English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 16/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
The God who made the world and everything in it, he who is Lord of heaven and earth, does not live in shrines made by human hands
Acts of the Apostles 17/16-20./22-24.30-34/:”While Paul was waiting for them in Athens, he was deeply distressed to see that the city was full of idols. So he argued in the synagogue with the Jews and the devout persons, and also in the market-place every day with those who happened to be there. Also some Epicurean and Stoic philosophers debated with him. Some said, ‘What does this babbler want to say?’ Others said, ‘He seems to be a proclaimer of foreign divinities.’ (This was because he was telling the good news about Jesus and the resurrection.) So they took him and brought him to the Areopagus and asked him, ‘May we know what this new teaching is that you are presenting? It sounds rather strange to us, so we would like to know what it means.’ Then Paul stood in front of the Areopagus and said, ‘Athenians, I see how extremely religious you are in every way. For as I went through the city and looked carefully at the objects of your worship, I found among them an altar with the inscription, “To an unknown god.” What therefore you worship as unknown, this I proclaim to you. The God who made the world and everything in it, he who is Lord of heaven and earth, does not live in shrines made by human hands, While God has overlooked the times of human ignorance, now he commands all people everywhere to repent, because he has fixed a day on which he will have the world judged in righteousness by a man whom he has appointed, and of this he has given assurance to all by raising him from the dead.’When they heard of the resurrection of the dead, some scoffed; but others said, ‘We will hear you again about this.’ At that point Paul left them. But some of them joined him and became believers, including Dionysius the Areopagite and a woman named Damaris, and others with them.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 15-16/2021
Hariri gives up cabinet task, plunges Lebanon into uncertainty
Hariri Announces Resignation, Says 'May God Help the Country'
Hariri Says Won't Name Successor but May Grant Confidence to Govt.
Grillo, Shea Brief Aoun on KSA Meeting Results, Urge Govt. Formation
Paris, U.N. React to Hariri’s Resignation as Protests Engulf Lebanon
Timeline: Lebanon's Spiraling Crisis and Political Impasse
Amnesty Urges End to Immunity in Beirut Blast Probe
Pharmacies on Open-ended Strike over Medicine Shortages
‘It’s hell’: Lebanon’s pharmacists, doctors fear more deaths as crisis worsens
God help this country:’ Lebanon in limbo as PM-designate Hariri quits
Lebanese entitled to ask ‘What about tomorrow?’/Tala Jarjour/Arab News/July 15/2021
The Laundromat: Hezbollah’s Money-Laundering and Drug-Trafficking Networks in Latin America/Emanuele Ottolenghi/The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies/July 15/2021
IDF concerned crisis in Lebanon could have repercussions along the border/Anna Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/July 15/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 15-16/2021
Iranian dissidents to visit Israel next week
IDF requests billions in budget increase to boost Iran attack capabilities
Iran warns it can enrich uranium to nuclear weapons grade
Masih Alinejad: How Iran threatened and attempted to kidnap a US journalist
Facebook says Iran-based spies targeted defense workers in US, Europe
Analysis: Despite talk of options on Iran, US has few good ones
WHO Experts Warn of 'Strong Likelihood' of More Dangerous Covid Variants
Regime Shelling Kills 9 Civilians In NW Syria
Pakistan Confirms Taliban Have Afghan Border Town
Taliban Offer 3-Month Truce in Return for Prisoner Release
At Least 20 Dead in Germany as Storms Lash Europe
U.S. Warns Egypt over Crackdown on Rights Activists
Israel troops arrest dozens of Palestinian university students
Yemeni government scores fresh military gains in Marib province
France threatens sanctions for Libyan groups blocking political process
Iraq, US discuss potential withdrawal of foreign combat forces
Iraqi cleric Sadr says he won’t take part in October election
Bashagha looks for new role in Libya, does not hide political ambitions
Kuwaitis welcome unbridled Turkish influence, heap praise on Erdogan
Shia cleric Sadr to stay clear of Iraq’s October elections, in blow to Kadhimi
Loopholes in Riyadh Agreement exacerbate tensions in Yemen
Populism in Egypt’s parliament reveals decline in political awareness
Economic decline generates unfavourable prospects for Erdogan

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 15-16/2021
Who will listen to the cries of ordinary Muslims In Canada?/Tarek Fatah/Toronto Sun/July 15/2021
'Truth is Buoyant' for Nations Seeking Global Leadership/Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/July 15, 2021
Opinion: Canadian government policy is strengthening Iran’s malign regime/Tzvi Kahn/National Post/Jul 15/2021
Iraq’s PM has two choices — change or further stagnation/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/July 15/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 15-16/2021
Hariri gives up cabinet task, plunges Lebanon into uncertainty
The Arab Weekly/July 15/2021
BEIRUT – Lebanese politician Saad al-Hariri abandoned his effort to form a new government on Thursday, saying it was clear he would not be able to reach an agreement with President Michel Aoun, plunging the country deeper into crisis. Lebanon is suffering an economic depression the World Bank has described as one of the most severe in modern history. Its currency has lost more than 90% of its value in less than two years, leading to spiraling poverty and crippling shortages. “It is clear we will not be able to agree with his Excellency the president,” Hariri told reporters after meeting Aoun for barely 20 minutes. “That is why I excuse myself from government formation.” With no obvious alternative for the post, which must be filled by a Sunni Muslim in Lebanon’s sectarian system, there is little hope of a government that can start fixing the economic situation. Hariri said Aoun had requested fundamental changes to a cabinet line-up he had presented to him on Wednesday. Aoun had told Hariri that they would not be able to agree, Hariri said. There was no immediate comment from the presidency. Hariri was designated to form the new government in October, after the resignation of Prime Minister Hassan Diab in the aftermath of the Aug. 4 Beirut port explosion. Diab continues in a caretaker capacity. The development is likely to plunge the country further into chaos and uncertainty. Lebanon is going through an unprecedented economic crisis, described by the World Bank as one of the worst in the world in 150 years. Hariri met Wednesday with Aoun following a quick trip to Cairo, a close ally. Hariri, 51, resigned from his post in October 2019 in a bow to nationwide protests which had demanded major reforms and condemned the entire political class. A year later, he was named once again to the post by parliament amid a crippling economic crisis and months after the massive explosion that compounded the country’s woes.

Hariri Announces Resignation, Says 'May God Help the Country'
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/Associated Press/July 15/2021
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri on Thursday announced that he is quitting the government formation mission, following talks with President Michel Aoun in Baabda. “I met with the President and we held consultations over the government. During the discussions, the President requested essential changes and we discussed the issue related to the vote of confidence and the issue of naming the two Christian ministers,” Hariri said after a 20-minute meeting. “It is clear that the stance on this issue has not changed and it is clear that we will not agree with the President,” he added. “I asked President Aoun if he needs more time to discuss the line-up but he answered that it seems that we won’t agree, that’s why I submitted to him my resignation and may God help the country,” Hariri went on to say. Hariri had been nominated for the post in October 2020, as a long-running political and economic crisis intensified following a devastating port blast in Beirut in August that killed more than 200 people and forced the previous government to resign. The development is likely to plunge the country further into chaos and uncertainty. Lebanon is going through an unprecedented economic crisis, described by the World Bank as one of the worst in the world in 150 years. Hariri's move comes after weeks of a stalemate in renewed efforts to resolve the political deadlock and following a quick trip to Cairo, a close ally. In a meeting with Aoun on Wednesday, Hariri had proposed a new 24-minister Cabinet line-up and said he expected a response from Aoun by Thursday. Hariri, 51, resigned from his post in October 2019 in a bow to nationwide protests which had demanded major reforms and condemned the entire political class. A year later, he was named once again to the post by parliament amid a crippling economic crisis and months after the massive explosion that compounded the country's woes.

Hariri Says Won't Name Successor but May Grant Confidence to Govt.
Naharnet/July 15/2021
Resigned Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri on Thursday blamed President Michel Aoun for the failure to form a new government, as he announced that he would not nominate a successor for the PM post. “I nominated myself to form a government according to the French initiative, which means a government of specialists, and today I apologized for not being able to form ‘Michel Aoun’s government,’” Hariri said in a live interview on al-Jadeed TV, only a few hours after he announced his resignation as PM-designate. “I resigned in 2019 because I wanted a government of specialists and had I formed ‘Michel Aoun's government’ I would not have been able to rescue the country,” Hariri added. “There is camp that has decided to torture the country and take us to hell and all the obstacles that I faced were created by this camp,” the ex-PM went on to say, referring to Aoun and his party. Noting that he quit the formation mission because Aoun “did not want to form a government,” Hariri added that “when the President decides the date of the consultations,” he would talk to his allies and “decide what to do.”Hitting out at Aoun, the ex-PM said: “Because Saad Hariri is Sunni and patriotic, he is prohibited from naming ministers and only President Aoun has the right to nominate!”As for the upcoming period, Hariri said “the solution is to form a government as soon as possible, whichever government it may be, but what's important is that they work on the IMF program.”“We will not nominate anyone, but we won't obstruct nor paralyze the country, and we might grant the government our confidence if it's a good government,” Hariri added. “I have sacrificed myself for the sake of the country,” he said. Told that Aoun had considered him to be “like his son,” Hariri answered: “And I made him president, but this period has ended.”“Hizbullah did not exert enough effort to form the government,” Hariri said, adding that he does not believe that the party had pressed Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil to facilitate the government’s formation. Asked whether he "thanks the Shiite duo", Hariri said he I expressed gratitude to Speaker Nabih Berri exclusively. “I want to thank Speaker Berri for standing by me during this period, and his main objective was the formation of the government,” Hariri added. “There are upcoming elections and we will confront all those who opposed the French initiative,” the ex-PM went on to say.

Grillo, Shea Brief Aoun on KSA Meeting Results, Urge Govt. Formation
Naharnet/July 15/2021
President Michel Aoun was briefed Thursday by the French and American ambassadors to Beirut on the results of the meetings held in Riyadh with Saudi officials. The American and French ambassadors handed Aoun a joint letter from the foreign ministers of the United States and France in which they affirmed their countries' concern with the Lebanese situation and stressed the need to form a new government. The ambassadors, Anne Grillo and Dorothy Shea, had held talks last Thursday with Saudi officials in Riyadh to help Lebanon out of its unprecedented economic and political crises. Their embassies tweeted at the time that the "important trilateral consultations" aimed to find ways to "support the Lebanese people and stabilize the economy." This rare joint visit had followed a meeting of the foreign ministers of the U.S., France and Saudi Arabia in Italy, in which they discussed Lebanon's crisis.

Paris, U.N. React to Hariri’s Resignation as Protests Engulf Lebanon
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/Associated Press/July 15/2021
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said Thursday that PM-designate Saad Hariri's resignation was proof that "Lebanese officials are unable to find a way out of the crisis," accusing them of "cynical self-destruction."A spokesman for the U.N. meanwhile described the development as regrettable, reiterating calls for a government capable of addressing the country's "numerous challenges" to be put together rapidly.
International donors remain adamant that a government must be established before they can open credit lines, but political squabbling among Lebanese factions has repeatedly stymied those efforts, amid soaring poverty rates. Hariri's announcement -- nearly a year after a deadly explosion at Beirut port forced the last government to resign -- takes the political process back to square one. There is a clear risk of many more months of drift.
President Michel Aoun will now have to call on parliament to pick a new premier-designate, who will be tasked with assembling another cabinet which in turn will have to be approved by the president and political factions. Hariri's decision followed a meeting with Aoun over his draft cabinet lineup. "There were amendments requested by the president, which I considered substantial," Hariri told reporters after the meeting.
"It is clear that... we will not be able to agree," he added, noting that the president had expressed the same opinion.
Sporadic protests
Aoun's office hit back, saying that Hariri "was not ready to discuss amendments of any kind... (leaving) the door to discussion... closed." Hariri has previously repeatedly accused Aoun of hampering the process by insisting on a cabinet share that would effectively give his team a decision-making veto. The president's team, for its part, claims that it is only seeking a balanced distribution of ministerial seats. The premier-designate's exit leaves Lebanon rudderless amid a deepening economic crisis that the World Bank has branded as one of the planet's worst since the mid-19th century. The Lebanese pound, officially pegged to the dollar at 1,500, plummeted to a new record low beyond 20,000 on the black market after Hariri's announcement, prompting renewed street protests and road closures in a country that is struggling to fund basic imports such as fuel and medicines. A few dozen protesters clashed with soldiers who fired rubber bullets to try to clear roads near a major sports stadium in Beirut, an AFP correspondent said. The Lebanese Red Cross, which dispatched three ambulances to the area, said people were wounded, but did not specify how many. Protests also engulfed other parts of the country as the highway linking Beirut to the South was blocked in several locations. Hariri had been nominated prime minister designate in October 2020, following a devastating explosion at Beirut port in August caused by unsafely stored fertilizer that killed more than 200 people.
Sectarian cleavage
He is the second candidate to fail at forming a government in less than 12 months.
With cabinet berths and parliamentary seats distributed according to religious sects, Hariri's exit will further complicate negotiations, as he is widely seen as the pivotal representative of the country's Sunni Muslims. For months, Hariri and Aoun have traded blame for delays in establishing a government. The international community has pledged millions of dollars in humanitarian aid since last year's port blast, but made the money conditional on installing a government capable of tackling corruption.
Hariri, who has previously led three governments in Lebanon, replaced as premier designate Mustafa Adib, a relatively unknown diplomat. Adib had been nominated in late August but threw in the towel nearly a month later, because of resistance from factions over his proposed line-up. Hariri's decision came as Lebanon prepares to mark the first anniversary of the August 4 explosion -- its worst peace-time tragedy -- which many blame on negligence by political leaders. While the port disaster forced the last government, led by outgoing prime minister Hassan Diab, to resign, he and his cabinet have lingered on in a caretaker capacity. Nabil Bou Monsef, a political commentator in An-Nahar newspaper, said that naming a new prime minister would now be even more difficult. "We may not be able to form a government or find an alternative to Saad Hariri," he said. "President Michel Aoun will now consider himself victorious in getting rid of Saad Hariri. But in reality, (Aoun) has opened the gates of hell for the whole country and his rule."The 51-year-old Hariri has served as prime minister twice, the first time from 2009-2011. His second time came in 2016, in an uneasy partnership with Aoun, an ally of Hizbullah, which is backed by Iran. At the time, Hariri had backed Aoun for president, ending nearly two years for Lebanon without a head of state, while he stepped in as premier. In 2017, in a reflection of a feud between Saudi Arabia and its regional rival Iran, Hariri suddenly resigned in a televised address from Riyadh and accused Hizbullah of taking Lebanon hostage. The move was seen as forced on Hariri by the Saudis, and he was quickly restored to power, but it signaled the end of his traditional alliance with the Sunni regional powerhouse. Then, in October 2019, Hariri resigned, bowing to nationwide protests demanding major reforms. A year later, parliament named him once again to the post, months after the government of Hassan Diab resigned in the wake of the massive Aug. 4 explosion in Beirut's port. More than 200 people died in the blast that defaced the city and injured thousands, compounding Lebanon's woes. An investigation continues into what caused it.

Timeline: Lebanon's Spiraling Crisis and Political Impasse
Agence France Presse/July 15/2021
Lebanon has been mired since late 2019 in a deep economic and financial crisis, exacerbated by a political deadlock which intensified on Thursday when prime minister-designate Saad Hariri stepped down.
Dollar shortages
Anxiety at the lack of availability of dollars emerges on September 29, 2019, when hundreds of people take to the streets of central Beirut to protest economic hardship.
Among the worst hit are petrol station owners, who need dollars to pay their suppliers. But media report that banks and exchange offices are limiting dollar sales for fear of running out.
Protests
Mass protests follow a government announcement on October 17 of a planned tax on voice calls made over messaging services such as WhatsApp. With the economy already in crisis, many see the tax as the last straw, with some demanding "the fall of the regime".
The government of Saad Hariri scraps the tax the same day. But protests continue over the next weeks, culminating in huge demonstrations calling for an overhaul of the ruling class in place for decades, and accused of corruption. Hariri's government resigns in late October under pressure from the street.
Default
Lebanon, whose debt burden is equivalent to nearly 170 percent of its gross domestic product, announces in March 2020 that it will default on its entire debt of a $1.2-billion Eurobond. The next month, after three nights of violent clashes in Tripoli, then prime minister Hassan Diab says Lebanon will seek help from the International Monetary Fund after the government approves a plan to rescue the economy.
But negotiations with the IMF quickly go off the rails.
Catastrophic explosion
A massive explosion on August 4 at Beirut's port devastates entire quarters of the city, killing more than 200 people, injuring at least 6,500 others and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. The government says the blast appears to have been caused by a fire igniting tons of ammonium nitrate left unsecured in a warehouse for six years.
The blast inflames popular anger, which had been put on hold due to the pandemic.
Top officials are investigated over the explosion, but not a single politician was arrested.
Political impasse
Diab announces the resignation of his government on August 10, 2020, after just over seven months in power. Mustafa Adib, a diplomat, is named as Lebanon's new premier vowing to make reforms and a deal with the IMF. But Adib bows out after less than a month. Hariri, already prime minister three times, is named on October 22.
One of worst crises
The authorities announce in February 2021 that the price of bread will be increased by around a fifth. In June, the World Bank says Lebanon's economic collapse is likely to rank among the world's worst financial crises since the mid-19th century. Later that month, protesters try to storm central bank offices in the northern city of Tripoli and Sidon in the south, after the national currency plunges to a new record low on the black market. Days later, the government hikes fuel prices by more than 30 percent as it reduces subsidies and customers queue for short supplies at service stations. Lebanon's medicine importers on July 4 say they have run out of key drugs, and warn of more shortages. Hariri steps down  After nine months of horsetrading, Hariri steps down on July 15, saying he was unable to form a government.

Amnesty Urges End to Immunity in Beirut Blast Probe
Agence France Presse/July 15/2021
Rights group Amnesty International has urged Lebanon to lift the immunity of officials summoned in the Beirut port blast probe, warning not doing so would be an "obstruction of justice." The detonation of a huge stockpile of fertilizer at the port on August 4 last year killed more than 200 people, injured thousands, and wrecked huge swathes of the capital. It emerged afterwards that officials had known about the explosive substance being stored unsafely at the port for years. But almost a year later an investigation has yet to hold anyone to account, and the families of the victims say political interference has derailed the process. The lead investigator, Judge Tareq al-Bitar, has requested immunity be lifted so he can question a top intelligence official and three former ministers in the case, but so far to no avail. "We stand with these families in calling on Lebanese authorities to immediately lift all immunities granted to officials, regardless of their role or position," said Lynn Maalouf, Amnesty's deputy director for the Middle East and North Africa. "Any failure to do so is an obstruction of justice, and violates the rights of victims and families to truth, justice and reparations." Amnesty's plea came after Lebanese police fired tear gas on Tuesday during scuffles with demonstrators outside the home of caretaker Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi. Fahmi earlier this month rejected a request by the investigating judge to question Abbas Ibrahim, the head of the General Security bureau, one of the country's top security agencies. Parliament has said it needed more evidence before it waived protection for three former ministers who are also lawmakers, a position that a judicial source said the lead investigator has rejected. On Wednesday afternoon, dozens of relatives of the victims again gathered outside the main law courts in Beirut to demand justice, holding up pictures of their lost loved ones. The government stepped down after the port explosion, but has remained in a caretaker capacity through 11 months of endless political wrangling over the make-up of the next cabinet.

Pharmacies on Open-ended Strike over Medicine Shortages
Naharnet/July 15/2021
Pharmacies have announced an open-ended strike as of Friday over medicine shortages, “until the Ministry of Health approves the price indexes and provides protection for pharmacies.”Pharmacists have been facing “daily harassments” that can be “life threatening” as a result of the shortage of medicines in pharmacies, the association of pharmacy owners stated. “The Ministry of Interior and the security forces are supposed to protect the citizens," the association said, adding that the Minister of Health “did not keep his promise” regarding the issuing of lists of subsidized and non-subsidized medicines based on the agreement between the Ministry and the Central Bank. Pharmacists mentioned that they had repeatedly asked the Minister to expedite the rationalization of subsidies to secure people’s needs. The minister is not “taking into consideration” that patients are not finding the treatments they need in pharmacies since importers and warehouses are refusing to deliver until the lists are issued, the pharmacy owners added.

‘It’s hell’: Lebanon’s pharmacists, doctors fear more deaths as crisis worsens
Tamara Abueish, Al Arabiya English/15 July ,2021
As the economic crisis deepens in Lebanon, doctors and pharmacists fear the medicine shortage will result in more deaths. Anger boiled over in the country this week after a 10-month-old girl died in Mazboud village on Saturday. It came after she was unable to receive adequate hospital treatment due to severe medical shortages, her family said. Jouri al-Sayyid’s lungs failed after they became inflamed due to an untreated three-day fever, according to her family. With no medicines available at the hospital she was admitted to and all nearby pharmacies closed, the baby girl died in her father’s arms.
Drug importers have warned that Lebanon has already exhausted much of its medicine supplies, and the central bank has yet to pay the millions of dollars it owes to foreign suppliers. Already reeling from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the consequences of the deadly Beirut explosion, the currency has lost over 90 percent of its value. With the health sector barely surviving, health officials warn that without intervention it will soon succumb to overwhelming pressure.
“It’s hell. We are living in misery, quite frankly, because we can’t help people solve their problems. Even chronic medicines are not available. Even Panadol is sometimes not available,” Dr. Khaldoun al-Sharif, a Lebanese pharmacist, told Al Arabiya English. Hundreds of pharmacists – who have been on the frontline of the medical crisis– went on strike on Friday over the lack of medicine stocks available to send a message to the health ministry and importers that they will no longer bear the brunt of their incompetence.
“Who is in front of the people in Lebanon? The pharmacists. You cannot reach the supplier. You cannot reach the importer. You cannot reach the ministry. So you will go to the pharmacy and you will not find your needed medicines, and a fight ends up taking place in front of the pharmacy,” al-Sharif said. The central bank has said it is working with the health ministry to identify and prioritize medication and medical supplies that the government can continue subsidizing, Dr Wassim Kalaajieh, a pulmonologist and the head of the Medical Sciences Department at the Lebanese University, told Al Arabiya English. Medicines used to treat chronic diseases and cancer are a priority, but a full list has yet to be finalized.
Christine Abi Khaled, head of the pharmacy at the Al Koura Hospital in northern Lebanon, told Al Arabiya English that as hospitals continue to exhaust their drug supplies they have had to look for alternative medicines to give patients who underwent surgery or are undergoing treatment for chronic diseases.
“There are so many medicines that we use for patients who undergo surgery that are no longer available. We automatically look for an alternative drug, but even then the alternative is not always available,” she explained.
Abi Khaled revealed that doctors and pharmacists are living in a state of helplessness where treating their patients properly will become impossible. Healthcare professionals fear the worst if any of their own family members fall ill.
“The situation is very difficult because when a patient is sleeping at the hospital [and recovering from surgery], you have to provide a treatment no matter what. It’s very stressful. In the end, you are afraid and you start thinking if my family got sick, I can’t control anything,” she said.
Hospitals and pharmacies in the country are running out of drugs and medical supplies – whether its post-op medicines or medical equipment to conduct surgeries – and it’s happening quickly, Lebanese cardiologist Dr. Taleb Nayef Shehadeh told Al Arabiya English. “The situation is going from bad to worse, and fast, because the supplies of medical equipment and other medicines in warehouses have started to finish and are of course at threat of being permanently unavailable,” he said.
Because of the shortage of drugs across the country, all patients who are undergoing surgery must ensure they have a sufficient supply of medication prior to their operation, Shehadeh explained. “I tell the patient’s family that they must provide these medicines because if we did the operation and you couldn’t provide these, then [the patient’s] life is at threat.”“We have never had to do this before. We usually give them a list [of medicines they have to take] after the surgery. But now we tell them before. If you can’t provide these drugs then they’re better off not doing the surgery,” the cardiologist said.
Worried they will soon run out of essential medicines, Lebanese people are now relying on their relatives living abroad to bring back anything they can on their visits.
“Imagine you go to a pharmacy and they tell you most of the items you want are out of stock. We are bringing so many things with us,” Dubai resident Hasan Ezzedine told Al Arabiya English ahead of his trip to Lebanon.
“We are going to take Panadol. At the pharmacies they don’t sell Panadol. They only give you a sheet. We are also taking vitamins. Most of the pharmacies are closed or if they are not closed they don’t have anything. Apart from medicines, we are also bringing rice, bread, and pampers. Everything is becoming too expensive.”Abi Khaled summed up the precarious predicament Lebanon faces with the ever dwindling availability of medicines. “The situation is going from bad to worse. You can say now we are living in hell,” she said. The Ministry of Health did not respond to a request for comment.

God help this country:’ Lebanon in limbo as PM-designate Hariri quits
Najia Houssari/Arab News/July 15/2021
President rejects 24-member cabinet lineup
Angry protests spread as pound hits new low
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri stepped down on Thursday, citing “key differences” with President Michel Aoun after nine months of political wrangling that failed to form a government for the crisis-ridden country. Following his second meeting with the president in the past 24 hours, Hariri announced that “Aoun’s position has not changed.”The two men held their 19th meeting on Wednesday, with Hariri presenting a lineup for a 24-member cabinet. “God help this country,” Hariri said. “Aoun requested fundamental changes to the cabinet lineup I had presented to him on Wednesday, related to the naming of Christian ministers. He told me that we would not be able to reach an agreement.” Aoun’s office hit back in a statement, saying that Hariri “was not ready to discuss amendments of any kind.” The president said he would set a date for binding parliamentary consultations as soon as possible to assign an alternative figure to take over the task of forming a government. Following Hariri’s move, the Lebanese pound hit a new low and was selling for higher than LBP20,000 to the dollar on the black market. The resignation and the sharp rise in the price of the dollar sparked angry protests that spread in Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli and Baalbek.

Lebanese entitled to ask ‘What about tomorrow?’
Tala Jarjour/Arab News/July 15/2021
Protesters destroyed restaurants and cafes and expelled customers from these establishments in the southern city of Tyre. In Beirut, streets were blocked and there were clashes with soldiers in the vicinity of Beirut Arab University, leaving some injured.
In Tripoli, there were repeated calls through loudspeakers for people to take to the streets. Relations between Aoun and Hariri were under great strain because of the political differences and disputes between the president and his political party, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), on one side and Hariri’s Future Movement on the other. Dr. Harith Suleiman, an academic and political writer, said he was not shocked to see Lebanon reach this impasse as Aoun had been “hindering all attempts” to form a rescue government for the past nine months.
“Aoun does not want Hariri to head the government and is insisting on giving the blocking third to himself and his political party to be able to sack the government whenever he feels like it,” he told Arab News. “He wants the blocking third to be solely given for his party, without Hezbollah, because he does want Hezbollah to be able to apply pressure in case it was to support a presidential candidate other than the FPM’s candidate, Gebran Bassil.
“It is not easy now to name a well-respected Sunni figure who would resist Aoun and his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, to form a government that would stop the collapse. Bassil wants a premier who would be willing to work for him and take his orders.”
Regarding the failure of foreign pressure to reach a solution in Lebanon, Suleiman added: “We will remain hostages until the conclusion of the American-Iranian talks in Vienna. How can foreign countries ask us to save ourselves while we are hostages? Can the kidnapped rebel against their kidnappers?”
Former lawmaker Fares Souaid said Aoun was still in the presidential palace “only because of Hezbollah.”
“In the confrontation of political forces, the public opinion and the Arab and international decision-making bodies, the situation is worse than dangerous,” he added.
The US State Department said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken would discuss with his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian the efforts exerted to address the situation in Lebanon, adding that “Lebanon’s leaders must form a government able to carry out reforms to end the crisis.”
On Thursday, the US ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea and her French counterpart Anne Grillo handed a joint letter to Aoun from Blinken and Le Drian in which they stressed “their countries’ interest in the Lebanese situation” and “the need to form a government soon to address the critical situation that Lebanon is facing.”France on Thursday reiterated its commitment to supporting the Lebanese while sources said that French presidential envoy Patrick Durel met Mohamed Raad, head of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc, on Wednesday night.
During a celebration on France’s national day, Grillo addressed the Lebanese and said: “This celebration is held this year in the context of the solidarity that we have been expressing to you for several months, and especially after Aug. 4, 2020, the day of the Beirut port explosion.
“Once again today, I am reiterating to you that France, the French people, and the French residents in Lebanon will always support you. The situation today is urgent and pressing. France has always sought to gather support for Lebanon. At the initiative of the French president and with the support of the UN, a third international conference to support the Lebanese people will be held on Aug. 4. This date will constitute a new milestone ... following the two previous conferences that helped raise €250 million ($295.07 million) for Lebanon, including €80 million from France.”

The Laundromat: Hezbollah’s Money-Laundering and Drug-Trafficking Networks in Latin America
Emanuele Ottolenghi/The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies/July 15/2021
Executive Summary
On January 6, 2021, the Gulf news network Al Arabiya published an explosive revelation. In late 2016, a high-placed Hezbollah operative named Nasser Abbas Bahmad came to what is known as the Tri-Border Area (TBA), where the frontiers of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay meet. His apparent mission: establish a supply line of multi-ton shipments of cocaine from Latin America to overseas markets in order to generate funds for the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah. Investigative pieces soon followed in the Argentinian and Paraguayan press. And they are onto something: a law enforcement source from one of the three countries told this author, on condition of anonymity, that Bahmad and his business partner, Australian-Lebanese national Hanan Hamdan, were put on a US watchlist in December 2020.
Yet for all the stories reveal, much remains murky.
Over the past decades, Hezbollah has built a well-oiled, multibillion-dollar money-laundering and drug-trafficking machine in Latin America that cleans organized crime’s ill-gotten gains through multiple waypoints in the Western hemisphere, West Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. Traditionally, Hezbollah used the TBA’s illicit economy as a hub for money-laundering—less so for cocaine trafficking. For years, Hezbollah-linked drug traffickers in the TBA moved only relatively small quantities of cocaine. Multi-ton shipments are another story.
The large cocaine shipments tied to Hezbollah’s money-laundering networks used to flow from Colombia and Venezuela, and with good reason. Colombia remains Latin America’s largest producer of the white powder, and Venezuela, under the Iran-friendly narco-regime of Nicolas Maduro, is a key transit point for cocaine shipments. If Hezbollah is now involved in establishing a major cocaine supply line in the TBA, something must have changed in its modus operandi. Have Hezbollah’s trade routes shifted?
As if that were not puzzling enough, here is another mystery the media revelations leave unsolved. By December 2017, Bahmad—once a film producer known for his skill as a propagandist but with seemingly no business experience—had left the area, never to return. GTG Global Trading Group S.A., the company he established only a few months before disappearing, lies dormant to this day. Why did Bahmad vanish before the first consignment of his product shipped from Paraguay? Did local authorities thwart his mission? Did someone snitch on him? Or did the producer produce—that is, did he accomplish his mission, leaving no reason for him to stay in the TBA? Did he fool everyone, establish his supply line, and place it in trusted hands before vanishing?
Based on dozens of interviews with confidential sources, documents obtained from regional intelligence informants, and open-source research, this study reveals the singular story of Nasser Abbas Bahmad and his foray into Latin America. His story in turn illustrates how Hezbollah established its largest financial laundromat in Latin America, and how, despite efforts by US and South American law enforcement agencies, it is running at full speed and bankrolling the arming of enemies of America and Israel.
Here is how the laundromat works, and what Washington can do to stop it.
*Emanuele Ottolenghi is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington, D.C.-based, nonpartisan think tank focusing on national security and foreign policy. Follow him on Twitter @eottolenghi.

IDF concerned crisis in Lebanon could have repercussions along the border
Anna Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/July 15/2021
411th Battalion Commander Lt.-Col. Raz Haimlich said that it "can go either way."
With the Lebanese economy in a free fall, the IDF is concerned there may be an increase of drug smuggling and infiltrations of migrant workers or refugees along the northern border. “The Lebanese economy is not good, and that can lead to things happening on the border,” Lt.-Col. Raz Haimlich, commander of the Artillery Corps Fire Brigade 411th “Keren” Battalion, told The Jerusalem Post. “I’m always ready for something to happen... whether it’s drugs being smuggled or people infiltrating, looking for work. I think the work that the IDF is doing will stop people from trying to smuggle.”
But “it can go either way,” he said. Last Friday, troops under his command helped thwart an attempt to smuggle 43 pistols and ammunition from Lebanon near Ghajar, the Alawite-Arab village astride the border between Lebanon and the Israeli Golan. It was one of the largest smuggling attempts in years and was worth about NIS 2.7 million ($820,000), Haimlich said. “It was the largest smuggling attempt, and we can see that it could be connected to the economic collapse of Lebanon,” he said.
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Some 77% of Lebanese households don’t have enough money to buy food, according to a recent assessment released by UNICEF. The country’s medicine importers have said they have run out of hundreds of essential drugs, and electricity outages and gas shortages are commonplace.
UNICEF has started giving cash handouts in US dollars to the families of some 70,000 Lebanese, Syrian and Palestinian children at risk of “child labor, early marriage or exclusion from schooling” due to the crisis, Reuters reported Wednesday. The Lebanese Armed Force is also feeling the economic crisis, with soldiers earning only $400 to $500 a month. It is offering tourists helicopter rides for $150 in an effort to make money. The IDF has seen a concerning connection between criminal networks and terrorism in the smuggling of drugs and weapons into Israel from southern Lebanon.
With the situation in Lebanon continuing to deteriorate, some migrant workers have tried infiltrating into Israel. In June, two Turkish men succeeded in crossing the border and were caught 11 hours later. Haimlich’s battalion has responded to several incidents along the Lebanese border, sometimes with artillery fire, including in mid-May during Operation Guardian of the Walls, when Lebanese rioters damaged the border fence and crossed into Israel near Metulla. Last Friday, his troops launched flares and scanned the area after suspicious movement was detected. The suspects were identified using “various means, both overt and covert,” the IDF said at the time. The Israel Police is investigating the drug-smuggling incident. The possibility that the smuggling attempt was carried out with help of Hezbollah is also being looked into, the IDF said. The situation in Lebanon is “complicated,” and there is no proof that Hezbollah was behind the smuggling, Haimlich said, adding that “the IDF’s intelligence is very precise and knows who is behind the attempt.” “Hezbollah is not dumb, and because of that, we are always looking at smuggling attempts as possible terrorist attacks,” he said. “Our fight against Hezbollah is our central concern.” In addition to stopping the smuggling of drugs and weapons, as well as thwarting infiltration attempts, “we are ready to fight and [are prepared] for terrorist attacks,” Haimlich said. “That’s what we do as an army.”
Both weapons and drugs have been smuggled into Israel from its northern border, with some of the weapons having been used in terrorist attacks.
Hezbollah receives significant financial aid from supporters who live abroad and through charities. It also relies on a wide variety of criminal activities, such as money laundering through shell companies and fraud, as well as trading in drugs, arms and “blood diamonds.” The group also depends on a network of criminal and narcotic rings across the globe, including in Lebanon, Africa, Asia and North and South America. At least five significant drug- and weapon-smuggling attempts have been thwarted since the beginning of the year by the IDF and the Israel Police. In February, 12 kilograms of drugs were seized near Dovev, and one suspect was arrested in Israel. In early April, two pistols and two kilograms of drugs were seized near Metulla, and several suspects were arrested. In early June, 15 pistols, dozens of cartridges and 36 kilograms of drugs were seized, and a number of suspects were arrested. In mid-June, 12 pistols were seized near Metulla, and one suspect arrested.Senior Hezbollah official Hajj Khalil Harb is operating a drug- and weapons-smuggling operation over the Israel-Lebanon border, the IDF said. He might be behind the smuggling attempt that was thwarted last Friday and one in the beginning of June in which 15 pistols and dozens of kilograms of cannabis worth NIS 2,000,000 were seized, it said.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 15-16/2021
Iranian dissidents to visit Israel next week
Jerusalem Post/July 15/2021
Iranian expats support Israelis in light of the latest attacks by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which are sponsored by Iran. A delegation of Iranian dissidents and expatriates plans to pay a solidarity visit to Israel next week with officials from the Trump administration. The mission is being organized by the Institute for Voices of Liberty (iVOL), a policy institute dedicated to encouraging freedom, human rights and democracy in Iran, it said in a press release. It includes eight Iranian expats and four former officials and is meant to demonstrate support for Israel in light of the latest attacks by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which are sponsored by Iran.
The delegation will meet with Foreign Ministry representatives, visit an IDF unit and hear from security experts. It plans to visit towns in the Gaza Strip periphery, as well as the northern border to learn about the threat from Hezbollah. The participants will also tour historic sites in Jerusalem. The Abraham Accords show there is potential for greater peace, security and prosperity in the Middle East and that Iranians also deserve to take part, despite their hostile and antisemitic regime, former US deputy national security advisor Victoria Coates was quoted as saying. Coates cited an op-ed she and Len Khodorkovsky, a former senior adviser to the US special representative for Iran, wrote in The Jerusalem Post this year, calling for a “Cyrus Accords” between Israel and Iranians, named after Cyrus the Great, the Persian king who allowed Jews to build the Second Temple in Jerusalem.
“This iVOL mission is an important step towards realizing that vision; once the Islamic Republic joins so many other ruthless, authoritarian regimes on the ash heap of history,” Coates said.
Khodorkovsky is expected to join the delegation, as well as Ellie Cohanim, former deputy special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism, who was born in Iran, and US Department of Defense strategist Adam Lovinger.
Most of the members of the group will be traveling to Israel for the first time. They will meet with Israelis of diverse backgrounds and religions during their visits to Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and other locations near the Gazan and Syrian borders targeted by the regime in Iran and its terrorist proxies. The organization “exists to reflect the voices of freedom-seeking Iranians,” said iVOL board member Bijan R. Kian, an Iranian-American who was convicted of illegal lobbying connected with the investigation of former national security advisor Michael Flynn. “We organized this historic mission to Israel to show the solidarity of free Iranians with the people of Israel and to separate freedom-seeking people of Iran from the criminal, inept and corrupt regime that has forced itself upon them,” he said.

IDF requests billions in budget increase to boost Iran attack capabilities
Jerusalem Post/July 15/2021
Israel considers Iran’s nuclear program as the number one concern. It would take one year to make a nuclear bomb - intel reports. The Israeli military has reportedly asked for a major budget increase so that it can strengthen its attack capabilities should it need to attack Iran’s nuclear program. The request, worth billions of shekels, was made during preliminary discussions on the budget, KAN public broadcaster reported on Wednesday.
Israel considers Iran’s nuclear program as the number one concern and, according to recent intelligence assessments, if the Islamic Republic does decide to renege on the agreement, it would take one year for it to produce enough fissile material to make a nuclear bomb. According to Israeli assessments, Iran is less than a year away from a nuclear weapon and has accelerated its nuclear enrichment activity.  On Wednesday, Iran’s outgoing President Hassan Rouhani said that Tehran could enrich uranium up to 90% purity if its nuclear reactors needed it. Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons but it is believed that the terrorist-supporting country is continuing to develop the capabilities to produce a nuclear weapons arsenal as well as ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The KAN report said that in recent talks between senior American and Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Defense Minister Benny Gantz, Israel’s freedom of action was emphasized as being non-negotiable. In an article published in Israel Hayom on Thursday, Gantz said that Israel must be able to protect itself and thwart enemy actions. “When Israel has a credible military option, this is to the benefit of the other world powers, and it is essential in order to present an iron wall against Iran and persuade them to come to terms,” he wrote. "There isn’t going to be a good, wide-ranging nuclear deal without a credible military option behind it."Gantz also criticized former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying that his conduct during the last few years has allowed Iran to make significant progress toward acquiring nuclear weapons. Netanyahu has “many merits to his credit with regards to Israel’s security, but the outspoken way with which he dealt with the United States damaged our ability to prevent the Iranians from advancing their nuclear capabilities,” he wrote. “In the last few years of his tenure, Iran moved substantially forward with its nuclear program, and Netanyahu’s stance endangered our position in the eyes of the Americans as a country that enjoys bipartisan support.”
In a speech Wednesday night during the graduation ceremony for Israel’s National Defense College, Gantz called for Israel to step up preparations should Iran obtain a nuclear weapon. “Against the greatest threat – Iran arming itself with a nuclear weapon – we have no choice but to expand our force build-up, to continue to rely on our human capital and to adapt our capabilities and our plans,” he said. In his speech, the defense minister called on the government to allow the country’s security services to “maintain military superiority, which allows our existence and our efforts to obtain peace,” which is not “a privilege but a real existential need.” “All of these threats demand that we speed up and increase our preparedness to carry out our mission with an iron wall of action – and not to get by with just words,” Gantz said.

Iran warns it can enrich uranium to nuclear weapons grade
Arab News/July 15/2021
JEDDAH: Iran claimed on Wednesday that it had the ability to enrich fissile uranium to 90 percent purity — the level required to build the core of a nuclear weapon. “Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization can enrich uranium by 20 percent and 60 percent and if … our reactors need it, it can enrich uranium to 90 percent purity,” President Hassan Rouhani told a Cabinet meeting in Tehran. The outgoing president, who leaves office next month, also blamed hard-liners in the ruling theocracy for the failure so far to negotiate a revived Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions. “They took away the opportunity to reach an agreement from this government. We deeply regret missing this opportunity,” Rouhani said. “We are very sorry that nearly six months of opportunity has been lost.”The JCPOA collapsed in 2018 when the US pulled out and President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy. Tehran responded by incrementally breaching its obligations under the terms of the deal, increasing its stocks of enriched uranium and levels of enrichment, which the agreement caps at 3.67 percent. Indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington aimed at reviving the deal have been taking place in Vienna, where the sixth round of talks adjourned on June 20. No resumption has yet been scheduled, and Iranian and Western officials have said significant gaps remain to be resolved. Iranian officials said Ebrahim Raisi, the incoming president, planned to adopt “a harder line” in the talks, and the next round of talks might not take place until late September or early October. Members of Iran’s nuclear team could be replaced with hard-line officials, but top nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi would stay “at least for a while,” they said. One official said Raisi planned to show “less flexibility and demand more concessions” from Washington, such as keeping a chain of advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges in place and insisting on the removal of US sanctions related to human rights and terrorism.

Masih Alinejad: How Iran threatened and attempted to kidnap a US journalist
Reuters, Washington/15 July ,2021
The image on the alleged Iranian intelligence operative’s device was chilling: A graphic showing photos of two Iranian dissidents captured overseas. Next to them was a picture of a journalist US prosecutors say he intended to kidnap and the caption “are you coming or should we come for you?”The intended target was Iranian American journalist Masih Alinejad, a contributor to US government-financed Voice of America’s Farsi edition, who had angered Iran through her pointed criticism of the country’s head-covering laws, according to US prosecutors. “I had goose bumps and was crying, but this is my fight,” Alinejad said in an interview this week, soon after learning that US federal prosecutors had charged four Iranians with plotting to kidnap her.
“I didn’t do anything but give a voice to people.” Alinejad was not identified in court papers unsealed on Tuesday charging the four Iranians, but confirmed to Reuters that she was the target of the plot. She showed video of a near-constant police presence outside her New York home intended to protect her. The image, which prosecutors said was seized in an electronic device and captioned in Farsi, was revealed in unsealed court papers. US authorities say the plot is part of an escalating effort by the Islamic Republic to harass, surveil and kidnap Iranian activists overseas.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh dismissed the kidnapping allegations as “baseless and ridiculous.” But Tehran has said over the past two years it would amp up its overseas intelligence operations in response to US sanctions and military actions, like the killing of General Qassem Soleimani. The four Iranians charged in the case hired private detectives in Manhattan to surveil Alinejad and her family. The Iranian intelligence operatives were trying to figure out how to spirit Alinejad out of New York by boat to South America, US authorities said.
Intensifying operations
The same network of Iranian intelligence operatives targeted at least four other activists in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates, hiring local private investigators to photograph entrances to homes, follow family members and monitor their contacts, prosecutors said. Before the plot to kidnap Alinejad started in 2020, authorities say, the operatives had made several failed attempts to lure her to Turkey by coercing family members to invite her for a reunion. Alinejad’s brother warned her of the scheme, she said. “My brother exposed it and he was arrested” in Iran, she said. Other family members living in Iran were forced to publicly denounce her, she said. ‘Something they do not tolerate’ Roya Boroumand, executive director of the Washington, DC-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran, said the Islamic Republic has intensified operations in the past few years against opponents in Western countries. Social media has allowed these overseas activists to play a larger role in organizing resistance to Islamic Republic policies, posing a threat to the government, Boroumand said. For example, Alinejad has used the reach of her 5 million followers on Instagram to promote videos of women violating Iran’s head covering law. “It has led to many people challenging government agents in the street and this is something they do not tolerate,” Boroumand said. “There is a link between what these people do on social media and the mobilizations,” Boroumand said. “And that’s the threat.”

Facebook says Iran-based spies targeted defense workers in US, Europe
AFP/15 July ,2021
Facebook on Thursday said it disrupted an Iran-based espionage operation targeting defense and aerospace workers in Europe and the United States. Fake accounts posing as company job recruiters or employees were used to dupe targets, according to head of cyber espionage investigations Mike Dvilyanski.
“This effort was highly targeted,” Dvilyanski said in a telephone briefing. “It is hard for us to know how successful this campaign was, but it had all the hallmarks of a well-resourced operation.” Some of the malicious code used in the cyber spying campaign was developed by Mahak Rayan Afraz tech company in Tehran with ties to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to Dvilyanski. Facebook took down 200 accounts it said where used to dupe defense or aerospace industry workers into connecting outside the social network, say by email or at bogus job websites. The group referred to as “Tortoiseshell” had focused its activities in the Middle East until last year, when it took aim primarily at the United States, according to Dvilyanski. “This group used various malicious tactics to identify its targets and infect their devices with malware to enable espionage,” said Facebook director of threat disruption David Agranovich. “Our platform was one of the elements of the much broader cross-platform cyber espionage operation, and its activity on Facebook manifested primarily in social engineering and driving people off-platform.” Malware slipped onto devices of victims was designed to glean information including log-in credentials to email or social media, according to Dvilyanski. Facebook said it appeared fewer than 200 users may have fallen for the ruse, and that those people have been notified of the deception. Facebook also blocked some of the booby-trapped website links from being shared at the social network, according to executives. The US tech giant added that it shared findings with internet industry peers and law enforcement. “We were only part of this campaign, and we are taking action on our platform,” Dvilyanski said.

Analysis: Despite talk of options on Iran, US has few good ones
Reuters/15 July ,2021:
US President Joe Biden has few real diplomatic alternatives to trying to persuade Iran to resume compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal and all appear harder to achieve, current and former US and European officials said. Indirect US-Iranian talks on reviving the deal have been on hold since the last round ended on June 20 and Iran has made clear it is not ready to resume before Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi takes over in August.The hiatus, which US and European officials attribute to the hardline cleric’s election, has raised questions about next steps if the talks hit a dead end. The US State Department has acknowledged it may need to rethink its stance.
The problem is that experts agree there are few options to the 2015 deal under which Tehran limited its nuclear program to make it harder to acquire nuclear weapons - an ambition it denies - in return for relief from economic sanctions.
“I think all the alternatives are worse for us. I think they are worse for Iran. And frankly, I think, at the end of the day, Iran will suffer – I don’t know if they suffer more than we will - but they will be in a bad situation,” a senior US official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. “Which is why we have argued now for some time that the best option is a strict return to compliance with the (deal). That’s our analysis,” the US official said. Washington would do all it could to revive the deal, the official said, but added, “we have to be prepared to live with the alternatives.”When former US President Donald Trump abandoned the agreement, named the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), he reimposed US sanctions that largely deprived Tehran of its ability to export oil and have caused economic misery in Iran.
‘More for more, less for less’
One alternative to the JCPOA, which former US and European officials called “more for more,” would entail Iran accepting greater limits on its nuclear and perhaps other activities in return for greater sanctions relief. It will likely be harder to negotiate such a broader deal than to restore the 2015 accord, whose parameters are at least defined, even if they may need tweaking to reflect Iran’s expanded nuclear work since Trump violated the agreement. A version of “more-for-more” would limit the negotiation to the tradeoffs between restricting Iran’s nuclear program and easing economic sanctions.
A wider and thornier version would entail Iran also curbing its ballistic missile program and support for regional proxies, red lines Iranian officials say they will not cross. A second alternative, sometimes called less-for-less, might require fewer limitations to Iran’s nuclear program in return for less sanctions relief.
This might be the worst of both worlds for Biden, however, since he could be criticized for giving Iran economic benefits and getting fewer nuclear limits in return.
“An agreement weaker than the 2015 one would be politically unsustainable in the US,” said Gerard Araud, France’s former ambassador to the United States. “I don’t see an alternative to the JCPOA other than ‘maximum pressure’ but this regime has shown its resilience and I don’t see it caving to it,” he added. He was referring to Trump’s policy of increasing economic pressure in the hopes Iran would capitulate. Tehran, for its part, has raised pressure on Washington by starting the process to make enriched uranium metal and by talk of enriching uranium to 90 percent, or weapons grade - both steps that could help it make nuclear arms. A senior diplomat involved in the talks said it was vital to convince Raisi’s team that hopes they can negotiate fewer nuclear limits for more sanctions relief, the equivalent of “less for more,” were misplaced. “They may think time is on their side,” he said on condition of anonymity. If that’s the case, he said, “they are mistaken.” Former US government Middle East specialist Dennis Ross said Tehran was likely to keep pushing Washington by expanding its nuclear program. “When they decide the administration has reached the limits of what it (will) concede, I suspect you will see a deal reconstituting the JCPOA,” Ross said.

WHO Experts Warn of 'Strong Likelihood' of More Dangerous Covid Variants
Agence France Presse/July 15/2021
The World Health Organization's emergency committee warned Thursday that new concerning variants of Covid-19 were expected to spread around the world, making it even harder to halt the pandemic. "The pandemic is nowhere near finished," the committee said in a statement, highlighting "the strong likelihood for the emergence and global spread of new and possibly more dangerous variants of concern that may be even more challenging to control."

Regime Shelling Kills 9 Civilians In NW Syria
Agence France Presse/July 15/2021
Shelling by Syrian regime forces Thursday killed nine civilians, including three children, in the Idlib region in the country's northwest, a war monitor reported. The deaths came amid an uptick in violations of a ceasefire deal that was brokered by Turkey and Russia in March 2020 and had since largely held.
Since June, government forces have stepped up shelling of rebel groups dominating the Idlib region who in turn have responded by targeting regime positions in surrounding areas. On Thursday, regime shelling on the outskirts of the north Idlib town of Fuaa killed six civilians, including a child, said the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Most of the victims were quarry workers, the war monitor said. In a separate attack on the Idlib village of Iblin, more than 35 kilometers (22 miles) south from Fuaa, regime shelling killed three other people, including two children, it said.
Earlier this month, regime shelling on southern Idlib killed nine people, including five members of the same family, in one of the deadliest violations of the truce. The Idlib region, which borders Turkey to the north and is home to more than three million people, is the last part of Syria controlled by rebel or jihadist groups.The Syrian regime, backed by Russia and Iran, has vowed to retake the area and the enclave has shrunk under pressure from successive deadly land and air offensives. Despite sporadic skirmishes along the ceasefire lines, the truce has largely held, averting a major assault that aid groups warned could cause suffering on a scale yet unseen in Syria's decade-old war.The war has killed nearly 500,000 people since it started in 2011 with the brutal repression of peaceful demonstrations.

Pakistan Confirms Taliban Have Afghan Border Town
Agence France Presse/July 15/2021
Pakistan's foreign ministry confirmed Thursday that the Taliban were in control of a key town on the Afghan side of its border. "They have taken control of Spin Boldak border crossing," said ministry spokesman Zahid Hafeez Chaudhri, a day after the Taliban seized the town as part of a sweeping offensive across the country.

Taliban Offer 3-Month Truce in Return for Prisoner Release
Agence France Presse/July 15/2021
An Afghan government negotiator on Thursday said the Taliban had offered a three-month ceasefire in exchange for the release of 7,000 insurgent prisoners, as the militant group continues a sweeping offensive across the country. "It is a big demand," Nader Nadery said, adding that the insurgents have also demanded the removal of the Taliban's leaders from a United Nations blacklist. The announcement came as Pakistan guards used tear gas Thursday to disperse hundreds of people who tried to breach a border crossing into Afghanistan, officials said. The frontier was closed a day earlier by Pakistan after the Taliban seized the Afghan side in Spin Boldak district, continuing sweeping gains made by the militants since foreign forces stepped up their withdrawal from Afghanistan. "An unruly mob of about 400 people tried to cross the gate forcefully. They threw stones, which forced us to use tear gas," said a security official at the southwest Chaman border on the Pakistan side, who asked not to be named. He said around 1,500 people had gathered at the border, waiting to cross since Wednesday. "We had to baton charge because people were getting unruly," said a second border official, who also did not want to be named. Jumadad Khan, a senior government official in Chaman, said the situation was now "under control". An Afghan Taliban source told AFP that hundreds of people had also gathered on the Afghan side, hoping to get into Pakistan. "We are talking to Pakistani authorities. A formal meeting to open the border is scheduled for today, and hopefully, it will open in a day or two," he said.  The crossing provides direct access to Pakistan's Balochistan province -- where the Taliban's top leadership has been based for decades -- along with an unknown number of reserve fighters who regularly enter Afghanistan to help bolster their ranks. A major highway leading from the border connects to Pakistan's commercial capital Karachi and its sprawling port on the Arabian Sea, which is considered a linchpin for Afghanistan's billion-dollar heroin trade that has provided a crucial source of revenue for the Taliban's war chest over the years. Spin Boldak was the latest in a string of border crossings and dry ports seized by the insurgents in recent weeks as they look to choke off revenues much-needed by Kabul while also filling their own coffers. Afghanistan's interior ministry has denied the Taliban have taken the area even as social media was flooded with pictures of insurgent fighters relaxing in the frontier town. Hours after the crossing fell, an AFP reporter on the Pakistani side saw around 150 Taliban fighters riding on motorcycles, waving insurgent flags and demanding to be allowed to cross into Afghanistan.

At Least 20 Dead in Germany as Storms Lash Europe
Agence France Presse/July 15/2021
Heavy rains and floods lashing western Europe have killed at least 20 people in Germany and left around 50 missing, as rising waters led several houses to collapse on Thursday. Unusually heavy rains also ravaged neighboring Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Belgium, where another four people were reported dead. Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) states were the worst hit in Germany by the deluge, which has caused rivers to burst their banks and threatens to bring down more homes. Desperate residents sought refuge on the roofs of their homes as helicopters circled above to rescue them from the rising waters. Pensioner Annemarie Mueller, 65, looking out at her flooded garden and garage from her balcony, said her town of Mayen had been completely unprepared for the destruction. "Nobody was expecting this, where did all this rain come from? It's crazy," she told AFP. "It made such a loud noise and given how fast it came down we thought it would break the door down." Chancellor Angela Merkel said she was "shocked" by the devastation and thanked the "tireless volunteers and emergency service workers" at the scene. NRW leader Armin Laschet, who is running to succeed Merkel in September elections, cancelled a party meeting in Bavaria to survey the damage in his state, Germany's most populous. "We will stand by the towns and people who've been affected," Laschet, clad in rubber boots, told reporters in the town of Hagen.
'Go to higher floors'
Four of the dead were in the municipality of Schuld south of Bonn where six houses were swept away by floods, a police spokesman in the city of Koblenz told AFP.
Several other bodies were recovered from flooded cellars while another eight people were reported dead in the district of Euskirchen. The environment ministry in Rhineland-Palatinate warned it expected floodwaters on the Rhine and Moselle rivers to rise with more rainfall. In NRW alone, 135,000 households were without power. Emergency workers struggled to evacuate people in endangered buildings and two firemen were killed in the line of duty in the towns of Altena and Werdohl. Police set up a crisis hotline for people to report missing loved ones and residents were asked to send in videos and photos that could help them in the search. Regional official Juergen Pfoehler urged people to stay home "and, if possible, go to higher floors" of their houses. The German military deployed some 400 soldiers across the two affected states to assist in rescue efforts. In the city of Leverkusen, a power outage triggered by the storms led to the evacuation of a hospital with 468 patients. City authorities reported that after intensive care patients were moved to other facilities overnight, the other wards would have to be cleared in the course of the day.
Rarely experienced'
Neighboring Belgium has also seen several days of heavy rain that has caused rivers in the French-speaking region of Wallonia to burst their banks. Four were reported dead. The provinces of Liege and Namur were especially affected, with the resort town of Spa completely flooded. In the town of Chaudfontaine, daily Le Soir reported that nearly 1,800 people had to evacuate. "We have rarely experienced such intense flooding. You have to go back to 1998 to have experienced this," Chaudefontaine mayor Daniel Bacquelaine told RTL radio. The country's Infrabel rail network said it was suspending services in the southern half of the country, given the risks to travel. "It is indeed impossible to ensure the safe movement of trains for passengers or to have access to strategic areas for their staff," Transport Minister Georges Gilkinet told Belga news agency. The southern Dutch province of Limburg, which is bordered by Germany and Belgium, also reported widespread damage with rising waters threatening to cut off the small city of Valkenburg west of Maastricht. Local news footage showed small rivers of water flowing through the scenic city center's streets and at least one old age home had been evacuated. Officials also closed off several roads including the busy A2 highway, while fears remained that water from heavy rains in Germany and Belgium would push up river levels as it reached the Netherlands. Meanwhile the Luxembourg government set up a crisis cell to respond to emergencies triggered by heavy rains overnight as Prime Minister Xavier Bettel reported "several homes" had been flooded and were "no longer inhabitable."

U.S. Warns Egypt over Crackdown on Rights Activists
Agence France Presse/July 15/2021
The United States has warned Egypt not to target rights campaigners after a prominent activist was indicted, saying the issue would be a factor in arms sales to the ally. Hossam Bahgat, executive director of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, said this week that prosecutors indicted him and that his trial would start on September 7 on charges related to his use of social media, including a tweet that criticized election authorities. State Department spokesman Ned Price said that the United States was "concerned" by the indictment and the continued detention of other member of civil society, academics and journalists. "We've communicated to the Egyptian government our strong belief that individuals such as Hossam Bahgat should not be targeted for expressing their views peacefully," Price told reporters. Asked if the issue would affect a major arms package for Egypt that is under consideration, Price declined to discuss funding but said: "Human rights across the board is something we look at very closely in making those decisions." President Joe Biden as a candidate vowed that there would be no more "blank checks" for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who formed a close alliance with Biden's predecessor Donald Trump. But Secretary of State Antony Blinken in May visited and praised Sisi for helping bring a truce that halted bloodshed between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas. Sisi, a former army chief, took power in 2013 and has launched a sweeping crackdown on dissent, with rights groups estimating that Egypt holds about 60,000 political prisoners.

Israel troops arrest dozens of Palestinian university students
AFP/July 16, 2021
RAMALLAH: The Israeli army said on Thursday it had arrested dozens of Palestinian students in the occupied West Bank it accused of being “terror operatives” of Hamas.
Palestinian sources said that dozens of students from Birzeit University were arrested as they were returning by bus from the village of Turmus Ayya where earlier this month Israeli troops demolished the family home of a Palestinian American awaiting trial on charges of shooting a Jewish student in the West Bank earlier this year.An Israeli army statement said: “Some of the apprehended terror operatives were directly involved in terror activities, including money transfers, incitement and the organization of Hamas activities” in the West Bank. A statement late on Wednesday announcing the arrests said “dozens of terror operatives” belonging to “a student cell” at Birzeit University had been detained in a joint operation involving the army, police and the Shin Bet domestic security agency. An army spokesperson said on Thursday that the Shin Bet had taken over the investigation. According to the Palestinian Prisoners Club, the number of students arrested on Wednesday was around 45, but 12 have since been released and the 33 still in detention were all male. It charged that Israel had carried out “systematic arrests” of Palestinian students that had “obstructed the education of hundreds of students.” Birzeit University in a statement voiced concern over the fate of its students, and condemned the arrests as a breach of international law. “The university calls on the international community to intervene immediately to secure their release,” it said.

Yemeni government scores fresh military gains in Marib province
Arab News/July 15/2021
ALEXANDRIA: Yemeni troops and local tribesmen seized control of the headquarters of a key district in the central province of Marib, scoring major gains in the area for the first time in years, an army spokesperson said Thursday.
Maj. Gen. Abdu Abdullah Majili said that government troops controlled the center of Rahabah district after heavy clashes with Houthis, who retreated to neighboring areas. The army had killed, wounded and captured dozens of rebel fighters during the latest clashes in Marib, he added. “The battles will continue until we take full control of Rahabah district.”Local tribesmen first announced the liberation of Rahabah on Wednesday afternoon, shortly after dozens of fighters stormed a building that hosted government offices. Combatants posed for pictures outside the building as other armed men retrieved weapons and vehicles abandoned by the Houthis, witnesses said. Backed by massive air support from the Arab coalition, the Yemeni army and tribesmen have applied defensive and attrition tactics in Marib since earlier this year to push back a major Houthi offensive on the oil-rich city.
Thousands have been killed in battle, with the rebels failing to make major advances toward Marib. Local army officials and experts said the liberation of Rahabah would put troops closer to Sanaa province and enable them to send military reinforcements to neighboring Al-Bayda. Pushing the Houthis from Rahabah, which sits along a key road that links Sanaa with Marib, would help the army cut the militia’s supply lines to fighters in Marib’s Serwah district. Local media on Thursday reported that the Houthis had amassed troops nearby, preparing for a counterattack to recapture Rahabah and other liberated areas in Jabal Murad district. Majili said that government troops pushed back many assaults by the Houthis in Al-Mashjah and Al-Kasara, west of Marib, as the rebels pressed to break the army’s defenses. He hailed the coalition’s warplanes for destroying dozens of Houthi fighters, military vehicles, and weapons. Experts said the army should now focus on securing liberated areas in Marib from predicted counterattacks by the Houthis and defuse landmines instead of pushing into new areas. Troops suffered major defeats in Al-Bayda after the Houthis recaptured Al-Zaher district through a brief counterattack.

France threatens sanctions for Libyan groups blocking political process
Arab News/July 15/2021
NEW YORK: Those jeopardizing the Libyan political process could face sanctions, the French foreign minister has warned. Jean-Yves Le Drian presided over a UN Security Council meeting on Thursday on Libya’s roadmap out of years of conflict.
A ceasefire agreement reached last year led to a transitional government and elections scheduled for December. But progress has faltered with the different sides failing to agree on a legal framework for the polls. Le Drian said real threats were hanging over the political process and they must be dispelled, starting with respecting the electoral calendar. He said those who jeopardized the political process could be subject to sanctions. The minister also called for all foreign fighters to leave the country as was agreed in the ceasefire deal. The UN special envoy to Libya Jan Kubis said many Libyan officials appeared unready to commit to the elections timetable and that some parties were using various tactics to obstruct holding the vote. Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh told the meeting that Libya’s security and economic situations have become more stable. But he warned that the presence of mercenaries and foreign fighters on Libyan soil is one of the most important obstacles to stability. He called on the international community to support Libya in unifying the military and security institutions.

Iraq, US discuss potential withdrawal of foreign combat forces
Arab News/July 15/2021
DUBAI: Iraq and the US discussed Thursday “the mechanisms for the withdrawal of combat forces” during a meeting of senior officials. Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi met with US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk to discuss these mechanism and the “transition to a new phase of strategic cooperation that develops the relationship between the two countries and enhances Iraq’s security and sovereignty,” a statement released by Kadhimi’s office said. During the meeting, both men also touched on coordination and joint cooperation in various fields and preparations for holding the next round of strategic dialogue between Iraq and the United States of America. Kadhimi then discussed with the American delegation the expansion of cooperation in the economic, cultural and commercial fields as well ways to better confront the coronavirus pandemic. Iraq is set to hold early parliamentary elections in October.

Iraqi cleric Sadr says he won’t take part in October election
Reuters/July 15/2021
BAGHDAD: Populist Shiite cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr said on Thursday he will not take part in Iraq’s next election in October, and he will not support any parties. Sadr’s Sairoon electoral won the 2018 parliamentary election, gaining 54 seats. He has millions of followers in Iraq, controls a large paramilitary group, and is a long-time adversary of the United States who also opposes Iranian influence in Iraq. “To preserve what has left of the country and to save the country..I inform you that I will not take part in this election,” Sadr said in a televised speech.

Bashagha looks for new role in Libya, does not hide political ambitions
The Arab Weekly/July 15/2021
TRIPOLI - The meeting held this week between President of the Libyan Presidency Council, Muhammad al-Menfi and former minister of interior in the old Government of National Accord, Fathi Bashagha, reflected the latter’s efforts to find a new role for himself in Libya. Bashagha, who enjoys wide influence in the west of the country, especially in the city of Misrata from which he hails, has not stopped his activities since he left office. His intensifying moves are, according to observers, aimed at positioning himself in a new role and also pursuing a reputation-building campaign ahead of the upcoming elections scheduled for December 24, 2021. According to media reports, the former interior minister even signed a contract recently with a US public relations firm, prompting critics to tell him, “the voters are in Libya and not the United States.”As part of his recent moves, Bashagha met Menfi on Tuesday evening, at a time when differences have come into the open between the president of the presidency council and the Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity (GNU), Abdulhamid Dbeibah, over the defence portfolio. Analysts even speculated the meeting could have been linked to the dispute surrounding the ministry.
They did not rule out that Bashagha was angling for the portfolio, especially since he wields strong influence in the western region and has previously had his own confrontations with armed militias there.
“Today, I met with the President of the Presidency Council, Dr Muhammad al-Menfi and we discussed the issue of the presidential and parliamentary elections, scheduled in the next phase, overcoming the difficulties that we face and the need to stick to the elections on their scheduled December 24, 2021, date based on the roadmap, ” Bashagha said. And Bashagha continued, in a series of tweets, “We reaffirmed our support for the efforts of the presidency council aimed at addressing the divisions within institutions and its important role in establishing a national reconciliation commission that would be a solid and basic base for the reunification of Libyans from all regions and cities.”Since the departure of the Government of National Accord (GNA) headed by Fayez Al-Sarraj in which Bashagha was a key member, the former interior minister has not stopped his contact and outreach efforts.
Through his moves, Bashaga seemed determined to achieve at least two goals: finding a place for himself on the new political map, with the minister of defence job seemingly tempting him and preparing for the presidential elections in which he said earlier that he intends to run. The visits that he made abroad, as well as his meetings with representatives of foreign countries in Libya, reflect Bashagha’s drive to achieve these goals, as he portrays himself as an opponent of the militias, so as to ensure external support in the upcoming elections.
This argument may also get the attention of the new authorities led by the presidency council and the Government of National Unity (GNU), which have so far been unable to resolve the security problem. Overcoming the security concerns could bring Libya closer to successfully organising the general elections on time. Among the issues that represent a real obstacle to the efforts of the Dbeibah’s government and the presidency council is the uphill task of dismantling of the militias. Bashagha has called for the roadmap set by the Geneva talks between the Libyan political actors to be implemented in full.
Recently, he stressed the need to adhere to the road map. He wanted to discuss proposals to break the stalemate in the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) and move forward towards adopting the constitutional basis for presidential and parliamentary elections, so as to enable the people to choose their president according to UN Security Council resolutions.
Bashagha has not hidden his political ambitions, which have prompted him to oppose the extension of the interim government’s tenure against the background of his own intent to run for the presidency of Libya. Bashagha was actually nominated for the presidency of the GNU at the LPDF, as part of a list that also included Parliament Speaker Ageela Saleh for the presidency of the presidency council, along with Osama al-Juwaili, and Abdul Majeed Saif al-Nasr. However, the Ageela-Bashagha list failed against that of Abdulhamid Dbeibah, with Dbeibah as prime minister, and Muhammad el-Menfi, as head of the presidency council.

Kuwaitis welcome unbridled Turkish influence, heap praise on Erdogan
The Arab Weekly/July 15/2021
KUWAIT – Kuwaiti Crown Prince Sheikh Mishaal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah has made himself conspicuous with a statement in which he described Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a “brave man in stances, words and deeds”. His position was considered by Kuwaiti analysts as an indication of major overtures from Kuwait to Turkey and a willingness to welcome Erdogan’s unbridled influence in the country.
“We are talking about the strength of relations between Kuwait and Turkey and we refer to all aspects of political, economic, commercial and security cooperation,” Sheikh Mishaal Al-Ahmad said when receiving Turkish Parliament Speaker Mustafa Şentop.
Kuwaiti analysts considered the crown prince’s statements regarding Erdogan’s character and the evolution of relations with Ankara as a reflection of Turkish influence in Kuwait, especially in the economic field, where Turkish companies control most of the major projects in the country. However, Kuwaiti political analyst Abdullah Khaled al-Ghanim saw more than this in the developments. He said Sheikh Mishaal’s statements can only be understood in the context of the needed balances imposed by international shifts, rather than as an expression of personal admiration for anyone or a desire to open the wide door to Turkish influence in the country.
Ghanim told The Arab Weekly, “With the acceleration of the US withdrawal from the Middle East and the expectation that US President Joe Biden would soon conclude a new nuclear agreement that increases Iran’s influence in the region and with the Turks and Israelis entering the Gulf security equation, it has become necessary for the Gulf states to recalibrate their international approach in order to compensate for any strategic imbalances on the regional stage”. He pointed out that the meeting of the Kuwaiti crown prince with the speaker of the Turkish parliament came within these regional and international contexts.
The speaker of the Turkish parliament was welcomed at the highest levels in Kuwait. After meeting the crown prince, he was received by Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah and he also met National Assembly Speaker Marzouq Al-Ghanim. What the crown prince said surprised experts of Kuwaiti political affairs, considering that Sheikh Mishaal Al-Ahmad was perceived as being opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood’s influence. His praise for Erdogan is likely to give the Kuwaiti Brotherhood sympathisers who are deeply encroached in the state, an exceptional boost. Kuwait, along with Qatar, was enthusiastic about Turkey’s return to the Gulf region after the Al-Ula summit and its attempts to bring about GCC reconciliation. There was also public sympathy for Ankara during its tense relationship with Riyadh due to the repercussions of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder.
Also, when the Saudis were putting in place a nationwide popular boycott of Turkish products, there was a broad solidarity movement led by the Kuwaiti Brotherhood to support Erdogan. The authorities did not move to curtail this movement, despite the fact that Kuwait was then mediating between Doha and Riyadh and needed to win Saudi Arabia’s backing to ensure the success of its effort. During the period when Gulf relations with Turkey deteriorated, after Ankara sided with Qatar against the boycotting quartet, the activities of Kuwaitis in Turkey increased. Turkey became a magnet for Kuwaitis wishing to buy real estate, at a time when the real estate sector in Turkey was experiencing a major crisis due to a lack of foreign currency liquidity thanks to the collapse of the lira, which led to the suspension of many projects that were already under construction.

Shia cleric Sadr to stay clear of Iraq’s October elections, in blow to Kadhimi
The Arab Weekly/July 15/2021
BAGHDAD – Iraq’s populist Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr said Thursday he won’t participate in a parliamentary election slated for October and will withhold his support for any party. The boycott by the enigmatic religious and political figure is a blow to election plans by Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who had called the early vote in response to demands by pro-democracy activists. The impact of Sadr’s announcement was difficult to assess immediately. He has withdrawn from frontline politics before for years at a time, and has typically wielded his power without holding elected office. Even if he does not run, candidates loyal to him could stand in the election, allowing him to retain his influence. Over the past two years, Sadr’s political organisation, the Sadrist Movement, has quietly come to dominate the apparatus of the Iraqi state. Its members have taken senior jobs within the interior, defence and communications ministries.
Pointing a finger
Sadr, whose political manoeuvres have at times puzzled observers, declared he would stay clear of the vote for parliament, where his Saeroon bloc is now the largest with 54 out of 329 seats. “I will not partake in these elections because the nation is more important than this,” Sadr declared in a five-minute address on his private religious TV channel. “I am withdrawing my support from anyone who claims they belong to us in this current and upcoming government.” Sadr also charged in his brief comments that in Iraqi politics “everyone is tainted with corruption and nobody is above being held accountable.” On Wednesday, he had warned the Kadhimi government that he would hold it responsible if it fails to take action over a devastating fire that killed at least 60 people in a Covid isolation unit late Monday. The devastating blaze, which swept through the Covid isolation unit of Al-Hussein Hospital in the southern city of Nasiriyah, was the second such fire in Iraq in three months. The early elections were a key demand by a nationwide protest movement launched in October 2019.
Crucial player
Sadr — a firebrand with millions of followers and in command of paramilitary groups — is a crucial player in Iraqi politics who has often protested against the influence of both the United States and Iran. The youth-led movement, at times backed by Sadr’s supporters, railed against Iraq’s entire political class, which it deemed inept and corrupt. The parliamentary vote is set to be held under a new electoral law that reduces the size of constituencies and eliminates list-based voting in favour of votes for individual candidates. Sadr, the son of a revered religious figure, wears a black turban that signals descent from the family of the Prophet Mohammed. Militias loyal to him fought the US-led occupation and he retains a devoted following among the country’s majority Shia population, including in the poor Baghdad district of Sadr City. Sadr’s supporters have been expected to make major gains under the new voting system. Last year, Sadr said he wanted the next prime minister to be a member of his movement for the first time.

Loopholes in Riyadh Agreement exacerbate tensions in Yemen
The Arab Weekly/July 15/2021
ADEN – A recent statement by the Yemeni official government’s team tasked with applying the Riyadh Agreement renewed tensions with the Southern Transitional Council (STC), amid indications the dispute could turn into an internationalised crisis in the absence of precise mechanisms that would compel the two sides to implement the agreement’s provisions. “The STC is not committed to applying what was agreed to and is responsible for delaying the government’s return to the interim capital to resume its duties,” the team said in a statement carried by Riyadh-based Yemen’s news agency Saba. “The team made responsible proposals paving the way for the government to return and safely, independently do its duties,” the team added. “But this has yet to be achieved, as the STC reneged agreement on halt of escalation and securing the government’s offices.”
Yemeni political sources told The Arab Weekly the dispute could be heading towards internationalisation. They noted that some permanent members of the UN Security Council have been examining the implementation of the agreement and threatening to impose sanctions on Yemen parties that seek to reignite the conflict. Some Yemeni political players have reportedly been attempting to obstruct the Riyadh Agreement, which was signed in 2019 to end a political and military conflict between the Yemeni government and the STC.
UN Security Council
In a letter sent this week to the Security Council, the STC said it was ready for the internationalisation of the dispute and the ensuing political repercussions. Former UN envoy Martin Griffiths and US Special Envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking have recently boosted efforts to end the stalemate, inviting the signatories to the Riyadh Agreement to settle their differences and start putting the deal into effect. Lenderking called on Tuesday for “ending the escalation in Marib and implementing the Riyadh Agreement to ensure the return of the government to Aden and improve the lives of Yemenis,” in a clear indication that the dispute between the STC and the government of President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi has been as detrimental as the conflict in Marib, where the Iran-backed Houthis have been attempting to gain key territory. Observers say that the search for a solution outside the Riyadh Agreement proves that the problem lies within the agreement itself. The government and the STC, the observers note, have been dealing with the Riyadh Agreement as if it would never be implemented, with each party interpreting the provisions so as to serve its own vision and interests.
The statement of the Yemeni government’s team stressed on Tuesday its commitment “to the Saudi-sponsored understandings agreed with the STC team providing for cessation of all forms of military, security, political and media escalation and to requirements for the government to return to Aden.”
The past few days were marked by rising political tensions after the governor of Aden Ahmed Hamed Lamlas, who is with the STC, issued a package of decisions that include appointing officials in a number of service and economy sectors in the interim capital, Aden. The governor’s move came in response to what the STC has consistently described as a “policy of collective punishment” adopted by some government officials against residents of southern areas. This “policy of collective punishment”, the STC says, aims at exerting pressure on it in the media and among people, holding it responsible for the economic and financial collapse that has exacerbated the suffering of Yemenis.
Media websites close to the Yemeni government leaked memos issued by Yemeni Prime Minister Maeen Abdul-Malik to the governor of Aden calling on him to rescind his most recent decisions that were described as “unconstitutional.” This comes at a time when the STC is, in turn, accusing the government of ignoring the Riyadh Agreement and making civilian and military appointments in violation of the agreement’s provisions. Official spokesman for the STC Ali al-Kathiri said that Tuesday’s statement did not represent the Yemeni power sharing government, in which the STC is represented, but that it was issued by a “party in the legitimacy camp.” “The Southern Transitional Council is part of the government, so we do not blame the government for this statement. Our response to this statement attributed to the government was included in the letter of Muhammad al-Ghaithi, head of the General Department of Foreign Affairs of the Southern Transitional Council, which he addressed to the President of the Security Council and the ambassadors of the sponsoring countries,” Kathiri added in a statement to The Arab Weekly. Ghaithi’s letter was sent to Nicolas de Riviere, Permanent Representative of France to the United Nations and current president of the Security Council, representatives of the member states of the council and ambassadors of the countries sponsoring the political process in Yemen. It was written in response to US, French and British statements warning of escalation in southern Yemen through attempts to stir up political tensions against the backdrop of a stalemate in the implementation of the Riyadh Agreement. The letter defended the STC’s position regarding the implementation of the agreement since its signing in November 2019. The letter also insisted the STC has taken “serious steps to fulfill the obligations contained in the agreement,” and considered that it has “maintained a constructive and positive approach towards implementing the agreement’s acceleration mechanism … including facilitating and supporting the return of the power sharing government.”
The Deputy Head of the Media Department in the Southern Transitional Council Mansour Saleh denied the existence of any escalation on the part of the STC, noting that “the reality confirms that there is no political desire for the return of the government, but rather there is a attempt to disrupt the process, reject obligations and harm citizens for the benefit of a political agenda.”
International recognition
In a statement to The Arab Weekly, Saleh considered that the decisions of the governor of Aden fall within his powers and that they come “to save state institutions that have been subjected to systematic destruction for six years. These decisions are aimed at saving citizens and providing services to Yemenis.”
He wondered, “Why does the government remember its competencies and powers when it comes to Aden and providing services to the city’s population, while it closes its eyes to the similar decisions that target similar facilities, and institutions in Shabwa, Marib and Taiz, where the Muslim Brotherhood is supported by state institutions, allowing for the appointment of underqualified people?”Political researcher and Director of the Media Observatory in the Yemeni Ministry of Information Ramah al-Jabri held the STC responsible for the ongoing tensions, saying that “Great risks put the future of the STC at stake, as the Council continues to defy regional players and the international community, in addition to an intransigence and a rejection of Saudi calls that demand the the Riyadh Agreement is put into practice. Jabri point out to The Arab Weekly, Jabri “the statement of the chargé d’affaires of the US ambassador to Yemen Catherine Westley, who said that the STC’s actions expose it to the international response.” Jabri also referred to the comments by the ambassadors of France and Britain, who demanded an end to escalation and called for the implementation of the Riyadh Agreement.
“The Southern Transitional Council is looking for international recognition, while its actions are currently infuriating the international community. The STC is, in fact, presenting itself as an umbrella of armed groups and a political card that can be used for manoeuvring,” Jabri said.
He added, “The political reality at hand confirms that the Transitional Council has no choice but to respect its commitments to the terms of the Riyadh Agreement. If the STC fails to do so, it will face international response, including sanctions.”

Populism in Egypt’s parliament reveals decline in political awareness
The Arab Weekly/July 15/2021
CAIRO – Egyptians have recently been complaining about the weak level of awareness among parliamentarians, especially when it comes to dealing with Egypt’s national and international files. According to these Egyptians, the MPs have been endorsing some highly controversial positions in a populist approach to some social issues. A session held by Parliament last Sunday witnessed a tumultuous debate that accompanied a discussion of a draft law on sexual harassment. One of the MPs engaged in blaming women and the way they dress for the high rates of harassment in the country, provoking an outcry among other MPs who condemned the statements of their colleague. The situation escalated after statements by MP Muhammad Abdul Hamid Hashem, in which he called on women to observe their behaviour while walking in public, and blamed them for the increase in harassment rates, saying, “If a man is a harasser, then the woman is also responsible for the harassment.”Hashem’s comments provoked an angry reaction among female MPS and the Speaker of Parliament Hanafi Jabali demanded the removal of the MP’s statements from the session’s proceedings, in a move that was met by applause.
Observers say that Egypt’s parliament is suffering from a decline in political culture and the MPs’ limited knowledge of key issues and challenges. The political situation in Egypt, the observers said, created some sort of stagnation that led to a failure to produce a conscious elite. This reality has reflected on members of Parliament, who were picked according to a formula that takes into account balances in formal representation but disregards the political awareness of each MP. Observers drew attention to the fact that some MPs in the current parliament lack the minimum level of political awareness. Few MPS, generally close to the opposition, have proved their worth and demonstrated a good understanding of realities at hand, the observers said, noting that the majority of MPs, close to the government, have failed to do so. Amr Hashem Rabie, a researcher at Al-Ahram Centre for Strategic Studies, stressed that aspiring parliamentarians should work on their political awareness before filing their candidacy. Each candidate is supposed to have a political background that qualifies them to work in the public sphere, Rabie said, noting that there is need for the respect of the principles of dialogue and for the organisation of ideas and priorities. “If a candidate reaches Parliament, the task is then within the hands of the parliamentary training body, but what happens is that there is no interest in that at the present time, and there is no longer any consultation with experts on parliamentary work, so as to examine and evaluate the contributions of MPs with the aim of ensuring the development of their performance,” Rabie added in a statement to The Arab Weekly.
He noted that the electoral system in place has affected the process of learning and awareness. “In the presence of an overwhelming majority and a weak minority, there is no room for competition or a quality political debate. There is only one party that controls the work of Parliament,” he explained. Although parliament approved a package of important draft laws and discussed many key issues in the past period, a number of MPs have been dealing with sensitive matters in an amateurish way. During a discussion of the general budget and the economic development plan, in the presence of Finance Minister Mohamed Maait, Egyptian PM Hamada Zuhair said, “I swear on my own marriage that you are the best minister in Egypt, and that you came to our aid during such a critical juncture, just (like) God’s messenger Youssef did before.” Some MPs hailed Zuhair’s statements and the minister laughed in a way that showed he was somewhat pleased with the analogy. Zuhair made his statements in a humorous way and insisted on repeating the analogy in a theatrical manner, which eventually affected the formality of Parliament and the credibility of MPs,who are supposed to question ministers, not praise them. Zuhair did not realise that his statements would undermine the image of Parliament among Egyptians, downplaying the seriousness of the role that the legislative body plays in holding government members accountable. Most dangerously, Zuhair‘s statement almost caused religious conflict. Deputies of the Nour Party, the political arm of the Salafist movement, objected to Zuhair’s analogy, causing disorder during the parliamentary session. The Speaker of Parliament then intervened by removing the oath of divorce and the comparison to the Prophet Yusuf from the proceedings of the session. The Speaker also stressed the analogy made by the MP came as a metaphor. Former MP Yousri al-Assiouty said that some MPs are usually overwhelmed by their emotions or their relations with some ministers, failing to focus on their main task which consists in assessing the performance of the government. He stressed that MPs’ mistakes can affect the credibility of Parliament. “These mistakes could be exploited in many ways,” he warned.

Economic decline generates unfavourable prospects for Erdogan
ISTANBUL – Five years after President Tayyip Erdogan saw off a coup, his chances of extending his rule into a third decade may depend on whether he can reverse an economic decline that has seen Turks’ prosperity, equality and employment fall since 2013. Erdogan faces elections in 2023, the Turkish Republic’s centenary. Polls suggest his support has slipped following a currency crisis, a sharp recession and the coronavirus pandemic in the last three years. Some show the ruling coalition trailing an informal opposition alliance, even as Erdogan’s AK Party (AKP) remains popular, with a strong base among rural and working class conservatives. This year, economic growth has shot back up after Turkey was one of only a few countries to avoid a contraction in 2020. But the damage of recent years has included a return to inflation of 20% or more on food and other basic goods. “If you look at President Erdogan’s polling ratings together with a difficult economic backdrop, it’s quite hard to really imagine the conditions over the next 12 months for them to think an election looks favourable,” said Douglas Winslow, Fitch Ratings’ director of European sovereigns. The World Bank estimates more than 1.5 million Turks fell below the poverty line last year. And a Gini index of income and wealth distribution shows inequality has risen since 2011 and accelerated since 2013, wiping out big gains made in 2006-2010, during Erdogan’s first decade in charge.
2013 turning point
Modern Turkey’s longest-serving leader, Erdogan’s infant AKP won power in 2002 following the worst slump since the 1970s on a promise to break with the mismanagement and recessions that had long frustrated Turks anxious for a better life.
Then-prime minister Erdogan leveraged the economic rebound and a diplomatic pivot to the West to bring about a decade of prosperity. Poverty and unemployment plunged. Inflation that was in triple digits a decade earlier touched 5%, boosting the Turkish lira’s appeal for locals and foreigners.
Erdogan seemed untouchable. Things started changing in 2013, when unprecedented anti-government protests swept Turkey and emerging markets globally saw a painful financial exodus as larger economies gained steam. A Reuters analysis shows that year marked a turning point for per capita GDP, unemployment and other measures of economic well-being. The year 2013 was also the high water mark for foreign investments, according to official bond holdings statistics and Turkey Data Monitor. The value of the lira has since plunged, sapping Turks’ global purchasing power.
Crackdown and isolation
Erdogan shocked many when his government quashed the 2013 protests that began in Istanbul’s Gezi Park. The crackdown “crystallised the AKP as the new establishment and showed the popular tide was turning against them,” said Ates Altinordu, assistant professor of sociology at Sabanci University. The attempted coup of July 15, 2016 then prompted a harsh state of emergency that analysts say drove Turks’ economic well-being further south. “Since 2013, the AKP and Erdogan have moved to further increase authoritarianism, which probably hurt the economy in various ways,” Altinordu said.
“They entered a more isolated and centralised decision-making mode, with less media freedom. So you probably end up making more policy mistakes, you lose your responsiveness and there is much more room for corruption.” Other key measures such as healthcare remain robust after improving dramatically since Erdogan took office in 2003. As austerity imposed under a 2001-2 International Monetary Fund programme eased, Erdogan embraced free-market policies required to join the European Union, then a central AKP goal. The 2008-9 global financial crisis hit Turkey but also brought a rush of investors seeking returns in emerging markets. Cheap foreign credit served to drive a construction-fuelled economic boom that has helped the AKP win eight consecutive national elections. Erdogan has a “base of adoring and loyal supporters (because) citizens enjoyed significantly better living standards than under Kemalists for most of the 20th century,” wrote Soner Cagaptay in a report for The Washington Institute. He noted that before Erdogan came to power Turkey’s infant mortality rate was comparable to pre-war Syria’s and is now similar to Spain’s.
Intensifying strains
But other gauges of well-being began to creak in 2013 when the US Federal Reserve’s hint that it might start removing stimulus sucked funds out of emerging markets. Political strains intensified thereafter as Erdogan turned to nationalist allies and later won a referendum on adopting a presidential system that concentrated power at his palace. Some key economic officials left the AKP in opposition to the power grab. Analysts say cracks then started emerging in its policies, including pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates even as the lira tipped into crisis in 2018. The currency has shed 75% of its value against the dollar since 2013, more than half in the last three years. Many Turks now choose to store their wealth in foreign currencies. “On the political side, since 2013, there is a sense that Turkey and the West have been drifting apart,” said Roger Kelly, lead regional economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. “Yes, we have seen a deterioration since 2013, but we have to see it in the context of the positive steps that happened before that.”

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials published on July 15-16/2021
Who will listen to the cries of ordinary Muslims In Canada?
Tarek Fatah/Toronto Sun/July 15/2021
I recently had an informal meeting with 30 other Muslims to chat about their growing concerns over the growing infiltration of Islamist extremism in this country. Here are excerpts of what some of these ordinary Muslims in Canada had to say.
Raheel Raza, president of the Council for Muslims Facing Tomorrow, said: “For someone who has received death threats and a fatwa simply for warning Canadians about the dangers of Islamism, I feel betrayed. Unfortunately, the agenda of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Iranian ayatollahs and Pakistan’s security agency ISI are not only at play in Canada but have penetrated our political system. It seems Canadian politicians would rather uphold the medieval agenda of the Islamists rather than those of us who embrace Canadian values and refuse to play the victim card.”
Filmmaker Mazahir Rahim, who has roots in Bollywood, said even though he has been in Canada for just over five years, he is alarmed at the influence more extreme voices have over Canada’s political class.
“Those who believe the West is to blame for 9/11 and chat about the evil nature of non-Islamic societies — hate Jews, Hindus and liberal democracy — have the most influence on our MPs and MPPs, while the ordinary Muslim who has come to Canada to escape the tyranny of the mullahs finds out that the mosque establishment has all three political parties wrapped around their little finger,” he observed.
“If I say that Canada is the best place in the world for Muslims, I am lectured about its evil nature. But then the same believers in the supremacy of Sharia Islamic law are seen pushing each other to get selfies, while politicians glad-handle those who desire a caliphate in Canada and avoid Muslims who have integrated into Canadian society.”
Intizar Zaidi, assistant editor of the online newspaper Canadian Asian News, has been in Canada for 40 years and finds the influence of the Islamist voices — many second-generation — more radical than their parents.
“They desire Islamic Law in Canada, which their parents fled when they left countries such as Iran, Pakistan and Somalia to embrace this country’s secular liberal democracy and gender equality,” he says. “There was a time when political parties would encourage integration.”
Ahmad Chaudhury, who lived in Australia and the U.K. before settling down in Toronto, has stories from his WhatsApp groups of Muslims in Canada who consider this country as essentially a place to benefit from, but a sin to embrace.
“Unless religion is separated from politics, like in Quebec and Europe, Canadian politicians are playing with fire,” Chaudhury said. He points to the differing reactions to attacks on churches compared to attacks on mosques and how the first is considered more acceptable than the second.
Realtor Mumtaz Khan said he was worried how his children in the public school system were being identified as Muslims while at home they are taught to be first and foremost Canadian and to respect and honour Western civilization.
“We want our kids to be Canadian above any other identity, but the school system is being manipulated to push them into the silo of the darkness that envelopes most of the Islamic world,” said Khan. He revealed he is aware of politicians encouraging the creation of mosque-like spaces inside many urban schools of Canada. The 30 of us sat until late in the evening. One of them put it rather bluntly: “We should admit, we have lost the battle. In the climate of wokeness and political correctness, we are all casualties.”
We shall meet again, but this time we will remember Aqsa Parvez, who was killed in Canada for not wearing a hijab and honour the forgotten souls of the Shafia sisters, who were drowned by their own family for simply asking to live like Canadians, not Afghans under Taliban.
That is if the death threats that are part of our lives do not materialize.

'Truth is Buoyant' for Nations Seeking Global Leadership
Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/July 15, 2021
First published in 1989, [Paul Kennedy's] book, "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers,"... should be required reading in Washington.
Against this battering from Beijing, the Biden Administration seems to be sleepwalking. In response to the CCP's military expansion journalists say our defense budget will be – in essence – flat, at best.
While these mistakes, missteps, and missed opportunities are early in Biden's term, the Chinese also know the proverb that "Truth is buoyant" – it will surface at some point and become obvious to all. When it does, will America still have the means to preserve its security and freedom?
Communist China has dramatically increased its military strength – from an ocean-going navy to new stealth fighters to an aggressive space program. Pictured: Sailors and fighter jets on the deck of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy aircraft carrier Liaoning in the sea near Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province on April 23, 2019. (Photo by Mark Schiefelbein/AFP via Getty Images)
History reminds us that great nations have been brought down when their leaders failed the ultimate test – one that requires unwavering courage, insightful vision, and resolute patriotism.
Historian Paul Kennedy writes in his book "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers" that empires able to bring superior economic and technological resources to bear invariably win the pitiless fight for global power. First published in 1989, his book is not only relevant today but should be required reading in Washington.
One has to wonder if anyone currently in the Biden White House is familiar with Kennedy's research; it spans the centuries, from Spain's undisputed leadership in the 1500s to the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Soviet Union. It is a roadmap that leads readers straight to the gates of Beijing where the present communist leadership has harnessed enormous economic power, a growing arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, and a surveillance technology of its population that Stalin and Hitler could only dream of.
Current satellite imagery has revealed the stunning news that Communist China is building what defense analysts believe are more than 100 new silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
This action cannot be taken as an isolated decision: Communist China has dramatically increased its military strength – from an ocean-going navy to new stealth fighters to an aggressive space program. The leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) also seem to think nothing of allowing spent boosters to fall back to earth wherever they may. Meanwhile Hong Kong's democracy is being strangled while international media has exposed how China seeks to crush their Uighur minority in sprawling prison camps.
China's global shadow is only lengthening. This autumn will mark the second anniversary of a COVID virus from Wuhan whose actual origin inside China is still being debated by a global health organization that lacks both the means and political will to actually access the data that would reveal the truth.
Against this battering from Beijing, the Biden Administration seems to be sleepwalking. In response to the CCP's military expansion journalists say our defense budget will be – in essence – flat, at best. There are urgent needs and well-deserved increases for US military pay but the Chinese can keep growing their military confident that we are not investing anywhere near the sums needed to respond to their moves. Hand-wringing aside, the Biden's response to the Uighur outrage is his Treasury Department issuing sanctions that probably would not even be noticed by China unless they read the press release.
As the CCP carefully plots its strategy for a return to global dominance it would not be surprising if they are reflecting on the wisdom of one of America's founding fathers, Patrick Henry, who wrote, "I have no way of judging the future but by the past..." They would see a Biden White House incapable of inspiring its citizenry, indifferent to crisis, and captured by Progressive ideologues whose pork-barrel policies will create a national debt so vast that it will threaten our nation's future.
While these mistakes, missteps, and missed opportunities are early in Biden's term, the Chinese also know the proverb that "Truth is buoyant" – it will surface at some point and become obvious to all. When it does, will America still have the means to preserve its security and freedom?
*Lawrence Kadish is a national real estate developer and entrepreneur and witness to an era when the song "Brother can you spare a dime" revealed an America determined to escape the grip of The Great Depression.
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Opinion: Canadian government policy is strengthening Iran’s malign regime
Tzvi Kahn/National Post/Jul 15/2021
Canada should rescind its support for reviving the JCPOA nuclear deal and demand Tehran address the full range of its malevolent conduct
Iran has elected — or, more precisely, Tehran has selected — Ebrahim Raisi, the “hanging judge,” as the country’s next president. On June 18, a minority of Iranians — just 48.8 per cent — went to the polls to choose their preferred candidate from a slate of four handpicked by the regime. It wasn’t much of a choice: Each contender embraced the radical creed of the Islamic Revolution, professing loyalty to Iran’s ultimate decision-maker, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Only days later, the Canadian government released a report holding Tehran responsible for the downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 on Jan. 8, 2020. The shootdown killed 176 people, including 85 Canadian citizens and permanent residents. Commenting on the report, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused the government of Tehran of “recklessness, incompetence, and wanton disregard for human life.”
It’s a moment of reckoning for Canadian policy toward Iran
And on Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that it had indicted four Iranian intelligence agents plotting to abduct Iranian journalist and human rights activist Masih Alinejad, who lives in New York, and take her to Iran. The court indictment indicated the planned kidnapping was part of a larger plot to lure activists critical of the Iranian government to that country, including three unnamed Canadians. All four suspects in the Alinejad kidnapping plot remain at large in Iran.
These three developments, though unconnected on the surface, lead to a shared conclusion: No longer can Ottawa maintain the illusion of a split in Iran’s government between so-called “moderates,” like Hassan Rouhani, and “hardliners,” such as Raisi. In fact, this misperception has led Canada to favour policies easing pressure on Iran, contributing to the impunity that Tehran currently enjoys for its malign conduct, including the downing of Flight PS752 and the plot against Alinejad.
Of the four candidates who ran for Iranian office, Raisi deservedly bears the most notoriety. In a career spanning four decades, mostly in Iran’s judiciary, he has presided over the incarceration, torture and execution of countless political prisoners. In particular, he played a leading role in the 1988 massacre of thousands of jailed dissidents.
Rouhani has an egregious human rights record as well, controverting his reputation in the West as a moderate. Tehran’s regional aggression and domestic repression continued under Rouhani’s presidency, and he served on Iran’s national security council during the 1988 massacre, making him complicit in the bloodshed. In contrast to Raisi, however, Rouhani has largely managed to escape Western opprobrium by employing moderate rhetoric and making frequent — and unfulfilled — promises to improve human rights in Iran.
Unfortunately, Ottawa is inadvertently facilitating Tehran’s misconduct.
In a June 13 meeting, the Group of 7 (G7) — an inter-governmental organization consisting of the world’s most advanced economies, including Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States — issued a joint statement expressing support for ongoing talks between Washington and Tehran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. A return to the agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), could “pave the way to further address regional and security concerns,” the statement said, including Tehran’s support for “proxy forces and non-state armed actors” as well as its “ballistic missile activities.”
But Raisi — like Rouhani before him — has already rejected these demands. “Regional and missile issues are not negotiable,” said Raisi on June 20, echoing an assertion by Rouhani last year. “The U.S. tried for months to include the missiles program and we told them it’s non-negotiable,” Rouhani said. “They tried for months to include regional issues as well. They were all discussed and rejected.”
The shared intransigence of Rouhani and Raisi reflects the supreme leader’s negotiating strategy. After all, if the United States rejoins the JCPOA, Washington will have surrendered its robust economic leverage, leaving Tehran with no incentive to negotiate a stronger and broader deal. The Islamist regime resumed talks with America this year only in order to garner sanctions relief. Once Iran receives that relief, why would it want or need to negotiate with America over Tehran’s regional influence and ballistic missile program?
Thus, over the past weeks of negotiations, Iran has exploited Washington’s eagerness to revive the JCPOA by pressing U.S. negotiators for sanctions relief far broader than what the nuclear deal originally required. As a condition for re-entering the accord, both Rouhani and Raisi have called for the revocation of all sanctions that any U.S. administration has imposed on the country, including penalties on Tehran’s ballistic missile program, human rights abuses, and support for terrorist groups.
Iran has exploited Washington’s eagerness to revive the JCPOA
By joining the G7 statement, Canada lends credence to the ill-advised notion that a renewal of the JCPOA could serve as the basis for a stronger and broader deal. Instead, it would shower Iran with billions of dollars in sanctions relief that it could use to fuel its aggression both at home and abroad, thereby weakening Ottawa’s ability to hold Iran accountable for the downing of Flight PS752.
It shouldn’t take the election of two presidents with blood on their hands, or the downing of a civilian airliner, or the plotted kidnapping of human rights activists, including Canadians, to recognize the true nature of Iran’s regime. But with Raisi occupying the presidency, the regime has presented an undeniable reminder of its massive human rights violations. Canada should act accordingly by rescinding its support for reviving the JCPOA. Instead, at this moment of reckoning, Ottawa should make clear that Tehran must negotiate a new deal that addresses the full range of its malign conduct.
*Tzvi Kahn is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington, D.C.-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Follow him on Twitter @TzviKahn.

Iraq’s PM has two choices — change or further stagnation
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/July 15/2021
My suggestion that a federal or decentralized political system be established in Lebanon has brought criticism from some in my Middle East network. They agree with my views on the state of the country, and the role of Hezbollah and Iran, but disagree on the solution.
One of the main counter-examples used to argue against my federal push is Iraq. They say that Iraq has implemented a federal government, but the country is weaker and Iranian militias have grown stronger as a result. The same would happen in Lebanon, their argument goes, and, in fact, what is needed is a centralized powerful executive system that brings back order to all. My answer is that I do not believe Iraq has implemented a true federal system but has subordinated regions to Iranian power.
I will admit to judging Nouri Al-Maliki, Iraq’s first post-war prime minister, wrongly. I, for one, thought that having a strong Shiite leader would appease the country’s nascent Shiite political leadership and community, reassure Iran, and allow for the state building process to start. The view was that after years of oppression, a federal Iraq would liberate the Shiite community, as well as the Sunni and Kurdish communities since they were all living under the same Baath party oppression.
Unfortunately, the opposite happened. Al-Maliki did not support the federal system, but pushed to centralize political decision-making within his coalition on key issues, and punished and violently isolated other Iraqi communities.
While Kurdistan had their peshmergas and could protect themselves, the Arab Sunnis were not so lucky, and a heavy price was paid. Many analysts blame the rise of Daesh and extremism in that region on the state repeatedly letting down the Sunni community after 2003. It is still difficult to understand how this extremist and terrorist organization was able to defeat US-trained Iraqi forces in such a short period in 2014.
The impact of what followed was clear. It gave a free hand to all Iran’s allies in the region — not only Al-Maliki in Iraq but also Bashar Assad in Syria. One of Al-Maliki’s most damaging actions was to adopt a hostile stance toward Arab countries and throw himself into support for the Iranian regime by allowing, if not encouraging, pro-Iranian militias to take root in Iraq. This went in parallel with high-levels of corruption linked to Tehran. As prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi is trying to rebalance this situation, but he has inherited a decrepit state on many levels, including a health system that is tightly controlled by the Iranian regime in Iraq. The result of this corruption is a health care system in poor condition and prone to serious accidents. This was clear in the hospital blaze in the southern Iraqi city of Nasiriyah on Monday that killed more than 92 people. The latest tragedy comes only months after a hospital fire in Baghdad killed more than 80 people. It is symbolic of Iranian interference and the way Tehran has built an extractive economy in Iraq. This also applies to electricity, education and infrastructure.
Unfortunately, pro-Iranian militias are growing stronger. And, today, Iran feels emboldened by the negotiations for a new Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or Iran nuclear deal. There is a clear expectation of an upcoming finance boom for the Iran regime. In these conditions, can Iraq escape Iran’s grip? Is Iraq doomed to become a failed state like Lebanon? In that respect there are more links between the two countries than are generally imagined.
As is the case in Lebanon, Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary elections in October are unlikely to bring a viable solution to the country’s ills. Why? Simply because the militias are above the law. This is clear when more than 70 activists have been killed or abducted in the past year by these armed groups, including the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), which are, in theory, under the supervision of the prime minister’s office. So what are the possibilities for real change that would put Iraq on the path toward becoming a stable and prosperous state for all its citizens? The only way is to start with a complete dismantling and disarming of the militias.Is there a regional agreement with the Tehran regime that will convince them to support positive change? It seems that the Iranian demand for this is not worth the price for international and regional powers who are now used to this instability and have accommodated themselves with it. Moreover, no one likes to yield to blackmail as it is an invitation to similar situations. And Iran is taking Iraq, Lebanon and the region hostage and pursuing a strategy of blackmail.
The upcoming elections are unlikely to bring a viable solution to Iraq’s ills — simply because the militias are above the law.
Hence, there is little hope that in the wake of a new nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions the Iranian regime will launch a positive initiative for stability in the Middle East. One would expect the opposite to happen, with more support and expansion from its proxies in the region, especially as Western capitals begin discussing the resurgence of Daesh. One solution put forward for stability in Iraq is regime change in Iran, but despite my opposition to the actions of this regime in the Arab world, I believe this would be an even more dangerous and explosive option.
The real possibility for change can come only with a new balance of power on the ground. And the only way to counterbalance and force the militias to disengage is the streets: An alliance of large numbers of protesters with the honorable men and women in the Iraqi armed forces. This alone will force change.
Al-Kadhimi could be the man to lead this change since he is respected and popular. Yet, he will need to make an important choice: Stand with the protesters and activists, such as Ali Al-Mikdam, the abducted journalist he visited in hospital last week. Or stand with the PMU, which is accused of Al-Mikdam’s abduction and whose military parade the PM recently attended. The Arab world is in need of this change.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.