English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 05/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news
 

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Bible Quotations For today

John the Baptist paves the way for Jesus Christ
Luke 03/01-20: Now in the fifteenth year of the rule of Tiberius Caesar, Pontius Pilate being ruler of Judaea, and Herod being king of Galilee, his brother Philip king of the country of Ituraea and Trachonitis, and Lysanias king of Abilene, When Annas and Caiaphas were high priests, the word of the Lord came to John, the son of Zacharias, in the waste land.  And he came into all the country round about Jordan, preaching baptism as a sign of forgiveness of sin for those whose hearts were changed.  As it says in the book of the words of Isaiah the prophet, The voice of one crying in the waste land, Make ready the way of the Lord, make his roads straight. Every valley will be lifted up, and all the mountains and hills made low, and the twisted will be made straight, and the rough ways smooth;  And all flesh will see the salvation of God.  So he said to the people who went out to him for baptism: You offspring of snakes, at whose word are you going in flight from the wrath to come?  Make clear by your acts that your hearts have been changed; and do not say to yourselves, We have Abraham for our father: for I say to you that God is able from these stones to make children of Abraham. And even now the axe is put to the root of the trees; and every tree which does not have good fruit will be cut down and put into the fire.  And the people put questions to him, saying, What have we to do?  And he made answer and said to them, He who has two coats, let him give to him who has not even one; and he who has food, let him do the same.  Then tax-farmers came to him for baptism and said to him, Master, what have we to do?  And he said to them, Do not make an attempt to get more money than the right amount.  And men of the army put questions to him, saying, And what have we to do? And he said to them, Do no violent acts to any man, and do not take anything without right, and let your payment be enough for you.  And while the people were waiting, and all men were questioning in their hearts about John, if he was the Christ or not,  John made answer, saying to them all, Truly, I give you baptism with water, but one is coming who is greater than I, whose shoes I am not good enough to undo: he will give you baptism with the Holy Spirit, and with fire:  In whose hand is the instrument with which he will make clean his grain; he will put the good grain in his store, but the waste will be burned in the fire which will never be put out.  And so comforting them with these and other words, he gave the good news to the people;  But Herod the king, because John had made a protest on account of Herodias, his brother's wife, and other evil things which Herod had done, Did this most evil thing of all, and had John shut up in prison.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 04-05/2020

Renowned Maestro Elias Rahbani Dies of Covid-19
Aoun mourns late Rahbani: His music will prove that original art triumphs over death
Lebanon to Enforce General Lockdown from Thursday to February 1
Lebanon Gears for New Lockdown as Post-holiday Infections Surge
Diab: Strict Measures Must be Considered to Counter Virus
Lebanon's Legendary Musician Elias Rahbani Dies Aged 83
Geagea Lashes Out at Iranian Official’s Remarks
Israeli Warplanes Conduct Flights over Lebanon
Abdel Samad contacts Fahmi, Khalaf to follow-up on case of journalist Jeha
Truck owners block Baalbek-Homs international highway
US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
Iran warns: Lebanon, Gaza terror groups can ‘level Haifa, Tel Aviv to ground’
Will Hezbollah face continued pressure in 2021 in Europe?/Seth J. Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/January 04/2021
Lebanon, Iraq on edge as US-Iran tensions escalate one year on from Soleimani killing/Joseph Haboush/Al Arabiya English/Monday 04 January 2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 04-05/2020

U.S. Aircraft Carrier to Stay in Gulf, Says Pentagon
Wary of Iran threats, US keeps USS Nimitz in Gulf
U.S. 'Extremely Disappointed' in Assange Extradition Ruling
EU warns Iran uranium enrichment would threaten nuclear deal
Qatar's Emir to Attend Gulf Summit
Saudi Arabia to Open Airspace, Borders to Qatar
Iran Says it Resumes 20% Uranium Enrichment at Fordow Site
Iran Revolutionary Guards Seize South Korean-Flagged Tanker in Gulf, Seoul Demands Release
UAE deny reports of foiling terror attack in Dubai
Netanyahu: Israel Won't Allow Iran to Manufacture Nuclear Weapons
Seoul Sends Anti-Piracy Unit to Gulf over Oil Tanker Seizure by Iran
Arrested Palestinian DJ Freed on Bail
At Least 15 Killed in Syria Road Attack
 

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 04-05/2020

Donald Trump isn’t planning to attack Iran/Michael Rubin/AEI/January 04/2021
In Reversal, Pentagon Announces Aircraft Carrier Nimitz Will Remain in Middle East/Eric Schmitt/The New York Times/January 04/2021
Israel continues its campaign of targeting Iranian-affiliated sites in Syria/Joe.Truzman/FDD/January 04/2020
Arabs: An Extremely Important Voice for Peace/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/January 04/2021
Peace Agreements between Israel and Morocco: The Wisdom of a King/Pierre Rehov/Gatestone Institute/January 04/2021
On Normalization, Issues of Freedom and Democracy/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 04/2021
The ‘Crescent General’ and Regional Change/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 04/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 03-04/2020

Renowned Maestro Elias Rahbani Dies of Covid-19
Associated Press/January 04/2021
Renowned Lebanese lyrical author, composer, orchestra arranger and conductor Elias Rahbani passed away on Monday at the age of 82, his family said. Rahbani was hospitalized last week suffering low oxygen after he contracted the coronavirus and succumbed to COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus, on Monday. Born in 1938, in Antelias, Lebanon, he is the youngest and only brother to Assy and Mansour Rahbani, famously known as the Rahbani Brothers, and is likely the most prolific in terms of recordings. The three brothers were pioneers of a Lebanese golden age of music and culture, before the country was plunged into a lengthy civil war in the mid-1970s. Many Lebanese still start their day listening to their songs and see them as uniting figures, beloved across the country's divided political spectrum. Born into a musical family, Elias quickly forged a path for himself in the music industry. He often worked with his brothers but went on to compose his own songs for veteran Lebanese artists including Fairuz, Sabah, Melhem Barakat, Majida al-Roumi and others. Elias distinguished himself from his brothers, who were the industry's best known duo, with his more modern styles and mix of Middle Eastern and Western music that won him international awards. He wrote some of Fairuz's best hits, as well as the music and lyrics for many patriotic and songs. He also composed anthems for some Lebanese and Arab political parties. Rahbani composed hundreds of songs and music for the theater and the soundtracks to dozens of films and TV series, including "Habibati," or my Love, "The Night Player." He also composed the music for famous commercials. Elias was married to Nina Khalil and has two sons, Ghassan and Jad who both are also musicians. He also has a daughter, Elham. Several Lebanese politicians and artists mourned him on Monday, including Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri. “Elias Rahbani is another branch of the Rahbani tree who has fallen after a journey full of refined musical production. The warmest condolences to his wife, children and all his family and fans,” Hariri tweeted.

Aoun mourns late Rahbani: His music will prove that original art triumphs over death
NNA/January 04/2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, mourned the great artist, Elias Rahbani, the last giants of the Rahbani family, who wrote, with his two brothers Assi and Mansour, history before it happened, and was the main foundation in building Lebanon's artistic glory. President Aoun said: "This friend was the late artist, the master of reading in poetry as well as in melody, he married the Eastern spirit and Western techniques. He excelled in both, the East honored him with his elders, and the West distinguished him with his own languages. Today, he did not lose sight of us, but moved from the soil of Lebanon to embrace the eternity of a nation that he saw as the homeland of beauty and truth, and what he sang was nothing but a dream and "Gifts in boxes". The music and songs of the late great will continue to bear witness that only original art triumphs over death as he use to always say".-- Presidency Press Office
 

Lebanon to Enforce General Lockdown from Thursday to February 1
Agence France Presse/January 04/2021
Lebanon’s anti-coronavirus ministerial committee on Monday announced a general lockdown from Thursday, January 7 until February 1 with a 6pm-5am nighttime curfew. Speaking after the committee’s meeting, caretaker Health Minister Hamad Hassan warned that the coronavirus situation has reached a very dangerous level in the country in terms of hospitals’ capacity.He also said that those who breach the lockdown and safety measures will face legal prosecution. Caretaker Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi for his part confirmed that the odd-even regime for the movement of vehicles according to their license plates will be implemented, noting that an official statement about the lockdown exceptions will be issued on Tuesday morning. Restaurants will meanwhile be closed except for delivery services, media reports said. Al-Jadeed TV meanwhile reported that factories, ministries, printing houses, banks and state administrations will be exempted from the shutdown and will be allowed to operate at certain capacities while medical and journalistic crews and the armed forces will be exempted from the nighttime curfew. Below are the capacity levels allowed for some sectors according to al-Jadeed:
- Factories: 30%
- Ministries: 25%
- Printing houses: 30%
- Banks: 20%
- Public administrations: 25%
The authorities had eased measures in December but scenes of revelers thronging bars and clubs during the holiday season had left little doubt that fresh restrictions were on the way. Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, Lebanon has recorded more than 189,000 cases and around 1,500 deaths. A record 3,500 cases were reported on December 31. Health professionals have warned that the latest surge in cases risked causing a major catastrophe across Lebanon, which is already struggling with the aftermath of a devastating August explosion and its worst ever economic crisis.
"Over the past three weeks, the occupancy rate of intensive care units has increased by 10 percent," pushing the occupancy of hospital beds in Beirut to over 90 percent of capacity, Covid-19 taskforce head Petra Khoury said on Saturday.
 

Lebanon Gears for New Lockdown as Post-holiday Infections Surge
Associated Press/January 04/2021
Lebanese authorities are mulling on Monday for a new lockdown in the country after a surge in coronavirus cases mainly after the Christmas and New Year celebrations that saw a large part of Lebanese partying “irresponsibly.” The Ministerial committee tasked with following up on the pandemic, held a meeting at the Grand Serail and was supposed to take a decision on the starting date, and duration of the lockdown but a conflict in opinion between officials prompted another meeting in the afternoon. First responders say they have been transporting nearly 100 patients a day while hospitals report near-full occupancy in beds and ICUs. Nurses say they are overwhelmed, and private hospitals have been roped into the national response despite complaints that the cash-strapped government owes them large sums of outstanding debt. “We are facing a very critical phase and we need exceptional and firm measures as well as strict implementation,” caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab said at the start of a government meeting to discuss how to deal with the spreading virus. Caretaker PM Hassan Diab said a three-week lockdown is largely in place, and that a decision on the starting point and duration of the lockdown still has to be considered. Caretaker Health Minister Hamad Hassan said Lebanon will sign with Pfizer to get the COVID-19 vaccine which likely will arrive in Lebanon on February 4. Lebanon, a country of nearly 6 million, including 1 million refugees, has registered around 3,000 infections cases every day for the past week — nearly doubling the number from previous weeks. Since February, nearly 190,000 infections have been recorded and almost 1,500 deaths. The numbers began increasing this summer, following a massive explosion in Beirut’s port that shook the city and its heath sector, killing over 200 people and injuring 6,000. The infections following the August explosion increased by over 300% from the month before and have been climbing since. Despite a two-week lockdown in November, the numbers kept increasing — only worsening with the holiday seasons and the return of nearly 80,000 expats to celebrate at home. The holidays have also seen increased testing but reports suggested many of those were carried out to allow celebrations, only driving up infections. Lockdowns of towns and villages failed to contain new infections and fines for violators did not stop large New Year Eve’s gatherings. At one, a hotel hosted a famous Lebanese singer in an indoor party that included hundreds of people, raising criticism of lax penalty implementation. Many feared the figures may surpass 5,000 infections a day and have expressed fear of “the Italian scenario” — a reference to overloading the health sector with no ability to trace new cases. Lebanon is already struggling with an unprecedented economic crisis that has caused it to default on debt, and has sent its local currency plunging and losing 80% of its value to the dollar. That has severely curbed imports in the import-dependent countries, including of medicine and medical supplies. It has also driven inflation and unemployment up. Ahead of the holidays, Lebanese authorities relaxed restrictions, hoping to give the flailing economy a boost, particularly with thousands of expats in town. This sparked a debate over whether it is the government’s wavering policies or social laxness in implementing social distancing and others measures that is behind the surge.

Diab: Strict Measures Must be Considered to Counter Virus
Naharnet/January 04/2021
Caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab said on Monday that quick measures along with a lockdown must be imposed to contain the spread of the coronavirus. “The situation is completely different today. We have implemented all possible measures needed at the State level but people’s commitment was not positive. Unfortunately some people still don't see how dangerous this virus is,” said Diab during the ministerial committee meeting. “Confronting this epidemic cannot be implemented through theoretical measures and procedures on the street only. We can close the country, and we can impose a curfew, but we cannot have a policeman to follow every person,” said the PM. Diab said the imposition of a lockdown “is not enough, it must be paralleled with very quick steps to contain the situation. We have a very difficult situation ahead. Strict and exceptional measures must be taken,” he added.
Authorities in Lebanon are weighing the possibility of a total lockdown after a sharp increase in cases following the holidays.

Lebanon's Legendary Musician Elias Rahbani Dies Aged 83
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 04/2021
Elias al-Rahbani, who wrote songs for Lebanon’s most revered singer Fairouz among many others, died on Monday at the age of 83, local media reported. Elias was the youngest brother of celebrated musicians Mansour and Assi Rahbani, known together as the Rahbani brothers. Fairouz’s songs, written by the Rahbanis, were listened to across religious and factional divides throughout Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war and they continue to transcend divisions in Lebanon and beyond. “Another branch from the Rahbani tree falls after a journey full of refined music production,” Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri wrote on Twitter. The Rahbanis’ music and lyrics have drawn admiration from across the Arab world. In a career spanning almost six decades, Elias Rahbani wrote music for many famous Lebanese singers including the late Wadih al-Safi and Sabah. “Your departure takes with it a large part of the romanticism of our wounded country,” Lebanese singer Ragheb Alama said. The cause of Rahbani’s death has not yet been announced.

Geagea Lashes Out at Iranian Official’s Remarks
Naharnet/January 04/2021
Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea replied to the fresh remarks made by top Iranian official, asking why doesn't Iran “strike Israel directly,” instead of exploiting its proxies, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Monday. “I was personally surprised by his words, saying that Iran was ready to help anyone confront Israel! Why do they want to help everyone face Israel, why doesn’t the Iranian Revolutionary Guard confront it directly?” said Geagea. “Consequently, we see that Iran is using countries surrounding Israel, while making Iran immune to everything happening,” added Geagea. Iranian Brigadier General Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, the chief of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had told Hizbullah’s al-Manar TV on Saturday that “all the missile capabilities that Gaza and Lebanon possess were achieved through Iran’s support,” and that “they are the frontline for the confrontation” against Israel. On the other hand, Geagea highlighted the necessity to hold early parliamentary elections in order to change the current majority. He blamed the “alliance” between President Michel Aoun and Hizbullah for the current deterioration in the country. "The alliance of President Michel Aoun with Hizbullah has led the country to the current crisis. The solution lies in staging early polls to change the parliamentary majority," he said. Geagea stressed that the LF would only carry arms if the military and security forces collapsed.

Israeli Warplanes Conduct Flights over Lebanon
Naharnet/January 04/2021
Israeli warplanes conducted heavy overflights on Monday flying at low and medium-altitudes over several Lebanese regions, the National News Agency reported. The warplanes flew over Beirut, the southern city of Sidon, Aramoun, Bshamoun, Choueifat, Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun, Jezzine, al-Zahrani and over the locality of Upper Keserwan, said NNA. On Sunday, Israel conducted similar flights over Lebanon.

Abdel Samad contacts Fahmi, Khalaf to follow-up on case of journalist Jeha
NNA/January 04/2021
Caretaker Minister of Information, Dr. Manal Abdel Samad Najd, on Monday followed up on the case of journalist, Clara Jeha, and her husband, lawyer Jimmy Hadchiti, by conducting a series of contacts, most notably with Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Mohammad Fahmy, and Beirut Bar Association Head, Melhem Khalaf. Abdel Abdel Samad also contacted Jeha by phone for more details on the assault she had been subjected to earlier on Monday. The Minister expressed her full solidarity with Jeha on the humanitarian level, especially since the incident took place in presence of the latter’s two children.

Truck owners block Baalbek-Homs international highway
NNA/January 04/2021
A number of truck owners on Monday blocked Baalbek-Homs International Highway in Tal al-Abyad locality at the northern entrance of Baalbek city against the backdrop army security measures to prevent smuggling, NNA reporter said. “Consequently the army force came to the locality and reopened the road,” NNA reporter added.

US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
NNA/January 04/2021
The Money Changers Syndicate announced in a statement addressed to money changing companies and institutions Monday’s USD exchange rate against the Lebanese pound as follows:
Buying price at a minimum of LBP 3850
Selling price at a maximum of LBP 3900

Iran warns: Lebanon, Gaza terror groups can ‘level Haifa, Tel Aviv to ground’
The Times Of Israel/January 04/2021
Revolutionary Guards’ commander says proxies ready for ‘confrontation,’ with their missile capabilities supported by Tehran
A top Iranian commander said Saturday that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had given an order for Tehran-backed terror groups to destroy Haifa and Tel Aviv if “any foolishness is committed against Iran,” warning that the Islamic Republic has been working for years on developing the capabilities of its proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. “We teach the Resistance Front to make fishing rods, instead of providing fish, and Lebanon and Gaza possess the technology to manufacture missiles,” Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ Aerospace Force told the state-run Al-Manar TV channel.
“All the missile capabilities of Gaza and Lebanon have been supported by Iran, and they are the front line for confrontation,” he said. Noting that “the capabilities of the resistance axis” are much advanced from what they were ten years ago Hajizadeh said, “today, the Palestinians fire rockets instead of throwing stones.”“We have a general order from the guide, Ali Khamenei, to level Haifa and Tel Aviv to the ground, in case any foolishness is committed against Iran, and we have worked over the past years to be able to do so,” he said. Iran provides support to Hamas and more direct backing to Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, all of which are sworn to Israel’s destruction. Haifa and Tel Aviv have been threatened in the past by both Iran and Hezbollah. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah recently suggested striking Haifa’s stores of ammonium nitrate, a highly explosive fertilizer that fueled the deadly Beirut port blast in August that killed 193 people and wounded 6,500 others. The comments came as the Israeli military is preparing for the possibility of a strike by Iran-backed militias in Iraq or Yemen, according to a Friday report. The Israel Defense Forces held discussions last week about possible attacks, including missile and drone strikes, from the Iraqi militias and Houthi groups in Yemen, the Kan public broadcaster reported. Iran on Sunday marked one year since the death of General Qassem Soleimani in an American drone strike in Baghdad, amid fears in Washington that Tehran could retaliate for the killing on the anniversary. US officials have expressed concern that Iran may be planning attacks against US-allied targets in neighboring Iraq or elsewhere in the region to coincide with the date. In recent weeks the US military has taken a range of steps designed to deter Iran, while publicly emphasizing that it is not planning, and has not been instructed, to take unprovoked action against Iran. US President Donald Trump has warned Iran against any attack, and the US has flown strategic bombers over the Persian Gulf in a show of force meant to deter Iran from attacking American or allied targets in the Middle East. A US nuclear submarine crossed the Strait of Hormuz and an Israeli submarine reportedly openly crossed the Suez Canal in a show of force directed at Iran a few days earlier. Iranian officials have issued a stream of threats against the US and Israel as the anniversary of Soleimani’s death approached, while accusing Trump of seeking a “pretext” for war. The US killed Soleimani, who oversaw the Revolutionary Guard’s expeditionary Quds Force, and others in the January 3, 2020, strike near Baghdad International Airport. It came after months of incidents raising tensions between the two countries and ultimately saw Iran retaliate with a ballistic missile strike targeting American troops in Iraq. Iran has also threatened to attack Israel since the assassination of its top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, in late November, in a raid blamed on the Jewish state. Israel has long been suspected of carrying out a series of targeted killings of Iranian nuclear scientists nearly a decade ago, in a bid to curtail Iran’s nuclear program.

Will Hezbollah face continued pressure in 2021 in Europe?
Seth J. Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/January 04/2021
Five European countries have thus taken measures against Hezbollah.
Hezbollah has suffered devastating blows in the past year and could be further pressured in 2021, a study by Al-Ain media that goes against the conventional wisdom asserts. Many have been predicting that a new US administration will relax sanctions on Iran, enabling Tehran to pour millions into Hezbollah’s coffers, after the Islamic Republic has been struggling to pay terrorist salaries over the past year, due in part to the Trump administration’s sanctions. Hezbollah has sucked Lebanon dry in terms of resources, pouring money into missiles and bunkers while the country sinks into multi-billion dollar debt.
Iran’s goal in Lebanon – as in Iraq, Syria and Yemen – is to make the countries dependent on Tehran. Iran and its proxies never build institutions like universities; instead they make sure that the economy shifts to Tehran, with countries like Iraq now dependent on Iran for refining capability and electricity.
Like the Soviets stripping factories and sending their parts to the east, the Iranian proxies strip countries of their economy and also send it east. The ruination of Iraq and Lebanon, held hostage by Hezbollah, is evidence of this. But, bucking this trend, Al-Ain thinks Hezbollah could be facing real pressure this year following new rulings in Europe. The year was disastrous for the terrorist group, “as it suffered devastating blows in several European countries that oscillated between bans and strong sanctions,” the article notes. “These steps pave the way for stronger measures in 2021, which put the future of the Lebanese militia in the old continent on the line.”
Berlin banned Hezbollah in April, striking a “severe blow to the terrorist militia that relies on Germany to collect donations to finance its criminal activities,” the article notes. “Four months after this date, and specifically last August, Lithuania banned Hezbollah members from entering its territory for 10 years, in a move to contain the threat of the Lebanese militia.” The article also notes that Estonia has moved against the group, “imposing a ban on entering the country on members of Hezbollah, who belong to its military and political wings, and imposes sanctions on certain leaders of the organization, which are expected to be named during the coming period.” Slovenia has also acted against Hezbollah, accusing it of “links to organized crime and terrorism, and military activities at the global level.” Latvia also designated it a terror group in December. Five European countries have thus far taken measures against the group, many of them in 2020.
“The number of European countries that completely ban the Lebanese militia in Europe has increased to six countries,” Al-Ain notes. The media organization also predicts that Switzerland and Austria could “take strong measures against Hezbollah.

”SWITZERLAND IS seeking to investigate whether Hezbollah is also active there, “and to prepare a comprehensive report on the status of the organization and its branches and activities in the country.” Concerns in Switzerland also relate to the group using bank accounts in the country. The newspaper Luzerner Zeitung claimed that “Hezbollah maintains a network in Europe and also in Switzerland capable of supporting terrorist acts and activities.”Austrian media outlets believe the Austrian government will make a decision to ban Hezbollah in the coming months, especially in light of the authorities recent launching of a strong campaign against terrorist organizations, including the Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Ain says. All of this is building momentum against the group. Hezbollah illegally holds 150,000 rockets in Lebanon and has a global network of money laundering, terrorist entities and involvement in drug trafficking from South America to Africa and Europe. In the past, Tehran was able to influence Washington to go soft on Hezbollah in order to get the Iran deal, judging that the US would do everything to get a deal done. Al-Ain’s report says that there is momentum across Europe building against Hezbollah. This could see the group added to a continent-wide terror list. However, it is not clear if powerhouses like Germany or France will agree. France has appeared to be willing to work with Hezbollah in Lebanon, pretending its “political” wing is different from its “armed” wing. Germany’s Angela Merkel has been accused of being soft on extremist groups operating in the country, but she is expected to be leaving office after being in power for two decades. There are also questions about how a new US administration will behave toward the group. Al-Ain media points out that European Parliament Vice President Nicola Beer and others have been good on this issue, “leading a campaign against Hezbollah at the European level.” These voices have argued that Germany’s ban on Hezbollah is a long-awaited step, which must now be followed quickly, with a complete ban on the party’s activities in the entire union.
 

Lebanon, Iraq on edge as US-Iran tensions escalate one year on from Soleimani killing
Joseph Haboush/Al Arabiya English/Monday 04 January 2021
One year ago today, a US drone strike inside Iraq killed one of Iran’s most powerful military officials, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Qassem Soleimani, in what Washington said was a response to increased attacks on its interests in the region. American embassies and forces have been on high alert in the weeks leading up to the one-year anniversary of the strike that killed Soleimani and deputy commander of the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) in Iraq.
Meanwhile, Iran and its regional proxies have upped their rhetoric and threats against any military action that US President Donald Trump might order in the waning days of his presidency. Posters of the two slain commanders were plastered over the southern suburbs of Beirut as pictures of the two men were waved throughout Iraq at the weekend.
Statues and memorials were erected in various parts of the two countries as well. Countries in the region where Iran has a heavy foothold, including Lebanon and Iraq, now look on in despair. In a no holds barred approach, the US announced late Sunday a reversal of its decision to withdraw the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz from the Arabian Gulf. Washington’s B-52 bombers have made multiple overflights in the region in recent weeks as well in a bid to deter Iran from any potential attacks. Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraq’s PMU repeatedly state their readiness to defend Iranian interests in the face of what they say are US threats. “This place [Lebanon] is in shambles, there is no state here and there is not much we can do to stop any potential fighting from breaking out between the US and Iran on our land,” a senior Lebanese official source recently told Al Arabiya English. Over the weekend, Hezbollah fighters donned their Battle Dress Uniforms during a ceremony held in south Lebanon near the border with Israel to commemorate Soleimani and al-Muhandis. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, spoke of Iran’s military readiness to respond to the US “whenever it deems proper.”He was also forced to play down comments made by a senior IRGC figure, after the latter’s remarks were indirectly criticized by Lebanon’s president and more bluntly by several Lebanese politicians. Speaking to Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV station, the IRGC official said that missiles in Lebanon were part of Iran’s conflict with Israel and that Lebanon’s strength was a result of Iran’s support. Shortly after, Lebanese President Michel Aoun tweeted that the Lebanese people have no partner in maintaining their independence. Aoun added that no one was a partner in ensuring Lebanon’s sovereignty “on its borders, its land and freedom in decision-making.”The president did not specify who or what he was responding to. The Iranian general, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, also threatened Gulf nations who “[support] Israel,” that they would not be outside the scope of “repercussions” of any potential US attack on Iran. Gulf states, led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, made history late last year after normalizing ties with Tel Aviv. Sudan and Morocco followed suit. The moves were heavily criticized by Iran, which claims to be a proponent of defending Palestine’s right to an independent state. But during his televised speech on Sunday, Nasrallah claimed that Lebanese media outlets incorrectly paraphrased Hajizadeh’s comments and alleged that Washington was paying Lebanese outlets to air anti-Hezbollah content. Nasrallah did not clarify or refer to Hajizadeh’s threats against Gulf nations.
The view from Iraq
In Iraq, thousands of people marched in support of Iran and its proxies, demanding a withdrawal of US troops from the country. The march was organized by the PMU. With the tit-for-tat public comments increasing, Lebanon and Iraq continue to patiently standby, hoping there is no escalation. Lebanon is already facing an unprecedented economic and financial crisis, which has been exasperated by anti-government protests, the coronavirus pandemic, and the deadly August 4 Beirut blast. The security situation is one of the few elements still intact in the country. In Iraq, the economic situation is not much better. Baghdad’s leadership last month devalued the national currency amid a dip in oil prices that hit the country’s vital oil revenues hard. And, ahead of the January 4 anniversary of Soleimani’s killing, Iraq’s military released a statement demanding respect for its sovereignty from Washington and Tehran. The Lebanese official source was pessimistic that tensions would defuse with a new US administration under President-elect Joe Biden, who is set to take office January 20. Biden is expected to take a more diplomatic approach vis-a-vis Iran, in contrast to Trump’s maximum-pressure campaign. Some hope that Biden’s foreign policy will lead to an easing of tensions. A senior Western diplomat, speaking to Al Arabiya English on condition of anonymity, echoed the pessimistic tone of things to come for Lebanon, specifically. “But this isn’t the fault of the US or of Europe – Lebanese officials don’t want to implement reform and they try to blame everything on sanctions and the US-Iran tensions,” the diplomat said. As for Iraq, a Western intelligence source said the Iranian-backed forces were so entrenched in state institutions and decision-making that little could be done without violence in the face of Iran, which is something all sides want to avoid. “This situation is going to drag on and although the status-quo is not ideal, the situation is boiling and could explode at any given moment,” the source said.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 04-05/2020

U.S. Aircraft Carrier to Stay in Gulf, Says Pentagon
Agence France Presse/January 04/2021
The U.S. reversed a decision to bring an aircraft carrier home from the Gulf Sunday, with the Pentagon saying that due to "recent threats" by Iran the USS Nimitz would stay in position. The Nimitz has been patrolling Gulf waters since late November, but in a statement issued on December 31, acting US defense secretary Christopher C. Miller ordered the vessel to "transit directly home to complete a nearly 10-month deployment." The New York Times, quoting U.S. officials, said this move was part of a "de-escalatory" signal to Tehran to avoid a conflict in President Donald Trump's last days in office. However, Miller issued a new statement changing course on Sunday. "Due to the recent threats issued by Iranian leaders against President Trump and other U.S. government officials, I have ordered the USS Nimitz to halt its routine redeployment," he said. "The USS Nimitz will now remain on station in the U.S. Central Command area of operations. No one should doubt the resolve of the United States of America." He did not elaborate on the threats involved. His statement came one year after a US drone strike in Baghdad killed Iran's revered commander Qasem Soleimani and his Iraqi lieutenant Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
Thousands of Iraqi mourners chanted "revenge" and "no to America" on Sunday. The anniversary of the Baghdad drone strike was also marked in recent days across Iran and by supporters in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere. Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from a landmark nuclear deal with Iran and world powers in 2018 and launched a "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran, reimposing and reinforcing crippling sanctions. The two countries have twice come to the brink of war since June 2019, especially following the killing of Soleimani. Days after the Soleimani assassination, Iran launched a volley of missiles at Iraqi bases housing U.S. and other coalition troops, with Trump refraining from any further military response.'

Wary of Iran threats, US keeps USS Nimitz in Gulf
The Arab Weekly/January 04/2021
WASHINGTON--The US aircraft carrier USS Nimitz will remain in the Gulf due to “recent threats” by Iran, the Pentagon said Sunday, following reports the ship was returning home in what some read as a sign of de-escalation. The Nimitz has been patrolling Gulf waters since late November, but American media said this week that the acting US defense secretary, Christopher C. Miller, had ordered the vessel to return home. The New York Times, quoting US officials, said this move was part of a “de-escalatory” signal to Tehran to avoid a conflict in President Donald Trump’s last days in office. However, Miller issued a statement to the contrary late Sunday. “Due to the recent threats issued by Iranian leaders against President Trump and other U.S. government officials, I have ordered the USS Nimitz to halt its routine redeployment,” he said. “The USS Nimitz will now remain on station in the U.S. Central Command area of operations. No one should doubt the resolve of the United States of America.” His statement came one year after a US drone strike in Baghdad killed Iran’s revered commander Qasem Soleimani and his Iraqi lieutenant Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Thousands of Iraqi mourners chanted “revenge” and “no to America” on Sunday. The anniversary of the Baghdad drone strike was also marked in recent days across Iran and by supporters in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere. Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from a landmark nuclear deal with Iran and world powers in 2018 and launched a “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, reimposing and reinforcing crippling sanctions. The two countries have twice come to the brink of war since June 2019, especially following the killing of Soleimani.Days after the Soleimani assassination, Iran launched a volley of missiles at Iraqi bases housing US and other coalition troops, with Trump refraining from any further military response.
 

U.S. 'Extremely Disappointed' in Assange Extradition Ruling
Agence France Presse/January 04/2021
The U.S. Justice Department said Monday that it was "extremely disappointed" in a British judge's decision not to extradite WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to the United States to face trial for publishing U.S. secrets. "While we are extremely disappointed in the court's ultimate decision, we are gratified that the United States prevailed on every point of law raised," the department said, pointing to Assange's claims he had been exercising free speech rights and that the U.S. was pursuing a political vendetta."We will continue to seek Mr. Assange's extradition to the United States," the department said.

EU warns Iran uranium enrichment would threaten nuclear deal
NNA/AFP/January 04/2021
The European Union warned on Monday that Iran’s move to enrich uranium to 20 per cent would be a “considerable departure” from Tehran’s commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal. EU spokesman Peter Stano said Brussels would wait until a briefing from the director of the UN’s IAEA nuclear watchdog later in the day before deciding what action to take. Earlier, an Iranian government spokesman said the Shahid Alimohammadi enrichment complex in Fordow had begun the “process for producing” uranium enriched to 20 percent. That would be well above the 3.67 percent cap set in the deal, known as the JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. “If this announcement is going to be implemented... it would constitute a considerable departure from Iran’s nuclear commitments under the JCPOA,” Stano told reporters. This would have “serious nuclear non-proliferation implications”. Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to curtail its nuclear program to levels well under the capacity to build atomic bombs in return for sanctions relief from the international parties to the accord. The United States has dropped out of the agreement, but the EU and the other signatories — France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China — have kept it alive. A spokesman for the IAEA in Vienna told AFP the agency had been monitoring activity at Fordow and that Director General Rafael Grossi would submit a report to IAEA member states later on Monday. Stano said Brussels would await that briefing before deciding what action to take. “The IAEA is the recognised independent monitoring and verification authority for Iran’s nuclear programme. And on its assessments, we are basing our decisions and our actions,” he said.

Qatar's Emir to Attend Gulf Summit
Agence France Presse/January 04/2021
Qatar said Monday its ruler would attend a summit of regional leaders, marking a breakthrough in the Gulf crisis which has pitted Doha against a Saudi-led group of countries since 2017. "The Emir of the country is heading the delegation of the State of Qatar to participate in the meeting of the... Gulf Cooperation Council" that starts on Tuesday, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani's office said in a statement.
 

Saudi Arabia to Open Airspace, Borders to Qatar
Agence France Presse/January 04/2021
Saudi Arabia will reopen its borders and airspace to Qatar, the Kuwaiti foreign minister said Monday, more than three years after Riyadh sealed both and led an alliance to isolate Doha. "Based on (Kuwait's ruler Emir) Sheikh Nawaf's proposal, it was agreed to open the airspace and land and sea borders between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the State of Qatar, starting from this evening," said Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Ahmad Nasser Al-Sabah on state TV. The bombshell announcement came on the eve of a six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) annual summit in the northwestern Saudi Arabian city of Al-Ula, at which the dispute was already set to top the agenda. Riyadh led a coalition of countries in the Gulf and beyond that cut ties with Doha, charging that it was too close to Tehran and backed radical Islamist groups -- allegations that Qatar has always denied.
Washington has intensified pressure for a resolution to what Doha calls a "blockade", insisting Gulf unity is necessary to isolate U.S. nemesis Iran as the curtain falls on Donald Trump's presidency. Many eyes have been on whether Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani -- who has skipped the annual GCC gatherings since 2017 -- attends this time around. The GCC is a bloc that consists of boycotting countries Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, neutral Kuwait and Oman, and Qatar. The Saudi-led GCC hawks, along with Egypt, in June 2017 closed airspace to Qatari planes, sealed borders and ports, and expelled Qatari citizens.
 

Iran Says it Resumes 20% Uranium Enrichment at Fordow Site
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 04/2021
Iran has resumed 20% uranium enrichment at its underground Fordow nuclear facility, the government spokesman told the semi-official Mehr news agency on Monday, a level of purity that is not allowed under Tehran's 2015 nuclear pact with six major powers. The move is the latest of several recent Iranian breaches of the deal, which it started violating in 2019 in retaliation for Washington's withdrawal from the agreement and the reimposition of US sanctions against Tehran. "A few minutes ago, the process of producing 20% enriched uranium has started in Fordow enrichment complex," Ali Rabeie told Mehr. On Jan 1, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Tehran had told the watchdog it planned to resume enrichment up to 20% at Fordow site, which is buried inside a mountain. Monday’s move comes amid heightened tensions between Iran and the US in the waning days of the administration of President Donald Trump, who unilaterally withdrew America from Tehran’s nuclear deal in 2018. That set in motion an escalating series of incidents capped by a US drone strike that killed a top Iranian general in Baghdad a year ago. Iran's decision to begin enriching to 20% a decade ago nearly brought an Israeli strike targeting its nuclear facilities, tensions that only abated with the 20

Iran Revolutionary Guards Seize South Korean-Flagged Tanker in Gulf, Seoul Demands Release
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 04/2021
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps seized a South Korean-flagged tanker in Gulf waters and detained its crew, Iranian media said on Monday, amid tensions between Tehran and Seoul over Iranian funds frozen in South Korean banks due to US sanctions. Seoul confirmed the seizure of a South Korean chemical tanker by Iranian authorities in the waters off Oman, and demanded its immediate release. Several Iranian media outlets, including state TV, said the Guards navy captured the vessel for polluting the Gulf with chemicals. “According to initial reports by local officials, it is purely a technical matter and the ship was taken to shore for polluting the sea,” state television quoted Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh as saying. The semi-official Tasnim news agency published pictures showing the Guards’ speed boats escorting the tanker HANKUK CHEMI, which it said was carrying 7,200 tons of ethanol. It said the vessel’s detained crew members included nationals of South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam and Myanmar. Iran’s state TV said the tanker was being held at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port city. The ship had 20 crew members, according to South Korea’s foreign ministry. The US Navy’s Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet is aware of the incident and is monitoring the situation, spokeswoman Rebecca Rebarich said in response to a Reuters query. The incident comes ahead of an expected visit by South Korea’s deputy foreign minister to Tehran. Khatibzadeh said the visit would happen in coming days, during which officials would discuss Iran’s demand that South Korea release $7 billion in funds frozen in South Korean banks because of US sanctions. The United States re-imposed sanctions on Iran in 2018 after Washington withdrew from Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with six major powers. Under that deal, Iran had agreed to curb its nuclear work in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Iran has retaliated by bypassing the restrictions of the deal step-by-step. In a move that could complicate efforts by US President-elect Joe Biden to rejoin the deal, Tehran said on Monday it had resumed 20% uranium enrichment at its underground Fordow nuclear facility. In early 2019, Iran jacked up tensions in the world’s busiest oil waterway by seizing British-flagged tanker Stena Impero, two weeks after a British warship had intercepted an Iranian tanker off the coast of Gibraltar.

UAE deny reports of foiling terror attack in Dubai
The Jerusalem Post/January 04/2021
Emirati intelligence reportedly arrested Iranians who were suspected of plotting to carry out terrorist attacks against Israelis, though the UAE has said this was "wholly false."The United Arab Emirates denied having ever foiled an attempted terrorist attack in Dubai, despite multiple media reporters circulating earlier in the day. In an official statement, the UAE government dubbed the rumors "wholly false." As mentioned in these earlier reports, Emirati intelligence reportedly arrested Iranians who were suspected of plotting to carry out terrorist attacks against Israelis, as the UAE has become one of Israel's hottest new tourist destinations following the recent normalization of ties between the two countries. Said attack reportedly was meant to coincide with the anniversary of the assassination of IRGC Quds Force head Qassem Soleimani. While this may not have been the case, the IDF and other security officials are on high alert of a potential Iranian reprisal attack to coincide with the anniversary of Soleimani's death, though such an attack has yet to occur.

Netanyahu: Israel Won't Allow Iran to Manufacture Nuclear Weapons
Agence France Presse/January 04/2021
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that arch foe Iran's renewal of uranium enrichment proves that it is seeking to build nuclear arms despite its denials. State media in the Islamic republic said Monday it had started the process of enriching uranium to 20 percent purity at its Fordow facility, going well beyond the threshold set by the 2015 nuclear deal. Netanyahu said in a statement that the move "cannot be explained in any way except as the continued realization of its intention to develop a military nuclear program." "Israel will not allow Iran to manufacture nuclear weapons," he added. Israel, widely believed to be the only nuclear-armed country in the Middle East, has long asserted that Tehran is trying to acquire its own nuclear arsenal and that it seeks the destruction of Israel. Netanyahu argued long and fiercely against the 2015 deal between Iran and world powers for the lifting of international sanctions in return for it freezing what it says is a peaceful nuclear program. But in 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the agreement and reimposed sanctions, prompting Iran to roll back its own commitments.

Seoul Sends Anti-Piracy Unit to Gulf over Oil Tanker Seizure by Iran
Agence France Presse/January 04/2021
Iran said Monday its Revolutionary Guards had seized a South Korean-flagged tanker in Gulf waters for breaking "environmental laws," at a time of heightened tensions with the United States. Seoul demanded the release of the Hankuk Chemi and its multinational crew of 20 and deployed its military's anti-piracy unit to the area close to the strategic Straits of Hormuz. The Guards said on their Sepahnews website that the ship carrying 7,200 tons of oil chemical products "was seized by our force's (navy) this morning." "This tanker was headed from Saudi Arabia's Al Jubail port and was seized due to the repeated infringement of maritime environmental laws," it added. The seizure came days before South Korea's deputy foreign minister was due to visit Tehran according to Iran's foreign ministry, as Iran wants South Korea to release billions in its assets held as a result of U.S. sanctions. It also follows days of high U.S.-Iranian tensions and came on the day Iran said it had started the process to enrich uranium to 20 percent purity, a move which drew swift international concern. The previous day marked the first anniversary of the U.S. assassination of Iran's revered military commander Major General Qasem Soleimani in a Baghdad drone strike. The United States Sunday reversed a decision to bring the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz home from the Gulf, with the Pentagon citing "recent threats" by the Islamic Republic.
'Framework of law'
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said in a statement the tanker's seizure was over a "purely technical issue and due to polluting the sea.""Just like other countries, Iran is sensitive towards such infractions, especially polluting the maritime environment, and therefore confronts it in the framework of law."The Guards said the arrested crew were from South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam and Myanmar. A photo released by Sephanews appeared to show three speedboats and a patrol boat approaching the tanker. The seizure had come at the request of Hormozgan Province's maritime organization and upon the order of the provincial prosecutor, Sepahnews said. The Guards' statement did not specify where the tanker was seized but said it was transferred to Bandar Abbas port in Hormozgan with the "case handed to judicial authorities". The deputy head of Hormozgan's maritime body told Tasnim news agency that the tanker had "caused a large sea pollution 11 miles away of Greater Tunb" island. It had continued on its path despite warnings by passing Guards' patrols before being seized. The ship's operator DM Shipping denied that the vessel had polluted waters, Yonhap news agency reported. South Korea's foreign ministry said it was "demanding an early release of the vessel," and that it had confirmed the safety of the crew. Seoul's defense ministry said it had dispatched its anti-piracy Cheonghae unit to waters near the Strait of Hormuz.
Frozen assets
Shortly before news of the ship's seizure, Khatibzadeh said in a press conference that Tehran was expecting a visit "in the coming days" by South Korea's deputy foreign minister. The spokesman complained about the "slow" process of unfreezing funds from the Islamic republic's oil money, blocked by Seoul due to fear of violating US sanctions. According to Iran's central bank governor Abdolnasser Hemmati, the country has "$7 billion of deposits in South Korea" that can neither "be transferred nor do we get any returns on, while they ask us for the costs" of holding the funds.
The incident was the first seizure of a major vessel by the Iranian navy in more than a year. In July 2019, the Guards seized the British-flagged oil tanker Stena Impero in the sensitive Strait of Hormuz for allegedly ramming a fishing boat and released it two months later. It was at the time widely seen as a tit-for-tat move after authorities in the British overseas territory of Gibraltar detained an Iranian tanker and later released it over U.S. objections. Tehran denied the two cases were related. The Guards seized at least six other ships in 2019 over alleged fuel smuggling. Tensions have run high in the Gulf in recent years after the United States stepped up its campaign of "maximum pressure" on Iran following its 2018 withdrawal from the landmark nuclear deal. The escalation saw ships mysteriously attacked, drones downed and oil tankers seized in the strategic strait -- a chokepoint through which a fifth of world oil output passes.

Arrested Palestinian DJ Freed on Bail
Agence France Presse/January 04/2021
A prominent Palestinian disc jockey arrested after a dance event at a Muslim religious and cultural site last week has been freed on bail, her father said Monday.  Palestinian Authority police arrested Sama Abdulhadi, 30, on December 27, the day after she performed at Nebi Mussa, the burial place of Moses under Islamic tradition, near the city of Jericho. Initially denied bail, according to her parents, Palestinian rights groups demanded her freedom along with 100,000 signatories to an online petition. Her father, Saad Abdulhadi, told AFP that she was released Sunday evening after payment of a $3,500 guarantee to attend a future court hearing, whose date has yet to be fixed. She is banned from travelling in the meantime, he added. Sama Abdulhadi is considered by many to be the first Palestinian woman to have become a professional disc jockey and Israeli daily Haaretz has called her the "Palestinian Techno Queen". Video of the electronic music event posted on social media showed men and women dancing together at the gathering, sparking public anger and accusations of desecration of the site, where there is a mosque. At the request of Palestinian prime minister Mohammed Shtayyeh, a commission of enquiry was set up "to determine what happened at Nebi Mussa." Saad Abdulhadi said that his daughter had official permission to stage the event at Nebi Mussa, which is also a tourist site. He said that the police crackdown was ordered to placate conservative public opinion. "Unfortunately, the arrest of my daughter was decided to please the street," he said.

At Least 15 Killed in Syria Road Attack
Agence France Presse/January 04/2021
Gunmen killed at least 15 people in Syria, mostly government soldiers travelling on a bus in the second such road ambush in recent days, a war monitor said Monday. The ambush late Sunday resulted in the deaths of eight soldiers, four allied fighters and three civilians, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, updating an earlier toll. There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but the monitor said the Islamic State group was to blame. Another 15 people were wounded, with cars and fuel tankers also attacked, in the Wadi al-Azib area of Hama province. Syria's official news agency SANA said the "terrorist attack" killed nine people, all civilians. Last week, the IS group said it ambushed a bus on December 30 in Syria's eastern Deir Ezzor province, killing at least 37 soldiers. The extremist group overran large parts of Syria and Iraq and proclaimed a cross-border "caliphate" there in 2014, before multiple offensives in the two countries led to its territorial defeat. The group was overcome in Syria in March 2019, but sleeper cells continue to launch attacks. More than 387,000 people have been killed and millions forced from their homes since Syria's civil war broke out in 2011.
 

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 04-05/2020

Donald Trump isn’t planning to attack Iran
Michael Rubin/AEI/January 04/2021
Speculation about the possibility of a U.S attack on Iran has reached a fever pitch as President Donald Trump’s administration winds down. Far from signaling the inevitability of an attack, the partisan panic is a last hurrah for those opposed to Trump’s “maximum pressure” in favor of a more incentives-based outreach. Warnings of war are the gift that keeps on giving for a broad progressive array of organizations that fundraise off the scenario. They make for good press and national security clickbait, but there is little indication that Trump will attack Iran anytime soon.
True, those determined to see imminent war cite evidence to support their fears: It has now been a year since Trump ordered a drone strike on Qassem Soleimani, the chief of Iran’s elite Qods Force and a man with much American blood on his hands, as he drove along Baghdad’s airport road. In phone calls to Iraq’s president and prime minister, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened further military actions against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq if the Iraqi government did not do more to constrain them itself. More recently, Trump reportedly asked senior advisors about military options to counter Iran’s nuclear program and, in recent days, the U.S. Air Force flew B-52s over the Persian Gulf.
Those seeking to depict Trump as recklessly flirting with war, however, appear guilty of the same cherry-picking of evidence with which they often charge their partisan opponents. Consider Trump’s history: He takes pride in becoming the first president since Jimmy Carter to not initiate conflict with any country and seems to loathe to upend that record in his last weeks in office. When, in June 2019, Iran shot down an American drone, Trump reportedly approved a strike but then withdrew his authorization. He has cycled through defense secretaries after they clashed with the White House over his desire to speed withdrawals from the Middle East, Africa, and Afghanistan. Nor is reviewing military options irresponsible: the job of a president is to review all options. In 1979, after Iranian militants seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took 52 hostages, for example, Carter reviewed the late Adm. James “Ace” Lyons’ war plans to seize Iranian ports before opting for a more diplomatic approach. Likewise, when Libyan operatives bombed Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, during the last week of the Reagan presidency, President-elect George H.W. Bush considered plans for military retaliation before choosing to pursue the suspects through an international tribunal instead. True, two B-52s flew over the Persian Gulf. But, as U.S. service academies teach and the National Security Council exists to coordinate, every coherent strategy combines diplomatic, informational, military, and economic components. The bulk of the military’s job is not bombing, but rather than deterrence and containment. Far from impeding diplomacy or provoking war, exhibitions of force do the opposite. They are prudent as adversaries believe America most vulnerable at times of transition. While optimum strike posture would put aircraft carriers outside the narrow confines of the Persian Gulf in order to reduce the threat posed by Iranian small boats, missiles, and mines, no U.S. aircraft carrier or amphibious assault ship appears within the range of Iran. Contrast current force posture with “Operation Desert Fox,” Bill Clinton’s 1998 assault on Iraq: It involved the USS Enterprise, and the USS Belleau Wood amphibious assault group, as well as strikes from a dozen B-52s operating from Diego Garcia, and sorties launched from airfields in both Oman and Kuwait. Iran is almost four times the size of Iraq. Current U.S. force posture does not approach what would be needed to counter Iran’s air defenses and neutralize its command-and-control let alone tackle its nuclear and missile infrastructure. Progressives might hate Trump’s Iran policy, but to proclaim war footing where none exists only feeds the partisan paranoia so corrosive to tackling the very real challenges Washington faces from Tehran.

In Reversal, Pentagon Announces Aircraft Carrier Nimitz Will Remain in Middle East
Eric Schmitt/The New York Times/January 04/2021
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon said on Sunday that it had ordered the aircraft carrier Nimitz to remain in the Middle East because of Iranian threats against President Trump and other American officials, just three days after sending the warship home as a signal to de-escalate rising tensions with Tehran.
The acting secretary of the defense, Christopher C. Miller, abruptly reversed his previous order to redeploy the Nimitz, which he had done over the objections of his top military advisers. The military had for weeks been engaged in a muscle-flexing strategy aimed at deterring Iran from attacking American personnel in the Persian Gulf. “Due to the recent threats issued by Iranian leaders against President Trump and other U.S. government officials, I have ordered the U.S.S. Nimitz to halt its routine redeployment,” Mr. Miller said in a statement on Sunday night.
United States intelligence agencies have assessed for months that Iran is seeking to target senior American military officers and civilian leaders to avenge the death of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, in an American drone strike one year ago. But it was unclear what new urgency about these threats, if any, prompted Mr. Miller to cancel his earlier order to send the Nimitz home. In the past few days, Iranian officials have increased their fiery messaging against the United States. The head of Iran’s judiciary, Ebrahim Raisi, said all of those who had a role in General Suleimani’s killing would not be able to “escape law and justice,” even if they were an American president. It was unclear last week whether Mr. Trump was aware of Mr. Miller’s order to send the Nimitz to its home port in Bremerton, Wash., after a longer-than-usual 10-month deployment.
Some Trump administration officials suggested on Sunday that with a contentious political week coming up — Tuesday’s Senate runoff election in Georgia and Wednesday’s meeting of the House and Senate to certify President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory — the optics of the aircraft carrier steaming away from the Middle East did not suit the White House. Whatever the reason, the mixed messaging surrounding the carrier’s movements raised new questions about the coordination and communications between an inexperienced Pentagon leadership and the White House in the waning days of the Trump administration. Some current and former Pentagon officials have criticized the decision-making at the Pentagon since Mr. Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper and several of his top aides in November, and replaced them with Mr. Miller, a former White House counterterrorism aide, and several Trump loyalists. Officials said on Friday that Mr. Miller ordered the redeployment of the Nimitz in part as a “de-escalatory” signal to Tehran to avoid stumbling into a crisis at the end of Mr. Trump’s administration that would land in Mr. Biden’s lap as he took office.
In recent weeks, Mr. Trump has repeatedly threatened Iran on Twitter, and in November, top national security aides talked the president out of a pre-emptive strike against an Iranian nuclear site.
The Pentagon’s Central Command had for weeks publicized several shows of force to warn Tehran of the consequences of any assault against American troops or diplomats.
The Nimitz and other warships arrived to provide air cover for American troops withdrawing from Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia. The Air Force three times dispatched B-52 bombers to fly within 60 miles of the Iranian coast. And the Navy announced for the first time in nearly a decade that it had ordered a submarine, carrying cruise missiles, into the Persian Gulf. American intelligence reports indicated that Iran and its proxies might have been preparing a strike as early as this past weekend to avenge the deaths of General Suleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the head of Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq, who was killed in the same United States drone strike in Baghdad last January. American intelligence analysts in recent days say they have detected Iranian air defenses, maritime forces and other security units on high alert. They have also determined that Iran has moved more short-range missiles and drones into Iraq. But senior Defense Department officials acknowledge they cannot tell if Iran or its Shiite proxies in Iraq are readying to strike American troops or are preparing defensive measures in case Mr. Trump orders a pre-emptive attack against them.

Israel continues its campaign of targeting Iranian-affiliated sites in Syria
Joe.Truzman/FDD/January 04/2020
Explosion after Israeli airstrikes near Lebanon-Syria border Wednesday morning.
Israel continues to operate its “war between the wars” campaign against Iranian activity in Syria with airstrikes in the city of al-Zabadani, located near the Lebanon-Syria border on Wednesday morning. This is the second instance of an Israeli attack against Iranian-affiliated positions in Syria in less than a week.
At approximately 1:30 in the morning local time, reports surfaced in Tyre, Lebanon of Israeli aircraft flying at low altitude. A short time thereafter, the Syrian state-controlled news agency (SANA) reported air defense units were actively responding to an Israeli attack in the Damascus countryside.
Residents near the area of the attack posted footage online which showed a large explosion after the airstrikes occurred. SANA followed-up its initial report with an assessment of the damage caused by the airstrikes.
“At exactly 1:30 am today, the Israeli enemy carried out an air assault with bursts of rockets from northern Galilee, targeting a unit of our air defense in the Nabi Habil area in the Damascus countryside. Our air defenses intercepted some of the aggressor’s missiles, which resulted in one martyr, wounding of three soldiers and material losses,” the statement said. Evidence of an air defense unit being targeted in the attack was corroborated by reports of the death of First Lieutenant Sharaf Ali Ma’an Houla, from the Syrian Air Defense Corps, during the attack.
However, the footage of the blast and pictures posted on social media, suggests multiple targets were attacked. Footage of the blast including pictures taken of the aftermath of the strike indicates a missile production site or ammunition depot was also hit in the airstrike.
This assessment falls in line with previously reported Israeli attacks against Hezbollah sites in Syria. Less than a day after the airstrikes, Israeli Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin repeated warnings that Israel would act against Iranian activity in Syria and the transfer of precision missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon. “The Middle East is very explosive. We will not accept Iranian capabilities on the [Israel-Syria] border, and we will not accept precision missiles in Lebanon,” Norkin stated.
The repeated attempts by the Israeli military to thwart Iranian-affiliated activity in Syria over the last week and previous months indicates Iran continues to be undeterred with its project of entrenchment along the Golan Heights as well as supplying Hezbollah with precision missiles.
*Joe Truzman is a contributor to FDD's Long War Journal.
 

Arabs: An Extremely Important Voice for Peace
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/January 04/2021
When someone with George Kurdahi's weight and stature openly states that it is up to the Arab countries to decide whether they want to make peace with Israel, this sends a message to millions of Arabs that the idea of establishing relations with Israel may not be a bad one after all.
This, needless to say, is a refreshing change, especially because it is coming from a country such as Lebanon, which is effectively ruled by Hezbollah and the mullahs in Iran.
"If the weapons [of Hezbollah] undermine the State of Lebanon and are an obstacle to the return of many Arabs to Lebanon, then there needs to be re-examination of the situation. Hezbollah must reconsider its positions so that we can ensure a prosperous future for Lebanon." — George Kurdahi, one of the Arab world's most influential TV presenters, YouTube, December 26, 2020, Lebanon.
Kurdahi may have "shocked" his audience by speaking out in favor of peace with Israel and by criticizing the Palestinians and Hezbollah. His words, however, hardly surprised those who read and listen to what many Arabs in the Gulf have been saying about the Palestinians and Hezbollah, as well as peace with Israel.
These Arabs also have a clear and powerful opinion of Hezbollah: a manipulative and murderous terrorist group that serves as proxy for the mullahs in Iran and poses a real threat not only to Israel, but to Lebanon and other Arab countries as well.
When someone with the weight and stature of George Kurdahi, one of the Arab world's most influential TV presenters, openly states that it is up to the Arab countries to decide whether they want to make peace with Israel, this sends a message to millions of Arabs that the idea of establishing relations with Israel may not be a bad one after all. (Image source: Yahya Al Qahtani/Flickr/CC by 2.0)
George Kurdahi is one of the Arab world's most influential TV presenters. On December 26, 2020, he surprised many of his fans by stating that Arab countries are entitled to normalize their relations with Israel.
The Lebanese-born Kurdahi, ex-host of the Arabic version of the game show "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?" also angered many Arabs and Muslims by criticizing the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist organization and the Palestinians. Until recently, Kurdahi was considered a supporter of Hezbollah and an opponent of relations with Israel.
Kurdahi's statements, during an interview with Lebanon's Sawt Beirut International TV, reflect the views of a growing number of Lebanese and Arabs regarding the issues of normalization with Israel, Hezbollah's destructive policies and actions, and widespread disillusionment with the Palestinians residing in Arab countries.
In the past few days, Kurdahi has been denounced by several Arabs, who said that the mask has finally fallen off his face and accused him of treason and of being on the payroll of the wealthy Gulf states.
Kurdahi's statements are of great significance because of his huge popularity and influence in the Arab world, and because it was the first time that he spoke out clearly on these sensitive subjects.
When someone with his weight and stature openly states that it is up to the Arab countries to decide whether they want to make peace with Israel, this sends a message to millions of Arabs that the idea of establishing relations with Israel may not be a bad one after all.
Kurdahi did not endorse the notorious slogan that normalization with Israel is an act of treason, or a sin or a crime.
He did not follow suit with many Lebanese, Palestinian and Arab media personalities who condemned the recent normalization agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco as a "betrayal of the Palestinians and a stab in their back." This, needless to say, is a refreshing change, especially because it is coming from a country such as Lebanon, which is effectively ruled by Hezbollah and the mullahs in Iran.
What did Kurdahi exactly say to stir such controversy and alienate many Arabs?
Asked about the possibility that Lebanon would one day make peace with Israel, Kurdahi replied with one sentence: "I'm with normalization once the Palestinians achieve their rights."
That he did not entirely dismiss the possibility of a peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon was sufficient to raise many eyebrows in Lebanon and some Arab countries.
In response to a question about his opinion regarding the normalization agreements between Israel and the four Arab countries, Kurdahi said:
"In principle, I'm against the normalization as long as the Palestinians are not given an independent state and as long as they don't achieve their rights. But there is a certain reality now. For the past 74 years, the Arab countries have been supporting the Palestinian issue. The Arab countries, especially the Gulf states, were always supporting the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian people. After 74 years, however, we see that the Palestinians are divided. They can't agree among themselves. They are unable to speak in one voice. We have been telling the Palestinians that they must be united, and not have Hamas, the PLO, Fatah, Islamic Jihad and others.
"As far as I'm concerned, the Arab states are sovereign countries. Egypt and Jordan, likewise, are sovereign countries that have established relations with Israel. The Gulf states are sovereign countries. If the United Arab Emirates normalizes with Israel, that is its business. I don't want to intervene in the internal affairs of these countries."
Regarding the issue of Hezbollah that has long been functioning as a state-within-a-state in Lebanon, Kurdahi said that it was time for the terrorist organization to reconsider its policies and actions. "The time has come for the Hezbollah leadership and its secretary-general, Hassan Narsallah, to revise their policies," Kurdahi remarked.
"We [Lebanese] want to know where we are headed. Can Lebanon continue with its current situation? If the weapons [of Hezbollah] undermine the State of Lebanon and are an obstacle to the return of many Arabs to Lebanon, then there needs to be re-examination of the situation. Hezbollah must reconsider its positions so that we can ensure a prosperous future for Lebanon."
Kurdahi's statements about Hezbollah come as the terrorist organization is facing increased criticism over its possible responsibility for the August 4, 2020 explosion at the Port of Beirut, which killed 204 civilians, injured thousands and resulted in a great number of internally displaced families. The explosion was caused by a cache of 2,750 metric tons of ammonium nitrate precariously stored in the port. Some Lebanese have accused Hezbollah of storing weapons at the port, a claim the terrorist organization denies.
"George Kurdahi shocks his audience and stirs controversy," wrote Kamal Khalaf, a Beirut-based correspondent for the Rai Al-Youm online newspaper.
"His statements sparked widespread controversy among social media users in Lebanon, where many people saw his remarks as a coup against the discourse in the Lebanese media."
Kurdahi may have "shocked" his audience by speaking out in favor of peace with Israel and by criticizing the Palestinians and Hezbollah. His words, however, hardly surprised those who read and listen to what many Arabs in the Gulf have been saying about the Palestinians and Hezbollah, as well as peace with Israel.
These Arabs have come out in full support of peace with Israel and have denounced the Palestinians as an "ungrateful" people who, after receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in handouts from the Arab countries, are now spitting in the well from which they have long guzzled, by condemning the Arab states for normalizing their relations with Israel.
These Arabs also have a clear and powerful opinion of Hezbollah: a manipulative and murderous terrorist group that serves as proxy for the mullahs in Iran and poses a real threat not only to Israel, but to Lebanon and other Arab countries as well.
It now remains to be seen whether the Arabs who have come out in support of Kurdahi will increase their numbers -- or whether the voices of the Arab extremists will yet again prevail, drowning out anyone who dares to mention peace with Israel or condemn the Palestinians and Hezbollah for their intransigence and deadly extremism.
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Peace Agreements between Israel and Morocco: The Wisdom of a King
Pierre Rehov/Gatestone Institute/January 04/2021
"30 years is long enough to place ballot boxes." — Sami Gailani, blaming the UN for the conflict in the Western Sahara that had been frozen for 30 years; Euronews; November 17, 2020.
"There is no Sahrawi people as there is a French, American or Moroccan people," stated the political scientist Alexandre Greenberg. "The only institution that claims to represent the Sahrawi people is the Polisario Front, a Marxist guerrilla group armed by Algeria."
Through these agreements, stemming from the Trump doctrine, which redraw the map of an Arab world more united in the face of Iranian threats and Turkish ambitions, a modern myth is shattering -- that of "international law" represented by the false omnipotence of the United Nations.
The agreement forged by His Majesty King Mohammed VI and the United States is a feat of great statesmanship -- a firm diplomatic triumph for peace in the Middle East.
The agreement to normalize relations with Israel, forged by Morocco's King Mohammed VI and the United States, is a feat of great statesmanship -- a firm diplomatic triumph for peace in the Middle East.
In December 2020, Morocco became the fourth Arab-Muslim country -- after the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan -- to announce the normalization of relations with Israel, including direct flights from Tel Aviv to Rabat.
The relationship between the two countries has long been rooted the large number of Jews who had lived in Morocco before and after the creation of the State of Israel in 1948. Moroccans who immigrated to Israel in the two decades following its establishment became one of the most important components of the new state's population. Today, they and their descendants comprise nearly one million people, whom Morocco's King Mohammad VI can consider distant supportive sympathizers.
Unlike Algeria and Tunisia, whose successive governments have never considered opening negotiations leading to the recognition of Israel, Morocco, under the aegis of its sovereigns, is the only Arab country whose constitution formally recognizes Judaism as a referent of identity, alongside Muslims and Christians.
Many Moroccans consider both King Mohammad VI and his late father, King Hassan II, as "commanders of the believers", direct descendants of the Prophet of Islam, even before being kings. Royalty in Morocco is divine in nature, meaning that its authority is supreme, recognized, and accepted. The Moroccan people, as a whole, revere their ruler.
This set of facts -- far removed from Algeria's Marxist revolutionary spirit with an Islamist tendency and the purely anti-Zionist tradition of the Tunisian rulers -- has, since the rebirth of Israel, led Morocco to adopt a moderate attitude toward the Jewish state. Mohammed VI, like Hassan II, has long maintained a pragmatic approach, far from a conflict that only indirectly involved his country.
"Israel has always rendered enormous services to the Moroccan kingdom," said Hasni Abidi, director of the Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World (CERMAM) in Geneva, "and Morocco has also been present when Israel asked for it."
Although officially Morocco claimed to be at war with Israel since 1948, the late King Hassan II, a pragmatic sympathizer, in 1965 "passed recordings to Israel of a key meeting between Arab leaders" from an Arab League conference in Casablanca. The intelligence helped Israel to measure the extent of the danger represented by the war preparations of Egypt, Jordan and Syria. Even before the 1967 "Six Day War," the outcome of which was a debacle for Arab armies, King Hassan II had also developed a relationship of reciprocity with the Israeli intelligence services.
In 1975, the claim to Western Sahara by the Polisario Front -- a political and military organization formed mainly by Sahrawis in Mauritania in 1973, but housed, supported and armed by Algeria ever since -- prompted Morocco to seek secret aid from the Israeli military. The Israelis reportedly helped to reorganize the Royal Moroccan Armed Forces.
During the 1980s, Hassan II tried to break the deadlock over his country's recognition of Israel's right to exist by meeting in 1986 with then-Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, and later, in 2007, by supporting "six decades of secret ties," including an encounter in Paris of both countries' foreign ministers.
That meeting eventually led to the opening in 1994 of Liaison Offices, kinds of discreet embassies, in Tel Aviv and Rabat. More recently, due to the growing threat in the region of an expansionist Iran, Morocco and Israel sought to strengthen their secret ties, possibly in the hope of making them public. In February 2019, both countries participated in the U.S.-led Warsaw Conference on Iran's terrorist threats, an event followed by protests orchestrated by the Muslim Brotherhood. In January 2020, Morocco received three Israeli drones as part of a $48 million arms deal.
Most recently, on December 10, 2020, President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Morocco had agreed to establish full diplomatic relations. "It is not a recognition of Israel," said a senior Moroccan diplomat, "Morocco recognized Israel in 1994."
For King Mohammad VI, the agreement not only amounts to formalizing a secret relationship, the existence of which is favorable to the economy and security of both countries; it can also lead to a deepened cooperation and security throughout the region, especially in the face of Iran's increasingly hegemonic threat.
King Mohammed VI also announced that the United States was recognizing Morocco's claim to the Western Sahara – an area about the size of Great Britain, along the Atlantic, with Morocco at its north and Mauritania at its south -- disputed for more than 30 years by the Polisario Front.
America's recognition, in line with President Trump's diplomatic doctrine aimed at reducing conflicts, had the immediate consequence of announcing the opening of consulates in Dakhla, a major fishing port in Western Sahara, by Congo, Bahrain and Haiti. "This opening embodies a logic of solidarity and defense of Moroccan territorial integrity," said Nasser Bourita, Morocco's Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.
Beyond America's recognition, an autonomy plan for Western Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty is taking shape, applauded by U.S. President Donald Trump. "Morocco's serious, credible, and realistic autonomy proposal is the ONLY basis for a just and lasting solution for enduring peace and prosperity!", Trump wrote on Twitter.
This plan, with American aid, provides for an economic revival that should ultimately strengthen relations between Moroccans and the Sahrawis, who had hoped to have the Western Sahara as an independent state.
The peaceful and constructive pragmatism of King Mohammad VI, whose courage has just been expressed once again by the acceptance of this agreement did not, however, elicit only positive reactions.
The Polisario Front protested, followed by Russia. "What the Americans have done is a unilateral decision that totally breaks the boundaries of the international law," said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov.
"There are foreign maneuvers aimed at destabilizing Algeria," declared Algerian Prime Minister Abdelaziz Djerad.
The United Nations also rebelled, through its Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. "[T]he Secretary‑General has a position, unchanged, which he believes it... the solution to the question can still be found based on Security Council resolutions," according to Stéphane Dujarric, Spokesman for the Secretary-General. However, as one observer, Sami Gailani, noted, "30 years is long enough to place ballot boxes."
"There is no Sahrawi people as there is a French, American or Moroccan people," stated the political scientist Alexandre Greenberg. "[T]he only institution that claims to represent the Sahrawi people is the Polisario Front, a Marxist guerrilla group armed by Algeria."
Through these agreements, stemming from the Trump doctrine, which redrew the map of an Arab world more united in the face of Iranian threats and Turkish ambitions, a modern myth is shattering -- that of "international law" represented by the false omnipotence of the United Nations. For King Mohammad VI, as for the Israeli government, the unenforceable resolutions of the "thing," as Charles De Gaulle called it, no longer matter.
The agreement forged by His Majesty King Mohammed VI and the United States is a feat of great statesmanship -- a firm diplomatic triumph for peace in the Middle East.
Pierre Rehov, born and raised in North Africa, is a reporter, author and the director of "Hostages of Hatred" and "Silent Exodus", documentary films about Palestinian and Jewish refugees.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
 

On Normalization, Issues of Freedom and Democracy
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 04/2021
The Arab revolutions were not unwise in treating normalization and peace with Israel as relatively secondary. They clung to the Palestinian people’s rights and their cause's righteousness, but they did not shut the door to peace and normalization or open it. They did not claim normalization was a gateway to freedom and democracy nor that it was deadly to freedom and democracy.
In that they gave freedom primacy, the revolutions’ priorities appeared to be different. This divergence places freedom and democracy in a different category than normalization, whether it is viewed negatively or positively.
In other words, repression can be exercised and reinforced with or without normalization.
Freedom and democracy have been defeated for reasons that have nothing to do with normalization or the lack thereof. From this angle, the critical issues that warrant our attention regard the fabric of societies, kinship structures, the positions of armies, cities, the bourgeoisie, and the outside world.
However, while normalizing and non-normalization are practically equivalent in terms of their limited impact on the fates of freedom and democracy, they are not theoretical equals: indeed, not normalizing has a quality that normalization does not possess. In its essence, its finest manifestation, it renders freedom secondary. It postpones freedom if not belittles it vis-a-vis “the primary contradiction” or the famous sound of battle that no sound rises above. In the fight against normalization, armed confrontation and the struggle must take precedence over all civilian concerns. The attempts at reconciling them are merely articles and opinions negated by the slightest contact with reality.
In this sense, normalization is a political position and calculation that one may or may not agree with. Anti-normalization, with the struggle and resistance that come with it, is a sacrosanct and salvational position. Whoever deviates from it is a traitor. This is not just axis of resistance dogma. It is the reality of the situation, and its inconsistency with democracy cannot be resolved with words and desires: What if, for example, popular will, as expressed within a democratic system, supported normalization, violated the salvational and the sacrosanct?
This is why it is not insignificant that the anti-normalization zealots are fanatically enthusiastic about armies, the instrument of war against Israel that are, however, an instrument for tyrannizing citizens at the same time. These fanatics had the whole world hearing their screams when the Iraqi army was dissolved in 2003. However, though the American solution did not prove an absolute cure, this army made it apparent in 2014, when ISIS occupied the city of Mosul, that it is a nonentity. These same fanatics are the “courageous” Syrian army’s most fervent supporters. The full force of this army was directed only against its people. Defending the two armies’ primary pretext was the need to “confront Israel.”
There is an abundance of arguments that demonstrate the weakness of normalization’s link with repression, without this necessarily implying that those who normalize are not repressive. Arguments for the strength of the connection between anti-normalization and repression abound. Anwar Sadat, a normalizer, was repressive, but his repression was a drop in the sea of that seen during the reign of Nasser, a “resistor.” The Syrian regime is the most brutal and tyrannical in the Arab world, and it is also the most hostile to normalization.
On the other hand, the Palestinian example, unfortunately, does not bridge this gap. Democracy has never been on the agenda of the leaders who have successively represented the Palestinian cause. This is true for Amin al-Husseini, Ahmad Hilmi, Ahmad al-Shuqiri, and Yasser Arafat, as well as George Habash, Nayef Hawatmeh, Ahmad Yassin, Khaled Meshaal, Ismail Haniyeh, and Mahmoud Abbas. There is no single deviation from this norm, despite the variety of ideologies, times, and experiences. We have become like the faithful who claim: they have all failed to implement the religion appropriately. From the PLO to all the other factions, the Palestinian revolution’s institutions have not presented us with an example to support this link with freedom and democracy. Regarding issues in neighboring countries, the positions that least manifested freedom and democracy were always chosen. In Lebanon, weapons and armaments were the means of choice, which contributed to crushing a parliamentary system that had had the capacity to develop and reform. In Syria, Assad was chosen over his people. In Iraq, Saddam Hussein and his wars were chosen. In Lebanon, Hezbollah, which exterminated the Palestinian resistance’s last outposts, was not only forgiven for its actions, all hearts and minds unanimously embraced it. “Coincidences” recurred until they became “law.”
These choices did not entrench the rift between the Palestinian cause and its undoubted righteousness and freedom and democracy questions. Rather, they impoverished the cause itself and weakened its ties to everything invigorated outside of its immediate surroundings, and indeed within them as well. Little by little, the cause became a spirit without tangible a physical form to embody. There is plenty of room for doubt in souls that are not embodied and refrain, time after time, from being manifested in any tangible and concrete form.
Concerning all of this, normalization is irrelevant. The concern is the inflation of this headline is a consequence of the defeats of the revolutions that tried to change the headlines and the regression to this antiquated hot air.
But the “masses” whom those who oppose normalization claimed would rise and topple it did not show up. They didn’t make an appearance in large or small countries, nor did they do so in rich or poor countries. Some of those opposed have replaced the hopelessly disappointing “masses” with Joe Biden!
Once, again, this development did not compel a revision or a reformulation outside the two lowly phrases that we take out of the timeworn closet: in times of scarcity, it is said that “the rulers have worn the masses down into complacency”. In times of abundance, it is claimed that “the rulers bribed the masses, who took the bribe.”The matter has come to warrant contemplation, revision, and taking some distance from sacrosanct sentiments that are immune to the effects of the passage of time.

The ‘Crescent General’ and Regional Change
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 04/2021
Iran is counting the days for when Donald Trump leaves the White House. It is firing one warning after another at the departing administration, promising surprises from within America. It is raising the stakes, the level of uranium enrichment and threats all at once, while also refraining from granting the leader of the White House an excuse to launch a military operation against it.
On the first anniversary of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran is reminding the world of its ability to keep part of the Middle East in a state of tension. Its rockets and drones are present in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. The militias it has developed in these countries appear prepared to take part with it in going the distance, should it choose to, regardless of the difficult economic conditions these countries are enduring. There is no need to resort to numbers to underscore the suffering of the people amid the economic collapse in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, all of which was compounded with the coronavirus pandemic.
It is clear that Iran holds the cards in several capitals and maps. It is also clear that it is unable to respond to the massive loss that was Soleimani’s killing. Harassing an American position in the Middle East will favor American hawks who support the use of force against Iran. Such a clash will not be simple, because it will not only impact ties with the Trump administration, but the incoming Biden one. Moreover, any retaliation will lead to the continuation of economic sanctions in a setback to Iran, especially since they have proven that the world would choose ties with America over Tehran.
Iran could have gone in a different direction, towards a limited war with Israel. This choice too seems difficult because such a war would be too much for Lebanon to bear, especially amid the severe crisis it is enduring. Iran also does not have free reign to launch rockets from Syrian territories. This is not limited to the current state of the Syrian army, but also due to the Russian role in the country. The situation in Iraq also does not encourage Iran to use its territories so liberally.
Ultimately, Iran will choose, even without declaring so, to continue to adopt the policy of undermining American relations with several countries in the region. This could take on the shape of demanding America to completely pull out its forces from Iraq, continue to tighten its grip over Lebanon’s decision-making power and use the Houthi proxy more extensively in the Red Sea.
A year ago, Donald Trump took a decision that no one believed an American president could take. He ordered the killing of General Qassem Soleimani.
This killing was different than taking out Usama bin Laden or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Soleimani comes from a different background. He comes from a country that refuses to abandon the heated revolution in favor of establishing normal or regular state institutions. He is a general whose country’s constitution orders its armed forces to “export the revolution”. As commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, Soleimani was tasked with leading the widescale offensive in the region. He soon took on powers that went beyond his title, arming himself with the breakthroughs he made in several countries and constantly relying on the support from supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Such was born talk that Soleimani was the Iranian regime’s top figure, second only to Khamenei and irrespective of which president was ruling the country.
An Iraqi politician who worked with Soleimani was asked about what he believes were his achievements for Tehran. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he replied: “Iran viewed the American invasion of Iraq as an extraordinary gift. The Saddam regime – even with its nails clipped by the boycott and sanctions - was a barrier against the flood of Iran’s policy and militias in the region. Tehran did not have the ability to impede the American invasion, but it took the decision to prevent the establishment of a stable, pro-America government in Baghdad. It used all means to do so. This is how Soleimani tried to turn the Americans’ stay in Iraq into hell. At times he crossed all red lines by even mobilizing groups that are hostile to Iran itself.”
“Some two years later, after the assassination of Lebanese former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Iran will take the decision to prevent the establishment of a stable Lebanese government that is friendly with the west and moderate Arabs. From this angle, one can perhaps understand the 2006 war against Israel and the so-called May 7, 2008 developments that regulated Tehran’s inheriting of the role the Syrian regime used to play in Lebanon before Hariri’s assassination,” added the official.
“When the Syrian revolt erupted, Tehran took the decision to keep Bashar Assad’s regime in power at any cost. Soleimani was tasked with fulfilling this goal. From this angle, one can understand the Lebanese Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria. Soleimani then brought in militias from several countries without which the regime could not have been saved. Russia alone could not have saved it,” he remarked.
On Yemen, Iran decided to intervene as part of a policy to surround main countries in the region. On the Palestinian scene, Soleimani was the architect of the relationship with the Palestinian “resistance” that led to the establishment of the entity in Gaza, he added.
There is no doubt that the region is on edge. It is no secret that the final weeks of Trump’s term will be boiling with tensions. The question, however, is what will the Biden administration do when it receives these hot files? There is no doubt that Trump has left a strong mark in the American-Iranian confrontation. Soleimani’s assassination itself was gamechanger as was the withdrawal from the nuclear deal and imposition of stifling sanctions.
There is nothing to imply that chanting death to “the great Satan” will lead to its demise. There is also nothing to imply that keeping capitals constantly on the boil will earn Iran the position of “great partner” to the “great Satan.” There is nothing to imply that the heated anniversary of the killing of the “crescent general” will lead to any change. It is no secret that change hinges on Iran accepting that living as a normal state inside a map with internationally recognized borders is better for the future of Iranians than interfering in the affairs of other countries.