English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 13/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews21/english.july13.21.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus Stresses the Importance Of persistence in life
Luke 11/05-08: “And he said to them, ‘Suppose one of you has a friend, and you go to him at midnight and say to him, “Friend, lend me three loaves of bread; for a friend of mine has arrived, and I have nothing to set before him.” And he answers from within, “Do not bother me; the door has already been locked, and my children are with me in bed; I cannot get up and give you anything.”I tell you, even though he will not get up and give him anything because he is his friend, at least because of his persistence he will get up and give him whatever he needs.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 12-13/2021
Amer Fakhoury Foundation stands with the people of Lebanon and the victims of the Beirut explosion.
MoPH: 150 new coronavirus cases, 2 deaths
Families of port blast victims protest outside Zeaiter's Mashnouq's houses
President Aoun addresses situation of tourism sector with Minister Msharrafiyeh
Berri: Bogging Lebanon down in disruption is outright treason
Berri Says 'No Immunity for Any Wrongdoer' in Port Blast Case
Report: Bitar Refuses to Give Parliament More Info on Three MPs
BDL: Al-Sayyed Spreading Rumors, Lebanon Gold is Safe
Bassil Says Unfair to Prosecute Those who ‘Did Their Job’ in Port Case
U.S., French Ambassadors Hold Talks with Saudi Counterpart
Raad Says ‘Third War’ Remarks Don’t Reflect Israel’s True Will
Ex-Renault Boss Ghosn Rejects Blame in Dieselgate Probe
Fahmi issues decision banning storage of fuel oil
Bukhari meets US, French Ambassadors
Ali Ibrahim tells NNA news about increasing bread bundle price by LBP 1500 not true
Japan and UNDP partner to support the sustainable recovery of Lebanon from the Beirut Blast
France says EU has decided to pressure Lebanon’s leaders with sanctions
Opposition groups eye 2022 parliamentary elections to force change in Lebanon

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 12-13/2021
Pope Francis to spend few more days in hospital after operation
Opposition meeting shows Iran’s degree of isolation in the West
Jordan ex-officials sentenced to 15 years in jail over ‘coup plot’
EU Seeks Israel 'Fresh Start' as Minister Visits
Cuba Accuses U.S. of Seeking 'Social Unrest' after Rare Protests
Suez Canal nets Egypt record revenue of $5.84 billion
Egypt’s top diplomat meets Israeli counterpart in Brussels
New Spanish FM faces the challenge of winning Morocco’s trust
Russia warns against 'outside Interference' after Cuba protests
US Warns Cuba Against Targeting Protesters
Yellen urges EU to back global tax deal, keep fiscal support
Israeli demolition of Bedouin homes in West Bank ‘unlawful and heartless,’ says UN expert

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 12-13/2021
Iran regime refocusing on nuclear weapons goal/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/July 12/2021
History repeating itself as Western troops leave Afghanistan/Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/July 12/2021
Iran’s middle class marginalized by regime/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/July 12/2021
Audio from FDD: The UN System: What Went Wrong and What Should Be Done/Clifford D. May/Richard Goldberg/Morgan Lorraine Viña/July 12/2021
Taliban squeezes Afghan government by seizing key border towns/Bill Roggio/FDD's Long War Journal/July 12/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 12-13/2021
Amer Fakhoury Foundation stands with the people of Lebanon and the victims of the Beirut explosion.
Amer Fakhoury Foundation/July 12/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/100578/amer-fakhoury-foundation-stands-with-the-people-of-lebanon-and-the-victims-of-the-beirut-explosion-%d9%85%d8%a4%d8%b3%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d9%87%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%b1-%d9%81/
Our foundation stands with the people of Lebanon and the victims of the Beirut explosion. We condemn all those who are playing a role in covering up for those responsible for what happened. We are disappointed to see corrupted politicians using their “immunity” to escape repercussions of their actions that led to the Beirut explosion. Every single person of interest that was called on by Judge Bitar should be questioned and interrogated. These are some of the same officials that played a role in our father’s torture that led to his death. We call on the US government to hold accountable those responsible for the death of hundreds, including our father, and advocate to lift immunity on those who should be questioned.

MoPH: 150 new coronavirus cases, 2 deaths
NNA/July 12/2021
150 new coronavirus cases and two more deaths have been recorded in Lebanon in the last 24 hours, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health on Monday.

Families of port blast victims protest outside Zeaiter's Mashnouq's houses
LCCC/July 12/2021
Families of the Beirut port blast victims protested today angrily and loudly outside the houses of former minister Ghazi Zeaiter and former minister Nohad Mashnouq . They demanded that both officials succumb to the judiciaryand put themselves under and not above the law. They want that both of them be investigated by Judge Bitar without any kind of parliamentary immunity.

President Aoun addresses situation of tourism sector with Minister Msharrafiyeh
NNA/July 12/2021 
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, met Tourism and Social Affairs’ Minister, Ramzi Msharrafiyeh and his Advisor for tourism affairs, Hanna Maalouf, today at the Presidential Palace. The situation of tourism, in light of positive expectations in the promising summer season were discussed, in addition to the procedures taken to facilitate traveler-affairs at the Rafic Hariri International Airport.
Statement:
After the meeting, Minister Msharrafiyeh made the following statement:
“I met His Excellency the President of the Republic, and conveyed the image of the tourism situation, despite the tragedies which Lebanon is witnessing and pressures on the economic situation, including fuel and electricity scarcity.
We must stop at the glimmer of hope which this sector might add to the current situation. I briefed His Excellency on the new measures which have been taken at the airport to alleviate the overcrowding crisis caused by scanner and PCR checks. I would also like to address the Lebanese to be cautious in distancing and take the necessary preventive measures which we must not forget in light of COVID-19 mutations, so that we do not have to go back and take measures which were harsh in the past months. Thanks to God, the Health Ministry, and the medical and nursing staffs, we have reached a safe situation at the moment.
We also discussed the conference which took place in the brotherly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the bilateral talks with 13 Arab Tourism Ministers, and there will be also a conference in Egypt to complete discussions, at the end of this month. The discussion also tackled the bilateral agreement with Iraq, especially regarding religious tourism and the tripartite summit which will convene next September between Cyprus, Greece and Lebanon.
The meeting was an occasion for a general discussion, and I reiterate that in the midst of difficult economic conditions, there is a glimmer of hope which we must use in the best manner. I also call on the media to exert efforts in showing the good image of Lebanon, so that we can all contribute to strengthening tourism”.
Questions & Answers:
Question: Is there any activation for the tasks of the Tourism Police in controlling prices in restaurants and tourism regions?
Answer: “The Tourism Police , along with the Tourist Police in the ministry, are exerting great efforts. I would like to remind that we, as a ministry, can only make sure that the prices are stamped with the ministry’s seal and are available at the entrances of restaurants or hotels, in order to inform customers of the prices when they enter. We do not control prices, and this is due to the Consumer Protection Department in the Economy Ministry. However, we are working with the Economy Ministry on the issue of high prices to keep pace with price changes caused by the exchange rate”.
Question: Will tourism be discussed at the Lebanese-Cypriot-Greek summit?
Answer: “This conference is for the sake of tourism and its activation among the three countries. As we concluded a bilateral agreement with Iraq, we will also conclude an agreement with Cyprus and Greece. We hope that at the end of this month, our visit to Egypt will mark the beginning of an agreement to encourage this sector, since we consider tourism among Arab countries as domestic tourism, given that languages, customs and traditions are the same and are shared by all countries, which is what we encourage”.—Presidency Press Office

Berri: Bogging Lebanon down in disruption is outright treason
NNA/July 12/2021
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday issued a statement marking the commemoration of the Israeli 2006 aggression against Lebanon. “July 12, 2006, was a test for all the Lebanese of their loyalty, national affiliation, and their unity; a test of their will to persevere and resist,” Berri said, lauding the Lebanese people’s huge success in this bitter test. “Our homeland faces the same test today; a test in belonging, unity, steadfastness and resistance, but will we succeed?” pondered Berri.  “We must succeed, and we have no other choice but to succeed, because the fall of Lebanon is tantamount to a free victory for the Israeli enemy, which awaits opportunities to attack Lebanon, and to confiscate its wealth, and its role,” he added. Furthermore, Berri said that bogging Lebanon down in obstruction, dumping its institutions into deadly vacuum, and indulging in political and constitutional absurdity, were all acts that amounted to outright “treason” against Lebanon and the Lebanese.“We affirm, with all transparency and calm, that there will be no immunity for anyone involved in any crime [port blast and corruption]. The parliament will support the judiciary to the fullest extent under the roof of the law and the constitution,” Berri added, affirming that “immunity is only for the blood of the martyrs, for the homeland, for human dignity, for the constitution and the law, and absolutely ‘not’ for the law of the jungle.”

Berri Says 'No Immunity for Any Wrongdoer' in Port Blast Case
Naharnet /July 12/2021
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Monday stressed that “there will be no immunity for any wrongdoer” in the port blast case, days after lawmakers held an indecisive meeting over Judge Tarek al-Bitar’s request for lifting the parliamentary immunity of three MPs.
“We stress to the families of the martyrs, wounded and those affected that the crime of the Beirut port blast was a national crime that deeply affected the Lebanese, and we will not accept, under any circumstances, less than knowing the entire truth with all its details and penalizing those who caused it regardless of their positions,” Berri said in a written statement marking the 2006 war with Israel. “The shortest route to the truth would be implementing the law away from incitement and to put the cause of the martyrs and its sacredness before any political, electoral or populist considerations,” the Speaker added. “With all due transparency and calm, we emphasize that there will be no immunity for any wrongdoer in any position, and that parliament will cooperate with the judiciary to the utmost level, under the ceiling of the law and constitution,” Berri went on to say, noting that “immunity is solely for the blood of the martyrs and for the country, human’s dignity, the constitution and the law, not for the law of the jungle.”As for the issue of the stalled government formation process, Berri said “obstruction” and “political and constitutional absurdity” are tantamount to “treason against Lebanon and the Lebanese.”

Report: Bitar Refuses to Give Parliament More Info on Three MPs
Naharnet/July 12/2021
The lead investigative judge into the Beirut port blast, Tarek al-Bitar, has informed Parliament Bureau his rejection to provide it with any additional documents related to the MPs Nouhad al-Mashnouq, Ghazi Zoaiter and Ali Hassan Khalil, al-Jadeed TV said on Monday. “In a memo sent to Parliament Bureau, Bitar considered that he is not obliged to submit any additional documents regarding the three MPs, seeing as any additional info that he might give would compromise the confidentiality of the investigation,” al-Jadeed quoted judicial sources as saying. The sources added that the judge has already sent parliament information explaining the suspicions about the three MPs, who had served as ministers in recent years.

BDL: Al-Sayyed Spreading Rumors, Lebanon Gold is Safe
Naharnet/July 12/2021
The Banque du Liban – Lebanon’s central bank -- assured Monday that “Lebanon’s gold is safe,” in response to MP Jamil al-Sayyed’s remarks that BDL Governor Riad Salameh “had partially or totally disposed of the gold owned by the Central Bank.”
The Central Bank said that Lebanon’s gold reserves “have not been touched,” and will not be touched nor used “as a mortgage” against the country’s interests “as some people wish.”“Al-Sayyed has been spreading rumors and lies about the Central Bank and its governor and against the banking sector in Lebanon,” the BDL charged. The Banque du Liban also underlined that it will “preserve the obligatory (foreign currency) reserve,” and called on the officials to revive the Lebanese economy and regain local and international trust by “forming a new government that will implement the required reforms."

Bassil Says Unfair to Prosecute Those who ‘Did Their Job’ in Port Case
Naharnet/July 12/2021
Head of the Free Patriotic Movement Jebran Bassil tweeted on Monday about the Beirut blast “tragedy,” saying that “the worst thing is injustice, and it is unjust for a crime to go unpunished.”He called for immunity lifting so that “justice takes its course, the perpetrator gets punished and the innocent gets acquitted.” Bassil stated that “there are definitely people, including officials, who were aware of the (ammonium) nitrate issue but remained silent, and it would be unjust if they don’t get punished.”“But it is also unfair,” according to the FPM chief, “to prosecute those who were aware and did their job and did not remain silent!” Bassil wrote that “it is necessary to interrogate all the accused” and concluded that “this is how justice prevails.”

U.S., French Ambassadors Hold Talks with Saudi Counterpart
Naharnet/July 12/2021
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari on Monday held talks at the embassy in Beirut with U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea and French Ambassador to Lebanon Anne Grillo, the Saudi embassy said. A statement issued by the embassy said the meeting tackled “the political developments in the Lebanese and regional arenas and issues of common interest.”The meeting comes days after the U.S. and French ambassadors held rare talks in Saudi Arabia over the situation in Lebanon.
During that visit, Grillo and Shea stressed the “desperate need” for “a fully empowered (Lebanese) government that is committed to and able to implement reforms.”

Raad Says ‘Third War’ Remarks Don’t Reflect Israel’s True Will
Naharnet/July 12/2021
Head of Hizbullah’s Loyalty to Resistance bloc, MP Mohammed Raad, said Monday in a radio interview that “the Israeli bravados and statements about an upcoming third war on Lebanon do not reflect an Israeli will, neither from the government nor from the public.”He added that these bellicose statements rather indicate “a hostile intention from the countries supporting the Israeli enemy.” Raad considered that the Israeli government “is incapable of waging a war on Lebanon” and that the Israeli public is “too cowardly to face the resistance in an upcoming war.” He also pointed out that PM-designate Saad Hariri “tried to coexist with a (parliamentary) majority opposed to his project, but was defeated later on by his (foreign) masters."

Ex-Renault Boss Ghosn Rejects Blame in Dieselgate Probe
Agence France Presse/July 12/2021
Former Nissan and Renault boss Carlos Ghosn denied any responsibility in Renault's alleged cheating on emission tests for diesel vehicles during more than six hours of questioning in Beirut in May, according to documents seen by AFP.
Ghosn led the Franco-Japanese car-making alliance before his arrest in Japan in 2018 on allegations of financial crimes, which he denies. He jumped bail and fled to Lebanon a year later. Three French magistrates travelled to Beirut from Paris to question the 67-year-old fallen auto titan over the emissions scandal in which several other automakers, including Volkswagen, Peugeot and Citroen have also been embroiled.
Ghosn, who was questioned as a witness, claimed that he did not get involved in issues relating to engine performance at his level of management, according to the minutes of the interview. Noting that between 2016 and 2018 he was also head of Nissan's and Renault's smaller partner Mitsubishi, "meaning three companies spanning two continents, you can well imagine that I did not know the engines in detail," he said during the questioning on May 26. The "Dieselgate" scandal began at Volkswagen, which admitted in 2015 to using "defeat devices" to cheat on emissions tests in 11 million diesel engines.
It has since ensnared other auto-makers and triggered investigations in several countries, including in France where Citroen, Peugeot, Renault and Volkswagen have all been charged with deception over emissions.In 2016, France's anti-fraud office pointed a finger directly at Ghosn, saying that Renault's "entire chain of command" was implicated in the affair and that the cheating was part of "company strategy."
'Not a car person' -
But Ghosn, who led Renault from 2005 to 2019, denied that the company faked emissions readings in the interview, which was first revealed by Le Monde newspaper earlier this month. "We in no way skimped on respect for (environmental) standards," the Brazilian-born tycoon, who also has French and Lebanese citizenship, told investigators.
While admitting that Renault struggled with "performance" issues, he said it was "nothing that could come close to what other manufacturers are accused of, in terms of knowingly hiding the results." On technical questions, he referred investigators to his former subordinates, including Carlos Tavares, his former deputy who now heads an alliance between Peugeot, Fiat Chrysler and Opel. "I'm not a car person," said Ghosn, insisting that he was above all "a manufacturer."

Fahmi issues decision banning storage of fuel oil
NNA/July 12/2021 
Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Brigadier General Mohammad Fahmi, on Monday issued a decision in which he ordered all governorates across Lebanon to ban the storage of fuel oil inside residential buildings, shops, and warehouses, especially in the vicinity of residential buildings.
Fahmi’s decision also threatened to confiscate stored materials if captured.

Bukhari meets US, French Ambassadors
NNA/July 12/2021
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid bin Abdullah Bukhari, on Monday welcomed at the Embassy’s headquarters, the US and French Ambassadors to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea and Anne Grillo. Talks touched on the current prevailing political developments on the Lebanese and regional arena, in addition to issues of mutual concern, as per a statement by the Saudi Embassy.

Ali Ibrahim tells NNA news about increasing bread bundle price by LBP 1500 not true
NNA/July 12/2021
Bakery Owners Syndicate head, Ali Ibrahim, on Monday denied in a call with the "National News Agency" the rumors that have been circulating via social media suggesting an increase in the bread bundle price within the coming few days by LBP 750 and 1,500, raising the unit’s price to approximately LBP 6000.

Japan and UNDP partner to support the sustainable recovery of Lebanon from the Beirut Blast
NNA/July 12/2021
The Government of Japan and the United NationsDevelopment Programme (UNDP) will support Lebanon’s sustainable recovery, amidst the multiple crises that the country is facing. This renewedpartnership will seek to build Lebanon forward, with a focus on strengthening disaster risk management, and waste management. The support comes at a particularly difficult time for Lebanon as the country is facing multi-faceted challenges, including an economic, financial and fiscal crisis, combined with the devastating consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the August 4 2020 port explosions.
In line with the Recovery, Reform and Reconstruction Framework (3RF), the Government of Japan will be supporting an integrated response to the numerous crises faced by Lebanon by mainstreaming sustainable and long-term development approaches into the recovery efforts. The funding and technical expertise provided by the Government of Japan will among other things address waste management, particularly with regards to hazardous and electronic waste (e-waste), which remains a main challenge for the country. Particularly, UNDP’s demolition waste assessment report showed that a significant amount of E-waste was identified after Beirut Port Explosion, requiring specific treatment. Even before the crisis, Lebanon did not have the infrastructure to properly manage this type of waste, and the new partnership with Japan will seek to find solutions in an environmentally friendly way.
“I am extremely happy to share the news with the Lebanese people that we have launched the important project in partnership with UNDP for reconstruction and recovery from the destructions caused by the Beirut Port blast, which is nearing one year anniversary. As the people faces unprecedented socio-economic and financial crises in a continuous manner, Japan remains to stand hand in hand with the people of Lebanon in this difficult time,” said H.E. Mr. Okubo Takeshi, Ambassador of Japan to Lebanon
“UNDP remains committed to build Lebanon forward, with a focus on a green, inclusive and sustainable recovery. Our long-standing partnership with the Government of Japan will be essential in helping us achieve these goals, as we work together to leave no-one behind.” Celine Moyroud, UNDP Resident Representative, said. Japan remains one of the strongest partners for UNDP globally and regionally and has been a champion of initiatives anchored in human security, the humanitarian-development nexus, climate action and environmental sustainability. UNDP Lebanon is grateful for the long-standing partnership with the Government of Japan and its contribution of over USD 17 million since 2014 in support of host communities, and the environment. -- UNDP Lebanon

France says EU has decided to pressure Lebanon’s leaders with sanctions
AFP/12 July ,2021
EU foreign ministers on Monday agreed to move ahead towards sanctions against Lebanon’s ruling elite over the political crisis wracking the country, the bloc’s foreign policy chief said. Josep Borrell said the top diplomats from the 27 nations gave the green light at a meeting in Brussels to establish a legal framework for measures against Lebanese leaders who have driven their nation into economic collapse. “The objective is to complete this by the end of the month,” Borrell said. A political crisis has left the country without a functioning government since the last one resigned after a massive explosion killed dozens and destroyed swathes of Beirut in August 2020. “The economy’s imploding and the suffering of the people of Lebanon is continuously growing,” Borrell said. “They need to have a Lebanese government in order to avoid the breakdown of the country, (one that is) fully able to implement reforms and protect this population.”Lebanon is mired in what the World Bank has called one of the worst economic crises since the 1850s, and the cash-strapped state is struggling to buy enough fuel to keep the lights on. The economic crisis has seen the Lebanese pound lose more than 90 percent of its value against the dollar on the black market, and left more than half the population living below the poverty line.In April, France imposed sanctions by restricting entry of Lebanese figures it says are responsible for the political crisis.

Opposition groups eye 2022 parliamentary elections to force change in Lebanon
Houshig Kaymakamian, Al Arabiya English/12 July ,2021
Since 2019, when a mass uprising failed to achieve immediate political change in Lebanon, the country has lurched from crisis to crisis. The current political class has remained in power for the last three decades, and the nation’s collapse is their responsibility and theirs alone. The parliamentary elections set for mid-2022 are largely seen as the avenue in which substantial change is achievable unless they are postponed. Given the current environment, no eventuality can be ruled out. A large number of opposition political groups were established after the October 17 uprising in 2019. They are trying to organize, along with other already present opposition parties. Minteshreen is one of these groups, a youth led-movement established on the back of the uprising and organized into a political movement after the Beirut Port blast in 2020. Another movement is much older. The National Bloc was first established in the 1940s but relaunched in 2018, scraping off its stale political inheritance in the process through the introduction of reforms in its internal structure.
Speaking to Al Arabiya English, several opposition party members and political commentators revealed the chances of success for the growing number of new parties and their efforts to mobilize in the effort for real change. Too many offering too little. With so many groups vying to position themselves on the political scene, these expanding opposition factions face difficulty organizing a common front to effectively challenge the traditional parties safely entrenched in the current political system. “There is no justifiable reason as to why there are so many parties,” Bassel Salloukh, Associate Professor of Political Science at the Lebanese American University, said. With so many new and old parties in the opposition, this will play against them in the elections, Salloukh believes, “because sectarian parties are much more organized, and they have the electoral law and the infrastructure [to win].”
But those involved in these groups do not see this as an impediment.
“We might have many parties and groups with our differences, but when the time comes, we will all work for the common goal which is to get rid of [this] political class,” Laury Haytayan, founding member of Taqaddom, a political party formed in the past year, said. With Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing political system in place since the end of the 1975-1990 Civil War, no real opposition has existed to counter the status quo. “The sectarian system in Lebanon is organized in such a way as to not allow for the emergence of a viable opposition,” Salloukh explained. Lebanon is facing a multitude of crises on the economic and social fronts. With the country’s collapse, Salloukh believes the challenge for the political movements to organize is greater. “Those who want to oppose the system today have to do it while they are organizing at the same time, and much more importantly when the country has already collapsed,” Salloukh said. Many common themes unite the current “alternative parties.” All are calling for the establishment of a civil state, the rule of law, the upholding of democracy and social justice. The lack of distinct ideologies expressed across the spectrum of these new political groups makes it difficult for the populous to separate them and decide which one to vote for. It begs the question: Are the large number of parties justified? “Because we are youth-oriented and youth-led groups, we don’t really believe in having a fixed ideology. We are a post-ideological centrist group,” Samer Makarem, co-founder of Minteshreen, said.
Many of the groups understand their predicament and have started to group themselves into coalitions to expand cooperation and challenge the long-standing regime. This year, an alliance called April 13 was announced, comprising Minteshreen, Beirut Madinati and the National Bloc. These parties call themselves “centrist.”
Difference in approach
While elections are a means to try and achieve change in crisis-stricken Lebanon, they are not the only opportunity for the opposition to achieve a system overhaul. Mouwatinoun wa Mouwatinat Fi Dawla (MMFD), translated to “Citizens in a State,” established in 2016, wants to force change upon the ruling class.“Our aim is for there to be a different type of legitimacy. We want to force a peaceful transition on the ruling class,” Mounir Doumani, a member of MMFD, said. He explained that the opposition forcing this transition should have a strong political platform which he said was absent in many opposition parties operating today.“Until now, the alternative parties and groups have not unfortunately produced political agendas … these are electoral agendas,” he suggested.
With a political class clinging onto power at any cost, illustrated by the country’s dire economic situation and exacerbated with almost a year of political deadlock, it is unclear whether a real change will materialize. Doumani said that the moment of “rupture” is when the current system loses the tools that permitted it to thrive and persevere for the last three decades. “When they lose these tools, there is an exceptional opportunity for a negotiation to be forced on this regime to lead the country toward a different system,” he said. Doumani said that MMFD was ready to take the reins if this opportunity arises, but the group has not taken a stance on parliamentary elections. “It will at some point become apparent if these elections contribute to the transition of power or not and if they will lead to the construction of a new system,” he said, adding that only then would MMFD decide if they will run for elections or not.
Small wins lead to big gains
Most opposition parties believe in the parliamentary elections as a key tool for change, or at least the beginning of what could be a long and arduous road to alternative governance. “My main critique for those who believe elections are the way [to achieve change] is that what they end up doing [if they win a small number of seats] is legitimizing the political class that created the mess we are in,” Salloukh said. Myriam Sayah, a member of the National Bloc, argued that “Opposition from the inside is more effective than opposition from the outside. Change takes time. Parliament change will not come in one night,” she added.
Haytayan is optimistic about the outcome of the elections, underlining that the conditions are drastically different from the 2018 elections because the political elite’s unfulfilled promises made it easier to incentivize people to vote. “In 2018, there was CEDRE, it came one month before the elections, and it saved them [political elite] because they convinced the people that it would help the economy ... however, in 2022, this won’t happen. No one in the international community has trust in this political class anymore,” she said. In 2018 the international community pledged more than $11 billion in soft loans and grants to Lebanon, but they were contingent on reforms the politicians in power had to implement. Three years later, the funds remain locked as politicians have been unwilling to undertake any reforms, which are also pre-requisites for an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout.Many predict that the opposition parties currently organizing will not achieve a breakthrough next year and will gain only a few seats. “That is a very pessimistic reading of the situation. At the end of the day, we have the Lebanese people, who, after everything they are going through, will make the right choice which is voting against this system,” Haytayan said. “It will be interesting to see if the same people will still vote for their leaders,” Salloukh said.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 12-13/2021
Pope Francis to spend few more days in hospital after operation
AFP/July 12/2021
Pope Francis will spend a few more days in hospital following his colon surgery, the Vatican said Monday, adding that the football-mad pontiff was cheered by Argentina and Italy's weekend victories. Francis will "remain hospitalised for a few more days in order to optimise the medical and rehabilitation therapy," spokesman Matteo Bruni said. The 84-year old underwent planned surgery for inflammation of the colon on July 4. The following day, the Vatican said he was expected to stay at least seven days at Rome's Gemelli University Hospital. It was not clear if Francis, who loves football but goes to bed early, stayed up to watch the European championship final between Italy and England, which his adopted homeland won on penalties. But he likely heard the celebratory fireworks and raucous beeps from cars and scooters across Rome. The Argentine pope has spent much of his recovery period pacing the hospital's corridors. His mood is likely to have been lifted Saturday by Argentina's win over hosts Brazil in the Copa America final. Francis was "sharing the joy for the victory of the Argentine and Italian national teams with the people close to him", Bruni said. And in doing so he had "dwelt on the meaning of sport and its values, and on the sporting ability to accept any result, even defeat", he said. "Only in this way, in the face of life's difficulties, is it possible to always put yourself out there, fighting without giving up, with hope and trust," Francis was quoted as saying. On Sunday, the pope greeted well wishers from his balcony on the hospital's 10th floor, where he delivered the Angelus prayer, thanking them for their support "from the bottom of my heart".He had earlier visited children in the nearby cancer ward, some of whom then went with him to the balcony and stood by him, Bruni said. He was photographed Sunday looking cheerful in a wheelchair as he greeted staff and a fellow patient. Francis is in the same suite used by Pope John Paul II -- who also lead the Angelus prayer from there -- and has celebrated mass in the apartment's private chapel with those looking after him. The pontiff temporarily ran a fever last week after his operation for "severe diverticular stenosis with signs of sclerosing diverticulitis".But a chest and abdomen scan and other tests revealed no particular abnormalities. Diverticula are small bulges or pockets that develop in the lining of the intestine. Diverticulitis occurs when they become inflamed or infected.
Sclerosis is normally defined as a hardening of tissue.

Opposition meeting shows Iran’s degree of isolation in the West
The Arab Weekly/July 12/2021
LONDON/ TEHRAN - The Iranian government has expressed anger over the appearance of senior European and US politicians at a rally in support of an opposition group that has long sought to overthrow Iran’s theocratic rulers. Tehran seemed surprised by the sharp remarks of Western politicians and the degree of isolation it faces in Europe and the US, especially after the election of its new president, Ebrahim Raisi. The People’s Mujahedin (Mujahedeen-e-Khalq – MEK)’s political wing, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), on Saturday. The event linked thousands of members of the People’s Mujahedin Organisation of Iran at their camp in Albania with supporters across the world online including US senators, British MPs and French lawmakers as well as protests in cities including Berlin. Iran denounced Sunday what it labelled “baseless accusations” made by Slovenia’s Premier Janez Jansa at the event hosted by the National Council of Resistance of Iran. The foreign ministry charged that Jansa’s participation at a meeting Saturday of the exiled MEK was “unacceptable and undiplomatic”. It said it had summoned Slovenia’s ambassador to Tehran, Kristina Radej, to express its “strong protest” to the country that has since July 1 held the European Union’s rotating six-month presidency. Jansa told the meeting in an online message that the “Iranian people deserve democracy, freedom and human rights and should be firmly supported by the international community”. He also demanded that the “Iranian regime must be held accountable for human rights violations”. The Slovenian prime minister said he backed calls for justice for “the families of the 30,000 political prisoners who perished” during what he termed the “horrible 1988 massacre”. He urged the United Nations to “shed light” on the mass executions of detainees at the end of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, when MEK fighters launched an offensive against the Islamic Republic from Iraqi soil. “This is especially important in light of the fact that the regime’s next president will be Ebrahim Raisi, who is accused by Amnesty International of crimes against humanity for his role in the massacre,” he said. MEK is considered a terror organisation by Iran and was once designated as such by the United States until it was delisted in 2012. The EU removed the group from its terrorism list in 2009.
US contingent
Hundreds of people had rallied Saturday in front of Berlin’s iconic Brandenburg Gate, while speakers including former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Democratic strategist Donna Brazile and numerous serving US senators from across the aisle lauded the NRCI and its aims. Pompeo, who defended the Trump administration’s hard-line stance against Iran over its nuclear programme, claimed in his video address that the Iranian government was “at its most precarious state” since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and called for sustained pressure on Tehran. The former top US diplomat also compared Iran’s newly elected president, Ebrahim Raisi, to a “mass murderer” for his role in the execution of thousands of Iranian political prisoners in 1988. “The United States should take the lead to hold him accountable for the crimes against humanity that he committed,” said Pompeo, adding that the US government should tell allies in Europe and Asia if they deal with Raisi, “the United States will hold them accountable as well.”Pompeo praised the NRCI, whose funding is unclear and which has in the past paid foreign politicians to appear at its rallies, urging the group to “keep up the fight.”“May your mission be blessed and protected, may the Iranian people be blessed,” said the Republican, who has refused to rule out running in the 2024 US presidential election. Pompeo’s support for the group was echoed by Brazile, who praised the “remarkable courage and leadership” of the NRCI’s president, Maryam Rajavi. Also speaking during the event were Democratic senators Bob Menendez and Cory Booker, and Republican senators Roy Blunt and Ted Cruz, the former UK House of Commons Speaker John Bercow, former Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini, former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and others. Iran slammed Western politicians taking part in the event, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh accusing them of “(selling) themselves cheap for a Europe-hosted circus arranged by a once Saddam-backed terrorist cult with Iranian blood on its hands.”

Jordan ex-officials sentenced to 15 years in jail over ‘coup plot’
The Arab Weekly/July 12/2021
AMMAN – A Jordanian court on Monday sentenced two former officials to 15 years in jail after finding them guilty of a coup plot that sparked a rare crisis in a kingdom seen as a pillar of stability in the region. Former royal court chief Bassem Awadallah and an ex-envoy to Saudi Arabia, Sharif Hassan bin Zaid, had been convicted of conspiring to topple King Abdullah II in favour of his half-brother Prince Hamzah. The former crown prince himself was not charged in the trial, but the charge sheet said he was “determined to fulfil his personal ambition to rule, in violation of the Hashemite constitution and customs”. The trial took place behind closed doors at the State Security Court, a military tribunal that also includes civilian judges. But on Monday, journalists were allowed to watch footage of the ruling via video link from a tent set up outside the court. Delivering the ruling, Judge Muwaffaq al-Masaid noted that the men had been friends for 20 years and were close to Prince Hamzah. He said they had tried to put into action “ideas that are hostile to the existing political system in the kingdom and his majesty King Abdullah”. The men had tried “to create chaos, sedition and divisions within Jordanian society and spread hateful discourse towards the political system, threatening the safety and security” of the kingdom, he said. Awadallah and Bin Zaid, who both have close ties to neighbouring Saudi Arabia, were found guilty of “incitement against the ruling system” and “acts that could threaten society and create sedition.”Awadallah, who holds Saudi nationality, had been on trial alongside Bin Zaid, a relative of King Abdullah, since June 21. Images released by authorities showed the two men, wearing light blue prison uniforms, being escorted in handcuffs into the court, under heavy guard. Their lawyers did not comment on the ruling apart from saying they would appeal.
Unprecedented palace crisis
Bin Zaid was also found guilty on two drug charges which would have carried prison terms, but the court did not extend his incarceration.
Regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia has fervently denied any involvement in the alleged plot. The unprecedented palace crisis erupted in April. Eighteen suspects were arrested after authorities announced they had foiled a bid to destabilise the pro-Western kingdom, but 16 were later released. A former crown prince who was sidelined as heir to the throne by the king in 2004, Hamzah accused Jordan’s rulers of corruption and ineptitude in a video message posted by the BBC on April 3. He said the same day that he had been put under house arrest. Authorities later said he would not stand trial, as his case had been resolved within the royal family, with Hamzah pledging allegiance to Abdullah. The king appointed Hamzah as crown prince in 1999, at the request of his late father, but removed him from the post in 2004, later naming his son, Prince Hussein, as next in line to the throne.
Closed-door trial
The court had rejected a defence request to summon three princes along with Prime Minister Bisher al-Khasawneh and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi as witnesses, calling it “unproductive.” The trial was held behind closed doors in the capital Amman.
Bin Zaid’s lawyer said ahead of the verdict that the defence team had asked the court to “find both our clients innocent of the charges against them”. US-educated Awadallah was long considered a contentious and divisive figure in Jordan, having served as finance and planning minister before becoming royal court chief in 2007. He played a key role pushing for economic reforms, before he resigned in 2008 amid criticism over alleged interference in sensitive political and economic issues. He rose to become an influential figure familiar with the inner workings of the Saudi leadership, and often appeared alongside Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz. Following the crisis, King Abdullah appointed Samir al-Rifai, a former prime minister, to oversee plans to “modernise” the country’s political system. The initiative aims to offer Jordanians “a political life that suits them,” Rifai said in June.

EU Seeks Israel 'Fresh Start' as Minister Visits
Agence France Presse/July 12/2021
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Monday the bloc was hoping for a fresh start with Israel's new government, as Foreign Minister Yair Lapid held talks in Brussels. "It's important that the new Israeli government comes here to Brussels -- it is an opportunity for a fresh start," Borrell said after meeting Lapid.  "I think it's a good opportunity for us to restart our relations, which in the past were quite deteriorated." German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas described the visit as a "good sign" and said the bloc was looking to resume meetings of the EU-Israel Association Council -- last held in almost a decade ago -- designed to improve ties between the two sides. Lapid was to meet all EU 27 foreign ministers for joint talks. The EU is eyeing greater cooperation with Israel after a disparate coalition -- masterminded by centrist Lapid -- came together last month to oust veteran right-wing leader Benjamin Netanyahu. Relations were tense between Brussels and Netanyahu, who pushed to sideline the EU as a player in the volatile region. But thorny issues remain as the EU is pushing for a resumption of the search for a two-state solution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, and seeking to broker the return of the United States to the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran.

Cuba Accuses U.S. of Seeking 'Social Unrest' after Rare Protests
Agence France Presse/July 12/2021
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel on Monday blamed the United States of pursuing a "policy of economic suffocation to provoke social unrest in the country" where unprecedented anti-government protests broke out the day before.
In a live television broadcast, Diaz-Canel said his government had tried to "confront and overcome" numerous difficulties caused by decades of U.S. sanctions against the communist island.

Suez Canal nets Egypt record revenue of $5.84 billion
The Arab Weekly/July 12/2021
CAIRO – Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue rose to a record $5.84 billion in its 2020-21 financial year (July-June), up from $5.72 billion in the previous year, the Suez Canal Authority said on Sunday. The authority also said the canal’s revenues in the first six months of this year increased to about $3 billion compared with $2.76 billion in the same period last year, despite the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on world trade plus a six-day blockage by a giant cargo ship. The Ever Given blocked the canal for six days in March and disrupted world trade. It was allowed to leave the canal earlier this month after the authority reached a settlement with its owner and insurers. A lawsuit filed by the authority for compensation before an Egyptian court was called off on Sunday after the settlement, judicial sources said. “Despite various challenges, revenues from the canal rose sharply” in the fiscal year ending June 30, said Osama Rabie, head of the Suez Canal Authority chief (SCA). Authorities netted “the highest revenues in the history of the canal, hitting $5.84 billion”, over two percent up from the previous year, he said in a statement. Rabie said the SCA’s “marketing and flexible pricing policies (had) helped maintain a good rate of traffic through the canal and earned the trust of our partners.” But the period was far from plain sailing. The number of ships that passed through the Suez Canal increased in the first half of 2021 to 9,763 vessels compared with 9,546 ships during the same period last year, the canal authority said. About 15% of world shipping traffic travels through the Suez Canal, the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia. It is an important source of foreign currency for Egypt. In the wake of the Ever Given’s grounding, the canal authority has accelerated a plan to widen and deepen the southernmost section of the canal, where the grounding took place and to extend a second lane further north that was built in a 2015 expansion.

Egypt’s top diplomat meets Israeli counterpart in Brussels
The Arab Weekly/July 12/2021
CAIRO – Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry met his Israeli counterpart Yair Lapid in Brussels on Sunday for the first time since Israel’s new cross-party coalition took office last month. Shoukry stressed “the need to resolve the current stalemate between the Palestinian and Israeli sides, leading to just and comprehensive peace negotiations,” Egypt’s foreign ministry spokesperson said on Twitter. The hour-long meeting took place on the sidelines of the European Union Foreign Affairs Council meeting. The two diplomats discussed Israel-Palestinian relations, with Lapid stressing the issue of Israeli prisoners in Gaza. Since Israel’s 2014 invasion of the Gaza Strip, the Islamist group has held the bodies of Israeli soldiers Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin, although Hamas has never confirmed their deaths. Hamas is also believed to be holding two Israeli citizens who entered Gaza alone and whose families say they have mental health issues. Israel is meanwhile holding more than 5,000 Palestinians in its jails. Hamas had earlier said it was open to “indirect and rapid” negotiations on a prisoner exchange following a bloody military escalation with Israel in May.
The Israeli foreign minister’s meeting with Shoukry came six weeks after Lapid’s predecessor, Gabi Ashkenazi, was in Cairo for the first visit by an Israeli foreign minister in 13 years. Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and new Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also spoke on the phone last month and agreed to meet. Egypt has been working to solidify the ceasefire it brokered between Israel and Hamas which went into effect on May 21, after 11 days of Palestinian militant rocket fire and Israeli air strikes. The latest conflict erupted on May 10 when Hamas sent volleys of rockets towards Israel in solidarity with hundreds of Palestinians injured in clashes with Israeli security forces inside Al-Aqsa mosque compound. From May 10 to May 21 the Gaza Strip suffered extensive damage, and international aid has started to pour in.
Egypt and Qatar each pledged $500 million (about 410 million Euros) for reconstruction.

New Spanish FM faces the challenge of winning Morocco’s trust
The Arab Weekly/July 12/2021
RABAT – Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced Saturday the dismissal of Foreign Minister Arancha Gonzalez Laya in a move that analysts see as a consequence of the recent diplomatic crisis between Madrid and Rabat that erupted on her watch.
Diplomatic sources told The Arab Weekly that the choice of former ambassador to Paris, Jose Manuel Albares, as new Spanish minister for Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation, could be a bet by Madrid on persuading the French to move quickly to help broker a resolution in the crisis with Morocco. The same sources speculate about the possibility of a French role to ease the task of the new foreign minister, even if indirectly. Albares is seen as a seasoned diplomat who is well acquainted with the issues, besides also being close to decision-makers at the Elysee Palace. Moreover, he is reputed to be knowledgeable about Morocco’s positions and its role in the Mediterranean region. The Spanish press depicts the new foreign minister as a seasoned diplomat who will use all his experience and diplomatic skills to try to rebuild trust between his country and Morocco. Prime minister Sanchez expects a lot from his new foreign minister and adviser, who has held several senior positions in the past, including Director General for Africa (acting), Deputy Director General for Sub-Saharan Africa and Head of the Cooperation Department at the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID). Arancha González Laya was held responsible for the continuation of the crisis with Morocco. It was not only opposition politicians who were highly critical of her failed management of the rift between Rabat and Madrid. Professor of international law Reda el-Fallah told The Arab Weekly, “We must separate the personal responsibility from the governmental responsibility in the mismanagement of the diplomatic crisis with Morocco.” He added that, “her dismissal constitutes an official acknowledgment by the Spanish side that the decisions that sparked Rabat’s firm reactions were not compatible with the constants of the Spanish state’s foreign policy towards its southern neighbour.”Shortly before she was fired Arancha González Laya insisted “the position of the current coalition government on the Sahara issue has not changed, and it will not change in the future.” She stressed that “the policy of the Spanish government is based on indivisible principles, such as the defence of pluralism and respect for international legitimacy.” Fallah believes that, “if we consider the Spanish foreign decision-making, especially when we face decisions reflecting such a high degree of hostility, these decisions cannot be shaped by the ministry of foreign affairs alone, but involve instead multiple agencies and actors.”He added that, “the dismissal thus becomes a camouflage tactic by the Spanish state, after Moroccan diplomacy demonstrated its ability to stand up to forms of hostile behaviour from Madrid as well as identify and denounce its practices.”
The diplomatic rift between Madrid and Rabat was exacerbated by the admission of the leader of the Polisario Front, Ibrahim Ghali, on Spanish territory for medical treatment, while using a false passport. The Spanish Air Force acknowledged that it did not seek to examine the passport of the leader of the Polisario Front at the Zaragoza base, because the clearance for Ghali came from the ministry of foreign affairs, according to an official letter sent to the Spanish judiciary. In the view of Spain watchers, Arancha González Laya’s attitude during the affair was to spread responsibility across the cabinet and state institutions for Ghali’s admission to Spain with a fake identity. This could be considered a criminal offence with a list of suspects and accomplices. It is expected that the task of the new foreign minister will be difficult and complicated. It will not be easy to correct the catastrophic mistakes of the Spanish government and restore the lost confidence in it and the judiciary, as well as change gear at the foreign ministry in order to deal with the many pressing issues facing Spain, especially its rift with Morocco.

Russia warns against 'outside Interference' after Cuba protests
AFP/July 12/2021
Russia on Monday warned against any "outside interference" in Cuba after thousands took part in rare protests against the Communist government on the island nation. "We consider it unacceptable for there to be outside interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state or any destructive actions that would encourage the destabilization of the situation on the island," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement. "We are closely following the development of the situation in and around Cuba," Zakharova said.-

US Warns Cuba Against Targeting Protesters
AFP/July 12/2021
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Sunday warned Cuba over any targeting of the people joining rare protests that erupted against the island's communist government."The US supports freedom of expression and assembly across Cuba, and would strongly condemn any violence or targeting of peaceful protesters who are exercising their universal rights," he said on Twitter.

Yellen urges EU to back global tax deal, keep fiscal support
Reuters/July 12/2021
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged European Union countries on Monday to sign on to a global deal to revamp corporate taxation, keep fiscal support through 2022 and consider more spending in the face of COVID-19 uncertainty. “We need sustainable sources of revenue that do not rely on further taxing workers’ wages and exacerbating the economic disparities that we are all committed to reducing,” Yellen said in remarks prepared for delivery to Eurogroup finance ministers. “We need to put an end to corporations shifting capital income to low tax jurisdictions, and to accounting gimmicks that allow them to avoid paying their fair share.” --

Israeli demolition of Bedouin homes in West Bank ‘unlawful and heartless,’ says UN expert
Arab News/July 12/2021
NEW YORK: An independent UN human rights expert has condemned the “unlawful and heartless” actions of Israeli authorities in repeatedly demolishing homes belonging to the Palestinian Bedouin community of Humsa Al-Baqai’a, in the occupied West Bank.
Michael Lynk, the UN’s special rapporteur on the human rights situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, called on the Jewish state to “immediately halt its property demolitions” there, return to full compliance with international humanitarian and human-rights obligations, and “provide protection for, rather than displacement of, the protected population.”He urged the international community “to take meaningful accountability measures to ensure that Israel complies with its legal obligations.”
Noting that “criticism without consequences has rarely reversed illegal Israeli conduct in the past,” he added that “accountability has to rise to the top of the international community’s agenda. Only by imposing an escalating cost to Israel’s illegal occupation will there be the prospect that these injustices will end.”
Special rapporteurs are independent experts who serve in individual capacities, and on a voluntary basis, at the UN’s Human Rights Council. They are not members of UN staff and are not paid for their work. Israeli forces demolished properties in the Palestinian Bedouin community of Humsa Al-Baqai’a in the Jordan Valley on July 7. The destroyed buildings included makeshift homes and farming facilities provided by the international community, including the EU, which has helped residents rebuild after previous demolitions. It was the seventh time the village has been demolished since November 2020, when it was razed by the Israeli military. In addition to more than 70 shelters and farming structures — rebuilt by the international community after the first demolition — the latest round of demolitions also targeted 11 households. About 70 residents, including 35 children, were left without shelter in the sweltering heat, and their belongings, including food, water and clothing, were confiscated. Under the Oslo Accords, the Jordan Valley, which makes up about 60 percent of the occupied West Bank, is classified as “Area C,” which means it is completely under Israeli military and civil control. Humsa Al-Baqai’a is mostly in an area designated as a “firing zone” for Israeli military training, and residency or access by Palestinians is prohibited. Lynk warned of a high risk of forcible relocation of the Bedouin community from the area, which he said would be “a grave breach and a potential war crime.” “These (herding) communities are extremely vulnerable, both because they have limited access to water, sanitation, education and electrical power, and because the Israeli military has seized large swaths of their traditional lands for military firing zones,” he added. He contrasted the plight of this Palestinian community with “the illegal Israeli settlements in the Jordan Valley (which) are left undisturbed by the military. “This progressive seizure of Palestinian lands, together with the protection of the settlements, is a further consolidation of Israel’s de facto annexation of the West Bank,” Lynk said. Since the start of this year, according to UN figures, Israel has destroyed at least 421 Palestinian-owned properties across the West Bank, displacing 592 people, including 320 children.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials published on July 12-13/2021
Iran regime refocusing on nuclear weapons goal
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/July 12/2021
د. ماجد رفي زاده: النظام الإيراني يعيد التركيز على هدف الأسلحة النووية
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/100583/dr-majid-rafizadeh-iran-regime-refocusing-on-nuclear-weapons-goal-%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%af-%d8%b1%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%87-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d8%b8%d8%a7%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84/
The Iranian regime appears to be trapped between two choices: Having the US sanctions against its political establishment and senior government officials lifted or pursuing its nuclear ambitions.
The economy of the Islamic Republic has spiraled into recession, putting significant pressure on the population. Inflation has greatly lowered ordinary people’s purchasing power. It is estimated that the real inflation rate in Iran is hovering at about 70 percent. The state-controlled newspaper Jahan-e Sanat last week reported: “A study of changes in the consumer price index over the years and the recording of inflation rates above 30 percent tells us that households in the country lose an average of 20 percent of their purchasing power every year. The latest estimates from the Statistics Center show that the average inflation rate at the end of June reached 43 percent.” It added: “Ehsan Soltani is one of the experts who believe that the real inflation rate in June was 71 percent, and this rate has been calculated by realizing the announced statistics and adapting it to the market realities.”
In addition, the ruling mullahs are facing one of the worst budget deficits in their four-decade history of being in power. Tehran was last year running a $200 million weekly budget deficit. Over the last three years, the value of Iran’s national currency, the rial, has dropped to historic lows. One US dollar, which equaled about 35,000 rials in November 2018, now buys nearly 250,000. Sima, who works as a clerk for Iran’s Bank Pasargad, stated: “Salaries have remained the same in the last few years while prices of basic necessities such as food, transportation, rent and medicine have more than doubled.”
Iran’s militia groups are also receiving less funding. This shortfall may be why, for the first time in more than three decades, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2019 made a public statement asking people to donate money to his group. He said: “The sanctions and terror lists are a form of warfare against the resistance and we must deal with them as such. I announce today that we are in need of the support of our popular base. It is the responsibility of the Lebanese resistance, its popular base, its milieu (to battle these measures).”
Obtaining nuclear weapons may have become more important due to recent political changes in the country.
As a result, the Iranian regime undoubtedly wants the sanctions lifted. But why has it not yet taken the first step toward rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, which would see the sanctions removed? Why have the negotiations in Geneva dragged on for six rounds of talks without result? The answer could lie in the idea that the regime might have changed its political calculations and priorities because pursuing its nuclear ambitions has become more important than improving the nation’s economy and people’s living standards, as is the case with Iran’s ally, North Korea.
The regime has been increasing its violations of the nuclear deal, even during the Geneva talks. It has now begun the process of producing enriched uranium metal. UN nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency last week warned: “Today, Iran informed the Agency that UO2 (uranium oxide) enriched up to 20 percent U-235 would be shipped to the R&D laboratory at the Fuel Fabrication Plant in Esfahan, where it would be converted to UF4 (uranium tetrafluoride) and then to uranium metal enriched to 20 percent U-235, before using it to manufacture the fuel.”
While the Iranian leaders claim that the country’s nuclear program is designed for civilian purposes, such as developing fuel for research reactors, the production of enriched uranium metal is a crucial step toward acquiring nuclear weapons. A joint statement issued by the UK, France and Germany acknowledged the fact that the Iranian regime “has no credible civilian need for uranium metal R&D and production, which are a key step in the development of a nuclear weapon.”
Tehran’s nuclear file is filled with clandestine nuclear sites and activities, suggesting that the theocratic establishment has long wanted to acquire nuclear weapons. While the regime prioritized its economy in 2015 by signing the JCPOA and agreeing to curb its nuclear program, obtaining nuclear weapons may have become more important due to recent political changes in the country.
The regime is aware that it is facing significant opposition. The nationwide protests in the winter of 2017-2018 and in November 2019 indicate the people’s discontent with the Islamic Republic, as well as their desire for change. Chants such as “Death to Khamenei” and “Death to the Islamic Republic” have become the norm during protests. A revolution seems to be simmering under the surface.
If another uprising erupts and foreign powers interfere, the regime could lose its grip on power. But if the regime were to acquire nuclear weapons like North Korea, it would ensure its stability because they would act as a major deterrent against foreign interference. It would also empower the regime, impose fear in Iranian society and make it easier for the regime to suppress dissent and assert its hegemonic ambitions in the Middle East.
In a nutshell, it seems that the focus of the Iranian regime is now on becoming a nuclear state rather than on having sanctions lifted. Acquiring nuclear weapons would be a powerful deterrent that would ensure the survival of the ruling clerics.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.

History repeating itself as Western troops leave Afghanistan
Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/July 12/2021
In 1842, four years after invading in formidable numbers and to great fanfare, an entire British army retreating from Afghanistan to India was massacred. Its worthy Afghan foes, with an eye on history and taunting any would-be invader, allowed one military surgeon, Dr. William Brydon, to survive and tell the tale of how unforgiving Afghanistan is to those who covet it. Today, the withdrawal of US forces has led to the Taliban rapidly increasing its control of the country to 85 percent, including border crossings and key infrastructure. This has raised the question of what exactly two decades of American blood and treasure has achieved. It would seem that, as with the British in the 19th century and the Soviets in 1989, Afghanistan has shown itself to be unconquerable and thoroughly ungovernable.
Only three countries recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan when the US and its allies invaded in 2001. The pseudo state that emerged from the chaos of the Soviet withdrawal married a specifically Pashtun Afghan nationalism with radical beliefs. The movie theaters of Kabul gave way to public stoning and, amid the administrative vacuum, Afghan territory became a haven for terrorists.
However, the link between the 9/11 hijackers and the dismantling of the Taliban remains tenuous; if anything, it has become clear that real tensions existed between them and Al-Qaeda. It is, therefore, helpful to be reminded of the legal basis for the Afghanistan war. Almost 20 years ago, the US Congress passed the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Terrorists bill and, shortly after, the UN Security Council authorized the creation of an International Security Assistance Force to “reaffirm its strong commitment to the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and national unity of Afghanistan.” Some $2.3 trillion later and international forces are hurriedly leaving the troubled country months early, while the Taliban is stronger than it could possibly have hoped to be.
America’s two decades bogged down in the Afghan quagmire has taken a significant toll, with some 2,300 US troops killed and 20,600 injured. These figures are, however, dwarfed by the overall total of 241,000 dead, of which more than 71,000 were civilians. The human cost of the conflict has been consistently cited, considering the difference to Afghan lives the operation was supposed to have made.
The vast majority of the money spent in Afghanistan has been on counterinsurgency operations and reconstruction. Roughly half has been spent on building up the Afghan National Army and Police, with a further $36 billion going on local governance and development. According to President Barack Obama in 2012, when he ordered a surge in personnel, America’s job was to “build a partnership with the Afghan people… one that ensures that we will be able to continue targeting terrorists and supporting a sovereign Afghan government.”
The situation today, however, couldn’t be starker. With the withdrawal of international forces not even complete, the much-touted Afghan security personnel have been fleeing in their hundreds across the borders into neighboring Iran and Tajikistan. Worse still, others have reintegrated into the Taliban. Under the circumstances, US President Joe Biden’s remarks last week that, “We did not go to Afghanistan to nation-build. And it’s the right and the responsibility of the Afghan people alone to decide their future and how they want to run their country,” smacks of an admission of defeat.
The Afghan authorities have never seemed more vulnerable and reliant upon American support.
The fighting that has broken out between Afghan security forces and the Taliban is not what policymakers had planned for, but in many respects it is what they have learnt to expect. With Taliban delegations already traveling overseas to represent themselves as the de facto government, the Afghan authorities have never seemed more vulnerable and reliant upon American support. As Taliban commanders last week proudly displayed the scores of weapons they had seized from the Sultan Khil military base, it can only be imagined what other state resources will fall into the wrong hands, plunging Afghanistan into greater turmoil. The admission by NATO, whose Resolute Support Mission (RSM) has been propping up the security forces, that “there is no military solution to the challenges Afghanistan faces” was telling. Though the Taliban may have been quick to fill the vacuum, its gains do not reflect any ability to be able to govern the territory it has taken. In 2001, it struggled to extend its writ over Afghanistan’s myriad different groups. Today, with an emergent China and re-emergent Russia, any number of local warlords will soon be able to court foreign support to entrench themselves and tip Afghanistan further toward the civil war scenario to which it has become accustomed.
Aside from cosmetic changes to Afghan society, a legacy of suffering, waste, fraud and abuse is what is left of America’s “forever war.” The Armiger Group’s Henry Jones-Davies, a security practitioner with years of experience in Afghanistan, underscored the futility of international efforts when he said: “The idea that we could impose a Western-style democratic system on a country with so many different ethnic and religious groups and tradition was incredibly short-sighted. The resurgence of the Taliban is reflective of a reaction to the imposition of foreign systems of governance.”
As Afghanistan lurches toward 50 years of instability and conflict, how the Taliban is able to mitigate the country’s many complexities remains to be seen. The withdrawing forces would have done well to heed the warnings of the 1842 campaign.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator, and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Twitter: @Moulay_Zaid

Iran’s middle class marginalized by regime
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/July 12/2021
The Iranian middle class played a major role in ensuring the success of the 1979 revolution, showing solidarity with the rest of Iranian society and contributing to the movement to oust the shah’s regime and agitate the educated class — including professors, university students and members of the intellectual elite — to action.
The mercantile class and shop owners also contributed to the overthrow of the shah’s regime through funding demonstrators and revolutionary clerics. In addition, on more than one occasion, members of Iran’s business class announced their role in organizing general strikes that paralyzed commercial and public life in the country, putting tremendous pressure on the regime. This, along with other factors, ultimately contributed to the toppling of the shah.
After the revolution, the new Islamic Republic regime quickly comprehended the power of the middle class and the potential threat it could pose to its survival, especially in light of its failure to fulfill its numerous pledges made before and during the revolutionary period.
Spurred by this comprehension, the post-revolutionary regime systematically worked to undermine and disempower the middle class. The regime’s certainty about the need to eradicate the middle class to ensure its own survival increased after the events that followed the disputed 2009 presidential election, in which the incumbent hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a second term at the expense of candidates affiliated with the Green Movement, such as Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Both have remained under house arrest ever since.
The Green Movement succeeded in winning over the middle class, with shop owners and traders organizing a sizable general strike, most significantly in Tehran’s historic Grand Bazaar. In addition, they organized demonstrations and rallies in which thousands of protesters loudly condemned the results of the 2009 election, which they and other observers believe to have been “rigged.”
To counter the power of the middle class, the revolutionary regime worked to establish a new loyal political elite and certain bodies that would safeguard its interests and fight to ensure its survival. For example, it created the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which effectively controls Iran’s economy and economic resources, along with the Basij, and positioned certain credible and powerful figures close to the supreme leader. However, beyond this privileged political elite, the regime still targeted rich and influential figures, cracking down hard on them. The economic hardships endured by Iranians since 2009, especially due to the severe collapse in the value of the Iranian currency, led to the erosion of the middle class on an unprecedented scale.
Over the past six years, most of those who were considered to be among the middle class have increasingly fallen into poverty, with many factories and businesses shutting down and many people being laid off. This has put more pressure on members of the middle class economically and socially, leading them to lose their former power and influence on the Iranian street. Among the signs of the decline and demise of Iran’s middle class is the fact that more than 90 percent of Iran’s population have applied for the government’s meager assistance payments in recent years. This put the regime in an awkward position, leading it to remove wealthy claimants from its list of recipients.
Those following Iranian affairs have also observed a steep decline in the average annual household income for city dwellers. This has fallen to $2,571 per year ($214 per month), according to the black market dollar exchange rate, forcing many among the middle class to change their lifestyles. Some, especially in the capital Tehran, have seriously considered selling their homes in the better-off areas to move to more impoverished neighborhoods, such as those in south Tehran, simply to survive.
Moreover, the collapse of the Iranian currency’s value and the resulting increase in burdens facing the business class have led many of them to cut corners on quality and commit commercial fraud at restaurants, markets and other places due to their inability to increase prices at rates commensurate with the new rising costs, while still being able to attract customers. Businesspeople and shop owners are well aware that the vast majority of their fellow citizens can no longer afford to pay for non-essential merchandise, especially imported items, due to their soaring prices. Consumers, meanwhile, have become increasingly adept at at-home repairs and recycling their existing possessions, such as electronic devices and clothes, despite their poor quality — a move that has led to the economic recession intensifying in some commercial sectors in the country.
All this adds to the woes of the middle class, who feel that successive governments under the theocratic regime have exacerbated and deepened their suffering.
Some businessmen have called on the government to release the funds owed to them in order to implement a number of state-controlled projects. However, the massive deficit in the Iranian budget and the lack of will from the regime to cover its debts mean these arrears are unlikely ever to be repaid. The regime is effectively leaving these businessmen high and dry, leading them to declare bankruptcy without recourse to any state body that could help them reclaim their losses. Moreover, the current government’s refusal to commit itself to addressing or resolving the consequences of the economically disastrous policies first introduced under Ahmadinejad is also causing tensions, especially in light of the emergence of major embezzlement scandals involving the former president’s aides and close officials.
The post-revolutionary regime systematically worked to undermine and disempower the middle class.
The harsh impact of sanctions and the collapse of the Iranian currency’s value led many citizens to pin their hopes on the dream of Iran’s regime and the P5+1 international powers reaching a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. This hope explains the displays of delight expressed by the Iranian people in 2015 after the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). They believed the JCPOA would lead to an improvement in their living conditions and breathe life into their ailing business activities, compensating them for some of the massive losses they had incurred in previous years and restoring part of their role in Iran’s social and political life. This was not, as the regime claimed, a spontaneous outbreak of celebration in the hope of seeing Iran possess nuclear weapons, but simply the Iranian people expressing their hope for an improved economy and society.
Six years after the signing of the JCPOA — and in the wake of the subsequent turbulent political and economic consequences of this both domestically and regionally — the Iranian people find themselves living in even more miserable conditions than those they endured before the signing of the agreement, in light of deteriorating economic conditions and the regime’s focus on parroting empty, hollow slogans that will not feed the hungry, heal the sick or contribute to improving the socioeconomic conditions. Perhaps the latest clear demonstration of this are the recurrent power outages afflicting the country in the searing summer heat, over which the government has taken no action, while the leaders make their customary fiery but empty speeches about “resistance.”
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is President of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

Audio from FDD: The UN System: What Went Wrong and What Should Be Done
Clifford D. May/Richard Goldberg/Morgan Lorraine Viña/July 12/2021
https://www.fdd.org/podcasts/2021/07/09/the-un-system-what-went-wrong-and-what-should-be-done/
About
The U.N. and other international organizations were designed to give structure to what we like to call the “international community” – establishing and expressing what we like to call “international laws” and “international norms.”
Over recent years, however, authoritarian regimes have been increasingly dominating these entities, and utilizing them for their own, decidedly illiberal ends.
FDD scholars have just published “A Better Blueprint for International Organizations,” a monograph with a foreword by former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley, and contributions from a dozen FDD scholars. They make clear what went wrong and what can – and should – be done to fix this broken, indeed, increasingly corrupt, international system.
To discuss these issues, host Cliff May is joined by Richard Goldberg, a senior advisor to FDD and the monograph’s editor, and Morgan Viña, who served as chief of staff and senior policy advisor to Ambassador Haley and is now an adjunct fellow at FDD.

Taliban squeezes Afghan government by seizing key border towns
Bill Roggio/FDD's Long War Journal/July 12/2021
In addition to militarily taking control of key districts throughout the country, the Taliban is cutting off the key revenue sources to the Afghan government by taking control of important border crossings that serve as dry ports for good shipped overseas. The Taliban now controls three of Afghanistan’s eight dry ports, including two on the border with Iran.
In the past 24 hours, the Taliban took control of the Islam Qala and Turghundi border crossings, both which are in Herat province and border Iran. The Taliban seized the Shirkhan Bander crossing in Kunduz province which borders Uzbekistan two weeks ago, and has maintained control of the crossing.
Afghan forces protecting all three dry ports put up little resistance. In all three instances, the Afghan security forces and customs officials abandoned their posts and fled across the border.
There are eight dry ports in Afghanistan, two of which are inland and located in Kabul City and Mazar-i-Sharif (Hairatan Dry Port). The other three dry ports, Torkham in Nangarhar, Aqeena in Faryab, and Spin Boldak in Kandahar are currently under government control. However, heavy fighting has been reported in Spin Boldak district and the Taliban is slowly advancing on the Spin Boldak crossing.
The dry ports are major sources of revenue for an impoverished Afghan nation. The Islam Qala Dry Port generates an estimated $20 million a month, according to TOLONews.
The security situation has deteriorated rapidly since President Biden announced the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan on April 14, 2021.
Today, Taliban currently controls 204 districts and contests another 124 districts, according to the real time assessment by FDD’s Long War Journal.
Prior to the Taliban’s offensive, which began in earnest on May 1 – upon expiration of the date that the U.S. government originally committed to completing its withdrawal under the Doha Agreement – the Taliban controlled only 73 districts and contested another 210.
Afghan Districts As of May 1, 2021 As of July 5, 2021
Taliban Controlled 73 204
Contested 210 124
Gov’t Controlled 115 70
Data compiled by FDD’s Long War Journal
The Taliban’s strategy of seizing rural districts has not only allowed it to surround major cities and put pressure on population centers, it has also enabled it to squeeze the Afghan government’s revenue from goods crossing the border.
*Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.