English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For June 16/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
God’s Will Is That No One Will Be Lost
Matthew 18/11-14: “What do you think? If a shepherd has a hundred sheep, and one of them has gone astray, does he not leave the ninety-nine on the mountains and go in search of the one that went astray? And if he finds it, truly I tell you, he rejoices over it more than over the ninety-nine that never went astray. So it is not the will of your Father in heaven that one of these little ones should be lost.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 15-16/2021
Ministry of Health: 170 new infections, 3 deaths
Amer Fakhoury Foundation condemns the Arbitrary Arrest of Jaafar Ghadbouni
Aoun follows up on measures taken to address various crises, calls on competent authorities to strictly pursue monopolists
Aoun slams Berri, Sunni body for 'interfering' in govt formation
Presidency Denounces ‘Interference’ in Govt Process
Berri’s Govt. Initiative Could Be the ‘Last Chance’ for Lebanon, MP Says
FPM Bloc Rejects 'Veiled Tripartite Power-Sharing' in 8-8-8 Govt.
Mustaqbal Hits Back at Presidency, Says Obstruction in 'Aounist Genes'
General Security Chief in Moscow
Report: Russian Companies Eager to Engage in Oil Investments in Lebanon
Rights Groups Call for U.N. Probe into Beirut Port Blast
Bassil receives UN Special Coordinator, Chinese ambassador
Demonstrators march from Al-Mathaf to Martyrs' Square, calling for government of specialists
Nasrallah’s absurd suggestion to import Iranian fuel points to Hezbollah/desperationMakram Rabah/Al Arabiya/June 15/2021
Building on Lebanon’s Ruins/Michael Young/Carnegie/June 15/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 15-16/2021
Iran has made 6.5 kg (14 lb) of uranium enriched to up to 60%, the government said on Tuesday.
Saudi-Iranian dialogue transferred to Oman in second round after Baghdad
Israeli nationalists march in East Jerusalem under heavy police presence
Clashes with Palestinians as Jerusalem March Tests New Israeli Govt.
New Israel Govt. Vows Change, but Not for Palestinians
Netanyahu Defeat Brings Relief, if No Policy Shift, for Biden
Arab states call on UN Security Council to meet over Ethiopian dam
Biden names Israel ambassador days after new government
Erdogan, Biden put good face on meeting but contentious issues remain
Cairo fails to bring together Hamas, Fatah as common ground is elusive
Tunisian court releases media mogul Nabil Karoui
Algeria's FLN wins most seats in parliament, election authority says
Biden Lands in Geneva ahead of Putin Summit

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 15-165/2021
‘Racist,’ ‘Xenophobe,’ ‘Tyrant’: Hungarian PM Slandered for Speaking the Truth on Islam/Raymond Ibrahim/June 15/2021
What the West Can Learn from China's War on India/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/June 15/2021
Afghan translators of departing foreign forces face a mortal danger: Taliban retaliation/Sayed Salahuddin/Arab News/June 15/2021
High voter turnout out vital for Iran’s sham election/Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/June 15/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 15-16/2021
Ministry of Health: 170 new infections, 3 deaths
NNA /June 15/2021
The Ministry of Public Health announced 170 new coronavirus infection cases, which brings the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 542819.
Three deaths have been recorded.

Amer Fakhoury Foundation condemns the Arbitrary Arrest of Jaafar Ghadbouni
June 15/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/99787/amer-fakhoury-foundation-condemns-the-arbitrary-arrest-of-jaafar-ghadbouni-%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%b1-%d8%b9%d9%86-%d9%85%d8%a4%d8%b3%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%b1-%d9%81/
On June 6, 2021 the Lebanese General Security arrested an innocent American citizen of Lebanese decent, Jaafar Ghadbouni, and tried to fabricate false charges against him. The US embassy immediately interfered and realized the pattern of illegally arresting American citizens. Sharing our fathers story may have saved this man’s life. However, when are we going to put a stop to the illegal arrests of individuals in countries the USA considers allies? How many innocent people have to die for our government to realize the influence of Hezbollah in every sector of Lebanon and other countries around the world?

Aoun follows up on measures taken to address various crises, calls on competent authorities to strictly pursue monopolists
NNA/June 15/2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, today, followed up on the measures taken to address the crisis of fuel, medicines, and medical supplies.
The President called on competent bodies and departments to be strict in pursuing monopolists and those who take advantage of the current conditions to raise prices and achieve illegal profits.
MPs Sehnaoui and Terzian:
President Aoun met with Beirut's MPs Nicolas Sehnaoui and Hagob Terzian, today at Baabda Palace. Stages of repairing homes and buildings damaged in the explosion that occurred in Beirut port on August 4, and the material aid provided to those affected by the allocation of the President of the Republic, were tackled in the meeting, knowing that work is undergoing to allocate an additional 50 billion to complete aid and compensation for those affected. MPs Sehnaoui and Terzian thanked President Aoun for supporting the victims of the port explosion and for his constant follow-up to the compensation process.
MP Aoun:
The President received former Minister MP Mario Aoun, and deliberated with him current political developments and government affairs. The meeting also discussed awarding DamourGovernmental Hospital in preparation for the start of excavations to establish it with direct support from President Aoun. Stages of the "Human Academy for Meeting and Dialogue" project, which will be established in Damour, were also tackled.
MP Aoun said that the President informed him that the process of organizing the Academy has gone through a great deal of desire and is continuing despite the difficult circumstances that Lebanon is going through.-- Presidency Press office

Aoun slams Berri, Sunni body for 'interfering' in govt formation
Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star/June 15/2021
BEIRUT: President Michel Aoun Tuesday implicitly struck back at Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Muslim religious authorities, accusing them of interfering in the Cabinet formation process in a breach of the Constitution, in an escalatory position that is bound to further complicate the already-stalled formation process. In a statement released by the presidency’s media office, Aoun cited articles in the Constitution that confined the Cabinet formation process solely to the president and the premier-designate. Aoun’s position is likely to ramp up political tensions in the crises-ridden country which is reeling from the worst crippling economic and financial crunch in decades, posing the gravest threat to its stability since the 1975-90 Civil War. The Lebanese pound has been in a free fall since October 2019, losing over 90 percent of its value, pushing more than half of Lebanon’s 6 million population into poverty and unemployment. The presidential statement comes as Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri has put on hold for now his decision to step down in response to the continued obstruction by Aoun and MP Gebran Bassil of his attempts to form a proposed Cabinet of nonpartisan specialists to enact reforms and rescue the country from total economic collapse. It also comes as Berri said Monday he was determined to push forward with his proposal calling for the formation of a 24-member Cabinet of nonpartisan specialists with no blocking one-third plus one [veto power] to any side as part of his initiative aimed at ending the political stalemate that for 10 months has left Lebanon without a fully functioning government to tackle multiple crises, including an unprecedented financial downturn that is threatening the Lebanese with poverty and hunger.
The Amal Movement Monday warned of “catastrophic consequences” if Berri’s initiative was torpedoed by the continued obstruction of the government formation by Aoun and his son-in-law, Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement.
“At a time when the Lebanese are looking forward to forming a new government which will be devoted to addressing the deteriorating economic and social conditions in the country, especially after 10 months have passed since the resignation of Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s government and eight months since Prime Minister Saad Hariri was tasked with forming a government,” the presidency's statement said, “and while President Michel Aoun is expressing every readiness in facilitating this task, we read from time to time statements and positions from different references that interfere in the formation process, ignoring, intentionally or unintentionally, the mechanism stipulated in the Constitution to be followed to form the government, which is summed up by the necessity of agreement between the president and the premier-designate who are exclusively concerned with the formation process and the issuance [of Cabinet formation] decrees.”The statement added that some facts that have emerged during the past few days have gone beyond the constitutional rules and the established principles.
“The references and bodies who volunteer to help in the government formation are encouraged to rely on the Constitution and abide by its provisions and not expand on its interpretation to establish new norms and rules that do not conform with it, but rather are in harmony with the desires of these references, or with goals that some of those who work on obstruction and lack of facilitation, seek to achieve, which are practices that are no longer possible to deny,” the statement from presidency said. It was clearly responding to the Higher Islamic Religious Council, Lebanon’s highest Sunni authority, headed by Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdel-Latif Derian, which has thrown its weight behind Hariri in his deepening rift with Aoun, warning against infringing on the premier-designate's constitutional powers. The presidency noted in the statement that while it responded to many of the proposals presented to it to achieve a natural birth of the government and condoned many abuses and direct targeting of it and the president’s powers, it “believes that the artificial momentum that some people create in approaching the government formation file is not acceptable if it does not take the only path stipulated in Article 53, paragraphs 2, 3, 4 and 5 of the Constitution.”“Finally, we must ask: Do the ones who take positions and interventions which hinder the formation process serve the interests of the Lebanese who are mired in an unprecedented living and economic crisis, and achieve their urgent humanitarian and social needs, to which there are no serious solutions, except through a new rescue government?” the statement added.
Although no reaction has so far been issued to Aoun’s tough position from either Berri or Hariri, LBCI channel quoted sources close to the Future Movement as saying that the presidential statement was “offensive” against the speaker and the Higher Islamic Religious Council’s position. “President Michel Aoun is closing doors in the face of initiatives and is announcing with a full mouth that he does not want a government headed by Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri because any progress in dealing with problems will be attributed to Hariri’s role,” the sources said. “The obstruction is [rooted] in the Aounist genes and there is no hope for a genuine Cabinet breakthrough.” Asked whether the presidency's statement was meant to respond to Berri’s initiative and the Higher Islamic Religious Council, an official source told The Daily Star: “The statement was meant to respond to all the parties that are interfering in the [Cabinet] formation issue, while ignoring the president’s role and powers and to parties that are setting conditions and consider themselves the ones who form the government.”The presidency's statement was meant to also respond to “the parties and bodies that target the presidency’s position and the president’s powers and to the parties and persons who consider that the source of obstruction [of the Cabinet formation] is the president,” the source added. Deputy Parliament Speaker Elie Ferzli asked after a meeting with Hariri Tuesday whether Aoun would respond favorably to Berri’s initiative to break the Cabinet impasse. “Prime Minister Hariri is at the peak of positivity. The spirit, letter and shape of this positivity are in the hands of Speaker Nabih Berri who should be entrusted with the path to find solutions to bring the country out of its crisis,” Ferzli told reporters after the meeting at Hariri’s Downtown Beirut residence. “Is there someone to respond? Is there someone to hear and respond? I don’t know.” He added that Berri was still waiting for a response to his initiative from Bassil. “So far, there have been only some statements which carry with it a negative position,” Ferzli said, referring to the presidential statement.

Presidency Denounces ‘Interference’ in Govt Process
Naharnet/June 15/2021
The Presidency issued a statement on Tuesday criticizing what it said were “interventions” and statements made by political parties concerning the government formation process. Below is the statement released by media office of the Presidency:
The Lebanese are looking forward for the formation of a new government to address the deteriorating economic and social conditions, mainly 10 months after the resignation of PM Hassan Diab and 8 months since the designation of PM Saad Hariri to form a government.
While President Michel Aoun expresses readiness to facilitate this task, we come across statements and positions from different references that interfere in the formation process intentionally or unwittingly ignoring the mechanism stipulated in the constitution, which is summarized by the necessity of agreement between the President of the Republic and the PM-designate who are exclusively concerned with the process.
Some facts have emerged in the last few days intruding on the constitutional norms, parties that thankfully volunteer to help in the formation are urged to abide by the constitution and its provisions.
The Presidency has responded to a number of suggestions to achieve a natural formation of the government, and has overlooked abuses, violations and direct targeting of the jurisdictions of the President. The artificial momentum that some people create in approaching the government formation file is not acceptable if it does not abide by Article 53 paragraphs 2, 3, 4 and 5 of the Constitution. An initiative made by Speaker Nabih Berri aimed at easing the formation hurdles drove the media attention, amid reports it could be coordinated with French support.

Berri’s Govt. Initiative Could Be the ‘Last Chance’ for Lebanon, MP Says
Naharnet/June 15/2021
MP Qassem Hashem of the Development and Liberation parliamentary bloc said on Tuesday that the initiative presented by Speaker Berri to ease the formation of a government “could be the last chance” for Lebanon to have a government.
“Everyone is counting on the initiative of Berri which could be the last chance,” said Hashem. He assured that negotiations and contacts between political leaders are “ongoing albeit at a slower pace.”“We have to be optimistic. Lebanon is a country of surprises,” he added. He commented on media reports that the PM-designate Saad Hariri could step back from his task to form a government amid hurdles obstructing his mission. “Hariri’s resignation is set aside for the time being. An opportunity is given now to the contacts (between leaders),” he said. He said in order to push the formation process forward, French contacts with Berri ar underay for that purpose.Berri’s initiative suggests a 24-minister line-up based on the 8+8+8 formula.

FPM Bloc Rejects 'Veiled Tripartite Power-Sharing' in 8-8-8 Govt.
Naharnet/June 15/2021
The Free Patriotic Movement-led Strong Lebanon bloc on Tuesday said it rejects “veiled tripartite power-sharing” in a so-called “three eights” government that would grant each political camp eight ministerial seats. In a statement issued after its weekly meeting, the bloc also said that it rejects “the fabrication of new norms related to an incomplete rotation (of portfolios) or a so-called exclusivity in the formation or nomination process.” Calling on PM-designate Saad Hariri to “consult with the parliamentary blocs and agree with the president on a government line-up in line with the spirit and text of the constitution and according to the known mechanisms and standards of the National Pact,” the bloc said it will show “ultimate positivity” toward Speaker Nabih Berri’s efforts. It, however, stressed that any initiative “should be characterized by keenness on rights and the constitution and should be positive and neutral in order to lead to results.”

Mustaqbal Hits Back at Presidency, Says Obstruction in 'Aounist Genes'
Naharnet/June 15/2021
Sources following up on the cabinet formation process and close to al-Mustaqbal Movement have snapped back at a statement issued by the Presidency, describing it as an attack on Speaker Nabih Berri and the stance of Dar al-Fatwa’s juristic council.
“President Aoun is shutting the doors in the face of initiatives and openly declaring that he does not want a government. He does not want a government led by (PM-designate Saad) Hariri because any progress in addressing the files will be attributed to Hariri’s role,” the sources told LBCI TV on Tuesday. “Aoun does not want a government led by another figure because he knows that it would not be able to move forward and, accordingly, Aoun wants to keep the situation as it is: a caretaker cabinet that it not taking care of matters, and running the country’s affairs from the presidential palace and through the Higher Defense Council,” the sources added. “Obstruction is in the Aounist genes and there is no hope in achieving a real breakthrough,” the sources added.

General Security Chief in Moscow
Naharnet/June 15/2021
The General Security Directorate said in a statement on Tuesday that its head, Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim has traveled to Moscow. The statement said that Ibrahim will stay in the Russian capital for “several days,” and will meet with a number of Russian officials in the Russian Federation. It did not provide additional details.

Report: Russian Companies Eager to Engage in Oil Investments in Lebanon
Naharnet/June 15/2021
Russian companies are reportedly interested in investments in Lebanon’s energy and oil sectors, after the formation of a Lebanese government, the Saudi Asharq el-Awsat newspaper reported on Tuesday. Russian involvement in the Lebanese political and economic files has recently been enhanced after 3 Lebanese political delegations visited Moscow in the last few months, said the daily. Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, a delegation from Hizbullah, head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Jebran Bassil have all visited Russia in the past few months. Discussions between the Russian and Lebanse officials did not only focus on political files, but have also extended to the economic aspect. Russian officials expressed their will to invest in Lebanon, sources familiar with the talks told the newspaper. Russian companies are interested in oil refining and electricity generation in Lebanon, in addition to investing in the devastated Beirut Port, and other sectors, it noted. Lebanon has two oil refining facilities on its coast in the north (Al-Badawi) and the south (Al-Zahrani), and they were connected to two oil pipelines from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, but they stopped working due to war. Their tanks are now used to store oil derivatives.
During his visit to Moscow, Hariri agreed during talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to “facilitate the ground for Russian companies to invest in Lebanon and Lebanese companies to invest in Russia."But the above can only be feasible when Lebanese leaders succeed at forming a much-needed government.
According to sources, the dire political situation in Lebanon hinders any opportunity for foreign investments. “The political and financial deterioration pose an obstacle to attracting investments, given that the investor needs a stable environment, a stable currency, and reforms, which do not exist at the moment,” they said. Russian economic involvement in Lebanon began in 2018 with the formation of a “consortium” consisting of the French “Total” company, the Italian “Eni” and the Russian “Novatek” that won a contract for energy exploration and extraction in the Lebanese economic waters, and the Russian company’s share amounted to 20 percent of the alliance. Subsequently, the Russian company Rosneft signed a contract with the Lebanese Ministry of Energy in 2019 to invest in oil storage tanks in northern Lebanon in order to invest in it.

Rights Groups Call for U.N. Probe into Beirut Port Blast
Agence France Presse/June 15/2021
Rights groups including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch Tuesday called for a U.N. investigation into last year's port blast in Beirut in light of a slow domestic probe. The August 4 explosion at Beirut port killed more than 200 people and destroyed swaths of the capital but ten months on, little light has been shed on the circumstances that led to Lebanon's worst peacetime disaster. Despite growing calls at home and abroad for an impartial investigation, Lebanese authorities have repeatedly said they reject an international probe. "As we approach the one-year anniversary of the explosion, the case for such an international investigation has only strengthened," said a joint letter signed by 53 Lebanese, regional, and international rights groups in addition to survivors and families of the victims. The U.N.'s "Human Rights Council has the opportunity to assist Lebanon to meet its human rights obligations by conducting an investigative or fact-finding mission into the blast," the letter said. One of the largest non-nuclear blasts in history was caused by a vast stock of highly explosive ammonium nitrate that had sat for years in a port warehouse, little more than a stone's throw from residential districts.
The lead investigative judge on the case said this month that he will soon start interrogating suspects after completing a preliminary phase of investigations. He is looking into whether the blaze that caused the blast was sparked by accident or deliberately, without ruling out the possibility of a foreign attack. A recent report submitted by French investigators assisting in the local probe dismissed the likelihood of such an attack, a judicial source told AFP. "The continuing failure of the domestic process reinforces the need for an international investigation to determine the causes of the explosion and who was responsible," HRW said in a separate statement. "The cost of such a failure includes not just the absence of justice for victims, but the... risk of further abuse and negligence by the responsible parties." With the anniversary of the blast approaching, Lebanese leaders are under growing pressure at home and abroad to provide answers. Many citizens blame the blast on decades of negligence and corruption by these same leaders -- none of whom have been detained over the tragedy. "The Lebanese authorities have obstructed, evaded, and delayed the ongoing domestic investigation," Amnesty said in its own statement. "The Human Rights Council must establish an investigative or fact-finding mission into the blast to identify whether conduct by the state caused or contributed to unlawful deaths."

Bassil receives UN Special Coordinator, Chinese ambassador
NNA/June 15/2021
Free Patriotic Movement chief, MP Gebran Bassil, on Tuesday received at his residence the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka, with talks touching on the governmental issue and the importance of reforms. Discussions also dwelt on the aid provided by the United Nations to the underprivileged families. MP Bassil also received the new Chinese Ambassador to Lebanon, Qian Minjian, who came on an acquaintance visit, during which they discussed the bilateral relations and the importance of bolstering economic cooperation.

Demonstrators march from Al-Mathaf to Martyrs' Square, calling for government of specialists
NNA/June 15/2021
A National News Agency correspondent reported the launch of a demonstration this afternoon starting from the Al-Mathaf area, moving towards Barbir, Corniche Al-Mazraa, Bechara Al-Khoury, and ending at the Martyrs' Square, bearing the title "stop the collapse". Demonstrators raised the Lebanese flag and hoisted banners calling for "the immediate departure of the ruling authority and the formation of an independent government of specialists with exceptional legislative powers to address all living, social, economic, and financial crises."

Nasrallah’s absurd suggestion to import Iranian fuel points to Hezbollah desperation
Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/June 15/2021
These days, the busy streets of the Lebanese capital Beirut are extremely hard to maneuver, not because of the thousands of tourists which used to flood its streets every summer, but rather because of the stretched queues of cars at gas stations trying to fill their tanks as Lebanon is no longer able to import fuel.
The economic crisis equally extends to other basic and vital commodities, from food to medicine, a calamity which is augmented by the fact that the country’s political elite have yet to admit to their failure or to try to address the crux of the problem: Lebanon’s non-existing sovereignty brought about by the regional pursuits of Iran-backed militia Hezbollah, and decades of running an unfeasible economic model, whose only operating system is a medieval clientelist system.
Leading Lebanese elite is perhaps the denier-in-chief Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary general, whose recent televised speech was nothing less than a mix of delusion and deception as he spent over an hour vainly trying to abdicate his militia’s responsibility for Lebanon’s abysmal state of affairs. According to Nasrallah’s logic, or lack of, Lebanon’s ongoing crisis is entirely unrelated to either Iran’s expansionist plans, or its militia’s desecration of the region and looting of resources in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.
The apex of Nasrallah’s absurdity came when he demanded the Lebanese government resolve the fuel crisis, and threatened to import Iranian fuel should the state fail to take action.
“We, within Hezbollah, will go to Iran, negotiate with the Iranian government... and buy vessels full of petrol and fuel oil and bring them to Beirut port,” Nasrallah said.
Yet Nasrallah’s coup du grace came when he announced, “Let the Lebanese state (dare to) prevent the delivery of petrol and fuel oil to the Lebanese people! … We can no longer tolerate these scenes of humiliation.”
The real farce is that Iran, like many countries who belong to the anti-western axis, don’t have the resources to refine its own oil, and thus suffers from its own fuel shortage.
In fact, the port of Beirut, as well as other legal and illegal border crossings into Syria, are controlled by Hezbollah, and there are already no restrictions to prevent them from importing Iranian oil into Lebanon – other than the fact that such a foolish move will bring about US sanctions on Lebanon, something which the Lebanese certainly wish to avoid.
Nasrallah spent his TV appearance deceitfully asserting that Lebanon’s economic downfall is the outcome of a continued western and Arab blockade, and part of a so-called punitive campaign to defeat the “axis of resistance” economically after it has failed to do so militarily. Coincidentally, Nasrallah failed to contextualize this so-called blockade within the actions of his Iranian patrons, who have for decades sponsored militias, such as Hezbollah, that have left the state institutions they occupy rotten, and provided a fertile ground for corruption and lawlessness.
In addition to externalizing the blame for Lebanon’s plight, Nasrallah went on to deny that the economic crisis is real, claiming that the ongoing shortage of fuel, medicine, and food products is due to cartels who are stockpiling these commodities to sell them at a higher price. Nasrallah also accuses the Lebanese political establishment of protecting these cartels and refusing to implement key economic reforms necessary to stop Lebanon’s collapse.
Ironically, Nasrallah sees himself and his paramilitary party, which have been in parliament since 1992 and government since 2005, to be outside the realm of blame or corruption. His criticism also does not include his political foes the likes of Saad Hariri and Walid Joumblatt, but rather speaker of parliament, and head of Amal movement, Nabeh Berri, his main Shia ally and Gebran Bassil the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement and President Michael Aoun’s son-in-law and political heir. Nasrallah does not miss a chance to remind his supporters as well as the general public that the crisis in Lebanon is far removed from his militia’s hegemony over the state but rather because of the corrupt system that he wishes to reform, or so he claims.
If one is to disregard the fact that Hezbollah has been running one of the biggest smuggling operations in the history of modern Lebanon, it is impossible to neglect that many of these cartels which Nasrallah mentions are connected in one way or another to their money laundering operations which are housed in areas controlled by Hezbollah – leaks from the hacking of Al-Qard al-Hassan earlier this year, a Hezbollah lending-house and key chain in the group’s pawn and money laundering network, provide ample evidence in support of this.
Nasrallah’s naive suggestions, such as growing potato and parsley, or buying Iranian oil, fail even the most basic checks of economic theory. The impact of purchasing the products in Lebanese pounds would be disastrous, with the government forced to print more money, leading to rapid inflation, and deepening the country’s catastrophic economic crisis.
Rather than importing Iranian oil to Lebanon, Nasrallah would be better of sending this oil directly to Syria, and putting an end to the smuggling ring he and his allies are running or, if he truly cares about reform, he would use his weapons to force the government – which he controls – to stop subsidizing Lebanon’s decaying economy and instead target those who deserve government aid.
Nasrallah’s Iranian oil stunt is yet another reminder that Iran and its cronies are not in the business of nation building, but rather their function is to parasitically live off the economies of the countries they occupy. The only way for Lebanon and the region to escape this nightmare is to refuse to normalize with Nasrallah’s suicidal logic.

Building on Lebanon’s Ruins
Michael Young/Carnegie/June 15/2021
Hezbollah may accept a new government, but would be as pleased if the country’s social and political order crumbled.
The government-formation process has once again underlined Hezbollah’s capacity to play on two levels since the all-too-brief popular uprising of October 2019. The party has frequently manipulated events to leave itself with two options, either of which will advance Hezbollah’s interests. It is doing so again today.
In October 2019, the party’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, along with his communal ally Nabih Berri, mobilized to neutralize the street protests and shield the government of Saad al-Hariri. In that way they sought to preserve the broad equilibrium in place that had sustained the political class, and with it the Lebanese political order in which Hezbollah has anchored its domestic hegemony.
That plan momentarily suffered a setback when Hariri resigned. His move caught Hezbollah off guard, giving a fleeting victory to the so-called “revolution.” To fill the void, the political class brought into office the toothless and calamitous government of Hassan Diab. Within a matter of weeks, the politicians and their allies had undermined the government’s economic program, which sought to place the burden of Lebanon’s financial losses on the banking sector, and by extension on the politicians with banking interests.
Hezbollah watched all this with equanimity. If Diab succeeded, he would stabilize a country that the party dominated. If the government failed, this would lead to the further destruction of a political order whose demise Hezbollah had always welcomed. It was Nasrallah, after all, who had said in an interview with the Emirati newspaper Al-Khaleej in March 1986: “We do not believe in a nation whose borders are 10,452 square kilometers in Lebanon; our project foresees Lebanon as part of a political map of an Islamic world in which specificities would cease to exist, but in which the rights, freedoms, and dignity of minorities are guaranteed.”
Some might argue that Nasrallah’s attitude has changed since that time. Really? When has the Hezbollah leader ever shown that he believes that Lebanon and its system of sectarian consensus are legitimate? When has he done anything but push to transform the country into an outpost of Iran’s expansionist project in the region—a project that sees Lebanon as part of a political map of an Islamic world dominated by Tehran? If Nasrallah has proven anything, it is the consistency of his thinking. Everything we see today suggests that if the Lebanese system disintegrates, Hezbollah would welcome it.
This explains the party’s ambiguous attitude toward an agreement on a government. Hezbollah does not appear to oppose a government, and has backed the initiative of Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri in this regard, but nor has it done anything to ensure a successful outcome. Some have argued that the party is unwilling to harm its relationship with Michel Aoun and Gebran Bassil by forcing both men to make concessions in their months-long standoff with Hariri. Nonsense. Bassil is too much in need of Hezbollah’s backing for his own presidential bid to risk a falling out with the party.
More likely, Hezbollah sees that it can only gain from a clash between the leading Maronite and Sunni representatives. That dispute, which has drifted onto the terrain of constitutional prerogatives, has only highlighted that the consensus over the Lebanese political system is unraveling. If this drift leads toward a reconsideration of the current post-Taif constitution and, therefore, an overhaul of the sectarian social contract, Hezbollah would be in a good position to demand a larger share in the system for the Shi‘a community. This could translate into even greater power than the party has today.
Moreover, an accord over Iran’s nuclear program would release Iranian funding for Tehran’s regional proxies. This would allow Hezbollah to partly fill Lebanon’s financial and economic vacuum. The party could use this as leverage to impose a more overtly pro-Iran order and then secure it with constitutional changes it desires.
Aoun, Bassil, and Hariri are so focused on their quarrels that they cannot see that Hezbollah, by allowing the system’s failure, is fulfilling a long-term ambition to reshape Lebanon. The crumbling of the economy could mean that the financial and economic sectors in which the Christians and Sunnis have played a major role could take a decisive hit, not to mention the communal emigration that has accompanied it. It would also indicate that the Lebanese army, the one institution still enjoying national credibility and dominated by the Sunnis and Maronites, may become weaker. That suits Hezbollah, as does the push by the dupes at right-wing U.S. think tanks to defund the army, on the crude assumption this will weaken the party.
A new Lebanon is emerging on the debris of the old, and Hezbollah wants to fashion the country in its own image. Three words are notably absent today: “International Monetary Fund.” Lebanon will not soon resort to the IMF’s conditions and reform its public finances to secure a bailout. Hezbollah does not want Lebanon to submit to an institution in which Western states have a major say. In this the party will have the backing of a contemptible Lebanese political class that refuses to make any concessions that diminish its power.
That leaves the Lebanese people. Do they want their country to turn into a permanent base for an authoritarian, clerical regime in Tehran, alienating the West and much of the Arab world? Are they prepared to give up on their system of sectarian compromise and power-sharing for an order permanently dominated by Hezbollah? It has been a year and a half that the Lebanese realized that their politicians had robbed them of everything, in many cases denying their children a future. Yet the society has remained silent. A people that won’t fight for their children’s future is not likely to do so for their country.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 15-16/2021
Iran has made 6.5 kg (14 lb) of uranium enriched to up to 60%, the government said on Tuesday.
Reuters/June 15, 2021
DUBAI: Iran has made 6.5 kg (14 lb) of uranium enriched to up to 60%, the government said on Tuesday, detailing a move that rattled the country's nuclear talks with world powers by taking the fissile material a step towards nuclear weapons-grade of 90%. Government spokesman Ali Rabiei was quoted by state media as saying the country had also produced 108 kg of uranium enriched to 20% purity, indicating quicker output than the rate required by the Iranian law that created the process. Iran said in April it would begin enriching uranium to 60% purity, a move that would take the uranium much closer to the 90% suitable for a nuclear bomb, after Tehran accused arch-foe Israel of sabotaging a key nuclear site. Tuesday's disclosure came as Tehran and Washington hold indirect talks in Vienna aimed at finding ways to revive a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.
Iran’s hardline parliament passed a law last year to oblige the government to harden its nuclear stance, partly in reaction to former President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018. Trump’s withdrawal prompted Iran to steadily overstep the accord’s limits on its nuclear programme designed to make it harder to develop an atomic bomb - an ambition Tehran denies. "Under parliament's law..., the Atomic Energy Organization was supposed to produce 120 kg of 20 percent enriched uranium in a year. According to the latest report, we now have produced 108 kg of 20% uranium in the past five months," Rabiei was quoted as saying. "In the area of 60% uranium production, in the short time that has elapsed..., about 6.5 kg has been produced," Rabiei added. A quarterly report on Iran’s nuclear activities by the U.N. nuclear watchdog in May said that, as of May 22, Tehran had produced 62.8 kg of uranium enriched up to 20%, and 2.4 kg of uranium enriched up to 60%, with the next level down being enriched to between 2% and 5%.

Saudi-Iranian dialogue transferred to Oman in second round after Baghdad
The Arab Weekly/June 15/2021
MUSCAT - Omani political sources linked the visit of Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan to the sultanate of Oman to reports about an impending transfer of dialogue sessions between Riyadh and Tehran from Baghdad to Muscat.
However, they stressed that the exchange of visits and delegations could also provide Muscat and Riyadh with an opportunity to build new relations free of the contentious legacies of past conflicts. Sources told The Arab Weekly that the sultanate is endeavouring to bring the Saudi-Iranian views closer at the same time that it is undertaking a mediation for a settlement in Yemen. They say that Muscat will host the second phase of the dialogue between the two countries after Iraq hosted the first phase, which consisted of introductory sessions in which each side presented its demands and also exchanged words of courtesy while working at building mutual trust. Sources indicated that Oman is exploiting the greater warmth in its relationship with Saudi Arabia to achieve a new breakthrough that will be an additional feather in the cap of its active diplomacy, which in the past succeeded in laying the ground for the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the five +1 countries. It is also currently working to achieve a breakthrough in the Yemen crisis after an Omani security delegation visited Houthi leadership in Sana’a. An Omani political source who talked to The Arab Weekly, was optimistic about his country’s ability to solve the Yemeni conflict despite all remaining hurdles, even if the matter will take some time. The Omani news agency ONA reported that Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan had arrived in the Sultanate for a short visit, Monday.
The agency added that the Saudi minister “carried a verbal message from Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz to Sultan Haitham bin Tariq, related to relations between the two countries and prospects for strengthening them.”The sultanate of Oman is aware of the importance of ties with Saudi Arabia especially since Gulf support could a play a crucial role in pulling it out of its severe economic crisis. Muscat also wants to break free of the ambiguities that have plagued the relationship with the kingdom for years. An informed Saudi source said that the Saudi-Omani links have continued to suffer from the impact of the Buraimi Oasis conflict of the 1950s and 1960s, and have not overcome the fallout of Saudi Arabia’s role in what became known in the Arab world as the “war” of the Green Mountain of Jabal Akhdar. In that war, which lasted for four years up until 1959 , Saudi Arabia provided covert support to the rebels against Sultan Qaboos bin Said and his father Sultan Said bin Taimur before him. The source added that the most important breakthrough now is the Iranian factor since Muscat is aware of Tehran’s tough predicament which put Oman in a good bargaining position allowing it to obtain better results. The source explained that on the level of Omani-Saudi relations much depends now on the willingness of Riyadh to overcome the contentious legacies of the past and build a new relationship. The Saudis view negotiations with Iran as a necessity for a solution in Yemen. They see the Houthis as not holding to hard-line positions on issues of specific concern to them during the ongoing talks. The main areas of dispute are related instead to the broader game that Iran is playing in order to clinch concessions on other fronts, whether with Saudi Arabia and the countries of the region or on the course of its nuclear programme and the negotiations about it under way in Vienna. Observers believe that the kingdom has become convinced that dialogue with Iran is the best way to resolve the thorny issues between the two countries, including the Yemen crisis. About a month ago, Baghdad hosted a meeting between Saudi and Iranian officials in an attempt to bridge the gap between Riyadh and Tehran and calm the situation in the region. The Financial Times revealed May 7 that high-ranking Saudi and Iranian officials held direct talks in an attempt to repair relations between the two countries. The discussions remained under tights wraps for a while. But exclusive sources said Riyadh and Tehran discussed the future of the conflict in Syria, the formation of a Lebanese government and a ceasefire in Yemen, noting that any Saudi-Iranian understanding will require several rounds, which may take a few months, before reaching any tangible results. Tensions grew between Riyadh and Tehran because of the Yemen war, as the Iran-aligned Houthi group stepped up its attacks on Saudi Arabia. These tensions further worsened after the 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities, which Riyadh blamed on Iran, a charge Tehran denied. The Saudis are moving on more than one front to push Iran to end escalation and cease threats to regional security. They are reported to be pressing for the negotiated nuclear agreement to include clear Iranian commitments in this regard. Riyadh’s wishes are not met with a lot of enthusiasm in the United States, which wants before anything else to expedite talks about the nuclear agreement and put the Iran’s nuclear programme under tight international control.

Israeli nationalists march in East Jerusalem under heavy police presence
Reuters/June 15, 2021
JERUSALEM: Israeli far-right nationalists began a flag-waving march through East Jerusalem on Tuesday that risks reigniting tensions with Palestinians and poses an early challenge for Israel's new government. Last month, Israeli-Palestinian tensions and violence in contested Jerusalem helped trigger 11 days of cross-border fighting between Israel and Gaza's ruling Hamas militant group. On Tuesday, Israeli police in riot gear and on horseback cordoned off areas leading to the walled Old City's flashpoint Damascus Gate, clearing the area of Palestinians ahead of a congregation of right-wing demonstrators in the neighbourhood. Police were expected to prevent marchers from going through the Damascus Gate, the main entry to the Muslim Quarter of the Old City, which is also home to shrines sacred to Judaism, Islam and Christianity and is the most sensitive site in the more than 70-year-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
"Jerusalem is for all religions, but Jerusalem is in Israel. And in Israel, we must be able to go wherever we want, with our flag," said marcher Doron Avrahami, 50, channelling right-wing frustrations with police restrictions. Assailing the march as a "provocation", Palestinians called for "Day of Rage" protests in Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank with memories still fresh of confrontations between Israeli police and Palestinians during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. "We warn of the dangerous repercussions that may result from the occupying power's intention to allow extremist Israeli settlers to carry out the Flag March in occupied Jerusalem," Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said. Thousands of Palestinians gathered in areas near the Damascus Gate and at least five were injured in clashes with Israeli police firing stun grenades, the Palestine Red Crescent ambulance service said. Several hours before the event was due to start, incendiary balloons launched from Gaza caused several fires in fields in Israeli communities near the border with the Palestinian enclave, witnesses and the Israeli fire brigade said.
Such incidents had stopped with the ceasefire that ended last month's Israel-Gaza fighting.
Hamas warned of renewed hostilities over the march, testing the mettle of the new Israeli government of Naftali Bennett, which approved the procession though along an amended route that appeared designed to avoid friction with Palestinians. Bennett heads a far-right party, and diverting the procession could anger members of his religious base and expose him to accusations he was giving Hamas veto power over events in Jerusalem. The event was originally scheduled for May 10 as part of "Jerusalem Day" festivities that celebrate Israel's capture of East Jerusalem in the 1967 Middle East war. At the last minute, that march was diverted away from the Damascus Gate and the Muslim Quarter, but the move was not enough to dissuade Hamas from firing rockets towards Jerusalem. Sitting on a bench outside the police cordon, Khalil Mitwani, a 50-year-old Palestinian, said of the marchers: "They are making a big problem in Jerusalem. All the people here want peace - why make problems here?"Diplomats urged restraint by all sides. "Tensions (are) rising again in Jerusalem at a very fragile & sensitive security & political time, when UN & Egypt are actively engaged in solidifying the ceasefire," UN Middle East envoy Tor Wennesland said on Twitter. He called on all sides to "act responsibly & avoid any provocations that could lead to another round of confrontation". Israel, which occupied and later annexed East Jerusalem in a move that has not won international recognition, regards the entire city as its capital. Palestinians want East Jerusalem to be the capital of a future state that would include the West Bank and Gaza.

Clashes with Palestinians as Jerusalem March Tests New Israeli Govt.
Agence France Presse/June 15, 2021
More than a thousand ultranationalist demonstrators bearing Israeli flags poured into Jerusalem's flashpoint Old City on Tuesday in a march that posed a key test to Israel's new government on its second full day in office. With tensions high amid a month-old ceasefire that ended days of deadly fighting between Israel and Gaza militants, police deployed heavily, using stun grenades and foam-tipped bullets to clear the area of Palestinians. Medics said 33 Palestinians were wounded. The so-called March of the Flags celebrates the anniversary of the city's "re-unification" after Israel captured its east, including the Old City which houses sites holy to all three Abrahamic faiths, in 1967. Outside the Damascus Gate entrance to the ancient walled warren, throngs of mostly young, religious men sang, danced and waved flags triumphantly at a plaza that was cleared of its usual Palestinian crowds. Some revelers chanted of "Death to Arabs" before others quieted them. Student Judah Powers, 24, draped an Israeli flag over his back and said he had come to show "that we have the right as Jews, as Israelis, to walk on every single inch of this city."Far-right lawmakers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich attended the march, hoisted on demonstrators' shoulders. Rallies by ultranationalist Jewish groups in Jerusalem helped spark a police raid into the Al-Aqsa mosque compound last month that triggered the deadliest flare-up of Israeli-Palestinian violence since 2014. Tuesday's demonstration was originally scheduled for early May, but cancelled twice amid police opposition and threats from Hamas, the Islamist group that controls the Palestinian enclave of Gaza.
'Jerusalem is crying'
Israel's new Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's government said organizers had consulted police on the march's route, which avoided the Old City's Muslim Quarter but still took demonstrators to the explosive Damascus Gate before reaching the Western Wall, a holy site for Jews. Police, with more than 2,000 reinforcements, blocked nearby streets and used foam-tipped bullets and stun grenades to disperse Palestinians. AFP reporters saw officers tackle a man and a woman for waving Palestinian flags. Police said 17 people were arrested for disturbing the peace including throwing stones and assaulting police, with two officers needing medical attention. The Old City's usually teeming alleys were empty as shopkeepers, including Palestinian clothing store owner Sameer Asmar, 63, closed their doors. "We are afraid even to walk" in the Old City, he told AFP, voicing doubts police could keep him safe during the march. "I feel very bad," he said. "Jerusalem is crying."The march comes just two days after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was ousted from 12 straight years in power, toppled by an ideologically divided coalition including, for the first time in Israel's history, an Arab party. Bennett is himself a Jewish nationalist but Netanyahu's allies accused the new premiere of treachery for allying with Arabs and the left. Some demonstrators on Tuesday carried signs reading "Bennett the liar". Yair Lapid, the architect of the new government, said on Twitter that he believed the march had to be allowed but that "it's inconceivable how you can hold an Israeli flag and shout, 'Death to Arabs' at the same time....These people are a disgrace to the nation of Israel."Mansour Abbas, whose four-seat Raam Islamic party was vital to the coalition, called Tuesday's march a "provocation" that should have been cancelled.
Ahmed Tibi from the Joint List bloc of Arab opposition parties said his faction had twice asked the government to cancel the march because "the only flag legitimate (at Damascus Gate) and in east Jerusalem is the Palestinian flag."
'Very fragile'
U.N. Middle East peace envoy Tor Wennesland said it was a "very fragile & sensitive" time and urged all sides to avoid threatening a hard-won May 21 ceasefire that ended 11 days of heavy fighting in and around Gaza. Israel's annexation of east Jerusalem is not recognized by most of the international community which says the city's final status should negotiated with the Palestinians -- who claim the city's east as the capital of their future state. The iconic Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in the Old City is Islam's third holiest site and a national symbol for all Palestinians.It is also Judaism's most holy site, where two Jewish temples stood in antiquity. Ahead of the march Tuesday, militants in Gaza sent incendiary balloons over the border. Israeli authorities reported 20 resulting fires near the blockaded enclave. Palestinian demonstrators also set alight tires and hurled rocks at Israeli security forces near checkpoints outside the cities of Bethlehem and Ramallah in the occupied West Bank. When the march was originally announced for last week, senior Hamas official Khalil Hayya warned it could spark a return to violence. Last month's conflict started after Hamas issued a deadline for Israel to remove its security forces from flashpoint areas of east Jerusalem, and then fired a barrage of rockets at Israel when the ultimatum went unheeded. Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip killed 260 Palestinians including some fighters, the Gaza authorities said. In Israel, 13 people were killed, including a soldier, by rockets and missiles fired from Gaza, the police and army said.

New Israel Govt. Vows Change, but Not for Palestinians
Associated Press/June 15, 2021
Israel's fragile new government has shown little interest in addressing the decades-old conflict with the Palestinians, but it may not have a choice.
Jewish ultranationalists are already staging provocations aimed at splitting the coalition and bringing about a return to right-wing rule. In doing so, they risk escalating tensions with the Palestinians weeks after an 11-day Gaza war was halted by an informal cease-fire.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's best hope for maintaining his ruling coalition — which consists of eight parties from across the political spectrum — will be to manage the conflict, the same approach favored by his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, for most of his 12-year rule. But that method failed to prevent three Gaza wars and countless smaller eruptions. That's because the status quo for Palestinians involves expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank, looming evictions in Jerusalem, home demolitions, deadly shootings and an array of discriminatory measures that two well-known human rights groups say amount to apartheid. In Gaza, which has been under a crippling blockade since the Hamas militant group seized power in 2007, it's even worse.
"They talk about it being a government of change, but it's just going to entrench the status quo," said Waleed Assaf, a Palestinian official who coordinates protests against West Bank settlements. "Bennett is a copy of Netanyahu, and he might even be more radical."
Bennett said little about the Palestinians in a speech before being sworn in on Sunday. "Violence will be met with a firm response," he warned, adding that "security calm will lead to economic moves, which will lead to reducing friction and the conflict." Environment Minister Tamar Zandberg, a member of the dovish Meretz party, told Israeli television's Channel 12 that she believes the peace process is important, but that the new government has agreed, "at least at this stage, not to deal with it."
The government faces an early challenge on Jabal Sabeeh, a hilltop in the northern West Bank where dozens of Jewish settlers rapidly established an outpost last month, paving roads and setting up living quarters that they say are now home to dozens of families.
The settlement, named Eviatar after an Israeli who was killed in an attack in 2013, was built without the permission of Israeli authorities on land the Palestinians say is privately owned. Israeli troops have evacuated settlers from the site three times before, but they returned after an Israeli was killed in a shooting attack nearby early last month.
Clearing them out again would embarrass Bennett and other right-wing members of the coalition, who already face fierce criticism — and even death threats — for allying with centrist and left-wing factions to oust Netanyahu. The government faces a similar dilemma over a parade through east Jerusalem organized by ultranationalists that is due to be held Tuesday. The march risks setting off the kind of protests and clashes that helped ignite last month's Gaza war.Meanwhile, Palestinians from the adjacent village of Beita have held regular protests against the settlement outpost. Demonstrators have thrown stones, and Israeli troops have fired tear gas and live ammunition. Three protesters have been killed, including 17-year-old Mohammed Hamayel, who was shot dead Friday. Initial reports said he was 15.
"I always taught him you should stand up for your rights without infringing on the rights of others," his father, Said, said at a mourning event attended by dozens of villagers. He described his son as a popular teenager who got good grades and was a natural leader.
"Thank God, I'm very proud of my son," he said. "Even in martyrdom he distinguished himself." The villagers fear that if the outpost remains, it will eventually swallow up even more of their land, growing and merging with some of the more than 130 authorized settlements across the occupied West Bank, where nearly 500,000 settlers live.
"We're not a political game in the hands of Bennett or Netanyahu," said Mohammed Khabeesa, a resident who says he owns land near the settler outpost that he can no longer access without a military permit. "The settlements are like a cancer," he said. "Everyone knows they begin small, and then they take root and expand at people's expense until they reach our homes."A spokeswoman for the settler organization behind the outpost did not respond to a request for comment. Israel captured the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza in the 1967 Mideast war, territories the Palestinians want for a future state. The settlements are seen by the Palestinians and much of the international community as a major obstacle to peace because they make it nearly impossible to create a contiguous, viable state of Palestine alongside Israel.
Every Israeli government since 1967 has expanded the settlements, and this one is unlikely to be an exception. Bennett briefly served as head of a major settler organization, and his party is one of three in the coalition that strongly support settlements. Hagit Ofran, an expert on settlements with the Israeli rights group Peace Now, says the settlers have always used illegal outposts to challenge Israeli authorities, a trend she expects to accelerate under the new government. "Because the settlers feel this government is not their government, challenging it, psychologically, will be much, much easier," she said.
She hopes the new government will at least put the brakes on larger settlement projects, including massive infrastructure that will pave the way for future growth."I think it's more easy politically to stop big budgets and big projects rather than evicting an outpost," she said. "I would rather see that the government is stopping the big projects rather than fighting over every hilltop. The settlers have the opposite interest."

Netanyahu Defeat Brings Relief, if No Policy Shift, for Biden
Agence France Presse/June 15, 2021
When Joe Biden entered the White House, he waited nearly a month to speak to Benjamin Netanyahu, fueling perceptions he was in no hurry to please the divisive Israeli leader. After Netanyahu was unseated Sunday, the White House fired off a statement in minutes congratulating the new prime minister, Naftali Bennett, with Biden quickly calling and telling him that "Israel has no better friend than the United States."The fall of Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history, is bringing a sigh of relief to many in the Biden administration, who will no longer have to deal with the pugnacious right-winger who had closely allied himself in US politics with the rival Republican Party. But the shift could be more about tone than substance. The new Israeli government is unlikely to take a different view on Iran, a major source of disagreement between Biden's Democratic Party and Netanyahu, and the unwieldiness of the coalition -- which unites Bennett, a staunch supporter of Jewish settlement of the West Bank, with centrists and leftists -- makes prospects slim for any dramatic moves on the Palestinian issue. "Netanyahu played a brazen game of partisan politics in the U.S., and I'm sure it is a relief for the Biden administration to be dealing with a different prime minister -- even if they don't really know what to expect from him yet," said Michele Dunne, director of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "What the Biden administration will hope for is that the government headed by Bennett will manage the U.S.-Israel relationship more quietly and amicably than Netanyahu did, and will also be more careful about avoiding actions in Jerusalem and elsewhere that can inflame relations with Palestinians," she said. Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Center for American Progress, said Netanyahu's downfall could "stabilize the bilateral relationship in important ways in part because of the lack of trust and confidence that existed at a very personal level with Netanyahu.""All of the breathless anxiety about Netanyahu and what he may or may not do looks like it's in the rearview mirror," Katulis said, while noting that Netanyahu -- and those who share his brand of politics -- are sure to remain on the Israeli political scene.
- Rising criticism of Israel -
New Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, a centrist who tenaciously hammered together the new coalition, said Monday that Netanyahu's government had taken "a terrible gamble, reckless and dangerous, to focus exclusively on the Republican Party and abandon Israel's bipartisan standing." In a scenario unthinkable a decade ago, Israel faced strong criticism in Washington over its deadly offensive last month in the Gaza Strip, with the left-wing calling for the $4 billion in annual US military aid to be on the table. Biden, who has long ties to Israel, faced down the pressure and waited a week before nudging Israel for a ceasefire, calculating that public rebukes of Netanyahu could backfire. In his final remarks as prime minister, Netanyahu said that the Biden administration had "asked me not to discuss our disagreement on Iran publicly" but said that he would refuse "on matters that endanger our existence."
Netanyahu -- who, like Bennett, has lived in and is deeply familiar with the United States -- famously circumvented Obama to address the Republican-led Congress in 2015 to denounce the president's diplomacy with Iran. Biden's predecessor Donald Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, a family friend of Netanyahu, rallied behind him and delivered a policy wishlist, including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, giving the green light if Israel sought to annex Palestinian land and trashing the Iran nuclear deal, to which Biden supports a return.
Alliance first -
Natan Sachs, director of the Brooking Institution's Center for Middle East Policy, said the new Israeli government would still have "very strong reservations" about the nuclear accord but may not risk a rupture of relations with Washington. "On substance there actually is not that much divergence, not only between Bennett and Netanyahu but between the whole spectrum of mainstream leaders," Sachs said. "But there is a very big difference between whether they go to political combat with Biden over the return to compliance."On the Palestinian issue, Katulis said that the Biden administration was aware that the ideologically diverse coalition "is not likely to be a formula for any great leaps forward."But Katulis said Biden, ever a pragmatist, could seek practical progress including easing the movement of Palestinian people and products. With the new government, Katulis said, the Biden administration knows "it is not gunning for the Nobel Prize."

Arab states call on UN Security Council to meet over Ethiopian dam
Reuters/June 15, 2021
CAIRO/DUBAI: Arab states are calling on the UN Security Council to discuss the dispute over Ethiopia’s plan to fill a giant dam it is building on the Blue Nile, Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit said after a foreign ministers’ meeting. Ethiopia is pinning its hopes of economic development and power generation on the dam. Egypt relies on the river for as much as 90 percent of its fresh water and sees the dam as a potentially existential threat. Sudan is concerned about the operation of its own Nile dams and water stations. The ministers, meeting in Qatar, agreed on “steps to be taken gradually” to support Egypt and Sudan in the dispute, Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani told the news conference, without giving details. The Arab states called on parties to negotiate seriously and refrain from any unilateral steps that would harm other countries, he added, in an apparent reference to Ethiopia’s plan to complete the second phase of filling the dam in the rainy season. Sudan and Egypt had already agreed this month to work together to push Ethiopia to negotiate on an agreement on filling and operating the dam, after African Union-sponsored talks remained deadlocked. The two countries, which are downstream from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, called on the international community to intervene. Aboul Gheit described the water security of Egypt and Sudan as an integral part of Arab national security. Ethiopia previously has rejected calls from Egypt and Sudan to involve mediators outside the African Union. Sudan on Monday said it was open to a partial interim agreement on the multi-billion-dollar dam, with specific conditions.

Biden names Israel ambassador days after new government
AFP/June 15, 2021
WASHINGTON: President Joe Biden on Tuesday nominated veteran Democratic Party official Thomas Nides to be US ambassador to Israel, filling the post two days after the formation of a new government eager to renew ties. Nides, a former top banker at Morgan Stanley who has spent his adult life in Democratic politics, served in the US State Department when Barack Obama was president and defended funding for the Palestinians. He would mark a sharp departure from the last US ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, a forceful advocate for hawkish Israeli policies who was tapped by former president Donald Trump after serving his company as a bankruptcy lawyer. Nides grew up in a Jewish home in Duluth, Minnesota, where his father was temple president. He is not known as an ideological figure on the Middle East or other issues. While serving as deputy secretary of state for management and resources, Nides fought attempts by Republicans in Congress to stop US funding for the UN agency for Palestinian refugees -- a step taken by Trump but reversed by Biden. Michael Oren, the former Israeli ambassador to Washington, wrote in a 2011 book that Nides once called him to argue passionately - and profanely - against attempts in Congress to defund the UN cultural agency UNESCO after it admitted Palestine as a member state. Nides, Oren wrote, said with colorful language that Israel would not want to defund UNESCO as it has played a role in education about the Holocaust. Nides, whose nomination had been rumored for weeks, needs to be confirmed by the Senate, where the Democrats are narrowly in control. His nomination was announced two days after the fall from power from Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest serving prime minister who had toxic relations with Democrats after he rallied against Obama's Iran policy, rejected moves for a Palestinian state and aligned himself with Republicans. Biden has quickly congratulated Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is a staunch defender of Jewish settlement in the West Bank but governs in coalition with centrists and leftists.

Erdogan, Biden put good face on meeting but contentious issues remain
The Arab Weekly/June 15/2021
BRUSSELS--Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tried to sound upbeat after his first face-to-face talks with US President Joe Biden, Monday in Brussels, though he announced no major breakthroughs in the awkward relationship between the two allies, at odds over Russian weapons, Syria, Libya and other issues. Erdogan characterised his talks with the new US president on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Brussels as “productive and sincere”. “We think that there are no issues within US-Turkey ties and that areas of cooperation for us are richer and larger than problems,” he said. Despite their publicly optimistic tone, neither provided any details on how exactly they would mend the relationship or lay out steps that would help ease tensions between the NATO allies. Turkey, with NATO’s second-largest military, has angered its allies in the Western military alliance by buying Russian surface-to-air missiles and intervening in wars in Syria and Libya. It is also in a standoff with Greece and Cyprus over maritime territory in the Eastern Mediterranean.
As president, Biden has adopted a cooler tone than predecessor Donald Trump towards Erdogan. Biden quickly recognised the 1915 massacre of Armenians as genocide, a position that angers Turkey, and stepped up criticism of Turkey’s human rights record.
Washington has already imposed sanctions over Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missiles. It also expelled Turkey from the F-35 programme under which Western allies produce the next-generation fighter jet’s parts and secure its early purchasing rights. Relations between the two NATO allies nosedived after Turkey’s purchase of a Russian S-400 missile defence system that the US believes can be used to spy on Western defences. Erdogan announced no progress on the S-400 dispute.
“On the issue of S-400s, I told (Biden) the same thing I had in the past,” he said.
“I raised the issue of F-35s,” Erdogan said in a signal that he wanted Turkey admitted back into the programme. “I told him what joint steps we can take on the defence industry.” One area where Erdogan hoped to showcase a central Turkish role in NATO is Afghanistan, where Ankara has offered to guard and operate Kabul airport after US and NATO forces withdraw in coming weeks. NATO head Jens Stoltenberg said Turkey could play a key role but that no decision was made at the Monday summit. At the start of the main leaders’ session at NATO, Biden spoke to Erdogan at length in a small group before they took their seats. Later in the day, the two leaders and their top aides sat mostly silent on opposite sides of a conference table, ignoring questions shouted to them by journalists briefly invited into the room.

Cairo fails to bring together Hamas, Fatah as common ground is elusive
The Arab Weekly/June 15/2021
CAIRO – After a series of separate meetings with Palestinian officials, Egypt has failed in its attempt to organise direct talks to bridge the differences between the two contending factions, Hamas and Fatah. Cairo had postponed the meeting of the rivals, which was scheduled to be held on Saturday. Cairo’s initiative has failed because the both sides refused to make concessions on some major issues. Officials in the Egyptian General Intelligence Service held meetings on Saturday and Sunday with the Islamic Jihad movement led by Ziad al-Nakhala, without the attendance of representatives from Fatah and Hamas. The meetings focused on trying to find a middle ground between Hamas and Fatah positions on the political roadmap to end the Palestinian deadlock. The Islamist Hamas movement insists on forming an interim leadership to run the executive authority and prepare for National Council elections. Fatah, however, prefers the formation of a national unity government. Palestinian sources told The Arab Weekly that the postponement of the factions’ meetings in Cairo came after Hamas rejected three main proposals submitted by the Fatah delegation to Cairo. These proposals were the formation of a national unity government that agrees to the conditions of the International Quartet, including the recognition of the State of Israel; the beginning of the reconstruction process under the full supervision of the Palestinian Authority and the new government once it is formed and a commitment to avoid discussing the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) file at the present time. The same sources indicated that Cairo is trying to find a formula that pushes the Palestinian rivals to meet at the earliest opportunity by pressuring Hamas into taking part in the future national unity government. This drive is out of kilter with the conditions of the International Quartet. In return, the sources said, Hamas can take part in the reconstruction process through its ministers in that government.
The head of the media office of the Mobilisation and Organisation Commission of the Fatah Movement, Munir al-Jaghoub explained that consultations on the Cairo meetings have not stopped. He added that the movement’s delegation, now back from Cairo, is discussing with President Mahmoud Abbas the details of issues raised by all factions. The delegation, Jaghoub revealed, will return to Cairo at the end of this week or early next week. Jaghoub added in a statement to The Arab Weekly that Fatah is waiting for the Egyptians and Hamas to determine the substance of future talks. Fatah, he noted, has expressed its refusal to allow the meetings to turn into mere lectures and sermons. The aim, according to Jaghoub, is to reach consensus, without Fatah making concessions at the expense of its basic unity government line. The most recent Gaza war has strengthened the position of Hamas on the Palestinian political scene. Fatah, however, sees that the war has weakened its own power, though the movement still holds the keys to any future solutions. This factor enables Fatah to try to impose its conditions on Hamas, especially in the wake of international support for the Palestinian Authority and for president Abbas. The Hamas security delegation is reportedly holding unannounced meetings with leaders in the Egyptian intelligence service to arrange a prisoner exchange deal with Israel. This would seem to prove the Islamist movement is determined to use such a deal to consolidate its political gains following the Gaza war. A Hamas military delegation, led by Marwan Issa, chief of staff of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the movement’s military arm, arrived recently in Cairo. This confirms that the prisoners’ swap is still on the table and that Egypt is dealing with it as an issue that should be resolved between Hamas and Israel.
Observers say that Hamas will be keen on the success of the prisoners’ deal, which would include leaders from different factions, in order to pull off yet another political victory over Fatah.

Tunisian court releases media mogul Nabil Karoui
Reuters/June 15, 2021
TUNIS: A Tunisian court on Tuesday released media mogul and former presidential candidate Nabil Karoui after he spent more than six months in custody on money laundering and tax evasion charges, his lawyer and party said. Karoui, the owner of Nessma television channel and head of the Heart of Tunisia political party, the second largest in parliament, was detained in December for a second time for alleged money laundering and tax fraud. Video footage broadcast by local radio Mosaique FM showed Karoui leaving Mornaguia prison, where he found his family and party members waiting outside. In 2019, Karoui beat most candidates to reach a run-off for the presidency despite spending most of the campaign behind bars. He ultimately lost in a landslide to President Kais Saied. His Heart of Tunisia party, which came second only to the moderate Islamist Ennahda in a parliamentary election the same year, has joined with it in giving narrow majority support to Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi’s government, which has been locked in a power struggle with the president.

Algeria's FLN wins most seats in parliament, election authority says
Reuters/June 15, 2021
ALGIERS: Algeria's FLN, long the country's biggest political party, won the most seats in Saturday's parliamentary election, the head of the electoral authority said on Tuesday. Fewer than a third of registered voters took part in the election, which the long dominant establishment had seen as part of its strategy to move beyond two years of mass protests and political turmoil. The protests that erupted in 2019 demanded the ousting of the ruling elite, an end to corruption and the army's withdrawal from politics. While authorities praised the demonstrations as a moment of national renewal, they also cracked down with arrests. "The dynamic of peaceful change that was launched (with the protests) is being strengthened," electoral authority head Mohamed Chorfi said, referring to the election. The FLN's 105 seats were far short of the 204 needed to secure a majority in the 407-seat parliament, with the Islamist MSP winning 64 seats, another former ruling coalition party, the RND, winning 57, and independent candidates taking 78 seats. However, most of the elected members of parliament are expected to support President Abdelmadjid Tebboune's programme, including economic reforms. Islamist parties had hoped to benefit from the unrest of the past two years of protests that pushed the veteran president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, from office and led to the jailing of numerous senior officials. But the biggest difference from previous elections was the much larger number of independents winning seats in parliament, with Islamists retaining about the same share as previously. The leaderless "Hirak" mass protest movement boycotted the vote, as it had the 2019 election that installed Tebboune in place of Bouteflika. Hirak has said any vote that takes place while the current establishment remains in place, and while the army interferes in politics, cannot be fair. While elections before Hirak's rise had higher official turnout figures, they were still often marked by a large number of abstentions. The make-up of the new parliament is expected to shape the next government, which will face a looming economic crisis with Algeria having spent more than four fifths of its foreign currency reserves since 2013.

Biden Lands in Geneva ahead of Putin Summit
Agence France Presse/June 15/2021
U.S. President Joe Biden arrived in Geneva on Tuesday ahead of his first summit with Vladimir Putin, as tensions between Moscow and Washington stand at their highest in years. Biden flew in to Geneva at 4:16 pm (1416 GMT) on the last leg of his first foreign trip as president, after mending relations with Washington's closest allies during G7 and NATO summits in Britain and Brussels. He arrived in Geneva on the eve of the first meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders since 2018, when Putin met Biden's predecessor Donald Trump in Helsinki. Biden was greeted on the Geneva Airport tarmac by Swiss President Guy Parmelin, flanked by the heads of the Geneva cantonal and city authorities and U.S. diplomats based in the city.  After handshakes and a few brief exchanges, he climbed into his armored limousine known as "The Beast" and was whisked off to the five-star Intercontinental Hotel, just a mile (1.6 kilometers) away. Switzerland has launched a massive security operation to ensure the safety of Biden, Putin and their large entourages, deploying around 4,000 police, troops and security personnel to guard the summit from all angles. The summit venue, the La Grange villa and its surrounding park, has been ringed with two kilometers of barbed wire-topped security fencing. Several blocks around Biden's hotel, near the United Nations' European headquarters, were also blocked off with barbed-wire fencing. The international city, which on Tuesday was flying U.S. and Russian flags on its main bridge crossing the end of the picturesque Lake Geneva, is well accustomed to hosting heads of state and other dignitaries. But such showpiece summits are rare -- the last time leaders from Washington and Moscow met in the neutral country was back in 1985, when U.S. president Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev met each other for the first time. Wednesday's summit comes as Washington and Moscow find themselves at loggerheads over a long list of disputes -- from cyber-attacks and election meddling to the jailing of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny and designation of his organizations as "extremist" groups. Expectations for the talks are low, with officials on both sides repeatedly saying the two leaders are unlikely to find much common ground.

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 15-16/2021
‘Racist,’ ‘Xenophobe,’ ‘Tyrant’: Hungarian PM Slandered for Speaking the Truth on Islam
Raymond Ibrahim/June 15/2021
Criticism against Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is again on the rise, now that his nation is set to take the presidency of the Visegrad group of Central European nations next month. According a recent report, “Britain’s government has condemned comments made by Viktor Orbán about Muslims and migrants on the eve of a bilateral meeting between the Hungarian leader and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In a statement, No. 10 Downing Street said that Orbán’s 2018 comment to a German newspaper about ‘Muslim invaders’ and his later description of migrants as ‘a poison’ were ‘divisive and wrong’.”
In fact, Orbán’s ultimate motive is to secure his nation against the crimes and problems that come along with Muslim migrants. Speaking back in 2015, during the heyday of mass Muslim migration into Europe, he clearly laid out his logic:
Those [migrants] arriving [into Europe] have been raised in another religion, and represent a radically different culture. Most of them are not Christians, but Muslims. This is an important question, because Europe and European identity is rooted in Christianity…. We don’t want to criticize France, Belgium, any other country, but we think all countries have a right to decide whether they want to have a large number of Muslims in their countries. If they want to live together with them, they can. We don’t want to and I think we have a right to decide that we do not want a large number of Muslim people in our country. We do not like the consequences of having a large number of Muslim communities that we see in other countries, and I do not see any reason for anyone else to force us to create ways of living together in Hungary that we do not want to see….
The prime minister went on to invoke history—and not in the politically correct way (to condemn Christians and whitewash Muslims) but according to reality:
I have to say that when it comes to living together with Muslim communities, we are the only ones who have experience because we had the possibility to go through that experience for 150 years.
Orbán was referring to Islam’s conquest and occupation of Hungary from 1541 to 1699. Then, Islamic jihad, terrorism, and Christian persecution were rampant.
Indeed, on this very day in history, on June 15, 1389, the pivotal Battle of Kosovo took place: the invading Muslim Turks met and crushed a coalition of Serbs, Hungarians, Poles, and Romanians at Kosovo. Thereafter, much of southeastern Europe, including Hungary, and portions of modern day Russia were conquered, occupied, and terrorized by the Turks—sometimes in ways that make Islamic State atrocities seem like child’s play. (Think of the beheadings, crucifixions, massacres, slave markets, and rapes that have become IS trademarks—but on a much grander scale, and for centuries.)
Still, to Western “progressives,” such histories and the lessons they impart are meaningless. Thus, in an article titled “Hungary has been shamed by Viktor Orbán’s government,” the Guardian mocked and trivialized the prime minister’s position:
Hungary has a history with the Ottoman empire, and Orbán is busy conjuring it. The Ottoman empire is striking back, he warns. They’re taking over! Hungary will never be the same again!… Hence the wire; hence the army; hence, as from today, the state of emergency; hence the fierce, unrelenting rhetoric of hatred. Because that is what it has been from the very start: sheer, crass hostility and slander.
Similarly, after acknowledging that Hungary was once occupied by the Ottomans—though without any mention of the atrocities it experienced—the Washington Post complained that “it’s somewhat bizarre to think this rather distant past of warlords and rival empires ought to influence how a 21st century nation addresses the needs of refugees.”
Unable, or rather unwilling, to appreciate the continuity of Islam’s history with the West—many Muslims in Europe, including migrants, maintain their ancestors’ hostility for “infidels”—the so-called “mainstream media” fall back to default: they accuse Orbán of being a “racist,” “xenophobic,” a man “full of hate speech,” and Europe’s “creeping dictator.” Sounding like the mafia boss of the Left, the Guardian simply refers to him as a “problem” that needs to be “solved.”
If this is how politicians who speak truthfully and implement policies that secure their nations are treated, is it any wonder that so very few politicians bother doing so?

What the West Can Learn from China's War on India
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/June 15/2021
China's border actions against India have been described as a "salami tactic". China seems to be seeking to dominate territory through incremental operations too small to attract international attention and not large enough to spark an actual war with India -- but sufficient to accumulate real results over time in the form of gained territory. It is similar to the tactic China has been using in the South China Sea.
For this purpose, China uses gray-zone warfare, a maneuver at which the country has become expert, especially against Taiwan. The concept entails actions that fall just short of war -- others have termed it "indirect war" -- but the purpose is the same: to overcome resistance -- or a perceived enemy -- by inducing exhaustion.
"Overall, China's increasing ties to the Indian Ocean and beyond have expanded enormously over the past two decades.... Crucially... it appears that China does intend to develop some sort of Indian Ocean force." — Christopher Colley, Wilson Center, Washington D.C., April 2, 2021
"If India is weakened militarily and economically... its value as a counterweight to China and the broader U.S. goal of countering China's regional influence would also be undermined." — Daniel S. Markey, Council on Foreign Relations, April 19, 2021.
One year after China ordered an attack on the disputed border between India and China in the Himalayas --which deteriorated into a situation in which 20 Indian soldiers and several Chinese soldiers were killed -- tension along the border remains high. Pictured: An Indian army convoy drives towards Leh, on a highway bordering China, on June 19, 2020 in Gagangir, India. (Photo by Yawar Nazir/Getty Images)
One year after China ordered an attack on the disputed border between India and China in the Himalayas -- which deteriorated into a situation in which 20 Indian soldiers and several Chinese soldiers were killed -- tension along the border remains high.
"China's occupation since May 2020 of contested border areas is the most serious escalation in decades and led to the first lethal border clash between the two countries since 1975," according to the "2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community," published on April 9, 2021 by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Military tensions between China and India go back nearly six decades to the 1962 Sino-Indian war, when China began attacking India. Although relations subsequently improved, the shadow of the war remains partly in the form of disagreement between the two countries about where the exact border -- or the Line of Actual Control (LAC), as it is called -- is located.
In January, China reportedly withdrew nearly 10,000 soldiers from depth areas on its side of the LAC while keeping front-line soldiers in place. Despite 11 rounds of talks -- the latest on April 9 -- de-escalation remains elusive. China refuses to disengage from two friction points in Hot Springs and Gogra.
In May, Indian Army Chief General MM Naravane told Indian troops to keep a watch on Chinese activities along the LAC. China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has reportedly begun annual war drills in "in-depth areas... located 100 to 250-km from the Line of Actual Control (LAC)."
China's border actions against India have been described as a "salami tactic". China seems to be seeking to dominate territory through incremental operations too small to attract international attention and not large enough to spark an actual war with India -- but sufficient to accumulate real results over time in the form of gained territory. It is similar to the tactic China has been using in the South China Sea.
China, in its apparent ambition to become the world's dominant power, seems intent on bullying neighboring India into submission in areas where the two countries disagree. For this purpose, China uses gray-zone warfare, a maneuver at which the country has become expert, especially against Taiwan. The concept entails actions that fall just short of war -- others have termed it "indirect war" -- but the purpose is the same: to overcome resistance -- or a perceived enemy -- by inducing exhaustion.
"The indirect-war elements are conspicuous in China's actions against India," wrote Brahma Chellaney, author of Water, Peace, and War, recently in Foreign Affairs.
"China has steadily brought Indian security under pressure through unconventional instruments, including cyberattacks, its reengineering of the cross-border flows of rivers, and its nibbling away at disputed Himalayan territories. It seeks to employ all available means short of open war to curtail Indian ambitions and strike at core Indian interests."
India is one of the world's most cyber-attacked countries and China is one of its primary attackers. Last June, for instance, the border clash between Chinese and Indian military forces reportedly resulted in a 200% increase in cyber-attacks from China, with hackers targeting ministries, media organizations and large businesses. June 2020, according to Brahma Chellaney, "saw at least 40,300 attempts to inject malware into Indian networks."
"Indian officials understood these efforts as a stern warning from Xi regime's: if India did not stand down in the border confrontation, China would turn off the lights across vast expanses of the country. India surged troops to the border in the following months, and in October, Mumbai went dark."
The October blackout in Mumbai, which China was reportedly behind, lasted several hours and shut down hospitals and halted trains.
"China is capable of launching cyber-attacks on us that can disrupt a large amount of our systems," General Bipin Rawat, India's highest ranking armed forces official, told reporters on April 7. "While we're trying to create firewalls against cyber attacks, we're quite sure that they [Chinese hackers] will break through these firewalls." China has also conducted cyber-attacks on India's pharmaceutical industry, particularly its vaccine facilities.
India has additional reason for concern due to China's close alliance with Pakistan. It has been a long-time hostile neighbor, despite the 2021 India-Pakistan cease-fire declaration, which suspended hostilities along the disputed India-Pakistan border in Kashmir. Pakistan is an ally of China from way back; in December, the two countries signed a military memorandum of understanding to boost their already close military relations. According to China's Minister of Defense, General Wei Fenghe:
"We should push the mil-to-mil relationship to a higher level, so as to jointly cope with various risks and challenges, firmly safeguard the sovereignty and security interests of the two countries, and safeguard the regional peace and stability."
China is Pakistan's primary supplier of military equipment -- 73% of Pakistan's arms purchases in the years 2015-19 reportedly came from China. According to a recent analysis by the Council on Foreign Relations:
"Any future India-Pakistan conflict is more likely to implicate China because Beijing's strategic embrace of Islamabad has tightened in recent years. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is delivering tens of billions of dollars in Chinese infrastructure investments to Pakistan, including in territories claimed by India. Rather than urging restraint from both India and Pakistan in their 2019 crisis, Beijing accepted Islamabad's position that it needed to escalate the conflict to deter future Indian aggression."
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) -- a way for China to expand its global influence by making countries economically dependent on it, often through "debt trap diplomacy" (loans countries find themselves unable to repay other than through giving up national assets, such as land or ports) -- also serves as a way to "encircle" India, bringing more countries of the region into China's orbit.
Almost all of India's neighboring countries are part of China's Belt and Road Initiative – some more, some less: Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal and Myanmar. India, on the other hand, has refused to endorse the Belt and Road Initiative. According to Hindustan Times:
"India has repeatedly said it will not join BRI because it does not offer a level playing ground to the country's businesses. It has also opposed BRI because a key component – the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – passes through PoK [the disputed region of Kashmir]".
Finally, for the past two decades, China has been making inroads into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Approximately 80% of China's imported oil and 95% of China's trade with the Middle East, Africa, and Europe passes through the Indian Ocean. "More importantly from Beijing's perspective, this region is controlled by Chinese rivals: the United States and India", wrote Christopher Colley of Washington's Wilson Center.
"Overall, China's increasing ties to the Indian Ocean and beyond have expanded enormously over the past two decades... Chinese analysts and government entities are increasingly calling for some form of Indian Ocean fleet/force that can protect and project China's interests. Crucially, based on the available evidence consisting of port infrastructure projects, various statements from the government and China-based scholars/analysts, as well as new naval hardware, it appears that China does intend to develop some sort of Indian Ocean force. While China will never establish full sea control in the Indian Ocean, it will likely possess the ability to provide a credible deterrent to other states that may threaten Chinese sea lines of communication or entities. However, while China increasingly has the surface combatants to conduct meaningful power projection in the Indian Ocean and has even carried out live-fire exercises in the northern Indian Ocean, critically the PLAN lacks the requisite protection of air power."
"From a security perspective," wrote Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan Director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology (CSST) in New Delhi in January, "since independence, India has not faced any significant maritime threat."
"Much of the Indian maritime security focus was in terms of the relatively minor naval threat from Pakistan and non-traditional threats including piracy and terrorism. While these concerns remain, they have been overtaken by worries about China as an emerging IOR power, with a growing footprint in the region...
"India has multiple concerns about China in the Indian Ocean. One, already alive, is Chinese activities in India's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Speaking earlier this year, Indian Navy Chief Admiral Karambir Singh said that both Chinese research vessels and fishing boats have been seen in Indian Ocean, including in the Indian EEZ."
The persistence of military tension between China and India is, further, problematic, for the United States. According to Daniel S. Markey of the Council on Foreign Relations:
"Aside from potentially drawing the United States into such a confrontation, conflict between China and India would threaten to disrupt the global economy, undermine regional development, and have considerable humanitarian consequences depending on its eventual scale. If India is weakened militarily and economically in the process, its value as a counterweight to China and the broader U.S. goal of countering China's regional influence would also be undermined."
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Afghan translators of departing foreign forces face a mortal danger: Taliban retaliation
Sayed Salahuddin/Arab News/June 15/2021
KABUL: Back in the spring of 2013, Tajik Mohammed was enjoying his leave in the small garden of his family home in the lush village of Kapisa when he learnt that the Taliban had put him on a blacklist. His crime? He was working as a translator for the US military.
Under cover of night, the high-school graduate was forced to flee 110 kilometers south to Kabul, the Afghan capital, where he has remained ever since. His family followed after the Taliban “threw a hand grenade one day” at their house, thinking he was there.
Mohammed, 32, worked for American troops in restive Ghazni province, which lies on the main highway leading to the Taliban’s bastion of support in the south.
He subsequently lost his job for failing to return to duty on time because he could not travel by air from Kapisa to Ghazni. He pointed out that if he had taken the trip by road, the Taliban would have killed him.
He and thousands like him are living in fear. In April, US President Joe Biden announced that he would be withdrawing the estimated 3,500 American troops stationed in Afghanistan by September, 20 years after the Al-Qaeda attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C. Officials at the US embassy said they could not provide data on the percentage of applicants who had been turned down for special immigration visas or the number of former translators and employees who had been killed over the years. (AFP)
The withdrawals started on May 1. Departing with the American forces are their NATO allies and thousands of foreign military contractors. They leave behind those Afghans who have worked as translators, cooks, cleaners, and guards. Many are fearful that the militants will seek retaliation.
US-led efforts to reconcile the Taliban with the government of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in Kabul have not borne fruit since talks began in Qatar last year.
Last week the Taliban, a grouping of mainly Pashtun militants who harbored Osama bin Laden and ruled Afghanistan for five years until 2001, said that they no longer considered the former employees of foreign forces as “foes.” But the militants noted that the workers needed to show “remorse” and should not use “danger” as an excuse to bolster their push for a “fake asylum case.”
In the past, the Taliban openly preached that Afghan translators should be killed. “You are a legitimate target for the Taliban even if you have served for one day for the foreign forces. I have no faith in the Taliban’s promise,” Mohammed told Arab News.
“Who killed so many journalists and civil society activists? Of course, (it was) the Taliban. But they did not take responsibility for them. We risked our lives while working for the foreign forces and now that they are leaving, there is no guarantee at all for our future and we face risk again,” he said. Mohammed is a member of the Afghans Left Behind Association (ALBA), a union of 2,000 former translators and workers. The group was recently formed with the purpose of highlighting the voices and concerns of those who say they will be targeted once NATO forces leave.
Last week, ALBA held its first large-scale gathering under tight security in Kabul. A number of the former translators wore masks to protect their identities. No One Left Behind, an American non-profit organization that advocates for the relocation of Afghan interpreters to the US, said that according to US media reports more than 300 translators or their relatives had been killed since 2014.
Omid Mahmoodi, an ALBA press officer, said the Taliban killed at least one member of the union, named as Sohail Pardis, as he was driving in Khost province in southeastern Afghanistan, near the border with Pakistan.
Another translator said he had moved to Kabul from his native Nangarhar province after receiving a threatening telephone call, naming him as an “apostate” who “deserved to be killed.” Thousands have submitted applications for special immigration visas (SIVs) which allow them to emigrate to the US. Successful applicants need to prove that they served with US forces for at least two years and demonstrate that they provided “faithful and valuable service.”This is usually attested by US military officers in the form of a letter of recommendation. Successful applicants typically also need to show that they have received evidence that they had been threatened. Those who are unsuccessful often lack documentation or are the subject of “derogatory information.”
The translators have been the eyes and ears for American troops and accompanied them during military campaigns against the Taliban and other militants. They have helped with the arrests of insurgents as well as the controversial searching of homes.
They have also acted as cultural advisers in what is a highly conservative society, helping foreign troops understand tribal, ethnic, and religious sensitivities, while in addition coordinating with Afghan forces. Mohammed has recently applied for an SIV at the American embassy in Kabul. Thousands of translators from Afghanistan and Iraq have relocated to America using this mechanism as a reward for helping the US troops. “The answer I got through an embassy email asked me why I was terminated, where my recommendation letters were, etc,” he said. “But the people we worked with in the US military have gone home, changed their addresses and even their profession, so it is tough for us to get hold of them, get the answers and pass them to the embassy here.”
Officials at the US embassy said they could not provide data on the percentage of applicants who had been turned down for an SIV or the number of former translators and employees who had been killed over the years.
Feraidoon, a 28-year-old former translator in Ghazni, told Arab News that he had had his SIV rejected in 2015 but had recently applied again. “The embassy says I do not have sufficient recommendation letters. We have no trust in the Taliban and see no commitment in them because they consider us as traitors, sell-outs and spies,” he said.
Mohammed Basir, 46, who worked for five years with French troops in Kapisa until 2013, said he had appeared in press conferences while translating on TV and had become a “known face” and feared reprisal. “The Taliban will spare no time to behead us if they capture people like me,” he added.
The Taliban said those who worked with foreign forces needed to show “remorse” and should not use “danger” as an excuse to bolster their push for a “fake asylum case.”
A number of former translators whose cases were denied in the past have fled Afghanistan, according to ALBA. Akhtar Mohammed Shirzai escaped to India in 2013 with his family. He has been living there since in the hope that he will be able settle in a coalition country because he served with NATO’s media branch.
He applied for an SIV from India in 2016 but was rejected because he did not have a letter of recommendation from his superiors in Kabul. He applied again in May and is now waiting anxiously. On the Taliban’s offer of an amnesty, Shrizai said: “I heard about it, but I personally do not believe in that because the Taliban are not monolithic. There are different groups with different ideologies and thinking among them.”
In Kabul, Ayazuddin Hilal, who worked for American forces in a number of regions, said the former translators “could not attend wedding ceremonies or funerals back in their villages and even in secure areas where they live. Residents of the area do not treat them well because of their service for the foreign forces.”He noted that a friend and colleague had also wanted to move to Kabul because of security threats in Nangarhar but was killed by a bomb blast. “I hope the politicians in the US and other capitals take a wise decision on our fate,” he added.

High voter turnout out vital for Iran’s sham election
Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/June 15/2021
For many observers, Iran’s Presidential elections have ended before they even started. Scheduled for June 18, little surprises are expected from the 13th election since the formation of the Islamic Republic back in 1979. The most prominent candidate is the incumbent Chief of Justice, and runner up against the current President Hassan Rouhani, Ebrahim Raisi.
The Iranian electoral system is one of a kind. It is the only country in the world where a popularly elected president (regardless of the constraints put on candidacy) cannot officially hold office unless approved by a non- elected cleric.
The President’s office is the weakest institution in Iran, and has been since the current constitution’s inception in 1979. The power of the clergy is growing.
The Revolutionary Guard also has a high level of control running a network of military, economic and financial institutions. Its power is only second to the Supreme Leader.
It’s claimed that Raisi - described as an ultra-conservative hardliner – was one of several Iranian officials responsible for mass prison killings in the country in 1988, according to a 2018 Amnesty International Report.
The President elect is a forgone conclusion, and there is talk that he is next in line to become the heir to 82-year old Ali Khamenei, who himself was President of the Republic before he succeeded Imam Khomeini.
In Iran voting centers, ballots, electoral committees, the needed stationaries and all other operational requirements are in place, as in most countries around the world. The window dressing will not discard the fact that these are sham elections similar to the one held in Syria a couple of weeks ago which led to the re-election of Bashar Assad with 95 percent of the votes.
The only difference here is that Iranians are more professional in setting the theater as if there are real elections taking place: voting age is allowed for 18-year olds, with multiple candidates running and televised political debates as seen in other countries.
But, the process of screening candidates by the “Guardian Council” is by itself a pre-designed plan to oust any potential trouble-makers that might possess views not in full harmony and compliance with the orientations of the Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (C) flashes the sign for victory at the Interior Ministry's election headquarters as candidates begin to sign up for the upcoming presidential elections in Tehran on April 12, 2017. Ahmadinejad had previously said he would not stand after being advised not to by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying he would instead support his former deputy Hamid Baghaie who also registered on Wednesday. (Stock image)
When a former President and a former Parliament Speaker (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani) are not granted permission to join the race it illustrates the farce the election is. How can a person be eligible at one point in time to run the country for two consecutive four-year terms and then deemed unqualified? Needless to say, the Guardian Council never felt the urge to explain to the public or to the candidates themselves the criteria upon which some candidates are qualified and others are not.
It’s clear that screening candidates is easy, but the real challenge for the Iranian regime is not who will win the election, but instead the volume of votes counted.
The higher the turnout, the easier it becomes for the regime to boost its legitimacy. This is a paradox to what’s witnessed on the ground with a growing number of street protests and discontent, an ailing economy and unemployment rates hitting over 12 percent of the 86 million population.
The country has not witnessed any economic growth since 2017 with American sanctions hitting hard.
Low voter turnout will reflect the high degree of dissatisfaction of the Iranian people. The February 2020 parliamentary elections saw a record low turnout since the formation of the Islamic Republic. Total voting did not exceed 41 percent with an unprecedented number of voters in Tehran as low as 22 percent.
The challenge for the regime is to reverse this turnout in the upcoming Presidential elections.
Tehran hopes to complete its talks in Vienna as soon as possible with the aim for the international community to lift sanctions. If the conclusion favors Iran, the badly need revenues generated from exports and inward investment will be pumped into the Iranian economy to boost much needed development and infrastructure or squandered on militias across the region. Tehran will stick to its hardline policies as schemed by its Supreme Leader who runs the show backstage.No change in Iranian people’s lives will change with the new president in office, regardless if it isn’t Raisi.