English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 02/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news
 

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Bible Quotations For today

Presenting Jesus In The Temple & The Righteous-devout Simeon, who was waiting for the consolation of Israel
Luke 02/25-35/ Now there was a man in Jerusalem called Simeon, who was righteous and devout. He was waiting for the consolation of Israel, and the Holy Spirit was on him. It had been revealed to him by the Holy Spirit that he would not die before he had seen the Lord’s Messiah. Moved by the Spirit, he went into the temple courts. When the parents brought in the child Jesus to do for him what the custom of the Law required, Simeon took him in his arms and praised God, saying: “Sovereign Lord, as you have promised, you may now dismiss[d] your servant in peace. For my eyes have seen your salvation, which you have prepared in the sight of all nations: a light for revelation to the Gentiles, and the glory of your people Israel.” The child’s father and mother marveled at what was said about him. Then Simeon blessed them and said to Mary, his mother: “This child is destined to cause the falling and rising of many in Israel, and to be a sign that will be spoken against, so that the thoughts of many hearts will be revealed. And a sword will pierce your own soul too.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 01- 02/2021

Vidio:Cynthia Farahat on the Youtube Middle East Forum. All What you should and Must know about the Muslim Brotherhood’s secret Apparatus/
Israel Says Drone Falls in Lebanese Territory, Hezbollah Says it Brought it Down
Hizbullah 'Downs' Israeli Drone in Blida
Lebanon Army Arrests 18 Lebanese, Syrians Linked to ISIS
Presidency Says Aoun Not Seeking One-Third Share but Keen on Naming Ministers
Berri Refuses Veto Powers, Says Government Impasse is Local
Report: Berri Escalated after Aoun and Bassil Rejected His Initiative
Health Ministry: 2020 new Coronavirus infections, 63 deaths
Presidency Information Office reiterates: President Aoun has not asked for blocking third
Berri meets UNIFIL's Del Col, French ambassador
Beirut Port blast martyrs' families rally outside Judge Sawan’s residence
Supreme Islamic Shiite Council urges politicians to support Berri’s initiative
Arrival of 100 British army armoured patrol vehicles- donation to Lebanese army
Crisis-Hit Lebanon Hikes Subsidized Bread Price by a Fifth
10 Lebanese Freed in UAE to Arrive in Lebanon Tuesday
UK Donation of Armored Patrol Vehicles Delivered to Lebanon
Gibran Basil and the future of Lebanon’s politics/Sami Moubayed/Gulf News/February 01, 2021
Survivors of Beirut's Explosion Endure Psychological Scars

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 01- 02/2021

Pope says he is intent on making Iraq trip despite difficulties
Mossad Director Criticizes Army Chief Over Iran Remarks
US secretary of state: Iran ‘weeks away from having material to build nuclear bomb’
Israel wants to setup road links with UAE, says 130,000 tourists visited: Diplomat
Zarif says EU can ‘choreograph’ moves by Iran, US to reach a new nuclear deal
Iran state TV airs launch of newest satellite-carrying rocket
Turkey's President Erdogan says may be time for new constitution
Dozens of Former Bush Officials Leave Republican Party
WHO Slams Critics of Covid-19 Origins Probe
Dubai Shuts Bars after Coronavirus Surge
U.N. Security Council to Hold Emergency Meeting on Myanmar Tuesday
Kosovo Establishes Israel Ties, to Open Embassy in Jerusalem
Report: Government Stalemate ‘Awaits’ Macron’s Visit
Jared Kushner, Avi Berkowitz nominated for Nobel peace prize for Israel deals
 

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 01- 02/2021

A Drop of Vaccine, a Drop of Hope/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/February 01/2021
Why Tunisia… Despite Everything?/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/February 01/2021
American Universities Declare War on Military History/Max Hastings/Bloomberg/February 01/2021
IDF chief of staff warns of return to Iran nuclear deal, details response to proxies/Joe Truzman/Long War Journal/January 01/2021
With Trump Gone and COVID-19 Vaccines Arriving, Iran-China Trade Will Flourish in 2021/Saeed Ghasseminejad/Policy Brief/FDD/January 01/2021
Biden national security adviser suggests fast timeline to rejoin Iran deal/Anne Gearan/The Washington Post/January 01/2021
Is peace between Iran and Israel inevitable?/Victoria Coatesal and Len Khodorkovsky/Jerusalem Post/January 01/2021
Russia: Putin Shoots Himself in the Foot/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/February 01/2021
Another Muslim-American Soldier Turns Terrorist Traitor/Raymond Ibrahim/February 01/2021
The Iranian Nuclear between Iranian Equivocation and American Dilemmas/Charles Elias Chartouni/February 01/2021
Nuclear talks should also aim to end Iran’s hostage diplomacy/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/February 01/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 01- 02/2021

Vidio:Cynthia Farahat on the Youtube Middle East Forum. All What you should and Must know about the Muslim Brotherhood’s secret Apparatus/
فيديو محاضرة من ميدل ايست فوروم للكاتبة والخبيرة سنسيا فرحات تلقي من خلالها الأضواء على كل ما يجب أن تعرفة ويجب أن تعرفة عن منظمة الإخوان المسلمين
01 January/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/95470/vidiocynthia-farahat-on-the-youtube-middle-east-forum-all-what-you-should-and-must-know-about-the-muslim-brotherhoods-secret-apparatus/
Cynthia Farahat on the Youtube Middle East Forum : All What you should and Must know about the Muslim Brotherhood’s secret Apparatus.
Middle East Forum/Contrary to its claims of reform and non-violence, the Muslim Brotherhood has an Islamist program and relies heavily on intimidation. Drawing on her original research of previously unreleased Egyptian documents, Cynthia Farahat explains how the MB is less a political entity that relies on terrorist tactics and more a jihadi organization that deploys a political façade.

Israel Says Drone Falls in Lebanese Territory, Hezbollah Says it Brought it Down
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 1 February, 2021
Lebanon’s Hezbollah said on Monday it brought down an Israeli drone that had entered Lebanese airspace, while the Israeli military said one of its drones had fallen inside Lebanon. Hezbollah said in a statement carried by al-Manar television that it was now in control of the drone. The Israeli military said the drone had fallen in Lebanese territory during an operation near the border demarcation known as the Blue Line and that there was, “no breach of information.”
 

Hizbullah 'Downs' Israeli Drone in Blida
Agence France Presse/Monday, 01 February, 2021
Hizbullah said on Monday it downed an Israeli drone that breached Lebanese airspace after it flew over the U.N.-demarcated Blue Line border, while Israel acknowledged an unmanned aircraft had crashed. The Military Media of the Islamic Resistance issued a statement on Monday saying it “downed an Israeli drone that breached the Lebanese airspace over the outskirts of the town of Blida in south Lebanon.”The statement added: “The drone is now in the hands of our fighters.” Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee said in a tweet: “A short while ago, an Israeli army drone fell inside Lebanese territory during operational activity on the border with Lebanon. "There is no risk of breach of information," he said. Hizbullah released images of a four-armed drone equipped with what appeared to be a camera. The announcement came just 10 days after the Israeli army shot down an unmanned aircraft it said had entered its airspace from Lebanon. In August 2020, Hizbullah also said it downed and seized an Israeli drone that flew into Lebanese airspace. Israel at the time likewise said the drone had "fallen."Hizbullah had in September 2019 vowed to down Israeli drones overflying Lebanon following an incident a month earlier when two drones packed with explosives targeted Hizbullah's stronghold in Beirut's southern suburbs.

Lebanon Army Arrests 18 Lebanese, Syrians Linked to ISIS
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 01 February, 2021
Lebanon's army said on Monday it had arrested 18 people, some Lebanese and others Syrian, with links to ISIS. The arrests came in "field operations" that took place over the past two weeks in the border town of Arsal in the north, an army statement said. The individuals arrested confessed to belonging to the ISIS group and supporting it, and several weapons were also confiscated, it said. Juroud Arsal, a barren area in the mountains between Syria and Lebanon, was previously a base of operations for insurgents fighting in the Syrian war, including militants from ISIS and the group formerly known as the Nusra Front.
 

Presidency Says Aoun Not Seeking One-Third Share but Keen on Naming Ministers
Naharnet/February 01, 2021
The Presidency on Monday denied that President Michel Aoun is seeking a one-third share in the new cabinet. “Political and journalistic circles are insisting on circulating that President Michel Aoun is demanding to get the blocking one-third in the new government which has led to delaying its formation, despite the statements and stances issued by the Baabda Palace that confirm that such allegations are baseless,” the Presidency’s press office said in a statement. Stressing that the president has “never demanded” to get a one-third share, the press office pointed out that Aoun is however keen on “practicing his right to naming government ministers who are specialist and competent and who would gain confidence inside and outside the country.”This is aimed at preserving “national partnership” and “Lebanon’s higher interest,” the press office added.

Berri Refuses Veto Powers, Says Government Impasse is Local
Naharnet/February 01, 2021
Speaker Nabih Berri issued a statement on Monday affirming continued efforts to help ease the government deadlock, and stressed that veto powers must not be given to any political party. Berri said he decided to address the Lebanese after the latest incidents in the northern city of Tripoli, and after the calls of religious authorities demanding officials to make a move and salvage the country. “The obstacle is not foreign but stems from the inside,” first said Berri in his statement. He added that everyone should adhere to the “agreement” and to the principle of forming a government of non-partisans and experts, and to choosing figures who do not oppose or support political parties. “Everyone agreed on a government of specialists not belonging to any party, any movement or official, meaning that it is sufficient to name those who are "not against you" and "not with you.” The Development and Liberation bloc adhered to that criterion,” said the Speaker. He added: “This principle applies to everyone without exception.” Berri also affirmed that a power to veto cabinet decisions must not be given to any political party, in an indirect reference at the Free Patriotic Movement, the team of the President. “It is not permissible for anyone to get an obstructing third, otherwise there is no value for competence or for a government trusted by the inside and outside,” he added. The Speaker assured that his efforts will continue, “I will not despair,” he said. He said officials must be “reasonable,” otherwise we could lose Lebanon in the “graves of history.”

Report: Berri Escalated after Aoun and Bassil Rejected His Initiative
Naharnet/February 01, 2021
Speaker Nabih Berri escalated his stance regarding the formation of the new government after President Michel Aoun and Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil rejected an initiative he made last week, a media report said on Monday. “Berri met PM-designate Saad Hariri in Ain el-Tineh at the end of last week and proposed to him an initiative regarding the government,” al-Jadeed TV reported. The initiative called on Aoun and Hariri to “agree on the ministerial candidates for three contentious portfolios: interior, justice and energy,” the TV network said. Under the initiative, the president and the PM-designate were supposed to keep proposing names until they agree on consensual candidates in return for Aoun “giving up the demand of getting the one-third veto power for his party,” al-Jadeed added. According to the TV network, Hariri accepted the initiative as Aoun and Bassil rejected it. “Bassil rejected the proposal, clinging to the one-third blocking share, which torpedoed Berri’s initiative and infuriated him, prompting him to issue a statement revealing that his initiative had run into the blocking one-third obstacle,” al-Jadeed added. “Berri and Hariri have become convinced that the president and his Movement are seeking to get a one-third share to block all junctures that require a two-thirds majority, such as reforms, appointments, the ministerial policy statement, the budget and other issues,” the TV network said. A source close to both Berri and Hariri meanwhile told al-Jadeed that “Aoun condemned himself” through the statement that was issued Monday by the presidential palace since “Berri did not name him in his statement.”

Health Ministry: 2020 new Coronavirus infections, 63 deaths
NNA/February 01, 2021
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Monday, the registration of 2,020 new Coronavirus cases, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 303,072.
It added that 63 deaths were also recorded during the past 24 hours.

Presidency Information Office reiterates: President Aoun has not asked for blocking third
NNA/February 01, 2021
The Information Office of the Lebanese Presidency issued the following statement: “Political and media sources insist on promoting that the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, is demanding the “blocking third” in the upcoming Government, which led to delaying its formation, despite the statements and stances which confirm the invalidity of such allegations, which were issued by the Presidential Palace on different dates, last of which was on the 22nd of last January. Regarding the persistence in promoting such allegations, the Information Office in the Lebanese Presidency reminds once again that President Aoun, who had never asked for the blocking third, is keen to exercise his constitutional rights in naming Ministers of the Government who are skilled and competent. Ministers who will be trusted on national and abroad levels, in order to preserve national partnership on one hand, and the supreme Lebanese interest, on the other”.—Presidency Press Office

Berri meets UNIFIL's Del Col, French ambassador
NNA/February 01, 2021
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday received at his Ain El Tineh residence UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Stefano Del Col, with whom he raised the issue of Israeli escalation and violations of Lebanese sovereignty by land, sea and air in a flagrant violation of Resolution 1701. Speaker Berri underlined the need to resume land and maritime border demarcation meetings. On the other hand, Berri met with French Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo, with talks reportedly touching on the general situation. During the meeting, Ambassador Grillo underlined her country's determination and adherence to President Emmanuel Macron's initiative towards Lebanon, highlighting the need to intensify efforts to accelerate the formation of the government so that Lebanon can overcome crises it is enduring, in particular the economic, financial and health crises. In his turn, Berri renewed his support for the French initiative and the need to form a government that will assume the responsibility of Lebanon’s salvation and advancement.

Beirut Port blast martyrs' families rally outside Judge Sawan’s residence
NNA/February 01, 2021
Beirut Port Blast Martyrs' Families’ committee on Monday rallied outside the residence of investigating judge in the Beirut port explosion, Fadi Sawan, calling on him to resume his investigations into the Beirut port explosion and revealing their outcome. Protesters set out in a march from Sassine Square towards the residence of Judge Fadi Sawan. Protesters raised pictures of the blast martyrs and hoisted banners asking about the fate of the investigation and deploring any recklessness. A stampede took place between the security forces deploying in the vicinity and protesters.

Supreme Islamic Shiite Council urges politicians to support Berri’s initiative
NNA/February 01, 2021
The Supreme Islamic Shiite Council on Monday has confirmed in a statement its support for the initiative of House Speaker Nabih Berri to form a government of specialists, urging officials to support this initiative in order to preserve the country, safeguard its stability and save its economy. The Council stressed the need to accelerate the formation of a reform and rescue government of spec to address the accumulated economic and livelihood crises, restore citizens’ confidence in their state and spare the nation further political tensions, security chaos and health deterioration.

Arrival of 100 British army armoured patrol vehicles- donation to Lebanese army
NNA/February 01, 2021
On Sunday 31 January, the UK’s donation of 100 British army armoured patrol vehicles arrived at port of Beirut. Welcoming its arrival, the UK’s Charge D’affaires Martin Longden said: "I am very pleased to see the arrival of 100 Britisharmy armoured patrol vehicles that we are gifting to the Lebanese Armed Forces. This is just the latest chapter in a decade long partnership between the UK and the Lebanese army to help with the control of Lebanon's borders. We’ve invested some $100 million to help build the border posts and train up the land border regiments so that - from the Mediterranean up north, down to Mount Hermon in the south - the Lebanese state now has the capability to control its own borders which is really strategically significant. I know these are difficult times in Lebanon and the gift of 100 Land Rovers or the other forms of support that we do in humanitarian education and security space in Lebanon is not going to fix the crises that we currently see. Only your political leadership can do that. But in this practical example of support to Lebanon, I hope the people of this amazing country can also see tangible proof that in these tough times you are not alone. You have true friends, and the United Kingdom is proud to be counted as one of them. " Alex Hilton, Defence Attaché at the British Embassy Beirut said: "I am delighted to welcome the donation of 100 armoured patrol vehicles from the British Army delivered to the Lebanese Armed Forces. This is a real capability boost for the Army specifically for the Land Border Regiments. The UK has been supporting the Land Border Regiments for the past 10 years. They face significant threats in securing the border with Syria….These vehicles provide a real enhancement in mobility and especially in protection which gives the patrols the ability to dominate the space between the towers. This is about an ongoing partnership…. This is the first step the delivery of the vehicles, maintenance training and then we will deliver operational training up at the border. "-- British Embassy Press Statement

Crisis-Hit Lebanon Hikes Subsidized Bread Price by a Fifth
Agence France Presse/February 01, 2021
Lebanon on Monday hiked the price of subsidized bread by a fifth, as the government struggles to maintain funding key goods amid an economic crisis that has already sparked protests. Caretaker Economy Minister Raoul Nehme said the price was due to an increase of wheat prices worldwide coupled with the high exchange rate to buy dollars. Lebanon is mired in its worst financial crunch since the 1975-1990 civil war, resulting in recession, a plunge in foreign reserves, and rising inflation. A large bag of flat bread, previously weighing 900 grams and costing 2,000 Lebanese pounds, would now weigh 930 grams and cost 2,500 pounds, a rise of around 20 percent, the National News Agency said. It is the latest increase, with the ministry rising the price of bread made with subsidized flour in June and November 2020. More than half of Lebanon's population live below the poverty line, according to the U.N.
In addition, lockdowns to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus have compounded people's woes -- and sparked protests in the country's second city Tripoli. Also on Monday, food importers warned the economic crisis and lockdown were threatening to deplete food stocks by "about half, or more" in a country that imports around 80 percent of its food. As the central bank's foreign currency reserves become increasingly depleted, fears have risen in recent months that the state may cut subsidies on fuel, flour and medicine. To ease the burden, the World Bank has approved emergency aid worth $246 million to help 786,000 Lebanese.

10 Lebanese Freed in UAE to Arrive in Lebanon Tuesday
Agence France Presse/February 01, 2021
Ten Lebanese citizens released by the UAE will arrive in Lebanon on Tuesday, General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim said on Monday. One was released and flown home on Sunday, while "the ten others should arrive tomorrow," Ibrahim told AFP. It was not immediately clear why they had been detained. But with Gulf nations rocked by tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the UAE has in recent years expelled or sentenced to jail dozens of Lebanese Shiites over alleged ties to Hizbullah, a Tehran-backed Lebanese group Abu Dhabi classifies as a "terrorist" organization. Ibrahim, who has good ties with Hizbullah and most Lebanese and Arab parties, said he had been working towards releasing some of the detainees for the past two years after their families asked him to help. Others had been in jail for four to eight months. An easing of regional tensions allowed progress, and an initial four Lebanese were released as a gesture of goodwill in mid-January, he said. However, even accounting for the four individuals freed in mid January and the deal for 11 more to come home, another 15 Lebanese will remain in the UAE facing trial, Ibrahim said. Lebanese news agency NNA on Sunday said one individual released from the UAE had landed in Beirut. Amnesty International reported on May 15, 2019 that an Emirati court had that day sentenced a Lebanese man to life imprisonment and two compatriots to 10 years in prison on charges of planning attacks on behalf of Hizbullah. Emirati state news agency WAM reported on the same date that the Abu Dhabi Federal Appeal Court sentenced "three Arab nationals" to life and two others to 10 years in a case involving charges against 11 people of "forming a terror cell affiliated to Hizbullah in Lebanon, as well as planning acts of terrorism." Eight of the accused were Lebanese citizens resident in the United Arab Emirates for more than 15 years, seven of them as employees of Dubai-based airline Emirates, Amnesty said. They were arrested between December 2017 and February 2018 and put on trial under terrorism charges. Since 2011, Ibrahim has repeatedly interceded to release Lebanese and non-Lebanese detainees from foreign countries, including in neighboring war-torn Syria and in Iran.

UK Donation of Armored Patrol Vehicles Delivered to Lebanon
Naharnet/February 01, 2021
The UK’s donation of 100 British army armored patrol vehicles arrived at the port of Beirut on Sunday, the British embassy said in a statement released Monday. Welcoming its arrival, the UK’s Charge D’affaires Martin Longden said: "I am very pleased to see the arrival of 100 British army armored patrol vehicles that we are gifting to the Lebanese Armed Forces.”“This is just the latest chapter in a decade long partnership between the UK and the Lebanese army to help with the control of Lebanon's borders,” he added. Noting that the UK has invested some $100 million to help build the border posts and train up the land border regiments, Longden said the Lebanese state now has “the capability to control its own borders which is really strategically significant.” “I know these are difficult times in Lebanon and the gift of 100 Land Rovers or the other forms of support that we do in humanitarian education and security space in Lebanon is not going to fix the crises that we currently see. Only your political leadership can do that,” Longden went on to say. He added: “But in this practical example of support to Lebanon, I hope the people of this amazing country can also see tangible proof that in these tough times you are not alone. You have true friends, and the United Kingdom is proud to be counted as one of them. "Alex Hilton, Defense Attaché at the British Embassy Beirut, said: "I am Delighted to welcome the donation of 100 armored patrol vehicles from the British Army delivered to the Lebanese Armed Forces. This is a real capability boost for the Army specifically for the Land Border Regiments.”“The UK has been supporting the Land Border Regiments for the past 10 years. They face significant threats in securing the border with Syria. These vehicles provide a real enhancement in mobility and especially in protection which gives the patrols the ability to dominate the space between the towers,” he added. “This is about an ongoing partnership. This is the first step the delivery of the vehicles, maintenance training and then we will deliver operational training up at the border, "Hilton went on to say.

Gibran Basil and the future of Lebanon’s politics
Sami Moubayed/Gulf News/February 01, 2021
Revision of Mar Mikhail Agreement unsure due to Hezbollah’s reluctance over Basil
In Lebanon a five-man committee has been created by Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), aimed at “revisiting” the 2006 Mar Mikhail agreement between Hasan Nasrallah and Michel Aoun.
That understanding famously secured Maronite backing for the arms of Hezbollah in exchange for the party’s pledge to make Aoun president of Lebanon, a position that he had long coveted.
Aoun lived up to his part of the deal and in return, Hezbollah parachuted him into the presidency exactly ten years later, in 2016. The new committee is a product of a late December phone call between Nasrallah and Aoun’s son-in-law and political heir, Gibran Basil, the current leader of the FPM. Its members are expected to start work now.
Hezbollah reservations
Basil wants Hezbollah support to become president once his father-in-law’s tenure ends in October 2022, or if he is incapacitated due to old age given that Aoun is approaching 88 next September.
Both he and Basil have been pushing for a revision of the Mar Mikhail Agreement, Hezbollah reluctance at committing to a Basil presidency. The original agreement made no mention of Basil but he managed to attach himself to it, making his appointment as cabinet minister as one of the many preconditions of the Aoun era.
For starters Hezbollah feels that it cannot make him president before fulfilling a promise it had made to Suleiman Frangieh, head of the Marada Movement and a ranking member of the March 8 Coalition.
He had been promised the presidency back in 2016 but was talked into backing down due to Aoun’s age, on the pretext that he would be Hezbollah’s next choice for president in 2022. They cannot pass him over, yet again, for the sake of Gibran.
Trust factor
Additionally, Hezbollah has little trust in Basil, seeing him as an unreliable ally and political manipulator. They never forgave him for reaching out to Saad Al Hariri from behind their backs back during the parliamentary elections of 2018, nor for equating Syria’s presence in Lebanon with the French occupation of the early 20th century.
Far from being committed to their agenda, he is only using them to advance his own political ambitions. They too have been working with him out of sheer necessity, given that he controls the largest bloc in Parliament and heads one of the two major Christian parties.
Their Christian allies in the Marada Movement control a much smaller bloc and are far less influential in the Christian street, especially when compared to their adversaries in the Lebanese Forces (LF).
American sanctions
Yet despite their reservations and fears, Hezbollah found itself in the same boat with Basil, after the Trump Administration imposed sanctions on him last November. Many expected those sanctions to steer him away from Hezbollah, but what happened was the exact opposite.
Realising that he no other person to turn to, neither at home nor in the neighbourhood, Basil has thrust himself fully into Hasan Nasrallah’s lap, positioning himself as a firm and obedient ally.
He immediately played the victim, claiming that he had been blacklisted by the US for his support of Hezbollah, pleading Nasrallah to throw him a life jacket.
Without political cover from Hezbollah, Basil realises that his political career is finished, having lost plenty of support at home after the October 2019 Revolution. Many of the young people who took to the streets that month unleashed their anger on Basil, accusing him of nepotism.
A set of conditions
With that in mind, Basil ventures into talks with Hezbollah deprived of much of his previous tools and power base. He is the weaker link, unable to impose his will while being forced to accept all of Hezbollah’s dictates, when they start coming.
They will expect a position no less than the one of his father-in-law, when he linked Hezbollah arms to the security of Lebanon. For example, he wants a new agreement with Hezbollah, one that applies to him specifically and by name, but Nasrallah insists on simply amending clauses of the 2016 understanding, rather than writing up a new one.
Although the FPM is now in power and controls a parliamentary bloc of 29 MPs, it is far more vulnerable than in 2006, when the Mar Mikhail Agreement was signed. Aoun came to the negotiation table from a position of strength, having spent years in exile and boasting of a military and political career that dated back to the 1970s.
He was a self-made man who created a power base for himself using his own traits and charisma, hailing from none of the hereditary political families of Lebanon and relying on the support of none of the regional stakeholders like Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.
His supporters obeyed him blindly. When he ordered them to fight the Syrians during the Civil War, they took up arms against the Syrian Army. When he said that it was time to reconcile with Damascus, they followed obediently, with no questions asked.
Basil enjoys none of that obedience or personal charisma or history — and Hezbollah knows that only too well. His one single trait is being the son-in-law of Michel Aoun. Hezbollah viewed Aoun as a political equal, a serious heavyweight with whom it could do business.
That certainly does not apply to Basil.
*Sami Moubayed is a Syrian historian and former Carnegie scholar. He is also author of Under the Black Flag: At the frontier of the New Jihad.

Survivors of Beirut's Explosion Endure Psychological Scars
Associated Press/Monday, 01 February, 2021
Joana Dagher lay unconscious and hemorrhaging under a pile of rubble in her apartment after the massive Beirut port blast in August, on the brink of death. She survived because of the courage of her husband who got her out, the kindness of a stranger who transported her in his damaged car and the help of her sisters during the chaos at the overwhelmed hospital. But Dagher doesn't remember any of that: The 33-year-old mother of two lost her memory for two full months from the trauma she suffered in the explosion, including a cerebral contusion and brain lesions. "I lost my life on August 4," Dagher said. "I lost my house, I lost my memory, I lost two friends," she added, referring to neighbors killed in the explosion. "I lost my mental health, and so I lost everything." The Beirut explosion, which killed more than 200 people and injured more than 6,000, caused wounds on an even wider scale on the mental health of those who lived through it. Dagher is gradually regaining her memory. But another kind of pain lingers.
Though therapy now helps, she said she no longer feels the same. Dagher is usually a calm and independent person, her sister Jihane said. Now she experiences bursts of anger and stress, emotionally shutting down and at times getting aggressive — all signs of post-traumatic stress disorder, according to experts. "The past 6 months have been a purgatory," Jihane said. "When you see someone you love suffer so much, everyone suffers with them, you are helpless." The blast was caused by a fire that ignited nearly 3,000 tons of ammonium nitrate stored in a port warehouse. One of the biggest non-nuclear explosions ever recorded, the force tore through the city, sending people flying across rooms and slicing them with flying glass. Windows and doors were blown out miles away from the epicenter. Even in a country that has seen many wars and bombings, never had so many people — tens of thousands — directly experienced the same traumatizing event at the same time. It came on top of the stress that Lebanese were already feeling from multiple crises, including an unprecedented economic meltdown, the coronavirus pandemic and a feeling of helplessness after nationwide protests against corruption that failed to achieve their goals.
"There are very high levels of anxiety and worry across the population," said Mia Atwi, psychologist and president of Embrace, an organization working on mental health awareness and support. "There is a low mood bordering on clinical depression for the majority of the population." Demand for therapists has ballooned, making it hard to find treatment, especially since many qualified experts are leaving the country. Embrace expanded its clinic after the explosion and still it has a 60-person-long waiting list. It has provided support for 750 people since the blast. Most are experiencing post-explosion symptoms, depression and anxiety, Atwi said. On Embrace's helpline, 67% of the phone calls since August are from people in emotional distress, and 28% had suicidal thoughts. The blast left mental wounds even in those it didn't wound physically.
Najla Fadel, 33, was miraculously unscratched when the blast shattered the glass windows of her house, badly injuring her child's babysitter. In the last months of her pregnancy with her second child, Fadel transported the bleeding woman to the hospital by herself. She has since struggled with nightmares. She often wakes up, heart pounding, thinking the explosion has happened again.
"I jump at any sound and start looking for shelter," she says.
The worst, she said, are thunderstorms and the sound of the Israeli warplanes that regularly violate and fly low through Lebanon's airspace. "A few nights ago, when planes were roaming above Beirut, I slept in the corridor," she said. "This way I am halfway from my kids' room, I can grab them faster and run just in case."Fadel saw a therapist for a while. Many others don't get help. "There are a lot of people neglecting their mental health or don't know what to do," said Souraya Frem, president and co-founder of Cenacle De Lumiere, an organization that after the explosion began offering free mental health support in Beirut. "People are struggling with poverty, how to make ends meet and so they don't see mental health as a priority," Frem said. From Perth, Australia, where she moved after the blast, Sarah Copland said she has been seeing two therapists to cope with her loss.
In the explosion, a shard of glass tore through the tiny chest of her 2-year-old son, Isaac, ending his short life. That day, she said, her life came to a standstill. "My last image of my little boy is something a mother should never see," she said. "That comes into my mind when I least expect it — we are going to do something, and it comes. It is very distressing." At the time, Copland was employed by the U.N. in Beirut. Thousands of miles from Lebanon, the memory haunts her. "The sight or sound of broken glass gives me anxiety," she said. "Lying in bed at night I hear the wind against the windows and that really freaks me out. I freeze up because it reminds of the whishing sound as the explosion came through our windows." Copland's 2-month-old son Ethan keeps her going, she said, but the pain is deep. "Hearing children scream, even if it is in delight, takes me back to the hospital, to Isaac and to the children screaming in pain."
Now in a temporary apartment outside Beirut, Joana Dagher decided to stay in Lebanon, despite the thousands who are leaving. "I want to be close to those I love, to my family and I will not let those politicians remove me from my home or my country, I will stay here to see justice," she said. But like most survivors of that horrific day, there is a fear that never leaves her. "The fear of losing those I love is stronger than ever."
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 01- 02/2021

Pope says he is intent on making Iraq trip despite difficulties
Reuters/Monday 01 February 2021
Pope Francis said on Monday he is intent on making a trip to Iraq next month even if it means many Iraqi Christians won’t be able to see him in person because of COVID-19 restrictions. “I am the pastor of people who are suffering,” he told Catholic New Service (CNS), the news outlet of the US Bishops Conference. Francis said it was important that “they will see the pope is there in their country” even if most would see him only on television because of social distancing requirements. CNS said the 84-year-old pope intended to go ahead with the March 5-8 trip unless there is a serious new wave of coronavirus infection there. The patriarch of Iraq’s Chaldean Catholic Church said last week the pope would meet the country top Shiite Muslim cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. The visit, which eluded Francis’ predecessors, takes place amid deteriorating security in some parts of Iraq and after the first big suicide bombing in Baghdad for three years. CNS did not say if the pope discussed security during an audience granted to its Rome staff on the occasion of the agency’s 100th anniversary. Iraq has been home to Christian communities for centuries. Hundreds of thousands of Christians fled sectarian violence after the fall of Saddam Hussein or were driven out when Islamic State captured much of the north in 2014.

Mossad Director Criticizes Army Chief Over Iran Remarks
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 01 February, 2021
In a surprising development, Mossad director Yossi Cohen attacked Israeli army chief of staff Aviv Kohavi who publicly criticized the US administration’s policy on the nuclear deal with Iran. In his remarks last Tuesday, Kohavi denounced US President Joe Biden’s intentions to rejoin the 2015 nuclear agreement as “bad”. Multiple Israeli sources reported that Cohen described Kohavi's statements as damaging to the Israeli position and its allies, saying they were "irresponsible" and only express his personal views, according to Israeli Army Radio. The sources believed that Cohen could not have acted on his own in criticizing his "brother in arms", noting that he had received the green light from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They pointed out that the verbal attack is the first of its kind in the history of the Israeli military establishment. Netanyahu has already decided to turn a new page in the relations with the Democratic administration to correct some of the past mistakes, in reference to the bad relations that marred the era of former President Barack Obama. An informed source indicated that Netanyahu is aware that he will “clash with Biden” on the Iranian and the Palestinian issues, but he wants to make serious attempts to win the US president over so that he is not responsible for any conflict between them. The PM is trying to persuade the new White House administration to tighten sanctions against Iran, until it submits to international pressure and give up its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, as well as its plans to control regional countries. Netanyahu has appointed Cohen as the chief of a team for this task, after his term as Mossad chief ends in June. A close associate of Cohen revealed that he began practicing this mission as soon as he was informed of it last month. Cohen traveled to Washington during the last days of former President Donald Trump's term and met with a number of Democratic officials. The intelligence chief will travel to Washington again within the next two weeks to meet White House officials, and perhaps Biden himself.

US secretary of state: Iran ‘weeks away from having material to build nuclear bomb’
Roba Obaid/Arab News/February 01/2021
New US secretary of state says Washington wants ‘longer and stronger’ deal to curb Tehran’s behavior
JEDDAH: Iran will be weeks away from building a nuclear bomb if it stays on its current path, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned on Monday. In his first TV interview since his appointment was confirmed last month, Blinken said Tehran was months away from being able to produce enough material for a weapon, but it would be “a matter of weeks” if it continued to breach the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal. The future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program in return for an easing of economic sanctions, is an early foreign policy challenge for the new Biden administration. Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and reimposed sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy, and Tehran has responded by gradually increasing its enrichment of uranium beyond what is permitted under the deal. Blinken said on Monday the US was willing to return to compliance with the JCPOA if Iran did, and then work with US allies and partners on a “longer and stronger” agreement encompassing other issues. Iran has rejected any new negotiations or changes to the participants in the JCPOA, after French President Emmanuel Macron said new talks should include Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom and its Gulf allies believe any enhanced agreement should address Iran’s ballistic missile program, and its regional meddling through proxy militias in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. Blinken’s reference to a timeframe for Iran’s development of a nuclear bomb means the issue must be resolved rapidly, because the US will never allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, political analyst Hamdan Al-Shehri told Arab News. “The US is giving Iran an ultimatum to solve the matter within weeks,” he said. Al-Shehri said the international community was aware that if Iran obtained a nuclear weapon, it would not be alone in the region. “Other countries will not accept that Iran possesses nuclear weapons alone, and remain standing idly by,” he said. “However, although the US is offering to open the door for Iran to return to a deal, entrance is subject to certain conditions,” Al-Shehri said. These included US follow-up to ensure Iran’s compliance, addressing other issues such as ballistic missiles, and involving other countries including Saudi Arabia, he said. Iran would understand the threat and was unlikely to wholly reject the proposal, Al-Shehri said.

Israel wants to setup road links with UAE, says 130,000 tourists visited: Diplomat
Marco Ferrari, Al Arabiya English/Monday 01 February 2021
Israel is looking to set up road links with the UAE to further strengthen the bilateral trade corridor, Emirati state news agency reported on Monday citing an Israeli envoy. Around 130,000 Israeli tourists had visited the UAE since diplomatic relations were established in September's Abraham Accords, added Eitan Naeh, Head of Mission at the newly-opened Israeli Embassy in Abu Dhabi. "Now we are looking into the potential of trailers and lorries carrying goods from the UAE reaching Israel in three days and vice versa in the near future," he said. Trade is currently conducted between the two countries by air, which takes a few hours, or by sea, which takes 16 days. "It all has to be investigated. Business communities in Israel and the UAE are now looking into ways to increase trade. Each country brings its relative advantage. We have trade agreements with the West [US and European Union]. You are an opening to the East. So, it is a huge market," said the 57-year-old diplomat, who arrived in Abu Dhabi a week earlier. The envoy spoke about how Israelis are “very curious people” who “like to travel,” adding that he had spoken with tourism industry leaders in his home country who estimated around 50,000 Israelis were likely travel to the UAE every month. Once COVID-19 is no longer a concern, Naeh also expects many tourists from the UAE to visit Israel. “Israel has got many climate zones, forests and mountains and water bodies, which will attract visitors from the UAE,” he said. "We are very ancient people. We carry with us a long history. We carry that bag on our back, but we’re certainly the kind of people like yourselves [Emiratis] who look very much into the future," he said.
 

Zarif says EU can ‘choreograph’ moves by Iran, US to reach a new nuclear deal
Reuters/Monday 01 February 2021
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sketched out a path on Monday to overcome the US-Iranian impasse over who goes first in returning to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, saying the EU foreign policy chief could “choreograph” the moves. “There can be a mechanism to basically either synchronize it or coordinate what can be done,” Zarif told CNN in an interview. Zarif noted the agreement created a Joint Commission coordinated by the European Union foreign policy chief, now Josep Borrell. Borrell “can ... sort of choreograph the actions that are needed to be taken by the United States and the actions that are needed to be taken by Iran,” Zarif told CNN. The commission includes Iran and the six other parties to the deal: Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. Under the accord, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program to make it harder for it to develop nuclear weapons in return for relief from US and other economic sanctions. Former US president Donald Trump abandoned the deal in 2018 and reimposed US sanctions. US President Joe Biden has said that if Iran returns to strict compliance, Washington will too.

Iran state TV airs launch of newest satellite-carrying rocket
The Associated Press/Monday 01 February 2021
Iranian state TV on Monday aired the launch of the country's newest satellite-carrying rocket, which it said was able to reach a height of 500 kilometers (310 miles). The footage of the solid-liquid-fueled rocket showed the launch taking place during daytime in a desert environment. The report did not say when the launch happened. The rocket, called Zuljanah for the horse of Imam Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, did not launch a satellite into orbit. State TV said the rocket is capable of carrying a 220-kilogram (485-pound) satellite, adding that the three-stage rocket uses solid fuel in the first and second stages and fluid fuel in the third. Iran in the past has used various fluid-fuel satellite carrier rockets to put smaller devices into orbit. Last year, the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard said it used a Qased, or “Messenger,” satellite carrier to put the Noor satellite into space. Iran often coordinates its launches with national holidays. It will celebrate the 42nd anniversary of the Islamic Revolution later in February. Iran says its satellite program, like its nuclear activities, are aimed at scientific research and other civilian applications. The U.S. and other Western countries have long been suspicious of the program because the same technology can be used to develop long-range missiles.

Turkey's President Erdogan says may be time for new constitution
AFP/Monday 01 February 2021
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday it may be time for Turkey to adopt a new constitution, feeding speculation that he could seek a way to extend his rule. Erdogan, 66, has governed Turkey as prime minister or president since 2002, cementing his control over the nation of 83 million people and surviving a failed coup. As prime minister, he pushed through changes to the constitution in 2017 that created an executive presidency and abolished the premiership. He then won the 2018 presidential election, the first of two potential five-year terms. Turkey is scheduled to hold parliamentary and presidential elections in 2023, meaning that his rule would have to end by 2028 if he were re-elected. But after chairing a four-hour cabinet meeting, Erdogan raised the idea of writing a brand new constitution to replace one that Turkey has been using since 1982. It was drafted following a military coup.
"It is clear that the source of Turkey's problems is that constitutions have always been written by putschists," Erdogan said in nationally televised remarks. "It may be time for Turkey to reopen the debate about a new constitution," he said. "If we reach a common understanding with our (ruling coalition) partners, we may take action for a new constitution in the future." Erdogan's AK Party is allied in parliament with ultranationalist MHP. Erdogan added the the drafting of Turkey's new constitution "would have to be done in a transparent manner and the agreed upon text would have to be submitted to the will of the people".Erdogan has never lost an election, but his popularity has been waning since he unleashed a sweeping crackdown after a failed coup in 2016. His jailing of political opponents and assault on civil liberties have been accompanied by economic problems that analysts blame on financial mismanagement. The Turkish lira has fallen sharply since 2018, wiping out people's savings and undermining his support among working class voters who form a part of Erdogan's political base. Soner Cagaptay, Turkey programme director at the Washington Institute, said Erdogan's comments were his "first admission that he may not win Turkey’s next elections held under the new executive-style presidential system." "His likely next step: divide his opposition through culture wars along left-right lines," Cagaptay said in a tweet.
"Turkey is a right-wing dominated country (where Erdogan will) try to build a new majority."
 

Dozens of Former Bush Officials Leave Republican Party
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 1 February, 2021
Dozens of Republicans in former President George W. Bush’s administration are leaving the party, dismayed by a failure of many elected Republicans to disown Donald Trump after his false claims of election fraud sparked a deadly storming of the US Capitol last month, Reuters exclusively reported on Monday.
These officials, some who served in the highest echelons of the Bush administration, said they had hoped that a Trump defeat would lead party leaders to move on from the former president and denounce his baseless claims that the November presidential election was stolen.
But with most Republican lawmakers sticking to Trump, these officials say they no longer recognize the party they served. Some have ended their membership, others are letting it lapse while a few are newly registered as independents, according to a dozen former Bush officials who spoke with Reuters.
“The Republican Party as I knew it no longer exists. I’d call it the cult of Trump,” said Jimmy Gurulé, who was Undersecretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence in the Bush administration.
Kristopher Purcell, who worked in the Bush White House’s communications office for six years, said roughly 60 to 70 former Bush officials have decided to leave the party or are cutting ties with it, from conversations he has been having. “The number is growing every day,” Purcell said.
Their defection from the Republican Party after a lifetime of service for many is another clear sign of how a growing intraparty conflict over Trump and his legacy is fracturing it. The party is currently caught between disaffected moderate Republicans and independents disgusted by the hold Trump still has over elected officials, and Trump’s fervently loyal base. Without the enthusiastic support of both groups, the party will struggle to win national elections, according to polling, Republican officials and strategists. The Republican National Committee referred Reuters to a recent interview its chair Ronna McDaniel gave to the Fox Business channel. “We’re having a little bit of a spat right now. But we are going to come together. We have to,” McDaniel said, predicting the party will unite against the agenda of President Joe Biden, a Democrat. Representatives for Trump did not respond to a request for comment. A representative of former President Bush did not respond to a request for comment. During the Trump presidency Bush made clear he had “retired from politics.”
‘It’s appalling’
More than half of the Republicans in Congress - eight senators and 139 House representatives - voted to block certification of the election just hours after the Capitol siege. Most Republican Senators have also indicated they would not support the impeachment of Trump, making it almost certain that the former president won’t be convicted in his Senate trial. Trump was impeached on Jan. 13 by the Democratic-led House of Representatives on charges of “incitement of insurrection,” the only president to be impeached twice. The unwillingness by party leaders to disavow Trump was the final straw for some former Republican officials. “If it continues to be the party of Trump, many of us are not going back,” Rosario Marin, a former Treasurer of the US under Bush, told Reuters. “Unless the Senate convicts him, and rids themselves of the Trump cancer, many of us will not be going back to vote for Republican leaders.” Two former Bush officials who spoke to Reuters said they believe it is important to stay in the party to rid it of Trump’s influence. One of those, Suzy DeFrancis, a veteran of the Republican Party who served in administrations including those of former presidents Richard Nixon and George W. Bush, said she voted for Biden in November but that breaking the party apart now will only benefit Democrats. “I totally understand why people are frustrated and want to leave the party. I’ve had that feeling for 4 years,” DeFrancis said. But she said it’s critical the party unite around Republican principles such as limited government, personal responsibility, free enterprise and a strong national defense. Purcell said many felt they have no choice, however. He referred to Marjorie Taylor Greene, a freshman Republican congresswoman from Georgia who promotes the QAnon conspiracy theory, which falsely claims that top Democrats belong to a secret governing cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles. Another newly elected Representative, Lauren Boebert from Colorado, has also made supportive statements about QAnon. “We have QAnon members of Congress. It’s appalling,” Purcell said.
 

WHO Slams Critics of Covid-19 Origins Probe
Agence France Presse/February 01/2021
The World Health Organization on Monday blasted critics of its investigation into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic and challenged those claiming to know better to come forward with the smoking gun. A WHO investigative team is in Wuhan, China -- where the first cases were discovered in December 2019 -- trying to piece together how the virus jumped from animals to humans before going on to kill more than two million people. The U.N. agency's emergencies director Michael Ryan hit out at those sniping at the mission, and said people claiming they have information on how the pandemic broke out should emerge from the shadows. Ryan said many critics were saying they "won't accept the report when it comes out", or that there is "other intelligence available that may show different findings" on how the virus broke out. "If you have the answers... please let us know," Ryan told a press conference from the WHO's headquarters in Geneva. He asked how responsible it was "to say you won't accept a report before it's even written? To say that you have intelligence that has not been provided?" The WHO mission comes with heavy political baggage -- China refused the team access until mid-January and there are question marks over what the experts can hope to find, one year on. Beijing is keen to put the focus on its recovery from the outbreak. The team toured a propaganda exhibition celebrating China's recovery from the pandemic in Wuhan on Saturday. Ryan was responding to a question which referenced new US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who earlier Monday told NBC that China was falling "far short of the mark." "China has to step up and make sure that it is being transparent, that it is providing information and sharing information, that it is giving access to international experts and inspectors," Blinken said. "Its failure to do that is a real problem." Ryan said the team in the field deserved international support, and in the meantime, "it's time for people who say and think they have information to start providing it". He added that all infectious disease investigations find information that then throws up further questions."It's a detective story," he said.
- Virology lab visit -
The expert team in Wuhan has now started investigations on the ground, notably visiting the Huanan seafood market where one of the first reported clusters of infections emerged, and the hospital where early patients were treated.
Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO's technical lead on Covid-19, said the team would be visiting the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Former U.S. president Donald Trump pushed an unsubstantiated theory that the virus escaped from the facility. The team are having "very productive discussions with Chinese counterparts, visiting different hospitals around Wuhan", Van Kerkhove said. "They had a very good visit to the market, seeing first-hand the stalls and walking through."Van Kerkhove said they had also met with counterparts from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. "They will visit the Institute of Virology. That is being planned," she added. Meanwhile WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said it was "encouraging" that the global number of new coronavirus cases had fallen for the third week in a row. "It shows this virus can be controlled, even with the new variants in circulation," he said. However, "we have been here before," he warned. "Over the past year, there have been moments in almost all countries when cases declined, and governments opened up too quickly and individuals let down their guard, only for the virus to come roaring back."

Dubai Shuts Bars after Coronavirus Surge
Agence France Presse/February 01/2021
Dubai on Monday ordered bars to close until the end of the month to suppress a spike in coronavirus cases, after tourists flocked to the emirate over the holiday period. The closures, effective from Tuesday, are among a raft of steps "taken in response to rising violations of preventive measures," authorities said in a statement. Indoor venues, including cinemas and sports venues, will have their capacity cut by half. Hotels, swimming pools and private beaches must operate at 70 percent of capacity. Dubai's vast shopping malls must also reduce visitors to 70 percent of usual traffic. Restaurants and cafes are required to close by 1.00 am. "Penalties will be strictly imposed on anyone found posing a risk to public health by deliberately disregarding preventive measures or not observing them properly," the Crisis and Disaster Management committee said. Dubai has sought to manage the pandemic without closing its doors, and reopened to tourism in July. But while masks and social distancing are mandatory, it has not prevented a sharp increase in cases in the new year. Guidelines have been gradually tightened over recent days, and non-essential surgery in hospitals has been suspended. The United Arab Emirates, of which Dubai is part, has recorded 859 deaths from Covid-19 since the pandemic began. Daily recorded cases of infection in the UAE rose to nearly 4,000 recently, but on Monday numbers were down to 2,730. The UAE says it has already administered some 3.4 million doses of vaccine to its population of about 10 million.

U.N. Security Council to Hold Emergency Meeting on Myanmar Tuesday
Agence France Presse/February 01/2021
The U.N. Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday on the situation in Myanmar, following the coup by the country's military, according to an official calendar of events. The meeting, to be held by videoconference, will take place behind closed doors, says the calendar -- which was approved Monday by council members. The U.N. special envoy for Myanmar, Swiss diplomat Christine Schraner Burgener, is expected to brief the council on the latest developments at the meeting.Myanmar's military seized power on Monday in a bloodless coup, detaining democratically elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other top politicians -- sparking an international outcry. Britain, which holds the rotating Council presidency for the month of February, had long planned to hold a meeting on Myanmar this week, but moved it up given the circumstances. The country's U.N. envoy, Barbara Woodward, told reporters that she hoped to have "as constructive a discussion as possible on Myanmar and look at a range of measures, with the idea of respecting the people's will expressed in the vote and releasing civil society leaders." "We'll want to consider measures that will move us towards that end," Woodward said, while noting there were no specific measures in mind at the current time. Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party won November elections in a landslide, but the military now claims those polls were tainted by fraud. Earlier, at his daily press conference, UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said: "What is important is that the international community speak with one voice."

Kosovo Establishes Israel Ties, to Open Embassy in Jerusalem
Agence France Presse/February 01/2021
Israel and Kosovo established diplomatic ties on Monday, with the Muslim-majority territory recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital, putting it at odds with the rest of the Islamic world. In a ceremony held over Zoom in Jerusalem and Pristina, Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi and his counterpart from Kosovo Meliza Haradinaj Stublla signed a joint declaration establishing ties. Ashkenazi said he had approved Kosovo's "formal request to open an embassy in Jerusalem."Israel last year inked a series of deals brokered by former U.S. president Donald Trump to establish diplomatic relations with Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.  Those agreements, known collectively as the Abraham Accords, triggered criticism in many majority-Muslim countries. But the Arab parties to the Abraham Accords have all maintained that their diplomatic missions in Israel will be in Tel Aviv. That position is in line with global consensus against recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital until the Palestinian conflict is resolved.  In September, Trump announced at a summit originally organized to strike a deal between Kosovo and its former war foe Serbia that Kosovo and the Jewish state would establish diplomatic ties. But the most eye-catching part of the summit was an announcement by Kosovo that it would mutually recognize Israel, and Serbia saying it would follow Washington's lead in moving its embassy to Jerusalem. So far, however, Serbia has failed to honor its pledge, with some officials claiming the deal was non-binding. Kosovo also said it was ready to set up its Israel mission in Jerusalem, in exchange for Israel's recognition, as it seeks to further legitimize its 2008 declaration of independence from Serbia and statehood.
 

Report: Government Stalemate ‘Awaits’ Macron’s Visit
Naharnet/February 01/2021
The deadlocked formation of a government in Lebanon reportedly awaits an expected visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Beirut in a bid to ease the hurdles, al-Anbaa electronic magazine reported on Monday. MP Ali Darwsih, of al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc said in remarks to the magazine that the “crisis will get more complex, and the differences (between the President and PM-designate) are going to widen, amid attempts of some to take advantage of the stage and send coded messages.”Darwish, of the PM-designate Saad Hariri’s bloc, belives their will be “no progress” on the governmnet formation file, “awaiting the visit of Macron to Lebanon,” he told the daily, describing the situation in Lebanon as very bad. The MP condemned the incidents in the norethern city of Tripoli, saying: “Al-Mustaqbal Movemnet seeks to alleviate the pain and suffering of people. The riots and the burning of the municipal building in Tripoli are unacceptable.”On the other hand, sources of the Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc, told the magazine in a phone call that the bloc refuses to engage in a dispute with Bkirki after the Patriarch’s fiery remarks.“Rahi could be right in most of what he referred to because without forming a government, the country cannot continue. But the problem lies with the PM- designate, not the President who is keen on the constitution and preserving everyone's rights,” they said. Ain el-Tineh sources however told the magazine that Speaker Nabih Berri is ready to offer any assisstance possible to ease the formation process, but that sadly the problem lies with someone else. On Macron’s visit to Lebanon, they said the French president is welcome to vsisit Lebanonn any time.

Jared Kushner, Avi Berkowitz nominated for Nobel peace prize for Israel deals
Reuters, Washington/Monday 01 February 2021
Former White House senior adviser Jared Kushner and his deputy, Avi Berkowitz, were nominated on Sunday for the Nobel Peace Prize for their role in negotiating four normalization deals between Israel and Arab nations known as the “Abraham Accords.” The deals were announced in a four-month span between mid-August and mid-December and were the most significant diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East in 25 years as the region girds for a prolonged confrontation with Iran. National Security Advisor Meir Ben-Shabbat, and US National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien and US President Trump's senior adviser Jared Kushner board the Israeli flag carrier El Al's airliner as they fly to Abu Dhabi.  Nominating the pair of former deputies to then-President Donald Trump was American attorney Alan Dershowitz, who was eligible to do so in his capacity as a professor emeritus of Harvard Law School. Dershowitz had defended Trump in his first impeachment trial last year and said in a Jan. 20 comment in the Wall Street Journal that the Senate should dismiss the article of impeachment against Trump over the Jan. 6 storming of the US Capitol as he is no longer president.
Kushner, who is Trump’s son-in-law, and Berkowitz, who was the Middle East envoy, were key figures in negotiating deals between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. In a statement, Kushner said he was honored to be nominated for the prize, which will be awarded in October.
President Joe Biden’s administration is expected to review all national security deals struck during the Trump administration, including arms packages for the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Some lawmakers have complained about the Morocco deal because, to win the nation’s agreement, the US recognized its sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara. Trump left office on Jan. 20 under a cloud of controversy, potentially affecting whether the two aides would be awarded the Nobel.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 01- 02/2021

A Drop of Vaccine, a Drop of Hope
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/February 01/2021
We are tired of counting the losses and updating the toll of casualties and new infections. We have exhausted our ability to mourn and lament. We have gotten used to the times of cruelty, watching cities betrayed by death, losing their colors and fading like dark caves. Despair casts its dark shadow over the streets, where you can only hear the sad echoes of sirens.
We are tired. This global war that emerged from China’s Wuhan is too much for us to bear. Humankind did not commit a sin worthy of such a merciless punishment. This is worse than everything we have read of the fiercest and cruelest imaginations. As if a mysterious leader of an endless army was invading cities and countryside, lands and seas. It is more horrifying than Hulagu and harsher than Genghis Khan.
The options are limited. Immediate death or systematic agony. Falling into the grip of viruses is more severe than being trapped by intelligence agencies in the custody of torture masters.
We are tired. We got used to applauding the achievements and sacrifices of the medical body, which are enormous and mighty. This war is intolerable. It’s pure killing without any compensation or sympathy. You numbly receive the news of the death of a lover, friend or stranger, but you can do nothing. You are not allowed to bid them farewell or hug them goodbye. No flower is thrown and no mother, sister or a friend can caress the coffin. This global war is tougher than everything we have ever known or read.
The world is preparing for an unprecedented workshop. The number of deaths has exceeded two million, while infections have topped 100 million. It is difficult to provide an accurate figure for economic losses, as they accumulate with the passing hours and exceed even those scenarios that we had described as exaggerated at the beginnings of the ordeal. Experts, who said months ago that the current crisis was more dangerous than the financial collapse that the world saw at the end of the first decade of the 21st century, go further today in reading the numbers.
Some of say that it’s the worst crisis to hit the globe since World War II, while others stress that the planet has not known anything like it in over a whole century. It does not take much effort to prove the horror of the disaster. Human losses are countless, as are the pictures that will be hung in homes, serving as reminders of those days that were burdened with feelings of fear, isolation and separation from loved ones and friends.
The human being was confident and busy with his daily life when the epidemic broke out and raised difficult questions about safety, danger, life and death, the efficiency of the health system, and the ability of scientists to allow the world able to confront the deadly beast. What we are going through is not easy at all. Every person is a potential source of danger. Every encounter can lead you to the hospital, or possibly farther. Watch out. This is not a time for handshakes, nor a time for hugs. Cuddling your grandchildren is a danger to you and to them. If feelings of longing prevail, your son comes to the garden to greet his mother from afar and behind his mask. The mother keeps herself collected and is overwhelmed with the broadcasters’ advice and experts’ warnings.
You have no solution but to be confined to your home. When you go out, you are armed with masks and disinfectants. Let go of the talk of eye contact and body language. You are a source of danger to your colleagues, as they are to you. Danger is everywhere. In your car. In the parking. In the elevator. In the office…Worst of all are the newspapers – the simplest of all pleasures – that have in turn become a source of threat rather than the news.
Danger is the master of the city and the lord of judgments. Going to stores is alarming. Restaurants closed their doors to clients. Cafes are tired and waning, as they wait for customers. In front of shops that must be opened to ward off hunger, people are spaced out in gloomy lines, exchanging cautious looks, as if everyone is trying to find out where the dreaded virus lies. The number of those venturing out to the nearby park decreased. They are frightened by stories of virus mutations that have an exceptional ability to kill and spread, as if they were new strains of missiles preparing to strike civilian targets.
Nothing lights the darkness except for the hope that the vaccine will arrive and the hour of immunity approaches. This nightmare took the world by surprise. People did not expect a danger of this kind to arise at a time when man continues to unravel the secrets of the universe, shrinking the space that separates us from the hidden and the unknown. People believed that these continuous scientific and technological revolutions can have a decisive and swift response to any danger. It is the confidence that the people of this century had in the scientific breakthroughs.
We are tired of mourning and lamenting. We need light to get out of this tunnel. We need a vaccine drop that will help us fight the virus that caused panic and death. Scientists did not disappoint and are preparing vaccines at record speed. We need a drop of hope from respectable governments to restore the effectiveness of the fractured economies. We need efficient and honest governments to address the massive waves of poverty unleashed by the pandemic tsunami and to derive lessons, especially since experts warn that the coronavirus will not be the last killer.

Why Tunisia… Despite Everything?
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/February 01/2021
Deadly is the feeling of hopelessness, that change is impossible regardless of its champions’ actions. This is the contemporary Arab condition. As the tenth anniversaries of the Arab Spring and their defeats pass successively, something akin to fated submission spreads throughout the region: we are predestined to remain as we are. The young say this, and their seniors nod their heads in agreement.
The African Americans in the US had been stricken by this frustration for a long time: so long as our faces are black, we will remain where we are. This sentiment did not begin to change until the sixties, with the achievements of the Civil Rights Movement led by Martin Luther King. Before that, it seemed to some among them that the only solution was migrating from the “white” US to “black” Africa; that is, changing the field of action before taking any actions. The African state of Liberia was initially established for this purpose, to become a colony that black Americans would move to. Marcus Garvey and the Rastafarians also advocated the “return to Africa,” to where they would find their “roots.”
The Jews of Europe underwent a similar, though harsher, experience: their emancipation after the French revolution did not avert their vulnerability to anti-Semitism during the “Dreyfus Affair” more than a century after their emancipation. Jewish intellectuals’ bets on Socialist and Communist movements paving the way for radical equality did not deter Stalinist anti-Semitism. Jews’ integration in Germany, which surpassed that of all other Jewish communities in Europe, was rewarded with the rise of Nazism and gas chambers. Even in the US, McCarthyism targeted their intellectuals and filmmakers, who had, in Hollywood, created America’s image of itself. The Zionist Movement also found that the solution lay with Jewish migration to Palestine. At the start, the movement was very weak. It was difficult for the Zionists to find a European city where they could hold their founding conference. But it gained strength in parallel with the many tragedies that would befall the Jews.
There is something Sisyphean about the case of the African Americans, and even more so in the case of the European Jewry: in the myth, Zeus punishes Sisyphus by condemning him to continuously lifting a massive rock to a mountain, with the rock rolling back to the bottom when he approaches the peak. This is how his life would be forever. Arriving and bringing the rock to its location are forbidden. Impossibility is the only horizon. Hope is meaningless.
This extremely intense experience goes beyond political occasions or the cycles of violence that accompany the conflict between perpetrators and victims. It speaks to human consciousness’s most pessimistic proclivity, the sentiment that man is pure evil and that “making the world better is impossible.” We deserve what had been written for us. As for human action, it does nothing; worse yet, nothing good can be hoped for from humanity itself. Tomorrow is no better than today, but yesterday is beyond doubt the best of all.
We could interpret some aspects of that phenomena as a result of the defeats the Arab revolutions have been dealt: we understand, for example, the phenomenon of millions’ migration and seeking refuge in countries where human action is assumed to be of more consequence. We understand that in these countries people can make an impact and change things through this or that action, and that tomorrow could be different from today and undoubtedly different from yesterday…
People accordingly seek refuge in a place where human striving is respected, where life itself is hence respected.
We also understand, in this nightmarish climate, phenomena like ISIS as the crowning achievement of the loss of hope in humans and their actions, as a declaration of our wretchedness everywhere and at all times. ISIS flourished in the climate of decay left by millions who were transformed into refugees and the accompanying death, imprisonment and dispersal that struck the best of this region’s young men and women.
The Lebanese, today, are among the peoples of the world most afflicted by this despondency: one of the worst regimes imaginable in its plunder, corruption, incompetence and apathy, weighs down on them as an unprecedented humanitarian and social crisis grinds the country. With that, change, minimal change, is impossible. This, in general, is a precious gift to those who promote the idea of “Arab exceptionalism,” who said early on, with rhetoric of various degrees of racism, that Arabs and democracy are two opposites that cannot meet.
Under the weight of this heavy burden, the Tunisian experiment’s success or failure ceases to be mere political news. If it were to succeed, it would be an exception to the exception that negates the divergent judgments that claim Arabs and democracy cannot come together.
True, Tunisia is suffering gravely from its challenges, topped by an extremely grave economic situation that has been exacerbated by declining economic conditions around the world. However, with that, it remains the only narrow opportunity available for Arabs to say that their actions can have an impact and that life on earth is not inferior to earth itself: it rotates and does not stop.
Will this experience succeed despite everything, and will it grant us the proof of innocence we need to be sure of what ought to be a certainty?

American Universities Declare War on Military History
Max Hastings/Bloomberg/February 01/2021
The world applauds the scientists who have created vaccines to deliver humanity from Covid-19. One certainty about our future: There will be no funding shortfall for medical research into pandemics.
Now, notice a contradiction. War is also a curse, responsible for untold deaths. Humans should do everything possible to mitigate it. And even if scientists cannot promise a vaccine, the obvious place to start working against future conflicts is by researching the causes and courses of past ones.
Yet in centers of learning across North America, the study of the past in general, and of wars in particular, is in spectacular eclipse. History now accounts for a smaller share of undergraduate degrees than at any time since 1950. Whereas in 1970, 6% of American male and 5% of female students were history majors, the respective percentages are now less than 2% and less than 1%, respectively.
Fredrik Logevall, a distinguished Harvard historian and author of seminal works on Vietnam, along with a new biography of John F. Kennedy, remarked to me on the strangeness of this, given that the US is overwhelmingly the most powerful, biggest-spending military nation on earth. “How this came to be and what it has meant for America and the world is surely of surpassing historical importance,” he said. “Yet it’s not at the forefront of research among academic historians in this country.”
The revulsion from war history may derive not so much from students’ unwillingness to explore the violent past, but from academics’ reluctance to teach, or even allow their universities to host, such courses. Some dub the subject “warnography,” and the aversion can extend to the study of international relations. Less than half of all history departments now employ a diplomatic historian, against 85% in 1975. As for war, as elderly scholars retire from posts in which they have studied it, many are not replaced: the roles are redefined.
An eminent historian recently told me of a young man majoring in science at Harvard who wanted to take humanities on history, including the US Civil War. He was offered only one course — which addressed the history of humans and their pets.
Paul Kennedy of Yale, author of one of the best-selling history books of all time, “The Rise and Fall of The Great Powers,” is among many historians who deplore what is, or rather is not, going on. He observed to me that while some public universities, such as Ohio State and Kansas State, have strong program in the history of war, “It’s in the elite universities that the subject has gone.”
“Can you imagine Chicago, or Berkeley, or Princeton having War Studies departments?” he asked. “Military history is the most noxious of the ‘dead white male’ subjects, and there’s also a great falling away in the teaching of diplomatic, colonial and European political history.”
Kennedy notes that war studies are highly popular with students, alumni and donors, “but the sticking point is with the faculty — where perhaps only a small group are openly hostile, but a larger group don’t think the area is important enough.”
Harvard offers few history courses that principally address the great wars of modern times. Many faculties are prioritizing such subjects as culture, race and ethnicity. Margaret Macmillan, of the University of Toronto and Oxford, observes that war is one of the great cataclysmic events, alongside revolution, famine and financial collapse, that can change history.
As the author of the bestseller “Peacemakers,” an epochal study of the 1919 Versailles conference, she has written about the decline in university courses on conflict: “Our horror at the phenomenon itself has affected the willingness to treat it as a serious subject for scholarship. An interest in war is somehow conflated with approval for it.”
Mindless mudslingers have attacked her as a war-lover for making the observation — commonplace among scholars of the subject — that conflicts can bring scientific or social benefits to mankind.
Tami Davis Biddle, a professor at the US Army War College, has written, “Unfortunately, many in the academic community assume that military history is simply about powerful men — mainly white men —fighting each other and/or oppressing vulnerable groups.”
Universities excuse themselves for shunning history by citing the need to address contemporary subjects such as as emotions, food and climate change. Some also urge that students believe they can better serve their own interests — and justify tuition costs — by choosing vocational majors that will enhance their employability. Yet Logevall’s Vietnam is one of the most popular history courses at Harvard.
History sells prodigiously in the world’s bookstores. I have produced a dozen works about conflict, and my harshest critic would struggle to claim that these reflect an enthusiasm for it. I often quote a Norwegian World War II Resistance hero, who wrote in 1948, “Although wars bring adventures that stir the heart, the true nature of war is composed of innumerable personal tragedies and sacrifices, wholly evil and not redeemed by glory.”
Those words do not represent an argument for pacifism. Our societies must be willing, when necessary, to defend themselves in arms. But our respective presidents and prime ministers might less readily adopt kinetic solutions — start shooting — if they possessed a better understanding of the implications.
Before resorting to force, governments, as well as military commanders, should always ask: “What are our objectives? And are they attainable?” Again and again — in recent memory, in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya — those questions were neither properly asked nor answered, with consequences we know. Governments succumb to what I call gesture strategy. Part of the trouble lies with the military, sometimes over-eager to demonstrate “the utility of force,” or rather, to justify their stupendous budgets. More often, however, blame lies with politicians ignorant of the difficulties of leveraging F-35s, cruise missiles, drone aircraft and combat infantry to produce a desired political outcome.
It is extraordinary that so many major US universities renounce, for instance, study of the Indochina experience, which might assist a new generation not to do it again. Marine General Walt Boomer, a distinguished Vietnam vet, said to me five years ago, when I was researching that war: “It bothers me that we didn’t learn a lot. If we had, we wouldn’t have invaded Iraq.” Biddle has written: “The US military does not send itself to war. Choices about war and peace are made by civilians — civilians who, increasingly, have no historical or analytical frameworks to guide them. They know little or nothing about the requirements of the Just War tradition … the logistical, geographical and physical demands of modern military operations.”
North America’s great universities should be ashamed of their pusillanimity. War is no more likely to quit our planet than are pandemics. The academics who spurn its study are playing ostriches. Their heads look no more elegant, buried in the sand.

IDF chief of staff warns of return to Iran nuclear deal, details response to proxies
Joe Truzman/Long War Journal/January 01/2021
On Tuesday, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff Aviv Kochavi warned that a return to the Iran deal would be unacceptable and hinted of possible military action against Iranian nuclear sites. Kochavi also detailed the IDF’s response to a potential conflict with Iranian-backed militant groups in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. Speaking at an Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conference, Kochavi made an unexpected statement about re-entry by the Biden administration into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal.
“I would like to clarify my position regarding the JCPOA: Even if an improved agreement is reached, it will be a bad agreement at the operational and strategic level. Therefore, such an agreement must not be enabled,” Kochavi said.
The renouncement of the JCPOA by one of Israel’s top military officials is remarkable and breaks with assessments made by former Israeli defense officials who’ve previously supported the deal. It also signals that efforts made by the Biden administration to revive the nuclear deal could ultimately be rebuffed by Israel, thus leading to a possible military confrontation with Iran. Furthermore, adding to the probability of a military confrontation, Kochavi stated he had instructed the Israeli military to ready operational plans to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities in the event that a political solution failed to stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb.“I have instructed the IDF to prepare several operational plans in addition to existing ones, which we will develop throughout the coming year. The power to initiate them lies with the political echelon. However, the offensive options need to be prepared, ready and on the table,” he stated.
Kochavi also warned that militant groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas were using the civilian population to shield their military infrastructure and weapons. Kochavi then detailed the IDF’s response against militant assets by saying it would strike launchers hidden inside civilian homes in order to prevent harm to Israeli citizens. “The enemy chose to entrench itself and its weapons, including missiles and rockets, in urban areas. Striking a single missile launcher embedded inside or next to a populated house will prevent damage to an apartment building in Israel, and thus prevent harm to scores of Israeli civilians,” Kochavi said.

Israel could find itself in an unfavorable position
Despite Kochavi’s critical views about the nuclear deal with Iran, it would be in the interest of Israel to publicly support the Biden administration’s efforts – even if a deal isn’t ultimately reached – one that satisfies it and that of its allies in the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia.
By opposing a renewed nuclear deal Israel risks isolation and may find itself in the unfavorable position of attacking Iran’s nuclear infrastructure without its chief ally, the United States. Although Israel has had success in operating independently in military theaters such as Syria, some of its most successful operations have come from military cooperation and the sharing of intelligence with the United States. [See FDD’s Long War Journal report, Chief Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh assassinated near Tehran.]
Over the coming months Israel’s political echelon will have to decide if it will publicly support the Biden administration’s attempts to reach a renewed nuclear deal with Iran or continue to reject it and further position itself for a probable confrontation that may leave it in an isolated position to launch an attack with little guarantee of a successful outcome.
*Joe Truzman is a contributor to FDD's Long War Journal.

With Trump Gone and COVID-19 Vaccines Arriving, Iran-China Trade Will Flourish in 2021
Saeed Ghasseminejad/Policy Brief/FDD/January 01/2021
New data from Beijing show that China’s imports last year from the Islamic Republic fell to their lowest level since 2005; meanwhile, China’s exports to Iran reached their lowest level since 2009. However, the Biden administration’s impending reversal of President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy, coupled with the possible end of the pandemic, puts Tehran and Beijing on a path to expand trade and investment in 2021 and beyond.
China imported $6.4 billion from Iran in 2020, down more than half from $13.43 billion a year earlier. Beijing exported $8.51 billion to Iran, down from $9.59 billion in 2019 and a 39 percent drop from the 2018 level of $14.03 billion, according to China’s customs data. The combination of plunging imports and lesser declines in exports means China had a $2.1 billion trade surplus with Iran in 2020, a sharp contrast with China’s $7.7 billion trade deficit in 2018.
Low oil prices and a reduction in China’s oil imports from Iran drove the shift from deficit to surplus. According to Chinese trade data, imports of crude petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals dropped from $15 billion in 2018 to $7.08 billion in 2019 and $1.3 billion in 2020.
Despite reports that Tehran circumvents sanctions by exporting a significant amount of oil to China through Malaysia, the Chinese data do not bear this out. China imported $4.8 billion of crude, HS code 2709, from Malaysia in 2018, or 2 percent of its total crude imports. HS code refers to the Harmonized System, an international standard system of coding to classify traded products. The numbers were similar in 2020: $3.7 billion, or 2.1 percent of total imports. Even if there are some re-exports of Iranian crude via Malaysia, they barely compensate for the $13.7 billion decrease in direct Iranian exports over the past two years, a plunge that has reduced Iran’s share of Chinese crude imports from 6.2 to 0.7 percent.
There are similar stories about Venezuelan oil going to China through Malaysia, yet once again, the growth in the value of crude imports from Malaysia is less than the decline in imports from Venezuela, not to mention the combined exports Iran and Venezuela have lost since 2018. Even if one examines a broader basket, HS Code 27, that includes mineral fuels, oils, and waxes, this relationship holds true. There is no doubt that Iran has been exporting some oil to China through trans-shipment, but it is nowhere close to what Iran has lost, in terms of value and volume, over the last two years. Of course, it is possible that Chinese statistics deliberately understate the extent of crude imports from both Malaysia and Iran, or that Beijing employs other irregular accounting practices to reduce the figures.
Iran’s trade balance with China also deteriorated because Beijing’s surging 2019 purchases of plastics and rubber, a key export for Iran, simply evaporated. Those purchases fell from $2.35 billion in 2018 to $2.14 billion in 2020. China’s imports of non-oil minerals also dropped in the 2018–2020 period, from $2 billion to $478 million. China’s 2020 imports of metals amounted to $842 million, above the figure for 2018. Both non-oil minerals and metals have been under pressure from sectoral designations and enforcement actions by the U.S. Treasury Department since 2019.
With Trump gone and Washington’s pressure campaign ending, and with the prospect of the decline of the COVID-19 threat through vaccination and better treatments, Iran-China trade will likely flourish in 2021. China is in a favorable position, more than America’s European allies, to reap the benefits of Tehran’s access to world financial markets and of the world’s access to Iran’s market. Throughout the maximum pressure campaign, China helped to keep Tehran afloat.
The Chinese Communist Party, in rhetoric perhaps the new administration’s primary foreign policy concern, will probably benefit the most from President Joe Biden’s efforts to restore President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal by lifting sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
*Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP), Iran Program, and China Program. For more analysis from Saeed, CEFP, the Iran Program, and the China Program, please subscribe HERE. Follow Saeed on Twitter @SGhasseminejad. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Biden national security adviser suggests fast timeline to rejoin Iran deal
Anne Gearan/The Washington Post/January 01/2021
Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s new national security adviser, helped shape the Iran nuclear deal struck in 2015.
President Biden is eyeing an urgent restoration of the international nuclear deal with Iran as a first step to deal with a range of threats from that country, new national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday, suggesting a faster timeline than the administration has previously outlined.
Sullivan did not mention Biden’s oft-stated precondition that Iran make the first move by rolling back nuclear activities to come back into compliance with terms of the 2015 deal. Iran is closer to building a bomb now than it was when President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the deal, and putting the nuclear program “in a box” is the first imperative, Sullivan said.
“We are going to have to address Iran’s other bad behavior, malign behavior, across the region, but from our perspective, a critical early priority has to be to deal with what is an escalating nuclear crisis as they move closer and closer to having enough fissile material for a weapon,” Sullivan said. “And we would like to make sure that we reestablish some of the parameters and constraints around the program that have fallen away over the course of the past two years.”
Containing Iran’s ability to produce bombmaking nuclear material was the central rationale the Obama administration applied in seeking the deal that Sullivan helped to shape.
A decision about whether or when to return to the deal, as well as a potential ­follow-on agreement that could include new concessions or promises to Iran, is one of the first major foreign policy tests for the new administration.
As a 2020 presidential candidate, Biden committed to returning to the international compact that Trump had run in 2016 on reversing. After Trump pulled the United States out in 2018, Iran began breaking its obligations under the agreement formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Biden set the condition that Iran would have to return to complying with the agreement first and said a restored deal would then be a starting point for negotiation of a larger agreement that addresses long-standing concerns over Iran’s ballistic missile capability, its support for terrorism, and aggressions toward Israel and Persian Gulf neighbors.
Sullivan mentioned those concerns in remarks to the United States Institute of Peace and said the threats have only gotten worse because of Trump’s decision.
“Our view is that if we can get back to diplomacy and can put Iran’s nuclear program in a box, that will create a platform upon which to build a global effort, including partners and allies in the region and in Europe and elsewhere, to take on the other significant threats Iran poses, including on the ballistic missile issue,” Sullivan said. Europe sees a narrow window for Biden to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal . Sullivan did not spell out a preferred timeline, and the issue is now being debated among White House and State Department advisers. One option would be a push to rebuild the original deal, another might be to work with allies to construct an interim or bridge agreement.
Sullivan’s emphasis on a pressing need to contain Iran suggests an accelerated response, though he left open what that might be.
“No one should over-read these comments,” a senior White House official said Saturday. “Mr. Sullivan made a general statement that the US wants to put Iran’s nuclear program back in the box - which we do. Notably, he did not even mention rejoining the JCPOA, let alone in what sequence.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has adopted a skeptical tone, saying on his first full day in office Wednesday that a U.S. return to the deal is still far off.
“Iran is out of compliance on a number of fronts. And it would take some time, should it make the decision to do so, for it to come back into compliance and time for us then to assess whether it was meeting its obligations,” Blinken said during a news conference at the State Department. “We’re not there yet, to say the least.”With key decisions about the pace and scope of U.S. outreach on hold, the administration on Friday named former Obama administration Middle East adviser and veteran diplomat Robert Malley to be a special envoy on Iran.

Is peace between Iran and Israel inevitable?
Victoria Coatesal and Len Khodorkovsky/Jerusalem Post/January 01/2021
The US should be ready to provide the bridge between these two great peoples and lead the Middle East into a new Cyrus Accords-like era.
The recent momentum toward peace in the Middle East has been breathtaking. Multiple US-brokered deals between Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, known as the Abraham Accords, are creating a new reality in one of the world’s most combustible neighborhoods that, with US leadership, promises a more prosperous and secure future for Arabs and Jews alike.
An impetus behind this historic normalization of relations between the Jewish state and its Muslim neighbors is practical. They face a common threat from the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has been labeled by the State Department as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism for nearly four decades.
Driven by a revolutionary theology, the Islamic Republic’s regime has been metastasizing across the region since its founding in 1979. From funding and arming anti-Israel terrorists, to blowing up Saudi oil facilities, to pirating commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, Iran is the Middle East’s preeminent menace. Not only is it out of step with the Abraham Accords, Iran is the neighborhood’s chief purveyor of discord.
The regime in Tehran, however, does not represent the Iranian people. A glaring example of this chasm was on display after a US drone strike killed Iran’s top terrorist, Qasem Soleimani. Despite the mullahs’ efforts to turn this murderer into a martyr, Iranians ripped down the propaganda posters glorifying him. They also rejected the regime’s attempts to stir up hate against the United States and Israel. Videos from Iran showed average citizens going out of their way to avoid stepping on the US and Israeli flags printed on the ground outside of shopping malls, schools, and mosques – even on the day of Soleimani’s funeral.
The fact of the matter is that the Iranian people have more pressing issues at hand than the regime’s clumsy attempts at propaganda. Tehran’s sponsorship of terrorism, pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles to deliver them, and unconscionable hostage taking triggered the most crushing economic sanctions in history, crippling Iran’s energy, financial and industrial sectors, among others. Despite the immense resources of Iran, Iranians cannot even find the basics of food and housing, let alone dream of economic opportunities.
But this does not have to be. One of the motivating factors behind the Abraham Accords was a new realization in the Arab world that their populations are more interested in pursuing hi-tech and entrepreneurial opportunities than they are in hating the Jews – and that Israel is actually the regional partner of choice in these areas.
In coming months, the Iranian people will see ever more lucrative deals and new enterprises emerging that may well make them wonder why Tehran relentlessly pursues bigotry, violence and hate instead of peace. This would hardly be surprising. The Islamic Republic’s antipathy toward Jews, Christians, Baha’is and, for that matter, Sunni Muslims stands in contrast with Iran’s otherwise long, rich tradition of tolerance dating back to Cyrus the Great.
The ancient Persian leader was known for his openness and acceptance. He was a proponent of human rights and religious freedom. And unlike Ayatollah Khamenei, who seeks to annihilate the Jewish State of Israel, Cyrus liberated the Jewish people from Babylonia. It’s no wonder the leadership of the Islamic Republic considers Cyrus Day a “Western-Zionist” plot, and attempts to prevent Iranians from visiting his tomb.
Wouldn’t it be poetic if the era of Abraham Accords could be followed by the era of Cyrus Accords? After all, Israelis and Iranians have a lot in common. Both peoples are highly educated. Both are technologically savvy. Both have millennia-old traditions that have successfully intertwined in the past. And both crave peace in the (not-too-distant) future.
Given the Iranian regime’s pathological antisemitism and belligerence, the notion of Cyrus Accords may seem far-fetched. But this regime is a historical anomaly. The day when the descendants of Abraham and the descendants of Cyrus will reconnect in peace and prosperity may be much sooner than we think.
The United States should be ready to provide the bridge between these two great peoples and lead the Middle East into a new era.
*Victoria Coates is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Policy and former deputy national security advisor for Middle
Eastern and North African Affairs.
*Len Khodorkovsky is the former deputy assistant secretary of state for digital strategy and senior adviser to the US special
representative for Iran.

Russia: Putin Shoots Himself in the Foot
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/February 01/2021
Navalny has been in and out of Russian jails more than ten times since 2011, when he first became the face of Russian opposition to Putin and coined the phrase that the ruling United Russia party was "the party of crooks and thieves".
"We came up with this investigation, while I was in intensive care, but we immediately agreed that we would release it when I returned home, to Russia, to Moscow, because we do not want the main character of this film to think that we are afraid of him and that I will tell about his worst secret while I am abroad." — Alexei Navalny, YouTube video, "Putin's Palace", January 19, 2021.
Thousands demonstrated -- and were arrested by police armed with stun guns and batons -- this weekend as well, voicing anger over falling living standards, shrinking political freedoms, "corruption, a skewed court system" and a political system that is rigged before "another round of fraudulent elections," possibly this spring and no later than next fall.
Putin, ironically, may largely have himself to thank. If it had not been for the arrest and jailing of Navalny, the current protest movement might have remained dormant.
Across Russian, thousands demonstrated -- and were arrested by police armed with stun guns and batons -- this weekend as well, in support of jailed opposition leader Aleksei Navalny, and voicing anger over falling living standards, shrinking political freedoms, corruption, "a skewed court system and rigged elections" and a political system that is rigged before "another round of fraudulent elections", possibly this spring and no later than next fall. Pictured: Police detain a protestor in Moscow on January 31, 2021.
Aleksei Navalny, opposition leader, anti-corruption activist and fierce critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, returned to Russia on January 17 after recovering for five months in Germany from having been poisoned with a military grade nerve agent, Novichok. It was an event widely reported to have been an assassination attempt by Russian state agents.
Upon landing, Navalny was immediately arrested on charges that he had violated the parole terms from a suspended sentence received in 2014 for alleged fraud, a conviction that the European Court of Human Rights ruled was "arbitrary and manifestly unreasonable".
Upon his arrest, Navalny was denied access to a lawyer, and -- after a hearing that took place in a police station, which only pro-Kremlin media were allowed to attend -- ­­jailed for an initial term of 30 days. He is due to go on trial on February 2.
"It seems," Navalny said about the proceedings, "that the grandpa in the bunker is so afraid of everything that they demonstratively ripped apart the code of criminal procedure and threw it in the trash."
Navalny has been in and out of Russian jails more than ten times since 2011, when he first became the face of Russian opposition to Putin and coined the phrase that the ruling United Russia party was "the party of crooks and thieves". In 2018, the European Court of Human Rights found that the Russian authorities' arrests of Navalny in 2012 and 2014 had caused "several violations" of his rights and been politically motivated. In 2013, Navalny was allowed, surprisingly, to run for mayor of Moscow, where he came in second after the Kremlin-backed candidate, Sergei Sobyanin, in elections that Navalny called "deliberately falsified." When he wanted to run again in the 2018 presidential elections, he was barred from the ballot.
On January 19, just two days after his arrest, Navalny's anti-corruption investigation team released a video report, "Putin's Palace" -- subtitled in English and well worth watching -- alleging that Putin had built a gigantic 17,691 square meter palace on the Black Sea at an estimated cost of $1.37 billion, paid for by Putin's cronies "with the largest bribe in history". The palace is complete with a huge pool, saunas, spa, gym, hairdresser, casino, underground ice hockey rink, theater, hookah room, vineyards, $26,000 couches, and $52,000 tables.
"We came up with this investigation, while I was in intensive care," Navalny said in the video, "but we immediately agreed that we would release it when I returned home, to Russia, to Moscow, because we do not want the main character of this film to think that we are afraid of him and that I will tell about his worst secret while I am abroad."
Putin, who refuses to utter Navalny's name, responded that the video was "boring" and that, "Nothing that is listed there as my property belongs to me or my close relatives, and never did."
The video has attracted more than 100 million views on YouTube and probably played a role in mobilizing street protests across Russia against Navalny's arrest. It is estimated that on January 23, more than 100,000 people took to the streets in what were reported as the largest anti-government demonstrations in seven years. Protesters even turned out in Russia's most remote cities, such as the eastern Siberian city of Yakutsk, where 150 protesters took to the streets in minus 52 degrees Celsius (minus 61.6 degrees Fahrenheit).
Police arrested an estimated 4,000 people amid widespread reports of police violence, including beatings, although, according to Human Rights Watch, the vast majority of the protesters were peaceful.
Thousands demonstrated -- and were arrested by police armed with stun guns and batons -- this weekend as well, voicing anger over falling living standards, shrinking political freedoms, corruption, "a skewed court system and rigged elections" and a political system that is rigged before "another round of fraudulent elections", possibly this spring and no later than next fall.
"Time and time again, Russian authorities have suppressed free speech and peaceful protest through police brutality, violence, and mass arrests and January 23 was no exception," said Damelya Aitkhozhina, a researcher on Russia at Human Rights Watch. "The authorities understand their obligations to respect fundamental human rights and choose not just to ignore them but to trample all over them."
Following the protests, police raided Navalny's home and offices. According to authorities, Facebook, Twitter, TikTok and others are facing fines of up to 4 million rubles ($53,000) for not having deleted posts calling for Russians to demonstrate.
Although Navalny has been opposing Putin unsuccessfully for at least a decade, the current protests, especially if they continue and grow, may actually have a chance of making a dent in Putin's power base. Putin, ironically, may largely have himself to thank. If it had not been for the arrest and jailing of Navalny, the current protest movement might have remained dormant.
When Navalny revealed that he had been poisoned by state agents, Russians did not take to the streets in support of him, even though an attempted assassination by the state on Putin's fiercest critic is a huge scandal, even by Russian standards. People, however, remained apathetic or fearful.
In a late 2020 poll, performed by the Levada center, a respected independent Russian non-governmental research organization -- so unpopular with Putin that it has been forced to register as a foreign agent -- 33% of Russians said that they considered Putin to be "man of the year," whereas only 5 % said the same of Navalny. Now, Putin's arrest of Navalny and the clampdown on his organization, have brought renewed impetus to the protest movement and mobilized thousands -- especially young people -- for Navalny and against the government.
In addition, Navalny's arrest comes at an all-time low for Russians, 88% of whom, for the first time since 1991, according to Levada, called the outgoing year more difficult for the country than the previous one. Sixty-five per cent said this year was more difficult than the previous year for them and their families, the highest figure since 1998. Such dissatisfaction could, by itself, be enough to fuel a protest movement, but coupled with Navalny's arrest and the soaring corruption in the country, especially with the latest revelations about Putin's palace, Putin might be in for a lot more than he had bargained for when he placed Navalny under arrest.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Another Muslim-American Soldier Turns Terrorist Traitor
Raymond Ibrahim/February 01/2021
Cole Bridges, a 20-year-old American who joined the U.S. Army in late 2019—and who was earlier described as “a polite, responsible and trustworthy teen”—was recently arrested and faces two federal charges: “attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State group and the attempted murder of U.S. military service members.”Earlier, in October, 2020, Bridges, a convert to Islam, came into contact with an FBI online covert employee (OCE) posing as a Muslim supporter of and in contact with the Islamic State. In their communiques, Bridges made clear that his allegiance was to Islam and jihad, not America and its soldiers. According to the criminal complaint against him: BRIDGES then provided training and guidance to purported ISIS fighters who were planning attacks, including advice about potential targets in New York City, such as the 9/11 Memorial. BRIDGES also provided the OCE with portions of a U.S. Army training manual and guidance about military combat tactics, for use by ISIS.
In or about December 2020, BRIDGES began to supply the OCE with instructions for the purported ISIS fighters on how to attack U.S. forces in the Middle East. Among other things, BRIDGES diagrammed specific military maneuvers intended to help ISIS fighters maximize the lethality of attacks on U.S. troops. BRIDGES further provided advice about the best way to fortify an ISIS encampment to repel an attack by U.S. Special Forces, including by wiring certain buildings with explosives to kill the U.S. troops. Then, in January 2021, BRIDGES provided the OCE with a video of himself in body armor standing before a flag often used by ISIS fighters and making a gesture symbolic of support for ISIS. Approximately a week later, BRIDGES sent a second video in which BRIDGES, using a voice manipulator, narrated a propaganda speech in support of the anticipated ambush by ISIS on U.S. troops.
On being asked by the OCE what he would do if his army unit engaged Islamic State fighters in combat, Bridges responded, “I would probably go with the brothers,” meaning the jihadis. On Dec. 27, after the OCE told the young convert to stay safe and avoid being “compromised,” he responded by saying he’d “either become a martyr or somehow escape the country” if that happened.
In their complaint, all of the prosecutors involved underscored the traitorous nature of Bridges’ crime: “Cole Bridges betrayed the oath he swore to defend the United States by attempting to provide ISIS with tactical military advice to ambush and kill his fellow service members,” said one, adding, “Our troops risk their lives for our country, but they should never face such peril at the hands of one of their own.” “This alleged personal and professional betrayal of comrades and country is terrible to contemplate,” said another. “Cole Bridges violated his oath and used his position of privilege against his fellow citizens,” said yet another.
The shock is unwarranted; Bridges is hardly the first American Muslim to betray his nation and fellow brothers-in-arms.
Recall Major Nidal Hasan, who was “very upfront about being a Muslim first and an American second.” Instead of being deployed to a Muslim nation—his “worst nightmare”—in 2009 he went on a killing spree in Fort Hood, where he murdered thirteen fellow soldiers.
Then there was Nasser Abdo, an American soldier arrested in 2011 for planning on using a “weapon of mass destruction” to massacre his fellow soldiers. Earlier, in 2010, he had applied for conscientious objector status pending his deployment to Afghanistan, and the Army approved his discharge. “I don’t believe I can involve myself in an army that wages war against Muslims,” he once said. “I don’t believe I could sleep at night if I take part, in any way, in the killing of a Muslim…. I can’t deploy with my unit to Afghanistan and participate in the war — I can’t both deploy and be a Muslim.”
And of course there was sergeant Hasan Akbar, who was convicted of murdering two American soldiers and wounding fourteen in a grenade attack in Kuwait: “He launched the attack because he was concerned U.S. troops would kill fellow Muslims in Iraq.” Previous to the attack, he confessed to his diary: “I may not have killed any Muslims, but being in the army is the same thing. I may have to make a choice very soon on who to kill.”
All of this goes back to one pivotal Islamic doctrine, known in Arabic as al-wala’ w’al bar’a. Perhaps best translated as “loyalty and enmity,” this inherently tribalistic doctrine calls on Muslims to maintain absolute loyalty to one another, while hating and seeking to undermine all non-Muslims—“even if they be their fathers, sons, brothers, or kin” (Koran 60:4; 58:22).
In the words of Koran 3:28, “Let believers not take for friends and allies infidels rather than believers: and whoever does this shall have no relationship left with Allah—unless you but guard yourselves against them, taking precautions.”
The words translated here as “guard” and “precaution” are derived from the Arabic word taqu, from the trilateral root w-q-y—the same root that gives us the word taqiyya, the Islamic doctrine that permits Muslims to deceive non-Muslims whenever under their authority.
Ibn Kathir (d. 1373), author of one of the most authoritative commentaries on the Koran, explains taqiyya in the context of verse 3:28 as follows: “Whoever at any time or place fears … evil [from non-Muslims] may protect himself through outward show.” As proof of this, he quotes Muhammad’s close companion Abu Darda, who once said, “Let us grin in the face of some people while our hearts curse them.”
Muhammad ibn Jarir at-Tabari (d. 923), author of another standard commentary on the Koran, interprets verse 3:28 as follows:
If you [Muslims] are under their [non-Muslims’] authority, fearing for yourselves, behave loyally to them with your tongue while harboring inner animosity for them … [know that] Allah has forbidden believers from being friendly or on intimate terms with the infidels rather than other believers—except when infidels are above them [in authority]. Should that be the case, let them act friendly towards them while preserving their religion.
The significance of Islam’s doctrine of Loyalty and Enmity—which is as ironclad in Islam as the so-called Five Pillars—concerning questions of national allegiance and security can hardly be clearer.
 

The Iranian Nuclear between Iranian Equivocation and American Dilemmas
Charles Elias Chartouni/February 01/2021
شارل الياس شرتوني: النووي الإيراني بين المراوغة الإيرانية والمعضلات الأميركية
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/95464/charles-elias-chartouni-the-iranian-nuclear-between-iranian-equivocation-and-american-dilemmas-%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a7/

Observers of the Nuclear dossier developments are not caught off guard insofar the Iranian equivocation, but have to reckon with the American dilemmas and their conflicting undertones.
The Iranian regime follows the conventional track mandated by it’s survival amidst compounded crises, a debunked ideological script and an unraveling legitimacy.
The US democratic administration is navigating its course on the crossroads between the discredited 2015 nuclear accord, the usual waffling of the Iranian regime, and the ideological ravings of its left wing.
It’s mandatory to map the difficulties of the actual course before evaluating the chances of the respective bargaining scenarios suggested by the conflicting parties.
The agreement of 2015, aside from its nuclear core-component was supposed to usher an era of normalization, whereby Iran commits to engage the international and regional communities, play by the rules of consensual arrangements, set new rules of engagement, proceed unto military de-escalation (conventional and nuclear), and loosen its grip on a demurring and largely alienated Iranian civil society.
Based on these expectations the US administration under Obama and Trump were bound to reciprocate by lifting financial sanctioning, reengaging Iran, at both the international and regional levels, in regards to the negotiation of Middle Eastern strategic issues, and cooperation on development and economic policies.
However Iran demonstrated its willingness to cooperate at the nuclear level, its commitment revealed multiple cracks, double speak and deliberate dissembling with regard to: the ambivalent compliance with the accord stipulations highlighted by the unending quibbles between the regime radicals and its more open aisle umpired by the Janus-faced jurisconsult, the large scale militarization strategy (nuclear and conventional, i.e, ballistic missiles), the harsh repression unleashed on various internal oppositions, and the launching of a systematic campaign of destabilization throughout the larger Middle East.
The mistrust started building up in the aftermath of the finalization, and the chasm between the two parties goes back to the Obama administration that was first on enforcing financial sanctions and backtracking on money funneling.
The Trump administration deliberate disengagement was predicated on the enumerated inconsistencies, and its overall critique of Obama’s Middle Eastern Policies and reordered priorities based on the cooptation of the Sunni regional power brokers and a projected deal with Iran premised on a broader scheme of normalization and its dividends.
The Iranian regime unwillingness to engage the deal offered by the Trump administration and its customary procrastination were due to ideological reasons: purported political rotation in Washington-DC, strategic waffling which makes possible the pursuit of destabilization politics throughout the Middle East, the new Cold War politics featured by the erstwhile China and the actual Russia, and deep apprehension towards normalization and its internal impact on the strong liberalizing trends within the Iranian society, and their fallouts on its tattered legitimacy.
The American administration has no other choice but to adopt an integrated policy scheme, whereby strategic considerations (nuclear and conventional demilitarization, engagement of a general plan of geopolitical stabilization and negotiated conflict resolution in the Near and Larger Middle East, and a developmental strategy predicated on economic cooperation, technology transfer and international trade agreements,…), lay the foundations of new era which puts an end to decades of destructive power politics, Ideological claustration, open-ended conflicts, endemic under-development and systemic dislocations (ecological, financial, economic, social, educational, political).
Any segmented approach to the issue is inevitably going to backlash on the prospects of normalization in both Iran and the Middle East.
I wonder whether the Biden administration had something to add to the Trump proposal, other than the empty rhetorics of the Democratic left, and hopefully not, a diminished American stature at the heart of the Middle Eastern maelströms, and amongst their ravaging predators.

Nuclear talks should also aim to end Iran’s hostage diplomacy
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/February 01/2021
The Iranian authorities last week detained a US-Iranian dual national, the first such arrest since President Joe Biden took office. This escalation could be related to Iran’s efforts to strengthen its position in any prospective nuclear negotiations and to gain another bargaining chip in defiance of Washington, so that it can avoid making concessions on the more important files.
In fact, the arrest of dual nationals is part of what is known as “hostage diplomacy” — a strategy adopted by the Iranian regime ever since it took power in 1979, beginning with the kidnapping of 52 American citizens at the US Embassy in Tehran during the early days of its reign. Since then, dozens of foreigners and dual nationals have faced baseless charges and been deprived of their basic rights, including the right to a fair trial. It is paradoxical that Iran grants citizenship to mercenaries, militias and fighters who are recruited to serve its regional and global projects, while Iranian law fails to recognize dual nationals or offer them privileges or immunity, in direct violation of international law.
This strategy of systematically targeting dual nationals stems from the Iranian regime’s worldview, which is fundamentally based on hostility. As time has passed, this strategy has turned into one of Iran’s favored foreign policy tools, instead of the customary positive diplomacy seen elsewhere in the world, which is based on cooperation and mutual respect.
The facts surrounding some of these dual national cases reveal that Tehran has tirelessly exploited them. Iran has used dual nationals as bargaining chips and blackmail tools to gain leverage with international parties in an effort to make various gains, including: Prisoner exchanges; the release of agents apprehended while carrying out the regime’s malign projects abroad; the release of overseas assets frozen due to sanctions; protecting individuals who aid the regime in circumventing sanctions; and calming mounting tensions and keeping a channel for dialogue open with certain countries.
In December 2019, Iran freed the US-Chinese researcher Xiyue Wang in return for Washington releasing Iranian scientist Masoud Soleimani, who was accused of attempting to export biological materials from the US to Iran without a license. Similarly, British-Australian lecturer Kylie Moore-Gilbert was released from an Iranian prison last November in exchange for three Iranians who had been convicted in Thailand for their involvement in an operation targeting Israeli diplomats in 2012. Iran has also attempted to exert pressure on the British government to pay off arms debts worth £450 million ($616 million) that date back to the 1970s in exchange for releasing dual UK-Iranian nationals.
It should be noted, however, that targeting dual nationals also has domestic objectives. Iran opposes dual nationals carrying out any activities, whether social, political, cultural or environmental, under the pretext of protecting Iranian society from infiltration.
The regime also exploits the dual nationality issue to justify tightening its security services’ grip on society, constantly repeating the narrative of external conspiracies hatched against Iran. Media outlets aligned with the regime spread defamatory reports and conspiracy theories about dual nationals, claiming that these individuals are part of Western plans to infiltrate Iran. This is designed to shape public opinion, further reducing the likelihood of dual nationals receiving a fair trial.
Iran’s hostage diplomacy has long been a source of concern for Western governments. Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described Iran’s crackdown on dual nationals as cruel, calling for it to be halted immediately. Then-British Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt said while visiting Iran in 2018: “Putting innocent people in prison cannot and must not be used as a tool of diplomatic leverage.” The UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has also criticized Iran’s systematic use of this strategy.
As always, Iran has paid no heed to any UN or international criticisms of its practices. This has led to the US, UK and Germany warning dual nationals and citizens against visiting Iran.
Some may believe that the regime’s escalation in targeting dual nationals only occurs during times of rising tensions with the West, but crackdowns also increase during phases of advanced diplomacy and negotiations too. For example, Iran stepped up its detention of dual nationals following the 2015 nuclear agreement. Two years after the deal was signed, Reuters reported that 30 dual nationals had been arrested in Iran. This followed a September 2015 statement by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in which he expressed concern about foreigners influencing Iran’s decision-making. He said: “The gravest threats are the attempts of enemies to infiltrate and influence the decision-making centers.”
It is also possible to understand the latest escalation in dual national arrests in the context of concerns and internal disputes among different regime factions. The regime’s security and military wings expressed increasing national security concerns post-2015, as Iran witnessed an influx of dual nationals, while reformist factions gained prominence in Iran’s political landscape.
The regime’s ideological wing shared similar security, as well as cultural and political, concerns, with the two sides cooperating to maintain their own positions and gains. This was added to their shared desire to win back their legitimacy and popularity, which declined in the wake of the nuclear deal, with the reformists taking center stage in the country. This decline might again be seen in the coming period in the case of an agreement with the Biden administration before President Hassan Rouhani leaves office in mid-2021.
All in all, those who wish to capitalize on the openness in Iran during Rouhani’s remaining time in office and those within the Biden administration wanting to rejoin the nuclear deal without conditions should pay heed to this latest dual national case. It is not improbable that Iran will step up its targeting of dual nationals as part of a broader strategy to gain leverage and bargaining chips.
In addition to targeting dual nationals, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps recently hijacked a South Korean oil tanker to pressure the Seoul government into unblocking Iranian oil payments withheld due to US sanctions. Iran also decided to ratchet up its nuclear activities, including enriching uranium to 20 percent purity. All these moves come in the context of the Iranian regime’s efforts to gain a better position at the negotiating table or make gains at the expense of its foes. Iran has used dual nationals as bargaining chips and blackmail tools to gain leverage with international parties.
The way in which the Iranian regime has adopted hostage diplomacy as a foreign policy strategy is extremely dangerous, and it might be adopted even more enthusiastically as a large-scale strategy to pressure rival states and gain more bargaining chips in the future. Therefore, it is essential to resist this strategy collectively, in line with a comprehensive vision of the threat posed by Iran. There should also be a multilateral approach to imposing political and economic pressure on Iran, especially since Donald Trump’s legacy provides an opportunity to do this.
This opportunity should not be shunned. Any upcoming negotiations with Iran should include putting an end to this gruesome Iranian hostage diplomacy, and the Biden administration must take this into consideration. If it fails to do so, dual nationals and foreigners in Iran will continue to face arbitrary detention and be viewed as nothing more than bargaining chips in Tehran’s political games.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami