English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 05/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Woe to you who are full now, for you will be hungry. ‘Woe to you who are laughing now, for you will mourn and weep
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 06/20-26/:”Jesus looked up at his disciples and said: ‘Blessed are you who are poor, for yours is the kingdom of God. ‘Blessed are you who are hungry now, for you will be filled. ‘Blessed are you who weep now, for you will laugh. ‘Blessed are you when people hate you, and when they exclude you, revile you, and defame you on account of the Son of Man. Rejoice on that day and leap for joy, for surely your reward is great in heaven; for that is what their ancestors did to the prophets. ‘But woe to you who are rich, for you have received your consolation. ‘Woe to you who are full now, for you will be hungry. ‘Woe to you who are laughing now, for you will mourn and weep. ‘Woe to you when all speak well of you, for that is what their ancestors did to the false prophets.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 04-05/2021
We Are enslave By Modern Technology/Elias Bejjani/October 04/2021
Lebanon-Born Scientist Wins Medicine Nobel for Showing How We React to Heat, Touch
Lebanon Resumes Contacts with IMF over Bailout Program
Duquesne in Beirut ahead of Visits by FMs of Iran, Germany, Cyprus
Prosecutors Appeal Acquittal of Hariri Murder Suspects
Report: Awkar Meeting Discusses Raising Army Salaries
Fenianos Files 'Falsification' Complaint against Bitar
Fayyad in Egypt for Gas Talks ahead of Jordan Visit
U.N. Experts Cite War Crimes, Crimes against Humanity in Libya
Play director questioned in Lebanon, fueling freedom worries
Can Mikati make a difference in Lebanon?/
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/October 04/2021
“It is known”/Ana Maria Luca/Now Lebanon/October 04/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 04-05/2021
1.5 Billion Facebook Users' Personal Information Allegedly Posted for Sale/Thomas Kika/Newsweek/October 04/2021
Iran Foresees Nuclear Talks Resuming by Early November
Saudi confirms first round of talks with new Iranian government
Palestinian President Hosts Israeli Ministers in West Bank
Over 550 Europe-Bound Migrants Intercepted off Libya
First Official EgyptAir Flight Lands at Israel Airport
US citizen blocked in Iran needs surgery within days: Family
Iran’s Supreme leader Khamenei defends military drills near Azerbaijan border
Bennett spokesman accuses Iran of planning attacks against Israelis living in Cyprus
Jordan says ‘distorted’ claims in ‘Pandora Papers’ are security threat
Libya parliament adopts law on legislative elections
Syria must admit chemical weapons inspectors: West
Algeria escalates row with Paris, bans French military over-flights

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 04-05/2021
The Taliban Is Using the Doha Accord to Protect Al-Qaeda/Thomas Joscelyn/The Dispatch-FDD/October 04/2021
Biden Brags About Diplomacy. It’s All Spin./Emanuele Ottolenghi/The Dispatch-FDD/October 04/2021
Islamist Terrorism Flourishing Under the Taliban/Con Coughlin/ Gatestone Institute/October 04/021
Biden Ignores Palestinian Support For Terrorists/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/October 04/2021
Cultural Blind Spot: Why America Failed to ‘Win Hearts and Minds’ in Afghanistan/Raymond Ibrahim/October 04/2021
Who Are the Advisors Who Circle a Confused President?/Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/October 04/2021
Algeria, Morocco tensions jeopardise Maghreb-Europe gas supplies/Francis Ghiles/The Arab Weekly/October 04/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 04-05/2021
We Are enslave By Modern Technology
Elias Bejjani/October 04/2021
As you may have noticed, WhatsApp has been down across the globe for over an hour. The same is with Facebook and Instagram, the platforms with more control and power than most countries. Though we don't know the exact reasons for that, this outage comes to show us how fragile our daily means of communication may be, things we rely on may leave us disconnected and highly endangered in case of an emergency. Taking all these facts into consideration should leads us to avoiding as much as we can to not be solely dependent on social media facilities.

Lebanon-Born Scientist Wins Medicine Nobel for Showing How We React to Heat, Touch
Associated Press/05 October ,2021
Two scientists won the Nobel Prize in medicine on Monday for their discoveries into how the human body perceives temperature and touch, revelations that could lead to new ways of treating pain or even heart disease. Americans David Julius and Ardem Patapoutian identified receptors in the skin that respond to heat and pressure. Their work is focused on the field of somatosensation, which explores the ability of specialized organs such as eyes, ears and skin to see, hear and feel. "This really unlocks one of the secrets of nature," said Thomas Perlmann, secretary-general of the Nobel Committee, in announcing the winners. "It's actually something that is crucial for our survival, so it's a very important and profound discovery." The committee said Julius, who was born in New York and now works at the University of California at San Francisco, used capsaicin, the active component in chili peppers, to identify the nerve sensors that allow the skin to respond to heat. Patapoutian, who was born in Lebanon and now works at Scripps Research Institute at La Jolla, California, found separate pressure-sensitive sensors in cells that respond to mechanical stimulation, it said. Perlmann said he managed to get hold of both of the winners — who shared the prestigious Kavli Award for Neuroscience last year — before Monday's announcement. "I (...) only had a few minutes to talk to them, but they were incredibly happy," he said. "And as far as I could tell they were very surprised and a little bit shocked, maybe."The choice of Julius, 65, and Patapoutian underscored how little scientists knew about how our bodies perceive the external world before their discoveries — and how much there still is to learn, said Oscar Marin, director of the MRC Centre for Neurodevelopmental Disorders at King's College London. "While we understood the physiology of the senses, what we didn't understand was how we sensed differences in temperature or pressure," Marin said. "Knowing how our body senses these changes is fundamental because once we know those molecules, they can be targeted. It's like finding a lock and now we know the precise keys that will be necessary to unlock it." Marin said the discoveries opened up "an entire field of pharmacology" and that researchers were already working to develop drugs to target the receptors they identified.
Marin predicted that new treatments for pain would likely come first, but that knowing how the body detects changes in pressure could eventually lead to drugs for heart disease, if scientists can figure out how to alleviate pressure on blood vessels and other organs. Last year's prize went to three scientists who discovered the liver-ravaging hepatitis C virus, a breakthrough that led to cures for the deadly disease and tests to keep the scourge from spreading though blood banks. The prestigious award comes with a gold medal and 10 million Swedish kronor (over $1.14 million). The prize money comes from a bequest left by the prize's creator, Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel, who died in 1895. The prize is the first to be awarded this year. The other prizes are for outstanding work in the fields of physics, chemistry, literature, peace and economics.

Lebanon Resumes Contacts with IMF over Bailout Program
Associated Press/05 October ,2021
Lebanon's Finance Ministry said Monday it has resumed "interactions" with the International Monetary Fund in an effort to pull the small nation out of its worst economic crisis in its modern history. The ministry said the government will work for a fair solution for creditors, but did not give details about the talks. The announcement came a week after the new Cabinet named a delegation to resume bailout negotiations with the international agency after talks were suspended last year. Deep disagreements festered within the Lebanese delegation during last year's negotiations with the IMF, with the government on one side and the central bank and local lenders on the other. The ministry said that Lebanon's government "remains fully committed to engage in a constructive, transparent and equitable debt restructuring process" with all other stakeholders and welcomes bondholders to participate in the process.
In early March 2020, Lebanon defaulted on paying back $1.2 billion in loans, marking its first ever default. Since the crisis began in October 2019, the local currency has lost more than 90% of its value. Days after the default in March last year, the government said Lebanon will stop paying all maturing Eurobonds in foreign currencies that are believed to be worth about $30 billion. Lebanon's total debt is about $90 billion, of which about $60 billion are in the Lebanese pound, making it one of the highest in the world. The situation has become much worse since with billions of dollars of foreign currency reserves spent on subsidies and the crash of the Lebanese pound left more than 70% of Lebanon's population of 6 million people, including 1 million Syrian refugees, in poverty, according to the U.N..The Finance Ministry said Lebanon's government led by Prime Minister Najib Miqati reiterates its commitment to a "fair and comprehensive solution" for all creditors. The World Bank said in June that Lebanon's severe economic and financial crisis is likely to rank as one of the worst the world has seen in more than 150 years. The World Bank said Lebanon's gross domestic product is projected to contract 9.5% in 2021, after shrinking by 20.3% in 2020 and 6.7% the year before.

Duquesne in Beirut ahead of Visits by FMs of Iran, Germany, Cyprus
Naharnet/05 October ,2021
French presidential envoy Ambassador Pierre Duquesne has arrived to Beirut to follow up on the international aid to Lebanon, a mission that had been assigned to him. Duquesne will meet today with Minister of Public Works and Transport Ali Hamiyeh, one of the two ministers assigned by Hizbullah – “which reflects the French interest in the port blast case,” al-Joumhouria newspaper said on Monday. Duquesne will also meet with other ministers to follow up on energy, financial and administrative reforms, and with the ministerial committee in charge of resuming negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, headed by Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh al-Shami, the newspaper added. Meanwhile Prime Minister Najib Miqati will be meeting this week with the U.S. and the EU ambassadors to Lebanon, and with the Foreign Ministers of Iran, Germany and Cyprus. Miqati will meet today, Monday, with the U.S. ambassador Dorothy Shea and on Wednesday with EU ambassadors, the newspaper said.

Prosecutors Appeal Acquittal of Hariri Murder Suspects
Agence France Presse/05 October ,2021
Prosecutors on Monday appealed against the acquittal by a U.N.-backed court of two suspected Hizbullah members over the 2005 murder of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. The prosecutors said judges at the Special Tribunal for Lebanon made "fundamental" errors by not considering circumstantial evidence when they cleared Hussein Oneissi and Hassan Habib Merhi. The Netherlands-based court in August 2020 convicted Salim Ayyash, a member of Hizbullah, over a bomb blast that killed Hariri and 21 others. But judges said there was a lack of evidence to convict the three other defendants -- Oneissi, Merhi, and a fourth man, Assad Sabra. Prosecutors are only seeking to overturn the acquittals of the first two. "The prosecution feels compelled to appeal because of the errors outlined in our brief, which are fundamental to the determination of guilt or innocence," tribunal prosecutor Norman Farrell told the court.
"And lastly, we should not forget that this tribunal has convicted Salim Ayyash and he is at large, and he is a fugitive and he should be brought to justice," added Farrell. All four men were tried in absentia over the February 2005 attack, when a suicide bomber detonated a van full of explosives as Hariri's armored convoy passed on the Beirut waterfront. The case against all four men relied almost exclusively on circumstantial evidence in the form of mobile phone records that prosecutors said showed a Hizbullah cell plotting the attack. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah refused to hand over any of the suspects or to recognize the U.N.-backed court, which has issued an international warrant for the arrest of Ayyash. The court said in April that Ayyash cannot appeal against the verdict until he turns himself in. The Lebanon tribunal is expected to close after the appeals phase because of a cash shortage, with a further case against Ayyash over attacks on several politicians likely to go unheard.

Report: Awkar Meeting Discusses Raising Army Salaries
Naharnet/05 October ,2021
Arab and Western capitals have received warnings that Lebanon’s security and military forces might “truly collapse” unless an urgent aid program that includes a salaries increase is implemented, a media report said on Monday.“After a series of consultations, a meeting was held around 10 days ago at the U.S. Embassy in Awkar, which was attended by representatives of several countries and of the security and military forces,” al-Akhbar newspaper reported. “The urgent needs of these forces were discussed and the Americans promised to hold contacts with their government and with other countries to secure major financial assistance that contributes to improving the salaries of servicemen,” the daily said.

Fenianos Files 'Falsification' Complaint against Bitar
Naharnet/05 October ,2021
Former public works minister Youssef Fenianos has filed a “falsification” complaint against the lead investigative judge into the Beirut port blast Tarek Bitar, TV networks said on Monday. Al-Jadeed TV said Fenianos filed the complaint with the Court of Cassation, accusing Bitar of “falsifying the date of his lawsuit against Judge Ghassan Khoury.”Fenianos had on September 22 asked the same court to remove Bitar because of "legitimate suspicion" over his handling of the case. Bitar had a week earlier issued an arrest warrant for Fenianos after he failed to appear in court for questioning. The judge has accused Fenianos and three other former ministers of intentional killing and negligence that led to the deaths of more than 200 people in the explosion. Over 6,000 were injured in the massive blast that also devastated a large section of Beirut. Bitar has also subpoenaed ex-PM Hassan Diab after the latter failed to attend a hearing session. Several incumbent and former security officials and judges have also been summoned for interrogation.

Fayyad in Egypt for Gas Talks ahead of Jordan Visit
Naharnet/05 October ,2021
Energy Minister Walid Fayyad is in Egypt and will hold intensives meetings today, Monday with the Egyptian petrol and electricity ministers, media reports said. The talks will especially focus on “the possibility of expediting the steps aimed at Lebanon obtaining Egyptian gas as soon as possible,” al-Joumhouria newspaper said. Fayyad, who is accompanied by a delegation, will leave Cairo for Amman on Tuesday evening to meet with his Jordanian and Syrian counterparts to continue discussions over the cooperation protocols related to the Egyptian gas pipeline and the importation of electricity from Jordan via Syria, the daily added.

U.N. Experts Cite War Crimes, Crimes against Humanity in Libya
Associated Press/05 October ,2021
Investigators commissioned by the United Nations' top human rights body to examine possible abuses in Libya said Monday they have turned up evidence of possible war crimes and crimes against humanity in the restive North African country.
The first findings from a "fact-finding mission" commissioned by the Human Rights Council, which were released on Monday, chronicle accounts of crimes like murder, torture, enslavement, extrajudicial killings and rape. The findings could send a potent signal to key international and regional powers amid violence and mistreatment that has wracked Libya since the fall of former autocrat Moammar Gadhafi a decade ago. "The violence that has plagued Libya since 2011, and which has continued almost unabated since 2016, has enabled the commission of serious violations, abuses and crimes, including crimes against humanity and war crimes, against the most vulnerable," the three members who led the mission say in their report. The experts cite reports indicating that the Libyan Coast Guard – which has been trained and equipped by the European Union as part of efforts to stanch the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean – has mistreated migrants and handed some over to detention centers where torture and sexual violence are "prevalent."Amid concerns about foreign mercenaries operating in Libya, they experts say there are "reasonable grounds to believe" that personnel from a Russian private military company known as the Wagner Group, "may have committed the crime of murder" in connection with evidence that they had fired gunshots directly at people not taking direct part in the hostilities. The report also cites findings from "reliable organizations" that some 87,000 migrants have been intercepted by the Libyan Coast Guard since 2016, including about 7,000 "currently" in centers run by the Department for Combatting Illegal Migration. Such roundups have continued in recent days: an unprecedented crackdown in Libya has led to the detention of more than 5,000 people, including hundreds of children and women, and violence in associated raids has left at least one migrant dead, according to a U.N. tally. The fact-finding mission, which documents possible rights violations and abuses since 2016, adds to a litany of news reports, U.N. studies and warnings from advocacy groups about deadly violence, mistreatment of migrants, horrific conditions of detention and overall instability across Libya in recent years. "Mindful of the need to ensure justice for victims, the mission has identified individuals and groups (both Libyan and foreign actors) who may bear responsibility for the violations and abuses under investigation," the experts wrote. "In view of the complexity of the situation, additional time and resources are required to establish individual and state responsibility for all violations occurring since 2016." Under U.N. mediation, the country – now ruled by a transitional government after years of divisions – has made tenuous steps toward returning to stability, including through plans to hold national elections late this year.

Play director questioned in Lebanon, fueling freedom worries
Reuters/05 October ,2021
A theater director whose play was reported to the Lebanese authorities for allegedly criticizing the president was released without charge after questioning on Monday, his lawyer said, in a case that has fueled worry about freedom of expression in Lebanon. The director, Awad Awad, was also summoned on the grounds the play was staged without the permission of a security agency that must approve performances under the country’s censorship laws, the lawyer, Ayman Raad, said. Presented as part of a student workshop at Beirut’s Al Madina Theatre on Friday, the improvised performance dealt with the relationship between people and the authorities in oppressive regimes around the world, Awad said. He said the play did not mention anybody in Lebanon and if anyone felt targeted, that was their problem. Awad told Reuters after he was questioned on Monday he would secure the official permission needed to stage the performance. Reuters could not independently verify what the play was about. A statement issued about the incident by General Security, the agency which implements Lebanon’s censorship laws, did not provide details about its content. In the statement, General Security rejected what it described as attempts to portray the matter as a violation of freedoms, saying that it was applying the law and would continue to do so. General Security said that the play by Awad, a Palestinian, had been performed “without passing through the legal path” via the media office in the General Security directorate.
The Lebanese state says it respects freedom of expression, but human rights groups have expressed concern in recent years over the issue in a country where media have traditionally operated more openly than in many other Arab states. Social media activists, commentators and journalists were summoned by security agencies in dozens of cases between 2019 and 2020 for allegedly defaming President Michel Aoun and criticizing the army or parliamentarians, said Sahar Mandour, Lebanon researcher at Amnesty International.
While the number of such cases had dipped in the wake of last year’s catastrophic Beirut port explosion and as Lebanon descended deeper into an economic meltdown, she expressed worry that this could mark the start of a new wave. “We are very concerned with today’s summoning,” she said on Monday.“This is a scary warning that the iron fist is in the making again.”
Nidal Al Achkar, the founder and art director at Al Madina Theatre, said somebody in the audience had “told security that we are doing something against the government and president”. “There was no such thing,” she told Reuters, denying that Lebanese leaders had been attacked during the performance. “They are young people who are very angry, expressing themselves about the situation in Lebanon - lack of electricity lack of money, they have no work,” she said, describing the mood of the performers during the improvised performance. Still, the theatre management took the decision to cancel a second performance of the play on Saturday until the censors had approved it. “We considered it was a workshop ... in festivals we don’t give our text to the General Security,” she said. Under Lebanese law, the branch of General Security that deals with censorship reads the scripts of plays before deciding whether to give permission for them to be performed.

Can Mikati make a difference in Lebanon?
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/October 04/2021
One wonders if things could be any better for Lebanon in view of the complex regional situation and the absence of any international or Arab desire to help the crisis-gripped Arab country. Most important of all, there is no desire on the part of the Lebanese people to help themselves, before others can help them.
Najib Mikati’s government was formed so as to reflect an internal, regional and international reality that cannot be evaded. This reality consists in the complete intermeshing of the Lebanese state and its institutions, on the one hand, with Hezbollah, which is nothing but a brigade in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, on the other. This is what France has admitted and acquiesced to through its president, Emmanuel Macron, who played an important role in facilitating the formation of a Lebanese government after a 13-month wait.
The current Lebanese government has nothing to do with the original initiative of the French president, which he launched during his two consecutive visits to Beirut in August and September 2020, after the port blast.
In addition, there is no US interest in Lebanon under the Joe Biden administration. Washington proves every day that its foreign policy is of the laughable type. It is an administration that does not know what Iran is and what its proxies in the region are all about. It wants to limit Tehran’s ambitions, on the one hand and appease it on the other. The reality of the Biden administration was tested by two major events, the first was the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the other was its obstruction of the French submarine deal with Australia. The current US administration says one thing and does another. It wants to restore the American-European alliance but does not find enough time to reach an understanding with France before entering into an Anglo-Saxon alliance with Australia and Britain under the pretext of confronting China.
There is no American policy towards Iran nor towards Iraq and Syria. Washington does not even want to acknowledge the Houthi threat in Yemen and the presence of an entity revolving in the Iranian orbit in the Arabian Peninsula. Why, then, can we expect an American policy towards Lebanon, whose president, Michel Aoun, was the only candidate of Hezbollah for the presidency?
It is natural to leave Lebanon to its fate in the hands of a government that was the end product of “Hezbollah”, although Najib Mikati has sought and will continue to strive to save what can be saved in light of what he knows about the internal, Arab and international situation.
Little can be expected from the new Lebanese government which is preparing for general elections that cannot produce a better parliament than the current one, for at least two reasons. The first is the electoral law that Hezbollah fashioned to meet its conditions. As for the other , it lies in the inability of anyone to form a national resistance front that could peacefully stand in the face of illegal weapons in the hands of the sectarian militia called “Hezbollah.”
With or without elections, the majority in the parliament will remain an Iranian majority, as described once by Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Soleimani coined the phrase shortly after the May 2018 elections that produced the current parliament.
In the end, Lebanon is the country of its president, Michel Aoun and it is ruled by Hezbollah. This is the reality that no one is able to change. The assassination of the Lebanese thinker and political activist Lukman Slim on February 4, while visiting friends in southern Lebanon, was a test for the Joe Biden administration. The US administration did not lift a finger after the silencing of Slim, an expert close to American research institutions in Lebanon. This act whetted Hezbollah’s appetite for more control of the Lebanese decision making process in the absence of any objection, even verbal, to its actions.
France has completely acquiesced to the Iranian majority in the Lebanese parliament, especially after it became clear that talking about European or French sanctions against Lebanese politicians was just empty talk.
In the light of all these impediments in Lebanon and the presence of ministers in the government, who are among the worst sycophants of the Syrian regime, the question is: can Najib Mikati make a difference?
The remaining 13 months of Aoun’s term in office will be difficult months, especially since the only concern of the president is to ensure the succession of Aoun by Gibran Bassil as Hezbollah seeks to establish an irreversible reality on the ground. This will mean that Najib Mikati’s margin of manoeuvre will be quite tight to the point that no one knows if despite all his ingenuity, he can make a difference.

“It is known”
Ana Maria Luca/Now Lebanon/October 04/2021
I never expected politicians to actually tell Ronnie Chatah and his family straight to their faces there was a political pact to not ask questions. But they did.
It is not like nobody knew. Of course, no one really talked about it, no one addressed the murders officially. There was always some short statement with a promise of an investigation. The investigation would be opened and then, well, nothing.
Everyone knew there was no probe, no trial to be expected. It was known.
But it’s still enraging.
When I sat to start this newsletter, I was about to write that our colleague Ronnie Chatah lost his father on December 27, 2013.
I stopped because it would have been wrong. He didn’t lose his father. His father, Mohamad Chatah, then Finance Minister, was taken from him.
Mohamad Chatah was murdered.
Lokman Slim was murdered in a mafia-style execution, shot in the back, on the side of the road. In South Lebanon, where nothing moves without Hezbollah knowing.
Wissam Eid was murdered after he discovered who had killed Rafik Hariri.
Antoine Ghanem was murdered.
Pierre Gemayel was murdered.
Samir Kassir was murdered.
Gebran Tueini was murdered.
Many other people were murdered. Many, many others died just because they happened to be there.
Over 200 people were murdered when the ammonium nitrate exploded and the tragedy continues, with people succumbing to their wounds still.
A time to no longer be silent
I am still in awe at Ronnie’s courage to open his wounds. I am still in awe at all the effort he is making to bring together people who have seen their families killed and who were told for so many years to keep silent and go on with their lives as if nothing happened. To speak up and show them that they are not alone. At the cost of reliving the grief.
I am in awe at the efforts Monika Borgmann, this titan of a woman, is making. Channeling her grief after her husband Lokman Slim’s murder into keeping not only his cause alive, but also showing other victims’ families that they can and should speak up. That it’s too much.
I am also in awe of the woman crying in the picture above, taken by AFP’s Anwar Amro in front of the Justice Palace in Beirut on September 29, as activists and families of the victims of the port blast protested against the suspension of the investigation.
I am in awe at all of them pushing the boundaries of the perennial “it is known” served by politicians who don’t want to take any responsibility for their incompetence that led to many murders, and, eventually, to mass murder.
Remembering a dark list:
Suspended: Tarek al Bitar, the chief investigative judge who leads the probe, was suspended on September 27 after a former Interior Minister Nohad Al Mashnouk requested his removal citing lack of objectivity. It is the second time the investigation is suspended. In December 2020, the probe was suspended and at the beginning of 2021 former chief investigator Fadi Sawan was removed following the same procedure.
Families and human rights groups said was another blatant case of political obstruction.
Worried: Two US Senators, Jim Risch and Bob Menendez, ranking member and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, have released a statement in reaction to the suspension of Judge Tarek Bitar’s investigation saying they were “concerned”.
Another reminder: The UN Human Rights Council is still in session for another week and it would be a good thing if at least one state would submit officially a proposal to send in an international fact-finding mission to Lebanon. Sally Abou Al Joud asked experts about the developments on that front.
Another batch of sanctions
In cooperation with Qatar: The United States announced on Wednesday it was imposing sanctions on Hezbollah financiers in coordination with Qatar, a US ally that has kept cordial relations with Iran.
The Treasury Department announced that it was taking action against seven people including Qatari nationals Ali al-Banai and Ali Lari, who it said have secretly sent tens of millions of dollars to Lebanon, both through banks and by cash couriers.
Qatar’s relationship with the United States shot up in August as it became the transit point for more than half of the 100,000 people evacuated from Afghanistan as the Taliban took control.
Business as usual: Hezbollah said on Thursday that it shot down an Israeli drone and it was seen as a great victory on its television channel al Manar.
On August 12, the Israeli army said it had shot down the previous night a drone from Hezbollah that had crossed into Israeli airspace.
The IMF dream team
New committee in town: PM Najib Mikati announced on Thursday that a four-member committee was tasked to resume talks with the International Monetary Fund – Deputy Prime Minister Saade Chami, Finance Minister Youssef Khalil, Economy Minister Amin Salam and central bank governor Riad Salameh. They are to be backed by experts.
Another reminder: Here is what IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said during the August 4 donor conference hosted by France:
“We know the areas of action. We know what needs to be done:
First, tackle head-on the fundamental problem of weak governance: strengthen anti-corruption; improve the performance of state functions, in particular management of state-owned enterprises, and I would zero in on the energy sector as the most critical area for action; complete an audit of the central bank and the electricity provider.
Second, implement a fiscal strategy, combining deep debt restructuring and reforms to restore credibility of the country. Pay attention to social spending as part of this strategy.
Third, pursue a comprehensive restructuring of the financial sector, recognize upfront the losses at private banks and the central bank, but do so in a manner that protects smaller depositors.
Last but not least, we need a credible monetary and exchange rate system, supported by unification of exchange rates.”
The struggle for (electric) power
Turkey is out: Turkish company Karpowership supplying electricity to Lebanon from two power barges off the coast of Beirut since 2013 said Friday it has halted supplies after its contract with the Lebanese state electricity company Electricite du Liban expired.
It had said earlier that EDL owes Karpowership overdue payments of over $100 million. A bad deal: An investigation by Nada Maucourant Atallah in L’Orient Le Jour published in July revealed that the contract with Karpowership, which was supposed to be a temporary solution, has cost Lebanon a fortune – $750 million – after the contract kept going for eight years. A bit of math: Lebanon needs 3600 MW. Back in 2015, studies by the US Energy Information Administration suggested that natural gas–fired power plants were cheaper to build with overnight capital costs ranging from $676 to $2,095 per kW, depending on the technology. This means that Lebanon would have needed, with the most advanced technology, roughly $7.3 million to build natural-gas powerplants able to supply the entire country.
It also means that, with some competence, some political will and a bit of diplomacy with Jordan and Syria (just like it happened in the past month), Lebanon could have started importing natural gas a long time ago, when it had the money. It just didn’t have the political will.
Iran is (again) in: A second tanker arrived in Banyas on September 24. A third one is one the way.
Jordan working on it: PM Mikati greeted his Jordanian counterpart Bisher al-Khasawneh at the Grand Serail in Beirut on September 30, where they exchanged words of “brotherhood” and mutual support and gratitude and all.
More importantly, al-Khasawneh said there were talks to provide electricity to Lebanon as soon as possible and expedite the export of natural gas from Egypt. The maintenance of the grid is set to done by the end of October, according to Jordanian Energy Minister Hala al-Zawati.
There may be a catch in the deal, and many experts have already warned about this: the normalization of relations with Damascus, despite the war, the killings, the victims, the refugees. Iraqi oil: In July, Lebanon and Iraq signed a barter deal. Baghdad would provide Lebanon with a million tons of heavy fuel oil per year, while Lebanon would provide medical services. But Lebanon cannot use the crude, it doesn’t have a refinery. According to Megaphone, the devil is in the details: the Lebanese side refused a cheaper deal to refine the oil in Egypt and opted for a contract with a third party (company) that would take care of refining the oil. The bidding process is a little opaque, some government officials are talking about “commissions”.
Lebanon+
No criticism: The Cultural Bureau of the Lebanese government is back at its old job. The play called “Tanfise” was banned from Mishkal Festival on Saturday because it criticizes the government and the president. Therefore, the actors played on the street and it went viral. Lesson possibly learned: stop trying to censor art in the age of social media. It’s 2021. Nothing can be silenced anymore. The doctor-minister: When a minister tells journalists they should call him “doctor” because he has a PhD when he’s supposed to come up with coherent policies in a country that is falling apart is a gaffe that sticks to one’s career. It’s like banning journalists from the presidency because they don’t address the president with “His excellency”.
Moliere wrote a play once. It describes the “grand” situation.
Podcasts:
Sarde after dinner hosted on Sunday night Ivory Coast-born Lebanese artist Ivan Debs. The Beirut Banyan talked about the history of public transportation in Lebanon and how trams, trains and public buses vanished from the country with Mohamed al Chemaa, researcher at The Beirut Lab.
Agenda:
On Monday, UN’s Special Tribunal for Lebanon is hearing an appeal against the acquittal of the suspects in the Rafik Hariri assassination.
Also on Monday, US State Secretary Antony Bliken will be in Paris. After the Australian submarine issue inflamed transatlantic relations, Lebanon may not be very high on the agenda, but there is a chance the topic would show up in the conversation. On Tuesday morning, the professors of the Lebanese state University will hold a press conference to announce whether they will go on strike as they warned. On Wednesday, the Lebanese University is scheduled to get a new president. The University is not in very good financial shape and Amal and Hezbollah are reportedly vetting the candidates before the government is set to appoint the LU president.
Till next week, keep safe.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 04-05/2021
نيوزويك/هناك زعم بأن المعلومات الشخصية لبليون ونصف بليوم مستخدم فايسبوك معروضة للبيع
1.5 Billion Facebook Users' Personal Information Allegedly Posted for Sale
Thomas Kika/Newsweek/October 04/2021
https://www.newsweek.com/15-billion-facebook-users-personal-information-posted-sale-after-hack-1635439?utm_source=PushnamiMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=automatic&UTM=1633386870694&subscriberId=607d81b4e94838e5a17603fd
Personal information from roughly 1.5 billion worldwide Facebook users was allegedly put up for sale following a recent leak.
A member of a known forum for hackers claimed to be in possession of the information in late September and offered to sell it in chunks to others on the forum, according to a report from Privacy Affairs. One user claimed to have gotten a quote of $5,000 for the information of 1 million users.
The user allegedly in possession of the leaked information claimed that it included the following for each Facebook account: name, email address, location, gender, phone number and user ID.
Samples shared by the user appear to have been authentic, according to Privacy Affairs. The outlet also checked the information against previous leaks and found that alleged info was a legitimately new leak, not old data being resold. The hacker claimed to be in charge of a four-year-old data scraping operation with 18,000 clients.
However, several users on the forum reported that they had not received anything after sending money to the original poster. This could indicate that the alleged leak was, in fact, a scam, or that the alleged holder of the data was running late.
Newsweek has reached out to Facebook for a comment on this story and to possibly confirm the leak's veracity.
If the information was actually obtained via data scraper, then no actual accounts are likely to have been compromised yet. Accounts could still be accessed if the data was acquired by the right sort of cybercriminals. It is also possible that it could be acquired by marketing operations and used to push certain ads on affected users.
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Doctor Fighting Vaccine Misinformation With Ingredients List for Twinkies
A similar data leak occurred in the spring and affected roughly 533 million users from 106 countries. The information was found to be legitimate by outlets like Business Insider, who used Facebook's password reset feature to partially confirm the phone numbers associated with certain emails.
This latest alleged hack comes around the same time that Facebook and its subsidiary platforms, Instagram and WhatsApp, suffered a sustained outage. Users around the world began reporting their inability to access the services early on Monday. As of shortly before 4 p.m. ET, the sites remained inaccessible.
"We're aware that some people are having trouble accessing our apps and products," Facebook said on its official Twitter account. "We're working to get things back to normal as quickly as possible, and we apologize for any inconvenience."
Internet analyst Doug Madory said that Facebook's issues might have stemmed from Domain Name System route withdrawals, preventing browsers from properly translating web addresses into IP addresses.
Correction (10/4/2021, 7:30 p.m.): An earlier version of this story's headline referred to a hack, however, this has not been confirmed. It is currently believed the data was obtained by scraping publicly available information.

Iran Foresees Nuclear Talks Resuming by Early November
Agence France Presse/October 04/2021 |
Iran foresees nuclear talks with world powers resuming by early November, foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said Monday, without elaborating. "The government of (President) Ebrahim Raisi has been in power for less than 55 days... I don't think that the (return to talks) will take as much as 90 days," he said. The talks in Vienna have been stalled since June.

Saudi confirms first round of talks with new Iranian government
Reuters/October 04/2021 |
Saudi Arabia confirmed on Sunday it had held its first round of direct talks with Iran's new government last month, part of a process begun earlier this year to reduce tension between the Gulf's rival Sunni and Shi'ite Muslim powers.
The longtime foes who severed ties in 2016 began talks in April, at a time when Washington and Tehran were discussing reviving a nuclear pact that Riyadh and its allies had opposed. Three rounds of Saudi-Iranian talks were held in Iraq in the months before Iran's new hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi, took office in August. Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud said the latest round had taken place on Sept. 21. He did not give the location of the meeting. The date coincides with a speech by Raisi at the U.N. General Assembly in New York. "These discussions are still in the exploratory phase. We hope they will provide a basis to address unresolved issues between the two sides and we will strive and work to realise that," he told a joint news conference.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have backed opposing sides in regional conflicts and political disputes in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq for years, and Saudi Arabia has led an Arab coalition waging war against the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen since 2015. Riyadh and Tehran have both said they hope the talks can ease tensions, while playing down expectations of a major diplomatic breakthrough. Iran did not immediately comment on the Sept. 21 round of talks. Riyadh has said it would judge the government of Raisi by the reality on the ground. Former U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned the agreement under which Iran had accepted curbs to its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions. Tehran responded by violating some of its terms. Indirect talks involving the United States and Iran on reviving that pact were put on hold in June and have yet to resume under Raisi. Western powers have urged Iran to return to the negotiations. Prince Faisal was speaking during a visit to Riyadh by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who said he had briefed his partners on the prospects for restarting the nuclear talks. read more
*Reporting by Raya Jalabi in Riyadh and Aziz El Yaakoubi in Dubai; Writing by Ghaida Ghantous

Palestinian President Hosts Israeli Ministers in West Bank
Associated Press/05 October ,2021
The Palestinian president hosted two Israeli Cabinet ministers for a late-night meeting Sunday, in a new sign of slowly improving ties between the sides. Israeli Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz and Regional Cooperation Minister Esawi Freij were the second group of Cabinet members to meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas since the new Israeli government took office in June. Defense Minister Benny Gantz also met with Abbas at his West Bank headquarters in August. The new Israeli government is comprised of eight parties spanning the Israeli political spectrum, from far-right hardliners who oppose a Palestinian state to dovish parties that support a two-state solution. Horowitz and Freij were joined by other members of their Meretz party, the most dovish faction in the coalition. Horowitz leads the party. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett comes from a small, hardline religious party, and he has ruled out the establishment of a Palestinian state on his watch. But he has called for reducing frictions, primarily by taking steps to boost the Palestinian economy. According to the official Palestinian news agency Wafa, Abbas "stressed the importance of ending the Israeli occupation and achieving a just and comprehensive peace." Abbas' autonomy government seeks the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem — territories captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war. Horowitz posted a picture of himself and Abbas on Twitter. "We have a shared mission: to preserve the hope for peace, on the basis of a two-state solution," he said.

Over 550 Europe-Bound Migrants Intercepted off Libya
Associated Press/05 October ,2021
Libya's coast guard Sunday intercepted two boats carrying more than 550 Europe-bound migrants off the country's shore, the U.N. refugee agency said. It marked the latest sea interceptions amid a surge of crossings and attempted crossings from the North African nation to European shores in recent months. It took place two days after a massive crackdown on migrants in a western Libyan town that resulted in the roundup of at least 4,000 migrants. Libya has emerged as the dominant transit point for migrants fleeing war and poverty in Africa and the Middle East, hoping for a better life in Europe. The trend developed after the country was plunged into chaos following the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that ousted and killed longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi. Human traffickers have benefited from the chaos in the oil-rich nation and smuggled migrants through the country's lengthy border with six nations. They then pack desperate migrants into ill-equipped rubber boats in risky voyages through the perilous Central Mediterranean Sea route. The first wooden boat, with some 500 migrants on board, was disembarked early Sunday at an oil refinery point in the western town of Zawiya, a major launching point for migrants, according to the U.N. refugee agency, UNHCR. They include Sudanese, Somalis, Bengalis and Syrians, it said. Later in the day, the UNHCR said the coast guard returned at least 56 migrants, including three children, to Tripoli's naval port, after their rubber boat broke at sea. The migrants were likely taken to a detention center as Libyan authorities typically do with intercepted migrants. On Saturday, the Libyan coast guard intercepted around 90 migrants, including eight women and three children, and returned them to Tripoli, the U.N. agency said. The coast guard also retrieved the bodies of two migrants, while 40 others remained missing at sea, the agency said. There has been a spike in crossings and attempted crossings of the Mediterranean Sea with the goal of reaching European soil. So far this year some 44,000 people have reached Europe's shores by crossing the Central Mediterranean from Tunisia and Libya.
As of Sept. 25, more than 25,000 people had been intercepted by the EU-trained and equipped Libyan coast guard this year and returned to the war-torn country, according to the U.N. migration agency. Over 1,100 migrants were reported dead or presumed dead off Libya in the first nine months of 2021.

First Official EgyptAir Flight Lands at Israel Airport
Associated Press/05 October ,2021
Egypt's national carrier Sunday made its first official direct flight to Israel since the two countries signed an historic 1979 peace treaty as an EgyptAir jet landed at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport. The airline's affiliate, AirSinai, has for decades operated flights to Israel without the company logo, out of fear of public backlash. The national carrier will now run three weekly flights between Cairo and Tel Aviv with the EgyptAir markings. The Israeli Embassy in Cairo tweeted that direct flights are "an important and welcome sign of strengthening bilateral ties between the two countries, especially economic relations." Last week, Bahrain's GulfAir made its first direct flight to Israel, further cementing commercial ties established with the signing of the "Abraham Accords" between Israel and four Arab states last year. Sunday's flight came two weeks after Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett made the first public visit to Egypt by an Israeli leader in over a decade. He met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi in the Sinai resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh in a sign of warming ties between the two countries. In August, Israel removed a longstanding advisory for its citizens about travel to Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, a move seen as a gesture to its strategic partner.

US citizen blocked in Iran needs surgery within days: Family
AFP/04 October ,2021
A US citizen blocked from leaving Iran risks death unless he has surgery within days, his family said Monday, appealing for him to be permitted to leave.
An Iranian court early last year commuted the sentence of Baquer Namazi, a former UNICEF official, but his lawyers said authorities have refused to issue him an Iranian passport, which he needs to leave as Tehran does not recognize dual nationality. Namazi, 84, whose son remains imprisoned, has a blockage in 95-97 percent of one of the main arteries that supply blood to his brain and needs surgery in seven to 10 days, his family said. Breaking down with tears, another son, Babak Namazi, said the family was “devastated” and that the situation was “a type of torture I would not wish upon my worst enemy.”
“This is not and has never has been the ending my father deserves. My father is a selfless individual who spent his life in public service,” he told a virtual press conference. In a letter to the UN special rapporteur on the right to health, lawyers for the family said Baquer’s case was “dire and extremely urgent.”
“In his current state, Baquer is at extreme risk of having a stroke, which could easily prove fatal,” it said. Namazi can undergo the surgery in Iran but his lawyers said the environment was too stressful after four years in detention and that there was a high risk of COVID-19.
Jared Genser, an international counsel to the Namazis, said that Baquer Namazi was “a free man” and should be allowed to leave Iran. He said the family had made appeals directly to members of President Joe Biden’s administration. “The time for action is now. I call on President Biden to engage personally to make this happen,” Genser said. Baquer Namazi was taken into custody in February 2016 when he traveled to Tehran in hopes of assisting son Siamak Namazi, a businessman who had been detained. Siamak Namazi is still serving a 10-year sentence for alleged collaboration with a hostile government. His family strenuously denies the charges and says he was harshly interrogated over past fellowships with US institutions. The letter said that Siamak Namazi received the Chinese Sinopharm vaccine in August but remains in “overcrowded and unhygenic conditions” at the notorious Evin prison. The status of US citizens is a major point of contention between Washington and Tehran. The Biden administration has urged the release of all detained Americans as it looks to return to a 2015 nuclear accord with Tehran.

Iran’s Supreme leader Khamenei defends military drills near Azerbaijan border
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/04 October ,2021
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei defended Tehran’s military drills conducted near the border with Azerbaijan which Iranian officials linked to Baku’s ties with Israel. Khamenei didn’t specifically name a specific country but said: “The issues concerning Iran's northwestern neighbors should be resolved wisely by relying on nations, through the cooperation of the armies of neighboring countries and by avoiding the presence of any foreign military forces.” He added: “In issues concerning the northwest of Iran, the Iranian Armed Forces act with authority and wisdom. It's good for others to act wisely too and not permit the region to face problems.”He also said the presence of foreign forces in the Middle East were a “source of destruction” and urged neighboring countries to “stay independent” and “join forces.”Iran’s army began on Friday military exercises near its border with Azerbaijan amid Tehran’s skepticism of Baku’s ties with the West in general and Israel specifically. Artillery, drones and helicopters participated in Iran’s drills. “We do not tolerate the presence and activity against our national security of… Israel, next to our borders. And we will carry out any necessary action in this regard,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said. Azerbaijan and Israel have strengthened their military alliance in recent months, with Israeli-supplied high-tech drones helping Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region last year. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev expressed concern over Iran’s military drills near his country last week in an interview with Turkey’s Anadolu state news agency. He described Tehran’s decision as “very surprising” because there was no such military exercises in three decades. “Analyzing this at a certain point of time, we see that this has not happened before. Why now? Why exactly on our border?” Aliyev said. With The Associated Press

Bennett spokesman accuses Iran of planning attacks against Israelis living in Cyprus
Reuters/ 04 October ,2021
Israel accused Iran on Monday of orchestrating an attempted attack against Israelis in Cyprus after police on the island said an armed individual had been arrested. “This was a terrorist incident directed by Iran against Israeli businesspeople living in Cyprus,” Matan Sidi, spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, said in a statement. “A person has been arrested, in whose possession a pistol and cartridges were found.” Cypriot police chief Stelios Papatheodorou told reporters earlier on Monday. “It is a sensitive case, which is why a remand request was held behind closed doors," Papatheodorou added. In his statement, Sidi denied local media reports on Sunday that described the arrest as having thwarted a criminally-motivated assassination attempt against an Israeli magnate.

Jordan says ‘distorted’ claims in ‘Pandora Papers’ are security threat
AFP, Amman/04 October ,2021
Jordan’s royal court Monday rejected as “distorted” claims made in the “Pandora Papers” that King Abdullah II created a network of offshore companies to build a $100 million overseas property empire. It said that the reports “included inaccuracies and distorted and exaggerated the facts”, and that revealing the properties’ addresses was “a flagrant security breach and a threat to His Majesty’s and his family’s safety.” The statement also said that the king had “personally funded” the properties and all related expenses. The investigation by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), involving some 600 journalists from media worldwide, is based on the leak of some 11.9 million documents from 14 financial services companies. While not alleging criminal wrong doing by Abdullah II, the reports allege he created a network of offshore companies to quietly purchase luxury residences from Malibu and California to Washington and London. Jordan’s Royal Hashemite Court said in its statement that “it is no secret that His Majesty owns a number of apartments and residences in the US and the United Kingdom. This is not unusual nor improper.”The statement added, “His Majesty uses these properties during official visits and hosts officials and foreign dignitaries there. The King and his family members also stay in some of these properties during private visits.”The statement said the location of the properties was not publicized “out of security and privacy concerns, and not out of secrecy or an attempt to hide them, as these reports have claimed.”“As such, the act of revealing these addresses by some media outlets is a flagrant security breach and a threat to His Majesty’s and his family’s safety.”The statement continued, “Any allegations that link these private properties to public funds or assistance are baseless and deliberate attempts to distort facts.”The palace also stressed that “all public finances and international assistance are subject to professional audits, and their allocations are fully accounted for by the government and donor entities.”

Libya parliament adopts law on legislative elections
AFP/04 October ,2021
Libya’s parliament on Monday passed a law on legislative elections, a spokesman said, ahead of a planned national vote set for December 24 under a UN-led peace process. The legislature “passed a law on elections to the House of Representatives during Monday’s sitting,” Abdullah Bliheg wrote on Twitter, three weeks after its speaker Aguila Saleh passed a presidential elections law opponents said bypassed protocol. Libya, which has the most abundant oil reserves in Africa, has been trying to emerge from a decade of chaos since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s government in 2011.
Libya was gripped by violence and political turmoil in the aftermath of the NATO-backed uprising against Gaddafi. In recent years, the country has been split between two rival administrations backed by foreign powers and myriad militias.

Syria must admit chemical weapons inspectors: West
AFP/04 October ,2021
Western countries on Monday called on Syria to allow in chemical arms inspectors, saying Damascus continued to breach its obligations to the world’s toxic weapons watchdog. Britain, the United States and other allies also pushed Russia for clarity on last year’s poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, in which Western experts said the Soviet-designed nerve agent Novichok was used. Syria faces fresh pressure at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) after refusing a visa for a member of an inspection team that was meant to deploy to Damascus later this month.
“It is imperative that Syria issues visas... without obstruction or delay,” Britain’s ambassador Joanna Roper said at a meeting at The Hague of the OPCW’s executive council of member states. Roper also called on Syria to “explain” the fate of two chlorine cylinders identified as evidence in a chemical weapons attack on the town of Douma in 2018. Damascus recently told the OPCW the two cylinders had been destroyed in an unspecified attack on one of its own chemical weapons facilities in June this year. More than 40 people were killed in the Douma incident, prompting Western nations to unleash a barrage of missiles at three suspected chemical weapons facilities run by President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. OPCW director general Fernando Arias said the watchdog “noted with concern” the delays in discussions with Damascus. The regulator would not send the inspection team to Syria unless it got visas for all members, he said. Arias added that Syria’s declaration on its remaining chemical weapons “cannot be considered accurate and complete” due to what he called “gaps, inconsistencies and discrepancies that remain unresolved.”Damascus has continued to deny the use of chemical weapons and insists it has handed over its weapons stockpiles under a 2013 agreement, prompted by a suspected sarin gas attack that killed 1,400 in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta. Meanwhile London and Washington again called on Moscow for clarity following the poisoning of jailed Kremlin critic Navalny a year ago. Moscow has always denied involvement. “The Russian Federation should explain the use of a chemical weapon against Mr Navalny on its soil, declare its remaining chemical weapons... including Novichok agents,” US ambassador Joseph Manso said in a statement.

Algeria escalates row with Paris, bans French military over-flights
The Arab Weekly/October 04/2021
PARIS/ ALGIERS--Relations between Algeria and France have hit a new low, with Algiers announcing Sunday a ban on French military planes from using its airspace, which they cross to fly to the Sahel region where thousands of French troops are stationed. France’s jets regularly fly over Algeria to reach the Sahel region of western Africa, where French soldiers are taking part in Barkhane operation against extremist groups in West Africa. French army spokesman, Colonel Pascal Ianni said the decision had “slightly impacted” supply flights but “does not affect our operations” in the Sahel.
But the move heightened tensions that had already flared Saturday when the Algerian government recalled its ambassador Mohamed Antar-Daoud from Paris over what the presidency late Saturday said were “irresponsible” remarks and “inadmissible interference” by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Macron’s remarks reported by French daily Le Monde came during a meeting Thursday between Macron and descendents of Harkis, Algerians who fought on the side of France during the 1954-1962 war of independence. “The fact that Macron delivered his remarks before children of Harkis added insult to injury,” a North Africa analyst told The Arab Weekly. And he mocked the way Algerians consider France as the only colonial power to have ruled them, while forgetting Ottoman domination over North Africa between the 16th and 17th centuries. He reportedly criticised what he called the “official history” which Algeria had written for itself, saying it was “not based on truths” but “on a discourse of hatred towards France”. Macron was also very blunt about the situation of the current Algerian regime. He said the North African nation was ruled by a “political-military system”, Le Monde said. The French leader also irked Algiers by describing President Abdelmedjid Tebboune as being “trapped in a system which is very tough”. The comments amounted to “inadmissible interference” in Algeria’s affairs and were “an intolerable affront” to Algerians who died fighting French colonialism, the Algerian presidency said. “The crimes of colonial France in Algeria are innumerable and fit the strictest definitions of genocide,” its statement said. The Algerian government did not specify which Macron comment had prompted the recall of its ambassador, but it accused him of interfering in Algerian internal affairs. A source in the Algerian government said the comment about Algeria’s existence as a nation had caused particular anger. Macron was quoted questioning whether there had been an Algerian nation before French colonial rule. Algeria won its independence from France in 1962 after a bloody military struggle.
Electoral campaign
Algeria’s ruling elite since independence has been largely drawn from veterans of its war of liberation from France. “We understand Macron is on campaign and that he wants to get far-right support by all means, such as insulting Algeria’s history … This is unacceptable to us,” a former Algerian minister said. Frances holds a presidential election next April. According to opinion polls, Marcron with face off in the second round with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen but is expected to win. Le Pen is currently challenged in her own ranks by Eric Zemmour, an anti-immigration polemicist who is supported by about 15% of the French public, according to the polls. According to Le Monde, Macron said a French decision announced days ago to drastically slash the number of visas it grants to citizens of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia would have no impact on students or business figures. Paris said the decision had been made necessary by the three Maghreb countries’ failure to do enough to allow illegal or radicalised migrants in France to be repatriated. It is aimed, he said, at “annoying” officials for not being responsive to French demands. When a French court denies a person’s visa request, authorities must still secure a consular travel pass from his or her home country in order to forcibly expel them, a document that Paris says Algiers, Rabat and Tunis are largely refusing to provide. The three North African countries have disputed the French explanations and took issue with the unprecedented decision taken by Paris.
Simmering tensions
There were already simmering tensions between Paris and Algiers. A row erupted in February 2005 after the French parliament adopted a law recognising “the positive role of colonisation”. Although it was later abrogated, it led to the cancellation of a treaty of friendship between Algeria and France.
Tensions rose again in May 2020 after French public media broadcast a documentary about the Hirak pro-democracy protest movement which had forced Tebboune’s veteran predecessor Abdelaziz Bouteflika from power the previous year. At the time Algeria also recalled its ambassador for consultations. And in April this year, French Prime Minister Jean Castex scrapped a visit to Algiers after it had criticised the “small” size of his delegation. But before Macron’s latest comments relations between France and its former colony seemed to be calming down.
In November 2020, Macron had praised Tebboune’s governance in an interview with the pan-African weekly news magazine Jeune Afrique. But he sparked the fury of Algerian civil society and expatriates when he added that he would “do everything possible” to help Tebboune deal with the Hirak protest movement. Earlier that year, however, France took steps aimed at accommodating Algeria. In July 2020, Paris returned to Algeria the skulls of 24 resistance fighters who had been shot and decapitated in the early years of the French occupation. Previously, in March, Macron had admitted that French soldiers had murdered top Algerian lawyer Ali Boumendjel in 1957 and then covered up his death. Algeria media on Saturday also noted that Macron had declared Algeria’s colonisation a “crime against humanity” during his election campaign while visiting Algiers. In 2020, Algeria and France agreed to task experts to draft a report aimed at forging “reconciliation”.

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 04-05/2021
The Taliban Is Using the Doha Accord to Protect Al-Qaeda
Thomas Joscelyn/The Dispatch-FDD/October 04/2021 |
That's one of many problems with ‘over the horizon’ counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan
This week, both the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) and the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) held hearings on the debacle in Afghanistan. The main witnesses were the three American generals who oversaw the chaotic withdrawal of American forces at the very end. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, and CENTCOM Commander Gen. Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie were all called to testify before the committees. I, too, was honored to testify before SASC on Thursday. You can read my written testimony here, if interested, and also watch a video of the session.
There are many lines of questioning I could focus on in this Vital Interests newsletter, but I’ll stick to just one. Many of the representatives and senators were worried about America’s ability to conduct so-called “over the horizon” counterterrorism operations, which are principally missile strikes from outside the theater of operation. America no longer has a footprint inside Afghanistan, so any attempt to go after al-Qaeda or Islamic State (ISIS) figures will be from an “over the horizon” posture.
I agree with many of the concerns that were expressed. America’s ability to collect intelligence on he ground has been severely hampered, if not eliminated entirely. Quite frankly, it wasn’t that great to begin with, as al-Qaeda’s presence inside Afghanistan was consistently underestimated.
Some claim that the U.S. can go after terrorists in Afghanistan just as it does in places such as Somalia, Syria, and Yemen. But Afghanistan is different. Unlike those three countries, it is landlocked. There aren’t nearby waterways to operate in. And the U.S. still hasn’t secured basing rights in any neighboring countries. Some of Afghanistan’s neighbors, such as Iran, are hostile to any American presence.
Another country neighboring Afghanistan, Pakistan, hosted and sponsored the Taliban for the past 20 years despite being America’s putative ally. The Pakistanis may not even allow the U.S. to use its airspace in the future. Even if Pakistan does relent, the Pakistani military and intelligence services are duplicitous. There’s a reason President Obama didn’t warn the Pakistanis that the Navy SEALs were coming in May 2011, when they hunted down Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Obama administration was worried that the Pakistanis would tip off the al-Qaeda founder. According to bin Laden’s bodyguard, Nasser al-Bahri, the Pakistanis did just that in late August 1998, when they warned the al-Qaeda master that the U.S. was prepared to strike his camps in Afghanistan. Bin Laden lived to terrorize another day.
But there’s another problem with the over-the-horizon model that hasn’t received as much attention. Let me explain.
The three generals who testified this week all agreed that the bilateral withdrawal agreement between the Trump administration and the Taliban fatally undermined the government of Afghanistan. The generals came to this position only belatedly , however, as the U.S. military signed off on the whole phony peace process with the Taliban. From my perspective at the time, it was obvious that America’s negotiations with the Taliban were the beginning of the end for Kabul.
I don’t want to revisit all of that here, but I do want to isolate one additional problem with the Doha deal that the generals didn’t pick up on. The Taliban is using it to protect al-Qaeda. Here’s how.
Earlier this month, after Pentagon spokesman John Kirby refused to rule out airstrikes targeting Sirajuddin Haqqani and other members of the so-called Haqqani Network, the Taliban responded by arguing that such attacks would violate the Doha accord. On September 9, the Taliban released a statement titled, “Latest US position regarding blacklist is a violation of Doha Agreement.”
“Pentagon officials have remarked that some cabinet members of the Islamic Emirate or family members of [the] late Haqqani Sahib – may Allah be pleased with him – are on the US blacklists and still targets,” the statement’s opening line reads. “The Islamic Emirate considers this position a clear violation of the Doha Agreement which is neither in the interest of the United States nor Afghanistan.”
Haqqani Sahib is a reference to the late Jalaluddin Haqqani. He was the patriarch of the so-called Haqqani Network, which is an integral part of the Taliban. You can read my written testimony for a summary of the Haqqanis’ intimate, decades-long relationship with al-Qaeda. Jalaluddin protected and worked with Osama bin Laden. His son, Sirajuddin, remained one of al-Qaeda’s closest allies throughout the war in Afghanistan. He may even be a part of al-Qaeda’s own leadership. Either way, Sirajuddin is an al-Qaeda man. One of his lieutenants was even responsible for protecting Osama’s son, Hamza, who was killed a few years ago in a U.S. drone strike under murky circumstances.
There’s much more to the story, but the point is there’s no question the Haqqanis have been in bed with al-Qaeda since the 1980s. And now Sirajuddin Haqqani, who has been the Taliban’s deputy emir (or No. 2) since 2015, has also been named the interior minister of the Taliban’s regime. This gives Sirajuddin broad power to oversee the internal police state and security forces for the resurrected Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. In his new role, Sirajuddin also has the power to protect his blood brothers in al-Qaeda. Other members of the so-called Haqqani Network are playing prominent roles in the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate as well.
The Taliban argues that the Doha agreement protects Sirajuddin, as well as all of the other Haqqanis who work with al-Qaeda.
In its September 9 statement, the Taliban (correctly) emphasized that the Haqqanis do “not have a separate name or organizational setup.” This was a response to claims made by State Department spokesman Ned Price and the Pentagon’s Kirby, both of whom tried to create some distance between the Haqqanis and the Taliban in the public’s mind. Price went so far as to claim the Haqqani Network and the Taliban are “separate entities,” which is false.
Not only does the Taliban reject Price’s argument, it goes further, pointing out that the Haqqanis were represented in the Doha negotiations and are, therefore, protected by its provisions. The U.S. agreed to review the U.N. sanctions against Taliban leaders, with the goal of removing them, once “intra-Afghan negotiations” began. The Taliban overthrew the government of Afghanistan instead, but the Taliban still argues that the sanctions should be lifted, including those targeting Sirajuddin Haqqani. Remember: Sirajuddin is a wanted terrorist with a $10 million bounty on his head.
The Doha agreement includes this troublesome passage:
“The United States and its allies will refrain from the threat or the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Afghanistan or intervening in its domestic affairs.”
That passage could easily be read as a ban on any counterterrorism operations, over the horizon or otherwise. And this puts the Biden administration in a pickle. On the one hand, the administration says it wants to keep the terror threat in check with targeted airstrikes. On the other hand, the administration has acted as if the Doha agreement remains in effect.
But the Biden team can’t have it both ways, as the Taliban claims that same accord bans all American operations in Afghan airspace.
On September 29, the Taliban reiterated this argument in another statement titled, “About airspace of Afghanistan.” The Taliban claims that the U.S. continues to fly drones overhead, thereby “violating all international rights, law” and the U.S. “commitments to the Islamic Emirate in Doha, Qatar.”
“These violations must be rectified and prevented,” the Taliban argues, meaning the U.S. should no longer fly its drones in Afghan airspace.
During the hearings this week, Gen. Milley emphasized that the Taliban hasn’t severed its relationship with al-Qaeda. On that score, Milley is right. And this is another reason the Biden administration should declare the Doha deal null and void: the Taliban hasn’t lived up to a single counterterrorism provision within it, despite the previous administration’s claims.
The Trump team sold the Doha deal as a major counterterrorism success. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad repeatedly vouched for the Taliban’s counterterrorism assurances in the agreement. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed that the Taliban “would work alongside of us to destroy, deny resources to and have al-Qaida depart from that place.”
“They will be killing terrorists,” Trump said of the Taliban after the Doha deal was signed. “They will be killing some very bad people. They will keep that fight going.”
Instead, the Taliban is using the Doha accord to protect the terrorists. Al-Qaeda couldn’t have hoped for a better outcome.
*Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for FDD’s Long War Journal. Follow Tom on Twitter @thomasjoscelyn. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, non-partisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Biden Brags About Diplomacy. It’s All Spin.
Emanuele Ottolenghi/The Dispatch-FDD/October 04/2021
If an ally recalls its ambassador, it’s a sign of an epic blunder.
“Diplomacy is back,” President Biden triumphantly tweeted from the G7 summit back in June. The president has devoted a good deal of airtime since taking office to ennobling rhetoric about America returning to the world stage as a reliable multilateralist, a trusted ally, a responsible global player. Paris climate treaty rejoined. Ready to return to Iran’s nuclear deal. No more travel bans and caging of immigrants. America is back. Diplomacy is back.
It’s all spin. French President Emmanuel Macron recalled his U.S. ambassador for consultations, over what Paris considers a stab in the back from Washington. (It took a fence-mending call from President Biden before Macron agreed to return his ambassador to Washington.) The casus belli is Australia’s decision to scuttle a submarine deal worth billions to France in favor of a partnership with Washington and London instead. The French-Australian deal for diesel submarines was beset with rising costs and delays—a possible reason for Australia’s about-face. The new Australian-U.S.-British partnership will deliver nuclear submarines, albeit with considerable delay over the French deal, also leaving Australia—a country without a nuclear industry—more dependent on its foreign partners than in the canceled deal. France may be hyperventilating—this is the country that lamented America’s hyperpower not so long ago—but wasn’t Biden’s team of grown-ups supposed to know how to handle imperfect allies with savoir-faire? Weren’t they supposed to restore confidence among alienated allies by avoiding precisely the kind of crisis they now have at their doorstep?
Why so much fury over an arms deal? Because allies do not blindside allies.
Recalling ambassadors is not trivial. In fact, in the more than 200 years of French-U.S. bilateral relations, it is unprecedented. It is such a big deal that French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that “This brutal, unilateral, and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of what Mr. Trump used to do.”
It’s clearly worse: France, after all, left its ambassador in Washington all four years of the Trump presidency.
Even when the mercurial former president took to Twitter to deride France, the French ambassador stayed in Washington. The French did not recall their ambassador when Trump went beyond juvenile twitter taunts and took strategic decisions that clearly ran against what Paris held dear, including walking away from the Iran nuclear deal, leaving the Paris climate accords, supporting Brexit, or moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. Each time, the French criticized and regretted Trump’s policy. Their ambassador stayed put.
Nor did the French recall their ambassador when Barack Obama and George W. Bush antagonized Paris. Not in the summer of 2013, when Obama set a red line on Syria’s use of chemical weapons and then, when France was ready to join the U.S. in a punitive strike, changed his mind. Not in response to the 2003 Iraq war—which the French bitterly and very openly opposed. Even during the Cold War bilateral flare-ups did not trigger such an escalation. The French did not recall their ambassador during the Suez Crisis in 1956, when Washington aligned itself with the Soviet Union[!] against the Anglo-French intervention in Egypt. It never happened. Until Biden.
Defending the U.S. volte-face against France on the merits of the deal misses the point: There are ways to soothe angry allies over divergent interests. If they recall their ambassador, that is a sign of a diplomatic blunder of epic proportions.
And blunders are piling up. Afghanistan aside, the Biden administration dragged its feet for months on COVID-19 travel restrictions against European citizens, under spurious pretexts, especially as immunization percentages in Europe outpaced America’s and the anti-vax craze made the U.S. a higher risk location than any country in Europe. The European Union opened its borders to vaccinated Americans over the summer. Biden failed to reciprocate until now—agreeing to open to Europeans from November onward. Would Trump have kept borders closed, given Europe’s immunization rates last June? Moot point. Biden did.
And speaking of Trump and Biden, the Biden administration virtue signaled that it would treat immigrants compassionately, more so than under former President Trump. Twitter compassion is one thing. But he’s defended his continuation of Trump’s pandemic-inspired Title 42 policy to expel most immigrants trying to enter the U.S. and has, nine months into his policy, expelled more people than Trump did after implementing it in March 2020. The problem has been compounded by Haitians streaming into the U.S. to escape poverty, political turmoil, and a major earthquake. What would Trump do? He mocked Haiti and in 2018 sought to end the Temporary Protective Status for Haitian refugees who had come to the U.S. after the 2010 earthquake. It was not a Boy Scout’s moment, but Biden has outdone him: expelling migrants as they arrive. Speak like a Squad member, act like a Proud Boy.
Trump was no multilateralist. He was brash, rude, bombastic, and did not care much about allies and alliances, if America’s interest, as he saw it, diverged. To have the French almost miss him speaks volumes of the diplomatic blunder the Biden presidency is becoming.
*Emanuele Ottolenghi is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a non-partisan research institute in Washington D.C. Follow him on Twitter @eottolenghi.

Islamist Terrorism Flourishing Under the Taliban
Con Coughlin/ Gatestone Institute/October 04/021
The most worrying concerns, though, about the Taliban's ability to rein in the activities of Islamist terror groups stem from the composition of the new Afghan government which, far from reflecting the Taliban's claim that it is pursuing a "moderate" agenda, is packed with hardliners and includes no women, minorities or opposition members.
In particular, the appointment of Sirajuddin Haqqani, a prominent member of the infamous Haqqani network who is on the FBI's most wanted list and is a designated global terrorist, completely undermines the Taliban's claim that it wants to curb the activities of Islamist terrorists.
More recently the group has been building ties with ISIS-K. As Sajjan Gohel, international security director at the Asia-Pacific Foundation, wrote in a recent article for Foreign Policy magazine, "There has, in fact, been a tactical and strategic convergence between the Islamic State-Khorasan and the Haqqanis, if not the entirety of the Taliban."
At the time of the Taliban takeover, Pakistan's pro-Islamist Prime Minister Imran Khan rejoiced at America's humiliating defeat in Afghanistan. Now he finds himself facing a battle for survival in Islamabad as militant supporters of the so-called "Pakistani Taliban" seek to emulate the achievements of their Afghan neighbours by overthrowing the Pakistani government.
As seen this morning with the bombing of the Eidgah Mosque in Kabul, leaving a reported 8 people killed and 20 wounded, the prospects of Afghanistan once more becoming a safe haven that can be used by Islamist terrorist groups to launch deadly attacks against the West have risen dramatically in the wake of US President Joe Biden's disastrous decision to withdraw American forces from the country. Pictured: Taliban gunmen stand outside the entrance of a hospital in Kabul, Afghanistan on October 3, 2021. (Photo by Hoshang Hashimi / AFP)
As seen this morning with the bombing of the Eidgah Mosque in Kabul, leaving a reported 8 people killed and 20 wounded, the prospects of Afghanistan once more becoming a safe haven that can be used by Islamist terrorist groups to launch deadly attacks against the West have risen dramatically in the wake of US President Joe Biden's disastrous decision to withdraw American forces from the country. Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack on Saturday through its Nasheer news agency on Telegram.
Part of Mr Biden's justification for ending America's 20-year-old involvement in the conflict was that the Taliban had learnt the lessons of its past involvement with Islamist terror groups like al-Qaeda, and would therefore be unlikely to allow them to operate freely in territory under Taliban control.
Indeed, one of the key requirements of the controversial Doha peace deal the Taliban signed with the previous Trump administration was for the Taliban to curb the activities of Islamist militants. The Taliban's leadership has said it wants to proceed with its policy of confining foreign jihadists in "reserves" where their movements can be controlled, and their weapons confiscated.
The Biden administration has argued that the Taliban is keen not to repeat its past mistakes, where its close association with al-Qaeda at the time of the September 11 attacks in 2001 resulted in the overthrow of the previous Taliban administration following the US-led invasion of Afghanistan.
Yet, a month after the Taliban seized control of the country, all the indications were that jihadist terror groups have been growing in strength in Afghanistan, with all the implications this deeply concerning trend will have both for Afghanistan and the wider world.
There is deep concern within Western intelligence circles that a consolidation of power is already taking place in Afghanistan among a number of Islamist terror groups that are taking full advantage of the Taliban takeover.
Islamist groups such as ISIS, which first began operations in Afghanistan after the creation of its so-called caliphate in Syria and Iraq in 2015, have benefitted from the disillusion of some former fighters with the Taliban who, concerned with the group's attempts to position itself as a "moderate" regime, have defected to more hardline Islamist groups.
One of the more ludicrous examples of the Taliban's attempts to portray themselves as a moderate movement were their attempts to have their newly-created Islamic Emirate recognised by the United Nations, replacing the existing Afghan representation.
The Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), as the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan is known, has seized on the Taliban's craving for international recognition to denounce them as being too moderate, with the result that disaffected former Taliban fighters have been recruited to its ranks.
Last month's suicide bomb attack on the outskirts of Kabul airport was a devastating indication of the group's growing strength, which has seen it launch 77 attacks in the first four months of 2021 compared with 21 during the same period last year.
The growth in ISIS-K's strength in Afghanistan is also reflected in the creation of a specialist unit called Al-Sadiq, which the movement uses to coordinated its activities with other Islamist terror groups in South Asia.
The most worrying concerns, though, about the Taliban's ability to rein in the activities of Islamist terror groups stem from the composition of the new Afghan government which, far from reflecting the Taliban's claim that it is pursuing a "moderate" agenda, is packed with hardliners and includes no women, minorities or opposition members.
In particular, the appointment of Sirajuddin Haqqani, a prominent member of the infamous Haqqani network who is on the FBI's most wanted list and is a designated global terrorist, completely undermines the Taliban's claim that it wants to curb the activities of Islamist terrorists.
The Haqqani network is known to have links with Islamist terror groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS-K, and with one of its most prominent leaders occupying a central position in the new Afghan regime, the Taliban's ability to control their activities would be limited.
As the leader of the Haqqani network, Afghanistan's new interior minister has a reputation for using violent tactics, including using death squads for executions and releasing videos of mass beheadings. High-profile attacks carried out by his network include the suicide bombing at Kabul's Serena Hotel in 2008 and a 20-hour siege of the U.S. embassy compound in Kabul in 2011 that left 16 Afghans dead.
More recently the group has been building ties with ISIS-K. As Sajjan Gohel, international security director at the Asia-Pacific Foundation, wrote in a recent article for Foreign Policy magazine, "There has, in fact, been a tactical and strategic convergence between the Islamic State-Khorasan and the Haqqanis, if not the entirety of the Taliban."
There have also been reports of a number of al-Qaeda terrorists moving from their hideouts in Pakistan to Afghan territory controlled by the Haqqani network.
Then there is the knock-on effect the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has had on neighbouring Pakistan, where terrorist attacks have increased to their highest level in more than four years in recent weeks, according to data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal.
At the time of the Taliban takeover, Pakistan's pro-Islamist Prime Minister Imran Khan rejoiced at America's humiliating defeat in Afghanistan. Now he finds himself facing a battle for survival in Islamabad as militant supporters of the so-called "Pakistani Taliban" seek to emulate the achievements of their Afghan neighbours by overthrowing the Pakistani government.
There can be little doubt that the rapidly deteriorating security situation in both Afghanistan and Pakistan is the direct result of Mr Biden's idiotic decision to end American involvement in the region, one that is likely to have profound implications for Western security for many years to come.
Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Biden Ignores Palestinian Support For Terrorists
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/October 04/2021
The Biden administration's talk about achieving a "two-state solution" does not seem to impress many Palestinians. They believe, according to a recent public opinion poll, that this solution is no longer practical or feasible. These Palestinians, the poll found, prefer to wage an "armed struggle" against Israel.
With such views, it is safe to assume that the Palestinian state the Biden administration is hoping to establish alongside Israel will be controlled by Iranian-backed terrorists such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.....
The findings of that poll confirmed that a majority of Palestinians continue to see Hamas and other terrorists as their heroes and role models. The results also confirmed that a majority of Palestinians continue to believe that violence and terrorism are the best and only way to deal with Israel.
Their demand reveals that an overwhelming majority of Palestinians have no confidence in Abbas and are likely to reject any peace agreement he signs with Israel. First, anyone who signs a peace deal with Israel will be regarded as a traitor and rewarded the same ill-starred way as Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who signed a peace treaty with Israel and was assassinated. It is a consequence with which Abbas is acquainted.
Those who continue to talk about a "two-state solution" are not only deluding themselves, but also endangering the security of the Middle East by seeking to establish yet another terrorist state, especially so soon after the debacle of the U.S. surrender to the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Here is some well-intentioned advice for Biden and other world leaders: before you link the idea of peace and security to the idea of a "two-state solution," try believing the Palestinians when they say that the prefer "armed struggle." Try believing the Palestinians when they say that they would vote for any leader who supports violence and terrorism against Israel. Try believing, when the Palestinians say they reject peace with Israel, that they actually mean what they say.
The Biden administration's talk about achieving a "two-state solution" does not seem to impress many Palestinians. These Palestinians, a recent public opinion poll found, prefer to wage an "armed struggle" against Israel. With such views, it is safe to assume that the Palestinian state the Biden administration is hoping to establish alongside Israel will be controlled by Iranian-backed terrorists such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Pictured: Then US Vice President Joe Biden meets with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah on March 9, 2016.
Despite the decision by the Biden administration to resume financial aid to the Palestinians and work toward reviving the "peace process" with Israel, most Palestinians continue to support Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that does not recognize Israel's right to exist.
The Biden administration's talk about achieving a "two-state solution" does not seem to impress many Palestinians. They believe, according to a recent public opinion poll, that this solution is no longer practical or feasible. These Palestinians, the poll found, prefer to wage an "armed struggle" against Israel.
In his recent speech before the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly, U.S. President Joe Biden, expressing his administration's policy toward the Israeli-Arab conflict, said:
"The commitment of the United States to Israel's security is without question. And a support – our support for an independent, Jewish state is unequivocal. But I continue to believe that a two-state solution is the best way to ensure Israel – Israel's future as a Jewish, democratic state living in peace alongside a viable, sovereign, and democratic Palestinian state."
Ironically, on the same day Biden that delivered his speech at the UN General Assembly, another public opinion poll published by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research on September 21 again showed that many Westerners are clueless about the real attitudes of the Palestinian public.
The findings of that poll confirmed that a majority of Palestinians continue to see Hamas and other terrorists as their heroes and role models. The results also confirmed that a majority of Palestinians continue to believe that violence and terrorism are the best and only way to deal with Israel.
With such views, it is safe to assume that the Palestinian state the Biden administration is hoping to establish alongside Israel will be controlled by Iranian-backed terrorists such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, whose declared goal is to replace Israel with an Islamist state after killing or expelling as many Jews as possible from their homeland.
The results of the poll lead to the unmistakable conclusion that the Palestinians are telling Biden that his proposed "two-state solution" is far from the best way to ensure peace and security in the Middle East.
The Palestinians are saying that the "two-state solution" is the best way to facilitate and expedite their mission of destroying Israel. Unfortunately, at least for the near future, that would most likely play out as a non-solution that could end up destabilizing the area and drawing in the United States.
The Palestinians, through their views, are making it clear that a Palestinian state in any part of the West Bank and Gaza Strip will be used as a launching pad to "liberate" all of the land, from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea.
What is important to remember is that a semi-independent Palestinian state already exists in the Gaza Strip, from where Israel withdrew completely in 2005. This autonomous state, controlled by Hamas and other jihadi groups since 2007, has already been used as a launching pad this year to fire tens of thousands of rockets and incendiary balloons into Israel.
If the Israeli army and Jewish settlers are no longer inside the Gaza Strip, why are the Palestinians continuing to fire rockets and other projectiles into Israel? The answer is simple: the Palestinians want to drive the Jews not only out of the Gaza Strip, but out of all of Israel.
The most important findings of the poll include a dramatic decline in support for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and a rise in the popularity of Hamas, as well as increased support for terrorism against Israel.
This discovery does not surprise those who are familiar with the bellicose anti-Israel rhetoric that is sounded day in and day out by Palestinian leaders, media outlets, mosque preachers and political activists.
While the Biden administration is talking to Abbas and his team, nearly 80% of the Palestinian public, according to the poll, are demanding the resignation of their president.
Their demand reveals that an overwhelming majority of Palestinians have no confidence in Abbas and are likely to reject any peace agreement he signs with Israel. First, anyone who signs a peace deal with Israel will be regarded as a traitor and rewarded the same ill-starred way as Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who signed a peace treaty with Israel and was assassinated. It is a consequence with which Abbas is acquainted:
"Leaving the circle of struggle against Zionism is high treason, and cursed be he who perpetrates such an act." (Hamas Charter, Article 32)
They also know that Abbas, now in the 17th year of his four-year term, has no mandate to sign anything with anyone. The results of the poll show that most Palestinians see Abbas as an illegitimate leader who no longer represents the majority of his people.
The Palestinians, in short, are telling the Biden administration and the rest of the world that it is a waste of time to rely on Abbas as a leader to market any peace agreement with Israel to his people. Another crucial finding that the Biden administration and other international parties need to take into consideration: Hamas and the opponents of Abbas are set to win in new Palestinian presidential and parliamentary elections.
This disclosure also does not surprise anyone familiar with the Palestinian arena and is apparently the reason Abbas decided earlier this year to call off the parliamentary and presidential elections that had been scheduled to take place on May 22 and July 30. Abbas does not need a poll to tell him that his rivals in Hamas and other Palestinian groups would defeat him at the voting booth by a landslide.
Abbas and his ruling Fatah faction have yet to recover from the stunning defeat they suffered at the hands of Hamas in the 2006 Palestinian parliamentary election. Less than a year later, Hamas threw members of Abbas's Palestinian Authority off the highest floors of tall buildings in Gaza, thereby driving Abbas and the PA back the West Bank. Since then, Abbas has not only been unable to visit his home in Gaza, but in 2014, Hamas attempted a full-blown coup d'état against him.
The results concerning new elections are the best evidence that a future Palestinian state will be controlled by a terrorist group whose charter openly calls on all Arabs and Muslims to create an Islamic state:
"The Islamic Resistance Movement is a distinguished Palestinian movement, whose allegiance is to Allah, and whose way of life is Islam. It strives to raise the banner of Allah over every inch of Palestine." (Article 6)
The Hamas Charter also pledges to wage jihad (holy war) against Israel:
"The day the enemies usurp part of Moslem land, Jihad becomes the individual duty of every Moslem. In the face of the Jews' usurpation, it is compulsory that the banner of Jihad be raised." (Article 15)
"Ranks will close, fighters joining other fighters, and masses everywhere in the Islamic world will come forward in response to the call of duty, loudly proclaiming: 'Hail to Jihad!'. This cry will reach the heavens and will go on being resounded until liberation is achieved, the invaders vanquished and Allah's victory comes about." (Article 33)
And to reject any negotiated settlement:
"[Peace] initiatives, and so-called peaceful solutions and international conferences are in contradiction to the principles of the Islamic Resistance Movement... Those conferences are no more than a means to appoint the infidels as arbitrators in the lands of Islam... There is no solution for the Palestinian problem except by Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are but a waste of time, an exercise in futility." (Article 13)
If presidential elections were held today, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh would receive 56% of the vote, as opposed to 34% for Mahmoud Abbas.
If Abbas did not run in the elections, Palestinians would vote for Marwan Barghouti, a terrorist leader who is serving five life terms in Israeli prison for his role in a series of terror attacks against Israel, in which at least five people were murdered nearly two decades ago.
Haniyeh and Barghouti are popular among Palestinians because of their involvement in terrorism against Israel. Palestinians are apparently dissatisfied with Abbas because they believe that he is not doing enough to provoke terrorist attacks against Israel.
Also ironically -- the Middle East can provide quite a bit of it -- while Biden was talking at the UN General Assembly about his vision for a "two-state solution," the poll (which was published on the same day of the speech) found that 62% of the Palestinian public are opposed to the concept of the "two-state solution."The poll also found that 39% of the Palestinians prefer waging an "armed struggle" against Israel. Additionally, a large majority of 61% opposes an unconditional resumption of the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.
In perhaps the greatest irony, the Biden administration's decision to resume financial aid to the Palestinians and renew US relations with Abbas and the Palestinian leadership does not seem to enrapture Palestinians. A sizeable majority say they do not want to see Palestinian leaders deal with the US president and his team at all. According to the poll, 58% of the Palestinians are totally opposed to a return to dialogue with the US administration under President Biden. Moreover, 49% do not believe that the election of Biden and the resumption of American aid to the Palestinian Authority open the door for a return to Israeli-Palestinian negotiations within the framework of the "two-state solution."If anything, the results of the poll again highlight the wide gap between the perceptions and wishes of the Biden administration and the international community, and the reality of the Palestinian situation.
Those who continue to talk about a "two-state solution" are not only deluding themselves, but also endangering the security of the Middle East by seeking to establish yet another terrorist state, especially so soon after the debacle of the U.S. surrender to the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Here is some well-intentioned advice for Biden and other world leaders: before you link the idea of peace and security to the idea of a "two-state solution," try believing the Palestinians when they say that the prefer "armed struggle." Try believing the Palestinians when they say that they would vote for any leader who supports violence and terrorism against Israel. Try believing, when the Palestinians say they reject peace with Israel, that they actually mean what they say.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Cultural Blind Spot: Why America Failed to ‘Win Hearts and Minds’ in Afghanistan
Raymond Ibrahim/October 04/2021
In many ways, arrogant leftist thinking—indeed, the leftist paradigm in its entirety—led to the disaster that is Afghanistan.
Many, especially those of Afghan background, have made this clear in the aftermath of America’s withdrawal. Consider the words of Baktash Ahadi, an Afghan-American who served as an interpreter for the U.S. military for years:
How could Afghanistan have collapsed so quickly? As a former combat interpreter who served alongside U.S. and Afghan Special Operations forces, I can tell you part of the answer — one that’s been missing from the conversation: culture…. When comparing the Taliban with the United States and its Western allies, the vast majority of Afghans have always viewed the Taliban as the lesser of two evils. To many Americans, that may seem an outlandish claim. But the Americans also went straight to building roads, schools and governing institutions — in an effort to ‘win hearts and minds’ — without first figuring out what values animate those hearts and what ideas fill those minds. We thus wound up acting in ways that would ultimately alienate everyday Afghans.
In other words, because they were oblivious to the importance of culture and convinced that only the material matters—roads, schools, buildings, etc.—American leadership in Afghanistan failed.
Unfortunately, this failure far transcends the few; to increasing numbers of Westerners in general, the word “culture” often conjures at most physical, surface differences—“exotic” food or dress—nothing essential.
In reality, cultures consist of entire and distinct worldviews with their own unique sets of rights and wrongs, often rooted in a religion or philosophy. Cultures bring much more to your town than, say, the convenience of having Indian cuisine down the street. As European historian Hilaire Belloc once explained:
Cultures spring from religions; ultimately the vital force which maintains any culture is its philosophy, its attitude toward the universe; the decay of a religion involves the decay of the culture corresponding to it—we see that most clearly in the breakdown of Christendom today.
Looked at another way, all values prized by the modern West—religious freedom, tolerance, gender equality, monogamy—did not develop in a vacuum but are rather inextricably rooted to Judeo-Christian principles that, over the course of some two millennia, have had a profound influence on Western epistemology, society, and, of course, culture. It’s not for nothing, nor is it a “coincidence” of history, that these values were born and nourished in Western—not Islamic, Buddhist, Hindu, Confucian, or pagan—nations.
Even so, and due to relativistic type thinking, most Western people assume that all of the aforementioned values are somehow “innate” to all peoples; that, given the proper material circumstances—new roads, schools, health care, prosperity, etc.—all peoples will become just like them, secular materialists (irrespective of their Asian or African cultures/religions, which, again, are seen as limited to food, dress, rituals, ceremonies, and the like).
The great irony is that such thinking is extremely arrogant and ethnocentric—two things that leftists always warn against yet are most guilty of doing. While the conservative acknowledges, for example, that Islam has its own principles, the liberal ignores these, believing instead that Muslims “are just like us.” This view, which arrogantly brushes aside Islam’s role in the Muslim’s life, doesn’t seem ethnocentric because the “us” is not believed to be particular (Western or Christian) but universal.
In short, growing numbers of Western people see themselves as the culmination of human history—“progressive” thinkers who have left all cultural and religious baggage behind—and are convinced that all the peoples of the world are destined to follow their lead and develop like the West, which is no longer seen as a distinct culture but rather the end point of all cultures (given the proper, often material, circumstances).
Thus, and returning to the question of Afghanistan, Western leadership saw its tribal Muslims as embryonic Westerners: whatever their religion or culture dictated, surely these were skin deep; given the proper circumstances, surely the Afghan people’s nascent or innate appreciation for a division between religion and state, feminism, pluralism, and tolerance would eventually take root and blossom.
Put differently, Afghanis (and later Iraqis) were made “in our image” (except, of course, we forget the spiritual and intellectual—in a word, cultural—roots of “our image”).
Always overlooked in this arrogant calculus is that Muslims have their own unique and ancient worldview and set of principles—their own culture—which in turn prompt behavior that is deemed “radical” by Western (falsely assumed to be “universal”) standards. It was this blind spot to culture that proved disastrous in Afghanistan and, no doubt, will continue to prove disastrous for all such future ventures that ignore the metaphysical and focus only on the physical.

Who Are the Advisors Who Circle a Confused President?
Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/October 04/2021
Published reports reveal that John Podesta, Bill Clinton's former chief of staff and senior counselor to Barack Obama, has sent a memo to every Democratic Congressman reminding them the party "must unite and act together" to pass Biden's "infrastructure" agenda.
Podesta, according to an email released from Wikileaks, was also previously approached by an advisor to Dominion Voting Systems who was "offering 'anything' that might defeat Trump." What was the advisor to the voting machines company offering?
Podesta's older brother, Tony, was a long time mega Democratic lobbyist and fund raiser. His lobbying career has been resurrected with a New York Times report that the embattled Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei has hired Podesta. Huawei was identified as a national security threat by the Trump administration and faces federal charges of racketeering and conspiring to steal trade secrets from American companies. One supposes that Podesta's retainer is in dollars and requires him to promote the interests of a company alleged to be an extension of the Chinese government.
Given Biden's curious response to ABC News, one could legitimately ask, just whose national policy are we actually pursuing? The president's or his advisors?
To those currently anonymous individuals seeking to guide President Joe Biden into advancing their own agenda, history has a very important message for you. Things do not always go as planned. History is filled with instances of counselors close to the throne who ran afoul of the "prince" with disastrous results, yet this may be one instance where a distracted and confused leader is the one who is victimized, leaving our nation at risk.
Henry the VIII had Thomas Cromwell as his Privy Counselor with Cromwell playing a vital role in the King's personal, domestic, and international relationships.
Napoleon depended on Talleyrand as his Grand Chamberlain, a master diplomat who managed to serve King Louis XVI, the leaders of the French Revolution, and then Napoleon.
The last Tsar of Russia depended on Grigori Rasputin, a self-declared mystic and holy man who ministered to the ailing son of Nicolas II while providing the "Supreme Ruler of the Russians" with advice and counsel.
And just who counsels President Joseph Biden?
The official White House list offers titles and names including chief of staff Ron Klain, deputy chief of staff Jen O'Malley Dillon, senior advisor Mike Donilon, and National Economic Council Director Brian Deese but who are the Washington personalities and power players behind the scenes who have the President's ear, and by extension, play an enormous role in shaping the fate of our nation?
To those currently anonymous individuals seeking to guide the President into advancing their own agenda, history has a very important message for you. Things do not always go as planned.
Henry the VIII had that most trusted advisor, Cromwell, executed at the block for what the King decided was treason.
Napoleon saw Talleyrand sell secrets to France's enemies, with Napoleon telling his minister he could shatter him like glass but did not want to waste his time.
Rasputin was assassinated by members of the Tsar's court who apparently felt that his disastrous advice to Nicholas II during the early years of World War I was leading the nation to destruction. The Bolsheviks must have smiled over that premonition.
There are those now in Washington who are offering counsel to anyone who will listen. Published reports reveal that John Podesta, Bill Clinton's former chief-of-staff and senior counselor to Barack Obama, has sent a memo to every Democratic Congressman reminding them the party "must unite and act together" to pass Biden's "infrastructure" agenda, which allocates "under 6%" to roads and bridges. John Podesta, according to an email released from Wikileaks, had previously been approached by an advisor to Dominion Voting Systems "offering 'anything' that might defeat Trump." What was this advisor to a voting machine company offering?
The message was not surprising, but given the role of those in Congress who are now advocating socialist economic policies -- such as public or collective ownership of the means of production, central planning of the economy, emphasis on equality and economic security and a goal of reducing class distinctions -- more government control and seeking to dictate White House policy, that might be a tall order even for Talleyrand.
Podesta's older brother, Tony, was a long time mega Democratic lobbyist and fundraiser. His lobbying career has been resurrected with a New York Times report that the embattled Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei has hired Podesta. Huawei was identified as a national security threat by the Trump administration and faces federal charges of racketeering and conspiring to steal trade secrets from American companies. One supposes that Podesta's retainer is in dollars and requires him to promote the interests of a company alleged to be an extension of the Chinese government.
All of this would be a footnote to how the Democrats have historically run Washington were it not for the chilling fact that President Biden told ABC News that he was NOT warned by the Pentagon to call off his demand that America retreat from Afghanistan. Under sworn testimony, his generals told a Congressional committee that they did, in fact, tell the president his plan was ill-advised. Those doomed by our withdrawal will demand to know whose recall is faulty.
This tragic episode compels America to demand to know: how good is the president's memory? And who exactly is within that circle of advisors -- both inside and outside the West Wing? Given Biden's curious response to ABC News, one could legitimately ask, just whose national policy are we actually pursuing? The president's or his advisors?
History is filled with instances of counselors close to the throne who ran afoul of the "prince" with disastrous results, yet this may be one instance where a distracted and confused leader is the one who is victimized, leaving our nation at risk.
*Lawrence Kadish serves on the Board of Governors of Gatestone Institute.
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Algeria, Morocco tensions jeopardise Maghreb-Europe gas supplies
Francis Ghiles/The Arab Weekly/October 04/2021
A 1,600-kilometre pipeline lying empty would be an unusual sight. All the more so when it links two continents (Africa and Europe) and four countries (Algeria, Morocco, Spain and Portugal). But that is a distinct possibility. Building its underwater section under the Straights of Gibraltar was a technical ftriumph for the Italian company Saipem which, in the early 1980s had conceived and constructed the first underwater gas pipeline in the world linking Tunisia and Italy, under the Straights of Sicily. The flow of gas in the Enrico Mattei pipeline which carries Algerian gas to Italy has never been interrupted since 1983. The crisis in the Maghreb has parallels with the recurring tensions between Russia and Ukraine which pushed Russia to build the Nordstream 1 and 2 gaslines to avoid depending on transit through Ukraine. Except that in Algeria’s case, the Medgaz which links Algeria directly to Spain via the Mediterranean Sea already exists. The Pedro Duran Farrell pipeline otherwise known as the Maghreb-Europe (GME) gas pipeline has been up and running since 1996. It may cease to be used on 31 October. The relevant 25-year transit agreement between Morocco, Spain and Portugal is set to lapse on 31 October. The execution of contracts for the sale of Algerian gas to Spain and Portugal depends on the renewal of transit rights. Will the two European countries let their contract with Morocco lapse or will they choose to buy only limited quantities of Algerian gas? Whatever their decision, Algeria may not agree to supply them with gas via Morocco. The GME has a capacity of 12 bcm but, in 2019, only 7bcm was passing through the pipeline, of which 2.5bcm was destined to Portugal. Medgaz will have a capacity of 10.3bcm by the end of the year, up from the current 8bcm which is already allocated to contracts with several buyers supplying Spain, thus leaving only 2.3bcm available to supply the Iberian Peninsula via Medgaz. Algerian gas exports to Spain account for a fluctuating 20-50% of that country’s import needs.
Algeria might try and supply its Iberian clients by providing extra volumes of LNG from its liquefaction plants or through LNG gasline swaps. But such contracts are expensive and complicated to set up. The cost incurred by Morocco, which would lose the 7% transit duties that it levies, would be much higher. It would have to find gas to replace the 600-650MMcm its buys from Algeria and which it uses for electricity generation. Morocco might be able to obtain gas via reverse flows through the GME from Spain, a situation which Ukraine is familiar with. The price of such gas might be subsidised by Morocco’s Middle East friends. This crisis was not a bolt out from the blue. In a note circulated among the group of non-aligned states on 16 July, the Moroccan embassy to the UN wrote that “the valiant people of the Kabyle region” of Algeria deserve to fully enjoy their “right to self-determination”. A month later, paying the first official visit to Morocco by an Israeli foreign minister, Yair Lapid discussed with his Moroccan counterpart their “concern about the role played by Algeria in the region” notably its close links with Iran. Morocco’s relations with Germany and Spain have soured over the past year.
Mistrust runs deep
As the two north African countries turn their back on one another the high hopes of industrial cooperation which existed in 1996 have been dashed and with them the opportunity of creating a chemical Maghreb which would have inserted the region more closely into world trade. Hundreds of thousands of potential jobs will go missing in a region where youth unemployment and poverty are high, and rising. The pipeline could have brought greater wealth and stability. Uncertainty about its future has come to symbolise the lack of leadership which has bedevilled North Africa for decades.
The mistrust between Algeria and Morocco goes back nearly six decades. Competition to be the leading regional power is at the heart of this bitter rivalry which has prevented broader economic cooperation between North African countries from Tunisia to Mauritania. Failure to open borders and encourage trade and investment across the Maghreb has shaved at least two percentage points off growth, encouraged the flight of capital and denied a region where unemployment is high, massive amounts of investment, both private and public, national and international. Neither the EU nor the US has been able, or critics would argue, willing to bring the two countries closer. The Western Sahara is one of the many causes for the distrust between the two countries. In diplomatic terms, it is a frozen conflict. The international status of the former Spanish colony remains in limbo but Morocco is unlikely to relinquish its claim.
Wounded giant
Sonatrach, meanwhile, has weathered so many scandals and corruption trials over the last twenty years that it is the shadow of its former self. It is a testimony to the skills of its engineers that the proud company of the 80s and 90s has not been destroyed. Algeria’s export earnings grew by 45% to $12.6bn during the first five months of 2021 over the corresponding period last year. Foreign income in 2021 is forecast to rise to $33-5bn. Capital expenditure is expected to total $40bn between 2020 and 2025, 51% of which would be in the national currency.
However seductive they appear, these statistics and projects, for a future polypropylene plant with TotalEnergies and others with Turkey cannot disguise the fact that the hydrocarbons sector, which accounts for 95% of export earnings, a figure which is unchanged in over forty years, is not well managed. But the country does have 25,000 bcm of gas reserves in huge shale basins. These are the third largest in the world after the US and China, ahead of Argentina. They remain untouched and the authorities propose no solution to the looming shortage of gas in Algeria.
The outlines of Algeria’s energy problem are hiding in plain sight: current gas production (130bcm, divided into three equal parts: consumption, exports and reinjection) is mainly provided by the Hassi R’Mel field. Thanks to an enhanced recovery programme completed last year, the field is currently producing slightly more than 60bcm/annum of gas. It will be able to maintain this rate until 2028, after which its output will fall rapidly, becoming insignificant as of 2040. Downstream, the greatest problems are posed by the electricity system, which consumes some 20bcm/annum of gas. The efficiency rate of its old power plants is very low (around 36%) and grid losses are high (13.5%). New, more efficient power plants are being brought into service but neither Sonelgaz, which has a monopoly on the production and sale of electricity, nor consumers have any incentive to seek savings. Gas is supplied by Sonelgaz at the absurdly low price of $0.30/MMbtu, which is probably the lowest in the world. This price does not even cover Sonatrach´s production costs. The average consumer price of electricity is only $0.03/kwh, excluding taxes. Acting on the gas supply and on consumption are required to find a way out of the crisis.
Sonatrach claims it made 18 new discoveries over the past year or two which has boosted the volumes of Algeria’s hydrocarbon reserves by two and a half times. Such statistics smack of manipulation. Recent talk of a Nigeria-Algeria gas line is pie in the sky. So, for that matter is the project of a gas pipeline at sea from Nigeria to Morocco. We are in realm of fairy tales, not of projects which have the slightest chance of being realised. The consequences of the political turmoil of recent years in Algeria has been an endless game of revolving chairs in the economic sector which speaks of a broader disarray and lack of strategic thinking. There is no longer a pilot at the controls of the Algerian economy.
Europe never engaged
The empty GME pipeline also speaks of an EU unable to think strategically about a region which is important for its security. The EU member states are divided. The revolts which spread across the Arab lands in 2011, the more active role played by Turkey and certain middle East monarchies, let alone China, in the Mediterranean have been met, in the Maghreb, by a failure of Europe’s political imagination. Europe has failed to live up to the challenge of its turbulent frontiers and the arc of crisis which, for a quarter of a century, has spread from the Baltic states to Morocco. The EU and the US have allowed Russia to build up its military assets by accumulating strategic and tactical mistakes in Iraq, Libya and Syria. The West has indulged in wars of choice which have destabilised a region bedevilled by long-standing domestic and regional conflicts.
The key reason the EU never engaged with North Africa is that it never offered the region the kind of economic integration that Germany did to its Eastern European hinterland. By investing heavily in industrial sites in the East and fully leveraging its comparative advantages, Germany made it a “verlangerte Werkbank” (a workshop extended to the East).
In the late 1990s, the EU had taken to portraying itself as a “normative” power. While the union lacked the attributes of traditional military superpower it could project global leadership by promoting such norms as democracy, rule of law, human rights and social solidarity. Such lofty aspirations however never formed the real basis of German, nor for that matter French foreign policy. The German decision to go ahead with Nord Stream 2 was inspired by “wandel durch handel” (change through trade). North Africa and Eastern Europe do not share the same historical or economic history but Northern Mediterranean countries might and should have followed Germany’s example vis à vis their Maghrebi counterpart. But it was never the intention of France, the key player in this game, to offer its former colonies a partnership in industrial development. This speaks of a failure of France’s political imagination.
The EU promoted its “normative” power in North Africa but never any industrial policy which might have benefited Maghreb countries as a whole. In such circumstances, the enhanced economic cooperation offered by the Barcelona Process in 1995 failed to live up to its promise because it never went beyond dressing up existing mercantilist practices, particularly those France enjoyed, in new garb. It failed to address the opportunities offered by oil and gas, phosphates and fertilisers and the broader chemicals industry at a time when the European chemical landscape was vanishing and being remodelled in a radical way. The EU failed to spot the rapidly growing demand for fertilisers that the relentless increase in world food consumption would require.
Never did EU or North African leaders consider or study the opportunities of a “chemical Maghreb” (1) where the joint use of phosphates, of which Morocco has huge reserves, gas and sulphur, which Algeria enjoys in abundance to which could be added ammonia to take advantage of the fast migration of chemical industries from northern Europe to the developing world. Speciality chemicals such as vitamins, colouring agents, industries dyes to name but a few have left Europe. The Gulf has built a powerful chemical industry; not so Algeria and Morocco. Algeria derives 95% of its export income from oil and gas, unchanged from 40 years ago, a symbol of failed economic policy. Morocco in contrast has through its nimble phosphate monopoly, OCP built up a network of joint ventures across Africa and in Brazil. Fertilisers derived from phosphates have been leveraged using management techniques worthy of any well managed international company.