English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 21/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the
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http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews21/english.july21.21.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Woe to you! For you are like unmarked
graves, and people walk over them without realizing it
Luke 11/42-46: “‘But woe to you Pharisees! For you
tithe mint and rue and herbs of all kinds, and neglect justice and the love of
God; it is these you ought to have practised, without neglecting the others.Woe
to you Pharisees! For you love to have the seat of honour in the synagogues and
to be greeted with respect in the market-places. Woe to you! For you are like
unmarked graves, and people walk over them without realizing it.’One of the
lawyers answered him, ‘Teacher, when you say these things, you insult us too.’
And he said, ‘Woe also to you lawyers! For you load people with burdens hard to
bear, and you yourselves do not lift a finger to ease them.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on July 20-21/2021
MoPH: 632 new coronavirus cases, 1 death
Ministry of Economy officially sets new bread bundle price
2 Rockets Fired at Israel from Lebanon Drawing Artillery Response
Is Iran behind Lebanon rocket fire – and is this the new normal?
PM Bennett: We won't tolerate rocket fire from Lebanon
Lebanese Prosecutor Summons Salameh over Graft Allegations
Diab condemns terrorist attack in Iraq
LIC Reacts to Resignation of Lebanon’s Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri
In Lebanon, the Wheels of Justice Do Not Grind/David Schenker/The Washington
Institute/July 20/2021
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
July 20-21/2021
Israeli airstrikes reported south of Aleppo - Syrian media
In meeting with Abdullah, Biden expresses support for two-state solution
Has Iran launched a new stealth missile boat?
Iran's daily new coronavirus infections hit another high
Security forces open fire during Iran water protests to ‘protect’ protesters:
Fars
News Alert: Jeff Bezos just went to space and back
White House reviewing Section 230 amid efforts to push social media giants to
crack down on misinformation
Trump ally Tom Barrack charged with acting as an agent of a foreign government
Cyprus talks can resume only on two-state basis, Erdogan says
Iraq Bombing Claimed by IS Kills Nearly 30 on Eve of Eid Holiday
India's Covid Deaths 10 Times Higher than Reported, Study Says
Knife attack against Mali interim President Assimi Goita
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC
English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
July 20-21/2021
Arabs Warn Biden: The War on Terrorism is
not Over/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/July 20, 2021
Manufacturing 'Islamophobia': Denari Duffner's Deep Dive/Andrew E. Harrod/The
American Spectator/July 20/2021
Serbia has its reasons for sending ambassador to Syria/Vuk Vuksanovic/Al-Monitor/July
20/2021
New Israeli government on mission to rehabilitate ties with Jordan/Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/July
20/2021
Will Raisi follow Zarif’s path for reviving Iran nuclear deal?/Mark
Fitzpatrick/Al-Monitor/July 20/2021
Countering Iran with Iraq and Israel playing ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’/Rami
Rayess/Al Arabiya/20 July ,2021
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 20-21/2021
MoPH: 632 new coronavirus cases, 1
death
NNA/July 20/2021
Lebanese has recorded 632 new coronavirus cases and one more death in the past
24 hours, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health on Tiesday.
Ministry of Economy officially sets new bread bundle price
NNA/July 20/2021
The Ministry of Economy has officially set the price of a new package of bread
at 883 grams, from the bakery to the consumer at 4,250 Lebanese pounds, and from
the store to the consumer at 4,500 Lebanese pounds. This decision came on
Tuesday after the rise of the global wheat prices, and based on the
manufacturing, distribution, and sales cost, as well as in view of the high
exchange rate of the USD against the LBP. The price and weight of Lebanese
“white” bread has become as follows: From the bakery to the consumer: a large
size bundle, with a weight of not less than 883 grams, at a price of 4250 L.L.
max. A medium-sized bundle, with a weight of not less than 408 grams, at a price
of 2,750 LBP. max. In the store to the consumer: a large size bundle, with a
weight of not less than 883 grams, at a price of 4500 L.L. max.
A medium-sized bundle, with a weight of not less than 408 grams, at a price of
3000 LL. max.
2 Rockets Fired at Israel from Lebanon Drawing Artillery Response
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/July 20/2021
Israel shelled south Lebanon early Tuesday in response to an earlier rocket
attack, the Israeli army said, as the United Nations urged all sides to show
"maximum restraint."The Israeli army said "two rockets were fired from Lebanon
into Israeli territory," with one intercepted by air defenses while the other
struck open ground. "In response, a short while ago (Israeli) artillery struck
in Lebanese territory," the army said. A Lebanese security source told AFP the
rockets were fired at Israel from the Qlaileh area of southern Lebanon, where a
third rocket was also found. The source said the Lebanese Army had not
identified the group responsible for the launch. The U.N. peacekeeping force in
the border region, UNIFIL, said it had boosted security in the area and
"launched an investigation" in collaboration with the Lebanese military. "UNIFIL
is in direct contact with the parties to urge maximum restraint and avoid
further escalation," it said in a statement. The last time rockets were fired
from Lebanon into Israel was in May, during an 11-day conflict between Israel
and Palestinian armed groups in the Gaza Strip. In recent weeks, Israeli
security officials have expressed growing concern over the deepening economic
crisis in Lebanon and its ramifications for border security. Defense Minister
Benny Gantz tweeted: "The state of Lebanon is responsible for the rockets fired
overnight, as it allows terrorists to operate within its territory.""We will not
allow the social, political and economic crisis in Lebanon to turn into a
security threat to Israel. I call on the international community to take action
to restore stability in Lebanon," Gantz added. The incident came hours after a
Syrian military official said Israel carried out airstrikes near the northern
Syrian city of Aleppo. The Syrian state news agency said air defenses
intercepted most of the missiles in the attack.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor that has
activists on the ground in Syria, said the Israeli strikes targeted weapons
depots belonging to Iranian-backed militant groups operating in the region.
Israel has carried out scores of airstrikes in Syria in recent years targeting
Iranian forces there, and attacking what Israel says are weapons shipments bound
for Iran-backed Hizbullah in Lebanon. The Israeli military rarely comments on
these strikes.
Is Iran behind Lebanon rocket fire – and is this the new normal?
Jerusalem Post/July 20/2021
We may see more rocket fire from Lebanon in the next months and years ascribed
to Palestinian groups in order to give Hezbollah and Iran plausible deniability.
Rockets were fired from Lebanon into Israel in a new escalation early Tuesday
morning. Sirens sounded in the Western Galilee at around 4 a.m., and two rockets
were detected. The last time rockets were fired from Israel’s northern neighbor
was during the recent Gaza war, when four were fired on May 19.
Although the Iron Dome air-defense system shot down one of the rockets and the
other fell harmlessly in Tuesday’s attack, it raises questions about whether
rocket fire from Lebanon will now increase and become an accepted norm.
The IDF responded to the attack by using artillery fire, it said, adding that
Home Front Command special guidelines have not been issued. This appears to mean
the assessment is that there won’t be new barrages soon, it wasn’t part of a
major attack, and more retaliation may not take place so as not to increase
tensions. In May, during the fighting in the Gaza Strip, there were several
incidents in the North. Besides the four rockets fired on May 19, several of
which traveled many kilometers into Israel, there was also an incident on May
17, when sirens sounded in Kibbutz Misgav Am and six failed launches were
detected. In response, IDF artillery forces fired toward the launch sources.
On May 13, “three rockets were fired from Lebanon into the Mediterranean Sea off
the coast of the Galilee,” the IDF said. “According to protocol, no sirens were
sounded.” In addition, there have been other incidents. The IDF has had to deal
with drone threats from the North, including one that entered Israel in May from
Syria, attempts to damage the security fence and a smuggling operation that was
thwarted in early July.
The new rocket fire came hours after Syrian regime media reported airstrikes in
As-Safira in northern Syria, an area near Aleppo that is thought to have a
missile facility. Syrian air defenses were activated as a result. Was the rocket
fire from Lebanon in response to the airstrikes?
“I think the rocket launches from Lebanon [early Tuesday] did not take place
because of the international situation in Lebanon, which is collapsing
[economically], but due to the Hamas-Iran-Hezbollah alliance and in the wake of
the Guardian of the Walls [operation in Gaza in May],” said Sarit Zehavi, CEO
and founder of the Alma Research and Education Center, which focuses on security
challenges on the northern border. During the May fighting, groups in the
region that are linked to Iran and often call themselves a “resistance axis”
said they would join in fighting against Israel based on the situation in
Jerusalem, she said in an interview. This could include Hamas, Hezbollah, the
Houthis and militias in Syria and Iraq, she said, adding: “They are all
subordinate to the Iranians, who created this campaign.” Hezbollah leader Hassan
Nasrallah met the leader of Hamas in late June, Zehavi said. The symbols at that
meeting, such as the Dome of Rock in Jerusalem, indicate their view of the
region and their decision to confront Israel, she said. This means the rocket
launches from Lebanon may be a “new reality,” she added.
The result of the recent fire appears to illustrate that whereas Hezbollah was
deterred from most attacks like this since 2006, the Palestinian factions in
Lebanon that are now working with Hezbollah are not constrained. “We see that
the Iranians are keeping their promise regarding what happened on the Temple
Mount on Sunday,” Zehavi said, referring to recent clashes during Tisha Be’av
and Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice). It may be that in the coming
months and years we will see more rocket fire from Lebanon ascribed to
Palestinian groups. This gives Hezbollah and Iran plausible deniability because
they can pretend it is just Palestinians “reacting.” But the reality is that no
one fires rockets from Lebanon without Hezbollah’s approval. In the wider
context, this may mean approval or orders even came directly from Tehran.
PM Bennett: We won't tolerate rocket fire from Lebanon
The Jerusalem Post/July 20/2021
Two rockets were fired from south Lebanon towards Israel early Tuesday morning,
IDF responded with tank fire.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett warned on Tuesday that Israel would not tolerate
rocket fire from Lebanon, a country that is on the verge of collapse after two
rockets were fired early in the morning.
“I say this sharply and clearly: We will not allow harm to Israel’s sovereignty
and security. Whoever tries to harm us will pay a painful price,” Bennett said
during a visit to the Galilee town of Ma’alot-Tarshiha several hours after the
rocket fire.
“Lebanon is on the verge of collapse, like any country in which Iran bases
itself. Its citizens were taken hostage by [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali]
Khamenei and [Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan] Nasrallah for the sake of
Iranian interests,” he said, adding that “this is unfortunate, but we will not
accept a spillover of the situation in Lebanon into Israel.”The two rockets were
fired at northern Israel from Lebanon at around 4 AM Tuesday morning, setting
off incoming rocket sirens in communities along the border including Rosh
Hanikra, Shlomi, Kabri and Hanita.
The IDF said it responded with tank shells towards the Wadi Hamoul valley where
the rockets had been fired from. Defense Minister Benny Gantz said that Lebanon
was responsible for the rocket fire.
"The one responsible for the night shooting is the Lebanese state, which allows
terrorist acts from inside its territory. The State of Israel will act in the
face of any threat to its sovereignty and its citizens and will respond in
accordance with its interests, at the relevant time and place."
The attack came several hours after clashes on the Temple Mount between Israel
Police and Muslim protesters on the Jewish holiday of Tisha Ba’av and ahead of
the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha.
In May, during Operation Guardian of the Walls, a dozen rockets were fired into
Israel from the same area in Lebanon causing several people to be injured while
running for shelter.
For the first time since the Second Lebanon War in 2006, incoming rocket sirens
were activated in the southern Galilee region, as well as the Haifa suburbs of
Kiryat Bialik and Kiryat Motzkin after four rockets were fired.
Several days earlier, six rockets were fired from Rashaya Al Foukhar, north of
Kfar Choub in southern Lebanon. All fell short of the border and landed inside
Lebanese territory and the IDF fired back toward the source of the rocket launch
in Lebanon with some 22 tank and artillery shells.
It is still unclear who fired the rockets early on Tuesday morning but the IDF
believes it to be the same Palestinian militants who fired the rockets in May.
Hezbollah is not suspected to be behind the rocket fire.
According to Lebanon’s MTV News, the Lebanese army said that three Grad rocket
launchers were found in the al-Qulaylah area, “one of them with a missile
prepared for firing, and was then disabled by specialized army units.”
United Nations peacekeepers also issued a statement saying that “UNIFIL radar
monitored the firing of rockets from the northwest area of Qalila towards Israel
and then spotted artillery fire from the Israeli army.”
UNIFIL, which opened an investigation into the incident, said that it is “in
direct contact with the Lebanese army and Israel” and is “urging maximum
restraint to avoid further escalation.”
In a recent interview, Col. Raz Haimlich, Commander of the Artillery Corps Fire
Brigade 411th “Keren” Battalion told The Jerusalem Post that with the Lebanese
economy in a free-fall, the IDF is concerned that there may be an increase of
incidents along its northern border.
“The Lebanese economy is not good, and that can lead to things happening on the
border,” he said. Haimlich’s battalion has responded to several incidents along
the Lebanese border including during the fighting with Gaza when a number of
Lebanese rioters damaged the border fence and crossed into Israel near the
community of Metula.
Lebanese Prosecutor Summons Salameh over Graft
Allegations
Agence France Presse/July 20, 2021
A Lebanon prosecutor has summoned Central Bank chief Riad Salameh for
questioning next month over graft allegations, the latest of several cases
brought against him, a judicial source told AFP. Riad Salameh, one of world's
longest-serving central bank governors, is facing a spate of allegations,
including from Switzerland, France and Britain, over suspicions of money
laundering, embezzlement and fraud. Lebanon opened a local probe into Salameh's
wealth in April, after the Swiss attorney general requested assistance in an
investigation into more than $300 million which Salameh allegedly embezzled out
of the central bank with the help of his brother -- a charge Salameh has
repeatedly denied. In August, Lebanese prosecutor Jean Tannous will question
Salameh on allegations of "embezzlement, forgery, illicit enrichment, money
laundering and tax evasion," the judicial source said. The decision to
interrogate the central bank governor is "based on information coming from
Lebanon and abroad," the source added, saying the probe overlaps with similar
investigations in other countries. The accusations brought against Salameh came
as Lebanon grapples with an economic crisis branded by the World Bank as one of
the worst since the mid-19th century. Critics at home have blamed Salameh's
monetary policies for the financial crash but there have been no serious calls
for his removal from a ruling class accused of benefiting from his central bank
schemes. After Switzerland opened its probe, France launched a similar
investigation into charges of aggravated money laundering in May. The inquiry
was prompted by complaints filed by Swiss foundation Accountability Now,
France's Sherpa anti-corruption NGO, and the Collective Association of Victims
of Fraudulent and Criminal Practices in Lebanon, set up by savers devastated by
the economic crisis. Salameh has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.
Diab condemns terrorist attack in Iraq
NNA/July 20, 2021
Caretaker Prime Minister, Hassan Diab, condemned the bombing that took place in
Sadr City in Iraq. In a cable to Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi,
Premier Diab said: Targeting security and stability in brotherly Iraq is a crime
committed by conspirators against Iraq and its honourable people. While I
strongly condemn this terrorist attack, I offer you my sincere condolences for
the falling of martyrs; I wish a speedy recovery for the wounded, and I assure
you of Lebanon and the Lebanese people’s standing with you. --- Grand Serail
Press Office
LIC Reacts to Resignation of Lebanon’s Prime
Minister-designate Saad Hariri
July 20, 2021
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: joanna@theresolute.group
Washington, D.C. - Following the resignation of Lebanon’s Prime
Minister-designate Saad Hariri, Lebanese Information Center (LIC) President Dr.
Joseph Gebeily has issued the following statement:
The LIC has closely followed the positions of the international community,
including the United States, urging Lebanon to form a government committed to
implementing urgent reforms to alleviate the suffering of the Lebanese people.
The LIC appreciates this continued pressure, and sees international engagement
in Lebanon as a force for good.
Unfortunately, the ruling clique in Lebanon heeds neither the calls of their own
people nor the statements of the international community. For years, these
parties have refused to eliminate the corruption, waste, and mismanagement that
are responsible for the continuing collapse of the Lebanese state. Public trust
in them has evaporated and they are shunned by the international community –
still, they refuse to budge.
Therefore, the only way to solve Lebanon’s current crises – political and
socioeconomic – is the establishment of a new authority that truly reflects the
will of the Lebanese people. This new authority can only come to be through
parliamentary elections; a new parliament would then elect an executive with the
genuine will and capacity to reform and work with international organizations
who have expressed their desire to help Lebanon financially and socially.
The LIC thanks all countries, notably the United States, which have offered
ongoing assistance to Lebanon, particularly in the wake of the Beirut port
explosion. It calls on these countries to increase their direct support to the
Lebanese people to help them secure basic needs including food, fuel, and
medicine, until a new political balance can be achieved through next year’s
elections. ###
The Lebanese Information Center in the U.S. is the largest grassroots
organization of Americans of Lebanese descent, committed to building a free,
sovereign, and democratic Lebanon for the good of the Lebanese people and in the
interest of the United States of America.
In Lebanon, the Wheels of Justice Do Not Grind
David Schenker/The Washington Institute/July 20/2021
The Hariri tribunal hasn’t led to a single arrest, so Washington should let it
expire and help the Lebanese people in better ways.
Following the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri,
a billboard demanding “the truth” was erected in downtown Beirut. It came with a
digital counter tracking the number of days since the murder. As the tally
approached 1,000 days, the three-digit billboard counter was set to run out of
room. In late 2007, the sign was expanded to include an extra digit. In 2009,
after the establishment of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon in The Hague with
the task of investigating and prosecuting Hariri’s killers, the billboard’s
tagline was changed to “Time of Justice” and the counter reset to zero.
The number is well into four digits again. Nearly 6,000 days have passed since
the assassination, but justice has not been served. The truth about who killed
Hariri has been firmly established by the court, but in Lebanon, where the
verdict needs to be implemented, the wheels of justice do not grind. As with so
many political murders there, no one has been held accountable for his death.
In recent weeks, the Hariri murder has resurfaced in the news amid reports that
the tribunal will permanently cease its work at the end of July. Enduring an
unprecedented economic crisis, Beirut has been unable or unwilling to pay its
obligatory 49 percent of the tribunal’s current budget of $40 million per year.
(The remaining 51 percent is paid by 28 other donors, including the United
States.)
Meanwhile, once-robust international support for the court has waned since its
August 2020 conviction in absentia of Salim Ayyash, a member of the Lebanese
terrorist organization Hezbollah, for Hariri’s murder. Though the court did not
explicitly link him to the Iran-supported Shiite militia, the U.S. State
Department has identified Ayyash as “a senior operative in Hizballah’s Unit 121,
the group’s assassinations squad which receives its orders directly from
Hizballah leader Hasan Nasrallah.” The court did not convict any of the other
people accused or suspected of having been involved in the assassination,
including Syrian intelligence operatives, who in the early years of the tribunal
were primary targets of the investigation.
But even if the Lebanese government and the United Nations try to salvage the
court, the Biden administration should let the tribunal expire. The court cannot
implement its verdict in its most important case, and with the economic
situation in Lebanon rapidly deteriorating, continuing to pay for the tribunal
would constitute an appalling misallocation of resources.
Like U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which sought to prevent the
rearmament of Hezbollah after its war with Israel in the summer of 2006, the
tribunal was a well-intentioned effort by the international community to help
change Lebanon for the better. At least initially, the court was envisioned as a
mechanism to move Lebanon away from its long-standing culture of impunity and
lawlessness toward a new era of accountability. Proponents of the tribunal argue
that, to this day, it continues to serve this purpose by exposing Hezbollah’s
crimes and thus damaging its reputation. Alas, there is little evidence to
suggest that Hezbollah’s supporters are repulsed by this or any other murder
linked to the organization. Instead, 16 years after Hariri’s death, the
tribunal, which has cost various countries’ taxpayers nearly $800 million, has
become a distraction amid Lebanon’s self-inflicted state failure and Hezbollah’s
increasing dominance of the state.
Notwithstanding its impending demise, the court maintains that it still has
important work on its docket. In the coming months and years, the tribunal had
planned to conduct trials for the 2005 assassination of George Hawi, as well as
the attempted murders of Marwan Hamadeh in 2004 and Elias Murr in 2005—all
prominent Lebanese politicians. (Hawi was an outspoken critic of Syrian meddling
in Lebanon, as is Hamadeh.) Yet the only individual indicted by the tribunal and
slated to stand trial for these crimes is—once again—Salim Ayyash, Hariri’s
assassin. The idea that one Hezbollah operative is single-handedly responsible
for a wave of meticulously planned political assassinations is absurd and
contradicts the tribunal investigators’ own findings.
Ayyash, regrettably, is not likely to face consequences for Hariri’s death,
despite having been found guilty. He is presumably in Lebanon, where he enjoys
the protection of Hezbollah; Nasrallah has personally said Hezbollah would
prevent his arrest. Toeing the line, the Lebanese authorities have likewise
never attempted to apprehend him. Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department in March
offered a reward of $10 million for information helping identify and locate
Ayyash.
Rather than spending years and additional millions of dollars on more
meaningless convictions of the same individual, Washington should instead focus
on operationalizing the Hariri verdict and apprehending Ayyash. In its first 100
days, the Biden administration has devoted significant time to rebuilding
traditional U.S. alliances with European partners. The supposedly improved
dynamics with the continent should ideally provide an opportunity for Washington
to redouble its engagement with the 11 or so European Union member states that
financially supported the tribunal but have not yet designated Hezbollah as a
terrorist organization. Reports that the U.S. and French ambassadors to Lebanon
traveled together to Riyadh in the first week of July suggest a new and
unprecedented level of coordination vis-a-vis Lebanon’s political and economic
crises.
One major obstacle that stands in the way of a coordinated policy to help
Lebanon—much more than whether or not the tribunal gets extended—is that much of
the EU remains committed to the fiction that Hezbollah’s political and military
wings are distinct and separate entities. These European governments are
contradicted by the terrorist organization’s most senior officials, including
Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem, who in 2012 stated: “We don’t
have a military wing and a political one. We don’t have Hezbollah on one hand
and the resistance party on the other.” EU states are likewise well aware that
Hezbollah is a disciplined organization. Even if the tribunal presented no
“smoking gun” linking Nasrallah directly to Hariri’s assassination, it is
inconceivable that Ayyash was freelancing.
The absence of national-level designations of Hezbollah in its entirety as a
terrorist organization enables the organization to continue its “political”
operations throughout much of the EU. It also complicates Europol’s work
targeting Hezbollah finances, forcing the agency to distinguish between funds
being channeled to the group’s so-called “military” and “political” wings. Full
designations would facilitate prosecution of its members in Europe and beyond,
and help to delegitimize the organization by compelling European officials—such
as French President Emmanuel Macron—to cease having contact with Hezbollah
representatives.
If it were necessary to further convince Washington’s European partners of
Hezbollah’s role in the murder, the Biden administration might consider passing
on some of the intelligence regarding Ayyash’s position in Hezbollah’s
assassination squad. In any event, 16 years after the Hariri assassination, the
work of the tribunal is done. It is now time for those states that underwrote
this titular exercise in accountability to actually hold the killers to account.
Europe has long been reticent to designate all of Hezbollah as the
state-capturing terrorist organization it is, so this will undoubtedly prove a
heavy diplomatic lift for Washington. Still, as the tribunal concludes, it’s
difficult to imagine a better time to press the issue. If the Biden
administration can’t convince its European partners to act, perhaps it could
persuade these states to at least direct their tribunal contributions to a cause
that would better help Lebanon—such as that of the World Food Program, which
(along with the World Bank) is currently feeding a considerable portion of the
Lebanese population suffering, in large part, due to Hezbollah.
*David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute. From
2019 to January 2021, he served as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern
affairs. This article was originally published on the Foreign Policy website.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on July 20-21/2021
Israeli airstrikes reported south of Aleppo - Syrian media
The Jerusalem Post/July 20/2021
Syrian media claimed it was "Israeli aggression," stating that Israel's target
was a factory and research center. Air defense systems in Syria were activated
in response to Israeli airstrikes south of the city of Aleppo on Tuesday,
according to Syrian state TV and the SANA news agency.
A Syrian army source told the Syrian news agency that air defenses intercepted
most of the missiles, which were launched toward the Al-Safirah area in the
northwest of the country. No casualties have been reported so far.
An investigation is now underway regarding the results of the attack.Lebanese
television channel Al-Mayadeen claimed it was "Israeli aggression," stating that
Israel's target was a factory and research center on the outskirts of the city.
The IDF has not made a statement in response to the reported attacks.
This is the first attack attributed to Israel in Syria since the new government
was sworn in last month.
In meeting with Abdullah, Biden expresses support for
two-state solution
The Jerusalem Post/July 20/2021
WASHINGTON - US
President Joe Biden welcomed Jordan's King Abdullah II to the White House on
Monday. It is the first of three face-to-face meetings with leaders from the
Middle East expected soon.After the meeting, the White House said in a statement
that the two leaders “reaffirm the enduring strength of the partnership between
the United States and Jordan.”
“President Biden confirmed unwavering US support for Jordan and His Majesty’s
leadership,” the White House said. "He was proud to announce the delivery of
over 500,000 COVID-19 vaccines to Jordan, underscoring the US commitment to
bringing the same urgency to international vaccination efforts that we have
demonstrated at home.” The two also discussed the global economic effect of
COVID-19 and the president’s infrastructure plan “as well as Jordan’s plans for
a desalination project and Jordan’s potential for greater regional economic
integration through investments in energy infrastructure.”
The two also discussed the situation in the Middle East. “In that regard, the
President expressed his strong support for a two-state solution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict and respect for Jordan’s special role as custodian
of Muslim holy places in Jerusalem,” the White House statement reads.
According to the White House, “the President expressed US support for engagement
between Jordan and the new Israeli government, as demonstrated by their
bilateral agreement earlier this month to improve Jordan’s access to fresh water
and increase Jordan’s exports to the West Bank.”
The US president also “commended the important role Jordan plays in the wider
stability of the region and welcomed the recent trilateral summit in Baghdad
between Iraq, Jordan and Egypt.”
Abdullah is the first Middle East leader to visit the Biden White House, to be
followed on July 26 by Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. US and Israeli
officials are working on scheduling a meeting soon between Biden and new Israeli
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
Speaking about the strategic US-Jordan defense relationship, the two leaders
“discussed US support for the modernization of Jordan’s fleet of F-16 fighter
jets, which will allow for greater interoperability and effectiveness of the
Jordanian Armed Forces,” the White House said. “President Biden thanked Jordan
for its important early contributions to the successful campaign to defeat ISIS,
and honored the memory of Captain Muath al-Kasasbeh as an example of Jordanian
courage and heroism.”
Biden noted that his administration “looks forward to strengthening bilateral
cooperation in multiple areas over the coming months, including the promotion of
economic opportunities that will be vital for a bright future in Jordan.”
King Abdullah will also have a working breakfast with Vice President Kamala
Harris on Tuesday at the vice president's residence. He will meet Secretary of
State Antony Blinken at the State Department on Tuesday.
Has Iran launched a new stealth missile boat?
The Jerusalem Post/July 20/2021
A new Iranian ship is one of several under construction that will be called the
Shahed Soleimani class of stealth ships. Iran has launched one of its new
stealthy catamaran “missile corvettes” according to open-source intelligence
analyzed by expert H.I. Sutton, who runs the Cover Shores website. He noted that
this took place as many have been distracted by monitoring the Iranian Makran
warship which is sailing close to the UK this week. Meanwhile, a new boat was
put to sea in recent weeks. “The boat, which is a large stealthy catamaran
design, was launched at a yard on Qeshm Island between June 27 and July 2,”
Sutton noted. This ship is described as one of several under construction that
will be called the Shahed Soleimani class of ships. At 65-m. long, it will
apparently wield anti-ship missiles and air defense.
Back in April, a satellite image from Planet Labs, also analyzed by Sutton,
noted that it included the third of Iran’s new catamarans designed for this
class of ships. “This little-known shipyard near the Straits of Hormuz is linked
to the IRGC and has been massively expanded,” he wrote.
This is not the first catamaran the Iranian navy has put to sea. According to
Thomas Newdick at The Drive, the US Navy has released video of an IRGC ship
called the Shahid Nazeri harassing US ships back in April. “The Shahid Nazeri is
a larger catamaran-type, high-speed design that appears to be armed with a 20
mm. cannon and has a helipad on top of its rear deck,” he noted. Commissioned in
2016, the ship is 55-m. long and participated in a drill with the Russian and
Iranian navies. It is based in the city of Bandar Abbas, along the Persian Gulf.
Catamaran designs for naval ships are relatively rare. There are exceptions,
such as the HSV-2 Swift that was once leased to the US Navy and then leased to
the UAE. Under a UAE flag, it was attacked by Iranian-backed Houthis in 2016.
Another catamaran-style vessel is the US Sea Fighter FSF-1, an experimental
Littoral Combat Ship. The US has a series of other larger LCS ships, twice the
size of the new Iranian missile boat. Washington has also experimented with the
stealth Sea Shadow catamaran. Indonesia has built a futuristic designed Klewang-class
trimaran which is 62-m. long. Turkey has also looked into building a multi-role
trimaran vessel. Iran’s navy also looked at a trimaran design back in 2018 which
it intended for coastal warfare. It was to be 100-m. long. Sleuths online have
found photos and images of the new Iranian catamaran and also the shipyard that
was expanded to build several of them. It remains to be seen how they will be
used. Given Iran’s interest in harassing US ships and spreading its influence to
the shores of Yemen, the ship may help Iran project its power in coastal and
nearby waters. The satellite images from early July appear to show that Iran has
launched at least one of these new ships.
Iran’s navy is widely considered not strong, and it has suffered many accidents,
including one ship that burned and sank recently. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps has a huge number of fast boats, some of which now operate UAVs.
Iran's daily new coronavirus infections hit another high
AP/July 20/2021
Iran on Tuesday broke another record in the country's daily new coronavirus
cases, even as Tehran and its surroundings went into lockdown, a week-long
measure imposed amid another surge in the pandemic. The country’s health
ministry announced 27,444 new cases and 250 deaths over the past day, bringing
the overall death toll to 87,624 from among more than 3.5 million confirmed
cases in the pandemic. On Tuesday, Iran embarked on another lockdown — the
nation’s fifth so far — that is meant to last until next Monday. All bazars,
markets places and public offices closed, as well as movie theaters, gyms and
restaurants, in both Tehran province and the neighboring province of Alborz.
Security forces open fire during Iran water protests to
‘protect’ protesters: Fars
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English /20 July ,2021
Security forces opened fire during protests over water shortages in Iran’s
oil-rich southwest to “protect” protesters, a semi-official news agency said on
Tuesday, after authorities blamed demonstrators for the death of a man during
the ongoing protests.
The protests, which began on July 15, continued for a fifth consecutive night on
Monday in multiple cities in the Khuzestan province, including the provincial
capital Ahwaz, Susangerd (al-Khafajiya), and Ramhormoz, according to videos
shared on social media. Protesters could be heard chanting in Arabic, as the
region is home to a large ethnic Arab population that has long said it faces
discrimination in Iran. Gunshots could be heard in some videos, while one video
showed security forces opening fire towards protesters. Fars, an Iranian news
agency close to the country’s Revolutionary Guards, said security forces opened
fire during the demonstrations “to protect the protests and demands of the
people of Khuzestan.”
Over the past few nights, the protests “have been diverted by terrorist and
sabotage groups,” it added. Activists said they have verified two deaths caused
by security forces since protests began on Thursday. The two slain protesters
have been named by rights groups as Mostafa Naeemawi and Qassem Khozeiri.
So far, the government has only acknowledged the death of one person – Naeemawi
– blaming it on “rioters.” Iranian officials, who typically use the term
“rioter” to refer to protesters, have in the past blamed deaths during
demonstrations on protesters.
Some social media users have reported a significant decrease in internet speed
in Khuzestan since Saturday. Iran shut down access to the internet for several
days during widespread anti-government protests in 2019.
The water crisis has devastated agriculture and livestock farming and caused
power outages, which sparked protests in several cities earlier this month.
Authorities have blamed the water shortages on a severe drought, but protesters
say the government is to blame. Activists from Khuzestan blame the water crisis
on the government’s “discriminatory” policies – such as the excessive transfer
of water from Khuzestan to ethnically Persian provinces – which they say are
designed to change the region’s demography. The protests in Khuzestan come as
thousands of workers in Iran’s key energy sector have launched strikes for
better wages and working conditions. Iran’s economy has been hit hard since 2018
when former US President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the 2015 nuclear
deal between Tehran and world powers and reimposed sweeping sanctions on the
country. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the country’s economic problems.
News Alert: Jeff Bezos just went to space and back
CNN/July 20, 2021
Jeff Bezos, the world's richest man, went to space and back Tuesday morning on
an 11-minute, supersonic joy ride aboard the rocket and capsule system developed
by his space company, Blue Origin.
Riding alongside the multibillionaire were Bezos' brother, Mark Bezos; Wally
Funk, an 82-year-old pilot and one of the "Mercury 13" women who trained to go
to space in the 20th century but never got to fly; and an 18-year old recent
high school graduate named Oliver Daemen who was Blue Origin's first paying
customer and whose father, an investor, purchased his ticket.Funk and Daemen
became the oldest and youngest people, respectively, ever to travel to space.
And this flight marked the first-ever crewed mission for Blue Origin's New
Shepard suborbital space tourism rocket, which the company plans to use to take
wealthy thrill seekers on high-flying joy rides in the months and years to come.
White House reviewing Section 230 amid efforts to push
social media giants to crack down on misinformation
CNN/July 20, 2021
The White House is reviewing whether social media platforms should be held
legally accountable for publishing misinformation via Section 230, a law that
protects companies' ability to moderate content, White House communications
director Kate Bedingfield said Tuesday. The Section 230 debate is taking on new
urgency in recent days as the administration has called on social media
platforms to take a more aggressive stance on combating misinformation. The
federal law, which is part of the Communications Decency Act, provides legal
immunity to websites that moderate user-generated content. "We're reviewing
that, and certainly they should be held accountable," Bedingfield told MSNBC
when asked about Section 230 and whether social media companies like Facebook
should be liable and open to lawsuits for publishing false information that
causes Americans harm.
Biden has long railed against the law for its protection of social media
companies from misinformation, whereas Trump has claimed that it leads to the
censorship and suppression of conservative voices. Supporters of the provision,
meanwhile, argue that the law protects free speech. Trump's attempts to use the
executive branch to change how Section 230 is applied to tech companies was
called unconstitutional by legal experts, lawmakers and officials at the Federal
Communications Commission.
The Biden administration now confronts many of the same legal questions. But
only Congress can amend the law itself, and while US lawmakers may be united in
their hostility to Big Tech, Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill remain
split on how Section 230 should be updated. Biden kept the pressure on Facebook
on Monday, saying he not satisfied with what the platform is doing to stop the
spread of misinformation, but backing off his accusation from last week that it
was directly responsible for "killing people." And senior officials are in touch
with Facebook behind the scenes as tensions with the platform have escalated. "Facebook
isn't killing people -- these 12 people are out there giving misinformation.
Anyone listening to it is getting hurt by it. It's killing people. It's bad
information," Biden said, appearing to cite data from the nonprofit Center for
Countering Digital Hate (CCDH). A report published by the organization in March
indicated that about a dozen people were super-spreaders of anti-vaccine
misinformation.The President continued, "My hope is that Facebook, instead of
taking it personally, that somehow I'm saying Facebook is killing people, that
they would do something about the misinformation, the outrageous misinformation
about the vaccine. That's what I meant." ---
Trump ally Tom Barrack charged with acting as an agent of a
foreign government
CNN/July 20, 2021
Tom Barrack, a former adviser to former President Donald Trump, was charged
Tuesday with illegal foreign lobbying on behalf of the United Arab Emirates for
what federal prosecutors described as an effort to influence the foreign policy
positions of both the 2016 Trump presidential campaign and the subsequent
incoming administration. Barrack is charged in a seven-count indictment with
acting as an agent of the UAE between April 2016 and April 2018. He is also
charged with obstruction of justice and making false statements to federal law
enforcement agents.
Cyprus talks can resume only on two-state basis, Erdogan
says
Reuters/July 20, 2021
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday peace talks on the future of
ethnically divided Cyprus can take place only between "the two states" on the
Mediterranean island, in comments sure to further annoy Greek Cypriots and the
EU. Turkish Cypriot officials also announced plans for the potential
resettlement of a small part of the now abandoned Greek Cypriot suburb of
Varosha on the island's east coast. That move too is likely to infuriate Greek
Cypriots as essentially staking ownership over an area the United Nations says
should be placed under the control of peacekeepers.
"A new negotiation process (to heal Cyprus' division) can only be carried out
between the two states. We are right and we will defend our right to the end,"
Erdogan said in a speech in the divided Cypriot capital of Nicosia. He was
marking the anniversary of a Turkish invasion on July 20, 1974, days after a
Greek Cypriot coup engineered by the military then ruling Greece. The island has
remained split ever since into a Greek Cypriot south and a Turkish Cypriot
north. Greek Cypriots, who represent Cyprus internationally and are backed by
the European Union, reject a two-state deal for the island which would accord
sovereign status to the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state that only Ankara
recognises. Decked out in red-and-white Turkish and Turkish Cypriot flags, the
celebratory mood in north Nicosia on Tuesday stood in stark contrast with a
sombre mood in the south, where Greek Cypriots were woken by air raid sirens
marking the day Turkish forces landed 47 years ago.
Iraq Bombing Claimed by IS Kills Nearly 30 on Eve of Eid
Holiday
Agence France Presse/July 20, 2021
The Islamic State group claimed responsibility early Tuesday for a suicide
bombing that ripped through a busy market in the Iraqi capital ahead of Eid
holiday celebrations, killing nearly 30 people, according to medical sources. In
a message posted to its Telegram channel, the militant group said a suicide
bomber named Abu Hamza al-Iraqi detonated his explosive belt in the middle of a
crowd in Sadr City, an eastern Baghdad suburb on Monday night, killing more than
30 and wounding 35 others. In one of the worst attacks in Baghdad in recent
years, body parts of victims lay scattered across the previously bustling market
that had been crowded with shoppers buying food ahead of the Islamic festival of
Eid al-Adha, according to an AFP photographer. Some 50 people were also wounded
in the blast, medics said. Iraqi President Barham Salih called the bombing in
the densely populated majority-Shiite suburb of Sadr City a "heinous crime" and
offered his condolences. "They are targeting our civilians in Sadr City on the
eve of Eid," Salih said in a message on Twitter. "They do not allow people to
rejoice, even for a moment."Eight women and seven children were among the dead,
according to a medical sources, who said the toll lay between 28 and 30 killed.
In an early Tuesday statement, children's agency UNICEF confirmed that children
were killed and injured in the attack.
"This horrific attack right before Eid Al-Adha is a terrible reminder of the
violence Iraqi children continue to face," it said.
Screaming in terror
Video footage shared on social media after the blast showed bloodied victims and
people screaming in terror. The blast was so strong it ripped the roofs off some
market stalls. "A terror attack using a locally made IED (improvised explosive
device) in Woheilat Market in Sadr City, in east Baghdad, left several victims
dead and others injured," Iraq's interior ministry said in a statement.
Refrigerators full of water bottles were drenched with blood, and shoes were
strewn on the ground alongside fruit, AFP journalists said. Baghdad Operations
Command, a joint military and interior ministry security body, said it had
launched an investigation into the blast, and police and forensic teams late
Monday were searching through the smoking wreckage for clues. Prime Minister
Mustafa al-Kadhemi convened an emergency meeting with his heads of military and
security agencies. In January, the Islamic State group claimed responsibility
for a rare twin suicide bombing that killed 32 people -- also at a crowded
market in Baghdad. That blast was the city's deadliest attack in three years.
Such violence was commonplace in Baghdad during the sectarian bloodletting that
followed the US-led invasion of 2003, and later on as IS swept across much of
Iraq and also targeted the capital. But after years of deadly violence, militant
attacks have become relatively rare in the capital Baghdad.
'Impossible to celebrate'
Monday's bloody attack sparked a furious response from Iraqis on social
media."Terrorism and the government's failure keep on stealing our lives,"
tweeted Alaa Sattar, a youth activist. "The authorities have nothing but
condolences to dole out and empty investigative committees."Another Twitter user
wrote "every Eid, there's a tragedy in Baghdad. It's impossible to celebrate
like the rest of humanity".Iraq declared IS defeated at the end of 2017 after a
fierce three-year campaign. Yet the group's sleeper cells have continued to
operate in desert and mountain areas, typically targeting security forces or
state infrastructure with low casualty attacks. The US-led coalition that had
been supporting Iraq's campaign against IS has significantly drawn down its
troop levels over the past year, citing the increased capabilities of Iraqi
forces. The United States, which provides the bulk of the force, has 2,500
troops left in Iraq -- down from 5,200 a year ago. They are mainly in charge of
training, providing drone surveillance and carrying out air strikes while Iraqi
security forces handle security in urban areas. Sadr City, where Monday's bomb
blast took place, is named after revered Shiite cleric Mohammed al-Sadr. His
son, Moqtada Sadr -- a firebrand cleric with millions of followers and in
command of paramilitary groups -- is a crucial player in Iraqi politics who has
often protested against the influence of both the United States and Iran. The
boycott by Sadr of upcoming elections slated for October is a blow to Prime
Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi, who had called the early vote in response to
demands by pro-democracy activists.
India's Covid Deaths 10 Times Higher than Reported, Study
Says
Agence France Presse/July 20, 2021
India's coronavirus death toll is up to 10 times higher than the nearly 415,000
fatalities reported by authorities, likely making it the country's worst
humanitarian disaster since independence, a U.S. research group said Tuesday.
The Center for Global Development study's estimate is the highest yet for the
carnage in the South Asian nation of 1.3 billion people, which is emerging from
a devastating surge partly fueled by the Delta variant in April and May. The
study -- which analyzed data from the start of the pandemic to June this year --
suggested that between 3.4 million and 4.7 million people had died from the
virus. "True deaths are likely to be in the several millions, not hundreds of
thousands, making this arguably India's worst human tragedy since partition and
independence," the researchers said. India's official death toll of just over
414,000 is the world's third-highest after the United States' 609,000 fatalities
and Brazil's 542,000. Experts have been casting doubt on India's toll for
months, blaming the stressed health service rather than deliberate
misinformation. Several Indian states have revised their virus tolls in recent
weeks, adding thousands of "backlog" deaths. The center's report was based on
estimating "excess mortality", the number of extra people who died compared with
pre-crisis figures. The authors -- which included Arvind Subramanian, a former
chief government economic adviser -- did this partly by analyzing death
registrations in some states as well as a recurring national economic study. The
researchers, which also included a Harvard University expert, acknowledged that
estimating mortality with statistical confidence was difficult. "(But) all
estimates suggest that the death toll from the pandemic is likely to be an order
of magnitude greater than the official count," they said.
'Speculative' Christophe Guilmoto, a specialist in Indian demography at France's
Research Institute for Development, this month estimated that the death toll was
nearer 2.2 million by late May.India's death rate per million was nearly half
the world average and Guilmoto said "such a low figure contradicts the apparent
severity of a crisis that has struck most Indian families across the country."
Guilmoto's team concluded that only one coronavirus death in seven was recorded.
A model by the U.S.-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimated
that the Covid toll could be more than 1.25 million.
India's health ministry last month slammed The Economist magazine for publishing
a story that said excess deaths were between five and seven times higher than
the official toll, calling it "speculative" and "misinformed". A World Health
Organization report in May said up to three times more people had died around
the globe during the pandemic -- from coronavirus or other causes -- than
indicated by official statistics.
Knife attack against Mali interim President Assimi Goita
NNA/July 20, 2021
Mali’s interim President Assimi Goitahas been targeted in an attempted stabbing
attack during Eid al-Adha prayers at the Grand Mosque in the capital, Bamako,
his office said. “The attacker was immediately overpowered by security.
Investigations are ongoing,” the presidency said in a Twitter post on Tuesday.
Goita was taken from the scene, according to an AFP news agency journalist, who
said it was not immediately clear whether he had been wounded. An official at
the presidency later told AFP that Goita was “safe and sound”. Two military
sources also told Reuters news agency that Goita was unharmed following the
attack.
The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials published on
July 20-21/2021
Arabs Warn Biden: The War on Terrorism is not Over
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/July 20, 2021
The Arabs are saying that the Americans are mistaken if they think that the war
on terrorism will end with the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan.
Adib warned that the US will pay the price for its exit from Afghanistan. "The
cost of the withdrawal will be greater and more dangerous for America and the
entire world," he said. "Al-Qaeda and the Taliban are preparing to establish a
state whose features will be close to those of ISIS. The threat of ISIS is still
there and its cells are still spread everywhere." — Mounir Adib, Egyptian expert
on Islamic movements and international terrorism, Annaharar.com, June 5, 2021.
[T]he threat of terrorism will grow because of the Americans' failure to consult
with their allies in the Middle East, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates.... — Mounir Adib, Annaharar.com, June 5, 2021.
"The biggest catastrophe is that Afghanistan will become the capital of
terrorism again, and now we have the threat of Al-Qaeda making a comeback...
after America's withdrawal from Afghanistan as these groups feel proud and
victorious, which will push them to continue fighting against America and the
Arabs and Europeans." — Mounir Adib, Annaharar.com, June 5, 2021.
"[T]he problem is that extremist and terrorist groups and political Islam do not
know how to live without rivalry, and they do not like to live in peace and
without enemies. It is true that the US military force diminished Al-Qaeda and
destroyed the dream of ISIS to have its own state, but it did not eliminate the
terrorist ideology...." — Bahaa Al-Awam, Syrian journalist and political
analyst, Al-Ain, July 12, 2021.
"What makes matters worse is that the American withdrawal from the region will
mark a victory in favor of political Islamic organizations...." — Bahaa Al-Awam,
Al-Ain, July 12, 2021.
These Arabs are telling the Biden administration in no uncertain terms: US
policies and actions are undermining your credibility among your allies and
paving the way for the return of Islamic terrorist groups.
A growing number of Arabs are saying that the Americans are mistaken if they
think that the war on terrorism will end with the withdrawal of the US troops
from Afghanistan. Pictured: Afghan Militiamen guard against the Taliban at an
outpost in Balkh Province, Afghanistan.
As the United States prepares to complete its withdrawal from Afghanistan by
August 31, 2021, a growing number of Arabs are worried that the American move
will not only bring the Taliban back to power there, but also lead to the
re-emergence of other Islamist terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda and Islamic
State (ISIS).
The Arabs are saying that the Americans are mistaken if they think that the war
on terrorism will end with the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan.
They are warning the US that it will pay a heavy price for allowing Afghanistan
to fall into the hands of terrorist groups. They are also saying that they see
no difference between the Taliban, Al-Qaeda and ISIS, and how these groups
openly cooperate with each other.
Mounir Adib, an Egyptian expert on Islamic movements and international
terrorism, pointed out that the Taliban had previously protected Al-Qaeda and
even refused to hand over Osama bin Laden to the US while he was residing in
Afghanistan, on the pretext that the Americans failed to prove his relationship
to the September 11, 2001 attacks.
"The Taliban refused to hand over the leader of Al-Qaeda and provided him with
the protection that his group continues to enjoy today," Adib wrote.
"Intelligence reports confirmed that there is security and military cooperation
between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, whose fighters fought together against the US
forces over the past two decades. This means that the Taliban is committed to
the core principles that it shares with Al-Qaeda. The danger of Al-Qaeda and the
Taliban will continue to threaten the world."
Adib warned that the US will pay the price for its exit from Afghanistan. "The
cost of the withdrawal will be greater and more dangerous for America and the
entire world," he said. "Al-Qaeda and the Taliban are preparing to establish a
state whose features will be close to those of ISIS. The threat of ISIS is still
there and its cells are still spread every
According to the Egyptian expert, the threat of terrorism will grow because of
the Americans' failure to consult with their allies in the Middle East,
including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, regarding the war on
terrorism.
In a more recent article, Adib ridiculed the US administration for its readiness
to negotiate with Taliban:
"America entered Afghanistan two decades ago in order to eliminate the rule of
Taliban... Now, America is negotiating with them. Most of the intelligence
reports say that Taliban will extend its political and military control over all
Afghan lands. The Americans are leaving Afghanistan despite Taliban's embrace of
Al-Qaeda. The American retreat in front of Taliban and Al-Qaeda confirms that we
are facing a new scene through which Al-Qaeda may return to the forefront of
jihadist action. The biggest catastrophe is that Afghanistan will become the
capital of terrorism again, and now we have the threat of Al-Qaeda making a
comeback. The battle of terrorism is witnessing a decline after America's
withdrawal from Afghanistan as these groups feel proud and victorious, which
will push them to continue fighting against America and the Arabs and
Europeans."
Adib said that the Taliban succeeded in capturing new areas even before the
departure of the American forces from Afghanistan. "This move aims to convey a
message to the world that the American withdrawal was nothing but surrender and
defeat," he remarked.
"The consequences of the withdrawal will appear within the first year of the
withdrawal of the American forces, and Taliban will control Afghanistan
completely within two years of it. America, through its policy, will restore the
Taliban regime that it toppled twenty years ago, and is also rebuilding the
capabilities of Al-Qaeda. America holds a confused vision in the face of
terrorism that may portend dire consequences for the world."
Atef Al-Saadawi, an Egyptian expert in strategic and international affairs,
warned that the war on terrorism is not over. Saadawi said that ISIS continues
to pose a serious threat to security and stability of the world.
"The danger of ISIS is still present," he noted. "The belief that ISIS is
finished, and making decisions based on this wrong assumption, are the greatest
gift that can be given to this terrorist organization."
Therefore, Al-Saadawi added, "there is a great responsibility of the
international coalition to fight ISIS, and the continuation of this alliance
should not be a matter of discussion, and its mission should not be affected by
the change of the US administration."
Saadawi scoffed at President Joe Biden's statements that the US has achieved its
goals in combating the terrorist threat in Afghanistan.
"How can you claim that you have succeeded in combating terrorism without
building a nation that incubates moderate ideology and provides a decent living
that prevents people from embracing extremists?" he asked.
"While Biden expressed confidence in the ability of the Afghan army to confront
the Taliban, he admitted that the Taliban is trying to exploit the American
withdrawal and expand its control over the country. The return of the Taliban to
control the situation in Afghanistan means a possible and undesirable return of
Al-Qaeda and its terrorism and threats to the entire world. Any future
government in Afghanistan in which the Taliban participates could contain
elements of Al-Qaeda, which will give a huge morale boost to this terrorist
organization and help it regroup once again. All indications are that chaos and
instability are about to happen in Afghanistan."
Saudi writer Amal Abdel Aziz Al-Hazani said that there is increased concern that
the Taliban and Al-Qaeda are on their way to controlling Afghanistan after the
US withdrawal.
Hazani said that the Taliban's seizure of many areas in Afghanistan shows that
the country is about to witness "major transformations."
"The US forces are about to leave completely by the end of August, leaving
behind the Taliban at the top of their ascendancy, and an Afghan government that
is resisting the group's return to power," Hazani wrote. "Everyone is terrified.
The proposed scenarios are multiple, the worst of which is the outbreak of a
civil war between the government and the Taliban and ISIS, and the return of
Al-Qaeda to threaten the world again."
Syrian journalist and political analyst Bahaa Al-Awam criticized the US
administration for "trying to convince the world that the terrorists it has been
fighting for years can be negotiated with and dealt with as political groups
worthy of access to power."
Awam said that the US was mistaken to believe that "the reconciliation with the
incubators of terrorism will stop the production of terrorists, and peace will
prevail in the Middle East and the world."
"But the problem is that extremist and terrorist groups and political Islam do
not know how to live without rivalry, and they do not like to live in peace and
without enemies. It is true that the US military force diminished Al-Qaeda and
destroyed the dream of ISIS to have its own state, but it did not eliminate the
terrorist ideology, nor did it uproot terrorism from its roots. What makes
matters worse is that the American withdrawal from the region will mark a
victory in favor of political Islamic organizations, and the victor always
attracts attention and becomes the focus of public attention."
These are the alarm bells that many Arabs are sounding, loud and clear. They
seem to urgently hope that the US administration will wake up to the fact that
the war on Islamist terrorism is far from over and will not end after the
withdrawal from Afghanistan. These Arabs are telling the Biden administration in
no uncertain terms: US policies and actions are undermining your credibility
among your allies and paving the way for the return of Islamic terrorist groups.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone
Manufacturing 'Islamophobia': Denari Duffner's Deep Dive
Andrew E. Harrod/The American Spectator/July 20/2021
Georgetown University's Bridge Initiative, a project of its Saudi-founded Prince
Alwaleed bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding (ACMCU), claims it
exists to combat the pernicious spread of "Islamophobia." ACMCU's June 30
webinar featuring former Bridge research fellow Jordan Denari Duffner offered
further evidence that Bridge's real mission is to depict all Muslims as victims
and silence critical commentary on Islam. Like the term "Islamophobia" itself,
Bridge exists to end, rather than advance, debate.
Bridge senior research fellow Mobashra Tazamal interviewed Denari Duffner about
her recently published book, Islamophobia: What Christians Should Know (and Do)
about Anti-Muslim Discrimination. Currently a Georgetown doctoral student in
theological and religious studies, she has a long history of erroneous
statements concerning Islamic doctrine. Now she worries that Christians "only
see kind of negative manifestations of Islam in the media" and "are not aware of
all the ways that Muslims are doing good for them" — virtues she never
elucidated.
Denari Duffner condemned past New York City police surveillance of Muslim
neighborhoods and individuals, including Asad Dandia, who led a "Muslim charity
group." Yet American police have used similar techniques in ethnoreligious
communities to find criminal elements, such as the Italian mafia. Foreign police
forces also regularly surveil radical mosques.
The New York City program "was basically created with the premise that Muslims
are inherently suspect; that Muslims are prone to violence, are seditious,"
Denari Duffner said, as if Muslim communities could not be legitimate targets of
police scrutiny. "Some of these programs around the country actually are looking
to stir up trouble" with "entrapment, luring Muslims into committing crimes that
can then be charged for terrorism," she claimed. Yet such "sting" operations are
again a normal law enforcement tool, no less necessary for catching criminally
minded individuals when dealing with jihad terrorism than any other crime.
"'Islamophobia' brings the Right and the Left together," Denari Duffner
lamented. Progressives "have made some of the most anti-Muslim comments that I
have ever heard," she elaborated, while failing to acknowledge that Islam sparks
controversies apparent to people from diverse backgrounds. "So much of our
self-definition as Western people is contingent on having this view of Muslims
as the opposite of whatever we see ourselves to be," she stated, "as progressive
and supportive of women's rights, and democratic and peaceful."
To exemplify this "Islamophobia" across the political spectrum, Denari Duffner
highlighted the collaboration between Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Robert Spencer. Ali, a
"former Muslim who gained a huge following in a lot of liberal circles," is
often "talking about the ills of Islam to your NPR audience," Denari Duffner
said.
Denari Duffner further displayed her superficiality when discussing Spencer, an
authority on Islam and bestselling author. Using sweeping comments she condemns
in others, she claimed Spencer operates "in these neocon circles," a common
euphemism for Jewish intellectuals. Moreover, Spencer has consistently
criticized neoconservative democratic regime change strategies in
Muslim-majority countries like Iraq.
Spencer was again mentioned in the discussion over what Tazamal called the
"Catholic wing of the 'Islamophobia' industry," as the Catholic Denari Duffner
had analyzed. Before leaving the Catholic Church, Spencer "for many years was
writing specifically for Catholics," Denari Duffner stated. She also criticized
the Turning Point Project of the Catholic William Kilpatrick, an insightful
former Boston College professor, which works "to basically freak Catholics out
about Islam," she said.
Denari Duffner tried to downplay centuries of jihadist assaults upon Christian
communities that eradicated Christianity from its historic homeland in the
Middle East. "We often see ourselves with these rose-colored glasses," she said,
acknowledging that "both sides have harmed one another but have also done
tremendous good for the other."
This pollyannaish view of Islam undergirds Denari Duffner's broader claim to
"actively debunk stereotypical or untrue claims made about Islam." She asserted
that "Muslims are just as indigenous to India as Hindus," a blatantly
ahistorical claim given that Muslim conquerors subjugated India after many
centuries of Hindu preeminence. Breezily overlooking troublesome Islamic
doctrines like wife-beating, she dismissed that some "Muslim men have a penchant
for being oppressive to women" as a view that reduces "Muslims to dehumanized,
threatening people."
Supposedly behind all this "Islamophobia," as Tazamal quoted ominously from
Denari Duffner's book, are "nefarious forces" that are "propped up by industry
and imperialism." People "warp these terms" like "sharia" or "jihad," Tazamal
asserted without evidence, "to justify violence or discriminatory policies
against Muslim communities." Denari Duffner concurred about an "intentional
marginalization of a community so that another community can benefit."
"Anti-Muslim tropes are tools that governments can use," Denari Duffner stated,
as if jihadist threats are figments of imagination. For Syrian dictator Bashar
al-Assad, "whenever he wanted to try to delegitimize the opposition, they were
cast as terrorists," she stated. But studies have documented the presence of
jihadists among Assad's opposition.
Likewise, "Israel is able to justify its policy of dominance of the
Palestinians," Denari Duffner said, as "Palestinians are the quintessential
terrorist Muslims" for Israelis and others. Such sympathy for the Palestinians
whitewashes the jihad they and other Muslims have waged against Zionism and
Israel. Yet she asserted that Israel gets a "blank check to do whatever they
want."
An uncritical approach to Islam undercuts Denari Duffner's belief that
interactions with Muslims will end "Islamophobia." "I have had such positive
experiences getting to know Muslims as classmates in college, and if everyone
could have this experience, then this problem of 'Islamophobia' would go away,"
she once assumed. Unlike her, however, many others base their worldviews on
empirical facts rather than fantasy. Thus, she has come to realize that "'Islamophobia'
isn't going to go away if people simply get to know Muslims."
enari Duffner combines a willful blindness toward all things Islamic with an
ahistorical, highly critical approach to the West in general and Christianity in
particular. It is a virtue to see the humanity of others, but it is the job of
the scholar to tell the truth regardless of the cost. In finding fault primarily
with her own kind while denying inconvenient facts about the "Other," Denari
Duffner rejects this key academic obligation. Legislators, policymakers,
theologians, and others should reject Georgetown's peddlers of "Islamophobia"
for what they are: charlatans undermining the West's ability to define and
defend itself.
*Andrew E. Harrod, a Middle East Forum Campus Watch Fellow, freelance
researcher, and writer, is a fellow with the Lawfare Project. Follow him on
Twitter: @AEHarrod.
Serbia has its reasons for sending ambassador to Syria
Vuk Vuksanovic/Al-Monitor/July 20/2021
Belgrade breaks with EU consensus by being one of the first European countries
to upgrade its relations with Damascus to ambassadorial level.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was sworn in July 17 for his fourth seven-year
presidential term after winning more than 95.1% of the votes in democratically
dubious elections held May 26. The United States and the European Union do not
recognize the outcome of the elections. However, there are those in Europe who
do. Among them is Serbia, an EU membership candidate that intends to send an
ambassador to Damascus, although the name of the new ambassador has not been
disclosed.
The EU reacted to the Serbian move. EU spokesman Peter Stano stated, “The EU’s
position regarding the normalization of relations with the regime in Syria is
clear and unchanged, and the recent elections organized by the Syrian regime
cannot lead to international normalization."
He continued, "It should be taken into account that the Serbian government has
repeatedly confirmed that European integration is a strategic priority for the
country.”
The logical question is, why is Serbia sending an ambassador to Syria? It has
little to do with bilateral ties between Belgrade and Damascus, but instead with
a wider context of Serbian foreign policy.
Indeed, what bilateral points can Serbia draw? Contracts for its arms industry?
This is dangerous given the risks associated with the Assad regime and the
controversies caused by the presence of Balkan weaponry in the Syrian conflict.
The old ties from Yugoslav nonalignment remain. In 1967, in solidarity with
Egypt and Syria over the Six-Day War, Tito’s Yugoslavia severed relations with
Israel. In 2012, with the start of the Syrian war, Serbia had to evacuate its
citizens in Syria; they were mostly women who married Syrian nationals during
the former Yugoslav era. Yugoslav state companies had a history of doing
projects in Syria. However, Yugoslavia and most of its big state firms are gone,
and it is dubious how much Serbia, a developing country, can help reconstruct
Syria.
The fact that Syria has been a nonrecognizer of independent Kosovo played a part
in the fact that Serbia “has never severed diplomatic relations with Syria.”
Indeed, according to the Serbian Foreign Ministry, “Until the appointment of our
new ambassador to that country, they took place at the level of a temporary
charge d’affaires, which was conditioned by the security situation in that
country at the time.” During the war, the Serbian Embassy to Syria operated from
Lebanon.
However, there is broader geopolitical logic at play. Europe itself remains
divided on this issue. There are EU members that are rebuilding ties with
Damascus. The Czech Republic was the only EU member with an embassy in Damascus
since 2012; the Austrian Embassy operates from Lebanon, while Bulgaria, Greece,
Cyprus and Hungary are reopening their embassies. Compared to Serbia, these
countries are sending charges d’affaires, a lower level of diplomatic
representative that hands in diplomatic credentials to the foreign minister of
the receiving country, unlike the ambassador who hands them to the head of
state. From the EU standpoint, by sending an ambassador who will hand his
credentials to Assad, Serbia legitimizes his regime. So why the Serbian move?
Since 2008, Serbian foreign policy has been shaped by the global financial
crisis and the unilateral declaration of Kosovo’s independence. The 2008
financial crisis and subsequent crisis in Europe impeded the ability of the EU
to enlarge to the Balkans, and Serbian opposition to Kosovo’s independence
forced Serbian diplomacy to distinguish between governments that recognized
independent Kosovo and those that did not. Under those circumstances, it became
difficult for Serbia to align itself with the EU’s policies, particularly when
it involved its main backer on Kosovo — Russia. In the case of Syria, Serbia
aligned with those EU declarations that did not impede on Russia’s interests in
Syria.
Serbia tried to be careful, though. In 2017, Serbia gave up on sending a
military demining team alongside their Russian counterparts to Syria, both due
to insufficient capacities and to preserve neutrality on the Syrian conflict and
the West-Russia tensions. However, now the situation is different. After a
temporary crisis in ties with Russia and Belgrade’s failed bet on the reelection
of US President Donald Trump, Belgrade needs to partially re-pivot toward Moscow
to get diplomatic protection in the Kosovo dispute. In doing so, Serbia is
extending goodwill gestures toward Moscow by embracing its only Middle Eastern
ally — Syria.
There is also a factor of Iran — another Assad supporter. In April 2021, Serbian
Foreign Minister Nikola Selakovic visited Iran to ensure that Tehran remains a
nonrecognizer of Kosovo. Moreover, after Serbia designated the Iranian proxy in
Lebanon — Hezbollah — as a terrorist organization in 2020, Belgrade had to
compensate Tehran in Syria. In addition, the security issue motivates Belgrade
to have a presence in Damascus. The migration crisis caused by Middle Eastern
instability was an unpleasant memory for Serbia as a transit country. The
migration crisis also build up on Serbian fears of terrorism as some of its
citizens from Bosnian-populated Sandzak region and Albanian-populated Presevo
Valley were joining the Islamic State (IS) and other jihadist groups in Syria.
The return of jihadist volunteer fighters to the Balkans is a growing concern
for nations there. Several Serbian citizens were trapped in refugee camps in
Syria after the fall of IS. Embracing Assad can also be domestically popular for
the Serbian government, as there is a tendency to make analogies between
pressures exercised by the West against the Assad regime with the Serbian
experience of the US military interventions against Serbia in the 1990s. In
2019, the late Patriarch Irinej of the Serbian Orthodox Church met Assad in
Damascus. While the Serbian Embassy move is frustrating for EU officials
in Brussels, the episode only speaks of the fact that Serbia cannot alter its
foreign policy at this moment — not with the current stalemate in the EU
integrations process or the unresolved Kosovo dispute.
New Israeli government on mission to rehabilitate ties with Jordan
Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/July 20/2021
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid are working to
rehabilitate the bilateral ties with Jordan after the setbacks to the
relationship under former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.Prime Minister
Naftali Bennett's predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu left no shortage of hot
potatoes on his desk. Some are political time bombs that are still ticking, such
as the deeply rooted enmity between Israel and Jordan.
The importance of the 1994 Israel-Jordan peace agreement for Israel’s national
security cannot be overstated. The same goes for Jordan, which depends on Israel
in many significant aspects, such as the 50 million cubic meters of Sea of
Galilee water that Israel provides Jordan annually, as well as intelligence,
military and economic cooperation. Analysts have long contended that Israeli
power is practically the only deterrence to efforts by dangerous waves of
radicals, such as the Islamic State group, Iranian militias or other subversive
elements to unseat and expel the Hashemite family and establish a de facto
Palestinian state in Jordan. Netanyahu’s successor is troubled by a question:
What made the veteran leader sabotage highly complex and sensitive relations
with the state that shares Israel's longest border? Israeli prime ministers have
always valued relations with Jordan as a strategic anchor and a tremendous
national security asset. Netanyahu obviously knew this, despite reportedly
approving the failed assassination attempt of Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal in
Jordan in 1997 during his first term as prime minister.
When Netanyahu returned to power in 2009, he sought to preserve this important
relationship, but his actions in more recent years defy explanation. His
reluctance, say analysts, brought about the cancelation of the Red-Dead
agreement signed with Jordan under the auspices of the World Bank and various
international funds with sweeping US backing.
The 2015 agreement called for Israel and Jordan to lay down a giant water
pipeline between the Red Sea and the far lower Dead Sea, along which water
desalination facilities would be built to benefit both sides of the arid, empty
Arava Desert they share, with the remaining water and brine to flow down and
replenish the shrinking Dead Sea. In return for Jordanian cooperation on this
project, Israel committed to supply Jordan with an additional 50 million cubic
meters of water produced at an additional desalination plant to the north from
which water would flow to the Sea of Galilee and from there to Jordan.
The agreement served both sides’ economies and agriculture as well as the
stability of their ties and mutual dependence. It is unclear why Netanyahu was
unwilling to go forward with the agreement, already delayed by red tape,
financing difficulties and environmental objections. His unwillingness
humiliated the kingdom and infuriated Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi,
making him one of Israel’s bitterest critics in the Arab arena and crushing
trust between the sides.
Netanyahu’s strange behavior was not confined to the water project. Despite the
recommendations of advisers, in 2017 he held a hero’s welcome for an Israeli
Embassy guard who killed a Jordanian citizen and was rushed back to Israel
(apparently with the kingdom’s approval). Netanyahu invited the guard to his
office and posted a selfie of him grinning and embracing his guest. The event
was the final straw that ended what was left of relations between the two
capitals.
This incident coincided with another crisis in relations prompted by Israel’s
deployment of metal detectors at the entrances to Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem,
one of Islam’s holiest sites. The move prompted Palestinian rioting and clashes
with Jerusalem police. The king was reportedly furious with Netanyahu.
Thus the disruption of relations became complete. Security and intelligence
cooperation was all that remained of the peace agreement signed by the late
Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and King Hussein.
Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid moved to repair relations as soon as
they took office in mid-June. Bennett met secretly at the beginning of July at
the palace in Amman with King Abdullah and brought him the water deal. He came
under fire from the political right, though the goodwill gesture was in fact the
implementation of Israel’s commitment under the Red-Dead deal. The additional
allocation of 50 cubic meters of water a year for the kingdom is only one of
many agreements reached by Abdullah and Bennett at their clandestine meeting.
Word of the meeting was subsequently leaked, generating fury from the
palace.After the two leaders met, it was the foreign ministers' turn Lapid and
Safadi met July 8 near the Allenby Bridge and further advanced the
understandings reached by their bosses. “There was great thirst on the other
side for a renewal of relations, for finding anew a partner in Jerusalem,” a
senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “The
Jordanians had given us the cold shoulder not because they wanted to but because
they had no choice. They started suspecting that Netanyahu was joining those who
insist that Jordan is Palestine. They refused to have anything to do with him.
Now they are relieved and so are we.”
According to diplomatic sources, Israel is planning a long list of agreements
with the kingdom to rehabilitate the relationship and restore several aspects of
cooperation, including additional goodwill gestures. Israel is willing to
further upgrade the water supply that is crucial for the monarchy’s stability on
the condition that Jordan lets Israeli farmers cultivate the border lands that
Israel handed back to Jordan in 2019.
Israel’s loss of the two border enclaves, Naharayim and Tzofar, which Israelis
had farmed for a quarter century, was a direct result of the abysmal relations
between Netanyahu and Abdullah. Under the 1994 peace agreement, Jordan leased
the land to Israel for 25 years with an option to negotiate the contract's
renewal. But the Jordanians refused to even consider negotiating and demanded
the enclaves be handed back as soon as the lease was up. Israel will now strive
to renew the lease. For the first time in a long while, the quest appears
possible.
Will Raisi follow Zarif’s path for reviving Iran nuclear
deal?
Mark Fitzpatrick/Al-Monitor/July 20/2021
Outgoing Iran Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s final report on the Iran
nuclear talks is self-serving in parts, but nonetheless charts a path to closing
the JCPOA talks.
Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/07/will-raisi-follow-zarifs-path-reviving-iran-nuclear-deal#ixzz71Bov4aXE
Outgoing Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s July 12 report to
parliament offers a clear path for completing negotiations over restoring the
2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). All
the incoming administration of President-elect Ebrahim Raisi needs to do is
follow Zarif’s advice to adjust maximalist positions.
This is not so easy, of course; the maximalist demands that all sanctions
imposed by former US President Donald Trump must be lifted, and that this must
be verified before Iran resumes compliance, came from Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei. Had he been willing to compromise, talks could have wrapped up
anytime this spring.
In his 264-page report, Zarif pointed out the many benefits Iran stands to gain.
His take is self-serving and possibly exaggerated to the point of inaccuracy in
parts, yet the gist appears to be correct. If Iran returns to the contours of
the JCPOA, so will the United States, by lifting all sanctions that are contrary
to the accord’s provisions. The Biden administration had already stated this
principle, but has not publicly listed the steps it is willing to take. Zarif’s
report does so in detail, including, for example, designations blacklisting
Khamenei, his office and Raisi as well as a long list of industrial sectors that
would see fetters removed.
The list of measures prospectively to be lifted also includes Trump’s
controversial 2019 designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” (FTO). Removing the FTO label is a red
line for Iran, which knows that no other government entity in the world has been
so tagged. The FTO process was designed to apply to nonstate actors. As a
practical matter, however, removing this label would have little material
impact. Because several other sanctions measures would remain in place against
the IRGC, no foreign firm or bank will want to do business with any Iranian
entity associated with the IRGC.
Lifting the FTO designation nevertheless remains important, including because
the IRGC would then be able to join any negotiations with the United States over
military presence in Afghanistan, Yemen or elsewhere. Biden’s willingness to
take the political heat to remove a measure that was applied in the name of
counterterrorism should be met with a political concession from Iran.
For a country that is so often chastised over its lack of civil liberties, the
transparency of the report is astounding. In the past, Zarif submitted such
reports on a quarterly basis for eight years, but they are rarely this
instructive. Zarif went into detail this time in order both to burnish his
record as he departs the stage and to try to box in his successor.
Who that successor will be is unknown. Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
will likely continue to lead Iran’s negotiating team in Vienna. One likely
choice for Foreign Minister under Raisi is Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who is
leading Raisi’s foreign policy transition team. Amir-Abdollahian took hard-line
positions when he served as ambassador to Bahrain (2007-2010) and as deputy
foreign minister for Arab and African affairs (2011-2017). Another possible pick
for Foreign Minister is former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, who is typically
characterized as ultraconservative. Yet a third possibility is Ali Bagheri, who
was on Jalili’s negotiating team. In any case, the key decision on whether and
when to compromise will be made by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and
ultimately by Khamenei.
If Khamenei allows, Araghchi and the Foreign Ministry will have to find a way to
interpret the supreme leader’s edits creatively. The demand that “all” Trump
sanctions be lifted should mean all sanctions that impact JCPOA conditions.
Zarif’s report was forthright in noting that several non-nuclear-related US
sanctions will remain in place. Khamenei’s requirement that the lifting of
sanctions be verified can be partially met by early oil sales and trade deals.
Some measures will take time, however. The tens of billions of dollars of Iran’s
oil earnings that are currently frozen in foreign banks may need to be
unfettered in stages, for example, in order to dampen exchange market
turbulence.
Iran’s insistence that the United States commit not to renege again on the JCPOA
is understandable but impossible. Biden simply does not have the power to commit
his successor; witness Trump’s actions in withdrawing even from treaties that
had been ratified by the US Congress such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear
Forces Treaty and the Treaty on Open Skies. Iran will have to be satisfied by
the front-loaded benefits of unfrozen funds and oil sales.
The United States and other parties to the negotiations are giving Iran the
benefit of the doubt that it cannot make decisions on such matters before Raisi
takes office Aug. 5. On the other hand, patience is running thin over Iran’s
increasingly stark departures from JCPOA commitments. Uranium enrichment at 60%,
production of uranium metal enriched to 20% and restriction on international
inspectors’ access to the Natanz enrichment facility are all steps designed to
put pressure on Iran’s negotiating partners. The counterproductive effect,
however, has been to raise their dander. Concerned that the negotiations may
fail, the United States reportedly is considering tighter sanctions on Iranian
oil sales to China.
The trying of patience was also evident in Washington’s strong rebuke of
Araghchi’s claim that the United States was holding up an “agreed” prisoner
exchange for political aims. State Department spokesman Ned Price called the
claim “an outrageous effort to deflect blame” for the impasse on returning to
JCPOA compliance. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group tweeted that this
was by far “the most scathing and sharply-worded statement” about Iran coming
from the Biden administration.
Ideally, a prisoner exchange would pave the way for completing the JCPOA talks.
Restoring commitments to the nuclear accord is in the interest of all parties.
Zarif made it abundantly clear in his report that he knows this to be true for
Iran. Let's hope the Raisi team agrees.
Countering Iran with Iraq and Israel playing ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’
Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/20 July ,2021
As Israel seeks to develop relationships with Arab neighbors around the region,
one country that is often overlooked by commentators is Iraq. It’s likely that
the unstable war-torn country is high on Israel’s radar to cement closer ties.
If a proper relationship built on goodwill were to happen it would benefit both
in their respective battles with Iran. It would become an enormous step in
efforts to counter Iran’s presence in the country. Presenting Tehran as a common
threat to both nations is a selling point that Baghdad will consider. Given
Iran’s growing influence in Iraq, finding support in the Middle East’s melting
point is no easy task.The incumbent Iraqi government is keen to foster closer
relations with Washington to combat Iran’s growing influence in parts of the
country.
While a visit to Washington by Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi planned
for next week must include discussions about the Iranian dilemma, it’s clear
that the US has no appetite to get dragged fully into the quagmire that has
become Iraq.
The meeting will resonate more if the Israeli question is put forward.
Washington will happily play an effective role, by bringing together two of its
allies to follow a favorable path in an ever-widening conflict with Iran. It has
become a complicated sore in the US’s Middle East foreign policy.
Israel and Iraq have had their own turbulent history. Following the American
invasion in 2003, the antagonism and finger pointing was based around a
contested pretext of possessing weapons of mass destruction.
By coming together with US support, Washington can allay Israeli fears as the
Vienna talks conclude favorably for Iran. Helping to counter Iran’s threat in
Iraq offers Washington positive PR.
Clearly, with the lifting of sanctions, Tehran will have access to frozen funds
amounting to billions of dollars for disposal to its regional militias in Yemen,
Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
The expectations that Iran will use the fresh funds to tackle poverty or develop
infrastructure are low. One needs to remember that Iraq’s popular perception of
Israel is as an enemy, not a friend. Public sentiment entrenched in Iraq pushes
towards Arab Nationalism. This view hasn’t changed over several decades, and
remains a stumbling block to relationship building, for now. There is little
doubt that developing relations between Iraq and Israel is highly difficult, but
this doesn’t necessarily mean that a mutually successful bridge is impossible.
Ways and means is essential.
Putting aside local politics, issues and policies, successive Iraqi regimes have
always shared one common denominator: a deep and unnegotiable hostility to
Israel.
Israel too, of course, reciprocated the hostility and was always eager to reduce
Iraq’s growing military capacities. In 1981, it destroyed the Iraqi nuclear
reactor fearing that the country would join the nuclear club creating a de facto
balance of power, something it couldn’t stand for. An open public embrace
between Israel and Iraq telling the world that they are now friends, of course
is the perfect play, but we do not live in a perfect world. Will Israeli
military venture into Iraq as comrades in arms to fight the threat of Iran? No,
of course not. But, with the exception of those affiliated with Iran, most
Iraqis are frustrated with Tehran’s growing influence in their domestic affairs.
What’s the best way to mitigate it?
If not a full scale military confrontation, then a war of mutual subterfuge is
the obvious route. Israeli Special Forces lurk in the shadows across much of the
Middle East, and strike quickly and effectively. Lebanon, Syria and Iraq have
all experienced firsthand Israel’s military capabilities.
Is it that far-fetched to think Israel and Iraq will build their relationship
quietly at first, and out of the gaze of the public, to collaborate in neutering
Iran effectively? Will Baghdad turn a blind eye, and allow Israel to target
Iranian assets while publically condemning their actions?
Since the state was established, Washington has always been on hand to offer a
helping hand to Israel to preserve its military supremacy in the Middle East.
The United States has been Israel’s staunchest ally for decades.
With the drastic changes that developed after America’s invasion of Iraq, events
have transformed it into a different country. A powerful and a weak state all in
one. An almost failed state with widespread corruption at all levels of
government, while at the same time, an indispensable state with significant
regional power.
It still needs help.
Following a strategy where “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” can greatly benefit
Israel and Iraq if they join forces to counter the growing threat of Iran in the
region.