English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 28/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news
 

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Bible Quotations For today

I write these things to you who believe in the name of the Son of God, so that you may know that you have eternal life
First Letter of John 05,/13-21/:”I write these things to you who believe in the name of the Son of God, so that you may know that you have eternal life. And this is the boldness we have in him, that if we ask anything according to his will, he hears us. And if we know that he hears us in whatever we ask, we know that we have obtained the requests made of him. If you see your brother or sister committing what is not a mortal sin, you will ask, and God will give life to such a one to those whose sin is not mortal. There is sin that is mortal; I do not say that you should pray about that. All wrongdoing is sin, but there is sin that is not mortal. We know that those who are born of God do not sin, but the one who was born of God protects them, and the evil one does not touch them. We know that we are God’s children, and that the whole world lies under the power of the evil one. And we know that the Son of God has come and has given us understanding so that we may know him who is true; and we are in him who is true, in his Son Jesus Christ. He is the true God and eternal life. Little children, keep yourselves from idols.”
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 27-28/2021

What You Should Know About, Robert Malley, who is likely to be appointed by President Biden as a special American envoy to handle relations and negotiations with Iran?/Elias Bejjani/January 27/2021
Ministry of Health: 3906 new coronavirus cases, 76 deaths
President Aoun commenting on launch of vaccination campaign against Corona: We will spare no effort until vaccine reaches largest segment of Lebanese population
Lebanon Launches Covid-19 Vaccination Plan
Covid-19 vaccination plan launched at Grand Serail
31 Soldiers Injured in Tripoli Clashes, Army Says
Red Cross: Dozens Injured in Lockdown Protests in Lebanon's Tripoli
Military Grenades, Gunfire' in Fresh Round of Clashes in Tripoli
Hariri Says Tripoli Demos May be Politicized but Urges Aid for the Poor
Report: Hariri Likely to Visit Paris as Govt Deadlock Persists
Report: France Still Concerned about Govt Formation in Lebanon
Lebanese Lawyers Seek to Halt Liquidation of UK-Registered Firm Possibly Linked to Beirut Blast
US Ambassador’s Political Tour Revives Lebanon, Israel Border Demarcation Talks
Diab Says Govt. Can't be Formed through Tripoli's 'Burning Tires'
US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
Lebanese-Canadian Academic to be Tried over 1980 Paris Bombing
Lebanese workers thrust into poverty, depression amid COVID-19 lockdown
Amid Crisis, Hizbullah 'Bank' a Lifeline for Some Lebanese
Hezbollah uses financial arms to entrench influence
Hezbollah and the Politics of Vaccine Delays in Lebanon/Hezbollah is profiting from the pandemic/Makram Rabah/Washington Institute/January 27/2021
Reasons behind Hezbollah’s New Campaign against the LAF/Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/January 27/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 27-28/2021

Iran Says Israel Waging 'Psychological War'
Iran Waits For Biden to Make the First Diplomatic Move
Senate confirms Biden confidant Antony Blinken as secretary of state
Israel reopens mission to Morocco after 20 years
U.S. announces restoration of relations with Palestinians
Israeli military chief warns of new plans to strike Iran
Canada/Minister Garneau speaks with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken
Canada/Minister of Foreign Affairs announces Canada’s contribution to the United Nations Peacebuilding Fund
Canada/Statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs on International Holocaust Remembrance Day
Voting on Arab League top position to test Egypt, Qatar ties as uncertainties still envelop relations
Pro-Iran psywar in Iraq aims to shake confidence in Kadhimi
Biden Freezes UAE, Saudi Arms Sales for Review
 

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 27-28/2021

What Zarif’s words should tell President Biden about the JCPOA/Saeed Ghasseminejad/The Hill/January 27/2021
Why “Anything But Trump” Should Not Be Biden’s Foreign Policy Mantra/John Hannah and David Adesnik/The National Interest/January 27/2021
Iran is totally confused on how to approach Biden - analysis/Seith J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/January 27/2021
Growing concern in Israel over appointment of Malley as US rep. to Iran/Herb Keinon/Jerusalem Post/January 27/2021
The real problem with Robert Malley’s potential Iran envoy appointment/Michael Rubin/The washington Examiner/January 27/2021
Germany: Meet Angela Merkel's Second Successor, Armin Laschet/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/January 27/2021
Turkey and Greece: Still More Peace Talks/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/January 27/2021
Even Europe Is Losing Patience with Iran's Nuclear Antics/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/January 27/2021
Israel’s Normalization with Four Muslim Nations: The Good News and the Bad/Raymond Ibrahim/Jewish News Syndicate/January 27/2021
The Syrian Regime’s Perplexed Loyalists: Who Are We?/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 27/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 27-28/2021

What You Should Know About, Robert Malley, who is likely to be appointed by President Biden as a special American envoy to handle relations and negotiations with Iran?
Elias Bejjani/January 27/2021
There are Arab and Israeli serious concerns about the possibility of President Joe Biden appointing Robert Malley as a special American envoy to handle the relations and negotiations with Iran, since this man is very close to the Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Jawad Zarif. He also was the main architects of the nuclear agreement with Iran during the Obama era. He is well known in his support to the Palestinian and Jewish states, and in his advocacy for rapprochement with Hezbollah. Below are Arabic and English articles and reports that give a complete status of his activities, ideas, and political roles, with a detailed overview of his religion, Jewish family, and the positions he filled.

Ministry of Health: 3906 new coronavirus cases, 76 deaths
NNA/January 27/2021
The Ministry of Public Health announced 3906 new coronavirus infection cases, which raises the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 289660.
76 deaths have been recorded over the past 24 hours.

President Aoun commenting on launch of vaccination campaign against Corona: We will spare no effort until vaccine reaches largest segment of Lebanese population
NNA/January 27/2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, commented on the launch of the national campaign for vaccination against the global Corona pandemic, and called on the Lebanese to continue adhering to the required health controls. President Aoun also affirmed that all efforts should be exerted to supply the largest segment of the Lebanese population with the vaccine. The President wrote the following, on Twitter: “With the launch of the national campaign plan for vaccination against Corona, we will spare no effort until the vaccine reaches the largest possible segment of the Lebanese in the shortest period of time, in order to provide effective means of protection against this global epidemic, accompanied by the necessity of continuing adherence to required health controls”. -- Presidency Press Office
 

Lebanon Launches Covid-19 Vaccination Plan
Naharnet/January 27/2021
Lebanon on Wednesday launched its Covid-19 vaccination plan, announcing that it is seeking to inoculate 80% of its residents in 2021. Caretaker Health Minister Hamad Hassan said the plan clarifies the vaccination mechanism, ensures the monitoring of the refrigeration chain, guarantees a transparent and fair access to the vaccine and confronts the possible side effects. Reassuring that “the vaccine that will be endorsed in Lebanon is the most effective, secure and safe according to international scientific standards,” Hassan said the National Committee for the Covid-19 Vaccination has been set up to achieve the aspired goals. “The goal of the plan is to achieve high levels of vaccination in society, which would reach 80% in 2021,” the minister said. He also noted that vaccine will not be obligatory and will be “free of charge even at private centers.” “All residents on Lebanese territory -- be them citizens, displaced Syrians, Palestinian refugees and people of other nationalities” will have equal access to the vaccine, Hassan added. “In addition to the accredited vaccines, as a Health Ministry we have allowed the registration of vaccines” from all countries and “a scientific, technical committee will be formed within the next 48 hours to devise a mechanism and specific standards that guarantee quality, efficacy and safety,” the minister explained. He also said that Lebanon has taken a decision to “accept any vaccine donation” but “according to the platform and the national plan.”
The Pfizer vaccine is expected to arrive in Lebanon in mid-February. Speaking at the same press conference, Dr. Abdul Rahman al-Bizri, the head of the National Committee for the Covid-19 Vaccine, said the priority will be for “protecting the health sector, the elderly and people who have chronic illnesses.”
“We encourage sectoral registration on the platform and individuals will also have the right to register,” he explained. He added that registration will be according to scientific standards and that beneficiaries will get cards containing information about the first and second doses and contact details to report any side effects. He also said that the Pfizer vaccine will be stored at minus 70 degrees Celsius at special refrigerators at the state-run Rafik Hariri University Hospital. “Our objective is to vaccinate 5.5 million people and reach immunity that protects the entire society,” Bizri added. The head of the parliamentary health committee, MP Assem Araji, for his part noted that “receiving the vaccine does not mean ending the precautionary measures of wearing masks and social distancing.”“It is necessary to wait until an 80% immunity is reached in society,” he added.

Covid-19 vaccination plan launched at Grand Serail
NNA/January 27/2021
A meeting was held today at the Grand Serail to unveil the Coronavirus Vaccination Plan. The meeting was attended by Ministers Zeina Akar, Imad Hoballah, Michel Najjar, Ramzi Musharrafieh, Hamad Hassan, Talal Hawat, Vartine Ohanian, and Charbel Wehbe, in addition to Parliamentary Health Committee Head, MP Assem Araji, head of the National Committee for the Management of the Vaccination file, Dr. Abdel-Rahman Al-Bizri, PCM Secretary General, Judge Mahmoud Makie, Secretary General of the Supreme Defense Council, Major General Mahmoud Al-Asmar, Drs. Walid Ammar and Mahmoud Zalzali from the MoPH’s Scientific Committee, heads of Hospital owners’, physicians’, pharmacists’, laboratory owners’, nurses’, and physical therapists’ Syndicates, representatives of WHO, WB, UNICEF, UNRWA, UNHCR, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), and the Red Cross.
The meeting was also attended by MPs Kassem Hachem, Inaya Ezzeddine, Fadi Alameh, Amine Sherri, Pierre Abi Assi, and Fadi Saad. The Minister of Health revealed the detailed plan, stating that it aims, inter alia, at vaccinating around 80 percent of the population in the course of 2021 and includes the following points:

1. Curbing the virus spread, that is, protecting as much as possible of the most vulnerable target groups, according to two criteria: global health data and Lebanon’s case-specific data which require targeting some of the most vulnerable groups in terms of the number of infections and deaths.
2. Reducing infections as much as possible, thus alleviating the burden on the health sector, especially in intensive care units.
3. Reducing the mortality rate.
As for the general principles set forth in the plan, they include, in line with international standards and covenants, the freedom of the person not be obliged to get vaccinated, after setting up a database of questionnaires and scientific data, which grants the citizen and the individual the freedom to make an informed decision, away from any false information, so as to ensure the target coverage stated in the national plan. The vaccine will be free of charge through the Ministry of Public Health, and there will be no financial fee to obtain the vaccine, even at private vaccination centers.
The Minister stressed that the approved vaccine will be given for all Lebanon’s residents, adding that the 12-point national vaccination plan comprises organizational matters, planning, resources, supply, target population groups, priorities, vaccination centers, infection prevention, vaccination monitoring, human resources, vaccines that the Lebanese state is purchasing, and authorization to introduce vaccines in the private market, as many political, institutional, civil and municipal actors are launching initiatives that need to be regulated”.
In turn, Dr. El-Bizri detailed the technical and organizational components of the plan, as well as mechanisms for importing the vaccine, rolling it out, and monitoring the post-vaccination process. He stated: “The plan aims at ensuring community protection according to clear scientific principles and standards. A specialized committee has been formed to follow up on the transparency of the vaccination process. It aims at guiding and tracking citizens through the vaccination stages, and monitoring the vaccine’s possible side effects. "
For his part, MP Araji said: "Starting the vaccination process does not mean abstaining from abiding by preventive measures, including among others, wearing a mask and observing social distancing. The vaccination process will extend to the end of the current year, and will be rolled out in several stages so as to reach the 80 percent herd immunity target. If we implement the plan properly, we will be in the clear by year-end.” -- Presidency of the Council of Ministers Press Office
 

31 Soldiers Injured in Tripoli Clashes, Army Says
Agence France Presse/January 27/2021
The Lebanese army said on Wednesday that 31 troops were injured in overnight clashes in the northern city of Tripoli with demonstrators angered by a coronavirus lockdown. The army said it arrested five people alleged to have "vandalised public and private property, incited riots and attacked security forces".
The Red Cross said dozens were injured in the clashes, but it was not immediately clear how many soldiers were included in the Red Cross toll. At least nine of the injured were treated in hospital following rolling scuffles, said the Red Cross. Protesters lobbed molotov cocktails, fireworks and stones at security forces who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets.

Red Cross: Dozens Injured in Lockdown Protests in Lebanon's Tripoli
Agence France Presse/January 27/2021
Overnight clashes in northern Lebanon between security forces and demonstrators angered by a coronavirus lockdown injured at least 45 people, the Lebanese Red Cross said on Wednesday. At least nine of the injured were treated in hospital following rolling scuffles in the main northern city of Tripoli, the Red Cross said. Protesters lobbed molotov cocktails, fireworks and stones at security forces who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets, an AFP correspondent reported. At least 30 people were injured in similar clashes in Tripoli on Monday night as frustration with tight coronavirus restrictions boiled over. Tripoli was already one of Lebanon's poorest areas even before the pandemic piled on new misery to a chronic economic crisis. Many of its residents have been left without an income since Lebanon imposed a full lockdown earlier this month in a bid to stem a surge in Covid-19 cases and prevent its hospitals being overwhelmed. "I can't even bring bread home" said Abdullah al-Bahr, a 39-year-old demonstrator. "We're either going to die of hunger or the coronavirus," the father of three told AFP. In other parts of the country on Tuesday night, demonstrators blocked major roads in protest at the coronavirus restrictions. Last week, authorities extended the lockdown by two weeks, angering day labourers and other vulnerable groups. A round-the-clock curfew is in force nationwide and grocery shopping is restricted to home deliveries, which are often unavailable in poorer areas. Lebanon has recorded over 285,000 coronavirus cases and more than 2,470 deaths since the pandemic began. The outbreak has compounded an economic crisis that has seen more than half of the population fall below the poverty line, with a quarter living in extreme poverty. The authorities say they have started disbursing monthly payments of 400,000 Lebanese pounds (around $50 at the market rate) to some 230,000 families. But caretaker social affairs minister Ramzi Musharrafieh acknowledged Tuesday that three-quarters of the population of more than six million need financial assistance.

Military Grenades, Gunfire' in Fresh Round of Clashes in Tripoli
Agence France Presse/January 27/2021
Intense clashes were underway between protesters and security forces Wednesday evening in the northern city of Tripoli. The National News Agency said the protesters set fire to the gate of the city’s serail and the nearby trees after hurling stones and Molotov cocktails at the serail’s building, prompting security forces to respond with tear gas and water cannons. The Internal Security Forces later fired gunshots in the air and warned protesters that it will defend its posts through "all legitimate means" after they tried to storm the serail from several sides. The ISF also accused protesters of breaching the serail's main gate, hurling Molotov cocktails at policemen and torching and damaging several vehicles. The ISF later said that "military hand grenades and not sound bombs or Molotovs" were hurled at its members in Tripoli, injuring nine policemen including three officers. It added that one of the officers was critically wounded.
Al-Jadeed TV meanwhile reported that several protesters were injured by live gunshots. The army later deployed in Tripoli's al-Nour Square in a bid to contain the situation. Red Cross crews meanwhile treated 22 wounded people on the ground and transported one person to hospital as other medics treated 12 people on the ground and transported three people to hospitals, which puts the overall injury toll at 38. "We are here to demand food. People are hungry," said 20-year-old protester Mohammed Ezzedine. "It's time for people to take to the streets." "We live in wretched conditions. I've knocked on every door but can't find work," he added. Protesters in other parts of the country also blocked major roads on Tuesday and Wednesday night. The unrest had first erupted on Monday in protest at dire economic situations aggravated by a strict coronavirus lockdown.
Tripoli was already one of Lebanon's poorest areas even before the pandemic piled on new misery to a chronic economic crisis. Many of its residents have been left without an income since Lebanon enforced a full lockdown earlier this month in a bid to stem a surge in Covid-19 cases and prevent its hospitals being overwhelmed. Last week, authorities extended the lockdown by two weeks, angering day laborers and other vulnerable groups. A round-the-clock curfew is in force nationwide and grocery shopping is restricted to home deliveries, which are often unavailable in poorer areas. Lebanon has recorded over 285,000 coronavirus cases and more than 2,470 deaths since the pandemic began. The outbreak has compounded an economic crisis that has seen more than half of the population fall below the poverty line, with a quarter living in extreme poverty.

Hariri Says Tripoli Demos May be Politicized but Urges Aid for the Poor
Naharnet/January 27/2021
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri on Wednesday said the ongoing protests in Tripoli might have been stirred by “sides seeking to address political messages” but he urged the state to provide assistance to poor families affected by the Covid-19 lockdown. “Sides seeking to address political messages might be behind the protests in Tripoli and there might be sides exploiting people’s pain and the economic hardship of the poor and low-income people,” Hariri said in a tweet. He added: “And certainly nothing can justify attacks on private property, markets and official institutions under the excuse of protesting the lockdown decision, but this does not negate the fact that there are segments of citizens who are looking for their daily bread.”“In the face of this, it is not proper for the state to stand idly by and not compensate the poor and needy families,” Hariri went on to say. “I warn our people in Tripoli and the various regions against any exploitation of their social conditions and I call on the state and the competent ministries to utilize all possible means to rein in poverty and hunger and provide the social requirements for citizens’ commitment to the lockdown decision,” the PM-designate urged. He also noted that the lockdown is aimed at “protecting citizens from the coronavirus danger,” emphasizing that “abiding by it is a responsibility that should not be neglected.”

Report: Hariri Likely to Visit Paris as Govt Deadlock Persists
Naharnet/January 27/2021
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri is reportedly “settling some issues” before he kicks off a visit to Paris following the efforts exerted by the French administration towards Lebanon, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Wednesday. Well-informed sources said the French administration represented by Emmanuel Macron, after the US President Joe Biden assumed office, has made endeavors in that direction. The two sides held contacts and expressed willingness to act together on the “situation in the Middle East, and on the situation in Lebanon.” But the sources noted that Macron-US contacts are still unable to find the appropriate approach to help restore the government formation talks between Hariri and President Michel Aoun. Aoun and Hariri last met on January 9 when Hariri submitted a government format that Aoun rejected.

Report: France Still Concerned about Govt Formation in Lebanon
Naharnet/January 27/2021
France reportedly believes that Washington has to adopt a “more realistic” approach with Hizbullah in order to help Lebanon steer out of its economic and political crisis, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Wednesday. A French Presidential official was quoted as saying that “there is an urgent situation in Lebanon, and we believe that there are priorities that (France and the United States) can pursue together.”“According to the French President,” the official said, “the priority in Lebanon is to form a new government that can continue to function effectively.”But the source added that it was unlikely for the American position towards Hizbullah to change, and that it would rather perceive the issue with “more American realism regarding what is possible or not possible given the existing conditions in Lebanon.”He said there are “no urgent plans to reschedule Macron's visit to Lebanon, which was postponed last December when he contracted the Coronavirus.”Meanwhile, the newspaper said that contacts on the formation process resumed overnight away from the media spotlight after the protests at the dire economic conditions that swarmed the streets of Tripoli, Sidon, Beirut and elsewhere. “Indirect negotiations” reportedly mediated by General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim, took place between Baabda and the Center House, said the daily. Ibrahim seeks to ease the obstacles hampering the formation, it added.

Lebanese Lawyers Seek to Halt Liquidation of UK-Registered Firm Possibly Linked to Beirut Blast
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 27 January, 2021
A Lebanese lawyers’ association has asked British authorities to halt the voluntary liquidation of a UK-registered company over possible links to last year’s explosion at Beirut port, according to a letter seen by Reuters. In the Jan. 25 letter to British lawmaker Margaret Hodge, the Beirut Bar Association (BBA) said it had asked the UK corporate registry, Companies House, to prevent the company, Savaro Ltd., which it described as an “indicted entity”, from being wound up in order to allow investigations into its possible role in the blast to continue. The letter from BBA president Melhem Khalaf asserts that Savaro has been indicted by the Lebanese judge in charge of the investigation, and that allowing Savaro to be wound up “before the end of the judicial proceedings would permit an indicted entity to evade justice”. The letter marks the first time that the possible indictment of Savaro has come to public light. Reuters was unable to confirm whether and when Savaro was indicted. The judge, the Lebanese justice ministry and Khalaf did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the letter. The woman listed as Savaro’s owner and sole director at Companies House, Marina Psyllou, did not respond to requests for comment on the letter. Companies House, which has the power to delay corporate liquidations, said it did not comment on individual cases. On Jan. 12, Psyllou submitted a request to Companies House to wind up Savaro, which had filed updates each year since 2008 saying it was dormant. Psyllou told Reuters last week she was acting as an agent for Savaro on behalf of another beneficial owner, whose identity she could not disclose. She denied that Savaro could have been linked to the Lebanon explosion, saying she believed it had never done any business. A Reuters investigation last year into the Beirut blast that killed 200 people found that the huge shipment of ammonium nitrate fertilizer that exploded had been held in Beirut while en route to Mozambique. The Mozambican buyer, FEM, identified the company it bought it from as Savaro. In the letter to Hodge, the BBA said Savaro’s name and address “appears on documents in its capacity as purchaser of the High-Density Ammonium Nitrate cargo that eventually exploded in August 2020”.Hodge last week called for a British investigation into Savaro. According to the letter, the BBA has been awarded plaintiff capacity in the case, which gave it access to details of the official investigation into the blast.

US Ambassador’s Political Tour Revives Lebanon, Israel Border Demarcation Talks
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 27 January, 2021 - 11:30
The visit of US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea, to President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri on Tuesday revived the file of the negotiations on the demarcation of the maritime borders with Israel, which were halted in December. Well-informed ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Shea discussed with the Lebanese officials pending files, mainly the border demarcation. The United States seeks to assume the role of mediator and facilitator of the indirect negotiations, which were launched on Oct. 14. Four sessions were held between representatives from Lebanon and Israel, but they collided with difficult demands from both sides. The US has expressed readiness to complete its mission even after the negotiations have faltered. In remarks following his meeting with Shea, Aoun affirmed “Lebanon’s position regarding the resumption of negotiations based on proposals presented during previous meetings.”
Berri, for his part, underlined the need to resume the talks with impetus, “given the importance of the results envisaged for Lebanon and for its sovereign rights to invest in its wealth.” After announcing the framework agreement to initiate border demarcation negotiations, Lebanon produced a new map demanding an area of 2,290 nautical kilometers, to which the Israelis responded with another map demanding hundreds of additional kilometers in Lebanese economic waters, reaching off the city of Sidon, south of Beirut. As a result, the negotiations were suspended last December and were replaced by a round of bilateral talks conducted by the US envoy in Beirut and Tel Aviv. Shea hoped the negotiations would resume, the sources told Asharq Al-Awsat, pointing out that the matter was now awaiting Israel’s response.

Diab Says Govt. Can't be Formed through Tripoli's 'Burning Tires'
Naharnet/Wednesday 27/01/2021
Caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Wednesday suggested that there are “political messages” behind the unrest in Tripoli. “The people’s scram is understood and heard and the Lebanese are facing huge challenges,” Diab said, noting that “the state is offering aid despite its difficult financial situation.”
“The army has started distributing the new batch of the LBP 400,000 assistance to around 250,000 families. It is true that this assistance does not meet their needs but it contributes to alleviating the burden,” Diab added. “But there is a big difference between the honest expression of people’s pain and the acts of sabotage and attacks against state institutions and people’s properties,” the caretaker PM went on to say, in reference to the incidents in Tripoli. He stressed that it is unacceptable to “ruin the city of Tripoli for the sake of addressing political messages from it.” “It is unacceptable for Tripoli, or any Lebanese region, to remain a burning mailbox. It is unacceptable to block roads in the face of people as part of the approach of political defiance,” Diab added. He also emphasized that “the government cannot be formed or blocked through burning tires, the blocking of roads and attacks on state institutions, the Internal Security Forces and the Lebanese Army.” Fresh clashes erupted in the afternoon in Tripoli in the wake of Diab’s remarks. Overnight clashes in Tripoli between security forces and demonstrators angered by the coronavirus lockdown injured at least 45 people, the Lebanese Red Cross said on Wednesday. Tripoli was already one of Lebanon's poorest areas even before the pandemic piled on new misery to a chronic economic crisis. Many of its residents have been left without an income since Lebanon enforced a full lockdown earlier this month in a bid to stem a surge in Covid-19 cases and prevent its hospitals being overwhelmed. Last week, authorities extended the lockdown by two weeks, angering day laborers and other vulnerable groups. A round-the-clock curfew is in force nationwide and grocery shopping is restricted to home deliveries, which are often unavailable in poorer areas. Lebanon has recorded over 285,000 coronavirus cases and more than 2,470 deaths since the pandemic began. The outbreak has compounded an economic crisis that has seen more than half of the population fall below the poverty line, with a quarter living in extreme poverty.
 

US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
NNA/Wednesday 27/01/2021
The Money Changers Syndicate announced in a statement addressed to money changing companies and institutions Wednesday’s USD exchange rate against the Lebanese pound as follows:
Buying price at a minimum of LBP 3850
Selling price at a maximum of LBP 3900

Lebanese-Canadian Academic to be Tried over 1980 Paris Bombing
Agence France Presse/Wednesday 27/01/2021
A French court on Wednesday ordered a Lebanese-Canadian academic to stand trial over the 1980 bombing of a Paris synagogue, three years after magistrates deemed the evidence against him was "not convincing enough."Four people were killed and 46 injured in the October 3, 1980, attack on a synagogue on Copernic street in Paris -- the first fatal attack on Jews in France since the Nazi occupation in World War II. Hassan Diab, 67, is accused of having planted the bomb. He was extradited from Canada to France in 2014, but released in 2018 after investigating magistrates dismissed the case, saying the evidence was too weak. On Wednesday, a Paris appeals court overturned that decision and ordered him to stand trial in the latest twist in a decades-long legal saga playing out on both sides of the Atlantic. Diab's French legal team called the ruling "crazy," telling AFP it was motivated purely by a "politically correct" drive to have a trial at all costs.
Victims' 'long struggle'
But a lawyer for the synagogue and for the families of two of the victims of the attack hailed the prospect of a trial. "We're almost the end of a long struggle," Bernard Cahen said. A former professor of sociology at the University of Ottawa, Diab is accused of planting explosives inside the saddle bag of a motorbike that exploded outside the synagogue close to the Champs-Elysees, where hundreds had gathered for Sabbath prayers. Investigators blamed the attack on the Special Operations branch of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). Diab has always denied involvement in the bombing, saying he was taking exams in Beirut at the time. He spent a total of nine years either in jail or under strict bail conditions in Canada and France, awaiting trial. After his release from custody in France, he returned to Canada and sued the government there for millions of dollars for extraditing him. Evidence presented against him in France included a sketch of the bomber that resembled him and the discovery of a passport in his name with entry and exit stamps from Spain, where the bomber is believed to have fled. There were also testimonies from witnesses that Diab was a member of the PFLP. Dismissing the case in 2018, investigating magistrates said the evidence showed that Diab was "probably" in Lebanon at the time of the attack. But the state prosecutor's office continued to push for a trial, saying that while there were "doubts" as to his whereabouts at the time of the bombing, it was a matter for a court to resolve. During Diab's long battle against extradition, artists and activists in Canada, including filmmaker Atom Egoyan and political activist Naomi Klein, rallied behind him. It is uncertain whether he can be extradited back to France again.

Lebanese workers thrust into poverty, depression amid COVID-19 lockdown
Mona Alami, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday 27 January 2021
Lebanon has extended its all-day lockdown until February to curb the spread of coronavirus. The lockdown, in place for nearly a month by February 8, is hitting daily wage and informal workers hard, who find themselves without resources and walking a fine line between life and death.
As COVID-19 cases spiraled out of control in Lebanon, the government enforced a lockdown from January 14 to 23. With daily infection rates remaining exceptionally high and COVID-19 death tolls spiking, the government decided to expand the total confinement for two more weeks until February 8.
“The impact of the lockdown has been brutal on daily wage and informal workers because of their already fragile situation. In Lebanon, 55 percent of the population is comprised of daily wage and informal workers with no social protection or regular contracts. If they do not work, they don’t earn any money. They have thus lost all source of income with the current lockdown,” said sociologist Dr Adib Nehme. Mona Saad, head of the Maarouf Saad Social and Cultural Foundation concurred, adding that the government had no plan in place to bring relief aid to daily wage workers, such as artisans, taxi drivers, waiters, sailors and others, during lockdown. “Unlike other governments, the Lebanese government maintains a reactionary approach to the COVID situation and no long-term plan,” she said.
In the last few weeks, Lebanon has averaged 5,000 new COVID-19 cases per day, with deaths rising between 40-60 every day. The situation is no better in the country’s intensive care units, where the occupancy rate is close to saturation at 90 percent in most of the country and 100 percent in Beirut, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
In 2020 poverty among Lebanese had increased to 55 percent from 28 percent in 2018, while extreme poverty had tripled to 23 percent from 8 percent, according to UNICEF. For Syrian refugees, 91 percent of households were now living under the poverty line and 88 percent living in extreme poverty.
Charbel a taxi driver said he hadn’t worked in over two weeks. “I can barely make ends meet. I used to be a mechanic, now I work as a taxi driver to sustain my family. With the lockdown I can’t provide anymore for them and rely on my in-laws for help,” he underlined.
Competition for work was so high in recent weeks that a brawl between taxi drivers erupted last week at the Beirut airport over who would shuttle incoming travelers to their hotels.
The situation is compounded for daily wage workers in Palestinian camps. Oussama Oueity works as a painter. He makes less than $6 on a good day, which allows him to feed his family with some bread, rice and lentils, as well as buy medication for his son who suffers from a heart condition. With the lockdown, his family now sticks to a strict regimen of bread and rice. “I still give thanks to God that some of my clients and Fatah, the Palestinian organization give me a stipend that allows us to survive,” he points out.
Inflation had already soared to 133 percent by October last year, with prices set to rise even further this year. Along with a crushing currency devaluation, the impact of these crisis will further increase the risk of more households falling into poverty. “If the lockdown continues for one or two more months, I will have to close my hair salon. The Lebanese pound devaluation combined with the COVID crisis has made our situation untenable. Unlike other countries, the Lebanese state has done nothing to support daily wage workers or small businesses during the lockdown,” said hairdresser David Checherian.
Additionally, financial problems combined with the lockdown are putting pressure on people’s mental health. Thousands of Lebanese are suffering from extreme depression and looking for dangerous solutions to the economic depression, Nehme explained.
“People are facing a slow death, they are resorting to increasing violence and this will eventually threaten the fabric of the country’s social security,” Saad added.
 

Amid Crisis, Hizbullah 'Bank' a Lifeline for Some Lebanese
Associated Press/Wednesday 27/01/2021
When Lebanon's financial meltdown began in late 2019, Hassan Shoumar was locked out of his dollar savings like everyone else in the country as banks clamped down with capital controls. But the young engineer had an alternative. He could still pull out the dollars in his account at the al-Qard al-Hasan Association, the financial arm of the Hizbullah group. Shoumar had kept an account at the association for years, ever since he had taken a loan from it to pay university fees. Unlike Lebanon's commercial banks, the accounts at the association didn't earn interest. But the 28-year-old Shoumar didn't care about that.
"What I care about is that when I want my money, I can get it," he said by telephone from south Lebanon. Stepping in where the state and financial institutions have failed, Hizbullah is providing a vital lifeline for some Lebanese. In the country's wrecked economy, everyone is desperate for hard currency and liquidity as the local currency plummets in value. At commercial banks, depositors stand in line for hours and fight with managers in vain to access their dollar savings. Most banks have stopped giving loans. But at Hizbullah's al-Qard al-Hasan people can take out small, interest-free loans in dollars, enabling them to pay school fees, get married, buy a used car or open a small business. They can also open saving accounts there. The association, officially a non-profit charity, is one of the tools by which Hizbullah entrenches its support among the country's Shiite population, even as the group has come under enormous criticism over the past year among Lebanese furious at the political elite. With poverty rising across Lebanon, Hizbulah provides its community with low-cost schools and hospitals and distributes heating fuel to the poor. Hizbullah continues to pay its fighters and employees in its institutions in U.S. dollars, while everyone else gets their salaries in Lebanese pounds, which lost about 80% of their value in the crisis.
Over the past year, the al-Qard al-Hasan association has seen a significant increase in clients, despite it being under U.S. Treasury sanctions since 2007. "People's lack of confidence in the banking sector forced them to find other places," said Batoul Tahini, a spokeswoman for the association.
She said the number of deposits was much higher than 2019 and previous years, though loans did not increase very much. She declined to give exact figures. In a recent speech, Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said around 300,000 people currently are dealing with the association on loans. The association says its clients are from Lebanon's various sects. But the vast majority are believed to be Shiite Muslims. Roy Badaro, a Lebanese economist, said the association is part of Hizbullah's state-within-a-state and a "disguised way to complement their activity through microfinance, similar to Hizbullah-run schools, hospitals, etc.""The aim is to absorb the economic crisis among poor Shiites," he said. Al-Qard al-Hasan, whose name in Arabic means "the benevolent loan," offers interest-free loans up to $5,000 and, importantly these days, it gives them in dollars. Active for more than three decades, it is considered Lebanon's largest non-banking financial institution giving microloans. Clients must put up gold as collateral or bring a guarantor. They then pay back the loan in monthly installments for up to 30 months, after which the collateral is returned. Clients can also set up accounts to deposit money, which is then used to finance the loans. The association operates under Islamic rules forbidding interest. Lebanon's economic and financial crisis is the country's worst in modern history, with the economy contracting 19% in 2020. Tens of thousands around the country have lost their jobs, and nearly half the population of more than 6 million is in poverty. The crisis shattered people's confidence in Lebanon's banking system, once among the most respected in the region. As banks took a hit, many people decided to keep their money at home, amounting to up to $10 billion, according to central bank governor Riad Salameh. That has proven a boon for the al-Qard al-Hasan association, as some turned to it as an alternative to store their cash. The risk for Hizbullah is that as poverty rises and the economic crisis worsens, many people might default on their loans, the economist Badaro said. If that happens, Hizbullah might have to use its own funds to cover deposits, he said.
The association's prominence has also made it a target.
A hacking group calling itself "Spiderz" claimed that it broke into the association's system and posted the identities of some clients and security camera footage from some of its branches. It warned clients to withdraw their money or else they might come under American sanctions. Al-Qard al-Hasan confirmed there was a cyberattack in late December that it called "partial and limited." It told clients not to worry about their identities being revealed. Tahini said the issue is under investigation. The sight of the association's clients getting their dollars without problems has also bred resentments over Hizbullah's power in Lebanon. "This shows that Hizbullah is safe and relaxed, while we are in a dilemma," Walid Joumblatt, political leader of Lebanon's Druze community and a Hizbullah critic, said in an interview with Sky News Arabia. He joked that he was growing his beard like conservative Muslims to get a loan from al-Qard al-Hasan. In a speech days later, Hizbullah leader Nasrallah shot back, saying all anyone had to do was fill out an application and put up the gold collateral. He also depicted the association as rock solid, providing $3.7 billion in loans to some 1.8 million people since it was founded. He boasted that U.S. sanctions on Hizbullah officials only strengthened al-Qard al-Hasan, since some of them moved their accounts from banks to the association. He revealed for the first time that during the 2006 war with Israel, Israeli warplanes struck a site where money and gold were stored. Despite that, he boasted, every client got their money. "No one ever lost a cent," he said.

Hezbollah uses financial arms to entrench influence

The Arab Weekly/Wednesday 27/01/2021
Al-Qard al-Hasan, whose name in Arabic means “the benevolent loan,” offers interest-free loans up to $5,000 and, importantly these days, it gives them in dollars. Over the past year, it has seen a significant increase in clients, despite being under US Treasury sanctions since 2007.
When Lebanon’s financial meltdown began in late 2019, Hassan Shoumar was locked out of his dollar savings like everyone else in the country as banks clamped down with capital controls.But the young engineer had an alternative. He could still pull out the dollars in his account at the al-Qard al-Hasan Association, the financial arm of the militant Hezbollah group. Shoumar had kept an account at the association for years, ever since he had taken a loan from it to pay university fees. Unlike Lebanon’s commercial banks, the accounts at the association didn’t earn interest. But the 28-year-old Shoumar didn’t care about that. “What I care about is that when I want my money, I can get it,” he said by telephone from south Lebanon. Stepping in where the state and financial institutions have failed, Hezbollah is providing a vital lifeline for some Lebanese. In the country’s wrecked economy, everyone is desperate for hard currency and liquidity as the local currency plummets in value. At commercial banks, depositors stand in line for hours and fight with managers in vain to access their dollar savings. Most banks have stopped giving loans. But at Hezbollah’s al-Qard al-Hasan people can take out small, interest-free loans in dollars, enabling them to pay school fees, get married, buy a used car or open a small business. They can also open saving accounts there. The association, officially a non-profit charity, is one of the tools by which Hezbollah entrenches its support among the country’s Shia population, even as the group has come under enormous criticism over the past year among Lebanese furious at the political elite. With poverty rising across Lebanon, Hezbollah provides its community with low-cost schools and hospitals and distributes heating fuel to the poor. Hezbollah continues to pay its fighters and employees in its institutions in US dollars, while everyone else gets their salaries in Lebanese pounds, which lost about 80% of their value in the crisis. Over the past year, the al-Qard al-Hasan association has seen a significant increase in clients, despite it being under US Treasury sanctions since 2007.
“People’s lack of confidence in the banking sector forced them to find other places,” said Batoul Tahini, a spokeswoman for the association. She said the number of deposits was much higher than 2019 and previous years, though loans did not increase very much. She declined to give exact figures.
A state-within-a-state
In a recent speech, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said around 300,000 people currently are dealing with the association on loans. The association says its clients are from Lebanon’s various sects. But the vast majority are believed to be Shia Muslims. Roy Badaro, a Lebanese economist, said the association is part of Hezbollah’s state-within-a-state and a “disguised way to complement their activity through microfinance, similar to Hezbollah-run schools, hospitals, etc.” “The aim is to absorb the economic crisis among poor Shias,” he said. Al-Qard al-Hasan, whose name in Arabic means “the benevolent loan,” offers interest-free loans up to $5,000 and, importantly these days, it gives them in dollars. Active for more than three decades, it is considered Lebanon’s largest non-banking financial institution giving microloans. Clients must put up gold as collateral or bring a guarantor. They then pay back the loan in monthly installments for up to 30 months, after which the collateral is returned. Clients can also set up accounts to deposit money, which is then used to finance the loans. The association operates under Islamic rules forbidding interest. Lebanon’s economic and financial crisis is the country’s worst in modern history, with the economy contracting 19% in 2020. Tens of thousands around the country have lost their jobs, and nearly half the population of more than 6 million is in poverty.

A crisis for some, a boon for others
The crisis shattered people’s confidence in Lebanon’s banking system, once among the most respected in the region. As banks took a hit, many people decided to keep their money at home, amounting to up to $10 billion, according to Central Bank governor Riad Salameh.
That has proven a boon for the al-Qard al-Hasan association, as some turned to it as an alternative to store their cash. The risk for Hezbollah is that as poverty rises and the economic crisis worsens, many people might default on their loans, the economist Badaro said. If that happens, Hezbollah might have to use its own funds to cover deposits, he said. The association’s prominence has also made it a target. A hacking group calling itself “Spiderz” claimed that it broke into the association’s system and posted the identities of some clients and security camera footage from some of its branches. It warned clients to withdraw their money or else they might come under American sanctions. Al-Qard al-Hasan confirmed there was a cyberattack in late December that it called “partial and limited.” It told clients not to worry about their identities being revealed. Tahini said the issue is under investigation.
The sight of the association’s clients getting their dollars without problems has also bred resentment over Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon. “This shows that Hezbollah is safe and relaxed, while we are in a dilemma,” Walid Joumblatt, political leader of Lebanon’s Druze community and a Hezbollah critic, said in an interview with Sky News Arabia. He joked that he was growing his beard like conservative Muslims to get a loan from al-Qard al-Hasan. In a speech days later, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah shot back, saying all anyone had to do was fill out an application and put up the gold collateral.
He also depicted the association as rock solid, providing $3.7 billion in loans to some 1.8 million people since it was founded. He boasted that US sanctions on Hezbollah officials only strengthened al-Qard al-Hasan, since some of them moved their accounts from banks to the association.
He revealed for the first time that during the 2006 war with Israel, Israeli warplanes struck a site where money and gold were stored. Despite that, he boasted, every client got their money.
“No one ever lost a cent,” he said.

Hezbollah and the Politics of Vaccine Delays in Lebanon/Hezbollah is profiting from the pandemic.
Makram Rabah/Washington Institute/January 27/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/95336/makram-rabah-washington-institute-hezbollah-and-the-politics-of-vaccine-delays-in-lebanon-hezbollah-is-profiting-from-the-pandemic-%d9%85%d9%83%d8%b1%d9%85-%d8%b1%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%ad-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87/
In Lebanon, a new joke has appeared to make sense of the country’s disastrous experience with the pandemic. In the joke, an American doctor asks his Lebanese counterpart why Lebanon hasn’t acquired the Covid-19 vaccine. He replies: “First we need to convince the Lebanese people that Covid-19 exists.”
Lebanon has entered its third lockdown since the start of the pandemic—the end of which has just been extended into February—and access to the vaccine seems well out of sight as the Lebanese government has yet to acquire any doses of any vaccine available. The Lebanese government has promised to buy the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine by February, with World Bank money now reallocated for vaccine purchase as well.
However, these deals highlight just how delayed Lebanon has been in providing any vaccines to its population. The horrendous manner in which the Lebanese government has responded to the spread of Covid-19 in the country hasn’t been limited to a lack of foresight; these failures are also driven by the politics of Hezbollah and the ruling establishment, who are using the pandemic and a delayed rollout of the vaccine to keep up their hold over the status quo and prevent the return of normalcy.
Through its weapons but more importantly its alliance with Maronite President Michael Aoun, Hezbollah controls or influences all aspects of Lebanon’s archaic political system. Hezbollah has also established a pact with Lebanon’s so-called political elite—even those who openly criticize Hezbollah—whereby Iran’s influence is not openly challenged. In exchange, the Lebanese political establishment is allowed to run its corruption schemes, which Hezbollah also profits from, similarly unchallenged.
This dysfunction has had a major impact on the country’s ability to fight the virus. Until recently, Lebanon was ineligible to receive either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine because these companies requested that countries planning to use the two products pass a law exempting the companies from any legal liabilities for at least one year, at least until the vaccines receive final non-emergency U.S. FDA approval. Naturally, for this life-saving law to pass, it required the Lebanese parliament to convene and vote on it. It finally met on Friday, after over a month of waffling on this matter, and wasting valuable time in the process.
This reluctance to acquire the vaccines also stems from economic considerations; all sides involved have profited from the huge number of daily PCR tests used to detect Covid-19, with 2,283,225 tested to date. A huge industry of laboratories and equipment have grown around the pandemic, allowing political parties and Hezbollah to secure steady incomes at a time when Lebanon’s overall economy is headed towards collapse. These PCR tests are mainly subsidized by the state and Lebanese taxpayers. According to the logic of these profiteers, rolling out vaccines would put them out of business. Hezbollah-operated labs have secured large contracts from the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health (MOH)—a portfolio controlled by Hezbollah supporters—which will not change even if the vaccine is acquired.
Another major impediment to acquiring the western-developed vaccine is simply that Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and his Lebanese proxy Hassan Nasrallah won’t accept Pfizer or Moderna because they are ‘American’ vaccines—though both companies are German—and would instead likely prefer to deal with the Russian or Chinese government and their versions of the vaccine.
In this respect, the stalling of the government formation is also connected to Hezbollah maintaining its grasp over the Ministry of Public Health until after it has been able to profit off of the vaccine, including doses that will almost certainly make their way across the border into Syria to inoculate those in the affluent circle around Bashar al-Assad.
Despite finally signing a deal with Pfizer on January 17 to provide 2 million doses to Lebanon, the Lebanese state and the MOH are under lot of pressure and suspicion from the general public, who doubt their ability to see through the nation-wide vaccination process. Though the Lebanese government has claimed that they can provide the special conditions and thermal storage units to prevent the vaccines from expiring, past performance of the MOH sheds significant doubt on such claims: scandal broke recently when it emerged that the MOH had been storing respirators at one of their facilities while Lebanese hospitals scrambled to provide rooms and medical equipment for Covid patients. Some patients had to be given oxygen in the hospital parking lots after their emergency rooms and intensive care units reached capacity.
The lack of foresight and proper state planning is also clearly visible in PM designee Saad Hariri’s recent announcement that he had acquired 500,000 doses of the Chinese vaccine from the UAE. Despite this noble deed, it would have been more empowering for the Lebanese state if it had been able to obtain vaccines through the proper channels rather than relying on the goodwill of other countries.
In Lebanon, the pandemic is only part of the overall gloomy reality. The country’s challenges and political debacles are certainly not easy to fix, though not impossible to cure. Isolating the ruling establishment—and especially Hezbollah—is essential for this reality to change.
The successes of Israel, Jordan, and other neighboring countries in vaccinating their populations only further highlights how spectacularly Lebanon is failing at protecting its people. The country needs to find a way to exit the club of failed nations and its current path of blundering from one crisis to another. Until Lebanon conquers its demons, the international community, and chiefly the Biden administration, should refrain from politically or financially bailing out the Lebanese political elite and Hezbollah, and they should ensure that any form of aid or relief goes straight to the needy Lebanese, while continuing to impose further sanctions on their corrupt political class.
Until then, if the Lebanese are wondering why they haven’t been given the vaccine, they can blame themselves as well for remaining dormant while foreign and domestic enemies maintain control of the country.
*Makram Rabah is a lecturer of history at the American University of Beirut and lead consultant with Quantum Communications. Rabah is a contributor to Fikra Forum.
 

Reasons behind Hezbollah’s New Campaign against the LAF
Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/January 27/2021
حنين غدار/العربية: الأسباب التي تقف وراء حملة حزب الله الجديدة على الجيش اللبناني
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/95341/hanin-ghaddar-reasons-behind-hezbollahs-new-campaign-against-the-laf-%d8%ad%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%ba%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%b3%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%8a/

On June 8, 2021, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah held the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) responsible for delaying and refusing to show the public the findings of its Beirut port explosion investigation. One week later the militia started a public campaign against the LAF and its commander Joseph Aoun, when Hezbollah-affiliated journalists criticized the army.
There are two reasons behind this campaign:
First, Hezbollah is trying to deflect the collective blame for the port explosion because reports showed that the ammonium nitrate belonged to the Syrian regime. As no one in Lebanon can deny Hezbollah’s close relationship with Syria the militia needs a scapegoat.
Second, Hezbollah wants to make sure that the army commandment does not try to regain any of the institution’s independence now that all state institutions are facing collapse amid security challenges.
As it unfolds, this issue will force itself on the Joe Biden administration, because the US continues to give support, and aid to the LAF.
Hezbollah has always tried to influence LAF security and military decisions, but Joseph Aoun has started to slowly distance himself from the Lebanese president Michel Aoun, and other militia allies.
A long-term, and significant reason why Hezbollah is attacking the army commander, is because Joseph Aoun has presidential ambitions. With a good relationship with the US it makes him a stronger candidate than Hezbollah’s choice for presidency, the MP, Gebran Bassil, who was recently sanctioned by the US presidency.
The Lebanese army is probably the only institution in Lebanon that is still diverse, and enjoys a considerable level of trust and respect among the Lebanese people and the international community. This in spite of Hezbollah’s deep infiltration of the institution and its brigades. With the security and social collapse facing Lebanon, many in the international community, and mainly from Europe and the US are coordinating directly with the army to distribute aid and humanitarian assistance.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s financial crisis increases and its access to state institutions are no longer lucrative, but from some income sources, such as from the Ministry of Health, for example.
There are several implications that could result from the attacks on the LAF commander. Several are significant.
First, if the LAF leadership succumbed to Hezbollah’s threats, distanced itself from the US, and fully joined the Iranian axis in Lebanon, then the US might reconsider its help to it. Considering the financial crisis facing Lebanon and all its institutions, with this aid required more than ever. The US will also lose its leverage in Lebanon, with the LAF losing its integrity, and trustworthiness within the international community.
Second, Joseph Aoun could resist Hezbollah’s attacks for now, keeping his distance from public dynamics, and a low-profile until building new relations with the Biden administration happen. This maintains the status quo, and the attacks will continue.
Third, Joseph Aoun could stand up to the group, and enforce LAF’s institutional power and independence, without jeopardizing freedom of speech and expression. Hezbollah is testing the army, and as a new US administration enters the fray, Joseph Aoun may draw a red line.
This scenario could lead to a division within the institution. Both the LAF and Hezbollah require loyalty from their commanders and generals, and Lebanon could end up with a divided institution, with one supported by the West, and the other by Iran.
That is not ideal, as past experience show that a divided institution backfires on Lebanon’s fragile security. Therefore, it is wise that the international community acts on two levels: stand with LAF and empower it against Hezbollah, while make public the findings of international and local investigations of the port explosion, and show once and for all who’s responsible, and should be held accountable.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 27-28/2021

Iran Says Israel Waging 'Psychological War'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 27 January, 2021
A top Iranian official Wednesday said arch-foe Israel was waging a "psychological war" after the Jewish state's army said new "offensive options" were being drawn up in case they were needed against Iran. Mahmoud Vaezi, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's chief of staff, also vowed that his country was ready and willing to defend itself. "We have no intention of going to war, but we are serious about defending the country," he said, AFP reported. Israel, a close US ally, accuses Iran of seeking to build a nuclear bomb, a charge Tehran denies. The Jewish state also frequently targets Iran-backed militant groups in Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip. Israel's military chief General Aviv Kochavi said Tuesday he had ordered new plans be drawn up this year to counter Iran's nuclear capabilities, in case political leaders decided to target the country. "The power to initiate them lies with the political echelon," Kochavi stressed. "However, the offensive options need to be prepared, ready and on the table."Iran's Vaezi shot back on Wednesday that "they are conducting a psychological war." Responding to a question on the sidelines of a council of ministers meeting, he charged that Israel has "practically no plans, no capacity".
Iran's recent military manoeuvres, testing missiles and drones, Vaezi added, showed that "our armed forces are trained" to defend Iran. Kochavi's remarks came nearly a week after the inauguration of US President Joe Biden, who has signaled he wants to return to dialogue with Iran. His predecessor Donald Trump had unilaterally withdrawn Washington in 2018 from a nuclear deal Tehran had struck with major world powers. Biden's team has argued Iran must first return to strict compliance with its nuclear commitments under the deal with Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. Tehran has demanded an "unconditional" lifting of punishing sanctions first, and called on Washington to stop seeking to "extract concessions". Israel rejects the original nuclear deal, and Kochavi reiterated its view that "any agreement that resembles the 2015 agreement is a bad thing, both strategically and operationally". "Pressure on Iran must continue -- Iran must not have the capacity to develop a nuclear bomb."

Iran Waits For Biden to Make the First Diplomatic Move
Washington - Elie Youssef/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 27/2021
Iran has no plans to hold talks with the new US administration and is waiting for President Joe Biden to take the first step to lift sanctions and return to the nuclear agreement, Tehran's UN ambassador told NBC News. In his first interview since Biden was sworn in last week, Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi announced that Iran has not spoken to the new administration yet. In 2018, former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed between Iran and international powers to limit Tehran’s nuclear program in return for easing economic sanctions.
Iran denied reports about negotiations between a team led by Takht Ravanchi and the US administration, however, several media leaks reported that the mediation channels between Washington and Tehran have been reactivated. Washington is not in a hurry to start negotiations with Tehran, and its return to the nuclear agreement is conditioned with an agreement on Iran’s missile activities and its destabilizing role in the region. Many political circles and researchers affiliated with the Democratic party refrain from commenting on the issue of Biden's approach towards Tehran. Meanwhile, senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) Richard Goldberg said that statements of Biden administration officials are now subject to analysis. Goldberg, who previously served as an advisor on Iran in the Trump administration, told Asharq Al-Awsat that officials in the Biden administration are debating the return to the JCPOA first, and later they might seek a new agreement that addresses other issues."The advisor believes it would be a strategic mistake because the United States would lose influence in advance before forcing the Iranians to address other matters. He added that at the same time, Antony Blinken, who is nominated for the position of the secretary of state, announced that he does not believe it is in Washington’s national security interest to lift sanctions targeting Iran's central bank, the national oil company, financial sector, and energy sector. Blinken believes that sanctions should remain imposed on the central bank and oil company because of their involvement in financing terrorism, and both entities are among the institutions that would benefit from the JCPOA.
 

Senate confirms Biden confidant Antony Blinken as secretary of state
Joel Gehrke/Foreign Affairs/January 27/2021
The Senate approved President Biden’s choice to lead the State Department, Antony Blinken, in a fast-tracked vote to round out the top ranks of the new president’s national security team.
Blinken is expected to begin work immediately as the new administration faces several global challenges, including an Iran that has shown signs of moving ahead with its nuclear arms program while causing trouble in the Middle East, an increasingly aggressive and defiant China, and a Russian president in Vladimir Putin who has shown continued willingness to attack the United States through cyberspace and protesters at home with police batons or self-ordered prison sentences. But the list does not end there, and Biden's top diplomat will be his point man around the world as the president tries to bring about the "unity" he says is needed at home while also trying to enact his ambitious left-leaning agenda. The Senate confirmed Blinken as the country's 71st secretary of state 78-22 during the midday vote. Though some Republicans raised concerns about his views, Blinken received ample bipartisan praise — a break from the combative years under Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump. “Confirming Mr. Blinken is not just about the nominee himself,” incoming Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Menendez, who shepherded the Blinken nomination through the process, said this week prior to the vote. “It's about doing what the American people expect and that the Constitution requires — providing advice and consent to ensure that national security officials are in office in a timely matter.”Blinken is well known in the Senate, where he worked for several years as Foreign Relations Committee staff director under then-Sen. Biden before ascending to the top echelons of the State Department under Obama. That familiarity entails a record vulnerable to GOP attacks, but his nomination process was marked more by an effort to signal a united front on foreign policy after a tumultuous presidential transition.
“If we treat each other with kindness and respect, we get things done,” outgoing Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Jim Risch, an Idaho Republican, said at the beginning of Blinken’s hearing this week.
Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, credited Risch with “working with me to try to accelerate Mr. Blinken’s nomination to the floor,” but the process wasn’t all carefree conviviality. Blinken’s role as one of Biden’s closest advisers put him near the center of a litany of foreign policy disputes between Republicans and the Obama administration. "Mr. Blinken has a long and distinguished history when it comes to statecraft and foreign relations matters," Risch said Tuesday on the Senate floor before the vote was called. "Certainly, he is very qualified for this job."
The outgoing chairman signaled his support even as he said, "We don't agree on everything. No one ever does." He added, "In speaking with Mr. Blinken on these matters, there is a tremendous amount of agreement that we have." Still, he criticized the Obama administration's nuclear deal with Iran, saying Blinken and Biden intending to reenter that deal "is a mistake." However, other GOP senators seem less convinced about Blinken's qualifications and judgment. “Robert Gates, the former Secretary of Defense under President Obama, noted that Joe Biden 'has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades,’” Sen. John Barrasso, a Wyoming Republican, said in one of the frostiest exchanges of the Tuesday hearing. “I bring this up because you were an integral part in advising both Biden and Obama on these failed foreign policy decisions. Even with years of experience in foreign policy, when it came time to make the right decisions, in your own words, you say you failed.” Blinken adopted a bipartisan posture in his confirmation hearing, particularly on China, as he endorsed former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s last-minute determination that China is committing genocide against Uighur Muslims and paid qualified compliments to his predecessors. “President Trump was right in taking a tougher approach to China," Blinken said. “I disagree very much with the way he went about it in a number of areas, but the basic principle was the right one.”He also sought to assure Republicans that the Biden administration wouldn’t inaugurate a simple repetition of the Obama-era policies they opposed. “We’ll engage the world not as it was, but as it is,” Blinken said. News Foreign Policy National Security Antony Blinken State Department China Senate Foreign Relations Bob Menendez Biden Administration

Israel reopens mission to Morocco after 20 years
Jerusalem Post/January 27/2021
“This is living proof of the changes in the region and the warm peace between us and countries in the region,” Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi said. The Israeli Liaison Office in Morocco reopened on Tuesday when former ambassador to Egypt David Govrin arrived in Rabat. It had been closed for 20 years. The Israeli Consulate in Dubai also opened, two days after the Israeli Embassy in the United Arab Emirates opened in Abu Dhabi, the capital. “The arrival of the heads of Israeli missions to Morocco and Dubai completes the first important phase of opening new Israeli missions in the region within the framework of the Abraham Accords,” Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi said. In recent weeks, the number of Israeli missions in the Middle East was multiplied threefold, from two, in Amman and Cairo, to six, with the addition Bahrain, Morocco and two in the UAE, he said.
“This is living proof of the changes in the region and the warm peace between us and countries in the region,” Ashkenazi said. “This is an important day for peace and an exciting day in the framework of implementing agreements with the UAE and Morocco.”Govrin will serve as the head of the Israeli Liaison Office in Morocco, which was previously opened in 1994 and closed six years later during the Second Intifada. Morocco had an office in Tel Aviv at the time, which it plans to reopen. Israel and Morocco plan to establish full diplomatic relations, announced last month within the framework of the Abraham Accords, the peace and normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states negotiated by former US president Donald Trump’s administration.Govrin plans to work toward advancing diplomatic dialogue between the countries, tourism and cultural and economic exchanges.
The Israeli Consulate in Dubai will be headed by former ambassador to Argentina Ilan Sztulman. He is expected to focus on economic ties between Israel and the UAE, the first country to enter the Abraham Accords, with a special focus on hi-tech. Former ambassador to Turkey Eitan Na’eh opened the Israeli Embassy in the UAE on Sunday. The Israeli Embassy in Bahrain opened several weeks ago, using what was once a secret Israeli diplomatic office in Manama. Govrin’s and Na’eh’s status as chargés d’affaires is temporary until ambassadors are appointed, which is likely to happen after the next government is formed following the March election.

U.S. announces restoration of relations with Palestinians
UNITED NATIONS (AP)/January 27/2021
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration announced Tuesday it was restoring relations with the Palestinians and renewing aid to Palestinian refugees, a reversal of the Trump administration’s cutoff and a key element of its new support for a two-state solution to the decades-old conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.Acting U.S. Ambassador Richard Mills made the announcement of Biden’s approach to a high-level virtual Security Council meeting, saying the new U.S. administration believes this “remains the best way to ensure Israel’s future as a democratic and Jewish state while upholding the Palestinians’ legitimate aspirations for a state of their own and to live with dignity and security.”President Donald Trump’s administration provided unprecedented support to Israel, recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv, slashing financial assistance for the Palestinians and reversing course on the illegitimacy of Israeli settlements on land claimed by the Palestinians.
Israel captured east Jerusalem and the West Bank in the 1967 war. The international community considers both areas to be occupied territory, and the Palestinians seek them as parts of a future independent state. Israel has built a far-flung network of settlements that house nearly 700,000 Jewish settlers in the West Bank and Jerusalem since their capture in 1967. The peace plan unveiled by Trump a year ago envisions a disjointed Palestinian state that turns over key parts of the West Bank to Israel, siding with Israel on key contentious issues including borders and the status of Jerusalem and Jewish settlements. It was vehemently rejected by the Palestinians. Mills made clear the Biden administration’s more even-handed approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“Under the new administration, the policy of the United States will be to support a mutually agreed two-state solution, one in which Israel lives in peace and security alongside a viable Palestinian state,” he said. Mills said peace can’t be imposed on either side and stressed that progress and an ultimate solution require the participation and agreement of Israelis and Palestinians. “In order to advance these objectives, the Biden administration will restore credible U.S. engagement with Palestinians as well as Israelis,” he said. “This will involve renewing U.S. relations with the Palestinian leadership and Palestinian people,” Mills said.
“President Biden has been clear that he intends to restore U.S. assistance programs that support economic development programs and humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people, and to take steps to reopen diplomatic relations that were closed by the last U.S. administration,.” Mills said.
Trump cut off funding for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency known as UNRWA, which was established to aid the 700,000 Palestinians who fled or were forced from their homes during the war surrounding Israel’s establishment in 1948. It provides education, health care, food and other assistance to some 5.5 million refugees and their descendants in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, as well as Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. The U.S. was UNRWA’s major donor and the loss of funds has created a financial crisis for the agency.
The Trump administration closed the office of the Palestine Liberation Organization in Washington in September 2018, effectively shutting down the Palestinians’ diplomatic mission to the United States.
Mills said the United States hopes to start working to slowly build confidence on both sides to create an environment to reach a two-state solution.
To pursue this goal, Mills said, “the United States will urge Israel’s government and the Palestinians to avoid unilateral steps that make a two-state solution more difficult, such as annexation of territory, settlement activity, demolitions, incitement to violence, and providing compensation for individuals in prison for acts of terrorism.”Israel has accused the Palestinians of inciting violence and has vehemently objected to the Palestinian Authority paying families of those imprisoned for attacking or killing Israelis.
Mills stressed that “the U.S. will maintain its steadfast support for Israel” -- opposing one-sided resolutions and other actions in international bodies that unfairly single out Israel and promoting Israel’s standing and participation at the U.N. and other international organizations.
The Biden administration welcomes the recent normalization of relations between Israel and a number of Arab nations and will urge other countries to establish ties, Mills said. “Yet, we recognize that Arab-Israeli normalization is not a substitute for Israeli-Palestinian peace,” he said. Mills stressed that the fraught state of Israeli-Palestinian politics, and the fact that trust between the two sides “is at a nadir,” don’t relieve U.N. member nations “of the responsibility of trying to preserve the viability of a two-state solution.” Before Mills spoke, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad Malki sharply criticized the Trump administration for using “the United States’ might and influence to support Israel’s unlawful efforts to entrench its occupation and control” and reiterated Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ hopes “for the resumption of relations and positive engagement.”
“Now is the time to heal and repair the damage left by the previous U.S. administration,” he said. “We look forward to the reversal of the unlawful and hostile measures undertaken by the Trump administration and to working together for peace.” Malki called for revival of the Quartet of Mideast mediators -- the U.S., U.N., European Union and Russia -- and reiterated Abbas’ call for an international peace conference “that can signal a turning point in this conflict.” He also expressed hope that “the U.S. will play an important role in multilateral efforts for peace in the Middle East.”
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow is convinced that the Quartet, working closely with both sides and Arab states, “can play a very, very effective role.”
In support of Abbas’ call for an international conference, Lavrov proposed holding a ministerial meeting this spring or summer with the Quartet and Egypt, Jordan, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain as well as Saudi Arabia to analyze the current situation and assist “in launching a dialogue” between Israeli’s and Palestinians. Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit said “Palestinians suffered from unprecedented pressure from the former U.S. administration” and said the organization’s 22 members look forward to Biden correcting Trump’s actions and working with international and regional parties to relaunch “a serious peace process.”But Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Gilad Erdan told the council that instead of focusing on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it should focus on Iran, which “does not try to hide its intention of destroying the world’s only Jewish state.”
On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he suggested that the council discuss what he called “the real obstacles to peace: Palestinian incitement and culture of hate.”
Israel remains willing to make peace “when there is a willing partner,” Erdan said, accusing Abbas of inciting violence, and saying he should come to the negotiating table “without making outrageous demands and not call for another pointless international conference ... (which) is just a distraction.”

Israeli military chief warns of new plans to strike Iran
TEL AVIV (AP)/January 27/2021
Israel’s military chief Tuesday warned the Biden administration against rejoining the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, even if it toughens its terms, adding he’s ordered his forces to step up preparations for possible offensive action against Iran during the coming year.The comments by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi came as Israel and Iran both seek to put pressure on President Joe Biden ahead of his expected announcement on his approach for dealing with the Iranian nuclear program. In Iran, leaders said they would not wait indefinitely for Biden to act.
The 2015 deal put curbs on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the easing of crippling economic sanctions. Israel strongly opposed the deal, saying it did not include sufficient safeguards to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. It welcomed the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the agreement in 2018. Biden has said he will seek to revive the deal, with some changes. In his address to the Institute for National Security Studies, Kohavi said a return to the deal, even with some improvements, “is bad operationally and it is bad strategically.” He said allowing Iran to proceed with a nuclear program would be “an unacceptable threat and will lead to nuclear proliferation across the region.” Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. Kohavi said that given the threat posed by Iran, Israel’s military would be prepared to attack on its own if needed.
“I instructed the army to prepare a number of operational plans in addition to the existing ones,” he said. “We are taking care of these plans and will develop them during the coming year. Those who decide on carrying them out, of course, are the political leaders. But these plans have to be on the table.”
Just hours before Kohavi spoke against a deal, Iran prodded Biden to rejoin the atomic accord. “The window of opportunity will not be open for long,” said Iran’s Cabinet spokesman Ali Rabiei. Israeli officials, including Kohavi, say that Iran is in a much weaker position than in 2015 after years of sanctions by the Trump administration. They say that any new deal should eliminate “sunset” provisions that phase out certain limits on Iran’s nuclear activities, address Iran’s long-range missile program and its military involvement and support for Israel’s enemies across the region. Tensions around Iran have steadily increased. During Trump’s final days as president, Tehran seized a South Korean oil tanker and begun enriching uranium closer to weapons-grade levels, while the U.S. has sent B-52 bombers, the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and a nuclear submarine into the region. Iran has also increased its military drills, including firing cruise missiles as part of a naval drill in the Gulf of Oman this month.Iran has missile capability of up to 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles), far enough to reach Israel and U.S. military bases in the region.

Canada/Minister Garneau speaks with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken
January 26, 2021 – Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
Today, Minister Garneau spoke to his U.S. counterpart, Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Minister Garneau congratulated Secretary Blinken on his confirmation.
Minister Garneau and Secretary Blinken spoke about the importance of the Canada-U.S. bilateral relationship based on mutual respect and our shared priorities, including the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic, protecting supply chains and bilateral trade, the promotion of human rights and democratic values, and ensuring the strength of our collective and bilateral security agreements.
Minister Garneau emphasized the importance of cooperation in areas like the management of the border, vaccines, the movement of critical PPE and personnel, and uninterrupted supply chains so we generate economic growth and create jobs on both sides of the border.
Minister Garneau expressed his disappointment at the cancellation of the presidential permit for the Keystone XL pipeline.
Minister Garneau welcomed the new U.S. administration’s commitment to re-engage with partners in multilateral institutions, particularly in the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement on climate change.
The Minister and the Secretary also agreed to continue to work together on the arbitrary detentions in China of Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.
They look forward to further discussing their expanding cooperation and agreed to remain in close touch.

Canada/Minister of Foreign Affairs announces Canada’s contribution to the United Nations Peacebuilding Fund
January 26, 2021 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Marc Garneau, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today announced Canada’s contribution of $15 million to the UN Peacebuilding Fund while co-chairing the virtual UN Peacebuilding Fund Replenishment Conference, along with the UN Secretary-General, Germany, Sierra Leone and Sudan.
Canada has consistently been among the top donors of the Fund since its inception in 2006. Our support empowers UN entities, local governments, regional organizations, financial institutions and civil society and helps prevent conflict and build peace in fragile states. This includes dialogue and reconciliation, improving human rights protections, justice and security sector reform, and demobilization and reintegration of combatants.
The contributions of Canada and other member states help underpin these efforts through predictable, sustained funding.
Quotes
“Despite financial challenges, we must do better to prevent conflict and build peace by addressing tensions and injustice before the result in violence. We cannot afford to wait. Canada’s leadership at the UN Peacebuilding Commission and with the UN Peacebuilding Fund helps advance inclusive approaches to better prevent conflict, as well as build and sustain peace.”
Marc Garneau, Minister of Foreign Affairs
Quick facts
To date, Canada has contributed over $86 million to the Fund since its inception in 2006, placing Canada consistently among the top ten donors.
In 2019-20, Canada contributed more than $165 million toward peace and stability in more than 30 fragile countries. This funding helped support mediation, transitional justice and inclusive peace processes.
As the 2020 Chair of the UN Peacebuilding Commission, Canada has advocated for sustained and predictable resources to be dedicated to countries’ peacebuilding priorities.
The Peacebuilding Fund places great importance on gender equality, and engaging women and youth throughout its work.
The Fund also plays a crucial role in the UN’s shift towards prevention, the UN’s comprehensive response to COVID-19, and integrating work by development, human rights, peace and security partners.
Canada will continue to advocate for concrete action and commitments from UN Member States, as well as partners such as the World Bank and civil society

Canada/Statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs on International Holocaust Remembrance Day
January 27, 2021 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Marc Garneau, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement:
“Today, we honour the more than 6 million Jews who were brutally murdered by the Nazi regime and its collaborators. We honour the countless Romani; members of the LGBTQ2I community; persons with disabilities; and political dissidents who were persecuted and killed, as well as all those who stood against the Nazi atrocities.
“The Shoah was a period of monstrous injustice and human suffering that mercifully came to an end with the end of the Second World War. But we know that the scourge of antisemitism is still with us today.
“Last November, the Prime Minister named Irwin Cotler as Canada’s special envoy on preserving Holocaust remembrance and combatting antisemitism. Mr. Cotler’s mandate underscores the fact that remembering past horrors is a critically important part of resisting atrocities today and in the future. In this role, Mr. Cotler leads Canada’s delegation to the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) and will work with IHRA partner countries to strengthen and promote Holocaust education, remembrance and research in Canada and around the world.
“Today, Canada is announcing $2 million in funding to support a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization initiative to prevent genocide. Delivered in conjunction with the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, this initiative addresses the rise of antisemitism and other forms of hate and discrimination through education and intercultural dialogue.
“Canada is committed to the promotion and protection of human rights at home and abroad. On this important day, we remember and stand with the victims of the Holocaust and with all who strive for justice, human rights and dignity.”

Voting on Arab League top position to test Egypt, Qatar ties as uncertainties still envelop relations

The Arab Weekly/Wednesday 27/01/2021
Qatar hints at reservations over renewing Aboul Geit's term in office.
CAIRO - Doha’s position on whether to nominate Ahmed Aboul Gheit for a second term as Arab League secretary-general will be a serious test of whether Egyptian-Qatari relations have thawed, especially after a tweet by former Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani calling for "pulling the Arab League from its sad and miserable situation and pumping new blood into it."His remarks were seen in Cairo as a hint at possible Qatari opposition to renewing Abou Geit's term in office. Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim wrote on Twitter that if “hope materialises in the coming days and weeks towards a serious redirection towards rebuilding the Gulf Cooperation Council in a way that ends the state of division, puts the relationship between its member countries in their proper context and ensures a real Gulf breakthrough, then this will undoubtedly contribute to pulling the Arab League from the sad and miserable situation where it has been for decades.” He called for "new blood, a new spirit, and new policies into the Arab League, that would be based on a philosophy that is detached from the individual policies of the member states of the League, puts Arab public interest first, and makes sure the Arab League is not a place to honour retirees, with all due respect and appreciation for some of them." Analysts say that such tweets are usually carefully drafted and can be construed as an indication of an official stance, even if the account holder does not seem to hold an official position.
The former Qatari prime minister's words suggest the tweet comes in the context of a Gulf and Arab stance in favour of reforming the league, and are not just an expression of Qatar's demand. This post was interpreted as an expression of Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim's opposition to renewing the Egyptian candidate's term in office and as indicating that Qatar's position towards Egypt has not changed despite the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
In 2016, Qatar objected to the candidacy of the current secretary-general and tried to mobilise a number of Arab countries to support its effort to prevent him from obtaining a quorum needed to secure the position. At the time, there was a tug of war within the corridors of the league between Qatar and Egypt. The situation was resolved after Saudi Arabia intervened and pressured Doha to soften its position. Signs of a serious boycott between Egypt and Qatar had not emerged yet at that time. Egyptian analysts expect Doha to revert to its initial position on Aboul Gheit when Egypt resubmits his candidacy for the position, especially as the recent reconciliation drive between the two countries has not fully dispelled the lingering mistrust between them. Cairo is still not reassured about the fundamentals of reconciliation with Doha, and expects Qatar to engage in manoeuvres aimed at deflecting attention. Under the pretext of commitment to reform, the Arab League file may be a means for Qatar to lower Egypt's expectations regarding the Muslim Brotherhood issue based on the reconciliation process.
Political sources confirmed to the Arab Weekly that Cairo has decided to re-nominate Ambassador Ahmed Aboul Gheit for Arab League secretary-general for a second five-year term, as his first term expires in June. Egypt believes Aboul Gheit has a better chance than any other candidate to secure the position, and there is no reason now to put forward other Egyptian candidates. The same sources added that Egypt intends to contact Arab member states about this matter, and will send official presidential messages in the coming days to secure support for the renewal of Aboul Gheit's term, hoping to obtain clear positive responses before the Arab summit that is to be held in Algeria next March, and hence block any attempts to disrupt the renewal momentum, as happened in the last session. The situation has remained ambiguous since the Algiers summit, which was postponed last year and then canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic. Egypt hopes to avoid this kind of situation this time around, perhaps by holding the meeting online, if it is not possible to hold it directly, and hence make a vote on Aboul Gheit's nomination possible. In the event that it is not possible to approve the candidacy of the the Arab League chief at the summit, Arab leaders could authorise their foreign ministers to hold a meeting at the ministerial level to discuss the matter before the current secretary-general's first term in office expires. Former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister Ambassador Hassan Haridi stressed that the secretary-general's candidacy is subject to political consensus among Arab leaders, and is not subject to diplomatic intervention below the presidential level. He pointed out there may be candidates from other countries, but in the end, the position will go to whoever draws the greatest consensus. Haridi further told the Arab Weekly that “Qatar's hinting through a current or former official of its rejection of the Egyptian candidate or the nomination of a Qatari personality is not new, and Cairo has already withdrawn one of its candidates in the past (Mustafa Al-Feki before nominating Nabil Al-Arabi) in search of Arab consensus.”

Pro-Iran psywar in Iraq aims to shake confidence in Kadhimi

The Arab Weekly/Wednesday 27/01/2021
Pro-Iranian Shia parties and militias in Iraq have mobilised their significant resources to fill social media sites up with false information and forged documents about ongoing developments on the ground.

BAGHDAD--Pro-Iranian Shia parties and militias in Iraq are waging a psychological war aimed at shaking the public’s confidence in the government by circulating false information and sharing forged documents about the country’s security situation and alleged appointments and dismissals of individuals holding sensitive government positions. These parties and militias have mobilised their significant resources to fill social media sites up with false information and forged documents about ongoing developments on the ground. The deceitful manoeuvres have been used to spread false news about supposed sleeper suicide cells in Baghdad, bombings that hit a popular market in the centre of the capital, the dismissal of a prominent interior ministry official and the alleged appointment of an assistant to direct the prime minister’s office. In each case, the Shia parties and militias have mobilised electronic armies to circulate false information and forged documents on Facebook and Twitter. A forged document published in pro-Iranian Shia media claiming that dozens of suicide bombers had entered Baghdad to carry out attacks on mosques, markets and government departments wreaked terror among city residents.
The electronic armies supported this forged document by sharing a video showing a person wearing an explosive belt surrendering himself to security forces in Baghdad. The electronic armies associated with the Shia groups claimed the video documented an operation that took place at dawn on Tuesday in Baghdad, prompting the country’s Security Media Cell to issue an urgent clarification.
Cyber armies at work
The Security Media Cell issued a statement saying the “news are completely untrue and false, and that the video clips and pictures circulating on social media are of a suicide terrorist who surrendered himself in 2014 to the security forces.” The Security Media Cell called on “bloggers and the media that circulated these news to be careful when sharing information by relying on official sources exclusively.” The electronic armies linked to the Shia groups are also apparently trying to twist the truth about the dismissal of Abu Ali al-Basri, a counterterrorism intelligence official in the interior ministry.
Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi removed Basri from his position after the Falcons cell he headed failed to prevent an attack on Tayaran Square last Thursday in which dozens of people were killed and wounded. The electronic armies published dozens of reports on social network platforms claiming Basri had not actually been dismissed and was continuing his work, despite the fact that his successor, Hamid al-Shatri, had already begun his job. In another attempt to disseminate misinformation, the electronic armies created a forged document stating that a relative of Judge Raed Juhi, who is the director of the prime minister’s office, had been appointed to a senior position within the office. Kadhimi’s office later confirmed that the document was forged and called on the media to be careful when reporting on such issues. Although the electronic armies relied on false and unfounded information, they managed to spread terror and raise doubts about Kadhimi’s leadership capabilities. Intelligence officials say that Iran has recruited hundreds of members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), who are mainly members of well-known militias such as Kata’ib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Harakat al-Nujaba, to work within electronic armies that target Tehran’s opponents on social media. Information documented by intelligence officials with conclusive evidence indicate that Iran used the PMF’s financial budget to train hundreds within the PMF in Baghdad and Beirut to engage in electronic psychological warfare, spreading false information and sharing forged documents in order to destabilise the country’s security situation and stir political unrest.
As soon as the false reports are spread by Iran’s electronic armies, leaders of Shia parties and militias rush to engage with the rumours, until the truth emerges and becomes difficult to deny. This pattern was followed with when Saudi Arabia announced investment plans in the Iraqi desert. Qais Khazali, leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, and Nuri al-Maliki, leader of the Dawa Party, spread fake reports about Riyadh allegedly intending to steal Iraq’s groundwater. Intelligence officials say that elements of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement are working from Baghdad to run organised operations to spread rumours, false information and forged documents on Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp groups, supported by analysts via satellite channels affiliated with an Iranian TV association based in Tehran. Iran’s cyber armies monitor Twitter’s top graphics trends on a daily basis, and publish thousands of tweets as part of coordinated campaigns throughout the day that take advantage of those susceptible to fake news in Iraq that has largely lost confidence in the political class.

Biden Freezes UAE, Saudi Arms Sales for Review
Agence France Presse/January 27/2021
U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has temporarily frozen a massive package of F-35 jets to the United Arab Emirates and arms to Saudi Arabia for further review, officials said Wednesday. A State Department spokesperson said the freeze is meant to ensure that "U.S. arms sales meet our strategic objectives of building stronger, interoperable and more capable security partners."
 

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 27-28/2021

What Zarif’s words should tell President Biden about the JCPOA
Saeed Ghasseminejad/The Hill/January 27/2021
Excerpt
On the anniversary of Qassem Soleimani’s death, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif gave an interview in which he highlighted his close relationship to the late commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ expeditionary and dark-arts branch, the Quds Force. Zarif said he and Soleimani coordinated their regional tasks and projects. Zarif also offered insight into the clerical regime’s strategy for handling the Biden administration: He denied there was going to be any JCPOA 2 and 3, meaning the regime will not negotiate any follow-on agreements to the 2015 nuclear deal (known by the acronym JCPOA) that limit Iran’s missile program and regional policies.
This is a serious problem for Biden, since he justifies his pledge to rejoin the flawed JCPOA — and, in doing so, lift sanctions — by insisting that he will pursue a tougher follow-on deal. Rather than pursuing that futile objective, Biden should employ the leverage generated by Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign to insist the clerical regime accept restraints on its missile program and regional policies before any sanctions come off.
In his interview, Zarif made clear the regime understands the coercive power of sanctions. He said, after the JCPOA, Tehran’s first priority was to develop a “resistance economy,” which is effectively sanctions-proof. Popularized by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, this concept focuses on encouraging the domestic production of goods, thereby diminishing the country’s reliance on oil exports to finance the purchase of foreign goods. It also emphasizes finding reliable allies to help Iran bypass potential sanctions. To that end, Tehran’s economic diplomacy entails creating division among western countries, as well as working with Russia, China, and other states to prevent the imposition of further sanctions on Tehran. The regime also cultivates close ties to groups and factions in the West which are ideologically more aligned with Tehran’s worldview.
*Dr. Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (@FDD), specializing in Iran’s economy and financial markets, sanctions and illicit finance. Follow him on Twitter @SGhasseminejad. FDD is a nonprofit, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) research institute focusing on foreign policy and national security. FDD does not accept donations from foreign governments.

Why “Anything But Trump” Should Not Be Biden’s Foreign Policy Mantra
John Hannah and David Adesnik/The National Interest/January 27/2021
Trump made many errors, but there are some policies that are worth building upon.
Getting the incoming administration of President Joe Biden to acknowledge Donald Trump’s foreign policy accomplishments was always going to be an uphill battle. In part, that’s just par for the course. Especially since the end of the Cold War, a pattern has developed by which presidents of the opposing party tend to look askance at anything their immediate predecessor did. With Trump, of course, that partisan impulse has been super-charged by four years of serial abominations by an unchained narcissist. His outrages, large and small. The incessant norm shattering. The sheer lack of basic decency.
And all that was before Trump devoted the final months of his term to a frequently delusional, but always dangerous assault on America’s constitutional order—culminating in the shocking spectacle of the President of the United States stoking a frenzied mob to violently storm the seat of American democracy and attack a co-equal branch of government in his name. Against that backdrop, if the Biden team’s instinct to recoil from Trump’s legacy was already strong before January 6, 2021, it was probably damn near overwhelming afterwards.
We get it. But as the co-editors of a just-published collection of twenty-five essays assessing Trump’s record on a range of critical national security issues, we’ve also concluded that adopting some version of ABT, or “Anything But Trump,” would be a serious mistake. While the contributors to From Trump to Biden: The Way Forward For U.S. National Security collectively found no shortage of areas where Trumpism abroad, otherwise known as “America First,” stumbled or outright failed, they also identified a number of his administration’s policies that advanced important U.S. national interests, and are worthy of being built upon.
Trump’s foreign policy deficiencies are no doubt well known to Biden and require little elaboration here. Even a partial list is long: The gratuitous insults of longstanding democratic allies and questioning of solemn treaty commitments. The flattery of tyrants and disregard for human rights. The sudden and irresponsible withdrawal of troops from key military theaters. An oftentimes shambolic decision-making process marked by chaos, flip flops, and deep contradictions between Trump and his top advisors.
Harder to acknowledge for the Biden team—though new Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an admirable effort in his confirmation hearing—will be Trump’s successes, and those areas where his administration’s policies have left the United States better positioned to secure its interests. Three of the outgoing administration’s achievements, in particular, deserve highlighting—at least in part because they represent sharp breaks from the policies of the Obama administration, in which Biden and most of his top advisors played such central roles.
China. The Trump administration put a decisive end to decades of misguided attempts by administrations of both parties to convert the Chinese Communist Party into a so-called responsible stakeholder in the American-led international order. Instead, it unambiguously identified China as the United States’ fiercest geopolitical rival and most serious international threat. And it began the long overdue process of putting in place a concerted national strategy to contest and constrain Chinese power across all domains—diplomatic, economic, military, technological, and ideological.
Biden’s team has made clear they believe Trump’s China policy needs adjusting—including working more with allies, elevating human rights, making greater investments in domestic sources of U.S. power, and developing a more vigorous diplomatic track with Beijing to avoid miscalculation and carve out areas for possible cooperation. All well and good. But none of those tactical changes should alter the Biden administration’s full-throated adoption of their predecessor’s central insight: Winning the strategic competition with China, without blowing up or impoverishing the world in the process, is the defining challenge of U.S. foreign policy in the twenty-first century. In that regard, Blinken’s unsolicited acknowledgement that “President Trump was right in taking a tougher approach to China” was a good start.
Middle East peace. Blinken also made clear that the incoming administration appreciates Trump’s most unambiguous diplomatic success—the historic peace deals brokered between Israel and several Arab states. In doing so, Trump defied longstanding conventional wisdom—articulated most vociferously by one of Blinken’s old bosses, former Secretary of State John Kerry—that held such deals to be impossible absent a final resolution of the Palestinian conflict. While relations had been warming between Israel and many of its neighbors for years, the Trump administration early on made their further advancement a major priority and skillfully seized the opportunity that arose in 2020 to negotiate a series of normalization agreements, known as the Abraham Accords. There is every reason to believe that additional breakthroughs are in the offing—including with Saudi Arabia, the Muslim’s world’s most influential state—but achieving them will require sustained U.S. focus and support. An important moment now exists for American diplomacy to restructure the geostrategic map of the Middle East in ways enormously beneficial to U.S. interests. Biden should not let it pass.
Iran. Probably the hardest Trump achievement for the new administration to accept is the enormous leverage that the United States established vis a vis Iran thanks to Trump’s campaign of crippling economic sanctions—made possible, of course, by his controversial decision to trash the Obama administration’s signature foreign policy accomplishment, the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). From Biden and Blinken on down, the new team’s ranks are replete with JCPOA acolytes who have spent the past several years harshly attacking Trump’s withdrawal. While Biden now recognizes that the Iran deal had shortcomings that need to be addressed in follow-on diplomacy, he’s also said that he’s prepared to restore U.S. compliance with the JCPOA if Iran does likewise—a move that would require lifting Trump’s most powerful sanctions preemptively and squandering much of the leverage now available to pressure Iran into a tougher deal. How Biden squares that circle and avoids misplaying the strong hand that he’s inherited will be among the most important foreign policy tests of his term.
Finally, even as it grapples with Trump’s legacy on these specific issues, Biden’s team would be well advised to also take to heart a more fundamental foreign policy lesson of Trump’s presidency: The instinctive appeal that “America First” had to millions of voters convinced that U.S. foreign policy had become the story of free-trade deals that sent manufacturing jobs overseas, free-loading allies, and endless wars. Trump understood that popular discontent with the so-called “Washington foreign policy consensus” and shamelessly exploited it with his destructive blend of nationalism, isolationism, protectionism, and unilateralism. Whatever steps it takes to reverse Trump’s approach to the world, the Biden administration ignores that popular sentiment at its peril.
Interestingly, there are clear signs that the incoming administration is attuned to this concern. Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, helped write a two-year study that was released just before November’s elections with the revealing title, Making U.S. Foreign Policy Work Better For The Middle Class. And at his confirmation hearing, Blinken went out of his way to stress that “in everything we do around the world, I believe that we can and we must ensure that our foreign policy is actually working to deliver for American working families here at home.” If they ultimately succeed in that task, and are able to convince the American public once again that vigorous U.S. international leadership is essential to their own security and prosperity, it would indeed be one of the greatest foreign policy accomplishments that President Biden could leave to his eventual successor.
*John Hannah is senior counselor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He formerly served as national security advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney and as an advisor to Secretaries of State Warren Christopher and James Baker. *David Adesnik is a senior fellow and director of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow David on Twitter @adesnik. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Iran is totally confused on how to approach Biden - analysis
Seith J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/January 27/2021
The Islamic Republic relies on a keen understanding of the West to make policy.
One word we haven’t heard about Iran lately is “hardliners.” That may be due to the fact that the Iran lobby in the US has not received its talking points and marching orders.
In the old days of the lead up to the JCPOA or “Iran deal,” we were presented with a narrative of “a deal or war.” This bizarre and false story claimed that those who opposed a “deal” want war. No other country in the world requires a “deal” to stop it from deploying nuclear threats.
Nevertheless the Iranian regime’s decision to hold back the story of “moderates” and “hardliners” as a way to convince the West that there could be a “war” illustrates how confused the regime is by the incoming Biden administration.
Iran relies on a keen understanding of the West to make policy. It knows that if it holds up a bogeyman of “nuclear weapons” while also claiming that it has issued a “fatwa” against nuclear weapons, it can create a strange contradictory narrative in which it is run by “moderates” but that “hardliners” might come to power if the West doesn’t do everything Tehran wants.
And what does Tehran want? Even Tehran doesn’t know what its end goal is with the nuclear program. What it does want is an end to sanctions. The deal is just a talking point because Iran’s assessment is that Western countries like “deals” and “agreements” and zero sum games of “we got this” and “we made peace,” so they can say they “accomplished” something.
Iran understands that Western leaders value photo ops and lip service more than reality on the ground.
FOR THE regime and its experts, some of whom were educated in the West, this carrot and stick approach of hardliners and moderates has worked in the past. But what is Biden up to, the Iranians wonder today. Biden has talked with European officials, the regime in Tehran knows. The talks “were related to the Iran nuclear deal,” Tasnim News says in Tehran.
But Iran’s media relies on Arabic media for information on these talks, Tasnim notes. “Biden is trying to start direct talks with Tehran through European mediators and re-establish this communication channel.” This report is a major insight into Tehran’s thinking and confusion.
Iran is also watching US Central Command. A new US carrier is coming on station. Rumors of threats by Iranian IRGC fast boats are held out as a possible way to threaten the US and allies. “The US commander claimed that the new administration in Washington intends to review US policy,” Tasnim says.
“Statements by Western officials and the media about [the deal] seem positive these days," it says. "As European officials have said for years, they have made relatively positive statements and positions on the nuclear deal, but in practice they have had no way out for Iran. The statements of the American officials have not had any practical support so far and have been just words and gestures.”
This is Iran’s way of saying that they are totally confused by Biden’s team.
In the old days of 2014, Iran understood that the Obama administration needed a deal to get a win. So Iran held out some complex regional desires to get there. Tehran would cement control of Iraq with Nouri al-Maliki. It would get the US to go soft on Hezbollah’s international networks. Washington should shift focus on Syria away from toppling Assad and toward a political solution. Russia could be brought into Syria in a more serious way, Qasem Soleimani told officials in Iran.
Iran judged this correctly. By 2015, the US was in eastern Syria with the SDF fighting ISIS, Russia was flying warplanes into Khmeimim – and soon Moscow would host the Astana talks and remove the US from the Syria equation. Iran would cement the PMU of Shia militias in Iraq in power. Saudi Arabia would intervene in Yemen in 2015 and Iran would send its technology to the Houthis. The JCPOA would be signed. Obama’s team would be hostile to Israeli and Saudi complains. Mission accomplished.
TEAM BIDEN is more confusing, because there is no Ben Rhodes or John Kerry statements for Iran to refer to. Kerry and Rhodes appeared to want a US policy shift deeply toward Iran, away from the “Sunnis” and Israel. But so far, Iran is reading tea leaves. “These remarks have not been of much benefit to the country, except for the purpose of intensifying the internal divide in Iran," Tansim said. "As many of our country's officials have emphasized, a nuclear deal requires action and will – more than words and paper.”
More concerns follow. “Recent developments in the United States and Europe seem to be pursuing a common goal, which is to create a platform in which other issues can be discussed," it said. "The West is now looking at the issue one-sidedly, rather than reviving the interests of the parties – including Iran – in the Iran Deal, and is simply seeking to impose more restrictions on our country.
"In such circumstances, it is expected that the Iranian authorities will not be deceived by the West. Any game on the opponent's field, due to lack of accurate calculation, can cause some people inside to become the mediators of Western pressure on the Iranian people.”
So Iran has demands. “What our officials, including the Supreme Leader, have emphasized is that the return of the United States will be meaningful when the sanctions are lifted in practice… It imposed sanctions on Iran… so the lifting of sanctions means all of this, not just the lifting of new Trump-era sanctions,” the report says.
IRAN IS cold to a new agreement. “It should be noted that changing the label and trying to change the nature of such sanctions is not a sound argument for not lifting them, so Europe and the United States should lift all sanctions if they return, and none of them should be subject to new provisions or conditions," Tansim said. "Any new terms and conditions, or the refusal to lift some of these sanctions, will essentially mean a new agreement or renegotiation of the [Iran Deal], which our country's policy has been to oppose.”
The article notes: “The West seeks to use some of the sanctions as leverage to pressure Tehran in order to gain huge concessions by depriving Iran of all elements of its power and making it surrender. Satisfying to lift some, not all, of the related sanctions is to help the Western campaign and ease its future pressures.
"If Europe and the United States want to return to the nuclear deal, none of the sanctions [can be reinstated] – and the Trump-era sanctions and the sanctions that have been added to the new label should not remain in place.”
In short, Iran is driving a hard bargain. Note that in this discussion the supposed need for a nuclear program is not discussed. Iran’s nuclear program is largely a bogeyman designed to get the US to beg Iran to do things. It is a kind of blackmail. No other country does this, but Iran’s use of this blackmail is only because it was able to get its friends in the West to push a narrative of “we need a deal or there will be war.”
Iran can’t afford a war, so the story of a “war” was entirely a myth. The real story of Iran’s demands is wrapped up in sanctions relief and its demand for more of a role with militias and proxies throughout the region. It seeks regional dominance, while its own country has largely been bankrupted.
 

Growing concern in Israel over appointment of Malley as US rep. to Iran
Herb Keinon/Jerusalem Post/January 27/2021
According to former Israeli officials who over the years have worked with Malley, for Israel this appointment would not be good news.
The Jewish anti-Israel co-head of the radical left-wing group Code Pink, Ariel Gold, supports the appointment of Robert Malley as the next US special representative to Iran.
As does columnist Peter Beinart, who no longer believes in a Jewish state; Iranian nuclear deal cheerleader and echo chamber creator Ben Rhodes; and Sen. Bernie Sanders, Democrat from Vermont.
And all that says something. One of the things it says – according to former Israeli officials who over the years have worked with Malley – is that for Israel, this appointment would not be good news.
Malley, currently the CEO and president of the Brussels-headquartered International Crisis Group, was mentioned last week in the website Jewish Insider as a possible candidate for the top Iran job in US President Joe Biden’s administration, and this triggered a flurry of debate regarding the appointment.
While Code Pink, Beinart, Rhodes, Sanders and J Street all gushed about it, concern was voiced on the other side of the political divide by Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton and Bloomberg columnist Eli Lake, as well as Americans who were imprisoned in Iran, such as Chinese American Xiyue Wang.
Wang, a Princeton doctoral student arrested in 2016 and only released three years later, said in a Twitter post that when Malley was in the White House, he “played no positive role in facilitating my release” – and that his appointment would send a message to Tehran that Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s testimony during his Senate confirmation hearing, about strengthening the Iranian nuclear deal and standing up for human rights in Iran, “were merely empty words.”
Republican Cotton tweeted: “It’s deeply troubling that President Biden would consider appointing Rob Malley to direct Iran policy. Malley has a long track record of sympathy for the Iranian regime & animus towards Israel. The ayatollahs wouldn’t believe their luck if he is selected.”
Code Pink, predictably, termed this a “backlash from a motley crew of war hawks, both domestic and foreign.”
This type of squabble surrounding the possibility that Malley might be picked was not evident in the selection of any other member to Biden’s top national security team, from Blinken, to his number two, Wendy Sherman, to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. And all of them, like Malley, worked for and whole-heartedly supported the Iranian nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
But Malley is different, said one former senior Israeli diplomatic official, because he is a progressive “ideologue,” while the others are not. This is why the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, like Sanders, are pushing for his appointment. So far, they have not succeeded in landing any top national security position. Malley being tapped on Iran would be a coup.
“Rob Malley is an extremely knowledgeable expert with great experience in promoting US security through diplomacy rather than war,” Sanders posted on Facebook. “He would be an excellent choice for the role of Iran envoy.” Malley reportedly gave Sanders foreign policy advice during the senator’s unsuccessful run for president last year.
AMONG OTHERS who have come out for his appointment are veteran Mideast hand Aaron David Miller and Gilead Sher, Ehud Barak’s chief of staff when he was prime minister.
“Rob Malley will make a superb Iran envoy,” Sher tweeted. “We had our differences over the years, however they affected neither trust nor friendship. Rob is exceptionally knowledgeable, and he knows bargaining w/the devil won’t be an easy task.”
Malley is the son of an Egyptian Jewish journalist – Simon Malley – who lived in the US and France and was a champion in the 1950s, 60s and 70s of Third World liberation movements, including that of the Palestinians.
The younger Malley served in the National Security Council during the Clinton administration, ending up with the title of special assistant to the president for Arab-Israeli affairs. After George W. Bush took office in 2001, Malley went to think tanks, becoming program director for Middle East and North Africa Affairs at the International Crisis Group.
He had an unofficial relationship with the Obama campaign in 2008, but that ended unceremoniously when it was revealed that he held talks with Hamas representatives. Nevertheless, six years later Obama brought him into his National Security Council, first as an adviser to the president on the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf, and then as the council’s point man on dealing with ISIS.
Malley’s position on Iran is clear: He is a strong advocate of rapprochement with the Islamic Republic. He was opposed last year to the assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and was opposed as well to former secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s 12 conditions for lifting sanctions on Tehran.
But that is not the only reason why his name currently elicits low grunts of “oy” in the corridors of power in Jerusalem. He was a negotiator at the Camp David talks in 2000, and afterward was a leading voice saying that Yasser Arafat was not to blame for the breakdown of the talks, but rather that he was merely avoiding falling into a trap.
Former US president Bill Clinton, as well as the head of Clinton’s Mideast peace team Dennis Ross, placed the blame for the failure to conclude a deal at Camp David heavily on Arafat’s shoulders. Malley, however, wrote a much-cited piece in the New York Review of Books with a former Palestinian negotiator, Hussein Agha, seeking to alter that perception.
“He [Malley] is best remembered in Israel as the person who let Arafat off the hook,” said one former senior official. “Malley said that Barak’s offer was not serious, and that Arafat was set up by Barak and Clinton. He let off the hook a man who rejected a genuine peace offer, and then initiated a terrorist war [the Second Intifada] responsible for more than a thousand Israeli deaths.”
Malley’s piece, the official said, “has had a big impact in academia as to what transpired at Camp David, and had an equally big impact on very left-wing Jewish groups.” His piece was the counterpoint to Israel’s “narrative” that it offered peace at Camp David, and got a terrorist war in return.
The Biden administration has so far not commented on a possible Malley appointment, and it is quite possible that the report in the Jewish Insider was a trial balloon floated by an administration official to gauge reaction, or as an attempt by someone to sabotage it.
Either way, officials in Israel, the Gulf and Iran will be watching carefully to see what Biden decides – because whatever decision the new president makes regarding Malley will be, it will send a strong message of his intentions in the region.

The real problem with Robert Malley’s potential Iran envoy appointment
Michael Rubin/The washington Examiner/January 27/2021
Few early Biden administration decisions would be as controversial as the rumored selection of Robert Malley as chief envoy for Iran talks. Code Pink has come to his defense, as has the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party. Conservatives point out that Iranian regime officials also appear to celebrate Malley’s name being in the mix.
On paper, Malley is eminently qualified. He serves as head of the International Crisis Group, is an alum of both the Clinton and Obama administrations, and was a Rhodes Scholar. Make no mistake: I disagree with Malley on almost all issues relating to Iran and the Middle East, and I criticized his approach in my history of U.S. diplomacy with terrorist groups. Still, there are few people in Washington as generally kind, classy, and intelligent as Malley. His supporters, of course, are also right to point out that elections matter.
While it is fair to criticize Malley’s ideas (as opposed to his person), the broad problem with Malley’s appointment is not that he is insufficiently skeptical toward Tehran, but rather that it signals that Biden’s national security team have not learned the lessons of why the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action so quickly derailed.
President Barack Obama made reaching a deal with Iran over its suspect nuclear program his signature foreign policy issue. While liberals and conservatives can argue about its merits — I have been a frequent critic — one reason for the Iran deal’s ultimate fragility was the way in which Obama sought to marginalize Republican concerns rather than build broad domestic consensus in its support. Obama drew a moral equivalence between Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rejectionists and his own domestic critics. Deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes bragged of creating an echo chamber, not only to promote the deal’s merits but also pillory its critics. While Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, and more seasoned members of Obama’s team kept their hands clean, those with whom they repeatedly met would return from White House meetings and amp up vilification of policymakers who raised concerns about the deal’s content. Seldom did they bother to talk quietly to the deal’s critics to assuage their concerns.
Secretary of State John Kerry and negotiator Wendy Sherman, currently the nominee for the No. 2 post in the State Department, never seriously considered negotiating the nuclear deal as a treaty. Perhaps they feared getting Senate ratification would be a bridge too far. Ironically, had they tried, they might have used the Senate standard in their talks as a means to force more concessions, which, in turn, could have won them broader bipartisan support. Instead, the Iran nuclear deal passed the Senate by means of a compromise that meant it, in effect, needed only one-third support, a standard it barely reached. Kerry and Sherman then front-loaded sanctions relief and financial incentives so Tehran got its rewards up front. This meant that America's walking away from the deal could serve no obvious strategic benefit. Of course, the Obama administration never believed that a Republican would beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 and, even if, on some level, they considered it a fleeting possibility, they did not believe that partisan animus, including some they themselves knowingly fanned, would lead to a Republican president walking away from the deal.
Back to the future: Malley might be a gentleman but, both in office and in International Crisis Group programming, he has preferred to quarantine conservative views rather than confront them (full-disclosure: He did participate on an American Enterprise Institute panel a decade ago to address the Arab Spring). He has also remained blind to his own hire’s anti-Semitism or accusations of dual loyalty.
There's a broader point here. Biden talks like a centrist, but his appointees increasingly appear disinclined to govern as such. While it is true that Biden or Secretary of State Blinken can appoint Malley simply by virtue of their electoral victory, to do so without any effort to reach out across the partisan aisle is to condemn the Iran portfolio to remain a partisan football. The country is at its strongest when it confronts foreign policy challenges with a united home front. Obama believed political power trumped consensus. His shortcuts around the treaty process came with a tremendous cost. Whether pro-JCPOA or anti, it is hard not to conclude the result was a political and strategic mess that did little to strengthen our moral or strategic position in the world.
If Biden is to succeed where Obama and President Donald Trump did not, it is time to construct a common strategy at home and address, rather than dismiss, the Iran deal’s critics. Success will never come when negotiators and envoys treat adversaries with more deference than political opponents.

Germany: Meet Angela Merkel's Second Successor, Armin Laschet
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/January 27/2021
"You get the impression that Armin Laschet still believes in a partnership with Putin's Russia. He ignores the fact that there simultaneously is both a geopolitical and a value conflict with Moscow. This conflict requires a certain degree of severity, a policy of deterrence and also a policy of sanctions. It is wishful thinking that all foreign policy conflicts can be resolved through dialogue and goodwill." — Ralf Fücks, former Green Party politician and head of the think tank, Center for Liberal Modernity.
"Mr Laschet's first priority will be uniting the party. It will not be easy. He beat Mr Merz by 53 to 47 per cent of the vote. There is a large minority in the party who want it to take a clearer conservative direction. When he lost the 2018 leadership contest, Mr Merz retreated. This time, he seems determined to weigh on the party's future." — Editorial Board, Financial Times.
"The new CDU chairman faces a difficult task of maintaining coherence in a party that is struggling to find its identity while simultaneously trying to lure voters from the environmentalist Green Party and the right-wing AfD." — Oliver Hackel, senior financial strategist, Kaiser Partner Privatbank.
"German politics is drifting away from Mrs. Merkel's breed of consensus. Despite winning a leadership election among delegates to the CDU party conference, Mr. Laschet's soft foreign-policy views are increasingly at odds with prominent CDU figures who advocate a sterner approach to Russia and China. The Greens are on the rise as a mainstream center-left party on the back of their foreign-policy hawkishness and hostility to crony capitalism at home." — Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal.
Laschet, a Merkel loyalist and continuity candidate, narrowly beat conservative Friedrich Merz by 521 to 466 votes in a run-off vote by party delegates on January 16. The CDU had previously chosen Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer to succeed Merkel, but she stepped down as party leader in January 2020 after a series of regional electoral defeats cast doubt on her ability to retain the chancellorship.
Like Merkel, Laschet is pro-EU, pro-Russia and pro-China. Past statements suggest that he hails from the realist school of international relations, which often prioritizes economic interests over human rights concerns when dealing with authoritarian countries.
Laschet is also a transatlanticist. This implies that Germany will continue to depend on the United States for defense. On the other hand, Laschet is not a climate change fanatic. North Rhine-Westphalia is Germany's biggest coal-producing region and Laschet was instrumental in the recent decision to extend Germany's phase-out of coal-fired power plants until 2038. It therefore seems unlikely that he will take orders from the Biden administration to agree to radical environmental proposals.
Domestically, Laschet supported Merkel's decision in 2015 to allow into the country more than a million migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East, and he is likely to continue her open-door migration policies. On the other hand, he has advocated a hardline approach to the crime caused, in large measure, by the immigration policies he supports.
Laschet is expected to continue to pursue Merkel's foreign and domestic policies. As a result, he is unlikely to reverse the CDU's leftward drift — initiated by Merkel — which has resulted in a mass exodus of conservative voters to the populist party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Long Road Ahead to Chancellorship
There is no guarantee that Laschet, a 59-year-old German of Belgian descent, will become the next chancellor, or that he will even be the CDU's chancellor candidate. Germany's political landscape, with six main parties and more than 30 secondary parties, is highly fractured. As a result, it will be difficult for any one party to obtain an absolute majority in parliament. The Greens are now the second-most popular party in Germany, according to recent polls. Even if the CDU emerges victorious in the national election on September 26, Laschet, in order to retain the chancellorship, almost certainly will be forced to form a coalition government. The Greens are opposed to many of Laschet's positions. If Laschet were unable to forge a governing coalition with the Greens, they may decide to bypass the CDU altogether and negotiate a three-way coalition with the Social Democrats and the radical Left Party. Such a coalition would bring a swift end the continuity espoused by Merkel and Laschet. Laschet also faces considerable opposition from within his own party. Conservative supporters of Merz, as well as members the Christian Social Union (CSU), the CDU's Bavarian sister party, want to push the CDU back to the political right in order to lure back voters from the AfD. CSU leader Markus Söder, who is also the premier of Bavaria, has called for the CDU/CSU alliance to decide on its chancellor candidate only after state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg on March 14. This would leave open the possibility that Söder, who, according to recent polls, is more popular with the German electorate than Laschet, could end up being the candidate for chancellor.
Russia
Laschet has come under fire, especially from the Greens, for past comments in which he defended Russian President Vladimir Putin. In March 2014, at the time that Russia annexed Crimea, Laschet criticized what he described as the "marketable anti-Putin populism" (marktgängigen Anti-Putin-Populismus) in Germany. He added: "Forty percent of the gas that we need for our modern gas-fired power plants comes from Russia."In March 2018, former Russian intelligence agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter were poisoned with the military nerve agent Novichok in England. Western countries responded by deporting Russian diplomats, but Laschet defended Putin. In January 2021, in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Laschet said that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany should proceed as planned, despite the arrest in Russia of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny. He said: "The question of whether gas should reach us by land or by sea is unrelated to Navalny's detention." The Nord Stream 2 project is opposed by many European countries, as well as by both Democrats and Republicans in the United States, because it would increase Germany's energy dependency on Russia.
Laschet has been ridiculed as a "Putin understander" (Putin-Versteher), a pejorative term for appeasers of the Russian strongman. Ralf Fücks, a former Green Party politician who is now head of the Center for Liberal Modernity, a think tank, elaborated:
"You get the impression that Armin Laschet still believes in a partnership with Putin's Russia. He ignores the fact that there simultaneously is both a geopolitical and a value conflict with Moscow. This conflict requires a certain degree of severity, a policy of deterrence and also a policy of sanctions. It is wishful thinking that all foreign policy conflicts can be resolved through dialogue and goodwill."
China
Laschet has been a strong proponent of trade relations with China. More than 1,000 Chinese companies have established a physical presence in North Rhine-Westphalia, including 610 in Düsseldorf, the state capital. Trade between North Rhine-Westphalia and China exceeded 12 billion euros in 2019, the last year for which complete statistics are available. In a September 2020 interview with Politico, Laschet was asked about the link between trade with China and human rights. He responded: "Trade relations always require a political dialogue on human rights. That's true for every country in the world. It's true for Russia, China, Turkey and all the countries of the Arab world. But one can't only pursue trade relations with countries that follow our societal model."
Israel
Laschet is staunchly pro-Israel and has actively cultivated relations with the Jewish state, which does nearly one billion euros a year in trade with North Rhine-Westphalia. In September 2018, his first major overseas trip as state premier was to Israel. During a subsequent visit to Israel in 2020, he opened a representative office in Tel Aviv. At the time he said:
"Our state's office in Tel Aviv is another milestone in the relations between North Rhine-Westphalia and Israel. In no other country does our state have an office with such a comprehensive mission.
"Our office in Israel will bring the cooperation between our two states to a new level. We want to further strengthen the exchange and the meetings between universities and municipal, cultural and educational institutions and civil service groups. That's a sign of our appreciation to our friends in Israel."
In January 2019, Laschet, during a trip to Poland, visited the former German concentration camp at Auschwitz-Birkenau. He was accompanied by 24 Christian, Jewish, and Muslim teenagers and young adults. He said:
"It is an obligation for all of us to keeping the memory of the Shoah alive. For us in North Rhine-Westphalia, home of the largest Jewish community in Germany, the preservation of the memory of the horror of the Nazi era is a personal concern. The unspeakable crimes of the past must be a reminder and a warning to future generations. The lessons from the Shoah must always be at the core of political and historical education in our schools. All students have to deal with it, no matter where they come from or to what religion they belong."
At the same time, however, Laschet expressed dismay at the Trump administration's withdrawal from the controversial nuclear deal with Iran, which, according to many analysts, would have accelerated and legitimized Tehran's acquisition of a nuclear bomb. Laschet was also reluctant to ban Hezbollah, the Iranian terrorist proxy in Lebanon, before the German parliament, facing massive pressure from the Trump administration, agreed to a partial ban of the group in December 2019.
Select Commentary
Veteran European affairs commentator Wolfgang Münchau wrote about the potential difficulties in reaching a coalition deal between Laschet and the Greens:
"Laschet is the closest you get in German politics — outside the AfD — to being a climate change denier. His successful campaign theme was protection of German industry against ambitious climate-change action. Should the Greens and the CDU/CSU ever end up trying to a form a coalition, I would expect very difficult negotiations to follow. The two parties are at the opposite ends of the most important political debate in Germany this decade — on the trajectory towards internationally agreed emissions targets....
"One of the foreseeable conflicts in the relationship between Germany and the EU will be on fiscal policy. The consensus view among international economists might have changed in favor of higher deficits during economic crises. But the debt brake, Germany's balanced-budget debt rule that is firmly anchored in the constitution, is still in force....
"The CDU's innate fiscal conservatism and Laschet's support for coal mining and coal-generated power are formidable obstacles to a CDU/CSU/Green coalition, which may be the only viable governing option after the September elections. I cannot see the Greens signing up to Laschet's agenda."
Author and commentator John Kampfner echoed those concerns:
"It was the 'Merkel Machine' which helped secure the close victory. After a lackluster campaign, Armin Laschet hobbled over the line for the leadership of Germany's largest party, the CDU, thanks to some last-minute lobbying and arm-twisting from the chancellor and her aides behind the scenes. After 16 years at the helm and at the center of German politics, Angela Merkel was not going to see her party hijacked by a rival dedicated to a harsher variant of conservatism....
"The problem for Laschet is that many in his own party don't want to work with him, and the CDU is in desperate need of energy. The narrow 53% to 47% run-off demonstrates the challenge he faces winning over party members many of whom have been uncomfortable with Merkel's centrist course despite her four election victories.
"The right wing have a big decision to make. Will they bury the hatchet and fall in behind Laschet? If they don't, then Laschet would face considerable pressure to stand aside as the party's candidate for chancellor. That would leave the path open for Markus Söder, the popular leader of Bavaria and head of the Christian Social Union, the CDU's sister party."
The Editorial Board of the Financial Times wrote:
"The party gambled on continuity rather than a shift to the right under closest rival Friedrich Merz. Mr Laschet, the regional premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, represents the kind of open centrism that enabled Ms Merkel to notch up four consecutive election victories. The CDU is riding high in the polls ahead of federal elections on September 26. But it will soon have to do without Ms Merkel, its greatest asset.
"Mr Laschet is now the frontrunner to succeed Ms Merkel as chancellor but that is far from guaranteed. The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, are due to decide in March who will run as their joint candidate. Many doubt whether he has the skills and profile to lead a national campaign. Mr Laschet will need to assert himself quickly to cement his chances. He could still lose out to Bavarian premier Markus Söder who is far more popular.
"Mr Laschet's first priority will be uniting the party. It will not be easy. He beat Mr Merz by 53 to 47 per cent of the vote. There is a large minority in the party who want it to take a clearer conservative direction. When he lost the 2018 leadership contest, Mr Merz retreated. This time, he seems determined to weigh on the party's future."
Oliver Hackel, senior financial strategist for the Liechtenstein-based Kaiser Partner Privatbank, struck a more optimistic note about Laschet:
"Laschet has been more of a 'Merkelist' and more committed to her triangulating centrist style of politics than practically any other high-ranking CDU politician.
"However, whether 59-year-old Laschet will actually get a chance to follow in Merkel's footsteps and stand as the CDU's candidate for chancellor in the Bundestag elections on September 26 won't be decided until March, when the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), will choose who will run as their joint candidate. CSU head Markus Söder, who enjoys much greater popularity at the moment, could thwart Laschet's ambitions. According to a poll cited by German broadcaster Deutsche Welle, 43% percent of voters would like to see Söder succeed Angela Merkel, whereas only 12% favor Laschet. Yet, if past is prelude, the Bavarian branch of the CDU and Mr. Söder are likely to give in and back down if push comes to shove for the good of both parties. This, at least, is the most probable scenario as things currently stand....
"The new CDU chairman faces a difficult task of maintaining coherence in a party that is struggling to find its identity while simultaneously trying to lure voters from the environmentalist Green Party and the right-wing AfD....
"Germany's Christian Democrats are thus betting on continuity rather than on a lurch to the right under Friedrich Merz. Whereas an election campaign led by Merz would have advocated for distinctly conservative fiscal and monetary policy stances, the supertanker Germany with Laschet at the helm is likely to stay on a course similar to the current one in the tow of Angela Merkel."
The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal, espousing a contrarian view, concluded:
"German politics is drifting away from Mrs. Merkel's breed of consensus. Despite winning a leadership election among delegates to the CDU party conference, Mr. Laschet's soft foreign-policy views are increasingly at odds with prominent CDU figures who advocate a sterner approach to Russia and China. The Greens are on the rise as a mainstream center-left party on the back of their foreign-policy hawkishness and hostility to crony capitalism at home.
"All of which highlights the risk to the CDU that 'boring' might run out of steam as a political and policy strategy sooner than expected. The next chancellor will face China's strategic rise, the continuing economic fallout from Covid-19 and Brexit, shifting priorities in Washington, and other crises as yet unknown. More of the Merkel method probably can win an election in October [sic] given the many divisions in Germany's electorate, but it won't be much of a solution to these or other challenges.
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Turkey and Greece: Still More Peace Talks
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/January 27/2021
Ankara and Athens, starting in 2002, held 60 rounds of talks before their exploratory efforts came to a halt in 2016. After a five-year-long pause the rivals agreed to resume talks on January 25, starting the 61st round.
"The idea that a strategic — so-called strategic — partner of ours would actually be in line with one of our biggest strategic competitors in Russia is not acceptable." — Antony Blinken, President Joe Biden's then-nominee for Secretary of State, Arab News, January 26, 2021.
"Turkey has adopted a strongly militaristic approach, making efforts toward conflict resolution increasingly unlikely." — Dimitris Tsarouhas, a professor of international relations, a Scientific Council member of the Foundation for European Progressive Studies in Brussels, and a World Bank consultant, Arab News, January 26, 2021.
When traditional Aegean rivals, Turkey and Greece, agreed to launch "exploratory talks" to resolve their disputes, Iraq's president was Saddam Hussein, U.S. President George W. Bush called for a regime change in Iraq, 9/11 was only months in the past, the euro had just become the official currency of 12 of the European Union's members, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter had been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and the Mars Odyssey had found signs of water ice deposits on Mars.
Ankara and Athens, starting in 2002, held 60 rounds of talks before their exploratory efforts came to a halt in 2016. After a five-year-long pause, the rivals agreed to resume talks on January 25, starting the 61st round. Rounds 61 and onward will probably be the most fragile of all peace talks for a number of reasons.
The talks had a bumpy start. According to Bloomberg, Turkey and Greece disagreed on the scope of January 25 talks. The Turkish government wants to discuss a range of outstanding issues with its fellow NATO member, but Athens has repeatedly said that it will only discuss maritime border delineation. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu accused Greece of raising obstacles to exploratory talks and trying to undermine the process for a thaw between the two countries. "It is not right to say that we are holding exploratory talks by narrowing the subjects to one issue," Çavuşoğlu said at a joint news conference with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas in Ankara.
That was not a good start. As opposed to Athens' one-issue-only agenda, Ankara wants to bring several issues to the table, such as the continental shelf, airspace, territorial waters, demilitarization of Greek islands and islets, air traffic centers, and exclusive economic zones (EEZ), in addition to the broader territorial disputes around Cyprus.
After a three-hour first meeting in Istanbul, Turkey and Greece agreed to "explore more." The next round of exploratory talks will be held in Athens. In a tweet after the meeting, Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalın said: "It is possible to solve all problems, including the Aegean." That looks like premature optimism.
According to Nikos Filis, director of Research Programs of the International Affairs Institute, Ankara's turn to the West is nothing but a tactical move not altogether to disrupt [shaky] relations with the West.
After the EU leaders gave Turkey an unambiguous warning in October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan chose to escalate tensions, bringing what otherwise would have been mere diplomatic issues to the level of a mini-clash of civilizations. In response, at a summit on December 10-11, EU leaders agreed to impose sanctions on an unspecified number of Turkish officials and entities involved in gas drilling in Cypriot-claimed waters -- but they deferred the bigger decisions such as trade tariffs until they consult with the new U.S. administration of President Joe Biden. At the December summit, EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell was tasked to prepare proposals on a broader approach to Turkey by March, giving the EU time to consult with Biden's national security team.
That window gave Erdogan a short, temporary relief. But in March, he will face a less patient EU leadership. Initial signs from Washington are not encouraging for Erdogan either.
Antony Blinken, Biden's choice for secretary of state, on January 20 accused NATO member Turkey of failing to act like an ally. Addressing legislators during his Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearing, Blinken said: "The idea that a strategic — so-called strategic — partner of ours would actually be in line with one of our biggest strategic competitors in Russia is not acceptable." Blinken also said Washington would consider whether further sanctions on Turkey would be implemented over its controversial purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system.
"The EU and the United States should sanction the Turkish individuals most involved in dismantling the rule of law and interfering with the domestic politics of Western countries. This would be consistent with Turkey's commitments under the NATO and Council of Europe charters," wrote co-authors Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and Francesco Siccardi, a senior program manager at Carnegie Europe.
Turkey's efforts to augment its navy do not promise quieter waters in 2021 than the Aegean and Mediterranean seas were in most of 2020.
At a high-profile ceremony on January 23, Turkey launched its first locally-built frigate, the I-class TCG Istanbul. The TCG Istanbul will enter the Turkish Navy's inventory in 2023. It is the first of four frigates planned under the MILGEM program that will finally involve four corvettes and four frigates, all built indigenously. Speaking at the ceremony, Erdoğan said that Turkey had to keep its military deterrence at a maximum. "To be militarily, economically and diplomatically strong is not a choice for us, it is a must," he said.
Meanwhile, several other major naval programs are scheduled to reach critical milestones in 2021. For instance, Turkey's first indigenous Landing Helicopter Dock, the TCG Anadolu, the intelligence ship Ufuk and replenishment tanker Güngör Durmuş will be commissioned in 2021. The TCG Anadolu, an amphibious assault ship and a $1 billion naval ambition, is being built in Turkey under license from Spanish shipyards Navantia. In 2021, Turkey is also planning to launch Reis-class submarines, the Piri Reis, a Type-214TN platform that will be Turkey's first air-independent propulsion capable submarine.
"Turkey has adopted a strongly militaristic approach, making efforts toward conflict resolution increasingly unlikely," wrote Dimitris Tsarouhas, a professor of international relations, a Scientific Council member of the Foundation for European Progressive Studies in Brussels, and a World Bank consultant.
Now at their 61st round, there is good reason to believe that the Turks and Greeks will have to hold several dozen more exploratory talks before sustainable peace across the Aegean becomes a genuine possibility.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Even Europe Is Losing Patience with Iran's Nuclear Antics
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/January 27/2021
In recent weeks Iran announced that it had begun work on enriching uranium to 20 percent -- just short of the level required to produce nuclear weapons -- as well as informing the International Atomic Energy Agency... that it was to resume work on producing uranium metal.
Both these developments represent a clear breach of the JCPOA. Under the agreement, Iran committed to keep uranium enrichment at 3.5 percent, the level required for civilian use, and signed up to a 15-year ban on "producing or acquiring plutonium or uranium metals or their alloys".
Iran's announcement that it was proceeding with the production of uranium metal has prompted a furious response from the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany, who, in a joint statement earlier this month, warned that there was "no credible civilian use" for the element, and that "The production of uranium metal has potentially grave military implications.
[W]hat makes anyone think Iran would honour a new deal any more than they honoured the old one? Why enter a new sham deal at all?
In recent weeks Iran announced that it had begun work on enriching uranium to 20 percent -- just short of the level required to produce nuclear weapons -- as well as informing the International Atomic Energy Agency that it was to resume work on producing uranium metal, for which, according to the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany, there is "no credible civilian use." Pictured: The Isfahan uranium enrichment facility in Isfahan, Iran. (Photo by Getty Images)
When the European Union starts warning the ayatollahs that the Iran nuclear deal is at a "critical juncture", it is a clear sign that Tehran's increasingly aggressive conduct in relation to its nuclear activities will make US President Joe Biden's hopes of reviving the deal almost impossible.
From the moment the nuclear deal was agreed to between Iran and six of the world's leading powers -- the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany -- in 2015, the EU has been an enthusiastic champion of the deal.
Even though neither Iran nor the EU itself was a signatory to the deal, the organisation's then foreign policy chief, the British Labour politician and veteran Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament activist Catherine Ashton, led a sustained campaign on behalf of the EU to support the agreement.
Consequently, the EU has remained a dogged supporter of the deal, even when incontrovertible evidence has emerged that Iran has been in breach of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the deal's official title.
The EU's devotion to the flawed agreement was highlighted when, in response to the Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Tehran, Brussels responded by attempting to set up its own trading mechanism with Tehran -- the so-called "special purpose vehicle" -- to enable European companies to continue trading with Iran without being hit with US sanctions.
Even though the initiative ultimately failed, as business leaders were more concerned about incurring US sanctions than trading with Iran, the EU has remained an enthusiastic champion of the nuclear deal, to the extent that, prior to Mr Biden's inauguration, the commission had already expressed its hopes for reviving the deal.
"We welcome President-elect Biden's positive statements on the JCPOA, and look forward to working with the incoming US administration," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement on behalf of the bloc earlier this month.
The EU supported "intensive diplomacy with the goal of facilitating a US return to the JCPOA and Iran's return to full JCPOA implementation," Borrell added.
The EU's unfettered enthusiasm for the nuclear deal, however, has been dealt a significant blow as a result of Iran's increasingly aggressive conduct on the nuclear front, to the extent that Mr Borrell has been forced to concede that the future of the agreement has now reached a "critical juncture".
In recent weeks, Iran announced that it had begun work on enriching uranium to 20 percent -- just short of the level required to produce nuclear weapons -- as well as informing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN-sponsored body responsible for monitoring Iran's nuclear activities, that it was to resume work on producing uranium metal.
Both these developments represent a clear breach of the JCPOA. Under the agreement, Iran committed to keep uranium enrichment at 3.5 percent, the level required for civilian use, and signed up to a 15-year ban on "producing or acquiring plutonium or uranium metals or their alloys".
Iran's announcement that it was proceeding with the production of uranium metal has prompted a furious response from the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany, who, in a joint statement earlier this month, warned that there is "no credible civilian use" for the element, and that "The production of uranium metal has potentially grave military implications."
The EU, too, has been forced to issue its most critical condemnation to date of Iran's blatant breaches of the JCPOA, with Mr Borrell issuing a statement warning that the "very concerning developments on the nuclear side... risks undermining diplomatic efforts, including ours, to facilitate a US return to the JCPOA."
When an organisation as totally committed to the nuclear deal as the EU voices grave concerns about Iran's wilful disregard for the terms of the agreement, it raises serious questions about the ability of the Biden administration to revive the deal.
Many of the appointments Mr Biden has made to his foreign policy team to date include veterans of the Obama administration who helped to negotiate the original, flawed deal.
Now, not even the most enthusiastic supporters of the nuclear agreement, whether in Europe or the US, can entertain the hope of reviving a deal with Tehran so long as the ayatollahs remain determined to ignore their international obligations. Most importantly, what makes anyone think Iran would honour a new deal any more than they honoured the old one? Why enter a new sham deal at all?
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Israel’s Normalization with Four Muslim Nations: The Good News and the Bad
Raymond Ibrahim/Jewish News Syndicate/January 27/2021
Israel recently signed agreements establishing relations with four Muslim nations: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.
Both good and bad news surround this development.
The bad news is bland and predictable: a permanent peace between Israel and its Muslim neighbors is, according to Islamic law, or sharia, impossible: any land that was once part of Dar al-Islam—that is, any land that was ever conquered by Muslims for any length of time—is always part of Islam and must be recovered by any means necessary—preferably jihad.
As it happens, the territory consisting of the modern state of Israel was conquered by Muslims in the year 637; from then until the creation of Israel in 1948—minus some two centuries of Crusader presence—it was part of the Muslim world.
To quote Dr. Ali al-Qaradaghi, a renowned Sharia expert and secretary-general of the International Union of Muslim Scholars: “There is a consensus among Muslims, in the past and present, that if an Islamic land is occupied, then its inhabitants must declare jihad until it is liberated from the occupiers.”
Hence the virulent animosity and terrorist machinations among Muslims for the Jewish state; hence the leaders of any Muslim nation that normalizes relationships with Israel provoke great anger among Muslims abroad and at home. (That Morocco has agreed to a “partial normalization has triggered outrage from some of Morocco’s neighbors and will likely upset many of its citizens; indeed, 88 percent of surveyed Moroccans said that they would oppose diplomatic recognition of Israel.”)
There is some good news, however, which may, in fact, overshadow the bad: Temporal circumstances have always factored in the application of sharia. For example, Islamic law has always allowed for truces with Islam’s enemies—especially when Muslims find themselves in a weakened state.
This traces back to the prophet of Islam’s own behavior and is therefore sunna: when Muhammad was weak and outnumbered in his early Mecca period, he preached peace and made pacts with “infidels” (this is when all the “coexisting” verses of the Koran appeared, e.g., 2:256); when he traveled to Medina and became strong in that period, he preached war and went on the offensive (this is when all the militant verses appeared, e.g., 9:5, 9:29). This dichotomy—preach peace when weak, wage war when strong—has been instructive to Muslims for ages.
In short and like everyone else, Muslims—particularly their rulers—participate in realpolitik, defined as “politics or diplomacy based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises.”
The UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco—and before them, Egypt and Jordon—established relations with what other Muslim nations see as the mortal enemy of Islam, precisely because it is in their best interest to do so. In exchange for establishing relations with Israel, for example, the United States agreed to remove Sudan from its list of State Sponsors of Terrorism, lift sanctions and advance discussions on debt forgiveness. Similarly, Morocco received American recognition of its sovereignty over a long-disputed territory in the Western Sahara.
The lesson is clear: Those in a position of power can make their enemies compliant—and without resorting to force. But this is only when their physical power is accompanied by moral power—a commitment to one’s own position, one’s own good.
By way of analogy, consider the two neighboring nations of Poland and Germany. Both are militarily stronger than any one Muslim nation, yet one of them is greatly suffering from Islam. Whereas Poland has shut its doors to Muslim migration—thereby not even needing to rely on force—Germany has opened its doors to millions of Muslims. The result is that Poland witnesses no Muslim violence, rapes and terrorism, while Germany is plagued by them. Both are strong, but only one has the will to exercise this strength for its own welfare.
A final point of interest is how Muslim leaders rationalize their relationship with Israel to their followers. Revisiting what PLO leader Yasser Arafat once said is instructive. In 1994, after he made a peace treaty with Israel that was predictably criticized by fellow Arabs as offering too many concessions, the Palestinian leader justified his actions by saying, “I see this agreement as being no more than the agreement signed between our Prophet Muhammad and the Quraysh in Mecca”—that is, a truce that Muhammad abolished on a pretext once he was in a position of power and able to go on the offensive.
In other words, the official narrative among those Muslim and Arab nations that make peace or establish relations with Israel will likely be that the arrangement is temporary; that Israel remains the enemy; and that once circumstances are more opportune, the jihad will resume.
But why should that matter? So long as Israel maintains the upper hand—and has the will to survive—so, too, will its existential enemies be forced to comply, regardless of what their inner narrative is.

The Syrian Regime’s Perplexed Loyalists: Who Are We?
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 27/2021
A new problem has been added to the many problems facing Syria today: Many want their share of the spoils, but there isn’t enough booty to satiate any of them. This situation sums up innumerable minor events and details, the most important of which is certainly the problem with the former partner and maternal cousin, Rami Makhlouf. As usual, he wanted to take, but he is suddenly being asked to give and pay back some of the debt owed to the Russians. His latest cry for help suggested a novel tendency, pleading to the Creator, after he had discovered the limitation of pleading to creations.
But spoil-sharing has a cultural extension, though the returns here are shallow, indeed, they are even shallower than the material and political returns. Only sediments remain of the corroded parties and ideas that all played a role in Bashar al-Assad’s war on his people, and they, in turn, also await the regime’s payment of the dues it owes them. These dead parties and ideas deludedly believe that the regime is capable of salvaging and reviving them. And since the ‘Arab Socialist Baath Party’ is no longer, as such, the ruling party, they are increasingly vying for the exposed pieces of this dwindling cake.
The list of debtors is long, as the regime is, of course, indebted to Iran, with its Vilayet el-Faqih, and to Russia, with its enthusiasm for minorities and its link to Levantism. Alongside them, it is also indebted to Hezbollah and the Shiite Iraqi factions. But it is also indebted to parties from the far left and others from the far right, and the Communists, the Syrian Nationalists, the Nasserists, and the official Sunni institution, whose presence helps to play down the regime’s Alawiteness. And this is aside from the many traditional familial and regional forces.
The debt’s receipt is long, no doubt. True, Hezbollah could grant Iran the share it calls for, but the Communists won’t find a Soviet Union to gift them their own share. As for Syrian Nationalists, they cause minor trouble to their allies by espousing rhetoric inimical to Arab Nationalist pretenses from time to time.
No doubt, the Syrian regime’s ideological cupboard includes something from all of this: Islamic Arabism, Secular Arabism, Syrianism without Arabism or Islam, Anti-Americanism in leftist and fascist variations…
Assad’s speech at the Uthmani Mosque lauded the Arabic language and Syria’s Arab identity, and, with typical delusiveness and sophistry, refused to say that the Arabs and their language’s arrival to Syria expelled Syriac from it. His Minister of Endowments Muhammad Abd al-Sattar al-Sayed attacked the notion of a “Syrian nation”, because what we know is “the Arab nation, and there can be no separation between Arabism and Islam.” However, the loyalist actress, Sulaf Fawakherji, considered Syriac “our mother tongue, the ancient sacred language of Syria’s history.”
These remarks would have gone totally unnoticed if it weren’t for a few precedents, particularly the racist anti-Arabism and anti-Arab campaign that the regime had sponsored. The campaign peaked in 2016, but it was abandoned recently. A few days ago, the “Al Modon” website reminded us of the campaign to “revive the heritage of the first civilizations to have settled in the region,” particularly the official celebration of the Assyrian Year, “Akitu,” which is “one of the holidays banned in the country, in the same way as the Kurdish Nowruz.”
In fact, parties to civil wars usually claim that they are fighting in defense of ideas, even when ideas mean nothing to them. They cling tightly, though rhetorically, to these ideas and their association with them. But, with the Assad regime, we are faced with a borrowing of ideas from every nook and cranny, whereby divergent versions are uninterruptedly toyed with, exchanged, and jumbled together. The regime thus has no answer to the question: Who are we? To be more precise, it has a thousand answers that satisfy a thousand factions… Beyond that, it does not have a “we” to begin with. Nor does it have an identity that goes further than its retention of power regardless of the cost. The only “we” available is the desire to perpetuate the survival of minor warlords backed by a big warlord.This loose situation has led some observers to expect a settlement between Syria and Israel, one that the ideological debtors will have to practice justifying if it is to emerge. And they would thus have to postpone their demands for their dues until after their deal is concluded.
In the meantime, what Rami Makhlouf did not attain will not be attained by partisan or ideological Rami Makhloufs. The treasury is totally empty. Rami was right to rely on God.