LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 14/17
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations

No immoral, impure or greedy person—such a person is an idolater—has any inheritance in the kingdom of Christ and of God
Ephesians 05/01-33/Follow God’s example, therefore, as dearly loved children and walk in the way of love, just as Christ loved us and gave himself up for us as a fragrant offering and sacrifice to God. But among you there must not be even a hint of sexual immorality, or of any kind of impurity, or of greed, because these are improper for God’s holy people. Nor should there be obscenity, foolish talk or coarse joking, which are out of place, but rather thanksgiving. For of this you can be sure: No immoral, impure or greedy person—such a person is an idolater—has any inheritance in the kingdom of Christ and of God. Let no one deceive you with empty words, for because of such things God’s wrath comes on those who are disobedient. Therefore do not be partners with them. For you were once darkness, but now you are light in the Lord. Live as children of light for the fruit of the light consists in all goodness, righteousness and trut and find out what pleases the Lord. Have nothing to do with the fruitless deeds of darkness, but rather expose them. It is shameful even to mention what the disobedient do in secret. But everything exposed by the light becomes visible—and everything that is illuminated becomes a light. This is why it is said: “Wake up, sleeper, rise from the dead, and Christ will shine on you.”Be very careful, then, how you live—not as unwise but as wise, making the most of every opportunity, because the days are evil. Therefore do not be foolish, but understand what the Lord’s will is. Do not get drunk on wine, which leads to debauchery. Instead, be filled with the Spirit, speaking to one another with psalms, hymns, and songs from the Spirit. Sing and make music from your heart to the Lord, always giving thanks to God the Father for everything, in the name of our Lord Jesus Christ.

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 13-14/17
What will Happen if Russia Left Syria/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/December 13/2017
Duterte considers autonomy for restive Muslim province/Abdulla Almadani/Al Arabiya/December 13/2017
Fundamentalism and terrorism: Is it a British awakening/Abdullah bin Bijad Al-Otaibii/Al Arabiya/December 13/2017
Cinema makes a comeback in Saudi Arabia/Mamdouh AlMuhaini/Al Arabiya/December 13/2017
Locked up in the Islamic Republic of Iran/Denis MacEoin/Gatestone Institute/December 13/17
Jihad Festering in America/A. Z. Mohamed/Gatestone Institute/December 13/17
Islamic Extremism: Who is Purest of Them All/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/December 13/17
Analysis After a Dozen Gaza Rockets in a Week, Israel Is Being Backed Into a Corner/Amos Harel/Haaretz/December 13/2017
Analysis Three Reasons We Aren't Seeing a Third Intifada/Anshel Pfeffer/Haaretz/December 13/2017

Titles For Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on December 13-14/17
U.S. to Give Lebanon Attack Helicopters as Visiting General Hails LAF
Aoun Urges Palestine Recognition, Penalization of States that Accept Jerusalem as Israel Capital
Israeli Minister Threatens to Return Lebanon to 'Stone Age'
Al-Rahi Meets Hariri, Says Dissociation Policy Must be Complemented by Defense Strategy
Bassil at OIC Urges for Empirical Measures on Jerusalem
Acting UN Special Coordinator Takes Up Position in Lebanon
Report: Electoral Alliances Shaping, Five-Party Coalition Excludes LF, Kataeb
Hariri: Issue of Hizbullah Bigger than Lebanon, Alliance with Aoun Best for Country
French Prosecutors Urge Trial for Lebanese-Canadian Held over 1980 Attack
John Fraser’s Bill to Proclaim November as Lebanese Heritage Month
Geagea: Lebanon is a Sovereign State, We are not Concerned with

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 13-14/17
Muslim Leaders Urge World to Recognize E. Jerusalem as Palestine Capital
Abbas Warns 'No Peace or Stability' without Jerusalem as Palestinian Capital
Mahmoud Abbas: Trump’s ‘crime’ over Jerusalem prevents US peace role
OIC Summit Stresses Rejection of US Decision on Jerusalem
Islamic Summit: Trump’s decision on Jerusalem nourishes terrorism
U.S.-Led Airstrikes Kill 23 Civilians in Syria
Israel Intel Minister Wants Saudi Crown Prince to Visit
Israel hits Hamas in Gaza after rocket fire at Israeli city
Syrian Opposition Insists on Direct Negotiations with Regime
Iran: Revolutionary Guard Patrols to Stifle Social Unrest, Interior Ministry Objects
US National Security Advisor: Qatar main sponsor of extremist ideologies
Multiple earthquakes hit southeastern Iran
US air strike destroys vehicle bomb outside Mogadishu
Kim Vows to 'Win Victory In the Showdown' with US

Latest Lebanese Related News published on December 13-14/17
U.S. to Give Lebanon Attack Helicopters as Visiting General Hails LAF
Naharnet/Associated/Agence France Presse/December 13/17/The United States on Wednesday announced new assistance to the Lebanese military including helicopters and other advanced military equipment. The new assistance package was disclosed during a visit by the head of U.S. Central Command Gen. Joseph Votel to Lebanon on Wednesday during which he met with Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Defense Minister Yaacoub el-Sarraf and Army chief General Joseph Aoun. Speaking after the meeting with Hariri at the Grand Serail, American Ambassador Elizabeth Richard said the package, valued at more than $120 million, includes six new light attack helicopters, six unmanned aerial vehicles and communication and night vision devices. She said the equipment will help the army "build on its steady strong capability to conduct border security and counterterrorism operations."“We had an excellent conversation about the challenges facing Lebanon and the region. We also talked about how the U.S. and the broader international community can support Lebanon in these challenging times. Just last week, for example, the International Support Group for Lebanon met in Paris to recognize Prime Minister Hariri as a major partner in managing Lebanon’s unity and stability,” Richard added. “The ISG drew attention to the Lebanese Cabinet’s reaffirmation of a policy of disassociation from conflict and regional wars, and it recalled Lebanon’s previous commitments under U.N. Security Council Resolutions, including 1559 and 1701,” she noted. Votel for his part described the Lebanese Armed Forces as “professional, proficient, and focused on the Lebanese people.”“We are extremely proud of their performance and very glad to be associated with them,” he added. Richard and Votel also visited the Lebanese Military Academy. Washington has been a major supporter of Lebanon's army, and has provided more than $1 billion in military assistance to Lebanon since 2006. According to a U.S. Embassy statement, the first program will provide the LAF “a rotary wing close air support capability through delivery of six new MD 530G light attack helicopters and associated equipment and training, valued at more $94 million.”The second program will provide the LAF additional command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) capabilities through the delivery of six new Scan Eagle unmanned aerial vehicles and associated equipment and training, valued at more than $11 million. The third program will provide the LAF additional capabilities to employ joint fire support and close air support through the delivery of communications equipment, electronics equipment, night vision devices, and training, valued at more than $16 million. The announcement of these programs “reaffirms the U.S. Government’s commitment to the Lebanese-American partnership and support of the Lebanese Armed Forces in their capacity as the sole defender of Lebanon,” the U.S. Embassy said. Aram Nerguizian, a senior associate at the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Wednesday's announcement marked the first time the Lebanese Armed Forces would receive attack helicopters. He said the LAF had needed aircraft for close air support, precision targeting, and intelligence gathering and surveillance. "It was also looking for a system that could operate at altitude -- such as Lebanon's frontier with Syria, which is well above sea level -- and that is reasonably easy to maintain and sustain," Nerguizian told AFP. "The MD530G is intended to meet those requirements." Lebanon received this year the first batch of six A-29 Super Tucano light attack aircraft from the U.S., which also announced it would deliver 32 infantry fighting vehicles known as M2A2 Bradleys to the LAF. "Each provides a degree of sophistication and capability that far exceeds the LAF's mix of capabilities in the post-War period, and all of them are far more lethal than appearance alone suggests," Nerguizian said.

Aoun Urges Palestine Recognition, Penalization of States that Accept Jerusalem as Israel Capital
Naharnet/December 13/17/President Michel Aoun on Wednesday called on the international community to recognize Palestine as a state and urged Muslim nations to penalize any state that recognizes Jerusalem as Israel's capital. Muslim nations “should file an urgent complaint with the Security Council and the U.N. in the name of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in order to block the United States' decision and oblige the U.S. to annul it,” Aoun told an emergency OIC summit in Istanbul that was called to discuss U.S. leader Donald Trump's controversial recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital. “A diplomatic campaign should be launched to increase the number of states that recognize Palestine as a state ahead of granting it full U.N. membership, while taking the necessary legal, political and diplomatic measures to recognize east Jerusalem as its capital,” Aoun added. The president called on Muslim nations to “take unified and gradual diplomatic and economic punitive measures against any state that might recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital.” He also called for “clinging to the Arab Peace Initiative and all its stipulations” and for finding “an impartial international mediator in order to reactivate it.”“Otherwise, we should withdraw it,” Aoun went on to say. The Arab Peace Initiative, also known as the "Saudi Initiative", is a proposal for an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict that was endorsed by the Arab League in 2002 at the Beirut Summit and re-endorsed at the 2007 and 2017 Arab League summits. The initiative calls for normalizing relations between Arab states and Israel in exchange for a full withdrawal by Israel from the occupied territories, including East Jerusalem, and a "just settlement" of the Palestinian refugee problem based on U.N. Resolution 194.
On the sidelines of the Istanbul summit, Aoun met Wednesday with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Jordanian King Abdullah II, Kuwait Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad.

Israeli Minister Threatens to Return Lebanon to 'Stone Age'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 13/17/Israeli Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz on Wednesday issued a fresh warning to Lebanon and Hizbullah. Israel and Hezbollah fought a war in 2006 and often trade warnings. In an interview with Elaph, a news website run by a Saudi businessman, Katz said if Hizbullah initiates a war against Israel, "this time all of Lebanon will be a target." "What happened in 2006 would be a picnic compared to what could happen... I say Lebanon will return to the stone age​," he threatened. Israel fought a devastating war against Hizbullah in Lebanon in 2006 that killed more than 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 120 Israelis, most of them soldiers.

Al-Rahi Meets Hariri, Says Dissociation Policy Must be Complemented by Defense Strategy
Naharnet/December 13/17/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi held talks Wednesday with Prime Minister Saad Hariri on the latest local and regional developments. “I was honored to meet with the premier to congratulate him on his safe return and on the statement that was issued by the government,” al-Rahi added after the Grand Serail meeting, referring to a statement in which Hariri's government reaffirmed its commitment to distancing Lebanon from regional conflicts. “I also congratulated him on the withdrawal of his resignation, the new beginning, the meeting of the International Support Group for Lebanon in Paris, and the meetings that will take place in the future,” al-Rahi added. “I visited him to congratulate him on all of that and to tell him how much his presence in Lebanon at the head of the government is important and how much it gives confidence to the Lebanese. I also expressed to him our permanent love and support,” the patriarch said. Asked about the dissociation policy, al-Rahi underlined the need for “all government components to abide by it.”“The dissociation policy should be complemented by a common national defense strategy,” the patriarch added. He said Lebanon should be a “neutral country so that it can serve everyone.” “Lebanon's role in the Arab world is the neutral role that serves all Arab countries. It should support peace, justice and rights without being part of any regional or international axes,” al-Rahi emphasized. But he noted that “as we will commit to the dissociation policy, other countries should also dissociate themselves from our Lebanese affairs instead of dragging us into axes that we have nothing to do with.”
“We can play a role without being in any axis,” al-Rahi added.

Bassil at OIC Urges for Empirical Measures on Jerusalem
Naharnet/December 13/17/Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil emphasized on Tuesday that world leaders must take practical decisions measuring with the magnitude of danger threatening Jerusalem after a US decision to recognize it as the capital of Israel, the National News Agency reported Tuesday. Bassil, who accompanied President Michel Aoun and a high-ranking delegation to Istanbul, spoke at an emergency Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit on Jerusalem on the move by US President Donald Trump. Bassil said the summit must come out with “decisions and practical measures that commensurate with the magnitude of danger threatening Jerusalem for what it symbolizes for Muslims, Christians and Jews.”Bassil said the outcome of the summit must level up to the “weight” and importance of 57 states that make up the OIC. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday chairs an emergency summit of the world's main pan-Islamic body, seeking to marshal Muslim leaders towards a coordinated response to the US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital. Erdogan, whose country holds the rotating chairmanship of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) will be hoping to unite often feuding Muslim leaders into a tough final statement on the move by US President Donald Trump.

Acting UN Special Coordinator Takes Up Position in Lebanon
Naharnet/December 13/17/Pernille Dahler Kardel arrived in Beirut to take up her new position as Acting United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL), a press release said on Tuesday. Kardel was received by an official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at Beirut Rafik Hariri international airport.“I am delighted to begin my new functions in Lebanon and I look forward to working with Lebanese and international partners and the rest of the UN family in support of Lebanon’s peace and security, stability and socio-economic development,” she said. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced the appointment of Kardel (Denmark) on 22 November. Kardel succeeds Sigrid Kaag of the Netherlands.Kardel brings 25 years of experience in diplomacy, political affairs, international cooperation and economic development, spanning several continents.

Report: Electoral Alliances Shaping, Five-Party Coalition Excludes LF, Kataeb
Naharnet/December 13/17/Hizbullah has been reportedly “taking all positive steps towards Prime Minister Saad Hariri” and “giving him a push” to practice his role as premier in response to Saudi Arabia's latest stance when “it tried to impose a “fait accompli” and force the PM to resign,” Ad Diyar daily reported Tuesday. Based on this, electoral alliances for the 2018 parliamentary elections have started taking shape and “consultations began between five political parties including Hizbullah, AMAL Movement, the Free Patriotic Movement, the Progressive Socialist party and al-Mustaqbal Movement,” according to the daily. The “five-party alliance is expected to form joint electoral lists in different electoral districts in Lebanon, but would exclude the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb party. It is not unlikely for head of Mustaqbal, PM Saad Hariri, to isolate the LF from the alliance,” it added.
The daily expected said alliance “to garner a majority of 75 to 80 votes in the Parliament out of 128 deputies.”On the other hand, the “Lebanese Forces are preparing to confront said coalition,” it added. Therefore, it is likely for head of the LF Samir Geagea to ask the LF ministers to “withdraw from the Cabinet” a couple of months before the elections start in order to “form an opposition front against the alliance,” according to Diyar. The LF is gearing up for its electoral campaign based on that, said the daily, although a meeting with the Kataeb party has not yet taken place nor has it been learned if an alliance between the two parties will happen in the upcoming months. “Electoral ties and cooperation have grown stronger between President Michel Aoun (FPM founder) and Speaker Nabih Berri (head of AMAL). This led to rapprochement between the two who are expected to wage the May 2018 in joint electoral lists with Hizbullah as well,” it concluded.

Hariri: Issue of Hizbullah Bigger than Lebanon, Alliance with Aoun Best for Country
Naharnet/December 13/17/Prime Minister Saad Hariri emphasized on Tuesday that political parties must commit to the country's dissociation policy for stability's sake stressing that "Hizbullah issue is bigger than Lebanon”, as he announced alliance with President Michel Aoun for the upcoming parliamentary elections. “Any political group seeking stability in Lebanon must adhere to the dissociation policy. I believe pushing all political parties towards a disassociation policy is a must. The best thing is to put aside our differences and move forward in the best for Lebanon's interest,” said Hariri. Hariri's remarks came in a televised discussion with Carnegie Middle East Center during its annual conference at the Phoenicia Hotel. To a question on Hizbullah, Hariri said: “The issue of Hizbullah is bigger than Lebanon. It is a regional issue that requires dialogue in order to be solved.” On the alliances of his party, al-Mustaqbal Movement, in the upcoming parliamentary polls the PM clarified that his movement will “strike alliances with different political parties. Our new alliance with the President (Michel Aoun) is in the interest of the country.”He was asked about a fiery statement he made two days ago about parties who allegedly tried to “stab him in the back” during the latest political crises, and his intention to “spill the beans” and say who they were in a televised talk show that was later postponed. “I did not say I was going to spill the beans in Marcel Ghanem talk show. I never indicated a certain date for the interview,” he remarked. On the crisis of Syrian refugees, Hariri said: “Lebanon is doing everything it can as a country to help the refugees. The international community has a responsibility to help Lebanon financially in supporting them. “If the de-escalation zones are safe, then with the help of the United Nations, the refugees should return back to Syria. Any political solution in Syria has to include a solution for the refugees.”However Hariri affirmed that “Lebanese-Syrian relations will be non-existent as long as Assad is in power.” On a US decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, he stated: “Trump's Jerusalem decision is not a wise one. We should all refuse Trump's decision. The only solution for Palestinian-Israeli conflict is the two-state solution; however Jerusalem decision has only made things worse.”On the oil and gas file, the PM assured that “this government will be the first to sign an oil and gas exploration contract.”

French Prosecutors Urge Trial for Lebanese-Canadian Held over 1980 Attack
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 13/17/French prosecutors have called for a Lebanese-Canadian academic suspected of the deadly 1980 bombing of a Paris synagogue to be put on trial, sources close to the investigation told the AFP news agency on Wednesday. The Paris prosecutor's office considers there to be "sufficient evidence" against Hassan Diab, who has been in preventive custody since his extradition from Canada in 2014, to try him over the October 3, 1980 attack, the sources said. The explosion, which left four dead and around 40 wounded, was the first fatal attack against the French Jewish community since the Nazi occupation in World War II. Diab, a 64-year-old Canadian of Lebanese descent who taught sociology at an Ottawa university, is accused of having carried out the attack on behalf of the Special Operations branch of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). French investigators believe he planted the bomb inside the saddle bag of a motorbike parked outside the packed synagogue near the Champs-Elysees, where hundreds of people had gathered for Sabbath prayers. By way of evidence, they point to a sketch of the bomber resembling Diab, the discovery of a passport in his name with entry and exit stamps from Spain, where the bomber is believed to have fled, and testimonies that Diab was a member of the PFLP in the early 1980s. Diab insists that he was taking exams in Beirut at the time of the attack, which witnesses have corroborated. The prosecution has admitted to "doubts" about his whereabouts but said it is a matter for a court to resolve. The final decision on whether the case should go to trial will be taken by an investigating magistrate. Diab was arrested by Canadian police in November 2008, at the request of French authorities, and extradited six years later. He has been charged with murder, attempted murder and destruction of property as part of a criminal organization. On two occasions, he was granted bail only to be taken back into custody after the decisions were overturned on appeal. A group of Canadian artists, activists and politicians, including filmmakers Atom Egoyan and political activist Naomi Klein, have taken up his case, urging Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to intervene to secure his release.

John Fraser’s Bill to Proclaim November as Lebanese Heritage Month
(TORONTO) – Today Bill 60, An Act to proclaim November as Lebanese Heritage Month in Ontario, was passed by the Legislative Assembly.
MPP John Fraser (Ottawa South) welcomed the support of his opposition colleagues, Lisa MacLeod (Nepean-Carleton) and Peggy Sattler (London West), to co-sponsor his bill.
This was made possible by the initiative of Government House Leader, Yasir Naqvi, to reach an agreement with the three parties to pass the bill.
There are over 86,000 Ontarians of Lebanese origins living in Ontario today. By proclaiming November as Lebanese Heritage Month, Ontario is affirming its commitment to embracing diversity by recognizing and educating future generations about the significant contributions Lebanese-Canadians have made since the late 19th century, across all fields, including in art, business, entertainment, media, sports and politics, in communities across the province.
November is a significant month for members of the Lebanese community, because each year on November 22 the Lebanese community celebrates Lebanese Independence Day, which declared Lebanon a sovereign nation in 1943.
“In my riding of Ottawa South, I am fortunate to represent many families of Lebanese descent. I know the rich heritage of the Lebanese people and I believe that it is important to celebrate all of our unique backgrounds. I would like all Ontarians to take the opportunity to learn more about the history and contributions of the Lebanese community across this great province.” – MPP John Fraser, Ottawa South
For information: Matthew Samulewski

Geagea: Lebanon is a Sovereign State, We are not Concerned with
Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/17/The head of the Lebanese Forces Party, Dr. Samir Geagea, slammed the recent positions of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, saying that speaking on behalf of the so-called ‘axis of resistance’ and setting plans to counter US President Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel violated Lebanese sovereignty. “I want to stop at one point in Nasrallah’s speech; it’s that he does not speak only on behalf of Hezbollah, but on behalf of the whole ‘resistance axis’, which he says has recently aborted conspiracies in Arab countries, especially in Syria, and is now setting comprehensive plans to address the issue of Jerusalem,” Geagea said, in an interview with Asharq al-Awsat. “Contrary to Nasrallah’s view on confronting conspiracies in Arab countries, and in Syria specifically, I believe that the ‘axis of resistance’ is the one behind the biggest conspiracy by supporting [Bashar] Assad’s regime and helping it survive for seven years now,” he added. Geagea criticized Hezbollah’s leader for “speaking on behalf of the axis of resistance in the entire region, and calling on them to draw up the necessary plans to confront the Trump decision on Jerusalem. “I want to remind Nasrallah that the Lebanese land is sovereign, and sovereignty is exclusive to the Lebanese State, and that we are not interested in any plans and confrontations except for those set by the Lebanese State,” the LF leader stressed. “The president of Lebanon is not called the ‘axis of resistance’ but Michel Aoun, and we have the government and its president, Saad Hariri, and Parliament and its speaker, Nabih Berri. For us, these constitutional institutions are the ‘axis of resistance’; there is nothing else called ‘axis of resistance’. The Lebanese people gave these institutions the exclusive exercise of sovereignty over the Lebanese territory,” Geagea firmly said.
The LF leader underlined the important role of the Lebanese Army in defending the country.
“We must not forget that there is the Lebanese Army, which has proved to have great capacity and high effectiveness, on some occasions when it was given the chance to act,” he noted. Asked about the recent adoption of the policy of dissociation and whether the government would succeed in its implementation, the Lebanese political leader said: “Yes, there is the possibility of applying the policy of dissociation because everyone knows that if they pressure Prime Minister Hariri again, he will do what he did the previous time; he will resign…because he cannot bear unbalanced policies emanating from Lebanon.”On whether he believes that there was a realistic solution to Hezbollah’s weapons, Geagea said: “I firmly believe that Hezbollah’s weapons should not be linked with large axes; they must be purely Lebanese, contrary to what many believe.”“The first step we must make as a political authority is to decide that these weapons should be placed in the hands of the Lebanese government, especially that Hezbollah and many of the parties are represented in the government, and then we reach a plan to put these weapons under the authority of the Lebanese army,” he stated. Geagea pointed out to the recent developments in Iraq, noting that as soon as the country declared the end of the war against ISIS, Moqtada al-Sadr announced the dissolution of his military wing “Saraya al-Salam” and the handing over of arms to the state. “That’s the logic. Mr. Sadr stressed that the logic of the State must prevail,” he said. Moving to the upcoming parliamentary elections, the LF leader said it was too soon to talk about electoral alliances, stressing that his party would engage in the elections under the slogan of the establishment of a sovereign effective state. “Until now, I don’t consider that there is an actual state in Lebanon, because not all strategic decisions are made within the state,” he said. The second electoral slogan for the Lebanese Forces is the issue of fighting corruption, according to Geagea. “This has been our slogan since our first participation in the government; we will continue to work towards this purpose and we will run the parliamentary elections on this basis,” he stressed.

Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 13-14/17
Muslim Leaders Urge World to Recognize E. Jerusalem as Palestine Capital
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 13/17/Islamic leaders on Wednesday urged the world to recognize occupied East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine, as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas warned the United States no longer had any role to play in the peace process. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan convened in Istanbul an emergency summit of the world's main pan-Islamic body, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), seeking a tough response to the recognition by U.S. President Donald Trump of Jerusalem as Israel's capital. With the Islamic world itself mired in division, the summit fell well short of agreeing any concrete sanction against Israel or the United States. But their final statement declared "East Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Palestine" and invited "all countries to recognize the State of Palestine and East Jerusalem as its occupied capital." They declared Trump's decision "null and void legally" and "a deliberate undermining of all peace efforts" that would give impetus to "extremism and terrorism."The status of Jerusalem, a city holy to Christians, Jews and Muslims, is perhaps the most sensitive issue in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel sees the entire city as its undivided capital, while the Palestinians want the eastern sector, which the international community regards as annexed by Israel, as the capital of their future state. Erdogan -- who sees himself a champion of the Palestinian cause -- sought to underline his point with a powerpoint map presentation, flashing a laser pointer at how Palestinian territory had shrunk since the 1948 creation of Israel. "The real proprietor of these lands is Palestine," he told the final press conference."Mr Trump wants all this to be Israel. This is the product of an evangelist and Zionist mentality," said Erdogan, the current chair of the OIC.
'No more role for U.S.'
Using unusually strong language and bitterly anti-American rhetoric, Abbas warned that there could be "no peace or stability" in the Middle East until Jerusalem is recognized as the capital of a Palestinian state. Moreover, he said that with Trump's move the United States had withdrawn itself from a traditional role as the mediator in the search for Mideast peace. "We do not accept any role of the United States in the political process from now on. Because it is completely biased towards Israel," he said. The final statement from the OIC echoed his words, saying Trump's move was "an announcement of the U.S. administration's withdrawal from its role as sponsor of peace" in the Middle East. Erdogan added that there can no longer be "any question" of the United States being a mediator. "This period is now over," he said bluntly. Successive U.S. administrations have sought unsuccessfully to broker a final peace deal since the 1990s Oslo accords. Trump, too, is working on such an offer through his son-in-law Jared Kushner.
Saudi snub?
But bridging the gaps between 57 OIC member states -- who include arch rivals Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran -- was always a tall order. Key players, like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, were unlikely to want to risk their key relationship with Washington by putting their name to anti-American measures. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Jordanian King Abdullah II and Lebanese President Michel Aoun were among the heads of state present, as well as the emirs of Qatar and Kuwait and presidents of Afghanistan and Indonesia. But there was no sign of Saudi King Salman or his powerful crown prince and son Mohammed bin Salman, who has reportedly been in close contact with Trump over the Middle East. Instead, Riyadh sent a senior foreign ministry official. "Some countries in our region are in cooperation with the United States and the Zionist regime and determining the fate of Palestine," seethed Rouhani, whose country does not recognize Israel and has dire relations with Saudi Arabia. But as the summit was being held, King Salman echoed the calls over Jerusalem in an address in Riyadh, saying it was the "right" of the Palestinians to establish "their independent state with East Jerusalem as its capital."Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for genocide and war crimes, was also in attendance and warmly greeted by Erdogan. A surprise guest was Venezuela's leftist President Nicolas Maduro whose country has no significant Muslim population but is a bitter critic of U.S. policy.  Trump's announcement last week prompted an outpouring of anger in the Muslim and Arab world, where tens of thousands of people took to the streets to denounce the Jewish state and show solidarity with the Palestinians. The decision sparked protests in Palestinian territories, with four Palestinians killed so far in clashes or Israeli air strikes in response to rocket fire from Gaza and hundreds wounded.

Abbas Warns 'No Peace or Stability' without Jerusalem as Palestinian Capital
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 13/17/Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas on Wednesday warned that there could be "no peace or stability" in the Middle East until Jerusalem is recognised as the capital of a Palestinian state. "Jerusalem is and will forever be the capital of the Palestinian state... There will be no peace, no stability without that," Abbas told an emergency meeting of Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Istanbul. He slammed the recognition by US President Donald Trump of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel as a "gift" to the "Zionist movement" as if he "were giving away an American city," adding that Washington no longer had any role to play in the Middle East peace process.

Mahmoud Abbas: Trump’s ‘crime’ over Jerusalem prevents US peace role
Reuters, Istanbul/December 13/2017/Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told Muslim leaders on Wednesday that a US decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital was a crime, which showed that Washington should no longer play a role in Middle East peace talks. Addressing an emergency meeting of Muslim leaders in Turkey, Abbas said President Donald Trump was giving Jerusalem away as if it were an American city. “Jerusalem is and always will be the capital of Palestine,” he said, adding Trump’s decision was “the greatest crime” and a violation of international law.
Wednesday’s summit was hosted by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan who has bitterly criticized the United States, a NATO ally, for its stance on Jerusalem. “I invite all countries supporting international law to recognize Jerusalem as the occupied capital of Palestine. We cannot be late any more,” Erdogan told leaders and ministers from more than 50 Muslim countries. He described Trump’s decision last week as a reward for Israeli actions including occupation, settlement construction, land seizure and “disproportionate violence and murder”. “Israel is an occupying state (and) Israel is a terror state,” he said. Ahead of the meeting, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Muslim nations should urge the world to recognize East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state within its pre-1967 borders. He said this week Turkey was not seeking sanctions in response to the US move, but wanted the summit to issue a strong rejection of the US decision.
Trump administration
The Trump administration says it remains committed to reaching peace between Israel and the Palestinians and its decision does not affect Jerusalem’s future borders or status. It says any credible future peace deal will place the Israeli capital in Jerusalem, and ditching old policies is needed to revive a peace process frozen since 2014. Abbas told the leaders in Istanbul that Washington could no longer be an honest broker. “It will be unacceptable for it (the United States) to have a role in the political process any longer since it is biased in favour of Israel,” he said. “This is our position and we hope you support us in this.”Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has applauded Trump’s declaration and said Washington had an irreplaceable part to play in the region. “There is no substitute to the role that the United States plays in leading the peace process,” he said at a Hanukkah holiday candle lighting ceremony on Tuesday.

OIC Summit Stresses Rejection of US Decision on Jerusalem
Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/17/Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addressed Muslim leaders on Wednesday stressing that a US decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital was a crime which showed that Washington can no longer be an honest broker in Middle East peace talks. During an emergency meeting of Muslim leaders in Turkey, Abbas said President Donald Trump was giving Jerusalem away as if it were an American city. “Jerusalem is and always will be the capital of Palestine,” he said, adding Trump’s decision was “the greatest crime” and a flagrant violation of international law. Wednesday’s summit was hosted by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan who has piercingly slammed the United States for its stance on Jerusalem. “I invite all countries supporting international law to recognize Jerusalem as the occupied capital of Palestine. We cannot be late any more,” Erdogan told leaders and ministers from more than 50 Muslim countries. He described Trump’s decision last week as a reward for Israeli actions including occupation, settlement construction, land seizure and “disproportionate violence and murder”. “Israel is an occupying state (and) Israel is a terror state,” he said. Jerusalem, cherished by Muslims, Jews, and Christians alike, is home to Islam’s third holiest site and has been at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for decades. Israel captured Arab East Jerusalem in 1967 and later annexed it in an action not recognized internationally. Ahead of the meeting, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Muslim nations should urge the world to recognize East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state within its pre-1967 borders. He said this week Turkey was not seeking sanctions in response to the US move, but wanted the summit to issue a strong rejection of the US decision.
Trump's announcement last week prompted an outpouring of anger in the Muslim and Arab world, where tens of thousands of people took to the streets to denounce the Jewish state and show solidarity with the Palestinians. The decision sparked protests in Palestinian territories, with four Palestinians killed so far in clashes or Israeli air strikes in response to rocket fire from Gaza and hundreds wounded.
US ‘BIAS’
The Trump administration says it remains committed to reaching a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its decision does not affect Jerusalem’s future borders or status. It says any credible future peace deal will place the Israeli capital in Jerusalem, and ditching old policies is needed to revive a peace process frozen since 2014. Abbas told the leaders in Istanbul that Washington should no longer play a role in the peace talks. “It will be unacceptable for it (the United States) to have a role in the political process any longer since it is biased in favor of Israel,” he said. “This is our position and we hope you support us in this.” King Abdullah of Jordan told the Istanbul summit that he rejected any attempt to change the status quo of Jerusalem and its holy sites. The summit was also attended by leaders including Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani and Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir. Rouhani tweeted that Trump’s decision showed the United States had no respect for Palestinian rights and could never be an honest mediator.

Islamic Summit: Trump’s decision on Jerusalem nourishes terrorism
Al Arabiya/December 13/2017/The final communiqué of the Islamic Summit in Istanbul, on Wednesday, called on the world to recognize the state of Palestine with East Jerusalem as its capital, pointing out that the United States should withdraw from the peace process. The leaders of the participating Islamic countries also considered US President Donald Trump's decision on Jerusalem to be "irresponsible, null and void", suggesting that it fuels "extremism and terrorism." Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas described Trump's promise to Israel regarding Jerusalem as a second Balfour Declaration.
He added at the opening of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation’s summit (OIC), that announcing "Jerusalem as the capital of Israel requires decisions to protect the city's identity," adding that "the whole world stood with us against Trump’s decision.""We reject the unilateral American decisions on Jerusalem," he said. "We will not accept an American role in the peace process after today," adding that Washington has bypassed the red lines with regard to the status of Jerusalem. Abbas added: "The state of Palestine cannot be established without East Jerusalem as its capital ... We will not abide by the previous understandings unless Washington retracts its recent declarations." Abbas called for a Security Council resolution to annul Trump’s resolution on Jerusalem. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that US President Donald Trump's decision on Jerusalem comes as "a reward to Israel for its terrorist actions." Erdogan called on the world to reject the US decision, saying that it will have serious repercussions. Earlier, Turkish Foreign Minister Mouloud Zhaoshoglu said at a meeting of foreign ministers of OIC that all other countries must recognize the Palestinian state and fight to achieve this goal. "We must encourage other countries to recognize a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital," he said.
Collective decision
Earlier, Turkey invited leaders of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), which includes more than 50 Muslim countries, to meet in Istanbul on Wednesday to formulate a joint response to US President Donald Trump's decision recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. The OIC summit summit is aimed at adopting a unified Islamic stand. The organization described Trump’s announcement as an illegal decision and a dangerous escalation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the current chairman of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, also strongly criticized the US move and said the leaders would send a strong message. A number of Arab and Islamic leaders arrived in Istanbul on Tuesday to attend the summit.

U.S.-Led Airstrikes Kill 23 Civilians in Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 13/17/Airstrikes by a U.S.-led coalition killed 23 civilians Wednesday in a village held by the Islamic State group in Syria's eastern Deir Ezzor province, a monitor said. "At least 23 civilians, among them eight children and six women, were killed Wednesday before dawn by air strikes carried out by the U.S.-led coalition, targeting a village controlled by IS on the eastern banks of the Euphrates river," the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Israel Intel Minister Wants Saudi Crown Prince to Visit
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 13/17/Israeli Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz wants Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to visit, his spokesman said Wednesday, in what would be a historic trip involving two nations with no official diplomatic ties. Israeli leaders have repeatedly spoken of improving ties with the Arab world and hinted at behind-the-scenes cooperation, particularly involving their efforts to limit their common enemy Iran. Katz issued the call during an interview with Elaph, a news website run by a Saudi businessman, his spokesman Arye Shalicar said. The call was not included in the final version of the interview published online. Shalicar could not comment on why, but said Katz had indeed made the comments. "He said that he asks the king to invite (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu officially to Riyadh, and he asks MBS, Mohammed bin Salman, the son, to come and visit Israel," Shalicar said of Katz, who is also transportation minister. Katz made the call because "he wants regional peace -- that's part of his three-layered program," his spokesman said, referring to security and economic cooperation leading to eventual peace. He referred to Saudi Arabia as a leader in the Arab world. Netanyahu has spoken repeatedly and with pride about growing rapprochement with "moderate Arab states" without naming them, although he is assumed to be referring to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies. In November, Israeli military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot said in an interview with the same website Katz spoke to that his country was prepared to cooperate with Saudi Arabia to face Iran's plans "to control the Middle East."Arab countries have not made similar statements publicly and continue to criticize Israel over its 50-year occupation of Palestinian territory. U.S. President Donald Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital last week has drawn sharp criticism from Saudi Arabia. King Salman said Wednesday that Palestinians have the right to Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem as their capital. Only two Arab countries -- Jordan and Egypt -- have peace treaties with Israel.

Israel hits Hamas in Gaza after rocket fire at Israeli city
The Associated Press, Jerusalem/December 13/2017/The Israeli military says it has carried out airstrikes in Gaza is response to rocket fire toward southern Israel. The military says it struck a Hamas military compound in southern Gaza early on Wednesday. No casualties were reported.
The strike followed a rocket fired late Tuesday toward Israel’s southern coastal city of Ashkelon. It was intercepted by the anti-missile Iron Dome defense system. Israel typically responds to each Gaza attack and holds Hamas responsible, regardless of which group fired. The area has been largely calm since the 2015 Israel-Hamas war. Palestinian militants have fired several rockets at Israel in recent days, sparking an uptick in Israeli retaliation. Two Hamas militants and two demonstrators were killed over the weekend. The exchanges followed President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
US wary of Putin’s declaration of military victory in Syria
The United States is voicing skepticism about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a major withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria and is arguing that his declaration of victory against ISIS was premature. Putin, during a surprise visit on Monday to Russia’s Hmeymim air base in Syria, declared that the work of Russian forces was largely done in backing the Syrian government against militants in the country’s war following the defeat of “the most battle-hardened group of international terrorists.”Still, US officials are challenging the Russian and Syrian portrayal of Syria as a country poised for peace once the final enclaves of the ISIS militant group, known as ISIS, are recaptured. Syrian government forces, US officials said, are too few, too poor and too weak to secure the country. ISIS, and other militants in Syria, have ample opportunity to regroup, especially if the political grievances that drove the conflict remain unresolved, the officials said. “We think the Russian declarations of ISIS’ defeat are premature,” a White House National Security Council spokeswoman said. “We have repeatedly seen in recent history that a premature declaration of victory was followed by a failure to consolidate military gains, stabilize the situation, and create the conditions that prevent terrorists from reemerging”.
Moscow’s drawdowns
The US military in Syria, which unlike the Russians are operating there without the blessing of Damascus, has long been skeptical of Moscow’s announced drawdowns. Marine Major Adrian Rankine-Galloway, a Pentagon spokesman, said the United States had not observed any significant withdrawal since Putin’s announcement. Although he did not predict future moves, he said: “There have been no meaningful reductions in combat troops following Russia’s previous announcements planned departures from Syria.”The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said Moscow’s past announcements of pullouts led to a recalibration of Russian forces. “Russia has previously used claims of partial withdrawals in order to rotate out select units for refit-and-repair, remove redundant capabilities, and reinsert alternative weapons systems better suited for the next phase of pro-regime operations,” it wrote in a research note on Tuesday.
Victor’s peace?
The US military still has around 2,000 troops in Syria and has announced that any withdrawal will be conditions-based, arguing a longer-term presence of American forces would be needed to ensure ISIS’s lasting defeat. Russia’s announcement, however, suggested a different image of Syria in which foreign forces were becoming unnecessary. After turning the tide of the conflict in Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s favor, Putin wants to help broker a peace deal. A senior Trump administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the United States believed Assad would fail if he attempts to impose “victor’s peace.” The odds of Syria breaking into a civil war again would be high without meaningful political reconciliation, the official said. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Tuesday stressed the importance of a roadmap for peace, including elections that would allow voting by Syrians overseas who fled to the conflict. “And it is our belief that through that process, the Assad regime will no longer be part of that leadership,” Tillerson said.

Syrian Opposition Insists on Direct Negotiations with Regime
Beirut- Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/17
The Syrian opposition responded to regime's attempts to fail the Geneva talks by insisting on having direct negotiations with the regime delegation to end the crisis. However, regime delegation shut the door on any possibility especially after they left the meeting with UN envoy on Syria Staffan de Mistura without delivering any statement. On Tuesday, de Mistura met separately with delegations of the regime and the unified opposition at the ongoing Syria peace talks in Geneva. The opposition issued a statement on Tuesday insisting on direct negotiations and reiterating that the dialogue with the regime stems from ending the humanitarian catastrophe and ensuring a safe and neutral environment. The opposition's delegation reiterated that all negotiations are based on the principles of consensus, adding: "we strive to give the upper hand to the people and to bring them back the authority throughout the full implementation of UNSCR 2254. We shall do whatever it takes to accomplish that." The opposition added that the remaining week of Geneva round is a serious opportunity to start direct negotiations, and "we call on the regime to engage seriously." After the meeting with UN Envoy, the opposition spokesman Yahya Aridi told reporters that Geneva is the place for discussing any political matter and any other contribution should be pouring into the Geneva talks, adding: "the regime is not interested in getting involved in the political process, our priority is making Syria a safe place to come home to."Syrian regime's delegation led by Bashar al-Jaafari held a second round of meetings with UN envoy on Syria Staffan de Mistura at UN's headquarters in Geneva for the eighth round of talks between the government and the unified opposition delegations. Opposition delegation spokesperson Ahmed Ramadan told Anadolu Agency that the regime resorts to rejecting suggestions and setting preconditions. "They rejected direct talks and this is a clear message to the UN that they do not want serious negotiations," said Ramadan, adding that the regime wants to maintain bilateral talks through the UN and not direct ones.
Reports came out on Monday claiming that de Mistura told the opposition delegation that they need to be realistic and that the opposition "had lost international support". The opposition denied those rumors confirming that they are inaccurate. Legal adviser at the coalition Hisham Mrowwe indicated that the reports are inaccurate and de Mistura was discussing the importance of Geneva talks, he added the opposition's commitment to UN Resolution. Speaking to Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, Mrowwe stated that regime wants to give an impression that Geneva talks are not successful.
He confirmed that the opposition is working on adhering to the Geneva conference, under an international umbrella, to prevent the negotiations from derailing into other tracks rejected by the opposition, and on getting the regime to direct negotiations which they reject. Mrowwe stressed that adherence to the Geneva process "stems from the fact that it is an international reference" which will shut the door on any attempt to transfer the negotiations to another path that does not enjoy international support. He considered that the rejection of direct negotiations by the regime "is aimed at aborting and obstructing the negotiations."

Iran: Revolutionary Guard Patrols to Stifle Social Unrest, Interior Ministry Objects
Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/17/Revolutionary Guard leader Major General Mohammad Yazdi announced on Monday that special taskforces will be formed to counter the social shockwave witnessed in Tehran. The move by the ultra-conservatives was immediately slammed by the Iranian interior ministry as it rushed to deny ever requesting any help for upholding public security. Soon after Yazdi announced resorting to special units to fight off and neutralize ‘outcasts,’ Interior Ministry Spokesman Salman Samani denied claims by the Tehran-based Yazdi on authorities seeking Revolutionary Guard help. The Interior Ministry made no requests to the Guard concerning public security, said Samani. Revolutionary Guard Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari chose Yazdi to replace Muhammad Rasulullah base commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Kazemini. The Muhammad Rasulullah base is responsible for coordinating between Revolutionary Guard forces and the Basij to protect the capital Tehran in crisis situations. Baisj forces are a paramilitary militia comprising civilian volunteers and were a part of an independent organization until 1981, when it was officially incorporated into the Revolutionary Guard organization structure by the Iranian Parliament. Widening rifts between the Guard and the Iranian Interior Ministry has become the spotlight of an emerging social crisis. The leader of the Revolutionary Guard, in a speech at a meeting of the Tehran Municipal Council, attributed his forces' decision to launch special patrols in Iranian cities to 23 social threats spotted on the Guard and the Basij’s radar. Jafari spoke about "social turmoil" in the Iranian capital requiring direct intervention by his conservative forces. The last presidential election, which took place in May, witnessed a major debate on social crises between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his opponents. Conservative candidate Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf tried to use the social crisis, including rampant unemployment and poverty, to rally the public against Rouhani, but the latter made promises to boost social freedoms. In the presidential elections, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, issued several warnings to Iranian election candidates not to trigger issues that may rock the country’s social fabric. On the other hand, Yazdi still said that drug addiction "reached its peak" in Tehran, in a move to justify the launch of special inspection patrols in there. Allegedly, Revolutionary Guard patrols are meant to crackdown on drug traffickers.

US National Security Advisor: Qatar main sponsor of extremist ideologies
Al Arabiya/December 13/2017/US national security adviser HR McMaster accused Turkey and Qatar of funding extremist ideologies during a panel held at a think tank in Washington on December 12, 2017. McMaster condemned Qatar and Turkey for taking on a “new role” as the prime sponsors and sources of funding for extremist Islamist ideology that targets Western interests, according to The National. “Radical Islamist ideology is obviously a grave threat to all civilized people,” McMaster said. He added that this threat has been identified “myopically... and we didn’t pay enough attention how it’s is being advanced through charities, Madrassas and other social organizations.”In addition, McMaster talked up the threat the US perceives from political Islam, and the Muslim Brotherhood. He presented both Qatar and Turkey as major supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, and suggested this was the reason Turkey’s ties with the West have worsened in recent years.In a statement, the Turkish Foreign Ministry described McMaster’s accusations as “baseless and unacceptable claims.”

Multiple earthquakes hit southeastern Iran
Reuters, Beirut/December 13/2017/Iran's southeastern province of Kerman was hit by multiple strong quakes on Tuesday and Wednesday, injuring at least 18 people and damaging some 20 houses, state media reported. The first quake of magnitude 5.9 struck on Tuesday morning 35 miles (56 km) north of Kerman, a city with a population of more than 820,000. The tremor, initially reported as a magnitude 6.2 before it was revised downward, was followed by dozens of smaller aftershocks. During the night, early on Wednesday, a stronger quake of magnitude 6.0 struck the same area. It was more shallow - only 6.2 miles (10 km) deep, which would have amplified the shaking. The latest quake was centered 40 miles (64 km) north of Kerman, and struck just after 1 a.m., the USGS said. It was not immediately known if the second quake had caused any damage, injuries or fatalities as it struck during the night.
State media reported earlier that no deaths had been caused by the first earthquake, which hit in late morning on Tuesday, but said that at least 18 people had been injured. Pictures posted on state media showed groups of people standing in streets in the quake zone, fearing the collapse of buildings. The 20 damaged buildings were mostly older structures, state media reported. The pictures showed collapsed mud brick walls. On Monday, another quake, which Iranian state media reported at 6.0 and the USGS reported at 5.4, hit western Iran, in the same region where a magnitude 7.3 earthquake killed at least 530 people last month. There have been no reports of deaths or injuries from Monday's quake. Hardline rivals of President Hassan Rouhani have criticized the government's response to last month's quake as too slow and inadequate.

US air strike destroys vehicle bomb outside Mogadishu
AFP, Mogadishu/December 13/2017/US forces in Somalia conducted an air strike Tuesday against a bomb-laden vehicle outside Mogadishu that was deemed an “imminent threat” to the capital, officials said. The strike occurred about 65 kilometers southwest of Mogadishu and comes after as many as 512 people were killed in a massive truck bombing in October. “In coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, US forces conducted an air strike against an al-Shabaab vehicle-borne improvised explosive device in the early morning hours of December 12,” the US military’s Africa Command said in a statement. “This strike supports our partner forces by removing an imminent threat to the people of Mogadishu.”Al-Shabab has been fighting to overthrow successive internationally backed governments in Mogadishu since 2007 and frequently deploys car and truck bombs against military, government and civilian targets. The devastating October blast leveled buildings in the capital’s busy Kilometer 5 neighborhood. Since then the United States -- which supports Somalia’s fledgling army as well as carrying out its own operations against al-Shabab and a separate self-proclaimed ISIS group in the north of the country -- has increased the frequency of air strikes targeting militant leaders.

Kim Vows to 'Win Victory In the Showdown' with US
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 13/17/North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un vowed to "win victory in the showdown" against the US with his rapidly advancing nuclear arsenal, state media said Wednesday, after the country's latest missile test heightened global tensions. The nuclear-armed North has rattled the international community with a flurry of nuclear blasts and missile launches, most recently on November 29 when it test-fired its longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), capable of reaching all major US cities. Kim told workers behind the latest test that his country would "victoriously advance and leap as the strongest nuclear power and military power in the world" at a conference on Tuesday, according to state news agency KCNA. "The... national defence industry will continue to develop and we will win victory in the showdown with the imperialists and the US," he was indirectly quoted as saying. The country's nuclear force had been completed in a "death-defying struggle" and despite a high cost, he added. Kim's comments come as global powers scramble for a response to the crisis, with the US backing stringent economic and diplomatic sanctions on Kim's regime to halt its nuclear drive. But the North has continued to lob missiles, posing a major challenge to US President Donald Trump. Fears of a catastrophic conflict with the nuclear-armed regime have spiked as the leaders have taunted each other, with Trump dubbing his rival "Little Rocket Man".Tension flared anew in the flashpoint peninsula after the November 29 launch of the Hwasong-15 ICBM, which the North claimed could deliver a "super-large heavy warhead" anywhere on the US mainland. Many analysts suggest that the rocket is capable of reaching the US mainland but voice scepticism that Pyongyang has mastered the advanced technology needed to allow the rocket to survive re-entry to the Earth's atmosphere. Last month's launch was the first test of any kind since September 15, and quashed hopes that the North may have held back in order to open the door to a negotiated solution to the nuclear standoff.
But US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said for the first time that Washington was willing to talk to Pyongyang "without preconditions". The US has long insisted that the North should take concrete steps towards disarming before any negotiations, which should lead to complete, irreversible and verifiable denuclearisation. "It's not realistic to say we're only going to talk if you come to the table ready to give up your programme," Tillerson told a meeting of the Atlantic Council policy forum. "They have too much invested in it." But he also warned that the US military stands ready to act if necessary. The latest military standoff prompted concerns of another full-scale conflict in the region after the 1950-53 Korean War that left much of the peninsula in ruins. Even if a second war remained conventional, tens of thousands of South Koreans -- as well as many of the 28,500 US troops stationed in the country -- are expected to be killed just in the first days of fighting, analysts say.

Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 13-14/17
What will Happen if Russia Left Syria?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/December 13/2017
Assuming that Russia's statement about its intention to withdraw most of its troops from Syria is true, such a decision will most likely mix the deck all over again for this country, which appears to be on its way out of the war. Ironically, Russia played a negative role that enabled both the Assad regime and Iran to take control, having previously failed to defeat the revolutionary forces and terrorist groups. Now, Moscow has a "positive" role in balancing the forces, precisely in limiting Iran's activity and its militias on the ground. According to the Russian news agency, President Vladimir Putin was clear when he said: "I have taken a decision: a significant part of the Russian troop contingent located in Syria is returning home to Russia." Whether Russia gets out of Syria or reduces the number of its troops, its influence will diminish. Here, the more likely possibility is that Russia's decision will be in Iran's favor.
Al-Khamenei regime seeks near-total control of Syria, with the exception of Kurdish or neighboring Turkey areas. Its influence can be noticed through its militia centers across the Syrian borders with Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, and of course in Damascus.
It is not clear what Russia's motives are for announcing this partial withdrawal. Is it the result of disagreements with Iran over control and management of the situation on the ground, or is it part of the truce brokered with the United States, which also has a limited presence in Syria?
It is normal for Assad's allies to disagree on the post-war era. Iran wants to dominate the area in order to to pressure and defy the US.
Russia, however, wants to establish a balanced situation with the United States in a number of areas of conflict around the world. Both motives may coincide but can only be temporarily achieved, as was the case during the war. Both countries entered Syria under the pretenses of fighting terrorism, but the battles which their forces fought were directed at the Syrian armed opposition. Only US-led coalition focused on fighting ISIS. Moscow has no interest in protecting and supporting Iranian forces, which are made up of tens of thousands of multi-national militants recruited by Tehran from different countries.
How will Iran return Russia's military favor? Technically, it is offering nothing. Reduction of Moscow's military presence will weaken the Syrian regime and Iranian militias. Is the Kremlin willing to abandon its Syrian ally and sacrifice everything it did?
All of this will depend on a regional and US plan, if any, against Iran's influence in Syria itself.
If there is any sense of danger from Iran's expansion and a desire to confront it, Syria is the perfect trap for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran's militias will not be able to settle in a hostile environment, especially if peace negotiations fail. As long as Assad, and Iran, are hampering any solution that brings the regime together with the opposition, negotiations will not succeed. The partial withdrawal of Russian troops and failure of the recent negotiations in Geneva, could be developed into two major elements that can pressure Assad regime and Iran to reconsider and make realistic concessions.

Duterte considers autonomy for restive Muslim province
Abdulla Almadani/Al Arabiya/December 13/2017
Since the time of former dictator President Ferdinand Marcos to the term of the immediate predecessor of the present president Benigno Aquino III, there has been a formal desire in the Philippines to find a peaceful solution of the Muslim insurgency in southern region of the country.
For more than a year now, a strong president by the name of Rodrigo Duterte sits in the Malacanian presidential palace in Manila, who claims his ancestors were Muslims from the province of Mindanao. This president may be the only one among his predecessors to have publicly admitted (in late November) that the Muslims of the Philippines have faced “historical injustice”.
The issue of autonomy
He also promised to take corrective actions and revive the peace process, to control recent rise in violent incidents taking place in Marawi city — the most important Muslim city in the province of Mindanao. It was the scene of fierce fighting between the army and police forces on the one hand and armed Muslim militants on the other, which resulted in about 1,100 deaths and massive destruction of property and infrastructure. He vowed to prevent ISIS-affiliated militias from establishing a stronghold in the Philippines after the terror group lost its stronghold in the Middle East. Philippine President publicly admitted in late November that the Muslims of the Philippines have faced “historical injustice” President Duterte has also promised to convene a special session of the Philippine Congress to pass a law on peace in the south of the country in the presence of the concerned parties. The Philippine President reiterated the need for ensuring the interests of the Republic, which was interpreted by observers that any solution should fall within the ambit of the existing state structure.
In other words, Manila could grant autonomy to the country’s Muslims without giving them the right to secede. Such an unprecedented promise by a Philippine leader compels us to look into the demands for succession in southern Philippine territories, to identify the developments and to review factors that prevented achieving the desired peace.
The historical context
The Moro National Liberation Movement has been engaged in an armed conflict with the Manila government since 1972 to establish a separate state in southern Philippines for the Muslims, under the pretext that the Catholic Christian majority of the country discriminated against them.
They sometimes make a historical argument by claiming that this part of the Philippines was in previous centuries an independent state and was attached to the current Republic of the Philippines by force and against the will of its people.
Despite many attempts at mediation made at different times by various Muslim countries such as Saudi Arabia, Libya and Indonesia or by regional coalitions such as the ASEAN and OIC, and despite the numerous agreements signed between the rebels and the Manila government for either a ceasefire or to execute a program for the autonomy of the south within the Philippine state (such as the Tripoli-West Agreement of 1986, the 1987 Jeddah Agreement, and the 1995 Jakarta Agreement), the situation did not stabilize and armed confrontation between the rebels and the Philippine military forces did not stop. Plans for autonomy and for developing the region were stalled.
Factors behind past failures
We can attribute the failure here to several factors. First: disagreement over the nature of autonomy and its geographical borders, the lot of millions of Christians in the South, who live with Muslims. Second: lack of trust between the warring parties and accusations against each other of bad intentions.
Third, pressure on the central authority in Manila by the Christian majority and the army of succumbing to the demands of the rebels and the supposed ‘betrayal’ of the sacrifice of several civilians and military, killed in the conflict over the years. There is evidence to suggest that the Philippine Congress is apprehensive about legalizing the implementation of a peace agreement reached in 2014. Fourth: the rebels themselves have had differences over the boundaries demarcated in the agreement and on various aspects of the solution, as is generally the case with armed movements when peace parleys take place. Most conditions are accepted by moderates and rejected by extremists. The best evidence for this is what happened in 1996; when Manila signed a good agreement with the leader of the Moro National Liberation Movement. Professor Nur Misuari and some of his companions rejected it and split from the main group, forming the Moro Islamic Liberation Front led by Hashim Salamat (who died in 2003). He was succeeded by the current leader of the organization, Haj Murad Ibrahim. They have continued their armed struggle until their full demands of establishing of an independent entity are met. Ironically, what the “Islamic Moro” rebels had rejected years ago they accept now, which reminds us of what happened with the Palestinians. Fifth, the emergence of the Abu Sayyaf movement and its claim of defending the Philippines Muslims’ rights and sabotaging the fragile peace in some areas; by blackmailing, threatening and kidnapping foreigners complicated the insurgency issue. Leaders of this movement recently pledges the allegiance of their leader to the terrorist group ISIS and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi welcomed this declaration and considered it as the beginning of establishing the Islamic State in Southeast Asia.
Lastly, the adverse impact of foreign interventions further exacerbated the crisis. Libya, for example, had mediated between the government of the former President Marcos and the Muslim rebels, but at the same time provided support to the leaders of the Abu Sayyaf (who is called ‘Gaddafi Janglani’) — thus enabling this extremist group to emerge, sabotage and hinder the peace efforts.

Fundamentalism and terrorism: Is it a British awakening?
Abdullah bin Bijad Al-Otaibii/Al Arabiya/December 13/2017
Two important statements were issued by British ministers on Thursday. The first one was by Secretary of State for Defense Gavin Williamson who spoke about the British people who joined ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Williamson spoke in support of killing them and said: “a dead terrorist can’t cause any harm to Britain.”The second one was by Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Boris Johnson as he said that the government will examine the Brotherhood’s international links, charity work and visa applications more, adding that: “some affiliates of the Muslim Brotherhood are willing to turn a blind eye to terrorism.”
The significance of these two statements is that for the first time in Britain, two ministers have made strong statements pertaining to confronting terrorism in such a new decisive tone. The statement of the secretary of defense towards ISIS members reflects a new stance and the foreign minister’s statement expresses a possible change in Britain’s stance towards the Brotherhood.
Britain is the oldest western country to have built relations with the Brotherhood as it provided generous financial support to the group when it was first established. It gave £500 to Hassan al-Banna, the founder of the group and its first guide. Britain has not cut ties with it ever since. These ties have rather developed to include all political Islam groups and all religiously violent groups. These parties found a safe haven in Britain and they found support and protection under all circumstances and from all countries. They planned from there, collected donations, held meetings, issued incitement and murder fatwas, appeared on media outlets, established websites and filled social media platforms with fundamentalist, extremist and terrorist content. The battle against terrorism is a battle of existence for our Arab countries – even if the British secretary of defense does not view it as so
A fixed source
For decades, Britain remained a fixed source, haven and refuge to all fundamentalist, terrorist and extremist groups and organizations whose members were easily granted visit visas. It was even easier for them to get the right to asylum. Once settled there, they began spreading extremism and terrorism while enjoying full protection. The Brotherhood, Hizb ut-Tahrir, Sururism and other Sunni or Shiite extremist symbols and organizations from the Arab and Islamic world lived in Britain – and some of them continue to live there – and assumed these same roles towards achieving the same purposes, as if nothing happened particularly following the major damage which extremism has caused in Britain. All what was done after the fire of terrorism reached Britain was getting rid of some the direct symbols of terrorism. They did not address the symbols of extremism and its institutions. This is very distant from the real role assumed by the anti-terror quartet (which has boycotted Qatar) to fight the roots of terrorism and efficiently eliminate it. What’s suspicious about this developing British stance towards extremism and terrorism is that the foreign minister has barely finished making that statement and then visited Tehran, the foremost state sponsor of terrorism, fundamentalism and sectarianism in the world.
Eliminating ISIS
Two days ago, the Iranian state celebrated eliminating ISIS. Unfortunately, it’s a temporary celebration as the government’s battle with Shiite terrorism is more dangerous than the battle against ISIS. The state does not look capable of launching this war amid the current givens.
Meanwhile, the developments of the Yemeni affair imply there is a strong orientation to eliminate the Houthi militia following the series of murder and abuse it committed against the General People’s Congress members after assassinating former President Ali Abdullah Saleh. In terms of the battle against ISIS in Syria in Iraq, we can see that the presence of British supporters of ISIS is stronger than Britain’s presence in fighting the organization. As for Yemen, Britain has not voiced a serious stance in supporting legitimacy and the coalition in support of legitimacy. It did not condemn the activity of the Houthis and of Iran’s militias in Yemen and other countries as strong as it should have. The battle against terrorism is a battle of existence for our Arab countries – even if the British secretary of defense does not view it as so.

Cinema makes a comeback in Saudi Arabia
Mamdouh AlMuhaini/Al Arabiya/December 13/2017
The artists are Saudis, so are musicians and the public; nevertheless the concert is held outside Saudi Arabia. The same thing applies to cinema. Saudi films are broadcast in Cannes and Berlin but are nowhere to be found in Riyadh and Dammam. This puzzling scene has been prevalent for years. It ended after the government restored things to its nature state. What we are witnessing is the return of a happy and artistic society. This paradoxes didn’t define Saudi society, which some claim to be against arts and events. This lie is constantly perpetuated to put Saudi society in a mould and isolate it as if does not appreciate creativity, has no aesthetic sensitivity and has parted ways with its folklore heritage. All these are naive perceptions especially if we take into account the public turnout to these events outside Saudi Arabia and even within Saudi Arabia. If this audience is an enemy of artistic expression then why do they attend concerts and spend money on them? Why are the tickets for Mohammed Abdou and Yanni concerts so quickly sold out? The truth is that art did not disappear from Saudi Arabia, even though it did not find the appropriate atmosphere to shine because of prohibitions and taboos. Once these curbs disappeared, the artistic expression took a new dimension, transforming art into an integrated artistic and economic industry rather than an amateur activity. Rise of civilized societies is linked to the rise of art and it is rare to see ignorant societies producing the most brilliant works of art or literature
Religious justification
The absence of art was justified on religious grounds. However, it was only a trick used by extremists who put moralities in direct conflict with art even though it is regarded as a pillar of any civilized life. It is true that the rise of civilized societies is linked to the rise of art and it is rare to see ignorant societies producing the most brilliant works of art or literature. We see how ignorant minds consider creative artists as wicked whereas in fact they contribute toward shaping the national identity of people by enriching the aesthetic imagination. This is why Egyptians celebrate Umm Kulthum, the Lebanese cherish Fairuz and the Saudis love Muhammad Abdou. However, there is a reason why a war has been waged on art as art is inherently liberal and hostile to extremist ideologies, and all attempts to convert it to serve political agendas have failed. When did you last hear of Islamic art or literature? All of these attempts to convert art were born dead and the corpses does not come back to life.
The cinema example
Just recently, the decision to reopen movie theaters in Saudi Arabia was taken after they were closed for decades. Anyone who has lived in Saudi Arabia even for a limited period of time knows that there is a cinema culture that has grown rapidly in the last decade. It has not only produced a large audience that loves cinema and the new Hollywood production studios, but also art movement. There have been stars, directors, carnivals, but no movie theaters; which has been corrected by this important decision. The story of art in Saudi society is like any other human society. It has a diverse and deep rooted artistic heritage and folklore where arts and dances vary across Saudi Arabia. Art is a part of the social identity of any society and people love their favorite artists because over the ages they come to represent their collective conscience in a way that others do not. The war on art has been a losing battle because art has a natural and inherent place in the nature and in societies. Laws, no matter how harsh, cannot simply abolish and eliminate art. Art will always return to the front. The decision to reopen cinemas is not isolated one but comes in the context of the historical transformation taking place in Saudi Arabia, which has taken shape over a short period of time. We could not imagine these things even a few months ago.

Locked up in the Islamic Republic of Iran
Denis MacEoin/Gatestone Institute/December 13/17
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11422/iran-prisoners
What is genuinely troubling was the way in which Robert Levinson's fate has been kept largely secret. The Iranian authorities have never revealed who captured him, who currently holds him, what charges have been laid against him, or even if he is still alive. And no effort has been made to negotiate his release, set a prison term, or work by the rules of international intelligence or diplomacy.
An Iranian revolutionary court charged Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, without the slightest evidence, of "plotting to topple the Iranian regime". This was done in a trial without a defence lawyer, without any details of her "offence", and ended in a sentence to five years in prison.
All of you will be familiar with articles on individuals who have been imprisoned, tortured, or even executed in several Muslim countries. Many such individuals are Iranians, imprisoned unjustly for their beliefs or actions that would be considered perfectly innocent or even praiseworthy in the West. Since the revolution of 1979, Iran has been not only the world's leading sponsor of terrorism, but also one of the world's most consistent human rights abusers. In Amnesty International's most recent (2016-2017) report on rights issues in the country, it listed abuses under numerous headings:
Freedom of expression, association and assembly
Torture and other ill-treatment
Unfair trials
Freedom of religion and belief
Discrimination – ethnic minorities
Women's rights
Death penalty
Iran has the sixth highest number of prisoners in the world, although it comes only nineteenth in the size of its population. In 2011, there were 250,000 prisoners overall, a figure that dropped by 2014 to 225,624 -- still a very high figure. Even North Korea -- which has a vast range of political prison camps, forced labour camps, and other facilities, albeit with a small overall population -- has fewer: the U.S. State Department human rights report for 2016 says that estimates of the prison population total range between 80,000 and 120,000.
Iran is also notorious for the number of executions it carries out, often for drug-related crimes, but also on religious and political charges. In an article by Iran expert Majid Rafizadeh, president of the International American Council (IAC), Iran has overtaken China as the world's worst offender in extreme use of execution as a punishment, often for offences that would not even carry penalties in any Western country, including the United States:
Since January 2016, Iran has executed at least 230 people, that is at least one person a day on average. The number of executions has recently increased and Iran ranks first in the world, followed by China, when it comes to executions per capita. Iran executed approximately 1000 people in 2015.
In the Amnesty International report on Iran, there appears one paragraph of considerable concern for foreign citizens and Iranians with dual nationality, notably US and British citizenship:
Several foreign nationals and Iranians with dual nationality were detained in Tehran's Evin Prison with little or no access to their families, lawyers and consular officials. These prisoners were sentenced to long prison terms on vague charges such as "collaborating with a hostile government" after grossly unfair trials before Revolutionary Courts. The authorities accused the prisoners of being involved in a foreign-orchestrated "infiltration project" pursuing the "soft overthrow" of Iran. In reality, the convictions appeared to stem from their peaceful exercise of the rights to freedom of expression and association.
People such as these are not more innocent than the great numbers of men and women who have been and remain in Iran's dungeons or raised to the regime's gallows in private and in public. But their cases testify to the frustration and often powerlessness of the various governments to whom they call for help.
The precarious situation for foreign and dual nationality individuals in Iran may grow even riskier given that the US Congress voted on October 26 for the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran under the Iran Ballistic Missiles and International Sanctions Enforcement Act. The Act "calls on the U.S. president to report to Congress on the Iranian and international supply chain for Iran's ballistic missile program and to impose sanctions on Iranian government or foreign entities that support it." If it becomes law, it is expected that US allies will follow suit. Moreover, should President Trump succeed in decertifying the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA), as he intends to do and should do, the Iranian regime will become jittery, setting up yet further risks for internal dissidents and foreigners in the Republic.
In July this year, the White House threatened consequences if Iran did not release US citizens whom it holds prisoner or uses as hostages:
The White House is demanding the release of all Americans currently being held in Iran and says President Donald Trump is "prepared to impose new and serious" consequences on the country if they are not released and returned.
A statement released by the White House Friday [July 21] said the Trump administration is "redoubling" its efforts to bring home Americans "unjustly detained" abroad.
The list of those unjustly detained by Iran and denied consular or other access is fairly long. One of the longest in captivity is American Robert Levinson (now aged 69 if he is still alive), originally a 28-year veteran of the Drug Enforcement Administration and the FBI. He was captured on March 9, 2007 on Kish Island, an Iranian free-trade zone in the Persian Gulf. Some years later, it was revealed that he had been working in a private capacity for the CIA. He could legitimately have been arrested as an enemy spy. Intelligence agencies are well aware that there is always a risk of capture or death for operatives in the field, so Levinson's apprehension by an unnamed Iranian government security organization may be put down to the hazards of such work. Levinson's mission had been unorthodox and he had never carried out work related to Iran.
Just another spy story, perhaps. What is genuinely troubling was the way in which Robert Levinson's fate was kept largely secret. The Iranian authorities have never revealed who captured him, who currently holds him, what charges have been laid against him, or even if he is still alive. And no effort has been made to negotiate his release, set a prison term, or work by the rules of international intelligence or diplomacy. Iran also broke every rule governing diplomatic understanding when in 1979 student revolutionaries took over 60 employees of the US embassy in Tehran captive and held 52 of them hostage for 444 days, creating problems within the US political system. On November 5, the Iranian government publicly celebrated the takeover of the embassy while burning American and Israeli flags, chanting marg bar Amrika and marg bar Esra'il, "death to America" and "death to Israel'.
Iran is one of several countries that do not allow dual citizenship. This has meant that several people with genuine Iranian citizenship coupled with equally valid American or British citizenship, when they are detained in Iran, are treated (or, rather, mistreated) as Iranian nationals with no right to access the help of their second citizen embassy (if one exists) or consulate.
There is currently no US embassy in Tehran (American affairs are being handled through the Swiss embassy or the online US Virtual Embassy), which means that any Americans or American-Iranians arrested and imprisoned (usually in Tehran's notorious Evin Prison) are unable to receive the sort of intercessionary and legal representation prisoners abroad might normally expect under international rules of legal and diplomatic representation. In this respect, Iran again stands out as a rogue state.
There is no room here for a full discussion of the many cases that have occurred or are still occurring, but it is worth mentioning several names and their stories. Last year, for example, a Canadian-Iranian professor of social anthropology, Homa Hoodfar, was arrested while carrying out fieldwork in Iran, something she had done before. Formally arrested in June on charges of "dabbling in feminism and security matters", for three months she was subjected to no fewer than thirty interrogations with death threats; forced to sleep in a bare cell in Evin; hospitalized with a lung infection, and finally released. Her Canadian nationality may have aided in that.
Years before, however, another Iranian-Canadian woman, Zahra Kazemi, a 58-year-old photojournalist, was arrested in 2003 when covering a demonstration in Tehran. She was sent to Evin, raped, tortured and savagely beaten into a coma. She died in Baghiatollah Hospital four days later. The examining doctor's description of her injuries makes gruesome reading. The Canadian Embassy was only contacted early the following month. Although an inquiry was held and some of her injuries admitted to, no one was found responsible, nor has anyone been convicted of her death.
One of the most sickening current cases of an imprisoned woman with dual nationality is that of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian project manager with the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the Canadian news agency Thomson Reuters's charitable arm. She lived in West Hampstead, near London, with her British husband Richard, an accountant. In 2014, they had a daughter, Gabriella, and in March 2016 she took her child to Iran in order to visit her parents (who had not yet seen their granddaughter). As Nazanin and Gabriella prepared to board a flight back to London in April, Revolutionary Guards arrested her. The child has since been in the care of her grandparents.
In September 2016 an Iranian revolutionary court charged her, without the slightest evidence, of "plotting to topple the Iranian regime". This was done in a trial without a defence lawyer, without any details of her "offence", and ended in a sentence to five years in prison. In Evin prison, she has suffered serious physical and mental problems. On several occasions, the United Nations demanded -- without success -- that she be released. Back in England, her husband has carried on a campaign, receiving little help from the British Foreign Office. But on October 8, he was informed that a second trial had been held, in the course of which his wife had been sentenced to an additional sixteen years in prison. If she survives this period, which seems unlikely, she will be 58 years old, in wretched health and psychologically broken.
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe (left), a British-Iranian project manager with the Thomson Reuters Foundation, travelled with her baby to visit her parents in Iran in 2016. She was arrested while preparing to board her flight back to England, and sentenced to 21 years in prison for "plotting to topple the Iranian regime". (Image source: MrZeroPage/Wikimedia Commons)
It took until November 1 this year before the British Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, finally agreed to make an official protest about the partisan imprisonment of one of his own citizens. There is a British embassy in Tehran, re-opened in 2015, four years after it was stormed by Iranian protesters. Even if the US is "the great Satan" and Israel "the smaller Satan", Britain has long been considered a source of interference in Iranian politics. Whether negotiations through the embassy will lead to Nazanin's release is very hard to say. But her case cries out for justice.
Unfortunately, Boris Johnson recently made things harder for Nazanin when, referring to her case, he made a serious gaffe, claiming she had gone to Iran to teach journalism. This was taken by the Iranian authorities as proof of their charges of espionage. That led to calls from many parties for Johnson's resignation. Johnson has since apologized and stated to parliament that she had, in fact, just gone there on holiday. He has now met (after 18 months) with Richard Ratcliffe, who asked to accompany Johnson on a forthcoming visit to Iran. Some have suggested that Nazanin be given diplomatic protection, but the Foreign Office says it fears an Iranian reaction.
On November 16, however, the Times reported that Iranian media believe that a possible payment of £450 million owed from an unfulfilled arms deal, and which Johnson is due to discuss during his diplomatic visit, is intended as a bribe to free Nazanin. Meanwhile, she now fears she may have breast cancer and is reported to be nearing a nervous breakdown.
One of the few cases in which dual-nationality prisoners have been released was in response to a $400 million bribe, hours before the activation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under the Obama administration, on January 16, 2016. Four prisoners, all Iranian-Americans, were released and flown back to the United States on that date, despite serious charges laid against them. They were: Jason Rezaian, a journalist working for the Washington Post, who suffered "irreparable harm" from "torture and other cruel treatment" during his 18-month confinement; Saeed Abedini, a Christian pastor imprisoned in 2012 for "threatening Iranian security" by holding religious gatherings; former Marine Corps infantryman Amir Hekmati, jailed for "colluding with foreign governments", who has just received a judgement from a US court saying Iran must pay him $63.5 million dollars; and former Iranian infantryman Nosratollah Khosravi-Roodsari, a man shrouded in mystery who elected to remain in Iran.
Arrests of dual-nationals are still being made. After rewarding criminality that lavishly, it is only surprising that there have not been more of them. According to Iranian journalist Saeed Kamali Dehghan, writing in the Guardian:
Last year, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned against "an infiltration" from outside into the country's political system. Since then, "infliltration" [sic] has become a code word for those accused by the authorities of having links with the west.
A string of dual nationals, mostly with additional Iranian nationality, have been accused of being part of the so-called infiltration network.
The criminal Islamic regime should release Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and the Chinese-American student, Xiyue Wang, sentenced in July this year to ten years in jail as "an infiltrating American agent". Wang, in his fourth year of a PhD in history at Princeton University, had gone to Iran to carry out research on nineteenth-century Iran -- scarcely a controversial period. Recording materials, accessing archives, and seeking entry to libraries are simply routine activities of academic researchers -- the present author did all these things, including work in a secret archive, on a nineteenth-century topic -- in Tehran many years ago and has lived to tell the tale. Wang is not even a dual-nationality Iranian-American; he only has American citizenship.
It is time for the Iranian neurosis to be challenged. If that means putting pressure on officials of the regime and their business interests, it will be a price worth paying if innocent foreigners are released to their families and friends. [1]
In August, Iran was put on a long-overdue travel advisory list. I will not go. You should not go. No one should go.
Denis MacEoin carried out research on a 19th-century Iranian religious minority in Iran while conducting his doctoral studies (Cambridge, 1979).
[1] A petition has been set up for the release of Xiyue Wang. See details and sign here. Another exists for the release of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, here.
© 2017 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Jihad Festering in America
A. Z. Mohamed/Gatestone Institute/December 13/17
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11448/jihadists-students-america
Saudi influence on American administrations, and relationships between senior officials in both countries, is behind Washington's ignoring Riyadh's "well-established... involvement in supporting terrorism and terrorist groups." — Report by the Institute for Gulf Affairs (IGA), released on June 1.
The IGA report, covering the three-year period since then and including extremely serious charges against both Saudi Arabia and previous U.S. administration and security officials, indicates the urgency with which the current administration needs to treat the issue and act upon it.
A new investigative report reveals that hundreds of Saudi and Kuwaiti nationals residing in the United States -- some with dual citizenship, and most students subsisting on government scholarships -- have joined ISIS and other terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq during the past three years.
Titled "From American Campuses to ISIS Camps: How Hundreds of Saudis Joined ISIS in the U.S.," the report -- released June 1 by the Washington-D.C.-based think tank, The Institute for Gulf Affairs (IGA) -- provides details of the flow of students leaving American institutions of higher learning to fight in the Middle East.
According to a 2016 working paper produced by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Saudi Arabia is the second-largest source of ISIS fighters from Muslim-majority countries, with an estimated 2,500. If the IGA report is accurate, a whopping 16% of these fighters were in the U.S. when they joined ISIS.
An equally disturbing finding of the report is that the Saudi government, which has been monitoring its nationals in the U.S., is fully aware that many of their own citizens are joining ISIS and not only has done little to stop them, but has kept information about the subject from American authorities.
This finding completely contradicts the 2014 State Department assertion that "Saudi Arabia has continued to cooperate with the United States to prevent acts of terrorism ... through information exchange agreements with the United States."
Meanwhile, according to the report's authors -- IGA director Ali al-Ahmed, a Saudi Shiite expatriate critical of the Sunni regime in Riyadh, and researcher Mohamed Dhamen -- the FBI failed to notice the steady stream of would-be jihadis exiting the U.S. and heading for Iraq and Syria. This failure should not come as a surprise, given the fact that one of the FBI's own employees -- Daniela Greene, a translator with top security clearance – absconded to Syria in June 2014 and married the ISIS recruiter she had been assigned to investigate. The rogue agent lied to the FBI about where she was going, alerted the terrorist that he was the subject of an FBI probe and shared classified information with him.
In a May 10 letter to Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley requested additional information on how Greene -- who eventually turned herself in, and reached a lenient plea deal -- was able to slip through the system undetected. Two days later, Grassley released a statement. "I'm troubled that a relationship between an FBI employee and a prominent ISIS recruiter went unnoticed, and more troubled that there wasn't a safeguard to successfully catch this incident," he said.
"It's important for the public to understand how this happened and how similar problems will be prevented in the future. We also need to know how prosecutors settled on the charges in this case. A sentence of two years seems unusually light for such a potential threat to national security."
Greene's case sheds light on the findings of the IGA report and its claim that Saudi influence on American administrations, and relationships between senior officials in both countries, is behind Washington's ignoring Riyadh's "well-established... involvement in supporting terrorism and terrorist groups."
The number of Saudi students in the United States in 2016 reached 125,000, the "most in the world," according to a June 14 Arab News report. Those who leave to join a terrorist group and subsequently return -- enabled by their U.S. citizenship, combined with lax monitoring of and leniency with them -- present a clear and present danger to America's home front.
As then-FBI director James B. Comey said during a House Homeland Security Committee hearing in September 2014:
"Foreign fighters traveling to Syria or Iraq could... gain battlefield experience and increased exposure to violent extremist elements... they may use these skills and exposure to radical ideology to return to their countries of origin, including the United States, to conduct attacks on the Homeland."
The IGA report, covering the three-year period since then and including extremely serious charges against both Saudi Arabia and previous U.S. administration and security officials, indicates the urgency with which the current administration needs to treat the issue and act upon it. American blood is at stake.
A.Z. Mohamed is a Muslim born and raised in the Middle East.
© 2017 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Islamic Extremism: Who is Purest of Them All?
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/December 13/17
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11442/islamic-extremism
In the twentieth century, targets were churches and synagogues; today, they are churches, synagogues, mosques, temples -- wherever there is a faith, even a Muslim one, that these Islamic fundamentalists want to "purify".
Radical Islam has declared war on the pillars of the West: modernity, science, rationalism, tolerance, equality under the law, freedom of expression and the dignity of the individual, to name only a few. Many of these ideas are currently under threat in Western Europe.
Many Europeans might sentimentally think of the hundreds of thousands of Muslims pouring into Europe as "the new Jews" – even though their culture is virtually opposite to the Jews' -- but perhaps the Europeans should be aware that they have now forced the Jews to flee twice in the modern era.
Islamists are erasing civilizations. Is Europe's next?
The number of victims in the jihadist attack at a Sufi Mosque in Egypt has risen to 305 and is destined to rise even more. Inside this number there is another one, even more tragic: the 27 children murdered by Islamic terrorists. It has been not only one of the world's most sickening terror attacks since 9/11. It was, in intent, a genocidal attack aimed to erase a religion and a community from the face of earth.
The murder of children is the most ruthless face of the war that radical Islam has declared: Palestinian children used as human shields by Hamas, Israeli children butchered in buses and cars, Iraqi children massacred by smiling terrorists with candy, French children brought as recruits to Raqqa, Iranian children sent by the Ayatollah Khomeini to Iranian camps, Christian children wiped out by the Taliban in Pakistan, Western children murdered in Barcelona, Manchester and Nice, and the children of Beslan forced to drink their own urine before being killed. How much longer will we have to update the ferocity of radical Islam?
Some Muslim writers have compared the savagery of extremist Muslims to that of the Nazis. In his novel "Le village de l'Allemande", the Muslim Algerian writer Boualem Sansal compared the similarities: "Single party, militarization, propaganda, falsification of history, xenophobia, affirmation of a plot hatched by Israel and the United States, etc." According to another Muslim dissident, Naser Khader, "the radical Muslims are the Nazis of Islam".
Naser Khader, a Muslim dissident who is a Danish Member of Parliament, says "the radical Muslims are the Nazis of Islam". (Image source: Jyske Bank TV video screenshot)
The massacre at the Sufi mosque in Egypt is reminiscent of the worst Nazi massacre France, in Oradour-sur-Glane, where German troops executed 642 people. Women and children were taken to the church, which was then set on fire. In the twentieth century, the targets were churches and synagogues; today, they are churches, synagogues, mosques, temples -- wherever there is a faith, even a Muslim one, that these Islamic fundamentalists want to "purify".
Physical violence is how the Nazis were able to "cleanse" most of Europe of the Jews -- by shooting, terrorizing, gassing and pressuring others to flee. The same strategy, for Christians and other minorities as well, is being pursued by the Islamists. By butchering 350 people, they want to terrify Christians and Sufis and erase them from Sinai. Random lynchings and other attacks were able to pressure Jews into abandoning North Africa and the Middle East, almost in its entirety. In Yemen, Egypt, Syria, Iraq and elsewhere, pogroms erupted against the Jewish communities; nearly a million Jews fled.
Radical Islam is building, under our noses, a Brave New World of mass-murder and religious submission. Its adherents seem to want to change individuals in the name of a deadly totalitarian ideology based on a specific interpretation of Islam.
Just as Nazis led a war of extermination against Jews, Slavs, Romanis, Jehovah's Witnesses, leftists, Catholic clergy, Freemasons, gays and others, extremist Muslims have declared war on Jews, Christians, Atheists, Yazidis, minorities such as Alawites, Kurds, Baha'is, Sufis and Druze, and even many of their own Muslims, branded as "apostates". At the same time, radical Islam has declared war on the pillars of the West: modernity, science, rationalism, tolerance, equality under the law, freedom of expression and the dignity of the individual, to name only a few. Many of these ideas are currently under threat in Western Europe.
Recently in Iraq, a new mass grave was found, filled with Yazidi children. The day before that, a mosque in Nigeria was attacked. It is almost impossible to make a detailed account of the jihadist massacres that take place each week. Ten years ago, Islamic terrorists attacked Yazidi villages in Iraq: 500 people were murdered; entire communities were wiped out. Recently, 500 more people were slaughtered in a Somali terror attack.
In Europe, Jewish synagogues, if they were not protected by police and soldiers, would meet the same fate. That is what came to pass with Christians in the genocide of the Armenians in Turkey (1914-1923), the murder and expulsion of its Pontic Greeks (1915-1922) , the continuing attacks on Christian Copts in Egypt, as well as with Iraqi Christian churches in Nineveh and throughout the Middle East. In Toulouse, France, Jewish children were gunned down just for being Jews for the first time since World War II.
These murderers are working to build a pan-Islamic dictatorship that sucks in the spilled blood of every culture and faith -- including their own. Islamic extremists have effectively been able to redraw the map of the Middle East by committing genocide against so many.
In Europe, Islamic radicalism has caused the largest emigration of Jews since the Holocaust (40,000 Jews have left France just in the last decade). Many Europeans might sentimentally think of the hundreds of thousands of Muslims pouring into Europe as "the new Jews" -- even though their culture is virtually opposite to the Jews' -- but perhaps the Europeans should be aware that they have now forced the Jews to flee twice in the modern era.
The level of persecution against Christians is "worse than at any time in history," according to the European-based Aid to the Church in Need. It also predicts that if the decline of its religion continues at the same rate as in the past two years, Christianity in Iraq could be wiped out as early as 2020. Islamists are erasing civilizations. Is Europe's next?
**Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and author.
© 2017 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Analysis After a Dozen Gaza Rockets in a Week, Israel Is Being Backed Into a Corner
Amos Harel/Haaretz/December 13/2017
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=61010
Frequent rocket fire from Gaza would disturb the feeling of security and would put pressure on Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman to act more resolutely
Since the evening of December 6, when U.S. President Donald Trump announced American recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, eight rockets have been fired from the Gaza Strip into the Negev region. At least three other rockets were fired from Gaza but fell inside Palestinian territory. This is the largest number of rockets fired at Israel since the end of Operation Protective Edge, the war that Israel fought with Hamas and its allies during the summer of 2014.
Israeli intelligence agencies attribute most of the rocket fire, if not all of it, to extremist Salafi factions that operate beyond Hamas’ direction. Israel has also identified preliminary steps taken by Hamas over the past few days to rein in the rocket fire, including the arrest of members of these organizations. In the past, the Hamas government in Gaza has known how to make the rules of the game that it has established with Israel clear to these smaller groups – and has adopted a harsh enforcement policy when it has understood that the rocket fire was endangering the stability of its rule in Gaza.
This time, either the message was not received or was not properly understood. It appears that in Gaza Trump’s declaration was seen as an opportunity to let off steam and attack Israeli civilian population centers. The stage of the large demonstrations by Palestinians protesting Trump’s declaration is slowly coming to an end, without leaving much of an impression on the international community, or on Trump either.
Now there is a shift to a different approach involving firing rockets from the Gaza Strip, a period during which one “lone wolf” terrorist attack also occurred, involving the stabbing by a Palestinian at the Jerusalem central bus station of a security guard, who was seriously wounded.
The Israeli response to the rocket fire from Gaza has been rather restrained so far. As has been its custom in the past, Israel has said that it views Hamas as the party responsible for violence coming from its territory – and has exacted a price from it by bombing Hamas positions and command headquarters. But the Israeli attacks have generally been carried out when the targets were empty, and the attacks have been planned in such a way as to limit the damage. In one case, last Friday, a member of the Hamas military wing was killed, and the Hamas leadership felt Israel had gone too far. For now, it seems that the Israeli leadership does not want to rock the boat to too great an extent in Gaza.
The Israeli government’s problem is that it does not fully control of the situation. Continued rocket fire and “red alert” rocket sirens will exact a psychological price from the Israeli residents in the region near the Gaza border, who have enjoyed a relatively long period of quiet and a major influx of new residents, as a result of a building boom and government tax breaks for the region following Operation Protective Edge. The traumatic experiences of Protective Edge and other previous periods, during military operations in Gaza and between them, are still remembered quite well in Sderot, Ashkelon and the nearby collective moshavim and kibbutzim communities.
Iron Dome anti-missile batteries intercepted two of the rockets fired over the past few days – and missed one rocket, which fell in a populated area in Sderot but did not cause any injuries. The Israel army made a change recently in how it calculates the area where the rockets are projected to fall (known as the “polygon”), thereby only requiring that alarms sound in a very small and more focused area, and limiting the disruption to local routines in border communities near Gaza. Nevertheless, rocket fire every day, or every other day, would disturb the feeling of security that had been restored with difficulty and would create pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman to act more resolutely. The distance could be short from that to another round of violence.
The latest tensions are occurring against the backdrop of the Israeli army’s announcement Sunday that it had successfully destroyed another attack tunnel dug well inside Israeli territory that was discovered along the border with Gaza, the second in less than two months. It appears, however, that Hamas’ actions are influenced first and foremost by another factor, its reconciliation agreement with the Palestinian Authority. So far the commitments included in the agreement have not been carried out. That’s the case when it comes to the opening of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt and the resumption of funding for Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah.
As far as Hamas is concerned, the bad news is coming from almost all directions: Trump’s announcement, the Israeli army’s success in locating attack tunnels and the difficulties with Palestinian reconciliation. If Hamas cannot deliver the goods to Gaza’s residents, who have been waiting with bated breath for a measure of improvement in their economic situation and freedom of movement, Hamas could well find itself dragged once again into an escalation with Israel – as it has acted in the past.
This is the main worry keeping Israel’s senior defense officials and political leadership busy at the moment, and it explains the relatively restrained Israeli response – restraint that could end if the frequent rocket fire continues, and certainly if the rockets inflict casualties.

Analysis Three Reasons We Aren't Seeing a Third Intifada
Anshel Pfeffer/Haaretz/December 13/2017
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=61010
Unlike the previous outbreaks in 1987 and 2000, the key elements needed to spark another Palestinian uprising do not seem to be in place
Saturday was the third day of violent demonstrations in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip border following U.S. President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. It was also December 9, the 30th anniversary of the outbreak of the first intifada.
On that day in 1987, rioting broke out across the occupied territories following the deaths of four residents of Jabalya refugee camp in the Gaza Strip in a road accident. Rumors that their deaths had been intentional inflamed passions at their funeral, and clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces quickly spread – from Jabalya to just about every point in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
It lasted for nearly six years, ending officially only with the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993.
In retrospect, the first intifada had been an event waiting to happen. It just needed a spark. The Palestinians at that point, over 20 years after the Six-Day War, wanted to prove to themselves, the Israelis and the rest of the world that they were not prepared to continue sitting docilely by while successive Israeli governments blurred the Green Line and settlements spread, stymieing the prospect of an independent Palestinian state.
It was a spontaneous awakening that ultimately succeeded in redrawing the pre-1967 borders and putting the Palestinian issue firmly on the international agenda. It took the established Palestinian organizations – the PLO and its offshoots – months to establish some semblance of control over the efforts and it spawned Hamas, the PLO’s Islamist rival, which was officially founded a week after the intifada began.
The second intifada was a very different affair. It had spontaneous and “popular” elements at first, in the rioting that broke out in Jerusalem following then-opposition leader Ariel Sharon’s visit to the Temple Mount. But from a very early stage it had a much more organized fashion, with the paramilitary groups of the Palestinian Authority, Hamas and other organizations competing with each other to carry out armed attacks on Israeli soldiers and terror bombings against civilians within the Green Line.
Seven years after the start of the Oslo process, it was an attempt by the Palestinians to make gains they had failed to achieve by diplomacy.
Palestinian protesters clashing with Israeli forces near the Israel-Gaza border, east of the southern Gaza strip city of Khan Yunis, December 10, 2017.
By 2005, with Yasser Arafat dead and his replacement by the violence-opposing Mahmoud Abbas, it had petered out. Ultimately, it was a failure. Israel abandoned the Gaza Strip and dismantled its settlements there, but politically the Palestinians remained divided: Hamas ruling Gaza, the PA the West Bank, both cut off from each other and from Jerusalem by border fences and the separation barrier.
In the 12 years since, many have anticipated a third intifada, but it has not come. With every new outbreak of violence, there was an expectation of a full-blown intifada following in its wake.
In this period there have been four rounds of heavy fighting in Gaza, which have claimed the lives of thousands of Palestinians. But the violence failed to spread to the West Bank and Jerusalem.
In September 2015, a wave of daily stabbing, car-ramming and shooting attacks began in East Jerusalem and the West Bank – but while some dubbed it the “Al-Aqsa” or “knife intifada,” it remained an accumulation of individual, lone-wolf actions that tapered off after six months and never became a widespread uprising.
This July, there was a week of widespread protests over Israeli security arrangements at the entrance to the Al-Aqsa compound (Temple Mount), but it died down quickly after Israel backed down.
While it’s too early to make any definite assessments, it seems this latest wave, now four days old, isn’t the much-anticipated third intifada, either. Friday was the peak of demonstrations, with approximately 3,000 Palestinians protesting and rioting at some 20 flash points across the West Bank. By Saturday, their number was reduced to about 500 and Sunday was even lower. While this round of violence is not yet over – and a security guard was stabbed in central Jerusalem in a terror attack on Sunday afternoon – if nothing untoward happens, it will probably peter out again in a few days.
There are three key factors lacking right now, without which it is hard to see another intifada materializing.
One: Joint interests of the three occupied Palestinian communities.
In the two intifadas, the uprising took place nearly simultaneously among all three Palestinian communities living under Israeli occupation – the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem. Currently, not only are these groups physically divided to an unprecedented extent, they also have different agendas.
In Gaza, Palestinians are eagerly awaiting the implementation of the Fatah-Hamas reconciliation, which hopefully will lead to the easing of the siege imposed on Gaza by Israel and Egypt, and a much-needed boost to the local economy. In the West Bank, the economic situation is less desperate and more of a political interest in the future of the dysfunctional PA. But Fatah here is more focused on maintaining the security coordination with Israel, which helps keep Hamas out and President Abbas in control.
The Palestinians of East Jerusalem are probably more disposed toward a confrontation with Israel. But as they contemplate their foreseeable future under Israeli civilian control, they are beginning to explore less violent tactics of civil disobedience in a quest for equal rights as Jerusalem residents.
Two: A decision by the Palestinian leadership to burn their bridges.
The PA in the West Bank and Hamas leaders in Gaza are loath to back a new round of all-out violence in their fiefdoms. They still feel they have too much to lose from chaos. Hamas is calling for an intifada, but only in the West Bank and Jerusalem where they don’t have any control. But an intifada in the West Bank will almost certainly mean the end of the PA – and when tens of thousands of officials and security personnel rely on the PA for their livelihood, there is a vested interest to continue coordinating with Israel and keeping a lid on things.
In 1987, there was no accepted local leadership that had anything to gain from maintaining the status quo. In 2000, Arafat took a gamble that Israel would not dare dismantle his hierarchy. He ended his life trapped in the PA’s headquarters in Ramallah. Abbas is no gambler.
Three: An end of Palestinian war-weariness.
The memory of the thousands of deaths in two intifadas and four Gaza conflicts inhibits any mass outpouring of rage onto the streets. Plus, there are the scenes Palestinians see on their televisions of the desolation in other parts of the Arab world, like Syria and Yemen. There may be hundreds of individuals motivated to take a knife or homemade Carl Gustav submachine gun and attack Israelis in the hope of becoming martyrs – but that is not a feeling common to wider swathes of Palestinian society. The critical mass of tens of thousands, prepared to risk their lives in a desperate uprising, doesn’t exist. Yet.
There are other contributory elements minimizing the chances of an intifada breaking out. The Israel Defense Forces in the West Bank and police in East Jerusalem have tightened their rules of engagement, reducing the number of serious casualties. The absence of mass funerals of martyrs has helped lower the flames. Likewise, the policy of the coordinator of government activities in the territories to continue letting over 50,000 Palestinian workers from the West Bank arrive daily in Israel has created a major incentive for maintaining the calm. At least half the families in the West Bank are reliant in some way on the Israeli economy, and they don’t want to go back to the intifada reality when Israel imported foreign workers to replace Palestinians.
There is plenty of Palestinian despair and anger at the lack of any prospect of diplomatic progress and an end to the occupation. But there is also political pragmatism and the necessity of making a living.
For the overwhelming majority of Palestinians, the price of another intifada is simply too high.