English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 11/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
The Fruitless Fig Tree Parable
Luke 13/06-09: “Then Jesus told this parable: ‘A man had a fig tree planted in his vineyard; and he came looking for fruit on it and found none. So he said to the gardener, “See here! For three years I have come looking for fruit on this fig tree, and still I find none. Cut it down! Why should it be wasting the soil?” He replied, “Sir, let it alone for one more year, until I dig round it and put manure on it. If it bears fruit next year, well and ’good; but if not, you can cut it down.” ’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 10-11/2021
Lebanon's Aoun Shields Rai After He Urged Halt to Rockets
Aoun Defends Freedom of Speech, Condemns Campaign against al-Rahi
Presidency Denies Aoun Has Asked for 12 Ministers
Berri Schedules a Parliamentary Session over MPs Port Blast Charges
Geagea: Hizbullah Asked Some Top Suspects Not to Testify to Bitar
Miqati, FPM Deny PM-Designate Met Bassil
U.S. Provides Nearly $100M in Additional Humanitarian Aid for Lebanon
Conflicting Reports on Govt. Formation Prospects
U.N. Says More than Half of Lebanon's Migrant Workers Need Help
Hezbollah under fire as Lebanese political, economic crises continue/Najia Houssari/Arab News/August 10/2021
Previous Trend: Very Negative/Tony Badran/FDD/August 10/2021
The Poison Maker and the 'Useful Idiot'/Sam Menassa/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 10/2021
Enemies in the Gates/Michael Young/Carnegie/August 10/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 10-11/2021
Trial over Iran 1988 mass murder puts spotlight on regime practices
CIA Chief Visits Israel amid Iran Tensions
From Israel, Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Criticizes Iran Nuclear Deal
Israeli Troops Shoot, Arrest Suspected Palestinian Attacker
Israeli National Security Adviser Meets with Egyptian Counterpart
Burhan, High-level Sudanese Delegation, to Visit Turkey at End of Month
Egypt Strengthens Water Management Cooperation with Iraq
Egypt Stages Tactical Army Training in Sinai
Algeria to Inoculate 60% of People in Provinces Hit Hardest by Covid
Syria's Assad Approves New Cabinet
‘Don’t Come Back, We Want to Leave,’ Syrians Advise Returning Refugees
Pedersen Turns Attention to Syria’s Daraa amid Local Calls for ‘Decentralization’
Turkey Speaks of Deal with Russia on Securing Electricity, Water in Northeast Syria
Iraq FM in Tehran Talks ahead of Mooted Baghdad Summit
Baghdad faces uncertainties as it announces a regional conference
US Announces $165 Million Humanitarian Aid to Yemen
Canada strongly condemns China’s sentence of death imposed on a Canadian citizen
The Road To Damascus Is Paved With Good Intentions
Fifth northern Afghan capital falls to the Taliban
U.S. Envoy in Doha to Press Taliban for End to Offensive

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 10-11/2021
Turkey’s Anti-Kurdish Measures Violate Religious Freedom/Aykan Erdemir/Sude Akgundogdu/Providence/August 10/2021
America, Iran and the Costly Dance/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 10/2021
Arabs Celebrate Downfall of Tunisia’s Islamists/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/August 10, 2021
Biden’s ‘building back boring’ leaves little time for Arab allies/Faisal Al Yafai/The Arab Weekly/August 10/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 10-11/2021
Lebanon's Aoun Shields Rai After He Urged Halt to Rockets
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
President Michel Aoun on Tuesday condemned criticism of Lebanon's Maronite patriarch after he expressed opposition to the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, warning that insults must be avoided to safeguard national unity. Following a cross-border salvo between Israel and Hezbollah, Patriarch Beshara Al-Rai was sharply critical of Hezbollah on Sunday, saying no group should decide on war and peace and urging the army to halt rocket fire from the south. The border flare-up on Friday drew criticism from Hezbollah's opponents in Lebanon, where hardship is mounting due to a crippling financial meltdown. Aoun – an ally of Hezbollah - condemned the campaigns to which he said Rai was being subjected and emphasized that freedom of expression was protected by the constitution during a phone call between the two, the presidency said. Other views should "remain in the political frame and should not tend to insult or offend, to safeguard national unity and guarantee general stability in the country", Aoun said. Rai said that while Lebanon had not decided to make peace with Israel, neither had it decided to go to war and Lebanon did not want to be embroiled in military actions that would "draw destructive Israeli responses". Without naming Hezbollah, Rai urged the army to halt rocket attacks from Lebanon "not out of concern for Israel's safety, but out of concern for Lebanon's safety". While Hezbollah has not commented on Rai's comments, its supporters accused him of surrender and supporting Zionism on social media. Hezbollah said it had fired rockets into open ground near Israeli forces in the disputed Shebaa Farms area on Friday in retaliation for Israeli air strikes in Lebanon a day earlier that had also hit open ground.Tension at the border began on Wednesday with a rocket strike from Lebanon for which no group claimed responsibility and on which Hezbollah has not commented.

Aoun Defends Freedom of Speech, Condemns Campaign against al-Rahi
Naharnet/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
President Michel Aoun called the Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi Tuesday to condemn the political and social media campaign against him, stressing that insults against the patriarchal seat are rejected. Aoun emphasized during the call that "freedom of opinion and expression is protected under the constitution” and condemned “defamation and abuse.”“Any other opinion must remain within the political framework, in order to preserve national unity and guarantee general stability in the country," Aoun concluded. Al-Rahi had deplored on Sunday the ignition of the situation in the border areas from the vicinity of residential villages."We also cannot accept that a party take the peace and war decisions outside the decision of the state and the national decision," al-Rahi also said, referring to Hizbullah, which sparked a political and social media uproar against him.

Presidency Denies Aoun Has Asked for 12 Ministers
Naharnet/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
The Presidency on Tuesday denied a media report that claimed that President Michel Aoun has asked for 12 out of 24 ministerial seats in the new cabinet.
“This information and others allegations contained in the aforementioned article (in Ashraq al-Awsat newspaper) are baseless,” the Presidency’s press office said in a statement. “It is totally fabricated and deliberately aimed at harming the ongoing cooperation between President Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati for the formation of the new government.”

Lebanon: Aoun Wants Half of Ministers in Mikati Govt
Beirut - Mohammed Choucair/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati was surprised during his last meeting with President Michel Aoun by the latter’s demand of a share of 12 ministers, or half of the ministerial portfolios, political sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. According to the sources, Aoun’s new conditions have returned the government formation negotiations to square one, noting that the president stipulated that there would be no possibility to resume the talks unless Mikati agreed to his demand. The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Paris was forced to intervene, warning that hindering the formation process would force it to take an irreversible stance towards the political team affiliated with Aoun, starting with the head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and the president’s son-in-law, MP Gebran Bassil. Paris is directly keeping pace with the recent developments, the sources stressed, given that French Ambassador Anne Grillo is on annual leave. Consequently, Aoun was forced, under pressure from Paris, to maintain the channels of communication with Mikati and sent Bassil to meet with the premier-designate. The sources stressed that Bassil is planning from now to control the government, even if it means obstructing its productivity, should his demands remain unmet. Aoun’s son-in-law wants to have the last say in the government, otherwise he will seek to disrupt its ability to make any efficient decision. Bassil had previously announced that he will not be part of the government. This has not deterred him from attempting to impose his influence and seek to become a partner in decisions it takes. Otherwise, he would be forced to thwart it from taking any decision, said the sources. Aoun is blindly following his son-in-law, paving the way for him to not only control half the government, but to seize service portfolios that would improve his image ahead of next year’s elections, which perhaps will restore his chances of running for president. Therefore, if Aoun does not change his position, it will be as if he wants to use all his political weight to serve Bassil’s electoral ambitions.

Berri Schedules a Parliamentary Session over MPs Port Blast Charges
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri called on Tuesday for a parliamentary session to be scheduled for Thursday. The session will be held at 11:00 a.m. at the UNESCO Palace to look into the port blast charges against the three MPs -- Ali Hassan Khalil, Ghazi Zoaiter, Nouhad al-Mashnouq. Several blocs had recently signed a controversial petition for prosecuting the three lawmakers before the Higher Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers. The move has been perceived by many as an attempt to provide political protection for some figures.

Geagea: Hizbullah Asked Some Top Suspects Not to Testify to Bitar
Naharnet/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Tuesday hit out at Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah over his latest remarks on the port blast case.
“Some of the accused who have bad intentions are promoting the idea that those who caused the port blast were Muslims and that those affected were Christians and this is not true. Those promoting these remarks are seeking to protect themselves,” Geagea said at a press conference.Blasting Nasrallah’s “massive attack on investigative judge Tarek al-Bitar,” Geagea wondered how the Hizbullah leader has known that “the technical investigation has ended.”Nasrallah “demonstrated how some media outlets have launched accusations against Hizbullah, but what does Bitar have to do with this matter?" the LF leader asked. “Have you ever heard of the confidentiality of investigations?” Geagea added, addressing Nasrallah. “We fully know that officials from Hizbullah have communicated with some suspects and senior officials who have been summoned to interrogation, asking them not to appear before Bitar,” the LF chief charged. “I don’t Judge Bitar in person but all the feedback confirms that he is an honest and upright judge,” Geagea went on to say. Criticizing Nasrallah for “inciting the people against Judge Bitar and asking them to head to his house so that he reveals to them the results of the technical probe,” the LF leader again asked the Hizbullah chief whether he has knowledge of the investigation’s details. “Then tell us what you know and how you know that there are no unified standards in the investigation,” Geagea added.

Miqati, FPM Deny PM-Designate Met Bassil
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati’s press office has refuted “fabricated news” published by “some media outlets” about “alleged meetings and side negotiations” between Miqati and the head of the Free Patriotic Movement Jebran Bassil. Miqati’s press office confirmed in a statement on Tuesday that “no meeting has taken place” between Miqati and “any mediator of the President,” concerning the new government formation. The only meetings that took place, according to Miqati’s press office, are the official announced meetings. Miqati, in the statetement, advised the media “to be aware of the delicacy of the stage and not to fabricate news that might perturb the situation and deviate the government formation process from its right track.”The FPM’s central media committee also denied in a statement on Tuesday the reports about the Bassil-Miqati meeting.The statement urged the media to “adhere to professionalism and objectivity and to refrain from fabricating news and promoting lies with known intentions."

U.S. Provides Nearly $100M in Additional Humanitarian Aid for Lebanon
Naharnet/Tuesday, 10 August, 202
U.S. President Joseph Biden has announced nearly $100 million in new humanitarian assistance for Lebanon.
“This assistance from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the U.S. Department of State will help people affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and its compounding socioeconomic impacts on the Lebanese people. The funding will also support Syrian refugees sheltering in Lebanon,” a U.S. statement said. With the $41 million of USAID funding, the United States will provide urgently needed food assistance, health care, protection, and water and sanitation support to communities, including those impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Importantly, this also includes food assistance to help 400,000 vulnerable Lebanese beneficiaries. Along with funding provided by the U.S. Department of State, this support brings total U.S. humanitarian assistance in Lebanon to more than $372 million in Fiscal Year 2021; in response to COVID-19, the humanitarian impacts of the August 2020 explosions at the Port of Beirut, and the ongoing Syrian refugee crisis. “The United States is the single largest donor of humanitarian assistance in Lebanon. With so many compounding emergencies in the country and region, including a growing economic crisis, the United States is deeply concerned about the continuing increase in humanitarian needs, and urges other donors to step up to provide much needed support to save lives,” the U.S. statement added.

Conflicting Reports on Govt. Formation Prospects
Naharnet/Tuesday, 10 August, 202
The government formation process is “not deadlocked” although “the waves of pessimism seem to be high,” a media report published Tuesday said. “The optimistic expectations are based on PM-designate Najib Miqati’s patience and his deep understanding of the threats that may arise if he resigns,” the Kuwaiti al-Anbaa newspaper reported. Tuesday’s meeting between President Michel Aoun and Miqati will determine how things will go in the near future, knowing that “Aoun has become convinced of keeping the same confessional distribution for the four sovereign portfolios,” the daily added.Pessimists meanwhile believe that the problem between Aoun and Miqati, and previously between Aoun and Saad Hariri, is not about the “conflicting moods, roles or powers,” but rather about “Aoun’s intention” to block the government’s formation to “suspend key elections that it would have to organize, starting by the parliamentary polls and the presidential elections,” the newspaper said.

U.N. Says More than Half of Lebanon's Migrant Workers Need Help
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 10 August, 202
More than half of Lebanon's migrant workers are in need of "urgent humanitarian assistance" to survive an economic crisis that has plunged most of the population into poverty, the U.N. warned Tuesday. The country of six million is in the throes of a financial downturn branded by the World Bank as one of the worst since the mid-19th century, with the local currency losing more than 90 percent of its black market value.  Seventy eight percent of the country's population now live in poverty, the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said last week -- a proportion far higher than last year's figure of around 55 percent. Extreme poverty has reached an estimated 36 per cent of the Lebanese population, OCHA said. The International Organization for Migration said Tuesday that migrant workers had been hit especially hard. “They have lost their jobs. They are hungry, they cannot access medical care and feel unsafe," the U.N. agency's Mathieu Luciano said. "Many are so desperate that they want to leave the country, but they do not have the means to do so”. According to the IOM, out of the 210,000 migrant workers living in Lebanon, around 120,000 are in need of humanitarian assistance. Officially pegged at 1,500 to the greenback, the Lebanese pound now sells for more than 20,000 on the black market, sparking rapid inflation. This has eaten away at already low wages for migrant workers, preventing most from sending money back home.

Hezbollah under fire as Lebanese political, economic crises continue
Najia Houssari/Arab News/August 10/2021
BEIRUT: Hezbollah drew fresh criticism on Monday from the streets and the political class over the crisis in Lebanon. Angry residents blocked several roads in protest against the economic crisis. As the Lebanese pound’s value plummets, the country is also experiencing a major medicines shortage. The process of forming a government headed by Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati is slowly coming to a stalemate.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah launched a broadside against the Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai, accusing him of taking stances that are no different than Israel’s.
In his Sunday sermon, Al-Rai stressed that “the decision of war or peace should be in the hands of the state exclusively,” calling for “a return to the 1949 Armistice Agreements and Lebanon’s neutrality.”
Hezbollah’s campaign against Al-Rai elicited counter-reactions from various political figures and numerous Christian religious and political entities.
Druze leader Walid Jumblatt tweeted on Monday: “What crime did Al-Rai commit when he mentioned the armistice agreement? It seems that it is forbidden to discuss anything outside of the opposition group’s discourse,” sarcastically adding: “A democratic atmosphere par excellence.”
Resigned MP Marwan Hamade accused Hezbollah of igniting tension on the southern border with Israel and slammed the group for its attack on the judicial investigator in the Beirut port explosion crime Judge Tarek Bitar.
Hamade addressed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah: “Your graciousness has set us back 50 years. “The balance of deterrence advocated by Hezbollah is a pretext for controlling Lebanon.” Saydet Al-Jabal Gathering warned that “if this campaign (against Al-Rai) does not stop immediately, we will take action in several cities.”Former MP Ahmed Fatfat told Arab News: “The Lebanese state is collapsing because there is a parallel state — the state of Hezbollah. It seems that we are now experiencing the Iraqi scenario, and even more.
“Hezbollah suggests that it has the ability to replace the state, but in fact, it has so far failed to do so. Its entourage suffers like all the Lebanese, due to Hezbollah’s practices that destroyed the state.”
He added: “Iran will not allow the formation of the government in Lebanon as long as the Iranian-US negotiations are ongoing.
“Nasrallah has, for the first time, admitted that there is no consensus over the resistance in Lebanon. “This means that Hezbollah has lost supporters and stature, and its intimidation policy no longer works on people.
“The biggest evidence is that the families of the Beirut port victims carried a banner that read Iran Out on Aug. 4. People have other priorities now.”
Fatfat said that Hezbollah’s stances regarding medicine and fuel imports from Iran are mere propaganda. “The Iranians did it once in Venezuela, but they took gold in exchange. Do they want to get their hands on the gold that is in the Lebanese Central Bank?”Elsewhere, caretaker Health Minister Hamad Hassan — affiliated with Hezbollah — criticized “financial and political decision-makers.”
Hassan said in an interview on Sunday: “The Central Bank and drug importing companies are responsible for exposing the health system in Lebanon to grave danger.”
Hassan defended medicine imports from Iran.
“The Central Bank and the importing companies are responsible for every missing medicine,” said the minister.
“A decision to urgently import and register missing medicines has been taken; any medicine that meets the conditions and standards will be imported.”
Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah also tried to pressure the Central Bank on Monday, saying that the latter “is insisting on controlling the decision to lift subsidies on oil derivatives and medicines.”
Fadlallah said Hezbollah “is exerting efforts to expedite the import of fuel from Iran.”
Sidon, the third major Lebanese coastal city after Beirut and Tripoli, sank into complete darkness on Monday, amid demands to secure diesel fuel as soon as possible.
Lebanese cities continue to fall into darkness as private generator owners announce that they are running out of fuel in light of strict rationing by the Electricite du Liban.
The Lebanese are being supplied with an average of one hour a day of fuel, as the Central Bank has used up most of the foreign currency it needs to purchase fuel for state electricity.
There are over 3,500 private generators in Lebanon, with monthly bills for subscribers raised to more than 1.5 million Lebanese pounds ($992).
MP Michel Daher complained on Monday that he “receives hundreds of visits daily from patients who need missing medicines. When importers are asked, they say that the Ministry of Health prices unsubsidized medicines at the rate of 12,000 Lebanese pounds to the dollar, half the actual value of the black market rate, which prompted them to stop importing.”

Previous Trend: Very Negative
Tony Badran/FDD/August 10/2021
After Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel on August 6, State Department spokesman Ned Price condemned the attack and called on the Lebanese authorities to prevent future ones. However, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), for which the Biden administration has increased funding, assisted Hezbollah’s operation by returning the rocket launcher and four operatives to the group after they were stopped by Druze villagers while returning from the attack. A few days before the attack, the U.S. military attaché in Beirut lauded the LAF and announced “creative” new ways to support it. According to the attaché, the administration is looking into using presidential drawdown authority to send more aid not just for the LAF “but also their families.” Two days before Hezbollah’s rocket attack, President Biden had committed the United States to supporting any Lebanese government dedicated to economic reform and fighting corruption, even as the administration knows that Hezbollah will participate in a future government and maintain predominant influence over it. As a result of its growing investment in Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon, the Biden administration, a Western diplomat told Asharq al-Awsat, pressured Israel not to disrupt the status quo following Hezbollah’s rocket attack.

The Poison Maker and the 'Useful Idiot'
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 10/2021
The August 4 port crime, whose first anniversary went by last week, is the biggest and most dangerous of a series of various crimes that have been and continue to be committed against the country during the “strong reign,” which has been surpassing all precedents.
There is no disagreement that no crime can be equated with the port blast. Its magnitude and implications should make it a turning point for examining the state the country finds itself in. However, it seems the blast's business is continuing to expand tirelessly and that the poison being cooked up for the country’s future runs along the same lines as the Port of Beirut blast. Actually, it could be even more dangerous politically because it aims to blow up the country as an entity and the framework for coexistence among the Lebanese. It is superficially and mistakenly described as the government formation crisis, while, in reality, it is a poisonous dish being prepared for the Lebanese, and its implications and dimensions could be more dangerous than the port blast.
We have been preparing to eat this poisonous dish for years, and it seems that our “meal” has been cooked. It includes, as it seems, a reexamination of the existing political system and structure, starting with the Taif Agreement as mentioned previously, weakening the Sunni figures nominated to take the position of prime minister one after the other, doing away with the power granted to the council of ministers as a whole, and establishing new ground rules tailor-designed to favor the ruling party and its entourage.
Early last week, the former state minister for presidential affairs and current advisor to President Michel Aoun, Pierre Raffoul, warned Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati against adopting former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s approach, saying: “If he wants to hold on to his terms, he will fly as Hariri did.” This rhetoric was espoused following Raffoul’s meeting with Aoun and was voiced during a television interview. Its danger lies in the fact that, on the one hand, it was not seriously responded to by any political parties from any sect- and this applies to Mikati and his response as well- while, on the other hand, it expresses President Aoun’s genuine thoughts and desires. Thirdly and most importantly, it resembles the port blast, except that its ramifications will not be limited to the destruction of the capital’s buildings and the lives of its residents but will also detonate Lebanon that we have come to know, consciously and premeditatedly.
Since Lebanon’s independence, the drafting of its first constitution, and the consensus that emerged around the National Pact, no Christian president has ever dealt with his Sunni partner in this haughty manner. He is challenging the Sunni sect not only locally but regionally as well, and demonstrating, once again, that his mentality, behavior, and intransigence come within the framework of the regional project that has been addressed repeatedly, that of the Iranian axis. It is impossible that the position of the President of the Republic to speak for only the president’s political movement, and it has become redundant to say that it has crystallized under the Iranian regional sponsor’s watch, and the practices being described as demonstrating intransigence are aimed at furthering Tehran’s expansionist project.
Neither the fragile and polarized internal Christian dynamic nor the regional situation allows for the Christian Lebanese President to face off against the Sunnis, both locally and on the Arab and foreign level, without Iranian support. This is how one could explain the slogans of protecting minorities, Levantinism, and turning east, as well as the rush to draw links with the Assad regime within a plan being implemented day by day.
Presidential Palace sources did not push back against Mr. Raffoul’s statements, and the President himself did nothing to expedite the emergence of a government on the first anniversary of the port blast- in what could have been a tribute honoring the scale of the suffering and a sign of respect for the thousands who protested. Instead, they saw a televised speech that obscured their demands for justice, rubbing salt on their wounds, especially as the authorities dealt with the day like it was any other; as it would go by as the day of the blast had, that the next day would be another working day.
What is also remarkable is that Christian leaders did not react to Raffoul’s statement and the President and his team’s silence about the formation process, opting to put their heads in the sand. A stance that can be explained in two ways: flagrant political naivety, which, if it is the actual reasoning behind the stance is deadly. Alternatively, it could be an implicit endorsement of this clownish behavior compelled by a misguided conviction that the Christians can, through these practices, retain some of the powers that had been taken from the President in a hypothetical republic. The second option would be superficial satiation of Christian selfishness whose political thought has been unsettled for a long time.
The problem is that Christians are divided between Aoun supporters and those opposing him reluctantly and shakily, thinking the next legislative elections can produce a new regime amid the presence of an armed Hezbollah, overlooking the fact that they, the parties opposed to Hezbollah, had won in two previous election cycles without this having any political consequences, leading the country to the state it is in today.
Politically, the term “useful idiot” is used to describe those seen as promoting a cause without fully understanding its goals. Useful idiots are cynically and cleverly exploited by those behind the cause, i.e., Hezbollah, which is too savvy to directly rule over a country that is pluralistic on the one hand, and where, on the other hand, the Sunnis’ numbers, their social and economic influence, and their Arab connections cannot be underestimated.
It thus badly needs the Christians to play the role of the “useful idiot,” to create a façade that they are in power, thereby satisfying the majority of Christians after of course, they had been domesticated, and fears of the specter of imminent Sunni violent extremism (as if Hezbollah is a charity) had been stirred up, thereby allowing the party to dominate and make decisions without directly ruling. Bluntly, this term applies to the situation between Hezbollah and the Communist movement.
Unfortunately, this is not the first time. We are familiar with the outcome of using the outside and the experiences with Syria and Israel. Those attempts led to decade-long occupations, and today, we are faced with an occupation whose duration only God can ascertain. All are experiences of attempts to disregard a blessing that we cannot put a price on coexistence, and this is exposed by some of the calls for federalism and its offshoots. Hezbollah has exploited this poison well, and it has helped the party further the expansionist Iranian project and confront all the Arabs.
Hezbollah believes that this approach has averted Sunni-Shiite strife while creating Sunni-Christian discord, which it sees as having less of an impact and is less costly to security and stability. And, unfortunately, it seems that maintaining security and stability, even under Hezbollah’s domination, is what the reluctant international community is calling for. The comical aid contributions and the political blindness of some of the Paris Conference members that it revealed are perhaps the best indications of the validity of what we are saying.
Parliament was dominated, a bizarre and unusual electoral was imposed, and the election of any figure other than Michel Aoun was disrupted. Now, it is time for the executive authority, the council of ministers, which is the backbone of coexistence, and the banner under which sects escape their insularism. Meanwhile, the international community is satisfied with the meager outcomes of the Paris Conference. Thank you, France!

Enemies in the Gates
Michael Young/Carnegie/August 10/2021
Hezbollah’s actions in the past year and a half have turned many Lebanese against the party.
If Hezbollah believes that an essential dimension of its resistance against Israel is a Lebanese environment friendly to the party and its aims, then nothing in the past two years has shown that it is implementing this idea. Since the uprising against the political class in October 2019, Hezbollah has made numerous errors that have only led more Lebanese to oppose its standing in the country.
In the past two weeks the party has faced several challenges, showing that not all is well. Two weeks ago, party members clashed with armed members of a Sunni tribe at the southern entrance of Beirut. The fighting followed a tribesman’s revenge killing of a Hezbollah member accused of shooting the tribesman’s brother. At the party member’s funeral, tribesmen ambushed the convoy, killing several people. Soon both sides were involved in a pitched battle. Rather than allow an escalation that would have had sectarian repercussions, Hezbollah asked the army to intervene and end the violence.
Days later, Hezbollah responded to an Israeli air attack against southern Lebanon by firing rockets around Israeli military positions in the occupied Shebaa Farms and Kfar Shouba hills. However, when a party truck loaded with rockets drove through the Druze village of Shouwayya, villagers stopped it, roughed up the Hezbollah members, and confiscated the truck. They were furious that the party was firing from near their village, and that Israel might retaliate against them. Subsequently, Shia-Druze tensions rose in other parts of the country.
Last Sunday, Maronite Patriarch Bishara al-Rai, in his weekly sermon, affirmed that the Lebanese state alone should have the right to declare war, implicitly criticizing Hezbollah’s rocket attack against the Israelis. He added that Lebanon was bound by the 1949 Armistice Agreement with Israel. Within hours, Hezbollah trolls launched a social media campaign in which they heaped abuse on the patriarch.
None of these events—involving a Shia party facing opposition from Sunni, Druze, and Maronite quarters—will change Hezbollah’s behavior. But if the party ignores what is happening, it could be showing once again that its default setting for dealing with domestic contestation of its power is to engage in hubris. And Lebanon has a way of punishing those who ignore its sectarian strictures, as many political actors who have dealt with the country can attest.
What the displeasure of the Sunni tribesmen, Druze villagers, and Maronite patriarch showed, above all, is that Hezbollah will face a hostile population if the party decides to carry Lebanon into a destructive war with Israel on Iran’s behalf. The party feels under increasing pressure amid Israeli pledges to target its precision guided missiles. Nor can it have missed the threat last week by Israel’s defense minister, Benny Gantz, that Israel was willing to attack Iran. The slow pace of negotiations in Vienna over a U.S. return to the nuclear accord with Iran has also raised the party’s sense of vulnerability.
Beyond that, Hezbollah has not looked kindly on increasing international intervention in Lebanon to help address the country’s metastasizing financial, economic, and social crises. The party wants to retain Lebanon as an exclusive Iranian resource, but signs that other countries want a say in what happens there—including Hezbollah’s ally Syria—agitate Hezbollah officials.
Much of what is taking place today is Hezbollah’s own fault. The party’s strong opposition to the uprising in 2019 lost it much sympathy in Lebanon. The party was seen as the prime protector of a corrupt political class. Since that time, Hezbollah has only exacerbated the dire economic situation by smuggling subsidized fuel to Syria. Many Lebanese also believe Hezbollah brought in the ammonium nitrate that exploded in Beirut port on August 4, 2020, to be used in its own missiles or for barrel bombs in Syria. When the party’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, declared last week that the investigation into the blast by judge Tareq Bitar was “politicized,” it was apparent that Hezbollah had something to hide. Bitar had sinned by asking to interview senior security officials, former ministers, and parliamentarians, many aligned with Hezbollah.
An increasing number of Lebanese are realizing that the concept of a Lebanese state cannot coexist with a powerful armed militia serving an outside power. That is why there is growing anger with Hezbollah, and a feeling that the party actually benefits from Lebanon’s economic and social breakdown, as this will allow it to impose its own preferences on the country. Hezbollah doesn’t seem to care much about this negative mood, however, ignoring the warnings of even some of its staunchest supporters who have stated that “resistance” is about much more than weapons, it is also about creating the appropriate setting in which Hezbollah can operate.
Such dynamics are worrisome because they are the dynamics of civil war. When time and again the major representative of an essential national religious community shows its indifference to Lebanon’s unwritten red lines, when it is increasingly seen as being responsible for death and destruction in the country, the only thing that averts conflict is a fear of the ruinous consequences. But what is disturbing today is that more and more Lebanese are no longer scared of Hezbollah, as the three incidents in recent weeks have shown.
It is equally evident that Hezbollah doesn’t have the predisposition to alter its behavior. While the party is keen to avoid sectarian conflict, as this would undermine its contract with Iran to combat Israel, its natural reflexes work against making any concessions. The party won’t hesitate to antagonize its domestic partners if this is justified by Iran’s overriding interests. This creates risky dynamics: As Hezbollah gambles precariously on behalf of its Iranian sponsor regionally, the potential domestic dangers it faces will also rise.
Hezbollah’s willingness to accept this reality was evident in Nasrallah’s speech on August 7. In his remarks, the secretary general admitted that the rifts within Lebanon over the resistance were old as there had never been unanimity over the question in the country. This was an astonishing statement. After having long insisted that there was a national consensus over the resistance, Nasrallah admitted this was untrue. In other words, against the naysayers, it was up to him and his Iranian overseers to determine what was good for Lebanon.
Faced with such blatant disregard for any possibility of national consent, the Lebanese over time tend to react more violently. That is not to say that a war is inevitable, as it takes more than outrage to put the machine of conflict in motion, but the objective conditions for one are slowly coming into place. Such an outcome would be a disaster for Lebanon, all the more so as there are plenty of regional powers willing to fuel the fire. Hezbollah could not win such a war, but it is certain that all of Lebanon would lose.
Few Lebanese want war, and Hezbollah will try to reinforce this reluctance by playing brinksmanship and indicating it is willing to fight. The problem is that the Lebanese are reaching a breaking point, as their state is disintegrating. The levers the party once used to keep everyone in check—the army and the security services—are no longer as effective. In such a context Hezbollah has to be careful. Without the repressive bodies of the state as backup, the party could resort to the direct intimidation of its opponents. Were it to do so, other communities would likely take up arms in response.
If Nasrallah knows that Lebanon is divided over the resistance, he can guess the strength of the backlash a future war with Israel might provoke. Does Hezbollah really feel it can pursue an approach in which its wars have to be fought in duplicate—one against an external enemy, first, followed by another against its domestic rivals?
*Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 10-11/2021
Trial over Iran 1988 mass murder puts spotlight on regime practices
The Arab Weekly/August 10/2021
STOCKHOLM--An Iranian official accused of involvement in the 1988 execution of thousands of political dissidents goes on trial in Sweden on Tuesday in a landmark case likely to stoke tensions in the Islamic republic. Hamid Noury, 60, is accused by Swedish prosecutors of “intentionally taking the life of a very large number of prisoners sympathetic to or belonging to the People’s Mujahedin” (MEK) between 30 July and 16 August 1988, while he was assistant to the deputy governor of Gohardasht prison in Karaj, near Tehran. Human rights organisations have long campaigned for justice for the estimated 5,000 prisoners killed across Iran, allegedly under the orders of supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini in reprisal for attacks carried out by the MEK at the end of the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88. Swedish court officials believe Tuesday’s case is the first of its kind against someone accused over the killings. The allegations were brought to the attention of the Swedish authorities by a group of 30 complainants, as well as justice campaigner and former political prisoner Iraj Mesdaghi. After compiling an evidence dossier of “several thousand pages” on Noury, Mesdaghi set about luring the former prison official to the Nordic country with the promise of a luxury cruise. Noury was arrested as he stepped onto Swedish soil. Sweden’s principle of universal jurisdiction means that its courts can try a person on serious charges such as murder or war crimes regardless of where the alleged offences took place. “This is the first time that one of the persecutors has been held accountable in another country,” Mesdaghi said. Noury “denies any accusation of involvement in the alleged executions of 1988,” his lawyer Thomas Soderqvist said.
Sensitive issue
The case is particularly sensitive in Iran, where campaigners accuse current government figures of having a role in the deaths, most notably new president Ebrahim Raisi. The former head of Iran’s judiciary was accused by Amnesty International in 2018 of being a member of a “death commission” which was behind the secret executions. Questioned in 2018 and 2020, Raisi denied involvement but paid “tribute” to Ayatollah Khomeini’s “order” to carry out the purge. Khomeini died in 1989. In early May, more than 150 personalities, including Nobel Prize winners, former heads of state and former UN officials, called for an international investigation into the 1988 executions. Hamid Noury is also charged with having participated in the execution of other prisoners during the same period on the basis of their ideology or belief, considered opponents of the “theocratic Iranian state”, according to the prosecution.
The court will hear dozens of witnesses over three days of sittings, with a verdict expected in April 2022.

CIA Chief Visits Israel amid Iran Tensions
Agence France Presse/Tuesday/10 August, 2021
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency chief William Burns was due in Israel Tuesday for talks on common foe Iran, as rising tensions overshadow talks on restoring a landmark nuclear deal. A spokesman for Prime Minister Naftali Bennett gave no details of the agenda for the CIA chief's talks in Israel. But the Walla News website said he would discuss Iran's nuclear program and its activities in the region with both Bennett and his Israeli counterpart David Barnea. Walla News said Burns would also travel to Ramallah in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, for talks with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas and intelligence chief Majed Faraj. The visit comes amid what analysts have called a "shadow war", that has seen a spate of attacks on vessels linked to Iran and Israel. Last month, the MT Mercer Street, an oil products tanker operated by Israeli-controlled Zodiac maritime, was struck by a drone off the Omani coast, killing two crew members -- a Briton and a Romanian. G7 foreign ministers on Friday pointed the finger of blame for the attack at Iran, as the U.S. military released the findings of an investigation alleging the drones were made in the Islamic republic.Iran dismissed the allegations. A career diplomat, Burns played a key role in the U.S. rapprochement with Iran that led to a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and major powers. With strong support from Israel, then president Donald Trump abandoned the agreement in 2018 and re-imposed punishing sanctions on Iran. But his successor Joe Biden's administration has held multiple rounds of indirect talks with Iran on returning to the deal.

From Israel, Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Criticizes Iran Nuclear Deal
Tel Aviv/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday/10 August, 2021
Bahrain’s Undersecretary for International Relations at the Foreign Ministry, Sheikh Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, criticized on Monday the West and United States’ efforts to return to the nuclear deal with Iran. Speaking from Israel, he said: “What did we achieve from the deal?” The official is on a four-day visit to Israel. Speaking to reporters, Khalifa said the 2015 pact between the world powers and Tehran has not yielded any positive results. He revealed that Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa had sent a message of congratulations to then Iranian president Rouhani the day the nuclear accord was signed. “However, two days later, we foiled a Iranian attempt to smuggle arms and explosives to Bahrain,” said Sheikh Abdulla. He stressed that Bahrain wants to see a stable, secure, prosperous and responsible Iran that acts as a responsible member of the international community. “But we haven’t,” he said, “What we see is continuous interference in domestic affairs in my country.” The Bahraini official had arrived in Tel Aviv on Sunday. He met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, and he attended a meeting of the Joint Coordination Committee between Bahrain and Israel. He revealed that preparations are underway to commemorate the signing of the Abraham Accords, with the participation of all signatory countries, Bahrain, the UAE, the US and Israel. “The event will be held on September 15,” he added. Official diplomatic relations between Israel and Bahrain were announced on September 11, 2020. The Bahraini official also revealed that Lapid is expected to visit Manama in the near future and that direct flights between Manama and Tel Aviv should begin soon.

Israeli Troops Shoot, Arrest Suspected Palestinian Attacker
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
The Israeli military said soldiers shot and wounded a Palestinian woman after she attacked them with a knife in the occupied West Bank late on Monday. The woman was hospitalized after being shot in her "lower body" near the northern West Bank city of Nablus, the military said in a statement early Tuesday. A military spokesman said he was not aware of her current condition. No Israeli soldiers were wounded in the incident. Palestinians have carried out dozens of car-ramming, shooting and stabbing attacks against Israeli soldiers and civilians in recent years, mostly in the occupied West Bank. The Palestinians and Israeli human rights groups say soldiers often use excessive force, reported The Associated Press. Israeli troops opened fire on a car in the southern West Bank town of Beit Ummar last month, killing 12-year-old Mohammed al-Alami as he and his family were driving to the store to get snacks. The killing set off two days of protests in which another Palestinian was killed during clashes with Israeli troops. Israel says the family ignored orders from the troops to stop and that the soldiers only fired at the vehicle's tires. The vehicle was riddled with bullets, and the family said it was given no warning.
Another two Palestinians were shot and killed in recent weeks near the northern West Bank town of Beita, where stone-throwing protesters have repeatedly clashed with Israeli troops over a nearby settlement outpost established in May. Israeli troops also shot and killed a 17-year-old Palestinian during clashes in the West Bank village of Nebi Saleh, which has seen waves of protests over the years against a nearby settlement. Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 war and has established dozens of settlements where nearly 500,000 settlers reside. The Palestinians want the West Bank to form the main part of their future state and view the settlements as a major obstacle to resolving the conflict.

Israeli National Security Adviser Meets with Egyptian Counterpart
Tel Aviv, London /Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
Israel’s new national security adviser, Eyal Hulata, along with his predecessor Meir Ben-Shabbat met on Sunday in Cairo with Egypt’s head of intelligence Abbas Kamel. The discussed the situation in the Gaza Strip and negotiations aimed at stabilizing the ceasefire, reported Israel’s Walla. The meeting also tackled the prisoner exchange process with Hamas and the arrangement of operations at the Rafah border crossing. The brief visit took place a month and a half after Kamel visited Israel to consolidate the ceasefire with Gaza Strip. Back then, Kamel convened with then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ben-Shabbat. He also visited Ramallah and met with the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Hulata, 45-year-old, was a former senior Mossad official and was appointed by Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. He will officially assume his post on August 15.

Burhan, High-level Sudanese Delegation, to Visit Turkey at End of Month
Khartoum - Ahmed Younis/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
Chairman of the Sovereignty Council in Sudan, Abdel Fattah Burhan is scheduled to pay an official visit to Turkey at the end of the month at the invitation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Heading a high-level delegation, his talks will cover the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis, as well as joint and bilateral relations. Dubai-based Asharq television said Burhan will be accompanied by the ministers of finance, defense, agriculture, health and higher education. “The Burhan-Erdogan talks will cover joint relations between both countries, in addition to the GERD crisis between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia,” it reported. On Sunday, Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok was briefed on the arrangements for the visit, his office announced. It did not specify the date of the trip. Hamdok reviewed agreements signed between Sudan and Turkey. Deputy Chairman of the Sovereignty Council, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, “Hemedti”, had visited Turkey in May. He was accompanied by a delegation that included the ministers of agriculture, energy, livestock, transport and urban development. Hemedti had praised the historic relations with Turkey and said he was looking forward to developing them further.
Upon his return to Sudan, he declared that an understanding had been reached to update all previous agreements. He did not elaborate. Ankara and Khartoum had developed their ties under the regime of ousted president Omar al-Bashir. After his removal, ties grew strained due to relations between Islamists in Sudan and Turkey. Tensions were further stoked when Ankara hosted several Sudanese Islamist officials, who had fled Khartoum following the fall of the Bashir regime. Hemedti appeared to have eased the tensions when he made his surprise visit.

Egypt Strengthens Water Management Cooperation with Iraq
Cairo/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
Egypt’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Dr. Mohamed Abdel Aty, underlined the need to achieve maximum levels of cooperation and coordination between his country and Iraq, for the sake of sustainable development and optimal management of water resources. During a meeting on Monday with the Egyptian delegation that visited Iraq earlier this month, he reviewed the outcome of the talks and the means to enhance cooperation between the two countries in the field of water resources management. “The visit of a high-level Egyptian delegation to Iraq is one of the results of the first meeting of the Egyptian-Iraqi Joint Technical Steering Committee in the field of water resources and irrigation on June 6, which ended with an agreement to form a working group of Egyptian technicians to visit Iraq,” the minister said. The delegation included experts in irrigation development, research, rainwater harvesting and forecasting systems. He added that the visit aimed to discuss opportunities to enhance cooperation in the field of water management between the two brotherly countries, and to agree on a joint work program. An official statement by Cairo said Iraqi official will visit to Egypt to learn more about Egypt’s successful experiences in canal rehabilitation, modern irrigation, irrigation development, agricultural drainage water reuse and flood forecasting. The two sides also agreed that Egypt provide a number of training courses for Iraqi specialists in the areas of construction and maintenance of rainwater harvesting dams and rational management of groundwater.

Egypt Stages Tactical Army Training in Sinai
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
Egypt’s Second Field Army staged the main phase of the “Badawi 2021” tactical project on Monday, which included a military drill using live ammunition. The exercise is part of the country’s annual combat training program. Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Armed Forces Mohamed Farid attended the training.
The drill demonstrated the Second Field Army’s high combat readiness, as well as its cooperation and technical skills to carry out planned and emergency tasks during different battle stages, said an official statement. Moreover, the war game also showed the troops’ ability to use modern controls, various weapons and equipment and displayed their ability to discover and identify field goals swiftly. According to the statement, Farid conveyed to the soldiers the greetings of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Minister of Defense Mohamed Zaki. Farid acknowledged and praised the sacrifices of Egyptian soldiers in defending their homeland. He hailed the outstanding performance of the units participating in the exercise, stressing that the Armed forces’ General Command is keen on reaching the highest levels of efficiency and high combat readiness. Farid also paid tribute to the forces that played a prominent role in eliminating terrorists in some operations in the northern Sinai Peninsula. In other news, an official statement affirmed that Egyptian and UAE air forces are continuing the activities of their joint training, Zayed-3. Zayed-3 kicked off last week in the UAE shortly after the arrival of the Egyptian forces at Al Dhafra Air Base. During the past week, the joint forces carried out a number of training operations to enhance the ability to operate joint air missions. Several commanders and officials from both countries attended the training, which included carrying out joint flights by fighters.

Algeria to Inoculate 60% of People in Provinces Hit Hardest by Covid
Algiers/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
Algeria hopes to inoculate 60 percent of residents against COVID-19 in the most affected and populous provinces, according to a presidential statement on Sunday. “President Abdelmadjid Tebboune gave instructions to speed up the pace of vaccination, especially in the most affected provinces to achieve herd immunity,” said a statement after a cabinet meeting. Authorities are hoping to vaccinate 60 percent of the targeted provinces, which include the capital, Algiers, in addition to Oran, Setif and Constantine. They boast some 5.5 million out of Algeria’s population of 44 million. Over 4 million people have already received the vaccine, but less than a million have received two doses. Authorities have picked up the pace of inoculation in the past two weeks, with jabs being administered to 200,000 people per day. President of the National Agency for Health Security, Prof. Kamel Senhadji said authorities need to vaccinate 400,000 people per day to reach 50 percent herd immunity by fall. Tebboune said Sunday that the Algeria will soon begin producing the Chinese Sinopharm vaccine, either in September or October. The production of the Russian Sputnik shot will likely be delayed to the end of the year. He also ordered a wage hike for doctors and nurses, effective as soon as possible. He ordered raising the production of oxygen from 360,000 to 470,000 liters and the import of 100,000 liters every two days to address sharp shortages that have been reported in the past three weeks.

Syria's Assad Approves New Cabinet
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad issued a decree on Tuesday approving a new cabinet headed by Hussein Arnous, following a May election that secured Assad's grip on power in the war-torn country. The new 29-minister government, announced less than two weeks since Assad tasked Arnous with forming it, is little changed from its predecessor. Those at the head of the key defense, foreign affairs, interior and finance ministries remained unchanged. But new names were appointed to lead the ministries of information, social affairs and domestic trade and consumer protection.
The reshuffle, weeks after Assad took the oath of office for a fourth seven-year term, is required by the Syrian constitution which stipulates that a cabinet's term ends with that of the president. On Tuesday, the presidency announced a final list of names on its social media channels. The new cabinet is the second to be headed by Arnous, who was first appointed by Assad last summer. It will have to deal with a spiraling economic crisis caused by a decade-long conflict and compounded by a spate of Western sanctions and a financial crunch in neighboring Lebanon. Spiraling poverty now affects 80 percent of the population, and the Syrian pound has plummeted to unprecedented lows against the dollar on the black market. Aggravated fuel shortages have extended chronic power cuts to more than twenty hours a day in some areas. To shore up diminishing reserves, the previous government repeatedly raised prices of basic items such as fuel, bread, rice and sugar.

‘Don’t Come Back, We Want to Leave,’ Syrians Advise Returning Refugees
Damascus, Beirut, London/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
“Don’t come back, we want to leave,” is the advice Syrians residing in their home country offer to refugees abroad. A report by the Syrian Association for Citizens’ Dignity (SACD) found that more and more people were seeking to leave regions held by the regime. The 83-page report includes the results of 533 interviews held with Syrians residing in those regions. “A large number of Syrians feel unsafe, with the perception of safety heavily tied to the area’s perceived threat to the regime,” said the report. “People forced to return to regime control from displacement or through ‘reconciliation’ do not feel safe, with significantly higher levels of fear in their daily lives.”“Their feeling of insecurity is being informed by events that were directly witnessed or experienced. Some 50% of people in the [president Bashar] Assad-controlled areas don’t feel safe, including those who never left; 67% of returnees from outside Syria don’t feel safe, and those in the reconciliation areas fear worst with 94% saying they don’t feel safe. Most cite the security authorities’ grip and fear of rampant insecurity and crime as their reasons for feeling safe.”“That said, there are no safe areas, with some of the more practical measures of safety showing that security is poor everywhere, because it’s due to security policies by the same authority,” noted the report. “The reconciliation areas present the worse deterioration in the sense of insecurity amongst survey respondents,” it found. “While 74 percent of participants in the SACD’s 2019 survey reported not feeling safe in their areas, this figure increased to 94 percent in the 2020 survey.” “Surprisingly, the same trend was observed in areas controlled by the regime since 2011, where perceptions of insecurity jumped from 39 percent in 2019 to 51 percent in 2020. These numbers clearly indicate that the reconciliation areas have failed to provide security to citizens, and that the regime’s security policies and general practices are weakening the sense of security amongst Syrians,” it added. “The intention to leave regime-controlled areas specifically in reconciliation areas and areas controlled since 2011 has noticeably increased. In the case of reconciliation areas, 48 percent of survey participants in 2019 had the intention of leaving regime-controlled areas, while the percentage increased to 68 percent in 2020. In areas controlled by the regime since 2011, the percentage went up from 23 percent in 2019 to 47 percent in 2020.” “These numbers are in line with those detailed in a March 2021 Norwegian Refugee Council report, which predicted that Syria will experience the displacement of another 6 million refugees in the next decade if the conflict continues.”SACD member Houda Atassi said the establishment of a secure environment for all Syrians should be a main issue in the political process. SACD trustee Fadi Nezhat said regime and Russian guarantees mean nothing on the ground, as arrest campaigns and forced disappearances of people are still rampant.

Pedersen Turns Attention to Syria’s Daraa amid Local Calls for ‘Decentralization’
Daraa – Riad al-Zein/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen on Monday met with several representatives from Syria’s southwestern Daraa governorate to discuss the latest field developments, especially the regime’s 4th Armored Division's siege to the provincial capital, also called Daraa. For over a month now, the Division has blockaded Daraaa, forcing untold suffering and extremely dire living conditions upon the city. Civilians are demanding end to the siege. Daraa’s only bakery has been put out of service after its flour supplies ran out. Locals are suffering from a severe shortage in medical supplies, water and electricity.
Regime forces have also barred the entry of essential goods to Daraa. Despite Russia, a vital ally of the Syrian regime, promising local Hauran committees that the military escalation against Daraa will end and peaceful solutions will prevail, no final agreement has been made. Many activists on social media circulated a statement allegedly released by a collective of Hauran Clans in Daraa calling for decentralization in the southern governorate. “The party that rules in this world cannot run it; administrative issues must be left to residents and their local representatives,” the statement read, adding that experience goes to show that the people of Daraa are better at achieving development and justice for themselves. The statement urged a “peaceful transfer of power in Syria according to international resolutions, especially UN Security Council resolution 2254.”It reiterated that people in Daraa seek “making Syria for all Syrians” and transforming it into a civil and democratic state where everyone exercises their freedoms under international human rights laws.

Turkey Speaks of Deal with Russia on Securing Electricity, Water in Northeast Syria
Idlib – Firas Karam/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
Russian and Turkish military officials have agreed to provide electricity to the parts of northeastern Syria that are run by Ankara-backed militant factions and water to Kurdish-run areas in the region, according to media reports. Turkey’s Anadolu Agency reported on the deal securing power to 200,000 civilians living in areas where Turkey had staged Operation Peace Spring against Kurdish forces in the Ras al-Ain region. Meanwhile, potable water will be provided to those living in areas run by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the Hasakeh province.In other words, the understanding reached between the Russian and the Turkish forces reported by Anadolu Agency would see exchanging the provision of the Turkish-occupied Sere Kaniye region with electricity in return for the reoperation of the Alouk water station. An official in the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) denied reaching a final agreement with Turkish forces regarding the water station, accusing the latter of “breaking the terms of understanding.” “The Turkish forces have not complied with the terms since the water has not reached Hasakeh city yet,” co-chair of the Energy Office in the Jazira region Ziyad Rustem told the North Press Agency. Last month, Rustem revealed the existence of indirect negotiations with Turkey under Russian auspices to restart the Alouk station in the countryside of Ras al-Ain. The AANES has demanded the operation of 20 wells and four pumps in the station to ensure the arrival of water to Hasakeh and its countryside, Rustem added. “The water has not reached Hasakeh because the Turkish forces operate two pumps only out of five that have been agreed upon, though the AANES fulfilled all the demands of the understanding,” Rustem stated. “The Turkish forces ask for 25 megawatts of electricity from Tishreen Dam six hours a day, and eight megawatts from Derbasiya station 24 hours a day,” Rustem pointed out. Turkish forces and their affiliated armed factions have shut the Alouk station 15 times since their invasion and occupation of Ras al-Ain in October 2019. The station is the primary source of drinking water for nearly one million people in the towns of Tel Tamr, Hasakeh, Shaddadi, Hol and rural areas and camps affiliated with these towns. Rustem expressed his skepticism regarding the Turkish claims and deemed the operation of Alouk station as “necessary and cannot be disregarded.”

Iraq FM in Tehran Talks ahead of Mooted Baghdad Summit
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein met his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in Tehran Tuesday, Iranian media reported, as Baghdad prepares to host a regional summit later this month. The two men discussed "bilateral ties and latest regional and international developments," the ISNA news agency said. "It is expected, based on some speculation, that Iraq's foreign minister will present an invitation to Tehran authorities for Iran to join an international summit in Baghdad," it added. Iran's official news agency IRNA gave no details of the agenda for Zarif's talks with Hussein. Baghdad has said that French President Emmanuel Macron will attend the planned summit, and that Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Arabia's King Salman have also been invited. No date for the meeting has yet been announced.Iraq is seeking to establish itself as a mediator between Arab countries and Iran.
Baghdad has been brokering talks between regional heavyweights Riyadh and Tehran since April on mending ties severed in 2016. Iran's new President Ebrahim Raisi, who took office last week, has said he sees "no obstacles" to restoring ties with the Gulf kingdom, and has made improving relations with regional countries one of his administration's priorities.

Baghdad faces uncertainties as it announces a regional conference
The Arab Weekly/August 10/2021
BAGHDAD--As Iraq prepares to bring together the country’s neighbours and some of its international partners in a regional conference, which it plans to host at the end of this month, there are questions about the ability of Iraqi leaders to set an independent diplomatic course for their nation amid domestic and outside pressures. The idea of ​​holding this big regional event reflects the high diplomatic ambitions coveted by Iraq’s President Barham Salih and Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. But analysts say Kadhimi and Salih seem detached from the reality of the Iraqi state and oblivious to the obstacles their country faces in establishing a course of action that is independent from the will of external powers. Although Iraq started already to send invitations to the countries of the region to attend the conference, there have been some doubts expressed about Baghdad’s actual ability to bring together countries with conflicting agendas. Some of these countries, such as Turkey and Iran, are involved in an unbridled competition for influence in Iraq. Others are deeply at odds with some of the invitees. This is the case of Saudi Arabia and Iran as well as that of Syria with much of the international community. Iraq’s foreign ministry said Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman have been invited, although an exact date has not been announced. Baghdad has not said whether newly inaugurated President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran, the arch-enemy of Saudi Arabia and the United States, would attend.
Macron told Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in a phone call that he planned to visit Iraq to attend the conference, Kadhimi’s office said.
Macron “praised Iraqi diplomacy as balanced” during Monday’s call, Kadhimi’s office said. It would be Macron’s second visit to the country in less than a year. Questions also concern the ability of Iraq to make sure the decisions of the conference can be implemented. The upcoming conference is not without reminding observers of the International Conference for the Reconstruction of Iraq, which was hosted by Kuwait in early 2018, and made great promises but did not have much impact on the conditions of Iraqis. Many countries are also seen to be reluctant to enter into a partnership with a country where militias are interfering with the state’s political, economic and security decision-making process. Analysts see the upcoming conference as another reminder of the predicament of the Iraqi leadership as it tries to persuade foreign countries to enter into full economic and investment partnerships with Iraq, without taking into account that to bring foreign investors to their country Iraqi leaders need to put their house in order, first, and ensure adequate security and political conditions for investors to come in. Any partnerships are likely to be challenged by Iran’s proxies in Iraq as Tehran relentlessly attempts to steer decisions in Baghdad according to its interests even if that means continued instability and endless tensions. It is expected that the agenda of the Iraq Regional Neighbourhood Conference will include a discussion of the political and security challenges facing the countries of the region. Among the ambitions of Salih and Kadhimi’s diplomacy is to bring closer the two major rivals, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and to bridge their strategic disagreements. Iraq has already hosted exploratory talks between the two countries. Although the Saudi-Iranian dialogue held in Baghdad has not achieved much progress, it was considered by some as a real breakthrough for Iraqi diplomacy. Others, however, downplayed the role of Iraqi diplomacy saying it did not go beyond the transmission of messages to the two parties. Baghdad also hosted a tripartite Iraqi-Egyptian-Jordanian summit last June, which was attended by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Jordanian King Abdullah II. The summit discussed the issue of integrating the land transportation and electricity grids of Iraq, Egypt and Jordan, boosting agricultural cooperation, and establishing cooperation with Egypt in the upgrading of Iraqi factories.However, the tripartite summit’s goals seemed to observers beyond the capabilities of the three countries considering the political, financial and security hurdles at hand. Ramzy Mardini, an associate at the Pearson Institute at the University of Chicago, said Baghdad’s planned regional meeting is an “important step in symbolism and reflects the cooperative ties of the (Iraqi) prime minister to regional leaders”. But its signficance “should not be overstated”.

US Announces $165 Million Humanitarian Aid to Yemen
Washington - Hiba al-Qudsi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 August, 2021
The United States on Monday announced an additional $165 million in humanitarian aid for Yemen, as the war-ravaged country continues to face what the UN calls the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. “The US is announcing today $165 million in additional humanitarian assistance for Yemen,” said Tim Lenderking, US special envoy for Yemen. “We believe that taking immediate steps to mitigate the humanitarian crisis and save lives can contribute to progress on the peace process,” he told a virtual press conference. Lenderking said that the aid will be provided through the USAID, which has resumed operations regions held by the Iran-backed Houthi militias that had previously hindered the agency’s operations. “We’re supporting efforts to prevent famine, which has again become a very real threat,” he continued. Five million Yemenis are on the brink of famine, and some 50,000 people live in famine-like conditions -- the first time such critical levels of hunger have been reached in two years, according to the UN World Food Program. The UN has warned that famine could become part of Yemen’s “reality” this year. A donor conference earlier this year raised $1.7 billion in aid for the country -- just half its target. Lenderking has paid several visits to the region since his appointment earlier this year. He is working closely with the UN envoy to reach a political solution to the conflict. UN reports have said that the violence witnessed in Yemen by the Houthis has cost the lives of at least 233,000 people, left millions on the brink of famine and led to a massive humanitarian crisis. At least 400,000 Yemeni children under 5 could die of starvation this year without urgent intervention amid soaring rates of severe malnutrition, several UN agencies warned. The agencies projected a 22 percent increase in severe acute malnutrition among children under 5 in Yemen, compared to 2020. “Obviously, the US can’t do this alone so other donors, particularly regional donors, must step up their contributions,” said Lenderking. “I think that over time and as the military situation remains stalemated, that the Houthis will be more willing to negotiate,” he added. In March, Saudi Arabia proposed a nationwide ceasefire, but the Houthis turned down the suggestion and demanded instead ending the blockade on the country’s ports and Sanaa International Airport.

Canada strongly condemns China’s sentence of death imposed on a Canadian citizen
August 10, 2021 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Marc Garneau, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement:
“Canada strongly condemns China’s decision to uphold the death penalty sentence against Robert Schellenberg.
“We have repeatedly expressed to China our firm opposition to this cruel and inhumane punishment and will continue to engage with Chinese officials at the highest levels to grant clemency to Mr. Schellenberg.
“We oppose the death penalty in all cases, and condemn the arbitrary nature of Mr. Schellenberg’s sentence.
“We thank Australia, France, Germany and the United States, whose representatives were present at the court along with Canadian officials.
“Global Affairs Canada will continue to provide consular services to Mr. Schellenberg and his family. Due to provisions of the Privacy Act, no further information can be released.”

The Road To Damascus Is Paved With Good Intentions
David Adesnik/War on the Rocks/August 10/2021
Excerpt
Carsten Wieland, Syria and the Neutrality Trap: The Dilemmas of Delivering Humanitarian Aid through Violent Regimes (Bloomsbury, 2021)
Bashar al Assad relied on Russian warplanes to ensure his survival on the battlefield. But his regime also relied on U.N. humanitarian aid to avoid a complete financial collapse. While the United States and the European Union maintain sanctions on Damascus, they also donate billions each year to fund the United Nations’ humanitarian operations, despite knowing that much of it will be expropriated to subsidize the regime. This unusual arrangement has persisted for a decade, yet neither Washington nor Brussels has made more than a token effort to protect U.N. aid from Assad’s depredations.
Rather than a scandal, this state of affairs is an open secret. In 2013, after returning from Damascus, a senior U.N. official published a detailed account of the many ways the Assad regime was co-opting humanitarian efforts. He reported, “In government-controlled parts of Syria, what, where and to whom to distribute aid, and even staff recruitment, have to be negotiated and are sometimes dictated.” Periodically, journalists and human rights advocates have treated the situation as a cause for outrage. In 2016, the Guardian reported that the United Nations spent tens of millions of dollars per year to procure goods and services from companies under the regime’s control. This included $9.3 million dollars to house U.N. staff at the Four Seasons Damascus, which is owned in part by the E.U.-sanctioned Syrian Ministry of Tourism.
Lengthy reports that document the diversion of U.N. aid have appeared courtesy of Physicians for Human Rights, The Syria Campaign, Chatham House, Human Rights Watch, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Their collective advice is that the time has come for the United Nations to stand firm when negotiating the conditions of aid delivery with Damascus. The reports also advise Western donors to set clear expectations for U.N. reform and carry out meaningful oversight of the operations they fund. If this advice has had an impact, it is barely perceptible. So far, neither the United Nations nor its donors appear to consider the issue a priority.
*David Adesnik is a senior fellow and director of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. His research focuses on human rights, humanitarian aid, sanctions, and illicit finance in Syria. For two years, he served as deputy director for Joint Data Support at the U.S. Department of Defense, where he focused on the modeling and simulation of irregular warfare and counterinsurgency. Follow him on Twitter @adesnik. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Fifth northern Afghan capital falls to the Taliban
Bill Roggio/FDD's Long War Journal/August 10/2021
The Taliban took control of another capital in the strategic Afghan north today as Afghan security forces and government officials fled Aybak in Samangan province. Aybak is the fifth northern capital to fall to the Taliban in three days, and and the sixth in four days.
The Taliban is making sweeping gains in the north, where prominent Afghan politicians, officials and power brokers who make up the backbone of the Afghan government and security forces are based. On Aug. 8, the Taliban overran the capitals of Kunduz, Sar-i-Pul, and Takhar (Taloqan). On Aug. 7, the Taliban seized control of Shibirghan, the capital of Jawzjan province. On Aug. 6, Zaranj, the capital of Nimroz province, was the first provincial center to wilt under Taliban control.
The latest, the fall of Aybak, was confirmed by Samangan’s deputy governor, who told AFP on Monday that the Taliban “are in full control” of the city. Afghan security forces and government officials abandoned Aybak “without a fight” as the Taliban advanced on the city, Afghan journalist Bilal Sarwary reported.
//twitter.com/bsarwary/status/1424684010517696513
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid tweeted that the governor’s office, the police and National Directorate of Security headquarters “were cleared” of Afghan forces and “were completely under the control of the mujahideen.”
The Taliban positioned itself to assault these six northern provinces by patiently executing its rural insurgency strategy, which it carefully planned more than a decade ago. While the U.S., NATO, and Afghan security forces focused on protecting urban populations, the Taliban built its strength in the rural areas, took control of remote districts, and used those bases to spread its influence. U.S. generals dismissed the Taliban’s rural insurgency, to their own detriment.
As the Taliban advances, the Afghan government has attempted to defend all of the country, and in doing so have over extended the security forces – as the regular army, police, and militias have been largely ineffective in holding off the Taliban. Many districts and several provincial capitals have been abandoned without a fight. Thousands of Afghan soldiers and policemen have surrendered to the Taliban.
The military has over-relied on the the Afghan Air Force, Commandos and special forces to stave off the Taliban. These elite Afghan forces, which are limited in numbers, are being ground down. In the case of the Commandos, they are being thrown into the fight in cities such as Lashkar Gah in Helmand and Kandahar City, where government control is limited to neighborhoods and city blocks. Also, the Afghan Air Force is expending air frames and munitions launching strikes inside these southern cities, which likely will fall as they are isolated and the Taliban is determined to take them.
*Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

U.S. Envoy in Doha to Press Taliban for End to Offensive
Agence France Presse/August 10/2021
The U.S. negotiator on Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, "will press the Taliban to stop their military offensive" at talks in Doha this week, the State Department said Monday after the insurgents seized a series of provincial capitals. "Ambassador Khalilzad will be in Doha to help formulate a joint international response to the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan," the department added in a statement. Fighting in Afghanistan's long-running conflict has escalated dramatically since May, when the U.S.-led military coalition began the final stage of a withdrawal set to be completed before the end of the month. "The increased tempo of Taliban military engagement, resulting civilian causalities in armed conflict between the sides, and alleged human rights atrocities are of grave concern," the U.S. statement said. "A negotiated peace is the only path to ending the war."The Taliban seized a sixth Afghan provincial capital on Monday following a weekend blitz that saw urban centers fall in quick succession and the government struggle to keep the militants at bay. The insurgents say they are moving in on Mazar-i-Sharif -- the largest city in the north and a linchpin for the government's control of the region.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials published on August 10-11/2021
Turkey’s Anti-Kurdish Measures Violate Religious Freedom
Aykan Erdemir/Sude Akgundogdu/Providence/August 10/2021
Turkey has a long history of discrimination against its Kurdish citizens as well as restrictions against using the Kurdish language. While this systematic exclusion has drawn international attention, its detrimental effects on the religious freedoms of Kurdish Muslims and Christians remain little noticed. Thus, it is time for the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) and the global religious freedom advocacy community to highlight the egregious religious freedom violations that result from restrictions on using the Kurdish language as part of religious services.
Turkish police on July 3 rounded up 28 Muslim clerics, arresting nine, for preaching sermons in Kurdish. During the questioning of the imams, authorities insisted that the mere use of Kurdish words resonated with the “organizational discourse” of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a terrorist-designated group that has led an insurgency against Turkey for four decades. One of the detained imams said that officers showed photos of prayers in mosques as evidence of their crimes.
These spurious arrests come at a time when hate crimes targeting Turkey’s Kurdish community are climbing. In July alone, there were at least four reported violent attacks targeting Kurds. Echoing the Turkish authorities’ prejudice against the Kurdish language, a racist mob in the western province of Afyon assaulted a group of Kurdish seasonal workers for speaking Kurdish, accusing them of being PKK members due to the use of their language.
Hostility toward the use of Kurdish in religious spaces is not a new trend. In Turkey, these spaces are strictly controlled by the Directorate of Religious Affairs (Diyanet), a governmental agency that delivers, and thereby controls, religious services for Muslims through the nearly 130,000 clerics it employs. The enduring criminalization of the Kurdish language, most recently through its vilification as PKK propaganda, has prevented Turkey’s Kurdish-speakers not only from receiving government services on an equal footing but also from accessing and performing religious services as they see fit. The Diyanet has refused to provide or allow for Kurdish-language sermons, with the exception of a few symbolic cases, and Turkish authorities have regularly cracked down on imams who incorporate Kurdish into their religious services, leading to detentions, jail time, and the banishment of Kurdish imams from their posts.
In 2008, the Diyanet rejected an appeal by a Kurdish congregation requesting the delivery of its sermons in Kurdish. The religious agency cited the third article of the Turkish Constitution, which decrees Turkish as the language of the state, as grounds for its decision, ruling that the Diyanet’s clerics may only use the official language of the state. As a result, Turkish sermons prescribed by the agency continue to remain largely incomprehensible for the country’s monolingual Kurdish speakers.
The Diyanet’s rejection of Kurdish worship inspired a flurry of protests in 2011 led by the now-shuttered pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP). The party organized “civilian Friday prayers” in Kurdish-majority provinces, where voluntary imams led prayers and delivered public sermons in Kurdish. Many Kurds applauded the movement. One citizen in Turkey’s southeastern Diyarbakir said, “The government’s imam preaches in Turkish. We understand Kurdish better.”
Some of these services drew up to 5,000 participants, but their popularity did not lead to an easing of state restrictions on religious freedom. In May 2018, Turkish police detained a voluntary imam in a mosque in Diyarbakir’s Cizre sub-province for delivering Friday sermons in Kurdish. Authorities reportedly questioned the imam about whether he had disseminated anti-government messaging through his Kurdish sermons. Soon after the imam’s release, the Diyanet’s provincial officials not only barred the imam from giving sermons but also banished him from the mosque.
A year later, a Diyarbakir court slapped a six-year prison sentence on a “civilian imam,” a title that refers to imams who lead non-state-sanctioned Friday prayers in Kurdish. The indictment accused the imam of membership in a terrorist organization. In a similar case in September 2020, an 80-year-old Kurdish individual passed away in prison while serving a seven-year sentence for holding a memorial service in Kurdish.
Even the pandemic provided no respite for imams delivering Kurdish-language services. Last August, gendarmerie officers in Diyarbakir’s Sur sub-province reportedly interrupted a memorial service being delivered in Kurdish. The officers pressed the imam on whether he was a member of the PKK due to his use of Kurdish.
Christian Kurds suffer the same indignities. An overwhelming majority of Kurds in Turkey are Muslim, but there are Kurdish individuals among the estimated 5,000 Turkish citizens who have converted to Protestantism over the years. Turkey’s Christian Kurds found themselves in the midst of an international controversy when a farcical indictment against North Carolina Pastor Andrew Craig Brunson—unjustly imprisoned in Turkey for two years on spurious terrorism, coup plotting, and espionage charges. The state criminalized their faith and described their use of the Kurdish language as evidence of terrorism. An anonymous witness in the Brunson case testified that some members of Brunson’s congregation would worship in Kurdish as evidence of his claim that the pastor sought to establish a Christian Kurdish state by converting the PKK to Christianity. At the time, Turkey’s semi-official news agency featured this ludicrous claim prominently as part of its systematic smear campaign against Brunson.
The indictment also pointed to Brunson’s alleged publishing of Kurdish Bibles to prove his involvement with the PKK. Another strange accusation he faced was the claim that a PKK member, whom Brunson had regularly invited to speak at church services, would cut a cake each week “with a PKK flag with a cross on [it]”—a slander that made headlines even in mainstream Turkish newspapers.
Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city and top tourist destination, is home to over three million Kurds and host to over 200,000 Kurdish-speaking guests every year. But it fails to offer services in Kurdish, although the municipality offers informational services in 20 other languages. The exclusion of Kurds extends to the private sector. Two of Turkey’s top three cell service providers do not offer customer assistance in Kurdish, despite the country being home to some 18 million Kurds.
The Turkish government’s animosity toward the Kurdish language harkens back to the extreme anti-Kurdish measures of the past. Between 1983 and 1991, it was illegal to speak Kurdish in public. It was not until 2002 that broadcasting in Kurdish was possible and not until 2003 that parents could give their children Kurdish names. Despite the lifting of these discriminatory regulations, an antipathy toward Kurdish and a bigoted misconstruction of it as the language of the PKK persist to this day.
Given Turkey’s alarming track record concerning its minority faith communities and increasingly hostile approach to the Kurdish issue, securing religious freedom for Turkey’s Kurds appears out of reach. If a court bid to shutter the country’s second-largest opposition party, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), materializes, Kurds would lose the only party that consistently advocates for their rights, including their religious freedoms.
The annual reports of USCIRF have presented detailed assessments of restrictions on freedom of religion or belief in Turkey, and the Commission has recommended the US government include Turkey on the State Department’s “Special Watch List” for “engaging in or tolerating severe violations of religious freedom.” But there has not been a focus on the detrimental role of Kurdish-language restrictions and anti-Kurdish prejudice on Kurdish Muslims and Christians.
USCIRF should organize a fact-finding mission to Turkey to study this pressing problem, and US diplomats who monitor religious freedom issues in Turkey should document such violations in greater detail. As Biden administration officials interact with Ankara, they should remind their Turkish counterparts that destigmatizing the Kurdish language is just as important for respecting the religious freedoms of Turkey’s Kurds as it is for recognizing their broader rights and freedoms.
*Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish parliament and senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). He is the rotating co-chair of the Anti-Defamation League’s Task Force on Middle East Minorities and a steering committee member of the International Panel of Parliamentarians for Freedom of Religion or Belief (IPPFoRB). Follow him on Twitter @aykan_erdemir.
*Sude Akgundogdu, a student at Williams College, is an intern at the Turkey Program of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

America, Iran and the Costly Dance
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 10/2021
The countries bordering Afghanistan are preparing to coexist with a devastating civil war on its territory after the completion of the withdrawal of US forces, or with Afghanistan residing in the grip of the Taliban movement.
Nothing suggests that Kabul will be immune to the movement. President Joe Biden’s decision to send strategic bombers to disrupt the Taliban’s attacks on some provincial capitals will only delay the date of their collapse.
The tension experienced by the US-trained regime reflects its fear of letting things slip out of its control. The panic of translators trying to grasp the departing American planes indicates that the Taliban domination can be delayed for some time, but cannot be avoided.
Iran is lucky. The Taliban was in control of Afghanistan, and skirmishes occurred on the border between the two countries. Iran had no important cards. Any expansion of the clashes would have led to a Sunni-Shiite conflict that could have reached Pakistan. The 9/11 attacks were a gift to Tehran. The American army advanced and uprooted the anti-Tehran regime in Kabul. America went as far as granting Iran the gift of a lifetime. The US army moved to oust Saddam Hussein’s regime through a devastating war.
Despite the two gifts, Iran continued its policy aimed at expelling America, especially from the maps on which Tehran dreams of deploying and control. Here I recalled what late Iraqi President Jalal Talabani once told me.
He said: “Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki once told me in this house (Talabani’s residence): ‘Ask your friend, the American ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad - who was an ambassador in Baghdad at that time - what do the Americans want from us? We supported the liberation of Iraq from Saddam, the Governing Council and the election of the president of the republic, and we supported this new situation established by the Americans in Iraq. There is nothing the Americans did that we did not support. So ask your friend what do they want from us?’ I conveyed these words to Khalilzad, and he replied: ‘We want stability and security in Iraq.’”
Talabani added: “We tried to bring Khalilzad and Mottaki together, but we did not succeed. We had reached an agreement from both sides, then Condoleezza Rice went to Congress and hinted at this meeting, which was supposed to take place secretly, so the Iranians withdrew.”
Tehran wanted to avoid a direct clash with the American forces deployed near its borders with Iraq and Afghanistan. It was telling Talabani that if America showed the necessary level of realism, the Iranian regime would be ready to negotiate with Washington over files ranging from Afghanistan to Lebanon.
Iraq was an arena of a highly complex experiment between Iran and the United States. Former Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari recounted that the Americans spoke with Iranian officials in Geneva on a number of occasions before the war about practical technical issues, airspace and border files. He confirmed that these meetings continued after Saddam’s fall. The Americans eventually cut off this relationship, “and when we asked them why, they said that they were after a number of wanted men from Al-Qaeda, who they knew were in Iran, and the latter has refused to turn them over.”
Iran was using two languages and two styles. While Mottaki was asking what the Americans wanted from us more than we did, Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Quds Force, was waging a war against the US presence in Iraq under many aliases.
In response to a question about whether Iran contributed to the killing of Americans in Iraq, Zebari said: “Of course, but contrary to reports, it did not support Al-Qaeda. Rather, it backed some special groups, within the Mahdi Army. For example, there was a special group that was being trained and ordered to carry out operations. Syria certainly contributed to the killing of Americans and the bombing of cars. Syria launched an open war against us that practically led to the deaths of tens of thousands of Iraqis.”
Iran was pretending to be ready to negotiate and was demanding that the United States pursue realistic policies, such as the “Great Satan” recognizing that it can be its biggest partner in the Middle East. But the other aspect of Iranian policy was based on seeking to undermine the American military presence and influence in both Iraq and Afghanistan. While such diplomatic statements were issued by Iran or its friends, Tehran was working on the ground inside maps by supporting organizations and forming others that chant slogans of “resistance” and “death to Israeli”
After two decades of tensions, maneuvering and strikes, it is no longer a secret that America is tired of its costly military interventions around the world. The real picture on the ground reveals that US policy lacked consistency and a clear vision, and fluctuated with the change of administrations and advisers.
The result is visible in several countries. Iran has a quasi-veto power over any decision taken by Iraqi authorities. It exercises this role through Iraqi proxies. Same applies to Lebanon. Iranian influence in Syria does not need any proof, since its militias helped save the regime. It is not possible to advance towards a ceasefire in Yemen without the approval of Tehran. Thus, President Ebrahim Raisi appears to be stronger in a number of countries than their declared presidents.
Has the US grown tired of the Iranian file and wants to revive the nuclear agreement under the pretext of dedicating itself to confronting the rise of China? Is the Biden administration preparing to present a new gift to Tehran, which, from time to time, boasts of its ability to ignite more than one front in the region and obstruct navigation in critical passages?
As the provincial capitals in Afghanistan are yielding to the Taliban, the people of the Middle East recall that long and costly dance between Iran and America, which witnessed quite a few gifts, blows and stabs. The American-Iranian dance was very expensive, especially for some Arab maps.

خالد ابو طعمة/معهد كايتستون: العرب يحتفلون بسقوط جماعة الإخوان المسلمين في تونس
Arabs Celebrate Downfall of Tunisia’s Islamists
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/August 10, 2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/101280/khaled-abu-toameh-gatestone-institute-arabs-celebrate-downfall-of-tunisias-islamists-%d8%ae%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af-%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%88-%d8%b7%d8%b9%d9%85%d8%a9-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%83%d8%a7%d9%8a/
Tunisia is the third Arab country after Egypt and Sudan to say that it is fed up with the rule of the Islamists. With the exception of Qatar, most of the Arab countries have long regarded the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups as a major threat to security, stability and peace.
The Palestinians… seem to be the only Arabs who continue to believe in the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates, particularly Hamas, the terrorist group that has been ruling the Gaza Strip since July 2007.
Sawsan Al-Sha’er, one of Bahrain’s most influential journalists and intellectuals, expressed relief over the ouster of the Islamists of Tunisia and said that this should serve as a reminder to all Arabs that Islamist parties – Shiite and Sunni alike – care about nothing else but reaching power.
“The Arabs have discovered that these parties do not have a … development program, or a future vision; the only project they have is to reach a position of decision-making and seize power. The religious parties do not recognize sovereign borders, the state’s constitution, laws, and regulations. In all the Arab countries in which these parties have reached decision-making positions, they bypassed all constitutional and political frameworks, and they do not see anything wrong with that….” — Sawsan Al-Sha’er, Al-Ain, August 1, 2021.
According to Al-Sha’er, the Islamists want to… make them subject to foreign powers, especially Iran.
“What happened in Tunisia is similar to what happened in Egypt in 2013, when the Egyptian people rose up against the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood and overthrew them after discovering their subversive project, confirming once again the failure of the Islamists in managing the affairs of the state…. it confirms that the Arabs can no longer tolerate this group and its policies.” — Amal Abdullah Al-Haddabi, Al-Ain, August 3, 2021.
Al-Haddabi pointed out that during the past decade, successive Tunisian governments that were dominated by the Islamists failed to score any achievements for the people.
Another reason the Tunisian Islamists failed, was because they “failed to believe in democracy in its true meaning, including freedom of the media, the independence of the judiciary and economic and social rights.” — Abdel Aziz Khamis Khamis, Saudi journalist, Sky News Arabia, August 2, 2021.
The jubilation in the Arab countries over the toppling of the Ennahdah Party sends a clear message to the rest of the world against embracing or appeasing the Islamists. Sadly, this is a message that continues to be ignored by the many Palestinians and leaders in the West who continue to support Hamas and other Iranian-backed Islamist groups that seek to eliminate Israel and keep the Palestinians mired in misery.
The removal of Tunisia’s Islamist Ennahda Party from power has been welcomed not only by Tunisians, but by many Arabs who have accused the Islamists, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood organization, of spreading chaos and instability in the Arab world. Pictured: Supporters of Tunisian President Kais Saied demonstrate in support of his removal of the Ennahda Party from power, near the parliament in Tunis, on July 26, 2021.
The removal of Tunisia’s Islamist Ennahda [Renaissance] Party from power has been welcomed not only by Tunisians, but by many Arabs who have accused the Islamists, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood organization, of spreading chaos and instability in the Arab world.
The Ennahda Party was inspired by the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and the ideology of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran and leader of the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
The crisis in Tunisia erupted on July 25 after President Kais Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and suspended the activities of the Assembly of the Representatives of the People, whose speaker, Rached Ghannouchi, is the leader of the Ennahda Party. The decisions of the president were made in response to a series of protests against the Ennahda Party, economic hardship and spike in COVID-19 cases in Tunisia.
Tunisia is the third Arab country after Egypt and Sudan to say that it is fed up with the rule of the Islamists. With the exception of Qatar, most of the Arab countries have long regarded the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups as a major threat to security, stability and peace.
The Palestinians, on the other hand, seem to be the only Arabs who continue to believe in the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates, particularly Hamas, the terrorist group that has been ruling the Gaza Strip since July 2007.
A majority of Palestinians voted for Hamas in the 2006 parliamentary election. Recent public opinion polls showed that many Palestinians continue to support Hamas despite its repressive and failed policies and measures in the Gaza Strip. The Palestinians, unfortunately, have not learned anything from the bad experience of the Egyptians and Tunisians with the Muslim Brotherhood.
By ridding themselves of the Islamists, the Egyptians, Tunisians and Sudanese were saying that they wanted to move on with their lives and secure a better future for their countries and their children. By sticking to Hamas, the Palestinians are saying that they have no intention of improving their living conditions by creating job opportunities and a strong economy.
“What happened in Tunisia was the inevitable result of years during which the Tunisian people remained under the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood,” commented Emirati writer Saif Al-Dareei. “This Muslim Brotherhood rule, represented by the Tunisian Ennahda Party and its leader Rashed Ghannouchi, tried to reap political gains on its own without considering the needs of the Tunisian people.”
Al-Dareei pointed out that the Tunisians, like the Egyptians, have “revolted against the same obsessive policies” of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose followers support chaos in the Arab world. “The era of the terrorist Muslim Brotherhood is over,” Al-Dareei wrote.
“There is a popular will to remove the Ennahda Party, which infiltrated power under a false cover of democracy, rights and the constitution, and was planning to remove the president and neutralize his powers.”
Al-Dareei called for a “united and strong Arab stand to support Tunisia, its president, and its people.” This support, he noted, “has already been demonstrated by many Arab countries, whether by not interfering in Tunisia’s affairs, or by supporting the Tunisian leadership to reform the conditions of Tunisians and their right to a decent and secure life.”
Prominent Saudi journalist and writer Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed stated that he was not surprised by the downfall of the Islamists in Tunisia. “They [the Islamists] were associated with chaos and assassinations once they were in government,” Al-Rashed wrote.
“The extraordinary measures the president took came to rescue the country before the collapse. In fact, what he is doing is saving the Tunisian regime, and Tunisia, the country, from the chaos that had begun.”
Al-Rashed said that what happened in Tunisia reflected the “battle of the Middle East” against the Muslim Brotherhood. Noting that Egypt and Sudan got rid of the Islamist rulers in 2013 and 2019 respectively, he pointed out that in Tunisia it took longer to oust “the religious group that has a fascist political project.”
Sawsan Al-Sha’er, one of Bahrain’s most influential journalists and intellectuals, expressed relief over the ouster of the Islamists of Tunisia and said that this should serve as a reminder to all Arabs that Islamist parties – Shiite and Sunni alike – care about nothing else but reaching power.
“All these parties work for the same purpose: to dismantle the state so as to pave the way for the incorporation of the people to the [Muslim] nation,” Al-Sha’er argued.
“The Arabs have discovered that these parties do not have a state project, a development program, or a future vision; the only project they have is to reach a position of decision-making and seize power. The religious parties do not recognize sovereign borders, the state’s constitution, laws, and regulations. In all the Arab countries in which these parties have reached decision-making positions, they bypassed all constitutional and political frameworks, and they do not see anything wrong with that because they belong to a [Muslim] nation, and not to a state.”
According to Al-Sha’er, the Islamists want to strip the Arab states not only of their national identities, but also make them subject to foreign powers, especially Iran.
“Tunisia shook off the dust of the Muslim Brotherhood and put an end to their control, preventing chaos and turmoil in their country,” remarked Amal Abdullah Al-Haddabi, a writer from the United Arab Emirates. “Tunisians, like other Arabs, have suffered a great deal under the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood.”
Al-Haddabi pointed out that during the past decade, successive Tunisian governments that were dominated by the Islamists failed to score any achievements for the people:
“On the contrary, the country witnessed a continuous decline at all levels, and entered into an unprecedented crisis that reached its climax during the past two years with the failure to confront the Covid-19 pandemic, which frustrated the Tunisians… On the economic level, the unemployment rate rose to about 18%, according to official statistics, and the Tunisian economy contracted in 2020 by 9%, at a time when the governments under the control of the Ennahda Party were unable to address any of the real problems.”
On the political level, she added, the Islamists engaged in endless and futile disputes with political parties and state institutions in order to retain control over the government, “plunging Tunisia into continuous political crises throughout the past 10 years.”
According to Al-Haddabi, the Tunisian president was forced to step in when he realized that the country was on the path of chaos and destruction under the control of the Muslim Brotherhood.
“He took these steps to save his country and its people from the grip of the Muslim Brotherhood, their schemes and their dark policies,” she emphasized.
“What happened in Tunisia is similar to what happened in Egypt in 2013, when the Egyptian people rose up against the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood and overthrew them after discovering their subversive project, confirming once again the failure of the Islamists in managing the affairs of the state. What happened in Tunisia is very important, although it is long overdue. It will of course have important effects on the entire Muslim Brotherhood movement in the Arab region, because it confirms that the Arabs can no longer tolerate this group and its policies.”
Saudi writer and journalist Abdel Aziz Khamis expressed hope that what happened in Tunisia would spread to other Arab countries. Urging Arabs to learn from the failed experience of the Islamists in Tunisia, Khamis listed a number of reasons why the Ennahda party failed:
“Ennahda failed to offer alternative programs to those adopted by [deposed Tunisian President Zine El Abdinie] Ben Ali, against whom the people revolted in December 2010… It failed because it was not able to find real solutions to Tunisia’s problems and because it was not concerned with serving the people or improving their living conditions.”
Khamis said that the Ennahda Party also failed because it was unable to transform itself into a political party “in the modern sense of the word.” The party, he added, “was not able to leave the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood.”
Another reason the Tunisian Islamists failed, Khamis wrote, was because they “failed to believe in democracy in its true meaning, including freedom of the media, the independence of the judiciary and economic and social rights.”
The Islamists, he said, “were living in a dangerous state of denial and condescension to reality, and that is another manifestation of failure.” Khamis also pointed out that some of the terrorist attacks and assassinations in Tunisia were carried out by groups affiliated with the Ennahdah Party.
Evidently, many Arabs are pleased that the rule of the Islamists in Tunisia has finally come to an end. The jubilation in the Arab countries over the toppling of the Ennahdah Party sends a clear message to the rest of the world against embracing or appeasing the Islamists. Sadly, this is a message that continues to be ignored by the many Palestinians and leaders in the West who continue to support Hamas and other Iranian-backed Islamist groups that seek to eliminate Israel and keep the Palestinians mired in misery.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
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Biden’s ‘building back boring’ leaves little time for Arab allies
Faisal Al Yafai/The Arab Weekly/August 10/2021
Reading the tealeaves of a new American administration is something of a pastime for Middle East watchers. For the leaders in Middle East capitals, it is more like a full-time job. Who the American president chooses to call or meet first can often reveal something of his intentions for the next four years.
Sometimes, the call sheet is revealing of future foreign policy. Donald Trump’s first call to a Middle East leader was to Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, and the two had a close relationship over the next four years. At other times, it is less telling: Barack Obama called Egypt’s then-president Hosni Mubarak on his first day in office. Two years later, with protests convulsing Cairo, he called on him to step down.
So Arab capitals have watched as six months of the new Biden administration passed without a single face-to-face meeting with a leader from the region. In the past two weeks, that has changed: Joe Biden first welcomed Jordan’s King Abdullah to the White House, followed by Iraq’s prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.
Those choices, and what was discussed, are revealing but hardly comforting. Joe Biden is signaling that he is uninterested in solving the – often dramatic – problems of the region. Instead, his focus is on the dull, boring political work of finishing the vaccine rollout and rebuilding the physical and human infrastructure of America. This determination leaves little time for Arab allies abroad. The choice of King Abdullah and Kadhimi is revealing. Both are weak US allies, buffeted by outside forces. Both were looking for strong support from Biden. Both were disappointed.
Abdullah, the custodian of Jerusalem’s holy sites, found himself sidelined during the Trump administration in favour of relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia. By meeting him first, Biden was signalling he intends to return to the steady – but, frankly, deeply unsatisfactory – status quo ante. Kadhimi’s situation is more precarious. Weeks away from an election, not only can Iraq’s prime minister not rein in Iran-backed militias, but he can’t even publicly endorse US airstrikes on them.
For both, Biden offered little beyond the bare minimum, telling Abdullah “you live in a tough neighborhood,” and declining to endorse Kadhimi, saying only he was “looking forward” to seeing an election in October. Those statements were studiously boring, designed to offer little more than a shrug.
It was reminiscent of his meeting in June with Afghanistan’s president when, against a backdrop of warnings of a Taliban takeover, Biden merely said that “Afghans will have to decide their own future.”In part, this is a recognition by Biden that the weaknesses of Jordan or Iraq, or the reasons why the Afghan war went badly, are not confined to one year or one administration, but are the result of much longer political trends, trends the US is reluctant – and may be powerless – to resolve.
But it is also an extension of Obama’s view that foreign entanglements are distractions best avoided in pursuing a domestic agenda. Biden studiously avoided the Israel-Palestine question until the Gaza war exploded. He has yet to say anything about a deadly attack on an Israeli-linked tanker off the coast of Oman, blamed on Iran, or the attempted hijacking of an asphalt tanker this week. More than one American commentator has referred to Biden’s first few months in office as “building back boring,” a play on an erstwhile slogan of “building back better” and Biden’s low-key reputation.
But building back boring is time-consuming and, given the tricky mathematics of the house of representatives and senate, requires focus and dedication. Biden is trying to push through a vast infrastructure plan. Foreign entanglements are costly, not only in money but especially in political attention, and the new president is determined to avoid them. Even when he ordered airstrikes against militia groups in Iraq in June, there was no thundering speech in front of the cameras; it was left to the Pentagon press office to issue a statement confirming the strikes.
With little fanfare, Biden is drawing a close on the War on Terror years. He has withdrawn from Afghanistan and will end combat missions in Iraq – that was the main announcement of his meeting with Kadhimi, although there was no press conference in the Rose Garden to declare it, and no “Mission Accomplished” banner.
On the same day Jordan’s Abdullah arrived in Washington, the Pentagon announced a detainee from Guantanamo Bay had been transferred home for the first time, suggesting the controversial facility may finally be closed. This is the dull genius of Biden’s presidency, quietly extricating himself from the wars of his predecessors, while planning to spend vast sums on rebuilding at home. The message to the Middle East may have taken six months to be delivered, but it was unmistakably harsh, especially to traditional allies like Jordan who are hoping for more US involvement, not less. And the message was this: America may support you, but its days of leading from the front in the Middle East are over.