English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 18/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news
 

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Bible Quotations For today

Disciples' Sorrow Will Turn Into Joy/Jesus said to His Disciples: I have said all these things to you so that in me you may have peace. In the world you have trouble: but take heart! I have overcome the world.”
John16/17-33: So some of the disciples said one to another, What is this he is saying, After a little time, you will see me no longer; and then again, after a little time, you will see me? and, I am going to the Father?  So they said again and again, What is this he is saying, A little time? His words are not clear to us. 19 Jesus saw that they had a desire to put the question to him, so he said to them, Is this what you are questioning one with another, why I said, After a little time, you will see me no longer; and then again, after a little time, you will see me?  Truly I say to you, You will be weeping and sorrowing, but the world will be glad: you will be sad, but your sorrow will be turned into joy.  When a woman is about to give birth she has sorrow, because her hour is come; but when she has given birth to the child, the pain is put out of her mind by the joy that a man has come into the world. So you have sorrow now: but I will see you again, and your hearts will be glad, and no one will take away your joy. And on that day you will put no questions to me. Truly I say to you, Whatever request you make to the Father, he will give it to you in my name.  Up to now you have made no request in my name: do so, and it will be answered, so that your hearts may be full of joy.  All this I have said to you in veiled language: but the time is coming when I will no longer say things in veiled language but will give you knowledge of the Father clearly.  In that day you will make requests in my name: and I do not say that I will make prayer to the Father for you,  For the Father himself gives his love to you, because you have given your love to me and have had faith that I came from God.  I came out from the Father and have come into the world: again, I go away from the world and go to the Father.  His disciples said, Now you are talking clearly and not in veiled language. Now we are certain that you have knowledge of all things and have no need for anyone to put questions to you: through this we have faith that you came from God.  Jesus made answer, Have you faith now?  See, a time is coming, yes, it is now here, when you will go away in all directions, every man to his house, and I will be by myself: but I am not by myself, because the Father is with me. I have said all these things to you so that in me you may have peace. In the world you have trouble: but take heart! I have overcome the world.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 17-18/2021

Video-Text/A/E: No Solution In Lebanon Without A UN Military Intervention/Elias Bejjani/January 16/2021
Lebanon Records 3,654 New Virus Cases and 40 Deaths
Health Ministry Receives Shipment of Ventilators, Oxygen Devices
Hassan Signs Pfizer Deal, Promises Vaccines from Astrazeneca, Sinopharm
Bizri: Gradual Vaccine Shipments Start Next Month
Berri Asks Hassan to Move Qatari Field Hospital to Beirut
Army Patrol Attacked in Eastern Border Region
Hariri's Adviser Rules Out Imminent Govt. Formation
Lebanon: Rai Calls on President, PM-Designate to Reconcile
Lebanon Inks Final Deal for 2.1 Mln Doses of Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 17-18/2021

Report: Biden team already holding talks with Iran on US return to nuclear deal/The Times Of Israel/17 January 2021
US B-52 bombers fly over Middle East amid Iran tensions
U.S. Bomber Overflies Mideast for 2nd Time This Year
Suspicious Iranian Movements Near Syrian-Iraqi Borders after Israeli Bombing
Biden Aide Slams Trump Move on Yemen Rebels
PA Receives Assurances That Elections Will Take Place in Jerusalem
Morocco Jews 'Already Packing' for Direct Israel Flights
Macron urged the French Council of the Muslim Faith (CFCM) to devise
Sudan Protesters Burn Israeli Flag in Rally against Normalization Deal
Kremlin critic Navalny takes off on plane to Russia despite arrest threat
Allies Arrested at Airport as Kremlin Critic Navalny Flies Home

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 17-18/2021

A Global Calamity: 340,000,000 Christians Persecuted/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone/ Institute/January 17/2021
Iran’s line of succession in doubt amid Khamenei concerns/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 17/2021
Erdogan’s charm offensive hints at imminent Turkish shift/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/January 17/2021
Where it all went wrong for Trump/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/January 17/2021
How the Biden presidency might impact Turkey’s Kurdish problem/David Romano//Arab News/January 17/2021
 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 17-18/2021

Video-Text/A/E: No Solution In Lebanon Without A UN Military Intervention
Elias Bejjani/January 16/2021
الياس بجاني/لا حل لكارثة الإحتلال الإيراني للبنان دون تدخل عسكري مبإشر بإشراف مجلس الأمن الدولي
Sadly most of the free and patriotic Lebanese from all walks of life, and specially those who are living in the Diaspora, like myself, all strongly believe there is no way any more or any slight hope that the Lebanese themselves are alone able to rescue their own country and free it from both, the Iranian occupation and the local Mafiosi political class.
The country has reached a stage of chaos that made the Lebanese helpless and unable to do any thing, but to leave Lebanon if this option is available for them.
practically, Lebanon and the Lebanese are both kidnapped by the armed Iranian terrorist proxy, Hezbollah by force, intimidation, murder, oppression and all kinds of barbaric and savage evil means.
Meanwhile all the ruling officials, as well as the political class from the top to the bottom of the governing hierarchy especially and foremost the president and both the Prime Minster and the House speaker as well as the Parliamentary majority are all mere puppets, mercenaries and Trojans.
The satanic occupation formula that is destroying systematically every thing in Lebanon is a marriage between the armed and terrorist Iranian Militia which is Hezbollah, and the criminal Mafia which is the political class with no one exception.
Corruption, chaos, and all kinds of crimes are invading the country on all levels and in all domains in both the public and the private sectors.
Banks are holding peoples’ assets and money and impoverishing them, while the majority of the financial experts believe that the these banks are all heading towards bankruptcy very soon.
There is no way that the Lebanese and their country who are both kidnapped and taken by Iran and its Hezbollah hostages can free themselves alone without a regional and international serious and powerful military help via the United Nations assembly.
The only window of help that the Lebanese are hoping to see open wide is the formal and official UN declaration of Lebanon as a rouge-failed country.
Lebanon sooner and later Must be declared a rogue-failed country and put under the UN clause # 07.
A UN urgent military intervention under clause number 07 is the only left vehicle to rescue the hostage, occupied and kidnapped Lebanon.
In conclusion, there is No hope from the political Lebanese rotten and corrupted class, or from getting rid of the terrorist Iran military proxy, Hezbollah without an urgent UN foreign military intervention.

Lebanon Records 3,654 New Virus Cases and 40 Deaths
Naharnet/Sunday, 17 January, 2021
Lebanon recorded 3,654 new coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours, the Health Ministry said on Sunday, a drop from 5,872 cases registered on Saturday. The country has typically reported lower tallies of coronavirus cases on weekends. Forty more deaths were also registered on Sunday, taking the death toll to 1,865. The new cases meanwhile raise the country’s overall tally since February 21 to 252,812 -- among them 3,639 cases detected among arriving travelers and 153,038 recoveries. Lebanon, a country of more than 6 million, including at least 1 million refugees, has seen a massive climb in infections since Christmas and New Year holidays. The surge has overwhelmed hospitals and the health care system. During the holiday season, restrictions in place for months to combat the virus were eased to encourage spending by some 80,000 expatriates who returned home to celebrate. As infections increased and ICU beds filled up, authorities imposed the strictest lockdown yet starting last Thursday, hoping that restrictions in place until February 1 could help contain the rise. In recent weeks, between 4,000 and 5,000 infections were recorded a day and a rise in daily death tolls, up from numbers that hovered around 1,000 since November.
 

Health Ministry Receives Shipment of Ventilators, Oxygen Devices
Naharnet/Sunday, 17 January, 2021
The Health Ministry received at dawn Sunday 18 ICU ventilators for use in intensive care units, which are the last batch of a series of batches purchased by the Ministry in late March through the World Bank loan, the health minister’s press office said. It added that the shipment had been delayed due to “a financial transfers problem with the importer.”“The batch received also included high flow nasal cannula devices, which are being distributed as donations or for borrowing by private and public hospitals witnessing major pressure and showing serious cooperation for the benefit of coronavirus patients,” the office said.
It added that 48 devices will go to 25 private hospitals and 42 will go to 13 public hospitals in the various governorates. The office also said that the ministry is awaiting the arrival soon of “an additional batch of intensive care beds and ventilators bought from the World Health Organization.” “They will be distributed according to the same methodology to public and private hospitals,” it added.
 

Hassan Signs Pfizer Deal, Promises Vaccines from Astrazeneca, Sinopharm
Associated Press/Sunday, 17 January, 2021
Caretaker Health Minister Hamad Hassan on Sunday signed a “final agreement” with the Pfizer company for securing more than 2.1 million Covid-19 vaccines that will begin gradually arriving in Lebanon as of early February, his press office said. In a statement, the office noted that an agreement was also signed in October so that Lebanon gets 2.7 million vaccines from various companies through the U.N.-backed Covax program. Moreover, Hassan’s office revealed that the Health Ministry and the private sector intend to secure two million vaccines from Astrazeneca and Sinopharm as of February. A lawmaker earlier told The Associated Press the Pfizer deal is for $18 a dose, a price that takes into consideration Lebanon's economic troubles, and is expected to cover 20% of the population for free. Lebanon, a country of more than 6 million, including at least 1 million refugees, has seen a massive climb in infections since Christmas and New Year holidays. The surge has overwhelmed hospitals and the health care system. During the holiday season, restrictions in place for months to combat the virus were eased to encourage spending by some 80,000 expatriates who returned home to celebrate. The pandemic has hit Lebanon at a time when it already was struggling with a crippling economic and financial crisis. The combination has sent the country's currency tumbling, banks putting informal controls on withdrawals and businesses shuttering around the country. As infections increased and ICU beds filled up, authorities imposed the strictest lockdown yet starting last Thursday, hoping that restrictions in place until February 1 could help contain the rise. In recent weeks, between 4,000 and 5,000 infections were recorded a day and a rise in daily death tolls, up from numbers that hovered around 1,000 since November. In the first 11 days of January alone, Lebanon's Red Cross said it has transported over 1,200 COVID-19 patients to hospitals. Lebanon has so far recorded 249,158 infections and some 1,866 deaths. Many have expressed concern the measures have come too late -- many hospitals have already reached maximum capacity for coronavirus patients, some have run out of beds, oxygen tanks and ventilators while others have halted elective surgeries. There are already calls to extend the lockdown beyond Valentine's Day on February 14 -- another widely celebrated holiday in Lebanon. Following bureaucratic delays, the country now is putting hopes on vaccines. Parliament approved on Friday the law that allowed for signing the final deal with Pfizer, offering guarantees for pharmaceutical companies for emergency rollout of the vaccine. Lebanon has at least 12 refrigerators to store the vaccine.
 

Bizri: Gradual Vaccine Shipments Start Next Month
Naharnet/Sunday, 17 January, 2021 
Head of the national scientific committee for COVID-19, Dr. Abdul Rahman Bizri said on Saturday, the countdown to receiving the coronavirus vaccine has begun, but noted that Pfizer “is not lenient” with Lebanon on the financial issue.
“The real countdown has begun to receive the vaccine in the first half of February, we could even receive it in the first quarter of the month,” announced Bizri in remarks to LBCI television daily show Nharkom Saeed. He said Lebanon will gradually receive the shipment it requested from Pfizer and other companies, “but our problem is that Lebanon is still classified a middle-income country, and Pfizer is not lenient with us on the financial issue," he added. Bizri noted that frontline responders including healthcare workers, nurses and the paramedics should be the first to get the vaccine, even before the doctors do. On the availability of storage facilities for the vaccine, he said: “We have a minimum of 20 refrigerators, and there is no problem with the storage capacity of Pfizer vaccines,” indicating that there is a mechanism for using vaccines within 5 days of arrival.

Berri Asks Hassan to Move Qatari Field Hospital to Beirut
Naharnet/Sunday, 17 January, 2021
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has asked caretaker Health Minister Hamad Hassan to move a donated Qatari field hospital from the Tyre region to the Rafik Hariri University Hospital or the Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium, Hassan’s press office said. The field hospital will be operated by the University of Balamand in cooperation with the relevant syndicates, medical faculties, university hospitals and the Red Cross under the direct supervision of the Health Ministry and its specialized crews, the office added, thanking the efforts of Dr. Elias Warrak, the President of the University of Balamand.
Moreover, Hassan’s press office noted that “efforts continue in Seer al-Dinniyeh and Tripoli for setting up two Qatari field hospitals as soon as possible,” adding that “devices present at the Sports City (in Beirut) will be moved to them.”
 

Army Patrol Attacked in Eastern Border Region
Naharnet/Sunday, 17 January, 2021 
An army patrol on Sunday seized a pickup truck used in fuel smuggling in the eastern border area of al-Mansoura after coming under an attack. The National News Agency said members of the J. clan attacked the patrol with sticks and sharp objects as it was confiscating the pickup in al-Mansoura, which lies between the border town of al-Qasr and the city of Hermel. “The attackers tried to prevent the army troops from seizing it, which led to a fistfight until the patrol managed to seize control of the vehicle and remove it from the site,” NNA added.

Hariri's Adviser Rules Out Imminent Govt. Formation
Naharnet/Sunday, 17 January, 2021
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri’s media adviser, Hussein al-Wajeh, has ruled out an imminent formation of the new government. In remarks to the al-Anbaa news portal of the Progressive Socialist Party, al-Wajeh said a breakthrough is unlikely in the near future, noting that the cabinet formation process is “still suspended until further notice.”“We do not know whether any new development related to Lebanon will occur after (U.S.) President-elect Joe Biden officially assumes the presidency,” the adviser added.

Lebanon: Rai Calls on President, PM-Designate to Reconcile
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 January, 2021
Lebanon's top Christian cleric has urged President Michel Aoun to set up a reconciliation meeting with Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri to form a cabinet and end the country's political deadlock. The country's fractious politicians have been unable to agree on a new administration since the last one quit in the aftermath of the Aug. 4 Beirut port explosion, leaving Lebanon rudderless as it sinks deeper into economic crisis. Tensions between Aoun and Hariri, who publicly traded blame in December after failing to agree a cabinet, came to a head last week when a leaked video showed Aoun apparently calling Hariri a liar. Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai said at his Sunday sermon that the situation in Lebanon was now "tragic" and there was no excuse to further delay forming a government. "We wish that his excellency the president take the initiative and invite the prime minister-designate to a meeting."
Veteran Sunni politician Hariri was named premier for a fourth time in October, promising to form a cabinet of specialists to enact reforms necessary to unlock foreign aid, but political wrangling has delayed the process since, Reuters reported. The leaked video that circulated on social media last week showed Aoun talking to caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab about Hariri. "There is no government formation, he (Hariri) is saying he gave me a paper, he is lying," Aoun is heard saying. Sources in the president's office said the dialogue had been taken out of context and was not complete.
After the video circulated, Hariri tweeted biblical verses referring to wisdom not residing in bodies that were amenable to sin. The souring of the relationship between Aoun and Hariri comes as the country continues to struggle with an acute financial crisis that has seen the currency sink by about 80%. Lebanon's healthcare system is also buckling under the pressure of a severe spike in COVID-19 infections. Medical supplies have dwindled as dollars have grown scarce.

Lebanon Inks Final Deal for 2.1 Mln Doses of Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 January, 2021
Lebanon's caretaker health minister signed a final deal on Sunday to secure 2.1 million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine as the country battles a steep rise in infections. The vaccines are expected to arrive in batches starting February, the ministry said in a statement. The ministry is also cooperating with the private sector to secure 2 million vaccine doses from Astrazenca and Sinopharm, it added. Lebanon is under a three-week lockdown that ends on Feb. 1 and a strict 24-hour curfew until Jan. 25 after lax measures over the Christmas and New Year's holiday period led to a spike in cases.
In addition to these deals, Lebanon has also signed up for 2.7 million doses to be delivered through COVAX, the global scheme backed by the World Health Organization to provide vaccines to poorer countries.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 17-18/2021

Report: Biden team already holding talks with Iran on US return to nuclear deal
The Times Of Israel/17 January 2021
إدارة الرئيس بايدن منخرطة في محادثات مع إيران تتناول العودة إلى الإتفاق النووي وقد تم إبلاغ إسرائيل بالأمر

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/95070/the-times-of-israel-report-biden-team-already-holding-talks-with-iran-on-us-return-to-nuclear-deal-%d8%a5%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b1%d8%a6%d9%8a%d8%b3-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%af%d9%86/
Channel 12 says officials in the incoming administration have updated Israel on the deliberations, as wary Jerusalem pushes for a broader accord
Officials in the incoming Biden administration have already begun holding quiet talks with Iran on a return to the 2015 nuclear deal, and have updated Israel on those conversations, Channel 12 News reported Saturday.
The network gave no sourcing for the report, and no details on what was allegedly discussed. US President-elect Joe Biden has indicated his desire to return to the accord, while Israel is pushing for any return to the deal to include fresh limitations on Iran’s ballistic missile program and support for terror and destabilization around the world.
On Wednesday, Walla News reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is assembling a team to strategize for the first talks with the Biden administration on Iran’s nuclear program.
The team will include officials representing national security elements, the Foreign Ministry, the Defense Ministry, the military, the Mossad spy agency, and the Atomic Energy Commission, the report said, citing unnamed sources in the Prime Minister’s Office.
Netanyahu is considering appointing a senior official to head the team and to serve as an envoy in talks with the US on the Iranian nuclear program, the report said.
A possible candidate to head the team is Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, the report said.
Channel 12 reported Saturday that Cohen was in Washington this week to meet with officials in the outgoing and incoming administrations.
US President-elect Joe Biden is expected to take a more conciliatory approach to Iran than the Trump administration and has said that if Iran returns to the terms of the 2015 nuclear agreement, he too would rejoin, removing the crushing economic sanctions that have wreaked havoc on the Iranian economy over the past two years. The US president-elect has indicated that he wants to negotiate more broadly with Tehran if Washington returns to the deal, notably over its missiles and influence across the Middle East. Iran has said it could welcome the return of the Americans to the agreement, but only after they lift sanctions. It has rejected negotiation on other issues.
Former US president Barack Obama, with Biden as his vice president, signed the Iran nuclear deal with world powers in 2015. The Trump administration withdrew from the accord in 2018 and pressured Iran with crippling economic sanctions and other measures.
Obama signed the agreement despite fierce protest from Israel, and had a rocky relationship with Jerusalem and Netanyahu, while the premier and Trump have been in lockstep on most Middle East policy issues.
The prospect of the US reengaging with Tehran has drawn warnings and alarm from Netanyahu and his allies.
Last week, speaking alongside US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin in Jerusalem, Netanyahu warned against the US rejoining the nuclear agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
“If we just go back to the JCPOA, what will happen and may already be happening is that many other countries in the Middle East will rush to arm themselves with nuclear weapons. That is a nightmare and that is folly. It should not happen,” Netanyahu said.
Likud MK Tzachi Hanegbi said Wednesday the incoming US administration must not “appease” Iran, and warned Tehran the Jewish state will not tolerate its military presence in Syria or its development of nuclear weapons.
In one of the most forceful statements recently made by an Israeli official, Hanegbi, considered an ally of Netanyahu, threatened that Israel could attack Iran’s nuclear program if the United States rejoined the nuclear deal.
Iran and the Trump administration have engaged in an ongoing exchange in recent months as President Donald Trump’s tenure draws to a close and Iran marked the one-year anniversary of the US assassination of its general Qassem Soleimani.
The back and forth has included threats, military maneuvers, legal action and escalating Iranian violations of the nuclear deal. Israeli and Iranian officials have also exchanged threats in recent weeks.
Channel 12 said Saturday that during his meetings with top Trump administration officials, Mossad chief Cohen was given the impression that there was no plan to attack Iran during the final days of the administration.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo publicly accused Iran of harboring al-Qaeda terrorists on Wednesday.
Iran resumed enriching uranium to 20 percent last week, well in excess of the threshold set out in the nuclear deal and a short jump from the level of enrichment needed to produce weapons.
Further complicating the Biden administration’s plans to reengage with Tehran were two high profile assassinations this year in Iran that were attributed to Israel. Top Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was gunned down outside Tehran in November in a hit Iranian officials blamed on Israel. In August, Israeli agents killed al-Qaeda’s second-in-command in Tehran at the behest of the US, according to a New York Times report.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-biden-team-already-holding-talks-with-iran-on-us-return-to-nuclear-deal/?fbclid=IwAR2ZMKfYOXUXhqX-12f9dYpi-saX8005A9k_mKt4eqVY73EXTuTBrA29wJU

US B-52 bombers fly over Middle East amid Iran tensions
Arab News/January 17/2021
LONDON: US B-52H Stratofortress bombers flew over the Middle East on Sunday in a show of military strength amid heightened tensions with Iran. The “presence patrol” mission took place a a day after two Iranian ballistic missiles reportedly landed within 100 miles of a US aircraft carrier strike group in the northern Indian Ocean. It is the fifth time in recent months that the US Air Force has flown similar missions over the region as tensions between Tehran and Washington escalated. US Central Command, which oversees American military operations in the region, said aircrews successfully completed the mission on Saturday. Earlier reports in Israeli media said two of the giant aircraft were seen flying over Israel. Gen. Frank McKenzie, Central Command’s commander, said such missions are ways to demonstrate the US military’s continuing commitment to regional security. “Short-term deployments of strategic assets are an important part of our defensive posture in the region,” he said. “The training opportunity and continued integration with regional partners improves readiness and delivers a clear and consistent message in the operational environment to both friends and potential adversaries, alike.”
Soleimani’s shadow

Qassem Soleimani left a trail of death and destruction in his wake as head of Iran’s Quds Force … until his assassination on Jan. 3, 2020. Yet still, his legacy of murderous interference continues to haunt the region
 

U.S. Bomber Overflies Mideast for 2nd Time This Year
Naharnet/January 17/2021
U.S. Air Force B-52H "Stratofortress" aircrews “successfully completed a presence patrol” in the Middle East on Sunday, marking the second such mission of 2021, the U.S. Central Command said. “Bomber Task Force missions are observable ways to demonstrate the U.S. military's continuing commitment to regional security,” said U.S. Central Command’s commander. "Short-term deployments of strategic assets are an important part of our defensive posture in the region," Gen. Frank McKenzie added. "The training opportunity and continued integration with regional partners improves readiness and delivers a clear and consistent message in the operational environment to both friends and potential adversaries, alike," he went on to say. This is the fifth Bomber Task Force mission into the Middle East in the last few months amid high tensions with Iran.
 

Suspicious Iranian Movements Near Syrian-Iraqi Borders after Israeli Bombing
Hasaka - Kamal Sheikho/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 January, 2021
Iranian militias have replaced their flags in their military sites and bases located in large areas of eastern Syria, with the flags of the Syrian regime, amid fears of a new Israeli attacks, according to local sources and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Sources in the cities of Al-Mayadin and Al-Bukamal, in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor, said that the IRGC transported ammunition and heavy weapons, including missiles, through refrigerators and trucks carrying Syrian plate numbers, as part of a camouflaged repositioning, days after the heaviest Israeli raids targeted eastern Syria. Well-informed sources revealed that the Iranian forces and pro-Iranian militias continue to change their positions in this geographical area along the Iraqi borders, pointing to “suspicious” movements of the Iranians and their allies in that region. According to the Jusoor Center for Studies and Development, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is deployed in 125 locations throughout Syria, distributed over 10 governorates, mainly Daraa in the South, which includes 37 military posts, followed by Damascus and its countryside with 22 sites and Aleppo in the north, with 15 military points and headquarters.
The Deir Ezzor Governorate has 13 Iranian posts, the largest of which are located in the cities of Al-Mayadeen and Al-Bukamal. Iran has been one of the largest military forces supporting the ruling regime in Syria, after Russia, since the outbreak of the anti-regime protests in the spring of 2011. Local activists, SOHR and the Jusoor Center reported that most Iranian fighters in Syria operate within the ranks of the IRGC and are deployed in southern Damascus, the southern countryside of Aleppo, the eastern countryside of Homs, and the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor.

Biden Aide Slams Trump Move on Yemen Rebels
Agence France Presse/Sunday, 17 January, 2021
The outgoing Trump administration's decision to classify Yemen's Huthi rebels as terrorists will only cause more suffering for the people of that war-torn nation, Joe Biden's nominee for national security advisor said Saturday.
The rebels control much of Yemen and have faced an offensive from U.S. ally Saudi Arabia, with millions in Yemen depending on aid to survive. Designating the Huthis a terrorist group is expected to halt many transactions with Huthi authorities, including bank transfers, paying medical personnel and for food and fuel, due to fears of U.S. prosecution. "Huthi commanders need to be held accountable, but designating the whole organization will only inflict more suffering on Yemeni people and impede diplomacy critical to end the war," Biden's pick for national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, tweeted. The designation is set to come into force on January 19 -- the eve of the inauguration of Biden, whose aides had hoped to mount a fresh push to end Yemen's six-year war. It is also seen as complicating the incoming U.S. leader's promised efforts to restart diplomacy with Iran, which has links to the Huthis. The terrorist classification has drawn criticism from aid groups, the European Union and many others over fears it will exacerbate the already dire humanitarian crisis in Yemen. "What is the likely humanitarian impact? The answer is a large-scale famine on a scale that we have not seen for nearly 40 years," Mark Lowcock, the U.N. undersecretary general for humanitarian affairs, said Thursday. Lowcock said exemptions to allow aid agencies to deliver supplies, as suggested by Washington, would not be sufficient to avoid a famine, adding "what would prevent it? A reversal of the decision."
 

PA Receives Assurances That Elections Will Take Place in Jerusalem
Ramallah - Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 January, 2021
Palestinian factions will meet in Cairo this week to settle any differences that could hinder holding general elections in the Palestinian territory, according to the Palestinian Central Elections Commission (CEC). In a press statement in Ramallah, Chairman of the CEC Hanna Nasser said the factions will meet to resolve some technical issues necessary to hold fair and transparent elections. The meeting in Cairo will be short and will result in a charter of honor for factions to abide by. “There are no guarantees that elections will be held in the occupied Jerusalem until the moment,” Nasser affirmed, hoping they would take place under certain pressures. “We have other alternatives, and what is important is that people from Jerusalem can take part in the election,” he added. On Friday, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas signed a presidential decree announcing dates for the first Palestinian elections in more than 15 years. He set the date of legislative polls for May 22 and a July 31 presidential vote. “The President instructed the election committee and all state apparatuses of the state to launch a democratic election process in all cities of the homeland,” the decree said, referring to the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem.
Meanwhile, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Pa had received assurances from European and Arab countries that elections will be held in Jerusalem. The sources said that Israel did not approve the election activity yet. However, several states and parties have promised to ensure that the residents of Jerusalem will be able to participate in the upcoming elections, sources added. Palestinians in Jerusalem participated twice before in the elections. The first was in the 2005 presidential elections and the second was in the 2006 legislative elections. Hamas welcomed Abbas’s announcement, saying: “We have worked in past months to resolve all obstacles so that we can reach this day.”The Palestinian people have the to right choose their leaders and representatives, Hamas noted. Secretary-General of the Palestinian Central Committee of Fatah Movement Jibril Rajoub said issuing the presidential decree was the first step to revive democracy and build a political system that contributes to achieving unity.

Morocco Jews 'Already Packing' for Direct Israel Flights
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 January, 2021
Fanny Mergui has no doubt: Moroccan Jews "are already packing their suitcases" to board direct flights to Israel after the kingdom normalized ties with the Jewish state. Morocco, home to North Africa's biggest Jewish community and the ancestral homeland of some 700,000 Israelis, is also hoping for an influx of Israeli tourists when the Covid-19 pandemic eases. "I'm very happy" that the five-hour route will be served by direct flights, said Mergui, a Moroccan Jew who lives in Casablanca.
"It's a true revolution."
The first direct commercial flight headed from Tel Aviv to Rabat in December to mark the three-way, US-brokered accord, under which Washington also recognized Moroccan sovereignty over disputed Western Sahara, AFP reported. But tickets for regular commercial flights have yet to go on sale. Bureaucratic delays have been compounded by the pandemic, which forced Morocco to mostly close its borders since March and impose a nationwide curfew in December. Singer Suzanne Harroch, who had to wait 14 hours in transit at a Paris airport last time she visited Israel, called the Israeli-Moroccan rapprochement a "miracle"."A lot of my family live there," said the 67-year-old. "I can't wait to see them more, and more often." Israel had established liaison offices in Morocco in the 1990s during a short-lived diplomatic opening. But they were closed again in the early 2000s as the second Palestinian intifada sparked a crushing Israeli response. Yet relations quietly continued, with some $149 million in bilateral trade between 2014-2017, according to Moroccan news reports. The re-opening of the liaison offices could make it much easier for Moroccans to obtain visas to visit Israel. Morocco is also hoping to host more Israeli visitors. Official statistics show that prior to the coronavirus pandemic, up to 70,000 Israeli tourists used to visit the country annually. Most were of Moroccan ancestry and had kept close ties with their country of origin. "The majority of Israelis of Moroccan origin are delighted," said Avraham Avizemer, who left Casablanca as a toddler and has lived for decades in Israel. The fact their children and grandchildren can return "is huge", he said. One Israeli already in Morocco is Elan. Today, about 3,000 Jews remain in Morocco. Businessman George Sebat, 56, said he was "very happy and very optimistic" about Morocco's normalization, citing positive impacts for tourism and the economy. Prosper Bensimon, speaking after the evening prayer at Casablanca's Em Habanim synagogue, agreed. "Four of my Muslim neighbors want to accompany me on my first visit from Morocco," he said. But normalization has not been universally welcomed by Moroccans. Sion Assidon, an academic and prominent left-wing activist who backs the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement against Israel's treatment of Palestinians, is bitterly opposed. Mergui, a former Zionist youth activist, said she had emigrated to Israel in the 1960s but returned to Morocco after the 1967 Six-Day War. "I could not accept that the Jewish state, which I believed in, should occupy Palestinian land," she said. She urged Israel to support "the creation of a Palestinian state". But, she added, she welcomes "every step towards peace".
 

Macron urged the French Council of the Muslim Faith (CFCM) to devise

 Arab News/January 17/2021
PARIS: Muslim leaders in France have proposed a new “charter of principles” requested by President Emmanuel Macron in his bid to eradicate sectarianism and extremism, with an agreement from the country’s Muslim federations possible as soon as Sunday. Macron urged the French Council of the Muslim Faith (CFCM) to devise the charter in November, after the killing of a schoolteacher who showed cartoons of the Prophet Mohamed to students. The push is part of Macron’s hopes to “liberate” Islam from radicalized influences that encroach on France’s strict secularism and which are blamed for a wave of extremist killings in recent years. His government has embarked on a crackdown against extremist mosques and associations, and plans to remove the roughly 300 imams in France sent to teach from Turkey, Morocco and Algeria. But several member federations of the CFCM have criticized the idea of a charter declaring Islam compatible with French law and values — the first step toward creating a national certification council for imams (CNI). On Saturday, however, CFCM president Mohammed Moussaoui and his two vice presidents hammered out an accord in a meeting with Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, which was submitted to the council’s federations for signatures on Sunday. “There was an awareness that these disagreements were preventing the Muslim community from asserting itself,” Moussaoui told AFP. “This awareness allowed us to overcome our differences. “I commend the work undertaken by the French Muslim community which clearly condemns political Islam,” Darmanin said on Twitter. The charter rejects “instrumentalising” Islam for political ends and affirms equality between men and women, while denouncing practices such as female circumcisions, forced marriages or “virginity certificates” for brides.
It also explicitly rejects racism and anti-Semitism, and warns that mosques “are not created for the spreading of nationalist speech defending foreign regimes.”Macron’s government is also pushing through legislation to combat “pernicious” Islamist radicalism, which would tighten rules on issues ranging from religious-based education to polygamy. The move, along with the president’s defense of controversial Mohamed cartoons published by Charlie Hebdo, has stoked anger among many in the Muslim world who believe Macron is unfairly targeting an entire religion.
Macron has rejected the claims, saying the law aims to protect the country’s estimated four to five million Muslims, the largest number in Europe.

Sudan Protesters Burn Israeli Flag in Rally against Normalization Deal
Agence France Presse/January 17/2021
Dozens of Sudanese protesters burned the Israeli flag Sunday during a rally against Khartoum's recent signing of a deal on normalizing relations with the Jewish state, an AFP correspondent reported. Demonstrators gathered outside the cabinet offices in the capital Khartoum, chanting anti-Israel slogans and carrying banners reading, "normalization is betrayal" and "normalization is a crime."On January 6, Sudan became the third Arab country to sign the U.S.-brokered "Abraham Accords" on normalizing ties with Israel after the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain last year. Morocco has also agreed a U.S.-sponsored "normalization" with Israel that restores past relations. The protesters, who said they belonged to an anti-normalization group, also carried banners reading "down with Abraham accords" and "Abraham Accords are American blackmail in exchange for submission." Sudan signed the accords less than a month after Washington removed Khartoum from its "state sponsors of terrorism" blacklist as part of a quid pro quo for the East African country normalizing ties with Israel. In October, Khartoum said its deal with the Jewish state would only come into force after its approval by a yet-to-be-formed parliament. The country has been undergoing a rocky transition since the army toppled long-time president Omar al-Bashir in 2019 following months of mass protests against his rule, triggered by economic hardship. The transitional administration, which took power months after Bashir's ouster, has been pushing to rebuild the country's economy beleaguered by decades of U.S. sanctions and internal conflict. It has sought to boost its international standing by forging closer ties with the U.S., as it grapples with a deepening economic crisis exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Kremlin critic Navalny takes off on plane to Russia despite arrest threat
Arab News/January 17/2021
BERLIN/MOSCOW: Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny took off on a plane bound for Russia on Sunday, to return home for the first time since he was poisoned last summer, despite Russian authorities’ stated desire to arrest him and potentially jail him for years. Navalny, one of President Vladimir Putin’s most prominent domestic critics, was flown to Berlin in August last year for emergency medical treatment after being poisoned with what German tests showed was a Novichok nerve agent. “This is the best moment in the last five months,” he told reporters after he boarded the plane in the German capital, bound for Moscow. “I feel great. Finally, I’m returning to my home town.” He announced his decision to return from Germany on Wednesday, and a day later Moscow’s prison service said it would do everything to arrest him once he returned, accusing him of flouting the terms of a suspended prison sentence for embezzlement, a 2014 case he says was trumped up. The 44-year-old, who boarded a plane in Berlin at the last minute from a car sitting on the tarmac, hence avoiding other passengers, made light of the risk of being arrested. He said he didn’t think he would be arrested, calling himself an innocent person.
“What do I need to be afraid of? What bad thing can happen to me in Russia?” he added. “I feel like a citizen of Russia who has every right to return,” he added. He was accompanied by his wife Yulia, and his spokeswoman. Navalny, who is hoping for success in parliamentary elections in September, faces potential trouble in three other criminal cases too, all of which he says are politically motivated. His return poses a conundrum for the Kremlin: jail him and risk protests and punitive Western action by turning him into a political martyr. Or do nothing and risk looking weak in the eyes of Kremlin hard-liners. He is expected to arrive in Moscow at around 1630 GMT. The opposition politician, who says he has nearly fully recovered, says Putin was behind his poisoning. The Kremlin denies involvement, says it has seen no evidence that he was poisoned, and that he is free to return to Russia. Navalny says the Kremlin is afraid of him. The Kremlin, which only refers to him as the “Berlin patient,” laughs that off. Putin allies point to opinion polls that show the Russian leader is far more popular than Navalny, whom they call a blogger rather than a politician. Navalny took a flight operated by Russian airline Pobeda, owned by state-controlled Aeroflot. His supporters plan to meet him at Moscow’s Vnukovo airport despite a forecast of bitterly cold minus 20 Celsius weather and over 4,500 new coronavirus cases a day in the Russian capital. So far, at least 2,000 people have used a Facebook page to say they plan to be there, with another 6,000 expressing an interest. Pro-Kremlin activists are also expected to turn up. The Moscow prosecutor’s office, which says it has officially warned 15 pro-Navalny organizers, has said the event is illegal because it is not sanctioned by the authorities. That means that people who turn up could be detained, fined or jailed. Reuters reporters saw a heavy police presence at the airport with dozens of police trucks.
Citing COVID-19 restrictions, the airport has said it will not allow media inside.

Allies Arrested at Airport as Kremlin Critic Navalny Flies Home
Agence France Presse/January 17/2021
Russian police detained top allies of Alexei Navalny at a Moscow airport on Sunday as the Kremlin critic was flying home from Germany under threat of imminent arrest. Navalny was returning to Russia for the first time since a near-fatal poisoning in August, in defiance of warnings from officials that they would arrest him for breaking the terms of a suspended prison sentence. Supporters had gathered at Moscow's Vnukovo airport, where his plane was due to land around 7:30 pm (1630 GMT), despite the airport banning mass events because of coronavirus restrictions. With his plane still in the air, police detained top aides including prominent Moscow activist Lyubov Sobol. Footage shot by local journalists showed police leading her and three others away, while there were reports of at least 10 people detained. The flight carrying Navalny from Germany, where the 44-year-old spent months recovering from the August poisoning, took off from Berlin's Brandenburg Airport just after 3:15 pm (1415 GMT), according to AFP journalists on the plane. Wearing a blue face mask, green jacket and scarf, Navalny boarded with his wife Yulia. Speaking to reporters on the plane, he said he did not fear being arrested on arrival in Moscow. "They will arrest me? They will arrest me? That's impossible, I'm an innocent person," Navalny said. "I feel I am a citizen of Russia who has the full right to return to his home." There was a heavy security presence at Vnukovo, AFP journalists at the airport said, including dozens of police in riot gear with black helmets and batons. Some Navalny supporters had also gathered, including Tanya Shchukina, an artist who had travelled from Saint Petersburg. "It is important for me, as a Russian citizen, to support this man, his courage," she told AFP. "After this assassination attempt... I had to come to support him, to show him that he is not alone, that everything will be okay."
Facing criminal probe
Navalny fell violently ill on a flight over Siberia in August and was flown out to Berlin in an induced coma. Western experts concluded he was poisoned with Soviet-designed nerve toxin Novichok and Navalny alleges the attack was carried out on the orders of President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin denies any involvement and Russian investigators said there were no grounds to launch a probe into the attack. Berlin said Saturday it had responded to requests for legal assistance from Moscow and handed over transcripts of an interview conducted by German police with Navalny. Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Sunday confirmed that Russia received the documents sent by Germany but they "essentially didn't contain anything" on the questions that Moscow had. Russia's prison service FSIN says Navalny may face jail time on arrival in Moscow for violating the terms of a 2014 suspended sentence he was handed on fraud charges. The FSIN said it would be "obliged" to detain Navalny once he returned to Russia. The anti-graft campaigner may also face criminal charges under a probe launched late last year by Russian investigators who say he misappropriated over $4 million worth of donations.
Navalny and his allies said the authorities were trying to intimidate him into not returning to Russia and encouraged supporters to gather at the airport.  In response to a Facebook event, more than 2,000 people said they were planning to go, despite temperatures in Moscow hovering around -20 degrees Celsius (-4 degrees Fahrenheit).
- Anti-corruption investigations -
Navalny has been the symbol of Russia's protest movement for a decade, after rising to prominence as an anti-corruption blogger and leading anti-government street rallies. Navalny publishes YouTube investigations into the wealth of Russia's political elites, some of which garner millions of views, making the activist's team a target of lawsuits, police raids and jail stints. Navalny is ignored or given negative coverage by state-controlled TV, the primary source of news for many Russians, which makes it unclear how much support he enjoys among ordinary citizens. According to a poll published by the independent Levada Centre last year, only 20 percent of respondents said they approved of Navalny's actions, while 50 percent disapproved. Navalny has never held elected office. He came second in a 2013 vote for mayor of Moscow but was barred from standing against Putin in the 2018 presidential elections. His allies are also frequently prevented from running for election. In 2019, several Navalny allies were barred from running for the Moscow city council, sparking mass rallies in the capital that lasted several weeks. His team has been gearing up to challenge the ruling United Russia party in elections to the lower house State Duma due in September.
 

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 17-18/2021

A Global Calamity: 340,000,000 Christians Persecuted
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone/ Institute/January 17/2021
ريموند إبراهيم/معهد كايتستون: كارثة عالمية مفادها أن 340 مليون مسيحي مضطهدون
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/95063/95063/
The “extreme persecution” that Christians experience in 10 of the absolute 12 worst nations comes from “Islamic oppression” or is occurring in Muslim majority nations. These include: Afghanistan (#2), Somalia (#3), Libya (#4), Pakistan (#5), Yemen (#7), Iran (#8), Nigeria (#9), Iraq (#11), and Syria (#12).
“80% of Indian Christians helped by Open Doors say they were passed over for food distribution during the COVID-19 pandemic.” — Open Doors, World Watch List.
Considering that for the first time in over a decade, China has made it among the top 20 persecutors in the Open Doors World Watch List — up to #17 from #23 last year — this does not bode well for Christians, who are already “intensely monitored by the state.”
Similarly, in Turkey, which rose to #25 from #36 last year, every citizen’s “religious affiliation is recorded on the electronic chip of identity cards, making it easy to discriminate against Christians.” — Open Doors, World Watch List.
“More Christians are murdered for their faith in Nigeria than in any other country.” — Open Doors, World Watch List.
Every day around the world, 13 Christians are killed for their faith; 12 are illegally arrested or imprisoned; 5 are abducted; and 12 churches or other Christian buildings are attacked.
These are among some of the disturbing findings of the recently released Open Doors’ 2021 World Watch List (WWL-2021). This annual report ranks the top 50 nations in which Christians are most persecuted for their religion.
All in all, “More than 340 million Christians suffer high levels of persecution and discrimination for their faith.” About 309 million of these Christians “suffer very high or extreme levels. That’s one in 8 worldwide, 1 in 6 in Africa, 2 out of 5 in Asia, and 1 in 12 in Latin America.” (Unless otherwise indicated, all quotes in this article are from the 2021 Open Doors World Watch List.)
For the reporting period covered by WWL-2021 (October 2019 – September 2020), “4,761 Christians were killed for their faith” — a 60% increase from last year (2,983). An additional 4,277 Christians were unjustly arrested, detained, or imprisoned; 1,710 were abducted for faith-related reasons; and 4,488 churches or Christian buildings were attacked.
For the twentieth year in a row, North Korea (#1) remained the worst nation:
“Being discovered as a Christian is a death sentence in North Korea. If you aren’t killed instantly, you will be taken to a labor camp as a political criminal. These inhumane prisons have horrific conditions, and few believers make it out alive. Everyone in your family will share the same punishment. Kim Jong-un is reported to have expanded the system of prison camps, in which an estimated 50-70,000 Christians are currently imprisoned.”
The “extreme persecution” that Christians experience in 10 of the absolute 12 worst nations comes from “Islamic oppression” or is occurring in Muslim majority nations. These include: Afghanistan (#2), Somalia (#3), Libya (#4), Pakistan (#5), Yemen (#7), Iran (#8), Nigeria (#9), Iraq (#11), and Syria (#12).
Among the worst, Afghanistan and Somalia, the “persecution is only very slightly less oppressive than in North Korea.” In the rest, Christians face persecution ranging from being harassed, beat, raped, imprisoned, or slaughtered merely for being identified as Christian or attending church.
Overall, the persecution Christians experience in 39 of the 50 nations on the list is also either from “Islamic oppression” or is occurring in Muslim majority nations. The overwhelming majority of these nations are governed by some form of shari’a (Islamic law). It is either directly enforced by government or society or, more frequently, both, although societies — family members in particular — tend to be more zealous in its application.
In India (#10) — the only non-Islamic nation alongside North Korea to make the top 12 — rising Hindu nationalism continues to use “extensive violence” against Christians based on the belief that “to be Indian is to be Hindu.” Christians are additionally “accused of following a ‘foreign faith’ and blamed for bad luck in their communities. These believers are often physically attacked and sometimes killed, as well as being under constant pressure from their family and community to return to Hinduism.”
Some of the more notable trends identified include:
Covid-19 was and is being “used as a weapon by persecutors,” according to Open Doors UK. Numerous incidents were “recorded across Asia and Africa—where vulnerable believers are deliberately neglected by local authorities when food is distributed, Christian nurses are denied vital PPE [personal protective equipment], and some Christians are even baselessly blamed for the spread of the virus.”
The pandemic has become a “catalyst for religious persecution through relief discrimination, forced conversion, and as justification for increasing surveillance and censorship.”
“80% of Indian Christians helped by Open Doors say they were passed over for food distribution during the COVID-19 pandemic.” Similarly, “Christians were left out of COVID-19 government relief in Bangladesh, often facing starvation or severe health issues.” And “some Christians in Ethiopia were discriminated against when government aid was distributed.” (See here for examples from other nations.)
Violence against and killings of Christians continued to rise “dramatically in sub-Saharan Africa,” according to Open Doors UK.
“Of the top six countries where Christians experience the most outright violence, five are in sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria – which re-entered the top 10 for the first time since 2015 – saw the most violence against Christians in 2020, with armed Fulani militants killing, burning, kidnapping and raping with impunity. Islamist violence is also why Cameroon rose to 42 from 48, and why Democratic Republic of Congo (40) and Mozambique (45) are new entries to the top 50.”
Communist China developed new restrictions and surveillance methods — including by installing more than 415 million facial recognition cameras to track people’s whereabouts — in order “to monitor citizens for their own ‘protection’ and ‘security,'” according to Open Doors UK. Considering that for the first time in over a decade, China has made it among the top 20 persecutors — up to #17 from #23 last year — this does not bode well for Christians, who are already “intensely monitored by the state.”
Similarly, in Turkey, which rose to #25 from #36 last year, every citizen’s “religious affiliation is recorded on the electronic chip of identity cards, making it easy to discriminate against Christians.”
A few other quotes of note from the WWL-2021:
“More Christians are murdered for their faith in Nigeria than in any other country.”
“In Egypt, kidnappings and forced marriages of Christian women and girls to their Muslim abductors has reached record levels.”
In the “beautiful island nation” of Maldives, which is Islamic, “Christian persecution takes place away from the eyes of international tourists.”
“In remote Vietnam, a woman who leaves her tribe’s beliefs to follow Jesus often loses any rights to see her children.”
Even in the most moderate Arab nation, “Violent Islamic extremists are active in the border areas in southern Tunisia—they will target any Christian.”
Perhaps the most disturbing trend is that the number of persecuted Christians continues to grow annually. According to the latest statistics, “More than 340 million of our Christian brothers and sisters live in places where they experience high levels of persecution and discrimination.” This represents a 31 % increase from 2020, when only “260 million Christians experience[ed] high levels of persecution.” That represented a 6% increase from 2019, when the number was only 245 million Christians. And that represented a 14% increase from 2018, when 215 million was the number.
In short, between just 2018 and 2021, the persecution of Christians has increased by nearly 60%.
How long before this seemingly irreversible trend reaches even those nations currently celebrated for their religious freedom?
**Raymond Ibrahim, author of the new book, Sword and Scimitar, Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute, a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center, and a Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16963/calamity-christians-persecuted

Iran’s line of succession in doubt amid Khamenei concerns
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 17/2021
There have been many rumors and reports about Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s deteriorating health for several years. This raises an important question: What will happen when Khamenei, supreme leader for almost 32 years, dies?
Experts, scholars, policy analysts and some politicians may jump into naming candidates who could replace him. But Khamenei’s death might lead to a nationwide uprising against the theocratic establishment, endangering its hold on power. Since millions of people will be allowed to attend his funeral, this could provide the perfect platform for an overwhelming majority of the population to demonstrate against the authorities.
Many in Iran believe that the paramount leader, who enjoys the final say on all Iran’s domestic and foreign policies, is the glue that holds the Islamic Republic together. His death could empower the population to rise up against the system. After all, disaffectedness toward the government and officials has reached an unprecedented level in the last few years.
Another possible scenario is that Khamenei might step down if his health status becomes critical. This way, there could be a monitored transition of power and the regime would eliminate the danger of being overthrown.
According to Iran’s constitution, several political bodies will play a role in deciding who will succeed Khamenei. However, the reality is that one particular organization — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which does not have constitutional authority in this matter — will probably be the final decision-maker. Over the past two decades, the IRGC has grown to be the country’s political and economic powerhouse.
Then the question becomes: Who does the senior cadre of the IRGC want to be the next supreme leader? The most important criterion for the IRGC elite is that they want an individual they can control, not vice versa. It follows that they would prefer a low-profile cleric who totally supports the IRGC’s activities, its political and economic monopoly, and its objectives, such as advancing Iran’s nuclear program and promoting the regime’s regional hegemonic ambitions. The last thing the IRGC wants is a supreme leader who would challenge their authority and power. Therefore, anyone who is considered a moderate or a reformist is not a serious candidate.
The supreme leader’s death could empower the population to rise up against the system.
People such as Ebrahim Raisi and Mojtaba Khamenei (the supreme leader’s second son) could be good candidates for the IRGC, as long as they keep a low profile, do not attempt to project their power and influence on the IRGC, and do not challenge the rule and autonomy of the IRGC leaders, the Guardian Council and the Expediency Council.
When Khamenei replaced the founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, he was among the least-qualified candidates, particularly when compared to influential people such as Hussein-Ali Montazeri. Montazeri, who was at one time the designated successor to Khomeini, was removed as the next in line because he challenged the authorities.
Khamenei’s divine authority, legitimacy and credibility were heavily questioned by the high-level clerics in the city of Qom. He was not even a Marja’ or Mujtahid, capable of issuing fatwa, which is a requirement of the constitution. He was also considered a weak supreme leader and lacking in charisma when compared to Khomeini. Because Iran’s constitution emphasizes the religious authority and qualifications of a supreme leader, Khamenei’s appointment was undoubtedly a political move rather than a religious one.
Although Khamenei was weak at the beginning, he was unexpectedly successful and managed to marginalize the high-level clerics who opposed him, creating his own inner circle and foreign policy office, while making a robust alliance with the IRGC in order to control the opposition. As time passed, his views also altered, and he became more in favor of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, as well as more anti-American. In other words, he created a political structure that is a combination of military dictatorship and theocracy.
Finally, there is a theory that the position of supreme leader might be abolished altogether if Khamenei dies. However, the foundational basis of the Islamic Republic and its interpretation of Shiite Islam are anchored in the concept of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), which was advanced by Khomeini. As a result, such a scenario is extremely unlikely.
In summary, if Supreme Leader Khamenei dies, either the nation will rise up against the regime and threaten its hold on power or the IRGC will manage to hand-pick a sycophant who would act as its puppet, granting it free rein in political and economic affairs, increasing its leverage over Iran’s other institutions.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Erdogan’s charm offensive hints at imminent Turkish shift
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/January 17/2021
After several daring initiatives, Turkey is slowly becoming aware that the time has come to make policy adjustments in many areas. In terms of domestic policy, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has solemnly announced that important reforms will be launched in the fields of the judiciary and the economy, but this article will focus on the initiatives in Ankara’s foreign relations.
Turkey has achieved some breakthroughs in its initiatives in Libya and in Nagorno-Karabakh. In Libya, Turkey’s support turned the course of events in favor of the UN-backed Government of National Accord and a military balance seems to have been established, although pressure for the withdrawal of foreign forces — including Turkey’s — continues. In Nagorno-Karabakh, the drones Azerbaijan purchased from Turkey proved to be effective in the recent military clashes. Furthermore, high-ranking Azeri military officials, trained in Turkey’s military staff college, performed well on the battlefield. This demonstrated to Azerbaijan the importance of its cooperation with Ankara.
Apart from the full-fledged success in Nagorno-Karabakh and some breakthroughs in Libya, Turkey has become aware that it has hit rock-bottom in its foreign relations. Ties with the US ran into trouble with Turkey’s purchase of the Russian-manufactured S-400 air defense system. Ankara continues to maintain its insistence on the deployment of the S-400. And, as if this was not enough, Erdogan also recently announced that negotiations with Russia for a second consignment of the system are under way.
Emphatic criticisms directed at Turkey by President-elect Joe Biden during the presidential campaign do not augur well for future bilateral relations. The positions are so entrenched on both sides that it is not easy to speculate on the possible outcome. Furthermore, the key positions that have a Turkey dimension in the Biden administration are being filled by nominees who, in the past, have supported policies that Ankara was not happy with.
Turkey seems to be trying to repair its relations with the US by appointing a political figure — a founding member of the ruling Justice and Development Party — as its ambassador to Washington. This may mean that the government wants to manage its relations with the US in a different manner than in the past.
However, the foreign policy areas in which Turkey has made the most striking steps are in its relations with the EU and the Gulf countries.
Apart from Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya, Turkey has become aware that it has hit rock-bottom in its foreign relations.
It has rediscovered the importance of good ties with both the EU and individual European countries. A charm offensive seems to be under way with many EU countries. For example, Turkey has appointed to Paris a professional diplomat who was a classmate of French President Emmanuel Macron in the prestigious National School of Administration.
Erdogan also dispatched Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu to several capitals with instructions to improve relations. And, on Tuesday last week, the president addressed EU ambassadors in Ankara, telling them that Turkey remains committed to the accession process. He explicitly said that he wants to open a new page in the country’s relations with the EU. He used conciliatory language regarding relations with France, which were strained late last year, and announced that “exploratory talks” with Greece are scheduled to resume toward the end of this month. These talks, which started at the turn of the century, are still called “exploratory” despite the fact we are now in the 61st round.
The most visible turnaround, however, was with the Gulf countries. Erdogan had a telephone conversation with King Salman. Meanwhile, Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri visited Istanbul, with rumors saying this was to repair Turkey’s damaged relations with the Gulf states.
For years, relations have been tense between Turkey and the UAE. Emirati Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash has said the UAE would be ready to improve ties with Turkey if Ankara ceased being the primary backer of the Muslim Brotherhood. Whether or not Turkey will do so remains to be seen.
A sensitive aspect of Turkey’s relations with the Gulf countries is its close ties with Qatar. The closure of the Turkish military base in Qatar was one of the 13 conditions put forward by the Anti-Terror Quartet before relations with Doha would be resumed. Although the Gulf dispute has been resolved, if these states continue to insist on this issue then Turkey-Qatar ties are bound to face problems.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is said to have mediated efforts to improve Turkey’s ties with Israel, with whom he maintains good relations. And Turkish media reports have claimed that there are high-level contacts between the Turkish and Egyptian intelligence agencies. There are frequent stories in both countries that relations will be normalized sooner rather than later.
Almost all of these initiatives have taken place in a period of just one or two weeks. We may, therefore, presume that something is brewing in Turkey’s decision-making process. But it will not be easy to forgive and forget all that has been said and done between Turkey and all these countries in the recent past.
**Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar

Where it all went wrong for Trump
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/January 17/2021
For the first time in US history, a president has been impeached twice. Meanwhile, four years of Donald Trump has resulted in the Republicans losing both the House and the Senate, as well as states that are traditionally ruby red like Georgia. So what went wrong?
At one point in time, most people expected Trump to win a second term as president. Following the 2019 closure of the Russia probe led by Robert Mueller, which Trump described as a vindication, it was widely thought that Trump could garner people’s sympathy by claiming he was the target of an unlawful witch-hunt. Added to that, the economy was growing and jobs were being created, although that was at the expense of a growing budget deficit and public debt. However, the average Joe was able to get a job and CEOs and shareholders were happy with their increasing profits due to Trump’s tax cuts. Then came the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and everything went downhill from there.
One problem with Trump, according to one who was part of his inner circle but had a falling out with him, is that Trump listens only to Trump. He had never worked in government before being elected president and had never even worked for anyone but himself. The president’s autocratic style of management might work when one is running one’s own business, but not when managing a country of 332 million people that is the world’s largest economy and has the biggest military.
The main problem with Trump, however, is his flawed character. His whimsical decision-making and brash policies were often sugarcoated as “disruptive” by his aides. But the instability and impression of chaos caused by his persona drove many away from him, even those who were benefiting from their relationship. Joe Biden raised more money than Trump from the financial sector and, though businesses were happy with Trump’s tax cuts, their satisfaction with the resulting profits were eclipsed by their disapproval of his style of conducting business. This led them to support Biden in the hope he would ensure a more stable business environment, generated by more consistent and cohesive policies, even if this means more taxes.
When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, Trump started to conduct daily briefings with his team of scientists, including Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx. However, when he did not approve of their scientific recommendations, he went off on a tangent and started giving his own views, one of which alluded to injecting disinfectant to kill the virus, which his opponents used against him very effectively. Citizens felt a lack of leadership regarding the pandemic, as the White House could not agree on the facts and the president kept contradicting scientists and firing those who failed to toe the line.
The president received a major blow when unemployment started to rise again thanks to the virus outbreak.
Trump, whose main selling point to the American public was his handling of the economy, received a major blow when unemployment started to rise again thanks to the virus outbreak. And, as the country got closer to the election, people lost more and more faith in the president’s ability to control the pandemic that was destroying the economy. By October, 59 percent of the American people disapproved of Trump’s handling of the virus crisis.
Another stumble in Trump’s presidential career was his handling of the protests that followed the death of black man George Floyd while he was being arrested by a white police officer in Minneapolis. Trump’s defiant attitude was like pouring oil on the fire. Protests and clashes broke out all over the country and the president’s statements failed to reinforce unity and national cohesion. Two-thirds of Americans thought Trump inflamed racial tensions, which negatively affected his approval rating.
In a last-minute bid to pull a rabbit out of the hat, Trump aimed to score a big foreign policy win — and he managed to broker normalization treaties between the UAE and Bahrain and Israel. However, the American public, which was preoccupied with the racial divide and the pandemic, did not seem impressed or interested in this achievement. White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany even slammed the media during a daily briefing for not asking about the peace deals that her boss had managed to seal.
Trump was used to criticizing and offending whoever he wanted. He speaks his mind and his loyal supporters love him for what they perceive to be a sign of authenticity. However, the controversial president cost the Republicans dearly in the ballots of Georgia and Arizona, which were lost to the Democrats in November’s election. Trump had attacked the late Arizona Sen. John McCain, who refused to endorse the president, while he was alive and even continued to show disrespect after his death. The feud with McCain, who is revered in Arizona for his heroism, was one of the main reasons for Trump’s defeat in the state. The same applies to John Lewis of Georgia. A pioneer in the civil rights movement, Lewis was an American icon who fought racial segregation. The late congressman was also the target of Trump attacks. His district, which Trump in 2017 called “horrible,” helped Biden win the traditionally Republican state.
Trump will remain one of the few presidents to have only served one term. Unlike Jimmy Carter, who faced the Iran hostage crisis, and George H. W. Bush, who despite winning the first Gulf War reneged on a campaign promise of not raising taxes, Trump cannot blame his defeat on a foreign policy disaster or a failure to keep his word. Instead, Trump’s major hurdle has been his own character.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She holds a Ph.D. in politics from the University of Exeter and is an affiliated scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

How the Biden presidency might impact Turkey’s Kurdish problem
David Romano//Arab News/January 17/2021
There have been many rumors and reports about Ira
MISSOURI, US: A good many Kurds in Turkey and elsewhere will be celebrating the departure of US President Donald Trump when he leaves office on Jan. 20.
Those in Iraq will remember when his administration hung them out to dry during their independence referendum, allowing Iran, Baghdad and Shiite militias to attack, while Turkey threatened to blockade them.
Turkey, meanwhile, had little reason to fear American outcry over its human rights violations as it arrested and jailed thousands of pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy Party (HDP) activists and their elected representatives.
And in case this did not prove sufficiently disappointing for the Kurds, Trump withdrew US troops from the Turkish border in northeastern Syria in October 2019, giving Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan the green light to invade the Kurdish enclaves there and ethnically cleanse hundreds of thousands from the area. Kurdish forces in Syria, who had just concluded the successful ground campaign against Daesh, found themselves betrayed by a callous and unpredictable American administration. Just days before Trump greenlit the Turkish operation in a phone call with Erdogan, the Americans had convinced the Syrian Kurds to remove their fortifications near the Turkish border to “reassure Turkey.”
Most Kurds therefore look forward to President-elect Joe Biden taking over in Washington. In Turkey, from which roughly half the world’s Kurdish population hails, many hope the new Biden administration will pressure Ankara to cease its military campaigns and return to the negotiating table with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). At the very least, they hope a Biden-led administration will not remain silent as Erdogan’s government tramples upon human rights in Turkey and launches military strikes against Kurds in Syria and Iraq as well.
Judging by the record of the Obama administration, in which Biden served as vice-president, Kurds may expect some improvements over Trump. But they should also not raise their hopes too high. One need only recall how Erdogan’s government abandoned the Kurdish peace process in 2015, when the Obama administration was still in power. At that time, the HDP’s improved electoral showing in the summer of 2015 cost Erdogan his majority in parliament. He responded by making sure no government could be formed following the June election, allowing him to call a redo election for November.
Between June and November, his government abandoned talks with the Kurds and resumed the war against the PKK. The resulting “rally around the flag” effect saw Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) improve its showing in November, boosted further by the Turkish army siege of entire Kurdish cities, which in effect disenfranchised them. Following the November 2015 vote, Erdogan formed a new government with the far-right and virulently anti-Kurdish National Action Party (MHP).
The militarization of Ankara’s approach to its “Kurdish problem” increased even further under the AKP-MHP partnership. In 2015 and 2016, whole city blocks in majority Kurdish cities of southeastern Turkey were razed to the ground as part of the counterinsurgency campaign. In the town of Cizre, the army burned Kurdish civilians alive while they hid in a basement.
In Sirnak, footage emerged of Turkish forces dragging the body of a well-known Kurdish filmmaker behind their armored vehicle. In Nusaybin, MHP parliamentarians called for the razing of the entire city.
Urban warfare is never pretty, of course, and the PKK held part of the blame for the destruction as a result of its new urban warfare strategy. Many aspects of the Erdogan government’s counterinsurgency actions of 2015 and 2016 went beyond the pale, however, and should have earned at least some rebukes from Washington. The Obama administration stayed largely silent during this time. Policy makers in Washington had finally gained Turkish acquiescence to use NATO air bases in Turkey in their campaign against Daesh and Ankara has also promised to join the effort.
What Obama really received from Ankara, however, were a few token Turkish airstrikes of little significance against Daesh and a rising crescendo of heavy attacks against America’s Kurdish allies in Syria.
Erdogan’s government duly reported every cross-border strike and various incursions and invasions into Syria as “operations against terrorist organizations in Syria” — conveniently conflating Daesh and the Syrian Kurdish forces.
Turkey even employed former Daesh fighters and other Syrian radical groups among its proxy mercenaries in these operations, further aggravating Syria’s problems with militant Islamists.
INNUMBERS
87 Media workers detained or imprisoned for terrorism offenses.
8,500 People detained or convicted for alleged PKK ties.
The quid pro quo of this arrangement involved Washington turning a blind eye to Turkey’s human rights abuses against Kurds both in Syria and Turkey. Even Turkish airstrikes in Iraq, which at times killed Iraqi army personnel and civilians in places like Sinjar, failed to elicit any American rebukes — under Obama or Trump.
If the new Biden administration returns to the standard operating procedures of the Obama administration regarding Turkey, little may change.
Although a Biden administration would probably not callously throw erstwhile Kurdish allies in Syria or Iraq under the bus as Trump did, they might well continue to cling to false hopes of relying on Turkey to help contain radical Islamists. Many in Washington even think Turkey can still help the US counter Russia and Iran — never mind the mountain of evidence that Turkey works with both countries to pursue an anti-American agenda in the region.
Alternatively, Biden may prove markedly different to his incarnation as vice president. Biden knows the region well, has called Erdogan an autocrat on more than one occasion and has repeatedly shown sympathy for the Kurds and their plight in the past. In charge of his own administration rather than acting as an aide to Obama’s, Biden could conceivably break new ground regarding Turkey and the Kurds. If so, he might start by pressuring Turkey to abide by human rights norms. Selahattin Demirtas, the former HDP leader and 2018 Turkish presidential hopeful, as well as tens of thousands of other political dissidents have been languishing in pre-trial detention in Turkey for years now.
In December 2020, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Demirtas’ detention is politically motivated and based on trumped-up charges and that he must be released. Although Turkey is a signatory to the court, it has repeatedly ignored such rulings. A more human rights-oriented administration in Washington might join the likes of France and others in pressuring Ankara on such matters.
A determined Biden administration might also try to coax or pressure Ankara back to the negotiating table with the PKK. A return to even indirect negotiations, especially if overseen by the Americans, could go a long way towards improving things in both Turkey and Syria. Little more than five years ago, Turkey’s southeast was quiet and Syrian Kurdish leaders were meeting as well as cooperating with Turkish officials.
If Erdogan and his MHP partners nonetheless remain adamant in maintaining their internal and external wars, then Biden should look elsewhere for American partners. Biden said as much only last year, expressing his concern about Erdogan’s policies. “What I think we should be doing is taking a very different approach to him now, making it clear that we support opposition leadership ... . He (Erdogan) has to pay a price,” Biden said.
Washington should embolden Turkish opposition leaders “to be able to take on and defeat Erdogan. Not by a coup, not by a coup, but by the electoral process,” he added.This kind of language from the new Biden administration might go a long way towards changing the current policy calculus in Ankara.
**• David Romano is Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University