English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 19/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news
 

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Bible Quotations For today

Later the other bridesmaids came also, saying, “Lord, lord, open to us.” But he replied, “Truly I tell you, I do not know you.”Keep awake therefore, for you know neither the day nor the hour
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 25/01-13: “‘Then the kingdom of heaven will be like this. Ten bridesmaids took their lamps and went to meet the bridegroom. Five of them were foolish, and five were wise. When the foolish took their lamps, they took no oil with them; but the wise took flasks of oil with their lamps. As the bridegroom was delayed, all of them became drowsy and slept. But at midnight there was a shout, “Look! Here is the bridegroom! Come out to meet him.” Then all those bridesmaids got up and trimmed their lamps. The foolish said to the wise, “Give us some of your oil, for our lamps are going out.” But the wise replied, “No! there will not be enough for you and for us; you had better go to the dealers and buy some for yourselves.” And while they went to buy it, the bridegroom came, and those who were ready went with him into the wedding banquet; and the door was shut. Later the other bridesmaids came also, saying, “Lord, lord, open to us.” But he replied, “Truly I tell you, I do not know you.”Keep awake therefore, for you know neither the day nor the hour.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 18-19/2021

Health Ministry: 3,144 new Covid-19 cases, 53 deaths
Lebanon Records Its Highest Virus Death Toll
Lebanon’s Hezbollah erects Soleimani statues, dividing supporters on Iran propaganda
Berri reiterates at International Parliamentary Conference on Supporting Palestinian Intifada rejection of Palestinian resettlement
Report: France Urges Saudi Arabia to Prevent Lebanon’s Collapse
Berri: Lebanon Enduring an Undeclared Blockade
Report: Tripartite Baabda Meeting Fails to Convene on Demarcation 'Decree'
Report: Ibrahim Meets Aoun, Hariri in Bid to Implement al-Rahi's Initiative
UK Donates 100 Armored Vehicles to Lebanese Army
Akar Urges End to Israeli Violations in Talks with UNIFIL Chief
Geagea Renews Call for Early Polls to Overcome 'Catastrophe'
Ship sails from UK bound for Lebanon with 100 armoured patrol vehicles donated by British Government to LAF
Journalist Radwan Mortada released on his own recognizance
US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 17-18/2021

Biden Pushes Unity Two Days before Taking Over Crisis-Laden White House
Israelis Raced in Dakar Rally in Saudi Arabia, Says Team Manager
Iraq calls on Iran to help stop attacks in Baghdad Green Zone
Recovery and growth for Gulf countries in 2021
Clashes erupt in Sudan's South Darfur, 47 people killed: Tribal leader
IMF says working ‘very intensively’ with Sudan to move toward debt relief
Palestinian PM Shtayyeh urges EU to send observers to long-awaited elections
First Qatar-Egypt flight since 2017 takes off from Doha
Russian Gets Six Years for Putin Party Office Vandalism
Kuwait's emir accepts resignation of cabinet - state news agency
Navalny Urges Russians to 'Take to the Streets' over Jailing
Russia Expels Two Dutch Diplomats In Tit-for-tat Move
UN Secretary-General appoints Mr. Ján Kubiš of Slovakia as his Special Envoy on Libya
Trouble at Home May Change Biden's Hand in Iran Nuclear Talks

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 17-18/2021

Iran’s line of succession in doubt amid Khamenei concerns/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 17/2021
How young Americans view foreign policy/Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/January 18/2021
Global economic recovery should top Biden’s agenda/Afshin Molavi/Arab News/January 18/2021
US designation may be first step toward Houthis’ delegitimization/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 18/2021
 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 17-18/2021

Health Ministry: 3,144 new Covid-19 cases, 53 deaths
NNA/January 17/2021  
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Monday that 3,144 new Coronavirus cases have been reported, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 255,956. It also indicated that 53 deaths have been registered during the past 24 hours.

Lebanon Records Its Highest Virus Death Toll
Naharnet/January 17/2021
Lebanon on Monday reported 53 new coronavirus deaths, a new record high daily death toll for the small country. It also registered 3,144 new virus cases in a 24-period, the Health Ministry said. The new fatalities raise the overall death toll to 1,959. The fresh cases meanwhile take the country’s overall tally since February 21 to 255,956 cases -- among them 3,657 cases detected among arriving travelers and 154,611 recoveries. Lebanon, a country of more than 6 million, including at least 1 million refugees, has seen a massive climb in infections since Christmas and New Year holidays. The surge has overwhelmed hospitals and the health care system. During the holiday season, restrictions in place for months to combat the virus were eased to encourage spending by some 80,000 expatriates who returned home to celebrate. As infections increased and ICU beds filled up, authorities imposed the strictest lockdown yet starting last Thursday, hoping that restrictions in place until February 1 could help contain the rise. In recent weeks, between 4,000 and 5,000 infections were recorded a day and a rise in daily death tolls, up from numbers that hovered around 1,000 since November.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah erects Soleimani statues, dividing supporters on Iran propaganda
Mona Alami/Al Arabiya English/Monday 18 January 2021
Traditionally adorned with pictures of Iranian proxy group Hezbollah’s martyrs and leaders, the southern suburbs of Beirut, the party’s bastion, are now lined with Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) iconography, but many of the terrorist organization’s supporters have remained opposed to the move.
Statues, billboards and posters of IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani – killed by US airstrikes in Iraq in January 2020 – have been erected across the suburb’s populous neighborhoods as well as on the highway connecting the international airport to the capital Beirut. Many Lebanese have decried Hezbollah’s campaign, viewed as a symbol of Iranian domination of Lebanon. Hezbollah’s popular base is no stranger to the debate, with many long-time supporters of the terrorist organization opposed to what they criticize as a provocative campaign to other Lebanese communities at a time when the country is suffering an unprecedented economic and political crisis. “Despite Iran’s support to our struggle against Israel, we should not erect pictures of Iranian military or symbols, if that is perceived as offensive to a large tranche of the Lebanese population, at a time when the country is facing so many political and economic challenges,” Ali, a nurse hailing from Dahieh, the colloquial name referring to the Southern suburbs of Beirut, said. On the eve of the anniversary of Soleimani’s death, Hezbollah engaged in a wide campaign celebrating the Iranian commander “martyrdom” against the Americans. Hezbollah militants were also seen distributing posters and headbands featuring Soleimani’s name with the mention “Jerusalem and Karbala are his destiny”. In the southern Lebanese village of Arabsalim, a model depicting the moment a US drone missile struck Soleimani’s vehicle on its way out of Baghdad’s airport was placed on the main road. The militant group also erected a statue of the Iranian General in the southern Lebanese town of Maroun al-Ras. The bronze bust of Soleimani, was also placed in Ghobeiry, in the southern suburbs by the local municipality, to commemorate the general’s death. Ahmad, a grocery store owner, echoed the Ali’s statements, noting that placing the general’s pictures in areas outside of Hezbollah’s natural dominion would only infuriate other Lebanese and further marginalize Shiites.
Iranian cultural colonialism
Other Shiites view the commemoration of Soleimani’s death as a form of cultural colonialism. “As a victim of the Israeli invasion of South Lebanon, I support the Resistance [Hezbollah]. But I do not see why we should erect statues to Soleimani, a person who is foreign to our culture and our Lebanese identity,” said Nada a physiotherapist from South Lebanon. Lokman Slim, an anti-Hezbollah activist, emphasized that while a section of Hezbollah’s traditional popular base may criticize the party’s increasing pro-Iranian propaganda in Lebanon, few publicly oppose it. “Shiites may view these theatrics as provocative to other Lebanese, but they remain part of a silent opposition, which only criticizes the party behind closed doors,” Slim said. Amal, a beautician living in the southern suburbs explained that no one can challenge the creeping Iranian influence in southern areas. “We may not be happy with it, but we have no other choice but to accept it,” she added fatalistically. For anti-Hezbollah activist and Janoubia editor Ali Amine, Hezbollah’s latest campaign in commemoration of Soleimani’s death aims to root Lebanese Shiite identity in Iranian military and religious references. “Hezbollah has done much more in terms of propaganda for the death of Soleimani than for after the killing of its own commander Imad Mughnieh. Hezbollah is attempting to impose and normalize Iranian cultural references on its Shiite constituency,” he added.

Berri reiterates at International Parliamentary Conference on Supporting Palestinian Intifada rejection of Palestinian resettlement
NNA/January 17/2021
In his video speech on Monday at the opening session of the International Parliamentary Conference in Support of the Palestinian Intifada, hosted by the Iranian capital, Tehran, House Speaker Nabih Berri, reiterated utter rejection of Palestinian resettlement. "We underline our rejection of any attempt to impose resettlement under any rubric,” Speaker Berri stressed, calling for adherence to the resistance option. Berri indicated that Lebanon is suffering from a prevailing political, economic, financial, living and health crisis that is the most dangerous in its modern history, not to mention an undeclared blockade due to its support and commitment to the resistance and its sovereignty rights.
Berri renewed Lebanon's commitment to its national constants and its adherence to the elements of its strengths represented by the resistance and its sovereign rights over its land, borders, and wealth resources.On the other hand, the Speaker warned "of the seriousness of the deterioration of the health situation in the Gaza Strip due to the spread of the Coronavirus under the unjust blockade, and same applies to the West Bank and the occupied territories," saying: "the international community is called upon to secure vaccines for Gaza."

Report: France Urges Saudi Arabia to Prevent Lebanon’s Collapse
Naharnet/January 17/2021
A phone call between French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman broke the political stalemate in the problematic Lebanese file, Nidaa al-Watan newspaper reported on Monday. The daily said it obtained information from sources following up on the Lebanese file, that “Macron had contacted Salman on Saturday, wishing he provides help for Lebanon to prevent its collapse.”But they added that the Saudi stance showed "no enthusiasm" in that regard, saying that “the Saudi position remains unchanged."Saudi Arabia believes "the Lebanese should pick their choices better. Support can not be provided for those who choose to share governance with Hizbullah and Iran. Saudi Arabia will not help those who pursue an alliance with those who fight it and seek to destabilize it," the sources concluded.

Berri: Lebanon Enduring an Undeclared Blockade
Naharnet/January 17/2021
Speaker Nabih Berri on Monday said Lebanon is enduring an “undeclared blockade” as a result of its commitment to its principles, stressing that the country will never relinquish its oil and gas rights. “Lebanon is under an undeclared blockade as the result of its commitment to its principles, resistance and sovereign rights,” said Berri in online remarks at the opening session of the International Conference on Supporting the Palestinian Intifada hosted by Iran. “Allow me in this urgency to renew from Lebanon, which is suffering at present from the most serious political, economic, financial, living and health crisis in its history, and an undeclared blockade,” to pressure it into “abandoning its commitments towards the Palestinian cause,” said Berri. The Speaker stressed that Lebanon will not relinquish its rights in its oil and gas wealth, despite the pressures.
 

Report: Tripartite Baabda Meeting Fails to Convene on Demarcation 'Decree'
Naharnet/January 17/2021
Caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab asked for a “tripartite” meeting between the heads of the State at Baabda Palace, to decide on a Republican Decree defining the exclusive maritime area of 2,290 square kilometers for Lebanon, which Israel contests, al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Monday.
Diab has called for the meeting reportedly in order to deposit the maps with the United Nations which is overseeing Lebanon’s indirect talks with Israel. According to information obtained by the daily, Baabda took over the preparation for the meeting, but Speaker Nabih Berri expressed rejection of such a move.
Berri said that he made his position “clear and known” during an earlier meeting he made with Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs, in the presence of the negotiating delegation, that he is against sending the decree to the United Nations. Berri argues that any future “fall back” in the negotiations will mean a "waiver" of Lebanese rights, said the daily. In October, Lebanon and Israel began indirect maritime border demarcations talks under US and UN auspices. But the talks experienced complications, in light of Lebanon's demands for rights based on the international land border point established in 1922, which gives it an additional marine area of 2,290 square kilometers. Meanwhile, Israel rejects the Lebanese maps “supported by topographical, historical and geographical documents,” and wants to start from old coordinates, which is a memorandum sent to the United Nations in 2011, including a notice of initial agreement on a border point between their maritime borders, which limits the border dispute to only 860 square kilometers.
 

Report: Ibrahim Meets Aoun, Hariri in Bid to Implement al-Rahi's Initiative
Naharnet/January 17/2021
General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim has met with President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri in an endeavor to implement the initiative of Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi regarding the formation of the new government, al-Jadeed TV said. Al-Jadeed also reported Monday that Aoun and Hariri are still “clinging to their stances.”“The president will not apologize or invite Hariri to the Baabda Palace and the PM-designate is insisting on his cabinet line-up,” the TV network said. Al-Rahi had recently called on Aoun and Hariri to hold a “personal reconciliation meeting” and agree on a line-up for the new government.
 

UK Donates 100 Armored Vehicles to Lebanese Army
Naharnet/January 17/2021
A ship will on Monday set sail from the south coast of the UK bound for Lebanon with 100 armored patrol vehicles (Land Rover RWMIK) donated by the British Government to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), the British embassy said. These vehicles, worth £1.5 million, will "further reinforce the stability on the Lebanese border with Syria and help the LAF to counter efforts by terrorists and smugglers to cross into the country," the embassy said in a statement. "With UK support in recent years, we have seen the deployment of four Land Border Regiments (LBRs), the construction of over 75 border towers, provision of 350 Land Rovers, and training of over 11,000 LAF personnel to effectively counter extremists and smugglers seeking to infiltrating Lebanon from Syria," the statement added. Chargé d’Affairs a.i. Martin Longden said: "I am delighted that the UK has been able to help with this donation. These vehicles will make a real difference to the work of the Land Border Regiments, whose efforts make life safer for all communities in Lebanon." "It’s a great practical example of the friendship and collaboration between the armed forces of our two countries, and the UK’s genuine commitment to a strong and stable Lebanon," he added.
 

Akar Urges End to Israeli Violations in Talks with UNIFIL Chief
Naharnet/January 17/2021
Caretaker Deputy PM and Defense Minister Zeina Akar on Monday held talks in Yarze with UNIFIL chief Maj. Gen. Stefano Del Col. During the meeting, Akar denounced “the abduction of Lebanese shepherd Hassan Zahra and the continuous Israeli violations against Lebanon,” her press office said.
She also stressed the need to “halt the repeated aggression and violations by the Israeli enemy and Lebanon’s rejection of any infringement on its territorial, maritime and aerial sovereignty.” “The Israeli side must implement the international resolutions, especially Resolution 1701 with all its stipulations,” Akar told Del Col, while lauding “the efforts that UNIFIL has been exerting in coordination and cooperation with the Lebanese Army to address these issues.”Separately, Akar and Del Col discussed the issue of the coronavirus crisis and “the possibility that nations taking part in the UNIFIL force offer medical assistance to the residents of the South for precaution against this pandemic.”

Geagea Renews Call for Early Polls to Overcome 'Catastrophe'
Naharnet/January 17/2021
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Monday reiterated his call for early parliamentary elections in the face of the country’s multiple and compounded crises. “Over the past year and three months, the Lebanese people have been enduring the biggest protracted crime in Lebanon’s modern history,” Geagea said in a written statement. “The nation is bleeding, the people are groaning and screaming, economy is deteriorating, institutions are collapsing, the state is declining and fear for the fate is growing, whereas the ruling majority is clinging to its positions and standing idly by,” the LF leader explained.
He lamented that “this camp is dealing with the crisis with full carelessness, as if it is happening in another country. We have not witnessed a change in policies nor a replacement of the adopted approach,” Geagea lamented. He accordingly urged everyone to become convinced, like the LF, that “the Lebanese can only find salvation from this catastrophe through early parliamentary elections.”

Ship sails from UK bound for Lebanon with 100 armoured patrol vehicles donated by British Government to LAF
NNA/January 17/2021
The UK Embassy in Lebanon issued the following press release: “Today, a ship sets sail from the south coast of the UK bound for Lebanon with 100 armoured patrol vehicles (Land Rover RWMIK) donated by the British Government to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). These vehicles, worth £1.5 million, will further reinforce the stability on the Lebanese border with Syria and help the LAF to counter efforts by terrorists and smugglers to cross into the country. With UK support in recent years, we have seen the deployment of four Land Border Regiments (LBRs), the construction of over 75 border towers, provision of 350 Land Rovers, and training of over 11,000 LAF personnel to effectively counter extremists and smugglers seeking to infiltrating Lebanon from Syria. Chargé d’Affairs a.i. Dr. Martin Longden said: ‘I am delighted that the UK has been able to help with this donation. These vehicles will make a real difference to the work of the Land Border Regiments, whose efforts make life safer for all communities in Lebanon. It’s a great practical example of the friendship and collaboration between the armed forces of our two countries, and the UK’s genuine commitment to a strong and stable Lebanon.’
 

Journalist Radwan Mortada released on his own recognizance
NNA/January 17/2021
State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat has decided to release journalist Radwan Mortada on his own recognizance after questioning him on charges of contempt of the military institution, our correspondent reported on Monday.
 

US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
NNA/January 17/2021
The Money Changers Syndicate announced in a statement addressed to money changing companies and institutions, Monday's USD exchange rate against the Lebanese pound as follows:
Buying price at a minimum of LBP 3850
Selling price at a maximum of LBP 3900

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 17-18/2021

Biden Pushes Unity Two Days before Taking Over Crisis-Laden White House
Agence France Presse/January 17/2021
Just 48 hours before becoming president, Joe Biden pressed Monday for unity, while President Donald Trump remained secluded in the White House at the center of a capital inundated with troops and security barriers. Biden was marking the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday with a trip from his home in Delaware to Philadelphia to perform community service -- a gesture symbolizing his call for Americans to come together after four divisive years. "Service is a fitting way to start to heal, unite, and rebuild this country we love," Biden said in a video marking the occasion. But the 78-year-old Democrat's fervent appeals for optimism and healing -- which are also set to dominate his inauguration ceremony at noon on Wednesday -- are running up against the hard reality of multiple crises. Covid-19 is out of control, vaccine distribution is stumbling, and economic recovery remains in the balance. And after Trump refused for more than two months to accept the results of November's presidential election the country is seething with division and anger. When Biden takes the oath of office at noon on Wednesday, he will face a city under the protection of 20,000 National Guard soldiers. Checkpoints and large zones closed to ordinary citizens mean there will be only a smattering of guests. Similar lockdowns have been imposed at state capitol buildings around the country where local authorities fear provocations from right-wing groups ahead of the inauguration. A brief security scare on Monday near Congress sparked an evacuation of the site where Biden will take the oath.
Trump mulls pardons
Trump, who has still not congratulated Biden or invited him for the traditional tea visit in the Oval Office, has been largely out of the public eye since his supporters rampaged through Congress on January 6, triggering his historic second impeachment a week later. According to U.S. media, one of Trump's final actions could be announced Tuesday at the latest: scores of pardons for convicted criminals. Speculation is mounting over whether Trump will take the unprecedented and legally murky step of issuing himself and his children, who work as campaign and White House advisors, preemptive pardons. According to CNN and other outlets, Trump has a list of about 100 people he will grant clemency. After what The New York Times reports has been an intense lobbying effort, these are expected to be a mix of white collar criminals and people whose cases have been championed by criminal justice activists.
More controversial possible pardons that have been the subject of speculation for months would be for the likes of Edward Snowden, Julian Assange and Trump's influential advisor Stephen Bannon. If Trump gave himself or his children a pardon -- something currently not expected, according to latest US reports -- that would ensure a politically explosive finale to one of the most polarizing presidencies in U.S. history. A self pardon might also harden anger at Trump among Republicans in the Senate, which is expected to start an impeachment trial soon.
Inauguration snub
Trump, the first president to lose reelection since George H.W. Bush was replaced by Bill Clinton, is skipping Biden's inauguration -- the first ex-president to snub his successor in a century and a half. On Wednesday, he'll travel to his Mar-a-Lago golf club residence in Florida, departing the White House early in order to benefit from full presidential travel privileges up to the last minute. Marine One will take him from the White House to Joint Base Andrews to catch Air Force One -- the presidential plane that will no longer be his to use from noon. According to a Bloomberg report, Trump is organizing a military style sendoff for himself at Andrews.

Israelis Raced in Dakar Rally in Saudi Arabia, Says Team Manager
Agence France Presse/January 17/2021
Israeli drivers participated in the latest Dakar Rally in Saudi Arabia, a country with which the Jewish state has no formal diplomatic ties but hopes to normalize relations, their manager said Monday. The FN Speed Team took part in the 7,000-kilometer (4,350-mile) race in the Saudi desert with two drivers who hold both Belgian and Israeli nationalities, the team's manager Omer Pearl told AFP. "We are proud to have made history by participating in this race," said Pearl, whose team finished second to last in the lightweight vehicles category. He confirmed that certain members of the team, which is sponsored by the Israeli geneology firm MyHeritage, had entered the Gulf kingdom using Israeli passports.
"We waited for weeks... for the authorization to enter the country with our Israeli passports to participate in this rally and we are glad we did not give up," he added. According to Israeli media, Israeli drivers also took part in the race with the American team CRV. The 42nd edition of the famed rally, the most grueling event on motorsport's calendar, was held in Saudi Arabia for the second year in a row. Israel in recent months has agreed US-sponsored deals on normalizing diplomatic ties with four Arab states: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. Regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia is often cited by analysts as another Arab nation that could follow suit. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu travelled to the Gulf kingdom in secret in November to meet with de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to Israeli media and Israeli officials who spoke to AFP. Saudi authorities have denied the visit took place.

Iraq calls on Iran to help stop attacks in Baghdad Green Zone
Arab News/January 18/2021
DUBAI: Baghdad was working to prevent further attacks on the Green Zone, Iraq’s Foreign Minister told AL Arabiya TV on Monday. The missile attacks on the Green Zone were embarrassing for the government, Fuad Hussein said, adding that a number of those connected to the attacks were arrested. “We are working with diplomatic missions to provide the necessary protection,” he said. Iraq asked Iran to participate in stopping those who target the Green Zone, the minister said. “Washington may take drastic measures if its embassy is targeted,” Hussein claimed. Tension between Washington and Iran negatively affects the Iraqi arena, according to the minister. Iraq, the minister asserted, was in need of coalition forces to confront Daesh, which he said was still present in border areas with Syria. Meanwhile on the upcoming elections, the foreign minister said that Iraq had discussed the participation of the United Nations to ensure a successful outcome.

Recovery and growth for Gulf countries in 2021
Richard Boxshall/Richard Boxshall/Sunday 17 January 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic and oil market disruptions made 2020 a year that none of us will forget. We enter 2021 with hope and optimism - thanks to breakthroughs on vaccines and testing - but also with an awareness that change in the region is accelerating. Below are the top five themes that will shape Gulf economies in 2021.
1. Recovery and growth…
While uncertainty remains about the speed of the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out, all signs point to 2021 being a return to growth for the Gulf. IHS Markit’s December 2020 forecast for 2021 suggests all Gulf countries will return to positive economic growth - with the median real GDP growth at 3.0%.
Constrained oil production levels will put a ceiling on total economic growth while also masking the strength of the rebound in the non-oil economy. Meanwhile, the gradual reopening of country borders supports markets like the United Arab Emirates. The renewal of economic and diplomatic ties with Qatar should also be a boon to economic growth in the Gulf. The biggest test for growth, however, will be in the fourth quarter (Q4) as all eyes turn to Dubai for Expo 2020.

2. ...but, uneven growth across sectors will be apparent…While I expect most sectors to grow in 2021, the pace of growth will be uneven due to the speed and adoption of the vaccine, economic policy decisions, broader economic performance, and consumer behavior. The demand for destruction in 2020, the tourism, hospitality, and aviation sectors should see strong year-over-year top-line growth in 2021. The Gulf may see a quicker recovery than other regions due to lower levels of COVID-19 spread, strong public health campaigns, and large events such as the rescheduled Expo 2020 and the 2022 FIFA World Cup boosting consumer demand. The financial sector may see margins under pressure as broader economic support provided by the government is gradually withdrawn, population declines in several markets and banks recognize provisions. Combining these factors will also weigh on the aviation sector, even with some of the initial recovery in demand expected in 2021. Economic growth will also be uneven in the broader Middle East, which may impact non-oil exports from the GCC. Egypt’s economy is expected to remain flat or slightly contract, Iraq is at risk of further currency devaluation, and Lebanon is facing a prolonged economic contraction.
3. ...and, there will likely be an acceleration of efforts to decarbonize economies
Gulf countries will continue to be the world’s primary producers of oil and natural gas for the foreseeable future, but COVID-19 has accelerated the decarburization trend. Oman’s new ban on single-use plastic bags, could kick-start a broader environmental trend in the region. We also expect further solar-power project awards as Dubai executes on its Clean Energy Strategy, and as Saudi Arabia builds on its recent success of awarding the lowest ever priced solar project.Some breakthroughs may also occur as Saudi Arabia scales up blue ammonia production, NEOM moves closer to building a hydrogen ammonia plan, and Oman creates a solar-powered hydrogen generation hub. The Saudi and Qatar stock exchanges are both also working to launch Environmental-Social-Governance (ESG) indices this year.
4. Policy innovation will accelerate...
The COVID-19 pandemic and oil market disruptions of 2020 forced Gulf countries to revisit long-held public policy positions. Uneven economic growth and continued fiscal pressure in 2021 will push governments to further innovate public policy to remain competitive.
The UAE has embarked on several economic policy innovations, including 100% foreign ownership of companies in the base economy, Dubai’s remote worker visa, and an expansion of the 10-year long term visa program. The policy reforms undertaken by the UAE in the past several months’ puts pressure on other Gulf countries to revisit their own policy positions in 2021 to remain attractive relative to the UAE. 5. ...driven, in part, by sovereigns looking to improve their government fiscal balance following the dual shock Fiscal policy for the region is likely to converge towards global common practices. We should hear more in 2021 about Oman’s planned personal income tax. We could also see more from Gulf countries on subsidy reforms and even corporate income tax as governments look to rein in fiscal deficits. 2021 could be the start of a multi-year process in which sovereigns focus on improving their fiscal positions through a mix of revenue increases, expenditure reductions, and spending efficiency gains. Finding opportunities to deliver more efficiently is important because all Gulf countries plan to cut back on government spending in their 2021 budgets (compared to pre-COVID levels). Even with these cuts, we forecast 2021 fiscal deficits to range from -4.1% (Bahrain) to -22% (Kuwait) of GDP. This year also marks the beginning of a large amount of Gulf sovereign debt reaching maturity - totaling nearly $20B in 2021 and rising to over $35B in 2023. Governments will likely refinance these maturing debts with new issuances often at higher interest rates. This may put pressure on domestic expenditures as increased interest payments crowd out other domestic spending.
Looking ahead
As we look towards 2021, we should take comfort in the likely fact that we will return to economic growth across the region while also being ready for the new experiences that lie ahead we should also prepare for the unexpected during an exciting year ahead.

Clashes erupt in Sudan's South Darfur, 47 people killed: Tribal leader
AFP/Khartoum/Monday 18 January 2021
Tribal clashes broke out Monday in Sudan’s South Darfur state, killing at least 47 people, a tribal leader said, shortly after violence in a neighboring state killed over 80 people. “A force from the Arab Rizeigat tribe killed 20 people in an attack on the village of Saadoun inhabited by the Fallata tribe using vehicles, motorcycles and camels,” said tribal leader Mohamed Saleh. “The attack left several houses burned,” said Saleh, from the ethnically non-Arab Fallata tribe, adding that bodies were still being counted. Monday’s violence came after the killing of at least 83 people in clashes between Arab and non-Arab tribes over two days in Sudan’s West Darfur state. The violent clashes in the two states come just over two weeks after the United Nations and the African Union ended their long-running joint peacekeeping mission in the vast Darfur region. Sudan has been undergoing a fragile transition since the April 2019 ouster of president Omar al-Bashir following mass protests against his autocratic rule. The civilian-majority administration installed after Bashir’s ouster has been pushing to stabilize regions beset by deadly conflict during his time in power. In October, the government signed a landmark peace deal with the main rebel groups, in a move that observers hoped would end fighting in conflict zones including Darfur. Only two groups refrained from signing the peace deal, including one with considerable support in Darfur. Darfur endured a bitter conflict from 2003 pitting African ethnic minority rebels against Arab nomads backed by the Khartoum government under Bashir. The conflict -- which left roughly 300,000 people dead and 2.5 million displaced -- has subsided over the years but ethnic and tribal clashes still flare periodically. These clashes largely occur between nomadic Arab pastoralists and settled farmers from non-Arab ethnic groups over land ownership and access to water.

IMF says working ‘very intensively’ with Sudan to move toward debt relief
Reuters/Monday 18 January 2021
The International Monetary Fund is working “very intensively” with Sudan to build the preconditions for broad debt relief, and will assess progress on a staff-monitored program in March, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday. She told reporters during an online news conference that she was encouraged by strong support from the United States, Britain and other member countries for providing debt relief to Sudan under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, and by the determination of the Sudanese authorities. “We do hope as swiftly as possible to present to the membership a strong case on Sudan for HIPC so that country can reintegrate with the international community,” Georgieva said. “I expect that in March we will have more to tell you.

Palestinian PM Shtayyeh urges EU to send observers to long-awaited elections
AFP/Monday 18 January 2021
The Palestinian prime minister on Monday called on the European Union to send observers to elections scheduled for later this year, specifically requesting EU monitors in Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem.Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas on Friday signed a decree setting legislative elections for May 22 and a presidential vote on July 31, in what would be the first Palestinian polls in 15 years. Ahead of a weekly cabinet meeting, prime minister Mohammed Shtayyeh called on the EU “to prepare a team of international observers to help us, mainly in the election process in Jerusalem.” Israel annexed east Jerusalem following the 1967 Six Day in a move never recognized by most of the international community, which considers the area occupied Palestinian territory. Israel bans all activities of the Palestinian Authority, based in the occupied West Bank, inside Jerusalem, a city labelled Israel’s “undivided capital” by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. There has been no indication that Israel would allow Palestinian election activity within east Jerusalem. “We will formally ask Israel to allow our people in Jerusalem to participate in the elections,” Shtayyeh stressed. Brussels on Friday said it welcomed Abbas’s election call and urged Israel to “facilitate the holding of these elections throughout the Palestinian territory,” including east Jerusalem. The Palestinian polls have been scheduled amid warming ties between Abbas’s Fatah party, with controls the PA, and their long-standing rivals Hamas, the Islamist that hold power in Gaza.
The 2005 Palestinian presidential vote saw Abbas elected with 62 percent support to replace the late Yasser Arafat. In the last Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006, Hamas won an unexpected landslide. The polls resulted in a brief unity government but it soon collapsed and in 2007, bloody clashes erupted in the Gaza Strip between the two principal Palestinian factions, with Hamas ultimately seizing control of Gaza.”

First Qatar-Egypt flight since 2017 takes off from Doha
AFP/Monday 18 January 2021
The first Qatar-Egypt flight since the two Arab countries severed relations in 2017 took off from Doha on Monday, making life easier for the thousands of Egyptian residents of the Gulf nation. Egypt in June 2017 joined Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain in cutting ties with Qatar, accusing it of being too close to Iran and of backing extremists, charges Doha denies. The quartet agreed to heal the rift at a Gulf summit on January 5 in Saudi Arabia, after a flurry of diplomatic activity by outgoing US President Donald Trump’s administration. As many as 300,000 Egyptians call Qatar home, according to statistics, but many were unable to travel home during the crisis. In May 2020, frustrated Egyptians protested outside the compound housing Egypt’s then-empty embassy. Mask-clad travelers walk with their carry-on luggage to board the first Qatar Airways flight bound for Cairo after the resumption of flights between Qatar and  Following the demonstration, 18 repatriation flights operated via neutral Oman to comply with Cairo’s ban on direct air traffic. The first commercial flight between Qatar and Egypt in three and a half years, an EgyptAir service to Cairo, took off from windswept Doha airport.
A Qatar Airways plane was due to also make the trip to Cairo later Monday.Mustafa Ahmed, 38, an Egyptian technical engineer, said: “We are very happy...”“With direct flights, life will be easier, especially for families and children, avoiding the torment of changing airports and planes and waiting for hours for transit flights,” he told AFP. Egyptians in Qatar work in a number of sectors including education, healthcare and engineering. Thousands of Qatar’s majority-expatriate workforce, however, have lost their jobs as a result of a downturn caused by the coronavirus epidemic. A first flight between the UAE and Qatar since the inter-Arab row that severed transportation links was also due Monday to land in Doha from the emirate of Sharjah.

Russian Gets Six Years for Putin Party Office Vandalism
Agence France Pres/January 17/2021
A Russian court jailed a mathematician for six years on Monday for breaking a window at an office of President Vladimir Putin's ruling party, causing outrage among activists. Azat Miftakhov was convicted of "hooliganism", his lawyer Svetlana Sidorkina told AFP, adding that he would appeal against the ruling.
"We don't agree with this decision... based particularly on two anonymous witness statements that could not be verified," Sidorkina said. Rights group Memorial has called Miftakhov a political prisoner and almost 90,000 people have signed a petition calling for his release. More than 2,500 mathematicians from around the world have threatened to boycott a 2022 congress in Saint Petersburg if he is not freed, Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta reported. A doctoral student at Moscow State University, 27-year-old Miftakhov openly calls himself an anarchist activist. He was arrested in February 2019, accused of belonging to a group of six people who a year earlier allegedly broke the window at a United Russia party office in northern Moscow and threw a smoke bomb inside. He had previously been arrested on suspicion of manufacturing an explosive, although he has so far not been charged with that crime. His lawyer said police officers hit him and pressured him while he was being held for the bomb-making offence. In recent months, Russian authorities have sentenced several groups of young far left supporters, some of them very harshly, in cases blasted by human rights defenders.

Kuwait's emir accepts resignation of cabinet - state news agency
NNA/Reuters/January 17/2021
Kuwait’s emir has accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid al-Sabah and his cabinet, state news agency KUNA said on Monday. Sheikh Sabah’s cabinet will continue in a caretaker capacity until the formation of a new government, KUNA said.

Navalny Urges Russians to 'Take to the Streets' over Jailing
Agence France Presse/Arab News/January 17/2021
Russia's most prominent opposition leader Alexei Navalny called on Monday for his supporters to take to the streets after a hastily organized court ordered him jailed for 30 days. The makeshift court -- set up in a police station on the outskirts of Moscow where Navalny was being held -- agreed to a request from prosecutors for Navalny to be kept in custody until February 15. Police then moved the Kremlin critic to Moscow's Matrosskaya Tishina prison, infamous as the jail where lawyer Sergei Magnitsky died in 2009 while being held under pre-trial arrest. Navalny, President Vladimir Putin's best-known domestic critic, was taken to the station after a dramatic airport arrest on Sunday that prompted condemnation from the West and calls for his immediate release. In a video released by his team shortly after the ruling, the 44-year-old anti-corruption campaigner urged his supporters to protest.
"Do not be silent. Resist. Take to the streets -- not for me, but for you," Navalny said. The head of Navalny's regional network Leonid Volkov said preparations were underway for protests to be organized across the country on Saturday. Navalny was arrested as he returned to Russia from Germany for the first time since he was poisoned with a nerve agent in August and flown to Berlin in an induced coma. Russia's FSIN prison service said that it had detained him for violating the terms of a suspended sentence he was given in 2014, on fraud charges he says were politically motivated. Navalny's lawyer Olga Mikhailova told reporters outside of the police station Monday that a court hearing on turning that sentence into a prison term will take place on February 2.
- 'Mockery of justice' -
In another video posted by his team from the courtroom before the Monday ruling, Navalny said he did not understand how the session could be taking place. "I've seen a lot of mockery of justice, but the old man in the bunker (Putin) is so afraid that they have blatantly torn up and thrown away" Russia's criminal code, Navalny said. With temperatures hovering around -20 degrees Celsius (-4 Fahrenheit), several dozen Navalny supporters gathered outside the police station shouting "Freedom!" and "Let him go!" as police looked on. One waved a pair of underwear attached to a pole, a reference to claims that the Novichok nerve agent used against Navalny had been placed in a pair of his underpants. Protesters also gathered in Saint Petersburg, where OVD Info, which monitors detentions at political protests in Russia, said at least 46 people were detained. It's a disgrace. You can't say what you think," 50-year-old protester Natalya Semyonova told AFP at the scene.
Navalny emerged a decade ago with his Anti-Corruption Foundation publishing anti-graft investigations revealing the lavish lifestyles of the Russian elite. The leading Kremlin critic has repeatedly led large-scale street protests against Putin, most recently in the summer of 2019, and was gearing up for another challenge to authorities during elections to the lower house State Duma in September. He was evacuated to Germany after falling violently ill on a flight over Siberia in August from what Western experts eventually concluded was a poisoning with Novichok, a Soviet-designed toxin. Navalny accused Putin of ordering the attack, a claim the Kremlin vehemently denies. Russian police have not opened an investigation, citing a lack of evidence.
Western condemnation
Navalny is also facing potential new criminal charges under a probe launched late last year by Russian investigators who say he misappropriated over $4 million worth of donations. His arrest on Sunday drew widespread Western condemnation, with the United States, European Union, France and Canada all calling for his release. Others joined that call on Monday, with EU chief Ursula von der Leyen saying Russian authorities should "immediately release him and ensure his safety" and German Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman saying she condemned the "arbitrary arrest". The United Nations human rights office said it was "deeply troubled" by the arrest, while Britain's Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said it was "appalling". "He must be immediately released," Raab wrote on Twitter. "Rather than persecuting Mr Navalny Russia should explain how a chemical weapon came to be used on Russian soil." Navalny was poisoned with the same chemical that Britain says was used in the attempted murder of former spy Sergei Skripal in the English town of Salisbury in 2018. Russia has hit back at the condemnation, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday saying it was an attempt to distract attention from domestic problems in Western countries. "It looks like Western politicians see this as an opportunity to divert attention from the deepest crisis the liberal development model has found itself in," he said. Russia frequently accuses the West of unfair criticism of its domestic policies, pointing to divisions in Western countries such as those that led to the storming of the U.S. Capitol or the Yellow Vests protests in France.

Russia Expels Two Dutch Diplomats In Tit-for-tat Move
NNA/AFP/January 17/2021 
Moscow said Monday it was expelling two Dutch diplomats from the country in response to a "provocative" decision by the Netherlands in December to remove two Russian embassy staff over spying allegations. Moscow summoned Dutch charge d'affaires Joost Reintjes, the foreign ministry said in a statement, telling him that two Dutch diplomats had two weeks to leave the country. "The Russian side, guided by the principle of reciprocity, decided to expel from Russia two diplomatic employees of the embassy of the Netherlands in Moscow," the statement said.In December Dutch security officials said the country was expelling two alleged Russian spies working as diplomats after "rolling up" a spy network that targeted hi-tech industries.

UN Secretary-General appoints Mr. Ján Kubiš of Slovakia as his Special Envoy on Libya
NNA/January 17/2021
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres announced on Monday the appointment of Ján Kubiš of Slovakia as his Special Envoy on Libya and Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). This position is established pursuant to Security Council resolution 2542 (2020).
The Secretary-General is grateful for the commitment and outstanding leadership of Acting Special Representative Stephanie T. Williams of the United States in moving the political process forward in Libya.  Mr. Kubiš, who has served as Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Office of the United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL) since 2019, brings with him many years of experience in diplomacy, foreign security policy, and international economic relations, both internationally and in his own country. He previously served as Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI), from 2015 to 2018, and as Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) from 2011 to 2015. He was the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) from 2009 to 2011, Minister for Foreign Affairs in Slovakia from 2006 to 2009, Chairman of the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe from 2007 to 2008, and Secretary-General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) from 1999 to 2005. Mr. Kubiš also served as the European Union’s Special Representative for Central Asia with the office in Brussels and as the Personal Representative of the Chairman-in-Office of OSCE for Central Asia, as the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Tajikistan and Head of the United Nations Mission of Observers in Tajikistan from 1998 to 1999. He was previously the Director of OSCE’s Conflict Prevention Centre and worked at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the former Czechoslovakia from 1976 to 1992 and thereafter at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Slovakia. In 1993 he served as Permanent Representative of Slovakia to the United Nations Office and other International Organizations in Geneva.—UNIC
 

Trouble at Home May Change Biden's Hand in Iran Nuclear Talks
Associated Press/January 17/2021
A lot of the characters are the same for U.S. President-elect Joe Biden but the scene is far starker as he reassembles a team of veteran negotiators to get back into the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. President Donald Trump worked to blow up the multinational deal to contain Iran's nuclear program during his four years in office, gutting the diplomatic achievement of predecessor Barack Obama in favor of what Trump called a maximum pressure campaign against Iran. Down to Trump's last days in office, accusations, threats and still more sanctions by Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Iran's decision to spur uranium enrichment and seize a South Korean tanker, are helping to keep alive worries that regional conflict will erupt. Iran on Friday staged drills, hurling volleys of ballistic missiles and smashing drones into targets, further raising pressure on the incoming American president over a nuclear accord. Even before the Capitol riot this month, upheaval at home threatened to weaken the U.S. hand internationally, including in the Middle East's nuclear standoff. Political divisions are fierce, thousands are dying in the pandemic and unemployment remains high. Biden and his team will face allies and adversaries wondering how much attention and resolution the U.S. can bring to bear on the Iran nuclear issue or any other foreign concern, and whether any commitment by Biden will be reversed by his successor. "His ability to move the needle is ... I think hampered by the doubt about America's capacity and by the skepticism and worry about what comes after Biden," said Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Nasr was an adviser on Afghanistan during the first Obama administration. Biden's pick for deputy secretary of state, Wendy Sherman, acknowledged the difficulties in an interview with a Boston news show last month before her nomination. "We're going to work hard at this, because we have lost credibility, we are seen as weaker" after Trump, said Sherman, who was Barack Obama's lead U.S. negotiator for the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. She was speaking of U.S. foreign objectives overall, including the Iran deal. Biden's first priority for renewed talks is getting both Iran and the United States back in compliance with the nuclear deal, which offered Iran relief from sanctions in exchange for Iran accepting limits on its nuclear material and gear. "If Iran returns to compliance with the deal, we will do so as well," a person familiar with the Biden transition team's thinking said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to speak on the record. "It would be a first step."
But Biden also faces pressure both from Democrats and Republican opponents of the Iran deal. They don't want the U.S. to throw away the leverage of sanctions until Iran is made to address other items objectionable to Israel, Sunni Arab neighbors, and the United States. That includes Iran's ballistic missiles and substantial and longstanding intervention in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq. Biden promises to deal with all that too.
Getting back into the original deal "is the floor and not the ceiling" for the Biden administration on Iran, the person familiar with the incoming administration's thinking on it said. "It doesn't stop there.""In an ideal world it would be great to have a comprehensive agreement" at the outset, said Rep. Gerry Connolly, a Virginia Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. "But that's not how these negotiations work."Connolly said he thought there was broad support in Congress for getting back into the deal. Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser for the conservative Foundation for Defense of Democracies who worked as an Iran adviser for the Trump administration in 2019 and this year, questioned that. Lawmakers in Congress will balk at lifting sanctions on Iran's Revolutionary Guard and other Iranian players the U.S. regards as supporters of terrorism, and balk, too, at giving up on financial pressure meant to block Iran from moving closer to nuclear weapons, Goldberg predicts.
"This is a real wedge inside the Democratic Party," Goldberg said.
Sanctions by Trump, who pulled the U.S. out of the accord in 2018, mean that Iran's leaders are under heavier economic and political pressure at home, just as Biden is. The United States' European allies will be eager to help Biden wrack up a win on the new Iran talks if possible, Nasr said. Even among many non-U.S. allies, "they don't want the return of Trump or Trumpism." Biden served as Obama's main promoter of the 2015 accord with lawmakers once the deal was brokered. He talked for hours to skeptics in Congress and at a Jewish community center in Florida. Then, Biden hammered home Obama's pledge that America ultimately would do everything in its power to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons, if diplomacy failed. Besides tapping Sherman for his administration, Biden has called back William Burns, who led secret early talks with Iran in Oman, as his CIA director. He's selected Iran negotiators Anthony Blinken and Jake Sullivan as his intended secretary of state and national security adviser respectively, among other 2015 Iran players. It's not yet clear if Biden will employ Sherman as his principal diplomatic manager with Iran, or someone else, or whether he will designate a main Iran envoy. Sherman has also been instrumental in U.S. negotiations with North Korea. The Obama's administration's implicit threat of military action against Iran if it kept moving toward a weapons-capable nuclear program could look less convincing than it did five years ago, given the U.S. domestic crises. A new Middle East conflict would only make it harder for Biden to find the time and money to deal with pressing problems, including his planned $2 trillion effort to cut climate-damaging fossil fuel emissions. "If war with Iran became inevitable it would upend everything else he's trying to do with his presidency," said Karim Sadjadpour, an expert on Iran and U.S. Middle East policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Biden and his team are very mindful of this. Their priorities are domestic."
 

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 17-18/2021

Iran’s line of succession in doubt amid Khamenei concerns
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 17/2021
There have been many rumors and reports about Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s deteriorating health for several years. This raises an important question: What will happen when Khamenei, supreme leader for almost 32 years, dies?
Experts, scholars, policy analysts and some politicians may jump into naming candidates who could replace him. But Khamenei’s death might lead to a nationwide uprising against the theocratic establishment, endangering its hold on power. Since millions of people will be allowed to attend his funeral, this could provide the perfect platform for an overwhelming majority of the population to demonstrate against the authorities.
Many in Iran believe that the paramount leader, who enjoys the final say on all Iran’s domestic and foreign policies, is the glue that holds the Islamic Republic together. His death could empower the population to rise up against the system. After all, disaffectedness toward the government and officials has reached an unprecedented level in the last few years.
Another possible scenario is that Khamenei might step down if his health status becomes critical. This way, there could be a monitored transition of power and the regime would eliminate the danger of being overthrown.
According to Iran’s constitution, several political bodies will play a role in deciding who will succeed Khamenei. However, the reality is that one particular organization — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which does not have constitutional authority in this matter — will probably be the final decision-maker. Over the past two decades, the IRGC has grown to be the country’s political and economic powerhouse.
Then the question becomes: Who does the senior cadre of the IRGC want to be the next supreme leader? The most important criterion for the IRGC elite is that they want an individual they can control, not vice versa. It follows that they would prefer a low-profile cleric who totally supports the IRGC’s activities, its political and economic monopoly, and its objectives, such as advancing Iran’s nuclear program and promoting the regime’s regional hegemonic ambitions. The last thing the IRGC wants is a supreme leader who would challenge their authority and power. Therefore, anyone who is considered a moderate or a reformist is not a serious candidate.
The supreme leader’s death could empower the population to rise up against the system.
People such as Ebrahim Raisi and Mojtaba Khamenei (the supreme leader’s second son) could be good candidates for the IRGC, as long as they keep a low profile, do not attempt to project their power and influence on the IRGC, and do not challenge the rule and autonomy of the IRGC leaders, the Guardian Council and the Expediency Council.
When Khamenei replaced the founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, he was among the least-qualified candidates, particularly when compared to influential people such as Hussein-Ali Montazeri. Montazeri, who was at one time the designated successor to Khomeini, was removed as the next in line because he challenged the authorities.
Khamenei’s divine authority, legitimacy and credibility were heavily questioned by the high-level clerics in the city of Qom. He was not even a Marja’ or Mujtahid, capable of issuing fatwa, which is a requirement of the constitution. He was also considered a weak supreme leader and lacking in charisma when compared to Khomeini. Because Iran’s constitution emphasizes the religious authority and qualifications of a supreme leader, Khamenei’s appointment was undoubtedly a political move rather than a religious one.
Although Khamenei was weak at the beginning, he was unexpectedly successful and managed to marginalize the high-level clerics who opposed him, creating his own inner circle and foreign policy office, while making a robust alliance with the IRGC in order to control the opposition. As time passed, his views also altered, and he became more in favor of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, as well as more anti-American. In other words, he created a political structure that is a combination of military dictatorship and theocracy.
Finally, there is a theory that the position of supreme leader might be abolished altogether if Khamenei dies. However, the foundational basis of the Islamic Republic and its interpretation of Shiite Islam are anchored in the concept of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), which was advanced by Khomeini. As a result, such a scenario is extremely unlikely.
In summary, if Supreme Leader Khamenei dies, either the nation will rise up against the regime and threaten its hold on power or the IRGC will manage to hand-pick a sycophant who would act as its puppet, granting it free rein in political and economic affairs, increasing its leverage over Iran’s other institutions.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

How young Americans view foreign policy
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/January 18/2021
Young voters played an important role in the recent US elections, and they will increasingly have an impact on US politics and foreign policy. As the older members of Generation Z enter adulthood, their experiences and attitudes will become more influential. The Pew Research Center defines Generation Z as Americans born between 1997 and 2012, placing this group today between nine and 24 years old. Generation Z is the most ethnically and racially diverse generation in US history and mostly grew up in the age of smartphones and social media. In terms of US foreign policy, they grew up after the sense of victory that defined the post-Cold War era had passed, but also at a time when the US has no peer rival in the world. On policy issues, the older Generation Z members have much in common with younger members of the Millennial generation (born between 1981 and 1996). While there is limited polling specifically looking at Generation Z views on foreign policy, data from the Pew Research Center, the Center for American Progress, and other sources provides some clues. Many Generation Z adults and younger Millennials have no strong opinions on foreign policy, and Americans under 50 years old are less likely to spend time consuming news about foreign policy than older generations. This is likely to change, to some extent, as the generations age. Despite these limits, there are still important trends in how young Americans view their country’s place in the world.
Generation Z shares with other generations the belief that improving life domestically — such as improving infrastructure, education and healthcare — is important to making the US strong and competitive abroad. In one list of top foreign policy priorities, young Americans listed “protecting jobs for American workers” as a top concern. Generation Z, Millennials and Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980) are all more likely to prioritize focusing on domestic concerns while avoiding interference in other countries compared to older generations, who see US global leadership as critically important.
Another widely shared view across generations is fatigue with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Younger Americans are less likely than older generations to support military interventions.
Young and old Americans are concerned about relations with China. Across generations, there tends to be a preference for a cautious approach that includes efforts to diminish political tensions with China while improving economic cooperation.
There also are significant gaps between young and older Americans’ views on foreign policy. Older Americans tend to see migration as a major threat, while younger Americans do not, according to a Pew poll. Older Americans worry more about China and Russia. Relations with Israel is another foreign policy issue with a generational divide: A Pew poll found that a majority of Americans over the age of 65 have favorable views of the Israeli government, but only 27 percent of Americans under the age of 30 agree. Younger Americans worry about cyberattacks, terrorism and nuclear proliferation but are less likely to see them as major threats compared to older Americans. Younger Americans are more supportive of multilateral cooperation to solve problems.
Climate change is the primary issue about which younger Americans are clearly more concerned than older Americans. A Pew poll found that 71 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 see climate change as a major threat, compared to 54 percent of Americans over the age of 50. Multiple other studies suggest that younger Americans are more likely to recognize anthropogenic climate change and see tackling it as a top priority. Of course, Generation Z will have to live with the consequences of climate change for longer than older generations.
Every generation experiences specific events that affect their worldview. The Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, experienced US economic growth after the Second World War, as well as the Cold War and the Vietnam War. The defining foreign policy experiences for many members of Generation X were the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Those same wars defined the foreign policy experience of Millennials. The older members of Generation Z are coming of age in the midst of a global pandemic, but the foreign policy events that will shape this generation are mostly yet to happen.
Some members of Generation Z are calling for greater input into US foreign policy. If they continue voting in larger numbers, they might gain more influence. However, younger generations always want more influence and frequently have grievances against the older generations. Younger generations usually want a chance at power, while older generations are slow to move aside. Climate change is the primary issue about which younger Americans are clearly more concerned than older Americans. It would be better for the generations to learn from each other. Older generations offer experience and historical perspective. There are important lessons to be learned from the Cold War, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and more. There is always a reason for a previous policy; the salient question is whether the reasons were good and whether conditions have changed. Younger people also make a valid point that they will inherit the world that older people create. Younger generations often have a more intuitive understanding of the world as it exists today, with its technological, economic and social changes. They are not burdened by past assumptions that might not be applicable to the modern world. A better future for everyone is more likely when older and younger generations learn from each other and work together.
*Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 16 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica and managing editor of Arms Control Today. Twitter: @KBAresearch

Global economic recovery should top Biden’s agenda
Afshin Molavi/Arab News/January 18/2021
American boxer Mike Tyson once famously quipped: “Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face.” The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been a massive punch to our world, leaving nearly 2 million dead and some 500 million jobless, along with a devastating toll of rising poverty, business bankruptcy and social unrest. It has been quite a punch. How we respond will shape the world for the next generation and beyond. In moments of crisis like this, the world’s leading powers should step up, partly because the world needs them and partly because it remains in their interest to do so. US President-elect Joe Biden often says that “America is back.” He has noted that “we’re at the head of the table once again,” and “the world does not organize itself.” By this, he means the US has returned to the global stage, not as an “America First” superpower wielding tariffs and threats and disrupting established norms and institutions, but as a multilateral partner intent on rebuilding alliances. Biden has said he plans to return the US to the Paris climate agreement on his first day in office and convene a climate meeting with heads of state in his first 100 days. While this sort of talk certainly calms shattered nerves in Brussels, Berlin and Paris, it fails to tackle the biggest — and most existential — problem facing our world today: The post COVID-19 global economic carnage.
Many of Biden’s top foreign policy advisers have often lamented America’s “lost standing” in the world. That lost standing was perhaps felt sharpest in the salons of Paris and conference halls of Davos. For the 85-odd percent of the world’s population who live outside the Western world and its elite echo chambers, however, there is little time to lament America’s lost standing. They are too busy trying to make a living in our highly disruptive, fast-paced world. Their attitude is: “If America can help, great. If not, can you please get out of the way so I can feed my family.”
The COVID-19 pandemic tore through the lives of everyone, with the pain especially acute in the developing world. The World Bank estimates that between 88 million and 114 million people have fallen into extreme poverty as a result of the pandemic — the first rise in extreme poverty numbers since 1990. The World Bank also warns of “a lost decade” ahead as growth forecast numbers tick downward while the pandemic “shrapnel” — lost productivity, business bankruptcy, rising debt levels, diminished tax bases — remains lodged in economies worldwide.
To truly show that “America is back,” Biden should take leadership on the worldwide post-COVID-19 economic recovery. Yes, much recovery is needed in the US and a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan is in the works, but singularly focusing on recovery at home smacks of an “America First” agenda.
What the world desperately needs is a multilateral global economic recovery initiative, and here is where the US can lead. It will be important to note, however, that the US may be at the head of the table, as Biden says, but it is not the only one that can sit there. The 2019 development aid assistance figures put the US at No. 2 worldwide, behind China. A look at the Top 10 aid donors of the past year reveals that seven of them are close US allies (minus China, of course). Germany, the UK, Japan and France make that list, as does, surprisingly, the UAE, which is the seventh-largest donor worldwide and the largest per capita. The UAE has also been a COVID-19 humanitarian relief leader, with aid shipments going to Italy, Iran and far beyond. One of Biden’s first calls when he enters office should be to President Xi Jinping of China, followed by the other major aid donors. On the agenda should be a global economic recovery initiative. Washington should also urge Beijing to consider seriously lowering or wiping out the massive debts several poor countries have accrued to China over the past decade — debts that are crippling their recoveries.
The US may be at the head of the table, as Biden says, but it is not the only one that can sit there.
Biden has made a good start by nominating a high-profile figure, former US ambassador to the UN Samantha Power, to head the relatively low-profile US Agency for International Development (USAID). He will also elevate the post of USAID administrator to the US National Security Council — an acknowledgement that development assistance should be at the highest level of foreign policymaking. While this minor bit of bureaucratic news is a good sign, it remains to be seen if the US will keep its eye on the ball on development assistance or will remain consumed by its own domestic flames.
For much of the world, America’s political unrest and divisions have become something of a distant soap opera. Far too many people are far too busy trying to recover their lives and livelihoods to bother too much with what happens next to Donald Trump. If, as Biden says, America is back, the best way to show it would be through sustained, innovative leadership in tackling the biggest problem we all face: The post-pandemic economic carnage dragging the world down — especially its most vulnerable people.
**Afshin Molavi is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and editor and founder of the “New Silk Road Monitor.” Copyright: Syndication Bureau
 

US designation may be first step toward Houthis’ delegitimization
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 18/2021
In the final days of Donald Trump’s presidency, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has revealed the administration’s intention to designate the Houthi militia in Yemen as a terrorist organization and to place the group and several of its leaders on the Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) blacklist. The outgoing secretary of state said the new designation would come into force on Jan. 19. This decision aims to punish the Houthi movement for its crimes, including murder, the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Yemenis, the destruction of the country’s infrastructure, the military conscription of children, impeding the delivery of humanitarian aid, and catapulting the country into one of the worst humanitarian disasters in modern history. In addition, this starvation siege has led to poverty and diseases spreading among the Yemeni people.
Though the US decision is belated, it has long been a demand of all the Yemeni people who have suffered because of the 2014 coup staged by this terrorist militia against the legitimate government and its hijacking of state institutions. This designation comes after years of the international community’s deafening silence on the Houthi militia’s domestic and regional crimes. The decision is also consistent with the demands of the legitimate Yemeni government, which has repeatedly called on the international community to punish the Houthi militia for the crimes, devastation and slaughter it has committed, and to push it to relinquish its destructive agenda, which has not only been detrimental to Yemen, but also posed a direct threat to other regional countries, especially its neighbors.There is no doubt that, if this US decision comes into force on Tuesday and the incoming administration complies with it, it will be followed by subsequent steps. It will be a massive source of pressure on the Houthis and will boost regional and international efforts to settle the crisis in Yemen. The Houthi militia has so far played a significant role in obstructing attempts to achieve peace.
The US decision will result in the Houthi militia being besieged and isolated from its regional and international sponsors, and it will cut off its sources of funding and weapons from Iran, including the transfer of missiles, drones and other deadly weapons. This designation will also impact the movement of Houthi leaders, who have previously shuttled freely between countries.
In addition to the Houthi militia facing the aforementioned ramifications, its designation as an SDGT group will officially result in it being acknowledged as a rogue actor and a party that is unfit to establish any diplomatic relations or conclude any agreements with. In Yemen itself, the US designation will grant the Yemeni people the legal justification to counter the Houthis, who have led the country into a dark and terrible tunnel, endangering its unity, security and stability. The US designation will also constitute a significant step toward stopping the Houthis’ cross-border terrorism, which could extend to other countries. However, we sincerely hope that this belated US decision is implemented on the ground as soon as possible to put an end to the terrorist acts committed by the Houthi militia.
In recent months, the Houthis have begun to look for international legitimacy by coordinating with their sponsors in Tehran, which in October appointed an Iranian ambassador to Sanaa. This was followed by the Houthis appointing an ambassador in Syria. However, with the Houthi militia designated as a terrorist outfit, its concerted diplomatic efforts to gain international recognition may fall apart.
The US designating the Houthi militia as a terrorist outfit will result in many countries and companies fearing American penalties because of their ongoing cooperation with the militia. In light of this US decision, the legitimate government in Yemen now needs to redouble its efforts and take a host of steps to ensure the objectives behind Washington’s designation are met, while preventing further potential harm being inflicted on the Yemeni people. The steps the legitimate government can take include: Offering ways to calm public concerns over the possible adverse ramifications of the US decision on the Yemeni people; reconditioning roads and airports in liberated areas; finding alternative ways to distribute international aid; resolving the internal differences among parties opposed to the Houthis; coordinating with the US and the Arab coalition to monitor the borders and ports; and preventing the smuggling of arms and military equipment to the Houthis. There are real concerns that this US decision will impact future humanitarian relief operations, primarily because of retaliatory actions from the Houthis. However, it seems that these concerns are not justified, as the US State Department said it will introduce licenses to allow humanitarian aid and imports to continue, and the US will work with officials from the UN and nongovernmental organizations to mitigate the ramifications of this decision on the Yemeni population. This will ensure the distribution of humanitarian aid in areas controlled by the Houthi militia, meaning that it will not be able to seize the aid or impede the sale of imports in Yemeni markets, as it has done in recent years. It will be a massive source of pressure on the Houthis and will boost regional and international efforts to settle the crisis in Yemen. The US decision can be interpreted within the context of the Trump administration’s efforts to increase the pressure on Iran by imposing sanctions on the militias linked to it, especially the Houthi militia, which has continued to receive generous support from the Tehran regime. Over the past six years, the Houthis have repeatedly proved their full compliance with Tehran’s agenda and its projects in Yemen and in other countries across the region. If the incoming Biden administration complies with this designation, the US will inflict a new blow to the Iranian regime and increase the number of Iranian proxies and entities already on the terrorist blacklist, including the Lebanese Hezbollah, Bahrain’s Al-Ashtar Brigades, and Iraq’s Kata’ib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl Al-Haq, and Al-Nujaba militias. This latest US designation could open the floodgates for similar designations of other militias backed by Iran, which continue to play a dangerous role in undermining regional security and stability.
In conclusion, it could be said that placing the Houthi militia on the terrorist blacklist is the first step toward delegitimizing and weakening it, thus putting an end to the suffering of the Yemeni people. However, this ultimately depends on the extent to which the incoming Biden administration is convinced of the designation’s effectiveness in ending the Yemeni crisis.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami