LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
April 05/17

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For Today
Woe to you Pharisees! For you tithe mint and rue and herbs of all kinds, and neglect justice and the love of God
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 11/37-48/:"While he was speaking, a Pharisee invited him to dine with him; so he went in and took his place at the table. The Pharisee was amazed to see that he did not first wash before dinner. Then the Lord said to him, ‘Now you Pharisees clean the outside of the cup and of the dish, but inside you are full of greed and wickedness. You fools! Did not the one who made the outside make the inside also? So give for alms those things that are within; and see, everything will be clean for you. ‘But woe to you Pharisees! For you tithe mint and rue and herbs of all kinds, and neglect justice and the love of God; it is these you ought to have practised, without neglecting the others. Woe to you Pharisees! For you love to have the seat of honour in the synagogues and to be greeted with respect in the market-places. Woe to you! For you are like unmarked graves, and people walk over them without realizing it.’ One of the lawyers answered him, ‘Teacher, when you say these things, you insult us too.’ And he said, ‘Woe also to you lawyers! For you load people with burdens hard to bear, and you yourselves do not lift a finger to ease them. Woe to you! For you build the tombs of the prophets whom your ancestors killed. So you are witnesses and approve of the deeds of your ancestors; for they killed them, and you build their tombs."

God did not call us to impurity but in holiness. Therefore whoever rejects this rejects not human authority but God, who also gives his Holy Spirit to you
First Letter to the Thessalonians 04,01-09/:"Finally, brothers and sisters, we ask and urge you in the Lord Jesus that, as you learned from us how you ought to live and to please God (as, in fact, you are doing), you should do so more and more. For you know what instructions we gave you through the Lord Jesus. For this is the will of God, your sanctification: that you abstain from fornication; that each one of you knows how to control your own body in holiness and honour, not with lustful passion, like the Gentiles who do not know God; that no one wrongs or exploits a brother or sister in this matter, because the Lord is an avenger in all these things, just as we have already told you beforehand and solemnly warned you. For God did not call us to impurity but in holiness. Therefore whoever rejects this rejects not human authority but God, who also gives his Holy Spirit to you. Now concerning love of the brothers and sisters, you do not need to have anyone write to you, for you yourselves have been taught by God to love one another".

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published On April 04-05/17
Wshington: Assad Is an Inevitable Political Reality/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat English/April 04/17
Is Europe Choosing to Disappear/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/April 04/17
On Campus: Minority Priorities/Douglas Murray/Gatestone Institute/April 04/17
The Omani Succession Envelope, Please/Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/April 04/17
Erdogan Is Dividing Turkey Against Itself/Soner Cagaptay/Atlantic/April 04/17

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published On April 04-05/17
Lebanese officials denounce St. Petersburg attacks
Hariri meet with UN Secretary General
FPM Says LF Agrees to Bassil Electoral Law: We'll Reject Extension if No New Law
Hariri Urges World to Stop Crimes in Syria instead of 'Counting' Dead Children
Hariri Urges International Support for Lebanon after Meeting Merkel
FPM Says LF Agrees to Bassil Electoral Law: We'll Reject Extension if No New Law
Mustaqbal: Electoral Law Must Ensure Correct Representation, Preserve Coexistence
Kanaan: Lebanon at Dangerous Crossroads over Electoral Law
Three Arrested in Bekaa, Sidon over Suspected Terror Ties
Public Administration Employees Go on Strike on Thursday
ISF Detain Man over Counterfeit Money in Zahle
Head of Trade Association in North Lebanon receives Pakistani Ambassador
Machnouk arrives in Tunis to take part in Arab Interior Ministers Conference
Zoayter urges UN via Twitter to press on Israel to hand over landmines maps
Barcelona football team to play football game in Beirut on April 28

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published On April 04-05/17
Canada condemns alleged chemical weapons attack in Syria
58 Killed in Suspected Gas Attack in Syria’s Idlib
U.N. war crimes investigators say probing alleged Syria gas attack
White House condemns Syria chemical attack
France Calls for U.N. Security Council Meeting on Syria 'Chemical' Attack
Russia IDs Metro Bomber as St. Petersburg Mourns 14 Dead
Trump Says Idlib Attack Result of Obama 'Weakness', Tillerson Urges Russia, Iran Action
Global Outrage as 'Chemical Attack' Kills Dozens in Rebel-Held Syria Town
Trump Pledges 'Full Support' to Putin over Russia Metro Attack
Assad’s Exiled Uncle Probed in Spain over Money Laundering
Fueling Onslaught, Syria’s Regime Constrains Draft Rules to Increase Youth Conscription
ISIS Faces Challenges via Faking Defection, Fleeing to Europe
Pirates Hijack Indian Vessel Off Somali Coast

Links From Jihad Watch Site for April 04-05/17
Philadelphia: Teen convert to Islam pleads guilty to Islamic State plot to murder Pope
Merkel government says there is no need to regulate Islamic organizations in Germany
St. Petersburg: Suspected jihad-martyrdom suicide bomber had ties to the Islamic State
Germany: Convert to Islam gets life sentence for jihad bombing and murder plots
Video trailers: Robert Spencer on Michelle Malkin Investigates on the refugee crisis and child marriage in Islam
First image of St. Petersburg terror suspect indicates that this was an Islamic jihad attack

Links From Christian Today Site For April 04-05/17
Horror escalates as deadly bomb and gas attack in Syria kills dozens
Christians in Iraq to embark on 80-mile 'peace walk' across the war-torn country in Holy Week
Prince Charles meets Pope - and gives him Highgrove hamper to feed the poor
Duke and Duchess of Cambridge to attend 'Service of Hope' as Cardinal takes imams to visit Pope Francis
Furious Church row over whether National Trust wiped 'Easter' from Easter egg hunts
Theresa May backs Church of England and attacks National Trust for 'airbrushing faith' out of Easter
Archbishop of Moscow condemns 'curse of terrorism' after St. Petersburg metro bomb blast
Terrorism suspected as at least ten are killed in Russian metro explosions
Words of Jesus to be emblazoned on London buses this Easter in new evangelical campaign

Latest Lebanese Related News published On April 04-05/17
Lebanese officials denounce St. Petersburg attacks
The Daily Star/April 04, 2017/BEIRUT: Lebanese officials Tuesday denounced the deadly St. Petersburg metro attacks, which left 14 dead and dozens more injured after an explosion rocked Russia's second city one day prior. President Michel Aoun sent a letter of condolences to his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, deploring the attack."The cowardly terror attack ... increases our conviction that the joint efforts to combat terrorism are a crucial need," Aoun said in his letter. He stressed the importance of solidarity as the "only means to eradicate the sick [ideology] by the roots and prevent it from infiltrating our regions, states and societies."Aoun offered his condolences to Putin, hoping the speedy recovery for the wounded. Prime Minister Saad Hariri also condemned the attack during a joint news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin. “Terrorism is a plague that has no religion,” the PM said, calling for further support to the Lebanese security forces in their fight against terrorism. Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil denounced the blasts as well. "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants strongly condemns the bombing of the metro in the Russian city of St. Petersburg," a Foreign Ministry statement said. Bassil added that the attack is an act of terrorism "which attempts to undermine global stability," and called for international cooperation. He also reaffirmed the ministry's full support of Russia's counterterrorism efforts. "We express our deepest condolences to the families of the victims, and wish the wounded a swift recovery." The Foreign Minister's comments came as he wrapped up a trip to Australia on Tuesday.

Hariri meet with UN Secretary General
Tue 04 Apr 2017/NNA - Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, visited on Tuesday Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antَnio Guterres, with talks focusing on most recent developments in Lebanon and the region as well as UN's role in supporting Lebanon at all levels, notably in facing Syrian displaced crisis as well as ongoing preparations for "Brussels Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region."Following his meeting with UNSG, Hariri met with the Lebanese diaspora in Brussels in presence of Ministers Marwan Hamadeh, Mouin Merehbi, Pierre Bou Assi, Raed Khoury, Ghattas Khoury, as well as former Minister and advisor of Lebanese President, Elias Bou Saab. The Premier said during a reception ceremony that Lebanon went through difficult times, "but we are taking clear steps today, we elected a President, formed a new government and we will reach soon a new electoral law." "We are democratic people and we have a cause," PM Hariri pointed out. "We are hosting 1.5 million Syrian displaced and I will clearly speak about this issue tomorrow during the conference," he added. "We call for the return of displaced Syrians to their homeland when the war ends."Lebanese Ambassador to Belgium also delivered a speech during the ceremony. On another level, Hariri met with a delegation from the Future Movement in Belgium chaired by Mohamed Kassas over the situation in Lebanon, stressing the importance of moderation in the face of extremism.

FPM Says LF Agrees to Bassil Electoral Law: We'll Reject Extension if No New Law
Naharnet/April 04/17/The Lebanese Forces has agreed to the electoral law that has been proposed by Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil and the two parties will “reject a technical extension” of parliament's term in the absence of a new electoral law, Change and Reform bloc secretary MP Ibrahim Kanaan said Tuesday. “I discussed with (LF leader) Dr. (Samir) Geagea several files, especially the electoral law and the general financial situation, and we confirmed that the FPM and the LF are in agreement on the latest electoral law that was proposed by Minister Jebran Bassil, in addition to some suggestions that we agreed on in the past,” said Kanaan after meeting Geagea in Kanaan. The meeting was held in the presence of Information Minister Melhem Riachi. “To us in the FPM and the LF, and this is a common stance, there can be no extension without a new electoral law, and even a technical extension will be discussed by the two parties should we reach this juncture, but the most important condition is the approval of a new law and let no one test us,” Kanaan warned. “We are the sons of this republic and this state and we believe in it and in its advancement and coexistence, but that requires certain rules and mechanisms,” he added. Several parties have voiced reservations over the law proposed by Bassil and Hizbullah has asked for amendments.Bassil's format calls for electing 64 MPs according to to the proportional representation system and 64 others by their respective sects under a winner-takes-all system.

Hariri Urges World to Stop Crimes in Syria instead of 'Counting' Dead Children
Naharnet/April 04/17/Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Tuesday called on the international community to “put an end to the crimes against humanity in Syria,” after a suspected chemical attack on a rebel-held Idlib town killed dozens of civilians including children and left many more sick and gasping. “Condemnations are no longer enough in the face of the regime's massacres in Syria, the last of which was the chemical bombardment of Khan Sheikhun in Idlib which left dozens dead and hundreds others injured,” Hariri tweeted. “The international community must shoulder the responsibility of putting an end to the crimes against humanity in Syria instead of counting the children, elderly and innocents who are suffocating to death by the lethal sarin gas,” the premier added. At least 11 children were among the dead, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, and an AFP correspondent in Khan Sheikhun saw many attached to respirators as they were treated for breathing problems.Hours after the initial attack, air strikes also hit a hospital in the town where doctors were treating victims, the AFP correspondent said, bringing down rubble on top of medics as they worked. Syria's opposition blamed President Bashar al-Assad's forces, saying the attack cast doubt on the future of peace talks. A senior Syrian security source denied claims of regime involvement as a "false accusation," telling AFP that opposition forces were trying to "achieve in the media what they could not achieve on the ground."
If confirmed, it would be one of the worst chemical attacks since the start of Syria's civil war six years ago. The incident brought swift international condemnation, with France and Britain demanding an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting and President Francois Hollande denouncing a "massacre."

Hariri Urges International Support for Lebanon after Meeting Merkel
Naharnet/April 04/17/After meeting French President Francoise Hollande in France, Prime Minister Saad Hariri continued his European tour and arrived in Berlin Monday evening for talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Talks with Merkel focused on the latest developments in Lebanon and the region including the burden of Syrian refugees in Lebanon that will be highlighted during a Brussels conference on Syria's future starting today. Talks have also focused on the bilateral relations between the two countries. Hariri said after meeting the German Chancellor: “Hosting the Syrian refugees is a public good, and Lebanon is committed to combating terrorism,” he said, stressing the need for “Lebanese security agencies to receive appropriate international support.” The PM pointed out that he would talk about Lebanon's vision to promote development at the Brussels conference. The European Union and the UN host a two-day conference in Brussels starting Tuesday on Syria's future. For her part Merkel said: “I highly respect the Lebanese people for hosting a substantial number of refugees. We will help it confront this crisis.”French President Francois Hollande on Monday decorated Prime Minister Saad Hariri with the insignia of Commander in the Legion of Honor over his contributions to Lebanon in the past decade, telling him that Lebanon “can always count on France's assistance and support.”Talks between the two men focused on the spiraling number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, where Hollande noted that “this requires the solidarity of the international community and France with Lebanon.”Hariri is accompanied by Culture Minister Ghattas Khoury, Former Minister Bassem al-Sabaa and his chief of staff Nader Hariri.

FPM Says LF Agrees to Bassil Electoral Law: We'll Reject Extension if No New Law
Naharnet/April 04/17/The Lebanese Forces has agreed to the electoral law that has been proposed by Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil and the two parties will “reject a technical extension” of parliament's term in the absence of a new electoral law, Change and Reform bloc secretary MP Ibrahim Kanaan said Tuesday. “I discussed with (LF leader) Dr. (Samir) Geagea several files, especially the electoral law and the general financial situation, and we confirmed that the FPM and the LF are in agreement on the latest electoral law that was proposed by Minister Jebran Bassil, in addition to some suggestions that we agreed on in the past,” said Kanaan after meeting Geagea in Kanaan. The meeting was held in the presence of Information Minister Melhem Riachi. “To us in the FPM and the LF, and this is a common stance, there can be no extension without a new electoral law, and even a technical extension will be discussed by the two parties should we reach this juncture, but the most important condition is the approval of a new law and let no one test us,” Kanaan warned. “We are the sons of this republic and this state and we believe in it and in its advancement and coexistence, but that requires certain rules and mechanisms,” he added. Several parties have voiced reservations over the law proposed by Bassil and Hizbullah has asked for amendments.Bassil's format calls for electing 64 MPs according to to the proportional representation system and 64 others by their respective sects under a winner-takes-all system.

Mustaqbal: Electoral Law Must Ensure Correct Representation, Preserve Coexistence
Naharnet/April 04/17/Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc on Tuesday stressed that the new electoral law should ensure “correct representation” and preserve “coexistence” in the country. “The bloc reiterates its principled stance regarding the electoral law, which is based on the Taef Accord that enjoyed the unanimous support of the Lebanese after it ended the civil war and put an end to strife,” said Mustaqbal in a statement issued after its weekly meeting. “Accordingly, it maintains its stance which clings to the following principles: ensuring correct representation for all Lebanese, preserving coexistence, endorsing unified standards, and rejecting draft laws that consolidate sectarianism,” the bloc added. Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has recently proposed an electoral law that mixes proportional representation with the controversial law proposed by the Orthodox Gathering. Bassil's format calls for electing 64 MPs according to the proportional representation system and 64 others by their respective sects under a winner-takes-all system.

Kanaan: Lebanon at Dangerous Crossroads over Electoral Law
Naharnet/April 04/17/MP Ibrahim Kanaan warned on Tuesday that Lebanon faces an actual crisis shall political efforts fail to reach a new law to govern the parliamentary elections, as he urged the government to shoulder the responsibility. “The government, according to the constitution, must carry out its duty at the level of the electoral law by approving the draft and referring it to the parliament, especially that the parliament has failed to resolve this file for years,” said Kanaan. He stressed that responsibilities must not be abolished, noting “the issue is strictly political. There is either a will to approve a new law or not, particularly that the political blocs in the cabinet are the same that make up the parliament,” he told VDL (93.3). The MP said everyone “must sense the seriousness of the phase that Lebanon approaches as the parliament’s term reaches its end without having a new law or specific date to stage the elections.” “Lebanon is at dangerous crossroads,” warned Kanaan as he urged for the “stabilization of hope that was born with the new term” of President Michel Aoun, urging all political parties to keep the vows they made on reaching a new election law. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has also warned that failure to approve a new electoral law might lead to a “coup-like situation” in the country. He warned that the government's procrastination or failure to pass the law “might lead to a coup-like situation that topples everything.”According to reports, intensive contacts will be held after Prime Minister Saad Hariri's return from his foreign trip “in order to put the law on the Cabinet's agenda with the aim of approving it and referring it to parliament.”The country has not organized parliamentary elections since 2009 and the legislature has instead twice extended its own mandate. The last polls were held under an amended version of the 1960 electoral law. Hizbullah has repeatedly called for an electoral law fully based on the proportional representation system and a single or several large electorates. Druze leader Walid Jumblat has rejected proportional representation, warning that it would "marginalize" his minority Druze community, whose presence is concentrated in the Aley and Chouf areas. Amid reservations over proportional representation by other parties such as al-Mustaqbal Movement and the Lebanese Forces, the political parties are mulling a so-called hybrid electoral law that mixes proportional representation with the winner-takes-all system. Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has recently proposed an electoral law that mixes proportional representation with the controversial law proposed by the Orthodox Gathering.

Three Arrested in Bekaa, Sidon over Suspected Terror Ties
Naharnet/April 04/17/Security agencies on Tuesday arrested three people in two separate operations in the Bekaa governorate and the southern city of Sidon, state-run National News Agency reported. “State Security arrested the Syrians A. Kh. R. and N. R. in the Baalbek district towns of Btedei and Deir al-Ahmar and they confessed to belonging to al-Nusra Front,” NNA said. The two detainees also confessed that they had fought alongside the terrorist groups in the Eastern Mountain Range. They were later handed over to the relevant judicial authorities via the army's Intelligence Directorate. NNA described the detainee N. R. as an official of al-Nusra Front, Syria's former al-Qaida affiliate, noting that he goes by the nom de guerre Al-Wahsh (The Beast). Separately, General Security intelligence agents arrested the Palestinian A. A. in Sidon's al-Sitt Nafisa neighborhood on suspicion of “communicating with terrorist groups.”

Public Administration Employees Go on Strike on Thursday
Naharnet/April 04/17/Lebanon's League of Public Administration Employees announced in a statement on Tuesday a general strike on April 6 to pressure the government into approving the wage scale. They said in a statement that they will stage the strike demanding the following: -Approving the wage scale that was discussed by the parliamentary committees, noting the bridging of gap between salaries of public administration employees and other corps.-The number of working hours must be kept unchanged because the wage scale is just a correction of salaries that should have been done 18 years ago. -Rejection of Article 37 of the draft salary scale under the title of appraisal of staff performance. -Rectification of salaries of employees mainly pensioners, contractors and daily workers in order to ensure their social stability. -Rejecting a halt in employment because it represents the elimination of the vital artery that provides the management with competencies and contributes to the activation of its performance.

ISF Detain Man over Counterfeit Money in Zahle
Naharnet/April 04/17/Internal Security Forces arrested a man in connection to counterfeit money being circulated throughout the eastern city of Zahle, an ISF statement said on Tuesday. “Several counterfeit money transactions have recently been carried out by an anonymous person who purchases goods from shops through a counterfeit $100 bill,” said the ISF statement. After thorough investigation, Bekaa police were able to determine the identity of the suspect as Syrian Aa.B., 29. They arrested him on April 2 in the town of Saadnayel in the eastern Bekaa region. Police confiscated counterfeit money worth $2200 in his possession. The suspect admitted that he was heading to Saadnayel to circulate the money he had.

Head of Trade Association in North Lebanon receives Pakistani Ambassador
Tue 04 Apr 2017/NNA - Ambassador of Pakistan to Lebanon, Aftab Ahmad Khokher, met on Tuesday head of Trade Association in the North, Assaad Hariri, over the economic situation and means of boosting bilateral trade exchange. The Ambassador emphasized on the solid trade relations and the importance of economic exchange between the two countries, revealing the intention to organize an exhibition of Pakistani industries in Tripoli. For his part, Hariri called for launching economic initiatives by Lebanese and Pakistani business man, stressing Tripoli's port importance in trade relations between the two countries.

Machnouk arrives in Tunis to take part in Arab Interior Ministers Conference
Tue 04 Apr 2017/NNA - Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Nohad Machnouk, arrived in Tunis on Tuesday to take part in conference of Arab Interior Ministers. Minister Machnouk will also hold bilateral meetings with his Arab counterparts to dwell on most recent developments and means of reinforcing bilateral cooperation in different fields, notably in countering terrorism.

Zoayter urges UN via Twitter to press on Israel to hand over landmines maps
Tue 04 Apr 2017/NNA - Minister of Agriculture Ghazi Zoayter called on the United Nations via his Twitter account to exert pressure on the Zionist enemy to hand over landmines' maps, pointing out that "the Israeli enemy continues in its violations of land, sea and air."Minister Zoayter urged the international community to assist the Lebanese farmers in this regard.Zoayter saluted the souls of landmines' martyrs of civilians and military, wishing those wounded in landmines speedy recovery.

Barcelona football team to play football game in Beirut on April 28
Tue 04 Apr 2017/NNA - Barcelona football team announced on Tuesday the name of his players who will arive in Beirut to play a game at the playyard of Camil Chamoun sportive city in Beirut on April 28, 2017.

Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published On April 04-05/17
Canada condemns alleged chemical weapons attack in Syria
April 4, 2017- Ottawa, Canada - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement concerning reports that chemical weapons were used in an attack in Syria:
“We are outraged by reports of a chemical weapons attack against civilians—particularly the senseless suffering and death of children—in southern Idlib, Syria. Not all the facts are yet available, but this deplorable incident is consistent with the actions of a regime that has brutally and repeatedly used chemical weapons against its own people.
“If confirmed, this new use of chemical weapons further weakens the credibility of the regime as a potential partner for peace.
“Tomorrow, I will participate in the Brussels conference on the future of Syria, to advocate for a lasting political resolution to the Syrian war. Now, more than ever, we must address the critical needs of millions of people across the region.”
Quick facts
The Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM) created by the UN and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has concluded in the past that the Government of Syria has used chemical weapons against its own people.
Canada has called for greater accountability and protection for civilians in Syria, including through Canada’s UN General Assembly resolution in December 2016, which garnered the support of 122 countries. Canada actively contributes to accountability efforts, including through its significant financial support for the OPCW-UN JIM, which investigates the use of chemical weapons.
Associated links
Canada concerned by conclusive findings of use of chemical weapons in Syria
Canada contributes €2.5 million to support OPCW work in Syria
Third Report of the OPCW-UN Joint Investigative Mechanism
UN General Assembly calls for action on Syria in Canada-led resolution
Contacts
Media Relations Office
Global Affairs Canada
343-203-7700
media@international.gc.ca
Follow us on Twitter: @CanadaFP
Like us on Facebook: Canada’s foreign policy - Global Affairs Canada

58 Killed in Suspected Gas Attack in Syria’s Idlib
Asharq Al-Awsat English/April 04/17/Dozens of people have been killed in Syria’s northern Idlib province on Tuesday in a suspected chemical attack that has been described as among the worst in the country’s six-year war. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group put the death toll at 58, saying there were 11 children among the dead. Meanwhile, the Idlib Media Center said dozens of people had been killed. There was no comment from the regime in Damascus or any international agency in the immediate aftermath of the attack. A Syrian regime source denied that the regime had used any such weapons, saying the army “does not and has not” used chemical weapons “not in the past and not in the future”. It deemed such claims as “rebel propaganda”. It was the third claim of a chemical attack in just over a week in Syria. The previous two were reported in Hama province, in an area not far from Khan Sheikhoun, the site of Tuesday’s alleged attack.
The Syrian American Medical Society, which supports hospitals in opposition-held territory, said it had sent a team of inspectors to Khan Sheikhoun before noon and an investigation was underway. The Syrian activists had no information on what agent could have been used in the assault. They claimed the attack was caused by an airstrike carried out either by the regime or Russian warplanes. A Turkey-based Syrian woman whose niece, husband and one-year-old daughter were among those killed said the warplanes struck early, as residents were still in their beds, she said, speaking on condition of anonymity because she feared for the safety of family members back in Syria. Makeshift hospitals soon crowded with people suffocating. The province of Idlib is almost entirely controlled by the Syrian opposition. It is home to some 900,000 displaced Syrians, according to the United Nations. Rebels and opposition officials have expressed concerns that the regime is planning to mount a concentrated attack on the crowded province. Tuesday’s reports came on the eve of a major international meeting in Brussels on the future of Syria and the region hosted by the EU’s High Representative Federica Mogherini.
Claims of chemical weapons attacks, particularly the use of the chlorine agent, are not uncommon in Syria’s conflict. The worst attack was what a UN report said was an attack by toxic sarin gas in August 2013 on the Damascus suburb of Ghouta that killed hundreds of civilians.
The Syrian Coalition, an opposition group based outside the country, said regime planes carried out the airstrike on Khan Sheikhoun, south of the city of Idlib, the provincial capital. It said the planes fired missiles carrying poisonous gases, killing dozens of people, many of them women and children. The coalition described the attack as a “horrifying massacre.” Photos and video emerging from Khan Sheikhoun show limp bodies of children and adults. Some are seen struggling to breathe; others appear foaming at the mouth. A medical doctor going by the name of Dr. Shajul Islam for fears for his own safety said his hospital in Idlib province received three victims, all with narrow, pinpoint pupils that did not respond to light. He published video of the patients on his Twitter account. Pinpoint pupils, breathing difficulties, and foaming at the mouth are symptoms commonly associated with toxic gas exposure.
The opposition’s Civil Defense search-and-rescue group, which released photos showing paramedics washing down victims, has not published a casualty toll. The activist-run Assi Press published video of paramedics carrying victims from the scene by a pickup truck. The victims were stripped down to their underwear. Many appeared unresponsive. Warplanes continued to pound the town after the attack, including near a medical point where victims were being treated, the Observatory said. Most of the town’s streets had become empty, a witness said. The New York-based Human Rights Watch has accused the Syrian regime of conducting at least eight chemical attacks using chlorine gas on opposition-controlled residential areas during the final months in the battle for Aleppo last year that killed at least nine civilians and injured 200. Also, a joint investigation by the United Nations and the international chemical weapons watchdog determined the regime was behind at least three attacks in 2014 and 2015 involving chlorine gas and the ISIS group was responsible for at least one involving mustard gas.

U.N. war crimes investigators say probing alleged Syria gas attack
Tue 04 Apr 2017/NNA - United Nations war crimes investigators said on Tuesday they were looking into an alleged chemical weapons attack on a Syrian town in Idlib as well as reports of a subsequent attack on a medical facility where injured people were being treated. In a statement condemning the attack that killed scores of civilians, the U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Syria said that the use of chemical weapons as well as any deliberate targeting of medical facilities "would amount to war crimes and serious violations of human rights law". "It is imperative for perpetrators of such attacks to be identified and held accountable," said the independent panel led by Brazilian expert Paulo Pinheiro.-----Reuters

White House condemns Syria chemical attack
Tue 04 Apr 2017/NNA - The White House condemned what it called a "reprehensible" and "intolerable" chemical attack in Syria Tuesday and pinned the blame squarely on Bashar Assad's forces. White House spokesman Sean Spicer said an "extremely alarmed" President Donald Trump had been briefed extensively on the attack. "Today's chemical attack in Syria against innocent people, including women and children, is reprehensible," Spicer said, adding that the administration was "confident" in its assessment that Assad was to blame. The Syrian army has categorically denied involvement.--AFP

France Calls for U.N. Security Council Meeting on Syria 'Chemical' Attack
Tue 04 Apr 2017/NNA - France called Tuesday for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council over a suspected chemical attack in rebel-held northwestern Syria that killed at least 58 civilians. French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault described the attack as "monstrous" and added: "I have called for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council." Ayrault said "chemical weapons" had been used in the attack and that it was "more proof of the savagery that the Syrian people have been subjected to for so many years."The attack in the town of Khan Sheikhun left dozens struggling to breathe and displaying symptoms such as foaming at the mouth and vomiting and fainting, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. A hospital in the town where doctors were treating victims of the attack was also bombarded, an AFP correspondent said.-----AFP

Russia IDs Metro Bomber as St. Petersburg Mourns 14 Dead
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 04/17/Russian investigators Tuesday identified the bomber in the deadly Saint Petersburg metro blast as 22-year-old Akbarjon Djalilov, as Russia's second city mourned the 14 people killed. The Investigative Committee said in a statement that Djalilov "carried out an explosion" in the carriage of a train traveling between two busy stations on Monday afternoon. Djalilov's "genetic trace" was also found on a bag containing a second bomb left at another metro station and later defused, the statement said. Investigators gave no further details about Djalilov but his name and year of birth coincided with a statement from the Kyrgyz security services which said earlier Tuesday he was a naturalized Russian citizen originally from Kyrgyzstan. The remains of the bomber were found at the scene of the blast, but it was not clear if he is included in the official toll of the attack. Flags flew at half-mast in Russia's second city and flowers and candles piled up at an impromptu memorial outside the metro station rocked by the attack, as authorities beefed up security on the busy underground transport system. The Kremlin said the bombing was "a challenge to every Russian", including President Vladimir Putin. The bombing raised jitters ahead of the Confederations Cup football tournament in June, with the opening game and final set to be held in Saint Petersburg as Russia gears up towards hosting the World Cup next year. Commuters on the busy Saint Petersburg metro remained on edge after the system temporarily shut down Monday in the wake of the attack. "Everyone in the metro can only think of this," said 45-year-old Svetlana Golubeva as she entered the underground. Resident Dmitry Leonov said there was a sense of shock that terror could strike the city as he picked his way through the candles and flower tributes lining the gates of the station. "Now we're all under threat," he said.
Food for thought'
Putin, who hails from Saint Petersburg, was holding a meeting near the city at the time of the bombing and later on Monday added his own floral tribute at the scene."The fact that the act of terror was perpetrated at the moment that the head of state was in the city is food for thought," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday. A spokesman for Kyrgyzstan's security services, Rakhat Sulaimanov, told AFP in Bishkek that authorities of the ex-Soviet republic were in contact with their Russian counterparts over the case. There has not been a claim of responsibility for the attack, which came after the Islamic State group called for attacks on Russia in retribution for its military intervention in Syria against the jihadists. Russia has long been battling an Islamist insurgency in its volatile Caucasus region and has suffered a string of bloody terror attacks over the years. Health Minister Veronika Skvortsova said the toll from the blast had climbed from 11 to 14 Tuesday as three people succumbed to their injuries, adding that 49 more people remained in hospital. Those hurt include citizens of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, as well as Russians from 13 different regions, according to the Saint Petersburg authorities.
The chief of the Saint Petersburg metro, Vladimir Garyugin, said Tuesday that quick actions by staff prevented a much higher toll and that passengers had helped each other instead of panicking. The second bomb was an explosive device fashioned from a fire extinguisher and hidden in a bag, he said. "A metro employee quickly cordoned off the area and called in experts," Garyugin said in televised remarks.
'Barbaric act' -
In the wake of the attack Putin spoke to a string of leaders around the globe -- including holding only his second phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump overnight. Trump offered Putin the "full support of the United States Government," according to a White House statement. Putin also talked up cooperation in the fight against terrorism with leaders in Germany, France, Turkey and the king of Saudi Arabia. The attack in Saint Petersburg is the first in several years to hit a major city in Russia.  In October 2015, a bomb attack claimed by IS downed a plane carrying holidaymakers back to Saint Petersburg from Egypt in October 2015. All 224 people onboard were killed. Russian ground transport has also been hit by extremists before, including in the Moscow metro and the Domodedovo airport, where a blast claimed by Islamic insurgents killed 37 people in 2011. In an apparently unrelated incident, two traffic policemen were killed overnight in the southern city of Astrakhan when unidentified assailants opened fire on them, the regional governor said, calling them "radical Islamists."

Trump Says Idlib Attack Result of Obama 'Weakness', Tillerson Urges Russia, Iran Action
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 04/17/
U.S. President Donald Trump blamed the Assad regime for the suspected chemical attack in an Idlib town on Tuesday, saying it was a consequence of the Obama administration “weakness and irresolution.”U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson meanwhile warned that Assad must be held accountable for chemical weapons attacks and demanded that Russia and Iran bring their ally to heel. "While we continue to monitor the terrible situation, it is clear that this is how Bashar al-Assad operates: with brutal, unabashed barbarism," Tillerson added. The U.S. administration has been under fire for concentrating its efforts on the defeat of the jihadist Islamic State group and not on ending Assad's civil war against his domestic opposition. But Tillerson, who will visit Moscow next week, said the latest attack underlined the need for Russia and Iran to save the civil war peace process by reigning in their ally's excesses. "Those who defend and support him, including Russia and Iran, should have no illusions about Assad or his intentions," he said. "Anyone who uses chemical weapons to attack his own people shows a fundamental disregard for human decency and must be held accountable. "We call upon Russia and Iran, yet again, to exercise their influence over the Syrian regime and to guarantee that this sort of horrific attack never happens again," Tillerson said. "As the self-proclaimed guarantors to the ceasefire negotiated in Astana, Russia and Iran also bear great moral responsibility for these deaths," he added.
A suspected chemical attack on the rebel-held Idlib town of Khan Sheikhun killed dozens of civilians including children and left many more sick and gasping. At least 11 children were among the dead, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, and an AFP correspondent in Khan Sheikhun saw many attached to respirators as they were treated for breathing problems. Hours after the initial attack, air strikes also hit a hospital in the town where doctors were treating victims, the AFP correspondent said, bringing down rubble on top of medics as they worked. Syria's opposition blamed Assad's forces, saying the attack cast doubt on the future of peace talks. A senior Syrian security source denied claims of regime involvement as a "false accusation," telling AFP that opposition forces were trying to "achieve in the media what they could not achieve on the ground."If confirmed, it would be one of the worst chemical attacks since the start of Syria's civil war six years ago. The incident brought swift international condemnation, with France and Britain demanding an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting and President Francois Hollande denouncing a "massacre."

Global Outrage as 'Chemical Attack' Kills Dozens in Rebel-Held Syria Town
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 04/17/A suspected chemical attack in rebel-held northwestern Syria killed dozens of civilians including children and left many more sick and gasping on Tuesday, causing widespread outrage. The attack on the town of Khan Sheikhun killed at least 58 civilians and saw dozens suffer respiratory problems and symptoms including vomiting, fainting and foaming at the mouth, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said. Syria's opposition blamed President Bashar al-Assad's forces, saying the attack cast doubt on the future of peace talks. The army denied any involvement in a statement blaming "terrorist groups" for using "chemical and toxic substances."At least 19 children and 13 women were among the dead, the Observatory said, and an AFP correspondent in Khan Sheikhun saw many people on respirators. If confirmed, it would be one of the worst chemical attacks since Syria's civil war began six years ago. The incident brought swift international condemnation, with the United States, France and Britain all pointing the finger at Assad.
U.S. blames Damascus
The White House condemned what it called a "reprehensible" attack by Assad's forces.
Spokesman Sean Spicer said President Donald Trump had been briefed extensively on the incident, adding that Washington was "confident in its assessment" that Damascus was to blame. Spicer also suggested it was in the "best interest" of Syrians for Assad not to lead the country. "The idea that someone would use chemical weapons on their own people, including women and children, is not something that any civilized nation should sit back and accept or tolerate," he said. U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura said the attack was believed to be chemical and launched from the air, adding that there should be a "clear identification of responsibilities and accountability." The Observatory said the attack on a residential part of Khan Sheikhun came early on Tuesday, when a warplane carried out strikes that released "toxic gas." As well as those killed, at least 160 people were injured, it said, and many died even after arriving at medical facilities. The monitor could not confirm the nature of the gas, but said the attack was probably carried out by government warplanes. "We heard strikes this morning... We ran inside the houses and saw whole families just dead in their beds. Children, women, old people dead in the streets," resident Abu Mustafa said. Russia's military, which has been fighting in support of Assad's government since September 2015, denied carrying out any strikes near the town. Hours after the initial attack, air strikes also hit a hospital in the town where doctors were treating victims, the AFP correspondent said, bringing down rubble on top of medics as they worked. He saw a young girl, a woman and two elderly people dead at a hospital. A father carried his dead little girl wrapped in a sheet, her lips blueish and her dark curls visible. As doctors worked, a warplane circled overhead, striking first near the facility and then hitting it twice, inflicting severe damage and prompting nearly a dozen medical staff to flee. Speaking to AFP, medic Hazem Shehwan said victims of the earlier attack had symptoms including "pinpoint pupils, convulsions, foaming at the mouth and rapid pulses."
Army denial
Khan Sheikhun is in Idlib province, which is largely controlled by an alliance of rebels including former al-Qaida affiliate Fateh al-Sham Front. The province is regularly targeted in government and Russian air strikes, and has also been hit by the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State group, usually targeting jihadists. Syria's leading opposition group, the National Coalition, blamed Assad for the attack and demanded that the United Nations "open an immediate investigation" and hold those responsible to account. "Failure to do so will be understood as a message of blessing to the regime for its actions," it said. Damascus officially joined the Chemical Weapons Convention and turned over its declared chemical arsenal in 2013, as part of a deal to avert U.S. military action. That agreement came after hundreds of people -- up to 1,429 according to a U.S. intelligence report -- were killed in chemical weapons strikes allegedly carried out by government troops east and southwest of Damascus. But there have been repeated allegations of chemical weapons use since, with a U.N.-led investigation pointing the finger at the regime for at least three chlorine attacks in 2014 and 2015.
The army again denied using chemical weapons on Tuesday, insisting "it has never used them, any time, anywhere, and will not do so in the future." The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said it was "seriously concerned" by reports of the attack. And the U.N.'s Commission of Inquiry for Syria said it had begun investigating the "alleged use of chemical weapons".
Peace talks doubts
More than 320,000 people have been killed in Syria since the conflict began in March 2011 with anti-government protests. Successive rounds of peace talks, including a U.N.-sponsored meeting in Geneva last week, have failed to produce a political breakthrough. Tuesday's attack cast new doubt on the peace process, said the opposition's chief negotiator Mohamad Sabra. "If the United Nations cannot deter the regime from carrying out such crimes, how can it achieve a process that leads to political transition in Syria?" he told AFP. A senior Syrian security source told AFP that opposition forces were trying to "achieve in the media what they could not achieve on the ground" by spreading images from the alleged attack site. The U.N. Security Council is to hold an emergency meeting on Wednesday to discuss the attack following calls from France and Britain. "I've seen the reports about the use of sarin and as far as I know they have not been confirmed," the British ambassador to the U.N. Matthew Rycroft said. "This is clearly a war crime," Rycroft told reporters. "I call on the Security Council members who have previously used their vetoes to defend the indefensible to change their course."

Trump Pledges 'Full Support' to Putin over Russia Metro Attack
Naharnet/April 04/17/US President Donald Trump spoke Monday with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and pledged Washington's "full support" for Moscow's response to the deadly attack on the Saint Petersburg metro, the White House said. Trump expressed his condolences and condemned the attack, which killed 11 people and left dozens wounded. Russian authorities said they were probing an "act of terror.""President Trump offered the full support of the United States Government in responding to the attack and bringing those responsible to justice," the White House said in a statement about the phone call.
"Both President Trump and President Putin agreed that terrorism must be decisively and quickly defeated." There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the explosion in Saint Petersburg, which comes after the Islamic State group called for attacks on Russia in retribution for its military intervention in Syria fighting against the jihadists. Earlier Monday at a White House event, Trump described the attack as "a terrible thing."
Trump's phone call with Putin comes as the US Congress investigates Russian interference in last year's presidential election. American intelligence alleges that Putin directed a campaign to tip the US election in Trump's favor.

Assad’s Exiled Uncle Probed in Spain over Money Laundering
Asharq Al-Awsat English/April 04/17
In this May 27, 2005 file photo, Rifaat Assad, the exiled uncle of Syrian President Bashar Assad speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in his office in Marbella, southern Spain. Spanish police raided on Tuesday the properties belonging to Rifaat Assad, the uncle of Syrian regime head Bashar Assad, as part of a money laundering investigation. They also blocked his bank accounts. Relatives of the former Syrian vice president were also included in the raids and assets freeze. Spain’s Civil Guard said searches took place in the southern coastal towns of Marbella and Puerto Banus. They followed a request by National Court judge Jose de la Mata. A court statement said the judge is probing money laundering crimes carried out by a gang. Two of Rifaat Assad’s wives and six of his sons were being investigated. No arrest orders were made. Rifaat Assad is the exiled uncle of Bashar Assad. He was vice president of Syria when the country was ruled by Bashar’s father Hafez. In March, a Spanish court said it would investigate a criminal complaint against members of the Syrian regime’s security and intelligence forces in issues related to state terrorism and forced disappearance of people.
The complaint was brought in January by a Syrian-born woman of Spanish nationality, who says her brother disappeared after being arrested and was tortured and executed in 2013 at a center in Damascus under the control of the Syrian regime. It is the first criminal case against Syrian security forces to be investigated by a foreign court, said Toby Cadman, a lawyer for London-based chambers Guernica 37, which is representing the woman bringing the charge. Other cases have been filed in Germany and France, but have not yet been accepted by the courts, he said. The complaint has been filed against nine Syrian officials, including head of intelligence Ali Mamlouk and former Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa. Although there would be formidable obstacles to bringing the Syrian regime members named in the complaint before a judge in Spain, Cadman said there was still an acceptable chance of them standing trial.

Fueling Onslaught, Syria’s Regime Constrains Draft Rules to Increase Youth Conscription
Asharq Al-Awsat English/April 04/17
Damascus- In an effort to escape the Syrian regime’s compulsory military drafting, which would see him tossed at frontlines of bloody battles fought by authoritarian Bashar Al-Assad against his people, a young male self-mutilated in a vivid public display which left Syrians in shock.
A young man, in his 20’s, hurled naked into the streets of Aleppo and single-handedly maimed his genitals while loudly renouncing his manhood. “I’m not a man, I’m a woman!,” he cried at the top of his lungs with blood gushing down his thighs. The horrific incident followed recently passed string of stringent drafting measures ordered by the regime as it aims to fortify its fronts in the brutal civil war ripping Syria apart. After six-years of onslaught, losing troops, and with an exhausted artillery, Assad’s regime deploys young recruits to fight at frontlines. Andrew Tabler, an expert on Syrian affairs, says Assad seems to have failed to increase numbers. One indication is a string of failures on the battlefield, and the huge push to get more cannon fodder. The other is the extent to which draft-dodging has helped fuel the refugee crisis as men try to escape conscription. Social media platforms were set on fire with footage circulated of the 20 year-old’s actions, jumping around the streets covered in blood while bystanders stood in shock at what was happening before them. A number of assumptions were cast around the motive which led to the accident– the young man was a university student allegedly suffering from psychological disorders and who had completely collapsed when stopped by a military patrol to be taken to serve in the military reserve .Apparently, the university student found no alternative way to escape the situation but the sever lengths he resorted to. The majority of Syrians feel Assad’s regime is engaged in a futile and vicious war and is indiscriminately sending their children to fuel it. Some concerned parents phrased the current regime actions of being directly responsible for “serving their children to a free death”. Every day there are merciless new measures to conscript youth and amend draft laws to include a wider array of the social fabric.
The last of these amendments was the forced drafting of university students, who formerly were exempted from military service until they complete their academic studies. In a letter issued last month by the directorates, official requests were made on narrowing down the criteria on legal absolution for youths serving at the military reserve. One of the requests was annulling scholastic immunity which provides a leeway for students to postpone serving at the army.

ISIS Faces Challenges via Faking Defection, Fleeing to Europe
Asharq Al-Awsat English/April 04/17/Beirut – ISIS is still in a quest of plans to face the ongoing challenges and to find an alternative to its collapsing “state.” Several sources reported that the extremist group has moved on in a plan by which some of its members faked defecting from the group to join other factions such as Tahrir al-Sham and Free Syrian Army (FSA). Also, news spread on dozens of members heading towards Europe. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Director Rami Abdulrahman told Asharq Al-Awsat that most of those who announced defection were former personnel in the civil administrations affiliated to ISIS and were not fighters.Abu Mohammed Alrquaoui, an activist in “Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently” Campaign, clarified that the greatest number of the defected is of locals and not foreign members – he warned of their danger given that lately the frequency of assassinations and bomb-laced vehicles increased. Faking defection is not the only plan ISIS is using to endure the consecutive strikes, whether in Syria or in Iraq, as revealed by member of Furat Post campaign Ahmad Ramadan. He saw that as a result of the increased pressure on ISIS, some members are defecting for real while others are faking it. He added, “We witnessed the fleeing of dozens to Europe – this process will continue as long as funds exist and we all know that ISIS has enormous financial capabilities and can, subsequently, bypass the measures applied in European countries.”He concluded that their purpose of heading there is not restricted to conducting security operations but exceeds to attempts to spread the group intellect, mobilize individuals and urge them to head towards battle fronts, in Syria and Iraq.

Pirates Hijack Indian Vessel Off Somali Coast
Asharq Al-Awsat English/April 04/17
Somali pirates who had seized an Indian cargo dhow off the Somali waters have taken the vessel to El-Hur, near the port of Hobyo in the semi-autonomous Galmudug state, a pirate leader told Reuters on Tuesday. Eleven crew members were on board the hijacked dhow. Aw Kombe also said the pirates were in touch with businessmen in Kismayu over releasing the vessel, Al Kausar. “The traders want the dhow be released without ransom but my friends say they may not release without at least some cash,” he added. “They are still discussing.”The identity and origin of the hijackers was disputed, however. A Galmudug state official said the pirates came from northern Somalia’s semi-autonomous state of Puntland while Kombe, a Puntland pirate leader, put the blame on “our friends from Galmudug state”. The Al Kausar was commandeered in the vicinity of Socotra Island while en route from Dubai to Puntland’s port of Bosasso, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which coordinates shipping in the Gulf of Aden area. Ship owners have become less wary of piracy after a long period of calm off the Horn of Africa, experts say, and some have started using a riskier route known as the Socotra Gap, between Somalia and Socotra Island, to save time and costs. “The pirates who hijacked the dhow are from Puntland,” said a government official in Galmudug state, who did not want to be named because he was not authorized to speak on the incident. Local elders are trying to negotiate with the pirates to secure the release of the crew and the boat, said Ahmed Mohamed, an official with the Somali state of Galmudug. Somali pirates often release boats chartered by Somali businessmen without ransom. The attack on the small ship happened Saturday as the vessel passed through the narrow channel between Yemen’s Socotra Island and the Somali coast, said Graeme Gibbon Brooks, CEO of Dryad Maritime, a shipping security firm. He said the pirates were taking the vessel to the Eyl area of northern Somalia. Lt. Ian McConnaughey, a spokesman for the US Navy’s 5th Fleet in Bahrain, said sailors there are “aware of the reports and we are monitoring the situation.” The 5th Fleet oversees regional anti-piracy efforts. Piracy off Somalia’s coast was once a serious threat to the global shipping industry. It has lessened in recent years after an international effort to patrol near the country, whose weak central government has been trying to assert itself after a quarter-century of conflict. Since then, concerns about piracy off Africa’s coast have largely shifted to the West Africa’s Gulf of Guinea on the Atlantic Ocean. But frustrations have been rising among Somali fishermen, including former pirates, at what they say are foreign fishermen illegally fishing in local waters. In March, Somali pirates hijacked the Comoros-flagged oil tanker Aris 13, marking the first such seizure of a large commercial vessel since 2012. They later released the vessel and its Sri Lankan crew without conditions, Somali officials said at the time. Pirates in late March also seized a fishing trawler, which police warned could be used for further piracy.

Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published On April 04-05/17
Wshington: Assad Is an Inevitable Political Reality
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat English/April 04/17
White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer recently dropped a bombshell when he said that Assad is a political reality that should be accepted.
The reason? Spicer officially said that: “the United States has profound priorities in Syria and Iraq and we’ve made it clear that counterterrorism, particularly the defeat of ISIS, is foremost among those priorities.”
In fact, by stating this dangerous announcement, US President Donald Trump isn’t far from the pledges he made during his presidential campaign. Back then, Trump criticized the policy of former president Barack Obama for allowing Iran to take over Iraq and Syria. He said that once he becomes president he will focus on fighting terrorist organizations in collaboration with the Russians. So practically, he is doing what he literally said before.
The difficult question here is how can Trump fight Iran’s influence and ISIS, and at the same time collaborate with the regime in Damascus?
Prior to the civil war in Syria, Damascus had a strategic relation with Iran which caused the deterioration of Assad’s regime relations with countries of the moderation camp, such as Gulf countries and Egypt.
USA was swamped in its crisis in Iraq after the occupation, and it downed on it that Iran used Syria as a host center of terrorists from all over the world. The terrorists were then prepared to fight in Iraq under al-Qaeda, for six bloody years.
Since the beginning of the revolution in Syria, most Gulf countries wanted to avoid it, hadn’t it been for Damascus which preferred taking the tough way out, which included cooperation with Iran to confront the defections and fight the armed opposition.
The truth is that Iran’s military support failed to save the Syrian regime which wouldn’t have survived to this day, or what Spicer dubbed “new political reality”, hadn’t it been for the massive military Russian intervention.
If we are willing to accept this truth, then the Syrian regime must accept it too. Iran was the problem yesterday and it will be the problem tomorrow.
Iran is the reason behind Damascus’ disputes with Arab countries in the region, which are defending themselves against the ongoing Iranian aggressive and destructive expansion.
This Arab struggle with Ayatollah’s regime has nothing to do with the Arab disputes with the Assad regime of Bashar al-Assad who couldn’t properly manage his relations with Arab states, unlike his late father Hafez al-Assad.
Hafez al-Assad maintained relations between Arab countries as well as Iran and was a positive mediator in the Iran-Gulf disputes.
It is possible for the Gulf States to deal positively with the “new political reality”, something that Turkey had already accepted since Ahmet Davutoglu resigned and Binali Yildirim was assigned as prime minister instead.
The first question is: whether the regime in Damascus wants to end the Iranian military presence on its territories or not? This question is followed by another whether it can actually rid itself of the Iranian Quds Forces and its Lebanese, Iraqi, Pakistani, and Afghani militias, estimated to be 50,000 in number.
The will to find a political solution for the Syrian crisis has been the Syrian opposition’s project for over three years, ever since it was clear that neither party can win the war through the power of weapon.
The disagreement is, and has been, on the solution formula and we can safely say that it failed, and Assad no has exclusive control of everything, or so he thinks.
The truth is that Syria has become a broken vase and we should wait and see how it can be fixed on the levels of politics, administration and security without the support of moderate Arab states.
The next tough formula, given there is an agreement to keep Assad’s regime, remains in taking Iran out of the presidential palace in Damascus. With Ayatollah regime in control of most important pillars of the Syrian state, the country will not have any stability no matter how much world powers agree.
I am not saying this out of moral denial to what’s happening but the Syrian reality itself is greater than Iran, Russia, and the Damascus regime. Reality demands understanding the fact that the presence of Iran and its militias on Syrian soil will ruin any agreement signed by any party.

Is Europe Choosing to Disappear?
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/April 04/17
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=54028
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/10133/europe-disappearing
A sterile Europe apparently thought that civil liberties could be bargained away in exchange for a temporary peace. Everything became negotiable.
As British author Douglas Murray has asked, why were workers not brought in from European countries suffering high unemployment, such as Portugal, Italy, Greece or Spain?
A clear-eyed U.S. Congressman, Rep. Steve King, correctly said recently that, "You cannot rebuild your civilization with somebody else's babies." He instantly drew that white-hot fire reserved for people who tell truths that threaten treasured fantasies (think Giordano Bruno or Galileo).
The new data released by Italy's National Institute for Statistics for 2016 sounds again like a death knell. There has been a new negative record of births: 474,000 compared to 486,000 for 2015, which had already fallen to historic lows. There were 608,000 deaths in 2016. In one year, Italy lost 134,000 people -- the equivalent of a city of the size of Ferrara or Salerno.
The demographic "illusion" is kept only by the influx of immigration (135,000). If one needs an idea of what Italy would be without immigrants, look at Emilia-Romagna, one of Italy's most populated and affluent regions: in 2035 it will have 20% fewer residents.
Italy is sometimes thought of Europe's guinea pig: wherever Italy goes, much of Europe follows it, especially in the central and southern countries. In 1995, Antonio Golini, a professor at La Sapienza University and a former president of the National Institute of Statistics, was contacted by the director-general of Plasmon, Italy's largest producer of baby food. Looking at the declining birth rates, the firm asked him if something could be done to prevent the company from going out of business. Plasmon started to make dietary products for adults.
A year ago, European geographers went in search of "the most desolate place in Europe". They discovered it not in northern and cold Lapland, but in sunny Spain, specifically in the area of Molina de Aragon, two hours from Madrid. Depopulation has not been the consequence of the climate, as in the Russian steppe or northern forests, but of a demographic crisis.
A report by the National Statistical Institute of Spain explained how the Iberian peninsula has become the sick man of Europe: Spain loses 72 inhabitants every day; 20% fewer children are born there than two decades ago. Demographers draw a line where Spain has no future and 30% of the population will be over the age of 65. In some Spanish regions, the fertility rate barely reaches one child per woman. Deaths already exceed births. Even the newspaper El Pais asked, "Are the Spanish people in danger of extinction?". The Spanish government just appointed a "sex czar" to try to figure out how to sustain the shrinking population.
Spain, in 2050, will be a depopulated nation dominated by older people and singles. The country will lose 5.3 million inhabitants: 11% of the current population. By that time, there will be 1.7 million Spanish children fewer than there are today. No children means that, in the long run, there will be no economic growth or prosperity; democracy will become a gerontocracy and Spain will embrace global irrelevance. Alejandro Macarrón Larumbe, director of the Foundation for Demographic Revival, has provided figures on the number of Spanish provinces that have already seen a loss of population.
The Islamic world has launched a demographic challenge to a sterile Europe. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently exhorted Muslims in Europe to have five children, "because you are the future of Europe". It echoes what the President of Algeria, Houari Boumedienne, said in 1974: "The wombs of our women will give us victory". They dream of conquering Europe through demography instead of terror -- and it seems they are succeeding.
While Italian and Spanish statistics were released, another headline should have captured our attention: "Islam will surpass Christianity" -- to become the world's largest religion in 2070. There is a link not only between Europe's empty cradles and Islam's expansion, but also between Europe's demographic suicide and its passivity facing its many troubles during the last two years: mass immigration, terrorism, intimidation.
No modern, affluent society ever stopped having children before. The influx of Muslim immigrants is a symptom, not a cause of Europe's decline. Members of a healthy continent, who embrace the future in its most elementary form (raising a new generation), would have never have allowed foreign immigrants carving out separate spheres of sharia law in Europe's multicultural enclaves.
As the British author Douglas Murray, has asked, why were workers not brought in from European countries suffering high unemployment, such as Portugal, Italy, Greece or Spain? A sterile Europe apparently thought that civil liberties could be bargained away in exchange for a temporary peace. Everything became negotiable, because everything seemed perishable. An entire continent is filled with aging occupants indulging in childlike illusions of "internationalism", and claiming that all conflicts can be resolved peacefully, non-lethally and diplomatically. Europe's culture is essentially pacifist. It demonizes war, and seeks pleasure and comfort above all else.
Europe's demographic suicide also has serious consequences for the security of a society. During the transition to an elderly-majority state, democracy will be endangered. Welfare redistribution depends on younger workers providing payroll taxes to fund social security. What happens when an elderly majority can vote for itself more and more, at the expense of the dwindling young? National defense will be endangered. Today Europe already refuses to invest in the NATO alliance. Old people's entitlements will take precedence over defense spending. States that will not spend money on defense will be vulnerable to those that do.
A clear-eyed U.S. Congressman, Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), correctly said recently that, "You cannot rebuild your civilization with somebody else's babies." He instantly drew that white-hot fire reserved for people who tell truths that threaten treasured fantasies (think Giordano Bruno or Galileo).
Decline is a choice, not a destiny. There is still time, but not much, for Europeans to choose not to disappear.
*Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and author.
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On Campus: Minority Priorities
Douglas Murray/Gatestone Institute/April 04/17
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/10144/campus-minority-priorities
Like so many leaflets before them, these talked about the scourge of "privilege". And whom did these pamphlets identify as the people with the most privilege?
At present, the people who preach tolerance in America and Canada are turning out to be the least tolerant.
And the people who complain of discrimination turn out to be leading practitioners of the oldest discrimination of all.
The free speech wars on North American campuses appear to have arrived at their inevitable endpoint. For years, American and Canadian students have played around with a new form of morality in education. It is based not on a traditional concept of searching for truth or investigating and analysing ideas, but rather on the concept that the veracity of an opinion can be discerned by the person uttering it.
In this way, a considerable number of people have apparently decided that a variety of "privileges" exist that make some speakers vital to listen to and others unnecessary, unless they agree to mouth a set of pre-ordained platitudes.
This concept, coupled with the idea that minorities require special protection from speech, have now finally delivered the moral breakdown that was always waiting for it. The warning signs have been there for years.
In 2010, the former editor of the left-wing magazine The New Republic, Martin Peretz, arrived to speak at Harvard University. There he was greeted by a group of around a hundred students and others who decided to shout at him as he arrived at their campus. They decided to greet him with chants of "Hey hey, ho ho, Marty Peretz has got to go." And so, a generation of American students who can have had little, if any, knowledge of Peretz's career or left-wing interests, chose to name him a racist and be done with him.
Being Jewish, a minority group, certainly did not offer any protection, and may indeed have harmed his cause; it already seemed that there were ordering-systems at work in the business of minority priorities.
By the time, then, that the British-born Milo Yiannopoulos was touring American campuses in 2016-17, protest movements were busily trying to work out precisely what orders of persecuted minorities should exist. As Yiannopoulos is openly gay, there was a slight queasiness about shutting him down -- at first. People who are members of at least one minority group have a certain protected status, and as such a certain inevitably about ranking develops. But just as you can be marked up, you can be marked down. Yiannopoulos may be gay, but he has been rude about aspects of transsexualism. That view at least evened things out. However, his tendency to criticise Islam and Muslims moved him lower -- indeed right down to the lowest level, that of white heterosexual male.
Activist and writer Milo Yiannopoulos, who is gay but has been rude about aspects of transsexualism, was supposed to speak at the University of California, Berkeley on February 1. That evening, a mob of 150 people, who opposed to Yiannopoulos' presence, proceeded to riot, smash and set fire to the campus, causing more than $100,000 of damage. (Image source: RT video screenshot)
As though to prove that it was not just "provocateurs" who now incur the wrath of the Stepford students, this year, the distinguished sociologist Charles Murray (no relation) was due to speak at Middlebury College. The college authorities had warned students that while protests would be allowed, any attempts to disrupt the lecture would be looked at in a very different light.
Murray was due to address the themes of his 2012 book, Coming Apart, a seminal analysis of the social bifurcation and sense of being "left behind" that led to last year's election results in America.
Students at a liberal college could ordinarily do with hearing someone explain the social forces that are pulling them and the rest of the country apart from each other.
But the students of Middlebury evidently decided that they did not need to hear this. Instead of simply staying away from the lecture, they chose to embed those divisions. Dozens of the students at Middlebury decided, it seems, that Murray was a racist. They had also decided, for reasons which nobody even bothered to explain, that he was "anti-gay".
So, before and during Murray's thwarted attempt to give a lecture, they bawled and chanted, among other things, a variant of the national anthem of modern North American campuses: "Hey hey, ho ho, Charles Murray has got to go."
Later the same month, it was the Canadian professor and psychologist Jordan Peterson's turn. He was meant to be lecturing at McMaster University. But students crowded around the front and sides of the lecture hall as he attempted, in his learned and professorial way, to enlighten the students on a variety of issues. Disruptive students, however, had apparently decided that Peterson was "anti-trans", among other things. So they let off sirens and banged tins and repeatedly shouted, "Shut this down. Shut this down."
Peterson is, it seems to have been decided, meant to be a person of privilege; trans people are meant to be part of a persecuted minority.
Once again, therefore, the disruption and intimidation were portrayed to seem justified.
As at Middlebury, the college authorities seemed to have no desire to discipline students who know so little of true liberalism that they should ordinarily have no place at an institution of learning. But of course, at these institutions, as at so many before them, the adults appear to have vacated the campus.
Students who want to protect their ears from white men telling them anything with which they do not already agree may cause these ugly and totalitarian scenes. They do not occur, notably, when truly ugly and totalitarian views emerge.
Although students up and down the land claim that words wound and even kill when they come from people who have never wounded or killed anyone, it seems that these or other students remain silent when, for example, a former Black Panther associate and supporter of innumerable totalitarian regimes, such as Angela Davis, turns up to speak.
At the end of the same month in which Murray and Peterson were prevented from speaking, Davis was invited to address Marquette University. Because she does all the boilerplate stuff such as stressing how various rights movements "make a positive difference in the world", and otherwise telling students what many of them want to hear, her lecture at Marquette went off without interruption. Everyone in the packed hall listened politely and applauded her sentiments.
In other words, the approved event was not a lecture; it was a political rally.
Davis has certainly little or nothing new to say that would educate or challenge a hall full of students. Her narrative, like that of so many approved speakers, embeds the idea that there are people with privilege and that they should be persuaded or forced to share that privilege with everyone else.
So it is probably as well that people realise where this narrative leads. When you consistently break down a society along racial and sectarian lines for short-term political and personal gain, there is bound to be a group that must in the end lose out. That group may just turn out to be a minority as well.
Sure enough, the same month that Angela Davis was applauded and Peterson and Murray were silenced, some pamphlets turned up on campus at the University of Illinois at Chicago. Like so many leaflets before them, these talked about the scourge of "privilege". And who did these pamphlets identify as the people with the most privilege? Why, the Jews of course. Or, as the pamphlets put it, "Ending white privilege... Starts with ending Jewish privilege."
As with the Occupy Wall Street movement a few years ago, which also ended up with anti-Semitism at its core, who could seriously not have seen that this would be where all this would end? At present, the people who preach tolerance in the United States and Canada are turning out to be the least tolerant.
And the people who complain of discrimination turn out to be opening the door to practitioners of the oldest discrimination of all.
*Douglas Murray, British author, commentator and public affairs analyst, is based in London, England.
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The Omani Succession Envelope, Please
Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/April 04/17
Foreign Policy
Sultan Qaboos is ailing, and no one knows who will take over his role as the last word on all aspects of Oman's regional policy.
The name of the next ruler of Oman is written on a piece of paper in a sealed envelope kept in the royal palace in the capital of Muscat. It sounds like a bizarre Arab variation of an American television game show, but it isn't. There is also a second envelope, held in a different royal palace in the southern city of Salalah. Apparently, it contains the same name, in case the first envelope cannot be found when the ruling incumbent, the ailing 76-year-old Sultan Qaboos bin Said, dies.
At this point, the question of how succession in this Arab Gulf sultanate will unfold becomes more than a little uncertain. The most common version is that each envelope contains two names, the first and second choices of Sultan Qaboos on who should replace him. But another version suggests that the Muscat envelope contains one name and the Salalah envelope contains another. According to the generally accepted wisdom, when Qaboos dies -- and he has been suffering from colon cancer since at least 2014 -- a council made up of his relatives will meet to choose his successor. Only if they can't agree on a choice after three days do the envelopes come into play. Wags suggest that members of the ruling family will be so concerned about the post-mortem legitimacy bestowed by the late sultan that they will ask to see the envelopes before making their selection.
The Al Bu Saidi dynasty in Oman has ruled for 14 generations. Surprisingly for such a long-lived dynasty, the succession mechanism is not well-established. Qaboos himself came to power in 1970 when the British backed a coup against his clinically paranoid father, Sultan Said bin Taimur. According to the obituary of one of the plotters, when told he had to go, the sultan angrily tried to pull a gun from under his robes, accidentally shooting himself in the leg. He was flown to London to live in luxury at the Dorchester hotel, where he died two years later. Sultan Qaboos, briefly married to a cousin in the 1970s, has no heirs. Hence the envelopes.
Oman has relished a quirky policy independence under Qaboos. The sultanate is clearly not a major player by virtue of size or wealth, but its ruler has endeavored to make Oman relevant. Although a member of both the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council, Oman positioned itself as a mediator between Iran and the United States, first brokering hostage releases and then becoming the venue for the initial talks that led to the 2015 nuclear deal. According to some accounts, it was the peripatetic Omani minister in charge of foreign affairs, Yusuf bin Alawi, who unintentionally tipped off the Israelis that the contacts were occurring, not realizing that Israel wasn't at that time in the loop.
How much of Oman's diplomatic straddling is attributable to the character of Qaboos rather than his country's broader national interests is debatable. Qaboos and many Omanis are Ibadi Muslims, which puts distance into the relationships with Sunni Arab Gulf states. However, especially if expatriates are included, the majority of Oman's population is Sunni. Shiites are a small but commercially successful minority.
This month may have seen the emergence of a front-runner in the race to succeed Qaboos. On March 2, it was announced that the sultan's cousin Asad bin Tariq, whose name is widely assumed to appear in the envelopes, had been appointed deputy prime minister for international relations and cooperation affairs. Further indication of Asad's rising stature came this week, when Qaboos sent him as the Omani representative to the Arab League summit in Jordan. Once commander of the Omani army's tanks and already the sultan's "special representative," Asad's new position as deputy prime minister has no obvious responsibilities -- but it may put him ahead in the succession stakes.
Asad's rivals are judged to be his half-brothers, Haitham bin Tariq, the heritage and culture minister, and Shihab bin Tariq, a former commander of the Omani navy. All three men are in their 60s, and it was their sister who was once married to Qaboos.
Reading the mind of Sultan Qaboos is complicated. When he came to power, there were just three schools and a few miles of paved road in the country. Now his nation of around 3.3 million people, with modest oil and gas reserves, is widely judged one of the better places to live in the Persian Gulf region. Provided you don't want political power, it is good to be an Omani: The country provides strong education and social services, and some favored Omanis have become fabulously rich while developing the economy.
Qaboos is no democrat. Even within the cabinet, he concentrates power in his hands, serving as prime minister, defense minister, foreign minister, finance minister, and governor of the central bank. He decides on every shift in policy. In his absence -- last year he went to Germany for two months of medical treatment and then became a recluse in one of his palaces in Oman for another three months -- no decisions of significance are made.
His closest advisors are security and intelligence professionals in the so-called Royal Office, headed by Gen. Sultan bin Mohammed al-Numani. According to the envelope theory, the general will lead the army council that will rule for three days while the family council works out who is going to be the next leader.
Sultan Qaboos has taken a strategic view of the region and Oman's role in it and hasn't neglected his ties with foreign intelligence officials, either. At one point, he used to send his personal jet to London to collect a retired Middle East director of the British foreign intelligence service, MI6, whose analysis he particularly valued. When Prince Charles, the British heir apparent, visited Muscat last November, he brought the current head of MI6 to his four-hour meeting with Qaboos. Washington's contacts are also good but lack that sort of intimacy.
Yet the sultan's worldview can appear eccentric and often infuriates Oman's notional allies in the Gulf and the West. When suicide bombers attacked the law courts in the Syrian capital of Damascus two weeks ago, leaving scores of dead and injured, Muscat sent a message of condolence to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad -- a step that many in Washington and other capitals saw as an unnecessary normalization of relations with a despot they would like to see overthrown. Muscat has also been irritated by the Saudi and Emirati war in Yemen and has provided some diplomatic, and perhaps material, support to Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. A late arriving member of the anti-Islamic State coalition, Oman is actually much more concerned about the safe havens for al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in parts of southern Yemen.
The sultan was probably hoping for a payoff for enabling the Barack Obama-era U.S. diplomacy with Iran to secure a nuclear deal. But nothing significant has come from Tehran other than a visit in February from President Hassan Rouhani. And not even a telephone conversation between President Donald Trump and the sultan has yet to be reported. (Memo to the White House: Oman is on the southern side of the strategic Strait of Hormuz and provides air bases and logistical hubs to the U.S. and British militaries, and the new port at Duqm is capable of handling U.S. aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines.)
There is a sense that Sultan Qaboos judges all his potential successors as much lesser men and is said to fear meddling in the process by outsiders. He is particularly suspicious of the United Arab Emirates, which, despite its reputation in Washington as being the regional adult, has been accused by Muscat of running spy networks in the Omani military.
If Sultan Qaboos is not impressed by the possible successors within his family, could he perhaps cast a wider net? He could potentially look to one of the three pillars of Oman's political infrastructure -- the tribal sheikhs, the security establishment, or the business community -- for a candidate. Even if he doesn't, these groups will seek to exert influence on the family council by backing one of the current contenders or suggesting another person entirely, possibly a next-generation member of the Al Bu Saidi family. A 2007 U.S. diplomatic cable, released by WikiLeaks, pondered the strengths of Asad's 37-year-old son, Taimur, describing him as "personable, affable...[and] markedly overweight but apparently vigorous."
Such a choice would imitate events in Qatar, where the 36-year-old Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad is emir, and Saudi Arabia, where Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, 31, seems likely to be the next king. Having often regarded his neighboring Arab states with near disdain, it would be suitably ironic if Sultan Qaboos judged their systems worthy of trying at home.
**Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute, and coauthor of its 2017 Transition Paper "Rebuilding Alliances and Countering Threats in the Gulf."

Erdogan Is Dividing Turkey Against Itself
Soner Cagaptay/Atlantic/April 04/17
A demonize-and-polarize strategy has worked for the Turkish president in the past, but it may ultimately tear his country apart.
Since 2003, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a guiding light for the ascendant global class of anti-elite, nationalist, conservative leaders. And all along, he has played the political underdog, rallying support by demonizing those who oppose him. Just weeks ahead of a constitutional referendum that, if passed, would further consolidate his authoritarian grip on the country, he has even taken to internationalizing this strategy, lashing out at various European leaders as "Nazis" for criticizing him.
It may be a reasonable gamble from his perspective; after all, it has brought him success in the past. He has boosted his popularity by relying on a steady supply of domestic adversaries to cast as the latest "enemy of the people." But this has also polarized his society to such an extent that even the security services, the traditional bulwark of Turkish unity, have become politicized and weakened at a time when the country faces violence on multiple fronts -- along with the implosion of Turkey's relationships in Europe. Amid a divisive campaign ahead of the April 16 referendum, terrorist groups ranging from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to the Islamic State exploit these divisions to turn Turks even more bitterly against each other.
Today, as evidenced by surveys measuring expected support for Erdogan in the referendum, Turkey is about evenly split between pro- and anti-Erdogan factions: the former, a conservative right-wing coalition, believes that Turkey is a paradise; the latter, a loose group of leftists, secularists, liberals, Alevis (liberal Muslims), and Kurds, think they live in hell.
For years, Turkey's vaunted national-security institutions, including the military and the police, had helped the country navigate its perilous political fissures, first in the civil war-like street clashes pitting the left against the right in the 1970s, and later in the full-blown Kurdish nationalist insurgency and terror attacks led by the PKK in the 1990s. However illiberal and brutal their methods, including several coups d'état and police crackdowns, the military and police kept Turkey from imploding. But this has changed since Erdogan's unprecedented purge of the security services in the aftermath of the failed coup of July 15.
At the same time, Turkey's involvement in the Syrian civil war is having unexpected, destabilizing repercussions back home, which are also severely undermining the country's ability to withstand societal polarization. Ankara has sought to oust the Assad regime since the outbreak of civil war in Syria in 2011. After sending troops into northern Syria in August 2016, Turkey has also conducted military operations against both ISIS and the Kurdish Party for Democratic Unity (PYD). Accordingly, Ankara now has the distinction of being hated by all major parties in the Syrian civil war -- Assad, ISIS, and the Kurds. Syria will no doubt continue trying to punish Turkish citizens for their country's actions: Turkey has blamed the Assad regime for a 2013 set of car bombings in Reyhanli, in the south of Turkey, that killed 51 people, though the Syrian government denied involvement.
Erdogan's Syria policy is also a driver of ISIS and PKK terror attacks in Turkey. Each time Ankara makes a gain against the PYD in Syria, the PKK targets Turkey. And each ISIS attack in Turkey similarly seems to be a direct response to a Turkish attack against jihadists across the border. For instance, the June 2016 ISIS attack on the Istanbul airport, which killed 45 people, occurred just after Ankara's Syrian-Arab proxies took territory from the terrorist group. The New Year's Eve attack on an Istanbul nightclub that claimed at least 39 victims came just as Turkey-backed forces launched a campaign to take the strategic Syrian city of al-Bab from ISIS.
ISIS and the PKK represent the extremes of Turkey's two halves, each intent on widening the country's political chasm -- a chasm that, in turn, prevents the country from holding a candid debate on its Syria policy, and that policy's impact on domestic security. Consider ISIS's chosen targets: venues like the nightclub, frequented by secular and liberal Turks; foreign tourists, who have been targeted in multiple attacks in Istanbul; Kurds and leftists like those killed in a July 2015 twin suicide bombing in the Turkish border town of Suruc; as well as liberal Muslim sects like the Alevis, a key bloc in the anti-Erdogan opposition and the main victims in the most devastating ISIS attack in Turkey to date, which killed 103 people at a peace rally in Ankara in October 2015.
By targeting foreigners and members of the anti-Erdogan bloc, ISIS seems to be sending a message to pro-Erdogan nationalists that the jihadists do not pose a danger to them -- that they are focused instead on "cleansing" the country of the kind of Western influence the Islamist government also sees as a threat. But as ISIS continues targeting Turkey's anti-Erdogan elements, the PKK and its offshoots will continue reciprocating. Kurdish militants routinely conduct deadly attacks on police and military forces. Their own message is to the country's anti-Erdogan bloc -- that as the Turkish leader consolidates his power, the PKK, however unpleasant, is their only hope against "Erdogan's troops."
Erdogan's policies may hasten this trend. At present, as seen in pro-Erdogan media, his government recognizes those killed by the PKK as "martyrs," granting them special status. He has so far refused to endow those killed by ISIS with such special recognition. Left unchanged, this policy could help create a two-tier taxonomy for deaths from terror attacks, further entrenching Turkey's divisions along a PKK-ISIS axis.
The failed coup, meanwhile, gave Erdogan license to consolidate power over the military and police forces, pulling them further onto the pro-Erdogan side of Turkey's divisions. The next time the military intervenes in politics in Turkey, it will probably not be to topple Erdogan, but to defend him. The 22-year-old man who assassinated the Russian ambassador in Ankara on December 19, a member of Ankara's elite police force who came of age in Erdogan's Turkey, is a sign of the politicization of the police forces as well as the consequences of Erdogan's Syria policy. This was an explicitly political murder: Before pulling the trigger, he declared he was punishing his victim for Moscow's policy in Syria.
For Erdogan, chaos may breed opportunity. If the constitutional referendum passes, it would vastly expand the powers of the office of the president, making Erdogan head of government, head of state, and head of his ruling AKP party, consolidating power over the entire country. (Currently, he is only head of state, and as such lacks de jure control over the government. The country's constitution also stipulates that the president be a nonpartisan figure, barring him from formally heading the ruling AKP.) But even if he does win, only half of the country will embrace his agenda. The other half will work to undermine it politically -- and in the case of the PKK and other leftist militant groups, violently.
Turkey is a country divided against itself. If terror attacks, societal polarization, and violence catapult it into an unfortunate civil war, the country will have no one to save it from itself.
**Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.