English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 13/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
To
what should I compare the kingdom of God? It is like yeast that a woman took and
mixed in with three measures of flour until all of it was leavened
Saint Luke 13/18-21/:”He said therefore, ‘What is
the kingdom of God like? And to what should I compare it? It is like a mustard
seed that someone took and sowed in the garden; it grew and became a tree, and
the birds of the air made nests in its branches.’ And again he said, ‘To what
should I compare the kingdom of God? It is like yeast that a woman took and
mixed in with three measures of flour until all of it was leavened.’ ’
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on August 12-13/2021
Mes sincères condoléances/Jean-Marie Kassab/August 12/2021
MoPH: 1817 new coronavirus infections, four deaths
Parliament Session on Port Case Adjourned due to Lack of Quorum amid Protests
President Aoun discusses path of forming new government PM-designate
Lebanon's Central Bank Ends Subsidies for Fuel Imports
Aoun chairs meeting attended by Ministers of Finance, Energy, and Central Bank
Governor
Aoun Summons Salameh over Lifting of Fuel Subsidies
Report: Baabda Meeting May Agree New Fuel Subsidies Rate
Diab Calls Emergency Meeting, Says Salameh's Decision Illegal
Israel says it downed Hezbollah drone that crossed from Lebanon
Bassil Vows Action over Salameh's 'Coup'
Bassil Slams Some Blocs' Bid to 'Prevent Judiciary from Unveiling Port Blast
Truth'
Lebanese Block Roads after Decision to End Fuel Subsidies
Jumblatt stresses wanted in Khaldeh incident must be handed over: Salameh's
decision unescapable
Loyalty to the Resistance: Central Bank Governor’s decision to lift fuel subsidy
rejected
Winners and losers in the ‘resistance game’/Khaled Abou Zahr /Arab News/August
12/202
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 12-13/2021
Yair Lapid’s visit set to intensify ties between Israel and
Morocco/Mohamed Alaoui/The Arab Weekly/August 12/2021
With Pakistani help, Turkey reaches out to Taliban as they capture more
territory
Taliban seizes Afghan Army corps headquarters, 2 northern airports/Bill Roggio/DD's
Long War Journal/August 12/2021
Trump blames Biden for ‘unacceptable’ violent surge by Taliban in Afghanistan
Egypt army kills 13 extremists in north and central Sinai
Statement on behalf of United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen
Syrian Shops Attacked in Turkey after Deadly Scuffle
Israel to Okay 2,000 New Settler Homes Says Security Source
Palestinian Groups in Gaza Committed 'War Crimes' Says HRW
Taliban Move Closer to Afghan Capital after Taking Ghazni City
Algeria Wildfires Kill 42, Authorities Blame Arson
Eight Feared Dead as Russia Tourist Helicopter Crashes into Lake
Sudan and war crimes court inch closer to Darfur trials
Trudeau to call for Canada snap elections: Media reports
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC
English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
August 12-13/2021
OPEC+ should not give in to request to increase supply
immediately/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/August 12/202
Iran must pay for attacks on commercial shipping/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/August 12/2021
Afghanistan at the crossroads as civil war looms/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/August
12/2021
The rich world’s super-spreader shame/Ngaire Woods and Anna Petherick/Arab
News/August 12/2021
Erdogan’s Turkey is a key patron of global efforts to delegitimize Israel/David
May/Aykan Erdemir/ Washington Examiner/August 12/2021
German Appeasement Of Khamenei Endangers Iranians And The World/Benjamin
Weinthal/Ellie Cohanim/Iran International/August 12/2021
Analysis: Somaliland’s lingering jihadi threat/Caleb Weiss/DD's Long War
Journal/August 12/2021
How the Abraham Accords have influenced Arab-Israeli relations, one year
on/Rebecca Anna Aproctor/Arab News/August 12, 2021
Abraham Accords, one year later: The inside story/Seth J. Frantzman/jerusalem
Post/August 12/2021
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 12-13/2021
Mes sincères condoléances.
Jean-Marie Kassab/August 12/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/101328/jean-marie-kassab-mes-sinceres-condoleances-%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%83%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d8%aa%d8%b9%d8%a7%d8%b2%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%82%d8%a9/
La Republique Libanaise est morte, mais le Liban demeurera à jamais.
Je n'irai pas à l'enterrement, mais j'irai cracher sur les tombes de ceux qui
l'ont vendue, pillée et livrée à l'occupant.
Une nouvelle république renaîtrait bientót à condition que le peuple s'unisse et
remplisse le vide , même de force.
A condition aussi que le chef de l'armée honore son serment de protéger cette
nouvelle république. Partagé par les tiraillements et les pressions subies par
les suppôts de l' occupant et son rôle principal qui est de respecter la
democratie , il a tardé à faire ses choix.
Qu' attendez vous Joseph Aoun? Quelle république voyez vous? Oû est elle ? A
Baabda, occupé par un allié aux Iraniens, de son aveu? A l' Unesco squatté par
des bandits , Unesco qu' il faut incendier avec ses occupants et les voir bruler
vifs comme les 214 victimes du port? Au sérail hanté par un fantôme fanfaron et
bon à rien?
Je ne vous demande pas de prendre le pouvoir, je vous demande de le donner . De
le rendre au peuple Libanais et de le protéger comme la prunelle de vos yeux.
L'histoire parlera de vous comme étant le sauveur du Liban , comme tant de
patriotes du monde libre qui n'ont rien pris et tout donné.
Il est temps Joseph Aoun, grand temps. Les aiguilles de la liberté tournent à
grande vitesse.
Il est temps...
MoPH: 1817 new coronavirus infections, four deaths
NNA/August 12/2021
Lebanon has recorded 1817 new coronavirus cases and four deaths in the last 24
hours, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health on Thursday.
Parliament Session on Port Case Adjourned due to Lack of
Quorum amid Protests
Naharnet/August 12/2021
A parliament session on the port blast case was adjourned Thursday due to lack
of quorum, parliament's secretary Adnan Daher said. The parliamentary attendance
reached 39 lawmakers. The Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces, the
Progressive Socialist Party, the Armenian bloc and several independent MPs
boycotted the session. The families of the victims of the port explosion and a
number of activists had blocked the road between Verdun and UNESCO in protest
against the session. MPs were supposed to discuss a controversial parliamentary
petition aimed at prosecuting three MPs summoned by Judge Tarek al-Bitar in the
port blast probe. The families had affirmed that the protests will continue
"even if Speaker Nabih Berri cancels the session." They stressed that they "will
not grow tired until the immunities are lifted." The protesters chanted slogans
against parliament and anyone who refuses to lift immunities, describing the
session as a "session of shame."
President Aoun discusses path of forming new government
PM-designate
NNA/August 12/2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received Prime
Minister-designate, Najib Mikati, this afternoon at Baabda Palace. The path of
forming the future government and the latest governmental developments were
addressed in the meeting.After the meeting, PM Mikati told reporters: "God
willing, we will continue next week”.—Presidency Press Office
Lebanon's Central Bank Ends Subsidies for Fuel Imports
Associated Press/August 12/2021
Lebanon's central bank said overnight it will provide a line of credit for fuel
importers at market price, ending subsidies on the scarce resource. The move is
likely to send prices soaring in a country already in the throes of an economic
crisis. The decision comes amid an unfolding energy crisis that has plunged the
country into hours of darkness, threatened hospitals and businesses with
shutdown and sparked deadly violence among consumers and motorists looking for
fuel. The shortages are blamed on smuggling, hoarding and the cash-strapped
government's inability to secure deliveries of imported fuel. The crisis
worsened when authorities began to reduce subsidies on fuel amid a deepening
financial crisis unfolding since 2019. The Lebanese currency has plummeted and
now sells at over 20,000 Lebanese pounds to the dollar on the black market while
the official rate is fixed at 1,500 pounds for $1. The price of a gallon of fuel
has increased by more than 220% in the last year, triggering panic and a
thriving black market. In a statement, the central bank said the decision to
provide credit to importers at market price will be effective Thursday and new
prices will be determined by the Ministry of Energy. The central bank's foreign
reserves have been depleted in past months in the import-dependent country,
where medicine, fuel and basic needs have been running short and a black market
has been thriving. The move may ease some of the shortages but is likely to
heighten social tension in the small country where over 50% of the population
has fallen below the poverty line. The financial crisis - rooted in years of
corruption and mismanagement - took hold since 2019. It has been made worse by
the failure of political leaders to agree on a new government to chart a path
out of the crisis and negotiate a recovery package with the International
Monetary Fund. A caretaker government has been in charge since last year. The
fuel crisis has turned violent before, with motorists clashing at gas stations
after long waits and fuel running out. On Monday, at least three people were
killed in violence over access to fuel, reflecting the growing frustration over
a continued problem that has only gotten worse.
Aoun chairs meeting attended by Ministers of
Finance, Energy, and Central Bank Governor
NNA/August 12/2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, chaired a meeting attended by
Minister of Finance Ghazi Wazni, Minister of Energy and Water Raymond Ghajar,
and Governor of the Banque du Liban, Riad Salameh. The meeting was attended by
former Minister Salim Jreissati, and Director General of the Presidency of the
Republic, Dr. Antoine Choucair. At the beginning of the meeting, President Aoun
stressed that the BDL Governor’s decision has serious social and economic
repercussions that are reflected at all levels, especially the livelihoods and
the daily needs of citizens, pointing out that the Supreme Defense Council did
not take any decision yesterday related to lifting subsidies, which is
originally outside its jurisdiction. The discussion focused on the financing
card law and its compelling reasons that link the lifting of subsidies to the
issuance of this card, as well as the exceptional approvals of the Council of
Ministers that authorized the Banque du Liban to use the mandatory reserve to
open credits for the purchase of fuel and its derivatives, provided that they
are paid at the price of 3900 pounds to the dollar, instead of 1500 pounds.
President Aoun also called on the BDL Governor to adhere to these texts in any
action he takes, and after coordination with the procedural authority entrusted
with the constitution to set the state’s general policy in all fields. In
addition, the President asked Minister Ghajar to control the distributed and
stored quantities of fuels so as not to manipulate their prices and monopolize
them.—Presidency Press Office
Aoun Summons Salameh over Lifting of Fuel Subsidies
Naharnet/August 12/2021
President Michel Aoun summoned on Thursday Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh
after his decision to lift subsidies on fuel, the Presidency said. The bank had
said overnight it will provide a line of credit for fuel importers at market
price, ending subsidies on the scarce resource. The move is likely to send
prices soaring in a country already in the throes of an economic crisis.
Report: Baabda Meeting May Agree New Fuel Subsidies Rate
Naharnet/August 12/2021
President Michel Aoun held a meeting Thursday with Central Bank Governor Riad
Salameh and the caretaker ministers of energy and finance, hours after Salameh
announced the end of fuel subsidies in a controversial move.
The Presidency said Aoun stressed during the meeting that Salameh’s decision
“has dangerous social and economic repercussions.”“The subsidization of fuel
will not return to the previous state and what is happening now is an attempt to
agree on a new (dollar) exchange rate at which subsidization would take place in
order to open (new) lines of credit by the central bank,” al-Jadeed TV reported.
LBCI television meanwhile said that no agreement was reached at the meeting and
that Salameh insisted on halting fuel subsidization “unless parliament issues a
legislation legalizing spending from the (central bank) reserves.”
Diab Calls Emergency Meeting, Says Salameh's Decision Illegal
Naharnet/August 12/2021
Caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Thursday called for an emergency
ministerial meeting to discuss Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh's
controversial decision to lift subsidies off fuel imports. Diab also asked
caretaker Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni to tell Salameh that his decision is
"illegal." In a statement, Diab said Salameh's decision "violates the law issued
by parliament about the ration card as well as the government's policy as to the
rationalization of subsidies." He noted that the government had repeatedly
stressed that "subsidies should be rationalized, not lifted, in parallel with
the approval of the ration card which would help citizens bear the cost of this
rationalization." Diab also asked Wazni to inform Salameh of the content of the
memo to "act accordingly and do what's necessary as quick as possible."
The caretaker PM added that Salemeh's move "does not take into consideration the
deep economic and social crisis and would have very dangerous repercussions on
the country." "Two days ago, we finalized the implementation mechanism of the
ration card and the execution has become imminent. The decision to end subsidies
could have waited until the (ration) card becomes in use," Diab went on to say.
Israel says it downed Hezbollah drone that crossed from
Lebanon
Reuters/12 August ,2021
The Israeli military said on Thursday it downed a drone belonging to the
Lebanese Hezbollah group that crossed into Israeli airspace from Lebanon. In a
brief statement, it said the incident occurred on Wednesday. “Our troops
monitored and successfully downed the drone,” the military said. “We will
continue to operate in order to prevent any attempt to violate Israeli
sovereignty.” The statement gave no technical details about the drone, but
Israeli media reports said it was unarmed and likely on a reconnaissance
mission. Tensions flared along the Israeli-Lebanese border last week, with
Hezbollah launching rocket attacks that drew Israeli air strikes and artillery
fire. But both sides targeted open ground, suggesting neither was interested in
wider conflict. Israel and Hezbollah last fought a war in 2006. Last week’s
flareup coincided with wider regional tensions with Iran, which has denied US,
Israeli and British allegations it was behind a July 29 attack on an
Israeli-managed oil tanker in the Gulf in which two crew members, a Briton and a
Romanian, were killed.
Bassil Vows Action over Salameh's 'Coup'
Naharnet/August 12/2021
Head of the Free Patriotic Movement Jebran Bassil said that the "sudden" lifting
of subsidies by the Central Bank governor Riad Salameh is "a violation of the
government’s decision and of Parliament's law." Bassil tweeted on Thursday that
the BDL is an independent public body "subject to the government and its
decisions," and said that the central bank decision is "unilateral" and "sudden.""The
government has decided on a plan to gradually lift the subsidies, and has issued
a law for an electronic cash card," Bassil clarified. He added that "this is a
new coup," calling on the FPM and the Lebanese to "get ready for action."
Bassil Slams Some Blocs' Bid to 'Prevent Judiciary from
Unveiling Port Blast Truth'
Naharnet/August 12/2021
Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil on Wednesday noted that
Thursday's parliamentary session is "illegitimate." It does not conform to "the
legal mechanism stipulated by Article 93 of parliament's bylaws and Articles 20
and 22 of the penal code for trials before the Higher Council (for the Trial of
Presidents and Ministers), which strips the session of its legality and renders
all its measures illegal," Bassil tweeted. "The FPM's principled stance is in
favor of lifting the immunities that prevent the prosecution of those
responsible for the port blast, and we reject the attempt by some in parliament
to bypass the judiciary and prevent it from continuing the investigation to
unveil the truth," Bassil added. "We will not tolerate the concealment of the
truth," the FPM chief stressed. Thursday's session -- which will be boycotted by
the FPM, the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party, the Armenian bloc
and several independent MPs -- is dedicated to discussing a controversial
parliamentary petition aimed at prosecuting three MPs summoned by Judge Tarek
al-Bitar in the port blast probe. The petition calls for the Higher Council for
the Trial of Presidents and Ministers to look into the charges instead of Bitar,
who is the lead investigative judge named by the Higher Judicial Council -- the
country's top national security court. The Higher Council for the Trial of
Presidents and Ministers consists of eight judges and seven MPs. It was only
activated twice in Lebanon's history -- in 1993 and 1999.
Lebanese Block Roads after Decision to End Fuel Subsidies
Agence France Presse/August 12/2021
Angry residents blocked roads across Lebanon Thursday, a day after the central
bank said it could no longer afford to prop up fuel imports except at the black
market rate. As Lebanon's economy crumbles and its foreign reserves dwindle, the
decision has been considered a de facto lifting of fuel subsidies. The national
news agency said people blocked roads in the north, south and east of the
country. AFP correspondents saw motorists in long queues outside petrol stations
still open, after they rushed to fill up before the energy ministry officially
announced the new prices. The cost of petrol is expected to at least triple,
according to projections by the Information International think tank. In front
of one petrol station in Beirut, Hussein Majed asked how everyone was expected
to cope. "You're going to force us to steal just to fill up a moped," he raged.
"When the judge asks, we'll say it was to buy petrol, eat and drink."
The Lebanese pound has lost more than 90 percent of its value against the dollar
on the black market in less than two years. Officially, however, the currency
has remained pegged at 1,507 to the greenback. Until recently, hydrocarbon
importers were given access to dollars at the advantageous official rate. But
authorities last month increased it to 3,900, sparking a sharp rise in prices at
the petrol pump.On Wednesday, the central bank said it would further increase to
the "market rate", which is currently hovering at around 20,000. The bank said
it had spent $800 million on fuel imports in July. The outgoing premier, Hassan
Diab, has protested against the bank's unilateral decision. Foreign reserves
have plummeted by more than half since the economic crisis started in the autumn
of 2019, from $32 billion to around $15 billion today, according to central bank
figures.
Jumblatt stresses wanted in Khaldeh incident must be handed
over: Salameh's decision unescapable
NNA/August 12/2021
Head of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt affirmed, in a press
conference held in Clemenceau that "the decision of Governor of the Central Bank
Riad Salameh is unescapable, and aims at stopping the smuggling operations to
Syria. The solution lies in the ration card and improving public
transportation."
Tackling the Shwaya incident, he said "We are dealing with it alongside the
Army."
Moving on to the recent Khaldeh clashes, Jumblatt said "some of the Khaldeh
clans did not hand over the wanted men. I have decided to keep myself distanced
from this issue and leave it in the hands of the army and security forces, but I
do stress the need to extradite the wanted persons."Jumblatt also announced that
he "had assigned PM-designate Najib Mikati to choose the appropriate ministry
for the segment we represent, in cooperation with President Michel Aoun."
Loyalty to the Resistance: Central Bank Governor’s decision
to lift fuel subsidy rejected
NNA/August 12/2021
The "Loyalty to the Resistance" parliamentary bloc on Thursday held its regular
meeting at its headquarters in Haret Hreik, headed by MP Mohammad Raad.
“Lebanon and the Lebanese are subjected to a hostile tyrannical attack taking
advantage of the country’s unbridled crisis, which has resulted from bad
policies that have been governing the country, and the pervasive and widespread
corruption,” a statement issued in the wake of the bloc’s meeting said. “It is
no secret that the goal behind this aggressive attack is to besiege the Lebanese
people, weaken their will to steadfastness, try to isolate the resistance
forces, and insist on establishing deterrence equations for the Zionist enemy
and its expansionist schemes,” the bloc’s statement added. Moreover, the bloc
said that it had discussed various possibilities and adhered to the proposals it
had previously submitted to the House of Parliament, one of which included a
constitutional amendment to Articles 70 and 71 related to trying prime ministers
and ministers. “The other includes an amendment to the powers of the Supreme
Council to try presidents and ministers, while the third proposes complete
lifting of immunities,” the statement added. Last but not least, the bloc deemed
the Central Bank Governor’s decision to halt fuel subsidies utterly rejected.
“This decision falls outside the context of any rescue plan and is in violation
of the policies that had been decided by the government and approved by the
House of Parliament when approving the ration card in support of poor families
and called for its implementation before any other measure,” the statement
added.
Winners and losers in the ‘resistance game’
Khaled Abou Zahr /Arab News/August 12/202
When we approach problems and issues in the Middle East, we invariably look at
the region as a complicated and difficult one. Yet, there is a simple step that
could bring greater stability to the region instantly: An end to interference in
the domestic affairs of other countries. Indeed, meddling in domestic affairs
has been one of the main issues facing the Middle East for far too long.
Undoubtedly, the situation has improved since the 1980s when there were many
more regimes with active strategies to disrupt, challenge or create instability
in neighboring countries, although a discussion on the role of some
international NGOs should also be initiated. However, the interference I refer
to is the active planning of terrorist actions or similar activities, such as
providing financial and logistics support, sending weapons and/or giving refuge
to known terror actors.
If we do a recap of the countries active in the 1980s, we will mainly find Iran,
Iraq, Syria, Libya and to a lesser extent Sudan. The list today has changed.
Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi are figures of the past, and their countries
have shifted from being troublemakers to becoming the ground for confrontation.
Sudan has also changed. The list is now mainly Iran and Syria.
In short, things did not end well for Arab regimes that were involved in
regional expansion plans or disruptive policies. Their populations are still
paying the price. The non-Arab troublemakers have been left untouched and are
still active. Iran is still heavily involved in attacks; the recent tanker
strike is a clear example of this impunity. It also still sends weapons and
support to the Houthis, Hezbollah and the armed militias in Iraq.
Countries such as Iran have been using a so-called resistance leitmotif to
justify their nefarious foreign policies toward the Middle East. In reality, it
is nothing but an expansionist policy as ugly as every previous version in
history. In the greater scheme of things, they have failed in their objective
for total control and succeeded only in plunging the weaker links, such as
Lebanon, into chaos.
Yet, when evaluating their track record, they must realize it is a small, if not
puny, reward. They have plunged their economy into the abyss and ignored their
population’s well-being just to succeed in creating chaos in Lebanon. Is it
worth it? A behemoth potential economy is being destroyed just so Hezbollah
chief Hassan Nasrallah can enjoy his Lebanon. What a bad deal for Iran.
What I find strange is that Western progressive voices praise Iran and other
countries actively engaged in disruptive behavior as resistance fighters or
heroes while criticizing Arab countries’ actions. Yet, they also condemn and try
to disrupt Arab countries that respect international laws and are focused on
their own domestic development programs, expanding their economies and improving
their populations’ well-being.
It is high time for the region to change and develop a new model that breaks the
vicious circle of interference. Arab countries have already moved on. Now is the
time for Iran and others to follow.
Thankfully, as is the case with negative interference, Arab countries no longer
engage in this form of blackmail. It is, in fact, the regimes that play the
resistance game that seek Western approval and always frame the dialogue in
opposition to their neighbors. This shows, if any proof were needed, that there
is no resistance, merely rhetoric and a means to an end. A very expensive one,
too.
Nevertheless, there is an opportunity, albeit slim, for things to change. With
the US retreating, it is time to discuss not whether Russia or China will fill
the void and how to leverage this situation, but how to develop a new plan to
bring stability as well as much-needed economic and social transformation to the
region. It should start with two steps: A noninterference pact followed by a
trade and investment agreement that will include a massive infrastructure
investment plan.
First, every country in the Middle East must agree to stop financing, supporting
and sheltering groups that seek to destabilize or attack the sovereignty of any
other. All networks must be dissolved and groups disarmed. In a prosperous
Middle East, there is no place for armed militias threatening and attacking
states. There is no reason for their existence. The false narrative of
resistance and standing against evil imperialism needs to be dropped as well.
The moment these points are agreed, local actors in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya,
and Tunisia will find common ground and put their own countries on the right
track. Even Palestinian rights will find a way.
The second step is to unlock real opportunities for trade and investment. Our
region needs to unlock a massive infrastructure and development plan to prepare
us to become a regional platform capable of competing with the rest of the
world. This is how and where a better future for all the region will be built.
It could also encompass the greater Middle East and Central Asia as both regions
have many common characteristics, and broader platforms empower, unlocking
bigger markets and drawing larger investments. The domestic progress in the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) states serves as a clear way forward.
On that point, there is a revealing factor. Despite Central Asia’s delicate
balance of power between China, Russia and the US/EU, there has been a strong
focus on development of trade and investment. Iran and Turkey have good,
respectful and prosperous relations with countries in Central Asia. Iran does
not finance or support militias there, and has considerate and positive
relations with a focus on economic exchange. Maybe it is also because Tehran
knows that China or Russia would not tolerate this interference.
Yet, one can legitimately ask why not have the same situation in the Middle
East? It is high time for the region to change and develop a new model that
breaks the vicious circle of interference. Arab countries have already moved on.
Now is the time for Iran and others to follow.
• Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the
editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published on August 12-13/2021
Yair Lapid’s visit set to intensify ties
between Israel and Morocco
Mohamed Alaoui/The Arab Weekly/August 12/2021
RABAT--The visit of Yair Lapid, Israeli Foreign Minister, to Morocco accelerated
the pace of the resumption of relations between the two countries, as it
reflected an Israeli desire to strengthen economic and diplomatic relations
between the two countries through the signing of a series of agreements in
various fields. In a meeting with Yair Lapid on Wednesday, Moroccan Foreign
Minister Nasser Bourita pointed out that since the signing of the tripartite
agreement between Morocco, Israel and the United States, relations between the
two countries have gone through a “positive dynamic”, which included the setting
up of five working groups in the fields of innovation, tourism, aviation, energy
and trade. At a joint press conference, Bourita stressed that Morocco aims to
buttress the relations of the two countries with a human dimension, pointing to
the launch of direct flights between the two countries and the “enthusiasm this
has sparked among Israeli citizens of Moroccan origin to visit the
kingdom.”Moroccan researcher Hichem Moatad told The Arab Weekly that Israel
wants to gain the friendship of Morocco and is keen on deepening the bonds of
strategic cooperation between the two countries at all levels and to exchange
scientific expertise. He described the Israeli expectations as going beyond the
notion of gradual resumption of ties advocated by Rabat.
On Wednesday, Lapid began his visit to Morocco, as the first Israeli minister to
visit the Kingdom, since the resumption of diplomatic relations between Rabat
and Tel Aviv.
The Israeli foreign minister indicated that his country will work with Morocco
to put on track economic, tourism and cultural cooperation that would reflect
the deep historical relationship between the two countries.
Bourita and Lapid signed three agreements, the first a memorandum of
understanding on creating a mechanism for political consultation between the two
countries’ foreign ministries, the second an agreement on cooperation in the
field of culture, youth and sports, and the third a regional services agreement
between the two countries.Diplomatic sources told The Arab Weekly, “Morocco has
taken the decision to restore bilateral relations with Israel after examining
all the aspects accompanying this decision and the resulting bilateral
obligations.”
The sources pointed out to the existence of a Moroccan political will to work
towards implementing all the signed agreements and to take time to transform
them into actionable programmes. They stressed also that bilateral cooperation
with Israel has not affected Rabat’s vision of peace in the Middle East, but
rather helped flesh it out.
Bourita indicated that talks with his Israeli counterpart touched on peace in
the Middle East. saying that peace negotiations are the only way to reach a
final and comprehensive solution to the conflict. Moroccan political analyst
Naoufel Bouamri told The Arab Weekly that Morocco has proven its ability to
manage the resumption of ties with Israel gradually, and in a manner that takes
into account Morocco’s interests first. On December 22, 2020, Morocco and Israel
signed four agreements in Rabat, on the sidelines of the signing of an agreement
to resume relations between the two countries. The four agreements were related
to the exemption from visa requirements for holders of diplomatic and official
service passports, a memorandum of understanding in the field of civil aviation
as well as a memorandum of understanding on “innovation and the development of
water resources.”
The fourth agreement provided for reviving economic relations between the two
countries through trade and investment, in addition to negotiating other
agreements that that would regulate other aspects of the bilateral relationship.
Among the results of the resumption of ties between Rabat and Tel Aviv is the
launch of the first direct air link between the two countries at the end of last
July. This step will be followed by the launch of two new connections between
Israel and both Casablanca and Marrakesh. This service will be operated by Royal
Air Maroc and low-cost Air Arabia in October. Next Sunday, as was announced last
Sunday by the director of the Israeli liaison office in Rabat, David Govrin, on
his Twitter account. The two countries are expected to set in motion a bilateral
agreement in the field of cybersecurity, which includes scientific cooperation,
research and development, and is the first of its kind between Israel and
Morocco in the field of cyber-defence. Israeli airlines want to conduct flights
to Morocco in addition to Air Maroc, which would lead to a tangible increase in
tourism activity between the two countries.
The delegation accompanying the Israeli foreign minister includes Moroccan-born
Minister of Labour and social Affairs Meir Cohen, the chairman of the Knesset’s
foreign affairs and defence committee, Ram Ben Barak, as well as the director
general of the Israeli ministry of foreign affairs, Alon Oshbiz, and Inbar
Zucker, an official at the ministry of health. The delegation’s makeup reflects
the importance of defence and health issues in the development of bilateral
cooperation.
Tel Aviv also wants to boost the volume of trade between Morocco and Israel. So
far, the level of bilateral trade has amounted to more than four million dollars
per month, according to the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, which noted a
slight improvement in trade relations between the two countries.
With Pakistani help, Turkey reaches out to
Taliban as they capture more territory
The Arab Weekly/August 12/2021
ANKARA--Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday said he could meet
with the leader of the insurgent Taliban group in an attempt to “help secure
peace” in Afghanistan and position Turkey as a reliable NATO ally as militants
make new advances. Taliban fighters have captured more than a quarter of
Afghanistan’s provincial capitals in less than a week. Turkey currently has
troops in Afghanistan as part of a NATO force and has offered to secure the
strategic Kabul airport after US forces leave by the end of August. Experts see
Turkey’s offer as a high-risk bid to improve Ankara’s strained ties with
Washington. Keeping the air hub safe from advancing Taliban forces became a
major issue after US President Joe Biden called an end to Washington’s 20-year
involvement by ordering all troops out of Afghanistan. Kabul airport offers the
safest route for embassy staff and humanitarian aid to reach the war-torn
country. Its fall could leave Afghanistan largely cut off from the world.
Discussions continue between Turkish and American officials, and Turkey says it
would secure the airport if diplomatic, financial and logistical conditions were
met. “The latest developments and the situation of the Afghan public are really,
really troubling,” Erdogan said during a televised interview with CNN Turk.
“Maybe I will even be in a position to receive the person who is their leader,”
Erdogan said, after referring to efforts by Turkish officials for talks with the
Taliban. Erdogan last month said Turkey would hold discussions with the Taliban
as part of the peace process. “Why? Because if we do not get a control of things
like this at a high level, it won’t be possible to secure peace this time in
Afghanistan,” he added.
Domestic fears
Erdogan’s more pressing domestic concern is the Turkish public’s fear of a wave
of people fleeing Afghanistan as the insurgent group gains greater control over
the country. Turkey hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees, and as the Turkish
economy deteriorates, intolerance towards them has grown with the main
opposition calling for them to go. Erdogan stressed that Turkey had the issue
under control with walls being built in the country’s east and south. “Whether
at the border with Iran or Iraq, our walls are rising significantly right now.
These rising walls are to prevent illegal migration to our country,” he said. US
President Joe Biden ordered the American military’s withdrawal from Afghanistan
before September 11, 2021, the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attack on the US by
Afghanistan-based Taliban-backed Al-Qaeda. Turkey is for now still intent on
running and guarding Kabul airport after other foreign troops withdraw from
Afghanistan, but is monitoring the situation after rapid advances by Taliban
insurgents, two Turkish officials told Reuters. Taliban fighters took control of
another city in northern Afghanistan on Wednesday, the eighth provincial capital
to fall to them in six days, as US-led foreign forces complete their withdrawal.
Turkey has offered to deploy troops at Kabul airport after NATO withdraws and
has held talks with the United States for weeks. In exchange, President Tayyip
Erdogan has asked for financial, logistical and diplomatic conditions to be met.
“For now nothing has changed regarding the TAF (Turkish Armed Forces) taking
control of Kabul Airport. The talks and the process are continuing,” a senior
Turkish official told Reuters. “Work is continuing on the basis that the
transfer will happen, but of course the situation in Afghanistan is being
followed closely.”The Taliban have warned Turkey against keeping troops in
Afghanistan to guard the airport.
Pakistani support
In comments to foreign media in Islamabad on Wednesday, Pakistani Prime Minister
Imran Khan said after talks with Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar that
efforts would be made to facilitate talks between the Taliban and Ankara.
“The best thing is for Turkey and the Taliban to have a face-to-face dialogue.
So both can talk about the reasons why Kabul airport has to be secured,” Khan
said. “And so we will be talking to the Taliban, to use our influence on them,
to have a face-to-face talk with Turkey.”A Turkish security official said Turkey
was continuing to assess developments in Afghanistan. “There is no change in
view concerning the taking control of Kabul Airport. But the situation in
Afghanistan is changing from day to day,” he said..
Taliban seizes Afghan Army corps
headquarters, 2 northern airports
Bill Roggio/DD's Long War Journal/August 12/2021
The Taliban seized control of the Afghan National Army’s 217th Pamir Corps
headquarters, as well as airports in Kunduz City and Shibirghan, as their
onslaught in the north continued on Wednesday. The group is now consolidating
recent gains in Kunduz and Jawzjan provinces, where these strategic holds will
deny the Afghan military the ability to counterattack. Afghan security forces
retreated to the Pamir Corps headquarters and the airport south of Kunduz City
on Aug. 8 after the Taliban overran the provincial capital. The Afghan troops
held out for three days before surrendering. The Taliban seized all weapons,
ammunition, vehicles and other military equipment at the at the Pamir Corps
headquarters. In Jawzjan province, the Taliban captured the airport outside of
the capital of Shibirghan today, and netted a large quantity of weapons,
including U.S.-supplied Humvees, Ranger pickups, small arms, and ammunition. The
Taliban seized control of Shibirghan on Aug. 7. The remaining Afghan forces
retreated to the airport and held out for four days before surrendering.
The loss of the Pamir Corps headquarters is a major blow to the morale of the
Afghan National Army, as it marked the first corps command to fall since the
Taliban initiated its offensive on May 1. More importantly, the loss of the
headquarters and the airports in Kunduz City and Shibirghan will deny the Army
military the ability to launch counterattacks in the two provinces and relieve
the siege of the key city of Mazar-I-Sharif in nearby Balkh province. The
Taliban controls the roads leading to these two cities, and the only way for the
Afghan military to retake them is by reinforcing the units based at the airports
via air.
The Taliban’s offensive is designed to deny the Afghan government its key base
of support in the north, while battling Afghan forces in the south and east. If
these key regions can be secured, the Taliban will advance on the capital of
Kabul.
In all, nine of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals have fallen to the Taliban
in the past five days. Seven of them are in the north, while two are in the
west. On Aug. 6, the capital of the southwestern province of Nimruz, Zaranj, was
lost after the governor and security forces abandoned the city. The next day, on
Aug. 7, the Taliban seized control of Shibirghan, the capital of the northern
province of Jawzjan. The following day, on Aug. 8, the Taliban overran the
capitals of Kunduz, Sar-i-Pul, and Takhar provinces, also in the north. On Aug.
9, the Taliban took control of Aybak in Samangan. The Taliban seized control of
Farah City in Farah province, Pul-i-Khumri in Baghlan province, and Faizabad in
Badakhshah, the former headquarters of the Northern Alliance, on Aug. 10.
The Afghan government and military have yet to answer the Taliban’s offensive.
The government has resorted to clinging to cities and a handful of key districts
– and still completely under water, has been unable to break the Taliban’s
momentum.
*Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and
the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.
Trump blames Biden for ‘unacceptable’ violent surge by
Taliban in Afghanistan
AFP, Washington/12 August ,2021
Former president Donald Trump blasted his successor Joe Biden on Thursday for
putting no conditions on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and said that a
violent Taliban surge in the war-torn country was “not acceptable.”Trump said
the US pullout, which Biden has set for August 31 and which is already all but
complete, would have been “a much different and much more successful withdrawal”
if he were still president. It was under Trump that the US brokered a deal with
the Taliban in Doha in 2020 that would have seen the US withdraw all its troops
by May 2021 in exchange for various security guarantees from the militants. When
Biden took power earlier this year, he pushed back the deadline for the
withdrawal and set no conditions for it. “If I were now president, the world
would find that our withdrawal from Afghanistan would be a conditions-based
withdrawal,” Trump claimed in a statement. “I personally had discussions with
top Taliban leaders whereby they understood what they are doing now would not
have been acceptable,” he said. “It would have been a much different and much
more successful withdrawal, and the Taliban understood that better than anyone,”
he said.
Trump, who despite his election loss remains the biggest single force in the
opposition Republican party, did not provide any details of what he would have
done to halt the advances of the insurgents. Authorities in Kabul have now
effectively lost most of northern and western Afghanistan and are left holding a
scattered archipelago of contested cities also dangerously at risk. Some US
officials fear the Taliban could take over Kabul within three months of the
August 31 deadline. The United States signed the agreement with the Taliban in
Doha on February 29, 2020, committing to a pullout of US and NATO troops by May
1, 2021, in exchange for security guarantees. They included a promise by the
militants to hold peace talks with the government in Kabul, to not attack the US
or its interests, and to not support groups like al-Qaeda in attacking the
United States. In the wake of the agreement the Trump administration sharply cut
the number of US forces inside Afghanistan and remained committed to the May 1
deadline, even as the Taliban accelerated its offensive against government
security forces following the Doha deal. Trump’s troop reductions continued
after he lost the November election to leave the number at 2,500, along with
some 16,000 civilian contractors, still in Afghanistan when Biden took office on
January 20. Biden paused further withdrawal for a review of policy, and in April
announced that the pullout would go ahead, pushing the deadline back initially
to September 11, 2021, before moving it up again to August 31.
Egypt army kills 13 extremists in north and central
Sinai
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/13 August ,2021
Egypt’s army has killed 13 extremists in the restive areas of north and central
Sinai during an operation on Thursday, according to a statement. “To complement
the efforts of the armed forces to eliminate terrorist elements in central and
northern Sinai, the counter-terrorism forces were able to eliminate 13 extremist
fighters,” the army said in a statement released to reporters. The army also
said it had confiscated 15 automatic rifles and a number of ammunition of
various calibers alongside 20 automatic rifle magazines, and a number of other
weapons as well. “The motorcycles used by the extremist fighters carrying out
their terrorist operations, a number of mobile phones, 2 field glasses, and sums
of money in various currencies were also seized,” the army said. The Egyptian
army said nine soldiers were killed during the operations.
Statement on behalf of United Nations Special Envoy for
Syria Geir Pedersen
NNA/UNIC/August 12/2021
The following is a statement on behalf of the United Nations Special Envoy for
Syria Mr. Geir O. Pedersen. “At today’s International Syria Support Group’s (ISSG)
Humanitarian Task Force meeting, convened virtually in Geneva, the UN Special
Envoy for Syria Geir O. Pedersen expressed his growing concern regarding
developments in southern Syria. Increased hostilities, which have included heavy
shelling and intensified ground clashes, have resulted in civilian casualties,
as well as damage to civilian infrastructures. Thousands of civilians have been
forced to flee Daraa al-Balad. Civilians are suffering with acute shortages of
fuel, cooking gas, water, and bread. Medical assistance is in short supply to
treat the injured. The situation is alarming. The Special Envoy reiterated
his calls in his 31 July statement for an immediate end to the violence and for
all parties to uphold the principle of the protection of civilians and civilian
objects, in accordance with international humanitarian law. He also stressed
that immediate, safe and unimpeded humanitarian access must be granted to all
affected areas and communities, including Daraa al-Balad, and that the near
siege-like situation must end. The Special Envoy and his team continue to
engage with all relevant parties on the ground and internationally to end the
crisis, warning that there is the potential for increased confrontations and
further deterioration unless there is an immediate calm and a political way
forward. The Special Envoy also continues to hear from people in Daraa,
including civil society representatives on the ground, who have expressed grave
fears for their safety. Tensions continue elsewhere, with a notable escalation
of violence in northwest Syria; and multiple water security challenges
persisting in the northeast. These coupled with the increasingly
precarious situation in the southwest once again are illustrative of the need
for a nationwide ceasefire and a comprehensive political solution in line with
Security Council resolution 2254 (2015). The Special Envoy further recalls
the importance of the recent passage of Security Council resolution 2585 (2021)
and urges all concerned to focus on its full implementation.”
Syrian Shops Attacked in Turkey after Deadly Scuffle
Agence France Presse/August 12/2021
Dozens of angry Turks smashed up shops and cars believed to belong to Syrian
migrants in the capital Ankara, prompting police to intervene, media reports
said Thursday. The unrest broke out late Wednesday in response to a fight
between local residents and people believed to be Syrian migrants in which one
Turkish national was stabbed to death, the reports said. Images on social media
showed dozens of shouting men breaking through police cordons and then attacking
cars and shops believed to be owned by Syrian families. "The demonstrations and
events that took place in our Altinag district this evening have come to an end
as a result of the composure of our citizens and the hard work of our security
forces," the Ankara governor's office said on Wednesday night. "Our people are
kindly requested not to give credence to provocative news and posts," it said in
reference to the fight that provoked the unrest. The Anadolu state news agency
said two "foreign nationals" have been arrested and charged with homicide in
connection the deadly fight. The unrest in Ankara comes with polls showing
anti-migrant sentiments riding high among many Turks. Turkey has become home to
3.6 million Syrians under a deal it struck with the European Union in 2016 to
help avert the continent's migrant crisis. The sides are currently working on
updating the agreement. Ankara has received billions of dollars of funding in
exchange for setting up camps in the southeast that are now home to more than
four million people in all.
Turkey's main opposition party last month made waves by vowing to send Syrians
"back home" if it came to power in a general election scheduled for 2023.
Turkey's well-respected Teyit fact-checking platform has been debunking numerous
negative social media posts about migrants -- many of them Afghan -- this week.
The issue is gaining added attention out of fears that Taliban militants'
sweeping gains in Afghanistan will result in a mass exodus of people from the
war-torn country once the last US and NATO troops leave in the coming weeks.
Turkey is on one of the main transit routes for Afghans seeking shelter in
Europe.
Israel to Okay 2,000 New Settler Homes Says Security Source
Agence France Presse/August 12/2021
Israel is to approve 2,000 new homes for Jewish settlers in the occupied West
Bank, defense sources said Thursday, despite opposition from dovish members of
the governing coalition. The Palestinians swiftly condemned the latest
settlement expansion plans, the first of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's
administration. A security source told AFP the permits for Jewish settlements
would come alongside approvals for hundreds of Palestinian homes in the large
swathe of the West Bank known as Area C, where Israel exercises military and
planning control. "There is an expectation to approve about 1,000 housing units
for Palestinians in Area C next week and 2,000 housing units in the Jewish
communities," the source told AFP on condition of anonymity. The office of
Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas expressed its "strong rejection and
condemnation" of the new settler homes, saying they contradicted "the clear
American position" President Joe Biden expressed in a call with Abbas. Biden is
reportedly to meet with Bennett in the near future, though his office did not
specify a date. Bennett, a former director of the Yesha Council settler lobby,
faced criticism from dovish partners in his coalition, as well as from Israeli
settler advocates in the opposition. Israel seized the West Bank and east
Jerusalem from Jordan in 1967. Since then, nearly 700,000 Israelis have moved
into settlements that most of the international community regards as illegal.
Palestinians hope the territories will become part of a future state. Seven
lawmakers from the dovish Meretz party, three of them, ministers wrote to
Defence Minister Benny Gantz opposing the approval of more homes for settlers.
"Settlements are immoral, settlements are illegal, they endanger our relations
with Palestinians and the world," Meretz lawmaker Mossi Raz told public radio.
But he stopped short of threatening to quit the ruling coalition. Opposition
lawmaker Bezalel Smotrich of the nationalist Religious Zionism bloc said on
Twitter that approving homes in Palestinian towns was "harming Israeli
communities". According to an analysis by settlement watchdog Peace Now, the
Higher Planning Council of the Civil Administration intends to approve about 860
homes for Palestinian villages, and just shy of 2,000 units in settlements.
Palestinian Groups in Gaza Committed 'War Crimes' Says
HRW
Agence France Presse/August 12/2021
Deadly rocket and mortar fire on Israeli cities by Palestinian militant groups
during a May conflict in and around Gaza constituted war crimes, Human Rights
Watch said Thursday. The New York-based rights group analysed attacks from Gaza
that resulted in the deaths of 12 Israeli civilians and injuries to dozens more.
Rockets that misfired or fell short also killed or wounded "an undetermined
number of Palestinians in Gaza," the group said, with at least seven Palestinian
civilians killed. The rockets were fired during an 11-day conflict that
saw Israel pound Gaza with air strikes as militants in the blockaded enclave
fired more than 4,000 rockets towards Israel. Israeli strikes killed some 260
people in Gaza, including militants, while munitions from Gaza killed 13 people
in Israel, including a soldier. The report comes a day after the UN Palestinian
refugee agency UNRWA condemned "the existence and potential use by Palestinian
armed groups" of tunnels under its schools in Gaza, saying they placed pupils
and staff "at risk". The agency issued its statement following a demand by
Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, to freeze its funding
after Israeli public television reported Hamas blocked UN inspectors from
inspecting a tunnel near an UNRWA school. Human Rights Watch previously accused
Israel of war crimes for strikes that killed dozens of civilians despite "no
evident military targets in the vicinity" during the conflict that ended with a
May 21 ceasefire. In Thursday's report, the rights group cited statements by
Gaza's Islamist rulers Hamas and other militant groups announcing barrages of
rockets at Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities .After one such statement, shrapnel
from a rocket killed a 63-year-old Israeli woman south of Tel Aviv. Another
rocket killed a father and his teenage daughter in a village about 20 kilometres
(12 miles) from Tel Aviv. "Under international humanitarian law, or the laws of
war, warring parties may only attack military objectives," Human Rights Watch
said, adding, "launching such rockets to attack civilian areas is a war crime."
The group suggested the International Criminal Court, which is investigating
allegations of Israeli war crimes, should include "unlawful Palestinian rocket
attacks against Israel, as well as unlawful Israeli attacks in Gaza." In April,
Human Rights Watch accused Israel of committing the crime of "apartheid" by
seeking to maintain Jewish "domination" over Palestinians and its own Arab
population, an allegation Israel firmly rejected.
Taliban Move Closer to Afghan Capital after Taking
Ghazni City
Agence France Presse/August 12/2021
The Taliban seized the strategic Afghan city of Ghazni Thursday, just 150
kilometres (95 miles) from Kabul, in one of the insurgents' most important gains
in a lighting offensive that has seen them seize 10 provincial capitals in a
week. The interior ministry confirmed the fall of the city, which lies along the
major Kabul-Kandahar highway and effectively serves as a gateway between the
capital and militant strongholds in the south. "The enemy took control,"
spokesman Mirwais Stanikzai said in a message to media, adding fighting and
resistance was still going on. The government has now effectively lost most of
northern and western Afghanistan, and now holds a scattered archipelago of
contested cities also dangerously at risk of falling to the Taliban. The
conflict has escalated dramatically since May, when U.S.-led forces began the
final stage of a troop withdrawal due to end later this month following a
20-year occupation. The loss of the Ghazni will likely pile more pressure on the
country's already overstretched air force, needed to bolster Afghanistan's
dispersed security forces who have increasingly been cut off from reinforcements
by road. In less than a week the insurgents have seized 10 provincial capitals
and have encircled the biggest city in the north, the traditional anti-Taliban
bastion of Mazar-i-Sharif. Fighting was also raging in Kandahar and Lashkar Gar
-- pro-Taliban heartlands in the south -- as well as Herat in the west. Late
Wednesday, the Taliban said they had overrun the heavily fortified jail in
Kandahar, saying "hundreds of prisoners were released and taken to safety". The
Taliban frequently target prisons to release incarcerated fighters and replenish
their ranks. The loss of the prison is a further ominous sign for the country's
second city, which has been besieged for weeks by the Taliban. Kandahar was once
the stronghold of the Taliban -- whose forces coalesced in the eponymously named
province in the early 1990s -- and its capture would serve as both a tactical
and psychological victory for the militants.
'Deteriorating security situation' -
Hundreds of thousands have been displaced by the fighting that has enveloped the
country. In recent days, Kabul has been swamped by the displaced, who have begun
camping out in parks and other public spaces, sparking a fresh humanitarian
crisis in the already overtaxed capital. In Washington, defence officials
appeared to be grappling with the spiraling situation but insisted that Afghan
security forces were still holding their ground. "What we're seeing, a
deteriorating security situation, we've been nothing but candid about that,"
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters Wednesday.
"But there are places and there are times, including today, where Afghan forces
in the field are putting up a fight."
Algeria Wildfires Kill 42, Authorities Blame Arson
Agence France Presse/August 12/2021
Wildfires fanned by blistering temperatures and tinder-dry conditions have
killed at least 42 people in Algeria, authorities said on Tuesday, adding that
the fires had criminal origins. Late Tuesday the toll stood at 25 soldiers and
17 civilians killed. Photographs posted on social media show huge walls of flame
and billowing clouds of smoke towering over charred trees in the forested hills
of the Kabylie region, east of the capital Algiers. Algeria joins a string of
countries to be hit by major blazes in recent weeks, including Greece, Turkey,
Cyprus and the western United States. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune tweeted his
condolences for 25 soldiers killed as they worked to rescue people in the areas
of Bejaiea and Tizi Ouzou, the epicenter of the blazes. "It is with great
sadness that I have learned of the martyrdom of 25 soldiers after they were
successful in rescuing around 100 citizens from the flames in the mountains of
Bejaiea and Tizi Ouzou," the president said. The defense ministry said the
actions of the soldiers had "saved 110 people -- men, women and children -- from
the flames". At least another 14 soldiers were injured to varying degrees.
Seventeen civilians died in the Tizi Ouzou and Setif area, Prime Minister Aimene
Benabderrahmane said late Tuesday. Earlier, the APS news agency gave a toll of
13 civilians killed. State radio said three "arsonists" had been arrested in the
northern district of Medea and another in Annaba, in relation to other fires.
More than 70 fires have broken out in 18 states across the north of the country,
including 10 around Tizi Ouzou, one of the most populous cities in Kabylie. An
AFP photographer in Tizi Ouzou saw medics carrying away bodies of people killed
in the fire. Meteorologists said the temperature would hit 46 degrees Celsius
(115 degrees Fahrenheit) on Tuesday in a North African country that is also
struggling with severe water shortages. Interior Minister Kamel Beldjoud, on a
visit to Tizi Ouzou, told television that "50 fires starting at the same time is
impossible. These fires are of criminal origin."The civil protection directorate
said 12 northern urban centers were hit by fires.
- Arson suspected -
Public radio reported the arrest of three suspected arsonists in Medea. Arson
has been blamed for several major fires in recent years in Algeria. Last month,
President Tebboune ordered a bill to stiffen punishments for starting a forest
fire, with sentences of up to 30 years in prison -- and possible life
imprisonment, if the fire results in death. In July, three people were arrested
on suspicion of starting fires that devastated 15 square kilometers (six square
miles) of forest in the Aures mountains. In 2020, nearly 440 square kilometers
(170 square miles) of forest were destroyed by fire, and several people were
arrested on suspicion of arson. On Monday, the U.N. released a major report
showing how the threat from global warming is even more acute than previously
thought. It highlighted how scientists are quantifying the extent to which
human-induced warming increases the intensity and/or likelihood of a specific
extreme weather event, such as a heatwave or a wildfire. Climate change
amplifies droughts, creating ideal conditions for wildfires to spread out of
control and inflict unprecedented material and environmental damage.
Eight Feared Dead as Russia Tourist Helicopter Crashes into Lake
Agence France Presse/August 12/2021
A helicopter carrying 16 tourists and crew on a sightseeing trip in Russia's far
east crashed into a lake on Thursday, leaving eight people including a child
feared dead and two others in serious condition, local officials said. The Mi-8
helicopter crash-landed into the icy waters of Kuril Lake in the mountainous
Kamchatka peninsula in poor visibility and sank. Staff of the Kronotsky Nature
Reserve dispatched boats to the crash site and saved eight people, two of whom
are now in intensive care with various injuries. Survivors praised wildlife
inspectors for coming to their rescue in a matter of minutes. "This situation is
close to a miracle," said governor Vladimir Solodov. The other eight --
including the only child on board and the crew commander -- were missing and
feared dead. "We don't have any information about the rest," the governor's
spokeswoman, Alla Golovan, told AFP. The wreckage of the helicopter was now
lying at a depth of more than 130 meters (420 feet) some 800 meters from the
shore. Rescuers and divers were dispatched to the scene but they did not have
the necessary equipment to begin work, authorities said. "The divers of the
emergencies ministry cannot work at such depth. So we turned to the defense
ministry for help," Solodov said. "Robots will be studying the bottom of Kuril
Lake at the site of the crash."
Rescued from icy water
Recounting the crash and subsequent rescue operation, wildlife inspectors said
that the visibility at the lake was no greater than 100 meters, adding they
heard the helicopter but could not see it. When staff of the reserve heard a
loud "boom", they said they dispatched two motorboats with four inspectors, who
reached the scene in about three to four minutes. "Eight people were on the
surface, who we immediately lifted onboard," inspector Yevgeny Denges said in a
statement. The inspectors looked for other survivors but could not find anyone,
Denges added. Citing the survivors, the nature reserve said that the chopper
began to sink nose first and the passengers managed to swim up to the surface
from a depth of eight to nine meters. "The water temperature in the lake is no
more than 5-6 degrees (Celsius, 41-43 degrees Fahrenheit), it is impossible to
remain in it for a long time," the reserve said. The tourists were from
Russia's second city Saint Petersburg. One of the survivors, Viktor Strelkin,
said that at the time of the accident he was sleeping and woke up when a stream
of water hit him in the face. "My friend's son was sitting next to me. He was
fastened with a security belt and I did not have time to yank him out because I
woke up too late," Strelkin said in remarks released by regional authorities.
Soviet-era chopper -
Strelkin, who practices free-diving, managed to unfasten himself, breathe in
some air before the cabin filled with water, get out of the aircraft and swim up
to the surface. The aircraft belongs to a firm called Vityaz-Aero, co-owned by
local lawmaker Igor Redkin. Earlier this week, Redkin made headlines in Russia
when he admitted to killing a man he mistook for a bear. Officials said that the
helicopter had been in operation since 1984 but was in good condition. The
Investigative Committee, which probes major crimes in Russia, said it was
looking into a potential violation of air safety rules. Helicopter tours to the
area have been suspended until Saturday. The regional prosecutor's office said
it launched a probe to study "the implementation of the legislation on the
provision of tourist services". Kamchatka is a vast peninsula popular with
adventure tourists for its abundant wildlife, live volcanoes and black sand
beaches. In July, an aircraft from a small local company crashed in the
peninsula, killing 19 people when it flew into a cliff. Russia has historically
had a poor reputation for air safety but has significantly improved its record
since the 2000s. The country's major airlines have shifted from ageing Soviet
aircraft to modern planes, but maintenance issues and lax compliance with safety
rules persist.
Sudan and war crimes court inch closer to Darfur trials
AFP/August 12, 2021
ICC chief prosecutor said plans were underway for The Hague-based ICC to open an
office in Sudan to collect further evidence to "build a solid case"Bashir, 77,
has been wanted by the ICC for more than a decade over charges of genocide, war
crimes and crimes against humanity
KHARTOUM: Sudan and the International Criminal Court signed a cooperation deal
Thursday as one step further toward ex-dictator Omar Al-Bashir facing trial for
genocide in the Darfur conflict. ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan, who described
the Darfur civil war as a “dark chapter” in Sudan’s history, said plans were
underway for The Hague-based ICC to open an office in Sudan to collect further
evidence to “build a solid case.” Bashir, 77, has been wanted by the ICC for
more than a decade over charges of genocide, war crimes and crimes against
humanity in the Sudanese region. Two other former aides are also wanted to face
war crimes charges. The United Nations says 300,000 people were killed and 2.5
million displaced in the Darfur conflict, which erupted in the vast western
region in 2003.
Sudan has been led since August 2019 by a transitional civilian-military
administration, that has vowed to bring justice to victims of crimes committed
under Bashir. On Thursday, Khan told reporters in Khartoum that he was “pleased
to report” the transitional government had signed “a new memorandum of
understanding with my office, that includes all individuals against whom
warrants of arrest have been issued by the ICC.”Bashir, who ruled Sudan with an
iron fist for three decades before being deposed amid popular protests in 2019,
is behind bars in Khartoum’s high security Kober prison. The ICC issued an
arrest warrant for Bashir in 2009 for war crimes and crimes against humanity in
Darfur, later adding genocide to the charges. Bashir is jailed alongside two
other former top officials facing ICC war crimes charges — ex-defense minister
Abdel Rahim Mohamed Hussein and Ahmed Haroun, a former governor of South
Kordofan. Earlier this week, Sudan’s cabinet agreed to hand over Bashir and
other wanted officials, a decision that still needs the approval of the ruling
sovereign council, comprised of military and civilian figures. But on Thursday,
Khan said other key steps were needed before any possible extradition for trial.
“Transfer of any suspect is an important step, but should be preceded and
accompanied by substantive and ever deepening cooperation,” Khan said.
The Darfur war broke out in 2003 when non-Arab rebels took up arms complaining
of systematic discrimination by Bashir’s Arab-dominated government. Khartoum
responded by unleashing the notorious Janjaweed militia, recruited from among
the region’s nomadic peoples. Human rights groups have long accused Bashir and
his former aides of using a scorched earth policy, raping, killing, looting and
burning villages. Khartoum signed a peace deal last October with key Darfuri
rebel groups, with some of their leaders taking top jobs in government, although
violence continues to dog the region. Bashir was convicted in December 2019 for
corruption, and has been on trial in Khartoum since July 2020 for the
Islamist-backed 1989 coup which brought him to power. He faces a possible death
penalty if found guilty.
Trudeau to call for Canada snap elections: Media reports
AFP/12 August ,2021
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to pull the plug on his
minority Liberal government and call snap elections on Sunday despite a
nationwide uptick in COVID infections that is worrying voters, media reported.
Trudeau is to visit the governor general to ask her to dissolve parliament and
announce voting will be held on September 20, according to public broadcaster
CBC and other local media, citing unnamed sources. He and opposition leaders
have been crisscrossing the country in recent weeks making election-style
announcements as talk of a possible fall ballot has heated up. Trudeau was
reelected to office in 2019 but lost his majority in his second term. Despite
rolling out massive pandemic aid, passing a federal budget and other key
legislation with opposition backing over the past year, he has lamented that
parliament in recent months has become dysfunctional, with a “level of
obstructionism and toxicity in the House that is of real concern.” Opposition
leaders pushed back, with one urging Governor General Mary Simon to reject
Trudeau’s request, informing her in a letter that his party was ready to
continue propping up the minority Liberal government to pass legislation until
the pandemic is declared over. “While Justin Trudeau wants to act like (the
pandemic is) over ... it’s not over and people are still worried,” New
Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh told reporters earlier, echoing public
health warnings of a surge in COVID cases around the corner, despite rising
vaccination rates. “If Justin Trudeau was listening to people and their concerns
and their worries, he would not be holding a selfish summer election,” he said.
Erin O’Toole, who has struggled to make himself known to voters since becoming
head of the main opposition Tories only last year, also said this week: “We
shouldn’t be rushing to an election.”If a general election were to be held now,
the Liberals would be in striking distance of regaining a majority in
parliament, according to the latest poll by Abacus Data, with 37 percent of
support. The Conservatives and the New Democrats trail behind with 28 percent
and 20 percent of support, respectively. Abacus found that 38 percent of
Canadians would be happy to cast a ballot in the fall while 17 percent are
firmly opposed. If COVID cases spike, however, one in five voters, including
many current Liberal backers, “would be angry enough not to vote Liberal,” the
polling firm said in a statement.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials published on August 12-13/2021
OPEC+ should not give in to request to increase supply immediately
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/August 12/202
Requests to OPEC from the White House are nothing new when oil supplies are
tight or the oil market is broken. Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and
George W. Bush all asked OPEC to increase production when markets were tight.
Former President Donald Trump famously pushed OPEC+ to drastically reduce
production when oil markets were broken and WTI turned negative at the outset of
the COVID-19 pandemic. On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden asked OPEC+ to open
the taps wider.
Biden’s concern are prices at the fuel pump, especially as the US “driving
season” is now in full swing. People are crisscrossing the country again for the
first time since the pandemic brought economic activity to a virtual standstill
in April 2020.
The US government, like any other, has the interests of its country at heart and
Biden, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and National Economic Council
Director Brian Dees are worried about inflation stemming from skyrocketing
commodity prices. Dees even went as far as canvassing Federal Trade Commission
Chair Lina Khan to use all available tools to counter oil price fluctuation. All
of this has to be seen in the context of President Biden’s promise to the
electorate that he would keep prices at the pump affordable.
In the case of Sullivan, his concern may also be a reflection of the Iran
nuclear talks progressing more slowly than anticipated, which means that up to 1
million bpd will hit the market later than expected. At the same time, US shale
producers are coming back more slowly than expected.
So, looking at the situation from the vantage point of the White House, one can
understand the discomfort over high gasoline prices. Oil markets are arguably
very tight and little respite is in sight. One can also understand the concern
that rising commodity prices might stifle post-pandemic economic recovery.
OPEC+ consists of 23 sovereign nations, each of which — just like the US
administration — has to put its own national interest, the balancing of its
national budget, and the welfare of its people and economy first.
From the perspective of OPEC+, however, things may look different: The
organization’s members incurred considerable economic losses when they cut
production by 9.7 million bpd in April last year — easily the darkest month in
the history of oil. No member nation has suffered more than Saudi Arabia, which,
at the beginning of this year, made an additional voluntary cut of 1 million bpd
in order to stabilize oil markets.
Six months on, the situation looks different: The virulent delta variant still
threatens economic recovery east of Suez, however, the US and other countries
with high vaccination rates are experiencing healthy economic growth. During
last month’s ministerial meeting of OPEC+, the organization decided to add
400,000 bpd each month, which would restore the production of OPEC+ to
pre-pandemic levels by the middle of 2022 and add 2 million bpd — or roughly 2
percent of global production — by the end of this year.
The US administration argues that this is too slow. That may be true looking at
things through the American lens and given how tight markets are. However, OPEC+
has consistently taken a cautious approach to rebalancing the markets, as Saudi
Energy Minister Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman has reiterated time and again. The
prince wants to understand global trends with regard to the virus before acting.
A cautious approach is definitely warranted, because there is, as yet, no clear
picture of how the delta variant will impact on the global economy. Several
major economies, including China, India and Japan, have a low vaccination ratio,
which is a reason for concern. Goldman Sachs reduced its demand forecast for
China by 1 million bpd for the next couple of months. And these Asian
juggernauts are key clients for many OPEC+ nations. On top of that, OPEC+ has
inbuilt checks and balances. Members have agreed to meet on a monthly basis
until the end of 2022 to reevaluate the trajectory of their production strategy.
So they will next be taking stock of the global economic recovery at the
beginning of September.
OPEC+ consists of 23 sovereign nations, each of which — just like the US
administration — has to put its own national interest, the balancing of its
national budget, and the welfare of its people and economy first. All 23 nations
have already done a lot of the heavy lifting in order to restore oil markets
that were essentially broken 18 months ago. Compared to April 2020, the current
issues are nice problems to have.
• Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in
investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business
consultancy Meyer Resources. Twitter: @MeyerResources
Iran must pay for attacks on commercial shipping
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/August 12/2021
The latest developments in the Gulf indicate that the Iranian regime is
determined to pursue its hegemonic ambitions, military adventurism and
destabilizing behavior in the Middle East more forcefully under the presidency
of the hard-liner cleric Ebrahim Raisi. The regime will be more aggressive under
its new president, who is also likely the country’s next supreme leader.
Just a few days before Raisi took office, an oil tanker, the MV Mercer Street,
owned by Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer and managed by the Zodiac Maritime
company, was attacked by a drone 280 km (170 miles) from the port of Al-Daqam in
the Oman Sea. The assault turned deadly as two crew members, a British and a
Romanian citizen, were killed in the drone attack.
In the wake of the strike, several countries, including the UK, Romania, Liberia
and Israel, sent a letter to the UN Security Council blaming the Iranian regime
for the attack. The countries pointed out in the letter: “This attack disrupted
and posed a risk to the safety and security of international shipping and was a
clear violation of international law. This act must be condemned by the
international community.”
It is important to point out that this is not the first time that the Iranian
regime has been implicated in attacking commercial oil tankers in recent years.
For example, four tankers were targeted close to the port of Fujairah, off the
coast of the UAE in May 2019. A month later, on June 13, 2019, two tankers
crossing the Gulf of Oman were also sabotaged with explosives — one went up in
flames and both were left adrift.
The two ships that were sabotaged were Japanese and Norwegian: The Japanese
Kokuka Courageous and the Norwegian Front Altair. A few weeks later, the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps became more emboldened and broadcast a video boasting
how its commandos, wearing black ski masks and military fatigues, descended from
a helicopter on to a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and seized the
ship.
Intriguingly, the Iranian leaders have previously claimed responsibility for
some of the attacks on commercial oil tankers. Iran’s Guardian Council spokesman
Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei told the semi-official Fars news agency that the seizure of
the British tanker in 2019 was in retaliation for the British navy seizing an
Iranian tanker off Gibraltar. He stated that it was aimed at confronting “the
illegitimate economic war, and seizure of oil tankers is an instance of this
rule and is based on international rights.” But he failed to mention that
Tehran’s oil tanker was shipping oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions.
Orders to target commercial oil tankers and destabilize the Gulf most likely
come from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei because he has the final say in
Iran’s domestic and foreign policies.
By attacking commercial oil tankers, the Iranian leaders are breaching two
crucial international laws. First, Iran’s aggressive behavior and assaults are a
blatant violation of the UN General Assembly’s Definition of Aggression, which
“calls on all states to refrain from all acts of aggression and other uses of
force contrary to the Charter of the United Nations and the Declaration on
Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation
among states in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.”
This resolution clarifies that the following can be classed as acts of
aggression: “The blockade of the ports or coasts of a state by the armed forces
of another state,” and “an attack by the armed forces of a state on the land,
sea or air forces, or marine and air fleets of another state.”
Second, the regime is violating the internationally recognized UN Convention on
the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Under part three of UNCLOS, “Straits Used For
International Navigation,” Article 44, the agreement stipulates that: “States
bordering straits shall not hamper transit passage and shall give appropriate
publicity to any danger to navigation or over flight within or over the strait
of which they have knowledge. There shall be no suspension of transit passage.”
UNCLOS also clarifies that transit passage means the “freedom of navigation and
overflight solely for the purpose of continuous and expeditious transit of the
strait between one part of the high seas or an exclusive economic zone and
another part of the high seas or an exclusive economic zone.”
This highlights the fact that Iran is blatantly violating this customary
international law on the freedom of navigation. It is worth noting that the
theocratic establishment of Iran is a signatory to UNCLOS but has long refrained
from ratifying it.
Orders to target commercial oil tankers and destabilize the Gulf most likely
come from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei because he has the final say in
Iran’s domestic and foreign policies.
The international community must hold the Iranian regime accountable for
violating international maritime laws as it blatantly attacks commercial oil
tankers.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political
scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Afghanistan at the crossroads as civil war looms
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/August 12/2021
Alarm is growing at the prospect of the Taliban unseating the Kabul government,
but that outcome is just one of three scenarios for Afghanistan’s future amid
mounting military uncertainty and an unfolding human tragedy.
There is no question that momentum is with the Taliban, which have taken more
territory in Afghanistan in the past two months than they did in the past 20
years. The insurgents now are estimated to control two-thirds of the country as
foreign forces pull out after a lengthy engagement that was one of the costliest
and most ambitious foreign operations ever, with over $800 billion spent by
Washington alone — more than the cost of the Marshall Plan that helped rebuild
Europe after the Second World War.
Yet, even as the Taliban seek to deliver a “knockout blow” to President Ashraf
Ghani’s government, protracted civil war is still the scenario that many
seasoned pundits, including former US commander David Petraeus and former UK spy
chief Alex Younger, see as most likely. Part of the reason is the remaining
balance of security personnel in the nation.
On Tuesday, the White House reasserted that Afghan national defense forces have
the equipment, numbers and training to fight back and that they will be
supported by limited US air strikes. In addition, Ghani is also doubling down on
calls for regional militias to defend Afghanistan’s “democratic fabric.” Many of
these so-called warlords, forged in the mujahideen battles of the 1990s with the
Soviet Union, have been at loggerheads with Kabul for years and the fact that
the president is now appealing to them so forcefully underlines the dire straits
he is now in.
So much so, in fact, that an increasing number of foreign politicians are now
openly speculating about the implications of a new Taliban government. Even US
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday that Afghanistan would become
a “pariah state” if the Taliban take control by force.
The Taliban strategy to deliver a military knockout blow to the Afghan
government now appears to be to take the north of the country.
Other governments, including China, are also increasingly engaging with the
Taliban leadership. The latter assured Beijing recently that a Taliban-led
Afghanistan will not become a base for plotting against another country amid
Chinese fears of a staging ground for Uighur separatists in Xinjiang.
The Taliban strategy to deliver a military knockout blow to Ghani’s government
now appears to be to take the north of the country, as well as the main border
crossings in the north, west and south, and then close in on Kabul. Puli-Khumri,
capital of the northern province of Baghlan, fell to the insurgents on Tuesday,
the seventh regional capital to come under the control of the Taliban in about a
week.
The insurgents’ advances mean it may be weeks until it is clearer whether civil
war or insurgent victory comes to pass, but one thing is certain already. Amid
the current Afghan mayhem, the country’s fragile progress over the past two
decades has gone into reverse, with a daunting array of economic, security and
political challenges.
So much so, in fact, that a third scenario of political compromise between
Ghani’s government and the Taliban is now only a dwindling possibility — in the
absence of more foreign forces to help bring it about. Last year’s
reconciliation talks between Kabul and the insurgents had raised hopes of a
breakthrough involving withdrawal of foreign forces and prisoner releases in
exchange for security guarantees by the militants.
Yet, while the Biden administration highlighted again on Tuesday the importance
of further negotiations, the elusive goal of a sustained peace seems further
away than ever given the recent Taliban battlefield advances. As long as the
insurgent forces are on the offensive, there is little incentive for compromise.
The bleakness of the security and political situation is underlined by the fact
that India this week became the latest country to advise its citizens to leave
Afghanistan. Other nations, including the US and UK, have already issued
warnings to this effect.
On the economic front, the news is not good either. Reconstruction has been slow
and unemployment remains very high. Ghulam Bahauddin Jailani, head of the
national disaster authority, warned this week of a mounting human tragedy, with
60,000 families displaced in the past two months alone, most seeking refuge in
Kabul or foreign countries.
It is also clear that, since the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001, the economy
has been insufficiently diversified from drug exports, such as opium and heroin,
despite the fact that the country has abundant natural resources — gas, minerals
and oil — with an estimated value of about $3 trillion. A related problem is
corruption, with Transparency International ranking Afghanistan as one of the
most corrupt states in the world.
With the growing prospect of intensified instability, the country is set to go
backward, possibly rapidly. This will taint the legacy of post-9/11 foreign
intervention in Afghanistan further as, tragically, the fragile gains of the
past two decades continue to unravel.
• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
The rich world’s super-spreader shame
Ngaire Woods and Anna Petherick/Arab News/August 12/2021
G20 leaders will meet in Rome at the end of October, in part to discuss how to
deal with future pandemics. But the truth is that their countries’ actions have
largely fueled the current crisis.
Many G20 countries have been coronavirus disease (COVID-19) super-spreaders.
Following the coronavirus’ transmission beyond China, which initially sought to
quash reporting of the outbreak, the US and other rich countries chalked up
early failures that greatly contributed to the virus’ worldwide spread. Had
these countries acted sooner, they could have at least slowed the transmission
to poorer countries. Worse still, their failure to commit to vaccinating the
whole world as quickly as possible has created a self-defeating cycle where more
transmissible and harmful variants of the virus are likely to be unleashed.
Statistical models show that international air travel was the key factor in the
global spread of COVID-19 until early March last year. This is borne out by
studies that detail the spread of the alpha variant (also known as the UK or
Kent variant) and the frequency of air travel to different countries from London
airports in October 2020. Prominent in the alpha variant’s spread were Spain,
Italy and Germany.
Data from earlier in the pandemic enable us to see how different viral strains
emerged over time. If we put this information alongside data from the Oxford
COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) regarding government policies, we
can pin down details of disease spread. Among G20 countries, the failures of the
US and the UK stand out.
New York was one of the early super-spreader cities. It recorded its first
confirmed COVID-19 case on Feb. 29, 2020, about a month after the US restricted
travel from parts of China. But even though COVID-19 was raging in Italy, the US
introduced restrictions on people arriving from mainland Europe only on March
13, two days after the World Health Organization declared a pandemic; and not
until March 16 did it extend these to arrivals from the UK and Ireland.
The viral sequence data demonstrate that the virus did not move directly from
China to New York. Instead, US hesitancy to clamp down on travel from Europe was
largely responsible for multiple introductions of the virus, which seeded the
city’s huge death toll.
Moreover, interstate travel within the US largely continued during lockdowns.
OxCGRT data show that 17 US states have never stopped it since the pandemic hit.
The similar mix of viral lineages from early in the pandemic across the US
indicates that reintroductions of the virus were common even in places that had
eliminated an original strain. Research combining air-travel data and genomics
has concluded that the spread of COVID-19 within the US resulted more from
domestic introductions than international air travel.
G20 countries must make up for their COVID-19 failure and commit to vaccinating
those at most risk across the world. And as super-connected countries, they must
also establish new international standards for pathogen surveillance and travel
protocols to ensure that they never super-spread again
Ngaire Woods and Anna Petherick
The UK was another super-spreader with an achingly slow pandemic response, given
where and when genomics now tells us the virus was circulating. In that regard,
the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium (COG-UK), the largest of its kind in the
world, has sequenced more than 26,000 viral isolates from people who caught
COVID-19 in the UK’s first wave, and compared these sequences with those from
other countries.
Two main conclusions emerge. First, Europe was the source of initial infections
in the UK. Up until late June 2020, 80 percent of imported viruses arrived in
the month-long period from Feb. 27 to March 30, and these were overwhelmingly
from Europe. One-third came from Spain, 29 percent from France, and 12 percent
from Italy — and a mere 0.4 percent from China.
Second, inbound travel fueled the arrival of many new genetic lineages in the
UK, with the rate of these appearances among the infected population peaking in
late March 2020. When the UK finally brought in nonpharmaceutical interventions
(NPIs) en masse — causing the country’s score on the OxCGRT Stringency Index to
rise from 17 out of 100 to almost 80 in just one week — the diversity of viral
isolates began to decline. In other words, the NPIs succeeded in extinguishing
many of these lineages in the UK.
These failures cast doubt on G20 countries’ pandemic management more broadly.
Had the world’s large, advanced economies stopped new arrivals earlier
(especially travelers from Europe), and had they limited internal travel, they
would have reduced their own COVID-19 devastation.
Restricting the export of infections would have slowed or perhaps even largely
prevented the disease’s spread to poorer countries until vaccines were
developed. That, in turn, might have averted costly lockdowns in places that
could ill afford them. G20 governments have focused on preventing the import of
the virus, not its export. With hindsight, the virus would have been contained
had they required repeat negative tests for anyone getting on a plane or
emerging from a quarantine facility.
Having accelerated the spread of COVID-19, richer countries are now
prevaricating about getting vaccines to those who need them most. Wealthy
countries have stockpiled doses, prioritized vaccinating children who are at
relatively low risk from COVID-19, and are even preparing third “booster shots”
for which there is no evidence yet of widespread, near-term need.
Meanwhile, COVID-19 is ravaging developing countries, where front-line health
workers are dying because they have no access to vaccines. The pandemic has
already killed more people globally in 2021 than it did in 2020. Many experts
harbor grave concerns about the further spread of the delta variant, as well as
other variants to come, especially in regions where vaccination is progressing
slowly.
G20 countries must make up for their COVID-19 failure and commit to vaccinating
those at most risk across the world. And as super-connected countries, they must
also establish new international standards for pathogen surveillance and travel
protocols to ensure that they never super-spread again.
• Ngaire Woods is dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at the University
of Oxford.
• Anna Petherick is a departmental lecturer in public policy at the Blavatnik
School of Government at the University of Oxford.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
Erdogan’s Turkey is a key patron of global efforts to
delegitimize Israel
David May/Aykan Erdemir/ Washington Examiner/August 12/2021
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been offering in recent months to
mend relations and exchange ambassadors with Israel. Meanwhile, his government
was busy helping convicted terrorist conspirator Sami al Arian organize an
Istanbul symposium dedicated to delegitimizing the Jewish state. For as long as
Erdogan remains a leading patron of violent antisemitism, he should not expect
his calls for a rapprochement to convince his counterparts in Jerusalem.
The conference in question, “Challenging Apartheid in Palestine, Reclaiming the
Narrative, Formulating a Vision,” took place at the Center for Islam and Global
Affairs at Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim University between June 18 and June 23. The
Turkish Ministry of Culture and Tourism co-sponsored the event. Additionally,
Erdogan’s son Bilal, who is the chairman of the board of trustees of the
Islamist-rooted foundation that established IZU, spoke at the conference.
The United States sentenced al Arian in 2006 to 57 months in prison and deported
him to Turkey in 2015 for conspiring to aid Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which
Washington designated as a terrorist group in 1995. Al Arian helped found an
organization in 1988 that the FBI would shut down in 1995 for serving as a front
of the PIJ. In the early 1990s, al Arian helped a PIJ cofounder obtain a U.S.
visa and founded a think tank led by Ramadan Abdullah Shallah, a colleague of al
Arian at the University of South Florida who would leave the post in 1995 to
become the PIJ’s secretary-general. Al Arian became the CIGA’s director in 2017.
Al Arian set the conference’s tone when he challenged the existence of the
Jewish state, declaring, “This is a global struggle, and it has to focus on the
task of dismantling a racist, settler-colonialist regime in Palestine.”
Other conference speakers embraced similar views. Mohammad Akram al Adlouni, for
example, has strong ties to Hamas, a U.S.-designated terrorist group. Al Adlouni
is a member of Hamas’s overseas consultative body, according to an article
published on Hamas’s website in June 2021. The think tank al Adlouni heads has
provided a platform for numerous Hamas officials, including former Hamas
political leader Ismail Haniyeh, foreign relations chief Osama Hamdan, and
Palestinian Authority parliament member Ahmad Atoun. In 2012, the U.S.
Department of the Treasury sanctioned the charity that al Adlouni ran from at
least 2005 to 2010 “for being controlled by and acting for or on behalf of
Hamas.”
Shawan Jabarin, another conference speaker and the head of the Palestinian
lawfare organization al Haq, is a senior member of the terrorist group known as
the Palestinian Front for the Liberation of Palestine, according to Israeli
court documents. An Israeli Supreme Court justice described Jabarin as a “Doctor
Jekyll and Mister Hyde,” heading a nongovernmental organization while also
belonging to a terrorist group.
Osama Abu Irshaid, the executive director of American Muslims for Palestine,
also spoke at the conference. According to 2016 congressional testimony
delivered by Jonathan Schanzer, a senior vice president of the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies, numerous AMP staff and board members previously staffed
or were affiliated with the Holy Land Foundation, the Islamic Association for
Palestine, and KindHearts, three organizations the U.S. shut down for helping
finance Hamas. Abu Irshaid himself was the editor of al Zaytouna, a journal
published by the IAP, and served on the board of the American Muslim Society, an
alleged pseudonym for the IAP. Abu Irshaid’s ties to the Turkish government
extend to its top leader. Erdogan met with Irshaid on Aug. 24, 2020, in 2014,
and several other times.
The confluence of Erdogan’s virulent antisemitism, condemned in May by the State
Department and the House Bipartisan Task Force for Combating Antisemitism, with
the terrorism of Hamas and PIJ leads to a toxic mix. Turkey, which was once a
key security partner for Israel, started providing Hamas with a convenient base
for operations following Erdogan’s rise to power.
The Turkish president, in fact, publicly endorsed Hamas in 2018 as “not a
terrorist organization” but “a resistance movement.” The State Department chided
Turkey in August 2020 for receiving a Hamas delegation that included Ismail
Haniyeh and Saleh Arouri, who ordered the kidnapping and killing of three
Israeli teenagers in 2014. When the delegation arrived, an Israeli official
claimed that Turkey had supplied a dozen Hamas members with passports.
Washington has sanctioned both Haniyeh and Arouri.
Additionally, Israel warned in February 2021 that Ankara has allowed
Palestinians to use Turkish soil to plot terrorist attacks against Israel on
several occasions. In 2016, then-Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon went so
far as to accuse Turkey of “hosting in Istanbul the terror command post of Hamas
abroad.”
The recent conference raises major concerns about Turkey’s role in sheltering
terrorists and in promoting boycotts against Israel. If the Erdogan government
ever wants to thaw Turkey’s relations with Israel, it must stop supporting
groups committed to destroying the Jewish state.
*David May (@DavidSamuelMay) is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies (@FDD), where
*Aykan Erdemir (@aykan_erdemir) is the senior director of the Turkey Program.
Aykan is a former member of the Turkish parliament. FDD is a Washington,
DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and
foreign policy.
German Appeasement Of Khamenei Endangers Iranians And The
World
Benjamin Weinthal/Ellie Cohanim/Iran International/August 12/2021
Back in 2008, the Wall Street Journal ran an editorial titled “Germany Loves
Iran” and a piece headlined “Berlin ♥ Iran III” that covered workshops designed
to help companies boost trade with the Islamic Republic.
The editorials explained why the “Islamic Republic is so much in vogue” in
Germany.
Fast-forward 13 years and one sees that the German government’s infatuation with
the clerical regime in Tehran has only gotten worse, and this at the expense of
German citizens and repressed Iranians.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s administration remains disturbingly unconcerned about
the Iranian government’s kidnapping of German citizen Jamshid Sharmahd because
he opposes the Islamic Republic. He has been held largely incommunicado since
his abduction a little over a year ago during a visit to the United Arab
Emirates.
Jamshid’s daughter Gazelle appealed on Twitter to the German foreign ministry
and to Roger Carstens, the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs at the
U.S. State Department, to not turn “a blind eye anymore” to her father’s
situation, whose health is worsening due to Parkinson’s disease. Mr. Sharmahd is
a legal resident of California.
When we submitted questions to Michaela Engelmeier, a former member of the
Bundestag for the German Social Democratic Party, about her SPD party’s largely
pro-Iranian regime policies, she refused to answer and blocked one of us on
Twitter.
Gazelle wrote about Engelmeier: “Wondering if these people think they can also
easily block the consequences of supporting policies that allow crimes against
humanity such as terror, torture, kidnapping or execution in real life?”
The Social Democratic Party controls the foreign ministry and its chief
diplomat, Heiko Maas, has sent high level representatives to Tehran’s embassy
over the years to celebrate the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
To make matters worse, the Social Democratic president of Germany, Frank-Walter
Steinmeier, sent a congratulatory telegram to then-Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani in 2019 “in the name” of the German people, on the occasion of the 40th
anniversary of the radical Islamic Revolution. Merkel did not object to her
coalition partner’s celebration of Iran’s revolution or to Steinmeier’s
congratulatory telegram.
Last week, Iran’s opaque judiciary sentenced the German-Iranian human rights
activist Nahid Taghavi to 10 years and eight months in prison.
Mariam Claren tweeted that her mother “did not commit any crime. Unless freedom
of speech, freedom of thought are illegal.”
Claren retweeted a message from lawyer Mostafa Nili saying that a Revolutionary
Court sentenced Taghavi and a British-Iranian man, Mehran Raouf, for allegedly
running an “illegal group” and spreading “propaganda against the system.”
Germany’s foreign ministry said its access to Taghavi was largely restricted.
If Berlin seeks to secure the release of the two innocent Germans, it could
start to flex its economic muscles and begin to slash trade with Iran’s regime.
Over the decades, Germany has remained the regime’s most important European
trade partner.
Merkel’s administration has gone as far as to fail to object to “dual-use”
military and civilian technology being sold to Iranian businessmen. As a result,
a German company sold technology that was incorporated in Iranian-produced
rockets used in chemical attacks in Syria that poisoned dozens of civilians,
including children, in 2018. The company logo of the Krempel firm and the “Made
in Germany” product signature were found at the chemical attack sites, the
German paper Bild reported at the time.
The German government’s Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (BAFA)
had green-lighted a deal for Krempel, located near Stuttgart, in the southern
German state of Baden-Württemberg, to sell the military-applicable technology to
two firms in Tehran, the paper noted.
As one of the European Union’s biggest exporters to Iran, Germany has powerful
leverage over the Islamic Republic’s wobbly economy. But Berlin refuses to use
its economic might to secure the freedom of German nationals because it
prioritizes commerce over human rights.
Other glaring examples of Germany’s romance with Iran’s regime can be seen in
the Baden-Württemberg city of Freiburg and the northern city-state of Hamburg.
Freiburg has a twin-city partnership with the clerical regime-controlled
Isfahan.
Dr. Kazem Moussavi, a prominent Iranian dissident in Germany, recently took a
controversial state employee, Michael Blume, who is responsible for the fight
against antisemitism in Baden-Württemberg, to task for viewing Freiburg’s
relationship with Isfahan as a “normal thing.”
Moussavi said, “Mr. Blume should call on those in Freiburg responsible to end
the city partnership with Isfahan.”
Blume, who was accused last month of spreading antisemitism on social media by
the Los Angeles-based human rights organization the Simon Wiesenthal Center,
refused to respond to our queries about Moussavi’s statement.
The Iranian regime engages in what one of has termed an “obsessive antisemitism”
with their Holocaust denial as state policy, genocidal desire to “eliminate
Israel” and proxy activity via terror groups Hamas, Hezbollah and Palestinian
Islamic Jihad–all targeting the Jewish state.
Moussavi has gone to great lengths over the years to expose the regime’s crimes
against humanity and lethal antisemitism despite the fact that according to
German state intelligence agencies, Iran runs an extensive espionage network in
the Federal Republic. Thus, Moussavi is risking his life to expose the
indifference in Germany to Iranian regime-sponsored terrorism and antisemitism.
Moussavi said the city partnership represents a “danger not only for the German
state of Baden-Württemberg, but also for the security and democracy of Germany.”
The mayor of Freiburg, Martin Horn, refuses to pull the plug on the city
partnership. Baden-Württemberg’s governor, Winfried Kretschmann, and interior
minister, Thomas Strobl, remain indifferent to the highly dangerous and
antisemitic partnership.
Baden-Württemberg has an unsavory history of electing leaders who tolerate
antisemitism. After the Second World War, the former Nazi navy judge Hans
Filbinger, who executed German military defectors, was elected governor in the
1960s and 1970s. Moussavi noted that the regime in Isfahan represses its tiny
Jewish population.
“The mullahs are using this city partnership for the goals of spreading their
ideology and antisemitism,” Moussavi said. In contrast to Blume, Stefan Hensel,
the new antisemitism commissioner for the city-state of Hamburg, urged in June
that the city authorities shut down Ali Khamenei-controlled Islamic Center of
Hamburg. In January 2020, supporters used the Center to mourn death of mass
murderer Qasem Soleimani, the former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards’ Quds Force.
The Green party and Social Democratic coalition government oppose the closure of
Khamenei’s base in Hamburg.
Sadly, Germany continues to coddle and pamper the world’s top-state sponsor of
international terrorism, the Islamic Republic, according to both Democratic and
Republican US administrations. Germany needs to stop prioritizing trade deals
with the Islamic Republic over the human rights of its citizens and the dire
plight of Iranians.
*Benjamin Weinthal is a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Follow Benjamin on Twitter @BenWeinthal. Ellie Cohanim served as U.S. Deputy
Special Envoy to Combat Anti-Semitism and was the State Department’s first
Iranian-born Envoy. Ellie is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy.
Follow her on Twitter @EllieCohanim. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan
research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
Analysis: Somaliland’s lingering jihadi threat
Caleb Weiss/DD's Long War Journal/August 12/2021
Editor’s note: Caleb Weiss recently visited Hargeisa.
On May 18, 2021, Somaliland celebrated its 30th independence anniversary after
unilaterally breaking away from Somalia in 1991. Compared to its neighbors
across the Horn of Africa, and indeed much of East Africa, Somaliland represents
a relatively stable territory with very little terrorism inside its borders.
Despite a wave of suicide bombers that hit Somaliland’s capital of Hargeisa in
Oct. 2008 – bombings widely blamed on Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa
– the unrecognized country has not witnessed another major terrorist attack
since then.
Security forces have arrested various Shabaab members and sympathizers during
the past decade, while also reportedly disrupting terror plots. This indicates
that Somaliland probably faces an ongoing, low-level jihadist threat. The threat
mainly emanates from Shabaab, though a small Islamic State arm based in the
neighboring Puntland region of Somalia provides another worry for the state.
Al Qaeda’s History inside Somaliland
Jihadist activity has long been reported inside Somaliland. For instance, in
October 2003 Italian aid worker Annalena Tonelli was murdered by gunmen
belonging to the al Qaeda-linked Al Itihad al Islamiyya (AIAI) in the Somaliland
city of Borama. Just days later, AIAI also murdered two British aid workers in
the town of Sheikh. And in March 2004, the same AIAI cell shot Kenyan aid
worker, Flora Chepkemoi, to death in Hargeisa. Somali officials have stated that
the Somaliland AIAI cell was commanded by Aden Hashi Ayro, a key operative
within Al Qaeda’s East African networks and co-founder of Shabaab.
Founded by Somali jihadists who had fought and trained inside Afghanistan, AIAI
was sanctioned by the US government and the United Nations for its close links
to al Qaeda in September and October 2001, respectively.
AIAI eventually formed a core part of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in 2006,
which controlled Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia until several successive
African Union military offensives drove them out of the capital city. Al Qaeda’s
current branch inside Somalia, Shabaab, grew out of the ICU.
Somaliland and international officials say Shabaab carried out the Oct. 2008
suicide barrage in Somaliland and Puntland, which killed at least 30 people in
Hargeisa and Bosaso. While the group never officially claimed the assaults, it
did praise and acknowledge the suicide bombers in its media.
The subsequent investigation of the bombing campaign found that just one of the
bombers was a native Somalilander. However, this does not mean that members of
Shabaab from Somaliland have not played a large role in the organization.
Indeed, Ahmed Abdi Godane, also known as Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr, Shabaab’s first
emir until his death in September 2014, was born and raised in Hargeisa. Before
migrating to southern Somalia, Somaliland officials also linked Godane to the
AIAI cell that murdered the foreign aid workers in 2003 and 2004.
Current jihadi operations
Although the jihadists have not conducted a major attack since 2008, Somaliland
still faces a plethora of other threats from terrorist groups in the region. For
instance, both Shabaab and its rival in the Islamic State’s Somalia Province (or
just Islamic State Somalia, ISS), have their northern bases in the mountains of
Puntland that straddle the Somaliland border.
Shabaab, for instance, has often utilized these bases to infiltrate Somaliland
territory in its far eastern reaches. In Oct. 2020, the group captured several
villages near the town of Las Qoray in Somaliland’s Sanaag Region. And just a
year prior, Shabaab said it took control over a village not far from Ceerigabo,
also in the Sanaag Region.
Much of Somaliland’s east, however, is not under firm government control. Large
areas of Sanaag and Sool, another region in Somaliland, are disputed with
Puntland. Moreover, the dominant clans of Somaliland’s east, the Darod sub-clans
of the Warsangali and Dhulbahante, have often been at odds with Somaliland’s
government over claims of discrimination and under-representation among the
region’s dominant Isaaq clan. The Dhulbahante themselves have had a rival
claimant to power in the Khatumo State of eastern Somaliland.
These conflicts and grievances have the potential to be exploited by Shabaab.
For instance, in 2010, a series of bombings in and near the city of Las Anod in
Somaliland’s Sool Region are thought to have been perpetrated by Shabaab-sympathetic
members of the Dhulbahante.
In Somaliland’s major cities such as Hargeisa, Burco, and Berbera, Shabaab is
also thought to maintain sleeper cells. Somaliland officials told FDD’s Long War
Journal that Shabaab also attempts to maintain an active intelligence apparatus
in the urban areas. However, Shabaab has been less effective at utilizing these
networks for kinetic operations.
Somaliland officials and independent researchers often tout the efficacy of the
country’s intelligence services and their relationships with local communities
at thwarting Shabaab’s attempts at infiltrating cities within the territory.
Somaliland officials also quoted similar recent successes in this regard to this
author during a recent trip to Hargeisa. However, the reliance on community
networks and local reporting is likely just part of the story.
The vast majority of Shabaab’s focus and resources are directed to the war in
central and southern Somalia. Shabaab’s failure to launch major attacks inside
Somaliland may also be the result of the group’s smaller presence in Somalia’s
northern Puntland region.
Shabaab is also likely pursuing a different modus operandi in the north, in
which it is focused on establishing greater ties with local clans to build
support and provide opportunities for expansion.
For example, one way in which it better expanded its presence in neighboring
Puntland was by establishing ties with the Warsangali clan militia led by
Mohamad Said Atom. In 2010, Atom pledged allegiance to Shabaab, effectively
making his clan’s militiamen Shabaab’s foot soldiers in the mountains of
Puntland. Shabaab has been able to expand in the north in recent years, even
after Atom’s defection in 2014, as a result. For instance, Atom’s successor,
Yasin Kilwe, is himself a member of the Warsangali clan. There is evidence that
Shabaab is trying to pursue the same route inside Somaliland. For instance, in
the two occasions it has taken over territory inside Somaliland, it has made a
point to lecture and preach to the locals, indicating it is taking a Da’wah-first
approach, that is, proselytising for Shabaab’s jihadist version of Islam.
It remains unclear how successful Shabaab will be in this endeavor, however, as
local media reported after the Nov. 2019 capture of a town near Ceerigabo that
local clans organized a militia against Shabaab.
Turning briefly to the Islamic State in Somalia, the group retains small cells
in southern Somalia and in various areas of Puntland. Its leadership is based in
the Galgala Mountains that run the border between Somaliland and Puntland.
However, ISS has not launched one attack inside Somaliland’s territory. Instead,
its resources are largely invested in Puntland’s Bosaso, Qandala, and Iskushuban
districts. In regard to its operations, it has also claimed the vast majority of
its attacks inside Mogadishu or its northern suburb Afgooye, according to data
kept by FDD’s Long War Journal. That said, as the United Nations documents the
reportedly outsized role played by ISS in the Islamic State’s overall African
network, the government in Hargeisa remains rightly concerned over any future
possibilities for the Islamic State to strike within its territory.
Conclusion
Somaliland sits at an interesting time in its overall history. While still
unrecognized, it has nevertheless paved business and diplomatic relationships
with countries like the UAE and Turkey in order to gain more international
legitimacy. In these endeavours, Somaliland touts its relative safety and lack
of terrorism as a selling point for future relations.
As it stands, Somaliland’s security apparatus has indeed been able to keep the
territory from witnessing another major terrorist attack since 2008. However, it
is not entirely out of the woods yet.
In the east where its control is lacking, Shabaab is indeed trying to make
in-roads with local clans that claim discrimination from the government in
Hargeisa. And if Ethiopia is correct in its claims that both Shabaab and the
Islamic State utilize Somaliland as a transit route for points throughout East
Africa, Hargeisa faces even more of an intelligence challenge against the
jihadist groups.
Time will tell just how long Somaliland will be able to keep the jihadist groups
at bay. For now, at least, the territory remains among the most secure places in
both Africa’s Horn and the wider East African region.
*Caleb Weiss is a contributor to FDD's Long War Journal.
ريبيكا آنا أبروكتور/ رب نيوز : بعد عام على توقيها كيف أثرت اتفاقيات إبراهيم
على العلاقات العربية الإسرائيلية بعد عام
How the Abraham Accords have influenced Arab-Israeli
relations, one year on
Rebecca Anna Aproctor/Arab News/August 12, 2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/101340/%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a7-%d8%a2%d9%86%d8%a7-%d8%a3%d8%a8%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%83%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%af-%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%82%d9%8a%d9%87%d8%a7/
Years of quiet diplomacy laid the foundation for the establishment of formal
ties between Israel and the UAE
Proponents of the pact laud its economic benefits, while skeptics rue lack of
progress on Palestinian statehood
DUBAI: One year ago, the UAE became the first Arab country to sign the Abraham
Accords, a series of US-brokered diplomatic agreements inked between Israel and
Arab states.
The Aug. 13 signing marked the first time an Arab country had publicly
established relations with Israel since Egypt in 1979, and then Jordan in 1994.
Bahrain followed suit on Sept. 11 last year.
The rapprochement between the UAE and Israel was remarkable in many ways given
their long history of animosity over the rights of the Palestinian people.
Those in favor of the deal have lauded the prospects for trade and commerce,
which economists predict could be worth $6.5 billion annually.
Dorian Barak, co-founder of the UAE-Israel Business Council, told Arab News:
“We’re on track to reach $3 billion in annual trade by 2025, with some
estimating even more. “Some of this is bilateral, but much more of it is Israel
trading with and through the UAE as a gateway to other markets in the region,
from the large economies in the Arab world to India, South Asia, and beyond.”
Others are skeptical that the pact will promote peace in the region or encourage
a resolution to the decades-old Arab-Israeli conflict.
Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political analyst, told Arab News: “After
one year, we are seeing that this accord has two legs. There is a strong leg and
a weaker one.
“The first and strongest is the pragmatist or realist leg — and this is the one
that is here to stay. This is the leg that is beneficial to both (the UAE and
Israel) and has to do with all economic, technological, and strategic benefits
that come with the accords.
“The second and weaker leg is the idealistic one — the one that has promised
peace and stability to the region and prosperity to the Palestinians. This leg
is not proving as strong as the national interests that bind the UAE and Israel
together,” he said.
On Sept. 15, 2020, the UAE, Bahrain and Israel agreed the Abraham Accords
Declaration, stating their recognition of “the importance of maintaining and
strengthening peace in the Middle East and around the world based on mutual
understanding and coexistence, as well as respect for human dignity and freedom,
including religious freedom.”
It was signed at the White House in Washington, D.C. by the UAE’s Foreign
Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, his Bahraini counterpart Abdullatif bin
Rashid Al-Zayani, then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and then-US
President Donald Trump.
When the COVID-19 pandemic travel restrictions began to be relaxed in autumn of
last year, the first direct commercial flights took off between Tel Aviv and
Dubai, with thousands of tourist and business travelers setting foot on one
another’s soil for the first time. Dubai witnessed changes almost overnight.
Suddenly, Hebrew could be heard in public places, yarmulke-wearing men became a
common sight, and Jews based in the emirate began worshipping openly. Kosher
food started to appear on menus at major hotels and on commercial flights to
cater to the growing Jewish clientele.
In order to maintain the momentum of interfaith understanding, plans were soon
underway for the Abrahamic Family House in Abu Dhabi.
Scheduled to open in 2022 and designed by award-winning Ghanaian architect Sir
David Adjaye, the structure will host a church, synagogue, and mosque to
celebrate the fraternity of the three monotheistic faiths.
The apparent success of the Abraham Accords quickly inspired other nations to
join. In October, Sudan became the third Arab country to sign up to the
agreements, followed in December by Morocco.
Recently, in reply to a question on whether Saudi Arabia was thinking of coming
on board, Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan praised the agreements but
said that a Palestinian settlement would result in complete normalization for
Israel across the region. “Overall, the Abraham Accords have had a positive
effect on relations in the region and we must build on that by finding a
solution for the Palestinians,” he told the Aspen Security Forum.
The hope among the agreements’ supporters, particularly Jewish communities
throughout the Arab world, is that it will promote further dialogue.
Yehuda Sarna, the UAE’s chief rabbi, told Arab News: “My prediction one year ago
was that the opening up of diplomatic relations would break down stereotypes
between Arabs and Jews, pressing the reset button to the relationship between
civilizations.
“That is exactly what has occurred; hundreds of thousands of people have
encountered each other in person, mostly in the UAE, and millions more have
engaged online, in positive and inspiring ways.”
Sarna, who also serves as the executive director for Jewish Student Life at New
York University, said the Jewish community in the UAE was, “in the process of
building the civil society infrastructure to support these interactions,
including researching how best to bring people together, developing local
religious and educational institutions, as well as organizations for cultural
exchange.”
To mark the one-year anniversary of the agreement, Sarna has written “a prayer
for the region as a whole,” which will be distributed to more than 1,000
synagogues worldwide, including those associated with the Rabbinical Council of
America.
Although the agreements have shown potential for prosperity in the region,
critics have pointed out they have so far done little to promote peace between
the Israelis and the Palestinians or brought the Palestinians any closer to
statehood.
The strength of the Abraham Accords was tested at the end of May this year when
Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip,
fought an 11-day war.
Abdulla, the Emirati political analyst, said: “As we have seen in Gaza, and have
seen all along, the accords will not bring peace and prosperity to the region as
promised.” And he noted that they would not guarantee the legitimacy of the
Palestinians’ aspirations for a state.“What happened in May was a huge setback
to the accords, but it did not reverse them, and it seems nothing will. Israel
wants them and the US wants them, but they will not bring peace to the region,”
he added.
When clashes erupted between Jews and Arabs in Jerusalem in May, the governments
of Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the UAE were pressured by their own publics to
side with the Palestinians.
How Arab governments respond to the cycle of violence, particularly those states
that have signed up to the Abraham Accords, will no doubt prove critical to the
future of the Arab-Israeli rapprochement.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD) in Washington, told Arab News: “Over recent decades, the Arabs
have made anti-Israel rhetoric sacrosanct, almost divine.
“When policies and divinities mix, both are spoiled. Today, the Arabs who
understand how modern economies work realize that peace with Israel is not about
revenge or honor, but about growing the economy.
“Peace is a definite multiplier of economic growth, and the UAE’s figures prove
that. Such Arabs are ready for peace, but they are usually scared of the public
shaming that comes with calls for peace with Israel.” Whatever their long-term
impact on the region, the Abraham Accords are an undeniable sign of a thaw in
long-frozen Arab-Israeli relations. In the words of Houda Nonoo, Bahrain’s
former ambassador to the US, the agreements will “no doubt be one of the biggest
Middle East milestones in our lifetime.”
She told Arab News: “As we embark on a new era in the Bahrain-Israel
relationship, it is important to remember that at the core of this agreement is
the desire to create a new Middle East, one built on peace and prosperity for
all.
“I believe that the growing partnerships between Bahrain and Israel will lead to
sustainable peace in the region.”
*Twitter: @rebeccaaproctor
سيث ج.فرانتزمان/جيرازالم بوست: اتفاقات أبراهام بين العرب وإسرائيل بعد عام
واحد وقصتها من الداخل
Abraham Accords, one year later: The inside story
Seth J. Frantzman/jerusalem Post/August 12/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/101340/%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a7-%d8%a2%d9%86%d8%a7-%d8%a3%d8%a8%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%83%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%af-%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%82%d9%8a%d9%87%d8%a7/
It's been a year. Let's look back on all that has happened since the
normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, shortly
followed by Bahrain.
“I was in the Oval Office on August 13 when we announced it,” recalls former US
ambassador to Israel David M. Friedman. “Today we are all pretty happy, and we
are ahead of schedule in terms of how this has developed.”
A year has passed since the announcement that then-US president Donald J. Trump,
then-prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, crown
prince of Abu Dhabi and deputy supreme commander of the United Arab Emirates
Armed Forces, had spoken and agreed to full normalization of relations between
Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
Within weeks the Kingdom of Bahrain had also agreed to normalize relations on
September 12.
“The signing of the Abraham Accords will no doubt be one of the biggest Middle
East milestones in our lifetime, and as we celebrate its first anniversary, it
is an opportunity to reflect on this auspicious time for the Kingdom of Bahrain,
and the region more broadly,” recalls Houda Nonoo, Bahrain’s former ambassador
to the US and, at the time, the first and only Jewish ambassador from an Arab
country to the US.
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By October Sudan had agreed to normalize ties, and in December Morocco was
talking rapprochement with Israel.
I recently drove by the liaison office of the Kingdom of Morocco in Tel Aviv. It
has a pretty gate, in the style of North African designs. It is now part of the
changing landscape of Israel and its relations with countries in the Middle
East.
The Abraham Accords were signed on September 15 at the South Lawn of the White
House. At the time some critics pilloried the agreements, cast doubt on their
substance and later called them an “afterthought.”
A year after the agreements gives us some time to look back at how they came to
be and gauge whether they will stand the test of time.
Friedman says, in a conversation with me, that “from my own perspective, I felt
there would be a stress point, something that will stress the relationship in
the short term.”
That test came with the conflict in Gaza in May. The Accords survived and are
flourishing, according to those who helped craft them and according to experts,
academics, cultural, religious and political figures from the US to Israel and
the Gulf.
In the course of writing this article I reached out to a large number of people,
most of whom agreed to speak on the record and provide exclusive details to the
Magazine.
“The Abraham Accords have brought about a new chapter in Israel’s relations with
the countries in our region. It is the beginning of an era of peace, not only in
the form of strategic alliances between states, but, rather, peace between
nations, peace on the level of people to people,” says Defense Minister Benny
Gantz in a statement.
“On the security front, an alliance of moderate countries is being formed –
countries that want to see this region develop and prosper, and that can build a
united front in the face of the aggressive and extremist players in the area.
“The Abraham Accords have also opened a ‘window of opportunity’ to advance
political steps vis-à-vis the Palestinians. Such steps are crucial for the
continuity of the State of Israel as a secure, Jewish and democratic state.”
A LOOK back at the origins of the Accords finds that many paths led to the
agreement in the summer of 2020. Some of these processes were long-term, and
they occurred on both sides of the Atlantic.
Ahmed Obaid Al Mansoori, a former member of the United Arab Emirates Federal
National Council and founder of the Crossroads of Civilizations Museum, the
Strategists Center and AlMansoori Consultancy, has been involved in peace work
for many years. He speaks about the need to solve problems in civilized and
peaceful ways.
Today his museum is one of the unique new sites in the UAE that showcases this
tolerance and has hosted many Jewish visitors.
“I was surprised by the announcement,” he recalls. “I knew we had a diplomatic
relationship that was evolving simultaneously with developing mutual interests,
growing on a wise incremental pace,” he says.
The UAE was also positioning itself as a center of tolerance and dialogue,
hosting the pope and 700 religious figures at a Conference on Human Fraternity
in February 2019.
Ghanem Nuseibeh, who comes from a prominent Muslim family in Jerusalem, has been
working toward peace quietly through meetings for years. Back in the early 2000s
he hosted a meeting in London of intellectuals from the Gulf and Israel,
including former officials. “The focus was on how to deal with common challenges
facing the region, and that is why the relations were built on common interests
and realizing a common future.”
In New York, Rabbi Elie Abadie recalls hosting UAE officials for 10 years at his
New York synagogue. A year later he is the senior rabbi of the Jewish Council of
the Emirates and recalls the joy and happiness when the news was announced.
Nir Boms, a research fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and
a driver of various coexistence projects, says that in the old days people would
go to Prague or Cyprus for these kinds of meetings between people from the Gulf
and Israel. Now it can be done openly, and people from third countries, such as
Pakistan, are attending conferences where Israelis are present and seeing a
brave new world being created.
Months before the agreements were announced, the UAE was already making plans
for an Abrahamic Family House on Saadiyat Island in Abu Dhabi, a complex that
would include a mosque, church and synagogue. The synagogue in the UAE was an
example of how things were changing in the region. Kosher catering was already
beginning in May of 2020, as articles covered the initiative of Elli Kriel and
the idea of “kosherati” food, a blend of kosher food and Emirati cuisine.
These were the “hopes and signs” that Mansoori and others remember were pointing
the way to a more harmonious and peaceful region. The tone of media and
religious sermons was also changing. If in the past there was any intolerance
coming from voices in the UAE, the message by 2020 was that those voices would
be sidelined. Winds of change were in the air.
Back in Washington, on October 8, 2020, the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies hosted Yousef Al Otaiba, ambassador of the United Arab Emirates to
the United States, who spoke with Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of FDD, about
the “new normal” of UAE-Israel peace. The two men, who played key roles in
setting the stage for the agreements, talked about how the accords specifically
commit the two countries to cooperation in economic, scientific, and social
fields, a much warmer beginning of ties than the peace Israel had agreed to with
Egypt and then Jordan between 1979 and 1994.
Otaiba said in the discussion with Dubowitz “that you are one of the first
people to plant this idea in our head. You planted that seed early on. I don’t
know how seriously it was, as part of the considerations and the debates and the
negotiations that we had, but you were one of the first people to raise the idea
of normalization with Israel. And to be honest, it’s something we’ve always
discussed. It’s something that we’re not hiding from. We’ve been having debates
inside the UAE about what normalization with Israel would look like and when
would it happen, and it was just an ongoing discussion.”
Otaiba said that the past years had seen Israeli athletes hosted in the UAE, and
Israel invited to have a pavilion at Expo 2020, an event that was delayed due to
the pandemic.
From its first days, the Trump administration put a priority on advancing peace
between Israel and states in the region.
Robert S. Greenway, who is now at the Hudson Institute and executive director of
the Abraham Accords Peace Institute, recalls that the administration focused on
several consistent goals in the Middle East. This would include maximum pressure
on Iran and the defeat of ISIS.
Greenway served in several positions on the National Security Council, focusing
on Iran, and then a portfolio that included Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon,
before rising to assistant to the president and at the same time US National
Security Council senior director on Middle East and North Africa Affairs.
Greenway would be on the first direct El Al flight 971 to the UAE on August 31,
2020, along with other key players such as US national security advisor Robert
O’Brien, senior advisor to the president Jared Kushner, US special
representative for international negotiations Avi Berkowitz, US special
representative for Iran Brian Hook, US International Development Finance
Corporation CEO Adam Boehler and other senior officials.
When he looks back now, he describes the normalization deal as coming out of the
administration’s desire to construct an enduring regional security architecture.
This idea, sometimes called an “Arab NATO,” began to be discussed more seriously
in 2018 and had its roots in Trump’s Saudi Arabia trip in May 2017.
The idea was that normalization with Israel would converge with this new Arab
security framework involving key partners of the US, such as Saudi Arabia, the
UAE, Jordan and Egypt.
It didn’t come about suddenly, says Greenway. The White House had pushed for a
meeting in Warsaw in February 2019 which would be billed as addressing Middle
East security but in fact was directed at confronting Iran. Netanyahu tweeted:
“what is important about this meeting, and it is not in secret ... is that this
is an open meeting with representatives of leading Arab countries, that are
sitting down together with Israel in order to advance the common interest of
combating Iran.”
Trust had to be built between the countries. Contours of the agreement with the
UAE were formed in November 2019, and Morocco was coming on board already 18
months before it publicly announced the rapprochement.
The Trump administration was also pushing economic prosperity as underpinning
the peace. In June 2019 the “Peace to Prosperity” economic plan, an aspect of
the White House peace plan for Israel and the Palestinians, was rolled out in
Bahrain.
At each instance the Palestinians were nonplussed, as were countries such as
Iran, Turkey and Qatar, part of a wider regional schism between Turkey and Qatar
on the one hand and Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt on the other.
Other wheels were in motion at this time as well. The US had announced it would
move its embassy to Jerusalem in December 2017, and the move, in May 2018, came
as massive protests in Gaza assaulted Israel’s security fence, leaving dozens
dead. The US also said it would leave the Iran deal in May 2018, illustrating
some of the convergence between the Iran policy, the Israel policy and the
regional strategic concept the administration had put in place.
For many mainstream media this seemed like chaos, but for insiders there was a
consistent agenda. Friedman recalls that in early conversations he had with
Netanyahu, they had discussed options for diplomatic advancement in the region.
It’s important to remember that in November 2018 Israel’s defense minister
Avigdor Liberman resigned, angered by the tepid response to massive rocket fire
from Gaza. This set the stage for elections in April 2019. More elections would
follow in September 2019, March 2020 and March 2021. The election chaos put a
spanner in the timeline in DC.
Nevertheless the overall concept the White House had been discussing with Israel
was the opportunity to endorse a new peace agreement that Israel would accept.
Then the US would push for peace from the “outside in,” meaning from countries
like the Gulf leading toward better relations with the Palestinians.
The peace plan was finally released in January 2020 with the ambassadors of
Oman, Bahrain and the UAE in attendance in Washington. Otaiba put out a
statement on the peace plan. “The United Arab Emirates appreciates continued US
efforts to reach a Palestine-Israel peace agreement. This plan is a serious
initiative that addresses many issues raised over the years.”
The plan came with a map and many good ideas, say those involved in it.
Palestinian rejection of the proposal would pave the way for Gulf normalization,
as the Gulf countries could say they had backed the Trump peace plan and were
now not avoiding the Palestinians but merely moving forward while the
Palestinians refused to even talk to Israel.
The West Wing push for the Vision for Peace plan in January also got support
from Saudi Arabia.
“I remember Saudi Arabia, which we still haven’t normalized with, said they
appreciated the effort and said the process should continue under supervision of
US. They had up to that point only said they had the Arab Peace Initiative....
we saw that as a significant move on the part of Saudi Arabia,” says Friedman.
“For years there was a recognition that there was a strategic interest in UAE
and Bahrain – paradigmatic moderate Sunnis – in joining with Israel as a
diplomatic partner, and they were looking for the right time and opportunity.
The peace plan and prosperity conference and willingness to suspend sovereignty,
taken together, coupled with absurd recalcitrance of the Palestinians and their
rejection of jets with COVID supplies, it created an environment where there was
enough justification to normalize,” he recalls.”
IN ISRAEL at the Foreign Ministry, Eliav Benjamin, the head of the Middle East
Bureau, recalls that he had been dealing with these issues before normalization.
“The components included issues we had worked on for a number of months
beforehand. While the timing was a surprise, the content was not a surprise.”
Key issues in the spring of 2020 involved the fight against COVID, and the need
for flight routes to and from the UAE, which would pass over Saudi Arabia.
Many Israelis were already doing business in the Gulf, and hundreds of companies
linked to Israel had dealings there, usually making sure products showed up
marked not “made in Israel,” but, rather, made in third countries or through
subsidiaries. For instance, one company that made postsurgical bras had to have
the “made in Israel” tags removed. Then one day, the owner was told they could
stay on.
It’s a globalized world, and Dubai and other areas in the Gulf are key conduits
of trade. Israel had some limited relations with these countries going back to
the 1990s, including an Israeli Trade Mission in Qatar that was closed in 2000
during the Second Intifada. Prime minister Yitzhak Rabin traveled to Oman in
December 1994 and Shimon Peres went there in 1996. Netanyahu would return in the
fall of 2018, setting the stage for some of the new warmth toward Israel coming
from the Gulf. According to a 1985 AP report, Ariel Sharon had discussions with
Sudan’s Jaafar Nimeiri about the airlift of Ethiopian Jews. Morocco and Israel
also had limited ties before the agreements.
Deputy Mayor of Jerusalem Fleur Hassan Nahoum, a co-founder of the UAE-Israel
Business Council and Gulf-Israel Women’s Forum, has been a major supporter of
close ties. Born in London and raised in Gibraltar with a mother from Morocco,
she has a deep sense that the Sephardi Jewish heritage of many in Israel forms a
natural bridge to peace between Jews and Arabs.
“We didn’t know it would happen so fast, but we knew something was cooking,” she
recalls.
Along with Dorian Barak, she had met Aryeh Lightstone and ambassador Friedman.
“We had been talking about picking a project, possibly in Jerusalem, that we
could do together with the Emiratis.”
By June the Business Council was founded. “We wanted to create people-to-people
infrastructure for under-the-radar normalization, which seemed to be going
faster. We didn’t really believe it was going to happen so fast.”
In May 2020 the first flight from the UAE landed in Israel carrying humanitarian
aid for the Palestinians. In retrospect, it was a symbol; on June 9 a second
plane landed, the big Etihad logo emblazoned on it.
Three days later Otaiba wrote an op-ed in Israel’s leading newspaper, Yediot
Aharonot, and UAE Director of Strategic Communications at its Foreign Ministry,
Hend Al Otaiba, tweeted in Hebrew. A month later, in early July, Israel’s
leading defense companies, with roots in state founding, Rafael Advanced Defense
Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries, signed a memorandum of understanding
with Group 42 in the UAE to fight COVID together.
For Lightstone, the former senior adviser to Friedman and special envoy for
economic normalization, enthusiasm for the Accords is effusive.
“It was surreal; there were things accomplished that in your wildest imagination
you wouldn’t have thought of them,” he says of the last year.
Each country had its own sensitivity. “I was on every direct first flight; to
Abu Dhabi and then Bahrain, and then from Abu Dhabi to Israel, and the first
flight to Morocco. What is important to know, recognize and appreciate is that
while there was a momentum of success in the region, each one of these
opportunities is and was unique on its own.” And it happened during the
pandemic.
“I had the unique opportunity to have a front-row seat for the Abraham Accords,
maybe at the conception. I was invited by UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed to
meet with him and bring the first-ever group of evangelical leaders to meet MBZ
in October 2018, and we had two hours with the crown prince in the palace just
sitting and talking with him about all the major issues,” recalls Joel
Rosenberg, editor of All Israel News and author of the forthcoming book Enemies
and Allies: An Unforgettable Journey inside the Fast-Moving & Immensely
Turbulent Modern Middle East.
Rosenberg says his group was interested in knowing if any Arab leaders in the
region were ready to make peace. “We said we had been praying for a long time,
but there hasn’t been an Arab leader since King Hussein ready to make peace; and
we were looking for the next Arab leader to do so.”
Bin Zayed, known as MBZ, stunned the group by leaning forward and saying “Joel,
I am ready to make peace with Israel.”
“We could hardly believe it, we hadn’t come thinking we would get an answer to
that question,” says Rosenberg.
On September 7, 2020, Rosenberg received a text message from Dr. Ali al-Nuaimi,
an adviser to MBZ, hours before the news broke. “Watch the news closely, big
story about to break.”
Back at the White House a senior official tells me that the joint statement on
August 13 was crafted with the idea it would exceed the previous peace deals
with Egypt and Jordan to lay the groundwork for warmth. The UAE was taking a
bold step. While Bahrain had been keen on peace and coexistence for years, the
perception was that Saudi Arabia needed to give a green light, and Saudi Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman was coordinating with MBZ. The UAE, larger than
Bahrain and facing a different set of circumstances, could go first with testing
the normalization waters.
“What I cared most about,” says the senior official, was having direct flights.
This paid off quickly because within a year 200,000 people had flown to the
Gulf.
The senior official points to key milestones, such as coexistence in sports such
as rugby, soccer and cycling; finance, security, health and even library ties;
coexistence groups like Sharaka that emerged, and then the diplomatic exchanges.
Eitan Na’eh, Israel’s former ambassador to Turkey, would be appointed the lead
diplomat in the UAE by January, until Foreign Minister Yair Lapid inaugurated an
embassy in Abu Dhabi on June 29, 2021. Mohamed Al Khaja would become the first
UAE ambassador to Israel in mid-February 2021.
“It’s been beautiful to watch,” says the senior official.
For many Trump administration officials, there was a sad point. Trump lost the
November election, just months after the Accords, and by January they were out
of office.
“You have to connect as many wires as you can, and it will fall into hands of
other people with different priorities,” the official says. Nevertheless, it is
a beacon in the region and a paradigm shift, the crafters say.
Yoel Guzansky, one of Israel’s foremost experts on the Gulf, is a senior
research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
specializing in Gulf politics and security.
“If we spoke a year ago, we wouldn’t be saying that in a year from now we will
be celebrating a year anniversary agreement with the UAE. We had good relations
under the table,” he says.
He has been going to the Gulf since before the Accords. He says one year is not
enough to do a full analysis, but it is impressive what has been accomplished.
“We tend to get used to things, good or bad, and things become less impressive,
and if you look at it in those eyes, so people will look at it as the new
normal.”
He points out that while the UAE and Israel have similarities, such as technical
innovation, the UAE received a number of incentives to make this happen, such as
Israel taking annexation off the table. The UAE is also supposed to get a deal
finalized from the US to get fifth-generation F-35 warplanes, which it has
wanted for years. The question he asks is what might come next, what would be
the price Israel might pay, for instance, for normalization with Riyadh.
Guzansky thinks the UAE took a calculated risk. Days before the accords,
Guzansky recalls being at INSS and being on a videoconference with colleagues
from the UAE. These kinds of meetings illustrated how normal the UAE was already
perceiving the relationship, before the announcement.
Today he looks back and notes that had Trump stayed in office, the momentum of
the Accords might have continued to include more countries. Now countries must
consider other issues, such as Iran’s growing power and the US drawing down in
the region.
AFTER THE Accords were announced and signed, Lightstone recalls, Friedman hosted
a delegation from Bahrain at his home in Jerusalem. He pauses, thinking about
it. The US ambassador was now in Jerusalem, not Tel Aviv, hosting a delegation
from a new peace partner in the Gulf. There were business leaders at the
meeting, and it felt natural. This is the message of the Accords many of those
involved point to. Once they were done, the sense of normality of working with
the Gulf was already there. For some businesspeople who had worked behind the
scenes or gone back and forth, this was merely coming in from the cold.
Barak, who has been involved with the Gulf for a decade after investing in an
Israeli tech company with significant activity in Abu Dhabi, says the
relationship has been developing at a rapid pace.
“There are things that were obvious – trade carried out via third countries
[e.g., Cyprus, Jordan] could now flow directly; tourism would bring Israelis to
Dubai in droves; Israelis would begin to operate through Dubai as a gateway to
the greater Middle East, India, South Asia and beyond.”
No one expected the warmth in people-to-people relations, he says. Friendships
are being formed, and religious, cultural and civil society engagement is
happening.
George Giles, co-founder of MEA consulting, says that last year has gone “from
the establishment of mutual embassies, to kidney donations between the two
countries, to business dealings with a $1.1 billion investment from Mubadala in
Israeli natural gas.”
For Ambassador Al Khaja, who has been settling in to his new environment in Tel
Aviv, “the Accords set a significant historic precedent that also requires an
unprecedented approach to tackle the embedded perceptions that developed over
the years. The Accords provided an opportunity of new hope and set forth a path
that could change our lives in the region for the sake of our children and
generations to come.”
Looking at the immediate success, most agree that everything is moving in the
right direction, with a few hurdles.
Hassan-Nahoum says that some Israelis thought they’d find a lot of investment
from the UAE in venture capital, and have been disappointed it didn’t happen as
fast. Trust-building needs to take place. There are many MoUs, and friendships
are growing. COVID restrictions have prevented people from the Gulf coming to
Israel. Israelis who did work in the Gulf before can now run businesses openly
linked to Israel.
“It’s a model for a new era of peace between Israel and Arab countries,” she
says.
Mohammed Baharoon, director-general of the Dubai Public Policy Research Center,
says that “the bilateral aspect is developing fast, but the surface of regional
potential has not been scratched yet.”
He has been meeting Israelis since an IMF meeting in Dubai in 2003, but he
describes the cautious optimism that has greeted the Accords as being on the
verge of a new discovery but not knowing how it will end. He points out that the
agreement is aimed at defusing the identity struggles and religious dimensions
of a conflict that has been perceived as a Jewish-Muslim conflict in recent
years.
“The conflict calculus has governed the dynamics of the region and needs to be
changed. It can’t be achieved without addressing the Palestinian issue.”
That means that while pushing coexistence can reduce radicalization and
terrorism in the region, the elephant in the room will remain the absence of
movement on the Palestinian issue.
It also means US commitment to the Accords under the Biden administration is
key. A special envoy for the Accords would help convince the countries involved
of US support. Reports in June said the Biden team might tap former ambassador
to Israel Dan Shapiro for an envoy job linked to the Accords’ countries.
IT HAS been a roller-coaster ride in the last year. In the fall of 2021 tens of
thousands of Israelis went to the UAE, and dozens of flights were going back and
forth a week. Then that stopped as Israel closed its main airport and ramped up
vaccinations. Netanyahu waffled on trips to the UAE, eventually leaving office
without going.
This left relations up to a new government in Israel and a new US
administration. Benjamin points to key visits by Lapid and also key delegations,
such as the July 2021 visit to Israel by Mariam Hareb Almheiri, minister of
state for food security. Bahrain sent a large delegation with Minister Zayed Al
Zayani, who signed an MoU in December 2020.
“It normally takes much longer; our foot is on the gas and not letting go at
all,” says Benjamin. “The challenge is getting to know each other. It is a
cultural challenge understanding complexities and sensitivities and
understanding basic culture on each end.... Understanding the messages on both
ends is important.”
Benjamin knows the complexities here, having served in China in the past.
Mansoori says that people in the UAE have been prepared for peace via the
strategic vision and messaging of the government.
“The feedback I got was highly positive, and people were very excited,” he
recalls. But expectations have been different on both sides. “We are
business-oriented, and we expected the pace to be faster for multiple
initiatives across different sectors.”
Mike Sussman, CEO of Sussman Corporate Security, who knows the Gulf hospitality
well after the past year, agrees. “Trade, peace and tolerance are all part of
it. But, ultimately, it is seeing beyond the unknown and each other’s
differences and understanding that in order for each other to succeed and
achieve that vision, we have to work together where we can contribute to one
another’s success.”
He says there should be a regional platform coming out of this peace agreement
to look at broader strategy. That means understanding the rising strength of
Iran and its connections to Russia and China, for instance.
Like many of those I spoke to, he notes that while Israelis have come to the UAE,
few people from the Emirates have been able to go to Israel. They don’t want to
ask for special permission, but, rather, to have the ease of travel envisioned
in the accords.
“We should move on the reciprocity of openness on both sides, such as exchanges
of visits.”
He also mentions that it is important that other countries in the region see the
benefit of peace.
“We need to work on building and developing a mechanism for business culture,”
he says, noting the importance of sharing technology and local success. This
points to becoming more self-reliant as a region and thinking strategically
together.
A key test of the accords was the Gaza conflict in May. Friedman, who met with
officials from Bahrain and the UAE recently, says that they told him
collectively that everyone passed the test. “We passed with flying colors; two
leaders used that term. I had a conversation with the foreign minister of UAE,
Sheikh Abdullah; he said, ‘Look, the great battle of the 21st century, it’s not
one people against another, it’s the extremists against the moderates. It exists
all over the world.’”
“Barriers have come down and more will, given the right international support,
vision, economic stability and political developments,” says Malcolm Honlein,
vice chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish
Organizations. “I have seen firsthand even in recent days that [the Accords]
have changed many of the prospects for regional cooperation, and there is more
openness beyond the signatory countries.”
The devotion to tolerance is what many point to. Barak says the UAE is certainly
the most tolerant and peaceful country in the region.
“This is a once-in-a-generational opportunity. If these peace agreements go the
way of Egypt and Jordan and become cold, then there is no benefit, and then the
Middle East we’ve known becomes the Middle East our kids will know,” says
Lightstone.
Business ties will need to increase as well through participation of Israeli
companies in trade shows and conferences, says Gil Kraeim of MEA Consultants.
“Throughout the year, Israeli companies have participated in major events and
trade shows, which started for the first time at GITEX, the biggest tech event
in the region.”
For Asher Fredman, CEO of Gulf-Israel Green Ventures, “the combination of Israel
and the UAE’s unique strengths, capabilities and spirit can transform the two
countries into global leaders in the fields of sustainable innovation and
development.”
Greenway agrees and adds that “we are waiting for Israel and Morocco to launch
their first business delegation.”
For many Jewish figures in the Gulf, the last year has been momentous as well.
Rabbi Menachem Genack, CEO of OU Kosher, says that “in the span of one year,
there were many announcements regarding kosher food in all three countries; and
as the world’s largest certification agency, we are proud to play a large role
in helping them to create more kosher infrastructure in their countries.” It
will stimulate Jewish tourism.
Ebrahim Dawood Nonoo, president of the Bahrain Jewish community, says he is
thrilled to celebrate this historic milestone – the first anniversary of the
Abraham Accords. “This year, we have welcomed many delegations from Israel and
expect that number to more than triple in a year or two.... We have been able to
have a few minyanim and are hoping to do that more regularly as the number of
tourists increases.”
The Iraqi-born Edwin Shuker, who has been living in Europe for the past 50 years
and is the outgoing vice president of the Board of Deputies of British Jews, is
also moving to the UAE. “We are witnessing a moment in history where Jews and
Arabs reconnect as the sons of Abraham. In the next few months I will be moving
to Dubai to witness it.”
Ellie Cohanim, senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and former US
deputy special envoy to combat antisemitism, says that this past year has seen
unfold a “reunion between Israelis and their Arab neighbors.... With this
reunion we are also witnessing a correlating decrease in Jew-hatred and
anti-Zionism in the Abraham Accords countries, but also as a ripple effect,
throughout the region.”
Houda Nonoo agrees. “As one of the few indigenous Jews in the Arabian Gulf, it
is particularly meaningful to me. As a citizen of this region, I am filled with
excitement to see the construction of a new Middle East, one focused on
coexistence and prosperity.”
She thanks King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa and His Royal Highness, Prince Salman
Bin Hamad Al Khalifa, the crown prince and prime minister, for their leadership
and vision in the signing of the Abraham Accords.
A year after the Accords, they are still impactful.
“It was the kind of news that you needed to double-check was true!” recalls
Michael Dickson, executive director, StandWithUs-Israel. “If the initial feeling
towards this breakthrough was tantalizing, then the reality a year on is even
more so.”
Companies such as IAI stress that they are now looking to grow partnerships in
the UAE. The Israeli Foreign Ministry is working “tirelessly” to deepen and
expand relations.
“The momentum of the Abraham Accords has opened the door for promoting
cooperation in the regional ecosystem. Exhibitions, like CyberTech and the
upcoming Dubai Airshow, provide IAI with an opportunity to meet local partners
and vendors, and broaden the levels of co-production and co-development of
systems. IAI’s activity in the region will cater to the needs of our Emirati
customer, adding value to the development and localization of joint technology,"
says Sharon Biton, the Marketing Vice-President at IAI.
“We would like to see other countries join, and we are working on that, and we
want to see our immediate neighbors go further.... We are open for initiatives,
and it is an important message for us to relay – a message of the importance of
these new relations and the benefit of the relations to the region,” says
Benjamin. “In the coming years we will work to strengthen relations with our
Palestinian neighbors, to deepen relations with Egypt and Jordan, to further
develop our new alliances, and to continue expanding the accords – never
hesitating to defend ourselves while never ceasing to chase new prospects for
peace,” says Gantz.