LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

March 15/16

 

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.march15.16.htm

 

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Bible Quotations For Today
The world cannot hate you, but it hates me because I testify against it that its works are evil.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 07/01-13:"After this Jesus went about in Galilee. He did not wish to go about in Judea because the Jews were looking for an opportunity to kill him. Now the Jewish festival of Booths was near.
So his brothers said to him, ‘Leave here and go to Judea so that your disciples also may see the works you are doing; for no one who wants to be widely known acts in secret. If you do these things, show yourself to the world.’(For not even his brothers believed in him.). Jesus said to them, ‘My time has not yet come, but your time is always here. The world cannot hate you, but it hates me because I testify against it that its works are evil. Go to the festival yourselves. I am not going to this festival, for my time has not yet fully come.’After saying this, he remained in Galilee.
But after his brothers had gone to the festival, then he also went, not publicly but as it were in secret. The Jews were looking for him at the festival and saying, ‘Where is he?’ And there was considerable complaining about him among the crowds. While some were saying, ‘He is a good man’, others were saying, ‘No, he is deceiving the crowd.’Yet no one would speak openly about him for fear of the Jews."

We are debtors, not to the flesh, to live according to the flesh for if you live according to the flesh, you will die
Letter to the Romans 08/12-18:"We are debtors, not to the flesh, to live according to the flesh for if you live according to the flesh, you will die; but if by the Spirit you put to death the deeds of the body, you will live. For all who are led by the Spirit of God are children of God. For you did not receive a spirit of slavery to fall back into fear, but you have received a spirit of adoption. When we cry, ‘Abba! Father!’it is that very Spirit bearing witness with our spirit that we are children of God, and if children, then heirs, heirs of God and joint heirs with Christ if, in fact, we suffer with him so that we may also be glorified with him. I consider that the sufferings of this present time are not worth comparing with the glory about to be revealed to us."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 15/16
How Israel missed an opportunity to cut off Hezbollah's head/Yossi Melman/Jerusalem Post/March 15/16

Farewell, March 14/Sara Assaf/Now Lebanon/March 14/16

Iran’s Free Hand in Testing Dangerous Ballistic Missiles/By Joseph A. Klein /Canada Free Press/March 14, 2016
Elevated security for Jerusalem Marathon. Alert for Palestinian car bombs/DEBKAfile Special Report March 13, 2016
Mr Obama, We are Not ‘Free Riders’/Prince Turki Al-Faisal/Asharq Alawsat/March 14/16
Obama’s Bubble/Tariq Alhomayed//Asharq Alawsat/March 14/16
'This isn't a lone wolf intifada, it's a Hamas intifada'/Ariela Ringel Hoffman/Ynetnews/March 14/16
Yemen and Lebanon: Testing grounds for regional and international intentions/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/March 14/16
Syria – the seven pillars of failure/Chris Doyle/Al Arabiya/March 14/16
Mashhad Appointments Show Tightened Hardliner Grip/Mehdi Khalaji/ The Washington Institute/March 14, 2016
U.S. Military Aid to Israel: Debating an Increase/David Makovsky/Washington Institute/March 15/16

 

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on March 15/16
How Israel missed an opportunity to cut off Hezbollah's head
Farewell, March 14
Bahrain deports several Lebanese for Hezbollah links
Soaid: Unity Shown on March 14, 2005 Needed to Confront Regional Challenges
Berri Says Government Landfills Plan 'Best that Can be Reached'
Army: Missiles Found on Lebanon-Serbia Flight for Training Purposes
Geagea Says March 14 'Not at its Best'
You Stink' Blocks Roads to Protest 'Rubbish' Government
Aoun rejects electing president who lacks wide representation
Aoun: March 14 Has Collapsed and Illegitimate Parliament Can't Elect Legitimate President
Hariri Travels to Paris after Visiting Yarze in Show of Support to Army
Salam Requests Security Forces to Monitor Implementation of Trash Plan to Avoid Unrest
Army Raids Houses in Sidon after Arrests in Nabatiyeh
Sami Gemayel inaugurates waste management plant in Bikfaya
Angelina Jolie arrives in Beirut to check on Syrian refugee camps
Mufti Shaar from Saudi Embassy: Lebanon will not be a thorn in the side of Arabs


Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 15/16

HRW urges Egypt to annul jail terms for Christian teens
Syria jet purportedly downed by surface-to-air missile
Syria’s ‘moment of truth’ as Geneva talks begin
Kerry: Two state solution needs ‘global’ push
Second round of Iran elections set for April 29
Iraq medics screen 800 people after chemical attack
U.S. stages 15 strikes against ISIS in Iraq, Syria: statement
Russia ready to cooperate with US-led coalition in fight for Syria’s Raqqa
Iran welcomes Vietnamese leader, looks to boost trade
ISIS woman killed recently in Saudi shrouded in mystery
Engineers race to stop collapse of massive Mosul dam
Two UAE fighter pilots killed in jet crash in Yemen
‘Iran spy ring’ to appear in Saudi court
ISIS returns to Iraqi town
Turkey strikes Kurdish targets in Iraq after blast
Palestinian-American member of ISIS surrenders: Iraqi general
Indonesia detains 14 people allegedly heading to Syria

 

Links From Jihad Watch Site for March 15/16
Iran’s elections: Contrary to media reports, “in the Assembly of Experts, the radicals won 75 percent of the seats”
Virginia-born Muslim captured in Iraq while waging jihad for the Islamic State
Convicted rapist hunted by police was able to flee UK to join the Islamic State after his early release from jail
Raymond Ibrahim: “Islam Hates Us” More Than You Know
Raymond Ibrahim: Muslims Claim Lion’s Share of Christian Victims
Academic stresses sociopolitical and psychological theory, ignores Sharia, regarding why Muslims ban churches
Hugh Fitzgerald: “Raping me is his prayer to God. It’s allowed. It’s halal.”
AP’s “Refugee shot by Salt Lake City police” is Muslim migrant who was beating homeless man with metal bar
Video׃ Turkish Muslims want to kill non-believers: “I shall stab them one by one wherever I find them”
Italy: Archbishop calls for construction of mosque, Islamic celebrations in schools

 

How Israel missed an opportunity to cut off Hezbollah's head
Yossi Melman/Jerusalem Post/March 15/16

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/03/14/yossi-melman-how-israel-missed-an-opportunity-to-cut-off-hezbollahs-head/

'Hezbollah planned to assassinate Olmert as revenge for hit on arch-terrorist Mughniyeh'
Nasrallah: Israel will always be 'haunted by the blood' of Imad Mughniyeh
During May 2000, the IDF's Military Intelligence branch obtained reports and photographs from observation points and aerial patrols which proved that senior Hezbollah officials were coming from their Beirut headquarters to tour south Lebanon.
The goal of the visit was to check on the IDF's preparations to withdraw from the security belt in south Lebanon. Hezbollah believed that the IDF would withdraw in July of the same year, and the visits by the organization's senior figures were being taken in order to come up with a plan to sabotage the withdrawal and launch an attack on the retreating troops.
Military Intelligence and Mossad managed to gather highly accurate intel on the Shi'ite organization's intentions. "They wanted to turn the withdrawal into an inferno," says Brig.-Gen. (res.) Amos Gilboa, who wrote a new book that explores the issue, Dawn, the real story of the IDF's withdrawal from Lebanon, (Dawn was the IDF's codename for the operation to withdraw from Lebanon). The "repertoire" that Hezbollah's commanders planned included rocket launches, gunfire at IDF soldiers, setting off of roadside bombs and carbombs, and sending out suicide bombers.
The IDF began a series of discussions about what could be done to stop senior Hezbollah officials from patrolling in south Lebanon. On May 21, Military Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Amos Malka held a small meeting. Among those at the meeting were "Little Mofaz," (Shlomo, the brother of then-IDF chief Shaul Mofaz), who served as the head of the terror department in Military Intelligence's research division. The book quotes Malka as saying, "Mofaz presented information that the most senior officials in Hezbollah are coming to south Lebanon. It's a certainty, and we have already made preliminary operational and intelligence preparations among ourselves. This is a one-time opportunity to assassinate them, or at least, their most senior member. We'll present this to the IDF chief." Malka intended to ask Mofaz, Shlomo's brother. "Shlomo," Gilboa writes, "thought deeply about it and suggested that we pass the responsibility to decide from his brother the IDF chief, to the prime minister or defense minister," who was then Ehud Barak.
Gadi Eisenkot, current IDF chief of staff who was then Barak's military secretary and was privy to the classified information, said that Barak was supposed to be in the North the next day, at a ceremony to inaugurate a park. It was decided that after the ceremony, he would arrive at brigade headquarters in the moshav of Shomera. The goal of the consultation was to make a decision whether to take advantage of the opportunity and try to assassinate the senior Hezbollah officials.
What Gilboa does not write in his book, and has already been published in the past by the writer of these lines, is that the senior officials in question were "the Fab Five" of Hezbollah's military wing. This included the head of the military wing, Imad Mughniyeh, who Israel, it was claimed, had failed to assassinate on a number of occasions and in the end, succeeded in killing in Damascus in 2008; his deputies, Talal Hamia and Mustafa Badr a-Din, (Mughniyeh's cousin and brother-in-law), who serves as the Shi'te Lebanese group's military commander today, and two others. One of them was a senior officer in Iran's Revolutionary Guards who was supervising Hezbollah plans against Israel.
In the early evening, Eisenkot informed Barak of the issue, and he determined that the next morning, when they met at the helicopter launch pad at the Knesset in Jerusalem, he would update him on the details. At the meeting at the launch pad, "Gadi got into a car with the prime minister and the defense minister," Gilboa writes, "and updated him on the planned assassination of senior Hezbollah officials that Malka was suggesting. Barak listened, and his face lit up when he heard the name of the most senior Hezbollah official," (meaning Mughniyeh).
Following the conversation, Barak and Eisenkot flew to the North. Barak took part in the park inauguration ceremony and afterward continued on to brigade headquarters in Shomera. There, he was awaited by a few senior IDF officers, including Malka, Shlomo Mofaz, division commander Moshe Kaplinsky, Col. Benny Gantz, who was then the head of the IDF's liaison unit in Lebanon, and more.
Malka presented the issue of the assassination, but it was clear to those at the meeting that Barak was distracted. He was concerned with the broader problems of planning the IDF's withdrawal from Lebanon. After a few minutes, Barak stopped Malka. "Continue with the intelligence gathering against the object of the assassination," he told Malka. To all of those present, his meaning was clear. Barak did not authorize the assassination, or in Gilboa's words, "The assassination that the meeting was meant to discuss was thrown in the garbage."
IDF officers present at the meeting, as well as senior Mossad officials that knew of the plan, were disappointed. Everything was ready for the assassination operation. The intelligence was accurate and updated. The operational feasibility was high. Drones and fighter jets were in the air. If Barak had given his approval, the entire leadership of Hezbollah's military command would have risen skyward. Hezbollah would have been beaten and in shock, and it would have taken the group time to recover from the blow. A golden opportunity was wasted. It would take Israel eight more years and a war (The Second Lebanon War) until the intelligence information and the operational feasibility would meet again and would enable the assassination of Mughniyeh, who was then the most wanted terrorist in the world, not just by Israel, but also by the US.
According to foreign reports, the assassination of Mughniyeh in February 2008 on the outskirts of Damascus was mainly a "blue-and-white" Mossad operation, that was aided by the CIA and carried out in coordination with it in a shared operations room.
The CIA's contribution was to smuggle in the explosives used in the car bomb that blew up next to Mughniyeh's car parked near his safehouse in the Syrian capital. Mughniyeh was responsible for, among other things, the planning and activating of the terror attack at the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, which took place 24 years ago this month, in which 29 people were killed, including four Israeli diplomats, one of whom was the Mossad's representative.
Instead of an assassination in south Lebanon in the summer of 2000, the IDF was forced to carry out what it called "an intelligence exercise," equivalent to a "dry exercise" - an exercise in which all the elements of an operation are put into action, but without actual fire.
Barak refused to approve the action because he feared the ramifications it would have on his bigger plan. At the meeting in Shomera, and in general after he was chosen to be prime minister in 1999, his interest was to fulfill his election promise: to bring the IDF back from its 18 year presence in the Lebanese mud.
In the beginning, Barak hoped that the withdrawal from Lebanon would be carried out through an agreement or understanding reached between Israel and Syria as mediated by US President Bill Clinton. However, in 2000, after just a few months, he understood that the chances of reaching such an agreement were slim, and he ordered then IDF chief of staff Mofaz to prepare for a withdrawal without an agreement.
Barak kept the decision of the timing of the withdrawal close to his vest. It was dictated mainly by the rapid collapse of the South Lebanon Army (SLA), which the IDF gave control of some of the outposts it evacuated. When Barak understood that the SLA could not hold the outposts, he gathered the commanders of the IDF on the evening of May 22. It was on the same day in which he had earlier rejected the operation to assassinate senior Hezbollah officials. In the meeting he announced that he had ordered IDF chief of staff Mofaz and OC Northern Command Gabi Ashkenazi to complete "their preparations to withdraw all IDF forces and prepare them to redeploy starting tonight."
"Mofaz almost fell off his chair he was so shocked," Gilboa writes. This was the height of the drama whose director and lead actor was Barak. Eventually, due to logistical necessities, Ashkenazi succeeded in delaying the date by 24 hours.
Thanks to in house and external compartmentalization, the IDF withdrew without casualties. As a strategic decision, the withdrawal could be considered the crowning glory of Barak's achievements as prime minister and defense minister. In all of the other fields: security, political and social, history will judge him unfavorably.
The price of the withdrawal was indeed heavy. On the one hand, it is an impressive achievement. Hezbollah did not succeed, as it had planned, to sabotage the withdrawal. However, the withdrawal revealed Israel's betrayal of the 2,500 SLA soldiers that had worked with them for years, in cooperation and coordination, who all of a sudden, in the dead of night, found themselves running for their lives with their families to Israel.
And in the shadow of these events, the unanswered question remains: Did Barak err by not ordering the assassination of Mughniyeh and the other senior Hezbollah officials, which would have changed the reality between Israel and the Shi'ite organization from Lebanon?
http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/How-Israel-missed-an-opportunity-to-cut-off-Hezbollahs-head-447873

 

Bahrain deports several Lebanese for Hezbollah links
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Monday, 14 March 2016/Bahrain on Monday announced it had deported several Lebanese for Hezbollah links, the Gulf state's Interior Ministry said in a tweet on Monday. The move came after Saudi Arabia on Sunday said it will deport anyone sympathizing with the militant Hezbollah group after the Arab League declared the movement as “terrorist,” Al Arabiya News Channel reported. An Interior Ministry statement carried by the state news agency SPA said that Saudis and expatriates would be subjected to “severe penalties” under the kingdom's regulations and anti-terrorism laws. The Arab League on Friday formally branded Hezbollah a terrorist organization, a move that raises concerns of deepening divisions among Arab countries and ramps up the pressure on the Shiite group, which is fighting on the side of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. The Arab League’s decision followed the blacklisting of Hezbollah by Gulf states.
Shiite-led uprising
Dozens of people have been put on trial and handed lengthy jail terms in Sunni-ruled Bahrain - shaken by unrest since it quelled a month-long Shiite-led uprising demanding reforms five years ago. The first defendant was arrested in the Shiite village of Sitra where police found “firearms and explosives” in his apartment, said prosecutor Ahmed al-Hammadi. He said the man was planning to use the weapons to carry out a “terrorist” plot. The other two were jailed for their involvement in the same case. Bahrain last week jailed three people for life and sentenced another to 15 years for attacking a bus during a protest in a Shiite village two years ago. Tiny but strategic Bahrain, which is connected to regional Sunni powerhouse Saudi Arabia by a causeway, lies across the Gulf from Shiite Iran and is home to the US Fifth Fleet. Despite the crackdown on the 2011 uprising, protesters continue to clash frequently with police in Shiite villages outside the capital Manama.(With AFP)

 

Farewell, March 14
Sara Assaf/Now Lebanon/March 14/16
I was one of many who took to the streets on March 14, 2005, with over one million Lebanese people demanding the end of the Syrian hegemony over Lebanon. One of the many who attended the funerals of all March 14 martyrs, who never missed the annual February 14 memorial, and the annual March 14 celebrations, be it in Martyrs’ Square or Biel or Bristol. I’m one of many who believed in a cross-confessional alliance, where Muslims and Christians unite for a better Lebanon. I’m one of many who worked on the ground with March 14 youth organizations, and saw the feelings of solidarity grow between a new generation from different confessions and backgrounds. I’m one of many who believed in Saad Hariri as a leader eager to instigate change, and initiate a new form of liberalism, away from the mercantilism and opportunism of traditional Lebanese politics. I’m one of many who supported his ideas on women’s rights and civil marriage, and always found excuses for his never-ending concessions, from the Saudi-Syrian accord to participating in a coalition government and a joint dialogue with Hezbollah. I’m one of many who believed in Samir Geagea as the principled leader who would always keep focus on the ultimate objective, no matter what the difficulties or the mistakes being made around him. I’m one of many who stood against him when he endorsed the Orthodox electoral law because it was the antidote to March 14 values, and one of many who stood beside him when he refused to participate in a folkloric dialogue and an ineffective government with Hezbollah, because those were also antidotes to March 14 values. I’m one of many who believed in principles like sovereignty, pluralism and justice, and thought we had a coalition, which was not strong enough to fight Hezbollah, but capable enough to at least stand its ground in the face of the armed party, whose paramilitary wing has become stronger than the Lebanese army and whose political wing is slowly dominating all of the state's institutions.
But today, I’m one of many to look at the failed quasi-state of Lebanon and realize that the March 14 coalition has reached a point where it is not even capable of assembling its political entities under one roof to commemorate March 14, pay respects to its martyrs, and come up with a unified statement addressing the many current challenges facing Lebanon. We have reached a point where the two main leaders of March 14, Saad Hariri and Samir Geagea, are confronting each other by endorsing two different candidates for Lebanon’s Presidency, both of whom are members of the March 8 coalition and are close allies of Hezbollah, Iran and Syria. Truth is, over the past 11 years, the March 14 coalition had to face Hezbollah’s fierce anti-revolution plan, which began with targeted assassinations and was followed by the destructive war in 2006, the military invasion of west Beirut in 2008, the overthrow of Hariri’s government in 2011, and the use of internal sectarian tensions and security threats to tip the political balance in their favor from 2005 until 2016. I’m one of many who believed that a united March 14 could have continued to wage a peaceful and efficient resistance against Hezbollah today, and that the vacuum left by the breakdown of March 14 will only help the March 8 coalition dominate Lebanon even more. A quick look at the local and regional context clearly shows how much a pluralistic, liberal, and state-driven coalition is essential to counter the radical Shiite terrorism on one side, and radical Sunni terrorism on the other. But today, I’m also one of many whose only choice is to bid farewell to March 14. And I am doing so with great sadness, which has little to do with nostalgia for a gorgeous day that made history in Lebanon, and plenty to do with fear of living in a country that has no place for truly secular minds.
Eleven years after the Cedar Revolution, I’m one of many who came to realize that if you are not Christian enough to join the Lebanese Forces, Sunni enough to join the Future Movement, Druze enough to join the Progressive Socialist Party, or Shitte enough to switch sides and join March 8, then you can no longer have a sense of belonging in this country post-March 14.
And that, by itself, is a farewell.
Not only to March 14, but to the Lebanon we dreamed of.
And we shall never let go of our dreams.
**Sara Assaf is a political activist. She tweets @saraassaf.


Soaid: Unity Shown on March 14, 2005 Needed to Confront Regional Challenges
Naharnet/March 15/16/March 14 General Secretariat coordinator Fares Soaid acknowledged on Monday that the coalition is “passing through a crisis”, urging its members to set national interests above partisan ones. He declared: “The region is changing and we are now in the greatest need of the same internal unity that was demonstrated on March 14, 2005.” “There should be no other interests besides Lebanon's,” he added during a press conference marking eleven years since the formation of the March 14 alliance. He urged against “surrendering” Lebanon to Hizbullah and foreign powers, saying that “coexistence between legitimate powers and illegal arms is impossible. This has been the case since 1969 and later culminated in civil war in 1975.” “We will once again stand in the way of efforts to create divisions among the Lebanese,” Soaid vowed. Major achievements cannot be accomplished through pursuing partisan interests, he stressed before reporters. He lamented the absence of March 14 coalition members to mark the eleventh anniversary of the alliance's formation, saying that they are busy pursuing their interests and embroiled in differences over the presidential elections.These divisions fall in the hands of Hizbullah and foreign meddlers, he warned. “We can no longer continue along this path,” he declared. The “intifada against illegal arms” cannot take place through the pursuit of political gains, Soaid said. The cure for the March 14's ailment lies in embracing a joint vision for the country for both Muslims and Christians and in respecting the state institutions. The essence of the Cedar Revolution is the people, not party interests. The March 14 coalition was formed in wake of the February 14, 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which was widely blamed on Syria. Popular protests against Syria's influence in Lebanon erupted in wake of the murder with demonstrators demanding the withdrawal of Syrian troops from the country. The rallies culminated in a massive protest in downtown Beirut on March 14, 2005. Syria withdrew its troops from Lebanon in April later that year after nearly 30 years in the country.

Berri Says Government Landfills Plan 'Best that Can be Reached'

Naharnet/March 15/16/Speaker Nabih Berri has defended the government's decision to create a temporary solution for the country's eight-month trash crisis, saying “it's the best that can be reached.”Following an extraordinary session on Saturday, the cabinet decided to temporarily reopen the Naameh landfill, whose closure in July last year sparked the country's waste crisis. The government also decided to open the Bourj Hammoud and Costa Brava landfills, which like Naameh lie outside Beirut.The temporary solution will last four years and by then a permanent solution will be in place, it said. Speaking to his visitors in Ain el-Tineh, Berri urged the government to immediately start with the implementation of its plan. “There is a disaster on the streets as a result of more than 300,000 tons of (uncollected) waste,” said Berri, whose remarks were published in local dailies on Monday. “There is no justification for the objections being raised here and there," he said. Berri told his visitors that he would stress during the next round of all-party talks to revive the parliament. Asked whether he had high hopes that a president would be elected next month as claimed by al-Mustaqbal Movement chief Saad Hariri, Berri said: “We can't stand idle.”“All sides should be aware that holding the elections is a necessity,” the speaker added. He warned that the March 8 alliance would be the biggest loser if it didn't take the opportunity to elect a president.The two main candidates for the elections are Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun and Marada Movement leader lawmaker Suleiman Franjieh, both of them March 8 officials.

Army: Missiles Found on Lebanon-Serbia Flight for Training Purposes
Associated Press/Naharnet/March 15/16/Two missiles with explosive heads that were found on a flight from Lebanon to Serbia had been used as part of a U.S. military training for the Lebanese army and were being shipped back after the exercise concluded, the military said in a statement on Monday.“Missiles found on a flight from Lebanon to Serbia were in the army's possession for training purposes,” the statement said. “They were being shipped back to the U.S.,” it added. “The two missiles that were found on a passenger flight from Lebanon to the United States via Serbia were part of a U.S. military aid for the Lebanese army. They were handed to Lebanon in September for training,” well informed sources confirmed to al-Joumhouria daily. “The armor-piercing missiles were being shipped back to the U.S. after the army completed the training. The process was carried out within the legal formalities and under the cognition of the concerned Lebanese and American authorities,” the sources stressed. Serbian investigators remain unconvinced on Monday, saying police found traces of suspected explosive materials on the cargo, The Associated Press reported. The Serbian army said the missiles were being sent from Beirut to the American company that produced them. It said the return was in accordance "with administrative and legal measures after the training ended."The Serbian public prosecutors' office said Monday in a statement emailed to the AP news agency that it was investigating findings by border police that the packages "are suspected to contain explosive materials." It said the investigation also focused on where the missiles came from and what was their final destination. "We hope that our expertise will be finished this week," prosecution spokesman Ivan Markovic said, adding that the final report could take time "because some of the information is located in foreign countries." Serbia's N1 television has said the packages, with two guided armor-piercing missiles, were discovered Saturday by a sniffer dog after an Air Serbia flight landed at Belgrade airport from Beirut. Serbian media said documents listed the final destination for the AGM-114 Hellfire missiles as Portland, Oregon, with a stopover in London. The American-made projectiles can be fired from air, sea or ground platforms. They are also launched from drones in the U.S. fight against terrorism. The practice version of Hellfire is fitted with an inert warhead without explosives. A U.S. official familiar with the situation, speaking on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to discuss the case, said the missiles are "inert training dummies." "There was no explosive residue, no warhead and no engine," he said. These are formally called "captive air training missiles" and they had been sent to Lebanon by their producer, Lockheed Martin, for the Lebanese armed forces to practice mounting them on their Cessna planes, according to the official. He said it is not clear how the Serbs picked up explosive residue on the crates, but added it was possible that it was a mistake or that someone who loaded them in Lebanon may have gotten some residue on them. The head of Beirut's Rafik Hariri International Airport issued a statement saying that the missiles do not contain any explosives. Fadi al-Hassan said the transport "happened in coordination with the Army Command and in accordance to the administrative, legal and security measures taken at the airport."

Geagea Says March 14 'Not at its Best'
Naharnet/March 15/16/Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea has admitted that the March 14 alliance is “not at its best” but called for resolving its problems on the 11th anniversary of its establishment. In a lengthy interview with al-Akhbar daily published on Monday, Geagea said: “We can only salvage Lebanon and establish a state through the plan of the March 14 (alliance), which we hold on to.”“We have huge organizational problems but we should work on resolving them,” he stressed. “No matter how great the challenges, we will not let down the supporters of the Cedar Revolution,” he later added in a press conference. “Despite the emergence of differences, the March 14 coalition still stands because its mission has not changed,” he explained. “I assure the March 14 supporters that the crisis within the coalition is temporary and not about a core issue.” The LF chief said he disagrees with al-Mustaqbal movement that is led by MP Saad Hariri on two major issues – the presidency and the management of the March 14 alliance. But he stressed that the two controversial issues are “not fundamental,” saying “the Mustaqbal and LF general rhetoric is one.”Asked why Hariri preferred to have Marada leader MP Suleiman Franjieh as president, Geagea said: “His stance stems from his efforts to end the (presidential) vacuum swiftly.”The Mustaqbal chief has reiterated on several occasions that he backs the candidacy of Franjieh, who is a member of the Hizbullah-led March 8 alliance, to end the presidential deadlock, which has been gripping the country since the end of President Michel Suleiman's term in May 2014. But Geagea has been backing the head of the Change and Reform bloc, MP Michel Aoun, who is also a March 8 official. The LF chief pulled out of the presidential race in January and backed Aoun, his long-time rival. Geagea described his ties with Hariri as “normal” following their differences on the candidacies, saying relations between them “are not the way they should be as a result of the presidential candidates.”“I am convinced by the decision I've taken,” he told the newspaper over his choice on Aoun. “If we are going to elect a president from March 8 … then it should be Aoun because he has the biggest representation” of Christians. Geagea reiterated that Hizbullah does not want the presidential elections to be held. “I am convinced by that,” he said. The MPs of Aoun's Change and Reform bloc, Hizbullah and some of their March 8 allies have been boycotting parliamentary sessions aimed at electing a head of state.When asked by his interviewer whether this situation would lead to the country's destruction, Geagea said: “There won't be any strife due to the Lebanese army.”
“We believe that the candidacy of Aoun guarantees” an end to the disintegration of the state, he added.

'You Stink' Blocks Roads to Protest 'Rubbish' Government
Naharnet/March 15/16/Protesters from the “You Stink” movement sought on Monday to block several major roads that lead to Beirut, saying their move is aimed at rejecting the landfills that will be established by the state. Police pushed dozens of protesters to the side of the highway in Dora and in another area in Hazmieh to stop them from blocking the roads during the early morning rush hour. Security forces arrested a woman in Dora after she sat on the asphalt in the middle of the road despite the heavy rain. In another area, demonstrators partly blocked the Khaldeh highway but it was reopened by police. "Today we are sending a message to the government, these were symbolic actions," said activist Assad Thebian. "We are in discussion with unions and organizations to step up our action for next time." Another activist described the government of Prime Minister Tammam Salam as the cabinet of “rubbish,” saying it has tasked Sukleen with collecting the waste at a time when the company faces charges of squandering of funds. The man warned the Lebanese that their children will die of cancer as a result of the landfills. The trash crisis began in July, when the country's main landfill in the town of Naameh just south of Beirut, was closed. The government announced on Saturday a temporary solution for the country's eight-month trash crisis by opening three landfills. The Naameh landfill will be reopened for two months to take in tens of thousands of tons of trash that have piled around the country while two other landfills and treatment plants will be opened in Bourj Hammoud north of Beirut and Nahr al-Ghadir area (Costa Brava) that lies south of the capital. But the activists are demanding a more long-term waste-disposal plan. Earlier this month, "You Stink" posted on its Facebook page a jarring video of mountains of trash festering across Lebanon. In one of the shots filmed by a drone, plastic bags containing rubbish can be seen stretching for miles like a flowing river. The footage, which was widely shared ahead of the demonstration, mocked the tourism ministry over a video it had commissioned to highlight Lebanon's natural beauty.

Aoun rejects electing president who lacks wide representation
Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star/Mar. 15/2016
BEIRUT: MP Michel Aoun Monday warned against electing a new president who does not enjoy wide representation within the Christian community in line with the National Pact’s rules on power sharing between Muslims and Christians. He also urged his supporters in the Free Patriotic Movement to be ready to take to the street to force a change in the current political situation. Aoun’s remarks appeared to be directed at Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Frangieh, who has been nominated for the presidency by former Prime Minister Saad Hariri as part of an initiative aimed at ending the 21-month long presidential vacuum. “The National Pact appoints a prime minister who enjoys the largest [Sunni] representation. So it does with a Parliament speaker. Why can’t someone who enjoys the largest [Christian] representation be elected a president?” Aoun said in a speech during a FPM ceremony marking the 27th anniversary of Aoun’s ill-fated and self-proclaimed “war of liberation” against the Syrian army on March 14, 1989. “This story is over and we will no longer accept that the interests of the Lebanese people be a victim of whims and interests,” he said. “I think the doors are open to all kinds of solutions. We will not allow the extension of the situation that has been going on since 1990.”The FPM, Hezbollah and some of its March 8 allies have argued that Aoun, who heads the largest Christian bloc in Parliament, is the strongest presidential candidate. Calling on FPM supporters to roll up their sleeves and prepare to take to the street to bring about a change, Aoun said: “Don’t lose hope because we have the will and resources to achieve a change by using all means to attain the desired goal.” He did not elaborate. Aoun, who is backed for the presidency against Frangieh by Hezbollah and some its March 8 allies and the Lebanese Forces following his historic reconciliation with LF chief Samir Geagea, said that since the top post became vacant on May 24, 2014, at the end of former President Michel Sleiman’s six-year term, he has proposed the election of a president directly by the people or holding parliamentary polls before the presidential vote as a means of breaking the deadlock. “But they [March 14 parties] rejected the proposals because they want the election of a president before [parliamentary elections] in order to impose their own majority,” he said. “They don’t want [parliamentary] elections because they fear defeat.”
Aoun, who was part of the March 14 coalition established on March 14, 2005, a month after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and campaigned for the withdrawal of the Syrian army from Lebanon, accused the coalition of stealing his party’s slogan of “freedom, sovereignty and independence.”“Today, the Taiwanese [fake] March 14 coalition has collapsed and the genuine March 14 has survived,” he said, referring to his party. Aoun said he was not seeking a change of the 1989 Taif agreement that ended the 1975-90 Civil War and curtailed the Maronite president’s prerogatives.
“We are not demanding a change of the Taif Accord but its interpretation in a correct manner. Where is the equality in representation and an electoral law that ensures true representation of various segments of the people?” he asked. Aoun slammed the extension of Parliament’s mandate twice since 2013 as well as the extension of senior military officials’ terms. “I am an unelected MP who does not enjoy parliamentary legitimacy,” he said, adding that Parliament’s mandate should have ended in 2013. “How can a Parliament that lacks legitimacy elect a legitimate president?” Aoun asked. He said lawmakers who have extended Parliament’s mandate have “usurped power.”Aoun blamed the 1960 electoral law for the lack of true Christian representation in Parliament, renewing his call for a vote law based on proportional representation. Aoun’s speech came a day after Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil hinted that the FPM would take to the street if Parliament failed to elect Aoun president.

Aoun: March 14 Has Collapsed and Illegitimate Parliament Can't Elect Legitimate President
Naharnet/March 15/16/
Free Patriotic Movement founder MP Michel Aoun declared Monday that the “fake March 14” camp has “collapsed,” as he reiterated that a parliament whose term is extended lacks the legitimacy to elect a “legitimate president.”“Term extensions for certain figures or top security officials are unconstitutional and illegitimate,” said Aoun during the FPM's annual March 14 ceremony, reminiscing the political battle he fought to prevent the extension of the term of Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji. “We will not tolerate these violations. We are secular, but until our society accepts secularism, we must accept the fact that there are decent candidates for state posts in all sects,” Aoun added. Prior to Qahwaji's term extension, the FPM founder was reportedly seeking the appointment of then Commando Regiment chief Chamel Roukoz -- his son-in-law -- as new army commander. “Today the problem is in the electoral law, which has created imbalance, unfairness and lack of participation in running the country … The electoral law is based on an improper sectarian distribution,” Aoun lamented.
“Christians have lived with all sects in 22 districts, which made them minorities in these districts … There is no fairness in the composition of electoral districts and we are calling for a law based on proportional representation,” he added. Accusing rival parties of rejecting proportional representation “because it would rid us of their privileges,” Aoun stressed that “there is no legitimacy for an authority that does not draw its legitimacy from the people.”“People are the source of authorities and I'm an unelected MP and I don't enjoy parliamentary legitimacy,” he said. “How can a person who lacks legitimacy be able to elect a legitimate president?” Aoun asked. “We are not demanding to amend the Taef Accord but rather to interpret it in a proper way. Where is equal representation and where is the electoral law that ensures proper representation for all components? How can you strip me of my right and ask me to respect the requirements of coexistence?”
Lashing out at the rival March 14 forces, Aoun accused them of stealing his “slogans and history” by “calling themselves March 14.”“Today the fake March 14 (camp) has collapsed and the genuine March 14 forces have endured,” Aoun added. He was referring to the date of March 14, 1989 when he launched what he termed a "war of liberation" against Syrian forces in Lebanon. Aoun was the commander of the Lebanese army at the time. Turning to the issue of the long-running presidential vacuum, Aoun said: “The presidential vacuum started two years ago and we tried to rebuild the authorities. We said that the illegitimate parliament had no right to elect a president, but they wanted to elect a president before holding the parliamentary polls under the excuse of the security situation.”Noting that “elections were held in Iraq and Syria during wartime,” Aoun charged that “bad intentions” govern the decisions of his rivals.
“They don't want (parliamentary) elections because they fear defeat,” he claimed. “They rejected our proposals on the election of a president by the people and on holding early parliamentary polls,” Aoun recalled. “The National Pact stipulates choosing the most popular figure as premier and the same applies for the parliament speaker, so why don't we elect the most representative president? This scenario has ended and from now on we won't accept that the Lebanese people's interest be prey to their interests,” the FPM founder warned.
Cautioning that “all types of solutions are on the table today,” Aoun vowed that his movement “won't allow the situation that has persisted since 1990 to continue.”“Do not despair because we have the will and capabilities to achieve change with all the available means,” he added, addressing supporters.
Lebanon has been without a president since the term of Michel Suleiman ended in May 2014 and the FPM, Hizbullah and some of their allies have been boycotting the electoral sessions. Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri launched late in 2015 a proposal to nominate Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency but his suggestion was rejected by the country's main Christian parties as well as Hizbullah. The Hizbullah-led March 8 camp, as well as March 14's Lebanese Forces, have argued that Aoun is more eligible than Franjieh to become president given the size of his parliamentary bloc and his bigger influence in the Christian community.

Hariri Travels to Paris after Visiting Yarze in Show of Support to Army

Naharnet/March 15/16/ Al-Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri said on Monday that Arab states would continue to back Lebanon despite a halt to billions of dollars of Saudi assistance to the army and security forces. Following a meeting with Army chief Gen. Jean Qahwaji and Defense Minister Samir Moqbel in Yarze, Hariri said: “We are confident that our Arab brethren will not let go of us. The Saudi grant has been frozen but we are exerting an effort to stress that we back the military.” Saudi Arabia has cut $4 billion in aid to the army and security forces and has urged its citizens to leave Lebanon to put pressure on Hizbullah. Earlier this month, the Saudi-led bloc of six Gulf Arab nations considered Hizbullah a terrorist organization. Hariri said his visit to the defense ministry in Yarze was aimed at showing solidarity with the army and extending his condolences on the death of a soldier in the northeastern border town of Arsal last week. Mohammed Hussam al-Sayyed al-Sabsabi was killed on Thursday when the army launched a preemptive strike against jihadists from the Islamic State group on the outskirts of Ras Baalbek in the East. “We have a powerful army and strong security forces that protect us and protect Lebanon against all dangers,” said the former prime minister. Hariri reiterated that the IS “does not represent Islam.” In the evening, the former premier traveled to Paris for a "private visit," his office said. Media reports said Hariri will spend several days in the French capital. The threat of the IS and al-Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front rose in August 2014 when the jihadists overran Arsal and engaged in heavy gunbattles with the army. The militants also took with them 30 hostages from the army and police. After long negotiations, 16 of the kidnapped men were released at the start of December in exchange for Islamist prisoners jailed in Lebanon.

Salam Requests Security Forces to Monitor Implementation of Trash Plan to Avoid Unrest
Naharnet/March 15/16/Prime Minister Tammam Salam chaired on Monday a ministerial security meeting to address the latest developments in Lebanon, as well as the implementation of the trash disposal plan that was adopted by cabinet over the weekend. Salam requested the heads of military and security forces to monitor the implementation of the plan to prevent any possible unrest. Held at the Grand Serail, the meeting was attended by Defense Minister Samir Moqbel, Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq, General Prosecutor Judge Samir Hammoud, Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji, Internal Security Forces chief Ibrahim Basbous, General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim, State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr, Military Intelligence chief Edmond Fadel, and ISF Intelligence Bureau head Imad Othman. The gatherers also addressed efforts to combat crime throughout Lebanon, in addition to the army and security forces' operations against terrorists in the country and along its eastern border. The government announced on Saturday a temporary solution for the country's eight-month trash crisis by opening three landfills. The Naameh landfill will be reopened for two months to take in tens of thousands of tons of trash that have piled around the country while two other landfills and treatment plants will be opened in Bourj Hammoud north of Beirut and Nahr al-Ghadir area (Costa Brava) that lies south of the capital. Activists have however demanded a more long-term waste-disposal plan with many taking to the streets of Beirut on Monday to protest the plan. Lebanon plunged in a waste disposal crisis following the July 2015 closure of the Naameh dump, which resulted in the piling of trash on the streets throughout the country.

Army Raids Houses in Sidon after Arrests in Nabatiyeh

Naharnet/March 15/16/Army intelligence agents on Monday raided several houses inhabited by Syrians in the eastern suburbs of the southern city of Sidon, media reports said, a day after four individuals were arrested in Nabatiyeh on suspicion of plotting an act of sabotage. “An intelligence force raided houses in the al-Naddaf Square in Sidon's Villas region,” al-Jadeed television reported. “The road leading to the houses was closed,” al-Jadeed added, quoting a security source as saying that the intelligence agents were checking the IDs and residency permits of the Syrians who live in the area. “The move is part of efforts aimed at consolidating security and stability, especially after four Syrians were arrested yesterday in the Nabatiyeh region on charges of forming a terrorist cell to stage an act of sabotage,” the TV network added. On Sunday, an army intelligence patrol arrested the Syrians Louay al-Kalash, Abdul Salam al-Kalash, Mohammed al-Rifai and Ayyoub al-Rifai in the Nabatiyeh region of Yohmor on charges of “belonging to terrorist groups and plotting an act of sabotage in the city of Nabatiyeh,” an army statement said.


Sami Gemayel inaugurates waste management plant in Bikfaya

Mon 14 Mar 2016/NNA - Kataeb Party Leader, MP Sami Gemayel, on Monday inaugurated "Bi Clean" waste management plant in Bikafaya, in order to sort some 8 tons of daily domestic trash on the level of a number of Metn localities. "The plant will be treating [the waste of] four villages (...) as of next month, we will withdraw from the central contracts and we will not pay any penny to thieves. We will also try to apply this plan throughout Mount of Lebanon region," he said. "Decentralization is the solution to all development-related problems," he maintained>"This experience is just the start," he added, calling municipalities to check this plan."We have promised and today we're keeping our promise; we shall carry on local development without corruption and tribulation," he concluded.

Sami Gemayel laying wreath on March 14 martyrs' tombs: We shall remain loyal to their martyrdom
Mon 14 Mar 2016/NNA - Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel on Monday laid wreath on behalf of the party wreaths on the tombs of the martyrs of independence intifada on the occasion of March 14 anniversary.Gemayel wrote on his Twitter account "We shall remain loyal to your martyrdom."Gemayel laid wreaths on the tombs of martyrs Rafic Hariri, Bassel Fleihan, Samir Qassir, George Hawi, Jibran Tueini, Pierre Gemayel, Walid Eido, Antoine Ghanem, Francois Hajj, Wissam Eid, Samer Hanna, Wissam Hassan, and Mohammed Shatah.

Angelina Jolie arrives in Beirut to check on Syrian refugee camps

Mon 14 Mar 2016/NNA - UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Goodwill Ambassador Angelina Jolie arrived on Monday in Beirut coming from Croatia on a private jet, to inspect a number of Syrian refugee camps marking fifth year of Syria war, NNA correspondent reported. Ambassador Jolie was greeted at the airport by Foreign Ministry Protocol Department Head Ambassador Mira Daher and UNHCR representatives.

Mufti Shaar from Saudi Embassy: Lebanon will not be a thorn in the side of Arabs
Mon 14 Mar 2016/NNA - Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Awadh Asseri received on Monday at the KSA Embassy in Beirut, Mufti of Tripoli and the North Malek Shaar on top of a large delegation of scholars and heads of municipalities who came to utter solidarity with Saudi Arabia.
Addressing the Saudi Ambassador, Shaar said "Lebanon will not be a thorn in the side of Arabs... We are here to announce a national Arab and Islamic stance that translates our patriotic loyalty, our Arab belonging and our religious and ethical identity.""We are here to confirm that Lebanon would not be outside the Arab consensus. It will not be a thorn in the side of Arabs, neither will it be hostage to the positions of any party or Minister..." he assured. "Insulting the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the GCC is a sacrilege of the values and the sense of belonging we have. It is a form of ingratitude, a characteristic that neither our culture nor our ethics or history allow," the Mufti said, calling upon the secretary-general of Hezbollah to point the Resistance's weapons back at the Israeli enemy and not at the inside or against fellow Arabs and Muslims. He also called on the party to put Lebanon's interests above all others, saying "we are your partners in the homeland, so do not make us endure what we cannot bear."For his part, Ambassador Asseri said "This visit by the Grand Mufti and this delegation of senior figures of the north bears so many meanings. It reflects the depth of the historic relation between the peoples of Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.""What I would say to the Lebanese and whoever harms Lebanon, Love your country and care for it, and leave the others alone," he urged.

HRW urges Egypt to annul jail terms for Christian teens
AFP | Cairo Monday, 14 March 2016/Human Rights Watch urged Egypt on Monday to annul the jail sentences handed to four Coptic Christian teenagers for contempt of Islam after they were seen in a video mocking Muslim prayers. In February, a court in the central province of Minya sentenced three teenagers to five years and a fourth to a juvenile detention centre for an indefinite period. Defence lawyer Maher Naguib said at the time that the four had not intended to insult Islam in the video, but were instead mocking the beheadings carried out by militants of ISIS. “Mocking (IS), or any religious group, with a childish joke is not a crime,” Nadim Houry, HRW’s deputy director for the Middle East said in a statement. “Instead of giving in to retrograde views on blasphemy, Egyptian authorities should protect freedom of expression.”The video was filmed on a mobile phone in early 2015 when the three teenagers who were sentenced to five years were aged between 15 and 17. None of the four have been arrested yet. Their teacher who is also seen in the video was sentenced to three years in jail. In the video, one teenager can be seen kneeling on the ground and reciting Muslim prayers while others stand behind him, laughing. Later one of them is seen making a sign with his thumb to indicate the beheading of the one who is kneeling. “The continued prosecution of blasphemy cases in Egypt goes against the government’s claim to be promoting a more inclusive vision of religion,” said Houry. Egypt’s constitution outlaws insults against the three monotheist religions recognised by the state -- Islam, Christianity and Judaism. Rights groups say that in recent years there has been a rise in such cases in Egypt, with the country’s morality police also stepping up operations. The Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights says that between 2011 and 2013, 42 defendants were tried in similar cases and of them 27 were convicted. On Sunday, Egypt sacked justice minister Ahmed al-Zind after he said on television that he would arrest even “a prophet” in remarks that sparked outrage. In December, an Egyptian court jailed controversial Muslim scholar Islam al-Behairy for one year for remarks he made on his television programme, in which he called for reforms in “traditional Islamic discourse”.


Syria jet purportedly downed by surface-to-air missile

Now Lebanon/March 15/16/BEIRUT – Syrian rebels near Hama purportedly downed a regime fighter jet with a surface-to-air missile, according to one of the videos that emerged from the mysterious incident, contradicting previous rebel claims that anti-aircraft fire brought down the plane. On March 12, the Jaysh al-Islam rebel group claimed responsibility for the shoot down of a MiG-21 jet conducting bombing raids over Kafr Nabudah, a small town 40 kilometers northwest of Hama. The rebel faction stressed on Twitter that it had downed the jet with an anti-aircraft gun, releasing a video showing insurgents firing the weapon system—which was mounted on a pick-up truck—in the direction of the plane. The video zooms in on the airplane, showing it catch fire amid the hail of anti-aircraft fire. However, the short clip does not conclusively confirm that the heavy-caliber gun brought down the jet. Two other groups—Ahrar al-Sham and the Jaysh al-Nasr coalition—also released videos of the incident, showing different rebel crews manning anti-aircraft guns as the jet streaks overhead, further adding to the confusion of who brought down the jet and how. Despite rebel claims the plane was shot down with an anti-aircraft gun, Russia’s Ministry of Defense issued a statement on March 13 alleging that the “Syrian MiG-21 was downed by a MANPAD shot near Kafr Nabudah on March 12, 2016 at 2:41 p.m.” However, a rebel commander fired back at the allegation, telling the pro-opposition El Dorar news outlet the Russian statement could be intended to imply that certain states are providing man-portable air-defense systems to the rebels. Since Russia began its aerial bombardment campaign in Syria on September 30, 2015, rebels have pleaded for the provision of MANPADs to strike Russian fighter jets. However, reports indicate that the US is unwilling to supply rebels with the powerful anti-aircraft weapon system. The Syria Steps online outlet obtained a video of the fighting around the Hama town that appears to show a surface-to-air missile fired from a rebel-held area. At the 17-second mark of the short clip, a vapor trail can be seen stretching up into the sky from an area Syria Steps reported is controlled by fighters from Jaysh al-Nasr, Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam. The outlet edited the original video, zooming in on the “missile launch” to reveal a small streak of light racing into the air, closely resembling a missile launch. NOW’s English news desk editor Albin Szakola (@AlbinSzakola) wrote this report. Amin Nasr translated Arabic-language source material. The moment a Syrian MiG-21 catches fire outside Aleppo. (YouTube/Jaysh al-Islam). At the 17-second mark of the short clip, a vapor trail can be seen stretching up into the sky from an area Syria Steps reported is controlled by fighters from Jaysh al-Nasr, Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam.

Syria’s ‘moment of truth’ as Geneva talks begin
Reuters, Geneva - Beirut Monday, 14 March 2016/Syria faces a moment of truth, U.N. mediator Staffan de Mistura said on Monday as he opened the first of three rounds of peace talks envisaged to negotiate a “clear roadmap” for a future Syria. Saying there was no “plan B” but a return to war, de Mistura asked to hear from all sides but said he would have no hesitation in calling in the big powers, led by the United States and Russia, if the talks get bogged down. “If during these talks and in the next rounds we will see no notice of any willingness to negotiate... we will bring the issue back to those who have influence, and that is the Russian Federation, the USA... and to the Security Council,” he told a news conference. The talks are the first to be held in more than two years and come amid an unprecedented cessation in hostilities sponsored by Washington and Moscow and accepted by President Bashar al-Assad’s government and most of his foes. The truce, the first of its kind in a 5 year-old war that has killed 250,000 people, has sharply reduced the fighting over the past two weeks, giving rise to hope that this diplomatic initiative will succeed where all previous efforts failed. The cessation was agreed after de Mistura called off a previous attempt to convene talks last month. The talks must focus on political transition, which is the “mother of all issues,” de Mistura said, while separate taskforces would keep tackling humanitarian issues and the cessation of hostilities.
“As far as I know, the only Plan B available is return to war, and to even worse war than we had so far.”
All sides attending the talks have committed to a political transition that will follow the war, but Assad and his opponents disagree fundamentally on what that means, including whether the president must leave power. The first round of talks will end around March 24, followed by a break of 7-10 days, then a second round of at least two weeks before another recess and a third round. “By then we believe we should have at least a clear roadmap. I’m not saying agreement, but a clear roadmap because that’s what Syria is expecting from all of us.” De Mistura did not mention whether Kurdish leaders would be involved for the first time, but said that the “proximity” format of indirect talks gave him flexibility to hear as many voices as possible, and all Syrians should be given a chance. The main Kurdish YPG militia, which controls a swathe of northern Syria and is backed by the United States in combat with ISIS fighters, has so far been excluded from talks in line with the views of Turkey, which considers it a terrorist group.
“The rule of the game will be inclusiveness,” de Mistura said.
“In fact, the list of those whom we are going to consult or meet, or will be part of -- eventually, I hope -- not only of proximity negotiations but in fact direct negotiations is going to be constantly updated. Meanwhile, recent cooperation between the United States and Russia has helped to reduce the level of violence and brought the parties to Geneva, the positions of the government and opposition reveal little ground for a negotiated settlement. Pointing to a possible escalation in the war if there is no progress, the Russian defense ministry said rebels had used an anti-aircraft missile to shoot down a Syrian warplane on Saturday. Rebels said it was shot down with anti-aircraft guns, rather than a missile, a weapon fighters have sought but Western countries want to keep out of their hands because of the potential threat to civil aviation if militants acquire them. Reflecting the Damascus government's confidence, Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem warned the opposition on Saturday it was deluded if it believed it would be able to take power at the negotiating table, and ruled out any talks on the presidency.
Read to fight on
The opposition are holding out little hope that Geneva will bring them nearer to their goal of toppling Assad. Announcing its decision to attend the Geneva talks, the main opposition umbrella group said the government was preparing for more war. Rebels say they are ready to fight on despite their recent defeats. They hope foreign backers - notably Saudi Arabia - will send them more powerful weapons including anti-aircraft missiles if the political process collapses. "I expect that if in this round the regime is stubborn, and doesn't offer anything real, it will be the end of the talks and we will go back to the military solution," said Bashar al-Zoubi, a prominent rebel. The talks aim to build on a "cessation of hostilities" agreement brokered by the United States and Russia that has brought about a considerable reduction in fighting since it came into effect on Feb. 27. It marks the most serious effort yet towards de-escalating the conflict, surprising many and allowing for aid deliveries to besieged areas, though the opposition says the deliveries to rebel-held territory fall well short of needs. The sides have, however, accused each other of violations, and Saturday was one of the most violent days since it came into force, with rebels and government forces clashing in Hama province and insurgents shooting down the warplane. The Russian defense ministry said a portable air-defense system had been used to bring down the Syrian MiG-21. "Russia wants to accuse the friends of the Syrian people of supplying it with missiles, and this did not happen," said Mohammad Alloush, head of the politburo of the Jaish al-Islam group and HNC chief negotiator. He said all groups were requesting the means to defend civilians from warplanes and barrel bombs - oil drums filled with explosives that the opposition says the army uses to cause indiscriminate damage in rebel areas.
Rebels under pressure
The main opposition alliance, known as the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), comes to the talks with the balance of forces stacked against it after Russia's intervention and an increase in military support to Assad from Iran, his other main ally. The HNC has also voiced concerns about what it sees as a softening of the U.S. stance on Syria, saying Washington has given ground to Moscow. HNC official George Sabra, speaking in Geneva, called the American position "ambiguous, even for its allies". The HNC says the talks must focus on setting up a transitional governing body with full executive powers, and that Assad must leave power at the start of the transition. But Foreign Minister Muallem on Saturday set out a very different vision, indicating that the most the government would offer was a national unity government with opposition participation, and a new or amended constitution. He also said the government delegation would resist any attempt to put the question of presidential elections on the agenda, and criticized U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura for last week outlining an agenda that includes elections. De Mistura is due meet the sides separately on Monday before briefing the Security Council.
'Spoiler'
Syria's U.N. ambassador Bashar Ja'afari, head of the government delegation, said the talks needed to work on preparatory issues first and it was premature to talk about a transitional period. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Muallem's comments aimed to disrupt the political process. Kerry also said the Syrian government and its backers were mistaken if they thought they could continue to test the boundaries of the fragile truce. Accusing Damascus of carrying out the most violations, Kerry said Russian President Vladimir Putin needed to look at how Assad was acting. "President Assad is singing on a completely different song sheet and sent his foreign minister out yesterday to try to act as a spoiler and take off the table what President Putin and the Iranians have agreed to," Kerry said. Attempts to get the diplomatic process moving have already faced big obstacles, including a row over who should be invited to negotiate with the Syrian government. The HNC groups political and armed opponents of Assad. Russia reiterated its view that the Kurdish PYD party, which wields wide influence in northern Syria, should be at the talks. The PYD has been excluded in line with the wishes of Turkey, which views it as an extension of the PKK group that is waging an insurgency in southeastern Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow had evidence that Turkish armed forces were on Syrian territory, calling Turkey's actions "creeping expansion". There was no immediate Turkish response, but Ankara has in the past repeatedly denied that it was planning an incursion. Lavrov also said Monday that ultimatums do not help to create an atmosphere of accord at the Syrian peace talks in Geneva, RIA news agency reported. Though not invited, PYD leader Saleh Muslim told Reuters he hoped the talks would not fail, adding: "If they do, the results will be disastrous for everyone."

Kerry: Two state solution needs ‘global’ push
AFP, Paris Monday, 14 March 2016/US Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday a solution to the long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict required “the global community”, as France prepared to present proposals to revive the peace process to EU foreign ministers. “Obviously we are all looking for a way forward. The United States and myself remain deeply, deeply committed to a two-state solution,” Kerry said after a Paris meeting with his counterparts from France, Italy, Britain, Germany and the EU. “At the moment it is a difficult one, because of the violence that has been taking place, and there are not many people in Israel or in the region itself right now that believe in the possibilities of peace because of those levels of violence,” he added. Kerry’s comments came after his French counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault said he would present proposals to revive talks to EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday. “The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains but is getting worse, the status quo cannot last,” Ayrault said in Paris. The newly-appointed French foreign minister visited Cairo last week to drum up support for the initiative to hold an international conference by the summer to revive peace talks.
A previous round of talks brokered by Kerry collapsed in April 2014. “...not any one country or one person can resolve this. This is going to require the global community, it will require international support,” said Kerry.Senior French diplomat Pierre Vimont is touring Israel, the Palestinian territories and other countries in the region to discuss the proposal before heading to Washington next week. EU foreign policy Chief Federica Mogherini said France was coordinating its proposals with the EU as part of “joint efforts to try and create conditions for a two-state solution”. The renewed efforts to resolve one of the world’s oldest conflicts come amid a wave of violence that has seen Palestinians carry out knife, gun or car-ramming attacks against Israelis. Since October 1, 188 Palestinians, 28 Israelis, two Americans, an Eritrean and a Sudanese have died, according to an AFP count. Most of the Palestinians were killed while carrying out attacks, Israeli authorities say. Others were shot dead by Israeli forces during clashes or demonstrations. Many analysts say Palestinian frustration with Israeli occupation and settlement building in the West Bank, the complete lack of progress in peace efforts and their own fractured leadership have fed the unrest. Israel blames incitement by Palestinian leaders and media as a main cause of the violence.

Second round of Iran elections set for April 29
AFP | Tehran Monday, 14 March 2016/Iran will hold a second round of voting on April 29 to fill 69 parliamentary seats for which no clear winner emerged during last month's elections, state media said Monday. The run-off is necessary because under Iran's election rules a member of parliament must win 25 percent of votes cast, but this only happened for 221 of the country's 290 seats. The first round on February 26 saw allies of Iran's moderate President Hassan Rowhani make major gains against conservatives. But neither group won a majority, meaning the outcome of the second round - which will involve only the top two contenders from the first vote for each seat left empty - could affect the balance of power in the legislature. Conservatives won 103 seats last month while the pro-Rowhani coalition of moderates and reformists, dubbed the "List of Hope", won 95, with other seats going to independents and minorities. Mohammad Reza Aref, a former vice president and the reformist leader of the List of Hope, last week said it aimed to win at least 40 of the 69 seats up for grabs in the second round. "With the approval of the Guardian Council the second round of parliamentary elections will be held on April 29," Ali Motlagh, secretary of election headquarters, which is part of the interior ministry, told state television. The elections, following Iran's landmark nuclear deal with world powers, were seen as a vote of public confidence for Rouhani's administration. With a more amenable parliament - new lawmakers will take their seats in May - the president is expected to push for sweeping economic reform to allow the country to cash in on foreign business interest. After their recent alliance for the election, reformists may also pressure Rowhani, who was elected in 2013, to push for the social and cultural changes he promised when standing for president.

Iraq medics screen 800 people after chemical attack
AFP | Taza (Iraq) Monday, 14 March 2016/Health authorities in Iraq’s Kirkuk region have screened a total of 800 people since a chemical attack carried out by ISIS last week, officials said on Monday. “The number of people who have sought treatment and been checked by the hospitals in Daquq and Kirkuk has topped 800,” said Hussein Adil Abbas, the mayor of Taza. ISIS last week fired a salvo of rockets armed with suspected chemical agents on the town of Taza, around 220 kilometres (135 miles) north of Baghdad. The attack originated from the nearby village of Bashir, which is still controlled by the militants. “Among the people who have been checked, 61 are receiving treatment and undergoing further testing. Seven of them have been transferred to Baghdad,” Abbas told AFP. A three-year-old girl has died as a result of injuries caused by the attack. Her funeral was attended by hundreds, some of them carrying placards to demand more protection from the government. Local officials have said that ISIS used mustard agent in the attack but the samples are still being analysed and definitive results from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons based in The Hague sometimes take months.
Civil defence teams have since Sunday been spraying and cleaning areas that might have been contaminated in last week’s attack, the mayor said. While the chemical agents used by ISIS so far have been among their least effective weapons, the psychological impact on civilians is considerable. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has vowed the attack would not go unpunished and several air raids have already been carried out on Bashir over the past three days.

U.S. stages 15 strikes against ISIS in Iraq, Syria: statement
Reuters | Washington Monday, 14 March 2016/The United States and its allies targeted ISIS in Iraq and Syria with 15 strikes on Sunday, the coalition leading the operations said in a statement on its latest round of daily attacks on the militant group. In Iraq, 11 strikes near seven cities were concentrated near Hit and Sinjar, where they hit five of the militants’ tactical units and destroyed two vehicles, among other damage, the Combined Joint Task Force said on Monday. Four strikes in near Manbij and Mar’a, Syria, hit four ISIS tactical units and destroyed two vehicles and two fighting positions, the coalition statement said.

Russia ready to cooperate with US-led coalition in fight for Syria’s Raqqa
Reuters, Moscow Monday, 14 March 2016/Russia is ready to coordinate its actions with the US-led coalition in Syria to push ISIS out of Raqqa, Interfax news agency quoted Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying. “We are ready to coordinate our actions with the Americans, because Raqqa is in the eastern part of Syria, and the American coalition is mainly ... acting there,” Interfax quoted Lavrov as saying in an interview with the Ren-TV television channel. “Perhaps, this is no secret, if I say that at some stage the Americans suggested performing a ‘division of labor’: the Russian Air Forces should concentrate on the liberation of Palmyra, and the American coalition with Russian support will focus on the liberation of Raqqa,” the minister added.

Israeli forces shoot dead three Palestinians
AFP, Jerusalem Monday, 14 March 2016/Three Palestinians carried out two attacks - a shooting and a car-ramming - on Israelis in the southern occupied West Bank on Monday before they were shot dead, the Israeli army said. “Two assailants opened fire at pedestrians waiting at a bus stop at the entrance of Kiryat Arba (near Hebron). Forces guarding the area responded and shot the assailants, resulting in their deaths,” a military statement read. “Moments later, in an additional attack, a vehicle rammed into a military vehicle responding at the scene. Forces responded to the immediate danger and shot the assailant, resulting in his death.”The army said a soldier was wounded in the shooting attack, and two others lightly wounded in the car-ramming. A military spokeswoman said the assailants used a pistol and a submachine gun. Israeli security forces have noted a recent surge in shooting attacks in Jerusalem and the West Bank following five-and-a-half months of Palestinian attacks. Since October 1, a wave of violence has killed 191 Palestinians, 28 Israelis, two Americans, an Eritrean and a Sudanese, according to an AFP count. Most of the Palestinians were killed while carrying out knife, gun or car-ramming attacks, while others were killed in clashes with Israeli security forces. Many analysts say young Palestinians are fed up with Israeli occupation, while Israel blames incitement by Palestinian leaders and media as a main cause of the violence.

Russia against sanctions on Iran for missile test.
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Monday, 14 March 2016/Russia is against imposing sanctions on Iran over its recent ballistic missile tests, Moscow’s ambassador to the United Nations said Monday. Asked whether the Security Council should impose penalties on Iran, Vitaly Churkin said: “The clear and short answer is no.” On the same day, Iran’s foreign minister defended the nation’s right to use ballistic missiles, but offered no explanation for the phrases “Israel must be wiped out” written on them in Hebrew. Speaking in Wellington, New Zealand, Mohammad Javad Zarif said Iran has always reserved the right to defend itself. “Anybody who is crazy enough to attack us, we will attack back using conventional weapons,” he said. “We hope that these conventional weapons will never be used because we do believe that in a war, everybody loses.”On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on world powers to punish Iran for its firing of the missiles. Netanyahu said he instructed Israel’s Foreign Ministry to direct the demand to the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany - the countries that signed the deal lifting sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran curbing its nuclear program. Following last week’s missile launches, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on Iran to “act with moderation,” and the US ambassador to the United Nations said the launches were “provocative and destabilizing.”Iran’s Revolutionary Guard test-launch of the missiles was the latest in a series of recent tests aimed at demonstrating Iran’s intentions to push ahead with its missile program after scaling back its nuclear program under the deal reached last year.(With AFP and the Associated Press)

Iran welcomes Vietnamese leader, looks to boost trade
The Associated Press, Tehran Monday, 14 March 2016/Iran’s president welcomed his Vietnamese counterpart on Monday, saying Tehran hopes to boost trade with the Southeast Asian nation to $2 billion from the current $350 million within five years, state media reported. Hassan Rowhani said he and Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang discussed cooperation against terrorism as well as unspecified “problems” in East Asia, according to state TV. “Moves and competition in the region should be resolved through diplomacy and international regulations,” Rowhani was quoted as saying. The report said the two countries plan to enhance their cooperation in the industrial, tourism and information technology sectors. They also plan educational exchanges involving university students and teachers. Iran currently exports nearly $250 million worth of oil, agricultural and fishery products to Vietnam. It imports some $100 million worth of rubber, cellphones and canning materials.

ISIS woman killed recently in Saudi shrouded in mystery
Al Arabiya/Monday, 14 March 2016/The wife of an ISIS member living outside Saudi Arabia was killed during an operation aimed to capture a militant commander north of the kingdom. The machine-gun toting woman named Banan Hilal is shrouded in mystery. Before Hilal was shot by the Saudi security forces, she lived with a man said to be pretending to be her husband.

Engineers race to stop collapse of massive Mosul dam
Reuters, Baghdad Monday, 14 March 2016/Italian engineers hired to help prevent a catastrophic collapse of Iraq’s largest hydro-electric dam will need at least two months to assess the structure before starting major maintenance work, a Water Resources Ministry spokesman told Reuters. Mahdi Rasheed Mahdi said it might be six months before work began on the Mosul dam as Italy’s Trevi Group needed to bring in specialist equipment to plug gaps caused by erosion.The dam, near the northern city of Mosul, was built in the 1980s on a friable gypsum layer on the Tigris and needs constant repairs to avoid disaster. Maintenance work was disrupted for two weeks in August 2014 when the dam was captured by Islamic State militants seeking to carve a caliphate in captured territory in Iraq and Syria.The dam’s seizure prompted concerns that irreparable damage to the structure’s foundations may have been caused. Collapse would devastate Mosul and other cities along the river, including the Iraqi capital Baghdad, and cause hundreds of thousands of casualties.“They need two to six months and this was a request by the company,” Mahdi said by telephone. “The company needs time to import their equipment and this definitely takes time. We have already anticipated this.”Mahdi said there was no imminent threat of collapse as some maintenance work was being carried out but more was needed to stabilize the structure. The Trevi contract would not provide a permanent solution, he added. The dam was retaken by Kurdish Peshmerga fighters with the help of US-led coalition air strikes, and Iraq signed a 273 million euro (around $300 million), 18-month deal with Trevi to reinforce and maintain the 3.6 km-long (2.2 miles) structure. Italy has said it planned to send 450 troops to protect the dam, which is close to territory held by ISIS fighters.

Two UAE fighter pilots killed in jet crash in Yemen

By Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Monday, 14 March 2016/The Arab coalition said on Monday that two Emirati pilots were killed after their jet crashed in Yemen. The Saudi state news agency SPA said that the crash was caused by “technical difficulties.”Earlier today the UAE said that a fighter jet had gone missing during a Yemen combat mission. "The Supreme Command of the Armed Forces announced today that a fighter jet taking part in the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia... in Yemen was missing," said a statement on the official WAM news agency. The UAE is a major backer of the Arab -led coalition fighting on behalf of Yemen's internationally recognized government against Houthi militias that control the capital Sanaa and other parts of the country.

‘Iran spy ring’ to appear in Saudi court
Saudi Gazette, Riyadh Monday, 14 March 2016/The ring of 32 people accused of spying for Iran in Saudi Arabia will appear before the Criminal Court in Riyadh again on Monday to listen to the confessions they have made during investigations and submit their written or verbal replies to the charges against them. The spies include 30 Saudis, an Iranian and an Afghan citizen. Saudi’s Makkah Arabic daily said on Sunday that the spies will appear before the court in groups of two each time. The court recessed its first session on Feb. 23 after giving each of the defendants a paper containing the charges against him. The judge in the case asked them to prepare their replies to the second round of the sessions beginning on Monday. He also asked them to assign lawyers or ask the court to do this for them. According to court sources, the attorney general asked for capital punishment for 25 of them. They said the punishment would be applied against them if their conspiracy against the country was proved beyond doubt. They were accused of high treason, liaising with Iranian intelligence elements, meeting with some of them in Iran and Lebanon, meeting with Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei and passing over to Iran classified military and civil data about Saudi Arabia. The spies were also accused of maintaining contacts with a number of Iranian officials and diplomats at the embassy in Riyadh, the consulate in Jeddah and the Iranian mission to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The court sources revealed that a Saudi defendant is a nuclear physicist, another an owner of a local Hajj company, a third a soldier at the Hajj military forces, the fourth an educationist with long years of experience while others are bankers, government officials and businessmen. They were surprised that the attorney general did not call for capital punishment for the Iranian who speaks fluent Arabic and refused to appoint a lawyer saying he would defend himself. The spies were arrested in March-May 2013.

ISIS returns to Iraqi town
AFP, Baghdad Monday, 14 March 2016/The ISIS group on Monday returned to the desert town of Rutba in western Iraq, less than a day after vacating it, officials said. The mayor of the remote town in Anbar province had warned when ISIS pulled out that the militant organization may just be testing the population’s allegiance. “Daesh (ISIS) has re-established its control on the city of Rutba... which it had left the previous day,” said a senior officer in the Jazeera Operations Command in charge of the area. “Daesh came back from Al-Qaim with armored vehicles and artillery,” the officer said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “They deployed them on the outskirts of the town and at the main entrances, as if to defend it from any attack by the security forces,” he said. “However, Daesh’s foreign leaders previously based in Rutba did not return,” he said. Rutba lies about 390 kilometers (245 miles) west of Baghdad on the road to Jordan. Imad Ahmed, the town’s mayor, said “it was like a trick played by ISIS on the locals.” He had told AFP after ISIS’s pullout on Sunday that the jihadist group may be trying to lure out members of the population secretly cooperating with the security forces. Ahmed and Raja Barakat, the head of the Anbar provincial council’s security committee, confirmed that the foreign ISIS fighters in Rutba had not returned. Military officials had warned after the ISIS pullback on Sunday that the Iraqi security forces could not move in immediately to take over the town ISIS had abandoned. Rutba is far from the government forces’ main bases and any large-scale operation would require planning and the approval of the country’s top military leadership.

Turkey strikes Kurdish targets in Iraq after blast
AP, Ankara Monday, 14 March 2016/Turkey’s air force hit Kurdish rebel targets in northern Iraq on Monday, hours after a suicide car bombing in the capital killed 37 people and heightened tensions with the militants. Nine F-16s and two F-4 jets raided 18 positions of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, in northern Iraq, including the Qandil mountains where the group’s leadership is based, the state-run Anadolu Agency reported. Ammunition depots, bunkers and shelters were among the targets hit. Police, meanwhile, carried out raids in the southern city of Adana, detaining suspected 38 suspected PKK rebels, the agency reported. Fifteen suspected Kurdish militants were also detained in Istanbul, Anadolu said. Health Minister Mehmet Muezzinoglu said three more people died overnight from wounds suffered in the Sunday night's suicide attack that targeted buses and people waiting at bus stops in the heart of Ankara. Around 125 people were wounded in the blast, with 71 people still hospitalized. Of those, 15 were in serious condition. A senior government official told The Associated Press that authorities believe the attack was carried out by two bombers - one of them a woman - and was the work of Kurdish militants. He spoke on condition of anonymity because the investigation was continuing. It was the second deadly attack blamed on Kurdish militants in the capital in the past month and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to bring “terrorism to its knees.”On Feb. 17, a suicide car-bombing in the capital targeted buses carrying military personnel, killing 29 people. A Kurdish militant group, which is an offshoot of the PKK, claimed responsibility. Turkey is grappling with a host of issues, including renewed fighting with Kurdish rebels, tensions with a Syrian Kurdish militia group which is affiliated with the PKK, threats from the Islamic State group and a Syrian refugee crisis. About 210 people have died in five suicide bombings in Turkey since July that were blamed either on the Kurdish rebels or the Islamic State group. “All five attacks are linked to the fallout of the Syrian civil war,” said Soner Cagaptay, a Turkey expert at the Washington Institute in emailed comments. “Ankara’s ill-executed Syria policy ... has exposed Turkey to great risks.” “The question, unfortunately, is not if there will be a terror attack again, but when the next attack will be,” Cagaptay said.
Sunday’s blast came as Turkey’s security forces were preparing to launch large-scale operations against militants in two mainly Kurdish towns after authorities imposed curfews there, prompting some residents to flee. The operation in the town of Nusaybin, on the border with Syria, began on Monday, Anadolu reported. Tanks have also been deployed at the town of Yuksekova, near the border with Iraq, but it wasn't immediately clear when the offensive there would start. Authorities on Monday announced another curfew, to go into effect at 2100 GMT (5 p.m. EDT) in the city of Sirnak, near the border with Iraq, signaling that the military was also preparing to battle Kurdish militants there. Turkey has been imposing curfews in several flashpoints in the southeast since August to root out militants linked to the PKK, who had set up barricades, dug trenches and planted explosives. The military operations have raised concerns over human rights violations and scores of civilian deaths. Tens of thousands of people have also been displaced by the fighting.
Last week, Turkey's military ended a three-month operation against the militants in the historic Sur district of Diyarbakir - the largest city in the country's mostly Kurdish southeast. On Sunday, authorities eased the curfew in some streets and one neighborhood of Sur, but the siege over the district's main areas was still in place. The PKK has been designated a terror organization by Turkey, the U.S. and the European Union. A fragile peace process between the PKK and the Turkish state collapsed in July, reigniting a battle that has cost tens of thousands of lives since 1984. As Turkey on Monday began to hold funeral services for at least 17 of the people who lost their lives, details emerged about some of the victims, which included the father of Galatasaray soccer team player Umut Bulut. Anadolu said the player’s father, Kemal Bulut, had watched Galatasaray play Ankara-based team Genclerbirligi in the city - after visiting his son at his hotel - and was returning home when the explosion occurred. Umut Bulut had returned to Istanbul in the evening unaware that his father had been caught up in the blast and learnt of his father's death as he prepared to start training on Monday. Police officer Nevzat Alagoz, who also perished in the blast, was waiting for a bus to take him home after policing the game, Anadolu reported. Another victim, Ozan Akkus, a 19-year-old engineering student, had lost his close friend in deadly twin suicide bombings that targeted a peace rally in the capital in October, Hurriyet newspaper said. Soon after Sunday’s blast, Ankara residents rushed to hospitals and morgues for news of missing loved ones. Ridvan Baskiran said he went to several hospitals searching for his cousin, Kubra Pekgenc, who was working at a mall near the blast scene. “We kept trying to call her, but it was ringing busy,” Baskiran said. “We went around from hospital to hospital and we finally found her. She had brain surgery.”

Palestinian-American member of ISIS surrenders: Iraqi general
AP | Irbil (Iraq) Monday, 14 March 2016/A Palestinian-American member of ISIS on Monday gave himself up to an Iraqi Kurdish military unit in the country”s north, an Iraqi Kurdish general said. The circumstances of the surrender were not fully disclosed but it marked a rare instance in which an ISIS fighter voluntarily gave himself up to Iraqi or Kurdish forces in Iraq. In neighboring Syria, meanwhile, Syrian Kurdish fighters battling the ISIS, have told The Associated Press that they are seeing an increase in the number of ISIS members surrendering following recent territorial losses. Maj. Gen. Feisal Helkani of the Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga forces, which are playing a key role along with the Iraqi military in battling the extremist ISIS group, identified the individual who surrendered as Mohammed Jamal Amin. Helkani said the man is a Palestinian-American who has been fighting with ISIS in Iraq and who surrendered on Monday morning near the town of Sinjar, which was retaken by Iraqi forces from ISIS militants late last year. According to Helkani, Amin was carrying with him a large amount of cash, three cell phones and three forms of identification, including a U.S. driving license. The ISIS fighter is currently being held by the peshmerga troops for interrogation, Helkani added.

Indonesia detains 14 people allegedly heading to Syria

AFP | Jakarta Monday, 14 March 2016/Indonesia has detained 14 people, including several children, as they allegedly tried to travel to Syria, police said, where hundreds of their countrymen have joined extremist groups like ISIS.
The Indonesians were stopped Sunday at the international airport serving Jakarta as they tried to board a flight to Bangkok, from where they planned to continue on to Syria, Jakarta police spokesman Muhammad Iqbal said. Among those identified were a family of five with three children from Tangerang, west of Jakarta, Iqbal said in a statement late Sunday. Five others, including at least one child, were from the Indonesian part of Borneo island. The group is being held at the airport while police work to establish the identities of the remaining suspects. Hundreds of Indonesians, many in families, have travelled to join the militants since they seized large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq and proclaimed a “caliphate”. As of December 2015, more than 200 Indonesians had been deported by Turkey after trying and failing to enter Syria, Jakarta-based think-tank the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict said in a report last month. The flow of Indonesians heading to join ISIS and other extremist groups has sparked fears that sophisticated terror networks could be revived in the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country. ISIS claimed a January suicide and gun assault in Jakarta that left four militants and four civilians dead, and was the first major terror attack in the country for seven years.


Iran’s Free Hand in Testing Dangerous Ballistic Missiles

By Joseph A. Klein /Canada Free Press/March 14, 2016
The United Nations Security Council met in an “emergency” closed door session on Monday March 14th to discuss Iran’s recent testing of ballistic missiles reportedly designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons. The words “Israel must be wiped out” were written in Hebrew on the side of the missiles. These most recent tests followed in the wake of missile tests conducted last fall, which the Security Council did nothing about at the time. While North Korea was finally hit with more UN sanctions for its nuclear and missile tests, North Korea’s nuclear weapons collaborators in Iran continue to be let off the hook without even a slap on the wrist. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power told reporters, after the March 14th meeting produced no concrete results, that she will keep trying “no matter the quibbling that we heard today about this and that.” She said that Iran’s missile tests were “in defiance of provisions of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, the resolution that came into effect on January 16, on Implementation Day for the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action].” The quibbler in chief is Russia. Its UN ambassador said that Iran has not violated the resolution and that there was no need for any punitive measures against Iran. Special: John Goodman Loses 100lbs - So Skinny He's Unrecognizable
The truth is that the Obama administration is now hoisted with its own petard. Ambassador Power complained that “Russia seems to be lawyering its way to look for reasons not to act rather than stepping up and being prepared to shoulder our collective responsibility.” Yet that would not have been as easy for Russia to do if the Obama administration had not allowed a loophole in the nuclear deal wide enough for Iran to fire a whole bunch of missiles through. President Obama wanted the nuclear deal with Iran so badly that he gave in to Iran’s last minute demands to preserve its missile program. Iran insisted that all prior UN Security Council resolutions which had unambiguously prohibited Iran’s development, testing or procurement of ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons must be terminated.
Otherwise, Iran would not go forward with the JCPOA. To make matters worse, even though Iran had held the JCPOA hostage to its missile demands, the Obama administration also bowed to Iran’s insistence that its missile program would not be covered by the JCPOA itself. Thus, Iran would not be subject to the automatic “snap back” of sanctions when Iran is found to have violated the JCPOA, because its missile tests would be outside the scope of the JCPOA. In fact, the Obama administration agreed to language in the JCPOA to clarify that such separation of Iran’s missile program from the JCPOA was the intent. All reliance for dealing with Iran’s missile tests would be placed on the much weaker Security Council Resolution 2231.
The new Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the JCPOA but drafted as separate from the JCPOA, used weaker language than the outright prohibition that had existed under the prior resolutions that were now superseded. Calling upon Iran to refrain from doing something is not the same as an enforceable ban. Moreover, even this insipid “call upon” language is included in an annex to the resolution. This annex is little more than a statement of intent by the parties negotiating with Iran, which Iran does not consider binding on itself. The Obama administration missed the window of opportunity to clamp down on Iran’s missile testing when those tests were being conducted last fall. The previous Security Council resolutions that prohibited Iran’s missile program outright, and the sanctions regime against Iran, were then still in effect. Those resolutions were referenced in the JCPOA itself as still being binding until the JCPOA was actually implemented. Implementation in turn was dependent on verification of Iran’s compliance with certain commitments set forth in the JCPOA having to do with its enrichment and plutonium programs. Until the JCPOA’s formal implementation date of January 16, 2016, when those resolutions were terminated, the missile program ban had not been technically untethered from the JCPOA.
All the Obama administration had to do last fall was to declare Iran in breach of the JCPOA because the missile ban under those resolutions that Iran breached were effectively incorporated into the JCPOA until terminated. The sanctions were still in place. Iran’s assets were still frozen. Russia’s “lawyering” would have done it little good last fall when the United States still had the upper hand both legally and in practical terms. But President Obama frittered away the last real chance to hold Iran’s feet to the fire before the sanctions were lifted. He wanted the nuclear deal to go forward as a centerpiece of his “legacy” and let the next president worry about its fallout.
In fact, instead of pressing the case against Iran and threatening to walk away from the JCPOA when he had the leverage, Secretary of State John Kerry actually defended Iran’s position on its missile tests. “The issue of ballistic missiles is addressed by the provisions of the new United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR), which do not constitute provisions of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),” Kerry wrote in a letter to Senator Marco Rubio last September. “Since the Security Council has called upon Iran not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology, any such activity would be inconsistent with the UNSCR and a serious matter for the Security Council to review.” Rubio raised his concern with Kerry that the language in the new Security Council resolution did not appear to require Iran to refrain from pursuing its ballistic missile tests. Rubio seized upon the weak “call upon” language discussed earlier as the basis for his concern. Kerry’s response was that “if Iran were to undertake them it would be inconsistent with the UNSCR and a serious matter for the Security Council to review.”
Senator Rubio had a right to be concerned. Kerry had deliberately agreed to a circular process to deal with Iran’s missile program violations, which was doomed to fail. To placate Iran, he kicked the can down the road until the JCPOA was actually implemented and the prior, much stronger Security Council missile resolutions that were initially tied into the JCPOA by reference went away. The separation of the JCPOA and the new Security Council resolution was completed as of the formal implementation date. Kerry had to know that once the JCPOA was implemented and in full force, with sanctions lifted and the missile program separated out from the JCPOA with its automatic “snap back” provisions, Russia would likely veto any separate sanctions resolution against its ally and missile purchaser based on Iran’s missile tests. The American people got suckered by President Obama’s reckless concessions.
Iran not only will have a pathway to nuclear enrichment sufficient to produce nuclear weapons when the deal’s restrictions sunset – if not before. Thanks to the Obama administration, Iran presently has a free hand to develop and test ballistic missiles capable of delivering those nuclear weapons along any pathway of attack it chooses.


Elevated security for Jerusalem Marathon. Alert for Palestinian car bombs
DEBKAfile Special Report March 13, 2016
Extra soldiers, police and other security personnel are to be drafted in to secure the annual Jerusalem marathon taking place next Friday (March 18). Intelligence authorities are preparing in case Palestinian terrorists use the event for a another surge of violence after hitting three Israeli towns during US Vice President Joe Biden’s two-day visit last week. Israeli security authorities are on the lookout for drive-by shootings from moving cars or even the first Palestinian car bombings. So far, 5,300 runners have registered for the Jerusalem Marathon, which covers a 42-km course through the streets of the capital, Almost half are visitors from nine countries.  The current Palestinian “intifada” has escalated constantly since it erupted last September. Of late, the knifings, rocks and car attacks on pedestrians have been ramped up to gunfire and explosive devices. debkafile’s counterterrorism sources disclose that Palestinian terror planners are said to be gearing up for their first car bombings in Israel’s main cities. Israeli security and the Shin Bet domestic intelligence service are in a race against time to hunt down and forestall these outrages. An intensive effort is underway to nip in the bud the next shooting and firebomb attacks, by disabling the clandestine Palestinian workshops that are producing weapons for terrorist attacks, especially Karl Gustav automatic machine guns.
Gangs of two or three shooters are being recruited for automatic gun shootings coupled with lobbed firebombs.
The hunt is also on for the agents distributing these guns around Palestinian towns.
Late last week, a black-glad, masked terrorist standing by the roadside near Othniel threw a pipe bomb at an Israel car as it drove past. The car was rocked by the blast but no one was hurt.
The next day, Saturday March 12, the IDF placed under lockdown the Palestinian village of Beit Ur A-Tachta, where two drive-by gunmen took refuge after shooting up a checkpoint on Rte 443 near Jerusalem and injuring two soldiers – neither seriously, The village overlooks the key highway.
This attack was especially provoking as it happened on a stretch of Rte 443 that is heavily patrolled by soldiers and monitored by high-grade devices. Yet the gunmen managed a shooting attack and then got clean away.
Indeed, the last two attacks, which looked like the opening shoots of the next ramped-up stage of Palesitnian terror, had this in common: Both perpetrators managed to escape. That alone bespoke the involvement of professional terrorists, in contrast to the lone knifemen who are mostly shot dead on the spot or otherwise neutralized by security personnel nearby.
Sunday, March 13, it was revealed that on March 1, an IDF paratroop unit raided and demolished clandestine workshops in Nablus that were turning out improvised Karl Gustav automatic machine guns; on March 11, 15 of these homemade firearms were found hidden at Yaabed, a village near Jenin.
debkafile’s military sources report that this was the first serious IDF-cum-Shin Bet operation to cut down Palestinian arms and explosives manufacturing in Judea and Samaria.
Nablus and Yaabed were just the tip of the iceberg. This illicit munitions industry has been thriving during years of Israeli neglect. Nablus was generally known to be the hub of the illegal production of homemade Karl Gustav automatic machineguns - not just for Palestinian terrorists but also for sale to Israeli Arabs across the Green Line. This extended market came to light on March 1 last year, when an Israeli Arab shot up a café on Dizengoff St, Tel Aviv, murdering murdered two Israelis.


Mr Obama, We are Not ‘Free Riders’
Prince Turki Al-Faisal/Asharq Alawsat/March 14/16
No, Mr. Obama. We are not “free riders.” We shared with you our intelligence that prevented deadly terrorist attacks on America.
We initiated the meetings that led to the coalition that is fighting ISIS , and we train and fund the Syrian freedom fighters, who fight the biggest terrorist, Bashar Assad and the other terrorists, Al-Nusrah and ISIS. We offered boots on the ground to make that coalition more effective in eliminating the terrorists.
We initiated the support — military, political and humanitarian — that is helping the Yemeni people reclaim their country from the murderous militia, the Houthis, who, with the support of the Iranian leadership, tried to occupy Yemen; without calling for American forces. We established a coalition of more than thirty Muslim countries to fight all shades of terrorism in the world.
We are the biggest contributors to the humanitarian relief efforts to help refugees from Syria, Yemen and Iraq. We combat extremist ideology that attempts to hijack our religion, on all levels. We are the sole funders of the United Nations Counter-terrorism Center, which pools intelligence, political, economic, and human resources, worldwide. We buy US treasury bonds, with small interest returns, that help your country’s economy.
We send thousands of our students to your universities, at enormous expense, to acquire knowledge and knowhow. We host over 30,000 American citizens and pay them top dollar in our businesses and industry for their skills. Your secretaries of state and defense have often publicly praised the level of cooperation between our two countries.
Your treasury department officials have publicly praised Saudi Arabia’s measures to curtail any financing that might reach terrorists. Our King Salman met with you, last September, and accepted your assurances that the nuclear deal you struck with the Iranian leadership will prevent their acquiring nuclear weapons for the duration of the deal. You noted “the Kingdom’s leadership role in the Arab and Islamic world.”
The two of you affirmed the “need, in particular, to counter Iran’s destabilizing activities.” Now, you throw us a curve ball. You accuse us of fomenting sectarian strife in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. You add insult to injury by telling us to share our world with Iran, a country that you describe as a supporter of terrorism and which you promised our king to counter its “destabilizing activities.”
Could it be that you are petulant about the Kingdom’s efforts to support the Egyptian people when they rose against the Muslim Brothers’ government and you supported it? Or is it the late King Abdullah’s (God rest his soul) bang on the table when he last met you and told you “No more red lines, Mr. President.”
Or is it because you have pivoted to Iran so much that you equate the Kingdom’s 80 years of constant friendship with America to an Iranian leadership that continues to describe America as the biggest enemy, that continues to arm, fund and support sectarian militias in the Arab and Muslim world, that continues to harbor and host Al-Qaeda leaders, that continues to prevent the election of a Lebanese president through Hezbollah, which is identified by your government as a terrorist organization, that continues to kill the Syrian Arab people in league with Bashar Assad?
No, Mr. Obama. We are not the “free riders” that to whom you refer. We lead from the front and we accept our mistakes and rectify them. We will continue to hold the American people as our ally and don’t forget that when the chips were down, and George Herbert Walker Bush sent American soldiers to repel with our troops Saddam’s aggression against Kuwait, soldiers stood shoulder to shoulder with soldiers. Mr. Obama, that is who we are.
****HRH Prince Turki Al-Faisal is the co-founder of the King Faisal Foundation and Chairman of the Board of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies. He acted as Adviser to the Saudi Royal Court during 1972–1977, then heading the Kingdom’s intelligence service from 1977&38211;2002, after which he became Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom until 2005, and Ambassador to the United States until 2007. He studied at Princeton, Cambridge, and Georgetown universities.

Obama’s Bubble
Tariq Alhomayed//Asharq Alawsat/March 14/16
The Atlantic magazine published a long story about the US President Barack Obama and his view of foreign policy under the title “The Obama Doctrine”. As a result, Arab newspapers said that Obama is attacking Saudi Arabia and hates Arabs.
It is wrong to portray Obama’s view as a stance against Arabs or Saudi Arabia as this is not true. We should not move emotionally in this direction, as Obama’s view is not about a specific party and shows that he lives in a bubble where he prefers to read fiction rather than books on politics or history. He probably also reads reports presented to him and thus demonstrates that the president is able to ignore and override institutions in America!
What the magazine published is not against a particular individual because Obama criticised everyone except Iran and Russia, of course. He criticised the Europeans, the former French President Nicolas Sarkozy and described the British Prime Minister David Cameron as “absent minded”.
He criticized Netanyahu, the Turkish President and Gulf states and is of the opinion that they seek to use America’s “muscles” to serve their interests and demand a free ride! The article also stated that Obama told a foreign guest that he had heard a member of congress criticising him and told the foreign guest that he should have confronted the member over those criticisms. Obama also interrupted the Israeli Prime Minister whilst he was explaining the circumstances of the region by asking him whether he believes that the first African-American president and the son of a mother who provided for him financially does not know the region!
All of this indicates that we are dealing with a man who lives in a bubble, is full of arrogance and idealism. He dreamt of seeing Wael Ghoneim as the president of Egypt and according to The Atlantic, thinks that ISIS does not constitute an internal threat to America but that climate change does! It is also said that he called for the departure of Bashar Al-Assad because he believed that Al-Assad would leave at the same speed as the former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak!
The article also shows that Obama criticised the former and current Secretaries of State Hillary Clinton and John Kerry respectively. It also indicates that he was irritated by his ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power as well as the US National Security Advisor Susan Rice, and that he was worried that the reports submitted to him were misleading and would lead to foreign interventions that he did not want to undertake. What is worse is that his close team describes the street on which the most important research centre in Washington is located as the Arab occupied area. After this, can it be said that Obama, who has attacked Arab societies and their values just as he attacked Europeans, hates Arabs or only Saudi Arabia?
Of course not, by attacking everyone including members of his administration and his western allies, the article published by “The New Atlantic” shows that the president lives in a bubble, is a dreamer and is frustrated. He rushed into attacking everyone before he left and here is his administration trying to limit the damage caused by his undiplomatic views.


'This isn't a lone wolf intifada, it's a Hamas intifada'
Ariela Ringel Hoffman/Ynetnews/March 14/16
New study by terrorism expert claims that Israel is not dealing with individual attackers, but rather a coordinated effort led by Hamas, which is an expert in covering its tracks. The defense establishment, however, is still convinced this is an intifada of 'lone wolves.'
Bashar Mohammed Masalha is a 22-year old "lone wolf" attacker according to the Shin Bet, the IDF, and the police. Masalha, an illegal alien in Israel from the Palestinian village of Haja near Qalqiliya, went on a stabbing spree on Tuesday evening from Jaffa Port to the promenade, wounding eleven people and killing an American tourist.
Abd al-Rahman Radad from the West Bank village of Al-Zawiya near Tulkarm stabbed a yeshiva student in Petah Tikva on the same day, and is also a "lone wolf" attacker according to the security services' definition. So are Fuad Abu Rajab al-Tamimi from the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Issawiya, who shot two police officers in East Jerusalem, and Fadwa Abu Tir, who attempted to stab Border Police officers that same morning in the Old City.
Four terrorists, apparently with no organizational affiliation, that nobody sent, in another bloody day of the third intifada - the intifada of the lone wolves.
Except that last Tuesday was not just another coincidental day of blood spilling in the ongoing wave of terror attacks. On March 8, 2003, Israel assassinated Dr. Ibrahim al-Makhadmeh, who was sitting in his car in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza with three other Hamas terrorists. It was a major blow to the terror organization because al-Makhadmeh, a dentist, was one of Hamas’ founders and most prominent ideologues, second only to Ahmad Yassin.
Al-Makhadmeh is the one who wrote that armed resistance is the only path to independence “even if it costs the death of half of the Palestinian nation.” Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh also mentioned him in his speech last Tuesday, and in the same breath praised the terrorists for their contribution to the Palestinian struggle. And, indeed, the Facebook pages of two of the terrorists, as well as other findings, prove that Haniyeh had good reason to refer to them as martyrs on behalf of Hamas. And indeed, after the Tuesday attacks, Hamas published four identical statements on Facebook blessing and praising “its martyred sons and daughters.”
A look at Masalha’s Facebook page, shows he shared Hamas content and expressed solidarity with the Islamic movement long before he carried out the attack in Jaffa; that he was very religious and on on February 28 performed the Umra (a pilgrimage to Mecca that is not done during a Hajj); that he loved the "Mourabitoun" (literally, those who hold the fort), members of that organization which is affiliated to Hamas, who would sacrifice their lives for the land of Palestine. On the night of the attack, he wrote, “We are in our holy land and we do not fear our enemy or its force.”
One of the members of the Mourabitoun is Fadwa Abu Tir, a relative of the orange-bearded Mohammed Abu Tir, who ran as Hamas’ second candidate for the Palestinian Legislative Council in January 2006. Sheikh Kamal Khatib, the deputy head of the Northern Branch of the Islamic movement in Israel, said that she died while fulfilling her duty as a woman on International Women’s Day.
Seventeen-year-old Radad, who carried out the attack in Petah Tikva, comes from a family that has been affiliated with Hamas for many years. Two other Radads were arrested: Muatasem Radad was sentenced to 20 years in prison for planning a terror attack, and Iyad Radad carried out a suicide attack on Allenby Street in Tel Aviv in September 2002. Hamas claimed responsibility for the Allenby Street attack six years later, in accordance with policies outlined in a Hamas document on "lone wolf" attacks.
This book-length document written by Rajeb Hassan Al-Baba summarizes the principles for carrying attacks with "the white weapon"- a code name for knife attacks. It says, “Attacks should have the characteristics of a lone wolf attack.” It continues, “One who carries out an individual attack, should work on his own and not consult with anyone beforehand. Moreover, the knife used to stab the enemy should be obtained from the attacker's house or from a store.” The document, which details what appear to be instructions for terrorists on how to carry out stabbing attacks, is available on Hamas’ website. "This system of operations," the author of the document notes, “would ensure that the Shin Bet and Israeli security services will not be monitor the attacker, expect him, or predict anything that would allow them to foil the attack.” The document goes on to say that, “The attacker should yell ‘Allahu Akbar’ (God is great) before, during, and after the stabbing, while finding creative ways to achieve that objective. The daring execution, by using the element of surprise, will confuse the enemy.”
Although these guidelines were written after the first intifada, under the title "The Efforts of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the Palestinian Intifada 1987-1994,” they appear more relevant now than ever before, and likely serve as guidelines for the "knife intifada" attackers, some of whom were not even born during when the document was written. The guidelines reveal Hamas’ efforts to make these escalations in violence appear as a series of "lone wolf" attacks in order to cover its own involvement. And, beyond anything else, these guidelines beg the question whether this is indeed a "lone wolf intifada" of young men and women who wake up in the morning, take a knife from their mothers’ kitchens and go out to kill Jews – or is it an organized wave of terror attacks that Hamas and other terror organizations guide and encourage.
Weakening the deterrence
Orientalist Dr. Shaul Bartal of the Begin Sadat Center of Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan university, has recently completed a study titled "The Jerusalem Intifada – a study of the terror wave in Jerusalem 2014-2015." The somewhat unimaginative title hides harsh criticism of the security establishment, even if it is worded in restrained academic language. It casts doubt on the "lone wolf" attacker theory, which is rampant throughout the security forces, academia and media.
"This study," Bartal writes, “does not accept as given the often posited claim from various sources that these are 'lone wolf' attacks.” Not only does he not accept this claim, but in his opinion it also “makes it harder to characterize the potential attacker and helps to explain the failure of the security establishment in preventing the attacks. It also makes it harder for any administrative judicial action whose aim is to harm the attackers’ close family, and thus weakening the deterrence against similar terror attacks.”
"The current struggle," writes Bartal, "is different than previous escalations of violence. The modus operandi this time is that of 'lone wolf' attackers who, although they belong to Palestinian terror organizations, carry them out without any proven connection or direct order from the organization they belong to."
According to the study, which examined a series of attacks, this is a deliberate policy of Hamas, "which is aware of the many advantages and the protection that deception and obscuration provides its operatives, their families and the organization's institutions. The Sunni organization uses the concept of concealment ('taqiyyah') which is more common in Shiite Islam, in order to make political and propaganda gains, mostly in order to change its image as a terror organization and present itself to the world as a legitimate organization. This is in contrast to the smaller organizations, such as Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), which claimed responsibility for the attacks that their operatives carried out."
His conclusion is that “the terror attacks that Israel is suffering are not 'lone wolf' attacks, but rather showy attacks from the Palestinian terror organizations that view these attacks as their way of taking revenge against the Zionsts."
Twenty-eight Israelis were murdered in 2015, most of them since October, when the escalation began: 25 civilians and three members of security forces. According to statistics released by the Shin Bet recently, this is the largest number of people killed in terror attacks since 2008, when 38 Israelis were murdered. These statistics do not include the civilians and troops who were murdered since the beginning of 2016.
According to statistics the Shin Bet provided Yedioth Ahronoth, 70 percent of the attacks in 2015 were defined "lone wolf attacks." Out of 170 attackers, 142 had no ties to any organization, only 13 were affiliated with Hamas, four with Fatah, three with the Islamic Jihad, the rest were affiliated with other organizations.
“Most of them”, the Shin Bet determines, “were suffering from economic, familial and social problems for a while, and only close to the time of the attack there adopted the idea of doing something for the Palestinian cause. Others, who were suffering from suicidal tendencies, saw in the escalation an opportunity to fulfill their wishes in a socially accepted and respected manner - as shahids (martyrs) and not as suicides. A considerable amount of the attacker were moved to action following exposure to inciting content on social media and Palestinian media, especially media associated with Hamas, but also with the Palestinian Authority. In some of the attacks, the terror organizations claimed responsibility or 'adopted' them after the fact, even though there was no connection between the attacker and the organization before the attack.
“Furthermore, some of the attackers expressed contempt by the factions' behavior and acted because they did not feel confidence in the established organizations to defend Palestinians. For example, Bahaa Elian, who committed an attack in East Talpiot on October 13, 2015, posted a will on his Facebook page in which he clarified: 'I prohibit the factions to claim responsibilities for my holy death. My death was for the homeland and not for you.'
Diana Hawilah, who was arrested in December 2015 after working with her twin sister Nadia to gather weapons and establish a terror cell, was questioned by the Shin Bet about her political views. When she was asked whom she would vote for if elections took place, she rejected the entire political system and said, ‘I cross them all out.'"
Hamas flags at the funeral
No organizational affiliation? Not according to Dr. Bartal, who reviewed 17 attacks that took place between July 2014 and August 2015, before the current escalation. All of these attacks were described as "lone wolf" attacks as well. But Bartal’s study concludes that aside from a single case, all of the terrorists belonged to a terror organization, “although it's hard to determine how involved they were in the organization's operations."
Bartal notes each one. From March to May 2015, for example, there were four vehiclular attacks. Two of the attackers, Khaled Kutina and Fadi Saleh, were from the Shuafat refugee camp. They were both caught after the act and admitted to having ties to the Hamas operative Ibrahim al-Akari, who committed a vehicular attack at a Jerusalem light rail station on November 5, 2014. Al-Akari himself, as well as Abed a-Rahman a-Shaludi, were arrested and questioned before the attack about they activities on behalf of Hamas, but they were release. Ibrahim al-Akari is the brother of Musa al-Akari, one of Nachson Waxman’s kidnappers in 1994. Al-Shaludi is also the nephew of Muhi a-Din Sharif, the successor of Hamas’ "Engineer" Yahya Ayyash, who was himself nicknamed "Engineer 2." Hamas, Bartal emphasizes, said that al-Akari and a-Shaludi are also its members.
In another vehicular attack on May 20, 2015, the terrorist Hamdan Abu Dhaim, a resident of Jabal Mukabar, was a relative of Alaa Abu Dhaim, a member of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades who committed the the Mercaz HaRav Yeshiva massacre. During Abu Dhaim's grand funeral, which took place in the village he was born in, Hamas flags were flown.
Even after concluding his research, Bartal continues monitoring terror attacks, and his findings, he says, are still valid now, even to last week’s attacks.
Israa Jaabis, who drove a booby-trapped car to the checkpoint near Ma’aleh Adumim on October 11, 2015, is the cousin of Muhammad Naif Jaabis, who committed a tractor attack in August 2014. She is defined as a "lone wolf," but she came from Jericho with a booby-trapped vehicle, which she probably did not booby-trap herself.
Bezeq technician Alaa Abu Jamal, who committed a vehicular attack at a Jerusalem bus stop on October 13, 2015, was related to Uday and Ghassan Abu-Jamal, members of the Popular Front that committed the Har Nof synagogue massacre. He was interviewed by the Palestinian media, justified their actions, and a year later went out to carry out an attack himself.
On February 26, 2016, Mahmud Shaalan tried to stab soldiers at a Beit El checkpoint. He was shot and killed. He decided to carry out the attack on the anniversary of the Baruch Goldstein massacre, and during the funeral the terrorist’s body was covered with Fatah’s flag. His Facebook page, as well as other things published after his death, revealed that he was a Fatah operative.
Hamas, by the way, makes detailed lists of these attacks, and does not boast about shahids that don’t belong to it. Hamas’ research department publishes monthly and yearly reports. Last month, it published the summary for the year 2015. Overall, 5,383 terror attacks ("operations," in their parlance), among them 156 knife attacks (in 99 of which “no Zionist was stabbed or killed”) 42 vehicular attacks, 123 shooting attacks, 193 bombings, and 1,043 Molotov cocktail attacks. The most active month, according to their graph, was October, when 1,328 operations were documented. Most of the operations were in Jerusalem, 1,215 in the city itself and 808 in its suburbs (Palestinian villages and Jewish settlements that are close to it). In Ramallah, there were 989 operations, while Hebron saw 833 attacks.
The Hamas report states the number of Israeli casualties: In 2015, 29 “Zionists” were killed, and an additional 755 were wounded. Fifteen of them were killed in stabbings, nine in shooting attacks, and four in vehicular attacks. Twenty-four were killed in the “Jerusalem intifada,” as they call it, meaning from October 1, 2015. The report's authors also calculated the ratio of “dead Zionists” and “shahids”: One dead Zionist to four shahids in vehicular attacks, one to five in stabbing attacks, and three Zionists to two shahids in shooting attacks.
February’s report, released last week, counts nine stabbings, 69 Molotov cocktail attacks, 17 shooting attacks and 19 explosive attacks. Nineteen shahids were killed and 237 Palestinians were wounded. The Zionists suffered three losses and 39 injuries. The data, by the way, is completely accurate.
Most of the attacks detailed in Hamas’ report were defined by the Israeli security establishment as "lone wolf" attacks.
“Hamas is indeed behind the incitement, which is calling for violent action against Israel,” a senior military intelligence officer says, “but there is no basis for the claim that Hamas sends the attackers. The interrogation of the attackers that remained alive, their families and others close to them, including the use of intelligence methods that I will not detail here, shows that 67 percent had a personal motive to commit the attack, 25 percent committed the attacks for reasons I would describe as romantic: lost love, or pressure to wed a partner they did not want. Nine percent reported societal rejection and the desire to be accepted, and for 11 percent the reason was financial, such as heavy debts. It is true that 68 percent of those interrogated also talked about nationalistic motivations. There is incitement, but we did not find a single instance in which they were sent by a terror organization.”
But it's fact that many of the attackers are found to be related to other terrorists or have expressed support of a terror organization.
"It's possible that a person who did not talk about such things in the past does start posting stuff like this, but questioning the family reveals that he did not belong to a terror organization.”
Is it possible that the claim that these are "lone wolf" attacks serves as an explanation - an alibi - to the government and security establishment’s inability to deal with the attacks?
“Quite the opposite. It's in our interest to say that it's Hamas or other organizations. It would make it easier for us to deal with them."
Bypassing the metal detectors
Lior Akerman, former deputy Shin Bet department head and a terrorism and intelligence expert, also doubts Dr. Bartal’s conclusions. “Hamas is a very sophisticated organization, and it still couldn't create this intifada,” Ackerman says. “This claim has no basis in reality, even if the attackers are nourished by the incitement that is on social media. It’s a local, personal initiative. There is nothing organized here. It seems that the reason to turn them into organized attacks is tainted by political interests.”
The police, which handle terror attacks within the Green Line together with the Shin Bet, refused to answer our journalists’ questions.
An official in the defense establishment believes that "as in many other cases, the truth is somewhere in the middle." According to him, "Taking limited responsibility for terrorism is a known Hamas practice; they adopt the terrorists after the fact, without admitting that they control them. On the other hand, the findings require further thought. They pose a challenge to security forces that is not easy to deal with, which is not compatible with a military doctrine that was established over the course of many years. It's very difficult for large organizations to replace paradigms. So I don't think that they reject this premise. I don't attribute extraneous considerations to the IDF, the police or the Shin Bet. I don't believe that they reject this concept, because defining this as a 'lone-wolf intifada' serves an alibi that they cling to, but I think that this argument only deals with the product of incitement, and these attackers have organizational affiliation or direction, which is very problematic. You have to take this insight in light of operational considerations: start by saying that this is not just a lone-wolf intifada, but also an intifada that is directed by the organizations—even if by remote control—and then derive the modus operandi from this."
For example?
"For example, seeing what we can learn from the attack at the Sha'ar Benyamin, which killed Sergeant Tuvia Yanai Wiseman. We know that the three left their house in Beitunia armed with knives that were concealed on their persons, and they were able to penetrate two security circles: the industrial zone’s and the supermarket’s. What is less clear is why they chose to attack Sha'ar Benyamin, which is far from Beitunia, on the other side of Ramallah, when the closest settlement to them is Givat Ze'ev? Did someone lay the groundwork for them? Did someone report to them on the security arrangements that were in place? And how did they get there? And another thing: the knives were probably concealed in plastic so that they wouldn't beep. They were 14 and 15—who taught them to do that? These questions also affect other cases. And this is not the lone example that requires new thinking. By the way, to my knowledge, there are those in the Shin Bet and the IDF who understand that there are many cases like this."
In his report, Bartal specifies his study’s definition of a "lone-wolf attacker", which, if adopted by the defense establishment, may completely change the picture. "By definition, three characteristics must exist: that they are indeed working independently, that they are not affiliated with a terrorist organization or network of any kind, and that they operate in a system they came up with and is not due to direct instruction or from an external source. If one of the conditions does not exist, then the attackers can't be seen as "lone wolves," but rather as organized terrorists. This distinction has ramifications on how to handle the waves of attacks by damaging the organizations, their operatives, and their supporters, as well as closer supervision, electronically or otherwise, via agents or any other intelligence means."
The report summarize's Bartal’s answer to the question: "What should Israel do?"
"Israel is not alone on the front against Islamic terrorism. The US, Britain and other countries have gained lots of experience with the phenomenon, and joining forces by adopting methods of inspection and obtaining information can be a great help. Part of tackling this problem requires supervision of social media, which somewhat damages privacy rights, but in today’s technological age, this is a necessary step. Israel must not ignore the organizational elements inherent in terrorist operations. Terrorists draw on these organizations for guidelines for actions and information, such as where to stab (on the body). Understanding that this is another front for the terrorist organizations will also affect the response methods. Terrorists do not grow out of thin air. Supervising an extensive circle of people is not self-evident, but it's apparently the only way to prevent the next attack."

Yemen and Lebanon: Testing grounds for regional and international intentions
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/March 14/16
The radar of crises and settlements recorded this week an instance of Turkish-Iranian coordination to resolve crises in the Middle East through “gradual steps”, especially in Syria. Prime Minister Ahmed Davutoglu communicated to Tehran his country’s willingness to help broker Saudi-Iranian reconciliation, wishing at the same time upon Iran to help de-escalate Russian-Turkish tensions, especially with regard to Syria. At the same time, Turkey has sought a controversial deal regarding curbing the flow of Syrian refugees crossing its territory in return for expediting EU accession talks and exempting Turkish nationals from entry visas to European countries.
The radar also recorded a breakthrough in Yemen, with a Houthi delegation visiting Saudi Arabia for the first time since the Saudi Arabia-led Arab coalition intervened in Yemen against Houthi rebels and forces loyal to deposed President Ali Abdullah Saleh. However, amid the optimism over this breakthrough concerning negotiations on a ceasefire along the Saudi-Yemeni border, Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri, deputy chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, suggested Iran could support the Houthis in a similar way it has backed President Bashar al-Assad’s forces in Syria, by sending military advisers to Yemen.
Iran’s roles in Syria and Yemen lead to the third issue this week, namely, Lebanon. Lebanon is a hostage to regional powers on the one hand, but on the other, has become a basket case of a corrupt political class amid polemics and policies that seem to abide by no ethical limit – from drowning the country in garbage, the prevention of the election of a president, and the deliberate assassination of downtown Beirut to implicating Lebanon in others’ wars, and childish gambits by most leaders that are further destroying the country.
Let’s start with Yemen. An understanding there would have implications that go beyond the scope of the war there. Practically speaking, Yemen would be a testing ground for the intentions of regional and international players. UN envoy, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, has been working on arranging meetings and direct face-to-face negotiations between the Saudi Arabia-led coalition and the Houthis. He has relied on the Omani channel repeatedly to facilitate and secure agreement on pushing forward negotiations towards a political settlement in Yemen, which the parties seem to be ready for now more than any time before in the past.
Peace overtures
The Iran-backed Houthi group sent a delegation to the southern Saudi Arabian border to negotiate with Saudi leaders on ending the war “once and for all”, according to the Yemeni Information Minister Mohammed Qubati. This was the first visit of its kind and coincided with relative calm along the Saudi-Yemeni border and a reduction in the number of strikes carried out by the coalition in Sanaa.
According to an official in the Houthi delegation, the visit was at the invitation of Saudi officials, following secret week-long preparatory talks. The purpose of the visit was to negotiate a ceasefire along the border but without a ceasefire applying to cities. As for the direct negotiations the UN envoy hopes to restart, they are set to be held in Geneva between March 24 and 26.
A short while ago, signs emerged of increased US and Russian keenness on paving the way for a strategy to end the Yemeni war, based on the priorities of Saudi national security along the border with Yemen. Both powers have helped the Saudi-led coalition with crucial intelligence. But both fear the war could allow al-Qaeda to regroup and regain its influence in Yemen, and also ISIS to capitalize on the chaos to gain a foothold in Yemen.
Neither Washington nor Moscow accept for Saudi Arabia’s national security to be threatened through Yemen. They do not share the view of the hardliners in Tehran and their partners like Hezbollah, whose secretary general recently vowed not to remain silent in Yemen and to “continue” what he is doing there, in reference to his continued involvement in the war alongside the Houthis in Yemen.
Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri’s remarks to the Tasnim news agency regarding the possibility that Iran could send advisers to assist the Houthis is very serious, because it is an implicit acknowledgement of what Iran is doing militarily in the Yemeni war. He said Iran feels it is its duty to assist the Yemeni people in any way possible and at any level needed. This was in response to a question about Tehran’s willingness to send military advisers to assist the Houthis in the war.
The Iranian general’s remarks coincided with the Hezbollah chief’s public escalation last week. So either this is the position of the Islamic Republic that made Hassan Nasrallah volunteer his declaration without hesitation, or this is the position of the hardliners in the Iranian regime, offset by the official silence on the important negotiations taking place under international auspices amid a US-Russian keenness on having them succeed.
New direction?
Regardless of which possibility is closer to reality, it is time for the ruling class in Iran that claims to be moderate and to be pursuing a new direction to adopt positions that rein in the hawkishness of hardliners, especially in Arab arenas. Iran’s testing of ballistic missiles and warnings to the “enemies of the revolution” is to remind everyone of the strength of the hardliners and their intention to escalate on all levels, to reassert their position and influence in the regime in Tehran.
It is possible the decision to escalate against Saudi Arabia out of Lebanon was made by this front. If the moderate front is serious, it must prove this in both the Yemeni and Lebanese arenas, especially since the Syrian and Iraqi arenas are more difficult because of the insistence of the Revolutionary Guards and their allies to make gains on the ground there no matter what.
It may be that Yemen will be a stop for Saudi-Iranian accords that would gradually de-escalate conflicts in the region, the price for which is being paid by the Arab states and peoples. It may be too that moderate forces will be able to rein in the escalation undermining Lebanon’s stability and economy. If the Yemen stop proves difficult, then Lebanon may be more amenable for Saudi-Iranian confidence building measures.
While the international decision, especially the US-Russian decision, may be to help end the war in Yemen, the decision by these countries to prevent a military conflagration in Lebanon may not be enough. Instead, they must immunize it against regional and local escalation, rather than leaving Lebanon prey to it.
Clearly, most leaders in Lebanon have lost regional and international respect over their childish political games. It is time for these leaders to quit their greed and insolence. Their beautiful country, blessed by God with a dazzling natural landscape, has become the subject of ridicule around the world. How is it possible to explain the scandals and fraud in the waste management issue, and the farce of the presidential elections, not to mention the declaration of war by a local militia against a major Arab country after it fought proxy wars on behalf of Iran in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen?
Not long ago, downtown Beirut was a testament to rebirth from ruins. It was a place for children’s laughter and grownups’ hopes, and for youthful passion for opening cafes and restaurants and charting out a prosperous future. But today, it is a fortified military zone allegedly for the protection of parliament from protesters against the garbage crisis. But how can the crime of killing Beirut’s commercial heart be justified using the pretext of protecting parliament, which is illegitimate to begin with?
Indeed, the Lebanese deputies had renewed their own term, yet they refuse to attend sessions to elect a president, citing a so-called constitutional right to boycott the vote. It is therefore a lie to claim that the reason for killing Beirut’s city center has to do with security. It is a willful decision, but a decision by whom and for what purpose? Those behind it know the answer very well.
Any Lebanese deputy who walks on the streets of Beirut without feeling guilty has no conscience. People’s livelihoods have been crushed, the economy has been strangled, and the dreams and ambitions of youths have been deliberately destroyed. Enough corruption. But it is also time for the parents of young protesters to stop criticizing them for having been infiltrated by political parties, which discredited them. It is time for parents to quit their complacency and their concern for their privileges, and rise up instead of bowing down to leaders while complaining about the failure of their children to challenge these types that are making the country rottener.
Neither Washington nor Moscow accept for Saudi Arabia’s national security to be threatened through Yemen. They do not share the view of the hardliners in Tehran and their partners like Hezbollah
The sin in Lebanon is not purely Lebanese; it is also regional. If the dash to rearrange regional and international relations is truly serious, Lebanon must not be forgotten. We are being told that the US-Russian decision is pushing for de-escalation in Syria through a ceasefire. Some are saying it is tactical and provisional, while others are hoping for the decision for a political settlement to be serious. What we are witnessing on the level of Iranian-Turkish relations indicates that the two countries want to benefit from US-Russian partnership in Syria to reconsider their relations both in strategic terms and in terms of the situation in Syria.
The visit by the Turkish prime minister to Tehran last week sought to enhance security, political, and economic cooperation between the two countries, and to promote bilateral understandings in light of talk of federalism in Syria and the two countries’ concerns regarding a possible Russian and US reward to the Kurds in Syria and Iraq, which would no doubt affect Kurds in Turkey and Iran.
Ankara finds itself in a confrontational relationship with Moscow due to their deeply conflicting policies in Syria but also for other bilateral issues. Tehran welcomes what it sees as a change in Turkey’s approach to the Syrian crisis, in light of the clarity of a US-Russian partnership on the Syrian issue.
Al-Hayat’s correspondent in Tehran, Mohammad Saleh Sedkian, quoted an informed Iranian source as saying that Davutoglu’s visit will help steer the climate in the region towards more stability and security, noting that Tehran wants balanced relations with all neighbors. The source said Davutoglu asked Tehran to mediate to help mend relations with Moscow, in return for Ankara doing the same for Iranian-Saudi relations.
Apparently, Iran is fine with both. This is interesting, especially if we take into account the remarks by Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir during the Gulf Cooperation Council meeting, stating that Riyadh was ready for rapprochement with Tehran as a neighbor, if it changes its aggressive behavior.
Informed sources attributed this to the coming turn in Saudi-Iranian relations, based on separating pressure on Iran from pressure on Hezbollah, and separating developments and escalations with Hezbollah from normalizing relations with Tehran based on the latter changing its behavior in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, or Lebanon. In other words, the Gulf decision is to ignore Hassan Nasrallah’s invitation to a duel, and to bypass it by reining it in another place unrelated to the countries concerned, Lebanon or Iran.
The radar of settlements has recorded noteworthy movements on crucial regional issues and relations. As for the radar of crises, it has recorded a blow after blow to Lebanon, which have ostensibly regional causes but have come from the Lebanese soil fundamentally.

Syria – the seven pillars of failure
Chris Doyle/Al Arabiya/March 14/16
Everyone has failed Syria. The failure is not partial but total. This must be the first and most devastating assessment after five years of this country-ravaging conflict. The Syrian regime, much of the Syrian opposition failed to put national interests first but engaged in a winner takes all, loser dies conflict.
Is there one power that did not stir up the conflict? The UN Security Council has failed in its “primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security.” Obama did a Pontius Pilate style washing of his hands; Putin continues to feast at the carcass of this country to feed the Russian expansionist bear. Europe’s failure was as acute. The French engaged in fraudulent gesture politics designed as one senior US official told me to line “Parisian coffers with Saudi petrodollars not help Syrians.” Britain largely just followed the diplomatic crowd. Germany only woke up once the refugees landed on its doorstep last September. The financial cost of failure for donor governments is a paltry $15 billion.
The seven pillars
Here are seven pillars of this Syria follow, seven lessons to be learnt.
The first lesson is to address crises ideally before they happen but in their infancy not at the catastrophic phase. The evidence that major powers have yet to learn is evidenced by the labored reaction to the Yemen catastrophe where already 21 million are in need of assistance, and the complacent stance on Libya where ISIS has deftly exploited the vacuum and disorder to control a major city like Sirte. Obama’s criticism about the British prime minister being “distracted by a range of other things” regarding Libya may have some validity but Downing Street could return the attack with interest citing Obama taking his eye off matters in Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen.
The second lesson is you cannot quarantine a conflict of this scale - “over there” soon can hit “here.” Conflicts metastasize across borders facilitated by cheap travel, diaspora communities and extremists desperate to cash in. European leaders labour under the costly myth that refugees desperate enough to risk the deadly waters of the Mediterranean, will be thwarted by barbed wire and tear gas.
The third lesson is to be wary of grand declarations from the side-lines. Since August 2011, leaders of the US, Britain and France called for President Assad to stand aside. This became the collective orthodoxy trundled out numbingly at every summit. Given the Syrian president’s record of brutality this is understandable, but without any political will to change the situation on the ground, it was reckless grandstanding. Five years on, Bashar Al-Assad is still the president. Obama’s red line on chemical weapons was not even pink.
Lesson four is that a dictator alone does not constitute a regime. Assad is the Capo di Cappi, the boss of the bosses of the Syrian regime mafia but many of his lieutenants are even more hard-line. It is not impossible that Putin will broker an Assad out-regime stays plan ensuring leaving Russia’s Damascus myrmidons still in place. This is the startling weakness of the “Assad must go” cure for the conflict. Any solution for Syria must address, root and branch, the nature of power in Syria but without dismantling the ability of the state to function.
The Syrian regime, much of the Syrian opposition failed to put national interests first but engaged in a winner takes all, loser dies conflict
The fifth lesson is that marginalizing the Syrian people was and remains disastrous. The exclusionary politics of the regime frustrated huge swathes of Syrian society for decades. Yet outside powers contributed to this by quickly abandoning the centrifugal force of the peaceful Syrian protests of 2011, for externally armed proxy forces who worked solely for a military victory for their patron’s interests. Peace talks must similarly be inclusive and Syrian driven (remember the Vienna meeting in November where not one Syrian was present). The protests across Syria during the cessation of hostilities show just how Syrian popular aspirations have not been eradicated by the war.
The sixth lesson is that conflict is the perfect incubator for ISIS, al-Qaeda and other extreme currents. They did not create the conflict but like parasites, feed off it and foment it. The knee jerk reaction should not just be to bomb them but to kill the host – the conflict itself.
The final lesson is that those outside the region understand far less than they imagine they do. The general assessment of Syria was merely that Assad was the final toppling domino after Ben Ali, Mubarak and Gaddafi. Many in the left propagated the looney line that this was all a western conspiracy to destroy Syria. Foreign powers played catch up with events on the ground unaware how real change was occurring. Confident Western assertions of who were representative Syrian opposition figures belied the scratchy familiarity with Syrian civil society, Islamist politics and other protagonists. That the US state department could not even muster decent Arabic speakers for their ceasefire violations hotline tells it all. But at least “most of my colleagues can now find Syria on the map,” said the same US official to me. Progress?

 

Mashhad Appointments Show Tightened Hardliner Grip
Mehdi Khalaji/ The Washington Institute/March 14, 2016
Sayyed Ebrahim Raisi, who is taking over a massive organization, has a repressive record dating back to the 1980s.
On March 8, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed the first new leader in thirty-seven years for the Astan-e Qods Razavi organization, the country's wealthiest and arguably most important entity, which runs the Mashhad shrine as well as a vast business empire. The appointment followed the March 4 death of longtime administrator Abbas Vaez Tabasi. The group is now Islam's largest religious endowment and serves as a significant financial tool for the region's radical Islamists.
a city's major player
Mashhad is the second largest Iranian city in both population and land area. It is also the country's holiest city, where Ali ibn Musa, or the infallible eighth imam (aka Imam Reza), is buried. Located in the heart of Khorasan-e Razavi province, which significantly helped shape the country's Iranian as well as Islamic identity, Mashhad welcomes more than 22 million pilgrims a year, according to the latest issue of the monthly periodical Mehr Nameh. Beside its special place in Iranian socioreligious life, Mashhad has gained political cachet under Ayatollah Khamenei, who was born in the city in 1939 and lived and studied there until the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Since taking office in 1989, the Supreme Leader has established the custom of traveling to the city for the springtime Nowruz festival (Iranian New Year), where he delivers a speech at the Shrine of Imam Reza covering the past year's key domestic and foreign policy issues and usually employing a tougher-than-usual inflammatory tone.
In general, Khamenei does not intervene in the local governing of Iran's provinces, but Khorasan represents an exception. Here, the Iranian interior minister only appoints a provincial governor after consulting closely with the Supreme Leader, who demands similar oversight for other provincial issues. To give a sense of Astan-e Qods Razavi's clout, more than 43 percent of the city's land falls within its control. Furthermore, Iranian officials estimate that a full third of the country's agricultural territory belongs to religious endowments, much of it to Astan-e Qods, whose land is valued by experts at more than $20 billion. In 2004, the Economic Organization of Astan al-Qods Razavi was registered to manage Astan's economic and financial activities. The organization has more than twelve thousand employees, spread out among eighty-nine companies and foundations, and competes with other groups nominally outside government control such as Khatam al-Anbia and Bonyad Taavon Naja (Police Cooperation Foundation), the first associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and both under direct command of the Supreme Leader, exempt from taxes and elected bodies' oversight. Regardless of experts' estimates, neither the public nor the government knows the real value of Astan's assets or annual revenue. The complex is accountable only to the Supreme Leader through its representative.
clerical tensions
In 1979, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini appointed Abbas Vaez Tabasi, a leading figure among Mashhad's revolutionary seminarians, custodian of Astan-e Qods. In this role, he gained unparalleled influence and authority not only in Khorasan but also in Iran's political and economic spheres. Like former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Tabasi's financial interests predated the revolution. Unlike his Mashhad peer Khamenei, who came from a poor family and lived modestly until 1979, Tabasi was raised in a prosperous clerical family.
When Khamenei came to power in 1989, he sought to replace the revolutionary generation of administrators with his own acolytes, who owed their political education not to the republic's founders but to Khamenei-associated institutions such as the IRGC and the intelligence sector. Tabasi, however, remained from the earlier generation. He held an independent political identity and strong organic popularity to go with his control of the massive Astan complex. A traditional conservative, Tabasi disliked the regime's emerging hardline wing, which benefited from Khamenei's unbending support. In April 2005, shortly before Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's first election as president, Khamenei appointed one of the future president's backers, Sayyed Ahmad Alam al-Hoda, as Mashhad's Friday prayer imam. Alam al-Hoda was also close to Jebheh-ye Paydari (Front of Stability of the Islamic Revolution), an extreme political faction. Between Tabasi and Alam al-Hoda, tensions eventually became so serious that the two did not hide their reluctance to meet. Separately, the judiciary, suggesting the position of the higher leadership, charged Tabasi's son, Nasser Vaez Tabasi, with corruption in dealings related to the al-Makaseb company. Confirming speculation about the ayatollah's leanings, the elder Tabasi met with a cold reaction when he complained privately to Khamenei about the judiciary's treatment of his son and tarnishing of his family's image. Despite a possible sense that the Supreme Leader was laying the grounds for his replacement, Tabasi subsequently maintained cordial formal ties to the Supreme Leader -- and a warm relationship with Rafsanjani.
Khamenei Asserts Control
In naming the fifty-five-year-old Sayyed Ebrahim Raisi to lead Astan-e Qods Razavi, Khamenei made a clear statement. Raisi, who has served in the judiciary, including as its first deputy, is notorious for his involvement in the mass killing of political prisoners in 1988. Having filled positions including Special Court for Clerics prosecutor, he is well known for his utter loyalty to Khamenei and affinity for his worldview. Earlier this year, Raisi was reelected to the Assembly of Experts, on whose management board he has served. Furthermore, he is the custodian of Tehran's Imamzadeh Saleh shrine and endowments and, even more important, a Khamenei appointee on the trustees board of the Headquarters for Executing the Order of the Imam -- a significant nominally nongovernment entity with some $95 billion in assets. Since Tabasi also represented Khamenei in the province, the Supreme Leader was able to name the sympathetic Alam al-Hoda to replace him. The Mashhad-born Alam al-Hoda, who is Raisi's father-in-law, was Khamenei's prerevolution comrade, and the two share views on Western cultural invasion and animosity toward liberal and democratic values. Alam al-Hoda and Raisi's influence will now extend beyond Khorasan-e Razavi province, affecting various fields of the economy, culture, and politics.
On March 8, the same day he appointed Alam al-Hoda, Khamenei also named the new members, secretary, and director of the Supreme Council for the Khorasan Seminary. This is significant because, after Qom, Mashhad has Iran's largest clerical base -- and one generally even more staunchly antirationalist in interpreting Islam and more fanatical in the cultural arena than Qom's. The new seminary appointees will undoubtedly uphold this approach, given their subordination to the regime's unelected authoritarian core.
Post-Khamenei Prospects
Khamenei's appointments came shortly after the late February elections for parliament and the Assembly of Experts, whose high turnout and results showed Iranians' preference for a more effective economic system and normalization of Iran's international relations. The vote also reveals the Iranian cultural and economic middle class's belief that the ballot box offers its sole hope of rescuing Iran's frail middle class and enacting slow, incremental national progress. Against such aspirations, the regime's radical anti-Western core is methodically strengthening its position. Given this continuing consolidation of power and the protection of its adherents' vast political and economic interests, Iran's revolutionary brand of Islam will persist after Khamenei's death, shaping the agenda of his successor, whoever he may be.
**Mehdi Khalaji is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute.

U.S. Military Aid to Israel: Debating an Increase
David Makovsky/Washington Institute/March 15/16
When Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu cancelled his planned visit to Washington recently, many speculated that he was protesting the continued lack of agreement on the amount of U.S. military aid to be embodied in a new ten-year memorandum of understanding (MOU). Vice President Joe Biden, who enjoys a close friendship with Netanyahu, visited Israel last week and urged the prime minister to finalize a deal at the level favored by the Obama administration. Although Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon will meet with Defense Secretary Ash Carter at the Pentagon this week, the MOU talks have been spearheaded by the White House and the Prime Minister's Office, so the Carter-Yaalon talks are unlikely to be a game-changer.
HISTORY OF MILITARY AID TO ISRAEL
U.S. aid rose dramatically in the wake of Israel's 1979 peace treaty with Egypt, yet the first MOU on military aid was not signed until two decades later in 1998, for $21.3 billion over ten years. The second MOU was signed in August 2007, for $30 billion over ten years. The mutual advantage of signing such MOUs is that they inject predictability into the process so that aid levels do not have to be negotiated each year. Moreover, Israel is the only country permitted to use cash flow financing for U.S. arms purchases (besides Egypt, which will lose that privilege in fiscal year 2018). This allows it to finance multiyear purchases through installments rather than having to pay the full amount up front; accordingly, it can negotiate major arms deals with U.S. defense suppliers and finance them with future aid payments. In addition, U.S. assistance earmarked for Israel is generally delivered in the first thirty days of the fiscal year, as opposed to most other recipients.
The MOUs have been accompanied by supplementary funding as well. Since 2009, congressional funding for Israel has exceeded Pentagon budget requests by some $1.9 billion. For example, the omnibus spending bill passed last December appropriated $487 million for bilateral missile defense programs, a significant increase from the $145.8 million requested by the Pentagon. And in summer 2014, Congress responded to Israeli requests during Operation Protective Edge by passing $225 million in emergency funding for the Iron Dome system. Currently, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's 2017 fiscal budget forecasts spending $540 million annually on Israeli cooperative programs over each of the next five years. The MOUs have also allowed Israel to use around a quarter of the U.S. aid it receives to stimulate its own defense industry.
The first MOU set the goal of phasing out economic aid, which eventually happened -- Israel no longer receives such funding from the United States. In addition to the military aid, Israel gets a few million in U.S. funding under various programs, such as cooperative energy research.
THE CASE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
Israel is reportedly requesting $5 billion per annum over the next ten years, while the U.S. position is between $3.4 and $4 billion. In Israel's view, the lower end of that range would actually represent a decrease in aid, since the 2007 MOU would have amounted to $3.6 billion per year if one factors in inflation.
Although officials in both countries are tight lipped about the process given the sensitivity of the negotiations, published reports indicate that the case for increasing assistance is based on several factors. For one, proponents believe that Israel needs to prepare itself militarily for dealing with the limitations of the Iranian nuclear deal -- namely, the expiration of restrictions on centrifuges and enrichment in ten to fifteen years and the possibility of cheating beforehand. Other factors include the likely increase in Iranian funding for dangerous regional proxies as nuclear sanctions are lifted; the increase in U.S. arms sales to Sunni Arab states in order to offset Iranian activity and win tacit acceptance for the nuclear deal; the growing presence of nonstate actors on Israel's borders; and the region's widening volatility in general.
During the debate over the nuclear deal, President Obama pledged to conclude the MOU negotiations swiftly and factor in these Israeli concerns. At the time, he acknowledged that lifting sanctions would give Iran access to at least $50 billion in frozen assets. To be sure, the sharp drop in oil prices from $100 to $37 per barrel means that Iran has less revenue today than two years ago under sanctions, but even so, the expectation is that it will soon have more funds to bolster Hezbollah. Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot recently stated that Tehran already gives the group an average of $1 billion a year.
As for increased U.S. military sales to the Gulf states, although Israel has (quietly) developed closer ties with these countries in recent years, both Jerusalem and Washington believe that Israel's qualitative military edge should be preserved given the region's chronic instability and weapons proliferation. Some Israelis point to Iraq as an example, noting that Islamic State militants are now armed with American weapons previously provided to the Iraqi army.
More broadly, Israel sees hostile nonstate actors on all of its borders, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria, Hamas in Gaza, and an Islamic State "province" in the Sinai. These current and potential threats, coupled with the uncertain situation in the West Bank, have made Israel feel increasingly vulnerable. As such, Jerusalem believes a robust MOU would signal both the Israeli public and regional actors that the policy differences between Obama and Netanyahu will not overshadow America's longstanding committed to Israel's security.
COUNTERARGUMENTS
Those who believe that the aid increase in the next MOU should be more modest tend to rely on three main arguments. First, while one can debate the long-term merits of the Iran deal, it has reduced the nuclear threat for at least the next few years. The country's enriched uranium has been shipped out, and a large number of centrifuges have either been mothballed or dismantled. Yet there is no evidence of moderation in Tehran's behavior since the deal was signed, so Israel may not feel comfortable assuming that the United States and other countries will push back sufficiently against potential nuclear violations or other Iranian provocations.
Second, while it is true that the Middle East is awash in arms and that Iran will be able to give more aid to Hezbollah and other proxies, Israel does not face the same threat of conventional war from Arab states that it faced in the past. It holds longstanding peace treaties with some of these states, while others are either consumed with internal conflicts or otherwise unlikely to seek war with Israel anytime in the foreseeable future.
Third, current aid to Israel already represents a sizable portion of all U.S. foreign military assistance. Israel receives $3.1 billion out of a global pie of $5.87 billion, while Egypt receives $1.3 billion and Jordan $300 million (Amman also receives $85 million in other forms of military aid as well as hundreds of millions in economic aid).
POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS
The MOU issue poses political risks for both governments. For the Obama administration, failure to conclude the memorandum could make the issue a political football during an election year, thus politicizing the matter at a very sensitive time in the negotiations. Israel may believe that the next administration will be more sympathetic to its aid request, but there is no guarantee. Given the uncertainty of the primary season and the American electorate's growing anger (albeit on issues unrelated to Israel), Jerusalem cannot be certain that public attitudes toward foreign aid will remain the same over the next year.
The White House should also consider the issue's potential impact on any final initiatives it may hope to pursue in the realm of Israeli-Palestinian peace. If the Obama administration is in fact planning such a move before it leaves office, completing the military aid MOU first could be a political and strategic necessity.
CONCLUSION
Both countries should approach the MOU as a function of Israel's needs in a new regional landscape. This means that the talks should not be influenced by score-settling over the Iran deal -- specifically, U.S. negotiators should not be governed by fears that Netanyahu will depict a large aid increase as validating his confrontational approach on the nuclear deal. At this juncture, Washington should also steer clear of any approach that triggers a deeper reassessment of overall foreign military aid, since Egypt, Jordan, and Israel -- who receive 81.5% of the entire Foreign Military Financing budget -- might then feel compelled to fight each other for their share of the pie.
**David Makovsky is the Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute.