English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 13/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the
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Bible Quotations For today
You have heard
that it was said, “You shall love your neighbour and hate your enemy.”But I say
to you, Love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint
Matthew 05/43-48:”‘You have heard that it was said, “You shall love your
neighbour and hate your enemy.”But I say to you, Love your enemies and pray for
those who persecute you, so that you may be children of your Father in heaven;
for he makes his sun rise on the evil and on the good, and sends rain on the
righteous and on the unrighteous. For if you love those who love you, what
reward do you have? Do not even the tax-collectors do the same? And if you greet
only your brothers and sisters, what more are you doing than others? Do not even
the Gentiles do the same? Be perfect, therefore, as your heavenly Father is
perfect.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on
September 12-13/2021
Press Reslease From Amer Fakhoury Foundation/
Health Ministry: 785 new Corona cases, 11 deaths
EU Urges Lebanon to Address Crises, Reach Deal with IMF
Statement by the Spokesperson on the government formation
Miqati Talks Electricity with Kuwait, Says Cabinet Won't be Conflict Arena
The Main Challenges Facing Lebanon's New Government
Lebanese Doubtful New Cabinet Up to the Task of Reform
Star Minister Kordahi Causes Uproar upon Landing in Lebanon
Egypt to export gas to Lebanon via Jordan
FPM Says Granting Confidence Hinges on Govt. Program
Finance Committee session postponed due to the passing death of Kanaan's father
Arab Unification Party issues clarification statement over Wahhab’s words in
Russian, Ukrainian issue
Sami Gemayel meets in Egypt with Petroleum & Mineral Resources Minister
Lebanese take refuge in sarcasm over ‘handsome’ new ministers/Najia Houssari/Arab
News/September 12/2021
Lebanese are the losers from this new government/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab
News/September 12/2021
Message to Lebanon’s new Cabinet: Prove us all wrong/Baria Alamuddin/Arab
News/September 12/2021
The Next Lebanon War/It will start without warning. And the consequences are
likely to be enormous./Matti Friedman/The Tablet/September 12/2021
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
September 12-13/2021
Pope Warns Of 'Threat Of Antisemitism' In Europe
Iran to Allow New Memory Cards in U.N.'s Nuclear Site Cameras
IAEA Chief in Iran for Talks on Nuclear Dispute
Afghan Police Return to Work alongside Taliban at Airport
Iraq PM Visits Iran for Economic Talks
Tunisia's President Says Constitution Must be Amended
Iraq's Arbil Airport Attacked by Armed Drones
Al-Qaida Chief Appears in New Video Marking 9/11 Anniversary
Paris welcomes Athens' intention to purchase six additional Rafale fighters
El-Sisi: Muslim Brotherhood has been eating away at Egypt for 90 years
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC
English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
September 12-13/2021
The Other Special Relationship: Britain and the UAE/Richard Kemp/
Gatestone Institute/September 12/2021
In Tehran Much Talk of Talks/Amir Taheri/Asharq al-Awsat/September 12/2021
Joe Biden’s ‘get out of jail free’ card/Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/September
12/2021
Deeds, not words: Egypt’s subtle message to Turkey/Yasar Yakis/Arab
News/September 12/2021
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on September 12-13/2021
فيديو من مؤسسة الشهيد عامر فاخوري
الذكرى الأولي لتأسيس مؤسسة الشهيد عامر فاخوري والذكرى الثانية لحجز واختطاف
الشهيد في لبنان المحتل والذي نتج عن اغتياله المتعمد. افراج عنه فقط قبل اسابيع من
وفاته. اعتقل وسمم اعتباطياً وظلماً في دولة يحتلها حزب الله ويهيمن على حكامها
وقراراها.
https://www.facebook.com/FakhouryFoundation/videos/396023855252588
Press Reslease From
Amer Fakhoury Foundation/
Amer Fakhoury Foundation/September 12/2021
Today marks the 1 year anniversary of the Amer Fakhoury Foundation. Two years
ago on this day, Amer Fakhoury was taken at the Lebanese General Security,
tortured and illegally held for 7 months. His torture led to his death. This
Foundation was built to honor Amer Fakhoury and advocate for others like him who
are being unjustly held overseas. The video below provides a recap on everything
the Foundation has accomplished this past year. We thank all the hostage
families we have been working with for their kind words in this video. We
especially thank Senator Jeanne Shaheen for her support and for fighting with us
to get justice for our father.
Health Ministry: 785 new Corona cases, 11 deaths
NNA/September 12/2021
In its daily report on COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health
announced the registration of 785 new Coronavirus infections, which raised the
cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 61,498.
The report added that 11 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.
EU Urges Lebanon to Address Crises, Reach Deal with IMF
Naharnet/September 12/2021
The EU on Sunday called on Lebanon to urgently implement the measures and
reforms needed to address the multiple crises affecting the country, including
“an agreement with the International Monetary Fund.”“The European Union welcomes
the announcement that President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Najib Miqati
signed a decree forming a government in Lebanon on Friday,” it said in a
statement by its spokesman. “The political, economic and social crises in the
country have deteriorated markedly in the last months and weeks, the existing
severe difficulties for the Lebanese people having been further aggravated by
crippling power and fuel shortages,” the EU added. It said that it is a “matter
of urgency” to “implement the measures and reforms needed to address the
multiple crises affecting Lebanon, including an agreement with the International
Monetary Fund.”It added: “This is what the new government must now focus on,
with the active support of the parliament and other state institutions. All
parties involved should show the same resolve and ability to compromise, to
adopt without delay the measures needed to ensure that the immediate needs and
further legitimate expectations of the Lebanese people are met.”
Additionally, the EU said preparations for the municipal, parliamentary and
presidential elections next year “must start in earnest and ensure that they are
free, fair, and transparent,” while welcoming Miqati’s statement that elections
should take place on schedule.The European Union also said that it “stands
together with the Lebanese people in their efforts to overcome the challenges
their country is currently facing.”
Statement by the Spokesperson on the government
formation
NNA/September 12/2021
The European Union welcomes the announcement that President Michel Aoun and
Prime Minister Najib Mikati signed a decree forming a government in Lebanon on
Friday. The political, economic and social crises in the country have
deteriorated markedly in the last months and weeks, the existing severe
difficulties for the Lebanese people having been further aggravated by crippling
power and fuel shortages. It is a matter of urgency to implement the measures
and reforms needed to address the multiple crises affecting Lebanon, including
an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. This is what the new
government must now focus on, with the active support of the parliament and
other state institutions. All parties involved should show the same resolve and
ability to compromise, to adopt without delay the measures needed to ensure that
the immediate needs and further legitimate expectations of the Lebanese people
are met. Additionally, preparations for the municipal, parliamentary and
Presidential elections next year must start in earnest and ensure that they are
free, fair, and transparent. We welcome Prime Minister Mikati’s statement that
elections should take place on schedule. The European Union stands together with
the Lebanese people in their efforts to overcome the challenges their country is
currently facing.--- EEAS
Miqati Talks Electricity with Kuwait, Says Cabinet Won't be Conflict Arena
Naharnet/September 12/2021
Prime Minister Najib Miqati has said that since his designation as premier he
has been communicating with Arab funds in order to reactivate support projects
for Lebanon, noting that he talked to Kuwait to “revive a soft, long-term loan
for accomplishing the electricity plan and building plants.” Kuwait “has always
been at the forefront of supporting Lebanon” and “has provided it with urgent
and necessary aid during the major crises,” Miqati said in an interview with the
Kuwaiti al-Jarida newspaper. As for his government, the premier said it will not
“deal with politics.”“It is not the time for it now. We should rather work to
accomplish things regardless of the talk of the one- and two-third shares and
all these analyses,” Miqati added. He stressed that he will not allow Cabinet to
“turn into an arena for conflicts or disputes.” “The President and I agree that
it is necessary to work in full harmony to rescue the country. The government’s
success is in his interest and it is also in my interest and the interest of
Lebanon and the Lebanese,” Miqati added.
The Main Challenges Facing Lebanon's New Government
Agence France Presse/September 12/2021
Lebanon's new government, finally formed in the throes of an accelerating
economic meltdown after 13 months of political deadlock, has its work cut out.
What are the most pressing issues for the cabinet announced on Friday, and how
easy will they be to tackle?
What are the priorities?
Prime Minister Najib Miqati's 24-member cabinet desperately needs to lift
Lebanon out of what the World Bank has called one of the planet's worst economic
crises since the 1850s. The Lebanese pound has lost more than 90 percent of its
value to the dollar on the black market, inflation has soared and people's
savings are trapped in banks. With foreign currency reserves plummeting, the
cash-strapped state has been struggling to maintain subsidies on basic goods.
Petrol and medicine have become scarce, the state barely provides two hours of
electricity supply a day, and almost 80 percent of the population now lives in
poverty. "The first priority for the government really will be to stem the
collapse," said Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Subsidies needed to be lifted and a safety net put in place to ease the blow on
the most vulnerable, she said. To do this, analysts have said, the cabinet will
need to relaunch talks with the International Monetary Fund to unlock billions
of dollars in financial aid.After defaulting on its debt in March 2020 for the
first time in history, Lebanon started talks with the IMF, but these quickly hit
a wall amid bickering over who should bear the brunt of the losses.
Will this be easy? -
The international community has demanded sweeping reforms and a forensic audit
of the country's central bank before any financial assistance is disbursed. The
previous government in 2020 announced a rescue roadmap that included electricity
sector reform, restructuring the banking sector and lifting the official dollar
peg. But it has yet to be implemented. As for the central bank audit, it too has
stalled, with the central bank claiming it could not provide the auditing firm
with some of the required documents because of banking secrecy.Economist Mike
Azar said that reforming the oversized commercial banking sector and central
bank, as well as restructuring the public sector, would be key for any deal with
the IMF. "There isn't anything you can do short of these two major
restructurings," he told AFP. But the traditional ruling class that has
dominated politics in Lebanon since the 1975-1990 war was likely to be
reluctant. "Restructuring the public sector has an impact on the political
parties, as it is the main financing source for their" patronage system, he
said. "How would they accept that?"Although some of the 24 new ministers in
Miqati's cabinet are technocrats, all have been endorsed by at least one of
Lebanon's many competing political parties. Yahya said drawing up a medium- to
long-term rescue plan for the country would be a "major challenge" as the new
government lacked any political consensus. "This government was formed with the
business-as-usual mentality so everybody there represents one political
leadership or the other," she said. This means political parties "can use the
ministers within the government to block any reform they see as undermining
their interests or unpopular in the street."
Will there be elections?
Miqati on Friday vowed to hold May 2022 parliamentary elections on time. In a
country rocked in 2019 by protests calling for the overhaul of the entire
political class, some activists see this as a chance to vote out an old guard
deemed incompetent and corrupt, and bring in younger experts to actually
represent the people's best interests. But analyst Michel Doueihy said the
political parties in power since the end of the civil war were ready to do
anything to cling on to power. The traditional ruling "class is trying through
this government to catch its breath" and restore some credibility ahead of the
next parliamentary elections, he told AFP. He said their tactics could even
include postponing the polls.
Lebanese Doubtful New Cabinet Up to the Task of Reform
Agence France Presse/September 12/2021
Lebanese commentators have voiced skepticism over the bankrupt state's ability
to win back the support of foreign donors after political factions finally
agreed a new government following 13 months of horse-trading. Billionaire Najib
Miqati, who has served as prime minister twice before, on Friday unveiled his
team of newcomers, some technocrats but all endorsed by at least one of the
political parties dominant since the 1975-1990 civil war. The 24-member cabinet,
which includes only one woman, faces the daunting mission of carrying out
reforms demanded by the international community to unlock desperately needed
financial aid.But many Lebanese questioned whether the new team was up to the
task, or would be able to bring forward the demands of a 2019 protest movement
for an end to alleged mismanagement and corruption. "There is no confidence in
Najib Miqati's government, which represents the interests of a system that
engineered the country's collapse," wrote the al-Akbar newspaper, which is close
to Hizbullah. The new government comes as Lebanon is mired in what the World
Bank has described as one of the world's worst economic crises since the 1850s.
The overwhelming majority of Lebanese struggle to survive amid soaring
inflation, fuel and medicine shortages, and almost round-the-clock power cuts. A
huge swathe of the population has sunken into poverty, while thousands of the
better off have left the country for new lives abroad.
'No political consensus'
Decision-making in Lebanon has long been complicated by a complex power-sharing
system that seeks to maintain balance between the country's various religious
communities. Miqati was the third person asked to try to form a new government
after the previous one resigned following a massive explosion of ammonium
nitrate fertilizer at Beirut port last summer that killed at least 214 people.
It emerged afterwards that officials had known the highly explosive material had
been lingering unsafely on the dockside for years, but had done nothing about
it. Activists on social media have slammed the new cabinet as representing the
same people they hold responsible for the blast. One user described it as yet
another product of "the nitrate regime, political sterility and corruption." The
United States and the European Union have both urged the new government to
undertake reforms quickly. But Lebanese political analyst Sami Nader said he
feared a continuation of the same "quota politics and bickering over every
reform" that had dogged the previous cabinet. Maha Yahya, the director of the
Carnegie Middle East Center, said the new cabinet included some "really
competent ministers.""But overall as a government it's not equipped to deal with
the broader long-term challenges because there is no political consensus on how
to get the country out of the mess it's in," she said.
'Mind-boggling'
In an emotional speech on Friday, Miqati vowed to leave no stone unturned in his
quest to save the small country. But many see the business tycoon, who is
reputed to be Lebanon's wealthiest man, as a product of a corrupt oligarchy. He
was accused by a state prosecutor in 2019 of illicit enrichment, a charge he
denies. Among the new cabinet members is incoming health minister Firass Abiad,
the head of Lebanon's largest public hospital, who rose to prominence for his
role in tackling the Covid-19 pandemic. Academic Nasser Yassine is to lead the
environment ministry. Youssef Khalil, a veteran of the central bank, is to
become the new finance minister and relaunch stalled talks with the
International Monetary Fund to rescue the economy. But some critics have said he
is unlikely to take a tough stance against his former employer, whom many accuse
of being behind the current financial meltdown. As for the lack of women in the
line-up, Yahya said it was "mind-boggling" but not surprising. "It's a symptom
of the way the political calculus continues to happen, the way these people
think about politics, about governance," she said.
Star Minister Kordahi Causes Uproar upon Landing in Lebanon
Naharnet/September 12/2021
Lebanon's TV star-turned-information minister Georges Kordahi returned Sunday to
Beirut from the UAE in order to assume his missions as a member of the new
government. Perhaps the best-known face in the new government, Kordahi's years
as the host of the Arabic version of the popular game show 'Who Wants to Be a
Millionaire' made him a household name in the entire region. Kordahi however
caused an uproar after addressing "some geniuses and analysts" who "appeared on
TV channels over the past two days and analyzed the government’s formation and
its quotas." "Let them calm down a bit," Kordahi told reporters at Beirut's
airport, calling on media outlets "not to host them, because the government has
just been formed." Kordahi's remarks did not sit well with the Journalists For
Freedom group, which voiced regret and concern over his statements. "He began
his ministerial work by asking media outlets not to host journalists and media
figures who do not share his opinions," the group said. "No Mr. journalist
minister, neither you nor any other official can decide for media outlets whom
to host, and if you have started your mission in this manner, you should know
that you are an information minister in a country in which freedoms are stronger
than mindless dictations," the group added. "You are also in a country that is
different than the models that you resemble and pride yourself in," the group
went on to say, suggesting that Kordahi is a supporter of authoritarian regimes.
Also speaking to reporters at the airport, Kordahi described Lebanon as "a plane
that is making an emergency landing." "We must all cooperate in order to give a
glimpse of hope to the people," the minister added, promising citizens that the
new government "will try to do everything that is positive." "Those who want to
take us to hell must calm down because we don't want that. Whoever wants that
can go alone," Kordahi said. The National News Agency meanwhile reported that
the minister was mobbed by a group of people at the airport who congratulated
him on his new missions and asked him to carry out positive steps.
Egypt to export gas to Lebanon via Jordan
Arab News/September 12/2021
CAIRO: Egypt’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Tarek El-Molla said
he expects the supply of Egyptian gas to Lebanon to begin within weeks. In
televised statements on Sunday, the minister said Egypt has a surplus of natural
gas. He said a meeting was held between the Arab Gas Pipeline countries (Egypt,
Syria, Jordan and Lebanon) to arrange the logistics of pumping gas back to
Lebanon via lines in Jordan. He said tests will be conducted in the coming weeks
for the gas pipeline to Jordan to assess its suitability. Each country will bear
the maintenance costs of the lines in its respective territory. He said Lebanon
was facing energy crisis and Egypt wanted to help the country counter the issue.
FPM Says Granting Confidence Hinges on Govt. Program
Naharnet/September 12/2021
The Free Patriotic Movement has said that its parliamentary bloc will grant its
votes of confidence to Najib Miqati's government based on its program, pouring
cold water on the premier’s announcement that the FPM had agreed to give prior
confidence. Speaking to the PSP’s al-Anbaa news portal, MP Farid al-Bustani of
the FPM-led Strong Lebanon bloc said “the issue of the bloc’s voting on
confidence is mainly linked to the content of the government’s policy
statement.” “Should it be reformist, as we’re expecting, and if it clearly
mentions the forensic audit process, we will certainly grant confidence to the
government,” Bustani added. “If the statement does not mention this issue then
there will be a disaster. The issue of confidence is linked to the policy
statement and the bloc will hold a meeting and will declare its stance in an
official manner, seeing as no one can pressure us,” the lawmaker went on to say.
The FPM’s political committee had also announced Saturday after a meeting that
the bloc’s MPs would await the policy statement to decide whether or not to
grant confidence. MP Nicolas Nahhas of Miqati’s Independent Center bloc
meanwhile told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper that President Michel Aoun’s
“confirmation” that the FPM would grant confidence had been one of the
foundations on which the government was formed, noting that “the ministers who
are loyal to President Aoun had been picked by (FPM chief Jebran) Bassil.” FPM
sources close to Aoun meanwhile told the daily that the President and the FPM
had linked the vote of confidence to the government’s program, noting that
Miqati appears to have “forgotten” these remarks. Miqati had announced upon the
government’s formation that, according to Aoun, the FPM would “certainly” grant
confidence to the government. The President, however, later said that confidence
would be granted to “the government’s program.”
Finance Committee session postponed due to the passing
death of Kanaan's father
NNA/September 12/2021
The meeting of the Finance and Budget Parliamentary Committee, which was
scheduled for tomorrow, Monday, September 13, 2021, has been postponed to a
later date, due to the passing of the father of the Committee’s Chairman, MP
Ibrahim Kanaan, who will be receiving condolences at the family home in Qornet
Shahwan throughout the day.
Arab Unification Party issues clarification statement over
Wahhab’s words in Russian, Ukrainian issue
NNA/September 12/2021
The Media Secretariat of the "Arab Unification Party" issued a statement this
evening, in response to what was circulated by some social media sites about the
Party's leader, Wiam Wahhab, during a television interview, and his words on the
Russian and Ukrainian issue, whereby the statement clarified that “what the
Party leader was referring to was actually the Russian and Ukrainian beauty and
nothing else,” adding, “For our part, we appreciate the struggle of Russian
women throughout history in the face of the Nazi occupation, up to the wars that
Russia fought in Syria and worldwide."The statement described the Russian women
as "first-class women, who deserve our admiration and love and have occupied the
highest positions in state institutions, the army and Russian society." "All
appreciation and respect to both the Russian and Ukrainian women,” the statement
reiterated, expressing readiness for any apology in case for Minister Wahhab's
words were misunderstood.
Sami Gemayel meets in Egypt with Petroleum & Mineral
Resources Minister
NNA/September 12/2021
Lebanese Kataeb Party Chief, Sami Gemayel, visited the Egyptian capital, Cairo,
where he met a number of officials to discuss dossiers of mutual interest to
both countries. In this context, Gemayel met today with the Minister of
Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Tarek El-Molla, who briefed him on "the latest
developments in the file of bringing Egyptian gas to Lebanon through Jordan and
Syria in its various technical and political aspects." He also pointed to "some
obstacles that may appear later and ways to address them." Gemayel thanked the
Egyptian Minister for "his country's keen concern for Lebanon and exerted
efforts to help the Lebanese out of the crisis they are suffering from,
particularly in the field of electricity."
Lebanese take refuge in sarcasm over ‘handsome’ new
ministers
Najia Houssari/Arab News/September 12/2021
BEIRUT: The good looks of Lebanon’s new Economy Minister Amin Salam and Energy
Minister Walid Fayad have caught the eye of many on social media, especially
Lebanese women. After the ministers’ biographies and pictures were published,
they went viral. Lebanese singer Nawal Al-Zoghbi admired Salam’s handsomeness
and hoped that he would be “up to the task.” The admiring comments disregarded
the ministers’ political affiliations, all the debate about their supposed
independence from the ruling authority, and the observations about their ability
to carry out reforms and gain the confidence of the international community.
Some said that, should Salam or Fayad commit any mistakes in light of the
stifling economic crisis, they would be forgiven. “He can do whatever he wants
to the price of a bundle of bread,” one woman commented on a picture of Salam.
Another woman commented: “How can we insult these two handsome men whenever the
electricity goes out and the price of a bundle of bread rises?” A third
complimented Fayad’s blue eyes, saying: “Your beautiful eyes are enough for us,
we don’t need electricity. I am warning everyone; from now on no one can insult
this minister.”
Some shared Fayad’s picture with the caption: “For a second there I thought
Minister Fayad was James Bond.”An Egyptian woman posted: “Why do our ministers
come with big bellies, while Lebanon’s are so handsome?” Some very sarcastic
comments were also made. “They can always apply to Mr. Lebanon,” one man wrote
under a picture of four good-looking ministers. Amid the ongoing economic,
living standards and security crises, the Lebanese seemed to find refuge in
using irony to alleviate the tragic reality they live in. “No need to apply for
immigration anymore; we have ministers who are nice to look at,” one man
mockingly said.
HIGHLIGHT
Amid the ongoing economic, living standards and security crises, irony is being
used to alleviate the tragic reality of life in Lebanon. Media academic Dr.
Ragheb Jaber said: “Social media provided an expressive space for a people whose
opinion the ruling authority never cared about. Although these platforms do not
make a fundamental change in the governance, sarcasm allows people to say their
piece through hidden messages.”Prominent TV presenter George Kordahi, who was
assigned the Ministry of Information brief, also got his share of sarcastic
comments. Kordahi is known for hosting the Arabic version of the TV show “Who
Wants To Be A Millionaire?” and some people wrote that it would now be called
“Who Will Steal A Million?” in reference to the ruling authority’s corruption.
Some criticized the digitally edited photographs of the ministers, saying:
“Altering pictures on Photoshop will soon turn into fraud in political
action.”Meanwhile, an interview with Minister of Social Affairs Hector Hajjar
raised controversy, ridicule and resentment at what the new government might do.
Hajjar, who is affiliated with the Free Patriotic Movement, stated that “the
crisis as a whole is a foreign economic conspiracy against Lebanon.”He
explained: “So what if people cannot find diapers in stores, they can replace
them with pieces of cloth. I just got back from China, where the people use
neither diapers nor tissues; they replaced everything with washable pieces of
cloth. Why don’t we follow the Chinese model?” Hajjar’s interview sparked a
storm of angry comments, with singer Elissa tweeting: “A sample of our new
government.”MP Wehbe Katicha tweeted: “After hearing the statement of the
‘Minister of Diapers,’ I knew he was going to take us to hell and beyond. Is
this guy serious?” The government is expected to draw up its ministerial
statement — based on which it will hope to gain a vote of confidence in
parliament — once the new ministers return from abroad. Meanwhile, the
never-ending queues in front of gas stations continue. Georges Brax, a member of
the gas station owners’ syndicate, warned: “Stocks will soon run out. Many gas
stations will close in the next few days and the country will be paralyzed by
midweek.”Prime Minister Najib Mikati had warned, minutes after the formation of
his government, that fuel subsidies “will be completely lifted because our money
has dried up.”
Lebanese are the losers from this new government
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/September 12/2021
With tears in his eyes, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati named a new
Cabinet on Friday, supposedly ending the political deadlock that has gripped the
country for more than a year. However, the incoming leadership is unlikely to
bring about the changes desperately sought by the Lebanese and the international
community.
Mikati said that he would set out to end the shortages of fuel, medicine and
food, and stop the collapse of the country. Nevertheless, the prime minister
added, there is no “magic wand” and any solution will require collaboration by
different parties.
With few exceptions, the Cabinet is a recreation of the current corrupt elite,
with each sectarian leader enjoying their share of the lucrative portfolios. The
Lebanese are promised reforms, but the finance ministry responsible for
conducting any audit remains in the hands of parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri,
while the incoming Finance Minister Yousef Khalil is a former senior central
bank official with a questionable role in the country’s financial crisis.
The finance ministry remains an “Ali Baba’s cave” for the political elite,
ensuring that no one will be able to question where money has been spent over
the past three decades. Mikati is putting on a show of compassion, shedding
crocodile tears and saying his heart is broken as he sees a mother unable to buy
medicine for her ailing child. However, behind the soap opera scenes, the prime
minister has a chequered past, and is hardly the right person to bring reform or
justice to the Lebanese people. He has been accused of making illicit gains by
using state subsidized housing loans to buy luxurious apartments in addition to
deals involving the privatization of Lebanon’s mobile network in the 1990s.
People are desperate and ready to accept anything. Those bargaining for a change
in the system now seem ready to settle for a slight improvement in the currency
exchange rate against the US dollar.
Few know the ins and outs of the deal between Mikati and President Michel Aoun
that led to the formation of the government, whether Aoun has really
relinquished the “blocking third” of the Cabinet to control all government
decisions, and if so what guarantees he received in return, but one thing is
certain — the Lebanese are the losers in all this.
The political elite played the game of desperation and exhaustion, driving
people to their knees so that they would lower their demands. Initially, civic
groups called for a complete change of the political structure and its
replacement with a “clean” class of professionals. People took to the streets,
but their pleas fell on deaf ears. The political class has benefited from the
misery of people struggling to meet their basic needs, and with little time or
energy to protest.
People are desperate and ready to accept anything. Those bargaining for a change
in the system now seem ready to settle for a slight improvement in the currency
exchange rate against the US dollar. As for international pressure from France
and the US, the political elite has shown its willingness to comply, though the
government it has devised contains none of the independent specialists demanded
by Paris and Washington.
Last week, following a US Congressional delegation visit to Lebanon, Aoun
pledged that a government would be formed within days. He delivered on his
promise and the international community breathed a sigh of relief. However, we
have yet to see what action this government will take, and since the political
elite remains in control there is little to be expected. No real reforms are
likely to take place. At best the government will introduce cosmetic changes to
give the impression of reform.
The political elite now can focus on the election and on ways to crush the
nascent opposition to the regime. While some would like to read the formation of
the government as good news, it is no more than the “same old same old.”
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on
lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace
Building, a Lebanese NGO focused on Track II. She is also an affiliate scholar
with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at
the American University of Beirut.
Message to Lebanon’s new Cabinet: Prove us all wrong
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/September 12/2021
After endless wrangling, Lebanon’s government was put together in exactly the
same way as all Lebanese governments before it — posts carved up among
avaricious factions, and talk of “blocking thirds” and monopolies over
ministries. This is a government compiled under the dictates of Gebran Bassil
and Hassan Nasrallah, sealed with the kiss of approval from Tehran.
With central bank official Youssef Khalil as Finance Minister, former Washington
envoy (and my old maths teacher) Abdallah Bouhabib as Foreign Minister, and UN
envoy Najla Riachi (the sole female appointment) as Minister of Administrative
Reform, there have at least been attempts to add appropriate window dressing.
The question is whether the international community will suspend its disbelief
and reopen the financial taps, despite Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s conspicuous
failure to make tangible promises to reform the clientelist and sectarian
underpinnings of a fundamentally corrupt system.
What Mikati did tearfully promise, however, is to prepare the ground for next
year’s elections. If he fails in everything else, these elections are Lebanon’s
sole prospect for salvation, offering citizens the opportunity to pass judgment
on utterly irredeemable leaders. This is a nation where suicide rates and use of
anti-depressants have gone through the roof. A once world-beating education
system is collapsing because of teachers fleeing abroad, as poverty, power and
internet cuts, COVID and fuel shortages make school trips impossible. Many
children have been out of school since civil unrest in October 2019, and private
schools and childcare particularly fell victim to the eradication of most
families’ disposable income.
Key to success is whether Khalil and Riachi can restore Lebanon’s financial
viability. It’s one thing to slash unaffordable subsidies, because Lebanon’s
leaders have never heeded the cries of woe of its citizenry; it is quite another
to call a halt to the kleptocratic schemes that allowed factional warlords to
live like kings, while cash-starved infrastructure and public services
functioned at the level of a failed state. There is debate over whether Khalil’s
proximity to the central bank and to Nabih Berri makes him part of the problem
or part of the solution.
When Lebanese consider themselves lucky if they have three hours of electricity
a day, the ultimate provocation is the energy ministry going to Walid Fayyad — a
member of Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, whose monopoly over this
department facilitated the draining away of billions of dollars while leaving
people in the dark. Likewise, Aoun’s choice of justice minister will be
perceived as a means of hamstringing the various probes necessary to spotlight
and address mismanagement and incompetence.
A key Hezbollah ally is new deputy prime minister, Saadeh Al-Shami, affiliated
with the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, while journalist Abbas Al-Hajj Hassan
is to be Agriculture Minister and Hezbollah-aligned academics are assigned to
the ministries of culture and public works, which have been bywords for
Hezbollah corruption and institutional exploitation. As for Hezbollah being
awarded the ministry of culture – I am utterly speechless!
Even those who sincerely despise those who assembled this government desperately
pray for its success. Never has more been at stake for this drowning nation.
Mikati meanwhile pledged: “I will knock on the doors of Arab countries because
we need to rebuild the burned bridges. Lebanon belongs to this Arab world.” But
Arab states want more than fine words. Will Mikati’s administration halt the
flood of narcotics arriving by the ton in Arab, African and European ports,
hidden inside Lebanese-exported goods, while Beirut demonstrates zero interest
in investigating how Hezbollah has transformed Lebanon into a narco state? How
will Mikati address the awkward fact that Hezbollah’s closest transnational
partners have been persistently firing missiles into Gulf states?
With Gulf states’ overriding concerns about Iranian hegemony over Lebanon and
its neighbors, will Mikati acknowledge that his government was given the green
light only after French President Emmanuel Macron’s special pleading to
President Ebrahim Raisi? Ultimately, Iran arguably had no choice but to allow
this government to emerge, as the unimaginable levels of human suffering even in
Hezbollah strongholds increasingly augured disaster for Tehran’s protégés at the
upcoming polls.
Mikati is, before all else, a long-standing friend and business partner of the
Assad regime. Already we are seeing an upscaling of Lebanese official engagement
with Syrian counterparts. Let’s be clear: Arab boycotts have always been a
disaster. The absence of Arab engagement with Iraq after 2003, and more recently
Lebanon and Syria, was an open invitation to Iranian supremacy. Hence, Arab
engagement must be calibrated to maximize the interests of ordinary Syrians,
while minimizing legitimization of a genocidal and criminal regime. Mikati,
meanwhile, must choose his international friends and allies carefully if he is
to dig Lebanon out of this hole. Eyebrows have been raised after the Mikati
family business, M1, purchased a $105 million stake in the Myanmar telecoms
market from a Norwegian company that pulled out after the junta insisted on
installing intercept software, allowing it to more efficiently crush its
populace. There are unprecedented levels of vigilance among ordinary citizens.
Missives from personnel within banks and ministries regarding institutional
corruption and shortcomings are avidly followed on social media. Today we
require every citizen to turn themselves into an investigative journalist and
whistleblower, to monitor if and when this administration fails to perform.
This new government is the old guard’s final — final — chance. If it again
becomes a rubber stamp for Tehran, or a launchpad for Bassil’s deluded
presidential ambitions, these figures must be punished at the elections as
nobody has ever been punished before. Nevertheless, even those who sincerely
despise those who assembled this government desperately pray for its success.
Never has more been at stake for this drowning nation.
The appointment of the presenter of “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire,” George
Kurdahi — an unforgivable admirer of Assad and Nasrallah — as Information
Minister symbolizes all we need to know about this new administration. Is this a
rallying call for ordinary citizens to rediscover wealth and prosperity, or is
it an invitation for Lebanon’s millionaire warlord elite to continue their
corrupt old ways?
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.
ماتي فريدمن/موقع التابلت: الحرب اللبنانية-الإسرائيلية
الثانية سوف تبدأ دون اذار ونتائجها ستكون كارثية
The Next Lebanon War/It will start without warning. And the consequences are
likely to be enormous.
Matti Friedman/The Tablet/September 12/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/102337/matti-friedman-the-tablet-the-next-lebanon-war-it-will-start-without-warning-and-the-consequences-are-likely-to-be-enormous-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%aa%d9%8a-%d9%81%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%af%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%88/
The rule for watching the Israel-Lebanon frontier is that although nothing seems
to be going on, something always is. Nothing seemed to be going on, for example,
on one of the afternoons I recently spent along the electrified fence trying to
sense the course of events this fraught summer, gazing out at a green blanket of
shrubbery stretching toward a cluster of Lebanese homes nearby. All was still in
the late summer heat.
A bush rustled just across the fence and a gray sunhat appeared, followed by a
bearded face and then a purposeful body belonging to a young man in a black
Adidas soccer jersey—Hezbollah, but armed only with a camera. Anyone who’s ever
spent time in an ambush or on guard duty knows how thrilling it is to have
something to do after hours of boredom, and there was a spring in the man’s step
as he strode in our direction. He raised his telephoto lens at a spot about 50
yards from where I watched with an Israeli officer and two soldiers. The
guerrillas don’t operate alone, but the photographer’s comrades, presumably
equipped with more than cameras, remained in the bushes, unseen.
The Hezbollah lookouts in the windows of the placid town nearby, Ayta ash-Shab,
and scattered throughout the underbrush had probably seen the Israeli Jeep
climbing the approach road to the border emplacement and knew its multiple
antennas meant it belonged to a commander. They were waiting. The officer wasn’t
surprised to see the photographer, who snapped a few dozen shots of us. We took
a few cell-phone shots of him. Hezbollah watches the army watching Hezbollah
watching the army. “This sector is like a game of chess,” the officer said.
The Lebanon frontier is rarely the first worry for Israelis or for international
onlookers. There’s usually something that seems more urgent. But wise observers
never take their eyes off this border for long. Looking west along the ridge
from the point where I encountered the Hezbollah photographer, for example, it’s
possible to see the spot near a bend in the road where, as usual, nothing
appeared to be going on until one day in 2019 the army uncovered a Hezbollah
attack tunnel 80 yards underground, with stairs rising to an exit located 250
yards inside Israeli territory. A sign in the tunnel read “To Jerusalem.” The
guerrillas had been digging it for years. The army destroyed it, along with five
others that were revealed at different points along the fence. Awareness of the
border then receded, as it does, but anyone paying attention knows Hezbollah is
hard at work and working hard to conceal it. Glimpses become possible here and
there. Last year, what seemed to be a civilian home in the town of Ain Qana
exploded when a Hezbollah weapons store detonated. And a few months ago, in an
attempt to bring attention to what’s being built beneath the civilian landscape
of Lebanon, the army released photos of what it identified as another weapons
cache. This one, in the village of Ebba, was concealed in a civilian building
next to a school.
What’s different this summer is that some of the important changes on the
Lebanese side have become easier to see. Lebanon has long been a husk of a
country, a loose arrangement among competing sects and factions, but now an
economic crisis threatens to push the remains of the state toward genuine
collapse. The young Israelis in the lookout posts can see it with the naked eye.
Take Outpost Nurit, for example, one of the border emplacements I visited with
the officer. (Nurit means “buttercup,” an odd name for a military position, but
the army has always given bucolic names to its bases around here. I spent part
of my own military service in the late 1990s inside Lebanon at a place called
Pumpkin.) The outpost’s soldiers used to look every night at the lights of
nearby Ayta ash-Shab. But now the village is mostly dark because electricity is
scarce. The price of fuel nearly doubled just last month, and a few days before
my encounter with the photographer, two Lebanese civilians were killed in a
shootout at a gas station. A few days later, more than two dozen died when a
fuel truck blew up in circumstances that remain unclear. Bakeries are struggling
to keep the ovens going, supermarkets are throwing out meat because they lack
power to run freezers, and half of the country’s people, about 3 million of
them, are below the poverty line and sinking.
The trickle of desperate civilians trying to get across the border into
Israel—some Sudanese migrants and other foreigners, but Lebanese citizens as
well—has increased. They’re usually spotted by the young women soldiers in rooms
full of screens who keep track of the border cameras and sensors, then
intercepted by patrols of the brigade of military engineers currently
responsible for the fence in this sector. I met a few of the brigade’s sunburned
20-year-olds lounging by their Humvee at the gate of a base just west of
Buttercup, Outpost Livneh (“birch”), under towering concrete barriers erected to
block sight lines and bullets from Lebanon, which is just a few yards away.
Driving the zigzag road up the border ridge from Western Galilee takes you out
of Israel and into a high-elevation world that feels like somewhere else—a kind
of in-between country that almost seems more Lebanese than Israeli. Down in the
lowlands are beaches and restaurants where you can forget Lebanon and Hezbollah,
but not up here. Israeli civilians live as close to the fence as the soldiers,
but unlike soldiers, they never rotate out. At places like Kibbutz Adamit, the
people who raise chickens and apples have lived through a half century of
violence going across the border in both directions. There were the years of
infiltrations by Palestinian terrorists in the ’70s and ’80s, such as the attack
on a civilian bus at Avivim that killed 12 civilians, including 9 kids, or the
one at the kindergarten at Kibbutz Misgav Am, or the school in Ma’a lot. There
were dozens.
Then came Israel’s first major incursion against the Palestinian fighters in
Lebanon in 1978, as the Lebanese tore themselves apart in a 15-year civil war;
then the big, botched Israeli invasion of ’82, the First Lebanon War; then the
18 years of small-scale combat in Israel’s “security zone” in south Lebanon,
which saw the eclipse of the Palestinian groups and the rise of the Shi’a army
Hezbollah and its backers from Iran. That period, which the Israeli government
finally recognized officially as a war just this year, ended in 2000 with a
disorderly overnight withdrawal and the abandonment of Israel’s local Lebanese
allies, followed by a Hezbollah takeover the same day. Viewed from the summer of
2021, it was an event reminiscent in nature, though of course not in scale, of
the U.S. retreat from Afghanistan. The withdrawal in 2000 was followed by small
attacks and infiltrations—three soldiers killed on patrol, a shepherd murdered
in Western Galilee as he tended his flock, two army technicians shot off an
antenna at Outpost Buttercup—and then, in the summer of 2006, by the Second
Lebanon War.
Just beneath Outpost Birch, a few steps from the electrified fence, I stopped
the car at the spot on the road where a Hezbollah team had crossed the border
that summer of 2006 and surprised a routine patrol of army reservists, spiriting
two bodies into Lebanon to serve as bargaining chips. An Israeli tank rushed
into position by Outpost Buttercup, which Hezbollah anticipated, having kept a
close eye on army maneuvers: An IED destroyed the tank and killed everyone
inside.
Over the following month northern Israel was hit by thousands of rockets, and
parts of Lebanon were ravaged by the Israeli Air Force. I covered that war,
living in my parents’ reinforced “safe room” just south of the border in
Nahariya, which became a ghost town as residents fled south. Since then,
everyone here has been waiting for the “next war,” which is considered a
foregone conclusion and is universally described in advance as much worse than
the last one. Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal is bigger and deadlier than it was 15
summers ago, and in the Next War, it won’t be only northern Israel that’s in
range. Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran are more emboldened now than they were in
2006, while our patrons, the Americans, are confused and ailing. We’re strong
and heavy, and Hezbollah has the element of surprise. There isn’t likely to be a
buildup. The Next War will start like the last one, all at once, when nothing
seems to be happening.
Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran are more emboldened than they were in 2006, while
our patrons, the Americans, are confused and ailing.
Dan Kohn has lived at Kibbutz Adamit for 50 years. In the last war, when most
people in the border zone evacuated to the south, he and the other residents
stayed put. They’re so close to the fence that the Hezbollah munitions sailed
right over their heads. Nothing hit the kibbutz until the last day of the war,
when a Katyusha rocket destroyed a Daewoo Super Racer belonging to Kohn’s son,
who’d parked it a few minutes before. Like most Israelis, Kohn has considerable
regard for Hezbollah. “When they come over the fence, it won’t be with just two
or three people, like the Palestinian groups in the old days,” he said. It’ll be
a few dozen. The army has been warning that the Next War could involve an
attempt by Hezbollah to capture an entire Israeli community and hold it, even
just for a few hours or a day. This kibbutz would be one obvious target. It
wouldn’t be that hard. It’s true that the army destroyed those six tunnels under
the border. “But I sometimes wonder if they found the seventh,” Kohn said.
The residents of Adamit have regular meetings with army officers, who’ve assured
them that in the case of a Hezbollah incursion, soldiers will reach them in
minutes. “I don’t believe a word they say,” Kohn told me, but he didn’t seem too
worried. Lebanon, with its bewitching landscape and tendency to deliver
unpleasant surprises, is just part of his life. He took me for a drive along the
fence, past the neighboring Bedouin village of Aramsheh, whose Israeli residents
have relatives on the Lebanese side. We saw the blue metal barrels painted with
the letters “UN” that mark the international border. A white UN helicopter
passed overhead, part of the toothless international force that is meant to keep
the peace along the border but can do nothing about Hezbollah. This afternoon
the pilot would report, no doubt, that nothing was going on.
As I drove to meet Kohn at Adamit on Aug. 4, the radio reported a three-rocket
attack launched from Lebanon, attributed to a Palestinian faction. No one was
hurt. Israel responded with airstrikes that didn’t hurt anyone either, and then
Hezbollah fired a barrage of 19 rockets over the border, the first time it had
claimed responsibility for such an attack since the 2006 war. It was a uniquely
public step. In a sign of growing stress inside Lebanon, the Hezbollah team that
fired the rockets was detained and roughed up by furious Druze villagers who
understood that their lives were at risk if the Israelis fired back. One of the
Druze filmed it and put the video online. That was unique too.
The events demonstrate the immense gap between the concerns of Israelis and the
preoccupations of Western observers. Israel now has Iranian proxies and allies
on its borders with Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza and is regularly rocketed from
territories it ceded in south Lebanon in 2000 and in Gaza in 2005. Since the
2006 war with Hezbollah, and through several rounds of fighting with Hamas, the
propaganda of these groups has found purchase in Western societies and capitals.
Hezbollah, like Hamas and like the Iranians who support them both, have an acute
grasp of the addled intellectual moment in the United States and of the
ideological confusion of what remains of the Western press.
They understand that the rocket launch from the civilian backyard in Gaza or
Lebanon won’t be filmed; the innocent people killed in the Israeli counterstrike
will be captured by a dozen film crews, then tweeted by supermodels and a few
members of Congress as #IsraeliGenocide. A Hezbollah weapons warehouse located
next to a school elicits a shrug; its destruction by an Israeli jet will be the
subject of an “investigation” by Human Rights Watch and a photo essay in The New
York Times in which a single empty school desk stands, undamaged and
picturesque, in the rubble. The script is already written. Javad Zarif, until
recently the Iranian foreign minister, has learned to condemn Israel not as an
affront to the regime’s brand of fundamentalist Islam, but to “human rights,
humanitarian law, and international law,” and growing numbers of Westerners
think this makes sense. All of this was put to effective use by Israel’s enemies
in the last war in Gaza in May—and all of it will come into play with greater
force in the Next Lebanon War, whenever it happens.
Spending time on the border with Yitzhak Huri, a lieutenant colonel who’s the
second-in-command of the army brigade in this sector, I asked if he thought
Lebanon’s disintegration and the desperation of its citizens made war more or
less likely. Does the crisis lead the Lebanese to pull back to avoid further
mayhem, or go for broke? “When a person has nothing to lose, you can’t know what
he’s capable of,” Huri said. “The same goes for countries.”
I put the same question to the Lebanon watcher David Daoud, who was born to a
Jewish family in Beirut and lives in Washington, D.C., where he works with the
Atlantic Council and the advocacy group United Against a Nuclear Iran. Hezbollah
has never wanted Lebanon to be a prosperous state “like Israel or Singapore,”
Daoud said, because that would limit its autonomy. But at the same time, he
said, the organization’s interests aren’t served by another civil war or the
kind of state collapse that would be hastened by a war with Israel at this
moment. The group is more likely, Daoud thinks, to try to use the current crisis
to make itself even more central to the lives of its followers by doing what it
has always done: providing services that should be provided by the state but
aren’t. Hezbollah is already distributing bread and fuel, and if it plays its
cards right, it will emerge stronger. “The crisis hasn’t weakened Hezbollah, but
it has constrained them to such an extent that they must act responsibly on the
border,” Daoud said.
That’s why, for example, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah quickly announced
that his group’s recent 19-rocket barrage was purposely aimed at open fields,
not at Israeli civilians or even soldiers. He’s trying to project strength to
his followers, insisting he’s unafraid of war, while calibrating his actions to
avoid an explosion he won’t be able to handle. But it’s a hazardous game. Both
sides may not want a war, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be one. Things could
easily slip out of control no matter how closely each side watches the other.
What do Israelis see when we look into Lebanon? A place with beautiful forests
and beaches, where different groups of people share a strip of Levantine coast,
one that could have been as successful as Israel or more so—the “Switzerland of
the East,” as people said in the ’50s and ’60s. Some of us see a country that
has been an arena for misguided Israeli policies or the backdrop for a potent
chapter of our own young lives as soldiers. Many see a continuous threat.
But there’s another story we might see across the fence this summer, as we
struggle to emerge from an unprecedented period of political dysfunction of our
own, with four elections in two years and no national budget, with political
leaders who’ve tried to convince us to see each other as enemies, and with
internal divisions that feel less bridgeable than ever before. Lebanon is a
country that allowed itself to be hollowed out. Its different sects failed to
create a national story about citizenship that superseded other loyalties, and
the state was paralyzed until the fragile edifice corroded, until the forces of
progress faded or emigrated and were replaced by religious and tribal powers not
just indifferent to modernity but openly contemptuous of it. It’s a story of
state collapse, which is one of the themes of this region in our times. The
forces of disintegration are weaker in Israel than they are in Lebanon, but
they’re present and will win if we let them. The neighbor across the fence isn’t
just a problem or a threat. Lebanon is a possible future.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/lebanon-matti-friedman
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on September 12-13/2021
Pope Warns Of 'Threat Of Antisemitism' In
Europe
AFP/September 12/2021
Pope Francis warned on Sunday of "the threat of antisemitism" in Europe and
beyond in an address to Christian and Jewish leaders during a brief visit to
Hungary, where he also met anti-migration premier Viktor Orban. "I think of the
threat of antisemitism still lurking in Europe and elsewhere. This is a fuse
that must not be allowed to burn. And the best way to defuse it is to work
together, positively, and to promote fraternity," the pontiff said.
Iran to Allow New Memory Cards in U.N.'s Nuclear Site
Cameras
Associated Press/September 12/2021
Iran agreed Sunday to allow international inspectors to install new memory cards
into surveillance cameras at its sensitive nuclear sites and to continue filming
there, averting a diplomatic showdown this week. The announcement by Mohammad
Eslami of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran after a meeting he held with
the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi,
in Tehran still leaves the watchdog in the same position it has faced since
February, however. Tehran holds all recordings at its sites as negotiations over
the U.S. and Iran returning to the 2015 nuclear deal remain stalled in Vienna.
Meanwhile, Iran is now enriching small amounts of uranium to its closest-ever
levels to weapons-grade purity as its stockpile continues to grow. "I am glad to
say that today were able to have a very constructive result, which has to do
with the continuity of the operation of the agency's equipment here," Grossi
said. It "is indispensable for us to provide the necessary guarantee and
information to the IAEA and to the world that everything is in order." Eslami
described the negotiations between Iran and the Vienna-based IAEA as "sheerly
technical" without any room for politics. He said Grossi would return to Iran
soon to talk with officials, without elaborating. Also left unsaid was whether
Iran would hand over copies of the older recordings, which Tehran had threatened
previously to destroy. "The memory cards are sealed and kept in Iran according
to the routine," Eslami said. "New memory cards will be installed in cameras.
That is a routine and natural trend in the agency's monitoring system." A joint
statement released by the IAEA and Iran confirmed the understanding, saying only
that "the way and the timing are agreed by the two sides."The announcement could
buy time for Iran ahead of an IAEA board meeting this week in which Western
powers had been arguing for Tehran to be censured over its lack of cooperation
with international inspectors. Eslami said Iran would take part in that meeting
and its negotiations with the IAEA would continue there. The IAEA told member
states in its confidential quarterly report last week that its verification and
monitoring activities have been "seriously undermined" since February by Iran's
refusal to let inspectors access their monitoring equipment. The IAEA said
certain monitoring and surveillance equipment cannot be left for more than three
months without being serviced. It was provided with access this month to four
surveillance cameras installed at one site, but one of the cameras had been
destroyed and a second had been severely damaged, the agency said. Iran and
world powers agreed in 2015 to the nuclear deal, which saw Tehran drastically
limit its enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic
sanctions. In 2018, then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America
from the accord, raising tensions across the wider Middle East and sparking a
series of attacks and incidents.
President Joe Biden has said he's willing to re-enter the accord, but so far,
indirect talks have yet to see success. In the meantime, Iran elected Ebrahim
Raisi, a hard-line protégé of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as
president. Raisi also has said he wants Iran to regain the benefits of the
accord, though Tehran in general has struck a tougher pose since his victory. In
Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Nafatli Bennett urged world powers to not "fall
into the trap of Iranian deception that will lead to additional concessions"
over the impasse. Israel, widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, has long
accused Iran of seeking an atomic bomb. Tehran maintains its program is
peaceful, though U.S. intelligence agencies and international inspectors believe
the Islamic Republic pursued the bomb in an organized program up until 2003.
"You must not give up on inspecting sites and the most important thing, the most
important message is that there must be a time limit," Bennett said. Iran is
"dragging on, we must set a clear-cut deadline that says: until here."The
premier added: "The Iranian nuclear program is at the most advanced point ever.
... We must deal with this project."Israel is suspected of launching multiple
attacks targeting Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, as well as killing a scientist
associated with Iran's one-time military nuclear program last year. From Riyadh,
the top diplomats of Saudi Arabia and Austria jointly expressed concern over
Iran's nuclear advances, with Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg
citing "Iran's failure to allow access for nuclear inspections."
IAEA Chief in Iran for Talks on Nuclear Dispute
Agence France Presse/September 12/2021
The chief of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog was in Iran Sunday for talks on the
nuclear dispute, days after the IAEA criticized Tehran for a lack of
cooperation. Rafael Grossi, who arrived in Tehran the previous evening, was to
meet Iran's vice president Mohammad Eslami, who also heads the country's nuclear
agency, official sources said. Grossi's visit comes as talks remain locked in
Vienna on saving Tehran's 2015 deal with major powers that promised it sanctions
relief in return for curbs on its nuclear program. The landmark deal was
torpedoed in 2018 by former US president Donald Trump's unilateral decision to
withdraw the United States from it and impose a punishing sanctions regime. Iran
has since stepped away from many of its commitments, but the administration of
U.S. President Joe Biden has advocated a return to diplomacy to save the
agreement. A point of contention this year has been limits Iran has imposed on
the IAEA's ability to monitor various of its nuclear facilities. It has refused
to provide real-time footage from cameras and other surveillance tools that the
UN agency has installed in these locations. Under a compromise deal, the
monitoring equipment remains in the agency's custody but the data is in Iran's
possession, and must not be erased as long as the arrangement remains in force.
Initially agreed for three months, the compromise was extended by another month
and then expired on June 24. The IAEA has since been urging Tehran to inform it
of its intentions. In its statement last Tuesday, the IAEA said its
"verification and monitoring activities have been seriously undermined" by
Tehran's actions. It also said that Iran had boosted its stocks of uranium
enriched above the levels allowed in the 2015 deal formally known as the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran's ultraconservative new President
Ebrahim Raisi said Wednesday that his country was "transparent" about its
nuclear activities. The state-run Iran newspaper said the two sides would
discuss Sunday "the temporary arrangement... on the supervision of IAEA
inspectors and the contents of IAEA surveillance cameras installed in Iranian
nuclear centers." Grossi -- on his second trip to Iran this year -- was expected
to hold a press conference on his return to Vienna airport around 8:30 pm (18:30
GMT).
Afghan Police Return to Work alongside Taliban at
Airport
Agence France Presse/September 12/2021
Afghan police at Kabul airport have returned to work manning checkpoints
alongside Taliban security for the first time since the Islamists seized power,
officers said Sunday. When the Taliban swept into Kabul last month ousting the
government, police abandoned their posts, fearful of what the Islamists would
do. But two officers said they had returned to work Saturday after receiving
calls from Taliban commanders. On Sunday, an AFP correspondent at the airport
saw border police members deployed at several checkpoints outside the main
buildings of the airport, including the domestic terminal. "I came back to work
yesterday more than two weeks after being sent home," one of the police force
members told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity. "I received a call from a
senior Taliban commander who asked me to come back," another officer said.
"Yesterday was great, so happy to serve again." The Taliban say they have
granted a general amnesty to everyone who worked for the former government --
including the army, police and other security branches. Officials say they want
to integrate the opposing forces, but have not spelled out how this will happen
-- or how they will sustain a security apparatus made up of around 600,000
people. Kabul airport was severely damaged during the chaotic evacuation of over
120,000 people that ended with the withdrawal of U.S. forces on August 30. The
Taliban, who swept into Kabul after routing government forces on August 15, have
been scrambling to get the capital's airport operating again with Qatari
technical assistance. The United Arab Emirates has set up an air bridge to
deliver tons of aid to Afghanistan, with aircraft bringing in hundreds of tons
of medical and food supplies. An airport employee who handles security for a
private company confirmed that the border police had been deployed around the
airport since Saturday. "They are sharing the security with the Taliban," he
told AFP. Qatar Airways has operated charter flights out of Kabul in recent
days, carrying mostly foreigners and Afghans who missed being taken out during
the evacuation. An Afghan airline resumed domestic flights last week, while
Pakistan International Airlines is expected to begin flights from Islamabad to
Kabul in coming days.
Iraq PM Visits Iran for Economic Talks
Agence France Presse/September 12/2021
Iraq's Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi met Iran's recently-elected President
Ebrahim Raisi on Sunday to discuss the neighbors' economic relations, official
sources said. Kadhemi is the first foreign leader to visit the
ultra-conservative Raisi, and brought along a "high level political and economic
delegation," Iran's official IRNA news agency said. Television showed the Iraqi
premier welcomed by a guard of honor, before immediately beginning a meeting
that IRNA said touched on "questions of mutual and international interest." The
two leaders are expected to hold a news conference later Sunday, state
broadcaster Iribnews reported. As Iran's neighbor to the west, Iraq has sought a
mediating role between Tehran and Arab nations. Since April, it has tried to
broker talks with Saudi Arabia to soothe tensions between the regional rivals.
An Iraqi source had said Friday that Kadhemi would raise energy cooperation and
Iranian-Saudi relations in the talks. Other hot topics include Iraq's
six-billion-dollar debt to Iran, after shortages pushed it to turn to its
neighbor to cover one-third of its gas and electricity needs. This summer Iran
suspended exports for several days over the outstanding amount.
Sunday's meeting is also expected to address the issue of visas for Iranian
pilgrims travelling to Shiite holy sites in Iraq.Iraqi authorities late Thursday
announced new quotas for foreign pilgrims for the Arbaeen pilgrimage in the
Shiite shrine city of Karbala later this month. Kadhemi's office said that
60,000 Iranian pilgrims would be allowed to attend, up from 30,000 previously
announced. rbaeen marks the end of the 40-day mourning period for the killing of
Imam Hussein, grandson of the Prophet Mohammed, by the forces of the caliph
Yazid in 680 AD. The number of visas issued to foreign pilgrims permitted has
dropped sharply in the past two years due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Tunisia's President Says Constitution Must be Amended
Agence France Presse/September 12/2021
Tunisian President Kais Saied has announced plans to form a new government and
said the constitution should be amended, weeks after he sacked his premier and
suspended parliament in moves his critics called a coup.
Speaking to two television channels after a late Saturday evening stroll in
central Tunis, Saied said he would form a new government "as soon as possible"
after selecting "the people with the most integrity". But he declined to give a
specific timeline. Saied also told the television stations that "the Tunisian
people rejected the constitution". He added that such charters are "not eternal"
and stated that "we can introduce amendments to the text." His comments, which
confirmed earlier media speculations on his plans, were dismissed by the
Islamist-inspired Ennahdha party, the largest bloc in parliament. The party in a
statement expressed "its categorical rejection of the attempts of some parties
that are hostile to the democratic process... to push for choices that violate
the rules of the constitution." Ennahda added that it would oppose "an intended
suspension of the application of the constitution and a change to the political
system, possibly through a referendum."The influential UGTT trade union
confederation, which has so far backed Saied, also rejected any "suspension of
the constitution" and called for early legislative elections so that a new
parliament could look into potential constitutional changes.
Dire living conditions
Saied, a legal theorist and former law professor, was elected in 2019 and has
billed himself as the ultimate interpreter of the constitution. He invoked that
power on July 25 to fire the prime minister, freeze parliament and strip MPs of
their immunity, and assume all executive powers. His power grab came amid
chronic legislative infighting that had crippled governance. It was followed by
a sweeping anti-corruption drive that has included detentions, travel bans and
house arrests of politicians, businessmen and judicial officials. Saied has yet
to appoint a new government or reveal a roadmap towards normalization, despite
repeated demands by political parties. His moves have been criticized by judges
and opponents, in particular Ennahdha. But some Tunisians, exasperated by their
political class and its perceived corruption, impunity and failure to improve
living standards more than a decade since the country's protests launched the
Arab Spring, see them as a necessary evil. The chants of "Dignity!" and "Work!"
that filled the air during the revolution have again started to sound at
demonstrations. In images posted around midnight on the Tunisian presidency's
Facebook page, Saied was seen walking down the capital's Bourguiba Avenue as a
crowd sang the national anthem, before he stopped to speak with the TV channels.
Self-immolation -
Earlier that day on the same central thoroughfare, a man had set himself on fire
and later died of his burns -- a desperate act that followed another
self-immolation a week before protesting living conditions . According to
Tunisian media reports, the man who died Saturday was struggling with economic
issues and had come to Tunis from Djerba to seek solutions to his plight. The
deaths recall that of the street vendor who burned himself alive on December 17,
2010 and launched both Tunisia's popular revolution and the wider Arab Spring
that toppled several autocratic leaders in the region. Tunisia, hailed as a rare
democratic success story in the Middle East and North Africa, was struggling
with dire economic woes and the Covid-19 pandemic before being plunged into the
latest political crisis. Saied's comments came a day after he received in Tunis
the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell who expressed the bloc's concerns over
the power grab. "I communicated to the president Europe's apprehensions about
the preservation of democratic gains in Tunisia," Borrell said after talks with
Saied. "The free exercise of legislative power and the resumption of
parliamentary activity are part of these gains and must be respected," he added.
Earlier this month, diplomats from the G7 nations -- Britain, Canada, France,
Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.S. -- called on Saied to return Tunisia to "a
constitutional order."
Iraq's Arbil Airport Attacked by Armed Drones
Agence France Presse/September 12/2021
Armed drones attacked Arbil international airport, which lies near the U.S.
consulate in this northern Iraq city, Kurdish security forces said in a
statement. "There are no victims in the attack carried out by two armed drones,"
said the statement. The airport, which is also the base for a coalition force of
anti-jihadist troops, suffered no damage, according to its director, Ahmed
Hochiar. An AFP correspondent heard two loud blasts and saw black smoke rising
up into the sky and heard sirens around the U.S. consulate. Security forces
sealed off access to the airport zone, said witnesses.
Attacks of this kind, normally targeting U.S. troops or U.S. interests in Iraq,
have become common in recent months. Although no one claims responsibility for
them, Washington blames pro-Iranian forces in Iraq. The use of weaponized drones
is a more recent development that poses a fresh challenge to coalition forces
and the US-installed C-Ram anti-missile defense systems. Booby-trapped drones
were launched against Arbil international airport in July although they did not
cause casualties or material damage that time, either. A few weeks earlier,
three drones targeted the airport in Baghdad, where U.S. troops are also
deployed. Both Iran and the United States have a military presence and allies in
Iraq. There are 2,500 American troops stationed there. This latest attack comes
on the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks on the United States, in
which nearly 3,000 people were killed. Arbil is the capital of the autonomous
region of Iraqi Kurdistan, led by Kurdish President Nechirvan Barzani.
Al-Qaida Chief Appears in New Video Marking 9/11
Anniversary
Associated Press/September 12/2021
Al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri appeared in a new video marking the 20th
anniversary of the Sept. 11, attacks, months after rumors spread that he was
dead. The SITE Intelligence Group that monitors jihadist websites said the video
was released Saturday. In it, al-Zawahri said that "Jerusalem Will Never be
Judaized," and praised al-Qaida attacks including one that targeted Russian
troops in Syria in January. SITE said al-Zawahri also noted the U.S. military's
withdrawal from Afghanistan after 20 years of war. It added that his comments do
not necessarily indicate a recent recording, as the withdrawal agreement with
the Taliban was signed in February 2020. Al-Zawahri made no mention of the
Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan and the capital Kabul last month, SITE added.
But he did mention a Jan. 1, attack that targeted Russian troops on the edge of
the northern Syrian city of Raqqa. Rumors have spread since late 2020 that al-Zawahri
had died from illness. Since then, no video or proof of life surfaced, until
Saturday. "He could still be dead, though if so, it would have been at some
point in or after Jan 2021," tweeted Rita Katz, SITE's director. Al-Zawahri's
speech was recorded in a 61-minute, 37-second video produced by the group's as-Sahab
Media Foundation. In recent years, al-Qaida has faced competition in jihadi
circles from its rival, the Islamic State group. IS rose to prominence by
seizing large swaths of Iraq and Syria in 2014, declaring a "caliphate" and
extending affiliates to multiple countries across the region. IS' physical
"caliphate" was crushed in Iraq and Syria, though its militants are still active
and carrying out attacks. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the shadowy leader of IS was
killed by U.S. special forces in a raid in northwestern Syria in October 2019.
Al-Zawahri, an Egyptian, became leader of al-Qaida following the 2011 killing of
Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan by U.S. Navy SEALs.
Paris welcomes Athens' intention to purchase six additional Rafale fighters
NNA/September 12/2021
French Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly today welcomed Athens' intention to
buy six Rafale fighters, in addition to a previous order to buy 18 French
fighters, AFP reported.She wrote on Twitter: "Excellent
news: Greece has just announced its intention to acquire 6 additional Rafales.
Together, we are moving forward to establish true European independence."
El-Sisi: Muslim Brotherhood has been eating away at
Egypt for 90 years
Arab News/September 12/2021
CAIRO: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said that the Muslim Brotherhood
has been eating away at the mind and body of Egypt for 90 years, in a speech on
the sidelines of the discussion session “Human Rights: Present and Future,” part
of the National Human Rights Strategy. El-Sisi said groups like the Brotherhood
gnawed at the state and created a culture of doubt and mistrust, and he warned
against allowing countries to be destroyed from within, creating millions and
refugees and generations of extremists, and releasing untold damage on the wider
region for decades.
Egypt’s National Human Rights Strategy is designed to promote social, economic,
political and cultural rights, including the main axes of the comprehensive
concept of human rights in the state, in cohesion with Cairo’s national
development path, which establishes the principles of the new republic, and
achieves the goals of Egypt’s Vision 2030. The president’s spokesman said that
the strategy is the first Egyptian integrated and long-term plan in the field of
human rights. He added that the strategy aims to enhance and consolidate what
the state is doing in the areas of supporting the rights of women, children, the
elderly, the disabled and all other marginalized segments of society. Sameh
Shoukry, minister of foreign affairs, said that the strategy embodies a serious
roadmap for human rights. In his speech, El-Sisi added that the strategy would
take five years to implement.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials published on
September 12-13/2021
The Other Special Relationship: Britain and the UAE
Richard Kemp/ Gatestone Institute/September 12/2021
No world leader is better equipped to help us understand and contain this rising
threat to Britain and our international interests than Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown
Prince of Abu Dhabi and the greatest foe of radical Islamism in the Arab world.
He helped stem the escalating regional challenge of the Muslim Brotherhood from
Egypt; his forces combatted Al Shabab in Somalia, supported the Libyan National
Army against its Islamist opponents and fought against Islamic State in Syria
and Iran-sponsored Houthi insurgents, Al Qaida and the Islamic State in Yemen.
Lord Trimble, former First Minister of Northern Ireland and a Nobel Peace Prize
laureate, nominated Mohamed bin Zayed for the same award in recognition of his
"historic achievements in advancing peace in the Middle East".
[W]e should be looking to the UAE's leadership to further strengthen and broaden
them. Britain should stand with them. As with the UAE, we are a close and
historic ally of Israel, with significant influence across the Middle East.
Freed by Brexit from our stifling dependency on the EU, we should now be ready
to play a leading role alongside Abu Dhabi in this strategically important
process, both in our own interests and in the interests of peace in the region.
No world leader is better equipped to help us understand and contain this rising
threat to Britain and our international interests than Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown
Prince of Abu Dhabi (pictured). Intelligence provided by the UAE has helped save
British lives and the country is a world-leader in combatting terrorist finance
and extremist propaganda, including on the internet. (Photo by Karim Sahib/AFP
via Getty Images)
Here in Britain there has been great concern about ruptures to the UK-US special
relationship following the catastrophic unilateral US withdrawal from
Afghanistan and US President Joe Biden's intransigence over the emergency
evacuation from Kabul.
Another long-term special relationship enjoyed by Britain — with the United Arab
Emirates — was also affected by events in Afghanistan, but in a positive
direction. A few days ago, Britain's ambassador in Abu Dhabi said the evacuation
of UK citizens from Kabul was made possible by the assistance of the UAE who
provided a staging airport as well as support from across government ministries.
In Dubai recently, I again witnessed the ever-growing miracle of engineering,
finance and enterprise that has bloomed in the Arabian Desert, aided not least
by Britain's unique connections with the territory and its people since the
early 1800s — a century and a half before the formation of the Emirates as we
know them today. Around 200,000 Britons live in the UAE and more than a million
visit each year, for business or tourism. The UAE is Britain's largest trading
partner in the Middle East, and the UK is the UAE's third biggest partner in
non-oil commodities trade. Britain is one of the largest investors in the UAE,
which also has many major investments here.
Beyond mutual economic benefits, Britain and the UAE have shared geopolitical
interests that echo back 80 years to the decades when Britain helped defend the
land against those who wanted to seize it for themselves. UAE forces — which had
their origins in the British-led Trucial Oman Scouts — fought with the US
coalition in the 1990-91 Gulf War and with NATO in Kosovo. The UAE was the only
Arab nation that deployed troops into Afghanistan during the 20-year campaign,
conducting combat operations alongside other coalition forces and providing
significant humanitarian aid. As well as assisting the British evacuation from
Kabul, the UAE Air Force played a major role of its own in the operation, and
the country is now hosting thousands of Afghan refugees.
With the global fallout from the Afghanistan debacle only just beginning,
Britain's alliance with the UAE will become increasingly important. No longer
curbed by the presence of international forces in the country, Afghanistan is
again poised to become the global hub for jihadist terrorists. Its new interim
government is made up of Taliban old guard, with many hardened terrorists
sitting in the cabinet. Ken McCallum, Director General of MI5, Britain's lead
agency on countering terrorism, warned last week of a greater threat to the UK
in the coming months and years following our withdrawal from Afghanistan.
No world leader is better equipped to help us understand and contain this rising
threat to Britain and our international interests than Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown
Prince of Abu Dhabi and the greatest foe of radical Islamism in the Arab world.
He helped stem the escalating regional challenge of the Muslim Brotherhood from
Egypt; his forces combatted Al Shabab in Somalia, supported the Libyan National
Army against its Islamist opponents and fought against Islamic State in Syria
and Iran-sponsored Houthi insurgents, Al Qaida and the Islamic State in Yemen.
Britain may not agree with all UAE foreign policies — for example their support
for Assad in Syria, which is intended as a buttress against Islamists as well as
Turkish and Iranian aggression — but there is no doubting the value of our
strategic alliance in confronting this multi-generational global menace.
British and UAE intelligence services are close. Intelligence provided by the
UAE has helped save British lives and the country is a world-leader in
combatting terrorist finance and extremist propaganda, including on the
internet. The Emirates actively share their de-radicalisation programmes and
ideas with allies across the Arab world, the West and countries such as India,
which also faces assault by radical Islamists. De-radicalisation is among the
greatest counter-terrorist problems Britain faces today, with tens of thousands
on its watch lists, a growing jihadist prison population and increasing
radicalisation in its universities. The UK's existing de-radicalisation
programmes are clearly failing, as demonstrated by Sudesh Amman and Usman Khan,
who carried out savage attacks in London after release from prison. Britain
should now be looking more to the UAE for urgent help.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan also has wider implications in the Middle
East. Faced with Iranian regional aggression and a growing nuclear threat, Arab
countries are concerned that, under the Biden administration, the US is no
longer a dependable ally. This could cause some to turn increasingly towards
China or Russia, both already active in the region and on the lookout for
opportunities to gain partners and undermine US influence. The other option for
protection — and a far better one from the West's point of view — is Israel,
with the most powerful military in the Middle East and the will to use it when
necessary. Greater reliance on Israel by Arab states, to stave off the nuclear
threat from Iran and challenge its increasing belligerence, has been made
possible by the Abraham Accords, which publicly opened the path for increased
cooperation. The single most important player here was the UAE.
Lord Trimble, former First Minister of Northern Ireland and a Nobel Peace Prize
laureate, nominated Mohamed bin Zayed for the same award in recognition of his
"historic achievements in advancing peace in the Middle East".
Britain and Europe took a lukewarm approach to the accords, partly because they
were driven by then US President Donald J. Trump and partly because the Foreign
Office in London, mired in an outdated understanding of regional dynamics, had
failed to keep up with the thinking of Arab states who no longer saw Israel as
their enemy. Like so many in Europe, unthinkingly wedded to decades of failed
peace processing, London also has been unable to recognise that normalised
relations between Israel and Arab countries is the only way to eventually
persuade Palestinians that their own future and prosperity might lie in the same
direction rather than with continued hostility.
Under Biden, the US is no longer interested in developing the Abraham Accords,
and we should be looking to the UAE's leadership to further strengthen and
broaden them. Britain should stand with them. As with the UAE, we are a close
and historic ally of Israel, with significant influence across the Middle East.
Freed by Brexit from our stifling dependency on the EU, we should now be ready
to play a leading role alongside Abu Dhabi in this strategically important
process, both in our own interests and in the interests of peace in the region.
*Colonel Richard Kemp is a former British Army Commander. He was also head of
the international terrorism team in the U.K. Cabinet Office and is now a writer
and speaker on international and military affairs. He is a Shillman Journalism
Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
In Tehran Much Talk of Talks
Amir Taheri/Asharq al-Awsat/September 12/2021
The current anxiety in Tehran may provide an opportunity for the Vienna talks to
be expanded beyond the chimeric issue of Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Concern about what Tehran might do if and when they make a bomb need not exclude
concern about the mischief it is doing across the Middle East, notably in Iraq,
Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and, of course Afghanistan and Pakistan.
It would be interesting to see how the Biden administration plays an
unexpectedly strong hand it now holds against a regime that claims "the end of
America" as its strategic goal but secretly hopes that the "Great Satan" will
help it get out of the historic black hole dug by a weird ideology.
It would be interesting to see how the Biden administration plays an
unexpectedly strong hand it now holds against the Iranian regime that claims
"the end of America" as its strategic goal but secretly hopes that the "Great
Satan" will help it get out of the historic black hole dug by a weird ideology.
Pictured: Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi speaks before parliament in Tehran on
August 25, 2021.
"Return to the nuclear talks!" This is the advice that China, France and Russia
have been publicly giving to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's new team in
Tehran since they assumed power last month. Other powers, notably Germany, have
echoed that advice in private. There are signs that the new Raisi team may be
listening to that advice or, at least, trying to prepare public opinion for a
return to Vienna with its flag in its pocket. Raisi, who had once dismissed any
negotiations with big powers as "out of the question," now says he always
regarded negotiations as "one instrument of policy." Several developments have
contributed to what seems a less belligerent stance by Tehran. The first is that
the Biden administration seems extra-keen to deal with what it regards as an
"underbrush" issue at a time that the new US president wants to disengage from
the Middle East and focus on the Asia-Pacific, the main theater of rivalry with
China. The fact that Biden is the first US president in 40 years not to have
downgraded the Arab-Israeli issue, not appointing a special point man for it, is
seen in Tehran as one sign of the tectonic shift in American global strategy.
The withdrawal from Afghanistan, likely to be followed by disengagement in Iraq,
is seen as another sign.
Another factor is Biden's refusal to help the "New York Boys" faction in Tehran
by offering a deal that might have saved then President Hassan Rouhani's faction
from obliteration last spring.
More importantly, perhaps, both China and Russia have made it clear that unless
the nuclear issue is settled, they would not enter any strategic partnership
with the Islamic Republic. Keen to see the US reduce its footprint in the
Greater Middle East, both Moscow and Beijing believe that Tehran's anti-American
posture and hostility towards Israel may make it more difficult for Washington
to proceed with its current plans for the region. Domestic issues are also
putting pressure on the mullahs to reach an accommodation with the "Great
Satan". With the economy in poor shape as annual inflation rate tops 50 percent
while the national currency hits new lows every week, Tehran badly needs the
easing of some sanctions. This is why Raisi no longer demands a lifting of all
sanctions.
Another factor that forces Raisi and his team to alter their defiant posture is
the catastrophic situation created by the Covid-19 pandemic. Even regime
apologists admit that "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei's initial ban on importing
vaccines may have claimed tens of thousands of lives. Thus, a minimum of
normalization is needed to tame the pandemic and deal with its economic and
social consequences.
The pandemic, along with economic meltdown and factional feuds within the
establishment, have also encouraged a wave of protests across the country,
protests that in some cases the regime's security forces were unable to cope
with.
The Raisi team is also worried about a revival of armed struggle by regime
opponents. In recent weeks, armed attacks in areas along Iran's northwestern
borders have fomented a sense of insecurity in at least three provinces. Tehran
seems to have been worried enough to dispatch Gen. Pakpur, Commander of the Land
Forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to the affected area with
a warning that if attacks continue, the IRGC will take action against the
autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq where anti-Tehran armed groups are located.
Visiting the area a day later, another IRGC general, Arjomandi Far, claimed that
anti-regime armed groups may have bases in three of Iran's northwestern borders:
Iraq, Turkey and (former Soviet) Azerbaijan.
The latest developments in Afghanistan also contribute to Tehran's current
anxiety over across-the-border threats. So far that threat has come from
dissident groups based in Pakistan while the US presence prevented the shaping
of such a threat in Afghanistan. The current anxiety in Tehran may provide an
opportunity for the Vienna talks to be expanded beyond the chimeric issue of
Iran's nuclear ambitions. Concern about what Tehran might do if and when they
make a bomb need not exclude concern about the mischief it is doing across the
Middle East, notably in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and, of course, Afghanistan
and Pakistan.
Right now the Islamic Republic in Tehran is at its most vulnerable position in
decades. That is a fact that some even within the regime are beginning to
understand. This is why the idea of withdrawing from Syria and the futility of
prolonging the war in Yemen, for example, is no longer taboo.
The Biden administration could use the Vienna talks in pursuit of three ways.
The first is to make an offer the mullahs cannot refuse. If the US could make a
deal with erstwhile foes in Afghanistan, why not do something similar with Iran?
That comparison, however, is flawed. Anti-Americanism was never the ideological
bread-and-butter either of the Afghan Mujahedin or the Taliban that appeared
later to claim the jihadi mantle.
The second option is to offer the mullahs an offer they cannot accept. But that
would force the US to adopt regime change in Tehran as its main objective in
dealing with Iran. And that, of course, would require a continued and stronger
US presence in the region, not withdrawing to focus on Asia-Pacific.
The third option is to regularize the status quo which, when all is considered,
although it has not forced the mullahs into full surrender has, nevertheless,
sharply reduced their mischief-making capabilities. Right now, all three options
seem to have some supporters within the Biden administration and among regional
and European allies. The important thing is that, for the first time since
President Barack Obama allowed the mullahs to seize the initiative, it is the US
that can set the tune. Tehran's relations with all neighbours of Iran and
countries such as China, India and Russia that could throw a lifesaver to a
drowning regime are also tangentially linked to its relations with the US. It
would be interesting to see how the Biden administration plays an unexpectedly
strong hand it now holds against a regime that claims "the end of America" as
its strategic goal but secretly hopes that the "Great Satan" will help it get
out of the historic black hole dug by a weird ideology.
Joe Biden’s ‘get out of jail free’ card
Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/September 12/2021
Amid the continuing debate in some circles over whether US President Joe Biden
will be physically or mentally fit to continue in office until the end of his
term in 2024, there are doubts and skepticism on both sides of the political
aisle about the person who would take over in the event of Biden’s early
departure. The vice president of the United States plays a major role in the
executive branch of the federal government.They preside over the Senate,
although they do not vote unless there is a tie, in which case they have a
casting vote. Contrary to claims made last year, when Donald Trump urged Mike
Pence to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, the vice
president does not have that power. Under the Electoral Count Act of 1887, the
vice president presides over Congress’s certification votes from the individual
states, but may not decide them.
Most importantly, however, according to the 25th Amendment to the US
constitution, “in case of the removal of the president from office, or of his
death, resignation, or inability to discharge the powers and duties of the said
office,” the vice president becomes president. Which brings us to Kamala Harris
— the first South Asian/African American woman to hold the office of vice
president, a heartbeat away from the presidency. Being the first at something,
of course, is not a qualification, unless you are running for office as a
Democrat using the obvious “identity politics” strategy. From several qualified
candidates, Biden picked his running mate based on “what” rather than “who.”
Harris has failed in every mission Biden has given her, causing her approval
rating to plunge even among Democrats. Her lack of leadership was illustrated by
her action — or inaction — when she was designated “border czar,” the
administration's face of the US-Mexico border crisis.
For months, she was missing in action and refused to visit the southern US
border, or even hold a press conference to discuss one of the most important
humanitarian issues in her country. When a TV interviewer pointed out that she
had never visited the border, she laughed it off and replied, infamously: “And I
haven't been to Europe.”
Harris has failed in every mission Biden has given her, causing her approval
rating to plunge even among Democrats.
Although Harris insisted that her approach to the border crisis would focus on
the root causes of the migration problem, her first foreign trip to Guatemala
and Mexico was such a disappointment that even liberal US media outlets began to
question her political adroitness, both as vice president and as a potential
2024 presidential candidate. Harris’s Southeast Asian tour last month did not
improve her national and global profile either, since it was overshadowed by the
Afghanistan debacle, with several foreign powers expressing public doubts about
the US role as the leader of the free world.
Once again, when Harris was asked about the chaotic exit from Afghanistan and
the fate of American citizens there, she at first laughed the question off. Then
she said the Afghanistan issue had the highest priority for the Biden
administration — a statement that might have carried more weight had she made it
in Afghanistan rather than Singapore.
With US citizens still stranded in the new Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, and
thousands of Afghan citizens who helped the US and NATO troops for the past 20
years still at the mercy of the radical Taliban, Harris chose to travel to her
home state of California to campaign for the embattled Democratic Governor Gavin
Newsom. During her rally, a small group of protesters waved Afghan flags and
carried placards that read: “Californians are stranded in Afghanistan. Where’s
Kamala?” This was a reference to 29 California students and their families who
are still stuck in Afghanistan.
What all this means is that Harris is, in effect, Biden’s “get out of jail free”
card. No matter how poor his performance and policies are, he need not fear the
possibility of being impeached before the end of his term — because no one,
whether Republican or Democrat, would want to see “President Harris” in the
White House.
• Dalia Al-Aqidi is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy. Twitter:
@DaliaAlAqidi
Deeds, not words: Egypt’s subtle message to Turkey
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/September 12/2021
The term “exploratory talks” was used to describe the initial discussions
between Turkey and Greece focusing on a range of issues, including their
maritime dispute in the eastern Mediterranean. The dialogue needed to be
“exploratory” because neither side knew if anything concrete would come out of
it. In fact, the 61st round of the talks recently concluded and they are still
being called “exploratory.”
One can only hope that new talks between Turkey and Egypt will move quickly
beyond the exploratory stage to the substance. The joint communique released
last Wednesday following the second round of talks held in Ankara reads like a
proforma statement, so we have to look behind every word to understand what
might have been debated behind closed doors.
According to the statement, the two delegations “addressed bilateral issues as
well as a number of regional topics.” The salient subject in the bilateral
relations is the activities of Muslim Brotherhood members in Turkey. When Turkey
belatedly decided that it was time to resume relations with Egypt, the first
issue on the agenda was the Brotherhood’s operations in Turkey. Three TV
channels operated by the Brotherhood in Istanbul, Al-Sharq, Al-Watan and
Mekameleen, received a warning from Turkish authorities to stop programs
critical of the Egyptian regime.
Another important issue was raising diplomatic relations to the ambassadorial
level. This question was brought up by the Turkish side during the first round
of the exploratory talks, but according to Egyptian media at the time, Cairo
thought that more evidence was needed before the process went ahead. Since no
news on this subject has been leaked during the recent meeting, we may presume
that Egypt is maintaining its hesitancy. The joint statement also underlines
that the delegations addressed regional topics such as Libya, Syria, Iraq,
Palestine and the eastern Mediterranean. On Libya, there is a standstill. The
new caretaker government, formed under the auspices of the UN, invited all
foreign nations to withdraw their forces from the country. Turkey ignored the
invitation by claiming that its forces are in Libya on the invitation of the
legitimate UN-backed Government of National Accord.
Egypt may have raised this question in the meeting, but Turkey is likely to have
used the presence of other military units — for instance, the Wagner Group
forces linked to Russia — as an excuse for its decision to remain.
Syria is the elephant in the room. Egypt, in its capacity as the major Arab
country, must have raised the issue of Turkey’s military presence there, but we
may presume that Turkey remained unmoved. The salient subject in the bilateral
relations is the activities of Muslim Brotherhood members in Turkey.
In Iraq, a meeting held late last month under the title of “Baghdad Conference
for Cooperation and Partnership” provided Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
with a golden opportunity to attend and confer with leaders of the Middle
Eastern countries. But it was a chance the Turkish leader missed.
Palestine is one of the issues on which Turkey and Egypt hold divergent views.
Despite both countries’ support for the Palestinian cause, the question of Hamas
puts them on opposing sides. Egypt is unhappy with the support extended by
Turkey to Hamas. The exchange of views on this subject may have remained
inconclusive.
The eastern Mediterranean is another issue on which Turkey and Egypt have
different positions. Egypt says that it has waited decades for Turkey and Greece
to demarcate their maritime jurisdiction areas. The Greek Cypriots did it with
Egypt in 2003, with Lebanon in 2007 and with Israel in 2010. Turkey did it
belatedly with Libya, bringing a reaction from Greece and Egypt.
The corridor that Turkey and Libya demarcated to link their maritime
jurisdiction area cuts off the Egyptian maritime jurisdiction area from that of
Greece. The Turkish-Libyan accord was signed by the Government of National
Accord operating in Tripoli. This agreement has yet to be approved by the Tobruk-based
parliament operating in cooperation with the renegade Field Marshal Khalifa
Haftar. Therefore, its fate is still uncertain.
An important detail in the text of the joint statement is the reference to
“further steps.” It says that “the two sides agreed to continue these
consultations confirming their desire to make progress in areas under discussion
and the need for further steps to facilitate normalization of their relations.”
This long and convoluted sentence suggests that Egypt is not entirely satisfied
with the steps taken so far by Turkey. Egypt has repeatedly said that it will
decide not according to what Turkey says, but according to what it does.
A resolution critical of Turkey recently adopted in the Arab League, where Egypt
is one of the main players, is another sign of Cairo’s lack of satisfaction at
steps taken by Turkey. Apparently the ball is still in Turkey’s court.
• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the
ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar