English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese,
Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 10/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews21/english.january10.21.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
No one can receive anything except what has been given from
heaven
“Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint
John 03/22-30: “After this Jesus and his disciples went into the Judean
countryside, and he spent some time there with them and baptized. John also was
baptizing at Aenon near Salim because water was abundant there; and people kept
coming and were being baptized John, of course, had not yet been thrown into
prison. Now a discussion about purification arose between John’s disciples and a
Jew. They came to John and said to him, ‘Rabbi, the one who was with you across
the Jordan, to whom you testified, here he is baptizing, and all are going to
him.’ John answered, ‘No one can receive anything except what has been given
from heaven. You yourselves are my witnesses that I said, “I am not the Messiah,
but I have been sent ahead of him.” He who has the bride is the bridegroom. The
friend of the bridegroom, who stands and hears him, rejoices greatly at the
bridegroom’s voice. For this reason my joy has been fulfilled. He must increase,
but I must decrease.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on January
09-10/2021
Health Ministry: 5414 new cases of
Corona, 20 deaths
Hizbullah Denounces US Sanctions on Iraqi Official
Salameh: Era of the Dollar Peg Has Finished
Abdel Samad Asks Media Outlets to Intensify Virus Awareness
Geagea Says Aoun’s Resignation Long-Wished-For
Gulf reconciliation and ties with France discussed by Erdogan and Hariri in
suprise meeting
‘People are begging for help,’ says tearful Lebanese doctor/Najia Houssari/Arab
News/.January 09/2021
Afiouni: Sticking to the official dollar exchange rate is at the depositor's
expense
Joseph Aoun inspects Military School in Fiyadiyeh
MEA: Denmark to require all passengers to present a negative COVID19 test before
departure
Titles For The
Latest
English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on
January
09-10/2021
Indonesia: debris found after
Sriwijaya Air flight goes missing
Flight 752 families targeted by Tehran harassment campaign
Pelosi's Talk of Limits on Trump Nuke Power Raises Old Worry
Lawmaker Says Iran to Expel UN Nuclear Inspectors Unless Sanctions Are Lifted
Iran Holds Naval Parade in Gulf Waters
Iraq Calls US Blacklisting of PMF Leader 'Unacceptable'
Israel Escalates Its 'War Between Wars' Campaign
Israel Resumes Campaign to Hinder ‘Iranian Entrenchment’ In Syria
US Envoy Visits W.Sahara after Morocco-Israel Deal
Egypt Asserts Efforts to Continue Trilateral Cooperation with Cyprus, Greece
Qatar-Saudi Border Reopens after Thaw
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 09-10/2021
Reviving Iran nuclear deal brings us back to Munich
agreement/Zalman Shoval/Jerusalem Post/January 09/2021
Jack 'Uncle Horse' Ma Is a Bad Bet/Gordon G. Chang/ Gatestone Institute./January
09/ 2021
After AlUla Summit: Will the Gulf Dream be Fulfilled?/Zuhair Al-Harthi/Asharq
Al-Awsat/January 09/2021
The Syrians’ Fear in the New Year/Akram Bunni/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 09/2021
Iraqi judiciary’s credibility shaken by arrest warrant for Trump/Hammam Latif/The
Arab Weekly/January 09/2021
There’s no great rush for a JCPOA 2/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/January 09/2021
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 09-10/2021
Health Ministry: 5414 new cases of Corona, 20 deaths
NNA/January 09/2021
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Saturday, that 5414 new Corona cases
have been reported, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases
to-date to 215,553.
It also indicated that 20 death cases were also registered during the past 24
hours.
Hizbullah Denounces US Sanctions on Iraqi Official
Naharnet/January 09/2021
Hizbullah on Saturday denounced the US sanctions imposed on the leader of Iraqi
paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces Faleh Fayyadh. In a statement issued by
the party, it said Hizbullah “condemns and denounces this American move against
Faleh Fayyad and what he represents. We consider it a badge of honor on his
chest to be added to his rich jihadist history in confronting terrorism and
atonement.”On Friday, the US Treasury said Faleh Fayyadh, head of the
state-sponsored network of pro-Iran fighters, was responsible for brutal attacks
on protesters in October 2019. The Treasury said Fayyadh was connected to
“serious human rights abuse,”and slapped sanctions against him. “By directing
and supervising the murder of peaceful Iraqi demonstrators, Iran-aligned
militants and politicians such as Faleh Fayyadh have been waging a violent
campaign against Iraqi democracy and civil society,” said Treasury Secretary
Steven Mnuchin. The PMF -- Hashed al-Shaabi in Arabic -- has close ties to
Tehran but is overseen by the Iraqi government, with Fayyadh its chairman and
top commander.
Salameh: Era of the Dollar Peg Has Finished
Naharnet/January 09/2021
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh announced that the “era of the dollar peg has
finished,” and that the Lebanese currency would be floated if an agreement was
reached with the International Monetary Fund. In remarks to France 24 on Friday,
Salameh said the Lebanese have transferred around one billion dollars from their
accounts in local banks. He said the crisis in Lebanon will get worse if a new
government is not urgently formed to implement the much-needed reforms. The
Governor pointed out that he had suggested, at the start of the crisis, the
application of "Capital Control", which was rejected by the political forces. He
stressed that the Banque du Liban had provided all the necessary information to
the forensic audit into the Central Bank’s accounts as required by the
international community, indicating that he was a victim of systematic campaigns
to hold him responsible for the collapse. Salameh assured that he does not
intend to resign, nevertheless hopes that a plan he placed to reform the banking
system succeeds.
Abdel Samad Asks Media Outlets to Intensify Virus
Awareness
Naharnet/January 09/2021
Caretaker Information Minister Manal Abdel Samad on Saturday called on all media
outlets to intensify national awareness against the dangers of coronavirus amid
an uncontrollable spike in cases hitting 5440 on Friday. Abdel Samad said
television broadcast better include news reports, interviews, tips, and
awareness films that were distributed for the purpose of raising more awareness
and limiting the increasing number of COVID-19 cases, the National News Agency
reported. The minister recommended that awareness campaigns focus on the
development of coronavirus cases and infection risks, public safety measures and
prevention methods, in addition to procedures followed with travelers and those
coming to Lebanon, in addition to the importance of mandatory quarantine. She
also called for updating the State-run televisions, Tele Liban, and its social
media sites with the latest developments and information related to the virus.
Geagea Says Aoun’s Resignation Long-Wished-For
Naharnet/January 09/2021
Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea said on Saturday that the Free Patriotic
Movement is capable of “changing the equation” in Lebanon if it breaks its
alliance with Hizbullah party, noting he never wished for President Michel Aoun
to stay in office. He said Hizbullah can make little difference in the
parliament if the FPM takes that move. “The Free Patriotic Movement is the only
side at present capable of changing the equation. What if the FPM breaks its
alliance with Hizbullah now? What would Hizbullah’s political size be? The
party’s MPs together with its allies’ total to not more than 40 deputies in the
Parliament,” said Geagea in remarks to al-Qods al-Arabi. Geagea said the LF does
not adhere to having President Michel Aoun remain in his post, and that his
resignation is long-wished-for.
“We do not adhere to having Aoun stay in his post, not for a single moment. I
wanted him to resign earlier before. This is evident in all our political
positions. We want to look for a move that changes something in the coming
reality. The only step that does is to hold early parliamentary elections," said
Geagea.
On the government formation impasse, he said: “We anticipated the delay in the
government formation based on the nature of the ruling group and its pursuit of
its own personal interests despite everything happening in Lebanon.”
Gulf reconciliation and ties with France discussed
by Erdogan and Hariri in suprise meeting
The Arab Weekly/January 09/2021
ISTANBUL--Arab sources expected the surprise visit of the Lebanese Prime
Minister-designate Saad Hariri to Istanbul, where he held a long meeting with
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to have raised the issues of Gulf
reconciliation and Turkish-French relations on top of the crisis faced by
Lebanon where no government is yet in place despite Hariri’s efforts. Sources
believe Hariri sought to explore the Turkish president’s reactions regarding
recent developments within the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in light of
the reconciliation between Qatar and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United
Arab Emirates and the kingdom of Bahrain, in addition to Egypt, which is not a
member of the Council. Erdogan, they noted, has welcomed the declaration issued
by the summit of the member states of the Cooperation Council (GCC) held in the
Saudi city of Al-Ula. According to the sources, the Turkish president wants to
be a part of the Gulf reconciliation process, being the first supporter of Qatar
in its policy at all levels. In statements, on Friday, Erdogan welcomed the
reconciliation, saying that it would “be good for the region,” and that his
country would directly benefit from it.
He stressed that “Turkey will strengthen its relations with the Gulf,” and that
” Turkey will return to its stature in the coming period for the sake of
Turkish-Gulf cooperation.”Ankara espouses a narrative that is supportive of
reconciliation and tries to appease the Saudi leadership, in particular, in
order to take advantage of this reconciliation opportunity and restore the
Turkish-Gulf relationship to its status of before the Qatar crisis of June 2017.
Turkey is doing everything it can to escape a Gulf boycott that has further
disrupted its economy as the Saudi investments in vital sectors such as real
estate dried up and tourism virtually stopped. In addressing the prospects of
Turkish-French rapprochement, Hariri can count on his close ties to both Erdogan
and French President Emmanuel Macron.
The sources pointed to the Turkish president’s desire to tone down his hostile
rhetoric towards Macron in particular and towards French policies, in general,
as Turkey prepares to deal with the Biden administration, which is not friendly
to Erdogan’s policies and orientations.
In this regard, it is believed that Erdogan prefers to achieve a rapprochement
with Europe, including France, in order to avoid the emergence of a broad front
against his policies, which include military intervention in Libya and threats
to Turkey’s neighbours, especially Cyprus and Greece.
On Thursday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that he had agreed
with his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian on a road map for the
normalisation of relations between the two countries.
Cavusoglu said, “Turkey never wants to have bad relations with any country, and
if France is sincere in this issue, then Turkey is ready to normalise its
relationship with it.”Turkey now feels the impact of France in placating its
moves in the eastern Mediterranean and in Libya, so its aim now is to
de-escalate the frictions with Paris.
The statement issued after Hariri’s visit drew attention, especially in terms of
indicating that “the meeting, which lasted for two hours and included a working
lunch, allowed for a detailed discussion of the latest regional developments,
the multiple challenges and means of cooperation between the countries of the
region to confront them.”Hariri and Erdogan also discussed relations between
Lebanon and Turkey, and ways to support efforts to stop the collapse of the
Lebanese economy and rebuild Beirut once the new government is formed in
Lebanon.
Arab diplomatic sources believe that the inclusion in the statement of “the
latest regional developments and multiple challenges” means discussion of the
regional situation beyond Turkish-Lebanese relations and the role that Turkey
can play in the field of reconstruction. A statement issued by the
communications department in the Turkish presidency stated that Erdogan held a
meeting with Hariri at Vahiddin Palace in Istanbul. The statement added that
Erdogan stressed his country’s determination to strengthen its deep bilateral
relations with Lebanon in all fields. It also underlined the importance of
political stability in Lebanon for peace and security in the region. Turkey has
already shown special interest in rebuilding the port of Beirut, a concern
shared by France, which built the port in the 19th century, while Beirut was
still an Ottoman province.
‘People are begging for help,’ says tearful Lebanese
doctor
Najia Houssari/Arab News/.January 09/2021
BEIRUT: A senior Lebanese health official broke down in tears while describing
how stricken coronavirus patients had begged him for a vacant hospital bed so
that they would not die at home in front of their families. Dr. Joseph Al-Helou,
director of the Ministry of Public Health’s medical care directorate, said that
hospitals in Lebanon are rapidly being overwhelmed but are receiving hundreds of
calls from seriously ill people pleading to be admitted. “Hospitals are under
great pressure as there are only a few vacant beds,” Al-Helou said in a video
address that was widely shared on social media platforms.
His comments came as the rise in coronavirus cases exceeded even the bleakest
predictions, with more than 5,400 new infections reported on Thursday and
Friday, and warnings that case numbers could reach 9,000 on Sunday. Revealing
the suffering of medical staff unable to offer beds to patients, a tearful Al-Helou
said: “We are receiving hundreds of calls from people who want to be admitted,
even if only to the emergency departments. If we tell them that they have to
wait for a vacant bed for five, 10 or even 24 hours, they accept. Today, there
are 41 people waiting in emergency departments.
“We are working until past midnight to provide transport for patients. Some
people decided to celebrate New Year’s Eve in restaurants — isn’t that a grave
crime?”Al-Helou said that a nurse had come to him in tears, saying that a priest
had died in front of her.
“I have never cried, but this is unbearable,” he said. “A man begs me, a woman
pleads with me to let her die on the street and not in front of her children.
How can that be? Medical personnel are drained. Some people are dying at home,
and others lack oxygen at home.”
Aida Al-Noori, a nursing supervisor at the Al-Makassed Islamic Charitable
Society Hospital in Beirut, told Arab News: “It is a terrifying scene in
emergency departments. Doctors are giving patients prescriptions to get
treatment at home, and we teach those who need oxygen how to use it at home.
Patients in critical conditions stay here.”
She added: “In the coronavirus department, we have 21 intensive care beds and we
are clearing another floor in order to dedicate 16 beds to coronavirus
patients.”
Dr. Andre Kozaily, director of the Bouar Public Hospital in Keserwan, Mount
Lebanon, said that medical staff are treating some coronavirus patients in cars
because the facility has reached maximum capacity.
According to the Ministry of Health’s daily COVID-19 data, infected cases have
reached their peak in Ashrafieh (Beirut), Haret Hreik (in the southern suburb of
Beirut), Dekwaneh (Metn), Aley and Zouk Mosbeh (Keserwan), Jbeil, Saida, Zgharta,
Riyaq (Bekaa), Hermel (Baalbek) and Abbasiyeh (in the south).
Dr. Sharaf Abu Sharaf, head of the Lebanese Order of Physicians, criticized the
ministry, saying it had failed to adequately equip public hospitals for the past
year.
“Doctors and medical personnel in the private sector are carrying out their duty
to the fullest. Private hospitals cannot be blamed. I was in the Zahle Public
Hospital today where only six of 120 beds are occupied. Why weren’t people
directed to go there? Where is the money that has been paid to the ministry to
equip hospitals? Nothing has been prepared.”Lebanon has 30 government and 130
private hospitals. Abu Sharaf said that there is a shortage of doctors available
to treat the rising numbers of patients. Hamad Hassan, the caretaker health
minister, called on people to “refrain from going anywhere, unless absolutely
necessary, during the lockdown.”Lebanon still has not received any vaccine while
the country waits on parliament to adopt a law protecting vaccinated people who
might suffer from complications. Lamia Yammine, the caretaker labor minister,
revealed on Saturday that she has been infected with the virus, while
Information Minister Manal Abdel-Samad urged media companies to “intensify
awareness-raising campaigns to reduce the number of infections.”Petra Khoury,
adviser to the caretaker prime minister on medical matters, warned that with
cases peaking in Lebanon, every person has a moral duty to avoid infecting
another person.”“Wear masks,” she said.
Afiouni: Sticking to the official dollar exchange
rate is at the depositor's expense
NNA/January 09, 2021
Former Minister Adel Afiouni tweeted Saturday over the issue of floating the US
dollar-Lebanese pound exchange rate, saying: "Floating the exchange rate today
is a fait accompli, as most Lebanese are dealing at the black market price." He
added that maintaining the official exchange rate weighs heavily on the Central
Bank's reserves, considering that since these reserves are sums borrowed by the
Central Bank from depositors, then sticking to the official rate is occurring at
the expense of depositors. Afiouni deemed that "the Central Bank's use of the
official exchange rate to support basic commodities is a wrong, ineffective,
costly and unfair mechanism," considering that it must be replaced by a subsidy
program from the state treasury, not from reserves, one that benefits the poorer
classes directly, and comes within a comprehensive social safety net to fight
poverty. "As for the use of the official exchange rate in the budgets of the
Central Bank and banks, it covers the actual losses at an artificial exchange
rate, and leads to unrealistic budgets that have no credibility or confidence in
them, which is one of the causes of the sector crisis," he corroborated. Afiouni
explained that a restructuring of the Central Bank and banks, a transparent
identification of losses and clear, honest budgets are required instead. He
stated that these reforms would be implemented as part of a comprehensive rescue
plan, the cornerstone of which would be a support program from the IMF that
provides the state with the necessary liquidity in currencies as soon as
possible.
Joseph Aoun inspects Military School in Fiyadiyeh
NNA/January 09, 2021
Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, visited the Military School in Fiyadiyeh,
where written entry exams are organized for soldiers who passed the health and
sports tests and appeared before the committee. Aoun praised the "efforts of the
committee that accompanied all stages of the exams, which were transparent,"
noting that "entering the Military School will be for those who deserve it and
have proven their competence."
MEA: Denmark to require all passengers to present a negative COVID19 test before
departure
NNA/January 09, 2021
The Middle East Airlines (MEA) issued a circular from the Danish authorities,
calling on all travelers to Denmark (Copenhagen) to present a negative PCR test
or antigen test upon check-in, within 24 hours before flight departure.
The Danish authorities will hold the airline responsible for ensuring that no
passenger takes the plane without showing a negative result, noting that
"failure to comply with these instructions will result in an immediate fine of
1699 euros."
PCR tests exclude children under the age of 12 and declare that a Schengen Type
C visa is no longer accepted.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 09-10/20201
Indonesia: debris found after Sriwijaya Air flight goes
missing
The National/January 09, 2021
Contact was lost with the Boeing 737-500 minutes after take-off from Jakarta
A Sriwijaya Air plane is suspected to have crashed several minutes after
take-off from the Indonesian capital of Jakarta on Saturday, Indonesian
authorities said. Tracking showed the path of flight SJ182 ending off the coast
slightly north of Jakarta after the plane abruptly lost altitude. Rescuers are
looking for the plane, which lost contact after taking off with more than 60
people aboard, an official of the Basarnas search and rescue agency said. It has
not yet been confirmed that debris found in the sea came from Sriwijaya Air
Flight SJ182. The Indonesian Navy said it had determined the co-ordinates of the
downed jet. A statement released by the budget airline said 56 passengers and
six crew members were onboard the Boeing 737-500 aircraft, which was on an
estimated 90-minute flight from Jakarta to Pontianak, the capital of West
Kalimantan province on Indonesia’s Borneo island. Authorities started search and
rescue operations for the plane after contact was lost at 2.40pm local time,
transport ministry spokesman Adita Irawati said. According to flight-tracking
website FlightRadar24, the aircraft appeared to have plunged 3,000 metres in
less than a minute, about four minutes after take-off. Sriwijaya Air has about
19 Boeing jets, which fly to destinations in Indonesia and South-East Asia. In
October 2018, 189 people were killed when a Lion Air Boeing 737 MAX jet slammed
into the Java Sea about 12 minutes after take-off from Jakarta on a routine
one-hour flight. Boeing was fined $2.5 billion after that crash and a subsequent
fatal flight in Ethiopia over claims it defrauded regulators overseeing the 737
MAX model, which was grounded worldwide following the two deadly crashes. But
Indonesia’s aviation sector has long suffered from a reputation for poor safety,
and its airlines were once banned from entering US and European airspace. In
2014, an AirAsia plane crashed with the loss of 162 lives. Domestic
investigators’ final report showed a chronically faulty component in a rudder
control system, poor maintenance and the pilots’ inadequate response were major
factors in what was supposed to be a routine flight from the Indonesian city of
Surabaya to Singapore.
Flight 752 families targeted by Tehran harassment campaign
Arab News/January 09, 2021 18:17
LONDON: Families of victims killed by Iran’s downing of Ukraine International
Airlines flight 752 last January have been subjected to a campaign of harassment
and intimidation for seeking justice. Hamed Esmaeilion, whose wife and daughter
were killed on the flight, told The Times newspaper that he received threatening
phone calls after attending a rally in Canada nine months after the incident. He
said an anonymous individual phoned “to talk about his loved ones’ last
moments,” and a vehicle waited suspiciously outside his Toronto home. He later
received a message that said: “You are on the list of terror, enjoy your life
before it is cut short, and you will be a lesson for out-of-country
traitors.”Friday marked the anniversary of the aviation disaster that left all
176 people on board the aircraft dead, including 57 Canadians, four Britons and
citizens of Iran, Ukraine, Sweden, Afghanistan and Germany.
A year later, families in Canada are still demanding justice and have accused
Iran of waging a psychological war against them. “It’s not just sadness, it’s
mostly rage and anger,” said Esmaeilion, a 43-year-old dentist. “One year has
passed with almost no answers.” According to a judiciary spokesperson in Iran,
six people were arrested in connection with the downing, but five of them have
now been released on bail. The country in which a plane crashes is required by
international rules to lead an investigation. However, Iran’s inquiry has faced
criticism for its secrecy and attempts to cover up important information. “The
families of the 176 victims of the downed jetliner are entitled to know who was
responsible for the deaths of their loved ones,” said Michael Page, deputy
Middle East director at Humans Rights Watch. “The Iranian government should
promptly pay adequate compensation to the families and carry out a transparent
and impartial investigation with appropriate prosecutions regardless of position
or rank.”Iran’s inquiry has faced criticism for its secrecy and attempts to
cover up important information. Iran has also faced criticism from Ukraine after
it refused to allow participation in the investigation. Ralph Goodale, Canada’s
special adviser on the crash, told The Times that Iran “contaminated” the site
and used bulldozers to hide crucial information. Victims’ families have said
personal belongings on board the flight were confiscated. “That’s deliberately
rubbing salt into the wounds. It’s disrespectful, it’s disgraceful and it shows
real contempt for human life,” Goodale said. The threats, intimidation and
stalking that Canadians have faced is “reprehensible,” he added. Another target
of Iranian intimidation is Javad Soleimani, whose wife Elnaz Nabiyi, a
30-year-old Ph.D. student, died in the crash. He said a sign reading
“Congratulations on your martyrdom” was dressed on her coffin at her funeral in
Iran before he fled the country. A Canadian association that represents victims’
families, headed by Esmaeilion, has urged Canada to take Iran to the
International Court of Justice. However, such a step can only be taken after all
other avenues of negotiation have been tried, Goodale said. “Part of the
strategy on the part of Iran is to simply wear us all out,” he added. Iran last
week said it would pay $150,000 in compensation for each victim of the crash,
but the offer has been criticized by families. “How do you put a figure on a
loved one?” said Payman Parseyan, an Iranian community leader in the Canadian
city of Edmonton, where 13 of the victims lived. “Yes, compensation is part of
Iran taking accountability, but it comes way after truth and justice.”Esmaeilion,
who married his wife Parisa after they met in college, said: “She was a
dedicated dentist, a very knowledgeable person and the best mom I have ever
known, the best wife I’ve ever known.” His daughter Reera was “the most precious
child,” he added. Esmaeilion said one year after the crash, “we keep fighting
for justice, that’s our duty and our goal. We are not going to give up.”
Pelosi's Talk of Limits on Trump Nuke Power Raises Old Worry
Associated Press/Saturday, 9 January, 2021
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's concern about President Donald Trump potentially
ordering the launch of a nuclear weapon in his final days in office highlights a
little-known fact: Launch authority rests with the president alone.
It also resurfaces a question with no certain answer: What would happen if a
military commander determined, based on legal judgment, that a president's
nuclear launch order was illegal? The commander might refuse such an order, but
then what? Trump has given no indication he is considering using nuclear
weapons, but Pelosi expressed worry that an "unhinged" president might start a
war. She said she spoke Friday to Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs
of Staff, about "available precautions" to prevent Trump from initiating
military action or ordering a nuclear launch, and she told colleagues she was
given unspecified assurances that there are longstanding safeguards in place. A
spokesman for Milley, Col. Dave Butler, confirmed that Pelosi called Milley. "He
answered her questions regarding the process of nuclear command authority,"
Butler said, declining to reveal details. Pelosi's concerns highlight the fact,
dating to the dawn of the nuclear age in the 1940s, that the president has the
sole authority to order a U.S. nuclear attack. None since Harry Truman has done
so. The president is not required to gain the consent of anyone else — not
within his administration, not in the military, not in the Congress. There are,
however, some safeguards that could come into play.
Although it would be unprecedented, a military officer could refuse to obey a
president's order to launch a nuclear weapon if a legal assessment concluded
that it constituted an illegal act under the internationally recognized laws of
armed conflict. This is a murky area, given that the circumstance has never
arisen. "If the military gets an illegitimate order from the president of the
United States, the military can and should refuse that order in a situation
where it is widely seen that the president is unfit and incapable of making a
rational decision," said Tom Z. Collina, co-author with former Defense Secretary
William J. Perry of a book, "The Button," about nuclear dangers and presidential
command authority. Under existing procedures, a president who was considering
the need to use nuclear weapons would be expected to consult with advisers, most
likely to include the secretary of defense, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, and the commander of U.S. Strategic Command, which has operational
control over the nuclear arsenal. Various assessments would be made, including
the legal aspects of strike options.
The current arrangement in which sole authority to order a nuclear launch rests
with the president is not written in law. It was created by Truman as a means to
keep decisions about use of the world's most dangerous weapons in civilian
rather than military hands. The authority is considered inherent in a
president's constitutional role as commander in chief. During the Cold War, the
prospect of nuclear war meant having to respond within minutes to a wave of
Soviet missiles zeroing in on the United States. Time would be of the essence.
Thus is seemed to make sense to leave the decision to one person, without the
need for time-consuming consultations with Congress. But times have changed.
Some argue that the traditional "sole-authority" approach must change, too.
"Once in office, a president gains the absolute authority to start a nuclear
war," Collina and Perry wrote in a Politico opinion article published Friday.
"Within minutes, Trump can unleash hundreds of atomic bombs, or just one. He
does not need a second opinion."Collina, Perry and others have been pushing for
Congress to alter the nuclear command authority so that it is shared between the
president and the Congress. The issue has been raised repeatedly during Trump's
presidency. In November 2017 the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a
public hearing on the subject — the first hearing of its kind in several
decades. Testifying at that hearing, a former commander of U.S. nuclear forces,
retired Air Force Gen. Robert Kehler, was asked what would happen if a president
ordered a nuclear strike, for whatever reason, and the four-star general at
Strategic Command balked or refused, believing it to be illegal. "You'd be in a
very interesting constitutional situation," Kehler replied. Also in November
2017, the Air Force general who was commanding Strategic Command at the time
raised the possibility of having to refuse an illegal launch order. That
officer, Gen. John Hyten, who is now the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, stressed that in any circumstance the military is obliged to only follow
legal orders. "I provide advice to the president," Hyten said. "He'll tell me
what to do, and if it's illegal, guess what's going to happen? I'm gonna say,
'Mr. President, that's illegal.' Guess what he's going to do? He's going to say,
'What would be legal?' And we'll come up with options of a mix of capabilities
to respond to whatever the situation is, and that's the way it works. It's not
that complicated."
Lawmaker Says Iran to Expel UN Nuclear Inspectors Unless
Sanctions Are Lifted
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 9 January, 2021
Iran will expel United Nations nuclear watchdog inspectors unless sanctions are
lifted by a Feb. 21 deadline set by the hard-line-dominated parliament, a
lawmaker said on Saturday. Parliament passed a law in November that obliges the
government to halt inspections of its nuclear sites by the International Atomic
Energy Agency and to step up uranium enrichment beyond the limit set under
Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal if sanctions are not eased. Iran’s Guardian Council
watchdog body approved the law on Dec. 2 and the government has said it will
implement it. “According to the law, if the Americans do not lift financial,
banking and oil sanctions by Feb. 21, we will definitely expel the IAEA
inspectors from the country and will definitely end the voluntary implementation
of the Additional Protocol,” said parliamentarian Ahmad Amirabadi Farahani. The
comments, referring to texts governing the IAEA’s mission and activities, were
carried by several Iranian media outlets, according to The Associated Press.
Iran said on Monday it had resumed 20% uranium enrichment at an underground
nuclear facility, breaching the nuclear pact with major powers and possibly
complicating efforts by US President-elect Joe Biden to rejoin the deal.
It began violating the accord in 2019 in response to US President Donald Trump’s
withdrawal from it in 2018 and the reimposition of US sanctions lifted under the
deal. Tehran often said it can quickly reverse its breaches if Washington’s
sanctions are removed.
Iran Holds Naval Parade in Gulf Waters
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 9 January, 2021
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Saturday held a naval parade in the Gulf, state TV
reported, amid heightened regional tensions over Tehran's nuclear program. The
naval rally was performed near Iran's Farsi Island where Iranian forces seized
two US navy boats and 10 crew members for less than one day in January 2016.
Footage showed scores of vessels took part in the maneuver. Iranian state TV
said hundreds of boats participated. Last week, Iran seized a South Korean oil
tanker and its crew members in the Gulf, which it has continued to hold at an
Iranian port. Last year, Iran similarly seized a British-flagged oil tanker and
held it for months after one of its tankers was held off Gibraltar, The
Associated Press reported. Iran periodically holds military maneuvers in the
Gulf waters and elsewhere in the country that it says aim to improve the
readiness of its armed forces. Earlier on Tuesday, Iran held a massive
drone-only drill coordinated across different points in the country.
Iraq Calls US Blacklisting of PMF Leader 'Unacceptable'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 9 January, 2021
Iraq denounced on Saturday as “unacceptable” a US decision to blacklist Faleh
al-Fayyad, leader of the mainly Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).
In announcing the move on Friday, the US Treasury accused him of leading militia
that killed hundreds of protesters with live ammunition during a crackdown on
anti-government demonstrations in 2019. It said he had coordinated with Iran’s
Revolutionary Guards. “We confirm that the decision was an unacceptable
surprise,” the Iraqi Foreign Ministry said in a statement, adding that “it will
carefully follow up with the current and the new administration in Washington on
all decisions issued by the US Treasury Department against Iraqis.”The United
States killed Fayyad’s predecessor as PMF leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a year
ago in a drone strike at Baghdad airport, along with Qassem Soleimani, the top
Iranian general leading operations among Tehran’s allies in the region. The PMF
congratulated Fayyad for his blacklisting in a statement late on Friday, saying
that he had joined “the honorable ones whom the US administration regards as
enemies”. He was also praised by the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah. On
Thursday an Iraqi court issued an arrest warrant for US President Donald Trump,
as part of an investigation into the killing of Soleimani and Muhandis. Tens of
thousands of supporters of Iranian-backed Iraqi paramilitary groups took to the
streets this week to mark the anniversary of the killing.
Israel Escalates Its 'War Between Wars' Campaign
Tel Aviv- Nazir Majli/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 9
January, 2021
Israel is escalating its “war between wars” campaign by demanding the removal of
Lebanese Hezbollah, along with all Iranian militias from Syria. As a result,
Israeli warplanes dropped leaflets in several areas in southern Syria warning
the regime forces against its collaboration with Hezbollah and Iranian militias.
The leaflet also threatened the commander of the Syrian army’s 112th Brigade,
Basil Abu Eid, residing in Quneitra, with assassination. Addressing Abu Eid, the
leaflet said that despite prior warnings, he was still allowing Hezbollah forces
to operate in the area under his command. “Hezbollah has brought destruction and
instability to the region. You personally and the army, in general, will pay the
price. Now is the time for Hezbollah to leave Syria. Now is the time for
Hezbollah to leave the 112th Brigade,” read the leaflet. Earlier, Israel
reportedly attacked sites of the regime and pro-Iranian forces but deliberately
avoided Hezbollah’s locations. Israeli sources considered it an escalation in
Israeli goals and demands. Tel Aviv is no longer satisfied with just removing
Iran and its militias from Syria as it now wants Hezbollah out of the country as
well. It is also threatening the regime’s army of increased operations. Israeli
Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, announced in a meeting with Northern Brigade
leaders that the army executed over 50 attacks and many covert operations in
2020, forcing Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to evacuate many of its
bases in Syria and withdraw some of its militias. Kochavi revealed that Iranian
bases, camps, and headquarters have been evacuated from the Damascus area as
part of a campaign to move them to northeastern Syria. Within the framework of
Tel Aviv’s “war between wars” military activities, the frequency, and quality of
Israeli operations have increased in Syria, and so did the range of covert
activities. The Iranian repositioning in Syria slowed down over the past two
years as a result of the Israeli activities, announced Kochavi. The number of
Iranian activists in Syria and affiliated militias has also decreased
significantly. A senior Israeli official indicated in a press briefing that
President Bashar al-Assad realized that the Iranian presence complicates the
situation and contributes to the Turkish expansion in the north. Assad doesn’t
dare to speak with the “rude officials” in Tehran, who insist on using his
country as part of their goals to control the region, according to the official.
Iran evacuated some of its sites, however, it kept Hezbollah in its locations.
Tel Aviv is trying to prevent that because the party wants to use southern Syria
as another front for its war against Israel.
Israel Resumes Campaign to Hinder ‘Iranian
Entrenchment’ In Syria
Damascus/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 9 January, 2021
Syrian Presidential Advisor Bouthaina Shaaban praised the role of late commander
of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, in each of
Iran, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, describing him as the owner of “strategic thinking
that undermines the enemy’s strategy.”Shaaban was speaking during a ceremony
held by the Iranian embassy in Damascus on the first anniversary of Soleimani’s
killing in a US strike in Baghdad in January 2020. The ceremony was attended by
Iranian ambassador to Damascus, Jawad Turkabadi, and a large number of Syrian
officials and representatives of Palestinian organizations in the Syrian
capital. Meanwhile, the official Syrian TV said that Israel struck targets in
southern Syria on Wednesday, the third attack of its kind in around 10 days,
Reuters reported. A military spokesman quoted by Reuters said missiles flying
over the Golan Heights targeted several locations and air defenses downed
several missiles. “Our air defenses responded to an aerial Israeli aggression...
on some targets in the southern region,” state media quoted a Syrian army
spokesman as saying. According to the news agency, two military defectors said
the strikes hit the Kisswa area in the southern outskirts of the capital
Damascus and military bases used by Lebanon’s Hezbollah group. Israeli military
officials have said in recent months that Israel would escalate its campaign
against the Iranian presence in Syria, according to Reuters. The Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights reported that the Israeli raids targeted sites
where “Iranian militias and the Lebanese Hezbollah” were stationed, which
resulted in “deaths and injuries.”Reuters noted that while no immediate comment
was made by an Israeli military spokesman, Israel’s Defense Force Chief of Staff
Aviv Kochavi said last month the missile strikes had “slowed down Iran’s
entrenchment in Syria”.
US Envoy Visits W.Sahara after Morocco-Israel Deal
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 9 January, 2021
A top US envoy visited contested Western Sahara on Saturday, after Washington
recognized Morocco's sovereignty there in exchange for Rabat normalizing ties
with Israel. Western Sahara is a disputed and divided former Spanish colony,
mostly under Morocco's control, where tensions with the pro-independence
Polisario Front have simmered since the 1970s. Last year Morocco joined the
United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan in agreeing to normalize ties with
Israel under US-brokered deals. In return, US President Donald Trump fulfilled a
decades-old Moroccan goal by backing its contested sovereignty over the barren
but phosphate-rich region, which lies next to rich Atlantic fishing zones. The
US Embassy in Rabat called the trip by David Schenker, Assistant Secretary of
State for Near Eastern Affairs, and the highest-ranking US diplomat for North
Africa and the Middle East, "a historic visit".
Morocco's official news agency MAP reported that Schenker had visited Laayoune,
the capital of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara. Schenker, who is on a
regional tour including Algeria and Jordan, also visited a United Nations base
in the region, MAP said.UN peacekeepers in the Western Sahara are mandated to
organize a referendum on self-determination for the region, and despite
Washington's move, the UN insists its position is "unchanged". Schenker's visit
comes ahead of the expected opening of a provisional US consulate in the desert
region on Sunday, according to diplomatic sources in Rabat. Last month the US
State Department announced it would open a "virtual" diplomatic post in Western
Sahara before building a consulate, slated for the southern fishing port of
Dakhla. Joe Biden, who will replace Trump as president on January 20, has not
publicly commented on Western Sahara.
"Every administration has the prerogative to set foreign policy," Schenker,
speaking in his previous stop in Algeria, but ruling out any US military
presence in Western Sahara. But, he said, "let me be clear: The US is not
establishing a military base in the Western Sahara." Over a dozen countries have
already opened diplomatic offices in the territory, including the UAE and
several African and Arab nations. The Polisario Front, which fought a war for
independence from 1975 to 1991, considers such moves violations of international
law. While the Western Sahara is home to fewer than a million people, it offers
Morocco rich phosphate resources, fisheries and a key highway to Mauritania and
the rest of West Africa. In November, the Polisario announced it regarded a 1991
ceasefire as null and void, after Morocco sent troops into a UN-patrolled buffer
zone to reopen the road.
Egypt Asserts Efforts to Continue Trilateral
Cooperation with Cyprus, Greece
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 9 January, 2021
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi hailed the growing bilateral cooperation
with Cyprus, reflected in the keenness to coordinate stances on regional issues
of mutual concern. Sisi also affirmed Egypt's efforts to activate trilateral
cooperation with Cyprus and Greece. During a phone call with Cypriot President
Nicos Anastasiades, Sisi discussed issues of bilateral relations and regional
developments, within the framework of common interests and stances in the
Eastern Mediterranean region, announced presidential spokesman Bassam Rady.
Egypt has close ties with Greece and Cyprus, and the three countries hold
regular summits within the framework of their cooperation in the energy field in
the Mediterranean. Rady indicated that the two leaders discussed cooperation in
the field of energy, and exchanged views on the developments of several regional
issues. Last December, the Egyptian President described his country's tripartite
cooperation with Greece and Cyprus as an example of good neighbor relations that
promote security and stability in the Eastern Mediterranean region. For his
part, the Cypriot president expressed his keenness to coordinate and exchange
views with Sisi on all issues of common interests, according to Rady.
Anastasiades hailed the firm and growing relations between Egypt and Cyprus in
various fields, affirming his country’s willingness to take further steps to
strengthen the ongoing bilateral relations and friendship with Egypt. The
leaders of Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus previously agreed on the necessity of
combating “escalation policies” of Turkey in the East Mediterranean, which
threaten the stability of the region. During their tripartite summit in Nicosia
last October, the leaders asserted the importance of coordinating with
international partners to take measures that maintain the requirements of
regional security. At the end of 2020, the three countries conducted “Medusa 10”
joint naval and aerial training on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea in Egypt,
with the participation of French and Emirati navy, aerial and special forces, as
well as observers from Saudi Arabia, US, Bahrain, Sudan, Jordan, Italy, and
Germany.
The drill is part of the coordination efforts and joint work to
confront the challenges in the Mediterranean region.
Qatar-Saudi Border Reopens after Thaw
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 9 January, 2021
Qatar and Saudi Arabia reopened their land border Saturday, Qatari sources told
AFP, as they restore ties following a landmark deal to end a three and a half
year rift. Saudi shut its side of Qatar's only land border in June 2017 as part
of a package of sanctions it said was a response to Doha's backing for radical
Islamist groups and closeness to Iran. Qatar always denied the charges. "Yes,
the border is open," said one Qatari source, while another confirmed that
traffic at the Abu Samrah crossing, 120 kilometres (75 miles) south of Doha,
resumed around 0700 GMT. Saudi Arabia, along with the United Arab Emirates,
Bahrain and Egypt which also imposed an embargo on travel and trade, agreed to
lift the restrictions at a Gulf Cooperation Council summit in the kingdom on
Tuesday. On January 4, Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Ahmad Nasser Al-Sabah announced
on state television that a deal had been agreed to "open the airspace and land
and sea borders between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the State of Qatar".
"They are letting them go from the Qatar side," said a witness at the border on
Saturday. Qatar has announced strict coronavirus control measures for those
arriving from the Saudi side that will require travellers to present a negative
test result, undergo a fresh test at the frontier, and quarantine in a
government-approved hotel for one week."It is a great joy, I bought this new
car, a Land Cruiser, in order to go and celebrate with my relatives in Saudi
Arabia, and I took the coronavirus test and waited here hoping they would allow
us to cross at any moment," said Zaid Muhammad al-Marri, 23, a Qatari whose
mother is Saudi, ahead of the border reopening.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 09-10/2021
Reviving Iran nuclear deal brings us back to Munich
agreement
Zalman Shoval/Jerusalem Post/January 09/2021
Has US President-elect Joe Biden learned from history or will he now fall into the Iranian trap?
The emerging Biden administration faces several pressing foreign policy issues –
with apparent intention of returning to the original 2015 nuclear agreement with
Iran, The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) being the most challenging
and controversial one. History does not repeat itself nor is there ever exact
parallelism, but students of history ought to remember the 1938 Munich
Agreement.
Nazi Germany, bent on subduing Poland, first played a diplomatic game and even
signed a non-aggression pact with it – also known as the Munich Betrayal – in
which Czechoslovakia was abandoned by Britain and France. Hitler changed his
modus operandi and presented the Poles with unacceptable ultimatums as an
opening to aggression.
Iran isn’t planning aggression against the US, but it is replicating – almost
precisely – the Nazi methods of deception. It is presenting the United States
and Europe with an ultimatum of sorts: first lift the sanctions against us and
then we will perhaps agree – the emphasis here is on “perhaps” – to discuss
other issues.
But has US President-elect Joe Biden learned from history or will he now fall
into the Iranian trap? For now, some of his and his team’s statements explicitly
saying that they would seek to revive the Iran deal, are bound to encourage the
Iranians in assuming that their ultimatum is working.
The British Economist wrote in a recent issue: “Mr. Biden rejects the idea of
putting preconditions on a return to the JCPOA,” and a critical interview with
The New York Times’ Tom Friedman showed that the lesson of Munich had, indeed,
not been learned. As Biden stated in the interview, the US should first rejoin
the original nuclear deal, as Tehran demands, lift the sanctions imposed by
Trump and then hold “immediate” negotiations to bring about desirable changes to
the agreement and address Iran’s malign activities in the Middle East. “There’s
a lot of talk about precision missiles and the range of other things that are
destabilizing the region,” Biden told Friedman. “But the best way to achieve
getting some stability is to deal with the nuclear program... ” In other words,
to renew the previous agreement in its entirety – or as Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani said: “You just have to take a piece of paper and sign it.” Iranian
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif rejoined: “We will never negotiate a new
agreement.”
To his credit, Friedman is more realistic than the incoming president,
commenting that “it would be unwise for the United States to give up the
leverage of the Trump-imposed oil sanctions,” and that “we should use that
leverage to also get Iran to curb its exports of precision-guided missiles to
its allies in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, where they threaten Israel and
several Arab states,” while defining Iran’s intentions towards Israel as
“murderous.” Friedman notes that while Biden and his team – including his
nominee for National Security adviser Jake Sullivan who was involved in
negotiating the JCPOA – are aware of this argument; in their view this does not
diminish the importance of restoring the original agreement “and we will take
care of the rest later.”
HENRY KISSINGER, in a virtual discussion with Dennis Ross this week (as part of
an event of the Jewish People Policy Institute) reiterated that “Iran possessing
nuclear weapons was irreconcilable with a stable Middle East,” adding that
Israel and the other countries in the region “cannot afford a mistake; they
won’t have another chance.”
In an ideally moral world, a regime that unabashedly threatens to obliterate
another country and its people, would be declared a pariah among nations – and
certainly not a partner for diplomacy. But, as we see, this is not the case.
The Middle East is not as it was in 2015 when the nuclear deal was signed. The
US is in a much stronger position vis-à-vis Iran now than it was then. The
commonality of interests between Israel and the Sunni Arab states against the
Iranian threat has led to the creation of a unified pragmatic front with
far-reaching implications for the future of the region.
This front is now signaling to Biden – and not just in words – that his
administration should consider its fundamental and existential interests. As
Yousef Al Otaiba, the UAE’s ambassador in Washington recently argued, in the
nuclear deal of 2015, the US ignored the interests and concerns of its Middle
East partners and hoping that there should be no repeat of this.
Israel may have to play a key role in this regard. This is because Iran’s
aspirations for regional hegemony and its military and subversive plans pose an
existential threat to Israel – and not just because of Israeli military
capacities – but also because of its connections with opinion formers in
America, including the mainstay of the Democratic party (relations which Israel
should make every effort to reinvigorate).
Israel has been involved in a multifront preemptive war against Iran in recent
years. Its relative success in this conflict was based on its correct strategic
understanding, its close ties with the outgoing US administration and its
creative diplomacy towards the other important player in the region, Russia, and
hopefully it will find a way for practical understandings in this regard with
the Biden administration as well.
Though the US since the Obama era, including the Trump administration, has
sought to gradually deemphasize its interests in the Middle East, many experts
have pointed out that it will continue to be of strategic importance to the US.
The reasons include preserving the free flow of energy resources out of the
Persian Gulf, fighting terrorism, preventing the proliferation of weapons of
mass destruction and, of course, the security of Israel and its other allies in
the Middle East and – in the long run – also of Europe.
Although Iran is not Nazi Germany in terms of its military capabilities, Germany
did not have nuclear weapons and Iran – if not stopped – will. Also, a vacuum
never remains unfilled and the obvious candidate to fill it is China.
Jack 'Uncle Horse' Ma Is a Bad Bet
Gordon G. Chang/ Gatestone Institute./January 09/ 2021
Beijing has... gone after Ma's business empire hard.
[R]egulators appear to be forcing Ant to restrict its profitable investment and
loan businesses and making the company accept bank-like regulation. Tighter
control would ensure that the fast-growing Ant would pose less of a challenge to
state control of lending.
Rumor has it that Beijing ordered Ma not to leave the country. "His passport has
supposedly been held by the Foreign Ministry for a long time," Anne
Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research told Gatestone, passing along financial
community gossip.
Of course, this series of incidents also shows that foreign optimism about the
Chinese markets—large inflows of capital have recently driven the Chinese
currency sharply higher against the dollar—could be misplaced. If Jack Ma's
business empire can be broken up—and that is what's happening—all foreign
investment is at risk of confiscation.
Foreigners need to begin paying attention....
Jack Ma's fate, then, is a leading indicator.
If Jack Ma's business empire can be broken up—and that is what's happening—all
foreign investment is at risk of confiscation.
Ma Yun, until recently China's richest individual, is in detention in a Chinese
cell, is in hiding in China, is "embracing supervision" from the ruling
Communist Party, or is in Singapore after having evaded Chinese authorities. One
observer even argues Ma's disappearance, the object of intense speculation in
China and elsewhere, is nothing more than a ruse.
Which version of the truth is true? Take your pick.
Facts are scarce. Jack Ma, as Ma is known outside China, possesses one of his
country's most famous faces and evidently loves the limelight, but he has not
been seen in public since the last day of October, vanishing soon after
criticizing state bankers.
Ma's disappearance suggests deep troubles in China's financial circles and
almost certainly problems in top Communist Party leadership ranks.
On October 24, Ma criticized China's state bankers at a high-profile event, the
Bund Summit in Shanghai.
In his most publicized comment, Ma highlighted the excessive reliance of state
bankers on collateral for lending. He called their thinking out-of-date.
What he said is accepted truth in Chinese financial circles and the substance of
his comments have been voiced by state bankers themselves. Yet Ma, with a flair
for publicity, ridiculed them and spoke dismissively. For instance, he said
these bankers had a "pawnshop mentality," a reference to overly cautious
lending.
At the same time, he also said his Ant Group, a financial payments platform that
was fast branching out into other financial services, would promote lending to
China's small businesses.
It is generally believed the that Xi Jinping, general secretary of China's
Communist Party, was particularly disturbed by Ma's comments in Shanghai. In any
event, Chinese regulators—probably on Xi's direct orders—called Ma on the carpet
and, at the last minute, suspended Ant's initial public offering in Shanghai and
Hong Kong. The offering was expected in early November to raise $39.5 billion
and would have set a world record.
Beijing has since gone after Ma's business empire hard. In late December,
China's State Administration for Market Regulation announced an Anti-Monopoly
Law investigation of Alibaba Group, which owns about a third of Ant. Regulators
are concerned that Alibaba, China's premier online retailer, is forcing sellers
not to do business with the online platforms of competitors. Ma in the public
eye is associated with Alibaba, which he co-founded. He stepped down as
executive chairman in 2019 and left the company's board last October.
At the same time, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the
Ministry of Commerce called Alibaba and five competitors, including Tencent and
JD.com, in for a "meeting" to discuss their subsidy policies, which were said to
be predatory.
Moreover, regulators appear to be forcing Ant to restrict its profitable
investment and loan businesses and making the company accept bank-like
regulation. Tighter control would ensure that the fast-growing Ant would pose
less of a challenge to state control of lending.
The Wall Street Journal reported this regulatory move would facilitate state
entities taking a larger stake in the company.
It is not clear Beijing wants to own a bigger slice of Ant, but Ma, on November
2, is said to have offered to hand over portions of the business to Beijing, in
an apparent attempt to save the offering. "You can take any of the platforms Ant
has, as long as the country needs it," Ma told regulators according to Wall
Street Journal reporting.
Rumor has it that Beijing ordered Ma not to leave the country. "His passport has
supposedly been held by the Foreign Ministry for a long time," Anne
Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research told Gatestone, passing along financial
community gossip.
Ma is not traveling far; he may not be moving around at all. Whatever his travel
status, he has also dropped out of sight. As the Financial Times reported on New
Year's Eve, he was not included as a judge on the final round of "Africa's
Business Heroes" when it was taped in November. Ma was removed from promotional
material for the "Shark Tank"-like television show, which he had a hand in
creating. His Jack Ma Foundation offers contestants prizes.
Why did Ma, who has been a Communist Party member for at least a half decade,
run into such trouble? Analysts believe this incident shows Ma had become
arrogant, that Xi Jinping could not tolerate another larger-than-life figure in
China, that the Communist Party was determined to maintain control of the
country's financial markets and banking sector.
Of course, this series of incidents also shows that foreign optimism about the
Chinese markets—large inflows of capital have recently driven the Chinese
currency sharply higher against the dollar—could be misplaced. If Jack Ma's
business empire can be broken up—and that is what's happening—all foreign
investment is at risk of confiscation.
Every so often the Communist Party confiscates assets. One such move was the
expulsion of foreigners from China Unicom in the late 1990s. Chinese law
prohibited foreigners from the telecom business, so Unicom devised a complex
shareholding relationship to evade Beijing's rules. Foreigners need to begin
paying attention. They are not permitted to own Alibaba's internet business, and
its shareholding structure uncomfortably resembles Unicom's.
Stevenson-Yang tells Gatestone that the regime has detained "most private
entrepreneurs who amassed wealth in hard currency." "The key," she says, is that
they become dangerous when they own real currency and thus can escape the
Mainland death ray."
Several detained entrepreneurs have reappeared, she points out. Some, however,
have not.
So, what will happen to Jack?
"Uncle Horse," as he's known in China, chose a particularly bad moment to
attract unwanted attention. Not only was official concern and resentment against
Alibaba and Ant growing over a long period, but also Ma's words came at what
looks to be a time of turmoil in Beijing circles.
There are, most notably, unsubstantiated stories of Xi Jinping undergoing brain
aneurism surgery; an official announcement that a senior finance executive, Lai
Xiaomin, will be put to death; and a sweeping amendment of Chinese law that
strips Premier Li Keqiang of much of his authority and gives it to the military.
We do not know exactly what is happening, but Jack Ma looks as if he has been
caught up in intensified political infighting. That turbulence, unfortunately,
can also ripple beyond China's borders and affect others.
Jack Ma's fate, then, is a leading indicator.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone
Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow, and member of its Advisory Board. Follow
him on Twitter and Parler @GordonGChang.
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or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
After AlUla Summit: Will the Gulf Dream be Fulfilled?
Zuhair Al-Harthi/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 09/2021
It's a big question, no doubt, and the answer could be more of a wish than a
prediction. With that, everything is still possible; we are used to being
pleasantly surprised by the Gulf states, as the Saudi Foreign Minister said, no
matter the disputes within the same house, the Gulf leaders are capable of
overcoming everything. Who expected, even just a few weeks ago, the Gulf
reconciliation and the resumption of diplomatic ties? Or that the Crown Prince
Mohammad bin Salman and Sheikh Tamim would share a warm embrace upon the
latter’s arrival to AlUla?
Three decades ago, Saddam Hussein embarked on an insane adventure when he
invaded Kuwait. The bitter experience the people of the Gulf underwent revealed
to us, then, a truth that we had not yet been aware of; our countries share the
same fate, and threatening the security of one nation, inevitably, has
implications for its sisters. Soon afterward, the events in Bahrain came to
enshrine this theory, as it became clear that Tehran had financed the fifth
column, a fact revealed through the spy-cells exposed in several Gulf countries.
The Gulf reconciliation was crowned by Egypt’s presence, and the summit was held
although optimists hadn’t expected it to take place. Of course, this is a mark
of success for the Gulf bloc, which has been keen on maintaining its unity
despite the storms, tornadoes, and events that have hit over the past few
decades. The late Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad’s efforts are unforgettable, as are
Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad’s enthusiasm and the US’s endeavors. They, as well as
geopolitical and other factors, pushed in the direction of resolving the Gulf
rift.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan referred to a fundamental and
pivotal aspect of the AlUla declaration, which signed by all in attendance when
he said: "The members of the council underscored their solidarity and need to
refrain from infringing on the security and sovereignty of any of their
countries and the social fabric and security of their people."
He also stressed that the summit “serves the supreme interests of the Gulf
Cooperation Council and Arab national security.”
The statement is clear and sufficient. It became apparent that the era of
flattery has passed and that speaking candidly is both useful and required. The
pragmatic assessment reached by the Council’s states demonstrated a strong sense
of responsibility and a high degree of courage. It also indicated a genuine
awareness of the scope of the challenges facing them; they lived up to the
occasion and were up to threats posed by the current state of affairs facing
them. Regional circumstances and the critical nature of this historic phase call
for profound solidarity, consciousness of the region’s history and an
understanding of the geography’s sensitivity and complexity. For this reason,
the Council has always been called upon to anticipate the projects being cooked
up. Because of the danger of the threats surrounding it, the matter is no longer
one of confrontation but of existence and survival.
In conclusion, we must rally around one another as Gulf citizens and think about
our interests first. And as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said: “There is a
desperate need today to unite our efforts to promote our region and confront
challenges that surround us”, affirming that “a unified and strong Gulf
Cooperation Council” is his country’s top policy priority. The Prince’s message
is one of support, commitment and a reiteration of Saudi Arabia's position.
When we were suffering from poverty, ignorance and hardship, no one turned an
eye to us. No one cared about our struggles, not the Turks, nor the Persians,
nor others. When oil was discovered in the Gulf, they hurried into our way,
searching for spoils, orchestrating conspiracies and schemes, and sowing discord
to further their hidden agenda. Will the Gulf dream come to fruition? The
political will at the AlUla summit was extraordinary, and when there is a will,
there is a way. Thus, it is an exceptional critical phase that should be built
on, such that the Council can launch a new strategy amid international political
realignment in the region. This implies prioritizing the collective’s interests,
as they guarantee and safeguard the survival of the Gulf’s entity.
In fairness, the Council’s success hinges on the will of its members. The
climate of transparency in AlUla inspires optimism and indicates the emergence
of a qualitative development. True, the Gulf Cooperation Council was relatively,
upon phases, successful at facing political and economic challenges, in addition
to the wars that were ignited by regional states. And despite all of this, the
entity remained intact. However, an issue remains concerning rules, structures
and mechanisms on which the Council is built, as they no longer meet this era’s
demands.
Saudi Arabia has already proposed King Abdullah’s idea of forming a union. Then,
the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz presented his
broad and extraordinary vision, which was approved by the Council in 2015,
invigorating the Council’s role in what was a watershed moment in Gulf
cooperation’s journey. The lofty vision encompassed several axes, including
crystallizing a unified foreign policy, taking the steps needed to culminate
economic unity and common defense and security systems, and enhancing the
Cooperation Council’s international standing and its role in resolving regional
and international issues. Interestingly, the summit’s conclusions are fully
aligned with the vision of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman.
It set a schedule for implementing this vision and included mechanisms for
following up on it.
AlUla summit reinvigorated the Gulf council’s spirit. Will it, then, manage to
unite efforts and bring about a united stance borne out of faith in its members’
common destiny, a will to safeguard their security and maintain their gains, and
compete in a world that only believes in blocs? Only time will tell.
The Syrians’ Fear in the New Year
Akram Bunni/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 09/2021
Euphemistically, we could say that the fires of the Syrian people’s dreams have
been put out. Their gentle hopes and dreams that all the world's peoples aspire
to achieve in the new year are absent in the face of the emergence of extreme
fear and anxiety that the next phase will carry, as the preceding years had,
increased deterioration, tribulation and pain.
It starts with severe fears, building up inside the majority of Syrians’ spirits
and growing with every passing day, about the fate of a nation whose name they
carry and are proud to belong to. These fears will persist so long as they
cannot stop the country from slipping from their fingers and tumbling toward the
abyss. They will persist as they are unable to stop it from disintegrating into
spheres of influence governed by the military interventions of foreign powers
that are not concerned with the Syrians’ fate and their national unity as they
are safeguarding their interests and turning the country into an arena where
they can settle scores and increase their influence.
Are the Syrians not deeply frightened and worried by the sight of their state’s
internal structure’s fragmentation and the authorities’ subordination to and
dependence on the foreign powers from whom it sought protection? Shouldn’t they
be concerned when the governments of Tehran and Ankara provoke sectarian
sentiments to deepen divisions that they exploit to gain more ground in Syria.
Moreover, does the Syrians’ panic not increase and their aspirations for minimal
salvation not dimmish by the persistence of developments and balances of power
that prolong their crisis – all this amid the international community and UN
organizations’ failure to achieve any breakthrough to activate the political
process. Regional and local powers that hold sway in Syria have no interest in
easing the conflict, but they want the war to continue so that they can maintain
the gains and sources of wealth.
Why wouldn’t the Syrians’ fears be stoked by the arrival of a new president to
the White House, one whose policy on the region is likely to open doors to the
intensification of the rivalry and disputes between the main parties to the
conflict, and their exposure to the ramifications of the struggle between Russia
and America over shares and spoils?
Indeed, why wouldn’t they panic over what Iran might do and excuse in order to
maintain its influence in Syria and confront the growing global drive to besiege
it and expel it from the country? Or of the disputes between Moscow and Ankara
and their ambitions being manifested militarily? They may perhaps be limited for
the time being, but they are likely to expand. They threaten to undercut the
accords concluded between them in Astana and Sochi, thereby posing the threat of
reigniting the bloody conflict, a return to the spiraling violence that has left
scores of victims, devastation and displaced countless communities in its wake!
Still, the direct and primary fear haunting Syrians at the gates of the new year
pertains to the implications of the country’s total economic collapse. Their
minds are fraught with concerns about the failure of all the conflicting parties
- the regime, the opposition and the Kurdish faction - to manage their societies
and provide basic necessities. Here, it does not suffice to refer to the
millions of Syrians who have lost their homes and properties as a result of the
bombardment and devastation and are in great need of assistance. This also
applies to those who have lost their jobs and have not found alternative means
to secure an income that would alleviate their families’ hunger and deprivation.
The matter also impacts most of those who work in the public sector, now
hopelessly chasing their basic needs amid the astronomical rise in prices and
the Syrian pound’s steep decline.
Exacerbating matters further is the damage left by the extreme violence seen in
the country, its destruction of infrastructure and the declining quality and
availability of many public, health and educational institutions. This
deterioration is most clearly demonstrated by millions of children being
deprived of the opportunity to go to school, and the struggles Syrians must
undergo to obtain electricity, fuel and heating.
There is also the excruciating manner in which the various conflicting parties
dealt with the coronavirus pandemic, defined by contempt for human life and
apathy about people losing their lives.
How then, are we to assess the situation once we add the Syrians’ fears of
security agencies terrorizing them and seizing their property, especially since
they now act with absolute impunity!? How are we to assess the fears of Syrians
governed by Islamic jihadists, who have been blinded by an ideology that drives
them to kill and denounce as apostates all those who don’t share their beliefs,
as they seek to impose their way of life, and its rights and wrongs, on the
populace, with no regard for their humanitarian choices.
Displaced and refugee Syrians are added to this scene. Fear is eating them
alive, not only because of the natural factors of the cold and alienation, the
decline of welfare and their deteriorating living conditions, but from the
changed positions of the societies who have hosted them in exile. These stances
have changed due to the pressure caused by the number of refugees and the
emergence of ISIS. Their search for dignified solutions that would allow them to
continue to live there has become difficult, as prejudice and humiliation define
their existence.
The result is the same, regardless of the various reasons for the collective or
individual horrific ordeal facing Syrians, which go back the intransigence of a
regime that was concerned only with staying in power. To this end, it sought
various forms of external support, employed the most vicious of means, killing
and torturing the people to crush them and silence their demands for the basic
rights they are entitled to. Or whether it stems from the presence of fanatical
terrorist jihadist groups and the absence of a political alternative that could
earn society’s trust, which is tied to the weakness of the Syrian opposition and
its subjugation to the pressure of Islamic political groups and foreign
dictates.
Or whether it is a consequence of the international community’s passivity and
its failure to intervene, for years, to stop violence, protect civilians and
impose a political settlement. The result is one; Syria is in danger of being
lost, and the increased fear we are witnessing on the Syrian people’s faces is
due to the realities of the painful deterioration of their country on every
front. Everything is sliding towards the worst and most painful outcome, from
the country’s independence and its national identity, to the unity of society
and state institutions, the future of national, sectarian and civil strife, the
security situation, economic and living conditions, and the prospects for
salvation. Under the weight of these fears, it would be accurate to explain the
Syrians’ broad participation, in their various affiliations - with the absence
of the Syrian regime representatives - in bidding innovative director Hatem Ali
farewell… It is as though they had been awaiting for an occasion to express the
extent of their despair over the state of their country… It was as though they
wanted to “commemorate” their suffering, when the mourners at the funeral
procession cried out, spontaneously, the song from the opening credits of his TV
series Big Dream: “Everything shriveled… shriveled until it was gone”.
Iraqi judiciary’s credibility shaken by arrest warrant for
Trump
Hammam Latif/The Arab Weekly/January 09/2021
Baghdad – An Iraqi court issued an arrest warrant for outgoing US President
Donald Trump on Thursday as part of its proclaimed effort to “complete
investigations” into the assassination of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani and
deputy head of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis on
January 3, 2020.
The issuance of the formal and unenforceable warrant sparked a wave of mockery
in Iraqi political circles, which saw it as a fresh insult to the Iraqi
judiciary and evidence of its willingness to receive political orders, not only
from within Iraq but also from Iran. According to many, the issuance of this
warrant at a time when Iran and its sympathisers in Iraq are intensifying their
efforts to ratchet up rhetoric over the killing of Soleimani and Muhandis, shows
the Iraqi judiciary to have involved itself in pro-Iranian propaganda campaigns
and street processions extending from Tehran to Sana’a, Baghdad and Beirut.
In those capitals, on the occasion of the first anniversary of the killing of
Soleimani and the PMF leader, huge demonstrations were held, during which
pictures of the two killed men were raised and the usual slogans against the
United States and Israel were shouted.
Analysts said the propaganda campaigns were primarily aimed at followers more
than opponents, with the aim of appeasing symathisers and making up for the
inability to carry out threats made by Iran and its militias to inflict revenge
on the United States and Trump personally.
Since 2003, the Iraqi judiciary, with its lack of competencies, has found it
very difficult to perform its duties impartially and fairly as a result of the
nature of the existing political system and the figures that lead it.
Trump issued orders to kill Soleimani as the Quds Force chief was about to leave
Baghdad airport accompanied by the Iraqi militia commander in January 2020. The
operation was carried out with use of a drone that fired two missiles at the
cars carrying the two men, who were considered among the most dangerous top
Iranian agents in the region. The Iraqi judiciary came under great pressure in
the months that followed the operation to issue arrest warrants against local
and foreign figures. But it did not fulfill such demands which emanated from
Iran in the first place.
The Shia militias affiliated with Iran tried to find a way to convict Iraqi
Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who was head of the intelligence service when
the assassination of Soleimani and Muhandis was carried out.
With the first anniversary of the deaths of Soleimani and Muhandis, the Shia
militias searched for any semblance of victory, especially after talking a lot
about earth-shattering revenge operations, but nothing happened.
On Thursday, Iraq’s judicial authority announced that the Investigation Court in
the Rusafa district of Baghdad issued an arrest warrant for Trump, ”after
recording the statements of the personal claimants on the morning of January 7,
2021, and completion of the preliminary investigation procedures, the competent
judge in the Rusafa investigation court who is in charge of the investigation
about the assassination of the deputy head of the Popular Mobilisation Forces
Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis and his companions.”The arrest warrant was based on the
provisions of Article 406 of the Iraqi Penal Code, which stipulates that a
premeditated murderer is punishable by death. The court said that the
investigation procedures will continue “to identify other participants in the
execution of this crime, whether Iraqis or foreigners,” clearly indicating that
local figures could be indicted in the same case.
Iran’s followers in Iraq praised the judicial decision as “a victory for the
will of the masses.”The head of the Islamic Supreme Council, Hamam Hamoudi,
“blessed” the Iraqi judiciary for its “fair and courageous decision to issue an
arrest warrant for the accused Donald Trump, against the background of his
terrorist crime” and assassination of what he described as “the martyred leaders
of victory, Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis and Qassem Soleimani and their companions.” He
lauded the “efforts of the President and leaders of Al-Fateh Alliance in this
regard, and the follow-up and determination they have shown, for the issuance of
a judicial decision incriminating those accused of the crime.”
The last phrase was an explicit admission of political and militia pressures on
the judiciary to issue the arrest warrant for Trump. The Iraqi judiciary
realises that no one will take its orders to arrest Trump seriously, but the
Shia militias are likely to use this decision to justify any aggressive acts
against everything American in Iraq. Observers say that the Iraqi judiciary
tried to avoid the farce of the arrest warrant by stalling for months, but it
could not continue to resist Iranian pressure, which reportedly reached the
point of death threats. Nevertheless, the Iraqi judiciary is still resisting
Iranian pressure to issue controversial arrest warrants against officers in the
intelligence services accused of colluding with the United States in
facilitating the assassination of Soleimani and Muhandis.
There’s no great rush for a JCPOA 2
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/January 09/2021
In the Middle East, the first half of 2021 is promising to be busy for the Biden
administration. The new White House must navigate the complex regional and
geopolitical mazes inherited from the previous administration’s patchwork
transactionalism and unilateralism that intensified the crises now threatening
to further destabilize the region.
Conventional US wisdom that foreign affairs take a back seat in favor of urgent
needs at home will simply not suffice. Four years of inattention have weakened
the multilateral frameworks that the US must rely on to broker desperately
needed resolutions in the Middle East and elsewhere. Restoring faith and trust
in multilateralism will go a long way to securing US foreign policy objectives —
particularly those focused on nuclear diplomacy with Iran.
The Biden administration’s plans for a nuclear deal with Iran have divided
analysts and stakeholders alike. Three schools of thought have emerged: A return
to the original 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an amended “JCPOA-plus,”
or an entirely new agreement. Of the original P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the
UK and the US, plus Germany), the Europeans have indicated support for a return
to the 2015 deal as a starting point to resume diplomatic engagement. Biden has
signaled he will seek amendments to the 2015 deal aimed at curbing Tehran's
ballistic missiles programs and regional adventurism, echoing concerns from
Washington's Gulf Arab allies. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is
calling for an entirely new agreement, specifically to prevent Iran reaching
sufficient capacity to produce enough highly enriched uranium using its gas
centrifuges.
The landscape in 2015 was vastly different, and the circumstances that led to
the original JCPOA no longer apply. There were no Abraham Accords to dissuade
Israeli missile strikes against Iranian targets; reprisals by Tehran would hit
nations that have normalized relations with Israel. Russia and China were not as
close to Tehran as they are now, and neither country has signaled its support
(or lack thereof) for the incoming administration’s plans to revitalize nuclear
talks. Moscow and Beijing are now more likely to weigh their own interests
against those of a multilateral coalition, given their deeper ties to Iran.
Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear program has continued apace even under sanctions,
rendering them useless as leverage in any renewed discussions. Even with a
moderate leadership, Iran is estimated to have amassed more than 2.5 tons of
highly enriched uranium. In addition, Washington walking away from the 2015 deal
has emboldened denials and lack of transparency regarding newly built nuclear
research facilities.
Iran’s nuclear program has continued apace even under sanctions, rendering them
useless as leverage in any renewed discussions.
Any new deal will seek greater access to such facilities, halving the quantity
of uranium and limiting enrichment to 20 percent, but there is little chance a
government led by hardliners will agree to such terms. A presidential election
looms in 2021 and should Iran’s hardliners gain more power and influence, Tehran
will push for harder bargains such as restoring access to some frozen overseas
assets in return for scaling down its nuclear ambitions.
Unfortunately, allowing access to those funds risks directing them toward
missile programs in Lebanon and Syria, especially if Washington addresses
Tehran's regional adventurism. Iran will definitely be pressured if the US
offers generous backing of the Iraqi government and military conditional on
weeding out Iranian influence. Additionally, the Abraham Accords offer an avenue
for the development of regional missile defense infrastructure to counter
Iranian missiles launches from Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
Overall, while the circumstances, stakes and potential signatories have changed,
there is still room for the Biden administration to engineer a new nuclear deal
that may or may not look like its 2015 predecessor. However, while the prospect
of an Iranian hardliner winning in June 2021 is concerning, the US still has
some room and leverage to maneuver, and should therefore not rush into another
hasty deal. Instead, there could be a series of interim, short-term agreements,
narrow in scope and less time-consuming to negotiate, so as to allow for
confidence-building, set realistic expectations and encourage consultations
among allies.Alternatively, the Biden administration could choose to do nothing
for six months, to get the lay of the land after Iranians choose a new
president. That would afford more room to ramp up responses to domestic crises
such as the pandemic, economic stimulus and political polarization. After June,
the White House would have had time to consult with other signatories and
regional allies to develop a framework for incremental steps aimed at preserving
US leverage while incentivizing Iran to agree rather than reject terms.
On the other hand, six months is a lifetime in geopolitics and not doing
anything could further entrench non-cooperative attitudes and embolden
hardliners seeking to capitalize on a lull to shorten the timeline until Iran
develops its first nuclear warhead. So the White House must act quickly to set
the frameworks around an eventual deal, while also avoiding getting locked into
an over-ambitious timeline.
It will not be easy to navigate the ever-complex maze of nuclear diplomacy but,
unlike with North Korea, there is sufficient room and opportunity to arrive at a
mutually acceptable settlement.
*Hafed Al-Ghwell is a non-resident senior fellow with the Foreign Policy
Institute at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International
Studies.