue of $109.8 billion last year,
automation of even vanilla trades is no small risk. DBS’s earnings report is
an indication of that threat even for commercial banks that have sizable
trading operations. The core banking business, meanwhile, is in good shape.
Customer loans grew 12 percent from a year earlier in the quarter, even as
the net interest margin swelled to 1.85 percent — an 11 basis-point
improvement. The bad-loan problem of 2016 is now in the rear-view
mirror.Still, DBS shares fell as much as 3 percent after the bank pruned
full-year loan growth guidance to between 6 percent and 7 percent, from 8
percent. That’s partly because of the unexpected property cooling measures
recently announced by Singapore, but mostly because CEO Piyush Gupta is now
more pessimistic on trade loans.
Singapore’s state-owned investment firm Temasek Holdings Pte has now heard
two dramatically different assessments of the consequences of a global trade
war from two of its banks. Temasek has a little more than 29 percent of DBS
and is also the third-largest shareholder in Standard Chartered Plc, whose
CEO Bill Winters said rising tariffs were “no big deal for us” and may even
be a good thing in the medium term.
Whom should Temasek boss Ho Ching believe? DBS bumped up the dividend for
the first half of the year by a staggering 82 percent. Meanwhile,
StanChart’s first interim dividend since 2015 fell short of expectations
this week. Maybe Winters should walk his optimistic talk by writing bigger
checks?
The US, Italy, and International Trade
Cesare Sacchetti/Gatestone Institute/August 06/18
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/12805/us-italy-international-trade
It is not farfetched to think that Italy's "government of change" will try
to break the euro and leave the monetary union. Such a move would likely
cause a domino effect on the whole structure of the euro, which could
collapse without the presence of its third-largest economy.
Contrary to what the leadership of countries such as Germany seem to
believe, there is life outside the EU and the euro, and Italy would be happy
to reestablish profitable trade agreements directly with the US. One would
hope that Trump realizes this and will take advantage of the opportunity.
Since the end of World War II, and throughout the Cold War, the ties between
Italy and the United States have been close, although also rocky at times.
On one hand, Rome played a fundamental role in tipping the balance of power
in favor of NATO in its face-off with the Warsaw Pact. On the other hand,
some Italian historians have described Italy's side in the relationship as
one of limited sovereignty, with American interference in Italian affairs.
Today, however, the situation is different. Washington, under the
administration of President Donald Trump, is no longer part of the
traditional "deep state"; and Rome, under the government of Prime Minister
Giuseppe Conte, is no longer prone to foreign interference. With his
"America first" doctrine, Trump is calling into question the very existence
of the "liberal international order." One realm in which this doctrine is
being implemented is international trade. The US is the only country in the
world that possesses what former French President Valéry Giscard D'Estaing,
when he served as finance minister, called "exorbitant privilege" -- due to
the US dollar being the international reserve currency, used in practically
every international transaction.
For the US to maintain this privilege, it had to supply the rest of the
world with American dollars. This was part of what led of mass imports from
other countries into the US, the result of which often was a rise in
unemployment in the US, according to some economists. It is this state of
affairs that Trump is aiming to rectify, through a tariff policy directed
mainly at China and Germany -- two countries that run huge trade surpluses.
In January 2017, Trump told the Wall Street Journal that the Chinese yuan is
"dropping like a rock," and therefore "[o]ur companies can't compete with
them now because our currency is too strong. And it's killing us."
Two weeks later, Peter Navarro, the head of Trump's then-newly established
National Trade Council, accused Germany of exploiting the "grossly
undervalued" euro -- which, in an interview with the Financial Times, he
called an "implicit Deutsche Mark" -- to gain an advantage over the US, as
well as other European Union (eurozone) countries.
This is where Italy comes in. As Joseph E. Stiglitz, author of The Euro: How
a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe, recently explained:
"Italy, the eurozone's third largest economy, has chosen what can at best be
described as a Euroskeptic government. This should surprise no one. The
backlash in Italy is another predictable (and predicted) episode in the long
saga of a poorly designed currency arrangement, in which the dominant power,
Germany, impedes the necessary reforms and insists on policies that
exacerbate the inherent problems, using rhetoric seemingly intended to
inflame passions."
Italy seems to be looking for powerful allies outside the EU to challenge
German economic expansionism -- something that creates a unique convergence
of interests between Rome and Washington. Unlike in the past, today's
convergence of interests does not rely on or involve Italian subordination
to America. In fact, Trump, it seems, would like to see a resurgence of
individual nation states and the reduction of American meddling in the
affairs of foreign countries. In other words, the new Washington-Rome
relationship appears to be based on mutual respect for national sovereignty.
Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte (left) shakes hands with the US
President Donald Trump on the at the G7 Summit, on June 8, 2018 in La
Malbaie, Canada.
In the autumn, the Italian government will debate the new budget package. If
it questions the austerity policies that have been completely ineffective
where economic growth is concerned -- and if Brussels refuses to give Rome
any deficit-spending concessions -- it is not farfetched to think that
Italy's "government of change" will try to break the euro and leave the
monetary union. Such a move would likely cause a domino effect on the whole
structure of the euro, which could collapse without the presence of its
third-largest economy.
Trump would probably view an "Italexit" scenario favorably, given his
remarks to CBS Evening News in July about the EU being a trade "foe" in
trade. If so, Rome's policies are crucial. To end the "liberal international
order," Trump must inevitably target one of its main structures, the EU. In
this effort, he would do well to rely on Italy, which seems to be his only
EU ally with the political weight to achieve such an ambitious objective.
Contrary to what the leadership of countries such as Germany seem to
believe, there is life outside the EU and the euro, and Italy would be happy
to reestablish profitable trade agreements directly with the US. One would
hope that Trump realizes this and will take advantage of the opportunity.
**Cesare Sacchetti is an Italian journalist who has worked for two major
Italian national newspapers, Il Fatto Quotidiano and Libero Quotidiano. He
writes mainly on the economics, EU affairs, Italian politics and foreign
affairs. Follow him on Twitter: @CesareSacchetti
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here
do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone
Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be
reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of
Gatestone Institute.
UK: Discrimination against Christian Refugees
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/August 06/18
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/12796/britain-christian-refugees
The UN recommended 1,358 Syrian refugees for resettlement in Britain during
the first quarter of 2018, of whom only four were Christians. Britain agreed
to resettle 1,112 of these refugees, all of whom were Muslims, and refused
to accept the Christians.
"As last year's statistics more than amply demonstrate, this is not a
statistical blip. It shows a pattern of discrimination that the Government
has a legal duty to take concrete steps to address." — Lord David Alton of
Liverpool, in a letter to UK Home Secretary Sajid Javid.
What specific initiatives, other than empty words, does the UK government
aim to take to rectify the damage that has already been done and to prevent
it from happening again?
The British government appears recently to have decided that it would like
to give the impression that it cares about persecuted Christians. Prime
Minister Theresa May said in Parliament on July 18:
"As a Government we stand with persecuted Christians all over the world and
will continue to support them. It is hard to comprehend that today we still
see people being attacked and murdered because of their Christianity, but we
must reaffirm our determination to stand up for the freedom of people of all
religions and beliefs and for them to be able to practise their beliefs in
peace and security."
The British Government even recently appointed its first Special Envoy on
Freedom of Religion or Belief with Lord Tariq Ahmad of Wimbledon, a former
minister, filling the post. According to the government, the role "will
promote the UK's firm stance on religious tolerance abroad, helping to
tackle religious discrimination in countries where minority faith groups
face persecution".
Prime Minister May said she looked "forward to supporting [Lord Ahmad] in
this new role as he works with faith groups and governments across the world
to raise understanding of religious persecution and what we can do to
eliminate it."
Perhaps the UK should not be so quick to preach to others, when it does not
appear to be doing much at home to help Syrian Christians, who have been
among the most persecuted for their faith since the civil war in Syria began
seven years ago:
According to information obtained from the UK Home Office by the Barnabas
Fund, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), during the first
quarter of 2018, recommended 1,358 Syrian refugees for resettlement in the
UK, of which only four refugees were Christians (no Yazidis were
recommended). The Home Office agreed to resettle 1,112 of these refugees,
all of whom were Muslims, and refused to accept the Christians.
This decision was made despite the fact that approximately 10% of the
pre-2011 population of Syria was Christian – a number that has reportedly
fallen to 5%. There were also an estimated 70,000 Yazidis in Syria. Yazidis,
with Christians, were among the groups most viciously targeted by ISIS in
Syria and Iraq. In 2017, moreover, according to the Barnabas Fund, the UNHCR
recommended 7,060 Syrian refugees for resettlement in the UK, of whom only
25 were Christians and seven were Yazidis. The Home Office ended up
accepting 4,850 Syrian refugees – of whom only 11 were Christians.
While the UK appears to favor Muslim refugees over Christian ones, the fault
does not lie with the UK alone. Lord David Alton of Liverpool, a life peer
in the House of Lords, wrote in a letter to Home Secretary Sajid Javid:
"There is widespread belief, justified or not, among the religious
minorities of Syria that the UNHCR is biased against them. The UK has a
legal obligation to ensure it does not turn a blind eye to either direct or
indirect perceived discrimination by the UN.
"It is widely accepted that Christians, who constituted around 10 per cent
of Syria's pre-war population, were specifically targeted by jihadi rebels
and continue to be at risk.
"...As last year's statistics more than amply demonstrate, this is not a
statistical blip. It shows a pattern of discrimination that the Government
has a legal duty to take concrete steps to address."
There certainly does appear to be "a pattern of discrimination" that has
been ongoing since at least 2015. According to the Barnabas Fund, the UNHCR,
in 2016, recommended 7,499 refugees to the UK, of whom only 27 were
Christians and five were Yazidis. In 2015, out of 2,637 recommended
refugees, 43 were Christians and 13 were Yazidis.
In December 2016, Nina Shea, Director of the Center for Religious Freedom of
the Hudson Institute, asked the UN's High Commissioner for Refugees at the
time, António Guterres, to explain the disproportionately low number of
Syrian Christians resettled abroad by the UN. "Mr. Guterres said that
generally Syria's Christians should not be resettled, because they are part
of the 'DNA of the Middle East,'" writes Shea.
Guterres' statement was a blunt admission of the UN's apparent disregard for
Christian lives, not least because only 9 months earlier, in March 2016, US
Secretary of State John Kerry had said, "(ISIS) is responsible for genocide
against groups in areas under its control including Yazidis, Christians and
Shiite Muslims". The UN itself stated in September 2005:
"[A]t the United Nations World Summit, all Member States formally accepted
the responsibility of each State to protect its population from genocide,
war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. that all member
states had accepted "the responsibility of each State to protect its
population from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against
humanity... world leaders also agreed that when any State fails to meet that
responsibility, all States (the "international community") are responsible
for helping to protect people threatened with such crimes.".
The apparent discrimination against Christians by the United Kingdom and the
UNHCR is all the more disturbing in light of studies that find Christians to
be the most persecuted faith in the world. Christians are "the most widely
targeted religious community, suffering terrible persecution globally",
according to a 2017 study by the University of Notre Dame's Center for
Ethics and Culture, the Religious Freedom Institute and Georgetown
University's Religious Freedom Research Project. In June, the ninth annual
Pew Research Center report on global religious restrictions also found that
Christianity was still the world's most persecuted faith, with Christians
being harassed in more countries (144) than any other group.
In light of these facts, it would certainly appear, as Lord Alton states in
his letter, that the UK has indeed been "turning a blind eye" to the plight
of Christian (and Yazidi) refugees for several years. Now that May has
announced that her government stands with persecuted Christians all over the
world, the question remains: What specific initiatives, other than empty
words, does the UK government aim to take to rectify the damage that has
already been done and to prevent further damage?
The UN recommended 1,358 Syrian refugees for resettlement in Britain during
the first quarter of 2018, of whom only four were Christians. The UK Home
Office agreed to resettle 1,112 of these refugees, all of whom were Muslims,
and refused to accept the Christians.
*Judith Bergman is a columnist, lawyer and political analyst.
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Gatestone Institute
Analysis: Iran reaches crisis point as
U.S. sanctions return
Michael Wilner/Jerusalem Post/August 06/18
Washington’s harshest sanctions will come back into effect on November 4, by
which date the Trump administration hopes to decimate Iran’s oil export
market.
WASHINGTON – Faced with a spiraling currency crisis, protests nationwide and
the return of biting American sanctions on Monday, Iran’s government is
poised to take a series of actions this week meant to project defiance
abroad and control at home.
Protests that have slowly simmered since January spread last week to Iran’s
largest cities, including Shiraz, Isfahan, and sporadically throughout
Tehran itself, as corruption, mismanagement and external financial
restrictions began to take their toll. The rial hit a new low as locals
prepared for the US Treasury Department to cut off Iran’s access to the
dollar, severely hampering the country’s ability to conduct basic financial
transactions.
One man was shot dead in the city of Karaj protesting the dilapidated state
of the economy while hundreds more were allegedly arrested in cities from
Eshtehard to Arak, in a round of demonstrations covered by state-run media
outlets largely dismissive of the movement thus far.
Last week, in a show of force to Washington and its Gulf allies, the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps’ naval forces conducted a drill in the Strait of
Hormuz typically held later in the year and with an extensive publicity
lead-up. Over 100 “swarming” boats practiced closing the critical strait,
demonstrating Iran’s ability to “control and maintain the security of the
international waterway” and “confront threats and potential adventurous acts
of enemies,” an IRGC spokesman said on Sunday.
Over 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait each day.
Then, on Saturday, the government approved plans by Iran’s Central Bank to
limit access to official currency rates to essential imports and to restrict
foreign currency access to local businesses. The emergency moves came as the
rial hit 111,000 to the dollar, and marks part of a financial “rescue
package” that Tehran plans to unveil in full on Monday, a Central Bank
spokesman told local press, as the first round of US sanctions previously
lifted under a 2015 international nuclear deal snap back into place.
In addition to cutting off Iran from dollars and gold, US sanctions enforced
on Monday will also restrict Iran’s access to industrial metals and target
the country’s automotive sector, its exports of carpets and its sale of
pistachios.
Washington’s harshest sanctions will come back into effect on November 4, by
which date the Trump administration hopes to decimate Iran’s oil export
market.
Cash strapped and desperate, Tehran has reportedly sought to withdraw funds
parked overseas with limited success. According to The Wall Street Journal,
Iran may lose access to $400 million of its money sat in a German account if
Berlin proceeds with a new financial rule that would bar transactions
adversely affecting its relationship with fellow central banks and
institutions – in particular, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department.
Iran did receive five French-made turboprop planes over the weekend for its
domestic commercial fleet, marking what may be Tehran’s last tangible
benefit from its nuclear agreement with world powers. That 2015 accord –
brokered with France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China, and the US – had
exchanged caps on Iran’s nuclear work for international sanctions relief.
Since US President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in May,
businesses that were testing the waters in Iran have largely fled, fearing
instability and a cutoff from the US financial system.
Iranian officials say they may pull out of the agreement themselves, or
begin enriching uranium anew, unless Europe can guarantee it the benefits it
was promised under the nuclear deal. To that end, talks between Tehran and
European powers have stalled.