English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 30/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews21/english.april30.21.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
When reviled, we bless; when persecuted, we endure; when slandered, we
speak kindly
First Letter to the Corinthians 04/09-16: “For I think
that God has exhibited us apostles as last of all, as though sentenced to death,
because we have become a spectacle to the world, to angels and to mortals. We
are fools for the sake of Christ, but you are wise in Christ. We are weak, but
you are strong. You are held in honour, but we in disrepute. To the present hour
we are hungry and thirsty, we are poorly clothed and beaten and homeless, and we
grow weary from the work of our own hands. When reviled, we bless; when
persecuted, we endure; when slandered, we speak kindly. We have become like the
rubbish of the world, the dregs of all things, to this very day. I am not
writing this to make you ashamed, but to admonish you as my beloved children.
For though you might have ten thousand guardians in Christ, you do not have many
fathers. Indeed, in Christ Jesus I became your father through the gospel. I
appeal to you, then, be imitators of me.”
Titles For The Latest
English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April
29-30/2021
Vaccination an Uphill Battle in Lebanon, Abiad Says
Aoun Reminds BDL of Deadline to Submit Financial Audit Files
President Aoun stresses support for work of National Commission for Missing and
Forcibly Disappeared
France to bar entry to some Lebanese officials hindering progress
Bassil Urges Lavrov to Press Hariri on Government
Fahmi Expresses Gratitude to Saudi Arabia over Stuck Trucks
Saudi ban on Lebanese produce adds pressure on country’s economic crisis
Report: Halted Sea Border Talks Likely to Move ahead
Israel, Lebanon aim to restart maritime border talks
Report: Diab Disapproves Lifting Subsidies before Food Ration Cards
U.S. Embassy Trains Lebanese Judges and Prosecutors through ABA
Polluted Lake Qaraoun Spews Out Tons of Dead Fish
FPM Youth calls EU to help investigate money transfers from Lebanon
German Ambassador to Lebanon visits historical buildings saved by Germany and
UNESCO under Li Beirut initiative
The Beirut port explosion: a geoscience study by Dr. Tony Nemer
World should not overlook Hezbollah’s illegal activities/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab
News/April 29/2021
Hezbollah exported drugs, weapons, with Lebanon government knowledge/Hudhaifa
Ebrahim/Media Line/April 29/2021
Why Beirut Beckons/Michael Young/Carnegia MEC/April 29/2021
Titles For The Latest English
LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April
29-30/2021
Our warplanes can reach Iran, Israeli minister warns amid
nuclear talks
New French bill to boost online surveillance of extremists
Zarif tests the waters in Oman for dialogue with Saudis
Blinken warns off Turkey from buying more Russian missiles
Lenderking embarks on new US push for de-escalation in Yemen
Riyadh to close eight Turkish schools, likely ruffle Ankara
NATO Says Afghanistan Withdrawal Has Begun
Palestinian Leaders Weigh Delay of Long-Awaited Vote
India Covid Deaths Climb Again as Global Aid Flown In
Israel is not prepared for the Palestinian elections - editorial
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 29-30/2021
Biden's first 100 days a rousing success by Trump's own measures -
opinion/Douglas Bloomflield/Jerusalem Post/April 29/2021
The ramifications of a US return to the 2015 Iran deal - opinion/Efraim Inbar
and Eran Lirman/Jerusalem Post /April 29/2021
F-35: The UAE’s Lightning or a Lemon?/Andrew E. Harrod/International Policy
Digest/April 29/2021
Biden Acknowledges the Armenian Genocide; What of Other, Current
Genocides?/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/April 29/2021
To know what happens when presidents hinder state affairs, ask Lebanon and
Tunisia/Mohammad Krishan/MEM/April 29/2021
Biden's Border/Chris Farrell/Gatestone Institute/April 29/2021
Turkey: How Erdogan's Pledge for Reform Collapsed in Five Months/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone
Institute/April 29/2021
Those who yearn for war in Libya/Habib Lassoued/The Arab Weekly/April 29/2021
Iran, the Competing Power Centers and Middle Eastern Imbroglios/Charles Elias
Chartouni/April 30/2021
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 29-30/2021
Vaccination an Uphill Battle in Lebanon, Abiad Says
Naharnet/April 29, 2021
Director of the Rafik Hariri University Hospital Firass Abiad said on Thursday
the vaccination campaign against coronavirus in Lebanon is an "uphill battle,"
pointing to a lack of availability of the vaccine. “The number of Covid cases
admitted to RHUH continues its decline. Though ICU beds remain full, yesterday
we closed one of our regular Covid wards. Other hospitals show a similar trend.
Yet, as Covid cases elsewhere sharply increase, the future remains uncertain,”
said Abiad in a tweet. He added that only 3% have been fully vaccinated in
Lebanon, and 6% have been partially vaccinated. “This low number is caused by a
lack of availability of the vaccine. Yet, less than 1/4 of the target population
have registered for vaccination. Clearly, vaccine roll out will be an uphill
battle,” said Abiad. However, evidence is mounting that vaccines can prevent
severe illness in the vast majority of those infected, according to Abiad. He
noted that the”majority of the population remains susceptible to the infection,
and will unlikely acquire immunity soon. Yet the low Covid numbers will
encourage people to return to their normal lives, and activity will likely
increase as we head into the summer.”
Abiad said Lebanon’s failing economy is negatively impacting all institutions,
and not just hospitals. “The received support is barely enough to sustain
ongoing hospital activities. Currently, and as previously stated, the future
financial situation of hospitals remains bleak,” he noted.
Aoun Reminds BDL of Deadline to Submit Financial Audit
Files
Naharnet/April 29, 2021
President Michel Aoun on Thursday reminded the Lebanese that only a few days
separate them from “the juncture of the handing over of files and documents by
Banque du Liban to the financial audit firm.”“There is a deadline for submitting
BDL’s files and documents to the financial audit firm and we and the Lebanese
people are monitoring,” Aoun added in a tweet. On April 9, Lebanon provided the
auditing firm with "updated" information for a stalled forensic audit of the
central bank demanded by the international community, the finance ministry said.
The International Monetary Fund and France are among creditors demanding an
audit of Banque du Liban as part of urgent reforms to unlock financial support,
as the country faces its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.
The finance ministry said the central bank had sent it "the updated list of
information requested by the forensic auditing firm Alvarez and Marsal and the
ministry has sent it on to the firm." But BDL apparently did not hand over all
the files and an agreement was reached on a new deadline. New York-based Alvarez
and Marsal in November pulled out from the audit after the central bank claimed
that provisions including Lebanon's banking secrecy law prevented it from
releasing some of the necessary information. Lebanon's parliament in December
approved a bill that suspends banking secrecy laws for one year to allow for the
forensic audit.
President Aoun stresses support for work of National
Commission for Missing and Forcibly Disappeared
NNA/April 29, 2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, asserted that “The National
Authority for the Missing and Forcibly Disappeared, which was established
according to Law No. 105 (30/11/2018), is tasked to follow-up this humanitarian
issue with distinction, in the hope of reaching practical results which reveal
the fate of these missing and forcibly disappeared persons”. “This ends their
sufferings and reassures their families, turning a painful page from the
chapters of the events which Lebanon witnessed over the years” the President
said. In addition, President Aoun stressed his full support for the Commission’s
work, emphasizing his keenness that concerned state institutions exert all
possible efforts in order to reach desired ends. Positions of the President came
while meeting members of the National Commission for the Missing and Forcibly
Disappeared, Judge Salim Al-Osta, and Forensic Doctor, Hassan Fayyad Hussein,
today at the Presidential Palace. Judges Al-Osta and Hussein made the following
oath before President Aoun: “I swear by God Almighty to carry-out my duties, at
the National Commission for the Missing and Victims of Enforced Disappearance,
with honesty, sincerity, independence and impartiality, and to conduct all my
actions in a manner which inspires confidence and concern for the supremacy of
right, and the protection and promotion of human rights”. -- Presidency Press
Office
France to bar entry to some Lebanese officials hindering
progress
Reuters/April 29, 2021
With the EU, Paris has been working on creating a sanctions regime for Lebanon
As part of efforts to raise pressure on key Lebanese actors, France intends to
stop issuing visas to certain officials, diplomats have said.
PARIS: France said on Thursday it had started putting in measures to limit some Lebanese officials from entering the country on the grounds that they were blocking efforts to find a solution to the political and economic crisis. France has spearheaded international efforts to rescue Lebanon from its deepest crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war, but after eight months has failed so far to persuade squabbling politicians to adopt a reform roadmap or form a new government to unlock international aid. With the European Union, Paris has been working on creating a sanctions regime for Lebanon that could ultimately see asset freezes and travel bans. However, that is likely to take time. As part of efforts to raise pressure on key Lebanese actors, France intends to stop issuing visas to certain officials, diplomats have said. "On a national basis, we have started to implement restrictive measures in terms of access to French territory against personalities involved in the current political blockage, or involved in corruption," Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said in remarks alongside his Maltese counterpart. Le Drian gave no names and it was not clear if the actual measures were already in place. "It’s not just words in the air," said a French diplomat. They (Lebanese officials) can reassure themselves that it’s not just threats."Two diplomats said a list of names had been put together and people were being made aware. The French foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment. As many senior Lebanese politicians have homes, bank accounts and investments in the EU and France, and send their children to universities there, a withdrawal of that access could be a lever to focus minds. "We reserve the right to adopt additional measures against all those who hinder the way out of the crisis and we will do so in coordination with our international partners," Le Drian added.
Bassil Urges Lavrov to Press Hariri on Government
Naharnet/April 29/2021
Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil held talks Thursday in Moscow
with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. “The (new) government is necessary
but it will be insufficient should it lack the decision, will and ability to
carry out reforms,” Bassil said at a press conference after the meeting. “This
is a Lebanese affair; Russia does not interfere in domestic affairs but it is
pushing for reforms and this is what we thank it for. We are all waiting for the
PM-designate to take a decision to carry on with the government’s formation, and
more importantly a decision to carry out reform,” the FPM chief added. “We asked
the Russian foreign minister to play the necessary role to push the PM-designate
to finalize the formation file and we also asked him to organize a conference in
Lebanon to encourage the return of refugees,” Bassil went on to say. “Lebanon
needs a government and there is negligence in achieving this matter. There is no
other choice but to have a government that can move to achieve what’s
necessary,” he added. Separately, Bassil said he called on Russian officials to
encourage investment in Lebanon and to play a role in resolving the maritime
border dispute between Lebanon and Syria. Bassil also noted that the upcoming
Syrian presidential election will be a facilitating and encouraging factor
regarding the refugee return, thanking Russia for its decision to offer Lebanon
free Covid vaccines in response to a letter sent by President Michel Aoun in
addition to the commercial vaccines that have started arriving in Lebanon.
Fahmi Expresses Gratitude to Saudi Arabia
over Stuck Trucks
Naharnet/April 29/2021
Caretaker Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi expressed gratitude to Saudi Arabia
for allowing around 40 stranded Lebanese trucks on the Saudi border to enter the
Kingdom, Fahmi’s press office said in a statement on Thursday.
“Caretaker Interior Minister Mohamed Fahmi extends his thankfulness to King
Salman bin Abdulaziz, and Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, and Interior Minister
Prince Abdulaziz bin Saud for their kind humanitarian initiative allowing
Lebanese products stranded on the border with Saudi Arabia and in Jeddah port to
enter the Kingdom,” read the statement. In the first Saudi move after the
Kingdom’s decision to ban Lebanese fresh produce from entering its territory or
passing through, the Saudi authorities allowed Lebanese trucks loaded with goods
and stuck on the border to enter its territory. Saudi authorities reversed their
decision after contacts from religious authorities in Lebanon, including
Maronite Patriarch Beshara el-Rahi, Grand Mufti of the Republic, and Fahmi who
was authorized to address the newly emerging crisis between Lebanon and Saudi
Arabia over drug smuggling. “Fahmi was not surprised by the Saudi positivity,
and he is certain that the Kingdom of Good will spare no effort to reconsider
its latest position, mainly at this delicate stage that Lebanon and its people
are going through,” the statement added. The Saudi decision banning fresh
produce came over a drug-stuffed pomegranate shipment.
Saudi ban on Lebanese produce adds
pressure on country’s economic crisis
Media Line/April 29/2021
A ban over claims that fruit and vegetables are used to smuggle drugs comes as
the country experiences its worst economic and political crises ever. Saudi
Arabia has declared that it will not allow Lebanese fruit and vegetable imports
to enter the country, claiming that they are increasingly being used to smuggle
drugs. The ban came into effect on Sunday, and will remain in place until
Lebanon can guarantee that it has done what is needed to prevent
drug-trafficking. Also on Sunday, Saudi Arabia frustrated an attempt to smuggle
millions of captagon pills – an amphetamine drug – in a shipment of pomegranates
arriving from Lebanon. The shipment reportedly originated in Syria, and was
later shipped from Lebanon. Saudi ambassador to Lebanon, Waleed A. Bukhari,
tweeted that the quantities of drugs discovered with the pomegranates were
“enough to drown the entire Arab world in drugs and psychotropic substances, not
just Saudi Arabia.” On Monday, the Lebanese government asked the Saudis to
reconsider the ban. The kingdom’s ban has hit Lebanon as it is drowning in
one of the worst crises in its history. The country, which endured and survived
15 years of civil war between 1975-1990 to devastating effect, now is being
crushed under the twin weight of political dysfunctionality and a catastrophic
economic situation. And COVID-19 isn’t helping.
Report: Halted Sea Border Talks Likely to
Move ahead
Naharnet/April 29/2021
Lebanon’s halted sea border demarcation talks with Israel are likely to resume
sometime “soon,” the reputable An Nahar newspaper reported on Thursday.
According to “signals” received by “supervisors” of this file, some “positive”
developments occurred recently, including “secret” talks away from the media
spotlight. “Hopefully” the talks lead to a near resumption of indirect
negotiations at the UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura, said the daily. Shall the
much-anticipated talks resume, it will be an indicator that the US mediator
succeeded at obtaining Lebanon and Israel’s approval to resume the crucial
talks, and counter concerns about tension building up between the two foes.
Lebanon and Israel began indirect talks with U.S. mediation in October to reach
a deal over the disputed area that is believed to be rich with oil and natural
gas deposits. The meetings that stopped few weeks later were being held at a
U.N. post along the border of the two nations that remain technically in a state
of war. The negotiations were the first non-security talks to be held between
the two countries, which have no diplomatic relations following decades of
conflict. Resolving the border issue could pave the way for lucrative oil and
gas deals on both sides. In late October, the Lebanese delegation to the talks —
a mix of army generals and professionals — offered a new map that pushes for an
additional 1,430 square kilometers (550 square miles). This area is to be
included in Lebanese territory on top of the already disputed 860 square
kilometer- (330 square mile-) area of the Mediterranean Sea that each side
claims is within their own exclusive economic zones. The decree still required
the signatures of the defense minister, prime minister and president to go into
effect.
Israel, Lebanon aim to restart maritime border talks
Jerusalem Post/April 29/2021
"We are examining the renewal of talks based on the known disputed territory,"
Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz's spokesman said. Israel and Lebanon are
considering relaunching negotiations on their maritime border, the Energy
Ministry confirmed on Thursday.
"We are examining the renewal of talks based on the known disputed territory,"
Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz's spokesman said. Pro-Hezbollah Lebanese
newspaper Al Akhbar said talks will take place on Monday, but the Israeli side
said the date has yet to be finalized.
Israel and Lebanon entered negotiations for the first time in 30 years last
year, with US mediation. If the talks restart, it will be the first time the
Biden administration will be involved. The “known disputed territory” refers to
a triangular area of the Mediterranean Sea that starts at the countries’ land
border and is 5-6 km. wide on average. The area would be about 2% of Israel’s
economic borders. During the previous four rounds of talks, in November and
October 2020, Lebanon upped its demand with a line extending much further south,
increasing the disputed area from about 860 sq.km. to 2,300 sq.km.
Two weeks ago, Lebanese Public Works and Transport Minister Michel Najjar
announced that the greater demands would be submitted to the UN, but Lebanese
President Michel Aoun did not move forward with the process. Aoun is expected to
meet with the military delegation conducting the talks in the coming days to
discuss the Lebanese position, Al Akhbar reported. Israel drew up its own map in
response to increased demands from Lebanon, claiming more than double the area
of the Mediterranean Sea that is currently in dispute. The map was first
published by The Jerusalem Post on Monday.
The Energy Ministry only plans to use the map if Lebanon moves forward with
submitting its new position to the UN. Israel and Lebanon hope that settling the
border will encourage further gas exploration in the area. Israel already pumps
significant amounts of gas from the Mediterranean, but Lebanon has yet to do so.
Last week, following a meeting with Aoun, US Undersecretary of State for
Political Affairs David Hale said negotiations between Israel and Lebanon “have
potential to unlock significant economic benefits for Lebanon.”“This is all the
more critical against the backdrop of the severe economic crisis the country is
facing,” he said. The Energy Ministry source expressed hope that the talks will
restart under the Biden administration and be productive.*Reuters contributed to
this report.
Report: Diab Disapproves Lifting Subsidies before Food
Ration Cards
Naharnet/April 29/2021
Caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab refuses lifting subsidies on basic goods in
Lebanon before the crisis-stricken country completes the allocation of food
ration cards mainly for needy families, media reports said on Thursday. A draft
on financing food ration cards is not complete yet, pending the final approval
of Diab, said VDL radio station. This card is being offered as an alternative to
the subsidy on vital commodities (medicine, food, and fuel). But the mechanism
of payment has not been decided yet. The card will be obtained through local
banks. However, Diab actually set a condition for running this card. He refuses
to have the Central Bank stop subsidies on basic goods before the card reaches
at least 600,000 families. On the other hand, experts believe that Lebanon can
save 1.4 billion dollars under a partial subsidy removal out of more than $ 5
billion the Central Bank of Lebanon pays in subsidies. The value of the card,
from which 750 thousand families are supposed to benefit, amounts to one million
and 330 thousand Lebanese pounds per month, provided that the family whose
members exceed 4 people get one million and 700 thousand pounds per month. The
economic crisis in Lebanon has depleted foreign reserves, prompting stark
warnings the Central Bank can no longer finance subsidies of some basic
commodities, including fuel.
U.S. Embassy Trains Lebanese Judges and Prosecutors through
ABA
Naharnet/April 29/2021
In April 2021, the Office of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs
(INL) at the Embassy of the United States in Beirut, in collaboration with the
American Bar Association (ABA), concluded a series of training seminars for
members of the Lebanese judicial system focused on efforts to strengthen the
country’s criminal justice processes and develop proposals for alternative
sentencing or judicial punishments other than incarceration, the US embassy said
in a press release on Thursday. The Embassy’s support for this program
represents its ongoing commitment to the creation of an independent and
effective Lebanese judicial system that can address issues of corruption and
help enact reforms necessary for the country’s development. Through a $1 million
grant over two-and-a-half years, the ABA invited numerous American legal experts
to provide technical training for more than 350 Lebanese judges and prosecutors.
These sessions explored a range of topics, such as explanations of modern
forensic techniques, the use of digital evidence in prosecutions, how to track
money laundering schemes, the evolution of cyber-related crimes, how to
prosecute case involving banking secrecy and illicit enrichment, and combatting
public corruption. Other training sessions focused on the concept of plea
bargaining and alternatives to incarceration as a means of reducing Lebanon’s
pre-trial prison population. Together, these programs provided participants
examples of best practices in international legal cooperation and expanded the
knowledge and capacity for Lebanese officials to investigate such crimes. “This
training served as an occasion for Lebanese judges to advance their knowledge
and expertise on several subjects pertaining the various field of the law,” said
Head of the Higher Judicial Council Judge Souheil Abboud. “These sessions
allowed the Lebanese judiciary and INL to engage in a valuable collaboration
which opens promising prospects for the future.”Following these seminars, the
ABA conducted train-the-trainer sessions for fifteen Lebanese judges, who will
develop continuing education classes for judges and prosecutors on similar
topics, ensuring participants will retain their knowledge and implement the
skills gained during the ABA sessions.
Polluted Lake Qaraoun Spews Out Tons of Dead Fish
Agence France Presse/April 29/2021
Tonnes of dead fish have washed up on the shore of a highly polluted lake in
eastern Lebanon in the past few days, an official said Thursday. It was not
immediately clear what caused the fish kill in Lake Qaraoun on the Litani river,
which several local fisherman said was unprecedented in scale.
A preliminary report said a virus had killed only carp in the lake, but a
veteran water expert said their deaths could also have been caused by pollution.
Hundreds of fish of all sizes lay dead on the banks of the more than five
kilometre (three mile) long lake Thursday, and the stench of their rotting flesh
clung to the air. Men shovelled carcasses into a wheelbarrow, as a mechanical
digger scooped up more into the back of a truck. "It's our third day here
picking up dead fish," said Nassrallah el-Hajj, from the Litani River Authority,
dressed in fishing waders, adding they had so far "carried away around 40 tonnes".
On the water's edge, 61-year-old fisherman Mahmoud Afif said it was a "disaster"."In
my life I've never seen anything like it," said the father-of-two. The Qaraoun
lake was built as a reservoir on the Litani river in 1959 to produce hydropower
and provide water for irrigation. But in recent years experts have warned huge
quantities of wastewater, industrial waste, and agricultural runoff containing
pesticides and fertiliser flooding into it have made it increasingly toxic.
'Toxic bloom'? -
Since 2018 fishing has been forbidden in the reservoir as the fish there was
declared unfit for human consumption, though fish from the lake have continued
to appear in several markets. The Litani River Authority and the Society for the
Protection of Nature in Lebanon on Friday warned of a "viral epidemic", and
called for fishing to be forbidden in the Litani as well as in the lake. It said
the likely disease had only affected carp, while four other types of fish
appeared to be unaffected. Kamal Slim, a water expert who has been taking
samples of water from the lake for the past 15 years, said pollution could also
be the cause. "Without analysis, we cannot be decisive," said the researcher.
But the lake is also home to cyanobacteria, or blue-green algae, and in warmer
months the excess nutrients from pollution have caused the bacteria to erupt
into bright green blooms that release toxins. "Right now there is a
cyanobacteria bloom, though less thick than last year," he said. That or a
bacteria could be responsible for harming the fish, especially since they are
weaker during the reproduction season. "Another possibility is very toxic
ammonium," he said. In July 2016, Lebanese media reported that tonnes of fish
floated to the surface overnight in the Qaraoun lake. Slim said that was due to
a toxic bloom and oxygen depletion.
FPM Youth calls EU to help investigate money transfers from
Lebanon
NNA/April 29/2021
The Youth Department of the Free Patriotic Movement mobilized outside the
European Union offices' in Beirut Thursday, to up calls for helping Lebanon
uncover the truth behind the money transferred from Lebanon after October 17,
2019. Elie Abi Raad and Rami Sadaqa from FPM Youth Department presented the EU
offices with a letter hereby asking support for the anti-corruption campaign in
Lebanon.
The letter read the following: "Dear esteemed member of the European Union,
Opposed to what many try to portray, Lebanon is not a bankrupt or failed state,
but rather a looted state. ةMid-2019, the Lebanese people were surprised to find
that they were scammed and all their savings vanished from their bank accounts.
Parents were not allowed to transfer money for students abroad for basic
expenses such as rent and food. On the other hand, elitists were allowed to
transfer millions. Since October 2019, Lebanese Banks have been transferring
money discretionarily to those with power.
Our youth found their future being robbed and with no hope but to leave the
country. We here today ask for your help. Based upon the evidence of
embezzlement by elitists, as well as the UN Convention against corruption,
resolution 58/4, which is signed by the Lebanese state and all members of the
Europeans Unions, we request that you investigate the source of every
transaction done by Lebanese politicians, workers of the public sectors and
state contractors for alleged fraud. And in case fraud is confirmed, we please
ask you to help us return that money to the deserving Lebanese people.
German Ambassador to Lebanon visits historical buildings
saved by Germany and UNESCO under Li Beirut initiative
NNA/April 29/2021
On April 29th, 2021, His Excellency Mr. Andreas Kindl, German Ambassador to
Lebanon, visited four damaged historic buildings that were recently stabilized
and sheltered by UNESCO in Beirut, along with Judge Marwan Abboud, Governor of
Beirut, Dr.Sarkis Khoury, Director General of Antiquities – Lebanese Ministry of
Culture, and Ms. Costanza Farina, Director of the UNESCO office in Beirut.
UNESCO architects and staff explained the technical work that has been
undertaken in the project, which was financed by the German Federal Foreign
Office with a contribution of 500,000 €, and was executed by UNESCO as part of
its flagship initiative LiBeirut. The project includes, in total, 12 buildings
with historical and heritage value, in the urban districts of Rmeil, Medawar and
Saifi. Between December 2020 and March 2021, 11 of them have been stabilized,
sheltered and propped in an urgent intervention by UNESCO and in close
coordination with the Directorate General of Antiquities (DGA) of Lebanon. The
buildings were severely damaged and at a high risk of collapse, following the
devastating explosions on August 4. As most of them are privately owned, there
was also a significant risk of gentrification, i.e. having these buildings
demolished and replaced with a new architecture that would have changed the
historical and cultural identity of the capital. “The Beirut blast has done
tremendous damage to the heart of the city, said Ambassador Kindl. I am glad to
see the results achieved by UNESCO in stabilizing and sheltering damaged
historic buildings, and Germany has contributed 500.000 € to this effort”. “This
is not only an element of the Foreign Office’s active policy to support the
preservation of cultural and architectural heritage all over the world; it is
also an element of our policy to strengthen multilateralism”, he added, pointing
out the fact that Germany is the third largest contributor to UNESCO. Mr. Kindl
also highlighted the fact that Germany is currently participating in the Lebanon
Financing Facility(LFF), and that it will support the efforts of preserving
cultural heritage as part of it. The LFF is set up to provide a pooled financing
mechanism for the Lebanon Reform, Recovery and Reconstruction Framework (the
3RF), jointly launched by the EU, the World Bankand the UN.
As for Judge Marwan Abboud, Governor of Beirut, he noticed the difference
between the situation of these buildings during the first days that followed the
explosions, and their situation today, emphasizing “the greatness of the work
that was done with the support of international organizations, associations, the
international community and the municipality of Beirut, which contributed to the
safeguarding of the cultural heritage by facilitating the interventions and
giving the necessary permits”. He added: “Since day 1, we were next to the
people of Beirut in this disaster-stricken area, and all efforts combined have
made possible today the revival of these neighborhoods and streets, so that they
return better than they werebefore the blasts. When these buildings were damaged
by the explosions of the port, real estate developers rushed here in an attempt
to exploit the situation, demolish heritage buildings and establish modern
constructions, but the supreme national interest ruled to preserve the
archaeological character of the area and its social fabric, mainly by taking
appropriate legal measures. No historical or heritage building has been
demolished, and we will not allow that in Beirut and in this particular area”.
Thanking Germany, UNESCO and all “the partners who have been with us since the
port explosions”, Dr. Sarkis Khoury underlined from his side the fact that “the
first phase of the interventions is now being completed with the stabilization,
propping and sheltering of the damaged heritage buildings, but much remains to
be done”. “The DGA and the Ministry of Culture have launched a campaign for the
renovation works that should follow next and for which funds have not been
secured yet”, he concluded. On her part, Ms. Costanza Farina asserted that “the
visit to the stabilized buildings reveal the concrete achievements of the
LiBeirutinitiative, which was launched by the UNESCO Director General Audrey
Azoulay during her visit to Beirut in late August 2020, to mobilize partnerships
and resources in support of the reconstructionof the city”. “With the generous
funding from Germany, the first UNESCO Member State to respond to the call and
to invest in cultural heritage interventions within the LiBeirut initiative,
UNESCO has been able to save 12 historical buildings that otherwise would have
collapsed. These emergency interventions have also created much needed jobs for
architects, contractors, workers and are all part of a larger UNESCO program
that supports the revitalization of heritage, cultural and artistic life in
Beirut. These results are a proof that in close collaboration with the
Directorate General of Antiquities and the support of the Governor of Beirut,
UNESCO has created value and delivered on its promises”. “This is not the end
but just the beginning of a joint path, where these and other historical
buildings will be fully renovated. Culture, heritage and art are at the heart of
Beirut’s identity and we are collectively working to see Beirut shine again”,
she said. -- UNESCO
The Beirut port explosion: a geoscience study by Dr. Tony
Nemer
NNA/April 29/2021
The National News Agency shares a geoscience study of the Beirut port explosion
that was published in Seismological Research Letters on 28-4-2021 by Dr. Tony
Nemer, who is professor of Geology at the American University of Beirut.
Generated waves
The study shows that the Beirut port explosion was so powerful that it generated
seismic waves equivalent of an earthquake ranging in magnitude from 3.3 to 3.6
as recorded by different seismological networks. The explosion also caused the
propagation of an enormous blast wave, a hydro-acoustic wave, and an infrasonic
wave (sub-audible to human hearing). The blast wave was by far the leading cause
of mass destruction that followed the blast. The hydro-acoustic signals were
detected by sea-bottom seismometers as they propagated from the explosion
epicenter through the Mediterranean water. The infrasonic signals propagated in
the atmosphere over long distances and were recorded by infrasound receptors of
the International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
at distances up to 9,000 km.
Most of the losses and destruction that followed the Beirut explosion were
basically due to the blast wave that propagated radially through the air and
inflicted direct destruction to lives and properties within a radius of about 4
km. This account ties perfectly well with all the footage that documented the
moment of the explosion followed by the shaking of buildings and then by the
damage to properties as the blast wave spread out above the ground.
Yield estimation
The reported culprit of 2750 tons of ammonium nitrates is equivalent to about
880 tons of TNT based on a relative effectiveness factor of 0.32 (which means
that every one weight unit of ammonium nitrates corresponds to 0.32 weight unit
of TNT). It should be noted, however, that the determination of the explosive
relative effectiveness using TNT equivalency is a bit complicated as it depends
on several factors that are related to the ammonium nitrate such as density,
porosity, nitrogen content, contamination, storage, and initiating events.
The study mentions that most yield estimates based on different studies are
included within the range 500-1120 tons of TNT equivalent, which makes of the
Beirut explosion one of the biggest documented ammonium nitrate explosions in
history.
Intensity distribution of destruction
A preliminary intensity distribution map provided by the United States
Geological Survey shows damage intensity ranging between V and VII, which would
correspond to an earthquake magnitude ranging between 5 and 6. NASA's Advanced
Rapid Imaging and Analysis team used synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data
collected before and after the explosion to map the extent of damage caused by
the blast in terms of changes in the land surface and built structures. The data
suggest that the distribution of damage indicates a direct relation with
distance. These observations are similar to an earthquake’s affected region
where the intensity distribution of damage would normally be strongest close to
the epicenter and decreases with distance.
Closing remarks
The Beirut explosion was one of the biggest documented ammonium nitrate blasts
in history. The explosion’s aftermath was no less than that of a natural
disaster that can have a similar toll in Lebanon, known for historic earthquakes
and tsunamis. The official disaster response and management proved to be almost
non-existent. Although the outcome was devastating, it was relatively localized,
unlike earthquakes which may cause widespread damage. Accordingly, the Lebanese
authorities need to put forward suitable disaster response plans in preparation
for potential natural disasters in the future. Lastly, despite the non-existent
causal relation between the Beirut port explosion and any potential earthquake
that could occur in the future, the explosion’s catastrophic outcome should
alarm the Lebanese authorities enough to cause them to reconsider the impact of
many proposed projects that they have been warned could pose a direct risk on
public safety, such as some of the dam projects that are underway despite their
high risk of potentially causing earthquakes due to reservoir induced
seismicity. Remark: please refer to the original article where all figures and
tables and references are included.
World should not overlook Hezbollah’s
illegal activities
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/April 29/2021
خالد أبو زهر: على العالم أن لا يغض الطرف عن انشطة حزب الله المخالفة للقوانين
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/98371/%d8%ae%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af-%d8%a3%d8%a8%d9%88-%d8%b2%d9%87%d8%b1-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85-%d8%a3%d9%86-%d9%84%d8%a7-%d9%8a%d8%ba%d8%b6-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b7%d8%b1%d9%81/
The pomegranate shipment from Lebanon that was
used to smuggle Captagon drugs and was seized by the Saudi authorities last week
should not come as a surprise to anyone. Indeed, it has been well known for some
time now that Hezbollah protects and engages in a myriad illegal activities.
This once again highlights the fact that this organization has no respect for
the law, governments, citizens’ interests and well-being or anything that does
not support its own interests. And in that case, all that matters is that it
gets its share of the drug smuggling money. This was, of course, not an isolated
incident. In June last year, the European law enforcement agency warned that
Hezbollah operatives were believed to be “trafficking in diamonds and drugs.”
Also last year, two major seizures of Captagon pills were achieved by police in
Italy and Greece, with a combined value exceeding $1 billion.
Hezbollah, with the support of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),
has for decades been relying on illegal activities to finance part of its
activities. When one knows the control Hezbollah has over every single port and
airport in Lebanon, as well as its control of all smuggling routes and its
international network from Africa to the Americas that has been targeted by the
US Justice Department, there is no doubt about the role it plays in
international drug trafficking.
As Saudi Arabia takes the necessary action and bans agricultural products from
Lebanon, I wonder how the Lebanese authorities might guarantee strong measures
against drug organizations and launch a strong crackdown on their protectors.
This is simply impossible. Lebanon is now the land of lawlessness. It has no
credibility, as everything is permitted. Once again, one should remember that
the Saudi decision came after repeated similar smuggling attempts from Lebanon,
and patience and support have their limits.
This time it was drugs, but knowing that Hezbollah and the IRGC are ultimately
behind these activities means that these routes and channels could also be used
to try and smuggle other illegal materials, such as explosives and weapons. In
short, Lebanon is no longer eroding but simply destroying its international
relations for the sake and interests of Hezbollah and Iran. This not only
applies to the Gulf, but also to countries from Asia to Europe.I am nevertheless
expecting several Western analysts to shift the topic of Hezbollah’s nefarious
role in Lebanon and take the usual spin of “Arab countries are abandoning
Lebanon,” as if everyone should yield to the blackmail imposed by Hezbollah with
a smile on their face. We insult you but we need you to welcome our expatriates;
we send you smuggled drugs in fruits, but you need to keep importing our
products; we threaten your security, but you still need to lobby for us
internationally; we disappear your deposits in our banks, but you still need to
send us subsidies and support our corrupt, rotten economy. Am I missing
something else?
Lebanon is simply destroying its international relations for the sake and
interests of Hezbollah and Iran.
This time, they might start adding a third wing to their usual Hezbollah
description that separates the political organization from the armed one — an
illegal wing. They might as well start justifying such activities as they
provide Hezbollah with resources due to the dire economic situation and the
inability of the IRGC to support it due to US sanctions. They have absolved
Hezbollah and Iran from so much more, so this would not be a surprise,
especially as the nuclear deal is back on track.
It has also become shameful and humiliating that Lebanese political leaders are
asking other countries to not take measures against it while all this is taking
place and Lebanon bears responsibility. This is “Stockholm syndrome” politics at
its highest level. If Lebanon cannot clean its own house, we should not expect
change from others. There is no longer a place for the politicians’
justification of a “bitter pill” for the greater good. The greater good of
Lebanon comes with the end of Hezbollah’s status. It is time all politicians
stopped marketing this greater good phrase while protecting Hezbollah, as this
is what is dragging the country into more chaos. Change will only come with an
end to Hezbollah’s military arsenal and its status of being above and
controlling the state; Vichy-like trials would also be needed.
Another important point to investigate is that there is no drug trade without
money laundering. For every flow of goods, there is a flow of money going in the
opposite direction. At the very least, investigations should focus on this.
Which banks or local financial institutions might have facilitated this? Could
the Banque du Liban have played a historical role in covering such operations
for Hezbollah until the US sanctions were imposed? It is high time for a
thorough, forensic investigation into trading and financial institutions —
private and public — in Lebanon.
We are at a decisive time. As the world re-engages with Iran through the nuclear
deal, it should not ease up on Hezbollah’s illegal activities and the IRGC. The
US should continue sanctioning Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon and
everywhere else. The US Justice Department, which in 2018 designated Hezbollah
as a transnational crime organization, should keep focusing on and disrupting
these activities. It is also a much-needed message to Iran that Hezbollah’s
activities will not be tolerated.
It is also important for the US and the European nations involved in the nuclear
deal to properly categorize Hezbollah as what it really is. It is not a Lebanese
political party, it is not a group resisting occupation, it is not a social
organization for the Shiite community — it is a non-state terrorist organization
with its master in Tehran.
The international community needs to understand that one cannot build a country
with an organization that conducts such activities. This cannot be accepted;
even pragmatism does not allow it. It is time to put pressure on Iran in
Lebanon, or else this will be its first step toward blackmailing the
Mediterranean region and Europe. Iran should integrate and play a role in the
future of the region as the nuclear deal intends, but it needs to give up these
activities and Hezbollah’s current structure. This is as essential as a nuclear
deal.
• Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the
editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
Hezbollah exported drugs, weapons,
with Lebanon government knowledge
Hudhaifa Ebrahim/Media Line/April 29/2021
هودهيفا ابراهام: حزب الله يصدر المخدرات والأسلحة من لبنان بمعرفة الحكومة
اللبنانية
After massive drug and weapons seizures, Saudi
Arabia bans the import of Lebanese produce, with support from Bahrain, Kuwait,
Oman, and the UAE.
Saudi Arabia on Sunday imposed a ban on the import or transit through the
kingdom of all fruits and vegetables from Lebanon after a series of seizures,
drugs and weapons in shipments coming from the Land of the Cedars to the Gulf
countries.
On Friday, Saudi authorities intercepted over 2.4 million amphetamine pills,
concealed in a shipment of pomegranates coming from Lebanon.
Walid al-Bukhari, the Saudi ambassador to Beirut, tweeted on Sunday that his
country had seized more than 600 million narcotic pills and hundreds of
kilograms of hashish smuggled from Lebanon over the last six years.
In addition, Greece announced on Thursday evening, following information
received from the US Drug Enforcement Administration, that it had seized four
tons of cannabis in Piraeus Port, which was hidden in a shipment of industrial
cupcake-making machines bound from Lebanon to Slovakia.
The decision, which will also affect Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United
Arab Emirates, will lead to more than $70 million in estimated annual lost
sales, NGOs concerned with agriculture in Lebanon told local media outlets.
Four Gulf countries issued statements of support for the Saudi decision by press
time, namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and the UAE, while Qatar had yet to issue a
reaction.
Newspapers in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reported that decisions will be
issued soon related to permanently banning imports from Lebanon until a solution
is found to the problem of drug and weapons smuggling.
The products coming from Lebanon constitute at most 10% of the Gulf Cooperation
Council countries’ produce imports. said by authorities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE,
Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. Countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan and India
will be able to fill the gap.
RO (whose full name has been withheld for fear of assassination), a former
Hezbollah member who used to export arms and drugs to various countries, told
The Media Line, “Hezbollah relies mainly on [the sale of] drugs since the lack
of funding caused by US sanctions on a number of party members and against Iran,
in addition to the collapse of the Lebanese state.
“We were working all day on Hezbollah farms in villages like Yammoune [in the
Baalbek-Hermel Governorate] and other Lebanese villages in Shebaa Farms [known
in Israel as Mount Dov], which are the main source of drugs in Lebanon and are
under the protection of the party’s forces, in addition to sections of the
Lebanese army,” RO said.
“The volume of drugs that the party used to ship from Lebanon alone up to 2016
was estimated at more than $5 billion annually, not including its cooperation
with Iranian facilities at drug farms in certain Latin American countries. It is
a network of drug cartels,” he continued.
“As for farms that export vegetables, they are not owned by Hezbollah, but
whoever does not cooperate with it, will have their agricultural crops burned,
or they would be threatened or killed, done with the knowledge of the Lebanese
state, who cannot do anything about it,” RO said.
He explained: “More than 10,000 people, all of them Lebanese, work with salaries
not exceeding $100 a month to pack drugs, and sometimes weapons, and any truck
driver who does not cooperate with the party will obtain permits for his exit
from Lebanon or regarding other security measures.
“Weapons are imported from Iran, Syria or Iraq, and they are also sent via
shipments of vegetables, fruits and some other products exported by Lebanon,
such as electrical appliances,” RO said.
“Arms constitute only a small part of these exports, given the difficulty of
exporting them, and the countries to which arms are exported in the Gulf are
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain,” he said.
“Hezbollah owns more than five camps to train fighters from the Ansar Allah Al-Houthi
[Iran-backed Yemeni rebel] group as well as fighters from Bahraini and Kuwaiti
groups belonging to the Shiite sect, who undergo training courses of between two
weeks and six months in duration,” RO added.
“The weapons that are exported are machine guns and handguns, in addition to
detonators, and [explosive] materials such as TNT and C-4. As for the rest of
the materials from which bombs are made, they are available in the local
market,” the former Hezbollah operative said.
“The Lebanese security services are aware of all these transactions, but they
cannot talk about them what with the collapse of the Lebanese state, and what
happened in the port of Beirut [the huge explosion last August] was a small
example of what Hezbollah owns inside Lebanon. The army, Interior Ministry,
customs service, ports and airport are all under the control of Hezbollah,” RO
said.
Ibrahim Al Moussawi, a Shiite member of the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, the
political wing of Hezbollah in the Lebanese parliament, told The Media Line that
accusations against Hezbollah of smuggling and trading in drugs are untrue,
saying, “What Saudi Arabia did is part of the campaign to starve the Lebanese
people in the service of American, Western, and Israeli interests. We do not
trade in drugs, and it is forbidden according to Sharia, and the
secretary-general of the party, Hassan Nasrallah, has denied these accusations
several times.”
He added, “This is nonsense and false accusations against the Lebanese
resistance. Saudi Arabia must tighten its security, but not at the expense of
the Lebanese people.”
Ibrahim Al-Tarshihi, head of the farmers and peasants’ association in Lebanon’s
Bekaa region, told local Lebanese media outlets that “Lebanese agricultural
production is innocent of the charge of exporting drugs to the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia.”
He added, “Lebanon does not have pomegranates to export. We have noticed for
several years that there are goods from several countries that are exported as
Lebanese goods. Perhaps Syria is the one who exported this shipment as
Lebanese.”
Badr Abdulaziz, a Bahraini political and security expert, told The Media Line
that Bahrain had several times “confiscated land shipments of Lebanese goods
containing weapons or drugs.
“There are dozens of [Bahraini Shiite] fighters whom Bahrain previously
announced that Hezbollah had trained in camps in Shebaa Farms or in the southern
suburbs of Beirut, but the Lebanese state did not respond to Bahrain or even the
Gulf states in this matter,” Abdulaziz said.
“The Saudi decision should have been taken a long time ago, and what Saudi
Arabia announced about 200 million [sic] narcotic tablets is but a small part of
what Hezbollah tried to smuggle,” he said.
“We all know that the Lebanese state is weak and that Hezbollah controls all the
important institutions in it, but the Gulf states cannot allow Lebanon to be a
source of drugs or weapons or a training ground for outlaws to destabilize
security and stability in the Gulf states,” Abdulaziz said.
“Previously, five or six shipments were seized coming from Lebanon, and this
shipment that Saudi Arabia has now seized is perhaps the largest. We in the Gulf
countries have not been harmed [by the import ban]. We have other sources to
compensate for the simple shortage of vegetables, fruits and other Lebanese
products, so the only loser is the Lebanese people,” the Bahraini analyst said.
“An investigation in Bahrain proved that the Lebanese Hezbollah group was
planning to try to smuggle weapons into Bahrain, which were seized on a bus
coming from Iraq carrying Bahraini Shiite visitors, and although the shipment
was coming from Iraq, Hezbollah was responsible for smuggling it,” Abdulaziz
said.
Muhammad al-Qubban, a Saudi security expert, told The Media Line, “Over the past
six years, Saudi Arabia has seized more than 600 million drug pills arriving in
shipments from Lebanon.”
“The decision of the Saudi authorities is a message to Lebanon, that the state,
and not political parties and militias in the country, is the responsible actor.
Saudi Arabia has informed the Lebanese authorities several times about the
smuggling of weapons and drugs from Beirut, but there was no response,” he said.
“Seventy-five percent of the shipments that Lebanon sends to the Gulf contain
drugs or weapons and other prohibited items. It is the responsibility of the
Lebanese authorities to inspect all containers before they leave Lebanon,”
Qubban said.
Why Beirut Beckons
Michael Young/Carnegia MEC/April 29/2021
Might the Arab states hand Lebanon over to Syria as compensation for distancing
itself from Iran?
Is there a way that major Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates, as well as other Arab states, can restore some of their influence
in Lebanon? The question may seem peculiar at a time when the Saudis seem to
have given up on the country, regarding it as being solidly held by Iran and its
local proxy Hezbollah.
If the Saudis and Emiratis seek to limit Iran’s sway in the region, then simply
abandoning Lebanon doesn’t represent a strategy. Nor does it mean taking
advantage of regional changes to try to contain Iran’s reach. The mechanisms of
Hezbollah’s control are slowly eroding in Lebanon. The party had advanced its
local agenda through the Lebanese state and a political class that saw any
confrontation with Hezbollah as an invitation to civil conflict and, therefore,
a threat to its own existence. Yet today the state is decomposing, the rifts in
the country’s political leadership appear to be irreconcilable, and Hezbollah is
already preparing to protect its own followers from the oncoming economic
catastrophe, a good sign that it has doubts about reconstituting the façade of
the state to its advantage.
If Lebanon cracks further, as it surely will, spaces will open up that Hezbollah
no longer controls. Wherever Iran has interfered in the Arab world—Syria, Yemen,
Iraq, and Lebanon—the results have been anarchy and disarray. The so-called
“resistance axis” is nothing more than an axis of failure and bankruptcy. The
temptation of the Saudis and the Emiratis may be to allow the whole rotten
edifice to disintegrate. However, that offers no certainty that they can shape
the aftermath, and is not how they have approached Syria, a country miles ahead
of Lebanon in its descent into the netherworld.
Perhaps that’s because the two countries realize that Iran and its allies are
better equipped to survive in chaos than are their enemies. Certainly, the
Emirati approach in Yemen has been to fill emerging vacuums with alternative
orders to better protect itself—whether by facilitating the creation of an
autonomous entity in the south, or by building military bases near, or settling
pro-Emirati forces in, the western coastal areas to guard access to the Bab
al-Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia is following suit. Having seen that it cannot
roll back the Houthis, it is now focused on overhauling its southern border.
In recent months, there has been a noticeable shift in the positions of Saudi
Arabia and the UAE toward Syria. The Emiratis reopened an embassy in Damascus in
2018, and there have been multiple signs recently of an Arab desire to return
Syria to the Arab League. The Saudis have taken a more cautious approach than
the UAE, Iraq, or Egypt, but ultimately the kingdom will go along with a
consensual decision to resume contacts with the regime of President Bashar
al-Assad. However, this raises an important question: What price will the Arab
states and Syria try to extract for such a resumption?
The Gulf states, feeling that Syria is exceptionally vulnerable—with
reconstruction costs estimated in 2019 at anywhere between $200 billion and $400
billion—will most probably demand that Syria downgrade its relationship with
Iran. Assad will not want to do so, but his options are limited. Few countries
are willing to give money to Syria while Assad remains in power, so he cannot be
choosy if he wants to initiate a reconstruction process. Nor will reducing
Syria’s ties with Tehran be easy, so extensive is Iranian power in the country,
reaching into the regime’s core security and intelligence institutions.
However, Assad does have options if he decides to recalibrate with Iran. He can
count on the backing of Russia, which also has extended its influence over
Syria’s military and security sectors. Moscow appears keener to stabilize Syria
within an Arab consensus than Iran, and has been instrumental in trying to
change Arab attitudes toward Damascus. The Syrian president also has an election
this year. While its democratic worth will be nil, his manufactured victory will
give the Syrian regime new momentum, as well as bogus legitimacy that he will
try to build upon. That begs another question: What will Assad demand in return
from the Arab states for going at least part of the way in meeting their
conditions with respect to Iran?
Here the answer may be worrisome for the Lebanese. What Assad may well ask for
is renewed influence in Lebanon. The structures of such influence will be
different compared to the pre-2005 period when the Syrian army was deployed in
the country. It’s difficult to imagine that Syria’s armed forces will return,
even if the over 1 million Syrians currently in Lebanon can be a step in that
direction. If Assad is guaranteed of naming a certain number of parliamentary
deputies, and the various Arab states compel their local allies to include
pro-Syrian politicians in their electoral lists, that may be another. At the
same time, if Syria, backed by the Arab states, also has a say in whom becomes
president, prime minister, and speaker of parliament, that could further whet
Assad’s appetite.
The Syrians could seek to anchor this through heightened collaboration with the
Lebanese army and intelligence services. While we may not see Syria soldiers in
Lebanon’s streets, what would prevent Syrian intelligence officers from being
present in the country alongside their Lebanese counterparts? The
Lebanese-Syrian Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation, and Coordination of May
1991, like the Lebanese-Syrian Defense and Security Pact of September 1991,
could legitimize such arrangements, with far-reaching consequences.
What would the Arab states gain from such a plan? First, they may well consider
greater Syrian control over Lebanon as a means of reducing Iran’s footprint in
both Syria and Lebanon. If that were to unlock Arab financial assistance for
Beirut, the Arab states might assume, it could silence Lebanese resistance to
any such scheme. Second, the Arab states could consider Syria’s restoration in
Lebanon as a way of stabilizing a chronically dysfunctional country, much as
Syria did after the end of the country’s civil war in 1990. And third, by
boosting Syria’s Arab bona fides through a heightened role for Damascus, the new
situation could facilitate an eventual settlement with Israel, preventing Iran’s
return, and alleviate tensions in the Levant while opening the door to wider
Arab-Israeli agreements.
Lebanon’s reprehensible abandonment would in no way constitute an obstacle. The
country has become such a headache for the Arab world that parking it under the
domination of a regional state poses no problems—as long as it’s an Arab state.
This would help explain why Hezbollah has been so adamant in its refusal to put
pressure on Gebran Bassil in the government-formation process. The party knows
the two prime candidates for the presidency next year are the Hezbollah-aligned
Bassil and Suleiman Franjieh, a close Assad ally. Weakening Bassil, Hezbollah
may feel, would only strengthen Franjieh and the Syrians’ hand in Lebanon,
ultimately at the party’s expense. So, while Hezbollah and Syria are allies
regionally, they are competitors in Lebanon and the party has no intention of
relinquishing what it gained after the Syrian withdrawal in 2005.
What worries Hezbollah and Iran is that the Arab states and Russia appear to be
on the same wavelength in Syria and Lebanon. Reconstituting the semblance of an
Arab order is desirable for them, as this would bring back some stability to
Syria and to a region that has suffered from a decade of volatility and
violence. The main driver leading to this situation, the Arabs and Russians
might agree, is a revisionist Iran that has exploited and exacerbated sectarian
and social divisions in Arab societies to advance its expansionist ambitions. In
the process, Tehran has accelerated the region’s ruin.
This explains the emerging fault line between Syria’s and Iran’s allies in
Lebanon. In this regard, one former parliamentarian described the tirade against
Bassil last week by a prominent Syrian ally, Elie al-Firzli, as a sign of things
to come. Likewise, the different paths adopted by the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and
the pro-Syrian Amal Movement with regard to President Michel Aoun and Bassil
reveal similar strains. Iran is feeling insecure about its stakes in the region.
Hezbollah and the Iranians are facing incessant Israeli attacks in Syria,
without any Russian support. Moscow is stitching together understandings over
Syria with regional powers on opposite sides of the Syrian question—Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, but also Qatar and Turkey. And the Astana process,
which had brought Iran into a tripartite negotiating format with Russia and
Turkey to address the Syrian situation, has fallen by the wayside.
The reason why all sides are unable to form a government in Lebanon is that
beyond the personal animosity between Bassil and Saad al-Hariri there lies a
deeper problem, namely that the nature of any government will have a bearing on
the regional balance. Aoun and Bassil are the only partners Hezbollah has in its
efforts to push back against Arab backing for a Syrian revival in Lebanon.
Therefore, the party will not side with Hariri against the president and his son
in law. This stalemate may last, and it appears that Hezbollah is now looking
toward the nuclear deal with Iran to consolidate its role at home. Ironically,
that is why it does not want Lebanon to fragment.
If this is indeed the thinking among the leading Arab states, then they should
be realistic. The Assad regime will almost certainly aim to pocket any advantage
it can secure in Lebanon, without surrendering much on Iran. The Syrians prefer
to position themselves midway between the Arab states, Russia, and Iran to play
all sides off against each other to their own benefit. In the coming months the
situation in Lebanon will ripen more as Aoun’s presidency begins to wind down
and everyone gets a better sense of where negotiations over the nuclear deal are
heading. With elections scheduled in Syria, Iran, and Lebanon in the coming two
years, the region is preparing for what could be a transformative period.
*Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the
views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily
reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 29-30/2021
Our warplanes can reach Iran, Israeli minister warns amid nuclear talks
Reuters/April 29, 2021
Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen said: “A bad deal will send the region
spiralling into war”
“Israel will not allow Iran to attain nuclear arms. Iran has no immunity
anywhere. Our planes can reach everywhere in the Middle East — and certainly
Iran,” he said
JERUSALEM: An Israeli cabinet minister sharpened his country’s warnings against
what it would deem a bad new nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, saying
war with Tehran would be sure to follow.
As President Joe Biden explores a possible US return to the 2015 deal to contain
Iran’s nuclear program that his predecessor Donald Trump abandoned, Israel has
stepped up calls for more sweeping curbs to be imposed on sensitive Iranian
technologies and projects. Iran, which this week resumed indirect talks with US
envoys in Vienna on reversing its retaliatory violations of the deal in exchange
for the removal of sanctions reimposed by Trump, has ruled out any further
limitations on Iranian actions. Reiterating Israel’s position that it does not
consider itself bound by the diplomacy, Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen said: “A
bad deal will send the region spiralling into war.”“Anyone seeking short-term
benefits should be mindful of the longer-term,” he told Reuters. “Israel will
not allow Iran to attain nuclear arms. Iran has no immunity anywhere. Our planes
can reach everywhere in the Middle East — and certainly Iran.”
Iran says its nuclear ambitions are peaceful.
Cohen said that in addition to denying Iran the means of enriching uranium and
developing ballistic missiles, world powers should make it stop “destabilising
other countries” and funding militants. The Vienna talks have been overshadowed
by what appeared to be mutual sabotage attacks on Israeli and Iranian ships, as
well as an explosion at Iran’s Natanz enrichment plant that Tehran blamed on
Israel. Cohen, in keeping with Israeli policy, declined all comment. Israel sent
senior delegates to Washington this week to discuss Iran with US counterparts.
The White House said the allies agreed on the “significant threat” posed by
Iran’s regional behavior. The Israeli ambassador to the United States, Gilad
Erdan, said the Biden administration would consult with Israel about any new
nuclear deal — the prospects for which he deemed hazy. “We assess, to our
regret, that the Iranians will refuse such a discussion,” he told Israel’s
public radio station Kan, alluding to Iran’s insistence on restoring the
original deal, which Trump called too limited in scope and duration. “But if it
emerges that we were mistaken, and the Americans succeed in securing a
discussion of a different, better deal, we will certainly be part of that
discussion. We made that clear and the (Biden) administration welcomes this, of
course.”
New French bill to boost online surveillance of extremists
The Arab
Weekly/April 29/2021
PARIS - France plans to strengthen its counter-terrorism laws by permitting the
use of algorithims to detect activity on extremist websites. Draft legislation
was submitted to President Emmanuel Macron and his government at a cabinet
meeting on Wednesday, after a wave of Islamist and Islamist-inspired attacks on
French soil in recent years, including last Friday. “The last nine attacks on
French soil were committed by individuals who were unknown to the security
services, who were not on a watchlist and were not suspected of being
radicalised,” Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin told France Inter radio. “That
should cause us to ask questions about the intelligence methods we’re using,”
Darmanin added. France enacted a counter-terrorism law in 2017 to replace a
state of emergency declared two years earlier following the attack on Paris by
extremist suicide bombers and gunmen. The 2017 law, which was subject to review
after four years, allowed security agencies to use algorithms to monitor
messaging apps, as well bolstering police surveillance measures such as ‘home
visits’ to individuals suspected of terrorism links and the restricting the
movement of people. The new bill would render those measures permanent and
extend the use of algorithims to websites. “Terrorists have changed the methods
of communication. We continue to be blind, monitoring phone lines that nobody
uses any more,” Darmanin said. In a news conference, Interior Minister Gerald
Darmanin said the text will strengthen French intelligence services’ power to
watch people’s online activities. Extremists “are using less and less phone
lines and more and more internet connections,” he said. One measure will extend
the use by French intelligence services of algorithms to track down extremists
online, a method already being trialed since 2015 to monitor messaging apps.
Darmanin said that using algorithms will notably enable intelligence services to
spot someone who has accessed extremist websites several times. The Tunisian
national who killed a police employee in a Paris commuter town five days ago had
watched religious videos glorifying acts of terrorism just before carrying out
his attack, the anti-terrorism prosecutor has said. The bill would give security
agencies more power to watch over and limit the movements of high-risk
individuals after release from jail for two years rather than one. Furthermore,
it would give judges the authority to impose follow-up measures, including
psychiatric care, on prisoners who served at least five years for
terrorism-related offences in an effort to reduce repeat offences.
Zarif tests the waters in Oman for dialogue
with Saudis
The Arab Weekly/April 29/2021
MUSCAT, Oman - Iranian Foreign Minister Muhammad Javad Zarif included the
sultanate of Oman in his regional tour that has taken in Qatar and Iraq, amid
reports that efforts are being made to bridge the divide between long-standing
rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia and launch a dialogue between them.
The three capitals visited by Zarif, Doha, Baghdad and Muscat, share good
relations with Tehran. Oman is well-experienced in brokering mediation between
parties with vastly divergent views.Despite the lack of authoritative
information from official sources, Middle East analysts have linked Zarif’s
regional tour to efforts aimed at launching talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The Financial Times went so far as to say that such talks had already begun at a
low level. It said a meeting took place earlier this month in Baghdad between
officials from the two countries. Sources did not rule out that the visit made
by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan on Monday to Doha was related
to the diplomatic momentum behind the quest for Saudi-Iranian dialogue,
especially since it came on the heels of a similar visit by Zarif to Qatar. On
Wednesday, Zarif was received in Muscat by Omani Deputy Prime Minister for
Cabinet Affairs Fahd bin Mahmoud Al Said, along with Minister of Foreign Affairs
Badr al-Busaidi. The Omani News Agency (ONA) said the meeting brought about “a
review of the existing bilateral relations between the two friendly countries
and ways to bolster them in several fields”.
The meeting also discussed matters of “mutual interest” and the two parties
“exchanged views on developments on the regional and international arenas and
the efforts aimed at promoting security and stability in the region in order to
serve the interests of its peoples and strengthen international cooperation ,”
added ONA. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh had described
Zarif’s regional tour as being aimed at “developing bilateral relations and
following up on regional talks and beyond.”Saudi Arabia and Iran have not
confirmed that their representatives held talks in Baghdad, but hints have
intensified about their willingness to start a dialogue. “Iran is a neighbouring
country and all we aspire for is a good and special relationship with Iran,”
said Prince Mohammed. “We do not want Iran’s situation to be difficult. On the
contrary, we want Iran to grow… and to push the region and the world towards
prosperity,” he added. In what was considered an indication of efforts being
made to start a dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran, the crown prince said
Tuesday, “We are working with our partners to deal with this problem and we hope
to overcome it and have a good and positive relationship with everyone.”Riyadh
severed diplomatic relations with Tehran in January 2016 following attacks on
its embassy in the Iranian capital and its consulate in Mashhad by violent
“demonstrators” protesting the kingdom’s execution of the Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr.
Iran has previously rejected Saudi calls to include Riyadh and its regional
allies in any international talks about Iran’s nuclear programme. But it has
repeatedly expressed its willingness to carry out a regional dialogue, which
observers say Tehran wants tailored to its wishes and not to address the core
issues of concern to the countries of the region. Such conditions have till now
limited the chances of any real dialogue paving the way for reconciliation
between Iran and its neighbours, analysts say.
Blinken warns off Turkey from buying more
Russian missiles
The Arab Weekly/April 29/2021
WASHINGTON--US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Turkey and all US allies
on Wednesday should refrain from making further purchases of Russian weaponry,
threatening the possibility of more sanctions.
Frayed relations between NATO allies Turkey and the United States were further
tested over the weekend after President Joe Biden recognised the 1915 Armenian
massacres as genocide, infuriating Ankara. Speaking at a virtual event at
Washington’s Foreign Press Centre, Blinken said that, given Biden’s
long-standing views on the Armenia issue, his decision was not and should not
have been a surprise. Blinken also reiterated that Turkey was a critical NATO
ally for Washington and said he hoped the two sides can resolve their issues.
Nevertheless, he also warned Ankara against further purchases from Russia.
Turkey has said it is in talks with Moscow on procuring a second batch of S-400
ground to air missiles. “It’s also very important going forward that Turkey, and
for that matter all US allies and partners, avoid future purchases of Russian
weaponry, including additional S-400s,” Blinken said. “Any significant
transactions with Russian defence entities, again, could be subject to the law,
to CAATSA, and that’s separate from and in addition to the sanctions that have
already been imposed,” he said, referring to Countering America’s Adversaries
through Sanctions Act, which is designed to dissuade countries from buying
military equipment from Russia. Blinken also said the air defence system sales
provided Russia with “revenue, access and influence.”US-Turkish relations have
been strained over issues ranging from Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 air
defence systems, over which it has been the target of US sanctions, to policy
differences on Syria, human rights and a US court case targeting Turkey’s
majority state-owned Halkbank. Washington in December imposed sanctions on
Turkey over its purchase of Russian air defences, while Ankara has been angered
that the United States has armed Kurdish YPG fighters in Syria and not
extradited a US-based cleric Turkey accuses of orchestrating a 2016 coup
attempt. On Friday, Biden, in his first call to the Turkish president since
taking office in January, told Erdogan about his decision on Armenians. The US
president had once described Erdogan as “an autocrat”. Blinken said the two
leaders had a “good conversation” and that Biden was looking forward to meeting
Erdogan in June on the sidelines of the NATO summit. Turkey’s presidential
spokesman said on Sunday Biden’s declaration was “simply outrageous” and Turkey
would respond over the coming months.
Lenderking embarks on new US push for
de-escalation in Yemen
The Arab Weekly/April 29/2021
WASHINGTON--US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking will travel to Saudi
Arabia and Oman on Thursday for talks with government officials about efforts to
end Yemen’s civil war, the US State Department said in a statement. Lenderking’s
“discussions will focus on ensuring the regular and unimpeded delivery of
commodities and humanitarian assistance throughout Yemen, promoting a lasting
ceasefire and transitioning the parties to a political process,” the statement
said. Lenderking “will build on the international consensus to halt the Houthi
offensive on Marib, which only worsens the humanitarian crisis threatening the
Yemeni people,” the State Department added. Last week, Lenderking called the
battle for the Marib region the single biggest threat to peace efforts. He said
Iran’s support for the Houthi movement was “quite significant and it’s
lethal.”The battle for Yemen’s gas-rich Marib region is complicating US efforts
to reach a ceasefire needed to end the war. Since taking office in January, US
President Joe Biden has made Yemen a priority and appointed Lenderking to help
revive stalled UN efforts to end a conflict widely seen as a proxy war between
rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia proposed a comprehensive ceasefire
and a return to the negotiating table, a proposal that the Houthis immediately
rejected, saying a blockade on the country must first be lifted. Lenderking’s
visit to the region comes one day after Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif met
Houthi militias’ spokesman Mohammed Abdul Al Houthi in Oman on Wednesday. During
that meeting, Zarif reiterated Tehran’s support for a ceasefire and a return to
talks to end the country’s long conflict, the Iranian foreign ministry said. On
Tuesday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz called on the
Houthis to stop fighting and start peace negotiations. The Houthi spokesman and
other leaders of the Iran-aligned militias live in exile in Muscat. Yemen’s
conflict began after the Iran-aligned Houthi group ousted the country’s
government from the capital Sana’a, prompting a Saudi Arabia-led military
coalition to intervene in Yemen in 2015. The civil war has created what the
United Nations calls the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with some 80 percent
of the country’s population of 29 million requiring aid and 13 million facing
starvation.
Riyadh to close eight Turkish schools,
likely ruffle Ankara
The Arab Weekly/April 29/2021
ISTANBUL--Saudi Arabia is set to close eight Turkish schools at the end of the
current academic year, Turkey’s Anadolu state news agency reported Wednesday, a
decision that could anger Ankara as it tries to improve ties with Riyadh.
Turkey’s education ministry has been informed by the Saudi authorities that the
eight schools will have to close at the end of the current school year,
according to Anadolu. The eight establishments targeted have a total 2,256
pupils, it added. Turkey’s foreign ministry offered no comment. Last month the
education ministry said there were 26 Turkish schools in Saudi Arabia. The
closure of eight of them risks hiking tensions between the two countries.
Relations between the two largely Muslim nations have plummeted in recent years,
especially over the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the country’s
consulate in Istanbul in 2018. Ankara used the case politically and
diplomatically to pressure Saudi Arabia. In recent months, however, Turkey has
made efforts to mend its relations with regional rivals across the Middle East,
including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. The Saudis and the
Egyptians have been cautious about fully embracing the Turks, preferring to
await tangible changes of policy that would go beyond declarations of intent. A
key issue remains Turkey’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and its ambitions in
the region. While Ankara still maintains a military base in Doha, Riyadh has in
recent weeks established closer military cooperation with Turkey’s arch-enemy
Greece to protect itself against missiles and drones from Yemen’s Houthis.
NATO Says Afghanistan Withdrawal Has Begun
Agence France Presse/April 29/2021
NATO has started the withdrawal of its mission from Afghanistan following a
decision by President Joe Biden to bring U.S. forces home, an alliance official
said Thursday. "NATO Allies decided in mid-April to start the withdrawal of
Resolute Support Mission forces by May 1 and this withdrawal has begun. This
will be an orderly, coordinated, and deliberate process," a NATO official told
AFP. Members of the U.S.-backed alliance agreed this month to wrap up their
9,600-strong mission in Afghanistan after Biden made the call to end
Washington's longest war. The decision -- which delayed by several months a
deadline agreed by former U.S. leader Donald Trump -- came despite fears it
could allow the Taliban to regain power in the country. The NATO official said
the safety of the alliance's troops "will be a top priority every step of the
way, and we are taking all necessary measures to keep our personnel from harm".
"Any Taliban attacks during the withdrawal will be met with a forceful response.
We plan to have our withdrawal completed within a few months," the official
said, refusing to give any further details on the timeline. Biden said the US
withdrawal would be completed by September 11, the twentieth anniversary of the
9/11 attacks on America that sparked its military involvement in
Afghanistan.Germany's defense ministry has said it planned to get its 1,300
troops out of the country by early July.
- 'New chapter' -
NATO's training and support mission, which includes around 2,500 US troops and
relies heavily on Washington's military assets, has personnel from 36 alliance
member nations and partner countries. The US has said it is temporarily
deploying extra troops to protect international forces as they withdraw and has
prolonged the presence of an aircraft carrier in the region to support the
pull-out. Trump struck a deal with the Taliban last year that was meant to see
US and allied troops leave Afghanistan by the start of May provided attacks
decreased and peace talks progressed. Biden decided to call time on the
two-decade deployment of troops despite insurgent violence flaring and
negotiations between the Taliban and the Kabul government stalling. The US
insists it has achieved its aim of stopping Afghanistan serving as a "haven for
terrorists" after uprooting Al-Qaeda networks, and says it risks a never-ending
military involvement if it does not pull out. Top US general Mark Milley said
Wednesday it was not possible to predict Afghanistan's fate after the withdrawal
and warned of a "worst-case" outcome of a government collapse. But along with
its fellow NATO members, Washington insists it remains committed to Afghanistan.
"NATO Allies and partners will continue to stand with Afghanistan, its people,
and its institutions in promoting security and upholding the gains of the last
20 years," the alliance said in a statement last month. "Withdrawing our troops
does not mean ending our relationship with Afghanistan. Rather, this will be the
start of a new chapter."
Palestinian Leaders Weigh Delay of Long-Awaited Vote
Agence France Presse/April 29/2021
Palestinian leaders were set to decide Thursday whether to hold elections next
month as scheduled or call a delay that could trigger further frustration in a
divided society which last voted in 2006. Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied
West Bank and blockaded Gaza Strip have voiced hope that the polls could help
restore credibility and heal rifts. Fatah, which controls the West Bank-based
Palestinian Authority, reached an agreement with its long-standing rival Hamas,
the Islamists who control Gaza, to hold legislative polls on May 22 and a
presidential vote on July 31. The official Wafa news agency said Thursday that
PA president Mahmud Abbas, also Fatah's leader, would chair a meeting "tonight
in Ramallah that includes all the political factions to discuss the latest with
the elections and whether they should be held or cancelled.""A final decision"
would be made before Friday, Wafa reported. Hamas said Wednesday it "rejects any
attempt to postpone the elections." Hamas won a surprise victory in the 2006
elections but it was not recognized by Abbas. The Islamists took power in Gaza
the following year in a week of bloody clashes. Abbas critics charge that he is
seeking to buy time as Fatah's prospects have been threatened by splinter
factions, including one led by a nephew of iconic Palestinian leader Yasser
Arafat and another by a powerful, exiled former Fatah security chief, Mohammed
Dahlan."If Abbas delays elections, we will start with demonstrations," Daoud Abu
Libdeh, a candidate with Dahlan's "Future" faction, told AFP in Jerusalem.
- Jerusalem -
Palestinians insist on the right to hold elections in Israeli-annexed east
Jerusalem, which Palestinians claim as the capital of their future state. During
the last Palestinian election, east Jerusalem residents cast ballots on the
outskirts of the city and thousands voted in post offices, a symbolic move
agreed to by Israel. Israel, which now bans all Palestinian political activity
across Jerusalem, has not commented on whether it would allow voting in the
city. In a meeting with EU diplomats this week, Israeli foreign ministry
political director Alon Bar said elections were "an internal Palestinian issue,
and that Israel has no intention of intervening in them nor preventing
them."Wafa quoted top official Fatah Mahmoud Aloul as saying that holding
elections that excluded Jerusalem would be "treason."Palestinian journalist and
Abbas critic Nadia Harhash, a candidate on the "Together We Can" electoral list,
said using Jerusalem as an excuse for postponement "is definitely not a smart
move for the PA." She argued it would give Israel de facto veto power over the
Palestinian right to vote. Hamas said a delay amount to a surrender to "the
(Israeli) occupation's veto." Tensions in Jerusalem surged at the weekend as
Palestinians clashed with Israeli police over the right to gather in an Old City
plaza after evening Ramadan prayers. Following several days of unrest that left
dozens injured, Israeli police removed the barricades blocking Damascus Gate,
allowing Palestinians to resume their gatherings. Hamas said such "heroic
victories" should encourage Palestinians to press ahead with Jerusalem voting.
Factions
The elections are seen in part as a unified effort by Hamas and Fatah to bolster
international faith in Palestinian governance ahead of possible renewed U.S.-led
diplomacy under President Joe Biden, after four years of Donald Trump that saw
Washington endorse key Israeli objectives. Harhash argued that Abbas had hoped
the elections would allow Fatah and Hamas to continue sharing power, but felt
threatened by the emergence of strong splinter factions and the rise of new
political groups critical of his leadership. The main challenges to Abbas
include the "Freedom list" headed by Arafat's nephew Nasser al-Kidwa, which has
been endorsed by Marwan Barghouti, who is serving multiple life sentences in
Israel prison. Dahlan, who poses another threat, has been credited with bringing
coronavirus vaccines into Gaza and distributing financial aid across the
enclave, as well as in the West Bank.
India Covid Deaths Climb Again as Global Aid Flown In
Agence France Presse/April 29/2021
India's coronavirus disaster deepened on Thursday with the daily death toll
climbing above 3,600 as dozens of countries sent urgent medical aid to help
tackle the spiraling crisis. The United States and several European nations are
starting to ease restrictions as vaccination campaigns pick up, but the pandemic
is still worsening in many parts of the world. The World Health Organization
issued a stark warning to European nations Thursday that relaxing Covid measures
could spark a "perfect storm" allowing cases to spiral -- as in India. "It is
very important to realize that the situation in India can happen anywhere," said
WHO Europe chief Hans Kluge. Death and infection rates have been rising
exponentially throughout April in India, which experts blame in part on mass
gatherings. On Thursday, the south Asian nation reported 3,645 deaths over the
past 24 hours, while confirmed new cases hit a new global record with more than
379,000. The official numbers are widely believed to be far below the reality.
The pandemic has claimed at least 3.1 million lives around the world, with India
accounting for more than 200,000 fatalities. In many Indian cities, hospitals
are running out of beds as relatives of the sick crowd jostle for medicines and
oxygen cylinders. "We rushed to multiple hospitals, but were denied admission
everywhere," said the son of an 84-year-old woman who died at home this week
after a desperate search for a hospital bed and oxygen in Kolkata, capital of
West Bengal state.
The Indian government will open vaccinations to all adults from Saturday. It had
previously limited shots to the over-45s and certain other groups. Several
states have warned, however, they do not have sufficient vaccine stocks and the
expanded rollout is threatened by administrative bickering, confusion over
prices and technical glitches on the government's digital vaccine platform.
'Unprecedented situation'
More than 40 countries have committed to sending India vital medical aid,
particularly oxygen amid a severe shortage, Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan
Shringla said. The supplies include almost 550 oxygen-generating plants, more
than 4,000 oxygen concentrators, 10,000 oxygen cylinders as well as 17 cryogenic
tankers. Hundreds of thousands of doses of Covid-19 treatment drugs as well as
raw materials to produce vaccines were also being sent. "It is an unprecedented
situation... many countries have come forward on their own to offer us
assistance," Shringla said. The United States is dispatching more than $100
million in supplies, with a flight due to arrive on Friday carrying including
oxygen concentrators, cylinders, and other oxygen-generating equipment. The WHO
has said the virus variant feared to be contributing to the catastrophe on the
sub-continent has now been found in more than a dozen countries. But the body
has stopped short of saying it is more transmissible, more deadly or able to
dodge vaccines. Africa's disease control body also put out a warning that the
continent could be overrun by infections if urgent measures are not taken to
avert a similar disaster to India's."We cannot be indifferent to what is
happening in India. We must act now, decisively and collectively," said John
Nkengasong, director of the Africa CDC.
Lollipop tests
In the United States, President Joe Biden on Wednesday hailed his nation's
inoculation progra as one of "the greatest logistical achievements" in American
history. More than 234 million doses had been administered by Wednesday in the
United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control. Countries are
looking to do the same in Europe, and Germany hit a new record in daily
vaccinations with 1.1 million people, Health Minister Jens Spahn said. That
meant Europe's biggest economy for the first time vaccinated more than one
percent of its population in 24 hours. The EU also inched further toward a Covid
certificate for travel on Thursday, after the EU parliament approved the
position it would take in talks with the executive branch and the bloc's
members. And in France, where the rollout has stuttered, President Emmanuel
Macron set out a timetable for a gradual lifting of Covid curbs from May 19 to
the end of June. Amid concern that virus variants may spread quickly among
youngsters, a lollipop-shaped test is being rolled out in some Austrian
kindergartens. Burgenland province said it had already ordered 35,000 lollipop
tests after a successful pilot scheme. "Put the test in the mouth, suck for 90
seconds, dip the test in the container, wait 15 minutes, check the result," the
instructions read.
Israel is not prepared for the Palestinian
elections - editorial
The truth is that the blame lies with the PA and Hamas. The problem for Israel
is it allowed the slouching toward elections to occur without bothering to
consider the various train-wreck outcomes.
Jerusalem Post editorial/April 29/2021
Palestinian elections scheduled for May could be postponed; a final decision is
expected from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday evening.
If this happens, blame will be cast on Israel, and the excuse will be a refusal
by the government to allow Palestinians to vote in east Jerusalem.
The truth is that the blame lies with the PA and Hamas. They have prevented
Palestinians from having any real say in their affairs for a decade and a half,
ever since the last election – which saw Hamas win – was held in 2006.
The problem for Israel is that it has allowed the slouching toward elections to
occur without bothering to consider the various train-wreck outcomes. What if
the elections go ahead and Hamas wins? Would this lead to a repeat scenario of
2006, or would the PA have a civil conflict?
Hamas cannot be allowed to come to power in Ramallah, a move that would present
an inevitable avenue to more conflict. This is a multisided conflict because
Hamas not only wants to eradicate Israel but also wants to suppress
Palestinians. Many Fatah officials have been tough on Hamas, and Hamas will want
revenge. On the other hand, Israel has not appeared to really care about the
outcome. While quietly admitting that a Fatah failure in the elections could
hurt Israel, Jerusalem has made an effort not to interfere. Clearly, if Israel
is seen to favor one side, that side may do worse.
But what happened to the possibility of creating some political capital from the
recent Abraham Accords? Why didn’t the accords help new winds of peace blow in
the West Bank? Rumors over the last year have indicated that Mohammad Dahlan,
the former Fatah strongman in Gaza, has become close to Abu Dhabi, and there are
hints he could seek a return to leadership.
Unsurprisingly, Hamas wants the elections to continue. It is unified in Gaza.
It’s unclear if Fatah would even be allowed to campaign there. This presents a
strange scenario in which a divided Fatah might go to elections knowing it can
lose.
The elephant in the room here is not just the potential for chaos in the PA, but
Israel’s own lack of a government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has
supported inertia and managing the conflict with the Palestinians, as opposed to
actually initiating anything. He believes the status quo works in Israel’s favor.
According to this thinking, a divided PA and leadership mean that, in the long
term, Israel is not confronted with a new intifada or international pressure.
Israel has succeeded, for instance, in neutralizing Palestinian Islamic Jihad
threats from Gaza, while maintaining a semblance of quiet with Hamas – shattered
this week by rocket fire from Gaza. But in general, the security situation in
the West Bank has been good.
Recent clashes in Jerusalem, however, show how things can spiral out of control.
The mixed messages Palestinians received, with the installation and removal of
barriers at Damascus Gate and clashes with police, leave many wondering what is
going on. Ramadan is always a sensitive time.
Israel has a duty to protect its citizens from the kind of “TikTok” attacks that
were filmed showing Arab youths attacking religious Jews. However, there appears
to be no long-term vision in Jerusalem on this issue. Netanyahu is distracted by
his failure to form a government. In that sense, Israel also remains stuck in a
reality of continued coalition instability. This almost makes it seem that
Fatah’s internal political chaos and Israel’s internal chaos are symbiotic –
which allows Hamas and other extremists to make inroads.
The Jewish state needs to have a strategy with the Palestinians. Ignoring them
hasn’t worked. “Managing the conflict” brings only temporary security but not
any long-term conceptual change. If Israel is blamed for preventing the
Palestinian elections, it will not be helpful in the country’s attempt to create
a more positive image in Europe and throughout the region. This doesn’t mean
that Israel needs to let voting take place in east Jerusalem, but it does need
to hold serious discussions about the issue. With no functioning government,
that does not seem likely to happen anytime soon.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources published on April
29-30/2021
Biden's first 100 days a rousing success by Trump's own measures - opinion
Douglas Bloomflield/Jerusalem Post/April 29/2021
Biden is not the best president (yet), but Republicans and Trump are working
hard to make it seem like he is.
By DOUGLAS BLOOMFIELD APRIL 28, 2021 20:35
By a standard set by former US president Donald Trump himself, Joe Biden’s first
100 days have been a great achievement. The disgraced former chief executive
liked to measure his success by the rising Dow Jones averages, taking credit
every time they set a new record (and ignoring the drops, of course).
You may remember that Trump predicted that if Biden beat him, “there will be a
market crash the likes of which has not been seen before!” Forbes magazine
reported that a Biden boom began the day Trump lost and the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ
have been soaring ever since, easily exceeding Trump’s first 100 days. CNBC
called it “unprecedented growth.”
Biden ran on two basic promises: fighting the coronavirus and repairing the
economy. He understood what his predecessor apparently could not; that the two
are inextricably linked.
He has also restored dignity, compassion, sanity and civility to the office.
That seems to trouble Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn. A chronic tweeter in
the Trump tradition, Cornyn has suggested there must be something wrong with
Biden because he doesn’t tweet as incessantly as his predecessor.
“Is he really in charge?” the senator tweeted.
The San Antonio Current said Cornyn “tweets a lot of exceedingly stupid shit.”
Does Cornyn really think Trump’s incessant tweeting of lies, grievances and
insults was an admirable quality to be emulated? As Biden was preparing to give
his first presidential address to a joint session of Congress this week, House
Republicans were holding their annual policy retreat in Orlando, which is 172
miles from Mar-a-Lago. Guess who wasn’t invited. But his specter hung over the
gathering.
Trump deserves credit for launching Operation Warp Speed to develop a COVID
vaccine, but tragically he lost interest too early, bungled the development and
spread dangerous mistrust of any vaccine (suggesting Lysol injections didn’t
help). He told Bob Woodward that he lied about the seriousness of the threat
because he didn’t want to “panic” people. Public health experts report the
resistance to vaccinations is strongest among Trump voters.
Instead of leading the nation’s fight to cure the pandemic, he attacked the
integrity of scientists and local leaders calling for a tough response; he
feared the truth would harm his reelection chances. By contrast, Biden took the
opposite approach, even wearing a mask in public, which Trump refused because he
feared it would make him look like a sissy.
Trump has been the sorest of sore losers, and he has been obsessed with
reversing his election loss and undermining public confidence in American
democracy and the electoral system.
With Trump’s blessing, even urging, Republican legislators and governors in red
states across the country are changing voting laws to make them less democratic
out of fear their states might be more Democratic (note the capitalization). At
the same time, their party in the Congress is mounting solid opposition to voter
access and campaign finance and ethics reform legislation.
The last thing Republicans want to see is an impartial investigation of the
January 6 insurrection. Republican leaders in the House and Senate prefer to
pretend it never happened. Instead, they demand probes of Black Lives Matter and
the almost mythological Antifa. Lone among Republican leaders is Rep. Liz
Cheney, who many colleagues consider a pariah for having voted to impeach Trump,
who is calling for a narrowly focused commission on the attempted coup.
THE LINCOLN PROJECT tweeted, “The GOP has introduced 81 bills in 34 states to
oppose rioting. Yet they don’t want to investigate an insurrection.”
Biden’s next big project is a $2 trillion infrastructure plan. Trump talked
about infrastructure frequently but never produced a serious proposal.
Republicans say they might consider a narrowly defined bill at a fraction of the
price, but so far they’ve offered no details or any indications they’d even
support their own bill. Biden has proposed raising taxes on the wealthiest
Americans to pay for his plan, and Republicans are screaming “socialism.”
Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, a 2024 presidential wannabe, said
raising taxes on the super-rich to pay for infrastructure and social programs is
“socialism” because it constitutes redistribution of wealth.
Republicans are still decrying Social Security 85 years after it was enacted and
trying to repeal it through privatization. That’s not the only socialist project
they oppose.
President Harry Truman once said socialism is what Republicans call social
security, public power, farm price supports, federal bank deposit insurance,
free and independent labor organizations and “almost anything that helps all the
people.”
Former labor secretary Robert Reich has written, “America is a hotbed of
socialism... for the rich.” That means federal bailouts, tax credits, subsidies
and tax cuts for big corporations but “harsh capitalism” for their workers, who
often got layoffs while the bosses got bonuses, were left “twisting in the
wind.”
Republican leaders are fond of calling Biden a captive of the progressives, but
that doesn’t hold much water since the progressives in his party are bitterly
complaining he is ignoring them.
Polls show Biden’s approval rating is in the mid-50s percent range, compared to
Trump’s, which was under water his entire term.
Biden’s handling of the pandemic and economic recovery enjoys bipartisan support
at the grassroots, despite solid opposition by congressional Republicans whose
mantra is “Just say no.” They firmly refuse to cooperate with Biden and then
accuse him of breaking his promise of bipartisanship.
Republicans are also saying no to ethics legislation requiring the release of
presidential tax returns and banning presidents from channeling government funds
to their private businesses.
Republicans might have unanimously opposed Biden’s economic stimulus plan that
included $1,400 checks for millions of Americans, but their constituents like
it, which may explain why some shameless politicians like Sen. Roger Wicker
(R-Mississippi), Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Florida) and Rep. Madison Cawthorn
(R-North Carolina) who voted no are taking credit anyway.
Letting Biden and Democrats fight the pandemic and lead the economic recovery on
their own, Republicans are turning their focus the culture wars issues such as
immigration, LGBQT rights, abortion, bashing more holes in the church-state
separation wall, guns and voter suppression.
Joe Biden is not another FDR, as pundits and critics like to tell us. He may not
be the best president in history (yet), although Republicans and Donald Trump
are working overtime to make it seem he is.
The ramifications of a US return to
the 2015 Iran deal - opinion
Efraim Inbar and Eran Lirman/Jerusalem Post /April 29/2021
Washington will cast a dark shadow over Israel’s
status as a key ally.
The US is keen to return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran (the JCPOA) and is
likely to do so even though Iran is playing “hard to get.” (This assumes that
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indeed wants to renew the accord from 2015 in order to
obtain sanctions relief).
The Biden administration’s declared intention of reaching a “better and longer
lasting” follow-up agreement with Iran (focused on more effective inspections
and Iran’s regional mischief and ballistic missiles) will be null and void if
Iranian demands for full sanctions relief are met by the US. Such a concession
would leave the US without any real leverage on Iran.Iran certainly will attempt
to obtain an American commitment to prevent Israeli attacks on Iran, in line
with Western commitment in the 2015 accord not to sabotage Iran’s nuclear
facilities. Thus far, Washington has refrained from publicly criticizing Israel
for its alleged attacks on Iranian targets. But if Washington agrees with Iran
on a return to the JCPOA, Israel will be put in a difficult position. Does it
continue covert action aimed at slowing the Iranian nuclear project, against the
wishes of the Biden administration? And if covert operations exhaust themselves,
will Israel risk conflict with the US by directly attacking Iranian nuclear
facilities?
Even if the lifting of sanctions gives the Iranian economy only a gradual boost,
Tehran’s position in the Middle East will be significantly strengthened and its
aggressive behavior across the region will intensify – as it did after the 2015
accord was signed.
Worst of all, an American return to the 2015 agreement in defiance of Israel’s
concerns on an issue that is vital to its security will cast a dark shadow over
Israel’s status as a key American ally in the Middle East. And it would be wrong
to assume that any “compensation” offered to Israel by the US will include
armaments that will improve the attack capability of Israel against Iranian
nuclear facilities.
Under these circumstances, Israel’s entente against Iran with the United Arab
Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia may intensify. On the other hand, it also is
possible that the Gulf Arabs will bandwagon with Iran when they see America
withdrawing from the region and Israel’s hands tied by the US. The Biden
administration clearly is less committed to the “Abraham Accords” than its
predecessor. The seeds of a Saudi Arabia-Iran dialogue, brokered by Iraq,
already are evident.
There also are question marks about the future of ties between Israel and
Azerbaijan, a country in which Israel has important strategic assets. However,
Baku is growing closer to Ankara, and this could lead Azerbaijan to adopt a less
friendly approach toward Israel, especially if the US disregards Israel. Such a
weakening of Israel’s strategic status, alongside the Biden administration’s
friendlier approach to the Palestinians, may increase the latter’s demands on
Israel. This could be accompanied by Palestinian violence.
IN THE FACE of these worrying trends, the following matters should be uppermost
in Israel’s mind:
• Israel must unapologetically explain its diplomatic and security stance and
equip its friends with clear talking points – that a return to the 2015
agreement is not (only) a threat to Israel, but will shorten the time for an
Iran nuclear breakout and precipitate nuclear-weapons proliferation across the
Mideast, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt; a danger to the entire world.
• It is vital to preserve Israel’s freedom of action. A resolute Israeli
position, backed by action against the Iranian nuclear project that threatens to
cause nuclear proliferation throughout the Middle East will strengthen the
Abraham Accords and prevent Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states from moving closer
to Iran. Speaking out loudly in opposition to renewal of the JCPOA is an element
in maintaining Israel’s freedom of action and deterrent ability. It is important
to do so now, in real time.
• Jerusalem needs to prepare for heightened tensions with Washington and to
attempt to temper this through diplomatic efforts in Congress, in the Jewish
community, and with friendly groups in the US. Israel’s stance against the
nuclear agreement still can receive considerable sympathy in the US.
• It is critical that these messages are conveyed by senior professional
echelons, without partisan political messaging – Israeli or American. Even if
there are disagreements with the Biden administration, the possibility of a
US-Israel rift must be avoided.
• Israel should be prepared to defend itself against Iranian missile attacks
from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
• Iran wants to surround Israel with missile bases. In this context, Jordan is
likely to be a target for Iranian subversion. Strategically, Jordan is Israel’s
“soft underbelly.” Therefore, Jerusalem must do what it can to help maintain the
stability of Jordan.
Indeed, it will take a great deal of sophistication and skill to overcome the
difficult situation in which Israel finds itself.
Efraim Inbar is president and Dr. Col. (Res.) Eran Lerman is vice-president of
the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
F-35: The UAE’s Lightning or a Lemon?
Andrew E. Harrod/International Policy Digest/April 29/2021
President Joe Biden on April 13 approved a $23 billion arms sale to the United
Arab Emirates that his predecessor Donald Trump initiated, including the sale of
50 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. While the deal makes strategic sense, with the
F-35 the UAE has joined a wider debate over this stealth aircraft.
The arms deal buttressed Trump’s Abraham Accords, which opened official
relations between Israel and the UAE. For Israel and the UAE, noted Middle East
expert Walid Phares, “Israel will have access to a giant economy in the Gulf – a
dream come true – and a partnership with the most advanced Arab country. The UAE
will have access to Israel’s advanced technology, from agriculture to [its]
military…cooperation will be a game changer.” The two countries face common
threats like Iran and Sunni extremists, and some are hoping that the F-35 will
contribute particularly to UAE’s defense against Iran in the region. Unconfirmed
reports that three Israeli F-35s in 2018 flew over Tehran without detection by
Iranian air defenses are particularly enticing in this respect.
Yet the F-35 itself is highly controversial. Some have praised the F-35s
advanced capabilities like stealth radar evasion capabilities as a necessary
counter to sophisticated capabilities of adversaries like China and Russia. Yet
problems have plagued the F-35 since its development began in 2001, such that
Georgetown University professor and army paratrooper veteran Sean McFate
recently damned the F-35 as “obsolete junk” and a “flying lemon.”
For F-35 critics like McFate and Dan Grazier, the Jack Shanahan Fellow at the
Project on Government Oversight, sticker shock alone raises alarm. “The F-35 is
the most expensive weapon in history, with a projected lifetime cost of $1.7
trillion,” McFate has noted while the F-35 has hourly flying costs of about
$44,000, although some see these costs decreasing over time. By comparison,
older planes the F-35 is supposed to replace in the American military, like the
A-10 and F-16, fly for about $20,000 per hour. As House Armed Services Committee
Chairman Adam Smith (D-WA) recently noted, F-35 “sustainment costs are brutal,”
which makes it unlikely the Pentagon will purchase 1,763 F-35s in the future.
As Time magazine’s Mark Thompson observed in 2013, these F-35s were supposed to
serve in various variants for the Air Force, Marines, and Navy. This “flying
Swiss Army knife” would be a multirole aircraft that could accomplish diverse
missions like air-to-air fighting, bombing, and close air support. The resulting
airplane was a “real-life example of the adage that a camel is a horse designed
by a committee.
A U.S. Air Force A-10 flying over Afghanistan. (Matthew Bruch/U.S. Air Force)
McFate has noted that the venerable A-10, introduced into service in 1977,
remains the king of close air support. Depending on the variant, Grazier has
observed, the F-35 carries only 182-220 rounds for its 25-millimeter cannon,
while the A-10 carries over 1,100 shells for its 30-millimeter gun. Unlike the
A-10, the “F-35 cannot maneuver adequately at the slow speeds that searching for
concealed and camouflaged targets requires,” and, “completely unarmored and
highly flammable,” the F-35 is vulnerable to small arms fire.
McFate also marvels that the “F-35 cannot dogfight, the crux of any fighter
jet.” A 2015 mock dogfight between an F-35 and an F-16 over the Pacific Ocean
near California’s Edwards Air Force Base dramatized this point. The F-16
consistently outmaneuvered the F-35, even though two bulky drop tanks
aerodynamically disadvantaged the F-16 against the F-35 without any attached
ordinance. Compared to planes like the F-16, critics have noted that the
“notorious gas-guzzler” F-35 also has limited range.
Whatever capabilities the F-35 does have often remained grounded, for the “F-35
is a hanger queen,” as McFate has noted. The F-35 still struggles to meet its
goal mission-capable rate, the percentage of aircraft that can fulfill at least
one mission. As of January, only 69 percent of F-35s meet this goal, while the
military has a longstanding 80 percent goal.
Grazier has examined the inherent challenges stealth capabilities present in
repairing a plane like the F-35. “It takes much longer to make some repairs to
stealth aircraft because it takes time to remove low-observable materials, fix
what is broken, and then repair the stealth skin.” For example, some F-35
adhesives for stealth materials can take a full week to completely dry.
The F-35s advanced systems have also suffered from numerous software bugs, as
the F-35 has eight million lines of code, more than six times the F-18, an
“inviting target for enemy cyber-warriors,” Grazier has noted. In addition,
F-35s maintenance and logistics software has 24 million code lines, which
enabled numerous failures in the F-35s Autonomic Logistics Information System.
In 2020 the Pentagon scrapped ALIS and committed $500 million to build its
replacement, the Operational Data Integrated Network.
The F-35 has suffered numerous other woes, like its own engine afterburners
inflicting melting damage. “Nearly every time the engineers solve one problem, a
new one is discovered. The F-35 still has 871 unresolved deficiencies, only two
fewer than last year,” Grazier reported in March on a plane that was supposed to
be operational in 2012. “As the F-35 enters its twentieth year, program
officials have delayed the important full-rate production milestone
indefinitely” and the F-35 “remains in every official sense nothing more than a
massively expensive prototype.” Corresponding to this “complete boondoggle,”
Christopher Miller, acting defense secretary in the final days of the Trump
administration, called the F-35 “a piece of …”
Now Air Force leaders have “all but admitted what critics have been saying for
many years,” recently noted Forbes magazine aviation analyst David Axe. The F-35
“is too expensive and unreliable for hard, day-to-day use” in America’s various
military branches. While the Air Force has purchased 250 F-35s, it is now
considering other alternatives to replacing about 1,000 aging F-16s, like a new
lightweight fighter.
The recent delivery of the first F-15EX, an updated version of this fighter
introduced in 1976, to the Air Force indicates current American airpower
thinking. In a technological “high-low mix” the F-35 would fill strategic niche
roles with its high technologies while less sophisticated, often older aircraft
designs would remain airpower workhorses. “You don’t drive your Ferrari to work
every day, you only drive it on Sundays,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles
Brown Jr. recently stated. The F-35 “is our ‘high end’ [fighter], we want to
make sure we don’t use it all for the low-end fight.” Along with other F-35
users, the UAE will have to strike similar balances in a dangerous world.
Biden Acknowledges the Armenian Genocide;
What of Other, Current Genocides?
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/April 29/2021
To his credit, Joe Biden has become the first sitting president formally to
acknowledge the Armenian Genocide since it occurred over a century ago. On
Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, April 24, 2021, the American president issued
a statement opening with the following words:
Each year on this day, we remember the lives of all those who died in the
Ottoman-era Armenian genocide and recommit ourselves to preventing such an
atrocity from ever again occurring. Beginning on April 24, 1915, with the arrest
of Armenian intellectuals and community leaders in Constantinople by Ottoman
authorities, one and a half million Armenians were deported, massacred, or
marched to their deaths in a campaign of extermination.
Along with the 1.5 million Armenians, the Turks exterminated more than another
one million Christians—including 750,000 Greeks and 300,000 Assyrians, as
underscored by Congress’s Resolution 296. Passed in 2019, it acknowledges “the
campaign of genocide against Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians, Chaldeans, Syriacs,
Arameans, Maronites, and other Christians.” As the Guardian recently noted, “The
slaughter is widely viewed as a crime on a monumental scale – and a grim
precursor to the Nazi Holocaust.”
Successive Turkish regimes have vehemently denied that any genocide took place;
all deaths, they claim, were uncalculated byproducts of war. Similarly, due to
its status as a NATO ally—a status which has greatly soured in recent
years—successive U.S. presidents failed to acknowledge Turkey’s role: Ronald
Reagan passingly referred to the Armenian Genocide though without formally
acknowledging it. George H. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump
never formally acknowledged it. When he was running for president in 2008,
Barack Obama professed his
firmly held conviction that the Armenian Genocide is not an allegation, a
personal opinion, or a point of view, but rather a widely documented fact
supported by an overwhelming body of historical evidence. The facts are
undeniable…. [A]s President I will recognize the Armenian Genocide…. America
deserves a leader who speaks truthfully about the Armenian Genocide and responds
forcefully to all genocides. I intend to be that president.
Obama reneged on his word—including on the Armenian Genocide’s 100th
anniversary, which passed under his tenure.
Accordingly, Joe Biden is to be commended for being the first U.S. president to
acknowledge the genocide.
An even more laudable next step would be to acknowledge the current genocides
and hate speech fueling them—and take steps against them, as Biden said he would
in his recent April 24 statement recognizing the Armenian Genocide:
Today, as we mourn what was lost, let us also turn our eyes to the future—toward
the world that we wish to build for our children. A world unstained by the daily
evils of bigotry and intolerance, where human rights are respected, and where
all people are able to pursue their lives in dignity and security.
Meanwhile, Turkey is all but spearheading a new genocide against Armenians, most
recently in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, which again erupted
into armed conflict in late 2020. Turkey sponsored and transported Islamic
terrorists to the disputed region, where they committed horrific atrocities
against Armenians and their places of worship, including by such as “tortur[ing]
beyond recognition” an intellectually disabled 58-year-old Armenian woman by
hacking off her ears, hands, and feet—before murdering her. Her family was only
able to identify her by her clothes.
As Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s prime minister, observed in October 2020: “Why has
Turkey returned to the South Caucasus 100 years [after the dissolution of the
Ottoman Empire]? To continue the Armenian Genocide.”
Even inside Turkey, hate speech against Armenians predominates, and begins in
public school. Every day Turks—men and women—regularly and openly profess their
greatest desire is to decapitate Armenians.
Turkey is, moreover, far from the only Muslim nation engaged in “daily evils of
bigotry and intolerance,” which we need to “remain ever vigilant against,” to
quote Biden. What several international organizations have referred to as a
“genocide” of Christians at the hands of Muslims is currently taking place in
Nigeria—as well as in Mozambique, South Sudan, and other sub-Saharan nations—and
in dire need of being acknowledged so that efforts at rectifying the situation
can begin.
Several more examples of other nations currently engaged in genocides appear
here.
In his statement, Biden said, “[W]e remember so that we remain ever-vigilant
against the corrosive influence of hate in all its forms…. We do this not to
cast blame but to ensure that what happened is never repeated.”
Unfortunately, all of this is happening again, and at an alarming rate. As one
example, 340 million Christians around the world—especially the Islamic
world—are currently experiencing serious persecution. As commendable as it is
for Biden to have recognized the Armenian Genocide, turning his attention to
those who are currently experiencing hate and genocide would be far more
practical—it would save lives—than acknowledging history.
To know what happens when presidents hinder
state affairs, ask Lebanon and Tunisia
Mohammad Krishan/MEM/April 29/2021
In Lebanon, they have been waiting for six months; in Tunisia it's three months.
The Lebanese are waiting for a new government, while the Tunisians are waiting
for eleven new ministers to assume their duties after being given parliament's
approval. Lebanon has not benefitted from a government, and Tunisia has not
benefitted from its new ministers. The responsibility lies with the same office
of state in both countries: the president.
If you speak to President Michel Aoun's supporters in Lebanon and those aligned
with him about this situation, they will give you details of the merits of his
actions. If you speak to President Kais Saied's supporters in Tunisia they will
do likewise. The result is the same in both countries: an unnatural waiting
period that has hindered state affairs and increased their weakness in the face
of an economic crisis and critical healthcare situation due to the coronavirus
pandemic.
Despite the importance of the arguments that Aoun's and Saied's supporters can
present to justify their positions, we must look at the consequences. These
confirm that what is happening in Lebanon and Tunisia is state paralysis that
can only worsen the situation in both countries due to the stubbornness of two
men who each think that they are the conscience of the nation and the most
capable of finding the right solutions.
All states have their own laws and regulations, without which it is meaningless
to use the word state to describe the institutions and structures that exist.
When we say that a person is a statesman, we basically mean that this individual
is characterised by awareness, prudence and broad-mindedness that makes them
able, at certain critical moments, to distinguish between personal desires and
the interests of the state. Not only this, but that this individual has the
determination that allows them to resolve manners without hesitation in favour
of the state, even if they suffer personally or appear to be the party backing
down before their opponents.
So far, neither Aoun nor Saied seem to have such qualities, which suggests that
matters may not make much progress in the immediate future, unless they come
under international pressure that they cannot handle. If this happens — and
nothing is certain — then the "concession" they will make will lose them any
gains that they had made had they gone ahead on their own accord and in
consideration of the greater good of the country, not because of foreign
pressure that only makes the state more dependent on others and less in control
of its own decisions. We must not forget, though, that there may also be foreign
pressure in the other direction pushing Aoun and Saied to stand their ground for
the benefit of who knows whom or what.
France has gone through three such periods, known as "cohabitation", when the
president was forced to "live" in the same "apartment of government" with a
prime minister who was not in agreement with him and did not belong to the same
party. This was the case between President Francois Mitterrand (left wing) and
Prime Minister Jacques Chirac (right wing) from 1986 to 1988; between Mitterrand
and Edouard Balladur (right wing) from 1993 to 1995; and from 1997 to 2002
between the then President Chirac and Lionel Jospin (left wing). Chirac went
through the experience from both sides of the fence.
The conclusion at the time was that despite the obstacles and sensitivities,
political and state progress was made because the sense of the supremacy of the
state, the spirit of the republic and the rule of law were what decided matters,
not the whims of the individuals involved. Unfortunately, such a spirit exists
in neither Lebanon nor Tunisia; it requires decades to establish and requires a
different sort of individual.
Michel Aoun is a military officer who had a tumultuous short experience as head
of a military government formed in the final moments of President Amin Gemayel's
term in September 1988 before he fled to France where he lived in exile for
fifteen years. Returning to Lebanon in 2005, he became an MP. In 2016 he was
endorsed by Hezbollah, among others, and became president, as he had always
wanted.
As for Kais Saied, before the 2011 revolution he was not known for any political
or organisational activity. He was not known for any opinion or activity in
support of democracy or denouncing tyranny during the era of the late President
Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Saied found himself known thanks to his television
appearances, before becoming a presidential candidate and then president so
easily that some people are still trying to get to the bottom of how it
happened.
During the rule of the late President Beji Caid Essebsi, Tunisia experienced a
similar situation as that being faced now. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, who
also came from nowhere to take office, made a cabinet reshuffle, which the
president did not approve of but did not block, despite his personal bitterness
towards Chahed, who went from friend to foe, and despite some incitement to
block the reshuffle. Essebsi exposed this incitement himself when he said that
he couldn't make such a move and that the interest of the state was above all
else. The funny thing here is that Kais Saied, a citizen and professor of
constitutional law at the time, supported him in this. Perhaps he has forgotten
what happened then, but we haven't.
*This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Quds Al-Arabi on 27 April 2021
Biden's Border
Chris Farrell/Gatestone Institute/April 29/2021
The surge of unaccompanied children and families to the southern border -- as
well as the surge of non-marijuana drug trafficking across the border -- is a
humanitarian crisis, a health crisis and a national security crisis.
The Biden administration has ordered the termination of all work. Construction
sites and crews are, essentially, idle -- at the reported cost of more than $1
million dollars per day in Cochise County, Arizona alone. It is costing $1
million taxpayer dollars per day -- meaning more than $100 million so far for
just one site -- to figure out how, exactly, to unwind the half-completed
construction project .....
While you are considering the human and dollar costs of Biden's "children in
cages," consider the construction sites and equipment staged in remote areas, or
the drug loads packed into Chevy Suburbans, stripped of everything in the
interior but the driver's seat, and painted matte black for their 2AM runs north
through the dry arroyo beds into the United States.
Some of that equipment was looking for people other than illegal aliens -- other
people (terrorists) bearing ill-will towards the United States. The radiological
detection devices? Gone. The license plate readers and recorders? Gone.
Mexico is an utterly corrupt, failed narco-state. The "best" thing Mexico has
going for it is the "efficiency" of the drug cartels.... Perhaps Biden's border
legacy will be another type of 9/11 attack, launched across his now virtually
non-existent border with Mexico?
Just west of Naco, Arizona, former President Trump's 30-foot border wall runs
through the desert and begins to ascend through the Coronado National Memorial
and into the Huachuca Mountains – until it doesn't. Work was not completed. The
Biden administration has ordered the termination of all work. Construction sites
and crews are, essentially, idle – at the reported cost of over $1 million
dollars per day in Cochise County, Arizona alone. Pictured: Idle equipment at a
wall construction base in Cochise County. (Image source: Chris Farrell)
The surge of unaccompanied children and families to the southern border -- as
well as the surge of non-marijuana drug trafficking across the border -- is a
humanitarian crisis, a health crisis and a national security crisis. It all
belongs -- 100% -- to President Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr.
The illegal alien surge has been promoted and advertised for since June 28,
2019, when every single one of the Democratic presidential primary candidates
raised their hands and said they would support free health care to all illegal
immigrants in the United States. That was the first step in a cynical political
ploy to permanently replace a segment of the American electorate with "more
obedient voters from the Third World" -- while masquerading as compassion and
care.
The Biden administration's "caged children" in the facility in Donna, Texas
rightly get a lot of publicity -- but those are not the conditions along the
entire southern border with Mexico. The facts and circumstances should not be
lumped together or conflated. Naco, Arizona is not the Rio Grande Valley of
Texas. Naco has different circumstances and challenges.
Just west of Naco, former President Trump's 30-foot wall runs through the desert
and begins to ascend through the Coronado National Memorial and into the
Huachuca Mountains -- until it doesn't. Work was not completed. The Biden
administration has ordered the termination of all work. Construction sites and
crews are, essentially, idle -- at the reported cost of over $1 million dollars
per day in Cochise County, Arizona alone. It is costing $1 million taxpayer
dollars per day -- meaning more than $100 million so far for just one site -- to
figure out how, exactly, to unwind the half-completed construction project, what
to do with the supplies, equipment, debris, access roads, staging areas, water
wells and pumps, electrical conduits and sensor assemblies – the list goes on
and on. Reportedly, the Biden administration even likes some of the proposed
improvements -- but there is no way in hell they will ever agree to building
that damn "wall." Trump simply cannot be given that victory, no matter how
practical and effective it may be. No wall. No way.
In places where the wall was constructed, the Biden administration has ordered
floodgates to be left open along the San Pedro River valley in Cochise County,
Arizona. There is no reason to leave the floodgates open. Border Patrol
representatives will tell you very earnestly that the floodgates are essential
for our maintenance of the wall and to be in compliance with our treaty
obligations. Those facts are true, but they have absolutely nothing to do with
why the gates are open now. This is the driest year in living memory in Cochise
County. The San Pedro is bone dry. Grazing lands are dead brown and Martian red.
Local cattle ranchers are trucking-in hay and feed to keep their cattle from
starving. The only things moving along the San Pedro are illegal aliens and drug
smugglers. Sure, leave the gate open. It is the Biden administration now.
The point of this essay is to get across to you that the state of what little is
left of the US-Mexican border is complex. Different sectors have different
geography, different illegal alien populations seeking to cross, different drug
loads moving through the ports of entry or the vast stretches of "nothing"
in-between.
While you are considering the human and dollar costs of Biden's "children in
cages," consider the construction sites and equipment staged in remote areas, or
the drug loads packed into Chevy Suburbans, stripped of everything in the
interior but the driver's seat, and painted matte black for their 2AM runs north
through the dry arroyo beds into the United States.
On Biden's border, enforcement is a thing of the past. Border Patrol checkpoints
in places such as Arizona Highway 90 between Sierra Vista and Interstate-10 are
literally a shell of their former selves, stripped of all staff and equipment.
Some of that equipment was looking for people other than illegal aliens -- other
people (terrorists) bearing ill-will towards the United States. The radiological
detection devices? Gone. The license plate readers and recorders? Gone.
You see, border security is about more than Biden's caged children. It is more
sophisticated and complicated than that. Mexico is an utterly corrupt, failed
narco-state. The "best" thing Mexico has going for it is the "efficiency" of the
drug cartels. How utterly pathetic and dangerous is that? Perhaps Biden's border
legacy will be another type of 9/11 attack, launched across his now virtually
non-existent border with Mexico?
*Chris Farrell is a former counterintelligence case officer. For the past 20
years, he has served as the Director of Investigations & Research for Judicial
Watch. The views expressed are the author's alone, and not necessarily those of
Judicial Watch.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Turkey: How Erdogan's Pledge for Reform
Collapsed in Five Months
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/April 29/2021
"We don't see ourselves elsewhere but in Europe," Erdoğan said on November 21.
"We envisage building our future together with Europe."
According to Turkish news site Gazete Duvar, a total of 128,872 people have been
indicted in the past six years for insulting Erdoğan. Of those, 27,824 had to
stand trial and 9,556 were convicted.
Apparently, Erdoğan wants a democratic system without opposition.
But who cares about the Constitution in a country where the governing bloc is
proposing to close down even the Constitutional Court, in addition to banning
opposition parties? All these autocratic measures occurred in the less than
half-year since Erdoğan pledged democratic reforms.
A few years ago, then Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu had vehemently refuted
claims that Turkey was a second-class democracy. He was right. Turkey has since
remained a third-class democracy.
71-year-old journalist and author Ahmet Altan was released from prison in Turkey
this month. He had been unlawfully imprisoned for nearly five years, since he
was detained in 2016 over allegations that, during a TV program, he disseminated
"subliminal messages" related to a coup attempt, as well as for articles he had
written criticizing the government.
His critics often joke that when President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pledges
democratic reforms, one should run away immediately. His latest charm offensive
in November, aimed at repairing Turkey's badly-strained ties with the West and
Western institutions, has proven that the joke still holds value.
"We don't see ourselves elsewhere but in Europe," Erdoğan said on November 21.
"We envisage building our future together with Europe." Two days later, Defense
Minister Hulusi Akar described NATO as the "cornerstone of our defense and
security policy" and said that Turkey was looking forward to cooperating with
the incoming administration under Joe Biden in the United States. Erdoğan also
promised a bold package of democratic reforms.
Less than five months later, Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi had to call
Erdoğan a "dictator." That was not because an experienced European politician
wanted to insult a Muslim head of state.
According to Turkish news site Gazete Duvar, a total of 128,872 people have been
indicted in the past six years for insulting Erdoğan. Of those, 27,824 had to
stand trial and 9,556 were convicted. By comparison, only 11 Turks had been
convicted for insulting Ahmet Necdet Sezer, president between 2000 and 2007.
After Erdoğan's latest reform pledge, on March 21, Turkish authorities arrested
a pro-Kurdish opposition MP who had refused to leave parliament for several days
after his seat was revoked. Ömer Faruk Gergerlioğlu "was brought out by force
while he was in pyjamas and slippers" by "nearly 100 police officers," the
leftist Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) said in a statement.
On March 17, the Supreme Court Chief Public Prosecutor's Office filed a lawsuit
against HDP for its closure on the grounds that it has links with "terror acts."
On April 14, state prosecutors asked for the removal of the parliamentary
immunity of main opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and nine MPs from his
Republican People's Party (CHP). Apparently, Erdoğan wants a democratic system
without opposition.
This month, Europe's top human rights court ruled that the right to liberty and
freedom of expression of Turkish journalist and author Ahmet Altan had been
violated due to his detention and imprisonment on charges related to a 2016 coup
attempt. Altan, 71, has been in prison since September 2016, when he was
detained over allegations that, during a TV program, he disseminated "subliminal
messages" related to the coup attempt, as well as for articles he had written
criticizing the government. Shortly after that ruling, the Turkish Court of
Appeals released Altan. In other words, Altan had been unlawfully imprisoned for
55 months, nearly five years.
That was "normal" in a country where an army of pro-government judges has the
habit of announcing rulings in defiance of rulings from superior Turkish courts,
including the Constitutional Court, and from the European Court of Human Rights.
Those judges who dare make "undesirable verdicts" are probed and often get
disciplinary punishments. Erdoğan's coalition partner and staunchest political
ally, ultra-nationalist leader Devlet Bahçeli, has called for the closure of the
country's top judicial institution, the Constitutional Court.
On April 5, Turkish prosecutors detained 10 retired admirals over their public
criticism of Erdoğan's multi billion-dollar Istanbul canal project, which will
create a new artificial waterway from the Black Sea to the Marmara Sea, to
complement the Bosporus Strait. The arrest warrants came a day after a group of
104 former senior navy officials signed an open letter warning that the proposed
canal could harm Turkish security by invalidating an 85-year-old international
treaty (the Montreux Convention) designed to prevent militarization of the Black
Sea. Pro-Erdoğan officials and prosecutors interpreted the statement as a direct
challenge from the military to the civilian government, "echoing coup times."
The prosecutors' move is in direct breach of the Article 26 of the Turkish
Constitution:
"Everyone has the right to express and disseminate his/her thoughts and opinions
by speech, in writing or in pictures or through other media, individually or
collectively. This freedom includes the liberty of receiving or imparting
information or ideas without interference by official authorities. This
provision shall not preclude subjecting transmission by radio, television,
cinema, or similar means to a system of licensing."
But who cares about the Constitution in a country where the governing bloc is
proposing to close down even the Constitutional Court, in addition to banning
opposition parties?
All these autocratic measures occurred in the less than half-year since Erdoğan
pledged democratic reforms. But no story would be completely Turkish without an
element of black humor: Where is the $128 billion?
That sum refers to the US dollars sold by state banks to support the Turkish
lira in foreign exchange markets. The policy began around the time of the March
2019 municipal elections and was ramped up in 2020, when the pandemic laid bare
the lira's vulnerability and Turkey's reliance on external funding. Bankers have
calculated that the sales totaled $128.3 billion in 2019-20.
As government officials remain mute on the question, the main opposition CHP
recently launched a campaign to embarrass Erdoğan's ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) by hanging huge posters on CHP party buildings across
the country with the simple question: Where is the $128 billion? Not one more
word. Not one single comment or insult. Just a question, though annoying
especially at a time of economic crisis.
Turkish police started to rip down those posters without court orders. As one
prosecutor confessed in a letter to a governor, "We cannot find a legal pretext
to declare the posters illegal. You must rip them down citing administrative
reasons."
In protest, a CHP MP hung the same poster outside his office office window in
the parliament building. Parliament's administrative directors had to send a
fire truck to rip down the poster. The MP said he would hang it again.
Erdoğan's effort to hang onto power is taking uglier shapes every new day. A few
years ago, then Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu had vehemently denied claims that
Turkey was a second-class democracy. He was right. Turkey has since remained a
third-class democracy.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the
country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is
taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Those who yearn for war in Libya
Habib Lassoued/The Arab Weekly/April 29/2021
There are many who want a new war in Libya. Among them there those who do not
want the elections to be held as scheduled on December 24.
There are also those who are looking for justifications to keep the Turkish
forces and mercenaries in the country, and those who reject, not only the
presence of Field Marshal Haftar as the head of the army, but the very existence
of a national army. They want to substitute for the army a national guard that
would simply protect the borders and facilities and not interfere with the
warlords, smuggling barons, terrorist groups and those involved in corruption
and plundering of public money and the thieves of oil and budget allocations.
Despite all the talk about the political agreement that was reached and the
optimism about the arrival of the new authorities elected by the Forum for
Political Dialogue, and despite the Geneva agreement, the efforts of the Joint
Military Committee, UN Security Council decisions and the regional and
international agreements, despite of all of that, the security situation in
Libya remains fragile and the final ceasefire decision could be breached any
time. This is especially true thanks to the absence of an effective decision to
unify the military establishment, achieve reconciliation, implement a general
amnesty, release detainees as well as the prisoners of war, and return the
displaced.
Psychological and social barriers and hate speech have not diminished in
intensity. There seem to be no takers of the domestic and external calls to turn
the pages on the past, so that the process of political settlement can move
ahead.
On Monday, a cabinet meeting was scheduled in Benghazi, under the chairmanship
of the head of Government of National Unity (GNU), Abdulhamid Dbeibeh and in the
presence of the President of the Presidency Council, Muhammad al-Menfi and his
deputy from the Tripoli region, Abdullah al-Lafi.
But at the last moment, the meeting was postponed to an unspecified date. This
was not just due to the arrival of a plane at Benina airport carrying dozens of
armed militiamen who were sent to ensure the security of Dbeibeh and his
ministers. These militiamen were sent despite the fact that the authorities of
the eastern region had managed in past weeks to protect the visits of other
senior GNU officials, including of Menfi, during his visit to Benghazi and
during Dbeibeh’s own visit to Tobruk.
It is what Dbeibeh said when he spoke to a number of displaced persons from the
east of the country who were sitting in a Tripoli café. He told them that
Benghazi will return to the fold of the homeland.
Some explained that he meant to say that the city had been kidnapped by the
army. The real reason is the lack of a genuine awareness that the solution must
entail mutual recognition between all the main actors on stage.
When he met the field leaders in Tripoli and the warlords in Misrata, Debeibeh
should have set a date for meeting with Field Marshal Haftar. He is the
commander-in-chief of the military force that controls the entire eastern and
southern regions and a big part of the central region. Dbeibeh should have
sought that meeting especially since Haftar has played an important role in the
political agreement reached at the Dialogue Forum, in its Tunisian and Swiss
meetings, as testified by former UNSMIL chief Stephanie Williams herself. But
Dbeibeh’s going to Benghazi without setting a date for a meeting with Haftar,
deprived the visit of its meaning and indeed, undermined it altogether.
When Dbeibeh began to form his cabinet, he stipulated that the candidates should
be able to work in all parts of the country without exception, but he was
eventually unable to hold a meeting of his government in Benghazi. He was in
fact forced to postpone it.
This raises an important question: How will he succeed in his mandate as head of
government over all of Libya’s territory if he is not supported by the army
leadership in the east of the country, which had provided him with an adequate
security framework to obtain the confidence of Parliament in the city of Sirte,
a location controlled by Haftar’s forces?
How will he obtain this support if he does not acknowledge that leadership? What
prevents him from meeting with Haftar if he recognises it?
This is not the only issue.
A few days ago, Foreign Minister Najla Al-Manqoush spoke during a speech before
the Italian Parliament about the necessity for all foreign forces and
mercenaries to leave the country. Similar views were previously expressed at the
UN Security Council, the Arab League, the European and African Unions, by the US
government and most Western capitals and Arab countries. A regional and
international consensus was reached about this. However, the forces of political
Islam and the Turkish pressure group in Libya and abroad launched hostile
campaigns directed against the minister. The campaign reached the point of
levelling accusations of treason and apostasy. The reason for this was that she
did not exclude the Turkish intervention in her call for foreign forces to
leave, as if the Turk’s presence had become an inevitable fate or a sacred issue
beyond reproach.
It also meant that there are still people betting on war and on the continuation
of divisions, especially within the military establishment. That institution
will not move towards unification as long as there are foreign fighters who
support this or that party.
The unprecedented attack on Manqoush confirmed that there are those inside Libya
who do not want to deal with the new reality created by the UN roadmap, nor with
international developments, including the Security Council resolution announced
on April 15, under Chapter Seven, which means possible international
intervention. There is no realisation of the scope of the transformations in the
region and the world.
There are those who want to remain under the protection of the Turkish forces
and mercenaries, which means that they reject the stance of their country’s
diplomacy in line with international positions in support of the choice of
peace. It seems they desire war if they are not actually preparing for it.
The conflict has not ended in Libya, especially since there are parties that do
not realise that the battle for peace is more difficult than the conflict, and
this is why they made the cease-fire a starting point for a cold war that may
turn hot on the ground at any moment.
Some still yearn for divisions. These are members of the Muslim Brotherhood who
believe that Libya cannot accommodate them together with the army and Haftar.
They believe reconciliation may inhibit them from continuing their policy of
Islamist empowerment. These are also the regional leaders who speak with the
logic of superiority and the legitimacy of controlling the country, the warlords
who are not able to relinquish their interests, and the opportunists who do not
want the state to take root nor for sovereignty to be established nor society to
rise above the strife which has torn it apart for ten years.
Libya today needs a discourse of reason to prevail before the country is totally
shattered. It needs a spirit of positive adventure to preempt the designs of
those seeking to sabotage the political process, opposing those who would like
to overcome pain and wounds and turn over the page of the past and advance
instead the logic of a peace of the brave in order to roll back the legacy of
war and conflict.
People should not listen to the Brotherhood’s narrative which favours a
political solution only if it serves the group’s interests and achieves its
goals.
And if they do not reach their goals, Brotherhood members would be willing to
obstruct the settlement even if that leads to the fragmentation of the country.
For them a small region under their control is better than a vast country
outside of their influence.
Iran, the Competing Power Centers and Middle
Eastern Imbroglios
Charles Elias Chartouni/April 30/2021
شارل الياس شرتوني: تنافس مراكز القوى في إيران ووضع الشرق الأوسط المعقد
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/98375/98375/
The released tapes of the oral history project unveils the rifts amongst the
Iranian regime power centers and brokers, the competing political visions and
strategies, and their incidence on regional and international policy making.
Foreign minister Jawad Zarif statement reveals the internal cracks of the
Iranian regime, the dwindling influence of Ali Khamenei, and the overriding hold
of the Revolutionary Guards. He dwelt extensively on the role of Qassem
Suleimani who worked diligently on sabotaging the nuclear accord of 2015, and
expanding the scope of the Iranian destabilization strategy throughout the
Middle East, jointly with Russia and the satellite movements he created in
Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. The aim of the sabotaging strategy was to forestall the
normalization of the Iranian status within the international community, usher
the second wave of Iranian imperialism inaugurated by the nascent Islamic
revolution, undermine the likelihood of a moderate version of the ongoing
regime, and thwart the dynamics of liberalization in the Iranian civil society
which already lives in a post-Islamic era.
J.Zarif highlights the pervasiveness of these cleavages and their relationship
with the prevailing revolutionary power structure, its embryonic contradictions,
unending power struggles and inwardness, since they all revolve around the
regime’s survival. The cynical and subversive nature of the Iranian regime far
from being incidental, temporary and tendentially accommodating, reflects its
totalitarian propensities, the foreclosures and vested interests of the power
elites who controlled it from the very beginning. Power turfs and struggles are
systemic features that are hardly reformable and unlikely to yield an
alternative political culture, unless the regime implodes and gives way to
contending views and power elites. The statement of minister J. Zarif caused a
major uproar within the ruling revolutionary guard and was tantamount to
Suleimani’s assassination, since it displayed the glaring divisions and their
incidence on the regime’s future, and ability to project itself as a cohesive
actor in the nuclear negotiations. How can Iran engage the US and the
international community while unable to mend its internal rifts, feature a
united stand on regional issues, and muster support within its national
community.
The discrepancies highlighted by Foreign minister Zarif validate the
conventional perception of the Iranian regime’s reluctance to normalize, abide
by the rules of international civility, and engage consensual conflict
resolution regionally and internationally. This disclosure far from being
accidental, brings out the serious differences among the dominating oligarchs,
the depth of cultural wars within Iran, and the inability to deal with the
international community on the very basis of an undercut consensus, deception,
active insurgencies, militarization scenarios and low intensity conflicts. This
open divergence aired right before presidential election (June 18th, 2021) is
inevitably impacting its outcome, the future of negotiations, and enlightening
insofar the prospects of normalization of the Iranian regime.
The pessimistic views of minister Zarif are quite inauspicious, and sound a dire
warning on the whereabouts of a regime whose survival is the only stake that
matters. The death of Suleimani was a timely admonition which recalls the need
to sway a malevolent totalitarian dictatorship, checkmate its sabotaging
politics, sustain Iranian internal liberalization, and force a comprehensive
diplomacy. The negotiation script should preempt the segmented approach, based
on the separation between the nuclear dossier and the disruptions of Iranian
power politics throughout the Middle East, and dissipate the whims of an
international counter-order adumbrated by Khomeiny and recapitulated by
Ahmadi-Nejad and Suleimani. The subtexts of negotiations being as relevant and
decisive as their unfolding and awaited outcomes.