English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 27/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news
 

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Bible Quotations For today

I am the first and the last, and the living one. I was dead, and see, I am alive for ever and ever; and I have the keys of Death and of Hades
Book of Revelation 01/09-20: “I, John, your brother who share with you in Jesus the persecution and the kingdom and the patient endurance, was on the island called Patmos because of the word of God and the testimony of Jesus. I was in the spirit on the Lord’s day, and I heard behind me a loud voice like a trumpet saying, ‘Write in a book what you see and send it to the seven churches, to Ephesus, to Smyrna, to Pergamum, to Thyatira, to Sardis, to Philadelphia, and to Laodicea.’Then I turned to see whose voice it was that spoke to me, and on turning I saw seven golden lampstands, and in the midst of the lampstands I saw one like the Son of Man, clothed with a long robe and with a golden sash across his chest. His head and his hair were white as white wool, white as snow; his eyes were like a flame of fire, his feet were like burnished bronze, refined as in a furnace, and his voice was like the sound of many waters. In his right hand he held seven stars, and from his mouth came a sharp, two-edged sword, and his face was like the sun shining with full force. When I saw him, I fell at his feet as though dead. But he placed his right hand on me, saying, ‘Do not be afraid; I am the first and the last, and the living one. I was dead, and see, I am alive for ever and ever; and I have the keys of Death and of Hades. Now write what you have seen, what is, and what is to take place after this. As for the mystery of the seven stars that you saw in my right hand, and the seven golden lampstands: the seven stars are the angels of the seven churches, and the seven lampstands are the seven churches.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 26-27/2021

Lebanon Sees New Record High Covid Death Toll
Lebanon to Launch Registration Platform to Get COVID-19 Vaccine
Abiad Announces UNHCR Donation for RHUH, Urges Hospitals to Increase Bed Capacity
Lebanon Rocked by 2nd Day of Anti-Lockdown Protests
Aoun, Shea Discuss US-Lebanon Ties under Biden
Aoun: Lebanon Adheres to UNSC Resolution 1701
Fresh Protests, Clashes Break Out in Tripoli
Strong Lebanon Bloc Slams Hariri's 'Inaction, Reluctance'
Hariri Adviser Hits Out at Aoun after FPM Bloc Statement
Qassem Stresses Lebanon's Need for 'Resistance' in Talks with U.N. Official
Hariri Voices ‘Solidarity’ with Saudi Arabia
Swiss Ambassador to Beirut, Lebanese FM Hold Talks
Jumblatt: Does Iranian Hegemony Recognize Lebanon?
Clashes in Lebanon's Tripoli as Anger Grows Over Virus Lockdown

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 26-27/2021

Israel Army Chief Orders Plans to Counter Iran Nuclear Capabilities
Biden and Putin Hold First Phone Talks
Russia Suggests Mideast Ministerial Peace Conference
Blast Shakes Riyadh Three Days after Projectile Intercepted
Israel Hails New First in Relations with Sudan
Abbas to Resolve Outstanding Issues in Gaza Strip before Elections
Israeli Troops Kill Palestinian Attack Suspect in West Bank
Russia Raids Syrian Desert Area to Secure Homs,Deir Ezzor Road
Iran Will Take Steps Next Month to Curb Short-Notice IAEA Inspections
Moscow, Tehran Call for 'Rescue' of Iran Nuclear Deal
McKenzie: Iran Urged its Proxies to Avoid Provoking War ahead of Biden Inauguration
Iran: Biden Won't Have Infinite Time to Rejoin Nuclear Deal
Iran Sentences Brother of Senior Vice President to 2 Years
Iranian-American Facing Spying Charges Arrested as He Tried to Leave Iran
Zarif Kicks Off Regional Tour From Azerbaijan
Iran Asks Indonesia to Explain Seizure of Tanker Accused of Illegal Oil Transfer
Iranian Users of Signal Messaging Service Say App Blocked
Iran Approves Russian Coronavirus Vaccine Sputnik V
 

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 26-27/2021

Iran Hawks Begin Effort To Undermine Joe Biden's Diplomacy/Akbar Shahid Ahmed/HuffPost US/January 26/2021
The USA: Wise Republicans Still Have a Chance to Save Their Party/Eyad Abu Shakra /Asharq Al Awsat/January, 26/2021
Biden and the Arab Region… Reality and Ambition/Ahmed Abul Gheit/Ahmed Abul Gheit is the Secretary General of the Arab League./Asharq Al Awsat/January, 26/2021
Biden Has a Once-in-a-Century Chance to Fix Capitalism/Joe Nocera/Bloomberg/January, 26/2021
Biden's Amnesty Won't Attract New Waves of Immigrants/Noah Smith/Bloomberg/January, 26/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 26-27/2021

Lebanon Sees New Record High Covid Death Toll
Naharnet/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Lebanon on Tuesday announced a new record high daily toll of 73 coronavirus deaths,. It also recorded 3,505 fresh virus cases in a 24-period, the Health Ministry said. The new fatalities raise the overall death toll to 2,477.
The fresh cases meanwhile take the country’s overall tally since February 21 to 285,754 cases -- among them 3,747 cases detected among arriving travelers and 168,749 recoveries. Lebanon has imposed a round-the-clock curfew nationwide since January 14, barred non-essential workers from leaving their homes and restricted grocery shopping to deliveries. The drastic measures came after daily Covid cases suddenly shot up following gatherings during the holiday season, overwhelming hospitals.

Lebanon to Launch Registration Platform to Get COVID-19 Vaccine
Naharnet/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Lebanon will launch a registration platform on Tuesday to help people get COVID-19 vaccines starting with priority registration for healthcare workers, amid a continued surge in virus cases. Caretaker Health Minister Hamad Hassan resumed activity at the ministry in preparation for the vaccination phase, after being discharged last week from hospital following several days of treatment from Covid-19, the Saudi Asharq el-Awsat said. He held expanded meetings with representatives of trade unions concerned in the health and medical sectors, and with civil and military representatives to regulate the process. Hassan stressed in a statement on Monday that “the plan to manage the vaccination file will be announced (Tuesday) and will constitute a pivotal stage that depends on transparency and justice to confront the outbreak of the virus in Lebanon.” He added that vaccination centers will be identified within a clear-cut plan to ensure fair distribution of the vaccine in the capital as well as in all governorates. Lebanon witnessed a sharp surge in virus cases following the holidays. “The daily number of Covid patients in ICU increased by 163(21.7%), while the ICU bed capacity increased by 129(15.4%), with patients in the intensive care units increasing to 163,” Firas Abiad, director general of the state-run Rafik Hariri University Hospital had said. He also warned that easing the lockdown measures too soon risks losing any benefit that was achieved.

Abiad Announces UNHCR Donation for RHUH, Urges Hospitals to Increase Bed Capacity
Naharnet/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Firas Abiad, director general of the state-run Rafik Hariri University Hospital, said on Tuesday that the hospital received a donation from the UNHCR Lebanon enabling it to receive more coronavirus patientsز “Last Wednesday, RHUH received a kind donation from UNHCR Lebanon. The donation consisted of 10 beds, ventilators, and monitors, sufficient to expand our ICU capacity. The challenge given to our engineering and maintenance team: how quickly can we set them up?” he said on Twitter. “It took 6 days,” he said, adding that “tomorrow, RHUH will start admitting critical patients to its new 10-bed ICU expansion. Total bed capacity is now 54 adult and 5 neonatal ICU beds, in addition to 72 regular beds. Our nursing department has been diligently training our new recruits for the job,”emphasized Abiad. He stated that the hospital has admitted 20 mostly critical patients to the ER. “Daily for the past 2 weeks, more than 20 mostly critical patients were admitted in our emergency room, waiting for a bed. Despite our new expansion, I do not expect our staff in ER to get any respite. There are a lot of sick Covid patients, and this is not a time for rest.”“In these dire circumstances, it is the moral duty of all hospitals to increase their bed capacity as much as possible. Covid, however, cannot be defeated in hospitals. In the time of Coronavirus, we should celebrate when we finally close ICUs, not when we open them,” concluded Abiad.

Lebanon Rocked by 2nd Day of Anti-Lockdown Protests
Associated Press/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Demonstrators blocked several roads across Lebanon on Tuesday in protest at the dire economic situations amid a lengthy anti-coronavirus lockdown.
In Beirut, protesters blocked the Corniche al-Mazraa road with trash bins in both directions before riot police intervened and reopened it. They also partially blocked the Salim Salam tunnel. Protesters also blocked the vital Jiye highway that links Beirut to the South and the Elia roundabout in Sidon.
In the North, which witnessed violent confrontations between protesters and security forces overnight, demonstrators blocked the al-Beddawi international highway in both directions, causing a severe traffic jam in the area. The also blocked the Bab al-Tabbaneh road in Tripoli. Protesters also blocked the Chtaura-Zahle highway and the Taalabaya intersection in the Bekaa. In the evening, protesters blocked the Saifi road in Beirut, the Aramoun and Bchamoun intersection outside the capital, the Elia roundabout in Sidon and the Khalde-Choueifat road. The army meanwhile prevented protesters from blocking the vital Jal el-Dib highway. In the eastern Bekaa region, smoke and fire rose above the highway linking the area to the capital as dozens of protesters burned tires and trash canisters. "The street is exploding again," read the lead into the evening news bulletin on the private LBCI TV station.
Lebanon, a country of nearly 5 million and over 1 million refugees, is going through an unprecedented economic crisis that preceded the pandemic and restrictions imposed to combat it. A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-January in a bid to contain a major surge in coronavirus infections in the small country. Protesters have decried that they have been unable to cope with the nearly month-long lockdown with little to no government assistance. The lockdown is in place until February 8. Lebanon, a country of nearly 5 million and over 1 million refugees, is going through an unprecedented economic crisis that precedes the pandemic and restrictions imposed to combat it. The currency has tumbled, losing over 80% of its values; banks have imposed controls on withdrawals and transfers and unemployment and inflation skyrocketed.
Meanwhile, coronavirus infections surged in recent weeks, partially blamed on government measures to relax restrictions during the holiday seasons when tens of thousands of expat Lebanese were visiting. Hospitals have since registered near full occupancy of ICU beds and supplies were running out.

Aoun, Shea Discuss US-Lebanon Ties under Biden
Naharnet/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
President Michel Aoun discussed with the US Ambassador the future relations between Lebanon and the United States after President Joe Biden assumed office succeeding Donald Trump, the National News Agency reported on Tuesday.
Aoun asserted Lebanon’s keenness on maintaining friendly and cooperative relations between Lebanon and the US, within a framework of mutual understanding, respect and adherence to common values, said NNA.
Lebanon's indirect maritime demarcation negotiation with Israel was also tackled. Aoun affirmed Lebanon’s stance in resuming negotiations, based on the proposals presented in previous meetings. The meeting was held at Baabda Palace and was attended on the US side by Andrew Daehne, Political and Economic Affairs’ Advisor at the US embassy in Beirut. On the Lebanese side: former Minister Salim Jreisatti, Director General of the Lebanese Presidency, Antoine Choucair and Diplomatic Advisor, Osama Khachab, attended, said the agency.

Aoun: Lebanon Adheres to UNSC Resolution 1701
Beirut/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Lebanese President Michel Aoun affirmed Monday his country’s keenness to cooperate with the United Nations in all areas, stressing adherence to international charters and decisions, especially Resolution 1701. Aoun’s statement came while receiving UN Special Coordinator in Lebanon, Jan Kubis, at the Baabda Palace, on a farewell visit to mark the end of his tasks in Lebanon, and his assumption of new assignments, in Libya. The President called on UN-affiliated international organizations to continue providing support and assistance to Lebanon, especially in light of the current difficult circumstances, which the country passes through. Aoun awarded Kubis the National Cedar Order (Rank of Knight), in recognition of his efforts in enhancing cooperation between the UN and Lebanon, wishing him success in his newly assumed tasks. The President thanked the UN official for everything he had given and made for the benefit of Lebanon, which made him a friend of this country. Aoun also conveyed his greeting to UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, “Who more than once expressed his love, affection, and love for Lebanon, along with his constant desire to support this country.”
For his part, Kubis said, “I am leaving Lebanon, and this is unexpected, because my plan was to stay for a longer period, but matters are subject to circumstances and need. Therefore, I have to leave, but I am heartily staying here.” He said the UN will continue to communicate with Lebanon. Kubis’ Deputy, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, Najat Rushdi, will be in charge of the whole UN operation, up until the Secretary-General will appoint a successor. “I can confirm that the same attitude will be at the disposal and work for the benefit of Lebanon, by General Del Cole, Head of UNIFIL, and the operations will continue,” Kubis stated. He added that the UN Secretary-General is following, with keen interest, what is happening in the country, lately last Thursday in a telephone conversation with the Caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab. “They dealt with a number of issues which are very relevant and critical for Lebanon. I am in contact with the Secretary-General and I can confirm that he is now intensively looking in the areas in which Lebanon needs assistance, and he is ready to mobilize international and UN assistance,” Kubis said.

Fresh Protests, Clashes Break Out in Tripoli
Naharnet/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Dozens of demonstrators on Tuesday lobbed stones, fireworks and molotov cocktails at security forces in the northern city of Tripoli, protesting the lockdown measures and the dire economic situations for a second night in a row. They also tried to storm Tripoli’s serail, a key government building in the city.
Security forces meanwhile fired tear gas and rubber bullets at the protesters. Al-Jadeed TV said the army sent reinforcements to the city after protesters torched two vehicles, including a military one, and pelted troops with stones and firecrackers. The army later managed to evict protesters from the city’s al-Nour Square, dispersing them to surrounding streets. Protesters had earlier blocked several roads in the city and staged a march that stopped outside the houses of several MPs, carrying banners against corruption and chanting slogans denouncing politicians and demanding the recovery of stolen funds. Clashes between protesters and security forces in the city on Monday night had injured at least 30 people. A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-January in a bid to contain a major surge in coronavirus infections in the small country. Protesters have decried that they have been unable to cope with the nearly month-long lockdown with little to no government assistance. The lockdown is in place until February 8. Lebanon, a country of nearly 5 million and over 1 million refugees, is going through an unprecedented economic crisis that precedes the pandemic and restrictions imposed to combat it. The currency has tumbled, losing over 80% of its values; banks have imposed controls on withdrawals and transfers and unemployment and inflation skyrocketed. Meanwhile, coronavirus infections surged in recent weeks, partially blamed on government measures to relax restrictions during the holiday seasons when tens of thousands of expat Lebanese were visiting. Hospitals have since registered near full occupancy of ICU beds and supplies were running out.

Strong Lebanon Bloc Slams Hariri's 'Inaction, Reluctance'
Naharnet/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
The Free Patriotic Movement-led Strong Lebanon bloc on Tuesday lashed out anew at Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri. “The Lebanese no longer understand the underlying reasons behind the PM-designate’s inaction and reluctance to carry out his constitutional duty of forming the government in agreement with the president of the republic,” the bloc said in a statement issued after its weekly e-meeting.“In the face of this situation, the bloc raises serious questions on whether the PM-designate truly wants to form a government or that he is withholding formation pending certain developments,” the bloc added.

Hariri Adviser Hits Out at Aoun after FPM Bloc Statement
Naharnet/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
PM-designate Saad Hariri’s media adviser Hussein al-Wajeh on Tuesday placed the blame for the new government’s delay on the shoulders of President Michel Aoun. “The Lebanese no longer understand the underlying reasons behind the president’s evasion and his reluctance to carry out his constitutional duty of facilitating the government’s formation and signing the formation decrees in agreement with the PM-designate,” al-Wajeh said in a tweet, in an apparent response to a statement issued by the Free Patriotic Movement-led Strong Lebanon bloc. “In the face of this situation, the Lebanese raise serious questions on whether the president truly wants to form a government or that he is withholding formation, the same as they withheld the presidential election for two and a half years,” the adviser added. The Strong Lebanon bloc had earlier in the day blasted Hariri over the government formation crisis. “The Lebanese no longer understand the underlying reasons behind the PM-designate’s inaction and reluctance to carry out his constitutional duty of forming the government in agreement with the president of the republic,” the bloc said in a statement issued after its weekly e-meeting.

Qassem Stresses Lebanon's Need for 'Resistance' in Talks with U.N. Official
Naharnet/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Hizbullah deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qassem on Tuesday held talks with outgoing U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis. Kubis paid the farewell visit to Hizbullah on the occasion of the end of his mission in Lebanon. According to a Hizbullah statement, the meeting was held in the presence of the party’s Arab and international relations officer Ammar al-Moussawi. “The meeting tackled the situations in the local and regional arenas, including the efforts aimed at speeding up the formation of the government and the health and economic situations amid the wide spread of the coronavirus pandemic and the economic deterioration,” the statement said.Qassem stressed “Hizbullah’s stance, which calls for expediting the government’s formation in order to focus on addressing the current issues and challenges,” the statement added. “Hizbullah, with the resistance it represents, is an inseparable part of the will of the Lebanese to resisting the Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory and preventing Israel’s territorial, maritime and aerial violations,” Qassem also told Kubis according to the statement.

Hariri Voices ‘Solidarity’ with Saudi Arabia
Naharnet/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri condemned on Tuesday the constant attacks by Yemeni Huthi rebels at the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. “The Huthi attacks on Riyadh are condemned Iranian messages that aim to sabotage peaceful solutions for the crisis in Yemen,” said Hariri in a tweet. He voiced “solidarity with the Kingdom and with its leadership as it faces the challenges and dangers.”Saudi Arabia state media said on Saturday that a "hostile target" over Riyadh was intercepted. The kingdom has come under repeated attack from Yemen's Iran-backed Huthi rebels since 2015. Saudi Arabia has been repeatedly targeted by the Huthis since its 2015 intervention in Yemen, where it leads a military coalition that includes the United Arab Emirates that backs the government.
 

Swiss Ambassador to Beirut, Lebanese FM Hold Talks
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Lebanon’s foreign minister held talks Monday with the Swiss ambassador to Beirut after Switzerland started a probe into possible money laundering and embezzlement at the Mideast country’s central bank. Foreign Minister Charbel Wehbi and ambassador Monika Schmutz Kirgoz did not offer comments following their meeting, saying only that the probe is a matter that judicial authorities are dealing with. Switzerland’s attorney general said last week he has asked Lebanon for cooperation into the probe, without offering further details. It’s not clear what prompted the Swiss investigation. Lebanon’s Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh denied last week he had made any transfers of the bank’s funds. On Monday, shortly after the meeting between Wehbi and Kirgoz, the governor issued a statement saying reports about large transfers “are very exaggerated and have nothing to do with reality.” They allegedly aim to tarnish the image of the central bank and its governor “but lies won’t succeed,” said Salameh, who has been questioned by Lebanon’s prosecutor general, Judge Ghassan Oweidat. Swiss legislator Fabian Molina has been campaigning for months for Swiss authorities to act against corruption in Lebanon. On Sunday, he said he was pleased “there is finally a movement in connection with the billions (of dollars) stolen from the Lebanese people.” Molina added he expects the Swiss government and the Financial Market Authority to take action “to block further funds and prevent future cases of money laundering by Swiss banks.” Lebanon is facing its worst economic and financial crisis in its modern history and as of late 2019, private banks enforced informal capital controls, limiting withdrawals and blocking transfers abroad. The value of Lebanon’s currency tumbled against the dollar amid an unprecedented shortage of foreign currencies.
The government defaulted on its foreign debts and began talks with the International Monetary Fund for a rescue package. Amid the chaos, reports surfaced of capital transfers, including by government officials. A government-commissioned international audit of the central bank faltered after the New York-based company hired to do it said it was unable to acquire needed information and documents. Salameh, who has held the central bank post since 1993, has defended his role, alleging a systematic campaign meant to hold him responsible for the country’s financial crisis.

Jumblatt: Does Iranian Hegemony Recognize Lebanon?
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Head of Lebanon’s Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt lamented on Monday that the country has fallen under Iran’s “hegemony”. Meeting with expatriates, he wondered: “Does Iran recognize the Lebanese entity?”“This is a central question, because if it does, then we can deal with it. If it does not, then we have come under mandate rule or have become a region without borders,” he remarked. He noted that when Lebanon was subject to Syria’s hegemony from 1990 to 2000 – the year of the death of its president Hafez Assad – Damascus did not pursue the “elimination of the Lebanese state”. “It is true that the Syrian regime controlled every security and non-security aspect of Lebanon, but it did not seek to eliminate the Lebanese entity,” he went on to say. Jumblatt noted how Assad used to say that the Lebanese and Syrians were one people living in two countries, while today, Iran does not want a Lebanese entity. The former MP acknowledged that he was an ally to Syria at the time, adding that he knew what it may ask of Lebanon and knew when to draw the line. Addressing the Iranians, he asked: “Do you recognize Lebanon? Or do you have another way to demonstrate this recognition?”

Clashes in Lebanon's Tripoli as Anger Grows Over Virus Lockdown
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Lebanese demonstrators clashed with security forces in the northern city of Tripoli on Monday night, as anger grows over a total lockdown aimed at stemming an unprecedented spike in coronavirus cases. The National News Agency (NNA) said security personnel had clashed with demonstrators angered at "the lockdown, fines against those who flout it and the suffocating economic crisis."An AFP photographer saw demonstrators burn tires and throw rocks, to which security forces responded with teargas and rubber bullets. NNA said some protesters had thrown rocks at the main government building, while the Lebanese Red Cross reported that more than 30 people were injured, six of them hospitalized. It was not immediately clear whether the protest was spontaneous or organized, but Tripoli has seen previous protests against the measures. The northern city is Lebanon's poorest, and many residents live below the poverty line. Lockdown measures have been poorly observed in Tripoli, and security forces have repeatedly clamped down on offenders. Lebanon last week extended a total lockdown by two weeks to stem a rise in coronavirus cases and protect its collapsing health sector.
The restrictions include a round-the-clock curfew with grocery shopping limited to home deliveries, aimed at reining in one of the steepest spikes in Covid-19 infections in the world. Cases skyrocketed after families gathered during the end-of-year holidays and authorities allowed revelers to gather in bars until 3:00 am, despite warnings from health professionals. The country of six million has seen over 280,000 cases and 2,404 deaths from the disease. The surge in infections comes on top of the country's worst economic crisis since its 15-year civil war ended in 1990. Lebanon is expecting its first vaccines next month.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 26-27/2021

Israel Army Chief Orders Plans to Counter Iran Nuclear Capabilities
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Israel's army chief said Tuesday he had ordered that plans be drawn up to counter Iran's nuclear capabilities, in the event of a political decision to target the Islamic republic. Chief of Staff General Aviv Kochavi said he had instructed the military "to prepare several operational plans in addition to existing ones... throughout the coming year." "The power to initiate them lies with the political echelon," he noted, referring to Israel's government. "However, the offensive options need to be prepared, ready and on the table," he added. Iran, Israel's arch foe, agreed in 2015 a deal on its nuclear program with Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. The accord offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's nuclear ambitions and guarantees it would not seek an atomic bomb. Iran maintains it has only pursued a civilian nuclear energy program.
Israel always opposed the deal and in 2018 then U.S. president Donald Trump unilaterally pulled Washington out of it and reimposed crippling sanctions in a "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran. In response, Iran has stepped back from key nuclear commitments, leaving the deal hanging by a thread, even as new U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has signaled it wants to salvage the agreement. Israeli authorities openly fear this eventuality. "Any agreement that resembles the 2015 agreement is a bad thing, both strategically and operationally," Kochavi said, addressing a meeting organized by the Institute of National Security Studies. "Pressure on Iran must continue -- Iran must not have the capacity to develop a nuclear bomb," he added. The army chief also said Israel had hit 500 targets in the Middle East last year. Israel has undertaken air and missile strikes against Syria since the latter's civil war began in 2011, targeting Iranian forces and troops from the Lebanese movement Hizbullah deployed in support of Damascus. "Regarding the northern front, Iran is not displaying any intention of withdrawing," said Kochavi, referring to Lebanese and Syrian territory. "Our operations are destined to continue to prevent this (Iran's) deployment from continuing," he added.

Biden and Putin Hold First Phone Talks
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
U.S. President Joe Biden in his first phone call with Vladimir Putin since taking office raised concerns with the Kremlin leader over the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and Russian "aggression" against Ukraine, the White House said Tuesday. Biden placed the call in order to discuss with Putin "our willingness to extend" for five years the New START nuclear weapons treaty, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters. He also brought up "our strong support for Ukraine's sovereignty in the face of Russia's ongoing aggression," Psaki said. Biden raised other "matters of concern, including the Solar Winds hack, reports of Russia placing bounties on United States soldiers in Afghanistan, interference in the 2020 election, the poisoning of Alexei Navalny and treatment of peaceful protesters by Russian security forces." Psaki said Biden's "intention was also to make clear that the United States will act firmly in defense of our national interests in response to malign actions by Russia."Putin for his part told his U.S. counterpart that he supports "normalization" of relations between their two countries, the Kremlin said.The Kremlin said in a statement that Putin in the call "noted that the normalization of relations between Russia and the United States would meet the interests of both countries" and "the entire international community."

Russia Suggests Mideast Ministerial Peace Conference
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday backed a Palestinian proposal for a Middle East peace conference, saying at the U.N. that it could be held at ministerial level in spring or summer. Recalling that Moscow had backed Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas' idea for international talks in early 2021 when he first proposed it in September, Lavrov offered ideas about who could be invited. "We propose holding an international, ministerial-level meeting in spring-summer 2021," Lavrov told a videoconference UN Security Council meeting about the Middle East. Participants would include Israel, the Palestinians, the four members of the so-called Middle East diplomatic quartet (Russia, the United Nations, the United States and the European Union), along with four Arab states -- Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, Lavrov said. "It would also be important to invite Saudi Arabia, which is behind the Arab peace initiative," he added, without offering a specific date or site for the eventual conference. "This meeting could provide a platform for carrying out a complete analysis of the situation, and helping countries to launch a dialogue," Lavrov told the Security Council. He noted that Moscow remained ready to host a meeting between Israel and the Palestinians in the Russian capital "at the highest levels." At last year's annual meeting of the U.N. General Assembly, Abbas -- who had rejected a peace plan advanced by then U.S. president Donald Trump -- said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict needed to be resolved on the basis of international law, and under conditions agreed by the international community. On Tuesday, nearly all who spoke at the Security Council meeting reaffirmed the need for a two-state solution, under which Israel and a future Palestine would coexist. For the first time in 15 years, the Palestinians are set to hold elections -- legislative polls on May 22, following by a presidential election on July 31.
 

Blast Shakes Riyadh Three Days after Projectile Intercepted
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
At least one loud explosion rattled Riyadh on Tuesday, AFP correspondents reported, three days after the kingdom intercepted a projectile over the Saudi capital. Authorities in Saudi Arabia, which has come under repeated missile or drone attack from Huthi rebels in neighboring Yemen since 2015, did not immediately report the cause of the blast. The explosion shook windows across the Saudi capital at around 1:00 pm (1000 GMT), AFP correspondents and residents said. Some residents reported on social media hearing two blasts, claiming that they saw smoke in the sky, apparently from the interception of an aerial target by Saudi defence forces. Saudi Arabia has led a military intervention against the Huthis since 2015, and has repeatedly been targeted with cross-border attacks. It is rare, however, for drones or missiles launched by the Huthis to reach the kingdom's capital -- about 700 kilometers (435 miles) north of the border. Several flights from Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport were delayed after the incident, according to multiple passengers. They included the former White House Middle East envoy Jason Greenblatt, who said he was in the Saudi capital at the time. "In my seat at Riyadh airport, we heard that the delay in take-off is due to the launch of a missile by the terrorist Huthis," Greenblatt wrote on Twitter. "As an American, I say we must stand with our ally Saudi Arabia and its people. It has the right to defend itself and its people in the face of the barbaric attack."

'Complex security challenge' -
There was no public comment from the Saudi government, nor any claim of responsibility by the Huthi rebels. "Despite the lack of details about the reported missile interception above Riyadh, there is little doubt that Saudi Arabia is facing an increasingly complex security challenge," said Britain's Verisk Maplecroft risk consultancy. "The combination of weekly Huthi missile and rocket attacks against Saudi Arabia, and less frequent, but more sophisticated and targeted attacks against Saudi civilian and energy infrastructure, is a formidable threat." On Saturday, the Saudi-led coalition, which backs Yemen's internationally recognized government against the Iran-backed Huthis, said it had intercepted and destroyed a "hostile air target" heading towards Riyadh, state television reported. The brief statement did not identify the source of the target, and the Huthis said they were not involved. On Monday, France, Germany and Britain said they "strongly" condemned the weekend assault. "Proliferation and the use of missiles and drones undermine the security and stability of the region, to which we are strongly committed," the European nations said in a joint statement. The incident comes only days after Joe Biden was sworn in as U.S. president, replacing Donald Trump. On Monday, the new administration froze sanctions on dealings with the Huthis for one month as it reviews a terror blacklisting imposed under Trump, that aid groups warn will aggravate a humanitarian crisis. Relief groups say they have no alternative but to deal with the rebels, who control much of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa.

Israel Hails New First in Relations with Sudan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Israeli Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen has led a delegation to Khartoum, a spokesman said Tuesday, months after Sudan and the Jewish state struck a deal to normalize ties. The Monday visit marked the first time an Israeli minister headed a delegation to the African state, Cohen's office said.
The Israeli intelligence ministry said members of the delegation met head of state General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Defense Minister Yassin Ibrahim for talks on "diplomatic, security and economic issues". "A first-ever memorandum on these topics was signed between the Sudanese defense minister and Cohen," it said, AFP reported. The sides also discussed "deepening intelligence cooperation". "The Sudanese authorities briefed the Israeli delegation on their progress on cancelling the law boycotting Israel, and amending the law imprisoning Sudanese migrants, including to Israel, who return to Sudan," the ministry added. Sudan agreed to normalize ties with Israel in October last year and an Israeli delegation visited Khartoum the following month. On January 6, Sudan signed the "Abraham Accords" normalizing ties with Israel, making it the third Arab country to do so after the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain last year. Morocco also normalized its ties with Israel in December. Khartoum signed the accords less than a month after Washington removed it from its "state sponsors of terrorism" blacklist as part of a quid pro quo. But protests against normalization have continued in Sudan. On January 17, dozens of protesters gathered outside the cabinet office in Khartoum and burned the Israeli flag. Cohen said his visit to Khartoum "laid the foundations for many important collaborations that will help Israel and Sudan, boost regional stability, deepen our ties with Africa and lead to more agreements with states in the region".

Abbas to Resolve Outstanding Issues in Gaza Strip before Elections
Ramallah - Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
The Palestinian Fatah movement has decided to resolve all outstanding issues in the Gaza Strip before the general elections in May. Movement officials affirmed that President Mahmoud Abbas has formed a committee in this regard and ordered Prime Minister Mohamed Shtayyeh to resolve matters as soon as possible. Fatah Central Committee member Azzam Al-Ahmad, who is also member of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) Central Committee, said the president issued clear instructions to resolve all issues within days, mainly those on financial retirement and salary cuts. Fatah Central Committee member Tawfiq al-Tirawi noted that employee problems in the Strip would be resolved on several phases. The committee formed by Abbas will find solutions to the problems and then present them to the Central Committee, he added. These statements were welcomed in the Strip, where public sector employees have been suffering from salary cuts and many were referred to early retirement. Abbas’s move came in line with his movement’s preparations to run for the legislative elections, scheduled for May 22, and aims to attract more votes.
These decisions were taken during a central committee meeting on Sunday that was chaired by Abbas. Participants discussed the elections, including alliances, and whether forming a national list with other factions, including Gaza’s rulers Hamas, was possible. Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Fatah’s decision to form a list under the PLO umbrella indicated that every faction is welcome to join. This would complicate the possibility of forming a joint list between Fatah and Hamas, which rejects the PLO’s commitments. Sources said a PLO list will most probably be formed, without Hamas, but he stressed that all options are possible. Fatah deputy chief Mahmoud al-Aloul said on Monday that this issue has not yet been decided.

Israeli Troops Kill Palestinian Attack Suspect in West Bank
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Israeli troops on Tuesday shot and killed a Palestinian man suspected of trying to attack soldiers at a West Bank junction, the military said. The Israeli army said the assailant attempted to stab troops stationed at an intersection near the Israeli settlement of Ariel in the occupied West Bank.
“One of the soldiers blocked the assailant’s multiple stabbing attacks, and the commander of the troops who was at the scene fired towards the assailant and neutralized him,” the army said in a statement. The Palestinian Health Ministry confirmed the man’s death, but provided no further information. nThe military said no soldiers were wounded in the incident, The Associated Press reported. Israel has seen a series of shootings, stabbings and car-ramming attacks in recent years, mostly carried out by lone attackers with no apparent links to armed groups. Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups have praised the attacks but have not claimed them. Palestinian and Israeli rights groups have accused Israel of using excessive force in some instances, and of killing some suspected attackers who could have been apprehended.

Russia Raids Syrian Desert Area to Secure Homs,Deir Ezzor Road
Damascus, London /Tuesday, 26 January, 2021 - 08:30
Russian warplanes launched about a hundred raids on Aleppo, Hama, and Raqqa triangle governorates after four Syrian soldiers were killed in an ISIS ambush. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported the raids, saying Russian fighter jets flew over the Syrian desert and executed intensive airstrikes on ISIS positions in the Aleppo-Raqqah-Hama triangle and Deir Ezzor-Homs road. The Observatory documented over 95 Russian airstrikes in 24 hours, which started after the ISIS attack in the desert that killed four members of regime forces, including a first lieutenant, and injured ten others.
SOHR indicated that the large-scale security campaign led by Russia and its affiliated forces continued in the Syrian desert to secure Deir Ezzor-Homs road, in the wake of ISIS increased operations. Joint forces of the National Defense Forces, the Palestinian al-Quds Corps, and the 5th Corps combed the area from Kabajeb and al-Shawla in the west of Der Ezzor to al-Sukhnah. State agency Sana announced that three soldiers were killed, and ten others were injured after terrorist groups targeted the bus carrying them. The bus was “on Deir Ezzor–Palmyra road, in al-Malha –al-Shola area, and came under fire from the south side of the road by a terrorist group coming from al-Tanf area, claiming the lives of three soldiers and injuring ten others.” ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement published by its Amaq agency. The agency quoted military sources as saying that ISIS members attacked a convoy of vehicles for the Syrian army, including buses carrying soldiers and several vehicles, some of which were equipped with heavy machine guns. The Observatory confirmed in a statement that ISIS was responsible for the attack. In 2014, ISIS controlled large areas of Syria and Iraq, before it was defeated in the two countries, however, sleeper cells continue to launch attacks. In the previous months, the organization stepped up attacks against the Syrian regime forces, especially in the east of the country at the border with Iraq. Syria has been witnessing a conflict since 2011, which killed more than 380,000 people and caused massive damage to the infrastructure. It led to the displacement of millions of people inside and outside the country.

Iran Will Take Steps Next Month to Curb Short-Notice IAEA Inspections
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
uesday to block short-notice inspections of its nuclear facilities by the United Nations atomic agency as it presses Washington to reverse economic sanctions imposed on Tehran. Former US President Donald Trump pulled Washington out of Iran's 2015 nuclear pact with world powers in 2018 and reimposed US sanctions that had been lifted under it, prompting Tehran to violate its conditions. President Joe Biden, who took office last week, has said the United States will rejoin the pact if Tehran resumes strict compliance. The agreement requires Tehran to implement an Additional Protocol, which provides inspectors with wide-ranging access to information on Iran's nuclear activities and the ability to inspect any site it deems necessary to verify that those activities are peaceful. In what appeared to be a display of brinkmanship, Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei said the first steps to restrict inspections related to the Additional Protocol would begin in the first week of the Iranian month of Esfand, which starts on Feb. 19. "Our law is very clear regarding this issue," he told a televised news conference. "But it does not mean Iran will stop other inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency." Iran's hardline-dominated parliament passed a law in December that obliges the government to harden its nuclear stance if US sanctions are not lifted in two months. But Iran has repeatedly said it can quickly reverse its violations of the deal if US sanctions are removed. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reiterated that possibility at a news conference in Moscow on Tuesday. "If favorable actions are taken before that time...Iran will not interfere with the admission of (IAEA) inspectors under the additional protocol," he said. Iran this month resumed enriching uranium to 20% fissile strength at the underground Fordow nuclear plant, a level Tehran achieved before striking the 2015 deal aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear program. "Of course, Washington will not have all the time in the world ... the window of opportunity is very limited," Rabiei said.

Moscow, Tehran Call for 'Rescue' of Iran Nuclear Deal
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Moscow and Tehran called for the rescue of the Iran nuclear deal Tuesday, as their top diplomats held their first talks since Joe Biden's election raised hopes of Washington returning to the agreement. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said ahead of the talks in Moscow that "one of the most pressing topics is the task of rescuing the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA)". Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif thanked Moscow for its efforts to repair the JCPOA after the US exit in 2018 and for Russia's "constructive and principled" position on the deal. Zarif urged unity between Moscow and Tehran "in order to save the JCPOA from the risks and fears that arose after the United States left this plan." The talks in Moscow come days after Zarif urged the United States to make the "fundamental choice" to lift sanctions and reverse the "failed policies" of the previous administration, which took a hard line on Tehran. He cautioned that any efforts from Washington to extract additional concessions would ultimately end in failure, AFP reported. "Iran wants the nuclear deal it made," Zarif wrote in an op-ed in the Foreign Affairs magazine. The agreement was largely left in tatters after former US president Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew and ordered officials to reimpose tough penalties against Tehran as part of his administration's "maximum pressure" policy. The deal was agreed in 2015 between Iran, the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany.
It offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's nuclear ambitions and guarantees it would not seek an atomic bomb. Iran maintains it has only pursued a civilian nuclear energy program. A new wave of US sanctions have hit hard Iran's vital oil sector and its international banking ties, plunging the economy into a recession. But Tehran has signaled it could be willing to engage the new White House administration while rhetoric from officials in Moscow has suggested a change in tack in Washington from the Trump administration. Joe Biden's pick for secretary of state, Anthony Blinken, said at a Senate confirmation hearing this month that Trump's policies had made Iran "more dangerous". While Blinken confirmed Biden's desire for Washington to return to the nuclear agreement, both sides have said the other must return to full compliance before the accord is implemented again. Since the deal began unraveling with the US exit, Russia and European signatories have advocated efforts to salvage the accord and cautioned Iran against bolstering its nuclear enrichment. Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in December urged Iran to take "maximum responsibility" after Tehran announced plans to install advanced centrifuges in its main nuclear enrichment plant. The ministry earlier this month blamed Iran's departure from norms of the nuclear deal on "systematic crude violations" by the United States and praised the Islamic republic for its stated willingness to rejoin its obligations.
Moscow appears cautiously optimistic over the fate of the deal under the new White House administration after its arms negotiator described Washington's position as "businesslike and pragmatic". "It means there is a chance to move forward," Mikhail Ulyanov told state-run television last week.
But time is running out for signatories to restore the nuclear deal and bring all parties back on track. Legislation passed by Iran's parliament in December requires Tehran to boost uranium enrichment and limit UN inspections if sanctions are not removed by February.

McKenzie: Iran Urged its Proxies to Avoid Provoking War ahead of Biden Inauguration
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Iran had urged its regional proxies to “avoid provoking war” on the eve of the inauguration of US President Joe Biden, revealed CENTCOM's commander General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie. McKenzie said the relationship between Washington and Tehran is entering a “period of opportunity.” “Not all of that is probably the result of the military component. I’m sure there’s a political calculation in Iran to get to a new administration and see if things change.” He told reporters, onboard a US plane heading to the Middle East, that not all of these groups operate under direct command and control of Tehran, but they were able to convey the message that this is not the right time to provoke a war. McKenzie noted that US troops in the region played a major role in managing the escalation and avoided direct confrontation with Iran. “They're [Iranians] not looking for a major incident with the United States right now, because I believe that deterrence has been established.” McKenzie stressed that US policy in the Middle East will not witness immediate major changes, “at least for the time being”, referring to the priorities of the administration and the new defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, who is likely to focus on affairs at the Pentagon and daily coronavirus briefings. Meanwhile, Iran’s Chief of Staff Mohammad Baqeri announced that his country had received messages from its “enemies” indicating that they do not want to carry out an attack against Iran. Over the past two weeks, Iran has conducted ten intense military drills as part of the “Eqtedar” maneuvers, announced Baqeri. He said the drills included “extraordinary measures”, some of which were executed for the first time, demonstrating Iran’s strength and readiness. He accused former President Donald Trump of constantly threatening the Iranian regime during the last two months of his term, describing him as "foolish" and "illiterate" and revealing that Tehran was expecting anything from him during his final days in office.

Iran: Biden Won't Have Infinite Time to Rejoin Nuclear Deal
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Iran warned the new US administration on Tuesday that it will not have an indefinite time period on its disposal to rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers. Iran also said it expects Washington to swiftly lift crippling economic sanctions that former President Donald Trump imposed on the country after pulling America out of the atomic accord in 2018, as part of what he called maximum pressure against Iran. Trump cited Iran’s ballistic missile program among other issues in withdrawing from the accord. And when the Trump administration increased sanctions, Iran gradually and publicly abandoned the deal’s limits on its nuclear development. The remarks Tuesday by Iran's Cabinet spokesman Ali Rabiei are part of pressure that Tehran is trying to exert on the US as it seeks to increase its leverage and get the Biden administration to quickly return to the deal. President Joe Biden has moved swiftly to dismantle Trump’s legacy by signing a series of executive actions that reverse course on a wide range of issues, including climate change and immigration. Though Biden has pledged to return to the nuclear deal, Rabiei said there has yet to be any communication between Iran and Biden on the subject. “The US will not have all the time in the world,” Rabiei said, The Associated Press reported. “We are waiting for the official announcement of their stance as well as the lifting of sanctions.” In the meantime, he added that Iran would take a step further away from the nuclear deal by imposing a “restriction” on inspections by the UN nuclear watchdog in late February. In December, Iran's parliament approved a law under which part of the inspections that the deal had provided for would be suspended in February if European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal do not offer relief from oil and banking sanctions.
Tensions between Tehran and Washington have steadily increased. During Trump’s final days as president, Tehran seized a South Korean oil tanker and begun enriching uranium closer to weapons-grade levels, while the US has sent B-52 bombers, the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and a nuclear submarine into the region. Iran has also increased its military drills, including firing cruise missiles as part of a naval drill in the Gulf of Oman this month. Iran has missile capability of up to 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles), far enough to reach archenemy Israel and US military bases in the region. Last January, after the US killed a top Iranian general in Baghdad, Tehran retaliated by firing a barrage of ballistic missiles at two Iraqi bases housing US troops, resulting in brain concussion injuries to dozens of American soldiers.

Iran Fears Low Turnout in Presidential Election
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
The Iranian Minister of Interior, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, has expressed concerns over possible low turnout in the upcoming presidential election, scheduled for early June. The official IRNA agency reported that Rahmani Fazli urged state governors during a video conference to ramp up preparations ahead of the election, saying that the political, social, and public opinion did not interact with the election. "When we compare this election period with the past four years, we feel a little anxious," said Rahmani Fazli, adding that it is imperative that political parties become more involved in order to ensure a successful election.
Despite the economic pressures caused by the US sanctions and repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic, the country's security is in an acceptable position, and authorities will supervise and audit the whole electoral process, asserted the minister. Iran recorded its lowest turnout in 41 years during the parliamentary election last February. The participation rate in the parliamentary election, in which the conservatives won the majority of the seats, reached 25 percent in Tehran and 43 percent across the country, according to official figures. Observers believe that the actual participation was less than that. Meanwhile, sources close to former reformist President Mohammad Khatami denied reports claiming he was planning to run for the upcoming presidential election. Khatami was president of Iran for an eight-year term, before leaving office to his successor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in 2005. Mohammad Saduqi, Khatami’s nephew, announced on Instagram that the former president informed him on Sunday he was not a candidate, according to the reformist news agency ILNA. Saduqi quoted Khatami as saying: "I will not run for the presidential election... It is not possible. We must not toy with the hopes and trust of the people.” Khatami wants to ensure a suitable atmosphere for dynamic election with candidates of different orientations. According to Saduqi, Khatami indicated that the large popular turnout in the upcoming election can ensure that hardliners will not win the majority.

Iran Sentences Brother of Senior Vice President to 2 Years
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Iran has sentenced the brother of the country’s senior vice president to two years in prison on corruption charges, the website of the Iranian judiciary reported Tuesday. According to the judiciary's spokesman, Gholamhossein Esmaili, the verdict for Mahdi Jahangiri, the brother of Eshaq Jahangiri, is final and cannot be appealed. Mahdi Jahangiri was on the board of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce and was also the founder of the private Gardeshgari Bank, The Associated Press reported. Esmaili said charges against the banker included “professional currency smuggling” in the amounts of 607,100 euros and $108,000. Mahdi Jahangiri was also ordered to return the funds and fined four times the amounts in question. Jahangiri was arrested in October 2017 and released on bail in March 2018, pending trial. Few details of the case have since emerged in public, though his brother Eshaq Jahangiri was quoted at the time of the arrest as saying that Mahdi's detention was “predictable” and “expected" and that he hoped “everyone will be treated equally in the quest for justice." In October 2019, President Hassan Rouhani's brother, Hossein Fereidoun, was sentenced to five years on financial misconduct charges dating back to 2016. The charges against Fereidoun were brought by hard-liners who dominate Iran's judiciary. Iran has in the past jailed allies of former presidents on similar charges. Tensions between Rouhani and Iran's hard-liners escalated further after former President Donald Trump pulled America out of the 2015 nuclear deal and stepped up economic sanctions on Tehran.

Iranian-American Facing Spying Charges Arrested as He Tried to Leave Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
An Iranian-American facing spying charges in Iran has been arrested as he tried to leave the country, judiciary spokesman Gholamhossein Esmaili said on Tuesday. The dual national is among a handful of Iranian-Americans reported to be held by Iran, which has been accused by rights activists of arresting dual nationals to try to win concessions from other countries. Iran has regularly dismissed the charge. The arrest appears to be the first such detention of an Iranian-American since the inauguration of US President Joe Biden, who is expected to re-engage diplomatically with Iran after years of a "maximum pressure" policy applied by his predecessor Donald Trump. "The defendant had been free on bail ... and was arrested as he tried to leave the country," Esmaili told a news conference streamed live on a government website. "This person... faced charges from earlier in the area of spying and gathering information for foreign countries," he said. He did not name the defendant. But Iranian media reports said a businessman identified as Emad Shargi had been arrested as he tried to escape through a western border. The reports did not say whether he was a dual national, Reuters reported. US media reports earlier quoted a family friend of Shargi as saying the 56-year-old Iranian-American had been summoned to a Tehran court in November and told that he had been convicted of espionage allegedly without a trial and sentenced to 10 years in prison. Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards have arrested dozens of dual nationals over recent years, mostly on espionage charges. Some have been swapped for Iranians held overseas on charges including attempts to bypass US sanctions.

Zarif Kicks Off Regional Tour From Azerbaijan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif held talks Monday with Azerbaijan leaders, including President Ilham Aliyev and Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, one day following his arrival to the capital of Baku in the first leg of his tour of the Caucasus and Turkey. The Minister said Iran is ready to actively participate in the reconstruction of the recent liberated areas, IRNA news agency reported. It said Tehran would present technical and engineering services, in addition to electricity, energy, and the reconstruction of mosques and historical monuments. For his part, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev welcomed Iranian companies’ presence in the reconstruction of Karabakh. Iranian media reported that Zarif's visit aims to "help establish peace and stability in the region." As part of his regional tour, the Iranian Minister will travel to Moscow Tuesday to hold talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. Meanwhile in Tehran, a website close to conservatives said deputies are planning to prosecute Zarif, in addition to the director of the Department of Environment, Issa Kalantari, and Former Roads and Housing Minister Abbas Akhoundi. A member of the National Security Committee and foreign policy of the Iranian parliament said that a number of deputies had signed a complaint and raised it to the Iranian judiciary against Zarif. He said this came after Zarif made statements earlier, claiming that a number of Iranian officials were calling on Washington to engage in negotiations with them rather than the government Hassan Rouhani.

Iran Asks Indonesia to Explain Seizure of Tanker Accused of Illegal Oil Transfer
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Iran has asked Indonesia to provide details about the seizure of an Iranian-flagged vessel, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said on Monday, a day after Jakarta said it had seized Iran and Panama-flagged tankers in its waters. Indonesia said on Sunday its coast guard had seized the Iranian-flagged MT Horse and the Panamanian-flagged MT Freya vessels over suspected illegal oil transfer in the country’s waters. Khatibzadeh said that the seizure was over a “a technical issue and it happens in shipping field”. “Our Ports Organization and the ship owner company are looking to find the cause of the issue and resolve it,” Khatibzadeh told a televised weekly news conference, Coast guard spokesman Wisnu Pramandita said the tankers, seized in waters off Kalimantan province, will be escorted to Batam island in Riau Island Province for further investigation. Wisnu told Reuters on Monday that the ships were “caught red-handed” transferring oil from MT Horse to MT Freya and that there was an oil spill around the receiving tanker. He added that 61 crew members onboard the vessels were Iranian and Chinese nationals and had been detained. Indonesia’s foreign and energy ministries did not immediately comment on the matter. Both the supertankers, each capable of carrying 2 million barrels of oil, were last spotted earlier this month off Singapore, shipping data on Refinitiv Eikon showed. Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) MT Horse, owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC), was almost fully loaded with oil while VLCC MT Freya, managed by Shanghai Future Ship Management Co, was empty, the data showed. Asked to comment on the seized tanker, Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh told reporters : “It was carrying oil ... the issue is being followed up by Iran.” The International Maritime Organization requires vessels to use transponders for safety and transparency. Crews can turn off the devices if there is a danger of piracy or similar hazards. But transponders are often shut down to conceal a ship’s location during illicit activities. “The tankers, first detected at 5:30 a.m. local time (2130 GMT on Jan. 23) concealed their identity by not showing their national flags, turning off automatic identification systems and did not respond to a radio call,” Wisnu said in a statement on Sunday. A search by Reuters on a Chinese company directory found that the registered office address of Shanghai Future Ship Management Co came under another firm named Shanghai Chengda Ship Management. Several calls made to the office went unanswered. Iran has been accused of concealing the destination of its oil sales by disabling tracking systems on its tankers, making it difficult to assess how much crude Tehran exports as it seeks to counter US sanctions. Iran sent the MT Horse vessel to Venezuela last year to deliver 2.1 million barrels of Iranian condensate. Over the past few months, MT Freya has delivered two crude oil cargoes totaling about 4 million barrels into Qingdao port on the east coast of China and northeast Yingkou port, said Emma Li, a senior crude analyst with Refinitiv. The Qingdao cargo was declared as Upper Zakum crude produced in the United Arab Emirates, said Li, who tracks China-destined crude oil shipments.

Iranian Users of Signal Messaging Service Say App Blocked
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Iranian users of the Signal messaging service said Monday they have lost access to the app on their mobile devices. Users in several neighborhoods in the capital Tehran and at least three other major cities contacted by The Associated Press said access to the app was blocked gradually beginning in the afternoon.
They said they could use the system through virtual private networks, services that shield internet users by encrypting their data traffic. Some still had access through desktop version of the app. State media did not report that the app was blocked and calls to authorities were not immediately returned Monday.
It's not clear how many Signal users there are in Iran but many migrated to the app after Whatsapp updated its privacy policy in January, AP reported. The Iranian government has long blocked access to many websites and social media platforms, from YouTube and Facebook to Twitter and Telegram.
Last week, Iran’s judiciary released the country’s telecom minister, Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi, on bail after he was summoned for prosecution. Officials cited his refusal to block Instagram and other foreign social media and messaging systems. Many Iranians, mostly youth, access social media through VPNs and proxies. Instagram and WhatsApp remain unblocked. Emerging hard-liners in the country’s parliament and other powerful bodies view social messaging services as part of “soft war” by the West against Iran.

Iran Approves Russian Coronavirus Vaccine Sputnik V
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Iran has approved Russia's Sputnik V vaccine and plans to both import it and produce it, giving the region's worst-hit country a tool to fight the spread of COVID-19, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Tuesday.
"The Sputnik V vaccine was yesterday also registered and approved by our health authorities," Zarif said at a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Moscow on Tuesday. "In the near future, we hope to be able to purchase it, as well as start joint production." Earlier this month Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran’s highest authority, banned the government from importing vaccines from the United States and Britain, which he said were possibly seeking to spread the infection to other countries. Iran recorded over 1.38 million cases and 57,560 deaths, according to government data on Tuesday, but there has been a decline in new infections in recent weeks.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 26-27/2021

Iran Hawks Begin Effort To Undermine Joe Biden's Diplomacy
Akbar Shahid Ahmed/HuffPost US/January 26/2021
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) is leading hard-liners in smearing former White House official Rob Malley. Biden's response could be a key sign about his foreign policy.
President Joe Biden and his top foreign policy aides have promised to move carefully to achieve one of his main diplomatic goals: restoring the 2015 international agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program, which former President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from in 2018.
Iran hawks like Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) are determined to quickly stymie Biden’s plans. And this week they picked their first target: Rob Malley, a former White House official who is being considered for a role as a special envoy to Tehran.
A motley crew of hard-liners ― including Cotton, hawkish Iranian-Americans, conservative commentators and a number of Americans formerly detained in Iran ― are involved in a smear campaign against Malley, who worked on Mideast issues at the National Security Council under Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. These critics argue, with scant evidence, that Malley sympathizes with the Iranian regime and disdains U.S. ally Israel, which sees Iran as its chief threat.
In response, a chorus of well-respected voices on global affairs, from multiplesenators to former U.S. and foreign officials and powerful advocacy groups, responded with affirmations of Malley’s professionalism, expertise and commitment to peace-building and U.S. security.
It’s increasingly clear that the dispute is about much more than Malley’s personal views and credentials. Skeptics of negotiations with Iran don’t just want to block one specific appointment; they want to influence the Biden administration’s broader approach and make it harder for the president’s team to shore up the nuclear deal. Biden won the election, but many Republicans and their partners are pushing him to continue his predecessor’s aggressive policy toward Iran.
It’s not about Rob ― it’s about opposing diplomacy. It’s about trying to see if they can, early on, pick a fight and get Biden to fold.”
By creating a controversy like this, hard-liners can see how the Biden administration reacts and learn how best to shape its future calculations. And they can assess the extent to which old complaints about such diplomacy, which dominated the last few years of Obama’s presidency, resonate in the news cycles of 2021. For all their expressions of concern, for their purposes it is mostly irrelevant whether or not Malley ultimately gets the job: Biden will pursue talks with Iran anyway, and they will remain focused on spoiling any agreement they see as too soft.
“It’s not about Rob ― it’s about opposing diplomacy,” said one person familiar with the Biden team’s thinking who sought anonymity to preserve relationships. “It’s about trying to see if they can, early on, pick a fight and get Biden to fold.”
J Street, a prominent Jewish group supportive of both Israeli defense concerns and talks with Tehran, noted that the assault on Malley struck a familiar tone.
“We are... dismayed to already be witnessing the same kind of character assassinations and false accusations being leveled against people who have committed their careers to advancing diplomacy and peace in the Middle East (in this case Malley) and the unfounded accusations of hostility to Israel and/or Jewish interests,” the organization tweeted. “Along with nearly 3/4 of American Jewish voters, we strongly support a return to the [deal] and a negotiated solution on the Iranian nuclear issue [and] broader regional conflicts.”
The way for Biden’s team to successfully manage the kerfuffle is to stand its ground and avoid ceding leverage to figures who are likely to criticize any diplomatic effort, the person said. “The smart play is build your team and do what you did during the campaign: Ignore Twitter.”
A White House spokesperson declined to comment on Malley’s potential appointment. Malley did not respond to a request for comment.
The Real Debate: Politics, Not Personnel
On Jan. 20, Jewish Insider reported that Malley ― currently the president of the nonprofit International Crisis Group ― was being considered for the Biden administration’s Iran envoy job. The Insider noted that Malley had criticized the assassination of a top Iranian nuclear scientist in November as unhelpful for diplomacy ― a view shared by an array of foreign policy experts.
The same day, a little-known Iranian-American group called the National Union for Democracy in Iran published a message urging Biden to reject Malley, saying that he didn’t sufficiently prioritize the Islamic Republic’s human rights abuses in interacting with Iranian officials and that he lacks relationships with Iranian civil society. The letter’s signatories included Mariam Memarsadeghi, an activist who wants the U.S. to bolster “an impending transition” in Iran’s leadership, and Xiyue Wang, an American graduate student who spent three years imprisoned in Iran before being released in December 2019.
On Jan. 21, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Eli Lake, a longtime critic of diplomacy with Iran, published a piece suggesting that hiring Malley would be a “blunder” for Biden and undermine other officials, such as Secretary of State nominee Tony Blinken.
Hours later, Cotton tweeted out Lake’s story with a lengthy, disparaging comment accusing Malley of “animus towards Israel.”
“The ayatollahs wouldn’t believe their luck if he is selected. Appointing radicals like Malley gives the lie to all of President Biden and Tony Blinken’s rhetoric of unity,” Cotton continued.
A classic Washington mini-scandal was born. But the dated feeling of the controversy limited its effect. For many national security observers, the process echoed the Obama years of arguing over Iran policy ― and it was easy to note that these fights had been fought before, with the hawks ultimately losing as Obama enacted his deal.
Rob Malley served in the White House under Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton and helped negotiate...
Rob Malley served in the White House under Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton and helped negotiate the 2015 international agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program.
For one thing, Malley’s critics were heavily overstating his potential sway. No matter how influential Malley might become, he would not be making the final call on Iran as commander in chief ― something the Iranians know.
And the aspersions against Malley have already been publicly litigated before. Both articles noted that in 2008, Malley resigned from an informal role on Obama’s presidential campaign after The Times of London highlighted that he had met with representatives of Hamas, the armed Palestinian group. Lake also cited Malley’s statements that Israeli officials also held some responsibility for the failure of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks under Clinton and his recent comments in an interview that former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s list of demands for Iran made diplomacy near impossible.
Malley has stood by his actions, and peers in the foreign policy community have said they continue to hold him in high regard ― not least because of his willingness to try to reach some kind of common ground with difficult adversaries.
“We had our differences over the years, however they affected neither trust nor friendship,” tweeted Gilead Sher, who served in the Israeli government under former Prime Ministers Ehud Barak and Yitzhak Rabin and remains a reserve colonel in the Israeli armed forces. “Rob is exceptionally knowledgeable, and he knows bargaining [with] the devil won’t be an easy walk.”
Tamara Cofman Wittes, a former State Department official now with the Brookings Institution, connected the push against Malley to hawks’ fears of a turnaround from Trump’s policy of pressuring Iran in unprecedented ways.
“Trump’s Iran policy was reckless [and] left the world, our partners [and] us less safe,” she tweeted. “Republicans, and their allies in the commentariat, are engaging in outrageous personal smears of a good [and] smart man because they know they can’t win an argument on policy. Shameful.”
The Fights Ahead
Biden and his team have incentives to try to engage Iran soon. In December, Iranian lawmakers directed officials to bolster uranium enrichment and begin using more advanced centrifuges, boosting the country’s chances of building a nuclear bomb and increasing tensions with the U.S. in the coming months. And the country will elect a new president in June ― one who is expected to be far more wary of the U.S. than incumbent Hassan Rouhani.
Antiwar groups and arms control experts say Biden could signal good faith to hasten nuclear negotiations by rolling back some non-nuclear sanctions imposed by Trump and being clear that the U.S. will no longer block other international actors, such as European companies and the International Monetary Fund, from some cooperation with Iran.
Establishing a strong political foundation in Washington for diplomacy is crucial, too. The Malley dispute is an early test of whether Biden can achieve that.
The person familiar with the Biden team noted that even if hawks do not succeed in scuttling Malley’s appointment, their smears against him might have a lasting impact.
The hard-liners could push Biden administration officials to say Malley’s role is limited, boosting the perception pushed in Lake’s Bloomberg column that there is a divide in the new team on how to handle Tehran. They could also coax out repeated assurances from Biden appointees that they view Iran skeptically ― as Republicans already did this week in confirmation hearings for Blinken and Avril Haines, the newly confirmed director of national intelligence. That would help create public wariness around engaging Tehran.
“The biggest victory would be to get them to throw Rob over the side, but there are other victories short of that that could still be very damaging to the diplomatic effort,” said the person familiar with the Biden team’s thinking.
Biden’s allies hope he can avoid those traps by projecting confidence in his aides’ qualifications and a federal government under unified Democratic control.
“I think Joe Biden should pick his Iran envoy, not Tom Cotton,” tweeted Ben Rhodes, a former national security adviser under Obama. “Elections have consequences.”
 

The USA: Wise Republicans Still Have a Chance to Save Their Party
Eyad Abu Shakra /Asharq Al Awsat/January, 26/2021
It was ironic that the number of US troops mobilized in Washington DC on January 6th exceeded the 2500 troops left in Afghanistan; but this was exactly what happened on President Joe Biden’s Inauguration Day.
This is an image of a rapidly changing world, whose changes we must keenly read without haste, denial, or neglect. Concepts and convictions also change; something we have learned from ‘the school of life’…. the world’s greatest school for politics.
When I first came to the UK, more than four decades ago, I witnessed firsthand the first government change in a Western democracy. The Labour Party was in power when I arrived in London in the fall of 1978; with James Callaghan as Prime minister and the impressive Denis Healey as Chancellor of Exchequer. Healey, in my personal, was one of two British brilliant politicians who deserve the description “the best Prime Minister Britain never had”, along with the famous Conservative grandee Richard R. Butler.
Butler and Healey, each in his own way and his own qualities, was too big for that post. Perhaps, this is why their party colleague refused to make them Prime Ministers, despite their resounding successes in all the senior cabinet posts they occupied. During the economically and politically tense late 1970s, Healey was not only a prominent figure, but also the ‘face of the government’ during all the heated media debate; however, two factors limited his ability to maneuver.
The first was the Labour Left’s creeping dominance of the powerful trades unions, as well as the local constituency party organization. This weakened and besieged Healey’s pragmatist centrist faction inside the party.
The second was the ascendancy of the populist hard-right within the Conservative Party led by Margaret Thatcher, under guidance of her ‘Godfather’ Sir Keith Joseph. Thatcher’s hard right built its populist appeal on effectively demonizing the intransigence, dogmatism, and transgressions of the trades unions; highlighting the union’s rejection of new technology and disrupting daily life with never-ending strike actions, sometimes for the pettiest of reasons.
As if these two factors were not enough, there was a third major global factor. As the ‘Cold War’ was fast reaching its climax, the Labour Left was idealistic enough to adopt the policy of unilateral nuclear disarmament in the face of the USSR. This stance allowed the Conservative right to accuse Labour’s ‘submissive’ policy of ‘threatening Britain’s security’. This coincided across the Atlantic with Ronald Reagan leading the onslaught of the Republican right against the ‘idealist’ Democratic president Jimmy Carter and accusing him of weakness and hesitancy against Moscow.
During the last three months in 1978, between October and the first week of 1979, I lived in London through what was became known as the ‘Winter of Discontent’. However, little did I know then that I was living the budding ‘Reagan - Thatcher Alliance’ which would end the ‘Cold War’ by defeating the USSR.
Indeed, Labour lost the spring of 1979 British general elections, and Thatcher became prime minister. She would later carry out for 11 years radical changes that would redefine British politics.
During those 11 years, the prominent leaders of yesterday became ordinary people. The firebrand radical trade unionists were defeated and their once-proud unions emasculated. Soon enough, they were followed by the Leftist Labour politicians - who had misread the mood of the nation, as well the international climate - after Conservative landslide victory in the 1983 general elections.
I returned to settle in London in the early summer of 1979; and one day, while walking in Piccadilly, I found myself in front of Denis Healey. The great man himself, who filled the TV screens and political platforms a few months ago, was now walking among the crowds like any ordinary citizen, with no guards or security escorts. That was the first practical lesson I learned about the institution's Western democracy.
The second lesson came in 1990 when Margaret Thatcher was hell-bent on implementing policies that reflected her conservative dogmatism; in the belief that her historic aura made the Conservative her own fiefdom. Her hard-right dogmatism - supported by Thatcher younger generation MPs - took a leaf from the book of Labour left’s dogmatism in 1979 and 1983; as it alienated moderate rationalist Conservatives who had reservations about her wholesale privatization campaigns, anti-Europe policies, and stubborn opposition to a Northern Ireland settlement. Eventually, Thatcher lost the trust of the party ‘establishment’, which brought her rule to an end, and replaced her by John Major.
This great second lesson was that ‘dogmatism’ and ‘populism’ may be beneficial for some time, but would later lead to the situation best described by the great Arab poet Al-Mutanabbi, who said:
“He who makes a lion his hunting falcon will end up among the preys!”
In fact, ‘dogmatic’ extremism – be they religious or ethnic – as well as populist incitement, feed on themselves, and eventually consume become self-defeating.
This is exactly what we witnessed, during the last few weeks in the USA, after President Donald Trump refused to recognize the fairness of the Presidential Elections, and fought against the media, the election authorities (even in Republican-run states), the judiciary, the Constitution and advances technology.
The turning point, however, was calling on his extremist thuggish supporters to march on Washington, and attack the US Congress, in order to prevent the constitutional transfer of power.
Indeed, Trump stuck stubbornly to his guns, despite receiving several warning signs that should have alerted him to the risk he was taking, including:
1- Some states agreeing to and eventually carrying out recounts.
2- The decisive stance of the Chairman of the Joint Staff of the US Armed Forces, who clearly said that their loyalty was always to the Constitution.
3- The position of the US Supreme Court, where conservative justices make up the majority; among who are three Trump appointees.
4- Some pro-Trump ultra-conservative media outlets stopping their unfounded claims of election fraud after being threatened by counting companies with legal action.
Attacking the Capitol, home of the legislative power, is an exceptional event in the history of any nation that takes pride in its democratic system. But, here this was happening as a result of direct incitement from the nation’s president; i.e. the guardian of its constitution!
This is why the positions of many leading Republicans changed, despite threats to themselves and their families from thuggish armed gangs.
Yet, although there are legal justifications to punish Trump, there are also more realistic political considerations, which may more rewarding, even to those seeking revenge.
The effective punishment for exploiting those thuggish gangs would be for the Republicans to ‘learn the lesson’, and begin a process of saving their party, by ridding it of the pockets of extremism, before it is too late.

Biden and the Arab Region… Reality and Ambition
Ahmed Abul Gheit/Ahmed Abul Gheit is the Secretary General of the Arab League./Asharq Al Awsat/January, 26/2021
President Joseph Biden takes the helm of the United States, at a crucial moment whether at the local or international scene, as the world is facing an unprecedented common challenge, in terms of cruelty, magnitude and repercussions: the Covid-19 pandemic.
We are facing a moment fraught with various dangers and open to different possibilities. It is a moment that requires a capable leadership. I believe that President Biden, with his background and proven experience, is qualified to play a historic role, whether in the US home or in his country’s influence on the world.
The speech delivered by President Biden on Jan. 20 carried clear indications to the way to the future. It reflected a sincere tendency to restore unity and consensus, and overcome polarization. These are values and principles that America and the world need today, in light of the dangerous competition between major powers, the rise of right-wing populism, the growth of racist movements and the economic decline in the wake of the pandemic, in addition to climate change, environmental degradation and others. All of those are pressing challenges that undoubtedly require an cohesive and proactive US leadership.
The United States plays an influential and critical role in global stability. I would like to write here specifically about a key aspect of this role in the world – the one pertaining to the US policy towards the Arab region.
The Palestinian file is perhaps one of the issues that will require the new administration to take a different approach.
Any fair observer will realize the bitterness the Palestinians feel about the injustice and marginalization they have been exposed to, and the attempts to impose a unilateral vision of the final solution, which is not based on any of the known references, but totally reflects the Israeli vision.
There is an urgent need to restore the Palestinians’ confidence in the peaceful political path, as the only way to fulfill their national aspirations for an independent state according to the 1967 borders. There is also an urgent need to restore confidence in the approach of the two-state solution as the basis for settlement, a matter that has been shaken and questioned during the last period.
The new US administration will hopefully restore confidence in its role as a neutral mediator in a peace process, in which international and Arab parties engage, whether within the framework of the International Quartet (after expanding it by including Arab voices), or in any international framework that guarantees the mobilization of the efforts to achieve peace in the Middle East.
The peace agreements recently signed between a number of Arab states and Israel may contribute to creating a positive climate of trust, thus helping address the essence of the conflict. What’s more important is that the Israeli side should not imagine that these agreements are an alternative to the settlement and the two-state solution.
The Arab region - despite its problems - is not a land that only cultivates despair and pain. There are important positive steps underway that must be built upon in the next stage. The reconciliation that I personally attended in the Saudi city of AlUla on Jan. 5 is a major milestone in the right direction.
All those who attended this Gulf summit and examined its outcome, sensed the parties’ determination to overcome this difficult stage in intra-Arab relations and perhaps establish a new phase, in which joint Arab action would regain the necessary momentum and confront common challenges. This opens a promising horizon for cooperation with the US administration based on understanding and trust between all parties.
Our region has been suffering from a decade of instability and turmoil that has weighed heavily on the security of its countries and their economic and social conditions. The wounds have not healed and the human cost of the conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Libya is inconceivable.
In other Arab countries, such as Iraq, Lebanon and Sudan, peoples and governments are struggling to reach a balance of political and social stability, amid pressures that have multiplied due to the pandemic and its impact. The decline in commercial and economic activity, the drop of oil prices and the revenues of the tourism and travel industry will not affect the oil-exporting countries alone, but will have clear negative consequences for the overall economic and social conditions in the Arab region for years.
The most dangerous problem facing the region remains the continuation of internal conflicts in a number of countries, which are causing exorbitant human losses.
In Yemen, UN envoy Martin Griffiths is exerting a remarkable effort to make the warring parties agree on a “joint declaration” that includes a ceasefire and other humanitarian and economic measures in order to build confidence and pave the way for a comprehensive political agreement. There is no doubt that the diplomatic weight of the United States is required to push forward these initiatives and turn them into a new reality that gives millions of people hope that this conflict would end, especially as its humanitarian costs are increasing by the day, while the party causing it - the Houthi militia - seem indifferent. Indeed, the group has abandoned its independent political voice in favor of well-known regional parties that seek to prolong the conflict.
In Syria, the international and regional rivalry is still ongoing. The country is torn apart by foreign agendas, after nearly half of its population has become refugees and displaced. It is an unsustainable situation that strikes at the heart of regional stability. We have to move quickly in order to save what is left of this country. The first step is to build the necessary consensus between the influential forces and those involved in this conflict based on a peaceful solution within the framework of UN resolution 2254.
In Libya, we are seeing a clearer desire for consensus between the parties. Talks and agreements are underway to organize the elections at the end of this year. The US diplomatic role is required in order to seize this current opportunity.
Moreover, this role is needed in Lebanon, which suffers from political paralysis and a frightening economic deterioration, due to the prevailing conflicts of interest and severe internal political polarization fueled by unfavorable external influences. It is important for the United States to assume a positive role in order to help this prestigious Arab country to reach political and economic safety.
One common factor is present in all these conflicts and problems: the malicious regional interference.
Conflicts have weakened the structure of the Arab system, and made it vulnerable to dangerous and unprecedented interference by parties that seek to have a greater influence in our region.
I am talking here, frankly and clearly, about Iran and Turkey, which over the past years have practiced a kind of “regional bullying” against Arab countries, reaching the point of imposing a direct military presence on the national soil of a number of states. This situation needs a comprehensive and firm solution, because it increases the risks of conflicts in our region, and makes existing battles more complex.
Iran and its nuclear file represent a major challenge to US foreign policy in the Middle East in general. In this regard, it is important for me to emphasize that any international resolution to the “Iranian file” must take into account Arab concerns.
What preoccupies the Arabs, in the first place, is the Iranian behavior, which is not only characterized by recklessness and open hostility towards some of our countries, but excessive selfishness as well. The Arabs want a normal neighborhood relationship with Iran - with which we share a long history and cultural, civilizational and religious ties - on the basis of mutual respect and non-interference in internal affairs.
It is important to recall in this regard that the approach pushed for by the Obama administration, in the form of the nuclear agreement, lacked an element of sustainability, because it did not address the concerns and fears of many parties.
I believe that the new administration has an opportunity to find a different way to address this issue of extreme impact on regional security, in consultation and consensus with all concerned parties.
If we move from regional interactions and problems to the internal conditions of Arab countries, we immediately notice that there is an effort by promising and sincere Arab leaders to change societies, and to give the youth, who constitute the overwhelming majority of the population, a better future.
Many Arab leaders are waging a fervent struggle to create an appropriate environment for modernization, against currents and groups that threaten the social fabric.
President Biden, in his keynote speech on Inauguration Day, spoke of the unity of the social fabric as the principal goal of any society in facing challenges. The truth is that our Arab societies are, in turn, facing a serious threat to their cohesion at the hands of forces that adopt an extremist religious rhetoric, and do not hesitate to practice maximum violence against the civilian population.
The real fight over the future of our region is not between religions or sects. Rather, I see it between advocates of modernity, rationality and the values of citizenship and the national state on the one hand, and between the ideology and approach of violent groups and supporters of religious rule on the other. I am confident that the new administration is well aware of which side the United States should take in this decisive conflict.
Backing the supporters of modernization does not mean a complete convergence of vision. We will hopefully succeed in working together by curbing the differences, without affecting our ability to cooperate and move together in order to win this major battle over the future of the region.
The experience of the past ten years, despite its difficulty and cruelty, provides us with lessons that allow us to distinguish between right and the wrong.
Intense Western pressure to accelerate the pace of change has led to the explosion of a number of Arab countries, at the political and social levels, with all the security and humanitarian consequences that this entailed.
The approach of political and media pressures does not fulfill the aim of political, economic and social modernization in the countries of the region.
I am certain that President Biden’s administration has the expertise, experience and vision to conduct this necessary review for the sake of the future.

Biden Has a Once-in-a-Century Chance to Fix Capitalism
Joe Nocera/Bloomberg/January, 26/2021
In November, I told the story of DemeTech Corp., a family-owned manufacturer of surgical products in Miami. Although the company had never made personal protective equipment, when the pandemic hit last spring, it hired around 600 workers and invested several million dollars to get into the PPE business. It was soon manufacturing N95 masks and other equipment that hospitals needed urgently. Sales took off. Because of the higher labor costs in the US, the company’s masks were more expensive than those made in China. With PPE so difficult to come by, buyers didn’t care. Yet by November, when I interviewed the company’s vice president, Luis Arguello Jr., Chinese companies had started winning back some of that business. It was a business — like so many manufacturing-based industries — that the Chinese had largely taken over during the previous two decades, according to Marc Schessel, a hospital supply-chain expert. With more and more hospitals owned either by private equity firms or for-profit corporations, “there was a lot of pressure to lower costs,” Schessel said. By the time the pandemic hit, 3M Co., which had invented the N95 mask, was the only significant US manufacturer. Companies in China, Malaysia and Vietnam made most of the PPE used in the US; these companies had become critical components in the hospital supply chain. When that supply chain broke down in the wake of the coronavirus, it exposed a significant US vulnerability.
I was surprised to learn then that as the N95 shortage eased a bit — in large part because hospital professionals were reusing masks meant to be discarded after one use — distributors and hospitals had reverted to buying from Chinese companies. They were putting price ahead of stability, just as they had before the pandemic.
“Despite everything,” I wrote at the time, it appeared to Arguello that “distributors and hospitals care more about saving a few pennies than ensuring a supply of US-made masks.” Arguello said that if the government didn’t get involved, none of the US companies that had begun manufacturing PPE — which they had done to help the country through this emergency — were likely to stay in the business. This not only had national security implications, it also meant the loss of thousands of good-paying jobs that DemeTech and others had created during the pandemic.
In the weeks before the inauguration of President Joe Biden, I kept thinking about DemeTech. Biden has a tremendously ambitious agenda, but his twin priorities, as he has said repeatedly, are to get the pandemic under control and to fix a coronavirus-battered economy.
In the short term, he’ll be pushing a $1.9 trillion stimulus package aimed at helping Americans and businesses survive the pandemic. His stimulus bill includes doubling the national minimum wage to $15 an hour. He wants to raise the top corporate tax rate to 28% and impose an alternative minimum tax on companies with more than $100 million in net income. And, of course, he has talked repeatedly about creating the kind of middle-class jobs that characterized the US economy in the decades after World War II.
These are all worthy and important objectives. But if the Biden administration is serious about transforming the economy, it needs to go further. It needs to enlist US industry in a push to change the values that now dominate American capitalism. It needs to help instill values that, for instance, give more weight to having domestically made hospitals equipment over saving a few dollars. To put it another way, the US needs to reclaim the kind of capitalism that existed before the 1980s, when the financialization of American business — and the belief that Wall Street was the only thing that mattered — began. And maybe, just maybe, the experience of the pandemic can help show the way.

Biden's Amnesty Won't Attract New Waves of Immigrants
Noah Smith/Bloomberg/January, 26/2021
The centerpiece of President Joe Biden’s broad proposal for immigration reform is an eight-year path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants. This would be the boldest amnesty since Ronald Reagan signed the Immigration Reform and Control Act in 1986. It's also likely to prompt the same fear: That fresh waves of immigrants will be inspired to cross our southern border illegally in the hope of future legalization.
Most studies conclude that there are somewhere around 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the US. A few argue that there are about twice that number. But what all the studies agree on is that the unauthorized population has been falling since 2007.
Critics and skeptics of Biden’s path to citizenship will have one big question: Will amnesty cause this trend to reverse? Will the US once more be flooded with millions of undocumented immigrants who believe they’ll eventually get an amnesty of their own? And won’t that leave the US right back where it started, with a huge population of residents forced to effectively live underground, subject to exploitation by employers who ignore labor laws?
Reagan’s legalization campaign has often been accused of doing just that. In fact, though, it probably didn't. Illegal immigration briefly surged in 1986 (probably in anticipation of the amnesty), but after that it fell modestly for several years before resuming its upward climb in the late 1990s. Researchers have generally concluded that Reagan’s reform, which also included a substantial increase in immigration enforcement, actually reduced illegal immigration modestly.
Upon reflection, it makes little sense that such legalization programs would draw a wave of new unauthorized immigrants. If Biden’s bill passes this year, it will have been 34 years since the last amnesty. Who would move to a country in anticipation of decades of living underground and working crappy jobs, just for the chance they’d get to start on a path to citizenship some 30 years down the road?
In fact, there are even bigger reasons to argue that a new amnesty won't bring an influx of people across the border. The first is that Mexico — historically the primary source of unauthorized immigrants — has a much lower fertility rate now. Back when Reagan granted his amnesty, the typical Mexican woman could expect to have four kids over the course of her life. Now that’s down to about two.
Fewer kids means fewer excess people to send north in search of work. It means young Mexicans will need to stay home to care for aging parents and take over family businesses.
Also, Mexico’s economy is now much richer than it was in Reagan’s time. In terms of purchasing power parity, its per capita GDP is more than $20,000, almost half that of the US. That's not quite a developed country yet, but no longer a poor one either, and well past the point where emigration tends to fall off.
So immigration pressure from Mexico is decreasing. But conditions in the US have also changed. The kind of construction jobs that many unauthorized immigrants worked in the 1990s and 2000s are much less available. Multiple initiatives to increase border enforcement, including the Secure Fence Act of 2006, have made the border much harder to cross. Bill Clinton’s 1996 welfare reform law denied many government benefits to undocumented immigrants. And that’s in addition to the creation of a dedicated Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, and a generally stricter apparatus of internal immigration controls.
So where Mexicans in Reagan’s day looked north and saw a welcoming land of opportunity across a generally unguarded border, today America feels like a much more forbidding country.
That’s why the only significant source of migrants crossing the US-Mexico border is now a handful of violent and impoverished Central American countries: Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. These are the sources of the “caravans” of asylum seekers that periodically grab headlines, and which Trump worked so hard to stop. Illegal immigration from Central America is fairly modest, but it does exist:
It’s possible that a Biden legalization program would encourage more caravans from Central America, but it seems unlikely. These people’s first and foremost hope for immigration to the US is asylum, not illegal immigration, and amnesty doesn’t affect the asylum process. Meanwhile, fertility is falling in Central American countries as well, while their economies are growing. And all the factors that make the US a less attractive destination than it was 20 years ago apply to Central Americans as well.
So a Biden amnesty is not likely to bring a new flood of illegal immigration. Barring a climate disaster or other catastrophe that creates masses of refugees, people simply have far fewer reasons to cross the US southern border now. The big wave of Latin American immigration is over.