English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 17/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news
 

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Bible Quotations For today

If the part of the dough offered as first fruits is holy, then the whole batch is holy; and if the root is holy, then the branches also are holy
Letter to the Romans 11/13-24: “Now I am speaking to you Gentiles. Inasmuch then as I am an apostle to the Gentiles, I glorify my ministry. in order to make my own people jealous, and thus save some of them. For if their rejection is the reconciliation of the world, what will their acceptance be but life from the dead! If the part of the dough offered as first fruits is holy, then the whole batch is holy; and if the root is holy, then the branches also are holy. But if some of the branches were broken off, and you, a wild olive shoot, were grafted in their place to share the rich root of the olive tree, do not vaunt yourselves over the branches. If you do vaunt yourselves, remember that it is not you that support the root, but the root that supports you. You will say, ‘Branches were broken off so that I might be grafted in.’That is true. They were broken off because of their unbelief, but you stand only through faith. So do not become proud, but stand in awe. For if God did not spare the natural branches, perhaps he will not spare you. Note then the kindness and the severity of God: severity towards those who have fallen, but God’s kindness towards you, provided you continue in his kindness; otherwise you also will be cut off. And even those of Israel, if they do not persist in unbelief, will be grafted in, for God has the power to graft them in again. For if you have been cut from what is by nature a wild olive tree and grafted, contrary to nature, into a cultivated olive tree, how much more will these natural branches be grafted back into their own olive tree.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 16-17/2021

Video-Text/A/E: No Solution In Lebanon Without A UN Military Intervention/Elias Bejjani/January 16/2021
Heath Ministry: 5872 new Corona cases, 41 deaths
Lebanon Hits Record Coronavirus Deaths, Infections
U.S. Embassy in Beirut Urges Lebanese to 'Stay Home'
Bizri: Gradual Vaccine Shipments Start Next Month
President signs three Parliament-approved laws: Regulating Corona vaccine use, extending deadlines, and twelfth rule
NLP calls for using ‘Camille Chamoun Sports City’ stadiums as a field hospital
Najem: Hariri will not apologize
Geagea blasts current parliamentary majority
US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
Report: A Fresh Quest for French Intervention to Thaw Govt Tension Fails
Acknowledge 45th Anniversary of Damour Massacre, Commit to Reform

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 16-17/2021

Biden Recruits Federal Muscle for Vaccine Blitz
Trump to Leave Town Early Wednesday before Biden Inauguration
Iran’s long-range missile land close to US Navy ships in Indian Ocean
Iranian Guard Holds Anti-warship Ballistic Missile Drill
Belgian court postpones verdict in Iranian diplomat case
France, Britain, Germany warn Iran against uranium metal work
U.S. Carries Out Last Federal Execution of Trump Era
U.S. Calls Bahrain, UAE 'Major Security Partners'

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 16-17/2021

Will Israel lose its freedom to operate against Iran? - opinion/Ruthie Blum/Jerusalem Post/January 16/2021
Israel, Iran fight for influence over Biden administration/Yaakov Katz/Jerusalem Post/January 16/2021
US Media: 'Telling China's Story Well'/Judith Bergman/ Gatestone Institute/January 16/2021
Biden Should Build on the Abraham Accords, Not Roll Them Back/Jay Solomon/The Washington Institute & Newsweek website/January 16/2021
Deciphering Iran’s Latest Nuclear Messaging/Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/January 16/2021
Postponing Iraqi elections seen as an opportunity for Kadhimi to boost political fortunes/Hammam Latif/ The Arab Weekly/January 16/2021
With the US divided, corporate America spies an opportunity/Raghida Dergham/The National/January 16/ 2021
Can Biden rebuild America’s fractured global standing?/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/January 16/2021
How Iran serves as ‘a key geographic hub for Al-Qaeda’/Oubai Shahbandar/Arab News/January 16/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 16-17/2021

Video-Text/A/E: No Solution In Lebanon Without A UN Military Intervention
Elias Bejjani/January 16/2021
الياس بجاني/لا حل لكارثة الإحتلال الإيراني للبنان دون تدخل عسكري مبإشر بإشراف مجلس الأمن الدولي
Sadly most of the free and patriotic Lebanese from all walks of life, and specially those who are living in the Diaspora, like myself, all strongly believe there is no way any more or any slight hope that the Lebanese themselves are alone able to rescue their own country and free it from both, the Iranian occupation and the local Mafiosi political class.
The country has reached a stage of chaos that made the Lebanese helpless and unable to do any thing, but to leave Lebanon if this option is available for them.
practically, Lebanon and the Lebanese are both kidnapped by the armed Iranian terrorist proxy, Hezbollah by force, intimidation, murder, oppression and all kinds of barbaric and savage evil means.
Meanwhile all the ruling officials, as well as the political class from the top to the bottom of the governing hierarchy especially and foremost the president and both the Prime Minster and the House speaker as well as the Parliamentary majority are all mere puppets, mercenaries and Trojans.
The satanic occupation formula that is destroying systematically every thing in Lebanon is a marriage between the armed and terrorist Iranian Militia which is Hezbollah, and the criminal Mafia which is the political class with no one exception.
Corruption, chaos, and all kinds of crimes are invading the country on all levels and in all domains in both the public and the private sectors.
Banks are holding peoples’ assets and money and impoverishing them, while the majority of the financial experts believe that the these banks are all heading towards bankruptcy very soon.
There is no way that the Lebanese and their country who are both kidnapped and taken by Iran and its Hezbollah hostages can free themselves alone without a regional and international serious and powerful military help via the United Nations assembly.
The only window of help that the Lebanese are hoping to see open wide is the formal and official UN declaration of Lebanon as a rouge-failed country.
Lebanon sooner and later Must be declared a rogue-failed country and put under the UN clause # 07.
A UN urgent military intervention under clause number 07 is the only left vehicle to rescue the hostage, occupied and kidnapped Lebanon.
In conclusion, there is No hope from the political Lebanese rotten and corrupted class, or from getting rid of the terrorist Iran military proxy, Hezbollah without an urgent UN foreign military intervention.

Heath Ministry: 5872 new Corona cases, 41 deaths
NNA/January 16/2021
The Public Health Ministry announced, on Saturday, that 5872 new Coronavirus cases have been reported, thus bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 249,158.
It also indicated that 41 deaths have also been reported during the past 24 hours.

Lebanon Hits Record Coronavirus Deaths, Infections
Naharnet/January 16/2021
Lebanon hit new daily records of 44 coronavirus deaths and over 6,000 new infections Friday, the second day of a lockdown aimed at preventing the country's creaking healthcare system from collapsing. The country of six million recorded 6,154 new infections over the past 24 hours, the health ministry said, as hospitals in Beirut reached full capacity. The announcement came as the American University of Beirut's medical centre, one the country's top facilities, said that its intensive care units, COVID-19 units and emergency room were all full. "We are unable to find beds for even the most critical patients," it said in a statement. The World Health Organisation says that occupancy rates for ICU beds across the country has reached 90.4 per cent, up from 81 per cent on December 22. Occupancy rates for regular beds has shot up from 72.5 percent to 86.3 percent over the same period, it added.
Recent days have seen cases surge in one of the steepest increases in transmission worldwide. Lebanon has recorded 243,286 coronavirus cases and 1,825 deaths since its outbreak started in February. Infections skyrocketed after authorities loosened restrictions during the holiday season, allowing restaurants and nightclubs to remain open until 3:00 am, despite warnings from health professionals. On Thursday, a strict 11-day lockdown came into force, imposing a round-the-clock curfew and barring residents even from grocery shopping. Sleiman Haroun, head of the Syndicate of Private Hospitals, said Friday that such facilities were all nearly full. "Despite a substantial increase in the number of beds, the occupancy rate in most private hospitals is nearly 100 percent," he told AFP.  "Several, including those who have recently set up specialised units, have already reached capacity". A hospital outside Beirut where health minister Hamad Hasan is receiving coronavirus treatment converted its cafe into a COVID-19 unit to deal with the influx of new patients, an AFP correspondent said. Other hospitals in the capital have repurposed their ER and pediatrics wards to treat coronavirus patients. Lebanon hopes to receive its first shipment of Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccines in mid-February. Parliament on Friday approved a bill to allow the import and use of Covid-19 jabs by both the state and the private sector.

U.S. Embassy in Beirut Urges Lebanese to 'Stay Home'
Naharnet/January 16/2021
As Lebanon witnesses a full lockdown to stem the spread of coronavirus, the U.S. embassy in Beirut made a notable gesture on its official Twitter account urging the Lebanese to "stay home."“Let us all help limit the escalating spread of coronavirus in Lebanon, to protect our loved ones and support doctors, nurses, and courageous workers in their huge mission,” the embassy said in a tweet on Friday. Lebanon hit new daily records of 44 coronavirus deaths and over 6,000 new infections Friday, the second day of a lockdown aimed at preventing the country's creaking healthcare system from collapsing. The country of six million recorded 6,154 new infections over the past 24 hours, the health ministry said, as hospitals in Beirut reached full capacity. The announcement came as the American University of Beirut's medical centre, one the country's top facilities, said that its intensive care units, COVID-19 units and emergency room were all full. Lebanon has recorded 243,286 coronavirus cases and 1,825 deaths since its outbreak started in February. On Thursday, a strict 11-day lockdown came into force, imposing a round-the-clock curfew and barring residents even from grocery shopping.

Bizri: Gradual Vaccine Shipments Start Next Month
Naharnet/January 16/2021
Head of the national scientific committee for COVID-19, Dr. Abdul Rahman Bizri said on Saturday, the countdown to receiving the coronavirus vaccine has begun, but noted that Pfizer “is not lenient” with Lebanon on the financial issue. “The real countdown has begun to receive the vaccine in the first half of February, we could even receive it in the first quarter of the month,” announced Bizri in remarks to LBCI television daily show Nharkom Saeed. He said Lebanon will gradually receive the shipment it requested from Pfizer and other companies, “but our problem is that Lebanon is still classified a middle-income country, and Pfizer is not lenient with us on the financial issue," he added. Bizri noted that frontline responders including healthcare workers, nurses and the paramedics should be the first to get the vaccine, even before the doctors do. On the availability of storage facilities for the vaccine, he said: “We have a minimum of 20 refrigerators, and there is no problem with the storage capacity of Pfizer vaccines,” indicating that there is a mechanism for using vaccines within 5 days of arrival.
 

President signs three Parliament-approved laws: Regulating Corona vaccine use, extending deadlines, and twelfth rule
NNA/January 16/2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, signed today the three laws that were approved by the Parliament in yesterday’s session:
 - Law No. 211 related to regulating the emerging use of medicinal products to combat the "COVID-19"
 - Law No. 212 relating to the extension of time limits
 - Law No. 213 aiming at authorizing the collection of revenues as in the past and the disbursement of expenditures from the first of February 2021 until the issuance of the 2021 budget, on the basis of the twelfth rule.
As a result of the President’s signature, these laws become effective and valid for publication in the Official Gazette, and shall come into force upon publication. --{Presidency Press Office}

NLP calls for using ‘Camille Chamoun Sports City’ stadiums as a field hospital
NNA/January 16/2021
In an issued statement by the "National Liberal Party" on Saturday, it called on the Ministry of Public Health to use the stadiums of Camille Chamoun Sports City as a field hospital to save time, and also to make use of the two field hospitals provided by the State of Qatar where needed, away from serving narrow interests.“The conditions have become very pressing due to the critical health situation,” the statement said, calling for ceasing all exploitation and moving away from populist stances and electoral investments for the citizen’s sake and wellbeing.

Najem: Hariri will not apologize
NNA/January 16/2021
Head of the Public Works, Transport, Energy and Water Parliamentary Committee, MP Nazih Najem, emphasized Saturday that the country will not be able to go on without a government, while the current attitude of stubbornness and tension continues to prevail at the political level.
Reiterating the urgent need for a rescue cabinet that has nothing to do with parties but with people, their economy, their lives and daily sufferings, Najem stressed that Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri will not apologize and will pursue his mission in forming the new government. In an interview with “Voice of All Lebanon” Radio Station this morning, he wished that the President of the Republic would cast aside all advisors around him and communicate directly with the Prime Minister-designate, since the country can no longer tolerate any further delays in forming the long-awaited government. "Hariri will not apologize, and he is not evading his responsibilities. He has already presented his cabinet line-up to the President of the Republic, and it remains up to the Presidency of the Republic to approve it. Our project is the state’s project, and an entire government cannot be dropped just for the sake of some names," Najem underlined. Touching on the COVID-19 outbreak in the country, the MP revealed that “PM-designate Hariri is seeking to obtain a large amount of vaccines that will arrive in the form of aid.”
 

Geagea blasts current parliamentary majority
NNA/January 16/2021
Head of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea, on Saturday, harshley criticized Hezbollah, President Michel Aoun, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and their allies, saying: "There can be no progress nor can rescue be achieved in Lebanon as long as the current parliamentary majority is made up of Hezbollah and the party of the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun and their allies."He added: "As in any true democracy, I strongly believe that early parliamentary elections are the only way to bring about change and find solutions to Lebanon's long-standing problems." Geagea pointed out that despite the current political instability and the socio-economic crisis in Lebanon, the Lebanese Forces Party remains committed to combating state corruption and narrow personal calculations, thus establishing the rule of law, transparency and integrity.

US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
NNA/January 16/2021
The Money Changers Syndicate announced in a statement addressed to money changing companies and institutions, Saturday’s USD exchange rate against the Lebanese pound as follows:
Buying price at a minimum of LBP 3850
Selling price at a maximum of LBP 3900

Report: A Fresh Quest for French Intervention to Thaw Govt Tension Fails
Naharnet/January 16/2021
After the leaked “video crisis” between President Michel Aoun and PM-designate Saad Hariri, “prominent” politicians sought France’s intervention to mitigate the lingering tension between the two men, in a bid to ease the government formation deadlock, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Saturday. “Well-informed sources” who spoke on condition of anonymity to the daily about the “endeavor,” did not specify the sides contacted in Paris. But they noted a “discouraging” reply on part of France, reflecting a desire not to intervene, according to the daily. Moreover, the sources reportedly carried “great dissatisfaction with the performance of Lebanese officials and their departure from the French initiative, hence bringing Lebanon to a very difficult stalemate.” Tension escalated further last week between Aoun and Hariri against the backdrop of a leaked video that showed Aoun caught on camera accusing Hariri of “lying,” about the government formation. Since the designation of Hariri to form a government in October, efforts have failed to yield results despite promises of an imminent cabinet formation late last year. In response to Aoun’s video attacks, Hariri tweeted a bible verse about "cheating". Efforts to form a new government in Lebanon seem halted until Hariri returns back from a trip to the United Arab Emirates. Circles close to Hariri, said the PM-designate seeks to restore Lebanon’s Arab and foreign ties.

Acknowledge 45th Anniversary of Damour Massacre, Commit to Reform
Coalition of Concerned Christians started this petition to Palestinian Authority and Its Allies
January 20, 2021 marks the 45th anniversary of the Damour Massacre which took place over the course of several days in January 1976.
PLO forces murdered between 500 and 1,000 Lebanese Christians in Damour, Lebanon. The massacre, which began on January 20, 1976 lasted for days and was committed in retaliation for the Karantina massacre in East Beirut perpetrated by Christian Phalangists a few weeks before, itself a reaction to the killing of Christians in several areas of Beirut.
The Karantina and Damour massacres were part of a tit-for-tat war between various factions during the Lebanese Civil War, a war caused by the PLO’s destabilizing presence in the country.
The PLO had been previously ejected from Jordan for its effort to topple the government in that country after the Six Day War. By creating a state-within-a-state in Jordan, the PLO set the stage for a civil war (also known as “Black September”) that cost approximately 4,000 people their lives in 1970. Then it went to Lebanon to build yet another state-within-a-state that undermined the already fragile political structure of Lebanon, which descended into a civil war that lasted from 1975 to 1990 and cost more than 100,000 people their lives.
The Damour Massacre is yet another example that wherever the PLO goes, it causes mayhem and destruction. Now the PLO controls the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank.
If the PLO hadn’t tried to topple Jordan’s King Hussein, the PLO would not have needed to flee into Lebanon. Once it was in Lebanon, the terrorist organization had no right to interfere in that country’s politics and create a state-within-a-state. And whatever right the PLO had in punishing the perpetrators for the Karantina Massacre did not legitimize the murder of innocent civilians in Damour several weeks later.
The details surrounding the Damour Massacre are horrific.
Writing in Arutz Sheva in 2002, Murray Kahl provides detail: Before the arrival of the PLO, [Damour] was a town of some 25,000 people with five churches, three chapels, seven schools, both private and public, and one public hospital where Muslims from nearby villages were treated along with the Christians at the expense of the town.On 9 January 1976, the priest of Damour, Father Mansour Labaky, was carrying out a Maronite […] custom of blessing the houses with holy water when a bullet whistled past his ear and hit one of the houses. He soon learned that the town was surrounded by the forces of Sa’iqa, a PLO terrorist group affiliated with Syria. The shooting and shelling continued all day. When Father Labaky telephoned a local Muslim sheikh and asked him, as a fellow religious leader, what he could do to help the people of the town, the sheikh replied, “I can do nothing. They want to harm you. It is the Palestinians. I cannot stop them.” Other Lebanese politicians, of both the Left and the Right, proved equally unhelpful, offering only apologies and commiserations. Kamal Jumblatt, in whose parliamentary constituency Damour lay, told Labaky, “Father, I can do nothing for you, because it depends on Yasser Arafat.” The Maronite priest then called Arafat’s headquarters, but was deferred to a subordinate, who told him “Father, don’t worry. We don’t want to harm you. If we are destroying you it is for strategic reasons.”
Despite the pleas, the violence continued against the Christians of Damour. Labaky described the final attack that took place on 23 January 1976:
It was an apocalypse. They were coming, thousands and thousands, shouting “Allahu Akbar! God is Great! Let us attack them for the Arabs, let us offer a holocaust.” They were slaughtering everyone in their path, men, women, and children. Whole families were killed in their homes. Many women were gang-raped, and few of them left alive afterwards.
The horror of this massacre needs to be reckoned with by both the Palestinian Authority and Christian institutions that advocate for the Palestinian cause in both the Holy Land and the rest of the world.
These Christian organizations include, but are not limited to:
The World Council of Churches
The World Evangelical AllianceWorld Vision
Embrace the Middle East in the United Kingdom
Bethlehem Bible College (which hosts Christ at the Checkpoint Conferences where Israel is demonized)
Kairos Palestine (and its affiliates outside the Holy Land)
Sabeel Ecumenical Liberation Theology Center (and its affiliates outside the Holy Land)
Mainline churches in the United States
Numerous other churches
The Damour Massacre is not the only bit of Palestinian history that needs to be repented for by Palestinian elites and acknowledged by Christian allies of the PA.
Other problems include:
Ongoing incitement in Palestinian media outlets controlled by the PA and Hamas
The use of the Temple Mount (or Haram al Sharrif) as a focal point for antisemitic propaganda
Salaries being paid to terrorists who murder Israelis by the PA (the pay-to-slay program)
The Palestinian use of children as human shields during times of conflict
Praise for Palestinian terrorists who have killed Israelis by PA President Mahmoud Abbas and other high-ranking Palestinian officials
Corruption and authoritarianism on the part of Hamas and the PA
The failure of the PA to hold timely elections
The failure of Palestinian elites to acknowledge the right of the Jewish people to a sovereign state and self-determination in the Holy Land (even as they insist on this right for the Palestinian people)
The failure of Palestinian leaders to negotiate in good faith with Israel over the past two decades
For that reason, we the undersigned call on the Palestinian Authority to:
Repent for the role of its constituent parties in the Damour Massacre
Stop paying salaries to terrorists
Initiate a campaign of political and social reform
Refrain from putting children in harm’s way
Confront governmental corruption in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank
Hold elections to elect leaders empowered to negotiate honestly and in good faith with Israel, and in so doing acknowledge the right of Jews to a sovereign state and
Stop incitement on media outlets and on the Temple Mount
We also ask that Christian institutions who have advocated for the Palestinian cause insist that the Palestinian Authority admit and repent of its role in the Damour Massacre and speak publicly about these and other abuses listed above.
Initial Signatories:
Tricia Miller, Ph.D., President of National Christian Leadership Conference for Israel, President of Christians and Jews United for Israel, Christian Media Analyst, CAMERA
Jackie Goodall, Executive Director, Ireland Israel Alliance
Dexter Van Zile, board member of National Christian Leadership Conference for Israel, Shillman Research Fellow, CAMERA

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 16-17/2021

Biden Recruits Federal Muscle for Vaccine Blitz
Agence France Presse/January 16/2021
US President-elect Joe Biden announced Friday he would surge federal resources into making "thousands" of vaccine sites, while also deploying mobile clinics and expanding the public health workforce to accelerate the rollout of Covid-19 shots.
Biden has said he wants 100 million Americans to receive injections during his first 100 days in office, a drastic increase from the current pace. "This is going to be one of the most challenging operational efforts ever undertaken by our country," the 78-year-old Democrat said Friday from Wilmington, Delaware.
"But you have my word: we will manage the hell out of this operation."The afternoon address came a day after he unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus package for the battered economy that included $20 billion for vaccines and $50 billion for testing. As of Thursday morning, some 30 million doses had been sent to states with only 11.1 million injected into arms, according to official data, well behind the Trump administration's target of 20 million in December. Biden's plan would drastically increase the role of the federal government in the distribution effort, mobilizing the Federal Emergency Management Administration and reimbursing states that deploy their National Guard. Biden has also asked Congress to fund the expansion of the nation's public health workforce to 100,000 personnel, nearly triple the current number. The push comes as the incoming leader was seeking to wrest the focus from the impeachment of Donald Trump to the agenda for his first days in office. More than 388,000 people in the United States have lost their lives to the virus, a figure that is likely to have crossed 400,000 by the time Biden is sworn into office on Wednesday. The outlook is set to worsen as the B.1.1.7 variant of the coronavirus establishes itself in the US as the dominant strain in March, according to modeling by the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention. The agency said the strain, which first emerged in Britain and drove a near exponential rise in cases there, could further stretch hospitals and increase the percentage of people who need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
- Rocky start -
Experts credit the Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed (OWS) with helping to develop Covid-19 vaccines in record-breaking time, but say there was not enough planning for the "last mile," and distribution has been off to a rocky start. Major differences have arisen in the rate at which states are administering their doses, and some states were criticized for being overly prescriptive in their initial rollout, which slowed things down and even led to some shots expiring. The Trump administration has already moved to release second doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that were being held in reserve, and is recommending to states to begin vaccinating everyone over the age of 65. Biden's plan would continue that policy, while also seeking to improve coordination with states by providing "actionable data on vaccine allocation timelines and delivery." The Biden team also said they would invoke the Defense Production Act in order to boost supply, pay special attention to ethnic minority communities disproportionately impacted by the pandemic, and embark on an education campaign to build vaccine confidence. On Friday, incoming White House communications chief Jen Psaki tweeted that Bechara Choucai, chief health officer at Kaiser Permanente, would run point on vaccine rollout efforts. Former Food and Drug Administration chief David Kessler will replace Moncef Slaoui as the head of the Biden equivalent of Operation Warp Speed, which will also see a name change.

Trump to Leave Town Early Wednesday before Biden Inauguration
Agence France Presse/January 16/2021
By the time Joe Biden is sworn in as the 46th US president Wednesday, his scandal-tainted predecessor Donald Trump will already be far away, having helicoptered out of the White House a last time earlier that morning, an official said Friday. Trump will be the first president in a century and a half to snub the inauguration of his successor. An official who asked not to be identified said Trump would go to his Mar-a-Lago golf club in Florida, which is his legal residence and will become home after the White House. He is expected to be out of town well before Biden is sworn in on the steps of the Capitol building at exactly noon. After spending more than two months trying to overturn the results of the November election, pushing false conspiracy theories about fraud, Trump's presence had not been expected at the inauguration. The final straw came on January 6 when Trump gathered a huge crowd of supporters on the National Mall and once more claimed that they had to fight to stop a fraudulent election. A mob then stormed Congress, halting proceedings underway to certify Biden's win. For longer than anyone can remember, outgoing presidents have stood by their replacement on the Capitol steps, watching them take the oath -- and in so doing showing visible support for the peaceful transfer of power. Trump, who was impeached for a record second time in the wake of the Congress storming, has also broken with more discreet protocol by refusing to invite Biden and his wife Jill Biden to the White House for a traditional cup of tea in the Oval Office. On Friday, Vice President Mike Pence did make the gesture of telephoning his incoming counterpart Kamala Harris, a source said. Although this came only five days before inauguration day -- and more than two months after the election -- The New York Times said Pence offered his congratulations and belated assistance to Harris, describing the exchange as "gracious and pleasant."Recriminations over the January 6 attack continued to reverberate on Friday, however, when Trump's health secretary criticized "the actions and rhetoric following the election."
In a letter confirming he would step down when Biden takes office on January 20, Alex Azar called the violence "an assault on our democracy and on the tradition of peaceful transitions of power," urging Trump to condemn all violence and help ensure a smooth handover to Biden.
Inauguration like no other
Trump's extraordinary exit adds to the nervous atmosphere around an inauguration that was already set to be like no other. In the wake of the Congress attack, thousands of National Guard troops have taken up position around central Washington. And even before the security nightmare, organizers had been forced by Covid-19 safety measures to nix the traditional big crowds and long guest lists. For Biden, the subdued ceremonies will quickly be followed by a mammoth To Do list. His administration faces multiple crises on day one, including the stumbling national Covid vaccination project, a precarious economic recovery and Trump's looming impeachment trial in the Senate. At the same time, Biden will have to cajole the Senate into rapidly confirming his cabinet appointees, allowing him to form a government and bring stability back to the country. Incoming White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Friday that the Senate is fully capable of juggling the impeachment trial along with the urgent confirmations. "The Senate can do its constitutional duty while continuing to conduct the business of the people," she said. "Our expectation and hope and belief is that we need to walk and chew gum at the same time."

Iran’s long-range missile land close to US Navy ships in Indian Ocean
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Saturday 16 January 202
Long-range missiles from Iran landed close to a commercial ship in the Indian Ocean and 100 miles from the Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group of the US Navy, according to a Fox News report. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards test-fired ballistic missiles against targets in the Indian Ocean as they wrapped up a two-day exercise on Saturday, their official website reported. The missiles of “various classes” targeted “the enemy’s battleships and destroyed them from 1,800 kilometers (1,125 miles) away,” according to the Sepahnews website. A video released by state television showed two missiles being launched and targets being hit at sea. Iran's armed forces chief of staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri was present on the second day of the drill, alongside. Guards chief Major General Hossein Salami and aerospace commander Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh. "One of our major goals in defence policies and strategies is to be able to target enemy ships, including aircraft carriers and battleships, using long-range ballistic missiles," Salami said, quoted by Sepahnews.

Iranian Guard Holds Anti-warship Ballistic Missile Drill
Associated Press/January 16/2021
Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard conducted a drill Saturday launching anti-warship ballistic missiles at a simulated target in the Indian Ocean, state television reported, amid heightened tensions over Tehran's nuclear program and a U.S. pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic.
Footage showed two missiles smash into a target that Iranian state television described as "hypothetical hostile enemy ships" at a distance of 1,800 kilometers (1,120 miles). The report did not specify the type of missiles used. In the first phase of the drill Friday, the Guard's aerospace division launched surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and drones against "hypothetical enemy bases." Iranian state television described the drill as taking place in the country's vast central desert, the latest in a series of snap exercises called amid the escalating tensions over its nuclear program. Footage also showed four unmanned, triangle-shaped drones flying in a tight formation, smashing into targets and exploding. Tensions between Washington and Tehran have increased amid a series of incidents stemming from President Donald Trump's unilateral withdrawal from Iran's nuclear deal with world powers. Amid Trump's final days as president, Tehran has recently seized a South Korean oil tanker and begun enriching uranium closer to weapons-grade levels, while the U.S. has sent B-52 bombers, the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and a nuclear submarine into the region. In recent weeks, Iran has increased its military drills as the country tries to pressure President-elect Joe Biden over the nuclear accord, which he has said America could reenter. Iran fired cruise missiles Thursday as part of a naval drill in the Gulf of Oman, state media reported, under surveillance of what appeared to be a U.S. nuclear submarine. Iran's navy did not identify the submarine at the time, but on Saturday, a news website affiliated with state television said the vessel was American. Helicopter footage of the exercise released Thursday by Iran's navy showed what resembled an Ohio-class guided-missile submarine, the USS Georgia, which the U.S. Navy last month said had been sent to the Persian Gulf. Iran has missile capability of up to 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles), far enough to reach archenemy Israel and U.S. military bases in the region. Last January, after the U.S. killed a top Iranian general in Baghdad, Tehran retaliated by firing a barrage of ballistic missiles at two Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops, resulting in brain concussion injuries to dozens of them. Trump in 2018 unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from Iran's nuclear deal, in which Tehran had agreed to limit its uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. Trump cited Iran's ballistic missile program among other issues in withdrawing from the accord. When the U.S. then increased sanctions, Iran gradually and publicly abandoned the deal's limits on its nuclear development.

Belgian court postpones verdict in Iranian diplomat case
AFP/Saturday 16 January 2021
A Belgian court on Saturday postponed until next month the verdict in the trial of an Iranian diplomat accused of plotting to bomb an exiled opposition group’s rally in France. The case has caused tensions between Iran and several European countries, and shone an uncomfortable light on Tehran’s international activities. Assadollah Assadi, a 48-year-old diplomat formerly based in Vienna, faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted of plotting to target the rally in Villepinte, outside Paris, on June 30, 2018. The verdict was initially due on January 22 but the Antwerp court deferred it to February 4, without giving any reason for the delay. Assadi denies any involvement in the plot, which was foiled by security services. He has refused to appear at Antwerp Criminal Court, where he is on trial with three alleged accomplices, all of whom say they are innocent. Lawyers for Nasimeh Naami and Amir Saadouni – a Belgian-Iranian couple arrested in possession of a bomb in their car on their way to France – claimed the explosive was not powerful enough to kill. The lawyer for the third alleged accomplice, Mehrdad Arefani, described by the prosecution as a relative of Assadi, has denied his involvement and also pleaded for his acquittal.
Several well-known international figures – including Rudy Giuliani, personal lawyer to US President Donald Trump – were at the event in Villepinte. It was organized by the National Council of Resistance in Iran (NCRI), a group which includes the People’s Mojahedin of Iran (MEK). The MEK is considered a “terrorist group” in Iran, and has been banned there since 1981.Prosecutors are seeking an 18-year jail term for the couple found with the explosives, and 15 for Arefani. In October 2018, France accused Iran’s ministry of intelligence of being behind the plot. Tehran has strongly denied the charges.

France, Britain, Germany warn Iran against uranium metal work
Reuters, Paris/Saturday 16 January 2021
Three European powers on Saturday warned Iran against starting work on uranium metal-based fuel for a research reactor, saying it contravened the 2015 nuclear deal and stressing that it had no civilian use but serious military implications. The UN nuclear watchdog and Tehran said on Wednesday that Iran had started the work, in the latest breach of its nuclear deal with six major powers as the country presses for a lifting of US sanctions. “We strongly encourage Iran to end this activity and return to full compliance with its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Iran nuclear deal) without delay, if it is serious about preserving this agreement,” France, Britain and Germany said in a joint statement. Iran has been accelerating its breaches of the deal in the past two months. Some of those steps were triggered by a law passed in response to the killing of its top nuclear scientist in November, which Tehran has blamed on its arch-foe Israel. They are also part of a process of retaliation Tehran started in 2019 in response to US President Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the deal and his reimposition of US sanctions that the deal lifted in exchange for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities. The three powers, who remain in the deal with China and Russia, said they were “deeply concerned” and that Iran’s production of uranium metal had no civilian credibility and had potentially serious military implications. The nuclear deal imposes a 15-year ban on Iran producing or acquiring uranium metal, a sensitive material that can be used in the core of a nuclear bomb. The Iranian breaches raise pressure on US President-elect Joe Biden, who takes office next week and has pledged to return the United States to the deal if Iran first resumes full compliance. Iran wants Washington to lift sanctions first.

U.S. Carries Out Last Federal Execution of Trump Era
Agence France Presse/January 16/2021
US authorities carried out the 13th and final federal execution of Donald Trump's presidency Saturday, media reports said, less than a week before the White House is taken over by Democrat Joe Biden, who opposes the death penalty.
Dustin Higgs, a 48-year-old Black man, was executed by lethal injection at the federal penitentiary in Terre-Haute in Indiana hours after the US Supreme Court rejected a stay of execution, the New York Times reported. Higgs was pronounced dead at 1:23 am local time, the Times said, citing a statement from the Federal Bureau of Prisons. In January 1996, Higgs invited three young women to his apartment near the capital Washington, along with two of his friends. When one of the young women rebuffed his advances, he offered to drive them home but instead stopped in an isolated federal nature reserve outside the city.According to the Department of Justice, he then ordered one of his friends to shoot the three women. In 2000, he was sentenced to death for kidnapping and murder. The man who pulled the trigger was sentenced to life imprisonment with no chance of parole. "It is arbitrary and inequitable to punish Mr Higgs more severely than the actual killer," said Higgs' lawyer Shawn Nolan, in a plea for clemency addressed to President Trump at the end of January. But the Republican president, a staunch defender of the death penalty, did not follow up. On the contrary, his administration fought in court to be able to proceed with the execution before he leaves the White House next week. A court had ordered a stay of execution on the grounds that Higgs contracted Covid-19 and that, with his damaged lungs, he would likely suffer cruelly at the time of an injection of pentobarbital. The Department of Justice immediately appealed and won the case. The final bid to halt the execution then went before the Supreme Court, whose conservative majority -- firmly established by Trump appointees -- has systematically given the green light to federal executions since the summer.
'This is not justice' The Trump administration resumed federal executions in July following a 17-year hiatus, carrying them out at an unprecedented rate. Among the 12 people put to death since then was, for the first time in nearly 70 years, a woman -- Lisa Montgomery, executed Tuesday despite doubts about her mental health. At the same time, states postponed all executions to avoid spreading the virus. "This is not justice," wrote Justice Sonia Sotomayor in a dissenting note to Friday's decision by the Supreme Court. "After waiting almost two decades to resume federal executions, the Government should have proceeded with some measure of restraint to ensure it did so lawfully." "When it did not, this Court should have. It has not. Because the Court continues this pattern today, I dissent."President-elect Biden, who will be sworn in on Wednesday, has vowed to work with Congress to try to abolish the death penalty at the federal level. Democratic lawmakers on Monday introduced a bill to that effect and since their party has regained control of the Senate, it stands a chance of being adopted.

U.S. Calls Bahrain, UAE 'Major Security Partners'
Associated Press/January 16/2021
The United States called Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates "major security partners" early Saturday, a previously unheard of designation for the two countries home to major American military operations. A White House statement tied the designation to Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates normalizing ties to Israel, saying it "reflects their extraordinary courage, determination and leadership." It also noted the two countries long have taken part in U.S. military exercises. It's unclear what the designation means for Bahrain, an island kingdom off Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf, and the UAE, a federation of seven sheikhdoms home to Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Bahrain is home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, while the UAE's Jebel Ali port is the busiest port of call for American warships outside of the U.S. Bahrain hosts some 5,000 American troops, while the UAE hosts 3,500, many at Al-Dhafra Air Base. Already, the U.S. uses the designation of "major non-NATO ally" to describe its relationship with Kuwait, which hosts the forward command of U.S. Army Central. That designation grants a country special financial and military considerations for nations not part of NATO. Bahrain also is a non-NATO ally. The U.S. military's Central Command and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The 5th Fleet referred queries to the State Department, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The White House designation comes in the final days of President Donald Trump's administration. Trump forged close ties to Gulf Arab countries during his time in office in part over his hard-line stance on Iran. That's sparked a series of escalating incidents between the countries after Trump unilaterally withdrew from Iran's nuclear deal with world powers. It also comes after Bahrain and the UAE joined Egypt and Saudi Arabia in beginning to resolve a yearslong boycott of Qatar, another Gulf Arab nation home to Al-Udeid Air Base that hosts Central Command's forward operating base. That boycott began in the early days of Trump's time in office after he visited Saudi Arabia on his first foreign trip.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 16-17/202

Will Israel lose its freedom to operate against Iran? - opinion

Ruthie Blum/Jerusalem Post/January 16/2021
Speculation about the extent to which the incoming American administration will appease Iran has been rampant. But US President-elect Joe Biden’s picks for relevant top positions don’t seem to leave much room for conjecture.
Let’s start with William Burns, Biden’s nomination for CIA director. Burns currently serves as president of the left-wing foreign-policy think tank the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, one of whose donors is the Open Society Foundations network, established by George Soros.
Burns has decades of experience as a career diplomat under both Democratic and Republican administrations. Contrary to false hopes, however, this is not a good sign. Burns is a longtime associate of Biden’s. The two have worked closely together, most recently when the latter was vice president and the former was deputy secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, during the administration of former US president Barack Obama.
The most disturbing thing about Burns, whose posts have included ambassadorships to Russia and Jordan, is his key role in covert talks with the regime in Tehran in 2013. These led to the 2015 signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the 5+1 countries: the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia and China plus Germany. By that time Burns had retired, but his imprint lived on in the disastrous nuclear deal.
In this context, Biden’s statement about Burns – “[He] shares my profound belief that intelligence must be apolitical” – is amusing, if not downright disdain-inducing. Equally ridiculous, but cause for greater concern, is Burns’s current faith in the JCPOA from which outgoing US President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018. Even worse is his take on the Trump administration’s policy of “snapping back” and increasing economic sanctions against the ayatollah-led regime in Tehran. He opposes it, of course.
In an August 29 opinion piece in The Atlantic titled “‘America First’ Enters its Most Combustible Moment,” Burns spelled out his objections.
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“Any leverage against Iran produced by the UAE-Israel agreement [the Abraham Accords between the United Arab Emirates and the Jewish state that subsequently were signed on September 15 at the White House] is already being swallowed up in the serial diplomatic malpractice of the administration’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign – aimed more at toppling the Iranian regime than at changing its behavior,” he wrote. “Doubling down on failed policy is not a smart diplomatic prescription... but the Trump administration is not likely to see the light. Instead, it will continue to pretend that the United States can participate in only the punitive parts of the Iran nuclear deal... [a strategy that it] tried – and spectacularly failed at.”
Nothing could be further from the truth. Trump’s “maximum-pressure campaign” is anything but “diplomatic malpractice.”
On the contrary, putting a financial squeeze on the regime, while enabling Israel to operate (allegedly) against Iranian targets not only in Syria but within the Islamic Republic’s borders, is exactly the right move when dealing with Islamist leaders engaged in a holy war for regional and global hegemony.
THE SUPPLICATORY language of Western think tanks, particularly those with the word “peace” in their names, does nothing but encourage America’s enemies to step up the pace of their plans to subjugate the world through violent means. Indeed, since the November 3 US presidential election, the Iranian regime has been boasting about its enhancement of uranium enrichment and threatening revenge for the January 3, 2020, assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) commander Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike in Iraq.
It’s also been warning of a serious response to the killing, less than two months ago, of chief Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, whose death has been widely attributed to Israel.
Meanwhile, as Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vows to deal a mighty blow for both of the above, the Iranian people are growing increasingly enraged – and thus emboldened to be open about their dissatisfaction – with Khamenei and his puppets. Impoverished by the powers-that-be in Tehran who invest in their nuclear program and terrorist proxies, the starving public feels that it has nothing left to lose by displaying its displeasure.
One stunning example was an Israeli flag draped on a bridge over a busy thoroughfare in the Iranian capital last month, with an added banner reading: “Thank you, Mossad” – in English. The significance of this open expression of gratitude to the Jewish state for the taking out of Fakhrizadeh cannot be overstated.
Nor can the fact that an American official told the Associated Press on Wednesday that the US had provided Israel with the intelligence for Tuesday night’s airstrikes in Syria, which hit warehouses storing Iranian weapons and components for Tehran’s nuclear program. According to the official, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed the issue with Mossad chief Yossi Cohen when the two met in Washington DC on Monday.
It is highly doubtful that Israel will enjoy such a level of diplomatic and military coordination with the United States after Biden’s inauguration on January 20. Indeed, Burns isn’t the only one of the president-elect’s nominees afflicted with nuclear-deal nostalgia – or the memory of Obama’s belief in keeping “daylight” between Washington and Jerusalem.
Antony Blinken, for instance – who, pending congressional confirmation, will replace Pompeo – is another JCPOA enthusiast. Blinken served under Obama, first as deputy national security advisor and then as deputy secretary of state. Like Burns, he was instrumental in formulating and promoting the deal. He also wants to lift sanctions against Tehran as one of those “goodwill gestures” that American multilateralists so love extending to evil regimes.
He was clear about this in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA. In a thread of tweets on May 9, 2018, Blinken wrote, “By blowing up the Iran nuclear deal, President Trump puts us on a collision course with Iran and our closest allies. It gives Iranian hardliners the excuse to speed again toward the bomb without a united international coalition to oppose them or inspectors to expose them. Or if Iran and Europe stick with the deal, it forces us to sanction the latter to stop them from doing business with the former. Either way we lose.”
AS IF THIS weren’t an illustration of the degree to which Democrats misunderstand – or are willfully blind to – the mindset of the Iranian mullahs, Blinken goes on to make a ridiculous assertion. The cancellation of the JCPOA, he tweeted, “makes getting to yes with North Korea that much more challenging. Why would Kim Jong Un believe any commitments... Trump makes when he arbitrarily tears up an agreement with which the other party is complying? And... Trump’s attacks on the substance of the Iran deal constitute self-imposed pressure to get a stronger outcome with North Korea. Will... Trump get Pyongyang to dismantle the vast bulk of its nuclear enterprise up front, as Obama did with Iran? Will he be able to impose the most intrusive inspections regime ever, again as Obama did with Iran? Not likely.”
In the first place, Trump didn’t “arbitrarily” rip up the deal; he did so as a result of Iranian violations, aggression and a refusal to allow inspections of the nuclear sites. The idea that the “other party” was complying with the JCPOA is laughable, as the more than 110,000 documents retrieved by the Mossad from a warehouse in Tehran revealed. It is likely – as Blinken should know – that Trump made the final decision to exit the deal after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showed him the contents of the trove.
Furthermore, North Korea did not “dismantle the bulk of its nuclear enterprise” when Obama was in the Oval Office. And Kim Jong Un is buoyed by Biden’s election, since it was Trump with whom negotiations for “denuclearization” broke down. With all his protestations of friendship with the dictator in Pyongyang, Trump didn’t concede. Kim expects a different attitude from the next administration.
In preparation for what is a happy turn of events for him, Kim has been rattling his nuclear sabers while calling America a “war monster” and his country’s “worst enemy.” He, like Iran’s leaders, knows that this is the way to get Biden’s team on bended knee – a pose that they’ve been practicing and perfecting for the past four years.
Israel needs to prepare for this new reality in which its ability to combat Iranian forces and proxy groups is concerned. The Democrats in the White House, State Department and Capitol building are lying in wait to lead the world, as Obama proudly did, “from behind.”

Israel, Iran fight for influence over Biden administration
Yaakov Katz/Jerusalem Post/January 16/2021
Café Milano, the upscale Italian restaurant in the Georgetown neighborhood of Washington, was the scene of an important dinner on Monday night: Mossad chief Yossi Cohen sat down to eat with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and the two were spotted by journalists.
Cohen is a frequent visitor to DC. Meeting Pompeo – who for the first 15 months of the Trump administration served as CIA director – is not that unusual. What was unusual was the timing.
On Tuesday, the morning after the two had dinner, Pompeo gave a speech at the National Press Club in Washington, laying out a new indictment against Iran that he claimed was the new home base for al-Qaeda. “They are partners in terrorism, partners in hate,” Pompeo said. “This axis poses a grave threat to the security of nations and to the American homeland itself.”
That night, Israeli aircraft allegedly attacked Iranian warehouses in northeast Syria, near the border with Iraq. According to reports, nearly 60 people were killed, likely members of pro-Iranian militias.
Did Pompeo and Cohen discuss the planned airstrike at their dinner? We don’t know for sure, but the timing of their meeting and the subsequent airstrike definitely seems like something the two would have discussed, and indeed, one report cited a senior US intelligence official saying the airstrikes in eastern Syria were carried out with intelligence provided by the US.
The location of the airstrikes contributes to that theory. Al Bukamal is an area about 10 km from the border with Iraq, where America still retains a presence. Israeli activity near the border would need to be coordinated with the US.
The Pompeo declaration and the alleged Israeli attack come amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, as well as speculation and chatter that President Donald Trump, in his final days in office, might decide to act against Iran and its nuclear program. While the prospect seems extremely unlikely given the five days left to Inauguration Day, very little can be assumed about this president and his administration.
Mixed in with the recent flyovers of the Persian Gulf by strategic US B-52 bombers, the presence in the area of the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier, a series of visits to Israel by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, Iran’s decision to up its enrichment of uranium, and the general heightened state of alert on the one-year anniversary this month of the American assassination of Qasem Soleimani – there is reason to think that something might be brewing.
In Israel, there is skepticism that anything will happen by Wednesday, although a miscalculation – possibly along the northern border or in the aftermath of a bombing in Syria – is always possible. A lot will depend on Iran and what it wants. IDF intelligence does indicate an Iranian desire to retaliate for the killing of both Soleimani and more recently the assassination of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. At the same time, a conflict initiated by Iran would not be looked at kindly in Washington, even if the new administration leans more favorably toward Tehran. That is a reason to hold off on taking action, especially in the weeks ahead.
WHILE THERE were some who read Pompeo’s speech on the al-Qaeda–Iran connection as an attempt to create a justification for an attack – like what the Bush administration did with Iraq after 9/11 – what is more likely is that the outgoing secretary of state is trying to present a harsh indictment of Iran before leaving office, to make it more difficult for the Biden administration to simply slide back into the JCPOA. As Pompeo told The Jerusalem Post in an interview this week, we are not in 2015 anymore.
The entire dynamic is going to change by this Wednesday. While there is little room to question Biden’s bona fides when it comes to his pro-Israel credentials, he is nevertheless bringing together the old band that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clashed with under Barack Obama: Biden is surrounding himself with the exact team that crafted the 2015 nuclear deal and still believe in it.
John Kerry, Jake Sullivan, William Burns, Samantha Power, and others will soon be sitting as principals on the National Security Council, and all will be highly influential in the direction the new president decides to take. This is one of the reasons Cohen is remaining in office for another six months. Though his term was originally supposed to end this month and the prime minister has already selected his successor, Cohen will remain in office to try to help Israel align smoothly with the new administration.
Cohen was Netanyahu’s national security adviser between 2013 and 2016 when he worked closely with Susan Rice - who is also returning to the White House albeit in a domestic role – as well as with Sullivan and Kerry. While they are unlikely to see eye-to-eye on matters like Iran, Jerusalem believes there is a benefit in having a familiar face reach out, at least in the beginning.
IRAN’S RECENT decision to up its enrichment of uranium to 20% is looked at in Israel as an Iranian attempt to move the goalpost and gain ground now that it can then cede in new talks with the Biden administration, and in this way not lose what is important to Tehran: its infrastructure and key strategic assets. In other words, it will “surrender” the increase in enrichment, but hold on to what it really wants.
Iran’s continued advancement creates a sense of urgency that plays into Iran’s interests. The ayatollahs want to see the economic sanctions lifted, and want Biden to open a dialogue as quickly as possible. Announcements of increased uranium enrichment and new IAEA reports of additional Iranian violations help transmit that sense of urgency.
Netanyahu is also making his own contribution with regular threats against Iran, including a headline in Yisrael Hayom on Thursday that the IDF has started drafting operational plans against the Islamic Republic. While the story is not new – Israel has had operational plans to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities for over a decade, at least – the story did make two contributions: it added pressure to the incoming administration, while at the same time scaring Israeli voters who are heading to the polls in 68 days.
Israel understands that the US relationship is going to change. It knows that what took place under Trump will no longer be the same. Nevertheless, it is trying to influence the process now to get Biden, Blinken and Sullivan to take Israel’s security needs into account.
This is a departure from 2015, when Netanyahu decided to fight the deal that Obama was forging. This time, at least for now, it seems that he wants to first try and work with the new administration before entering on a collision course, even if a fight is so tempting politically since a clash with an administration that can be portrayed as being tough against Israel could help him win votes.
This is what makes this situation so complicated and risky. Like everything else over the last two years including now, what Israel does needs to be viewed – sadly – through a political prism.
Netanyahu’s advisers know that when the public feels that Israel is threatened, people tend to rally behind the familiar candidate who gives off a feeling of security. Is that enough of an incentive to pick a fight with the new administration over Iran, or even settlement construction? We have to hope not.
This is where Israel’s alleged airstrike in Syria fits in. According to reports, Israel has attacked Syria at least four times in the last three weeks, a definite uptick. While on one hand this is a continuation of Israel’s ongoing effort to prevent Iranian entrenchment in Syria that we have seen over the last few years, it is also a signal to the Biden administration that this is how Israel works today – and don’t get any ideas in your head to try to get Israel to stop.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi made that clear during his talks with Milley last month. Israel, the IDF chief said, will keep attacking Iran in Syria, and will not stop until Iran is out of the country.
In other words, just like the Iranians are setting new goalposts ahead of their engagement with Biden, Israel is doing likewise. How Biden maneuvers it is what everyone is waiting to see.

US Media: 'Telling China's Story Well'
Judith Bergman/ Gatestone Institute/January 16/2021
"If foreign audiences know that a piece of information comes from an official Chinese media source, they are likely to interpret it as 'propaganda' rather than 'news,'" wrote China expert Anne-Marie Brady in 2015...
Fortunately for the CCP, China could rely on large segments of mainstream US media to help it....
The CCP evidently knew the West well enough to calculate that framing the debate [on the coronavirus] in terms of racism would be a highly successful strategy that would play into the divisive issue of identity politics in the US and Europe.
The CCP could not have done it, however, without the media's lack of critical judgment of China's behavior, as well as the media's utter lack of interest in the CCP's quest for global domination and, according to FBI Director Christopher Wray, its willingness to achieve it "by any means necessary."
One of the foremost tasks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) under Xi Jinping is, at his directive, to "tell stories about China well and spread China's voice well; enable the world to see a multidimensional and colorful China; present China as a builder of world peace, a contributor to global development, and an upholder of international order".
When the coronavirus pandemic broke out in December 2019 in Wuhan and the Chinese authorities allowed it to spread to the rest of the world, "telling China's story well" suddenly became an acute concern. It was necessary to save the regime's face, deflect blame and seek to portray China as heroically battling the pandemic, instead of the reality of having caused it. China went into an even more energetic propaganda mode than usual, seeking to control the narrative about the virus at every turn.
One efficient way to deflect blame is to change the topic, blame someone else, or preferably both. That is what China set out to do in multiple ways with a large-scale disinformation and propaganda effort. The CCP, however, could not rely on Chinese state media alone to do the job. It needed international cooperation. "If foreign audiences know that a piece of information comes from an official Chinese media source, they are likely to interpret it as 'propaganda' rather than 'news,'" wrote China expert Anne-Marie Brady in 2015.
Chairman Mao Zedong's strategy of "making the foreign serve China" remains an important tool in the CCP's propaganda toolbox. Fortunately for the CCP, China could rely on large segments of mainstream US media to help it with at least one central element of its multifaceted propaganda effort that has not received much attention thus far: Changing public discourse about China's role in the spread of the virus to one of Westerners "fueling racism" against Asians because of the virus.
Starting in early February, Chinese state media published a barrage of articles seeking to deflect public discourse from focusing on what China had done to make sure that the virus would not spread inside China but would be exported to the rest of the world. China's state media began by pushing a narrative of Westerners exploiting the coronavirus to fuel racism. It helped, of course, that this was the kind of narrative that many naïve Westerners were only too willing to help disseminate, perhaps unaware that they were doing Communist China's bidding.
Global Times, a mouthpiece for the CCP, started the propaganda campaign on January 31, 2020 with an article, "Racism shows ugly side as China fights coronavirus" -- nearly two months before U.S. President Donald J. Trump, in a March 17 tweet, called the disease the "Chinese virus". The piece accused the West of engaging in "'yellow peril' mythology" and went on to portray China as heroically battling the disease, while the Western media was supposedly caught up in racist "hysteria" and "racialization" of the pandemic.
Global Times followed up on February 2 with "Virus unleashes racism in Western societies", which accused Western media's coverage of the virus being made in China as racist:
"Amid a crucial period of fighting the novel coronavirus, some Western media outlets -- with a deep-rooted racist mind-set -- have lost their objectivity and rationality, issuing biased reports that would create panic among people and that may thus trigger more serious social problems".
The Xinhua News Agency, the official state-run press agency of China, followed up with a piece on February 7, "Racism worse enemy than epidemic" and another on February 11, "Racism a disease more difficult to eradicate" and yet another the next day, "Western media should quit racist reporting as China fights epidemic".
China could rely on two factors in distributing this narrative of the "virus fueling racism" in the US. First, there is the assured traction that the mere mention of racism immediately gets in the US for multiple reasons, chief among them the primacy of identity politics in public discourse. Second, the media conglomerates that own the major television networks in the US are deeply involved in business dealings with China and are therefore loathe to upset Beijing in any way that might jeopardize their access to the Chinese market of 1.4 billion potential customers.
The willingness of the media conglomerates to kowtow to the CCP has been abundantly demonstrated in the past decades by the Hollywood studios that these media conglomerates also own. The kowtowing of the studios comes in various forms of submission to CCP censorship and includes co-productions and partnerships with Chinese state-operated enterprises, such as that of Walt Disney Studios and Shanghai Disneyland Resort, which is majority-owned by Shanghai Shendi Group, a conglomerate of three companies owned by Shanghai's government.
According to an August 2020 report, Made in Hollywood, Censored by Beijing, by American PEN:
"The Chinese Communist Party... holds major sway over whether a Hollywood movie will be profitable or not—and studio executives know it. The result is a system in which Beijing bureaucrats can demand changes to Hollywood movies—or expect Hollywood insiders to anticipate and make these changes, unprompted—without any significant hue or cry over such censorship,"
Here is an extremely brief overview of some of the television networks owned by the media conglomerates:
Warner Media, which owns the Warner Bros film studios, owns CNN worldwide in addition to a host of entertainment and sports networks.
NBC Universal, which owns Universal Studios, owns a host of TV channels, among them NBC, CNBC, and MSNBC.
ViacomCBS, which owns Paramount pictures, owns the CBS TV network, including CBS News, CBS Sports, Comedy Central and MTV.
The Walt Disney Company, which owns Walt Disney Pictures, 20th Century Studios, Searchlight Pictures, Marvel and Lucas Film, owns the ABC news channel in addition to a host of entertainment channels.
Several of those television networks distributed China's propaganda message about Westerners fueling racism so well that Global Times put together a video highlighting just how well they had done.
In a tweet on March 23, just six days after Trump called the virus "the Chinese virus" for the first time, Global Times played a video with clips from American television networks accusing Donald Trump of racism.
The first clip was of ABC White House reporter Cecilia Vega, who asked Trump on March 18, "Why do you keep calling this the Chinese virus? Why do you keep doing this, a lot of people say it is racist?"
"Because," Trump replied, "it comes from China. It is not racist at all".
Next up on the Global Times video was a clip of Richard Engel, chief foreign correspondent of NBC news, who said in a similar vein:
"It is easy to scapegoat people and this is what has always happened when there have been pandemics... This is a virus that came from the territory of China, but came from bats. This is a bat virus, not a China virus".
NBC news also ran a lengthy article about the exchange between Vega and Trump, in which NBC never once addressed China's responsibility for the spread of the virus, and instead quoted multiple sources saying that Trump was fueling racism.
The Global Times video also contained a clip with CNN anchor Chris Cuomo saying:
"The word coronavirus crossed out and changed to Chinese -- who does that help? We don't need an enemy. We have one: The virus... This isn't about China. It is about us".
The clips played by the Global Times provided textbook examples of American media hard at work, wittingly or not, helping the CCP to shape public opinion in the US. The Global Times video amplified the CCP message even further with quotes from Hillary Clinton, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and celebrities, all parroting the CCP narrative.
The CCP's use of the racism argument as an early element of its coronavirus propaganda campaign came to fashion public discourse about the virus significantly in the US, Europe and beyond. The CCP evidently knew the West well enough to calculate that framing the debate in terms of racism would be a highly successful strategy that would play into the divisive issue of identity politics in the US and Europe.
The CCP could not have done it, however, without the media's lack of critical judgment of China's behavior, as well as the media's utter lack of interest in the CCP's quest for global domination and, according to FBI Director Christopher Wray, its willingness to achieve it "by any means necessary."
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Biden Should Build on the Abraham Accords, Not Roll Them Back
Jay Solomon/The Washington Institute & Newsweek website/January 16/2021
Party leaders are providing constructive input, but the administration should stop short of any measures that risk sabotaging this moment of historic progress in Arab-Israel relations.
President-elect Joe Biden has agreed with few of President Donald Trump’s foreign policy initiatives over the past four years, save for maybe one: The Abraham Accords, the U.S.-brokered peace agreements between Israel and a slew of Arab and Muslim-majority states that have flowered in recent months. Biden has publicly blessed them.
To build on this seismic shift in the Middle East’s politics, though, Biden will need to challenge the progressive wing of his Democratic Party that’s both critical of the Accords and seeks to push Washington away from its traditional regional allies, in particular, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel. In the wake of this month’s attack on the U.S. Capitol, anything associated with the Trump administration runs the risk of being tainted.
Leading Democratic voices, both in Congress and the foreign policy establishment, argue the Abraham Accords risk entrenching non-democratic monarchs and strongmen in the region, while further militarizing the Persian Gulf through arms sales. They also say the normalization deals will reduce pressure on Israel to make the territorial concessions needed to forge an independent Palestinian state, long a top U.S. foreign policy objective.
Some Democratic lawmakers, eyeing their control of the White House and Senate in January, are pressing Congress to challenge, if not roll back, the terms of the Abraham Accords. These include the arms deals to the UAE and Bahrain, and the financial aid package promised to Sudan.
“What we risk doing here is fueling an arms race,” Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut said in December. “Today we may be selling the F-35s and the MQ-9s to the UAE. But the Saudis are going to want it, the Qataris have already requested it, and it just fuels Iran’s interest in continuing to build up its own military programming.”
Biden shouldn’t discard the constructive input from leaders in his party. But he must use it to build on the Abraham Accords, not roll them back.
The Middle East is moving in directions Washington can shape, but not totally control. The next U.S. administration should use this historic convergence of interests between Israel and the Arab-majority states to help place the region on a much stronger footing and greatly enhance the U.S.’ economic and security interests for the long term.
Economic Integration: A key feature of the Abraham Accords is their focus on integrating Israel into the economies of the broader Middle East, many of which have stagnated due to sectarian conflict and political instability. Israel’s high-tech industry is perfectly positioned to partner with the oil-rich Gulf states to breed investments in clean energy, irrigation and information technologies. This collaboration is designed to help the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan wean off their dependence on fossil fuels, and also promote investments in the region’s less resource-rich countries.
The Biden administration can play a direct role in this economic awakening going forward. The Abraham Accords established a U.S.-backed fund that initially allocates $3 billion for the financing of regional business projects. This investment can grow over the next four years, and include the participation of American companies, universities and non-governmental organizations.
Middle East Peace: Israel, as part of its normalization agreement with the UAE in September, agreed to suspend its plans to annex parts of the West Bank last year. Many progressive Democrats argued the Abraham Accords rewarded Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for simply pulling back from a step that would have violated international law. The Biden administration can use Israel’s reversal on annexation to try and breathe life back into the Mideast peace process.
The blooming of economic ties between Israel and leading Arab-majority states can show to the Palestinian leadership the benefits of ending conflict and joining regional economic integration. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, which hasn’t normalized relations with Israel, can use the prospect of this step as leverage to press Israel into moving forward with the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Israel’s leadership knows that its full acceptance into the Middle East can only happen once it formally forges diplomatic ties with Riyadh.
Iran: A key issue driving the Abraham Accords has been Israel and the Arab-majority states’ shared fears of Iran and its regional activities. The agreements formalize what has been years of covert security and intelligence cooperation between the Jewish state and these countries. Israeli drones, surveillance equipment and other high-tech gear are in high demand in Middle Eastern capitals.
President-elect Biden has pledged to return the U.S. to the Obama administration’s nuclear agreement with Iran, and build out broader pacts to constrain Tehran’s missile program and support for Mideast militias and terrorist groups. He should use the growing alliance between Israel and Arab-majority states as leverage to increase pressure on Tehran and highlight its regional isolation. This emerging economic and security bloc could serve as a symbol of the region’s potential if militancy and extremism are replaced by economic integration and dynamism. This new partnership should also play a role in helping the Biden administration shape these proposed new agreements with Iran.
Successive U.S. administrations, for more than 70 years and from both parties, have made the integration of Israel into the broader Middle East a cornerstone of American foreign policy. Now that it’s happening, Washington shouldn’t be a barrier to its expansion, but seek to underpin it. President-elect Biden has a unique position to shape this new Middle East in a way that best advances U.S. interests.
*Jay Solomon is an adjunct fellow with The Washington Institute and a senior director at APCO Worldwide. This article was originally published on the Newsweek website.

Deciphering Iran’s Latest Nuclear Messaging
Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/January 16/2021
Tehran will continue maneuvering to secure a favorable new nuclear deal with the Biden administration, likely using a combination of bluffs and escalation.
In explaining its intention to reverse the Trump administration’s 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the incoming Biden team has focused on constraining various technical aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, particularly the number and type of high-speed centrifuges it uses to separate the crucial U-235 isotope from natural uranium. In response, Tehran has announced or threatened new nuclear steps in an apparent bid to improve its bargaining position, from resuming “20% enrichment” at its Fordow plant to expelling UN inspectors if sanctions are not lifted.
This could be a dangerous diplomatic game, however. If Iranian officials feel compelled to depict the program as being more formidable than it really is, they risk inviting international intervention, perhaps military action. Alternatively, greater foreign scrutiny could wind up revealing key technical limitations, potentially harming the program’s value to the regime’s deterrent efforts abroad and political legitimacy at home.
To avoid prematurely showing its hand or folding altogether, Iran often cloaks its nuclear pronouncements in terms that are difficult to comprehend without a scientific background. Thus, it is important to review the key nuclear issues currently under debate by recasting them in layperson’s language.
Centrifuges
Similar to a top-loading washing machine on spin cycle, a centrifuge is intended to separate a gaseous form of uranium into two substances: the dominant U-238 isotope and the rarer but more important isotope U-235. Success depends on the centrifuge being well-balanced and made of a very strong material that does not distort under the stress of acceleration to high speeds.
A centrifuge’s efficiency—its ability to separate U-235—is proportional to its height and spin speed. The taller and faster a centrifuge is, the quicker and better its accumulation of U-235. At low levels of enrichment, U-235 can be used as reactor fuel, but when highly enriched, it can form the explosive core of an atomic bomb.
Iran acquired this enrichment technology from Pakistan, which developed the P1 and P2 centrifuge models from European designs. In Iran, the P1 is known as the IR-1. An Iranian adaptation of the P2, known as the IR-2m, was developed as well and should have been converted to nonnuclear purposes under the JCPOA. Tehran is now claiming that it will bring the IR-2m back into nuclear service, but few if any of these machines are believed to be workable due to lack of use, and the plant used to assemble them was severely damaged by an explosion in July 2020. Moreover, while the IR-2m and the related IR-4 and IR-6 are often called “advanced,” their technology dates back to the 1970s.
Enrichment
For every 1,000 atoms of natural uranium, only seven are U-235, so natural uranium is said to be 0.7% enriched. When the level of enrichment (sometimes described in the media as “purification”) is 3.67%—the agreed maximum in the JCPOA—the ratio of atoms has changed from 993:7 to 183:7. This shift in ratios shows that despite the seemingly small jump in percentages, most of the work of separation has been done once 3.67% is reached.
The ratio for 20% enrichment is even starker at 28:7—hence the concern about Iran’s recent decision to enrich to this level. Theoretically, uranium enriched to 20% could be used to cause a nuclear explosion, though 90% (1:7) is the usual design requirement for a nuclear weapon.
Open imageicon
Cascades
Another key to uranium enrichment is the arrangement of piping that allows uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas to travel through the centrifuges again and again, each time shedding U-238 atoms. Adapting a design obtained from Pakistan, the Iranian enrichment process takes place in stages: from 0.7% to 3.5%, then 3.5% to 20%. If Iran wanted to obtain bomb-grade material, it would need two extra stages: 20% to 60%, and 60% to 90%. On paper, reaching that target would require 38 cascades containing a total of 5,832 centrifuges—about the same number Iran was limited to under the JCPOA. In practice, however, IR-1 centrifuges cannot be used to complete such a cascade arrangement due to UF6 stability problems that prevent them from enriching to the highest levels.
Open imageiconUranium enrichment centrifuge cascade
This diagram shows how UF6 gas passes through four processes during enrichment: (1) through two groups of 12 cascades of centrifuges, each having 164 machines, taking the enrichment level to 3.5%; (2) through 8 cascades with 164 machines each to increase the level from 3.5% to 20%; (3) through 4 cascades of 114 machines each to increase from 20% to 60%; (4) through 2 cascades of 64 machines each to increase from 60% to 90%. At each stage, gas depleted of U-235 is passed back to the previous stage or out of the system completely, with the process becoming relatively easier each time.
Enrichment is usually a slow process. Pakistan’s nuclear program got a big head start in 1981 when China gifted it with two bombs’ worth of 93% high-enriched uranium (HEU) and weapon design plans. By the late 1990s, Pakistan’s two enrichment plants at Kahuta—each equipped with 5,500 P2 centrifuges—were producing enough HEU for one nuclear device every two months.
Breakout Time
This term describes the amount of time needed to acquire enough HEU for one nuclear weapon. Although Iran began acquiring centrifuges in the 1990s, debate persists over whether it ever completed work on a weapon design, with some suggesting that it is still at least two years away from developing such expertise or a test device. For comparison’s sake, Pakistan carried out a successful “cold test” (i.e., using nonnuclear material) of its first constructed weapon in October 1984, three years after receiving design plans from China.
Calculating the time to accumulate the amount of 90% HEU needed for one weapon (known as a “significant quantity”) is relatively easy when one has information about the efficiency of a program’s centrifuges. The productivity of a centrifuge is measured in separative work units (SWU, pronounced “swoo”), or the amount of U-235 that a single centrifuge can yield in one year, measured in kilograms.
According to Pakistani nuclear scientist A. Q. Khan, a P1 or IR-1 type is capable of 3 SWU—though as already mentioned, the IR-1 cannot be used for higher levels of enrichment. Khan has also claimed that a P2 can reach nearly 8 SWU. To produce a “critical mass’ of U-235—that is, the amount needed for a single weapon, around 15 kg—a program would need to reach an output of 3,500 SWU, or about four months of spinning in a centrifuge plant with at least 5,000 machines capable of high enrichment. This time could be reduced if low-enriched material is used as feedstock.
The IAEA’S Role
As with other member states, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency monitor Iran to make sure it is adhering to its obligations under the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), as well as the JCPOA in Tehran’s case. They do so using fixed cameras and in-person visits to acknowledged facilities. If Iran were to stop these visits or restrict them for a substantial length of time, it would prompt a crisis with the United States, Europe, Israel, and Washington’s Arab allies. On January 11, IAEA director-general Rafael Grossi ambiguously stated that there were only weeks left to revive diplomacy with Iran. Two days later, the agency revealed that Iran was developing the capability to produce uranium metal, a skill needed for a variety of purposes, including construction of a nuclear bomb core.
Even without the IAEA, Washington would not necessarily be blind to what is happening. Intelligence surveillance of Iran’s nuclear program and decisionmaking is almost certainly extensive. And despite placing its centrifuge plants in well-defended facilities at Natanz and inside Fordow mountain, the nuclear program is still vulnerable to military attack.
To be sure, Iran may have established other enrichment plants, perhaps hidden in plain sight. In the 1980s, Pakistan built a 2,000-centrifuge facility in a nondescript warehouse located at a large munitions plant outside Islamabad, as well as a smaller tunnel facility in the hills around Kahuta. (Pakistan is not a signatory to the NPT, so its enrichment facilities have never been inspected.)
Whatever the current status of Iran’s facilities, the nuclear issue is likely to be the Biden administration’s first foreign policy test. Ultimately, the United States holds the best hand, but Iran may still be able to play the game quite well even with a weak hand.
*Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute. For more on the technical issues discussed in this article, see his joint report with Olli Heinonen, Nuclear Iran: A Glossary.

Postponing Iraqi elections seen as an opportunity for Kadhimi to boost political fortunes
Hammam Latif/ The Arab Weekly/January 16/2021
BAGHDAD--Iraq is edging close to postponing the general elections that were scheduled to take place next June in light of the inability of the competent authority to secure the requirements for polling at the appointed date.
Informed sources suggest that a consensus is likely to be reached on the postponement decision provided that the new date is next October.
Analysts say that this postponement provides Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi with the opportunity to build alliances that enable him to remain on the political forefront considering the decline of the parties representing political Islam.
On Thursday, Kadhimi and the President of the Republic, Barham Salih, Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi, and the Head of the Judicial Authority Faiq Zaidan held a meeting in Baghdad. During the meeting, the chairperson and members of the board of commissioners of the Independent High Electoral Commission, and the Special Representative of the Secretary-General of the United Nations Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, were invited to a discussion of the upcoming early elections. The electoral commission presented “the schedule of technical operations and timeline for conducting early elections.”
It also presented an outline of its “commitment to conducting transparent and fair elections, intensifying its efforts to complete the biometric registration of all voters and coordinating efforts aimed at ensuring effective international monitoring of the vote.”It stated that it “will give sufficient time for candidates, political alliances, new political forces and youth to complete the legal registration procedures and submit candidate lists.” The meeting recommended providing full support to the Independent High Electoral Commission to accomplish its tasks and complete the constitutional and legal requirements for holding early elections, in particular the need for parliament to pass The Federal Court Act and implement article 64 of the constitution related to the disbanding of the house of representatives in preparation for early elections. The quorum of the federal court – which is the only body entitled to validating the election results and hearing appeals about these results – remains incomplete, due to the death of one of its members and the retirement of another. Without a federal court, the results of any general vote in Iraq will not be approved. Therefore, a priority task for the current parliament is to find a way out of the federal court problem, which requires a general political consensus.
The official statement describing the proceedings of Thursday’s meeting did not mention the first date set by the government for holding early elections, which is June 6, 2021. This was considered a clear indication of the possibility of postponement of the polling date.
Political sources familiar with the details of this meeting said that the commission informed the four presidents that it would not be able to hold elections in June, and that it needed at least three more months, after the June date, to secure voting requirements. The commission wants to complete updating the voters’ register in order to be able to count the number of Iraqis who are allowed to participate in the general polling, something it is still working on.
The sources added that the election commission’s estimate matches that of the United Nations Mission in Iraq, which will play a pivotal role backing the election process and directly supervising it. Alia Nassif, a member of the State of Law coalition, said that the new election date may be announced after a meeting held by the prime minister with a number of stakeholders in Baghdad.
Nassif added that Kadhimi may want to change the date of the elections, which he had pledged to hold June of this year, but she did not mention the new date.
Sources following the electoral process say that most of the stakeholders believe that holding the polls next October will be appropriate for everyone, in terms of giving the commission the needed time to complete its preparations first, and secondly because holding the elections in a very hot month such as June may adversely affect the tournout. The Kadhimi government wants to avoid a low voter turnout, which some predict in a repeat of what happened during the last elections held in 2018, when the rate of participation did not exceed 20%, according to unofficial estimates. The competing political parties in Iraq view the upcoming elections as a test of the popular mood after the largest wave of demonstrations in the country’s history, which began in October 2019 and continued until the middle of the following year.
Observers say that postponing the election date will give the prime minister and president enough time to build alliances that will maintain their prominent role on the political scene, especially for Kadhimi, who could benefit from the public anger at the parties participating in Parliament, which bear responsibility for the failure of the post-2003 governments. Observers add that the upcoming elections in Iraq will be held under the shadow of the October demonstrations, as dozens of new and old parties are preparing to participate amid a decline in the popularity of political Islam, and a general popular leaning towards civil and secular movements.
On Friday, Iraqi activists announced the formation of a new political bloc to run in early parliamentary elections. The announcement came at a press conference held by activists in the city of Samawah, the capital of Muthanna Governorate, in the south of the country. Alaa al-Rikabi, a prominent activist in the Dhi Qar protests, said during the news conference that he would lead the new bloc, which bears the name “Imtidad Movement.”He added that the movement “will serve as the voice of popular protests and intends to run in the upcoming early parliamentary elections” . The bloc, he added, “will face the current corrupt system in the country … and will seek to obtain the parliamentary majority, otherwise it will join the opposition in the next parliament.”In this atmosphere, observers say that most political Islam parties may run in the upcoming elections as much as possible under the banner of parties with civil appearances in order to preserve their chances of winning. So far, the number of parties licensed to run in the elections has exceeded the four-hundred barrier. In the event the elections are postponed, the number of parties that will be granted permission to participate will inevitably increase.

With the US divided, corporate America spies an opportunity
Raghida Dergham/The National/January 16/ 2021
The end of the Trump presidency will not be the rebirth of the US as some like to predict or wish. America has never been more divided. After the world watched in horror as armed mobs invaded the US Capitol, no one should be in doubt about the extent of political polarisation in American society, and the huge task President-elect Joe Biden confronts in bringing people together. Politics in the US is going to turbulent for some time.
Washington will also not be helped by Big Tech and corporate America's increasing influence and interference in politics. Never before has this been truer. Increased private sector influence, in areas of government that used to only be reserved for politicians, will have consequences we cannot ignore.
The era when decision making rested solely in the hands of the leaders of the two main parties – who, behind closed doors, could make deals and decide the extent to which corporations could engage with politics – is over.
Will Biden have enough hours in the day to heal a divided America?
This is not to say that corporate America never had much of a role in American policy making. Private companies have frequently played a part in US wars overseas, if they stood to gain from conflict. The most recent example is the military-industrial complex’s role in the America's invasion of Iraq. Tech giants are also responsible for destabilising the Middle East. During the Obama era, companies like Google, Facebook and Twitter played a key role, alongside the administration itself, in enabling the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, on the back of the Arab Spring. Instability in Tunisia and Egypt, to the carnage in Libya and Syria, followed. Obama's government and tech companies then looked on as massacres unfolded.
So when these industries, corporations and financial institutions feign outrage over human rights abuses and keenness for reform, no one should be convinced. While posturing, they interfere in American politics to further their own interests. If this continues, the threat will soon spread beyond America. Recently, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has spoken of her concern about this. People should heed her words, especially those who revel in the defeat of Donald Trump, while remaining ignorant of the agendas of those in Silicon Valley and Wall Street. This is especially true for younger generations, who think they are able to stop the tech giants from imposing their vision for America, which is frequently at odds with the country's constitutional checks and balances.
America’s mega-corporations did not take long to enter the fray after Mr Biden's election. Another development in the US political landscape, is how for both the Democratic and Republican parties, protestors now have the power to shape policy, albeit often in a manner that entrenches dangerous polarisation. As a result, Republicans frequently accuse the Democrats of trying to move America to the far left. They cite the popularity of the party's socialist senator, Bernie Sanders, as evidence of this. In turn, the Democrats accuse Trump-supporters and Republicans of taking America dangerously to the right.
America’s mega-corporations did not take long to enter the fray after Mr Biden's election. Corporate America’s determination to directly fill the gaps in the incoming administration is a serious threat to the US's independence and interests.
CEOs are not elected, and Mr Biden does not seem to be willing to challenge the establishment. Therefore, there is a serious risk that social media giants could influence his programme. Big Tech has an agenda across all parts of the globe. It should not be allowed to impose it. The unelected leaders of these entities, many of whom see themselves as above the law, undermine America, its identity, its interests and its core values. The interference of Big Tech is no less serious than that of the far right, especially if it continues to fuel division and crackdown on speech which doesn't align with its views.
The claims made by some of these companies that they are champions of human rights can be quickly discredited. They do nothing to curb the presence of Iranian government accounts on their sites, even as Tehran violated the sovereignty of nations like Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Syria.
All of this will cause serious problems for US policy and interests. America today is undergoing a delicate transition, after which the new administration will have to focus on major domestic challenges, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. It risks, therefore, being distracted from these threats.
America will not heal soon. The celebrations by many at the departure of President Trump is being welcomed and celebrated for various reasons. However, the very identity of the US is at stake. It is crucial, therefore, that Americans find a way to return to the principles that made their country a standout super power.

Can Biden rebuild America’s fractured global standing?
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/January 16, 2021
The past four years have demonstrated that when the US disregards mechanisms of international justice, such mechanisms effectively cease to exist: Systematic human rights abuses have been perpetrated with impunity, predatory nations have sought to seize territories from nearby failing states, and multilateral efforts to address conflicts like Syria ran into the sand. Vladimir Putin has now followed Donald Trump in withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty, just one of a succession of accords that were supposed to make the world safer but have been consigned to the bonfire since 2016.
Meanwhile, the sitting US president has been indicted for “incitement to insurrection” against his own Congress. The Capitol riot inspired undisguised joy from states such as Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Turkey and China. Several Congressmen themselves may now face legal consequences for facilitating the riot, and many of the Republican Party’s largest corporate donors have severed ties.
While NATO allies will be relieved at America’s return to the international fold, the Trump years of unilaterally abrogating treaties, defunding and undermining international bodies, and unpredictable policy U-turns have done lasting damage to America’s international moral standing. Given the possibility that American voters could elect another such maverick in future, other Western states are developing defense and foreign policy mechanisms less reliant on the US.
The Biden presidency will prioritize the re-establishment of America’s role in the world. Biden’s incoming team, including high-caliber figures such as Antony Blinken and William Burns, are the complete opposite of Trump’s appointees — methodical, career diplomats, known to be safe and experienced pairs of hands. These officials are strong believers in America’s global leadership role, as well as the necessity of acting closely with international allies.
We are already seeing various authoritarian figures such as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rushing through a number of political changes designed to reduce likely frictions with the Biden administration, including efforts to improve relations with Israel and Europe. Biden previously characterized Erdogan as an "autocrat" who must "pay a price" for his policies, pledged to recognize the Armenian genocide, and urged support for Turkish oppositionists. It’s easy to see why Erdogan is so worried.
Regarding China, Biden’s approach isn’t likely to be more confrontational than Trump’s, but there will certainly be a more consistent emphasis on human rights, particularly regarding the Uighurs and Hong Kong. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will also be compelled to rein in human rights abuses against non-Hindu communities if he doesn’t want to find himself ostracized by the incoming US administration.
Most Americans previously took their political system for granted. When Trump came to power it was widely assumed that US democratic institutions were strong enough to restrain his worst impulses. However, these mechanisms have been tested to breaking point, with Trump’s Republican Party enablers often shamelessly facilitating his corrupt attempts to subvert the system.
The ascendancy of the Biden administration represents a new era of multilateralism, but immense efforts will be required if this is to result in improved global leadership.
We have also learned painful lessons about the destabilizing effects of overheated social media forums in a hyper-partisan environment, giving rise to a situation in which about 70 percent of Republican voters believe Trump’s lies that the election was stolen. A huge proportion of the population are living in an alternative reality, where a violent assault on the Capitol building to subvert the election results can look like patriotism. We are used to seeing presidential candidates refusing to concede or trying to falsify results in African and Asian elections, but we aren’t accustomed to witnessing this from the US.
Data from Freedom House suggests that in every year for the past decade democracy around the world has moved backwards, with growing numbers of states trending toward autocracy and declining standards of governance, coinciding with growing numbers of fragile and disintegrating states. This is likewise correlated with yawning social inequalities between increasingly impoverished populations and hyper-wealthy oligarchies who monopolize governing systems in order to perpetuate their own wealth.
In many parts of the world it is becoming the norm that whoever wins power will work to subvert institutions and the media in order to retain power indefinitely. Putin can now potentially remain in power until 2036. Constitutions are only pieces of paper, and civil society has often proved too weak to fight back.
Such is the crisis of global governance and leadership in 2021 that it’s difficult to see how the international community can stop the rot, when even the European Union has proved tragically impotent in challenging misgovernance among its own members, such as Hungary and Poland. It is certainly far easier to dismantle and throttle a governing system than it is to rebuild norms of effective governance.
The ascendancy of the Biden administration represents a new era of multilateralism, but immense efforts will be required if this is to result in improved global leadership, more resilient states, and a renaissance for international institutions. Let’s not forget that China and Russia had already turned global bodies such as the UN Security Council into meaningless talking shops long before Trump.
The world has witnessed more than enough of right-wing populism. The smooth running of Western democracy has habitually been premised on the good intentions and integrity of civil servants and political parties. This has been demonstrated to be dangerously insufficient. From Biden, the EU and elsewhere there will need to be a raft of new legislative measures to further protect governance mechanisms, irrespective of who captures the levers of government. Failure to do so will have catastrophic implications for social cohesion and world peace.

*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

How Iran serves as ‘a key geographic hub for Al-Qaeda’
Oubai Shahbandar/Arab News/January 16, 2021
WASHINGTON, DC: Mike Pompeo, the outgoing US secretary of state, made a splash last week when he unveiled new intelligence pointing to an enduring operational relationship between the regime in Iran and Al-Qaeda’s international terror network.
Although senior Al-Qaeda operatives are long known for using Iran as a transit point and shelter, what many policymakers and the general public have failed to grasp is just how vital the safe haven offered by the Islamic Republic has become to Al-Qaeda’s survival.
Iran is now officially the last government in the world that knowingly harbors and facilitates Al-Qaeda activity. Revelations concerning the full extent of this nexus come as Iran accelerates its drive towards nuclear-weapons capability with threats and warnings that are a belated wake-up call for world leaders.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s extraterritorial Quds Force has worked behind the scenes as a driver of both Tehran’s illicit nuclear program and its facilitation of the terrorist activities of senior Al-Qaeda leaders who have sought refuge in Iran.
Concurrently, the Quds Force has used the threat of Al-Qaeda as a justification for the expansion of its Shiite militia proxies in Syria and Iraq. In reality of course, key figures in Al-Qaeda’s central command have been traveling to Syria and establishing a foothold there with the connivance of their Quds Force patrons.
Anyone in search of proof need look no further than the sanctuary provided by Iran to Al-Qaeda’s chief military strategist Saif Al-Adel, who masterminded the 2003 bombings of residential compounds in Riyadh, killing 39 and injuring 160.
Al-Adel, whose real name is believed to be Mohammed Salah Al-Din Zaidan, has emerged as a key emissary for Al-Qaeda’s operations in Syria and has even traveled there from Iran. Other senior Al-Qaeda operatives who were based in Iran before traveling to Syria include Muhsin Al-Fadhli, a former leader the group’s Iran-based facilitation network, and Sanafi Al-Nasr, a senior operative who was given free rein to continue terrorist activities under the watchful eye of the Iranian government.
Against this backdrop, the Trump administration’s focus in its waning days on Iran’s emergence as a major Al-Qaeda hub is significant on several counts.
Above all, it intimates that the US and its allies can no longer turn a blind eye to the Iranian regime’s complicity in Al-Qaeda activity, which was politically inconvenient for them during efforts to establish a nuclear deal at any cost.
The offer of a $7 million reward by Pompeo for information leading to the capture or killing of Abd Al-Rahman Al-Maghrebi, the son-in-law and senior advisor to Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and commander of Al-Qaeda’s operations from Tehran, is a strong indicator of this shift.
Given that the incoming Biden administration will be composed of Obama-era officials who were involved in negotiating the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran (also known as JCPOA), a push to link sanctions on Iran to its continued support for Al-Qaeda (in addition to its stepped-up nuclear program) could offer US policymakers greater leverage.
“The relationship between Iran and Al-Qaeda has long been understated if not ignored in Washington,” Richard Goldberg, former Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Trump White House, told Arab News.
“Putting a bounty on the head of a top Al-Qaeda operative living in Iran forces the incoming Biden administration to confront Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism across the spectrum. There’s no more hiding this dangerous relationship.”
THENUMBER
$7 million
* US reward for information on ‘Iran-based Al-Qaeda leader Muhammad Abbatay, also known as Abd Al-Rahman Al-Maghrebi.’
Iran lives in hope that its strategy of denial and deceit will succeed. During negotiations with the Obama administration, Iranian officials such as Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had attempted to spin the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions as necessary Western concessions for Iran to be able to focus on the real threat of fighting extremist groups, namely Daesh and Al-Qaeda.
For similar reasons, Iran desperately tried to cover up the suspected Israeli killing of one of Al-Qaeda’s most prolific terror masterminds, Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, in August last year, when he was gunned down in the middle of Tehran.
Abdullah’s elimination came as many Al-Qaeda operatives in Iran were being given a freer hand to operate and open nodes of communication and travel for the wider terrorist network.
For Iran, the ends justify the means, despite what to the casual observer may seem like a clash of worldviews between the Shiite theocracy and the Sunni radical Al-Qaeda.
“Many people think that because Al-Qaeda’s ideology reviles Shiites that it could never cooperate with the Islamic Republic, and vice versa. But the hard men running Al-Qaeda and Iran do not simply behave according to their ideologies,” Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told Arab News.
“In terms of ideology, yes, Al-Qaeda and Iran are enemies. In terms of power and political interests, however, they are natural allies.”
Members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) march during the annual military parade marking the anniversary of the outbreak of the 1980-1988 war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. (AFP/File Photo)
The need for heightened awareness in Western capitals of Iran’s enabling of Al-Qaeda is underscored by Iran’s parallel efforts to advance its nuclear program in plain sight of the world. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) told the UN Security Council last week that Tehran has continued to "reduce its commitments" to restrictions imposed by the JCPOA.
The confidential IAEA report, obtained by CBS News, says Iran has started to manufacture equipment used to produce uranium metal at a facility in Isfahan. Uranium metal can be used to make the core of a nuclear warhead, although it is unclear yet when or if Iran might start producing the material.
Pointing out that the JCPOA “prohibits Iran from producing uranium metals for 15 years, and has additional curbs on Tehran conducting research and development on uranium metal in certain facilities,” the CBS News report quoted the IAEA report as saying that “Iran is making its departure from those commitments clear.”
According to Western intelligence agencies, recent Israeli airstrikes that targeted the IRGC’s Quds Force infrastructure in eastern Syria were intended to disrupt an overland delivery route that Iran has been using to transport smuggled components for its nuclear program.
This is an area on the Syrian-Iraqi border where Iran has developed a massive base of operations alongside thousands of trained Shiite foreign fighters under the guise of fighting extremism.
Unsurprisingly, the need for cooperation in the fight against terrorism was a core talking point pushed by Zarif before 2015 in public speeches and media appearances while attempting to convince American and European policymakers to finalize the JCPOA and subsequently lift sanctions on Iran, particularly those targeting the IRGC.
Now it seems clearer than ever that Iran was emboldened to boost Al-Qaeda’s terrorist capabilities as it benefited financially from the windfall that resulted from the sealing of the nuclear deal.
“Al-Qaeda and the Islamic Republic have a long history of working together. The Al-Qaeda leadership even lives openly in Tehran,” Alireza Nader, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told Arab News.
“Of course, Zarif and his allies are very sensitive about these ties as they might complicate their plan to ease US pressure on the regime.”
So now the question will be whether a new administration in Washington will take these lessons to heart and accept there is little strategic logic in pressuring Iran to end its nuclear aspirations without an equally aggressive push to unequivocally eliminate the Al-Qaeda leadership’s presence in the country.
As things currently stand, experts say, Iran will almost certainly use any sanctions relief under a nuclear deal redux to expand the footprint of its militias in the Middle East and to perpetuate the symbiotic relationship it has nurtured with Al-Qaeda.

Businessmen with ties to Assad linked to Beirut port blast cargo
Martin Chulov in Beirut/The Guardian/January 15/2021
Revelations about London company reinforce suspicions that Beirut, and not Mozambique, was intended destination of ammonium nitrate
The company used to ship a huge stockpile of ammonium nitrate to Beirut port, where it caused a devastating explosion last August, has been linked to three influential businessmen with ties to the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, a new investigation has found.
The revelations about Savaro Ltd – a London shelf company that was deregistered at Companies House on Tuesday – have amplified suspicions that Beirut had always been the cargo’s intended destination, and not Mozambique, its official endpoint.
They also for the first time raise the possibility that the detonation of 2,750 tonnes of nitrate in Beirut may have been a byproduct of Syrian officials’ attempts to source nitrate to use in weapons.
An investigation by the Lebanese film-maker Firas Hatoum, which aired this week on local television network Al-Jadeed, drew links between Savaro and three figures who had been central to efforts to bolster Assad since the earliest months of the Syrian war.
George Haswani, Mudalal Khuri and his brother Imad are joint Russian-Syrian citizens who have all been sanctioned by the United States for supporting the Syrian leader’s war effort. Companies linked to Haswani and Imad Khuri shared a London address with Savaro, which bought the nitrate in 2013. The official destination of the cargo was Mozambique, but it was diverted to and unloaded in Beirut, where it was stored unsafely until the catastrophic blast.
Mudalal Khuri was accused by the US Treasury of attempting to source ammonium nitrate months before the Russian freighter Rhosus docked in the Lebanese capital midway through a winding voyage from Georgia. The ship’s change of route, its opaque ownership and the mysterious provenance of the cargo’s suppliers had fuelled suspicion that Beirut had been the intended destination of a sophisticated smuggling operation from the outset.
The Savaro address – 10 Great Russell Street, London WC1B 3BQ – was also the registered address of Hesco Engineering and Construction, which was directed by Haswani, a go-to businessman for Assad who was also sanctioned by the US in 2015 for allegedly buying oil from the Islamic State (Isis) terror group on behalf of the Syrian government.
According to documents supplied by Hatoum, another of Savaro’s London addresses is linked to a second company tied to Haswani’s Hesco now defunct company, IK Petroleum, which was directed by Imad Khuri until 2016.
The apparent connections have rippled through Beirut, where the ruling class is staring down a judge-led investigation into the blast. Caretaker prime minister Hassan Diab, three former ministers and more than 30 low-level officials have so far been charged in relation to the disaster, which killed more than 200 people and devastated the city’s port-side suburbs.
The spectre of a link between the explosion and both the Syrian regime and Russia, which has heavily backed Assad on the battlefield, has been met with fury in some quarters and disdain in others. “Of course the nitrate was meant for Assad,” said Raad Ayoubi, an insurance broker. “Another question needs to be asked, though: how did it get from Beirut to Bashar?”
A second man, Hatem Mansour, was dismissive. “Who cares who blew us up? Just tell them to keep us far from this corona curse and we’ll forgive them.”
There are growing concerns that any local investigation would be stymied by domestic power bases, who all took a stake in the operations of Beirut port and a cut of its revenues. Beirut’s port has long been a microcosm of Lebanon’s political system, which runs ministries as fiefdoms, siphoning off massive revenues from state coffers and apportioning them to leaders who retained power after the country’s civil war.
Complicating any local probe is the international dimension of the cargo’s journey as well as the shadowy world of global shipping, a baffling array of shelf companies used along the way, and witnesses who are likely to remain elusive without a global effort to track them down.
Interpol this week issued red notices for three figures thought to be relevant to the probe: a Russian national, Igor Grechushkin, who is believed to be the owner of the MV Rhosus; another Russian, Borys Prokoshew, who was the ship’s captain at the time; and Jorge Moreira, who is Portuguese. He allegedly sourced the ammonium nitrate from a Georgian factory, Rustavi Azot. Why a shelf company was used to broker the deal with the Mozambique firm Fábrica de Explosivos de Mocambique is central to inquiries. The firm is linked to the Assads.
“I doubt that [Lebanon can resolve an investigation] for many reasons, looking at the way that things were handled in previous months,” said Hatoum. “And I don’t trust any foreign or international investigation either because we have had such a bad experience in the past and politics always gets in the way.”
Last week the Lebanese power broker Walid Jumblatt said: “I call for the continuation of the investigation to uncover the purpose of the nitrate. It’s important to establish whether it could be destined for the Syrian regime. It must keep going and not be waylaid.”
Additional reporting by Leena Saidi
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/15/businessmen-with-ties-to-assad-linked-to-beirut-port-blast-cargo